@ 000002de:c05780a7

I'm mostly curious about how Tapper can do this with a straight face.

https://stacker.news/items/986926

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

What is KYC/AML?

• The acronym stands for Know Your Customer / Anti Money Laundering.
• In practice it stands for the surveillance measures companies are often compelled to take against their customers by financial regulators.
• Methods differ but often include: Passport Scans, Driver License Uploads, Social Security Numbers, Home Address, Phone Number, Face Scans.
• Bitcoin companies will also store all withdrawal and deposit addresses which can then be used to track bitcoin transactions on the bitcoin block chain.
• This data is then stored and shared. Regulations often require companies to hold this information for a set number of years but in practice users should assume this data will be held indefinitely. Data is often stored insecurely, which results in frequent hacks and leaks.  
• KYC/AML data collection puts all honest users at risk of theft, extortion, and persecution while being ineffective at stopping crime. Criminals often use counterfeit, bought, or stolen credentials to get around the requirements. Criminals can buy "verified" accounts for as little as $200. Furthermore, billions of people are excluded from financial services as a result of KYC/AML requirements.

During the early days of bitcoin most services did not require this sensitive user data, but as adoption increased so did the surveillance measures. At this point, most large bitcoin companies are collecting and storing massive lists of bitcoiners, our sensitive personal information, and our transaction history.

Lists of Bitcoiners

KYC/AML policies are a direct attack on bitcoiners. Lists of bitcoiners and our transaction history will inevitably be used against us.

Once you are on a list with your bitcoin transaction history that record will always exist. Generally speaking, tracking bitcoin is based on probability analysis of ownership change. Surveillance firms use various heuristics to determine if you are sending bitcoin to yourself or if ownership is actually changing hands.  You can obtain better privacy going forward by using collaborative transactions such as coinjoin to break this probability analysis.

Fortunately, you can buy bitcoin without providing intimate personal information. Tools such as peach, hodlhodl, robosats, azteco and bisq help; mining is also a solid option: anyone can plug a miner into power and internet and earn bitcoin by mining privately.

You can also earn bitcoin by providing goods and/or services that can be purchased with bitcoin. Long term, circular economies will mitigate this threat: most people will not buy bitcoin - they will earn bitcoin - most people will not sell bitcoin - they will spend bitcoin.

There is no such thing as KYC or No KYC bitcoin, there are bitcoiners on lists and those that are not on lists.

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The former seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.

The latter's future remains to be seen. Dependence on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.

— ODELL (@ODELL) October 27, 2022

The Basics

• Lightning is a protocol that enables cheap and fast native bitcoin transactions.
• At the core of the protocol is the ability for bitcoin users to create a payment channel with another user.
• These payment channels enable users to make many bitcoin transactions between each other with only two on-chain bitcoin transactions: the channel open transaction and the channel close transaction.
• Essentially lightning is a protocol for interoperable batched bitcoin transactions.
• It is expected that on chain bitcoin transaction fees will increase with adoption and the ability to easily batch transactions will save users significant money.
• As these lightning transactions are processed, liquidity flows from one side of a channel to the other side, on chain transactions are signed by both parties but not broadcasted to update this balance.
• Lightning is designed to be trust minimized, either party in a payment channel can close the channel at any time and their bitcoin will be settled on chain without trusting the other party.

There is no 'Lightning Network'

• Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise.
• There are many lightning channels between many different users and funds can flow across interconnected channels as long as there is a route through peers.
• If a lightning transaction requires multiple hops it will flow through multiple interconnected channels, adjusting the balance of all channels along the route, and paying lightning transaction fees that are set by each node on the route.

Example: You have a channel with Bob. Bob has a channel with Charlie. You can pay Charlie through your channel with Bob and Bob's channel with User C.

• As a result, it is not guaranteed that every lightning user can pay every other lightning user, they must have a route of interconnected channels between sender and receiver.

Lightning in Practice

• Lightning has already found product market fit and usage as an interconnected payment protocol between large professional custodians.
• They are able to easily manage channels and liquidity between each other without trust using this interoperable protocol.
• Lightning payments between large custodians are fast and easy. End users do not have to run their own node or manage their channels and liquidity. These payments rarely fail due to professional management of custodial nodes.
• The tradeoff is one inherent to custodians and other trusted third parties. Custodial wallets can steal funds and compromise user privacy.

Sovereign Lightning

• Trusted third parties are security holes.
• Users must run their own node and manage their own channels in order to use lightning without trusting a third party. This remains the single largest friction point for sovereign lightning usage: the mental burden of actively running a lightning node and associated liquidity management.
• Bitcoin development prioritizes node accessibility so cost to self host your own node is low but if a node is run at home or office, Tor or a VPN is recommended to mask your IP address: otherwise it is visible to the entire network and represents a privacy risk.
• This privacy risk is heightened due to the potential for certain governments to go after sovereign lightning users and compel them to shutdown their nodes. If their IP Address is exposed they are easier to target.
• Fortunately the tools to run and manage nodes continue to get easier but it is important to understand that this will always be a friction point when compared to custodial services.

The Potential Fracture of Lightning

• Any lightning user can choose which users are allowed to open channels with them.
• One potential is that professional custodians only peer with other professional custodians.
• We already see nodes like those run by CashApp only have channels open with other regulated counterparties. This could be due to performance goals, liability reduction, or regulatory pressure.

• Fortunately some of their peers are connected to non-regulated parties so payments to and from sovereign lightning users are still successfully processed by CashApp but this may not always be the case going forward.

Summary

• Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise. There is no singular 'Lightning Network' but rather many payment channels between distinct peers, some connected with each other and some not.
• Lightning as an interoperable payment protocol between professional custodians seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.
• Lightning as a robust sovereign payment protocol has yet to be battle tested. Heavy reliance on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, the friction of active liquidity management, significant on chain fee burden for small amounts, interactivity constraints on mobile, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.

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If you have never used lightning before, use this guide to get started on your phone.

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Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.

— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022

The four main banks of bitcoin and “crypto” are Signature, Prime Trust, Silvergate, and Silicon Valley Bank. Prime Trust does not custody funds themselves but rather maintains deposit accounts at BMO Harris Bank, Cross River, Lexicon Bank, MVB Bank, and Signature Bank. Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank have already stopped withdrawals. More banks will go down before the chaos stops. None of them have sufficient reserves to meet withdrawals.

Bitcoin gives us all the ability to opt out of a system that has massive layers of counterparty risk built in, years of cheap money and broken incentives have layered risk on top of risk throughout the entire global economy. If you thought the FTX bank run was painful to watch, I have bad news for you: every major bank in the world is fractional reserve. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk, as global market chaos unwinds this will become much more obvious.

The rules of bitcoin are extremely hard to change by design. Anyone can access the network directly without a trusted third party by using their own node. Owning more bitcoin does not give you more control over the network with all participants on equal footing.

Bitcoin is:
- money that is not controlled by a company or government
- money that can be spent or saved without permission
- money that is provably scarce and should increase in purchasing power with adoption

Bitcoin is money without trust. Whether you are a nation state, corporation, or an individual, you can use bitcoin to spend or save without permission. Social media will accelerate the already deteriorating trust in our institutions and as this trust continues to crumble the value of trust minimized money will become obvious. As adoption increases so should the purchasing power of bitcoin.

A quick note on "stablecoins," such as USDC - it is important to remember that they rely on trusted custodians. They have the same risk as funds held directly in bank accounts with additional counterparty risk on top. The trusted custodians can be pressured by gov, exit scam, or caught up in fraud. Funds can and will be frozen at will. This is a distinctly different trust model than bitcoin, which is a native bearer token that does not rely on any centralized entity or custodian.

Most bitcoin exchanges have exposure to these failing banks. Expect more chaos and confusion as this all unwinds. Withdraw any bitcoin to your own wallet ASAP.

Simple Self Custody Guide: https://werunbtc.com/muun
More Secure Cold Storage Guide: https://werunbtc.com/coldcard

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The newly proposed RESTRICT ACT - is being advertised as a TikTok Ban, but is much broader than that, carries a $1M Fine and up to 20 years in prison️! It is unconstitutional and would create massive legal restrictions on the open source movement and free speech throughout the internet.

The Bill was proposed by: Senator Warner, Senator Thune, Senator Baldwin, Senator Fischer, Senator Manchin, Senator Moran, Senator Bennet, Senator Sullivan, Senator Gillibrand, Senator Collins, Senator Heinrich, and Senator Romney. It has broad support across Senators of both parties.

Corrupt politicians will not protect us. They are part of the problem. We must build, support, and learn how to use censorship resistant tools in order to defend our natural rights.

The RESTRICT Act, introduced by Senators Warner and Thune, aims to block or disrupt transactions and financial holdings involving foreign adversaries that pose risks to national security. Although the primary targets of this legislation are companies like Tik-Tok, the language of the bill could potentially be used to block or disrupt cryptocurrency transactions and, in extreme cases, block Americans’ access to open source tools or protocols like Bitcoin.

The Act creates a redundant regime paralleling OFAC without clear justification, it significantly limits the ability for injured parties to challenge actions raising due process concerns, and unlike OFAC it lacks any carve-out for protected speech. COINCENTER ON THE RESTRICT ACT

Full Text of Bill

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@matt_odell don't you even dare not ask about nostr!

— Kukks (Andrew Camilleri) (@MrKukks) May 18, 2021

Nostr first hit my radar spring 2021: created by fellow bitcoiner and friend, fiatjaf, and released to the world as free open source software. I was fortunate to be able to host a conversation with him on Citadel Dispatch in those early days, capturing that moment in history forever. Since then, the protocol has seen explosive viral organic growth as individuals around the world have contributed their time and energy to build out the protocol and the surrounding ecosystem due to the clear need for better communication tools.

nostr is to twitter as bitcoin is to paypal

As an intro to nostr, let us start with a metaphor:

twitter is paypal - a centralized platform plagued by censorship but has the benefit of established network effects

nostr is bitcoin - an open protocol that is censorship resistant and robust but requires an organic adoption phase

Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.
 - Anyone can run a relay.
 - Anyone can interact with the protocol.
 - Relays can choose which messages they want to relay.
 - Users are identified by a simple public private key pair that they can generate themselves.

Nostr is often compared to twitter since there are nostr clients that emulate twitter functionality and user interface but that is merely one application of the protocol. Nostr is so much more than a mere twitter competitor. Nostr clients and relays can transmit a wide variety of data and clients can choose how to display that information to users. The result is a revolution in communication with implications that are difficult for any of us to truly comprehend.

Similar to bitcoin, nostr is an open and permissionless protocol. No person, company, or government controls it. Anyone can iterate and build on top of nostr without permission. Together, bitcoin and nostr are incredibly complementary freedom tech tools: censorship resistant, permissionless, robust, and interoperable - money and speech protected by code and incentives, not laws.

As censorship throughout the world continues to escalate, freedom tech provides hope for individuals around the world who refuse to accept the status quo. This movement will succeed on the shoulders of those who choose to stand up and contribute. We will build our own path. A brighter path.

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My Nostr Public Key: npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx

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@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

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"Privacy is necessary for an open society in the electronic age. Privacy is not secrecy.  A private matter is something one doesn't want the whole world to know, but a secret matter is something one doesn't want anybody to know. Privacy is the power to selectively reveal oneself to the world." - Eric Hughes, A Cypherpunk's Manifesto, 1993

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Privacy is essential to freedom. Without privacy, individuals are unable to make choices free from surveillance and control. Lack of privacy leads to loss of autonomy. When individuals are constantly monitored it limits our ability to express ourselves and take risks. Any decisions we make can result in negative repercussions from those who surveil us. Without the freedom to make choices, individuals cannot truly be free.

Freedom is essential to acquiring and preserving wealth. When individuals are not free to make choices, restrictions and limitations prevent us from economic opportunities. If we are somehow able to acquire wealth in such an environment, lack of freedom can result in direct asset seizure by governments or other malicious entities. At scale, when freedom is compromised, it leads to widespread economic stagnation and poverty. Protecting freedom is essential to economic prosperity.

The connection between privacy, freedom, and wealth is critical. Without privacy, individuals lose the freedom to make choices free from surveillance and control. While lack of freedom prevents individuals from pursuing economic opportunities and makes wealth preservation nearly impossible. No Privacy? No Freedom. No Freedom? No Wealth.

Rights are not granted. They are taken and defended. Rights are often misunderstood as permission to do something by those holding power. However, if someone can give you something, they can inherently take it from you at will. People throughout history have necessarily fought for basic rights, including privacy and freedom. These rights were not given by those in power, but rather demanded and won through struggle. Even after these rights are won, they must be continually defended to ensure that they are not taken away. Rights are not granted - they are earned through struggle and defended through sacrifice.

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People forget Bear Stearns failed March 2008 - months of denial followed before the public realized how bad the situation was under the surface.

Similar happening now but much larger scale. They did not fix fundamental issues after 2008 - everything is more fragile.

The Fed preemptively bailed out every bank with their BTFP program and First Republic Bank still failed. The second largest bank failure in history.

There will be more failures. There will be more bailouts. Depositors will be "protected" by socializing losses across everyone.

Our President and mainstream financial pundits are currently pretending the banking crisis is over while most banks remain insolvent. There are going to be many more bank failures as this ponzi system unravels.

Unlike 2008, we have the ability to opt out of these broken and corrupt institutions by using bitcoin. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk - you do not have to trust a bank or other centralized entity to hold it for you. Bitcoin is also incredibly difficult to change by design since it is not controlled by an individual, company, or government - the supply of dollars will inevitably be inflated to bailout these failing banks but bitcoin supply will remain unchanged. I do not need to convince you that bitcoin provides value - these next few years will convince millions.

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Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.

— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022

Good morning.

It looks like PacWest will fail today. It will be both the fifth largest bank failure in US history and the sixth major bank to fail this year. It will likely get purchased by one of the big four banks in a government orchestrated sale.  

March 8th - Silvergate Bank
March 10th - Silicon Valley Bank
March 12th - Signature Bank
March 19th - Credit Suisse
May 1st - First Republic Bank
May 4th - PacWest Bank?

PacWest is the first of many small regional banks that will go under this year. Most will get bought by the big four in gov orchestrated sales. This has been the playbook since 2008. Follow the incentives. Massive consolidation across the banking industry. PacWest gonna be a drop in the bucket compared to what comes next.

First, a hastened government led bank consolidation, then a public/private partnership with the remaining large banks to launch a surveilled and controlled digital currency network. We will be told it is more convenient. We will be told it is safer. We will be told it will prevent future bank runs. All of that is marketing bullshit. The goal is greater control of money. The ability to choose how we spend it and how we save it. If you control the money - you control the people that use it.

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@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

There must be a limit to how much data is transferred across the bitcoin network in order to keep the ability to run and use your own node accessible. A node is required to interact with the global bitcoin network - if you do not use your own node then you must trust someone else's node. If nodes become inaccessible to run then the network will centralize around the remaining entities that operate them - threatening the censorship resistance at the core of bitcoin's value prop. The bitcoin protocol uses three main mechanisms to keep node operation costs low - a fixed limit on the amount of data in each block, an automatic difficulty adjustment that regulates how many blocks are produced based on current mining hash rate, and a robust dynamic transaction fee market.

Bitcoin transaction fees limit network abuse by making usage expensive. There is a cost to every transaction, set by a dynamic free market based on demand for scarce block space. It is an incredibly robust way to prevent spam without relying on centralized entities that can be corrupted or pressured.

After the 2017 bitcoin fee spike we had six years of relative quiet to build tools that would be robust in a sustained high fee market. Fortunately our tools are significantly better now but many still need improvement. Most of the pain points we see today will be mitigated.

The reality is we were never going to be fully prepared - pressure is needed to show the pain points and provide strong incentives to mitigate them.

It will be incredibly interesting to watch how projects adapt under pressure. Optimistic we see great innovation here.

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_If you are willing to wait for your transaction to confirm you can pay significantly lower fees. Learn best practices for reducing your fee burden here.

My guide for running and using your own bitcoin node can be found here._

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I often hear "bitcoin doesn't interest me, I'm not a finance person."

Ironically, the beauty of sound money is you don't have to be. In the current system you're expected to manage a diversified investment portfolio or pay someone to do it. Bitcoin will make that optional.

— ODELL (@ODELL) September 16, 2018

At first glance bitcoin often appears overwhelming to newcomers. It is incredibly easy to get bogged down in the details of how it works or different ways to use it. Enthusiasts, such as myself, often enjoy going down the deep rabbit hole of the potential of bitcoin, possible pitfalls and theoretical scenarios, power user techniques, and the developer ecosystem. If your first touch point with bitcoin is that type of content then it is only natural to be overwhelmed. While it is important that we have a thriving community of bitcoiners dedicated to these complicated tasks - the true beauty of bitcoin lies in its simplicity. Bitcoin is simply better money. It is the best money we have ever had.

Life is complicated. Life is hard. Life is full of responsibility and surprises. Bitcoin allows us to focus on our lives while relying on a money that is simple. A money that is not controlled by any individual, company, or government. A money that cannot be easily seized or blocked. A money that cannot be devalued at will by a handful of corrupt bureaucrat who live hundreds of miles from us. A money that can be easily saved and should increase in purchasing power over time without having to learn how to "build a diversified stock portfolio" or hire someone to do it for us.

Bitcoin enables all of us to focus on our lives - our friends and family - doing what we love with the short time we have on this earth. Time is scarce. Life is complicated. Bitcoin is the most simple aspect of our complicated lives. If we spend our scarce time working then we should be able to easily save that accrued value for future generations without watching the news or understanding complicated financial markets. Bitcoin makes this possible for anyone.

Yesterday was Mother's Day. Raising a human is complicated. It is hard, it requires immense personal responsibility, it requires critical thinking, but mothers figure it out, because it is worth it. Using and saving bitcoin is simple -  simply install an app on your phone. Every mother can do it. Every person can do it.

Life is complicated. Life is beautiful. Bitcoin is simple.

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@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

Will not live in a pod.
Will not eat the bugs.
Will not get the chip.
Will not get a blue check.
Will not use CBDCs.

Live Free or Die.

Why did Elon buy twitter for $44 Billion? What value does he see in it besides the greater influence that undoubtedly comes with controlling one of the largest social platforms in the world? We do not need to speculate - he made his intentions incredibly clear in his first meeting with twitter employees after his takeover - WeChat of the West.

To those that do not appreciate freedom, the value prop is clear - WeChat is incredibly powerful and successful in China.

To those that do appreciate freedom, the concern is clear - WeChat has essentially become required to live in China, has surveillance and censorship integrated at its core, and if you are banned from the app your entire livelihood is at risk. Employment, housing, payments, travel, communication, and more become extremely difficult if WeChat censors determine you have acted out of line.

The blue check is the first step in Elon's plan to bring the chinese social credit score system to the west. Users who verify their identity are rewarded with more reach and better tools than those that do not. Verified users are the main product of Elon's twitter - an extensive database of individuals and complete control of the tools he will slowly get them to rely on - it is easier to monetize cattle than free men.

If you cannot resist the temptation of the blue check in its current form you have already lost - what comes next will be much darker. If you realize the need to resist - freedom tech provides us options.

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Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.

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If you missed my nostr introduction post you can find it here. My nostr account can be found here.

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We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted on a centralized social platform it will usually be posted by someone to nostr.

We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted exclusively to nostr it is cross posted by someone to various centralized social platforms.

We are nearly at the point that you can recommend a cross platform app that users can install and easily onboard without additional guides or resources.

As companies continue to build walls around their centralized platforms nostr posts will be the easiest to cross reference and verify - as companies continue to censor their users nostr is the best censorship resistant alternative - gradually then suddenly nostr will become the standard. 🫡

Current Nostr Stats

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Influencers would have you believe there is an ongoing binance bank run but bitcoin wallet data says otherwise.

- binance wallets are near all time highs
- bitfinex wallets are also trending up
- gemini and coinbase are being hit with massive withdrawals though

You should not trust custodians, they can rug you without warning. It is incredibly important you learn how to hold bitcoin yourself, but also consider not blindly trusting influencers with a ref link to shill you.

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For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

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Microsoft Cloud hiring to "implement global small modular reactor and microreactor" strategy to power data centers: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-cloud-hiring-to-implement-global-small-modular-reactor-and-microreactor-strategy-to-power-data-centers/

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Humanity's Natural State Is Chaos
Without order there is chaos. Humans competing with each other for scarce resources naturally leads to conflict until one group achieves significant power and instates a "monopoly on violence."

Power Brings Stability
Power has always been the key means to achieve stability in societies. Centralized power can be incredibly effective in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, and social unrest efficiently. Unfortunately this power is often abused and corrupted.

Centralized Power Breeds Tyranny
Centralized power often leads to tyrannical rule. When a select few individuals hold control over a society, they tend to become corrupted. Centralized power structures often lack accountability and transparency, and rely too heavily on trust.

Distributed Power Cultivates Freedom
New technology that empowers individuals provide us the ability to rebuild societies from the bottom up. Strong individuals that can defend and provide for themselves will help build strong local communities on a similar foundation. The result is power being distributed throughout society rather than held by a select few.

In the short term, relying on trust and centralized power is an easy answer to mitigating chaos, but freedom tech tools provide us the ability to build on top of much stronger distributed foundations that provide stability while also cultivating individual freedom.

The solution starts with us. Empower yourself. Empower others. A grassroots freedom tech movement scaling one person at a time.

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Marty's Bent

It's been a hell of a week in Austin, Texas. The Texas Energy & Mining Summit was held at Bitcoin Park Austin on Tuesday and yesterday. Around 200 people from across the energy sector and the mining sector convened to discuss the current state of bitcoin mining, how it integrates with energy systems, and where things are going in the near to medium term. Representatives from ERCOT, Halliburton, and some of the largest mining companies in the world were in attendence. Across town, Bitcoin++ is holding their conference on mempools, which is fitting considering there is currently an ongoing debate about mempool policy and whether or not Bitcoin Core should eliminate the data limit on OP_RETURN.

I've had the pleasure of participating in both events. At the Texas Energy & Mining Summit I opened up the two-day event with the opening panel on why Texas is perfectly suited not only for bitcoin mining but for the bitcoin industry in general. Texas is a state that highly values private property rights, low taxes, and free market competition. It's become clear to me over the four years that I've lived in Texas that it is an incredible place to start a bitcoin business. The energy down here (pun intended) is palpable.

I also hosted the ending panel with Nick Gates from Priority Power, Will Cole from Zaprite and Jay Beddict from Foundry about what we have to look forward to through the rest of the year. I think the consensus was pretty clear on the panel, there's never been a more bullish setup for bitcoin historically. The political support we're getting here in the United States, the institutional adoption that we're seeing, and the fervor around protocol level development are all pointing in the right direction. Even though the discussions around protocol development can be contentious at times, it's a signal that people really care about this open source monetary protocol that we're all building on. We all agreed that Bitcoin has never been more de-risked than it is today. That is not to say that there aren't any risk.

We also discussed the problem with mining pool centralization and the FPPS payout scheme and why people need to be paying attention to it. But I think overall, things are looking pretty good right now.

Yesterday I also had the pleasure of running the live desk at Bitcoin++ speaking with many of the developers building out the protocol layer and layers above bitcoin. It's always extremely humbling to sit down and speak with the developers because they are so damn smart. Brilliant people who really care deeply about bitcoin. Even though many of them have very different views about the state of bitcoin and how to build it out moving forward. I view my role on the live desk is simply to try to get everybody's perspective. Not only on the OP_RETURN discussion, but on the future of bitcoin and how the protocol progresses from a technical perspective.

I had many conversations. The first with Average Gary and VNPRC, who are working on hashpools, which are attempting to solve the mining pool centralization and privacy problems that exists by using ecash. Hashpool gives miners the ability to exchange hash shares for ehash tokens. that are immediately liquid and exchangeable for bitcoin over the lightning network. Solving the consistent payout and liquidity problem that miners are always trying to solve. Currently FPPS payout schemes are the way they solve these problems. I'm incredibly optimistic about the hashpools project.

I also had the pleasure of speaking with SuperTestNet and Dusty Daemon, who are both focused on making bitcoin more inherently private at the protocol layer and on the lightning network. I think Dusty's work on splicing is very underappreciated right now and is something that you should all look into. Dusty also explained an idea he has that would make CoinJoin coordination much easier by creating a standardized coordination protocol. I'm going to butcher the explanation here, But I think the general idea is to create a way for people to combine inputs by monitoring the lightning network and looking for individual actors who are looking to rebalance channels and opportunistically set up a collaborative transaction with them. This is something I think everyone should look into and champion because I think it would be incredibly beneficial to on-chain privacy. As Bitcoin scales and gets adopted by millions and billions of people over the next few decades.

I also had the pleasure of speaking with Andrew Poelstra and Boerst about cryptography and block templates. For those of you who are unaware, Andrew Poelstra the Head of Research at Blockstream and on the cutting edge of the cryptography that bitcoin uses and may implement in the future. We had a wide ranging discussion about OP_RETURN, FROST, Musig2, Miniscript, quantum. resistant cryptographic libraries, and how Bitcoin Core actually works as a development project.

I also spoke with Liam Egan from Alpen Labs. He's working on ZK rollups on Bitcoin. Admittedly, this is an area I haven't explored too deeply, so it was awesome to sit down with Liam and get his perspective. Alpen Labs is leveraging BitVM to enable their rollups.

I highly recommend if and when you get the time to check out the YouTube stream of the Live Desk. A lot of very deep, technical conversations, but if you're really interested to learn how bitcoin actually works and some of the ideas that are out there to make it better, this is an incredible piece of content to watch. I'm about to head over for day two of Bitcoin++ to run the Live Desk again. So if you get this email before we go live make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel and tune in for the day.

One thing I will say. Last night, there was a debate about OP_RETURN and I think it's important to note that despite how vitriolic people may get on Twitter, it's always interesting to see people with diametrically opposed views get together and have civil debates. It's obvious that everyone involved cares deeply about bitcoin. Having these tough conversations in person is very important. Particularly, civil conversations. I certainly think yesterday's debate was civil. Though, I will say I think that as bitcoiners, we should hold ourselves to a higher standard of decorum when debates like this are had.

Tyler Campbell from Unchained mentioned that it is insane that there was such a small group of people attending this particular debate about the future of a two trillion dollar protocol. Bitcoin is approaching $100,000 again as I type and no one in big tech, no one in big finance outside of people looking for bitcoin treasury plays is really paying attention to what's happening at the protocol level. This is simply funny to observe and probably a good thing in the long run. But, Meta, Stripe, Apple, Visa, Mastercard and the Teslas of the world are all asleep at the wheel as we build out the future of money.

The $1 Trillion Basis Trade Time Bomb

The massive basis trade currently looming over financial markets represents a systemic risk that dwarfs previous crises. As James Lavish warned during our conversation, approximately $1 trillion in leveraged positions exist within this trade - ten times larger than those held by Long-Term Capital Management before its 1998 collapse. These trades employ staggering leverage ratios between 20x to 100x just to make minuscule basis point differences profitable. The Brookings Institution, which Lavish describes as a "tacit research arm of the Fed," has published a paper explicitly warning about this trade's dangers.

"The Brookings Institution came out with a solution... instead of printing money this time, the Fed will just take the whole trade off of the hedge funds books. Absolutely, utterly maniacal. The thought of the Fed becoming a hedge fund... it's nuts." - James Lavish

What makes this situation particularly alarming is how an unwind could trigger cascading margin calls throughout interconnected financial markets. As Lavish explained, when positions begin unwinding, prices move dramatically, triggering more margin calls that force more selling. This "powder keg behind the scenes" is being closely monitored by sophisticated investors who understand its destructive potential. Unlike a controlled demolition, this unwinding could quickly become chaotic, potentially forcing unprecedented Fed intervention.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Bitcoin's role as the neutral reserve asset, nation-state mining strategies, and the repeal of SAB 121's impact on banking adoption.

Headlines of the Day

Panama City Signs Deal for Bitcoin Municipal Payments - via X

U.S. Economy Polls Show Falling Confidence in Trump Leadership - via CNBC

Jack Mallers's Bitcoin Bank Targets $500 Trillion Market - via X

Bitcoin Decouples From Markets With 10% Gain Amid Asset Slump - via X

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Looking for the perfect video _to push the smartest person you know from zero to one on bitcoin? Bitcoin, Not Crypto is a three-part master class from Parker Lewis and Dhruv Bansal that cuts through the noise—covering why 2

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

I've pulled together the most compelling forward-looking predictions from our recent podcast conversations. These insights highlight where our guests see opportunities and challenges in the Bitcoin ecosystem, energy markets, and beyond.

AI Agents Will Drive Bitcoin Adoption More Than Human Users by 2030 - Andrew Myers

Andrew Myers described how the artificial intelligence revolution will fundamentally transform Bitcoin usage patterns over the next few years. He highlighted Paul's tweet that suggested machine-to-machine transactions using Bitcoin will soon dominate the network.

"We talk about Bitcoin being used as a medium of exchange. We're going to find that the machines are doing most of that exchange at some point relatively soon," Andrew explained. "The agents using Bitcoin to complete tasks using something like L4 or two protocol is going to far surpass the amount of transactions that humans are doing to do things in their everyday lives."

Andrew believes AI agents will naturally gravitate toward Bitcoin because it's more energy-efficient from a computational perspective than traditional payment rails. As AI systems optimize for energy efficiency, Bitcoin's direct settlement mechanism becomes increasingly attractive compared to legacy financial infrastructure. This shift could accelerate Bitcoin adoption in ways we haven't fully anticipated, creating a new category of machine-driven demand.

CalPERS Funding Status Will Drop Below 70% by June 2025 - Dom Bei

Dom Bei, who's running for the Board of Trustees at CalPERS, made a concerning prediction about America's largest public pension fund. Currently sitting at approximately 75% funded, Dom warned the situation could deteriorate further after recent tariff-related markdowns.

"They say that the fund had a $26 billion markdown, which if my math is correct, would bring the fund closer towards the 70% funded number," Dom explained. He noted the fund needs to recover these losses before the June 30, 2025 reporting deadline, or face serious consequences.

If CalPERS funding status drops below 70%, Dom predicts a familiar pattern will unfold: municipalities and taxpayers will face higher contribution rates to cover the shortfall, diverting money from essential services like parks, schools, and public safety. This would likely trigger another round of pension reform debates targeting worker benefits, despite similar reforms in 2013 failing to address the fundamental performance issues plaguing the fund.

Energy Companies Will Incorporate Bitcoin Into Settlements Within 3 Years - Andrew Myers

Andrew Myers outlined a compelling vision for Bitcoin's integration into energy markets, predicting that by 2027 (block 1,050,000), we'll see widespread adoption of Bitcoin for energy transactions and settlements. He described his company's mission as enabling "every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000."

"Our mantra for Bitcoin is fast, accurate, transparent energy transactions," Andrew explained. He highlighted several inefficiencies in current energy markets that Bitcoin could solve, including: Information asymmetry between energy buyers and sellers. Slow 30-day billing cycles creating unnecessary credit risk
Capital locked up in prepayments, deposits, and collateral requirements.

Andrew revealed that his team has already prototyped a Bitcoin collateral product and that a major energy company in Texas is currently building similar functionality. He predicts these early implementations will demonstrate Bitcoin's potential to unlock billions in working capital across the energy sector through faster settlement and reduced collateral requirements.

Most significantly, Andrew mentioned early discussions with independent system operators about modifying power market protocols to incorporate Bitcoin as an alternative settlement mechanism alongside the US dollar.

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Blockspace conducts cutting-edge proprietary research for investors.

Bitcoin Miners Face Hard Choices as AI Data Centers Pick Prime Locations

Bitcoin miners hoping to cash in on the AI boom by selling their facilities to hyperscalers are finding fewer opportunities than expected. With mining economics dimming and specific buyer requirements limiting potential deals, the industry faces significant challenges.

Christian Lopez, Head of Blockchain and Digital Assets at Cohen and Company Capital Markets, notes a "glut of bitcoin mines" currently on the market. While miners control substantial power resources, hyperscalers typically demand facilities with at least 150-200 megawatts capacity within 100 miles of major cities—criteria most mining operations don't meet.

An estimated 1-1.5 gigawatts of mining capacity is available for acquisition, creating downward pressure on power prices. This oversupply stems from both deteriorating mining economics and overoptimistic AI-related expectations. The valuation gap remains a persistent obstacle: "Buyers face the critical 'buy versus build' question," Lopez explains. While buyers typically value sites at $300,000-$500,000 per megawatt plus a modest premium, sellers often seek $1.5-$2 million per megawatt based on public company valuations.

Adding to these challenges, retrofitting mining sites for high-performance computing often requires completely reconstructing the power infrastructure rather than leveraging existing setups. Despite current difficulties, industry sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with many experts predicting Bitcoin could reach $125,000-$200,000 by late 2025.

Link to Full Article

Subscribe to them here (seriously, you should): https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com/

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Key Takeaways

Lyn Alden unpacks the complex interplay of global trade imbalances, the dollar’s entrenched reserve currency status, and America’s eroded industrial base, arguing that aggressive tariffs under Trump have backfired by hurting U.S. businesses without reversing decades of offshoring. She illustrates how China has rapidly ascended the value chain, dominating key industries and making it nearly impossible for the U.S. to build a trade coalition against them. Despite the U.S.’s massive debt and persistent global demand for dollars, cracks are forming in the system as nations explore alternative payment systems and neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin. Lyn emphasizes that Bitcoin’s most effective path to integration is through grassroots and corporate adoption, not government-led initiatives, and warns that unless the U.S. urgently scales its energy and industrial capacity, it risks falling further behind China’s unmatched pace of growth and infrastructure dominance.

Best Quotes

• "The trade deficit is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services, which sounds like a really good deal."
• "It's better to correct these imbalances from a position of strength, not weakness."
• "All that debt creates inflexible demand for dollars. There’s literally way more demand than dollars in the system."
• "China became the largest auto exporter in the world in just four years."
• "Bitcoin isn’t changing to fit into the global financial system. The global financial system is changing to fit Bitcoin."
• "Individuals, small businesses, corporations—these are the real drivers of Bitcoin adoption. Not governments."

Conclusion

This episode offers a sobering look at America’s trade and currency dilemmas, with Lyn Alden explaining why quick policy fixes like tariffs can’t reverse decades of deindustrialization tied to the dollar’s reserve status. She highlights the rise of neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin as important hedges, stressing that grassroots and corporate adoption will be more effective than government-led efforts. Lyn also warns that without a major push to expand energy production, the U.S. risks falling behind in an AI-driven, hardware-centric world, urging strategic humility and innovation to navigate the shifting global order.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:31 - Triffin's dilemma
8:10 - Debt leverage
11:04 - Fold & Bitkey
12:41 - Trump's goals and tariff policy
19:54 - Unchained
20:24 - China is not weak
30:07 - Energy
37:15 - AI/robots
41:11 - SBR
48:47 - Bitcoin credit products
52:40 - Eventful week for bitcoin

Transcript

(00:00) They ramped up tariffs super high, super quickly. In many cases, were so high that they hurt us as much as some of our trade adversaries. China has ramped up to like unfathomable degrees. Nuclear, solar, pretty much everything that they can throw money at they're building. The trade is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services, which sounds like a really good deal.
(00:19) They take those slips of paper and then they buy our stocks. They buy our corporate bonds and government bonds. And so they end up owning a larger and larger share of corporate America. got the headphone hair. I'm all out of whack, Lynn. It's been a long week here in Austin. Yeah, I can imagine. It's been a long time since we've talked on the show. It's been two years.
(00:41) I was checking, which is a astonishing to me. But no better time than now. Uh I think quite literally based off of all the conversations we've had uh over the years. I mean, your famous saying, nothing stops this train. I think we're coming to a juncture where that's becoming abundantly clear. and you wrote uh a newsletter earlier this week, I believe you sent it out Sunday, that basically highlighted the crux of the problem, which is the dollar reserve status and the almost impossible task that Trump would like to accomplish, but
(01:21) likely isn't the case, which is sort of solving Triffin's dilemma of reshoring manufacturing while keeping US dollar dominance. So I think diving into this from first principles would be great. Sure. Yeah. And that's that's the um I can imagine the administration's challenge of trying to communicate this because uh the intricacies of how trade deficits and the reserve currency kind of pair together is very wonkish.
(01:46) It it kind of has this like academic quality to it that doesn't go over well uh in kind of political oriented speeches. Um like I would I would be terrible at a political rally for example when I try to explain any of this. Um and so we kind of have this situation where um and this was outlined back during the Breton Wood system by Triffin as you mentioned uh which is that having the reserve currency does come with a bunch of benefits um you know historically called a extraordin uh exorbitant privilege um but then it has certain costs to
(02:15) maintain it and those costs can vary a bit depending on how the system structure. So for example back in the Bretton Woods era the cost was that we kept draining our gold reserves. uh we basically had to kind of keep paying out our go gold gold reserves to maintain that part of the system and in the current formation uh instead we kind of pay for it with our industrial base.
(02:36) We keep kind of sending out little parts of our industrial base over time to maintain the the global reserve currency status. And there's a few reasons for that. One is that um because unlike every other fiat currency, the dollar has all these extra demands for it by countries all around the world. um all these different purposes.
(02:55) um there's this extra demand for dollars which sounds good on the surface and as for Americans for example we have tons of import power when we go on vacations to the rest of the world it's you know we have pretty strong purchasing power compared to when they come to the US um these things seem good on the surface but it also means that it's pretty expensive to manufacture lower margin things here at home uh and so we have this kind of situation where our imports are very strong our exports uh especially lower margin stuff is less uh
(03:22) competitive whereas we can still be competitive competitive on really high margin stuff, you know, technology, finance, healthcare, that kind of thing. Um, and then the other aspect is that even if you could somehow solve that, there's the more fundamental problem, which is that the whole world needs dollars uh for the you know, global reserve currency status to use it for international contract pricing, crossber financing, one side of every trade pair that they do, all these different purposes as a reserve asset. Um uh and
(03:51) when you step back and say, "Well, how do they get all those dollars if they're all using dollars? How did all those dollars get out there?" And the answer is trade deficits. Um basically that overvalued aspect forces open the US trade deficit. And every year we send out hundreds of billions or sometimes a trillion dollars in net outflows.
(04:10) And over years and decades, these have accumulated out there. And so, uh, kind of the way it works is that if you want to fix the trade deficit, which I've been I've been writing about since 2019, I think that's a I think that's a valid mandate to do. Um, unfortunately does come with trade-offs.
(04:26) Uh, some of the some of the benefits that that you know that we enjoy at the cost of the trade deficit. Um, if you do want to kind of fix that imbalance, it comes up, you know, with with basically giving away at least some of those benefits and prioritizing that that industrial base a bit more. And one of the dynamics that you highlighted in your newsletter, which makes sense, but wasn't very clear to me before, is that via these deficits, we flood international markets with dollars because we're sending parts of our industrial base over there. But then
(05:00) it's like cyclical. They take those dollars and then reinvest them in US financial assets. So it has this sort of flow where it goes out but then it comes back in into the financialized economy via equities and real estate and other such assets and that is good for asset owners here in the United States.
(05:19) But again I think that's is part of the bag of mandate is that sort of cycle has led to this large wealth gap in the United States that they're trying to fix. Yeah. Exactly. Um and so basically the opposite side of a current account deficit which is basically so the trade deficit plus things like interest and dividends.
(05:39) Um so we run a structural current account deficit and the opposite side of that is a capital account surplus. Um which is that funds flow in the rest of the world and buy our financial assets. Uh and so it's the the trade deficit is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services which sounds like a really good deal.
(05:57) Um but then the extra step of that that you mentioned is that they take those slips of paper or really those electronic digits that they have and then they buy our stocks, they buy our real estate, they buy our private equity, they they buy our corporate bonds and government bonds and so they end up owning a larger and larger share of corporate America as part of their kind of accumulated uh trade surpluses uh and reserve assets and uh international private assets.
(06:22) Um, and the kind of the consequence of this, if you kind of like view the foreign sector as an intermediary, we're basically constantly kind of taking economic vibrancy out of, you know, Michigan and Ohio and, uh, you know, rural Pennsylvania where the steel m

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Marty's Bent

Last week we covered the bombshell developments in the Samourai Wallet case. For those who didn't read that, last Monday the world was made aware of the fact that the SDNY was explicitly told by FinCEN that the federal regulator did not believe that Samourai Wallet was a money services business six months before arresting the co-founders of Samourai Wallet for conspiracy to launder money and illegally operating a money services business. This was an obvious overstep by the SDNY that many believed would be quickly alleviated, especially considering the fact that the Trump administration via the Department of Justice has made it clear that they do not intend to rule via prosecution.

It seems that this is not the case as the SDNY responded to a letter sent from the defense to dismiss the case by stating that they fully plan to move forward. Stating that they only sought the recommendations of FinCEN employees and did not believe that those employees' comments were indicative of FinCEN's overall views on this particular case. It's a pretty egregious abuse of power by the SDNY. I'm not sure if the particular lawyers and judges within the Southern District of New York are very passionate about preventing the use of self-custody bitcoin and products that enable bitcoiners to transact privately, or if they're simply participating in a broader meta war with the Trump administration - who has made it clear to federal judges across the country that last Fall's election will have consequences, mainly that the Executive Branch will try to effectuate the policies that President Trump campaigned on by any legal means necessary - and Samouari Wallet is simply in the middle of that meta war.

However, one thing is pretty clear to me, this is an egregious overstep of power. The interpretation of that law, as has been laid out and confirmed by FinCEN over the last decade, is pretty clear; you cannot be a money services business if you do not control the funds that people are sending to each other, which is definitely the case with Samourai Wallet. People downloaded Samourai Wallet, spun up their own private-public key pairs and initiated transactions themselves. Samourai never custodied funds or initiated transactions on behalf of their users. This is very cut and dry. Straight to the point. It should be something that anyone with more than two brain cells is able to discern pretty quickly.

It is imperative that anybody in the industry who cares about being able to hold bitcoin in self-custody, to mine bitcoin, and to send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion makes some noise around this case. None of the current administration's attempts to foster innovation around bitcoin in the United States will matter if the wrong precedent is set in this case. If the SDNY is successful in prosecuting Samourai Wallet, it will mean that anybody holding Bitcoin in self-custody, running a bitcoin fold node or mining bitcoin will have to KYC all of their users and counterparts lest they be labeled a money services business that is breaking laws stemming from the Bank Secrecy Act. This will effectively make building a self-custody bitcoin wallet, running a node, or mining bitcoin in tillegal in the United States. The ability to comply with the rules that would be unleashed if this Samourai case goes the wrong way, are such that it will effectively destroy the industry overnight.

It is yet to be seen whether or not the Department of Justice will step in to publicly flog the SDNY and force them to stop pursuing this case. This is the only likely way that the case will go away at this point, so it is very important that bitcoiners who care about being able to self-custody bitcoin, mine bitcoin, or send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion in the United States make it clear to the current administration and any local politicians that this is an issue that you care deeply about. If we are too complacent, there is a chance that the SDNY could completely annihilate the bitcoin industry in America despite of all of the positive momentum we're seeing from all angles at the moment.

Make some noise!

Bitcoin Adoption by Power Companies: The Next Frontier

In my recent conversation with Andrew Myers from Satoshi Energy, he shared their ambitious mission to "enable every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000" – roughly three years from now. This strategic imperative isn't just about creating new Bitcoin users; it's about sovereignty. Andrew emphasized that getting Bitcoin into the hands of energy companies who value self-sovereignty creates a more balanced future economic landscape. The excitement was palpable as he described how several energy companies are already moving beyond simply selling power to Bitcoin miners and are beginning to invest in mining operations themselves.

"You have global commodity companies being like, 'Oh, this is another commodity – we want to invest in this, we want to own this,'" - Andrew Myers

Perhaps most fascinating was Andrew's revelation about major energy companies in Texas developing Bitcoin collateral products for power contracts – a practical application that could revolutionize how energy transactions are settled. As energy companies continue embracing Bitcoin for both operations and collateral, we're witnessing the early stages of a profound shift in how critical infrastructure interfaces with sound money. The implications for both sectors could be transformative.

Check out the full podcast here for more on remote viewing, Nikola Tesla's predictions, and the convergence of Bitcoin and AI technology. We cover everything from humanoid robots to the energy demands of next-generation computing.

Headlines of the Day

Steak n Shake to Accept Bitcoin at All Locations May 16 - via X

Facebook Plans Crypto Wallets for 3B Users, Bitcoin Impact Looms - via X

Trump Urges Americans to Buy Stocks for Economic Boom - via X

UK Drops Tariffs, U.S. Farmers Set to Reap Major Benefits - via X

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Final thought...

Happy belated Mother's Day to all the moms out there.

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Marty's Bent

via Kevin McKernan

There's been a lot of discussion this week about Casey Means being nominated for Surgeon General of the United States and a broader overarching conversation about the effectiveness of MAHA since the inauguration and how effective it may or may not be moving forward. Many would say that President Trump won re-election due to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan deciding to reach across the aisle and join the Trump ticket, bringing with them the MAHA Moms, who are very focused on reorienting the healthcare system in the United States with a strong focus on the childhood vaccine schedule.

I'm not going to lie, this is something I'm passionate about as well, particularly after having many conversations over the years with doctors like Kevin McKernan, Dr. Jack Kruse, Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, Dr. Brooke Miller, Dr. Peter McCullough and others about the dangers of the COVID mRNA vaccines. As it stands today, I think this is the biggest elephant in the room in the world of healthcare. If you look at the data, particularly disability claims, life insurance claims, life expectancy, miscarriage rates, fertility issues and rates of turbo cancer around the world since the COVID vaccine was introduced in 2021, it seems pretty clear that there is harm being done to many of the people who have taken them.

The risk-reward ratio of the vaccines seems to be incredibly skewed towards risk over reward and children - who have proven to be least susceptible to COVID - are expected to get three COVID shots in the first year of their life if their parents follow the vaccine schedule. For some reason or another it seems that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has shied away from this topic after becoming the head of Health and Human Services within the Trump administration. This is after a multi-year campaign during which getting the vaccines removed from the market war a core part of his platform messaging.

I'm still holding out hope that sanity will prevail. The COVID mRNA vaccines will be taken off the market in a serious conversation about the crimes against humanity that unfolded during the COVID years will take place. However, we cannot depend on that outcome. We must build with the assumption in mind that that outcome may never materialize. This leads to identifying where the incentives within the system are misconstrued. One area where I think it's pretty safe to say that the incentives are misaligned is the fact that 95% of doctors work for and answer to a corporation driven by their bottom line. Instead of listening to their patients and truly caring about the outcome of each individual, doctors forced to think about the monetary outcome of the corporation they work for first.

The most pernicious way in which these misaligned incentives emerge is the way in which the hospital systems and physicians are monetarily incentivized by big pharma companies to push the COVID vaccine and other vaccines on their patients. It is important to acknowledge that we cannot be dependent on a system designed in this way to change from within. Instead, we must build a new incentive system and market structure. And obviously, if you're reading this newsletter, you know that I believe that bitcoin will play a pivotal role in realigning incentives across every industry. Healthcare just being one of them.

Bitcoiners have identified the need to become sovereign in our monetary matters, it probably makes sense to become sovereign when it comes to our healthcare as well. This means finding doctors who operate outside the corporate controlled system and are able to offer services that align incentives with the end patient. My family utilizes a combination of CrowdHealth and a private care physician to align incentives. We've even utilized a private care physician who allowed us to pay in Bitcoin for her services for a number of years. I think this is the model. Doctors accepting hard censorship resistant money for the healthcare and advice they provide. Instead of working for a corporation looking to push pharmaceutical products on their patients so they can bolster their bottom line, work directly with patients who will pay in bitcoin, which will appreciate in value over time.

I had a lengthy discussion with Dr. Jack Kruse on the podcast earlier today discussing these topic and more. It will be released on Thursday and I highly recommend you freaks check it out once it is published. Make sure you subscribe so you don't miss it.

How the "Exorbitant Privilege" of the Dollar is Undermining Our Manufacturing Base

In my conversation with Lyn Alden, we explored America's fundamental economic contradiction. As Lyn expertly explained, maintaining the dollar's reserve currency status while attempting to reshore manufacturing presents a near-impossible challenge - what economists call Triffin's Dilemma. The world's appetite for dollars gives Americans tremendous purchasing power but simultaneously hollows out our industrial base. The overvalued dollar makes our exports less competitive, especially for lower-margin manufacturing, while our imports remain artificially strong.

"Having the reserve currency does come with a bunch of benefits, historically called an exorbitant privilege, but then it has certain costs to maintain it." - Lyn Alden

This dilemma forces America to run persistent trade deficits, as this is how dollars flow to the world. For over four decades, these deficits have accumulated, creating massive economic imbalances that can't be quickly reversed. The Trump administration's attempts to address this through tariffs showcase how difficult rebalancing has become. As Lyn warned, even if we successfully pivot toward reshoring manufacturing, we'll face difficult trade-offs: potentially giving up some reserve currency benefits to rebuild our industrial foundation. This isn't just economic theory - it's the restructuring challenge that will define America's economic future.

Check out the full podcast here for more on China's manufacturing dominance, the role of Bitcoin in monetary transitions, and energy production as the foundation for future industrial power.

Headlines of the Day

Coinbase to replace Discover in S&P 500 on May 19 - via X

Mallers promises no rehypothecation in Strike Bitcoin loans - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Missouri passes HB 594, eliminates Bitcoin capital gains tax - via X

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The 2025 Bitcoin Policy Summit is set for June 25th—and it couldn’t come at a more important time. The Bitcoin industry is at a pivotal moment in Washington, with initiatives like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gaining rapid traction. Whether you’re a builder, advocate, academic, or policymaker—we want you at the table. Join us in DC to help define the future of freedom, money & innovation in the 21st century.

Sign Up

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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

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Final thought...

The 100+ degree days have returned to Austin, TX. Not mad about it... yet.

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Marty's Bent

via me

It seems like every other day there's another company announced that is going public with the intent of competing with Strategy by leveraging capital markets to create financial instruments to acquire Bitcoin in a way that is accretive for shareholders. This is certainly a very interesting trend, very bullish for bitcoin in the short-term, and undoubtedly making it so bitcoin is top of mind in the mainstream. I won't pretend to know whether or not these strategies will ultimately be successful or fail in the short, medium or long term. However, one thing I do know is that the themes that interest me, both here at TFTC and in my role as Managing Partner at Ten31, are companies that are building good businesses that are efficient, have product-market-fit, generate revenues and profits and roll those profits into bitcoin.

While it seems pretty clear that Strategy has tapped into an arbitrage that exists in capital markets, it's not really that exciting. From a business perspective, it's actually pretty straightforward and simple; find where potential arbitrage opportunities exists between pools of capital looking for exposure to spot bitcoin or bitcoin's volatility but can't buy the actual asset, and provide them with products that give them access to exposure while simultaneously creating a cult-like retail following. Rinse and repeat. To the extent that this strategy is repeatable is yet to be seen. I imagine it can expand pretty rapidly. Particularly if we have a speculative fervor around companies that do this. But in the long run, I think the signal is falling back to first principles, looking for businesses that are actually providing goods and services to the broader economy - not focused on the hyper-financialized part of the economy - to provide value and create efficiencies that enable higher margins and profitability.

With this in mind, I think it's important to highlight the combined leverage that entrepreneurs have by utilizing bitcoin treasuries and AI tools that are emerging and becoming more advanced by the week. As I said in the tweet above, there's never been a better time to start a business that finds product-market fit and cash flows quickly with a team of two to three people. If you've been reading this rag over the last few weeks, you know that I've been experimenting with these AI tools and using them to make our business processes more efficient here at TFTC. I've also been using them at Ten31 to do deep research and analysis.

It has become abundantly clear to me that any founder or entrepreneur that is not utilizing the AI tools that are emerging is going to get left behind. As it stands today, all anyone has to do to get an idea from a thought in your head to the prototype stage to a minimum viable product is to hop into something like Claude or ChatGPT, have a brief conversation with an AI model that can do deep research about a particular niche that you want to provide a good service to and begin building.

Later this week, I will launch an app called Opportunity Cost in the Chrome and Firefox stores. It took me a few hours of work over the span of a week to ideate and iterate on the concept to the point where I had a working prototype that I handed off to a developer who is solving the last mile problem I have as an "idea guy" of getting the product to market. Only six months ago, accomplishing something like this would have been impossible for me. I've never written a line of code that's actually worked outside of the modded MySpace page I made back in middle school. I've always had a lot of ideas but have never been able to effectively communicate them to developers who can actually build them. With a combination of ChatGPT-03 and Replit, I was able to build an actual product that works. I'm using it in my browser today. It's pretty insane.

There are thousands of people coming to the same realization at the same time right now and going out there and building niche products very cheaply, with small teams, they are getting to market very quickly, and are amassing five figures, six figures, sometimes seven figures of MRR with extremely high profit margins. What most of these entrepreneurs have not really caught on to yet is that they should be cycling a portion - in my opinion, a large portion - of those profits into bitcoin. The combination of building a company utilizing these AI tools, getting it to market, getting revenue and profits, and turning those profits into bitcoin cannot be understated. You're going to begin seeing teams of one to ten people building businesses worth billions of dollars and they're going to need to store the value they create, any money that cannot be debased.

Grant Gilliam, one of the co-founders of Ten31, wrote about this in early 2024, bitcoin being the fourth lever of equity value growth for companies.

[

Bitcoin Treasury - The Fourth Lever to Equity Value Growth

Most companies do not hold enough bitcoin There is a saying you often hear in bitcoin circles that “you can never have enough bitcoin.” This is typically expressed by those who have spent the time to both understand bitcoin’s unique and superior monetary properties and also to appreciate why tho

Ten31 - Investors in bitcoin infrastructure and freedom techGrant Gilliam

](https://ten31.vc/insights/treasury?ref=tftc.io)

We already see this theme playing out at Ten31 with some of our portfolio companies, most notably Strike, which recently released some of their financials, highlighting the fact that they're extremely profitable with high margins and a relatively small team (~75). This is extremely impressive, especially when you consider the fact that they're a global company competing with the likes of Coinbase and Block, which have each thousands of employees.

Even those who are paying attention to the developments in the AI space and how the tools can enable entrepreneurs to build faster aren't really grasping the gravity of what's at play here. Many are simply thinking of consumer apps that can be built and distributed quickly to market, but the ways in which AI can be implemented extend far beyond the digital world. Here's a great example of a company a fellow freak is building with the mindset of keeping the team small, utilizing AI tools to automate processes and quickly push profits into bitcoin.

via Cormac

Again, this is where the exciting things are happening in my mind. People leveraging new tools to solve real problems to drive real value that ultimately produce profits for entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurs who decide to save those profits in bitcoin will find that the equity value growth of their companies accelerates exponentially as they provide more value, gain more traction, and increase their profits while also riding the bitcoin as it continues on its monetization phase. The compounded leverage of building a company that leverages AI tools and sweeps profits into bitcoin is going to be the biggest asymmetric play of the next decade. Personally, I also see it as something that's much more fulfilling than the pure play bitcoin treasury companies that are coming to market because consumers and entrepreneurs are able to recive and provide a ton of value in the real economy.

If you're looking to stay on top of the developments in the AI space and how you can apply the tools to help build your business or create a new business, I highly recommend you follow somebody like Greg Isenberg, whose Startup Ideas Podcast has been incredibly valuable for me as I attempt to get a lay of the land of how to implement AI into my businesses.

America's Two Economies

In my recent podcast with Lyn Alden, she outlined how our trade deficits create a cycle that's reshaping America's economic geography. As Alden explained, US trade deficits pump dollars into international markets, but these dollars don't disappear - they return as investments in US financial assets. This cycle gradually depletes industrial heartlands while enriching financial centers on the coasts, creating what amounts to two separate American economies.

"We're basically constantly taking economic vibrancy out of Michigan and Ohio and rural Pennsylvania where the steel mills were... and stuffing it back into financial assets in New York and Silicon Valley." - Lyn Alden

This pattern has persisted for over four decades, accelerating significantly since the early 1980s. Alden emphasized that while economists may argue there's still room before reaching a crisis point, the political consequences are already here. The growing divide between these two Americas has fueled populist sentiment as voters who feel left behind seek economic rebalancing, even if they can't articulate the exact mechanisms causing their hardship.

Check out the full podcast here for more on China's man

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Key Takeaways

Dr. Jack Kruse returns in this fiery episode to expose what he alleges is a coordinated campaign by Big Pharma, technocrats, and global elites to control public health narratives and financial systems through manipulated health policies and propaganda. He accuses figures like Calli and Casey Means of fronting a compromised "Maha Movement," backed by A16Z, Big Tech, and the World Economic Forum, with ambitions to embed themselves into U.S. health policy and bioweapons programs. Kruse details his covert efforts to expose these connections, claiming they led to the withdrawal of Casey Means' Surgeon General nomination, and warns of a looming biotechnocratic surveillance state where mRNA vaccines act as bioweapons to enforce compliance. Urging Bitcoiners to expand their fight for sovereignty beyond finance into healthcare and biology, Kruse argues that the true war is over time sovereignty—not just monetary freedom—and that protecting children from vaccine harms is now the most urgent front in this escalating battle.

Best Quotes

"Bitcoin is worthless if you have no time."

"We’re not playing games here. This is to the death."

"Big Pharma is just the drug dealer. The real boss is the Department of Defense and DARPA."

"The real battle in D.C. isn’t left vs. right, it’s Rothschilds and Rockefellers vs. the technocrats."

"First principle Bitcoiners need to become first principle decentralizers of life itself."

Conclusion

This episode delivers a provocative call to action from Dr. Jack Kruse, who warns that the fight for sovereignty must go beyond finance to confront what he sees as the immediate threat of centralized bio-surveillance through mRNA vaccines. Blending insider claims with health activism, Kruse urges Bitcoiners and the public to recognize that true freedom requires decentralizing not only money but also healthcare and information systems, arguing that without protecting biological sovereignty, Bitcoin’s promise of liberty will be meaningless if people are left physically, mentally, or politically compromised.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:47 - Outlining MAHA infiltration
22:59 - Fold & Bitkey
24:35- Danger to children
28:27 - Political shell game
35:40 - Unchained
36:09 - Time theft
41:07 - Vax data
46:32 - Bioweapon and control system
58:29 - Game plan - Decentralized yourself
1:15:16 - Priorities
1:24:30 - Support Mary Talley Bowden

Transcript

(00:00) me, Larry Leard, those kind of Bitcoiners, the people that are out there that have money, like they're looking to take us out. You need to know a little bit about the back history that I don't think I've talked about anywhere on any other podcast. Rick Callie is linked to the current administration is through Susie Watts.
(00:17) They both were working at Mercury PR basically is the frontman for propaganda for Big Farm. Basically, who pays you? You become their [ __ ] We're not playing games here. This is to the death. This is the biggest issue facing Maha now. It's not Froot Loops. It's not red dye. But the messenger RA job can drop you like Demar Handler.
(00:40) Can end your career like JJ Watt. Dr. Jack Cruz, welcome back to the show. Thank you, sir, for having me. Well, thank you for being here. I mean, you're making a lot of noise around a topic that I wasn't well aware of. I'm not going to lie. I think I got duped by or we'll find out if I actually got duped by the meanses. Cali means was coming in last year talking big about Maja getting the food correct.
(01:15) Um, basically telling the story of him being a lobbyist and understanding how corrupt the food system is. And we talked about it last time we were on two months ago. this sort of maha movement has shifted towards focusing on preventative care particularly in diets and you were on the Danny Danny Jones show late last year with Cali means uh sort of pressuring him to admit that the vaccine should be pulled off the market and he did not did not bite and would not budge on that and now his sister Casey has been appointed to surgeon general and
(01:50) this is something Let me let me tell you a little bit about that because you need to know a little bit about the back history that I don't think I've talked about anywhere on any other podcast. She was going to be named surgeon general uh back then. Just so you know that I knew it and I knew quite a bit of other things.
(02:16) So what was my goal? I knew um that Cali and Casey were tied to big tech. They were tied specifically, which you'll be interested in, A16Z, the shitcoiners extraordinaire, and they were also tied to the World Economic Forum through the book deal. Um, so my goal at that time as part of the person that was big in the mob like, and Marty, I don't know if you know this back part of the story.
(02:46) Maha begins not with Casey and Cali and Bobby Kennedy. It began with me, Bobby, and Rick Rubin on Rick's podcast the day that I told RFK Jr. that SV40 was in the Fiser Jabs. Mhm. And that's when Bobby found out that I wrote the law for Blly for a constitutional amendment for medical freedom. And he asked me to use four pages of the law.
(03:13) And Blly cleared me to do that. And then Aaron Siri, who was Bobby's attorney and working with a lot of the stuff that Bobby does with vaccines and I can Aaron contacted me. So just so you're clear, this is two and a half years ago. This is before this is a year previous to Casey and Cali coming on the scene. And I was always behind the scenes.
(03:37) I was not really interested in getting involved um in the [ __ ] show. But when I saw these two show up, the way they showed up and when I heard Cali actually say on a podcast that, you know, he was the modus operande of the Maha movement and he's the one that brought Bobby and Trump together.
(04:02) I said, "That's where I draw a [ __ ] line." I'm like, "Uh-uh. These guys, I know exactly what they're going to do. I see the game plan. they're going to use a shell game and I needed to have proof before you can come out and be a savage. You got to have proof. So, I hired three former Secret Service agents to actually do a very deep dive.
(04:24) We're talking about the kind of dive that you would get uh if you were going for a Supreme Court nomination. Okay? It cost me a lot of money. And why did I think it was important? Because as you know, you know, as a Bitcoiner, you just saw the big scam that happened with Maya Paribu down in Cerninam that happened after.
(04:49) Well, when I hired these guys, when all of my research that I had done was confirmed by them, I said, "Okay, now we need to go on a podcast very publicly and we need to put Cali's feet to the fire." Why? because I knew and he did not know that I knew this prior to the podcast. Uh that his sister was going to be nominated for surgeon general then.
(05:14) And because he didn't know and you you'll be able to confirm this or the savages in your audience can confirm this with Danny Jones. Do you know that Cali cancelled the podcast to do it into uh February? Yeah. Well, I think it was April of 25 because he didn't want to give anybody the time and day.
(05:37) So, what did I start doing? I started posting some of the information back in November that I found and the links to the Wjikis and the links to Bin, the links to A16Z. I didn't didn't give a ton of the information, but let's just put it this way. enough to make Callie and Cassie scream a little bit that people in DC started to read all my tweets.
(06:04) And then he called Danny up and said, "Danny, I want to do this podcast immediately." And I knew the reason why. Cuz I was baiting him to come so I could hit him with the big stuff. Why? Because you have to understand these two kids, you know, tied to the Rockefellers. They're tied to the banking elite.
(06:26) They're tied to the World Economics Form. Rick Callie is linked to the current administration is through Susie Watts. They both were working at Mercury PR and uh Mercury PR uh basically is the frontman for propaganda for Big Farm and everybody knows that, but not everybody knew that Cali worked for them.
(06:50) And you know the story that he sold all you guys, how he fooled you. And I consider you a smart guy, a savage, it's not shocking how he fooled you because he said as a um a lobbyist basically who pays you, you become their [ __ ] to to be quite honest and you'll say things that will make sense. Everybody in creation who's going to watch your podcast knows that all the things that Casey and Cali have said have been said literally for 30, 40, 50 years going all the way back to probably Anel Peas about diet and exercise.
(07:25) Everybody [ __ ] knows that. It's not new. They just decided to repackage it up and then they actually got in Bobby's ear about it. And when I released all this stuff, did Bobby know what I had? Yeah, he knew. And did the people in DC all what all their antennas up about this issue? Who was most pissed off with Uncle Jack back then? Susie [ __ ] Walls.
(07:56) Why? because those two are her babies that were going to be the amber that Susie Cassidy Cassidy Big Farmer were going to place around um Bobby Kennedy once he got confirmed. And that's why for the savages that are listening to this podcast, you go back and look at Nicole's tweet from, you know, I guess it was about four or five days ago that this didn't make sense.
(08:20) Why? because I gave the data directly to the people in DC behind the scenes of what was really going on and because it was so explosive. That's the reason Susie had to not give the job to Casey Means. She had to wait till the heat died down. So they elevated Janette and Janette bas

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Marty's Bent

It's been a pretty historic week for the United States as it pertains to geopolitical relations in the Middle East. President Trump and many members of his administration, including AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, traveled across the Middle East making deals with countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Syria, and others. Many are speculating that Iran may be included in some behind the scenes deal as well. This trip to the Middle East makes sense considering the fact that China is also vying for favorable relationships with those countries. The Middle East is a power player in the world, and it seems pretty clear that Donald Trump is dead set on ensuring that they choose the United States over China as the world moves towards a more multi-polar reality.

Many are calling the events of this week the Riyadh Accords. There were many deals that were struck in relation to artificial intelligence, defense, energy and direct investments in the United States. A truly prolific power play and demonstration of deal-making ability of Donald Trump, if you ask me. Though I will admit some of the numbers that were thrown out by some of the countries were a bit egregious. We shall see how everything plays out in the coming years. It will be interesting to see how China reacts to this power move by the United States.

While all this was going on, there was something happening back in the United States that many people outside of fringe corners of FinTwit are not talking about, which is the fact that the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yields are back on the rise. Yesterday, they surpassed the levels of mid-April that caused a market panic and are hovering back around levels that have not been seen since right before Donald Trump's inauguration.

I imagine that there isn't as much of an uproar right now because I'm pretty confident the media freakouts we were experiencing in mid-April were driven by the fact that many large hedge funds found themselves off sides of large levered basis trades. I wouldn't be surprised if those funds have decreased their leverage in those trades and bond yields being back to mid-April levels is not affecting those funds as much as they were last month. But the point stands, the 10-year and 30-year yields are significantly elevated with the 30-year approaching 5%. Regardless of the deals that are currently being made in the Middle East, the Treasury has a big problem on its hands. It still has to roll over many trillions worth of debt over over the next few years and doing so at these rates is going to be massively detrimental to fiscal deficits over the next decade. The interest expense on the debt is set to explode in the coming years.

On that note, data from the first quarter of 2025 has been released by the government and despite all the posturing by the Trump administration around DOGE and how tariffs are going to be beneficial for the U.S. economy, deficits are continuing to explode while the interest expense on the debt has definitively surpassed our annual defense budget.

via Charlie Bilello

via Mohamed Al-Erian

To make matters worse, as things are deteriorating on the fiscal side of things, the U.S. consumer is getting crushed by credit. The 90-plus day delinquency rates for credit card and auto loans are screaming higher right now.

via TXMC

One has to wonder how long all this can continue without some sort of liquidity crunch. Even though equities markets have recovered from their post-Liberation Day month long bear market, I would not be surprised if what we're witnessing is a dead cat bounce that can only be continued if the money printers are turned back on. Something's got to give, both on the fiscal side and in the private markets where the Common Man is getting crushed because he's been forced to take on insane amounts of debt to stay afloat after years of elevated levels of inflation. Add on the fact that AI has reached a state of maturity that will enable companies to replace their current meat suit workers with an army of cheap, efficient and fast digital workers and it isn't hard to see that some sort of employment crisis could be on the horizon as well.

Now is not the time to get complacent. While I do believe that the deals that are currently being made in the Middle East are probably in the best interest of the United States as the world, again, moves toward a more multi-polar reality, we are facing problems that one cannot simply wish away. They will need to be confronted. And as we've seen throughout the 21st century, the problems are usually met head-on with a money printer.

I take no pleasure in saying this because it is a bit uncouth to be gleeful to benefit from the strife of others, but it is pretty clear to me that all signs are pointing to bitcoin benefiting massively from everything that is going on. The shift towards a more multi-polar world, the runaway debt situation here in the United States, the increasing deficits, the AI job replacements and the consumer credit crisis that is currently unfolding, All will need to be "solved" by turning on the money printers to levels they've never been pushed to before.

Weird times we're living in.

China's Manufacturing Dominance: Why It Matters for the U.S.

In my recent conversation with Lyn Alden, she highlighted how China has rapidly ascended the manufacturing value chain. As Lyn pointed out, China transformed from making "sneakers and plastic trinkets" to becoming the world's largest auto exporter in just four years. This dramatic shift represents more than economic success—it's a strategic power play. China now dominates solar panel production with greater market control than OPEC has over oil and maintains near-monopoly control of rare earth elements crucial for modern technology.

"China makes like 10 times more steel than the United States does... which is relevant in ship making. It's relevant in all sorts of stuff." - Lyn Alden

Perhaps most concerning, as Lyn emphasized, is China's financial leverage. They hold substantial U.S. assets that could be strategically sold to disrupt U.S. treasury market functioning. This combination of manufacturing dominance, resource control, and financial leverage gives China significant negotiating power in any trade disputes, making our attempts to reshoring manufacturing all the more challenging.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Triffin's dilemma, Bitcoin's role in monetary transition, and the energy requirements for rebuilding America's industrial base.

Headlines of the Day

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Final thought...

Building things of value is satisfying.

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Let's dive into the most interesting forward-looking predictions from my recent conversations with industry experts.

Court Cases Against Bitcoin Developers Will Set Critical Precedent for the Industry's Future - Zack Shapiro

The outcome of the Samurai Wallet case will determine whether software developers can be held legally responsible for how users employ their non-custodial Bitcoin tools. Zack Shapiro laid out the stakes clearly: "The precedent that the Bank Secrecy Act can be applied to just software that allows you to move your own money on the Bitcoin blockchain is incredibly dangerous for developers, for node runners, for miners... Basically everyone in the Bitcoin space is at risk here."

According to Shapiro, the government's position in this case fundamentally misunderstands Bitcoin's architecture: "The government says that the defendants transmitted, Keone and Bill transmitted money that they knew belonged to criminals. That's not how a coin join works. The people who transmitted the money are the people that used Whirlpool and the people that used Ricochet. They signed their keys."

Should this prosecution succeed in establishing precedent, Shapiro predicts catastrophic consequences: "If that becomes the law of the land... then basically no actor in the Bitcoin economy is safe. The government's theory is that if you facilitate movement of money, you're a money transmitter, that would reach node runners, wallet developers, miners, lightning routing nodes... whatever tool stack you use, the people who built that are at risk."

With the case continuing despite FinCEN's own position that Samurai's software isn't money transmission, Shapiro believes the resolution will likely come through political rather than legal channels in the next 6-12 months.

Malpractice Around COVID mRNA Vaccines Will Be Exposed Within 2 Years - Dr. Jack Kruse

Dr. Jack Kruse predicts that major revelations about mRNA vaccine damage will force an eventual removal from the market, particularly from childhood vaccination schedules. During our conversation, Dr. Kruse shared alarming statistics: "25,000 kids a month are getting popped with this vaccine. Just so you know, since Trump has been elected, three million doses have been given to children."

According to Dr. Kruse, the scale of this problem dwarfs other health concerns: "The messenger job can drop you like Damar Hamlin, can end your career like JJ Watt, can end your career like all the footballers who've dropped dead on a soccer field." What makes this particularly concerning is the suppression of evidence about the damages, with Dr. Kruse noting that data from Japan showing changes in cancer distribution patterns was pulled, and VAERS data being dismissed despite showing alarming signals.

Dr. Kruse believes the coming years will see an unavoidable reckoning: "If by the end of this year, everybody in unison realized that MRA platform is bad news and it's gone. That to me is... I would tell you the biggest win is to get rid of the MRA platform even before any of the Bitcoin stuff." This suggests he expects significant momentum toward removing these vaccines from circulation by the end of 2025.

Global Economic Reordering Will Create Demand for Neutral Reserve Assets Like Bitcoin and Gold - Lyn Alden

The next two years will be critical in determining whether the United States maintains dollar dominance while navigating Triffin's dilemma. During our conversation, Lyn highlighted how the current administration is attempting to thread a needle between reshoring manufacturing while maintaining the dollar's reserve status - an almost impossible task on extremely fragile ground.

"When they talk about kind of a currency accord to weaken the dollar, they mentioned ideally they wanted to use multi-lateral approaches, but there are some unilateral approaches that they can do, which includes printing dollars to buy reserve assets," Lyn explained when discussing Treasury advisor Stephen Myron's position paper.

As the world potentially moves to a multipolar currency system, Lyn predicts significant demand increases for neutral reserve assets. "The two options on the table at this point are gold and Bitcoin," she noted, but pointed out that "our geopolitical adversaries have been stacking gold for a while and with a special intensity for the last three years." This creates a strategic opportunity for the US, as Bitcoin is "overwhelmingly held in the United States."

Lyn believes this transition is already underway, with the demand for neutral reserve assets like Bitcoin growing as countries seek alternatives to solely dollar-denominated reserves.

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Iran's Shadow Mining Economy: 2 GW of Bitcoin Mined Underground While Legal Operations Struggle

Iran hosts a thriving underground Bitcoin mining industry that has emerged as a critical financial lifeline for citizens grappling with international sanctions and domestic economic controls. This shadow economy dwarfs the legal sector, with an estimated 2 gigawatts of illegal mining operations compared to just 5 megawatts of sanctioned activity.

According to ViraMiner CEO Masih Alavi, approximately 800,000 illegal miners have been discovered and fined by authorities. Yet operations continue in homes, office buildings, and even jewelry stores, where Iranians tap into unmetered electricity to mine Bitcoin, later converting it to stablecoins like USDT for savings and commerce.

While the government has approved permits for about 400 megawatts of legal mining capacity, punitive electricity tariffs and regulatory barriers have strangled legitimate operations. "I blamed the government for this situation," says Alavi. "They introduced flawed policies in the beginning, especially by setting the wrong electricity tariffs for the mining industry."

Despite using obsolete equipment like Antminer S9s and M3s, underground miners remain profitable when converting earnings to Iranian rials, creating an ecosystem that serves an estimated 18 million Iranian cryptocurrency holders.

Looking ahead, Alavi predicts further crackdowns as Iran enters peak electricity demand season, potentially reducing legal mining to zero while underground operations continue to evolve sophisticated detection evasion techniques.

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Marty's Bent

Here's a great presentation from our good friend Michael Goldstein, President of the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute titled Hodl for Good. He gave it earlier this year at the BitBlockBoom Conference, and I think it's something everyone reading this should take 25 minutes to watch. Especially if you find yourself wondering whether or not it's a good idea to spend bitcoin at any given point in time. Michael gives an incredible Austrian Economics 101 lesson on the importance of lowering one's time preference and fully understanding the importance of hodling bitcoin. For the uninitiated, it may seem that the hodl meme is nothing more than a call to hoard bitcoins in hopes of getting rich eventually. However, as Michael points out, there's layers to the hodl meme and the good that hodling can bring individuals and the economy overall.

The first thing one needs to do to better understand the hodl meme is to completely flip the framing that is typically thrust on bitcoiners who encourage others to hodl. Instead of ceding that hodling is a greedy or selfish action, remind people that hodling, or better known as saving, is the foundation of capital formation, from which all productive and efficient economic activity stems. Number go up technology is great and it really matters. It matters because it enables anybody leveraging that technology to accumulate capital that can then be allocated toward productive endeavors that bring value to the individual who creates them and the individual who buys them.

When one internalizes this, it enables them to turn to personal praxis and focus on minimizing present consumption while thinking of ways to maximize long-term value creation. Live below your means, stack sats, and use the time that you're buying to think about things that you want in the future. By lowering your time preference and saving in a harder money you will have the luxury of demanding higher quality goods in the future. Another way of saying this is that you will be able to reshape production by voting with your sats. Initially when you hold them off the market by saving them - signaling that the market doesn't have goods worthy of your sats - and ultimately by redeploying them into the market when you find higher quality goods that meet the standards desire.

The first part of this equation is extremely important because it sends a signal to producers that they need to increase the quality of their work. As more and more individuals decide to use bitcoin as their savings technology, the signal gets stronger. And over many cycles we should begin to see low quality cheap goods exit the market in favor of higher quality goods that provide more value and lasts longer and, therefore, make it easier for an individual to depart with their hard-earned and hard-saved sats. This is only but one aspect that Michael tries to imbue throughout his presentation.

The other is the ability to buy yourself leisure time when you lower your time preference and save more than you spend. When your savings hit a critical tipping point that gives you the luxury to sit back and experience true leisure, which Michael explains is not idleness, but the contemplative space to study, create art, refine taste, and to find what "better goods" actually are. Those who can experience true leisure while reaping the benefits of saving in a hard asset that is increasing in purchasing power significantly over the long term are those who build truly great things. Things that outlast those who build them. Great art, great monuments, great institutions were all built by men who were afforded the time to experience leisure. Partly because they were leveraging hard money as their savings and the place they stored the profits reaped from their entrepreneurial endeavors.

If you squint and look into the future a couple of decades, it isn't hard to see a reality like this manifesting. As more people begin to save in Bitcoin, the forces of supply and demand will continue to come into play. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, there are around 8 billion people on this planet, and as more of those 8 billion individuals decide that bitcoin is the best savings vehicle, the price of bitcoin will rise.

When the price of bitcoin rises, it makes all other goods cheaper in bitcoin terms and, again, expands the entrepreneurial opportunity. The best part about this feedback loop is that even non-holders of bitcoin benefit through higher real wages and faster tech diffusion. The individuals and business owners who decide to hodl bitcoin will bring these benefits to the world whether you decide to use bitcoin or not.

This is why it is virtuous to hodl bitcoin. The potential for good things to manifest throughout the world increases when more individuals decide to hodl bitcoin. And as Michael very eloquently points out, this does not mean that people will not spend their bitcoin. It simply means that they have standards for the things that they will spend their bitcoin on. And those standards are higher than most who are fully engrossed in the high velocity trash economy have today.

In my opinion, one of those higher causes worthy of a sats donation is the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute. Consider donating so they can preserve and disseminate vital information about bitcoin and its foundations.

The Shell Game: How Health Narratives May Distract from Vaccine Risks

In our recent podcast, Dr. Jack Kruse presented a concerning theory about public health messaging. He argues that figures like Casey and Calley Means are promoting food and exercise narratives as a deliberate distraction from urgent vaccine issues. While no one disputes healthy eating matters, Dr. Kruse insists that focusing on "Froot Loops and Red Dye" diverts attention from what he sees as immediate dangers of mRNA vaccines, particularly for children.

"It's gonna take you 50 years to die from processed food. But the messenger jab can drop you like Damar Hamlin." - Dr Jack Kruse

Dr. Kruse emphasized that approximately 25,000 children per day are still receiving COVID vaccines despite concerns, with 3 million doses administered since Trump's election. This "shell game," as he describes it, allows vaccines to remain on childhood schedules while public attention fixates on less immediate health threats. As host, I believe this pattern deserves our heightened scrutiny given the potential stakes for our children's wellbeing.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Big Pharma's alleged bioweapons program, the "Time Bank Account" concept, and how Bitcoin principles apply to health sovereignty.

Headlines of the Day

Aussie Judge: Bitcoin is Money, Possibly CGT-Exempt - via X

JPMorgan to Let Clients Buy Bitcoin Without Direct Custody - via X

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Mubadala Acquires $408.5M Stake in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF - via X

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Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.

Take control. Start with Bitkey.

Use the promo code *“TFTC20”* during checkout for 20% off

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

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Final thought...

I've been walking from my house around Town Lake in Austin in the mornings and taking calls on the walk. Big fan of a walking call.

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[![Hodl Bitcoin For Good](https://www

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Marty's Bent

via me

Don't sleep on what's happening in Japan right now. We've been covering the country and the fact that they've lost control of their yield curve since late last year. After many years of making it a top priority from a monetary policy perspective, last year the Bank of Japan decided to give up on yield curve control in an attempt to reel inflation. This has sent yields for the 30-year and 40-year Japanese government bonds to levels not seen since the early 2000s in the case of the 30-year and levels never before seen for the 40-year, which was launched in 2007. With a debt to GDP ratio that has surpassed 250% and a population that is aging out with an insufficient amount of births to replace the aging workforce, it's hard to see how Japan can get out of this conundrum without some sort of economic collapse.

This puts the United States in a tough position considering the fact that Japan is one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds with more than $1.20 trillion in exposure. If things get too out of control in Japan and the yield curve continues to drift higher and inflation continues to creep higher Japan can find itself in a situation where it's a forced seller of US Treasuries as they attempt to strengthen the yen. Another aspect to consider is the fact that investors may see the higher yields on Japanese government bonds and decide to purchase them instead of US Treasuries. This is something to keep an eye on in the weeks to come. Particularly if higher rates drive a higher cost of capital, which leads to even more inflation. As producers are forced to increase their prices to ensure that they can manage their debt repayments.

It's never a good sign when the Japanese Prime Minister is coming out to proclaim that his country's financial situation is worse than Greece's, which has been a laughing stock of Europe for the better part of three decades. Japan is a very proud nation, and the fact that its Prime Minister made a statement like this should not be underappreciated.

As we noted last week, the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds are drifting higher as well. Earlier today, the 30-year bond yield surpassed 5%, which has been a psychological level that many have been pointed to as a critical tipping point. When you take a step back and look around the world it seems pretty clear that bond markets are sending a very strong signal. And that signal is that something is not well in the back end of the financial system.

This is even made clear when you look at the private sector, particularly at consumer debt. In late March, we warned of the growing trend of buy now, pay later schemes drifting down market as major credit card companies released charge-off data which showed charge-off rates reaching levels not seen since the 2008 great financial crisis. At the time, we could only surmise that Klarna was experiencing similar charge-off rates on the bigger-ticket items they financed and started doing deals with companies like DoorDash to finance burrito deliveries in an attempt to move down market to finance smaller ticket items with a higher potential of getting paid back. It seems like that inclination was correct as Klarna released data earlier today showing more losses on their book as consumers find it extremely hard to pay back their debts.

via NewsWire

This news hit the markets on the same day as the average rate of the 30-year mortgage in the United States rose to 7.04%. I'm not sure if you've checked lately, but real estate prices are still relatively elevated outside of a few big cities who expanded supply significantly during the COVID era as people flooded out of blue states towards red states. It's hard to imagine that many people can afford a house based off of sticker price alone, but with a 7% 30-year mortgage rate it's becoming clear that the ability of the Common Man to buy a house is simply becoming impossible.

via Lance Lambert

The mortgage rate data is not the only thing you need to look at to understand that it's becoming impossible for the Common Man of working age to buy a house. New data has recently been released that highlights That the median home buyer in 2007 was born in 1968, and the median home buyer in 2024 was born in 1968. Truly wild when you think of it. As our friend Darth Powell cheekily highlights below, we find ourselves in a situation where boomers are simply trading houses and the younger generations are becoming indentured slaves. Forever destined to rent because of the complete inability to afford to buy a house.

via Darth Powell

via Yahoo Finance

Meanwhile, Bitcoin re-approached all-time highs late this evening and looks primed for another breakout to the upside. This makes sense if you're paying attention. The high-velocity trash economy running on an obscene amount of debt in both the public and private sectors seems to be breaking at the seams. All the alarm bells are signaling that another big print is coming. And if you hope to preserve your purchasing power or, ideally, increase it as the big print approaches, the only thing that makes sense is to funnel your money into the hardest asset in the world, which is Bitcoin.

via Bitbo

Buckle up, freaks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride. Stay humble, Stack Sats.

Trump's Middle East Peace Strategy: Redefining U.S. Foreign Policy

In his recent Middle East tour, President Trump signaled what our guest Dr. Anas Alhajji calls "a major change in US policy." Trump explicitly rejected the nation-building strategies of his predecessors, contrasting the devastation in Afghanistan and Iraq with the prosperity of countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE. This marks a profound shift from both Republican and Democratic foreign policy orthodoxy. As Alhajji noted, Trump's willingness to meet with Syrian President Assad follows a historical pattern where former adversaries eventually become diplomatic partners.

"This is really one of the most important shifts in US foreign policy to say, look, sorry, we destroyed those countries because we tried to rebuild them and it was a big mistake." - Dr. Anas Alhajji

The administration's new approach emphasizes negotiation over intervention. Rather than military solutions, Trump is engaging with groups previously considered off-limits, including the Houthis, Hamas, and Iran. This pragmatic stance prioritizes economic cooperation and regional stability over ideological confrontation. The focus on trade deals and investment rather than regime change represents a fundamental reimagining of America's role in the Middle East.

Check out the full podcast here for more on the Iran nuclear situation, energy market predictions, and why AI development could create power grid challenges.

Headlines of the Day

Bitcoin Soars to $106K While Bonds Lose 40% Since 2020 - via X

US Senate Advances Stablecoin Bill As America Embraces Bitcoin - via X

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Texas House Debates Bill For State-Run Bitcoin Reserve - via X

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_Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Marty's Bent

If you do one thing today, take the time to spend an hour to watch this YouTube video. As someone creating content who has become very cognizant of the effects of the algorithm and the pressures to cater to it, this video was unexpectedly and incredibly satisfying. We're coming up on the eight year anniversary of this newsletter and the podcast that accompanies it and over that eight year period, the pressures to compete in the world of ever increasing digital soy slop grow at an accelerating rate.

If you've seen our YouTube channel recently, you'll probably notice that we've bent the knee to the thumbnail and title clickbait game in an attempt to get our content out to a wider audience. This is something I've held out on for many years now at this point, but recently became convinced that it's something we simply have to do if we want to get our message out to a wider audience. As I write this, I'm thinking that maybe the fact that we have to do that in the first place says something about the content we're putting out there and whether or not it is actually valuable. But I do think the high velocity trash economy becoming completely saturated with digital soy slop has made it so people who truly want to get their message out have to play that game.

I want to make one thing clear. I certainly do not think I'm an artist, but I do like to think that over the last eight years we've been putting out information via content mediums that is valuable to you, dear reader. However, the informational content we put out there, particularly the audio and video content, is put on platforms where it is forced to compete with others who cater to the lowest common denominators of dopamine hijacking and in-group signaling that draws the masses like moths to a flame.

If you haven't watched the YouTube video yet, which I'm assuming 99.9% of you haven't, this may seem like a nonsensical ramble. So, I'll keep this one short and urge you to go watch the social commentary from comedian Jarrett Moore about the state of art, "content" and its effect on culture as it stands today. I'm assuming this isn't too much of a spoiler alert, but the situation is pretty dire. The world needs better art and people who are willing to support artists who are truly creative and take risks. This has nothing to do with bitcoin. But I think it highlights an interesting part of our society that is deteriorating at a rapid clip. And it's something that all of us should feel compelled to attend to lest we speed run into Idiocracy.

It made me feel uneasy about parts of my approach to this business, and that's a good thing.

Don't forget to buy a Bitkey!

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Create a "Never-Ending Crisis"

In our latest discussion, energy expert Dr. Anas Alhajji described what he called Iran's "never-ending crisis" – a thesis he first published over 20 years ago that has proven remarkably accurate. As Alhajji explained, this crisis persists because of a fundamental contradiction: the U.S. sees any Iranian nuclear program (even peaceful) as strengthening a hostile regime, while Iran views nuclear energy as essential for domestic stability and economic survival.

"Iran is not going to negotiate over the bomb. They want to drag everything for the longest period until they get the bomb." - Dr. Anas Alhajji

What's particularly concerning is Iran's resilience against sanctions. Alhajji detailed how Iran has masterfully circumvented oil export restrictions through China, using a dedicated Chinese bank to process payments outside the international system. Iran's leadership appears willing to endure temporary geopolitical losses in Syria, Lebanon, and potentially Yemen, calculating that obtaining nuclear weapons will fundamentally transform regional politics and their treatment by the United States.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Trump's Middle East strategy, the future of BRICS, and critical challenges facing global energy infrastructure.

Headlines of the Day

Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $500K by 2028 - via X

Lummis: Genius Act Makes US Leader in Digital Asset Policy - via X

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Jake Tapper's Admission on Biden's Decline Sparks Media Ethics Debate - via X

---

Take the First Step Off the Exchange

Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.

Take control. Start with Bitkey.

Use the promo code *“TFTC20”* during checkout for 20% off

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

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Final thought...

My oldest is already at the "faking sick to get out of school" stage and I'm extremely proud.

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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Key Takeaways

In this episode, Bitcoin Core veteran James O’Beirne delivers a sharp critique of Bitcoin’s developmental stagnation, attributing it to political dysfunction, post-fork trauma, and resistance within Bitcoin Core to critical upgrades like CheckTemplateVerify (CTV). He argues that while institutional adoption accelerates, internal innovation is being stifled by misplaced controversies—such as the OP_RETURN policy debate—and a bottlenecked governance model. O’Beirne warns that without urgent progress on scaling solutions like CTV, congestion control, and vaulting systems, Bitcoin risks ossifying and becoming vulnerable to institutional capture. Advocating a more adversarial posture, he suggests forking or building alternative clients to pressure progress but remains hopeful, seeing rising momentum for protocol upgrades from developers outside the Core elite.

Best Quotes

“Everybody has mempool derangement syndrome… it’s such a small issue in the grand scheme of challenges Bitcoin is facing.”

“Bitcoin is as much an experiment in technical human organization as it is a pure technology.”

“If we don’t figure out how to scale trustless Bitcoin self-custody, we’re toast. Right now, only about 2.5% of Americans could actually use Bitcoin monthly in a meaningful way.”

“CTV isn’t sexy—it just works. It keeps getting reinvented because it's so useful. At this point, it’s essential.”

“If Core isn’t going to evaluate these proposals, someone has to. Otherwise, we need to build the social justification for forking.”

“Lightning didn’t scale Bitcoin the way we expected. Let’s stop assuming a silver bullet is coming and start building the bridges ourselves.”

“You could onboard someone with just a phone and a vault… and give them more security than most hardware wallets.”

Conclusion

While Bitcoin gains traction with institutions and governments, its internal development is stalling under political inertia and misplaced focus. James O’Beirne urges the community to prioritize impactful upgrades like CTV and CCV, challenge the bottleneck of Bitcoin Core if needed, and recommit to Bitcoin’s foundational principles. This episode underscores the urgent need to bridge technical and social divides to ensure Bitcoin remains a decentralized, censorship-resistant tool for global value transfer.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:41 - Multi axis issue
5:12 - Core governance
9:41 - Derailing productive discussions
17:05 - Fold & Bitkey
18:32 - CTV
29:24 - Unchained
29:53 - Magnitude of change
41:45 - Covenant proposals
50:16 - CTV benefits
57:56 - Institutional ownership
1:05:26 - Moving forward

Transcript

(00:00) I think I have a somewhat different take than 99% of the people in the discussion. What freaks me out is if you've got Sailor owning half million coins or whatever and Black Rockck owning however many, people forget that Bitcoin is as much an experiment in technical human organization as it is, you know, as a sort of pure technology.
(00:17) The undernowledged reality is I'm actually interested to see if we have like a black swan adoption event from the machines. the risk given the increased scrutiny that things like the strategic Bitcoin reserve introduce there's a shot clock on getting to trustless decentralized value storage technology and I think we really have to be thinking about that combination of physically tired and mentally tired it's also tiresome James it's it's I was looking at that picture today and I was actually going to tweet it absent any caption just because it's
(00:52) a really good Uh yeah, it's a really good epitome of uh of a lot of stuff. But I'm with you, man. I'm tired. It's Friday. Who is it? Is that a just some random Japanese guy? I think it's it's I actually think it's from a documentary about I don't know if it's Africa, but Oh, yes. Yes.
(01:13) It's there's a little bit of a kind of like racy connotation there. Um yeah, the uh it's been long. It was interesting for me. We had Texas Energy Mining Summit here in Austin the beginning of the week. It sort of blended with Bitcoin plus I was over at Bitcoin++ Wednesday and yesterday doing the live desk and obviously topic of conversation is OP return this policy decision and this policy change that that core wants to make and many people are uh angry about and it's just again it's also tiresome.
(01:52) spoke with people on both sides over the two days and I I think I came away more confused than than I entered entered the week like what is the optimal path and somebody who's worked on Bitcoin core worked on Bitcoin core for for many years I've seen you tweeting about it seems like I won't put words in your mouth I'll let you say like what is your perspective on this whole policy debate around op return yeah so in general I think I have a somewhat different take than um 99% of the people in in the discussion which is basically that this
(02:25) is a really stupid discussion um everybody has mempool derangement syndrome like at every layer um and uh what what frustrates me a little bit about the conversation not not to not to uh get like um grumpy right off the bat but it's just it's it's such a small issue in the in the grand scheme of challenges that are being presented to Bitcoin that like spending all this drama on it um is is really a silly use of time and uh kind of emotion, but I can break it down for you.
(03:02) I mean, I think I think like largely the argument is happening on a few layers. Um the change itself technically I'm totally in favor of it. It makes sense. you know, basically the rationale is like, well, you know, um, people want to include exogenous data into the chain. Um, you can't really stop them from doing that.
(03:23) Um and so let's basically minimize the damage by saying hey you know we're going to make it easier for people to actually make use of op return as a data carrier which uh lets us avoid bloat in the UTXO set which is like one of the precious resources we have to take care of for the node.
(03:44) Um, so that's all good and the and the other thing too is that as we've seen with the ordinal stuff is um, you know, data is going to wait make its way into the chain and actually it hurts the whole network when um, there are transactions that most nodes haven't seen yet but they come through a block. Basically that slows down block propagation time.
(04:06) And so the whole idea is if you bring policy closer to the actual consensus rules, closer to the actual transactions that are going to come through and be mined, then you're going to have better network performance. You're going to have lower latency when it comes to actually broadcasting a new block around. So that's like the the sort of technical layer of the discussion.
(04:25) It's it's really a minute non-controversial change if you kind of have fluency with the the technical end of the mempool. Um, but I think there's this this higher layer to the conversation which is sort of a readjudication of spam in Bitcoin. And it's, you know, I think a lot of the the old animal spirits and sentiments are emerging about like, well, we don't like spam.
(04:49) And I think for a lot of people who kind of get lost in the technical details, it's very easy to latch on to the sentiment of I don't like spam. Um and so uh so that makes the sort of ocean knots camp maybe more appealing. Uh so that's yeah that's I guess a summary if you want to jump in anything in particular we can that's what I was saying I came out more confused than I went in.
(05:20) So last week on RHR, hey, I agree. You want policy to be aligned with consensus. Like whether we like it or not, these transactions are getting into blocks. They're non-standard, but they are valid within consensus rules and policy just isn't aligning with that. And like you said, this is disrupting the P2P layer and potentially the fee uh estimation process that that many nodes use, many applications use.
(05:49) And it makes sense to me to align policy with consensus. These things are happening. And if you can make it so Bitcoin full nodes are operating as efficiently and optimally as possible by changing this, it makes sense to me. I think my one like push back was like makes sense to me. However, I think how it was communicated to people and the whole mess with the PR.
(06:12) I think it's I think it's it was it's it's just a tactical error. Like even if this change gets in the the the real benefit of is is not material. You know, nobody was really clamoring for it. um this stuff always, you know, gets the hackles up of everybody who cares at all about, you know, spamming Bitcoin. So, it was a real tactical error.
(06:36) And I think that's that's one place where I mean it's kind of I had a little bit of shot in Freud seeing it because I'm fairly critical of core as a project along you know a variety of axes at this point and it was just kind of a demonstration of the the disconnection and kind of ineptitude of um publicity management kind of on on their end.
(06:58) Um, and so like there's part of me that enjoys seeing that because I I'm kind of convinced that that group has a lot less efficacy than they have credibility. And so to to see that kind of catch up was was interesting. The uh let's dive into that like what you said multiple axes you have a problem. I think we've throughout the years like we've been discussing the issues that Bitcoin like yourself particularly as a Bitcoin core developer for many years trying to get things through not only in the context of the way core works from a governance
(07:35) structure but just the way Bitcoin works as a distributed open source protocol like trying to get changes in and I will say like

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Key Takeaways

In this episode of TFTC, energy economist Anas Alhajji outlines a profound shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump—away from military intervention and toward transactional diplomacy focused on trade, reconstruction, and curbing Chinese and Russian influence in the Middle East. He highlights Trump’s quiet outreach to Syria as emblematic of the U.S.'s strategic flexibility in legitimizing former adversaries when economically beneficial. Alhajji dismisses BRICS as a fractured bloc incapable of rivaling the U.S.-led order and insists the dollar and petrodollar remain dominant. On energy, he warns that despite favorable fundamentals, prices are suppressed by political confusion, underinvestment, and an aging power grid ill-prepared for the AI and urbanization boom. He also contends that Iran is stalling negotiations to buy time for nuclear advancement and that any deal will be superficial. Finally, Alhajji debunks the myth of Trump being pro-oil, noting his long-standing hostility toward the industry and explaining why a repeat of his past energy boom is implausible given today’s financial and structural constraints.

Best Quotes

• “BRICS is a paper tiger. Everything about BRICS is what China does—and that’s it.”
• “The dollar is here to stay. The petrodollar is here to stay. End of story.”
• “Trump hates the oil industry. He always classified it as an enemy.”
• “Energy projects are 30- to 40-year investments, but politicians think in 4-year cycles. That’s where the disconnect lies.”
• “People think shale will boom again. It won’t. The model changed from ‘drill baby drill’ to ‘control baby control.’”
• “The real story of Trump’s trip wasn’t about politics—it was investment, investment, investment.”
• “Without massive investment in the grid and gas turbines, blackouts will become the norm—even in rich countries like Kuwait.”
• “Iran and China have perfected the game of oil exports. Sanctions are just theater at this point.”

Conclusion

Anas Alhajji’s conclusion challenges conventional narratives, arguing that global power is shifting from military dominance to economic leverage, infrastructure investment, and energy control. He presents a nuanced view of U.S. foreign policy under Trump, emphasizing the strategic importance of trade and reconstruction over regime change. As energy demand soars and geopolitical risks mount, Alhajji warns that the real dangers lie not in foreign adversaries, but in policy confusion, infrastructural lag, and complacency—making this episode a crucial listen for anyone seeking to understand the high-stakes intersection of energy, economics, and diplomacy.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:48 - Syria and US diplomacy in Middle East
12:50 - Trump in the Middle East
18:12 - Fold & Bitkey
19:48 - Iran - Nuclear program and PR
33:53 - Unchained
34:22 - Crude markets, trade war and US debt
54:28 - Trump's energy stance
1:05:46 - Energy sector challanges
1:14:44 - Policy recommendations
1:21:18 - AI and bitcoin

Transcript

(00:00) oil prices market fundamentals support higher price than where we are today. But because of this confusion, everyone is scared of low economic growth and that is a serious problem. The US media ignored part of Trump's speech when he said we are not about nation building and they refer to Afghanistan and Iraq.
(00:15) Look at them. This is a criticism of George W. Bush. We have groups that are talking about the demise of the dollar, the rise of bricks. Bricks is a paper tiger. Everything about bricks is what China does and that's it. The dollar is here to stay and the petro dollar is here to stay.
(00:31) The perception is that the Trump administration is cold but the reality Trump hates the oil [Music] indust. How are you? Very good. Very good. Thank you. As you were telling me, you've been a bit sleepd deprived this week trying to keep up with what's going on. Oh, absolutely. I mean, Trump keeps us on our toes uh all the time.
(01:06) In fact, I plan certain things for the weekend and Trump will say something or he will do something and all of a sudden we get busy again. Uh so clients are not going to wait for you until you finish your work. Basically, they want to know what's going on. So what is going on? What what how profound were the events in the Middle East? These are very uh very profound changes basically because it is very clear that if you look at the last 15 years uh and you look at the growth uh in the Middle East, you look at the growth of Saudi Arabia and uh the
(01:41) role of Turkey for example in the region uh it just just amazing be beyond any uh any thoughts. Uh in fact both of them Turkey and Saudi Arabia are part of the G20. Uh so they have economic influence and they have political influence. And of course the icing on the cake for those who are familiar with the region is to recognize the Syrian government and meet with the Syrian uh president.
(02:11) Uh this is a major a major change in economics and politics uh of the Middle East. Let's touch on that Syria uh topic for a while because I think a lot of people here in the United States were a bit shocked at how sort of welcoming President Trump was towards the new Syrian president considering the fact that uh he was considered an enemy not too long ago here in the United States.
(02:42) What first of all it's a fact of life for those who would like to check the history of politics. There were many people around the world who were classified or they were on the terrorism list and then they became friends of the United States or they were became heroes. I mean Nelson Mandela is one of them. You look at Latin America, there are presidents in Latin America who were uh the enemy of the United States and then they became uh uh cooperative with the United States and the United States recognized their governments and the result of their uh elections. Uh so
(03:15) we've seen this historically uh several uh several times around the world and as they say freedom fighters for some basically are the enemies and the terrorists for for others etc. So uh what we've seen that's why the the visit is very important that the recognition of this government is very important. uh the fact on the ground that uh the president of Syria had the power on the ground uh he had the the the people on the ground and he had the control on the ground and whatever he's been he's been doing since he came into power until now
(03:52) he done all the right steps u and people loved him I mean everyone who went to Syria whether the Syrians who left Syria 40 years ago or uh the visitors who are coming to Syria, they will tell you, "We have never seen the Syrian people as happy as we've seen them today, despite the fact that they they live in misery.
(04:17) They don't have um 8 million people without housing. Uh there is barely any electricity in most of the country. There is no internet. There is barely any food. The uh inflation is rampant, etc. But people are happy because they lived in fear for a very long time. And uh the steps they have taken. For example, the uh ministers in the previous government uh are still there and they are still in the housing of the government.
(04:49) They still have the drivers. They still have the cars from the previous government. They still have it until today. So uh they they were classified as enemies before. But all of a sudden now you have a new government that is uh accepting them. Uh so we we see some changes on the ground that are positive and we'll see how these things will go given that the area around them basically has been unstable for a very long time.
(05:17) how because I don't the the news when I was actually it was surreal for me because my first trip to the Middle East was last December when it was literally f flying over Syria to Abu Dhabi when uh um Assad was getting thrown out and it was pretty surreal to be in that region of the world.
(05:43) How as it pertains to like religious minorities within Syria moving forward is there protractions protections there? Um well let me just uh I want to emphasize one point that is very important. What did the interest of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States in Syria if remember Syria was controlled by Iran and was controlled by the Russians.
(06:09) So in a sense it becomes uh kind of an imperative that taking it away from Iran and Russia and not bringing Iran or Russia back is extremely important. Now the Russians are still there and they have their own base but at least they are not bombing the Syrians and not killing them anymore. But the idea here is taking Syria out of Iran and Russia and probably later on if they kick the Russians out, Russians will not have access to the Mediterranean.
(06:37) Uh so there is an interest uh of all parties basically to take Russia out of Iran and um out of uh Syria regardless the country is uh devastated and it creates massive opportunities for US companies on all levels and uh we've seen a contract uh done recently with you mentioned Abu Dhabi uh uh a contract uh uh with the UA a basically to revamp all the Syrian ports and work on the Syrian ports.
(07:13) Uh so such contracts basically uh when you have a country that has nothing and it's completely devastated the whole infrastructure is devastated. Who is going to build it? If the uh what the Chinese, the Russians, so who who are going to build it? So, uh I think there is a a big room for US companies and others basically to come in and uh literally help on one side and make money on the other.
(07:38) Yeah, I think that that's what I'm trying to discern. What was this convoy from the United States to the Middle East this week signali

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Key Takeaways

In this episode, Bram Kanstein delivers a powerful exploration of how studying money for thousands of hours led him to a single, life-changing conclusion: Bitcoin is the key to preserving value and reclaiming personal agency in an increasingly unstable world. Through the lens of a disillusioned millennial generation—raised with technological optimism but betrayed by economic reality—Bram exposes the fiat system as one built on illusion, debt, and diminishing returns. He explains how Bitcoin’s transparent, rule-based design offers a principled alternative, especially for those wired to question systems and seek truth. Describing the fiat economy as a “high-velocity trash system” that undermines innovation and long-term planning, he argues Bitcoin creates the time and space to think, build, and live freely. As AI reshapes the labor market, Bram sees Bitcoin as a vital foundation for individuals to adapt, maintain sovereignty, and thrive in a future defined by rapid technological disruption.

Best Quotes

“Anything that you would want to fix in the world is broken because the money is broken.”

“You’re stacking nothing. Literal paper.”

“You have to red pill before you orange pill.”

“The only thing you need to do is move to the other money that they cannot mess with.”

“One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. That’s the whole point.”

“Millennials are primed to understand Bitcoin.”

“Bitcoin lets you get out of the rat race and start walking your own path.”

“The fiat mindset is a zero-sum game. In Bitcoin, value is created.”

“We should stop asking how to value Bitcoin—and start asking how to value everything else in Bitcoin.”

“Even with a master’s in economics, people still don’t understand what money is.”

Conclusion

This episode delivers a powerful call to rethink everything we assume about money, arguing that understanding Bitcoin is less about profit and more about reclaiming personal agency in a world defined by uncertainty. Bram Kanstein shows how asking fundamental questions—like “What is money?”—can lead to a deeper sense of purpose and autonomy. As AI and systemic instability accelerate, Bitcoin emerges not just as sound money, but as a life tool for intentional living, long-term thinking, and individual sovereignty.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:36 - INTJ bitcoiners
4:58 - The millennial headspace is primed for bitcoin
7:25 - Bitcoin gives time and space to build
15:29 - Fold & Bitkey
17:05 - Seeing systemic problems
26:25 - Bitcoin’s positive feedback loop
33:55 - Recognize your agency
37:58 - Unchained
38:27 - Fiat money creates uncertainty
44:41 - What is money?
54:04 - Money and energy
1:03:43 - Bitcoin allows growth
1:09:02 - Bitcoin/AI
1:31:34 - Optimistic note

Transcript

(00:00) Let's say you're a millennial and mid-30s and you want to retire in 30 years. If you calculate the amount of dollar, pound the euro, yen units. You need way more units of that money than you think right now. They are funding pension funds, but the pension funds are using that money for the people that are actually retiring.
(00:17) No one knows about money. They don't know how debt works, how finance works. But that's kind of how it's designed, right? Like that's what eventually keeps the Ponzi alive. And I just started with the question, what do you think happens if you call the bank and say like, hey, can I get 100 or 200k in cash? Man, you got an editor like in house.
(00:39) That's That's pro. That's uh it's because this setup I'm so far away from the computer. I just need somebody to hit the button. Okay. Okay. the extent the extent of of Logan's job extends far beyond just hitting the button. But yeah, INTJ I think uh I think it was as we rear into what looks to be another bull market.
(01:05) I think getting back to first principles and discussing the challenges of studying and understanding Bitcoin, it's important to to highlight the archetype of individuals who have studied fallen down the rabbit hole and really dedicated their lives to Bitcoin. And this INTJ cohort that exists within Bitcoin seems pretty material apparently. Yeah.
(01:35) I mean, I have many moments where I just realize that I'm lucky that my brain is wired in a certain way, you know. I feel like crazy blessed that I figured out this Bitcoin thing, you know, and that when I ran into certain realizations along the way in my Bitcoin journey that I was like, hm, you know, how does this actually work? you know, do I actually understand the systems I'm participating in, the things that I believe, you know, the the the the people that I abstracted um or or outsourced certain responsibilities to to take care of, for example, my money
(02:10) in the bank. You know, I I think um being wired in a certain way definitely helps in grasping Bitcoin to a degree where you're like, okay, this is the only thing I need to pay attention to, you know, in my life. And yeah, we we jokingly started talking about this because I have the hat here, but there was this um I think it was like like a Twitter poll actually or someone shared it on Twitter and this is already like two or three years old where where someone investigated these MyersBriggs um personality types and I think there's
(02:42) only like 2% of people that have INTJ but like 20% of Bitcoiners have that personality type. So it um it apparently helps. So yeah, I just I just quickly Googled it actually. It says uh the INTJ is the architect. It's a personality type with the introverted intuitive thinking and judging traits. These thoughtful tacticians love perfecting the details of life, applying creativity and rationality to everything they do.
(03:09) I think the rationality part here is what um what uh I think helps you to to gro Bitcoin eventually. Yeah, it reminds me of I forget what the study was, but postco it was a similar distribution of just like 2% of people were highly skeptical of what was going on with the lockdowns and the attack on bodily autonomy.
(03:38) And there was a study that was done about I forget it was bees or some type of fly that they they have like the horde of um the horde of the particular fly I think it was bees has like 2% act as these sort of alarm bells that are on the outside the outskirts of the community and they'll start communicating like hey something's wrong here and people the other flies or bees will be skeptical at first but then eventually uh the alarm bells will be proven to be right that there was some sort of danger around the corner. That's fascinating.
(04:09) Yeah. Yeah, that's fascinating. I I think we're not that special eventually, you know, like we think we have all this autonomy, but but um yeah, we're we're just wired in a certain way. And I think I don't know where you want to take this conversation, but I think, you know, part of growing up and being an adult is figuring out, you know, how do I actually work and how do I work with how I work, you know? Yeah. No, it is.
(04:36) And as I get older, creep into my mid-30s, which is hard hard to come to grips with, it is uh really falling back on like, all right, I I feel like I have a good perspective on the world and my place in it, and how do I just optimize to make sure I'm aligning my my work and my career, I guess, if you call it that, with what I'm passionate about. Yeah.
(05:00) Well, I also think that is actually why our generation, you know, my my podcast is Bitcoin for millennials. I think uh the millennials are primed to understand Bitcoin. You know, we are in this life phase where big things happen, you know, starting a family or settling somewhere or or making big career moves or decide Yeah.
(05:25) like deciding what am I going to spend like the next 10 20 years on and uh I think it's an interesting phase actually I I don't know how that was for you but but for me like the the 30s were really where I dove more and more into Bitcoin like got got that stronger conviction and also yeah kind of was invited to go further down that that rabbit hole you know and like how I see it now is that that Bitcoin is really the foundation for the rest of my life, you know, like it it gives me time and space to look forward and enthusiasm, you know, like I sometimes lurk on the
(06:01) millennial subreddit, you know, or the finance sub subreddit. And many people in our generation are very nihilistic, you know, they're very unsure about the future. Like some people aren't even having kids because they think they cannot afford it, you know. And uh whenever I read that, I just think like, yeah, I I don't really have those things.
(06:22) But I know it's because of Bitcoin, you know. I I know that Bitcoin gives me, yeah, like I said, the time and space to figure out what's next, like what should I focus on? Like it gives time and space to to try out stuff, to build something, you know, to to to really attempt at at doing something. Where I see many people that don't see that, they are more in the consumer type, you know, like they they just spend the money that's worth the most today, you know, like that's what they're incentivized to do. Yeah.
(06:49) And is is that why you started Bitcoin for millennials is to number one put the put the message out there. Millennials come listen to this. One of you Yes. that is trying to educate you about this. But because this is something I think about a lot is somebody's like dead smack in the middle of the millennial generation and has observed many of the things you just described in my own life, my own network.
(07:13) And that's part of the reason why this podcast exists. And um what I'm trying to do at TFTC is just try to figure out a way to reach into the minds of millennials, hopefully c

@ 90152b7f:04e57401

U.S. troops would enforce peace under Army study

The Washington Times - September 10, 2001

by Rowan Scarborough

https://www.ord.io/70787305 (image) https://www.ord.io/74522515 (text)

An elite U.S. Army study center has devised a plan for enforcing a major Israeli-Palestinian peace accord that would require about 20,000 well-armed troops stationed throughout Israel and a newly created Palestinian state.
 There are no plans by the Bush administration to put American soldiers into the Middle East to police an agreement forged by the longtime warring parties. In fact, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld is searching for ways to reduce U.S. peacekeeping efforts abroad, rather than increasing such missions.
But a 68-page paper by the Army School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) does provide a look at the daunting task any international peacekeeping force would face if the United Nations authorized it, and Israel and the Palestinians ever reached a peace agreement.


Located at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., the School for Advanced Military Studies is both a training ground and a think tank for some of the Army’s brightest officers. Officials say the Army chief of staff, and sometimes the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ask SAMS to develop contingency plans for future military operations. During the 1991 Persian Gulf war, SAMS personnel helped plan the coalition ground attack that avoided a strike up the middle of Iraqi positions and instead executed a “left hook” that routed the enemy in 100 hours.


The cover page for the recent SAMS project said it was done for the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But Maj. Chris Garver, a Fort Leavenworth spokesman, said the study was not requested by Washington.
“This was just an academic exercise,” said Maj. Garver. “They were trying to take a current situation and get some training out of it.”
 The exercise was done by 60 officers dubbed “Jedi Knights,” as all second-year SAMS students are nicknamed.


The SAMS paper attempts to predict events in the first year of a peace-enforcement operation, and sees possible dangers for U.S. troops from both sides.
 It calls Israel’s armed forces a “500-pound gorilla in Israel. Well armed and trained. Operates in both Gaza . Known to disregard international law to accomplish mission. Very unlikely to fire on American forces. Fratricide a concern especially in air space management.”


Of the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, the SAMS officers say: “Wildcard. Ruthless and cunning. Has capability to target U.S. forces and make it look like a Palestinian/Arab act.”


On the Palestinian side, the paper describes their youth as “loose cannons; under no control, sometimes violent.” The study lists five Arab terrorist groups that could target American troops for assassination and hostage-taking.
 The study recommends “neutrality in word and deed” as one way to protect U.S. soldiers from any attack. It also says Syria, Egypt and Jordan must be warned “we will act decisively in response to external attack.”


It is unlikely either of the three would mount an attack. Of Syria’s military, the report says: “Syrian army quantitatively larger than Israeli Defense Forces, but largely seen as qualitatively inferior. More likely, however, Syrians would provide financial and political support to the Palestinians, as well as increase covert support to terrorism acts through Lebanon.”
Of Egypt’s military, the paper says, “Egyptians also maintain a large army but have little to gain by attacking Israel.”


The plan does not specify a full order of battle. An Army source who reviewed the SAMS work said each of a possible three brigades would require about 100 Bradley fighting vehicles, 25 tanks, 12 self-propelled howitzers, Apache attack helicopters, Kiowa Warrior reconnaissance helicopters and Predator spy drones.
 The report predicts that nonlethal weapons would be used to quell unrest.
U.S. European Command, which is headed by NATO’s supreme allied commander, would oversee the peacekeeping operation. Commanders would maintain areas of operation, or AOs, around Nablus, Jerusalem, Hebron and the Gaza strip.
 The study sets out a list of goals for U.S. troops to accomplish in the first 30 days. They include: “create conditions for development of Palestinian State and security of “; ensure “equal distribution of contract value or equivalent aid” that would help legitimize the peacekeeping force and stimulate economic growth; “promote U.S. investment in Palestine”; “encourage reconciliation between entities based on acceptance of new national identities”; and “build lasting relationship based on new legal borders and not religious-territorial claims.”


Maj. Garver said the officers who completed the exercise will hold major planning jobs once they graduate. “There is an application process” for students, he said. “They screen their records, and there are several tests they go through before they are accepted by the program. The bright planners of the future come out of this program.”


James Phillips, a Middle East analyst at the Heritage Foundation, said it would be a mistake to put peacekeepers in Israel, given the “poor record of previous monitors.”
 “In general, the Bush administration policy is to discourage a large American presence,” he said. “But it has been rumored that one of the possibilities might be an expanded CIA role.”
“It would be a very different environment than Bosnia,” said Mr. Phillips, referring to America’s six-year peacekeeping role in Bosnia-Herzegovina. “The Palestinian Authority is pushing for this as part of its strategy to internationalize the conflict. Bring in the Europeans and Russia and China. But such monitors or peacekeeping forces are not going to be able to bring peace. Only a decision by the Palestinians to stop the violence and restart talks could possibly do that.”

<https://www.ord.io/70787305>

<<https://www.ord.io/74522515>>

@ 502ab02a:a2860397

น้ำนมมนุษย์ที่ไม่ง้อมนุษย์ หรือนี่กำลังจะกลายเป็นเรื่องจริงเร็วกว่าที่เราคิดนะครับ

ในยุคที่อุตสาหกรรมอาหารหันหลังให้กับปศุสัตว์ ไม่ว่าจะด้วยเหตุผลด้านสิ่งแวดล้อม จริยธรรม หรือความยั่งยืน “น้ำนมจากห้องแล็บ” กำลังกลายเป็นแนวหน้าของการปฏิวัติอาหาร โดยเฉพาะเมื่อบริษัทหนึ่งจากสิงคโปร์นามว่า TurtleTree ประกาศอย่างชัดเจนว่า พวกเขากำลังจะสร้างโปรตีนสำคัญในน้ำนมมนุษย์ โดยไม่ต้องมีมนุษย์แม่เลยแม้แต่น้อย

TurtleTree ก่อตั้งในปี 2019 โดยมีเป้าหมายอันทะเยอทะยานคือการผลิตโปรตีนในนมแม่ให้ได้ผ่านเทคโนโลยีที่เรียกว่า precision fermentation โดยใช้จุลินทรีย์ที่ถูกดัดแปลงพันธุกรรมให้ผลิตโปรตีนเฉพาะ เช่น lactoferrin และ human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs) ซึ่งเป็นองค์ประกอบล้ำค่าที่พบในน้ำนมมนุษย์แต่แทบไม่มีในนมวัว หรือผลิตภัณฑ์นมทั่วไป

โปรตีนตัวแรกที่ TurtleTree ประสบความสำเร็จในการผลิตคือ LF+ หรือ lactoferrin ที่เลียนแบบโปรตีนในนมแม่ ซึ่งมีหน้าที่ช่วยระบบภูมิคุ้มกันของทารก ต่อต้านแบคทีเรีย และช่วยให้ร่างกายดูดซึมธาตุเหล็กได้ดีขึ้น โปรตีนนี้เป็นหนึ่งในหัวใจของนมแม่ ที่บริษัทต้องการนำมาใช้ในอุตสาหกรรมนมผงเด็กและอาหารเสริมสำหรับผู้ใหญ่ ล่าสุดในปี 2024 LF+ ได้รับการรับรองสถานะ GRAS (Generally Recognized As Safe) จากองค์การอาหารและยาสหรัฐฯ (FDA) อย่างเป็นทางการ เป็นหมุดหมายสำคัญที่บอกว่า นี่ไม่ใช่แค่ไอเดียในแล็บอีกต่อไป แต่กำลังกลายเป็นผลิตภัณฑ์เชิงพาณิชย์จริง

เบื้องหลังของโปรเจกต์นี้คือการลงทุนกว่า 30 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐจากกลุ่มทุนทั่วโลก รวมถึงบริษัท Solar Biotech ที่จับมือกับ TurtleTree ในการขยายกำลังการผลิตเชิงอุตสาหกรรมในสหรัฐอเมริกา โดยตั้งเป้าว่าจะสามารถผลิตโปรตีนเหล่านี้ได้ในระดับราคาที่แข่งขันได้ภายในไม่กี่ปีข้างหน้า

สิ่งที่น่าสนใจคือ TurtleTree ไม่ได้หยุดแค่ lactoferrin พวกเขายังวางแผนพัฒนา HMO ซึ่งเป็นน้ำตาลเชิงซ้อนชนิดพิเศษที่มีอยู่เฉพาะในน้ำนมแม่ เป็นอาหารเลี้ยงแบคทีเรียดีในลำไส้ทารก ช่วยพัฒนาระบบภูมิคุ้มกันและสมอง ปัจจุบัน HMOs เริ่มเป็นที่นิยมในวงการ infant formula แต่การผลิตยังจำกัดและมีต้นทุนสูง การที่ TurtleTree จะนำเทคโนโลยี precision fermentation มาใช้ผลิต HMO จึงถือเป็นความพยายามในการลดช่องว่างระหว่าง "นมแม่จริง" กับ "นมผงสังเคราะห์"

ทั้งหมดนี้เกิดขึ้นภายใต้แนวคิดใหม่ของอุตสาหกรรมอาหารที่เรียกว่า "functional nutrition" หรือโภชนาการที่ออกแบบเพื่อทำงานเฉพาะทาง ไม่ใช่แค่ให้พลังงานหรือโปรตีน แต่เล็งเป้าหมายเฉพาะ เช่น เสริมภูมิคุ้มกัน ซ่อมแซมสมอง หรือฟื้นฟูร่างกาย โดยมีรากฐานจากธรรมชาติ แต่ใช้เทคโนโลยีสมัยใหม่ในการผลิต

แม้จะฟังดูเป็นความก้าวหน้าทางวิทยาศาสตร์ที่น่าตื่นเต้น แต่น้ำเสียงที่ดังก้องในอีกมุมหนึ่งก็คือคำถามเชิงจริยธรรม TurtleTree กำลังสร้างโปรตีนที่มีอยู่เฉพาะในมนุษย์ โดยอาศัยข้อมูลพันธุกรรมของมนุษย์เอง แล้วนำเข้าสู่ระบบอุตสาหกรรมเพื่อการค้า คำถามคือ เมื่อใดที่การจำลองธรรมชาติจะกลายเป็นการผูกขาดธรรมชาติ? ใครควรเป็นเจ้าของข้อมูลพันธุกรรมของมนุษย์? และถ้าวันหนึ่งบริษัทใดบริษัทหนึ่งสามารถควบคุมการผลิต “นมแม่จำลอง” ได้แต่เพียงผู้เดียว นั่นจะส่งผลต่อเสรีภาพของสังคมในมุมไหนบ้าง?

นักชีวจริยธรรมหลายคน เช่น ดร.ซิลเวีย แคมโปเรซี จาก King's College London ตั้งข้อสังเกตไว้ว่า เทคโนโลยีแบบนี้อาจแก้ปัญหาการเข้าถึงนมแม่ในพื้นที่ห่างไกลหรือในกลุ่มแม่ที่ให้นมไม่ได้ แต่ขณะเดียวกันก็อาจกลายเป็นการสร้าง "ระบบอาหารทางเลือก" ที่ควบคุมโดยบริษัทไม่กี่ราย ที่มีอำนาจเกินกว่าผู้บริโภคจะตรวจสอบได้

เมื่อเทคโนโลยีสามารถจำลองสิ่งที่เคยสงวนไว้เฉพาะธรรมชาติ และมนุษย์ได้ใกล้เคียงจนแทบแยกไม่ออก บางทีคำถามที่ควรถามอาจไม่ใช่แค่ว่า “มันปลอดภัยหรือไม่?” แต่อาจต้องถามว่า “เราไว้ใจใครให้สร้างสิ่งนี้แทนธรรมชาติ?” เพราะน้ำนมแม่เคยเป็นสิ่งที่มาจากรักและชีวิต แต่วันนี้มันอาจกลายเป็นเพียงสิ่งที่มาจากห้องแล็บและโมเลกุล... และนั่นคือสิ่งที่เราต้องคิดให้เป็น ก่อนจะกินให้ดี เต่านี้มีบุญคุณอันใหญ่หลวงงงงงงง

เสริมจุดน่าสนใจให้ครับ KBW Ventures ถือเป็นผู้ลงทุนรายใหญ่ที่สุดใน TurtleTree Labs โดยมีบทบาทสำคัญในหลายรอบการระดมทุนของบริษัท KBW Ventures เป็นบริษัทลงทุนจากสหรัฐอาหรับเอมิเรตส์ ก่อตั้งโดย สมเด็จพระราชโอรสเจ้าชายคาเล็ด บิน อัลวาลีด บิน ตาลาล อัล ซาอุด (HRH Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal Al Saud) ในรอบการระดมทุน Pre-A มูลค่า 6.2 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ ซึ่งปิดในเดือนธันวาคม 2020 KBW Ventures ได้ร่วมลงทุนพร้อมกับ Green Monday Ventures, Eat Beyond Global และ Verso Capital . นอกจากนี้ เจ้าชาย Khaled ยังได้เข้าร่วมเป็นที่ปรึกษาให้กับ TurtleTree Labs เพื่อสนับสนุนการขยายตลาดและกลยุทธ์การเติบโตของบริษัท

ซึ่งในตัว KBW Ventures นั้น เป็นบริษัทลงทุนที่มุ่งเน้นการสนับสนุนเทคโนโลยีที่ยั่งยืนและนวัตกรรมในหลากหลายอุตสาหกรรม เช่น เทคโนโลยีชีวภาพ (biotech), เทคโนโลยีพลังงานสะอาด, เทคโนโลยีการเงิน (fintech), เทคโนโลยีการขนส่ง, และเทคโนโลยีอาหาร (food tech) โดยเฉพาะ และในส่วนของเจ้าชาย Khaled มีความสนใจอย่างลึกซึ้งในด้านเทคโนโลยีอาหาร โดยเฉพาะในกลุ่มโปรตีนทางเลือก เช่น Beyond Meat ซึ่งเป็นการลงทุนที่สะท้อนถึงความมุ่งมั่นชัดเจนในการส่งเสริมอาหารที่ยั่งยืนและมีจริยธรรมครับ และแน่นอนเลยว่า โดยมีส่วนร่วมในรอบระดมทุนหลายครั้งของ Beyond Meat รวมถึงตอนที่ Beyond Meat เข้าตลาดหุ้น Nasdaq ครั้งแรกในปี 2019

เจ้าชาย Khaled เชื่อมั่นว่าอาหารทางเลือกแบบพืชจะถูกลงและแพร่หลายมากขึ้น จนอาจถูกกว่าราคาเนื้อสัตว์จากสัตว์จริงภายในปี 2025 ตามข้อมูลที่ได้มาแสดงว่า ปีนี้นี่หว่าาาาาาาาาา

#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

\> “Huge swathes of people…spend their entire working lives performing tasks they secretly believe do not really need to be performed.”\ \> — David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs

\> “We are in a system that must grow — forever — or it collapses. But technology, by its very nature, is deflationary.”\ \> — Jeff Booth, The Price of Tomorrow

We live in a strange paradox: Technological progress is supposed to make life easier, yet many people feel more overworked and less fulfilled than ever. While artificial intelligence and automation promise unprecedented productivity, it’s not yet clear whether that will mean fewer bullshit jobs — or simply new kinds of them.

What Is a Bullshit Job?

In his landmark book Bullshit Jobs, the late anthropologist David Graeber exposed a haunting truth: millions of jobs exist not because they are needed, but because of economic, political, or psychological inertia. These are roles that even the workers themselves suspect are meaningless — created to serve appearances, maintain hierarchies, or justify budgets.

Think:

• Middle managers approving other middle managers' reports

• Employees running meetings to prepare for other meetings

• Corporate roles invented to interface with poorly implemented AI tools

Bullshit work isn’t the absence of technology. It’s often the outcome of resisting what technology could actually do — in order to preserve jobs, status, or growth targets.

Booth’s Warning: The System is Rigged Against Deflation

In The Price of Tomorrow, entrepreneur Jeff Booth argues that the natural state of a tech-driven economy is deflation — things getting better, cheaper, and faster.

But our global financial system is built on perpetual inflation and debt expansion. Booth writes:

\> “We are using inflationary monetary policy to fight deflationary technological forces.”

Even as AI and automation could eliminate unnecessary jobs and increase abundance, our system requires jobs — or the illusion of them — to keep the economy expanding. So bullshit jobs persist, and even evolve.

AI as a Deflationary Force

AI is rapidly accelerating the deflation Booth described:

• Tasks that used to take hours now take seconds

• Whole creative and administrative processes are being streamlined

• Labor can scale digitally — one tool used globally at near-zero marginal cost

Embraced honestly, this could mean fewer hours, lower costs, and more prosperity. But again, we are not optimized for truth — we are optimized for GDP growth.

So we invent new layers of AI-enhanced bullshit:

• Prompt engineers writing prompts for other prompt engineers

• "Human-in-the-loop" validators reviewing AI output they don’t understand

• Consultants building dashboards that nobody reads

Toward a Post-Bullshit Future

Here’s the real opportunity: If we embrace deflation as a blessing — not a threat — and redesign our systems around truth, efficiency, and abundance, we could:

• Eliminate meaningless labor

• Reduce the cost of living dramatically

• Liberate people to create, heal, build, and rest

This means more than economic reform — it’s a philosophical shift. We must stop equating “employment” with value. That’s where Bitcoin and open-source tools point: toward a world where permissionless value creation is possible without the bloat of gatekeeping institutions.

Final Thought: Tech Won’t Save Us, But Truth Might

Technology, left to its own logic, tends toward freedom, efficiency, and abundance. But our current systems suppress that logic in favor of growth at all costs — even if it means assigning millions of people to do work that doesn’t need doing.

So will AI eliminate bullshit jobs?

It can. But only if we stop pretending we need them.

And for those of us who step outside the wage-work loop, something remarkable happens. We begin using these tools to create actual value — not to impress a boss, but to solve real problems and serve real people.

Recently, I built a tool using AI and automation that helps me cross-post content from Nostr to LinkedIn, Facebook, and X. It wasn’t for a paycheck. It was about leverage — freeing time, expanding reach, and creating a public record of ideas.\ You can check it out here:\ 👉 <https://tinyurl.com/ywxuowl5>

Will it help others? I don’t know yet.\ But it helped me — and that’s the point.

Real value creation doesn’t always begin with a business plan. Sometimes it starts with curiosity, conviction, and the courage to build without permission.

Maybe the future of work isn’t about scaling jobs at all.\ Maybe it’s about reclaiming time — and using these tools to build lives of meaning.

---

If this resonates — or if you’ve found your own way to reclaim time and create value outside the wage loop — zap me and share your story. Let’s build the post-bullshit economy together. ⚡

@ 94215f42:7681f622

The promise of AI is intoxicating: slash operational costs by 50-80%, achieve software-style margins on service businesses and and watch enterprise value multiply overnight.

But this initial value creation contains a hidden trap that could leave businesses worth less than when they started. Understanding the "Value Trap" is key to navigating a transition to an AI economy.

What is the Value Trap?

Whilst the value trap is forward looking and somewhat theoretical at this point, there are strong financial incentives to drive investments (many $bns of are looking at the transformation opportunity) that mean this should be taken very seriously.

The Value Trap unfolds in distinct phases:

Phase 1: Status Quo A typical service business operates with 100 units of revenue and 90 units of cost, generating 10 units of profit, representing a standard 10% margin. A bog standard business we can all relate to, long term customers locked in, market fit a distant memory, but growth is hard at this point.

Phase 2: Cost Reduction Early AI adopters slash operational expenses from 90 to 20 units while maintaining 100 units of revenue. This is the very real promise when moving to a "Human at the Edge" model that we'll unpack in a future article. Suddenly, they're generating 80 units of profit at an 8x increase that can easily add multiple to the enterprise value! A venture style return on a business previously struggling for growth.

Phase 3: Growth Phase With massive profit margins comes pricing power. These businesses can undercut competitors while maintaining healthy margins, driving rapid revenue growth. Having removed the human constraint on scaling and the additional overheads and complexity this introduces we see seemingly unlimited expansion. The brakes are truly off at this point for early adopters to expand total market share.

Phase 4: Competition Emerges The extraordinary returns attract competitors. It's important to note there is no technical moat here, other businesses implement similar AI strategies, often from your own staff who may have been let go, new entrants launch AI-native operations, and pricing power erodes.

Phase 5: Mean Reversion After 3-7 years (our best guess given current investment interest in transformation led PE), competitive pressure drives revenue down from 100 to 25 units while costs remain at 20. The business ends up with similar margins to where it started but at much lower absolute revenue, potentially destroying enterprise value.

What you've done is just massively reduced costs in this industry by displacing jobs and those individuals can turn around and compete. You incentivise the competition which erodes your pricing power

Why This Pattern is Inevitable

The Value Trap isn't pure speculation, but based on market dynamics playing out given a set of financial incentives. We believe there are several key forces that make this cycle almost guaranteed:

The Arbitrage is Too Attractive When businesses can achieve "venture returns with no product-market fit risk," capital will flood in. Private equity and Venture Capital firms are already raising funds specifically to acquire traditional service businesses and apply AI transformation strategies .

Low Technical Barriers Unlike previous technological advantages, AI implementation doesn't require significant technical moats. Much of the technology is open source, and the real barrier is process redesign thinking rather than proprietary technology.

The "One Player" Principle In any market, it only takes one competitor to implement AI-native processes to force everyone else to adapt. You either "play the game or you get left behind".

Capital Abundance With global money supply expanding and traditional investment opportunities yielding lower returns, the combination of proven product-market fit and dramatic cost reduction potential represents an irresistible opportunity for investors.

Strategic Response for SMEs: The Netflix Model

Small and medium enterprises actually have a significant advantage in navigating the Value Trap, but they need to act strategically and start moving now.

Embrace the Incubation Approach Rather than gutting your existing business, adopt Netflix's strategy: build an AI-native version of your business alongside your current operations. This approach manages risk while positioning for the future.

The answer here is why not both. you don't necessarily have to gut your current business, but you should be thinking about what does my business look like in five years and how do I transition into that.

Leverage Your Natural Advantages Small businesses can adapt faster than large enterprises. While a 20,000-person company faces "political shockwaves" when reducing workforce, a 10-person business can double revenue without anyone noticing. You can focus on growth rather than painful cost-cutting.

Remove Growth Constraints Early AI removes the traditional constraint where "adding the next person" represents a significant capital investment. Small businesses can scale efficiently once they've redesigned their processes around AI-native workflows, avoid further capital outlay and scaling without increasing complexity in operations.

Focus on Local Networks For various reasons associated with the commoditisation of intelligence, we believe the future favours "hyper-localised" businesses serving customers who "know, like, and trust" them. As intelligence becomes commoditised, human relationships become more valuable, not less.

Strategic Response for Capital Allocators

For private equity and venture capital firms, the Value Trap presents both enormous opportunity and significant risk.

Target the Right Businesses Look for businesses with strong persistent moats that will slow mean reversion:

• Strong brand and customer relationships

• High customer acquisition costs in the industry

• Regulatory barriers to entry

• Capital-intensive startup requirements

• Long-term contracts and switching costs

Master the Timing The key is capturing value during the expansion phase and exiting before mean reversion accelerates, or finding an appropriate time arbitrage solution to retain value (see below). The optimal point if you're a capital allocator is almost when you've extracted the most cost out of the business.

Consider Hybrid Strategies Rather than just gutting existing businesses, consider acquiring for distribution and customer base while building AI-native operations alongside traditional ones. This provides multiple exit strategies and reduces execution risk.

Bitcoin: The Time Arbitrage Solution

Whenever I've talked to anybody about AI, my first point of advice is just buy bitcoin.

This isn't just evangelism, so much as a recognition of where you would want to hold value as the Value Trap plays out. In essence the value trap generates an arbitrage opportunity, hige profits are pulled forwards short-term balooning the balance sheet, but the second order consequences of this change risk destroying the value you just created!

We believe alongside rapid competition leading to price for services collapsing, the mass job displacement leads to political pressure for intervention.

This could take several forms, but UBI, mortgage bailouts, unemployment extensions, seizure of existing property.

"All roads lead to money printing," as Pete notes in Good Stuff 02 .

During Weimar Republic hyperinflation, "the cost of a newspaper in year five was the same nominal figure as all of the money that existed in year four." While extreme, this illustrates how quickly monetary systems can shift as inflation and money supply inflation begins to run.

To resolve these issues, Bitcoin allows you to conduct arbitrage across time in an asset that is inflation resistant (fixed supply), hard to seize, has no counter party risk (if someone holds your gold, stocks, cash they can take it without asking) and transportable. Capturing value today and preserving it through monetary system changes protecting against the second and third-order effects of massive economic disruption, that AI represents.

Opportunity, Not Fear: The Renaissance Ahead

The Value Trap isn't a reason to avoid AI, it's a roadmap for navigating inevitable change strategically.

The Entrepreneurial Renaissance This could be a Renaissance for entrepreneurs, if you're entrepreneurial minded, this is an amazing time to be alive because there's opportunity that exists in all fields and the barriers to entry have never been lower.

Liberation from Busy Work The displacement of administrative and routine cognitive work frees humans for higher-value creation.

Democratisation of Intelligence When you can "purchase intelligence in buckets of $0.02 API calls," the barriers to starting and scaling businesses collapse. Individual entrepreneurs can build businesses that previously required large teams, with much lower complexity and risk.

Cost Reduction Benefits Everyone The ultimate outcome of the Value Trap cycle benefits consumers through dramatically lower prices for goods and services.

"Who doesn't want cheaper stuff? Why don't we just reduce the cost of everything massively?"

Conclusion: Embrace the High Agency Era

The Value Trap represents a fundamental shift from employment-based to entrepreneurship-based wealth creation. Rather than fearing job displacement, we should prepare for "the age of the entrepreneur" a high agency era.

The businesses and individuals who thrive will be those who:

• Understand the cycle and position accordingly

• Focus on unique value creation rather than routine processing or middleman models

• Build local networks and relationships

• Preserve wealth through the monetary transition

• Embrace building and creating unique value

If you are high agency, you can make anything happen.

The Value Trap isn't just about AI transforming business, it won't do this on its own, its a description of how humans will use this technology to generate and capture value.

The future belongs to builders, creators, and entrepreneurs who can navigate transition periods and emerge stronger. The Value Trap is the map, use it wisely.

This article draws heavily on discussion between myself and business partner Andy in Episode 02 of The Good Stuff, if you prefer listening try that :)

@ 90152b7f:04e57401

<https://www.ord.io/72990614>

[Analytical & Intelligence Comments]\ \ “On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.”\ \ Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT Email-ID 13332210 Date 2011-05-04 16:26:59\ From <jetdrive@earthlink.net> To <responses@stratfor.com> CROYDON KEMP sent a\ message using the contact form at <https://www.stratfor.com/contact\>\\ Mossad ran 9/11 Arab "hijacker" terrorist operation\ \ By Wayne Madsen\ \ British intelligence reported in February 2002 that the Israeli Mossad ran the Arab hijacker cells that were later blamed by the U.S. government's 9/11 Commission for carrying out the aerial attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. WMR has received details of the British intelligence report which was suppressed by the government of then-Prime Minister Tony Blair.\ \ A Mossad unit consisting of six Egyptian- and Yemeni-born Jews infiltrated "Al Qaeda" cells in Hamburg (the Atta-Mamoun Darkanzali cell), south Florida, and Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates in the months before 9/11. The Mossad not only infiltrated cells but began to run them and give them specific orders that would eventually culminate in their being on board four regularly-scheduled flights originating in Boston, Washington Dulles, and Newark, New Jersey on 9/11.\ \ The Mossad infiltration team comprised six Israelis, comprising two cells of three agents, who all received special training at a Mossad base in the Negev Desert in their future control and handling of the "Al Qaeda" cells. One Mossad cell traveled to Amsterdam where they submitted to the operational control of the Mossad's Europe Station, which operates from the El Al complex at Schiphol International Airport. The three-man Mossad unit then traveled to Hamburg where it made contact with Mohammed Atta, who believed they were sent by Osama Bin Laden. In fact, they were sent by Ephraim Halevy, the chief of Mossad.\ \ The second three-man Mossad team flew to New York and then to southern Florida where they began to direct the "Al Qaeda" cells operating from Hollywood, Miami, Vero Beach, Delray Beach, and West Palm Beach. Israeli "art students," already under investigation by the Drug Enforcement Administration for casing the offices and homes of federal law enforcement officers, had been living among and conducting surveillance of the activities, including flight school training, of the future Arab "hijacker" cells, particularly in Hollywood and Vero Beach.\ \ In August 2001, the first Mossad team flew with Atta and other Hamburg "Al Qaeda" members to Boston. Logan International Airport's security was contracted to Huntleigh USA, a firm owned by an Israeli airport security firm closely connected to Mossad — International Consultants on Targeted Security – ICTS. ICTS's owners were politically connected to the Likud Party, particularly the Netanyahu faction and then-Jerusalem mayor and future Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. It was Olmert who personally interceded with New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani to have released from prison five Urban Moving Systems employees, identified by the CIA and FBI agents as Mossad agents. The Israelis were the only suspects arrested anywhere in the United States on 9/11 who were thought to have been involved in the 9/11 attacks.\ \ The two Mossad teams sent regular coded reports on the progress of the 9/11 operation to Tel Aviv via the Israeli embassy in Washington, DC. WMR has learned from a Pentagon source that leading Americans tied to the media effort to pin 9/11 on Arab hijackers, Osama Bin Laden, and the Taliban were present in the Israeli embassy on September 10, 2001, to coordinate their media blitz for the subsequent days and weeks following the attacks. It is more than likely that FBI counter-intelligence agents who conduct surveillance of the Israeli embassy have proof on the presence of the Americans present at the embassy on September 10. Some of the Americans are well-known to U.S. cable news television audiences.\ \ In mid-August, the Mossad team running the Hamburg cell in Boston reported to Tel Aviv that the final plans for 9/11 were set. The Florida-based Mossad cell reported that the documented "presence" of the Arab cell members at Florida flight schools had been established.\ \ The two Mossad cells studiously avoided any mention of the World Trade Center or targets in Washington, DC in their coded messages to Tel Aviv. Halevy covered his tracks by reporting to the CIA of a "general threat" by an attack by Arab terrorists on a nuclear plant somewhere on the East Coast of the United States. CIA director George Tenet dismissed the Halevy warning as "too non-specific." The FBI, under soon-to-be-departed director Louis Freeh, received the "non-specific" warning about an attack on a nuclear power plant and sent out the information in its routine bulletins to field agents but no high alert was ordered.\ \ The lack of a paper trail pointing to "Al Qaeda" as the masterminds on 9/11, which could then be linked to Al Qaeda's Mossad handlers, threw off the FBI. On April 19, 2002, FBI director Robert Mueller, in a speech to San Francisco's Commonwealth Club, stated: "In our investigation, we have not uncovered a single piece of paper — either here in the United States, or in the treasure trove of information that has turned up in Afghanistan and elsewhere — that mentioned any aspect of the September 11 plot."\ \ The two Mossad "Al Qaeda" infiltration and control teams had also helped set up safe houses for the quick exfiltration of Mossad agents from the United States. Last March, WMR reported: "WMR has learned from two El Al sources who worked for the Israeli airline at New York’s John F. Kennedy airport that on 9/11, hours after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) grounded all civilian domestic and international incoming and outgoing flights to and from the United States, a full El Al Boeing 747 took off from JFK bound for Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion International Airport. The two El Al employee sources are not Israeli nationals but legal immigrants from Ecuador who were working in the United States for the airline. The flight departed JFK at 4:11 pm and its departure was, according to the El Al sources, authorized by the direct intervention of the U.S. Department of Defense. U.S. military officials were on the scene at JFK and were personally involved with the airport and air traffic control authorities to clear the flight for take-off. According to the 9/11 Commission report, Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta ordered all civilian flights to be grounded at 9:45 am on September 11." WMR has learned from British intelligence sources that the six-man Mossad team was listed on the El Al flight manifest as El Al employees.\ \ WMR previously reported that the Mossad cell operating in the Jersey City-Weehawken area of New Jersey through Urban Moving Systems was suspected by some in the FBI and CIA of being involved in moving explosives into the World Trade Center as well as staging "false flag" demonstrations at least two locations in north Jersey: Liberty State Park and an apartment complex in Jersey City as the first plane hit the World Trade Center's North Tower. One team of Urban Moving Systems Mossad agents was arrested later on September 11 and jailed for five months at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. Some of their names turned up in a joint CIA-FBI database as known Mossad agents, along with the owner of Urban Moving Systems, Dominik Suter, whose name also appeared on a "Law Enforcement Sensitive" FBI 9/11 suspects list, along with the names of key "hijackers," including Mohammed Atta and Hani Hanjour, as well as the so-called "20th hijacker," Zacarias Moussaoui.\ \ Suter was allowed to escape the United States after the FBI made initial contact with him at the Urban Moving Systems warehouse in Weehawken, New Jersey, following the 9/11 attacks. Suter was later permitted to return to the United States where he was involved in the aircraft parts supply business in southern Florida, according to an informe3d source who contacted WMR. Suter later filed for bankruptcy in Florida for Urban Moving Systems and other businesses he operated: Suburban Moving & Storage Inc.; Max Movers, Inc.; Invsupport; Woodflooring Warehouse Corp.; One Stop Cleaning LLC; and City Carpet Upholstery, Inc. At the time of the bankruptcy filing in Florida, Suter listed his address as 1867 Fox Court, Wellington, FL 33414, with a phone number of 561 204-2359.\ \ From the list of creditors it can be determined that Suter had been operating in the United States since 1993, the year of the first attack on the World Trade Center. In 1993, Suter began racking up American Express credit card charges totaling $21,913.97. Suter also maintained credit card accounts with HSBC Bank and Orchard Bank c/o HSBC Card Services of Salinas, California, among other banks. Suter also did business with the Jewish Community Center of Greater Palm Beach in Florida and Ryder Trucks in Miami. Miami and southern Florida were major operating areas for cells of Israeli Mossad agents masquerading as "art students," who were living and working near some of the identified future Arab "hijackers" in the months preceding 9/11.\ \ ABC's 20/20 correspondent John Miller ensured that the Israeli connection to "Al Qaeda's" Arab hijackers was buried in an "investigation" of the movers' activities on 9/11. Anchor Barbara Walters helped Miller in putting a lid on the story about the movers and Suter aired on June 21, 2002. Miller then went on to become the FBI public affairs spokesman to ensure that Mueller and other FBI officials kept to the "Al Qaeda" script as determined by the Bush administration and the future 9/11 Commission. But former CIA chief of counter-terrorism Vince Cannistraro let slip to ABC an important clue to the operations of the Mossad movers in New Jersey when he stated that the Mossad agents "set up or exploited for the purpose of launching an intelligence operation against radical Islamists in the area, particularly in the New Jersey-New York area." The "intelligence operation" turned out to have been the actual 9/11 attacks. And it was no coincidence that it was ABC's John Miller who conducted a May 1998 rare interview of Osama Bin Laden at his camp in Afghanistan. Bin Laden played his part well for future scenes in the fictional "made-for-TV" drama known as 9/11.\ \ WMR has also learned from Italian intelligence sources that Mossad's running of "Al Qaeda" operatives did not end with running the "hijacking" teams in the United States and Hamburg. Other Arab "Al Qaeda" operatives, run by Mossad, were infiltrated into Syria but arrested by Syrian intelligence. Syria was unsuccessful in turning them to participate in intelligence operations in Lebanon. Detailed information on Bin Laden's support team was offered to the Bush administration, up to days prior to 9/11, by Gutbi al-Mahdi, the head of the Sudanese Mukhabarat intelligence service. The intelligence was rejected by the Biush White House. It was later reported that Sudanese members of "Al Qaeda's" support network were double agents for Mossad who had also established close contacts with Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and operated in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Eritrea, as well as Sudan. The Mossad connection to Al Qaeda in Sudan was likely known by the Sudanese Mukhabarat, a reason for the rejection of its intelligence on "Al Qaeda" by the thoroughly-Mossad penetrated Bush White House. Yemen had also identified "Al Qaeda" members who were also Mossad agents. A former chief of Mossad revealed to this editor in 2002 that Yemeni-born Mossad "deep insertion" commandos spotted Bin Laden in the Hadhramaut region of eastern Yemen after his escape from Tora Bora in Afghanistan, following the U.S. invasion.\ \ French intelligence determined that other Egyptian- and Yemeni-born Jewish Mossad agents were infiltrated into Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates as radical members of the Muslim Brotherhood. However, the "Muslim Brotherhood" agents actually were involved in providing covert Israeli funding for "Al Qaeda" activities. On February 21, 2006, WMR reported on the U.S. Treasury Secretary's firing by President Bush over information discovered on the shady "Al Qaeda" accounts in the United Arab Emirates: "Banking insiders in Dubai report that in March 2002, U.S. Secretary of Treasury Paul O’Neill visited Dubai and asked for documents on a $109,500 money transfer from Dubai to a joint account held by hijackers Mohammed Atta and Marwan al Shehhi at Sun Trust Bank in Florida. O'Neill also asked UAE authorities to close down accounts used by Al Qaeda . . . . The UAE complained about O’Neill’s demands to the Bush administration. O’Neill’s pressure on the UAE and Saudis contributed to Bush firing him as Treasury Secretary in December 2002 " O'Neill may have also stumbled on the "Muslim Brotherhood" Mossad operatives operating in the emirates who were directing funds to "Al Qaeda."\ \ After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Sharjah's ruler, Sultan bin Mohammed al-Qasimi, who survived a palace coup attempt in 1987, opened his potentate to Russian businessmen like Viktor Bout, as well as to financiers of radical Muslim groups, including the Taliban and "Al Qaeda."\ \ Moreover, this Israeli support for "Al Qaeda" was fully known to Saudi intelligence, which approved of it in order to avoid compromising Riyadh. The joint Israeli-Saudi support for "Al Qaeda" was well-known to the Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah-based aviation network of the now-imprisoned Russian, Viktor Bout, jailed in New York on terrorism charges. The presence of Bout in New York, a hotbed of Israeli intelligence control of U.S. federal prosecutors, judges, as well as the news media, is no accident: Bout knows enough about the Mossad activities in Sharjah in support of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, where Bout also had aviation and logistics contracts, to expose Mossad as the actual mastermind behind 9/11. Bout's aviation empire also extended to Miami and Dallas, two areas that were nexuses for the Mossad control operations for the "Al Qaeda" flight training operations of the Arab cell members in the months prior to 9/11.\ \ Bout's path also crossed with "Al Qaeda's" support network at the same bank in Sharjah, HSBC. Mossad's phony Muslim Brotherhood members from Egypt and Yemen controlled financing for "Al Qaeda" through the HSBC accounts in Sharjah. Mossad's Dominik Suter also dealt with HSBC in the United States. The FBI's chief counter-terrorism agent investigating Al Qaeda, John O'Neill, became aware of the "unique" funding mechanisms for Al Qaeda. It was no mistake that O'Neill was given the job as director of security for the World Trade Center on the eve of the attack. O'Neill perished in the collapse of the complex.Mossad uses a number of Jews born in Arab countries to masquerade as Arabs. They often carry forged or stolen passports from Arab countries or nations in Europe that have large Arab immigrant populations, particularly Germany, France, Britain, Denmark, Sweden, and the Netherlands.\ \ For Mossad, the successful 9/11 terrorist "false flag" operation was a success beyond expectations. The Bush administration, backed by the Blair government, attacked and occupied Iraq, deposing Saddam Hussein, and turned up pressure on Israel's other adversaries, including Iran, Syria, Pakistan, Hamas, and Lebanese Hezbollah. The Israelis also saw the U.S., Britain, and the UN begin to crack down on the Lebanese Shi'a diamond business in Democratic Republic of Congo and West Africa, and with it, the logistics support provided by Bout's aviation companies, which resulted in a free hand for Tel Aviv to move in on Lebanese diamond deals in central and west Africa.\ \ Then-Israeli Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu commented on the 9/11 attacks on U.S. television shortly after they occurred. Netanyahu said: "It is very good!" It now appears that Netanyahu, in his zeal, blew Mossad's cover as the masterminds of 9/11.\ \ Wayne Madsen is a Washington, DC-based investigative journalist, author and syndicated columnist. He has written for several renowned papers and blogs.\ \ Madsen is a regular contributor on Russia Today. He has been a frequent political and national security commentator on Fox News and has also appeared on ABC, NBC, CBS, PBS, CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, and MS-NBC. Madsen has taken on Bill O’Reilly and Sean Hannity on their television shows. He has been invited to testifty as a witness before the US House of Representatives, the UN Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, and an terrorism investigation panel of the French government.\ \ As a U.S. Naval Officer, he managed one of the first computer security programs for the U.S. Navy. He subsequently worked for the National Security Agency, the Naval Data Automation Command, Department of State, RCA Corporation, and Computer Sciences Corporation.\ \ Madsen is a member of the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ), Association for Intelligence Officers (AFIO), and the National Press Club. He is a regular contributor to Opinion Maker

<https://www.ord.io/72990614>

@ 3eba5ef4:751f23ae

Crypto Insights

Introducing Generalized Program Composition and Coin Delegation into Bitcoin

Joshua Doman proposed a proof-of-concept called Graftleaf, aiming to achieve generalized program composition and delegation in Taproot in a simple and secure way. Graftleaf is a new Taproot leaf version (0xc2) that uses the annex to perform delegation. It adds two key features:

• Composition: The ability to sequentially execute zero, one, or multiple witness programs, including a locking script.

• Delegation: The ability to add additional spending conditions at signing time, which can include arbitrary combinations of programs and scripts.

This design overcomes the limitations of previous proposals by supporting complex script composition and delegation, promising backward compatibility, improved privacy and fungibility with the existing P2TR addresses.

Why OP_CHECKCONTRACTVERIFY (CCV) Will Replace OP_VAULT

A post mainly discusses the current status of Bitcoin script opcode OP_VAULT (BIP-345) and the possibility of it being replaced by OP_CHECKCONTRACTVERIFY (CCV, BIP-443). Key factors include:

• CCV is a more general version of OP_VAULT, inheriting some features such as amount modes and deferred (cross-input) checks.

• CCV supports replacing multiple script tapleaf nodes, has a simpler interface, and a lighter script interpreter implementation.

The author also points out CCV’s shortcomings and possible future extensions:

• Currently, there is a lack of supporting documentation and tools, and the BIP is not yet fully completed.

• A VAULT-decorator opcode may be needed to implement certain advanced features, such as requiring collateral lockup when unvaulting, or adding some rate-limiting behavior. These features are currently difficult to achieve.

Despite this, CCV remains a better foundation for building vault functionality.

Enabling Recursive Covenants via Self-Replication

Bram Cohen proposed adding a few simple opcodes to Bitcoin Script to enable recursive covenants in a natural and straightforward way. He illustrated with examples that a practical and useful script can be achieved through Quine, without other more complex tricks; developers writing recursive covenants must be aware of the importance of this approach.

UTXO Set Report from Mempool Research: Nearly Half of Bitcoin UTXOs Are Less Than 1,000 Sats

During the OP_RETURN debate in April-May 2025, the impact of inserting arbitrary data into transactions on the UTXO set sparked much discussion. In this report, Mempool studied the UTXO set, highlighting the fragmentation and bloat issues, especially due to small transactions and data embedding, which increase the storage and validation burden for node operators.

Key findings include:

• Severe Bloat: Currently, about 49% of UTXOs are less than 1,000 satoshis (about $1). Most of these use Taproot address format and may be related to data embedding schemes (like Ordinals) or related transfer mechanisms. Although these UTXOs can usually be spent, before they are, they increase the storage and validation burden for all node operators.

• Significant Proportion of Inscription-Related UTXOs: About 30% of UTXOs are related to inscription.

• Large Number of Long-Unspent UTXOs: There are over 100,000 old Counterparty UTXOs using Pay to Multisig (p2ms) scripts, which have existed for over 10 years. Although they make up a small proportion of the total (about 173 million UTXOs), they are a typical example of UTXO bloat.

• Taproot Becomes the Most Common UTXO Type: Among all UTXO types, Taproot (p2tr) has the highest proportion at 34.2%, followed by traditional p2pkh (28.8%) and p2wpkh (26.5%). However, in terms of total value stored, Taproot’s share is relatively low, indicating it is mainly used for small transactions or data embedding.

The report concludes by mentioning that as the UTXO sets continue to grow, Utreexo and SwiftSync are two scaling methods for maintaining Bitcoin’s accessibility to a wide range of node operators.

Visualization of Bitcoin Mainnet Data

mainnet-observer, built and maintained by developer @0xB10C, visualizes multiple data points from the Bitcoin mainnet, including:

• Mining a single block currently requires over ~500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (500 zeta or 5×10²³) hash attempts.

• Over 42 BTC are now permanently lost in provably unspendable OP_RETURN outputs.

• Daily updated “Mining Centralization Index” (with proxy pools)

• Bitcoin mining is currently highly centralized, with 6 pools producing and mining over 95% of block templates.

Path Queries: Addressing Payment Reliability and Routing Limitations

brh28 initiated a discussion on Lightning Network payment routing, focusing on issues like liquidity uncertainty and inefficient path discovery. He proposed a new path query mechanism—allowing nodes to dynamically share information through path queries, fostering a more decentralized routing ecosystem. This can improve the success rate of large payments and reduce reliance on a completely synced channel graph. Although there are still some privacy concerns, this method provides nodes with a controllable information disclosure mechanism and is expected to revolutionize current payment routing approaches.

Bitlayer and Sui Achieve Trust-Minimized BitVM Bridge

Bitlayer and Sui integrated the BitVM Bridge, launching Peg-BTC (YBTC)—bridging native Bitcoin to the Sui ecosystem via BitVM Bridge. BitVM Bridge is a trust-minimized bridge powered by Bitlayer and supported by the advanced BitVM smart contract framework.

Ark Protocol Litepaper

Ark recently released its litepaper: Ark: A UTXO-based Transaction Batching Protocol, outlining its technical foundation. As an innovative Bitcoin scaling protocol, Ark enables off-chain transaction execution while allowing users full control over their funds. This is achieved by introducing “virtual UTXOs” (VTXOs), allowing users to transact off-chain while retaining the ability to unilaterally exit to the Bitcoin main chain. Coordinated by an operator who batches user activities into on-chain commitments, Ark achieves high transaction throughput with minimal on-chain footprint. This provides Bitcoin with a simple and user-friendly scaling solution that offers a practical path for Layer 2 solutions that are inefficient or costly to execute on the main chain.

Top Reads on Blockchain and Beyond

List of Known Real-World Bitcoin Attack Incidents

Here is a list of real-world attacks against Bitcoin/crypto asset holders over the years.

The Internet Capital Market: Free Avenue for Developers, or Another Wave of FOMO?

This post discusses Internet Capital Markets (ICM)—decentralized platforms where funds flow directly to app builders and creators. ICM combines crowdfunding, token issuance, and equity speculation, eliminating the need for VCs, banks, or app stores. In 2025, more independent developers are issuing app tokens directly via X and tools like Believe and Launchcoin, attracting mass investment.

ICM Proponents argue this model breaks traditional funding barriers, making innovation more democratic and accessible; while critics warn that ICM is becoming a hotbed for hype and short-term speculation, with many projects lacking real products or long-term value. The author believes whether ICM can become the next milestone for Web3 hinges on whether it can break free from the cycle of “speculation becomes product traction” and deliver real user value and sustained innovation.

@ 3eba5ef4:751f23ae

加密洞见

在比特币中引入通用程序组合与币委托机制

Joshua Doman 提出了一个 Graftleaf 的概念验证，旨在用一种简单而安全的方法在 Taproot 中实现通用程序组合和代笔委托。Graftleaf 是一个新的 Taproot 叶子版本（0xc2），使用附件来执行委托。Graftleaf 增加了两个关键功能：

• 组合：按顺序执行零个、一个或多个见证程序的能力，包括一个锁定脚本。

• 委派：在签名时添加其他支出条件的能力，可以包括程序和脚本的任意组合。

它们旨在通过支持复杂的脚本组合和委托来克服以前提案的局限性，承诺提高隐私性、可替代性以及与现有 P2TR 地址的向后兼容性。

为什么说 OP_CHECKCONTRACTVERIFY (CCV) 将会取代 OP_VAULT

帖子主要讨论了比特币脚本操作码 OP_VAULT（BIP-345）的现状，及其被OP_CHECKCONTRACTVERIFY（CCV，BIP-443）取代的可能。重要因素有：

• CCV 是 OP_VAULT 的更通用版本，继承了部分功能，如金额模式（amount modes）、延迟跨输入检查（deferred cross-input checks）。

• CCV支持替换多个脚本叶子节点（tapleaf），接口更简洁，脚本解释器实现更轻量。

同时作者也指出 CCV 的不足与未来可能的扩展：

• 当前缺少部分配套文档和工具，BIP 尚未完全完成。

• 可能需要 VAULT-decorator 操作码来实现某些高级功能，如解锁金库时必须抵押锁定、速率限制等。

尽管如此，CCV仍然是构建金库功能的更优基础。

通过自复制方式启用递归契约

Bram Cohen 提出通过向比特币脚本添加一些简单的操作码，以一种自然而直接的方式实现递归契约（recursive covenants）。他通过例子说明，一个实用且有用的脚本通过 Quine 自复制就可以实现，无需其他更复杂的技巧；编写递归契约的开发者必须意识到该方式的重要性。

Mempool Research 发布 UTXO 集的报告：比特币中近一半 UTXO 金额小于 1000 聪

在 2025 年 4 至 5 月期间的 OP_RETURN 大辩论中，将任意数据插入交易对 UTXO 集的影响的问题引发了大量讨论。Mempool 在这份报告中，对 UTXO 集进行了研究，强调了比特币 UTXO 集合碎片化和膨胀的问题，特别是由于小额交易和数据嵌入导致的 UTXO 增长，增加了节点运营者的存储和验证负担。关键结论有：

• UTXO 集合的碎片化严重：目前约有 49% 的 UTXO 金额低于 1000 聪（约合 1 美元），这些小额 UTXO 大多采用 Taproot 地址格式，可能与数据嵌入方案（如 Ordinals 铭文）或相关的转移机制有关。尽管这些 UTXO 通常可被花费，但在被使用之前，它们会增加所有节点运营者的存储和验证负担。

• 铭文相关的 UTXO 占比显著：约 30% 的 UTXO 与铭文相关。

• 存在大量长期未动用的 UTXO：有超过 10 万个使用 Pay to Multisig (p2ms) 脚本的旧 Counterparty UTXO，且存在超过 10 年。尽管在总数（约 1.73 亿个 UTXO）中所占比例较小，但依然是 UTXO 膨胀的典型问题。

• Taproot 成为最常见的 UTXO 类型：在所有 UTXO 类型中，Taproot（p2tr）占比最高，为 34.2%，其次是传统的 p2pkh（28.8%）和 p2wpkh（26.5%）。但是从 UTXO 所存储的总价值来看，Taproot 的占比相对较低，表明其主要用于小额交易或数据嵌入。

报告最后也提到，对于继续增长的 UTXO 集，Utreexo 和 SwiftSync 是两种对保持比特币对广泛节点运营者可访问性的扩容方法。

比特币网络各项数据的可视化呈现

mainnet-observer 由开发者 @0xB10C 搭建并维护，将比特币链的多项数据呈现出来，可以看到：

• 目前挖掘一个区块所需要的平均哈希尝试：超过 ~500000000000000000000000000（500 zeta 或 5×10²³）次

• 超过 42 个 BTC 现在永远丢失在可证明无法花费的 OP_RETURN 输出中

• 每日更新的「挖矿中心化指数」（带有代理池）

• 比特币挖矿高度集中，6 个矿池生产并挖掘了超过 95%的区块模板（截止 2025 年 4 月）

闪电网络路径查询：解决支付可靠性和路由限制

brh28 发起了关于闪电网络路由支付的讨论，聚焦「流动性的不确定性」（liquidity uncertainty）和路径发现效率低的问题，提出了一种新的路径查询机制——允许节点以路径查询的形式，实现动态信息共享，推动了一个更加分布式的路由生态。这可以提高了大额支付的成功率，并减少对完整通道图的依赖。尽管在隐私方面仍存在一定担忧，但该方法为节点提供了一种可控的信息披露机制，有望革新现有的支付路由方式。

Bitlayer 和 Sui 实现了信任最小化的 BitVM 桥

Bitlayer 和 Sui 整合了 BitVM Bridge，推出 Peg-BTC（YBTC）——通过 BitVM Bridge 将原生比特币桥接到 Sui 生态中。BitVM Bridge 是一个由 Bitlayer 提供支持并由先进的 BitVM 智能合约框架支持的信任最小化桥。

Ark 协议的正式规范

Ark 近日发布 Litepaper: Ark: A UTXO-based Transaction Batching Protocol，阐述其技术基础。作为一种新颖的比特币扩容协议，Ark 实现了链下交易执行，同时让用户能完全掌控自己的资金。这一点通过引入「虚拟UTXO」（VTXO）得以实现，用户在链下交易，同时保留单方面退出至比特币主链的能力。Ark 同一个 operator 协作，将用户操作打包成链上承诺，在保持极小链上负担的前提下实现高交易吞吐量。这为比特币提供了一种简单易用的扩容方案，也为那些在主链上执行效率低下或成本过高的二层方案提供了落地空间。

精彩无限，不止于链

已知真实发生过的比特币攻击事件列表

这里列出了历年来在真实世界中发生过的、针对比特币/加密资产拥有者的攻击事件。

互联网资本市场：是开发者的自由通道，还是另一波 FOMO?

帖子讨论了互联网资本市场（ ICM, Internet Capital Markets ），即去中心化平台——资金直接流向应用程序构建者和创建者。ICM 集众筹、代币发行和股权投机于一体，无需VC、银行或应用商店。2025年，越来越多独立开发者通过 X 和 Believe、Launchcoin 等工具直接发行应用代币，吸引大众投资。ICM 的支持者认为，这种模式打破了传统融资壁垒，让创新更民主、门槛更低；但批评者警告，ICM 正沦为炒作和短期投机的温床，许多项目缺乏实际产品和长期价值。作者认为，ICM 模式能否成为 Web3 的下一个里程碑，关键在于其能否走出「投机成了产品增长动力」（speculation becomes product traction）的怪圈，实现真正的用户价值和持续创新。

@ 74fb3ef2:58adabc7

Suppose you have a small mom-and-pop shop selling bananas, your bananas are of the highest quality, you plant the banana trees yourself, you water them daily, take great care of everything, and still select only the top 1% of bananas to sell.

Your customers love it, there's no place where they can get better bananas, but due to the fact that you spend so much time, your bananas have to be more expensive, so despite the higher quality, you don't make as much money as you think you should; surely you can get a little more of the market if you adopt some of the strategies that work for your competitors.

So you look across the street, and what do you know? Their bananas are of significantly worse quality than yours, but they're not just selling bananas, they're selling apples too, so you think to yourself, "what if I sold apples? Maybe my apples won't be the best in the market, but nobody can beat my bananas!"

You start planting apple trees, and after a while you're able go sell slightly better than average apples, but by doing so you neglect your bananas ever so slightly.

Most of your existing customers don't notice, you still have the best bananas in town, they don't notice the slight drop in quality. And now that you're selling apples too you're making more money, and more customers come to you.

But you notice that there's a new store now that's selling oranges, and people are buying them. So surely you need oranges too, so you can make some extra money.

You plant a few orange trees, but find yourself spending so much time tending to the oranges and apples that you can't devote the same time and love to your bananas.

You are making a bit of extra cash from the new customers, business is going well, but you don't have time for anything else anymore. You no free time anymore, you are overworked and your health is getting worse.

But you can't stop now that business is going well, you are making so much more, yeah maybe you don't have the same bananas anymore, but you do have slightly above average apples and oranges that have attracted so many customers.

You suddenly fall ill, you've overworked yourself and you are stuck at a hospital for a while.

When you come back to your store, a few of your customers are back, but not all of them, so you think of more ideas, mandarins, kiwi, watermelons, you can grow it all, but you're gonna hire a bunch of people to help you so you don't fall ill again.

One thing leads to another and you are making more money than ever, but strangely you don't hear your customers praising your bananas anymore.

So you take one of your bananas, peel it, and as you taste it, a wave of disappointment hits you.

Your bananas are now just as bad as everyone else's; you gave in to the tyranny of the marginal customer.

You make a lot of money now, but your flagship product is long gone, you are now just another Fruitseller.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Šta je Bitcoin?
2. Šta Bitcoin može da učini za vas?
3. Zašto ljudi kupuju Bitcoin?
4. Da li je vaš novac siguran u dolarima, kućama, akcijama ili zlatu?
5. Šta je bolje za štednju od dolara, kuća i akcija?
6. Po čemu se Bitcoin razlikuje od ostalih valuta?
7. kako Bitcoin spašava svet?
8. Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?

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Bitcoin čini da štednja novca bude kul – i praktična – ponovo. Ovaj članak objašnjava kako i zašto.

Šta je Bitcoin?

Bitcoin se naziva digitalno zlato, mašina za istinu, blockchain, peer to peer mreža čvorova, energetski ponor i još mnogo toga. Bitcoin je, u stvari, sve ovo. Međutim, ova objašnjenja su često toliko tehnička i suvoparna, da bi većina ljudi radije gledala kako trava raste. Što je najvažnije, ova objašnjenja ne pokazuju kako Bitcoin ima bilo kakve koristi za vas.

iPod nije postao kulturološka senzacija jer ga je Apple nazvao „prenosnim digitalnim medijskim uređajem“. Postao je senzacija jer su ga zvali “1,000 pesama u vašem džepu.”

Ne zanima vas šta je Bitcoin. Vas zanima šta on može da učini za vas.

Baš kao i Internet, vaš auto, vaš telefon, kao i mnogi drugi uređaji i sistemi koje svakodnevno koristite, vi ne treba da znate šta je Bitcoin ili kako to funkcioniše da biste razumeli šta on može da učini za vas.

Šta Bitcoin može da učini za vas?

Bitcoin može da sačuva vaš teško zarađeni novac.

Bitcoin je stekao veliku pažnju u 2017. i 2018. godini zbog svoje spekulativne upotrebe. Mnogi ljudi su ga kupili nadajući se da će se obogatiti. Cena je naglo porasla, a zatim se srušila. Ovo nije bio prvi put da je Bitcoin uradio to. Međutim, niko nikada nije izgubio novac držeći bitcoin duže od 3,5 godine – ćak i ako je kupio na apsolutnim vrhovima.

Zašto Bitcoin konstantno raste? Ljudi počinju da shvataju koliko je Bitcoin moćan, kao način uštede novca u svetu u kojem je ’novac’ poput dolara, eura i drugih nacionalnih valuta dizajniran da gubi vrednost.

Ovo čini Bitcoin odličnom opcijom za štednju novca na nekoliko godina ili više. Bitcoin je bolji od štednje novca u dolarima, akcijama, nekretninama, pa čak i u zlatu.

Zato pokušajte da zaboravite na trenutak na razumevanje blockchaina, digitalne valute, kriptografije, seed fraza, novčanika, rudarstva i svih ostalih nerazumljivih termina. Za sada, razgovarajmo o tome zašto ljudi kupuju Bitcoin: razlog je prostiji nego što vi mislite.

Zašto ljudi kupuju Bitcoin?

Naravno, svako ima svoj razlog za kupovinu Bitcoin-a. Jedan od razloga, koji verovatno često čujete, je taj što mu vrednost raste. Ljudi žele da se obogate. Uskoče kao spekulanti, krenu u vožnju i najverovatnije ih prodaju ubrzo nakon kupovine.

Međutim, čak i kada cena krene naglo prema gore i strmoglavo padne nazad, mnogi ljudi ostanu i nakon tog pada. Otkud mi to znamo? Broj aktivnih novčanika dnevno, koji je otprilike sličan broju korisnika Bitcoin-a, nastavlja da raste. Takođe, nakon svakog balona u istoriji Bitcoin-a, cena se nikada ne vraća na svoju cenu pre balona. Uvek ostane malo višlja. Bitcoin se penje, a svaka masovna spekulativna serija dovodi sve više i više ljudi.

Broj aktivnih Bitcoin novčanika neprekidno raste

„Aktivna adresa“ znači da je neko tog dana poslao Bitcoin transakciju. Donji grafikon je na logaritamskoj skali.

Izvor: Glassnode

Cena Bitcoina se neprestano penje

Kroz istoriju Bitcoin-a možemo videti divlje kolebanje cena, ali nakon svakog balona, cena se ostaje višlja nego pre. Ovo je cena Bitcoin-a na logaritamskoj skali.

Izvor: Glassnode

To pokazuje da se ljudi zadržavaju: potražnja za Bitcoin-om se povećava. Da je svaki masovni rast cena bio samo balon koji su iscenirali prevaranti koji žele brzo da se obogate, cena bi se vratila na nivo pre balona. To se dogodilo sa lalama, ali ne i sa Bitcoin-om.

I zašto se onda cena Bitcoin-a stalno povećava? Sve veći broj ljudi čuva Bitcoin dugoročno – oni razumeju šta Bitcoin može učiniti za njihovu štednju.

Zašto ljudi štede svoj novac u Bitcoin-u umesto na štednim računima, kućama, deonicama ili zlatu? Hajde da pogledajmo sve te metode štednje, i zatim da ih uporedimo sa Bitcoin-om.

Da li je vaš novac siguran u dolarima, kućama, akcijama ili zlatu?

Tokom mnogo godina, to su bile pristojne opcije za štednju. Međutim, sistem koji podržava vrednost svega ovoga je u krizi.

Dolari, Euri, Dinari

Dolari i sve ostale „tradicionalne“ valute koje proizvode vlade, stvorene su da izgube vrednost kroz inflaciju. Banke i tradicionalni monetarni sistem uzrokuju inflaciju stalnim stvaranjem i distribucijom novog novca. Kada Američke Federalne Rezerve objave ciljanu stopu od 2% inflacije, to znači da žele da vaš novac svake godine izgubi 2% od svoje vrednosti. Čak i sa inflacijom od samo 2%, vaša štednja u dolarima izgubiće polovinu vrednosti tokom 40-godišnjeg radnog veka.

Izveštena inflacija se danas opasno povečava, uprkos rastućem „buretu sa barutom“ koji bi mogao da explodira i dovede do masivne hiperinflacije. Što je više valute u opticaju, to je više baruta u buretu.

Naše vlade su ekonomiju napunile valutama da bankarski sistem ne bi propao nakon finansijske krize koja se dogodila 2008. godine. Od tada je većina glavnih centralnih banaka postavila vrlo niske kamatne stope, što pojedincima i korporacijama omogućava dobijanje jeftinijih kredita. To znači da mnogi pojedinci i korporacije podižu ogromne kredite i koriste ih za kupovinu druge imovine poput deonica, umetničkih dela i nekretnina. Sve ovo pozajmljivanje znači da stvaramo tone novog novca i stavljamo ga u opticaj.

Računi za podsticaje (stimulus bills) COVID-19 za 2020. godinu unose trilione u sistem. Ovoliko stvaranje valuta na kraju dovodi do inflacije – velikog gubitka u vrednosti valute.

Količina američkog dolara u opticaju gotovo se udvostručila od marta 2020. godine. Izvor

Računi za podsticaje su bez presedana, toliko da je neko izmislio meme da opiše ovu situaciju.

Resurs koji vlade mogu da naprave u većem broju da bi platile svoje račune? Ne zvuči kao dobro mesto za štednju novca.

Kuće

Kuće su tokom prošlog veka bile pristojan način štednje novca. Međutim, pad cena nekretnina 2007. godine doveo je do toga da su mnogi vlasnici kuća izgubili svu ušteđevinu.

Danas su kuće gotovo nepristupačne za prosečnog čoveka. Jedan od načina da se ovo izmeri je koliko godišnjih zarada treba prosečnom čoveku da zaradi ekvivalent vrednosti prosečne kuće. Prema CityLab-u, publikaciji Bloomberg-a koja pokriva gradove, porodica može da priuštiti određenu kuću ako košta manje od 2,6 godišnjih prihoda domaćinstva te porodice.

Međutim, prema RZS (Republički zavod za statistiku) prosečan prihod porodičnog domaćinstva u Srbiji iznosi oko 570 EUR mesečno ili otprilike 7.000 EUR godišnje. Nažalost, samo najjeftinija područja van gradova imaju srednje cene kuća od oko 2,6 prosečnih godišnjih prihoda domaćinstva. U većim gradovima poput Beograda i Novog Sada srednja cena kuće je veća od 10 prosečnih godišnjih prihoda jednog domaćinstva.

Ako nekako možete sebi da priuštite kuću, ona bi mogla biti pristojna zaliha vrednosti. Dokle god ne doživimo još jedan krah i izvršitelji zaplene ovu imovinu mnogim vlasnicima kuća.

Akcije

Berza je u prošlosti takođe dobro poslovala. Međutim, sporo i stabilno povećanje tržišta događa se u dosadnom, predvidljivom svetu. Svakog dana vidimo sve manje toga. Nakon ubrzanja korona virusa, videli smo smo najbrži pad američke berze u istoriji od 25% – brži od Velike depresije.

Neki se odlučuju za ulaganje u obveznice i drugu finansijsku imovinu, ali ’prinosi’ za tu imovinu – procenat kamate zarađene na imovinu iz godine u godinu – stalno opada. Sve veći broj odredjenih imovina ima čak i negativne prinose, što znači da posedovanje te imovine košta! Ovo je veliki problem za sve koji se oslanjaju na penziju. Plus, s obzirom na to da su akcije denominovane u tradicionalnim valutama poput dolara i evra, inflacija pojede prinos koji investitor dobije.

Najgore od svega je to što ti isti ekonomski krahovi koji uzrokuju masovna otpuštanja i teško tržište rada takođe znače i nagli pad cena akcija. Čuvanje ušteđevine u akcijama može značiti i gubitak štednje i gubitak posla zbog recesije. Teška vremena mogu da vas prisile da svoje akcije prodate po vrlo malim cenama samo da biste platili svoje račune.

A to nije baš siguran način štednje novca.

Zlato

Vrednost zlata neprekidno se povećavala tokom 5000 godina, obično padajući onda kada berza obećava jače prinose.

Cena zlata

Evidencija vrednosti zlata je solidna. Međutim, zlato nosi i druge rizike. Većina ljudi poseduje zlato na papiru. Oni fizički ne poseduju zlato, već ga njihova banka čuva za njih. Zbog toga je zlato veoma podložno konfiskaciji od strane vlade.

Zašto bi vlada konfiskovala nečije zlato, a kamoli u demokratskoj zemlji u „slobodnom svetu“? Ali to se dešavalo i ranije. 1933. godine Izvršnom Naredbom 6102, predsednik Roosevelt naredio je svim Amerikancima da prodaju svoje zlato vladi u zamenu za papirne dolare. Vlada je iskoristila pretnju zatvorom za prikupljanje zlata u fizičkom obliku. Znali su da se zlato više poštuje kao zaliha vrednosti širom sveta od papirnih dolara.

Ako posedujete svoje zlato na nekoj od aplikacija za trgovanje akcijama, možete se kladiti da će vam ga država oduzeti ako joj zatreba. Čak i ako posedujete fizičko zlato, onda ga izlažete mogućnosti krađe – od strane kriminalca ili vaše vlade.

Vaša uštedjevina nije bezbedna.

Rast cena svih gore navedenih sredstava zavisi od našeg trenutnog političkog i ekonomskog sistema koji se nastavlja kao i tokom proteklih 100 godina. Međutim, danas vidimo ogromne pukotine u ovom sistemu.

Sistem ne funkcioniše dobro za većinu ljudi.

Od 1971. plate većine američkih radnika nisu rasle. S druge strane, bogatstvo koje imaju najbogatiji u društvu nalazi se na nivoima koji nisu viđeni više od 80 godina. U međuvremenu, ljudi sve manje i manje veruju institucijama poput banaka i vlada.

EPI Plate VS Produktivnost

CBPP Nejednakost Bogatstva Tokom Vremena

Edelman Studija Poverenja

Širom sveta možemo videti dokaze o slamanju sistema kroz politički ekstremizam: izbor Trampa i drugih ekstremističkih desničarskih kandidata, Bregzit, pokret Occupy, popularizacija koncepta univerzalnog osnovnog dohotka, povratak pojma „socijalizam“ nazad u modu. Ljudi na svim delovima političkog i društvenog spektra osećaju problematična vremena i posežu za sve radikalnijim rešenjima.

Šta je bolje za štednju od dolara, kuća i akcija?

Pa kako ljudi mogu da štede novac u ovim teškim vremenima? Ili ne koriste tradicionalne valute, ili kupuju sredstva koja će zadržati vrednost u teškim vremenima.

Bitcoin ima najviše potencijala da zadrži vrednost kroz politička i ekonomska previranja od bilo koje druge imovine. Na tom putu će biti rupa na kojima će se rušiti ili pumpati, međutim, njegova svojstva čine ga takvim da će verovatno preživeti previranja kada druga imovina ne bude to mogla.

Šta Bitcoin čini drugačijim?

Bitcoini su retki.

Proces ‘rudarenja’ bitcoin-a, proizvodnju bitcoin-a čini veoma skupom, a Bitcoin protokol ograničava ukupan broj bitcoin-a na 21 milion novčića. To čini Bitcoin imunim na nagle poraste ponude. Ovo se veoma razlikuje od tradicionalnih valuta, koje vlade mogu da štampaju sve više kad god one to požele. Zapamtite, povećanje ponude vrši veliki pritisak na vrednost valute.

Bitcoini nemaju drugu ugovornu stranu.

Bitcoin se takođe razlikuje od imovine kao što su obveznice, akcije i kuće, jer mu nedostaje druga ugovorna strana. Druge ugovorne strane su drugi subjekti uključeni u vrednost sredstva, koji to sredstvo mogu obezvrediti ili vam ga uzeti. Ako imate hipoteku na svojoj kući, banka je druga ugovorna strana. Kada sledeći put dođe do velikog finansijskog kraha, banka vam može oduzeti kuću. Kompanije su kvazi-ugovorne strane akcijama i obveznicama, jer mogu da počnu da donose loše odluke koje utiču na njihovu cenu akcija ili na „neizvršenje“ duga (da ga ne vraćaju vama ili drugim poveriocima). Bitcoin nema ovih problema.

Bitcoin je pristupačan.

Svako sa 5 eura i mobilnim telefonom može da kupi i poseduje mali deo bitcoin-a. Važno je da znate da ne morate da kupite ceo bitcoin. Bitcoin-i su deljivi do 100-milionite jedinice, tako da možete da kupite Bitcoin u vrednosti od samo nekoliko eura. Neuporedivo lakše nego kupovina kuće, zlata ili akcija!

Bitcoin se ne može konfiskovati.

Banke drže većinu vaših eura, zlata i akcija za vas. Većina ljudi u razvijenom svetu veruje bankama, jer većina ljudi koji žive u današnje vreme nikada nije doživela konfiskaciju imovine ili ’šišanje’ od strane banaka ili vlada. Nažalost, postoji presedan za konfiskaciju imovine čak i u demokratskim zemljama sa snažnom vladavinom prava.

Kada vlada konfiskuje imovinu, ona obično ubedi javnost da će je menjati za imovinu jednake vrednosti. U SAD-u 1930-ih, vlada je davala dolare vlasnicima zlata. Vlada je znala da uvek može da odštampa još više dolara, ali da ne može da napravi više zlata. Na Kipru 2012. godine, jedna propala banka je svojim klijentima dala deonice banke da pokrije dolare klijenata koje je banka trebala da ima. I dolari i deonice su strmoglavo opali u odnosu na imovinu koja je uzeta od ovih ljudi.

Doći do bitcoin-a koji ljudi poseduju, biće mnogo teže jer se bitcoin-i mogu čuvati u novčaniku koji ne poseduje neka treća strana, a vi možete čak i da zapamtite privatne ključeve do vašeg bitcoin-a u glavi.

Bitcoin je za štednju.

Bitcoin se polako pokazuje kao najbolja opcija za dugoročnu štednju novca, posebno s obzirom na današnju ekonomsku klimu. Posedovanje čak i malog dela, je polisa osiguranja koja se isplati ako svet i dalje nastavi da ludi. Cena Bitcoin-a u dolarima može divlje da varira u roku od godinu ili dve, ali tokom 3+ godine skoro svi vide slične ili više cene od trenutka kada su ga kupili. U stvari, doslovno niko nije izgubio novac čuvajući Bitcoin duže od 3,5 godine – čak i ako je kupio BTC na apsolutnim vrhovima tržišta.

Imajte na umu da nakon ove tačke ti ljudi više nikada nisu videli rizik od gubitka. Cena se nikada nije smanjila niže od najviše cene u prethodnom ciklusu.

Po čemu se Bitcoin razlikuje od ostalih valuta?

Bitcoin funkcioniše tako dobro kao način štednje zbog svog neobičnog dizajna, koji ga čini drugačijim od bilo kog drugog oblika novca koji je postojao pre njega. Bitcoin je digitalna valuta, prvi i verovatno jedini primer valute koja ima ograničenu ponudu dok radi na otvorenom, decentralizovanom sistemu. Vlade strogo kontrolišu valute koje danas koristimo, poput dolara i eura, i proizvode ih za finansiranje ratova i dugova. Korisnici Bitcoin-a – poput vas – kontrolišu Bitcoin protokol.

Evo šta Bitcoin razlikuje od dolara, eura i drugih valuta:

Bitcoin je otvoren sistem.

Svako može da odluči da se pridruži Bitcoin mreži i primeni pravila softverskog protokola, što je dovelo do vrlo decentralizovanog sistema u kojem nijedan pojedinac ili entitet ne može da blokira transakciju, zamrzne sredstva ili da ukrade od druge osobe.Današnji savremeni bankarski sistem se uveliko razlikuje. Nekoliko banaka je dobilo poverenje da gotovo sve valute, akcije i druge vredne predmete čuvaju na “sigurnom” za svoje klijente. Da biste postali banka, potrebni su vam milioni dolara i neverovatne količine političkog uticaja. Da biste pokrenuli Bitcoin čvor i postali „svoja banka“, potrebno vam je nekoliko stotina dolara i jedno slobodno popodne.

Tako izgleda Bitcoin čvor – Node MyNode čvor vam omogućava da postanete svoja banka za samo nekoliko minuta.

Bitcoin ima ograničenu ponudu.

Softverski protokol otvorenog koda koji upravlja Bitcoin sistemom ograničava broj novih bitcoin-a koji se mogu stvoriti tokom vremena, sa ograničenjem od ukupno 21.000.000 bitcoin-a. S druge strane, valute koje danas koristimo imaju neograničenu ponudu. Istorija i sadašnje odluke centralnih banaka govore nam da će vlade uvek štampati sve više i više valuta, sve dok valuta ne bude bezvredna. Sve ovo štampanje uzrokuje inflaciju, što pravi štetu običnim radnim ljudima i štedišama.

Tradicionalne valute su dizajnirane tako da opadaju vremenom. Svaki put kada centralna banka kaže da cilja određenu stopu inflacije, oni ustvari kažu da žele da vaš novac svake godine izgubi određeni procenat svoje vrednosti.

Bitcoin-ova ograničena ponuda znači da je on tako dizajniran da raste vremenom kako se potražnja za njim povećava.

Bitcoin putuje oko sveta za nekoliko minuta.

Svako može da pošalje bitcoin-e za nekoliko minuta širom sveta, bez obzira na granice, banke i vlade. Potrebno je manje od minuta da se transakcija pojavi na novčaniku primaoca i oko 60 minuta da se transakcija u potpunosti „obračuna“, tako da primaoc može da bude siguran da su primljeni bitcoin-i sada njegovi (6 konfirmacija bloka). Slanje drugih valuta širom sveta traje danima ili čak mesecima ako se šalju milionski iznosi, a podrazumeva i visoke naknade.

Neke vlade i novinari tvrde da ova sloboda putovanja koju pruža Bitcoin pomaže kriminalcima i teroristima. Međutim, transakciju Bitcoin-a je lakše pratiti nego većinu transakcija u dolarima ili eurima.

Bitcoin se može čuvati na “USB-u”.

Dizajn Bitcoin-a je takav da vam treba samo da čuvate privatni ključ do svojih ‘bitcoin’ adresa (poput lozinke do bankovnih računa) da biste pristupili svojim bitcoin-ima odakle god poželite. Ovaj privatni ključ možete da sačuvate na disku ili na papiru u obliku 12 ili 24 reči na engleskom jeziku. Kao rezultat toga, možete da držite Bitcoin-e vredne milione dolara u svojoj šaci.

Sve ostale valute danas možete ili da strpate u svoj dušek ili da ih poverite banci na čuvanje. Za većinu ljudi koji žive u razvijenom svetu, i koji ne osporavaju autoritet i poverenje u banku, ovo deluje sasvim dobro. Međutim, oni kojima je potrebno da pobegnu od ugnjetavačke vlade ili koji naljute pogrešne ljude, ne mogu verovati bankama. Za njih je sposobnost da nose svoju ušteđevinu bez potrebe za ogromnim koferom neprocenjiva. Čak i ako ne živite na mestu poput ovog, cena Bitcoin-a se i dalje povećava kada ih neko kome oni trebaju kupi.

Kako Bitcoin spašava svet?

Bitcoin, kao ultimativni način štednje, je cakum pakum, ali da li on pomaže u poboljšanju sveta u celini?

Kao što ćete početi da shvatate, ulazeći sve dublje i u druge sadržaje na ovoj stranici, mnogi temeljni delovi našeg današnjeg monetarnog sistema i ekonomije su duboko slomljeni. Međutim, oni koji upravljaju imaju korist od ovakvih sistema, pa se on verovatno neće promeniti bez revolucije ili mirnog svrgavanja od strane naroda. Bitcoin predstavlja novi sistem, sa nekoliko glavnih prednosti:

• Bitcoin popravlja novac, koji je milenijumima služio kao važan alat za rast i poboljšanje društva.
• Bitcoin vraća zdrav razum pozajmljivanju, uklanjanjem apsurdnih situacija poput negativnih kamatnih stopa (gde zajmitelj plaća da bi se zadužio).
• Bitcoin pokreće ulaganja u obnovljive izvore energije i poboljšava energetsku efikasnost u mreži, služeći kao „krajnji kupac“ za sve vrste energije.

Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?

Ovaj članak vam je dao osnovno razumevanje zašto biste trebali razmišljati o Bitcoin-u. Ako želite da saznate više, preporučujem ove resurse:

• Film Bitcoin: Kraj Novca Kakav Poznajemo
• Još uvek je rano za Bitcoin
• Zasto baš Bitcoin?
• Šta je to Bitcoin?
• The Bitcoin Whitepaper ← objavljen 2008. godine, ovo je izložio dizajn za Bitcoin.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Šta je finansijski samo-suverenitet?
2. Zašto smo prestali da koristimo zlatni standard?
3. Šta fali tradicionalnoj valuti i centralnim bankama?
4. Kako mogu ljudi da mi ukradu novac ako je u banci?
5. Kako ljudi koriste moje finansijske podatke protiv mene?
6. Kako ljudi kontrolišu sa kim obavljam transakcije?
7. Kako da povratimo svoj finansijski samo-suverenitet?
8. Kako Bitcoin funkcioniše?
9. Pa onda, zašto Bitcoin?
10. Po čemu je Bitcoin bolji od sistema tradicionalnih valuta?
11. Kako Bitcoin štiti od Inflacije?
12. Kako Bitcoin štiti od Zaplene?
13. Kako Bitcoin štiti Privatnost?
14. Kako Bitcoin štiti od Cenzure?
15. Šta će vlada i banke učiniti sa Bitcoin-om?
16. Da li je vrednost Bitcoin-a nestabilna?
17. Da li je Bitcoin novac?
18. Bitcoin kao Zaliha Vrednosti
19. Bitcoin kao Sredstvo Razmene
20. Bitcoin kao Obračunska Jedinica
21. Bitcoin kao Sistem Kontrole
22. Šta je sa „Sledećim Bitcoin-om“?
23. Na kraju

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Kratki uvod u bezbednost, privatnost i slobodu vašeg novca.

Pre nego što saznate kako morate znati zašto.

Šta je finansijski samo-suverenitet?

Zamislite da u ruci imate zlatni novčić, jedan od najjednostavnijih i najčistijih oblika finansijskog samo-suvereniteta.

Da biste držali taj zlatni novčić, ne morate da se složite sa bilo kojim Uslovima korišćenja ili Politikom privatnosti, da se pridržavate bilo kojih KYC ili AML propisa, da pokažete ličnu kartu, da navedete svoje ime ili jedinstveni matični broj.

Samo ga držite u ruci i njime možete platiti bilo šta, davanjem tog novčića nekom drugom da ga drži u ruci. To je čista sloboda.

Pored slobode onoga što kupujete svojim novčićem, niko ne može magično znati kome plaćate ili koju robu/usluge kupujete tim zlatni novčićem, jer vaša privatnost nije ugrožena sa zlatom.

A pošto imate svoju privatnost, niko ne može znati za vaše transakcije, pa niko ne može da odluči da ograniči ili kontroliše za šta koristite taj zlatni novčić.

Hiljadama godina zlato je bilo globalni standard novca.

Svi su održavali svoj finansijski samo-suverenitet, a privatnost i sloboda svačijeg novca su poštovani.

Zaista je bilo tako jednostavno.

Zašto smo prestali da koristimo zlatni standard?

Trenutni globalni bankarski sistem i sistem tradicionalnih valuta, bankari su vrlo polako implementirali u proteklih 100+ godina.

Udružili su se sa svetskim vladama koje su svima oduzele zlato pod pretnjom nasilja.

Na primer, nakon što je Federalna banka rezervi osnovana u SAD-u 1913. godine, američka vlada je nasilno oduzela svo zlato 1933. godine, prisiljavajući sve da koriste nove centralne banke i sistem novčanica Federalnih rezervi.

„Dostavite svoje celokupno zlato u naše sefove u zamenu za bezvredni papir, ili ćemo upotrebiti silu nad vama.“

Banke su u početku zamenile zlatni standard papirnim priznanicama zvane zlatni sertifikati, ali nakon što je prošlo dovoljno vremena, banke su u osnovi jednostavno prestale da ih otkupljuju za zlato.

Zlatni sertifikati izdavani od banaka (novčanice ili „gotovina“) u tom trenutku bili su samo bezvredni papir, ali zbog vladine pretnje nasiljem, svi su bili primorani da nastave da koriste novčanice Federalnih rezervi.

Od skora, banke koriste digitalnu bazu podataka, u kojoj doslovno mogu stvoriti novac ni iz čega, čak i da ga ne moraju štampati na papiru.

Predsednik Federalnih rezervi priča kako oni „štampaju“ novac.

Oni su učvrstili svoju moć da manipulišu i naduvaju globalnu novčanu masu, nadgledaju finansijske transakcije svih i kontrolišu protok svih tradicionalnih valuta u svom bankarskom sistemu.

Banke sada kontrolišu sve.

Jednom kada su centralni bankari uspešno preuzeli kontrolu nad novčanom masom u svetu, zajedno sa sposobnošću svih da slobodno vrše transakcije i trguju, svet je kolektivno izgubio bezbednost, slobodu i privatnost svog novca.

Šta fali tradicionalnoj valuti i centralnim bankama?

Nakon impelentacije trenutnog globalnog bankarskog sistema i sistema tradicionalnih valuta, svetu nije preostao drugi izbor nego da veruje bankarima i političarima da vode globalni finansijski sistem na pošten način.

„Koren problema tradicionalne valute je potpuno poverenje potrebno za njeno funkcionisanje. Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna kršenja tog poverenja. Bankama se mora verovati da čuvaju naš novac i prenose ga elektronskim putem, ali ga daju u talasima kreditnih balona sa malim delićem rezerve. ““ — Satoshi Nakamoto

Istorija zloupotrebe tradicionalnih valuta može se grupisati u 3 kategorije:

• Bezbednost. Loši ljudi kradu vaš novac ili vrednost vašeg novca, ponekad na očigledne načine, ponekad na podle načine.

• Privatnost. Loši ljudi nadgledaju sve vaše privatne finansijske transakcije, i koriste vaše lične finansijske podatke protiv vas.

• Sloboda. Loši ljudi kontrolišu na koji način možete da trošite sopstveni novac, sa kim možete da obavljate transakcije, koliko možete da potrošite itd.

Kako mogu ljudi da mi ukradu novac ako je u banci?

Evo nekoliko primera:

• Krađa inflacijom: Ovo je primarni način na koji banke kradu vaš novac i jedan od najpodlijih. Kada centralne banke izdaju novi novac, bilo štampanjem na bezvrednom papiru, ili samo dodavanjem knjigovodstvenog unosa u bazu podataka koju kontrolišu, one naduvaju globalnu novčanu masu. Inflacija krade kupovnu moć svih koji drže deo te valute, jednostavno zato što je sada više te valute u opticaju. Zlato se ne može stvoriti, pa su bankari umesto toga izmislili sistem papirnog novca.

• Krađa zaplenom: Ovo je jedan od načina na koji vlade mogu ukrasti vaš novac. Da li ste ikada čuli za zaplenu imovine? Ako policajac posumnja da je vaša imovina korišćena u krivičnom delu, može je zapleniti, a vi se morate boriti da biste povratili vašu ukradenu imovinu. Ili, drugi primer: Pokušajte da uđete u zemlju sa više od 10.000 USD u džepu, a ne da je prijavite, i pogledajte šta će se dogoditi. Sve je isto: krađa od strane drugih ljudi sa oružjem.

• Krađa putem oporezivanja: Ovo je još jedan način na koji vam vlade kradu novac. Ne sporim da li je oporezivanje etično ili ne, samo konstatujem činjenicu da vaša vlada može da primora vašu banku da im da vaš novac, a ovo je bezbednostna ranjivost. Da bi novac bio siguran, mora biti nezaplenjiv, a vlade mogu da zaplene vaše bankovne račune.

Kako ljudi koriste moje finansijske podatke protiv mene?

Ako fizičku tradicionalnu valutu predate drugoj osobi, u obliku papirnog novca ili kovanica, relativno je lako zaštititi privatnost svoje transakcije, baš kao što bi bilo da koristite zlatnike.

Međutim, ako koristite kreditne kartice, debitne kartice, bankovne transfere, PayPal, Venmo, LINE Pay, WeChat Pay ili bilo koju drugu mrežu za plaćanje koja je centralno kontrolisana, aktivno pristajete da se odreknete privatnosti podataka svih svojih privatnih finansijskih transakcija i sve ih dajete poverljivoj trećoj strani.

Kada su svi podaci i metapodaci vaših finansijskih transakcija prijavljeni u centralnu bazu podataka, onaj ko ima pristup toj bazi podataka može da koristi vaše podatke protiv vas.

Evo nekoliko osnovnih primera:

• Ako ste kupili robu rizičnog životnog stila poput cigareta, banka može reći vašoj osiguravajućoj kompaniji da poveća vaše osiguranje.
• Ako ste kupili nešto što je ilegalno, poput droga za rekreaciju, vaša banka može reći vašoj vladi da vas zakonski goni.

Ali u slučaju nekih represivnih vlada, oni su to odveli do ekstrema. Oni centralno prikupljaju sve finansijske transakcije i druge podatke svih svojih građana i stvorili su totalitarni Sistem Socijalnih Bodova (eng. Social Credit Score):

Prepoznavanje lica je jedan od elemenata kineskih napora za praćenje

Zapisi George Orwell-a već su postali stvarnost u Kini zbog sistema tradicionalnih valuta centralne banke i platnih mreža koje su izgrađene na njemu.

Ako mislite da se to neće dogoditi u vašoj zemlji, razmislite ponovo.

To se dešava vrlo polako, ali na kraju će sve svetske vlade primeniti Sistem Socijalnih Bodova, dok je Kina to tek prva učinila.

Kako ljudi kontrolišu sa kim obavljam transakcije?

U prvom primeru sa zlatnim novčićem, kada ga predate nekom drugom kao plaćanje za robu ili uslugu, ne postoji centralizovana evidencija vaše platne transakcije i imate savršenu privatnost.

Međutim, u centralnom bankarskom sistemu, budući da banka ima i znanje o podacima o vašim transakcijama i moć da kontroliše vaša sredstva, oni mogu proceniti niz pravila da bi odlučili da li žele da dozvole vašu transakciju ili da to odbiju, takođe kao i izvršenje te odluke kontrolišući vaša sredstva.

Tako su vlade naoružale tradicionalne valute i ​​centralni bankarski sistem kao Sistem Kontrole nad svojim građanima.

Da rezimiramo: Pošto ste se odrekli bezbednosti i privatnosti svog novca, izgubili ste i svoju finansijsku slobodu.

“Privatnost nije o tome da nešto treba sakriti. Privatnost je o tome da nešto treba zaštititi.” — Edward Snowden

Kako da povratimo svoj finansijski samo-suverenitet?

Pokret Cypherpunk pokrenuli su pojedinci koji su shvatili važnost zaštite privatnosti i slobode pojedinačnih korisnika na Internetu.

Cypherpunk-ovi su verovali da se gore opisani problemi mogu rešiti samo potpuno novim novčanim sistemom, koji poštuje i štiti bezbednost, privatnost i slobodu pojedinca.

Mnogi od Cypherpunk-era pokušali su da izgrade nove etičke sisteme e-gotovine koji bi mogli da zamene tradicionalne valute i centralno bankarstvo.

Bilo je mnogo teških računarskih problema koje je trebalo prevazići u stvaranju tako istinski decentralizovanog sistema, i ako su neki od njih bili blizu cilja, svi su propali.

Odnosno, sve dok jedan pseudonim Cypherpunk-a to konačno nije shvatio 2008. godine: kombinacijom digitalnih potpisa, distribuirane knjige i peer-to-peer mreže, rođen je Bitcoin.

Kako Bitcoin funkcioniše?

Baš kao što ne treba da znate kako Internet funkcioniše da bi gledali slike mačaka na Internetu, razumevanje tehničke složenosti načina na koji Bitcoin radi „ispod haube“ nije neophodno da biste ga koristili i postigli sopstveni finansijski samo-suverenitet.

Važna stvar koju želim da saznate iz ovog članka je da iako većina novih tehnologija u početku ima loše korisničko iskustvo, Bitcoin svesno i vrlo namerno ne žrtvuje svoje osnovne filozofske principe da bi brže pridobio nove korisnike, ili da bi poboljšao korisničko iskustvo.

Najpametniji Cypherpunk-ovi rade na poboljšanju korisničkog iskustva.

Tehnologija će se sa vremenom poboljšavati, baš kao i za Internet.

Pa onda, zašto Bitcoin?

Reći ću vam zašto:

Jer Bitcoin poštuje bezbednost, privatnost i slobodu pojedinca.

Po čemu je Bitcoin bolji od sistema tradicionalnih valuta?

Za početak, Bitcoin nema Uslove korišćenja, Politiku privatnosti i Propise o usklađenosti sa KYC/AML. (Know Your Costumer & Anti-money Laundering)

Bitcoin je uspešan primer implementacije kripto-anarhije, gde su jedina pravila kriptografija, matematika i jak skup konsenzusnih pravila.

To je distribuirani i nepoverljivi sistem zasnovan na finansijskim podsticajima i nijedna osoba ili centralizovani entitet ne može da kontroliše Bitcoin.

Ono što je najvažnije, Bitcoin vam omogućava da odustanete od tradicionalnih valuta, sistema delimičnih rezervi i centralnog bankarstva rešavanjem osnovnih problema poverenja:

• Sigurnost od inflacije korišćenjem fiksnog snabdevanja
• Sigurnost od zaplene korišćenjem ključeva za kontrolu sredstava
• Privatnost plaćanja korišćenjem pseudonimnih identiteta
• Sloboda protiv cenzure korišćenjem peer to peer mreže

Kako Bitcoin štiti od Inflacije?

Jedno od najkritičnijih pravila konsenzusa o Bitcoin-u je da može postojati najviše 21,000,000 Bitcoin-a.

Nakon izdavanja svih Bitcoin-a, nikada više ne može doći do stvaranja novih Bitcoin-a.

Stoga je Bitcoin deflaciona valuta, koja sprečava ljude da ukradu vaš novac ili njegovu vrednost naduvavanjem novčane mase.

Monetarna Inflacija Bitcoin-a

Kako Bitcoin štiti od Zaplene?

Bitcoin se može preneti samo pomoću kriptografskog privatnog ključa koji kontroliše sredstva.

Nijedan bitcoin nikada ne izadje van sistema.

Nijedna vlada, banka ili sudski nalog ne mogu zapleniti ta sredstva.

Jednostavno ne postoji način da se takva odredba ili naredba sprovede od bilo kog „organa vlasti“, jer Bitcoin ne priznaje nijedno „ovlašćenje“ u svom sistemu.

Bitcoin je potpuno samo-suveren sistem i zbog svoje distribuirane prirode ne može se ugasiti.

Postoji zbog sopstvenih zasluga, samo zato što ljudi veruju u to.

Kako Bitcoin štiti Privatnost?

Bitcoin ne traži vaše ime ili druge detalje koji mogu lično da vas identifikuju.

Vaš identitet je kriptografski, a ne vaše stvarno ime.

Dakle, vaš identitet izgleda otprilike kao 1vizSAISbuiKsbt9d8JV8itm5ackk2TorC, a ne kao „Stefan Petrovič“.

Pored toga, niko ne zna ko kontroliše sredstva na datoj Bitcoin adresi, a nova tehnologija se neprestano razvija kako bi se poboljšala privatnost Bitcoin-a.

Kako Bitcoin štiti od Cenzure?

Peer-to-peer Bitcoin mreža je u potpunosti distribuirana.

To znači da ako jedan čvor pokuša da cenzuriše vašu transakciju, neće uspeti ukoliko * svaki * čvor(Node) ne izvrši cenzuru vaše transakcije.

Šta će vlada i banke učiniti sa Bitcoin-om?

Neke zemlje su pokušale da ga regulišu, kontrolišu, isključe itd., ali nijedna od njih nije uspela.

Čini se da uglavnom samo žele da koriste postojeći sistem centralnih banaka da bi kontrolisali kako ljudi trguju tradicionalnim valutama za Bitcoin, i naravno žele da oporezuju Bitcoin na bilo koji mogući način.

Evo nekoliko uobičajenih tvrdnji vlada i banaka o Bitcoin-u:

Evropska centralna banka kaže da Bitcoin nije valuta i upozorava da je vrlo nestabilna.

„Bitcoin, izgleda samo kao prevara“, rekao je gospodin Tramp. „Ne sviđa mi se jer je to još jedna valuta koja se takmiči sa dolarom.“

Da li je vrednost Bitcoin-a nestabilna?

Ako umanjite grafikon cena, videćete da Bitcoin-u neprekidno raste vrednost od kada je stvoren, trgujući sa manje od 0,01 USD i polako se penje na preko 60.000 USD na nedavnom vrhuncu početkom 2021. godine.

Cena Bitcoina od 2011. godine

To je zato što je njegova ponuda fiksna i ljudi cene njegovu nestašicu.

Sa većom potražnjom i fiksnom ponudom, cene vremenom rastu.

Kako godine odmiču, njegova vrednost će se povećavati kako novi korisnici počinju da drže Bitcoin. (U svetu Bitcoina držanju kažemo HODL. Drži bitcoin. Hodl bitcoin.)

Da li je Bitcoin novac?

Da biste odgovorili na pitanje da li je Bitcoin novac ili ne, prvo morate definisati pojam „novac“.

Nažalost, reč „novac“ koristimo da bismo opisali nekoliko vrlo različitih komplikovanih koncepata, koji su svi potpuno odvojeni.

Termin „novac“ se zapravo odnosi na:

• Zaliha Vrednosti (Store of Value)
• Sredstvo Razmene ( Medium of Exchange)
• Obračunska Jedinica (Unit of Account)
• Sistem Kontrole (System Control)

Bitcoin kao Zaliha Vrednosti

Ovaj tweet to savršeno objašnjava:

Sinov prijatelj: “Matt, šta će se dogoditi ako novčić od 1 funte usitnite na pola?”

Dobijaš dva komada bezvrednog metala. Ako zlatnik usitnite na pola, dobićete dva zlatnika, od kojih svaki vredi polovinu onoga što je novčić bio.

Sin: „… isto tako kao sa zlatom jeste sa bitcoinima“.

Bitcoin je potpuno deljiv i deluje kao izvrsna zaliha vrednosti, baš kao što je i zlato već hiljadama godina.

Bitcoin kao Sredstvo Razmene

Bitcoin je dobro služio kao sredstvo razmene za svoje rane korisnike.

Ali skaliranje Bitcoin-a na globalni nivo koji bi mogao da posluži svim ljudima je veliki izazov, jer se osnovna „blockchain“ tehnologija ne skalira na globalni nivo.

Da bi rešio ovaj problem skaliranja, Satoshi je izumeo koncept kanala plaćanja, a u kombinaciji sa malo pomoći drugih briljantnih računarskih naučnika Cipherpunk-a koji su poboljšali koncept tokom poslednjih 10 godina, sada imamo mrežu Lightning, koja omogućava da se Bitcoin koristi kao odlično Sredstvo Razmene, koje se vremenom može proširiti na globalni nivo.

Bitcoin kao Obračunska Jedinica

Najmanja obračunska jedinica Bitcoin-a nazvana je po njenom tvorcu, Satoshi-u.

Jedan Bitcoin je jednak 100.000.000 Satoshi-a.

Na kraju, kako se robe i usluge sve češće razmenjuju za Bitcoin, sve više ljudi će koristiti Bitcoin ili „Sats“ kao obračunsku jedinicu.

Konvertor Bitcoin - Satoshi

Bitcoin kao Sistem Kontrole

Budući da je Bitcoin dizajniran da poštuje i štiti ljudska prava pojedinca, posebno bezbednost, privatnost i slobodu novca; ne bi bio dobar Sistem Kontrole i ne može se koristiti za ugnjetavanje ljudi, kao što se dešava sa tradicionalnim valutama i sistemima centralnog bankarstva koji to trenutno vrlo dobro rade.

Šta je sa „Sledećim Bitcoin-om“?

Kao što može biti samo jedan „globalni“ Internet, tako može biti i samo jedan globalni novac, a stigao je i novi Bitcoin Standard.

Sve ostalo je ili direktna prevara ili gubljenje vremena.

Ako bi neko želeo da vam proda „Sledeće Zlato“, da li biste ga kupili?

Na kraju

Nadam se da vam je ovaj članak pomogao da razumete zašto je Bitcoin stvoren i kako može da pomogne svetu da se oslobodi tradicionalnih valuta i sistema centralnog bankarstva koji je veoma duboko integrisan u naše trenutno društvo.

Evo nekoliko misli koje treba poneti sa sobom:

• Bitcoin nije izmišljen radi zarade, već je izmišljen da bi promenio svet.
• Bitcoin će to učiniti poštujući korisnikovu bezbednost, privatnost i slobodu.
• Bitcoin se već koristi kao novac, na nekoliko načina na koji se novac može koristiti.
• Bitcoin nije nestabilan, njegova vrednost vremenom polako raste (odzumirajte).
• Bitcoin ima mnogo kopija i prevaranata koji će pokušati da vam prodaju svoju kopiju Bitcoin-a. Ne zavaravajte se lažnim Bitcoin-om baš kao što vas ne bi prevarili ni Lažnim Zlatom.
• Bitcoin će postati najveći prenos bogatstva u našem životu, tako da ćete možda želeti da ih uzmete pre nego kasnije.
• Ostanite skromni i skupljajte satošije.

@ 2b24a1fa:17750f64

„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt.

https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/wolf-biermann-und-sein-falscher-friede-von-alexa-rodrian?

Die Sängerin Alexa Rodrian erlebte bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises einen solchen Moment der Desillusion. Es war der Auftritt des Liedermachers Wolf Biermann. Hören Sie hierzu Alexa Rodrians Text „Wolf Biermann und sein falscher Friede“.

Bild: Marco Maas/fotografirma.de

@ dfc7c785:4c3c6174

This looks like a handy app for writing long form posts on Nostr. Giving it a test but wasn’t able to enable file saving, which might be because I’m using Chrome on the iPhone? Perhaps it needs to be done on my laptop instead?

Second heading

Another paragraph etc

@ 7e6f9018:a6bbbce5

Governments and the press often publish data on the population’s knowledge of Catalan. However, this data only represents one stage in the linguistic process and does not accurately reflect the state of the language, since a language only has a future if it is used. Knowledge is a necessary step toward using a language, but it is not the final stage — that stage is actual use.

So what is the state of Catalan usage? If we look at data on regular use, we see that the Catalan language has remained stagnant over the past hundred years, with nearly the same number of regular speakers. In 1930, there were around 2.5 million speakers, and in 2018, there were 2.7 million.

Regular use of Catalan in Catalonia, in millions of speakers. The dotted segments are an estimate of the trend, based on the statements of Joan Coromines and adjusted according to Catalonia’s population growth.

These figures wouldn’t necessarily be negative if the language’s integrity were strong, that is, if its existence weren’t threatened by other languages. But the population of Catalonia has grown from 2.7 million in 1930 to 7.5 million in 2018. This means that today, regular Catalan speakers make up only 36% of Catalonia’s population, whereas in 1930, they represented 90%.

Regular use of Catalan in Catalonia, as a percentage of speakers. The dotted segments are an estimate of the trend, based on the statements of Joan Coromines and adjusted according to Catalonia’s population growth.

The language that has gained the most ground is mainly Spanish, which went from 200,000 speakers in 1930 to 3.8 million in 2018. Moreover, speakers of other foreign languages (500,000 speakers) have also grown more than Catalan speakers over the past hundred years.

Notes, Sources, and Methodology

The data from 2003 onward is taken from Idescat (source). Before 2003, there are no official statistics, but we can make interpretations based on historical evidence. The data prior to 2003 is calculated based on two key pieces of evidence:

• 1st Interpretation: In 1930, 90% of the population of Catalonia spoke Catalan regularly. Source and evidence: The Romance linguist Joan Coromines i Vigneaux, a renowned 20th-century linguist, stated in his 1950 work "El que s'ha de saber de la llengua catalana" that "In this territory [Greater Catalonia], almost the entire population speaks Catalan as their usual language" (1, 2).\ While "almost the entire population" is not a precise number, we can interpret it quantitatively as somewhere between 80% and 100%. For the sake of a moderate estimate, we assume 90% of the population were regular Catalan speakers, with the remaining 10% being immigrants and officials of the Spanish state.

• 2nd Interpretation: Regarding population growth between 1930 and 1998, on average, 60% is due to immigration (mostly adopting or already using Spanish language), while 40% is natural growth (likely to acquire Catalan language from childhood). Source and evidence: Between 1999 and 2019, when more detailed data is available, immigration accounted for 68% of population growth. From 1930 to 1998, there was a comparable wave of migration, especially between 1953 and 1973, largely of Spanish-speaking origin (3, 4, 5, 6). To maintain a moderate estimate, we assume 60% of population growth during that period was due to immigration, with the ratio varying depending on whether the period experienced more or less total growth.

@ f1989a96:bcaaf2c1

Good morning, readers!

Today, we begin in China, where the central bank injected $138 billion into the economy and expanded the money supply by 12.5% year-over-year. As the regime eases monetary conditions to prop up a decelerating economy, Chinese citizens are rushing to preserve their savings, evidenced by Bitcoin/CNY trading activity jumping over 20% on the news. But while some escape to harder money, others remain trapped. In Hunan, an elderly Chinese woman died outside a bank after being forced to appear in person in order to withdraw her own money for medical care.\ \ In Central America, Salvadoran President Bukele revived a “foreign agents” bill that would impose a 30% tax on foreign-funded NGOs, threatening to financially crush organizations that hold those in power accountable and protect journalists and civil society. The proposal mirrors laws used in Russia, China, Belarus, and beyond to suppress dissent. And it arrives amid Bukele’s authoritarian drift and increasing threats to independent journalists.\ \ In open-source news, we highlight a new tool called ChapSmart, a Bitcoin-powered remittance service that allows users to send Bitcoin to citizens and families in Tanzania and have it disbursed in Tanzanian shillings (TZS) via M-PESA. This tool is increasingly helpful as the Tanzanian regime tightens control over foreign currency, mandating that all transactions be conducted in TZS. ChapSmart provides an accessible way for nonprofits and dissidents to access value from abroad using Bitcoin.\ \ We end with an Ask Me Anything (AMA) with Bitcoin educator Anita Posch on Stacker News, who shares her thoughts, experiences, and views from her time conducting Bitcoin education in authoritarian regimes in Africa. We also feature an article from Togolese human rights advocate Farida Nabourema, who critiques Nigeria’s new investment act for classifying Bitcoin as a security and for the regulatory hurdles this will impose on the grassroots adoption of freedom tech in the country.

Be sure to tune in next week at 2 p.m. Oslo time on Wednesday, May 28, as the Oslo Freedom Forum’s Freedom Tech track airs on Bitcoin Magazine’s livestream channels, headlined by speakers Ziya Sadr, Abubakr Nur Khalil, Amiti Uttarwar, Calle, Sarah Kreps, Ben Perrin, and many more.

Now, let’s read on!

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GLOBAL NEWS

El Salvador | Bukele Reintroduces Foreign Agents Bill

In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele revived a controversial “foreign agents” bill that threatens to severely restrict the finances and operations of NGOs. While the bill is not finalized, Bukele shared on X that the proposal would impose a 30% tax on donations to NGOs receiving foreign funding. This punitive financial measure alone would severely restrict Salvadoran organizations that protect independent journalism, advocate for human rights, and hold the government accountable. In neighboring Nicaragua, a similar foreign agents law has enabled the closure of more than 3,500 NGOs. El Salvador’s foreign agents bill arrives alongside other alarming moves, including arrest warrants against El Faro journalists, the arrest of human rights lawyer Ruth López, and the detention of more than 200 Venezuelan migrants under dubious claims of gang affiliation.

China | Injects Billions to Stabilize Economy

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has injected $138 billion in liquidity through interest rate cuts and a 0.5% reduction in banks’ reserve requirements, in effect expanding the money supply by 12.5% year-over-year. While the state eases monetary conditions to prop up a fragile system, ordinary citizens are left scrambling to preserve the value of their savings. Bitcoin/CNY trading volumes jumped over 20% in response, as people sought refuge from a weakening yuan. But while some can quietly escape to harder money, others are trapped in a system that treats access to money as a privilege. In Hunan, an elderly woman in a wheelchair died outside a bank after being forced to appear in person to withdraw her own money for medical care. Too weak to pass mandatory facial recognition scans, she collapsed after repeated failed attempts.

World | Authoritarian Regimes Lead CBDC Push, Study Finds

A new international study from the Nottingham Business School, part of Nottingham Trent University in England, set out to understand what is driving countries to pursue central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Researchers found the answer lies mostly in political motives. Analyzing 68 countries, the report revealed that authoritarian governments are pushing CBDCs most aggressively, using their centralized power to hastily roll out CBDCs that can monitor transactions, restrict the movement of money, and suppress dissent. On the other hand, the report found democracies are moving more cautiously, weighing concerns over privacy, transparency, and public trust. The study also noted a correlation: countries with high levels of perceived corruption are more likely to explore CBDCs, often framing them as tools to fight illicit finance. These findings are consistent with HRF’s research, revealing nearly half the global population lives under an authoritarian regime experimenting with a CBDC.

Thailand | Plans to Issue New “Investment Token”

Thailand’s Ministry of Finance plans to issue 5 billion baht ($151 million) worth of “G-Tokens,” a new digital investment scheme that allows Thais to buy government bonds for as little as 100 baht ($3). Officials claim the project will democratize access to state-backed investments and offer higher returns than traditional bank deposits. But in a country rapidly advancing central bank digital currency (CBDC) infrastructure, this initiative raises apparent concerns. The move closely follows Thailand’s repeated digital cash handouts via a state-run wallet app, which restricts spending, tracks user behavior, and enforces expiration dates on money, all clear hallmarks of a CBDC. Luckily, the Thai government postponed the latest handout, but the infrastructure remains. Framing this project as inclusionary masks the reality: Thailand is building state-run digital systems that give the regime more power over citizens’ savings and spending.

Russia | Outlaws Amnesty International

Russia officially banned Amnesty International, designating it as an “undesirable organization” and criminalizing cooperation with the global human rights group. Russian officials claim Amnesty promotes “Russophobic projects” and undermines national security. This adds to the Kremlin’s assault on dissent, targeting human rights advocates, independent journalists, and civil society in the years since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The designation exposes anyone financially, publicly, or privately supporting Amnesty’s work to prosecution and imprisonment up to five years. With more than 220 organizations now blacklisted, Russia is systematically cutting off avenues for international accountability and isolating Russians from external support.

BITCOIN AND FREEDOM TECH NEWS

ChapSmart | Permissionless Remittances in Tanzania

ChapSmart is a Bitcoin-powered remittance service that allows users to send money to individuals and families in Tanzania while having it disbursed in Tanzanian shillings (TZS) via M-PESA. With ChapSmart, no account is needed: just enter your name, email, and the recipient’s M-Pesa details. Choose how much USD to send, pay in bitcoin via the Lightning Network, and ChapSmart delivers Tanzanian shillings instantly to the recipient's M-Pesa account with zero fees. This tool is especially useful as Tanzania’s regime enacts restrictions on foreign currencies, banning most citizens from quoting prices or accepting payment in anything other than TZS. ChapSmart offers a practical and accessible way for families, nonprofits, and individuals to access value from abroad using Bitcoin, even as the state tries to shut out financial alternatives.

Bitkey | Multisignature for Families Protecting Wealth from State Seizure

Decades ago, Ivy Galindo’s family lost their savings overnight when the Brazilian government froze citizens’ bank accounts to “fight inflation.” That moment shaped her understanding of financial repression and why permissionless tools like Bitcoin are essential. When her parents later chose to start saving in Bitcoin, Ivy knew a wallet with a single private key wasn’t enough, as it can be lost, stolen, or handed over under pressure or coercion from corrupt law enforcement or state officials. Multisignature (multisig) wallets, which require approval from multiple private keys to move funds, offer stronger protection against this loss and coercion and eliminate any single points of failure in a Bitcoin self-custody setup. But multisig setups are often too technical for everyday families. Enter Bitkey. This multisig device offered Ivy’s family a simple, secure way to share custody of their Bitcoin in the face of financial repression. In places where wealth confiscation and frozen bank accounts are a lived reality, multisignature wallets can help families stay in full control of their savings.

Parasite Pool | New Zero-Fee, Lightning Native Bitcoin Mining Pool

Parasite Pool is a new open-source Bitcoin mining pool built for home miners who want to contribute to Bitcoin’s decentralization without relying on the large and centralized mining pools. It charges zero fees and offers Lightning-native payouts with a low 10-satoshi threshold, allowing individuals to earn directly and instantly. Notably, it has a “pleb eat first” reward structure, which allocates 1 BTC to the block finder and splits the remaining 2.125 BTC plus fees among all non-winning participants via Lightning. This favors small-scale miners, who can earn outsized rewards relative to their hashpower, inverting the corporate bias of legacy mining pools. This makes Parasite Pool especially attractive for small scale miners, such as those operating in authoritarian contexts who need to mine discreetly and independently. In turn, these very same miners contribute to the Bitcoin network’s resistance to censorship, regulatory capture, and corporate control, ensuring it remains a tool for freedom and peaceful resistance for those who need it most. Learn more about the mining pool here.

Cake Wallet | Implements Payjoin V2

Cake Wallet, a non-custodial, privacy-focused, and open-source mobile Bitcoin wallet, released version 4.28, bringing Payjoin V2 to its user base. Payjoin is a privacy technique that allows two users to contribute an input to a Bitcoin transaction, breaking the common chain analysis heuristic that assumes a sender owns all inputs. This makes it harder for dictators to trace payments or link the identities of activists or nonprofits. Unlike the original Payjoin, which required both the sender and recipient to be online and operate a Payjoin server, Payjoin v2 removes both barriers and introduces asynchronous transactions and serverless communication. This means users can now conduct private transactions without coordination or technical setup, making private Bitcoin transactions much more accessible and expanding the tools dissidents have to transact in the face of censorship, extortion, and surveillance. HRF is pleased to have sponsored the Payjoin V2 specification with a bounty and is happy to see this functionality now in the wild.

Mi Primer Bitcoin | Receives Grant from startsmall

Mi Primer Bitcoin, a nonprofit organization supporting independent Bitcoin education in Central America, announced that it received a $1 million grant from Jack Dorsey’s startsmall public fund. This support will accelerate Mi Primer Bitcoin’s impartial, community-led, Bitcoin-only education. The initiative has trained tens of thousands of students while supporting over 65 grassroots projects across 35+ countries through its Independent Bitcoin Educators Node Network, pushing financial freedom forward where needed most. The Mi Primer Bitcoin (MPB) team stresses the importance of remaining free from government or corporate influence to preserve the integrity of their mission. As founder John Dennehy puts it, “Education will be captured by whoever funds it… We need to create alternative models for the revolution of Bitcoin education to realize its full potential.” MPB has been adopted by many education initiatives working under authoritarian regimes.

Phoenix Wallet | Introduces Unlimited BOLT 12 Offers and Manual Backup Options

Phoenix Wallet, a mobile Bitcoin Lightning wallet, introduced support for unlimited BOLT 12 offers in its v2.6.0 update, allowing users to generate as many reusable Lightning invoices as they like. These offers, which function like static Bitcoin addresses, remain permanently valid and can now include a custom description and amount — ideal for nonprofits or dissidents who need to receive regular donations discreetly. The update also introduces manual export and import of the payments database on Android, enabling users to securely transfer their payment history to new devices. These updates strengthen Phoenix’s position as one of the most user-friendly and feature-complete non-custodial Lightning wallets. BOLT 12 — once a pipe dream — is now a usable activist tool on popularly accessible mobile wallets.

RECOMMENDED CONTENT

Bitcoin Is Not a Security: Why Nigeria’s New Investment and Security Act Misses the Mark by Farida Nabourema

In this article, Togolese human rights advocate Farida Nabourema critiques Nigeria’s 2025 Investment and Securities Act for classifying Bitcoin as a security. Nabourema argues this approach is flawed, economically damaging, disconnected from the realities of Bitcoin usage and innovation across Africa, and an attempt to constrict a human rights tool. She warns that this regulatory framework risks stifling builders and harming the very communities that Bitcoin is helping in a context of widespread currency devaluations, inflation, and exclusion. Read it here.

Ask Me Anything with Anita Posch on Stacker News

After spending five months traveling through countries like Kenya and Zimbabwe, Bitcoin for Fairness Founder Anita Posch joined Stacker News for an Ask Me Anything (AMA) to discuss her view on Bitcoin adoption across the continent. She highlighted major progress since 2020, noting that several grassroots initiatives she supported have become self-sufficient and are now running their own education programs. Despite persistent challenges, like wallet usability, high on-chain fees, and Bitcoin’s misunderstood reputation, she shared stories of real-life impact, including cross-border remittances using mobile airtime and widespread Lightning use via apps like Tando in Kenya. Read the full conversation here.

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Support the newsletter by donating bitcoin to HRF’s Financial Freedom program via BTCPay.\ Want to contribute to the newsletter? Submit tips, stories, news, and ideas by emailing us at ffreport @ hrf.org

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@ 7e6f9018:a6bbbce5

Per les xarxes socials es parla amb efusivitat de que Bitcoin arribarà a valer milions de dòlars. El mateix Hal Finney allà pel 2009, va estimar el potencial, en un cas extrem, de 10 milions $:

\> As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. Withn 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million. <https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/emails/bitcoin-list/threads/4/>

No estic d'acord amb els càlculs del bo d'en Hal, ja que no consider que la valoració d'una moneda funcioni així. En qualsevol cas, el 2009 la capitalització de la riquesa mundial era de 300 bilions $, avui és de 660 bilions $, és a dir ha anat pujant un 5,3% de manera anual, $$(660/300)^{1/15} = 1.053$$

La primera apreciació amb aquest augment anual del 5% és que si algú llegeix aquest article i té diners que no necessita aturats al banc (estalvis), ara és bon moment per començar a moure'ls, encara sigui amb moviments defensius (títols de deute governamental o la propietat del primer habitatge). La desagregació per actius dels 660 bilions és:

1. Immobiliari residencial = 260 bilions $

2. Títols de deute = 125 bilions $

3. Accions = 110 bilions

4. Diners fiat = 78 bilions $

5. Terres agrícoles = 35 bilions $

6. Immobiliari comercial = 32 bilions $

7. Or = 18 bilions $

8. Bitcoin = 2 bilions $

La riquesa mundial és major que 660 bilions, però aquests 8 actius crec que són els principals, ja que s'aprecien a dia d'avui. El PIB global anual és de 84 bilions $, que no són bromes, però aquest actius creats (cotxes, ordinadors, roba, aliments...), perden valor una vegada produïts, aproximant-se a 0 passades unes dècades.

Partint d'aquest nombres com a vàlids, la meva posició base respecte de Bitcoin, ja des de fa un parell d'anys, és que te capacitat per posar-se al nivell de capitalització de l'or, perquè conceptualment s'emulen bé, i perquè tot i que Bitcoin no té un valor tangible industrial com pot tenir l'or, sí que te un valor intangible tecnològic, que és pales en tot l'ecosistema que s'ha creat al seu voltant:

• Creació de tecnologies de pagament instantani: la Lightning Network, Cashu i la Liquid Network.

• Producció d'aplicacions amb l'íntegrament de pagaments instantanis. Especialment destacar el protocol de Nostr (Primal, Amethyst, Damus, Yakihonne, 0xChat...)

• Industria energètica: permet estabilitzar xarxes elèctriques i emprar energia malbaratada (flaring gas), amb la generació de demanda de hardware i software dedicat.

• Educació financera i defensa de drets humans. És una eina de defensa contra governs i estats repressius. La Human Rights Foundation fa una feina bastant destacada d'educació.

Ara posem el potencial en nombres:

• Si iguala l'empresa amb major capitalització, que és Apple, arribaria a uns 160 mil dòlars per bitcoin.

• Si iguala el nivell de l'or, arribaria a uns 800 mil dòlars per bitcoin.

• Si iguala el nivell del diner fiat líquid, arribaria a un 3.7 milions de dòlars per bitcoin.

Crec que igualar la capitalització d'Apple és probable en els pròxims 5 - 10 anys. També igualar el nivell de l'or en els pròxims 20 anys em sembla una fita possible. Ara bé, qualsevol fita per sota d'aquesta capitalització ha d'implicar tota una serie de successos al món que no sóc capaç d'imaginar. Que no vol dir que no pugui passar.

@ 7e6f9018:a6bbbce5

Over the last decade, birth rates in Spain have dropped by 30%, from 486,000 births in 2010 to 339,000 in 2020, a decline only comparable to that seen in Japan and the Four Asian Tigers.

The main cause seems to stem from two major factors: (1) the widespread use of contraceptive methods, which allow for pregnancy control without reducing sexual activity, and (2) women's entry into the labor market, leading to a significant shift away from traditional maternal roles.

In this regard, there is a phenomenon of demographic inertia that I believe could become significant. When a society ages and the population pyramid inverts, the burden this places on the non-dependent population could further contribute to a deeper decline in birth rates.

The more resources (time and money) non-dependent individuals have to dedicate to the elderly (dependents), the less they can allocate to producing new births (also dependents):

• An only child who has to care for both parents will bear a burden of 2 (2 ÷ 1).
• Three siblings who share the responsibility of caring for their parents will bear a burden of 0.6 (2 ÷ 3).

This burden on only children could, in many cases, be significant enough to prevent them from having children of their own.

In Spain, the generation of only children reached reproductive age in 2019(*), this means that right now the majority of people in reproductive age in Spain are only child (or getting very close to it).

If this assumption is correct, and aging feeds on itself, then, given that Spain has one of the worst demographic imbalances in the world, this phenomenon is likely to manifest through worsening birth rates. Spain’s current birth rate of 1.1 may not yet have reached its lowest point.

(*)Birth rate table and the year in which each generation reaches 32 years of age, Spain.

| Year of birth | Birth rate | Year in which the generation turns 32 | | ------------------ | -------------- | ----------------------------------------- | | 1971 | 2.88 | 2003 | | 1972 | 2.85 | 2004 | | 1973 | 2.82 | 2005 | | 1974 | 2.81 | 2006 | | 1975 | 2.77 | 2007 | | 1976 | 2.77 | 2008 | | 1977 | 2.65 | 2009 | | 1978 | 2.54 | 2010 | | 1979 | 2.37 | 2011 | | 1980 | 2.21 | 2012 | | 1981 | 2.04 | 2013 | | 1982 | 1.94 | 2014 | | 1983 | 1.80 | 2015 | | 1984 | 1.72 | 2016 | | 1985 | 1.64 | 2017 | | 1986 | 1.55 | 2018 | | 1987 | 1.49 | 2019 | | 1988 | 1.45 | 2020 | | 1989 | 1.40 | 2021 | | 1990 | 1.36 | 2022 | | 1991 | 1.33 | 2023 | | 1992 | 1.31 | 2024 | | 1993 | 1.26 | 2025 | | 1994 | 1.19 | 2026 | | 1995 | 1.16 | 2027 | | 1996 | 1.14 | 2028 | | 1997 | 1.15 | 2029 | | 1998 | 1.13 | 2030 | | 1999 | 1.16 | 2031 | | 2000 | 1.21 | 2032 | | 2001 | 1.24 | 2033 | | 2002 | 1.25 | 2034 | | 2003 | 1.30 | 2035 | | 2004 | 1.32 | 2036 | | 2005 | 1.33 | 2037 | | 2006 | 1.36 | 2038 | | 2007 | 1.38 | 2039 | | 2008 | 1.44 | 2040 | | 2009 | 1.38 | 2041 | | 2010 | 1.37 | 2042 | | 2011 | 1.34 | 2043 | | 2012 | 1.32 | 2044 | | 2013 | 1.27 | 2045 | | 2014 | 1.32 | 2046 | | 2015 | 1.33 | 2047 | | 2016 | 1.34 | 2048 | | 2017 | 1.31 | 2049 | | 2018 | 1.26 | 2050 | | 2019 | 1.24 | 2051 | | 2020 | 1.19 | 2052 |

@ 4fa5d1c4:fd6c6e41

🧠 Entwickelt von OECD & EU-Kommission – jetzt zur Rückmeldung freigegeben:\ 👉 https://ailiteracyframework.org/

Das Framework beschreibt vier zentrale Domänen der KI-Kompetenz – jede mit einem klaren Profil aus Wissen, Fertigkeiten und Haltungen. Diese lassen sich hervorragend mit den vier Kompetenzbereichen verbinden:

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Lernende erkennen KI in ihrem Alltag, verstehen ihre technischen Grundlagen (📘 Knowledge) und entwickeln die Fähigkeit, Ausgaben kritisch zu analysieren (🛠️ Skills), begleitet von einer neugierigen und verantwortungsbewussten Einstellung (🧭 Attitudes).

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Durch den kreativen Einsatz generativer KI entstehen neue Lernprodukte. Benötigt werden technisches Verständnis (📘 z. B. zu Trainingsdaten), Anwendungskompetenz (🛠️ z. B. Promptgestaltung), sowie eine innovationsorientierte Haltung (🧭 Ownership, Urheberrecht, Attribution).

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Hier geht es um bewusste Entscheidungen: Wann ist KI sinnvoll? Wie wirken sich ihre Vorschläge auf mein Denken aus? Das verlangt (📘) Orientierungswissen, (🛠️) strategisches Problemlösen und (🧭) eine ethisch begründbare Reflexion.

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