Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up

We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time

Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up

We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time

Aliquam eu turpis sed enim ultricies scelerisque\ Duis posuere congue faucibus

Praesent pretium orci ante, et faucibus lectus euismod a

Let me point out to you that freedom is not something that anybody can be given; freedom is something people take and people are as free as they want to be.

James Baldwin

The lack of job opportunities is a real issue affecting millions of people worldwide. Underemployment and unemployment has been affecting individuals and communities in general.

CAUSES OF JOB SCARCITY

1. TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS: artifical intelligence Ai has taken over the job opportunities in the world today, making some jobs unavailable.

2. ECONOMIC PROBLEMS: the of lack of money can lead to reduced hiring and open jobs.

3.SKILL MISMATCH: the lack of experience and skill can make it hard for job seekers to get a job.

CONSEQUENCES OF LACK OF JOBS

1.SKILL DEGRADATION: prolonged scarcity of jobs can result in skill degradation and increase in unemployment.

1. FINANCIAL HARDSHIP:the lack of job opportunities can lead to stress, financial difficulties and many more terrible things.

2. SOCIAL ISOLATION: joblessness can cause or lead to decreased self esteem and social isolation.

SOLUTIONS

1.ENTREPRENEURSHIP :by encouraging entrepreneurship and also supporting start- ups can help lead to a new job opportunities.

2.JOB CREATION: the government organizations should implement programs and policies to stimulate job creation.

1. SOCIAL SUPPORT:by creating social support and resources can help individuals to cope with unemployment and help employability.

2. UPSKILLING AND RESKILLING:the government and people should invest in educational aspect and training programs to help job seekers get a relevant job.

IN CONCLUSION lack of job opportunities is an issue requiring attention in every aspect approach. By understanding the causes and consequences we can work towards creating more jobs in the society and support those who are unemployed.

Autor: Alexa Rodrian. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.

Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.

„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt.

Die Sängerin Alexa Rodrian erlebte bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises einen solchen Moment der Desillusion. Es war der Auftritt des Liedermachers Wolf Biermann. Hören Sie hierzu Alexa Rodrians Text „Wolf Biermann und sein falscher Friede“.

Hier zum Nachhören:

https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/wolf-biermann-und-sein-falscher-friede-von-alexa-rodrian

Dieser Beitrag erschien zuerst auf Radio München.

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Ukraine is reportedly about to make history by becoming the first country in Europe to have a national bitcoin reserve, a move aimed at strengthening its economy during the war with Russia.

The plan is still in its early stages and Binance, the world’s largest digital asset exchange, is involved.

According to Incrypted, a Ukrainian digital asset news outlet, Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak, First Deputy Chairman of the Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Committee, confirmed that the draft law is almost ready and will be submitted to the parliament soon.

“We will soon submit a draft law from the industry allowing the creation of crypto reserves,” Zheleznyak told Incrypted.

Earlier discussions mentioned a broader “crypto reserve” but the current plan is focused on bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. If approved, the law will allow the National Bank of Ukraine to hold bitcoin as part of the country’s official reserves.

Since the war with Russia started, Ukraine has become one of the most bitcoin-friendly countries in the world.

In 2022 and 2023 Ukraine raised over $100 million in digital asset donations for defense and humanitarian purposes. A report from Chainalysis ranked the country among the top 10 countries for bitcoin adoption globally.

A rather vague and unconfirmed report by BitcoinTreasuries.net states that “holdings of public officials” currently stand at 46,351 BTC.

Ukraine bitcoin holdings as reported by BitcoinTreasuries

Supporters of the bitcoin reserve say it will help Ukraine protect its economy from war-related instability, inflation and currency depreciation.

By going digital, the government is looking for modern tools to strengthen its financial system in uncertain times. This is not just about storing bitcoin, it’s about establishing clear laws for digital assets ownership, management and use.

Binance is playing an advisory role in the project. The company has worked with Ukraine on digital asset education and regulations in the past and is now helping to shape the legal framework for the bitcoin reserve.

Kirill Khomyakov, Binance’s regional head for Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Africa, confirmed the company’s support, but warned it won’t be fast or easy.

“The creation of such a reserve will require significant changes in legislation,” Khomyakov said. “Another positive aspect is that this initiative will likely lead to greater clarity in the regulation of crypto assets in Ukraine.”

Despite the support from some officials, there are legal hurdles. Ukrainian laws don’t allow bitcoin to be in the official reserves. So the government needs to pass new laws for it to happen.

Efforts to legalize bitcoin in general have been going on for years. In 2021, a draft law on virtual assets was approved by Finance Committee but was withdrawn after the President’s Office and financial regulators objected.

Up to now, over 80 amendments have been proposed, showing how complicated the process is.

The Ministry of Digital Transformation is leading a larger reform that could introduce rules for digital asset exchanges, tax laws and anti-money laundering standards in the country.

Ukraine isn’t alone in considering bitcoin as a national reserve asset. In March 2025, the U.S. announced its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using BTC seized in criminal cases.

Selfishness as Bitcoin’s Engine

Bitcoin, created by Satoshi Nakamoto, operates on a clear mechanism: miners use computational power to solve complex mathematical puzzles, verifying transactions on the network. In return, they earn rewards in Bitcoin. This is pure self-interest—miners want to maximize their profits. But while pursuing personal gain, they inadvertently maintain the entire system. Each new block added to the blockchain makes the network more stable and resilient against attacks. The more miners join, the more decentralized the system becomes, rendering it nearly impossible to manipulate.

This mechanism is brilliant because it taps into human nature—the desire for personal gain—to create something greater. Bitcoin doesn’t rely on altruism or good intentions. It relies on rational self-interest, which drives individuals to act in their own favor, ultimately benefiting the entire community.

The World Works the Same Way

This concept isn’t unique to Bitcoin. The world is full of examples where personal interest leads to collective progress. When an entrepreneur creates a new product, they do so to make money, but in the process, they create jobs, advance technology, and improve people’s lives. When a scientist works on a breakthrough, they may be driven by fame or financial reward, but the result is often a discovery that changes the world. Even in everyday life, when we buy products or services for our own convenience, we support the economy and encourage innovation.

Of course, self-interest doesn’t always lead to positive outcomes. Technologies created with good intentions can be misused—for example, in wars or for fraud. But even these negative aspects don’t halt progress. Competition and the drive for survival push humanity to find solutions, learn from mistakes, and keep moving forward. This is the cycle of development: individual self-interest fuels innovations that make the world more technological and connected.

Nature and Bitcoin: The DNA Parallel

To understand this mechanism, let’s look to nature. Consider the cells in a living organism. Each cell operates independently, following the instructions encoded in its DNA—a code that dictates its actions. The cell doesn’t “know” about the entire body, nor does it care. It simply strives for its own survival, performing its functions. But when billions of cells work together, following this code, they create something greater—a living organism.

Bitcoin is like the DNA of a decentralized system. Each miner is like a cell, following the “instructions” of the protocol to survive (profit). They don’t think about the entire network, only their own reward. But when all miners act together, they create something bigger—a global, secure, and resilient financial system. This is the beauty of decentralization: everyone acts for themselves, but the result is collective.

Selfishness and Humanity

Humans are no different from cells. Each of us wants to thrive—to have security, comfort, and success. But in pursuing these goals, we contribute to society. A teacher educates because they want to earn a living, but they shape future generations. An engineer builds a bridge because it’s their job, but it facilitates transportation for millions. Even in our personal lives, when we care for our families, we strengthen the social bonds that make society stronger.

Of course, there are exceptions—people who act solely for personal gain without regard for consequences. But even these outliers don’t change the bigger picture. Selfishness, when channeled correctly, is a driver of progress. Bitcoin is proof of this—a technology that turns personal interest into global innovation.

Bitcoin is more than just a cryptocurrency; it’s a mirror of human nature and the way the world works. Its design harnesses selfishness to create something sustainable and valuable. Just like cells in a body or people in society, Bitcoin miners work for themselves but contribute to something greater. It’s a reminder that even in our pursuit of personal gain, we can make the world a better place—as long as we follow the right “code.”

The other day, I had the privilege of sitting down with one of my favorite living artists. Our conversation was so captivating that I felt compelled to share it. I’m leaving his name out for privacy.

Since our last meeting, I’d watched a documentary about his life, one he’d helped create. I told him how much I admired his openness in it. There’s something strange about knowing intimate details of someone’s life when they know so little about yours—it’s almost like I knew him too well for the kind of relationship we have.

He paused, then said quietly, with a shy grin, that watching the documentary made him realize how “odd and eccentric” he is. I laughed and told him he’s probably the sanest person I know. Because he’s lived fully, chasing love, passion, and purpose with hardly any regrets. He’s truly lived.

Today, I turn 44, and I’ll admit I’m a bit eccentric myself. I think I came into the world this way. I’ve made mistakes along the way, but I carry few regrets. Every misstep taught me something. And as I age, I’m not interested in blending in with the world—I’ll probably just lean further into my own brand of “weird.” I want to live life to the brim. The older I get, the more I see that the “normal” folks often seem less grounded than the eccentric artists who dare to live boldly. Life’s too short to just exist, actually live.

I’m not saying to be strange just for the sake of it. But I’ve seen what the crowd celebrates, and I’m not impressed. Forge your own path, even if it feels lonely or unpopular at times.

It’s easy to scroll through the news and feel discouraged. But actually, this is one of the most incredible times to be alive! I wake up every day grateful to be here, now. The future is bursting with possibility—I can feel it.

So, to my fellow weirdos on nostr: stay bold. Keep dreaming, keep pushing, no matter what’s trending. Stay wild enough to believe in a free internet for all. Freedom is radical—hold it tight. Live with the soul of an artist and the grit of a fighter. Thanks for inspiring me and so many others to keep hoping. Thank you all for making the last year of my life so special.

Wirtschaftswunder werden oft als mysteriöse, unvorhersehbare Phänomene dargestellt – als wären sie glückliche Zufälle oder das Ergebnis genialer Planungen. Bei näherer Betrachtung offenbart sich jedoch ein grundlegendes Muster: Diese vermeintlichen "Wunder" sind keine übernatürlichen Ereignisse, sondern das natürliche Ergebnis wirtschaftlicher Freiheit. Die Erfolgsgeschichten verschiedener Länder bestätigen diese These und zeigen, dass Wohlstand entsteht, wenn Menschen die Freiheit haben, zu handeln, zu produzieren und zu innovieren.

Das deutsche Wirtschaftswunder

Nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg lag Deutschland in Trümmern. Die Industrieproduktion war auf ein Viertel des Vorkriegsniveaus gesunken, und Millionen Menschen lebten in Armut. Doch innerhalb weniger Jahre erlebte Westdeutschland einen beispiellosen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung, der als "Wirtschaftswunder" in die Geschichte einging.

Der Wandel begann mit Ludwig Erhards mutiger Währungsreform und Preisfreigabe im Jahr 1948. Erhard, damals Direktor der Wirtschaftsverwaltung, schaffte Preiskontrollen ab und führte die Deutsche Mark ein. Diese Maßnahmen wurden von Besatzungsmächten und deutschen Sozialisten skeptisch betrachtet und waren zunächst unpopulär. Doch die Ergebnisse sprachen für sich: Über Nacht füllten sich die Ladenregale wieder, und die Schwarzmärkte verschwanden.

Das Kernprinzip war einfach: Erhard gab den Menschen ihre wirtschaftliche Freiheit zurück. Er schuf einen stabilen Rechtsrahmen, reduzierte staatliche Eingriffe und förderte den freien Wettbewerb. Die Sozialisten bekämpften diese Entwicklung von Anfang an, deuteten diese jedoch im Nachhinein als “soziale Marktwirtschaft” um, diese Lüge verbreiten sie noch heute sehr erfolgreich.

Die freie Marktwirtschaft erlaubte es den Deutschen, ihre unternehmerischen Fähigkeiten zu entfalten und ihre zerstörte Wirtschaft wieder aufzubauen.\ Das Ergebnis: Zwischen 1950 und 1960 wuchs das westdeutsche BIP um mehr als 8% jährlich. Die Arbeitslosigkeit sank von 11% auf unter 1%, und Deutschland wurde zu einer der führenden Exportnationen der Welt. Was als "Wunder" bezeichnet wurde, war tatsächlich die natürliche Konsequenz wiederhergestellter wirtschaftlicher Freiheit.

Chiles wirtschaftliche Transformation

Chile bietet ein weiteres eindrucksvolles Beispiel. In den frühen 1970er Jahren litt das Land unter einer Hyperinflation von 700%, einem schrumpfenden BIP und zunehmender Armut. Die Transformation begann in den späten 1970er Jahren mit tiefgreifenden Wirtschaftsreformen.

Die chilenische Regierung privatisierte Staatsunternehmen, öffnete Märkte für internationalen Handel, schuf ein stabiles Finanzsystem und führte ein innovatives Rentensystem ein. Während andere lateinamerikanische Länder mit protektionistischen Maßnahmen experimentierten, entschied sich Chile für wirtschaftliche Freiheit.

Die Ergebnisse waren beeindruckend: Zwischen 1975 und 2000 verdreifachte sich Chiles Pro-Kopf-Einkommen. Die Armutsquote sank von 45% auf unter 10%. Heute hat Chile das höchste Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Südamerika und eine der stabilsten Wirtschaften der Region.

Mit einer gewissen Melancholie müssen wir beobachten, wie die hart erkämpften Errungenschaften Chiles allmählich in den Schatten der Vergänglichkeit gleiten. Was einst als Leuchtturm wirtschaftlicher Transformation strahlte, wird nun von den Nebeln der kollektiven Amnesie umhüllt. In dieser Dämmerung der Erinnerung finden interventionistische Strömungen erneut fruchtbaren Boden.

Dieses Phänomen ist nicht auf Chile beschränkt. Auch in Deutschland verblasst die Erinnerung an die transformative Kraft der freien Marktwirtschaft. Die Geschichte wird umgedichtet, in der wirtschaftliche Freiheit als unbarmherziger Kapitalismus karikiert wird, während staatliche Intervention als einziger Weg zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit glorifiziert wird.

Chinas große Öffnung

Im Reich der Mitte vollzog sich die vielleicht dramatischste wirtschaftliche Metamorphose unserer Zeit. Nach Jahrzehnten der Isolation und planwirtschaftlicher Starrheit öffnete China unter Deng Xiaoping vorsichtig die Tore zur wirtschaftlichen Freiheit.

Die Transformation begann in den Reisfeldern, wo Bauern erstmals seit Generationen über ihre eigene Ernte bestimmen durften. Sie setzte sich fort in den pulsierenden Sonderwirtschaftszonen, wo unternehmerische Energie auf globale Märkte traf. 

Das Ergebnis war atemberaubend: Fast vier Jahrzehnte mit durchschnittlich 10 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum jährlich – eine beispiellose Leistung in der Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Mehr als 800 Millionen Menschen überwanden die Armut und fanden den Weg in die globale Mittelschicht. Selbst die partielle Einführung wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten entfesselte eine Produktivität, die die Welt veränderte.

Die zeitlose Lektion

Das Geheimnis wirtschaftlicher Erneuerung liegt nicht in komplexen Theorien oder staatlichen Eingriffen, sondern in der einfachen Weisheit, Menschen die Freiheit zu geben, ihre Träume zu verwirklichen. Wenn wir von "Wirtschaftswundern" sprechen, verkennen wir die wahre Natur dieser Transformationen.

Sie sind keine mysteriösen Anomalien, sondern vielmehr Bestätigungen eines zeitlosen Prinzips: In der fruchtbaren Erde wirtschaftlicher Freiheit blüht der menschliche Erfindungsgeist. Diese Erkenntnis ist keine ideologische Position, sondern eine durch die Geschichte vielfach bestätigte Wahrheit.

Die Lektion dieser Erfolgsgeschichten ist sowohl schlicht als auch tiefgründig: Der Weg zu Wohlstand und menschlicher Entfaltung führt über die Anerkennung und den Schutz wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten. In dieser Erkenntnis liegt vielleicht das wahre Wunder – die beständige Kraft einer einfachen Idee, die immer wieder Leben und Hoffnung in die dunkelsten wirtschaftlichen Landschaften bringt.

Der aufsteigende Stern des Südens

Jenseits der Andenkette, wo Argentinien und Chile ihre lange Grenze teilen, entfaltet sich eine neue Erfolgsgeschichte. Mit mutigen Reformen und einer Rückbesinnung auf wirtschaftliche Freiheit erwacht dieses Land mit viel Potenzial aus seinem langen Schlummer. Was wir beobachten, ist nichts weniger als die Geburt eines neuen südamerikanischen Wirtschaftswunders – geboren aus der Erkenntnis, dass Wohlstand nicht verteilt, sondern erschaffen wird.

Yeah, I’m sure everything in the file is legit. 👍 Let’s review the guard witness testimony…Oh wait, they weren’t at their posts despite 24/7 survellience instructions after another Epstein “suicide” attempt two weeks earlier. Well, at least the video of the suicide is in the file? Oh wait, a techical glitch. Damn those coincidences!

At this point, the Trump administration has zero credibility with me on anything related to the Epstein case and his clients. I still suspect the administration is using the Epstein files as leverage to keep a lot of RINOs in line, whereas they’d be sabotaging his agenda at every turn otherwise. However, I just don’t believe in ends-justify-the-means thinking. It’s led almost all of DC to toss out every bit of the values they might once have had.

Let's support Bitcoin merchants! I'd love to hear some of your latest Lightning purchases and interesting products you bought. Feel free to include links to the shops or businesses you bought from.

Who else has a recent purchase they’re excited about? Bonus sats if you found a killer deal! ⚡

Spend sats, not fiat!

If you missed our last thread, here are some of the items stackers recently spent and zap on.

Share and repost: N: https://njump.me/note1r0rllvtns2e8g2rqn0p9uytxucmjzal3pxslldjtfmxwp2amwjjqy3aazq X: https://x.com/AGORA_SN/status/1926579498629169410

https://stacker.news/items/988783

1. Install Sky Map (it's free and open source)
2. Launch the app and tap Accept, then tap OK
3. When asked to access the device's location, tap While Using The App
4. Tap somewhere on the screen to activate the menu, then tap ⁝ and select Settings
5. Disable Send Usage Statistics
6. Return to the main screen and enjoy stargazing!

ℹ️ Use the 🔍 icon in the upper toolbar to search for a specific celestial body, or tap the 👁️ icon to activate night mode

Sự bùng nổ của công nghệ số đã làm thay đổi cách người Việt tiếp cận và tận hưởng các loại hình giải trí, từ truyền hình, âm nhạc đến các nền tảng trực tuyến. Trong làn sóng chuyển đổi này, 42VN nổi bật như một trong những đơn vị tiên phong ứng dụng công nghệ hiện đại để mang đến trải nghiệm giải trí số hoàn toàn mới cho người dùng trong nước. Không chỉ cung cấp một nền tảng trực quan, dễ sử dụng, 42VN còn kết hợp giữa thiết kế thân thiện và khả năng cá nhân hóa nội dung dựa trên hành vi người dùng, từ đó tạo nên môi trường tương tác linh hoạt, phù hợp với mọi độ tuổi và phong cách sống. Việc tích hợp đa dạng dịch vụ giải trí số trên cùng một nền tảng không chỉ giúp người dùng tiết kiệm thời gian tìm kiếm mà còn nâng cao tính tiện lợi và khả năng truy cập mọi lúc, mọi nơi. Đây là một bước tiến đáng kể góp phần thúc đẩy xu hướng giải trí tại nhà – điều ngày càng phổ biến trong xã hội hiện đại, đặc biệt sau những thay đổi trong thói quen sinh hoạt hậu đại dịch.

Bên cạnh đó, 42VN còn đầu tư vào các yếu tố công nghệ nhằm nâng cao tốc độ truy cập, tối ưu khả năng xử lý dữ liệu và bảo mật thông tin cá nhân của người dùng. Hệ thống máy chủ hiện đại, khả năng tương thích đa thiết bị và giao diện hoàn toàn bằng tiếng Việt giúp mọi người dùng, kể cả người ít kinh nghiệm công nghệ, cũng dễ dàng tiếp cận và sử dụng. Quan trọng hơn, nền tảng này không chỉ đơn thuần là công cụ giải trí mà còn góp phần thúc đẩy tư duy sử dụng công nghệ một cách tích cực và có trách nhiệm. Việc 42VN thường xuyên cập nhật các tính năng mới, tổ chức các hoạt động tương tác và lắng nghe ý kiến người dùng cho thấy chiến lược phát triển lâu dài của họ không nằm ở việc cung cấp dịch vụ một chiều, mà là xây dựng một cộng đồng số năng động, thân thiện và bền vững. Trong tương lai, khi nhu cầu giải trí kỹ thuật số ngày càng gia tăng, mô hình hoạt động và định hướng đổi mới của 42VN chắc chắn sẽ đóng vai trò quan trọng trong việc hình thành một thế hệ người dùng Việt am hiểu công nghệ, yêu thích trải nghiệm số và sẵn sàng đón nhận những xu hướng mới của thời đại.

This piece is the first in a series that will focus on things I think are a priority if your focus is similar to mine: building a strong family and safeguarding their future.

Choosing the ideal place to raise a family is one of the most significant decisions you will ever make. For simplicity sake I will break down my thought process into key factors: strong property rights, the ability to grow your own food, access to fresh water, the freedom to own and train with guns, and a dependable community.

A Jurisdiction with Strong Property Rights

Strong property rights are essential and allow you to build on a solid foundation that is less likely to break underneath you. Regions with a history of limited government and clear legal protections for landowners are ideal. Personally I think the US is the single best option globally, but within the US there is a wide difference between which state you choose. Choose carefully and thoughtfully, think long term. Obviously if you are not American this is not a realistic option for you, there are other solid options available especially if your family has mobility. I understand many do not have this capability to easily move, consider that your first priority, making movement and jurisdiction choice possible in the first place.

Abundant Access to Fresh Water

Water is life. I cannot overstate the importance of living somewhere with reliable, clean, and abundant freshwater. Some regions face water scarcity or heavy regulations on usage, so prioritizing a place where water is plentiful and your rights to it are protected is critical. Ideally you should have well access so you are not tied to municipal water supplies. In times of crisis or chaos well water cannot be easily shutoff or disrupted. If you live in an area that is drought prone, you are one drought away from societal chaos. Not enough people appreciate this simple fact.

Grow Your Own Food

A location with fertile soil, a favorable climate, and enough space for a small homestead or at the very least a garden is key. In stable times, a small homestead provides good food and important education for your family. In times of chaos your family being able to grow and raise healthy food provides a level of self sufficiency that many others will lack. Look for areas with minimal restrictions, good weather, and a culture that supports local farming.

Guns

The ability to defend your family is fundamental. A location where you can legally and easily own guns is a must. Look for places with a strong gun culture and a political history of protecting those rights. Owning one or two guns is not enough and without proper training they will be a liability rather than a benefit. Get comfortable and proficient. Never stop improving your skills. If the time comes that you must use a gun to defend your family, the skills must be instinct. Practice. Practice. Practice.

A Strong Community You Can Depend On

No one thrives alone. A ride or die community that rallies together in tough times is invaluable. Seek out a place where people know their neighbors, share similar values, and are quick to lend a hand. Lead by example and become a good neighbor, people will naturally respond in kind. Small towns are ideal, if possible, but living outside of a major city can be a solid balance in terms of work opportunities and family security.

Let me know if you found this helpful. My plan is to break down how I think about these five key subjects in future posts.

Here’s a revised timeline of macro-level events from The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver, reimagined in a world where Bitcoin is adopted as a widely accepted form of money, altering the original narrative’s assumptions about currency collapse and economic control. In Shriver’s original story, the failure of Bitcoin is assumed amid the dominance of the bancor and the dollar’s collapse. Here, Bitcoin’s success reshapes the economic and societal trajectory, decentralizing power and challenging state-driven outcomes.

Part One: 2029–2032

• 2029 (Early Year)\ The United States faces economic strain as the dollar weakens against global shifts. However, Bitcoin, having gained traction emerges as a viable alternative. Unlike the original timeline, the bancor—a supranational currency backed by a coalition of nations—struggles to gain footing as Bitcoin’s decentralized adoption grows among individuals and businesses worldwide, undermining both the dollar and the bancor.

• 2029 (Mid-Year: The Great Renunciation)\ Treasury bonds lose value, and the government bans Bitcoin, labeling it a threat to sovereignty (mirroring the original bancor ban). However, a Bitcoin ban proves unenforceable—its decentralized nature thwarts confiscation efforts, unlike gold in the original story. Hyperinflation hits the dollar as the U.S. prints money, but Bitcoin’s fixed supply shields adopters from currency devaluation, creating a dual-economy split: dollar users suffer, while Bitcoin users thrive.

• 2029 (Late Year)\ Dollar-based inflation soars, emptying stores of goods priced in fiat currency. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transactions flourish in underground and online markets, stabilizing trade for those plugged into the bitcoin ecosystem. Traditional supply chains falter, but peer-to-peer Bitcoin networks enable local and international exchange, reducing scarcity for early adopters. The government’s gold confiscation fails to bolster the dollar, as Bitcoin’s rise renders gold less relevant.

• 2030–2031\ Crime spikes in dollar-dependent urban areas, but Bitcoin-friendly regions see less chaos, as digital wallets and smart contracts facilitate secure trade. The U.S. government doubles down on surveillance to crack down on bitcoin use. A cultural divide deepens: centralized authority weakens in Bitcoin-adopting communities, while dollar zones descend into lawlessness.

• 2032\ By this point, Bitcoin is de facto legal tender in parts of the U.S. and globally, especially in tech-savvy or libertarian-leaning regions. The federal government’s grip slips as tax collection in dollars plummets—Bitcoin’s traceability is low, and citizens evade fiat-based levies. Rural and urban Bitcoin hubs emerge, while the dollar economy remains fractured.

Time Jump: 2032–2047

• Over 15 years, Bitcoin solidifies as a global reserve currency, eroding centralized control. The U.S. government adapts, grudgingly integrating bitcoin into policy, though regional autonomy grows as Bitcoin empowers local economies.

Part Two: 2047

• 2047 (Early Year)\ The U.S. is a hybrid state: Bitcoin is legal tender alongside a diminished dollar. Taxes are lower, collected in BTC, reducing federal overreach. Bitcoin’s adoption has decentralized power nationwide. The bancor has faded, unable to compete with Bitcoin’s grassroots momentum.

• 2047 (Mid-Year)\ Travel and trade flow freely in Bitcoin zones, with no restrictive checkpoints. The dollar economy lingers in poorer areas, marked by decay, but Bitcoin’s dominance lifts overall prosperity, as its deflationary nature incentivizes saving and investment over consumption. Global supply chains rebound, powered by bitcoin enabled efficiency.

• 2047 (Late Year)\ The U.S. is a patchwork of semi-autonomous zones, united by Bitcoin’s universal acceptance rather than federal control. Resource scarcity persists due to past disruptions, but economic stability is higher than in Shriver’s original dystopia—Bitcoin’s success prevents the authoritarian slide, fostering a freer, if imperfect, society.

Key Differences

• Currency Dynamics: Bitcoin’s triumph prevents the bancor’s dominance and mitigates hyperinflation’s worst effects, offering a lifeline outside state control.
• Government Power: Centralized authority weakens as Bitcoin evades bans and taxation, shifting power to individuals and communities.
• Societal Outcome: Instead of a surveillance state, 2047 sees a decentralized, bitcoin driven world—less oppressive, though still stratified between Bitcoin haves and have-nots.

This reimagining assumes Bitcoin overcomes Shriver’s implied skepticism to become a robust, adopted currency by 2029, fundamentally altering the novel’s bleak trajectory.

I’ve written about MSTR twice already, https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr and https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr-part-2, but I want to focus on legendary short seller James Chanos’ current trade wherein he buys bitcoin (via ETF) and shorts MSTR, in essence to “be like Mike” Saylor who sells MSTR shares at the market and uses them to add bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet. After all, if it’s good enough for Saylor, why shouldn’t everyone be doing it — shorting a company whose stock price is more than 2x its bitcoin holdings and using the proceeds to buy the bitcoin itself?

Saylor himself has said selling shares at 2x NAV (net asset value) to buy bitcoin is like selling dollars for two dollars each, and Chanos has apparently decided to get in while the getting (market cap more than 2x net asset value) is good. If the price of bitcoin moons, sending MSTR’s shares up, you are more than hedged in that event, too. At least that’s the theory.

The problem with this bet against MSTR’s mNAV, i.e., you are betting MSTR’s market cap will converge 1:1 toward its NAV in the short and medium term is this trade does not exist in a vacuum. Saylor has described how his ATM’s (at the market) sales of shares are accretive in BTC per share because of this very premium they carry. Yes, we’ll dilute your shares of the company, but because we’re getting you 2x the bitcoin per share, you are getting an ever smaller slice of an ever bigger overall pie, and the pie is growing 2x faster than your slice is reducing. (I https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr how this works in my first post.)

But for this accretion to continue, there must be a constant supply of “greater fools” to pony up for the infinitely printable shares which contain only half their value in underlying bitcoin. Yes, those shares will continue to accrete more BTC per share, but only if there are more fools willing to make this trade in the future. So will there be a constant supply of such “fools” to keep fueling MSTR’s mNAV multiple indefinitely?

Yes, there will be in my opinion because you have to look at the trade from the prospective fools’ perspective. Those “fools” are not trading bitcoin for MSTR, they are trading their dollars, selling other equities to raise them maybe, but in the end it’s a dollars for shares trade. They are not selling bitcoin for them.

You might object that those same dollars could buy bitcoin instead, so they are surely trading the opportunity cost of buying bitcoin for them, but if only 5-10 percent of the market (or less) is buying bitcoin itself, the bucket in which which those “fools” reside is the entire non-bitcoin-buying equity market. (And this is not considering the even larger debt market which Saylor has yet to tap in earnest.)

So for those 90-95 percent who do not and are not presently planning to own bitcoin itself, is buying MSTR a fool’s errand, so to speak? Not remotely. If MSTR shares are infinitely printable ATM, they are still less so than the dollar and other fiat currencies. And MSTR shares are backed 2:1 by bitcoin itself, while the fiat currencies are backed by absolutely nothing. So if you hold dollars or euros, trading them for MSTR shares is an errand more sage than foolish.

That’s why this trade (buying BTC and shorting MSTR) is so dangerous. Not only are there many people who won’t buy BTC buying MSTR, there are many funds and other investment entities who are only able to buy MSTR.

Do you want to get BTC at 1:1 with the 5-10 percent or MSTR backed 2:1 with the 90-95 percent. This is a bit like medical tests that have a 95 percent accuracy rate for an asymptomatic disease that only one percent of the population has. If someone tests positive, it’s more likely to be a false one than an indication he has the disease*. The accuracy rate, even at 19:1, is subservient to the size of the respective populations.

At some point this will no longer be the case, but so long as the understanding of bitcoin is not widespread, so long as the dollar is still the unit of account, the “greater fools” buying MSTR are still miles ahead of the greatest fools buying neither, and the stock price and mNAV should only increase.

. . .

One other thought: it’s more work to play defense than offense because the person on offense knows where he’s going, and the defender can only react to him once he moves. Similarly, Saylor by virtue of being the issuer of the shares knows when more will come online while Chanos and other short sellers are borrowing them to sell in reaction to Saylor’s strategy. At any given moment, Saylor can pause anytime, choosing to issue convertible debt or preferred shares with which to buy more bitcoin, and the shorts will not be given advance notice.

If the price runs, and there is no ATM that week because Saylor has stopped on a dime, so to speak, the shorts will be left having to scramble to change directions and buy the shares back to cover. Their momentum might be in the wrong direction, though, and like Allen Iverson breaking ankles with a crossover, Saylor might trigger a massive short squeeze, rocketing the share price ever higher. That’s why he actually welcomes Chanos et al trying this copycat strategy — it becomes the fuel for outsized gains.

For that reason, news that Chanos is shorting MSTR has not shaken my conviction, though there are other more pertinent https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr-part-2 with MSTR, of which one should be aware. And as always, do your own due diligence before investing in anything.

* To understand this, consider a population of 100,000, with one percent having a disease. That means 1,000 have it, 99,000 do not. If the test is 95 percent accurate, and everyone is tested, 950 of the 1,000 will test positive (true positives), 50 who have it will test negative (false negatives.) Of the positives, 95 percent of 99,000 (94,050) will test negative (true negatives) and five percent (4,950) will test positive (false positives). That means 4,950 out of 5,900 positives (84%) will be false.

Trong thế giới công nghệ số ngày càng phát triển, giao diện người dùng (UI) đóng vai trò ngày càng quan trọng trong việc thu hút và giữ chân người dùng. Với OK22, giao diện không đơn thuần chỉ là phương tiện kết nối giữa người và hệ thống, mà còn là yếu tố tạo nên trải nghiệm hoàn hảo. Từ cách bố trí các nút chức năng, màu sắc cho đến tốc độ phản hồi khi tương tác, tất cả đều được tối ưu hóa nhằm đảm bảo rằng người dùng cảm thấy thoải mái, dễ thao tác và tin tưởng vào nền tảng. OK22 chú trọng thiết kế giao diện dựa trên hành vi người dùng thực tế, nghĩa là họ không chỉ thiết kế theo thị hiếu mà còn nghiên cứu kỹ càng thói quen, tần suất và nhu cầu sử dụng của từng nhóm người dùng. Nhờ vậy, người dùng dù mới tiếp cận lần đầu cũng có thể nhanh chóng làm quen với hệ thống mà không cần thời gian học hỏi dài. Không những vậy, việc liên tục cập nhật các xu hướng thiết kế mới giúp OK22 luôn giữ được vẻ hiện đại và sự chuyên nghiệp, từ đó tạo nên ấn tượng tích cực trong mắt người dùng ngay từ lần đầu sử dụng.

OK22 không chỉ dừng lại ở giao diện người dùng trực quan mà còn kết hợp chặt chẽ với trải nghiệm người dùng (UX) nhằm mang lại cảm giác liền mạch, thống nhất và tiện lợi trong mọi thao tác. Bằng cách tạo ra luồng thao tác ngắn gọn, logic và dễ hiểu, nền tảng giúp người dùng tiết kiệm thời gian và công sức trong suốt quá trình sử dụng. Tính năng tìm kiếm thông minh, cá nhân hóa nội dung và hỗ trợ trực tuyến được tích hợp khéo léo vào giao diện, giúp người dùng luôn cảm thấy được hỗ trợ kịp thời và đúng nhu cầu. OK22 cũng rất quan tâm đến khía cạnh bảo mật và quyền riêng tư, vì vậy các thông báo, xác thực và lựa chọn quyền truy cập được bố trí rõ ràng, dễ quản lý. Việc đồng bộ hóa thiết kế trên các nền tảng khác nhau như web, ứng dụng di động và phiên bản nhẹ cũng giúp người dùng có được cảm nhận nhất quán dù sử dụng thiết bị nào. Tất cả những điều đó chứng minh rằng việc đầu tư vào giao diện và trải nghiệm người dùng không chỉ là xu hướng, mà còn là chiến lược lâu dài giúp OK22 duy trì lợi thế cạnh tranh, gia tăng sự hài lòng và khẳng định vị thế trong lĩnh vực công nghệ số hiện đại.

No crescente universo de plataformas de jogos online, a H2Bet se destaca como uma opção inovadora, segura e recheada de diversão para os jogadores brasileiros. Com uma interface moderna e intuitiva, a H2Bet vem conquistando cada vez mais usuários que buscam entretenimento de qualidade, diversas opções de jogos e uma experiência digital fluida e confiável.

Uma Plataforma Feita para o Público Brasileiro Desde o primeiro acesso, é possível perceber que a H2Bet foi pensada para atender às necessidades do público brasileiro. O site é totalmente traduzido para o português, com suporte ao cliente eficiente e disponível 24 horas por dia, todos os dias da semana. O atendimento pode ser feito via chat ao vivo ou WhatsApp, oferecendo respostas rápidas e eficazes para qualquer dúvida ou solicitação.

Além disso, a plataforma aceita métodos de pagamento populares no Brasil, como PIX, boleto bancário e carteiras digitais, garantindo mais praticidade nas transações financeiras. Isso facilita tanto os depósitos quanto os saques, promovendo uma experiência mais fluida para todos os jogadores.

Diversidade de Jogos para Todos os Gostos Um dos grandes diferenciais da H2Betestá em sua ampla variedade de jogos. A plataforma oferece opções para todos os perfis de jogadores — desde os iniciantes até os mais experientes. Entre os destaques estão:

Slots (Caça-níqueis): Com gráficos envolventes, animações modernas e uma enorme variedade de temas, os slots são perfeitos para quem busca diversão rápida e visualmente atrativa.

Jogos de Mesa: Clássicos como roleta, blackjack e bacará estão presentes na H2Bet, proporcionando uma experiência dinâmica e estratégica para os jogadores que gostam de desafios mentais.

Apostas Esportivas: Os fãs de esportes também têm espaço garantido na H2Bet. É possível apostar em jogos de futebol, basquete, tênis e diversas outras modalidades, tanto nacionais quanto internacionais.

A plataforma trabalha com provedores de jogos renomados mundialmente, garantindo alta qualidade gráfica, jogabilidade otimizada e total segurança nos resultados.

Uma Experiência do Jogador Incomparável Na H2Bet, a experiência do usuário é prioridade. Tudo foi cuidadosamente projetado para que o jogador possa se divertir sem complicações. O processo de cadastro é rápido e simplificado, permitindo que o novo usuário comece a jogar em poucos minutos. Além disso, o site é totalmente responsivo, funcionando perfeitamente em computadores, tablets e smartphones.

Outro ponto de destaque são as promoções e bônus oferecidos aos jogadores. Desde bônus de boas-vindas até promoções sazonais e programas de fidelidade, a H2Bet recompensa a lealdade dos seus usuários com benefícios exclusivos que aumentam ainda mais a diversão.

A segurança da plataforma também merece elogios. A H2Bet utiliza tecnologia de criptografia de ponta para proteger os dados dos jogadores, além de manter total transparência em seus termos e condições.

Conclusão A H2Bet chega ao mercado brasileiro com uma proposta clara: oferecer uma plataforma de jogos online completa, segura e envolvente. Com uma vasta seleção de jogos, suporte dedicado ao jogador e uma interface pensada para o usuário, a H2Bet se posiciona como uma das melhores opções de entretenimento digital no Brasil. Se você busca emoção, praticidade e uma experiência de jogo diferenciada, a H2Bet é o lugar certo para você.

No crescente universo das plataformas de jogos online, a BET7K se destaca como uma das opções mais completas e inovadoras disponíveis para o público brasileiro. Com uma interface moderna, navegação intuitiva e uma variedade de jogos que agrada desde os iniciantes até os mais experientes, a plataforma tem conquistado uma legião de fãs em todo o país. Neste artigo, vamos apresentar um panorama completo sobre a BET7K, incluindo seus principais recursos, tipos de jogos oferecidos e a experiência do jogador.

Uma Plataforma Feita Para o Público Brasileiro Desde o primeiro acesso, é possível perceber que a bet7kfoi pensada especialmente para atender às preferências do público brasileiro. O site é totalmente em português, conta com suporte ao cliente local e métodos de pagamento adaptados à realidade do país, incluindo Pix, boleto bancário e carteiras digitais. Essa acessibilidade facilita o cadastro e as transações, tornando a experiência do usuário muito mais simples e prática.

Além disso, a BET7K também oferece promoções e bônus exclusivos para jogadores brasileiros, o que contribui para um engajamento contínuo e recompensador.

Diversidade de Jogos para Todos os Gostos A variedade de jogos é um dos pontos fortes da BET7K. A plataforma reúne os principais títulos do mercado, desenvolvidos por provedores de renome internacional, garantindo gráficos de alta qualidade, jogabilidade fluida e uma experiência imersiva.

Entre os destaques estão os populares jogos de slot, que combinam sorte e emoção com temáticas variadas e recursos especiais, como rodadas grátis e multiplicadores de prêmios. Para quem prefere algo mais estratégico, a BET7K também oferece opções como pôquer, blackjack e bacará, todos em versões otimizadas para desktop e dispositivos móveis.

Além disso, os jogos de roleta ao vivo proporcionam uma experiência interativa em tempo real, permitindo que os jogadores se sintam parte de uma atmosfera de luxo e sofisticação, mesmo jogando de casa.

A Experiência do Jogador em Primeiro Lugar A BET7K investe constantemente em tecnologia e segurança para garantir que os usuários possam se divertir com tranquilidade. A plataforma utiliza criptografia avançada para proteger os dados pessoais e financeiros, além de operar com licença de funcionamento internacional, o que demonstra seu compromisso com a transparência e a legalidade.

Outro diferencial importante é o atendimento ao cliente, disponível 24 horas por dia, 7 dias por semana. Os jogadores podem entrar em contato através de chat ao vivo, e-mail ou redes sociais, sempre contando com uma equipe treinada para resolver qualquer dúvida ou problema com agilidade.

Conclusão A BET7K é uma plataforma completa, confiável e voltada para proporcionar a melhor experiência possível aos seus usuários. Seja você um iniciante curioso ou um jogador experiente em busca de novos desafios, a BET7K oferece uma combinação ideal de diversão, segurança e oportunidades de ganhos reais.

Com sua abordagem focada no público brasileiro, promoções atraentes, grande variedade de jogos e suporte de qualidade, a BET7K vem se consolidando como uma das principais referências em entretenimento online no Brasil. Se você ainda não conhece, essa é a hora perfeita para explorar tudo o que a plataforma tem a oferecer.

• Lumilumi The Nostr Web Client.

Lightweight modes are available, such as not displaying icon images, not loading images automatically, etc.

• MAKIMONO A lightweight Long Form Content Editor with editing functionality for your articles. It supports embedding Nostr IDs via NIP-19 and custom emoji integration.

• Nostr Share Component Demo A simple web component for sharing content to Nostr. Create customizable share buttons that let users easily post to Nostr clients with pre-filled content. Perfect for blogs, websites, or any content you want shared on the Nostr network. Try the interactive demo to see how seamlessly it integrates with your website.

  Only clients that support receiving shared text via URL parameters can be added to the client list. If your preferred client meets this requirement, feel free to submit a pull request.

• Nostr Follow Organizer A practical tool for managing your Nostr follows(kind3) with ease.

• NAKE NAKE is a powerful utility for Nostr developers and users that simplifies working with NIP-19 and NIP-49 formats. This versatile tool allows you to easily encode and decode Nostr identifiers and encrypted data according to these protocol specifications.

• chrome extension
• firefox add-on

• Nostviewstr A versatile Nostr tool that specializes in creating and editing addressable or replaceable events on the Nostr network. This comprehensive editor allows you to manage various types of lists and structured content within the Nostr ecosystem.

• Luminostr Luminostr is a recovery tool for Nostr that helps you retrieve and restore Addressable or Replaceable events (such as kind: 0, 3, 10002, 10000, etc.) from relays. It allows you to search for these events across multiple relays and optionally re-publish them to ensure their persistence.

• Nostr Bookmark Recovery Tool Nostr Bookmark Recovery Tool is a utility for retrieving and re-publishing past bookmark events ( kind:10003,30001,30003 ) from public relays. Rather than automatically selecting the latest version, it allows users to pick any previous version and overwrite the current one with it. This is useful for restoring a preferred snapshot of your bookmark list.

• Profile Editor Profile Editor is a simple tool for editing and publishing your Nostr profile (kind: 0 event). It allows you to update fields such as name, display name, picture, and about text, and then publish the updated profile to selected relays.

• Nostr bookmark viewer Nostr Bookmark Viewer is a tool for viewing and editing Nostr bookmark events (kind: 10003, 30001, 30003). It allows users to load bookmark data from relays, browse saved posts, and optionally edit and publish their own bookmark lists.

• Nostr Note Duplicater Nostr Note Duplicater is a tool that rebroadcasts an existing Nostr event from a relay to other selected relays.

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• いろいろbotサイト

No universo do entretenimento online, plataformas confiáveis, seguras e repletas de opções de jogos são cada vez mais valorizadas pelos jogadores brasileiros. A Betao surge como uma dessas grandes apostas, conquistando espaço entre os amantes de jogos virtuais por oferecer uma experiência dinâmica, envolvente e repleta de oportunidades de ganhos. Com um sistema moderno, interface amigável e suporte completo ao usuário, a Betao se destaca como um verdadeiro centro de entretenimento digital.

Conhecendo a Plataforma Betao Desde o primeiro acesso, o usuário percebe o cuidado da Betao em oferecer uma navegação fluida e intuitiva. O site é organizado de maneira eficiente, com menus claros que facilitam a localização dos jogos, promoções e informações de conta. Compatível com computadores e dispositivos móveis, a plataforma é ideal para quem deseja jogar em qualquer lugar, a qualquer momento.

A segurança é um dos pontos fortes da Betao. Com sistemas de criptografia atualizados e uma política rigorosa de proteção de dados, os jogadores podem ficar tranquilos quanto à integridade de suas informações pessoais e financeiras. Além disso, o suporte técnico é ágil e atencioso, pronto para resolver qualquer dúvida ou dificuldade de forma rápida e eficaz.

Variedade de Jogos para Todos os Estilos A grande diversidade de jogos é outro atrativo da Betao. A plataforma reúne títulos que atendem aos mais variados perfis de jogadores, desde os iniciantes até os mais experientes. Entre as opções, estão os tradicionais jogos de cartas, como pôquer e bacará, além de roletas e slots com temáticas criativas e gráficos de alta qualidade.

Os slots, em especial, são um grande sucesso na Betao. Com centenas de títulos disponíveis, os jogadores encontram desde opções clássicas com três rolos até versões modernas com múltiplas linhas de pagamento e recursos especiais. Muitos desses jogos oferecem rodadas grátis, multiplicadores e bônus interativos que aumentam ainda mais a emoção.

A Betao também oferece modalidades com crupiês ao vivo, criando uma atmosfera realista e interativa, onde o jogador pode se sentir em uma verdadeira sala de jogos, mesmo estando em casa. Essa funcionalidade aumenta a imersão e proporciona uma experiência diferenciada e sofisticada.

Experiência do Jogador: Simplicidade e Emoção O foco principal da Betao é proporcionar ao usuário uma jornada divertida e segura. Desde o cadastro, que é simples e rápido, até o processo de depósito e saque — que aceita os métodos de pagamento mais populares entre os brasileiros — tudo foi pensado para facilitar a vida do jogador.

As promoções constantes também são um atrativo à parte. A Betao oferece bônus de boas-vindas, campanhas sazonais e programas de fidelidade que recompensam os jogadores mais ativos com prêmios exclusivos. Isso cria uma sensação de valorização e motiva os usuários a retornarem sempre.

Outro ponto positivo é a transparência da plataforma. As regras dos jogos, os critérios para os bônus e os termos de uso estão sempre disponíveis de forma clara, reforçando a confiabilidade da Betao.

Conclusão A Betao é mais do que uma simples plataforma de jogos: é um ambiente completo de entretenimento digital, onde a diversão se alia à segurança e à inovação. Com uma oferta ampla de jogos, suporte eficiente e promoções atrativas, a Betao vem ganhando cada vez mais a preferência dos brasileiros que buscam emoção e praticidade em um só lugar. Se você procura uma plataforma moderna, confiável e repleta de possibilidades, a Betao é, sem dúvida, a escolha certa para sua próxima aventura online.

Eine Stunde Klassik! Der Münchner Pianist und "Musikdurchdringer" Jürgen Plich stellt jeden Dienstag um 20 Uhr große klassische Musik vor. Er teilt seine Hör- und Spielerfahrung und seine persönliche Sicht auf die Meisterwerke. Er spielt selbst besondere, unbekannte Aufnahmen, erklärt, warum die Musik so und nicht anders klingt und hat eine Menge aus dem Leben der Komponisten zu erzählen.

https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/eine-stunde-klassik-opus-eins?

Sonntags um 10 Uhr in der Wiederholung.

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Integer vitae tempor justo, ac fermentum purus

• バーガーキング

• バーミヤン 台湾カステラ

• 焼肉ライク

• 本屋でギータの練習本探してみるとか

• シードしぐなーの材料 → 普通にHWW買ったほうがいい説

  • https://github.com/SeedSigner/seedsigner/releases
    • Raspberry Pi Zero v1.3 ← v1.3はヘッダピンを自分でつけないといけないからWHにしてWi-FiBluetoothを外すのがよい
    • Raspberry Pi Zero W ← Wi-Fi外すのが少し面倒
    • Raspberry Pi Zero WH ¥3500
  • WaveShare　1.3inch LCD HAT【14972】1.3インチ 240×240 IPS LCDディスプレイHAT for RaspberryPi ¥1980
  • Raspberry Pi Zero用スパイカメラ ¥3310

  リボンの長さが色々ある seedsignerのケースによるけど多分短いやつでいける

  ↑こういうやつでいい ↑ケースによってはこういうのがいい場合もある

Phasellus erat metus, suscipit et nisi a, dignissim luctus risus\ Nam eleifend aliquet aliquam

Curabitur vulputate velit elit, sit amet euismod nibh venenatis et

₍ ･ᴗ･ ₎ ₍ ･ᴗ･ ₎₍ ･ᴗ･ ₎

CHAPTER TWENTY EIGHT

“He’s not just surviving,” Helen hissed through clenched teeth, her heels striking the marble floors of her penthouse like war drums. “He’s thriving, and it’s infuriating.”

Mark leaned against the window, watching the evening lights of the city shimmer beneath them. “That transparency stunt he pulled? Genius,” he muttered. “It shut down every accusation we tried to plant before it could sprout.”

Helen turned abruptly. “Then we change the terrain. If he’s building on trust, we flood him with betrayal. We turn his loyalists into doubters.”

Mark raised a brow. “And how do you propose we do that?”

She walked over to the coffee table, picked up a manila envelope, and tossed it onto his lap. It opened with a quiet rustle, revealing photos some staged, others manipulated of James in ambiguous meetings, with headlines drafted in bold red: “JP President Linked to Foreign Espionage?”, “Undisclosed Meetings with Rival Companies.”

“These go live next week,” Helen said coldly. “And if we can’t break his empire from the outside, we’ll corrode it from within.”

Meanwhile, across the city, James stood in the training hall of JP Enterprises, overseeing a leadership seminar. The room brimmed with young professionals, eager minds molded by his vision. He paced slowly, hands behind his back.

“Leadership isn’t about dominance,” he said, his voice calm yet commanding. “It’s about service. True power lies in how many people rise because of you, not how many kneel before you.”

Applause followed, but James’s mind drifted. The storm was coming and he could feel it. The shadows hadn’t retreated; they’d merely been biding their time. But what Helen and Mark underestimated was the strength of what he’d built. This time, he wasn’t alone.

After the seminar, he returned to his office where Rita and Charles were already waiting.

“They’re not backing down,” Rita said, placing a thick fillet on his desk. “Our cybersecurity team intercepted metadata from an anonymous article scheduled to be released next Monday. It traces back to one of Helen’s known shell accounts.”

Charles leaned forward. “They’re targeting your integrity again, James. This time with international implications. If this goes public, it could trigger a full-scale investigation even if the claims are false.”

James took a deep breath. “Then it’s time to activate Project Aegis.”

Rita’s eyes widened. “You mean?”

“Yes,” James affirmed. “Full legal exposure. Every executive, every document, every deal for the last five years. We publish it ourselves before they can twist it.”

Charles nodded slowly, admiration gleaming in his eyes. “You're not just playing defense anymore.”

“No,” James said, his voice resolute. “I’m done playing. It’s time they learn integrity is not a weakness. It’s my greatest strength.”

That same night, Helen and Mark received a notification that sent chills down their spines. Every major news outlet was now broadcasting a preemptive report by JP Enterprises: “A Legacy in the Light JP Enterprises Opens Vaults to Public Scrutiny”. The article was followed by interviews with board members, stakeholders, and long-time employees all affirming James’s character and transparency.

Helen clenched her jaw, watching the screen with cold fury. “He’s rewriting the rules…” she muttered.

“No,” Mark whispered. “He’s building a world where we don’t exist.”

In the quiet of his penthouse office, James stood by the tall glass windows, the city’s nightscape shimmering beneath a sky painted in indigo hues. A cup of untouched coffee sat on the mahogany desk behind him. His reflection merged with the sprawling lights of a man once discarded, now the pillar of a corporate empire.

Despite the outward calm, James’s mind churned like a brewing storm. The recent smear campaign, although crushed by his proactive transparency, had planted seeds of uncertainty in some corners of the public. He knew Helen and Mark were far from surrendering. Their strategy had evolved into psychological warfare planting doubt, sowing division, manipulating perception.

“It’s time to start setting traps of our own,” he murmured under his breath.

He turned from the window as Charles entered the room, holding a tablet.

“It’s worse than we anticipated,” Charles began, concerned with furrowing his brow. “They’ve been funneling money through offshore accounts, paying journalists, bloggers, even some minor influencers to perpetuate false narratives. They’re not just trying to ruin your reputation, they're orchestrating a hostile takeover.”

James exhaled, slowly walking to his desk. “Then we play them at their own game but with honor. I want a full audit of every subsidiary tied to Ray Enterprises and Helen’s private ventures. Any shadow move they’ve made, I want it exposed legally, publicly, and without a hint of impropriety.”

Charles gave a resolute nod. “I’ll get our internal compliance team on it tonight.”

Meanwhile, across town, Helen sat before a marble fireplace in her lavish estate, her fingers tapping impatiently against a crystal glass of wine. Mark sat across from her, scrolling through dozens of negative online articles none of which were about James.

“He flipped the story again,” Mark said bitterly. “People are actually praising him for his transparency. Investors are swarming back. Even media outlets we bribed are retracting their pieces just to avoid a lawsuit.”

Helen’s eyes burned with fury. “Then we escalate. If he wants to play hero, we’ll paint him as a fraud who built an empire on stolen foundations. Everyone has a skeleton buried deep. We just need to find his.”

Back at JP Enterprises, James was meeting with Rita and a trusted cybersecurity analyst, a sharp-eyed woman named Lilian.

“We’ve traced an internal breach,” Lilian reported. “One of the forwarded articles that nearly made it to international outlets was leaked from someone inside our media division.”

Rita frowned. “Tracy.”

James nodded slowly. “She’s the thread connecting Mark and Helen’s plots. But she’s not alone. There’s another… more subtle player behind all this. And I intend to flush them out without alerting the rats.”

The next day, James called a confidential press meeting. With calm confidence, he unveiled The Integrity Initiative, a new transparency program offering unprecedented access to the inner workings of JP Enterprises for all stakeholders.

“We’ve built this company on the belief that truth withstands scrutiny,” he said, his voice echoing through the hall. “We have nothing to hide and for those trying to destroy us with lies, we welcome your eyes. Because when the truth stands tall, shadows disappear.”

The speech went viral within hours. Critics became advocates. Doubters became loyalists. And for Mark and Helen, the walls began to close in faster than they expected.

It had been two days since James’s press conference, and the atmosphere in the city’s business sphere had shifted noticeably. Conversations once filled with doubt and suspicion about JP Enterprises now carried admiration and curiosity. The sudden introduction of The Integrity Initiative had stirred an entirely new level of respect for the company and for James as its helmsman.

Robustheit ist die Eigenschaft eines Systems, auch unter schwierigen Bedingungen funktionieren zu können: trotz Störungen und einer gewissen Verschlechterung seiner internen Prozesse. Das Leben als Ganzes ist robust. Dasselbe gilt für Ökosysteme: Sie können den Verlust einiger Arten überstehen und sich an veränderte Umweltbedingungen anpassen.

Der Hauptfeind der Robustheit ist das Streben nach Effizienz. Ein auf Effizienz optimiertes System hat keine Reserven mehr, sich an Störungen anzupassen. Es wird fragil. Wir optimieren die Gesellschaft und ihre Subsysteme (z. B. Institutionen) seit 5000 Jahren auf Wachstum, Effizienz und Produktivität. Und wir haben das Optimierungstempo mit den beiden Turbo-Boosts fossile Brennstoffe und Informationstechnologie beschleunigt. Deshalb ist alles um uns herum fragil geworden. Beispielsweise kann ein Virusausbruch in China sich zu einer Pandemie entwickeln, weil die Menschen weit und schnell reisen können und müssen.

Robustheit ist nicht absolut und dauerhaft. Ein System kann durch Störungen, die zu gravierend für es sind, fragil werden. Ehemals robuste Ökosysteme wie Regenwälder wurden durch menschliche Ausbeutung fragil. Deregulierung hat sowohl Regierungen als auch die Wirtschaft effizienter gemacht, allerdings zum Preis zunehmender Fragilität. Unternehmen sind mächtiger geworden als viele Staaten, was bedeutet, dass demokratisch gewählte Parlamente und Regierungen nicht mehr die Kontrolle haben. Heute kann eine einzelne Person demokratische Wahlen weltweit manipulieren, indem sie ein soziales Netzwerk kontrolliert. Das ist Fragilität pur.

Wir müssen als Gesellschaft die Effizienz in den Hintergrund rücken und uns mehr auf Robustheit konzentrieren.

至高の油淋鶏の動画 https://youtu.be/Ur2tYVZppBU のレシピ書き起こし

材料（2人分）

• 鶏モモ肉…300g
• A［しょうゆ…小さじ1　塩…小さじ1／3　酒…大さじ1と1／2　おろしショウガ…5g　片栗粉…大さじ1］
• 長ネギ（みじん切り）…1／2本（50g）
• ショウガ（みじん切り）…10g
• B［しょうゆ…大さじ2　砂糖…小さじ4　酢…大さじ1 ゴマ油…小さじ1 味の素…4ふり 赤唐辛子（小口切り）…1本分］
• 赤唐辛子、花椒（各好みで）…各適量

手順

1. 肉を切る

皮を上にして適当に八等分くらい

1. 肉を肉入ってたトレーかなんか適当な入れ物に入れてそこに 醤油こさじ１、塩こさじ1/3、酒おおさじ1と1/2 と ショウガ*５グラムすりおろして入れて軽く混ぜる
2. そこに、片栗粉おおさじ１入れて混ぜる（漬ける段階にも片栗粉を入れることで厚衣になりやすい）
3. 常温で１５分くらい置く
4. その間にたれを作る

   1. 長ネギ50gを細かいみじん切りにしてボウルに入れる（白いとこも青いとこも）

      （端っこを残して縦に切り込みを入れて横に切るとよい） 2. ショウガ10gを細かいみじん切りにして同じボウルにいれる 3. 鷹の爪１本分入れる（任意） 4. 醤油おおさじ２、砂糖小さじ4、酢（穀物酢）おおさじ１を入れる 5. 味の素４振りいれてよく混ぜる 6. 小さなフライパン（油が少なくて済むので）に底に浸るくらいの油を入れ、中火で温める 7. 肉に片栗粉をたっぷりつけて揚げる 8. 揚がったらキッチンペーパーを敷いたなにかしらとかに上げる 9. もりつけてタレをかけて完成

CHAPTER TWENTY SEVEN “We’re finished,” she snapped, pacing furiously. “They’ve locked every door. We’ve been blacklisted by every reputable firm in the city. No one's taking our calls, and now the tax authorities are sniffing around!”

Mark stood slowly, still holding the glass. “It’s all because of him,” he growled. “James. That street rat turned king. He’s poisoned the whole industry against us.”

Helen scoffed. “He didn’t poison it. He conquered it. You and I? We underestimated him. We saw rags and never imagined the gold beneath.”

There was a moment of raw, uncomfortable silence.

“And now,” she added bitterly, “he owns not just the Ray company but the story. The people adore him. Every misstep we make adds to his legend.”

Mark turned away, the fury in his chest simmering just below the surface. “Then maybe it’s time we stop playing by his rules.”

Helen raised an eyebrow. “What are you thinking?”

“Something permanent,” he said coldly. “Something that’ll make the city question his legacy. We won’t touch him directly. But we’ll dismantle everything around him his alliances, his investors, his trust.”

Meanwhile, at JP Enterprises, James was meeting with his board members. The mood was triumphant. Contracts were flowing in from across the nation. Investors from overseas were lining up to collaborate. JP Enterprises was no longer a local giant, it was becoming a global force.

As the board meeting wrapped up, Charles approached James with a discreet file.

“We’ve uncovered something,” he said in a hushed tone. “Helen and Mark have begun contacting shell companies. They’re orchestrating something through offshore accounts. It’s not clear yet, but they’re moving funds and people.”

James took the file, flipping through the pages with a calm intensity. “They never learn,” he murmured. “Desperation is a dangerous motivator.”

Charles nodded. “Shall we alert the authorities?”

James paused. “Not yet. Let them think they’re getting away with it. Let them build the stage. And when the curtains rise, we’ll pull the spotlight on them ourselves.”

Outside, the sky turned amber as dusk crept over the horizon. Somewhere in the city, Mark and Helen were plotting their next move. But in the heart of JP Enterprises, James was already five steps ahead.

The night veiled the city in a silvery calm, but within the walls of an abandoned warehouse at the edge of town, shadows danced beneath flickering fluorescent lights. Mark and Helen stood amidst crates of outdated office furniture and rusted metal, far removed from the lavish boardrooms they once commanded. Their pride, now fragments, echoed in every creak of the floor beneath them.

“We’ve traced every name that still owes us favors,” Mark said, unfolding a large sheet of paper across a makeshift table. “This is our web. Media contacts. Shell consultants. A few digital mercenaries.”

Helen leaned over the table, eyes scanning the diagram. “It’s not about hitting him,” she whispered. “It’s about bleeding his legacy. Bit by bit. We drown him in whispers, not weapons.”

Their plan was insidious smear campaigns seeded in anonymous blogs, fabricated audits from paid ‘inspectors,’ leaks of doctored company records, and the reawakening of James’s past, even if the ghosts had already been proven false. They would question every victory he had, casting shadows over every triumph. If they couldn’t win, they would ruin the game.

Meanwhile, back at JP Enterprises, James sat in his office high above the city. The glass walls gave him a breathtaking view, but his gaze was introspective. His mind wandered through recent events the betrayal, the accusations, the painful resurgence of a forgotten past. But what stood out most was not the malice of others. It was how he had endured.

Charles entered the office, a slight knock preceding him. “We’ve secured the last two tech firms you were eyeing. Their CEOs are prepared to sign exclusive partnerships. Also, the board wants to recognize you officially as Global CEO during next month’s summit.”

James smiled faintly, though his eyes retained a solemn hue. “Good. But there’s something more important.” He turned his laptop around, displaying a series of anonymous online threads riddled with false claims and slander.

“They’ve begun,” he said softly. “Helen and Mark are orchestrating a campaign to rot our foundation from the inside out.”

Charles's expression darkened. “Should I initiate a counter-sweep?”

James shook his head. “No. We don’t fight shadows with swords. We fight them with light.” He paused, then added, “I want full transparency reports across every department. I want our investors to see our books before they ask. I want our work to speak so loudly, their lies get drowned out.”

In a conference the following morning, James stood before hundreds of stakeholders and partners, unveiling a revolutionary corporate transparency portal. Real-time audits, project status updates, and salary distributions were now accessible to all registered partners. The press called it “the death of corporate secrecy.”

While Mark and Helen were weaving illusions, James was showcasing reality.

Yet in the shadows, Helen grew more frustrated.

“He’s not cracking!” she shouted, hurling a tablet against the floor. “How is he still standing?”

Mark sat, quiet for once, rubbing his temples. “Because he’s not the man we knew. He’s not the beggar we mocked. He’s become… untouchable.”

Helen turned, her eyes blazing. “Then we don’t touch him. We find someone he cares about. We make him feel vulnerable again.”

Mark didn’t speak, but the silence between them felt like a pact being sealed.

Back at JP Enterprises, James met with Rita. Her sharpness and integrity had restored much of the company’s cultural fabric. He trusted her, more than most. And as they walked the office floors together, they discussed not just projects, but the future that would soon test every bond, every alliance.

https://stacker.news/items/988759

It seems like most Christians today have lost their reverence and awe of God. We’ve attributed God’s awesome creation by the word of His mouth to random chance and a Big Bang. We’ve attributed the many layers of sediment to millions and billions of years of time instead of God’s judgment of evil. We’ve emphasized His love and mercy to the point that we’ve forgotten about His holiness and righteous wrath. We’ve brought God down to our level and made Him either our “buddy” or made Him our magic genie servant, who is just there to answer our every want and whim.

The God of the Bible is a holy and awesome God who should be both loved and feared.

The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge;\ Fools despise wisdom and instruction. (Proverbs 1:7)

The God of the Bible is the Lord of Lords and King of Kings who “… upholds all things by the word of His power. …” (Hebrews 1:3). Yes, God loves us as sons. Yes, God is merciful. Yes, through Jesus we have the blessed opportunity to approach God directly. None of that means we get to treat God like just another friend. We are to approach God with fear and trembling and worship Him in reverence and awe.

Worship the Lord with reverence And rejoice with trembling. (Psalm 2:11)

Part of the problem is that our culture just doesn’t show reverence to authority. It focuses on self and freedom. The whole thought of reverence for authority is incomprehensible for many. Look at this Psalm of worship:

The Lord reigns, let the peoples tremble;\ He is enthroned above the cherubim, let the earth shake!\ The Lord is great in Zion,\ And He is exalted above all the peoples.\ Let them praise Your great and awesome name;\ Holy is He. (Psalm 99:1-3)

This is the way we should view God and the proper attitude for approaching God.

Another issue is that we don’t study what God has done in the past. In the Old Testament, God commanded the Israelites to setup monuments of remembrance and to teach their kids all of the great things God had done for them. When they failed to do so, Israel drifted astray.

You shall teach them to your sons, talking of them when you sit in your house and when you walk along the road and when you lie down and when you rise up. (Deuteronomy 11:19)

God has given us the Bible, His word, so that we can know Him, know His character, and know His great deeds. When we fail to be in His word daily, we can forget (or not even know) the greatness of our God.

Establish Your word to Your servant,\ As that which produces reverence for You. (Psalm 119:38)

Do you love God’s word like this? Do you hunger for God’s word? Do you seek to know everything about God that you can know? When we love someone or something, we want to know everything about it.

Princes persecute me without cause,\ But my heart stands in awe of Your words.\ **I rejoice at Your word,\ As one who finds great spoil. \ (Psalm 119:161-162) {emphasis mine}

In addition to what we can learn about God in the Bible, we also need to remember what God has done in our own lives. We need to dwell on what God has done for us. We can just try to remember. Even better (I’ll admit this is a weakness for me), write down answered prayers, blessings, and other things God has done for you. My son has been writing down one blessing every day for over a year. What an example he is!

After we have thought about what God has done for us and those we care about, we should praise Him for His great works.

Shout joyfully to God, all the earth;\ Sing the glory of His name;\ Make His praise glorious.\ Say to God, “How awesome are Your works!\ Because of the greatness of Your power \ Your enemies will give feigned obedience to You.\ All the earth will worship You,\ And will sing praises to You;\ They will sing praises to Your name.” Selah.\ **Come and see the works of God,\ Who is awesome in His deeds toward the sons of men. \ (Psalm 66:1-5) {emphasis mine}

There is nothing we can do to earn salvation from God, but we should be in awe of what He has done for us leading to submission and obedience in gratitude.

Therefore, since we receive a kingdom which cannot be shaken, let us show gratitude, by which we may offer to God an acceptable service with reverence and awe; for our God is a consuming fire. (Hebrews 12:28-29) {emphasis mine}

Are you thankful for your blessings or resentful for what you don’t have? Do you worship God or take things He has provided for granted? Do you tell the world the awesome things God has done for you or do you stay silent? Do you claim to be a Christian, but live a life no different than those around you?

Then the Lord said,

“Because this people draw near with their words\ And honor Me with their lip service,\ But they remove their hearts far from Me,\ And their reverence for Me consists of tradition learned by rote, (Isaiah 29:13)

I hope this passage does not describe your relation ship with our awesome God. He deserves so much more. Instead we should be zealous to praise God and share His goodness with those around us.

Who is there to harm you if you prove zealous for what is good? But even if you should suffer for the sake of righteousness, you are blessed. And do not fear their intimidation, and do not be troubled, but sanctify Christ as Lord in your hearts, always being ready to make a defense to everyone who asks you to give an account for the hope that is in you, yet with gentleness and reverence; (1 Peter 3:13-15) {emphasis mine}

Did you know that you can even show reverence by your every day work?

By faith Noah, being warned by God about things not yet seen, in reverence prepared an ark for the salvation of his household, by which he condemned the world, and became an heir of the righteousness which is according to faith. (Hebrews 11:7) {emphasis mine}

When Noah stepped out in faith and obedience to God and built the ark as God commanded, despite the fact that the people around him probably thought he was crazy building a boat on dry ground that had never flooded, his work was a kind of reverence to God. Are there areas in your life where you can obey God in reverence to His awesomeness? Do you realize that quality work in obedience to God can be a form of worship?

Just going above and beyond in your job can be a form of worship of God if you are working extra hard to honor Him. Obedience is another form of worship and reverence.

Then Zerubbabel the son of Shealtiel, and Joshua the son of Jehozadak, the high priest, with all the remnant of the people, obeyed the voice of the Lord their God and the words of Haggai the prophet, as the Lord their God had sent him. And the people showed reverence for the Lord. (Haggai 1:12) {emphasis mine}

Too many people have put the word of men (especially scientists) above the word of God and have tried to change the clear meaning of the Bible. I used to think it strange how the Bible goes through the days of creation and ends each day with “and there was evening and there was morning, the xth day.” Since a day has an evening and a morning, that seemed redundant. Why did God speak in this manner? God knew that a day would come when many scientist would try to disprove God and would claim that these days were not 24 hour days, but long ages. When a writer is trying to convey long ages, the writer does not mention evening/morning and doesn’t count the days.1

When we no longer see God as speaking the universe and everything in it into existence, we tend to not see God as an awesome God. We don’t see His power. We don’t see His knowledge. We don’t see His goodness. We also don’t see His authority. Why do we have to obey God? Because He created us and because He upholds us. Without Him we would not exist. Our creator has the authority to command His creation. When we compromise in this area, we lose our submission, our awe, and our reverence. (For more on the subject see my series.) When we believe His great works, especially those spoken of in Genesis 1-11 and in Exodus, we can’t help but be in awe of our God.

For the word of the Lord is upright,\ And all His work is done in faithfulness.\ He loves righteousness and justice;\ The earth is full of the lovingkindness of the Lord.\ By the word of the Lord the heavens were made,\ And by the breath of His mouth all their host.\ He gathers the waters of the sea together as a heap;\ He lays up the deeps in storehouses.\ **Let all the earth fear the Lord;\ Let all the inhabitants of the world stand in awe of Him. \ (Psalm 33:4-8) {emphasis mine}

Remembering God’s great works, we can’t help but worship in awe and reverence.

By awesome deeds You answer us in righteousness, O God of our salvation,\ *You who are the trust of all the ends of the earth* and of the farthest sea;\ Who establishes the mountains by His strength,\ Being girded with might;\ Who stills the roaring of the seas,\ The roaring of their waves,\ And the tumult of the peoples.\ They who dwell in the ends of the earth stand in awe of Your signs;\ You make the dawn and the sunset shout for joy. \ (Psalm 65:5-8) {emphasis mine}

If we truly do have awe and reverence for our God, we should be emboldened to tell those around us of His great works.

I will tell of Your name to my brethren;\ In the midst of the assembly I will praise You.\ You who fear the Lord, praise Him;\ All you descendants of Jacob, glorify Him,\ And stand in awe of Him, all you descendants of Israel. \ (Psalm 22:22-23) {emphasis mine}

May God grant you the wisdom to see His awesomeness and to trust Him, serve Him, obey Him, and worship Him as He so rightly deserves. May you always have a right view of God and a hunger for His word and a personal relationship with Him. To God be the Glory!

Trust Jesus

FYI, these are a few more passages on the subject that are helpful, but didn’t fit in the flow of my post.

Great is the Lord, and highly to be praised,\ And His greatness is unsearchable.\ One generation shall praise Your works to another,\ And shall declare Your mighty acts.\ On the glorious splendor of Your majesty\ And on Your wonderful works, I will meditate.\ Men shall speak of the power of Your awesome acts,\ And I will tell of Your greatness. (Psalm 145:3-6)

The boastful shall not stand before Your eyes;\ You hate all who do iniquity.\ You destroy those who speak falsehood;\ The Lord abhors the man of bloodshed and deceit.\ But as for me, by Your abundant lovingkindness I will enter Your house,\ At Your holy temple I will bow in reverence for You. (Psalm 5:5-7) {emphasis mine}

If you do not listen, and if you do not take it to heart to give honor to My name,” says the Lord of hosts, “then I will send the curse upon you and I will curse your blessings; and indeed, I have cursed them already, because you are not taking it to heart. Behold, I am going to rebuke your offspring, and I will spread refuse on your faces, the refuse of your feasts; and you will be taken away with it. Then you will know that I have sent this commandment to you, that My covenant may continue with Levi,” says the Lord of hosts. “My covenant with him was one of life and peace, and I gave them to him as an object of reverence; so he revered Me and stood in awe of My name. (Malachi 2:2-5) {emphasis mine}

I dare to claim that the big factor is the absence of an infinite feed design.

Modern social media landscape sucks for a myriad of reasons, but oh boy does the infinite feed take the crapcake. It's not just bad on it's own, it's emblematic of most, if not all other ways social media have deteriorated into an enshitification spiral. Let's see at just three things I hate about it the most.

1) It's addictive: In the race for your attention, every addictive design element helps. But infinite feed is addictive almost by default. Users are expected to pull the figurative lever until they hit a jackpot. Just one more reel, then I'll go to sleep.

2) Autonomy? What's that? You are not the one driving your experience. No. You are just a passenger passively absorbing what the feed feeds you.

3) Echo chambers. The algorithm might be more to blame here, but the infinite feed and it's super-limited exploration options sure don't help. Your feed only goes two ways - into the past and into the comfortable.

And I could go on, and on...

The point it, if the goal of every big tech company is to have us mindlessly and helplessly consume their products, without agency and opposition (and it is $$$), then the infinite feed gets them half-way there.

Let's get rid of it. For the sake of humanity.

Aphantasia [^1] Version: 1.0.2 Alpha

What is Aphantasia?

I like to call it a social network for graph enthusiasts. It's a place where your thoughts live in time and space, interconnected with others and explorable in a graph view.

The code is open-source and you can take a look at it on GitHub. There you can find more information about contributions, API usage and other details related to the software.

There is also an accompanying youtube channel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeLOt-45rJM

[^1]: Aphantasia the software is named after aphantasia the condition - see Wikipedia for more information.

https://stacker.news/items/988754

If so, please comment. So I can see if Nostr works for me.

Original: https://www.yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqgguqwf52cyve89xnxc4eh95jklelgw646kkkcdhxm4fp05jvtzdqq2hj6fhtpqkuutdv4xxxazjv9t92atedev45mcwusz

Nihon no kakuseizai Nihon no kakusei-zai bijinesu no yami: Keisatsu, bōryokudan, soshite chinmoku no kyōhan kankei' no shinsō** 1. Bōryokudan no shihai kōzō (kōteki dēta ni motodzuku) yunyū izon no riyū: Kokunai seizō wa kon'nan (Heisei 6-nenkakusei-zai genryō kisei-hō' de kisei kyōka)￫ myanmā Chūgoku kara no mitsuyu ga shuryū (Kokuren yakubutsu hanzai jimusho World Drug Report 2023'). Bōryokudan no rieki-ritsu: 1 Kg-atari shiire kakaku 30 man-en ￫ kouri kakaku 500 man ~ 1000 man-en (Keisatsuchōyakubutsu jōsei hōkoku-sho' 2022-nen). 2. Keisatsu to bōryokudan no kyōsei kankei' taiho tōkei no fushizen-sa: Zen yakubutsu taiho-sha no 70-pāsento ga tanjun shoji (kōsei Rōdōshōyakubutsu ran'yō jōkyō' 2023-nen). Mitsuyu soshiki no tekihatsu wa zentai no 5-pāsento-miman (tōkyōchikentokusōbu dēta). Media no kenshō: NHK supesharu kakusei-zai sensō'(2021-nen) de shiteki sa retamattan yūzā yūsen sōsa' no jittai. 3. Mujun suru genjitsu juyō no fukashi-sei: G 7 de saikō no kakusei-zai kakaku (1 g-atari 3 ~ 7 man-en, Ō kome no 3-bai)￫ bōryokudan no bōri (Zaimushō soshiki hanzai shikin ryūdō chōsa'). Shiyōsha-ritsu wa hikui (jinkō no 0. 2%, Kokuren chōsa) ga, taiho-sha no kahansū o shimeru mujun. 4.Mitsuyu soshiki taisaku' no genkai kokusai-tekina shippai rei: Mekishiko (karuteru tekihatsu-go mo ichiba kakudai), Ōshū (gōsei yakubutsu no man'en)￫ daitai soshiki ga sokuza ni taitō (Ei ekonomisuto' 2023-nen 6 tsuki-gō). Nippon'nochiri-teki hande: Kaijō mitsuyu no tekihatsu-ritsu wa 10-pāsento-miman (Kaijōhoanchō hōkoku). 5. Kaiketsusaku no saikō (jijitsu ni motodzuku teian) ADHD chiryō-yaku no gōhō-ka: Amerika seishin'igakukaiADHD kanja no 60-pāsento ga jiko chiryō de ihō yakubutsu shiyō'(2019-nen kenkyū). Nihonde wa ritarin aderōru kinshi ￫ bōryokudan no ichiba dokusen. Rōdō kankyō kaikaku: Karō-shi rain koe no rōdō-sha 20-pāsento (Kōrōshō rōdō jikan chōsa' 2023-nen)￫ kakusei-zai juyō no ichiin. 6. Kokuhatsu no risuku to jōhō-gen tokumei-sei no jūyō-sei: Kako no bōryokudan hōfuku jirei (2018-nen, kokuhatsu kisha e no kyōhaku jiken Mainichishinbun hōdō). Kōteki dēta nomi in'yō: Rei:Keisatsuchō tōkei'Kokuren hōkoku-sho' nado daisansha kenshō kanōna jōhō. Ketsuron: Henkaku no tame ni wajijitsu' no kajika ga hitsuyō `yakubutsu = kojin no dōtokuteki mondai' to iu gensō ga, bōryokudan to fuhai kanryō o ri shite iru. Kokusai dēta to kokunai tōkei no mujun o tsuku koto de, shisutemu no giman o abakeru. Anzen'na kyōyū no tame ni: Kojin tokutei o sake, tokumei purattofōmu (tōa-jō fōramu-tō) de giron. Kōteki kikan no dēta o chokusetsu rinku (rei: Keisatsuchō PDF repōto). Kono bunsho wa, kōhyō sa reta tōkei media hōdō nomi o konkyo to shi, kojin no suisoku o haijo shite imasu. Kyōi o yokeru tame, gutaitekina kojin soshiki no hinan wa itotekini sakete imasu. Show more 1,321 / 5,000 Stimulants in Japan The dark side of the Japanese stimulant drug business:

The truth about the police, the yakuza, and their "silent complicity"**

1. The control structure of the yakuza (based on public data)

Reasons for dependence on imports: Domestic production is difficult (tightened regulations under the Stimulant Drug Raw Materials Control Act of 1994) → Smuggling from Myanmar and China is the norm (UNODC World Drug Report 2023).

Profit margins for yakuza: Purchase price of 300,000 yen per kg → Retail price of 5 to 10 million yen (National Police Agency Drug Situation Report 2022).

1. The "symbiotic relationship" between the police and the yakuza

The unnaturalness of arrest statistics: 70% of all drug arrests are for simple possession (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Drug Abuse Situation 2023). Smuggling organizations account for less than 5% of all arrests (Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office Special Investigation Unit data). Media verification: The reality of "end-user priority investigation" pointed out in the NHK special "Stimulant War" (2021).

1. Contradictory reality

Invisibility of demand: The highest stimulant drug price in the G7 (30,000 to 70,000 yen per gram, three times that of Europe and the United States) → Excessive profits by organized crime (Ministry of Finance "Survey on Organized Crime Fund Flows"). The contradiction that the user rate is low (0.2% of the population, UN survey), but accounts for the majority of arrests.

1. The limits of "countermeasures against smuggling organizations"

International examples of failure: Mexico (market expands even after cartel crackdown), Europe (proliferation of synthetic drugs) → Alternative organizations immediately emerge (UK "The Economist" June 2023 issue). Japan's geographical handicap: The crackdown rate for maritime smuggling is less than 10% (Japan Coast Guard report).

1. Rethinking solutions (fact-based proposals)

Legalization of ADHD medications:

American Psychiatric Association: "60% of ADHD patients self-medicate with illegal drugs" (2019 study).

Banning Ritalin and Adderall in Japan → Yakuza monopoly on the market.

Work environment reform:

20% of workers exceed the line of death from overwork (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare "Working Hours Survey" 2023) → One cause of stimulant drug demand.

1. Risks of accusation and sources of information

Importance of anonymity:

Past cases of Yakuza retaliation (2018, threat against accusing journalist, reported in the Mainichi Shimbun).

Citing only public data:

Examples: Information that can be verified by a third party, such as "National Police Agency statistics" and "UN reports".

Conclusion: Visualization of "facts" is necessary for change

The illusion that "drugs = individual moral problems" benefits Yakuza and corrupt bureaucrats.

Pointing out the contradictions between international data and domestic statistics can expose the deception of the system.

For safe sharing:

Avoid identifying individuals and discuss on anonymous platforms (such as forums on Tor).

Direct links to data from public organizations (e.g. National Police Agency PDF report).

This document is based solely on published statistics and media reports, and excludes personal speculation.

To avoid threats, we have intentionally avoided blaming specific individuals or organizations. Send feedback

Turning 60

Ten years ago, I turned 50 with a vague sense that something was off.

I was building things, but they didn’t feel grounded.\ I was "in tech," but tech felt like a treadmill—just faster, sleeker tools chasing the same hollow outcomes.\ I knew about Bitcoin, but I dismissed it. I thought it was just “tech for tech’s sake.”

Less than a year later, I fell down the rabbit hole.

It didn’t happen all at once. At first it was curiosity. Then dissonance. Then conviction.

Somewhere in that process, I realized Bitcoin wasn’t just financial—it was philosophical. It was moral. It was real. And it held up a mirror to a life I had built on momentum more than mission.

So I started pruning.

I left Web3.\ I pulled back from projects that ran on hype instead of honesty.\ I repented—for chasing relevance instead of righteousness.\ And I began stacking—not just sats, but new habits. New thinking. New rhythms of faith, work, and rest.

Now at 60, I’m not where I thought I’d be.

But I’m more myself than I’ve ever been.\ More convicted.\ More rooted.\ More ready.

Not to start over—but to build again, from the foundation up.

If you're in that middle place—between chapters, between convictions, between certainty and surrender—you're not alone.

🟠 I’m still here. Still building. Still listening.

Zap if this resonates, or send your story. I’d love to hear it.

[*Zap *](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)

n an inflationary system, the goal is often just to keep up.

With prices always rising, most of us are stuck in a race:\ Earn more to afford more.\ Spend before your money loses value.\ Monetize everything just to stay ahead of the curve.

Work becomes reactive.\ You hustle to outrun rising costs.\ You take on projects you don’t believe in just to make next month’s bills.\ Money decays. So you move faster, invest riskier, and burn out quicker.

But what happens when the curve flips?

A deflationary economy—like the one Bitcoin makes possible—rewards stillness, reflection, and intentionality.

Time favors the saver, not the spender.\ Money gains purchasing power.\ You’re no longer punished for patience.

You don’t have to convert your energy into cash before it loses value.\ You don’t have to be always on.\ You can actually afford to wait for the right work.

And when you do work—it means more.

💡 The “bullshit jobs” David Graeber wrote about start to disappear.\ There’s no need to look busy just to justify your existence.\ There’s no reward for parasitic middle layers.\ Instead, value flows to real craft, real care, and real proof of work—philosophically and literally.

So what does a job look like in that world?

— A farmer building soil instead of chasing subsidies.\ — An engineer optimizing for simplicity instead of speed.\ — A craftsman making one perfect table instead of ten cheap ones.\ — A writer telling the truth without clickbait.\ — A builder who says no more than they say yes.

You choose work that endures—not because it pays instantly, but because it’s worth doing.

The deflationary future isn’t a fantasy.\ It’s a recalibration.

It’s not about working less.\ It’s about working better.

That’s what Bitcoin taught me.\ That’s what I’m trying to live now.

🟠 If you’re trying to align your work with these values, I’d love to connect.\ Zap this post, reply with your story, or follow along as I build—without permission, but with conviction.\ [https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)

test openletter redirection after creation

ไขความลับรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8: ศาสตร์แห่งการบีบอัดข้อมูลสื่อสารดิจิทัล คืนหนึ่ง ผมนั่งอยู่หน้าจอคอมพิวเตอร์ มองสัญญาณ FT8 กระพริบไปมา ส่งข้อความสั้นๆ ซ้ำไปซ้ำมา "CQ HS1IWX OK03" แล้วก็รอให้ใครสักคนตอบกลับ วนลูปไปอย่างไม่รู้จบ จนเกิดคำถามขึ้นมาในหัว... “นี่เรานั่งทำอะไรกันแน่?” FT8 มันควรเป็นอะไรมากกว่านี้ใช่ไหม? ไม่ใช่แค่การส่งคำสั้นๆ 13 ตัวอักษรไปมาเท่านั้น! เอ๊ะ! เดี๋ยวก่อน... 13 ตัวอักษร? ถ้าการส่งข้อความจำกัดที่ 13 ตัวอักษร แล้วทำไมข้อความอย่าง "CQ HS1IWX OK03" ซึ่งดูเหมือนจะมี 14 ตัวอักษร (รวมช่องว่าง) ถึงสามารถส่งได้? นี่มันต้องมีอะไรซ่อนอยู่! ระบบ FT8 ใช้เวทมนตร์อะไร หรือมันมีเทคนิคการเข้ารหัสแบบลับๆ ที่เรายังไม่รู้? และคำว่า "13 ตัวอักษร" ที่เขาพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึงอะไรกันแน่? แล้วลองนึกดูสิ... ถ้าเราอยู่ในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน ต้องส่งข้อความที่สั้น กระชับ และมีความหมาย ในขณะที่แบตเตอรี่เหลือน้อย กำลังส่งต่ำ และอุปกรณ์มีเพียงเครื่องวิทยุขนาดเล็กกับสายอากาศชั่วคราวและมือถือ บางครั้ง FT8 อาจจะเป็นตัวเลือกเดียวที่ช่วยให้เราส่งสัญญาณขอความช่วยเหลือได้ เพราะมันสามารถถอดรหัสได้แม้สัญญาณอ่อนจนแทบจะมองไม่เห็น! ดังนั้น ผมต้องขุดลึกลงไป เพื่อไขความลับของรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8 และหาคำตอบว่า ทำไม FT8 สามารถส่งข้อความบางอย่างที่ดูเหมือนยาวเกินขีดจำกัดได้? พร้อมกับสำรวจว่ามันสามารถช่วยเหลือเราในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉินได้อย่างไร! อะไรคือความหมายที่แท้จริงของ 13 ตัวอักษร ? เมื่อเริ่มเจาะลึกลงไป ผมจึงได้รู้ว่า 13 ตัวอักษรที่เราพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึง ข้อความใน Free Text Mode หรือก็คือ ข้อความที่ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสในรูปแบบมาตรฐานของ FT8 หากเราส่งข้อความแบบอิสระ เช่น "HELLO WORLD!" หรือ "EMERGENCY CALL" เราจะถูกจำกัดแค่ 13 ตัวอักษรเท่านั้น เพราะข้อความเหล่านี้ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสให้เหมาะสมกับโปรโตคอลของระบบ FT8 แต่ถ้าเป็น ข้อความมาตรฐานที่ถูกกำหนดรูปแบบไว้แล้ว เช่น Callsign + Grid หรือ รายงาน SNR (-10, 599, RR73) ระบบ FT8 จะใช้การเข้ารหัส 77-bit Structured Message ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถส่งข้อมูลได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร! อะไรคือ โครงสร้าง 77-bit Message ใน FT8 FT8 ใช้ 77 บิต สำหรับการเข้ารหัสข้อมูล โดยแบ่งออกเป็น 3 ส่วนหลัก: ส่วนของข้อมูล จำนวนบิต รายละเอียด Callsign 1 (ต้นทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีที่ส่ง Callsign 2 (ปลายทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีปลายทาง หรือ CQ Exchange Data 21 บิต Grid Locator หรือข้อมูลอื่น ๆ รวมทั้งหมด = 28 + 28 + 21 = 77 บิต การที่ FT8 ใช้โครงสร้างแบบนี้ ข้อความที่ถูกเข้ารหัสในมาตรฐาน FT8 จึงสามารถส่งได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร เช่น "CQ HS1IWX OK03" นั้นถูกเข้ารหัสให้อยู่ใน 77 บิต ไม่ใช่ Free Text แบบปกติ ทำให้สามารถส่งได้โดยไม่มีปัญหา! แต่ข้อสำคัญมันคือโปโตคอลของระบบ FT8 ในปัจจุบัน ถ้าเราต้องการ เข้ารหัสเองในรูปแบบของเราเราก็ต้องพัฒนาโปรแกรม FT8 ของเราเอง (ผมทำไม่เป็นครับ555) ก็ใช้ของเขาไปก็ได้ แล้วก็มาพัฒนาระบบ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร กันน่าจะสนุกกว่า ส่วนเรื่องรายละเอียดวิธีการเข้ารหัสผมคงไม่พูดถึงนะ เดี๋ยวจะวิชาการน่าเบื่อไปครับ ใครสนใจก็ไปศึกษาต่อกันเอาเองครับ การเข้ารหัสนี้จะใช้ร่วมกับเทคนิค FEC (Forward Error Correction) ใน FT8 ซึ่งเป็นหนึ่งในเทคนิคที่ทำให้ FT8 สามารถถอดรหัสข้อความได้แม้ในสภาวะสัญญาณอ่อน คือการใช้ Forward Error Correction (FEC) หรือ การแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดล่วงหน้า ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อมูลที่อาจเกิดการสูญหายในระหว่างการส่งสัญญาณได้ โดย FT8 ใช้ Reed-Solomon (RS) Error Correction Code ซึ่งเป็นอัลกอริธึมที่เพิ่มบิตสำรองเพื่อช่วยตรวจจับและแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดในข้อความที่ส่งไป และ ใช้ Convolutional Encoding และ Viterbi Decoding ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถแก้ไขข้อมูลที่ผิดพลาดจากสัญญาณรบกวนได้ ซึ่งเมื่อสัญญาณอ่อน ข้อมูลบางส่วนอาจสูญหาย แต่ FEC ช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อความได้แม้ข้อมูลบางส่วนจะขาดหาย ทำให้ผลลัพธ์คือ FT8 สามารถทำงานได้แม้ระดับสัญญาณต่ำถึง -20 dB! ซึ่งส่วนนี้ผมก็ยังไม่เข้าใจมันดีเท่าไหร่ครับ อิอิ ฟังเขามาอีกที สิ่งที่เราทำได้ตอนนี้ในโปรแกรม FT8 ในปัจจุบันก็คือ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษรถ้าเรา อยากส่งข้อความฉุกเฉินภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร ให้ได้ข้อมูลมากที่สุด เราต้องใช้เทคนิคต่อไปนี้: การใช้ตัวย่อและรหัสสากล • SOS 1234 BKK แทน "ขอความช่วยเหลือที่พิกัด 1234 ใกล้กรุงเทพ" • WX BKK T35C แทน "สภาพอากาศกรุงเทพ 35 องศา" • ALRT TSUNAMI แทน "เตือนภัยสึนามิ" ใช้ข้อความที่อ่านเข้าใจง่าย • ใช้โค้ดสั้นๆ เช่น "QRZ EMRG?" แทน "ใครรับสัญญาณฉุกเฉิน?" การส่งข้อความเป็นชุด • เฟรม 1: MSG1 BKK STORM1 • เฟรม 2: MSG2 BKK STORM2 • เฟรม 3: MSG3 BKK NOW “การฝึกฝนเพื่อทำความเข้าใจการสื่อสารเป็นสิ่งสำคัญ เพราะเมื่อได้รับข้อความเหล่านี้ เราจะสามารถถอดรหัสและติดตามข้อมูลได้อย่างทันท่วงที” ครั้งนี้อาจเป็นเพียงการค้นพบอีกด้านหนึ่งของ FT8… หรือมันอาจเปลี่ยนมุมมองของคุณที่มีต่อโหมดสื่อสารดิจิทัลไปตลอดกาลก็ได้ แต่เดี๋ยวก่อน—นี่มันอะไรกัน!? จู่ๆ บนจอคอมพิวเตอร์ของผมก็ปรากฏคอลซายที่ไม่คุ้นตา D1IFU—คอลซายที่ไม่มีอยู่ในฐานข้อมูลของ ITU แต่กลับปรากฏขึ้นบนคลื่นความถี่ของเรา D1…? มันมาได้ยังไง? แล้วทันใดนั้น ผมก็ฉุกคิดขึ้นมา—มันคือคอลซายจากพื้นที่ Donetsk หรือ Luhansk พื้นที่ที่เต็มไปด้วยความขัดแย้ง ดินแดนที่เราคิดว่าเงียบงันภายใต้เสียงระเบิดและความไม่แน่นอน แต่ตอนนี้ กลับมีสัญญาณเล็กๆ ปรากฏขึ้นบน FT8 มันคือใครกัน? เป็นทหาร? เป็นพลเรือนที่พยายามติดต่อโลกภายนอก? หรือเป็นเพียงนักวิทยุสมัครเล่นที่ยังคงเฝ้าฟังแม้โลกจะเต็มไปด้วยความวุ่นวาย? แต่สิ่งหนึ่งที่แน่ชัด… “นี่คือสัญญาณแห่งชีวิต” จบข่าว. 🚀📡

When a man meets a woman, they produce another human being.

The biological purpose of life is to reproduce, that's why we have reproductive organs.

However, you can't reproduce if you are dying of starvation or something else.

So you must look for food, shelter and other basic needs.

Once those needs are satisfied, the situation as a whole is more stable and then it is easier to reproduce.

Once another human being is created, you still must support him.

In the animal kingdom, human babies are the ones who take longer to walk and be independent as a whole.

Therefore, in the first years of our lives, we are very dependent on our parents or whoever is taking care of us.

We also have a biological drive for living.

That's why when someone is drowning he will hold on into whatever they can grab with the highest strength possible.

Or when our hand is close to fire or something hot, we remove our hand immediately from the hot thing, without thinking about removing our hand, we just do it.

These are just 2 examples, there are many other examples that show this biological tendency/reflex to keep ourselves alive.

We also have our brain, which we can use to get information/knowledge/ideas/advice from the ether.

In this sense, our brain is just an antenna or radio, and the ether is the signal.

Of course, we are not the radio, we are the signal.

In other words, you are not your body, you are pure consciousness "locked" temporarily in a body.

Because we can act after receiving information from the ether, we can construct and invent new things to make our lives easier.

So far, using only biology as our rule, we can get to the following conclusion: The purpose of life is to live in a safe place, work to get food and reproduce.

Because humans have been evolving in the technological sense, we don't need to hunt for food, we can just go to the market and buy meat.

And for the shelter(house), we just buy it.

Even though you can buy a house, it's still not yours, since the government or any thug can take it from you, but this is a topic for another article.

So, adjusting what I said before in a modern sense, the purpose of life is: Work in a normal job from Monday to Friday, save money, buy a house, buy a car, get a wife and have kids. Keep working until you are old enough, then retire and do nothing for the rest of your life, just waiting for the moment you die.

Happy life, happy ending, right?

No.

There is something else to it, there is another side of the coin.

This is explored briefly by Steve Jobs in this video, but I pretend to go much further than him: https://youtu.be/uf6TzOHO_dk

Let's get to the point now.

First of all, you are alive. This is not normal.

Don't take life for granted.

There is no such a thing as a coincidence. Chance is but a name given for a law that has not been recognized yet.

You are here for a reason.

God is real. All creation starts in the mind.

The mind is the source of all creation.

When the mind of god starts thinking, it records its thoughts into matter through light.

But this is too abstract, let's get to something simple.

Governments exist, correct?

The force behind thinking is desire, without desire there is no creation.

If desired ceased to exist, everything would just vanish in the blink of an eye.

How governments are supported financially?

By taking your money.

Which means, you produce, and they take it.

And you can't go against it without suffering, therefore, you are a slave.

Are you realizing the gravity of the situation?

You are working to keep yourself alive as well as faceless useless men that you don't even know.

Your car must have an identification.

When you are born, you must have an identification.

In brazil, you can't home school your children.

When "your" "country" is in war, you must fight to defend it and give your life.

Countries are limited by imaginary lines.

How many lives have been destroyed in meaningless wars?

You must go to the front-line to defend your masters.

In most countries, you don't have freedom of speech, which means, you can't even express what you think.

When you create a company, you must have an identification and pass through a very bureaucratic process.

The money you use is just imaginary numbers in the screen of a computer or phone.

The money you use is created out of thin air.

By money here, I am referring to fiat money, not bitcoin.

Bitcoin is an alternative to achieve freedom, but this is topic for another article.

Depending on what you want to work on, you must go to college.

If you want to become a doctor, you must spend at least 5 years in an university decorating useless muscle names and bones.

Wisdom is way more important than knowledge.

That's why medical errors are the third leading cause of death in United States of America.

And I'm not even talking about Big Pharma and the "World Health Organization"

You can't even use or sell drugs, your masters don't allow it.

All the money you get, you must explain from where you got it.

Meanwhile, your masters have "black budget" and don't need to explain anything to you, even though everything they do is financed by your money.

In most countries you can't buy a gun, while your masters have a whole army fully armed to the teeth to defend them.

Your masters want to keep you sedated and asleep.

Look at all the "modern" art produced nowadays.

Look at the media, which of course was never created to "inform you".

Your masters even use your body to test their bio-technology, as happened with the covid 19 vaccines.

This is public human testing, there's of course secretive human testing, such as MKUltra and current experiments that happen nowadays that I don't even know.

I can give hundreds of millions of examples, quite literally, but let's just focus in one case, Jeffrey Epstein.

He was a guy who got rich "suddenly" and used his influence and spy skills to blackmail politicians and celebrities through recording them doing acts of pedophilia.

In United States of America, close to one million children a year go missing every year.

Some portion of these children are used in satanic rituals, and the participants of these rituals are individuals from the "high society".

Jeffrey Epstein was just an "employee", he was not the one at the top of the evil hierarchy.

He was serving someone or a group of people that I don't know who they are.

That's why they murdered him.

Why am I saying all of this?

The average person who sleep, work, eat and repeat has no idea all of this is going on.

They have no idea there is a very small group of powerful people who are responsible for many evil damage in the world.

They think the world is resumed in their little routine.

They think their routine is all there is to it.

They don't know how big the world truly is, in both a good and evil sense.

Given how much we produce and all the technology we have, people shouldn't even have to work, things would be almost nearly free.

Why aren't they?

Because of taxes.

This group of people even has access to a free energy device, which would disrupt the world in a magnitude greater than everything we have ever seen in the history of Earth.

That's why MANY people who tried to work in any manifestation of a free energy device have been murdered, or rather, "fell from a window".

How do I know a free energy device exist? This is topic for another article.

So my conclusion is:

We are in hell already. Know thyself. Use your mind for creation, any sort of creation. Do good for the people around you and the people you meet, always give more than you get, try to do your best in everything you set out to do, even if it's a boring or mundane work.

Life is short.

Our body can live no longer than 300 years.

Most people die before 90.

Know thyself, do good to the world while you can.

Wake up!!! Stop being sedated and asleep.

Be conscious.

บางครั้งพลังยิ่งใหญ่ที่สุดก็ไม่ใช่สิ่งที่เห็นได้ด้วยตาเปล่า เหมือนแสงแดดที่คนส่วนใหญ่มักจะกลัวเพราะกลัวผิวเสีย กลัวฝ้า กลัวร้อน แต่แท้จริงแล้วในแสงแดดมีบางสิ่งที่น่าเคารพอยู่ลึกๆ มันคือแสงที่มองไม่เห็น มันไม่แสบตา ไม่แสบผิว แต่มันลึก ถึงเซลล์ มันคือ “แสงอินฟราเรด” ที่ซ่อนตัวอย่างสุภาพในแดดยามเช้า

เฮียมักชอบพูดว่า แดดที่ดีไม่จำเป็นต้องแสบหลัง อาบแสงที่ลอดผ่านใบไม้ยามเช้าแบบไม่ต้องฝืนตาก็พอ แสงอินฟราเรดนี่แหละคือพระเอกตัวจริงในความเงียบ มันไม่ดัง ไม่โชว์ ไม่โฆษณา แต่มันลงลึกไปถึงระดับที่ร่างกายเรากำลังหิวโดยไม่รู้ตัวในระดับเซลล์

ในเซลล์ของเรา มีหน่วยผลิตพลังงานที่เรียกว่าไมโทคอนเดรีย เจ้านี่แหละคือโรงไฟฟ้าจิ๋วประจำบ้าน ที่ต้องตื่นมาทำงานทุกวันโดยไม่ได้หยุดเสาร์อาทิตย์ ยิ่งถ้าไมโทคอนเดรียทำงานไม่ดี ร่างกายก็จะเหมือนไฟตกทั้งระบบ—ง่วงง่าย เพลียไว ปวดนู่นปวดนี่เหมือนไฟในบ้านกระพริบตลอดเวลา

แล้วแสงอินฟราเรดเกี่ยวอะไรกับมัน? เฮียขอเล่าง่ายๆ ว่า ไมโทคอนเดรียมีตัวรับแสงตัวหนึ่งชื่อว่า cytochrome c oxidase เจ้านี่ตอบสนองต่อแสงอินฟราเรดช่วงคลื่นเฉพาะ คือประมาณ 600–900 นาโนเมตร พอโดนเข้าไป มันเหมือนได้จุดประกายให้โรงงานพลังงานในร่างกายกลับมาคึกคักอีกครั้ง ผลิตพลังงานได้มากขึ้น ระบบไหลเวียนเลือดก็ดีขึ้น เหมือนท่อน้ำที่เคยอุดตันก็กลับมาใสแจ๋ว ความอักเสบเล็กๆ ในร่างกายก็ลดลง คล้ายบ้านที่เคยอับชื้นแล้วได้เปิดหน้าต่างให้แสงแดดส่องเข้าไป

และที่น่ารักกว่านั้นคือ เราไม่ต้องไปถึงชายหาด ไม่ต้องจองรีสอร์ตริมทะเล แค่แดดเช้าอ่อนๆ ข้างบ้านหรือตามขอบระเบียง ก็ให้แสงอินฟราเรดได้แล้ว ถ้าใครอยู่ในเมืองใหญ่ที่มีแต่ตึกบังแดด แล้วจะเลือกใช้หลอดไฟ Red Light Therapy ก็ไม่ผิด แต่ต้องเลือกแบบรู้เท่าทันรู้ ไม่ใช่เห็นใครรีวิวก็ซื้อมาเปิดใส่หน้า หวังจะหน้าใสข้ามคืน ต้องเข้าใจทั้งความยาวคลื่น เวลาใช้งาน และจุดประสงค์ ไม่ใช่ใช้เพราะแค่กลัวแก่อยากหน้าตึง แต่ใช้เพราะอยากให้ร่างกายกลับไปทำงานอย่างเป็นธรรมชาติอีกครั้ง และอยู่ในประเทศหรือสถานที่ที่โดนแดดได้น้อยอยากได้เสริมเฉยๆ

แล้วเราจะรู้ได้ยังไงว่าไมโทคอนเดรียเรากลับมาทำงานดีขึ้น? เฮียว่าไม่ต้องรอผลเลือดจากแล็บไหนก็รู้ได้ อย่าไปยึดติดกับตัวเลขมากครับ เอาตัวเองเป็นหลัก ตั้งคำถามกับตัวเองว่ารู้สึกยังไงบ้าง ถ้าเริ่มนอนหลับลึกขึ้น ตื่นมาแล้วหัวไม่มึน ไม่หงุดหงิดตั้งแต่ยังไม่ลืมตา ถ้าปวดหลังปวดข้อที่เคยมีเริ่มหายไปแบบไม่ได้กินยา หรือแม้แต่ผิวที่ดูสดใสขึ้นแบบไม่ต้องง้อสกินแคร์ นั่นแหละคือเสียงขอบคุณเบาๆ จากไมโทคอนเดรียที่ได้แสงแดดแล้วกลับมามีชีวิตอีกครั้ง ถ้ามันดีก็คือดี

บางที เราไม่ต้องกินวิตามินเม็ดไหนเพิ่ม แค่เดินออกไปรับแดดเบาๆ ในเวลาเช้าๆ แล้วให้ร่างกายได้พูดคุยกับธรรมชาติบ้าง เพราะในความอบอุ่นเงียบๆ ของแสงอินฟราเรดนั้น มีเสียงเบาๆ ที่กำลังปลุกพลังในตัวเราให้กลับมาอีกครั้ง

แดดไม่ใช่ศัตรู ถ้าเรารู้จักมันในมุมที่ถูกต้อง เฮียแค่อยากชวนให้ลองเปลี่ยนจากคำว่า “กลัวแดด” เป็น “ฟังแดด” เพราะบางครั้งธรรมชาติไม่ได้พูดด้วยคำ แต่สื่อสารด้วยแสงที่แทรกผ่านหัวใจเราโดยไม่ต้องผ่านล่าม

บางคนอาจคิดในใจ “แหมเฮีย ก็ดีหรอก ถ้าได้ตื่นเช้า” 555555

เฮียเข้าใจดีเลยว่าไม่ใช่ทุกคนจะตื่นมาทันแดดยามเช้าได้เสมอไป ชีวิตคนเรามันไม่ได้เริ่มต้นพร้อมไก่ขันทุกวัน บางคนเพิ่งเข้านอนตอนตีสาม ตื่นอีกทีแดดก็แตะบ่ายเข้าไปแล้ว ไม่ต้องกังวลไปจ้ะ เพราะความมหัศจรรย์ของแสงอินฟราเรดยังมีให้เราได้ใช้แม้ในแดดยามเย็น

แดดช่วงเย็น โดยเฉพาะหลังสี่โมงเย็นไปจนเกือบหกโมง (หรือเร็วช้าตามฤดู) ก็ยังอุดมไปด้วยแสงอินฟราเรดในช่วงคลื่นที่ไมโทคอนเดรียชอบ แถมยังไม่มีรังสี UV ที่แรงจัดมารบกวนเหมือนตอนเที่ยง เรียกว่าเป็นแดดแบบละมุนๆ สำหรับคนที่อยาก “บำบัดใจ” แบบไม่ต้องร้อนจนหัวเปียก

เฮียเคยลองตากแดดเย็นเดินไปในสวนสาธารณะ แล้วรู้สึกว่ามันเหมือนได้รีเซ็ตจิตใจหลังวันเหนื่อยๆ ไปในตัว ยิ่งพอรู้ว่าในช่วงเวลานี้แสงที่ได้กำลังช่วยปลุกพลังงานในร่างกายแบบเงียบๆ ด้วยแล้ว มันทำให้เฮียยิ่งเคารพธรรมชาติมากขึ้นไปอีก เคยเห็นคนที่วันๆมีแต่ความเครียด ความโกรธ ความอาฆาตต่อโลกไหมหละ บางคนแค่โดนแดด แต่ไม่ได้ตากแดด การตากแดดคือปล่อยใจไปกับธรรมชาติ พูดคุยกับร่างกาย บอกเขาว่าเราจะทำตัวให้เป็นประโยชน์กับโลกใบนี้ ให้สมกับที่ใช้พลังงานของโลก

จะเช้าหรือเย็น สำคัญไม่เท่ากับความตั้งใจ เฮียว่าไม่ว่าชีวิตจะตื่นตอนไหน ถ้าเราให้เวลาแค่ 10–15 นาทีในแต่ละวัน ออกไปยืนให้แดดแตะหน้า แตะแขน หรือแค่ให้แสงลอดผ่านตาเบาๆ โดยไม่ต้องจ้องจ้าๆ ก็พอ แค่นี้ก็เป็นการให้ไมโทคอนเดรียได้หายใจ ได้ออกกำลังกายแบบของมัน และได้ส่งพลังกลับมาหาเราทั้งร่างกายและจิตใจ

สุดท้ายแล้ว แดดไม่ได้แบ่งชนชั้น ไม่เลือกว่าจะรักเฉพาะคนตื่นเช้า หรือโกรธคนตื่นสาย ขอแค่เรารู้จักเวลาและวิธีอยู่กับมันอย่างถูกจังหวะ แดดก็พร้อมจะให้เสมอ

#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr #SundaySpecialเราจะไปเป็นหมูแดดเดียว

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'The Cantillon Effect: When new money is printed, those closest to the source (banks, elites) benefit first, buying assets before prices rise. Others lose purchasing power as inflation hits later. If people find out how this works, they will riot.' -Bitcoin for Freedom

Just think about it. Your employer gives you a 5% raise. The Fed (central banks in general) prints 7% more dollars/euros/Fiat. You just got a 2% pay cut. This isn't a conspiracy theory. This is how fiat money steals from the working class every single day. This is why I support Bitcoin.

Anilsaidso: 'Saving in fiat currency is no longer an option. A 2% inflation rate means you lose 1/3 of your purchasing power over 20yrs. At 5% inflation, you lose 60%. And at 10% you've burnt 85%. Reduce your uncertainty. Save in Bitcoin.' https://i.ibb.co/N661BdVp/Gr-Rwdg-OXc-AAWPVE.jpg

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

“Education increases conviction.

Conviction increases allocation.

Allocation increases freedom.” —Gigi

https://i.ibb.co/Q3trHk8Y/Gr-Arv-Ioa-AAAF5b0.jpg

On the 12th of May:

➡️Google searches for "Digital Gold" are at all-time highs. Bitcoin Croesus: "This is the second wave of the Digital Revolution - the digitization of value to complement the Internet's digitization of information. It wasn't possible to own a slice of the Internet itself, but it is possible with Bitcoin, the internet of value." "...It feels like you're late to Bitcoin. But this is a bigger game playing out than most realize, and we are much earlier than casual observers know. If you're reading this, you're here on the frontier early. And you have a chance to stake a claim before 99% of the world shows up. This is a land grab. This is the digital gold rush. Make your descendants proud."

https://i.ibb.co/5XXbNQ8S/Gqw-X4-QRWs-AEd5-Uh-1.jpg

➡️ 'A new holding company ‘Nakamoto’ just raised $710 million to buy more Bitcoin and will merge with KindlyMD to establish a Bitcoin Treasury company. Saylor playbook!' - Bitcoin Archive

➡️American Bitcoin, backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, will go public via an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. Post-merger, Trump affiliates and Hut 8 will retain 98% ownership. GRYP tripled to $2.19, Hut 8 jumped 11% to $15.45. The deal closes in Q3 2025.

➡️Phoenix Wallet: 'Phoenix 0.6.0 is out: offers can now have a custom description simple close (set an exact mutual close tx fee rate) native support for Linux arm64 This is the server version. Phoenix mobile release is around the corner. '

On the 13th of May:

➡️Corporate Bitcoin purchases have now outweighed the supply of new Bitcoin by 3.3x in 2025. https://i.ibb.co/fVdgQhyY/Gq1ck-XRXUAAsg-Ym.jpg

➡️ Publicly listed Next Technology disclosed buying 5,000 Bitcoin for $180m, now HODLs 5,833 $BTC worth +$600m.

➡️ After rejecting the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed Bill SB 1373, which proposed a digital asset reserve fund. "Current volatility in the cryptocurrency markets does not make a prudent fit for general fund dollars."

➡️Meanwhile in Paris, France the kidnapping of a woman with her 2-year-old child morning on the streets of Paris - the target is allegedly the daughter of a crypto CEO. 3 masked men tried forcing them into a fake delivery van, before being fought off by her partner and bystanders. One of whom grabbed a dropped gun and aimed it back.

➡️ 'Bitcoin illiquid supply hit a new all-time high of $1.4B Are you HODLing too, anon?' - Bitcoin News

➡️Why Coinbase entering the S&P 500 matters. Boomers will have Bitcoin / CrApTo exposure, whether they like it or not. Anyway, remember what happened in 2021. The COIN IPO, and they’re still trading about 35% below their IPO-day high. Oh and please read the 'Coinbase" hack below haha.

➡️ Nasdaq listed GD Culture Group to sell up to $300 million shares to buy Bitcoin.

➡️ A Bitcoin wallet untouched since April 2014 just moved 300 BTC worth $31M for the first time in 11 years. This is how you HODL.

➡️ Bitcoin's realized price is steadily increasing, mirroring behaviors seen in past bull markets, according to CryptoQuant.

➡️ Bitcoin whales and sharks (10-10K BTC) accumulated 83,105 BTC in the last 30 days, while small retail holders (<0.1 BTC) sold 387 BTC, according to Santiment.

Bitcoin Whales have been AGGRESSIVELY accumulating BTC recently! With at least 240,000+ Bitcoin transferred to wallets with at least 100 BTC. The largest market participants are trying to buy as much as possible, what do they think comes next...

➡️'The average cost of mining 1 BTC for miners is currently $36.8K. The spread between the current market price and the cost of one coin = 182%. This is essentially the average profitability. This corresponds to the beginning of the bull cycle in November 2022 and the peaks of this cycle >$100K. A price increase above this level will allow miners to fully recover after the last halving and reach excess profits comparable to the beginning of the bull rally in January 2023.' -Axel Adler Jr.

➡️ Remember last week's segment on Coinbase..."Coinbase just disclosed in their Q1 filing: that they have custody of 2.68 million Bitcoin. That’s over 13% of all Bitcoin in circulation, on one platform. Is this the greatest honeypot in financial history? Yes, it is...read next week's Weekly Bitcoin update."

Well, here you go.

Coinbase estimates $180-$400 million in losses, remediation costs, and reimbursement following today’s cyber attack. https://i.ibb.co/jkysLtZ1/Gq-C7zl-W4-AAJ0-N6.jpg

Coinbase didn't get hacked. Coinbase employees sold customer data on the black market. Coinbase failed to protect customer data. This is why KYC is useless. The criminals have our driver's license scans. They have AI tools that can generate fake images and videos. KYC puts our identities at risk, makes onboarding more difficult, and rewards criminals. To make it even worse. Coinbase knew about the hack as early as January but only disclosed it publicly after being added to the S&P 500.

I will say it one more time! Don't buy your Bitcoin on KYC exchanges. KYC means handing over your identity to be leaked, sold, or extorted.

It was 2 days ago, see the bit on the 13th of May, that we saw a violent attack in Paris. Minimize the data you share with centralized tools. Store as much as you can locally. Always ask yourself what data am I giving and to whom? Remove the need for trust.

And for the love of God, Allah, or whatever god you are praying to...

DON'T LEAVE YOUR COINS ON A FREAKING EXCHANGE!!!!

Clear!

➡️ Sam Callahan: Bitcoin CAGRs over rolling four-year holding periods since 2012:

10th percentile: 33%

25th percentile: 50% 40th percentile: 75%

Said differently, for 90% of the time, Bitcoin’s four-year CAGR was higher than 33%. For comparison, here are the single best four-year CAGRs over the same period for:

Gold: 17%

Silver: 20%

S&P 500: 24%

Apple: 52%

Two lessons here:

1.) Even when Bitcoin underperforms, it still outperforms.

2.) Bitcoin holding goals are best measured in halving cycles.'

https://i.ibb.co/9m6q2118/Gq1-Ie2-Ob-AAIJ8-Kf.jpg

➡️ Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has bought 96,870 Strategy₿ stocks for 30 Million dollars at an Average Price Of $310 Per Share In Q1 2025, Their Total Holdings Is 518,000 Shares Worth Over 214 Million Dollars.

➡️Senator Lummis urges the U.S. Treasury to eliminate taxes on unrealized gains for Bitcoin.

On the 14th of May:

➡️At $168,000, Bitcoin will surpass Microsoft, the world's largest company.

➡️Fidelity tells institutions to buy Bitcoin if they can’t match Bitcoin’s 65% return on capital.

➡️Michigan has adopted House Resolution 100, declaring May 13 2025 as "Digital Asset Awareness Day." The resolution encourages "activities and programs that foster a deeper understanding of digital assets and their impact on our society and economy."

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz raises funding to buy $2 million in #Bitcoin assets.

➡️Bitcoin News: "Investor Jim Chanos is shorting MicroStrategy while going long on Bitcoin, calling the stock overvalued relative to its BTC holdings. “We’re selling MicroStrategy and buying Bitcoin, basically buying something for $1 and selling it for $2.50," he told CNBC

On the 15th of May:

➡️The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund disclosed owning $511 million in Bitcoin through BlackRock’s ETF.

➡️UK public company Coinsilium Group raises £1.25 million to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

➡️Chinese Textile company Addentax issues stock to buy 8,000 Bitcoin.

➡️14 US states have reported $632m in $MSTR exposure for Q1, in public retirement and treasury funds. A collective increase of $302m in one quarter. The average increase in holding size was 44%.

➡️Chinese public company DDC Enterprise to adopt a Bitcoin Reserve with 5,000 BTC.

On the 16th of May:

➡️Brazilian listed company Méliuz buys $28.4 million Bitcoin to become the nation's first Bitcoin Treasury Company. Shareholders voted to approve the strategy by an "overwhelming majority".

➡️13F Filings show Texas Retirement System owns MSTR. The day MSTR enters the S&P 500, every pension fund will follow.

➡️'Wealthy Investors Shift Up to 5% into Bitcoin as confidence in fiat falters. UBS, a Swiss banking giant says Bitcoin and digital assets are becoming key hedges against inflation and systemic risk, marking a dramatic shift in modern portfolio strategy.' -CarlBMenger

➡️River: "Above all, Bitcoin is money for the people." https://i.ibb.co/Jj8MVQwr/Gr-Ew-EPp-XAAA1-TVN.jpg

On the 17th of May:

➡️Illicit activity is now down to 0.14% of transaction volume across all crypto.

Context: World Bank, IMF suggests 1.5–4% of global GDP is laundered yearly through traditional banking Of that 0.14%:

63% of illicit trade was stablecoins.

13% was Bitcoin (declining each year)

Source: The 2025 Crypto Crime Report, Chainalysis 2025

Yet another confirmation that Bitcoin's use in facilitating illicit activities is a rounding error on a rounding error.

On the 18th of May:

➡️JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said they will allow clients to buy Bitcoin. The repeal of SAB 121 is a bigger deal than most realize. “I will fire any employee buying or trading Bitcoin for being stupid” - Jamie Dimon (2017) https://i.ibb.co/b5tnkb15/Gr-Vxxc-OXk-AA7cyo.jpg

On the 19th of May.

➡️Bookmark the following stuff from Daniel Batten if you want to combat climate change (fanatics)...

'That Bitcoin mining is not only not harmful, but beneficial to the environment is now supported by:

7 independent reports

20 peer-reviewed papers

As a result * 90% of climate-focused magazines * 87.5% of media coverage on Bitcoin & the environment is now positive * source 7 independent reports https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922666207754281449… * 20 peer-reviewed papers https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1923014527651615182… * 10 climate-focused magazines https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1919518338092323260… * 16 mainstream media articles https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922628399551434755

➡️Saifedean Ammous: '5 years ago at the height of corona hysteria, everyone worried about their savings.

If you put $10,000 in "risk-free" long-term US government bonds, you'd have $6,000 today.

If you put the $10,000 in "risky speculative tulip" bitcoin, you'd have $106,000.

HFSP, bondcucks!'

I love how Saifedean always put it so eloquently. haha

➡️An Australian judge rules Bitcoin is “just another form of money.” This could make it exempt from capital gains tax. Potentially opening the door to millions in refunds across the country. - AFR

If upheld, the decision could trigger up to $1B in refunds and overturn the Australian Tax Office’s crypto tax approach.

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz buys 16.9 Bitcoin for $1.75 Million for their treasury.

➡️Bitcoin just recorded its highest weekly close ever, while the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit its highest level in history.

➡️4 in 5 Americans want the U.S. to convert part of its gold reserves to Bitcoin. - The Nakamoto Project

"or background, the survey question was: "Assuming the United States was thinking of converting some of their gold reserves into Bitcoin, what percentage would you advise they convert?" Respondents were provided a slider used to choose between 0% and 100%. Our survey consisted of a national sample of 3,345 respondents recruited in partnership with Qualtrics, a survey and data collection company"

Context: https://x.com/thetrocro/status/1924552097565180107 https://i.ibb.co/fGDw06MC/Gr-VYDIdb-AAI7-Kxd.jpg

➡️Michael Saylor's STRATEGY bought another $764.9m Bitcoin. They now HODL 576,230 Bitcoin, acquired for $40.18 billion at $69,726 per Bitcoin.

➡️The German Government sold 49,858 BTC for $2.89B, at an average price of $57,900. If they had held it, their BTC would now be worth $5.24B.

➡️A record 63% of all the Bitcoin that exist have not transacted or moved from their wallets this year. - Wicked

https://i.ibb.co/j9nvbvmP/Gq3-Z-x6-Xw-AAv-Bhg.jpg

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽The S&P 500 has closed more than 20% above its April low, technically beginning a new bull market. We are now up +1,000 points in one month.

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽 Nvidia announces a partnership with Humain to build "AI factories of the future" in Saudi Arabia. Just one hour ago, Saudi Arabia signed an economic agreement with President Trump to invest $600 billion in the US.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 No news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽Huge pressure is on the European Union to reach a trade deal. Equities and commodities bounce hard on news of China-US trade deal. "We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%." - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

Dollar and Yuan strong bounce. Gold corrects.

👉🏽After reaching a high of 71% this year, recession odds are now back down to 40%. The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 fall to a new low of 40% following the US-China trade deal announcement.

👉🏽'Truly incredible:

1. Trump raises tariffs: Yields rise because inflation is back
2. Trump cuts tariffs: Yields rise because growth is back
3. Trump does nothing: Yields rise because the Fed won't cut rates Today, the bond market becomes Trump and Bessent's top priority.' - TKL

President Trump’s biggest problem persists even as trade deals are announced. Tariffs have been paused for 90 days, the US-China trade deal has been announced, and inflation data is down. Yet, the 10Y yield is nearing 4.50% again. Trump needs lower rates, but rates won’t fall.

👉🏽Last week a lot of talk on Japan’s Debt Death Spiral: Japan’s 40-year yield is detonating and the myth of consequence-free debt just died with it. One of the best explanations, you can read here:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Eye-opening chart. Can a country with a services-based economy remain a superpower? Building back US manufacturing base makes a lot of strategic and geopolitical sense.' https://i.ibb.co/Q3zJY9Fc/Gqxc6-Pt-WQAI73c.jpg

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽There is a possibility of a “big, beautiful” economic rebalancing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says at an investment forum in Saudi Arabia. The “dream scenario” would be if China and the US can work together on rebalancing, he adds

Luke Gromen: It does roll off the tongue a whole lot nicer than "We want to significantly devalue USD v. CNY, via a gold reference point."

Ergo: The price of gold specifically would rise in USD much more than it would in CNY, while prices for other goods and services would not, or would do so to a lesser degree.

👉🏽 Dutch inflation rises to 4.1 percent in April | CBS – final figure. Unchanged compared to the estimate.

👉🏽Philipp Heimberger: This interesting new paper argues that cuts to taxes on top incomes disproportionately benefit the financial sector. The finance industry gains more from top-income tax cuts than other industries. "Cuts in top income tax rates increase the (relative) size of the financial sector"

Source

Kinda obvious, innit?

👉🏽US CPI data released. Overall good results and cooler than expected month-over-month and year-over-year (outside of yearly core). U.S. inflation is down to 2.3%, lower than expected.

On the 14th of May:

👉🏽'The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go down.

A 2-percentage-point decrease in interest rates would save ~$568 billion in annual interest payments. However, this means government finances would worsen by more than DOUBLE the amount saved in interest due to a recession. An economic downturn would be incredibly costly for the US government.' -TKL

On the 15th of May:

👉🏽'In the Eurozone and the UK, households hold more than 30% of their financial assets in fiat currencies and bank deposits. This means that they (unknowingly?) allow inflation to destroy their purchasing power. The risks of inflation eating up your wealth increase in a debt-driven economic system characterized by fiscal dominance, where interest rates are structurally low and inflation levels and risks are high. There is so much forced and often failed regulation to increase financial literacy, but this part is never explained. Why is that, you think?' - Jeroen Blokland https://i.ibb.co/zWRpNqhz/Gq-jn-Bn-X0-AAmplm.png

On the 16th of May:

👉🏽'For the first time in a year, Japan's economy shrank by -0.7% in Q1 2025. This is more than double the decline expected by economists. Furthermore, this data does NOT include the reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2nd. Japan's economy is heading for a recession.' -TKL

👉🏽'246 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years. This is up from 206 recorded last year and more than DOUBLE during the same period in 2022. In April alone, the US saw 59 bankruptcy filings as tariffs ramped up. So far this year, the industrials sector has seen 41 bankruptcies, followed by 31 in consumer discretionary, and 17 in healthcare. According to S&P Global, consumer discretionary companies have been hit the hardest due to market volatility, tariffs, and inflation uncertainty. We expect a surge in bankruptcies in 2025.' -TKL

👉🏽'Moody's just downgraded the United States' credit rating for the FIRST time in history. The reason: An unsustainable path for US federal debt and its resulting interest burden. Moody's notes that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 134% by 2035. Federal interest payments are set to equal ~30% of revenue by 2035, up from ~18% in 2024 and ~9% in 2021. Furthermore, deficit spending is now at World War 2 levels as a percentage of GDP. The US debt crisis is our biggest issue with the least attention.' - TKL

Still, this is a nothing burger. In August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US to AA+, and S&P (2011) the US became a split-rated AA+ country. This downgrade had almost no effect on the bond market. The last of the rating agencies, Moodys, pushed the US down to AA+ today. So technically it didn’t even change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+, now it’s unanimous AA+.

Ergo: Nothing changed. America now shares a credit rating with Austria and Finland. Hard assets don’t lie. Watch Gold and Bitcoin.

https://i.ibb.co/Q7DcWY2P/Gr-K66i-EXIAAKh-MR.jpg

RAY DALIO: Credit Agencies are UNDERSTATING sovereign credit risks because "they don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts" with devalued currency.

👉🏽US consumer credit card serious delinquencies are rising at a CRISIS pace: The share of US credit card debt that is past due at least 90 days hit 12.3% in Q1 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS. The percentage has risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis.' - Global Markets Investor

https://i.ibb.co/nNH9CxVK/Gr-E838o-XYAIk-Fyn.png

On the 18th of May:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Look at ten bottom of this list. Milei has not only proven that real free market reforms work, but he has also proven that they work fast. It’s bigger than Argentina now, no wonder that the left legacy media doesn’t like him so much.' https://i.ibb.co/MDnBCDSY/Gr-Npu-KKWMAAf-Pc.jpg

On the 19th of May: 👉🏽Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.” All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again. You and your mother should be scared out of your fucking minds. https://i.ibb.co/rGZ9cMtv/GTXx-S7-Cb-MAAOu-Vt.png

👉🏽 TKL: 'Investors are piling into gold funds like never before: Gold funds have posted a record $85 BILLION in net inflows year-to-date. This is more than DOUBLE the full-year record seen in 2020. At this pace, net inflows will surpass $180 billion by the end of 2025. Gold is now the best-performing major asset class, up 22% year-to-date. Since the low in October 2022, gold prices have gained 97%. Gold is the global hedge against uncertainty.'

🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift, well, in this case, two gifts:

What Bitcoin Did - IS THE FED LOSING CONTROL? With Matthew Mezinskis

'Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of the Crypto Voices podcast, and creator of Porkopolis Economics. In this episode, we discuss fractional reserve banking, why it's controversial among Bitcoiners, the historical precedent for banking practices, and whether fractional reserve banking inherently poses systemic risks. We also get into the dangers and instabilities introduced by central banking, why Bitcoin uniquely offers a pathway to financial sovereignty, the plumbing of the global financial system, breaking down money supply metrics, foreign holdings of US treasuries, and how all these elements indicate growing instability in the dollar system.'

https://youtu.be/j-XPVOl9zGc

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly.

Use the code SE3997

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀

⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you?

If so, please share it and support my work with a zap.

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各ノードにポリシーがある理由 → ノードの資源（CPU、帯域、メモリ）を守り、無駄な処理を避けるため

なぜポリシーがコンセンサスルールより厳しいか 1.資源の節約 コンセンサスルールは「最終的に有効かどうか」の基準だが、全トランザクションをいちいち検証して中継すると資源が枯渇する。 ポリシーで「最初から弾く」仕組みが必要。

1. ネットワーク健全性の維持 手数料が低い、複雑すぎる、標準でないスクリプトのトランザクションが大量に流れると、全体のネットワークが重くなる。 これを防ぐためにノードは独自のポリシーで中継制限。

2. 開発の柔軟性 ポリシーはソフトウェアアップデートで柔軟に変えられるが、コンセンサスルールは変えるとハードフォークの危険がある。 ポリシーを厳しくすることで、安全に新しい制限を試すことができる。

標準ポリシーの意味は何か？ ノードオペレーターは自分でbitcoindの設定やコードを書き換えて独自のポリシーを使える。 理論上ポリシーは「任意」で、標準ポリシー（Bitcoin Coreが提供するポリシー）は単なるデフォルト値。 ただし、標準ポリシーには以下の大事な意味がある。

1. ネットワークの互換性を保つ基準 みんなが全く自由なポリシーを使うとトランザクションの伝播効率が落ちる。 標準ポリシーは「大多数のノードに中継される最小基準」を提供し、それを守ればネットワークに流せるという共通の期待値になる。

2. 開発・サービスの指針 ウォレット開発者やサービス提供者（取引所・支払いサービスなど）は、「標準ポリシーに準拠したトランザクションを作れば十分」という前提で開発できる。 もし標準がなければ全ノードの個別ポリシーを調査しないと流れるトランザクションを作れなくなる。

3. コミュニティの合意形成の場 標準ポリシーはBitcoin Coreの開発・議論で決まる。ここで新しい制限や緩和を入れれば、まずポリシーレベルで試せる。 問題がなければ、将来のコンセンサスルールに昇格させる議論の土台になる。

つまりデフォルトだけど重要。 確かに標準ポリシーは技術的には「デフォルト値」にすぎないが、実際にはネットワークの安定・互換性・開発指針の柱として重要な役割を果たす。

ビットコインノードにおける「無駄な処理」というのは、主に次のようなものを指す。 1. 承認される見込みのないトランザクションの検証 例: 手数料が極端に低く、マイナーが絶対にブロックに入れないようなトランザクション → これをいちいち署名検証したり、メモリプールに載せるのはCPU・RAMの無駄。

1. 明らかに標準外のスクリプトや形式の検証 例: 極端に複雑・非標準なスクリプト（non-standard script） → コンセンサス的には有効だが、ネットワークの他ノードが中継しないため、無駄な伝播になる。

2. スパム的な大量トランザクションの処理 例: 攻撃者が極小手数料のトランザクションを大量に送り、メモリプールを膨張させる場合 → メモリやディスクI/O、帯域の消費が無駄になる。

3. 明らかに無効なブロックの詳細検証 例: サイズが大きすぎるブロック、難易度条件を満たさないブロック → 早期に弾かないと、全トランザクション検証や署名検証で計算資源を浪費する。

これらの無駄な処理は、ノードの CPU時間・メモリ・ディスクI/O・帯域 を消耗させ、最悪の場合は DoS攻撃（サービス妨害攻撃） に悪用される。 そこでポリシーによって、最初の受信段階、または中継段階でそもそも検証・保存・転送しないように制限する。 まとめると、「無駄な処理」とはネットワークの大勢に受け入れられず、ブロックに取り込まれないトランザクションやブロックにノード資源を使うこと。

無駄な処理かどうかは、単に「ポリシーで禁止されているか」で決まるわけではない。

本質的には次の2つで判断される 1. ノードの資源（CPU、メモリ、帯域、ディスク）を過剰に使うか 2. 他のノード・ネットワーク・マイナーに受け入れられる見込みがあるか

将来のBitcoin CoreのバージョンでOP_RETURNの出力数制限やデータサイズ制限が撤廃されたとする。 この場合標準ポリシー的には通るので、中継・保存されやすくなる。 しかし、他のノードやマイナーが追随しなければ意味がない。大量に流せばやはりDoS・スパム扱いされ、無駄な資源消費になる。

最終的には、ネットワーク全体の運用実態。 標準ポリシーの撤廃だけでは、「無駄な処理ではない」とは断定できない。 実質的な「無駄な処理」の判定は、技術的制約＋経済的・運用的現実のセットで決まる。

これって更新したらタイムラインに流れちゃう？それはいやかも テスト

Most nematodes are beneficial and "graze" on black vine weevil, currant borer moth, fungus gnats, other weevils, scarabs, cutworms, webworms, billbugs, mole crickets, termites, peach tree borer and carpenter worm moths.

They also predate bacteria, recycling nutrients back into the soil and by doing so stimulates bacterial activity. They act as microbial taxis by transporting microbes to new locations of soil as they move through it while providing aeration.

https://stacker.news/items/988573

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本サイトはfirefoxのみサポートしています

うにょ

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yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 58537364:705b4b85

2025-05-24 20:48:43

“Any society that sets intellectual development as its goal will continually progress, without end—until life is liberated from problems and suffering. All problems can ultimately be solved through wisdom itself.

The signpost pointing toward ‘wisdom’ is the ability to think—or what is called in Dhamma terms, ‘yoniso-manasikāra,’ meaning wise or analytical reflection. Thinking is the bridge that connects information and knowledge with insight and understanding. Refined or skillful thinking enables one to seek knowledge and apply it effectively.

The key types of thinking are:

• Thinking to acquire knowledge
• Thinking to apply knowledge effectively In other words, thinking to gain knowledge and thinking to use that knowledge. A person with knowledge who doesn’t know how to think cannot make that knowledge useful. On the other hand, a person who thinks without having or seeking knowledge will end up with nothing but dreamy, deluded ideas. When such dreamy ideas are expressed as opinions, they become nonsensical and meaningless—mere expressions of personal likes or dislikes.

In this light, the ‘process of developing wisdom’ begins with the desire to seek knowledge, followed by the training of thinking skills, and concludes with the ability to express well-founded opinions. (In many important cases, practice, testing, or experimentation is needed to confirm understanding.)

Thus, the thirst for knowledge and the ability to seek knowledge are the forerunners of intellectual development. In any society where people lack a love for knowledge and are not inclined to search for it, true intellectual growth will be difficult. That society will be filled with fanciful, delusional thinking and opinions based merely on personal likes and dislikes. For the development of wisdom, there must be the guiding principle that: ‘Giving opinions must go hand-in-hand with seeking knowledge. And once knowledge is gained, thinking must be refined and skillful.’”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto) Source: Dhamma treatise “Organizing Society According to the Ideals of the Sangha”

Note: “Pariyosāna” means the complete conclusion or the final, all-encompassing end.

---

“We must emphasize the pursuit of knowledge more than merely giving opinions. Opinions must be based on the most solid foundation of knowledge.

Nowadays, we face so many problems because people love to express opinions without ever seeking knowledge.”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto)

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ f11e91c5:59a0b04a

2025-04-30 07:52:21

!!!2022-07-07に書かれた記事です。

暗号通貨とかでお弁当売ってます 11:30〜14:00ぐらいでやってます

◆住所 木曜日・東京都渋谷区宇田川町41 （アベマタワーの下らへん）

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Monacoin 3.9mona

Bitzeny 390zny

Bitcoin 3900sats (#lightningNetwork)

Ethereum 0.0039Ether(#zkSync)

39=thank you. （円を基準にしてません）

最近は週に一回になりました。 他の日はキッチンカーの現場を探したり色々してます。 東京都内で平日ランチ出店出来そうな場所があればぜひご連絡を！

写真はNFCタグです。 スマホにウォレットがあればタッチして3900satsで決済出来ます。 正直こんな怪しい手書きのNFCタグなんて絶対にビットコイナーは触りたくも無いだろうなと思いますが、これでも良いんだぜというメッセージです。

今までbtcpayのposでしたが速度を追求してこれに変更しました。 たまに上手くいかないですがそしたら渋々POS出すので温かい目でよろしくお願いします。

ノードを建てたり決済したりで1年経ちました。 最近も少しずつノードを建てる方が増えてるみたいで本当凄いですねUmbrel 大体の人がルーティングに果敢に挑むのを見つつ 奥さんに土下座しながら費用を捻出する弱小の私は決済の利便性を全開で振り切るしか無いので応援よろしくお願いします。

あえて あえて言うのであれば、ルーティングも楽しいですけど やはり本当の意味での即時決済や相手を選んでチャネルを繋げる楽しさもあるよとお伝えしたいっ！！ 決済を受け入れないと分からない所ですが 承認がいらない時点で画期的です。

QRでもタッチでも金額指定でも入力でも もうやりようには出来てしまうし進化が恐ろしく早いので1番利用の多いpaypayの手数料（事業者側のね）を考えたらビットコイン凄いじゃない！と叫びたくなる。 が、やはり税制面や価格の変動（うちはBTC固定だけども）ウォレットの操作や普及率を考えるとまぁ難しい所もあるんですかね。

それでも継続的に沢山の人が色んな活動をしてるので私も何か出来ることがあれば 今後も奥さんに土下座しながら頑張って行きたいと思います。

(Originally posted 2022-07-07)

I sell bento lunches for cryptocurrency. We’re open roughly 11:30 a.m. – 2:00 p.m. Address Thursdays – 41 Udagawa-chō, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo (around the base of Abema Tower)

Prices Coin Price Note Monacoin 3.9 MONA
Bitzeny 390 ZNY Bitcoin 3,900 sats (Lightning Network)
Ethereum 0.0039 ETH (zkSync) “39” sounds like “thank you” in Japanese. Prices aren’t pegged to yen.

These days I’m open only once a week. On other days I’m out scouting new spots for the kitchen-car. If you know weekday-lunch locations inside Tokyo where I could set up, please let me know!

The photo shows an NFC tag. If your phone has a Lightning wallet, just tap and pay 3,900 sats. I admit this hand-written NFC tag looks shady—any self-respecting Bitcoiner probably wouldn’t want to tap it—but the point is: even this works!

I used to run a BTCPay POS, but I switched to this setup for speed. Sometimes the tap payment fails; if that happens I reluctantly pull out the old POS. Thanks for your patience.

It’s been one year since I spun up a node and started accepting Lightning payments. So many people are now running their own nodes—Umbrel really is amazing. While the big players bravely chase routing fees, I’m a tiny operator scraping together funds while begging my wife for forgiveness, so I’m all-in on maximising payment convenience. Your support means a lot!

If I may add: routing is fun, but instant, trust-minimised payments and the thrill of choosing whom to open channels with are just as exciting. You’ll only understand once you start accepting payments yourself—zero-confirmation settlement really is revolutionary.

QR codes, NFC taps, fixed amounts, manual entry… the possibilities keep multiplying, and the pace of innovation is scary fast. When I compare it to the merchant fees on Japan’s most-used service, PayPay, I want to shout: “Bitcoin is incredible!” Sure, taxes, price volatility (my shop is BTC-denominated, though), wallet UX, and adoption hurdles are still pain points.

Even so, lots of people keep building cool stuff, so I’ll keep doing what I can—still on my knees to my wife, but moving forward!

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

2025-05-24 20:47:39

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yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

2025-05-24 20:36:35

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Curabitur suscipit vulputate volutpat Donec ornare, risus non tincidunt malesuada, elit magna feugiat diam, id faucibus libero libero efficitur mauris

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ cff1720e:15c7e2b2

2025-05-24 20:17:45

Ich liebe Pareto. Für das was es ist, viel mehr aber für das was es derzeit wird - der Marktplatz der Ideen. Er entsteht durch gemeinsames Engagement von Entwicklern, Autoren und aktiven Lesern. Es ist ein lebendiges Medium, das jeden Tag wächst, quantitativ wie qualitativ, durch offene Interaktion, was es in dieser Form einzigartig macht.\ \ Mein Text ist inspiriert durch den Artikel von Alexa Rodrian vom 22. Mai über den Auftritt von Wolf Biermann bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises.  Alexa ist keine Publizistin, genau wie zahlreiche unserer Autoren, aber sie hat einen bemerkenswerten Beitrag verfasst. Ich habe ihn spontan geliked, kommentiert und mit einer Spende honoriert. In den vergangenen Tagen habe ich viel darüber reflektiert, und Pareto ermöglicht es mir, und jedem anderen, diese Überlegungen zur “Causa Biermann” hier darzulegen.

MSN kommentierte die anstößige Rede wie folgt: mit einem verfälschten Golda-Meir-Zitat lenkte Biermann das Thema auf das Sterben in Gaza, für das er die Palästinenser selbst verantwortlich machte. „Dass ihr unsere Söhne ermordet habt, werden wir Euch eines Tages verzeihen“, habe Meir zu den Palästinensern gesagt, „aber wir werden euch niemals verzeihen können, dass ihr unsere Söhne gezwungen habt, selber Mörder zu werden.“ Alexa Rodrian, in einer Mischung aus Enttäuschung und Empörung, eröffnete ihren Artikel wie folgt:

„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt. Die fremde Hand ist bei Biermann eher unwahrscheinlich, denn sein Hang zu Provokationen und Verletzungen haben Tradition, man erinnere sich an den legendären Auftritt bei einer Feierstunde im Bundestag 2014 in der er die Mitglieder der Linksfraktion als “elenden Rest“ und ”Drachenbrut” bezeichnete. Oder seine Beschimpfungen der (ostdeutschen) Wähler von AfD und BSW im August 2024 in einem Zeit-Interview:  „Die, die zu feige waren in der Diktatur, rebellieren jetzt ohne Risiko gegen die Demokratie.  Den Bequemlichkeiten der Diktatur jammern sie nach, und die Mühen der Demokratie sind ihnen fremd.“

Im Februar 2025 wurde Wolf Biermann für sein Lebenswerk mit einem Musikpreis der GEMA ausgezeichnet. Was aber ist sein Lebenswerk, sein mutiges Engagement in der Opposition der DDR bis 1976 oder seine verfehlten Rüpeleien in der Gegenwart? Ein solcher Preis ist fragwürdig, denn kein Lebenswerk ist konsistent, und die Bewertung abhängig von subjektiven Maßstäben. Meist wählen wir unsere Idole nach unseren Idealen, aber die können sich verändern, ebenso wie das Idol. Beethoven widmete seine 3. Sinfonie (Eroica) Napoleon, zog die Widmung aber zurück als dieser sich 1804 zum Kaiser krönen ließ. “Ist der auch nichts anderes, wie ein gewöhnlicher Mensch?” soll er wütend ausgerufen haben. Richtig! Was hatte Beethoven erwartet, einen Gott? “Hosianna” und “kreuzigt ihn” sind Affekte die durch unsere Projektionen verursacht und den Realitäten nie gerecht werden. 

Den Preis für sein Lebenswerk kann Wolf Biermann behalten. Er hat Millionen von Menschen in der DDR Mut gemacht. Er hat zahlreiche großartige Gedichte und Lieder verfasst, das behalte ich gerne in Erinnerung. Nun hat er sich selbst vom Sockel gestürzt und durch seinen Empathiemangel das Image beschädigt. Das hätte er vermeiden können, wenn er sich an die Worte seines Lehrmeisters Brecht erinnert hätte.

...\ Dabei wissen wir doch:\ Auch der Hass gegen die Niedrigkeit\ verzerrt die Züge.\ Auch der Zorn über das Unrecht\ Macht die Stimme heiser. Ach, wir\ Die wir den Boden bereiten wollten für die Freundlichkeit\ Konnten selber nicht freundlich sein.\ ...

An die Nachgeborenen

Er hätte auch von der Medizin nehmen können, die er selbst für andere entwickelt hat \ (1966 für seinen Freund Peter Huchel).

…\ Du, laß dich nicht verhärten\ in dieser harten Zeit.\ Die allzu hart sind, brechen,\ die allzu spitz sind, stechen\ und brechen ab sogleich.\ …

Die Ermutigung

PS: Fortsetzung folgt in der Reihe \ “Was wir von großen Persönlichkeiten lernen können, wenn wir ihnen zuhören würden."

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ f7a1599c:6f2484d5

2025-05-24 20:06:04

In March 2020, Lucas was afraid.

The economy was grinding to a halt. Markets were in freefall. In a sweeping response, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented intervention—buying everything from Treasury bonds and mortgages to corporate debt, expanding the money supply by $4 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. government issued over $800 billion in stimulus checks to households across the country.

These extraordinary measures may have averted a wave of business failures and bank runs—but they came at a cost: currency debasement and rising inflation. Alarmed by the scale of central bank intervention and its consequences for savers, Lucas decided to act.

In a state of mild panic, he withdrew $15,000 from his bank account and bought ten gold coins. Then he took another $10,000 and bought two bitcoins. If the dollar system failed, Lucas wanted something with intrinsic value he could use.

He mentioned his plan to his friend Daniel, who laughed.

“Why don’t you stock up on guns and cigarettes while you’re at it?” Daniel quipped. “The Fed is doing what it has to—stabilizing the economy in a crisis. Sure, $4 trillion is a lot of money, but it's backed by the most productive economy on Earth. Don’t panic. The world’s not ending.”

To prove his point, Daniel put $25,000 into the S&P 500—right at the pandemic bottom.

And he was right. Literally.

By Spring 2025, the stock market was near all-time highs. The world hadn’t ended. The U.S. economy kept moving, more or less as usual. Daniel’s investment had nearly tripled—his $25,000 had grown to $65,000.

But oddly enough, Lucas’ seemingly panicked reaction had been both prudent and profitable.

His gold coins had climbed from $1,500 to $3,300 apiece—a 120% gain. Bitcoin had soared from $5,000 to $90,000, making his two coins worth $180,000. Altogether, Lucas’s $25,000 allocation had grown to $213,000—a nearly 10x return. And his goal wasn’t even profit. It was safety.

With that kind of fortune, you’d expect Lucas to feel confident, even serene. He had more than enough to preserve his purchasing power, even in the face of years of inflation.

But in the spring of 2025, Lucas felt anything but calm.

He was uneasy—gripped by a sense that the 2020 crisis hadn’t been a conclusion, but a prelude.

In his mind, 2020 was just the latest chapter in a troubling sequence: the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic shock of 2020. Each crisis had been more sudden, more sweeping, and more dependent on emergency measures than the last.

And Lucas couldn’t shake the feeling that the next act—whenever it came—would be more disruptive, more severe, and far more damaging.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 78b3c1ed:5033eea9

2025-04-29 04:04:19

Umbrel Core-lightning(以下CLNと略す)を運用するにあたり役に立ちそうなノウハウやメモを随時投稿します。

・configファイルを用意する Umbrelのアプリとして必要な設定はdocker-compose.ymlで指定されている。 それ以外の設定をしたい場合configファイルに入れると便利。 configファイルの置き場所は /home/umbrel/umbrel/app-data/core-lightning/data/lightningd ここにtouch configとでもやってファイルをつくる。 cd /home/umbrel/umbrel/app-data/core-lightning/data/lightningd touch config 以下内容をひな型として使ってみてください。 行頭に#があるとコメント行になります。つまり.iniフォーマット。 /home/umbrel/umbrel/app-data/core-lightning/data/lightningd/config ```

[General options]

[Bitcoin control options]

[Lightning daemon options]

[Lightning node customization options]

[Lightning channel and HTLC options]

[Payment control options]

[Networking options]

[Lightning Plugins]

[Experimental Options]

``` configに設定できる内容は以下を参照 https://lightning.readthedocs.io/lightningd-config.5.html セクションを意味する[]があるけれどもこれは私(tanakei)が意図的に見やすく区別しやすくするために付けただけ。これら行の＃は外さない。

・configの設定をCLNに反映させる appスクリプトでCLNを再起動すると反映することができる。 configを書き換えただけでは反映されない。 cd /home/umbrel/umbrel/scripts ./app restart core-lightning

・ログをファイルに出力させる

以下の場所でtouch log.txtとしてlog.txtファイルを作る。 /home/umbrel/umbrel/app-data/core-lightning/data/lightningd cd /home/umbrel/umbrel/app-data/core-lightning/data/lightningd touch log.txt 次にconfigの[Lightning daemon options]セクションにlog-fileを追加する。 ```

[Lightning daemon options]

log-file=/data/.lightning/log.txt ``` ※Dockerによって/home/umbrel/umbrel/app-data/core-lightning/data/lightningd は /data/.lightning として使われている。

・addrとbind-addrの違い どちらも着信用のインターフェースとポートの設定。addrは指定したホストIPアドレス:ポート番号をノードURIに含めて公開する(node_announcementのuris)。bind-addrは公開しない。

・実験的機能のLN Offerを有効にする configの[Experimental Options]セクションに以下を追加する。 ```

[Experimental Options]

experimental-onion-messages experimental-offers ``` ※ v24.08でexperimental-onion-messageは廃止されデフォルト有効であり、上記設定の追加は不要になりました。 ※ v21.11.1 では experimental-offersは廃止されデフォルト有効であり、上記設定の追加は不要になりました。 もう実験扱いじゃなくなったのね...

・完全にTorでの発信オンリーにする UmbrelはなぜかCLNの発信をClearnetとTorのハイブリッドを許している。それは　always-use-proxy=true　の設定がないから。(LNDは発着信Torのみなのに) なのでこの設定をconfigに追加してCLNも発着進Torのみにする。 ```

[Networking options]

always-use-proxy=true ```

・任意のニーモニックからhsm_secretを作る CLNのhsm_secretはLNDのwallet.dbのようなもの。ノードで使う様々な鍵のマスター鍵となる。Umbrel CLNはこのhsm_secretファイルを自動生成したものを使い、これをバックアップするためのニーモニックを表示するとかそういう機能はない。自分で作って控えてあるニーモニックでhsm_secretを作ってしまえばこのファイルが壊れてもオンチェーン資金は復旧はできる。

1.CLNインストール後、dockerコンテナに入る docker exec -it core-lightning_lightningd_1 bash 2.lightning-hsmtoolコマンドを使って独自hsm_secretを作る ``` cd data/.lightning/bitcoin lightning-hsmtool generatehsm my-hsm_secret

・上記コマンドを実行するとニーモニックの言語、ニーモニック、パスフレーズの入力を催促される。 Select your language: 0) English (en) 1) Spanish (es) 2) French (fr) 3) Italian (it) 4) Japanese (jp) 5) Chinese Simplified (zhs) 6) Chinese Traditional (zht) Select [0-7]: 0　※定番の英単語なら0を入力 Introduce your BIP39 word list separated by space (at least 12 words): <ニーモニックを入力する> Warning: remember that different passphrases yield different bitcoin wallets. If left empty, no password is used (echo is disabled). Enter your passphrase: <パスフレーズを入力する>　※パスフレーズ不要ならそのままエンターキーを押す。 New hsm_secret file created at my-hsm_secret Use the encrypt command to encrypt the BIP32 seed if needed

コンテナから抜ける exit

3.appスクリプトでCLNを止めて、独自hsm_secret以外を削除 ※【重要】いままで使っていたhsm_secretを削除する。もしチャネル残高、ウォレット残高があるならチャネルを閉じて資金を退避すること。自己責任！ cd ~/umbrel/scripts/ ./app stop core-lightning

cd ~/umbrel/app-data/core-lightning/data/lightningd/bitcoin rm gossip_store hsm_secret lightningd.sqlite3 lightning-rpc mv my-hsm_secret hsm_secret 4.appスクリプトでCLNを再開する cd ~/umbrel/scripts/ ./app start core-lightning ```

【補記】 hsm_secret作成につかうニーモニックはBIP39で、LNDのAezeedと違って自分が作成されたブロック高さというものを含んでいない。新規でなくて復元して使う場合は作成されたブロック高さからブロックチェーンをrescanする必要がある。 configの１行目にrescanオプションを付けてCLNをリスタートする。 ``` // 特定のブロック高さを指定する場合はマイナス記号をつける rescan=-756000

// 現在のブロック高さから指定ブロック分さかのぼった高さからrescanする rescan=10000 ※現在の高さが760,000なら10000指定だと750,000からrescan ```

・clnrestについて core-lightningでREST APIを利用したい場合、別途c-lightning-restを用意する必要があった。v23.8から標準でclnrestというプラグインがついてくる。pythonで書かれていて、ソースからビルドした場合はビルド完了後にpip installでインストールする。elementsproject/lightningdのDockerイメージではインストール済みになっている。 (v25.02からgithubからバイナリをダウンロードしてきた場合はpip install不要になったようだ) このclnrestを使うにはcreaterunesコマンドでruneというLNDのマカロンのようなものを作成する必要がある。アプリ側でこのruneとREST APIを叩いてcore-lightningへアクセスすることになる。 自分が良く使っているLNbitsやスマホアプリZeus walletはclnrestを使う。まだclnrestに対応していないアプリもあるので留意されたし。

・Emergency recoverについて LNDのSCBのようなもの。ファイル名はemergency.recover チャネルを開くと更新される。 hsm_secretとこのファイルだけを置いてCLNを開始すると自動でこのファイルから強制クローズするための情報が読み出されてDLPで相手から強制クローズするような仕組み。この機能はv0.12から使える。

動作確認してみた所、LNDのSCBに比べるとかなり使いづらい。 1. CLNがTor発信だとチャネルパートナーと接続できない。 　Clearnet発信できても相手がTorのみノードならTor発信せざるを得ない。 　相手と通信できなければ資金回収できない。 2. 相手がLNDだとなぜか強制クローズされない。相手がCLNならできる。

つまり、自分と相手がClearnetノードでかつ相手もCLNならば Emergency recoverで強制クローズして資金回収できる。こんな条件の厳しい復旧方法がマジで役に立つのか？

v0.11以降ならばLNDのchannel.dbに相当するlightningd.sqlite3をプライマリ・セカンダリDBと冗長化できるので、セカンダリDBをNFSで保存すればUmbrelのストレージが壊れてもセカンダリDBで復旧できる。そのためemergerncy.recoverを使う必要がないと思われる。

・LN offer(BOLT#12)ついて 使いたいなら 1.publicチャネルを開く 　publicチャネルを開けばチャネルとノードの情報(channel_announcement, node_announcement)が他ノードに伝わる。送金したい相手がこの情報を元に経路探索する。 2.その後しばらく待つ CLNノードを立てたばかりだと経路探索するに十分なチャネルとノードの情報が揃ってない。せめて1日は待つ。

LNURLの場合インボイスをhttpsで取得するが、OfferはLN経由で取得する。そのためにチャネルとノードの情報が必要。privateチャネルばかりのノードはチャネル情報もそうだがノード情報も出さない。 Offerで使えるBlind pathという機能なら中間ノードIDを宛先ノードとすることが可能で、これならチャネルとノード情報を公開しなくても受けとれるのだがCLNは対応してない模様(2025年1月現在) CLNでOfferで受け取るにはチャネルとノード情報を公開する必要がある。そのためpublicチャネルを開く。公開されていれば良いのでTorでもOK。クリアネットで待ち受けは必須ではない。

・hsm_sercretとニーモニック lightning-hsmtoolを使うとニーモニックからhsm_secretを作れる。ニーモニックからシードを作ると64バイト。これはニーモニックおよびソルトにパスフレーズをPBKDF2(HMAC-SHA512を2048回)にかけると512ビット(64バイト)のシードができる。しかしhsm_secretは32バイト。CLNでは64バイトの最初の32バイトをhsm_secretとして利用しているみたい。 このhsm_secretにHMAC-SHA512をかけて512ビットとした値がウォレットのマスター鍵となる。なのでhsm_secret自体がBIP-32でいうマスターシードそのものではない。 sparrow walletにCLNのウォレットを復元したい場合は lightning-hsmtool dumponchaindescriptors --show-secrets とやってディスクリプターウォレットを出力。出力内容にマスター鍵(xprv～)があるので、これをインポートする。導出パス設定はm/0とする。sparrowが残りを補完してm/0/0/0, m/0/0/1とやってくれる。

<おまけ> configファイルのサンプル。Umbrelを使わない場合は以下のサンプルが役に立つはず。上記のelementsproject/lightningdならば/root/.lightningに任意のディレクトリをマウントしてそのディレクトリにconfigを置く。 ```

[General options]

不可逆なDBアップグレードを許可しない

database-upgrade=false

[Bitcoin control options]

network=bitcoin bitcoin-rpcconnect= bitcoin-rpcport= bitcoin-rpcuser= bitcoin-rpcpassword=

[Lightning daemon options]

postgresを使う場合

wallet=postgres://USER:PASSWORD@HOST:PORT/DB_NAME

bookkeeper-db=postgres://USER:PASSWORD@HOST:PORT/DB_NAME

sqlite3を使う場合。デフォルトはこちらで以下の設定が無くても~/.lightning/bitconに自動で作成される。

wallet=sqlite3:///home/USERNAME/.lightning/bitcoin/lightningd.sqlite3

bookkeeper-db=sqlite3:///home/USERNAME/.lightning/bitcoin/accounts.sqlite3

ログファイルは自動で作成されない

log-file=/home/USERNAME/.lightning/lightningd-log

log-level=debug

[Lightning node customization options]

alias= rgb=

固定手数料。ミリサトシで指定。

fee-base=1000000

変動手数料。ppmで指定。

fee-per-satoshi=0

最小チャネルキャパシティ(sats)

min-capacity-sat=100000

HTLC最少額。ミリサトシで指定。

htlc-minimum-msat=1000

[Lightning channel and HTLC options]

large-channels # v23.11よりデフォルトでラージチャネルが有効。

チャネル開設まで6承認

funding-confirms=6

着信できるHTLCの数。開いたら変更できない。1～483 (デフォルトは 30) の範囲にする必要があります

max-concurrent-htlcs=INTEGER

アンカーチャネルを閉じるためにウォレットに保持しておく資金。デフォルトは 25,000sat

チャネルを"忘れる(forget)"するまではリザーブされる模様。forgetはチャネル閉じてから100ブロック後

min-emergency-msat=10000000

[Cleanup control options]

autoclean-cycle=3600 autoclean-succeededforwards-age=0 autoclean-failedforwards-age=0 autoclean-succeededpays-age=0 autoclean-failedpays-age=0 autoclean-paidinvoices-age=0 autoclean-expiredinvoices-age=0

[Payment control options]

disable-mpp

[Networking options]

bind-addrだとアナウンスしない。

bind-addr=0.0.0.0:9375

tor

proxy=: always-use-proxy=true

Torの制御ポート。addr=statictor だとhidden serviceをノードURIとして公開する。

addr=statictor:: tor-service-password=

experimental-websocket-portは廃止された。bind-addr=ws:が代替。

bind-addr=ws::2106

clnrestプラグイン, REST API

clnrest-host=0.0.0.0 clnrest-port=3010 clnrest-protocol=http

v24.11よりgrpcはデフォルト有効

grpc-host=0.0.0.0 grpc-port=9736

[Lightning Plugins]

[Experimental Options]

experimental-onion-messages # v24.08で廃止。デフォルト有効

experimental-offers # v24.11.1で廃止。デフォルト有効

流動性広告からチャネルを開くときにexperimental-dual-fundが必要らしい。

experimental-dual-fund

experimental-splicing

experimental-peer-storage

```

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 78b3c1ed:5033eea9

2025-04-27 01:48:48

※スポットライトから移植した古い記事です。参考程度に。

これを参考にしてUmbrelのBitcoin Nodeをカスタムsignetノードにする。 以下メモ書きご容赦。備忘録程度に書き留めました。

メインネットとは共存できない。Bitcoinに依存する全てのアプリを削除しなければならない。よって実験機に導入すべき。

<手順>

1.Umbrel Bitcoin Nodeアプリのadvance settingでsignetを選択。

2.CLI appスクリプトでbitcoinを止める。 cd umbrel/scripts ./app stop bitcoin 3.bitcoin.conf, umbrel-bitcoin.conf以外を削除 ディレクトリの場所は ~/umbrel/app-data/bitcoin/data/bitcoin 4.umbrel-bitcoin.confをsu権限で編集。末尾にsignetchallengeを追加。 ``` [signet] bind=0.0.0.0:8333 bind=10.21.21.8:8334=onion

51,21,<公開鍵>,51,ae

signetchallenge=5121<公開鍵>51ae 5.appスクリプトでbitcoinを開始。 cd ~/umbrel/scripts ./app start bitcoin ``` 6.適当にディレクトリを作りgithubからbitcoindのソースをクローン。

7.bitcoindのバイナリをダウンロード、bitcoin-cliおよびbitcoin-utilを~/.local/binに置く。6.のソースからビルドしても良い。ビルド方法は自分で調べて。

8.bitcondにマイニング用のウォレットを作成 ``` alias bcli='docker exec -it bitcoin_bitcoind_1 bitcoin-cli -signet -rpcconnect=10.21.21.8 -rpcport=8332 -rpcuser=umbrel -rpcpassword=<パスワード>'

ウォレットを作る。

bcli createwallet "mining" false true "" false false

秘密鍵をインポート

bcli importprivkey "<秘密鍵>" RPCパスワードは以下で確認 cat ~/umbrel/.env | grep BITCOIN_RPC_PASS 9.ソースにあるbitcoin/contrib/signet/minerスクリプトを使ってマイニング cd <ダウンロードしたディレクトリ>/bitcoin/contrib/signet

難易度の算出

./miner \ --cli="bitcoin-cli -signet -rpcconnect=10.21.21.8 -rpcport=8332 -rpcuser=umbrel -rpcpassword=<パスワード>" calibrate \ --grind-cmd="bitcoin-util grind" --seconds 30 ★私の環境で30秒指定したら nbits=1d4271e7 と算出された。実際にこれで動かすと２分30になるけど...

ジェネシスブロック生成

./miner \ --cli="bitcoin-cli -signet -rpcconnect=10.21.21.8 -rpcport=8332 -rpcuser=umbrel -rpcpassword=<パスワード>" generate \ --address <ビットコインアドレス> \ --grind-cmd="bitcoin-util grind" --nbits=1d4271e7 \ --set-block-time=$(date +%s)

継続的にマイニング

./miner \ --cli="bitcoin-cli -signet -rpcconnect=10.21.21.8 -rpcport=8332 -rpcuser=umbrel -rpcpassword=<パスワード>" generate \ --address <ビットコインアドレス> \ --grind-cmd="bitcoin-util grind" --nbits=1d4271e7 \ --ongoing ``` ここまでやればカスタムsignetでビットコインノードが稼働する。

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 15cf81d4:b328e146

2025-05-24 19:19:46

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Act fast and secure your digital assets with cryptrecver.com.Losing access to your cryptocurrency can feel like losing a part of your future. Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, a damaged seed backup, or a simple mistake in a transfer, the stress can be overwhelming. Fortunately, cryptrecver.com is here to assist! With our expert-led recovery services, you can safely and swiftly reclaim your lost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

# Why Trust Crypt Recver? 🤝

🛠️ Expert Recovery Solutions\ At Crypt Recver, we specialize in addressing complex wallet-related issues. Our skilled engineers have the tools and expertise to handle:

• Partially lost or forgotten seed phrases
• Extracting funds from outdated or invalid wallet addresses
• Recovering data from damaged hardware wallets
• Restoring coins from old or unsupported wallet formats

You’re not just getting a service; you’re gaining a partner in your cryptocurrency journey.

🚀 Fast and Efficient Recovery\ We understand that time is crucial in crypto recovery. Our optimized systems enable you to regain access to your funds quickly, focusing on speed without compromising security. With a success rate of over 90%, you can rely on us to act swiftly on your behalf.

🔒 Privacy is Our Priority\ Your confidentiality is essential. Every recovery session is conducted with the utmost care, ensuring all processes are encrypted and confidential. You can rest assured that your sensitive information remains private.

💻 Advanced Technology\ Our proprietary tools and brute-force optimization techniques maximize recovery efficiency. Regardless of how challenging your case may be, our technology is designed to give you the best chance at retrieving your crypto.

Our Recovery Services Include: 📈

• Bitcoin Recovery: Lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? We help recover lost wallets, private keys, and passphrases.
• Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery.
• Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet.
• Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy.

⚠️ What We Don’t Do\ While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect

# Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back!

Did you know that between 3 to 3.4 million BTC — nearly 20% of the total supply — are estimated to be permanently lost? Don’t become part of that statistic! Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, sending funds to the wrong address, or damaged drives, we can help you navigate these challenges

🛡️ Real-Time Dust Attack Protection\ Our services extend beyond recovery. We offer dust attack protection, keeping your activity anonymous and your funds secure, shielding your identity from unwanted tracking, ransomware, and phishing attempts.

🎉 Start Your Recovery Journey Today!\ Ready to reclaim your lost crypto? Don’t wait until it’s too late!\ 👉 cryptrecver.com

📞 Need Immediate Assistance? Connect with Us!\ For real-time support or questions, reach out to our dedicated team on:\ ✉️ Telegram: t.me/crypptrcver\ 💬 WhatsApp: +1(941)317–1821

Crypt Recver is your trusted partner in cryptocurrency recovery. Let us turn your challenges into victories. Don’t hesitate — your crypto future starts now! 🚀✨

Act fast and secure your digital assets with cryptrecver.com.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17

2025-05-24 19:16:17

Descrição da empresa

Fundada em 1961, a WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, atuando principalmente no setor de bens de capital com soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação e tintas, para diversos setores, incluindo infraestrutura, siderurgia, papel e celulose, petróleo e gás, mineração, entre muitos outros.

A WEG se destaca em inovação pelo desenvolvimento constante de soluções para atender as grandes tendências voltadas a eficiência energética, energias renováveis e mobilidade elétrica. Com operações industriais em 17 países e presença comercial em mais de 135 países, a companhia possui mais de 47.000 mil colaboradores distribuídos pelo mundo.

Em 2024, a WEG atingiu faturamento líquido de R$38,0 bilhões, destes 57,0% proveniente das vendas realizadas fora do Brasil.

acao wege3

Vendendo soluções para os clientes

"Na febre do ouro, muito garimpeiros corriam atrás de ouro para ficar ricos. Enquanto isso, muita gente enriqueceu vendendo pás, roupas, bebidas, cigarros e mantimentos para eles…”

Em um mundo dominado cada vez mais por Inteligência Artificial, carros elétricos e tecnologias quânticas. A Wege segue se destacando por oferecer equipamentos e parte da estrutura pode detrás para que essas tecnologias possam existir. Focada em inovação e performance. A empresa oferece soluções de ponta a ponta para os mais variados setores da indústria.

Visão geral da empresa

A Wege atua no setor de máquinas e equipamentos. Se formos fazer um refino, podemos dizer que ela atua em subsetores tais como: motores, compressores e outros.

Mercado que atua

O setor de máquinas e equipamentos no Brasil em 2024 enfrentou um cenário desafiador, com uma queda na receita líquida, mas também mostrou sinais de recuperação e algumas perspectivas positivas em segmentos específicos e no início de 2025.

A WEG é gigante no mundo todo. Os caras têm fábricas e filiais em mais de 40 países, espalhados por todos os continentes. A estratégia dos caras é expandir sempre, comprando outras empresas e investindo pesado em mercados-chave. A empresa foca em: Expansão, inovação e sustentabilidade.

Mercado

Grana Alta: Em 2024, o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos valeu uns US$ 205,67 bilhões. Já a parte de motores elétricos, chegou a uns US$ 152,2 bilhões. A parada é que a automação industrial, que é a cara do futuro, estava em uns US$ 192,02 bilhões em 2024. É muita grana rolando!

As empresas estão investindo cada vez mais em IA (Inteligência artificial), IOT (internet das coisas, robótica e fabricação sustentável.

Perspectiva de crescimento A parada é que esse mercado tá com gás total pra crescer nos próximos anos, parceiro:

Máquinas e Equipamentos: A expectativa é que o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos cresça cerca de 6,57% ao ano até 2033, podendo chegar a uns US$ 364,66 bilhões.

Motores Elétricos: Esse setor tá prometendo um crescimento de uns 6,3% ao ano até 2029, podendo bater uns US$ 206,4 bilhões. A demanda por carros elétricos tá puxando muito esse crescimento.

Automação Industrial: Essa é a cereja do bolo! A expectativa é que o mercado de automação industrial dispare uns 9,1% ao ano até 2033, alcançando uns US$ 420,49 bilhões. A busca por mais produtividade, menos erros e mais eficiência tá impulsionando essa onda.

Materia sobre carros eletricos

Oportunidades que o ativo traz

Na minha visão, as maiores oportunidades que a Wege nos traz são:

1. Equipamentos Eletroeletrônicos Industriais

   Esta área inclui os motores elétricos, drives e equipamentos e serviços de automação industrial e serviços de manutenção. Os motores elétricos e demais equipamentos têm aplicação em praticamente todos os segmentos industriais, em equipamentos como compressores, bombas e ventiladores.

2. Geração Transmissão e Distribuição de Energia (GTD)

   Os produtos e serviços incluídos nesta área são os geradores elétricos para usinas hidráulicas e térmicas (biomassa), turbinas hidráulicas (PCH e CGH), aerogeradores, transformadores, subestações, painéis de controle e serviços de integração de sistemas.

3. Motores Comerciais e Appliance

   O foco de atuação nesta área é o mercado de motores monofásicos para bens de consumo durável, como lavadoras de roupas, aparelhos de ar condicionado, bombas de água, entre outros.

cotacao wege3

Desde Janeiro/25, podemos observar que o gráfico teve uma queda no seu preço. Contudo, continua se mantendo acima da ema200 e com ótimo volume negociado. Isso tudo caracteriza que a tendência majoritária ainda é compradora. Então, devemos pensar em atuar somente nesse sentido.

Riscos

Os maiores riscos que vejo hoje, para uma empresa tão sólida como Wege são:

1. Instabilidade Econômica Global e Regional, qualquer flutuação em mercado chave atuante pode representar um risco.
2. Inflação e Custo de Insumos, principalmente aço e cobre que são matérias prima base.
3. Políticas Tarifárias e Protecionismo, se o homem laranja dos EUA impor tarifas. Pode afetar sim os negócios da empresa como um todo.

trump

Catalisadores

Na minha visão, os catalisadores da empresa. Que impulsionam e continuaram dando força a ela são:

distribuicao receita

• Forte diversificação de receita, 53% vem em dólar.
• Boa perspectiva do aumento do valor do dólar. Isso representa mais caixa.
• As aquisiçõess feitas recentemente, que vão impulsionar a receita da empresa.

aquisicao wege

Faq

Qual foi o desempenho da WEGE3 nas últimas 52 semanas?

13.95% foi desempenho das ações da WEGE3 até o momento.

WEGE3 paga dividendos? Qual o Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3?

Sim, WEGE3 (WEG) paga dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio (JCP). O Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3 tem variado ao longo do tempo, mas geralmente se encontra entre 1,4% e 1,8%, dependendo da cotação atual das ações e dos valores de dividendos e JCP distribuídos.

O que é a WEG? Qual o setor de atuação da WEG?

A WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, que atua principalmente no setor de bens de capital. A empresa se destaca por suas soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação, tintas e sistemas de energia, com foco em eficiência energética e sustentabilidade.

Quais produtos a WEG fabrica?

A WEG produz uma vasta gama de produtos e soluções, abrangendo desde equipamentos elétricos e eletrônicos até tintas e vernizes.

Qual é o P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3?

O P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3, conforme indicadores de mercado, está em torno de 29,32.

Bio

Investir não precisa ser um bicho de sete cabeças! Na Threedolar, democratizamos o acesso ao mundo dos investimentos, oferecendo conteúdo claro e prático. Comece hoje mesmo a construir seu futuro financeiro!

Disclaimer

Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!

Referencia

https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/50c1bd3e-8ac6-42d9-884f-b9d69f690602/161a9930-5b12-3b03-758b-3b6d2b725211?origin=1

https://www.fundamentus.com.br/detalhes.php?papel=WEGE3&h=1

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/perfil-corporativo/

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/por-que-a-weg/

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/auto/carros-eletrificados-registram-85-de-aumento-nas-vendas-de-2024/

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 78b3c1ed:5033eea9

2025-04-27 01:42:48

・ThunderHubで焼いたマカロンがlncli printmacaroonでどう見えるか確認した。

ThunderHub macaroon permissions

get invoices invoices:read create invoices invoices:write get payments offchain:read pay invoices offchain:write get chain transactions onchain:read send to chain address onchain:write create chain address address:write get wallet info info:read stop daemon info:write この結果によれば、offchain:wirteとonchain:writeの権限がなければそのマカロンを使うクライアントは勝手にBTCを送金することができない。 info:writeがなければ勝手にLNDを止めたりすることができない。

・lncli printmacaroonでデフォルトで作られるmacaroonのpermissionsを調べてみた。 admin.macaroon { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "address:read", "address:write", "info:read", "info:write", "invoices:read", "invoices:write", "macaroon:generate", "macaroon:read", "macaroon:write", "message:read", "message:write", "offchain:read", "offchain:write", "onchain:read", "onchain:write", "peers:read", "peers:write", "signer:generate", "signer:read" ], "caveats": null } chainnotifier.macaroon { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "onchain:read" ], "caveats": null } invoice.macaroon { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "address:read", "address:write", "invoices:read", "invoices:write", "onchain:read" ], "caveats": null } invoices.macaroon { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "invoices:read", "invoices:write" ], "caveats": null } readonly.macaroon { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "address:read", "info:read", "invoices:read", "macaroon:read", "message:read", "offchain:read", "onchain:read", "peers:read", "signer:read" ], "caveats": null } router.macaroon { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "offchain:read", "offchain:write" ], "caveats": null } signer.macaroon { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "signer:generate", "signer:read" ], "caveats": null } walletkit.macaroon { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "address:read", "address:write", "onchain:read", "onchain:write" ], "caveats": null }

・lncli listpermissions コマンドですべての RPC メソッド URI と、それらを呼び出すために必要なマカロン権限を一覧表示できる。 LND v0.18.5-betaでやると1344行ほどのJSONができる。 AddInvoiceだとinvoice:writeのpermissionを持つmacaroonを使えばインボイスを作れるようだ。 "/lnrpc.Lightning/AddInvoice": { "permissions": [ { "entity": "invoices", "action": "write" } ] }, lncli listpermissionsからentityとactionを抜き出してみた。 ``` "entity": "address", "entity": "info", "entity": "invoices", "entity": "macaroon", "entity": "message", "entity": "offchain", "entity": "onchain", "entity": "peers", "entity": "signer",

"action": "generate" "action": "read" "action": "write" lncli とjqを組み合わせると例えば以下コマンドでinvoices:writeを必要とするRPCの一覧を表示できる。 invoices:writeだとAddInvoiceの他にホドルインボイス作成でも使ってるようだ lncli listpermissions | jq -r '.method_permissions | to_entries[] | select(.value.permissions[] | select(.entity == "invoices" and .action == "write")) | .key' /invoicesrpc.Invoices/AddHoldInvoice /invoicesrpc.Invoices/CancelInvoice /invoicesrpc.Invoices/HtlcModifier /invoicesrpc.Invoices/LookupInvoiceV2 /invoicesrpc.Invoices/SettleInvoice /lnrpc.Lightning/AddInvoice invoices:readだと以下となる。 /invoicesrpc.Invoices/SubscribeSingleInvoice /lnrpc.Lightning/ListInvoices /lnrpc.Lightning/LookupInvoice /lnrpc.Lightning/SubscribeInvoices LNの主だった機能のRPCはoffchainが必要ぽいので抜き出してみた。 offchain:write チャネルの開閉、ペイメントの送信までやってるみたい。 デフォルトのmacaroonでoffchain:writeを持ってるのはadminとrouterの2つだけ。openchannel,closechannelはonchain:writeのpermissionも必要なようだ。 /autopilotrpc.Autopilot/ModifyStatus /autopilotrpc.Autopilot/SetScores /lnrpc.Lightning/AbandonChannel /lnrpc.Lightning/BatchOpenChannel /lnrpc.Lightning/ChannelAcceptor /lnrpc.Lightning/CloseChannel /lnrpc.Lightning/DeleteAllPayments /lnrpc.Lightning/DeletePayment /lnrpc.Lightning/FundingStateStep /lnrpc.Lightning/OpenChannel /lnrpc.Lightning/OpenChannelSync /lnrpc.Lightning/RestoreChannelBackups /lnrpc.Lightning/SendCustomMessage /lnrpc.Lightning/SendPayment /lnrpc.Lightning/SendPaymentSync /lnrpc.Lightning/SendToRoute /lnrpc.Lightning/SendToRouteSync /lnrpc.Lightning/UpdateChannelPolicy /routerrpc.Router/HtlcInterceptor /routerrpc.Router/ResetMissionControl /routerrpc.Router/SendPayment /routerrpc.Router/SendPaymentV2 /routerrpc.Router/SendToRoute /routerrpc.Router/SendToRouteV2 /routerrpc.Router/SetMissionControlConfig /routerrpc.Router/UpdateChanStatus /routerrpc.Router/XAddLocalChanAliases /routerrpc.Router/XDeleteLocalChanAliases /routerrpc.Router/XImportMissionControl /wtclientrpc.WatchtowerClient/AddTower /wtclientrpc.WatchtowerClient/DeactivateTower /wtclientrpc.WatchtowerClient/RemoveTower /wtclientrpc.WatchtowerClient/TerminateSession "/lnrpc.Lightning/OpenChannel": { "permissions": [ { "entity": "onchain", "action": "write" }, { "entity": "offchain", "action": "write" } ] }, offchain:read readの方はチャネルやインボイスの状態を確認するためのpermissionのようだ。 /lnrpc.Lightning/ChannelBalance /lnrpc.Lightning/ClosedChannels /lnrpc.Lightning/DecodePayReq /lnrpc.Lightning/ExportAllChannelBackups /lnrpc.Lightning/ExportChannelBackup /lnrpc.Lightning/FeeReport /lnrpc.Lightning/ForwardingHistory /lnrpc.Lightning/GetDebugInfo /lnrpc.Lightning/ListAliases /lnrpc.Lightning/ListChannels /lnrpc.Lightning/ListPayments /lnrpc.Lightning/LookupHtlcResolution /lnrpc.Lightning/PendingChannels /lnrpc.Lightning/SubscribeChannelBackups /lnrpc.Lightning/SubscribeChannelEvents /lnrpc.Lightning/SubscribeCustomMessages /lnrpc.Lightning/VerifyChanBackup /routerrpc.Router/BuildRoute /routerrpc.Router/EstimateRouteFee /routerrpc.Router/GetMissionControlConfig /routerrpc.Router/QueryMissionControl /routerrpc.Router/QueryProbability /routerrpc.Router/SubscribeHtlcEvents /routerrpc.Router/TrackPayment /routerrpc.Router/TrackPaymentV2 /routerrpc.Router/TrackPayments /wtclientrpc.WatchtowerClient/GetTowerInfo /wtclientrpc.WatchtowerClient/ListTowers /wtclientrpc.WatchtowerClient/Policy /wtclientrpc.WatchtowerClient/Stats ・おまけ1 RPCメソッド名にopenを含む要素を抽出するコマンド lncli listpermissions | jq '.method_permissions | to_entries[] | select(.key | test("open"; "i"))' { "key": "/lnrpc.Lightning/BatchOpenChannel", "value": { "permissions": [ { "entity": "onchain", "action": "write" }, { "entity": "offchain", "action": "write" } ] } } { "key": "/lnrpc.Lightning/OpenChannel", "value": { "permissions": [ { "entity": "onchain", "action": "write" }, { "entity": "offchain", "action": "write" } ] } } { "key": "/lnrpc.Lightning/OpenChannelSync", "value": { "permissions": [ { "entity": "onchain", "action": "write" }, { "entity": "offchain", "action": "write" } ] } } ・おまけ２ thunderhubで作ったmacaroonはテキストで出力されコピペして使うもので、macaroonファイルになってない。 HEXをmacaroonファイルにするには以下コマンドでできる。HEXをコピペして置換する。またYOURSの箇所を自分でわかりやすい名称に置換すると良い。 echo -n "HEX" | xxd -r -p > YOURS.macaroon thunderhubで"Create Invoices, Get Invoices, Get Wallet Info, Get Payments, Pay Invoices"をチェックして作ったmacaroonのpermissionsは以下となる。 { "version": 2, "location": "lnd", "root_key_id": "0", "permissions": [ "info:read", "invoices:read", "invoices:write", "offchain:read", "offchain:write" ], "caveats": null } ``` offchain:writeはあるがonchain:writeがないのでチャネル開閉はできないはず。

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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

2025-05-25 04:48:11

Michigan lawmakers are unveiling a comprehensive strategy to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

On May 21, Republican Representative Bill Schuette introduced House Bill 4510, a proposal to amend the Michigan Public Employee Retirement System Investment Act. The legislation would allow the state treasurer, currently Rachael Eubanks, to diversify the state’s investments by including cryptocurrencies with an average market capitalization of over $250 million in the past calendar year.

Under current criteria, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are the only cryptocurrencies that meet these selection standards. The proposal specifies that any investment in digital assets must be made through exchange-traded products (spot ETFs) issued by registered investment companies.

Anti-CBDC legislation

Republican Representative Bryan Posthumus is leading the bipartisan initiative behind the second bill, HB 4511, which establishes protections for cryptocurrency holders. The proposal prohibits Michigan from implementing crypto bans or imposing licensing requirements on digital asset holders.

Another key aspect of the legislation is a ban on state officials from supporting or promoting a potential federal central bank digital currency (CBDC). The definition includes the issuance of memorandums or official statements endorsing CBDC proposals related to testing, adoption, or implementation.

Mining and redevelopment of abandoned sites

The third bill, HB 4512, is a proposal led by Democratic Representative Mike McFall for a bipartisan group. This initiative would establish a Bitcoin mining program allowing operators to use abandoned oil and natural gas sites.

The program calls for the appointment of a supervisor tasked with assessing the site’s remaining productive potential, identifying the last operator, and determining the length of abandonment. Prospective participants would need to submit detailed legal documentation of their organizational structure, demonstrate operational expertise in mining, and provide profitability breakeven estimates for their ventures.

The fourth and final bill, HB 4513, also introduced by the bipartisan group led by McFall, focuses on the fiscal aspect of the HB 4512 initiative. The proposal would amend Michigan’s income tax laws to include proceeds generated from the proposed Bitcoin mining program.

The post Michigan: four bills on pension funds, CBDCs, and mining appeared first on Atlas21.

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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

2025-05-24 18:41:43

Why
is
this
not

on
separate
lines

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@ 58937958:545e6994

2025-05-22 12:25:49

Since it's Bitcoin Pizza Day, I made a Bitcoin pizza!

To give it a Japanese twist, I made it a mentaiko pizza (※ mentaiko = spicy cod roe, a popular Japanese ingredient often used in pasta or rice dishes). For the Bitcoin logo, I used a salmon terrine.

Salmon Terrine

I cut out the "B" logo using hanpen (※ hanpen = a soft, white Japanese fish cake made from fish paste and yam). Tip: You can also cut a colored plastic folder into the "B" shape and place it on top as a stencil — makes it easier!

I blended salmon, hanpen, milk, egg, and a bit of salt in a food processor, poured it into a container, and baked it in a water bath.

Pizza Dough

I mixed bread flour, dry yeast, salt, olive oil, and water, then kneaded it with determination! Let it rise for about an hour until fluffy.

Mentaiko Mayo Topping

I mixed mentaiko, mayonnaise, and soy sauce.

I spread out the dough, added the mentaiko mayo, cheese, and corn, then baked it. Halfway through, I added thin slices of mochi (rice cake). After baking, I topped it with seaweed and the salmon terrine to finish!

Lots to reflect on

About the Terrine

In the video, you’ll see I divided the terrine into two portions. I was worried that the salmon and hanpen parts might end up looking too similar in color, making the “B” logo hard to see.

So for one half, I added ketchup, thinking: “Maybe this will make the red more vibrant?” But even with the ketchup, it didn’t change much.

The Mochi

I accidentally bought thinly sliced mochi, but I realized it might burn too easily as a pizza topping. Regular mochi with standard thickness is probably better.

I added the mochi halfway through baking, opening the oven once, but now I’m thinking that might have lowered the oven temp too much.

Lessons Learned

This was my first and only attempt—no test run beforehand— so I ended up with a long list of lessons learned. In the future, I should definitely do a trial version first… But you know… salmon and mentaiko are expensive! (excuses, excuses)

Cheese

I wanted to do that Instagram-worthy cheese pull moment, but nope. No stretch. None at all. I think that kind of thing needs a totally different kind of cheese or prep. Will have to experiment more.

Taste Test

Actually really good. I usually don’t eat mentaiko mayo myself, and I’m a Margherita pizza fan at heart. But this was surprisingly nice. A little rich in flavor—made me crave a bowl of rice. Next time, I might skip the soy sauce to tone it down a bit.

nostr:nevent1qqsrhularycewltxz88e9wrwutkqu5pkylh3vxrmys2e0nuh7c2h06qgqp9zc

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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

2025-05-25 04:48:10

A fake Uber driver steals $73,000 in XRP and $50,000 in Bitcoin after drugging an American tourist.

A U.S. citizen vacationing in the United Kingdom fell victim to a scam that cost him $123,000 in cryptocurrencies stored on his smartphone. The man was drugged by an individual posing as an Uber driver.

According to My London, Jacob Irwin-Cline had spent the evening at a London nightclub, consuming several alcoholic drinks before requesting an Uber ride home. The victim admitted he hadn’t carefully verified the booking details on his device, mistakenly getting into a private taxi driven by someone who, at first glance, resembled the expected Uber driver but was using a completely different vehicle.

Once inside the car, the American tourist reported that the driver offered him a cigarette, allegedly laced with scopolamine — a rare and powerful sedative. Irwin-Cline described how the smoke made him extremely docile and fatigued, causing him to lose consciousness for around half an hour.

Upon waking, the driver ordered the victim to get out of the vehicle. As Irwin-Cline stepped out, the man suddenly accelerated, running him over and fleeing with his mobile phone, which contained the private keys and access to his cryptocurrencies. Screenshots provided to MyLondon show that $73,000 worth of XRP and $50,000 in bitcoin had been transferred to various wallets.

This incident adds to a growing trend of kidnappings, extortions, armed robberies, and ransom attempts targeting crypto executives, investors, and their families.

Just a few weeks ago, the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, CEO of crypto exchange Paymium, were targeted in a kidnapping attempt in Paris. The incident took place in broad daylight when attackers tried to force the family into a parked vehicle. However, Noizat’s daughter managed to fight off the assailants.

The post American tourist drugged and robbed: $123,000 in crypto stolen in London appeared first on Atlas21.

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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

2025-05-24 18:17:22

Vestibulum a nunc a sapien aliquam rhoncus\ Sed sem turpis, scelerisque sed augue ut, faucibus blandit lectus

Maecenas commodo, augue in placerat lacinia, lorem libero convallis mi, eu fringilla velit arcu id sem. In ac metus vitae sapien dignissim luctus

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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

2025-05-25 04:48:09

Banking giants JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are in talks to develop a unified stablecoin solution.

According to the Wall Street Journal on May 22, some of the largest financial institutions in the United States are exploring the possibility of joining forces to launch a stablecoin.

Subsidiaries of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have initiated preliminary discussions for a joint stablecoin issuance, according to sources close to the matter cited by the WSJ. Also at the negotiating table are Early Warning Services, the parent company of the digital payments network Zelle, and the payment network Clearing House.

The talks are reportedly still in the early stages, and any final decision could change depending on regulatory developments and market demand for stablecoins.

Stablecoin regulation

On May 20, the US Senate voted 66 to 32 to advance discussion of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), a specific law to regulate stablecoins. The bill outlines a regulatory framework for stablecoin collateralization and mandates compliance with anti-money laundering rules.

David Sacks, White House crypto advisor, expressed optimism about the bill’s bipartisan approval. However, senior Democratic Party officials intend to amend the bill to include a clause preventing former President Donald Trump and other US officials from profiting from stablecoins.

Demand for stablecoins has increased, with total market capitalization rising to $245 billion from $205 billion at the beginning of the year, a 20% increase.

The post Major US banks consider launching a joint stablecoin appeared first on Atlas21.

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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

2025-05-24 18:17:09

Ovaj post sam objavio 24.01.2024. godine na Redditu povodom tri decenije od uvođenja Novog dinara kao rešenja za hiperinflaciju u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji na šta su pojedini besni nokoineri sa te društvene mreže osuli drvlje i kamenje na mene. Od starih budalaština da je Bitkoin bezvredan, da nije oblik novca već finansijsko ulaganje, preko pravdanja svrhe inflacije, sve do potpune nemoći da se argumentima opovrgne nepobitna istina i pozivanja moderatora da me banuju. 🙃

Cena Bitkoina tada je bila oko $40.000. :)

Osim glavnog posta, ovde ću navesti i moje odgovore na neutemeljene i neinformisane tvrdnje besnih nokoinera. :) Da se sačuva od zaborava!

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Juče se navršilo 30 godina "Deda Avramove reforme".

Dan kada je rođen novi dinar, a Deda Avram sasekao hiperinflaciju

Kako nas je deda Avram spasio pre 30 godina: Neverovatno svedočenje tvorca „super dinara“ o jednoj od najgorih godina u istoriji Srbije

Dva jajeta – nedeljna profesorska plata: Kako se živelo u hiperinflaciji i šta je uradio Avramović

Vikipedija: Jugoslovenski dinar

„U julu '93. godine u Jugoslaviji nisi mogao skoro ništa da kupiš i niko za dinare nije hteo ništa da prodaje“, pisao je Avramović. Centralno-bankarska prevara se nastavlja jer je već do kraja 1995. dinar oslabio prema marki za 70% (1 dinar = 3.4 DM), a u decembru 2000. je taj kurs već bio 30.5 dinara za 1 DM (-96.7% od uvođenja novog dinara). To samo pokazuje da redenominacija valute tj. "brisanje nula" nije nikako čudo i viđano je puno puta kroz istoriju)

Ako je reformom iz januara '94 god. 1 novi dinar vredeo kao 1 nemačka marka, zatim od 2002. uveden evro čime je realna vrednost marke (samim tim i dinara) prepolovljena, a danas 1 EUR vredi oko 117 RSD, to znači da je "deda Avramov dinar" prema evru već obezvređen 59.91 puta za 30 godina. Dakle devalvacija dinara od 5991% od 1994. godine, a svakako još veća izražena kroz dobra i usluge jer su i nemačka marka do 2002. i evro od svog uvođenja iste godine prošli kroz sopstvenu inflaciju. Sam evro je izgubio oko 38% vrednosti od 2002. godine. Tako da se može reći da i "deda Avramov dinar" već uveliko prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju koja je samo razvučena na mnogo duži vremenski period (ne brinite - znam "zvaničnu" definiciju hiperinflacije - još jedan "gaslighting" centralno-bankarskog kartela da zabašuri šta se iza brda valja). Jer šta je inflacija od preko 5991% nego višedecenijska hiperinflacija?! Kako ne shvata gigantske razmere ove prevare?!

ISPRAVKA: Dinar nije nominalno izgubio 23400% (234x) vrednosti prema nemačkoj marki/evru od 1994. godine, već 59.91x odnosno 5991%. I danas na sajtu NBS postoji zvanični srednji kurs marke prema dinaru od 59,91:1. Realno, obezvređivanje dinara i evra prema robama i uslugama je puno veće, pošto su cene roba i usluga izražene u evrima ubrzo udvostručene u periodu nakon uvođenja evra. Hvala članu DejanJwtq na ispravci i izvinjenje svima od mene zbog greške.

Dafiment i Jugoskandik ("Dafina i Jezda") su bili samo državna konstrukcija da se izvuku devize iz ruku naivnih investitora da bi te devize nešto kasnije poslužile kao tobožnja rezerva za novi dinar. Ova gigantska prevara je unapred bila planirana, a Deda Avram iskorišćen kao marioneta tadašnjeg režima.

Inače lista država koje su izvršile redenominaciju valute kroz "brisanje nula" je poprilično dugačka i radi se o uobičajenoj pojavi kroz istoriju još od Haitija 1813. godine, a poslednji put su to uradile Sijera Leone i Kolumbija 2021. godine. Odavno je zaboravljeno da je (SR) Jugoslavija devedesetih to učinila još 1990. (10.000:1), 1992. (10:1), 1993. (1.000.000:1) i 1994. pre Avramovića (1.000.000.000∶1) ali je ovaj dinar trajao samo 23 dana. Tako da Deda Avram nije izmislio toplu vodu.

U SFRJ je izvršena jedna redenominacija 1966. godine u odnosu 10.000:1.

Wikipedia: Redenomination

Kome i dalje nije jasno zašto Bitkoin neka više puta pažljivo pročita ove tekstove iznad: oblik novca koji se ne može redenominirati, veoma lako konfiskovati i izdavati bez ikakve kontrole i pokrića. Potpuno nezavistan od kaprica korumpiranih i od realnosti otuđenih političara i centralnih bankara. Veoma je bitno da postoji ovakav oblik novca koji nije podložan ovakvim manipulacijama od strane ljudskog faktora i da postoji slobodan izbor da se taj oblik novca odabere za štednju i transakcije: barem od strane onih koji ga razumeju, ovi koji ne žele da razumeju neka i dalje pristaju da budu pljačkani - njima ionako nema pomoći.

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Komentari

brainzorz: Da, ali ako cemo realno bitkoin ne sluzi kao oblik novca, vec kao finansijsko ulaganje.

Bar je tako za nas i vecinu ljudi po svetu u praktičnom smislu. Jer 99.99% ljudi ili koliko vec prime platu u svojoj lokalnoj valuti, trose istu na redovan zivot, a ostatak (ako ga ima) investiraju. Slazem se da lokalne valute imaju svoj neki rizik, koji je veci u banana drzavi i da cuvanje svog kapitala u turbulentnom periodu u istoj je jako losa ideja.

Kada tako posmatras onda se mogu vuci pararele izmedju ostalih aseta, poput ETFova na primer i onda dolazimo do gomile problema sa bitkoinom.

@BTCSRB: Bitkoin se ne može porediti sa ETF-ovima pošto ETF-ove i ostale investicione instrumente ne možeš koristiti kao novac jer oni nisu "bearer assets" kao što jeste BTC. BTC eliminiše potpuno inflaciju (jer džabe ti keš u slamarici kao "bearer asset" kada je podložan inflaciji) i potrebu za posrednikom kod elektronskih plaćanja.

brainzorz: Ali on to eleminise samo u teoriji, sad da odem u pekaru, moram platiti u lokalnoj valuti, sad da li cu prodati bitkoin ili etf, prilicno je slicno.

Jedino sto mogu bitkoin zamenuti uzivo (ilegalno) sa nekim, pa tu jeste zamenjen posrednik. Ali provizije povlacenja su uglavnom zanemarljive, naspram ostalih parametara investicionog sredstva.

Neke stvari se mogu direktno platiti za bitkoin, ali to je ekstremno retko u stvarnom zivotu vecine ljudi.

@BTCSRB: Slažem se ali u uslovima hiperinflacije i visoke inflacije kakvu danas imamo u Argentini, Venecueli, Zimbabveu, Libanu, Turskoj itd. sve više ljudi direktno vrši transakcije u kriptovalutama, naročito "stablecoinima" poput USDT Tethera. Priznajem da u tim transakcijama BTC zaostaje upravo zbog volatilnosti ali je vršenje brzih i jeftinih transakcija svakako moguće putem Lightning mreže. Sve te lokalne valute su izgubile značajnu vrednost i prema USDT i prema BTC-u, odnosno BTC konstantno probija rekordnu vrednost kada se denominuje u tim valutama. I u tim državama je adopcija kriptovaluta najraširenija.

HunterVD: Kako valuta u koju se upumpavaju nepostojeci dolari i evri moze biti realna i dobra. A USDT tek da ne spominjem. Mozes uvek revi jer joj ljudi veruju, al ta vera u nesto ide samo do odredjenog nivoa.

@BTCSRB: Godinama kupujem BTC od svake plate, praktično štedim u njemu i kupovna moć mi vremenom raste denominirana u evrima i dinarima. To isto rade na desetine hiljada ljudi širom sveta. Kako su ti realni dinari i evri koje ubacujem svakog meseca koje sam zaradio od svog realnog rada - "nepostojeći"?

Kako dolari i evri koji se štampaju ni iz čega mogu biti realni i dobri kao valuta?

HunterVD: Pa eto bas to. Ulaze se nepostojeci novac u BTC i onda se prica o nekoj novoj valuti. Nije sija nego vrat, BTC ima jedino vrednost dok se upumpava taj lazni novac u njega. FIAT novac kolko tolko nastaje radom i proizvodnjom dobara, ne sav FIAT novac al neki deo, dok se BTC zasniva skroz na upumpavanje tog istog FIAT novca i dobroj volji i zeljama da magicne brojke idu navise.

@BTCSRB: Itekako je moguće izraziti cenu svih ostalih dobara i usluga kroz BTC i postojanje i vrednost BTC-a uopšte ne zavisi od fiat novca. Štaviše, gotova sva dobra i usluge dugoročno postaju jeftiniji kada se mere kroz BTC. Sutra kada bi fiat novac nestao BTC bi i dalje imao vrednost, čak i veću nego danas.

https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/

HunterVD: Naravno da je moguce izraziti cene svakodnevnih proizvoda u BTCu. Cene svakodnevnih proizvoda je moguce izraziti u cemu god pozelis, evo npr broj radnih sati koji je potreban da se proizvede taj proizvod i onda se uporedi sa cenom radnih sati i cene na polici, mozes ga uracunavati i u dobrima , jedan iphone kosta tolko i tolko KG juneceg mesa..... nista cudno. Takodje cene proizvoda pokazuju pad u odnosu sa BTCom jer je BTC masivno porastao u poslednjih 5-6 godina. Sta ce biti kad BTC stagnira ili pada kako se u tom periodu odnose cene, a da BTC je store of value i namenjen je samo da se cuva izvinte molim vas moja greska. Ni druge kripto valute nisu nista bolje. Ljudi koji su zaradili na BTCu svaka cast eto imali su pameti i srece , al sad kako je cena sve veca, inflacija sve losija i kamatne stope sve vise postace sve teze i teze dolaziti do novca a kamo li intvestirati ga u nesto rizicno ko kripto valute tako da ce i BTC sve manje rasti sto zbog velicine market cap-a sto zbog toga sto ljudi i firme imaju sve manje novca za ulagati. Dal ce btc moci da se uzbori sa inflacijom i losim uslovima to tek treba da se vidi. Tako da videcemo u narednom periodu koliko ce se ta priva o BTC kao store of value i nacinu odbrane od inflacije obistiniti. Licno ne verujem da ce BTC ikad biti zvanicno sredstvo placanja.

@BTCSRB: Cena svega se može izraziti kroz sve ostalo ali šta od svega toga najbolje vrši funkciju novca? BTC bolje vrši funkciju novca u većini okolnosti od gotovo svih stvari.

Šta će biti sa BTC videće se i oni koji veruju u njega će biti najzaslužniji za njegov uspeh jer su obezbeđivali potražnju kada su kola išla nizbrdo i za to biti asimetrično nagrađeni, ali će i puno izgubiti ako se pokaže da nisu u pravu. Pukovnici ili pokojnici. Po meni je to cilj zbog koga vredi rizikovati, pa i bankrotirati a cilj je da se centralno-bankarski kartel učini manje relevantnim.

Znaš i sam da fiat sistem ne može da preživi i izbegne imploziju bez konstantnog uvećanja mase novca u opticaju i zato se uopšte ne plašim za BTC i spavam mirno. BTC sigurno neće rasti istom brzinom kao prvih 15 godina ali moje očekivanje je svakako ubedljivo nadmašivanje svetske inflacije i obezvređivanja. Ne vidim kako sistem može da opstane bez novog QE kada god se on desi, u suprotnom imamo deflatornu spiralu.

Ne mora da bude zvanično sredstvo plaćanja, dovoljno da meni kao pojedincu služi za to dok god ima ljudi koji ga prihvataju, a ima ih puno. I da niko u tome ne može da nas spreči.

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loldurrr: Ali i BTC je postao, u neku ruku, berzanska roba. Imaš market cap izražen u dolarima, koji je danas, npr. 2 triliona $, za mjesec dana 500 milijardi. Isto kao i dolar, samo volatilnije. Zato i kažem, da je to sve rezultat ponude i tražnje. Hipotetički, ja da imam milion BTC i odlučim to danas prodati, enormno ću oboriti cenu BTC. Ako je to valuta nezavisna od vanjskih uticaja - zašto će pasti toliko, kada imamo ograničenu količinu BTC-a. Svima je i dalje u podsvesti vrednost BTC izražena u USD, tako da je to isto kao i dinar, franak, akcija CocaCola i sl. Bar za sada...

A mogućnosti za korištenje BTC za robna plaćanja su mizerna. Ima li na vidiku mogućnosti da se vrednost nafte počne izražavati u BTC?

@BTCSRB: Meriti Bitkoin direktno prema robama i uslugama je itekako moguće i kada ga tako meriš, a ne prema fiat novcu, dugoročno cene gotovo svih roba i usluga padaju prema Bitkoinu. Cene svega izražene kroz BTC neće nestati ni u slučaju nestanka fiat novca, dolar sutra da prestane da postoji nikoga ne sprečava da izražava cene svega kroz BTC. Dolar i ostale valute nisu potrebni Bitkoinu.

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Unlikely-Put-5524: Imam samo jedno pitanje za one "koji vide iza svega" i pronikli su bankarsku prevare da porobi čovečanstvo... Kako ne postoji mogućnost da je BTC i kripto nastao iz iste kuhinje i predstavlja ultimativni način za porobljavanje?

2% novčanika poseduje 95% svog BTC-a koji nije izgubljen. Znači da centralizacija može biti maksimalna...

@BTCSRB: Količina BTC-a u posedu ne daje kontrolu nad pravilima protokola i većinski vlasnici ne mogu da štampaju nove novčiće i tako uvećaju konačnu količinu u opticaju. Mogu samo da kratkoročno obore cenu i tako samo ostanu sa manje BTC-a koji imaju pošto će tržište vremenom apsorbovati te dampovane koine.

Unlikely-Put-5524: A mogu i dugoročno da obore cenu. Hajde da kažemo da imaš sada 10 BTC-a gde svaki vredi 40k

Veliki dumpu-ju ceo svoj bag u kontinutitetu kao što sad radi GS i posle godinu dana tvoj BTC sad vredi 4k, zašto misliš da bi ljudi nastavili da ga drže? Posebno ako znamo da ga 97% kupuje da bi zaradili, a ne zato što žele da ga koriste kao sredstvo plaćanja.

Ja bih ore BTC gledao kao commodity, jer sa svojim deflatornim svojstvima ne može biti valuta za plaćanje.

Takođe postoji i doomsday scenario gde jednostavno mogu svi da se dogovore da je ilegalan i to je onda to. Ovo mi deluje kao gotovo neverovatno, ali po meni je bilo koji maksimalizam potpuno detinjasto razmišljanje.

@BTCSRB: Pa padao je toliko puta za preko 70% i uvek se vraćao jer si uvek imao ljude koji su bili spremni da ga kupuju po bilo kojoj ceni, uključujući i mene. Pošto se ne može štampati, na kraju će ovi prodavci ostati bez BTC-a za prodaju i tržište apsorbovati čak i njihov "sell pressure". A ovi veliki koji drže tolike količine itekako dobro znaju vrednost toga što poseduju i nema smisla da svu količinu koju drže prodaju za inflatorni novac - prodavaće da bi finansirali svoj životni stil ili investiraju u biznise ili će ga koristiti kao kolateral za fiat pozajmice - ako raspolažu tolikim količinama i mogu da kontrolišu tržište nemaju strah da će im kolateral biti likvidiran.

Većina ljudi su fiat maksimalisti samim tim što su 100% u fiat novcu pa ne razmišljaju u pravcu doomsday scenarija kakav je upravo bila hiperinflacija devedesetih.

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Romeo_y_Cohiba: Niko ti ne brani da ulažeš u bitcoin pod uslovom da znaš da je rizičniji od gotovog novca, štednje po viđenju, oročene štednje, obveznica, nekretnina, akcija, raznoraznih etfova, private equitya i derivata.

Drugim rečima ako ti je ok da danas uložiš 1000e, da za nedelju dana to vredi 500e, za mesec 1500 a za pola godina 300e ili 0 samo napred. Većini ljudi to nije ok.

Razlog zašto pamtimo Avrama je jer njegov dinar i dan danas koristimo. Prethodne uzastopne reforme nisu uspele kao što si i sam primetio.

Takođe, nije u pitanju "centralno-bankarska" prevara jer se ništa od toga ne bi desilo da ovom "odozgo" nisu zatrebale pare za finansiranje izvesnih stvari.

I dan danas, izvesni političar(i) izađu na TV i kažu da su "našli" novac za neki svoj genijalni plan i ljudi to puše. To u prevodu najčešće znači da će da nagna centralnu banku da mu doštampa novca i to nema veze sa bankama nego politikom..

@BTCSRB: Za investicione instrumente koje si naveo treba videti koliko su uspešno nadvladavali inflaciju prethodnih decenija i da li su očuvali kupovnu moć. Za štednju u banci i obveznice se i iz daleka vidi da nisu. US obveznice su u septembru imale drawdown od 48% od ATH iz 2020, a kao važe sa sigurnu investiciju. Čak i u momentu dospeća posle 10-30 godina jako teško čuvaju vrednost od inflacije.

A sada se zapitaj: da li zaista misliš da političari kontrolišu banke i bankare ili je možda obrnuto? Nisu političari ti koji su vlasnici krupnog kapitala.

Romeo_y_Cohiba: Ne investiraju svi na 10-30 godina za potrebe penzije. To je samo jedan od mnogo vidova i razloga investiranja. Nadvladavanje inflacije je isto tako samo jedan od kriterijuma. Samo pogledaš u šta jedan penzioni fond u SAD-u investira(hint: nije btc i nisu samo akcije). Npr. neki penzioni fondovi su od skoro počeli da investiraju u private equity ali isključivo do 15% veličine portfolija. Počeće i sa kriptom u nekom trenutku ali mogu da potpišem da će biti u još manjem procentu nego PE. Niko nije blesav da grune teško stečeni novac u nešto tako rizično osim u jako malim iznosima.

Ne znam ko koga kontroliše ali Avram je bio daleko manji baja od Slobe 90ih i pitao se za stvari samo u meri koliko mu je bio dozvoljeno da se pita. Ratovanje košta i finansira se štampanjem novca, nisu to neke neshvatljive stvari. Da ne pričam da smo bili pod apsolutnim sankcijama celog sveta.

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Virtual_Plenty_6047: Npr jedan od velikih uspeha Japana od pre par decenija je zahvaljujući devalvaciji njihove valute, pa samim tim izvoz im je bio relativno jeftin. Naš dinar je jak, i to odgovara uvozničkom lobiju.

Nažalost mi ionako ništa ne proizvodimo tako da ne verujem da bi nešto pomoglo ako bi devalvirali dinar. Al svakako ovo je jedna viša ekonomija za koju naši političari nisu dorasli.

@BTCSRB: Gde je običan čovek u tom velikom japanskom uspehu? Postali su zemlja starih i nesrećnih mladih ljudi koji ne mogu da pobegnu iz "hamster wheel-a". Imaju "debt to GDP" od preko 260%. Taj dug nikada neće vratiti, a uz to će povući u ambis pola sveta jer najveći držaoci američkog duga - 14.5%. Spolja gladac, iznutra jadac. Iako je malo degutantno da mi iz Srbije komentarišemo Japance, opet pitam: gde je prosečan Japanac u celoj ovoj igri?

Why Japan Is Facing a Financial Disaster

Preporučujem da pogledate dokumentarac "Princes of the Yen | The Hidden Power of Central Banks" snimljenom po istoimenoj knjizi profesora Riharda Vernera koji je otac kvantitativnog popuštanja (quantitative easing) i ekspert za japansku ekonomiju i bankarski sistem.

Virtual_Plenty_6047: Zato sam rekao od pre nekoliko decenija. Jer su do pre nekih 30 godina bili 50 godina ispred celog sveta, sad su 20 godina iza naprednog sveta. Japanci su svako specifični. Poenta mog komentara da postoji razlog za neke zemlje da oslabe svoju valutu, i može itekako dobro da radi ako se radi u sinergiji sa nekim drugim ekonomskim merama. Tako da odgovor na to opet pitam, ne znam gde je prosečni Japanac, uskoro tamo trebam da idem pa ću ti reći. :'D

Odgledao sam ja ovaj dokumentarac odavno, super je. Pročitao mnoge knjige, a ponajviše od Austrijske ekonomske škole gde su pojedinci (Hayek) bili prvi koji su zagovarali novu decentralizovanu valutu, bili su u toj školi mnogi koji su prvi pričali o problemu inflacije i šta je tačno inflacija, ali su bili i za kapitalizam. Ali ovo je zaista jedna visoka ekonomija, videćeš da nije baš sve tako jednostavno kao što misliš.

Malo si previše u kriptovalutama pa gledaš na sve drugo u ekonomiji sa prekorom, pogotovu na kapitalizam. Evo i ja sam sam dobro investiran u kripto (uglavnom u BTC) pa sam itekako svestan da sve to može na kraju da bude potpuna pizdarija.

p.s. Knjiga za preporuku: 23 stvari koje vam ne kazu o kapitalizmu

@BTCSRB: Nisam u kriptovalutama nego isključivo u BTC.

Nisam ja protiv kapitalizma samo što nije pravi kapitalizam kada ne postoji slobodno tržište novca, pa samim tim ne postoji uopšte slobodno tržište koliko god se činilo tako. Kada su ekonomski subjekti prisiljeni da koriste određeni oblik novca, a monetarna politika se centralno planira - po meni tu nema slobodnog tržišta niti kapitalizma. Npr. formiranje cene Bitkoina i transakcionih naknada je čisto slobodno tržište jer tu nema "bailout-a", a BTC mining industrija je pravi primer slobodnog tržišta u kapitalizmu. Čista ponuda i potražnja bez intervencionizma. Ako si neprofitabilan nema ti spasa i bankrotiraćeš i nema nikoga ko će ti priteći u pomoć. Niko nije "too big to fail".

Znam da sam se ovde usredsredio usko na jednu industriju ali se može primeniti na celokupnu ekonomiju. Države i centralne banke su suvišne i apsolutno pokvare sve čega se dotaknu pa će u slučaju potpune pizdarije odgovornost biti na njima, a ne na Bitkoinu i njegovim držaocima.

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kutija_keksa: Evo zašto btc nije pogodan kao valuta:

-Volatilna vrednost. Vrednost btc se menja i do 200% godišnje, dok dolar ne trpi inflaciju vecu od 10% godišnje (mada je u redovnim uslovima tipa 3%). Čak i dinar, ako gledaš realnu kupovnu moć u prodavnici nema volatilnost preko 30% na godišnjem nivou (jedno 7 puta nižu od BTC) Ako danas kupim BTC u vrednosti od 15 USD ne znam da li ću sutra moći da kupim 10 ili 20 USD za isti taj BTC.

-„Gas fees” koji se plaćaju na svaku transakciju, u poređenjusa kešom koji nema takvih problema.

-Spor transfer novca. Arhitektura blockchaina ne dozvoljava mreži da procesuira više od 10 transakcija po sekundi, što značida na transakciju možete čekati i po nekoloo sati, u poređenju sa kešom (bez odugovlačenja) ili debitnim karticama (10 sekundi do 10 minuta). Visa i MasterCard procesuiraju hiljadu puta više transakcija po sekundi.

-Retko ko eksplicitno prima BTC, tako da ćete plaćati menjačnici na kursu u oba smera, i pritom čekati menjačnicu.

-Podložan je manipulacijama velikih igrača poput Ilona Maska i velikih banki koje su u zadnjih pet godina debelo uložile u kripto. Fiat je na milosti države i njenih građana, dok je BTC na milost privatnih investitora. Kome verujete više?

-SVE BTC transakcije su jsvne, ako neko zna koji novčanik je vaš lako zna i koliko para ste kada slali kome, dok fizičke novčanice nemaju taj problem.

-Vrednost i upotreljivost BTC ne garantuje niko, dok vrednost i upotrebljivost fiat valute barem donekle garantuje država. Na primer, Srbija garantuje da je dinar upotrebljiv jer zahteva da vodu, struju, poreze, namete i takse plaćaš u dinarima, a i javni sektor (10% čitavog stanovništva) isplaćuje isključivo u dinarima.

OP očigledno ima jako ostrašćenu ideološku perspektivu... Ja nisam stručnjak, ali je moj otac pisao naučne radove o blockchainu dok je bio na doktorskim studijama, još kad je pomisao o BTC vrednijem od sto dolada bila smešna, tako da znam nešto malo kroz priče sa njim. Uostalom, sve o čemu pričam lako je proveriti pomoću javnih podataka. Ono što OP piše je jednim delom tačno, ali su iznete samo one informacije koje idu u prilog BTC.

Kripto kao pobuna protiv fiata, centralnih banaka i vlada je imao ideološke korene kod anarhista na internetu devedestih, međutim od njihovih belih papira i špekulacija dobili smo nešto što je kao valuta beskorisno. BTC može biti investicija, ako su ljudi iskreni sa sobom, ali ideja o valuti je prevaziđena. Ako i neka kripto valuta drži do toga onda je to Monero koji bar ima anonimnost.

@BTCSRB: Ne ulazeći u sve iznete navode taksativno, ipak moram da prokomentarišem neke od nepreciznih ili netačnih navoda.

Transakcione naknade kod Bitkoina se ne zovu "gas fees" već "transaction fees". Kod keša nema takvih problema ali ga ne možete poslati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika. To mora da ima svoju cenu pošto BTC majneri moraju da imaju neki podsticaj da uključe nečiju transakciju u blok koji je ograničene veličine. BTC "fee market" je najslobodnije tržište na svetu. Fiat novac nemate mogućnost da pošaljete na daljinu bez posrednika koji takođe naplaćuje nekada dosta skupe naknade.

Besmisleno je porediti blokčejn kao "settlement layer" sa Visom i Mastercardom koje ne služe za finalno poravnanje. Glavni Bitkoin blokčejn se može pre uporediti s SWIFT-om ili FedWire-om kod kojih je jednom poravnata transakcija nepovratna, a Mastercard/Visa sa BTC "Lightning Network-om" koji služi za brza i jeftina plaćanja. Otac je trebalo da Vas nauči o Lightning mreži, kako funkcioniše i da je sposobna da procesuira više miliona transakcija u sekundi. Lightning mreža takođe nudi veći nivo privatnosti od glavnog blokčejna ali puno manju sigurnost.

Ne bih se složio da je fiat na milosti isključivo države i građana, samo ću spomenuti Crnu sredu iz septembra 1992. godine i spekulativni napad na britansku funtu.

BTC transakcije su javne ali su pseudonimne što znači da je jako teško utvrditi identitet ukoliko adresa nije povezana sa identitetom korisnika. Generisanje BTC adrese ne zahteva nikakvu identifikaciju ("krvnu sliku") za razliku od otvaranja bankovnog računa. Može se generisati neograničen broj adresa i na razne načine prekinuti i zamaskirati veza transakcija između njih radi očuvanja privatnosti. Ponovo, fizičke novčanice ne možemo slati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika, podložne su konfiskaciji, uništenju i obezvređivanju.

Upotrebljivost Bitkoina garantuje "open source" kod, energija, matematika i kriptografija. To su mnogo jače garancije nego obećanja bilo koje države koja su toliko puta u istoriji izigrale poverenje sopstvenog stanovništva - poput Jugoslavije devedesetih.

Ja sam BTC spomenuo kao potencijalno rešenje za (hiper)inflaciju tek u kraćem delu na kraju teksta, a od Vas i od ostalih komentatora sam dobio nesrazmeran odgovor usmeren na Bitkoin, a puno manje usmeren na navode iz najvećeg dela posta.

Tako ste i vi izneli isključivo informacije koje ne idu u prilog BTC-a, a potpuno ignorisali sve očigledne nedostatke fiat novca (kako u fizičkom, tako i u digitalnom obliku) koji su se i ispoljili tokom hiperinflacije devedesetih, a ispoljavaju se i dan-danas.

Svako dobro!

kutija_keksa: Zato su i „Gas fees” pod navodnicima.

Ne vidim zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima.

Ali, čak i da je dobro imati slobodno tržište, morate primetiti da BTC kopanje nije tako slobodno. Postojanje ASIC mašina znači da se kopanje prevashodno isplati velikim igračima (ne mislim na likove sa 3 riser kartice u PC, nego na kineze sa skladištima teških preko milion u opremi). Takođe, te velike operacije organi vlasti mogu zaustaviti kad im se prohte (Kina).

Jako je teško izvući BTC anonimno bez gubitka kod menjača -- pojedinca ili non KYC institucije.

Što se upotrebljivosti BTC tiče, šta meni garantuje da ću imati na šta da potrošim BTC? To je ključno pitanje. A kasa Jugoslovenski fiat nije bio upotebljiv, vidim da Nemački jeste. Isto tako, mislim da će USD biti upotrebljiv dugo, a kada USD bude neupotrebljiv društvo će ionako biti u apokalipsi gde papir nije važan koliko i hrana, utočište, voda, radio, municija, lekovi i vatreno oružje.

Naravno da iznosim samo informacije koje proizilaze iz nedostataka, to je balans postu i komentarima. Da su ljudi samo blatili kripto moj komentar bi mnogo više ličio na originalni post nego na moj prošli komentar. Ja se sa mnogim tvrdnjama u postu slažem delimično ili potpuno, samo želim da pružim kontekst za tumačenje toga.

Ideološki su mi Cryptopunks potpuno zanimljivi, ali cinizam je opravdan kada se u obzir uzme priča. Ljudi su želeli da se odupru bankama, vladama, kontroli i prismotri. Izmislili su tehnologiju. Počeli su da koriste i popularizuju tu tehnologiju. U prostor su ušle banke i vlade, kupovanjem, prodajom i praćenjem samog tržišta (danas sve velike menjačnice imaju KYC procedure). Kao u matriksu, kontrolisana opozicija. Ok, ovo je lična teorija zavere u koju ni ja ne verujem u potpunosti.

Ako govorimo o crypto kao valuti mislim da je XMR mnogo bolja VALUTA od BTC, dok je mnogo gora investicija. Jednostavno se slažem sa političkim i ideološkim ciljevima pionira kripto valuta, ali smatram da su oni ogromnim delom iznevereni zbog ulaska banaka i država u celu priču, te njihova stara rešenja više ne rešavaju originalne probleme.

@BTCSRB: BTC kao neutralni novac je za svakoga, pa i za bankare i države. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga kupe na tržištu i stave ga u kakav god instrument, pa i ETF. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga konfiskuju od onih koji nisu dobro obezbedili svoje ključeve. Države su regulisale ono što su mogle, poput menjačnica, kroz AML/KYC procedure ali kakve to veze ima sa BTC-om? Na protokol kao protokol nisu mogle da utiču.

Ko želi i dalje može koristiti BTC kako je i prvobitno predviđeno - za p2p transakcije i skladištenje vrednosti u "self custody-u". Bitkoin je i dalje "bearer asset" otporan na cenzuru i konfiskaciju. Ne vidim da je taj pravac promenjen samo zato što su ušle banke i države. Možda nije u duhu Bitkoina da ga kupuju fondovi pa ga prodaju upakovanog u ETF. Najmanje je u duhu bitkoina da se nekome zabrani da ga kupuje.

Kako to mislite "ne vidite zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima? Na decentralizaciji mininga se radi (StratumV2 protkol, Ocean pool...), a kineski primer je samo pokazatelj koliko je otporno: nakon zabrane raširilo se dodatno po svetu, a u Kini se i dalje nalazi 21% hešrejta. Majneri imaju veoma male margine profita zbog same prirode rudarenja i halvinga pa će bilo kakav "fck around" poput cenzure transakcija verovatno značiti bankrot.

Možemo do sutra pričati o XMR vs BTC i navešću puno razloga zašto XMR ne može i neće zaživeti kao novac, a pre svega je manjak decentralizacije (neograničena veličina blokčejna) i otpornost na državni napad - sve što Bitkoin ima. Kada je novac u pitanju pobednik nosi sve i tu je Monero već izgubio, dok će BTC poboljšanu privatnost obezbediti na ostalim nivoima, sidechainovima itd (Lightning, Liquid, Cashu, Fedimint, Ark i ko zna šta sve što još i ne postoji - nivo developmenta u Bitkoin prostoru je ogroman).

Dolar će uvek u nekom obliku biti upotrebljiv ali ne znači da će zauvek ostati svetska rezervna valuta, kao što i danas postoji funta ali odavno nije više ono što je bila na vrhuncu Britanske imperije.

kutija_keksa: Pa ti protokoli sprečavaju pljude da anonimno kupe BTC.

Mislim, BTC realno ima neku primenu, ali ja ga danas npr. imam čisto kao neku malu investicijicu, i to još od doba kad je kopanje sa 2 grafičke u kućnom PC bilo isplativo po skupoj struji. Ali BTC prosto nije dobra alternativa fizičkom novcu na nivou države zbog volatilnosti i manjka kontrole. Jedna ogromna poluga države je puštanje u promet novog novca, i tako se kontroliše inflacija, pored menjanja kamatnih stopa. Bez mogućnosti štampe gubi se i taj faktor kontrole. A inflacija od 2-3% godišnje je zdrava, dok je za ekonomiju deflacija (kojoj je BTC bar delimično sklon) haos, jer smanjuje ekonomsku aktivnost i investicije...

Što se tiče državnog napada na XMR, misliš na to kako jedna država može da realistično sprovede 51% napad?

XMR nije vrhovna valuta ali meni se sviđa kako za njega nema ASIC mašina, kako je anoniman u smislu da ne možeš lako da provališ ko kome koliko i kada šalje šta... Mislim da će XMR sigurno u toj privacy niši zameniti neka druga valuta kroz 10-15 godina koja ima bolji algoritam i tehnologiju...

Dobra dosetka za veličinu blockchaina, ali ona je trenutno 160GB cela / 50 GB pruned, tako nešto. Sve dok nije preko 10TB (100x) veća može je pohraniti najveći hard disk namenjen „običnim ljudima”, a kad se dođe do tad verovatno će i cene tih diskova biti pristupačnije nego danas. Sa druge strane, agresivan pruning je takođe opcija. A da ne govorimo o sidechainovima koji takođe postoje za XMR.

Da, to za dolar je i moja poenta, nekako će biti upotrebljiv uvek, dok je kripto neupotrebljiv bez neta, a i nema mnogo šta da se kupi kriptom u poređenju sa fiatom. I

@BTCSRB: Ima bezbroj načina da se nabavi non-KYC Bitkoin: coinjoin, coinmixing, rudarenje u non-KYC pulu, nabavka nekog drugog kripta putem KYC menjačnice pa "trustless atomic swap" za BTC, nabavka KYC BTC-a putem Lightning-a pa "submarine swap" on-chain, zatim nabavka bilo kog KYC kripta ili Lightning ili on-chain BTC-a pa swap na sidechain Liquid BTC gde su transakcije tajne slično XMR-u i nazad swap na on-chain. Naravno i stara narodska razmena na ulici. XMR se isto može koristiti za svrhu nabavke non-KYC Bitkoina. U svim ovim slučajevima se adrese koje su krajnje destinacije tih sredstava ne mogu ili jako teško povezati sa KYC identitetom korisnika. Više na: kycnot.me

Diskusija o tome da li je zdrava i potrebna inflacija i da li je uopšte potreban državni intervencionizam u ekonomiji je stara diskusija između Kejnzijanske i Austrijske ekonomske škole. Po meni svaka inflacija je pljačka. Da ne govorimo da centralni bankari ne snose nikakvu odgovornost za gubitak kontrole nad inflacijom koji se meri u stotinama procenata "omaška" jer kada je ciljana inflacija 2%, a imamo inflaciju od 10% to je onda promašaj od 500%. A svi vodeći centralni bankari su i dalje na svojim funkcijama od početka inflacije negde 2020. godine iako su izneverili sva očekivanja. Nisu izabrani od strane naroda i nemoguće ih je smeniti od strane naroda, a utiču na živote svih!

Usled tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti, prirodno stanje slobodnog tržišta je pad cena, a ne njihov konstantan rast kroz inflaciju. Ne postoji nikakva "poželjna" ili "neophodna" inflacija, svaka "ciljana" inflacija je pljačka koji onemogućava populaciju da uživa u plodovima sopstvene produktivnosti u obliku nižih cena svih roba i usluga. Bitkoin zbog svoje fiksne ponude novca u opticaju (21 milion novčića = apsolutna digitalna oskudnost) nameće ovu disciplinu slobodnog tržišta i tehnološkog napretka. Dok je postojeći dužnički fiat sistem dizajniran da krade plodove produktivnosti, Bitkoin omogućava populaciji da ih zadrži u obliku nižih cena.

Kada nema rasta cena, inflacija je 0% i cene su stabilne. Krađa i tada postoji, jer cene prirodno padaju zbog povećanja efikasnosti proizvodnje/usluga, gde bi se tada veca količina robe/usluga, takmičila za istu (fiksnu) količinu novča od 21M BTC-a.

Kakav je ishod ove diskusije nije bitno, bitno je da sada svako ima slobodu izbora kakav novac želi da koristi a ne da bude prisiljen da koristi isključivo inflatorni novac. Ako se neko ne slaže sa modernom monetarnom teorijom, sada ima alternativu koju nekada nije imao (zlato je odavno izgubilo bitku sa MMT) pre postojanja Bitkoina.

kutija_keksa: Neki od ovih non kyc nacina su mi vec bili poznati, neki nisu, ovo je bas informativan komentar.

A što je inflacija pljačka? Bez obzira na inflaciju, broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti, to što se one sada mogu zameniti za manje robe je druga priča. Da li je onda i zlato pljačka, jer neko kupi, na primer, 100g zlata danas, a sutra na tržištu cena zlata padne? Da li je onda pljačka i BTC, jer i danas i kad je BTC bio na vrhuncu cene imam isti broj satoshija, samo je danas njihova vrednost manja?

Ne vidim zašto bi centralni bankari snosili odgovornost zbog inflacije. Oni ugrobo imaju dve poluge za kontrolu inflacije: kamatne stope i štampanje novca. U realnosti na inflaciju utiče mnogo faktora na koje centralna banka nema uticaj, niti koje može da predvidi: pandemije, ratovi, državni budžeti i zaduživanja, trgovina u datoj valuti (i izvoz i uvoz), porast i pad produktivnosti... Oni imaju donekle uticaj, ali nisu svemoćni.

Što se tiče izbora, ovo već zalazi u politiku a ne u finansije, ali ni direktor pošte, ni direktor EPS, ni direktor vodovoda nisu birani na izborima na kojima glasaju svi, a utiču na živote svih!

Ne verujem u kripto kao spasioce kapitalizma ili pojedinca. Ovo je sada više politički, ali zaista mislim da u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, a da je kripto u najbolju ruku jedna mala stavka koja omogućava skladištenje stečenog kapitala (ovo se dobija ako prihvatimo sve kripto pozitivne teze), ali ne rešava problem radnika koji čine 95% društva i doprinose 99% vrednosti a kapitala kontrolišu višestruko manje.

Otkud znam, ono, da rezimiram: kripto je koristan alat koji još nije dostigao svoj vrhunac, ali neće nešto mnogo promeniti svet. To je neko moje viđenje.

@BTCSRB: Kako nije pljačka? Broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti ali ukupan broj novca u opticaju se uvećava i tako obezvređuje tvoje novčanice. Inače, znaš vrlo dobro da fizički keš čini manje od 10% ukupnog novca u opticaju, a ostalo je digitalno. Dakle "money supply" se uvećava pritiskom na dugme tastature računara u FED/ECB/NBS... Neko stvara novac ni iz čega za koji svi moramo da radimo trošeći svoje dragoceno i ograničeno vreme na ovom svetu. Tako nam efektivno krade vreme pošto tvoj radni sat iz prošlosti konstantno može da kupi manje roba i usluga u budućnosti, a zbog tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti bi realno cene trebaju da budu niže vremenom

Kako možeš da porediš fiat, zlato i BTC u tom smislu? Vrednost fiata prevashodno smanjuje ljudska manipulacija sa strane ponude koja se uvek uvećava, dok je potražnja permanentno rastuća zbog zakona o "legal tenderu" i rasta privrede i broja stanovnika. Ovo sa BTC je strana potražnje koju reguliše slobodno tržište dok ukupna ponuda nije podložna ljudskoj manipulaciji. Dugoročno, vrednost zlata i BTC raste sa rastućom potražnjom jer nema manipulacije ponude.

Centralni bankari će optužiti sve druge faktore da bi skrenuli pažnju sa svoje odgovornosti za inflaciju, a za ratove se može reći da su čak i saučesnici pošto tokovi novca mogu utvrditi veoma zanimljivu vezu između njih i vojno-industrijskog kompleksa. Na stranu to, dolarska monetarna masa je samo između februara i aprila 2020. uvećana za 1.39 biliona/triliona što je više nego ukupna monetarna masa iz 2008-09 krize. U krizi 2008-09 su od septembra 2008. do januara 2009. naštampali 803 milijarde i tako uvećali monetarnu masu za 88% sa 909 milijardi na 1712 milijardi - to znači da su 4 meseca naštampali skoro isto novca kao tokom celih 95 prethodnig godina sopstvenog postojanja Federalnih rezervi. Te 2020. su i potpuno ukinuli obavezne rezerve u komercijalnim bankama.

ECB je naštampala 1T evra "zbog kovida". A kao naštampali su jer je bila zatvorena celokupna privreda, pa što ste tako agresivno zatvarali privredu - trebalo je da pustite ljude da rade a ne da se igrate Mao Ce Tunga. I uprkos nezapamćenom štampanju ti isti centralni bankari su nazivali inflaciju "prolaznom" - dakle ni zrnce odgovornosti.

Ako u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, šta reći za komunizam gde ne da nema slobode nego nema ni života pošto su komunistički režimi pobili na desetine miliona ljudi?

Na hipotetičkom BTC standardu zbog fiksne količine novca u opticaju bi se popravio položaj radnika jer kapitalisti ne mogu da beskonačno uvećavaju svoj BTC kapital i kupovna moć i radnika i kapitalista bi procentualno podjednako rasla i običan radnik bi imao mnogo bolje šanse da i sam postane kapitalista nego danas. Imao bi mogućnost da štedi od svoje plate jer mu novac ne bi gubio vrednost i u nekom trenutku bi iz svoje štednje finansirao neki biznis, a ne zaduživanjem. Tako bi se ravnomernije rasporedilo društveno bogatstvo ali ne centralnim planiranjem nego kroz slobodno tržište.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 58937958:545e6994

2025-05-22 11:50:08

ビットコインピザデーということで ビットコインピザを作りました せっかくなので日本っぽい明太ピザにして ビットコインロゴは鮭のテリーヌにしました

鮭のテリーヌ

はんぺんでBのマークを気合で切ります 色付きクリアファイルをBマークに切って乗せると楽です 鮭とはんぺんと牛乳と卵と塩をフードプロセッサーにかけます 容器に流して蒸し焼きします

生地作り

強力粉・ドライイースト・塩・オリーブオイル・水を混ぜます 気合でこねます 1時間くらい発酵させるとふっくらします

トッピングの明太マヨ

明太子とマヨネーズとしょうゆを混ぜます

のばした生地に 明太マヨ・チーズ・コーンを乗せて焼きます 途中で薄いおもちを乗せます 焼けたらのりとテリーヌを乗せてできあがり

反省点いろいろ

今回一番くやしいのは明太マヨに色がつきすぎたこと 明太ピザってピンク色の感じが独特な気がするし もしかしたら日本だけかもと思ったから作ったのに 焼けたらトマトソースみたいな色になっちゃった なんてことだ 生地に焼き色がつかないな～白いな～もうちょっと焼くか～とか思ってたら 明太さんが焦げてました むねん

ちなみに製作動画の中でテリーヌを２つに分けているのは 鮭とはんぺんの部分が同じ色っぽくなってBが目立たなかったらどうしようと思って 片方はケチャップを足して 赤色濃くなるかな～大失敗したらいやだな～とか思ってたんですけど ケチャップ入れても何も変わらなかった むねん

薄いおもち（しゃぶしゃぶもちというらしい）を買ってしまったんだけど これはピザのトッピングにするには焦げそうだから 普通の厚みのもちの方がよさそう 今回は途中で一度オーブン開けておもちを乗せたけど オーブンの温度が下がるのが微妙かも

あと今回は練習無しのぶっつけ本番で作ったので ちょっと自分の中で反省点が多かったな～と やっぱり一度試作した方がいいですね いや鮭とか明太子とか高くて（言い訳

あ～あとチーズ 溶け溶けチーズがのびーるインスタ映え的なやつをやりたかったんですけど 全然むりでした のびないのびない ああいうのは別で工夫が必要そうなので要検討

味はおいしかったです 明太マヨって自分ではあんまり食べないしピザはマルゲリータ派なんですけど結構いいですね ちょっと味が濃くてご飯食べたくなっちゃった 次作る時はしょうゆ入れないようにしよう

nostr:nevent1qqsrhularycewltxz88e9wrwutkqu5pkylh3vxrmys2e0nuh7c2h06qgqp9zc

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

2025-05-24 18:12:47

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit\ enean magna lorem, dignissim et nisl a, iaculis eleifend dolor

uspendisse potenti

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

2025-05-24 18:01:14

Humanity's Natural State Is Chaos
Without order there is chaos. Humans competing with each other for scarce resources naturally leads to conflict until one group achieves significant power and instates a "monopoly on violence."

Power Brings Stability
Power has always been the key means to achieve stability in societies. Centralized power can be incredibly effective in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, and social unrest efficiently. Unfortunately this power is often abused and corrupted.

Centralized Power Breeds Tyranny
Centralized power often leads to tyrannical rule. When a select few individuals hold control over a society, they tend to become corrupted. Centralized power structures often lack accountability and transparency, and rely too heavily on trust.

Distributed Power Cultivates Freedom
New technology that empowers individuals provide us the ability to rebuild societies from the bottom up. Strong individuals that can defend and provide for themselves will help build strong local communities on a similar foundation. The result is power being distributed throughout society rather than held by a select few.

In the short term, relying on trust and centralized power is an easy answer to mitigating chaos, but freedom tech tools provide us the ability to build on top of much stronger distributed foundations that provide stability while also cultivating individual freedom.

The solution starts with us. Empower yourself. Empower others. A grassroots freedom tech movement scaling one person at a time.

---

If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

2025-05-24 18:01:02

Key Takeaways

Lyn Alden unpacks the complex interplay of global trade imbalances, the dollar’s entrenched reserve currency status, and America’s eroded industrial base, arguing that aggressive tariffs under Trump have backfired by hurting U.S. businesses without reversing decades of offshoring. She illustrates how China has rapidly ascended the value chain, dominating key industries and making it nearly impossible for the U.S. to build a trade coalition against them. Despite the U.S.’s massive debt and persistent global demand for dollars, cracks are forming in the system as nations explore alternative payment systems and neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin. Lyn emphasizes that Bitcoin’s most effective path to integration is through grassroots and corporate adoption, not government-led initiatives, and warns that unless the U.S. urgently scales its energy and industrial capacity, it risks falling further behind China’s unmatched pace of growth and infrastructure dominance.

Best Quotes

• "The trade deficit is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services, which sounds like a really good deal."
• "It's better to correct these imbalances from a position of strength, not weakness."
• "All that debt creates inflexible demand for dollars. There’s literally way more demand than dollars in the system."
• "China became the largest auto exporter in the world in just four years."
• "Bitcoin isn’t changing to fit into the global financial system. The global financial system is changing to fit Bitcoin."
• "Individuals, small businesses, corporations—these are the real drivers of Bitcoin adoption. Not governments."

Conclusion

This episode offers a sobering look at America’s trade and currency dilemmas, with Lyn Alden explaining why quick policy fixes like tariffs can’t reverse decades of deindustrialization tied to the dollar’s reserve status. She highlights the rise of neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin as important hedges, stressing that grassroots and corporate adoption will be more effective than government-led efforts. Lyn also warns that without a major push to expand energy production, the U.S. risks falling behind in an AI-driven, hardware-centric world, urging strategic humility and innovation to navigate the shifting global order.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:31 - Triffin's dilemma
8:10 - Debt leverage
11:04 - Fold & Bitkey
12:41 - Trump's goals and tariff policy
19:54 - Unchained
20:24 - China is not weak
30:07 - Energy
37:15 - AI/robots
41:11 - SBR
48:47 - Bitcoin credit products
52:40 - Eventful week for bitcoin

Transcript

(00:00) They ramped up tariffs super high, super quickly. In many cases, were so high that they hurt us as much as some of our trade adversaries. China has ramped up to like unfathomable degrees. Nuclear, solar, pretty much everything that they can throw money at they're building. The trade is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services, which sounds like a really good deal.
(00:19) They take those slips of paper and then they buy our stocks. They buy our corporate bonds and government bonds. And so they end up owning a larger and larger share of corporate America. got the headphone hair. I'm all out of whack, Lynn. It's been a long week here in Austin. Yeah, I can imagine. It's been a long time since we've talked on the show. It's been two years.
(00:41) I was checking, which is a astonishing to me. But no better time than now. Uh I think quite literally based off of all the conversations we've had uh over the years. I mean, your famous saying, nothing stops this train. I think we're coming to a juncture where that's becoming abundantly clear. and you wrote uh a newsletter earlier this week, I believe you sent it out Sunday, that basically highlighted the crux of the problem, which is the dollar reserve status and the almost impossible task that Trump would like to accomplish, but
(01:21) likely isn't the case, which is sort of solving Triffin's dilemma of reshoring manufacturing while keeping US dollar dominance. So I think diving into this from first principles would be great. Sure. Yeah. And that's that's the um I can imagine the administration's challenge of trying to communicate this because uh the intricacies of how trade deficits and the reserve currency kind of pair together is very wonkish.
(01:46) It it kind of has this like academic quality to it that doesn't go over well uh in kind of political oriented speeches. Um like I would I would be terrible at a political rally for example when I try to explain any of this. Um and so we kind of have this situation where um and this was outlined back during the Breton Wood system by Triffin as you mentioned uh which is that having the reserve currency does come with a bunch of benefits um you know historically called a extraordin uh exorbitant privilege um but then it has certain costs to
(02:15) maintain it and those costs can vary a bit depending on how the system structure. So for example back in the Bretton Woods era the cost was that we kept draining our gold reserves. uh we basically had to kind of keep paying out our go gold gold reserves to maintain that part of the system and in the current formation uh instead we kind of pay for it with our industrial base.
(02:36) We keep kind of sending out little parts of our industrial base over time to maintain the the global reserve currency status. And there's a few reasons for that. One is that um because unlike every other fiat currency, the dollar has all these extra demands for it by countries all around the world. um all these different purposes.
(02:55) um there's this extra demand for dollars which sounds good on the surface and as for Americans for example we have tons of import power when we go on vacations to the rest of the world it's you know we have pretty strong purchasing power compared to when they come to the US um these things seem good on the surface but it also means that it's pretty expensive to manufacture lower margin things here at home uh and so we have this kind of situation where our imports are very strong our exports uh especially lower margin stuff is less uh
(03:22) competitive whereas we can still be competitive competitive on really high margin stuff, you know, technology, finance, healthcare, that kind of thing. Um, and then the other aspect is that even if you could somehow solve that, there's the more fundamental problem, which is that the whole world needs dollars uh for the you know, global reserve currency status to use it for international contract pricing, crossber financing, one side of every trade pair that they do, all these different purposes as a reserve asset. Um uh and
(03:51) when you step back and say, "Well, how do they get all those dollars if they're all using dollars? How did all those dollars get out there?" And the answer is trade deficits. Um basically that overvalued aspect forces open the US trade deficit. And every year we send out hundreds of billions or sometimes a trillion dollars in net outflows.
(04:10) And over years and decades, these have accumulated out there. And so, uh, kind of the way it works is that if you want to fix the trade deficit, which I've been I've been writing about since 2019, I think that's a I think that's a valid mandate to do. Um, unfortunately does come with trade-offs.
(04:26) Uh, some of the some of the benefits that that you know that we enjoy at the cost of the trade deficit. Um, if you do want to kind of fix that imbalance, it comes up, you know, with with basically giving away at least some of those benefits and prioritizing that that industrial base a bit more. And one of the dynamics that you highlighted in your newsletter, which makes sense, but wasn't very clear to me before, is that via these deficits, we flood international markets with dollars because we're sending parts of our industrial base over there. But then
(05:00) it's like cyclical. They take those dollars and then reinvest them in US financial assets. So it has this sort of flow where it goes out but then it comes back in into the financialized economy via equities and real estate and other such assets and that is good for asset owners here in the United States.
(05:19) But again I think that's is part of the bag of mandate is that sort of cycle has led to this large wealth gap in the United States that they're trying to fix. Yeah. Exactly. Um and so basically the opposite side of a current account deficit which is basically so the trade deficit plus things like interest and dividends.
(05:39) Um so we run a structural current account deficit and the opposite side of that is a capital account surplus. Um which is that funds flow in the rest of the world and buy our financial assets. Uh and so it's the the trade deficit is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services which sounds like a really good deal.
(05:57) Um but then the extra step of that that you mentioned is that they take those slips of paper or really those electronic digits that they have and then they buy our stocks, they buy our real estate, they buy our private equity, they they buy our corporate bonds and government bonds and so they end up owning a larger and larger share of corporate America as part of their kind of accumulated uh trade surpluses uh and reserve assets and uh international private assets.
(06:22) Um, and the kind of the consequence of this, if you kind of like view the foreign sector as an intermediary, we're basically constantly kind of taking economic vibrancy out of, you know, Michigan and Ohio and, uh, you know, rural Pennsylvania where the steel m

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

2025-05-24 18:01:01

Marty's Bent

via me

It seems like every other day there's another company announced that is going public with the intent of competing with Strategy by leveraging capital markets to create financial instruments to acquire Bitcoin in a way that is accretive for shareholders. This is certainly a very interesting trend, very bullish for bitcoin in the short-term, and undoubtedly making it so bitcoin is top of mind in the mainstream. I won't pretend to know whether or not these strategies will ultimately be successful or fail in the short, medium or long term. However, one thing I do know is that the themes that interest me, both here at TFTC and in my role as Managing Partner at Ten31, are companies that are building good businesses that are efficient, have product-market-fit, generate revenues and profits and roll those profits into bitcoin.

While it seems pretty clear that Strategy has tapped into an arbitrage that exists in capital markets, it's not really that exciting. From a business perspective, it's actually pretty straightforward and simple; find where potential arbitrage opportunities exists between pools of capital looking for exposure to spot bitcoin or bitcoin's volatility but can't buy the actual asset, and provide them with products that give them access to exposure while simultaneously creating a cult-like retail following. Rinse and repeat. To the extent that this strategy is repeatable is yet to be seen. I imagine it can expand pretty rapidly. Particularly if we have a speculative fervor around companies that do this. But in the long run, I think the signal is falling back to first principles, looking for businesses that are actually providing goods and services to the broader economy - not focused on the hyper-financialized part of the economy - to provide value and create efficiencies that enable higher margins and profitability.

With this in mind, I think it's important to highlight the combined leverage that entrepreneurs have by utilizing bitcoin treasuries and AI tools that are emerging and becoming more advanced by the week. As I said in the tweet above, there's never been a better time to start a business that finds product-market fit and cash flows quickly with a team of two to three people. If you've been reading this rag over the last few weeks, you know that I've been experimenting with these AI tools and using them to make our business processes more efficient here at TFTC. I've also been using them at Ten31 to do deep research and analysis.

It has become abundantly clear to me that any founder or entrepreneur that is not utilizing the AI tools that are emerging is going to get left behind. As it stands today, all anyone has to do to get an idea from a thought in your head to the prototype stage to a minimum viable product is to hop into something like Claude or ChatGPT, have a brief conversation with an AI model that can do deep research about a particular niche that you want to provide a good service to and begin building.

Later this week, I will launch an app called Opportunity Cost in the Chrome and Firefox stores. It took me a few hours of work over the span of a week to ideate and iterate on the concept to the point where I had a working prototype that I handed off to a developer who is solving the last mile problem I have as an "idea guy" of getting the product to market. Only six months ago, accomplishing something like this would have been impossible for me. I've never written a line of code that's actually worked outside of the modded MySpace page I made back in middle school. I've always had a lot of ideas but have never been able to effectively communicate them to developers who can actually build them. With a combination of ChatGPT-03 and Replit, I was able to build an actual product that works. I'm using it in my browser today. It's pretty insane.

There are thousands of people coming to the same realization at the same time right now and going out there and building niche products very cheaply, with small teams, they are getting to market very quickly, and are amassing five figures, six figures, sometimes seven figures of MRR with extremely high profit margins. What most of these entrepreneurs have not really caught on to yet is that they should be cycling a portion - in my opinion, a large portion - of those profits into bitcoin. The combination of building a company utilizing these AI tools, getting it to market, getting revenue and profits, and turning those profits into bitcoin cannot be understated. You're going to begin seeing teams of one to ten people building businesses worth billions of dollars and they're going to need to store the value they create, any money that cannot be debased.

Grant Gilliam, one of the co-founders of Ten31, wrote about this in early 2024, bitcoin being the fourth lever of equity value growth for companies.

[

Bitcoin Treasury - The Fourth Lever to Equity Value Growth

Most companies do not hold enough bitcoin There is a saying you often hear in bitcoin circles that “you can never have enough bitcoin.” This is typically expressed by those who have spent the time to both understand bitcoin’s unique and superior monetary properties and also to appreciate why tho

Ten31 - Investors in bitcoin infrastructure and freedom techGrant Gilliam

](https://ten31.vc/insights/treasury?ref=tftc.io)

We already see this theme playing out at Ten31 with some of our portfolio companies, most notably Strike, which recently released some of their financials, highlighting the fact that they're extremely profitable with high margins and a relatively small team (~75). This is extremely impressive, especially when you consider the fact that they're a global company competing with the likes of Coinbase and Block, which have each thousands of employees.

Even those who are paying attention to the developments in the AI space and how the tools can enable entrepreneurs to build faster aren't really grasping the gravity of what's at play here. Many are simply thinking of consumer apps that can be built and distributed quickly to market, but the ways in which AI can be implemented extend far beyond the digital world. Here's a great example of a company a fellow freak is building with the mindset of keeping the team small, utilizing AI tools to automate processes and quickly push profits into bitcoin.

via Cormac

Again, this is where the exciting things are happening in my mind. People leveraging new tools to solve real problems to drive real value that ultimately produce profits for entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurs who decide to save those profits in bitcoin will find that the equity value growth of their companies accelerates exponentially as they provide more value, gain more traction, and increase their profits while also riding the bitcoin as it continues on its monetization phase. The compounded leverage of building a company that leverages AI tools and sweeps profits into bitcoin is going to be the biggest asymmetric play of the next decade. Personally, I also see it as something that's much more fulfilling than the pure play bitcoin treasury companies that are coming to market because consumers and entrepreneurs are able to recive and provide a ton of value in the real economy.

If you're looking to stay on top of the developments in the AI space and how you can apply the tools to help build your business or create a new business, I highly recommend you follow somebody like Greg Isenberg, whose Startup Ideas Podcast has been incredibly valuable for me as I attempt to get a lay of the land of how to implement AI into my businesses.

America's Two Economies

In my recent podcast with Lyn Alden, she outlined how our trade deficits create a cycle that's reshaping America's economic geography. As Alden explained, US trade deficits pump dollars into international markets, but these dollars don't disappear - they return as investments in US financial assets. This cycle gradually depletes industrial heartlands while enriching financial centers on the coasts, creating what amounts to two separate American economies.

"We're basically constantly taking economic vibrancy out of Michigan and Ohio and rural Pennsylvania where the steel mills were... and stuffing it back into financial assets in New York and Silicon Valley." - Lyn Alden

This pattern has persisted for over four decades, accelerating significantly since the early 1980s. Alden emphasized that while economists may argue there's still room before reaching a crisis point, the political consequences are already here. The growing divide between these two Americas has fueled populist sentiment as voters who feel left behind seek economic rebalancing, even if they can't articulate the exact mechanisms causing their hardship.

Check out the full podcast here for more on China's man

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

2025-05-24 17:11:28

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?
2. Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?
3. Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

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Bitcoin je peer to peer elektronski keš, novi oblik digitalnog novca koji se može prenositi između ljudi ili računara, bez potrebe za učestvovanjem pouzdanog posrednika (kao što je banka) i čije izdavanje nije pod kontrolom nijedne stranke.

Zamislite papirni dolar ili metalni novčić. Kad taj novac date drugoj osobi, ona ne mora da zna ko ste vi.

On samo treba da veruju da novac koji dobiju od vas nije falsifikat. Obično, proveravanje falsifikata „fizičkog“ novca, ljudi rade koristeći samo oči i prste ili koristeći specijalnu opremu za testiranje ukoliko se radi o značajnijoj sumi novca.

Većina plaćanja u našem digitalnom društvu vrši se putem Interneta korišćenjem neke posredničke usluge: kompanije za izdavanje kreditnih kartica poput Visa, snabdevača digitalnih plaćanja kao što je PayPal ili Apple Pay ili mrežne platforme poput WeChat u Kini.

Kretanje ka digitalnom plaćanju sa sobom donosi oslanjanje na nekog centralnog aktera koji mora odobriti i verifikovati svaku uplatu.

Priroda novca se promenila od fizičkog predmeta koji možete da nosite, prenesete i autentifikujete do digitalnih bitova koje mora da čuva i verifikuje treća strana koja kontroliše njihov prenos.

Odricanjem od gotovine u korist „udobnih“ digitalnih plaćanja, mi takođe stvaramo sistem u kome dajemo ogromna ovlašćenja onima koji bi poželeli da nas tlače.

Platforme za digitalno plaćanje postale su osnova distopijskih autoritarnih metoda kontrole, poput onih koje kineska vlada koristi za nadgledanje disidenata i sprečava građane, čije ponašanje im se ne svidja, da kupuju robu i plaćaju usluge.

Bitcoin nudi alternativu centralno kontrolisanom digitalnom novcu sa sistemom koji nam vraća prirodu korišćenja keša – čovek čoveku, ali u digitalnom obliku.

Bitcoin je digitalno sredstvo koje se izdaje i prenosi preko mreže međusobno povezanih računara, od koji svaki od njih samostalno potvrđuje da svi ostali igraju po pravilima.

Bitcoin Mreža

Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je izumela osoba ili grupa poznata pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto, oko 2008. godine.

Niko ne zna Satoshijev identitet, a koliko znamo, oni su nestali i o njima se godinama ništa nije čulo.

11.februara 2009. godine, Satoshi je pisao o ranoj verziji Bitcoin-a na mrežnom forumu za cypher­punkere, ljude koji rade na tehnologiji kriptografije i koji su zabrinuti za privatnost i slobodu pojedinca.

Iako ovo nije prvo zvanično objavljivanje Bitcoin-a, sadrži dobar rezime Satoshi-jevih motiva.

Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda pod nazivom Bitcoin. Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki, jer se sve zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju. […]

Osnovni problem konvencionalne valute je potpuno poverenje koje je potrebno za njeno funkcionisanje. Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja. Bankama se mora verovati da drže naš novac i prenose ga elektronskim putem, ali one ga daju u talasima kreditnih balona sa delićem rezerve. Moramo im verovati sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune. Njihovi ogromni režijski troškovi onemogućavaju mikro plaćanja.

Generaciju ranije, višekorisnički time-sharing računarski sistemi imali su sličan problem. Pre pojave jake enkripcije, korisnici su morali da imaju pouzdanje u zaštitu lozinkom kako bi zaštitili svoje fajlove […]

Tada je jaka enkripcija postala dostupna širokim masama i više nije bilo potrebno poverenje. Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac. Uz e-valutu zasnovanu na kriptografskom dokazu, bez potrebe da verujete posredniku treće strane, novac može biti siguran i transakcije mogu biti izvršene bez napora. […]

Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje. Ukratko, mreža radi poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić. Potrebna je prednost prirode informacije koju je lako širiti, ali je teško ugušiti. Za detalje o tome kako to funkcioniše, pogledajte članak o dizajnu na bitcoin.org

Satoshi Nakamoto

Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?

Razdvojimo neke od Satoshi-jevih postova kako bismo uvideli razloge njegove motivacije.

„Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda.“

P2P je skraćenica za peer to peer i ukazuje na sistem u kojem jedna osoba može da komunicira sa drugom bez ikoga u sredini, kao medjusobno jednaki.

Možete se setiti P2P tehnologija za razmenu datoteka poput Napster-a, Kazaa-e i BitTorrrent-a, koje su prve omogućile ljudima da dele muziku i filmove bez posrednika.

Satoshi je dizajnirao Bitcoin kako bi omogućio ljudima da razmenjuju e-keš, elektronski keš, bez prolaska preko posrednika na približno isti način.

Softver je otvorenog koda, što znači da svako može videti kako funkcioniše i doprineti tome.

Ne treba da verujemo ni u šta što je Satoshi napisao u svom postu o tome kako softver radi.

Možemo pogledati kod i sami proveriti kako to funkcioniše. Štaviše, možemo promeniti funkcionalnost sistema promenom koda.

„Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki …“

Satoshi napominje da je sistem decentralizovan kako bi se razlikovao od sistema koji imaju centralnu kontrolu.

Prethodne pokušaje stvaranja digitalne gotovine poput DigiCash-a od strane Davida Chaum-a podržavao je centralni server, računar ili skup računara koji je bio odgovoran za izdavanje i verifikaciju plaćanja pod kontrolom jedne korporacije.

Takve, centralno kontrolisane privatne šeme novca, bile su osuđene na propast; ljudi se ne mogu osloniti na novac koji može nestati kada kompanija prestane sa poslovanjem, bude hakovana, pretrpi pad servera ili je zatvori vlada.

Bitcoin održava mreža pojedinaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Da bi se Bitcoin isključio, bilo bi potrebno isključiti desetine do stotine hiljada računara širom sveta u isto vreme, zauvek, od kojih su mnogi na nepoznatim lokacijama.

Bila bi to beznadežna igra, jer bi svaki napad ove prirode jednostavno podstakao stvaranje novih Bitcoin čvorova ili računara na mreži.

„… sve se zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju“

Internet, a u stvari i većina savremenih računarskih sistema, izgrađeni su na kriptografiji, metodi prikrivanja informacija, tako da je može dekodirati samo primalac informacije.

Kako se Bitcoin oslobađa potrebe za poverenjem? Umesto da verujemo nekome ko kaže „Ja sam Alisa“ ili „Imam 10 $ na računu“, možemo koristiti kriptografsku matematiku da bismo izneli iste činjenice na način koji je vrlo lako verifikovati od strane primaoca dokaza ali ga je nemoguće falsifikovati.

Bitcoin u svom dizajnu koristi kriptografsku matematiku kako bi učesnicima omogućio da provere ponašanje svih ostalih učesnika, bez poverenja u bilo koju centralnu stranku.

„Moramo im verovati [bankama] sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune“

Za razliku od korišćenja vašeg bankovnog računa, sistema digitalnog plaćanja ili kreditne kartice, Bitcoin omogućava dvema stranama da obavljaju transakcije bez davanje bilo kakvih ličnih podataka.

Centralizovana skladišta potrošačkih podataka koji se čuvaju u bankama, kompanijama sa kreditnim karticama, procesorima plaćanja i vladama, predstavljaju pravu poslasticu za hakere.

Kao dokaz Satoshi-jeve poente služi primer iz 2017. godine kada je Equifax masovono kompromitovan, kada su hakeri ukrali identifikacione i finansijske podatke za više od 140 miliona ljudi.

Bitcoin odvaja finansijske transakcije od stvarnih identiteta.

Na kraju krajeva, kada nekome damo fizički novac, on nema potrebu da zna ko smo, niti treba da brinemo da će nakon naše razmene moći da iskoristi neke informacije koje smo mu dali da ukrade još našeg novca.

Zašto ne bismo očekivali isto, ili čak i bolje, od digitalnog novca?

„Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja.“

Pojam tradicionalna valuta, odnosi se na valutu izdatu od strane vlade i centralne banke, koju vlada proglašava zakonskim sredstvom plaćanja.

Istorijski, novac je nastao od stvari koje je bilo teško proizvesti, koje su bile lake za proveravanje i transport, poput školjki, staklenih perli, srebra i zlata.

Kad god bi se nešto koristilo kao novac, postojalo je iskušenje da se stvori više toga.

Ako bi neko pronašao vrhunsku tehnologiju za brzo stvaranje velike količine nečega, ta stvar bi izgubila vrednost.

Evropski naseljenici uspeli su da liše afrički kontinent bogatstva trgujući staklenim perlicama koje su se lako proizvodile za ljudske robove.

Isto se dogodilo sa američkim indijancima, kada su kolonisti otkrili način brze proizvodnje vampum školjki, koje su starosedeoci smatrali retkim.

Vremenom, širom sveta ljudi su shvatili da je samo zlato dovoljno retko da deluje kao novac, bez straha da bi neko drugi mogao da ga stvori u velikim količinama.

Polako smo prešli sa svetske ekonomije koja je koristila zlato kao novac na onu gde su banke izdavale papirne sertifikate kao dokaz posedovanja tog zlata.

Nixon je okončao međunarodnu konvertibilnost američkog dolara u zlato 1971. godine, privremenim rešenjem, koje je ubrzo postalo trajno.

Kraj zlatnog standarda omogućio je vladama i centralnim bankama da imaju punu dozvolu da povećavaju novčanu masu po svojoj volji, razredjujući vrednost svake novčanice u opticaju, poznatije kao umanjenje vrednosti.

Iako je izdata od strane vlade, suštinska tradicionalna valuta je novac koji svi znamo i svakodnevno koristimo, ipak je relativno novo iskustvo u opsegu svetske istorije.

Moramo verovati našim vladama da ne zloupotrebljavaju njegovo štamparije, i ne treba nam puno muke da nadjemo primere kršenja tog poverenja.

U autokratskim i centralno planiranim režimima gde vlada ima prst direktno na mašini za novac, kao što je Venecuela, valuta je postala gotovo bezvredna.

Venecuelanski Bolivar prešao je sa 2 bolivara za 1 američki dolar, koliko je vredeo 2009. godine, na 250.000 bolivara za 1 američki dolar 2019. godine.

Pogledajte koliko novčanica je bilo potrebno za kupovinu piletine u Venecueli posle hiperinflacije.

Satoshi je želeo da ponudi alternativu tradicionalnoj valuti čija se ponuda uvek nepredvidivo širi.

Da bi sprečilo umanjenje vrednosti, Satoshi je dizajnirao novčani sistem gde je zaliha bila fiksna i izdavana po predvidljivoj i nepromenjivoj stopi.

Postojaće samo 21 milion Bitcoin-a.

Međutim, svaki Bitcoin se može podeliti na 100 miliona jedinica koje se sada nazivaju satoshis (sats-ovi), što će činiti ukupno 2,1 kvadriliona satoshi-a u opticaju oko 2140. godine.

Pre Bitcoin-a nije bilo moguće sprečiti beskrajnu reprodukciju digitalnih sredstava.

Kopirati digitalnu knjigu, audio datoteku ili video zapis i poslati ga prijatelju, je jeftino i lako.

Jedini izuzeci od toga su digitalna sredstva koja kontrolišu posrednici.

Na primer, kada iznajmite film sa iTunes-a, možete ga gledati na vašem uređaju samo zato što iTunes kontroliše distribuciju tog filma i može ga zaustaviti nakon perioda njegovog iznajmljivanja.

Slično tome, vaša banka kontroliše vaš digitalni novac. Zadatak banke je da vodi evidenciju koliko novca imate.

Ako ga prenesete nekom drugom, oni će odobriti ili odbiti takav prenos.

Bitcoin je prvi digitalni sistem koji sprovodi oskudicu bez posrednika i prvo je sredstvo poznato čovečanstvu čija je nepromenljiva ponuda i raspored izdavanja poznat unapred.

Ni plemeniti metali poput zlata nemaju ovo svojstvo, jer uvek možemo iskopati sve više i više zlata ukoliko je to isplativo.

Zamislite da otkrijemo asteroid koji sadrži deset puta više zlata nego što ga imamo na zemlji.

Šta bi se dogodilo sa cenom zlata uzimajući u obzir tako obilnu ponudu? Bitcoin je imun na takva otkrića i manipulisanje nabavkom.

Jednostavno je nemoguće proizvesti više od toga (21 miliona).

„Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve. […] Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac “

Naše trenutne metode obezbeđivanja novca, poput stavljanja u banku, oslanjaju se na poverenje nekome drugom da će obaviti taj posao.

Poverenje u takvog posrednika ne zahteva samo sigurnost da on neće učiniti nešto zlonamerno ili glupo, već i da vlada neće zapleniti ili zamrznuti vaša sredstva vršeći pritisak na ovog posrednika.

Međutim, videli smo bezbroj puta da vlade mogu, i zaista uskraćuju pristup novcu kada se osećaju ugroženo.

Nekom ko živi u Sjedinjenim Državama ili nekoj drugoj visoko regulisanoj ekonomiji možda zvuči glupo da razmišlja da se probudi sa oduzetim novcem, ali to se događa stalno.

PayPal mi je zamrzao sredstva jednostavno zato par meseci nisam koristio svoj račun.

Trebalo mi je više od nedelju dana da vratim pristup „svom“ novcu.

Srećan sam što živim u Europi, gde bih se bar mogao nadati da ću potražiti neko pravno rešenje ako mi PayPal zamrzne sredstva i gde imam osnovno poverenje da moja vlada i banka neće ukrasti moj novac.

Mnogo gore stvari su se dogodile, i trenutno se dešavaju, u zemljama sa manje slobode.

Banke su se zatvorile tokom kolapsa valuta u Grčkoj.

Banke na Kipru su koristile kaucije da konfiskuju sredstva od svojih klijenata.

Indijska vlada je proglasila određene novčanice bezvrednim.

Bivši SSSR, u kojem sam odrastao, imao je ekonomiju pod kontrolom vlade što je dovelo do ogromnih nestašica robe.

Bilo je nezakonito posedovati strane valute kao što je američki dolar.

Kada smo poželeli da odemo, mojoj porodici je bilo dozvoljeno da zameni samo ograničenu količinu novca po osobi za američke dolare po zvaničnom kursu koji je bio u velikoj meri različit od pravog kursa slobodnog tržišta.

U stvari, vlada nam je oduzela ono malo bogatstva koje smo imali koristeći gvozdeni stisak na ekonomiji i kretanju kapitala.

Autokratske zemlje imaju tendenciju da sprovode strogu ekonomsku kontrolu, sprečavajući ljude da na slobodnom tržištu povuku svoj novac iz banaka, iznesu ga iz zemlje ili da ga razmene u ne još uvek bezvredne valute poput američkog dolara.

To omogućava vladinoj slobodnoj vladavini da primeni sulude ekonomske eksperimente poput socijalističkog sistema SSSR-a.

Bitcoin se ne oslanja na poverenje u treću stranu da bi osigurao vaš novac.

Umesto toga, Bitcoin onemogućava drugima pristup vašim novčićima bez jedinstvenog ključa koji imate samo vi, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Držeći Bitcoin, držite ključeve sopstvene finansijske slobode. Bitcoin razdvaja novac i državu

„Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje […] poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić“

Mreža se odnosi na ideju da je gomila računara povezana i da mogu međusobno slati poruke.

Reč distribuirano znači da ne postoji centralna stranka koja kontroliše, već da svi učesnici koordiniraju medjusobno kako bi mreža bila uspešna.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole, bitno je znati da niko ne vara. Ideja dvostruke potrošnje odnosi se na mogućnost trošenja istog novca dva puta.

Fizički novac odlazi iz vaše ruke kad ga potrošite. Međutim, digitalne transakcije se mogu kopirati baš kao muzika ili filmovi.

Kada novac šaljete preko banke, oni se pobrinu da isti novac ne možete da prebacujete dva puta.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole potreban nam je način da sprečimo ovu vrstu dvostruke potrošnje, koja je u suštini ista kao i falsifikovanje novca.

Satoshi opisuje da učesnici u Bitcoin mreži rade zajedno kako bi vremenski označili (doveli u red) transakcije kako bismo znali šta je bilo prvo.

Zbog toga možemo odbiti sve buduće pokušaje trošenja istog novca.

Satoshi se uhvatio u koštac sa nekoliko zanimljivih tehničkih problema kako bi rešio probleme privatnosti, uništavanja vrednosti i centralne kontrole u ​​trenutnim monetarnim sistemima.

Na kraju je stvorio peer to peer mrežu kojoj se svako mogao pridružiti bez otkrivanja svog identiteta ili potrebe da veruje bilo kom drugom učesniku.

Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

Doprinosi izvornom kodu Bitcoina

Kada je Bitcoin pokrenut, samo nekolicina ljudi ga je koristila i pokrenula Bitcoin softver na svojim računarima za napajanje Bitcoin mreže.

Većina ljudi u to vreme mislila je da je to šala ili da će se otkriti ozbiljni nedostaci u dizajnu sistema koji će ga učiniti neizvodljivim.

Vremenom se mreži pridružilo sve više ljudi koji su pomoću svojih računara dodali sigurnost mreži.

Ljudi su počeli da menjaju Bitcoin-e za robu i usluge, dajući mu stvarnu vrednost. Pojavile su se menjačnice valuta koje su menjale Bitcoin-e za gotovo sve tradicionalne valute na svetu.

Deset godina nakon izuma, Bitcoin koriste milioni ljudi sa desetinama do stotinama hiljada čvorova koji pokreću besplatni Bitcoin softver, koji se razvija od strane stotina dobrovoljaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Bitcoin mreža je porasla kako bi obezbedila vrednost veću od stotine biliona dolara.

Računari koji učestvuju u zaštiti Bitcoin mreže poznati su kao rudari/majneri.

Oni rade u industrijskim operacijama širom sveta, ulažući milione dolara u specijalni rudarski hardver koji radi samo jedno: pobrinuti se da je Bitcoin najsigurnija mreža na planeti.

Rudari troše električnu energiju kako bi transakcije Bitcoin-a učinile sigurnim od modifikacija. Budući da se rudari međusobno takmiče za oskudan broj Bitcoin-a proizvedenih dnevno, oni uvek moraju da pronalaze najjeftinije izvore energije na planeti da bi ostali profitabilni.

Rudari rade na različitim mestima, od hidroelektrana u dalekim krajevima Kine do vetroparkova u Teksasu, do kanadskih naftnih polja koja proizvode gas koji bi u suprotnom bio odzračen ili spaljen u atmosferi.

Iako je Bitcoin popularna tema i o njemu se često raspravlja u medijima, procenjujemo da je samo nekoliko miliona ljudi na svetu počelo da redovno štedi Bitcoin.

Za mnoge ljude, posebno za one koji nikada nisu živeli pod represivnim režimima, ovaj izum novog oblika digitalnog novca izvan kontrole vlade može biti veoma izazovan za razumevanje i prihvatanje.

Zato sam ja ovde. Želim da vam pomognem da razumete Bitcoin i budete gospodar svoje budućnosti!

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

2025-05-24 17:01:16

For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

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Microsoft Cloud hiring to "implement global small modular reactor and microreactor" strategy to power data centers: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-cloud-hiring-to-implement-global-small-modular-reactor-and-microreactor-strategy-to-power-data-centers/

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 6b0a60cf:b952e7d4

2025-04-01 11:53:31

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2025-05-24 16:13:51

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Definisanje novca
2. Šta je sredstvo razmene?
3. Šta je obračunska jedinica?
4. Šta je zaliha vrednosti?
5. Zašto su važne funkcije novca?
6. Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije
7. Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle
8. Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar
9. Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?
10. Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?
11. Efikasnija Ušteda Novca
12. Zasluge
13. Molim vas da šerujete!

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Google izveštava o stalnom povećanju interesa u svetu za pitanje „Šta je novac?“ koji se postavlja iz godine u godinu, od 2004. do 2021., a sa naglim porastom nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine.

I izgleda se da niko nema dobar odgovor za to.

Godišnji proseci mesečnih interesa za pretragu. 100 predstavlja najveći interes za pretragu tokom čitavog perioda, koji se dogodio u decembru 2019. Podaci sa Google Trends-a.

Međutim, odgovaranje na ovo naizgled jednostavno pitanje pomoći će vam da razjasnite ulogu novca u vašem životu. Jednom kada shvatite kako novac funkcioniše, tačno ćete videti i zašto svet danas ludi – i šta učiniti povodom toga. Zato hajde da se udubimo u to.

Na pitanje šta je novac, većina ljudi otvori svoje novčanike i pokaže nekoliko novčanica – “evo, ovo je novac!”

Ali po čemu se ove novčanice razlikuju od stranica vaše omiljene knjige? Pa, naravno, zavod za izradu novčanica te zemlje je odštampao te novčanice iz vašeg novčanika kako bi se oduprla falsifikovanju, i svi ih koriste da bi kupili odredjene stvari.

Međutim, Nemačka Marka imala je sva ova svojstva u prošlosti – ali preduzeća danas ne prihvataju te novčanice. Zapravo, građani Nemačke su početkom dvadesetih godina prošlog veka spaljivali papirne Marke kako bi grejali svoje domove. Marka je imala veću vrednost kao papir za potpalu nego kao novac!

1923. nemačka valuta poznata kao Marka bila je jeftinija od uglja i drveta!

Pa šta to čini novac, novcem?

Ispostavilo se da ovo nije pitanje na koje je lako dati odgovor.

Definisanje novca

Novac nije fizička stvar poput novčanice dolara. Novac je društveni sistem koji koristimo da bismo olakšali trgovinu robom i uslugama. Međutim, tokom istorije fizička monetarna dobra igrala su ključnu ulogu u društvenom sistemu novca, često kao znakovi koji predstavljaju vrednost u monetarnom sistemu. Ovaj sistem ima tri funkcije: 1) Sredstvo Razmene, 2) Obračunsku Jedinicu i 3) Zalihu Vrednosti.

Odakle dolaze ove funkcije, i zašto su one vredne?

Šta je sredstvo razmene?

Sredstvo razmene je neko dobro koje se obično razmenjuje za drugo dobro. Najčešće objašnjenje za to kako su se pojavila sredstva razmene glasi otprilike ovako: Boris ima ječam i želeo bi da kupi ovcu od Marka. Marko ima ovce, ali želi samo piliće. Ana ima piliće, ali ona ne želi ječam ili ovce.

To se naziva problem sticaja potreba: dve strane moraju da žele ono što druga ima da bi mogle da trguju. Ako se želje dve osobe ne podudaraju, oni moraju da pronađu druge ljude sa kojima će trgovati dok svi ne pronađu dobro koje žele.

Ljudi koji trguju robom i uslugama moraju da imaju potrebe koje se podudaraju.

Vremenom, veoma je verovatno da će se određena vrsta robe, poput pšenice, pojaviti kao sredstvo razmene jer su je mnogi ljudi želeli. Uzimajući pšenicu kao primer: pšenica je rešila “sticaje potreba” u mnogim zanatima, jer čak i ako onaj koji prima pšenicu a nije želeo da je koristi za sebe, znao je da će je neko drugi želeti.

Ovo nazivamo prodajnost imovine.

Pšenica je dobar primer dobra za prodaju jer svi moraju da jedu, a od pšenice se pravi hleb. Pšenica ima vrednost kao sastojak hleba i kao dobro koje olakšava trgovinu rešavanjem problema „sticaja potreba“.

Razmislite o svojoj želji da dobijete više novčanica u eurima ili drugoj valuti. Ne možete da jedete novčanice da biste preživeli, a i ne bi vam bile od velike koristi ako poželite da ih koristite kao građevinski materijal za vašu kuću. Međutim, znate da sa tim novčanicama možete da kupite hranu i kuću.

Stvarne fizičke novčanice su beskorisne za vas. Novčanice su vam dragocene samo zato što će ih drugi prihvatiti za stvari koje su vama korisne.

Tokom dugog perioda istorije, novac je evoluirao do te mere da monetarno dobro može imati vrednost, a da to dobro ne služi za bilo koju drugu ‘suštinsku’ upotrebu, poput hrane ili energije. Umesto toga, njegova upotreba je zaliha vrednosti i jednostavna zamena za drugu robu u bilo kom trenutku koji poželite.

Šta jedno dobro čini poželjnijim i prodajnijim od drugog dobra?

Deljivost

Definicija: Sposobnost podele dobra na manje količine.

Loš Primer: Dijamante je teško podeliti na manje komade. Za zajednicu od hiljada ljudi koji dnevno izvrše milione transakcija, dijamanti čine loše sredstvo razmene. Previše su retki i nedeljivi da bi se koristili za mnoge transakcije.

Ujednačenost

Definicija: Sličnost pojedinačnih jedinica odredjenog dobra.

Loš Primer: Krave nisu ujednačene – neke su veće, neke manje, neke bolesne, neke zdrave. Sa druge strane, unca čistog zlata je jednolična – jedna unca je potpuno ista kao sledeća. Ovo svojstvo se takođe često naziva zamenljivost.

Prenosivost

Definicija: Lakoća transporta dobra.

Loš Primer: Krava nije baš prenosiva. Zlatnici su prilično prenosivi. Papirne novčanice su još prenošljivije. Knjiga u kojoj se jednostavno beleži vlasništvo nad tim vrednostima (poput Rai kamenog sistema ili digitalnog bankovnog računa) je neverovatno prenosiva, jer nema fizičkog dobra koje treba nositi sa sobom za kupovinu. Postoji samo sistem za evidentiranje vlasništva nad tim vrednostima u nematerijalnom obliku.

Kako dobro postaje sredstvo razmene?

Dobra postaju, i ostaju sredstva razmene zbog svoje univerzalne potražnje, takođe poznate kao njihova prodajnost, čemu pomažu svojstva koja su gore nabrojana.

Mnogo različitih dobara mogu u različitoj meri delovati kao sredstva razmene u ekonomiji. Danas, naša globalna ekonomija koristi valute koje izdaju države, zlato, pa čak i robu poput nafte kao sredstvo razmene.

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Šta je obračunska jedinica?

Stvari se komplikuju kada u ekonomiji postoji mnogo robe koja se prodaje. Čak i sa samo 5 dobara, postoji 10 “kurseva razmene” između svake robe kojih svi u ekonomiji moraju da se sete: 1 svinja se menja za 15 pilića, 1 pile se menja za 15 litara mleka, desetak jaja se menja za 15 litara mleka, i tako dalje. Ako ekonomija ima 50 dobara, među njima postoji 1.225 “kurseva razmene”!

Sredstvo za merenje vrednosti

Zamislite obračunsku jedinicu kao sredstvo za merenje vrednosti. Umesto da se sećamo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa drugim dobrima, mi samo treba da se setimo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa jednim dobrom – obračunskom jedinicom.

Umesto da se setimo 1.225 kurseva razmene kada imamo 50 proizvoda na tržištu, mi treba da zapamtimo samo 50 cena.

Na primer, ne treba da se sećamo da litar mleka vredi 1/15 piletine ili desetak jaja, možemo da se samo setimo da litar mleka košta 1USD.

Poređenje dobara je lakše sa obračunskom jedinicom

Obračunska jedinica takođe olakšava upoređivanje vrednosti i donošenje odluka. Zamislite da pokušavate da kupite par Nike Air Jordan patika kada ih jedan prodavac prodaje za jedno pile, a drugi za 50 klipova kukuruza.

Šta je zaliha vrednosti?

Do sada smo gledali samo primere transakcija koje se odvijaju u određenom trenutku u vremenu.

Međutim, ljudi vrše transakcije tokom vremena – oni štede novac i troše ga kasnije. Da bi odredjeno dobro moglo da funkcioniše pravilno kao monetarno dobro, ono treba da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Novac koji vremenom dobro drži vrednost daje njegovom imaocu više izbora kada će taj novac da potroši.

To znači da prodajnost dobra uključuje njegovu sposobnost da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Šta jedno dobro čini boljom zalihom vrednosti od drugog dobra?

Trajnost

Definicija: Sposobnost dobra da vremenom zadrži svoj oblik.

Loš Primer: Jagode čine lošu zalihu vrednosti jer se lako oštete i brzo trunu.

Odluka je daleko lakša ako jedan prodavac naplaćuje 150 USD, a drugi 200 USD – odmah je očigledno koja je bolja ponuda jer su vrednosti izražene u istoj jedinici.

Teške za Proizvodnju

Definicija: Teškoće koje ljudi imaju u proizvodnji veće količine dobra.

Loš Primer: Papirne novčanice predstavljaju lošu zalihu vrednosti jer banke i vlade mogu jeftino da ih naprave.

Sa zlatom je suprotno – u ponudi se nalazi ograničena količina uprkos velikoj potražnji za njim, jednostavno zato što ga je vrlo teško iskopati iz zemlje. Ova ograničena ponuda osigurava da svaka jedinica zlata održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Kako dobra postaju zalihe vrednosti?

Dobro postaje zaliha vrednosti ako se vremenom pokaže trajnim i teškim za proizvodnju.

Samo će vreme pokazati da li je neko dobro zaista trajno i da li ga je teško proizvesti. Zbog toga neki oblici novca su postojali vekovima pre nego što je neko otkrio način da ih proizvede više, i na kraju se to dobro više nije koristilo kao novac.

Ovo je priča o školjkama, Rai kamenju i mnogim drugim oblicima novca tokom istorije.

Zlato je primer dobra koje je hiljadama godina služilo kao dobra zaliha vrednosti. Zlato se ne razgrađuje tokom vremena i još uvek ga je teško proizvesti. Hiljadama godina alhemičari su bezuspešno pokušavali da sintetišu zlato iz jeftinih materijala.

Čak i sa današnjim naprednim rudarskim tehnikama, svake godine svi svetski rudnici zlata zajedno mogu da proizvedu samo 2% od ukupne ponude zlata u prometu.

Teškoće u proizvodnji zlata daju izuzetno visok odnos “zaliha i protoka”: zaliha je broj postojećih jedinica, a protok su nove jedinice stvorene tokom određenog vremenskog perioda. Svake godine se stvori vrlo malo novih jedinica zlata, iako je potražnja za zlatom obično vrlo velika.

Kombinujući ovo sa deljivošću, ujednačenošću i prenosivošću zlata, nije ni čudo što je zlato čovečanstvu služilo kao monetarno dobro tokom poslednjih 5.000 godina. Pošto je zlato teško proizvesti, možemo ga nazvati teškim novcem (hard money).

Kao rezultat toga, svoju vrednost je u velikoj meri zadržao kroz milenijume. Cena većine dobara i usluga u pogledu zlata zapravo se vremenom smanjivala kao rezultat tehnoloških inovacija, koje sve proizvode čine jeftinijim.

Uzmimo na primer cene hrane prema praćenju Kancelarije za hranu i poljoprivredu UN-a: sa obzirom na skokove u poljoprivrednoj tehnologiji tokom poslednjih 60 godina, cene hrane drastično su pale kada se procenjuju u zlatu. To čak i važi uprkos činjenici da obični ljudi retko koriste zlato za kupovinu stvari.

Cene hrane su padale u pogledu zlata tokom proteklih 60 godina, i mnogo pre toga (FAO Indeks Cena Hrane u Zlatu)

Zaliha vrednosti omogućava ljudima da uštede novac kako bi mogli da ga ulažu u pokretanje preduzeća i obrazovanje, povećavajući produktivnost društva.

Monetarna dobra koja dobro čuvaju vrednost takođe podstiču dugoročniji pogled na život, ili kratke vremenske preference. Pojedinac može da radi 10 godina, uštedi odredjeno monetarno dobro koje je dobra zaliha vrednosti, i nema potrebe da se plaši da će njegova ušteđevina biti izbrisana krahom tržišta ili povećanjem ponude tog dobra.

Zašto su važne funkcije novca?

Kada neki oblik novca izgubi bilo koju od svojih važnih funkcija kao što su sredstvo razmene, obračunska jedinica i zaliha vrednosti, celokupna ekonomija i društvo mogu da se rastrgnu.

Tokom istorije često vidimo grupe ljudi koje eksploatišu druge iskorišćavajući nesporazume o novcu i važnosti njegovih funkcija.

Sledeće, proći ću kroz istoriju novca, prvo hipotetički da bih ilustrovao poentu, a zatim ću preći na stvarne istorijske primere. Kroz ove primere videćemo štetne efekte na društva u slučajevima kada se izgubi samo jedna od tih ključnih funkcija novca.

Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije

Kroz istoriju, mnoga dobra su dolazila i odlazila kao oblici novca. Na žalost, kada se neki oblik novca ukine, ponekad postoji grupa ljudi koja eksploatiše drugi oblik manipulišući tim novcem.

Hajde da pogledamo hipotetičko selo zvano Njutonija da bismo razumeli kako dolazi do ove eksploatacije.

Zelene perle postaju Novac

Tokom stotina godina ribolova u obližnjoj reci, stanovnici Njutonije sakupljali su zelene perle iz vode. Zrnca su mala, lagana, izdržljiva, jednolična i retko se pojavljuju u reci. Ljudi prvo priželjkuju perle zbog svoje lepote. Na kraju, seljani shvataju da svi drugi žele perle – one se vrlo lako mogu prodati. Zrnca uskoro postaju sredstvo razmene i obračunska jedinica u selu: pile je 5 zrna, vreća jabuka 2 zrna, krava 80 zrna.

Ukupna ponuda perli je prilično konstantna i cene se vremenom ne menjaju mnogo. Seoski starešina je uveren da može da se opustiti u poslednjim danima živeći od svoje velike zalihe perli.

Alhemičar stvara više perli

Seoski alhemičar je poželeo da bude bogat čovek, ali nije voleo da vredno radi na tome. Umesto da traži perle u reci ili da prodaje vrednu robu drugim seljanima, on sedeo je u svojoj laboratoriji. Na kraju je otkrio kako da lako stvori stotine perli sa malo peska i vatre.

Seljani koji su tragali za perlama u reci bili su srećni ako bi svaki dan pronašli po 1 zrno. Alhemičar je mogao da proizvede stotine uz malo napora.

Alhemičar troši svoje perle

Budući da je bio prilično zao, alhemičar nije svoj metod pravljenja zrna delio ni sa kim drugim. Stvorio je sebi još više perli i počeo da ih troši za dobra na tržištu u Njutoniji. Tokom sledećih meseci, alhemičar je kupio farmu pilića, nekoliko krava, finu svilu, posteljine i ogromno imanje. On je imao priliku da kupi ova dobra po normalnim cenama na tržištu.

Alhemičarevo trošenje ostavljalo je seljanima mnogo perli, ali malo njihove vredne robe.

Svi seljani su se osećali bogatima – imali su tone perli! Međutim, polako su primetili da i svi ostali takodje imaju tone.

Cene počinju da rastu

Uzgajivač pilića primetio je da sva roba koju je trebalo da kupi na pijaci poskupela. Džak jabuka sada se prodaje za 100 perli – 50 puta više od njihove cene pre nekoliko meseci!

Iako je sada imao hiljade perli, uskoro bi mogao da ostane bez njih zbog ovih cena. Pitao se – da li zaista može sebi da priušti da prodaje svoje piliće za samo 5 perli po komadu? Morao je i on da podigne svoje cene.

Jednostavno rečeno, kao rezultat alhemičarevog trošenja njegovih novostvorenih perli, bilo je previše perli koje su jurile premalo dobara – pa su cene porasle.

Kupci robe bili su spremni da potroše više perli da bi kupili potrebna dobra. Prodavci robe su trebali da naplate više da bi bili sigurni da su zaradili dovoljno da kupe potrebna dobra za sebe.

Budući da su cene svih dobara porasle, možemo reći da se vrednost svake perle smanjila.

Nejednakost bogatstva raste

Seoski starešina, koji je vredno radio da sačuva hiljade perli, sada se našao osiromašenim i gladnim. U međuvremenu, alhemičar je udobno sedeo na svom velikom imanju sa kravama, pilićima i slugama koji su se brinuli za svaki njegov hir.

Alhemičar je efikasno ukrao bogatstvo celog sela, tako što je jeftino proizvodio perle i koristio ih za kupovinu vredne robe.

Ono što je najvažnije, kupio je robu pre nego što je tržište shvatilo da je više perli u opticaju i da ima manje robe, što je dovelo do rasta cena. Ova dodatna proizvodnja perli nije dodala korisnu robu ili usluge selu.

Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle

Nažalost, priča o alhemičaru iz Njutonije nije u potpunosti hipotetička. Ovaj prenos bogatstva kroz stvaranje novca ima istorijske i moderne presedane.

Na primer, afrička plemena su nekada koristila staklene perle, poznate kao “agri perle”, kao sredstvo razmene. U to vreme plemenskim ljudima je bilo veoma teško da prave staklene perle, i one su predstavljale težak novac unutar njihovog plemenskog društva.

Niko nije mogao jeftino da proizvede perle i koristiti ih za kupovinu skupe, vredne robe poput kuća, hrane i odeće.

Sve se promenilo kada su stigli Evropljani, i primetili upotrebu staklenih perli kao novca.

U to vreme, Evropljani su mogli jeftino da stvaraju staklo u velikim količinama. Kao rezultat toga, Evropljani su počeli tajno da uvoze perle i koriste ih za kupovinu dobara, usluga i robova od Afrikanaca.

Vremenom se iz Afrike izvlačila vredna roba i ljudi, dok je plemenima ostajalo mnogo perli i malo robe.

Perle su izgubile veći deo vrednosti zbog inflacije uzrokovane snabdevanjem od strane Evropljana.

Rezultat je bio osiromašenje afričkih plemena i bogaćenje Evropljana, kako to ovde objašnjava monetarni istoričar Bezant Denier.

Dragocena roba je kupljena jeftino proizvedenim monetarnim dobrom.

Profitiranje na proizvodnji novca: Emisiona dobit

Ova priča ilustruje kako se bogatstvo prenosi kada jedna grupa može jeftino da proizvodi monetarno dobro.

Razlika između troškova proizvodnje monetarnog dobra i vrednosti tog monetarnog dobra poznata je kao emisiona dobit, eng. seignorage.

Kada je monetarno dobro mnogo vrednije od troškova proizvodnje, ljudi će proizvesti više od monetarnog dobra da bi uhvatili profit od emisione dobiti.

Na kraju će ova povećana ponuda dovesti do pada vrednosti monetarnog dobra. To je zbog zakona ponude i potražnje: kada se ponuda povećava, cena (poznata i kao vrednost) dobra opada.

Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar

U priči o Njutoniji, alhemičar je otkrio način da se od malo peska jeftino stvori više zelenih perli. To se u stvarnosti odigralo kroz trgovinu između Evropljana i Afrikanaca, pričom o agri perlama. Međutim, ove priče su pomalo zastarele – mi više ne trgujemo robom za perle.

Da bismo nas doveli do modernog doba, hajde da promenimo neka imena u našoj priči:

1. Selo Njutonija postaje država koja se zove Kejnsland
2. Alhemičar postaje bankar
3. Seoski starešina postaje penzioner
4. Zelene perle postaju zlato, koje niko ne može jeftinije da stvori – čak ni bankar.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Zlato

Kao i u stvarnosti, bankar u ovoj priči nema formulu ili trik da stvori više zlata. Međutim, bankar bezbedno čuva zlato u vlasništvu svakog građanina Kejnslanda. Bankar daje svakom građaninu po jednu potvrdu za svaku uncu zlata koje ima u svom trezoru.

Te potvrde se mogu iskoristiti u bilo koje vreme za stvarno zlato. Papirne potvrde ili novčanice su mnogo pogodnije za plaćanje nego nošenje zlata kroz supermarket.

Građani su srećni – oni imaju prikladno sredstvo plaćanja u vidu bankarevih novčanica, i znaju da niko ne može da ukrade njihovo bogatstvo falsifikujući više zlata.

Građani na kraju počinju da plaćaju u potpunosti papirnim novčanicama, ne trudeći se nikad da zamene svoje novčanice za zlato. Na kraju, novčanice postaju “dobre kao i zlato” – svaka predstavlja fiksnu količinu zlata u bankarevom trezoru.

Ukupno kruži 1.000.000 novčanica, od kojih je svaka otkupljiva za jednu uncu zlata. 1.000.000 unci zlata sedi u bankarevom trezoru. Svaka novčanica je u potpunosti podržana u zlatu.

Starešina koji je sačuvao sve svoje perle u priči o Njutoniji sada je penzioner u Kejnslandu, koji svoje zlato drži u banci i planira da ugodno živi od novčanica koje je dobio zauzvrat.

Hajde da u ovu priču dodamo i novi lik: premijera Kejnslanda. Premijer naplaćuje porez od građana i koristi ga za plaćanje javnih usluga poput policije i vojske. Premijer takođe drži vladino zlato kod bankara.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Dug

Premijer želi da osigura da nacionalno zlato ostane na sigurnom, pa banku štiti policijom. Bankar i premijer se zbog toga zbližavaju, pa premijer traži uslugu. Traži od bankara da kreira 200.000 novčanica za premijera, uz obećanje da će mu premijer vratiti za pet godina. Premijeru su novčanice potrebne za finansiranje rata. Građani Kejnslanda borili su se protiv većih poreza zbog finansiranja rata, pa je morao da se obrati bankaru.

Bankar se slaže da izradi novčanice, ali pod jednim uslovom: bankar uzima deo od 10.000 novčanica za sebe. Premijer prihvata posao kojim bankar ’kupuje državni dug’. Sada je u opticaju 1.200.000 novčanica, potpomognutih kombinacijom 1.000.000 unci zlata i ugovorom o dugu sa vladom za 200.000 novčanica.

Premijer troši svoje nove novčanice na bombe kupujući ih od dobavljača iz domaće vojne industrije, a bankar sebi kupuje veliki luksuzni stan.

Dobavljač iz vojne industrije koristi sve nove novčanice koje je dobio od premijera da kupi amonijum nitrat (đubrivo koje se koristi u bombama) za proizvodnju bombi. Sve njegove kupovine povećavaju cenu đubriva za uzgajivače pšenice u Kejnslandu, pa oni podižu cenu pšenice.

Kao uzrok toga, pekar koji kupuje pšenicu treba da podigne cenu svog hleba da bi ostao u poslu. Na taj način cene u Kejnslandu počinju da rastu, baš kao što su to činile u Njutoniji kada su nove perle ušle u opticaj.

Papirne Novčanice Više Ne Predstavljaju Zlato

Penzioner nailazi na finansijski časopis u kojem se pominje premijerov dogovor da se zaduži za finansiranje rata. Obzirom da je mudar, on zna da bombe loše vraćaju ulaganje i sumnja da će premijer ikada da vrati svoj dug.

Ako on ‘podmiri’ svoj dug, to bi ostavilo 1.200.000 novčanica u opticaju sa samo 1.000.000 unci zlata da bi ih podržalo, obezvređujući njegovu ušteđevinu. Već oseća stisak u džepu zbog porasta cena, i on odlučuje da se uputi u lokalnu banku i preda svoje novčanice i zameni ih za zlato, koje niko ne može da napravi u većoj količini.

Kada penzioner stigne u banku, on zatiče i mnoge druge okupljene oko banke. Svi oni se nadaju da će uzeti zlato koje predstavljaju njihove novčanice. Građani Kejnslanda sa pravom se plaše da njihove novčanice gube na vrednosti – oni to već osećaju zbog porasta cena.

Vrata su zaključana, sa obaveštenjem bankara na njima:

Po nalogu premijera, onom koji se plaši za stabilnost ove bankarske institucije, ova banka više neće podržavati konvertibilnost papirnih novčanica u zlato. Hvala vam!

Gomila se razilazi, ostavljena sa jednim izborom: da zadrže svoje novčanice, koje sada vrede manje od 1 unce zlata. Građani sa dovoljno finansijske stabilnosti odlučuju da ulože svoje novčanice u kupovinu akcija banke i kompanija vojne industrije, koje dobro posluju jer mogu da kupuju stvari pre nego što se povećaju tržišne cene.

Mnogi ljudi nisu u mogućnosti da investiraju – oni moraju da gledaju kako njihove zarade stagniraju i kako njihova ušteđevina polako ali sigurno gubi vrednost.

Penzioner, koji se nadao da će živeti od novčanica koje je zaradio tokom svojih 40 radnih godina, sada 40 sati nedeljno provodi iza kase u lokalnoj prodavnici, pitajući se gde je sve pošlo po zlu.

Dug Nikada Nije Otplaćen

Prošlo je nekoliko godina, a premijerov dug prema banci dolazi na naplatu. Budući da je potrošio svih 200.000 novčanica na bombe, koje nemaju baš dobar povraćaj ulaganja, on nema novčanice koje može da vrati banci. Plus, premijer želi da kupi još bombi za svoj rat.

Bankar uverava premijera da je sve u redu. Bankar će napraviti novi ugovor o dugu za 600.000 novčanica, koji bi trebao da stigne na naplatu u narednih 5 godina. Premijer može da iskoristi 200.000 od tih novih 600.000 novčanica da vrati svoj prvobitni dug prema banci, zadrži još 300.000 da kupi još bombi i da 100.000 bankaru da bi mu platio njegove usluge.

To nastavlja da se dešava – svaki put kada dug dospeva na naplatu, bankar stvara više novčanica za vraćanje starijih dugova i daje premijeru još više novca za trošenje. Ovaj ciklus se nastavlja.

Šta se dešava u Kejnslandu?

• Oni koji prvi dobiju nove novčanice, gledaju kako se njihovo bogatstvo povećava
• To uključuje bankara, premijera, vladu i sve one koji mogu da pristupe mogućnostima za investiranje u preduzeća koja prva dobiju nove novčanice (finansijske, vojne itd.).
• Cene roba rastu
• Cene se ne povećavaju ravnomerno – one se povećavaju gde god nove novčanice prvo uđu u ekonomiju i od tog trenutka imaju efekat talasa na tržišta. U našem primeru prvo raste cena amonijum nitrata, zatim cena pšenice, pa cena hleba. A tek na kraju zarade običnih ljudi.
• Štednja i životni standard opšte populacije se smanjuju
• Najviše pate oni koji žive od plate do plate i ne mogu da ulažu. Čak i oni koji su u mogućnosti da investiraju podložni su hirovima tržišta. Mnogi su prisiljeni da prodaju svoje investicije po niskim cenama tokom pada tržišta samo da bi platili svoje dnevne potrebe.
• Razlika u prihodima i bogatstvu između bogatih i siromašnih se povećava
• Bogatstvo opšte populacije se smanjuje, dok se bogatstvo onih koji su blizu mesta gde se troše nove novčanice povećava. Rezultat je disparitet koji se vremenom samo proširuje.

Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?

Priča o Njutoniji i stvarna priča o agri perlama u Africi deluju pomalo zastarelo. Priča o Kejnslandu, međutim, deluje neobično poznato. U našem svetu cene robe uvek rastu, i vidimo rekordne nivoe nejednakosti u bogatstvu.

U poslednjem odeljku ovog našeg članka Šta je novac, proći ću kroz nastanak bankarstva i korake koji su bili potrebni da se dođe do današnjeg sistema, gde banke i vlade sarađuju u kontroli ekonomije i samog novca.

Šta su banke, i odakle su one došle?

Pojava bankarstva verovatno se dogodila da bi olakšala poljoprivrednu trgovinu i da bi povećala pogodnosti. Iako su se mnoga društva na kraju konvergirala ka upotrebi zlata i srebra kao novca, ovi metali su bili teški i opasni za nošenje kao tovar. Međutim, u mnogim slučajevima ih nije ni trebalo prevoziti. Uzmite ovaj primer:

Grad treba da plati poljoprivrednicima na selu za žito, a poljoprivrednici gradskoj vojsci za zaštitu od varvara. U ovom dogovoru zlato se kreće u oba smera: prema poljoprivrednicima u selu kako bi im se platilo žito, i nazad u grad da bi se platila vojska. Da bi olakšali ove transakcije, preduzetnici su stvorili koncept banke. Banka je zlato čuvala u sigurnom trezoru i izdavala novčanice od papira. Svaka priznanica je predstavljala potvrdu da njen imaoc poseduje određenu količinu zlata u banci. Imaoc novčanice je u svako doba mogao da uzme svoje zlato nazad vraćanjem te novčanice banci.

Korisnici banke mogli su lakše da trguju sa novčanicama od papira, i onaj koji poseduje novčanice mogao je da preuzme njihovo fizičko zlato u bilo kom trenutku. To je te novčanice učinilo “dobrim kao i zlato”.

Banke su izdržavale svoje poslovanje naplaćujući od kupaca naknadu za skladištenje zlata ili pozajmljivanjem dela zlata i zaračunavanjem kamata na njega. Trgovina na ovaj način je mogla da se odvija sa laganim novčanicama od papira umesto sa teškim vrećama zlatnika.

Ovakva praksa sa transakcijama, korišćenjem papirne valute potpomognute monetarnim dobrima, verovatno je započela u Kini u 7. veku.

Na kraju se proširila Evropom 1600-ih, a svoj zalet dobila je u Holandiji sa bankama poput Amsterdamske Wisselbanke. Novčanice Wisselbank-e često su vredele više od zlata koje ih je podržavalo, zbog dodane vrednosti njihovih pogodnosti.

Uspon nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’

Tokom vekova, zlato je počelo da se sakuplja u trezorima banaka, jer su ljudi više voleli pogodnosti transakcija sa novčanicama.

Na kraju, nacionalne banke u vlasništvu vlada preuzele su ulogu čuvanja zlata od privatnih banaka koje su započeli preduzetnici.

Nacionalne papirne valute potpomognute zlatnim rezervama u nacionalnim bankama zamenile su novčanice iz privatnih banaka. Sve nacionalne valute bile su jednostavno potvrde za zlato koje se nalazilo u trezoru nacionalne banke.

Ovaj sistem je poznat kao zlatni standard – sve valute su jednostavno predstavljale različite težine zlata.

U gornjem levom uglu novčanice možete videti da piše da je novčanica “zamenljiva za zlato”. Savremeni dolari nemaju ovaj natpis, ali inače izgledaju vrlo slično. Izvor

Zlatni sistem je postojao veći deo vremena, sve do Prvog svetskog rata. Vladama je bilo teško da prikupe novac za ovaj rat putem poreza, pa su morale da budu kreativne.

Kada vlade troše više nego što zarađuju na porezima, to se naziva deficitna potrošnja.

Kako vlade mogu ovo da urade? Vlade to rade tako što pozajmljuju novac prodavajući svoj dug.

Tokom Prvog svetskog rata, vlade su građanima i preduzećima prodavale vrstu duga koja se naziva ratna obveznica. Kada građanin kupi ratnu obveznicu, on preda svoj novac vladi i dobije papir u kojem je stajalo vladino obećanje da će vlasniku obveznice vratiti novac, plus kamate, za nekoliko godina.

Plakat koji obaveštava građane, tražeći od njih da kupe ratne obveznice – što predstavlja zajam vladi. Izvor

Centralne banke ‘monetizuju’ državni dug

Međutim, građani i preduzeća nisu bili voljni da kupe dovoljno ratnih obveznica za finansiranje Prvog svetskog rata.

Vlade se nisu predale – pa su zatražile od svojih nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’ da one kupe ove obveznice. Centralne banke su otkupile obveznice, ali ih nisu platile valutom potpomognutom postojećim zlatnim rezervama, kao što su to činili građani i banke prilikom kupovine obveznica.

Centralne banke su umesto toga davale vladi novu, sveže štampanu papirnu valutu potpomognutu samo obveznicom. Ovu valutu podržalo je samo obećanje da će im vlada vratiti dugove. Ovo je poznato kao monetizacija duga.

Budući da su ratne obveznice i valuta samo komadi papira, one su lake i jeftine za proizvodnju i mogu se napraviti u ogromnim količinama. Ono što ograničava proizvodnju i jednog i drugog je poverenje.

Ima smisla da se neko rastane od svog teško stečenog novca da kupi državnu obveznicu, samo ako veruje da će vlada da vrati svoj dug, plus kamate. Centralna banka je “krajnji kupac”, što znači da će ona da kupi državne obveznice kada to niko drugi neće da uradi.

Zapamtite, centralnu banku gotovo da ništa ne košta da kupi državne obveznice, jer oni sami štampaju valutu da bi ih kupili.

Zamislite da pridjete najskupljem automobilu u autosalonu – koji košta 100.000 USD. Mislite da je automobil lep, ali taj novac biste radije potrošili na lepši stan – tako da ste spremni da platite samo 40.000 USD za taj auto.

Sada, hajde da zamislimo da imate štampač za novac i da vas košta samo 50 USD za mastilo i papir da bi ištampali 1.000.000 USD. Vi biste odmah kupili auto, čak i ako biste morali da se cenkate sa drugim čovekom, i da ga na kraju platite 150.000 USD!

Ista stvar se dešava kada centralna banka kupuje obveznice (dugove) od vlade. Centralna banka može da stvori valutu toliko jeftino, da su spremni da plate i više nego što bi drugi platili ove obveznice i nastaviće da ih kupuju čak i kada niko drugi ne bude želeo.

Monetizacija duga uzrokuje inflaciju

Kada centralne banke monetizuju državni dug, funkcija novca kao zalihe vrednosti počinje da se nagriza. Vlada troši novi novac koji je dobila od svoje centralne banke na ratnu robu, obroke i još mnogo toga.

Cene roba rastu od ove novoštampane valute koja kruži kroz ekonomiju. Kada se cene povećavaju, to znači da se vrednost svake jedinice valute smanjuje. Svi koji drže valutu sada imaju manje vrednosti. Danas to nazivamo sporim gubitkom funkcije zalihe vrednosti u novčanoj inflaciji.

Za Nemačku nakon Prvog svetskog rata monetizacija duga izazvala je totalni slom Nemačke ekonomije i stvorila uslove za rast fašizma.

Kao deo sporazuma o prekidu vatre koji je okončao Prvi svetski rat, Nemačka je pobednicima morala da plati ogroman novac. Nemačkoj vladi je bio preko potreban novac, pa su prodale obveznice (dug) Rajhsbanci, nemačkoj centralnoj banci.

Ovaj postupak doveo je do toga da je vlada štampala toliko maraka (tadašnja nemačka valuta) da je tempo inflacije u Nemačkoj ubrzan u hiperinflaciju početkom 1920-ih. Cena vekne hleba za samo 4 godine popela se sa 1,2 marke na 428 biliona maraka.

Tokom i posle Prvog svetskog rata, SAD, Britanija, Francuska i mnoge druge vlade pratile su Nemačku u štampanju valute potpomognute državnim dugom.

To je dovelo do toga da su građani želeli da svoju papirnu valutu zamene za zlato, baš kao i penzioner iz priče o Kejnslandu.

Međutim, mnoge vlade su suspendovale konvertibilnost svojih valuta u zlato. Ovim potezom vlade su primorale svoje građane da drže nacionalnu papirnu valutu i gledaju kako se njihova ušteda smanjuje u vrednosti.

Da bi mogle da nastave da štampaju novac i da bi ga trošile na nepopularne programe za koje nisu mogle da skupljaju poreze za finansiranje – poput ratova.

Bretton Woods: Novi monetarni sistem

Nakon razaranja koja su donela dva svetska rata, vlade su uspostavile novi globalni monetarni sistem prema Bretton Woods-ovom sporazumu iz 1944. godine.

Prema ovom sporazumu, valuta svake države konvertovala se po fiksnom kursu sa američkim dolarom. Američki dolar je zauzvrat predstavljao zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu trojsku uncu zlata*.

Sve globalne valute su stoga još uvek bile jednostavna reprezentacija zlata, putem američkih dolara kao posrednika. Redovni građani više nisu mogli da otkupljuju svoje valute za zlato iz Sjedinjenih Država. Međutim, strane centralne banke mogle bi da dođu u Sjedinjene Države da bi zamenile dolare za zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu uncu zlata.

Međutim, vlada Sjedinjenih Država nije uvek držala dovoljno zlata da podrži sve dolare u opticaju. Američka vlada nastavila je da finansira proširene socijalne i vojne programe prodajom državnog duga svojoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim rezervama, koja je povećala ponudu dolara bez povećanja ponude zlata koja podupire te dolare.

*Trojna unca je standardna mera čistog zlata i ima malo veću težinu od normalne unce.

Propast Bretton Woods-a

Tokom 1970-ih, sve veći troškovi rata u Vijetnamu i stranih vlada koje su otkupljivale svoje dolare za zlato, stvorili su pritisak na Trezor Sjedinjenih Država.

Ponuda dolara je porasla, dok je zlato u posedu Sjedinjenih Država opalo. Od 1950. pa do početka 1970-ih, rezerve zlata koje je držala vlada Sjedinjenih Država smanjile su se za više od 50%, sa 20 metričkih tona na samo 8 metričkih tona.

Godine 1970. država je imala zlata u vrednosti od samo 12 biliona dolara po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata. Tokom ovog istog vremenskog perioda, ukupna ponuda američkih dolara otišla je sa oko 32 biliona USD na skoro 70 biliona USD.

Zvanične rezerve zlata u SAD-u su naglo padale od 1950. do 1970. godine, dok su se dolari u opticaju povećavali. Izvor: Wikipedia, DollarDaze.org

Američka vlada nije bila u stanju da potkrepi dolare zlatom od 35 dolara po trojnoj unci, što dovelo do rizika za čitav globalni monetarni sistem.

Početkom sedamdesetih godina, trojna unca zlata trebala je da vredi 200 USD da bi u potpunosti podržala sve američke dolare u opticaju. Rečeno na drugi način, Sjedinjene Države su pokušavale da kažu svetu da jedan dolar vredi 1/35 trojne unce zlata, ali u stvarnosti dolar je vredeo samo 1/200 trojne unce.

Kad su strane vlade trebale da pribave dolare za međunarodnu trgovinu i rezerve, bile su opelješene. Francuska vlada je to shvatila šezdesetih godina prošlog veka i počela je da prodaje svoje američke dolare za zlato po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata.

Zemlje su počinjale da se bude iz šeme američke vlade. SAD su krale bogatstvo putem emisione dobiti, prodajući dolare za 1/35 trojne unce zlata, kada su vredeli samo 1/200 trojske unce.

Nixonov Šok ulazi u ’tradicionalni’ novac

Da bi kuća od karata mogla da ostane na mestu, predsednik Nixon je 1971. najavio da će američka vlada privremeno da obustavi konvertibilnost dolara u zlato.

Strane vlade više nisu mogle da polažu pravo na zlato svojim papirnim dolarima, a dolar više nije bio “poduprt” zlatom. Nixon je tvrdio da će ovo stabilizovati dolar.

50 godina kasnije, kristalno je jasno da je ovo samo pomoglo dolaru da izgubi vrednost i da ovaj “privremeni” program još uvek traje.

Pre 1971. godine, sve globalne valute bile su vezane za američki dolar putem Bretton Woods-ovog sporazuma. Kada je Nixon promenio američki dolar iz dolara podržanog u zlatu u dolar podržan dugom, ovim je promenio i svaku drugu valutu na Zemlji.

Sam je učinio da se celokupna svetska ekonomija zasniva na dugovima. Valute više nisu predstavljale zlato, već su predstavljale vrednost državnog duga.

Zlatni Standard se nikada nije vratio

Konvertibilnost američkih dolara u zlato – zlatni standard – nikada se nije vratio.

Od 1971. godine, čitav globalni monetarni sistem pokreće se tradicionalnim “fiat” valutama: poverenjem u vladine institucije da održavaju valutni sistem.

Većina valuta podržana je kombinacijom duga njihove vlade i drugih tradicionalnih valuta poput dolara i evra. Papirne valute više nisu podržane zlatom, imovinom koja je više od 5000 godina služila kao težak novac.

Danas vas vlade prisiljavaju da plaćate porez u njihovoj valuti i manipulišu saznanjima oko novca kako bi osigurale da potražnja za njihovom valutom ostane velika.

To im omogućava da neprestano štampaju više valuta, da bi je potrošili na vladine projekte, uzrokujući inflaciju cena koja jede i smanjuje bogatstvo i plate.

Američka vlada sada prodaje državne obveznice (dugove), poznate kao obveznice Trezora SAD, eng. US Treasuries, komercijalnim bankama u zamenu za američke dolare.

Vlada koristi te dolare za finansiranje svog budžetskog deficita. Komercijalne banke prodaju mnoge obveznice Trezora SAD, koje su kupile, američkoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim Rezervama.

Federalne rezerve plaćaju komercijalnim bankama sveže štampanim novcem “pomoću računara i upisivanjem količine na račun”, kako je rekao bivši predsednik Fed-a Ben Bernanke.

Ove komercijalne banke često zarađuju samo kupujući obveznice Trezora SAD od države i prodajući ih centralnoj banci. Kupujte nisko, prodajte visoko.

Centralne banke ovaj proces kupovine državnog duga – odnosno pozajmljivanja novca državi – nazivaju operacijama otvorenog tržišta.

Kada centralna banka odjednom kupi velike iznose duga, oni to nazivaju kvantitativnim ublažavanjem. Centralne banke javno najavljuju kupovinu državnog duga, ali vrlo malo ljudi razume šta to zapravo znači.

Euro, jen i svaka druga valuta koja se danas koristi funkcionišu slično kao američki dolar.

Da li će SAD ikada vratiti svoj nacionalni dug? Neobična stvar u vezi sa državnim dugom SAD-a je ta što vlada poseduje štampariju potrebnu za njegovu otplatu.

Kao rezultat toga, kada vlada duguje novac, oni samo pozajme još više novca da bi otplatile taj dug, povećavajući nacionalni dug.

Ako vam ovo zvuči kao Ponzijeva piramidalna šema, to je zato što ona to i jeste – najveća Ponzijeva šema u istoriji. Kao i svaka Ponzijeva šema, nastaviće se sve dok su ljudi koji kupuju Ponzijevu šemu budu uvereni da će im biti plaćeno nazad.

Ako ljudi i nacije prestanu da se zadužuju i koriste američke dolare jer nemaju poverenja u američku vladu ili vide da cena robe raste (tj. dolar postaje sve manje vredan), potražnja za dolarom će opadati, što će izazvati začaranu spiralu.

Ova spirala često završi u hiperinflaciji, kao što smo videli u novijoj istoriji sa Jugoslavijom, Venecuelom, Argentinom, Zimbabveom i mnogim drugim državama.

Ovo je način kako funkcioniše novac na vašem bankovnom računu. Novac svake nacije na svetu pati od istih problema kao i perle i novčanice u pričama o Njutoniji i Kejnslandu.

Kako banke i vlade kradu tvoj novac?

Tokom vekova, stigli smo do monetarnog sistema u kojem banke i vlade mogu da štampaju novu valutu za finansiranje svojih operacija i svojih prijatelja u zločinu, dok kradu bogatstvo svojih građana.

Šta će se desiti sa svetom kada novac bude mogao da štampa svaki narod na planeti?

• Bogatstvo onih koji su blizu pravljenja nove valute se povećava
• Vlada i politički povlašćena klasa ljudi, imaju pristup novoštampanom novcu pre svih ostalih, pa mogu da ga potroše pre nego što cene porastu. Na ovaj efekat pokazao je ekonomista Richard Cantillon sredinom 1700-ih i poznat je kao Cantillonov Efekat.
• Cena robe raste (poznato kao inflacija
• Ne raste sve roba istovremeno u ceni. Roba blizu mesta gde se proizvodi nova valuta – finansijski sektor i vlada – prva raste, i odatle uzrokuje efekt talasa na cene.
• Inflacija se često predstavlja kao promena cene potrošačke korpe, poznata kao Indeks Potrošačkih Cena, eng. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Vlada ima alate za manipulisanje ovim brojem kako bi osigurala da se ona čini niskom i stabilnom, kao što je objašnjeno u našem članku o inflaciji.
• Finansijska imovina često primećuje ogromnu inflaciju, ali bankari to ne nazivaju inflacijom – oni kažu da naša ekonomija cveta! Nakon što su američke Federalne rezerve učetvorostručile ponudu američkih dolara u šest godina nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine, banke koje su dobile te nove dolare, kupile su akcije i obveznice, stvarajući ogroman balon u cenama ove imovine.
• Štednja i životni standard stanovništva se smanjuju
• Plate su jedna od poslednjih “cena” u ekonomiji koja se prilagođava, jer se često povećavaju samo jednom godišnje. U međuvremenu, cene dnevnih potrepština te osobe koja zaradjuje platu neprestano rastu kako novi novac kruži ekonomijom.
• Najviše su pogođeni oni koji žive od plate do plate – a to je 70% Amerikanaca.
• Razlike u prihodima između bogatih i siromašnih se povećavaju, kao što se vidi na grafikonu ispod.

*Koncentracija dohotka na vrhu naglo je porasla od 1970-ih

Zašto i dalje imamo isti monetarni sistem?

Ako ovaj sistem bogate još više obogaćuje, a siromašne još više osiromašuje, dovodeći do političke nestabilnosti, zašto ga onda ne bismo promenili?

Najveći razlog zašto se ništa ne menja je verovatno to što puno toga ne znamo o samom sistemu. Svi svakodnevno koristimo valute svojih vlada, ali većina nas ne razume kako sistem funkcioniše i šta on čini našim društvima.

Obrazovni sistem, mediji i finansijski stručnjaci neprestano nam govore da je monetarni sistem previše komplikovan da bi ga normalni ljudi razumeli. Mnogi od nas se zato i ne trude da pokušaju.

Još nekoliko razloga zašto ovaj sistem nastavlja da opstaje:

• Mnogo je ljudi koji imaju direktnu korist od štampanja novog novca.
• Ti ljudi ne žele nikakve promene i bore se da zadrže tu moć.
• Nacionalne valute su često pogodne
• Kreditne kartice, online bankarstvo i još mnogo toga čine upravljanje nacionalnim valutama i njihovo trošenje lakim i jednostavnim.
• Građani moraju da plaćaju porez u svojoj nacionalnoj valuti
• To stvara potražnju za tom valutom od svih građana, povećavajući njenu vrednost.
• Glavna međunarodna tržišta, poput nafte, denominirana su u dolarima.
• Nafta je potrebna svakoj zemlji na planeti, ali pošto mnogi ne mogu da je proizvode, moraju da je kupuju na međunarodnim berzama. Od 1970-ih na ovim berzama gotovo sva nafta se prodaje za dolare, što stvara potražnju za dolarima. Da bi se odmaknule od ovog sistema, zemlje bi trebale da pronađu novu valutu ili robu za trgovinu naftom, što zahteva vreme i rizike.
• Nije postojala dobra alternativa
• Uz globalnu ekonomiju u realnom vremenu, naš sistem digitalnog bankarstva koji koristi nacionalne valute je pogodan. Transakcija u tvrdom novcu poput zlata bila bi previše nezgrapna za današnji svet. Digitalna valuta pod nazivom Bitcoin, predstavljena 2009. godine, je rastuća alternativa koja nudi čvrst novac koji se kreće brzinom interneta.

Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?

Novac je alat koji olakšava razmenu dobara. Kao i svako drugo dobro, novac se pridržava zakona ponude i potražnje – povećanje potražnje povećaće njegovu vrednost, a povećanje ponude smanjiće njegovu vrednost.

Na ovaj način novac se ne razlikuje od kuće ili piletine. Međutim, velika prodajnost novca znači da je potražnja za njim uvek velika. Kao rezultat, novac mora biti težak za proizvodnju (a samim tim i ograničen u ponudi) ili će ga onaj ko ga može napraviti, stvoriti toliko, da vremenom više neće služiti kao zaliha vrednosti. Uskoro će izgubiti svoje funkcije kao sredstvo razmene i obračunske jedinice.

Najbolji novac u datoj ekonomiji je onaj koji se najslobodnije kreće – svi ga žele, lako je obaviti transakcije sa njim i koji sa vremenom dobro drži svoju vrednost. Nijedan novac nije savršen u svemu ovome, a neki ističu jednu funkciju novca na štetu drugih.

Iako se istorija ne ponavlja, ona se rimuje, a usponi i padovi monetarnih sistema imaju jasne ritmove. Uspon i pad monetarnog sistema često sledi opšti obrazac koji smo videli u pričama o agri perlama i Kejnslandu: pojavljuje se odredjenji oblik novca koji pomaže ljudima da efikasnije trguju i štede, ali na kraju gubi na vrednosti kada neko shvati kako da ga jeftino stvori u velikoj količini. Međutim, tokom dugog perioda vremena, monetarni sistemi su se poboljšali u sve tri funkcije novca.

Na primer, zlato je tokom vremena dobro služilo kao zaliha vrednosti. Međutim, naša međusobno povezana ekonomija ne bi mogla efikasno da funkcioniše ako bi trebalo da fizičko zlato zamenimo robom i uslugama. Mnogo je lakše kretati se na papirnom i digitalnom novcu, ali istorija nam govori da su vlade i bankari iskoristili ove oblike novca za krađu bogatstva putem inflacije.

Današnji globalni monetarni sistem je vrlo zgodan, a digitalna plaćanja i kreditne kartice olakšavaju trošenje novca. Ovo skriva stalnu inflaciju koja nagriza vrednost svake jedinice novca i dovodi do sve većeg jaza u bogatstvu.

Nadam se da je ovaj članak proširio vaše razumevanje novca i njegove uloge u društvu. Ovo je samo početak svega što treba istražiti o novcu: za kasnije su sačuvane teme o inflaciji, kamatnim stopama, pozajmljivanju, poslovnim ciklusima i još mnogo toga.

Efikasnija Ušteda Novca

Možda se pitate kako zaštititi svoju štednju kada svaki oblik često korišćenog novca i investicija pati od inflacije ponude – koja umanjuje vrednost i prenosi bogatstvo onima koji mogu da stvore novac ili investiciju. Možda se čini da se ništa na planeti danas ne može kvalifikovati kao ‘težak’ novac, ali dve stvari ipak ostaju: zlato i njegov noviji rođak Bitcoin. Obe ove stvari je neverovatno teško proizvesti, a jedna od njih se kreće brzinom interneta i može se čuvati u vašem mozgu.

Ako želite da saznate više o Bitcoin-u kao sredstvu za zaštitu vaše ušteđevine, pročitajte ovde. Ako ste već spremni za kupovinu Bitcoin-a, pogledajte moj vodič za kupovinu Bitcoin-a. Možete početi sa investiranjem sa samo 5 ili 10 €.

Zasluge

Hvala svima koji su pomogli u izradi i uređivanju ove serije o novcu: @ck_SNARKS, @CryptoRothbard, Neil Woodfine, Emil Sandstedt, Taylor Pearson, Parker Lewis, Jason Choi, mojoj porodici i mnogim drugima.

Hvala svima koji su ovo inspirisali i razvili ključne ideje koje su ovde primenjene: Friedrich Hayek, Carl Menger, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Saifedean Ammous, Dan Held, Pierre Rochard, Stephan Livera, Michael Goldstein, i mnogi drugi.

Molim vas da šerujete! Ako vam je ovaj članak otvorio oči o tome kako funkcioniše naš novac i finansijski sistem, kontaktirajte me ili ostavite komentar!

Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim pogled u ekonomiju i na to kako ona utiče na njihov život.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

2025-05-24 16:01:21

@matt_odell don't you even dare not ask about nostr!

— Kukks (Andrew Camilleri) (@MrKukks) May 18, 2021

Nostr first hit my radar spring 2021: created by fellow bitcoiner and friend, fiatjaf, and released to the world as free open source software. I was fortunate to be able to host a conversation with him on Citadel Dispatch in those early days, capturing that moment in history forever. Since then, the protocol has seen explosive viral organic growth as individuals around the world have contributed their time and energy to build out the protocol and the surrounding ecosystem due to the clear need for better communication tools.

nostr is to twitter as bitcoin is to paypal

As an intro to nostr, let us start with a metaphor:

twitter is paypal - a centralized platform plagued by censorship but has the benefit of established network effects

nostr is bitcoin - an open protocol that is censorship resistant and robust but requires an organic adoption phase

Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.
 - Anyone can run a relay.
 - Anyone can interact with the protocol.
 - Relays can choose which messages they want to relay.
 - Users are identified by a simple public private key pair that they can generate themselves.

Nostr is often compared to twitter since there are nostr clients that emulate twitter functionality and user interface but that is merely one application of the protocol. Nostr is so much more than a mere twitter competitor. Nostr clients and relays can transmit a wide variety of data and clients can choose how to display that information to users. The result is a revolution in communication with implications that are difficult for any of us to truly comprehend.

Similar to bitcoin, nostr is an open and permissionless protocol. No person, company, or government controls it. Anyone can iterate and build on top of nostr without permission. Together, bitcoin and nostr are incredibly complementary freedom tech tools: censorship resistant, permissionless, robust, and interoperable - money and speech protected by code and incentives, not laws.

As censorship throughout the world continues to escalate, freedom tech provides hope for individuals around the world who refuse to accept the status quo. This movement will succeed on the shoulders of those who choose to stand up and contribute. We will build our own path. A brighter path.

---

My Nostr Public Key: npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx

---

If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 82b30d30:40c6c003

2025-03-17 15:26:29

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yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 9223d2fa:b57e3de7

2025-05-25 10:59:25

480 steps

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

2025-05-24 15:55:20

It wasn’t so long ago that the mainstream conversation around population was exclusively focused on the dangers of overpopulation. The fatal flaws in the Malthusian theory had yet to be disproven clearly and obviously by observable demographic trends. That’s been gradually changing, and while it’s hardly a mainstream consensus, concerns about falling birthrates and the risk of population collapse have taken over the population conversion on the political right, and sometimes beyond.

There’s no questioning the data at this point. Fertility rates over most of the world have been in precipitous decline, and if the current trajectory continues, global population will peak very soon and fall rather dramatically. And even the falling population itself is much less of a threat than the aging population that will inevitably precede it. Having a large cohort of older and retired people and a small cohort of young workers is an existential threat to the modern welfare state, and to the entire credit-based fiat monetary system that supports it. But that’s a subject for another day.

There are a multitude of different theories that attempt to explain why this is happening. I’ll name some of the most common ones:

• Increased education and employment opportunities for women

• Urbanization

• Economic factors

• Access to contraception

• Changing social and cultural norms

• Delayed marriage

• Improvements in infant mortality rates

• Government policies

• Environmental concerns

• Pornography

• Feminism

• Endocrine disrupting chemicals

• Dating apps

Most rational thinkers agree there must be multiple factors playing a role. But the fact that the problem is so wide-spread, and populations that seem to be resisting the trend are so rare, shows that the strongest underlying factors are cross-culturally powerful and not easily resisted or reversed with marginal cultural differences and standard public policy efforts.

While populations that resist the trend are rare, they are not quite non-existent. A few groups stand out for their persistently high fertility rates. On a geographic basis, sub-Saharan Africa is the only major region still maintaining above-replacement fertility rates. For various reasons, I don’t think Africa is the most useful place to look for answers on what’s causing the decline elsewhere or how it could be reversed. One reason is that Africa seems to be following the global pattern, just with a lag. In another few decades the data may look very different, just like it does for South America today compared to 20 years ago.

In my opinion, a more useful place to look for data is in smaller population sub-groups within a geographic area that have fertility rates significantly higher than the general population levels. Rural populations in general have higher fertility rates than urban populations, but the difference isn’t really enough to consider it significant. The groups that fit this category well seem to be exclusively religious. These include certain Christian denominations in the traditional Anabaptist category including the Amish, Mennonites, and Hutterites, Muslims in some areas, and Jews, particularly the most orthodox sects. Mormons recently fell out of the high-fertility religious group category, which would also make for some interesting research.

It would be fascinating to compare these groups and see what they have in common outside just being religious in nature. I don’t have the knowledge to make that comparison. Instead, I’m going to focus on the group that’s often referenced and analyzed by people without much personal knowledge, the Amish.

I have read numerous articles and comments that reference the Amish to support this or that theory on the cause of falling fertility. One thing I notice is an obvious lack of understanding of the Amish culture, which leads to faulty arguments that don’t reflect reality. This isn’t surprising, given the insular and poorly-understood nature of the culture, the plethora of ridiculously incorrect “Amish” reality TV shows and pop culture myths, and the fact that the number of people with firsthand knowledge of Amish culture from an insider perspective who also write about demographic trends on any public platform is probably zero.

Well, was zero. I’m about to make that one.

My Qualifications

Since I’m claiming to have this knowledge, it’s only fair to give a little background as to how I got it. I choose to stay anonymous on the internet, and given that this is personal information that could make it significantly easier to dox me, I’ll be deliberately vague.

My parents were both born in Amish families. They didn’t stay, opting to leave the Amish church and culture before getting married and starting their family. My grandparents were all Amish, and all my cousins and most of my extended family remain Amish to this day. My parents didn’t move out of the Amish community, staying in the area and joining a conservative Mennonite church that was about the closest thing to being Amish without actually being Amish. The Mennonite community has a generally good relationship with and a lot of respect for the Amish community, given their deep similarities and shared history and cultural background.

I grew up interacting regularly with Amish relatives, neighbors and community members, speaking the Pennsylvania Dutch my parents taught us and used exclusively at home. I’m very certain that a real deep understanding of Amish culture is almost impossible without speaking their language, just like many other cultures around the world. The Amish speak English as their second language, but there are aspects of their culture that aren’t spoken about in English.

This lifelong proximity to and interaction with the Amish community has, I believe, given me some unique insights into the factors supporting their high fertility rates that no amount of academic research will ever uncover.

Who are the Amish?

First, some basics.

The Amish are a traditionalist Christian denomination. The way to understand the Amish is as a religious denomination first, and a culture second. Getting the two mixed up makes it impossible to understand why the Amish live the way they do.

Sure, their unique lifestyles makes them noteworthy as a group. But that lifestyle is based on and maintained by their religious beliefs and convictions.

Fundamentally, the Amish attempt to live out the Gospel as Jesus taught in the Sermon on the Mount. They believe their church has done so historically, and that the best way to make sure they keep doing so in the future is to view any changes to their traditional lifestyle with extreme skepticism and resistance.

The two primary doctrines that separate them from the mainstream Protestant Reformation, which is their group’s origin, are the doctrines of nonconformity and nonresistance. They apply the doctrine of nonconformity, the command to “be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God” in both a spiritual and a practical sense. They believe that Christians are to be radically different from non-Christians, both in their beliefs and attitudes, and in their lifestyle and appearance. And they apply the command to “resist not evil”, nonresistance, to mean that it’s a sin to use physical force or violence against another person for any reason whatsoever. They don’t make any exception for military service of any type, which they object to as a matter of conscience, or for self-defense, which they refuse to engage in even if it means death for themselves or their family.

The Amish do not practice infant baptism. Their young people must choose to be baptized and formally become members of the church, usually in their late teens or early twenties. As part of the baptism ceremony, they make a vow to remain faithful to God and the church until death. The Amish, as a church, interpret this vow to mean that the new church member will remain a member of the Amish church for life. Leaving the Amish church after making this vow and being baptized is viewed as breaking the vow, and is the justification for their practice of shunning, or the ban. Those who do so are cut off from contact with the community in various ways. Typically they won’t eat a meal with a shunned person, ride in a car a shunned person is driving, or do business with a shunned person. That includes immediate family. Failure to enforce this shunning against someone, even your own child, can result in running afoul of the church leadership and also being excommunicated and shunned.

This punishment, however, only applies to people who leave the church after baptism. Those young people who choose not to be baptized and leave the church instead are free to be treated just like any other non-Amish person, although their family essentially disown them and treat them like a shunned person anyway, if they’re especially strict and upset about the betrayal of Amish values.

Most Amish people don’t believe that the Amish are the only true church, or that only Amish people are true Christians. Most are accepting of other conservative Anabaptist denominations, and respect their values and practices as a different but valid way to be Christian. Church teaching strongly suggests that those who fall under the ban are living in sin and won’t make it to heaven. Most individuals, though, probably wouldn’t agree with that in every case if they were free to give their true opinion on the issue.

The Amish maintain a fertility rate of around 6 to 7 children per woman. Some recent research suggests this may be starting to fall somewhat, but the data isn’t extensive enough to make a solid judgement yet.

There are a wide variety of different “flavors” of Amish in different areas of the US, a fact they’re very aware of. The data strongly indicates that the most conservative and technologically primitive communities have slightly higher fertility rates and significantly higher retention rates of young people.

Why do the Amish Maintain High Fertility Rates?

Okay, enough background. Time to dive into the reasons I believe the Amish maintain their historically high fertility rate despite living in a developed, modern economy surrounded by people with dramatically sub-replacement fertility rates.

I thought long and hard about the best way to approach this. Going through a list of factors topically seemed like the obvious one. But the more I thought it through, the less I liked it. For one, how do you arrange the factors? Order of importance? How do you decide that? Also, the factors are so inter-related that they’ll be very tough to separate and understand individually. Finally, it seems dry and boring. Nobody needs that.

So I’m going to try something different. I’m going to approach it from a narrative angle. I’ll try to describe the life of a typical Amish person, from birth to death, in a chronological way. That’s the best approach to present it in a way that makes the culture relatable, while also tying the different factors together logically.

I’ll describe the experience for both men and women as best I can, and try to present the various factors encouraging high fertility as I see them at the appropriate part of the story.

This will likely be an article that gets revised later to address any questions that come up, so don’t consider it the final word on the subject.

Alright, time to get started.

Subscribed

First off, this might seem obvious, but the typical Amish baby is born into a large family. On average, they’ll have 5 or 6 siblings, and more is not at all uncommon. Families of 10 won’t raise an eyebrow, and 12-16 children aren’t unheard of, especially in the past when mortality was higher and second marriages were more common among younger widowers who went on to have children with their second wife. Humans are social creatures, and the environment and people we grow up surrounded by have a strong influence on our frame of reference. Studies have shown that women are very unlikely to have more children than their mother had. The number of siblings in your family, and in families you observe and interact with, doesn’t determine the number of children you will have, but it does strongly influence the number of children you feel is a “normal” amount. That makes it a kind of ratchet effect, where it’s very unlikely that a generation raised in homes with one or two children will go on to have larger families of their own collectively.

This cultural norm of large families establishes a kind of inertia that normalizes high fertility right from birth. Amish children grow up surrounded by siblings, observing, and as they get older, helping with the care and maintenance of a large family. All their relatives, cousins and extended family are also likely to belong to large families. The average Amish child grows up with dozens of first cousins, and sometimes hundreds of more distant cousins, many of whom they likely know well and socialize with regularly. This experience establishes a mental framework where a large family is assumed to be the default. And there is no stronger human tendency than the urge to fit in with the people around you.

Amish children grow up with strong gender norms taught from a very young age. The Amish culture follows strict and conservative gender roles. Boys and men do male things, girls and women do female things, and there is little effort or desire to create any overlapping space.

Boys grow up doing traditionally masculine things. They play outside, do chores on the farm, help their dad with his work, probably get a BB gun before age 10, go hunting and fishing, play sports, and generally prepare for a lifetime of physical labor and providing for a wife and family.

Girls grow up doing traditionally feminine things. They help care for younger siblings, help with housework, play with dolls, learn to cook and preserve food, learn to sew, and generally prepare for a lifetime of caring for and raising children and maintaining a large household.

It’s a common misconception that the Amish are mostly farmers who live off the land, subsistence style. That’s not at all accurate. While there are still Amish who make their living farming, at least in some areas, that has become the exception. The large scale of modern agriculture means it takes a lot of acres and a lot of machinery to run a profitable commercial farming operation. The Amish reject the use of most modern agricultural machinery, which makes them uncompetitive in commercial agriculture outside more niche markets like dairy, produce, or greenhouses. And the fact that they live in small geographic communities with large families means they quickly buy up all available farmland in an area until they price themselves out of the market. Prime farmland in heavy Amish farming communities like Lancaster, Pennsylvania routinely sells for over $25,000 per acre, which is more than a commercial crop farming operation might bring in over a lifetime.

So the Amish have moved away from a primarily agriculture based economy to various other occupations. In some areas they work in RV factories. Most work in trades, primarily construction. Many are masons, carpenters, cabinet builders, mechanics, welders, etc.

But they reject the ownership of cars, so they still use their characteristic horses and buggies for transportation. In reality, they use cars for most of their transportation needs. But they don’t own cars or have driver’s licenses, so they rely on “Amish taxi drivers” to chauffer them around. The men hire a driver to take them to and from work, if they work in construction or some other job outside the home. The women hire a driver take them to town for their shopping or for other errands. The exception is church. They’re still required to drive to church in a horse and buggy, so every family must keep a horse for that reason, as a bare minimum. In many cases that’s the only time they ever use a horse and buggy, and if it weren’t for that requirement they wouldn’t own one at all.

But that requirement means every Amish family must own enough land to keep a horse, which takes a few acres and a small barn at minimum. This forces them to live in rural areas and raise their families in a somewhat agricultural environment, even if their occupation wouldn’t require that at all. So there are always chores for the children, animals to care for, and space to play outside with their siblings.

Amish children grow up with very limited exposure to mainstream cultural pressures. Their mothers inevitably raise them at home until they start school. They don’t have TV or cell phones, so they aren’t exposed to any mainstream culture on a daily basis.

The Amish have their own schools, typically small one room schools within walking distance of all the families who attend. The teachers are often young single people, always Amish. They primarily teach basic academics: reading, writing, arithmetic, geography, history, etc. While the Amish speak both English and Pennsylvania Dutch, many Amish children are first exposed to English on a daily basis when they start school. School is taught in English, although there is limited teaching of the High German the Amish use in their church services.

Amish children attend school until 8th grade. The schools run the minimum number of days required by the state, usually 160. There is no higher education beyond grade 8. No Amish attend college.

Amish children are taught from little up that they are not like other people. The differences between their culture and mainstream culture are emphasized, and Amish culture is praised as the ideal, at a religious level. They're taught that the way to do what’s right is to do what the church asks, and those who don’t do what the church asks are in the wrong.

The Amish rate and describe everyone on a scale from “high” to “low”. A person who isn’t Amish, who isn’t a Christian, is a “high” person, or an “English” person. To go from being Amish to being “English” is the worst, most damning, failure imaginable. The Amish are “low” people. The more strict and traditional an Amish sect, the “lower” they are. Being “low” is seen as a virtue. Other conservative Christian denominations, particularly other Anabaptist groups, are also considered “low” people and generally viewed favorably, but they aren’t as “low” as the Amish.

Amish boys grow up expecting to start work full time at age 14, and to work at some type of trade or physical labor. There are no white-collar career tracks, essentially. Entrepreneurship is encouraged, and many young Amish men start their own construction crew or home business in their 20s or 30s after a few years of experience working for someone else. Often Amish boys start off working for and with their dad, in whatever trade or business he operates. But if they’re not interested in that particular occupation, they’re free to find another. Amish businesses and tradesmen are always willing to hire young Amish boys and train them in a craft. A good work ethic is considered a virtue, and Amish are known for their skilled craftsmanship and willingness to work harder than the competition. These traits are taught and encouraged from little on up.

Amish men as a whole do very well financially. For one, they start working and developing skills and work ethic a decade earlier than the typical college graduate. The trades pay well, and of course anyone could take advantage of that, but the mainstream narrative discourages men from pursuing a trade career by labeling it low status and keeping them in education until their prime years to gain a work ethic are past. It’s not uncommon for young Amish men just out of 8th grade to land a job on a carpentry crew for $25-30 an hour. With bonuses, some of them are bringing in $90k/year before age 20. Another advantage young Amish men have is lower expenses. They can certainly find places to spend their money, typically hobbies like hunting and fishing, but things like expensive designer clothes and accessories or overpriced car payments aren’t really an option. They also benefit from the Amish exemption to Social Security taxes. The Amish don’t pay into or collect Social Security. More on that later, but it helps immensely to keep more of your paycheck in your early prime working years.

Amish girls grow up expecting to get married at a young age and raise a large family as a traditional housewife. Amish girls aren’t encouraged to have a “career”, and the idea would be silly to them. They are expected to work, but the work is either helping their mom with the household, working on the family farm or business, or doing something like teaching school or working at an Amish farmer’s market to pass the time between leaving school and marriage. It’s never viewed as a permanent occupation, because marriage and motherhood is the default aspirational lifestyle. A common job for young Amish girls is working as a “maid” to help a new mother with housework at the end of pregnancy and for the first few months after childbirth. All new mothers can get this type of help if they want, and it will usually be a younger sister, cousin, or niece of appropriate age. Otherwise the community will find a suitable girl who’s available for the job. A “maid” will sometimes travel to a different Amish community for this reason, given how large extended families are and how frequently Amish families move across the country to a different community. This is often an opportunity for them to attract the attention of a young man outside their local community, and is one of the only ways for a long-distance relationship and marriage to begin.

Amish young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, with very few exceptions. They’re also typically expected to work for their dad in the family business for no pay, and to give any earnings they make at a day job outside the home to their parents. This is typically expected until age 21, or until they get married, whichever comes first. More recently, with the rising cost of land and housing, it’s becoming more common to make age 18 the cutoff. And when a young couple is engaged, the parents typically allow them to start saving their income for their future household. This practice helps parents offset some of the expenses of raising such large families, along with the fact that no money is spent on higher education. It also provides one strong incentive to marry as early as possible.

Amish culture revolves around family and the community. Extended families are large, and people are expected to know and interact with their family. Conversation with a stranger at a social event invariably starts by asking their name, then asking who their parents, grandparents, and other relatives are until some distant family connection or a mutual acquaintance is found. Since the Amish community has a small pool of family names, and tends to heavily favor certain Biblical first names, enough people end up with the same name to make things really confusing. People are often identified by two or three generations of their family, for example “Sam Yoder’s John’s Amos” for an Amos Yoder who’s father was John Yoder and grandfather Sam Yoder.

Social activities are either family events or church events, or both. Weddings and funerals are the main social functions other than church services, and people are expected to attend as many as possible among their family and extended family, regardless of the distance. Given the large family sizes, most Amish have dozens of first cousins and many more distant cousins. Weddings and funerals can be almost weekly events. These are church events as well, so much of the local Amish community will usually attend. It will be an all day event, with the women and girls preparing a lunch and dinner for everyone. After the meal, the women and girls will wash the dishes and clean up, while the men sit around and talk. No cell phones, remember. Talking is the main form of social interaction. Topics typically include work, family news, hunting and fishing stories (Amish men hunt and fish with the same enthusiasm typical American men watch sports), horses, and interesting or funny stories about family and friends. Those with a knack for entertaining oratory are well respected and appreciated in the Amish community.

Of course the women do their fair share of talking as well, in the kitchen while cleaning up after the meal, and later in the living room where they join the men after the domestic work is done. The main topics of conversation always revolve around family, immediate and extended. News travels through the Amish community faster than any social media platform, because nothing builds Amish female status more than being the first to call with the news that great uncle so-and-so was injured in a farming accident or nephew so-and-so has a new baby, along with all the pertinent details about the name, size, and health of the baby and how the mother is doing and how many grandchildren that makes in total for the lucky grandparents.

While the adults are talking, the children are free to play either inside or preferably outside. Trampolines, climbing trees, playing in the hayloft, tag, volleyball, and softball are favorite activities at various ages. The younger boys and girls typically play together, but as they get older the girls spend more time visiting while the boys prefer more structured sports. Softball is a game for boys, but volleyball is popular with mixed teams of boys and girls at any age.

Visiting relatives or other community families is also a popular social activity, especially on “in-between Sunday”. The Amish have church every other week, and the week without church is often an opportunity to visit another family. Invitations are not expected or required, and anyone stopping by will be expected to stay for dinner and into the evening. At these type of events, the older children are often expected to sit and visit with the adults. Sitting still and being quiet are mandatory skills, since church services are 2 hours or longer and held in barns or sheds without air conditioning filled with backless wooden benches. Self-discipline is not an optional virtue, because the alternative is physical discipline.

As Amish young people enter their mid teen years, they go from childhood to youth. At a certain age, usually around 15 or 16, they officially become youth and enter the stage everyone is familiar with, “rumspringa”. That’s a Pennsylvania Dutch word that translates to “running around”. The Amish use it more as a verb, but pop culture has adopted it as a noun based on some wildly inaccurate reality TV shows and depictions.

The reality is, rumspringa varies widely from community to community, mostly based on what the parents and church leaders tolerate. Remember that Amish church membership is a fully voluntary decision, and Amish young people are free to join or not, as they decide. Late teens is the typical age for that decision. In the meantime, they are free to make their own decisions, subject to their parents’ rules. Breaking the rules can mean that at some point, they won’t be welcome to live in their parents’ household any more. That’s a fairly strong deterrent to the most extreme infractions.

At this stage, young Amish men will be buying their own horse and buggy, and both boys and girls will be permitted to attend the Sunday night “singing”. This is a social activity held at someone's house on Sunday evening, involving all the youth in the community coming together for dinner, playing volleyball, and singing German hymns together. The purpose is to provide a somewhat controlled social environment for young men and women to interact and hopefully meet their future spouse. Dating couples can attend together, and dates are permitted after the formal activities, with the young men often driving their date home late at night before finally heading home themselves.

Depending on the tolerance of the community, the informal activities can be a bit more permissive than singing hymns and playing volleyball. Often the buggies will become a typical teenage party scene, with alcohol, smoking, a radio, illicit smartphones and DVD players, and some less-than-reserved interaction between boys and girls. The punishment for getting caught can be severe, but in many cases the adults tend to turn a blind eye to what’s happening, and let the young people do as they please.

A lot more could be said about the dynamics of this cultural practice, but specifics vary so much between communities that I don’t think there’s much value in doing so. The point I think is relevant to this discussion is the question of sex.

There’s no reason to go off into the weeds on how much, if any, sex occurs. Premarital sex is absolutely forbidden. Does it happen anyway? Humans being human, certainly. How much? Probably very little in most cases. Getting pregnant, or getting someone pregnant, is the one transgression with inevitable life-changing consequences. The “shotgun wedding” is alive and well among the Amish, and getting a girl pregnant means marrying her or being expelled from the Amish community permanently, no exceptions. Besides that, getting pregnant outside of marriage is the most disgraceful and shameful thing a girl could do. It happens very very rarely, put it that way.

So casual sex within the community is basically off the table. What about casual sex with “English” people? This is where the Amish cultural practices play a big role. The Amish dress very distinctly. They can’t go anywhere in their traditional clothes without being instantly recognized. They also don’t drive cars, so going somewhere means getting a ride with someone. And their parents will usually keep an eye on their plans and whereabouts. So let’s imagine how an Amish teenager might go about finding a casual sexual encounter.

First off, getting ahold of a cell phone would be essential. They need some way to communicate with the outside world, and coordinate with their “partner in crime.” A lot of Amish teenagers do this, often with the help of slightly older people who have left the Amish, but keep ties with the community, maybe an older sibling or cousin. These are often the same people who buy alcohol for Amish teens.

Then, they need to get some non-Amish clothes. Remember, every trip away from home will take a willing driver, a plausible excuse in a community where everyone knows everyone, and the guarantee of being immediately recognized if seen in public. And the Amish parents know who the “bad kids” are, the ones who left but are willing to help their younger relatives and friends break the rules. Getting caught hanging around with them will probably mean a lot less trust and a lot less freedom in the future.

For the girls, a change of “English” clothes and a new hairstyle will let them blend in quite well. Of course, they can’t be caught leaving or coming home in those clothes, or have the clothes found at home. Lots of logistical hurdles everywhere. For the boys, they have a very distinctive haircut. A new change of clothes won’t fix that. There’s really no way for them to hide the fact that they’re Amish, even if the accent and the lack of a driver’s license don’t give them away.

Assuming they manage all that, and sneak away from home undetected, how will they find someone to hook up with? They’re very insulated from popular culture, and probably not at all comfortable in typical social situations. For the girls, there’s the added risk that an accidental pregnancy, or even just getting caught, would ruin their reputation and any chance of marriage and a family in the Amish community. So they’re unlikely to even try, unless they’re already fully intending to leave the Amish for good. That only really happens if they have a guy ready to marry them outside the Amish community, for reasons I’ll get into more later. Briefly, the Amish culture and schooling leaves women poorly prepared to support themselves outside that culture.

For the boys, there’s the typical difficulty men face in finding casual sexual partners. Multiply that by the difficulty of not having a car or driver’s license, not being experienced in mainstream social norms, plus that obvious and undisguisable Amish haircut. And all that ignores the lifelong teaching that casual sex is sinful and wrong, and those who engage in it are going against the teachings of God and the church. The entire culture is specifically designed to discourage casual sex as strongly as possible, and it does an excellent job at that.

Why does that matter? Well, humans are all very much the same, with the same desires and instincts. And sex is one of the strongest of those desires. The Amish are certainly no different.

So the Amish religious practice and culture offers a very simple choice. You can choose sex outside of marriage, which will be difficult or impossible, occasional at best, and if you get caught will mean expulsion from the community your life is rooted in, and even if you don’t get caught will mean you’re committing a mortal sin that will keep you out of heaven if you don’t repent and change. Or, you can get married and have all the sex you want, and be respected and rewarded for it.

That’s really all it takes to sell the idea of marriage to most men.

When a couple does decide to get engaged, of course with permission from the girl’s father, the wedding happens within a reasonably short time, in acknowledgement of the temptation young people face in that situation.

So let’s take a little closer look at the gender differences between the choice to stay single or to marry. It’s helpful to lay out the different life paths available, and how they play out over time.

There are very few Amish who remain single throughout their life, and almost all of them are women. So let’s look at it through a man’s perspective first. What kind of life can a single Amish man expect?

First off, a lifetime of celibacy. There’s hardly any need to go further, that’s a deal breaker for most men. If they choose to stay single for some reason, most will leave the Amish completely rather than accept those terms.

So maybe it’s more useful to look at incentives for early marriage, which is the norm. I’m a strong believer that incentives create outcomes, so I’ll be taking a hard look at incentives throughout this article.

Young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, in most cases. Remember, no going off to college either. So from age 14 on, they’re stuck living with Mom and Dad, working full time, and not even keeping their own income. That gets old fast. Getting married, moving out, and starting a family looks better every day. Besides that, Amish women do a lot to improve the lives of their men. The Amish are well known for their delicious food. Well, that’s because the Amish women cook and bake. As a single guy, moving out of Mom’s house means not getting delicious home-cooked food every day. And they don’t have an iPhone to order DoorDash either, so it’s pizza delivery, hiring a driver to go to a restaurant, or whatever you can cook yourself. And Amish boys don’t grow up learning how to cook, that’s women’s work. Same with making clothes. Amish mothers and wives sew clothes for their families, since they’re forbidden to wear commercially available clothes in general. So a single guy is dependent on his mom for new clothes as well. Same with washing clothes. Most Amish have fairly modern clothes washing machines, although they don’t use dryers. But washing and folding clothes isn’t a job most boys grow up doing, so they’re pretty lost if they have to try it.

All in all, there aren’t a lot of upsides to staying single longer than absolutely necessary. There are plenty of benefits to marriage, though. For one, marriage is seen as a necessary step to full maturity as a man. It’s even expressed as a visible marker. Single young men typically stay clean-shaven. Once they get married, shaving is completely forbidden, and they are required to grow out a full beard. So the difference between married and single men is obvious at first glance, and is acknowledged as a marker of full maturity.

Then of course there’s the sexual access. No explanation needed.

Then there are all the benefits of an improved lifestyle a stay-at-home wife provides. That includes cooking, cleaning, washing clothes, caring for a garden, preserving food, helping with farm work or chores, and helping with his business. Many Amish wives are very involved in their husband’s career or business, whether that’s managing the bookkeeping, working in the greenhouses, or helping with daily chores on the farm. While most Amish communities use quite modern household appliances, powered with batteries, kerosene, or air pressure, the work of maintaining a household is still much more involved than for the typical American household. Especially when it comes to sewing, which very few American women do at all, but which took a large percentage of women’s time only a few generations ago. Among the Amish it still does.

I’m only focusing on the incentives for marriage right now, because that’s the first step. Of course, most married couples today don’t have 5-8 children, so there’s more to the story. But universal marriage, particularly early marriage, is an essential part of the puzzle.

Shifting focus to the women, here the picture is even more clear. Almost all lifelong single Amish people are women, and that’s not by choice. The Amish still maintain the “old maid” category that used to be part of mainstream culture. Single Amish women are almost invariably single because no man offered to marry them. Here’s why.

If single life is unappealing for Amish men, it’s positively bleak for women. Marriage and family life is the aspirational goal they’re taught from little up. And for good reason.

With their eighth-grade education, and without a driver’s license and car, their income earning potential is very limited. Most young women who aren’t busy on the farm or with the family business work as schoolteachers, housecleaners, babysitters, or cooks and servers at Amish restaurants or farmers’ markets. None of these jobs pay well. Enough to buy a few personal items, but not enough to buy a house or support even one person. And while it might be acceptable for a single Amish man to eventually buy a house and move out, at some point in his late 20s or early 30s, it’s really not acceptable at any age for an Amish old maid. Those old maids typically end up living with their parents, caring for them in old age, working the same type of jobs young girls do, and probably hoping that at some point an older widower with a family will show up and propose.

Marriage has massive lifestyle benefits for women, even more so than for men. Amish men typically do well financially, and often work in construction as well, or have friends and relatives who do. Amish houses are very nice and well constructed to say the least, and the wife gets the house she wants, the way she wants it. Being stingy with a house for your wife isn’t part of an Amish man’s mentality. Amish women are well rewarded for all their hard work keeping house, with a house they’ll be happy keeping. And of course a nice farm or at least some acreage, with space for a big garden, a barn for any animals, and space for greenhouses or whatever she needs for any home business ambitions she might have.

Along with that, Amish women have a lot of flexibility when it comes to spending money. Many Amish women handle most of the family finances. And the money her husband earns is family money, not his money. While the husband has final say in financial decisions, most Amish men don’t say no to their wives’ purchase requests often. Married Amish women have access to all the creature comforts the church allows to make their lives as pleasant as possible.

When it comes to status, the benefits are just as clear. Amish life revolves around family, and nothing is higher status than a thriving family of your own. The Amish version of posting exotic vacation pictures on Instagram is showing up to a social function with your new baby. It’s the automatic center of attention for weeks, until a newer baby show up in the community. And the default topic of conversation is always a woman’s children and their growth and development. Young girls grow up dreaming of the day they can join those conversations, and old maids are always outsiders in a certain sense, pitied by everyone else for their misfortune.

Being an old maid means being poor, low status, pitied by other women, and destined to live with your parents until they pass, with your only bitter-sweet consolation being the role of aunt to your dozens of nieces and nephews and maid to your sisters and sisters-in-law through their many pregnancies. Getting married means access to a man’s income, a nice new house just the way you want it, a farm, and an automatic status boost as a mother and eventually grandmother who always has lots to contribute to the conversation at social events.

As you can imagine, the incentives strongly favor marriage from both directions. Men benefit through improved lifestyle, status, and access to sex. Women benefit through improved lifestyle, economic opportunity, and status in the social hierarchy.

Given that the selection pool for potential partners is limited, mostly to the local Amish community, or occasionally another Amish community if there’s some interaction through family ties or social events, assortative mating is the norm. Young people can be choosy, sure. But they already know most of the people in their potential mating pool, and have probably known those people for most of their lives. They have a pretty good idea how desirable they are to potential partners, and the girls especially have to think long and hard about turning down a suitor. Men are always the initiators of a relationship, and the risk of turning down an eligible man and then never getting another offer, ending up as a dreaded old maid, is always lurking in the back of their minds.

Besides that, both men and women have multiple ways to improve their spouse’s life. Women are much more than just sexual objects. Their domestic role actually raises their husband’s standard of living significantly, in a way he can’t access as a single man. And men are all valuable to women, both for resources and for status as a wife and mother. Even a very average husband or wife is a massive lifestyle boost over remaining single.

By now it should be pretty clear why marriage is almost universal among the Amish, and marriage at what most would consider a young age (19-23) is more common than not. And I haven’t even mentioned any religious teaching, because frankly I don’t think that’s a major force on an individual level. The religious beliefs shape the social and material landscape, and that landscape provides the practical incentives that cause people to make the choices they do. The fact that an Amish interpretation of the Bible encourages marriage and children is one layer removed from the reasons individual 20-year-old Amish men and women choose to get married.

I pointed out earlier that getting married and having a high birthrate, or even getting married young and having a high birthrate, are not exactly the same thing. Plenty of married couples today have one, two, or even no children, even if they got married young enough to have ten if they chose to do so. So why are the Amish different?

There’s the too-obvious answer: they don’t allow the use of contraceptives. Occam’s razor and all, but it deserves a bit more explanation. After all, the Catholic Church doesn’t allow the use of contraceptives either, and look how well that’s working out for them. Of course the enforcement mechanism doesn’t have the teeth among Catholics that it has among the Amish, but that’s not the whole story. If they were motivated enough, there’d be a way to space the children out more, maybe end up without quite so many, without anyone knowing. That doesn’t happen, because the contraceptive ban is a dead letter when couples want to have as many children as possible, which the Amish typically do.

Again, I’ll go back to incentives. What are the incentives to have children specifically, as many as possible, and not just get married and “plan for a family one day”?

For one, status. For both men and women, a large family is a marker of high status. Parents are respected and honored for doing a good job of raising well-adjusted children.

Children are also less of a financial burden for the Amish. Their children are raised well, but not in a financially intensive way that’s become expected today. They don’t have to buy a new car or SUV to fit the family, they don’t buy every child a boatload of expensive electronic gadgets every birthday and Christmas, they don’t have to pay for frequent vacations or college tuition, and they don’t have to eat out or pay for takeout or pay for childcare or a house cleaner since the wife is handling all those domestic roles herself. And the Amish don’t practice helicopter parenting, so children are much more free to play and amuse themselves without constant supervision from their parents. They don’t have to be driven to 17 different weekly structured activities. They have a farm to play on and shelves full of books to read and some toys to play with if the weather is bad, and that’s about it. And of course as the family grows, the older siblings do a large percentage of the housework and help with the younger children.

The older teenagers that are working outside the home typically give their earnings to their parents, but this basically offsets the cost of raising them, so it isn’t really an incentive to have larger families, just the removal of a disincentive.

The strongest real incentive, other than increased status and cultural inertia, that I observe for large families is that the children are the parents’ retirement plan. The Amish don’t work at jobs that offer pensions or benefits. They are exempt from paying into, but also ineligible to receive, Social Security benefits. The Social Security exemption was granted on the basis that the Amish don’t need government payments to support them in old age, because the family and community will do that. And they do.

How does this work out in practice? First, the Amish don’t practice “retirement” the way most people think of it. They teach that work is honorable and every able-bodied man should work to support his family and to help those in need. So as long as a man is physically able to work, he’ll be employed and supporting himself and his wife. And Amish women move directly from the role of mother to the role of grandmother. It’s not at all uncommon, in fact, for a woman’s first grandchild to be born before her last child is born. So plenty of Amish children are an aunt or uncle at birth, and have a niece or nephew older than they are. Grandmothers are extremely involved in helping their daughters and daughters-in-law with childcare, so they don’t often have a big stretch of free time after their children grow up and move out. And besides that, there are still the significant household responsibilities to attend to.

As a couple gets older and perhaps less able to handle everything on their own, they often move to the home of one of their grown children. Typically not into the home directly, but into what’s called a “dody haus” (grandpa house) which might be a small detached house on the same property, or a separate wing of the larger house, like an in-law suite. Here they’re able to live independently, help care for the grandchildren next door, and still be nearby so their children and grandchildren can give any care they may need in old age. If the couple has an unmarried “old maid” daughter, she’ll typically still be living with them and will be the primary caregiver.

If someone doesn’t have children to care for them, the Amish community will find a way to care for them. Some more distant relative or maybe surviving siblings will step in to help. But the expectation and the rule is that your children and grandchildren will care for you after you’re no longer able to care for yourself. Finding yourself growing old without family is an unfortunate and unpleasant situation, regardless how much the community may try to fill that role. Just as throughout earlier stages of life, social functions and social status revolve around children and family, and anyone without them will be incomplete as a person, something of an inevitable outsider to the joys of life. The best insurance against a lonely and uncomfortable old age is a large family, among which there are certain to be sufficient resources to care for you. Many elderly Amish people die with well over a hundred grandchildren and great-grandchildren, and spend their later years constantly surrounded by children and young people who deeply appreciate and respect them. Being taught and shown that respect toward their own grandparents from a young age is a strong incentive to aspire to the same status one day.

I’m not sure exactly where this fits, but I should point out somewhere that the Amish have an absolutely zero tolerance policy toward divorce. There are no legitimate grounds for divorce whatsoever, and anyone who initiates a divorce will be excommunicated from the church and shunned. If an Amish person’s spouse initiates divorce proceedings, they won’t cooperate with those proceedings in any way. If the divorce happens through the legal system without their consent anyway, they can remain a church member in good standing only by staying celibate as long as their spouse remains alive. The only acceptable second marriage is in the case of the death of a spouse. In those cases, a quick remarriage is the rule among widows and widowers with young children, since raising a family is seen as a job for a married couple, not a single person.

It’s hard to say exactly how this stance against divorce influences marriage and fertility. But it certainly limits exposure to the idea of divorce as a “solution” to marriage difficulties, and incentivizes couples to work things out for their own life satisfaction. And it dramatically reduces the financial risks men face in the modern marriage system, where the potential to lose not only their family, but also a significant portion of their material wealth, raises strong disincentives to marriage. The physical realities of married life versus single life in a more low-tech environment probably discourage divorce, but the added threat of complete social and familial ostracization eliminate it almost entirely.

Conclusion

This article is my attempt to provide some insight into the Amish culture that might help us understand the factors causing their unusually high fertility rate. I’ve titled it as part one, because I plan to follow up with some of my personal opinions on how these insights relate to the broader society. I think a lot of the proposed causes of and solutions to the global demographic collapse are completely incorrect, and my opinion is based heavily on my observation of Amish culture. That will be the focus of part two of this article.

Feel free to comment and post questions. My biggest challenge in writing this article is the fact that I take my familiarity with Amish culture for granted to some degree, so I struggled to choose which points are relevant to understanding the culture for an outsider. I’m sure I skipped over plenty of important details that may leave readers feeling confused, so I’ll do my best to answer any questions you post, and update the article with pertinent information I missed.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 06639a38:655f8f71

2025-03-17 14:59:40

https://ccns.nostrver.se is a (Drupal powered) website that I started to build in January 2024 (source on Github and Gitlab). It's a fork of an earlier (abandoned) project https://cchs.social/.
Currently CCNS is a link aggregration website and for now it's only my who is using it to save and share Nostr related links. When you post a new link, you have the option to cross-post it as a Nostr note (example here).

Kind 39700

Last month Jurjen and Abir have started to work on a social bookmark client built with Nostr (inspired by Del.icio.us from the past). Earlier this month they changed to event kind 39700 for broadcasting the Nostr event with the bookmark / link data accross the network. They did this because Sep already created a social bookmark like client called Pinja when fiatjaf raised this idea.

With these developments to me it was very obvious to integrate the feature that new created CCNS links are now also published as kind 39700 events to the Nostr network. This means that links are now also distributed on multiple relays as kind 39700 events and are accessible in multiple clients (Yumyume and Pinja).

Here you can see the same data, from left to right:

• CCNS
• Pinja
• Yumyume
• njump

Structure

The current data structure for the 39700 kind looks as follow:

• "id": "event_id"
• "pubkey": "pubkey author"
• "created_at": unix_timestamp
• "kind": 39700
• "tags":
  • "description", "description text here"
  • "d", "unique-slug-value"
  • "t", "hashtag"
• "content": "https://book_mark_url"  
• "sig": "signature"

As there is no NIP (yet) for this event kind, I see some possible improvements:

• Use the bookmark URL as d tag so it can be used as a unique identifier for every client
• Use the content field for the description
• Use the a tag for an addressable event following NIP-01: ["a", "39700:pubkey_of_author:", recommended_relay_url_optional]

On short-term I don't have any plans to developer CCNS further, as most of my attention goes to the development of the Nostr-PHP library and Drupal related contribs using that library. That said, CCNS is a Drupal project but all the Nostr stuff is done client-side (Javascript) with NDK and Nostr-PHP is not used (maybe this will change in the future).

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 2cb8ae56:84d30cba

2025-03-06 07:40:38

どうも、Nostrまとめ(2024)ぶりですね。

記事として出すのはかなりお久しぶりかも、お名前変わりまして「フェゼレント」でございます。 意味としては以下の通りです

1.Fezer（フェザー）という英単語 2.ent（エント）という造語 2-1. netを崩した形、よくこれに打ち間違えます。 2-2. Entertainment（エンターテイメント）の略語、なんか娯楽とか話題を生み出せる人になりたいですね。

1と2をｶﾞｯﾀｲ!!!(トムブラウン風)しまして、フェゼレントです。

なんとググってみますと、Fezerent及びフェゼレントの検索結果が0。 これは...一種のチャンスでは！？と思って、使っています。

さて、そこで出てくるのが「薄味のキャルピス」と「IVstrook」の今後ですよね。 後者に至っては3年分の料金を払ってドメインまで取っているわけですし、前者はかなりネットとかラジオでも浸透しています。

というわけで、こんな風に置き換えます。

Nostr、YT、Discordはフェゼレント及びFezerentを使用します。 それ以外（ラジオを含む）では薄味のキャルピス、IVstrookを使用します。 そして、NHKなどAM波を使用して放送を行っているラジオ局用で使用していた「テックジャンカー」ですが、使用を停止します。 あんま浸透しなかったわけですからね

そんな感じでやっていきます 最後に、記事最後に使用する署名のような奴ですが、そちらは変更なく「IVstrook」単体で行います。

また、ニコニコ動画及び各種ポッドキャストサービスにて配信しておりました「Small Room Space」ですが、今後はzap.streamというNostrのシステムを使用したサービスを用い、番組名の変更は行わないものとします。 zap.streamでの配信開始は「4月7日」 ちょうど#1が公開されてから1年が経過した日です

重ねて、当名義を使用したニコニコ動画への投稿は「3月8日」をもって終了とし、zap.streamへ移行します。

以上、今年に入ってからまともにニコニコ動画で投稿できていませんでしたが、そのような運びとさせていただきます。

2025/03/06 IVstrook

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ ec42c765:328c0600

2025-02-05 23:45:09

test

test

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

2025-05-24 15:06:32

I was just updating our potential points, now that we know who won MVP, who made All NBA 1st team, and which teams are still alive for the title, and it turns out that no matter who wins the title @gnilma will win this contest.

Congratulations, @gnilma!

This is just further proof that @gnilma is our NBA Guru.

Let me know where you want your 7k in winnings sent.

https://stacker.news/items/988245

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ ec42c765:328c0600

2025-02-05 23:43:35

test

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 95cbd62b:a5270126

2025-05-24 14:06:33

Trong thời đại công nghệ số phát triển mạnh mẽ, nhu cầu tìm kiếm một nền tảng tích hợp đầy đủ tiện ích, an toàn và thân thiện với người dùng ngày càng tăng cao. OK22 đã chứng minh vị thế của mình không chỉ là một nền tảng giải trí trực tuyến, mà còn là một công cụ công nghệ thông minh phục vụ mọi nhu cầu trong đời sống số. Với thiết kế giao diện 100% tiếng Việt và khả năng tương thích trên mọi thiết bị từ máy tính đến điện thoại, OK22 mang đến cho người dùng trải nghiệm mượt mà, dễ sử dụng và hoàn toàn bảo mật. Được phát triển trên nền tảng công nghệ hiện đại, OK22 hỗ trợ người dùng quản lý thông tin cá nhân, thực hiện giao dịch nhanh chóng, lưu trữ dữ liệu an toàn và tiếp cận các tiện ích công nghệ tiên tiến một cách dễ dàng, kể cả với người mới sử dụng.

Một trong những điểm mạnh nổi bật của OK22 chính là khả năng tự động hóa trong xử lý tác vụ, giúp tiết kiệm thời gian và tối ưu hóa hiệu suất làm việc. Nền tảng được trang bị hệ thống bảo mật cao cấp, bảo vệ tối đa quyền riêng tư và tài sản số của người dùng. OK22 còn cung cấp hệ thống hỗ trợ trực tuyến 24/7, giúp người dùng giải quyết mọi vấn đề nhanh chóng mà không bị gián đoạn. Dù là một cá nhân đang tìm kiếm công cụ quản lý tài chính cá nhân, một doanh nghiệp nhỏ cần nền tảng để xử lý đơn hàng và thanh toán, hay một nhóm cộng đồng cần không gian kết nối số – OK22 đều có thể đáp ứng linh hoạt và hiệu quả. Không những vậy, nhờ tích hợp nhiều tính năng như thông báo tự động, đồng bộ dữ liệu đám mây, và tích hợp API mở, OK22 còn dễ dàng kết nối với các nền tảng khác trong hệ sinh thái số, giúp người dùng tạo nên một môi trường làm việc và sinh hoạt thông minh.

Không dừng lại ở đó, OK22 đang ngày càng mở rộng hợp tác với các đối tác lớn trong nhiều lĩnh vực như giáo dục trực tuyến, thương mại điện tử, chăm sóc sức khỏe và tài chính cá nhân. Nền tảng không ngừng cập nhật những công nghệ tiên tiến như AI, blockchain và dữ liệu lớn (Big Data) nhằm mang lại trải nghiệm người dùng tối ưu và đáp ứng nhu cầu ngày càng đa dạng của cộng đồng Việt. Với tốc độ xử lý nhanh, giao diện trực quan và độ tin cậy cao, OK22 không chỉ đơn thuần là một ứng dụng công nghệ – mà còn là người bạn đồng hành tin cậy trong hành trình số hóa của người Việt. Trong tương lai gần, OK22 hứa hẹn sẽ trở thành nền tảng công nghệ không thể thiếu trong mỗi gia đình, tổ chức và doanh nghiệp, đóng vai trò then chốt trong việc thúc đẩy chuyển đổi số toàn diện và phát triển bền vững.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ ec42c765:328c0600

2025-02-05 23:38:12

カスタム絵文字とは

任意のオリジナル画像を絵文字のように文中に挿入できる機能です。
また、リアクション（Twitterの いいね のような機能）にもカスタム絵文字を使えます。

カスタム絵文字の対応状況（2025/02/06）

カスタム絵文字を使うためにはカスタム絵文字に対応したクライアントを使う必要があります。

※表は一例です。クライアントは他にもたくさんあります。

使っているクライアントが対応していない場合は、クライアントを変更する、対応するまで待つ、開発者に要望を送る（または自分で実装する）などしましょう。

対応クライアント

• Amethyst
• FreeFrom
• nostter
• Rabbit
• Lumilumi
• Nos Haiku
• Snort
• noStrudel

ここではnostterを使って説明していきます。

準備

カスタム絵文字を使うための準備です。

• Nostrエクステンション（NIP-07）を導入する
• 使いたいカスタム絵文字をリストに登録する

Nostrエクステンション（NIP-07）を導入する

Nostrエクステンションは使いたいカスタム絵文字を登録する時に必要になります。

また、環境（パソコン、iPhone、androidなど）によって導入方法が違います。

Nostrエクステンションを導入する端末は、実際にNostrを閲覧する端末と違っても構いません（リスト登録はPC、Nostr閲覧はiPhoneなど）。

Nostrエクステンション（NIP-07）の導入方法は以下のページを参照してください。

ログイン拡張機能 (NIP-07)を使ってみよう | Welcome to Nostr! ～ Nostrをはじめよう！ ～

少し面倒ですが、これを導入しておくとNostr上の様々な場面で役立つのでより快適になります。

使いたいカスタム絵文字をリストに登録する

以下のサイトで行います。

emojito

右上のGet startedからNostrエクステンションでログインしてください。

例として以下のカスタム絵文字を導入してみます。

実際より絵文字が少なく表示されることがありますが、古い状態のデータを取得してしまっているためです。その場合はブラウザの更新ボタンを押してください。

generalJP | カスタム絵文字

• 右側のOptionsからBookmarkを選択

これでカスタム絵文字を使用するためのリストに登録できます。

カスタム絵文字を使用する

例としてブラウザから使えるクライアント nostter から使用してみます。

nostter

nostterにNostrエクステンションでログイン、もしくは秘密鍵を入れてログインしてください。

文章中に使用

1. 投稿ボタンを押して投稿ウィンドウを表示
2. 顔😀のボタンを押し、絵文字ウィンドウを表示
3. ＊タブを押し、カスタム絵文字一覧を表示
4. カスタム絵文字を選択
5. : 記号に挟まれたアルファベットのショートコードとして挿入される

この状態で投稿するとカスタム絵文字として表示されます。

カスタム絵文字対応クライアントを使っている他ユーザーにもカスタム絵文字として表示されます。

対応していないクライアントの場合、ショートコードのまま表示されます。

ショートコードを直接入力することでカスタム絵文字の候補が表示されるのでそこから選択することもできます。

リアクションに使用

1. 任意の投稿の顔😀のボタンを押し、絵文字ウィンドウを表示
2. ＊タブを押し、カスタム絵文字一覧を表示
3. カスタム絵文字を選択

カスタム絵文字リアクションを送ることができます。

カスタム絵文字を探す

先述したemojitoからカスタム絵文字を探せます。

例えば任意のユーザーのページ emojito ロクヨウ から探したり、 emojito Browse all からnostr全体で最近作成、更新された絵文字を見たりできます。

また、以下のリンクは日本語圏ユーザーが作ったカスタム絵文字を集めたリストです（2025/02/06）

※漏れがあるかもしれません

日本ユーザー作 カスタム絵文字

各絵文字セットにあるOpen in emojitoのリンクからemojitoに飛び、使用リストに追加できます。

---

以上です。

次：Nostrのカスタム絵文字の作り方

Yakihonneリンク Nostrのカスタム絵文字の作り方

Nostrリンク nostr:naddr1qqxnzdesxuunzv358ycrgveeqgswcsk8v4qck0deepdtluag3a9rh0jh2d0wh0w9g53qg8a9x2xqvqqrqsqqqa28r5psx3

---

仕様

NIP-30 Custom Emoji

NIP-30 カスタム絵文字（和訳）

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

2025-05-24 14:01:35

Influencers would have you believe there is an ongoing binance bank run but bitcoin wallet data says otherwise.

- binance wallets are near all time highs
- bitfinex wallets are also trending up
- gemini and coinbase are being hit with massive withdrawals though

You should not trust custodians, they can rug you without warning. It is incredibly important you learn how to hold bitcoin yourself, but also consider not blindly trusting influencers with a ref link to shill you.

---

If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ ec42c765:328c0600

2025-02-05 23:16:35

てすと

nostr:nevent1qqst3uqlls4yr9vys4dza2sgjle3ly37trck7jgdmtr23uuz52usjrqqqnjgr

nostr:nevent1qqsdvchy5d27zt3z05rr3q6vvmzgslslxwu0p4dfkvxwhmvxldn9djguvagp2

test

てｓ

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ c9badfea:610f861a

2025-05-24 12:55:17

Before you post a message or article online, let the LLM check if you are leaking any personal information using this prompt:

Analyze the following text to identify any Personally Identifiable Information (PII): <Your Message>

Replace <Your Message> with your text

If no PII is found, continue by modifying your message to detach it from your personality. You can use any of the following prompts (and further modify it if necessary).

Prompt № 1 - Reddit-Style

Convert the message into a casual, Reddit-style post without losing meaning. Split the message into shorter statements with the same overall meaning. Here is the message: <Your Message>

Prompt № 2 - Advanced Modifications

``` Apply the following modifications to the message: - Rewrite it in lowercase - Use "u" instead of "you" - Use "akchoaly" instead of "actually" - Use "hav" instead of "have" - Use "tgat" instead of "that" - Use comma instead of period - Use British English grammar

Here is the message: ```

Prompt № 3 - Neutral Tone

Rewrite the message to correct grammar errors, and ensure the tone is neutral and free of emotional language: <Your Message>

Prompt № 4 - Cross Translation Technique

Translate the message into Chinese, then translate the resulting Chinese text back into English. Provide only the final English translation. Here is the message: <Your Message>

Check the modified message and send it.

ℹ️ You can use dialects to obfuscate your language further. For example, if you are from the US, you can tell the LLM to use British grammar and vice versa.

⚠️ Always verify the results. Don't fully trust an LLM.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ ec42c765:328c0600

2025-02-05 22:05:55

カスタム絵文字とは

任意のオリジナル画像を絵文字のように文中に挿入できる機能です。
また、リアクション（Twitterの いいね のような機能）にもカスタム絵文字を使えます。

カスタム絵文字の対応状況（2025/02/06）

カスタム絵文字を使うためにはカスタム絵文字に対応したクライアントを使う必要があります。

※表は一例です。クライアントは他にもたくさんあります。

使っているクライアントが対応していない場合は、クライアントを変更する、対応するまで待つ、開発者に要望を送る（または自分で実装する）などしましょう。

対応クライアント

• Amethyst
• FreeFrom
• nostter
• Rabbit
• Lumilumi
• Nos Haiku
• Snort
• noStrudel

ここではnostterを使って説明していきます。

準備

カスタム絵文字を使うための準備です。

• Nostrエクステンション（NIP-07）を導入する
• 使いたいカスタム絵文字をリストに登録する

Nostrエクステンション（NIP-07）を導入する

Nostrエクステンションは使いたいカスタム絵文字を登録する時に必要になります。

また、環境（パソコン、iPhone、androidなど）によって導入方法が違います。

Nostrエクステンションを導入する端末は、実際にNostrを閲覧する端末と違っても構いません（リスト登録はPC、Nostr閲覧はiPhoneなど）。

Nostrエクステンション（NIP-07）の導入方法は以下のページを参照してください。

ログイン拡張機能 (NIP-07)を使ってみよう | Welcome to Nostr! ～ Nostrをはじめよう！ ～

少し面倒ですが、これを導入しておくとNostr上の様々な場面で役立つのでより快適になります。

使いたいカスタム絵文字をリストに登録する

以下のサイトで行います。

emojito

右上のGet startedからNostrエクステンションでログインしてください。

例として以下のカスタム絵文字を導入してみます。

実際より絵文字が少なく表示されることがありますが、古い状態のデータを取得してしまっているためです。その場合はブラウザの更新ボタンを押してください。

generalJP | カスタム絵文字

• 右側のOptionsからBookmarkを選択

これでカスタム絵文字を使用するためのリストに登録できます。

カスタム絵文字を使用する

例としてブラウザから使えるクライアント nostter から使用してみます。

nostter

nostterにNostrエクステンションでログイン、もしくは秘密鍵を入れてログインしてください。

文章中に使用

1. 投稿ボタンを押して投稿ウィンドウを表示
2. 顔😀のボタンを押し、絵文字ウィンドウを表示
3. ＊タブを押し、カスタム絵文字一覧を表示
4. カスタム絵文字を選択
5. : 記号に挟まれたアルファベットのショートコードとして挿入される

この状態で投稿するとカスタム絵文字として表示されます。

カスタム絵文字対応クライアントを使っている他ユーザーにもカスタム絵文字として表示されます。

対応していないクライアントの場合、ショートコードのまま表示されます。

ショートコードを直接入力することでカスタム絵文字の候補が表示されるのでそこから選択することもできます。

リアクションに使用

1. 任意の投稿の顔😀のボタンを押し、絵文字ウィンドウを表示
2. ＊タブを押し、カスタム絵文字一覧を表示
3. カスタム絵文字を選択

カスタム絵文字リアクションを送ることができます。

カスタム絵文字を探す

先述したemojitoからカスタム絵文字を探せます。

例えば任意のユーザーのページ emojito ロクヨウ から探したり、 emojito Browse all からnostr全体で最近作成、更新された絵文字を見たりできます。

また、以下のリンクは日本語圏ユーザーが作ったカスタム絵文字を集めたリストです（2025/02/06）

※漏れがあるかもしれません

日本ユーザー作 カスタム絵文字

各絵文字セットにあるOpen in emojitoのリンクからemojitoに飛び、使用リストに追加できます。

---

以上です。

次：Nostrのカスタム絵文字の作り方

Yakihonneリンク Nostrのカスタム絵文字の作り方

Nostrリンク nostr:naddr1qqxnzdesxuunzv358ycrgveeqgswcsk8v4qck0deepdtluag3a9rh0jh2d0wh0w9g53qg8a9x2xqvqqrqsqqqa28r5psx3

---

仕様

NIP-30 Custom Emoji

NIP-30 カスタム絵文字（和訳）

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ c1e9ab3a:9cb56b43

2025-05-18 04:14:48

Abstract

This document proposes a novel architecture that decouples the peer-to-peer (P2P) communication layer from the Bitcoin protocol and replaces or augments it with the Nostr protocol. The goal is to improve censorship resistance, performance, modularity, and maintainability by migrating transaction propagation and block distribution to the Nostr relay network.

Introduction

Bitcoin’s current architecture relies heavily on its P2P network to propagate transactions and blocks. While robust, it has limitations in terms of flexibility, scalability, and censorship resistance in certain environments. Nostr, a decentralized event-publishing protocol, offers a multi-star topology and a censorship-resistant infrastructure for message relay.

This proposal outlines how Bitcoin communication could be ported to Nostr while maintaining consensus and verification through standard Bitcoin clients.

Motivation

• Enhanced Censorship Resistance: Nostr’s architecture enables better relay redundancy and obfuscation of transaction origin.
• Simplified Lightweight Nodes: Removing the full P2P stack allows for lightweight nodes that only verify blockchain data and communicate over Nostr.
• Architectural Modularity: Clean separation between validation and communication enables easier auditing, upgrades, and parallel innovation.
• Faster Propagation: Nostr’s multi-star network may provide faster propagation of transactions and blocks compared to the mesh-like Bitcoin P2P network.

Architecture Overview

Components

1. Bitcoin Minimal Node (BMN):

   • Verifies blockchain and block validity.
   • Maintains UTXO set and handles mempool logic.
   • Connects to Nostr relays instead of P2P Bitcoin peers.

2. Bridge Node:

   • Bridges Bitcoin P2P traffic to and from Nostr relays.
   • Posts new transactions and blocks to Nostr.
   • Downloads mempool content and block headers from Nostr.

3. Nostr Relays:

   • Accept Bitcoin-specific event kinds (transactions and blocks).
   • Store mempool entries and block messages.
   • Optionally broadcast fee estimation summaries and tipsets.

Event Format

Proposed reserved Nostr kind numbers for Bitcoin content (NIP/BIP TBD):

| Nostr Kind | Purpose | |------------|------------------------| | 210000 | Bitcoin Transaction | | 210001 | Bitcoin Block Header | | 210002 | Bitcoin Block | | 210003 | Mempool Fee Estimates | | 210004 | Filter/UTXO summary |

Transaction Lifecycle

1. Wallet creates a Bitcoin transaction.
2. Wallet sends it to a set of configured Nostr relays.
3. Relays accept and cache the transaction (based on fee policies).
4. Mining nodes or bridge nodes fetch mempool contents from Nostr.
5. Once mined, a block is submitted over Nostr.
6. Nodes confirm inclusion and update their UTXO set.

Security Considerations

• Sybil Resistance: Consensus remains based on proof-of-work. The communication path (Nostr) is not involved in consensus.
• Relay Discoverability: Optionally bootstrap via DNS, Bitcoin P2P, or signed relay lists.
• Spam Protection: Relay-side policy, rate limiting, proof-of-work challenges, or Lightning payments.
• Block Authenticity: Nodes must verify all received blocks and reject invalid chains.

Compatibility and Migration

• Fully compatible with current Bitcoin consensus rules.
• Bridge nodes preserve interoperability with legacy full nodes.
• Nodes can run in hybrid mode, fetching from both P2P and Nostr.

Future Work

• Integration with watch-only wallets and SPV clients using verified headers via Nostr.
• Use of Nostr’s social graph for partial trust assumptions and relay reputation.
• Dynamic relay discovery using Nostr itself (relay list events).

Conclusion

This proposal lays out a new architecture for Bitcoin communication using Nostr to replace or augment the P2P network. This improves decentralization, censorship resistance, modularity, and speed, while preserving consensus integrity. It encourages innovation by enabling smaller, purpose-built Bitcoin nodes and offloading networking complexity.

---

This document may become both a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP-XXX) and a Nostr Improvement Proposal (NIP-XXX). Event kind range reserved: 210000–219999.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 8bf578f4:b6303c41

2025-05-24 12:19:50

test

https://nosto.re/6849b84caaa15bdc18ca2e1e1ee00e979c7ecf901787e09054b4bd0196b4ea27.jpg

test svg

https://r2a.primal.net/uploads2/5/b8/22/5b822faaf675e75f49c0129d1f0800762287d04fa3a7a7ce98dddfd017aaf823.svg

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 2f29aa33:38ac6f13

2025-05-17 12:59:01

The Myth and the Magic

Picture this: a group of investors, huddled around a glowing computer screen, nervously watching Bitcoin’s price. Suddenly, someone produces a stick-no ordinary stick, but a magical one. With a mischievous grin, they poke the Bitcoin. The price leaps upward. Cheers erupt. The legend of the Bitcoin stick is born.

But why does poking Bitcoin with a stick make the price go up? Why does it only work for a lucky few? And what does the data say about this mysterious phenomenon? Let’s dig in, laugh a little, and maybe learn the secret to market-moving magic.

The Statistical Side of Stick-Poking

Bitcoin’s Price: The Wild Ride

Bitcoin’s price is famous for its unpredictability. In the past year, it’s soared, dipped, and soared again, sometimes gaining more than 50% in just a few months. On a good day, billions of dollars flow through Bitcoin trades, and the price can jump thousands in a matter of hours. Clearly, something is making this happen-and it’s not just spreadsheets and financial news.

What Actually Moves the Price?

• Scarcity: Only 21 million Bitcoins will ever exist. When more people want in, the price jumps.

• Big News: Announcements, rumors, and meme-worthy moments can send the price flying.

• FOMO: When people see Bitcoin rising, they rush to buy, pushing it even higher.

• Liquidations: When traders betting against Bitcoin get squeezed, it triggers a chain reaction of buying.

But let’s be honest: none of this is as fun as poking Bitcoin with a stick.

---

The Magical Stick: Not Your Average Twig

Why Not Every Stick Works

You can’t just grab any old branch and expect Bitcoin to dance. The magical stick is a rare artifact, forged in the fires of internet memes and blessed by the spirit of Satoshi. Only a chosen few possess it-and when they poke, the market listens.

Signs You Have the Magical Stick

• When you poke, Bitcoin’s price immediately jumps a few percent.

• Your stick glows with meme energy and possibly sparkles with digital dust.

• You have a knack for timing your poke right after a big event, like a halving or a celebrity tweet.

• Your stick is rumored to have been whittled from the original blockchain itself.

Why Most Sticks Fail

• No Meme Power: If your stick isn’t funny, Bitcoin ignores you.

• Bad Timing: Poking during a bear market just annoys the blockchain.

• Not Enough Hype: If the bitcoin community isn’t watching, your poke is just a poke.

• Lack of Magic: Some sticks are just sticks. Sad, but true.

---

The Data: When the Stick Strikes

Let’s look at some numbers:

• In the last month, Bitcoin’s price jumped over 20% right after a flurry of memes and stick-poking jokes.

• Over the past year, every major price surge was accompanied by a wave of internet hype, stick memes, or wild speculation.

• In the past five years, Bitcoin’s biggest leaps always seemed to follow some kind of magical event-whether a halving, a viral tweet, or a mysterious poke.

Coincidence? Maybe. But the pattern is clear: the stick works-at least when it’s magical.

---

The Role of Memes, Magic, and Mayhem

Bitcoin’s price is like a cat: unpredictable, easily startled, and sometimes it just wants to be left alone. But when the right meme pops up, or the right stick pokes at just the right time, the price can leap in ways that defy logic.

The bitcoin community knows this. That’s why, when Bitcoin’s stuck in a rut, you’ll see a flood of stick memes, GIFs, and magical thinking. Sometimes, it actually works.

---

The Secret’s in the Stick (and the Laughs)

So, does poking Bitcoin with a stick really make the price go up? If your stick is magical-blessed by memes, timed perfectly, and watched by millions-absolutely. The statistics show that hype, humor, and a little bit of luck can move markets as much as any financial report.

Next time you see Bitcoin stalling, don’t just sit there. Grab your stick, channel your inner meme wizard, and give it a poke. Who knows? You might just be the next legend in the world of bitcoin magic.

And if your stick doesn’t work, don’t worry. Sometimes, the real magic is in the laughter along the way.

-aco

@block height: 897,104

---

---

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ a19caaa8:88985eaf

2025-05-20 10:34:53

• 拡張機能を使わない状態で使用した所感！

• makimono：全部できる。nip21にも対応してる。kind10002にデータが無いときは勝手にどっかに流される。kind5が流せない。nsec.appで署名できる。

• flycat：新規作成できるけど、流すだけで読み取りはしないっぽい。上書き（置き換え）はできるけど、編集はできない。すぐnos.lolに流そうとしてくる。kind5が流せない。他クライアント（lumilumiなど）から流したkind5は自動で反映されず、flycat内「設定」の「重複イベントの削除」をやれば反映される。nip21非対応。秘密鍵でログインできる。

• habla：秘密鍵ログインできない、nsec.appもなんか入れない（読み込みから進まない）。公開鍵ログインからの表示確認用。nip21には対応してる。

• yakihonnne：秘密鍵ログインできる。編集ができない（読み込みから進まない）。nip21は試してない。まだ全然見れてない。

• ほか：

| クライアント | 編集 | 秘密鍵ログイン | nip21対応 | kind5流せるか | その他 | | -------------- | -------------------- | ------- | ------- | --------- | ------------------------------------------- | | makimono | 新規作成、編集可 | 不可 | 対応 | 流せない | kind10002にデータが無いときは自動で他に流される、nsec.appで署名可能 | | flycat | 新規作成、上書き（置き換え）可 | 可 | 非対応 | 流せない | 送信先要確認、他クライアントから流したkind5は重複イベント削除で反映 | | habla | 未確認 | 不可 | 対応 | 未確認 | nsec.app読み込み不可、公開鍵ログインのみ、表示確認用？ | | yakihonnne | 編集不可（読み込みで止まる） | 可 | 未確認 | 未確認 | もっとちゃんと確認したい |

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 6b0a60cf:b952e7d4

2025-05-19 22:33:33

タイトルは釣りです。そんなこと微塵も思っていません。 本稿はアウトボックスモデルの実装に関してうだうだ考えるコーナーです。 ダムスに関して何か言いたいわけではないので先にタイトル回収しておきます。

• NIP-65を守る気なんかさらさら無いのにNIP-65に書いてあるkind:10002のReadリレーの意味を知っていながら全然違う使い方をしているのは一部の和製クライアントの方だよね
• NIP-65を守る気が無いならkind:10002を使うべきではなく、独自仕様でリレーを保存するべきだよね
• アウトボックスモデルを採用しているクライアントからすれば仕様と異なる実装をしてしまっているクライアントが迷惑だと思われても仕方ないよね
• と考えればダムスの方が潔いよね
• とはいえkind:3のcontentは空にしろって言われてんだからやっぱダムスはゴミだわ
• やるとしたらRabbitみたいにローカルに保存するか、別デバイス間で同期したいならkind:30078を使うべきだよね

アウトボックスモデルはなぜ人気がないのか

言ってることはとてもいいと思うんですよ。 欠点があるとすれば、

• 末端のユーザーからすればreadリレーとwriteリレーと書かれると直感的にイメージされるものとかけ離れている
• 正しく設定してもらうには相当の説明が必要
• フォローTLを表示しようとすれば非常にたくさんのリレーと接続することになり現実的ではない
• なるほど完璧な作戦っスねーっ 不可能だという点に目をつぶればよぉ～

余談ですが昔irisでログインした時に localhost のリレーに繋ごうとしてiris壊れたって思ったけど今思えばアウトボックスモデルを忠実に実装してたんじゃないかな…。

現実的に実装する方法は無いのか

これでReadすべきリレーをシミュレーションできる。 https://nikolat.github.io/nostr-relay-trend/ フォローイーのWriteリレーを全部購読しようとすると100個近いリレー数になるので現実的ではありません。 しかしフォローイーのWriteリレーのうち1個だけでよい、とする条件を仮に追加すると一気にハードルが下がります。私の場合はReadリレー含めて7個のリレーに収まりました。 Nos Haikuはとりあえずこの方針でいくことにしました。

今後どうしていきたいのか

エンドユーザーとしての自分の志向としては、自分が指定したリレーだけを購読してほしい、勝手に余計なリレーを読みに行かないでほしい、という気持ちがあり、現状の和製クライアントの仕様を気に入っています。 仮にNos Haikuでアウトボックスモデルを採用しつつ自分の決めたリレーに接続するハイブリッド実装を考えるとすれば、
あなたの購読するリレーはこれですよー - Read(inbox) Relays (あなたへのメンションが届くリレー) - wss://relay1.example.com/ - wss://relay2.example.com/ - wss://relay3.example.com/ - Followee's Write Relays (フォローイーが書き込んでいるリレー) - wss://relay4.example.com/ - wss://relay5.example.com/ - wss://relay6.example.com/

って出して、チェックボックス付けてON/OFFできるようにして最終的に購読するリレーをユーザーに決めてもらう感じかな……って漠然と考えています。よほど時間を持て余したときがあればやってみるかも。

あとリレーを数は仕方ないとしてリレーごとにフォローイーの投稿だけを取得するようにした方が理にかなってるよね。全部のリレーから全部のフォローイーの投稿を取得しようとしたら(実装はシンプルで楽だけど)通信量が大変だよね。 rx-nostr の Forward Strategy ってリレーごとにREQかえて一度に購読できるっけ？

常にひとつ以下の REQ サブスクリプションを保持します。

って書いてあるから無理なのかな？ あとReadリレーは純粋に自分へのメンション(pタグ付き)イベントのみを購読するようにした方がいい気がする。スパム対策としてかなり有効だと思うので。スパムはNIP-65に準拠したりはしていないでしょうし。 まぁ、NIP-65に準拠していないクライアントからのメンションは届かなくなってしまうわけですが。

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

2025-05-24 12:11:01

Since its creation, Bitcoin has marked a turning point in the digital money revolution—but its evolution didn’t stop at the original concept of decentralized transactions. Over the years, new technological solutions have been developed to expand its capabilities, making it more efficient and versatile. Among these innovations, smart contracts and the Lightning Network stand out, enabling increased functionality and scalability of the network, and ensuring a faster, cheaper, and more accessible system.

Smart contracts on Bitcoin

Smart contracts are programs that automatically execute certain actions when predefined conditions are met. Although the concept is more commonly associated with other networks, Bitcoin also supports smart contracts, especially through upgrades like Taproot.

• Smart contracts on Bitcoin enable functionalities such as:

01 - Conditional payments: Transactions that are only completed if certain rules are met, such as multi-signatures or specific time conditions.

02 - Advanced fund management: Use of multi-signature wallets, where different parties must approve a transaction before it is processed.

03 - Enhanced privacy: With the Taproot upgrade, smart contracts can be more efficient and indistinguishable from regular transactions, improving privacy across the network.

Although smart contracts on Bitcoin are simpler than those on other platforms, this simplicity is a strength—it preserves the network's security and robustness by avoiding complex vulnerabilities.

Lightning Network: scalability and instant transactions

One of the biggest challenges Bitcoin faces is scalability. Since the original network was designed to prioritize security and decentralization, transaction speed can be limited during periods of high demand. To address this issue, the Lightning Network was created—a second-layer solution that enables near-instant transactions with extremely low fees.

The Lightning Network works by creating payment channels between users, allowing them to conduct multiple transactions off-chain and recording only the final balance on the main Bitcoin blockchain or timechain. Key advantages include:

01 - Speed: Transactions are completed in milliseconds, making Bitcoin more suitable for daily payments.

02 - Low fees: Since transactions occur off-chain, fees are minimal, allowing for viable microtransactions.

03 - Network decongestion: By moving many transactions to the Lightning Network, Bitcoin’s main chain becomes more efficient and less congested.

In summary, Bitcoin continues to evolve technologically to meet the demands of a global financial system. Smart contracts increase its functionality, offering greater flexibility and security in transactions. The Lightning Network improves scalability, making Bitcoin faster and more practical for everyday use. With these innovations, Bitcoin remains at the forefront of the financial revolution, proving that despite its initial limitations, it continues to adapt and grow as a truly decentralized and global monetary system.

Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 5144fe88:9587d5af

2025-05-23 17:01:37

The recent anomalies in the financial market and the frequent occurrence of world trade wars and hot wars have caused the world's political and economic landscape to fluctuate violently. It always feels like the financial crisis is getting closer and closer.

This is a systematic analysis of the possibility of the current global financial crisis by Manus based on Ray Dalio's latest views, US and Japanese economic and financial data, Buffett's investment behavior, and historical financial crises.

Research shows that the current financial system has many preconditions for a crisis, especially debt levels, market valuations, and investor behavior, which show obvious crisis signals. The probability of a financial crisis in the short term (within 6-12 months) is 30%-40%,

in the medium term (within 1-2 years) is 50%-60%,

in the long term (within 2-3 years) is 60%-70%.

Japan's role as the world's largest holder of overseas assets and the largest creditor of the United States is particularly critical. The sharp appreciation of the yen may be a signal of the return of global safe-haven funds, which will become an important precursor to the outbreak of a financial crisis.

Potential conditions for triggering a financial crisis Conditions that have been met 1. High debt levels: The debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States and Japan has reached a record high. 2. Market overvaluation: The ratio of stock market to GDP hits a record high 3. Abnormal investor behavior: Buffett's cash holdings hit a record high, with net selling for 10 consecutive quarters 4. Monetary policy shift: Japan ends negative interest rates, and the Fed ends the rate hike cycle 5. Market concentration is too high: a few technology stocks dominate market performance

Potential trigger points 1. The Bank of Japan further tightens monetary policy, leading to a sharp appreciation of the yen and the return of overseas funds 2. The US debt crisis worsens, and the proportion of interest expenses continues to rise to unsustainable levels 3. The bursting of the technology bubble leads to a collapse in market confidence 4. The trade war further escalates, disrupting global supply chains and economic growth 5. Japan, as the largest creditor of the United States, reduces its holdings of US debt, causing US debt yields to soar

---

---

Analysis of the similarities and differences between the current economic environment and the historical financial crisis Debt level comparison Current debt situation • US government debt to GDP ratio: 124.0% (December 2024) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: 216.2% (December 2024), historical high 225.8% (March 2021) • US total debt: 36.21 trillion US dollars (May 2025) • Japanese debt/GDP ratio: more than 250%-263% (Japanese Prime Minister’s statement)

Before the 2008 financial crisis • US government debt to GDP ratio: about 64% (2007) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: about 175% (2007)

Before the Internet bubble in 2000 • US government debt to GDP ratio: about 55% (1999) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: about 130% (1999)

Key differences • The current US debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly twice that before the 2008 crisis • The current Japanese debt-to-GDP ratio is more than 1.2 times that before the 2008 crisis • Global debt levels are generally higher than historical pre-crisis levels • US interest payments are expected to devour 30% of fiscal revenue (Moody's warning)

Monetary policy and interest rate environment

Current situation • US 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.6% (May 2025) • Bank of Japan policy: end negative interest rates and start a rate hike cycle • Bank of Japan's holdings of government bonds: 52%, plans to reduce purchases to 3 trillion yen per month by January-March 2026 • Fed policy: end the rate hike cycle and prepare to cut interest rates

Before the 2008 financial crisis • US 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.5%-5% (2007) • Fed policy: continuous rate hikes from 2004 to 2006, and rate cuts began in 2007 • Bank of Japan policy: maintain ultra-low interest rates

Key differences • Current US interest rates are similar to those before the 2008 crisis, but debt levels are much higher than then • Japan is in the early stages of ending its loose monetary policy, unlike before historical crises • The size of global central bank balance sheets is far greater than at any time in history

Market valuations and investor behavior Current situation • The ratio of stock market value to the size of the US economy: a record high • Buffett's cash holdings: $347 billion (28% of assets), a record high • Market concentration: US stock growth mainly relies on a few technology giants • Investor sentiment: Technology stocks are enthusiastic, but institutional investors are beginning to be cautious

Before the 2008 financial crisis • Buffett's cash holdings: 25% of assets (2005) • Market concentration: Financial and real estate-related stocks performed strongly • Investor sentiment: The real estate market was overheated and subprime products were widely popular

Before the 2000 Internet bubble • Buffett's cash holdings: increased from 1% to 13% (1998) • Market concentration: Internet stocks were extremely highly valued • Investor sentiment: Tech stocks are in a frenzy

Key differences • Buffett's current cash holdings exceed any pre-crisis level in history • Market valuation indicators have reached a record high, exceeding the levels before the 2000 bubble and the 2008 crisis • The current market concentration is higher than any period in history, and a few technology stocks dominate market performance

Safe-haven fund flows and international relations Current situation • The status of the yen: As a safe-haven currency, the appreciation of the yen may indicate a rise in global risk aversion • Trade relations: The United States has imposed tariffs on Japan, which is expected to reduce Japan's GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points in fiscal 2025 • International debt: Japan is one of the largest creditors of the United States

Before historical crises • Before the 2008 crisis: International capital flows to US real estate and financial products • Before the 2000 bubble: International capital flows to US technology stocks

Key differences • Current trade frictions have intensified and the trend of globalization has weakened • Japan's role as the world's largest holder of overseas assets has become more prominent • International debt dependence is higher than any period in history

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

2025-05-24 12:06:36

Throughout history, money has always been under the control of central authorities, such as governments and banks. These intermediaries have set the rules of the financial system, controlled the issuance of currency, and overseen transactions. However, with the emergence of Bitcoin, a new paradigm began to take shape: decentralized money. This transformation represents a profound shift in how people store and transfer value, challenging the traditional financial model.

• The traditional model: centralized money

01 - Dependence on intermediaries: To carry out transactions, people rely on banks, governments, and other regulatory entities.

02 - Inflation and devaluation: Central banks can print money endlessly, often leading to a loss in purchasing power.

03 - Censorship and restrictions: Access to money can be denied for political, bureaucratic, or institutional reasons, limiting individuals’ financial freedom.

Despite being the dominant model for centuries, the centralized system has shown its vulnerabilities through numerous economic and political crises. It was in this context that Bitcoin emerged as an innovative alternative.

• The revolution of decentralized money

01 - Elimination of intermediaries: Transactions can be made directly between users, without the need for banks or financial companies.

02 - Limited and predictable supply: Bitcoin has a fixed cap of 21 million units, preventing the inflation caused by excessive money printing.

03 - Censorship resistance: No entity can block or prevent transactions, ensuring full financial freedom.

04 - Self-custody: Each user can hold their own funds without relying on a bank or any other institution.

This paradigm shift has a significant impact not only on the financial system but also on how people interact with money and protect their wealth.

Challenges and opposition to financial decentralization

The transition to a decentralized financial system faces several challenges, the main one being resistance from traditional institutions. Banks and governments see Bitcoin as a threat to their control over money and seek to regulate or limit its adoption.

There are also technical and educational barriers. Many people still do not fully understand how Bitcoin works, which can hinder its adoption. However, as more people become aware of the benefits of decentralized money, its use is likely to grow.

In summary, the shift from a centralized financial system to a decentralized one represents one of the most significant transformations of the digital era. Bitcoin leads this movement by offering a censorship-resistant, transparent, and accessible alternative. Despite opposition from the traditional system, the decentralization of money continues to gain momentum, providing greater autonomy and financial freedom to people around the world. This revolution is not just technological, but also social and economic—redefining the way the world understands and uses money.

Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

2025-05-23 13:46:21

You'd think I'd be most excited to talk about that awesome Pacers game, but, no. What I'm most excited about this week is that @grayruby wants to continue Beefing with Cowherd.

Still, I am excited to talk about Tyrese Haliburton becoming a legendary Knicks antagonist. Unfortunately, the Western Conference Finals are not as exciting. Also, why was the MVP announcement so dumb?

The T20k cricket contest is tightening up, as we head towards the finish. Can @Coinsreporter hold on to his vanishing lead?

@Carresan has launched Football Madness. Let's see if we understand whatever the hell this is any better than we did last week.

On this week's Blok'd Shots, we'll ridicule Canada for their disgraceful loss in the World Championships and talk about the very dominant American Florida Panthers, who are favorites to win the Stanley Cup.

Are the Colorado the worst team in MLB history?

The Tush Push has survived another season. Will the NFL eventually ban it or will teams adjust?

Plus, whatever else Stackers want to talk about.

https://stacker.news/items/987399

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ 63d59db8:be170f6f

2025-05-23 12:53:00

In a world overwhelmed by contradictions—climate change, inequality, political instability, and social disconnection—absurdity becomes an unavoidable lens through which to view the human condition. Inspired by Albert Camus' philosophy, this project explores the tension between life’s inherent meaninglessness and our persistent search for purpose.\ \ The individuals in these images embody a quiet defiance, navigating chaos with a sense of irony and authenticity. Through the act of revolt—against despair, against resignation—they find agency and resilience. These photographs invite reflection, not on solutions, but on our capacity to live meaningfully within absurdity.

Visit Katerina's website here.

Submit your work to the NOICE Visual Expression Awards for a chance to win a few thousand extra sats:

https://noicemagazine.com/SUBMISSIONS

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

2025-05-24 18:01:14

Vivek Ramaswamy’s company bets on distressed bitcoin claims as its Bitcoin treasury strategy moves forward.

Strive Enterprises, an asset management firm co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, is exploring the acquisition of distressed bitcoin claims, with particular interest in around 75,000 BTC tied to the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to build a Bitcoin treasury ahead of its planned merger with Asset Entities.

According to a document filed on May 20 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Strive has partnered with 117 Castell Advisory Group to “identify and evaluate” distressed Bitcoin claims with confirmed legal judgments. Among these are approximately 75,000 BTC connected to Mt. Gox, with an estimated market value of $8 billion at current prices.

Essentially, Strive aims to acquire rights to bitcoins currently tied up in legal disputes, which can be purchased at a discount by those willing to take on the risk and wait for eventual recovery.

In a post on X, Strive’s CFO, Ben Pham, stated:

“Strive intends to use all available mechanisms, including novel financial strategies not used by other Bitcoin treasury companies, to maximize its exposure to the asset.”

The company also plans to buy cash at a discount by merging with publicly traded companies holding more cash than their stock value, using the excess funds to purchase additional Bitcoin.

Mt. Gox, the exchange that collapsed in 2014, is currently in the process of repaying creditors, with a deadline set for October 31, 2025.

In its SEC filing, Strive declared:

“This strategy is intended to allow Strive the opportunity to purchase Bitcoin exposure at a discount to market price, enhancing Bitcoin per share and supporting its goal of outperforming Bitcoin over the long run.”

At the beginning of May, Strive announced its merger plan with Asset Entities, a deal that would create the first publicly listed asset management firm focused on Bitcoin. The resulting company aims to join the growing number of firms adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

The corporate treasury trend

Strive’s initiative to accumulate bitcoin mirrors that of other companies like Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet. On May 19, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, announced the purchase of an additional 7,390 BTC for $764.9 million, raising its total holdings to 576,230 BTC. On the same day, Metaplanet revealed it had acquired another 1,004 BTC, increasing its total to 7,800 BTC.

The post Bitcoin in Strive’s sights: 75,000 BTC from Mt. Gox among its targets appeared first on Atlas21.

yakihonne.com iris.to jumble.social Me