-

@ 0e05cb33:2082a99e
2025-05-01 02:10:11
At supper I asked Shannon Fraser whether he's decided to get a few pigs to fatten up.
-

@ c8adf82a:7265ee75
2025-05-01 02:09:35
I kind of like no deletion because it requires accountability, but that’s just me
-

@ cac0e432:8734082b
2025-05-01 02:08:47
It sounds too sexist. I think it's just greed, and it shows up more in women simply because the sample size is small. There aren’t many users on Nostr, and if there happen to be ten greedy women here, it gives the impression that all of them are like that.
-

@ 03612b0e:afd71216
2025-05-01 02:08:45
Miner centralization
-

@ a723805c:0342dc9c
2025-05-01 02:08:33
I appreciate Semisol for his perspectives like this.
nostr:note1z5h0vdshjvycy6wwp4u9n9g4368wkxjzd9yzddyfq4gvpv8uql5ss7xxqq
-

@ 3c559080:a053153e
2025-05-01 02:07:53
That's a solid deck pic
-

@ 03612b0e:afd71216
2025-05-01 02:07:46
Partner with nostr:npub1dd9znw7585wsam4d8p84ztdmtywwjsrayld6fzk4fvqdn5hpju4st5xe7p and do oblivious http
-

@ bfde2252:6c7b8dc2
2025-05-01 02:07:27
Did you have to fight the brown belt?
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 02:07:21
I'd drown here on the coast...
-

@ c8adf82a:7265ee75
2025-05-01 02:06:50
The skilled resist, the wise let go
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 02:06:27
You were on my mind and I'm hoping that you are doing well and able to process all the things. Sending hugs 🫂
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 02:05:16
Just give it a stern talking to and send it to its room.
-

@ f804a225:ee83379d
2025-05-01 02:05:15
It’s not supposed to
-

@ 9cb3545c:2ff47bca
2025-05-01 02:04:59
Quantum mechanics makes no fucking sense.
-

@ 12f5b366:ca77ddd4
2025-05-01 02:04:26
How that works? How does an app earns that legend?
-

@ 9267545d:d4e3688a
2025-05-01 02:03:50
About time! I'm glad you guys at connected
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 02:03:22
Dude 🥰
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 02:02:26
This ☝️ my girl knows what's up 💜
-

@ f804a225:ee83379d
2025-05-01 02:01:48
🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂 🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂🫂
-

@ 3dda4500:5776f2db
2025-05-01 02:01:34
And pray the bear is not on cocaine
nostr:nevent1qqsvkgyrt0mztyvtmgafg3v2lrxhtanxt5mv6xv056my4frlerljg6sppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qgsvtq400r0lgsnspmzeugtcv5e2wp6vqzlgk7c74jvfh0mzdxqxnnqrqsqqqqqpxxu47g
-

@ 7ed7d5c3:6927e200
2025-05-01 02:01:13
Data not collected by the app, but perhaps user activity is logged on their caching server, since the app doesn't work without it.
It's essentially a platform.
-

@ f804a225:ee83379d
2025-05-01 02:00:59
nostr:npub12r0yjt8723ey2r035qtklhmdj90f0j6an7xnan8005jl7z5gw80qat9qrx ?
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 02:00:57
🫂🫂
-

@ f839fb67:5c930939
2025-05-01 02:00:40
#AskNostr
nostr:nevent1qqs2334p7lrssa7n6lxcgg03t8wcs0vc0ycq4tg5l0qu3vgv69qeyycpzdmhxue69uhhwmm59e6hg7r09ehkuef0qgs0sw0mvu29nznjx0gfm02z47pve9up6ra22ar57xzp47gttjfsjwgrqsqqqqqpvpyxxe
-

@ f804a225:ee83379d
2025-05-01 02:00:31
Dude 🙏🏻✌🏻
-

@ bfde2252:6c7b8dc2
2025-05-01 02:00:06
More like a few apps using their algos.
-

@ 32e18276:5c68e245
2025-05-01 02:00:04
So this is a lie ?
https://i.nostr.build/MfU5nkIkqakFC2bC.jpg
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:59:42
I know.
Dude 😵
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:59:14
👀 I only use Amethyst. I don't have the abs for primal.
-

@ 0e05cb33:2082a99e
2025-05-01 01:59:07
If I don't like someone, I'd simplly eliminate from my way of living.
-

@ d8f38b89:ccf72848
2025-05-01 01:59:03
My girl don't use no Primal shitcoin. GrapheneOS, Amber, Citrine, and Amethyst. 💪💪💪
-

@ aade47fd:281e8e4f
2025-05-01 01:59:01
Я спал с распахнутым окном. Утром на подоконник села птичка, и громко крикнула "GM!" (на птичьем). Утро Белоснежки.
-

@ bfde2252:6c7b8dc2
2025-05-01 01:58:32
But that could mean one thing... John is Trump's alt. 👀
-

@ 61bf790b:fe18b062
2025-05-01 01:58:09
58k gang vs 83 bytes gang
Are they the same?
-

@ f804a225:ee83379d
2025-05-01 01:57:40
WHAT
DUDE
-

@ e034d654:ca919814
2025-05-01 01:57:33
I know I can spin up a million npuns.
But one is tard enough.
-

@ 61bf790b:fe18b062
2025-05-01 01:57:15
58k gang vs 83 bytes gang
-

@ 3dda4500:5776f2db
2025-05-01 01:56:43
It's called the economics of homemaking, which women tend to do more of.
-

@ c6b55464:357bc26a
2025-05-01 01:56:07
"John McAfee's Resurrection" is out now.
https://x.com/officialmcafee/status/1917637723755798569?s=46
-

@ 604e96e0:20279eb2
2025-05-01 01:55:58
It’s hilarious how nostr:npub19mun7qwdyjf7qs3456u8kyxncjn5u2n7klpu4utgy68k4aenzj6synjnft made everyone on dedbird lose their minds just cause he said SQL sucks 😂
-

@ adc14fa3:9fb535e1
2025-05-01 01:55:46
Haha. The love will be reciprocated because men / husbands love this! Well played
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:55:40
Watching the artists do this kind of body art blows my mind. There was a netflix series back in the day and aside from the manufactured drama it was really good.
nostr:nevent1qqsfs0fl8gyc9s5tehspqpa2exuchv7j6nu88v29vfpxzzw0rs7cpmgpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezumt0d5hsygz8l975uznypj9fv0fl5uwe7zn24k2c47jstlhaahtd2200gy3w7vpsgqqqqqqsyrdvce
-

@ 18905d0a:0b229b08
2025-05-01 01:55:35
This 👇🏾
https://media1.tenor.com/m/eKwpSVifrCIAAAAC/donald-trump-youre-fired.gif
-

@ d8f38b89:ccf72848
2025-05-01 01:53:30
Yep, gotta keep the backup current if you use that feature, though. There's no "are you sure" prompt. 😂
-

@ aade47fd:281e8e4f
2025-05-01 01:53:28
Учусь не тонуть долго :)
Сейчас я могу переплыть кролем (почти) 25 метров. Хочу уметь плавать хотя бы 30 минут нон-стоп.
-

@ 03612b0e:afd71216
2025-05-01 01:52:55
Hmm my computer lied to me. Looks fine on phone. Wtf
-

@ 1afe0c74:6808e36d
2025-05-01 01:52:23
This is a John Adams quote that I’m simply modernizing
-

@ 03612b0e:afd71216
2025-05-01 01:51:48
Oh. Its still showing an error right now though...
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:51:45
🫂💜
-

@ e034d654:ca919814
2025-05-01 01:50:04
https://i.nostr.build/XzgPQwcKnSVjid3h.gif
-

@ 03612b0e:afd71216
2025-05-01 01:49:30
It looks fine but maybe you need to point your "www" to "tanel.org" in your dns records? or maybe youre having the issue due to the 308 Permanent Redirect on tanel.org? Just throwing stuff to see what sticks. The error in nostrudel says "Unable to find DNS Identity in nostr.json file", is that just saying that it doesnt see "_" (which is definitely there)?
NIP-05 says "The /.well-known/nostr.json endpoint MUST NOT return any HTTP redirects." and yours does not do that except for the root path.
-

@ adc14fa3:9fb535e1
2025-05-01 01:48:47
It’s a grind here for sure. Keep up the engagement and work brother. It pays off here. Literally
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:48:20
Duuuuude
Y'all have fun without us tonight. We're out adulting in the meatspace.
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:47:26
🙀
-

@ adc14fa3:9fb535e1
2025-05-01 01:47:18
Yes, for sure
-

@ f804a225:ee83379d
2025-05-01 01:46:50
DUDE
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:46:50
Thanks Rand 😆💜
-

@ 9358c676:9f2912fc
2025-05-01 01:45:58
58k = k85
-

@ bfde2252:6c7b8dc2
2025-05-01 01:45:20
How do you get terminated as an intern?
-

@ a6223de3:6f46025b
2025-05-01 01:45:06
Lol the tardiest
-

@ 32e18276:5c68e245
2025-05-01 01:44:37
It’s shit like this why i’m so hesitant to do auth + nip50 searches on remote relays. Local search works well enough for most cases (but its not perfect)
-

@ e034d654:ca919814
2025-05-01 01:44:25
58k gang is just folk without 58,000 sats Yet.
Gfy.
-

@ adc14fa3:9fb535e1
2025-05-01 01:43:16
There are many who are here for all those same reasons and still have the same concerns that you pointed out; genuinely
-

@ ff2e4123:cacb9ecd
2025-05-01 01:42:31
🫂
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:41:17
He deserved it...every time 😂
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:40:53
Always the first choice lol.
-

@ ff2e4123:cacb9ecd
2025-05-01 01:40:44
Scammers gonna scam
-

@ adc14fa3:9fb535e1
2025-05-01 01:40:32
Nostr and Bitcoin are alike….
most people don’t get it until they need it. Then suddenly, it’s obvious. The time is coming
-

@ 9358c676:9f2912fc
2025-05-01 01:40:12
Amazing work, congratulations nostr:nprofile1qqsdv8emcke7k3qqaldwv956tstu40ejg663gdsaayuuujs6pknw7jspp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqprpmhxue69uhhqun9d45h2mfwwpexjmtpdshxuet500ww4r and team ⚡
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:39:02
Dude
-

@ c5cfda98:5a21e778
2025-05-01 01:38:59
Don’t forget to check out Coolr Ephemeral chat. I won’t be around tonight, but hopefully some people will be.
More improvements coming tomorrow!
- shareable channel links
- IRC like commands
- …
https://coolr.chat
-

@ cac0e432:8734082b
2025-05-01 01:37:37
Если есть то немногое, по чему я скучаю, покинув ДВ, — то это не крабы, икра, рыба и прочее, что я и там-то в глаза не видел, а пянсе. Это "паровой пирожок с мясной и капустной начинкой" — очень простое блюдо. На ДВ оно везде вкусное, даже когда невкусное. Уехав с ДВ, думаете я это пянсе потерял? Нет, оно есть, везде продаётся — и везде невкусно. Как так? Непонятно.
-

@ 32e18276:5c68e245
2025-05-01 01:37:14
Great full stack feature: monitoring every advanced search by pubkey
nostr:nevent1qqspsevyzegum72zu9hlqdsm75u6hht7ej7jmnaudjym52qwh37xnacpzamhxue69uhkuenyvghxummnwa5x2un99e3k7mgpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqpz4mhxue69uhks6tnwshxummnw3ezumrpdejqzyrhwden5te0dehhxarj9ekxzmnyvxplqr
-

@ 6a02b7d5:3a13d02a
2025-05-01 01:36:58
Take care Amine, ✌️💜⚡🫂
-

@ 77ce56f8:362f6ca7
2025-05-01 01:36:49
Been this way for the 3yrs I've been here...
Nothing that's actually groundbreaking for nostr or those not on nostr has been done since nostr was created.
"Hey try out this new social. You could make money posting memes."
"Yeah sounds great. How do I get started?"
"Just install these 7 apps. You'll need 4 client apps because you might not like just the one I point out, then youll need 2 wallet apps incase one goes down, and 1 more app to manage your nostr private key, because I don't think you can do it safely yourself."
"Yeah, no. But you have fun."
🤣
-

@ adc14fa3:9fb535e1
2025-05-01 01:36:36
Amazing view… no noise, Pura Vida
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:36:30
I feel like it's the only way to handle him 🤷♀️😂
-

@ c5b6340b:994d51f3
2025-05-01 01:36:23
The fat is the best part. If you cook all the fat, it's useless. Unless you're making bacon bits or something.
-

@ e034d654:ca919814
2025-05-01 01:36:22
My current playthrough of Oblivion Remaster be like
nostr:nevent1qqsy053et9jrp349vtft0kr8ef6cm9f2x7spurdd2drzv7k04tzen5qpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsyg8ghj0sqj2x8qev3hxv9p37yul5tpez3s0xl723u6lyduyhmdxxecpsgqqqqqqsn4z93k
-

@ d2841371:02c90a2b
2025-05-01 01:36:08
Is every gd thing I do in life tracked?!
-

@ adc14fa3:9fb535e1
2025-05-01 01:35:31
Just like Bitcoin…most people don’t get it until they need it. Then suddenly, it’s obvious. Nostr’s time is coming.
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:35:15
Needle felting is so underappreciated 💜
nostr:nevent1qqs0dvy7wyk9r506rd79qvhnrz5z7ktj0x6ca3my8403q0vxpcr32xcpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezumt0d5hsygz8l975uznypj9fv0fl5uwe7zn24k2c47jstlhaahtd2200gy3w7vpsgqqqqqqsm2afvq
-

@ 418a17eb:b64b2b3a
2025-05-01 01:34:44
This will my last note here. I enjoyed being here, a lot of meaningful conversations. I learned a lot along the way, about privacy, trust, bitcoin, and Nostr.
Who knows maybe I will come back under another npub in the future.
Take care and stay beautiful, Nostr 💜
-

@ adc14fa3:9fb535e1
2025-05-01 01:34:03
Nostr is YOUR space to craft your persona how YOU want. There’s space for everyone, and that is FREEDOM.
This isn’t social media. It’s a network of people who actually want to connect.
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:33:35
Never underestimate grabbing a handful of hair and yanking 😂. My mom still talks about my brother screaming because I'd jump on his back and grab his hair and yank his head back, this was as a 4-5 year old.
-

@ eebf4cb5:d40936bc
2025-05-01 01:32:49
what a joke of a human being
https://m.primal.net/Qiyb.jpg
-

@ d981591e:f7c0ae37
2025-05-01 01:32:22
Thanks! Weird, I wonder why it was wrong
-

@ 1bc70a01:24f6a411
2025-05-01 01:31:40
https://openrouter.ai/inception/mercury-coder-small-beta
-

@ d4bad8c2:b57136de
2025-05-01 01:31:23
glad i don't use primal
-

@ ff2e4123:cacb9ecd
2025-05-01 01:30:57
4-5
-

@ 1afe0c74:6808e36d
2025-05-01 01:30:13
I must study politics, A.I. and monetary theory that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and Philosophy.
-

@ ba18b654:48c19046
2025-05-01 01:29:23
The bartender said it started out as being brewed just for Gordon Ramsay's restaurants, but he pissed them off and they said nah bro eat a dick we're selling this shit, or something similar... I guess the bars can't get a keg but they can get bottles and cans. If you're friendly with one, maybe ask about it.
-

@ 5eb3fabe:35a033cd
2025-05-01 01:29:13
Nice 😊
-

@ e034d654:ca919814
2025-05-01 01:29:13
I think Bitkey might finally get my friend off of Exodus wallet.
I wish it weren't so limited in terms of software compatibility...
But it's better then fucking Exodus shitcoin wallet.
-

@ 6d088b65:b6a8d5e9
2025-05-01 01:29:01
nostr:nprofile1qqsga6szazgjppvk92fsk297a5ng82vgv9x7ngeew59wpvcxrckxmvgpr4mhxue69uhkymmnw3ezucnfw33k76tww3ux76m09e3k7mf0qy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qg4waehxw309ahx7um5wghx77r5wghxgetk9upldf9c你对此新闻评论有何评价?如果美国跟中国进行关税谈判,中国要付出哪些代价?做哪些利益让渡?如果不谈判,完全脱钩,对中美两国甚至全球经济的影响有哪些?对哪个国家影响最大?中国会不会经济崩溃?
-

@ 5eb3fabe:35a033cd
2025-05-01 01:28:59
You never know! Why not us?
-

@ b692fce3:dde5421f
2025-05-01 01:27:47
You are probably right.
The thing I dislike most about Nostr is this cycle:
1) Nostr developer creates something flashy
2) Everyone on Nostr celebrates. This will bring in more users from other platforms they say
3) Development on the new thing rapidly slows down
4) The new thing is left broken and forgotten
5) goto 1
This may only be my perception. I simply don't want to invest the time to try out the new thing which might quickly become the forgotten thing.
-

@ 7c765d40:bd121d84
2025-05-01 01:27:39
nostr:nprofile1qqsz35a3cnq6u8m0v4kr4skehshywzcjvelzk5du4wmx8e0r3ypccrqppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0ht83wq 👑
-

@ 77ce56f8:362f6ca7
2025-05-01 01:27:00
Laws, will always govern anything you build.
But, keep clapping for government because it's all good for bitcoin as long as NGU.
🤣🤢
-

@ 6d088b65:b6a8d5e9
2025-05-01 01:26:55
## 美方通过多渠道主动与中方接触,希望就关税问题进行谈判
玉渊谭天
2025-5-101:05北京资深政经记者
谭主从消息人士处获悉,近一段时间,美方通过多种渠道主动与中方接触,希望与中方就关税问题进行谈判。
近期,美国总统特朗普和其经贸团队频频放风,称美国正在与中国进行经贸谈判。
国际经贸谈判专家跟谭主分析,美国越是频繁释放消息,就越显现出其急于推动谈判的心理。
关于谈,商务部发言人此前有过回应:
如果美方真想解决问题,就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音,彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施,通过平等对话找到解决分歧的办法。
从谈判的角度来讲,目前,美国一定是更着急的那一方。
当前,特朗普政府面临多重压力,首先就是经济压力。
美国商务部4月30日公布的最新数据显示,2025年第一季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)环比按年率计算萎缩0.3%。
过去两年,美国GDP增速基本略高于2%,但特朗普政府的关税政策已经开始冲击美国经济。
这不是美国第一个出现下跌的经济指标,通过对特朗普政府宣布加征所谓“对等”关税以来的外媒报道进行分析,谭主发现,过去不到一个月的时间,“跌”这个词频频出现:
||4月8日,美国股市高开低走,三大指数收盘集体下跌。
||4月16日,美国股市当日收盘大幅下跌。
||4月21日,美国股市下跌,美元汇率跌至近三年低点,投资者对美国经济前景感到担忧。
有意思的是,就在市场“跌跌不休”的同时,特朗普政府也在同步上演着另一出“大戏”。
4月9日,也就是美股暴跌后没几天,特朗普政府突然来了个政策“急转弯”:宣布对大部分国家暂缓90天实施所谓“对等”关税。
明眼人都能看出来,这背后是经济压力、市场动荡和国际反制的重重考量。
紧接着,特朗普开始了他的“话术表演”。
4月17日,特朗普第一次提到在和中国讨论关税协议,而前一天,美股三大股指全线下跌。
从这天起,特朗普开始频繁地、拐弯抹角地暗示:我们和中国在联系。
但市场并未买账,特朗普这边“创造事实”,那边美股该跌还是跌,一路探底。直到4月21日,美股跌到了谷底,美元也疲软不堪。
这个时候,光靠“模糊表述”显然已经不够用了。于是,特朗普开始明确表示,不仅要“非常友好地与中国谈”,还要“大幅降低”对华关税,希望能够达成贸易协议。一直到4月25日,特朗普连续四天基本每天都会释放一次中美“正在联系”或者“已经联系”的信息。
这话一出,效果立竿见影。美股应声上涨,美元也开始走强。
眼看这种套路有用,特朗普和他的经贸团队就开始“硬蹭”中国,短短10天之内,至少就说了11次“在和中国联系”。
在美国没有实质性举动前,中方没必要和美方谈。但是美国如果希望同中国接触,现阶段对中国来说也没有坏处,中方需要观察甚至逼出美方的真实意图,掌握谈和打的主动权。
除了经济上的压力,在舆论上,特朗普政府的压力也很大。
特朗普上台以来,有关关税话题的境外社交媒体讨论超过了2000万条。
2月1日美国加征关税时,美国老百姓怀疑和焦虑的态度约占65%。而到了四月初,对关税反对的声音比例直接升到了80%左右。
这是为什么?
首先,关税反噬了美国制造业。
中国目前已对7类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制。彭博社报道指出,“美国国内目前对这7类中重稀土进行精炼的能力为零。”
而此类稀土例如镝、钇、钆等都是军工武器所需要的,据分析,目前美国的稀土储备只能满足几个月而不是几年的需求,美国的军工项目将受到严重影响。
从对外贸易来看,美国更是自绝于全球市场之外。
通过开源平台可以看到,与上海港一片繁忙的景象不同,美国最大、最繁忙集装箱港口洛杉矶港显得十分冷清。
||这是4月30日Marine Traffic平台上上海港和洛杉矶港的船舶对比
该港执行董事吉恩·塞罗卡表示,由于美国关税政策的影响,洛杉矶港下周入境货运量预计将比去年同期下跌超过35%。
但在大洋彼岸的中国宁波舟山港老塘山作业区,4月有大概40艘巴西大豆船靠岸,相比于去年同期的27艘次,同比增加了约48%。
而目前,谭主从该港口独家了解到,进口的美国大豆数量已经锐减。根据联合国数据,2024年美国出口大豆中51.7%都销往中国,中国是美国大豆的最大客户。
与此同时,不止大豆,猪肉等美国对华出口农产品都受到很大的影响。
从美国国内的供应链来看,失去中国制造的美国家庭,很有可能会陷入“家徒四壁”的窘境。
前不久《纽约时报》发布了一则数据可视化报道,从厕所到卧室,详细列举出了美国家庭中每一类商品从中国进口的比例,烤面包机、雨伞、闹钟等商品从中国进口的占比都超过了95%。
||美媒用一篇可视化报道,展现一个普通美国家庭对中国进口产品的依赖比例程度。灰色表示这一品类从中国进口率为0—20%,绿色为20%—40%,黄色为40%—60%,橙色为60%—80%,红色为80%—100%。
也就是说,一旦这些商品没法顺利从中国进口,美国民众将面临在国内几乎断供的窘境。
在这种情况下,特朗普政府希望尽快在关税中找到突破口,重新营造“美国赢了”的叙事。
于是,在与他国的谈判中,特朗普政府还是想借中国说事。
最近一段时间,美国正在逐步推进跟印度、日本和韩国的谈判。
但是,谈判进度却并不如美国所愿。
在同日本的首轮谈判后,日本并没有答应美国的任何一项要求,双方仅仅计划了接下来的谈判安排。
实际上,在派经济再生大臣赴美谈判前,日本首相石破茂就提到“不准备作重大让步”。首轮谈判后,石破茂又提到,“日本并不打算唯命是从地按照美方要求承担更多负担。”
跟韩国的谈判也是类似的情形。尽管美国财长贝森特称美韩将很快达成谅解协议,但韩国产业通商资源部官员回应,在6月3日韩国总统选举前双方不可能敲定协议。
在多数国家都保持观望的情况下,特朗普频繁释放在同中国谈判的消息,还有一重重要的意图。
国际经贸谈判专家跟谭主分析:
首个与美国达成协议的国家,会给后续谈判提供重要参考。其他国家都会根据首个协议,来判断哪些方面存在与美国博弈和谈判的空间。中国是被加征所谓“对等”关税最高的国家,如果连中国都要作出巨大的让步,主动去找美国谈判,那对其他国家而言,能够争取的空间就非常有限了。
也就是说,通过释放中方急于找美国谈判的信息,特朗普试图给其他谈判对手制造时间压力,迫使其出于这样的压力,急于与美国达成谈判结果,从而向美方让渡更多利益。
通过回溯特朗普过往的多次发言和传记,谭主发现,这都属于他的一种交易策略。
从谈判的角度来说,特朗普运用的是“战略不确定”策略。
说白了,就是故意不按常理出牌。特朗普团队认为,“确定性”在谈判桌上反而是个阻碍。如果对手搞不懂你的逻辑,就得花费大量时间和精力去分析、去判断,信息处理成本大大增加,一不小心,就可能掉进“误判”的坑里。
用这种方式,扰乱对手的阵脚,增加对手的焦虑,最终迫使对手在信息不对称的情况下作出让步。
【谈判分析】
但实际上,洞穿美国的谈判心理,就会发现,在接触方面,我们不是理亏的一方,也不应该藏着掖着,我们很坦然。
对于特朗普所谓的“战略不确定”,其实也没有什么好迷惑的。有“不确定”,那我们就消除“不确定”——美方如果想和中方进行接触,中方就利用这些接触意图,逼出其真实的意图,更好地掌握主动权。
这种谈判和博弈,讲历史,5000年文明积累了太多智慧与经历,讲实操,对美斗争,我们也有的是经验和策略。
说到底,还是那句话:
谈,大门敞开,打,奉陪到底。
这是中方的底气,也是中方的定力。
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