@ dd664d5e:5633d319

Finding Catholics and Catholic-friendly content on Nostr

Obvious Catholics being obvious

nostr:npub1m4ny6hjqzepn4rxknuq94c2gpqzr29ufkkw7ttcxyak7v43n6vvsajc2jl

nostr:npub1k92qsr95jcumkpu6dffurkvwwycwa2euvx4fthv78ru7gqqz0nrs2ngfwd

nostr:npub1wqfzz2p880wq0tumuae9lfwyhs8uz35xd0kr34zrvrwyh3kvrzuskcqsyn

nostr:npub1ecdlntvjzexlyfale2egzvvncc8tgqsaxkl5hw7xlgjv2cxs705s9qs735

nostr:npub1rcr8h76csgzhdhea4a7tq5w5gydcpg9clgf0cffu6z45rnc6yp5sj7cfuz

nostr:npub1fyd0awkakq4aap70ual7mtlszjle9krffgwnsrkyua2frzmysd8qjj8gvg

nostr:npub1q0fe26apcqeeyqnlre29fqu7ysx0ucm5ly637md3zlvy2xcfsm3s0lsv4r

nostr:npub1dvdcmtp5llrp63jdlmhspe9gffsyu9ew7cu3ld3f9y7k79nxzjxqf4d4rm

nostr:npub1paxyej8f8fh57ny0fr5w2mzp9can9nkcmeu5jaerv68mhrah7t8s795ky6

nostr:npub1tvw3h5xqnuc2aq5zelxp3dy58sz7x9u8e6enkxywmrz70cg2j2zqjes44n

nostr:npub13tahtl9pjw9u5ycruqk84k6sfmkyljsr7y2pc4s840ctlm73fxeq3j6e08

nostr:npub1w4jkwspqn9svwnlrw0nfg0u2yx4cj6yfmp53ya4xp7r24k7gly4qaq30zp

Other good Christian follows

nostr:npub1hqy4zwnvsdmlml4tpgp0kgrruxamfcwpgm4g3q2tr3d2ut3kuxusx73psm

nostr:npub1cpstx8lzhwctunfe80rugz5qsj9ztw8surec9j6mf8phha68dj6qhm8j5e

nostr:npub1ak5kewf6anwkrt0qc8ua907ljkn7wm83e2ycyrpcumjvaf2upszs8r0gwg

nostr:npub1mt8x8vqvgtnwq97sphgep2fjswrqqtl4j7uyr667lyw7fuwwsjgs5mm7cz

nostr:npub1q6ya7kz84rfnw6yjmg5kyttuplwpauv43a9ug3cajztx4g0v48eqhtt3sh

nostr:npub1356t6fpjysx9vdchfg7mryv83w4pcye6a3eeke9zvsje7s2tuv4s4k805u

nostr:npub1kun5628raxpm7usdkj62z2337hr77f3ryrg9cf0vjpyf4jvk9r9smv3lhe

nostr:npub1qf6gsfapq94rj0rcptkpm9sergacmuwrjlgfx5gznjajtvkcx3psfhx6k5

nostr:npub1ll99fcrclkvgff696u8tq9vupw9fulfc8fysdf6gfwp7hassrh2sktxszt

nostr:npub1zy37ecnhpvx4lmxh4spd0898sxdj0ag8m64s9yq499zaxlg7qrqq8c53q6

nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs

nostr:npub1jlrs53pkdfjnts29kveljul2sm0actt6n8dxrrzqcersttvcuv3qdjynqn

nostr:npub18zqmath26txwfhc70af8axk7pftjre9x7cf0lxkg92nvj2cpfgts8va790

Christian follow list

An exhaustive list of Christians is maintained by nostr:npub1mt8x8vqvgtnwq97sphgep2fjswrqqtl4j7uyr667lyw7fuwwsjgs5mm7cz. Just look at his list on https://listr.lol/

Catholic community

You can also join the community, to reach other catholics (usable on #Nostrudel #Coracle #Amethyst and #Satellite): nostr:naddr1qvzqqqyx7cpzqqnd3dl8hnptg9agfugwmdcmgfl7wcrfjpgfpv28ksq6dnmqc0e8qqyyxct5dphkc6trmu6k9l

Christian topic relay

And always make sure to use the #catholic hashtag, to get onto the top-specific christpill relay (add it to your relay list: wss://christpill.nostr1.com/).

Hope that helps! 😊

@ 58537364:705b4b85

People often only realize the value of something in two situations: First, before they have it. Second, after they’ve lost it.

This is a tragedy that happens to many. People may have good things in their lives, but they don’t see their worth— because they’re always looking outward, focusing on what they don’t have, wishing for something else.

It’s similar to Aesop’s fable about the dog and the piece of meat. We probably remember it from childhood: A dog had a big piece of meat in its mouth. Delighted, it ran to a quiet place where it could enjoy the meat in peace.

At one point, it had to cross a bridge. Looking down into the stream below, it saw its reflection— but mistook it for another dog with an even bigger piece of meat. It wanted that bigger piece badly, so it opened its mouth to snatch it— and the meat in its own mouth fell into the water. The reflection disappeared too.

In the end, it lost both.

So, if we learn to value what we already have, happiness comes easily. It might not be possessions or people— it might simply be our health.

It could be as simple as our breath, the ability to breathe normally, to walk around freely, to see, to hear.

Many people already have these things but don’t recognize their value. They don’t feel lucky. Instead, they focus on what they still lack— no house, no car, no money— and feel miserable.

They ask, “Why is life so hard for me?” Even though they have so many good things already— health, normalcy, freedom of movement— they fail to see it, because their minds are lost in chasing what they don’t yet have, which belongs to the future.

If we turn back and learn to value what we already possess, and stop obsessing over what we don’t, we can find happiness more easily.

This is one of the meanings of “Doing your best in the present.”

…

Doing Your Best in the Present by Phra Paisal Visalo

@ 9223d2fa:b57e3de7

2,143 steps

@ 7e538978:a5987ab6

Introduction

Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) is a powerful open protocol built on Nostr that enables a connection between Bitcoin Lightning wallets and applications—offering strong privacy, user control, easy connection, open interoperability, and support for a wide range of use cases without needing port forwarding or other network configuration. It allows a user to use many different Lightning apps with their own Lightning node via NWC.

In this post, we’ll give an overview of NWC as well as how to use a home-hosted LNbits instance as a private funding source for a public LNbits instance—giving you the benefits of privacy, control, and simplicity, to unleash the full power of LNbits.

Why Self-host with NWC?

• Privacy: Keep your Lightning node and LNbits instance at home, within your own network.
• Ownership & Control: Retain full custody of your funds, with no third-parties.
• Security: No port forwarding or VPN required—your node is not accessible from the public internet.
• Simplicity: Easy to set up and maintain.
• Flexible Funding: Fund your clearnet LNbits with any NWC-capable service—including your own LNbits instance, Alby, Minibits, Coinos, and more.
• App Access: Use LNbits at home as a Lightning wallet for one of the many NWC compatible apps.

How It Works

Your home Lightning node (running Raspiblitz, Umbrel, Start9, MyNode or one of the many other node packages) runs LNbits. You enable the NWCProvider extension in LNbits and generate a connection string.

On your clearnet LNbits instance (hosted with the LNbits SaaS or on your own VPS), set this connection string as your funding source.

This lets you:

• Fund and use LNbits from anywhere
• Keep your node private
• Add or change funding sources at any time with minimal config

How To Set It Up

1. Install LNbits at Home

Use a Raspiblitz, MyNode, Umbrel or other node package to run your home LNbits instance. You can also build your own node with Phoenixd and LNbits or any other combination of LNbits and Lightning node software.

• Enable the NWCProvider extension

• Create a new NWC connection

• Copy the NWC connection string

2. Provision a Clearnet LNbits Instance

Use:

• LNbits SaaS
• Your own VPS on a VPS provider like Vultr, Linode, AWC EC2 and install LNbits

---

3. Connect via NWC

On your clearnet LNbits instance:

• Go to Settings → Funding

• Select "Nostr Wallet Connect"

• Paste your copied NWC connection string

• Click Save, then Restart Server

---

Done! 🎉 Your clearnet LNbits instance is now funded by your home Lightning node—no open ports, no VPN, no fuss.

Home Nodes

You can use this setup with any LNbits-compatible home Lightning node, including:

• Raspiblitz
• Start9
• Umbrel
• MyNode
• Your own home server box with LNbits plus any other Lightning funding source for example Phoenixd, Core-Lightning, LND, etc.

Try it Out

Want to try this yourself?

• 🧠 Enjoy control, privacy, and simplicity
• 🌍 Use LNbits on the clearnet with funding from your own node
• 🔌 Connect apps like Alby, Minibits, Coinos, or your own LNbits

🚀 Run LNbits

Start exploring the power of NWC and LNbits today:

• 🌐 Use the LNbits SaaS
• 🧰 Self-host
• 💬 Join the LNbits community on Telegram

NWC Apps

Here are some great apps that make use of NWC.

• Alby Go
• A lightning wallet that uses one or many NWC providers to make and receive lightning payments
• Damus
• Decentralised social app on Nostr
• Amethyst
• Android Nostr social media client client
• Clean interface, popular among mobile users
• Snort
• Web-based Nostr client
• Familiar UI, easy access via browser
• Stacker News
• Bitcoin-centric news/discussion site
• Earn sats via upvotes
• Zeus
• Mobile app for controlling your own Lightning node
• Favoured by self-custody and privacy-focused users

Resources

• 🔗 Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC)
• ☁️ LNbits SaaS
• 🛠️ LNbits GitHub
• 📘 Phoenixd on GitHub
• 💬 Telegram Community

@ 6e64b83c:94102ee8

How to Run Your Own Nostr Relay on Android with Cloudflare Domain

Prerequisites

1. Install Citrine on your Android device:
2. Visit https://github.com/greenart7c3/Citrine/releases
3. Download the latest release using:
   • zap.store
   • Obtainium
   • F-Droid
   • Or download the APK directly

4. Note: You may need to enable "Install from Unknown Sources" in your Android settings

5. Domain Requirements:

6. Purchase a domain if you don't have one

7. Transfer your domain to Cloudflare if it's not already there (for free SSL certificates and cloudflared support)

8. Tools to use:

9. nak (the nostr army knife):
   • Download from https://github.com/fiatjaf/nak/releases
   • Installation steps:

   • For Linux/macOS: ```bash # Download the appropriate version for your system wget https://github.com/fiatjaf/nak/releases/latest/download/nak-linux-amd64 # for Linux # or wget https://github.com/fiatjaf/nak/releases/latest/download/nak-darwin-amd64 # for macOS

     # Make it executable chmod +x nak-*

     # Move to a directory in your PATH sudo mv nak-* /usr/local/bin/nak - For Windows:batch # Download the Windows version curl -L -o nak.exe https://github.com/fiatjaf/nak/releases/latest/download/nak-windows-amd64.exe

     # Move to a directory in your PATH (e.g., C:\Windows) move nak.exe C:\Windows\nak.exe - Verify installation:bash nak --version ```

Setting Up Citrine

1. Open the Citrine app
2. Start the server
3. You'll see it running on ws://127.0.0.1:4869 (local network only)
4. Go to settings and paste your npub into "Accept events signed by" inbox and press the + button. This prevents others from publishing events to your personal relay.

Installing Required Tools

1. Install Termux from Google Play Store
2. Open Termux and run:

bash pkg update && pkg install wget wget https://github.com/cloudflare/cloudflared/releases/latest/download/cloudflared-linux-arm64.deb dpkg -i cloudflared-linux-arm64.deb

Cloudflare Authentication

1. Run the authentication command: bash cloudflared tunnel login
2. Follow the instructions:
3. Copy the provided URL to your browser
4. Log in to your Cloudflare account
5. If the URL expires, copy it again after logging in

Creating the Tunnel

1. Create a new tunnel: bash cloudflared tunnel create <TUNNEL_NAME>
2. Choose any name you prefer for your tunnel

3. Copy the tunnel ID after creating the tunnel

4. Create and configure the tunnel config: bash touch ~/.cloudflared/config.yml nano ~/.cloudflared/config.yml

5. Add this configuration (replace the placeholders with your values): ```yaml tunnel: credentials-file: /data/data/com.termux/files/home/.cloudflared/.json ingress:

6. hostname: nostr.yourdomain.com service: ws://localhost:4869
7. service: http_status:404 ```
8. Note: In nano editor:
   • CTRL+O and Enter to save
   • CTRL+X to exit

9. Note: Check the credentials file path in the logs

10. Validate your configuration: bash cloudflared tunnel validate

11. Start the tunnel: bash cloudflared tunnel run my-relay

Preventing Android from Killing the Tunnel

Run these commands to maintain tunnel stability: bash date && apt install termux-tools && termux-setup-storage && termux-wake-lock echo "nameserver 1.1.1.1" > $PREFIX/etc/resolv.conf

Tip: You can open multiple Termux sessions by swiping from the left edge of the screen while keeping your tunnel process running.

Updating Your Outbox Model Relays

Once your relay is running and accessible via your domain, you'll want to update your relay list in the Nostr network. This ensures other clients know about your relay and can connect to it.

Decoding npub (Public Key)

Private keys (nsec) and public keys (npub) are encoded in bech32 format, which includes: - A prefix (like nsec1, npub1 etc.) - The encoded data - A checksum

This format makes keys: - Easy to distinguish - Hard to copy incorrectly

However, most tools require these keys in hexadecimal (hex) format.

To decode an npub string to its hex format:

bash nak decode nostr:npub1dejts0qlva8mqzjlrxqkc2tmvs2t7elszky5upxaf3jha9qs9m5q605uc4

Change it with your own npub.

bash { "pubkey": "6e64b83c1f674fb00a5f19816c297b6414bf67f015894e04dd4c657e94102ee8" }

Copy the pubkey value in quotes.

Create a kind 10002 event with your relay list:

• Include your new relay with write permissions
• Include other relays you want to read from and write to, omit 3rd parameter to make it both read and write

Example format:

json { "kind": 10002, "tags": [ ["r", "wss://your-relay-domain.com", "write"], ["r", "wss://eden.nostr.land/"], ["r", "wss://nos.lol/"], ["r", "wss://nostr.bitcoiner.social/"], ["r", "wss://nostr.mom/"], ["r", "wss://relay.primal.net/"], ["r", "wss://nostr.wine/", "read"], ["r", "wss://relay.damus.io/"], ["r", "wss://relay.nostr.band/"], ["r", "wss://relay.snort.social/"] ], "content": "" }

Save it to a file called event.json

Note: Add or remove any relays you want. To check your existing 10002 relays: - Visit https://nostr.band/?q=by%3Anpub1dejts0qlva8mqzjlrxqkc2tmvs2t7elszky5upxaf3jha9qs9m5q605uc4+++kind%3A10002 - nostr.band is an indexing service, it probably has your relay list. - Replace npub1xxx in the URL with your own npub - Click "VIEW JSON" from the menu to see the raw event - Or use the nak tool if you know the relays bash nak req -k 10002 -a <your-pubkey> wss://relay1.com wss://relay2.com

Replace `<your-pubkey>` with your public key in hex format (you can get it using `nak decode <your-npub>`)

1. Sign and publish the event:
2. Use a Nostr client that supports kind 10002 events
3. Or use the nak command-line tool: bash nak event --sec ncryptsec1... wss://relay1.com wss://relay2.com $(cat event.json)

Important Security Notes: 1. Never share your nsec (private key) with anyone 2. Consider using NIP-49 encrypted keys for better security 3. Never paste your nsec or private key into the terminal. The command will be saved in your shell history, exposing your private key. To clear the command history: - For bash: use history -c - For zsh: use fc -W to write history to file, then fc -p to read it back - Or manually edit your shell history file (e.g., ~/.zsh_history or ~/.bash_history) 4. if you're using zsh, use fc -p to prevent the next command from being saved to history 5. Or temporarily disable history before running sensitive commands:

bash unset HISTFILE nak key encrypt ... set HISTFILE

How to securely create NIP-49 encypted private key

```bash

Read your private key (input will be hidden)

read -s SECRET

Read your password (input will be hidden)

read -s PASSWORD

encrypt command

echo "$SECRET" | nak key encrypt "$PASSWORD"

copy and paste the ncryptsec1 text from the output

read -s ENCRYPTED nak key decrypt "$ENCRYPTED"

clear variables from memory

unset SECRET PASSWORD ENCRYPTED ```

On a Windows command line, to read from stdin and use the variables in nak commands, you can use a combination of set /p to read input and then use those variables in your command. Here's an example:

```bash @echo off set /p "SECRET=Enter your secret key: " set /p "PASSWORD=Enter your password: "

echo %SECRET%| nak key encrypt %PASSWORD%

:: Clear the sensitive variables set "SECRET=" set "PASSWORD=" ```

If your key starts with ncryptsec1, the nak tool will securely prompt you for a password when using the --sec parameter, unless the command is used with a pipe < > or |.

bash nak event --sec ncryptsec1... wss://relay1.com wss://relay2.com $(cat event.json)

1. Verify the event was published:
2. Check if your relay list is visible on other relays

3. Use the nak tool to fetch your kind 10002 events: bash nak req -k 10002 -a <your-pubkey> wss://relay1.com wss://relay2.com

4. Testing your relay:

5. Try connecting to your relay using different Nostr clients
6. Verify you can both read from and write to your relay
7. Check if events are being properly stored and retrieved
8. Tip: Use multiple Nostr clients to test different aspects of your relay

Note: If anyone in the community has a more efficient method of doing things like updating outbox relays, please share your insights in the comments. Your expertise would be greatly appreciated!

@ 58537364:705b4b85

พระอาจารย์ไพศาล วิสาโล วัดป่าสุคะโต แสดงธรรมเย็นวันที่ 28 กันยายน 2565

ที่ประเทศจีนเมื่อสัก 100 - 200 ปีก่อน ชายคนหนึ่งตาบอด แต่ก็สามารถใช้ชีวิตได้ตามปกติ วันหนึ่งก็เดินไปเยี่ยมเพื่อน ซึ่งอยู่ในเมืองเดียวกัน แต่ก็เดินไกลสักหน่อย แล้วชายตาบอดคนนี้ก็เดินได้โดยที่ไม่ต้องใช้ไม้เท้า ถึงบ้านเพื่อนก็สนทนากับเพื่อนหลายเรื่องหลายราว คุยกันถูกคอ จนกระทั่งค่ำ ก็ได้เวลาที่ชายตาบอดจะกลับบ้าน แต่ก่อนที่แกจะเดินออกจากบ้าน เพื่อนก็ยื่นโคมให้ โคมนี่เป็นคนที่จุดไฟให้แสงสว่างในเวลากลางคืน

ชายตาบอดก็บอกว่าฉันไม่ต้องใช้โคมหรอก เดินได้โดยที่ไม่เห็นอะไร ไม่ต้องใช้แสงสว่างก็เดินได้ ทางเส้นนี้ฉันก็คุ้นแล้ว เพื่อนก็บอกว่าที่ให้โคมนี่ ก็เพื่อเวลาคุณเดินกลับบ้านตามตรอกซอกซอย มันจะได้ให้แสงสว่าง คนที่เขาเดินสวนคุณมา เขาเห็นทาง เขาก็จะได้ไม่เดินชนคุณไงล่ะ เหตุผลนี้ก็ทำให้ชายตาบอดถือโคมกลับบ้าน ทั้งๆ ที่ตัวเองไม่จำเป็นต้องใช้โคมนั้นเลย

ระหว่างที่เดินกลับบ้านก็มีคนหลายคนเดินสวน เพราะมันเป็นตรอกซอกซอยที่มีคนเดินผ่านไปผ่านมาอยู่ แต่ว่าพอเดินมาพักหนึ่ง ปรากฏว่ามีผู้ชายคนหนึ่งเดินชนชายตาบอดอย่างแรงเลย จนล้มเลย ชายตาบอดก็โกรธมาก ก็พูดขึ้นมาว่าแกตาบอดหรือไง แกไม่เห็นหรือโคมที่ฉันถือนี่ ชายคนที่เดินชนชายตาบอดก็บอกว่าขอโทษครับ ขอโทษจริงๆ แต่โคมที่พี่จุดนี่มันดับไปนานแล้วนะ เรื่องก็จบเท่านี้นะ ฟังแล้วเราได้แง่คิดอะไรไหม

เรื่องนี้อาจจะเป็นนิทานนะ แต่มันไม่ใช่นิทานประเภทว่าสอน บอกเราในตอนท้ายว่านิทานเรื่องนี้สอนอะไร แต่ว่ามันจบลงโดยให้เราคิดเอง ฟังเรื่องนี้แล้วเราได้แง่คิดอะไร

แง่คิดอย่างหนึ่งก็คือว่าในการดำเนินชีวิตของคนเรา เราควรจะคิดถึงคนอื่นด้วย ของบางอย่างเราไม่จำเป็น แต่ว่ามันมีประโยชน์กับคนอื่น ถ้าเรานึกถึงคนอื่น มันก็ไม่ใช่ประโยชน์กับคนอื่นอย่างเดียว มันเป็นประโยชน์กับเราด้วย อย่างชายตาบอด เขาไม่จำเป็นต้องใช้โคมเลย ในการเดินกลับบ้านยามค่ำคืน แต่เพื่อนคะยั้นคะยอให้ถือโคมเพื่ออะไร ก็เพื่อประโยชน์ของคนอื่นที่เขาตาดี แล้วเขาต้องใช้แสงสว่างในการเดินสัญจร

การที่ชายตาบอดถือโคม ไม่ได้เพื่อประโยชน์ของตัวเอง แต่เพื่อประโยชน์ของคนอื่น แต่สุดท้ายมันก็เป็นประโยชน์กับตัวเอง เพราะถ้าหากว่าคนที่เขาเดินสวนมา เขาเห็นชายตาบอดถือโคม เขาก็ไม่เดินชน ฉะนั้นทีแรกชายตาบอดก็เดินได้สะดวกสบาย ไม่มีใครชน ก็เพราะว่าคนอื่นเขาเห็นแสงสว่างจากโคมนั้น

อันนี้เขาสอนว่าคนเราควรจะนึกถึงผู้อื่น ของบางอย่างแม้เราไม่จำเป็น แต่ว่ามันเป็นประโยชน์กับผู้อื่นก็ควรทำ หรือบางอย่างอาจจะไม่สะดวกกับเรา แต่ว่ามันช่วยคนอื่นได้ อย่างเช่นการถือโคม มันคงไม่สะดวกสบายเท่ากับเดินตัวเปล่า แต่ว่าเมื่อเดินถือโคมแล้ว มันก็เป็นประโยชน์กับคนที่เดินสวนมาด้วย แต่สุดท้ายมันก็กลับมาเป็นประโยชน์กับชายตาบอดนั่นเอง อย่างที่พูดไปแล้ว ไม่มีใครมาเดินชน

ในชีวิตของคนเรา เราควรจะคิดถึงคนอื่น ฉะนั้นการที่สังคมหรือบ้านเมืองมันน่าอยู่ ก็เพราะผู้คนไม่ได้คิดถึงแต่ตัวเองอย่างเดียว การกระทำบางอย่าง เราทำเพื่อประโยชน์ของส่วนรวม เพื่อผู้อื่น ยกตัวอย่างง่ายๆ เวลาเรากินอะไร มันมีขยะอยู่ในมือ จะเป็นถุงพลาสติก จะเป็นนมกล่อง หรือจะเป็นขวด ขวดน้ำที่กลายเป็นขยะเรียบร้อยแล้ว ทำไมเราควรจะถือขยะนั้นไว้กับตัว จนกว่าจะเห็นถังขยะจึงหย่อนลงถังขยะ

ที่จริงถ้าเรานึกถึงแต่ตัวเอง เราก็แค่โยนมันทิ้งขยะนั้นข้างทาง สบายดีนะ หลายคนก็ทำอย่างนั้น คนเราถ้าคิดถึงแต่ตัวเอง เราไม่เก็บมันไว้กับตัว แล้วก็รอจนกว่าจะเดินเห็นถังขยะ แต่คนจำนวนมากเขาก็เก็บขยะเอาไว้ เพื่อที่จะไปทิ้งลงในถังขยะ

อันนี้เพราะอะไร เพราะนึกถึงผู้อื่น นึกถึงคนที่เก็บขยะบ้าง หรือนึกถึงสังคมส่วนรวม ว่าถ้าเราทิ้งขยะไม่เป็นที่ มันก็จะเลอะเทอะ ไม่น่าดู บางคนก็คิดถึงพนักงานเก็บขยะ หรือคิดถึงพนักงานทำความสะอาด ก็เลยช่วยเขาด้วยการทิ้งขยะเป็นที่ ทั้งที่ถ้าทิ้งข้างทาง กินเสร็จ ดื่มน้ำเสร็จ ดูดนมกล่องเสร็จ ทิ้งไปเลยนี่มันสบายกว่า แต่เป็นเพราะเราคิดถึงคนอื่น เราจึงเอาไปทิ้งเป็นที่

หรือการปิดไฟ บางทีเราก็เห็นไฟเปิดอยู่ที่ห้องน้ำ หรือที่ห้องที่โล่ง เราก็อุตส่าห์เดินไป แทนที่เราจะกลับบ้านเลย เราก็เดินไปที่ห้องน้ำเพื่อที่จะปิดสวิตช์ไฟ เรายอมเสียเวลาเพื่ออะไร ก็เพื่อส่วนรวม หรืออาจจะเป็นเพราะว่าเราอยากจะช่วยพนักงานที่เขาดูแลสถานที่นั้น ไม่ต้องเหนื่อยกับการวิ่งการเดินตามปิดไฟ ที่วัดเราเป็นระเบียบ ก็เพราะผู้คนจำนวนมากคิดถึงผู้อื่นด้วย ไม่ได้คิดถึงแต่ตัวเอง และสุดท้ายมันก็เป็นประโยชน์กับตัวเรา เพราะว่าพอสถานที่มันสะอาดหมดจด มันก็สบายหูสบายตา น่าอยู่

แต่ว่านิทานเรื่องนี้เขาสอนมากกว่านั้น ในการดำเนินชีวิตประจำวัน เราควรจะคิดถึงผู้อื่น มองไปที่ประโยชน์ของคนอื่นก่อนตัวเอง แต่เวลามีปัญหาขึ้นมา ก่อนที่จะไปโทษคนอื่น ต้องกลับมามองที่ตัวเองก่อน ไม่เหมือนกันนะ ยามปกติเรามองไปที่คนอื่นก่อน นึกถึงประโยชน์ของคนอื่นก่อน ประโยชน์ของตัวเองเอาไว้ทีหลัง แต่ว่าเวลามีปัญหา เราควรมองที่ตัวเองก่อนที่จะไปโทษคนอื่น

อย่างชายตาบอดนี่ พอมีคนมาชน แกก็ว่าชายคนนั้นเลยทีเดียว ว่าตาบอดหรือไง มาชนเขา แต่เขาไม่รู้ว่าที่เขาถูกชน เป็นเพราะว่าโคมของเขามันดับไปแล้ว ชายคนนั้นก็เลยมองไม่เห็น แต่ชายตาบอดจะรู้ได้อย่างไร ว่าโคมของตัวเองนี่ดับไปแล้ว อันนี้เหมือนกับสอนเป็นนัยว่าคนที่โทษคนอื่น แทนที่จะมองมาที่ตัวเอง จะว่าไปก็เหมือนกับคนตาบอด คือมองไม่เห็นความบกพร่อง ความผิดพลาดของตัวเอง อันนี้ก็รวมถึงคนตาดีด้วยนะ คนตาดีถ้าเกิดปัญหาขึ้นมาแล้ว ไปโทษคนอื่น แต่มองไม่เห็นความบกพร่อง ความผิดพลาดของตัวเอง ก็ไม่ต่างจากคนตาบอดเหมือนกัน

อันนี้ก็เป็นข้อคิดที่ดีมากเลย ในยามปกติเราควรนึกถึงผู้อื่น มองไปที่คนอื่นก่อน แต่เวลามีปัญหาควรจะกลับมามองที่ตัวเอง ก่อนที่จะไปโทษคนอื่น อันนี้จะเรียกว่าเป็นวิสัยของนักปฏิบัติธรรมก็ได้ จะเรียกว่าเป็นวิสัยของผู้ใฝ่ธรรม ซึ่งต่างจากวิสัยของชาวโลกทั่วๆ ไป ชาวโลกทั่วไปเขามองตัวเองก่อน เขามองถึงประโยชน์ตัวเองก่อน คิดถึงตัวเองก่อน ส่วนคนอื่น ประโยชน์ของคนอื่นเอาไว้ทีหลัง แต่เวลามีปัญหาขึ้นมา ก็โทษคนอื่นก่อนเลย แทนที่จะกลับมามองที่ตัวเอง

บ่อยครั้งเวลางานมีปัญหา เราจะเห็นคนก็จะไปโทษคนโน้นคนนี้ ว่าเป็นเหตุทำให้งานมีปัญหา ทำให้งานตัวเองมีปัญหา เจ้านายไม่ดี เพื่อนร่วมงานไม่ได้เรื่อง บางทีก็โทษดินฟ้าอากาศ แต่ว่าสิ่งที่ไม่ได้มองคือความผิดพลาดของตัวเอง เวลานัดเพื่อน เพื่อนไม่มาตามนัดตามเวลา ก็โกรธเพื่อน พอเจอเพื่อนก็ไปด่าเพื่อนเลย ว่าทำไมนัด 4 โมงเย็น ทำไมไม่มา อุตส่าห์รอ

เพื่อนบอกอ้าวจะไปรู้เหรอ นึกว่านัด 4 โมงเช้า ผมก็อุตส่าห์ไปรอตั้งแต่ 4 โมงเช้า คือ 10 โมง ปรากฏว่าคนนัดบอกเวลาไม่ละเอียด แทนที่จะบอก 4 โมงเย็น ก็ไปพูดว่า 4 โมง เพื่อนก็เลยนึกว่า 4 โมงเช้า เป็นความผิดพลาดของคนนัดแท้ๆ แต่ว่าก็ไปด่าเพื่อนเสียแล้ว ตัวเองพูดไม่ละเอียด ก็ไปโทษเพื่อน ว่าเพื่อนไม่รับผิดชอบ เพื่อนไม่เอาใจใส่

อันนี้เรียกว่าไปโทษคนอื่นก่อนที่จะมามองที่ตัวเอง ถ้าจะให้ดีก็ควรจะถามเขาก่อนว่าทำไมถึงไม่มาตามนัด พอรู้คำอธิบายของเพื่อน ก็อาจจะพบว่าเป็นเพราะเราผิดเองนะ เราพูดไม่รัดกุมเพียงพอ ที่จริงมันไม่ใช่เฉพาะเวลามีความผิดพลาด หรือเวลามีปัญหาในงานการ เวลามีความทุกข์ก็เหมือนกัน เวลามีความทุกข์ก่อนที่จะไปโทษใคร ต้องกลับมามองที่ตัวเองก่อน แต่คนส่วนใหญ่เวลามีความทุกข์ ไปโทษข้างนอก ไปโทษเสียงดังจากข้างนอก ไปโทษการกระทำของคนนั้นคนนี้ แต่ลืมหรือไม่ได้กลับมามองที่ตัวเอง ว่าเป็นที่เราหรือเปล่า

เวลามีความทุกข์ใจ สาเหตุหลักๆ มันล้วนแล้วแต่อยู่ที่ตัวเองทั้งนั้นแหละ ไม่ได้อยู่ที่คนอื่น ทุกข์กายอาจจะเป็นเพราะของแหลมมาแทง อาจจะเป็นเพราะเชื้อโรค เพราะอาหารเป็นพิษ หรือเพราะมีคนมาทำร้าย แต่ถ้าทุกข์ใจแล้วนี่ มันน่าจะเกิดจากตัวเอง หรือใจของตัวเองเป็นหลักเลยทีเดียว

เมื่อสัก 40 กว่าปีก่อน หลวงพ่อชาท่านได้รับนิมนต์ให้มาแสดงธรรมที่ประเทศอังกฤษ ตอนนั้นท่านก็มากับลูกศิษย์ที่เป็นพระฝรั่ง เช่นหลวงพ่อสุเมโธ ซึ่งตอนนั้นยังไม่ได้สร้างวัดอมราวดีที่อังกฤษ เจ้าภาพก็ให้หลวงพ่อชากับลูกศิษย์พักที่วิหารกลางกรุงลอนดอน ย่านนั้นมีสถานบันเทิง เช่น ผับ บาร์ กลางคืนก็จะมีเสียงดนตรี

สมัยนั้นดิสโก้ก็เริ่มเป็นที่นิยมแล้ว เพราะฉะนั้นเสียงดังก็จะกระหึ่มเลยตอนกลางคืน มาถึงวิหารแฮมสเตทที่หลวงพ่อชาและลูกศิษย์พัก ซึ่งก็พอดีเป็นช่วงที่ท่านพาคนนั่งสมาธิ พระและโยมหลายคนนั่งสมาธิไม่เป็นสุขเลย เพราะเสียงดนตรีมันดัง

แต่หลวงพ่อชาท่านนั่งสมาธิอย่างสงบ เหมือนกับไม่ได้ยินอะไรเลย จนกระทั่งนั่งสมาธิเสร็จ ก็มีโยมซึ่งเป็นฝรั่ง เป็นเจ้าภาพ ก็มาหาท่านแล้วก็บอกขอโทษ ที่เสียดนตรีรบกวนการนั่งสมาธิ หลวงพ่อชาท่านฟังแล้วก็ยิ้ม แล้วท่านก็พูดว่าโยมอย่าไปคิดว่าเสียงดนตรีรบกวนเรา ที่จริงเราต่างหากที่ไปรบกวนเสียงดนตรี

บางคนฟังแล้วก็งงนะ แต่ที่จริงที่ท่านพูดนี่มันเป็นสัจธรรมเลยนะ ที่คนมีความทุกข์ หงุดหงิด เมื่อเสียงมากระทบหู มันไม่ใช่เพราะเสียง แต่เป็นเพราะใจมันไปทะเลาะกับเสียงนั้น ใจมันไปต่อสู้ ไปทะเลาะเบาะแว้งกับเสียงนั้น มันไปผลักไสเสียงนั้น ถ้าเพียงแต่ยอมรับเสียงนั้น มันก็ไม่หงุดหงิด แต่พอใจมันทะเลาะกับเสียง เพราะว่ามีความรู้สึกเป็นลบต่อเสียงนั้น ว่าเป็นเสียงดัง เสียงรบกวน พอใจรู้สึกเป็นลบ มันหงุดหงิดขึ้นมาเลย ความหงุดหงิดจนนั่งสมาธิไม่เป็นสุข เป็นเพราะใจของคนฟัง ที่วางใจไม่ถูกต้องต่อเสียง ถ้าหากว่าเพียงแต่รู้สึกเป็นกลางๆ มันก็ไม่ทุกข์

มีนักปฏิบัติธรรมคนหนึ่ง แกก็มาปฏิบัติอยู่ที่สำนักหรือวัดแห่งหนึ่ง ก็ค้างคืนอยู่ประมาณ 2-3 คืน คืนแรกเลย พักเสร็จตื่นเช้าขึ้นมา เจ้าอาวาสก็ถามว่า เป็นยังไง หลับดีไหม ชายคนนั้นก็บอกว่าหลับไม่ค่อยดี โดยเฉพาะช่วงแรกๆ เพราะว่าเสียงห่านมันดัง

เสียงห่านมันดัง ตอนกลางคืนนอนไม่ค่อยหลับเลยช่วงแรก แต่ว่านึกขึ้นมาได้ว่าตัวเองพกโทรศัพท์มือถือมา แล้วในโทรศัพท์มือถือก็มีการอัดเทปคำบรรยายธรรมะของครูบาอาจารย์หลายท่าน ก็เลยเอาหูฟังใส่ไว้ในหู แล้วก็ฟัง เปิดเทปธรรมะ เปิดคำบรรยายของครูบาอาจารย์ จนกระทั่งหลับได้ กระทั่งเช้าก็เป็นอันว่าได้พัก ได้หลับดีหน่อยช่วงครึ่งหลัง

สิ่งที่น่าสนใจคือว่า ระหว่างเสียงห่านกับเสียงบรรยาย อะไรดังกว่ากัน ชายคนนั้นบอกว่าหลับไม่ได้ เพราะว่าเสียงห่านมันดัง แต่เสียงบรรยายที่ฟังมันไม่ดังหรือ ที่จริงมันดังกว่าเสียงห่าน เพราะว่าเอาหูฟังใส่เข้าไปในรูหู อย่างไรมันดังกว่าเสียงห่านอยู่แล้วล่ะ แต่ทำไมหลับ ก็เพราะใจมันยอมรับเสียงบรรยายธรรมะ หรือว่ารู้สึกดีกับเสียงนั้น ขณะที่เสียงห่านนี่ ใจมองว่าเป็นเสียงรบกวน การที่ใจไปตีค่าว่าเสียงห่านเป็นเสียงรบกวน ก็ทำให้เกิดอาการต่อสู้ผลักไสกับเสียงนั้น

เหมือนอย่างที่หลวงพ่อชาท่านว่าไปทะเลาะกับเสียง ส่วนเสียงบรรยายธรรมะที่ฟังทางโทรศัพท์มือถือ ใจมันยอมรับ ใจมันรู้สึกเป็นบวก เลยไม่รู้สึกว่าดัง ทั้งที่ถ้าพูดถึงเดซิเบลแล้ว มันดังกว่าเสียงห่านอยู่แล้วแต่ก็เป็นอันหลับได้ ฉะนั้นที่หลับไม่ได้ ไม่ใช่เพราะเสียงดัง ไม่ใช่เพราะเสียงห่าน แต่เพราะใจมันไปทะเลาะกับเสียงห่าน ในขณะที่เสียงบรรยายใจไม่ได้ทะเลาะ ใจไปเคลิ้มคล้อยกับเสียงบรรยายธรรมเลยหลับ

นี่เป็นตัวอย่างง่ายๆ ในชีวิตของคนเรา เวลามีความทุกข์ ทุกข์ใจ เรามักโทษข้างนอก โทษเสียงดนตรี โทษเสียงห่าน โทษคนนั้นคนนี้ แต่นั่นเป็นเพราะเราไม่ได้กลับมาดูใจของเรา ไม่ได้กลับมาสังเกตปฎิกริยาของใจเรา ฉะนั้นถ้าเรากลับมาสังเกต ก็จะพบว่ามันเป็นเพราะใจของเราต่างหาก ที่เป็นตัวการทำให้เกิดทุกข์

ฉะนั้นถ้าเกิดว่าเรามีทุกข์ หรือมีปัญหาขึ้นมาในใจ แล้วเราไปมองออกนอกตัว ไม่กลับมามองที่ตัว ก็ไม่ต่างจากชายตาบอด ที่ไปต่อว่าคนที่มาชนตัวเอง ทั้งที่โคมที่ตัวเองถือ ไฟมันดับไปนานแล้ว แต่มองไม่เห็น วิถีธรรมกับวิถีโลกมันต่างกัน วิถีโลก มีปัญหาอะไรก็โทษคนอื่น แต่เวลาสบายก็คิดถึงแต่ตัวเอง ส่วนวิถีธรรม เวลาสบายๆ เวลาปกติก็นึกถึงคนอื่น แต่เวลามีปัญหาก็กลับมองที่ตัวเองก่อน

แล้วที่จริงถ้าเราดู มันสะท้อนให้เห็นว่า วิถีโลกเขาเน้นในเรื่องการเปลี่ยนแปลง จัดการกับภายนอก แต่ว่าวิถีธรรมหรือวิถีของผู้ใฝ่ธรรม จะเน้นที่การเปลี่ยนแปลงที่ตัวเอง โดยเฉพาะการปรับเปลี่ยนใจของตัว เวลามีความทุกข์ก็ลองปรับเปลี่ยนใจ

เหมือนมีผู้ชายคนหนึ่งที่เขานั่งสมาธิทุกเช้าเป็นประจำ แล้วเขาก็นั่งได้ดีด้วย แต่วันหนึ่งปรากฏว่าพอนั่งไปได้สักครู่หนึ่ง ก็มีเสียงค้อนดัง ทีแรกก็เสียงค้อน ตอนหลังก็เสียงเลื่อยยนต์ เพราะมีการก่อสร้างใกล้ๆ ตอนที่เสียงค้อน เสียงเลื่อยยนต์มากระทบหู ใจนี่ก็กระเพื่อมเลย แต่เขามีสติเห็น สติรู้ทัน พอมีสติรู้ทัน ใจก็สงบ แต่พอเผลอ ใจก็กระเพื่อม ทุกครั้งที่เสียงเลื่อยยนต์ดังกระทบหู แล้วมันก็สงบลงพอมีสติรู้ทัน เป็นอย่างนี้พักหนึ่ง

เขาก็เลยลองไปพิจารณาที่เสียงเลื่อยยนต์ พอพิจารณาไปก็สังเกตว่าบางครั้งมันก็กระชากกระชั้น บางครั้งมันก็ลากยาว บางครั้งเสียงสูง บางครั้งเสียงต่ำ บางครั้งเสียงดัง บางครั้งเสียงเบา ดูๆไปแล้วมันเหมือนกับเสียงเพลงเลยนะ เพลงประเภท heavy metal พอทันทีที่มองว่ามันเป็นเสียงเพลง ใจก็สงบเลย สงบประเภทที่ว่าเพลินเลย

ที่จริงเพลินก็ไม่ดี แต่เขาก็อดฉุกคิดไม่ได้ เอ๊ะ เมื่อกี้ใจยังกระเพื่อมขึ้นกระเพื่อมลง แถมมีความหงุดหงิดด้วย ตอนนี้ทำไมใจมันสงบ มีบางช่วงเสียงเลื่อยยนต์มันหายไป เขาอยากให้เสียงมันดังกลับมาใหม่ เขาก็เลยแปลกใจ ทีแรกเราอยากให้เสียงมันดับไปหายไป แต่ทำไมตอนนี้อยากให้เสียงมันดังใหม่ เสียงมันก็ยังดังเหมือนเดิม แต่ทำไมความรู้สึกเปลี่ยนไป

ที่ความรู้สึกเปลี่ยนไปเพราะอะไร เพราะว่าไม่ได้มองว่ามันเป็นเสียงดังอีกต่อไป แต่มองว่ามันเป็นเสียงเพลง พอมองว่าเป็นเสียงเพลง ความรู้สึกมันเป็นความรู้สึกในทางบวก ใจก็สงบเลย อันนี้มันก็ชี้ให้เห็นว่าความสงบมันอยู่ที่ใจ มากกว่าอยู่ที่สิ่งภายนอก และที่หงุดหงิด ที่ไม่สงบ มันไม่ใช่เพราะสิ่งภายนอก แต่เป็นเพราะใจ ใจรู้สึกลบกับเสียง มันก็กระเพื่อม มันก็หงุดหงิด ไม่สงบ ไม่เป็นสุข แต่พอใจรู้สึกเป็นบวก ความรู้สึกก็เปลี่ยนเป็นตรงกันข้าม

ฉะนั้นแทนที่จะไปตะโกนโวกเวกว่าให้หยุดส่งเสียง ให้เลิกตอกตะปู ให้เลิกใช้เลื่อยยนต์ มันจะดีกว่าหรือเปล่า ถ้ากลับมาดูที่ใจของเรา กลับมาสังเกตที่ใจของเรา หรือกลับมาปรับใจของเรา ใจของเรานี่อาจจะเป็นปัญหา

อันนี้คล้ายๆ กับเมื่อ 2-3 วันก่อน มีพระรูปหนึ่งเล่าให้ฟัง ได้ยินเสียงตอนเช้าๆ ที่วัด ตอนสายๆ วันกรรมกร มันมีเสียงเครื่องยนต์ดัง ตอนนั้นก็คิดว่าเป็นเสียงมอเตอร์ไซค์ ทันทีที่คิดว่าเป็นเสียงมอเตอร์ไซค์ ไม่พอใจขึ้นมาทันทีเลย มันมาขี่มอเตอร์ไซค์อะไรกันตรงนี้ ในวัด

แต่สักประเดี๋ยวเดียวฉุกขึ้นมาว่าเอ๊ะ มันอาจจะไม่ใช่เสียงมอเตอร์ไซค์ก็ได้ อาจจะเป็นเสียงเลื่อย เลื่อยที่เขากำลังตัดไม้ที่โค่น เพราะว่าก่อนหน้านั้นมีไม้โค่น ทันทีที่นึกว่าเป็นเสียงเลื่อย ที่ใช้ตัดไม้ที่ล้มลง ใจมันสงบเลย กลับอนุโมทนาด้วย เขามาช่วยกันทำงาน เสียงก็เสียงเดิม แต่ทำไมทีแรกหงุดหงิด เพราะไปคิดว่าเสียงมอเตอร์ไซค์ และคิดต่อไปว่ามันมาขี่อะไรแถวนี้ ในวัด แต่พอมองว่าเป็นเสียงเลื่อยที่ใช้เลื่อยไม้ที่ล้ม ความรู้สึกมันเปลี่ยนไป เพราะเกิดความรู้สึกว่าเขากำลังทำหน้าที่ของเขา

ฉะนั้นสุขหรือทุกข์อยู่ที่ใจแท้ๆ เลย หงุดหงิดหรือว่าสงบ อยู่ที่ใจ ไม่ใช่อยู่ที่เสียง อยู่ที่ว่าเราจะมองมันอย่างไร ฉะนั้นถ้าเราเข้าใจตรงนี้ สังเกตใจของเรา เราจะพบว่าจะไปแก้ทุกข์ก็ต้องแก้ที่ใจนั่นแหละ ไม่ต้องไปแก้ที่คนอื่น เป็นเพราะใจเราวางไว้ผิด มันจึงทุกข์ มันจึงเกิดความหงุดหงิด เกิดความรำคาญ แต่พอเราปรับใจ เปลี่ยนมุมมอง ความรู้สึกก็เปลี่ยนไป

zen sukato บันทึกเสียง Nun & oi ถอดเสียง nok edit

@ f240be2b:00c761ba

Wirtschaftswunder werden oft als mysteriöse, unvorhersehbare Phänomene dargestellt – als wären sie glückliche Zufälle oder das Ergebnis genialer Planungen. Bei näherer Betrachtung offenbart sich jedoch ein grundlegendes Muster: Diese vermeintlichen "Wunder" sind keine übernatürlichen Ereignisse, sondern das natürliche Ergebnis wirtschaftlicher Freiheit. Die Erfolgsgeschichten verschiedener Länder bestätigen diese These und zeigen, dass Wohlstand entsteht, wenn Menschen die Freiheit haben, zu handeln, zu produzieren und zu innovieren.

Das deutsche Wirtschaftswunder

Nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg lag Deutschland in Trümmern. Die Industrieproduktion war auf ein Viertel des Vorkriegsniveaus gesunken, und Millionen Menschen lebten in Armut. Doch innerhalb weniger Jahre erlebte Westdeutschland einen beispiellosen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung, der als "Wirtschaftswunder" in die Geschichte einging.

Der Wandel begann mit Ludwig Erhards mutiger Währungsreform und Preisfreigabe im Jahr 1948. Erhard, damals Direktor der Wirtschaftsverwaltung, schaffte Preiskontrollen ab und führte die Deutsche Mark ein. Diese Maßnahmen wurden von Besatzungsmächten und deutschen Sozialisten skeptisch betrachtet und waren zunächst unpopulär. Doch die Ergebnisse sprachen für sich: Über Nacht füllten sich die Ladenregale wieder, und die Schwarzmärkte verschwanden.

Das Kernprinzip war einfach: Erhard gab den Menschen ihre wirtschaftliche Freiheit zurück. Er schuf einen stabilen Rechtsrahmen, reduzierte staatliche Eingriffe und förderte den freien Wettbewerb. Die Sozialisten bekämpften diese Entwicklung von Anfang an, deuteten diese jedoch im Nachhinein als “soziale Marktwirtschaft” um, diese Lüge verbreiten sie noch heute sehr erfolgreich.

Die freie Marktwirtschaft erlaubte es den Deutschen, ihre unternehmerischen Fähigkeiten zu entfalten und ihre zerstörte Wirtschaft wieder aufzubauen.\ Das Ergebnis: Zwischen 1950 und 1960 wuchs das westdeutsche BIP um mehr als 8% jährlich. Die Arbeitslosigkeit sank von 11% auf unter 1%, und Deutschland wurde zu einer der führenden Exportnationen der Welt. Was als "Wunder" bezeichnet wurde, war tatsächlich die natürliche Konsequenz wiederhergestellter wirtschaftlicher Freiheit.

Chiles wirtschaftliche Transformation

Chile bietet ein weiteres eindrucksvolles Beispiel. In den frühen 1970er Jahren litt das Land unter einer Hyperinflation von 700%, einem schrumpfenden BIP und zunehmender Armut. Die Transformation begann in den späten 1970er Jahren mit tiefgreifenden Wirtschaftsreformen.

Die chilenische Regierung privatisierte Staatsunternehmen, öffnete Märkte für internationalen Handel, schuf ein stabiles Finanzsystem und führte ein innovatives Rentensystem ein. Während andere lateinamerikanische Länder mit protektionistischen Maßnahmen experimentierten, entschied sich Chile für wirtschaftliche Freiheit.

Die Ergebnisse waren beeindruckend: Zwischen 1975 und 2000 verdreifachte sich Chiles Pro-Kopf-Einkommen. Die Armutsquote sank von 45% auf unter 10%. Heute hat Chile das höchste Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Südamerika und eine der stabilsten Wirtschaften der Region.

Mit einer gewissen Melancholie müssen wir beobachten, wie die hart erkämpften Errungenschaften Chiles allmählich in den Schatten der Vergänglichkeit gleiten. Was einst als Leuchtturm wirtschaftlicher Transformation strahlte, wird nun von den Nebeln der kollektiven Amnesie umhüllt. In dieser Dämmerung der Erinnerung finden interventionistische Strömungen erneut fruchtbaren Boden.

Dieses Phänomen ist nicht auf Chile beschränkt. Auch in Deutschland verblasst die Erinnerung an die transformative Kraft der freien Marktwirtschaft. Die Geschichte wird umgedichtet, in der wirtschaftliche Freiheit als unbarmherziger Kapitalismus karikiert wird, während staatliche Intervention als einziger Weg zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit glorifiziert wird.

Chinas große Öffnung

Im Reich der Mitte vollzog sich die vielleicht dramatischste wirtschaftliche Metamorphose unserer Zeit. Nach Jahrzehnten der Isolation und planwirtschaftlicher Starrheit öffnete China unter Deng Xiaoping vorsichtig die Tore zur wirtschaftlichen Freiheit.

Die Transformation begann in den Reisfeldern, wo Bauern erstmals seit Generationen über ihre eigene Ernte bestimmen durften. Sie setzte sich fort in den pulsierenden Sonderwirtschaftszonen, wo unternehmerische Energie auf globale Märkte traf. 

Das Ergebnis war atemberaubend: Fast vier Jahrzehnte mit durchschnittlich 10 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum jährlich – eine beispiellose Leistung in der Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Mehr als 800 Millionen Menschen überwanden die Armut und fanden den Weg in die globale Mittelschicht. Selbst die partielle Einführung wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten entfesselte eine Produktivität, die die Welt veränderte.

Die zeitlose Lektion

Das Geheimnis wirtschaftlicher Erneuerung liegt nicht in komplexen Theorien oder staatlichen Eingriffen, sondern in der einfachen Weisheit, Menschen die Freiheit zu geben, ihre Träume zu verwirklichen. Wenn wir von "Wirtschaftswundern" sprechen, verkennen wir die wahre Natur dieser Transformationen.

Sie sind keine mysteriösen Anomalien, sondern vielmehr Bestätigungen eines zeitlosen Prinzips: In der fruchtbaren Erde wirtschaftlicher Freiheit blüht der menschliche Erfindungsgeist. Diese Erkenntnis ist keine ideologische Position, sondern eine durch die Geschichte vielfach bestätigte Wahrheit.

Die Lektion dieser Erfolgsgeschichten ist sowohl schlicht als auch tiefgründig: Der Weg zu Wohlstand und menschlicher Entfaltung führt über die Anerkennung und den Schutz wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten. In dieser Erkenntnis liegt vielleicht das wahre Wunder – die beständige Kraft einer einfachen Idee, die immer wieder Leben und Hoffnung in die dunkelsten wirtschaftlichen Landschaften bringt.

Der aufsteigende Stern des Südens

Jenseits der Andenkette, wo Argentinien und Chile ihre lange Grenze teilen, entfaltet sich eine neue Erfolgsgeschichte. Mit mutigen Reformen und einer Rückbesinnung auf wirtschaftliche Freiheit erwacht dieses Land mit viel Potenzial aus seinem langen Schlummer. Was wir beobachten, ist nichts weniger als die Geburt eines neuen südamerikanischen Wirtschaftswunders – geboren aus der Erkenntnis, dass Wohlstand nicht verteilt, sondern erschaffen wird.

@ 58537364:705b4b85

“Any society that sets intellectual development as its goal will continually progress, without end—until life is liberated from problems and suffering. All problems can ultimately be solved through wisdom itself.

The signpost pointing toward ‘wisdom’ is the ability to think—or what is called in Dhamma terms, ‘yoniso-manasikāra,’ meaning wise or analytical reflection. Thinking is the bridge that connects information and knowledge with insight and understanding. Refined or skillful thinking enables one to seek knowledge and apply it effectively.

The key types of thinking are:

• Thinking to acquire knowledge
• Thinking to apply knowledge effectively In other words, thinking to gain knowledge and thinking to use that knowledge. A person with knowledge who doesn’t know how to think cannot make that knowledge useful. On the other hand, a person who thinks without having or seeking knowledge will end up with nothing but dreamy, deluded ideas. When such dreamy ideas are expressed as opinions, they become nonsensical and meaningless—mere expressions of personal likes or dislikes.

In this light, the ‘process of developing wisdom’ begins with the desire to seek knowledge, followed by the training of thinking skills, and concludes with the ability to express well-founded opinions. (In many important cases, practice, testing, or experimentation is needed to confirm understanding.)

Thus, the thirst for knowledge and the ability to seek knowledge are the forerunners of intellectual development. In any society where people lack a love for knowledge and are not inclined to search for it, true intellectual growth will be difficult. That society will be filled with fanciful, delusional thinking and opinions based merely on personal likes and dislikes. For the development of wisdom, there must be the guiding principle that: ‘Giving opinions must go hand-in-hand with seeking knowledge. And once knowledge is gained, thinking must be refined and skillful.’”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto) Source: Dhamma treatise “Organizing Society According to the Ideals of the Sangha”

Note: “Pariyosāna” means the complete conclusion or the final, all-encompassing end.

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“We must emphasize the pursuit of knowledge more than merely giving opinions. Opinions must be based on the most solid foundation of knowledge.

Nowadays, we face so many problems because people love to express opinions without ever seeking knowledge.”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto)

@ 06830f6c:34da40c5

The evolution of development environments is incredibly rich and complex and reflects a continuous drive towards greater efficiency, consistency, isolation, and collaboration. It's a story of abstracting away complexity and standardizing workflows.

Phase 1: The Bare Metal & Manual Era (Early 1970s - Late 1990s)

1. Direct OS Interaction / Bare Metal Development:

   • Description: Developers worked directly on the operating system's command line or a basic text editor. Installation of compilers, interpreters, and libraries was a manual, often arcane process involving downloading archives, compiling from source, and setting environment variables. "Configuration drift" (differences between developer machines) was the norm.
   • Tools: Text editors (Vi, Emacs), command-line compilers (GCC), Makefiles.
   • Challenges: Extremely high setup time, dependency hell, "works on my machine" syndrome, difficult onboarding for new developers, lack of reproducibility. Version control was primitive (e.g., RCS, SCCS).

2. Integrated Development Environments (IDEs) - Initial Emergence:

   • Description: Early IDEs (like Turbo Pascal, Microsoft Visual Basic) began to integrate editors, compilers, debuggers, and sometimes GUI builders into a single application. This was a massive leap in developer convenience.
   • Tools: Turbo Pascal, Visual Basic, early Visual Studio versions.
   • Advancement: Improved developer productivity, streamlined common tasks. Still relied on local system dependencies.

Phase 2: Towards Dependency Management & Local Reproducibility (Late 1990s - Mid-2000s)

1. Basic Build Tools & Dependency Resolvers (Pre-Package Managers):

   • Description: As projects grew, manual dependency tracking became impossible. Tools like Ant (Java) and early versions of autoconf/make for C/C++ helped automate the compilation and linking process, managing some dependencies.
   • Tools: Apache Ant, GNU Autotools.
   • Advancement: Automated build processes, rudimentary dependency linking. Still not comprehensive environment management.

2. Language-Specific Package Managers:

   • Description: A significant leap was the emergence of language-specific package managers that could fetch, install, and manage libraries and frameworks declared in a project's manifest file. Examples include Maven (Java), npm (Node.js), pip (Python), RubyGems (Ruby), Composer (PHP).
   • Tools: Maven, npm, pip, RubyGems, Composer.
   • Advancement: Dramatically simplified dependency resolution, improved intra-project reproducibility.
   • Limitation: Managed language-level dependencies, but not system-level dependencies or the underlying OS environment. Conflicts between projects on the same machine (e.g., Project A needs Python 2.7, Project B needs Python 3.9) were common.

Phase 3: Environment Isolation & Portability (Mid-2000s - Early 2010s)

1. Virtual Machines (VMs) for Development:

   • Description: To address the "it works on my machine" problem stemming from OS-level and system-level differences, developers started using VMs. Tools like VMware Workstation, VirtualBox, and later Vagrant (which automated VM provisioning) allowed developers to encapsulate an entire OS and its dependencies for a project.
   • Tools: VMware, VirtualBox, Vagrant.
   • Advancement: Achieved strong isolation and environment reproducibility (a true "single environment" for a project).
   • Limitations: Resource-heavy (each VM consumed significant CPU, RAM, disk space), slow to provision and boot, difficult to share large VM images.

2. Early Automation & Provisioning Tools:

   • Description: Alongside VMs, configuration management tools started being used to automate environment setup within VMs or on servers. This helped define environments as code, making them more consistent.
   • Tools: Chef, Puppet, Ansible.
   • Advancement: Automated provisioning, leading to more consistent environments, often used in conjunction with VMs.

Phase 4: The Container Revolution & Orchestration (Early 2010s - Present)

1. Containerization (Docker):

   • Description: Docker popularized Linux Containers (LXC), offering a lightweight, portable, and efficient alternative to VMs. Containers package an application and all its dependencies into a self-contained unit that shares the host OS kernel. This drastically reduced resource overhead and startup times compared to VMs.
   • Tools: Docker.
   • Advancement: Unprecedented consistency from development to production (Dev/Prod Parity), rapid provisioning, highly efficient resource use. Became the de-facto standard for packaging applications.

2. Container Orchestration:

   • Description: As microservices and container adoption grew, managing hundreds or thousands of containers became a new challenge. Orchestration platforms automated the deployment, scaling, healing, and networking of containers across clusters of machines.
   • Tools: Kubernetes, Docker Swarm, Apache Mesos.
   • Advancement: Enabled scalable, resilient, and complex distributed systems development and deployment. The "environment" started encompassing the entire cluster.

Phase 5: Cloud-Native, Serverless & Intelligent Environments (Present - Future)

1. Cloud-Native Development:

   • Description: Leveraging cloud services (managed databases, message queues, serverless functions) directly within the development workflow. Developers focus on application logic, offloading infrastructure management to cloud providers. Containers become a key deployment unit in this paradigm.
   • Tools: AWS Lambda, Azure Functions, Google Cloud Run, cloud-managed databases.
   • Advancement: Reduced operational overhead, increased focus on business logic, highly scalable deployments.

2. Remote Development & Cloud-Based IDEs:

   • Description: The full development environment (editor, terminal, debugger, code) can now reside in the cloud, accessed via a thin client or web browser. This means developers can work from any device, anywhere, with powerful cloud resources backing their environment.
   • Tools: GitHub Codespaces, Gitpod, AWS Cloud9, VS Code Remote Development.
   • Advancement: Instant onboarding, consistent remote environments, access to high-spec machines regardless of local hardware, enhanced security.

3. Declarative & AI-Assisted Environments (The Near Future):

   • Description: Development environments will become even more declarative, where developers specify what they need, and AI/automation tools provision and maintain it. AI will proactively identify dependency issues, optimize resource usage, suggest code snippets, and perform automated testing within the environment.
   • Tools: Next-gen dev container specifications, AI agents integrated into IDEs and CI/CD pipelines.
   • Prediction: Near-zero environment setup time, self-healing environments, proactive problem identification, truly seamless collaboration.

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web3 #computing #cloud #devstr

@ 58537364:705b4b85

Ep 228 "วิชาชีวิต"

คนเราเมื่อเกิดมาแล้ว ไม่ได้หวังแค่มีชีวิตรอดเท่านั้น แต่ยังปรารถนา "ความเจริญก้าวหน้า" และ "ความสุขในชีวิต"

จึงพากันศึกษาเล่าเรียนเพื่อให้มี "วิชาความรู้" สำหรับการประกอบอาชีพ โดยเชื่อว่า การงานที่มั่นคงย่อมนำ "ความสำเร็จ" และ "ความเจริญก้าวหน้า" มาให้

อย่างไรก็ตาม...ความสำเร็จในวิชาชีพหรือความเจริญก้าวหน้าในชีวิต ไม่ได้เป็นหลักประกันความสุขอย่างแท้จริง

แม้เงินทองและทรัพย์สมบัติจะช่วยให้ชีวิตมีความสุข สะดวก สบาย แต่ไม่ได้ช่วยให้สุขใจในสิ่งที่ตนมี หากยังรู้สึกว่า "ตนยังมีไม่พอ"

ขณะเดียวกันชื่อเสียงเกียรติยศที่ได้มาก็ไม่ช่วยให้คลายความทุกข์ใจ เมื่อต้องเผชิญปัญหาต่างๆ นาๆ

ทั้งการพลัดพราก การสูญเสียบุคคลผู้เป็นที่รัก ความเจ็บป่วย และความตายที่ต้องเกิดขึ้นกับทุกคน

ยิ่งกว่านั้น...ความสำเร็จในอาชีพและความเจริญก้าวหน้าในชีวิต ล้วนเป็น "สิ่งไม่เที่ยง" แปรผันตกต่ำ ไม่สามารถควบคุมได้

วิชาชีพทั้งหลายช่วยให้เราหาเงินได้มากขึ้น แต่ไม่ได้ช่วยให้เราเข้าถึง "ความสุขที่แท้จริง"

คนที่ประสบความสำเร็จในวิชาชีพไม่น้อย ที่มีชีวิตอมทุกข์ ความเครียดรุมเร้า สุขภาพเสื่อมโทรม

หากเราไม่อยากเผชิญกับสิ่งเหล่านี้ ควรเรียน "วิชาชีวิต" เพื่อเข้าใจโลก เข้าใจชีวิต รู้เท่าทันความผันแปรไปของสรรพสิ่ง

วิชาชีวิต...เรียนจากประสบการณ์ชีวิต เมื่อมีปัญหาต่างๆ ขอให้คิดว่า คือ "บททดสอบ"

จงหมั่นศึกษาหาบทเรียนจากวิชานี้อยู่เสมอ สร้าง "ความตระหนักรู้" ถึงความสำคัญในการมีชีวิต

ช่วงที่ผ่านมา เมื่อมีปัญหาฉันไม่สามารถหาทางออกจากทุกข์ได้เศร้า เสียใจ ทุรน ทุราย สอบตก "วิชาชีวิต"

โชคดีครูบาอาจารย์ให้ข้อคิด กล่าวว่า เป็นเรื่องธรรมดาหากเรายังไม่เข้าใจชีวิต ทุกสิ่งล้วนผันแปร เกิด-ดับ เป็นธรรมดา ท่านเมตตาส่งหนังสือเล่มนี้มาให้

เมื่อค่อยๆ ศึกษา ทำความเข้าใจ นำความทุกข์ที่เกิดขึ้นมาพิจารณา เห็นว่าเมื่อ "สอบตก" ก็ "สอบใหม่" จนกว่าจะผ่านไปได้

วิชาทางโลกเมื่อสอบตกยังเปิดโอกาสให้เรา "สอบซ่อม" วิชาทางธรรมก็เช่นเดียวกัน หากเจอปัญหา อุปสรรค หรือ ความทุกข์ถาโถมเข้ามา ขอให้เราตั้งสติ ว่า จะตั้งใจทำข้อสอบนี้ให้ผ่านไปให้จงได้

หากเราสามารถดำเนินชีวิตด้วยความเข้าใจ เราจะค้นพบ "วิชาชีวิต" ที่สามารถทำให้หลุดพ้นจากความทุกข์ได้แน่นอน

ด้วยรักและปรารถนาดี ปาริชาติ รักตะบุตร 21 เมษายน 2566

น้อมกราบขอบพระคุณพระ อ.ไพศาล วิสาโล เป็นอย่างสูง ที่ท่านเมตตา ให้ข้อธรรมะยามทุกข์ใจและส่งหนังสือมาให้ จึงตั้งใจอยากแบ่งปันเป็นธรรมทาน

@ 5144fe88:9587d5af

The recent anomalies in the financial market and the frequent occurrence of world trade wars and hot wars have caused the world's political and economic landscape to fluctuate violently. It always feels like the financial crisis is getting closer and closer.

This is a systematic analysis of the possibility of the current global financial crisis by Manus based on Ray Dalio's latest views, US and Japanese economic and financial data, Buffett's investment behavior, and historical financial crises.

Research shows that the current financial system has many preconditions for a crisis, especially debt levels, market valuations, and investor behavior, which show obvious crisis signals. The probability of a financial crisis in the short term (within 6-12 months) is 30%-40%,

in the medium term (within 1-2 years) is 50%-60%,

in the long term (within 2-3 years) is 60%-70%.

Japan's role as the world's largest holder of overseas assets and the largest creditor of the United States is particularly critical. The sharp appreciation of the yen may be a signal of the return of global safe-haven funds, which will become an important precursor to the outbreak of a financial crisis.

Potential conditions for triggering a financial crisis Conditions that have been met 1. High debt levels: The debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States and Japan has reached a record high. 2. Market overvaluation: The ratio of stock market to GDP hits a record high 3. Abnormal investor behavior: Buffett's cash holdings hit a record high, with net selling for 10 consecutive quarters 4. Monetary policy shift: Japan ends negative interest rates, and the Fed ends the rate hike cycle 5. Market concentration is too high: a few technology stocks dominate market performance

Potential trigger points 1. The Bank of Japan further tightens monetary policy, leading to a sharp appreciation of the yen and the return of overseas funds 2. The US debt crisis worsens, and the proportion of interest expenses continues to rise to unsustainable levels 3. The bursting of the technology bubble leads to a collapse in market confidence 4. The trade war further escalates, disrupting global supply chains and economic growth 5. Japan, as the largest creditor of the United States, reduces its holdings of US debt, causing US debt yields to soar

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Analysis of the similarities and differences between the current economic environment and the historical financial crisis Debt level comparison Current debt situation • US government debt to GDP ratio: 124.0% (December 2024) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: 216.2% (December 2024), historical high 225.8% (March 2021) • US total debt: 36.21 trillion US dollars (May 2025) • Japanese debt/GDP ratio: more than 250%-263% (Japanese Prime Minister’s statement)

Before the 2008 financial crisis • US government debt to GDP ratio: about 64% (2007) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: about 175% (2007)

Before the Internet bubble in 2000 • US government debt to GDP ratio: about 55% (1999) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: about 130% (1999)

Key differences • The current US debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly twice that before the 2008 crisis • The current Japanese debt-to-GDP ratio is more than 1.2 times that before the 2008 crisis • Global debt levels are generally higher than historical pre-crisis levels • US interest payments are expected to devour 30% of fiscal revenue (Moody's warning)

Monetary policy and interest rate environment

Current situation • US 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.6% (May 2025) • Bank of Japan policy: end negative interest rates and start a rate hike cycle • Bank of Japan's holdings of government bonds: 52%, plans to reduce purchases to 3 trillion yen per month by January-March 2026 • Fed policy: end the rate hike cycle and prepare to cut interest rates

Before the 2008 financial crisis • US 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.5%-5% (2007) • Fed policy: continuous rate hikes from 2004 to 2006, and rate cuts began in 2007 • Bank of Japan policy: maintain ultra-low interest rates

Key differences • Current US interest rates are similar to those before the 2008 crisis, but debt levels are much higher than then • Japan is in the early stages of ending its loose monetary policy, unlike before historical crises • The size of global central bank balance sheets is far greater than at any time in history

Market valuations and investor behavior Current situation • The ratio of stock market value to the size of the US economy: a record high • Buffett's cash holdings: $347 billion (28% of assets), a record high • Market concentration: US stock growth mainly relies on a few technology giants • Investor sentiment: Technology stocks are enthusiastic, but institutional investors are beginning to be cautious

Before the 2008 financial crisis • Buffett's cash holdings: 25% of assets (2005) • Market concentration: Financial and real estate-related stocks performed strongly • Investor sentiment: The real estate market was overheated and subprime products were widely popular

Before the 2000 Internet bubble • Buffett's cash holdings: increased from 1% to 13% (1998) • Market concentration: Internet stocks were extremely highly valued • Investor sentiment: Tech stocks are in a frenzy

Key differences • Buffett's current cash holdings exceed any pre-crisis level in history • Market valuation indicators have reached a record high, exceeding the levels before the 2000 bubble and the 2008 crisis • The current market concentration is higher than any period in history, and a few technology stocks dominate market performance

Safe-haven fund flows and international relations Current situation • The status of the yen: As a safe-haven currency, the appreciation of the yen may indicate a rise in global risk aversion • Trade relations: The United States has imposed tariffs on Japan, which is expected to reduce Japan's GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points in fiscal 2025 • International debt: Japan is one of the largest creditors of the United States

Before historical crises • Before the 2008 crisis: International capital flows to US real estate and financial products • Before the 2000 bubble: International capital flows to US technology stocks

Key differences • Current trade frictions have intensified and the trend of globalization has weakened • Japan's role as the world's largest holder of overseas assets has become more prominent • International debt dependence is higher than any period in history

@ e97aaffa:2ebd765d

Passou alguns dias, após as eleições legislativas, a cabeça está mais fria, é um bom momento para um rescaldo e para um pouco de futurologia. Esta análise vai ser limitada apenas aos grandes partidos.

Podemos resumir esta eleição, numa única palavra: Terramoto.

A AD ganhou, mas o grande destaque foi a queda do PS e a subida do Chega. Se a governação do país estava difícil, agora com este novo desenho da assembleia, será quase impossível, piorou bastante. Neste momento, ainda falta contabilizar os votos da emigração, mas o mais provável é o Chega ultrapassar o PS.

A queda do PS foi tremenda, ninguém esperava tal coisa, o partido está em estado de choque. O partido vai necessitar de tempo para estabilizar e para se reconstruir.

Devido a motivos constitucionais (6 meses antes e 6 meses depois da eleição do presidente da República) só poderá existir eleições no final do próximo ano, isso garante que o novo governo da AD vai estar no poder pelo menos um ano. Isso vai obrigar a aprovação do próximo orçamento de estado, como o PS necessita de tirar os holofotes sobre si, vai facilitar o governo. Provavelmente vai existir um acordo de cavalheiro, um pacto de não agressão entre o governo e o PS, o PS vai se abster na votação do orçamento de estado e a governo não fará revisão constituicional sem o consentimento do PS e também não fará reformas nas leis ou políticas que sejam contra os princípios básicos do partido socialista. Em suma, não haverá grandes reformas, será um governo de gestão com ligeiramente mais poderes.

Não será um governo de bloco central, nem um governo da AD com apoio PS, será apenas um governo da AD com uma falsa oposição do PS. Um governo de bloco central, é uma bomba nuclear, ainda seria demasiado cedo para utilizá-la.

O Partido Socialista sabe que, para ter algumas hipóteses de vencer a próxima eleição, necessita de estar bem e o governo da AD tem que demonstrar algum desgaste, uma queda na popularidade. Eu não acredito que um ano seja suficiente, talvez, seja necessário 2 anos. Isto significa que o país poderá ficar estagnado 1 ou 2 anos, se o governo não conseguir fazer grandes reformas, se os cidadãos não virem/sentirem sinais de mudança, vai dar ainda mais força ao Chega.

Eu acredito que o ponto chave, é a imigração, o governo terá que demonstrar muito trabalho e minimizar o problema, para “esvaziar” um pouco o Chega, caso não faça será um problema.

XXVI Governo

Assim, nessa próxima eleição, talvez em 2027, acredito que as percentagens ficarão mais ou menos como esta eleição, com um partido ligeiramente à frente e os outros dois mais equilibrados. Só que o vencedor seria o Chega, ficando a AD(provavelmente o PSD) e o PS a disputa pelo 2º lugar.

Seria um novo terramoto, mas aqui seria necessário utilizar a bomba nuclear, iria surgir uma nova geringonça. Apesar da vitória do Ventura, iria surgir o governo bloco central, com o PSD e PS, não haveria outra alternativa.

O governo de bloco central, teria que ser muito competente, porque se não o for, iria para novas eleições. Se o governo for um fiasco, PS corre o risco de ser esvaziado, cairá ainda mais, correrá um risco de existência, poderá tornar-se num partido insignificante na nossa política.

XXVII Governo

Agora o terramoto ainda maior, nessa futura eleição, o Chega venceria com maioria absoluta, aí sim, seria um verdadeiro terramoto, ao nível de 1755.

O Chega tem o tempo a seu fazer, tem uma forte penetração nos jovens. Cada jovem que faça 18 anos, existe uma forte possibilidade de ser eleitor do Chega, o seu oposto, acontece com o PCP e o PS, os mais velhos vão morrendo, não existe renovação geracional. Mas o ponto fulcral é a ausência de competência generalizada nos partidos e políticos que têm governado o nosso país nos últimos anos, o descontentamento da população é completo. Esses políticos vivem na sua bolha, não tem noção do mundo real, nem compreendem quais são os problemas das pessoas simples, do cidadão comum.

Ventura

Na minha opinião só existirá três situações, que poderão travar as ascensão do André Ventura a primeiro-ministro:

• Ou existe um óptimo governo, que crie um bom crescimento na qualidade de vida das pessoas e que resolva os 3 problemas que mais anseiam actualmente os portugueses: Habitação, Saúde e Imigração. A probabilidade de isso acontecer é quase nula.
• Ou se o André Ventura desistir, a batalha será muito longa e ele poderá ficar cansado. Pouco provável.
• Ou então, um Argumentum ad hominem, terá que surgir algo, factos concretos que manche a imagem do André Ventura, que destrua por completo a sua reputação.

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É a minha a linha leitura da bola de cristal, poderão dizer é uma visão pessimista, eu acho que é realista e pragmática, não vejo qualquer competência na classe política para resolver os problemas do país. Esta é a opinião de um recorrente crítico do Chega.

@ 58537364:705b4b85

“สุขเวทนา” ที่แท้ก็คือ “มายา”
เป็นเหมือนลูกคลื่นลูกหนึ่ง
ที่เกิดขึ้นเพราะน้ำถูกลมพัด
เดี๋ยวมันก็แตกกระจายไป

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หากต้องการจะมีชีวิตอย่างเกษมแล้ว
ก็ต้องอาศัยความรู้เรื่อง อนิจจัง ทุกขัง อนัตตา ให้สมบูรณ์
มันจะต่อต้านกันได้กับอารมณ์ คือ รูป เสียง กลิ่น รส สัมผัส ที่มากระทบ
ไม่ให้ไปหลงรัก หรือหลงเกลียด

เรื่องวุ่นวายมีอยู่ ๒ อย่างเท่านั้น

1. ไปหลงรัก อย่างหนึ่ง
2. ไปหลงเกลียด อย่างหนึ่ง

ซึ่งเป็นเหตุให้หัวเราะและต้องร้องไห้
ถ้าใครมองเห็นว่า หัวเราะก็กระหืดกระหอบ มันเหนื่อยเหมือนกัน
ร้องไห้ก็กระหืดกระหอบ เหมือนกัน
สู้อยู่เฉย ๆ ดีกว่า อย่าต้องหัวเราะ อย่าต้องร้องไห้
นี่แหละ! มันเป็นความเกษม

เราอย่าได้ตกไปเป็นทาสของอารมณ์
จนไปหัวเราะหรือร้องไห้ตามที่อารมณ์มายั่ว
เราเป็นอิสระแก่ตัว หยุดอยู่ หรือเกษมอยู่อย่างนี้ดีกว่า

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ใช้ อนิจจัง ทุกขัง อนัตตา เป็นเครื่องมือกำกับชีวิต

• รูป เสียง กลิ่น รส สัมผัส เป็น มายา เป็น illusion
• "ตัวกู-ของกู" ก็เป็น illusion
• เพราะ "ตัวกู-ของกู" มันเกิดมาจากอารมณ์
• "ตัวกู-ของกู" เป็นมายา อารมณ์ทั้งหลายก็เป็นมายา

เห็นได้ด้วยหลัก อนิจจัง ทุกขัง อนัตตา
...ความทุกข์ก็ไม่เกิด

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เราจะตัดลัดมองไปดูสิ่งที่เป็น “สุขเวทนา”

สุขเวทนา คือ ความสุขสนุกสนาน เอร็ดอร่อย
ที่เป็นสุขนั้นเรียกว่า “สุขเวทนา”

แต่สุขเวทนา เป็นมายา
เพราะมันเป็นเหมือนลูกคลื่นที่เกิดขึ้นเป็นคราว ๆ
ไม่ใช่ตัวจริงอะไร

ที่พูดดังนี้ก็เพราะว่า
ในบรรดาสิ่งทั้งปวงในโลกทั้งหมดทุกโลก
ไม่ว่าโลกไหน มันมีค่าอยู่ก็ตรงที่ให้เกิดสุขเวทนา

ลองคิดดูให้ดีว่า...
- ท่านศึกษาเล่าเรียนทำไม?
- ท่านประกอบอาชีพ หน้าที่การงานทำไม?
- ท่านสะสมทรัพย์สมบัติ เกียรติยศ ชื่อเสียง พวกพ้องบริวารทำไม?

มันก็เพื่อสุขเวทนาอย่างเดียว
เพราะฉะนั้น แปลว่า อะไร ๆ มันก็มารวมจุดอยู่ที่สุขเวทนาหมด

ฉะนั้น ถ้าเรามีความรู้ในเรื่องนี้
จัดการกับเรื่องนี้ให้ถูกต้องเพียงเรื่องเดียวเท่านั้น
ทุกเรื่องมันถูกหมด

เพราะฉะนั้น จึงต้องดูสุขเวทนาให้ถูกต้องตามที่เป็นจริงว่า
มันก็เป็น “มายา” ชนิดหนึ่ง

เราจะต้องจัดการให้สมกันกับที่มันเป็นมายา
ไม่ใช่ว่า จะต้องไปตั้งข้อรังเกียจ เกลียดชังมัน
อย่างนั้นมันยิ่ง บ้าบอที่สุด

ถ้าเข้าไปหลงรัก หลงเป็นทาสมัน
ก็เป็นเรื่อง บ้าบอที่สุด

แต่ว่าไปจัดการกับมันอย่างไรให้ถูกต้อง
นั้นแหละเป็นธรรมะ
เป็น ลูกศิษย์ของพระพุทธเจ้า
ที่จะเอาชนะความทุกข์ได้ และไม่ต้องเป็น โรคทางวิญญาณ

---

สุขเวทนา ที่แท้ก็คือ มายา

มันก็ต้องทำโดยวิธีที่พิจารณาให้เห็นว่า
“สุขเวทนา” นี้ ที่แท้ก็คือ “มายา”

เป็นเหมือน ลูกคลื่นลูกหนึ่ง
ที่เกิดขึ้นเพราะ น้ำถูกลมพัด

หมายความว่า
เมื่อ รูป เสียง กลิ่น รส ฯ เข้ามา
แล้ว ความโง่ คือ อวิชชา โมหะ ออกรับ
กระทบกันแล้วเป็นคลื่น

กล่าวคือ สุขเวทนาเกิดขึ้นมา
แต่ เดี๋ยวมันก็แตกกระจายไป

---

ถ้ามองเห็นอย่างนี้แล้ว
เราก็ไม่เป็นทาสของสุขเวทนา
เราสามารถ ควบคุม จะจัด จะทำกับมันได้
ในวิธีที่ ไม่เป็นทุกข์

• ตัวเองก็ไม่เป็นทุกข์
• ครอบครัวก็ไม่เป็นทุกข์
• เพื่อนบ้านก็ไม่เป็นทุกข์
• คนทั้งโลกก็ไม่พลอยเป็นทุกข์
  เพราะมีเราเป็นมูลเหตุ

ถ้าทุกคนเป็นอย่างนี้
โลกนี้ก็มีสันติภาพถาวร
เป็นความสุขที่แท้จริงและถาวร

นี่คือ อานิสงส์ของการหายโรคโดยวิธีต่าง ๆ กัน
ไม่เป็นโรค “ตัวกู” ไม่เป็นโรค “ของกู”

---

พุทธทาสภิกขุ
ที่มา : คำบรรยายชุด “แก่นพุทธศาสน์”
ปีพุทธศักราช ๒๕๐๔
ครั้งที่ ๑
หัวข้อเรื่อง “ใจความทั้งหมดของพระพุทธศาสนา”
ณ ศิริราชพยาบาล มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล
เมื่อวันที่ ๑๗ ธันวาคม ๒๕๐๔

@ 1c19eb1a:e22fb0bc

After my first major review of Primal on Android, we're going to go a very different direction for this next review. Primal is your standard "Twitter clone" type of kind 1 note client, now branching into long-form. They also have a team of developers working on making it one of the best clients to fill that use-case. By contrast, this review will not be focusing on any client at all. Not even an "other stuff" client.

Instead, we will be reviewing a very useful tool created and maintained by nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5 called #Amber. For those unfamiliar with Amber, it is an #Android application dedicated to managing your signing keys, and allowing you to log into various #Nostr applications without having to paste in your private key, better known as your #nsec. It is not recommended to paste your nsec into various applications because they each represent another means by which it could be compromised, and anyone who has your nsec can post as you. On Nostr, your #npub is your identity, and your signature using your private key is considered absolute proof that any given note, reaction, follow update, or profile change was authorized by the rightful owner of that identity.

It happens less often these days, but early on, when the only way to try out a new client was by inputting your nsec, users had their nsec compromised from time to time, or they would suspect that their key may have been compromised. When this occurs, there is no way to recover your account, or set a new private key, deprecating the previous one. The only thing you can do is start over from scratch, letting everyone know that your key has been compromised and to follow you on your new npub.

If you use Amber to log into other Nostr apps, you significantly reduce the likelihood that your private key will be compromised, because only one application has access to it, and all other applications reach out to Amber to sign any events. This isn't quite as secure as storing your private key on a separate device that isn't connected to the internet whatsoever, like many of us have grown accustomed to with securing our #Bitcoin, but then again, an online persona isn't nearly as important to secure for most of us as our entire life savings.

Amber is the first application of its kind for managing your Nostr keys on a mobile device. nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5 didn't merely develop the application, but literally created the specification for accomplishing external signing on Android which can be found in NIP-55. Unfortunately, Amber is only available for Android. A signer application for iOS is in the works from nostr:npub1yaul8k059377u9lsu67de7y637w4jtgeuwcmh5n7788l6xnlnrgs3tvjmf, but is not ready for use at this time. There is also a new mobile signer app for Android and iOS called Nowser, but I have not yet had a chance to try this app out. From a cursory look at the Android version, it is indeed in the very early stages of development and cannot be compared with Amber.

This review of Amber is current as of version 3.2.5.

Overall Impression

Score: 4.7 / 5 (Updated 4/21/2025)

I cannot speak highly enough about Amber as a tool that every Nostr user on Android should start using if they are not already. When the day comes that we have more options for well-developed signer apps on mobile, my opinion may very well change, but until then Amber is what we have available to us. Even so, it is an incredibly well thought-out and reliable tool for securing your nsec.

Despite being the only well-established Android signer available for Android, Amber can be compared with other external signing methods available on other platforms. Even with more competition in this arena, though, Amber still holds up incredibly well. If you are signing into web applications on a desktop, I still would recommend using a browser extension like #Alby or #Nos2x, as the experience is usually faster, more seamless, and far more web apps support this signing method (NIP-07) than currently support the two methods employed by Amber. Nevertheless that gap is definitely narrowing.

A running list I created of applications that support login and signing with Amber can be found here: Nostr Clients with External Signer Support

I have run into relatively few bugs in my extensive use of Amber for all of my mobile signing needs. Occasionally the application crashes when trying to send it a signing request from a couple of applications, but I would not be surprised if this is no fault of Amber at all, and rather the fault of those specific apps, since it works flawlessly with the vast majority of apps that support either NIP-55 or NIP-46 login.

I also believe that mobile is the ideal platform to use for this type of application. First, because most people use Nostr clients on their phone more than on a desktop. There are, of course, exceptions to that, but in general we spend more time on our phones when interacting online. New users are also more likely to be introduced to Nostr by a friend having them download a Nostr client on their phone than on a PC, and that can be a prime opportunity to introduce the new user to protecting their private key. Finally, I agree with the following assessment from nostr:npub1jlrs53pkdfjnts29kveljul2sm0actt6n8dxrrzqcersttvcuv3qdjynqn.

nostr:nevent1qqsw0r6gzn05xg67h5q2xkplwsuzedjxw9lf7ntrxjl8ajm350fcyugprfmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68yurvv438xtnrdaksyg9hyaxj3clfswlhyrd5kjsj5v04clhjvgeq6pwztmysfzdvn93gev7awu9v

The one downside to Amber is that it will be quite foreign for new users. That is partially unavoidable with Nostr, since folks are not accustomed to public/private key cryptography in general, let alone using a private key to log into websites or social media apps. However, the initial signup process is a bit cumbersome if Amber is being used as the means of initially generating a key pair. I think some of this could be foregone at start-up in favor of streamlining onboarding, and then encourage the user to back-up their private key at a later time.

Features

Amber has some features that may surprise you, outside of just storing your private key and signing requests from your favorite Nostr clients. It is a full key management application, supporting multiple accounts, various backup methods, and even the ability to authorize other users to access a Nostr profile you control.

Android Signing

This is the signing method where Amber really shines in both speed and ease of use. Any Android application that supports this standard, and even some progressive web-apps that can be installed to your Android's home-screen, can very quickly and seamlessly connect with Amber to authorize anything that you need signed with your nsec. All you have to do is select "Login with Amber" in clients like #Amethyst or #0xChat and the app will reach out to Amber for all signing requests from there on out. If you had previously signed into the app with your nsec, you will first need to log out, then choose the option to use Amber when you log back in.

This is a massive deal, because everything you do on Nostr requires a signature from your private key. Log in? Needs a signature. Post a "GM" note? Needs a signature. Follow someone who zapped your note? Needs a signature. Zap them back? You guessed it; needs a signature. When you paste your private key into an application, it will automatically sign a lot of these actions without you ever being asked for approval, but you will quickly realize just how many things the client is doing on your behalf when Amber is asking you to approve them each time.

Now, this can also get quite annoying after a while. I recommend using the setting that allows Amber to automatically sign for basic functions, which will cut down on some of the authorization spam. Once you have been asked to authorize the same type of action a few times, you can also toggle the option to automatically authorize that action in the future. Don't worry, though, you have full control to require Amber to ask you for permission again if you want to be alerted each time, and this toggle is specific to each application, so it's not a blanket approval for all Nostr clients you connect with.

This method of signing is just as fast as signing via browser extension on web clients, which users may be more accustomed to. Everything is happening locally on the device, so it can be very snappy and secure.

Nostr Connect/Bunker Signing

This next method of signing has a bit of a delay, because it is using a Nostr relay to send encrypted information back and forth between the app the user is interacting with and Amber to obtain signatures remotely. It isn't a significant delay most of the time, but it is just enough to be noticeable.

Also, unlike the previous signing method that would automatically switch to Amber as the active application when a signing request is sent, this method only sends you a notification that you must be watching for. This can lead to situations where you are wondering why something isn't working in a client you signed into remotely, because it is waiting on you to authorize the action and you didn't notice the notification from Amber. As you use the application, you get used to the need to check for such authorization requests from time to time, or when something isn't working as expected.

By default, Amber will use relay.nsec.app to communicate with whichever Nostr app you are connecting to. You can set a different relay for this purpose, if you like, though not just any relay will support the event kinds that Amber uses for remote signing. You can even run your own relay just for your own signing purposes. In fact, the creator of Amber has a relay application you can run on your phone, called Citrine, that can be used for signing with any web app you are using locally on your phone. This is definitely more of an advanced option, but it is there for you if you want it. For most users, sticking with relay.nsec.app will be just fine, especially since the contents of the events sent back and forth for signing are all encrypted.

Something many users may not realize is that this remote signing feature allows for issuing signing permissions to team members. For instance, if anyone ever joined me in writing reviews, I could issue them a connection string from Amber, and limit their permissions to just posting long-form draft events. Anything else they tried to do would require my explicit approval each time. Moreover, I could revoke those permissions if I ever felt they were being abused, without the need to start over with a whole new npub. Of course, this requires that your phone is online whenever a team member is trying to sign using the connection string you issued, and it requires you pay attention to your notifications so you can approve or reject requests you have not set to auto-approve. However, this is probably only useful for small teams, and larger businesses will want to find a more robust solution for managing access to their npub, such as Keycast from nostr:npub1zuuajd7u3sx8xu92yav9jwxpr839cs0kc3q6t56vd5u9q033xmhsk6c2uc.

The method for establishing a connection between Amber and a Nostr app for remote signing can vary for each app. Most, at minimum, will support obtaining a connection string from Amber that starts with "bunker://" and pasting it in at the time of login. Then you just need to approve the connection request from Amber and the client will log you in and send any subsequent signing requests to Amber using the same connection string.

Some clients will also offer the option to scan a QR code to connect the client to Amber. This is quite convenient, but just remember that this also means the client is setting which relay will be used for communication between the two. Clients with this option will also have a connection string you can copy and paste into Amber to achieve the same purpose. For instance, you may need this option if you are trying to connect to an app on your phone and therefore can't scan the QR code using Amber on the same phone.

Multiple Accounts

Amber does not lock you into using it with only a single set of keys. You can add all of your Nostr "accounts" to Amber and use it for signing events for each independently. Of course, Nostr doesn't actually have "accounts" in the traditional sense. Your identity is simply your key-pair, and Amber stores and accesses each private key as needed.

When first signing in using native Android signing as described above, Amber will default to whichever account was most recently selected, but you can switch to the account that is needed before approving the request. After initial login, Amber will automatically detect the account that the signing request is for.

Key Backup & Restore

Amber allows multiple ways to back up your private key. As most users would expect, you can get your standard nsec and copy/paste it to a password manager, but you can also obtain your private key as a list of mnemonic seed words, an encrypted version of your key called an ncryptsec, or even a QR code of your nsec or ncryptsec.

Additionally, in order to gain access to this information, Amber requires you to enter your device's PIN or use biometric authentication. This isn't cold-storage level protection for your private key by any means, especially since your phone is an internet connected device and does not store your key within a secure element, but it is about as secure as you can ask for while having your key accessible for signing Nostr events.

Tor Support

While Amber does not have Tor support within the app itself, it does support connecting to Tor through Orbot. This would be used with remote signing so that Amber would not connect directly over clearnet to the relay used for communication with the Nostr app requesting the signature. Instead, Amber would connect through Tor, so the relay would not see your IP address. This means you can utilize the remote signing option without compromising your anonymity.

Additional Security

Amber allows the user the option to require either biometric or PIN authentication before approving signing requests. This can provide that extra bit of assurance that no one will be able to sign events using your private key if they happen to gain access to your phone. The PIN you set in Amber is also independent from the PIN to unlock your device, allowing for separation of access.

Can My Grandma Use It?

Score: 4.6 / 5 (Updated 4/21/2025)

At the end of the day, Amber is a tool for those who have some concept of the importance of protecting their private key by not pasting it into every Nostr client that comes along. This concept in itself is not terribly approachable to an average person. They are used to just plugging their password into every service they use, and even worse, they usually have the same password for everything so they can more readily remember it. The idea that they should never enter their "Nostr password" into any Nostr application would never occur to them unless someone first explained how cryptography works related to public/private key pairs.

That said, I think there can be some improvements made to how users are introduced to these concepts, and that a signer application like Amber might be ideal for the job. Considering Amber as a new user's first touch-point with Nostr, I think it holds up well, but could be somewhat streamlined.

Upon opening the app, the user is prompted to either use their existing private key or "Create a new Nostr account." This is straightforward enough. "Account" is not a technically correct term with Nostr, but it is a term that new users would be familiar with and understand the basic concept.

The next screen announces that the account is ready, and presents the user with their public key, explaining that it is "a sort of username" that will allow others to find them on Nostr. While it is good to explain this to the user, it is unnecessary information at this point. This screen also prompts the user to set a nickname and set a password to encrypt their private key. Since the backup options also allow the user to set this password, I think this step could be pushed to a later time. This screen would better serve the new user if it simply prompted them to set a nickname and short bio that could be saved to a few default relays.

Of course, Amber is currently prompting for a password to be set up-front because the next screen requires the new user to download a "backup kit" in order to continue. While I do believe it is a good idea to encourage the creation of a backup, it is not crucial to do so immediately upon creation of a new npub that has nothing at stake if the private key is lost. This is something the UI could remind the user to do at a later time, reducing the friction of profile creation, and expediting getting them into the action.

Outside of these minor onboarding friction points, I think Amber does a great job of explaining to the user the purpose of each of its features, all within the app and without any need to reference external documentation. As long as the user understands the basic concept that their private key is being stored by Amber in order to sign requests from other Nostr apps, so they don't have to be given the private key, Amber is very good about explaining the rest without getting too far into the technical weeds.

The most glaring usability issue with Amber is that it isn't available in the Play Store. Average users expect to be able to find applications they can trust in their mobile device's default app store. There is a valid argument to be made that they are incorrect in this assumption, but that doesn't change the fact that this is the assumption most people make. They believe that applications in the Play Store are "safe" and that anything they can't install through the Play Store is suspect. The prompts that the Android operating system requires the user to approve when installing "unknown apps" certainly doesn't help with this impression.

Now, I absolutely love the Zapstore from nostr:npub1wf4pufsucer5va8g9p0rj5dnhvfeh6d8w0g6eayaep5dhps6rsgs43dgh9, but it doesn't do much to alleviate this issue. Users will still need to be convinced that it is safe to install the Zapstore from the GitHub repo, and then install Amber from there. Furthermore, this adds yet another step to the onboarding process.

Instead of:

• Install Amber
• Set up your keys
• Install the client you want to use
• Log in with Amber

The process becomes:

• Go to the Zapstore GitHub and download the latest version from the releases page.
• Install the APK you downloaded, allowing any prompt to install unknown apps.
• Open Zapstore and install Amber, allowing any prompt to install unknown apps again.
• Open Amber and set up your keys.
• Install the client you want to use
• Log in with Amber

An application as important as Amber for protecting users' private keys should be as readily available to the new user as possible. New users are the ones most prone to making mistakes that could compromise their private keys. Amber should be available to them in the Play Store.

UPDATE: As of version 3.2.8 released on 4/21/2025, the onboarding flow for Amber has been greatly improved! Now, when selecting to set up a new "account" the user is informed on the very next screen, "Your Nostr account is ready!" and given their public key/npub. The only field the user must fill in is their "nickname"/display name and hit "Continue."

From there the user is asked if they want Amber to automatically approve basic actions, or manually approve each app, and then they are shown a new Applications screen, with a prompt to create a backup of their account. This prompt persists until the user has done so.

As you can see, the user is also encouraged to find applications that can be used with Amber with links to nostrapps.com and the Zapstore.

Thanks to these updates, Amber is now the smoothest and most user-friendly onboarding experience I have seen for Nostr to date. Sure, it doesn't have anything for setting up a profile picture or lightning address, but that is better done in a client like Amethyst or YakiHonne, anyway. Just tap "create," type in a handle to call yourself, and you're done!

How do UI Look?

Score: 4.5 / 5

Amber's UI can be described as clean but utilitarian. But then, Amber is a tool, so this is somewhat expected. It is not an app you will be spending a lot of time in, so the UI just needs to be serviceable. I would say it accomplishes this and then some. UI elements are generally easy to understand what they do, and page headings fill in the gaps where that is not the case.

I am not the biggest fan of the color-scheme, particularly in light-mode, but it is not bad in dark-mode at all, and Amber follows whatever theme you have set for your device in that respect. Additionally, the color choice does make sense given the application's name.

It must also be taken into consideration that Amber is almost entirely the product of a single developer's work. He has done a great job producing an app that is not only useful, but pleasant to interact with. The same cannot be said for most utility apps I have previously used, with interfaces that clearly made good design the lowest priority. While Amber's UI may not be the most beautiful Nostr app I have seen, design was clearly not an afterthought, either, and it is appreciated.

Relay Management

Score: 4.9 / 5

Even though Amber is not a Nostr client, where users can browse notes from their favorite npubs, it still relies heavily on relays for some of its features. Primarily, it uses relays for communicating with other Nostr apps for remote signing requests. However, it also uses relays to fetch profile data, so that each private key you add to Amber will automatically load your chosen username and profile picture.

In the relay settings, users can choose which relays are being used to fetch profile data, and which relays will be used by default when creating new remote signing connection strings.

The user can also see which relays are currently connected to Amber and even look at the information that has been passed back and forth on each of those active relays. This information about actively connected relays is not only available within the application, but also in the notification that Amber has to keep in your device's notification tray in order to continue to operate in the background while you are using other apps.

Optionality is the name of the game when it comes to how Amber handles relay selection. The user can just stick with the default signing relay, use their own relay as the default, or even use a different relay for each Nostr application that they connect to for remote signing. Amber gives the user an incredible amount of flexibility in this regard.

In addition to all of this, because not all relays accept the event types needed for remote signing, when you add a relay address to Amber, it automatically tests that relay to see if it will work. This alone can be a massive time saver, so users aren't trying to use relays that don't support remote signing and wondering why they can't log into noStrudel with the connection string they got from Amber.

The only way I could see relay management being improved would be some means of giving the user relay recommendations, in case they want to use a relay other than relay.nsec.app, but they aren't sure which other relays will accept remote signing events. That said, most users who want to use a different relay for signing remote events will likely be using their own, in which case recommendations aren't needed.

Current Users' Questions

The AskNostr hashtag can be a good indication of the pain points that other users are currently having with any Nostr application. Here are some of the most common questions submitted about Amber in the last two months.

nostr:nevent1qqsfrdr68fafgcvl8dgnhm9hxpsjxuks78afxhu8yewhtyf3d7mkg9gpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumn0wd68ytnzv9hxgq3qkgh77xxt7hhtt4u528hecnx69rhagla8jj3tclgyf9wvkxa6dc0sxp0e6m

This is a good example of Amber working correctly, but the app the user is trying to log into not working. In my experience with #Olas in particular, it sometimes allows remote signer login, and sometimes doesn't. Amber will receive the signing request and I will approve it, but Olas remains on the login screen.

If Amber is receiving the signing requests, and you are approving them, the fault is likely with the application you are trying to log into.

That's it. That's all the repeated questions I could find. Oh, there were a few one-off questions where relay.nsec.app wouldn't connect, or where the user's out-of-date web browser was the issue. Outside of that, though, there were no common questions about how to use Amber, and that is a testament to Amber's ease of use all on its own.

Wrap Up

If you are on Android and you are not already using Amber to protect your nsec, please do yourself a favor and get it installed. It's not at all complicated to set up, and it will make trying out all the latest Nostr clients a safe and pleasant experience.

If you are a client developer and you have not added support for NIP-55 or NIP-46, do your users the courtesy of respecting the sanctity of their private keys. Even developers who have no intention of compromising their users' keys can inadvertently do so. Make that eventuality impossible by adding support for NIP-55 and NIP-46 signing.

Finally, I apologize for the extended time it took me to get this review finished. The time I have available is scarce, Nostr is distracting, and nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5 kept improving Amber even as I was putting it through its paces over the last two months. Keep shipping, my friend! You have made one of the most useful tools we have seen for Nostr to date!

Now... What should I review next?

@ 58537364:705b4b85

คนเรามักจะเห็นคุณค่าของสิ่งใด ส่วนใหญ่ก็ใน ๒ สถานการณ์คือ หนึ่ง ตอนที่ยังไม่ได้มา หรือ สอง ตอนที่เสียไปแล้ว

อันนี้มันเป็นโศกนาฏกรรม ที่เกิดขึ้นกับผู้คนจำนวนมาก การที่คนเรามีสิ่งดีๆ แต่ว่าเราไม่เห็นคุณค่า เพราะว่าเรามองออกไปนอกตัว ไปเห็นแต่สิ่งที่ตัวเองไม่มี อยากจะได้มา

คล้ายๆ กับเรื่อง หมาคาบเนื้อในนิทานอีสป ตอนเด็กๆ เราคงจำได้ มีหมาตัวหนึ่งคาบเนื้อมา เนื้อชิ้นใหญ่เลย มันดีใจมากแล้วมันก็วิ่งไปยังที่ที่ มันจะได้กินเนื้ออย่างมีความสุข มีช่วงหนึ่งก็ต้องเดินข้ามสะพาน มันก็ชะโงกหน้าไปมองที่ลำธารหรือลำคลอง

ก็เห็นเงาตัวเอง เงานั่นมันก็ใหญ่ แล้วมันก็พบว่าในเงานั้น เนื้อในเงามันใหญ่กว่าเนื้อที่ตัวเองคาบ มันอยากได้เนื้อก้อนนั้นมากเลย เพราะว่ามันเป็นก้อนที่ใหญ่กว่า

มันก็เลยอ้าปาก เพื่อที่จะไปงับเนื้อในเงานั้น พอมันอ้าปาก ก็ปรากฏว่าเนื้อในปาก ก็หลุดตกลงแม่น้ำ แล้วเนื้อในเงานั้นก็หายไป เป็นอันว่าหมดเลย อดทั้ง 2 อย่าง .

ฉะนั้น คนเราถ้าหากเรา กลับมาเห็นคุณค่าของสิ่งที่เรามีอยู่ เราจะมีความสุขได้ง่าย อาจจะไม่ใช่สิ่งของ อาจจะไม่ใช่ผู้คน แต่อาจจะเป็นสุขภาพของเรา

อาจจะได้แก่ ลมหายใจของเรา ที่ยังหายใจได้ปกติ รวมถึงการที่ เรายังเดินเหินไปไหนมาไหนได้ การที่เรายังมองเห็น การที่เรายังได้ยิน

หลายคนมีสิ่งนี้อยู่ในตัว แต่กลับไม่เห็นค่า และไม่รู้สึกว่าตัวเองโชคดี กลับไปมองว่า ฉันยังไม่มีโน่นยังไม่มีนี่ ไม่มีบ้าน ไม่มีรถ ไม่มีเงิน

รู้สึกว่าทุกข์ระทมเหลือเกิน

ทำไมฉันจึงลำบากแบบนี้ ทั้งที่ตัวเองก็มีสิ่งดีๆ ในตัว สุขภาพ ความปกติสุข อิสรภาพที่เดินไปไหนมาไหนได้

แต่กลับไม่เห็นค่า เพราะว่ามัวแต่ไปสนใจสิ่งที่ตัวเองยังไม่มี

ซึ่งเป็นอนาคต

ถ้าเราหันกลับมาเห็นคุณค่าของสิ่งที่เรามีอยู่ แล้วก็ไม่ไปพะวงหรือให้ความสนใจกับสิ่งที่ยังไม่มี เราจะมีความสุขได้ง่าย อันนี้คือ ความหมายหนึ่งของการทำปัจจุบันให้ดีที่สุด

…

การทำปัจจุบันให้ดีที่สุด พระอาจารย์ไพศาล วิสาโล

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Most people would define “maintenance” as “fixing stuff that’s broken”. If you told them that that’s “repair” and that maintenance is different, they’d reply that you should get your head out of the dictionary and stop being so pedantic. After all, the difference is semantic at best and nobody cares! My argument is that you should care, and that the difference will save your household, your business, and your society.

I’ve gotten way ahead of myself. Let’s start with defining maintenance and repair so we can understand the differences. Repair, to borrow from above, is fixing stuff that’s broken. If your pencil snaps in half and you tape it back together, that’s repair. If you drive over a nail and the shop patches your tire, that’s repair. Maintenance is when you do work to prevent stuff from breaking. Trimming your fingernails prevents them from cracking or ripping.

When you define maintenance and describe examples out loud the benefits sound obvious. Yet we struggle with even the most basic maintenance items. This is because unlike with repair, maintenance requires a form of intentional advanced thinking similar to delayed gratification. If something is broken the need for repair is immediate and usually quite visible. Almost no thinking at all is needed to see that a tire is flat, but regularly cleaning your shower to avoid mold requires thinking about future effects. Some effects are even further removed; for example, changing your HVAC filters leads to higher air quality, which leads to fewer respiratory issues, which leads to better sleep, which leads to improved mood and productivity.

Reactive thinkers struggle deeply with the idea of maintenance. It’s a bit like the Marshmallow Test (see Which Disney Princess Are You (In The Workplace)?) except instead of a larger reward later, it’s less expense later. Putting off maintenance is not always due to high time preference though; sometimes there are monetary restrictions. Terry Pratchett has a wonderful example of this in his book “Men at Arms” where a character compares cheap boots that only last a short while to more expensive ones that last much longer. A poor person can’t afford the larger upfront cost of the ones that last longer, so they’re doomed to spend more money on several pairs of cheaper boots over the same time period.

One thing you can do is choose options that require less maintenance overall. “Low-maintenance” can be sought out in almost any category. Vehicles, appliances, technology, even friends! I would describe myself as a low-maintenance spouse. Our 2003 Toyota RAV4 is also low-maintenance. Our dog, on the other hand, is rather high-maintenance.

Want help picking out low-maintenance technology for your organization? You can find us as scalebright.ca.

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

It seems like most Christians today have lost their reverence and awe of God. We’ve attributed God’s awesome creation by the word of His mouth to random chance and a Big Bang. We’ve attributed the many layers of sediment to millions and billions of years of time instead of God’s judgment of evil. We’ve emphasized His love and mercy to the point that we’ve forgotten about His holiness and righteous wrath. We’ve brought God down to our level and made Him either our “buddy” or made Him our magic genie servant, who is just there to answer our every want and whim.

The God of the Bible is a holy and awesome God who should be both loved and feared.

The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge;\ Fools despise wisdom and instruction. (Proverbs 1:7)

The God of the Bible is the Lord of Lords and King of Kings who “… upholds all things by the word of His power. …” (Hebrews 1:3). Yes, God loves us as sons. Yes, God is merciful. Yes, through Jesus we have the blessed opportunity to approach God directly. None of that means we get to treat God like just another friend. We are to approach God with fear and trembling and worship Him in reverence and awe.

Worship the Lord with reverence And rejoice with trembling. (Psalm 2:11)

Part of the problem is that our culture just doesn’t show reverence to authority. It focuses on self and freedom. The whole thought of reverence for authority is incomprehensible for many. Look at this Psalm of worship:

The Lord reigns, let the peoples tremble;\ He is enthroned above the cherubim, let the earth shake!\ The Lord is great in Zion,\ And He is exalted above all the peoples.\ Let them praise Your great and awesome name;\ Holy is He. (Psalm 99:1-3)

This is the way we should view God and the proper attitude for approaching God.

Another issue is that we don’t study what God has done in the past. In the Old Testament, God commanded the Israelites to setup monuments of remembrance and to teach their kids all of the great things God had done for them. When they failed to do so, Israel drifted astray.

You shall teach them to your sons, talking of them when you sit in your house and when you walk along the road and when you lie down and when you rise up. (Deuteronomy 11:19)

God has given us the Bible, His word, so that we can know Him, know His character, and know His great deeds. When we fail to be in His word daily, we can forget (or not even know) the greatness of our God.

Establish Your word to Your servant,\ As that which produces reverence for You. (Psalm 119:38)

Do you love God’s word like this? Do you hunger for God’s word? Do you seek to know everything about God that you can know? When we love someone or something, we want to know everything about it.

Princes persecute me without cause,\ But my heart stands in awe of Your words.\ **I rejoice at Your word,\ As one who finds great spoil. \ (Psalm 119:161-162) {emphasis mine}

In addition to what we can learn about God in the Bible, we also need to remember what God has done in our own lives. We need to dwell on what God has done for us. We can just try to remember. Even better (I’ll admit this is a weakness for me), write down answered prayers, blessings, and other things God has done for you. My son has been writing down one blessing every day for over a year. What an example he is!

After we have thought about what God has done for us and those we care about, we should praise Him for His great works.

Shout joyfully to God, all the earth;\ Sing the glory of His name;\ Make His praise glorious.\ Say to God, “How awesome are Your works!\ Because of the greatness of Your power \ Your enemies will give feigned obedience to You.\ All the earth will worship You,\ And will sing praises to You;\ They will sing praises to Your name.” Selah.\ **Come and see the works of God,\ Who is awesome in His deeds toward the sons of men. \ (Psalm 66:1-5) {emphasis mine}

There is nothing we can do to earn salvation from God, but we should be in awe of what He has done for us leading to submission and obedience in gratitude.

Therefore, since we receive a kingdom which cannot be shaken, let us show gratitude, by which we may offer to God an acceptable service with reverence and awe; for our God is a consuming fire. (Hebrews 12:28-29) {emphasis mine}

Are you thankful for your blessings or resentful for what you don’t have? Do you worship God or take things He has provided for granted? Do you tell the world the awesome things God has done for you or do you stay silent? Do you claim to be a Christian, but live a life no different than those around you?

Then the Lord said,

“Because this people draw near with their words\ And honor Me with their lip service,\ But they remove their hearts far from Me,\ And their reverence for Me consists of tradition learned by rote, (Isaiah 29:13)

I hope this passage does not describe your relation ship with our awesome God. He deserves so much more. Instead we should be zealous to praise God and share His goodness with those around us.

Who is there to harm you if you prove zealous for what is good? But even if you should suffer for the sake of righteousness, you are blessed. And do not fear their intimidation, and do not be troubled, but sanctify Christ as Lord in your hearts, always being ready to make a defense to everyone who asks you to give an account for the hope that is in you, yet with gentleness and reverence; (1 Peter 3:13-15) {emphasis mine}

Did you know that you can even show reverence by your every day work?

By faith Noah, being warned by God about things not yet seen, in reverence prepared an ark for the salvation of his household, by which he condemned the world, and became an heir of the righteousness which is according to faith. (Hebrews 11:7) {emphasis mine}

When Noah stepped out in faith and obedience to God and built the ark as God commanded, despite the fact that the people around him probably thought he was crazy building a boat on dry ground that had never flooded, his work was a kind of reverence to God. Are there areas in your life where you can obey God in reverence to His awesomeness? Do you realize that quality work in obedience to God can be a form of worship?

Just going above and beyond in your job can be a form of worship of God if you are working extra hard to honor Him. Obedience is another form of worship and reverence.

Then Zerubbabel the son of Shealtiel, and Joshua the son of Jehozadak, the high priest, with all the remnant of the people, obeyed the voice of the Lord their God and the words of Haggai the prophet, as the Lord their God had sent him. And the people showed reverence for the Lord. (Haggai 1:12) {emphasis mine}

Too many people have put the word of men (especially scientists) above the word of God and have tried to change the clear meaning of the Bible. I used to think it strange how the Bible goes through the days of creation and ends each day with “and there was evening and there was morning, the xth day.” Since a day has an evening and a morning, that seemed redundant. Why did God speak in this manner? God knew that a day would come when many scientist would try to disprove God and would claim that these days were not 24 hour days, but long ages. When a writer is trying to convey long ages, the writer does not mention evening/morning and doesn’t count the days.1

When we no longer see God as speaking the universe and everything in it into existence, we tend to not see God as an awesome God. We don’t see His power. We don’t see His knowledge. We don’t see His goodness. We also don’t see His authority. Why do we have to obey God? Because He created us and because He upholds us. Without Him we would not exist. Our creator has the authority to command His creation. When we compromise in this area, we lose our submission, our awe, and our reverence. (For more on the subject see my series.) When we believe His great works, especially those spoken of in Genesis 1-11 and in Exodus, we can’t help but be in awe of our God.

For the word of the Lord is upright,\ And all His work is done in faithfulness.\ He loves righteousness and justice;\ The earth is full of the lovingkindness of the Lord.\ By the word of the Lord the heavens were made,\ And by the breath of His mouth all their host.\ He gathers the waters of the sea together as a heap;\ He lays up the deeps in storehouses.\ **Let all the earth fear the Lord;\ Let all the inhabitants of the world stand in awe of Him. \ (Psalm 33:4-8) {emphasis mine}

Remembering God’s great works, we can’t help but worship in awe and reverence.

By awesome deeds You answer us in righteousness, O God of our salvation,\ *You who are the trust of all the ends of the earth* and of the farthest sea;\ Who establishes the mountains by His strength,\ Being girded with might;\ Who stills the roaring of the seas,\ The roaring of their waves,\ And the tumult of the peoples.\ They who dwell in the ends of the earth stand in awe of Your signs;\ You make the dawn and the sunset shout for joy. \ (Psalm 65:5-8) {emphasis mine}

If we truly do have awe and reverence for our God, we should be emboldened to tell those around us of His great works.

I will tell of Your name to my brethren;\ In the midst of the assembly I will praise You.\ You who fear the Lord, praise Him;\ All you descendants of Jacob, glorify Him,\ And stand in awe of Him, all you descendants of Israel. \ (Psalm 22:22-23) {emphasis mine}

May God grant you the wisdom to see His awesomeness and to trust Him, serve Him, obey Him, and worship Him as He so rightly deserves. May you always have a right view of God and a hunger for His word and a personal relationship with Him. To God be the Glory!

Trust Jesus

FYI, these are a few more passages on the subject that are helpful, but didn’t fit in the flow of my post.

Great is the Lord, and highly to be praised,\ And His greatness is unsearchable.\ One generation shall praise Your works to another,\ And shall declare Your mighty acts.\ On the glorious splendor of Your majesty\ And on Your wonderful works, I will meditate.\ Men shall speak of the power of Your awesome acts,\ And I will tell of Your greatness. (Psalm 145:3-6)

The boastful shall not stand before Your eyes;\ You hate all who do iniquity.\ You destroy those who speak falsehood;\ The Lord abhors the man of bloodshed and deceit.\ But as for me, by Your abundant lovingkindness I will enter Your house,\ At Your holy temple I will bow in reverence for You. (Psalm 5:5-7) {emphasis mine}

If you do not listen, and if you do not take it to heart to give honor to My name,” says the Lord of hosts, “then I will send the curse upon you and I will curse your blessings; and indeed, I have cursed them already, because you are not taking it to heart. Behold, I am going to rebuke your offspring, and I will spread refuse on your faces, the refuse of your feasts; and you will be taken away with it. Then you will know that I have sent this commandment to you, that My covenant may continue with Levi,” says the Lord of hosts. “My covenant with him was one of life and peace, and I gave them to him as an object of reverence; so he revered Me and stood in awe of My name. (Malachi 2:2-5) {emphasis mine}

@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

I dare to claim that the big factor is the absence of an infinite feed design.

Modern social media landscape sucks for a myriad of reasons, but oh boy does the infinite feed take the crapcake. It's not just bad on it's own, it's emblematic of most, if not all other ways social media have deteriorated into an enshitification spiral. Let's see at just three things I hate about it the most.

1) It's addictive: In the race for your attention, every addictive design element helps. But infinite feed is addictive almost by default. Users are expected to pull the figurative lever until they hit a jackpot. Just one more reel, then I'll go to sleep.

2) Autonomy? What's that? You are not the one driving your experience. No. You are just a passenger passively absorbing what the feed feeds you.

3) Echo chambers. The algorithm might be more to blame here, but the infinite feed and it's super-limited exploration options sure don't help. Your feed only goes two ways - into the past and into the comfortable.

And I could go on, and on...

The point it, if the goal of every big tech company is to have us mindlessly and helplessly consume their products, without agency and opposition (and it is $$$), then the infinite feed gets them half-way there.

Let's get rid of it. For the sake of humanity.

Aphantasia [^1] Version: 1.0.2 Alpha

What is Aphantasia?

I like to call it a social network for graph enthusiasts. It's a place where your thoughts live in time and space, interconnected with others and explorable in a graph view.

The code is open-source and you can take a look at it on GitHub. There you can find more information about contributions, API usage and other details related to the software.

There is also an accompanying youtube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeLOt-45rJM

[^1]: Aphantasia the software is named after aphantasia the condition - see Wikipedia for more information.

https://stacker.news/items/988754

@ 26769dac:498e333b

Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up

We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time

@ c3c7122c:607731d7

Help!

Calling all El Salvador Nostriches! If you currently live in SV, I need your help and am offering several bounties (0.001, 0.01, and 0.1 BTC).

In Brief

In short, I am pursuing El Salvador citizenship by birthright (through my grandmother). I’ve struggled to progress because her name varies on different documents. I need someone to help me push harder to get past this barrier, or connect me with information or people who can work on my behalf. I am offering:

• 0.001 BTC (100k sats) for information that will help me progress from my current situation
• 0.01 BTC (1 MM sats) to get me in touch with someone that is more impactful than the immigration lawyer I already spoke with
• 0.1 BTC (10 MM sats) if your efforts help me obtain citizenship for me or my father

Background

My grandma married my grandfather (an American Marine) and moved to the states where my father was born. I have some official and unofficial documents where her name varies in spelling, order of first/middle name, and addition of her father’s last name. So every doc basically has a different name for her. I was connected with an english-speaking immigration lawyer in SV who hit a dead end when searching for her official ID because the city hall in her city had burned down so there was no record of her info. He gave up at that point. I find it odd that it was so easy to change your name back then, but they are more strict now with the records from that time.

I believe SV citizenship is my birthright and have several personal reasons for pursuing this. I want someone to act on my behalf who will try harder to work the system (by appeal, loophole, or even bribe if I have to). If you are local and can help me with this, I’d greatly appreciate any efforts you make.

Cheers!

Corey San Diego

@ 7460b7fd:4fc4e74b

如果比特币发明了真正的钱，那么 Crypto 是什么？

引言

比特币诞生之初就以“数字黄金”姿态示人，被支持者誉为人类历史上第一次发明了真正意义上的钱——一种不依赖国家信用、总量恒定且不可篡改的硬通货。然而十多年过去，比特币之后蓬勃而起的加密世界（Crypto）已经远超“货币”范畴：从智能合约平台到去中心组织，从去央行的稳定币到戏谑荒诞的迷因币，Crypto 演化出一个丰富而混沌的新生态。这不禁引发一个根本性的追问：如果说比特币解决了“真金白银”的问题，那么 Crypto 又完成了什么发明？

Crypto 与政治的碰撞：随着Crypto版图扩张，全球政治势力也被裹挟进这场金融变革洪流（示意图）。比特币的出现重塑了货币信用，但Crypto所引发的却是一场更深刻的政治与治理结构实验。从华尔街到华盛顿，从散户论坛到主权国家，越来越多人意识到：Crypto不只是技术或金融现象，而是一种全新的政治表达结构正在萌芽。正如有激进论者所断言的：“比特币发明了真正的钱，而Crypto则在发明新的政治。”价格K线与流动性曲线，或许正成为这个时代社群意志和社会价值观的新型投射。

冲突结构：当价格挑战选票

传统政治中，选票是人民意志的载体，一人一票勾勒出民主治理的正统路径。而在链上的加密世界里，骤升骤降的价格曲线和真金白银的买卖行为却扮演起了选票的角色：资金流向成了民意走向，市场多空成为立场表决。价格行为取代选票，这听来匪夷所思，却已在Crypto社群中成为日常现实。每一次代币的抛售与追高，都是社区对项目决策的即时“投票”；每一根K线的涨跌，都折射出社区意志的赞同或抗议。市场行为本身承担了决策权与象征权——价格即政治，正在链上蔓延。

这一新生政治形式与旧世界的民主机制形成了鲜明冲突。bitcoin.org中本聪在比特币白皮书中提出“一CPU一票”的工作量证明共识，用算力投票取代了人为决策bitcoin.org。而今，Crypto更进一步，用资本市场的涨跌来取代传统政治的选举。支持某项目？直接购入其代币推高市值；反对某提案？用脚投票抛售资产。相比漫长的选举周期和层层代议制，链上市场提供了近乎实时的“公投”机制。但这种机制也引发巨大争议：资本的投票天然偏向持币多者（富者）的意志，是否意味着加密政治更为金权而非民权？持币多寡成为影响力大小，仿佛选举演变成了“一币一票”，巨鲸富豪俨然掌握更多话语权。这种与民主平等原则的冲突，成为Crypto政治形式饱受质疑的核心张力之一。

尽管如此，我们已经目睹市场投票在Crypto世界塑造秩序的威力：2016年以太坊因DAO事件分叉时，社区以真金白银“投票”决定了哪条链获得未来。arkhamintelligence.com结果是新链以太坊（ETH）成为主流，其市值一度超过2,800亿美元，而坚持原则的以太经典（ETC）市值不足35亿美元，不及前者的八十分之一arkhamintelligence.com。市场选择清楚地昭示了社区的政治意志。同样地，在比特币扩容之争、各类硬分叉博弈中，无不是由投资者和矿工用资金与算力投票，胜者存续败者黯然。价格成为裁决纷争的最终选票，冲击着传统“选票决胜”的政治理念。Crypto的价格民主，与现代代议民主正面相撞，激起当代政治哲思中前所未有的冲突火花。

治理与分配

XRP对决SEC成为了加密世界“治理与分配”冲突的经典战例。2020年底，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）突然起诉Ripple公司，指控其发行的XRP代币属于未注册证券，消息一出直接引爆市场恐慌。XRP价格应声暴跌，一度跌去超过60%，最低触及0.21美元coindesk.com。曾经位居市值前三的XRP险些被打入谷底，监管的强硬姿态似乎要将这个项目彻底扼杀。

然而XRP社区没有选择沉默。 大批长期持有者组成了自称“XRP军团”（XRP Army）的草根力量，在社交媒体上高调声援Ripple，对抗监管威胁。面对SEC的指控，他们集体发声，质疑政府选择性执法，声称以太坊当年发行却“逍遥法外”，只有Ripple遭到不公对待coindesk.com。正如《福布斯》的评论所言：没人预料到愤怒的加密散户投资者会掀起法律、政治和社交媒体领域的‘海啸式’反击，痛斥监管机构背弃了保护投资者的承诺crypto-law.us。这种草根抵抗监管的话语体系迅速形成：XRP持有者不但在网上掀起舆论风暴，还采取实际行动向SEC施压。他们发起了请愿，抨击SEC背离保护投资者初衷、诉讼给个人投资者带来巨大伤害，号召停止对Ripple的上诉纠缠——号称这是在捍卫全球加密用户的共同利益bitget.com。一场由民间主导的反监管运动就此拉开帷幕。

Ripple公司则选择背水一战，拒绝和解，在法庭上与SEC针锋相对地鏖战了近三年之久。Ripple坚称XRP并非证券，不应受到SEC管辖，即使面临沉重法律费用和业务压力也不妥协。2023年，这场持久战迎来了标志性转折：美国法庭作出初步裁决，认定XRP在二级市场的流通不构成证券coindesk.com。这一胜利犹如给沉寂已久的XRP注入强心针——消息公布当天XRP价格飙涨近一倍，盘中一度逼近1美元大关coindesk.com。沉重监管阴影下苟延残喘的项目，凭借司法层面的突破瞬间重获生机。这不仅是Ripple的胜利，更被支持者视为整个加密行业对SEC强权的一次胜仗。

XRP的对抗路线与某些“主动合规”的项目形成了鲜明对比。 稳定币USDC的发行方Circle、美国最大合规交易所Coinbase等选择了一条迎合监管的道路：它们高调拥抱现行法规，希望以合作换取生存空间。然而现实却给了它们沉重一击。USDC稳定币在监管风波中一度失去美元锚定，哪怕Circle及时披露储备状况也无法阻止恐慌蔓延，大批用户迅速失去信心，短时间内出现数十亿美元的赎回潮blockworks.co。Coinbase则更为直接：即便它早已注册上市、反复向监管示好，2023年仍被SEC指控为未注册证券交易所reuters.com，卷入漫长诉讼漩涡。可见，在迎合监管的策略下，这些机构非但未能换来监管青睐，反而因官司缠身或用户流失而丧失市场信任。 相比之下，XRP以对抗求生存的路线反而赢得了投资者的眼光：价格的涨跌成为社区投票的方式，抗争的勇气反过来强化了市场对它的信心。

同样引人深思的是另一种迥异的治理路径：技术至上的链上治理。 以MakerDAO为代表的去中心化治理模式曾被寄予厚望——MKR持币者投票决策、算法维持稳定币Dai的价值，被视为“代码即法律”的典范。然而，这套纯技术治理在市场层面却未能形成广泛认同，亦无法激发群体性的情绪动员。复杂晦涩的机制使得普通投资者难以参与其中，MakerDAO的治理讨论更多停留在极客圈子内部，在社会大众的政治对话中几乎听不见它的声音。相比XRP对抗监管所激发的铺天盖地关注，MakerDAO的治理实验显得默默无闻、难以“出圈”。这也说明，如果一种治理实践无法连接更广泛的利益诉求和情感共鸣，它在社会政治层面就难以形成影响力。

XRP之争的政治象征意义由此凸显： 它展示了一条“以市场对抗国家”的斗争路线，即通过代币价格的集体行动来回应监管权力的施压。在这场轰动业界的对决中，价格即是抗议的旗帜，涨跌映射着政治立场。XRP对SEC的胜利被视作加密世界向旧有权力宣告的一次胜利：资本市场的投票器可以撼动监管者的强权。这种“价格即政治”的张力，正是Crypto世界前所未有的社会实验：去中心化社区以市场行为直接对抗国家权力，在无形的价格曲线中凝聚起政治抗争的力量，向世人昭示加密货币不仅有技术和资本属性，更蕴含着不可小觑的社会能量和政治意涵。

不可归零的政治资本

Meme 币的本质并非廉价或易造，而在于其构建了一种“无法归零”的社群生存结构。 对于传统观点而言，多数 meme 币只是短命的投机游戏：价格暴涨暴跌后一地鸡毛，创始人套现跑路，投资者血本无归，然后“大家转去炒下一个”theguardian.com。然而，meme 币社群的独特之处在于——失败并不意味着终结，而更像是运动的逗号而非句号。一次币值崩盘后，持币的草根们往往并未散去；相反，他们汲取教训，准备东山再起。这种近乎“不死鸟”的循环，使得 meme 币运动呈现出一种数字政治循环的特质：价格可以归零，但社群的政治热情和组织势能不归零。正如研究者所指出的，加密领域中的骗局、崩盘等冲击并不会摧毁生态，反而成为让系统更加强韧的“健康应激”，令整个行业在动荡中变得更加反脆弱cointelegraph.com。对应到 meme 币，每一次暴跌和重挫，都是社群自我进化、卷土重来的契机。这个去中心化群体打造出一种自组织的安全垫，失败者得以在瓦砾上重建家园。对于草根社群、少数派乃至体制的“失败者”而言，meme 币提供了一个永不落幕的抗争舞台，一种真正反脆弱的政治性。正因如此，我们看到诸多曾被嘲笑的迷因项目屡败屡战：例如 Dogecoin 自2013年问世后历经八年沉浮，早已超越玩笑属性，成为互联网史上最具韧性的迷因之一frontiersin.org；支撑 Dogecoin 的正是背后强大的迷因文化和社区意志，它如同美国霸权支撑美元一样，为狗狗币提供了“永不中断”的生命力frontiersin.org。

“复活权”的数字政治意涵

这种“失败-重生”的循环结构蕴含着深刻的政治意涵：在传统政治和商业领域，一个政党选举失利或一家公司破产往往意味着清零出局，资源散尽、组织瓦解。然而在 meme 币的世界，社群拥有了一种前所未有的“复活权”。当项目崩盘，社区并不必然随之消亡，而是可以凭借剩余的人心和热情卷土重来——哪怕换一个 token 名称，哪怕重启一条链，运动依然延续。正如 Cheems 项目的核心开发者所言，在几乎无人问津、技术受阻的困境下，大多数人可能早已卷款走人，但 “CHEEMS 社区没有放弃，背景、技术、风投都不重要，重要的是永不言弃的精神”cointelegraph.com。这种精神使得Cheems项目起死回生，社区成员齐声宣告“我们都是 CHEEMS”，共同书写历史cointelegraph.com。与传统依赖风投和公司输血的项目不同，Cheems 完全依靠社区的信念与韧性存续发展，体现了去中心化运动的真谛cointelegraph.com。这意味着政治参与的门槛被大大降低：哪怕没有金主和官方背书，草根也能凭借群体意志赋予某个代币新的生命。对于身处社会边缘的群体来说，meme 币俨然成为自组织的安全垫和重新集结的工具。难怪有学者指出，近期涌入meme币浪潮的主力，正是那些对现实失望但渴望改变命运的年轻人theguardian.com——“迷茫的年轻人，想要一夜暴富”theguardian.com。meme币的炒作表面上看是投机赌博，但背后蕴含的是草根对既有金融秩序的不满与反抗：没有监管和护栏又如何？一次失败算不得什么，社区自有后路和新方案。这种由底层群众不断试错、纠错并重启的过程，本身就是一种数字时代的新型反抗运动和群众动员机制。

举例而言，Terra Luna 的沉浮充分展现了这种“复活机制”的政治力量。作为一度由风投资本热捧的项目，Luna 币在2022年的崩溃本可被视作“归零”的失败典范——稳定币UST瞬间失锚，Luna币价归零，数十亿美元灰飞烟灭。然而“崩盘”并没有画下休止符。Luna的残余社区拒绝承认失败命运，通过链上治理投票毅然启动新链，“复活”了 Luna 代币，再次回到市场交易reuters.com。正如 Terra 官方在崩盘后发布的推文所宣称：“我们力量永在社区，今日的决定正彰显了我们的韧性”reuters.com。事实上，原链更名为 Luna Classic 后，大批所谓“LUNC 军团”的散户依然死守阵地，誓言不离不弃；他们自发烧毁巨量代币以缩减供应、推动技术升级，试图让这个一度归零的项目重新燃起生命之火binance.com。失败者并未散场，而是化作一股草根洪流，奋力托举起项目的残迹。经过迷因化的叙事重塑，这场从废墟中重建价值的壮举，成为加密世界中草根政治的经典一幕。类似的案例不胜枚举：曾经被视为笑话的 DOGE（狗狗币）正因多年社群的凝聚而跻身主流币种，总市值一度高达数百亿美元，充分证明了“民有民享”的迷因货币同样可以笑傲市场frontiersin.org。再看最新的美国政治舞台，连总统特朗普也推出了自己的 meme 币 $TRUMP，号召粉丝拿真金白银来表达支持。该币首日即从7美元暴涨至75美元，两天后虽回落到40美元左右，但几乎同时，第一夫人 Melania 又发布了自己的 $Melania 币，甚至连就职典礼的牧师都跟风发行了纪念币theguardian.com！显然，对于狂热的群众来说，一个币的沉浮并非终点，而更像是运动的换挡——资本市场成为政治参与的新前线，你方唱罢我登场，meme 币的群众动员热度丝毫不减。值得注意的是，2024年出现的 Pump.fun 等平台更是进一步降低了这一循环的技术门槛，任何人都可以一键生成自己的 meme 币theguardian.com。这意味着哪怕某个项目归零，剩余的社区完全可以借助此类工具迅速复制一个新币接力，延续集体行动的火种。可以说，在 meme 币的世界里，草根社群获得了前所未有的再生能力和主动权，这正是一种数字时代的群众政治奇观：失败可以被当作梗来玩，破产能够变成重生的序章。

价格即政治：群众投机的新抗争

meme 币现象的兴盛表明：在加密时代，价格本身已成为一种政治表达。这些看似荒诞的迷因代币，将金融市场变成了群众宣泄情绪和诉求的另一个舞台。有学者将此概括为“将公民参与直接转化为了投机资产”cdn-brighterworld.humanities.mcmaster.ca——也就是说，社会运动的热情被注入币价涨跌，政治支持被铸造成可以交易的代币。meme 币融合了金融、技术与政治，通过病毒般的迷因文化激发公众参与，形成对现实政治的某种映射cdn-brighterworld.humanities.mcmaster.caosl.com。当一群草根投入全部热忱去炒作一枚毫无基本面支撑的币时，这本身就是一种大众政治动员的体现：币价暴涨，意味着一群人以戏谑的方式在向既有权威叫板；币价崩盘，也并不意味着信念的消亡，反而可能孕育下一次更汹涌的造势。正如有分析指出，政治类 meme 币的出现前所未有地将群众文化与政治情绪融入市场行情，价格曲线俨然成为民意和趋势的风向标cdn-brighterworld.humanities.mcmaster.ca。在这种局面下，投机不再仅仅是逐利，还是一种宣示立场、凝聚共识的过程——一次次看似荒唐的炒作背后，是草根对传统体制的不服与嘲讽，是失败者拒绝认输的呐喊。归根结底，meme 币所累积的，正是一种不可被归零的政治资本。价格涨落之间，群众的愤怒、幽默与希望尽显其中；这股力量不因一次挫败而消散，反而在市场的循环中愈发壮大。也正因如此，我们才说“价格即政治”——在迷因币的世界里，价格不只是数字，更是人民政治能量的晴雨表，哪怕归零也终将卷土重来。cdn-brighterworld.humanities.mcmaster.caosl.com

全球新兴现象：伊斯兰金融的入场

当Crypto在西方世界掀起市场治政的狂潮时，另一股独特力量也悄然融入这一场域：伊斯兰金融携其独特的道德秩序，开始在链上寻找存在感。长期以来，伊斯兰金融遵循着一套区别于世俗资本主义的原则：禁止利息（Riba）、反对过度投机（Gharar/Maysir）、强调实际资产支撑和道德投资。当这些原则遇上去中心化的加密技术，会碰撞出怎样的火花？出人意料的是，这两者竟在“以市场行为表达价值”这个层面产生了惊人的共鸣。伊斯兰金融并不拒绝市场机制本身，只是为其附加了道德准则；Crypto则将市场机制推向了政治高位，用价格来表达社群意志。二者看似理念迥异，实则都承认市场行为可以也应当承载社会价值观。这使得越来越多金融与政治分析人士开始关注：当虔诚的宗教伦理遇上狂野的加密市场，会塑造出何种新范式？

事实上，穆斯林世界已经在探索“清真加密”的道路。一些区块链项目致力于确保协议符合伊斯兰教法（Sharia）的要求。例如Haqq区块链发行的伊斯兰币（ISLM），从规则层面内置了宗教慈善义务——每发行新币即自动将10%拨入慈善DAO，用于公益捐赠，以符合天课（Zakat）的教义nasdaq.comnasdaq.com。同时，该链拒绝利息和赌博类应用，2022年还获得了宗教权威的教令（Fatwa）认可其合规性nasdaq.com。再看理念层面，伊斯兰经济学强调货币必须有内在价值、收益应来自真实劳动而非纯利息剥削。这一点与比特币的“工作量证明”精神不谋而合——有人甚至断言法定货币无锚印钞并不清真，而比特币这类需耗费能源生产的资产反而更符合教法初衷cointelegraph.com。由此，越来越多穆斯林投资者开始以道德投资的名义进入Crypto领域，将资金投向符合清真原则的代币和协议。

这种现象带来了微妙的双重合法性：一方面，Crypto世界原本奉行“价格即真理”的世俗逻辑，而伊斯兰金融为其注入了一股道德合法性，使部分加密资产同时获得了宗教与市场的双重背书；另一方面，即便在遵循宗教伦理的项目中，最终决定成败的依然是市场对其价值的认可。道德共识与市场共识在链上交汇，共同塑造出一种混合的新秩序。这一全球新兴现象引发广泛议论：有人将其视为金融民主化的极致表现——不同文化价值都能在市场平台上表达并竞争；也有人警惕这可能掩盖新的风险，因为把宗教情感融入高风险资产，既可能凝聚强大的忠诚度，也可能在泡沫破裂时引发信仰与财富的双重危机。但无论如何，伊斯兰金融的入场使Crypto的政治版图更加丰盈多元。从华尔街交易员到中东教士，不同背景的人们正通过Crypto这个奇特的舞台，对人类价值的表达方式进行前所未有的实验。

升华结语：价格即政治的新直觉

回顾比特币问世以来的这段历程，我们可以清晰地看到一条演进的主线：先有货币革命，后有政治发明。比特币赋予了人类一种真正自主的数字货币，而Crypto在此基础上完成的，则是一项前所未有的政治革新——它让市场价格行为承担起了类似政治选票的功能，开创了一种“价格即政治”的新直觉。在这个直觉下，市场不再只是冷冰冰的交易场所；每一次资本流动、每一轮行情涨落，都被赋予了社会意义和政治涵义。买入即表态，卖出即抗议，流动性的涌入或枯竭胜过千言万语的陈情。Crypto世界中，K线图俨然成为民意曲线，行情图就是政治晴雨表。决策不再由少数权力精英关起门来制定，而是在全球无眠的交易中由无数普通人共同谱写。这样的政治形式也许狂野，也许充满泡沫和噪音，但它不可否认地调动起了广泛的社会参与，让原本疏离政治进程的个体通过持币、交易重新找回了影响力的幻觉或实感。

“价格即政治”并非一句简单的口号，而是Crypto给予世界的全新想象力。它质疑了传统政治的正统性：如果一串代码和一群匿名投资者就能高效决策资源分配，我们为何还需要繁冗的官僚体系？它也拷问着自身的内在隐忧：当财富与权力深度绑定，Crypto政治如何避免堕入金钱统治的老路？或许，正是在这样的矛盾和张力中，人类政治的未来才会不断演化。Crypto所开启的，不仅是技术乌托邦或金融狂欢，更可能是一次对民主形式的深刻拓展和挑战。这里有最狂热的逐利者，也有最理想主义的社群塑梦者；有一夜暴富的神话，也有瞬间破灭的惨痛。而这一切汇聚成的洪流，正冲撞着工业时代以来既定的权力谱系。

当我们再次追问：Crypto究竟是什么？ 或许可以这样回答——Crypto是比特币之后，人类完成的一次政治范式的试验性跃迁。在这里，价格行为化身为选票，资本市场演化为广场，代码与共识共同撰写“社会契约”。这是一场仍在进行的文明实验：它可能无声地融入既有秩序，也可能剧烈地重塑未来规则。但无论结局如何，如今我们已经见证：在比特币发明真正的货币之后，Crypto正在发明真正属于21世纪的政治。它以数字时代的语言宣告：在链上，价格即政治，市场即民意，代码即法律。这，或许就是Crypto带给我们的最直观而震撼的本质启示。

参考资料：

• 中本聪. 比特币白皮书: 一种点对点的电子现金系统. (2008)bitcoin.org

• Arkham Intelligence. Ethereum vs Ethereum Classic: Understanding the Differences. (2023)arkhamintelligence.com

• Binance Square (@渔神的加密日记). 狗狗币价格为何上涨？背后的原因你知道吗？binance.com

• Cointelegraph中文. 特朗普的迷因币晚宴预期内容揭秘. (2025)cn.cointelegraph.com

• 慢雾科技 Web3Caff (@Lisa). 风险提醒：从 LIBRA 看“政治化”的加密货币骗局. (2025)web3caff.com

• Nasdaq (@Anthony Clarke). How Cryptocurrency Aligns with the Principles of Islamic Finance. (2023)nasdaq.comnasdaq.com

• Cointelegraph Magazine (@Andrew Fenton). DeFi can be halal but not DOGE? Decentralizing Islamic finance. (2023)cointelegraph.com

@ 26769dac:498e333b

Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up

We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

This piece is the first in a series that will focus on things I think are a priority if your focus is similar to mine: building a strong family and safeguarding their future.

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Choosing the ideal place to raise a family is one of the most significant decisions you will ever make. For simplicity sake I will break down my thought process into key factors: strong property rights, the ability to grow your own food, access to fresh water, the freedom to own and train with guns, and a dependable community.

A Jurisdiction with Strong Property Rights

Strong property rights are essential and allow you to build on a solid foundation that is less likely to break underneath you. Regions with a history of limited government and clear legal protections for landowners are ideal. Personally I think the US is the single best option globally, but within the US there is a wide difference between which state you choose. Choose carefully and thoughtfully, think long term. Obviously if you are not American this is not a realistic option for you, there are other solid options available especially if your family has mobility. I understand many do not have this capability to easily move, consider that your first priority, making movement and jurisdiction choice possible in the first place.

Abundant Access to Fresh Water

Water is life. I cannot overstate the importance of living somewhere with reliable, clean, and abundant freshwater. Some regions face water scarcity or heavy regulations on usage, so prioritizing a place where water is plentiful and your rights to it are protected is critical. Ideally you should have well access so you are not tied to municipal water supplies. In times of crisis or chaos well water cannot be easily shutoff or disrupted. If you live in an area that is drought prone, you are one drought away from societal chaos. Not enough people appreciate this simple fact.

Grow Your Own Food

A location with fertile soil, a favorable climate, and enough space for a small homestead or at the very least a garden is key. In stable times, a small homestead provides good food and important education for your family. In times of chaos your family being able to grow and raise healthy food provides a level of self sufficiency that many others will lack. Look for areas with minimal restrictions, good weather, and a culture that supports local farming.

Guns

The ability to defend your family is fundamental. A location where you can legally and easily own guns is a must. Look for places with a strong gun culture and a political history of protecting those rights. Owning one or two guns is not enough and without proper training they will be a liability rather than a benefit. Get comfortable and proficient. Never stop improving your skills. If the time comes that you must use a gun to defend your family, the skills must be instinct. Practice. Practice. Practice.

A Strong Community You Can Depend On

No one thrives alone. A ride or die community that rallies together in tough times is invaluable. Seek out a place where people know their neighbors, share similar values, and are quick to lend a hand. Lead by example and become a good neighbor, people will naturally respond in kind. Small towns are ideal, if possible, but living outside of a major city can be a solid balance in terms of work opportunities and family security.

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Let me know if you found this helpful. My plan is to break down how I think about these five key subjects in future posts.

@ 502ab02a:a2860397

บางครั้งพลังยิ่งใหญ่ที่สุดก็ไม่ใช่สิ่งที่เห็นได้ด้วยตาเปล่า เหมือนแสงแดดที่คนส่วนใหญ่มักจะกลัวเพราะกลัวผิวเสีย กลัวฝ้า กลัวร้อน แต่แท้จริงแล้วในแสงแดดมีบางสิ่งที่น่าเคารพอยู่ลึกๆ มันคือแสงที่มองไม่เห็น มันไม่แสบตา ไม่แสบผิว แต่มันลึก ถึงเซลล์ มันคือ “แสงอินฟราเรด” ที่ซ่อนตัวอย่างสุภาพในแดดยามเช้า

เฮียมักชอบพูดว่า แดดที่ดีไม่จำเป็นต้องแสบหลัง อาบแสงที่ลอดผ่านใบไม้ยามเช้าแบบไม่ต้องฝืนตาก็พอ แสงอินฟราเรดนี่แหละคือพระเอกตัวจริงในความเงียบ มันไม่ดัง ไม่โชว์ ไม่โฆษณา แต่มันลงลึกไปถึงระดับที่ร่างกายเรากำลังหิวโดยไม่รู้ตัวในระดับเซลล์

ในเซลล์ของเรา มีหน่วยผลิตพลังงานที่เรียกว่าไมโทคอนเดรีย เจ้านี่แหละคือโรงไฟฟ้าจิ๋วประจำบ้าน ที่ต้องตื่นมาทำงานทุกวันโดยไม่ได้หยุดเสาร์อาทิตย์ ยิ่งถ้าไมโทคอนเดรียทำงานไม่ดี ร่างกายก็จะเหมือนไฟตกทั้งระบบ—ง่วงง่าย เพลียไว ปวดนู่นปวดนี่เหมือนไฟในบ้านกระพริบตลอดเวลา

แล้วแสงอินฟราเรดเกี่ยวอะไรกับมัน? เฮียขอเล่าง่ายๆ ว่า ไมโทคอนเดรียมีตัวรับแสงตัวหนึ่งชื่อว่า cytochrome c oxidase เจ้านี่ตอบสนองต่อแสงอินฟราเรดช่วงคลื่นเฉพาะ คือประมาณ 600–900 นาโนเมตร พอโดนเข้าไป มันเหมือนได้จุดประกายให้โรงงานพลังงานในร่างกายกลับมาคึกคักอีกครั้ง ผลิตพลังงานได้มากขึ้น ระบบไหลเวียนเลือดก็ดีขึ้น เหมือนท่อน้ำที่เคยอุดตันก็กลับมาใสแจ๋ว ความอักเสบเล็กๆ ในร่างกายก็ลดลง คล้ายบ้านที่เคยอับชื้นแล้วได้เปิดหน้าต่างให้แสงแดดส่องเข้าไป

และที่น่ารักกว่านั้นคือ เราไม่ต้องไปถึงชายหาด ไม่ต้องจองรีสอร์ตริมทะเล แค่แดดเช้าอ่อนๆ ข้างบ้านหรือตามขอบระเบียง ก็ให้แสงอินฟราเรดได้แล้ว ถ้าใครอยู่ในเมืองใหญ่ที่มีแต่ตึกบังแดด แล้วจะเลือกใช้หลอดไฟ Red Light Therapy ก็ไม่ผิด แต่ต้องเลือกแบบรู้เท่าทันรู้ ไม่ใช่เห็นใครรีวิวก็ซื้อมาเปิดใส่หน้า หวังจะหน้าใสข้ามคืน ต้องเข้าใจทั้งความยาวคลื่น เวลาใช้งาน และจุดประสงค์ ไม่ใช่ใช้เพราะแค่กลัวแก่อยากหน้าตึง แต่ใช้เพราะอยากให้ร่างกายกลับไปทำงานอย่างเป็นธรรมชาติอีกครั้ง และอยู่ในประเทศหรือสถานที่ที่โดนแดดได้น้อยอยากได้เสริมเฉยๆ

แล้วเราจะรู้ได้ยังไงว่าไมโทคอนเดรียเรากลับมาทำงานดีขึ้น? เฮียว่าไม่ต้องรอผลเลือดจากแล็บไหนก็รู้ได้ อย่าไปยึดติดกับตัวเลขมากครับ เอาตัวเองเป็นหลัก ตั้งคำถามกับตัวเองว่ารู้สึกยังไงบ้าง ถ้าเริ่มนอนหลับลึกขึ้น ตื่นมาแล้วหัวไม่มึน ไม่หงุดหงิดตั้งแต่ยังไม่ลืมตา ถ้าปวดหลังปวดข้อที่เคยมีเริ่มหายไปแบบไม่ได้กินยา หรือแม้แต่ผิวที่ดูสดใสขึ้นแบบไม่ต้องง้อสกินแคร์ นั่นแหละคือเสียงขอบคุณเบาๆ จากไมโทคอนเดรียที่ได้แสงแดดแล้วกลับมามีชีวิตอีกครั้ง ถ้ามันดีก็คือดี

บางที เราไม่ต้องกินวิตามินเม็ดไหนเพิ่ม แค่เดินออกไปรับแดดเบาๆ ในเวลาเช้าๆ แล้วให้ร่างกายได้พูดคุยกับธรรมชาติบ้าง เพราะในความอบอุ่นเงียบๆ ของแสงอินฟราเรดนั้น มีเสียงเบาๆ ที่กำลังปลุกพลังในตัวเราให้กลับมาอีกครั้ง

แดดไม่ใช่ศัตรู ถ้าเรารู้จักมันในมุมที่ถูกต้อง เฮียแค่อยากชวนให้ลองเปลี่ยนจากคำว่า “กลัวแดด” เป็น “ฟังแดด” เพราะบางครั้งธรรมชาติไม่ได้พูดด้วยคำ แต่สื่อสารด้วยแสงที่แทรกผ่านหัวใจเราโดยไม่ต้องผ่านล่าม

บางคนอาจคิดในใจ “แหมเฮีย ก็ดีหรอก ถ้าได้ตื่นเช้า” 555555

เฮียเข้าใจดีเลยว่าไม่ใช่ทุกคนจะตื่นมาทันแดดยามเช้าได้เสมอไป ชีวิตคนเรามันไม่ได้เริ่มต้นพร้อมไก่ขันทุกวัน บางคนเพิ่งเข้านอนตอนตีสาม ตื่นอีกทีแดดก็แตะบ่ายเข้าไปแล้ว ไม่ต้องกังวลไปจ้ะ เพราะความมหัศจรรย์ของแสงอินฟราเรดยังมีให้เราได้ใช้แม้ในแดดยามเย็น

แดดช่วงเย็น โดยเฉพาะหลังสี่โมงเย็นไปจนเกือบหกโมง (หรือเร็วช้าตามฤดู) ก็ยังอุดมไปด้วยแสงอินฟราเรดในช่วงคลื่นที่ไมโทคอนเดรียชอบ แถมยังไม่มีรังสี UV ที่แรงจัดมารบกวนเหมือนตอนเที่ยง เรียกว่าเป็นแดดแบบละมุนๆ สำหรับคนที่อยาก “บำบัดใจ” แบบไม่ต้องร้อนจนหัวเปียก

เฮียเคยลองตากแดดเย็นเดินไปในสวนสาธารณะ แล้วรู้สึกว่ามันเหมือนได้รีเซ็ตจิตใจหลังวันเหนื่อยๆ ไปในตัว ยิ่งพอรู้ว่าในช่วงเวลานี้แสงที่ได้กำลังช่วยปลุกพลังงานในร่างกายแบบเงียบๆ ด้วยแล้ว มันทำให้เฮียยิ่งเคารพธรรมชาติมากขึ้นไปอีก เคยเห็นคนที่วันๆมีแต่ความเครียด ความโกรธ ความอาฆาตต่อโลกไหมหละ บางคนแค่โดนแดด แต่ไม่ได้ตากแดด การตากแดดคือปล่อยใจไปกับธรรมชาติ พูดคุยกับร่างกาย บอกเขาว่าเราจะทำตัวให้เป็นประโยชน์กับโลกใบนี้ ให้สมกับที่ใช้พลังงานของโลก

จะเช้าหรือเย็น สำคัญไม่เท่ากับความตั้งใจ เฮียว่าไม่ว่าชีวิตจะตื่นตอนไหน ถ้าเราให้เวลาแค่ 10–15 นาทีในแต่ละวัน ออกไปยืนให้แดดแตะหน้า แตะแขน หรือแค่ให้แสงลอดผ่านตาเบาๆ โดยไม่ต้องจ้องจ้าๆ ก็พอ แค่นี้ก็เป็นการให้ไมโทคอนเดรียได้หายใจ ได้ออกกำลังกายแบบของมัน และได้ส่งพลังกลับมาหาเราทั้งร่างกายและจิตใจ

สุดท้ายแล้ว แดดไม่ได้แบ่งชนชั้น ไม่เลือกว่าจะรักเฉพาะคนตื่นเช้า หรือโกรธคนตื่นสาย ขอแค่เรารู้จักเวลาและวิธีอยู่กับมันอย่างถูกจังหวะ แดดก็พร้อมจะให้เสมอ

#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr #SundaySpecialเราจะไปเป็นหมูแดดเดียว

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Sometime in the not-too-distant future...

alert – low voltage – P Node 5

Pippin looked up from the McMaster-Carr catalogue to the blinking line of text. A double-click opened the Grafana page for Perimeter Node 5. The solar panel voltage graph showed a stable 18V, then a jagged drop to 10V. Weird, that panel is less than a year old, and it’s a clear, sunny, wind-less day. He reached to the wall and poked the button labelled “Patrol 3”, and listened for the noise of the Hawk 2A fixed-wing patrol drone leaving it’s nest.

whirrrrr-zip!

Off it went. It should be over the node in about 6 minutes. He opened the live feed on the second monitor and went back to the catalogue. Here we are, 49045K12. That should get the water system in the greenhouse working again. Back on the computer he opened his AirZap page, selected McMaster-Carr from the list of vendors, and entered the part number on the item list. 148sats with next week’s regular delivery, or 400sats special delivery tomorrow. He clicked the “Regular Delivery” button, then “Confirm Zap”. The HF radio on the network rack hummed for a moment then shrieked a burst of noise. The Nostr event with the order details and Lightning payment was on it’s way to McMaster-Carr’s relay. Luckily the part is small and light enough for drone delivery. Pippin’s private grid on Glass Lake is well outside Fed-PS’s ground delivery area, and even if it wasn’t, there are no government roads here. Being a non-citizen and outside a metro-state was a pain and could be expensive. It was better than paying a 95% tax rate though...

alert – low voltage – P Node 5

The node! His eyes snapped to the second monitor just in time for the flyover, and he could see right away that the solar panel was at an odd angle. Yay, a field repair out in the cold. He tossed the tool kit and electrical repair kit on the hovertrike rack while his thermos filled with coffee. Giving the freeze-frame from the Hawk 2A a second look, he grumbled and grabbed the mechanical kit, adding it to the pile. After a third look and an eye roll he dragged a spare solar panel over to the trailer, then slapped the “Hitch” button.

Clear! Clear! Clear! zzz-thunk!

The electromagnets sucked the trailer and trike together, the pin dropping in as soon as it cleared. Pippin silently prayed thanks to God for small conveniences that eased life’s suffering and slurped a sip off the top of the thermos. And coffee. Thank you Father for the coffee trees in the greenhouse.

...

The cutline running the border of Pippin’s property is technically straight and certainly looks it from above, but driving it, even on a hovertrike, is a bouncy, curvy, slow-going affair. Watching immediately ahead instead of appropriately further meant a surprise when the node entered his field of vision. The trailer slid sideways as the trike stopped immediately on its legs. After a sigh and a sip, Pippin powered off the pads and dismounted. Yup, the solar panel is definitely twisted sideways. And bent. And...scratched? Short gouges scraped through the 2 columns of cells closest to the bent edge. There were no fallen trees nearby, so that wasn’t the cause...

snap!

He reached for his laser and got nothing but air. It was in the shop on the charger. Of course it would be; cue a subconscious eye roll. When his brain finally caught up with his eyes he registered the source: 2 meters tall, all black, and capable of mowing him down without a second thought. Thankfully the bull moose was, as most are, completely disinterested in everything but the willow tree he was in the middle of dismembering for lunch. Nonchalance was a benefit of having no natural predators. The ceramic dust on the points of one antler solved the solar panel mystery though; the panel was at the perfect hight for him to have scrapped the side of it as he walked by. He probably didn’t even notice as they’re constantly dragging them through the brush and trees.

...

warning – P Node 5 offline

He hadn’t bothered to mute the alerts while he replaced the broken panel and twisted mounting hardware. Last time he did he forgot to unmute them and went 2 days without noticing. Better to be mildly annoyed for a short time then to go without system or security alerts. He closed the junction box and moved his gaze to the status screen.

powering on...

self check...

all tests pass...

connecting to network...

no signal, switching to failover network...

He mashed the reboot button before it could complete. If he let it connect to the backup ZuckLink satellite network he’d be paying non-citizen usage fees by the megabyte. It was probably just a hiccup anyways, the point-to-point terrestrial link would probably connect fine on the next try.

no signal, switching to failover network...

This time he hit the power switch. The moose hadn’t damaged the antenna and he’d double-checked the alignment while he had the ladder out. Why wasn’t it connecting? He picked up the network scanner, walked to the other side of the node, and pointed it in the general direction of Node 6. No signal. Surely Node 6 didn’t go down on his way here. Now it was either drive all the way there to check it, or let Node 5 connect via satellite and check remotely.

no signal, switching to failover network...

He could practically feel the sats streaming out of his wallet. Ugh, here we go...

failover network unavailble, no signal...

What? There’s no way the satellite link was down too, unless the whole network stack was borked. Huffing and grumbling back to the trike, he plugged the network scanner into it’s com system and selected the satellite interface.

no signal

“Hey Bullwinkle, you wouldn’t happen to be running around with an all-spectrum jammer would you?” Hearing nothing, he looked up and around for the moose. He had been working his way down the edge of the line where the young willows were while Pippin had been working on repairs. Now he was gone. If the moose had joined the rimwalker raiders and started carrying signal jammers, he should be out of range now. He chuckled at the thought of some off-grid wildman trying to train a moose to carry equipment.

no signal, switching to failover network...

failover network unavailable, no signal...

Maybe it was the network stack. But that wouldn’t explain being unable to connect through the trike. Maybe he should just unhitch the trailer and go check Node 6. While highly unlikely, there could be a ZuckLink outage in his cell and an issue with the link to the next node at the same time. The only way to know would be to check in-person.

As he looked up from the status screen his peripheral caught motion on the treeline. “Hey Bullwinkle, is that you?” Antler points protruded from behind a tree, unmoving. A bit too still, actually.

“Bullwinkle?” Those weren’t antler points. That was an antenna array.

no signal

Notes & Appendix

The various technical and other odd bits I used in this story are all either real things or will be very soon. If this was a movie or TV show the visual elements would make some of the nerdier references either to get (i.e. most people would know a drone if they saw one, but saying “fixed-wing patrol drone” doesn’t necessarily draw a mental image for everyone), but in an effort to not constantly interrupt the flow for explanations I’ve moved those here. If I’ve missed any or you want more more detailed explanations, you can find us at scalebright.ca!

McMaster-Carr: A 120+ year old distribution company that specializes in hardware, parts, and tools. Known for their iconic enormous yellow catalogues and legendary (in I.T. circles) website. They’ll probably still be around in another 120+ years and probably still have their yellow catalogues.

Fixed-wing patrol drones: The fixed-wing variety of drones look like miniature airplanes and generally fly much faster than their more common quad-copter style siblings, making them excellent for patrols of static routes.

Sats: Short for “satoshis”, sats are the smallest denomination of Bitcoin.

Zaps: Bitcoin Lighting payments made over Nostr.

Lighting: A Bitcoin protocol for small payments (usually denominated in sats).

Nostr: A decentralized communications and social media protocol.

HF radio: Short for “high frequency”, also knows as ham radio. Bitcoin Lightning payments have been made over HF, as have Nostr posts.

Metro-state: City-states have existed since cities were first built. Metro-states would be a modern version that include their entire greater metro areas in their statehood.

Laser: Advances in focusing lens manufacturing have made handheld “laser guns” possible, though currently legally dubious. I get ads for them on a few of my social networks.

Ceramic solar panels: They’re being marketed as the next big thing in solar tech, but time will tell if they’re as good as the sales pitches say.

Bullwinkle: An anthropomorphic moose character from the 1950s/60s TV show “Rocky and Bullwinkle”.

All-spectrum jammer: Police have been finding criminals using both commercially manufactured and home-made signal jammers during robberies, kidnappings, and other crimes to stop people from calling emergency services or disrupt wireless security cameras. Most of them look like a WIFI router with a whole bunch of antennas.

rimwalker raiders: A made-up category of bandits known for living on the edge of civilization but still making use of technology.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

There is something quietly rebellious about stacking sats. In a world obsessed with instant gratification, choosing to patiently accumulate Bitcoin, one sat at a time, feels like a middle finger to the hype machine. But to do it right, you have got to stay humble. Stack too hard with your head in the clouds, and you will trip over your own ego before the next halving even hits.

Small Wins

Stacking sats is not glamorous. Discipline. Stacking every day, week, or month, no matter the price, and letting time do the heavy lifting. Humility lives in that consistency. You are not trying to outsmart the market or prove you are the next "crypto" prophet. Just a regular person, betting on a system you believe in, one humble stack at a time. Folks get rekt chasing the highs. They ape into some shitcoin pump, shout about it online, then go silent when they inevitably get rekt. The ones who last? They stack. Just keep showing up. Consistency. Humility in action. Know the game is long, and you are not bigger than it.

Ego is Volatile

Bitcoin’s swings can mess with your head. One day you are up 20%, feeling like a genius and the next down 30%, questioning everything. Ego will have you panic selling at the bottom or over leveraging the top. Staying humble means patience, a true bitcoin zen. Do not try to "beat” Bitcoin. Ride it. Stack what you can afford, live your life, and let compounding work its magic.

Simplicity

There is a beauty in how stacking sats forces you to rethink value. A sat is worth less than a penny today, but every time you grab a few thousand, you plant a seed. It is not about flaunting wealth but rather building it, quietly, without fanfare. That mindset spills over. Cut out the noise: the overpriced coffee, fancy watches, the status games that drain your wallet. Humility is good for your soul and your stack. I have a buddy who has been stacking since 2015. Never talks about it unless you ask. Lives in a decent place, drives an old truck, and just keeps stacking. He is not chasing clout, he is chasing freedom. That is the vibe: less ego, more sats, all grounded in life.

The Big Picture

Stack those sats. Do it quietly, do it consistently, and do not let the green days puff you up or the red days break you down. Humility is the secret sauce, it keeps you grounded while the world spins wild. In a decade, when you look back and smile, it will not be because you shouted the loudest. It will be because you stayed the course, one sat at a time. \ \ Stay Humble and Stack Sats. 🫡

@ dbc27e2e:b1dd0b0b

Dose: 30g coffee (Fine-medium grind size) 500mL soft or bottled water (97°C / 206.6°F)

Instructions:

1. Rinse out your filter paper with hot water to remove the papery taste. This will also preheat the brewer.
2. Add your grounds carefully to the center of the V60 and then create a well in the middle of the grounds.
3. For the bloom, start to gently pour 60mL of water, making sure that all the coffee is wet in this initial phase.
4. As soon as you’ve added your water, grab your V60 and begin to swirl in a circular motion. This will ensure the water and coffee are evenly mixed. Let this rest and bloom for up to 45 seconds.
5. Pour the rest of the water in in 2 phases. You want to try and get 60% of your total water in, within 30 seconds.
6. Pour until you reach 300mL total with a time at 1:15. Here you want to pour with a little agitation, but not so much that you have an uneven extraction.
7. Once you hit 60% of your total brew weight, start to pour a little slower and more gently, keeping your V60 cone topped up. Aim to have 100% of your brew weight in within the next 30 seconds.
8. Once you get to 500mL, with a spoon give the V60 a small stir in one direction, and then again in the other direction. This will release any grounds stuck to the side of the paper.
9. Allow the V60 to drain some more, and then give it one final swirl. This will help keep the bed flat towards the end of the brew, giving you the most even possible extraction.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Aliquam eu turpis sed enim ultricies scelerisque\ Duis posuere congue faucibus

Praesent pretium orci ante, et faucibus lectus euismod a

@ c066aac5:6a41a034

I’m drawn to extremities in art. The louder, the bolder, the more outrageous, the better. Bold art takes me out of the mundane into a whole new world where anything and everything is possible. Having grown up in the safety of the suburban midwest, I was a bit of a rebellious soul in search of the satiation that only came from the consumption of the outrageous. My inclination to find bold art draws me to NOSTR, because I believe NOSTR can be the place where the next generation of artistic pioneers go to express themselves. I also believe that as much as we are able, were should invite them to come create here.

My Background: A Small Side Story

My father was a professional gamer in the 80s, back when there was no money or glory in the avocation. He did get a bit of spotlight though after the fact: in the mid 2000’s there were a few parties making documentaries about that era of gaming as well as current arcade events (namely 2007’sChasing GhostsandThe King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters). As a result of these documentaries, there was a revival in the arcade gaming scene. My family attended events related to the documentaries or arcade gaming and I became exposed to a lot of things I wouldn’t have been able to find. The producer ofThe King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters had previously made a documentary calledNew York Dollwhich was centered around the life of bassist Arthur Kane. My 12 year old mind was blown: The New York Dolls were a glam-punk sensation dressed in drag. The music was from another planet. Johnny Thunders’ guitar playing was like Chuck Berry with more distortion and less filter. Later on I got to meet the Galaga record holder at the time, Phil Day, in Ottumwa Iowa. Phil is an Australian man of high intellect and good taste. He exposed me to great creators such as Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds, Shakespeare, Lou Reed, artists who created things that I had previously found inconceivable.

I believe this time period informed my current tastes and interests, but regrettably I think it also put coals on the fire of rebellion within. I stopped taking my parents and siblings seriously, the Christian faith of my family (which I now hold dearly to) seemed like a mundane sham, and I felt I couldn’t fit in with most people because of my avant-garde tastes. So I write this with the caveat that there should be a way to encourage these tastes in children without letting them walk down the wrong path. There is nothing inherently wrong with bold art, but I’d advise parents to carefully find ways to cultivate their children’s tastes without completely shutting them down and pushing them away as a result. My parents were very loving and patient during this time; I thank God for that.

With that out of the way, lets dive in to some bold artists:

Nicolas Cage: Actor

There is an excellent video by Wisecrack on Nicolas Cage that explains him better than I will, which I will linkhere. Nicolas Cage rejects the idea that good acting is tied to mere realism; all of his larger than life acting decisions are deliberate choices. When that clicked for me, I immediately realized the man is a genius. He borrows from Kabuki and German Expressionism, art forms that rely on exaggeration to get the message across. He has even created his own acting style, which he calls Nouveau Shamanic. He augments his imagination to go from acting to being. Rather than using the old hat of method acting, he transports himself to a new world mentally. The projects he chooses to partake in are based on his own interests or what he considers would be a challenge (making a bad script good for example). Thus it doesn’t matter how the end result comes out; he has already achieved his goal as an artist. Because of this and because certain directors don’t know how to use his talents, he has a noticeable amount of duds in his filmography. Dig around the duds, you’ll find some pure gold. I’d personally recommend the filmsPig, Joe, Renfield, and his Christmas film The Family Man.

Nick Cave: Songwriter

What a wild career this man has had! From the apocalyptic mayhem of his band The Birthday Party to the pensive atmosphere of his albumGhosteen, it seems like Nick Cave has tried everything. I think his secret sauce is that he’s always working. He maintains an excellent newsletter calledThe Red Hand Files, he has written screenplays such asLawless, he has written books, he has made great film scores such asThe Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, the man is religiously prolific. I believe that one of the reasons he is prolific is that he’s not afraid to experiment. If he has an idea, he follows it through to completion. From the albumMurder Ballads(which is comprised of what the title suggests) to his rejected sequel toGladiator(Gladiator: Christ Killer), he doesn’t seem to be afraid to take anything on. This has led to some over the top works as well as some deeply personal works. Albums likeSkeleton TreeandGhosteenwere journeys through the grief of his son’s death. The Boatman’s Callis arguably a better break-up album than anything Taylor Swift has put out. He’s not afraid to be outrageous, he’s not afraid to offend, but most importantly he’s not afraid to be himself. Works I’d recommend include The Birthday Party’sLive 1981-82, Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds’The Boatman’s Call, and the filmLawless.

Jim Jarmusch: Director

I consider Jim’s films to be bold almost in an ironic sense: his works are bold in that they are, for the most part, anti-sensational. He has a rule that if his screenplays are criticized for a lack of action, he makes them even less eventful. Even with sensational settings his films feel very close to reality, and they demonstrate the beauty of everyday life. That's what is bold about his art to me: making the sensational grounded in reality while making everyday reality all the more special. Ghost Dog: The Way of the Samurai is about a modern-day African-American hitman who strictly follows the rules of the ancient Samurai, yet one can resonate with the humanity of a seemingly absurd character. Only Lovers Left Aliveis a vampire love story, but in the middle of a vampire romance one can see their their own relationships in a new deeply human light. Jim’s work reminds me that art reflects life, and that there is sacred beauty in seemingly mundane everyday life. I personally recommend his filmsPaterson,Down by Law, andCoffee and Cigarettes.

NOSTR: We Need Bold Art

NOSTR is in my opinion a path to a better future. In a world creeping slowly towards everything apps, I hope that the protocol where the individual owns their data wins over everything else. I love freedom and sovereignty. If NOSTR is going to win the race of everything apps, we need more than Bitcoin content. We need more than shirtless bros paying for bananas in foreign countries and exercising with girls who have seductive accents. Common people cannot see themselves in such a world. NOSTR needs to catch the attention of everyday people. I don’t believe that this can be accomplished merely by introducing more broadly relevant content; people are searching for content that speaks to them. I believe that NOSTR can and should attract artists of all kinds because NOSTR is one of the few places on the internet where artists can express themselves fearlessly. Getting zaps from NOSTR’s value-for-value ecosystem has far less friction than crowdfunding a creative project or pitching investors that will irreversibly modify an artist’s vision. Having a place where one can post their works without fear of censorship should be extremely enticing. Having a place where one can connect with fellow humans directly as opposed to a sea of bots should seem like the obvious solution. If NOSTR can become a safe haven for artists to express themselves and spread their work, I believe that everyday people will follow. The banker whose stressful job weighs on them will suddenly find joy with an original meme made by a great visual comedian. The programmer for a healthcare company who is drowning in hopeless mundanity could suddenly find a new lust for life by hearing the song of a musician who isn’t afraid to crowdfund their their next project by putting their lighting address on the streets of the internet. The excel guru who loves independent film may find that NOSTR is the best way to support non corporate movies. My closing statement: continue to encourage the artists in your life as I’m sure you have been, but while you’re at it give them the purple pill. You may very well be a part of building a better future.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Here’s a revised timeline of macro-level events from The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver, reimagined in a world where Bitcoin is adopted as a widely accepted form of money, altering the original narrative’s assumptions about currency collapse and economic control. In Shriver’s original story, the failure of Bitcoin is assumed amid the dominance of the bancor and the dollar’s collapse. Here, Bitcoin’s success reshapes the economic and societal trajectory, decentralizing power and challenging state-driven outcomes.

Part One: 2029–2032

• 2029 (Early Year)\ The United States faces economic strain as the dollar weakens against global shifts. However, Bitcoin, having gained traction emerges as a viable alternative. Unlike the original timeline, the bancor—a supranational currency backed by a coalition of nations—struggles to gain footing as Bitcoin’s decentralized adoption grows among individuals and businesses worldwide, undermining both the dollar and the bancor.

• 2029 (Mid-Year: The Great Renunciation)\ Treasury bonds lose value, and the government bans Bitcoin, labeling it a threat to sovereignty (mirroring the original bancor ban). However, a Bitcoin ban proves unenforceable—its decentralized nature thwarts confiscation efforts, unlike gold in the original story. Hyperinflation hits the dollar as the U.S. prints money, but Bitcoin’s fixed supply shields adopters from currency devaluation, creating a dual-economy split: dollar users suffer, while Bitcoin users thrive.

• 2029 (Late Year)\ Dollar-based inflation soars, emptying stores of goods priced in fiat currency. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transactions flourish in underground and online markets, stabilizing trade for those plugged into the bitcoin ecosystem. Traditional supply chains falter, but peer-to-peer Bitcoin networks enable local and international exchange, reducing scarcity for early adopters. The government’s gold confiscation fails to bolster the dollar, as Bitcoin’s rise renders gold less relevant.

• 2030–2031\ Crime spikes in dollar-dependent urban areas, but Bitcoin-friendly regions see less chaos, as digital wallets and smart contracts facilitate secure trade. The U.S. government doubles down on surveillance to crack down on bitcoin use. A cultural divide deepens: centralized authority weakens in Bitcoin-adopting communities, while dollar zones descend into lawlessness.

• 2032\ By this point, Bitcoin is de facto legal tender in parts of the U.S. and globally, especially in tech-savvy or libertarian-leaning regions. The federal government’s grip slips as tax collection in dollars plummets—Bitcoin’s traceability is low, and citizens evade fiat-based levies. Rural and urban Bitcoin hubs emerge, while the dollar economy remains fractured.

Time Jump: 2032–2047

• Over 15 years, Bitcoin solidifies as a global reserve currency, eroding centralized control. The U.S. government adapts, grudgingly integrating bitcoin into policy, though regional autonomy grows as Bitcoin empowers local economies.

Part Two: 2047

• 2047 (Early Year)\ The U.S. is a hybrid state: Bitcoin is legal tender alongside a diminished dollar. Taxes are lower, collected in BTC, reducing federal overreach. Bitcoin’s adoption has decentralized power nationwide. The bancor has faded, unable to compete with Bitcoin’s grassroots momentum.

• 2047 (Mid-Year)\ Travel and trade flow freely in Bitcoin zones, with no restrictive checkpoints. The dollar economy lingers in poorer areas, marked by decay, but Bitcoin’s dominance lifts overall prosperity, as its deflationary nature incentivizes saving and investment over consumption. Global supply chains rebound, powered by bitcoin enabled efficiency.

• 2047 (Late Year)\ The U.S. is a patchwork of semi-autonomous zones, united by Bitcoin’s universal acceptance rather than federal control. Resource scarcity persists due to past disruptions, but economic stability is higher than in Shriver’s original dystopia—Bitcoin’s success prevents the authoritarian slide, fostering a freer, if imperfect, society.

Key Differences

• Currency Dynamics: Bitcoin’s triumph prevents the bancor’s dominance and mitigates hyperinflation’s worst effects, offering a lifeline outside state control.
• Government Power: Centralized authority weakens as Bitcoin evades bans and taxation, shifting power to individuals and communities.
• Societal Outcome: Instead of a surveillance state, 2047 sees a decentralized, bitcoin driven world—less oppressive, though still stratified between Bitcoin haves and have-nots.

This reimagining assumes Bitcoin overcomes Shriver’s implied skepticism to become a robust, adopted currency by 2029, fundamentally altering the novel’s bleak trajectory.

@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'The Cantillon Effect: When new money is printed, those closest to the source (banks, elites) benefit first, buying assets before prices rise. Others lose purchasing power as inflation hits later. If people find out how this works, they will riot.' -Bitcoin for Freedom

Just think about it. Your employer gives you a 5% raise. The Fed (central banks in general) prints 7% more dollars/euros/Fiat. You just got a 2% pay cut. This isn't a conspiracy theory. This is how fiat money steals from the working class every single day. This is why I support Bitcoin.

Anilsaidso: 'Saving in fiat currency is no longer an option. A 2% inflation rate means you lose 1/3 of your purchasing power over 20yrs. At 5% inflation, you lose 60%. And at 10% you've burnt 85%. Reduce your uncertainty. Save in Bitcoin.' https://i.ibb.co/N661BdVp/Gr-Rwdg-OXc-AAWPVE.jpg

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

“Education increases conviction.

Conviction increases allocation.

Allocation increases freedom.” —Gigi

https://i.ibb.co/Q3trHk8Y/Gr-Arv-Ioa-AAAF5b0.jpg

On the 12th of May:

➡️Google searches for "Digital Gold" are at all-time highs. Bitcoin Croesus: "This is the second wave of the Digital Revolution - the digitization of value to complement the Internet's digitization of information. It wasn't possible to own a slice of the Internet itself, but it is possible with Bitcoin, the internet of value." "...It feels like you're late to Bitcoin. But this is a bigger game playing out than most realize, and we are much earlier than casual observers know. If you're reading this, you're here on the frontier early. And you have a chance to stake a claim before 99% of the world shows up. This is a land grab. This is the digital gold rush. Make your descendants proud."

https://i.ibb.co/5XXbNQ8S/Gqw-X4-QRWs-AEd5-Uh-1.jpg

➡️ 'A new holding company ‘Nakamoto’ just raised $710 million to buy more Bitcoin and will merge with KindlyMD to establish a Bitcoin Treasury company. Saylor playbook!' - Bitcoin Archive

➡️American Bitcoin, backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, will go public via an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. Post-merger, Trump affiliates and Hut 8 will retain 98% ownership. GRYP tripled to $2.19, Hut 8 jumped 11% to $15.45. The deal closes in Q3 2025.

➡️Phoenix Wallet: 'Phoenix 0.6.0 is out: offers can now have a custom description simple close (set an exact mutual close tx fee rate) native support for Linux arm64 This is the server version. Phoenix mobile release is around the corner. '

On the 13th of May:

➡️Corporate Bitcoin purchases have now outweighed the supply of new Bitcoin by 3.3x in 2025. https://i.ibb.co/fVdgQhyY/Gq1ck-XRXUAAsg-Ym.jpg

➡️ Publicly listed Next Technology disclosed buying 5,000 Bitcoin for $180m, now HODLs 5,833 $BTC worth +$600m.

➡️ After rejecting the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed Bill SB 1373, which proposed a digital asset reserve fund. "Current volatility in the cryptocurrency markets does not make a prudent fit for general fund dollars."

➡️Meanwhile in Paris, France the kidnapping of a woman with her 2-year-old child morning on the streets of Paris - the target is allegedly the daughter of a crypto CEO. 3 masked men tried forcing them into a fake delivery van, before being fought off by her partner and bystanders. One of whom grabbed a dropped gun and aimed it back.

➡️ 'Bitcoin illiquid supply hit a new all-time high of $1.4B Are you HODLing too, anon?' - Bitcoin News

➡️Why Coinbase entering the S&P 500 matters. Boomers will have Bitcoin / CrApTo exposure, whether they like it or not. Anyway, remember what happened in 2021. The COIN IPO, and they’re still trading about 35% below their IPO-day high. Oh and please read the 'Coinbase" hack below haha.

➡️ Nasdaq listed GD Culture Group to sell up to $300 million shares to buy Bitcoin.

➡️ A Bitcoin wallet untouched since April 2014 just moved 300 BTC worth $31M for the first time in 11 years. This is how you HODL.

➡️ Bitcoin's realized price is steadily increasing, mirroring behaviors seen in past bull markets, according to CryptoQuant.

➡️ Bitcoin whales and sharks (10-10K BTC) accumulated 83,105 BTC in the last 30 days, while small retail holders (<0.1 BTC) sold 387 BTC, according to Santiment.

Bitcoin Whales have been AGGRESSIVELY accumulating BTC recently! With at least 240,000+ Bitcoin transferred to wallets with at least 100 BTC. The largest market participants are trying to buy as much as possible, what do they think comes next...

➡️'The average cost of mining 1 BTC for miners is currently $36.8K. The spread between the current market price and the cost of one coin = 182%. This is essentially the average profitability. This corresponds to the beginning of the bull cycle in November 2022 and the peaks of this cycle >$100K. A price increase above this level will allow miners to fully recover after the last halving and reach excess profits comparable to the beginning of the bull rally in January 2023.' -Axel Adler Jr.

➡️ Remember last week's segment on Coinbase..."Coinbase just disclosed in their Q1 filing: that they have custody of 2.68 million Bitcoin. That’s over 13% of all Bitcoin in circulation, on one platform. Is this the greatest honeypot in financial history? Yes, it is...read next week's Weekly Bitcoin update."

Well, here you go.

Coinbase estimates $180-$400 million in losses, remediation costs, and reimbursement following today’s cyber attack. https://i.ibb.co/jkysLtZ1/Gq-C7zl-W4-AAJ0-N6.jpg

Coinbase didn't get hacked. Coinbase employees sold customer data on the black market. Coinbase failed to protect customer data. This is why KYC is useless. The criminals have our driver's license scans. They have AI tools that can generate fake images and videos. KYC puts our identities at risk, makes onboarding more difficult, and rewards criminals. To make it even worse. Coinbase knew about the hack as early as January but only disclosed it publicly after being added to the S&P 500.

I will say it one more time! Don't buy your Bitcoin on KYC exchanges. KYC means handing over your identity to be leaked, sold, or extorted.

It was 2 days ago, see the bit on the 13th of May, that we saw a violent attack in Paris. Minimize the data you share with centralized tools. Store as much as you can locally. Always ask yourself what data am I giving and to whom? Remove the need for trust.

And for the love of God, Allah, or whatever god you are praying to...

DON'T LEAVE YOUR COINS ON A FREAKING EXCHANGE!!!!

Clear!

➡️ Sam Callahan: Bitcoin CAGRs over rolling four-year holding periods since 2012:

10th percentile: 33%

25th percentile: 50% 40th percentile: 75%

Said differently, for 90% of the time, Bitcoin’s four-year CAGR was higher than 33%. For comparison, here are the single best four-year CAGRs over the same period for:

Gold: 17%

Silver: 20%

S&P 500: 24%

Apple: 52%

Two lessons here:

1.) Even when Bitcoin underperforms, it still outperforms.

2.) Bitcoin holding goals are best measured in halving cycles.'

https://i.ibb.co/9m6q2118/Gq1-Ie2-Ob-AAIJ8-Kf.jpg

➡️ Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has bought 96,870 Strategy₿ stocks for 30 Million dollars at an Average Price Of $310 Per Share In Q1 2025, Their Total Holdings Is 518,000 Shares Worth Over 214 Million Dollars.

➡️Senator Lummis urges the U.S. Treasury to eliminate taxes on unrealized gains for Bitcoin.

On the 14th of May:

➡️At $168,000, Bitcoin will surpass Microsoft, the world's largest company.

➡️Fidelity tells institutions to buy Bitcoin if they can’t match Bitcoin’s 65% return on capital.

➡️Michigan has adopted House Resolution 100, declaring May 13 2025 as "Digital Asset Awareness Day." The resolution encourages "activities and programs that foster a deeper understanding of digital assets and their impact on our society and economy."

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz raises funding to buy $2 million in #Bitcoin assets.

➡️Bitcoin News: "Investor Jim Chanos is shorting MicroStrategy while going long on Bitcoin, calling the stock overvalued relative to its BTC holdings. “We’re selling MicroStrategy and buying Bitcoin, basically buying something for $1 and selling it for $2.50," he told CNBC

On the 15th of May:

➡️The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund disclosed owning $511 million in Bitcoin through BlackRock’s ETF.

➡️UK public company Coinsilium Group raises £1.25 million to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

➡️Chinese Textile company Addentax issues stock to buy 8,000 Bitcoin.

➡️14 US states have reported $632m in $MSTR exposure for Q1, in public retirement and treasury funds. A collective increase of $302m in one quarter. The average increase in holding size was 44%.

➡️Chinese public company DDC Enterprise to adopt a Bitcoin Reserve with 5,000 BTC.

On the 16th of May:

➡️Brazilian listed company Méliuz buys $28.4 million Bitcoin to become the nation's first Bitcoin Treasury Company. Shareholders voted to approve the strategy by an "overwhelming majority".

➡️13F Filings show Texas Retirement System owns MSTR. The day MSTR enters the S&P 500, every pension fund will follow.

➡️'Wealthy Investors Shift Up to 5% into Bitcoin as confidence in fiat falters. UBS, a Swiss banking giant says Bitcoin and digital assets are becoming key hedges against inflation and systemic risk, marking a dramatic shift in modern portfolio strategy.' -CarlBMenger

➡️River: "Above all, Bitcoin is money for the people." https://i.ibb.co/Jj8MVQwr/Gr-Ew-EPp-XAAA1-TVN.jpg

On the 17th of May:

➡️Illicit activity is now down to 0.14% of transaction volume across all crypto.

Context: World Bank, IMF suggests 1.5–4% of global GDP is laundered yearly through traditional banking Of that 0.14%:

63% of illicit trade was stablecoins.

13% was Bitcoin (declining each year)

Source: The 2025 Crypto Crime Report, Chainalysis 2025

Yet another confirmation that Bitcoin's use in facilitating illicit activities is a rounding error on a rounding error.

On the 18th of May:

➡️JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said they will allow clients to buy Bitcoin. The repeal of SAB 121 is a bigger deal than most realize. “I will fire any employee buying or trading Bitcoin for being stupid” - Jamie Dimon (2017) https://i.ibb.co/b5tnkb15/Gr-Vxxc-OXk-AA7cyo.jpg

On the 19th of May.

➡️Bookmark the following stuff from Daniel Batten if you want to combat climate change (fanatics)...

'That Bitcoin mining is not only not harmful, but beneficial to the environment is now supported by:

7 independent reports

20 peer-reviewed papers

As a result * 90% of climate-focused magazines * 87.5% of media coverage on Bitcoin & the environment is now positive * source 7 independent reports https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922666207754281449… * 20 peer-reviewed papers https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1923014527651615182… * 10 climate-focused magazines https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1919518338092323260… * 16 mainstream media articles https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922628399551434755

➡️Saifedean Ammous: '5 years ago at the height of corona hysteria, everyone worried about their savings.

If you put $10,000 in "risk-free" long-term US government bonds, you'd have $6,000 today.

If you put the $10,000 in "risky speculative tulip" bitcoin, you'd have $106,000.

HFSP, bondcucks!'

I love how Saifedean always put it so eloquently. haha

➡️An Australian judge rules Bitcoin is “just another form of money.” This could make it exempt from capital gains tax. Potentially opening the door to millions in refunds across the country. - AFR

If upheld, the decision could trigger up to $1B in refunds and overturn the Australian Tax Office’s crypto tax approach.

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz buys 16.9 Bitcoin for $1.75 Million for their treasury.

➡️Bitcoin just recorded its highest weekly close ever, while the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit its highest level in history.

➡️4 in 5 Americans want the U.S. to convert part of its gold reserves to Bitcoin. - The Nakamoto Project

"or background, the survey question was: "Assuming the United States was thinking of converting some of their gold reserves into Bitcoin, what percentage would you advise they convert?" Respondents were provided a slider used to choose between 0% and 100%. Our survey consisted of a national sample of 3,345 respondents recruited in partnership with Qualtrics, a survey and data collection company"

Context: https://x.com/thetrocro/status/1924552097565180107 https://i.ibb.co/fGDw06MC/Gr-VYDIdb-AAI7-Kxd.jpg

➡️Michael Saylor's STRATEGY bought another $764.9m Bitcoin. They now HODL 576,230 Bitcoin, acquired for $40.18 billion at $69,726 per Bitcoin.

➡️The German Government sold 49,858 BTC for $2.89B, at an average price of $57,900. If they had held it, their BTC would now be worth $5.24B.

➡️A record 63% of all the Bitcoin that exist have not transacted or moved from their wallets this year. - Wicked

https://i.ibb.co/j9nvbvmP/Gq3-Z-x6-Xw-AAv-Bhg.jpg

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽The S&P 500 has closed more than 20% above its April low, technically beginning a new bull market. We are now up +1,000 points in one month.

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽 Nvidia announces a partnership with Humain to build "AI factories of the future" in Saudi Arabia. Just one hour ago, Saudi Arabia signed an economic agreement with President Trump to invest $600 billion in the US.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 No news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽Huge pressure is on the European Union to reach a trade deal. Equities and commodities bounce hard on news of China-US trade deal. "We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%." - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

Dollar and Yuan strong bounce. Gold corrects.

👉🏽After reaching a high of 71% this year, recession odds are now back down to 40%. The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 fall to a new low of 40% following the US-China trade deal announcement.

👉🏽'Truly incredible:

1. Trump raises tariffs: Yields rise because inflation is back
2. Trump cuts tariffs: Yields rise because growth is back
3. Trump does nothing: Yields rise because the Fed won't cut rates Today, the bond market becomes Trump and Bessent's top priority.' - TKL

President Trump’s biggest problem persists even as trade deals are announced. Tariffs have been paused for 90 days, the US-China trade deal has been announced, and inflation data is down. Yet, the 10Y yield is nearing 4.50% again. Trump needs lower rates, but rates won’t fall.

👉🏽Last week a lot of talk on Japan’s Debt Death Spiral: Japan’s 40-year yield is detonating and the myth of consequence-free debt just died with it. One of the best explanations, you can read here:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Eye-opening chart. Can a country with a services-based economy remain a superpower? Building back US manufacturing base makes a lot of strategic and geopolitical sense.' https://i.ibb.co/Q3zJY9Fc/Gqxc6-Pt-WQAI73c.jpg

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽There is a possibility of a “big, beautiful” economic rebalancing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says at an investment forum in Saudi Arabia. The “dream scenario” would be if China and the US can work together on rebalancing, he adds

Luke Gromen: It does roll off the tongue a whole lot nicer than "We want to significantly devalue USD v. CNY, via a gold reference point."

Ergo: The price of gold specifically would rise in USD much more than it would in CNY, while prices for other goods and services would not, or would do so to a lesser degree.

👉🏽 Dutch inflation rises to 4.1 percent in April | CBS – final figure. Unchanged compared to the estimate.

👉🏽Philipp Heimberger: This interesting new paper argues that cuts to taxes on top incomes disproportionately benefit the financial sector. The finance industry gains more from top-income tax cuts than other industries. "Cuts in top income tax rates increase the (relative) size of the financial sector"

Source

Kinda obvious, innit?

👉🏽US CPI data released. Overall good results and cooler than expected month-over-month and year-over-year (outside of yearly core). U.S. inflation is down to 2.3%, lower than expected.

On the 14th of May:

👉🏽'The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go down.

A 2-percentage-point decrease in interest rates would save ~$568 billion in annual interest payments. However, this means government finances would worsen by more than DOUBLE the amount saved in interest due to a recession. An economic downturn would be incredibly costly for the US government.' -TKL

On the 15th of May:

👉🏽'In the Eurozone and the UK, households hold more than 30% of their financial assets in fiat currencies and bank deposits. This means that they (unknowingly?) allow inflation to destroy their purchasing power. The risks of inflation eating up your wealth increase in a debt-driven economic system characterized by fiscal dominance, where interest rates are structurally low and inflation levels and risks are high. There is so much forced and often failed regulation to increase financial literacy, but this part is never explained. Why is that, you think?' - Jeroen Blokland https://i.ibb.co/zWRpNqhz/Gq-jn-Bn-X0-AAmplm.png

On the 16th of May:

👉🏽'For the first time in a year, Japan's economy shrank by -0.7% in Q1 2025. This is more than double the decline expected by economists. Furthermore, this data does NOT include the reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2nd. Japan's economy is heading for a recession.' -TKL

👉🏽'246 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years. This is up from 206 recorded last year and more than DOUBLE during the same period in 2022. In April alone, the US saw 59 bankruptcy filings as tariffs ramped up. So far this year, the industrials sector has seen 41 bankruptcies, followed by 31 in consumer discretionary, and 17 in healthcare. According to S&P Global, consumer discretionary companies have been hit the hardest due to market volatility, tariffs, and inflation uncertainty. We expect a surge in bankruptcies in 2025.' -TKL

👉🏽'Moody's just downgraded the United States' credit rating for the FIRST time in history. The reason: An unsustainable path for US federal debt and its resulting interest burden. Moody's notes that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 134% by 2035. Federal interest payments are set to equal ~30% of revenue by 2035, up from ~18% in 2024 and ~9% in 2021. Furthermore, deficit spending is now at World War 2 levels as a percentage of GDP. The US debt crisis is our biggest issue with the least attention.' - TKL

Still, this is a nothing burger. In August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US to AA+, and S&P (2011) the US became a split-rated AA+ country. This downgrade had almost no effect on the bond market. The last of the rating agencies, Moodys, pushed the US down to AA+ today. So technically it didn’t even change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+, now it’s unanimous AA+.

Ergo: Nothing changed. America now shares a credit rating with Austria and Finland. Hard assets don’t lie. Watch Gold and Bitcoin.

https://i.ibb.co/Q7DcWY2P/Gr-K66i-EXIAAKh-MR.jpg

RAY DALIO: Credit Agencies are UNDERSTATING sovereign credit risks because "they don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts" with devalued currency.

👉🏽US consumer credit card serious delinquencies are rising at a CRISIS pace: The share of US credit card debt that is past due at least 90 days hit 12.3% in Q1 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS. The percentage has risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis.' - Global Markets Investor

https://i.ibb.co/nNH9CxVK/Gr-E838o-XYAIk-Fyn.png

On the 18th of May:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Look at ten bottom of this list. Milei has not only proven that real free market reforms work, but he has also proven that they work fast. It’s bigger than Argentina now, no wonder that the left legacy media doesn’t like him so much.' https://i.ibb.co/MDnBCDSY/Gr-Npu-KKWMAAf-Pc.jpg

On the 19th of May: 👉🏽Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.” All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again. You and your mother should be scared out of your fucking minds. https://i.ibb.co/rGZ9cMtv/GTXx-S7-Cb-MAAOu-Vt.png

👉🏽 TKL: 'Investors are piling into gold funds like never before: Gold funds have posted a record $85 BILLION in net inflows year-to-date. This is more than DOUBLE the full-year record seen in 2020. At this pace, net inflows will surpass $180 billion by the end of 2025. Gold is now the best-performing major asset class, up 22% year-to-date. Since the low in October 2022, gold prices have gained 97%. Gold is the global hedge against uncertainty.'

🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift, well, in this case, two gifts:

What Bitcoin Did - IS THE FED LOSING CONTROL? With Matthew Mezinskis

'Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of the Crypto Voices podcast, and creator of Porkopolis Economics. In this episode, we discuss fractional reserve banking, why it's controversial among Bitcoiners, the historical precedent for banking practices, and whether fractional reserve banking inherently poses systemic risks. We also get into the dangers and instabilities introduced by central banking, why Bitcoin uniquely offers a pathway to financial sovereignty, the plumbing of the global financial system, breaking down money supply metrics, foreign holdings of US treasuries, and how all these elements indicate growing instability in the dollar system.'

https://youtu.be/j-XPVOl9zGc

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly.

Use the code SE3997

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀

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Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

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@ 58537364:705b4b85

Ikigai means "the meaning of life" or "the reason for being." Why were we born? What are we living for? When work is not seen as something separate from life.

The Japanese believe that everyone has their own ikigai. Those who discover it find meaning and value in life, leading to greater happiness, better moods, and a more fulfilling world.

Today, there are many books about ikigai, but the first one written by a Japanese author is:

“The Little Book of Ikigai: The Secret Japanese Way to Live a Happy and Long Life” by Ken Mogi (Thai translation by Wuttichai Krisanaprakankit)

Come explore the true world of ikigai through this Japanese neuroscientist’s insights, conveyed through conversations that challenge the idea of ikigai as something grand—showing instead that it starts with small personal joys.

Ken Mogi says that Jiro Ono, a 94-year-old sushi chef who still makes sushi today, was his inspiration for writing the book.

This sushi chef did not start the job out of passion or talent—but he dedicated every piece of sushi to bring happiness to his customers. That, Ken says, is the essence of ikigai.

Strangely, the word “ikigai” is not often used in daily conversations in Japan.

Because it’s something so natural that it doesn’t need to be said. In today’s world, we often talk about how to succeed, how to get promoted, how to become a CEO. But for the Japanese, success isn’t everything.

For example, many Japanese people are deeply passionate about hobbies or have kodawari. Others might not care what those hobbies are—as long as the person seems happy, that’s enough. Some are obsessed with trains, manga, or anime. These people don’t need fame or recognition from society. If they’re happy in their own way, that’s perfectly okay.

Kodawari means a deep dedication or meticulous attention to something. For example, someone obsessed with stationery might spend a lot of time selecting the perfect pens, notebooks, or pencils. They’ll research, analyze, and experiment to find the tools they love most.

Everyone’s ikigai can be different, because people value different things and live differently.

Ikigai is about diversity. Japanese society encourages children to discover their own ikigai. They don’t tell kids to pursue jobs only because they pay well. If you ask students what jobs they want, they rarely say it’s about money first.

Ikigai is not the same as "success." The Japanese know that life isn’t just about being successful. Ikigai matters more. You could be successful but lack ikigai. Conversely, you might not be “successful” but still have ikigai—and you might be happier.

Ken Mogi defines success as something society acknowledges and rewards. But ikigai comes from your own heart and personal happiness. Others may not recognize it as success, but that doesn’t matter.

Ikigai is personal. We can be happy in our own way. We don’t judge others’ happiness—let them find joy in their own path.

The key to ikigai is finding small moments of happiness, even from little things. For example, when Ken was a child, he loved studying butterflies. Now, when he’s out jogging and sees a beautiful butterfly, he feels ikigai. Or sometimes, it comes from small amusing moments—like hearing a child tell his dad, “Dad, you have to do it this way!”

So, if we want to find our own ikigai, where do we start? Start with noticing small pleasures in daily life. That’s the easiest place to begin.

In the brain, there's a chemical called dopamine. When we achieve even small things, dopamine is released, creating happiness. That’s why enjoying small things is so important.

For some, ikigai might seem hard to grasp—especially if life is difficult, if they feel hopeless or lack self-worth. So begin with tiny moments of joy.

Is it the same as positive thinking? Ikigai is a part of that. But when we talk about “positive thinking,” it can feel like pressure to some people. So instead, just notice small joys: making your morning coffee, running in the rain.

---

Lessons from Ken Mogi:

1. Ikigai is not about chasing success or wealth, but about feeling happiness in your own life, which gives your life personal meaning.

2. Ikigai is not defined by society. Everyone’s ikigai is different. Each person can be happy in their own way.

3. **Don’t judge or force others—**children, partners—to live how you think is right. Respect diversity.

4. Smile at people who are enjoying their ikigai, and support them if they struggle.

5. Ikigai exists on two levels:

6. Big ikigai: life purpose or work values.

7. Small ikigai: tiny joys in everyday life.

8. Ikigai starts with noticing small pleasures today.

---

Source: From the Cloud of Thoughts column An interview by Ajarn Katewadi from Marumura with Ken Mogi, author of the first Japanese book on ikigai.

@ 58537364:705b4b85

อิคิไก (Ikigai) แปลว่า ความหมายของการมีชีวิตอยู่ เหตุผลของการมีชีวิตอยู่ เราเกิดมาเพื่ออะไร ใช้ชีวิตอยู่ไปทำไม เมื่อการงานไม่ใช่สิ่งที่แปลกแยกจากชีวิต

คนญี่ปุ่นเชื่อว่าทุกคนมี ikigai ของตัวเอง ผู้ที่ค้นพบ ikigai จะเจอความหมายและคุณค่าของชีวิต ทำให้มีความสุขกว่า อารมณ์ดีกว่า และมีโลกที่น่าอยู่กว่าด้วย

ปัจจุบัน มีหนังสือเกี่ยวกับอิคิไกออกวางขายเป็นจำนวนมาก แต่เล่มที่คนญี่ปุ่นเป็นคนเขียนเล่มแรกนั้น คือ

• The Little Book of Ikigai : The secret Japanese way to live a happy and long life โดยอาจารย์เคน โมหงิ (แปลภาษาไทยโดย คุณวุฒิชัย กฤษณะประการกิจ)

ตามมาสัมผัสโลกของอิคิไกที่แท้จริงจากนักวิทยาศาสตร์วิจัยด้านสมองชาวญี่ปุ่นคนนี้ ผ่านบทสนทนาที่จะเปลี่ยนความคิดใหม่ที่ว่า 'อิคิไก' เริ่มต้นจากมองหาความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ในแบบของตัวเราเอง

อาจารย์เคน โมหงิว่า ปู่จิโร่ เชฟซูชิวัย 94 ปี ที่ยังยืนปั้นซูชิให้เราทานอยู่ในทุกวันนี้ เป็นแรงบันดาลใจให้อาจารย์เกิดไอเดียในการเขียนหนังสืออิคิไก

เชฟซูชิที่ ‘ไม่ได้’ เริ่มเลือกงานนี้เพราะความรักหรือความถนัด แต่กลับทุ่มเทปั้นซูชิทุกคำเพื่อให้ลูกค้ามีความสุข… นั่นคือต้นแบบของอิคิไก

น่าแปลกที่คนญี่ปุ่นไม่ค่อยใช้คำว่า ‘อิคิไก’ ในชีวิตประจำวันหรือบทสนทนาทั่วไปเท่าไหร่

เพราะมันเป็นสิ่งที่ปกติและเราทำกันตามธรรมชาติ ในโลกปัจจุบัน เรามักพูดกันว่าทำอย่างไรเราถึงจะประสบความสำเร็จ ทำอย่างไรจะได้เลื่อนตำแหน่ง หากอยากเป็น CEO จะเป็นได้อย่างไร แต่คนญี่ปุ่นมีความคิดว่าความสำเร็จไม่ใช่ทุกอย่างในชีวิต

ยกตัวอย่างเช่นมีคนญี่ปุ่นจำนวนมากที่จริงจังกับงานอดิเรก หรือมี โคดาวาริ* คนอื่นไม่สนหรอกว่างานอดิเรกของคนคนนั้นจะเป็นอะไร ตราบใดที่คนคนนั้นดูมีความสุขดีนั่นก็โอเคแล้ว มีคนจำนวนมากคลั่งไคล้รถไฟ มังงะ (หนังสือการ์ตูน) หรือแอนิเมะ (ภาพยนตร์การ์ตูน) คนเหล่านี้ไม่จำเป็นต้องมีชื่อเสียงหรือได้รับการยอมรับจากสังคม ตราบเท่าที่พวกเขามีความสุขในแบบของเขาเอง มันก็ดีแล้ว

• ความพิถีพิถันใส่ใจในบางเรื่องเป็นพิเศษ เช่น คนที่ชอบเครื่องเขียนมากๆ จะพิถีพิถันในการเลือกปากกา สมุด ดินสอที่ตนเองจะใช้ เพราะฉะนั้น คนที่มีโคดาวาริเหล่านี้จะศึกษาเครื่องเขียนจนถึงที่สุด วิเคราะห์ ทดลอง จนพบว่าเครื่องเขียนแบบใดที่ตนเองหลงใหลที่สุด

อิคิไกของแต่ละคนอาจแตกต่างกัน ต่างคนอาจมีค่านิยมที่ต่างกัน ซึ่งสะท้อนในรูปแบบชีวิตที่แตกต่างกันก็ได้

อิคิไกเป็นเรื่องของความหลากหลายนะ สังคมญี่ปุ่นพยายามผลักดันให้เด็กๆ ทุกคนตามหาอิคิไกของตนเอง เราจะไม่บอกว่า งานนี้เงินดี ทำสิ หรืองานนี้เงินน้อย อย่าไปทำเลย ถ้าคุณถามนักศึกษาว่า พวกเขาอยากทำงานอะไร พวกเขาคงไม่ตอบว่าเลือกทำที่บริษัทนี้เพราะเงินเป็นอันดับแรกหรอก

อิคิไกแตกต่างจากคำว่า ‘ความสำเร็จ’ คนญี่ปุ่นรู้ว่าชีวิตไม่ได้มีแค่เรื่องประสบความสำเร็จ อิคิไกสำคัญกับชีวิตมากกว่า คุณอาจจะประสบความสำเร็จ แต่คุณอาจไม่มีอิคิไก ในทางกลับกัน แม้คุณไม่ประสบความสำเร็จ คุณอาจจะมีอิคิไกก็ได้ ซึ่งชีวิตคุณอาจจะมีความสุขมากกว่า

อาจารย์เคน โมหงินิยามคำว่า ‘ความสำเร็จ’ คือสิ่งที่คุณจะได้รับการยอมรับจากคนในสังคมหรือบริบทสังคมนั้นๆ แต่อิคิไกมาจากหัวใจของคุณ มาจากความสุขส่วนตัวของคุณ คนอื่นอาจจะไม่ได้มองว่านั่นคือความสำเร็จ

อิคิไกเป็นสิ่งที่เฉพาะบุคคล เราสามารถมีความสุขในแบบของเราเอง เราไม่ตัดสินความสุขของคนอื่น และให้เขามีความสุขในแบบของเขาเอง…

สิ่งสำคัญของอิคิไกคือ คุณมีความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ จากเรื่องที่ดูเหมือนเป็นเรื่องเล็กๆ น้อยๆ หรือเปล่า เช่น ตอนเด็กๆ ผมชอบศึกษาเกี่ยวกับผีเสื้อ เวลาผมไปวิ่งออกกำลังกายแล้วเห็นผีเสื้อสวยๆ ผมก็สัมผัสได้ถึงอิคิไก หรือบางทีอาจเกิดขึ้นตอนที่ผมรู้สึกตลกๆ ก็ได้ ผมเห็นเด็กผู้ชายคนหนึ่งบอกพ่อว่า “พ่อๆ ต้องทำอย่างนี้สิ” เวลาผมได้ยินบทสนทนาแบบนี้ ผมก็รู้สึกถึงอิคิไก

หากพวกเราอยากมีอิคิไกบ้าง เราควรเริ่มจากอะไรดี ? เริ่มจากการสัมผัสความสุขจากสิ่งเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ก่อน มันเริ่มทำได้ง่ายที่สุด ในสมองเรามีสารชื่อโดพามีน หากเราทำอะไรสำเร็จเล็กๆ น้อยๆ โดพามีนจะหลั่งออกมา วงจรนั้นจะช่วยทำให้คุณมีความสุข การมีความสุขกับสิ่งเล็กๆ เช่นนี้เป็นเรื่องสำคัญมาก สำหรับหลายคน แนวคิดเรื่องอิคิไกอาจเข้าใจยาก หรือยากสำหรับบางคนที่ชีวิตพวกเขากำลังอยู่ในช่วงยากลำบาก กำลังรู้สึกหมดหวัง ท้อแท้ หรือไม่ได้เคารพตนเอง เพราะฉะนั้น เริ่มจากความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ก่อนครับ

มันเหมือนการคิดบวกไหม ? อิคิไกเป็นส่วนหนึ่งนะ เวลาเราคิดถึงชีวิต หรือคิดหาวิธีการคิดบวก มันเป็นเรื่องที่ซับซ้อนมาก สำหรับบางคนคำว่า ‘คิดบวก’ อาจฟังดูกดดันสำหรับพวกเขา เพราะฉะนั้น เริ่มจากการมองเห็นความสุขจากสิ่งเล็กๆ น้อยๆ รอบตัว สิ่งเล็กมากๆ เช่นการได้ตื่นมาชงกาแฟดื่ม การได้วิ่งกลางสายฝน

Lesson from Ken Mogi 1. อิคิไก ไม่ใช่การแสวงหาความสำเร็จหรือความร่ำรวย แต่เป็นการรู้สึกหรือสัมผัสถึงความสุขในชีวิตของตนเอง จนทำให้เราเห็นความหมายของชีวิตเราในแบบของเรา 2. อิคิไกไม่ใช่สิ่งที่สังคมนิยามหรือโลกให้ความสำคัญ แต่ละคนมีอิคิไกที่แตกต่างกัน และมีความสุขกับชีวิตในแบบของตนเอง ที่เราเลือกเอง 3. เราไม่ควรตัดสินคนอื่นหรือบีบบังคับคนอื่น เช่น ลูก แฟน ให้ใช้ชีวิตในแบบที่เราคิดว่าใช่ แต่เราควรเคารพความหลากหลายนั้น 4. มองคนที่มีอิคิไกหรือกำลังสนุกกับสิ่งที่พวกเขารักด้วยรอยยิ้ม และคอยช่วยเหลือหากพวกเขาลำบาก 5. อิคิไกมีทั้งระดับใหญ่ ซึ่งเกี่ยวกับแนวทางชีวิตหรือคุณค่าของงาน และอิคิไกระดับเล็กคือการสัมผัสความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ที่พบเห็นได้ในชีวิตประจำวัน 6. อิคิไก เริ่มต้นจากมองหาความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ในวันนี้

ที่มา : จากคอลัมน์ Cloud of Thoughts บทสัมภาษณ์ของอ.เกตุวดี Marumura พาไปคุยกับอาจารย์เคน โมหงิ ผู้เขียนหนังสืออิคิไกเล่มแรก!

@ 866e0139:6a9334e5

Autor: Alexa Rodrian. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.

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Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.

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„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt.

Die Sängerin Alexa Rodrian erlebte bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises einen solchen Moment der Desillusion. Es war der Auftritt des Liedermachers Wolf Biermann. Hören Sie hierzu Alexa Rodrians Text „Wolf Biermann und sein falscher Friede“.

Hier zum Nachhören:

https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/wolf-biermann-und-sein-falscher-friede-von-alexa-rodrian

Dieser Beitrag erschien zuerst auf Radio München.

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Sie sind noch nicht auf Nostr and wollen die volle Erfahrung machen (liken, kommentieren etc.)? Zappen können Sie den Autor auch ohne Nostr-Profil! Erstellen Sie sich einen Account auf Start. Weitere Onboarding-Leitfäden gibt es im Pareto-Wiki.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Artificial intelligence is upon us and not showing any signs of slowing. The most common concern from those in the workforce is being replaced by one of these “thinking machines”. But what if AI wasn’t coming for your job? What if it was coming for your boss’s job instead?

I happened across the following post on X: https://x.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1905754986795151629 Brian describes having installed an AI system that provides an omniscient “shadow” to each of the executives at a client company, which can then be queried by the CEO for reports. The CEO seems to like it so far, and if it leads to less time spent writing internal reports I’m sure the executives like it too. But many of you may be recoiling at the thought of an always-on nanycam who’s sole purpose seems to be to snitch on you to your boss, and judging by the replies to Brian’s post, you’re not alone. If your supervisor has a history of targeting you your fears may not be misplaced. Workplace surveillance tools are often coyly marketed for this.

What if instead of your boss using an AI tool to spy on you, your boss was completely replaced by an AI? Would your supervisor having no biases or favouritism sway your opinion? What about being able to tailor its communication specifically to you? Expressing no judgement at your clarifying questions? Being immediately available 24/7? Perfectly equitable expectations and performance reviews? Just writing that almost has me convinced this would usher in a workplace utopia.

In practice guaranteeing zero bias is extremely difficult. After all, these things are programmed by humans and learn from human data. Their “weights” could also be intentionally adjusted to favour or target. If the AI’s supervisor follows the Pareto Principle (also known as the 80/20 Rule) they may be tempted to ask it for a list of the lowest performing employees to be laid off on a regular basis. Not keeping yourself in the top 20% of performers (by whatever metrics the AI has been programmed to look for) may mean your job. The dystopian-future videogame “Cyberpunk 2077” tells a story of a company that brings in an AI only to have it fire all the human workers in favour of automation and copies of itself. Clearly it’s implementers forgot to set hard limits on its executive powers. The shareholders were happy with all-time high profits though…

When technology is blamed for these sorts of existential problems the IT industry collectively sighs and repeats the mantra, “The problem is not the technology. The problem is the people.” A quote from a 1979 IBM presentation is likewise summoned; “A computer can never be held accountable, therefore a computer must never make a management decision.” As a darker example, the Nuremberg trials post-WWII saw the precedent set that acting under “superior orders” is not a valid defence for war crimes or crimes against humanity. It seems responsibility can’t be passed to others, whether man or machine. The endless task of generating reports and presentations can probably be automated away though.

Would you work under an AI, or “hire” an AI to manage others? We can help you with that; you can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 975e4ad5:8d4847ce

Selfishness as Bitcoin’s Engine

Bitcoin, created by Satoshi Nakamoto, operates on a clear mechanism: miners use computational power to solve complex mathematical puzzles, verifying transactions on the network. In return, they earn rewards in Bitcoin. This is pure self-interest—miners want to maximize their profits. But while pursuing personal gain, they inadvertently maintain the entire system. Each new block added to the blockchain makes the network more stable and resilient against attacks. The more miners join, the more decentralized the system becomes, rendering it nearly impossible to manipulate.

This mechanism is brilliant because it taps into human nature—the desire for personal gain—to create something greater. Bitcoin doesn’t rely on altruism or good intentions. It relies on rational self-interest, which drives individuals to act in their own favor, ultimately benefiting the entire community.

The World Works the Same Way

This concept isn’t unique to Bitcoin. The world is full of examples where personal interest leads to collective progress. When an entrepreneur creates a new product, they do so to make money, but in the process, they create jobs, advance technology, and improve people’s lives. When a scientist works on a breakthrough, they may be driven by fame or financial reward, but the result is often a discovery that changes the world. Even in everyday life, when we buy products or services for our own convenience, we support the economy and encourage innovation.

Of course, self-interest doesn’t always lead to positive outcomes. Technologies created with good intentions can be misused—for example, in wars or for fraud. But even these negative aspects don’t halt progress. Competition and the drive for survival push humanity to find solutions, learn from mistakes, and keep moving forward. This is the cycle of development: individual self-interest fuels innovations that make the world more technological and connected.

Nature and Bitcoin: The DNA Parallel

To understand this mechanism, let’s look to nature. Consider the cells in a living organism. Each cell operates independently, following the instructions encoded in its DNA—a code that dictates its actions. The cell doesn’t “know” about the entire body, nor does it care. It simply strives for its own survival, performing its functions. But when billions of cells work together, following this code, they create something greater—a living organism.

Bitcoin is like the DNA of a decentralized system. Each miner is like a cell, following the “instructions” of the protocol to survive (profit). They don’t think about the entire network, only their own reward. But when all miners act together, they create something bigger—a global, secure, and resilient financial system. This is the beauty of decentralization: everyone acts for themselves, but the result is collective.

Selfishness and Humanity

Humans are no different from cells. Each of us wants to thrive—to have security, comfort, and success. But in pursuing these goals, we contribute to society. A teacher educates because they want to earn a living, but they shape future generations. An engineer builds a bridge because it’s their job, but it facilitates transportation for millions. Even in our personal lives, when we care for our families, we strengthen the social bonds that make society stronger.

Of course, there are exceptions—people who act solely for personal gain without regard for consequences. But even these outliers don’t change the bigger picture. Selfishness, when channeled correctly, is a driver of progress. Bitcoin is proof of this—a technology that turns personal interest into global innovation.

Bitcoin is more than just a cryptocurrency; it’s a mirror of human nature and the way the world works. Its design harnesses selfishness to create something sustainable and valuable. Just like cells in a body or people in society, Bitcoin miners work for themselves but contribute to something greater. It’s a reminder that even in our pursuit of personal gain, we can make the world a better place—as long as we follow the right “code.”

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

🏌️ Monday, May 26 – Bitcoin Golf Championship & Kickoff Party

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada\ Event: 2nd Annual Bitcoin Golf Championship & Kick Off Party"\ Where: Bali Hai Golf Clubhouse, 5160 S Las Vegas Blvd, Las Vegas, NV 89119\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!

Details:

• The week tees off in style with the Bitcoin Golf Championship. Swing clubs by day and swing to music by night.

• Live performances from Nostr-powered acts courtesy of Tunestr, including Ainsley Costello and others.

• Stop by the Purple Pill Booth hosted by Derek and Tanja, who will be on-boarding golfers and attendees to the decentralized social future with Nostr.

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💬 May 27–29 – Bitcoin 2025 Conference at the Las Vegas Convention Center

Location: The Venetian Resort\ Main Attraction for Nostr Fans: The Nostr Lounge\ When: All day, Tuesday through Thursday\ Where: Right outside the Open Source Stage\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!

Come chill at the Nostr Lounge, your home base for all things decentralized social. With seating for \~50, comfy couches, high-tops, and good vibes, it’s the perfect space to meet developers, community leaders, and curious newcomers building the future of censorship-resistant communication.

Bonus: Right across the aisle, you’ll find Shopstr, a decentralized marketplace app built on Nostr. Stop by their booth to explore how peer-to-peer commerce works in a truly open ecosystem.

Daily Highlights at the Lounge:

• ☕️ Hang out casually or sit down for a deeper conversation about the Nostr protocol

• 🔧 1:1 demos from app teams

• 🛍️ Merch available onsite

• 🧠 Impromptu lightning talks

• 🎤 Scheduled Meetups (details below)

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🎯 Nostr Lounge Meetups

Wednesday, May 28 @ 1:00 PM

• Damus Meetup: Come meet the team behind Damus, the OG Nostr app for iOS that helped kickstart the social revolution. They'll also be showcasing their new cross-platform app, Notedeck, designed for a more unified Nostr experience across devices. Grab some merch, get a demo, and connect directly with the developers.

Thursday, May 29 @ 1:00 PM

• Primal Meetup: Dive into Primal, the slickest Nostr experience available on web, Android, and iOS. With a built-in wallet, zapping your favorite creators and friends has never been easier. The team will be on-site for hands-on demos, Q\&A, merch giveaways, and deeper discussions on building the social layer of Bitcoin.

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🎙️ Nostr Talks at Bitcoin 2025

If you want to hear from the minds building decentralized social, make sure you attend these two official conference sessions:

1. FROSTR Workshop: Multisig Nostr Signing

• 🕚 Time: 11:30 AM – 12:00 PM

• 📅 Date: Wednesday, May 28

• 📍 Location: Developer Zone

• 🎤 Speaker: nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcqpqs9etjgzjglwlaxdhsveq0qksxyh6xpdpn8ajh69ruetrug957r3qf4ggfm (Austin Kelsay) @ Voltage\ A deep-dive into FROST-based multisig key management for Nostr. Geared toward devs and power users interested in key security.

2. Panel: Decentralizing Social Media

• 🕑 Time: 2:00 PM – 2:30 PM

• 📅 Date: Thursday, May 29

• 📍 Location: Genesis Stage

• 🎙️ Moderator: nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqy08wumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttjv4kxz7fwv3jhyettwfhhxuewd4jsqgxnqajr23msx5malhhcz8paa2t0r70gfjpyncsqx56ztyj2nyyvlq00heps - Bitcoin Strategy @ Roxom TV

• 👥 Speakers:

• nostr:nprofile1qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qqsy2ga7trfetvd3j65m3jptqw9k39wtq2mg85xz2w542p5dhg06e5qmhlpep – Early Bitcoin dev, CEO @ Sirius Business Ltd

• nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytndv9kxjm3wdahxcqg5waehxw309ahx7um5wfekzarkvyhxuet5qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncdhu7e3 – Analyst & Partner @ Ego Death Capital

Get the big-picture perspective on why decentralized social matters and how Nostr fits into the future of digital communication.

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🌃 NOS VEGAS Meetup & Afterparty

Date: Wednesday, May 28\ Time: 7:00 PM – 1:00 AM\ Location: We All Scream Nightclub, 517 Fremont St., Las Vegas, NV 89101\ 🎟️ Get Tickets!

What to Expect:

• 🎶 Live Music Stage – Featuring Ainsley Costello, Sara Jade, Able James, Martin Groom, Bobby Shell, Jessie Lark, and other V4V artists

• 🪩 DJ Party Deck – With sets by nostr:nprofile1qy0hwumn8ghj7cmgdae82uewd45kketyd9kxwetj9e3k7mf6xs6rgqgcwaehxw309ahx7um5wgh85mm694ek2unk9ehhyecqyq7hpmq75krx2zsywntgtpz5yzwjyg2c7sreardcqmcp0m67xrnkwylzzk4 , nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgkwaehxw309anx2etywvhxummnw3ezucnpdejqqg967faye3x6fxgnul77ej23l5aew8yj0x2e4a3tq2mkrgzrcvecfsk8xlu3 , and more DJs throwing down

• 🛰️ Live-streamed via Tunestr

• 🧠 Nostr Education – Talks by nostr:nprofile1qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq37amnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3dwfjkccte9ejx2un9ddex7umn9ekk2tcqyqlhwrt96wnkf2w9edgr4cfruchvwkv26q6asdhz4qg08pm6w3djg3c8m4j , nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqg7waehxw309anx2etywvhxummnw3ezucnpdejz7ur0wp6kcctjqqspywh6ulgc0w3k6mwum97m7jkvtxh0lcjr77p9jtlc7f0d27wlxpslwvhau , nostr:nprofile1qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq3vamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd33xgetk9en82m30qqsgqke57uygxl0m8elstq26c4mq2erz3dvdtgxwswwvhdh0xcs04sc4u9p7d , nostr:nprofile1q9z8wumn8ghj7erzx3jkvmmzw4eny6tvw368wdt8da4kxamrdvek76mrwg6rwdngw94k67t3v36k77tev3kx7vn2xa5kjem9dp4hjepwd3hkxctvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnhd9hx2qpqyaul8k059377u9lsu67de7y637w4jtgeuwcmh5n7788l6xnlnrgssuy4zk , nostr:nprofile1qy28wue69uhnzvpwxqhrqt33xgmn5dfsx5cqz9thwden5te0v4jx2m3wdehhxarj9ekxzmnyqqswavgevxe9gs43vwylumr7h656mu9vxmw4j6qkafc3nefphzpph8ssvcgf8 , and more.

• 🧾 Vendors & Project Booths – Explore new tools and services

• 🔐 Onboarding Stations – Learn how to use Nostr hands-on

• 🐦 Nostrich Flocking – Meet your favorite nyms IRL

• 🍸 Three Full Bars – Two floors of socializing overlooking vibrant Fremont Street

| | | | | ----------- | -------------------- | ------------------- | | Time | Name | Topic | | 7:30-7:50 | Derek | Nostr for Beginners | | 8:00-8:20 | Mark & Paul | Primal | | 8:30-8:50 | Terry | Damus | | 9:00-9:20 | OpenMike and Ainsley | V4V | | 09:30-09:50 | The Space | Space |

This is the after-party of the year for those who love freedom technology and decentralized social community. Don’t miss it.

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Final Thoughts

Whether you're there to learn, network, party, or build, Bitcoin 2025 in Las Vegas has a packed week of Nostr-friendly programming. Be sure to catch all the events, visit the Nostr Lounge, and experience the growing decentralized social revolution.

🟣 Find us. Flock with us. Purple pill someone.

@ ff517fbf:fde1561b

ビットコインが「最強の担保」と言われる理由

ビットコインは「デジタルゴールド」とも呼ばれることがありますが、実はローンの担保としても最強だと言われています。その理由を、他の資産（株式、不動産、金など）と比較しながら見てみましょう。

• 流動性と即時性：ビットコインは24時間365日世界中で取引されているため、非常に流動性が高い資産です。売買がすぐにできて価格も常に明確なので、担保評価がしやすく、お金を貸す側・借りる側双方に安心感を与えます。一方、株式や不動産は市場が営業時間内しか動かず、現金化にも時間がかかります。不動産は売却に数ヶ月かかることもありますし、金（ゴールド）は現物を保管・輸送する手間があります。ビットコインならネット上で即座に担保設定・解除ができるのです。

• 分割性と柔軟性：ビットコインは小数点以下8桁まで分割可能（1億分の1が最小単位の「サトシ」）なので、必要な額だけ正確に担保に充てることができます。他方、土地や建物を一部だけ担保に入れることは難しいですし、株式も1株未満の細かい調整はできません。ビットコインなら価値の微調整が容易で、担保として柔軟に扱えるのです。

• 管理のしやすさ（マルチシグによる信頼性）：HodlHodlのLendでは、ビットコイン担保は2-of-3のマルチシグ契約で管理されます。これは「借り手・貸し手・プラットフォーム」の3者それぞれが鍵を持ち、2つの鍵の同意がないとビットコインを動かせない仕組みです。このため、誰か一人が勝手に担保を持ち逃げすることができず、第三者（HodlHodl）も単独ではコインを移動できません。ビットコインだからこそ実現できる非中央集権で安全な担保管理であり、株式や不動産を担保にする場合のように銀行や証券会社といった仲介業者に頼る必要がありません。

• 国境を越えた利用：ビットコインはインターネットがつながる所なら世界中どこでも送受信できます。このため、日本にいながら海外の相手とでもローン契約が可能です。たとえば日本の方がビットコインを担保にドル建てのステーブルコインを借り、それを日本円に換えて使うこともできます（為替リスクには注意ですが…）。不動産を海外の人と直接やり取りするのは現実的に難しいですが、ビットコインならグローバルに担保が活用できるのです。

• 希少性と価値の上昇期待：ビットコインは発行上限が決まっており（2100万BTCまで）、時間とともに新規供給が減っていきます。過去の長期的な価格推移を見ると、短期的な変動は激しいものの数年〜十年のスパンでは上昇傾向にあります。一方、法定通貨建ての資産（債券や株式など）はインフレの影響で実質価値が目減りすることがあります。ビットコインは長期保有すれば価値が上がりやすい特性があるため、「今手放したくない資産」として担保に向いています。実際、HodlHodlのチームは「ビットコインはスーパーカCollateral（超優秀な担保）だ」と述べています。

こうした理由から、ビットコインは現時点で考えうる中でも最良の担保資産と考えられています。株や不動産のように書類手続きや名義変更をしなくても、ビットコインならブロックチェーン上の契約でシンプルに担保設定ができる――この手軽さと信頼性が大きな魅力です。

匿名&プライバシー重視：KYC不要のP2Pレンディングのメリット

HodlHodlのLend最大の特徴の一つは、本人確認（KYC）が一切不要だという点です。日本の多くの金融サービスでは口座開設時に運転免許証やマイナンバー提出など煩雑な手続きが必要ですが、Lendではメールアドレスでアカウント登録するだけでOK。これは「匿名性・プライバシー」を重視する人にとって非常に相性が良いポイントです。

• 個人情報を晒さなくて良い安心感：日本では昔から「人に迷惑をかけない」「目立たない」ことが美徳とされ、特にお金の話は他人に知られたくないと考える人が多いですよね。Lendは匿名で利用できるため、借金をすることを周囲に知られたくない人でも安心です。銀行からローンを借りるときのように収入証明や保証人を用意する必要もなく、誰にも知られずひっそりと資金調達ができます。

• ノー・チェック＆ノー・ペーパー：貸し借りにあたって信用審査や過去の借入履歴チェックがありません 。極端な話、今まで金融履歴が全く無い人や、銀行に相手にされないような人でも、ビットコインさえ持っていればお金を借りられるのです。書類のやり取りが無いので手続きもスピーディーです。「印鑑証明や収入証明を揃えて…」という面倒とは無縁で、ネット上でクリックして契約が完結します。

• プライバシーの保護：個人情報を提出しないということは、情報漏洩のリスクも無いということです。近年、日本でも個人情報の流出事件が相次いでおり、不安に感じる方も多いでしょう。Lendではアカウント登録時にメールアドレスとパスワード以外何も求められません。財務情報や身元情報がどこかに蓄積される心配がないのは、大きな安心材料です。

• 国や機関から干渉されにくい：匿名であるということは、極端に言えば誰にも利用を知られないということです。たとえば「ローンを借りると住宅ローンの審査に響くかな…」とか「副業の資金調達を会社に知られたくないな…」といった心配も、匿名のP2Pローンなら不要です。借りたお金の使い道も自由ですし、何より利用自体が自分だけの秘密にできるのは、日本人にとって心理的ハードルを下げてくれるでしょう。

このように、ノーKYC（本人確認なし） のP2Pレンディングは、日本のようにプライバシーや控えめさを重んじる文化圏でも利用しやすいサービスと言えます。実際、HodlHodlのLendは「地理的・規制的な制限がなく、世界中の誰もが利用できる純粋なP2P市場」とされています。日本に居ながらグローバルな貸し借りができ、しかも身元明かさずに済む――これは画期的ですね。

Borrow編：HodlHodlのLendでビットコインを担保にお金を借りる方法

それでは具体的に、HodlHodlのLendでどのようにビットコイン担保のローンを借りるのか、手順を追って説明します。初心者でも迷わないよう、シンプルなステップにまとめました。

1. アカウント登録 (Sign up)

まずはHodlHodlのLendサイトにアクセスし、無料のアカウントを作成します。必要なのはメールアドレスとパスワードだけです。登録後、確認メールが届くのでリンクをクリックして認証すれば準備完了。これでプラットフォーム上でオファー（契約希望）を閲覧・作成できるようになります。

※HodlHodlは日本語には対応していませんが、英語のシンプルなUIです。Google翻訳などを使っても良いでしょう。

2. 借りたい条件のオファーを探す or 作成

ログインしたら、「To Borrow（借りる）」のメニューから現在出ている貸し手のオファー一覧を見てみましょう。オファーには借入希望額（例：$1000相当のUSDT）、期間（例：3ヶ月）、金利（例：5%）やLTV（担保価値比率、例：60%）などの条件が書かれています。自分の希望に合うものがあれば選んで詳細画面へ進みます。条件に合うオファーが見つからない場合は、自分で「○○ USDTを△ヶ月、金利○%で借りたい」という借り手オファーを新規作成することも可能です。

用語補足：LTV（ローン・トゥ・バリュー）とはローン額に対する担保価値の割合です。たとえばLTV50%なら、借りたい額の2倍の価値のビットコインを担保に入れる必要があります。LTVは貸し手が設定しており、一般に30%〜70%程度の範囲でオファーが出ています。低いLTVほど借り手は多くのBTC担保が必要ですが、その分だけ貸し手にとって安全なローンとなります。

3. 契約成立とマルチシグ担保のデポジット

借り手・貸し手双方が条件に合意すると契約成立です。HodlHodlプラットフォーム上で自動的に専用のマルチシグ・エスクロー用ビットコインアドレス（担保保管先アドレス）が生成されます。次に、借り手であるあなたは自分のウォレットからビットコインをそのエスクローアドレスに送金します。

• 📌ポイント：マルチシグで安心 – 上述の通り、このエスクロー用アドレスのコインを動かすには3者中2者の署名が必要です。あなた（借り手）は常にそのうちの1つの鍵を保有しています。つまり、自分が承認しない限り担保BTCが勝手に引き出されることはないのでご安心ください。

ビットコインの入金がブロックチェーン上で所定の承認（通常数ブロック程度）を得ると、担保デポジット完了です。これで契約は有効化され、次のステップへ進みます。

4. 貸し手から資金（ステーブルコイン）を受け取る

担保のロックが確認できると、今度は貸し手がローン金額の送金を行います。Lendで借りられるのは主にステーブルコインです。ステーブルコインとは、米ドルなど法定通貨の価値に連動するよう設計された仮想通貨で、USDTやUSDC、DAIといった種類があります。借り手は契約時に受取用のステーブルコインアドレス（自分のウォレットアドレス）を指定しますので、貸し手はそのアドレス宛に契約どおりの額を送金します。例えばUSDTを借りる契約なら、貸し手からあなたのUSDTウォレットにUSDTが送られてきます。

これで晴れて、あなた（借り手）は希望のステーブルコインを手にすることができました！ あなたのビットコインは担保としてロックされていますが、期限までに返済すれば取り戻せますので、しばしのお別れです。借りたステーブルコインは自由に使えますので、後述する活用例を参考に有効活用しましょう。

5. 返済（リペイメント）

契約期間中は基本的に何もする必要はありません（途中で追加担保や一部返済を行うことも可能ですが、初心者向け記事では割愛します）。期間が満了するまでに、借りたステーブルコイン＋利息を貸し手に返済します。返済も、貸し手の指定するウォレットアドレスにステーブルコインを送金する形で行われます。

• 利息の計算：利息は契約時に決めた率で発生します。例えば年利10%で6ヶ月間$1000を借りたなら、利息は単純計算で$50（＝$1000×10%×0.5年）です。契約によっては「期間全体で○%」と定める場合もありますが、プラットフォーム上で年率（APR）換算が表示されます。

期間内であれば任意のタイミングで早期返済することも可能です。返済期限より早く全額返せば、利息もその日数分だけで済みます（※ただし契約によります。事前に契約条件を確認してください）。HodlHodlでは分割返済にも対応しており、例えば月ごとに少しずつ返して最後に完済することもできます。

6. ビットコイン担保の解除（返却）

貸し手があなたからの返済受領を確認すると、プラットフォーム上で契約終了の手続きを行います。マルチシグの担保アドレスからあなたのビットコインを解放（返却）する署名を貸し手とプラットフォームが行い、あなたの元のウォレットにビットコインが送られます。こうして無事に担保のBTCが戻ってくれば、一連のローン取引は完了です🎉。

もし返済が滞った場合はどうなるのでしょうか？その場合、契約で定められた猶予期間やマージンコール（追加担保のお願い）を経た後、担保のビットコインが強制的に貸し手に渡されて契約終了（清算）となります。担保額が未返済額を上回っていれば、差額は借り手に返ってきます。つまり、返せなかったとしても借り手が担保以上の損をすることはありませんが、大切なビットコインを失ってしまう結果にはなるので注意しましょう。

Borrow（借りる）側のまとめ：ビットコインさえあれば、あとの手続きは非常に簡単です。借入までの流れをもう一度簡潔にまとめると：

1. メールアドレスでLendに登録
2. 借入オファーを探すor作成してマッチング
3. マルチシグ契約が自動生成・BTC担保を自分で入金
4. 貸し手からステーブルコインを受領
5. 期限までにステーブルコイン＋利息を返済
6. ビットコイン担保が自分のウォレットに戻る

第三者の仲介なしに、ネット上でこれだけのことが完結するのは驚きですよね。HodlHodlは「あなたの条件、あなたの鍵、あなたのコイン」と銘打っており、自分の望む条件で・自分が鍵を管理し・自分の資産を動かせるプラットフォームであることを強調しています。

Lend編：HodlHodlのプラットフォームでお金を貸してみよう

次は逆に、自分が貸し手（Lender）となってステーブルコインを貸し出し、利息収入を得る方法です。銀行に預けても超低金利のこのご時世、手持ちの資金をうまく運用したい方にとってP2Pレンディングは魅力的な選択肢になりえます。HodlHodlのLendなら、これもまた簡単な手順で始められます。

基本的な流れは先ほどの「Borrow編」と鏡写しになっています。

1. アカウント登録

借り手と同様、まずはHodlHodlに登録します（すでに借り手として登録済みなら同じアカウントで貸し手にもなれます）。メールアドレスだけでOK、もちろん貸し手側もKYC不要です。

2. 貸出オファーの確認 or 作成

ログイン後、「To Lend（貸す）」メニューから現在の借り手募集一覧を見ます。各オファーには希望額・期間・支払い利率・LTVなど条件が表示されています。「この条件なら貸してもいいかな」という案件があれば選択しましょう。もし自分の希望する利回りや期間が合わない場合は、自分で貸し手オファーを作成することも可能です。「○○ USDTまで、最長△ヶ月、最低利息◻◻%で貸せます」といった条件を提示できます。プラットフォーム上ではユーザーがお互いに条件を提示しあってマッチングする仕組みなので、金利や期間もすべてユーザー自身が自由に設定できます。

3. マッチングと契約開始

あなたの提示した条件で借りたい人が現れたら契約成立です（逆に誰かの借入オファーに応じる形なら、その時点で成立）。システムがマルチシグの担保用BTCアドレスを生成し、借り手がそこへビットコインをデポジットします。借り手からのBTC入金が確認できるまで、貸し手であるあなたは資金を送る必要はありません。担保が確保されたのを見届けてから次に進みます。

4. 資金（ステーブルコイン）の送金

借り手の担保ロックが完了したら、契約で定めたステーブルコインを借り手へ送金します。送金先アドレスは契約詳細画面に表示されます（借り手が指定済み）。例えばUSDCを貸す契約なら、相手のUSDCアドレスに約束の額を送ります。ここで送金した金額がローンの principal（元本）となり、後ほど利息とともに返ってくるわけです。

無事に相手に届けば、あとは契約期間終了まで待つだけです。あなたは担保のBTCに対して鍵を1つ持っている状態なので、万一トラブルが起きた場合でも担保を引き出す権利を部分的に持っています（詳しくは次ステップ）。

5. 返済の受領

契約期間が終わると、借り手があなたにステーブルコインを返済してくるはずです。約束どおり元本＋利息を受け取ったら、それを確認してプラットフォーム上で「返済完了」を操作します。すると担保のビットコインがマルチシグから解放され、借り手に返却されます。これで貸し手としてのあなたは利息分の収益を獲得できました。お疲れ様です！

もし借り手が返済しなかった場合どうなるでしょうか？その場合、所定の猶予期間やマージンコール通知の後、担保のビットコインがあなた（貸し手）に渡されることになります。具体的には、LTVが90%に達するか返済期日から24時間以上滞納が続くと強制清算となり、担保BTCからあなたの貸付相当額が充当されます。担保が十分であれば元本と利息はカバーされ、余剰があれば借り手に返還されます。つまり貸し手側はかなり手厚く保護されており、返済を受け取れない場合でも担保で穴埋めされる仕組みです。

6. 収益を管理・再投資

受け取ったステーブルコイン（元本＋利息）は再度プラットフォームで貸し出しても良いですし、他の用途に使ってもOKです。年利に換算するとだいたい10%前後の利回りになる案件が多く見られます。条件次第では更に高い利率の契約も可能ですが、その分借り手が見つかりにくかったりリスク（担保不足のリスク）が高まる可能性もあります。ご自身のリスク許容度に合わせて運用しましょう。

Lend（貸す）側のまとめ：

• HodlHodlに登録（メールアドレスのみ）
• 貸出オファーを提示 or 借り手募集に応じる
• 契約成立後、借り手がBTC担保を入金
• 貸し手（自分）がステーブルコインを送金
• 期限まで待ち、借り手から元本＋利息を受領
• 担保BTCを返却し、利息収入を得る

銀行預金では考えられないような利息収入を得られるのが魅力ですが、その裏でビットコイン価格変動リスクも担っています。大暴落が起きて担保評価額が急落すると、清算時に元本を割るリスクもゼロではありません（LTV設定とマージンコール制度で極力保護されまますが）。リスクとリターンを理解した上で、小額から試すことをおすすめします。

ステーブルコインの活用：お金持ちは借金で生活する？

ここまで、ビットコインを手放さずにステーブルコインを手に入れる方法を見てきました。それでは、借りたステーブルコインは具体的に何に使えるのでしょうか？いくつか例を挙げてみましょう。

• 日常の出費に充当：ビットコイン投資家の中には「生活費はすべて借りたお金で賄い、自分のBTCはガチホ（売らずに長期保有）する」という方針の人もいます。例えば毎月の家賃や食費をステーブルコインのローンで支払い(これについても今後詳しく解説していきます)、ビットコインは一切使わないというイメージです。こうすれば、手持ちのBTCを売らずに済むので将来の値上がり益を逃しません。また日本では仮想通貨を売却すると雑所得として高率の税金がかかりますが、ローンで得たお金は借入金なので課税対象になりません（※将来的な税務計算は自己責任で行ってください）。つまり、ビットコインを売却して現金化する代わりにローンを使うことで、節税と資産温存のメリットが得られる可能性があります。

• 投資・資産運用に回す：借りた資金をさらに別の投資に活用することもできます。例えば有望な株式や不動産に投資したり、あるいは他の仮想通貨を買うこともできます。極端な例では、ビットコインを担保にUSDTを借りて、そのUSDTでまた別の仮想通貨を買い、それを運用益で返済する…といった戦略も理論上は可能です。ただし、借りたお金での投機はハイリスクなので慎重に！手堅い使い道としては、事業資金に充てるのも良いでしょう。例えば小さなオンラインビジネスを始めるための元手にしたり、新しい資格取得のための学費にするなど、自分への投資に使えば将来的なリターンでローンを返しつつ利益を上げることが期待できます。

• 急な支払いへの備え：人生何があるか分かりません。医療費や冠婚葬祭など急に現金が必要になる場面もあります。そんなとき、ビットコインをすぐ売ってしまうのは惜しい…という場合にローンで一時的にしのぐことができます。後で落ち着いてから返済すれば、大事なBTCを手放さずにピンチを乗り切れます。言わばデジタル質屋のような感覚で、ビットコインを預けてお金を工面し、後で買い戻す（返済する）イメージですね。日本でも昔から「質屋」で着物や宝石を預けてお金を借りる文化がありましたが、HodlHodl Lendはビットコイン版の質屋とも言えるでしょう。

• 市場の機会を逃さない：仮想通貨市場は変動が激しく、「今これを買いたいのに現金が無い！」というチャンスもあるでしょう。例えば「ビットコインが急落したから買い増したいが、現金が足りない」という場合、手持ちBTCを担保にしてステーブルコインを借り、その急落で安く買い増しする、といった動きもできます。そして後日価格が戻したところで返済すれば、差益を得つつBTC保有枚数も増やせるかもしれません。このようにローンを戦略的に使えば、市場の好機を掴む資金余力を生み出すことができます。ただしハイリスクな手法でもあるため、上級者向けではあります。

ここで覚えておきたいのは、「お金持ちは借金との付き合い方が上手い」という点です。日本では借金にネガティブな印象を持つ人も多いですが、世界的な資産家や大企業はしばしばあえて借金をして手元資金を他に活用しています。アメリカのベストセラー『金持ち父さん貧乏父さん』で有名なロバート・キヨサキ氏も「富裕層は他人のお金（借金）を利用してさらに富を築く」と強調しています。例えば彼は借金で高級車を買い、不動産投資にも借入を活用したそう (金持ちは貧乏人より借金が多い | 「金持ち父さん 貧乏父さん」日本オフィシャルサイト)❤️。借金を味方につけて資産運用すれば、自分の持ち出し資金を抑えつつ豊かな生活を実現できる可能性があります。

もちろん無計画な借金は禁物ですが、ローンを上手に使うことは決して悪いことではなく、むしろ経済的戦略として有効なのです。ビットコイン担保ローンはその新しい選択肢として、「お金にお金に働いてもらう」感覚を身につけるきっかけになるかもしれません。

高い金利でもローンを利用するのはなぜ？その理由と戦略

Lendのプラットフォームで提示される金利は、年利換算で見ると10〜15%程度が一つの目安 です。中にはそれ以上の利率の契約もあります。日本の銀行ローン（金利数％以下）と比べるとかなり高利に思えますが、それでも多くの人がこのサービスを利用してローンを組んでいます。なぜ高い利息を支払ってまで借りる価値があるのでしょうか？最後に、その理由と利用者の戦略について考えてみましょう。

• (1) ビットコインの期待リターンが高い：借り手にとって一番の動機は、「ビットコインは将来もっと値上がりするはずだから、多少利息を払っても売りたくない」というものです。例えば年利15%で$1000借りると一年後に$1150返す必要がありますが、もしビットコイン価格がその間に15%以上上昇すれば、利息分を差し引いても得をする計算になります。過去のビットコイン相場は年率ベースで大きく成長した年も多く、強気のホルダーほど利息より値上がり益を優先する傾向があります。「金利よりビットコインの価値上昇のほうが大きい」という自信が、高金利を払ってでも借りる動機になっているのです。

• (2) 課税や手数料の回避：先ほど述べたように、日本ではビットコインを売却すると高額の税金が発生する可能性があります。仮に30%〜50%の税金がかかるのであれば、年利10%前後のローンで済ませたほうがトクだという判断も成り立ちます。また、取引所で売却するときのスプレッドや出金手数料なども考えると、売却コストを回避する手段としてローンを選ぶ人もいます。要するに「売るくらいなら借りた方がマシ」という考え方ですね。

• (3) 自由と速さを優先：従来の金融機関からお金を借りるには時間がかかりますし、使途にも制限があることが多いです（事業資金なのか生活費なのか、といった審査があります）。それに対してHodlHodlのP2Pローンは使い道自由・即日資金調達が可能です。利息が高めでも「今すぐ○○がしたい」「明日までに現金が要る」といったニーズには代えられません。特に仮想通貨業界はスピード命ですから、チャンスを逃さないために高コストでも素早く借りるという選択が生まれます。

• (4) 借金＝時間を買うこと：あるユーザーの言葉を借りれば、「借金をすることは未来の時間を先取りすること」でもあります。例えば住宅ローンがあるからこそ若い世代でもマイホームに住めますし、事業ローンがあるからこそ企業は成長の機会を掴めます。ビットコイン担保ローンも同じで、「今はお金が無いけど将来増やすアテはある。だから今借りてしまおう」というケースもあるでしょう。将来の収入や資産増加を見込んで、時間を味方につけるためにあえて借金をするのです。日本語では「借金してでも◯◯する」という表現がありますが、前向きな借金は将来への投資とも言えるでしょう。

• (5) 非中央集権への支持：もう一つ見逃せないのは、HodlHodlのようなプラットフォームを利用する理由に思想的な支持があります。つまり「銀行や政府に頼らないお金の流れを実現したい」「ビットコインのエコシステムを活性化させたい」というビットコイナーたちです。多少コストが高くても、理念に共感して使っているケースもあります。匿名で自由にお金を借りられる世界を体験することで、金融システムの新たな可能性を感じているのです。

以上のように、高い金利にも関わらずローンを利用するのは明確なメリットや戦略があるからなのです。もちろん全ての人に当てはまるわけではありません。ビットコイン価格が下落局面ではリスクも伴いますし、利息分だけ損になる場合もあります。しかし、それらを理解した上で「自分のお金を働かせる」「資産を手放さずレバレッジを利かせる」手段として活用している人々が増えてきています。

最後に、HodlHodlの公式ブログの一文をご紹介します。

“私たちはビットコインこそがスーパーカ collateral（超優秀な担保）であり、利回りを得るために使うのではなく、それを担保に資金を借りるために使われるべきだと考えています" (The lending is dead, long live the lending | by Hodl Hodl | Hodl Hodl | Medium)。

ビットコイン時代の新しいお金の借り方・貸し方であるP2Pローン。最初は難しく感じるかもしれませんが、仕組みを理解すればとてもシンプルで強力なツールです。日本ではまだ馴染みが薄いかもしれませんが、匿名性を好み、コツコツ資産を増やすのが得意な人にこそフィットするサービスかもしれません。ぜひ少額から試し、自分なりの活用法を見つけてみてください。きっと新たな発見があるはずです。

---

もしビットコイン担保のP2Pローンなどについてもっと深く知りたい、あるいは個別に相談してみたいと思えば、どうぞお気軽にご連絡ください。1対1のコンサルティングも承っています。

サービスには決まった料金はありませんが、ご相談を通じて「役に立った」と思い、お悩みや疑問を解決できたと感じていただけたら、「3つのT」でのご支援（Value for Value）をぜひご検討ください：

• 時間（Time）：この記事をSNSなどでシェアしていただくこと。
• 才能（Talent）：コメントや補足情報などを通じて知識を共有していただくこと。
• 宝（Treasure）：世界で最も健全なお金、ビットコインの最小単位「sats」でのご支援。

もちろん、支援の有無にかかわらず、お力になれればとても嬉しいです。 では、また次回！

@ fbe736db:187bb0d5

This article was published in November 2024 by the Bitcoin Collective and is best viewed here for images

Ssssh. Did you hear that? In their recent Q3 2024 earnings call MicroStrategy (NSQ:MSTR) announced plans to buy a further $42 billion worth of Bitcoin over the next 3 calendar years. Here are some reflections on where MicroStrategy has come from, and where they are going.

From the beginning

Let’s rewind as to how we got here. Microstrategy is a business intelligence software company originally founded by Michael Saylor in 1989.

They started acquiring Bitcoin in Q3 2020, firstly via their cash reserves on the balance sheet. This was soon followed by debt issuance (mainly in the form of convertible debt), and has in more recent years been followed by issuing further MSTR equity into the market, alongside yet more convertible debt issuance.

Nearly all the proceeds have gone towards buying bitcoin. As can be seen on the chart below, they have managed to steadily grow these holdings, albeit this growth visibly slowed in the last bear market.

[p13 of Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation. Please note - all screenshots from this article come from the slide deck accompanying the recent MSTR Q3 earnings presentation, which can be viewed by clicking here]

MSTR now holds well over 1% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist. With Bitcoin nearing all time highs again, this Bitcoin is worth around $18.3bn at the time of writing, and has an average purchase cost of around $9.9bn.

This has led to a spectacular share price performance, unmatched in the entire S&P 500 since August 2020.

[p23 of Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation]

It was not always this way. When I wrote this article in July 2022, MSTR was firmly in the red and sitting on unrealised bitcoin losses of $1.4bn. A search for Michael Saylor on Twitter back then auto-completed to “Michael Saylor liquidated”.

Rumours of imminent demise were always unfounded since the debt was of long enough term, and with the exception of a small proportion, could not be margin called.

A developing strategy

What’s interesting about MicroStrategy since then is their developing vision as to how to add Bitcoin to their balance sheet and more value to shareholders. This is especially in terms of outperforming BTC and achieving what they define as a “positive BTC yield” – not yield in a conventional sense but a measure of increasing the number of bitcoin held per assumed diluted shares outstanding.

The concept of MSTR outperforming bitcoin is interesting to me, as I’ve previously suggested attempting to value MSTR stock as priced in bitcoin rather than dollars. This then begs the question of whether an investment of bitcoin into MSTR shares will positively perform in bitcoin terms over time.

This valuation is very difficult by its nature, but can broadly be done by adding the bitcoin they currently hold on their balance sheet with an estimate of all the bitcoin they may ever acquire in the future, plus an allowance for other factors such as debt.

The landscape has shifted over this period, with Michael Saylor admitting that their strategy has evolved over time. The vital point that I missed when considering how MSTR might acquire more bitcoin in the future was their ability to issue considerable amounts of new equity into the market and achieve two things in doing so:

i) increasing bitcoin held per share of existing shareholders

ii) strengthen their balance sheet to take on more debt (since further debt issued would be a smaller proportion of their overall balance sheet).

“But where does the (btc) yield come from?”

This is not yield in the conventional sense, but nor is it Terra Luna. Firstly, this could come from profits from the business, which are relatively small. More relevantly, let’s consider how both the capital raises from debt and equity have served to increase the bitcoin held per share.

1. Equity “at the money” offerings

Much has been made of MSTR’s market cap (i.e. the overall value of the shares) trading above “Net Asset Value” (NAV) – which is essentially the value of their current bitcoin holdings plus the value of the conventional business, less debt. A multiple approach is used to describe how far above or below NAV this might be.

At the time of writing, the MSTR market cap stands at around $50bn and the value of their bitcoin holdings at $18bn. Given the conventional MSTR business is relatively small, it’s easy to see how this is approaching a multiple of 3x NAV.

If the share price is $240 and the net asset value is only $80 per share, MSTR can then issue more equity at $240, buy more bitcoin with this, and by doing so increase the bitcoin per share of existing shareholders. What’s more, they can keep doing this as long as the share price remains high. As shown above, MSTR has coined the term “BTC yield” to measure how well they are performing at increasing bitcoin held per share.

2. Convertible Debt

This also generally serves to increase bitcoin held per share. To consider how, let’s consider one of the previous convertible debt offerings – those due in 2028 – works in practice

Amount borrowed – $1,010m

Annual interest rate payable – 0.625%

Conversion price – $183.2

As can see MSTR pays a very low interest rate, as most of the value of the bond is in the potential convertibility to MSTR equity at a price of $183.2. Ultimately there is a binary situation here – either the share price is above that level and they end up issuing more equity at that price, or it’s below, and they end up having simply borrowed money at a very low interest rate.

The crucial point is that the convertible bond conversion price is typically set at a premium of at least 30% to the current market share price, whilst MSTR are buying bitcoin at the outset with the bond proceeds.

Hence if all of this debt converts to equity (and all debt looks like it will at present – see slide below), they are typically managing to increase the BTC held per share for existing shareholders.

This is because in this example when the bonds are converted to shares at $183.2, this is done at a premium to the prior share price (let’s say for illustration it was $140) at which MSTR initially issued the debt and converted the borrowing proceeds to bitcoin.

[p16 of Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation]

It is these combined activities that have led to an impressive bitcoin yield of 17.8% for the year to date 2024, and leads to questions for how long this financial alchemy can continue. Some bitcoiners, such as the Quant Bros duo and True North* group (see both here) have spoken of a flywheel effect – the more Bitcoin MSTR can acquire and the higher the bitcoin per share metric goes, the higher the share price, which in turn increases their ability to issue yet more equity and debt to buy more bitcoin and further increase bitcoin per share.

*Side note – Michael Saylor used the phrase “True North” on the Earnings Call; likely not accidental.

One answer to how long this can continue is – as long as the equity and debt markets still show an appetite for snapping up the new debt and equity issuance, even if the share price is high. Michael Saylor characterises it as the beginning of the adoption of Bitcoin as digital capital for these markets, and MSTR constitutes the easiest exposure. They have established a monopoly of sorts – whilst it would feasibly be possible for a large company to catch them in Bitcoin held, it would still have a smaller proportion of its business exposed to Bitcoin than MSTR.

[p21 of Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation]

Volatility is vitality

Michael Saylor is very clear in this earnings call and other interviews that MicroStrategy’s share volatility is a feature and not a bug. It is more volatile than any other S&P stock. As can be seen below, the recent daily trading volume only trails to the very biggest companies in the S&P 500.

Saylor embraces this volatility. It is what gives the optionality component of their convertible debt its value, and allows the interest rate payable to be lower. In addition, when the share price is high MSTR can issue more equity and increase bitcoin per share.

The Earnings presentation makes reference to several different forms of Bitcoin exposure that MSTR can offer to the market now and in the future.

[p27 of Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation]

The MSTR “True North” Principles

The Q3 Earnings call saw the following principles outlined for the first time. The message is clear to the market – do not conflate the dollar volatility of MSTR’s share price with the nature of their Bitcoin principles, which (perhaps analogous to the Bitcoin protocol itself) are intended to be rock solid and consistent. In addition, Saylor cleared up one source of speculation – MSTR will not be seeking to purchase other companies to add to its potential for generating free cash flows to invest into Bitcoin.

[p34 of Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation]

Can’t stop, won’t stop

The Earnings call contained an ambitious plan to raise $42bn more capital over the next 3 calendar years. This would be $21bn worth of equity, by selling new shares into the market (known as an “at the money” equity option), and $21bn worth of fixed income debt. This was split as $10bn in 2025, $14bn in 2026 and $18bn in 2027.

There is no doubting the scale of this ambition – to date MSTR have issued in total around $4.3bn in convertible debt and $4.3bn in terms of issued equity.

One key point is clear in line with the principles listed above. Whilst Saylor wants to raise Capital at opportune times to best benefit shareholders in the long term and to achieve what he terms “intelligent leverage”, he doesn’t try and time his bitcoin buys.

Moreover, he is likely also not bothered that selling so much further equity into the market may not always benefit the share price in the short term.

[p33 of Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation]

Turning up the volume, but is anyone listening?

With this announcement of $42bn to come over the next 3 years, there is no end in sight with respect to MSTR’s thirst for further Bitcoin purchases.

And yet, there was little in the media around the announcement, and despite the share price performance topping the entire S&P 500 over the past 4 years, MicroStrategy sits nowhere on Google Trends in comparison to Bitcoin:

[Source: https://trends.google.co.uk/trends/explore?q=bitcoin,microstrategy&hl=en-GB]

For now, this is no Gamestop. There’s no huge amount of short interest, and the fabled retail crowds are nowhere to be seen. One thing’s for sure though. Buckle up.

Please get in touch with your thoughts and feedback.

@ 2b24a1fa:17750f64

Eine Stunde Klassik! Der Münchner Pianist und "Musikdurchdringer" Jürgen Plich stellt jeden Dienstag um 20 Uhr große klassische Musik vor. Er teilt seine Hör- und Spielerfahrung und seine persönliche Sicht auf die Meisterwerke. Er spielt selbst besondere, unbekannte Aufnahmen, erklärt, warum die Musik so und nicht anders klingt und hat eine Menge aus dem Leben der Komponisten zu erzählen.

https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/eine-stunde-klassik-opus-eins?

Sonntags um 10 Uhr in der Wiederholung.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Welcome to part 4, the final entry in the What is Money series. We’re capping it off with “crypto” and CBDCs.

Let's start with crypto. Short for cryptocurrency, it’s a catch-all term for all of the non-fiat, blockchain-based, or non-government-operated new money systems that aren’t Bitcoin. Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin are some you may have heard of. There are actually thousands of cryptocurrencies in existence, but we’ll summarize some of the biggest ones by size and pop culture penetration. One thing they all have in common is that like fiat currencies, they have no supply limit and are therefore inflationary by nature.

Ethereum: Released in 2015 by Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum is less of a money system and more of a network built to run “decentralized applications” (DAPs) on. “Smart contracts” and “tokens” are the most common of these. If none of those terms mean anything to you, you’re not alone. What they’ve essentially done is recreate the unending complexity of high finance in a computer system and replaced the bankers and lawyers with programmers.

Solana: Solana is much smaller than Ethereum but serves a similar function of being a wild-west finance platform. I’m only mentioning it here as it's been in the media a lot with numerous security compromises, lawsuits, and general drama. Your nephew who trades in Robux probably knows someone who lost their allowance savings in the 2021 crash.

USDT/Tether: This is the largest in a family of cryptocurrencies called “stablecoins”. They’re meant to offer the features of crypto but with the “stability” of having their value tied to a fiat currency, in this case the US Dollar.

Monero: Monero was designed from the ground up to be as anonymous as possible. Unfortunately it’s lack of popularity means it’s not particularly useful for purchases.

Dogecoin: Released in 2013, Dogecoin was created as a joke to poke fun at Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. As a joke it’s been wildly successful, but like most jokes there are many who decided to take it seriously over the years, which has driven its market cap to surpass that of Monera and most others. It’s currently in the top 10 by market cap, but you’ll struggle to find anyone who takes it as payment.

The concept of CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) has been making the rounds through media for some time. Some paint it as a boogeyman to be feared, while others see it as nothing more than an annoying waste of government resources. As you may recall from part 2 of this series, the Bank of Canada is not a retail bank with individuals for customers, instead acting as an administrative body and a bank for banks. CBDCs have the potential to change that. In a sentence, a Canadian CBDC would most likely be a system whereby individuals who struggle to get or maintain accounts at retail banks could be issued a Bank of Canada account. There may also be some integration with Payments Canada systems to make retail payments and transfers cheaper and more direct. Much of this is speculation though, as the BoC hasn’t announced any of this, only that research is ongoing. In any case it won’t be a replacement of the Canadian Dollar, just another system for moving Dollars around between ledgers and accounts.

I’d normally sign off with something like, “Want help with insert article topic here? You can find us at scalebright.ca”, but in the case of crypto I’m afraid we must decline. The other trait shared by all of these money systems beside inflation via no supply limit is that they’re all scams designed to steal from their customers. Bitcoin is the only digital non-fiat currency this doesn't apply to. So if you’d like help with Bitcoin, you can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Millennials remember the era of Buzzfeed quizzes with fondness, and some may even describe it as identity or culture shaping. People have always loved these miniature personality tests, and while Buzzfeed may no longer be in its heyday, the popularity of these dinner-table icebreakers has transcended generational gaps. To the analytically-brained among us this sounds like a datapoint that could be used in the workplace. Or is it?

You’ve probably heard someone’s answer to one of these and thought, “Oh wow, that sounds mildly psychopathic, I’m sure glad I don’t work with them!” Interviewers will sometimes ask questions like “if you were an animal, what kind of animal would you be?” as a conversation starter, but unscored. Part of the reason for this is that laws around discrimination in hiring make filtering via psychological or personality tests a grey area. Any suggestion of discrimination opens employers to potential lawsuits and investigations. Even if the applicant answered unironically with “I would be a dragon because I love hoarding gold and burning down unsuspecting villages!”, you would need to prove that the question was asked in a controlled environment by a certified professional and that the question was directly relevant to the position being applied for.

Now that I’ve most likely talked you out of implementing these in your interview processes, here are a handful of tests that, in an HR and legal department approved manner, could be run during an interview. Failing that, they make for great casual icebreakers! Their sources range from actual psychological tests to dubious corners of the internet, and they’ve all been simplified down to their simplest forms, so I’ll again warn that you’ll want to do diligence before suggesting their use in your workplace.

The Marshmallow Test: The test subjects (usually children) are offered a marshmallow and told that if they leave it for a few minutes, they can have two. Adults who’ve developed impulse control will usually say the correct answer is obvious, yet we fail slightly more complex versions all the time. Remember that greasy fast-food you bought with money you could have saved for a nice dinner out?

Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT): “Some apples and some bananas cost $1.10. The apples cost $1 more than the bananas. How much did the apples cost?” If you suspect a trick, you’ll probably think about the question a bit further, but the intuitive part of our brains want us to think the apples were $1 and the bananas $0.10.

The Breakfast Question: “How would you feel if you hadn’t eaten breakfast?” This one has some deep internet lore behind it, but the idea is that you’re testing the subject’s capacity for hypothetical reasoning. Can they process “what-ifs”? It can also extend into testing for empathy (“How would you feel if you were in Steve’s shoes and someone stole your ice cream?”).

Thematic Apperception Test (TAT): Show the subject an ambiguous picture (ideally emotionally neutral) with people in it and ask them to imagine what is happening, including what the people are thinking and feeling. Most people will subconsciously project their own thoughts and feelings onto the characters in the picture.

Moral Circle Test: This one has a history of being misunderstood and used as a political cudgel, so you may want to save it for your more understanding friends. Subjects were asked to rank the moral responsibilities they felt toward increasingly distant groups, starting from themselves in the center of a circle and working their way out through family, friends, acquaintances, animals, Earth, etc. The primary misunderstanding is whether the outer circles include the inner circles, i.e. whether caring for Earth includes caring for family. It’s unclear whether the subjects fully understood this, and those interpreting the results seem confused as well.

Workplace Motivation Test: “You are up for a promotion. You can be promoted into a position that pays 20% more, or one that pays the same that you’re currently making but aligns with your non-financial life goals or sense of purpose.” This one is my own, and you can learn more about the underlying concepts here: “True Believers & Mercenaries” Are you a “True Believer” or a “Mercenary”?

Need help with your interview processes or figuring out which Disney princess you are? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17

Descrição da empresa

Fundada em 1961, a WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, atuando principalmente no setor de bens de capital com soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação e tintas, para diversos setores, incluindo infraestrutura, siderurgia, papel e celulose, petróleo e gás, mineração, entre muitos outros.

A WEG se destaca em inovação pelo desenvolvimento constante de soluções para atender as grandes tendências voltadas a eficiência energética, energias renováveis e mobilidade elétrica. Com operações industriais em 17 países e presença comercial em mais de 135 países, a companhia possui mais de 47.000 mil colaboradores distribuídos pelo mundo.

Em 2024, a WEG atingiu faturamento líquido de R$38,0 bilhões, destes 57,0% proveniente das vendas realizadas fora do Brasil.

acao wege3

Vendendo soluções para os clientes

"Na febre do ouro, muito garimpeiros corriam atrás de ouro para ficar ricos. Enquanto isso, muita gente enriqueceu vendendo pás, roupas, bebidas, cigarros e mantimentos para eles…”

Em um mundo dominado cada vez mais por Inteligência Artificial, carros elétricos e tecnologias quânticas. A Wege segue se destacando por oferecer equipamentos e parte da estrutura pode detrás para que essas tecnologias possam existir. Focada em inovação e performance. A empresa oferece soluções de ponta a ponta para os mais variados setores da indústria.

Visão geral da empresa

A Wege atua no setor de máquinas e equipamentos. Se formos fazer um refino, podemos dizer que ela atua em subsetores tais como: motores, compressores e outros.

Mercado que atua

O setor de máquinas e equipamentos no Brasil em 2024 enfrentou um cenário desafiador, com uma queda na receita líquida, mas também mostrou sinais de recuperação e algumas perspectivas positivas em segmentos específicos e no início de 2025.

A WEG é gigante no mundo todo. Os caras têm fábricas e filiais em mais de 40 países, espalhados por todos os continentes. A estratégia dos caras é expandir sempre, comprando outras empresas e investindo pesado em mercados-chave. A empresa foca em: Expansão, inovação e sustentabilidade.

Mercado

Grana Alta: Em 2024, o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos valeu uns US$ 205,67 bilhões. Já a parte de motores elétricos, chegou a uns US$ 152,2 bilhões. A parada é que a automação industrial, que é a cara do futuro, estava em uns US$ 192,02 bilhões em 2024. É muita grana rolando!

As empresas estão investindo cada vez mais em IA (Inteligência artificial), IOT (internet das coisas, robótica e fabricação sustentável.

Perspectiva de crescimento A parada é que esse mercado tá com gás total pra crescer nos próximos anos, parceiro:

Máquinas e Equipamentos: A expectativa é que o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos cresça cerca de 6,57% ao ano até 2033, podendo chegar a uns US$ 364,66 bilhões.

Motores Elétricos: Esse setor tá prometendo um crescimento de uns 6,3% ao ano até 2029, podendo bater uns US$ 206,4 bilhões. A demanda por carros elétricos tá puxando muito esse crescimento.

Automação Industrial: Essa é a cereja do bolo! A expectativa é que o mercado de automação industrial dispare uns 9,1% ao ano até 2033, alcançando uns US$ 420,49 bilhões. A busca por mais produtividade, menos erros e mais eficiência tá impulsionando essa onda.

Materia sobre carros eletricos

Oportunidades que o ativo traz

Na minha visão, as maiores oportunidades que a Wege nos traz são:

1. Equipamentos Eletroeletrônicos Industriais

   Esta área inclui os motores elétricos, drives e equipamentos e serviços de automação industrial e serviços de manutenção. Os motores elétricos e demais equipamentos têm aplicação em praticamente todos os segmentos industriais, em equipamentos como compressores, bombas e ventiladores.

2. Geração Transmissão e Distribuição de Energia (GTD)

   Os produtos e serviços incluídos nesta área são os geradores elétricos para usinas hidráulicas e térmicas (biomassa), turbinas hidráulicas (PCH e CGH), aerogeradores, transformadores, subestações, painéis de controle e serviços de integração de sistemas.

3. Motores Comerciais e Appliance

   O foco de atuação nesta área é o mercado de motores monofásicos para bens de consumo durável, como lavadoras de roupas, aparelhos de ar condicionado, bombas de água, entre outros.

cotacao wege3

Desde Janeiro/25, podemos observar que o gráfico teve uma queda no seu preço. Contudo, continua se mantendo acima da ema200 e com ótimo volume negociado. Isso tudo caracteriza que a tendência majoritária ainda é compradora. Então, devemos pensar em atuar somente nesse sentido.

Riscos

Os maiores riscos que vejo hoje, para uma empresa tão sólida como Wege são:

1. Instabilidade Econômica Global e Regional, qualquer flutuação em mercado chave atuante pode representar um risco.
2. Inflação e Custo de Insumos, principalmente aço e cobre que são matérias prima base.
3. Políticas Tarifárias e Protecionismo, se o homem laranja dos EUA impor tarifas. Pode afetar sim os negócios da empresa como um todo.

trump

Catalisadores

Na minha visão, os catalisadores da empresa. Que impulsionam e continuaram dando força a ela são:

distribuicao receita

• Forte diversificação de receita, 53% vem em dólar.
• Boa perspectiva do aumento do valor do dólar. Isso representa mais caixa.
• As aquisiçõess feitas recentemente, que vão impulsionar a receita da empresa.

aquisicao wege

Faq

Qual foi o desempenho da WEGE3 nas últimas 52 semanas?

13.95% foi desempenho das ações da WEGE3 até o momento.

WEGE3 paga dividendos? Qual o Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3?

Sim, WEGE3 (WEG) paga dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio (JCP). O Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3 tem variado ao longo do tempo, mas geralmente se encontra entre 1,4% e 1,8%, dependendo da cotação atual das ações e dos valores de dividendos e JCP distribuídos.

O que é a WEG? Qual o setor de atuação da WEG?

A WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, que atua principalmente no setor de bens de capital. A empresa se destaca por suas soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação, tintas e sistemas de energia, com foco em eficiência energética e sustentabilidade.

Quais produtos a WEG fabrica?

A WEG produz uma vasta gama de produtos e soluções, abrangendo desde equipamentos elétricos e eletrônicos até tintas e vernizes.

Qual é o P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3?

O P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3, conforme indicadores de mercado, está em torno de 29,32.

Bio

Investir não precisa ser um bicho de sete cabeças! Na Threedolar, democratizamos o acesso ao mundo dos investimentos, oferecendo conteúdo claro e prático. Comece hoje mesmo a construir seu futuro financeiro!

Disclaimer

Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!

Referencia

https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/50c1bd3e-8ac6-42d9-884f-b9d69f690602/161a9930-5b12-3b03-758b-3b6d2b725211?origin=1

https://www.fundamentus.com.br/detalhes.php?papel=WEGE3&h=1

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/perfil-corporativo/

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/por-que-a-weg/

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/auto/carros-eletrificados-registram-85-de-aumento-nas-vendas-de-2024/

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

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Curabitur vulputate velit elit, sit amet euismod nibh venenatis et

@ 41fa852b:af7b7706

> "Only he who attempts the absurd is capable of achieving the impossible."—Miguel de Unamuno

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It’s a busy week with the Bitcoin Ireland conference and Pizza Day celebrations in Thames Ditton and Bristol.

Support your local Bitcoin communities by attending as many of this week’s meetups and events as possible.

Let’s Go!

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Upcoming Bitcoin Meetups

Happening this week…

1. Lincolnshire Bitcoin: Lincolnshire Bitcoin meets on the second Monday of each month at 7:30 PM in the Treaty of Commerce, Lincoln. Open to all, from OG’s to newcomers. This month on the 19th. 🍺

2. Bitcoin Surrey: This months Surrey meetup features special guest Freddie New, co-founder of Bitcoin Policy UK at The Bourne Club, 12 Frensham Rd GU9 8HB 18:00 with the talk starting at 19:00. 🍺🎤

3. Newcastle upon Tyne Bitcoin Meetup: The next Newcastle meetup is on Tuesday 20th May at Kabin @ Kabannas NE1 6UQ. 6:30 PM. 🍺

4. Bitcoin Glasgow: Bitcoin Glasgow meet every 3rd Wednesday of the month and this month will be at The Maltman, 59–61 Renfield Street at 18:00 to 20:00. 🍻

5. Bitcoinology @ Cyphermunk House: This will be primarily a social event. Attendees are encouraged to bring their burning questions to address as many as possible. Everyone is welcome, whether to share knowledge as an expert or to learn as a student. Bitcoinology will provide structure to ensure a shared learning experience that’s both engaging and enjoyable. 👨🏻‍🏫👨🏼‍🎓

6. Shropshire Bitcoin: On the 21st, the Shropshire crew will be meeting at the Admiral Benbow in Shrewsbury. 19:00 - 23:00. 🍺

7. Bitcoin Pizza Day at Thames Ditton: Celebrate Bitcoin Pizza Day with the Surrey Bitcoiners on May 22nd, 2025, in Thames Ditton, where local venues will be accepting Bitcoin for food and drinks in honour of the first real-world Bitcoin transaction. Just 20 minutes from London Waterloo, it’s the perfect chance to enjoy a slice, connect with fellow Bitcoiners, and support businesses embracing sound money. 🍕

8. Bitcoin Bristol - Pizza Day: If Thames Ditton is a bit too far, don’t worry. Bristol will also be celebrating Bitcoin Pizza Day in style on Thursday, May 22nd at 18:15 at Stable Pizza, Harbourside. This informal gathering offers a relaxed setting to chat over drinks in a lively public bar with no table reservations—just drop by. It’s a great chance to discuss Bitcoin news, ideas, and developments while meeting others in the local scene. Everyone is welcome, from curious newcomers to seasoned OGs, and all questions are encouraged. For help finding the group on the night, join the Telegram chat at t.me/BitcoinBristol. 🍕

9. The Satoshi Society - Southampton: Join a friendly group of bitcoiners at The Maritimo Lounge, Ocean Village on Friday 23rd May for food and a Bitcoin chat at 18:00. 🍺 🍴

10. Into The Valueverse: The first UK live music event, built on top of Bitcoin. Into the Valueverse is a celebration of artists brought together through Bitcoin. Performing live are Longy, a raw and rebellious voice from Southend blending rock, folk, and punk; Joe Martin, a heartfelt singer-songwriter inspired by folk and Americana greats; and Nathan Abbot, an Essex-based artist known for his soulful voice and powerful storytelling. The event takes place at The Fickle Pickle Club, 228 London Road, Westcliff-on-Sea, on Friday 23rd May, 2025. Doors open at 19:30, show starts at 20:00, and it’s for ages 18 and over. 🎶🎸🎤

11. Bitcoin Ireland Conference: Set to take place on Saturday, May 24, at The Green Isle Hotel in Dublin. This community-driven event aims to connect Irish Bitcoin enthusiasts, promote Bitcoin-friendly businesses, and educate the public about the potential of Bitcoin. Attendees can expect a day filled with insightful talks, networking opportunities, and discussions on various aspects of Bitcoin, including its impact on finance, energy, and society. The conference will feature a diverse lineup of speakers, including Daniel Prince, Knut Svanholm, Francis Pouliot, and British HODL, among others. Whether you’re a seasoned Bitcoiner or just curious about the technology, the Bitcoin Ireland Conference offers a platform to learn, share, and engage with the growing Bitcoin community in Ireland. 🎤🫂

12. Bitcoin Walk - Edinburgh: Every Saturday they walk around Arthur’s Seat in this historic city. Join them at 12 pm to chat about all things Bitcoin and keep fit. 🚶🏽‍♂️🚶🏼‍♀️🚶🏻

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New Businesses Accepting Bitcoin

This week we have…

• McCann Bespoke Tailors: Founded by Neil McCann in 2002, has grown from a South London garage into a leading name in British tailoring. Known for its craftsmanship and high-profile partnerships–from the Savoy Hotel to Premier League clubs–the brand now operates a flagship store on Lime Street with a private bar and dedicated consultation space. McCann Bespoke is now accepting Bitcoin. 👔

• Moradok Siam in Romsey: Bun is a specialist in deep tissue massage, known for helping those suffering from persistent muscular aches and pains; particularly in the back, shoulders, and neck. Drawing on years of experience, she works with precision to identify problem areas and applies targeted techniques to relieve tension and restore movement. Her treatments aren’t for the faint-hearted, but they offer real results. Many clients are referred by local doctors after conventional treatments like injections and medication have failed. For lasting relief, regular appointments are strongly recommended. 💆🏻‍♂️

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Upcoming Special Events

These events aren’t happening next week, but they’re important to add to your calendar now as tickets are selling fast.

Bloom Festival 2025: Takes place 31 May – 1 June at Cypher Munk House, London. This open-source celebration brings together developers, artists, and tinkerers to explore tech, culture, and Bitcoin.

🎤 Talks & Panels

Topics include:

• Open-source innovation

• The Bitcoin whitepaper

• Decentralized publishing

• Bitcoin in UK education

🛠️ Workshops

Get hands-on with:

• Off-grid mesh networks

• DIY Bitcoin signing devices

• Censorship-resistant publishing

• Creative coding with open tools

🎨 Creative & Cultural

• Collaborative art & music

• Acoustic performances

• Bitcoin-inspired exhibitions

🛍️ The Souk

• Open-source hardware

• Seed storage gear

• Prints and handmade goods

Children of Riddim Festival - Bitcoin Stage: This is shaping up to be one of the biggest music festivals with Bitcoin vibes in the world.

Around 150 DJs, artists, and speakers will perform over four days, from 12–16 June, in Hemel Hempstead. A dedicated stage, the Barn of Freedom, will spotlight Bitcoin culture, education, and unstoppable apps on the Nostr protocol–alongside music, talks, and much more.

Support for the Barn of Freedom stage can be given via geyser.fund, where both ticket purchases and donations are welcome. One-day and four-day passes are available, and on-site camping is included.

Confirmed names include Joe Bryan, Metamick (Geyser Fund), Roger9000, Angor, MadMunky, Huxley, and many more.

The Bitcoin Beach Retreat: An annual Bitcoin-only gathering held at a scenic coastal campsite in North Wales. Celebrating its fifth year in 2025, the retreat offers a relaxed, community-driven alternative to traditional conferences. From July 11–14, up to 120 Bitcoiners will come together to share knowledge, enjoy beachside BBQs, and strengthen their networks under the stars. With no pre-booked speakers, the event thrives on peer-led workshops and spontaneous discussions, fostering genuine connections among attendees. Emphasising local engagement, the retreat directs the majority of its funds into the surrounding community, with 42% of expenses paid in Bitcoin last year. Whether attending solo or with family, attendees can expect a welcoming environment dedicated to sound money and shared values.

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Get Involved

• Volunteer: Passionate about merchant adoption? Reach out to Bridge2Bitcoin on Twitter or website.

• Start a Meetup: Want to launch a Bitcoin meetup? We’ll support you. Contact us on Twitter or just reply to this email.

• Contribute to BTCMaps: Help maintain this key Bitcoin resource—no coding skills needed. Update a UK area.

• Telegram: Join our Channel for UK meetup updates

• Feedback: Reply to this email with ideas and suggestions.

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This week’s sponsors is…

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Get out and support the meetups where you can, visit Bitcoin Events UK for more info on each meetup and to find your closest on the interactive map.

Stay tuned for more updates next week!

Simon.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Welcome to part 3 of the “What is Money?” series! So far we’ve covered the base concepts of money and money as a system in part 1, and the Canadian Dollar in part 2. Today we’re going to talk about a relatively new system of money, Bitcoin!

Let’s review a few key details about money and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Money is a placeholder to make trading easier, so anything that can fulfill the 3 functions of money can do the job (store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account). During the Italian Renaissance the double-entry bookkeeping (or double-entry ledger) system was codified as a method of tracking transactions, and this system is still in use today for CAD and most other money systems. One of the features of using a ledger instead of physical money with intrinsic value (such as precious metals) is that it allows for fiat (money by decree) that isn’t backed by anything. The CAD is a fully fiat money with no reserve requirements. It’s also mostly digital, with only 7% of the total supply being cash and liquid deposits with the Bank of Canada.

Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto, a pseudonymous individual or group who no one knows the real identity of. They released the Bitcoin whitepaper (which can be read here: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf) in October of 2008, and on January 3, 2009 they started the Bitcoin system. 2 years later they decided to disappear and were never heard from again. Others were involved in early development and maintenance, including Laszlo Hanyecz, who completed the first real-world purchase using Bitcoin. He paid 10,000 bitcoin for 2 pizzas on May 22, 2010, which is now unofficially celebrated as “Bitcoin Pizza Day”. There are several websites and pages dedicated to the story and tracking the current “value” of those pizzas; one can be found here: https://bitcoinpizzaindex.net

Fun history nuggets aside, Bitcoin is similar to CAD in that it uses the same double-entry ledger concept. The difference is that Bitcoin uses a single digital ledger across the entire network. Transactions are grouped into 10-minute blocks and chained together, which is where the popular term “blockchain” comes from. Another term you’ve probably heard, “mining”, is all of the computers dedicated to the task competing with each other in a combination math and guessing game for who gets to verify the authenticity and correctness of each block (the combined computational power from all of the competing computers is used, not just the winner), and the winner is rewarded with newly generated bitcoin and the transaction fees from the included transactions. This is what keeps the ledger secure and makes it practically impossible to fake, break, steal, or cheat on Bitcoin transactions. Last piece of technical background, I promise: If Bitcoin is just a ledger, how do you actually “hold” the money? You do so by holding something called a “private key”. This key is used to authorize new transactions (spending the money). Think of the private key as similar to a password, PIN, or secret code for a bank account. In Bitcoin, if you hold the keys, you hold the coins.

That was a lot of history and technical stuff; take a break, touch some grass, pet the dog, sip some coffee, and come back in a few minutes.

Since you have an understanding of how money systems and CAD works I won’t bother re-explaining it all for Bitcoin; I’ll instead hit some of the major differences between it and CAD (and most other fiat currencies). Bitcoin doesn’t have a central bank or any other central authority governing or controlling it. The ledger is the “single source of truth” and anyone with a valid private key and internet connection cannot be stopped from creating a new transaction. The ledger is also fully public; you can download a full copy and view it, or use a handy website. There are several; here’s the “Bitcoin Pizza” transaction on one of my favourite public sites, mempool.space: https://mempool.space/tx/a1075db55d416d3ca199f55b6084e2115b9345e16c5cf302fc80e9d5fbf5d48d

There’s also a hard limit to the number of Bitcoin that can exist, so there’s no inflation. 21 million bitcoin, which can be divided down into 2.1 quadrillion “satoshis”, or “sats”. Think of sats as similar to the CAD penny, the smallest unit of measurement.

Bitcoin is what I call a “push” system, which is opposite of CAD’s mostly “pull” system. When you do a debit, credit card, or cheque transaction, you’re authorizing the receiving bank to reach in and “pull” the money from your account. Credit cards especially rely on this; it’s how recurring subscriptions where you are charged automatically work. Central authorities also have the ability to pull from your accounts, such as banks for fees and the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) for taxes (though the latter pinky-promise to only do this in emergency situations). With cash, you can’t authorize someone to physically reach into your pocket and take some of your money, and it's the same with Bitcoin. You have to “push” the money to the other person. This is one of the reasons Bitcoin has been referred to as “digital cash”.

Lastly, you may have heard some, including myself, talk about Bitcoin as a replacement for fiat currencies. How is it supposed to do that if we’re required by law to use CAD? My opinion is that we’ll most likely use both for several reasons, but let’s address CAD’s requirement of use. There are no Canadian laws that force the acceptance of CAD, including cash, for purchases. In Canada cash is “legal tender”, which is “the money approved in a country for paying debts.” (See the Bank of Canada page explaining this here: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/banknotes/about-legal-tender/) If there’s no debt being settled, there is no requirement to accept CAD in cash or digital form (i.e. debit or credit card). If there is debt (i.e. paying a bill for a product or service you already received) only cash (as legal tender) is required to be accepted, but payees are not required to use it. There is a bit of an exception to CAD’s non-requirement of use though; all “business” transactions (including barter and Bitcoin) are potentially taxable and therefore are required to be reported at Fair Market Value, denominated in CAD, to the CRA. See the CRA interpretation bulletin here: https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/forms-publications/publications/it490/archived-barter-transactions.html Taxes are required to be paid in CAD as well.

If you’d like to see how Bitcoin works in the real world, I’d be happy to show you. I’ll even gift you a few sats to practice with! You can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 86dfbe73:628cef55

Robustheit ist die Eigenschaft eines Systems, auch unter schwierigen Bedingungen funktionieren zu können: trotz Störungen und einer gewissen Verschlechterung seiner internen Prozesse. Das Leben als Ganzes ist robust. Dasselbe gilt für Ökosysteme: Sie können den Verlust einiger Arten überstehen und sich an veränderte Umweltbedingungen anpassen.

Der Hauptfeind der Robustheit ist das Streben nach Effizienz. Ein auf Effizienz optimiertes System hat keine Reserven mehr, sich an Störungen anzupassen. Es wird fragil. Wir optimieren die Gesellschaft und ihre Subsysteme (z. B. Institutionen) seit 5000 Jahren auf Wachstum, Effizienz und Produktivität. Und wir haben das Optimierungstempo mit den beiden Turbo-Boosts fossile Brennstoffe und Informationstechnologie beschleunigt. Deshalb ist alles um uns herum fragil geworden. Beispielsweise kann ein Virusausbruch in China sich zu einer Pandemie entwickeln, weil die Menschen weit und schnell reisen können und müssen.

Robustheit ist nicht absolut und dauerhaft. Ein System kann durch Störungen, die zu gravierend für es sind, fragil werden. Ehemals robuste Ökosysteme wie Regenwälder wurden durch menschliche Ausbeutung fragil. Deregulierung hat sowohl Regierungen als auch die Wirtschaft effizienter gemacht, allerdings zum Preis zunehmender Fragilität. Unternehmen sind mächtiger geworden als viele Staaten, was bedeutet, dass demokratisch gewählte Parlamente und Regierungen nicht mehr die Kontrolle haben. Heute kann eine einzelne Person demokratische Wahlen weltweit manipulieren, indem sie ein soziales Netzwerk kontrolliert. Das ist Fragilität pur.

Wir müssen als Gesellschaft die Effizienz in den Hintergrund rücken und uns mehr auf Robustheit konzentrieren.

@ 58537364:705b4b85

มีคำหนึ่งในพุทธศาสนาที่เราอาจจะคุ้นหู แต่ว่าความเข้าใจอาจจะไม่ตรงกับความหมายในพุทธศาสนา นั่นคือคำว่า อธิปไตย

เวลาเรานึกถึงอธิปไตย ก็นึกไปถึงเรื่องของการเมือง ระบอบการปกครอง เช่น ประชาธิปไตย แต่อธิปไตยในพุทธศาสนาไม่ใช่เป็นเรื่องของระบอบการปกครอง แต่เป็นเรื่องของการให้คุณค่าให้ความสำคัญ

อธิปไตยก็แปลว่าการถือเอาเป็นใหญ่ เอาอะไรเป็นใหญ่ ก็มี 3 ประการใหญ่ ๆ อันแรกคือธรรมาธิปไตย คือการเอาธรรมะเป็นใหญ่ อันที่ 2 คืออัตตาธิปไตย การถือเอาตัวเองหรืออัตตาเป็นใหญ่ และ 3 โลกาธิปไตย ถือเอาคนหมู่มากเป็นใหญ่ ความหมายนี้ก็คือว่าไม่ได้มีความเห็นเป็นของตัวเอง แต่ว่าทำไปตามความเห็นของคนส่วนใหญ่ ที่เรียกว่าโลก เป็นต้น

แต่ว่าหลัก ๆ ก็มีอยู่ 2 อย่าง ที่เราควรจะใส่ใจและก็ทำความเข้าใจให้ถูกต้อง นั่นคือ ธรรมาธิปไตยกับอัตตาธิปไตย

การถือธรรมเป็นใหญ่ ความหมายคือเอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ เวลาเราทำงานทำการหรือเราใช้ชีวิต ถ้าเราถือธรรมเป็นใหญ่หรือธรรมาธิปไตย เราก็จะตั้งตัวอยู่ในศีลในธรรม ไม่เบียดเบียนผู้อื่น เพราะเห็นแก่ความถูกต้อง แต่ถ้าเราเอาตัวเองเป็นใหญ่หรืออัตตาธิปไตย มันก็คือการเอาประโยชน์ของตัวเองเป็นใหญ่ ไม่สนใจว่าความถูกต้องหรือระเบียบกฎเกณฑ์จะเป็นอย่างไร ถ้าเราถือตัวเองเป็นใหญ่ การที่เราจะอยู่ในศีลธรรมก็ยาก เพราะว่าเอาความต้องการของตัวเองเป็นหลัก ซึ่งส่วนใหญ่ก็เป็นเรื่องของกิเลสนั่นแหละ หรือความเห็นแก่ตัว

อัตตาธิปไตยในความหมายที่แย่คือการเห็นแก่ตัว ส่วนธรรมาธิปไตยเห็นแก่ธรรมะ เห็นแก่ความถูกต้อง หรือถ้าพูดง่าย ๆ คือว่าธรรมาธิปไตยคือการเอาถูกความเป็นใหญ่ ส่วนอัตตาธิปไตยคือเอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่

อันนี้เราก็มาพิจารณาดูง่าย ๆ ในการดำเนินชีวิตของคนเรา ในแต่ละวันเราเอาอะไรเป็นใหญ่ อย่างเช่นเวลากินอาหาร ถ้าเราเอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ หรือธรรมาธิปไตย เราก็จะกินอาหารที่เป็นประโยชน์ต่อสุขภาพ เพื่อทำให้ร่างกายแข็งแรง มีกำลังวังชา เพื่อที่จะได้ทำกิจการงานต่าง ๆ ได้

แต่ถ้าเอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่ เราก็จะกินเพราะว่ามันอร่อย เอารสชาติเป็นใหญ่ ถึงแม้ว่ามันจะไม่เป็นประโยชน์ต่อสุขภาพ แต่มันอร่อย มันหวาน มันเปรี้ยว มันเผ็ด มันเค็ม หรือว่ามันสีสวยน่ากิน ทั้ง ๆ ที่มันอาจจะเจือไปด้วยสารพิษที่เป็นอันตราย

หลายคนก็รู้ว่ากินอาหารที่มันเต็มไปด้วยไขมัน อุดมไปด้วยน้ำตาล เป็นโทษต่อสุขภาพ แต่ก็ห้ามใจไม่ได้ กินมาก ๆ เข้า สุดท้ายก็เป็นโรคหัวใจ โรคเบาหวาน ไตวาย หรือบางทีถ้ากินอาหารประเภทที่มันเป็นของดิบ เช่น ปลาดิบ มีพยาธิใบไม้ในตับ ก็เกิดเป็นมะเร็งในตับ หลายคนก็รู้ว่ากินอาหารแบบนี้ ทำให้เกิดโรคเป็นมะเร็งในตับ รู้ว่ามันไม่ถูกต้องแต่ก็กิน เพราะมันถูกใจ

หรือเวลาเราเรียนหนังสือ ถ้าความถูกต้อง เราก็ต้องเรียนด้วยความขยันหมั่นเพียร ต้องมีความซื่อสัตย์สุจริต เวลาทำการบ้าน หรือเวลาเข้าห้องสอบ แต่ถ้าเราเอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่ เรียนบ้างไม่เรียนบ้าง บางวิชาฉันไม่ชอบฉันก็ไม่เรียน เวลาทำการบ้านก็ไปลอกจากเพื่อน หรือว่าไปตัดแปะมาจากกูเกิ้ลหรือวิกิพีเดีย เวลาสอบก็ทุจริต แม้รู้ว่าไม่ถูกต้อง แต่มันถูกใจ คือมันสะดวก ง่าย สบาย

เวลาทำงานถ้าเราเอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ เราก็จะทำงานด้วยความรับผิดชอบ แม้ว่าเป็นงานที่เราไม่ชอบ แต่เมื่อเรามีหน้าที่ เราก็ต้องพยายามทำให้ดีที่สุด เพราะเป็นความรับผิดชอบของเรา แต่ถ้าเอาความถูกใจ งานนี้ฉันไม่ชอบ ฉันก็ไม่ทำ ต่อเมื่อเป็นงานที่ฉันชอบ ฉันจึงจะทำ

หรือถ้าเป็นงานที่ฉันไม่ได้อะไร ฉันไม่ทำ จะทำก็ต่อเมื่อเป็นงานที่ได้ผลประโยชน์ เวลาจะทำอะไรก็จะถามว่าทำแล้วฉันจะได้อะไร อันนี้ก็คือเอาความถูกใจเป็นหลัก หรือเอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่ในเวลาทำงาน

เวลาใช้ข้าวของ เช่นโทรศัพท์มือถือ ถามตัวเราเองว่าเราใช้ความถูกต้องหรือความถูกใจ ถ้าใช้ความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ ก็จะใช้โทรศัพท์เพื่อติดต่องานการ ทำกิจธุระ หาความรู้ เช็คข้อมูล อาจจะดูหนังฟังเพลงบ้าง ก็ให้เวลากับมันพอสมควร ไม่ใช่หมกมุ่นอยู่กับมัน โดยไม่เป็นอันทำอะไร งานการก็ไม่สนใจ ก้มหน้าดูแต่โทรศัพท์ ใช้ดูหนังฟังเพลง หรือบางทีหนักกว่านั้น ใช้เพื่อเล่นพนันออนไลน์ หรือเล่นเกมออนไลน์ วันหนึ่งหลายชั่วโมง การใช้โทรศัพท์มือถือแบบนี้ ก็เรียกว่าไม่ได้เอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ แต่เอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่

ฉะนั้นลองพิจารณาดูเรื่องการใช้ชีวิตของคนเรา รวมทั้งความสัมพันธ์กับผู้คน เราใช้อะไรเป็นใหญ่ เอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ หรือเอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่ เวลาคบเพื่อน เวลามีเรื่องที่ต้องเกี่ยวข้องกับผู้คน ถ้าเราเอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ เราก็จะคำนึงถึงความรู้สึกของอีกฝ่ายหนึ่ง เราจะไม่คิดถึงแต่จะเบียดเบียน เอาเปรียบ ต้องมีความเสียสละ แล้วก็รู้จักอดกลั้น ไม่ทำตามอารมณ์

แต่ถ้าเอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่ ก็เรียกว่าไม่สนใจว่าคนอื่น เขาจะรู้สึกอย่างไร เอาเปรียบได้ก็เอาเปรียบ ไม่พอใจอะไรก็โวยวาย เรียกว่าขาดน้ำใจ แล้วก็ขาดความรับผิดชอบ มันเป็นเส้นแบ่งได้เลยในเรื่องคน ในเรื่องของพฤติกรรม ในเรื่องของการกระทำ ว่าเราใช้ความถูกต้องหรือความถูกใจ

ถ้าเราเอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ ชีวิตก็มีโอกาสที่จะเจริญก้าวหน้า อยู่ในศีลในธรรม ตั้งมั่นในความดี แต่ถ้าเราเอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่ ก็มีโอกาสที่จะตกต่ำย่ำแย่ เพราะสุดท้ายก็กลายเป็นคนเห็นแก่ตัว หรือว่าตกเป็นทาสของกิเลส อยากกินอะไรก็กิน อยากทำอะไรก็ทำ ไม่ได้สนใจส่วนรวม

เวลามาอยู่วัดก็เหมือนกัน ถ้าเอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ เราก็จะปฏิบัติตามกฎระเบียบ แม้บางอย่างเราอาจจะต้องฝืนใจทำ เพราะว่าเราเป็นคนตื่นสาย แต่ว่าเราจำเป็นต้องตื่นเช้ามาทำวัตร เพราะว่ามันเป็นระเบียบ มันเป็นข้อวัตร เป็นกติกา เวลามีการทำกิจส่วนรวมก็ไปร่วมช่วยทำ

แต่ถ้าเราเอาความถูกใจเป็นใหญ่ มาบ้างไม่มาบ้าง ทำวัตร เอาความอยากของตัวเองเป็นหลัก ไม่อยากมาก็ไม่มา หรือว่าไม่อยากตื่นก็ไม่ตื่น งานที่เป็นของส่วนรวม ฉันไม่อยากทำฉันก็ไม่ทำ อันนี้ก็ทำให้ชีวิตเราย่ำแย่ไป

แต่ที่จริงแล้วถ้าเราแยกแยะความถูกต้อง ความถูกใจเป็น ก็จะทำให้เราสามารถที่จะใช้ชีวิตไปในทางที่ถูกต้องได้ แต่บางครั้งมันก็ไม่ง่ายที่เราจะแยกแยะได้ชัดเจน ระหว่างความถูกต้องกับความถูกใจ เพราะบางครั้งกิเลสมันก็ฉลาด มันจะอ้างความถูกต้องเฉพาะเวลาที่ถูกใจ แต่ถ้าหากว่าความถูกต้องยามใดไม่ถูกใจฉัน ฉันก็ไม่สนใจ

อย่างเช่นเวลาทำงาน สิ้นปีก็มีโบนัส ถ้าหากว่าฉันได้โบนัส แต่ถ้ารู้ว่าคนอื่นได้โบนัสมากกว่าฉัน เช่นฉันได้ 50,000 แต่อีกคนได้ 70,000 หรือแสนหนึ่ง ก็จะไม่พอใจ ก็จะอ้างว่าไม่ถูกต้อง ไม่เป็นธรรม ความเป็นธรรมคืออะไร ความถูกต้องคืออะไร ก็คือต้องได้เท่ากัน ก็อาจจะเรียกร้อง อาจจะประท้วง อาจจะโวยวายว่ามันต้องเป็นธรรม คือต้องได้เท่ากัน ถึงจะถูกต้อง

แต่ถ้าหากว่าตัวเองได้มากกว่า ตัวเองได้แสน แต่ว่าคนอื่นเขาได้ 50,000, 70,000 เงียบเลย ไม่พูดสักคำเลยว่ามันไม่ถูกต้อง มันไม่เป็นธรรม เพราะอะไร เพราะว่าฉันได้มากกว่า คราวนี้ฉันได้มากกว่า ก็ถือว่าเป็นเรื่องที่ถูกใจฉันแล้ว ถึงตอนนี้ก็ทิ้งเรื่องความถูกต้องไป แต่ถ้าเราเอาความถูกต้องเป็นใหญ่ แม้ว่าจะมีเงินหรือได้เงินมากกว่าคนอื่น มันก็ไม่ถูกต้องอยู่นั่นเอง ก็ต้องทำให้เกิดความถูกต้องขึ้นมา คือว่าต้องได้เท่าคนอื่น

หลายคนเรียกร้องความถูกต้อง เรียกร้องความเป็นธรรม บ่อยครั้งเลยเพราะว่าตัวเองสูญเสียผลประโยชน์ หรือว่าไม่ได้ประโยชน์เท่ากับคนอื่น ถ้าหากว่าตัวเองได้เกิดน้อยกว่าคนอื่น จะเรียกร้องความเป็นธรรม เรียกร้องความถูกต้อง แต่ถ้าหากว่าตัวเองได้มากกว่าคนอื่น ความถูกต้องก็ลืมไปเลย อันนี้แหละนะเรียกว่าอ้างความถูกต้องต่อเมื่อมันถูกใจฉัน ทั้งที่ถ้าถูกต้องแล้วฉันได้เท่าคนอื่น แต่กลับดีหากว่าฉันได้มากกว่าคนอื่น แล้วหากความถูกต้องหมายถึงว่าฉันต้องได้น้อยลง ลดลงมาจากแสนให้เหลือ 70,000 เท่ากับคนอื่น ฉันไม่เอาแล้ว

อันนี้ก็เป็นสิ่งที่เราพบอยู่บ่อย ๆ อ้างความถูกต้องต่อเมื่อมันถูกใจ แต่ถ้ามันไม่ถูกใจฉันเมื่อไหร่ ก็ไม่อ้างความถูกต้องแล้ว ลืมไปเลย อันนี้ก็ต้องระมัดระวัง เพราะบางครั้งกิเลสมันก็ฉลาด มันก็อ้างความถูกต้อง เพื่อสนองผลประโยชน์ของมัน และบางทีเราก็นิยามความถูกต้องแปรผันไป ขึ้นอยู่กับความถูกใจ

ความถูกต้องหรือความเป็นธรรม มันก็มองได้หลายแง่ และตรงนี้แหละ เป็นโอกาสที่จะทำให้ตัวกิเลสมันมาเป็นตัวกำหนด ว่าอย่างไหนเรียกว่าเป็นความถูกต้อง

อย่างเช่นหมู่บ้านหนึ่ง เมื่อสัก 30-40 ปีก่อน สมัยที่ยังไม่มีอบต. ในหมู่บ้านนั้นมีปั๊มน้ำ ที่ใช้แบบคันโยก เป็นปั๊มน้ำของหมู่บ้าน มันเกิดเสียขึ้นมา นักศึกษาที่เป็นพัฒนากรประจำหมู่บ้าน เขาก็เสนอว่าควรจะเก็บเงินทุกหลังคาเลยหลังคาละ 10 บาท เพื่อเป็นค่าซ่อมปั๊ม

ปรากฏว่าชาวบ้านหลายคนไม่ยอม บอกว่าบ้านฉันอยู่ไกลจากปั๊มน้ำ ฉันไม่ค่อยได้ใช้หรอก บ้านไหนที่ใช้ปั๊มมากกว่า เพราะอยู่ใกล้ปั๊ม ควรจะเสียมากกว่า ส่วนบ้านไหนที่อยู่ไกลใช้น้อย ก็ควรจะเสียน้อย แทนที่จะเสีย 10 บาท ก็เสีย 5 บาท เสียเท่ากันนี่ถือว่าไม่เป็นธรรม ตกลงก็เป็นอันว่าต้องเสียไม่เท่ากัน

แต่หนึ่งเดือนต่อมาในหมู่บ้าน มีคนเอาผ้าห่มมาแจก เพราะว่ามันใกล้ฤดูหนาว เอามาถวายวัด หลวงพ่อเจ้าอาวาสท่านก็ปรึกษามัคทายก เพราะว่าผ้าห่มมันไม่พอที่จะแจกให้ชาวบ้านทุกครัวเรือนเท่ากัน มัคทายกก็เสนอว่าบ้านไหนที่ช่วยส่วนรวมได้ 2 ผืน บ้านไหนที่ไม่ค่อยช่วยส่วนรวมได้ 1 ผืน

พอประกาศอย่างนี้เข้า ชาวบ้านไม่พอใจ บอกว่าไม่เป็นธรรม เป็นธรรมคืออะไร เป็นธรรมคือต้องได้เท่ากัน ก็แปลกนะ เวลาจ่ายเงิน ต้องจ่ายไม่เท่ากัน ถึงจะเป็นธรรม แต่เวลาพอได้ผ้าห่มหรือแจกผ้าห่ม ต้องได้เท่ากันถึงจะเป็นธรรม

อันนี้แปลว่าอะไร แปลว่าความเป็นธรรมหรือความถูกต้องนี่มันไม่แน่นอน มันแปรผันขึ้นอยู่กับความถูกใจ จ่ายเท่ากัน หลายคนไม่ถูกใจ ควรจะจ่ายน้อยกว่า จ่ายไม่เท่ากันจึงจะเรียกว่าเป็นธรรม แต่ถึงเวลาได้ ต้องได้เท่ากันจึงจะเป็นธรรม

ถ้าเราพิจารณาดูก็จะพบว่า นี่มันเป็นการนิยามคำว่าเป็นธรรม หรือความถูกต้องโดยอาศัยความถูกใจ ถึงเวลาได้ ต้องได้เท่ากันจึงจะถูกใจ ถ้าได้ไม่เท่ากัน ไม่ถูกใจ ก็ถือว่าไม่เป็นธรรม แต่เวลาจ่าย ต้องจ่ายไม่เท่ากันจึงจะถูกต้อง ฉันต้องจ่ายน้อยกว่า เพราะบ้านฉันอยู่ไกล อย่างนี้เรียกว่าเป็นธรรม

ฉะนั้นความเป็นธรรม ถ้าเราไม่ระวัง มันก็เป็นข้ออ้างเพื่อสนองกิเลส เพื่อสนองความถูกใจ ถ้าเราดูให้ดี ๆ ความถูกต้อง ความถูกใจ แม้ว่าความหมายจะต่างกัน แต่ถ้าไม่ระวัง มันก็กลายเป็นเรื่องเดียวกันได้ ก็คือว่าอันไหนถูกใจจึงเรียกว่าถูกต้อง อันไหนไม่ถูกใจก็เรียกว่าไม่ถูกต้อง

และอีกอย่างหนึ่งคือแม้เราจะมีความชัดเจนว่าอย่างนี้คือความถูกต้อง แต่ก็ต้องระวัง อย่าไปยึดมั่นถือมั่นกับมันมาก เพราะถ้าเราไปยึดมั่นถือมั่นกับความถูกต้องเมื่อไหร่ พอเจอใครทำอะไรไม่ถูกต้อง กลายเป็นไม่ถูกใจไปเลย

อย่างที่เคยเล่า ศีลจาริณี บวชใหม่ ไม่รู้ธรรมเนียม ยืนกินน้ำ แม่ชีเดินผ่านมาเห็นคาตาเลย อย่างนี้ไม่ถูกต้อง แต่ว่าไปยึดกับความถูกต้องมากไป พอเจอความไม่ถูกต้องขึ้นมา โกรธนะ ทุบหลังศีลจาริณีเลย อันนี้เรียกว่าเป็นเพราะยึดมั่นความถูกต้องมาก ยึดมั่นกับระเบียบมาก พอยึดมั่นกับระเบียบหรือความถูกต้อง พอเจอความไม่ถูกต้อง หรือใครทำอะไรไม่ถูกต้อง ก็จะโกรธ

หรือว่าที่วัดก็มีระเบียบ เวลาฟังธรรมต้องปิดโทรศัพท์มือถือ อันนี้คือความถูกต้องที่ควรปฏิบัติร่วมกัน แต่เกิดมีโยมคนหนึ่งลืมปิดโทรศัพท์มือถือ แล้วบังเอิญมีคนโทรเข้ามา เสียงก็ดังกลางศาลาเลย ขณะที่เจ้าอาวาสกำลังเทศน์อยู่ นี่เป็นความไม่ถูกต้องแท้ ๆ เลย ถ้ายึดมั่นกับความถูกต้องมาก เวลาเจอความไม่ถูกต้องแบบนี้ก็โกรธ

โกรธแล้วเป็นอย่างไร ก็ตะโกนด่าเลย เจ้าอาวาสก็ตะโกนด่าเลย กำลังเทศน์อยู่ดีๆ เปลี่ยนโหมดเลยนะ เป็นการด่าแทน ด่าเจ้าของโทรศัพท์ที่ลืมปิดโทรศัพท์ อันนี้เรียกว่าพอเจอความไม่ถูกต้องนี่ มันเกิดไม่ถูกใจขึ้นมา พอไม่ถูกใจแล้วกิเลสมันก็พร้อมที่จะเล่นงาน พร้อมที่จะโวยวาย พร้อมที่จะพูด หรือพร้อมที่จะกระทำอะไรก็ตามด้วยอำนาจของโทสะ ด้วยอำนาจของกิเลส ซึ่งเป็นเรื่องของอัตตาธิปไตย

ฉะนั้นเราต้องระวัง ขณะที่เรายึดมั่นในความถูกต้อง ถ้าเรายึดมั่นมากไป พอเจอใครทำอะไรไม่ถูกต้องขึ้นมา ความไม่ถูกต้องจะกลายเป็นความไม่ถูกใจทันทีเลย ทั้งๆ ที่ดูเผินๆ ไม่ถูกต้องกับไม่ถูกใจนี่มันห่างกันนะ มันไกลกันมาก

เช่นเดียวกับความถูกต้อง ความถูกใจ บางทีมันก็ไกลกันมาก แต่ในบางครั้งบางคราว ถ้าไม่รู้ทันมัน มันกลายเป็นเรื่องเดียวกันไปเลย คือถ้าไม่ถูกต้องเมื่อไหร่ ก็ไม่ถูกใจเมื่อนั้น หรือจะเป็นสิ่งที่ถูกต้อง ก็ต่อเมื่อมันถูกใจ ถ้าอันไหนไม่ถูกใจ ก็ไม่ถูกต้องไป

อันนี้มันต้องใช้สติพิจารณา การที่เรารู้ว่าอะไรถูก อะไรผิด เป็นสิ่งที่ดี และการที่เราปฏิบัติตามความถูกต้อง ก็เป็นสิ่งที่ดี เรียกว่ามีธรรมาธิปไตย แต่ถ้าเรายึดมั่นในความถูกต้องมากไป มันก็ง่ายมากเลยนะ ที่เวลาเจอใครทำอะไรไม่ถูกต้อง ความไม่ถูกต้องก็กลายเป็นความไม่ถูกใจ หรือกระตุ้นให้เกิดความไม่ถูกใจทันที

แล้วบางทีก็ไม่รู้ตัวนะ ก็ยังคิดว่าฉันทำสิ่งที่ถูกต้อง แต่ที่จริงแล้วสิ่งที่ทำไปมันถูกใจต่างหาก แล้วมันก็เกินเลยความถูกต้องไป เพราะว่าไปทุบหลังคนอื่นนี่มันจะถูกต้องได้อย่างไร หรือว่าไปตะโกนด่ากลางศาลาในขณะที่ขาดสติ หรือทำไปด้วยความโกรธ จะเป็นความถูกต้องได้อย่างไร มันก็เป็นเรื่องละเอียดอ่อน ความถูกต้องไม่ใช่ว่ามันจะกลายเป็นสิ่งตรงข้ามกับความถูกใจ

ถ้าเราไม่ระวัง ความยึดมั่นถือมั่น มันก็จะทำให้ความถูกต้องกับความถูกใจ กลายเป็นอันเดียวกัน แล้วก็ทำให้เกิดความผิดพลาด หรือเกิดความเสียหายขึ้น

หลายคนก็ทำสิ่งที่ไม่ถูกต้องเพื่อพิทักษ์ความถูกต้อง อันนี้มีเยอะเลย ที่เป็นข่าวก็คือว่าไปฆ่าคนนั้นคนนี้เพื่อรักษาความถูกต้อง ไม่ว่าเป็นความถูกต้องทางการเมือง ความถูกต้องทางศาสนา

อย่างพวกที่เป็นพวกก่อการร้าย หลายคนเขาก็คิดว่าเขาทำเพื่อพระเจ้า เขาทำเพื่อพิทักษ์ความถูกต้องทางศาสนา แต่ว่าสิ่งที่เขาทำ มันกลายเป็นความไม่ถูกต้องไปเสียแล้ว ทำไปด้วยอำนาจของกิเลส ตัวเองเป็นคนตัดสินว่าใครจะอยู่ใครจะไป ใครที่คิดไม่เหมือนฉัน ก็ต้องถูกกำจัดออกไปจากโลกนี้ เพราะมันเป็นคนที่คิดไม่ถูกต้อง ปฏิบัติไม่ถูกต้อง

ที่จริงก็เป็นเพียงแค่เห็นต่างจากตัวเองเท่านั้น แต่พอเจอคนที่เห็นต่าง ก็เปลี่ยนจากความไม่ถูกใจ กลายเป็นข้ออ้างว่าเขาทำสิ่งที่ไม่ถูกต้อง เพราะฉะนั้นก็สมควรกำจัดออกไปจากโลกนี้

อันนี้เป็นสิ่งที่เราเห็นมากขึ้นเรื่อยๆ ที่เป็นข่าว แล้วมันไม่ใช่เพราะเรื่องศาสนาอย่างเดียว เรื่องการเมือง เรื่องวัฒนธรรม ก็มีความถูกต้องของมัน แต่ถ้าไปยึดความถูกต้องมากไป ใครที่ปฏิบัติไม่ถูกต้องในสายตาของเรา มันก็กลายเป็นสิ่งที่กระตุ้นความไม่ถูกใจ ทำให้เกิดความโกรธ ทำให้เกิดข้ออ้างในการที่จะจัดการ ทำร้าย หรือว่าสังหาร

ฉะนั้นต้องระวังมากทีเดียว การทำความไม่ถูกต้อง ในนามของความถูกต้อง ก็กลายเป็นว่าทำไปด้วยอำนาจของกิเลส แทนที่จะเป็นธรรมาธิปไตย ก็กลายเป็นอัตตาธิปไตยไป.

https://youtu.be/nvGHQUvjvOE

พระไพศาล วิสาโล วัดป่าสุคะโต 4 กันยายน 2565 ขอขอบคุณ Nonglak Trongselsat

@ 58537364:705b4b85

Discipline is “doing things with intention, without being swayed or carried away by emotions.” On the other hand, lack of discipline implies the opposite:

Lack of discipline is “acting according to emotional fluctuations or being carried away by feelings,” such as sleepiness, hunger, boredom, frustration, satisfaction, dissatisfaction, fear, infatuation, or lack of mindfulness. This often leads to various excuses like:

• "I'll do it later."
• "I'm too tired."
• "It's too hot or too cold."
• "It's still early."
• "It's already too late."
• Etc.

Building lasting discipline “does not come from force, but from dreams.” The law of dreams states that we must create a clear vision of our ‘heaven’ (goal), then minimize the gap between thought and action. The more we overthink, the less likely we are to act—our mind becomes weak and unstable.

The law of dreams also suggests dreaming for others, not just for oneself. When the mind is overly focused on personal success, wisdom and insight diminish. Actions become self-centered and lack empathy. But when our goal is for the greater good, every action becomes meaningful and contributes to shared happiness and success.

— Metha Harimtepathipbodi

Read the TH full version at: https://w3.do/SODEDpmP

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

If you haven’t had the experience of waking up in the morning and fearing going to work, you’ve probably heard at least one story of someone who has. Someone who was afraid of their boss, a coworker, an impending audit, or layoffs. These stories are centered around fear, but what about fear’s older, more mature cousin, respect? How are they related, and what are their roles in the workplace?

Fear? Having a role in the workplace? I thought fear was bad and to be avoided at all costs? Didn’t we leave fear at work behind in the 1950s along with day-drinking and open misogyny? Not entirely it seems, but the fear we’re talking about today is of a different kind, a healthy kind. For example, a primary school child would have a healthy fear of bears. What about respect? While the term might feel dated in our current hyper-equality society, it too has a healthy version. As our example child matures, their fear of bears will develop into respect for them. They’ll understand their destructive power, but also that they’ll generally only engage it in defence. For another example, think back to your relationship with your childhood friend’s parents. As a child in an unknown adult’s home with different rules and expectations there was an amount of fear involved, but as an adult you most likely have respect for the amount of shenanigans they put up with at the hands of your and your friends.

Fear, even the unhealthy kind, can sometimes be leveraged for good. Fear of being yelled at might motivate you to finish the last 10% of a project or emptying your inbox before the end of the workday. It is better matured into respect whenever possible, however. The trade-off of fear of verbal assault or firing isn’t worth it. It’d be much healthier to be motivated by respect. Respect for your coworkers (who might also be made late by your procrastinations), your boss (who may need to take responsibility for the delay), and customers or clients (imagine yourself in their shoes).

We’ve established that respect is good, and that fear is a sometimes-useful antecedent of it. And we can all now hear a thousand voices screaming, “but so-and-so doesn’t respect me!” or “but so-and-so doesn’t deserve respect!”. They may not be wrong, so let’s see what we can do to help promote respect. Ignoring the edge cases where some people are arrogant to the point of not respecting anyone, the most common cause I’ve witnessed isn’t a lack of respect, but a misdirection of it. Respect has a directional flow from one person to another, and ideally there are streams flowing in both directions. You respect your boss for their authority and responsibilities, and your boss respects you for your expertise and commitment. Misdirection of respect isn’t giving it where it isn’t deserved but flowing in the wrong direction. For example, a coworker is regularly late for meetings, and the meeting chair says, “Out of respect for Bill we’re going to wait for them to start the meeting.” What about their respect for everyone else’s time? Respect is flowing in the wrong direction. The same thing can happen when making decisions. “Mary has been with us the longest, so we’re going to defer to her preferences and keep the fax machine in the document transfer workflow even though it’s expensive and takes longer.” Sometimes it can even lead to putting the unqualified in positions they’re incapable of executing out of a misdirection of respect. Permission to speak is an extremely common misdirection as well; respect for someone’s “right to be heard” shouldn’t override their respect for everyone else’s time.

The solution to this chaotic storm surge of misdirected respect is simple, but difficult. Break the fourth wall and haven open discussions. Start with groups and work your way down to one-on-one as necessary. Meeting start times is an excellent place to begin as most will agree that starting on time (especially with the goal of finishing on time!) is a practical shared good. Permission to speak in meetings (especially public ones) will be a difficult tackle but is also highly relevant. If respect directionality feels too heavy to bring up at work at all, try practising at home or with friends first. Failing that, a therapist or chat AI might be options.

Want someone with a neutral or outside voice to talk about fear and respect in your workplace? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 21810ca8:f2e8341e

If so, please comment. So I can see if Nostr works for me.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

In part 1 of this series (Part 1 - What is Money?) we overviewed the history of money and as a global concept. Now that we have a base understanding of what money is we can get into detail about the Canadian Dollar. Why the Canadian Dollar specifically? One of the inspirations for this series was realizing how much the pervasiveness of American media has affected the average Canadian’s understanding of how our money works. How many of you can quote what is printed on US bills? Do you know what is printed on Canadian bills? What about what the Canadian Dollar is backed by, and who’s in charge of it? To preview, it’s not gold, and it’s not the Federal Reserve.

Lets do some history to give us some background on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) as we know it today. In 1858 the Province of Canada introduced the Canadian Dollar as a hopeful replacement for the mix of British, American, Spanish, and private bank credit notes in use. In 1867 Canada was formed as a nation, and the next year the Government of Canada issued Dominion credit notes as currency. These Dominion notes were required to be backed by a minimum of 20% gold reserves. This is called a “fractional reserve” system, or fractional reserve banking. Reserve requirements for private bank notes and Dominion notes changed over the years leading up to 1935 when the Bank of Canada (BoC) was formed and became to sole issuer of currency in Canada. 10 years later gold reserve requirements were removed and the Dollar became a fully fiat currency (remember this term from the previous article?).

The Bank of Canada is Canada’s “central bank”. If you check out the About Us page on their website (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/about/) you’ll see they have a broad range of roles and responsibilities, but the main one we’re focused on is that they manage the Canadian Dollar as a system of money, including creating and destroying Dollars as they deem necessary. (This is similar to the American Federal Reserve, but a key difference is that the BoC is a crown corporation, while the Federal Reserve is owned by private banks.) The creation and destruction of Dollars is a complex process, but it’s mostly done through borrowing. The government indirectly borrows money from the BoC (and sometimes directly from commercial banks), and everyone else borrows from banks. This money is then created by the BoC and banks, and when the principal (debt exclusive of interest) is paid back, its destroyed.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention and define “inflation”, “monetary expansion”, and the “Quantity Theory of Money”. The BoC defines inflation as “…a persistent rise in the average level of prices over time.” They have an excellent explainer on their website here (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/08/understanding-inflation/); to summarize, the BoC and government use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to keep track of this. “Monetary expansion” is when money is created and kept in circulation. The “Quantity Theory of Money” states that when new money is created it becomes less valuable, which means prices increase, AKA inflation. With this in mind the BoC targets a 2% inflation rate when making decisions about creating and destroying Dollars (through the systems of borrowing). Whether they’re successful or not is the subject of an article all on its own and much speculation.

I should also mention an outlier in the Canadian financial system; Credit Unions. These are provincial banks that don’t have a direct relationship with the BoC. They’re generally much smaller than the national banks and offer fewer services, but many feel they offer a more personal service. And one credit union in particular is an outlier among outliers; Bow Valley Credit Union in Alberta. They’ve embarked on mission to stockpile precious metals (mostly gold) as a form of guarantee for customer deposits. They still practice fractional reserve banking, but this is an improvement over zero reserve banking.

You might be imagining stacks of Dollar notes being passed around all these institutions, but most of the money only exists in ledgers (remember this from part 1?). For comparison, there is currently about $250B in the M0 supply (liquid deposits at the BoC and cash), and the rest totals about $3500B, or $3.5T. That’s about 7% as “real” money that could be used to buy groceries or for payroll. To move this invisible money around the government created Payments Canada, a non-profit that operates most of the inter-institution transfer systems. (They have other responsibilities as well.) Lynx and the Automated Clearing Settlement System (ACSS) are currently in use, and Real-Time Rail (RTR) is coming soon to augment them.

On the retail side, we have the Interac network and credit card networks. The Interac Corporation (a for-profit founded and primarily owned by major national banks) operates the Interac network, which is the primary debit card network in Canada, as well as Interac e-Transfer for direct electronic payments. Visa and Mastercard are the primary credit card networks, but they simply move payment information between banks and Payment Services Providers (PSPs). PSPs are responsible for the actual payment settlements. You’ve probably heard of some of the major ones; Moneris, Chase, Square, and PayPal to name a few. If that sounds complicated, that’s because it is. Let’s walk through an example credit card payment at a physical store to see how it works. The customer inserts, taps, or swipes their card at the payment terminal, typically managed by a Point of Sale (POS) provider. The terminal sends the information to the PSP, who sends the information through the credit card network to the issuing bank. If the transaction is approved, it’s logged for transfer in a batch later, and the approval makes it way back through the credit card network, PSP, terminal, and POS.

Wipe the sweat from your brow and take a sip of coffee; that was a lot! The important part to remember is that all of this complexity serves to move numbers between accounts in ledgers. The government (through the BoC) controls the money supply (the primary driver of inflation), and the banks and networks move the ledger numbers between individuals, companies, and each other. About 7% is liquid, and 0% is backed by hard assets such as gold.

In part 3 we’ll cover Bitcoin, its intention to replace fiat currencies, and its current state in Canada.

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Minimum wage has been a hot topic as far back as I can remember. If you’re an employer it can feel like government needlessly meddling in the free market, while for employees it feels like its never high enough to make a difference. This is especially true where oversaturated labour markets are combined with high costs of living (HCOL) (which is pretty much everywhere at this point). Workers may need 2 or even 3 minimum wage jobs just to cover food, shelter, and transport in these areas, and would probably love to see minimum wage lifted. Employers in less-dense areas are faced with the opposite problem; even if they advertise pay “above minimum wage”, acquiring and keeping entry-level staff in HCOL areas is a constant battle. In this case, my recommendation is to localize your minimum wage.

In Canada most enforceable minimum wages are set by the provinces. Federal minimums apply to federal government employees (and some federally regulated industries). The problem with this is the sometimes broad disparities in cost of living (COL) between municipalities, especially between urban and rural. I’ve seen rent differences from 50% to 100% for comparable apartments. Applying the same minimum wage isn’t going to have the effect it’s meant to. If your staff can’t afford rent, they’re going to constantly be searching for something better, leading to high turnover. They’ll be forced into mercenary behaviours (see my previous post on “True Believers & Mercenaries”). Official minimum wages also lag behind inflation, but that’s a whole separate discussion (see my “What is Money?” series, starting with “Part 1 - What is Money?). On the flip-side, having a localized minimum wage allows your employees to stay settled where they are and gives them the freedom to be True Believers. You can work it directly into your job postings too; advertising wages that are based on local COL will have your inbox flooded with applications, allowing you to choose from the best instead of having to settle for the desperate. Let’s get into how to go about localizing your minimum wage.

First, look at a map and ponder how far most would be willing to commute to your workplace. Draw a rough circle with that as the radius. Everywhere inside this circle is fair game for everything to follow. Next, find some low-rent but livable apartments inside the circle and look up their rates. This will be your rent figure.

Transport is next. We’re going to use fuel cost as a “close enough” placeholder as actual costs will vary greatly between individuals. We’re also going to pick a “close enough” fuel efficiency for the same reason. I’ve chosen 8.5L/100KM, but you can adjust this. For example, full-size pickups may be more popular among your staff so that number may need to go up. Look up the average fuel prices for the last few months at retail stations within the circle, and the average working days per month for your staff. Now plug all of these numbers into the following formula and calculate. This will give you the monthly fuel cost: (fuel price x 8.5 x (circle radius KM x 2) / 100) x working days

Lastly, groceries. Like transport, we’re aiming for a “close enough” placeholder. You can substitute any items and volumes you like, but these are my recommendation to get an average monthly cost for an average minimum wage worker plus 1 dependant. Go to a generic grocery store within the circle and get the regular (non-sale) prices of the following: 3 x 3lb/1.36kg apples (averaged or middle price), 5 x single Long English cucumber, 1 x 10lb bag of potatoes, 2 x 4L 2% milk, 4 x 1 dozen large eggs, 2 x 600g block of cheese (average or middle price), 6 x loaf of brown or whole grain bakery bread (average or middle price), 5 x 1lb/454g lean ground beef, 1 x 4kg box frozen chicken breasts, and 1 x 3.5lb/1.6kg bag of jasmine rice.

Now that you have totals for the expenses, put those numbers into the following formula. This will give you total monthly living expenses: ((rent + groceries) / 0.45) + fuel Put that total into the following formula for the monthly paycheque total, pre-deductions. Insert current federal and provincial income tax rates for your jurisdiction: expenses / (1 - (provincial tax rate as decimal + federal tax rate as decimal + 0.05) With this final total you can divide by monthly working hours for an hourly wage, or multiply by 12 for an annual salary. I’ll provide an example of all of this at the bottom of the article.

After crunching these numbers you may have concluded that paying a localized minimum wage would eat into your profits. This may be the case initially, but lowering turnover rates and increasing the quality of your hires will save you money long-term. However, if it raises costs so high that the business would become unprofitable, you may need to consider that the business isn’t viable. Being dependant on employees willing to work for below the cost of living in your area will eventually end the business regardless, and I would argue is immoral.

Want help localizing your minimum wage? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

Sample localized minimum wage calculation: Rent: $1,200 Fuel cost: ((1.40 x 8.5 x (9.4 x 2) / 100) x 20 = $44.75 Groceries: $229.46 Apples: 23.97 Cucumbers: 14.95 Potatoes: 8.99 Milk: 11.90 Eggs: 17.40 Cheese: 20.58 Bread: 23.94 Ground beef: 42.45 Chicken breasts: 49.99 Rice: 15.29 Total expenses: ((1200 + 229.46) / 0.45) + 44.75 = $3,221.33 Total monthly paycheque: 3221.33 / (1 - (0.10 + 0.15 + 0.05) = $4,601.90 Hourly: 4601.90 / 160 = $28.76 Annual salary: 4601.90 x 12 = $55,222.80

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Michigan lawmakers are unveiling a comprehensive strategy to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

On May 21, Republican Representative Bill Schuette introduced House Bill 4510, a proposal to amend the Michigan Public Employee Retirement System Investment Act. The legislation would allow the state treasurer, currently Rachael Eubanks, to diversify the state’s investments by including cryptocurrencies with an average market capitalization of over $250 million in the past calendar year.

Under current criteria, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are the only cryptocurrencies that meet these selection standards. The proposal specifies that any investment in digital assets must be made through exchange-traded products (spot ETFs) issued by registered investment companies.

Anti-CBDC legislation

Republican Representative Bryan Posthumus is leading the bipartisan initiative behind the second bill, HB 4511, which establishes protections for cryptocurrency holders. The proposal prohibits Michigan from implementing crypto bans or imposing licensing requirements on digital asset holders.

Another key aspect of the legislation is a ban on state officials from supporting or promoting a potential federal central bank digital currency (CBDC). The definition includes the issuance of memorandums or official statements endorsing CBDC proposals related to testing, adoption, or implementation.

Mining and redevelopment of abandoned sites

The third bill, HB 4512, is a proposal led by Democratic Representative Mike McFall for a bipartisan group. This initiative would establish a Bitcoin mining program allowing operators to use abandoned oil and natural gas sites.

The program calls for the appointment of a supervisor tasked with assessing the site’s remaining productive potential, identifying the last operator, and determining the length of abandonment. Prospective participants would need to submit detailed legal documentation of their organizational structure, demonstrate operational expertise in mining, and provide profitability breakeven estimates for their ventures.

The fourth and final bill, HB 4513, also introduced by the bipartisan group led by McFall, focuses on the fiscal aspect of the HB 4512 initiative. The proposal would amend Michigan’s income tax laws to include proceeds generated from the proposed Bitcoin mining program.

The post Michigan: four bills on pension funds, CBDCs, and mining appeared first on Atlas21.

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A fake Uber driver steals $73,000 in XRP and $50,000 in Bitcoin after drugging an American tourist.

A U.S. citizen vacationing in the United Kingdom fell victim to a scam that cost him $123,000 in cryptocurrencies stored on his smartphone. The man was drugged by an individual posing as an Uber driver.

According to My London, Jacob Irwin-Cline had spent the evening at a London nightclub, consuming several alcoholic drinks before requesting an Uber ride home. The victim admitted he hadn’t carefully verified the booking details on his device, mistakenly getting into a private taxi driven by someone who, at first glance, resembled the expected Uber driver but was using a completely different vehicle.

Once inside the car, the American tourist reported that the driver offered him a cigarette, allegedly laced with scopolamine — a rare and powerful sedative. Irwin-Cline described how the smoke made him extremely docile and fatigued, causing him to lose consciousness for around half an hour.

Upon waking, the driver ordered the victim to get out of the vehicle. As Irwin-Cline stepped out, the man suddenly accelerated, running him over and fleeing with his mobile phone, which contained the private keys and access to his cryptocurrencies. Screenshots provided to MyLondon show that $73,000 worth of XRP and $50,000 in bitcoin had been transferred to various wallets.

This incident adds to a growing trend of kidnappings, extortions, armed robberies, and ransom attempts targeting crypto executives, investors, and their families.

Just a few weeks ago, the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, CEO of crypto exchange Paymium, were targeted in a kidnapping attempt in Paris. The incident took place in broad daylight when attackers tried to force the family into a parked vehicle. However, Noizat’s daughter managed to fight off the assailants.

The post American tourist drugged and robbed: $123,000 in crypto stolen in London appeared first on Atlas21.

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The Dhamma of the Buddha is not merely a concept or philosophical hypothesis. It is the direct seeing of the truth — that suffering truly exists within us, and that it can genuinely be ended — through observing, with wisdom, not by calculation or blind belief.

Suffering is not an abstract idea; it is a real experience we can feel. When we truly understand suffering by facing it directly — not running from it or deceiving ourselves — we will see that the sense of “self” is the root of suffering. Every time the feeling of “this is me, this is mine” arises — suffering follows.

The solution is not in argument or debate, but in taking action to see and know this truth for ourselves.

Thus, Dhamma is the science of the mind — not just a philosophy. And this is why the Buddha’s teachings have never become outdated, even after more than 2,500 years.

Read the TH full version at: https://w3.do/okHFEDy-

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Banking giants JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are in talks to develop a unified stablecoin solution.

According to the Wall Street Journal on May 22, some of the largest financial institutions in the United States are exploring the possibility of joining forces to launch a stablecoin.

Subsidiaries of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have initiated preliminary discussions for a joint stablecoin issuance, according to sources close to the matter cited by the WSJ. Also at the negotiating table are Early Warning Services, the parent company of the digital payments network Zelle, and the payment network Clearing House.

The talks are reportedly still in the early stages, and any final decision could change depending on regulatory developments and market demand for stablecoins.

Stablecoin regulation

On May 20, the US Senate voted 66 to 32 to advance discussion of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), a specific law to regulate stablecoins. The bill outlines a regulatory framework for stablecoin collateralization and mandates compliance with anti-money laundering rules.

David Sacks, White House crypto advisor, expressed optimism about the bill’s bipartisan approval. However, senior Democratic Party officials intend to amend the bill to include a clause preventing former President Donald Trump and other US officials from profiting from stablecoins.

Demand for stablecoins has increased, with total market capitalization rising to $245 billion from $205 billion at the beginning of the year, a 20% increase.

The post Major US banks consider launching a joint stablecoin appeared first on Atlas21.

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“Phra Ajahn (Venerable Sir), I don’t mean any offense, but since Buddhism already has its core teachings, if I think that we should reduce the number of temples or their structures, would that be considered sinful?”

“Bless you. When you eat a banana, do you eat the peel or the fruit?”

“I eat the fruit.”

“Oh… and before you eat it, do you peel it?”

The clean-faced girl nodded.

“Why do you peel it?”

“Because the peel isn’t edible.”

“Oh, so the peel is completely useless, right?”

She shook her head.

The narrator continues:

“In truth, the peel has a purpose—it protects the fruit. The same goes for durian or jackfruit peels. Think about it, if a fruit has a tough peel, it usually keeps the inside well protected—and the inside is often delicious…”

“To eat the fruit, we shouldn’t get confused and eat the peel. Nor should we eat only the peel and discard the fruit. Our role is to know what’s the peel and what’s the fruit—and we must know how to peel it.”

“I must admit, personally, I don’t care much for construction, decoration, or rituals, but I understand—some people enjoy them and find them beneficial. That’s valid. We just don’t have to argue about it…”

“It’s a matter of knowing how to ‘peel.’ Don’t get lost in the outer layers, but also don’t discard the essence inside. Instead, help guide others to understand, without throwing away what matters most…”

“For example, take prostrating. I don’t mind whether or not people prostrate to me. It’s not mandatory.”

“After reading the sutras and analyzing them, I found that in the Buddha’s time, when he gave teachings, many people came to listen. Some prostrated, some just joined their palms, some didn’t prostrate and just sat down, and some walked by without listening at all.”

“Likewise, when people left, their reactions varied. Some came with faith and left with it. Some changed and lost faith. Others came with doubt but gained faith later. And some never changed. That was during the Buddha’s time, no less.”

“So, we must ask: What does prostrating give us? I started doing it only after I was ordained. I’ve been doing it for 14 years. At first, I just followed along.”

“But later, I began to understand—it trains humility, helps reduce ego and pride, and teaches us appropriate behavior.”

“When someone prostrates to me, I feel more inclined to teach or talk with them, compared to those who don’t. With the latter, it’s harder to read them—so I just stay still and observe first.”

“Do you think some people prostrate without understanding the meaning, just copying others?”

The girl nodded.

“Right? So, I think prostrating, rituals, and temple buildings are not the ultimate essence of Buddhism. But they have meaning. They help guide us to reach the deeper benefit hidden within. It’s our job to understand them—if we really want to understand.”

“I believe that true religion doesn’t reside in material things. If it did, then Borobudur, the largest Buddhist monument in the world, filled with stupas, should be bustling with monks and Buddhists.”

“But do you know what it’s like now?”

The girl shook her head.

“…Now it’s just a tourist attraction. No monks live there anymore.”

“You said we should reduce the number of temples. What would you do with the space?”

“Maybe turn it into a public park or something.”

“That’s a good idea. I like it. Others could come and use it, too—with trees and animals. People would feel more at peace.”

The girl’s eyes lit up.

“But couldn’t we just plant more trees in the temples and make them like parks? Isn’t that a good idea?”

She smiled.

“Even though I don’t want us to cling to material or ritualistic forms, I still see their benefits. Look over there!”

He pointed to a carved wooden box.

All the children turned to look.

“…This box might be just ordinary wood. But once carved, it instantly looks valuable. It’s different from other boxes. The craftsman needed skill, time, and dedication to create it.”

“…If you had several wooden boxes to choose from, this would likely be among the first you’d pick.”

“This is what we call the value of beauty. Beautiful temples and buildings draw people to care for them, clean them, preserve them, and host meaningful events within. I guess that’s why temple architecture became such a tradition in the first place.”

“One last thing—about merit and sin.”

“Let’s understand the meanings first. Merit means cleansing the mind. Sin means lowering the mind, making it gloomy or defiled.”

“If you want to make a public park—merit or sin?”

“Merit.”

“If you’re annoyed and want to destroy all temples—merit or sin?”

“Sin.”

“If you prostrate with understanding, wishing to train humility and receive the Dhamma from monks—merit or sin?”

“Merit.”

“If you prostrate mindlessly, just following others—merit or sin?”

The girl paused and looked up.

“Still unclear, right?”

“Yes.” She nodded firmly.

“Then I ask you to observe your own mind. Is it clean or lowly? Is it merit or sin? Not just with prostrating, but with every action, word, and thought.”

“So, how much of your question did I answer?”

“One hundred percent!”

“Really? Okay. Thank you so much for the question.”

The children bowed and walked out of the pavilion.

The narrator, seizing the moment, reflected with admiration on the question and answer just shared.

This girl’s question wasn’t childish at all.

It was more mature than many adults' questions—insightful, nuanced, and sophisticated.

Her voice was clear, confident, courageous, and respectful. It was on point, meaningful, and thought-provoking—for both the speaker and the listeners.

While listening, she made eye contact and reacted, encouraging shared learning. She was an excellent listener and never missed a beat.

And most importantly, her smile and gaze uplifted and encouraged her classmates, too.

This made the speaker feel proud to be sitting there, at that moment, that day.

Truly joyful to see a young person with such a beautiful mind, who thinks of nature and wants to bring happiness to others—and who understands and appreciates the essence of Buddhism.

“It’s truly something to be proud of—to know that the Dhamma is reaching the younger generation. Don’t you agree?”

The author wasn’t asking anyone.

He turned to look at a marble statue placed behind him, and silently paid homage to the Buddha—the Supreme Teacher—with unwavering reverence.

Asrom Khantisarn A wooden house called “Kuti” June 15, 2023

By Phramaha Fookij Jutipanyo

Read the TH full version at: https://w3.do/Zp6prJLz

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The essence of meditation goes beyond seeking mere tranquility or external peace. What truly matters is how we perceive our emotions and thoughts as they arise within us. By cultivating awareness and understanding, we gain the power to liberate ourselves from the grasp of these thoughts and emotions, instead of becoming enslaved or overwhelmed by them.

If we remain unaware, these thoughts and emotions can become our masters, dictating our actions and responses. However, by recognizing that we have the capacity to be masters over them, we unlock the potential to utilize them as valuable tools. With this awareness, we can employ these thoughts to solve life's challenges, be it personal, professional, or moral dilemmas.

In the same vein, emotions, when unexamined, can become our rulers, leading us astray and causing suffering. For instance, sadness can ensnare us in its grip, making us believe that we must be sad to express love for someone. Similarly, anger can deceive us into acting out of righteousness, perpetuating negative cycles.

To break free from these emotional chains, we must observe and understand our emotions with mindfulness. Only then can we release ourselves from their dictates and avoid falling into a pit of depression or ongoing conflict. By practicing the art of "seeing" our thoughts and emotions, we gain control over their influence and prevent them from taking over our hearts.

The journey of meditation involves consistent practice in seeing and observing these mental and emotional phenomena. Through continuous effort, we strengthen our ability to discern and eventually reduce their hold on us. This newfound awareness empowers us to make choices that lead to inner peace and liberation from suffering.

In this process of mindful seeing, we learn that peace is not achieved by suppressing or restraining our thoughts and emotions. True peace comes from allowing them to arise and exist without judgment or oppression. By embracing this mindful perspective, we discover the profound truth that we can be free from the clutches of our thoughts and emotions. Meditation, therefore, becomes the gateway to inner peace and true liberation.

source : การค้นพบตัวเองที่สำคัญ revised by : chat gpt, google translated.

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背景：WhatsApp的号码验证与运营商合作关系

作为一款基于手机号码注册的即时通信应用，WhatsApp的账号验证严重依赖全球电信运营商提供的短信或电话服务。这意味着，当用户注册或在新设备登录WhatsApp时，WhatsApp通常会向用户的手机号码发送SMS短信验证码或发起语音电话验证。这一流程利用了传统电信网络的基础设施，例如通过SS7（信令系统7）协议在全球范围内路由短信和电话securityaffairs.com。换句话说，WhatsApp把初始账户验证的安全性建立在电信运营商网络之上。然而，这种依赖关系也带来了隐患：攻击者可以利用电信网络的漏洞来拦截验证码。例如，研究人员早在2016年就演示过利用SS7协议漏洞拦截WhatsApp和Telegram的验证短信，从而劫持用户账户的攻击方法securityaffairs.com。由于SS7协议在全球范围内连接各国运营商，一个运营商的安全缺陷或恶意行为都可能被不法分子利用来获取他网用户的短信验证码securityaffairs.com。正因如此，有安全专家指出，仅依赖短信验证不足以保障账户安全，WhatsApp等服务提供商需要考虑引入额外机制来核实用户身份securityaffairs.com。

除了技术漏洞，基于电信运营商的验证还受到各地政策和网络环境影响。WhatsApp必须与全球各地运营商“合作”，才能将验证码送达到用户手机。然而这种“合作”在某些国家可能并不顺畅，典型例子就是中国。在中国大陆，国际短信和跨境电话常受到严格管控，WhatsApp在发送验证码时可能遭遇拦截或延迟sohu.com。因此，理解WhatsApp在中国的特殊联网和验证要求，需要将其全球验证机制与中国的电信政策和网络审查环境联系起来。下文将深入探讨为什么在中国使用WhatsApp进行号码验证时，必须开启蜂窝移动数据，并分析其中的技术逻辑和政策因素。

中国环境下的特殊问题：为何必须开启蜂窝数据？

中国的网络审查与封锁： WhatsApp自2017年起就在中国大陆遭遇严格封锁。起初，WhatsApp在华的服务受到**“GFW”（防火长城）**的部分干扰——例如曾一度只能发送文本消息，语音、视频和图片消息被封锁theguardian.com。到2017年下半年，封锁升级，很多用户报告在中国完全无法使用WhatsApp收发任何消息theguardian.com。中国官方将WhatsApp与Facebook、Telegram等西方通信平台一同屏蔽，视作对国家网络主权的挑战theguardian.com。鉴于此，在中国境内直接访问WhatsApp的服务器（无论通过Wi-Fi还是本地互联网）都会被防火长城所阻断。即使用户收到了短信验证码，WhatsApp客户端也无法在没有特殊连接手段的情况下与服务器完成验证通信。因此，单纯依赖Wi-Fi等本地网络环境往往无法完成WhatsApp的注册或登陆。很多用户经验表明，在中国使用WhatsApp时需要借助VPN等工具绕过审查，同时尽可能避免走被审查的网络路径sohu.com。

强制Wi-Fi热点与连接策略： 除了国家级的封锁，用户所连接的局域网络也可能影响WhatsApp验证。许多公共Wi-Fi（如机场、商场）采取强制门户认证（captive portal），用户需登录认证后才能上网。对此，WhatsApp在客户端内置了检测机制，当发现设备连入这类强制Wi-Fi热点而无法访问互联网时，会提示用户忽略该Wi-Fi并改用移动数据faq.whatsapp.com。WhatsApp要求对此授予读取Wi-Fi状态的权限，以便在检测到被拦截时自动切换网络faq.whatsapp.com。对于中国用户来说，即便所连Wi-Fi本身联网正常，由于GFW的存在WhatsApp依然可能视之为“不通畅”的网络环境。这也是WhatsApp官方指南中强调：如果Wi-Fi网络无法连接WhatsApp服务，应直接切换到手机的移动数据网络faq.whatsapp.com。在中国，由于本地宽带网络对WhatsApp的封锁，蜂窝数据反而成为相对可靠的通道——尤其在搭配VPN时，可以避开本地ISP的审查策略，实现与WhatsApp服务器的通信sohu.com。

国际短信的运营商限制： 使用移动数据还有助于解决短信验证码接收难题。中国的手机运营商出于防垃圾短信和安全考虑，默认对国际短信和境外来电进行一定限制。许多中国用户发现，注册WhatsApp时迟迟收不到验证码短信，原因可能在于运营商将来自国外服务号码的短信拦截或过滤sohu.com。例如，中国移动默认关闭国际短信接收，需要用户主动发送短信指令申请开通sohu.com。具体而言，中国移动用户需发送文本“11111”到10086（或10085）来开通国际短信收发权限；中国联通和电信用户也被建议联系运营商确认未屏蔽国际短信sohu.com。若未进行这些设置，WhatsApp发送的验证码短信可能根本无法抵达用户手机。在这种情况下，WhatsApp提供的备用方案是语音电话验证，即通过国际电话拨打用户号码并播报验证码。然而境外来电在中国也可能遭到运营商的安全拦截，特别是当号码被认为可疑时zhuanlan.zhihu.com。因此，中国用户经常被建议开启手机的蜂窝数据和漫游功能，以提高验证码接收的成功率sohu.com。一方面，开启数据漫游意味着用户准备接受来自境外的通信（通常也包含短信/电话）；另一方面，在数据联网的状态下，WhatsApp可以尝试通过网络直接完成验证通信，从而减少对SMS的依赖。

移动数据的网络路径优势： 在实际案例中，一些中国WhatsApp用户报告仅在开启蜂窝数据的情况下才能完成验证。这可能归因于蜂窝网络和宽带网络在国际出口上的差异。中国移动、联通等运营商的移动数据可能走与宽带不同的网关路由，有时对跨境小流量的拦截相对宽松。此外，WhatsApp在移动数据环境中可以利用一些底层网络特性。例如，WhatsApp可能通过移动网络发起某些专用请求或利用运营商提供的号码归属地信息进行辅助验证（虽然具体实现未公开，但这是业界讨论的可能性）。总之，在中国特殊的网络环境下，开启蜂窝数据是确保WhatsApp验证流程顺利的重要一步。这一步不仅是为了基本的互联网连接，也是为了绕开种种对国际短信和应用数据的拦截限制，从而与WhatsApp的全球基础设施建立必要的通讯。

PDP Context与IMSI：移动网络验证的技术细节

要理解为什么移动数据对WhatsApp验证如此关键，有必要了解移动通信网络中的一些技术细节，包括PDP Context和IMSI的概念。

PDP Context（分组数据协议上下文）： 当手机通过蜂窝网络使用数据（如4G/5G上网）时，必须先在运营商核心网中建立一个PDP上下文。这实际上就是申请开启一个数据会话，运营商将为设备分配一个IP地址，并允许其通过移动核心网访问互联网datascientest.com。PDP上下文包含了一系列参数（例如APN接入点名称、QoS等级等），描述该数据会话的属性datascientest.comdatascientest.com。简单来说，激活蜂窝数据就意味着创建了PDP上下文，设备获得了移动网络网关分配的IP地址，可以收发数据包。对于WhatsApp验证而言，只有在建立数据连接后，手机才能直接与WhatsApp的服务器交换数据，例如提交验证码、完成加密密钥协商等。如果仅有Wi-Fi而蜂窝数据关闭，且Wi-Fi环境无法连通WhatsApp服务器，那么验证过程将陷入停滞。因此，在中国场景下，开启蜂窝数据（即建立PDP数据通路）是WhatsApp客户端尝试绕过Wi-Fi限制、直接通过移动网络进行验证通信的前提faq.whatsapp.comsohu.com。值得一提的是，PDP Context的建立也表明手机在运营商网络上处于活跃状态，这对于某些验证机制（比如后述的闪信/闪呼）来说至关重要。

IMSI与MSISDN： IMSI（国际移动用户标识）和MSISDN（移动用户号码，即手机号码）是运营商网络中两个密切相关但不同的标识。IMSI是存储在SIM卡上的一串唯一数字，用于在移动网络中标识用户身份netmanias.com。当手机接入网络时，它向运营商提供IMSI以进行鉴权，运营商据此知道“是哪张SIM”的请求netmanias.com。而MSISDN则是我们平常说的手机号，用于在语音通话和短信路由中定位用户，也存储在运营商的HLR/HSS数据库中netmanias.com。运营商通过IMSI<->MSISDN的对应关系，将来自全球的短信/电话正确路由到用户手机上。WhatsApp的验证短信或电话本质上就是通过目标号码(MSISDN)寻找所属运营商网络，由该网络根据IMSI定位用户终端。一般情况下，WhatsApp应用并不直接接触IMSI这种信息，因为IMSI属于运营商网络的内部标识。然而，IMSI的存在仍然对安全产生影响。例如，**SIM卡交换（SIM Swap）**欺诈发生时，攻击者获得了受害者号码的新SIM卡，新SIM卡会有不同的IMSI，但MSISDN保持原号码不变。运营商会将原号码映射到新的IMSI，这样验证码短信就发送到了攻击者手中的SIM上。对WhatsApp而言，除非有机制检测IMSI变动，否则无法察觉用户号码背后的SIM已被盗换。部分应用在检测到SIM变化时会提示用户重新验证，这需要读取设备的IMSI信息进行比对。然而，在现代智能手机中，获取IMSI通常需要特殊权限，WhatsApp并未明确说明它有此类检测。因此，从WhatsApp角度，IMSI更多是网络侧的概念，但它提醒我们：电信级身份验证依赖于SIM的有效性。只有当正确的IMSI在网络注册、并建立了PDP数据上下文时，WhatsApp的后台服务才能确认该SIM对应的号码目前“在线”，进而可靠地发送验证信号（短信或电话）到该设备。

移动网络的信号辅助验证： 有观点认为，一些OTT应用可能利用移动网络提供的附加服务来辅助号码验证。例如，某些运营商提供号码快速验证API，当应用检测到设备在移动数据网络中时，可以向特定地址发起请求，由运营商返回当前设备的号码信息（通常通过已经建立的PDP通道）。Google等公司在部分国家与运营商合作过类似服务，实现用户免输入验证码自动完成验证。但就WhatsApp而言，没有公开证据表明其使用了运营商提供的自动号码识别API。即便如此，WhatsApp鼓励用户保持移动网络在线的做法，隐含的意义之一可能是：当手机处于蜂窝网络且数据畅通时，验证码通过率和验证成功率都会显著提升。这既包括了物理层面短信、电话能否送达，也涵盖了数据层面应用和服务器能否互通。

Flash Call机制：WhatsApp验证的新方案

针对传统SMS验证码容易被拦截、延迟以及用户体验不佳的问题，WhatsApp近年来引入了一种Flash Call（闪呼）验证机制fossbytes.com。所谓闪呼，即应用在用户验证阶段向用户的手机号发起一个非常短暂的来电：用户无需真正接听，WhatsApp会自动结束这通电话，并根据通话记录来确认是否拨通fossbytes.com。

原理与流程： 当用户选择使用闪呼验证（目前主要在Android设备上可用），WhatsApp会请求权限访问用户的通话记录fossbytes.com。随后应用拨打用户的号码，一般是一个预先设定的特定号码或号码段。由于WhatsApp后台知道它拨出的号码及通话ID，只要该未接来电出现在用户手机的通话日志中，应用即可读取并匹配最后一通来电的号码是否符合验证要求，从而确认用户持有这个号码fossbytes.com。整个过程用户无需手动输入验证码，验证通话在数秒内完成。相比6位数字短信验证码需要用户在短信和应用间切换输入，闪呼方式更加快捷无缝fossbytes.com。

优缺点分析： 闪呼验证的优势在于速度快且避免了SMS可能的延迟或拦截。一些分析指出闪呼将成为取代SMS OTP（一次性密码）的新趋势，Juniper Research预测2022年用于验证的闪呼次数将从2021年的六千万猛增到五十亿次subex.comglobaltelcoconsult.com。对于WhatsApp这样全球用户庞大的应用，闪呼可以节约大量SMS网关费用，并绕开部分运营商对国际SMS的限制。然而，闪呼也有局限：fossbytes.com首先，iOS设备由于系统安全限制，应用无法访问通话记录，因此iPhone上无法使用闪呼验证fossbytes.com。这意味着苹果用户仍需使用传统短信验证码。其次，为实现自动匹配来电号码，用户必须授予读取通话记录的权限，这在隐私上引发一些担忧fossbytes.comfossbytes.com。WhatsApp声称不会将通话记录用于验证以外的用途，号码匹配也在本地完成fossbytes.com，但考虑到母公司Meta的隐私争议，部分用户依然顾虑。第三，闪呼验证依赖语音通话路线，同样受制于电信网络质量。如果用户所处网络无法接通国际来电（比如被运营商拦截境外短振铃电话），闪呼也无法成功。此外，从运营商角度看，闪呼绕过了A2P短信计费，可能侵蚀短信营收，一些运营商开始研究识别闪呼流量的策略wholesale.orange.com。总体而言，闪呼机制体现了WhatsApp希望减轻对短信依赖的努力，它在许多国家提升了验证体验，但在中国等特殊环境，其效果仍取决于本地语音网络的开放程度。值得注意的是，中国运营商对于境外电话，尤其是这种**“零响铃”未接来电**也有防范措施，中国电信和联通用户就被建议如需接收海外来电验证，应联系客服确保未拦截海外来电hqsmartcloud.com。因此，即便WhatsApp支持闪呼，中国用户若未开启移动语音漫游或运营商许可，仍然难以通过此途径完成验证。

与SIM Swap安全性的关系： 从安全角度看，闪呼并未实质提升抵御SIM交换攻击的能力。如果攻击者成功将受害者的号码转移至自己的SIM卡上（获取新IMSI），那么无论验证码以短信还是闪呼方式发送，都会到达攻击者设备。闪呼机制能防御的是部分恶意拦截短信的行为（如恶意网关或木马读取短信），但对社工换卡没有太大帮助。WhatsApp早已提供两步验证（即设置6位PIN码）供用户自行启用，以防号码被他人重新注册时需要额外密码。然而大量用户未开启该功能。因此，闪呼更多是从用户体验和成本出发的改良，而非针对高级别攻击的防护机制。正如前文所述，真正要防御SIM Swap和SS7漏洞等系统性风险，依赖运营商的号码验证本身就是薄弱环节，需要引入更高级的身份认证手段。

SIM卡交换攻击的风险与运营商信任问题

WhatsApp和Telegram一类基于手机号认证的应用普遍面临一个安全挑战：手机号码本身并非绝对安全的身份凭证。攻击者可以通过一系列手段取得用户的号码控制权，其中SIM交换（SIM Swap）是近年高发的欺诈手法。SIM Swap通常由不法分子冒充用户，诱骗或贿赂运营商客服将目标号码的服务转移到攻击者的新SIM卡上keepnetlabs.com。一旦成功，所有发往该号码的短信和电话都转由攻击者接收，原机主的SIM卡失效。对于依赖短信/电话验证的应用来说，这意味着攻击者可以轻易获取验证码，从而重置账户并登录。近年来全球SIM Swap案件呈上升趋势，许多在线服务的账号被此攻破rte.ie。

WhatsApp并非未知晓此风险。事实上，WhatsApp在其帮助中心和安全博客中多次提醒用户开启两步验证PIN，并强调绝不向他人透露短信验证码。然而，从系统设计上讲，WhatsApp仍将信任根基放在运营商发送到用户手机的那串数字验证码上。一旦运营商端的安全被绕过（无论是内部员工作恶、社工欺诈，还是SS7网络被黑客利用securityaffairs.com），WhatsApp本身无法辨别验证码接收者是否是真正的用户。正如安全研究所Positive Technologies指出的那样，目前主要的即时通讯服务（包括WhatsApp和Telegram）依赖SMS作为主要验证机制，这使得黑客能够通过攻击电信信令网络来接管用户账户securityaffairs.com。换言之，WhatsApp被迫信任每一个参与短信/电话路由的运营商，但这个信任链条上任何薄弱环节都可能遭到利用securityaffairs.com。例如，在SIM Swap攻击中，运营商本身成为被欺骗的对象；而在SS7定位拦截攻击中，全球互联的电信网成为攻击面。在中国的场景下，虽然主要威胁来自审查而非黑客，但本质上仍是WhatsApp无法完全掌控电信网络这一事实所导致的问题。

应对这些风险，WhatsApp和Telegram等采用了一些弥补措施。除了提供用户自行设定的二次密码，两者也开始探索设备多因子的概念（如后文Telegram部分所述，利用已有登录设备确认新登录）。然而，对绝大多数首次注册或更换设备的用户来说，传统的短信/电话验证仍是唯一途径。这就是为什么在高安全需求的行业中，SMS OTP正逐渐被视为不充分securityaffairs.com。监管机构和安全专家建议对涉敏感操作采用更强验证，如专用身份应用、硬件令牌或生物识别等。WhatsApp作为大众通信工具，目前平衡了易用性与安全性，但其依赖电信运营商的验证模式在像中国这样特殊的环境下，既遇到政策阻碍，也隐藏安全短板。这一点对于决策制定者评估国外通信应用在华风险时，是一个重要考量：任何全球运营商合作机制，在中国境内都可能因为**“最后一公里”由中国运营商执行**而受到影响。无论是被拦截信息还是可能的监控窃听，这些风险都源自于底层通信网的控制权不在应用服务商手中。

Telegram登录机制的比较

作为对比，Telegram的账号登录机制与WhatsApp类似，也以手机号码为主要身份标识，但在具体实现上有一些不同之处。

多设备登录与云端代码： Telegram从设计上支持多设备同时在线（手机、平板、PC等），并将聊天内容储存在云端。这带来的一个直接好处是：当用户在新设备上登录时，Telegram会优先通过已登录的其他设备发送登录验证码。例如，用户尝试在电脑上登录Telegram，Telegram会在用户手机上的Telegram应用里推送一条消息包含登录码，而不是立即发短信accountboy.comaccountboy.com。用户只需在新设备输入从老设备上收到的代码即可完成登录。这种机制确保了只要用户至少有一个设备在线，就几乎不需要依赖运营商短信。当然，如果用户当前只有一部新设备（例如换了手机且旧设备不上线），Telegram才会退而求其次，通过SMS发送验证码到手机号。同时，Telegram也允许用户选择语音电话获取验证码，类似于WhatsApp的语音验证。当用户完全无法收到SMS时（比如在中国这种场景），语音呼叫常常比短信更可靠seatuo.com。

两步验证密码： 与WhatsApp一样，Telegram提供可选的两步验证密码。当启用此功能后，即使拿到短信验证码，仍需输入用户设置的密码才能登录账户quora.com。这对抗SIM Swap等攻击提供了另一层防线。不过需要指出，如果用户忘记了设置的Telegram密码且没有设置信任邮箱，可能会永久失去账号访问，因此开启该功能在中国用户中接受度一般。

登录体验与安全性的取舍： Telegram的登录流程在用户体验上更加灵活。多设备下无需每次都收验证码，提高了便利性。但从安全角度看，这种“信任已有设备”的做法也有隐患：如果用户的某个设备落入他人之手并未及时登出，那么该人有可能利用该设备获取新的登录验证码。因此Telegram会在应用中提供管理活动会话的功能，用户可随时查看和撤销其它设备的登录状态telegram.org。总体而言，Telegram和WhatsApp在初始注册环节同样依赖短信/电话，在这一点上，中国的网络环境对两者影响相似：Telegram在中国同样被全面封锁，需要VPN才能使用，其短信验证码发送也会受到运营商限制。另外，Telegram曾在2015年因恐怖分子利用该平台传递信息而被中国当局重点关注并屏蔽，因此其国内可达性甚至比WhatsApp更低。许多中国用户实际使用Telegram时，通常绑定国外号码或通过海外SIM卡来收取验证码，以绕开国内运营商的限制。

差异总结： 简而言之，Telegram在登录验证机制上的主要优势在于已有会话协助和云端同步。这使得老用户换设备时不依赖国内短信通道即可登录（前提是原设备已登录并可访问）。WhatsApp直到最近才推出多设备功能，但其多设备模式采用的是端到端加密设备链路，需要主手机扫码授权，而非像Telegram那样用账号密码登录其它设备。因此WhatsApp仍然强绑定SIM卡设备，首次注册和更换手机号时逃不开运营商环节。安全方面，两者的SMS验证所面临的系统性风险（如SS7攻击、SIM Swap）并无本质区别，都必须仰仗运营商加强对核心网络的保护，以及用户自身启用附加验证措施securityaffairs.comkeepnetlabs.com。

结论

对于希望在中国使用WhatsApp的用户来说，“开启蜂窝数据”这一要求背后体现的是技术与政策交织的复杂现实。一方面，蜂窝数据承载着WhatsApp与其全球服务器通信的关键信道，在中国的受限网络中提供了相对可靠的出路faq.whatsapp.comsohu.com。另一方面，WhatsApp的号码验证机制深深植根于传统电信体系，必须经由全球运营商的“协作”才能完成用户身份确认securityaffairs.com。而在中国，这种协作受到防火长城和运营商政策的双重阻碍：国际短信被拦截、国际数据被阻断。为克服这些障碍，WhatsApp既采取了工程上的应对（如检测强制Wi-Fi并提示使用移动网络faq.whatsapp.com），也引入了诸如闪呼验证等新方案以减少对短信的依赖fossbytes.com。但从根本上说，只要注册流程离不开手机号码，这种与电信运营商的捆绑关系就无法割舍。由此带来的安全问题（如SIM Swap和信令网络漏洞）在全球范围内敲响警钟securityaffairs.comkeepnetlabs.com。

对于从事安全研究和政策评估的人士，这篇分析揭示了WhatsApp在中国遇到的典型困境：技术系统的全球化与监管环境的本地化冲突。WhatsApp全球统一的验证框架在中国水土不服，不得不通过额外的设置和手段来“曲线救国”。这既包括让用户切换网络、配置VPN等绕过审查，也包括思考未来是否有必要采用更安全独立的验证方式。相比之下，Telegram的机制给出了一种启示：灵活运用多设备和云服务，至少在一定程度上降低对单一短信渠道的依赖。然而，Telegram自身在中国的处境表明，再优雅的技术方案也难以直接对抗高强度的网络封锁。最终，无论是WhatsApp还是Telegram，要想在受限环境下可靠运作，都需要技术与政策的双管齐下：一方面提高验证与登录的安全性和多样性，另一方面寻求运营商和监管层面的理解与配合。

综上所述，WhatsApp要求中国用户开启蜂窝数据并非偶然的臆想，而是其全球运营商合作验证机制在中国受阻后的务实选择。这一要求折射出移动通信应用在跨境运营中面临的挑战，也提醒我们在设计安全策略时必须考虑底层依赖的信任假设。对于个人用户，最实际的建议是在使用此类应用时提前了解并遵循这些特殊设置（如开通国际短信、启用数据漫游），并善用应用自身的安全功能（如两步验证）来保护账户免遭社工和网络攻击keepnetlabs.com。对于监管和运营商，则有必要权衡安全审查与用户便利之间的平衡，在可控范围内为可信的全球服务留出技术通道。在全球通信愈加融合的时代，WhatsApp的中国验证问题或许只是一个缩影，背后涉及的既有网络安全考量，也有数字主权与国际合作的议题，值得持续深入研究和关注。

faq.whatsapp.comfossbytes.comtheguardian.comsecurityaffairs.comsecurityaffairs.comkeepnetlabs.comdatascientest.comnetmanias.comsohu.comsohu.com

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

“What is money?” sounds like a bit of a silly question. You’d probably hold up some cash or maybe flash your debit card. But I challenge you with this: imagine a 5-year-old asking you this question. How would you answer? If you showed them a $20 bill, they might respond with, “I know that’s a money, but what is it?” If you manage to explain that the bill is worth $20, they’re next question is going to be, “how many is your card?” How would you answer that? At some point you’d probably end up trying to distract them with something else while you worked to ignore the dread feeling that you should have those answers, but don’t. Never fear, for we will attempt to explain it in such a way that you’ll have an answer for 5, 15, 50, or 95-year-olds by the time we’re done this 4-part series!

Let’s start with an overview of the history of money. I highly recommend further reading on each of these; we’re going to skim most of them today. In the beginning, there was simple barter. If we each had something the other wanted, we could trade. But if the scale of what we want to trade is lopsided, say, chickens for a cow, or cows for a house, how do you make the trade work? Or what if you wanted to save up for a larger purchase? The answer is a placeholder; something that represents value in trade. An early example of this is the rai stones in Micronesia, which are essentially carved rocks. These worked well for store of value and medium of exchange, but not so much for unit of account. Precious metal coins arose later, with the most common being gold, silver, copper, and bronze. These worked well for all three of the major elements.

Store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account are the three major elements of any system of money. Store of value means it holds its value well over time. If you put a gold coin in a box in your house and retrieve it 10 years later, it’s still a gold coin and should be in the same physical condition as it was when stored. Medium of exchange means it’s widely accepted for trade. This one is a bit trickier, but if you’re the Roman Empire you can simply make everyone accept denarius. Unit of account means units should hold the same value everywhere they’re used. This is similarly tricky, but if you’re the Dutch East India Company you can simply make VOC-stamped coins global denominations.

Renaissance-era Italy is where modern banking was born. A key concept invented during this time was the double-entry ledger, or double-entry bookkeeping system. In short, every transaction is recorded, and every transaction has two entries: one with an amount leaving an account, and one with the same amount going into a different account. At the end of every block of time all accounts will have an aggregate balance of 0, with individual accounts either having a credit or debit. This system is still in use today, as well as the broad use of credit notes in place of coins or direct trade. Credit notes could be written against an account and given in trade, and later the receiver could take the note to the bank, who would then record the transaction as complete. If this sounds familiar, that’s because modern cheques are the same thing.

Modern money systems take these concepts a step further. Banks now maintain a whole network of double-entry ledgers and in most countries banks are no longer required to hold reserves matching their credit notes issued. Credit notes are also the total physical currency, also known as a fiat currency, or currency by authority or decree. This essentially means fiat money has no intrinsic value other than the promise of the issuing authority to treat it as valid and the willingness of others to accept it in trade. For an example of “willingness to accept in trade”, many retail stores in Canada will accept American dollars even though they’re not required to.

If you’re now thinking, “thanks for the history lesson, but what does this mean to me and the payment terminal in my store?”, the answer will come 2 weeks from now when we cover the Canadian dollar. In the meantime if you want to learn a bit more about the systems our modern money is based on, read up on the Roman Empire and their currency, as well as that of the Dutch East India Company. If you really want to dive deep, Renaissance Italy’s banking systems are also fascinating and a little closer to us on the timeline.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Ovaj post sam objavio 24.01.2024. godine na Redditu povodom tri decenije od uvođenja Novog dinara kao rešenja za hiperinflaciju u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji na šta su pojedini besni nokoineri sa te društvene mreže osuli drvlje i kamenje na mene. Od starih budalaština da je Bitkoin bezvredan, da nije oblik novca već finansijsko ulaganje, preko pravdanja svrhe inflacije, sve do potpune nemoći da se argumentima opovrgne nepobitna istina i pozivanja moderatora da me banuju. 🙃

Cena Bitkoina tada je bila oko $40.000. :)

Osim glavnog posta, ovde ću navesti i moje odgovore na neutemeljene i neinformisane tvrdnje besnih nokoinera. :) Da se sačuva od zaborava!

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Juče se navršilo 30 godina "Deda Avramove reforme".

Dan kada je rođen novi dinar, a Deda Avram sasekao hiperinflaciju

Kako nas je deda Avram spasio pre 30 godina: Neverovatno svedočenje tvorca „super dinara“ o jednoj od najgorih godina u istoriji Srbije

Dva jajeta – nedeljna profesorska plata: Kako se živelo u hiperinflaciji i šta je uradio Avramović

Vikipedija: Jugoslovenski dinar

„U julu '93. godine u Jugoslaviji nisi mogao skoro ništa da kupiš i niko za dinare nije hteo ništa da prodaje“, pisao je Avramović. Centralno-bankarska prevara se nastavlja jer je već do kraja 1995. dinar oslabio prema marki za 70% (1 dinar = 3.4 DM), a u decembru 2000. je taj kurs već bio 30.5 dinara za 1 DM (-96.7% od uvođenja novog dinara). To samo pokazuje da redenominacija valute tj. "brisanje nula" nije nikako čudo i viđano je puno puta kroz istoriju)

Ako je reformom iz januara '94 god. 1 novi dinar vredeo kao 1 nemačka marka, zatim od 2002. uveden evro čime je realna vrednost marke (samim tim i dinara) prepolovljena, a danas 1 EUR vredi oko 117 RSD, to znači da je "deda Avramov dinar" prema evru već obezvređen 59.91 puta za 30 godina. Dakle devalvacija dinara od 5991% od 1994. godine, a svakako još veća izražena kroz dobra i usluge jer su i nemačka marka do 2002. i evro od svog uvođenja iste godine prošli kroz sopstvenu inflaciju. Sam evro je izgubio oko 38% vrednosti od 2002. godine. Tako da se može reći da i "deda Avramov dinar" već uveliko prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju koja je samo razvučena na mnogo duži vremenski period (ne brinite - znam "zvaničnu" definiciju hiperinflacije - još jedan "gaslighting" centralno-bankarskog kartela da zabašuri šta se iza brda valja). Jer šta je inflacija od preko 5991% nego višedecenijska hiperinflacija?! Kako ne shvata gigantske razmere ove prevare?!

ISPRAVKA: Dinar nije nominalno izgubio 23400% (234x) vrednosti prema nemačkoj marki/evru od 1994. godine, već 59.91x odnosno 5991%. I danas na sajtu NBS postoji zvanični srednji kurs marke prema dinaru od 59,91:1. Realno, obezvređivanje dinara i evra prema robama i uslugama je puno veće, pošto su cene roba i usluga izražene u evrima ubrzo udvostručene u periodu nakon uvođenja evra. Hvala članu DejanJwtq na ispravci i izvinjenje svima od mene zbog greške.

Dafiment i Jugoskandik ("Dafina i Jezda") su bili samo državna konstrukcija da se izvuku devize iz ruku naivnih investitora da bi te devize nešto kasnije poslužile kao tobožnja rezerva za novi dinar. Ova gigantska prevara je unapred bila planirana, a Deda Avram iskorišćen kao marioneta tadašnjeg režima.

Inače lista država koje su izvršile redenominaciju valute kroz "brisanje nula" je poprilično dugačka i radi se o uobičajenoj pojavi kroz istoriju još od Haitija 1813. godine, a poslednji put su to uradile Sijera Leone i Kolumbija 2021. godine. Odavno je zaboravljeno da je (SR) Jugoslavija devedesetih to učinila još 1990. (10.000:1), 1992. (10:1), 1993. (1.000.000:1) i 1994. pre Avramovića (1.000.000.000∶1) ali je ovaj dinar trajao samo 23 dana. Tako da Deda Avram nije izmislio toplu vodu.

U SFRJ je izvršena jedna redenominacija 1966. godine u odnosu 10.000:1.

Wikipedia: Redenomination

Kome i dalje nije jasno zašto Bitkoin neka više puta pažljivo pročita ove tekstove iznad: oblik novca koji se ne može redenominirati, veoma lako konfiskovati i izdavati bez ikakve kontrole i pokrića. Potpuno nezavistan od kaprica korumpiranih i od realnosti otuđenih političara i centralnih bankara. Veoma je bitno da postoji ovakav oblik novca koji nije podložan ovakvim manipulacijama od strane ljudskog faktora i da postoji slobodan izbor da se taj oblik novca odabere za štednju i transakcije: barem od strane onih koji ga razumeju, ovi koji ne žele da razumeju neka i dalje pristaju da budu pljačkani - njima ionako nema pomoći.

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Komentari

brainzorz: Da, ali ako cemo realno bitkoin ne sluzi kao oblik novca, vec kao finansijsko ulaganje.

Bar je tako za nas i vecinu ljudi po svetu u praktičnom smislu. Jer 99.99% ljudi ili koliko vec prime platu u svojoj lokalnoj valuti, trose istu na redovan zivot, a ostatak (ako ga ima) investiraju. Slazem se da lokalne valute imaju svoj neki rizik, koji je veci u banana drzavi i da cuvanje svog kapitala u turbulentnom periodu u istoj je jako losa ideja.

Kada tako posmatras onda se mogu vuci pararele izmedju ostalih aseta, poput ETFova na primer i onda dolazimo do gomile problema sa bitkoinom.

@BTCSRB: Bitkoin se ne može porediti sa ETF-ovima pošto ETF-ove i ostale investicione instrumente ne možeš koristiti kao novac jer oni nisu "bearer assets" kao što jeste BTC. BTC eliminiše potpuno inflaciju (jer džabe ti keš u slamarici kao "bearer asset" kada je podložan inflaciji) i potrebu za posrednikom kod elektronskih plaćanja.

brainzorz: Ali on to eleminise samo u teoriji, sad da odem u pekaru, moram platiti u lokalnoj valuti, sad da li cu prodati bitkoin ili etf, prilicno je slicno.

Jedino sto mogu bitkoin zamenuti uzivo (ilegalno) sa nekim, pa tu jeste zamenjen posrednik. Ali provizije povlacenja su uglavnom zanemarljive, naspram ostalih parametara investicionog sredstva.

Neke stvari se mogu direktno platiti za bitkoin, ali to je ekstremno retko u stvarnom zivotu vecine ljudi.

@BTCSRB: Slažem se ali u uslovima hiperinflacije i visoke inflacije kakvu danas imamo u Argentini, Venecueli, Zimbabveu, Libanu, Turskoj itd. sve više ljudi direktno vrši transakcije u kriptovalutama, naročito "stablecoinima" poput USDT Tethera. Priznajem da u tim transakcijama BTC zaostaje upravo zbog volatilnosti ali je vršenje brzih i jeftinih transakcija svakako moguće putem Lightning mreže. Sve te lokalne valute su izgubile značajnu vrednost i prema USDT i prema BTC-u, odnosno BTC konstantno probija rekordnu vrednost kada se denominuje u tim valutama. I u tim državama je adopcija kriptovaluta najraširenija.

HunterVD: Kako valuta u koju se upumpavaju nepostojeci dolari i evri moze biti realna i dobra. A USDT tek da ne spominjem. Mozes uvek revi jer joj ljudi veruju, al ta vera u nesto ide samo do odredjenog nivoa.

@BTCSRB: Godinama kupujem BTC od svake plate, praktično štedim u njemu i kupovna moć mi vremenom raste denominirana u evrima i dinarima. To isto rade na desetine hiljada ljudi širom sveta. Kako su ti realni dinari i evri koje ubacujem svakog meseca koje sam zaradio od svog realnog rada - "nepostojeći"?

Kako dolari i evri koji se štampaju ni iz čega mogu biti realni i dobri kao valuta?

HunterVD: Pa eto bas to. Ulaze se nepostojeci novac u BTC i onda se prica o nekoj novoj valuti. Nije sija nego vrat, BTC ima jedino vrednost dok se upumpava taj lazni novac u njega. FIAT novac kolko tolko nastaje radom i proizvodnjom dobara, ne sav FIAT novac al neki deo, dok se BTC zasniva skroz na upumpavanje tog istog FIAT novca i dobroj volji i zeljama da magicne brojke idu navise.

@BTCSRB: Itekako je moguće izraziti cenu svih ostalih dobara i usluga kroz BTC i postojanje i vrednost BTC-a uopšte ne zavisi od fiat novca. Štaviše, gotova sva dobra i usluge dugoročno postaju jeftiniji kada se mere kroz BTC. Sutra kada bi fiat novac nestao BTC bi i dalje imao vrednost, čak i veću nego danas.

https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/

HunterVD: Naravno da je moguce izraziti cene svakodnevnih proizvoda u BTCu. Cene svakodnevnih proizvoda je moguce izraziti u cemu god pozelis, evo npr broj radnih sati koji je potreban da se proizvede taj proizvod i onda se uporedi sa cenom radnih sati i cene na polici, mozes ga uracunavati i u dobrima , jedan iphone kosta tolko i tolko KG juneceg mesa..... nista cudno. Takodje cene proizvoda pokazuju pad u odnosu sa BTCom jer je BTC masivno porastao u poslednjih 5-6 godina. Sta ce biti kad BTC stagnira ili pada kako se u tom periodu odnose cene, a da BTC je store of value i namenjen je samo da se cuva izvinte molim vas moja greska. Ni druge kripto valute nisu nista bolje. Ljudi koji su zaradili na BTCu svaka cast eto imali su pameti i srece , al sad kako je cena sve veca, inflacija sve losija i kamatne stope sve vise postace sve teze i teze dolaziti do novca a kamo li intvestirati ga u nesto rizicno ko kripto valute tako da ce i BTC sve manje rasti sto zbog velicine market cap-a sto zbog toga sto ljudi i firme imaju sve manje novca za ulagati. Dal ce btc moci da se uzbori sa inflacijom i losim uslovima to tek treba da se vidi. Tako da videcemo u narednom periodu koliko ce se ta priva o BTC kao store of value i nacinu odbrane od inflacije obistiniti. Licno ne verujem da ce BTC ikad biti zvanicno sredstvo placanja.

@BTCSRB: Cena svega se može izraziti kroz sve ostalo ali šta od svega toga najbolje vrši funkciju novca? BTC bolje vrši funkciju novca u većini okolnosti od gotovo svih stvari.

Šta će biti sa BTC videće se i oni koji veruju u njega će biti najzaslužniji za njegov uspeh jer su obezbeđivali potražnju kada su kola išla nizbrdo i za to biti asimetrično nagrađeni, ali će i puno izgubiti ako se pokaže da nisu u pravu. Pukovnici ili pokojnici. Po meni je to cilj zbog koga vredi rizikovati, pa i bankrotirati a cilj je da se centralno-bankarski kartel učini manje relevantnim.

Znaš i sam da fiat sistem ne može da preživi i izbegne imploziju bez konstantnog uvećanja mase novca u opticaju i zato se uopšte ne plašim za BTC i spavam mirno. BTC sigurno neće rasti istom brzinom kao prvih 15 godina ali moje očekivanje je svakako ubedljivo nadmašivanje svetske inflacije i obezvređivanja. Ne vidim kako sistem može da opstane bez novog QE kada god se on desi, u suprotnom imamo deflatornu spiralu.

Ne mora da bude zvanično sredstvo plaćanja, dovoljno da meni kao pojedincu služi za to dok god ima ljudi koji ga prihvataju, a ima ih puno. I da niko u tome ne može da nas spreči.

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loldurrr: Ali i BTC je postao, u neku ruku, berzanska roba. Imaš market cap izražen u dolarima, koji je danas, npr. 2 triliona $, za mjesec dana 500 milijardi. Isto kao i dolar, samo volatilnije. Zato i kažem, da je to sve rezultat ponude i tražnje. Hipotetički, ja da imam milion BTC i odlučim to danas prodati, enormno ću oboriti cenu BTC. Ako je to valuta nezavisna od vanjskih uticaja - zašto će pasti toliko, kada imamo ograničenu količinu BTC-a. Svima je i dalje u podsvesti vrednost BTC izražena u USD, tako da je to isto kao i dinar, franak, akcija CocaCola i sl. Bar za sada...

A mogućnosti za korištenje BTC za robna plaćanja su mizerna. Ima li na vidiku mogućnosti da se vrednost nafte počne izražavati u BTC?

@BTCSRB: Meriti Bitkoin direktno prema robama i uslugama je itekako moguće i kada ga tako meriš, a ne prema fiat novcu, dugoročno cene gotovo svih roba i usluga padaju prema Bitkoinu. Cene svega izražene kroz BTC neće nestati ni u slučaju nestanka fiat novca, dolar sutra da prestane da postoji nikoga ne sprečava da izražava cene svega kroz BTC. Dolar i ostale valute nisu potrebni Bitkoinu.

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Unlikely-Put-5524: Imam samo jedno pitanje za one "koji vide iza svega" i pronikli su bankarsku prevare da porobi čovečanstvo... Kako ne postoji mogućnost da je BTC i kripto nastao iz iste kuhinje i predstavlja ultimativni način za porobljavanje?

2% novčanika poseduje 95% svog BTC-a koji nije izgubljen. Znači da centralizacija može biti maksimalna...

@BTCSRB: Količina BTC-a u posedu ne daje kontrolu nad pravilima protokola i većinski vlasnici ne mogu da štampaju nove novčiće i tako uvećaju konačnu količinu u opticaju. Mogu samo da kratkoročno obore cenu i tako samo ostanu sa manje BTC-a koji imaju pošto će tržište vremenom apsorbovati te dampovane koine.

Unlikely-Put-5524: A mogu i dugoročno da obore cenu. Hajde da kažemo da imaš sada 10 BTC-a gde svaki vredi 40k

Veliki dumpu-ju ceo svoj bag u kontinutitetu kao što sad radi GS i posle godinu dana tvoj BTC sad vredi 4k, zašto misliš da bi ljudi nastavili da ga drže? Posebno ako znamo da ga 97% kupuje da bi zaradili, a ne zato što žele da ga koriste kao sredstvo plaćanja.

Ja bih ore BTC gledao kao commodity, jer sa svojim deflatornim svojstvima ne može biti valuta za plaćanje.

Takođe postoji i doomsday scenario gde jednostavno mogu svi da se dogovore da je ilegalan i to je onda to. Ovo mi deluje kao gotovo neverovatno, ali po meni je bilo koji maksimalizam potpuno detinjasto razmišljanje.

@BTCSRB: Pa padao je toliko puta za preko 70% i uvek se vraćao jer si uvek imao ljude koji su bili spremni da ga kupuju po bilo kojoj ceni, uključujući i mene. Pošto se ne može štampati, na kraju će ovi prodavci ostati bez BTC-a za prodaju i tržište apsorbovati čak i njihov "sell pressure". A ovi veliki koji drže tolike količine itekako dobro znaju vrednost toga što poseduju i nema smisla da svu količinu koju drže prodaju za inflatorni novac - prodavaće da bi finansirali svoj životni stil ili investiraju u biznise ili će ga koristiti kao kolateral za fiat pozajmice - ako raspolažu tolikim količinama i mogu da kontrolišu tržište nemaju strah da će im kolateral biti likvidiran.

Većina ljudi su fiat maksimalisti samim tim što su 100% u fiat novcu pa ne razmišljaju u pravcu doomsday scenarija kakav je upravo bila hiperinflacija devedesetih.

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Romeo_y_Cohiba: Niko ti ne brani da ulažeš u bitcoin pod uslovom da znaš da je rizičniji od gotovog novca, štednje po viđenju, oročene štednje, obveznica, nekretnina, akcija, raznoraznih etfova, private equitya i derivata.

Drugim rečima ako ti je ok da danas uložiš 1000e, da za nedelju dana to vredi 500e, za mesec 1500 a za pola godina 300e ili 0 samo napred. Većini ljudi to nije ok.

Razlog zašto pamtimo Avrama je jer njegov dinar i dan danas koristimo. Prethodne uzastopne reforme nisu uspele kao što si i sam primetio.

Takođe, nije u pitanju "centralno-bankarska" prevara jer se ništa od toga ne bi desilo da ovom "odozgo" nisu zatrebale pare za finansiranje izvesnih stvari.

I dan danas, izvesni političar(i) izađu na TV i kažu da su "našli" novac za neki svoj genijalni plan i ljudi to puše. To u prevodu najčešće znači da će da nagna centralnu banku da mu doštampa novca i to nema veze sa bankama nego politikom..

@BTCSRB: Za investicione instrumente koje si naveo treba videti koliko su uspešno nadvladavali inflaciju prethodnih decenija i da li su očuvali kupovnu moć. Za štednju u banci i obveznice se i iz daleka vidi da nisu. US obveznice su u septembru imale drawdown od 48% od ATH iz 2020, a kao važe sa sigurnu investiciju. Čak i u momentu dospeća posle 10-30 godina jako teško čuvaju vrednost od inflacije.

A sada se zapitaj: da li zaista misliš da političari kontrolišu banke i bankare ili je možda obrnuto? Nisu političari ti koji su vlasnici krupnog kapitala.

Romeo_y_Cohiba: Ne investiraju svi na 10-30 godina za potrebe penzije. To je samo jedan od mnogo vidova i razloga investiranja. Nadvladavanje inflacije je isto tako samo jedan od kriterijuma. Samo pogledaš u šta jedan penzioni fond u SAD-u investira(hint: nije btc i nisu samo akcije). Npr. neki penzioni fondovi su od skoro počeli da investiraju u private equity ali isključivo do 15% veličine portfolija. Počeće i sa kriptom u nekom trenutku ali mogu da potpišem da će biti u još manjem procentu nego PE. Niko nije blesav da grune teško stečeni novac u nešto tako rizično osim u jako malim iznosima.

Ne znam ko koga kontroliše ali Avram je bio daleko manji baja od Slobe 90ih i pitao se za stvari samo u meri koliko mu je bio dozvoljeno da se pita. Ratovanje košta i finansira se štampanjem novca, nisu to neke neshvatljive stvari. Da ne pričam da smo bili pod apsolutnim sankcijama celog sveta.

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Virtual_Plenty_6047: Npr jedan od velikih uspeha Japana od pre par decenija je zahvaljujući devalvaciji njihove valute, pa samim tim izvoz im je bio relativno jeftin. Naš dinar je jak, i to odgovara uvozničkom lobiju.

Nažalost mi ionako ništa ne proizvodimo tako da ne verujem da bi nešto pomoglo ako bi devalvirali dinar. Al svakako ovo je jedna viša ekonomija za koju naši političari nisu dorasli.

@BTCSRB: Gde je običan čovek u tom velikom japanskom uspehu? Postali su zemlja starih i nesrećnih mladih ljudi koji ne mogu da pobegnu iz "hamster wheel-a". Imaju "debt to GDP" od preko 260%. Taj dug nikada neće vratiti, a uz to će povući u ambis pola sveta jer najveći držaoci američkog duga - 14.5%. Spolja gladac, iznutra jadac. Iako je malo degutantno da mi iz Srbije komentarišemo Japance, opet pitam: gde je prosečan Japanac u celoj ovoj igri?

Why Japan Is Facing a Financial Disaster

Preporučujem da pogledate dokumentarac "Princes of the Yen | The Hidden Power of Central Banks" snimljenom po istoimenoj knjizi profesora Riharda Vernera koji je otac kvantitativnog popuštanja (quantitative easing) i ekspert za japansku ekonomiju i bankarski sistem.

Virtual_Plenty_6047: Zato sam rekao od pre nekoliko decenija. Jer su do pre nekih 30 godina bili 50 godina ispred celog sveta, sad su 20 godina iza naprednog sveta. Japanci su svako specifični. Poenta mog komentara da postoji razlog za neke zemlje da oslabe svoju valutu, i može itekako dobro da radi ako se radi u sinergiji sa nekim drugim ekonomskim merama. Tako da odgovor na to opet pitam, ne znam gde je prosečni Japanac, uskoro tamo trebam da idem pa ću ti reći. :'D

Odgledao sam ja ovaj dokumentarac odavno, super je. Pročitao mnoge knjige, a ponajviše od Austrijske ekonomske škole gde su pojedinci (Hayek) bili prvi koji su zagovarali novu decentralizovanu valutu, bili su u toj školi mnogi koji su prvi pričali o problemu inflacije i šta je tačno inflacija, ali su bili i za kapitalizam. Ali ovo je zaista jedna visoka ekonomija, videćeš da nije baš sve tako jednostavno kao što misliš.

Malo si previše u kriptovalutama pa gledaš na sve drugo u ekonomiji sa prekorom, pogotovu na kapitalizam. Evo i ja sam sam dobro investiran u kripto (uglavnom u BTC) pa sam itekako svestan da sve to može na kraju da bude potpuna pizdarija.

p.s. Knjiga za preporuku: 23 stvari koje vam ne kazu o kapitalizmu

@BTCSRB: Nisam u kriptovalutama nego isključivo u BTC.

Nisam ja protiv kapitalizma samo što nije pravi kapitalizam kada ne postoji slobodno tržište novca, pa samim tim ne postoji uopšte slobodno tržište koliko god se činilo tako. Kada su ekonomski subjekti prisiljeni da koriste određeni oblik novca, a monetarna politika se centralno planira - po meni tu nema slobodnog tržišta niti kapitalizma. Npr. formiranje cene Bitkoina i transakcionih naknada je čisto slobodno tržište jer tu nema "bailout-a", a BTC mining industrija je pravi primer slobodnog tržišta u kapitalizmu. Čista ponuda i potražnja bez intervencionizma. Ako si neprofitabilan nema ti spasa i bankrotiraćeš i nema nikoga ko će ti priteći u pomoć. Niko nije "too big to fail".

Znam da sam se ovde usredsredio usko na jednu industriju ali se može primeniti na celokupnu ekonomiju. Države i centralne banke su suvišne i apsolutno pokvare sve čega se dotaknu pa će u slučaju potpune pizdarije odgovornost biti na njima, a ne na Bitkoinu i njegovim držaocima.

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kutija_keksa: Evo zašto btc nije pogodan kao valuta:

-Volatilna vrednost. Vrednost btc se menja i do 200% godišnje, dok dolar ne trpi inflaciju vecu od 10% godišnje (mada je u redovnim uslovima tipa 3%). Čak i dinar, ako gledaš realnu kupovnu moć u prodavnici nema volatilnost preko 30% na godišnjem nivou (jedno 7 puta nižu od BTC) Ako danas kupim BTC u vrednosti od 15 USD ne znam da li ću sutra moći da kupim 10 ili 20 USD za isti taj BTC.

-„Gas fees” koji se plaćaju na svaku transakciju, u poređenjusa kešom koji nema takvih problema.

-Spor transfer novca. Arhitektura blockchaina ne dozvoljava mreži da procesuira više od 10 transakcija po sekundi, što značida na transakciju možete čekati i po nekoloo sati, u poređenju sa kešom (bez odugovlačenja) ili debitnim karticama (10 sekundi do 10 minuta). Visa i MasterCard procesuiraju hiljadu puta više transakcija po sekundi.

-Retko ko eksplicitno prima BTC, tako da ćete plaćati menjačnici na kursu u oba smera, i pritom čekati menjačnicu.

-Podložan je manipulacijama velikih igrača poput Ilona Maska i velikih banki koje su u zadnjih pet godina debelo uložile u kripto. Fiat je na milosti države i njenih građana, dok je BTC na milost privatnih investitora. Kome verujete više?

-SVE BTC transakcije su jsvne, ako neko zna koji novčanik je vaš lako zna i koliko para ste kada slali kome, dok fizičke novčanice nemaju taj problem.

-Vrednost i upotreljivost BTC ne garantuje niko, dok vrednost i upotrebljivost fiat valute barem donekle garantuje država. Na primer, Srbija garantuje da je dinar upotrebljiv jer zahteva da vodu, struju, poreze, namete i takse plaćaš u dinarima, a i javni sektor (10% čitavog stanovništva) isplaćuje isključivo u dinarima.

OP očigledno ima jako ostrašćenu ideološku perspektivu... Ja nisam stručnjak, ali je moj otac pisao naučne radove o blockchainu dok je bio na doktorskim studijama, još kad je pomisao o BTC vrednijem od sto dolada bila smešna, tako da znam nešto malo kroz priče sa njim. Uostalom, sve o čemu pričam lako je proveriti pomoću javnih podataka. Ono što OP piše je jednim delom tačno, ali su iznete samo one informacije koje idu u prilog BTC.

Kripto kao pobuna protiv fiata, centralnih banaka i vlada je imao ideološke korene kod anarhista na internetu devedestih, međutim od njihovih belih papira i špekulacija dobili smo nešto što je kao valuta beskorisno. BTC može biti investicija, ako su ljudi iskreni sa sobom, ali ideja o valuti je prevaziđena. Ako i neka kripto valuta drži do toga onda je to Monero koji bar ima anonimnost.

@BTCSRB: Ne ulazeći u sve iznete navode taksativno, ipak moram da prokomentarišem neke od nepreciznih ili netačnih navoda.

Transakcione naknade kod Bitkoina se ne zovu "gas fees" već "transaction fees". Kod keša nema takvih problema ali ga ne možete poslati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika. To mora da ima svoju cenu pošto BTC majneri moraju da imaju neki podsticaj da uključe nečiju transakciju u blok koji je ograničene veličine. BTC "fee market" je najslobodnije tržište na svetu. Fiat novac nemate mogućnost da pošaljete na daljinu bez posrednika koji takođe naplaćuje nekada dosta skupe naknade.

Besmisleno je porediti blokčejn kao "settlement layer" sa Visom i Mastercardom koje ne služe za finalno poravnanje. Glavni Bitkoin blokčejn se može pre uporediti s SWIFT-om ili FedWire-om kod kojih je jednom poravnata transakcija nepovratna, a Mastercard/Visa sa BTC "Lightning Network-om" koji služi za brza i jeftina plaćanja. Otac je trebalo da Vas nauči o Lightning mreži, kako funkcioniše i da je sposobna da procesuira više miliona transakcija u sekundi. Lightning mreža takođe nudi veći nivo privatnosti od glavnog blokčejna ali puno manju sigurnost.

Ne bih se složio da je fiat na milosti isključivo države i građana, samo ću spomenuti Crnu sredu iz septembra 1992. godine i spekulativni napad na britansku funtu.

BTC transakcije su javne ali su pseudonimne što znači da je jako teško utvrditi identitet ukoliko adresa nije povezana sa identitetom korisnika. Generisanje BTC adrese ne zahteva nikakvu identifikaciju ("krvnu sliku") za razliku od otvaranja bankovnog računa. Može se generisati neograničen broj adresa i na razne načine prekinuti i zamaskirati veza transakcija između njih radi očuvanja privatnosti. Ponovo, fizičke novčanice ne možemo slati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika, podložne su konfiskaciji, uništenju i obezvređivanju.

Upotrebljivost Bitkoina garantuje "open source" kod, energija, matematika i kriptografija. To su mnogo jače garancije nego obećanja bilo koje države koja su toliko puta u istoriji izigrale poverenje sopstvenog stanovništva - poput Jugoslavije devedesetih.

Ja sam BTC spomenuo kao potencijalno rešenje za (hiper)inflaciju tek u kraćem delu na kraju teksta, a od Vas i od ostalih komentatora sam dobio nesrazmeran odgovor usmeren na Bitkoin, a puno manje usmeren na navode iz najvećeg dela posta.

Tako ste i vi izneli isključivo informacije koje ne idu u prilog BTC-a, a potpuno ignorisali sve očigledne nedostatke fiat novca (kako u fizičkom, tako i u digitalnom obliku) koji su se i ispoljili tokom hiperinflacije devedesetih, a ispoljavaju se i dan-danas.

Svako dobro!

kutija_keksa: Zato su i „Gas fees” pod navodnicima.

Ne vidim zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima.

Ali, čak i da je dobro imati slobodno tržište, morate primetiti da BTC kopanje nije tako slobodno. Postojanje ASIC mašina znači da se kopanje prevashodno isplati velikim igračima (ne mislim na likove sa 3 riser kartice u PC, nego na kineze sa skladištima teških preko milion u opremi). Takođe, te velike operacije organi vlasti mogu zaustaviti kad im se prohte (Kina).

Jako je teško izvući BTC anonimno bez gubitka kod menjača -- pojedinca ili non KYC institucije.

Što se upotrebljivosti BTC tiče, šta meni garantuje da ću imati na šta da potrošim BTC? To je ključno pitanje. A kasa Jugoslovenski fiat nije bio upotebljiv, vidim da Nemački jeste. Isto tako, mislim da će USD biti upotrebljiv dugo, a kada USD bude neupotrebljiv društvo će ionako biti u apokalipsi gde papir nije važan koliko i hrana, utočište, voda, radio, municija, lekovi i vatreno oružje.

Naravno da iznosim samo informacije koje proizilaze iz nedostataka, to je balans postu i komentarima. Da su ljudi samo blatili kripto moj komentar bi mnogo više ličio na originalni post nego na moj prošli komentar. Ja se sa mnogim tvrdnjama u postu slažem delimično ili potpuno, samo želim da pružim kontekst za tumačenje toga.

Ideološki su mi Cryptopunks potpuno zanimljivi, ali cinizam je opravdan kada se u obzir uzme priča. Ljudi su želeli da se odupru bankama, vladama, kontroli i prismotri. Izmislili su tehnologiju. Počeli su da koriste i popularizuju tu tehnologiju. U prostor su ušle banke i vlade, kupovanjem, prodajom i praćenjem samog tržišta (danas sve velike menjačnice imaju KYC procedure). Kao u matriksu, kontrolisana opozicija. Ok, ovo je lična teorija zavere u koju ni ja ne verujem u potpunosti.

Ako govorimo o crypto kao valuti mislim da je XMR mnogo bolja VALUTA od BTC, dok je mnogo gora investicija. Jednostavno se slažem sa političkim i ideološkim ciljevima pionira kripto valuta, ali smatram da su oni ogromnim delom iznevereni zbog ulaska banaka i država u celu priču, te njihova stara rešenja više ne rešavaju originalne probleme.

@BTCSRB: BTC kao neutralni novac je za svakoga, pa i za bankare i države. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga kupe na tržištu i stave ga u kakav god instrument, pa i ETF. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga konfiskuju od onih koji nisu dobro obezbedili svoje ključeve. Države su regulisale ono što su mogle, poput menjačnica, kroz AML/KYC procedure ali kakve to veze ima sa BTC-om? Na protokol kao protokol nisu mogle da utiču.

Ko želi i dalje može koristiti BTC kako je i prvobitno predviđeno - za p2p transakcije i skladištenje vrednosti u "self custody-u". Bitkoin je i dalje "bearer asset" otporan na cenzuru i konfiskaciju. Ne vidim da je taj pravac promenjen samo zato što su ušle banke i države. Možda nije u duhu Bitkoina da ga kupuju fondovi pa ga prodaju upakovanog u ETF. Najmanje je u duhu bitkoina da se nekome zabrani da ga kupuje.

Kako to mislite "ne vidite zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima? Na decentralizaciji mininga se radi (StratumV2 protkol, Ocean pool...), a kineski primer je samo pokazatelj koliko je otporno: nakon zabrane raširilo se dodatno po svetu, a u Kini se i dalje nalazi 21% hešrejta. Majneri imaju veoma male margine profita zbog same prirode rudarenja i halvinga pa će bilo kakav "fck around" poput cenzure transakcija verovatno značiti bankrot.

Možemo do sutra pričati o XMR vs BTC i navešću puno razloga zašto XMR ne može i neće zaživeti kao novac, a pre svega je manjak decentralizacije (neograničena veličina blokčejna) i otpornost na državni napad - sve što Bitkoin ima. Kada je novac u pitanju pobednik nosi sve i tu je Monero već izgubio, dok će BTC poboljšanu privatnost obezbediti na ostalim nivoima, sidechainovima itd (Lightning, Liquid, Cashu, Fedimint, Ark i ko zna šta sve što još i ne postoji - nivo developmenta u Bitkoin prostoru je ogroman).

Dolar će uvek u nekom obliku biti upotrebljiv ali ne znači da će zauvek ostati svetska rezervna valuta, kao što i danas postoji funta ali odavno nije više ono što je bila na vrhuncu Britanske imperije.

kutija_keksa: Pa ti protokoli sprečavaju pljude da anonimno kupe BTC.

Mislim, BTC realno ima neku primenu, ali ja ga danas npr. imam čisto kao neku malu investicijicu, i to još od doba kad je kopanje sa 2 grafičke u kućnom PC bilo isplativo po skupoj struji. Ali BTC prosto nije dobra alternativa fizičkom novcu na nivou države zbog volatilnosti i manjka kontrole. Jedna ogromna poluga države je puštanje u promet novog novca, i tako se kontroliše inflacija, pored menjanja kamatnih stopa. Bez mogućnosti štampe gubi se i taj faktor kontrole. A inflacija od 2-3% godišnje je zdrava, dok je za ekonomiju deflacija (kojoj je BTC bar delimično sklon) haos, jer smanjuje ekonomsku aktivnost i investicije...

Što se tiče državnog napada na XMR, misliš na to kako jedna država može da realistično sprovede 51% napad?

XMR nije vrhovna valuta ali meni se sviđa kako za njega nema ASIC mašina, kako je anoniman u smislu da ne možeš lako da provališ ko kome koliko i kada šalje šta... Mislim da će XMR sigurno u toj privacy niši zameniti neka druga valuta kroz 10-15 godina koja ima bolji algoritam i tehnologiju...

Dobra dosetka za veličinu blockchaina, ali ona je trenutno 160GB cela / 50 GB pruned, tako nešto. Sve dok nije preko 10TB (100x) veća može je pohraniti najveći hard disk namenjen „običnim ljudima”, a kad se dođe do tad verovatno će i cene tih diskova biti pristupačnije nego danas. Sa druge strane, agresivan pruning je takođe opcija. A da ne govorimo o sidechainovima koji takođe postoje za XMR.

Da, to za dolar je i moja poenta, nekako će biti upotrebljiv uvek, dok je kripto neupotrebljiv bez neta, a i nema mnogo šta da se kupi kriptom u poređenju sa fiatom. I

@BTCSRB: Ima bezbroj načina da se nabavi non-KYC Bitkoin: coinjoin, coinmixing, rudarenje u non-KYC pulu, nabavka nekog drugog kripta putem KYC menjačnice pa "trustless atomic swap" za BTC, nabavka KYC BTC-a putem Lightning-a pa "submarine swap" on-chain, zatim nabavka bilo kog KYC kripta ili Lightning ili on-chain BTC-a pa swap na sidechain Liquid BTC gde su transakcije tajne slično XMR-u i nazad swap na on-chain. Naravno i stara narodska razmena na ulici. XMR se isto može koristiti za svrhu nabavke non-KYC Bitkoina. U svim ovim slučajevima se adrese koje su krajnje destinacije tih sredstava ne mogu ili jako teško povezati sa KYC identitetom korisnika. Više na: kycnot.me

Diskusija o tome da li je zdrava i potrebna inflacija i da li je uopšte potreban državni intervencionizam u ekonomiji je stara diskusija između Kejnzijanske i Austrijske ekonomske škole. Po meni svaka inflacija je pljačka. Da ne govorimo da centralni bankari ne snose nikakvu odgovornost za gubitak kontrole nad inflacijom koji se meri u stotinama procenata "omaška" jer kada je ciljana inflacija 2%, a imamo inflaciju od 10% to je onda promašaj od 500%. A svi vodeći centralni bankari su i dalje na svojim funkcijama od početka inflacije negde 2020. godine iako su izneverili sva očekivanja. Nisu izabrani od strane naroda i nemoguće ih je smeniti od strane naroda, a utiču na živote svih!

Usled tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti, prirodno stanje slobodnog tržišta je pad cena, a ne njihov konstantan rast kroz inflaciju. Ne postoji nikakva "poželjna" ili "neophodna" inflacija, svaka "ciljana" inflacija je pljačka koji onemogućava populaciju da uživa u plodovima sopstvene produktivnosti u obliku nižih cena svih roba i usluga. Bitkoin zbog svoje fiksne ponude novca u opticaju (21 milion novčića = apsolutna digitalna oskudnost) nameće ovu disciplinu slobodnog tržišta i tehnološkog napretka. Dok je postojeći dužnički fiat sistem dizajniran da krade plodove produktivnosti, Bitkoin omogućava populaciji da ih zadrži u obliku nižih cena.

Kada nema rasta cena, inflacija je 0% i cene su stabilne. Krađa i tada postoji, jer cene prirodno padaju zbog povećanja efikasnosti proizvodnje/usluga, gde bi se tada veca količina robe/usluga, takmičila za istu (fiksnu) količinu novča od 21M BTC-a.

Kakav je ishod ove diskusije nije bitno, bitno je da sada svako ima slobodu izbora kakav novac želi da koristi a ne da bude prisiljen da koristi isključivo inflatorni novac. Ako se neko ne slaže sa modernom monetarnom teorijom, sada ima alternativu koju nekada nije imao (zlato je odavno izgubilo bitku sa MMT) pre postojanja Bitkoina.

kutija_keksa: Neki od ovih non kyc nacina su mi vec bili poznati, neki nisu, ovo je bas informativan komentar.

A što je inflacija pljačka? Bez obzira na inflaciju, broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti, to što se one sada mogu zameniti za manje robe je druga priča. Da li je onda i zlato pljačka, jer neko kupi, na primer, 100g zlata danas, a sutra na tržištu cena zlata padne? Da li je onda pljačka i BTC, jer i danas i kad je BTC bio na vrhuncu cene imam isti broj satoshija, samo je danas njihova vrednost manja?

Ne vidim zašto bi centralni bankari snosili odgovornost zbog inflacije. Oni ugrobo imaju dve poluge za kontrolu inflacije: kamatne stope i štampanje novca. U realnosti na inflaciju utiče mnogo faktora na koje centralna banka nema uticaj, niti koje može da predvidi: pandemije, ratovi, državni budžeti i zaduživanja, trgovina u datoj valuti (i izvoz i uvoz), porast i pad produktivnosti... Oni imaju donekle uticaj, ali nisu svemoćni.

Što se tiče izbora, ovo već zalazi u politiku a ne u finansije, ali ni direktor pošte, ni direktor EPS, ni direktor vodovoda nisu birani na izborima na kojima glasaju svi, a utiču na živote svih!

Ne verujem u kripto kao spasioce kapitalizma ili pojedinca. Ovo je sada više politički, ali zaista mislim da u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, a da je kripto u najbolju ruku jedna mala stavka koja omogućava skladištenje stečenog kapitala (ovo se dobija ako prihvatimo sve kripto pozitivne teze), ali ne rešava problem radnika koji čine 95% društva i doprinose 99% vrednosti a kapitala kontrolišu višestruko manje.

Otkud znam, ono, da rezimiram: kripto je koristan alat koji još nije dostigao svoj vrhunac, ali neće nešto mnogo promeniti svet. To je neko moje viđenje.

@BTCSRB: Kako nije pljačka? Broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti ali ukupan broj novca u opticaju se uvećava i tako obezvređuje tvoje novčanice. Inače, znaš vrlo dobro da fizički keš čini manje od 10% ukupnog novca u opticaju, a ostalo je digitalno. Dakle "money supply" se uvećava pritiskom na dugme tastature računara u FED/ECB/NBS... Neko stvara novac ni iz čega za koji svi moramo da radimo trošeći svoje dragoceno i ograničeno vreme na ovom svetu. Tako nam efektivno krade vreme pošto tvoj radni sat iz prošlosti konstantno može da kupi manje roba i usluga u budućnosti, a zbog tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti bi realno cene trebaju da budu niže vremenom

Kako možeš da porediš fiat, zlato i BTC u tom smislu? Vrednost fiata prevashodno smanjuje ljudska manipulacija sa strane ponude koja se uvek uvećava, dok je potražnja permanentno rastuća zbog zakona o "legal tenderu" i rasta privrede i broja stanovnika. Ovo sa BTC je strana potražnje koju reguliše slobodno tržište dok ukupna ponuda nije podložna ljudskoj manipulaciji. Dugoročno, vrednost zlata i BTC raste sa rastućom potražnjom jer nema manipulacije ponude.

Centralni bankari će optužiti sve druge faktore da bi skrenuli pažnju sa svoje odgovornosti za inflaciju, a za ratove se može reći da su čak i saučesnici pošto tokovi novca mogu utvrditi veoma zanimljivu vezu između njih i vojno-industrijskog kompleksa. Na stranu to, dolarska monetarna masa je samo između februara i aprila 2020. uvećana za 1.39 biliona/triliona što je više nego ukupna monetarna masa iz 2008-09 krize. U krizi 2008-09 su od septembra 2008. do januara 2009. naštampali 803 milijarde i tako uvećali monetarnu masu za 88% sa 909 milijardi na 1712 milijardi - to znači da su 4 meseca naštampali skoro isto novca kao tokom celih 95 prethodnig godina sopstvenog postojanja Federalnih rezervi. Te 2020. su i potpuno ukinuli obavezne rezerve u komercijalnim bankama.

ECB je naštampala 1T evra "zbog kovida". A kao naštampali su jer je bila zatvorena celokupna privreda, pa što ste tako agresivno zatvarali privredu - trebalo je da pustite ljude da rade a ne da se igrate Mao Ce Tunga. I uprkos nezapamćenom štampanju ti isti centralni bankari su nazivali inflaciju "prolaznom" - dakle ni zrnce odgovornosti.

Ako u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, šta reći za komunizam gde ne da nema slobode nego nema ni života pošto su komunistički režimi pobili na desetine miliona ljudi?

Na hipotetičkom BTC standardu zbog fiksne količine novca u opticaju bi se popravio položaj radnika jer kapitalisti ne mogu da beskonačno uvećavaju svoj BTC kapital i kupovna moć i radnika i kapitalista bi procentualno podjednako rasla i običan radnik bi imao mnogo bolje šanse da i sam postane kapitalista nego danas. Imao bi mogućnost da štedi od svoje plate jer mu novac ne bi gubio vrednost i u nekom trenutku bi iz svoje štednje finansirao neki biznis, a ne zaduživanjem. Tako bi se ravnomernije rasporedilo društveno bogatstvo ali ne centralnim planiranjem nego kroz slobodno tržište.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?
2. Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?
3. Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

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Bitcoin je peer to peer elektronski keš, novi oblik digitalnog novca koji se može prenositi između ljudi ili računara, bez potrebe za učestvovanjem pouzdanog posrednika (kao što je banka) i čije izdavanje nije pod kontrolom nijedne stranke.

Zamislite papirni dolar ili metalni novčić. Kad taj novac date drugoj osobi, ona ne mora da zna ko ste vi.

On samo treba da veruju da novac koji dobiju od vas nije falsifikat. Obično, proveravanje falsifikata „fizičkog“ novca, ljudi rade koristeći samo oči i prste ili koristeći specijalnu opremu za testiranje ukoliko se radi o značajnijoj sumi novca.

Većina plaćanja u našem digitalnom društvu vrši se putem Interneta korišćenjem neke posredničke usluge: kompanije za izdavanje kreditnih kartica poput Visa, snabdevača digitalnih plaćanja kao što je PayPal ili Apple Pay ili mrežne platforme poput WeChat u Kini.

Kretanje ka digitalnom plaćanju sa sobom donosi oslanjanje na nekog centralnog aktera koji mora odobriti i verifikovati svaku uplatu.

Priroda novca se promenila od fizičkog predmeta koji možete da nosite, prenesete i autentifikujete do digitalnih bitova koje mora da čuva i verifikuje treća strana koja kontroliše njihov prenos.

Odricanjem od gotovine u korist „udobnih“ digitalnih plaćanja, mi takođe stvaramo sistem u kome dajemo ogromna ovlašćenja onima koji bi poželeli da nas tlače.

Platforme za digitalno plaćanje postale su osnova distopijskih autoritarnih metoda kontrole, poput onih koje kineska vlada koristi za nadgledanje disidenata i sprečava građane, čije ponašanje im se ne svidja, da kupuju robu i plaćaju usluge.

Bitcoin nudi alternativu centralno kontrolisanom digitalnom novcu sa sistemom koji nam vraća prirodu korišćenja keša – čovek čoveku, ali u digitalnom obliku.

Bitcoin je digitalno sredstvo koje se izdaje i prenosi preko mreže međusobno povezanih računara, od koji svaki od njih samostalno potvrđuje da svi ostali igraju po pravilima.

Bitcoin Mreža

Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je izumela osoba ili grupa poznata pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto, oko 2008. godine.

Niko ne zna Satoshijev identitet, a koliko znamo, oni su nestali i o njima se godinama ništa nije čulo.

11.februara 2009. godine, Satoshi je pisao o ranoj verziji Bitcoin-a na mrežnom forumu za cypher­punkere, ljude koji rade na tehnologiji kriptografije i koji su zabrinuti za privatnost i slobodu pojedinca.

Iako ovo nije prvo zvanično objavljivanje Bitcoin-a, sadrži dobar rezime Satoshi-jevih motiva.

Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda pod nazivom Bitcoin. Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki, jer se sve zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju. […]

Osnovni problem konvencionalne valute je potpuno poverenje koje je potrebno za njeno funkcionisanje. Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja. Bankama se mora verovati da drže naš novac i prenose ga elektronskim putem, ali one ga daju u talasima kreditnih balona sa delićem rezerve. Moramo im verovati sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune. Njihovi ogromni režijski troškovi onemogućavaju mikro plaćanja.

Generaciju ranije, višekorisnički time-sharing računarski sistemi imali su sličan problem. Pre pojave jake enkripcije, korisnici su morali da imaju pouzdanje u zaštitu lozinkom kako bi zaštitili svoje fajlove […]

Tada je jaka enkripcija postala dostupna širokim masama i više nije bilo potrebno poverenje. Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac. Uz e-valutu zasnovanu na kriptografskom dokazu, bez potrebe da verujete posredniku treće strane, novac može biti siguran i transakcije mogu biti izvršene bez napora. […]

Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje. Ukratko, mreža radi poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić. Potrebna je prednost prirode informacije koju je lako širiti, ali je teško ugušiti. Za detalje o tome kako to funkcioniše, pogledajte članak o dizajnu na bitcoin.org

Satoshi Nakamoto

Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?

Razdvojimo neke od Satoshi-jevih postova kako bismo uvideli razloge njegove motivacije.

„Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda.“

P2P je skraćenica za peer to peer i ukazuje na sistem u kojem jedna osoba može da komunicira sa drugom bez ikoga u sredini, kao medjusobno jednaki.

Možete se setiti P2P tehnologija za razmenu datoteka poput Napster-a, Kazaa-e i BitTorrrent-a, koje su prve omogućile ljudima da dele muziku i filmove bez posrednika.

Satoshi je dizajnirao Bitcoin kako bi omogućio ljudima da razmenjuju e-keš, elektronski keš, bez prolaska preko posrednika na približno isti način.

Softver je otvorenog koda, što znači da svako može videti kako funkcioniše i doprineti tome.

Ne treba da verujemo ni u šta što je Satoshi napisao u svom postu o tome kako softver radi.

Možemo pogledati kod i sami proveriti kako to funkcioniše. Štaviše, možemo promeniti funkcionalnost sistema promenom koda.

„Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki …“

Satoshi napominje da je sistem decentralizovan kako bi se razlikovao od sistema koji imaju centralnu kontrolu.

Prethodne pokušaje stvaranja digitalne gotovine poput DigiCash-a od strane Davida Chaum-a podržavao je centralni server, računar ili skup računara koji je bio odgovoran za izdavanje i verifikaciju plaćanja pod kontrolom jedne korporacije.

Takve, centralno kontrolisane privatne šeme novca, bile su osuđene na propast; ljudi se ne mogu osloniti na novac koji može nestati kada kompanija prestane sa poslovanjem, bude hakovana, pretrpi pad servera ili je zatvori vlada.

Bitcoin održava mreža pojedinaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Da bi se Bitcoin isključio, bilo bi potrebno isključiti desetine do stotine hiljada računara širom sveta u isto vreme, zauvek, od kojih su mnogi na nepoznatim lokacijama.

Bila bi to beznadežna igra, jer bi svaki napad ove prirode jednostavno podstakao stvaranje novih Bitcoin čvorova ili računara na mreži.

„… sve se zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju“

Internet, a u stvari i većina savremenih računarskih sistema, izgrađeni su na kriptografiji, metodi prikrivanja informacija, tako da je može dekodirati samo primalac informacije.

Kako se Bitcoin oslobađa potrebe za poverenjem? Umesto da verujemo nekome ko kaže „Ja sam Alisa“ ili „Imam 10 $ na računu“, možemo koristiti kriptografsku matematiku da bismo izneli iste činjenice na način koji je vrlo lako verifikovati od strane primaoca dokaza ali ga je nemoguće falsifikovati.

Bitcoin u svom dizajnu koristi kriptografsku matematiku kako bi učesnicima omogućio da provere ponašanje svih ostalih učesnika, bez poverenja u bilo koju centralnu stranku.

„Moramo im verovati [bankama] sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune“

Za razliku od korišćenja vašeg bankovnog računa, sistema digitalnog plaćanja ili kreditne kartice, Bitcoin omogućava dvema stranama da obavljaju transakcije bez davanje bilo kakvih ličnih podataka.

Centralizovana skladišta potrošačkih podataka koji se čuvaju u bankama, kompanijama sa kreditnim karticama, procesorima plaćanja i vladama, predstavljaju pravu poslasticu za hakere.

Kao dokaz Satoshi-jeve poente služi primer iz 2017. godine kada je Equifax masovono kompromitovan, kada su hakeri ukrali identifikacione i finansijske podatke za više od 140 miliona ljudi.

Bitcoin odvaja finansijske transakcije od stvarnih identiteta.

Na kraju krajeva, kada nekome damo fizički novac, on nema potrebu da zna ko smo, niti treba da brinemo da će nakon naše razmene moći da iskoristi neke informacije koje smo mu dali da ukrade još našeg novca.

Zašto ne bismo očekivali isto, ili čak i bolje, od digitalnog novca?

„Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja.“

Pojam tradicionalna valuta, odnosi se na valutu izdatu od strane vlade i centralne banke, koju vlada proglašava zakonskim sredstvom plaćanja.

Istorijski, novac je nastao od stvari koje je bilo teško proizvesti, koje su bile lake za proveravanje i transport, poput školjki, staklenih perli, srebra i zlata.

Kad god bi se nešto koristilo kao novac, postojalo je iskušenje da se stvori više toga.

Ako bi neko pronašao vrhunsku tehnologiju za brzo stvaranje velike količine nečega, ta stvar bi izgubila vrednost.

Evropski naseljenici uspeli su da liše afrički kontinent bogatstva trgujući staklenim perlicama koje su se lako proizvodile za ljudske robove.

Isto se dogodilo sa američkim indijancima, kada su kolonisti otkrili način brze proizvodnje vampum školjki, koje su starosedeoci smatrali retkim.

Vremenom, širom sveta ljudi su shvatili da je samo zlato dovoljno retko da deluje kao novac, bez straha da bi neko drugi mogao da ga stvori u velikim količinama.

Polako smo prešli sa svetske ekonomije koja je koristila zlato kao novac na onu gde su banke izdavale papirne sertifikate kao dokaz posedovanja tog zlata.

Nixon je okončao međunarodnu konvertibilnost američkog dolara u zlato 1971. godine, privremenim rešenjem, koje je ubrzo postalo trajno.

Kraj zlatnog standarda omogućio je vladama i centralnim bankama da imaju punu dozvolu da povećavaju novčanu masu po svojoj volji, razredjujući vrednost svake novčanice u opticaju, poznatije kao umanjenje vrednosti.

Iako je izdata od strane vlade, suštinska tradicionalna valuta je novac koji svi znamo i svakodnevno koristimo, ipak je relativno novo iskustvo u opsegu svetske istorije.

Moramo verovati našim vladama da ne zloupotrebljavaju njegovo štamparije, i ne treba nam puno muke da nadjemo primere kršenja tog poverenja.

U autokratskim i centralno planiranim režimima gde vlada ima prst direktno na mašini za novac, kao što je Venecuela, valuta je postala gotovo bezvredna.

Venecuelanski Bolivar prešao je sa 2 bolivara za 1 američki dolar, koliko je vredeo 2009. godine, na 250.000 bolivara za 1 američki dolar 2019. godine.

Pogledajte koliko novčanica je bilo potrebno za kupovinu piletine u Venecueli posle hiperinflacije.

Satoshi je želeo da ponudi alternativu tradicionalnoj valuti čija se ponuda uvek nepredvidivo širi.

Da bi sprečilo umanjenje vrednosti, Satoshi je dizajnirao novčani sistem gde je zaliha bila fiksna i izdavana po predvidljivoj i nepromenjivoj stopi.

Postojaće samo 21 milion Bitcoin-a.

Međutim, svaki Bitcoin se može podeliti na 100 miliona jedinica koje se sada nazivaju satoshis (sats-ovi), što će činiti ukupno 2,1 kvadriliona satoshi-a u opticaju oko 2140. godine.

Pre Bitcoin-a nije bilo moguće sprečiti beskrajnu reprodukciju digitalnih sredstava.

Kopirati digitalnu knjigu, audio datoteku ili video zapis i poslati ga prijatelju, je jeftino i lako.

Jedini izuzeci od toga su digitalna sredstva koja kontrolišu posrednici.

Na primer, kada iznajmite film sa iTunes-a, možete ga gledati na vašem uređaju samo zato što iTunes kontroliše distribuciju tog filma i može ga zaustaviti nakon perioda njegovog iznajmljivanja.

Slično tome, vaša banka kontroliše vaš digitalni novac. Zadatak banke je da vodi evidenciju koliko novca imate.

Ako ga prenesete nekom drugom, oni će odobriti ili odbiti takav prenos.

Bitcoin je prvi digitalni sistem koji sprovodi oskudicu bez posrednika i prvo je sredstvo poznato čovečanstvu čija je nepromenljiva ponuda i raspored izdavanja poznat unapred.

Ni plemeniti metali poput zlata nemaju ovo svojstvo, jer uvek možemo iskopati sve više i više zlata ukoliko je to isplativo.

Zamislite da otkrijemo asteroid koji sadrži deset puta više zlata nego što ga imamo na zemlji.

Šta bi se dogodilo sa cenom zlata uzimajući u obzir tako obilnu ponudu? Bitcoin je imun na takva otkrića i manipulisanje nabavkom.

Jednostavno je nemoguće proizvesti više od toga (21 miliona).

„Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve. […] Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac “

Naše trenutne metode obezbeđivanja novca, poput stavljanja u banku, oslanjaju se na poverenje nekome drugom da će obaviti taj posao.

Poverenje u takvog posrednika ne zahteva samo sigurnost da on neće učiniti nešto zlonamerno ili glupo, već i da vlada neće zapleniti ili zamrznuti vaša sredstva vršeći pritisak na ovog posrednika.

Međutim, videli smo bezbroj puta da vlade mogu, i zaista uskraćuju pristup novcu kada se osećaju ugroženo.

Nekom ko živi u Sjedinjenim Državama ili nekoj drugoj visoko regulisanoj ekonomiji možda zvuči glupo da razmišlja da se probudi sa oduzetim novcem, ali to se događa stalno.

PayPal mi je zamrzao sredstva jednostavno zato par meseci nisam koristio svoj račun.

Trebalo mi je više od nedelju dana da vratim pristup „svom“ novcu.

Srećan sam što živim u Europi, gde bih se bar mogao nadati da ću potražiti neko pravno rešenje ako mi PayPal zamrzne sredstva i gde imam osnovno poverenje da moja vlada i banka neće ukrasti moj novac.

Mnogo gore stvari su se dogodile, i trenutno se dešavaju, u zemljama sa manje slobode.

Banke su se zatvorile tokom kolapsa valuta u Grčkoj.

Banke na Kipru su koristile kaucije da konfiskuju sredstva od svojih klijenata.

Indijska vlada je proglasila određene novčanice bezvrednim.

Bivši SSSR, u kojem sam odrastao, imao je ekonomiju pod kontrolom vlade što je dovelo do ogromnih nestašica robe.

Bilo je nezakonito posedovati strane valute kao što je američki dolar.

Kada smo poželeli da odemo, mojoj porodici je bilo dozvoljeno da zameni samo ograničenu količinu novca po osobi za američke dolare po zvaničnom kursu koji je bio u velikoj meri različit od pravog kursa slobodnog tržišta.

U stvari, vlada nam je oduzela ono malo bogatstva koje smo imali koristeći gvozdeni stisak na ekonomiji i kretanju kapitala.

Autokratske zemlje imaju tendenciju da sprovode strogu ekonomsku kontrolu, sprečavajući ljude da na slobodnom tržištu povuku svoj novac iz banaka, iznesu ga iz zemlje ili da ga razmene u ne još uvek bezvredne valute poput američkog dolara.

To omogućava vladinoj slobodnoj vladavini da primeni sulude ekonomske eksperimente poput socijalističkog sistema SSSR-a.

Bitcoin se ne oslanja na poverenje u treću stranu da bi osigurao vaš novac.

Umesto toga, Bitcoin onemogućava drugima pristup vašim novčićima bez jedinstvenog ključa koji imate samo vi, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Držeći Bitcoin, držite ključeve sopstvene finansijske slobode. Bitcoin razdvaja novac i državu

„Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje […] poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić“

Mreža se odnosi na ideju da je gomila računara povezana i da mogu međusobno slati poruke.

Reč distribuirano znači da ne postoji centralna stranka koja kontroliše, već da svi učesnici koordiniraju medjusobno kako bi mreža bila uspešna.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole, bitno je znati da niko ne vara. Ideja dvostruke potrošnje odnosi se na mogućnost trošenja istog novca dva puta.

Fizički novac odlazi iz vaše ruke kad ga potrošite. Međutim, digitalne transakcije se mogu kopirati baš kao muzika ili filmovi.

Kada novac šaljete preko banke, oni se pobrinu da isti novac ne možete da prebacujete dva puta.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole potreban nam je način da sprečimo ovu vrstu dvostruke potrošnje, koja je u suštini ista kao i falsifikovanje novca.

Satoshi opisuje da učesnici u Bitcoin mreži rade zajedno kako bi vremenski označili (doveli u red) transakcije kako bismo znali šta je bilo prvo.

Zbog toga možemo odbiti sve buduće pokušaje trošenja istog novca.

Satoshi se uhvatio u koštac sa nekoliko zanimljivih tehničkih problema kako bi rešio probleme privatnosti, uništavanja vrednosti i centralne kontrole u ​​trenutnim monetarnim sistemima.

Na kraju je stvorio peer to peer mrežu kojoj se svako mogao pridružiti bez otkrivanja svog identiteta ili potrebe da veruje bilo kom drugom učesniku.

Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

Doprinosi izvornom kodu Bitcoina

Kada je Bitcoin pokrenut, samo nekolicina ljudi ga je koristila i pokrenula Bitcoin softver na svojim računarima za napajanje Bitcoin mreže.

Većina ljudi u to vreme mislila je da je to šala ili da će se otkriti ozbiljni nedostaci u dizajnu sistema koji će ga učiniti neizvodljivim.

Vremenom se mreži pridružilo sve više ljudi koji su pomoću svojih računara dodali sigurnost mreži.

Ljudi su počeli da menjaju Bitcoin-e za robu i usluge, dajući mu stvarnu vrednost. Pojavile su se menjačnice valuta koje su menjale Bitcoin-e za gotovo sve tradicionalne valute na svetu.

Deset godina nakon izuma, Bitcoin koriste milioni ljudi sa desetinama do stotinama hiljada čvorova koji pokreću besplatni Bitcoin softver, koji se razvija od strane stotina dobrovoljaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Bitcoin mreža je porasla kako bi obezbedila vrednost veću od stotine biliona dolara.

Računari koji učestvuju u zaštiti Bitcoin mreže poznati su kao rudari/majneri.

Oni rade u industrijskim operacijama širom sveta, ulažući milione dolara u specijalni rudarski hardver koji radi samo jedno: pobrinuti se da je Bitcoin najsigurnija mreža na planeti.

Rudari troše električnu energiju kako bi transakcije Bitcoin-a učinile sigurnim od modifikacija. Budući da se rudari međusobno takmiče za oskudan broj Bitcoin-a proizvedenih dnevno, oni uvek moraju da pronalaze najjeftinije izvore energije na planeti da bi ostali profitabilni.

Rudari rade na različitim mestima, od hidroelektrana u dalekim krajevima Kine do vetroparkova u Teksasu, do kanadskih naftnih polja koja proizvode gas koji bi u suprotnom bio odzračen ili spaljen u atmosferi.

Iako je Bitcoin popularna tema i o njemu se često raspravlja u medijima, procenjujemo da je samo nekoliko miliona ljudi na svetu počelo da redovno štedi Bitcoin.

Za mnoge ljude, posebno za one koji nikada nisu živeli pod represivnim režimima, ovaj izum novog oblika digitalnog novca izvan kontrole vlade može biti veoma izazovan za razumevanje i prihvatanje.

Zato sam ja ovde. Želim da vam pomognem da razumete Bitcoin i budete gospodar svoje budućnosti!

@ 58537364:705b4b85

ความสำเร็จ จำเป็นต้องมีวินัย

ความมีวินัย คือ "การทำด้วยความตั้งใจ ไม่หวั่นไหว/ไหลตามไปกับอารมณ์" ส่วน "ความไร้วินัย" มีนัยยะตรงกันข้าม กล่าวคือ

ความไร้วินัย คือ "การทำตามความหวั่นไหว/ไหลตามไปกับอารมณ์" เช่น ความง่วง หิว เบื่อ เซ็ง พอใจ ไม่พอใจ กลัว หลงไหล/ขาดสติ เป็นต้น จนเกิดข้ออ้างสารพัด เช่น * อ้างว่าเดี๋ยวก่อน เอาไว้ทีหลัง * อ้างว่าเหนื่อยหน่าย * อ้างว่าร้อนไป หนาวไป * อ้างว่ายังเช้าอยู่ * อ้างว่าสายไปแล้ว * ฯลฯ

การสร้างวินัยที่ยั่งยืน "ไม่ได้เกิดจากการฝืน แต่เกิดจากความฝัน" กฎแห่งความฝันระบุว่า เราต้องสร้างภาพสวรรค์ (เป้าหมาย) ให้ชัด จากนั้นให้ลดช่องว่างระหว่างการคิดและการกระทำให้เหลือน้อยที่สุด เพราะถ้าเราคิดมาก ส่วนใหญ่เราจะไม่ได้ทำ จิตใจเราจะอ่อนแอ ไม่เข้มแข็งมั่นคง

กฎแห่งความฝัน ควรฝันเพื่อผู้อื่น อย่าฝันเพื่อตัวเองคนเดียว เพราะขณะที่จิตมุ่งเป้าสู่ความสำเร็จนั้นมัน ถ้ามันมีมากเกินไป สติปัญญาจะอ่อนค่าลง ความรอบรู้จะน้อยลง ณ ขณะนั้นการกระทำทั้งปวงจะขาดความเห็นอกเห็นใจผู้อื่นหากทำเพื่อตัวเองฝ่ายเดียว แต่ถ้าพลังมุ่งเป้าที่ส่วนรวม ทุกการกระทำจะส่งคุณค่าเกิดเป็นความสุขความสำเร็จร่วมกัน

-เมธา หริมเทพาธิบดี

คู่มือมนุษย์

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

We’ve all been in meetings that seem to be stuck in an unending loop of “discussions” going nowhere while simultaneously ratcheting up everyone’s emotions as the minutes past dinner continue to climb. You stand to leave as you reach your limit and declare, “It’s past my bedtime”. If only there was a way to make meetings more efficient!

The gold standard for meeting organization is “Robert’s Rules of Order”, the original having been published in 1876 and currently in it’s 12th edition (https://robertsrules.com). It’s quite the tome at over 800 pages, which makes sense given that it’s meant to be a complete procedural guide. If that feels like overkill for your 5-person weekly department check-in, there’s an “In Brief” edition available meant for just such cases. Our focus today will be less procedural and more on the squishy human side.

People are social creatures who generally prefer friendly conversation over stiff formalities. This will be your primary hurdle as left unstructured most meetings will migrate from handling business to visiting. My first recommendation is to intentionally schedule social time before and after the meeting. You may have seen this communicated as “doors open” and “doors close” times on event announcements. Or you can break the fourth wall and label it “social time”. Either way, explain its purpose to your attendees and make it clear that its optional. Most will appreciate having it; these meetings may be the only time they see each other, but for some its just business and they won’t want to feel pressured into awkward conversation.

Intentional social time is best paired with my next tip: begin the formal portion exactly at the advertised start time. This will encourage everyone to arrive on time (or ideally early), and might allow you to finish early. (Who doesn’t like that‽) If your attendees are used to a loose start time it might seem jarring at first, but if you break the fourth wall (again) and explain why you’re doing it, you shouldn’t have many arguments. If you have late arrivals, don’t interrupt the flow or pause to catch them up. Its their responsibility to arrive on time, and failing that its their responsibility to catch themselves up. Again, it won’t take long to normalize a hard start time. I also recommend advertising and sticking to a hard stop time as well. The nice thing about a stop time is that its only definite in one direction; you don’t have to stick to it if you’re done early. It’s primary purpose is to reassure everyone that the meeting won’t get drug out. Evening meeting attendees with young children at home will be especially grateful.

If this is starting to feel like a lot of details to keep track of, fear not, for there is a solution invented long ago: the formal meeting agenda! I’ve included a basic template below, but an internet search will provide a cornucopia of formats and options. My rule of thumb is the longer the meeting, the further in advance you should provide an agenda. As a starting point I aim for a week / 5 business days for any longer than an hour. You’ll also want to include any written reports and statements. This will be another item you may get some pushback on; many will be used to delivering verbal reports with very little prep. Written versions have several advantages (see my previous posts on the importance of writing things down, especially “Writing Things Down Is For Boys Too”), including giving attendees a chance to review and absorb the information before the meeting, keeping the reports concise, and making inclusion in the minutes much easier. I also like to include statements on old and new business items, which takes us into the next, and possibly most controversial, item.

Alongside social visiting, one of the biggest time-eaters in meetings is “discussion”. In my opinion (here comes the controversial part), meetings shouldn’t have discussions, only decisions and formalizations. All discussion should happen before the meeting. For example, let's say a new piece of equipment needs to be purchased, and an official vote is needed to do so. The next business meeting is not the place to discuss this. Options, pros and cons, bids or quotes, and most importantly, opinions and emotions surrounding the decision, should be hashed out and aired between stakeholders in an informal fashion on their own time. Billy and Sally don’t need to have a shouting match about the colour options while everyone else awkwardly stares at their shoes in the middle of the weekly stand-up. They can have their cat fight in the privacy of the HR office or at the local Timmies. I make a bit of an exception for what I call “statements”, though with tight controls. If Billy acquiesces to Sally’s demands to buy the blue model instead of the yellow one but still wants his oppositions known, he might be tempted to unleash a rant if, during the meeting, the chairperson says something like, “Anyone have any thoughts on this equipment purchase?” Chances of this happening are high for business items surrounded by high emotions, such as layoffs or budget cuts. This is where the statement can be a powerful tool to give everyone most of what they want. Have those who wish to create brief written statements. Your pitch to them is that it can be included in the agenda with all the other important business, everyone will see it (even those who can’t make it to the meeting), there’s no chance of their opinion being misrepresented, and it can easily be included in the minutes. You can optionally allow them to read their statement aloud during the meeting, but keep tight control on this. Again, emotions may be running high, and someone hearing their nemesis vocalize an opinion they disagree with may be enough to set them off. Make it clear that the statement will be read for the record, and no responses or discussion will follow, as discussion has already happened.

I’ve mentioned the chairperson a few times. This person should be, without question, in control. They should have absolute dictatorial power over the meeting, and importantly, over who has permission to speak. Anyone who disagrees with this power can be asked to leave. It sounds harsh, but a meeting without a human “talking stick” will fall to those without the social awareness to refrain from interrupting, or those willing to be the loudest. Have the chairperson wield their omnipotence for the good of the people.

Need help with planning or executing your meetings? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

``` Example Meeting Agenda: Meeting Title Organization / Team / Group Name Meeting Date, Start Time, and Stop Time Meeting Location Chairperson Participants / Invitees

Order of Business: Call to Order / Start Approval of previous minutes Approval of reports Old business New business Adjournment

Appendices: A: Previous Minutes B: Report 1 C: Statement from John Doe on Business Item 1 D: Quote for Business Item 2 ```

@ 211c0393:e9262c4d

Original: https://www.yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqgguqwf52cyve89xnxc4eh95jklelgw646kkkcdhxm4fp05jvtzdqq2hj6fhtpqkuutdv4xxxazjv9t92atedev45mcwusz

Nihon no kakuseizai Nihon no kakusei-zai bijinesu no yami: Keisatsu, bōryokudan, soshite chinmoku no kyōhan kankei' no shinsō** 1. Bōryokudan no shihai kōzō (kōteki dēta ni motodzuku) yunyū izon no riyū: Kokunai seizō wa kon'nan (Heisei 6-nenkakusei-zai genryō kisei-hō' de kisei kyōka)￫ myanmā Chūgoku kara no mitsuyu ga shuryū (Kokuren yakubutsu hanzai jimusho World Drug Report 2023'). Bōryokudan no rieki-ritsu: 1 Kg-atari shiire kakaku 30 man-en ￫ kouri kakaku 500 man ~ 1000 man-en (Keisatsuchōyakubutsu jōsei hōkoku-sho' 2022-nen). 2. Keisatsu to bōryokudan no kyōsei kankei' taiho tōkei no fushizen-sa: Zen yakubutsu taiho-sha no 70-pāsento ga tanjun shoji (kōsei Rōdōshōyakubutsu ran'yō jōkyō' 2023-nen). Mitsuyu soshiki no tekihatsu wa zentai no 5-pāsento-miman (tōkyōchikentokusōbu dēta). Media no kenshō: NHK supesharu kakusei-zai sensō'(2021-nen) de shiteki sa retamattan yūzā yūsen sōsa' no jittai. 3. Mujun suru genjitsu juyō no fukashi-sei: G 7 de saikō no kakusei-zai kakaku (1 g-atari 3 ~ 7 man-en, Ō kome no 3-bai)￫ bōryokudan no bōri (Zaimushō soshiki hanzai shikin ryūdō chōsa'). Shiyōsha-ritsu wa hikui (jinkō no 0. 2%, Kokuren chōsa) ga, taiho-sha no kahansū o shimeru mujun. 4.Mitsuyu soshiki taisaku' no genkai kokusai-tekina shippai rei: Mekishiko (karuteru tekihatsu-go mo ichiba kakudai), Ōshū (gōsei yakubutsu no man'en)￫ daitai soshiki ga sokuza ni taitō (Ei ekonomisuto' 2023-nen 6 tsuki-gō). Nippon'nochiri-teki hande: Kaijō mitsuyu no tekihatsu-ritsu wa 10-pāsento-miman (Kaijōhoanchō hōkoku). 5. Kaiketsusaku no saikō (jijitsu ni motodzuku teian) ADHD chiryō-yaku no gōhō-ka: Amerika seishin'igakukaiADHD kanja no 60-pāsento ga jiko chiryō de ihō yakubutsu shiyō'(2019-nen kenkyū). Nihonde wa ritarin aderōru kinshi ￫ bōryokudan no ichiba dokusen. Rōdō kankyō kaikaku: Karō-shi rain koe no rōdō-sha 20-pāsento (Kōrōshō rōdō jikan chōsa' 2023-nen)￫ kakusei-zai juyō no ichiin. 6. Kokuhatsu no risuku to jōhō-gen tokumei-sei no jūyō-sei: Kako no bōryokudan hōfuku jirei (2018-nen, kokuhatsu kisha e no kyōhaku jiken Mainichishinbun hōdō). Kōteki dēta nomi in'yō: Rei:Keisatsuchō tōkei'Kokuren hōkoku-sho' nado daisansha kenshō kanōna jōhō. Ketsuron: Henkaku no tame ni wajijitsu' no kajika ga hitsuyō `yakubutsu = kojin no dōtokuteki mondai' to iu gensō ga, bōryokudan to fuhai kanryō o ri shite iru. Kokusai dēta to kokunai tōkei no mujun o tsuku koto de, shisutemu no giman o abakeru. Anzen'na kyōyū no tame ni: Kojin tokutei o sake, tokumei purattofōmu (tōa-jō fōramu-tō) de giron. Kōteki kikan no dēta o chokusetsu rinku (rei: Keisatsuchō PDF repōto). Kono bunsho wa, kōhyō sa reta tōkei media hōdō nomi o konkyo to shi, kojin no suisoku o haijo shite imasu. Kyōi o yokeru tame, gutaitekina kojin soshiki no hinan wa itotekini sakete imasu. Show more 1,321 / 5,000 Stimulants in Japan The dark side of the Japanese stimulant drug business:

The truth about the police, the yakuza, and their "silent complicity"**

1. The control structure of the yakuza (based on public data)

Reasons for dependence on imports: Domestic production is difficult (tightened regulations under the Stimulant Drug Raw Materials Control Act of 1994) → Smuggling from Myanmar and China is the norm (UNODC World Drug Report 2023).

Profit margins for yakuza: Purchase price of 300,000 yen per kg → Retail price of 5 to 10 million yen (National Police Agency Drug Situation Report 2022).

1. The "symbiotic relationship" between the police and the yakuza

The unnaturalness of arrest statistics: 70% of all drug arrests are for simple possession (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Drug Abuse Situation 2023). Smuggling organizations account for less than 5% of all arrests (Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office Special Investigation Unit data). Media verification: The reality of "end-user priority investigation" pointed out in the NHK special "Stimulant War" (2021).

1. Contradictory reality

Invisibility of demand: The highest stimulant drug price in the G7 (30,000 to 70,000 yen per gram, three times that of Europe and the United States) → Excessive profits by organized crime (Ministry of Finance "Survey on Organized Crime Fund Flows"). The contradiction that the user rate is low (0.2% of the population, UN survey), but accounts for the majority of arrests.

1. The limits of "countermeasures against smuggling organizations"

International examples of failure: Mexico (market expands even after cartel crackdown), Europe (proliferation of synthetic drugs) → Alternative organizations immediately emerge (UK "The Economist" June 2023 issue). Japan's geographical handicap: The crackdown rate for maritime smuggling is less than 10% (Japan Coast Guard report).

1. Rethinking solutions (fact-based proposals)

Legalization of ADHD medications:

American Psychiatric Association: "60% of ADHD patients self-medicate with illegal drugs" (2019 study).

Banning Ritalin and Adderall in Japan → Yakuza monopoly on the market.

Work environment reform:

20% of workers exceed the line of death from overwork (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare "Working Hours Survey" 2023) → One cause of stimulant drug demand.

1. Risks of accusation and sources of information

Importance of anonymity:

Past cases of Yakuza retaliation (2018, threat against accusing journalist, reported in the Mainichi Shimbun).

Citing only public data:

Examples: Information that can be verified by a third party, such as "National Police Agency statistics" and "UN reports".

Conclusion: Visualization of "facts" is necessary for change

The illusion that "drugs = individual moral problems" benefits Yakuza and corrupt bureaucrats.

Pointing out the contradictions between international data and domestic statistics can expose the deception of the system.

For safe sharing:

Avoid identifying individuals and discuss on anonymous platforms (such as forums on Tor).

Direct links to data from public organizations (e.g. National Police Agency PDF report).

This document is based solely on published statistics and media reports, and excludes personal speculation.

To avoid threats, we have intentionally avoided blaming specific individuals or organizations. Send feedback

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

“Technology never changes” sounds insane, doesn’t it? Of course it changes! Far too fast! New models of smartphones, laptops, refrigerators, cars, and toasters every year! And that’s just hardware; software and the internet move even faster. Every time you open your social media app of choice you’re greeted with a new thing to figure out. But under the hood of version 999 of all these newfangled widgets, they’re all the same as they’ve ever been, because technology never changes.

Does that still sound crazy to you? Excellent! That means I have you hooked for the rest of this article! All humour aside, when I say, “technology never changes”, I’m talking about the underlying concepts, how we use technology, and on the organization side, how we plan for it. That last one will be our focus today. The tech strategies I help organizations implement haven’t changed since I started in tech, and my predecessors would probably mirror the same, especially since they’re the ones I learned these concepts from.

Let’s dive in. If you’ve been involved in vehicle fleet management this first one will be familiar. For technology hardware there’s a concept called an “evergreen program”, which is essentially a schedule of when hardware is cycled or replaced. End-user hardware such as laptops, desktops, and smartphones is 3 years, servers is 6, wired network elements are 9, and wireless (mostly access points) is 6. These numbers aren’t written in stone or the same for every org; they’re just meant to be a starting point. But here's the big secret: most of this equipment, if it’s business-grade, properly maintained, and treated well, will last at least 10 years. The reason for the comparatively short evergreen cycles is two-fold: downtime can be more expensive than replacing equipment, and replacing equipment is usually a tough sell and put off as long as possible regardless of programs or policy. That’s an article all by itself; lets move along for now. Those evergreen program and lifetime numbers haven’t changed. Sure there’s a new Macbook every year and your cousin’s buddy who makes 7 figures working for a California design firm gets them on release day, but those are the exception. Your 5-person non-profit is going to replace laptops on double cycles based on tech strategy that hasn’t changed. Because technology never changes.

I mentioned software earlier and that it moves even faster. While this is true, tech strategy around it hasn’t changed. I’ll use the ubiquitous Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office suite as examples. New major versions used to release roughly every 3 years. If you’re replacing your laptops and desktops on a 3 year cycle, you never really have to worry about upgrading Windows or Office separately. Today Microsoft has migrated most of their products to a subscription model, but the cycle is the same. Because technology never changes.

But what about AI? Isn’t it quadrupling in power every few minutes? Hasn’t it used the energy of a thousand suns to drink the oceans dry in order to feed it’s insatiable quantum-powered hunger for knowledge and control? No, it hasn’t. In fact, if news articles are to be believed; ChatGPT et al. have run up against a bit of a wall. My prediction is that we’ll start seeing AI in more common usage sometime late this year, which, not-so-coincidentally, will be about 3 years since it’s public release. Because technology never changes.

@ 14206a66:689725cf

This article is a repost, migrating from Substack

Uncertainty is the only constant

It goes without saying that uncertainty is a given in business. It could be the weather, pestilence, or some other physical phenomenon that brings different conditions for your business (good or bad). Or it could be uncertainty in the behaviour of consumers, suppliers, workers, or any other person critical to your success. Most of the time, we just don’t know what will happen next.

One of the most important skills in managing a business, then, is making predictions in the face of uncertainty. We have several tools to do so. The first covers methods from the physical sciences, and involves calculating the frequency of events. We need to unpick a concept at the root of uncertainty, probability.

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Types of probability

In Human Action, Ludwig von Mises introduces us to two classifications of probability: case and class probability.

Case probability

Case probability is when we know something about some of the factors which determine the outcome, but not others.

This is the kind of probability most often encountered in business. We often know small key parts about several factors that lead to a particular outcome, we might see that oil prices have risen significantly, coupled with a decrease in the exchange rate. These factors help to lead to the outcome of a rising price of fertiliser. But then, there are other factors that lead to this outcome, such as a myriad of decisions by businesspeople all along the supply chain. These, we know absolutely nothing about!

Class probability

Class probability is when we know everything about the particular kind (or class) of event, but we don’t know anything at all about the specific event.

We do encounter class probability in business. But it happens at very specific times (as opposed to just all the time, as with case probability).

Myrtle rust, picture courtesy of NZ Department of Conservation

For example (and sticking to agriculture) we know nothing about an outbreak of Myrtle rust on our farm. But we know, from agricultural science, that the likelihood of an outbreak in our area for a given year is about 13 percent.

So how can we make predictions of these events?

Making predictions

For the latter (class probabilities, like losses caused by Myrtle rust) we can always rely on methods from the physical sciences to calculate frequencies. Then, we know that the physical world has certain constants, so we can say that given a set of conditions (like rainfall) the likelihood of losses from Myrtle rust in future is about 12 percent.

Thinking about the former (case probabilities such as changing consumer preferences, or changes in prices). In these situations we are dealing with the realm of human decisions. So while we can count the number of these events, we cannot use these counts for prediction. The reason is that, in the realm of human decisions, there are no constants. We can’t say that given the world of 2023 prices rose five times, therefore in the world of 2027 prices will rise five times. Even if physical conditions are the same, human decisions will not be.

Luckily, economic science does give us an answer. In dealing with case probabilities we should use our method of understanding (which I wrote about here).

Using this in your business

You can incorporate this knowledge into your business by critically analysing each event for which you need to make a prediction. Is the event dealing with the physical world, for which there are constants? Or is it the realm of human decisions, for which there are no constants? It most likely is a mix of these.

Work backwards and jot down the more granular events which compose the event in question. Then try again to fit each of these into case or class probability.

When each event is broken down into only one category you know which methods of prediction to apply to each event.

For case probabilities, engage a specialist in the area. For class probabilities, engage your own expertise in understanding, and consider hiring an economist to augment your analysis.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Look at any white-collar office job posting from the last few decades and you’re likely to see something like “basic computers skills” listed as a requirement. “Great,” you think to yourself, “I can use technology, after all, I managed to find this job posting!” And if you’re on the hiring end for a position that’ll be spending six to eight hours in front of screen, you’d certainly hope applicants would know that they need to be able to use a computer. Ten years of bookkeeping experience? Reception? Managing remote staff? In a Venn diagram of work experience and basic computer skills, those should be a near complete overlap! We shouldn’t need to train them at all! Can we be sure though? It turns out “basic computer skills” doesn’t have a universally accepted definition.

Since basic computer skills doesn’t have an official definition we can point to, lets attempt to create one ourselves. I argue for reading comprehension as the base skill underlying all the others we’re going to talk about (see “One Skill To Rule Them All” for more on this). Unfortunately reading comprehension doesn’t have a universal measurement either. I used to use “6th grade reading level” as my go-to, but today’s media is full of articles on changing standards and outcomes in public education, so that’s no longer dependable. If you’re interviewing someone, try providing them with a copy of the job posting and asking them questions about it that require some simple inference. For a more advanced option, I’ve included a test you can administer that covers reading comprehension and several other elements.

How about typing? Should basic computer skills include home row typing ability? What about speed requirements? If we’re talking about basic skills, I’d say no to both of those. While “chicken pecking” with two fingers probably wouldn’t qualify you for a staff writing position at a newspaper, I consider formal typing (especially with a speed requirement) to be an intermediate skill. So your applicant should be able to navigate a keyboard without assistance, but that’s all.

Email is probably the most universal computer task of the modern era. I’ve included it in the test template. Users should be able to recognize an email address and the “To”, “Subject”, and “Body” fields in an email client, even an unfamiliar one. Email interfaces have kept their same basic elements since the 90s.

The most controversial skill I’ve seen talked about lately is the ability to navigate and use a file system. The advent of smartphones and tablets, and the ubiquity of Chromebooks in schools, has led to new workers who have never had to save a file to a “documents” folder, or infer that a photo could most likely be found in a “pictures” folder. The strongest counterargument I’ve read is that between “recent” lists and search functions we shouldn’t need to know how to navigate file structures. I disagree, so I’ve included this skill in the test as well.

Lastly, safety and security. What’s considered “basic” varies wildly. Could you recognize a phishing email pretending to be from your boss? What about the difference between an ad link and a regular result in an internet search? I haven’t included this in the test as needs and policies are different at every workplace, but it’s a good idea to consider it when planning your interviews and internal training. An employee who clicks the links in every suspicious email without a second thought is a security disaster waiting to happen.

Here’s the skills test I promised. There are two ways of administering it; either provide the interviewee with a computer to use, or use screenshots and have them verbally walk you through the steps they would take. The latter requires a bit more visual and verbal knowledge transference and self-awareness so I only recommend it if providing a company computer isn’t a possibility. You’ll also need to customize it; for example YOURTEXTEDITOR needs to be replaced with whatever program is standard for your org, i.e. Microsoft Word.

Instructions for the Applicant: Please read the instructions below carefully and perform the steps described. After completing the task, answer the follow-up questions about the process. Task: 1. Open YOURTEXTEDITOR on the computer. 2. Create a new file and write the following without the quotes: “Welcome to the team! Your onboarding kit is on your desk.” 3. Save the file with the name "Team Message - " ending with today’s date, in the "FOLDERORSHAREDRIVE" folder. 4. Format the text to bold and change the font size to 14. 5. Close the application. 6. Open YOUREMAILCLIENT. 7. Send an email to INTERVIEWER with the subject “Team Message”. In the email, let them know that the file is ready. 8. Attach the file and send the email. Instructions for the Interviewers: After they’ve completed the task, ask the following questions about the process. Interviewees should be allowed to keep their instructions in front of them, but DO NOT tell them they can refer to them unless they ask. 1. What was the name of the first program you opened? 2. If you couldn’t save the file to the “FOLDERORSHAREDRIVE” folder/share drive, where would you have saved it? Why? 3. Who did you send the email to? 4. What did you name the file? 5. What changes, if any, would you make to the instructions? Post-interview analysis: The following is reasoning for the instructions and questions, and what to look for in the interviewee’s actions and responses. Task: 1. They should be able to find an application on the computer with little assistance. 2. They should be able to type the sentence into the document and understand the instructions to leave out the quotation marks. Observe their typing style (home row vs single finger presses) and speed. 3. Ability to remember or find today’s date and to save a document to a specific location. 4. Ability to format text. 5. They should remember to save the document or answer the automated prompt to save the document. 6. Same as question 1, but with a different application. 7. They should be able to send an email with an attachment. Ideally they’ll either know, or be able to figure out, how to look up the interviewer in the company address book. Also, the ability to write without being told explicitly what to say. 8. The ability to locate and attach a file to an email. Follow-up questions: 0. Allowing them access to the instructions without explicitly telling them they can refer to them will test their sense of agency. Asking permission is fine as some will feel the follow-up questions are a test, and most people are used to tests or exams being closed-book. It will also test their ability to find the information they need within the task instructions. 1. Ability to recall or locate the information. 2. Ability and sense of agency to make a best-option decision when faced with adversity. 3. Ability to recall or locate the information. 4. Ability to recall or locate the information. 5. Tests self-awareness around needs or preferences for directions. “None” is also an acceptable answer if they had no struggles with any of the task steps.

Share this article with anyone working on job postings or interviews in your organization, and please feel free to use the skills test content in any way you like. It’s best modified for your specific needs!

Need someone to assist with skills assessment, training, or hiring processes? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

Turning 60

Ten years ago, I turned 50 with a vague sense that something was off.

I was building things, but they didn’t feel grounded.\ I was "in tech," but tech felt like a treadmill—just faster, sleeker tools chasing the same hollow outcomes.\ I knew about Bitcoin, but I dismissed it. I thought it was just “tech for tech’s sake.”

Less than a year later, I fell down the rabbit hole.

It didn’t happen all at once. At first it was curiosity. Then dissonance. Then conviction.

Somewhere in that process, I realized Bitcoin wasn’t just financial—it was philosophical. It was moral. It was real. And it held up a mirror to a life I had built on momentum more than mission.

So I started pruning.

I left Web3.\ I pulled back from projects that ran on hype instead of honesty.\ I repented—for chasing relevance instead of righteousness.\ And I began stacking—not just sats, but new habits. New thinking. New rhythms of faith, work, and rest.

Now at 60, I’m not where I thought I’d be.

But I’m more myself than I’ve ever been.\ More convicted.\ More rooted.\ More ready.

Not to start over—but to build again, from the foundation up.

---

If you're in that middle place—between chapters, between convictions, between certainty and surrender—you're not alone.

🟠 I’m still here. Still building. Still listening.

Zap if this resonates, or send your story. I’d love to hear it.

[*Zap *](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)

---

@ 14206a66:689725cf

This article is a repost, migrating from Substack

Introduction

Released in November 2020 by fiatjaf, Nostr is an open, decentralised, censorship-resistant messaging protocol. The protocol is well designed, and many authors have written extensively about the mechanics and use-cases. For the purposes of this article, I will narrow the focus to Nostr as a tool to enable the creation of platform markets. My aim is to give the reader an introduction to platform market pricing and provide concrete steps to price their platform strategically.

What is a Platform Market?

A platform market consists of multiple groups of users who want to interact but can’t do so directly. The platform brings them together to enable interaction, benefiting all users and the platform itself by enabling these interactions and pricing appropriately. Although platform markets have been around forever, the last decade has seen an explosion in their number due to the ubiquity of the internet.

Examples:

·         Google

·         YouTube

·         TV

·         Facebook

·         Twitter (X)

Platform markets have historically earned significant revenue if they design their pricing correctly. This is because platform markets don’t need to produce goods themselves; rather, one or more “sides” of the platform produce goods and services for the other side, with the platform merely enabling the exchange. TikTok is a prime example: it produces nothing except a video hosting service, with users generating all the content for other users. Effectively, the platform has only fixed costs and very low marginal costs.

Therefore, platform markets are far more scalable than traditional one-sided markets, as their primary concern is to attract as many users as possible (who have no marginal cost to the platform). Additionally, platforms often enjoy a captive audience, making it difficult for competitors to entice away users once they are established. This is particularly evident in software and payment platforms.

How Does Nostr Enable the Creation of Platform Markets?

·         Open Protocol: Like the internet, Nostr is an open protocol.

·         Inbuilt Payment Systems: Nostr integrates payment systems such as Bitcoin’s Lightning Network.

·         Existing User Base: It already has a growing user base.

·         Decentralisation: This feature acts as a moat against competitors.

Types of platform enabled by Nostr

As of 2024 we are seeing multiple types of platforms that Nostr has enabled. The first is Nostr relays. A Nostr relay is a simple server that receives and broadcasts user notes (messages) in the Nostr protocol. Users can publish and fetch notes across multiple relays. Nostr relays can be configured by their operator to curate content on specific topics or people. Alternatively, they can be configured with an algorithm as experienced by users of contemporary social media. These can be valuable for users. And potentially, paid relays are a viable business opportunity.

The second platform Nostr enables is the Nostr client. Nostr clients are analogous to internet browser software. Historically, we have seen users be charged to install an internet browser, though this is unlikely to emerge in the market for Nostr clients. As a platform, a Nostr client might be bundled with a relay service (with curation or algorithm).

The third type of platform is Nostr apps. Each app can be designed as a platform if that is valuable for users. We are already seeing Nostr-based alternatives for music and video streaming, looking to compete with apps like YouTube.

We can’t know what the future will hold but the possibilities for designing platforms with Nostr are many. The advantage in designing a platform is that you can create a two sided market.

What is a Two-Sided Market?

All two-sided markets are platform markets, but not all platform markets are two-sided markets. The critical aspect of a two-sided market is that the volume of interactions on the platform depends on both the relative prices charged to each side and the total price charged. This is the case when both sides value more users on the other side, known in literature as an “indirect network externality.”

An example of a one-sided platform market is a clothes retailer, where the volume of sales depends only on the total price, not the relative prices charged to buyers and producers. Conversely, YouTube is a two-sided market where both creators and watchers benefit from more users. Watchers benefit from more variety and quality, while creators benefit from more users and views. YouTube introduces a special category of creators, the advertisers, who benefit monetarily from views because consumers viewing their content are likely to purchase their goods.

The prices paid by YouTube users are not all monetary:

·         Watchers are charged an inconvenience fee in the form of advertisements.

·         Advertisers are charged a monetary fee.

·         Creators are not charged any fees.

Let’s assume the total fees for YouTube add up to $100. Say advertisers are charged $90, watchers face an inconvenience worth $10, and creators still enjoy $0 costs. In this scenario, the total volume of videos watched might be some number like 100,000.

Assume we change the price structure to advertisers being charged $80, watchers paying an inconvenience worth $10, and creators being charged $10 (keeping the total fees at $100). In this new scenario, the likely outcome is that the marginal creator will no longer create videos, and thus, the total volume of videos watched will fall.

Two-Sided Markets that Allow Money Exchange

The key to understanding Nostr’s value lies in its inbuilt payment mechanism—Bitcoin’s Lightning Network protocol. Although this protocol is not part of the Nostr codebase, the existing Nostr clients incorporate it to allow users to pay each other bitcoin with a simple user interface. This means that Nostr as a protocol is ideal for creating platforms where users can exchange monetary value. The mechanics and design choices of the Lightning network further augment Nostr’s value proposition more so than traditional payment systems like credit cards, PayPal, etc.

Key Problem: Chicken and Egg

So far, we have established that platform markets enable at least two groups of users to come together and exchange. The primary problem is that both groups will only use the platform if the other group is already using it, creating a classic chicken and egg scenario. Platforms operate by bringing groups of users together, making users reticent to switch to a new platform because they don’t know if the other users will be there. This gives existing platforms enormous power.

Guy Swann sums this up well in this Nostr note: note1695j0czewtkfwy7h4ne7k2ug706uwc7lendsq50prsfp8vwq8nfszdx4z7.

Competing with Existing Platforms: Divide and Conquer!

To compete with existing platforms, you need to divide and conquer. The original formulation for this strategy is given in both Caillaud and Jullien (2003) and Armstrong (2006). To take advantage of the indirect network externalities identified earlier, the divide and conquer strategy involves subsidising one side of the market to attract a large user base (the "divide" part) and then monetising the other side of the market (the "conquer" part).

Divide: Attract one side of the market by offering lower prices or subsidies. For example, offer free registration to one side. This subsidy is essential to kickstart the network effects, as a larger user base on one side increases the platform’s attractiveness to the other side. This was observed in the early days of YouTube, which was free for both creators and watchers.

Conquer: Once a substantial user base is established on the subsidised side, charge higher fees on the other side of the market. This can be seen in contemporary YouTube, where advertisers (a specific kind of creator) pay fees, and watchers deal with the inconvenience of watching ads (inconvenience is a non-price fee).

Implementing This Strategy in Your Platform:

So who are are you dividing, who are you conquering? Deciding which side to subsidise involves understanding which side offers more benefit to the other side. For example, in nightclubs (Wright, 2004), men and women go to interact. Men are assumed to gain more from each woman’s presence than vice versa, so nightclubs often subsidise women with free entry or drinks to attract men.

First, consider all your user groups. What brings them to your platform, what do they want to gain by interacting with the other user groups.

Think about, and identify, which group confers more value for the other group by being on the platform.

Then, think about how you can subsidise that user group. Free access is common. But Nostr allows seamless payment integration which encourages users to exchange money. A potential model for your platform could be that you charge a fee to both users based on how much value they send to each other. One way to subsidise users in this case is to reduce those fees.

Alternatively, you could pay users to join your platform using Nostr’s integration with the Lightning Network.

References:

·         Armstrong, M. (2006). Competition in two-sided markets. The RAND Journal of Economics, 37(3), 668-691.

·         Caillaud, B., & Jullien, B. (2003). Chicken & Egg: Competition among Intermediation Service Providers. The RAND Journal of Economics, 34(2), 309-328.

·         Wright, J. (2004). One-sided logic in two-sided markets. Review of Network Economics, 3(1).

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

n an inflationary system, the goal is often just to keep up.

With prices always rising, most of us are stuck in a race:\ Earn more to afford more.\ Spend before your money loses value.\ Monetize everything just to stay ahead of the curve.

Work becomes reactive.\ You hustle to outrun rising costs.\ You take on projects you don’t believe in just to make next month’s bills.\ Money decays. So you move faster, invest riskier, and burn out quicker.

But what happens when the curve flips?

A deflationary economy—like the one Bitcoin makes possible—rewards stillness, reflection, and intentionality.

Time favors the saver, not the spender.\ Money gains purchasing power.\ You’re no longer punished for patience.

You don’t have to convert your energy into cash before it loses value.\ You don’t have to be always on.\ You can actually afford to wait for the right work.

And when you do work—it means more.

💡 The “bullshit jobs” David Graeber wrote about start to disappear.\ There’s no need to look busy just to justify your existence.\ There’s no reward for parasitic middle layers.\ Instead, value flows to real craft, real care, and real proof of work—philosophically and literally.

So what does a job look like in that world?

— A farmer building soil instead of chasing subsidies.\ — An engineer optimizing for simplicity instead of speed.\ — A craftsman making one perfect table instead of ten cheap ones.\ — A writer telling the truth without clickbait.\ — A builder who says no more than they say yes.

You choose work that endures—not because it pays instantly, but because it’s worth doing.

The deflationary future isn’t a fantasy.\ It’s a recalibration.

It’s not about working less.\ It’s about working better.

That’s what Bitcoin taught me.\ That’s what I’m trying to live now.

---

🟠 If you’re trying to align your work with these values, I’d love to connect.\ Zap this post, reply with your story, or follow along as I build—without permission, but with conviction.\ [https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

According to the ECB Executive Board member, the launch of the digital euro depends on the timing of the EU regulation.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is making progress in preparing for the digital euro. According to Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board member and coordinator of the project, the technical phase “is proceeding quickly and on schedule,” but moving to operational implementation still requires political approval of the regulation at the European level.

Speaking at the ‘Voices on the Future’ event organized by Ansa and Asvis, Cipollone outlined a possible timeline:

“If the regulation is approved at the start of 2026 — in the best-case scenario for the European legislative process — we could see the first transactions with the digital euro by mid-2028.”

Cipollone also highlighted Europe’s current dependence on electronic payment systems managed by non-European companies:

“Today in Europe, whenever we don’t use cash, any transaction online or at the supermarket has to go through credit cards, with their fees. The payment system relies on companies that aren’t based in Europe. You can see why it would make sense to have a system fully under our control.”

For the ECB board member, the digital euro would act as a direct alternative to cash in the digital world, working like “a banknote you can spend anywhere in Europe for any purpose.”

The digital euro project is part of the ECB’s broader strategy to strengthen the independence of Europe’s financial system. According to Cipollone and the Central Bank, Europe’s digital currency would be a key step toward greater autonomy in electronic payments, reducing reliance on infrastructure and services outside the European Union.

The post ECB: digital euro by mid-2028, says Cipollone appeared first on Atlas21.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

“Can you help make our website good?” is one of the most loaded questions I get. There are many aspects to this question’s galactic gravitas, and their root is another question: what makes a website good?

Before we get there, we have a few other questions that need answering. The first is whether you actually need a website. Would a social media presence and a Google Maps listing do the same job? Or do you need a dedicated online shop or some other functionality that a Facebook Page can’t provide? Who’s your target market? Is it people who don’t have social media accounts or wouldn’t want to mix their social media presence with your business?

Let’s say you’ve gone through all of that and decided you do indeed need a website. What makes a website “good” can be divided into two aspects: engineering and design. In the context of websites, engineering is the behind the scenes stuff that makes it go (think of the mechanical bits of a car), and design is how it looks and feels (all the stuff you see and touch in a car). Unfortunately for us, most places these overlap they’re also juxtaposed. To see this in action head over to simple.scalebright.ca. You’ll notice that it loads extremely quickly and works well on screens of any size. This site was built with an “engineering first” mindset. Designers generally loath this kind of website. Not because it loads fast or scales well, but because to do those things I had to sacrifice design. There are no graphics or images, one font, and only four total colours in use (if you count black and white). There are no fancy contact forms, loading animations, white space considerations, borders, boxes, or bulbous billowing bedazzlements. Just cold, ruthless efficiency. I love it! But it’s not necessarily good.

This takes us into the next consideration. A good website doesn’t necessarily appeal to you; it’s supposed to appeal to your target audience. You might not be your target audience. If you are, great! That’ll make figuring out what your target audience wants in a website easier. Either way, be sure to have some chats with them and keep what they say in mind.

Okay, I know I just finished saying that the highly simplified version of my website isn’t good, but I want to warn you away from the opposite: over-design and over-engineering. Over-design usually manifests as visual overload; too many colours, too many graphics or photos, too much motion. Over-engineering is too much mechanical complexity; a one-page professional bio site doesn’t need to run on a dedicated server on WordPress with fifteen plugins.

There isn’t going to be a one-size-fits-all answer to “what makes a website good?”, because no two website are going to be identical. You’ll probably end up engaging a professional website design firm to both help answer that question for your specific scenario, and to build it for you. Here are some of the questions they’re going to ask and some hints for answering them.

What are your colours, fonts, logos, and other visual assets? If you don’t have these the firm should be able to help (usually for an extra fee), though smaller firms may need to subcontract the work out.

What are the core functions of your website? Is it an online store? Professional bio? Hospitality booking site? A link hub or landing page?

Do you have your website copy ready to go? “Copy” in this context refers to the text that will go on your website. Slogans, product and service descriptions, staff bios, and anything else that consists of a collection of words. If you don’t have your copy, you’ll either need to prepare to write it yourself or hire a third party to write it for you. It’s been my experience that website design firms are very strict about not writing copy, and generally won’t subcontract it either.

Do you have a preferred CMS? A CMS is a content management system, which is a fancy way of saying “thing that makes your website easier to add content to”. WordPress, Joomla, and Drupal are CMSs. Squarespace, GoDaddy, and Wix could be considered CMSs for our purposes too. 99% of you probably don’t care, and that’s a perfectly acceptable answer to give your firm.

What’s your budget? While most of us would probably prefer to spend zero, groceries continue to cost money, so none of us work for free. As of the writing of this article, a multi-page website built by a design firm will range between $10,000 and $30,000.

Want someone to “just take care of” all this website shenanigans for you? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

I’ve been on the internet since the mid 90s. Once I started “cyber-schooling” a few years later my time spent in front of a screen skyrocketed. One of the time vortices both for and outside of school was finding things on the internet. Everything from encyclopedia-style information pieces to news articles to music to games; the hunt was relentless.

Search engines were the primary was this was done. In the early days my school officially recommended Ask Jeeves, but the students found Google’s results much more thorough. Us little scientists-in-training were even running parallel searches, recording outcomes, and sharing results. We eventually got in trouble for wrongthink...I mean...not following instructions, but were vindicated soon after when the school's recommendations changed to "use whatever search engine you like, as long as the results chosen are quality sources".

The problem of “how to find things on the internet” has recently returned. “Google it” is no longer the genericized verb it once was. Grand tomes and PHD theses have been written on the subject of why, but most point to motives and monetization. The original problem was finding things, and the solution was search. But how would the bills get paid? Computers are expensive! Printing newspapers is expensive too, and the solution was the same for both: sell advertising space. Unfortunately for us users, that has become the primary business for much of the internet. Search engines are no longer motivated to get you the results you’re looking for as quickly as possible, but to keep you on their platform looking at ads. Pundits have coined the term “enshittification” (which even has it’s own Wikipedia page now) to describe the phenomenon.

Worry not, for not all is lost! There are still ways to find things on the internet. Methods vary depending on what kind of things you’re looking for. One of my most common searches is for how to do things; everything from home repairs to mechanical to technology. My primary method for this is to use Google to search Reddit. Reddit is a massive collection of forums with almost two decades of human-generated content. Unfortunately it’s built-in search is mostly terrible, so that’s where Google comes in. Do the same Google search you’d normally do (say, “how to fix a squeaky door”), but add “site:reddit.com” to the end. This tells Google to only show results from Reddit. What you’ll get is forum threads and comments from (mostly) real humans with real human experiences. Of course humans and their commentary can still be deeply flawed, so stay skeptical of what you read, but it’s largely a much better experience than a naked Google search.

Less mainstream search engines are trying their hands at paid subscriptions as a way to avoid the advertising hell-spiral. Kagi is one I’ve been trying, though admittedly not as often as I should. They do have a free tier if you want to sample it.

A more high-tech solution is AI systems. ChatGPT recently released a tool specifically for internet searches, though their general prompt tool has been usable for this for a while. Kagi also has an AI-powered search tier. Both are pretty expensive for casual users though.

Another recommendation is to frequent interest or topic-specific forums and blogs. If you find yourself regularly needing vehicle repair tips, try joining a forum on the subject. Same goes for most other do-it-yourself tasks. You may even make some internet friends! Blogs are also a great way to find things and get connected to experts (shameless plug fully intended).

Lastly, some interesting things are happening on the Nostr protocol that could help bring information together without the commercial overreach. (See “Become Unbannable” for more on Nostr.) I’ve been using a site called Zap Cooking (https://zap.cooking) to browse recipes. Recipes here are Nostr notes (posts) that have been formatted and categorized, and can be commented on, rated, and tipped, all using the free and open Nostr protocol. No algorithms, no banks, no governments, and no ads!

Want help with or training on finding things on the internet? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

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Bitcoin has always been rooted in freedom and resistance to authority. I get that many of you are conflicted about the US Government stacking but by design we cannot stop anyone from using bitcoin. Many have asked me for my thoughts on the matter, so let’s rip it.

Concern

One of the most glaring issues with the strategic bitcoin reserve is its foundation, built on stolen bitcoin. For those of us who value private property this is an obvious betrayal of our core principles. Rather than proof of work, the bitcoin that seeds this reserve has been taken by force. The US Government should return the bitcoin stolen from Bitfinex and the Silk Road.

Using stolen bitcoin for the reserve creates a perverse incentive. If governments see bitcoin as a valuable asset, they will ramp up efforts to confiscate more bitcoin. The precedent is a major concern, and I stand strongly against it, but it should be also noted that governments were already seizing coin before the reserve so this is not really a change in policy.

Ideally all seized bitcoin should be burned, by law. This would align incentives properly and make it less likely for the government to actively increase coin seizures. Due to the truly scarce properties of bitcoin, all burned bitcoin helps existing holders through increased purchasing power regardless. This change would be unlikely but those of us in policy circles should push for it regardless. It would be best case scenario for American bitcoiners and would create a strong foundation for the next century of American leadership.

Optimism

The entire point of bitcoin is that we can spend or save it without permission. That said, it is a massive benefit to not have one of the strongest governments in human history actively trying to ruin our lives.

Since the beginning, bitcoiners have faced horrible regulatory trends. KYC, surveillance, and legal cases have made using bitcoin and building bitcoin businesses incredibly difficult. It is incredibly important to note that over the past year that trend has reversed for the first time in a decade. A strategic bitcoin reserve is a key driver of this shift. By holding bitcoin, the strongest government in the world has signaled that it is not just a fringe technology but rather truly valuable, legitimate, and worth stacking.

This alignment of incentives changes everything. The US Government stacking proves bitcoin’s worth. The resulting purchasing power appreciation helps all of us who are holding coin and as bitcoin succeeds our government receives direct benefit. A beautiful positive feedback loop.

Realism

We are trending in the right direction. A strategic bitcoin reserve is a sign that the state sees bitcoin as an asset worth embracing rather than destroying. That said, there is a lot of work left to be done. We cannot be lulled into complacency, the time to push forward is now, and we cannot take our foot off the gas. We have a seat at the table for the first time ever. Let's make it worth it.

We must protect the right to free usage of bitcoin and other digital technologies. Freedom in the digital age must be taken and defended, through both technical and political avenues. Multiple privacy focused developers are facing long jail sentences for building tools that protect our freedom. These cases are not just legal battles. They are attacks on the soul of bitcoin. We need to rally behind them, fight for their freedom, and ensure the ethos of bitcoin survives this new era of government interest. The strategic reserve is a step in the right direction, but it is up to us to hold the line and shape the future.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Recently we have seen a wave of high profile X accounts hacked. These attacks have exposed the fragility of the status quo security model used by modern social media platforms like X. Many users have asked if nostr fixes this, so lets dive in. How do these types of attacks translate into the world of nostr apps? For clarity, I will use X’s security model as representative of most big tech social platforms and compare it to nostr.

The Status Quo

On X, you never have full control of your account. Ultimately to use it requires permission from the company. They can suspend your account or limit your distribution. Theoretically they can even post from your account at will. An X account is tied to an email and password. Users can also opt into two factor authentication, which adds an extra layer of protection, a login code generated by an app. In theory, this setup works well, but it places a heavy burden on users. You need to create a strong, unique password and safeguard it. You also need to ensure your email account and phone number remain secure, as attackers can exploit these to reset your credentials and take over your account. Even if you do everything responsibly, there is another weak link in X infrastructure itself. The platform’s infrastructure allows accounts to be reset through its backend. This could happen maliciously by an employee or through an external attacker who compromises X’s backend. When an account is compromised, the legitimate user often gets locked out, unable to post or regain control without contacting X’s support team. That process can be slow, frustrating, and sometimes fruitless if support denies the request or cannot verify your identity. Often times support will require users to provide identification info in order to regain access, which represents a privacy risk. The centralized nature of X means you are ultimately at the mercy of the company’s systems and staff.

Nostr Requires Responsibility

Nostr flips this model radically. Users do not need permission from a company to access their account, they can generate as many accounts as they want, and cannot be easily censored. The key tradeoff here is that users have to take complete responsibility for their security. Instead of relying on a username, password, and corporate servers, nostr uses a private key as the sole credential for your account. Users generate this key and it is their responsibility to keep it safe. As long as you have your key, you can post. If someone else gets it, they can post too. It is that simple. This design has strong implications. Unlike X, there is no backend reset option. If your key is compromised or lost, there is no customer support to call. In a compromise scenario, both you and the attacker can post from the account simultaneously. Neither can lock the other out, since nostr relays simply accept whatever is signed with a valid key.

The benefit? No reliance on proprietary corporate infrastructure.. The negative? Security rests entirely on how well you protect your key.

Future Nostr Security Improvements

For many users, nostr’s standard security model, storing a private key on a phone with an encrypted cloud backup, will likely be sufficient. It is simple and reasonably secure. That said, nostr’s strength lies in its flexibility as an open protocol. Users will be able to choose between a range of security models, balancing convenience and protection based on need.

One promising option is a web of trust model for key rotation. Imagine pre-selecting a group of trusted friends. If your account is compromised, these people could collectively sign an event announcing the compromise to the network and designate a new key as your legitimate one. Apps could handle this process seamlessly in the background, notifying followers of the switch without much user interaction. This could become a popular choice for average users, but it is not without tradeoffs. It requires trust in your chosen web of trust, which might not suit power users or large organizations. It also has the issue that some apps may not recognize the key rotation properly and followers might get confused about which account is “real.”

For those needing higher security, there is the option of multisig using FROST (Flexible Round-Optimized Schnorr Threshold). In this setup, multiple keys must sign off on every action, including posting and updating a profile. A hacker with just one key could not do anything. This is likely overkill for most users due to complexity and inconvenience, but it could be a game changer for large organizations, companies, and governments. Imagine the White House nostr account requiring signatures from multiple people before a post goes live, that would be much more secure than the status quo big tech model.

Another option are hardware signers, similar to bitcoin hardware wallets. Private keys are kept on secure, offline devices, separate from the internet connected phone or computer you use to broadcast events. This drastically reduces the risk of remote hacks, as private keys never touches the internet. It can be used in combination with multisig setups for extra protection. This setup is much less convenient and probably overkill for most but could be ideal for governments, companies, or other high profile accounts.

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Nostr’s security model is not perfect but is robust and versatile. Ultimately users are in control and security is their responsibility. Apps will give users multiple options to choose from and users will choose what best fits their need.

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“Sam did it!” You can hear the edge in the child’s voice as they attempt to shift blame for whatever minor misdeed they may-or-may-not have masterminded. In the court of humanity our feelings take wide precedence over objective justice. Even if there’s no fallout or formal punishment for that thing we did wrong, we really don’t like taking the blame.

Personal responsibility isn’t only about taking blame for the negative. As we’ll define it for the purposes of this article, it means taking ownership of decisions you make and the actions you take based on them. By extension you will also be taking ownership of the outcomes, both the successes and failures. Your mind is probably already imagining all sorts of scenarios this could apply to both at work and at home, but our focus will be mostly in the workplace.

Imagine working in a utopia where everyone perfectly executes personal responsibility. You would never have to worry about someone blaming you for the failure of their project, because it’s their project. You would know in advance that if your project is a success you’ll get 100% of the accolades, because it’s your project. With these two things alone, wouldn’t you feel a new level of motivation to give it your all? To take risks and innovate? You would have a new level of trust in your coworkers too. There would be no motive for micromanagement, for doing so would mean taking someone else’s responsibility upon yourself. Morale and productivity would skyrocket!

You can easily imagine the opposite as well; you may have thought of your own workplace in a negative light as soon as you read the title and clicked the link. Unfortunately in I.T. (being a panoptic presence in most organizations) we’re an easy target. “I can’t work, my computer’s broken, and I.T. hasn’t fixed it yet! They’re so slow, am-I-right?” “The file deleted itself; stupid computers!” “It’s not my fault that we didn’t deliver on time; the printer’s broken and it’s not my job to fix it!” sigh Enough gloom, let’s move on to how to make personal responsibility great again!

It's a simple concept; remind yourself that our decisions are ours, our actions are ours, and the results are ours. No exceptions. I’ll give you an example. When my wife and I are travelling somewhere it’s usually up to me to decide where to eat. I’m usually driving, and I’m also the head of our household, so it’s my decision. My decision, my actions, and most importantly, my results to own. If I choose a place and my wife doesn’t like the ambiance or menu or amount of cheese they put on everything, that’s on me. The weight can be heavy and feel unjust. But it isn’t unjust. It’s perfectly, objectively just. It’s my decision, my actions, and my results to own. There are upsides for both of us; I am now further motivated to pick someplace I know she’ll like and she gets to play “Passenger Princess”, and I get to bathe in the social bragging rights of being crowned “King of the Husbands” for being intuitive and attentive enough to know what she’d like and get it for her. It’s timeless and primordial: “Oh husband, you hunted and brought back a mammoth! I love mammoth steak! You are brave and strong and clearly the greatest of all husbands!” Her words would eco through our cave commune and all would look to us for hot tips to share on their relationship blog cave paintings.

You might still be thinking of your workplace and your coworkers who seem to want to blame you for everything that goes wrong. What can you do to get them on the personal responsibility train? The only way to do it is to lead by example. The moment you try to tell them or make them they’ll see it as an attack and blame you, which is exactly the problem you’re trying to avoid! You can’t suggest it, hint at it, or leave an anonymous note. You can’t have someone else talk to them about it or send this article and say, “I read this and thought it was interesting and thought you would think it’s interesting too.” This only way to teach others about personal responsibility is to show them. Which makes me writing this massively ironic. I take full responsibility for this!

My last tip is to make sure to celebrate the wins, both yours and other’s! This is especially true for others you’re trying to influence. Remember the accolades we imagined getting earlier and how much that would motivate you? That’s what you’re trying to instill in others. Positive reinforcement is much stronger than negative, so hand your praises out like candy!

Want to go against my recommendations and bring me into your workplace to talk about personal responsibility? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 47c860d3:b3f71b74

ไขความลับรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8: ศาสตร์แห่งการบีบอัดข้อมูลสื่อสารดิจิทัล คืนหนึ่ง ผมนั่งอยู่หน้าจอคอมพิวเตอร์ มองสัญญาณ FT8 กระพริบไปมา ส่งข้อความสั้นๆ ซ้ำไปซ้ำมา "CQ HS1IWX OK03" แล้วก็รอให้ใครสักคนตอบกลับ วนลูปไปอย่างไม่รู้จบ จนเกิดคำถามขึ้นมาในหัว... “นี่เรานั่งทำอะไรกันแน่?” FT8 มันควรเป็นอะไรมากกว่านี้ใช่ไหม? ไม่ใช่แค่การส่งคำสั้นๆ 13 ตัวอักษรไปมาเท่านั้น! เอ๊ะ! เดี๋ยวก่อน... 13 ตัวอักษร? ถ้าการส่งข้อความจำกัดที่ 13 ตัวอักษร แล้วทำไมข้อความอย่าง "CQ HS1IWX OK03" ซึ่งดูเหมือนจะมี 14 ตัวอักษร (รวมช่องว่าง) ถึงสามารถส่งได้? นี่มันต้องมีอะไรซ่อนอยู่! ระบบ FT8 ใช้เวทมนตร์อะไร หรือมันมีเทคนิคการเข้ารหัสแบบลับๆ ที่เรายังไม่รู้? และคำว่า "13 ตัวอักษร" ที่เขาพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึงอะไรกันแน่? แล้วลองนึกดูสิ... ถ้าเราอยู่ในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน ต้องส่งข้อความที่สั้น กระชับ และมีความหมาย ในขณะที่แบตเตอรี่เหลือน้อย กำลังส่งต่ำ และอุปกรณ์มีเพียงเครื่องวิทยุขนาดเล็กกับสายอากาศชั่วคราวและมือถือ บางครั้ง FT8 อาจจะเป็นตัวเลือกเดียวที่ช่วยให้เราส่งสัญญาณขอความช่วยเหลือได้ เพราะมันสามารถถอดรหัสได้แม้สัญญาณอ่อนจนแทบจะมองไม่เห็น! ดังนั้น ผมต้องขุดลึกลงไป เพื่อไขความลับของรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8 และหาคำตอบว่า ทำไม FT8 สามารถส่งข้อความบางอย่างที่ดูเหมือนยาวเกินขีดจำกัดได้? พร้อมกับสำรวจว่ามันสามารถช่วยเหลือเราในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉินได้อย่างไร! อะไรคือความหมายที่แท้จริงของ 13 ตัวอักษร ? เมื่อเริ่มเจาะลึกลงไป ผมจึงได้รู้ว่า 13 ตัวอักษรที่เราพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึง ข้อความใน Free Text Mode หรือก็คือ ข้อความที่ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสในรูปแบบมาตรฐานของ FT8 หากเราส่งข้อความแบบอิสระ เช่น "HELLO WORLD!" หรือ "EMERGENCY CALL" เราจะถูกจำกัดแค่ 13 ตัวอักษรเท่านั้น เพราะข้อความเหล่านี้ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสให้เหมาะสมกับโปรโตคอลของระบบ FT8 แต่ถ้าเป็น ข้อความมาตรฐานที่ถูกกำหนดรูปแบบไว้แล้ว เช่น Callsign + Grid หรือ รายงาน SNR (-10, 599, RR73) ระบบ FT8 จะใช้การเข้ารหัส 77-bit Structured Message ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถส่งข้อมูลได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร! อะไรคือ โครงสร้าง 77-bit Message ใน FT8 FT8 ใช้ 77 บิต สำหรับการเข้ารหัสข้อมูล โดยแบ่งออกเป็น 3 ส่วนหลัก: ส่วนของข้อมูล จำนวนบิต รายละเอียด Callsign 1 (ต้นทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีที่ส่ง Callsign 2 (ปลายทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีปลายทาง หรือ CQ Exchange Data 21 บิต Grid Locator หรือข้อมูลอื่น ๆ รวมทั้งหมด = 28 + 28 + 21 = 77 บิต การที่ FT8 ใช้โครงสร้างแบบนี้ ข้อความที่ถูกเข้ารหัสในมาตรฐาน FT8 จึงสามารถส่งได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร เช่น "CQ HS1IWX OK03" นั้นถูกเข้ารหัสให้อยู่ใน 77 บิต ไม่ใช่ Free Text แบบปกติ ทำให้สามารถส่งได้โดยไม่มีปัญหา! แต่ข้อสำคัญมันคือโปโตคอลของระบบ FT8 ในปัจจุบัน ถ้าเราต้องการ เข้ารหัสเองในรูปแบบของเราเราก็ต้องพัฒนาโปรแกรม FT8 ของเราเอง (ผมทำไม่เป็นครับ555) ก็ใช้ของเขาไปก็ได้ แล้วก็มาพัฒนาระบบ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร กันน่าจะสนุกกว่า ส่วนเรื่องรายละเอียดวิธีการเข้ารหัสผมคงไม่พูดถึงนะ เดี๋ยวจะวิชาการน่าเบื่อไปครับ ใครสนใจก็ไปศึกษาต่อกันเอาเองครับ การเข้ารหัสนี้จะใช้ร่วมกับเทคนิค FEC (Forward Error Correction) ใน FT8 ซึ่งเป็นหนึ่งในเทคนิคที่ทำให้ FT8 สามารถถอดรหัสข้อความได้แม้ในสภาวะสัญญาณอ่อน คือการใช้ Forward Error Correction (FEC) หรือ การแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดล่วงหน้า ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อมูลที่อาจเกิดการสูญหายในระหว่างการส่งสัญญาณได้ โดย FT8 ใช้ Reed-Solomon (RS) Error Correction Code ซึ่งเป็นอัลกอริธึมที่เพิ่มบิตสำรองเพื่อช่วยตรวจจับและแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดในข้อความที่ส่งไป และ ใช้ Convolutional Encoding และ Viterbi Decoding ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถแก้ไขข้อมูลที่ผิดพลาดจากสัญญาณรบกวนได้ ซึ่งเมื่อสัญญาณอ่อน ข้อมูลบางส่วนอาจสูญหาย แต่ FEC ช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อความได้แม้ข้อมูลบางส่วนจะขาดหาย ทำให้ผลลัพธ์คือ FT8 สามารถทำงานได้แม้ระดับสัญญาณต่ำถึง -20 dB! ซึ่งส่วนนี้ผมก็ยังไม่เข้าใจมันดีเท่าไหร่ครับ อิอิ ฟังเขามาอีกที สิ่งที่เราทำได้ตอนนี้ในโปรแกรม FT8 ในปัจจุบันก็คือ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษรถ้าเรา อยากส่งข้อความฉุกเฉินภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร ให้ได้ข้อมูลมากที่สุด เราต้องใช้เทคนิคต่อไปนี้: การใช้ตัวย่อและรหัสสากล • SOS 1234 BKK แทน "ขอความช่วยเหลือที่พิกัด 1234 ใกล้กรุงเทพ" • WX BKK T35C แทน "สภาพอากาศกรุงเทพ 35 องศา" • ALRT TSUNAMI แทน "เตือนภัยสึนามิ" ใช้ข้อความที่อ่านเข้าใจง่าย • ใช้โค้ดสั้นๆ เช่น "QRZ EMRG?" แทน "ใครรับสัญญาณฉุกเฉิน?" การส่งข้อความเป็นชุด • เฟรม 1: MSG1 BKK STORM1 • เฟรม 2: MSG2 BKK STORM2 • เฟรม 3: MSG3 BKK NOW “การฝึกฝนเพื่อทำความเข้าใจการสื่อสารเป็นสิ่งสำคัญ เพราะเมื่อได้รับข้อความเหล่านี้ เราจะสามารถถอดรหัสและติดตามข้อมูลได้อย่างทันท่วงที” ครั้งนี้อาจเป็นเพียงการค้นพบอีกด้านหนึ่งของ FT8… หรือมันอาจเปลี่ยนมุมมองของคุณที่มีต่อโหมดสื่อสารดิจิทัลไปตลอดกาลก็ได้ แต่เดี๋ยวก่อน—นี่มันอะไรกัน!? จู่ๆ บนจอคอมพิวเตอร์ของผมก็ปรากฏคอลซายที่ไม่คุ้นตา D1IFU—คอลซายที่ไม่มีอยู่ในฐานข้อมูลของ ITU แต่กลับปรากฏขึ้นบนคลื่นความถี่ของเรา D1…? มันมาได้ยังไง? แล้วทันใดนั้น ผมก็ฉุกคิดขึ้นมา—มันคือคอลซายจากพื้นที่ Donetsk หรือ Luhansk พื้นที่ที่เต็มไปด้วยความขัดแย้ง ดินแดนที่เราคิดว่าเงียบงันภายใต้เสียงระเบิดและความไม่แน่นอน แต่ตอนนี้ กลับมีสัญญาณเล็กๆ ปรากฏขึ้นบน FT8 มันคือใครกัน? เป็นทหาร? เป็นพลเรือนที่พยายามติดต่อโลกภายนอก? หรือเป็นเพียงนักวิทยุสมัครเล่นที่ยังคงเฝ้าฟังแม้โลกจะเต็มไปด้วยความวุ่นวาย? แต่สิ่งหนึ่งที่แน่ชัด… “นี่คือสัญญาณแห่งชีวิต” จบข่าว. 🚀📡

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

The Americans just had a big election, and Canada’s next has been effectively underway for a while now. Automated moderation systems are being increasingly relied upon by large social media networks and are running amok with bans (I may be biased on this one, see “The Technology Deleted Me”). Opinions are everywhere, and many social media users live in fear of getting booted from their platform of choice over an innocuous post. “Of choice” usually being where the largest concentration of their connections also have accounts. For me that’s Facebook; for others it might be Instagram, Snapchat, Bluesky, or X.

What if there was a social media network built in such a way that you couldn’t be banned? Where your posts couldn’t be removed? Where you couldn’t be “put in the corner” by a group admin who didn’t like that the recipe page you shared had the word “crap” in it? Wouldn’t that be great? Yes, this does mean extreme (or straight-up illegal) content could be posted, but that’s happening on mainstream social media as well. Monitoring and banning isn’t working there so there’s no reason to repeat it elsewhere.

The unbannable social media I’m bringing to you today is called “Nostr”; "Notes and Other Stuff Transmitted by Relays”. How it works is explained in the name; notes (posts) are transmitted from a client (app on your device) to relays (servers) which are then transmitted to other relays and clients connected to them. I’ll explain in more detail as we go through the setup process.

Step 1: Pick a client. I like Damus on iOS and noStrudel on desktop. Nostur is also popular on iOS. Amethyst and Primal are popular on Android. Pick the one you most like the look of.

Step 2: Set up an “account”. On Nostr you won’t have an account in the traditional sense. You’ll instead have a public/private key set (also known as a keypair). Think of your public key as your username and your private key as your password; only you won’t need to pick, memorize, or regularly use either of them. Your client will do most of that for you. Install the app of your choosing, launch it, and you’ll be walked through the account creation process. I strongly recommend copying your public key (the long random string that starts with “npub”) and your private key (the long random string that starts with “nsec”) to a password manager (see “Ugh, Passwords!” for more on password managers).

Optional: Step 2.5: Set up your “NIP-05 identifier”. This is totally optional, and can be done later if you aren’t up for it right now. A NIP-05 identifier looks identical to an email address (name@domain.something) and is used as an easier way for others to find your profile. There are several free and paid services for this, most of which come with other benefits and services. A popular free one is Nostrcheck.me.

Step 3: Choose some relays. Most clients will have a pre-configured set of public relays that work fine for most users. If you think of yourself as just a normal person trying to not be banned, you can skip this step. For everyone else, reach out to me for recommendations. A whole ‘nother article could be written on the subject of relays for niche needs.

Step 4: Find friends to follow. You can start with me if you like, by searching for my public key (npub1kw893e70hve5ymc8kxr75d8m9wcuaaasqzn37xvea6l4f39q04fs7zusa4), or my NIP-05 (tnperron@nostr.theorangepillapp.com).

Optional: Step 5: Post something! Also totally optional, but highly recommended! Even a simple “Hello, world!” will let others visiting your profile know that your account is being actively used.

That’s it, you’re now unbannable! How, you ask? There are two keys to this (pun fully intended). The first is that your public/private keypair is yours to control, can be loaded into any client, and used to connect to any relay (though you may need to pay for access to some). The second is that if someone operating a relay decides they don’t want to relay your posts anymore, you can still use any other on the big wide internet. You can even run your own relay if you want! No one can stop you!

Want help with any of these steps, or more details on advanced options like running your own node? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

In much of the world, it is incredibly difficult to access U.S. dollars. Local currencies are often poorly managed and riddled with corruption. Billions of people demand a more reliable alternative. While the dollar has its own issues of corruption and mismanagement, it is widely regarded as superior to the fiat currencies it competes with globally. As a result, Tether has found massive success providing low cost, low friction access to dollars. Tether claims 400 million total users, is on track to add 200 million more this year, processes 8.1 million transactions daily, and facilitates $29 billion in daily transfers. Furthermore, their estimates suggest nearly 40% of users rely on it as a savings tool rather than just a transactional currency.

Tether’s rise has made the company a financial juggernaut. Last year alone, Tether raked in over $13 billion in profit, with a lean team of less than 100 employees. Their business model is elegantly simple: hold U.S. Treasuries and collect the interest. With over $113 billion in Treasuries, Tether has turned a straightforward concept into a profit machine.

Tether’s success has resulted in many competitors eager to claim a piece of the pie. This has triggered a massive venture capital grift cycle in USD tokens, with countless projects vying to dethrone Tether. Due to Tether’s entrenched network effect, these challengers face an uphill battle with little realistic chance of success. Most educated participants in the space likely recognize this reality but seem content to perpetuate the grift, hoping to cash out by dumping their equity positions on unsuspecting buyers before they realize the reality of the situation.

Historically, Tether’s greatest vulnerability has been U.S. government intervention. For over a decade, the company operated offshore with few allies in the U.S. establishment, making it a major target for regulatory action. That dynamic has shifted recently and Tether has seized the opportunity. By actively courting U.S. government support, Tether has fortified their position. This strategic move will likely cement their status as the dominant USD token for years to come.

While undeniably a great tool for the millions of users that rely on it, Tether is not without flaws. As a centralized, trusted third party, it holds the power to freeze or seize funds at its discretion. Corporate mismanagement or deliberate malpractice could also lead to massive losses at scale. In their goal of mitigating regulatory risk, Tether has deepened ties with law enforcement, mirroring some of the concerns of potential central bank digital currencies. In practice, Tether operates as a corporate CBDC alternative, collaborating with authorities to surveil and seize funds. The company proudly touts partnerships with leading surveillance firms and its own data reveals cooperation in over 1,000 law enforcement cases, with more than $2.5 billion in funds frozen.

---

The global demand for Tether is undeniable and the company’s profitability reflects its unrivaled success. Tether is owned and operated by bitcoiners and will likely continue to push forward strategic goals that help the movement as a whole. Recent efforts to mitigate the threat of U.S. government enforcement will likely solidify their network effect and stifle meaningful adoption of rival USD tokens or CBDCs. Yet, for all their achievements, Tether is simply a worse form of money than bitcoin. Tether requires trust in a centralized entity, while bitcoin can be saved or spent without permission. Furthermore, Tether is tied to the value of the US Dollar which is designed to lose purchasing power over time, while bitcoin, as a truly scarce asset, is designed to increase in purchasing power with adoption. As people awaken to the risks of Tether’s control, and the benefits bitcoin provides, bitcoin adoption will likely surpass it.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

The internet has had tutorials for job applications for a while; I remember searching for and reviewing them as part of “Career and Life Management (CALM)” in grade school. But it still never hurts to go back to the basics!

Applications fall into two categories; what I’ll call “human-read” and “machine-read”. Machine-read applications are specifically designed for automated recruitment systems. These systems tend to require specific layouts and formatting, as well as focus on keywords and academic degrees (even if the job doesn’t require them). They don’t read very well for humans though. I’d also argue that you probably don’t want to work for an employer who uses such systems, but that’s a separate topic. Human-read applications are as the name suggests; applications designed for human review. Those are the type we’re going to focus on today.

Our goals with our application are going to be to maximize the chances the receiver (usually a receptionist, HR staff, or recruiter) will pass along our application to the decision maker (usually HR staff or interview panel member) who will shortlist you for an interview, and to convey all the relevant information to the interview panel before your interview. We’re going to do this by creating a cover letter and resume combo that is unique, but also follows a professional format.

Let’s start with the page template we’re going to use for both documents. Start with a blank page. In the header in the upper left corner, list your name, email, and town & province. Make your name 5 to 8 font sizes larger than the rest, and bold if the font needs more pop. In the upper right corner, write yourself a short byline that would make a Madison Avenue advertising executive proud. Workshop it with your friends or family, but don’t worry about spending too much time on it. Mine says “Process management, Results through consistent and conscientious excellence”. The idea is to have your audience say to themselves, “ooo, that sounds professional”, then move on. Make the first line the same font size as your name. Next, add a splash of colour or some basic shapes as a background to the header. Pick a maximum of two colours and a minimalist geometric design. Make sure it’s simple; if it’s too busy it’ll look like a primary school art project. Again, you want your audience say to themselves, “ooo, that looks professional”, then move on. Now go to the first line in the body of the document and type “title”, then go to the third line and type “body”. Make the title font the same size as your name in the header, and change it to the primary colour of your header background. Finally, save two separate copies of this file; one labelled “your name resume” and the other labelled “your name cover letter”.

Congratulations, the design part is over! If you’re like me, that was the hard part. On to the content! Open the cover letter document. Change the title text to “To:”. Go to the body line and paste in the following. For the listeners, you can find the text to be copied in the written version of this post on our website.

``` Receiver name Receiver email Receiver title Receiver organization Receiver city, province

Submission date

Greeting, Paragraph 1: Brief personal introduction and job being applied for. Paragraph 2: Brief professional introduction, framed as how you would be a good fit for the organization. Paragraph 3: Extended professional introduction, framed as how you be a good fit for this specific job. Paragraph 4: Three to four questions you would have for the interview panel if you were chosen to be interviewed. Paragraph 5: Follow-up and interview availability. Sign-off and signature. ```

Congratulations, you now have your own personalized cover letter template! Simply replace the placeholder and instruction text with the real thing. Five paragraphs may seem like a lot, but if you’re sufficiently brief (as you should be), the whole thing should fit on a single page. If it spills over, rework the paragraph text until it does. Turning to a second page has an ethereal effect that will make your cover letter feel like “too much”. It’s purely emotional and subconscious, but it’s real and to be avoided if you want to make a good first impression, which is your cover letter’s primary purpose!

Save and close, and open the resume. Center the title on the page and change the text to “Executive Summary”. Move to the body and paste the following. Again, for the listeners, you can find the text to be copied in the written version on our website.

``` First highlighted skill category or character trait paragraph. Two to three sentences. Second highlighted skill category or character trait paragraph. Two to three sentences. Third highlighted skill category or character trait paragraph. Two to three sentences. Bulleted list of three to six specific soft skills.

Centered title: Professional or Work Experience (choose one) Employer - City, Province - years worked (i.e. 2015-2020 or 2022-current) Job title Two to three item bulleted list summarizing duties. Can be written long form, but be brief. (copy this as many times as needed)

Centered title: Education, Certifications, & Training (remove words that don’t apply to you) Title Certifying or training body name, City, Province (copy this as many times as needed)

Centered title: Proficiencies Bulleted list of five to ten specific hard skills. Do not repeat from soft skills above.

Centered title: Volunteer & Civic Affiliations (if you have none, use Hobbies) Bulleted list, no more than six items. ```

Same as the cover letter, replace the placeholder and instruction text with the real thing. The whole resume should fit on two pages. If it spills over, the first thing you can reduce is the number of work experience sections. You don’t need to include your entire work history, but it is best to not leave gaps if you can. We’re at the final step. The home stretch. You can do it! I believe in you! We’re going to export both documents as PDFs, then print copies, and inspect for errors or issues. “Why the PDFs and printing?” you ask? PDFs are the universal document format (see my previous post on the subject, “What is a PDF?”), and the interview panel will most likely want to print copies for themselves for the interview. Printing a copy for yourself will allow to you make sure everything looks good on paper as well as on a screen. You’re going to take your copy with, as well as a printed copy of the job posting, to use as a reference during your interview. No matter how well you think you know the material, it’s always good to have a reference. Physically referencing these documents during the interview will also help you look prepared and factual. What sounds better, “I thought the job posting said 40 hours per week?...”, or “here, in the second paragraph, the job posting says 40 hours per week”?

Want help with your job application? Or assistance with interviewing potential employees? You can find us as scalebright.ca.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

What is “the cloud”? And more importantly, who cares? The term has been in use for years and is long past the point of being a buzzword, but it might become relevant again as we enter the next phase of the cycle.

The cloud (as we’ll define it) is any computer system, in part or in full, that runs in someone else’s facility. Facebook is in the cloud. Etsy is in the cloud. Your bank’s internal systems are probably not in the cloud; they run their systems “on-prem” (short for on-premises, or in their own facilities) for regulatory and security reasons.

But if on-prem is more secure, why would we use the cloud at all? Its mostly convenience and scaling. If you want a website its much easier to set up a Squarespace or GoDaddy account and use their building tools than it is to get an enterprise internet connection, buy a server, install and set up all the software needed, and make the website from scratch. Maintenance is also much easier. Ask any QuickBooks user about the convenience of QuickBooks Online vs Desktop. Also if your needs change, cloud providers will happily automatically bill you more for the increased usage, as apposed to needing to buy more or upgrade your equipment to handle the load.

If the cloud is so much easier, why use on-prem at all? And what was that you said about cycles? Accounting and human resources. (Not HR as in the department, but the actual human resources available to you.) In accounting, the cloud is considered a service and falls under OpEx (operating expenses), while on-prem equipment such as servers fall under CapEx (capital expenses). And eeeeeveryone has a different, and often very strong, opinion on which is better. On costs, they’re pretty similar if averaged over 5, 10, or 20+ years, but with on-prem the CapEx is mostly up-front, so that can scare people over to the easy monthly payments of the cloud. On-prem also usually requires access to more technical human resources. If you’re a small organization you probably don’t have dedicated I.T. staff or maybe even the budget to hire contractors. All of this leads to cycles between the cloud and on-prem being more popular.

That all sounds like a sales pitch for cloud, but I have a sales pitch for you for on-prem. And that sales pitch is sovereignty. What happens to your records if QuickBooks closes your account? Your social media presence if Facebook does the same? How will you access your money if your bank freezes your accounts? These types of hazards can be mitigated by using on-prem instead of the cloud. It gives you far more control over your data and services. You can also build your own “private cloud” if you want to, maintaining control but making your systems available away from your office or home.

Want to get ahead of the cycle and move some of your systems on-prem? You can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

The exchange reveals the extent of the breach that occurred last December as federal authorities investigate the recent data leak.

Coinbase has disclosed that the personal data of 69,461 users was compromised during the breach in December 2024, according to documentation filed with the Maine Attorney General’s Office.

The disclosure comes after Coinbase announced last week that a group of hackers had demanded a $20 million ransom, threatening to publish the stolen data on the dark web. The attackers allegedly bribed overseas customer service agents to extract information from the company’s systems.

Coinbase had previously stated that the breach affected less than 1% of its user base, compromising KYC (Know Your Customer) data such as names, addresses, and email addresses. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company clarified that passwords, private keys, and user funds were not affected.

Following the reports, the SEC has reportedly opened an official investigation to verify whether Coinbase may have inflated user metrics ahead of its 2021 IPO. Separately, the Department of Justice is investigating the breach at Coinbase’s request, according to CEO Brian Armstrong.

Meanwhile, Coinbase has faced criticism for its delayed response to the data breach. Michael Arrington, founder of TechCrunch, stated that the stolen data could cause irreparable harm. In a post on X, Arrington wrote:

“The human cost, denominated in misery, is much larger than the $400m or so they think it will actually cost the company to reimburse people. The consequences to companies who do not adequately protect their customer information should include, without limitation, prison time for executives.”

Coinbase estimates the incident could cost between $180 million and $400 million in remediation expenses and customer reimbursements.

Arrington also condemned KYC laws as ineffective and dangerous, calling on both regulators and companies to better protect user data:

“Combining these KYC laws with corporate profit maximization and lax laws on penalties for hacks like these means these issues will continue to happen. Both governments and corporations need to step up to stop this. As I said, the cost can only be measured in human suffering.”

The post Coinbase: 69,461 users affected by December 2024 data breach appeared first on Atlas21.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

One of the most common criticisms leveled against nostr is the perceived lack of assurance when it comes to data storage. Critics argue that without a centralized authority guaranteeing that all data is preserved, important information will be lost. They also claim that running a relay will become prohibitively expensive. While there is truth to these concerns, they miss the mark. The genius of nostr lies in its flexibility, resilience, and the way it harnesses human incentives to ensure data availability in practice.

A nostr relay is simply a server that holds cryptographically verifiable signed data and makes it available to others. Relays are simple, flexible, open, and require no permission to run. Critics are right that operating a relay attempting to store all nostr data will be costly. What they miss is that most will not run all encompassing archive relays. Nostr does not rely on massive archive relays. Instead, anyone can run a relay and choose to store whatever subset of data they want. This keeps costs low and operations flexible, making relay operation accessible to all sorts of individuals and entities with varying use cases.

Critics are correct that there is no ironclad guarantee that every piece of data will always be available. Unlike bitcoin where data permanence is baked into the system at a steep cost, nostr does not promise that every random note or meme will be preserved forever. That said, in practice, any data perceived as valuable by someone will likely be stored and distributed by multiple entities. If something matters to someone, they will keep a signed copy.

Nostr is the Streisand Effect in protocol form. The Streisand effect is when an attempt to suppress information backfires, causing it to spread even further. With nostr, anyone can broadcast signed data, anyone can store it, and anyone can distribute it. Try to censor something important? Good luck. The moment it catches attention, it will be stored on relays across the globe, copied, and shared by those who find it worth keeping. Data deemed important will be replicated across servers by individuals acting in their own interest.

Nostr’s distributed nature ensures that the system does not rely on a single point of failure or a corporate overlord. Instead, it leans on the collective will of its users. The result is a network where costs stay manageable, participation is open to all, and valuable verifiable data is stored and distributed forever.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Definisanje novca
2. Šta je sredstvo razmene?
3. Šta je obračunska jedinica?
4. Šta je zaliha vrednosti?
5. Zašto su važne funkcije novca?
6. Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije
7. Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle
8. Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar
9. Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?
10. Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?
11. Efikasnija Ušteda Novca
12. Zasluge
13. Molim vas da šerujete!

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Google izveštava o stalnom povećanju interesa u svetu za pitanje „Šta je novac?“ koji se postavlja iz godine u godinu, od 2004. do 2021., a sa naglim porastom nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine.

I izgleda se da niko nema dobar odgovor za to.

Godišnji proseci mesečnih interesa za pretragu. 100 predstavlja najveći interes za pretragu tokom čitavog perioda, koji se dogodio u decembru 2019. Podaci sa Google Trends-a.

Međutim, odgovaranje na ovo naizgled jednostavno pitanje pomoći će vam da razjasnite ulogu novca u vašem životu. Jednom kada shvatite kako novac funkcioniše, tačno ćete videti i zašto svet danas ludi – i šta učiniti povodom toga. Zato hajde da se udubimo u to.

Na pitanje šta je novac, većina ljudi otvori svoje novčanike i pokaže nekoliko novčanica – “evo, ovo je novac!”

Ali po čemu se ove novčanice razlikuju od stranica vaše omiljene knjige? Pa, naravno, zavod za izradu novčanica te zemlje je odštampao te novčanice iz vašeg novčanika kako bi se oduprla falsifikovanju, i svi ih koriste da bi kupili odredjene stvari.

Međutim, Nemačka Marka imala je sva ova svojstva u prošlosti – ali preduzeća danas ne prihvataju te novčanice. Zapravo, građani Nemačke su početkom dvadesetih godina prošlog veka spaljivali papirne Marke kako bi grejali svoje domove. Marka je imala veću vrednost kao papir za potpalu nego kao novac!

1923. nemačka valuta poznata kao Marka bila je jeftinija od uglja i drveta!

Pa šta to čini novac, novcem?

Ispostavilo se da ovo nije pitanje na koje je lako dati odgovor.

Definisanje novca

Novac nije fizička stvar poput novčanice dolara. Novac je društveni sistem koji koristimo da bismo olakšali trgovinu robom i uslugama. Međutim, tokom istorije fizička monetarna dobra igrala su ključnu ulogu u društvenom sistemu novca, često kao znakovi koji predstavljaju vrednost u monetarnom sistemu. Ovaj sistem ima tri funkcije: 1) Sredstvo Razmene, 2) Obračunsku Jedinicu i 3) Zalihu Vrednosti.

Odakle dolaze ove funkcije, i zašto su one vredne?

Šta je sredstvo razmene?

Sredstvo razmene je neko dobro koje se obično razmenjuje za drugo dobro. Najčešće objašnjenje za to kako su se pojavila sredstva razmene glasi otprilike ovako: Boris ima ječam i želeo bi da kupi ovcu od Marka. Marko ima ovce, ali želi samo piliće. Ana ima piliće, ali ona ne želi ječam ili ovce.

To se naziva problem sticaja potreba: dve strane moraju da žele ono što druga ima da bi mogle da trguju. Ako se želje dve osobe ne podudaraju, oni moraju da pronađu druge ljude sa kojima će trgovati dok svi ne pronađu dobro koje žele.

Ljudi koji trguju robom i uslugama moraju da imaju potrebe koje se podudaraju.

Vremenom, veoma je verovatno da će se određena vrsta robe, poput pšenice, pojaviti kao sredstvo razmene jer su je mnogi ljudi želeli. Uzimajući pšenicu kao primer: pšenica je rešila “sticaje potreba” u mnogim zanatima, jer čak i ako onaj koji prima pšenicu a nije želeo da je koristi za sebe, znao je da će je neko drugi želeti.

Ovo nazivamo prodajnost imovine.

Pšenica je dobar primer dobra za prodaju jer svi moraju da jedu, a od pšenice se pravi hleb. Pšenica ima vrednost kao sastojak hleba i kao dobro koje olakšava trgovinu rešavanjem problema „sticaja potreba“.

Razmislite o svojoj želji da dobijete više novčanica u eurima ili drugoj valuti. Ne možete da jedete novčanice da biste preživeli, a i ne bi vam bile od velike koristi ako poželite da ih koristite kao građevinski materijal za vašu kuću. Međutim, znate da sa tim novčanicama možete da kupite hranu i kuću.

Stvarne fizičke novčanice su beskorisne za vas. Novčanice su vam dragocene samo zato što će ih drugi prihvatiti za stvari koje su vama korisne.

Tokom dugog perioda istorije, novac je evoluirao do te mere da monetarno dobro može imati vrednost, a da to dobro ne služi za bilo koju drugu ‘suštinsku’ upotrebu, poput hrane ili energije. Umesto toga, njegova upotreba je zaliha vrednosti i jednostavna zamena za drugu robu u bilo kom trenutku koji poželite.

Šta jedno dobro čini poželjnijim i prodajnijim od drugog dobra?

Deljivost

Definicija: Sposobnost podele dobra na manje količine.

Loš Primer: Dijamante je teško podeliti na manje komade. Za zajednicu od hiljada ljudi koji dnevno izvrše milione transakcija, dijamanti čine loše sredstvo razmene. Previše su retki i nedeljivi da bi se koristili za mnoge transakcije.

Ujednačenost

Definicija: Sličnost pojedinačnih jedinica odredjenog dobra.

Loš Primer: Krave nisu ujednačene – neke su veće, neke manje, neke bolesne, neke zdrave. Sa druge strane, unca čistog zlata je jednolična – jedna unca je potpuno ista kao sledeća. Ovo svojstvo se takođe često naziva zamenljivost.

Prenosivost

Definicija: Lakoća transporta dobra.

Loš Primer: Krava nije baš prenosiva. Zlatnici su prilično prenosivi. Papirne novčanice su još prenošljivije. Knjiga u kojoj se jednostavno beleži vlasništvo nad tim vrednostima (poput Rai kamenog sistema ili digitalnog bankovnog računa) je neverovatno prenosiva, jer nema fizičkog dobra koje treba nositi sa sobom za kupovinu. Postoji samo sistem za evidentiranje vlasništva nad tim vrednostima u nematerijalnom obliku.

Kako dobro postaje sredstvo razmene?

Dobra postaju, i ostaju sredstva razmene zbog svoje univerzalne potražnje, takođe poznate kao njihova prodajnost, čemu pomažu svojstva koja su gore nabrojana.

Mnogo različitih dobara mogu u različitoj meri delovati kao sredstva razmene u ekonomiji. Danas, naša globalna ekonomija koristi valute koje izdaju države, zlato, pa čak i robu poput nafte kao sredstvo razmene.

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Šta je obračunska jedinica?

Stvari se komplikuju kada u ekonomiji postoji mnogo robe koja se prodaje. Čak i sa samo 5 dobara, postoji 10 “kurseva razmene” između svake robe kojih svi u ekonomiji moraju da se sete: 1 svinja se menja za 15 pilića, 1 pile se menja za 15 litara mleka, desetak jaja se menja za 15 litara mleka, i tako dalje. Ako ekonomija ima 50 dobara, među njima postoji 1.225 “kurseva razmene”!

Sredstvo za merenje vrednosti

Zamislite obračunsku jedinicu kao sredstvo za merenje vrednosti. Umesto da se sećamo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa drugim dobrima, mi samo treba da se setimo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa jednim dobrom – obračunskom jedinicom.

Umesto da se setimo 1.225 kurseva razmene kada imamo 50 proizvoda na tržištu, mi treba da zapamtimo samo 50 cena.

Na primer, ne treba da se sećamo da litar mleka vredi 1/15 piletine ili desetak jaja, možemo da se samo setimo da litar mleka košta 1USD.

Poređenje dobara je lakše sa obračunskom jedinicom

Obračunska jedinica takođe olakšava upoređivanje vrednosti i donošenje odluka. Zamislite da pokušavate da kupite par Nike Air Jordan patika kada ih jedan prodavac prodaje za jedno pile, a drugi za 50 klipova kukuruza.

Šta je zaliha vrednosti?

Do sada smo gledali samo primere transakcija koje se odvijaju u određenom trenutku u vremenu.

Međutim, ljudi vrše transakcije tokom vremena – oni štede novac i troše ga kasnije. Da bi odredjeno dobro moglo da funkcioniše pravilno kao monetarno dobro, ono treba da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Novac koji vremenom dobro drži vrednost daje njegovom imaocu više izbora kada će taj novac da potroši.

To znači da prodajnost dobra uključuje njegovu sposobnost da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Šta jedno dobro čini boljom zalihom vrednosti od drugog dobra?

Trajnost

Definicija: Sposobnost dobra da vremenom zadrži svoj oblik.

Loš Primer: Jagode čine lošu zalihu vrednosti jer se lako oštete i brzo trunu.

Odluka je daleko lakša ako jedan prodavac naplaćuje 150 USD, a drugi 200 USD – odmah je očigledno koja je bolja ponuda jer su vrednosti izražene u istoj jedinici.

Teške za Proizvodnju

Definicija: Teškoće koje ljudi imaju u proizvodnji veće količine dobra.

Loš Primer: Papirne novčanice predstavljaju lošu zalihu vrednosti jer banke i vlade mogu jeftino da ih naprave.

Sa zlatom je suprotno – u ponudi se nalazi ograničena količina uprkos velikoj potražnji za njim, jednostavno zato što ga je vrlo teško iskopati iz zemlje. Ova ograničena ponuda osigurava da svaka jedinica zlata održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Kako dobra postaju zalihe vrednosti?

Dobro postaje zaliha vrednosti ako se vremenom pokaže trajnim i teškim za proizvodnju.

Samo će vreme pokazati da li je neko dobro zaista trajno i da li ga je teško proizvesti. Zbog toga neki oblici novca su postojali vekovima pre nego što je neko otkrio način da ih proizvede više, i na kraju se to dobro više nije koristilo kao novac.

Ovo je priča o školjkama, Rai kamenju i mnogim drugim oblicima novca tokom istorije.

Zlato je primer dobra koje je hiljadama godina služilo kao dobra zaliha vrednosti. Zlato se ne razgrađuje tokom vremena i još uvek ga je teško proizvesti. Hiljadama godina alhemičari su bezuspešno pokušavali da sintetišu zlato iz jeftinih materijala.

Čak i sa današnjim naprednim rudarskim tehnikama, svake godine svi svetski rudnici zlata zajedno mogu da proizvedu samo 2% od ukupne ponude zlata u prometu.

Teškoće u proizvodnji zlata daju izuzetno visok odnos “zaliha i protoka”: zaliha je broj postojećih jedinica, a protok su nove jedinice stvorene tokom određenog vremenskog perioda. Svake godine se stvori vrlo malo novih jedinica zlata, iako je potražnja za zlatom obično vrlo velika.

Kombinujući ovo sa deljivošću, ujednačenošću i prenosivošću zlata, nije ni čudo što je zlato čovečanstvu služilo kao monetarno dobro tokom poslednjih 5.000 godina. Pošto je zlato teško proizvesti, možemo ga nazvati teškim novcem (hard money).

Kao rezultat toga, svoju vrednost je u velikoj meri zadržao kroz milenijume. Cena većine dobara i usluga u pogledu zlata zapravo se vremenom smanjivala kao rezultat tehnoloških inovacija, koje sve proizvode čine jeftinijim.

Uzmimo na primer cene hrane prema praćenju Kancelarije za hranu i poljoprivredu UN-a: sa obzirom na skokove u poljoprivrednoj tehnologiji tokom poslednjih 60 godina, cene hrane drastično su pale kada se procenjuju u zlatu. To čak i važi uprkos činjenici da obični ljudi retko koriste zlato za kupovinu stvari.

Cene hrane su padale u pogledu zlata tokom proteklih 60 godina, i mnogo pre toga (FAO Indeks Cena Hrane u Zlatu)

Zaliha vrednosti omogućava ljudima da uštede novac kako bi mogli da ga ulažu u pokretanje preduzeća i obrazovanje, povećavajući produktivnost društva.

Monetarna dobra koja dobro čuvaju vrednost takođe podstiču dugoročniji pogled na život, ili kratke vremenske preference. Pojedinac može da radi 10 godina, uštedi odredjeno monetarno dobro koje je dobra zaliha vrednosti, i nema potrebe da se plaši da će njegova ušteđevina biti izbrisana krahom tržišta ili povećanjem ponude tog dobra.

Zašto su važne funkcije novca?

Kada neki oblik novca izgubi bilo koju od svojih važnih funkcija kao što su sredstvo razmene, obračunska jedinica i zaliha vrednosti, celokupna ekonomija i društvo mogu da se rastrgnu.

Tokom istorije često vidimo grupe ljudi koje eksploatišu druge iskorišćavajući nesporazume o novcu i važnosti njegovih funkcija.

Sledeće, proći ću kroz istoriju novca, prvo hipotetički da bih ilustrovao poentu, a zatim ću preći na stvarne istorijske primere. Kroz ove primere videćemo štetne efekte na društva u slučajevima kada se izgubi samo jedna od tih ključnih funkcija novca.

Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije

Kroz istoriju, mnoga dobra su dolazila i odlazila kao oblici novca. Na žalost, kada se neki oblik novca ukine, ponekad postoji grupa ljudi koja eksploatiše drugi oblik manipulišući tim novcem.

Hajde da pogledamo hipotetičko selo zvano Njutonija da bismo razumeli kako dolazi do ove eksploatacije.

Zelene perle postaju Novac

Tokom stotina godina ribolova u obližnjoj reci, stanovnici Njutonije sakupljali su zelene perle iz vode. Zrnca su mala, lagana, izdržljiva, jednolična i retko se pojavljuju u reci. Ljudi prvo priželjkuju perle zbog svoje lepote. Na kraju, seljani shvataju da svi drugi žele perle – one se vrlo lako mogu prodati. Zrnca uskoro postaju sredstvo razmene i obračunska jedinica u selu: pile je 5 zrna, vreća jabuka 2 zrna, krava 80 zrna.

Ukupna ponuda perli je prilično konstantna i cene se vremenom ne menjaju mnogo. Seoski starešina je uveren da može da se opustiti u poslednjim danima živeći od svoje velike zalihe perli.

Alhemičar stvara više perli

Seoski alhemičar je poželeo da bude bogat čovek, ali nije voleo da vredno radi na tome. Umesto da traži perle u reci ili da prodaje vrednu robu drugim seljanima, on sedeo je u svojoj laboratoriji. Na kraju je otkrio kako da lako stvori stotine perli sa malo peska i vatre.

Seljani koji su tragali za perlama u reci bili su srećni ako bi svaki dan pronašli po 1 zrno. Alhemičar je mogao da proizvede stotine uz malo napora.

Alhemičar troši svoje perle

Budući da je bio prilično zao, alhemičar nije svoj metod pravljenja zrna delio ni sa kim drugim. Stvorio je sebi još više perli i počeo da ih troši za dobra na tržištu u Njutoniji. Tokom sledećih meseci, alhemičar je kupio farmu pilića, nekoliko krava, finu svilu, posteljine i ogromno imanje. On je imao priliku da kupi ova dobra po normalnim cenama na tržištu.

Alhemičarevo trošenje ostavljalo je seljanima mnogo perli, ali malo njihove vredne robe.

Svi seljani su se osećali bogatima – imali su tone perli! Međutim, polako su primetili da i svi ostali takodje imaju tone.

Cene počinju da rastu

Uzgajivač pilića primetio je da sva roba koju je trebalo da kupi na pijaci poskupela. Džak jabuka sada se prodaje za 100 perli – 50 puta više od njihove cene pre nekoliko meseci!

Iako je sada imao hiljade perli, uskoro bi mogao da ostane bez njih zbog ovih cena. Pitao se – da li zaista može sebi da priušti da prodaje svoje piliće za samo 5 perli po komadu? Morao je i on da podigne svoje cene.

Jednostavno rečeno, kao rezultat alhemičarevog trošenja njegovih novostvorenih perli, bilo je previše perli koje su jurile premalo dobara – pa su cene porasle.

Kupci robe bili su spremni da potroše više perli da bi kupili potrebna dobra. Prodavci robe su trebali da naplate više da bi bili sigurni da su zaradili dovoljno da kupe potrebna dobra za sebe.

Budući da su cene svih dobara porasle, možemo reći da se vrednost svake perle smanjila.

Nejednakost bogatstva raste

Seoski starešina, koji je vredno radio da sačuva hiljade perli, sada se našao osiromašenim i gladnim. U međuvremenu, alhemičar je udobno sedeo na svom velikom imanju sa kravama, pilićima i slugama koji su se brinuli za svaki njegov hir.

Alhemičar je efikasno ukrao bogatstvo celog sela, tako što je jeftino proizvodio perle i koristio ih za kupovinu vredne robe.

Ono što je najvažnije, kupio je robu pre nego što je tržište shvatilo da je više perli u opticaju i da ima manje robe, što je dovelo do rasta cena. Ova dodatna proizvodnja perli nije dodala korisnu robu ili usluge selu.

Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle

Nažalost, priča o alhemičaru iz Njutonije nije u potpunosti hipotetička. Ovaj prenos bogatstva kroz stvaranje novca ima istorijske i moderne presedane.

Na primer, afrička plemena su nekada koristila staklene perle, poznate kao “agri perle”, kao sredstvo razmene. U to vreme plemenskim ljudima je bilo veoma teško da prave staklene perle, i one su predstavljale težak novac unutar njihovog plemenskog društva.

Niko nije mogao jeftino da proizvede perle i koristiti ih za kupovinu skupe, vredne robe poput kuća, hrane i odeće.

Sve se promenilo kada su stigli Evropljani, i primetili upotrebu staklenih perli kao novca.

U to vreme, Evropljani su mogli jeftino da stvaraju staklo u velikim količinama. Kao rezultat toga, Evropljani su počeli tajno da uvoze perle i koriste ih za kupovinu dobara, usluga i robova od Afrikanaca.

Vremenom se iz Afrike izvlačila vredna roba i ljudi, dok je plemenima ostajalo mnogo perli i malo robe.

Perle su izgubile veći deo vrednosti zbog inflacije uzrokovane snabdevanjem od strane Evropljana.

Rezultat je bio osiromašenje afričkih plemena i bogaćenje Evropljana, kako to ovde objašnjava monetarni istoričar Bezant Denier.

Dragocena roba je kupljena jeftino proizvedenim monetarnim dobrom.

Profitiranje na proizvodnji novca: Emisiona dobit

Ova priča ilustruje kako se bogatstvo prenosi kada jedna grupa može jeftino da proizvodi monetarno dobro.

Razlika između troškova proizvodnje monetarnog dobra i vrednosti tog monetarnog dobra poznata je kao emisiona dobit, eng. seignorage.

Kada je monetarno dobro mnogo vrednije od troškova proizvodnje, ljudi će proizvesti više od monetarnog dobra da bi uhvatili profit od emisione dobiti.

Na kraju će ova povećana ponuda dovesti do pada vrednosti monetarnog dobra. To je zbog zakona ponude i potražnje: kada se ponuda povećava, cena (poznata i kao vrednost) dobra opada.

Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar

U priči o Njutoniji, alhemičar je otkrio način da se od malo peska jeftino stvori više zelenih perli. To se u stvarnosti odigralo kroz trgovinu između Evropljana i Afrikanaca, pričom o agri perlama. Međutim, ove priče su pomalo zastarele – mi više ne trgujemo robom za perle.

Da bismo nas doveli do modernog doba, hajde da promenimo neka imena u našoj priči:

1. Selo Njutonija postaje država koja se zove Kejnsland
2. Alhemičar postaje bankar
3. Seoski starešina postaje penzioner
4. Zelene perle postaju zlato, koje niko ne može jeftinije da stvori – čak ni bankar.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Zlato

Kao i u stvarnosti, bankar u ovoj priči nema formulu ili trik da stvori više zlata. Međutim, bankar bezbedno čuva zlato u vlasništvu svakog građanina Kejnslanda. Bankar daje svakom građaninu po jednu potvrdu za svaku uncu zlata koje ima u svom trezoru.

Te potvrde se mogu iskoristiti u bilo koje vreme za stvarno zlato. Papirne potvrde ili novčanice su mnogo pogodnije za plaćanje nego nošenje zlata kroz supermarket.

Građani su srećni – oni imaju prikladno sredstvo plaćanja u vidu bankarevih novčanica, i znaju da niko ne može da ukrade njihovo bogatstvo falsifikujući više zlata.

Građani na kraju počinju da plaćaju u potpunosti papirnim novčanicama, ne trudeći se nikad da zamene svoje novčanice za zlato. Na kraju, novčanice postaju “dobre kao i zlato” – svaka predstavlja fiksnu količinu zlata u bankarevom trezoru.

Ukupno kruži 1.000.000 novčanica, od kojih je svaka otkupljiva za jednu uncu zlata. 1.000.000 unci zlata sedi u bankarevom trezoru. Svaka novčanica je u potpunosti podržana u zlatu.

Starešina koji je sačuvao sve svoje perle u priči o Njutoniji sada je penzioner u Kejnslandu, koji svoje zlato drži u banci i planira da ugodno živi od novčanica koje je dobio zauzvrat.

Hajde da u ovu priču dodamo i novi lik: premijera Kejnslanda. Premijer naplaćuje porez od građana i koristi ga za plaćanje javnih usluga poput policije i vojske. Premijer takođe drži vladino zlato kod bankara.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Dug

Premijer želi da osigura da nacionalno zlato ostane na sigurnom, pa banku štiti policijom. Bankar i premijer se zbog toga zbližavaju, pa premijer traži uslugu. Traži od bankara da kreira 200.000 novčanica za premijera, uz obećanje da će mu premijer vratiti za pet godina. Premijeru su novčanice potrebne za finansiranje rata. Građani Kejnslanda borili su se protiv većih poreza zbog finansiranja rata, pa je morao da se obrati bankaru.

Bankar se slaže da izradi novčanice, ali pod jednim uslovom: bankar uzima deo od 10.000 novčanica za sebe. Premijer prihvata posao kojim bankar ’kupuje državni dug’. Sada je u opticaju 1.200.000 novčanica, potpomognutih kombinacijom 1.000.000 unci zlata i ugovorom o dugu sa vladom za 200.000 novčanica.

Premijer troši svoje nove novčanice na bombe kupujući ih od dobavljača iz domaće vojne industrije, a bankar sebi kupuje veliki luksuzni stan.

Dobavljač iz vojne industrije koristi sve nove novčanice koje je dobio od premijera da kupi amonijum nitrat (đubrivo koje se koristi u bombama) za proizvodnju bombi. Sve njegove kupovine povećavaju cenu đubriva za uzgajivače pšenice u Kejnslandu, pa oni podižu cenu pšenice.

Kao uzrok toga, pekar koji kupuje pšenicu treba da podigne cenu svog hleba da bi ostao u poslu. Na taj način cene u Kejnslandu počinju da rastu, baš kao što su to činile u Njutoniji kada su nove perle ušle u opticaj.

Papirne Novčanice Više Ne Predstavljaju Zlato

Penzioner nailazi na finansijski časopis u kojem se pominje premijerov dogovor da se zaduži za finansiranje rata. Obzirom da je mudar, on zna da bombe loše vraćaju ulaganje i sumnja da će premijer ikada da vrati svoj dug.

Ako on ‘podmiri’ svoj dug, to bi ostavilo 1.200.000 novčanica u opticaju sa samo 1.000.000 unci zlata da bi ih podržalo, obezvređujući njegovu ušteđevinu. Već oseća stisak u džepu zbog porasta cena, i on odlučuje da se uputi u lokalnu banku i preda svoje novčanice i zameni ih za zlato, koje niko ne može da napravi u većoj količini.

Kada penzioner stigne u banku, on zatiče i mnoge druge okupljene oko banke. Svi oni se nadaju da će uzeti zlato koje predstavljaju njihove novčanice. Građani Kejnslanda sa pravom se plaše da njihove novčanice gube na vrednosti – oni to već osećaju zbog porasta cena.

Vrata su zaključana, sa obaveštenjem bankara na njima:

Po nalogu premijera, onom koji se plaši za stabilnost ove bankarske institucije, ova banka više neće podržavati konvertibilnost papirnih novčanica u zlato. Hvala vam!

Gomila se razilazi, ostavljena sa jednim izborom: da zadrže svoje novčanice, koje sada vrede manje od 1 unce zlata. Građani sa dovoljno finansijske stabilnosti odlučuju da ulože svoje novčanice u kupovinu akcija banke i kompanija vojne industrije, koje dobro posluju jer mogu da kupuju stvari pre nego što se povećaju tržišne cene.

Mnogi ljudi nisu u mogućnosti da investiraju – oni moraju da gledaju kako njihove zarade stagniraju i kako njihova ušteđevina polako ali sigurno gubi vrednost.

Penzioner, koji se nadao da će živeti od novčanica koje je zaradio tokom svojih 40 radnih godina, sada 40 sati nedeljno provodi iza kase u lokalnoj prodavnici, pitajući se gde je sve pošlo po zlu.

Dug Nikada Nije Otplaćen

Prošlo je nekoliko godina, a premijerov dug prema banci dolazi na naplatu. Budući da je potrošio svih 200.000 novčanica na bombe, koje nemaju baš dobar povraćaj ulaganja, on nema novčanice koje može da vrati banci. Plus, premijer želi da kupi još bombi za svoj rat.

Bankar uverava premijera da je sve u redu. Bankar će napraviti novi ugovor o dugu za 600.000 novčanica, koji bi trebao da stigne na naplatu u narednih 5 godina. Premijer može da iskoristi 200.000 od tih novih 600.000 novčanica da vrati svoj prvobitni dug prema banci, zadrži još 300.000 da kupi još bombi i da 100.000 bankaru da bi mu platio njegove usluge.

To nastavlja da se dešava – svaki put kada dug dospeva na naplatu, bankar stvara više novčanica za vraćanje starijih dugova i daje premijeru još više novca za trošenje. Ovaj ciklus se nastavlja.

Šta se dešava u Kejnslandu?

• Oni koji prvi dobiju nove novčanice, gledaju kako se njihovo bogatstvo povećava
• To uključuje bankara, premijera, vladu i sve one koji mogu da pristupe mogućnostima za investiranje u preduzeća koja prva dobiju nove novčanice (finansijske, vojne itd.).
• Cene roba rastu
• Cene se ne povećavaju ravnomerno – one se povećavaju gde god nove novčanice prvo uđu u ekonomiju i od tog trenutka imaju efekat talasa na tržišta. U našem primeru prvo raste cena amonijum nitrata, zatim cena pšenice, pa cena hleba. A tek na kraju zarade običnih ljudi.
• Štednja i životni standard opšte populacije se smanjuju
• Najviše pate oni koji žive od plate do plate i ne mogu da ulažu. Čak i oni koji su u mogućnosti da investiraju podložni su hirovima tržišta. Mnogi su prisiljeni da prodaju svoje investicije po niskim cenama tokom pada tržišta samo da bi platili svoje dnevne potrebe.
• Razlika u prihodima i bogatstvu između bogatih i siromašnih se povećava
• Bogatstvo opšte populacije se smanjuje, dok se bogatstvo onih koji su blizu mesta gde se troše nove novčanice povećava. Rezultat je disparitet koji se vremenom samo proširuje.

Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?

Priča o Njutoniji i stvarna priča o agri perlama u Africi deluju pomalo zastarelo. Priča o Kejnslandu, međutim, deluje neobično poznato. U našem svetu cene robe uvek rastu, i vidimo rekordne nivoe nejednakosti u bogatstvu.

U poslednjem odeljku ovog našeg članka Šta je novac, proći ću kroz nastanak bankarstva i korake koji su bili potrebni da se dođe do današnjeg sistema, gde banke i vlade sarađuju u kontroli ekonomije i samog novca.

Šta su banke, i odakle su one došle?

Pojava bankarstva verovatno se dogodila da bi olakšala poljoprivrednu trgovinu i da bi povećala pogodnosti. Iako su se mnoga društva na kraju konvergirala ka upotrebi zlata i srebra kao novca, ovi metali su bili teški i opasni za nošenje kao tovar. Međutim, u mnogim slučajevima ih nije ni trebalo prevoziti. Uzmite ovaj primer:

Grad treba da plati poljoprivrednicima na selu za žito, a poljoprivrednici gradskoj vojsci za zaštitu od varvara. U ovom dogovoru zlato se kreće u oba smera: prema poljoprivrednicima u selu kako bi im se platilo žito, i nazad u grad da bi se platila vojska. Da bi olakšali ove transakcije, preduzetnici su stvorili koncept banke. Banka je zlato čuvala u sigurnom trezoru i izdavala novčanice od papira. Svaka priznanica je predstavljala potvrdu da njen imaoc poseduje određenu količinu zlata u banci. Imaoc novčanice je u svako doba mogao da uzme svoje zlato nazad vraćanjem te novčanice banci.

Korisnici banke mogli su lakše da trguju sa novčanicama od papira, i onaj koji poseduje novčanice mogao je da preuzme njihovo fizičko zlato u bilo kom trenutku. To je te novčanice učinilo “dobrim kao i zlato”.

Banke su izdržavale svoje poslovanje naplaćujući od kupaca naknadu za skladištenje zlata ili pozajmljivanjem dela zlata i zaračunavanjem kamata na njega. Trgovina na ovaj način je mogla da se odvija sa laganim novčanicama od papira umesto sa teškim vrećama zlatnika.

Ovakva praksa sa transakcijama, korišćenjem papirne valute potpomognute monetarnim dobrima, verovatno je započela u Kini u 7. veku.

Na kraju se proširila Evropom 1600-ih, a svoj zalet dobila je u Holandiji sa bankama poput Amsterdamske Wisselbanke. Novčanice Wisselbank-e često su vredele više od zlata koje ih je podržavalo, zbog dodane vrednosti njihovih pogodnosti.

Uspon nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’

Tokom vekova, zlato je počelo da se sakuplja u trezorima banaka, jer su ljudi više voleli pogodnosti transakcija sa novčanicama.

Na kraju, nacionalne banke u vlasništvu vlada preuzele su ulogu čuvanja zlata od privatnih banaka koje su započeli preduzetnici.

Nacionalne papirne valute potpomognute zlatnim rezervama u nacionalnim bankama zamenile su novčanice iz privatnih banaka. Sve nacionalne valute bile su jednostavno potvrde za zlato koje se nalazilo u trezoru nacionalne banke.

Ovaj sistem je poznat kao zlatni standard – sve valute su jednostavno predstavljale različite težine zlata.

U gornjem levom uglu novčanice možete videti da piše da je novčanica “zamenljiva za zlato”. Savremeni dolari nemaju ovaj natpis, ali inače izgledaju vrlo slično. Izvor

Zlatni sistem je postojao veći deo vremena, sve do Prvog svetskog rata. Vladama je bilo teško da prikupe novac za ovaj rat putem poreza, pa su morale da budu kreativne.

Kada vlade troše više nego što zarađuju na porezima, to se naziva deficitna potrošnja.

Kako vlade mogu ovo da urade? Vlade to rade tako što pozajmljuju novac prodavajući svoj dug.

Tokom Prvog svetskog rata, vlade su građanima i preduzećima prodavale vrstu duga koja se naziva ratna obveznica. Kada građanin kupi ratnu obveznicu, on preda svoj novac vladi i dobije papir u kojem je stajalo vladino obećanje da će vlasniku obveznice vratiti novac, plus kamate, za nekoliko godina.

Plakat koji obaveštava građane, tražeći od njih da kupe ratne obveznice – što predstavlja zajam vladi. Izvor

Centralne banke ‘monetizuju’ državni dug

Međutim, građani i preduzeća nisu bili voljni da kupe dovoljno ratnih obveznica za finansiranje Prvog svetskog rata.

Vlade se nisu predale – pa su zatražile od svojih nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’ da one kupe ove obveznice. Centralne banke su otkupile obveznice, ali ih nisu platile valutom potpomognutom postojećim zlatnim rezervama, kao što su to činili građani i banke prilikom kupovine obveznica.

Centralne banke su umesto toga davale vladi novu, sveže štampanu papirnu valutu potpomognutu samo obveznicom. Ovu valutu podržalo je samo obećanje da će im vlada vratiti dugove. Ovo je poznato kao monetizacija duga.

Budući da su ratne obveznice i valuta samo komadi papira, one su lake i jeftine za proizvodnju i mogu se napraviti u ogromnim količinama. Ono što ograničava proizvodnju i jednog i drugog je poverenje.

Ima smisla da se neko rastane od svog teško stečenog novca da kupi državnu obveznicu, samo ako veruje da će vlada da vrati svoj dug, plus kamate. Centralna banka je “krajnji kupac”, što znači da će ona da kupi državne obveznice kada to niko drugi neće da uradi.

Zapamtite, centralnu banku gotovo da ništa ne košta da kupi državne obveznice, jer oni sami štampaju valutu da bi ih kupili.

Zamislite da pridjete najskupljem automobilu u autosalonu – koji košta 100.000 USD. Mislite da je automobil lep, ali taj novac biste radije potrošili na lepši stan – tako da ste spremni da platite samo 40.000 USD za taj auto.

Sada, hajde da zamislimo da imate štampač za novac i da vas košta samo 50 USD za mastilo i papir da bi ištampali 1.000.000 USD. Vi biste odmah kupili auto, čak i ako biste morali da se cenkate sa drugim čovekom, i da ga na kraju platite 150.000 USD!

Ista stvar se dešava kada centralna banka kupuje obveznice (dugove) od vlade. Centralna banka može da stvori valutu toliko jeftino, da su spremni da plate i više nego što bi drugi platili ove obveznice i nastaviće da ih kupuju čak i kada niko drugi ne bude želeo.

Monetizacija duga uzrokuje inflaciju

Kada centralne banke monetizuju državni dug, funkcija novca kao zalihe vrednosti počinje da se nagriza. Vlada troši novi novac koji je dobila od svoje centralne banke na ratnu robu, obroke i još mnogo toga.

Cene roba rastu od ove novoštampane valute koja kruži kroz ekonomiju. Kada se cene povećavaju, to znači da se vrednost svake jedinice valute smanjuje. Svi koji drže valutu sada imaju manje vrednosti. Danas to nazivamo sporim gubitkom funkcije zalihe vrednosti u novčanoj inflaciji.

Za Nemačku nakon Prvog svetskog rata monetizacija duga izazvala je totalni slom Nemačke ekonomije i stvorila uslove za rast fašizma.

Kao deo sporazuma o prekidu vatre koji je okončao Prvi svetski rat, Nemačka je pobednicima morala da plati ogroman novac. Nemačkoj vladi je bio preko potreban novac, pa su prodale obveznice (dug) Rajhsbanci, nemačkoj centralnoj banci.

Ovaj postupak doveo je do toga da je vlada štampala toliko maraka (tadašnja nemačka valuta) da je tempo inflacije u Nemačkoj ubrzan u hiperinflaciju početkom 1920-ih. Cena vekne hleba za samo 4 godine popela se sa 1,2 marke na 428 biliona maraka.

Tokom i posle Prvog svetskog rata, SAD, Britanija, Francuska i mnoge druge vlade pratile su Nemačku u štampanju valute potpomognute državnim dugom.

To je dovelo do toga da su građani želeli da svoju papirnu valutu zamene za zlato, baš kao i penzioner iz priče o Kejnslandu.

Međutim, mnoge vlade su suspendovale konvertibilnost svojih valuta u zlato. Ovim potezom vlade su primorale svoje građane da drže nacionalnu papirnu valutu i gledaju kako se njihova ušteda smanjuje u vrednosti.

Da bi mogle da nastave da štampaju novac i da bi ga trošile na nepopularne programe za koje nisu mogle da skupljaju poreze za finansiranje – poput ratova.

Bretton Woods: Novi monetarni sistem

Nakon razaranja koja su donela dva svetska rata, vlade su uspostavile novi globalni monetarni sistem prema Bretton Woods-ovom sporazumu iz 1944. godine.

Prema ovom sporazumu, valuta svake države konvertovala se po fiksnom kursu sa američkim dolarom. Američki dolar je zauzvrat predstavljao zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu trojsku uncu zlata*.

Sve globalne valute su stoga još uvek bile jednostavna reprezentacija zlata, putem američkih dolara kao posrednika. Redovni građani više nisu mogli da otkupljuju svoje valute za zlato iz Sjedinjenih Država. Međutim, strane centralne banke mogle bi da dođu u Sjedinjene Države da bi zamenile dolare za zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu uncu zlata.

Međutim, vlada Sjedinjenih Država nije uvek držala dovoljno zlata da podrži sve dolare u opticaju. Američka vlada nastavila je da finansira proširene socijalne i vojne programe prodajom državnog duga svojoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim rezervama, koja je povećala ponudu dolara bez povećanja ponude zlata koja podupire te dolare.

*Trojna unca je standardna mera čistog zlata i ima malo veću težinu od normalne unce.

Propast Bretton Woods-a

Tokom 1970-ih, sve veći troškovi rata u Vijetnamu i stranih vlada koje su otkupljivale svoje dolare za zlato, stvorili su pritisak na Trezor Sjedinjenih Država.

Ponuda dolara je porasla, dok je zlato u posedu Sjedinjenih Država opalo. Od 1950. pa do početka 1970-ih, rezerve zlata koje je držala vlada Sjedinjenih Država smanjile su se za više od 50%, sa 20 metričkih tona na samo 8 metričkih tona.

Godine 1970. država je imala zlata u vrednosti od samo 12 biliona dolara po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata. Tokom ovog istog vremenskog perioda, ukupna ponuda američkih dolara otišla je sa oko 32 biliona USD na skoro 70 biliona USD.

Zvanične rezerve zlata u SAD-u su naglo padale od 1950. do 1970. godine, dok su se dolari u opticaju povećavali. Izvor: Wikipedia, DollarDaze.org

Američka vlada nije bila u stanju da potkrepi dolare zlatom od 35 dolara po trojnoj unci, što dovelo do rizika za čitav globalni monetarni sistem.

Početkom sedamdesetih godina, trojna unca zlata trebala je da vredi 200 USD da bi u potpunosti podržala sve američke dolare u opticaju. Rečeno na drugi način, Sjedinjene Države su pokušavale da kažu svetu da jedan dolar vredi 1/35 trojne unce zlata, ali u stvarnosti dolar je vredeo samo 1/200 trojne unce.

Kad su strane vlade trebale da pribave dolare za međunarodnu trgovinu i rezerve, bile su opelješene. Francuska vlada je to shvatila šezdesetih godina prošlog veka i počela je da prodaje svoje američke dolare za zlato po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata.

Zemlje su počinjale da se bude iz šeme američke vlade. SAD su krale bogatstvo putem emisione dobiti, prodajući dolare za 1/35 trojne unce zlata, kada su vredeli samo 1/200 trojske unce.

Nixonov Šok ulazi u ’tradicionalni’ novac

Da bi kuća od karata mogla da ostane na mestu, predsednik Nixon je 1971. najavio da će američka vlada privremeno da obustavi konvertibilnost dolara u zlato.

Strane vlade više nisu mogle da polažu pravo na zlato svojim papirnim dolarima, a dolar više nije bio “poduprt” zlatom. Nixon je tvrdio da će ovo stabilizovati dolar.

50 godina kasnije, kristalno je jasno da je ovo samo pomoglo dolaru da izgubi vrednost i da ovaj “privremeni” program još uvek traje.

Pre 1971. godine, sve globalne valute bile su vezane za američki dolar putem Bretton Woods-ovog sporazuma. Kada je Nixon promenio američki dolar iz dolara podržanog u zlatu u dolar podržan dugom, ovim je promenio i svaku drugu valutu na Zemlji.

Sam je učinio da se celokupna svetska ekonomija zasniva na dugovima. Valute više nisu predstavljale zlato, već su predstavljale vrednost državnog duga.

Zlatni Standard se nikada nije vratio

Konvertibilnost američkih dolara u zlato – zlatni standard – nikada se nije vratio.

Od 1971. godine, čitav globalni monetarni sistem pokreće se tradicionalnim “fiat” valutama: poverenjem u vladine institucije da održavaju valutni sistem.

Većina valuta podržana je kombinacijom duga njihove vlade i drugih tradicionalnih valuta poput dolara i evra. Papirne valute više nisu podržane zlatom, imovinom koja je više od 5000 godina služila kao težak novac.

Danas vas vlade prisiljavaju da plaćate porez u njihovoj valuti i manipulišu saznanjima oko novca kako bi osigurale da potražnja za njihovom valutom ostane velika.

To im omogućava da neprestano štampaju više valuta, da bi je potrošili na vladine projekte, uzrokujući inflaciju cena koja jede i smanjuje bogatstvo i plate.

Američka vlada sada prodaje državne obveznice (dugove), poznate kao obveznice Trezora SAD, eng. US Treasuries, komercijalnim bankama u zamenu za američke dolare.

Vlada koristi te dolare za finansiranje svog budžetskog deficita. Komercijalne banke prodaju mnoge obveznice Trezora SAD, koje su kupile, američkoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim Rezervama.

Federalne rezerve plaćaju komercijalnim bankama sveže štampanim novcem “pomoću računara i upisivanjem količine na račun”, kako je rekao bivši predsednik Fed-a Ben Bernanke.

Ove komercijalne banke često zarađuju samo kupujući obveznice Trezora SAD od države i prodajući ih centralnoj banci. Kupujte nisko, prodajte visoko.

Centralne banke ovaj proces kupovine državnog duga – odnosno pozajmljivanja novca državi – nazivaju operacijama otvorenog tržišta.

Kada centralna banka odjednom kupi velike iznose duga, oni to nazivaju kvantitativnim ublažavanjem. Centralne banke javno najavljuju kupovinu državnog duga, ali vrlo malo ljudi razume šta to zapravo znači.

Euro, jen i svaka druga valuta koja se danas koristi funkcionišu slično kao američki dolar.

Da li će SAD ikada vratiti svoj nacionalni dug? Neobična stvar u vezi sa državnim dugom SAD-a je ta što vlada poseduje štampariju potrebnu za njegovu otplatu.

Kao rezultat toga, kada vlada duguje novac, oni samo pozajme još više novca da bi otplatile taj dug, povećavajući nacionalni dug.

Ako vam ovo zvuči kao Ponzijeva piramidalna šema, to je zato što ona to i jeste – najveća Ponzijeva šema u istoriji. Kao i svaka Ponzijeva šema, nastaviće se sve dok su ljudi koji kupuju Ponzijevu šemu budu uvereni da će im biti plaćeno nazad.

Ako ljudi i nacije prestanu da se zadužuju i koriste američke dolare jer nemaju poverenja u američku vladu ili vide da cena robe raste (tj. dolar postaje sve manje vredan), potražnja za dolarom će opadati, što će izazvati začaranu spiralu.

Ova spirala često završi u hiperinflaciji, kao što smo videli u novijoj istoriji sa Jugoslavijom, Venecuelom, Argentinom, Zimbabveom i mnogim drugim državama.

Ovo je način kako funkcioniše novac na vašem bankovnom računu. Novac svake nacije na svetu pati od istih problema kao i perle i novčanice u pričama o Njutoniji i Kejnslandu.

Kako banke i vlade kradu tvoj novac?

Tokom vekova, stigli smo do monetarnog sistema u kojem banke i vlade mogu da štampaju novu valutu za finansiranje svojih operacija i svojih prijatelja u zločinu, dok kradu bogatstvo svojih građana.

Šta će se desiti sa svetom kada novac bude mogao da štampa svaki narod na planeti?

• Bogatstvo onih koji su blizu pravljenja nove valute se povećava
• Vlada i politički povlašćena klasa ljudi, imaju pristup novoštampanom novcu pre svih ostalih, pa mogu da ga potroše pre nego što cene porastu. Na ovaj efekat pokazao je ekonomista Richard Cantillon sredinom 1700-ih i poznat je kao Cantillonov Efekat.
• Cena robe raste (poznato kao inflacija
• Ne raste sve roba istovremeno u ceni. Roba blizu mesta gde se proizvodi nova valuta – finansijski sektor i vlada – prva raste, i odatle uzrokuje efekt talasa na cene.
• Inflacija se često predstavlja kao promena cene potrošačke korpe, poznata kao Indeks Potrošačkih Cena, eng. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Vlada ima alate za manipulisanje ovim brojem kako bi osigurala da se ona čini niskom i stabilnom, kao što je objašnjeno u našem članku o inflaciji.
• Finansijska imovina često primećuje ogromnu inflaciju, ali bankari to ne nazivaju inflacijom – oni kažu da naša ekonomija cveta! Nakon što su američke Federalne rezerve učetvorostručile ponudu američkih dolara u šest godina nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine, banke koje su dobile te nove dolare, kupile su akcije i obveznice, stvarajući ogroman balon u cenama ove imovine.
• Štednja i životni standard stanovništva se smanjuju
• Plate su jedna od poslednjih “cena” u ekonomiji koja se prilagođava, jer se često povećavaju samo jednom godišnje. U međuvremenu, cene dnevnih potrepština te osobe koja zaradjuje platu neprestano rastu kako novi novac kruži ekonomijom.
• Najviše su pogođeni oni koji žive od plate do plate – a to je 70% Amerikanaca.
• Razlike u prihodima između bogatih i siromašnih se povećavaju, kao što se vidi na grafikonu ispod.

*Koncentracija dohotka na vrhu naglo je porasla od 1970-ih

Zašto i dalje imamo isti monetarni sistem?

Ako ovaj sistem bogate još više obogaćuje, a siromašne još više osiromašuje, dovodeći do političke nestabilnosti, zašto ga onda ne bismo promenili?

Najveći razlog zašto se ništa ne menja je verovatno to što puno toga ne znamo o samom sistemu. Svi svakodnevno koristimo valute svojih vlada, ali većina nas ne razume kako sistem funkcioniše i šta on čini našim društvima.

Obrazovni sistem, mediji i finansijski stručnjaci neprestano nam govore da je monetarni sistem previše komplikovan da bi ga normalni ljudi razumeli. Mnogi od nas se zato i ne trude da pokušaju.

Još nekoliko razloga zašto ovaj sistem nastavlja da opstaje:

• Mnogo je ljudi koji imaju direktnu korist od štampanja novog novca.
• Ti ljudi ne žele nikakve promene i bore se da zadrže tu moć.
• Nacionalne valute su često pogodne
• Kreditne kartice, online bankarstvo i još mnogo toga čine upravljanje nacionalnim valutama i njihovo trošenje lakim i jednostavnim.
• Građani moraju da plaćaju porez u svojoj nacionalnoj valuti
• To stvara potražnju za tom valutom od svih građana, povećavajući njenu vrednost.
• Glavna međunarodna tržišta, poput nafte, denominirana su u dolarima.
• Nafta je potrebna svakoj zemlji na planeti, ali pošto mnogi ne mogu da je proizvode, moraju da je kupuju na međunarodnim berzama. Od 1970-ih na ovim berzama gotovo sva nafta se prodaje za dolare, što stvara potražnju za dolarima. Da bi se odmaknule od ovog sistema, zemlje bi trebale da pronađu novu valutu ili robu za trgovinu naftom, što zahteva vreme i rizike.
• Nije postojala dobra alternativa
• Uz globalnu ekonomiju u realnom vremenu, naš sistem digitalnog bankarstva koji koristi nacionalne valute je pogodan. Transakcija u tvrdom novcu poput zlata bila bi previše nezgrapna za današnji svet. Digitalna valuta pod nazivom Bitcoin, predstavljena 2009. godine, je rastuća alternativa koja nudi čvrst novac koji se kreće brzinom interneta.

Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?

Novac je alat koji olakšava razmenu dobara. Kao i svako drugo dobro, novac se pridržava zakona ponude i potražnje – povećanje potražnje povećaće njegovu vrednost, a povećanje ponude smanjiće njegovu vrednost.

Na ovaj način novac se ne razlikuje od kuće ili piletine. Međutim, velika prodajnost novca znači da je potražnja za njim uvek velika. Kao rezultat, novac mora biti težak za proizvodnju (a samim tim i ograničen u ponudi) ili će ga onaj ko ga može napraviti, stvoriti toliko, da vremenom više neće služiti kao zaliha vrednosti. Uskoro će izgubiti svoje funkcije kao sredstvo razmene i obračunske jedinice.

Najbolji novac u datoj ekonomiji je onaj koji se najslobodnije kreće – svi ga žele, lako je obaviti transakcije sa njim i koji sa vremenom dobro drži svoju vrednost. Nijedan novac nije savršen u svemu ovome, a neki ističu jednu funkciju novca na štetu drugih.

Iako se istorija ne ponavlja, ona se rimuje, a usponi i padovi monetarnih sistema imaju jasne ritmove. Uspon i pad monetarnog sistema često sledi opšti obrazac koji smo videli u pričama o agri perlama i Kejnslandu: pojavljuje se odredjenji oblik novca koji pomaže ljudima da efikasnije trguju i štede, ali na kraju gubi na vrednosti kada neko shvati kako da ga jeftino stvori u velikoj količini. Međutim, tokom dugog perioda vremena, monetarni sistemi su se poboljšali u sve tri funkcije novca.

Na primer, zlato je tokom vremena dobro služilo kao zaliha vrednosti. Međutim, naša međusobno povezana ekonomija ne bi mogla efikasno da funkcioniše ako bi trebalo da fizičko zlato zamenimo robom i uslugama. Mnogo je lakše kretati se na papirnom i digitalnom novcu, ali istorija nam govori da su vlade i bankari iskoristili ove oblike novca za krađu bogatstva putem inflacije.

Današnji globalni monetarni sistem je vrlo zgodan, a digitalna plaćanja i kreditne kartice olakšavaju trošenje novca. Ovo skriva stalnu inflaciju koja nagriza vrednost svake jedinice novca i dovodi do sve većeg jaza u bogatstvu.

Nadam se da je ovaj članak proširio vaše razumevanje novca i njegove uloge u društvu. Ovo je samo početak svega što treba istražiti o novcu: za kasnije su sačuvane teme o inflaciji, kamatnim stopama, pozajmljivanju, poslovnim ciklusima i još mnogo toga.

Efikasnija Ušteda Novca

Možda se pitate kako zaštititi svoju štednju kada svaki oblik često korišćenog novca i investicija pati od inflacije ponude – koja umanjuje vrednost i prenosi bogatstvo onima koji mogu da stvore novac ili investiciju. Možda se čini da se ništa na planeti danas ne može kvalifikovati kao ‘težak’ novac, ali dve stvari ipak ostaju: zlato i njegov noviji rođak Bitcoin. Obe ove stvari je neverovatno teško proizvesti, a jedna od njih se kreće brzinom interneta i može se čuvati u vašem mozgu.

Ako želite da saznate više o Bitcoin-u kao sredstvu za zaštitu vaše ušteđevine, pročitajte ovde. Ako ste već spremni za kupovinu Bitcoin-a, pogledajte moj vodič za kupovinu Bitcoin-a. Možete početi sa investiranjem sa samo 5 ili 10 €.

Zasluge

Hvala svima koji su pomogli u izradi i uređivanju ove serije o novcu: @ck_SNARKS, @CryptoRothbard, Neil Woodfine, Emil Sandstedt, Taylor Pearson, Parker Lewis, Jason Choi, mojoj porodici i mnogim drugima.

Hvala svima koji su ovo inspirisali i razvili ključne ideje koje su ovde primenjene: Friedrich Hayek, Carl Menger, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Saifedean Ammous, Dan Held, Pierre Rochard, Stephan Livera, Michael Goldstein, i mnogi drugi.

Molim vas da šerujete! Ako vam je ovaj članak otvorio oči o tome kako funkcioniše naš novac i finansijski sistem, kontaktirajte me ili ostavite komentar!

Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim pogled u ekonomiju i na to kako ona utiče na njihov život.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Capitalism is the most effective system for scaling innovation. The pursuit of profit is an incredibly powerful human incentive. Most major improvements to human society and quality of life have resulted from this base incentive. Market competition often results in the best outcomes for all.

That said, some projects can never be monetized. They are open in nature and a business model would centralize control. Open protocols like bitcoin and nostr are not owned by anyone and if they were it would destroy the key value propositions they provide. No single entity can or should control their use. Anyone can build on them without permission.

As a result, open protocols must depend on donation based grant funding from the people and organizations that rely on them. This model works but it is slow and uncertain, a grind where sustainability is never fully reached but rather constantly sought. As someone who has been incredibly active in the open source grant funding space, I do not think people truly appreciate how difficult it is to raise charitable money and deploy it efficiently.

Projects that can be monetized should be. Profitability is a super power. When a business can generate revenue, it taps into a self sustaining cycle. Profit fuels growth and development while providing projects independence and agency. This flywheel effect is why companies like Google, Amazon, and Apple have scaled to global dominance. The profit incentive aligns human effort with efficiency. Businesses must innovate, cut waste, and deliver value to survive.

Contrast this with non monetized projects. Without profit, they lean on external support, which can dry up or shift with donor priorities. A profit driven model, on the other hand, is inherently leaner and more adaptable. It is not charity but survival. When survival is tied to delivering what people want, scale follows naturally.

The real magic happens when profitable, sustainable businesses are built on top of open protocols and software. Consider the many startups building on open source software stacks, such as Start9, Mempool, and Primal, offering premium services on top of the open source software they build out and maintain. Think of companies like Block or Strike, which leverage bitcoin’s open protocol to offer their services on top. These businesses amplify the open software and protocols they build on, driving adoption and improvement at a pace donations alone could never match.

When you combine open software and protocols with profit driven business the result are lean, sustainable companies that grow faster and serve more people than either could alone. Bitcoin’s network, for instance, benefits from businesses that profit off its existence, while nostr will expand as developers monetize apps built on the protocol.

Capitalism scales best because competition results in efficiency. Donation funded protocols and software lay the groundwork, while market driven businesses build on top. The profit incentive acts as a filter, ensuring resources flow to what works, while open systems keep the playing field accessible, empowering users and builders. Together, they create a flywheel of innovation, growth, and global benefit.

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Last week our household acquired a dog. I’ve had and trained dogs before; four in total over the course of about 20 years. But it’s been about 6 years without one, and this one is an inside dog, which is completely new to me. Old habits die hard though and I’m finding nuggets of skills and knowledge slowly returning.

I was lucky enough to get some formal training in dog training in my early teens, and I remember noticing some of the base training methods we used with dogs matched the human learning methods our family talked about. When I later joined the workforce this idea was reinforced during onboardings and later when I was asked to train others on technology platforms. People and dogs learn best with repetition, reward (also known as positive reinforcement), and a combination of learning styles.

You’ve probably heard of the classic learning styles framed one way or another depending on the book, workshop, or TED Talk you experienced that one time. The three core styles of auditory, visual, and kinesthetic overlap in training people and dogs. (I feel the need to pause and reiterate that while I am comparing people to dogs, I’m not conflating the two. You are not a dog. I might be, because on the internet nobody knows you’re a dog, but I’m not calling you one.) For people, auditory may be a professor lecturing or a friend explaining a new board game. For dogs, verbal commands such as “Fido, sit!” fill that role. Visual for people could be a diagram or demonstration, while for dogs a hand signal does the same. Kinesthetic is a bit different; for people we sometimes call it “hands on” or the 4H motto of “learn to do by doing”, while for dogs it might be physically placing them a sitting position while giving the sit command.

Combining the styles is the best way to achieve maximum effect. With people we usually do this for efficiency’s sake (especially in groups); auditory and visual at the same time, followed by some hands-on activity or practice. For dogs, especially for new commands, we’ll say “Fido, sit!” while showing the hand signal, followed by placing or gently pushing if needed.

Repetition is a necessity; I’ve never seen a dog learn a new command after a single exercise, so don’t beat yourself up if you don’t learn that new thing after one try! (I will admit to projecting hard on that one; raise your hand if you’re a former gifted child!)

Lastly, use positive reinforcement. It sticks (pun fully intended) a thousand times better than negative reinforcement with dogs and people. Treats following successes work wonders with dogs. Ours likes these tiny cubes of dehydrated beef liver. A direct analogue may not exist for people though. I can’t see myself having a single raisin every time I write a few words in a post. How do you “treat” yourself for learning?

Want help with training the technology dog in you or your staff? You can find us a scalebright.ca.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

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@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Two weeks ago I posted “Delete the Technology” talking about the idea of removing entire technological elements from your life, such as smartphones or social medias, as a way to simplify. Little did I know one of those elements in my life would soon be deleting me…

Story time! While at my desk last week I saw I had an email from Instagram about the ScaleBright account. It had been suspended due to being connected to my personal Facebook account, which was an admin on a Facebook Page for an old business (closed 5+ years ago), which was currently suspended for “violating community guidelines”. I could of course appeal this decision, which I did, and during the process it was explained that the offending Facebook Page was suspended by one of their automated systems. Also, because the ScaleBright Instagram account was connected to my personal Facebook account, it too had been suspended, as well as my associated personal Instagram account. To reiterate, the causal chain of events was:

1. automated suspension of an old, disused Facebook Page, which caused
2. automated suspension of the ScaleBright Instagram account, which caused
3. automated suspension of my personal Facebook account, which caused
4. automated suspension of my personal Instagram account

After appealing the suspension of the ScaleBright Instagram account another automated system released it, saying the suspension was in error. In theory this should have automatically released my personal Facebook and Instagram accounts. As luck would have it, this did not happen. Those accounts are still suspended.

The instructions from Facebook to appeal where to “log into your (scalebrightsolutions) Instagram account to appeal our decision”. This of course does nothing as that account is no longer suspended. After much searching I was able to find an email address that is supposedly for manually appealing suspensions (appeals@fb.com), but Facebook’s own documentation makes no mention of that address or any other. I’ve sent an email anyway.

Given my earlier suggestion of deleting technology, it may behoove me to take my own medicine and let those accounts go. Do I even need them for anything? I did make extensive use of Facebook Messenger and Marketplace, as well as Groups and Pages. Lots of teams and businesses use these tools exclusively for communication too (such as my local farmer’s market), with little chance of them changing platforms because little ol’ me “doesn’t use Facebook anymore”. But what are my options?

I have two options before me, both of which have downsides. If I can’t successfully appeal, I could let the accounts go and live without those platforms. Or I could create new accounts, but that goes directly against Meta’s terms of service, and I’d risk getting automatically suspended all over again. As of today I’m leaning toward shouting a hearty William Wallace “freedooooom!” and abandoning Meta’s platforms permanently. After all, there are other options for chat and social media that are built to be the antithesis of this sort of centralized authoritarianism, some of which I’m already using.

Nostr is a social media protocol I’ve been using for about a year now. This is different than a platform, such as Facebook, as there is no central ownership or authority for Nostr. Nostr uses a combination of servers (called relays) and apps (called clients), of which anyone can create and use. There are no “official” servers or apps, and while a server operator could ban my account from their server, they can’t ban me from the protocol or anyone else’s servers. If I wanted to I could even create my own private server just for me and my friends. One of the downsides to Nostr is that’s there’s no integrated chat or messaging functions.

For chat I’ve been testing Matrix. It’s similar to Nostr in that it’s a protocol and not a platform, and uses a combination of servers and apps. You can connect to the wider Matrix network, or just your own private server.

The biggest problem with both Nostr and Matrix is that to be useful, people need to use them. This loops us back to Facebook; the people I want to communicate with are there, and have no effective reasons to leave and use Nostr and Matrix instead. I guess I’ll need to brush up on my Braveheart speeches. *Ahem* They may suspend our accounts, but they’ll never suspend our freedom!

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

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Curabitur suscipit vulputate volutpat Donec ornare, risus non tincidunt malesuada, elit magna feugiat diam, id faucibus libero libero efficitur mauris

@ 58537364:705b4b85

“พระอาจารย์คะ หนูไม่ได้อะไรนะคะ ก็ในเมื่อพระพุทธศาสนามีแก่นคำสอนอยู่แล้ว ถ้าหนูคิดว่าควรจะลดพวกวัด หรืออะไรต่างๆ ลง นี่เป็นบาปมั้ยคะ?”

“เจริญพร ตอนหนูกินกล้วยนี่กินเปลือกหรือกินผลกล้วย ?” ”กินผลกล้วยค่ะ” “เหรอ…แล้วก่อนจะกินกล้วยหนูต้องปอกก่อนมั้ย ?” เด็กสาวหน้าตาสะอาดสะอ้าน พยักหน้าหงึก~

“ปอกทำไมล่ะ?” “ก็เปลือกมันกินไม่ได้หนิคะ” “อ๋อ…อย่างนั้นเปลือกก็ไม่มีประโยชน์เลยใช่มั้ย?” เธอส่ายหน้า

ผู้เขียนบรรยายต่อ “เพราะจริงๆ แล้วเปลือกก็มีประโยชน์ มันมีไว้เพื่อรักษาผลกล้วยเอาไว้…เปลือกทุเรียน เปลือกขนุนก็เช่นกัน ลองคิดดูสิ ถ้าเปลือกอันไหนปอกยากๆ มันก็มักจะรักษาเนื้อในไว้ได้ดี และเนื้อในก็อร่อยด้วย…”

“…เราจะกินเนื้อข้างใน ต้องก็ไม่สับสนไปกินเปลือก หรือกินแต่เปลือกแล้วทิ้งเนื้อ นี่ก็ไม่ใช่ หน้าที่เราคือการรู้ว่าอะไรคือเปลือก อะไรคือเนื้อ แล้วต้องรู้จักวิธีปอกด้วย”

“พระอาจารย์ยอมรับตามตรงเลยนะว่า ส่วนตัวไม่ได้ชอบการก่อสร้าง การประดับตกแต่ง หรือพิธีกรรมพวกนี้อะไรเท่าไหร่ แต่ก็เข้าใจได้ บางคนชอบทำ เพราะเขาว่ามันมีประโยชน์ ก็ถูกของเขา เราแค่อย่าไปชวนทะเลาะ…”

“…มันเป็นเรื่องที่เราต้องปอกให้เป็น ไม่หลงไปกินเปลือกเสียเอง แต่ก็ต้องค่อยๆ หาจังหวะพาให้เขาเข้าใจและระวังไม่ทิ้งเนื้อในออกไปด้วย…”

…ยกตัวอย่างเช่น ‘การกราบ’ พระอาจารย์ไม่ได้ซีเรียสนะว่าพวกเราจะกราบพระอาจารย์หรือเปล่า ไม่บังคับ”

“…พระอาจารย์อ่านพระสูตรแล้วมาวิเคราะห์ พบว่าในสมัยพุทธกาล ตอนพระพุทธเจ้าแสดงธรรม มีคนเข้ามาฟังเยอะมาก บางคนเข้ามาแล้วกราบ บางคนแค่พนมมือ บางคนไม่กราบ นั่งพรวดเลย บางคนก็เดินผ่านไป ไม่เข้ามาฟังเลยก็มี”

“…ส่วนตอนกลับออกไป ก็มีหลากหลายแบบเช่นกัน เลยจินตนาการว่า บางคนที่ศรัทธามาแล้วยังศรัทธาอยู่ก็มี ฟังแล้วเปลี่ยนไปไม่ศรัทธาก็มี บางคนไม่ศรัทธาก่อนฟังแต่เปลี่ยนตอนหลังก็มี ไม่เปลี่ยนใจก็มี มันแตกต่างหลากหลายมาก นี่ขนาดสมัยพระพุทธเจ้านะ”

“…แต่เราต้องถามว่า “การกราบ” ให้อะไรเรา พระอาจารย์เพิ่งจะได้มากราบก็ตอนบวชเนี่ยแหละ กราบมาตลอด ๑๔ ปี แรกๆ ก็ทำตามๆ ไป”

“…แต่หลังๆ เริ่มเข้าใจ เริ่มเห็นว่าการกราบนี่เป็นการฝึกตนเองให้ลดมานะละทิฏฐิ รู้จักกาลเทศะ อ่อนน้อมถ่อมตน”

“…แล้วตอนที่มีใครมากราบพระอาจารย์ พระอาจารย์อยากจะสอน อยากจะคุยกับเขามากกว่าคนที่ไม่กราบ มันดูเก้ๆ กังๆ ไม่รู้ว่าเขาเป็นยังไง ทำทีนิ่งๆ ไว้ก่อนดีกว่า”

“…แล้วหนูคิดว่าบางคนกราบๆ ไปแบบไม่รู้ความหมาย มีมั้ย?” เด็กน้อยพยักหน้า

“ใช่มั้ย…พระอาจารย์เลยคิดว่า การกราบก็ดี พิธีกรรมก็ดี วัดวาอารามก็ดี ไม่ใช่เนื้อหาสูงสุด ไม่ใช่แก่น แต่มันก็มีความหมาย พาให้เราเข้าถึงประโยชน์ที่สูงสุดที่อยู่ซ่อนในนั้น เป็นหน้าที่ที่เราต้องทำความเข้าใจ หากเราอยากจะเข้าใจมัน”

“พระอาจารย์เชื่อมั่นว่า ศาสนาที่แท้ไม่ได้อยู่ในวัตถุ สิ่งของ เพราะไม่เช่นนั้นแล้ว ‘บูโรพุทโธ’ ที่เป็นศาสนสถานที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในโลก มีเจดีย์ละลานตา จะต้องมีพระ มีชาวพุทธจำนวนมากตามกัน แต่เดี๋ยวนี้เป็นอย่างไรบ้าง? รู้มั้ย?“ เด็กน้อยส่ายหน้า

“…ตอนนี้ เป็นเพียงสถานที่ท่องเที่ยว ไม่มีพระอยู่อาศัยแล้ว”

“…ที่หนูว่าจะลดวัดต่างๆ ลง นี่หนูคิดว่าจะเอาไปทำอะไรเหรอ?” “คืออย่างเอาไปเป็นสวนสาธารณะอย่างเนี่ยน่ะค่ะ”

“ดีนะ…เข้าท่า พระอาจารย์ชอบ คนอื่นจะได้มาใช้กันเยอะๆ มีต้นไม้ มีสัตว์ต่างๆ ด้วย ทุกคนจะได้สบายใจ” เด็กน้อยตาวาว

“แต่เราสามารถทำให้วัดมีต้นไม้เยอะๆ ได้มั้ยล่ะ ทำวัดให้เหมือนสวนสาธารณะไง ไอเดียดีมั้ย?” รอยยิ้มเด็กน้อยผุดขึ้น

“…ซึ่งถึงแม้พระอาจารย์ไม่อยากให้เราติดอยู่ที่วัตถุหรือรูปแบบพิธีกรรมขนาดไหน พระอาจารย์ก็เห็นประโยชน์ของมันอยู่นะ หนูดูนั่นสิ !”

ปลายนิ้วชี้ไปที่ ‘กล่องไม้แกะสลัก’ เด็กๆ ทั้งห้องหันหน้าไปมองเป็นตาเดียว

“…กล่องนี้อาจจะเป็นกล่องไม้ธรรมดาๆ ไม่มีค่าอะไร แต่พอแกะสลักปุ๊บ ดูมีค่าขึ้นมาทันทีเลย ดูแตกต่างจากกล่องอื่นๆ ช่างที่ทำก็ต้องมีฝีมือ มีเวลา ทุ่มเทเอาใจใส่กว่าจะเกิดผลงานเช่นนี้ขึ้น

“…ถ้ามีกล่องไม้หลายๆ กล่อง แล้วจะต้องเลือกเก็บไว้สักหนึ่งอัน กล่องนี้คงเป็นกล่องแรกๆ ที่ถูกเลือกก่อน

“…นี่เรียกว่า ‘คุณค่าของความสวยงาม’ พวกโบสถ์ เจดีย์ สถานที่สวยๆ งามๆ คนก็จะมาดูแลรักษาก่อน ทำความสะอาด เก็บรักษาการใช้งานที่จะเกิดขึ้นภายในอาคารเหล่านั้น พระอาจารย์เดาว่า แรกเริ่มเดิมทีธรรมเนียมนิยมในการสร้างวัดต่างๆ ให้สวยงาม คงเป็นแบบนี้”

“อีกนิดนะ เรื่องบุญหรือบาป ชวนหนูทำความเข้าใจความหมายก่อน บุญ แปลว่า การชำระใจให้สะอาด บาป แปลว่า การทำให้จิตใจตกต่ำ เศร้าหมอง”

“การที่หนูอยากจะทำสวนสาธารณะ นี่บุญหรือบาป?” “บุญค่ะ”

“ถ้าหนูรู้สึกรำคาญ อยากจะทุบวัดให้หมดๆ ไป นี่บุญหรือบาป?” “บาปค่ะ”

“แล้วถ้าหนูกราบด้วยความเข้าใจ อยากจะฝึกตนเองให้อ่อนน้อมถ่อมตน พร้อมรับฟังธรรมะจากพระ นี่บุญหรือบาป?” “บุญค่ะ”

“การที่หนูกราบแบบขอไปที หลงๆ ลืมๆ ทำตามเพื่อนๆ ไป นี่บุญหรือบาป?” เด็กน้อยนิ่ง เหลือบตามองบน

“ยังไม่ชัดใช่มั้ย?” “ค่ะ“ เธอพยักหน้าแรง

“งั้นพระอาจารย์ก็ฝากหนูสังเกต ‘ใจ’ ตัวเองนะ ว่ามันเป็นยังไง บุญหรือบาป สะอาดหรือตกต่ำ ไม่ใช่แค่การกราบ แต่เป็นทุกๆ การกระทำ คำพูด และความคิดเลย”

“นี่พระอาจารย์ พอจะตอบคำถามหนูได้กี่เปอร์เซ็นต์?” “ร้อยเปอร์เซ็นต์ค่ะ” “เหรอ…โอเค ขอบคุณมากค่ะสำหรับคำถาม”

เด็กๆ พากันกราบแล้วเดินออกจากศาลาไป ผู้เขียนอาศัย “ตีเหล็กตอนร้อน” พิจารณาชื่นชมคำถามและคำตอบเมื่อสักครู่

คำถามของเด็กน้อยคนนี้ ไม่ใช่เด็กๆ เลย คำถามเธอเป็น ‘ผู้ใหญ่’ มากกว่าผู้ใหญ่หลายคนที่เคยถามมาเสียอีก

มันทั้งความคมคาย ละเอียดและมีชั้นเชิง น้ำเสียงชัดเจน มั่นใจ เลือกแสดงออกอย่างกล้าหาญพร้อมไปกับเจือความนอบน้อมอยู่ในที ถามได้ตรงประเด็น เกิดประโยชน์ สร้างรอยหยักในสมองให้ทั้งผู้ถูกถามและผู้ร่วมฟัง

ระหว่างฟัง เธอมองหน้าและคิดตาม มีปฏิกิริยาตอบสนอง ช่วยให้เกิดการร่วมเรียนรู้ไปด้วยกัน เป็นผู้ฟังที่ดีไม่ชัดจังหวะ และที่สำคัญรอยยิ้มและแววตาของเธอได้กระจายไปให้กำลังใจเพื่อนๆ ในห้องด้วย

และนี่ มันทำให้ผู้ตอบ รู้สึกดี ภูมิใจที่ได้มานั่งอยู่ตรงนี้ ในวันนี้ เวลานี้

ดีใจจริงๆ ที่ยังมีเด็กที่มีจิตใจที่งดงาม คิดถึงธรรมชาติ และคิดทำประโยชน์สุขให้ผู้อื่นอยู่ แถมเธอยังรู้และสนใจใน “พุทธะ” ที่เป็นแก่นสารสาระที่แท้จริงอีกด้วย

“มันน่าภูมิใจจริงๆ ที่ได้รับรู้ว่าธรรมะกำลังเคลื่อนไปสู่คนรุ่นหลัง จริงมั้ยครับ?”

ผู้เขียนไม่ได้ถามใคร ได้แต่หันไปมองรูปปั้นหินอ่อนลักษณะคล้ายคนที่วางไว้ข้างหลัง น้อมระลึกถึงคุณของพระพุทธองค์ ผู้เป็นบรมครู ไม่เสื่อมคลาย

อาศรมขันติสาร บ้านไม้ที่เขาเรียกกุฏิ ๑๕ มิถุนายน ๒๕๖๖ แหล่งที่มา #Phramaha Fookij Jutipanyo

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

There aren’t many things in the technology realm that evoke the same level of disgust as having to deal with passwords. For I.T. staff printers are a close second, but for everyone else, passwords are something most would gladly vote off the island. Unfortunately they play a key role (pun fully intended) in verifying your access to your accounts, the same way a physical key verifies your access to your home. But why are they the way they are? And are there any ways we can make them easier to deal with?

When it comes to access security, there are different ways a system can confirm you have access. These are called “factors”, and there are three of them:

Possession Factor: Something you have. This could be a traditional key, a keycard, a fob, or security key.

Inherence Factor: Something you are. Biometrics such as fingerprints and Apple’s FaceID are examples of this.

Knowledge Factor: Something you know. Passwords and PINs are the most common examples.

For knowledge factor methods we have three general options for managing them:

Memorize: This is fine if you only have a few passwords to memorize, but most of us have more than few things to log into, and even more if we include PINs (which are another form of passwords).

Write them down: Much easier than memorizing, especially if you’re making sure each password is unique. A password book is good for up to a few dozen entries but after that will get cumbersome to search through.

Password manager: This is currently the ultimate in password management solutions (hence the name). A password manager can take care of generating, saving, and typing your passwords, as well as your usernames and other form data!

There is one major con to using a password manager; it’s not quite as humanly intuitive as a password book. It’s another system you’ll have to learn and maintain. But the amount of work that it saves and the improved security make it worth the effort. The ultimate goal of password managers is to maximize security and minimize cognitive load.

Okay, you’ve decided to use a password manager. You’ll need to choose from two categories, depending on your level of trust and how much work you’re willing to do. The first are hosted or cloud systems. With these, someone else (the password manager company) is taking care of most of the technical details for you. Bitwarden, 1Password, Proton Pass, Apple Passwords, and built-in browser systems are popular. Sign up for an account, install the browser extension or app on all your devices, and away you go! The downside: you’re trusting these companies to keep your passwords safe, and they’re less than perfect. Do a search for “LastPass leak” for an example. Also, if you’re like me, you may harbour a general distrust of companies (and governments…and banks…and squirrels…and seed oils...wait, what were we talking about?).

Fear not, for the second option requires far less trust in faceless organizations (or rodents). You can self-host your own password manager! The obvious downside is the extra work to set up and maintain it. But hey, no shadowy supervillains up in your passwords! Woohoo! Vaultwarden and KeePass are popular here. And it’s even easier if you have a server like I mentioned in “A Subscription-Free, Cloud-Free Office”.

A few extra notes and further reading on the subject of passwords and security. Regardless of your choice, it’s a good idea to have a plan for granting someone else access to your passwords in case of emergencies, or if something happens to you. If you have a family lawyer, ask them about “digital legacy planning”. Or at the very least leave access instructions with a trusted family member or friend.

If you decide to use a password manager, MFA is still necessary, especially for high-risk accounts like banking and email. MFA will probably get its own article from me in the future.

Finally, you may see hear about “passwordless” and “passkey” systems. These are relatively new, and despite the name, are not complete replacements for passwords. For now, think of them as fancy passwords. Passwords in formalwear. Passwords on the way to the opera. Passwords on the way to a $10,000/plate fundraiser that definitely isn’t a political money laundering operation held at an art gallery that definitely isn’t also a money laundering operation. Squirrel!

If you or your organization want help with your password management, you can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ f7a1599c:6f2484d5

In March 2020, Lucas was afraid.

The economy was grinding to a halt. Markets were in freefall. In a sweeping response, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented intervention—buying everything from Treasury bonds and mortgages to corporate debt, expanding the money supply by $4 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. government issued over $800 billion in stimulus checks to households across the country.

These extraordinary measures may have averted a wave of business failures and bank runs—but they came at a cost: currency debasement and rising inflation. Alarmed by the scale of central bank intervention and its consequences for savers, Lucas decided to act.

In a state of mild panic, he withdrew $15,000 from his bank account and bought ten gold coins. Then he took another $10,000 and bought two bitcoins. If the dollar system failed, Lucas wanted something with intrinsic value he could use.

He mentioned his plan to his friend Daniel, who laughed.

“Why don’t you stock up on guns and cigarettes while you’re at it?” Daniel quipped. “The Fed is doing what it has to—stabilizing the economy in a crisis. Sure, $4 trillion is a lot of money, but it's backed by the most productive economy on Earth. Don’t panic. The world’s not ending.”

To prove his point, Daniel put $25,000 into the S&P 500—right at the pandemic bottom.

And he was right. Literally.

By Spring 2025, the stock market was near all-time highs. The world hadn’t ended. The U.S. economy kept moving, more or less as usual. Daniel’s investment had nearly tripled—his $25,000 had grown to $65,000.

But oddly enough, Lucas’ seemingly panicked reaction had been both prudent and profitable.

His gold coins had climbed from $1,500 to $3,300 apiece—a 120% gain. Bitcoin had soared from $5,000 to $90,000, making his two coins worth $180,000. Altogether, Lucas’s $25,000 allocation had grown to $213,000—a nearly 10x return. And his goal wasn’t even profit. It was safety.

With that kind of fortune, you’d expect Lucas to feel confident, even serene. He had more than enough to preserve his purchasing power, even in the face of years of inflation.

But in the spring of 2025, Lucas felt anything but calm.

He was uneasy—gripped by a sense that the 2020 crisis hadn’t been a conclusion, but a prelude.

In his mind, 2020 was just the latest chapter in a troubling sequence: the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic shock of 2020. Each crisis had been more sudden, more sweeping, and more dependent on emergency measures than the last.

And Lucas couldn’t shake the feeling that the next act—whenever it came—would be more disruptive, more severe, and far more damaging.

@ 15cf81d4:b328e146

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@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Does your life feel overly complicated? Do most things feel like 10 steps when they used to be 3? Does simply maintaining your existence feel like a hamster wheel with hopscotch squares on the inside? Do you find yourself yearning for “simpler times”? While there are many things in a complex society outside our control, personal technology choices are still within our purview. Maybe it’s time to consider deleting some of the tech from our lives in an effort to simplify.

I worked at a phone shop for some time, and one of the things that surprised me was how many non-smart phones we sold. We had a lot of customers whose only phone needs were calling and the occasional text. Anything their phone couldn’t do could be taken care of on a computer at home or at work, and a smartphone would have been a whole ‘nother stack of skills to learn and maintain. So why not go without one? For less than $100 you can get a plain flip phone from your local phone shop, or hop on your marketplace of choice and get a used one for half that. They’ll take the same SIM card your smart phone does, so simply power down, swap the card over, and try it out for a while!

Social media is another one that you can probably trim down on. How many platforms are you actively using? I’m most likely going to remove Snapchat from my phone as the notifications from Snapchat themselves are annoying, I hardly ever use it, and I’m connected with those I use it with elsewhere. I helped someone recently who uses Facebook to connect with family but has been struggling with the technical aspects of securely maintaining their account. Switching to group texts or another platform those family members are already using may be easier than fighting with Facebook account compromises and their account recovery processes.

You may even consider abandoning social media completely. “I’m not on social media” has become less the exclusive domain of luddites and is certainly not only spoken by older generations. Any Gen Zers who took part in the “nose cover” trend early this year will understand. Try going on a social media fast for a few weeks (or even a few days) and see if you feel the need to return.

Using myself for another example, I bought a smartwatch about 3 years ago and wear it fairly regularly. But the work to make sure its charged, keep up with the changes, and any manual maintenance items has me thinking I won’t be replacing it when it dies. The nice-to-haves it brings aren’t worth the trouble.

A final hot take: In your workplace, how many staff’s only interaction with technology is time tracking or timesheets? Paper timesheets may be an option. I know, I know, Hell has frozen over and the tech guy is talking about switching something from digital to paper. But my job is supposed to be to guide toward efficiency. If bludgeoning your blue collar staff into the cyberpunk dystopian future of a spreadsheet (or even worse, a geofence-powered time tracking app on their phones) turns out to be more work than entering a handful of numbers off of paper timesheets, maybe paper is the more efficient (and humane) option.

If you like the idea of deleting technology at work or at home and want some help with it, you can find us at scalebright.ca.

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

It wasn’t so long ago that the mainstream conversation around population was exclusively focused on the dangers of overpopulation. The fatal flaws in the Malthusian theory had yet to be disproven clearly and obviously by observable demographic trends. That’s been gradually changing, and while it’s hardly a mainstream consensus, concerns about falling birthrates and the risk of population collapse have taken over the population conversion on the political right, and sometimes beyond.

There’s no questioning the data at this point. Fertility rates over most of the world have been in precipitous decline, and if the current trajectory continues, global population will peak very soon and fall rather dramatically. And even the falling population itself is much less of a threat than the aging population that will inevitably precede it. Having a large cohort of older and retired people and a small cohort of young workers is an existential threat to the modern welfare state, and to the entire credit-based fiat monetary system that supports it. But that’s a subject for another day.

There are a multitude of different theories that attempt to explain why this is happening. I’ll name some of the most common ones:

• Increased education and employment opportunities for women

• Urbanization

• Economic factors

• Access to contraception

• Changing social and cultural norms

• Delayed marriage

• Improvements in infant mortality rates

• Government policies

• Environmental concerns

• Pornography

• Feminism

• Endocrine disrupting chemicals

• Dating apps

Most rational thinkers agree there must be multiple factors playing a role. But the fact that the problem is so wide-spread, and populations that seem to be resisting the trend are so rare, shows that the strongest underlying factors are cross-culturally powerful and not easily resisted or reversed with marginal cultural differences and standard public policy efforts.

While populations that resist the trend are rare, they are not quite non-existent. A few groups stand out for their persistently high fertility rates. On a geographic basis, sub-Saharan Africa is the only major region still maintaining above-replacement fertility rates. For various reasons, I don’t think Africa is the most useful place to look for answers on what’s causing the decline elsewhere or how it could be reversed. One reason is that Africa seems to be following the global pattern, just with a lag. In another few decades the data may look very different, just like it does for South America today compared to 20 years ago.

In my opinion, a more useful place to look for data is in smaller population sub-groups within a geographic area that have fertility rates significantly higher than the general population levels. Rural populations in general have higher fertility rates than urban populations, but the difference isn’t really enough to consider it significant. The groups that fit this category well seem to be exclusively religious. These include certain Christian denominations in the traditional Anabaptist category including the Amish, Mennonites, and Hutterites, Muslims in some areas, and Jews, particularly the most orthodox sects. Mormons recently fell out of the high-fertility religious group category, which would also make for some interesting research.

It would be fascinating to compare these groups and see what they have in common outside just being religious in nature. I don’t have the knowledge to make that comparison. Instead, I’m going to focus on the group that’s often referenced and analyzed by people without much personal knowledge, the Amish.

I have read numerous articles and comments that reference the Amish to support this or that theory on the cause of falling fertility. One thing I notice is an obvious lack of understanding of the Amish culture, which leads to faulty arguments that don’t reflect reality. This isn’t surprising, given the insular and poorly-understood nature of the culture, the plethora of ridiculously incorrect “Amish” reality TV shows and pop culture myths, and the fact that the number of people with firsthand knowledge of Amish culture from an insider perspective who also write about demographic trends on any public platform is probably zero.

Well, was zero. I’m about to make that one.

My Qualifications

Since I’m claiming to have this knowledge, it’s only fair to give a little background as to how I got it. I choose to stay anonymous on the internet, and given that this is personal information that could make it significantly easier to dox me, I’ll be deliberately vague.

My parents were both born in Amish families. They didn’t stay, opting to leave the Amish church and culture before getting married and starting their family. My grandparents were all Amish, and all my cousins and most of my extended family remain Amish to this day. My parents didn’t move out of the Amish community, staying in the area and joining a conservative Mennonite church that was about the closest thing to being Amish without actually being Amish. The Mennonite community has a generally good relationship with and a lot of respect for the Amish community, given their deep similarities and shared history and cultural background.

I grew up interacting regularly with Amish relatives, neighbors and community members, speaking the Pennsylvania Dutch my parents taught us and used exclusively at home. I’m very certain that a real deep understanding of Amish culture is almost impossible without speaking their language, just like many other cultures around the world. The Amish speak English as their second language, but there are aspects of their culture that aren’t spoken about in English.

This lifelong proximity to and interaction with the Amish community has, I believe, given me some unique insights into the factors supporting their high fertility rates that no amount of academic research will ever uncover.

Who are the Amish?

First, some basics.

The Amish are a traditionalist Christian denomination. The way to understand the Amish is as a religious denomination first, and a culture second. Getting the two mixed up makes it impossible to understand why the Amish live the way they do.

Sure, their unique lifestyles makes them noteworthy as a group. But that lifestyle is based on and maintained by their religious beliefs and convictions.

Fundamentally, the Amish attempt to live out the Gospel as Jesus taught in the Sermon on the Mount. They believe their church has done so historically, and that the best way to make sure they keep doing so in the future is to view any changes to their traditional lifestyle with extreme skepticism and resistance.

The two primary doctrines that separate them from the mainstream Protestant Reformation, which is their group’s origin, are the doctrines of nonconformity and nonresistance. They apply the doctrine of nonconformity, the command to “be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God” in both a spiritual and a practical sense. They believe that Christians are to be radically different from non-Christians, both in their beliefs and attitudes, and in their lifestyle and appearance. And they apply the command to “resist not evil”, nonresistance, to mean that it’s a sin to use physical force or violence against another person for any reason whatsoever. They don’t make any exception for military service of any type, which they object to as a matter of conscience, or for self-defense, which they refuse to engage in even if it means death for themselves or their family.

The Amish do not practice infant baptism. Their young people must choose to be baptized and formally become members of the church, usually in their late teens or early twenties. As part of the baptism ceremony, they make a vow to remain faithful to God and the church until death. The Amish, as a church, interpret this vow to mean that the new church member will remain a member of the Amish church for life. Leaving the Amish church after making this vow and being baptized is viewed as breaking the vow, and is the justification for their practice of shunning, or the ban. Those who do so are cut off from contact with the community in various ways. Typically they won’t eat a meal with a shunned person, ride in a car a shunned person is driving, or do business with a shunned person. That includes immediate family. Failure to enforce this shunning against someone, even your own child, can result in running afoul of the church leadership and also being excommunicated and shunned.

This punishment, however, only applies to people who leave the church after baptism. Those young people who choose not to be baptized and leave the church instead are free to be treated just like any other non-Amish person, although their family essentially disown them and treat them like a shunned person anyway, if they’re especially strict and upset about the betrayal of Amish values.

Most Amish people don’t believe that the Amish are the only true church, or that only Amish people are true Christians. Most are accepting of other conservative Anabaptist denominations, and respect their values and practices as a different but valid way to be Christian. Church teaching strongly suggests that those who fall under the ban are living in sin and won’t make it to heaven. Most individuals, though, probably wouldn’t agree with that in every case if they were free to give their true opinion on the issue.

The Amish maintain a fertility rate of around 6 to 7 children per woman. Some recent research suggests this may be starting to fall somewhat, but the data isn’t extensive enough to make a solid judgement yet.

There are a wide variety of different “flavors” of Amish in different areas of the US, a fact they’re very aware of. The data strongly indicates that the most conservative and technologically primitive communities have slightly higher fertility rates and significantly higher retention rates of young people.

Why do the Amish Maintain High Fertility Rates?

Okay, enough background. Time to dive into the reasons I believe the Amish maintain their historically high fertility rate despite living in a developed, modern economy surrounded by people with dramatically sub-replacement fertility rates.

I thought long and hard about the best way to approach this. Going through a list of factors topically seemed like the obvious one. But the more I thought it through, the less I liked it. For one, how do you arrange the factors? Order of importance? How do you decide that? Also, the factors are so inter-related that they’ll be very tough to separate and understand individually. Finally, it seems dry and boring. Nobody needs that.

So I’m going to try something different. I’m going to approach it from a narrative angle. I’ll try to describe the life of a typical Amish person, from birth to death, in a chronological way. That’s the best approach to present it in a way that makes the culture relatable, while also tying the different factors together logically.

I’ll describe the experience for both men and women as best I can, and try to present the various factors encouraging high fertility as I see them at the appropriate part of the story.

This will likely be an article that gets revised later to address any questions that come up, so don’t consider it the final word on the subject.

Alright, time to get started.

Subscribed

First off, this might seem obvious, but the typical Amish baby is born into a large family. On average, they’ll have 5 or 6 siblings, and more is not at all uncommon. Families of 10 won’t raise an eyebrow, and 12-16 children aren’t unheard of, especially in the past when mortality was higher and second marriages were more common among younger widowers who went on to have children with their second wife. Humans are social creatures, and the environment and people we grow up surrounded by have a strong influence on our frame of reference. Studies have shown that women are very unlikely to have more children than their mother had. The number of siblings in your family, and in families you observe and interact with, doesn’t determine the number of children you will have, but it does strongly influence the number of children you feel is a “normal” amount. That makes it a kind of ratchet effect, where it’s very unlikely that a generation raised in homes with one or two children will go on to have larger families of their own collectively.

This cultural norm of large families establishes a kind of inertia that normalizes high fertility right from birth. Amish children grow up surrounded by siblings, observing, and as they get older, helping with the care and maintenance of a large family. All their relatives, cousins and extended family are also likely to belong to large families. The average Amish child grows up with dozens of first cousins, and sometimes hundreds of more distant cousins, many of whom they likely know well and socialize with regularly. This experience establishes a mental framework where a large family is assumed to be the default. And there is no stronger human tendency than the urge to fit in with the people around you.

Amish children grow up with strong gender norms taught from a very young age. The Amish culture follows strict and conservative gender roles. Boys and men do male things, girls and women do female things, and there is little effort or desire to create any overlapping space.

Boys grow up doing traditionally masculine things. They play outside, do chores on the farm, help their dad with his work, probably get a BB gun before age 10, go hunting and fishing, play sports, and generally prepare for a lifetime of physical labor and providing for a wife and family.

Girls grow up doing traditionally feminine things. They help care for younger siblings, help with housework, play with dolls, learn to cook and preserve food, learn to sew, and generally prepare for a lifetime of caring for and raising children and maintaining a large household.

It’s a common misconception that the Amish are mostly farmers who live off the land, subsistence style. That’s not at all accurate. While there are still Amish who make their living farming, at least in some areas, that has become the exception. The large scale of modern agriculture means it takes a lot of acres and a lot of machinery to run a profitable commercial farming operation. The Amish reject the use of most modern agricultural machinery, which makes them uncompetitive in commercial agriculture outside more niche markets like dairy, produce, or greenhouses. And the fact that they live in small geographic communities with large families means they quickly buy up all available farmland in an area until they price themselves out of the market. Prime farmland in heavy Amish farming communities like Lancaster, Pennsylvania routinely sells for over $25,000 per acre, which is more than a commercial crop farming operation might bring in over a lifetime.

So the Amish have moved away from a primarily agriculture based economy to various other occupations. In some areas they work in RV factories. Most work in trades, primarily construction. Many are masons, carpenters, cabinet builders, mechanics, welders, etc.

But they reject the ownership of cars, so they still use their characteristic horses and buggies for transportation. In reality, they use cars for most of their transportation needs. But they don’t own cars or have driver’s licenses, so they rely on “Amish taxi drivers” to chauffer them around. The men hire a driver to take them to and from work, if they work in construction or some other job outside the home. The women hire a driver take them to town for their shopping or for other errands. The exception is church. They’re still required to drive to church in a horse and buggy, so every family must keep a horse for that reason, as a bare minimum. In many cases that’s the only time they ever use a horse and buggy, and if it weren’t for that requirement they wouldn’t own one at all.

But that requirement means every Amish family must own enough land to keep a horse, which takes a few acres and a small barn at minimum. This forces them to live in rural areas and raise their families in a somewhat agricultural environment, even if their occupation wouldn’t require that at all. So there are always chores for the children, animals to care for, and space to play outside with their siblings.

Amish children grow up with very limited exposure to mainstream cultural pressures. Their mothers inevitably raise them at home until they start school. They don’t have TV or cell phones, so they aren’t exposed to any mainstream culture on a daily basis.

The Amish have their own schools, typically small one room schools within walking distance of all the families who attend. The teachers are often young single people, always Amish. They primarily teach basic academics: reading, writing, arithmetic, geography, history, etc. While the Amish speak both English and Pennsylvania Dutch, many Amish children are first exposed to English on a daily basis when they start school. School is taught in English, although there is limited teaching of the High German the Amish use in their church services.

Amish children attend school until 8th grade. The schools run the minimum number of days required by the state, usually 160. There is no higher education beyond grade 8. No Amish attend college.

Amish children are taught from little up that they are not like other people. The differences between their culture and mainstream culture are emphasized, and Amish culture is praised as the ideal, at a religious level. They're taught that the way to do what’s right is to do what the church asks, and those who don’t do what the church asks are in the wrong.

The Amish rate and describe everyone on a scale from “high” to “low”. A person who isn’t Amish, who isn’t a Christian, is a “high” person, or an “English” person. To go from being Amish to being “English” is the worst, most damning, failure imaginable. The Amish are “low” people. The more strict and traditional an Amish sect, the “lower” they are. Being “low” is seen as a virtue. Other conservative Christian denominations, particularly other Anabaptist groups, are also considered “low” people and generally viewed favorably, but they aren’t as “low” as the Amish.

Amish boys grow up expecting to start work full time at age 14, and to work at some type of trade or physical labor. There are no white-collar career tracks, essentially. Entrepreneurship is encouraged, and many young Amish men start their own construction crew or home business in their 20s or 30s after a few years of experience working for someone else. Often Amish boys start off working for and with their dad, in whatever trade or business he operates. But if they’re not interested in that particular occupation, they’re free to find another. Amish businesses and tradesmen are always willing to hire young Amish boys and train them in a craft. A good work ethic is considered a virtue, and Amish are known for their skilled craftsmanship and willingness to work harder than the competition. These traits are taught and encouraged from little on up.

Amish men as a whole do very well financially. For one, they start working and developing skills and work ethic a decade earlier than the typical college graduate. The trades pay well, and of course anyone could take advantage of that, but the mainstream narrative discourages men from pursuing a trade career by labeling it low status and keeping them in education until their prime years to gain a work ethic are past. It’s not uncommon for young Amish men just out of 8th grade to land a job on a carpentry crew for $25-30 an hour. With bonuses, some of them are bringing in $90k/year before age 20. Another advantage young Amish men have is lower expenses. They can certainly find places to spend their money, typically hobbies like hunting and fishing, but things like expensive designer clothes and accessories or overpriced car payments aren’t really an option. They also benefit from the Amish exemption to Social Security taxes. The Amish don’t pay into or collect Social Security. More on that later, but it helps immensely to keep more of your paycheck in your early prime working years.

Amish girls grow up expecting to get married at a young age and raise a large family as a traditional housewife. Amish girls aren’t encouraged to have a “career”, and the idea would be silly to them. They are expected to work, but the work is either helping their mom with the household, working on the family farm or business, or doing something like teaching school or working at an Amish farmer’s market to pass the time between leaving school and marriage. It’s never viewed as a permanent occupation, because marriage and motherhood is the default aspirational lifestyle. A common job for young Amish girls is working as a “maid” to help a new mother with housework at the end of pregnancy and for the first few months after childbirth. All new mothers can get this type of help if they want, and it will usually be a younger sister, cousin, or niece of appropriate age. Otherwise the community will find a suitable girl who’s available for the job. A “maid” will sometimes travel to a different Amish community for this reason, given how large extended families are and how frequently Amish families move across the country to a different community. This is often an opportunity for them to attract the attention of a young man outside their local community, and is one of the only ways for a long-distance relationship and marriage to begin.

Amish young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, with very few exceptions. They’re also typically expected to work for their dad in the family business for no pay, and to give any earnings they make at a day job outside the home to their parents. This is typically expected until age 21, or until they get married, whichever comes first. More recently, with the rising cost of land and housing, it’s becoming more common to make age 18 the cutoff. And when a young couple is engaged, the parents typically allow them to start saving their income for their future household. This practice helps parents offset some of the expenses of raising such large families, along with the fact that no money is spent on higher education. It also provides one strong incentive to marry as early as possible.

Amish culture revolves around family and the community. Extended families are large, and people are expected to know and interact with their family. Conversation with a stranger at a social event invariably starts by asking their name, then asking who their parents, grandparents, and other relatives are until some distant family connection or a mutual acquaintance is found. Since the Amish community has a small pool of family names, and tends to heavily favor certain Biblical first names, enough people end up with the same name to make things really confusing. People are often identified by two or three generations of their family, for example “Sam Yoder’s John’s Amos” for an Amos Yoder who’s father was John Yoder and grandfather Sam Yoder.

Social activities are either family events or church events, or both. Weddings and funerals are the main social functions other than church services, and people are expected to attend as many as possible among their family and extended family, regardless of the distance. Given the large family sizes, most Amish have dozens of first cousins and many more distant cousins. Weddings and funerals can be almost weekly events. These are church events as well, so much of the local Amish community will usually attend. It will be an all day event, with the women and girls preparing a lunch and dinner for everyone. After the meal, the women and girls will wash the dishes and clean up, while the men sit around and talk. No cell phones, remember. Talking is the main form of social interaction. Topics typically include work, family news, hunting and fishing stories (Amish men hunt and fish with the same enthusiasm typical American men watch sports), horses, and interesting or funny stories about family and friends. Those with a knack for entertaining oratory are well respected and appreciated in the Amish community.

Of course the women do their fair share of talking as well, in the kitchen while cleaning up after the meal, and later in the living room where they join the men after the domestic work is done. The main topics of conversation always revolve around family, immediate and extended. News travels through the Amish community faster than any social media platform, because nothing builds Amish female status more than being the first to call with the news that great uncle so-and-so was injured in a farming accident or nephew so-and-so has a new baby, along with all the pertinent details about the name, size, and health of the baby and how the mother is doing and how many grandchildren that makes in total for the lucky grandparents.

While the adults are talking, the children are free to play either inside or preferably outside. Trampolines, climbing trees, playing in the hayloft, tag, volleyball, and softball are favorite activities at various ages. The younger boys and girls typically play together, but as they get older the girls spend more time visiting while the boys prefer more structured sports. Softball is a game for boys, but volleyball is popular with mixed teams of boys and girls at any age.

Visiting relatives or other community families is also a popular social activity, especially on “in-between Sunday”. The Amish have church every other week, and the week without church is often an opportunity to visit another family. Invitations are not expected or required, and anyone stopping by will be expected to stay for dinner and into the evening. At these type of events, the older children are often expected to sit and visit with the adults. Sitting still and being quiet are mandatory skills, since church services are 2 hours or longer and held in barns or sheds without air conditioning filled with backless wooden benches. Self-discipline is not an optional virtue, because the alternative is physical discipline.

As Amish young people enter their mid teen years, they go from childhood to youth. At a certain age, usually around 15 or 16, they officially become youth and enter the stage everyone is familiar with, “rumspringa”. That’s a Pennsylvania Dutch word that translates to “running around”. The Amish use it more as a verb, but pop culture has adopted it as a noun based on some wildly inaccurate reality TV shows and depictions.

The reality is, rumspringa varies widely from community to community, mostly based on what the parents and church leaders tolerate. Remember that Amish church membership is a fully voluntary decision, and Amish young people are free to join or not, as they decide. Late teens is the typical age for that decision. In the meantime, they are free to make their own decisions, subject to their parents’ rules. Breaking the rules can mean that at some point, they won’t be welcome to live in their parents’ household any more. That’s a fairly strong deterrent to the most extreme infractions.

At this stage, young Amish men will be buying their own horse and buggy, and both boys and girls will be permitted to attend the Sunday night “singing”. This is a social activity held at someone's house on Sunday evening, involving all the youth in the community coming together for dinner, playing volleyball, and singing German hymns together. The purpose is to provide a somewhat controlled social environment for young men and women to interact and hopefully meet their future spouse. Dating couples can attend together, and dates are permitted after the formal activities, with the young men often driving their date home late at night before finally heading home themselves.

Depending on the tolerance of the community, the informal activities can be a bit more permissive than singing hymns and playing volleyball. Often the buggies will become a typical teenage party scene, with alcohol, smoking, a radio, illicit smartphones and DVD players, and some less-than-reserved interaction between boys and girls. The punishment for getting caught can be severe, but in many cases the adults tend to turn a blind eye to what’s happening, and let the young people do as they please.

A lot more could be said about the dynamics of this cultural practice, but specifics vary so much between communities that I don’t think there’s much value in doing so. The point I think is relevant to this discussion is the question of sex.

There’s no reason to go off into the weeds on how much, if any, sex occurs. Premarital sex is absolutely forbidden. Does it happen anyway? Humans being human, certainly. How much? Probably very little in most cases. Getting pregnant, or getting someone pregnant, is the one transgression with inevitable life-changing consequences. The “shotgun wedding” is alive and well among the Amish, and getting a girl pregnant means marrying her or being expelled from the Amish community permanently, no exceptions. Besides that, getting pregnant outside of marriage is the most disgraceful and shameful thing a girl could do. It happens very very rarely, put it that way.

So casual sex within the community is basically off the table. What about casual sex with “English” people? This is where the Amish cultural practices play a big role. The Amish dress very distinctly. They can’t go anywhere in their traditional clothes without being instantly recognized. They also don’t drive cars, so going somewhere means getting a ride with someone. And their parents will usually keep an eye on their plans and whereabouts. So let’s imagine how an Amish teenager might go about finding a casual sexual encounter.

First off, getting ahold of a cell phone would be essential. They need some way to communicate with the outside world, and coordinate with their “partner in crime.” A lot of Amish teenagers do this, often with the help of slightly older people who have left the Amish, but keep ties with the community, maybe an older sibling or cousin. These are often the same people who buy alcohol for Amish teens.

Then, they need to get some non-Amish clothes. Remember, every trip away from home will take a willing driver, a plausible excuse in a community where everyone knows everyone, and the guarantee of being immediately recognized if seen in public. And the Amish parents know who the “bad kids” are, the ones who left but are willing to help their younger relatives and friends break the rules. Getting caught hanging around with them will probably mean a lot less trust and a lot less freedom in the future.

For the girls, a change of “English” clothes and a new hairstyle will let them blend in quite well. Of course, they can’t be caught leaving or coming home in those clothes, or have the clothes found at home. Lots of logistical hurdles everywhere. For the boys, they have a very distinctive haircut. A new change of clothes won’t fix that. There’s really no way for them to hide the fact that they’re Amish, even if the accent and the lack of a driver’s license don’t give them away.

Assuming they manage all that, and sneak away from home undetected, how will they find someone to hook up with? They’re very insulated from popular culture, and probably not at all comfortable in typical social situations. For the girls, there’s the added risk that an accidental pregnancy, or even just getting caught, would ruin their reputation and any chance of marriage and a family in the Amish community. So they’re unlikely to even try, unless they’re already fully intending to leave the Amish for good. That only really happens if they have a guy ready to marry them outside the Amish community, for reasons I’ll get into more later. Briefly, the Amish culture and schooling leaves women poorly prepared to support themselves outside that culture.

For the boys, there’s the typical difficulty men face in finding casual sexual partners. Multiply that by the difficulty of not having a car or driver’s license, not being experienced in mainstream social norms, plus that obvious and undisguisable Amish haircut. And all that ignores the lifelong teaching that casual sex is sinful and wrong, and those who engage in it are going against the teachings of God and the church. The entire culture is specifically designed to discourage casual sex as strongly as possible, and it does an excellent job at that.

Why does that matter? Well, humans are all very much the same, with the same desires and instincts. And sex is one of the strongest of those desires. The Amish are certainly no different.

So the Amish religious practice and culture offers a very simple choice. You can choose sex outside of marriage, which will be difficult or impossible, occasional at best, and if you get caught will mean expulsion from the community your life is rooted in, and even if you don’t get caught will mean you’re committing a mortal sin that will keep you out of heaven if you don’t repent and change. Or, you can get married and have all the sex you want, and be respected and rewarded for it.

That’s really all it takes to sell the idea of marriage to most men.

When a couple does decide to get engaged, of course with permission from the girl’s father, the wedding happens within a reasonably short time, in acknowledgement of the temptation young people face in that situation.

So let’s take a little closer look at the gender differences between the choice to stay single or to marry. It’s helpful to lay out the different life paths available, and how they play out over time.

There are very few Amish who remain single throughout their life, and almost all of them are women. So let’s look at it through a man’s perspective first. What kind of life can a single Amish man expect?

First off, a lifetime of celibacy. There’s hardly any need to go further, that’s a deal breaker for most men. If they choose to stay single for some reason, most will leave the Amish completely rather than accept those terms.

So maybe it’s more useful to look at incentives for early marriage, which is the norm. I’m a strong believer that incentives create outcomes, so I’ll be taking a hard look at incentives throughout this article.

Young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, in most cases. Remember, no going off to college either. So from age 14 on, they’re stuck living with Mom and Dad, working full time, and not even keeping their own income. That gets old fast. Getting married, moving out, and starting a family looks better every day. Besides that, Amish women do a lot to improve the lives of their men. The Amish are well known for their delicious food. Well, that’s because the Amish women cook and bake. As a single guy, moving out of Mom’s house means not getting delicious home-cooked food every day. And they don’t have an iPhone to order DoorDash either, so it’s pizza delivery, hiring a driver to go to a restaurant, or whatever you can cook yourself. And Amish boys don’t grow up learning how to cook, that’s women’s work. Same with making clothes. Amish mothers and wives sew clothes for their families, since they’re forbidden to wear commercially available clothes in general. So a single guy is dependent on his mom for new clothes as well. Same with washing clothes. Most Amish have fairly modern clothes washing machines, although they don’t use dryers. But washing and folding clothes isn’t a job most boys grow up doing, so they’re pretty lost if they have to try it.

All in all, there aren’t a lot of upsides to staying single longer than absolutely necessary. There are plenty of benefits to marriage, though. For one, marriage is seen as a necessary step to full maturity as a man. It’s even expressed as a visible marker. Single young men typically stay clean-shaven. Once they get married, shaving is completely forbidden, and they are required to grow out a full beard. So the difference between married and single men is obvious at first glance, and is acknowledged as a marker of full maturity.

Then of course there’s the sexual access. No explanation needed.

Then there are all the benefits of an improved lifestyle a stay-at-home wife provides. That includes cooking, cleaning, washing clothes, caring for a garden, preserving food, helping with farm work or chores, and helping with his business. Many Amish wives are very involved in their husband’s career or business, whether that’s managing the bookkeeping, working in the greenhouses, or helping with daily chores on the farm. While most Amish communities use quite modern household appliances, powered with batteries, kerosene, or air pressure, the work of maintaining a household is still much more involved than for the typical American household. Especially when it comes to sewing, which very few American women do at all, but which took a large percentage of women’s time only a few generations ago. Among the Amish it still does.

I’m only focusing on the incentives for marriage right now, because that’s the first step. Of course, most married couples today don’t have 5-8 children, so there’s more to the story. But universal marriage, particularly early marriage, is an essential part of the puzzle.

Shifting focus to the women, here the picture is even more clear. Almost all lifelong single Amish people are women, and that’s not by choice. The Amish still maintain the “old maid” category that used to be part of mainstream culture. Single Amish women are almost invariably single because no man offered to marry them. Here’s why.

If single life is unappealing for Amish men, it’s positively bleak for women. Marriage and family life is the aspirational goal they’re taught from little up. And for good reason.

With their eighth-grade education, and without a driver’s license and car, their income earning potential is very limited. Most young women who aren’t busy on the farm or with the family business work as schoolteachers, housecleaners, babysitters, or cooks and servers at Amish restaurants or farmers’ markets. None of these jobs pay well. Enough to buy a few personal items, but not enough to buy a house or support even one person. And while it might be acceptable for a single Amish man to eventually buy a house and move out, at some point in his late 20s or early 30s, it’s really not acceptable at any age for an Amish old maid. Those old maids typically end up living with their parents, caring for them in old age, working the same type of jobs young girls do, and probably hoping that at some point an older widower with a family will show up and propose.

Marriage has massive lifestyle benefits for women, even more so than for men. Amish men typically do well financially, and often work in construction as well, or have friends and relatives who do. Amish houses are very nice and well constructed to say the least, and the wife gets the house she wants, the way she wants it. Being stingy with a house for your wife isn’t part of an Amish man’s mentality. Amish women are well rewarded for all their hard work keeping house, with a house they’ll be happy keeping. And of course a nice farm or at least some acreage, with space for a big garden, a barn for any animals, and space for greenhouses or whatever she needs for any home business ambitions she might have.

Along with that, Amish women have a lot of flexibility when it comes to spending money. Many Amish women handle most of the family finances. And the money her husband earns is family money, not his money. While the husband has final say in financial decisions, most Amish men don’t say no to their wives’ purchase requests often. Married Amish women have access to all the creature comforts the church allows to make their lives as pleasant as possible.

When it comes to status, the benefits are just as clear. Amish life revolves around family, and nothing is higher status than a thriving family of your own. The Amish version of posting exotic vacation pictures on Instagram is showing up to a social function with your new baby. It’s the automatic center of attention for weeks, until a newer baby show up in the community. And the default topic of conversation is always a woman’s children and their growth and development. Young girls grow up dreaming of the day they can join those conversations, and old maids are always outsiders in a certain sense, pitied by everyone else for their misfortune.

Being an old maid means being poor, low status, pitied by other women, and destined to live with your parents until they pass, with your only bitter-sweet consolation being the role of aunt to your dozens of nieces and nephews and maid to your sisters and sisters-in-law through their many pregnancies. Getting married means access to a man’s income, a nice new house just the way you want it, a farm, and an automatic status boost as a mother and eventually grandmother who always has lots to contribute to the conversation at social events.

As you can imagine, the incentives strongly favor marriage from both directions. Men benefit through improved lifestyle, status, and access to sex. Women benefit through improved lifestyle, economic opportunity, and status in the social hierarchy.

Given that the selection pool for potential partners is limited, mostly to the local Amish community, or occasionally another Amish community if there’s some interaction through family ties or social events, assortative mating is the norm. Young people can be choosy, sure. But they already know most of the people in their potential mating pool, and have probably known those people for most of their lives. They have a pretty good idea how desirable they are to potential partners, and the girls especially have to think long and hard about turning down a suitor. Men are always the initiators of a relationship, and the risk of turning down an eligible man and then never getting another offer, ending up as a dreaded old maid, is always lurking in the back of their minds.

Besides that, both men and women have multiple ways to improve their spouse’s life. Women are much more than just sexual objects. Their domestic role actually raises their husband’s standard of living significantly, in a way he can’t access as a single man. And men are all valuable to women, both for resources and for status as a wife and mother. Even a very average husband or wife is a massive lifestyle boost over remaining single.

By now it should be pretty clear why marriage is almost universal among the Amish, and marriage at what most would consider a young age (19-23) is more common than not. And I haven’t even mentioned any religious teaching, because frankly I don’t think that’s a major force on an individual level. The religious beliefs shape the social and material landscape, and that landscape provides the practical incentives that cause people to make the choices they do. The fact that an Amish interpretation of the Bible encourages marriage and children is one layer removed from the reasons individual 20-year-old Amish men and women choose to get married.

I pointed out earlier that getting married and having a high birthrate, or even getting married young and having a high birthrate, are not exactly the same thing. Plenty of married couples today have one, two, or even no children, even if they got married young enough to have ten if they chose to do so. So why are the Amish different?

There’s the too-obvious answer: they don’t allow the use of contraceptives. Occam’s razor and all, but it deserves a bit more explanation. After all, the Catholic Church doesn’t allow the use of contraceptives either, and look how well that’s working out for them. Of course the enforcement mechanism doesn’t have the teeth among Catholics that it has among the Amish, but that’s not the whole story. If they were motivated enough, there’d be a way to space the children out more, maybe end up without quite so many, without anyone knowing. That doesn’t happen, because the contraceptive ban is a dead letter when couples want to have as many children as possible, which the Amish typically do.

Again, I’ll go back to incentives. What are the incentives to have children specifically, as many as possible, and not just get married and “plan for a family one day”?

For one, status. For both men and women, a large family is a marker of high status. Parents are respected and honored for doing a good job of raising well-adjusted children.

Children are also less of a financial burden for the Amish. Their children are raised well, but not in a financially intensive way that’s become expected today. They don’t have to buy a new car or SUV to fit the family, they don’t buy every child a boatload of expensive electronic gadgets every birthday and Christmas, they don’t have to pay for frequent vacations or college tuition, and they don’t have to eat out or pay for takeout or pay for childcare or a house cleaner since the wife is handling all those domestic roles herself. And the Amish don’t practice helicopter parenting, so children are much more free to play and amuse themselves without constant supervision from their parents. They don’t have to be driven to 17 different weekly structured activities. They have a farm to play on and shelves full of books to read and some toys to play with if the weather is bad, and that’s about it. And of course as the family grows, the older siblings do a large percentage of the housework and help with the younger children.

The older teenagers that are working outside the home typically give their earnings to their parents, but this basically offsets the cost of raising them, so it isn’t really an incentive to have larger families, just the removal of a disincentive.

The strongest real incentive, other than increased status and cultural inertia, that I observe for large families is that the children are the parents’ retirement plan. The Amish don’t work at jobs that offer pensions or benefits. They are exempt from paying into, but also ineligible to receive, Social Security benefits. The Social Security exemption was granted on the basis that the Amish don’t need government payments to support them in old age, because the family and community will do that. And they do.

How does this work out in practice? First, the Amish don’t practice “retirement” the way most people think of it. They teach that work is honorable and every able-bodied man should work to support his family and to help those in need. So as long as a man is physically able to work, he’ll be employed and supporting himself and his wife. And Amish women move directly from the role of mother to the role of grandmother. It’s not at all uncommon, in fact, for a woman’s first grandchild to be born before her last child is born. So plenty of Amish children are an aunt or uncle at birth, and have a niece or nephew older than they are. Grandmothers are extremely involved in helping their daughters and daughters-in-law with childcare, so they don’t often have a big stretch of free time after their children grow up and move out. And besides that, there are still the significant household responsibilities to attend to.

As a couple gets older and perhaps less able to handle everything on their own, they often move to the home of one of their grown children. Typically not into the home directly, but into what’s called a “dody haus” (grandpa house) which might be a small detached house on the same property, or a separate wing of the larger house, like an in-law suite. Here they’re able to live independently, help care for the grandchildren next door, and still be nearby so their children and grandchildren can give any care they may need in old age. If the couple has an unmarried “old maid” daughter, she’ll typically still be living with them and will be the primary caregiver.

If someone doesn’t have children to care for them, the Amish community will find a way to care for them. Some more distant relative or maybe surviving siblings will step in to help. But the expectation and the rule is that your children and grandchildren will care for you after you’re no longer able to care for yourself. Finding yourself growing old without family is an unfortunate and unpleasant situation, regardless how much the community may try to fill that role. Just as throughout earlier stages of life, social functions and social status revolve around children and family, and anyone without them will be incomplete as a person, something of an inevitable outsider to the joys of life. The best insurance against a lonely and uncomfortable old age is a large family, among which there are certain to be sufficient resources to care for you. Many elderly Amish people die with well over a hundred grandchildren and great-grandchildren, and spend their later years constantly surrounded by children and young people who deeply appreciate and respect them. Being taught and shown that respect toward their own grandparents from a young age is a strong incentive to aspire to the same status one day.

I’m not sure exactly where this fits, but I should point out somewhere that the Amish have an absolutely zero tolerance policy toward divorce. There are no legitimate grounds for divorce whatsoever, and anyone who initiates a divorce will be excommunicated from the church and shunned. If an Amish person’s spouse initiates divorce proceedings, they won’t cooperate with those proceedings in any way. If the divorce happens through the legal system without their consent anyway, they can remain a church member in good standing only by staying celibate as long as their spouse remains alive. The only acceptable second marriage is in the case of the death of a spouse. In those cases, a quick remarriage is the rule among widows and widowers with young children, since raising a family is seen as a job for a married couple, not a single person.

It’s hard to say exactly how this stance against divorce influences marriage and fertility. But it certainly limits exposure to the idea of divorce as a “solution” to marriage difficulties, and incentivizes couples to work things out for their own life satisfaction. And it dramatically reduces the financial risks men face in the modern marriage system, where the potential to lose not only their family, but also a significant portion of their material wealth, raises strong disincentives to marriage. The physical realities of married life versus single life in a more low-tech environment probably discourage divorce, but the added threat of complete social and familial ostracization eliminate it almost entirely.

Conclusion

This article is my attempt to provide some insight into the Amish culture that might help us understand the factors causing their unusually high fertility rate. I’ve titled it as part one, because I plan to follow up with some of my personal opinions on how these insights relate to the broader society. I think a lot of the proposed causes of and solutions to the global demographic collapse are completely incorrect, and my opinion is based heavily on my observation of Amish culture. That will be the focus of part two of this article.

Feel free to comment and post questions. My biggest challenge in writing this article is the fact that I take my familiarity with Amish culture for granted to some degree, so I struggled to choose which points are relevant to understanding the culture for an outsider. I’m sure I skipped over plenty of important details that may leave readers feeling confused, so I’ll do my best to answer any questions you post, and update the article with pertinent information I missed.

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ເມື່ອປຽບທຽບກັບສິນຊັບອື່ນທີ່ມີການຄວບຄຸມ ເຊັ່ນ ສະກຸນເງິນທ້ອງຖິ່ນຫຼືທອງຄຳ ທີ່ເບິ່ງຄືວ່າມີຄວາມຜັນຜວນໜ້ອຍກວ່າ Bitcoin ນັ້ນ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຫມາຍຄວາມວ່າພວກມັນບໍ່ມີຄວາມຜັນຜວນ. ແຕ່ເປັນເພາະມີການຄວບຄຸມຈາກອົງການສູນກາງ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການສື່ສານຄວາມຄິດເຫັນຂອງຄົນໄປຮອດຕະຫຼາດບໍ່ແບບເວລາຈິງ.

ດັ່ງນັ້ນ ສິ່ງທີ່ເຮົາເຫັນແມ່ນການຊັກຊ້າ (delay) ໃນການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນທີ່ແທ້ຈິງອອກມາເທົ່ານັ້ນ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຄວາມໝັ້ນຄົງຂອງມູນຄ່າ.

ກົນໄກການຄວບຄຸມແລະຜົນກະທົບ:

ສະກຸນເງິນ: ທະນາຄານກາງສາມາດພິມເງິນ ປັບອັດຕາດອກເບີ້ຍ ແລະແຊກແຊງຕະຫຼາດ ເຮັດໃຫ້ລາຄາບໍ່ສະທ້ອນມູນຄ່າທີ່ແທ້ຈິງໃນທັນທີ.

ຫຼັກຊັບ: ມີລະບຽບການຫຼາຍຢ່າງ ເຊັ່ນ ການຢຸດການຊື້ຂາຍເມື່ອລາຄາປ່ຽນແປງຫຼາຍເກີນໄປ (circuit breakers) ທີ່ຂັດຂວາງການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນທີ່ແທ້ຈິງ.

ທອງຄຳ: ຖຶງແມ່ນຈະເປັນສິນຊັບທີ່ບໍ່ມີການຄວບຄຸມ ແຕ່ຕະຫຼາດທອງຄຳມີຂະໜາດໃຫຍ່ກວ່າ Bitcoin ຫຼາຍ ແລະມີການຄ້າແບບດັ້ງເດີມທີ່ຊ້າກວ່າ.

ບົດສະຫຼຸບ

ການປຽບທຽບຄວາມຜັນຜວນລະຫວ່າງ Bitcoin ແລະສິນຊັບອື່ນໆ ໂດຍໃຊ້ໄລຍະເວລາສັ້ນນັ້ນ ບໍ່ມີຄວາມສົມເຫດສົມຜົນປານໃດ ເພາະວ່າປັດໄຈເລື້ອງການຊັກຊ້າໃນການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນນີ້ແມ່ນສິ່ງສຳຄັນທີ່ສົ່ງຜົນຕໍ່ລາຄາທີ່ແທ້ຈິງ.

ສິ່ງທີ່ຄວນເຮັດແທ້ໆແມ່ນການນຳເອົາກອບເວລາທີ່ກວ້າງຂວາງກວ່າມາວິເຄາະ ເຊັ່ນ ເປັນປີຫຼືຫຼາຍປີ ແລ້ວຈຶ່ງປຽບທຽບ. ດ້ວຍວິທີນີ້ ເຮົາຈຶ່ງຈະເຫັນປະສິດທິຜົນແລະການດຳເນີນງານທີ່ແທ້ຈິງຂອງ Bitcoin ໄດ້ຢ່າງຈະແຈ້ງ

@ 65038d69:1fff8852

Apple held one of their regular events last week and announced the iPhone 16. The inevitable repeating questions ensued. Should you upgrade your phone? Is it time? Is it worth it? What about Android users? Should I switch to an iPhone? Should I switch to an Android? If you’re looking for a short answer: no. If you have an attention span longer than that of a ferret, there is some nuance to be had.

First let’s define “upgrading”. In this context I define it as buying a new phone before your current one has reached the end of its useful life. Your current phone is working just fine, there’s nothing wrong with it, but you buy a new one anyway.

There’s nothing morally or ethically wrong with upgrading, but practically it’s pointless. Phone cameras plateaued 10 years ago (around the time of the iPhone 6 series), and the rest of the hardware a few years after that. Aside from some edge cases, the current lines of phones will do the same things for you as a 10 year old design would. Look up some sample photos from an iPhone 6. Then look at similar photos taken with the iPhone 15 or 16. They’re functionally the same. “No, the new ones are better! You can tell when you zoom in 100x or get a wall-sized poster print!” Those are the edge cases I talked about. You’re posting fur baby updates for grandma on Facebook and low-effort thirst traps on Instagram. You don’t need 48MP.

With the launch of the iPhone X and Samsung S8 in 2017, we saw the removal of the physical home button and entrance into the current epoch of “plain rectangle with a touch screen”. Which is excellent, because you no longer have to spend hours agonizing over which phone to buy. Pick a screen size, pick your budget, and you’re done! You are the proud owner of a functioning plain rectangle that will continue to function until the manufacturer stops supplying security updates (typically 5 to 7 years).

To summarize, don’t bother replacing your phone unless it: a) dies, b) the battery dies and a replacement is 50% or more of the cost a new phone, or c) it’s no longer getting security updates.

Since this conversation was started by the iPhone launch that’s mostly what I’ve talked about, but this applies to mainstream Android phones as well. Samsung and Google promise 7 years of updates for their current gen lines. There’s no need to upgrade, only replace.

Lastly, if you’re on an Android, don’t bother switch to an iPhone. It’s in no way “better”, and the mental load of learning a different system will have you clawing at the walls of your padded cell. Same goes for the iPhone users; don’t bother switching to an Android. Either switch would be like trading in your perfectly good rust-bucket for a Toyota because you think you’d have to fix it less…wait…no…that’s a bad example…

@ 5ea46480:450da5bd

Decentralization refers to control/power, and relates to censorship resistance. That is it, it is not more complicated then that. Resilience is a function of redundancy; a centralized censored system can have a redundant set-up and therefor be resilient.

Take Bitcoin; the blockchain is a central database, it is resilient because it has many redundant copies among a lot of different nodes. The message (txs and blocks) propagation is decentralized due to existence of a p2p network among these nodes, making the data distribution censorship resistant (hello op_return debate). But onchain transactions themselves are NOT p2p, they require a middlemen (a miner) because it is a central database, as opposed to something like lightning which is p2p. Peer to Peer says something about relative architectural hierarchical position/relation. P2P provides censorship resistance because it entails equal power relations, provided becoming a peer is permissionless. What makes onchain transactions censorship resistant is that mining is permissionless, and involves this open power struggle/game where competition results in a power distribution among players, meaning (hopefully) decentralization. The fact users rely on these middlemen is mitigated by this decentralization on the one hand, and temper-proofing via cryptographic signatures on the other, resulting in what we call trustlessness (or trust minimization for the autists in the room); we only rely on a miner to perform a job (including your tx into a block), but we don’t trust the miner to perform the job correctly, this we can verify ourselves.

This leads us to Nostr, because that last part is exactly what Nostr does as well. It uses cryptography to get tamper-proof messaging, which then allows you to use middle-men in a trust minimized way. The result is decentralization because in general terms, any middle man is as good as any other (same as with miners), and becoming such a middleman is permissionless(somewhat, mostly); which in turn leads to censorship resistance. It also allows for resilience because you are free to make things as redundant as you'd like.

Ergo, the crux is putting the cryptography central, making it the starting point of the system; decentralization then becomes an option due to trust minimization. The difference between Bitcoin an Nostr, is that Bitcoin maintains a global state/central ledger and needs this PoW/Nakamoto consensus fanfare; Nostr rests itself with local perspectives on 'the network'.

The problem with the Fediverse, is that it does not provide trust minimization in relation to the middlemen. Sure, there are a lot different servers, but you rely on a particular one (and the idea you could switch never really seemed to have materialized in a meaningful way). It also fails in permisionlessness because you rely on the association between servers, i.e. federation, to have meaningful access to the rest of the network. In other words, it is more a requirement of association than freedom of association; you have the freedom to be excommunicated.

The problem with ATproto is that is basically does not solve this dynamic; it only complicates it by pulling apart the components; identity and data, distribution and perspective are now separated, and supposedly you don’t rely on any particular one of these sub-component providers in the stack; but you do rely on all these different sub-component providers in the stack to play nice with each other. And this ‘playing nice’ is just the same old ‘requirement of association’ and ‘freedom of excommunication’ that looms at the horizon.

Yes, splitting up the responsibilities of identity, hosting and indexing is what is required to safe us from the platform hellscape which at this stage takes care of all three. But as it turns out, it was not a matter cutting those up into various (on paper) interchangeable middlemen. All that is required is putting cryptographic keys in the hands of the user; the tamperproofing takes care of the rest, simply by trust minimizing the middlemen we use. All the sudden it does not matter which middlemen we use, and no one is required to play nice; we lost the requirement of association, and gained freedom of association, which was the purpose of censorship resistance and therefor decentralization, to begin with.