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@ b7274d28:c99628cb
2025-05-24 01:02:32A few months ago, a nostrich was switching from iOS to Android and asked for suggestions for #Nostr apps to try out. nostr:npub18ams6ewn5aj2n3wt2qawzglx9mr4nzksxhvrdc4gzrecw7n5tvjqctp424 offered the following as his response:
nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzq0mhp4ja8fmy48zuk5p6uy37vtk8tx9dqdwcxm32sy8nsaa8gkeyqydhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgunsd3jkyuewvdhk6tcpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhszythwden5te0dehhxarj9emkjmn99uqzpwwts6n28eyvjpcwvu5akkwu85eg92dpvgw7cgmpe4czdadqvnv984rl0z
Yes. #Android users are fortunate to have some powerful Nostr apps and tools at our disposal that simply have no comparison over on the iOS side. However, a tool is only as good as the knowledge of the user, who must have an understanding of how best to wield it for maximum effect. This fact was immediately evidenced by replies to Derek asking, "What is the use case for Citrine?" and "This is the first time I'm hearing about Citrine and Pokey. Can you give me links for those?"
Well, consider this tutorial your Nostr starter-kit for Android. We'll go over installing and setting up Amber, Amethyst, Citrine, and Pokey, and as a bonus we'll be throwing in the Zapstore and Coinos to boot. We will assume no previous experience with any of the above, so if you already know all about one or more of these apps, you can feel free to skip that tutorial.
So many apps...
You may be wondering, "Why do I need so many apps to use Nostr?" That's perfectly valid, and the honest answer is, you don't. You can absolutely just install a Nostr client from the Play Store, have it generate your Nostr identity for you, and stick with the default relays already set up in that app. You don't even need to connect a wallet, if you don't want to. However, you won't experience all that Nostr has to offer if that is as far as you go, any more than you would experience all that Italian cuisine has to offer if you only ever try spaghetti.
Nostr is not just one app that does one thing, like Facebook, Twitter, or TikTok. It is an entire ecosystem of applications that are all built on top of a protocol that allows them to be interoperable. This set of tools will help you make the most out of that interoperability, which you will never get from any of the big-tech social platforms. It will provide a solid foundation for you to build upon as you explore more and more of what Nostr has to offer.
So what do these apps do?
Fundamental to everything you do on Nostr is the need to cryptographically sign with your private key. If you aren't sure what that means, just imagine that you had to enter your password every time you hit the "like" button on Facebook, or every time you commented on the latest dank meme. That would get old really fast, right? That's effectively what Nostr requires, but on steroids.
To keep this from being something you manually have to do every 5 seconds when you post a note, react to someone else's note, or add a comment, Nostr apps can store your private key and use it to sign behind the scenes for you. This is very convenient, but it means you are trusting that app to not do anything with your private key that you don't want it to. You are also trusting it to not leak your private key, because anyone who gets their hands on it will be able to post as you, see your private messages, and effectively be you on Nostr. The more apps you give your private key to, the greater your risk that it will eventually be compromised.
Enter #Amber, an application that will store your private key in only one app, and all other compatible Nostr apps can communicate with it to request a signature, without giving any of those other apps access to your private key.
Most Nostr apps for Android now support logging in and signing with Amber, and you can even use it to log into apps on other devices, such as some of the web apps you use on your PC. It's an incredible tool given to us by nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5, and only available for Android users. Those on iPhone are incredibly jealous that they don't have anything comparable, yet.
Speaking of nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5, the next app is also one of his making.
All Nostr data is stored on relays, which are very simple servers that Nostr apps read notes from and write notes to. In most forms of social media, it can be a pain to get your own data out to keep a backup. That's not the case on Nostr. Anyone can run their own relay, either for the sake of backing up their personal notes, or for others to post their notes to, as well.
Since Nostr notes take up very little space, you can actually run a relay on your phone. I have been on Nostr for almost 2 and a half years, and I have 25,000+ notes of various kinds on my relay, and a backup of that full database is just 24MB on my phone's storage.
Having that backup can save your bacon if you try out a new Nostr client and it doesn't find your existing follow list for some reason, so it writes a new one and you suddenly lose all of the people you were following. Just pop into your #Citrine relay, confirm it still has your correct follow list or import it from a recent backup, then have Citrine restore it. Done.
Additionally, there are things you may want to only save to a relay you control, such as draft messages that you aren't ready to post publicly, or eCash tokens, which can actually be saved to Nostr relays now. Citrine can also be used with Amber for signing into certain Nostr applications that use a relay to communicate with Amber.
If you are really adventurous, you can also expose Citrine over Tor to be used as an outbox relay, or used for peer-to-peer private messaging, but that is far more involved than the scope of this tutorial series.
You can't get far in Nostr without a solid and reliable client to interact with. #Amethyst is the client we will be using for this tutorial because there simply isn't another Android client that comes close, so far. Moreover, it can be a great client for new users to get started on, and yet it has a ton of features for power-users to take advantage of as well.
There are plenty of other good clients to check out over time, such as Coracle, YakiHonne, Voyage, Olas, Flotilla and others, but I keep coming back to Amethyst, and by the time you finish this tutorial, I think you'll see why. nostr:npub1gcxzte5zlkncx26j68ez60fzkvtkm9e0vrwdcvsjakxf9mu9qewqlfnj5z and others who have contributed to Amethyst have really built something special in this client, and it just keeps improving with every update that's shipped.
Most social media apps have some form of push notifications, and some Nostr apps do, too. Where the issue comes in is that Nostr apps are all interoperable. If you have more than one application, you're going to have both of them notifying you. Nostr users are known for having five or more Nostr apps that they use regularly. If all of them had notifications turned on, it would be a nightmare. So maybe you limit it to only one of your Nostr apps having notifications turned on, but then you are pretty well locked-in to opening that particular app when you tap on the notification.
Pokey, by nostr:npub1v3tgrwwsv7c6xckyhm5dmluc05jxd4yeqhpxew87chn0kua0tjzqc6yvjh, solves this issue, allowing you to turn notifications off for all of your Nostr apps, and have Pokey handle them all for you. Then, when you tap on a Pokey notification, you can choose which Nostr app to open it in.
Pokey also gives you control over the types of things you want to be notified about. Maybe you don't care about reactions, and you just want to know about zaps, comments, and direct messages. Pokey has you covered. It even supports multiple accounts, so you can get notifications for all the npubs you control.
One of the most unique and incredibly fun aspects of Nostr is the ability to send and receive #zaps. Instead of merely giving someone a 👍️ when you like something they said, you can actually send them real value in the form of sats, small portions of a Bitcoin. There is nothing quite like the experience of receiving your first zap and realizing that someone valued what you said enough to send you a small amount (and sometimes not so small) of #Bitcoin, the best money mankind has ever known.
To be able to have that experience, though, you are going to need a wallet that can send and receive zaps, and preferably one that is easy to connect to Nostr applications. My current preference for that is Alby Hub, but not everyone wants to deal with all that comes along with running a #Lightning node. That being the case, I have opted to use nostr:npub1h2qfjpnxau9k7ja9qkf50043xfpfy8j5v60xsqryef64y44puwnq28w8ch for this tutorial, because they offer one of the easiest wallets to set up, and it connects to most Nostr apps by just copy/pasting a connection string from the settings in the wallet into the settings in your Nostr app of choice.
Additionally, even though #Coinos is a custodial wallet, you can have it automatically transfer any #sats over a specified threshold to a separate wallet, allowing you to mitigate the custodial risk without needing to keep an eye on your balance and make the transfer manually.
Most of us on Android are used to getting all of our mobile apps from one souce: the Google Play Store. That's not possible for this tutorial series. Only one of the apps mentioned above is available in Google's permissioned playground. However, on Android we have the advantage of being able to install whatever we want on our device, just by popping into our settings and flipping a toggle. Indeed, thumbing our noses at big-tech is at the heart of the Nostr ethos, so why would we make ourselves beholden to Google for installing Nostr apps?
The nostr:npub10r8xl2njyepcw2zwv3a6dyufj4e4ajx86hz6v4ehu4gnpupxxp7stjt2p8 is an alternative app store made by nostr:npub1wf4pufsucer5va8g9p0rj5dnhvfeh6d8w0g6eayaep5dhps6rsgs43dgh9 as a resource for all sorts of open-source apps, but especially Nostr apps. What is more, you can log in with Amber, connect a wallet like Coinos, and support the developers of your favorite Nostr apps directly within the #Zapstore by zapping their app releases.
One of the biggest features of the Zapstore is the fact that developers can cryptographically sign their app releases using their Nostr keys, so you know that the app you are downloading is the one they actually released and hasn't been altered in any way. The Zapstore will warn you and won't let you install the app if the signature is invalid.
Getting Started
Since the Zapstore will be the source we use for installing most of the other apps mentioned, we will start with installing the Zapstore.
We will then use the Zapstore to install Amber and set it up with our Nostr account, either by creating a new private key, or by importing one we already have. We'll also use it to log into the Zapstore.
Next, we will install Amethyst from the Zapstore and log into it via Amber.
After this, we will install Citrine from the Zapstore and add it as a local relay on Amethyst.
Because we want to be able to send and receive zaps, we will set up a wallet with CoinOS and connect it to Amethyst and the Zapstore using Nostr Wallet Connect.
Finally, we will install Pokey using the Zapstore, log into it using Amber, and set up the notifications we want to receive.
By the time you are done with this series, you will have a great head-start on your Nostr journey compared to muddling through it all on your own. Moreover, you will have developed a familiarity with how things generally work on Nostr that can be applied to other apps you try out in the future.
Continue to Part 2: Installing the Zapstore. (Coming Soon)
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@ 909e3fdc:73f2b10a
2025-05-22 02:14:38Pizza Day’s not really about pizza. It’s about Laszlo exhibiting Bitcoin as a P2P payment mechanism. That’s worth a cheers. In 15 years, Bitcoin went from a nerdy experiment to challenging the fiat system. That’s massive! It’s changed how I see the world. Patient hodling and carnivore-focus, practices that I picked up from the bitcoin community, shifted me from kinda nihilistic to stupidly optimistic. So, definitely celebrate Pizza Day. Or maybe barbecue steaks instead. Commiserate on the frivolous purchases that you made with bitcoin in the day. I think of these sometimes. Honour Laszlo’s pioneer vibe and Bitcoin’s insane rise, but keep your eyes on what’s coming. The future’s gonna be wilder than we think.
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@ 21335073:a244b1ad
2025-05-21 16:58:36The other day, I had the privilege of sitting down with one of my favorite living artists. Our conversation was so captivating that I felt compelled to share it. I’m leaving his name out for privacy.
Since our last meeting, I’d watched a documentary about his life, one he’d helped create. I told him how much I admired his openness in it. There’s something strange about knowing intimate details of someone’s life when they know so little about yours—it’s almost like I knew him too well for the kind of relationship we have.
He paused, then said quietly, with a shy grin, that watching the documentary made him realize how “odd and eccentric” he is. I laughed and told him he’s probably the sanest person I know. Because he’s lived fully, chasing love, passion, and purpose with hardly any regrets. He’s truly lived.
Today, I turn 44, and I’ll admit I’m a bit eccentric myself. I think I came into the world this way. I’ve made mistakes along the way, but I carry few regrets. Every misstep taught me something. And as I age, I’m not interested in blending in with the world—I’ll probably just lean further into my own brand of “weird.” I want to live life to the brim. The older I get, the more I see that the “normal” folks often seem less grounded than the eccentric artists who dare to live boldly. Life’s too short to just exist, actually live.
I’m not saying to be strange just for the sake of it. But I’ve seen what the crowd celebrates, and I’m not impressed. Forge your own path, even if it feels lonely or unpopular at times.
It’s easy to scroll through the news and feel discouraged. But actually, this is one of the most incredible times to be alive! I wake up every day grateful to be here, now. The future is bursting with possibility—I can feel it.
So, to my fellow weirdos on nostr: stay bold. Keep dreaming, keep pushing, no matter what’s trending. Stay wild enough to believe in a free internet for all. Freedom is radical—hold it tight. Live with the soul of an artist and the grit of a fighter. Thanks for inspiring me and so many others to keep hoping. Thank you all for making the last year of my life so special.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:51What is KYC/AML?
- The acronym stands for Know Your Customer / Anti Money Laundering.
- In practice it stands for the surveillance measures companies are often compelled to take against their customers by financial regulators.
- Methods differ but often include: Passport Scans, Driver License Uploads, Social Security Numbers, Home Address, Phone Number, Face Scans.
- Bitcoin companies will also store all withdrawal and deposit addresses which can then be used to track bitcoin transactions on the bitcoin block chain.
- This data is then stored and shared. Regulations often require companies to hold this information for a set number of years but in practice users should assume this data will be held indefinitely. Data is often stored insecurely, which results in frequent hacks and leaks.
- KYC/AML data collection puts all honest users at risk of theft, extortion, and persecution while being ineffective at stopping crime. Criminals often use counterfeit, bought, or stolen credentials to get around the requirements. Criminals can buy "verified" accounts for as little as $200. Furthermore, billions of people are excluded from financial services as a result of KYC/AML requirements.
During the early days of bitcoin most services did not require this sensitive user data, but as adoption increased so did the surveillance measures. At this point, most large bitcoin companies are collecting and storing massive lists of bitcoiners, our sensitive personal information, and our transaction history.
Lists of Bitcoiners
KYC/AML policies are a direct attack on bitcoiners. Lists of bitcoiners and our transaction history will inevitably be used against us.
Once you are on a list with your bitcoin transaction history that record will always exist. Generally speaking, tracking bitcoin is based on probability analysis of ownership change. Surveillance firms use various heuristics to determine if you are sending bitcoin to yourself or if ownership is actually changing hands. You can obtain better privacy going forward by using collaborative transactions such as coinjoin to break this probability analysis.
Fortunately, you can buy bitcoin without providing intimate personal information. Tools such as peach, hodlhodl, robosats, azteco and bisq help; mining is also a solid option: anyone can plug a miner into power and internet and earn bitcoin by mining privately.
You can also earn bitcoin by providing goods and/or services that can be purchased with bitcoin. Long term, circular economies will mitigate this threat: most people will not buy bitcoin - they will earn bitcoin - most people will not sell bitcoin - they will spend bitcoin.
There is no such thing as KYC or No KYC bitcoin, there are bitcoiners on lists and those that are not on lists.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:51The former seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.
The latter's future remains to be seen. Dependence on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.
— ODELL (@ODELL) October 27, 2022
The Basics
- Lightning is a protocol that enables cheap and fast native bitcoin transactions.
- At the core of the protocol is the ability for bitcoin users to create a payment channel with another user.
- These payment channels enable users to make many bitcoin transactions between each other with only two on-chain bitcoin transactions: the channel open transaction and the channel close transaction.
- Essentially lightning is a protocol for interoperable batched bitcoin transactions.
- It is expected that on chain bitcoin transaction fees will increase with adoption and the ability to easily batch transactions will save users significant money.
- As these lightning transactions are processed, liquidity flows from one side of a channel to the other side, on chain transactions are signed by both parties but not broadcasted to update this balance.
- Lightning is designed to be trust minimized, either party in a payment channel can close the channel at any time and their bitcoin will be settled on chain without trusting the other party.
There is no 'Lightning Network'
- Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise.
- There are many lightning channels between many different users and funds can flow across interconnected channels as long as there is a route through peers.
- If a lightning transaction requires multiple hops it will flow through multiple interconnected channels, adjusting the balance of all channels along the route, and paying lightning transaction fees that are set by each node on the route.
Example: You have a channel with Bob. Bob has a channel with Charlie. You can pay Charlie through your channel with Bob and Bob's channel with User C.
- As a result, it is not guaranteed that every lightning user can pay every other lightning user, they must have a route of interconnected channels between sender and receiver.
Lightning in Practice
- Lightning has already found product market fit and usage as an interconnected payment protocol between large professional custodians.
- They are able to easily manage channels and liquidity between each other without trust using this interoperable protocol.
- Lightning payments between large custodians are fast and easy. End users do not have to run their own node or manage their channels and liquidity. These payments rarely fail due to professional management of custodial nodes.
- The tradeoff is one inherent to custodians and other trusted third parties. Custodial wallets can steal funds and compromise user privacy.
Sovereign Lightning
- Trusted third parties are security holes.
- Users must run their own node and manage their own channels in order to use lightning without trusting a third party. This remains the single largest friction point for sovereign lightning usage: the mental burden of actively running a lightning node and associated liquidity management.
- Bitcoin development prioritizes node accessibility so cost to self host your own node is low but if a node is run at home or office, Tor or a VPN is recommended to mask your IP address: otherwise it is visible to the entire network and represents a privacy risk.
- This privacy risk is heightened due to the potential for certain governments to go after sovereign lightning users and compel them to shutdown their nodes. If their IP Address is exposed they are easier to target.
- Fortunately the tools to run and manage nodes continue to get easier but it is important to understand that this will always be a friction point when compared to custodial services.
The Potential Fracture of Lightning
- Any lightning user can choose which users are allowed to open channels with them.
- One potential is that professional custodians only peer with other professional custodians.
- We already see nodes like those run by CashApp only have channels open with other regulated counterparties. This could be due to performance goals, liability reduction, or regulatory pressure.
- Fortunately some of their peers are connected to non-regulated parties so payments to and from sovereign lightning users are still successfully processed by CashApp but this may not always be the case going forward.
Summary
- Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise. There is no singular 'Lightning Network' but rather many payment channels between distinct peers, some connected with each other and some not.
- Lightning as an interoperable payment protocol between professional custodians seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.
- Lightning as a robust sovereign payment protocol has yet to be battle tested. Heavy reliance on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, the friction of active liquidity management, significant on chain fee burden for small amounts, interactivity constraints on mobile, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.
If you have never used lightning before, use this guide to get started on your phone.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 2e941ad1:fac7c2d0
2025-05-25 15:28:11Unlocks: 31
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@ 9223d2fa:b57e3de7
2025-05-25 15:28:101,465 steps
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:48Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
- Coinswap is a decentralized protocol for private, trustless cryptocurrency swaps. It allows participants to securely swap digital assets without intermediaries, using advanced cryptographic techniques and atomic swaps to ensure privacy and security.
- This release introduces major improvements to the protocol's efficiency, security, and usability, including custom in-memory UTXO indexes, more advanced coin-selection algorithms, fidelity bond management and more.
- The update also improves user experience with full Mac support, faster Tor connections, enhanced UI/UX, a unified API, and improved protocol documentation.
"The Project is under active beta development and open for contributions and beta testing. The Coinswap market place is live in testnet4. Bug fixes and feature requests are very much welcome."
- Manuals and demo docs are available here.
What's new
- Core protocol and performance improvements:
- Custom in-memory UTXO indexes. Frequent Core RPC calls, which caused significant delays, have been eliminated by implementing custom in-memory UTXO indexes. These indexes are also saved to disk, leading to faster wallet synchronization.
- Coin selection. Advanced coin-selection algorithms, like those in Bitcoin Core, have been incorporated, enhancing the efficiency of creating different types of transactions.
- Fidelity management. Maker servers now automate tasks such as checking bond expiries, redemption, and recreation for Fidelity Bonds, reducing the user's management responsibilities.
- Taker liveness. The
WaitingFundingConfirmation
message has been added to keep swap connections between Takers and Makers, assisting with variable block confirmation delays.
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User experience and compatibility:
- Mac compatibility. The crate and apps now fully support Mac.
- Tor operations are streamlined for faster, more resilient connections. Tor addresses are now consistently linked to the wallet seed, maintaining the same onion address through system reboots.
- The UI/UX improvements enhance the display of balances, UTXOs, offer data, fidelity bonds, and system logs. These updates make the apps more enjoyable and provide clearer coin swap logs during the swap process.
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API design improvements. Transaction creation routines have been streamlined to use a single common API, which reduces technical debt and eliminates redundant code.
- Protocol spec documentation now details how Coinswap breaks the transaction graph and improves privacy through routed swaps and amount splitting, and includes diagrams for clarity.
Source: Coinswap Protocol specification.
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:47Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
- The latest firmware updates for COLDCARD devices introduce two major features: COLDCARD Co-sign (CCC) and Key Teleport between two COLDCARD Q devices using QR codes and/or NFC with a website.
What's new
- COLDCARD Co-Sign: When CCC is enabled, a second seed called the Spending Policy Key (Key C) is added to the device. This seed works with the device's Main Seed and one or more additional XPUBs (Backup Keys) to form 2-of-N multisig wallets.
- The spending policy functions like a hardware security module (HSM), enforcing rules such as magnitude and velocity limits, address whitelisting, and 2FA authentication to protect funds while maintaining flexibility and control, and is enforced each time the Spending Policy Key is used for signing.
- When spending conditions are met, the COLDCARD signs the partially signed bitcoin transaction (PSBT) with the Main Seed and Spending Policy Key for fund access. Once configured, the Spending Policy Key is required to view or change the policy, and violations are denied without explanation.
"You can override the spending policy at any time by signing with either a Backup Key and the Main Seed or two Backup Keys, depending on the number of keys (N) in the multisig."
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A step-by-step guide for setting up CCC is available here.
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Key Teleport for Q devices allows users to securely transfer sensitive data such as seed phrases (words, xprv), secure notes and passwords, and PSBTs for multisig. It uses QR codes or NFC, along with a helper website, to ensure reliable transmission, keeping your sensitive data protected throughout the process.
- For more technical details, see the protocol spec.
"After you sign a multisig PSBT, you have option to “Key Teleport” the PSBT file to any one of the other signers in the wallet. We already have a shared pubkey with them, so the process is simple and does not require any action on their part in advance. Plus, starting in this firmware release, COLDCARD can finalize multisig transactions, so the last signer can publish the signed transaction via PushTX (NFC tap) to get it on the blockchain directly."
- Multisig transactions are finalized when sufficiently signed. It streamlines the use of PushTX with multisig wallets.
- Signing artifacts re-export to various media. Users are now provided with the capability to export signing products, like transactions or PSBTs, to alternative media rather than the original source. For example, if a PSBT is received through a QR code, it can be signed and saved onto an SD card if needed.
- Multisig export files are signed now. Public keys are encoded as P2PKH address for all multisg signature exports. Learn more about it here.
- NFC export usability upgrade: NFC keeps exporting until CANCEL/X is pressed.
- Added Bitcoin Safe option to Export Wallet.
- 10% performance improvement in USB upload speed for large files.
- Q: Always choose the biggest possible display size for QR.
Fixes
- Do not allow change Main PIN to same value already used as Trick PIN, even if Trick PIN is hidden.
- Fix stuck progress bar under
Receiving...
after a USB communications failure. - Showing derivation path in Address Explorer for root key (m) showed double slash (//).
- Can restore developer backup with custom password other than 12 words format.
- Virtual Disk auto mode ignores already signed PSBTs (with “-signed” in file name).
- Virtual Disk auto mode stuck on “Reading…” screen sometimes.
- Finalization of foreign inputs from partial signatures. Thanks Christian Uebber!
- Temporary seed from COLDCARD backup failed to load stored multisig wallets.
Destroy Seed
also removes all Trick PINs from SE2.Lock Down Seed
requires pressing confirm key (4) to execute.- Q only: Only BBQr is allowed to export Coldcard, Core, and pretty descriptor.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:51Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.
— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022
The four main banks of bitcoin and “crypto” are Signature, Prime Trust, Silvergate, and Silicon Valley Bank. Prime Trust does not custody funds themselves but rather maintains deposit accounts at BMO Harris Bank, Cross River, Lexicon Bank, MVB Bank, and Signature Bank. Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank have already stopped withdrawals. More banks will go down before the chaos stops. None of them have sufficient reserves to meet withdrawals.
Bitcoin gives us all the ability to opt out of a system that has massive layers of counterparty risk built in, years of cheap money and broken incentives have layered risk on top of risk throughout the entire global economy. If you thought the FTX bank run was painful to watch, I have bad news for you: every major bank in the world is fractional reserve. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk, as global market chaos unwinds this will become much more obvious.
The rules of bitcoin are extremely hard to change by design. Anyone can access the network directly without a trusted third party by using their own node. Owning more bitcoin does not give you more control over the network with all participants on equal footing.
Bitcoin is:
- money that is not controlled by a company or government
- money that can be spent or saved without permission
- money that is provably scarce and should increase in purchasing power with adoptionBitcoin is money without trust. Whether you are a nation state, corporation, or an individual, you can use bitcoin to spend or save without permission. Social media will accelerate the already deteriorating trust in our institutions and as this trust continues to crumble the value of trust minimized money will become obvious. As adoption increases so should the purchasing power of bitcoin.
A quick note on "stablecoins," such as USDC - it is important to remember that they rely on trusted custodians. They have the same risk as funds held directly in bank accounts with additional counterparty risk on top. The trusted custodians can be pressured by gov, exit scam, or caught up in fraud. Funds can and will be frozen at will. This is a distinctly different trust model than bitcoin, which is a native bearer token that does not rely on any centralized entity or custodian.
Most bitcoin exchanges have exposure to these failing banks. Expect more chaos and confusion as this all unwinds. Withdraw any bitcoin to your own wallet ASAP.
Simple Self Custody Guide: https://werunbtc.com/muun
More Secure Cold Storage Guide: https://werunbtc.com/coldcard
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:51The newly proposed RESTRICT ACT - is being advertised as a TikTok Ban, but is much broader than that, carries a $1M Fine and up to 20 years in prison️! It is unconstitutional and would create massive legal restrictions on the open source movement and free speech throughout the internet.
The Bill was proposed by: Senator Warner, Senator Thune, Senator Baldwin, Senator Fischer, Senator Manchin, Senator Moran, Senator Bennet, Senator Sullivan, Senator Gillibrand, Senator Collins, Senator Heinrich, and Senator Romney. It has broad support across Senators of both parties.
Corrupt politicians will not protect us. They are part of the problem. We must build, support, and learn how to use censorship resistant tools in order to defend our natural rights.
The RESTRICT Act, introduced by Senators Warner and Thune, aims to block or disrupt transactions and financial holdings involving foreign adversaries that pose risks to national security. Although the primary targets of this legislation are companies like Tik-Tok, the language of the bill could potentially be used to block or disrupt cryptocurrency transactions and, in extreme cases, block Americans’ access to open source tools or protocols like Bitcoin.
The Act creates a redundant regime paralleling OFAC without clear justification, it significantly limits the ability for injured parties to challenge actions raising due process concerns, and unlike OFAC it lacks any carve-out for protected speech. COINCENTER ON THE RESTRICT ACT
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:50@matt_odell don't you even dare not ask about nostr!
— Kukks (Andrew Camilleri) (@MrKukks) May 18, 2021
Nostr first hit my radar spring 2021: created by fellow bitcoiner and friend, fiatjaf, and released to the world as free open source software. I was fortunate to be able to host a conversation with him on Citadel Dispatch in those early days, capturing that moment in history forever. Since then, the protocol has seen explosive viral organic growth as individuals around the world have contributed their time and energy to build out the protocol and the surrounding ecosystem due to the clear need for better communication tools.
nostr is to twitter as bitcoin is to paypal
As an intro to nostr, let us start with a metaphor:
twitter is paypal - a centralized platform plagued by censorship but has the benefit of established network effects
nostr is bitcoin - an open protocol that is censorship resistant and robust but requires an organic adoption phase
Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.
- Anyone can run a relay.
- Anyone can interact with the protocol.
- Relays can choose which messages they want to relay.
- Users are identified by a simple public private key pair that they can generate themselves.Nostr is often compared to twitter since there are nostr clients that emulate twitter functionality and user interface but that is merely one application of the protocol. Nostr is so much more than a mere twitter competitor. Nostr clients and relays can transmit a wide variety of data and clients can choose how to display that information to users. The result is a revolution in communication with implications that are difficult for any of us to truly comprehend.
Similar to bitcoin, nostr is an open and permissionless protocol. No person, company, or government controls it. Anyone can iterate and build on top of nostr without permission. Together, bitcoin and nostr are incredibly complementary freedom tech tools: censorship resistant, permissionless, robust, and interoperable - money and speech protected by code and incentives, not laws.
As censorship throughout the world continues to escalate, freedom tech provides hope for individuals around the world who refuse to accept the status quo. This movement will succeed on the shoulders of those who choose to stand up and contribute. We will build our own path. A brighter path.
My Nostr Public Key: npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 8d34bd24:414be32b
2025-05-25 06:29:21It seems like most Christians today have lost their reverence and awe of God. We’ve attributed God’s awesome creation by the word of His mouth to random chance and a Big Bang. We’ve attributed the many layers of sediment to millions and billions of years of time instead of God’s judgment of evil. We’ve emphasized His love and mercy to the point that we’ve forgotten about His holiness and righteous wrath. We’ve brought God down to our level and made Him either our “buddy” or made Him our magic genie servant, who is just there to answer our every want and whim.
The God of the Bible is a holy and awesome God who should be both loved and feared.
The fear of the Lord is the beginning of knowledge;\ Fools despise wisdom and instruction. (Proverbs 1:7)
The God of the Bible is the Lord of Lords and King of Kings who “… upholds all things by the word of His power. …” (Hebrews 1:3). Yes, God loves us as sons. Yes, God is merciful. Yes, through Jesus we have the blessed opportunity to approach God directly. None of that means we get to treat God like just another friend. We are to approach God with fear and trembling and worship Him in reverence and awe.
Worship the Lord with reverence And rejoice with trembling. (Psalm 2:11)
Part of the problem is that our culture just doesn’t show reverence to authority. It focuses on self and freedom. The whole thought of reverence for authority is incomprehensible for many. Look at this Psalm of worship:
The Lord reigns, let the peoples tremble;\ He is enthroned above the cherubim, let the earth shake!\ The Lord is great in Zion,\ And He is exalted above all the peoples.\ Let them praise Your great and awesome name;\ Holy is He. (Psalm 99:1-3)
This is the way we should view God and the proper attitude for approaching God.
Another issue is that we don’t study what God has done in the past. In the Old Testament, God commanded the Israelites to setup monuments of remembrance and to teach their kids all of the great things God had done for them. When they failed to do so, Israel drifted astray.
You shall teach them to your sons, talking of them when you sit in your house and when you walk along the road and when you lie down and when you rise up. (Deuteronomy 11:19)
God has given us the Bible, His word, so that we can know Him, know His character, and know His great deeds. When we fail to be in His word daily, we can forget (or not even know) the greatness of our God.
Establish Your word to Your servant,\ As that which produces reverence for You. (Psalm 119:38)
Do you love God’s word like this? Do you hunger for God’s word? Do you seek to know everything about God that you can know? When we love someone or something, we want to know everything about it.
Princes persecute me without cause,\ But my heart stands in awe of Your words.\ **I rejoice at Your word,\ As one who finds great spoil. \ (Psalm 119:161-162) {emphasis mine}
In addition to what we can learn about God in the Bible, we also need to remember what God has done in our own lives. We need to dwell on what God has done for us. We can just try to remember. Even better (I’ll admit this is a weakness for me), write down answered prayers, blessings, and other things God has done for you. My son has been writing down one blessing every day for over a year. What an example he is!
After we have thought about what God has done for us and those we care about, we should praise Him for His great works.
Shout joyfully to God, all the earth;\ Sing the glory of His name;\ Make His praise glorious.\ Say to God, “How awesome are Your works!\ Because of the greatness of Your power \ Your enemies will give feigned obedience to You.\ All the earth will worship You,\ And will sing praises to You;\ They will sing praises to Your name.” Selah.\ **Come and see the works of God,\ Who is awesome in His deeds toward the sons of men. \ (Psalm 66:1-5) {emphasis mine}
There is nothing we can do to earn salvation from God, but we should be in awe of what He has done for us leading to submission and obedience in gratitude.
Therefore, since we receive a kingdom which cannot be shaken, let us show gratitude, by which we may offer to God an acceptable service with reverence and awe; for our God is a consuming fire. (Hebrews 12:28-29) {emphasis mine}
Are you thankful for your blessings or resentful for what you don’t have? Do you worship God or take things He has provided for granted? Do you tell the world the awesome things God has done for you or do you stay silent? Do you claim to be a Christian, but live a life no different than those around you?
Then the Lord said,
“Because this people draw near with their words\ And honor Me with their lip service,\ But they remove their hearts far from Me,\ And their reverence for Me consists of tradition learned by rote, (Isaiah 29:13)
I hope this passage does not describe your relation ship with our awesome God. He deserves so much more. Instead we should be zealous to praise God and share His goodness with those around us.
Who is there to harm you if you prove zealous for what is good? But even if you should suffer for the sake of righteousness, you are blessed. And do not fear their intimidation, and do not be troubled, but sanctify Christ as Lord in your hearts, always being ready to make a defense to everyone who asks you to give an account for the hope that is in you, yet with gentleness and reverence; (1 Peter 3:13-15) {emphasis mine}
Did you know that you can even show reverence by your every day work?
By faith Noah, being warned by God about things not yet seen, in reverence prepared an ark for the salvation of his household, by which he condemned the world, and became an heir of the righteousness which is according to faith. (Hebrews 11:7) {emphasis mine}
When Noah stepped out in faith and obedience to God and built the ark as God commanded, despite the fact that the people around him probably thought he was crazy building a boat on dry ground that had never flooded, his work was a kind of reverence to God. Are there areas in your life where you can obey God in reverence to His awesomeness? Do you realize that quality work in obedience to God can be a form of worship?
Just going above and beyond in your job can be a form of worship of God if you are working extra hard to honor Him. Obedience is another form of worship and reverence.
Then Zerubbabel the son of Shealtiel, and Joshua the son of Jehozadak, the high priest, with all the remnant of the people, obeyed the voice of the Lord their God and the words of Haggai the prophet, as the Lord their God had sent him. And the people showed reverence for the Lord. (Haggai 1:12) {emphasis mine}
Too many people have put the word of men (especially scientists) above the word of God and have tried to change the clear meaning of the Bible. I used to think it strange how the Bible goes through the days of creation and ends each day with “and there was evening and there was morning, the xth day.” Since a day has an evening and a morning, that seemed redundant. Why did God speak in this manner? God knew that a day would come when many scientist would try to disprove God and would claim that these days were not 24 hour days, but long ages. When a writer is trying to convey long ages, the writer does not mention evening/morning and doesn’t count the days.1
When we no longer see God as speaking the universe and everything in it into existence, we tend to not see God as an awesome God. We don’t see His power. We don’t see His knowledge. We don’t see His goodness. We also don’t see His authority. Why do we have to obey God? Because He created us and because He upholds us. Without Him we would not exist. Our creator has the authority to command His creation. When we compromise in this area, we lose our submission, our awe, and our reverence. (For more on the subject see my series.) When we believe His great works, especially those spoken of in Genesis 1-11 and in Exodus, we can’t help but be in awe of our God.
For the word of the Lord is upright,\ And all His work is done in faithfulness.\ He loves righteousness and justice;\ The earth is full of the lovingkindness of the Lord.\ By the word of the Lord the heavens were made,\ And by the breath of His mouth all their host.\ He gathers the waters of the sea together as a heap;\ He lays up the deeps in storehouses.\ **Let all the earth fear the Lord;\ Let all the inhabitants of the world stand in awe of Him. \ (Psalm 33:4-8) {emphasis mine}
Remembering God’s great works, we can’t help but worship in awe and reverence.
By awesome deeds You answer us in righteousness, O God of our salvation,\ *You who are the trust of all the ends of the earth* and of the farthest sea;\ Who establishes the mountains by His strength,\ Being girded with might;\ Who stills the roaring of the seas,\ The roaring of their waves,\ And the tumult of the peoples.\ They who dwell in the ends of the earth stand in awe of Your signs;\ You make the dawn and the sunset shout for joy. \ (Psalm 65:5-8) {emphasis mine}
If we truly do have awe and reverence for our God, we should be emboldened to tell those around us of His great works.
I will tell of Your name to my brethren;\ In the midst of the assembly I will praise You.\ You who fear the Lord, praise Him;\ All you descendants of Jacob, glorify Him,\ And stand in awe of Him, all you descendants of Israel. \ (Psalm 22:22-23) {emphasis mine}
May God grant you the wisdom to see His awesomeness and to trust Him, serve Him, obey Him, and worship Him as He so rightly deserves. May you always have a right view of God and a hunger for His word and a personal relationship with Him. To God be the Glory!
Trust Jesus
FYI, these are a few more passages on the subject that are helpful, but didn’t fit in the flow of my post.
Great is the Lord, and highly to be praised,\ And His greatness is unsearchable.\ One generation shall praise Your works to another,\ And shall declare Your mighty acts.\ On the glorious splendor of Your majesty\ And on Your wonderful works, I will meditate.\ Men shall speak of the power of Your awesome acts,\ And I will tell of Your greatness. (Psalm 145:3-6)
The boastful shall not stand before Your eyes;\ You hate all who do iniquity.\ You destroy those who speak falsehood;\ The Lord abhors the man of bloodshed and deceit.\ But as for me, by Your abundant lovingkindness I will enter Your house,\ At Your holy temple I will bow in reverence for You. (Psalm 5:5-7) {emphasis mine}
If you do not listen, and if you do not take it to heart to give honor to My name,” says the Lord of hosts, “then I will send the curse upon you and I will curse your blessings; and indeed, I have cursed them already, because you are not taking it to heart. Behold, I am going to rebuke your offspring, and I will spread refuse on your faces, the refuse of your feasts; and you will be taken away with it. Then you will know that I have sent this commandment to you, that My covenant may continue with Levi,” says the Lord of hosts. “My covenant with him was one of life and peace, and I gave them to him as an object of reverence; so he revered Me and stood in awe of My name. (Malachi 2:2-5) {emphasis mine}
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:50
"Privacy is necessary for an open society in the electronic age. Privacy is not secrecy. A private matter is something one doesn't want the whole world to know, but a secret matter is something one doesn't want anybody to know. Privacy is the power to selectively reveal oneself to the world." - Eric Hughes, A Cypherpunk's Manifesto, 1993
Privacy is essential to freedom. Without privacy, individuals are unable to make choices free from surveillance and control. Lack of privacy leads to loss of autonomy. When individuals are constantly monitored it limits our ability to express ourselves and take risks. Any decisions we make can result in negative repercussions from those who surveil us. Without the freedom to make choices, individuals cannot truly be free.
Freedom is essential to acquiring and preserving wealth. When individuals are not free to make choices, restrictions and limitations prevent us from economic opportunities. If we are somehow able to acquire wealth in such an environment, lack of freedom can result in direct asset seizure by governments or other malicious entities. At scale, when freedom is compromised, it leads to widespread economic stagnation and poverty. Protecting freedom is essential to economic prosperity.
The connection between privacy, freedom, and wealth is critical. Without privacy, individuals lose the freedom to make choices free from surveillance and control. While lack of freedom prevents individuals from pursuing economic opportunities and makes wealth preservation nearly impossible. No Privacy? No Freedom. No Freedom? No Wealth.
Rights are not granted. They are taken and defended. Rights are often misunderstood as permission to do something by those holding power. However, if someone can give you something, they can inherently take it from you at will. People throughout history have necessarily fought for basic rights, including privacy and freedom. These rights were not given by those in power, but rather demanded and won through struggle. Even after these rights are won, they must be continually defended to ensure that they are not taken away. Rights are not granted - they are earned through struggle and defended through sacrifice.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:50People forget Bear Stearns failed March 2008 - months of denial followed before the public realized how bad the situation was under the surface.
Similar happening now but much larger scale. They did not fix fundamental issues after 2008 - everything is more fragile.
The Fed preemptively bailed out every bank with their BTFP program and First Republic Bank still failed. The second largest bank failure in history.
There will be more failures. There will be more bailouts. Depositors will be "protected" by socializing losses across everyone.
Our President and mainstream financial pundits are currently pretending the banking crisis is over while most banks remain insolvent. There are going to be many more bank failures as this ponzi system unravels.
Unlike 2008, we have the ability to opt out of these broken and corrupt institutions by using bitcoin. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk - you do not have to trust a bank or other centralized entity to hold it for you. Bitcoin is also incredibly difficult to change by design since it is not controlled by an individual, company, or government - the supply of dollars will inevitably be inflated to bailout these failing banks but bitcoin supply will remain unchanged. I do not need to convince you that bitcoin provides value - these next few years will convince millions.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:47News
- Bitcoin mining centralization in 2025. According to a blog post by b10c, Bitcoin mining was at its most decentralized in May 2017, with another favorable period from 2019 to 2022. However, starting in 2023, mining has become increasingly centralized, particularly due to the influence of large pools like Foundry and the use of proxy pooling by entities such as AntPool.
Source: b10c's blog.
- OpenSats announces the eleventh wave of Nostr grants. The five projects in this wave are the mobile live-streaming app Swae, the Nostr-over-ham-radio project HAMSTR, Vertex—a Web-of-Trust (WOT) service for Nostr developers, Nostr Double Ratchet for end-to-end encrypted messaging, and the Nostr Game Engine for building games and applications integrated with the Nostr ecosystem.
- New Spiral grantee: l0rinc. In February 2024, l0rinc transitioned to full-time work on Bitcoin Core. His efforts focus on performance benchmarking and optimizations, enhancing code quality, conducting code reviews, reducing block download times, optimizing memory usage, and refactoring code.
- Project Eleven offers 1 BTC to break Bitcoin's cryptography with a quantum computer. The quantum computing research organization has introduced the Q-Day Prize, a global challenge that offers 1 BTC to the first team capable of breaking an elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) key using Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer. The prize will be awarded to the first team to successfully accomplish this breakthrough by April 5, 2026.
- Unchained has launched the Bitcoin Legacy Project. The initiative seeks to advance the Bitcoin ecosystem through a bitcoin-native donor-advised fund platform (DAF), investments in community hubs, support for education and open-source development, and a commitment to long-term sustainability with transparent annual reporting.
- In its first year, the program will provide support to Bitcoin hubs in Nashville, Austin, and Denver.
- Support also includes $50,000 to the Bitcoin Policy Institute, a $150,000 commitment at the University of Austin, and up to $250,000 in research grants through the Bitcoin Scholars program.
"Unchained will match grants 1:1 made to partner organizations who support Bitcoin Core development when made through the Unchained-powered bitcoin DAF, up to 1 BTC," was stated in a blog post.
- Block launched open-source tools for Bitcoin treasury management. These include a dashboard for managing corporate bitcoin holdings and provides a real-time BTC-to-USD price quote API, released as part of the Block Open Source initiative. The company’s own instance of the bitcoin holdings dashboard is available here.
Source: block.xyz
- Bull Bitcoin expands to Mexico, enabling anyone in the country to receive pesos from anywhere in the world straight from a Bitcoin wallet. Additionally, users can now buy Bitcoin with a Mexican bank account.
"Bull Bitcoin strongly believes in Bitcoin’s economic potential in Mexico, not only for international remittances and tourism, but also for Mexican individuals and companies to reclaim their financial sovereignty and protect their wealth from inflation and the fragility of traditional financial markets," said Francis Pouliot, Founder and CEO of Bull Bitcoin.
- Corporate bitcoin holdings hit a record high in Q1 2025. According to Bitwise, public companies' adoption of Bitcoin has hit an all-time high. In Q1 2025, these firms collectively hold over 688,000 BTC, marking a 16.11% increase from the previous quarter. This amount represents 3.28% of Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply.
Source: Bitwise.
- The Bitcoin Bond Company for institutions has launched with the aim of acquiring $1 trillion in Bitcoin over 21 years. It utilizes secure, transparent, and compliant bond-like products backed by Bitcoin.
- The U.S. Senate confirmed Paul Atkins as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). At his confirmation hearing, Atkins emphasized the need for a clear framework for digital assets. He aims to collaborate with the CFTC and Congress to address jurisdiction and rulemaking gaps, aligning with the Trump administration's goal to position the U.S. as a leader in Bitcoin and blockchain finance.
- Ethereum developer Virgil Griffith has been released from custody. Griffith, whose sentence was reduced to 56 months, is now seeking a pardon. He was initially sentenced to 63 months for allegedly violating international sanctions laws by providing technical advice on using cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology to evade sanctions during a presentation titled 'Blockchains for Peace' in North Korea.
- No-KYC exchange eXch to close down under money laundering scrutiny. The privacy-focused cryptocurrency trading platform said it will cease operations on May 1. This decision follows allegations that the platform was used by North Korea's Lazarus Group for money laundering. eXch revealed it is the subject of an active "transatlantic operation" aimed at shutting down the platform and prosecuting its team for "money laundering and terrorism."
- Blockstream combats ESP32 FUD concerning Jade signers. The company stated that after reviewing the vulnerability disclosed in early March, Jade was found to be secure. Espressif Systems, the designer of the ESP32, has since clarified that the "undocumented commands" do not constitute a "backdoor."
- Bank of America is lobbying for regulations that favor banks over tech firms in stablecoin issuance. The bank's CEO Brian Moynihan is working with groups such as the American Bankers Association to advance the issuance of a fully reserved, 1:1 backed "Bank of America coin." If successful, this could limit stablecoin efforts by non-banks like Tether, Circle, and others, reports The Block.
- Tether to back OCEAN Pool with its hashrate. "As a company committed to financial freedom and open access, we see supporting decentralization in Bitcoin mining as essential to the network’s long-term integrity," said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino.
- Bitdeer to expand its self-mining operations to navigate tariffs. The Singapore-based mining company is advancing plans to produce machines in the U.S. while reducing its mining hardware sales. This response is in light of increasing uncertainties related to U.S. trade policy, as reported by Bloomberg.
- Tether acquires $32M in Bitdeer shares. The firm has boosted its investment in Bitdeer during a wider market sell-off, with purchases in early to mid-April amounting to about $32 million, regulatory filings reveal.
- US Bitcoin miner manufacturer Auradine has raised $153 million in a Series C funding round as it expands into AI infrastructure. The round was led by StepStone Group and included participation from Maverick Silicon, Premji Invest, Samsung Catalyst Fund, Qualcomm Ventures, Mayfield, MARA Holdings, GSBackers, and other existing investors. The firm raised to over $300 million since its inception in 2022.
- Voltage has partnered with BitGo to [enable](https://www.voltage.cloud/blog/bitgo-and-voltage-team-up-to-deliver-instant-bitcoin-and-stabl
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:50Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.
— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022
Good morning.
It looks like PacWest will fail today. It will be both the fifth largest bank failure in US history and the sixth major bank to fail this year. It will likely get purchased by one of the big four banks in a government orchestrated sale.
March 8th - Silvergate Bank
March 10th - Silicon Valley Bank
March 12th - Signature Bank
March 19th - Credit Suisse
May 1st - First Republic Bank
May 4th - PacWest Bank?PacWest is the first of many small regional banks that will go under this year. Most will get bought by the big four in gov orchestrated sales. This has been the playbook since 2008. Follow the incentives. Massive consolidation across the banking industry. PacWest gonna be a drop in the bucket compared to what comes next.
First, a hastened government led bank consolidation, then a public/private partnership with the remaining large banks to launch a surveilled and controlled digital currency network. We will be told it is more convenient. We will be told it is safer. We will be told it will prevent future bank runs. All of that is marketing bullshit. The goal is greater control of money. The ability to choose how we spend it and how we save it. If you control the money - you control the people that use it.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:49There must be a limit to how much data is transferred across the bitcoin network in order to keep the ability to run and use your own node accessible. A node is required to interact with the global bitcoin network - if you do not use your own node then you must trust someone else's node. If nodes become inaccessible to run then the network will centralize around the remaining entities that operate them - threatening the censorship resistance at the core of bitcoin's value prop. The bitcoin protocol uses three main mechanisms to keep node operation costs low - a fixed limit on the amount of data in each block, an automatic difficulty adjustment that regulates how many blocks are produced based on current mining hash rate, and a robust dynamic transaction fee market.
Bitcoin transaction fees limit network abuse by making usage expensive. There is a cost to every transaction, set by a dynamic free market based on demand for scarce block space. It is an incredibly robust way to prevent spam without relying on centralized entities that can be corrupted or pressured.
After the 2017 bitcoin fee spike we had six years of relative quiet to build tools that would be robust in a sustained high fee market. Fortunately our tools are significantly better now but many still need improvement. Most of the pain points we see today will be mitigated.
The reality is we were never going to be fully prepared - pressure is needed to show the pain points and provide strong incentives to mitigate them.
It will be incredibly interesting to watch how projects adapt under pressure. Optimistic we see great innovation here.
_If you are willing to wait for your transaction to confirm you can pay significantly lower fees. Learn best practices for reducing your fee burden here.
My guide for running and using your own bitcoin node can be found here._
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 06830f6c:34da40c5
2025-05-24 04:21:03The evolution of development environments is incredibly rich and complex and reflects a continuous drive towards greater efficiency, consistency, isolation, and collaboration. It's a story of abstracting away complexity and standardizing workflows.
Phase 1: The Bare Metal & Manual Era (Early 1970s - Late 1990s)
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Direct OS Interaction / Bare Metal Development:
- Description: Developers worked directly on the operating system's command line or a basic text editor. Installation of compilers, interpreters, and libraries was a manual, often arcane process involving downloading archives, compiling from source, and setting environment variables. "Configuration drift" (differences between developer machines) was the norm.
- Tools: Text editors (Vi, Emacs), command-line compilers (GCC), Makefiles.
- Challenges: Extremely high setup time, dependency hell, "works on my machine" syndrome, difficult onboarding for new developers, lack of reproducibility. Version control was primitive (e.g., RCS, SCCS).
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Integrated Development Environments (IDEs) - Initial Emergence:
- Description: Early IDEs (like Turbo Pascal, Microsoft Visual Basic) began to integrate editors, compilers, debuggers, and sometimes GUI builders into a single application. This was a massive leap in developer convenience.
- Tools: Turbo Pascal, Visual Basic, early Visual Studio versions.
- Advancement: Improved developer productivity, streamlined common tasks. Still relied on local system dependencies.
Phase 2: Towards Dependency Management & Local Reproducibility (Late 1990s - Mid-2000s)
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Basic Build Tools & Dependency Resolvers (Pre-Package Managers):
- Description: As projects grew, manual dependency tracking became impossible. Tools like Ant (Java) and early versions of
autoconf
/make
for C/C++ helped automate the compilation and linking process, managing some dependencies. - Tools: Apache Ant, GNU Autotools.
- Advancement: Automated build processes, rudimentary dependency linking. Still not comprehensive environment management.
- Description: As projects grew, manual dependency tracking became impossible. Tools like Ant (Java) and early versions of
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Language-Specific Package Managers:
- Description: A significant leap was the emergence of language-specific package managers that could fetch, install, and manage libraries and frameworks declared in a project's manifest file. Examples include Maven (Java), npm (Node.js), pip (Python), RubyGems (Ruby), Composer (PHP).
- Tools: Maven, npm, pip, RubyGems, Composer.
- Advancement: Dramatically simplified dependency resolution, improved intra-project reproducibility.
- Limitation: Managed language-level dependencies, but not system-level dependencies or the underlying OS environment. Conflicts between projects on the same machine (e.g., Project A needs Python 2.7, Project B needs Python 3.9) were common.
Phase 3: Environment Isolation & Portability (Mid-2000s - Early 2010s)
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Virtual Machines (VMs) for Development:
- Description: To address the "it works on my machine" problem stemming from OS-level and system-level differences, developers started using VMs. Tools like VMware Workstation, VirtualBox, and later Vagrant (which automated VM provisioning) allowed developers to encapsulate an entire OS and its dependencies for a project.
- Tools: VMware, VirtualBox, Vagrant.
- Advancement: Achieved strong isolation and environment reproducibility (a true "single environment" for a project).
- Limitations: Resource-heavy (each VM consumed significant CPU, RAM, disk space), slow to provision and boot, difficult to share large VM images.
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Early Automation & Provisioning Tools:
- Description: Alongside VMs, configuration management tools started being used to automate environment setup within VMs or on servers. This helped define environments as code, making them more consistent.
- Tools: Chef, Puppet, Ansible.
- Advancement: Automated provisioning, leading to more consistent environments, often used in conjunction with VMs.
Phase 4: The Container Revolution & Orchestration (Early 2010s - Present)
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Containerization (Docker):
- Description: Docker popularized Linux Containers (LXC), offering a lightweight, portable, and efficient alternative to VMs. Containers package an application and all its dependencies into a self-contained unit that shares the host OS kernel. This drastically reduced resource overhead and startup times compared to VMs.
- Tools: Docker.
- Advancement: Unprecedented consistency from development to production (Dev/Prod Parity), rapid provisioning, highly efficient resource use. Became the de-facto standard for packaging applications.
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Container Orchestration:
- Description: As microservices and container adoption grew, managing hundreds or thousands of containers became a new challenge. Orchestration platforms automated the deployment, scaling, healing, and networking of containers across clusters of machines.
- Tools: Kubernetes, Docker Swarm, Apache Mesos.
- Advancement: Enabled scalable, resilient, and complex distributed systems development and deployment. The "environment" started encompassing the entire cluster.
Phase 5: Cloud-Native, Serverless & Intelligent Environments (Present - Future)
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Cloud-Native Development:
- Description: Leveraging cloud services (managed databases, message queues, serverless functions) directly within the development workflow. Developers focus on application logic, offloading infrastructure management to cloud providers. Containers become a key deployment unit in this paradigm.
- Tools: AWS Lambda, Azure Functions, Google Cloud Run, cloud-managed databases.
- Advancement: Reduced operational overhead, increased focus on business logic, highly scalable deployments.
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Remote Development & Cloud-Based IDEs:
- Description: The full development environment (editor, terminal, debugger, code) can now reside in the cloud, accessed via a thin client or web browser. This means developers can work from any device, anywhere, with powerful cloud resources backing their environment.
- Tools: GitHub Codespaces, Gitpod, AWS Cloud9, VS Code Remote Development.
- Advancement: Instant onboarding, consistent remote environments, access to high-spec machines regardless of local hardware, enhanced security.
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Declarative & AI-Assisted Environments (The Near Future):
- Description: Development environments will become even more declarative, where developers specify what they need, and AI/automation tools provision and maintain it. AI will proactively identify dependency issues, optimize resource usage, suggest code snippets, and perform automated testing within the environment.
- Tools: Next-gen dev container specifications, AI agents integrated into IDEs and CI/CD pipelines.
- Prediction: Near-zero environment setup time, self-healing environments, proactive problem identification, truly seamless collaboration.
web3 #computing #cloud #devstr
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:49I often hear "bitcoin doesn't interest me, I'm not a finance person."
Ironically, the beauty of sound money is you don't have to be. In the current system you're expected to manage a diversified investment portfolio or pay someone to do it. Bitcoin will make that optional.
— ODELL (@ODELL) September 16, 2018
At first glance bitcoin often appears overwhelming to newcomers. It is incredibly easy to get bogged down in the details of how it works or different ways to use it. Enthusiasts, such as myself, often enjoy going down the deep rabbit hole of the potential of bitcoin, possible pitfalls and theoretical scenarios, power user techniques, and the developer ecosystem. If your first touch point with bitcoin is that type of content then it is only natural to be overwhelmed. While it is important that we have a thriving community of bitcoiners dedicated to these complicated tasks - the true beauty of bitcoin lies in its simplicity. Bitcoin is simply better money. It is the best money we have ever had.
Life is complicated. Life is hard. Life is full of responsibility and surprises. Bitcoin allows us to focus on our lives while relying on a money that is simple. A money that is not controlled by any individual, company, or government. A money that cannot be easily seized or blocked. A money that cannot be devalued at will by a handful of corrupt bureaucrat who live hundreds of miles from us. A money that can be easily saved and should increase in purchasing power over time without having to learn how to "build a diversified stock portfolio" or hire someone to do it for us.
Bitcoin enables all of us to focus on our lives - our friends and family - doing what we love with the short time we have on this earth. Time is scarce. Life is complicated. Bitcoin is the most simple aspect of our complicated lives. If we spend our scarce time working then we should be able to easily save that accrued value for future generations without watching the news or understanding complicated financial markets. Bitcoin makes this possible for anyone.
Yesterday was Mother's Day. Raising a human is complicated. It is hard, it requires immense personal responsibility, it requires critical thinking, but mothers figure it out, because it is worth it. Using and saving bitcoin is simple - simply install an app on your phone. Every mother can do it. Every person can do it.
Life is complicated. Life is beautiful. Bitcoin is simple.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:47Good morning (good night?)! The No Bullshit Bitcoin news feed is now available on Moody's Dashboard! A huge shoutout to sir Clark Moody for integrating our feed.
Headlines
- Spiral welcomes Ben Carman. The developer will work on the LDK server and a new SDK designed to simplify the onboarding process for new self-custodial Bitcoin users.
- The Bitcoin Dev Kit Foundation announced new corporate members for 2025, including AnchorWatch, CleanSpark, and Proton Foundation. The annual dues from these corporate members fund the small team of open-source developers responsible for maintaining the core BDK libraries and related free and open-source software (FOSS) projects.
- Strategy increases Bitcoin holdings to 538,200 BTC. In the latest purchase, the company has spent more than $555M to buy 6,556 coins through proceeds of two at-the-market stock offering programs.
- Spar supermarket experiments with Bitcoin payments in Zug, Switzerland. The store has introduced a new payment method powered by the Lightning Network. The implementation was facilitated by DFX Swiss, a service that supports seamless conversions between bitcoin and legacy currencies.
- The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) wants to contain 'crypto' risks. A report titled "Cryptocurrencies and Decentralised Finance: Functions and Financial Stability Implications" calls for expanding research into "how new forms of central bank money, capital controls, and taxation policies can counter the risks of widespread crypto adoption while still fostering technological innovation."
- "Global Implications of Scam Centres, Underground Banking, and Illicit Online Marketplaces in Southeast Asia." According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) report, criminal organizations from East and Southeast Asia are swiftly extending their global reach. These groups are moving beyond traditional scams and trafficking, creating sophisticated online networks that include unlicensed cryptocurrency exchanges, encrypted communication platforms, and stablecoins, fueling a massive fraud economy on an industrial scale.
- Slovenia is considering a 25% capital gains tax on Bitcoin profits for individuals. The Ministry of Finance has proposed legislation to impose this tax on gains from cryptocurrency transactions, though exchanging one cryptocurrency for another would remain exempt. At present, individual 'crypto' traders in Slovenia are not taxed.
- Circle, BitGo, Coinbase, and Paxos plan to apply for U.S. bank charters or licenses. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, major crypto companies are planning to apply for U.S. bank charters or licenses. These firms are pursuing limited licenses that would permit them to issue stablecoins, as the U.S. Congress deliberates on legislation mandating licensing for stablecoin issuers.
"Established banks, like Bank of America, are hoping to amend the current drafts of [stablecoin] legislation in such a way that nonbanks are more heavily restricted from issuing stablecoins," people familiar with the matter told The Block.
- Charles Schwab to launch spot Bitcoin trading by 2026. The financial investment firm, managing over $10 trillion in assets, has revealed plans to introduce spot Bitcoin trading for its clients within the next year.
Use the tools
- Bitcoin Safe v1.2.3 expands QR SignMessage compatibility for all QR-UR-compatible hardware signers (SpecterDIY, KeyStone, Passport, Jade; already supported COLDCARD Q). It also adds the ability to import wallets via QR, ensuring compatibility with Keystone's latest firmware (2.0.6), alongside other improvements.
- Minibits v0.2.2-beta, an ecash wallet for Android devices, packages many changes to align the project with the planned iOS app release. New features and improvements include the ability to lock ecash to a receiver's pubkey, faster confirmations of ecash minting and payments thanks to WebSockets, UI-related fixes, and more.
- Zeus v0.11.0-alpha1 introduces Cashu wallets tied to embedded LND wallets. Navigate to Settings > Ecash to enable it. Other wallet types can still sweep funds from Cashu tokens. Zeus Pay now supports Cashu address types in Zaplocker, Cashu, and NWC modes.
- LNDg v1.10.0, an advanced web interface designed for analyzing Lightning Network Daemon (LND) data and automating node management tasks, introduces performance improvements, adds a new metrics page for unprofitable and stuck channels, and displays warnings for batch openings. The Profit and Loss Chart has been updated to include on-chain costs. Advanced settings have been added for users who would like their channel database size to be read remotely (the default remains local). Additionally, the AutoFees tool now uses aggregated pubkey metrics for multiple channels with the same peer.
- Nunchuk Desktop v1.9.45 release brings the latest bug fixes and improvements.
- Blockstream Green iOS v4.1.8 has renamed L-BTC to LBTC, and improves translations of notifications, login time, and background payments.
- Blockstream Green Android v4.1.8 has added language preference in App Settings and enables an Android data backup option for disaster recovery. Additionally, it fixes issues with Jade entry point PIN timeout and Trezor passphrase input.
- Torq v2.2.2, an advanced Lightning node management software designed to handle large nodes with over 1000 channels, fixes bugs that caused channel balance to not be updated in some cases and channel "peer total local balance" not getting updated.
- Stack Wallet v2.1.12, a multicoin wallet by Cypher Stack, fixes an issue with Xelis introduced in the latest release for Windows.
- ESP-Miner-NerdQAxePlus v1.0.29.1, a forked version from the NerdAxe miner that was modified for use on the NerdQAxe+, is now available.
- Zark enables sending sats to an npub using Bark.
- Erk is a novel variation of the Ark protocol that completely removes the need for user interactivity in rounds, addressing one of Ark's key limitations: the requirement for users to come online before their VTXOs expire.
- Aegis v0.1.1 is now available. It is a Nostr event signer app for iOS devices.
- Nostash is a NIP-07 Nostr signing extension for Safari. It is a fork of Nostore and is maintained by Terry Yiu. Available on iOS TestFlight.
- Amber v3.2.8, a Nostr event signer for Android, delivers the latest fixes and improvements.
- Nostur v1.20.0, a Nostr client for iOS, adds
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:49Will not live in a pod.
Will not eat the bugs.
Will not get the chip.
Will not get a blue check.
Will not use CBDCs.Live Free or Die.
Why did Elon buy twitter for $44 Billion? What value does he see in it besides the greater influence that undoubtedly comes with controlling one of the largest social platforms in the world? We do not need to speculate - he made his intentions incredibly clear in his first meeting with twitter employees after his takeover - WeChat of the West.
To those that do not appreciate freedom, the value prop is clear - WeChat is incredibly powerful and successful in China.
To those that do appreciate freedom, the concern is clear - WeChat has essentially become required to live in China, has surveillance and censorship integrated at its core, and if you are banned from the app your entire livelihood is at risk. Employment, housing, payments, travel, communication, and more become extremely difficult if WeChat censors determine you have acted out of line.
The blue check is the first step in Elon's plan to bring the chinese social credit score system to the west. Users who verify their identity are rewarded with more reach and better tools than those that do not. Verified users are the main product of Elon's twitter - an extensive database of individuals and complete control of the tools he will slowly get them to rely on - it is easier to monetize cattle than free men.
If you cannot resist the temptation of the blue check in its current form you have already lost - what comes next will be much darker. If you realize the need to resist - freedom tech provides us options.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:49Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.
If you missed my nostr introduction post you can find it here. My nostr account can be found here.
We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted on a centralized social platform it will usually be posted by someone to nostr.
We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted exclusively to nostr it is cross posted by someone to various centralized social platforms.
We are nearly at the point that you can recommend a cross platform app that users can install and easily onboard without additional guides or resources.
As companies continue to build walls around their centralized platforms nostr posts will be the easiest to cross reference and verify - as companies continue to censor their users nostr is the best censorship resistant alternative - gradually then suddenly nostr will become the standard. 🫡
Current Nostr Stats
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:48Influencers would have you believe there is an ongoing binance bank run but bitcoin wallet data says otherwise.
- binance wallets are near all time highs
- bitfinex wallets are also trending up
- gemini and coinbase are being hit with massive withdrawals thoughYou should not trust custodians, they can rug you without warning. It is incredibly important you learn how to hold bitcoin yourself, but also consider not blindly trusting influencers with a ref link to shill you.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:48For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.
The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.
Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.
Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.
Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.
Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.
Microsoft Cloud hiring to "implement global small modular reactor and microreactor" strategy to power data centers: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-cloud-hiring-to-implement-global-small-modular-reactor-and-microreactor-strategy-to-power-data-centers/
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 86611181:9fc27ad7
2025-05-23 20:31:44It's time to secure user data in your identity system This post was also published with the Industry Association of Privacy Professionals.
It seems like every day there is a new report of a major personal data breach. In just the past few months, Neiman Marcus, Ticketmaster, Evolve Bank, TeamViewer, Hubspot, and even the IRS have been affected.
The core issue is that user data is commonly spread across multiple systems that are increasingly difficult to fully secure, including database user tables, data warehouses and unstructured documents.
Most enterprises are already running an incredibly secure and hardened identity system to manage customer login and authorization, commonly referred to as a customer identity access management system. Since identity systems manage customer sign-up and sign-in, they typically contain customer names, email addresses, and phone numbers for multifactor authentication. Commercial CIAMs provide extensive logging, threat detection, availability and patch management.
Identity systems are highly secure and already store customers' personally identifiable information, so it stands to reason enterprises should consider identity systems to manage additional PII fields.
Identity systems are designed to store numerous PII fields and mask the fields for other systems. The Liberty Project developed the protocols that became Security Assertion Markup Language 2.0, the architecture at the core of CIAM systems, 20 years ago, when I was its chief technology officer. SAML 2.0 was built so identity data would be fully secure, and opaque tokens would be shared with other systems. Using tokens instead of actual user data is a core feature of identity software that can be used to fully secure user data across applications.
Most modern identity systems support adding additional customer fields, so it is easy to add new fields like Social Security numbers and physical addresses. Almost like a database, some identity systems even support additional tables and images.
A great feature of identity systems is that they often provide a full suite of user interface components for users to register, login and manage their profile fields. Moving fields like Social Security numbers from your database to your identity system means the identity system can fully manage the process of users entering, viewing and editing the field, and your existing application and database become descoped from managing sensitive data.
With sensitive fields fully isolated in an identity system and its user interface components, the identity system can provide for cumbersome and expensive compliance with standards such as the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act for medical data and the Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard for payment data, saving the time and effort to achieve similar compliance in your application.
There are, of course, applications that require sensitive data, such as customer service systems and data warehouses. Identity systems use a data distribution standard called System for Cross-domain Identity Management 2.0 to copy user data to other systems. The SCIM is a great standard to help manage compliance such as "right to be forgotten," because it can automatically delete customer data from other systems when a customer record is deleted from the identity system.
When copying customer data from an identity system to another application, consider anonymizing or masking fields. For example, anonymizing a birthdate into an age range when copying a customer record into a data warehouse can descope the data warehouse from containing personal information.
Most enterprises already run an Application Programming Interface Gateway to manage web services between systems. By combining an API Gateway with the identity system's APIs, it becomes very easy to automatically anonymize and mask customer data fields before they are copied into other systems.
A new set of companies including Baffle, Skyflow, and Piiano have introduced services that combine the governance and field management features of an identity system with extensive field masking. Since these systems do not offer the authentication and authorization features of an identity system, it's important to balance the additional features as they introduce an additional threat surface with PII storage and permissions.
PII sprawl is an increasing liability for companies. The most secure, compliant and flexible central data store to manage PII is the existing CIAM and API Gateway infrastructure that enterprises have already deployed.
Move that customer data into your identity system and lock it down. https://peter.layer3.press/articles/3c6912eb-404a-4630-9fe9-fd1bd23cfa64
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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda
2025-05-25 15:01:48Humanity's Natural State Is Chaos
Without order there is chaos. Humans competing with each other for scarce resources naturally leads to conflict until one group achieves significant power and instates a "monopoly on violence."Power Brings Stability
Power has always been the key means to achieve stability in societies. Centralized power can be incredibly effective in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, and social unrest efficiently. Unfortunately this power is often abused and corrupted.Centralized Power Breeds Tyranny
Centralized power often leads to tyrannical rule. When a select few individuals hold control over a society, they tend to become corrupted. Centralized power structures often lack accountability and transparency, and rely too heavily on trust.Distributed Power Cultivates Freedom
New technology that empowers individuals provide us the ability to rebuild societies from the bottom up. Strong individuals that can defend and provide for themselves will help build strong local communities on a similar foundation. The result is power being distributed throughout society rather than held by a select few.In the short term, relying on trust and centralized power is an easy answer to mitigating chaos, but freedom tech tools provide us the ability to build on top of much stronger distributed foundations that provide stability while also cultivating individual freedom.
The solution starts with us. Empower yourself. Empower others. A grassroots freedom tech movement scaling one person at a time.
If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.
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@ 5144fe88:9587d5af
2025-05-23 17:01:37The recent anomalies in the financial market and the frequent occurrence of world trade wars and hot wars have caused the world's political and economic landscape to fluctuate violently. It always feels like the financial crisis is getting closer and closer.
This is a systematic analysis of the possibility of the current global financial crisis by Manus based on Ray Dalio's latest views, US and Japanese economic and financial data, Buffett's investment behavior, and historical financial crises.
Research shows that the current financial system has many preconditions for a crisis, especially debt levels, market valuations, and investor behavior, which show obvious crisis signals. The probability of a financial crisis in the short term (within 6-12 months) is 30%-40%,
in the medium term (within 1-2 years) is 50%-60%,
in the long term (within 2-3 years) is 60%-70%.
Japan's role as the world's largest holder of overseas assets and the largest creditor of the United States is particularly critical. The sharp appreciation of the yen may be a signal of the return of global safe-haven funds, which will become an important precursor to the outbreak of a financial crisis.
Potential conditions for triggering a financial crisis Conditions that have been met 1. High debt levels: The debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States and Japan has reached a record high. 2. Market overvaluation: The ratio of stock market to GDP hits a record high 3. Abnormal investor behavior: Buffett's cash holdings hit a record high, with net selling for 10 consecutive quarters 4. Monetary policy shift: Japan ends negative interest rates, and the Fed ends the rate hike cycle 5. Market concentration is too high: a few technology stocks dominate market performance
Potential trigger points 1. The Bank of Japan further tightens monetary policy, leading to a sharp appreciation of the yen and the return of overseas funds 2. The US debt crisis worsens, and the proportion of interest expenses continues to rise to unsustainable levels 3. The bursting of the technology bubble leads to a collapse in market confidence 4. The trade war further escalates, disrupting global supply chains and economic growth 5. Japan, as the largest creditor of the United States, reduces its holdings of US debt, causing US debt yields to soar
Analysis of the similarities and differences between the current economic environment and the historical financial crisis Debt level comparison Current debt situation • US government debt to GDP ratio: 124.0% (December 2024) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: 216.2% (December 2024), historical high 225.8% (March 2021) • US total debt: 36.21 trillion US dollars (May 2025) • Japanese debt/GDP ratio: more than 250%-263% (Japanese Prime Minister’s statement)
Before the 2008 financial crisis • US government debt to GDP ratio: about 64% (2007) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: about 175% (2007)
Before the Internet bubble in 2000 • US government debt to GDP ratio: about 55% (1999) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: about 130% (1999)
Key differences • The current US debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly twice that before the 2008 crisis • The current Japanese debt-to-GDP ratio is more than 1.2 times that before the 2008 crisis • Global debt levels are generally higher than historical pre-crisis levels • US interest payments are expected to devour 30% of fiscal revenue (Moody's warning)
Monetary policy and interest rate environment
Current situation • US 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.6% (May 2025) • Bank of Japan policy: end negative interest rates and start a rate hike cycle • Bank of Japan's holdings of government bonds: 52%, plans to reduce purchases to 3 trillion yen per month by January-March 2026 • Fed policy: end the rate hike cycle and prepare to cut interest rates
Before the 2008 financial crisis • US 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.5%-5% (2007) • Fed policy: continuous rate hikes from 2004 to 2006, and rate cuts began in 2007 • Bank of Japan policy: maintain ultra-low interest rates
Key differences • Current US interest rates are similar to those before the 2008 crisis, but debt levels are much higher than then • Japan is in the early stages of ending its loose monetary policy, unlike before historical crises • The size of global central bank balance sheets is far greater than at any time in history
Market valuations and investor behavior Current situation • The ratio of stock market value to the size of the US economy: a record high • Buffett's cash holdings: $347 billion (28% of assets), a record high • Market concentration: US stock growth mainly relies on a few technology giants • Investor sentiment: Technology stocks are enthusiastic, but institutional investors are beginning to be cautious
Before the 2008 financial crisis • Buffett's cash holdings: 25% of assets (2005) • Market concentration: Financial and real estate-related stocks performed strongly • Investor sentiment: The real estate market was overheated and subprime products were widely popular
Before the 2000 Internet bubble • Buffett's cash holdings: increased from 1% to 13% (1998) • Market concentration: Internet stocks were extremely highly valued • Investor sentiment: Tech stocks are in a frenzy
Key differences • Buffett's current cash holdings exceed any pre-crisis level in history • Market valuation indicators have reached a record high, exceeding the levels before the 2000 bubble and the 2008 crisis • The current market concentration is higher than any period in history, and a few technology stocks dominate market performance
Safe-haven fund flows and international relations Current situation • The status of the yen: As a safe-haven currency, the appreciation of the yen may indicate a rise in global risk aversion • Trade relations: The United States has imposed tariffs on Japan, which is expected to reduce Japan's GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points in fiscal 2025 • International debt: Japan is one of the largest creditors of the United States
Before historical crises • Before the 2008 crisis: International capital flows to US real estate and financial products • Before the 2000 bubble: International capital flows to US technology stocks
Key differences • Current trade frictions have intensified and the trend of globalization has weakened • Japan's role as the world's largest holder of overseas assets has become more prominent • International debt dependence is higher than any period in history
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@ 26769dac:498e333b
2025-05-25 12:51:09Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up
We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:46Headlines
- Twenty One Capital is set to launch with over 42,000 BTC in its treasury. This new Bitcoin-native firm, backed by Tether and SoftBank, is planned to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners and will be led by Jack Mallers, co-founder and CEO of Strike. According to a report by the Financial Times, the company aims to replicate the model of Michael Saylor with his company, MicroStrategy.
- Florida's SB 868 proposes a backdoor into encrypted platforms. The bill and its House companion have both passed through their respective committees and are headed to a full vote. If enacted, SB 868 would require social media companies to decrypt teens' private messages, ban disappearing messages, allow unrestricted parental access to private messages, and likely eliminate encryption for all minors altogether.
- Paul Atkins has officially assumed the role of the 34th Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is a return to the agency for Atkins, who previously served as an SEC Commissioner from 2002 to 2008 under the George W. Bush administration. He has committed to advancing the SEC’s mission of fostering capital formation, safeguarding investors, and ensuring fair and efficient markets.
- Solosatoshi.com has sold over 10,000 open-source miners, adding more than 10 PH of hashpower to the Bitcoin network.
"Thank you, Bitaxe community. OSMU developers, your brilliance built this. Supporters, your belief drives us. Customers, your trust powers 10,000+ miners and 10PH globally. Together, we’re decentralizing Bitcoin’s future. Last but certainly not least, thank you@skot9000 for not only creating a freedom tool, but instilling the idea into thousands of people, that Bitcoin mining can be for everyone again," said the firm on X.
- OCEAN's DATUM has found 100 blocks. "Over 65% of OCEAN’s miners are using DATUM, and that number is growing every day. This means block template construction is making its way back into the hands of the miners, which is not only the most profitable for miners on OCEAN but also one of the best things for Bitcoin," stated the mining pool.
Source: orangesurf
- Arch Labs has secured $13 million to develop "ArchVM" and integrate smart-contract functionality with Bitcoin. The funding round, valuing the company at $200 million, was led by Pantera Capital, as announced on Tuesday.
- Tesla still holds nearly $1 billion in bitcoin. According to the automaker's latest earnings report, the firm reported digital asset holdings worth $951 million as of March 31.
- The European Central Bank is pushing for amendments to the European Union's Markets in Crypto Assets legislation (MiCA), just months after its implementation. According to Politico's report on Tuesday, the ECB is concerned that U.S. support for cryptocurrency, particularly stablecoins, could cause economic harm to the 27-nation bloc.
- TABConf 2025 is scheduled to take place from October 13-16, 2025. This prominent technical Bitcoin conference is dedicated to community building, education, and developer support, and it is set to return in October. Get your tickets here.
- Kaduna Lightning Development Bootcamp. From May 14th to 17th, the Bitcoin Lightning Developer Bootcamp will take place in Kaduna, Nigeria. Thisevent offers four dynamic days of coding, learning, and networking. Organized by Africa Free Routing and supported by Btrust, Tether, and African Bitcoiners, this bootcamp is designed as a gateway for African developers eager to advance their skills in Bitcoin and Lightning development. Apply here.
Source: African Bitcoiners.
Use the tools
- Core Lightning (CLN) v25.02.2 as been released to fix a broken Docker image. The issue was caused by an SQLite version that did not support an advanced query.
- Blitz wallet v0.4.4-beta introduces several updates and improvements, including the prevention of duplicate ecash payments, fixes for background ecash invoice handling, the ability for users to send payments to BOLT12 invoices from their Liquid balance, support for Blink QR codes, a lowered minimum amount for Lightning-to-Liquid payments to 100 sats, the option to initiate a node sync via a swipe gesture on the wallet's home screen, and the introduction of opt-in or opt-out functionality for newly implemented crash analytics via settings.
- Utreexo v0.5.0, a hash-based dynamic accumulator, is now available.
- Specter v2.1.1 is now available on StartOS. "This update brings compatibility with Bitcoin Core v28 and incorporates several upstream improvements," said developer Alex71btc.
- ESP-Miner (AxeOS) v2.7.0b1 is now available for testing.
- NodeGuard v0.16.1, a treasury management solution for Lightning nodes, has been released.
- The latest stacker.news updates include prompts to add a receiving wallet when posting or making comments (for new users), an option to randomize poll choices, improved URL search, and a few other enhancements. A bug fix for territories created after 9/19/24 has been implemented to reward 70% of their revenue to owners instead of 50%.
Other stuff
- The April edition of the 256 Foundation's newsletter is now available. It includes the latest mining news, Bitcoin network health updates, project developments, and a tutorial on how to update FutureBit's Apollo 1 to the Apollo 2 software.
- Siggy47 has posted a comprehensive RoboSats guide on stacker.news.
- Learn how to run your own Nostr relay using Citrine and Cloudflare Tunnels by following this step-by-step guide by Dhalism.
- Max Guise has written a Bitkey roadmap update for April 2025.
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PlebLab has uploaded a video on how to build a Rust wallet with LDK Node by Ben Carman.
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@ 26769dac:498e333b
2025-05-25 12:24:47Here's to the ones who can\ Feel there cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up
We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:46Headlines
- Spiral renews support for Dan Gould and Joschisan. The organization has renewed support for Dan Gould, who is developing the Payjoin Dev Kit (PDK), and Joschisan, a Fedimint developer focused on simplifying federations.
- Metaplanet buys another 145 BTC. The Tokyo-listed company has purchased an additional 145 BTC for $13.6 million. Their total bitcoin holdings now stand at 5,000 coins, worth around $428.1 million.
- Semler Scientific has increased its bitcoin holdings to 3,303 BTC. The company acquired an additional 111 BTC at an average price of $90,124. The purchase was funded through proceeds from an at-the-market offering and cash reserves, as stated in a press release.
- The Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP) Bill 2025 introduced in Kenya. The new legislation aims to establish a comprehensive legal framework for licensing, regulating, and supervising virtual asset service providers (VASPs), with strict penalties for non-compliant entities.
- Russian government to launch a cryptocurrency exchange. The country's Ministry of Finance and Central Bank announced plans to establish a trading platform for "highly qualified investors" that "will legalize crypto assets and bring crypto operations out of the shadows."
- All virtual asset service providers expect to be fully compliant with the Travel Rule by the end of 2025. A survey by financial surveillance specialist Notabene reveals that 90% of virtual asset service providers (VASPs) expect full Travel Rule compliance by mid-2025, with all aiming for compliance by year-end. The survey also shows a significant rise in VASPs blocking withdrawals until beneficiary information is confirmed, increasing from 2.9% in 2024 to 15.4% now. Additionally, about 20% of VASPs return deposits if originator data is missing.
- UN claims Bitcoin mining is a "powerful tool" for money laundering. The Rage's analysis suggests that the recent United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime report on crime in South-East Asia makes little sense and hints at the potential introduction of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) measures at the mining level.
- Riot Platforms has obtained a $100 million credit facility from Coinbase Credit, using bitcoin as collateral for short-term funding to support its expansion. The firm's CEO, Jason Les, stated that this facility is crucial for diversifying financing sources and driving long-term stockholder value through strategic growth initiatives.
- Bitdeer raises $179M in loans and equity amid Bitcoin chip push. The Miner Mag reports that Bitdeer entered into a loan agreement with its affiliate Matrixport for up to $200 million in April, as disclosed in its annual report filed on Monday.
- Federal Reserve retracts guidance discouraging banks from engaging in 'crypto.' The U.S. Federal Reserve withdrew guidance that discouraged banks from crypto and stablecoin activities, as announced by its Board of Governors on Thursday. This includes rescinding a 2022 supervisory letter requiring prior notification of crypto activities and 2023 stablecoin requirements.
"As a result, the Board will no longer expect banks to provide notification and will instead monitor banks' crypto-asset activities through the normal supervisory process," reads the FED statement.
- UAE-based Islamic bank ruya launches Shari’ah-compliant bitcoin investing. The bank has become the world’s first Islamic bank to provide direct access to virtual asset investments, including Bitcoin, via its mobile app, per Bitcoin Magazine.
- U.S. 'crypto' scam losses amounted to $9.3B in 2024. The US The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has reported $9.3 billion losses in cryptocurrency-related scams in 2024, noting a troubling trend of scams targeting older Americans, which accounted for over $2.8 billion of those losses.
Source: FBI.
- North Korean hackers establish fake companies to target 'crypto' developers. Silent Push researchers reported that hackers linked to the Lazarus Group created three shell companies, two of which are based in the U.S., with the objective of spreading malware through deceptive job interview scams aimed at individuals seeking jobs in cryptocurrency companies.
- Citrea deployed its Clementine Bridge on the Bitcoin testnet. The bridge utilizes the BitVM2 programming language to inherit validity from Bitcoin, allegedly providing "the safest and most trust-minimized way to use BTC in decentralized finance."
- Hesperides University offers a Master’s degree in Bitcoin. Bitcoin Magazine reports the launch of the first-ever Spanish-language Master’s program dedicated exclusively to Bitcoin. Starting April 28, 2025, this fully online program will equip professionals with technical, economic, legal, and philosophical skills to excel in the Bitcoin era.
- BTC in D.C. event is set to take place on September 30 - October 1 in Washington, D.C. Learn more about this initiative here.
Use the tools
- Bitcoin Keeper just got a new look. Version 2.2.0 of the mobile multisig app brought a new branding design, along with a Keeper Private tier, testnet support, ability to import and export BIP-329 labels, and the option to use a Server Key with multiple users.
- Earlier this month the project also announced Keeper Learn service, offering clear and guided Bitcoin learning sessions for both groups and individuals.
- Keeper Desktop v0.2.2, a companion desktop app for Bitcoin Keeper mobile app, received a renewed branding update, too.
The evolution of Bitcoin Keeper logo. Source: BitHyve blog.
- Blockstream Green Desktop v2.0.25 updates GDK to v0.75.1 and fixes amount parsing issues when switching from fiat denomination to Liquid asset.
- Lightning Loop v0.31.0-beta enhances the
loop listswaps
command by improving the ability to filter the response. - Lightning-kmp v1.10.0, an implementation of the Lightning Network in Kotlin, is now available.
- LND v0.19.0-beta.rc3, the latest beta release candidate of LND is now ready for testing.
- ZEUS v0.11.0-alpha2 is now available for testing, too. It's nuts.
- JoinMarket Fidelity Bond Simulator helps potential JoinMarket makers evaluate their competitive position in the market based on fidelity bonds.
- UTXOscope is a text-only Bitcoin blockchain analysis tool that visualizes price dynamics using only on-chain data. The
-
@ 87e98bb6:8d6616f4
2025-05-23 15:36:32Use this guide if you want to keep your NixOS on the stable branch, but enable unstable application packages. It took me a while to figure out how to do this, so I wanted to share because it ended up being far easier than most of the vague explanations online made it seem.
I put a sample configuration.nix file at the very bottom to help it make more sense for new users. Remember to keep a backup of your config file, just in case!
If there are any errors please let me know. I am currently running NixOS 24.11.
Steps listed in this guide: 1. Add the unstable channel to NixOS as a secondary channel. 2. Edit the configuration.nix to enable unstable applications. 3. Add "unstable." in front of the application names in the config file (example: unstable.program). This enables the install of unstable versions during the build. 4. Rebuild.
Step 1:
- Open the console. (If you want to see which channels you currently have, type: sudo nix-channel --list)
- Add the unstable channel, type: sudo nix-channel --add https://channels.nixos.org/nixpkgs-unstable unstable
- To update the channels (bring in the possible apps), type: sudo nix-channel --update
More info here: https://nixos.wiki/wiki/Nix_channels
Step 2:
Edit your configuration.nix and add the following around your current config:
``` { config, pkgs, lib, ... }:
let unstable = import
{ config = { allowUnfree = true; }; }; in { #insert normal configuration text here } #remember to close the bracket!
```
At this point it would be good to save your config and try a rebuild to make sure there are no errors. If you have errors, make sure your brackets are in the right places and/or not missing. This step will make for less troubleshooting later on if something happens to be in the wrong spot!
Step 3:
Add "unstable." to the start of each application you want to use the unstable version. (Example: unstable.brave)
Step 4:
Rebuild your config, type: sudo nixos-rebuild switch
Example configuration.nix file:
```
Config file for NixOS
{ config, pkgs, lib, ... }:
Enable unstable apps from Nix repository.
let unstable = import
{ config = { allowUnfree = true; }; }; in { #Put your normal config entries here in between the tags. Below is what your applications list needs to look like.
environment.systemPackages = with pkgs; [ appimage-run blender unstable.brave #Just add unstable. before the application name to enable the unstable version. chirp discord ];
} # Don't forget to close bracket at the end of the config file!
``` That should be all. Hope it helps.
-
@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:45Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
- Wasabi Wallet v2.6.0 "Prometheus" is a major update for the project, focused on resilience and independence from centralized systems.
- Key features include support for BIP 158 block filters for direct node synchronization, a revamped full node integration for easier setup without third-party reliance, SLIP 39 share backups for flexible wallet recovery (sponsored by Trezor), and a Nostr-based update manager for censorship-resistant updates.
- Additional improvements include UI bug fixes, a new fallback for transaction broadcasting, updated code signing, stricter JSON serialization, and options to avoid third-party rate providers, alongside various under-the-hood enhancements.
This new version brings us closer to our ultimate goal: ensuring Wasabi is future-proof," said the developers, while also highlighting the following key areas of focus for the project:
- Ensuring users can always fully and securely use their client.
- Making contribution and forks easy through a codebase of the highest quality possible: understandable, maintainable, and improvable.
"As we achieve our survival goals, expect more cutting-edge improvements in Bitcoin privacy and self-custody. Thank you for the trust you place in us by using Wasabi," was stated in the release notes.
What's new
- Support for Standard BIP 158 Block Filters. Wasabi now syncs using BIP 158 filters without a backend/indexer, connecting directly to a user's node. This boosts sync speed, resilience, and allows full sovereignty without specific server dependency.
- Full Node Integration Rework. The old integration has been replaced with a simpler, more adaptable system. It’s not tied to a specific Bitcoin node fork, doesn’t need the node on the same machine as Wasabi, and requires no changes to the node’s setup.
- "Simply enable the RPC server on your node and point Wasabi to it," said the developers. This ensures all Bitcoin network activities—like retrieving blocks, fee estimations, block filters, and transaction broadcasting—go through your own node, avoiding reliance on third parties.
- Create & Recover SLIP 39 Shares. Users now create and recover wallets with multiple share backups using SLIP 39 standard.
"Special thanks to Trezor (SatoshiLabs) for sponsoring this amazing feature."
- Nostr Update Manager. This version implements a pioneering system with the Nostr protocol for update information and downloads, replacing reliance on GitHub. This enhances the project's resilience, ensuring updates even if GitHub is unavailable, while still verifying updates with the project's secure certificate.
- Updated Avalonia to v11.2.7, fixes for UI bugs (including restoring Minimize on macOS Sequoia).
- Added a configurable third-party fallback for broadcasting transactions if other methods fail.
- Replaced Windows Code Signing Certificate with Azure Trusted Signing.
- Many bug fixes, improved codebase, and enhanced CI pipeline.
- Added the option to avoid using any third-party Exchange Rate and Fee Rate providers (Wasabi can work without them).
- Rebuilt all JSON Serialization mechanisms avoiding default .NET converters. Serialization is now stricter.
Full Changelog: v2.5.1...v2.6.0
-
@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:45Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
News
- Spiral welcomes Ben Carman. The developer will work on the LDK server and a new SDK designed to simplify the onboarding process for new self-custodial Bitcoin users.
- Spiral renews support for Dan Gould and Joschisan. The organization has renewed support for Dan Gould, who is developing the Payjoin Dev Kit (PDK), and Joschisan, a Fedimint developer focused on simplifying federations.
- The Bitcoin Dev Kit Foundation announced new corporate members for 2025, including AnchorWatch, CleanSpark, and Proton Foundation. The annual dues from these corporate members fund the small team of open-source developers responsible for maintaining the core BDK libraries and related free and open-source software (FOSS) projects.
- The European Central Bank is pushing for amendments to the European Union's Markets in Crypto Assets legislation (MiCA), just months after its implementation. According to Politico's report on Tuesday, the ECB is concerned that U.S. support for cryptocurrency, particularly stablecoins, could cause economic harm to the 27-nation bloc.
- Slovenia is considering a 25% capital gains tax on Bitcoin profits for individuals. The Ministry of Finance has proposed legislation to impose this tax on gains from cryptocurrency transactions, though exchanging one cryptocurrency for another would remain exempt. At present, individual 'crypto' traders in Slovenia are not taxed.
- The Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASP) Bill 2025 introduced in Kenya. The new legislation aims to establish a comprehensive legal framework for licensing, regulating, and supervising virtual asset service providers (VASPs), with strict penalties for non-compliant entities.
- Circle, BitGo, Coinbase, and Paxos plan to apply for U.S. bank charters or licenses. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, major crypto companies are planning to apply for U.S. bank charters or licenses. These firms are pursuing limited licenses that would permit them to issue stablecoins, as the U.S. Congress deliberates on legislation mandating licensing for stablecoin issuers.
"Established banks, like Bank of America, are hoping to amend the current drafts of [stablecoin] legislation in such a way that nonbanks are more heavily restricted from issuing stablecoins," people familiar with the matter told The Block.
- Paul Atkins has officially assumed the role of the 34th Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is a return to the agency for Atkins, who previously served as an SEC Commissioner from 2002 to 2008 under the George W. Bush administration. He has committed to advancing the SEC’s mission of fostering capital formation, safeguarding investors, and ensuring fair and efficient markets.
- Federal Reserve retracts guidance discouraging banks from engaging in 'crypto.' The U.S. Federal Reserve withdrew guidance that discouraged banks from crypto and stablecoin activities, as announced by its Board of Governors on Thursday. This includes rescinding a 2022 supervisory letter requiring prior notification of crypto activities and 2023 stablecoin requirements.
"As a result, the Board will no longer expect banks to provide notification and will instead monitor banks' crypto-asset activities through the normal supervisory process," reads the FED statement.
- Russian government to launch a cryptocurrency exchange. The country's Ministry of Finance and Central Bank announced plans to establish a trading platform for "highly qualified investors" that "will legalize crypto assets and bring crypto operations out of the shadows."
- Twenty One Capital is set to launch with over 42,000 BTC in its treasury. This new Bitcoin-native firm, backed by Tether and SoftBank, is planned to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners and will be led by Jack Mallers, co-founder and CEO of Strike. According to a report by the Financial Times, the company aims to replicate the model of Michael Saylor with his company, MicroStrategy.
- Strategy increases Bitcoin holdings to 538,200 BTC. In the latest purchase, the company has spent more than $555M to buy 6,556 coins through proceeds of two at-the-market stock offering programs.
- Metaplanet buys another 145 BTC. The Tokyo-listed company has purchased an additional 145 BTC for $13.6 million. Their total bitcoin holdings now stand at 5,000 coins, worth around $428.1 million.
- Semler Scientific has increased its bitcoin holdings to 3,303 BTC. The company acquired an additional 111 BTC at an average price of $90,124. The purchase was funded through proceeds from an at-the-market offering and cash reserves, as stated in a press release.
- Tesla still holds nearly $1 billion in bitcoin. According to the automaker's latest earnings report, the firm reported digital asset holdings worth $951 million as of March 31.
- Spar supermarket experiments with Bitcoin payments in Zug, Switzerland. The store has introduced a new payment method powered by the Lightning Network. The implementation was facilitated by DFX Swiss, a service that supports seamless conversions between bitcoin and legacy currencies.
- Charles Schwab to launch spot Bitcoin trading by 2026. The financial investment firm, managing over $10 trillion in assets, has revealed plans to introduce spot Bitcoin trading for its clients within the next year.
- Arch Labs has secured $13 million to develop "ArchVM" and integrate smart-contract functionality with Bitcoin. The funding round, valuing the company at $200 million, was led by Pantera Capital, as announced on Tuesday.
- Citrea deployed its Clementine Bridge on the Bitcoin testnet. The bridge utilizes the BitVM2 programming language to inherit validity from Bitcoin, allegedly providing "the safest and most trust-minimized way to use BTC in decentralized finance."
- UAE-based Islamic bank ruya launches Shari’ah-compliant bitcoin investing. The bank has become the world’s first Islamic bank to provide direct access to virtual asset investments, including Bitcoin, via its mobile app, per Bitcoin Magazine.
- Solosatoshi.com has sold over 10,000 open-source miners, adding more than 10 PH of hashpower to the Bitcoin network.
"Thank you, Bitaxe community. OSMU developers, your brilliance built this. Supporters, your belief drives us. Customers, your trust powers 10,000+ miners and 10PH globally. Together, we’re decentralizing Bitcoin’s future. Last but certainly not least, thank you@skot9000 for not only creating a freedom tool, but instilling the idea into thousands of people, that Bitcoin mining can be for everyone again," said the firm on X.
- OCEAN's DATUM has found 100 blocks. "Over 65% of OCEAN’s miners are using DATUM, and that number is growing every day. This means block template construction is making its way back into the hands of the miners, which is not only the most profitable
-
@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-25 12:14:51Aliquam eu turpis sed enim ultricies scelerisque\ Duis posuere congue faucibus
Praesent pretium orci ante, et faucibus lectus euismod a
-
@ 866e0139:6a9334e5
2025-05-25 11:03:13Autor: Alexa Rodrian. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.
Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.
„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt.
Die Sängerin Alexa Rodrian erlebte bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises einen solchen Moment der Desillusion. Es war der Auftritt des Liedermachers Wolf Biermann. Hören Sie hierzu Alexa Rodrians Text „Wolf Biermann und sein falscher Friede“.
https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/wolf-biermann-und-sein-falscher-friede-von-alexa-rodrian
Dieser Beitrag erschien zuerst auf Radio München.
LASSEN SIE DER FRIEDENSTAUBE FLÜGEL WACHSEN!
Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt.
Schon jetzt können Sie uns unterstützen:
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- Ab 1000 CHF werden Sie Genossenschafter der Friedenstaube mit Stimmrecht (und bekommen lebenslanges Abo, T-Shirt/Hoodie).
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Wenn Sie auf anderem Wege beitragen wollen, schreiben Sie die Friedenstaube an: friedenstaube@pareto.space
Sie sind noch nicht auf Nostr and wollen die volle Erfahrung machen (liken, kommentieren etc.)? Zappen können Sie den Autor auch ohne Nostr-Profil! Erstellen Sie sich einen Account auf Start. Weitere Onboarding-Leitfäden gibt es im Pareto-Wiki.
-
@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:45Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
- RoboSats v0.7.7-alpha is now available!
NOTE: "This version of clients is not compatible with older versions of coordinators. Coordinators must upgrade first, make sure you don't upgrade your client while this is marked as pre-release."
- This version brings a new and improved coordinators view with reviews signed both by the robot and the coordinator, adds market price sources in coordinator profiles, shows a correct warning for canceling non-taken orders after a payment attempt, adds Uzbek sum currency, and includes package library updates for coordinators.
Source: RoboSats.
- siggy47 is writing daily RoboSats activity reviews on stacker.news. Check them out here.
- Stay up-to-date with RoboSats on Nostr.
What's new
- New coordinators view (see the picture above).
- Available coordinator reviews signed by both the robot and the coordinator.
- Coordinators now display market price sources in their profiles.
Source: RoboSats.
- Fix for wrong message on cancel button when taking an order. Users are now warned if they try to cancel a non taken order after a payment attempt.
- Uzbek sum currency now available.
- For coordinators: library updates.
- Add docker frontend (#1861).
- Add order review token (#1869).
- Add UZS migration (#1875).
- Fixed tests review (#1878).
- Nostr pubkey for Robot (#1887).
New contributors
Full Changelog: v0.7.6-alpha...v0.7.7-alpha
-
@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:44Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
- This release introduces Payjoin v2 functionality to Bitcoin wallets on Cake, along with several UI/UX improvements and bug fixes.
- The Payjoin v2 protocol enables asynchronous, serverless coordination between sender and receiver, removing the need to be online simultaneously or maintain a server. This simplifies privacy-focused transactions for regular users.
"I cannot speak highly enough of how amazing it has been to work with @bitgould and Jaad from the@payjoindevkit team, they're doing incredible work. None of this would be possible without them and their tireless efforts. PDK made it so much easier to ship Payjoin v2 than it would have been otherwise, and I can't wait to see other wallets jump in and give back to PDK as they implement it like we did," said Seth For Privacy, VP at Cake Wallet.
How to started with Payjoin in Cake Wallet:
- Open the app menu sidebar and click
Privacy
. - Toggle the
Use Payjoin
option. - Now on your receive screen you'll see an option to copy a Payjoin URL
- Bull Bitcoin Wallet v0.4.0 introduced Payjoin v2 support in late December 2024. However, the current implementations are not interoperable at the moment, an issue that should be addressed in the next release of the Bull Bitcoin Wallet.
- Cake Wallet was one of the first wallets to introduce Silent Payments back in May 2024. However, users may encounter sync issues while using this feature at present, which will be resolved in the next release of Cake Wallet.
What's new
- Payjoin v2 implementation.
- Wallet group improvements: Enhanced management of multiple wallets.
- Various bug fixes: improving overall stability and user experience.
- Monero (XMR) enhancements.
Learn more about using, implementing, and understanding BIP 77: Payjoin Version 2 using the
payjoin
crate in Payjoin Dev Kit here. -
@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:44Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
- "Today we're launching the beta version of our multiplatform Nostr browser! Think Google Chrome but for Nostr apps. The beta is our big first step toward this vision," announced Damus.
- This version comes with the Dave Nostr AI assistant, support for zaps and the Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) wallet interface, full-text note search, GIFs and fullscreen images, multiple media uploads, user tagging, relay list and mute list support, along with a number of other improvements."
"Included in the beta is the Dave, the Nostr AI assistant (its Grok for Nostr). Dave is a new Notedeck browser app that can search and summarize notes from the network. For a full breakdown of everything new, check out our beta launch video."
What's new
- Dave Nostr AI assistant app.
- GIFs.
- Fulltext note search.
- Add full screen images, add zoom, and pan.
- Zaps! NWC/ Wallet UI.
- Introduce last note per pubkey feed (experimental).
- Allow multiple media uploads per selection.
- Major Android improvements (still WIP).
- Added notedeck app sidebar.
- User Tagging.
- Note truncation.
- Local network note broadcast, broadcast notes to other notedeck notes while you're offline.
- Mute list support (reading).
- Relay list support.
- Ctrl-enter to send notes.
- Added relay indexing (relay columns soon).
- Click hashtags to open hashtag timeline.
- Fixed timelines sometimes not updating (stale feeds).
- Fixed UI bounciness when loading profile pictures
- Fixed unselectable post replies.
-
@ 9223d2fa:b57e3de7
2025-05-25 10:59:25480 steps
-
@ 975e4ad5:8d4847ce
2025-05-25 10:43:35Selfishness as Bitcoin’s Engine
Bitcoin, created by Satoshi Nakamoto, operates on a clear mechanism: miners use computational power to solve complex mathematical puzzles, verifying transactions on the network. In return, they earn rewards in Bitcoin. This is pure self-interest—miners want to maximize their profits. But while pursuing personal gain, they inadvertently maintain the entire system. Each new block added to the blockchain makes the network more stable and resilient against attacks. The more miners join, the more decentralized the system becomes, rendering it nearly impossible to manipulate.
This mechanism is brilliant because it taps into human nature—the desire for personal gain—to create something greater. Bitcoin doesn’t rely on altruism or good intentions. It relies on rational self-interest, which drives individuals to act in their own favor, ultimately benefiting the entire community.
The World Works the Same Way
This concept isn’t unique to Bitcoin. The world is full of examples where personal interest leads to collective progress. When an entrepreneur creates a new product, they do so to make money, but in the process, they create jobs, advance technology, and improve people’s lives. When a scientist works on a breakthrough, they may be driven by fame or financial reward, but the result is often a discovery that changes the world. Even in everyday life, when we buy products or services for our own convenience, we support the economy and encourage innovation.
Of course, self-interest doesn’t always lead to positive outcomes. Technologies created with good intentions can be misused—for example, in wars or for fraud. But even these negative aspects don’t halt progress. Competition and the drive for survival push humanity to find solutions, learn from mistakes, and keep moving forward. This is the cycle of development: individual self-interest fuels innovations that make the world more technological and connected.
Nature and Bitcoin: The DNA Parallel
To understand this mechanism, let’s look to nature. Consider the cells in a living organism. Each cell operates independently, following the instructions encoded in its DNA—a code that dictates its actions. The cell doesn’t “know” about the entire body, nor does it care. It simply strives for its own survival, performing its functions. But when billions of cells work together, following this code, they create something greater—a living organism.
Bitcoin is like the DNA of a decentralized system. Each miner is like a cell, following the “instructions” of the protocol to survive (profit). They don’t think about the entire network, only their own reward. But when all miners act together, they create something bigger—a global, secure, and resilient financial system. This is the beauty of decentralization: everyone acts for themselves, but the result is collective.
Selfishness and Humanity
Humans are no different from cells. Each of us wants to thrive—to have security, comfort, and success. But in pursuing these goals, we contribute to society. A teacher educates because they want to earn a living, but they shape future generations. An engineer builds a bridge because it’s their job, but it facilitates transportation for millions. Even in our personal lives, when we care for our families, we strengthen the social bonds that make society stronger.
Of course, there are exceptions—people who act solely for personal gain without regard for consequences. But even these outliers don’t change the bigger picture. Selfishness, when channeled correctly, is a driver of progress. Bitcoin is proof of this—a technology that turns personal interest into global innovation.
Bitcoin is more than just a cryptocurrency; it’s a mirror of human nature and the way the world works. Its design harnesses selfishness to create something sustainable and valuable. Just like cells in a body or people in society, Bitcoin miners work for themselves but contribute to something greater. It’s a reminder that even in our pursuit of personal gain, we can make the world a better place—as long as we follow the right “code.”
-
@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:44Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
-
Version 1.3 of Bitcoin Safe introduces a redesigned interactive chart, quick receive feature, updated icons, a mempool preview window, support for Child Pays For Parent (CPFP) and testnet4, preconfigured testnet demo wallets, as well as various bug fixes and improvements.
-
Upcoming updates for Bitcoin Safe include Compact Block Filters.
"Compact Block Filters increase the network privacy dramatically, since you're not asking an electrum server to give you your transactions. They are a little slower than electrum servers. For a savings wallet like Bitcoin Safe this should be OK," writes the project's developer Andreas Griffin.
- Learn more about the current and upcoming features of Bitcoin Safe wallet here.
What's new in v1.3
- Redesign of Chart, Quick Receive, Icons, and Mempool Preview (by @design-rrr).
- Interactive chart. Clicking on it now jumps to transaction, and selected transactions are now highlighted.
- Speed up transactions with Child Pays For Parent (CPFP).
- BDK 1.2 (upgraded from 0.32).
- Testnet4 support.
- Preconfigured Testnet demo wallets.
- Cluster unconfirmed transactions so that parents/children are next to each other.
- Customizable columns for all tables (optional view: Txid, Address index, and more)
- Bug fixes and other improvements.
Announcement / Archive
Blog Post / Archive
GitHub Repo
Website -
-
@ f240be2b:00c761ba
2025-05-25 10:32:12Wirtschaftswunder werden oft als mysteriöse, unvorhersehbare Phänomene dargestellt – als wären sie glückliche Zufälle oder das Ergebnis genialer Planungen. Bei näherer Betrachtung offenbart sich jedoch ein grundlegendes Muster: Diese vermeintlichen "Wunder" sind keine übernatürlichen Ereignisse, sondern das natürliche Ergebnis wirtschaftlicher Freiheit. Die Erfolgsgeschichten verschiedener Länder bestätigen diese These und zeigen, dass Wohlstand entsteht, wenn Menschen die Freiheit haben, zu handeln, zu produzieren und zu innovieren.
Das deutsche Wirtschaftswunder
Nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg lag Deutschland in Trümmern. Die Industrieproduktion war auf ein Viertel des Vorkriegsniveaus gesunken, und Millionen Menschen lebten in Armut. Doch innerhalb weniger Jahre erlebte Westdeutschland einen beispiellosen wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung, der als "Wirtschaftswunder" in die Geschichte einging.
Der Wandel begann mit Ludwig Erhards mutiger Währungsreform und Preisfreigabe im Jahr 1948. Erhard, damals Direktor der Wirtschaftsverwaltung, schaffte Preiskontrollen ab und führte die Deutsche Mark ein. Diese Maßnahmen wurden von Besatzungsmächten und deutschen Sozialisten skeptisch betrachtet und waren zunächst unpopulär. Doch die Ergebnisse sprachen für sich: Über Nacht füllten sich die Ladenregale wieder, und die Schwarzmärkte verschwanden.
Das Kernprinzip war einfach: Erhard gab den Menschen ihre wirtschaftliche Freiheit zurück. Er schuf einen stabilen Rechtsrahmen, reduzierte staatliche Eingriffe und förderte den freien Wettbewerb. Die Sozialisten bekämpften diese Entwicklung von Anfang an, deuteten diese jedoch im Nachhinein als “soziale Marktwirtschaft” um, diese Lüge verbreiten sie noch heute sehr erfolgreich.
Die freie Marktwirtschaft erlaubte es den Deutschen, ihre unternehmerischen Fähigkeiten zu entfalten und ihre zerstörte Wirtschaft wieder aufzubauen.\ Das Ergebnis: Zwischen 1950 und 1960 wuchs das westdeutsche BIP um mehr als 8% jährlich. Die Arbeitslosigkeit sank von 11% auf unter 1%, und Deutschland wurde zu einer der führenden Exportnationen der Welt. Was als "Wunder" bezeichnet wurde, war tatsächlich die natürliche Konsequenz wiederhergestellter wirtschaftlicher Freiheit.
Chiles wirtschaftliche Transformation
Chile bietet ein weiteres eindrucksvolles Beispiel. In den frühen 1970er Jahren litt das Land unter einer Hyperinflation von 700%, einem schrumpfenden BIP und zunehmender Armut. Die Transformation begann in den späten 1970er Jahren mit tiefgreifenden Wirtschaftsreformen.
Die chilenische Regierung privatisierte Staatsunternehmen, öffnete Märkte für internationalen Handel, schuf ein stabiles Finanzsystem und führte ein innovatives Rentensystem ein. Während andere lateinamerikanische Länder mit protektionistischen Maßnahmen experimentierten, entschied sich Chile für wirtschaftliche Freiheit.
Die Ergebnisse waren beeindruckend: Zwischen 1975 und 2000 verdreifachte sich Chiles Pro-Kopf-Einkommen. Die Armutsquote sank von 45% auf unter 10%. Heute hat Chile das höchste Pro-Kopf-Einkommen in Südamerika und eine der stabilsten Wirtschaften der Region.
Mit einer gewissen Melancholie müssen wir beobachten, wie die hart erkämpften Errungenschaften Chiles allmählich in den Schatten der Vergänglichkeit gleiten. Was einst als Leuchtturm wirtschaftlicher Transformation strahlte, wird nun von den Nebeln der kollektiven Amnesie umhüllt. In dieser Dämmerung der Erinnerung finden interventionistische Strömungen erneut fruchtbaren Boden.
Dieses Phänomen ist nicht auf Chile beschränkt. Auch in Deutschland verblasst die Erinnerung an die transformative Kraft der freien Marktwirtschaft. Die Geschichte wird umgedichtet, in der wirtschaftliche Freiheit als unbarmherziger Kapitalismus karikiert wird, während staatliche Intervention als einziger Weg zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit glorifiziert wird.
Chinas große Öffnung
Im Reich der Mitte vollzog sich die vielleicht dramatischste wirtschaftliche Metamorphose unserer Zeit. Nach Jahrzehnten der Isolation und planwirtschaftlicher Starrheit öffnete China unter Deng Xiaoping vorsichtig die Tore zur wirtschaftlichen Freiheit.
Die Transformation begann in den Reisfeldern, wo Bauern erstmals seit Generationen über ihre eigene Ernte bestimmen durften. Sie setzte sich fort in den pulsierenden Sonderwirtschaftszonen, wo unternehmerische Energie auf globale Märkte traf.
Das Ergebnis war atemberaubend: Fast vier Jahrzehnte mit durchschnittlich 10 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum jährlich – eine beispiellose Leistung in der Wirtschaftsgeschichte. Mehr als 800 Millionen Menschen überwanden die Armut und fanden den Weg in die globale Mittelschicht. Selbst die partielle Einführung wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten entfesselte eine Produktivität, die die Welt veränderte.
Die zeitlose Lektion
Das Geheimnis wirtschaftlicher Erneuerung liegt nicht in komplexen Theorien oder staatlichen Eingriffen, sondern in der einfachen Weisheit, Menschen die Freiheit zu geben, ihre Träume zu verwirklichen. Wenn wir von "Wirtschaftswundern" sprechen, verkennen wir die wahre Natur dieser Transformationen.
Sie sind keine mysteriösen Anomalien, sondern vielmehr Bestätigungen eines zeitlosen Prinzips: In der fruchtbaren Erde wirtschaftlicher Freiheit blüht der menschliche Erfindungsgeist. Diese Erkenntnis ist keine ideologische Position, sondern eine durch die Geschichte vielfach bestätigte Wahrheit.
Die Lektion dieser Erfolgsgeschichten ist sowohl schlicht als auch tiefgründig: Der Weg zu Wohlstand und menschlicher Entfaltung führt über die Anerkennung und den Schutz wirtschaftlicher Freiheiten. In dieser Erkenntnis liegt vielleicht das wahre Wunder – die beständige Kraft einer einfachen Idee, die immer wieder Leben und Hoffnung in die dunkelsten wirtschaftlichen Landschaften bringt.
Der aufsteigende Stern des Südens
Jenseits der Andenkette, wo Argentinien und Chile ihre lange Grenze teilen, entfaltet sich eine neue Erfolgsgeschichte. Mit mutigen Reformen und einer Rückbesinnung auf wirtschaftliche Freiheit erwacht dieses Land mit viel Potenzial aus seinem langen Schlummer. Was wir beobachten, ist nichts weniger als die Geburt eines neuen südamerikanischen Wirtschaftswunders – geboren aus der Erkenntnis, dass Wohlstand nicht verteilt, sondern erschaffen wird.
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:44News
- Wallet of Satoshi teases a comeback in the US market with a non-custodial product. According to an announcement on X, the widely popular custodial Lightning wallet is preparing to re-enter the United States market with a non-custodial wallet. It is unclear whether the product will be open-source, but the project has clarified that "there will be no KYC on any Wallet of Satoshi, ever!" Wallet of Satoshi ceased serving customers in the United States in November 2023.
- Vulnerability disclosure: Remote crash due to addr message spam in Bitcoin Core versions before v29. Bitcoin Core developer Antoine Poinsot disclosed an integer overflow bug that crashes a node if spammed with addr messages over an extended period. A fix was released on April 14, 2025, in Bitcoin Core v29.0. The issue is rated Low severity.
- Coinbase Know Your Customer (KYC) data leak. The U.S. Department of Justice, including its Criminal Division in Washington, is investigating a cyberattack on Coinbase. The incident involved cybercriminals attempting to extort $20 million from Coinbase to prevent stolen customer data from being leaked online. Although the data breach affected less than 1% of the exchange's users, Coinbase now faces at least six lawsuits following the revelation that some customer support agents were bribed as part of the extortion scheme.
- Fold has launched Bitcoin Gift Cards, enabling users to purchase bitcoin for personal use or as gifts, redeemable via the Fold app. These cards are currently available on Fold’s website and are planned to expand to major retailers nationwide later this year.
"Our mission is to make bitcoin simple and approachable for everyone. The Bitcoin Gift Card brings bitcoin to millions of Americans in a familiar way. Available at the places people already shop, the Bitcoin Gift Card is the best way to gift bitcoin to others," said Will Reeves, Chairman and CEO of Fold.
- Corporate treasuries hold nearly 1.1 million BTC, representing about 5.5% of the total circulating supply (1,082,164 BTC), per BitcoinTreasuries.net data. Recent purchases include Strategy adding 7,390 BTC (total: 576,230 BTC), Metplanet acquiring 1,004 BTC (total: 7,800 BTC), Tether holding over 100,521 BTC, and XXI Capital, led by Jack Mallers, starting with 31,500 BTC.
- Meanwhile, a group of investors has filed a class action lawsuit against Strategy and its executive Michael Saylor. The lawsuit alleges that Strategy made overly optimistic projections using fair value accounting under new FASB rules while downplaying potential losses.
- The U.S. Senate voted to advance the GENIUS stablecoin bill for further debate before a final vote to pass it. Meanwhile, the House is crafting its own stablecoin legislation to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins and their issuers in the U.S, reports CoinDesk.
- French 'crypto' entrepreneurs get priority access to emergency police services. French Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, agreed on measures to enhance security for 'crypto' professionals during a meeting on Friday. This follows a failed kidnapping attempt on Tuesday targeting the family of a cryptocurrency exchange CEO, and two other kidnappings earlier this year.
- Brussels Court declares tracking-based ads illegal in EU. The Brussels Court of Appeal ruled tracking-based online ads illegal in the EU due to an inadequate consent model. Major tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and X are affected by the decision, as their consent pop-ups fail to protect privacy in real-time bidding, writes The Record.
- Telegram shares data on 22,777 users in Q1 2025, a significant increase from the 5,826 users' data shared during the same period in 2024. This significant increase follows the arrest of CEO and founder Pavel Durov last year.
- An Australian judge has ruled that Bitcoin is money, potentially exempting it from capital gains tax in the country. If upheld on appeal, this interim decision could lead to taxpayer refunds worth up to $1 billion, per tax lawyer Adrian Cartland.
Use the tools
- Bitcoin Safe v1.3.0 a secure and user-friendly Bitcoin savings wallet for beginners and advanced users, introduces an interactive chart, Child Pays For Parent (CPFP) support, testnet4 compatibility, preconfigured testnet demo wallets, various bug fixes, and other improvements.
- BlueWallet v7.1.8 brings numerous bug fixes, dependency updates, and a new search feature for addresses and transactions.
- Aqua Wallet v0.3.0 is out, offering beta testing for the reloadable Dolphin card (in partnership with Visa) for spending bitcoin and Liquid BTC. It also includes a new Optical Character Recognition (OCR) text scanner to read text addresses like QR codes, colored numbers on addresses for better readability, a reduced minimum for spending and swapping Liquid Bitcoin to 100 sats, plus other fixes and enhancements.
Source: Aqua wallet.
- The latest firmware updates for COLDCARD Mk4 v5.4.3 and Q v1.3.3 are now available, featuring the latest enhancements and bug fixes.
- Nunchuk Android v1.9.68.1 and iOS v1.9.79 introduce support for custom blockchain explorers, wallet archiving, re-ordering wallets on the home screen via long-press, and an anti-fee sniping setting.
- BDK-cli v1.0.0, a CLI wallet library and REPL tool to demo and test the BDK library, now uses bdk_wallet 1.0.0 and integrates Kyoto, utilizing the Kyoto protocol for compact block filters. It sets SQLite as the default database and discontinues support for sled.
- publsp is a new command-line tool designed for Lightning node runners or Lightning Service Providers (LSPs) to advertise liquidity offers over Nostr.
"LSPs advertise liquidity as addressable Kind 39735 events. Clients just pull and evaluate all those structured events, then NIP-17 DM an LSP of their choice to coordinate a liquidity purchase," writes developer smallworlnd.
-
Lightning Blinder by Super Testnet is a proof-of-concept privacy tool for the Lightning Network. It enables users to mislead Lightning Service Providers (LSPs) by making it appear as though one wallet is the sender or recipient, masking the original wallet. Explore and try it out here.
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Mempal v1.5.3, a Bitcoin mempool monitoring and notification app for Android, now includes a swipe-down feature to refresh the dashboard, a custom time option for widget auto-update frequency, and a
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:43I've pulled together the most compelling forward-looking predictions from our recent podcast conversations. These insights highlight where our guests see opportunities and challenges in the Bitcoin ecosystem, energy markets, and beyond.
AI Agents Will Drive Bitcoin Adoption More Than Human Users by 2030 - Andrew Myers
Andrew Myers described how the artificial intelligence revolution will fundamentally transform Bitcoin usage patterns over the next few years. He highlighted Paul's tweet that suggested machine-to-machine transactions using Bitcoin will soon dominate the network.
"We talk about Bitcoin being used as a medium of exchange. We're going to find that the machines are doing most of that exchange at some point relatively soon," Andrew explained. "The agents using Bitcoin to complete tasks using something like L4 or two protocol is going to far surpass the amount of transactions that humans are doing to do things in their everyday lives."
Andrew believes AI agents will naturally gravitate toward Bitcoin because it's more energy-efficient from a computational perspective than traditional payment rails. As AI systems optimize for energy efficiency, Bitcoin's direct settlement mechanism becomes increasingly attractive compared to legacy financial infrastructure. This shift could accelerate Bitcoin adoption in ways we haven't fully anticipated, creating a new category of machine-driven demand.
CalPERS Funding Status Will Drop Below 70% by June 2025 - Dom Bei
Dom Bei, who's running for the Board of Trustees at CalPERS, made a concerning prediction about America's largest public pension fund. Currently sitting at approximately 75% funded, Dom warned the situation could deteriorate further after recent tariff-related markdowns.
"They say that the fund had a $26 billion markdown, which if my math is correct, would bring the fund closer towards the 70% funded number," Dom explained. He noted the fund needs to recover these losses before the June 30, 2025 reporting deadline, or face serious consequences.
If CalPERS funding status drops below 70%, Dom predicts a familiar pattern will unfold: municipalities and taxpayers will face higher contribution rates to cover the shortfall, diverting money from essential services like parks, schools, and public safety. This would likely trigger another round of pension reform debates targeting worker benefits, despite similar reforms in 2013 failing to address the fundamental performance issues plaguing the fund.
Energy Companies Will Incorporate Bitcoin Into Settlements Within 3 Years - Andrew Myers
Andrew Myers outlined a compelling vision for Bitcoin's integration into energy markets, predicting that by 2027 (block 1,050,000), we'll see widespread adoption of Bitcoin for energy transactions and settlements. He described his company's mission as enabling "every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000."
"Our mantra for Bitcoin is fast, accurate, transparent energy transactions," Andrew explained. He highlighted several inefficiencies in current energy markets that Bitcoin could solve, including: Information asymmetry between energy buyers and sellers. Slow 30-day billing cycles creating unnecessary credit risk
Capital locked up in prepayments, deposits, and collateral requirements.Andrew revealed that his team has already prototyped a Bitcoin collateral product and that a major energy company in Texas is currently building similar functionality. He predicts these early implementations will demonstrate Bitcoin's potential to unlock billions in working capital across the energy sector through faster settlement and reduced collateral requirements.
Most significantly, Andrew mentioned early discussions with independent system operators about modifying power market protocols to incorporate Bitcoin as an alternative settlement mechanism alongside the US dollar.
Blockspace conducts cutting-edge proprietary research for investors.
Bitcoin Miners Face Hard Choices as AI Data Centers Pick Prime Locations
Bitcoin miners hoping to cash in on the AI boom by selling their facilities to hyperscalers are finding fewer opportunities than expected. With mining economics dimming and specific buyer requirements limiting potential deals, the industry faces significant challenges.
Christian Lopez, Head of Blockchain and Digital Assets at Cohen and Company Capital Markets, notes a "glut of bitcoin mines" currently on the market. While miners control substantial power resources, hyperscalers typically demand facilities with at least 150-200 megawatts capacity within 100 miles of major cities—criteria most mining operations don't meet.
An estimated 1-1.5 gigawatts of mining capacity is available for acquisition, creating downward pressure on power prices. This oversupply stems from both deteriorating mining economics and overoptimistic AI-related expectations. The valuation gap remains a persistent obstacle: "Buyers face the critical 'buy versus build' question," Lopez explains. While buyers typically value sites at $300,000-$500,000 per megawatt plus a modest premium, sellers often seek $1.5-$2 million per megawatt based on public company valuations.
Adding to these challenges, retrofitting mining sites for high-performance computing often requires completely reconstructing the power infrastructure rather than leveraging existing setups. Despite current difficulties, industry sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with many experts predicting Bitcoin could reach $125,000-$200,000 by late 2025.
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@ 2b24a1fa:17750f64
2025-05-25 09:42:49Eine Stunde Klassik! Der Münchner Pianist und "Musikdurchdringer" Jürgen Plich stellt jeden Dienstag um 20 Uhr große klassische Musik vor. Er teilt seine Hör- und Spielerfahrung und seine persönliche Sicht auf die Meisterwerke. Er spielt selbst besondere, unbekannte Aufnahmen, erklärt, warum die Musik so und nicht anders klingt und hat eine Menge aus dem Leben der Komponisten zu erzählen.
https://soundcloud.com/radiomuenchen/eine-stunde-klassik-opus-eins?
Sonntags um 10 Uhr in der Wiederholung.
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-25 09:20:07Phasellus erat metus, suscipit et nisi a, dignissim luctus risus\ Nam eleifend aliquet aliquam
Curabitur vulputate velit elit, sit amet euismod nibh venenatis et
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:43Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.
This update brings key enhancements for clarity and usability:
- Recent Blocks View: Added to the Send tab and inspired by Mempool's visualization, it displays the last 2 blocks and the estimated next block to help choose fee rates.
- Camera System Overhaul: Features a new library for higher resolution detection and mouse-scroll zoom support when available.
- Vector-Based Images: All app images are now vectorized and theme-aware, enhancing contrast, especially in dark mode.
- Tor & P2A Updates: Upgraded internal Tor and improved support for pay-to-anchor (P2A) outputs.
- Linux Package Rename: For Linux users, Sparrow has been renamed to sparrowwallet (or sparrowserver); in some cases, the original sparrow package may need manual removal.
- Additional updates include showing total payments in multi-payment transaction diagrams, better handling of long labels, and other UI enhancements.
- Sparrow v2.2.1 is a bug fix release that addresses missing UUID issue when starting Tor on recent macOS versions, icons for external sources in Settings and Recent Blocks view, repackaged
.deb
installs to use older gzip instead of zstd compression, and removed display of median fee rate where fee rates source is set to Server.
Learn how to get started with Sparrow wallet:
Release notes (v2.2.0)
- Added Recent Blocks view to Send tab.
- Converted all bitmapped images to theme aware SVG format for all wallet models and dialogs.
- Support send and display of pay to anchor (P2A) outputs.
- Renamed
sparrow
package tosparrowwallet
andsparrowserver
on Linux. - Switched camera library to openpnp-capture.
- Support FHD (1920 x 1080) and UHD4k (3840 x 2160) capture resolutions.
- Support camera zoom with mouse scroll where possible.
- In the Download Verifier, prefer verifying the dropped file over the default file where the file is not in the manifest.
- Show a warning (with an option to disable the check) when importing a wallet with a derivation path matching another script type.
- In Cormorant, avoid calling the
listwalletdir
RPC on initialization due to a potentially slow response on Windows. - Avoid server address resolution for public servers.
- Assume server address is non local for resolution failures where a proxy is configured.
- Added a tooltip to indicate truncated labels in table cells.
- Dynamically truncate input and output labels in the tree on a transaction tab, and add tooltips if necessary.
- Improved tooltips for wallet tabs and transaction diagrams with long labels.
- Show the address where available on input and output tooltips in transaction tab tree.
- Show the total amount sent in payments in the transaction diagram when constructing multiple payment transactions.
- Reset preferred table column widths on adjustment to improve handling after window resizing.
- Added accessible text to improve screen reader navigation on seed entry.
- Made Wallet Summary table grow horizontally with dialog sizing.
- Reduced tooltip show delay to 200ms.
- Show transaction diagram fee percentage as less than 0.01% rather than 0.00%.
- Optimized and reduced Electrum server RPC calls.
- Upgraded Bouncy Castle, PGPainless and Logback libraries.
- Upgraded internal Tor to v0.4.8.16.
- Bug fix: Fixed issue with random ordering of keystore origins on labels import.
- Bug fix: Fixed non-zero account script type detection when signing a message on Trezor devices.
- Bug fix: Fixed issue parsing remote Coldcard xpub encoded on a different network.
- Bug fix: Fixed inclusion of fees on wallet label exports.
- Bug fix: Increase Trezor device libusb timeout.
Linux users: Note that the
sparrow
package has been renamed tosparrowwallet
orsparrowserver
, and in some cases you may need to manually uninstall the originalsparrow
package. Look in the/opt
folder to ensure you have the new name, and the original is removed.What's new in v2.2.1
- Updated Tor library to fix missing UUID issue when starting Tor on recent macOS versions.
- Repackaged
.deb
installs to use older gzip instead of zstd compression. - Removed display of median fee rate where fee rates source is set to Server.
- Added icons for external sources in Settings and Recent Blocks view
- Bug fix: Fixed issue in Recent Blocks view when switching fee rates source
- Bug fix: Fixed NPE on null fee returned from server
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@ dfa02707:41ca50e3
2025-05-25 15:01:43- This version introduces the Soroban P2P network, enabling Dojo to relay transactions to the Bitcoin network and share others' transactions to break the heuristic linking relaying nodes to transaction creators.
- Additionally, Dojo admins can now manage API keys in DMT with labels, status, and expiration, ideal for community Dojo providers like Dojobay. New API endpoints, including "/services" exposing Explorer, Soroban, and Indexer, have been added to aid wallet developers.
- Other maintenance updates include Bitcoin Core, Tor, Fulcrum, Node.js, plus an updated ban-knots script to disconnect inbound Knots nodes.
"I want to thank all the contributors. This again shows the power of true Free Software. I also want to thank everyone who donated to help Dojo development going. I truly appreciate it," said Still Dojo Coder.
What's new
- Soroban P2P network. For MyDojo (Docker setup) users, Soroban will be automatically installed as part of their Dojo. This integration allows Dojo to utilize the Soroban P2P network for various upcoming features and applications.
- PandoTx. PandoTx serves as a transaction transport layer. When your wallet sends a transaction to Dojo, it is relayed to a random Soroban node, which then forwards it to the Bitcoin network. It also enables your Soroban node to receive and relay transactions from others to the Bitcoin network and is designed to disrupt the assumption that a node relaying a transaction is closely linked to the person who initiated it.
- Pushing transactions through Soroban can be deactivated by setting
NODE_PANDOTX_PUSH=off
indocker-node.conf
. - Processing incoming transactions from Soroban network can be deactivated by setting
NODE_PANDOTX_PROCESS=off
indocker-node.conf
.
- Pushing transactions through Soroban can be deactivated by setting
- API key management has been introduced to address the growing number of people offering their Dojos to the community. Dojo admins can now access a new API management tab in their DMT, where they can create unlimited API keys, assign labels for easy identification, and set expiration dates for each key. This allows admins to avoid sharing their main API key and instead distribute specific keys to selected parties.
- New API endpoints. Several new API endpoints have been added to help API consumers develop features on Dojo more efficiently:
- New:
/latest-block
- returns data about latest block/txout/:txid/:index
- returns unspent output data/support/services
- returns info about services that Dojo exposes
- Updated:
/tx/:txid
- endpoint has been updated to return raw transaction with parameter?rawHex=1
- The new
/support/services
endpoint replaces the deprecatedexplorer
field in the Dojo pairing payload. Although still present, API consumers should use this endpoint for explorer and other pairing data.
- New:
Other changes
- Updated ban script to disconnect inbound Knots nodes.
- Updated Fulcrum to v1.12.0.
- Regenerate Fulcrum certificate if expired.
- Check if transaction already exists in pushTx.
- Bump BTC-RPC Explorer.
- Bump Tor to v0.4.8.16, bump Snowflake.
- Updated Bitcoin Core to v29.0.
- Removed unnecessary middleware.
- Fixed DB update mechanism, added api_keys table.
- Add an option to use blocksdir config for bitcoin blocks directory.
- Removed deprecated configuration.
- Updated Node.js dependencies.
- Reconfigured container dependencies.
- Fix Snowflake git URL.
- Fix log path for testnet4.
- Use prebuilt addrindexrs binaries.
- Add instructions to migrate blockchain/fulcrum.
- Added pull policies.
Learn how to set up and use your own Bitcoin privacy node with Dojo here.
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@ 86dfbe73:628cef55
2025-05-25 08:20:07Robustheit ist die Eigenschaft eines Systems, auch unter schwierigen Bedingungen funktionieren zu können: trotz Störungen und einer gewissen Verschlechterung seiner internen Prozesse. Das Leben als Ganzes ist robust. Dasselbe gilt für Ökosysteme: Sie können den Verlust einiger Arten überstehen und sich an veränderte Umweltbedingungen anpassen.
Der Hauptfeind der Robustheit ist das Streben nach Effizienz. Ein auf Effizienz optimiertes System hat keine Reserven mehr, sich an Störungen anzupassen. Es wird fragil. Wir optimieren die Gesellschaft und ihre Subsysteme (z. B. Institutionen) seit 5000 Jahren auf Wachstum, Effizienz und Produktivität. Und wir haben das Optimierungstempo mit den beiden Turbo-Boosts fossile Brennstoffe und Informationstechnologie beschleunigt. Deshalb ist alles um uns herum fragil geworden. Beispielsweise kann ein Virusausbruch in China sich zu einer Pandemie entwickeln, weil die Menschen weit und schnell reisen können und müssen.
Robustheit ist nicht absolut und dauerhaft. Ein System kann durch Störungen, die zu gravierend für es sind, fragil werden. Ehemals robuste Ökosysteme wie Regenwälder wurden durch menschliche Ausbeutung fragil. Deregulierung hat sowohl Regierungen als auch die Wirtschaft effizienter gemacht, allerdings zum Preis zunehmender Fragilität. Unternehmen sind mächtiger geworden als viele Staaten, was bedeutet, dass demokratisch gewählte Parlamente und Regierungen nicht mehr die Kontrolle haben. Heute kann eine einzelne Person demokratische Wahlen weltweit manipulieren, indem sie ein soziales Netzwerk kontrolliert. Das ist Fragilität pur.
Wir müssen als Gesellschaft die Effizienz in den Hintergrund rücken und uns mehr auf Robustheit konzentrieren.
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:42Key Takeaways
Lyn Alden unpacks the complex interplay of global trade imbalances, the dollar’s entrenched reserve currency status, and America’s eroded industrial base, arguing that aggressive tariffs under Trump have backfired by hurting U.S. businesses without reversing decades of offshoring. She illustrates how China has rapidly ascended the value chain, dominating key industries and making it nearly impossible for the U.S. to build a trade coalition against them. Despite the U.S.’s massive debt and persistent global demand for dollars, cracks are forming in the system as nations explore alternative payment systems and neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin. Lyn emphasizes that Bitcoin’s most effective path to integration is through grassroots and corporate adoption, not government-led initiatives, and warns that unless the U.S. urgently scales its energy and industrial capacity, it risks falling further behind China’s unmatched pace of growth and infrastructure dominance.
Best Quotes
- "The trade deficit is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services, which sounds like a really good deal."
- "It's better to correct these imbalances from a position of strength, not weakness."
- "All that debt creates inflexible demand for dollars. There’s literally way more demand than dollars in the system."
- "China became the largest auto exporter in the world in just four years."
- "Bitcoin isn’t changing to fit into the global financial system. The global financial system is changing to fit Bitcoin."
- "Individuals, small businesses, corporations—these are the real drivers of Bitcoin adoption. Not governments."
Conclusion
This episode offers a sobering look at America’s trade and currency dilemmas, with Lyn Alden explaining why quick policy fixes like tariffs can’t reverse decades of deindustrialization tied to the dollar’s reserve status. She highlights the rise of neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin as important hedges, stressing that grassroots and corporate adoption will be more effective than government-led efforts. Lyn also warns that without a major push to expand energy production, the U.S. risks falling behind in an AI-driven, hardware-centric world, urging strategic humility and innovation to navigate the shifting global order.
Timestamps
0:00 - Intro
0:31 - Triffin's dilemma
8:10 - Debt leverage
11:04 - Fold & Bitkey
12:41 - Trump's goals and tariff policy
19:54 - Unchained
20:24 - China is not weak
30:07 - Energy
37:15 - AI/robots
41:11 - SBR
48:47 - Bitcoin credit products
52:40 - Eventful week for bitcoinTranscript
(00:00) They ramped up tariffs super high, super quickly. In many cases, were so high that they hurt us as much as some of our trade adversaries. China has ramped up to like unfathomable degrees. Nuclear, solar, pretty much everything that they can throw money at they're building. The trade is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services, which sounds like a really good deal.
(00:19) They take those slips of paper and then they buy our stocks. They buy our corporate bonds and government bonds. And so they end up owning a larger and larger share of corporate America. got the headphone hair. I'm all out of whack, Lynn. It's been a long week here in Austin. Yeah, I can imagine. It's been a long time since we've talked on the show. It's been two years.
(00:41) I was checking, which is a astonishing to me. But no better time than now. Uh I think quite literally based off of all the conversations we've had uh over the years. I mean, your famous saying, nothing stops this train. I think we're coming to a juncture where that's becoming abundantly clear. and you wrote uh a newsletter earlier this week, I believe you sent it out Sunday, that basically highlighted the crux of the problem, which is the dollar reserve status and the almost impossible task that Trump would like to accomplish, but
(01:21) likely isn't the case, which is sort of solving Triffin's dilemma of reshoring manufacturing while keeping US dollar dominance. So I think diving into this from first principles would be great. Sure. Yeah. And that's that's the um I can imagine the administration's challenge of trying to communicate this because uh the intricacies of how trade deficits and the reserve currency kind of pair together is very wonkish.
(01:46) It it kind of has this like academic quality to it that doesn't go over well uh in kind of political oriented speeches. Um like I would I would be terrible at a political rally for example when I try to explain any of this. Um and so we kind of have this situation where um and this was outlined back during the Breton Wood system by Triffin as you mentioned uh which is that having the reserve currency does come with a bunch of benefits um you know historically called a extraordin uh exorbitant privilege um but then it has certain costs to
(02:15) maintain it and those costs can vary a bit depending on how the system structure. So for example back in the Bretton Woods era the cost was that we kept draining our gold reserves. uh we basically had to kind of keep paying out our go gold gold reserves to maintain that part of the system and in the current formation uh instead we kind of pay for it with our industrial base.
(02:36) We keep kind of sending out little parts of our industrial base over time to maintain the the global reserve currency status. And there's a few reasons for that. One is that um because unlike every other fiat currency, the dollar has all these extra demands for it by countries all around the world. um all these different purposes.
(02:55) um there's this extra demand for dollars which sounds good on the surface and as for Americans for example we have tons of import power when we go on vacations to the rest of the world it's you know we have pretty strong purchasing power compared to when they come to the US um these things seem good on the surface but it also means that it's pretty expensive to manufacture lower margin things here at home uh and so we have this kind of situation where our imports are very strong our exports uh especially lower margin stuff is less uh
(03:22) competitive whereas we can still be competitive competitive on really high margin stuff, you know, technology, finance, healthcare, that kind of thing. Um, and then the other aspect is that even if you could somehow solve that, there's the more fundamental problem, which is that the whole world needs dollars uh for the you know, global reserve currency status to use it for international contract pricing, crossber financing, one side of every trade pair that they do, all these different purposes as a reserve asset. Um uh and
(03:51) when you step back and say, "Well, how do they get all those dollars if they're all using dollars? How did all those dollars get out there?" And the answer is trade deficits. Um basically that overvalued aspect forces open the US trade deficit. And every year we send out hundreds of billions or sometimes a trillion dollars in net outflows.
(04:10) And over years and decades, these have accumulated out there. And so, uh, kind of the way it works is that if you want to fix the trade deficit, which I've been I've been writing about since 2019, I think that's a I think that's a valid mandate to do. Um, unfortunately does come with trade-offs.
(04:26) Uh, some of the some of the benefits that that you know that we enjoy at the cost of the trade deficit. Um, if you do want to kind of fix that imbalance, it comes up, you know, with with basically giving away at least some of those benefits and prioritizing that that industrial base a bit more. And one of the dynamics that you highlighted in your newsletter, which makes sense, but wasn't very clear to me before, is that via these deficits, we flood international markets with dollars because we're sending parts of our industrial base over there. But then
(05:00) it's like cyclical. They take those dollars and then reinvest them in US financial assets. So it has this sort of flow where it goes out but then it comes back in into the financialized economy via equities and real estate and other such assets and that is good for asset owners here in the United States.
(05:19) But again I think that's is part of the bag of mandate is that sort of cycle has led to this large wealth gap in the United States that they're trying to fix. Yeah. Exactly. Um and so basically the opposite side of a current account deficit which is basically so the trade deficit plus things like interest and dividends.
(05:39) Um so we run a structural current account deficit and the opposite side of that is a capital account surplus. Um which is that funds flow in the rest of the world and buy our financial assets. Uh and so it's the the trade deficit is often described as us sending out pieces of paper and getting goods and services which sounds like a really good deal.
(05:57) Um but then the extra step of that that you mentioned is that they take those slips of paper or really those electronic digits that they have and then they buy our stocks, they buy our real estate, they buy our private equity, they they buy our corporate bonds and government bonds and so they end up owning a larger and larger share of corporate America as part of their kind of accumulated uh trade surpluses uh and reserve assets and uh international private assets.
(06:22) Um, and the kind of the consequence of this, if you kind of like view the foreign sector as an intermediary, we're basically constantly kind of taking economic vibrancy out of, you know, Michigan and Ohio and, uh, you know, rural Pennsylvania where the steel m -
@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1
2025-05-25 06:26:42I dare to claim that the big factor is the absence of an infinite feed design.
Modern social media landscape sucks for a myriad of reasons, but oh boy does the infinite feed take the crapcake. It's not just bad on it's own, it's emblematic of most, if not all other ways social media have deteriorated into an enshitification spiral. Let's see at just three things I hate about it the most.
1) It's addictive: In the race for your attention, every addictive design element helps. But infinite feed is addictive almost by default. Users are expected to pull the figurative lever until they hit a jackpot. Just one more reel, then I'll go to sleep.
2) Autonomy? What's that? You are not the one driving your experience. No. You are just a passenger passively absorbing what the feed feeds you.
3) Echo chambers. The algorithm might be more to blame here, but the infinite feed and it's super-limited exploration options sure don't help. Your feed only goes two ways - into the past and into the comfortable.
And I could go on, and on...
The point it, if the goal of every big tech company is to have us mindlessly and helplessly consume their products, without agency and opposition (and it is $$$), then the infinite feed gets them half-way there.
Let's get rid of it. For the sake of humanity.
Aphantasia [^1]
Version: 1.0.2 Alpha
What is Aphantasia?
I like to call it a social network for graph enthusiasts. It's a place where your thoughts live in time and space, interconnected with others and explorable in a graph view.
The code is open-source and you can take a look at it on GitHub. There you can find more information about contributions, API usage and other details related to the software.
There is also an accompanying youtube channel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeLOt-45rJM
[^1]: Aphantasia the software is named after aphantasia the condition - see Wikipedia for more information.
https://stacker.news/items/988754
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:42Marty's Bent
Last week we covered the bombshell developments in the Samourai Wallet case. For those who didn't read that, last Monday the world was made aware of the fact that the SDNY was explicitly told by FinCEN that the federal regulator did not believe that Samourai Wallet was a money services business six months before arresting the co-founders of Samourai Wallet for conspiracy to launder money and illegally operating a money services business. This was an obvious overstep by the SDNY that many believed would be quickly alleviated, especially considering the fact that the Trump administration via the Department of Justice has made it clear that they do not intend to rule via prosecution.
It seems that this is not the case as the SDNY responded to a letter sent from the defense to dismiss the case by stating that they fully plan to move forward. Stating that they only sought the recommendations of FinCEN employees and did not believe that those employees' comments were indicative of FinCEN's overall views on this particular case. It's a pretty egregious abuse of power by the SDNY. I'm not sure if the particular lawyers and judges within the Southern District of New York are very passionate about preventing the use of self-custody bitcoin and products that enable bitcoiners to transact privately, or if they're simply participating in a broader meta war with the Trump administration - who has made it clear to federal judges across the country that last Fall's election will have consequences, mainly that the Executive Branch will try to effectuate the policies that President Trump campaigned on by any legal means necessary - and Samouari Wallet is simply in the middle of that meta war.
However, one thing is pretty clear to me, this is an egregious overstep of power. The interpretation of that law, as has been laid out and confirmed by FinCEN over the last decade, is pretty clear; you cannot be a money services business if you do not control the funds that people are sending to each other, which is definitely the case with Samourai Wallet. People downloaded Samourai Wallet, spun up their own private-public key pairs and initiated transactions themselves. Samourai never custodied funds or initiated transactions on behalf of their users. This is very cut and dry. Straight to the point. It should be something that anyone with more than two brain cells is able to discern pretty quickly.
It is imperative that anybody in the industry who cares about being able to hold bitcoin in self-custody, to mine bitcoin, and to send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion makes some noise around this case. None of the current administration's attempts to foster innovation around bitcoin in the United States will matter if the wrong precedent is set in this case. If the SDNY is successful in prosecuting Samourai Wallet, it will mean that anybody holding Bitcoin in self-custody, running a bitcoin fold node or mining bitcoin will have to KYC all of their users and counterparts lest they be labeled a money services business that is breaking laws stemming from the Bank Secrecy Act. This will effectively make building a self-custody bitcoin wallet, running a node, or mining bitcoin in tillegal in the United States. The ability to comply with the rules that would be unleashed if this Samourai case goes the wrong way, are such that it will effectively destroy the industry overnight.
It is yet to be seen whether or not the Department of Justice will step in to publicly flog the SDNY and force them to stop pursuing this case. This is the only likely way that the case will go away at this point, so it is very important that bitcoiners who care about being able to self-custody bitcoin, mine bitcoin, or send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion in the United States make it clear to the current administration and any local politicians that this is an issue that you care deeply about. If we are too complacent, there is a chance that the SDNY could completely annihilate the bitcoin industry in America despite of all of the positive momentum we're seeing from all angles at the moment.
Bitcoin Adoption by Power Companies: The Next Frontier
In my recent conversation with Andrew Myers from Satoshi Energy, he shared their ambitious mission to "enable every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000" – roughly three years from now. This strategic imperative isn't just about creating new Bitcoin users; it's about sovereignty. Andrew emphasized that getting Bitcoin into the hands of energy companies who value self-sovereignty creates a more balanced future economic landscape. The excitement was palpable as he described how several energy companies are already moving beyond simply selling power to Bitcoin miners and are beginning to invest in mining operations themselves.
"You have global commodity companies being like, 'Oh, this is another commodity – we want to invest in this, we want to own this,'" - Andrew Myers
Perhaps most fascinating was Andrew's revelation about major energy companies in Texas developing Bitcoin collateral products for power contracts – a practical application that could revolutionize how energy transactions are settled. As energy companies continue embracing Bitcoin for both operations and collateral, we're witnessing the early stages of a profound shift in how critical infrastructure interfaces with sound money. The implications for both sectors could be transformative.
Check out the full podcast here for more on remote viewing, Nikola Tesla's predictions, and the convergence of Bitcoin and AI technology. We cover everything from humanoid robots to the energy demands of next-generation computing.
Headlines of the Day
Steak n Shake to Accept Bitcoin at All Locations May 16 - via X
Facebook Plans Crypto Wallets for 3B Users, Bitcoin Impact Looms - via X
Trump Urges Americans to Buy Stocks for Economic Boom - via X
UK Drops Tariffs, U.S. Farmers Set to Reap Major Benefits - via X
Looking for the perfect video to push the smartest person you know from zero to one on bitcoin? Bitcoin, Not Crypto is a three-part master class from Parker Lewis and Dhruv Bansal that cuts through the noise—covering why 21 million was the key technical simplification that made bitcoin possible, why blockchains don’t create decentralization, and why everything else will be built on bitcoin.
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
Final thought...
Happy belated Mother's Day to all the moms out there.
Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/
Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:
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@ 21810ca8:f2e8341e
2025-05-25 05:02:33If so, please comment. So I can see if Nostr works for me.
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:41Key Takeaways
Dr. Jack Kruse returns in this fiery episode to expose what he alleges is a coordinated campaign by Big Pharma, technocrats, and global elites to control public health narratives and financial systems through manipulated health policies and propaganda. He accuses figures like Calli and Casey Means of fronting a compromised "Maha Movement," backed by A16Z, Big Tech, and the World Economic Forum, with ambitions to embed themselves into U.S. health policy and bioweapons programs. Kruse details his covert efforts to expose these connections, claiming they led to the withdrawal of Casey Means' Surgeon General nomination, and warns of a looming biotechnocratic surveillance state where mRNA vaccines act as bioweapons to enforce compliance. Urging Bitcoiners to expand their fight for sovereignty beyond finance into healthcare and biology, Kruse argues that the true war is over time sovereignty—not just monetary freedom—and that protecting children from vaccine harms is now the most urgent front in this escalating battle.
Best Quotes
"Bitcoin is worthless if you have no time."
"We’re not playing games here. This is to the death."
"Big Pharma is just the drug dealer. The real boss is the Department of Defense and DARPA."
"The real battle in D.C. isn’t left vs. right, it’s Rothschilds and Rockefellers vs. the technocrats."
"First principle Bitcoiners need to become first principle decentralizers of life itself."
Conclusion
This episode delivers a provocative call to action from Dr. Jack Kruse, who warns that the fight for sovereignty must go beyond finance to confront what he sees as the immediate threat of centralized bio-surveillance through mRNA vaccines. Blending insider claims with health activism, Kruse urges Bitcoiners and the public to recognize that true freedom requires decentralizing not only money but also healthcare and information systems, arguing that without protecting biological sovereignty, Bitcoin’s promise of liberty will be meaningless if people are left physically, mentally, or politically compromised.
Timestamps
0:00 - Intro
0:47 - Outlining MAHA infiltration
22:59 - Fold & Bitkey
24:35- Danger to children
28:27 - Political shell game
35:40 - Unchained
36:09 - Time theft
41:07 - Vax data
46:32 - Bioweapon and control system
58:29 - Game plan - Decentralized yourself
1:15:16 - Priorities
1:24:30 - Support Mary Talley BowdenTranscript
(00:00) me, Larry Leard, those kind of Bitcoiners, the people that are out there that have money, like they're looking to take us out. You need to know a little bit about the back history that I don't think I've talked about anywhere on any other podcast. Rick Callie is linked to the current administration is through Susie Watts.
(00:17) They both were working at Mercury PR basically is the frontman for propaganda for Big Farm. Basically, who pays you? You become their [ __ ] We're not playing games here. This is to the death. This is the biggest issue facing Maha now. It's not Froot Loops. It's not red dye. But the messenger RA job can drop you like Demar Handler.
(00:40) Can end your career like JJ Watt. Dr. Jack Cruz, welcome back to the show. Thank you, sir, for having me. Well, thank you for being here. I mean, you're making a lot of noise around a topic that I wasn't well aware of. I'm not going to lie. I think I got duped by or we'll find out if I actually got duped by the meanses. Cali means was coming in last year talking big about Maja getting the food correct.
(01:15) Um, basically telling the story of him being a lobbyist and understanding how corrupt the food system is. And we talked about it last time we were on two months ago. this sort of maha movement has shifted towards focusing on preventative care particularly in diets and you were on the Danny Danny Jones show late last year with Cali means uh sort of pressuring him to admit that the vaccine should be pulled off the market and he did not did not bite and would not budge on that and now his sister Casey has been appointed to surgeon general and
(01:50) this is something Let me let me tell you a little bit about that because you need to know a little bit about the back history that I don't think I've talked about anywhere on any other podcast. She was going to be named surgeon general uh back then. Just so you know that I knew it and I knew quite a bit of other things.
(02:16) So what was my goal? I knew um that Cali and Casey were tied to big tech. They were tied specifically, which you'll be interested in, A16Z, the shitcoiners extraordinaire, and they were also tied to the World Economic Forum through the book deal. Um, so my goal at that time as part of the person that was big in the mob like, and Marty, I don't know if you know this back part of the story.
(02:46) Maha begins not with Casey and Cali and Bobby Kennedy. It began with me, Bobby, and Rick Rubin on Rick's podcast the day that I told RFK Jr. that SV40 was in the Fiser Jabs. Mhm. And that's when Bobby found out that I wrote the law for Blly for a constitutional amendment for medical freedom. And he asked me to use four pages of the law.
(03:13) And Blly cleared me to do that. And then Aaron Siri, who was Bobby's attorney and working with a lot of the stuff that Bobby does with vaccines and I can Aaron contacted me. So just so you're clear, this is two and a half years ago. This is before this is a year previous to Casey and Cali coming on the scene. And I was always behind the scenes.
(03:37) I was not really interested in getting involved um in the [ __ ] show. But when I saw these two show up, the way they showed up and when I heard Cali actually say on a podcast that, you know, he was the modus operande of the Maha movement and he's the one that brought Bobby and Trump together.
(04:02) I said, "That's where I draw a [ __ ] line." I'm like, "Uh-uh. These guys, I know exactly what they're going to do. I see the game plan. they're going to use a shell game and I needed to have proof before you can come out and be a savage. You got to have proof. So, I hired three former Secret Service agents to actually do a very deep dive.
(04:24) We're talking about the kind of dive that you would get uh if you were going for a Supreme Court nomination. Okay? It cost me a lot of money. And why did I think it was important? Because as you know, you know, as a Bitcoiner, you just saw the big scam that happened with Maya Paribu down in Cerninam that happened after.
(04:49) Well, when I hired these guys, when all of my research that I had done was confirmed by them, I said, "Okay, now we need to go on a podcast very publicly and we need to put Cali's feet to the fire." Why? because I knew and he did not know that I knew this prior to the podcast. Uh that his sister was going to be nominated for surgeon general then.
(05:14) And because he didn't know and you you'll be able to confirm this or the savages in your audience can confirm this with Danny Jones. Do you know that Cali cancelled the podcast to do it into uh February? Yeah. Well, I think it was April of 25 because he didn't want to give anybody the time and day.
(05:37) So, what did I start doing? I started posting some of the information back in November that I found and the links to the Wjikis and the links to Bin, the links to A16Z. I didn't didn't give a ton of the information, but let's just put it this way. enough to make Callie and Cassie scream a little bit that people in DC started to read all my tweets.
(06:04) And then he called Danny up and said, "Danny, I want to do this podcast immediately." And I knew the reason why. Cuz I was baiting him to come so I could hit him with the big stuff. Why? Because you have to understand these two kids, you know, tied to the Rockefellers. They're tied to the banking elite.
(06:26) They're tied to the World Economics Form. Rick Callie is linked to the current administration is through Susie Watts. They both were working at Mercury PR and uh Mercury PR uh basically is the frontman for propaganda for Big Farm and everybody knows that, but not everybody knew that Cali worked for them.
(06:50) And you know the story that he sold all you guys, how he fooled you. And I consider you a smart guy, a savage, it's not shocking how he fooled you because he said as a um a lobbyist basically who pays you, you become their [ __ ] to to be quite honest and you'll say things that will make sense. Everybody in creation who's going to watch your podcast knows that all the things that Casey and Cali have said have been said literally for 30, 40, 50 years going all the way back to probably Anel Peas about diet and exercise.
(07:25) Everybody [ __ ] knows that. It's not new. They just decided to repackage it up and then they actually got in Bobby's ear about it. And when I released all this stuff, did Bobby know what I had? Yeah, he knew. And did the people in DC all what all their antennas up about this issue? Who was most pissed off with Uncle Jack back then? Susie [ __ ] Walls.
(07:56) Why? because those two are her babies that were going to be the amber that Susie Cassidy Cassidy Big Farmer were going to place around um Bobby Kennedy once he got confirmed. And that's why for the savages that are listening to this podcast, you go back and look at Nicole's tweet from, you know, I guess it was about four or five days ago that this didn't make sense.
(08:20) Why? because I gave the data directly to the people in DC behind the scenes of what was really going on and because it was so explosive. That's the reason Susie had to not give the job to Casey Means. She had to wait till the heat died down. So they elevated Janette and Janette bas -
@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 04:48:11Michigan lawmakers are unveiling a comprehensive strategy to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
On May 21, Republican Representative Bill Schuette introduced House Bill 4510, a proposal to amend the Michigan Public Employee Retirement System Investment Act. The legislation would allow the state treasurer, currently Rachael Eubanks, to diversify the state’s investments by including cryptocurrencies with an average market capitalization of over $250 million in the past calendar year.
Under current criteria, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are the only cryptocurrencies that meet these selection standards. The proposal specifies that any investment in digital assets must be made through exchange-traded products (spot ETFs) issued by registered investment companies.
Anti-CBDC legislation
Republican Representative Bryan Posthumus is leading the bipartisan initiative behind the second bill, HB 4511, which establishes protections for cryptocurrency holders. The proposal prohibits Michigan from implementing crypto bans or imposing licensing requirements on digital asset holders.
Another key aspect of the legislation is a ban on state officials from supporting or promoting a potential federal central bank digital currency (CBDC). The definition includes the issuance of memorandums or official statements endorsing CBDC proposals related to testing, adoption, or implementation.
Mining and redevelopment of abandoned sites
The third bill, HB 4512, is a proposal led by Democratic Representative Mike McFall for a bipartisan group. This initiative would establish a Bitcoin mining program allowing operators to use abandoned oil and natural gas sites.
The program calls for the appointment of a supervisor tasked with assessing the site’s remaining productive potential, identifying the last operator, and determining the length of abandonment. Prospective participants would need to submit detailed legal documentation of their organizational structure, demonstrate operational expertise in mining, and provide profitability breakeven estimates for their ventures.
The fourth and final bill, HB 4513, also introduced by the bipartisan group led by McFall, focuses on the fiscal aspect of the HB 4512 initiative. The proposal would amend Michigan’s income tax laws to include proceeds generated from the proposed Bitcoin mining program.
The post Michigan: four bills on pension funds, CBDCs, and mining appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 04:48:10A fake Uber driver steals $73,000 in XRP and $50,000 in Bitcoin after drugging an American tourist.
A U.S. citizen vacationing in the United Kingdom fell victim to a scam that cost him $123,000 in cryptocurrencies stored on his smartphone. The man was drugged by an individual posing as an Uber driver.
According to My London, Jacob Irwin-Cline had spent the evening at a London nightclub, consuming several alcoholic drinks before requesting an Uber ride home. The victim admitted he hadn’t carefully verified the booking details on his device, mistakenly getting into a private taxi driven by someone who, at first glance, resembled the expected Uber driver but was using a completely different vehicle.
Once inside the car, the American tourist reported that the driver offered him a cigarette, allegedly laced with scopolamine — a rare and powerful sedative. Irwin-Cline described how the smoke made him extremely docile and fatigued, causing him to lose consciousness for around half an hour.
Upon waking, the driver ordered the victim to get out of the vehicle. As Irwin-Cline stepped out, the man suddenly accelerated, running him over and fleeing with his mobile phone, which contained the private keys and access to his cryptocurrencies. Screenshots provided to MyLondon show that $73,000 worth of XRP and $50,000 in bitcoin had been transferred to various wallets.
This incident adds to a growing trend of kidnappings, extortions, armed robberies, and ransom attempts targeting crypto executives, investors, and their families.
Just a few weeks ago, the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, CEO of crypto exchange Paymium, were targeted in a kidnapping attempt in Paris. The incident took place in broad daylight when attackers tried to force the family into a parked vehicle. However, Noizat’s daughter managed to fight off the assailants.
The post American tourist drugged and robbed: $123,000 in crypto stolen in London appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 04:48:09Banking giants JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are in talks to develop a unified stablecoin solution.
According to the Wall Street Journal on May 22, some of the largest financial institutions in the United States are exploring the possibility of joining forces to launch a stablecoin.
Subsidiaries of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have initiated preliminary discussions for a joint stablecoin issuance, according to sources close to the matter cited by the WSJ. Also at the negotiating table are Early Warning Services, the parent company of the digital payments network Zelle, and the payment network Clearing House.
The talks are reportedly still in the early stages, and any final decision could change depending on regulatory developments and market demand for stablecoins.
Stablecoin regulation
On May 20, the US Senate voted 66 to 32 to advance discussion of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), a specific law to regulate stablecoins. The bill outlines a regulatory framework for stablecoin collateralization and mandates compliance with anti-money laundering rules.
David Sacks, White House crypto advisor, expressed optimism about the bill’s bipartisan approval. However, senior Democratic Party officials intend to amend the bill to include a clause preventing former President Donald Trump and other US officials from profiting from stablecoins.
Demand for stablecoins has increased, with total market capitalization rising to $245 billion from $205 billion at the beginning of the year, a 20% increase.
The post Major US banks consider launching a joint stablecoin appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:41Marty's Bent
via me
It seems like every other day there's another company announced that is going public with the intent of competing with Strategy by leveraging capital markets to create financial instruments to acquire Bitcoin in a way that is accretive for shareholders. This is certainly a very interesting trend, very bullish for bitcoin in the short-term, and undoubtedly making it so bitcoin is top of mind in the mainstream. I won't pretend to know whether or not these strategies will ultimately be successful or fail in the short, medium or long term. However, one thing I do know is that the themes that interest me, both here at TFTC and in my role as Managing Partner at Ten31, are companies that are building good businesses that are efficient, have product-market-fit, generate revenues and profits and roll those profits into bitcoin.
While it seems pretty clear that Strategy has tapped into an arbitrage that exists in capital markets, it's not really that exciting. From a business perspective, it's actually pretty straightforward and simple; find where potential arbitrage opportunities exists between pools of capital looking for exposure to spot bitcoin or bitcoin's volatility but can't buy the actual asset, and provide them with products that give them access to exposure while simultaneously creating a cult-like retail following. Rinse and repeat. To the extent that this strategy is repeatable is yet to be seen. I imagine it can expand pretty rapidly. Particularly if we have a speculative fervor around companies that do this. But in the long run, I think the signal is falling back to first principles, looking for businesses that are actually providing goods and services to the broader economy - not focused on the hyper-financialized part of the economy - to provide value and create efficiencies that enable higher margins and profitability.
With this in mind, I think it's important to highlight the combined leverage that entrepreneurs have by utilizing bitcoin treasuries and AI tools that are emerging and becoming more advanced by the week. As I said in the tweet above, there's never been a better time to start a business that finds product-market fit and cash flows quickly with a team of two to three people. If you've been reading this rag over the last few weeks, you know that I've been experimenting with these AI tools and using them to make our business processes more efficient here at TFTC. I've also been using them at Ten31 to do deep research and analysis.
It has become abundantly clear to me that any founder or entrepreneur that is not utilizing the AI tools that are emerging is going to get left behind. As it stands today, all anyone has to do to get an idea from a thought in your head to the prototype stage to a minimum viable product is to hop into something like Claude or ChatGPT, have a brief conversation with an AI model that can do deep research about a particular niche that you want to provide a good service to and begin building.
Later this week, I will launch an app called Opportunity Cost in the Chrome and Firefox stores. It took me a few hours of work over the span of a week to ideate and iterate on the concept to the point where I had a working prototype that I handed off to a developer who is solving the last mile problem I have as an "idea guy" of getting the product to market. Only six months ago, accomplishing something like this would have been impossible for me. I've never written a line of code that's actually worked outside of the modded MySpace page I made back in middle school. I've always had a lot of ideas but have never been able to effectively communicate them to developers who can actually build them. With a combination of ChatGPT-03 and Replit, I was able to build an actual product that works. I'm using it in my browser today. It's pretty insane.
There are thousands of people coming to the same realization at the same time right now and going out there and building niche products very cheaply, with small teams, they are getting to market very quickly, and are amassing five figures, six figures, sometimes seven figures of MRR with extremely high profit margins. What most of these entrepreneurs have not really caught on to yet is that they should be cycling a portion - in my opinion, a large portion - of those profits into bitcoin. The combination of building a company utilizing these AI tools, getting it to market, getting revenue and profits, and turning those profits into bitcoin cannot be understated. You're going to begin seeing teams of one to ten people building businesses worth billions of dollars and they're going to need to store the value they create, any money that cannot be debased.
Grant Gilliam, one of the co-founders of Ten31, wrote about this in early 2024, bitcoin being the fourth lever of equity value growth for companies.
[
Bitcoin Treasury - The Fourth Lever to Equity Value Growth
Most companies do not hold enough bitcoin There is a saying you often hear in bitcoin circles that “you can never have enough bitcoin.” This is typically expressed by those who have spent the time to both understand bitcoin’s unique and superior monetary properties and also to appreciate why tho
Ten31 - Investors in bitcoin infrastructure and freedom techGrant Gilliam
](https://ten31.vc/insights/treasury?ref=tftc.io)
We already see this theme playing out at Ten31 with some of our portfolio companies, most notably Strike, which recently released some of their financials, highlighting the fact that they're extremely profitable with high margins and a relatively small team (~75). This is extremely impressive, especially when you consider the fact that they're a global company competing with the likes of Coinbase and Block, which have each thousands of employees.
Even those who are paying attention to the developments in the AI space and how the tools can enable entrepreneurs to build faster aren't really grasping the gravity of what's at play here. Many are simply thinking of consumer apps that can be built and distributed quickly to market, but the ways in which AI can be implemented extend far beyond the digital world. Here's a great example of a company a fellow freak is building with the mindset of keeping the team small, utilizing AI tools to automate processes and quickly push profits into bitcoin.
via Cormac
Again, this is where the exciting things are happening in my mind. People leveraging new tools to solve real problems to drive real value that ultimately produce profits for entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurs who decide to save those profits in bitcoin will find that the equity value growth of their companies accelerates exponentially as they provide more value, gain more traction, and increase their profits while also riding the bitcoin as it continues on its monetization phase. The compounded leverage of building a company that leverages AI tools and sweeps profits into bitcoin is going to be the biggest asymmetric play of the next decade. Personally, I also see it as something that's much more fulfilling than the pure play bitcoin treasury companies that are coming to market because consumers and entrepreneurs are able to recive and provide a ton of value in the real economy.
If you're looking to stay on top of the developments in the AI space and how you can apply the tools to help build your business or create a new business, I highly recommend you follow somebody like Greg Isenberg, whose Startup Ideas Podcast has been incredibly valuable for me as I attempt to get a lay of the land of how to implement AI into my businesses.
America's Two Economies
In my recent podcast with Lyn Alden, she outlined how our trade deficits create a cycle that's reshaping America's economic geography. As Alden explained, US trade deficits pump dollars into international markets, but these dollars don't disappear - they return as investments in US financial assets. This cycle gradually depletes industrial heartlands while enriching financial centers on the coasts, creating what amounts to two separate American economies.
"We're basically constantly taking economic vibrancy out of Michigan and Ohio and rural Pennsylvania where the steel mills were... and stuffing it back into financial assets in New York and Silicon Valley." - Lyn Alden
This pattern has persisted for over four decades, accelerating significantly since the early 1980s. Alden emphasized that while economists may argue there's still room before reaching a crisis point, the political consequences are already here. The growing divide between these two Americas has fueled populist sentiment as voters who feel left behind seek economic rebalancing, even if they can't articulate the exact mechanisms causing their hardship.
Check out the full podcast here for more on China's man
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:41Marty's Bent
via Kevin McKernan
There's been a lot of discussion this week about Casey Means being nominated for Surgeon General of the United States and a broader overarching conversation about the effectiveness of MAHA since the inauguration and how effective it may or may not be moving forward. Many would say that President Trump won re-election due to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan deciding to reach across the aisle and join the Trump ticket, bringing with them the MAHA Moms, who are very focused on reorienting the healthcare system in the United States with a strong focus on the childhood vaccine schedule.
I'm not going to lie, this is something I'm passionate about as well, particularly after having many conversations over the years with doctors like Kevin McKernan, Dr. Jack Kruse, Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, Dr. Brooke Miller, Dr. Peter McCullough and others about the dangers of the COVID mRNA vaccines. As it stands today, I think this is the biggest elephant in the room in the world of healthcare. If you look at the data, particularly disability claims, life insurance claims, life expectancy, miscarriage rates, fertility issues and rates of turbo cancer around the world since the COVID vaccine was introduced in 2021, it seems pretty clear that there is harm being done to many of the people who have taken them.
The risk-reward ratio of the vaccines seems to be incredibly skewed towards risk over reward and children - who have proven to be least susceptible to COVID - are expected to get three COVID shots in the first year of their life if their parents follow the vaccine schedule. For some reason or another it seems that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has shied away from this topic after becoming the head of Health and Human Services within the Trump administration. This is after a multi-year campaign during which getting the vaccines removed from the market war a core part of his platform messaging.
I'm still holding out hope that sanity will prevail. The COVID mRNA vaccines will be taken off the market in a serious conversation about the crimes against humanity that unfolded during the COVID years will take place. However, we cannot depend on that outcome. We must build with the assumption in mind that that outcome may never materialize. This leads to identifying where the incentives within the system are misconstrued. One area where I think it's pretty safe to say that the incentives are misaligned is the fact that 95% of doctors work for and answer to a corporation driven by their bottom line. Instead of listening to their patients and truly caring about the outcome of each individual, doctors forced to think about the monetary outcome of the corporation they work for first.
The most pernicious way in which these misaligned incentives emerge is the way in which the hospital systems and physicians are monetarily incentivized by big pharma companies to push the COVID vaccine and other vaccines on their patients. It is important to acknowledge that we cannot be dependent on a system designed in this way to change from within. Instead, we must build a new incentive system and market structure. And obviously, if you're reading this newsletter, you know that I believe that bitcoin will play a pivotal role in realigning incentives across every industry. Healthcare just being one of them.
Bitcoiners have identified the need to become sovereign in our monetary matters, it probably makes sense to become sovereign when it comes to our healthcare as well. This means finding doctors who operate outside the corporate controlled system and are able to offer services that align incentives with the end patient. My family utilizes a combination of CrowdHealth and a private care physician to align incentives. We've even utilized a private care physician who allowed us to pay in Bitcoin for her services for a number of years. I think this is the model. Doctors accepting hard censorship resistant money for the healthcare and advice they provide. Instead of working for a corporation looking to push pharmaceutical products on their patients so they can bolster their bottom line, work directly with patients who will pay in bitcoin, which will appreciate in value over time.
I had a lengthy discussion with Dr. Jack Kruse on the podcast earlier today discussing these topic and more. It will be released on Thursday and I highly recommend you freaks check it out once it is published. Make sure you subscribe so you don't miss it.
How the "Exorbitant Privilege" of the Dollar is Undermining Our Manufacturing Base
In my conversation with Lyn Alden, we explored America's fundamental economic contradiction. As Lyn expertly explained, maintaining the dollar's reserve currency status while attempting to reshore manufacturing presents a near-impossible challenge - what economists call Triffin's Dilemma. The world's appetite for dollars gives Americans tremendous purchasing power but simultaneously hollows out our industrial base. The overvalued dollar makes our exports less competitive, especially for lower-margin manufacturing, while our imports remain artificially strong.
"Having the reserve currency does come with a bunch of benefits, historically called an exorbitant privilege, but then it has certain costs to maintain it." - Lyn Alden
This dilemma forces America to run persistent trade deficits, as this is how dollars flow to the world. For over four decades, these deficits have accumulated, creating massive economic imbalances that can't be quickly reversed. The Trump administration's attempts to address this through tariffs showcase how difficult rebalancing has become. As Lyn warned, even if we successfully pivot toward reshoring manufacturing, we'll face difficult trade-offs: potentially giving up some reserve currency benefits to rebuild our industrial foundation. This isn't just economic theory - it's the restructuring challenge that will define America's economic future.
Check out the full podcast here for more on China's manufacturing dominance, the role of Bitcoin in monetary transitions, and energy production as the foundation for future industrial power.
Headlines of the Day
Coinbase to replace Discover in S&P 500 on May 19 - via X
Mallers promises no rehypothecation in Strike Bitcoin loans - via X
Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io
Missouri passes HB 594, eliminates Bitcoin capital gains tax - via X
The 2025 Bitcoin Policy Summit is set for June 25th—and it couldn’t come at a more important time. The Bitcoin industry is at a pivotal moment in Washington, with initiatives like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gaining rapid traction. Whether you’re a builder, advocate, academic, or policymaker—we want you at the table. Join us in DC to help define the future of freedom, money & innovation in the 21st century.
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
Final thought...
The 100+ degree days have returned to Austin, TX. Not mad about it... yet.
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@ 211c0393:e9262c4d
2025-05-25 04:00:34Original: https://www.yakihonne.com/article/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqgguqwf52cyve89xnxc4eh95jklelgw646kkkcdhxm4fp05jvtzdqq2hj6fhtpqkuutdv4xxxazjv9t92atedev45mcwusz
Nihon no kakuseizai Nihon no kakusei-zai bijinesu no yami: Keisatsu, bōryokudan, soshite
chinmoku no kyōhan kankei' no shinsō** 1. Bōryokudan no shihai kōzō (kōteki dēta ni motodzuku) yunyū izon no riyū: Kokunai seizō wa kon'nan (Heisei 6-nen
kakusei-zai genryō kisei-hō' de kisei kyōka)→ myanmā Chūgoku kara no mitsuyu ga shuryū (Kokuren yakubutsu hanzai jimushoWorld Drug Report 2023'). Bōryokudan no rieki-ritsu: 1 Kg-atari shiire kakaku 30 man-en → kouri kakaku 500 man ~ 1000 man-en (Keisatsuchō
yakubutsu jōsei hōkoku-sho' 2022-nen). 2. Keisatsu to bōryokudan nokyōsei kankei' taiho tōkei no fushizen-sa: Zen yakubutsu taiho-sha no 70-pāsento ga tanjun shoji (kōsei Rōdōshō
yakubutsu ran'yō jōkyō' 2023-nen). Mitsuyu soshiki no tekihatsu wa zentai no 5-pāsento-miman (tōkyōchikentokusōbu dēta). Media no kenshō: NHK supesharukakusei-zai sensō'(2021-nen) de shiteki sa reta
mattan yūzā yūsen sōsa' no jittai. 3. Mujun suru genjitsu juyō no fukashi-sei: G 7 de saikō no kakusei-zai kakaku (1 g-atari 3 ~ 7 man-en, Ō kome no 3-bai)→ bōryokudan no bōri (Zaimushōsoshiki hanzai shikin ryūdō chōsa'). Shiyōsha-ritsu wa hikui (jinkō no 0. 2%, Kokuren chōsa) ga, taiho-sha no kahansū o shimeru mujun. 4.
Mitsuyu soshiki taisaku' no genkai kokusai-tekina shippai rei: Mekishiko (karuteru tekihatsu-go mo ichiba kakudai), Ōshū (gōsei yakubutsu no man'en)→ daitai soshiki ga sokuza ni taitō (Eiekonomisuto' 2023-nen 6 tsuki-gō). Nippon'nochiri-teki hande: Kaijō mitsuyu no tekihatsu-ritsu wa 10-pāsento-miman (Kaijōhoanchō hōkoku). 5. Kaiketsusaku no saikō (jijitsu ni motodzuku teian) ADHD chiryō-yaku no gōhō-ka: Amerika seishin'igakukai
ADHD kanja no 60-pāsento ga jiko chiryō de ihō yakubutsu shiyō'(2019-nen kenkyū). Nihonde wa ritarin aderōru kinshi → bōryokudan no ichiba dokusen. Rōdō kankyō kaikaku: Karō-shi rain koe no rōdō-sha 20-pāsento (Kōrōshōrōdō jikan chōsa' 2023-nen)→ kakusei-zai juyō no ichiin. 6. Kokuhatsu no risuku to jōhō-gen tokumei-sei no jūyō-sei: Kako no bōryokudan hōfuku jirei (2018-nen, kokuhatsu kisha e no kyōhaku jiken Mainichishinbun hōdō). Kōteki dēta nomi in'yō: Rei:
Keisatsuchō tōkei'Kokuren hōkoku-sho' nado daisansha kenshō kanōna jōhō. Ketsuron: Henkaku no tame ni wa
jijitsu' no kajika ga hitsuyō `yakubutsu = kojin no dōtokuteki mondai' to iu gensō ga, bōryokudan to fuhai kanryō o ri shite iru. Kokusai dēta to kokunai tōkei no mujun o tsuku koto de, shisutemu no giman o abakeru. Anzen'na kyōyū no tame ni: Kojin tokutei o sake, tokumei purattofōmu (tōa-jō fōramu-tō) de giron. Kōteki kikan no dēta o chokusetsu rinku (rei: Keisatsuchō PDF repōto). Kono bunsho wa, kōhyō sa reta tōkei media hōdō nomi o konkyo to shi, kojin no suisoku o haijo shite imasu. Kyōi o yokeru tame, gutaitekina kojin soshiki no hinan wa itotekini sakete imasu. Show more 1,321 / 5,000 Stimulants in Japan The dark side of the Japanese stimulant drug business:The truth about the police, the yakuza, and their "silent complicity"**
- The control structure of the yakuza (based on public data)
Reasons for dependence on imports: Domestic production is difficult (tightened regulations under the Stimulant Drug Raw Materials Control Act of 1994) → Smuggling from Myanmar and China is the norm (UNODC World Drug Report 2023).
Profit margins for yakuza: Purchase price of 300,000 yen per kg → Retail price of 5 to 10 million yen (National Police Agency Drug Situation Report 2022).
- The "symbiotic relationship" between the police and the yakuza
The unnaturalness of arrest statistics: 70% of all drug arrests are for simple possession (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Drug Abuse Situation 2023). Smuggling organizations account for less than 5% of all arrests (Tokyo District Public Prosecutors Office Special Investigation Unit data). Media verification: The reality of "end-user priority investigation" pointed out in the NHK special "Stimulant War" (2021).
- Contradictory reality
Invisibility of demand: The highest stimulant drug price in the G7 (30,000 to 70,000 yen per gram, three times that of Europe and the United States) → Excessive profits by organized crime (Ministry of Finance "Survey on Organized Crime Fund Flows"). The contradiction that the user rate is low (0.2% of the population, UN survey), but accounts for the majority of arrests.
- The limits of "countermeasures against smuggling organizations"
International examples of failure: Mexico (market expands even after cartel crackdown), Europe (proliferation of synthetic drugs) → Alternative organizations immediately emerge (UK "The Economist" June 2023 issue). Japan's geographical handicap: The crackdown rate for maritime smuggling is less than 10% (Japan Coast Guard report).
- Rethinking solutions (fact-based proposals)
Legalization of ADHD medications:
American Psychiatric Association: "60% of ADHD patients self-medicate with illegal drugs" (2019 study).
Banning Ritalin and Adderall in Japan → Yakuza monopoly on the market.
Work environment reform:
20% of workers exceed the line of death from overwork (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare "Working Hours Survey" 2023) → One cause of stimulant drug demand.
- Risks of accusation and sources of information
Importance of anonymity:
Past cases of Yakuza retaliation (2018, threat against accusing journalist, reported in the Mainichi Shimbun).
Citing only public data:
Examples: Information that can be verified by a third party, such as "National Police Agency statistics" and "UN reports".
Conclusion: Visualization of "facts" is necessary for change
The illusion that "drugs = individual moral problems" benefits Yakuza and corrupt bureaucrats.
Pointing out the contradictions between international data and domestic statistics can expose the deception of the system.
For safe sharing:
Avoid identifying individuals and discuss on anonymous platforms (such as forums on Tor).
Direct links to data from public organizations (e.g. National Police Agency PDF report).
This document is based solely on published statistics and media reports, and excludes personal speculation.
To avoid threats, we have intentionally avoided blaming specific individuals or organizations. Send feedback
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@ 2b998b04:86727e47
2025-05-25 03:28:59Turning 60
Ten years ago, I turned 50 with a vague sense that something was off.
I was building things, but they didn’t feel grounded.\ I was "in tech," but tech felt like a treadmill—just faster, sleeker tools chasing the same hollow outcomes.\ I knew about Bitcoin, but I dismissed it. I thought it was just “tech for tech’s sake.”
Less than a year later, I fell down the rabbit hole.
It didn’t happen all at once. At first it was curiosity. Then dissonance. Then conviction.
Somewhere in that process, I realized Bitcoin wasn’t just financial—it was philosophical. It was moral. It was real. And it held up a mirror to a life I had built on momentum more than mission.
So I started pruning.
I left Web3.\ I pulled back from projects that ran on hype instead of honesty.\ I repented—for chasing relevance instead of righteousness.\ And I began stacking—not just sats, but new habits. New thinking. New rhythms of faith, work, and rest.
Now at 60, I’m not where I thought I’d be.
But I’m more myself than I’ve ever been.\ More convicted.\ More rooted.\ More ready.
Not to start over—but to build again, from the foundation up.
If you're in that middle place—between chapters, between convictions, between certainty and surrender—you're not alone.
🟠 I’m still here. Still building. Still listening.
Zap if this resonates, or send your story. I’d love to hear it.
[*Zap *](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)
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@ 2b998b04:86727e47
2025-05-25 03:19:19n an inflationary system, the goal is often just to keep up.
With prices always rising, most of us are stuck in a race:\ Earn more to afford more.\ Spend before your money loses value.\ Monetize everything just to stay ahead of the curve.
Work becomes reactive.\ You hustle to outrun rising costs.\ You take on projects you don’t believe in just to make next month’s bills.\ Money decays. So you move faster, invest riskier, and burn out quicker.
But what happens when the curve flips?
A deflationary economy—like the one Bitcoin makes possible—rewards stillness, reflection, and intentionality.
Time favors the saver, not the spender.\ Money gains purchasing power.\ You’re no longer punished for patience.
You don’t have to convert your energy into cash before it loses value.\ You don’t have to be always on.\ You can actually afford to wait for the right work.
And when you do work—it means more.
💡 The “bullshit jobs” David Graeber wrote about start to disappear.\ There’s no need to look busy just to justify your existence.\ There’s no reward for parasitic middle layers.\ Instead, value flows to real craft, real care, and real proof of work—philosophically and literally.
So what does a job look like in that world?
— A farmer building soil instead of chasing subsidies.\ — An engineer optimizing for simplicity instead of speed.\ — A craftsman making one perfect table instead of ten cheap ones.\ — A writer telling the truth without clickbait.\ — A builder who says no more than they say yes.
You choose work that endures—not because it pays instantly, but because it’s worth doing.
The deflationary future isn’t a fantasy.\ It’s a recalibration.
It’s not about working less.\ It’s about working better.
That’s what Bitcoin taught me.\ That’s what I’m trying to live now.
🟠 If you’re trying to align your work with these values, I’d love to connect.\ Zap this post, reply with your story, or follow along as I build—without permission, but with conviction.\ [https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t](https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t)
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:40Marty's Bent
It's been a pretty historic week for the United States as it pertains to geopolitical relations in the Middle East. President Trump and many members of his administration, including AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, traveled across the Middle East making deals with countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Syria, and others. Many are speculating that Iran may be included in some behind the scenes deal as well. This trip to the Middle East makes sense considering the fact that China is also vying for favorable relationships with those countries. The Middle East is a power player in the world, and it seems pretty clear that Donald Trump is dead set on ensuring that they choose the United States over China as the world moves towards a more multi-polar reality.
Many are calling the events of this week the Riyadh Accords. There were many deals that were struck in relation to artificial intelligence, defense, energy and direct investments in the United States. A truly prolific power play and demonstration of deal-making ability of Donald Trump, if you ask me. Though I will admit some of the numbers that were thrown out by some of the countries were a bit egregious. We shall see how everything plays out in the coming years. It will be interesting to see how China reacts to this power move by the United States.
While all this was going on, there was something happening back in the United States that many people outside of fringe corners of FinTwit are not talking about, which is the fact that the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yields are back on the rise. Yesterday, they surpassed the levels of mid-April that caused a market panic and are hovering back around levels that have not been seen since right before Donald Trump's inauguration.
I imagine that there isn't as much of an uproar right now because I'm pretty confident the media freakouts we were experiencing in mid-April were driven by the fact that many large hedge funds found themselves off sides of large levered basis trades. I wouldn't be surprised if those funds have decreased their leverage in those trades and bond yields being back to mid-April levels is not affecting those funds as much as they were last month. But the point stands, the 10-year and 30-year yields are significantly elevated with the 30-year approaching 5%. Regardless of the deals that are currently being made in the Middle East, the Treasury has a big problem on its hands. It still has to roll over many trillions worth of debt over over the next few years and doing so at these rates is going to be massively detrimental to fiscal deficits over the next decade. The interest expense on the debt is set to explode in the coming years.
On that note, data from the first quarter of 2025 has been released by the government and despite all the posturing by the Trump administration around DOGE and how tariffs are going to be beneficial for the U.S. economy, deficits are continuing to explode while the interest expense on the debt has definitively surpassed our annual defense budget.
via Charlie Bilello
via Mohamed Al-Erian
To make matters worse, as things are deteriorating on the fiscal side of things, the U.S. consumer is getting crushed by credit. The 90-plus day delinquency rates for credit card and auto loans are screaming higher right now.
via TXMC
One has to wonder how long all this can continue without some sort of liquidity crunch. Even though equities markets have recovered from their post-Liberation Day month long bear market, I would not be surprised if what we're witnessing is a dead cat bounce that can only be continued if the money printers are turned back on. Something's got to give, both on the fiscal side and in the private markets where the Common Man is getting crushed because he's been forced to take on insane amounts of debt to stay afloat after years of elevated levels of inflation. Add on the fact that AI has reached a state of maturity that will enable companies to replace their current meat suit workers with an army of cheap, efficient and fast digital workers and it isn't hard to see that some sort of employment crisis could be on the horizon as well.
Now is not the time to get complacent. While I do believe that the deals that are currently being made in the Middle East are probably in the best interest of the United States as the world, again, moves toward a more multi-polar reality, we are facing problems that one cannot simply wish away. They will need to be confronted. And as we've seen throughout the 21st century, the problems are usually met head-on with a money printer.
I take no pleasure in saying this because it is a bit uncouth to be gleeful to benefit from the strife of others, but it is pretty clear to me that all signs are pointing to bitcoin benefiting massively from everything that is going on. The shift towards a more multi-polar world, the runaway debt situation here in the United States, the increasing deficits, the AI job replacements and the consumer credit crisis that is currently unfolding, All will need to be "solved" by turning on the money printers to levels they've never been pushed to before.
Weird times we're living in.
China's Manufacturing Dominance: Why It Matters for the U.S.
In my recent conversation with Lyn Alden, she highlighted how China has rapidly ascended the manufacturing value chain. As Lyn pointed out, China transformed from making "sneakers and plastic trinkets" to becoming the world's largest auto exporter in just four years. This dramatic shift represents more than economic success—it's a strategic power play. China now dominates solar panel production with greater market control than OPEC has over oil and maintains near-monopoly control of rare earth elements crucial for modern technology.
"China makes like 10 times more steel than the United States does... which is relevant in ship making. It's relevant in all sorts of stuff." - Lyn Alden
Perhaps most concerning, as Lyn emphasized, is China's financial leverage. They hold substantial U.S. assets that could be strategically sold to disrupt U.S. treasury market functioning. This combination of manufacturing dominance, resource control, and financial leverage gives China significant negotiating power in any trade disputes, making our attempts to reshoring manufacturing all the more challenging.
Check out the full podcast here for more on Triffin's dilemma, Bitcoin's role in monetary transition, and the energy requirements for rebuilding America's industrial base.
Headlines of the Day
Financial Times Under Fire Over MicroStrategy Bitcoin Coverage - via X
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@ 34ff86e0:dbb6b9fb
2025-05-25 02:36:39test openletter redirection after creation
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:40Let's dive into the most interesting forward-looking predictions from my recent conversations with industry experts.
Court Cases Against Bitcoin Developers Will Set Critical Precedent for the Industry's Future - Zack Shapiro
The outcome of the Samurai Wallet case will determine whether software developers can be held legally responsible for how users employ their non-custodial Bitcoin tools. Zack Shapiro laid out the stakes clearly: "The precedent that the Bank Secrecy Act can be applied to just software that allows you to move your own money on the Bitcoin blockchain is incredibly dangerous for developers, for node runners, for miners... Basically everyone in the Bitcoin space is at risk here."
According to Shapiro, the government's position in this case fundamentally misunderstands Bitcoin's architecture: "The government says that the defendants transmitted, Keone and Bill transmitted money that they knew belonged to criminals. That's not how a coin join works. The people who transmitted the money are the people that used Whirlpool and the people that used Ricochet. They signed their keys."
Should this prosecution succeed in establishing precedent, Shapiro predicts catastrophic consequences: "If that becomes the law of the land... then basically no actor in the Bitcoin economy is safe. The government's theory is that if you facilitate movement of money, you're a money transmitter, that would reach node runners, wallet developers, miners, lightning routing nodes... whatever tool stack you use, the people who built that are at risk."
With the case continuing despite FinCEN's own position that Samurai's software isn't money transmission, Shapiro believes the resolution will likely come through political rather than legal channels in the next 6-12 months.
Malpractice Around COVID mRNA Vaccines Will Be Exposed Within 2 Years - Dr. Jack Kruse
Dr. Jack Kruse predicts that major revelations about mRNA vaccine damage will force an eventual removal from the market, particularly from childhood vaccination schedules. During our conversation, Dr. Kruse shared alarming statistics: "25,000 kids a month are getting popped with this vaccine. Just so you know, since Trump has been elected, three million doses have been given to children."
According to Dr. Kruse, the scale of this problem dwarfs other health concerns: "The messenger job can drop you like Damar Hamlin, can end your career like JJ Watt, can end your career like all the footballers who've dropped dead on a soccer field." What makes this particularly concerning is the suppression of evidence about the damages, with Dr. Kruse noting that data from Japan showing changes in cancer distribution patterns was pulled, and VAERS data being dismissed despite showing alarming signals.
Dr. Kruse believes the coming years will see an unavoidable reckoning: "If by the end of this year, everybody in unison realized that MRA platform is bad news and it's gone. That to me is... I would tell you the biggest win is to get rid of the MRA platform even before any of the Bitcoin stuff." This suggests he expects significant momentum toward removing these vaccines from circulation by the end of 2025.
Global Economic Reordering Will Create Demand for Neutral Reserve Assets Like Bitcoin and Gold - Lyn Alden
The next two years will be critical in determining whether the United States maintains dollar dominance while navigating Triffin's dilemma. During our conversation, Lyn highlighted how the current administration is attempting to thread a needle between reshoring manufacturing while maintaining the dollar's reserve status - an almost impossible task on extremely fragile ground.
"When they talk about kind of a currency accord to weaken the dollar, they mentioned ideally they wanted to use multi-lateral approaches, but there are some unilateral approaches that they can do, which includes printing dollars to buy reserve assets," Lyn explained when discussing Treasury advisor Stephen Myron's position paper.
As the world potentially moves to a multipolar currency system, Lyn predicts significant demand increases for neutral reserve assets. "The two options on the table at this point are gold and Bitcoin," she noted, but pointed out that "our geopolitical adversaries have been stacking gold for a while and with a special intensity for the last three years." This creates a strategic opportunity for the US, as Bitcoin is "overwhelmingly held in the United States."
Lyn believes this transition is already underway, with the demand for neutral reserve assets like Bitcoin growing as countries seek alternatives to solely dollar-denominated reserves.
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Iran's Shadow Mining Economy: 2 GW of Bitcoin Mined Underground While Legal Operations Struggle
Iran hosts a thriving underground Bitcoin mining industry that has emerged as a critical financial lifeline for citizens grappling with international sanctions and domestic economic controls. This shadow economy dwarfs the legal sector, with an estimated 2 gigawatts of illegal mining operations compared to just 5 megawatts of sanctioned activity.
According to ViraMiner CEO Masih Alavi, approximately 800,000 illegal miners have been discovered and fined by authorities. Yet operations continue in homes, office buildings, and even jewelry stores, where Iranians tap into unmetered electricity to mine Bitcoin, later converting it to stablecoins like USDT for savings and commerce.
While the government has approved permits for about 400 megawatts of legal mining capacity, punitive electricity tariffs and regulatory barriers have strangled legitimate operations. "I blamed the government for this situation," says Alavi. "They introduced flawed policies in the beginning, especially by setting the wrong electricity tariffs for the mining industry."
Despite using obsolete equipment like Antminer S9s and M3s, underground miners remain profitable when converting earnings to Iranian rials, creating an ecosystem that serves an estimated 18 million Iranian cryptocurrency holders.
Looking ahead, Alavi predicts further crackdowns as Iran enters peak electricity demand season, potentially reducing legal mining to zero while underground operations continue to evolve sophisticated detection evasion techniques.
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@ 47c860d3:b3f71b74
2025-05-25 01:56:39ไขความลับรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8: ศาสตร์แห่งการบีบอัดข้อมูลสื่อสารดิจิทัล คืนหนึ่ง ผมนั่งอยู่หน้าจอคอมพิวเตอร์ มองสัญญาณ FT8 กระพริบไปมา ส่งข้อความสั้นๆ ซ้ำไปซ้ำมา "CQ HS1IWX OK03" แล้วก็รอให้ใครสักคนตอบกลับ วนลูปไปอย่างไม่รู้จบ จนเกิดคำถามขึ้นมาในหัว... “นี่เรานั่งทำอะไรกันแน่?” FT8 มันควรเป็นอะไรมากกว่านี้ใช่ไหม? ไม่ใช่แค่การส่งคำสั้นๆ 13 ตัวอักษรไปมาเท่านั้น! เอ๊ะ! เดี๋ยวก่อน... 13 ตัวอักษร? ถ้าการส่งข้อความจำกัดที่ 13 ตัวอักษร แล้วทำไมข้อความอย่าง "CQ HS1IWX OK03" ซึ่งดูเหมือนจะมี 14 ตัวอักษร (รวมช่องว่าง) ถึงสามารถส่งได้? นี่มันต้องมีอะไรซ่อนอยู่! ระบบ FT8 ใช้เวทมนตร์อะไร หรือมันมีเทคนิคการเข้ารหัสแบบลับๆ ที่เรายังไม่รู้? และคำว่า "13 ตัวอักษร" ที่เขาพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึงอะไรกันแน่? แล้วลองนึกดูสิ... ถ้าเราอยู่ในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉิน ต้องส่งข้อความที่สั้น กระชับ และมีความหมาย ในขณะที่แบตเตอรี่เหลือน้อย กำลังส่งต่ำ และอุปกรณ์มีเพียงเครื่องวิทยุขนาดเล็กกับสายอากาศชั่วคราวและมือถือ บางครั้ง FT8 อาจจะเป็นตัวเลือกเดียวที่ช่วยให้เราส่งสัญญาณขอความช่วยเหลือได้ เพราะมันสามารถถอดรหัสได้แม้สัญญาณอ่อนจนแทบจะมองไม่เห็น! ดังนั้น ผมต้องขุดลึกลงไป เพื่อไขความลับของรหัส 13 ตัวอักษรของ FT8 และหาคำตอบว่า ทำไม FT8 สามารถส่งข้อความบางอย่างที่ดูเหมือนยาวเกินขีดจำกัดได้? พร้อมกับสำรวจว่ามันสามารถช่วยเหลือเราในสถานการณ์ฉุกเฉินได้อย่างไร! อะไรคือความหมายที่แท้จริงของ 13 ตัวอักษร ? เมื่อเริ่มเจาะลึกลงไป ผมจึงได้รู้ว่า 13 ตัวอักษรที่เราพูดถึงนั้นหมายถึง ข้อความใน Free Text Mode หรือก็คือ ข้อความที่ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสในรูปแบบมาตรฐานของ FT8 หากเราส่งข้อความแบบอิสระ เช่น "HELLO WORLD!" หรือ "EMERGENCY CALL" เราจะถูกจำกัดแค่ 13 ตัวอักษรเท่านั้น เพราะข้อความเหล่านี้ไม่ได้ถูกเข้ารหัสให้เหมาะสมกับโปรโตคอลของระบบ FT8 แต่ถ้าเป็น ข้อความมาตรฐานที่ถูกกำหนดรูปแบบไว้แล้ว เช่น Callsign + Grid หรือ รายงาน SNR (-10, 599, RR73) ระบบ FT8 จะใช้การเข้ารหัส 77-bit Structured Message ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถส่งข้อมูลได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร! อะไรคือ โครงสร้าง 77-bit Message ใน FT8 FT8 ใช้ 77 บิต สำหรับการเข้ารหัสข้อมูล โดยแบ่งออกเป็น 3 ส่วนหลัก: ส่วนของข้อมูล จำนวนบิต รายละเอียด Callsign 1 (ต้นทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีที่ส่ง Callsign 2 (ปลายทาง) 28 บิต รหัสสถานีปลายทาง หรือ CQ Exchange Data 21 บิต Grid Locator หรือข้อมูลอื่น ๆ รวมทั้งหมด = 28 + 28 + 21 = 77 บิต การที่ FT8 ใช้โครงสร้างแบบนี้ ข้อความที่ถูกเข้ารหัสในมาตรฐาน FT8 จึงสามารถส่งได้มากกว่า 13 ตัวอักษร เช่น "CQ HS1IWX OK03" นั้นถูกเข้ารหัสให้อยู่ใน 77 บิต ไม่ใช่ Free Text แบบปกติ ทำให้สามารถส่งได้โดยไม่มีปัญหา! แต่ข้อสำคัญมันคือโปโตคอลของระบบ FT8 ในปัจจุบัน ถ้าเราต้องการ เข้ารหัสเองในรูปแบบของเราเราก็ต้องพัฒนาโปรแกรม FT8 ของเราเอง (ผมทำไม่เป็นครับ555) ก็ใช้ของเขาไปก็ได้ แล้วก็มาพัฒนาระบบ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร กันน่าจะสนุกกว่า ส่วนเรื่องรายละเอียดวิธีการเข้ารหัสผมคงไม่พูดถึงนะ เดี๋ยวจะวิชาการน่าเบื่อไปครับ ใครสนใจก็ไปศึกษาต่อกันเอาเองครับ การเข้ารหัสนี้จะใช้ร่วมกับเทคนิค FEC (Forward Error Correction) ใน FT8 ซึ่งเป็นหนึ่งในเทคนิคที่ทำให้ FT8 สามารถถอดรหัสข้อความได้แม้ในสภาวะสัญญาณอ่อน คือการใช้ Forward Error Correction (FEC) หรือ การแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดล่วงหน้า ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อมูลที่อาจเกิดการสูญหายในระหว่างการส่งสัญญาณได้ โดย FT8 ใช้ Reed-Solomon (RS) Error Correction Code ซึ่งเป็นอัลกอริธึมที่เพิ่มบิตสำรองเพื่อช่วยตรวจจับและแก้ไขข้อผิดพลาดในข้อความที่ส่งไป และ ใช้ Convolutional Encoding และ Viterbi Decoding ซึ่งช่วยให้สามารถแก้ไขข้อมูลที่ผิดพลาดจากสัญญาณรบกวนได้ ซึ่งเมื่อสัญญาณอ่อน ข้อมูลบางส่วนอาจสูญหาย แต่ FEC ช่วยให้สามารถกู้คืนข้อความได้แม้ข้อมูลบางส่วนจะขาดหาย ทำให้ผลลัพธ์คือ FT8 สามารถทำงานได้แม้ระดับสัญญาณต่ำถึง -20 dB! ซึ่งส่วนนี้ผมก็ยังไม่เข้าใจมันดีเท่าไหร่ครับ อิอิ ฟังเขามาอีกที สิ่งที่เราทำได้ตอนนี้ในโปรแกรม FT8 ในปัจจุบันก็คือ เทคนิคการส่งข้อมูลให้มีประสิทธิภาพภายใน 13 ตัวอักษรถ้าเรา อยากส่งข้อความฉุกเฉินภายใน 13 ตัวอักษร ให้ได้ข้อมูลมากที่สุด เราต้องใช้เทคนิคต่อไปนี้: การใช้ตัวย่อและรหัสสากล • SOS 1234 BKK แทน "ขอความช่วยเหลือที่พิกัด 1234 ใกล้กรุงเทพ" • WX BKK T35C แทน "สภาพอากาศกรุงเทพ 35 องศา" • ALRT TSUNAMI แทน "เตือนภัยสึนามิ" ใช้ข้อความที่อ่านเข้าใจง่าย • ใช้โค้ดสั้นๆ เช่น "QRZ EMRG?" แทน "ใครรับสัญญาณฉุกเฉิน?" การส่งข้อความเป็นชุด • เฟรม 1: MSG1 BKK STORM1 • เฟรม 2: MSG2 BKK STORM2 • เฟรม 3: MSG3 BKK NOW “การฝึกฝนเพื่อทำความเข้าใจการสื่อสารเป็นสิ่งสำคัญ เพราะเมื่อได้รับข้อความเหล่านี้ เราจะสามารถถอดรหัสและติดตามข้อมูลได้อย่างทันท่วงที” ครั้งนี้อาจเป็นเพียงการค้นพบอีกด้านหนึ่งของ FT8… หรือมันอาจเปลี่ยนมุมมองของคุณที่มีต่อโหมดสื่อสารดิจิทัลไปตลอดกาลก็ได้ แต่เดี๋ยวก่อน—นี่มันอะไรกัน!? จู่ๆ บนจอคอมพิวเตอร์ของผมก็ปรากฏคอลซายที่ไม่คุ้นตา D1IFU—คอลซายที่ไม่มีอยู่ในฐานข้อมูลของ ITU แต่กลับปรากฏขึ้นบนคลื่นความถี่ของเรา D1…? มันมาได้ยังไง? แล้วทันใดนั้น ผมก็ฉุกคิดขึ้นมา—มันคือคอลซายจากพื้นที่ Donetsk หรือ Luhansk พื้นที่ที่เต็มไปด้วยความขัดแย้ง ดินแดนที่เราคิดว่าเงียบงันภายใต้เสียงระเบิดและความไม่แน่นอน แต่ตอนนี้ กลับมีสัญญาณเล็กๆ ปรากฏขึ้นบน FT8 มันคือใครกัน? เป็นทหาร? เป็นพลเรือนที่พยายามติดต่อโลกภายนอก? หรือเป็นเพียงนักวิทยุสมัครเล่นที่ยังคงเฝ้าฟังแม้โลกจะเต็มไปด้วยความวุ่นวาย? แต่สิ่งหนึ่งที่แน่ชัด… “นี่คือสัญญาณแห่งชีวิต” จบข่าว. 🚀📡
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:39Marty's Bent
Here's a great presentation from our good friend Michael Goldstein, President of the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute titled Hodl for Good. He gave it earlier this year at the BitBlockBoom Conference, and I think it's something everyone reading this should take 25 minutes to watch. Especially if you find yourself wondering whether or not it's a good idea to spend bitcoin at any given point in time. Michael gives an incredible Austrian Economics 101 lesson on the importance of lowering one's time preference and fully understanding the importance of hodling bitcoin. For the uninitiated, it may seem that the hodl meme is nothing more than a call to hoard bitcoins in hopes of getting rich eventually. However, as Michael points out, there's layers to the hodl meme and the good that hodling can bring individuals and the economy overall.
The first thing one needs to do to better understand the hodl meme is to completely flip the framing that is typically thrust on bitcoiners who encourage others to hodl. Instead of ceding that hodling is a greedy or selfish action, remind people that hodling, or better known as saving, is the foundation of capital formation, from which all productive and efficient economic activity stems. Number go up technology is great and it really matters. It matters because it enables anybody leveraging that technology to accumulate capital that can then be allocated toward productive endeavors that bring value to the individual who creates them and the individual who buys them.
When one internalizes this, it enables them to turn to personal praxis and focus on minimizing present consumption while thinking of ways to maximize long-term value creation. Live below your means, stack sats, and use the time that you're buying to think about things that you want in the future. By lowering your time preference and saving in a harder money you will have the luxury of demanding higher quality goods in the future. Another way of saying this is that you will be able to reshape production by voting with your sats. Initially when you hold them off the market by saving them - signaling that the market doesn't have goods worthy of your sats - and ultimately by redeploying them into the market when you find higher quality goods that meet the standards desire.
The first part of this equation is extremely important because it sends a signal to producers that they need to increase the quality of their work. As more and more individuals decide to use bitcoin as their savings technology, the signal gets stronger. And over many cycles we should begin to see low quality cheap goods exit the market in favor of higher quality goods that provide more value and lasts longer and, therefore, make it easier for an individual to depart with their hard-earned and hard-saved sats. This is only but one aspect that Michael tries to imbue throughout his presentation.
The other is the ability to buy yourself leisure time when you lower your time preference and save more than you spend. When your savings hit a critical tipping point that gives you the luxury to sit back and experience true leisure, which Michael explains is not idleness, but the contemplative space to study, create art, refine taste, and to find what "better goods" actually are. Those who can experience true leisure while reaping the benefits of saving in a hard asset that is increasing in purchasing power significantly over the long term are those who build truly great things. Things that outlast those who build them. Great art, great monuments, great institutions were all built by men who were afforded the time to experience leisure. Partly because they were leveraging hard money as their savings and the place they stored the profits reaped from their entrepreneurial endeavors.
If you squint and look into the future a couple of decades, it isn't hard to see a reality like this manifesting. As more people begin to save in Bitcoin, the forces of supply and demand will continue to come into play. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, there are around 8 billion people on this planet, and as more of those 8 billion individuals decide that bitcoin is the best savings vehicle, the price of bitcoin will rise.
When the price of bitcoin rises, it makes all other goods cheaper in bitcoin terms and, again, expands the entrepreneurial opportunity. The best part about this feedback loop is that even non-holders of bitcoin benefit through higher real wages and faster tech diffusion. The individuals and business owners who decide to hodl bitcoin will bring these benefits to the world whether you decide to use bitcoin or not.
This is why it is virtuous to hodl bitcoin. The potential for good things to manifest throughout the world increases when more individuals decide to hodl bitcoin. And as Michael very eloquently points out, this does not mean that people will not spend their bitcoin. It simply means that they have standards for the things that they will spend their bitcoin on. And those standards are higher than most who are fully engrossed in the high velocity trash economy have today.
In my opinion, one of those higher causes worthy of a sats donation is the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute. Consider donating so they can preserve and disseminate vital information about bitcoin and its foundations.
The Shell Game: How Health Narratives May Distract from Vaccine Risks
In our recent podcast, Dr. Jack Kruse presented a concerning theory about public health messaging. He argues that figures like Casey and Calley Means are promoting food and exercise narratives as a deliberate distraction from urgent vaccine issues. While no one disputes healthy eating matters, Dr. Kruse insists that focusing on "Froot Loops and Red Dye" diverts attention from what he sees as immediate dangers of mRNA vaccines, particularly for children.
"It's gonna take you 50 years to die from processed food. But the messenger jab can drop you like Damar Hamlin." - Dr Jack Kruse
Dr. Kruse emphasized that approximately 25,000 children per day are still receiving COVID vaccines despite concerns, with 3 million doses administered since Trump's election. This "shell game," as he describes it, allows vaccines to remain on childhood schedules while public attention fixates on less immediate health threats. As host, I believe this pattern deserves our heightened scrutiny given the potential stakes for our children's wellbeing.
Check out the full podcast here for more on Big Pharma's alleged bioweapons program, the "Time Bank Account" concept, and how Bitcoin principles apply to health sovereignty.
Headlines of the Day
Aussie Judge: Bitcoin is Money, Possibly CGT-Exempt - via X
JPMorgan to Let Clients Buy Bitcoin Without Direct Custody - via X
Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io
Mubadala Acquires $408.5M Stake in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF - via X
Take the First Step Off the Exchange
Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.
Take control. Start with Bitkey.
Use the promo code *“TFTC20”* during checkout for 20% off
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
Final thought...
I've been walking from my house around Town Lake in Austin in the mornings and taking calls on the walk. Big fan of a walking call.
Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/
Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:
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[ ก็ยังอุดมไปด้วยแสงอินฟราเรดในช่วงคลื่นที่ไมโทคอนเดรียชอบ แถมยังไม่มีรังสี UV ที่แรงจัดมารบกวนเหมือนตอนเที่ยง เรียกว่าเป็นแดดแบบละมุนๆ สำหรับคนที่อยาก “บำบัดใจ” แบบไม่ต้องร้อนจนหัวเปียก
เฮียเคยลองตากแดดเย็นเดินไปในสวนสาธารณะ แล้วรู้สึกว่ามันเหมือนได้รีเซ็ตจิตใจหลังวันเหนื่อยๆ ไปในตัว ยิ่งพอรู้ว่าในช่วงเวลานี้แสงที่ได้กำลังช่วยปลุกพลังงานในร่างกายแบบเงียบๆ ด้วยแล้ว มันทำให้เฮียยิ่งเคารพธรรมชาติมากขึ้นไปอีก เคยเห็นคนที่วันๆมีแต่ความเครียด ความโกรธ ความอาฆาตต่อโลกไหมหละ บางคนแค่โดนแดด แต่ไม่ได้ตากแดด การตากแดดคือปล่อยใจไปกับธรรมชาติ พูดคุยกับร่างกาย บอกเขาว่าเราจะทำตัวให้เป็นประโยชน์กับโลกใบนี้ ให้สมกับที่ใช้พลังงานของโลก
จะเช้าหรือเย็น สำคัญไม่เท่ากับความตั้งใจ เฮียว่าไม่ว่าชีวิตจะตื่นตอนไหน ถ้าเราให้เวลาแค่ 10–15 นาทีในแต่ละวัน ออกไปยืนให้แดดแตะหน้า แตะแขน หรือแค่ให้แสงลอดผ่านตาเบาๆ โดยไม่ต้องจ้องจ้าๆ ก็พอ แค่นี้ก็เป็นการให้ไมโทคอนเดรียได้หายใจ ได้ออกกำลังกายแบบของมัน และได้ส่งพลังกลับมาหาเราทั้งร่างกายและจิตใจ
สุดท้ายแล้ว แดดไม่ได้แบ่งชนชั้น ไม่เลือกว่าจะรักเฉพาะคนตื่นเช้า หรือโกรธคนตื่นสาย ขอแค่เรารู้จักเวลาและวิธีอยู่กับมันอย่างถูกจังหวะ แดดก็พร้อมจะให้เสมอ
#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr #SundaySpecialเราจะไปเป็นหมูแดดเดียว
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:39Marty's Bent
via me
Don't sleep on what's happening in Japan right now. We've been covering the country and the fact that they've lost control of their yield curve since late last year. After many years of making it a top priority from a monetary policy perspective, last year the Bank of Japan decided to give up on yield curve control in an attempt to reel inflation. This has sent yields for the 30-year and 40-year Japanese government bonds to levels not seen since the early 2000s in the case of the 30-year and levels never before seen for the 40-year, which was launched in 2007. With a debt to GDP ratio that has surpassed 250% and a population that is aging out with an insufficient amount of births to replace the aging workforce, it's hard to see how Japan can get out of this conundrum without some sort of economic collapse.
This puts the United States in a tough position considering the fact that Japan is one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds with more than $1.20 trillion in exposure. If things get too out of control in Japan and the yield curve continues to drift higher and inflation continues to creep higher Japan can find itself in a situation where it's a forced seller of US Treasuries as they attempt to strengthen the yen. Another aspect to consider is the fact that investors may see the higher yields on Japanese government bonds and decide to purchase them instead of US Treasuries. This is something to keep an eye on in the weeks to come. Particularly if higher rates drive a higher cost of capital, which leads to even more inflation. As producers are forced to increase their prices to ensure that they can manage their debt repayments.
It's never a good sign when the Japanese Prime Minister is coming out to proclaim that his country's financial situation is worse than Greece's, which has been a laughing stock of Europe for the better part of three decades. Japan is a very proud nation, and the fact that its Prime Minister made a statement like this should not be underappreciated.
As we noted last week, the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds are drifting higher as well. Earlier today, the 30-year bond yield surpassed 5%, which has been a psychological level that many have been pointed to as a critical tipping point. When you take a step back and look around the world it seems pretty clear that bond markets are sending a very strong signal. And that signal is that something is not well in the back end of the financial system.
This is even made clear when you look at the private sector, particularly at consumer debt. In late March, we warned of the growing trend of buy now, pay later schemes drifting down market as major credit card companies released charge-off data which showed charge-off rates reaching levels not seen since the 2008 great financial crisis. At the time, we could only surmise that Klarna was experiencing similar charge-off rates on the bigger-ticket items they financed and started doing deals with companies like DoorDash to finance burrito deliveries in an attempt to move down market to finance smaller ticket items with a higher potential of getting paid back. It seems like that inclination was correct as Klarna released data earlier today showing more losses on their book as consumers find it extremely hard to pay back their debts.
via NewsWire
This news hit the markets on the same day as the average rate of the 30-year mortgage in the United States rose to 7.04%. I'm not sure if you've checked lately, but real estate prices are still relatively elevated outside of a few big cities who expanded supply significantly during the COVID era as people flooded out of blue states towards red states. It's hard to imagine that many people can afford a house based off of sticker price alone, but with a 7% 30-year mortgage rate it's becoming clear that the ability of the Common Man to buy a house is simply becoming impossible.
via Lance Lambert
The mortgage rate data is not the only thing you need to look at to understand that it's becoming impossible for the Common Man of working age to buy a house. New data has recently been released that highlights That the median home buyer in 2007 was born in 1968, and the median home buyer in 2024 was born in 1968. Truly wild when you think of it. As our friend Darth Powell cheekily highlights below, we find ourselves in a situation where boomers are simply trading houses and the younger generations are becoming indentured slaves. Forever destined to rent because of the complete inability to afford to buy a house.
via Darth Powell
via Yahoo Finance
Meanwhile, Bitcoin re-approached all-time highs late this evening and looks primed for another breakout to the upside. This makes sense if you're paying attention. The high-velocity trash economy running on an obscene amount of debt in both the public and private sectors seems to be breaking at the seams. All the alarm bells are signaling that another big print is coming. And if you hope to preserve your purchasing power or, ideally, increase it as the big print approaches, the only thing that makes sense is to funnel your money into the hardest asset in the world, which is Bitcoin.
via Bitbo
Buckle up, freaks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride. Stay humble, Stack Sats.
Trump's Middle East Peace Strategy: Redefining U.S. Foreign Policy
In his recent Middle East tour, President Trump signaled what our guest Dr. Anas Alhajji calls "a major change in US policy." Trump explicitly rejected the nation-building strategies of his predecessors, contrasting the devastation in Afghanistan and Iraq with the prosperity of countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE. This marks a profound shift from both Republican and Democratic foreign policy orthodoxy. As Alhajji noted, Trump's willingness to meet with Syrian President Assad follows a historical pattern where former adversaries eventually become diplomatic partners.
"This is really one of the most important shifts in US foreign policy to say, look, sorry, we destroyed those countries because we tried to rebuild them and it was a big mistake." - Dr. Anas Alhajji
The administration's new approach emphasizes negotiation over intervention. Rather than military solutions, Trump is engaging with groups previously considered off-limits, including the Houthis, Hamas, and Iran. This pragmatic stance prioritizes economic cooperation and regional stability over ideological confrontation. The focus on trade deals and investment rather than regime change represents a fundamental reimagining of America's role in the Middle East.
Check out the full podcast here for more on the Iran nuclear situation, energy market predictions, and why AI development could create power grid challenges.
Headlines of the Day
Bitcoin Soars to $106K While Bonds Lose 40% Since 2020 - via X
US Senate Advances Stablecoin Bill As America Embraces Bitcoin - via X
Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io
Texas House Debates Bill For State-Run Bitcoin Reserve - via X
Take the First Step Off the Exchange
Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.
Take control. Start with Bitkey.
Use the promo code *“TFTC20”* during checkout for 20% off
_Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158
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@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:39Marty's Bent
If you do one thing today, take the time to spend an hour to watch this YouTube video. As someone creating content who has become very cognizant of the effects of the algorithm and the pressures to cater to it, this video was unexpectedly and incredibly satisfying. We're coming up on the eight year anniversary of this newsletter and the podcast that accompanies it and over that eight year period, the pressures to compete in the world of ever increasing digital soy slop grow at an accelerating rate.
If you've seen our YouTube channel recently, you'll probably notice that we've bent the knee to the thumbnail and title clickbait game in an attempt to get our content out to a wider audience. This is something I've held out on for many years now at this point, but recently became convinced that it's something we simply have to do if we want to get our message out to a wider audience. As I write this, I'm thinking that maybe the fact that we have to do that in the first place says something about the content we're putting out there and whether or not it is actually valuable. But I do think the high velocity trash economy becoming completely saturated with digital soy slop has made it so people who truly want to get their message out have to play that game.
I want to make one thing clear. I certainly do not think I'm an artist, but I do like to think that over the last eight years we've been putting out information via content mediums that is valuable to you, dear reader. However, the informational content we put out there, particularly the audio and video content, is put on platforms where it is forced to compete with others who cater to the lowest common denominators of dopamine hijacking and in-group signaling that draws the masses like moths to a flame.
If you haven't watched the YouTube video yet, which I'm assuming 99.9% of you haven't, this may seem like a nonsensical ramble. So, I'll keep this one short and urge you to go watch the social commentary from comedian Jarrett Moore about the state of art, "content" and its effect on culture as it stands today. I'm assuming this isn't too much of a spoiler alert, but the situation is pretty dire. The world needs better art and people who are willing to support artists who are truly creative and take risks. This has nothing to do with bitcoin. But I think it highlights an interesting part of our society that is deteriorating at a rapid clip. And it's something that all of us should feel compelled to attend to lest we speed run into Idiocracy.
It made me feel uneasy about parts of my approach to this business, and that's a good thing.
Don't forget to buy a Bitkey!
Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Create a "Never-Ending Crisis"
In our latest discussion, energy expert Dr. Anas Alhajji described what he called Iran's "never-ending crisis" – a thesis he first published over 20 years ago that has proven remarkably accurate. As Alhajji explained, this crisis persists because of a fundamental contradiction: the U.S. sees any Iranian nuclear program (even peaceful) as strengthening a hostile regime, while Iran views nuclear energy as essential for domestic stability and economic survival.
"Iran is not going to negotiate over the bomb. They want to drag everything for the longest period until they get the bomb." - Dr. Anas Alhajji
What's particularly concerning is Iran's resilience against sanctions. Alhajji detailed how Iran has masterfully circumvented oil export restrictions through China, using a dedicated Chinese bank to process payments outside the international system. Iran's leadership appears willing to endure temporary geopolitical losses in Syria, Lebanon, and potentially Yemen, calculating that obtaining nuclear weapons will fundamentally transform regional politics and their treatment by the United States.
Check out the full podcast here for more on Trump's Middle East strategy, the future of BRICS, and critical challenges facing global energy infrastructure.
Headlines of the Day
Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin Will Reach $500K by 2028 - via X
Lummis: Genius Act Makes US Leader in Digital Asset Policy - via X
Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io
Jake Tapper's Admission on Biden's Decline Sparks Media Ethics Debate - via X
Take the First Step Off the Exchange
Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.
Take control. Start with Bitkey.
Use the promo code *“TFTC20”* during checkout for 20% off
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
Final thought...
My oldest is already at the "faking sick to get out of school" stage and I'm extremely proud.
Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/
Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-24 23:02:05Da li ste znali da se već danas u Srbiji možete kompletno obući i svoj dom u potpunosti opremiti tehnikom i za sve to platiti Bitkoinom? Sve ovo je moguće zahvaljujući kompaniji Bitrefill!
Bitrefill je vodeća platforma koja omogućava kupovinu poklon-kartica putem Bitkoina i drugih kriptovaluta.
Od poklon-kartica koje je moguće kupiti na Bitrefillu, u Srbiji je najpopularnija, najraznovrsnija i najpraktičnija za korišćenje digitalna Giftoncard Multibrand poklon-kartica koju je moguće koristiti u više desetina šoping centara širom Srbije! Moguće je iskoristiti u više od 150 naznačenih brendova i radnji raznovrsnog tipa i zato kao takva predstavlja pravi spoj zabave, mode, sporta, tehnike... Od najpoznatijih prodavnica izdvajaju se Gigatron, Tehnomanija, Tehnomedija, Puma, Adidas, Sport Vision, Univerexport...
GiftOnCard poklon kartica je savršen način da ispoštujete ukus baš svakoga i rešite problem promašenog poklona!
Neki od tržnih centara u kojima se mogu koristiti poklon-kartice: Delta City, TC Ušće, Ada Mall, Galerija Beograd, TC Stadion, Merkator Centar Beograd/Novi Sad, Roda Mega Shopping Centar, Big Kruševac, Big Nova Pazova, Aviv Park Zvezdara, Stop Shop Borča, Forum Park, Big Shopping Centar Novi Sad, TC Promenada Novi Sad, TC Forum Niš, Delta Planet Niš, Capitol Park Šabac...
Giftoncard Multibrand poklon-karticu je na Bitrefillu moguće kupiti kako on-chain Bitkoinom, tako i putem Bitkoin Lightning mreže. U ponudi su kartice sa sredstvima u iznosu od 3000 i 6000 dinara.
Pored Multibrand kartice, na sajtu Bitrefill su dostupne i poklon-kartice Tehnomanije i Sport Visiona, s tim što je Sport Vision karticu moguće iskoristiti i onlajn na njihovom sajtu (ovo važi i za Multibrand karticu).
Kako do Giftoncard Multibrand poklon-kartice?
Proces plaćanja Bitkoin (Lightning-om) je veoma jednostavan.
- Izaberite vašu poklon-karticu zajedno sa željenom vrednošću.
- Popunite potrebna polja da biste nastavili sa plaćanjem.
- Izaberite željenu kriptovalutu i pošaljite odgovarajući iznos na dostavljenu adresu ili skenirajte QR kod putem vašeg mobilnog novčanika.
- Kada plaćanje bude izvršeno, digitalna poklon-kartica će vam biti dostavljena za nekoliko trenutaka, a takođe ćete dobiti i kopiju putem imejla.
Kako iskoristiti poklon-karticu?
- Možete iskoristiti poklon-karticu za plaćanje proizvoda i usluga na više od 300 lokacija širom Srbije sve do visine sredstava koja se nalaze na kartici.
- Niste u obavezi da iskoristite ceo iznos sa kartice odjednom; kartica se može koristiti više puta za više proizvoda i usluga sve dok ne potrošite čitav iznos.
- Možete proveravati stanje na kartici i sve transakcije registracijom na sajtu giftoncard.eu.
- Moguće je iskoristiti više poklon-kartica za jednu kupovinu.
- Kartica se ne može koristiti za povlačenje gotovine
- Kartica ne može biti poništena ili ponovo dopunjena.
Obradujte svoje najmilije i sebe poklonima, proizvodima i uslugama kupljenim za Bitkoin!
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@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8
2025-05-24 22:05:00🧠Quote(s) of the week:
'The Cantillon Effect: When new money is printed, those closest to the source (banks, elites) benefit first, buying assets before prices rise. Others lose purchasing power as inflation hits later. If people find out how this works, they will riot.' -Bitcoin for Freedom
Just think about it. Your employer gives you a 5% raise. The Fed (central banks in general) prints 7% more dollars/euros/Fiat. You just got a 2% pay cut. This isn't a conspiracy theory. This is how fiat money steals from the working class every single day. This is why I support Bitcoin.
Anilsaidso: 'Saving in fiat currency is no longer an option. A 2% inflation rate means you lose 1/3 of your purchasing power over 20yrs. At 5% inflation, you lose 60%. And at 10% you've burnt 85%. Reduce your uncertainty. Save in Bitcoin.' https://i.ibb.co/N661BdVp/Gr-Rwdg-OXc-AAWPVE.jpg
🧡Bitcoin news🧡
“Education increases conviction.
Conviction increases allocation.
Allocation increases freedom.” —Gigi
https://i.ibb.co/Q3trHk8Y/Gr-Arv-Ioa-AAAF5b0.jpg
On the 12th of May:
➡️Google searches for "Digital Gold" are at all-time highs. Bitcoin Croesus: "This is the second wave of the Digital Revolution - the digitization of value to complement the Internet's digitization of information. It wasn't possible to own a slice of the Internet itself, but it is possible with Bitcoin, the internet of value." "...It feels like you're late to Bitcoin. But this is a bigger game playing out than most realize, and we are much earlier than casual observers know. If you're reading this, you're here on the frontier early. And you have a chance to stake a claim before 99% of the world shows up. This is a land grab. This is the digital gold rush. Make your descendants proud."
https://i.ibb.co/5XXbNQ8S/Gqw-X4-QRWs-AEd5-Uh-1.jpg
➡️ 'A new holding company ‘Nakamoto’ just raised $710 million to buy more Bitcoin and will merge with KindlyMD to establish a Bitcoin Treasury company. Saylor playbook!' - Bitcoin Archive
➡️American Bitcoin, backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, will go public via an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. Post-merger, Trump affiliates and Hut 8 will retain 98% ownership. GRYP tripled to $2.19, Hut 8 jumped 11% to $15.45. The deal closes in Q3 2025.
➡️Phoenix Wallet: 'Phoenix 0.6.0 is out: offers can now have a custom description simple close (set an exact mutual close tx fee rate) native support for Linux arm64 This is the server version. Phoenix mobile release is around the corner. '
On the 13th of May:
➡️Corporate Bitcoin purchases have now outweighed the supply of new Bitcoin by 3.3x in 2025. https://i.ibb.co/fVdgQhyY/Gq1ck-XRXUAAsg-Ym.jpg
➡️ Publicly listed Next Technology disclosed buying 5,000 Bitcoin for $180m, now HODLs 5,833 $BTC worth +$600m.
➡️ After rejecting the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed Bill SB 1373, which proposed a digital asset reserve fund. "Current volatility in the cryptocurrency markets does not make a prudent fit for general fund dollars."
➡️Meanwhile in Paris, France the kidnapping of a woman with her 2-year-old child morning on the streets of Paris - the target is allegedly the daughter of a crypto CEO. 3 masked men tried forcing them into a fake delivery van, before being fought off by her partner and bystanders. One of whom grabbed a dropped gun and aimed it back.
➡️ 'Bitcoin illiquid supply hit a new all-time high of $1.4B Are you HODLing too, anon?' - Bitcoin News
➡️Why Coinbase entering the S&P 500 matters. Boomers will have Bitcoin / CrApTo exposure, whether they like it or not. Anyway, remember what happened in 2021. The COIN IPO, and they’re still trading about 35% below their IPO-day high. Oh and please read the 'Coinbase" hack below haha.
➡️ Nasdaq listed GD Culture Group to sell up to $300 million shares to buy Bitcoin.
➡️ A Bitcoin wallet untouched since April 2014 just moved 300 BTC worth $31M for the first time in 11 years. This is how you HODL.
➡️ Bitcoin's realized price is steadily increasing, mirroring behaviors seen in past bull markets, according to CryptoQuant.
➡️ Bitcoin whales and sharks (10-10K BTC) accumulated 83,105 BTC in the last 30 days, while small retail holders (<0.1 BTC) sold 387 BTC, according to Santiment.
Bitcoin Whales have been AGGRESSIVELY accumulating BTC recently! With at least 240,000+ Bitcoin transferred to wallets with at least 100 BTC. The largest market participants are trying to buy as much as possible, what do they think comes next...
➡️'The average cost of mining 1 BTC for miners is currently $36.8K. The spread between the current market price and the cost of one coin = 182%. This is essentially the average profitability. This corresponds to the beginning of the bull cycle in November 2022 and the peaks of this cycle >$100K. A price increase above this level will allow miners to fully recover after the last halving and reach excess profits comparable to the beginning of the bull rally in January 2023.' -Axel Adler Jr.
➡️ Remember last week's segment on Coinbase..."Coinbase just disclosed in their Q1 filing: that they have custody of 2.68 million Bitcoin. That’s over 13% of all Bitcoin in circulation, on one platform. Is this the greatest honeypot in financial history? Yes, it is...read next week's Weekly Bitcoin update."
Well, here you go.
Coinbase estimates $180-$400 million in losses, remediation costs, and reimbursement following today’s cyber attack. https://i.ibb.co/jkysLtZ1/Gq-C7zl-W4-AAJ0-N6.jpg
Coinbase didn't get hacked. Coinbase employees sold customer data on the black market. Coinbase failed to protect customer data. This is why KYC is useless. The criminals have our driver's license scans. They have AI tools that can generate fake images and videos. KYC puts our identities at risk, makes onboarding more difficult, and rewards criminals. To make it even worse. Coinbase knew about the hack as early as January but only disclosed it publicly after being added to the S&P 500.
I will say it one more time! Don't buy your Bitcoin on KYC exchanges. KYC means handing over your identity to be leaked, sold, or extorted.
It was 2 days ago, see the bit on the 13th of May, that we saw a violent attack in Paris. Minimize the data you share with centralized tools. Store as much as you can locally. Always ask yourself what data am I giving and to whom? Remove the need for trust.
And for the love of God, Allah, or whatever god you are praying to...
DON'T LEAVE YOUR COINS ON A FREAKING EXCHANGE!!!!
Clear!
➡️ Sam Callahan: Bitcoin CAGRs over rolling four-year holding periods since 2012:
10th percentile: 33%
25th percentile: 50% 40th percentile: 75%
Said differently, for 90% of the time, Bitcoin’s four-year CAGR was higher than 33%. For comparison, here are the single best four-year CAGRs over the same period for:
Gold: 17%
Silver: 20%
S&P 500: 24%
Apple: 52%
Two lessons here:
1.) Even when Bitcoin underperforms, it still outperforms.
2.) Bitcoin holding goals are best measured in halving cycles.'
https://i.ibb.co/9m6q2118/Gq1-Ie2-Ob-AAIJ8-Kf.jpg
➡️ Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has bought 96,870 Strategy₿ stocks for 30 Million dollars at an Average Price Of $310 Per Share In Q1 2025, Their Total Holdings Is 518,000 Shares Worth Over 214 Million Dollars.
➡️Senator Lummis urges the U.S. Treasury to eliminate taxes on unrealized gains for Bitcoin.
On the 14th of May:
➡️At $168,000, Bitcoin will surpass Microsoft, the world's largest company.
➡️Fidelity tells institutions to buy Bitcoin if they can’t match Bitcoin’s 65% return on capital.
➡️Michigan has adopted House Resolution 100, declaring May 13 2025 as "Digital Asset Awareness Day." The resolution encourages "activities and programs that foster a deeper understanding of digital assets and their impact on our society and economy."
➡️Publicly traded Vinanz raises funding to buy $2 million in #Bitcoin assets.
➡️Bitcoin News: "Investor Jim Chanos is shorting MicroStrategy while going long on Bitcoin, calling the stock overvalued relative to its BTC holdings. “We’re selling MicroStrategy and buying Bitcoin, basically buying something for $1 and selling it for $2.50," he told CNBC
On the 15th of May:
➡️The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund disclosed owning $511 million in Bitcoin through BlackRock’s ETF.
➡️UK public company Coinsilium Group raises £1.25 million to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.
➡️Chinese Textile company Addentax issues stock to buy 8,000 Bitcoin.
➡️14 US states have reported $632m in $MSTR exposure for Q1, in public retirement and treasury funds. A collective increase of $302m in one quarter. The average increase in holding size was 44%.
➡️Chinese public company DDC Enterprise to adopt a Bitcoin Reserve with 5,000 BTC.
On the 16th of May:
➡️Brazilian listed company Méliuz buys $28.4 million Bitcoin to become the nation's first Bitcoin Treasury Company. Shareholders voted to approve the strategy by an "overwhelming majority".
➡️13F Filings show Texas Retirement System owns MSTR. The day MSTR enters the S&P 500, every pension fund will follow.
➡️'Wealthy Investors Shift Up to 5% into Bitcoin as confidence in fiat falters. UBS, a Swiss banking giant says Bitcoin and digital assets are becoming key hedges against inflation and systemic risk, marking a dramatic shift in modern portfolio strategy.' -CarlBMenger
➡️River: "Above all, Bitcoin is money for the people." https://i.ibb.co/Jj8MVQwr/Gr-Ew-EPp-XAAA1-TVN.jpg
On the 17th of May:
➡️Illicit activity is now down to 0.14% of transaction volume across all crypto.
Context: World Bank, IMF suggests 1.5–4% of global GDP is laundered yearly through traditional banking Of that 0.14%:
63% of illicit trade was stablecoins.
13% was Bitcoin (declining each year)
Source: The 2025 Crypto Crime Report, Chainalysis 2025
Yet another confirmation that Bitcoin's use in facilitating illicit activities is a rounding error on a rounding error.
On the 18th of May:
➡️JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said they will allow clients to buy Bitcoin. The repeal of SAB 121 is a bigger deal than most realize. “I will fire any employee buying or trading Bitcoin for being stupid” - Jamie Dimon (2017) https://i.ibb.co/b5tnkb15/Gr-Vxxc-OXk-AA7cyo.jpg
On the 19th of May.
➡️Bookmark the following stuff from Daniel Batten if you want to combat climate change (fanatics)...
'That Bitcoin mining is not only not harmful, but beneficial to the environment is now supported by:
7 independent reports
20 peer-reviewed papers
As a result * 90% of climate-focused magazines * 87.5% of media coverage on Bitcoin & the environment is now positive * source 7 independent reports https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922666207754281449… * 20 peer-reviewed papers https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1923014527651615182… * 10 climate-focused magazines https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1919518338092323260… * 16 mainstream media articles https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922628399551434755
➡️Saifedean Ammous: '5 years ago at the height of corona hysteria, everyone worried about their savings.
If you put $10,000 in "risk-free" long-term US government bonds, you'd have $6,000 today.
If you put the $10,000 in "risky speculative tulip" bitcoin, you'd have $106,000.
HFSP, bondcucks!'
I love how Saifedean always put it so eloquently. haha
➡️An Australian judge rules Bitcoin is “just another form of money.” This could make it exempt from capital gains tax. Potentially opening the door to millions in refunds across the country. - AFR
If upheld, the decision could trigger up to $1B in refunds and overturn the Australian Tax Office’s crypto tax approach.
➡️Publicly traded Vinanz buys 16.9 Bitcoin for $1.75 Million for their treasury.
➡️Bitcoin just recorded its highest weekly close ever, while the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit its highest level in history.
➡️4 in 5 Americans want the U.S. to convert part of its gold reserves to Bitcoin. - The Nakamoto Project
"or background, the survey question was: "Assuming the United States was thinking of converting some of their gold reserves into Bitcoin, what percentage would you advise they convert?" Respondents were provided a slider used to choose between 0% and 100%. Our survey consisted of a national sample of 3,345 respondents recruited in partnership with Qualtrics, a survey and data collection company"
Context: https://x.com/thetrocro/status/1924552097565180107 https://i.ibb.co/fGDw06MC/Gr-VYDIdb-AAI7-Kxd.jpg
➡️Michael Saylor's STRATEGY bought another $764.9m Bitcoin. They now HODL 576,230 Bitcoin, acquired for $40.18 billion at $69,726 per Bitcoin.
➡️The German Government sold 49,858 BTC for $2.89B, at an average price of $57,900. If they had held it, their BTC would now be worth $5.24B.
➡️A record 63% of all the Bitcoin that exist have not transacted or moved from their wallets this year. - Wicked
https://i.ibb.co/j9nvbvmP/Gq3-Z-x6-Xw-AAv-Bhg.jpg
💸Traditional Finance / Macro:
On the 12th of May:
👉🏽The S&P 500 has closed more than 20% above its April low, technically beginning a new bull market. We are now up +1,000 points in one month.
On the 13th of May:
👉🏽 Nvidia announces a partnership with Humain to build "AI factories of the future" in Saudi Arabia. Just one hour ago, Saudi Arabia signed an economic agreement with President Trump to invest $600 billion in the US.
🏦Banks:
👉🏽 No news
🌎Macro/Geopolitics:
On the 12th of May:
👉🏽Huge pressure is on the European Union to reach a trade deal. Equities and commodities bounce hard on news of China-US trade deal. "We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%." - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
Dollar and Yuan strong bounce. Gold corrects.
👉🏽After reaching a high of 71% this year, recession odds are now back down to 40%. The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 fall to a new low of 40% following the US-China trade deal announcement.
👉🏽'Truly incredible:
- Trump raises tariffs: Yields rise because inflation is back
- Trump cuts tariffs: Yields rise because growth is back
- Trump does nothing: Yields rise because the Fed won't cut rates Today, the bond market becomes Trump and Bessent's top priority.' - TKL
President Trump’s biggest problem persists even as trade deals are announced. Tariffs have been paused for 90 days, the US-China trade deal has been announced, and inflation data is down. Yet, the 10Y yield is nearing 4.50% again. Trump needs lower rates, but rates won’t fall.
👉🏽Last week a lot of talk on Japan’s Debt Death Spiral: Japan’s 40-year yield is detonating and the myth of consequence-free debt just died with it. One of the best explanations, you can read here:
👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Eye-opening chart. Can a country with a services-based economy remain a superpower? Building back US manufacturing base makes a lot of strategic and geopolitical sense.' https://i.ibb.co/Q3zJY9Fc/Gqxc6-Pt-WQAI73c.jpg
On the 13th of May:
👉🏽There is a possibility of a “big, beautiful” economic rebalancing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says at an investment forum in Saudi Arabia. The “dream scenario” would be if China and the US can work together on rebalancing, he adds
Luke Gromen: It does roll off the tongue a whole lot nicer than "We want to significantly devalue USD v. CNY, via a gold reference point."
Ergo: The price of gold specifically would rise in USD much more than it would in CNY, while prices for other goods and services would not, or would do so to a lesser degree.
👉🏽 Dutch inflation rises to 4.1 percent in April | CBS – final figure. Unchanged compared to the estimate.
👉🏽Philipp Heimberger: This interesting new paper argues that cuts to taxes on top incomes disproportionately benefit the financial sector. The finance industry gains more from top-income tax cuts than other industries. "Cuts in top income tax rates increase the (relative) size of the financial sector"
Kinda obvious, innit?
👉🏽US CPI data released. Overall good results and cooler than expected month-over-month and year-over-year (outside of yearly core). U.S. inflation is down to 2.3%, lower than expected.
On the 14th of May:
👉🏽'The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go down.
A 2-percentage-point decrease in interest rates would save ~$568 billion in annual interest payments. However, this means government finances would worsen by more than DOUBLE the amount saved in interest due to a recession. An economic downturn would be incredibly costly for the US government.' -TKL
On the 15th of May:
👉🏽'In the Eurozone and the UK, households hold more than 30% of their financial assets in fiat currencies and bank deposits. This means that they (unknowingly?) allow inflation to destroy their purchasing power. The risks of inflation eating up your wealth increase in a debt-driven economic system characterized by fiscal dominance, where interest rates are structurally low and inflation levels and risks are high. There is so much forced and often failed regulation to increase financial literacy, but this part is never explained. Why is that, you think?' - Jeroen Blokland https://i.ibb.co/zWRpNqhz/Gq-jn-Bn-X0-AAmplm.png
On the 16th of May:
👉🏽'For the first time in a year, Japan's economy shrank by -0.7% in Q1 2025. This is more than double the decline expected by economists. Furthermore, this data does NOT include the reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2nd. Japan's economy is heading for a recession.' -TKL
👉🏽'246 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years. This is up from 206 recorded last year and more than DOUBLE during the same period in 2022. In April alone, the US saw 59 bankruptcy filings as tariffs ramped up. So far this year, the industrials sector has seen 41 bankruptcies, followed by 31 in consumer discretionary, and 17 in healthcare. According to S&P Global, consumer discretionary companies have been hit the hardest due to market volatility, tariffs, and inflation uncertainty. We expect a surge in bankruptcies in 2025.' -TKL
👉🏽'Moody's just downgraded the United States' credit rating for the FIRST time in history. The reason: An unsustainable path for US federal debt and its resulting interest burden. Moody's notes that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 134% by 2035. Federal interest payments are set to equal ~30% of revenue by 2035, up from ~18% in 2024 and ~9% in 2021. Furthermore, deficit spending is now at World War 2 levels as a percentage of GDP. The US debt crisis is our biggest issue with the least attention.' - TKL
Still, this is a nothing burger. In August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US to AA+, and S&P (2011) the US became a split-rated AA+ country. This downgrade had almost no effect on the bond market. The last of the rating agencies, Moodys, pushed the US down to AA+ today. So technically it didn’t even change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+, now it’s unanimous AA+.
Ergo: Nothing changed. America now shares a credit rating with Austria and Finland. Hard assets don’t lie. Watch Gold and Bitcoin.
https://i.ibb.co/Q7DcWY2P/Gr-K66i-EXIAAKh-MR.jpg
RAY DALIO: Credit Agencies are UNDERSTATING sovereign credit risks because "they don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts" with devalued currency.
👉🏽US consumer credit card serious delinquencies are rising at a CRISIS pace: The share of US credit card debt that is past due at least 90 days hit 12.3% in Q1 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS. The percentage has risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis.' - Global Markets Investor
https://i.ibb.co/nNH9CxVK/Gr-E838o-XYAIk-Fyn.png
On the 18th of May:
👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Look at ten bottom of this list. Milei has not only proven that real free market reforms work, but he has also proven that they work fast. It’s bigger than Argentina now, no wonder that the left legacy media doesn’t like him so much.' https://i.ibb.co/MDnBCDSY/Gr-Npu-KKWMAAf-Pc.jpg
On the 19th of May: 👉🏽Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.” All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again. You and your mother should be scared out of your fucking minds. https://i.ibb.co/rGZ9cMtv/GTXx-S7-Cb-MAAOu-Vt.png
👉🏽 TKL: 'Investors are piling into gold funds like never before: Gold funds have posted a record $85 BILLION in net inflows year-to-date. This is more than DOUBLE the full-year record seen in 2020. At this pace, net inflows will surpass $180 billion by the end of 2025. Gold is now the best-performing major asset class, up 22% year-to-date. Since the low in October 2022, gold prices have gained 97%. Gold is the global hedge against uncertainty.'
🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift, well, in this case, two gifts:
What Bitcoin Did - IS THE FED LOSING CONTROL? With Matthew Mezinskis
'Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of the Crypto Voices podcast, and creator of Porkopolis Economics. In this episode, we discuss fractional reserve banking, why it's controversial among Bitcoiners, the historical precedent for banking practices, and whether fractional reserve banking inherently poses systemic risks. We also get into the dangers and instabilities introduced by central banking, why Bitcoin uniquely offers a pathway to financial sovereignty, the plumbing of the global financial system, breaking down money supply metrics, foreign holdings of US treasuries, and how all these elements indicate growing instability in the dollar system.'
https://youtu.be/j-XPVOl9zGc
Credit: I have used multiple sources!
My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly.
Use the code SE3997
Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀
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-
@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5
2025-05-25 15:01:38Key Takeaways
In this episode, Bitcoin Core veteran James O’Beirne delivers a sharp critique of Bitcoin’s developmental stagnation, attributing it to political dysfunction, post-fork trauma, and resistance within Bitcoin Core to critical upgrades like CheckTemplateVerify (CTV). He argues that while institutional adoption accelerates, internal innovation is being stifled by misplaced controversies—such as the OP_RETURN policy debate—and a bottlenecked governance model. O’Beirne warns that without urgent progress on scaling solutions like CTV, congestion control, and vaulting systems, Bitcoin risks ossifying and becoming vulnerable to institutional capture. Advocating a more adversarial posture, he suggests forking or building alternative clients to pressure progress but remains hopeful, seeing rising momentum for protocol upgrades from developers outside the Core elite.
Best Quotes
“Everybody has mempool derangement syndrome… it’s such a small issue in the grand scheme of challenges Bitcoin is facing.”
“Bitcoin is as much an experiment in technical human organization as it is a pure technology.”
“If we don’t figure out how to scale trustless Bitcoin self-custody, we’re toast. Right now, only about 2.5% of Americans could actually use Bitcoin monthly in a meaningful way.”
“CTV isn’t sexy—it just works. It keeps getting reinvented because it's so useful. At this point, it’s essential.”
“If Core isn’t going to evaluate these proposals, someone has to. Otherwise, we need to build the social justification for forking.”
“Lightning didn’t scale Bitcoin the way we expected. Let’s stop assuming a silver bullet is coming and start building the bridges ourselves.”
“You could onboard someone with just a phone and a vault… and give them more security than most hardware wallets.”
Conclusion
While Bitcoin gains traction with institutions and governments, its internal development is stalling under political inertia and misplaced focus. James O’Beirne urges the community to prioritize impactful upgrades like CTV and CCV, challenge the bottleneck of Bitcoin Core if needed, and recommit to Bitcoin’s foundational principles. This episode underscores the urgent need to bridge technical and social divides to ensure Bitcoin remains a decentralized, censorship-resistant tool for global value transfer.
Timestamps
0:00 - Intro
0:41 - Multi axis issue
5:12 - Core governance
9:41 - Derailing productive discussions
17:05 - Fold & Bitkey
18:32 - CTV
29:24 - Unchained
29:53 - Magnitude of change
41:45 - Covenant proposals
50:16 - CTV benefits
57:56 - Institutional ownership
1:05:26 - Moving forwardTranscript
(00:00) I think I have a somewhat different take than 99% of the people in the discussion. What freaks me out is if you've got Sailor owning half million coins or whatever and Black Rockck owning however many, people forget that Bitcoin is as much an experiment in technical human organization as it is, you know, as a sort of pure technology.
(00:17) The undernowledged reality is I'm actually interested to see if we have like a black swan adoption event from the machines. the risk given the increased scrutiny that things like the strategic Bitcoin reserve introduce there's a shot clock on getting to trustless decentralized value storage technology and I think we really have to be thinking about that combination of physically tired and mentally tired it's also tiresome James it's it's I was looking at that picture today and I was actually going to tweet it absent any caption just because it's
(00:52) a really good Uh yeah, it's a really good epitome of uh of a lot of stuff. But I'm with you, man. I'm tired. It's Friday. Who is it? Is that a just some random Japanese guy? I think it's it's I actually think it's from a documentary about I don't know if it's Africa, but Oh, yes. Yes.
(01:13) It's there's a little bit of a kind of like racy connotation there. Um yeah, the uh it's been long. It was interesting for me. We had Texas Energy Mining Summit here in Austin the beginning of the week. It sort of blended with Bitcoin plus I was over at Bitcoin++ Wednesday and yesterday doing the live desk and obviously topic of conversation is OP return this policy decision and this policy change that that core wants to make and many people are uh angry about and it's just again it's also tiresome.
(01:52) spoke with people on both sides over the two days and I I think I came away more confused than than I entered entered the week like what is the optimal path and somebody who's worked on Bitcoin core worked on Bitcoin core for for many years I've seen you tweeting about it seems like I won't put words in your mouth I'll let you say like what is your perspective on this whole policy debate around op return yeah so in general I think I have a somewhat different take than um 99% of the people in in the discussion which is basically that this
(02:25) is a really stupid discussion um everybody has mempool derangement syndrome like at every layer um and uh what what frustrates me a little bit about the conversation not not to not to uh get like um grumpy right off the bat but it's just it's it's such a small issue in the in the grand scheme of challenges that are being presented to Bitcoin that like spending all this drama on it um is is really a silly use of time and uh kind of emotion, but I can break it down for you.
(03:02) I mean, I think I think like largely the argument is happening on a few layers. Um the change itself technically I'm totally in favor of it. It makes sense. you know, basically the rationale is like, well, you know, um, people want to include exogenous data into the chain. Um, you can't really stop them from doing that.
(03:23) Um and so let's basically minimize the damage by saying hey you know we're going to make it easier for people to actually make use of op return as a data carrier which uh lets us avoid bloat in the UTXO set which is like one of the precious resources we have to take care of for the node.
(03:44) Um, so that's all good and the and the other thing too is that as we've seen with the ordinal stuff is um, you know, data is going to wait make its way into the chain and actually it hurts the whole network when um, there are transactions that most nodes haven't seen yet but they come through a block. Basically that slows down block propagation time.
(04:06) And so the whole idea is if you bring policy closer to the actual consensus rules, closer to the actual transactions that are going to come through and be mined, then you're going to have better network performance. You're going to have lower latency when it comes to actually broadcasting a new block around. So that's like the the sort of technical layer of the discussion.
(04:25) It's it's really a minute non-controversial change if you kind of have fluency with the the technical end of the mempool. Um, but I think there's this this higher layer to the conversation which is sort of a readjudication of spam in Bitcoin. And it's, you know, I think a lot of the the old animal spirits and sentiments are emerging about like, well, we don't like spam.
(04:49) And I think for a lot of people who kind of get lost in the technical details, it's very easy to latch on to the sentiment of I don't like spam. Um and so uh so that makes the sort of ocean knots camp maybe more appealing. Uh so that's yeah that's I guess a summary if you want to jump in anything in particular we can that's what I was saying I came out more confused than I went in.
(05:20) So last week on RHR, hey, I agree. You want policy to be aligned with consensus. Like whether we like it or not, these transactions are getting into blocks. They're non-standard, but they are valid within consensus rules and policy just isn't aligning with that. And like you said, this is disrupting the P2P layer and potentially the fee uh estimation process that that many nodes use, many applications use.
(05:49) And it makes sense to me to align policy with consensus. These things are happening. And if you can make it so Bitcoin full nodes are operating as efficiently and optimally as possible by changing this, it makes sense to me. I think my one like push back was like makes sense to me. However, I think how it was communicated to people and the whole mess with the PR.
(06:12) I think it's I think it's it was it's it's just a tactical error. Like even if this change gets in the the the real benefit of is is not material. You know, nobody was really clamoring for it. um this stuff always, you know, gets the hackles up of everybody who cares at all about, you know, spamming Bitcoin. So, it was a real tactical error.
(06:36) And I think that's that's one place where I mean it's kind of I had a little bit of shot in Freud seeing it because I'm fairly critical of core as a project along you know a variety of axes at this point and it was just kind of a demonstration of the the disconnection and kind of ineptitude of um publicity management kind of on on their end.
(06:58) Um, and so like there's part of me that enjoys seeing that because I I'm kind of convinced that that group has a lot less efficacy than they have credibility. And so to to see that kind of catch up was was interesting. The uh let's dive into that like what you said multiple axes you have a problem. I think we've throughout the years like we've been discussing the issues that Bitcoin like yourself particularly as a Bitcoin core developer for many years trying to get things through not only in the context of the way core works from a governance
(07:35) structure but just the way Bitcoin works as a distributed open source protocol like trying to get changes in and I will say like -
@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-24 21:16:10U ovoj sekciji pratićemo cene raznih dobara i usluga, a pre svega nekretnina, prosečne srpske plate, goriva, deviznih i zlatnih rezervi Srbije u odnosu na Bitkoin. Iz priloženih grafikona može se videti da sve vremenom gubi vrednost, odnosno postaje jeftinije u odnosu na BTC.
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@ 58537364:705b4b85
2025-05-24 20:48:43“Any society that sets intellectual development as its goal will continually progress, without end—until life is liberated from problems and suffering. All problems can ultimately be solved through wisdom itself.
The signpost pointing toward ‘wisdom’ is the ability to think—or what is called in Dhamma terms, ‘yoniso-manasikāra,’ meaning wise or analytical reflection. Thinking is the bridge that connects information and knowledge with insight and understanding. Refined or skillful thinking enables one to seek knowledge and apply it effectively.
The key types of thinking are:
- Thinking to acquire knowledge
- Thinking to apply knowledge effectively In other words, thinking to gain knowledge and thinking to use that knowledge. A person with knowledge who doesn’t know how to think cannot make that knowledge useful. On the other hand, a person who thinks without having or seeking knowledge will end up with nothing but dreamy, deluded ideas. When such dreamy ideas are expressed as opinions, they become nonsensical and meaningless—mere expressions of personal likes or dislikes.
In this light, the ‘process of developing wisdom’ begins with the desire to seek knowledge, followed by the training of thinking skills, and concludes with the ability to express well-founded opinions. (In many important cases, practice, testing, or experimentation is needed to confirm understanding.)
Thus, the thirst for knowledge and the ability to seek knowledge are the forerunners of intellectual development. In any society where people lack a love for knowledge and are not inclined to search for it, true intellectual growth will be difficult. That society will be filled with fanciful, delusional thinking and opinions based merely on personal likes and dislikes. For the development of wisdom, there must be the guiding principle that: ‘Giving opinions must go hand-in-hand with seeking knowledge. And once knowledge is gained, thinking must be refined and skillful.’”
— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto) Source: Dhamma treatise “Organizing Society According to the Ideals of the Sangha”
Note: “Pariyosāna” means the complete conclusion or the final, all-encompassing end.
“We must emphasize the pursuit of knowledge more than merely giving opinions. Opinions must be based on the most solid foundation of knowledge.
Nowadays, we face so many problems because people love to express opinions without ever seeking knowledge.”
— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto)
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2025-05-24 20:47:39This event has been deleted; your client is ignoring the delete request.
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2025-05-25 15:01:38Key Takeaways
In this episode of TFTC, energy economist Anas Alhajji outlines a profound shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump—away from military intervention and toward transactional diplomacy focused on trade, reconstruction, and curbing Chinese and Russian influence in the Middle East. He highlights Trump’s quiet outreach to Syria as emblematic of the U.S.'s strategic flexibility in legitimizing former adversaries when economically beneficial. Alhajji dismisses BRICS as a fractured bloc incapable of rivaling the U.S.-led order and insists the dollar and petrodollar remain dominant. On energy, he warns that despite favorable fundamentals, prices are suppressed by political confusion, underinvestment, and an aging power grid ill-prepared for the AI and urbanization boom. He also contends that Iran is stalling negotiations to buy time for nuclear advancement and that any deal will be superficial. Finally, Alhajji debunks the myth of Trump being pro-oil, noting his long-standing hostility toward the industry and explaining why a repeat of his past energy boom is implausible given today’s financial and structural constraints.
Best Quotes
- “BRICS is a paper tiger. Everything about BRICS is what China does—and that’s it.”
- “The dollar is here to stay. The petrodollar is here to stay. End of story.”
- “Trump hates the oil industry. He always classified it as an enemy.”
- “Energy projects are 30- to 40-year investments, but politicians think in 4-year cycles. That’s where the disconnect lies.”
- “People think shale will boom again. It won’t. The model changed from ‘drill baby drill’ to ‘control baby control.’”
- “The real story of Trump’s trip wasn’t about politics—it was investment, investment, investment.”
- “Without massive investment in the grid and gas turbines, blackouts will become the norm—even in rich countries like Kuwait.”
- “Iran and China have perfected the game of oil exports. Sanctions are just theater at this point.”
Conclusion
Anas Alhajji’s conclusion challenges conventional narratives, arguing that global power is shifting from military dominance to economic leverage, infrastructure investment, and energy control. He presents a nuanced view of U.S. foreign policy under Trump, emphasizing the strategic importance of trade and reconstruction over regime change. As energy demand soars and geopolitical risks mount, Alhajji warns that the real dangers lie not in foreign adversaries, but in policy confusion, infrastructural lag, and complacency—making this episode a crucial listen for anyone seeking to understand the high-stakes intersection of energy, economics, and diplomacy.
Timestamps
0:00 - Intro
0:48 - Syria and US diplomacy in Middle East
12:50 - Trump in the Middle East
18:12 - Fold & Bitkey
19:48 - Iran - Nuclear program and PR
33:53 - Unchained
34:22 - Crude markets, trade war and US debt
54:28 - Trump's energy stance
1:05:46 - Energy sector challanges
1:14:44 - Policy recommendations
1:21:18 - AI and bitcoinTranscript
(00:00) oil prices market fundamentals support higher price than where we are today. But because of this confusion, everyone is scared of low economic growth and that is a serious problem. The US media ignored part of Trump's speech when he said we are not about nation building and they refer to Afghanistan and Iraq.
(00:15) Look at them. This is a criticism of George W. Bush. We have groups that are talking about the demise of the dollar, the rise of bricks. Bricks is a paper tiger. Everything about bricks is what China does and that's it. The dollar is here to stay and the petro dollar is here to stay.
(00:31) The perception is that the Trump administration is cold but the reality Trump hates the oil [Music] indust. How are you? Very good. Very good. Thank you. As you were telling me, you've been a bit sleepd deprived this week trying to keep up with what's going on. Oh, absolutely. I mean, Trump keeps us on our toes uh all the time.
(01:06) In fact, I plan certain things for the weekend and Trump will say something or he will do something and all of a sudden we get busy again. Uh so clients are not going to wait for you until you finish your work. Basically, they want to know what's going on. So what is going on? What what how profound were the events in the Middle East? These are very uh very profound changes basically because it is very clear that if you look at the last 15 years uh and you look at the growth uh in the Middle East, you look at the growth of Saudi Arabia and uh the
(01:41) role of Turkey for example in the region uh it just just amazing be beyond any uh any thoughts. Uh in fact both of them Turkey and Saudi Arabia are part of the G20. Uh so they have economic influence and they have political influence. And of course the icing on the cake for those who are familiar with the region is to recognize the Syrian government and meet with the Syrian uh president.
(02:11) Uh this is a major a major change in economics and politics uh of the Middle East. Let's touch on that Syria uh topic for a while because I think a lot of people here in the United States were a bit shocked at how sort of welcoming President Trump was towards the new Syrian president considering the fact that uh he was considered an enemy not too long ago here in the United States.
(02:42) What first of all it's a fact of life for those who would like to check the history of politics. There were many people around the world who were classified or they were on the terrorism list and then they became friends of the United States or they were became heroes. I mean Nelson Mandela is one of them. You look at Latin America, there are presidents in Latin America who were uh the enemy of the United States and then they became uh uh cooperative with the United States and the United States recognized their governments and the result of their uh elections. Uh so
(03:15) we've seen this historically uh several uh several times around the world and as they say freedom fighters for some basically are the enemies and the terrorists for for others etc. So uh what we've seen that's why the the visit is very important that the recognition of this government is very important. uh the fact on the ground that uh the president of Syria had the power on the ground uh he had the the the people on the ground and he had the control on the ground and whatever he's been he's been doing since he came into power until now
(03:52) he done all the right steps u and people loved him I mean everyone who went to Syria whether the Syrians who left Syria 40 years ago or uh the visitors who are coming to Syria, they will tell you, "We have never seen the Syrian people as happy as we've seen them today, despite the fact that they they live in misery.
(04:17) They don't have um 8 million people without housing. Uh there is barely any electricity in most of the country. There is no internet. There is barely any food. The uh inflation is rampant, etc. But people are happy because they lived in fear for a very long time. And uh the steps they have taken. For example, the uh ministers in the previous government uh are still there and they are still in the housing of the government.
(04:49) They still have the drivers. They still have the cars from the previous government. They still have it until today. So uh they they were classified as enemies before. But all of a sudden now you have a new government that is uh accepting them. Uh so we we see some changes on the ground that are positive and we'll see how these things will go given that the area around them basically has been unstable for a very long time.
(05:17) how because I don't the the news when I was actually it was surreal for me because my first trip to the Middle East was last December when it was literally f flying over Syria to Abu Dhabi when uh um Assad was getting thrown out and it was pretty surreal to be in that region of the world.
(05:43) How as it pertains to like religious minorities within Syria moving forward is there protractions protections there? Um well let me just uh I want to emphasize one point that is very important. What did the interest of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States in Syria if remember Syria was controlled by Iran and was controlled by the Russians.
(06:09) So in a sense it becomes uh kind of an imperative that taking it away from Iran and Russia and not bringing Iran or Russia back is extremely important. Now the Russians are still there and they have their own base but at least they are not bombing the Syrians and not killing them anymore. But the idea here is taking Syria out of Iran and Russia and probably later on if they kick the Russians out, Russians will not have access to the Mediterranean.
(06:37) Uh so there is an interest uh of all parties basically to take Russia out of Iran and um out of uh Syria regardless the country is uh devastated and it creates massive opportunities for US companies on all levels and uh we've seen a contract uh done recently with you mentioned Abu Dhabi uh uh a contract uh uh with the UA a basically to revamp all the Syrian ports and work on the Syrian ports.
(07:13) Uh so such contracts basically uh when you have a country that has nothing and it's completely devastated the whole infrastructure is devastated. Who is going to build it? If the uh what the Chinese, the Russians, so who who are going to build it? So, uh I think there is a a big room for US companies and others basically to come in and uh literally help on one side and make money on the other.
(07:38) Yeah, I think that that's what I'm trying to discern. What was this convoy from the United States to the Middle East this week signali -
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2025-05-25 15:01:37Key Takeaways
In this episode, Bram Kanstein delivers a powerful exploration of how studying money for thousands of hours led him to a single, life-changing conclusion: Bitcoin is the key to preserving value and reclaiming personal agency in an increasingly unstable world. Through the lens of a disillusioned millennial generation—raised with technological optimism but betrayed by economic reality—Bram exposes the fiat system as one built on illusion, debt, and diminishing returns. He explains how Bitcoin’s transparent, rule-based design offers a principled alternative, especially for those wired to question systems and seek truth. Describing the fiat economy as a “high-velocity trash system” that undermines innovation and long-term planning, he argues Bitcoin creates the time and space to think, build, and live freely. As AI reshapes the labor market, Bram sees Bitcoin as a vital foundation for individuals to adapt, maintain sovereignty, and thrive in a future defined by rapid technological disruption.
Best Quotes
“Anything that you would want to fix in the world is broken because the money is broken.”
“You’re stacking nothing. Literal paper.”
“You have to red pill before you orange pill.”
“The only thing you need to do is move to the other money that they cannot mess with.”
“One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. That’s the whole point.”
“Millennials are primed to understand Bitcoin.”
“Bitcoin lets you get out of the rat race and start walking your own path.”
“The fiat mindset is a zero-sum game. In Bitcoin, value is created.”
“We should stop asking how to value Bitcoin—and start asking how to value everything else in Bitcoin.”
“Even with a master’s in economics, people still don’t understand what money is.”
Conclusion
This episode delivers a powerful call to rethink everything we assume about money, arguing that understanding Bitcoin is less about profit and more about reclaiming personal agency in a world defined by uncertainty. Bram Kanstein shows how asking fundamental questions—like “What is money?”—can lead to a deeper sense of purpose and autonomy. As AI and systemic instability accelerate, Bitcoin emerges not just as sound money, but as a life tool for intentional living, long-term thinking, and individual sovereignty.
Timestamps
0:00 - Intro
0:36 - INTJ bitcoiners
4:58 - The millennial headspace is primed for bitcoin
7:25 - Bitcoin gives time and space to build
15:29 - Fold & Bitkey
17:05 - Seeing systemic problems
26:25 - Bitcoin’s positive feedback loop
33:55 - Recognize your agency
37:58 - Unchained
38:27 - Fiat money creates uncertainty
44:41 - What is money?
54:04 - Money and energy
1:03:43 - Bitcoin allows growth
1:09:02 - Bitcoin/AI
1:31:34 - Optimistic noteTranscript
(00:00) Let's say you're a millennial and mid-30s and you want to retire in 30 years. If you calculate the amount of dollar, pound the euro, yen units. You need way more units of that money than you think right now. They are funding pension funds, but the pension funds are using that money for the people that are actually retiring.
(00:17) No one knows about money. They don't know how debt works, how finance works. But that's kind of how it's designed, right? Like that's what eventually keeps the Ponzi alive. And I just started with the question, what do you think happens if you call the bank and say like, hey, can I get 100 or 200k in cash? Man, you got an editor like in house.
(00:39) That's That's pro. That's uh it's because this setup I'm so far away from the computer. I just need somebody to hit the button. Okay. Okay. the extent the extent of of Logan's job extends far beyond just hitting the button. But yeah, INTJ I think uh I think it was as we rear into what looks to be another bull market.
(01:05) I think getting back to first principles and discussing the challenges of studying and understanding Bitcoin, it's important to to highlight the archetype of individuals who have studied fallen down the rabbit hole and really dedicated their lives to Bitcoin. And this INTJ cohort that exists within Bitcoin seems pretty material apparently. Yeah.
(01:35) I mean, I have many moments where I just realize that I'm lucky that my brain is wired in a certain way, you know. I feel like crazy blessed that I figured out this Bitcoin thing, you know, and that when I ran into certain realizations along the way in my Bitcoin journey that I was like, hm, you know, how does this actually work? you know, do I actually understand the systems I'm participating in, the things that I believe, you know, the the the the people that I abstracted um or or outsourced certain responsibilities to to take care of, for example, my money
(02:10) in the bank. You know, I I think um being wired in a certain way definitely helps in grasping Bitcoin to a degree where you're like, okay, this is the only thing I need to pay attention to, you know, in my life. And yeah, we we jokingly started talking about this because I have the hat here, but there was this um I think it was like like a Twitter poll actually or someone shared it on Twitter and this is already like two or three years old where where someone investigated these MyersBriggs um personality types and I think there's
(02:42) only like 2% of people that have INTJ but like 20% of Bitcoiners have that personality type. So it um it apparently helps. So yeah, I just I just quickly Googled it actually. It says uh the INTJ is the architect. It's a personality type with the introverted intuitive thinking and judging traits. These thoughtful tacticians love perfecting the details of life, applying creativity and rationality to everything they do.
(03:09) I think the rationality part here is what um what uh I think helps you to to gro Bitcoin eventually. Yeah, it reminds me of I forget what the study was, but postco it was a similar distribution of just like 2% of people were highly skeptical of what was going on with the lockdowns and the attack on bodily autonomy.
(03:38) And there was a study that was done about I forget it was bees or some type of fly that they they have like the horde of um the horde of the particular fly I think it was bees has like 2% act as these sort of alarm bells that are on the outside the outskirts of the community and they'll start communicating like hey something's wrong here and people the other flies or bees will be skeptical at first but then eventually uh the alarm bells will be proven to be right that there was some sort of danger around the corner. That's fascinating.
(04:09) Yeah. Yeah, that's fascinating. I I think we're not that special eventually, you know, like we think we have all this autonomy, but but um yeah, we're we're just wired in a certain way. And I think I don't know where you want to take this conversation, but I think, you know, part of growing up and being an adult is figuring out, you know, how do I actually work and how do I work with how I work, you know? Yeah. No, it is.
(04:36) And as I get older, creep into my mid-30s, which is hard hard to come to grips with, it is uh really falling back on like, all right, I I feel like I have a good perspective on the world and my place in it, and how do I just optimize to make sure I'm aligning my my work and my career, I guess, if you call it that, with what I'm passionate about. Yeah.
(05:00) Well, I also think that is actually why our generation, you know, my my podcast is Bitcoin for millennials. I think uh the millennials are primed to understand Bitcoin. You know, we are in this life phase where big things happen, you know, starting a family or settling somewhere or or making big career moves or decide Yeah.
(05:25) like deciding what am I going to spend like the next 10 20 years on and uh I think it's an interesting phase actually I I don't know how that was for you but but for me like the the 30s were really where I dove more and more into Bitcoin like got got that stronger conviction and also yeah kind of was invited to go further down that that rabbit hole you know and like how I see it now is that that Bitcoin is really the foundation for the rest of my life, you know, like it it gives me time and space to look forward and enthusiasm, you know, like I sometimes lurk on the
(06:01) millennial subreddit, you know, or the finance sub subreddit. And many people in our generation are very nihilistic, you know, they're very unsure about the future. Like some people aren't even having kids because they think they cannot afford it, you know. And uh whenever I read that, I just think like, yeah, I I don't really have those things.
(06:22) But I know it's because of Bitcoin, you know. I I know that Bitcoin gives me, yeah, like I said, the time and space to figure out what's next, like what should I focus on? Like it gives time and space to to try out stuff, to build something, you know, to to to really attempt at at doing something. Where I see many people that don't see that, they are more in the consumer type, you know, like they they just spend the money that's worth the most today, you know, like that's what they're incentivized to do. Yeah.
(06:49) And is is that why you started Bitcoin for millennials is to number one put the put the message out there. Millennials come listen to this. One of you Yes. that is trying to educate you about this. But because this is something I think about a lot is somebody's like dead smack in the middle of the millennial generation and has observed many of the things you just described in my own life, my own network.
(07:13) And that's part of the reason why this podcast exists. And um what I'm trying to do at TFTC is just try to figure out a way to reach into the minds of millennials, hopefully c -
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2025-05-24 20:36:35Suspendisse quis rutrum nisi Integer nec augue quis ex euismod blandit ut ac mi
Curabitur suscipit vulputate volutpat Donec ornare, risus non tincidunt malesuada, elit magna feugiat diam, id faucibus libero libero efficitur mauris
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2025-05-24 20:06:04In March 2020, Lucas was afraid.
The economy was grinding to a halt. Markets were in freefall. In a sweeping response, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented intervention—buying everything from Treasury bonds and mortgages to corporate debt, expanding the money supply by $4 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. government issued over $800 billion in stimulus checks to households across the country.
These extraordinary measures may have averted a wave of business failures and bank runs—but they came at a cost: currency debasement and rising inflation. Alarmed by the scale of central bank intervention and its consequences for savers, Lucas decided to act.
In a state of mild panic, he withdrew $15,000 from his bank account and bought ten gold coins. Then he took another $10,000 and bought two bitcoins. If the dollar system failed, Lucas wanted something with intrinsic value he could use.
He mentioned his plan to his friend Daniel, who laughed.
“Why don’t you stock up on guns and cigarettes while you’re at it?” Daniel quipped. “The Fed is doing what it has to—stabilizing the economy in a crisis. Sure, $4 trillion is a lot of money, but it's backed by the most productive economy on Earth. Don’t panic. The world’s not ending.”
To prove his point, Daniel put $25,000 into the S&P 500—right at the pandemic bottom.
And he was right. Literally.
By Spring 2025, the stock market was near all-time highs. The world hadn’t ended. The U.S. economy kept moving, more or less as usual. Daniel’s investment had nearly tripled—his $25,000 had grown to $65,000.
But oddly enough, Lucas’ seemingly panicked reaction had been both prudent and profitable.
His gold coins had climbed from $1,500 to $3,300 apiece—a 120% gain. Bitcoin had soared from $5,000 to $90,000, making his two coins worth $180,000. Altogether, Lucas’s $25,000 allocation had grown to $213,000—a nearly 10x return. And his goal wasn’t even profit. It was safety.
With that kind of fortune, you’d expect Lucas to feel confident, even serene. He had more than enough to preserve his purchasing power, even in the face of years of inflation.
But in the spring of 2025, Lucas felt anything but calm.
He was uneasy—gripped by a sense that the 2020 crisis hadn’t been a conclusion, but a prelude.
In his mind, 2020 was just the latest chapter in a troubling sequence: the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic shock of 2020. Each crisis had been more sudden, more sweeping, and more dependent on emergency measures than the last.
And Lucas couldn’t shake the feeling that the next act—whenever it came—would be more disruptive, more severe, and far more damaging.
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2025-05-25 15:01:37Another week of conversations with sharp minds thinking about Bitcoin's future and the broader economic landscape. Here are the three most compelling predictions from recent episodes.
Bitcoin Core Will Face a Major Governance Crisis Over Covenant Proposals in 2025 - James O'Beirne
James made a prediction that sent chills through the Bitcoin development community - he believes Bitcoin Core's current governance structure will reach a breaking point this year over covenant proposals like CTV. After working as a Core developer for nearly a decade, he's convinced that the organization's inability to make progress on scaling solutions will force alternative implementations.
His timeline is specific and urgent. James believes that if Core doesn't show "substantive review discussion about how we get this stuff in" within six months, credible developers will start building alternate activation clients. The technical argument is compelling: covenants like CheckTemplateVerify have been thoroughly reviewed for seven years, with a 5 BTC bounty (worth over $500,000) still unclaimed for finding material bugs.
The stakes couldn't be higher for Bitcoin's future. James noted that currently "just over two and a half percent of Americans would be able to, on a monthly basis, buy Bitcoin on an exchange, withdraw it to self-custody, and then maybe make a spend." Without scaling solutions, this number won't improve meaningfully. His prediction reflects growing frustration with Core's de facto monopoly over protocol development. "You simply can't ignore that there is a social reality to being in that world," he said, referring to the concentrated funding and decision-making power that has created what he sees as an unsustainable bottleneck for Bitcoin's evolution.
The U.S. Will See Widespread Energy Blackouts as AI Data Centers Strain the Grid - Anas Alhajji
Dr. Anas delivered a sobering prediction about America's energy infrastructure failing to keep pace with exploding AI demand. He expects we'll see significant blackouts in major cities within the next few years, with a particularly concerning scenario where AI facilities maintain power while residential areas go dark. "I will not be surprised if we end up with a situation like this in some states and some cities," he warned.
The mathematics behind his prediction are stark. Energy consumption is skyrocketing due to multiple factors: urbanization, AI data centers, and simple population growth. When migrants move from rural areas to U.S. cities, their energy consumption increases by 30-70 times. Meanwhile, AI facilities require massive baseload power that renewable sources simply cannot provide reliably.
The infrastructure problems run deeper than just generation capacity. Anas explained that America's electrical grid is aging and wasn't designed for this level of demand. Even worse, we lack the manufacturing capacity to produce enough natural gas turbines - the only realistic solution for reliable baseload power at scale. He predicts this will create a dangerous political dynamic where tech companies with guaranteed power contracts maintain operations during blackouts while regular citizens lose electricity. "We might see a backlash from the population, and we will see politicians basically being forced to fight them because of that."
AI Will Force Millennials Into Career Reinvention Within the Next Decade - Bram Kanstein
Bram made a stark prediction about the collision between artificial intelligence and millennial career paths. He believes that traditional knowledge-based jobs will become obsolete much faster than people expect, forcing an entire generation to completely rethink their working lives. "If you think you're going to work for the next 30 years of your life, think again," he warned during our conversation.
His argument centers on the rapid advancement of AI capabilities that he's witnessed firsthand. After spending just 12 hours working with AI tools, Bram claims he developed what could be "a top 10 cybersecurity invention" - despite having no cybersecurity background. This experience convinced him that jobs requiring strict knowledge and logic are already dead. The implications are massive for millennials who built their careers around expertise that AI can now replicate instantly.
The timing couldn't be worse, as Bram notes that this technological disruption is happening precisely when millennials need stable income to support families and prepare for retirement. His solution? Use Bitcoin to create the time and space needed to figure out how to function in an AI-dominated world. "You need to be aware of that. This is where it's going. So how do you protect yourself in an age of AI? Bitcoin is the perfect way to do that."
Blockspace conducts cutting-edge proprietary research for investors.
New Bitcoin Mining Pool Flips Industry Model: "Plebs Eat First" Could Threaten Corporate Dominance
Parasite Pool's radical zero-fee structure challenges mining giants by guaranteeing payouts to small miners while rewarding block finders with instant Bitcoin. It disrupts traditional mining with a hybrid payout model that gives block discoverers 1 BTC immediately, while distributing remaining rewards (~2.125 BTC plus fees) among all pool participants. This "plebs eat first" approach targets the 22% discount miners typically accept in exchange for guaranteed income.
Key innovations that matter:
- Lightning Network integration bypasses Bitcoin's 100-block maturity rule, delivering instant payouts to Lightning wallets
- 10-sat minimum withdrawal eliminates traditional barriers for small miners
- Block withholding protection through substantial honest-miner rewards reduces pool attacks
The pool currently commands just 5 PH/s (0.000006% of Bitcoin's network), meaning an expected 3+ years before hitting a block. But this represents a growing counterculture against Full Pay Per Share (FPPS) pools that dominate corporate mining.
Industry impact: If successful, Parasite Pool could attract commercial miners seeking downside protection while maintaining the lottery appeal that drives pleb participation. The model challenges the structural advantages of corporate mining pools.
What's next: ZK Shark plans to open-source components over time, with the current beta suggesting this is just "V1" of a broader disruption strategy.
Subscribe to them here (seriously, you should): https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com/
Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.
Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/
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2025-05-25 15:01:36Vivek Ramaswamy’s company bets on distressed bitcoin claims as its Bitcoin treasury strategy moves forward.
Strive Enterprises, an asset management firm co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, is exploring the acquisition of distressed bitcoin claims, with particular interest in around 75,000 BTC tied to the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to build a Bitcoin treasury ahead of its planned merger with Asset Entities.
According to a document filed on May 20 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Strive has partnered with 117 Castell Advisory Group to “identify and evaluate” distressed Bitcoin claims with confirmed legal judgments. Among these are approximately 75,000 BTC connected to Mt. Gox, with an estimated market value of $8 billion at current prices.
Essentially, Strive aims to acquire rights to bitcoins currently tied up in legal disputes, which can be purchased at a discount by those willing to take on the risk and wait for eventual recovery.
In a post on X, Strive’s CFO, Ben Pham, stated:
“Strive intends to use all available mechanisms, including novel financial strategies not used by other Bitcoin treasury companies, to maximize its exposure to the asset.”
The company also plans to buy cash at a discount by merging with publicly traded companies holding more cash than their stock value, using the excess funds to purchase additional Bitcoin.
Mt. Gox, the exchange that collapsed in 2014, is currently in the process of repaying creditors, with a deadline set for October 31, 2025.
In its SEC filing, Strive declared:
“This strategy is intended to allow Strive the opportunity to purchase Bitcoin exposure at a discount to market price, enhancing Bitcoin per share and supporting its goal of outperforming Bitcoin over the long run.”
At the beginning of May, Strive announced its merger plan with Asset Entities, a deal that would create the first publicly listed asset management firm focused on Bitcoin. The resulting company aims to join the growing number of firms adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy.
The corporate treasury trend
Strive’s initiative to accumulate bitcoin mirrors that of other companies like Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet. On May 19, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, announced the purchase of an additional 7,390 BTC for $764.9 million, raising its total holdings to 576,230 BTC. On the same day, Metaplanet revealed it had acquired another 1,004 BTC, increasing its total to 7,800 BTC.
The post Bitcoin in Strive’s sights: 75,000 BTC from Mt. Gox among its targets appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 15:01:35According to the ECB Executive Board member, the launch of the digital euro depends on the timing of the EU regulation.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is making progress in preparing for the digital euro. According to Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board member and coordinator of the project, the technical phase “is proceeding quickly and on schedule,” but moving to operational implementation still requires political approval of the regulation at the European level.
Speaking at the ‘Voices on the Future’ event organized by Ansa and Asvis, Cipollone outlined a possible timeline:
“If the regulation is approved at the start of 2026 — in the best-case scenario for the European legislative process — we could see the first transactions with the digital euro by mid-2028.”
Cipollone also highlighted Europe’s current dependence on electronic payment systems managed by non-European companies:
“Today in Europe, whenever we don’t use cash, any transaction online or at the supermarket has to go through credit cards, with their fees. The payment system relies on companies that aren’t based in Europe. You can see why it would make sense to have a system fully under our control.”
For the ECB board member, the digital euro would act as a direct alternative to cash in the digital world, working like “a banknote you can spend anywhere in Europe for any purpose.”
The digital euro project is part of the ECB’s broader strategy to strengthen the independence of Europe’s financial system. According to Cipollone and the Central Bank, Europe’s digital currency would be a key step toward greater autonomy in electronic payments, reducing reliance on infrastructure and services outside the European Union.
The post ECB: digital euro by mid-2028, says Cipollone appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 15:01:34A new study reveals: 4 out of 5 Americans would like the US to convert some of its gold into Bitcoin.
A recent survey conducted by the Nakamoto Project revealed that a majority of Americans support converting a portion of the United States’ gold reserves into Bitcoin. The survey, carried out online by Qualtrics between February and March 2025, involved 3,345 participants with demographic characteristics representative of US census standards. Most respondents expressed a desire to convert between 1% and 30% of the gold reserves into BTC.
Troy Cross, co-founder of the Nakamoto Project, stated:
“When given a slider and asked to advise the US government on the right proportion of Bitcoin and gold, subjects were very reluctant to put that slider on 0% Bitcoin and 100% gold. Instead, they settled around 10% Bitcoin.”
One significant finding from the research is the correlation between age and openness to Bitcoin: younger respondents showed a greater inclination toward the cryptocurrency compared to older generations.
A potential US strategy
Bo Hines, a White House advisor, is promoting an initiative for the Treasury Department to acquire Bitcoin by selling off a portion of its gold. Under the proposed plan, the government could acquire up to 1 million BTC over the next five years.
To finance these purchases, the government plans to sell Federal Reserve gold certificates. The proposal aligns with Senator Cynthia Lummis’ 2025 Bitcoin Act, which aims to declare Bitcoin a critical national strategic asset.
Currently, the United States holds 8,133 metric tons of gold, valued at over $830 billion, and about 200,000 BTC, valued at $21 billion.
The post The majority in the US wants to convert part of the gold reserves into Bitcoin appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17
2025-05-24 19:16:17Descrição da empresa
Fundada em 1961, a WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, atuando principalmente no setor de bens de capital com soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação e tintas, para diversos setores, incluindo infraestrutura, siderurgia, papel e celulose, petróleo e gás, mineração, entre muitos outros.
A WEG se destaca em inovação pelo desenvolvimento constante de soluções para atender as grandes tendências voltadas a eficiência energética, energias renováveis e mobilidade elétrica. Com operações industriais em 17 países e presença comercial em mais de 135 países, a companhia possui mais de 47.000 mil colaboradores distribuídos pelo mundo.
Em 2024, a WEG atingiu faturamento líquido de R$38,0 bilhões, destes 57,0% proveniente das vendas realizadas fora do Brasil.
Vendendo soluções para os clientes
"Na febre do ouro, muito garimpeiros corriam atrás de ouro para ficar ricos. Enquanto isso, muita gente enriqueceu vendendo pás, roupas, bebidas, cigarros e mantimentos para eles…”
Em um mundo dominado cada vez mais por Inteligência Artificial, carros elétricos e tecnologias quânticas. A Wege segue se destacando por oferecer equipamentos e parte da estrutura pode detrás para que essas tecnologias possam existir. Focada em inovação e performance. A empresa oferece soluções de ponta a ponta para os mais variados setores da indústria.
Visão geral da empresa
A Wege atua no setor de máquinas e equipamentos. Se formos fazer um refino, podemos dizer que ela atua em subsetores tais como: motores, compressores e outros.
Mercado que atua
O setor de máquinas e equipamentos no Brasil em 2024 enfrentou um cenário desafiador, com uma queda na receita líquida, mas também mostrou sinais de recuperação e algumas perspectivas positivas em segmentos específicos e no início de 2025.
A WEG é gigante no mundo todo. Os caras têm fábricas e filiais em mais de 40 países, espalhados por todos os continentes. A estratégia dos caras é expandir sempre, comprando outras empresas e investindo pesado em mercados-chave. A empresa foca em: Expansão, inovação e sustentabilidade.
Mercado
Grana Alta: Em 2024, o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos valeu uns US$ 205,67 bilhões. Já a parte de motores elétricos, chegou a uns US$ 152,2 bilhões. A parada é que a automação industrial, que é a cara do futuro, estava em uns US$ 192,02 bilhões em 2024. É muita grana rolando!
As empresas estão investindo cada vez mais em IA (Inteligência artificial), IOT (internet das coisas, robótica e fabricação sustentável.
Perspectiva de crescimento A parada é que esse mercado tá com gás total pra crescer nos próximos anos, parceiro:
Máquinas e Equipamentos: A expectativa é que o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos cresça cerca de 6,57% ao ano até 2033, podendo chegar a uns US$ 364,66 bilhões.
Motores Elétricos: Esse setor tá prometendo um crescimento de uns 6,3% ao ano até 2029, podendo bater uns US$ 206,4 bilhões. A demanda por carros elétricos tá puxando muito esse crescimento.
Automação Industrial: Essa é a cereja do bolo! A expectativa é que o mercado de automação industrial dispare uns 9,1% ao ano até 2033, alcançando uns US$ 420,49 bilhões. A busca por mais produtividade, menos erros e mais eficiência tá impulsionando essa onda.
Materia sobre carros eletricos
Oportunidades que o ativo traz
Na minha visão, as maiores oportunidades que a Wege nos traz são:
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Equipamentos Eletroeletrônicos Industriais
Esta área inclui os motores elétricos, drives e equipamentos e serviços de automação industrial e serviços de manutenção. Os motores elétricos e demais equipamentos têm aplicação em praticamente todos os segmentos industriais, em equipamentos como compressores, bombas e ventiladores.
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Geração Transmissão e Distribuição de Energia (GTD)
Os produtos e serviços incluídos nesta área são os geradores elétricos para usinas hidráulicas e térmicas (biomassa), turbinas hidráulicas (PCH e CGH), aerogeradores, transformadores, subestações, painéis de controle e serviços de integração de sistemas.
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Motores Comerciais e Appliance
O foco de atuação nesta área é o mercado de motores monofásicos para bens de consumo durável, como lavadoras de roupas, aparelhos de ar condicionado, bombas de água, entre outros.
Desde Janeiro/25, podemos observar que o gráfico teve uma queda no seu preço. Contudo, continua se mantendo acima da ema200 e com ótimo volume negociado. Isso tudo caracteriza que a tendência majoritária ainda é compradora. Então, devemos pensar em atuar somente nesse sentido.
Riscos
Os maiores riscos que vejo hoje, para uma empresa tão sólida como Wege são:
- Instabilidade Econômica Global e Regional, qualquer flutuação em mercado chave atuante pode representar um risco.
- Inflação e Custo de Insumos, principalmente aço e cobre que são matérias prima base.
- Políticas Tarifárias e Protecionismo, se o homem laranja dos EUA impor tarifas. Pode afetar sim os negócios da empresa como um todo.
Catalisadores
Na minha visão, os catalisadores da empresa. Que impulsionam e continuaram dando força a ela são:
- Forte diversificação de receita, 53% vem em dólar.
- Boa perspectiva do aumento do valor do dólar. Isso representa mais caixa.
- As aquisiçõess feitas recentemente, que vão impulsionar a receita da empresa.
Faq
Qual foi o desempenho da WEGE3 nas últimas 52 semanas?
13.95% foi desempenho das ações da WEGE3 até o momento.
WEGE3 paga dividendos? Qual o Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3?
Sim, WEGE3 (WEG) paga dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio (JCP). O Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3 tem variado ao longo do tempo, mas geralmente se encontra entre 1,4% e 1,8%, dependendo da cotação atual das ações e dos valores de dividendos e JCP distribuídos.
O que é a WEG? Qual o setor de atuação da WEG?
A WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, que atua principalmente no setor de bens de capital. A empresa se destaca por suas soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação, tintas e sistemas de energia, com foco em eficiência energética e sustentabilidade.
Quais produtos a WEG fabrica?
A WEG produz uma vasta gama de produtos e soluções, abrangendo desde equipamentos elétricos e eletrônicos até tintas e vernizes.
Qual é o P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3?
O P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3, conforme indicadores de mercado, está em torno de 29,32.
Bio
Investir não precisa ser um bicho de sete cabeças! Na Threedolar, democratizamos o acesso ao mundo dos investimentos, oferecendo conteúdo claro e prático. Comece hoje mesmo a construir seu futuro financeiro!
Disclaimer
Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!
Referencia
https://www.fundamentus.com.br/detalhes.php?papel=WEGE3&h=1
https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/perfil-corporativo/
https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/por-que-a-weg/
https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/auto/carros-eletrificados-registram-85-de-aumento-nas-vendas-de-2024/
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-24 18:41:43Why
is
this
noton
separate
lines -
@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 15:01:33The exchange reveals the extent of the breach that occurred last December as federal authorities investigate the recent data leak.
Coinbase has disclosed that the personal data of 69,461 users was compromised during the breach in December 2024, according to documentation filed with the Maine Attorney General’s Office.
The disclosure comes after Coinbase announced last week that a group of hackers had demanded a $20 million ransom, threatening to publish the stolen data on the dark web. The attackers allegedly bribed overseas customer service agents to extract information from the company’s systems.
Coinbase had previously stated that the breach affected less than 1% of its user base, compromising KYC (Know Your Customer) data such as names, addresses, and email addresses. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company clarified that passwords, private keys, and user funds were not affected.
Following the reports, the SEC has reportedly opened an official investigation to verify whether Coinbase may have inflated user metrics ahead of its 2021 IPO. Separately, the Department of Justice is investigating the breach at Coinbase’s request, according to CEO Brian Armstrong.
Meanwhile, Coinbase has faced criticism for its delayed response to the data breach. Michael Arrington, founder of TechCrunch, stated that the stolen data could cause irreparable harm. In a post on X, Arrington wrote:
“The human cost, denominated in misery, is much larger than the $400m or so they think it will actually cost the company to reimburse people. The consequences to companies who do not adequately protect their customer information should include, without limitation, prison time for executives.”
Coinbase estimates the incident could cost between $180 million and $400 million in remediation expenses and customer reimbursements.
Arrington also condemned KYC laws as ineffective and dangerous, calling on both regulators and companies to better protect user data:
“Combining these KYC laws with corporate profit maximization and lax laws on penalties for hacks like these means these issues will continue to happen. Both governments and corporations need to step up to stop this. As I said, the cost can only be measured in human suffering.”
The post Coinbase: 69,461 users affected by December 2024 data breach appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-24 18:17:22Vestibulum a nunc a sapien aliquam rhoncus\ Sed sem turpis, scelerisque sed augue ut, faucibus blandit lectus
Maecenas commodo, augue in placerat lacinia, lorem libero convallis mi, eu fringilla velit arcu id sem. In ac metus vitae sapien dignissim luctus
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 15:01:31Bitcoin adoption will come through businesses: neither governments nor banks will lead the revolution.
In recent years, it’s undeniable that Bitcoin has ceased to be just a radical idea born from the minds of cypherpunks. It is now recognized across the board as a global asset, discussed in the upper echelons of finance, accepted even on Wall Street, purchased by banking groups and included as a “strategic reserve” by some nations.
However, the general perception that hovers today regarding Bitcoin’s diffusion is still that of minimal adoption, almost insignificant. Bitcoin exists, certainly, but in fact it is not being used. It is rarely possible to pay in satoshis in commercial establishments. Demand is still extremely low.
Furthermore, the debate on Bitcoin is still practically absent: excluding some local events, some niche media outlets or some timid discussion, today Bitcoin is in fact excluded from general interest. The level of understanding and knowledge of the phenomenon is certainly still very low.
Yet, Bitcoin represents an unprecedented technological improvement, capable of solving many problems inherent in the fiat system in which we live. What could facilitate its diffusion?
Bitcoin becomes familiar when businesses adopt it
When talking about Bitcoin adoption, many look to States. They imagine governments that legislate or accumulate Bitcoin as a “strategic reserve,” or banks perceived as forward-thinking that would lead technological change, opening up to innovation. But the reality is different: bureaucracy, political constraints, and fear of losing control inherently prevent States and central banks from being pioneers.
What really drives Bitcoin adoption are not States, but businesses. It is the forward-looking entrepreneurs, innovative startups and – eventually – even large multinational companies that decide to integrate Bitcoin into their operating systems that drive adoption. Indeed, the business world has always played a key role in the adoption of new technologies. This was the case, for example, with the internet, e-commerce, mobile telephony, and the cloud. It will also be the case with Bitcoin.
Unlike a State, when a company adopts Bitcoin, it does so for concrete reasons: efficiency, savings, protection, access to new markets, independence from traditional banking circuits, or bureaucratic streamlining. It is a rational choice, not an ideological one, dictated by the intent to improve one’s competitiveness against the competition to survive in the market.
What is currently missing to facilitate adoption is, in all likelihood, a significant number of businesses that have decided to integrate Bitcoin into their company systems.
Bitcoin becomes “normal” when it is integrated into the operational flow of businesses. Holding and framing bitcoin on the balance sheet, paying an invoice, paying salaries to employees in satoshis, making value transfers globally thanks to the blockchain, allowing customers to pay via Lightning Network… when all this becomes possible with the same simplicity with which we use the euro or the dollar, Bitcoin stops being alternative and becomes the standard.
Businesses are not just users. They are adoption multipliers. When a company chooses Bitcoin, it is automatically proposing it to customers, employees, suppliers, and institutional stakeholders. Each business adoption equals tens, hundreds, or thousands of new eyes on Bitcoin.
People, after all, trust what they see every day: if your trusted restaurant accepts bitcoin, or if your favorite e-commerce platform uses it to receive international payments, or if your colleague receives it as a salary, then Bitcoin no longer appears to be a mysterious object. It finally begins to be perceived as a real, useful, and functioning tool.
The integration of a technology in companies helps make it understandable, accessible, and legitimate in the eyes of the public. This is how distrust is overcome: by making Bitcoin visible in daily life.
Bitcoin and businesses today
A River Financial report estimates that as of May 2025, only 5% of bitcoin is currently owned by private businesses. A still very small number.
According to research by River, in May 2025 businesses hold just over a million btc (about 5% of available monetary units). More than two-thirds of bitcoin (68.2%) are in the hands of private individuals.
To promote Bitcoin adoption, it is necessary today to support businesses in integrating this standard, leveraging all its enormous opportunities. Among others, this technology allows for fast, economical, and global payments. It eliminates intermediaries, increases transparency and security in value transfers. It removes bureaucratic frictions and allows opening up to a new global market.
Every sector can benefit from Bitcoin: e-commerce, tourism, industry, restaurants, professional services, or any other business. Bitcoin revolutionizes the concept of money, and money is a transversal working tool.
We are still at the beginning, but several signals are encouraging. According to a study by Bitwise and reported by Atlas21, in the first quarter of 2025, a growing number of US companies (+16.11% compared to the previous one) are including Bitcoin in their balance sheets, not just as a financial bet, but as a long-term strategy to protect their assets and access a decentralized monetary system to transfer value worldwide without resorting to financial intermediaries.
Who is driving the change?
Echoing the words of Roy Sheinfeld, CEO of Breez, the true potential of Bitcoin will be unleashed first and foremost from the work of developers, the true architects in designing and refining tools that are increasingly simple and intuitive to use for anyone, regardless of level of expertise. It is the developers – Roy rightly argued – who will enable us to “conquer the world.”
But probably that’s not enough: the next step is to make Bitcoin a globally accepted technological standard, changing its perception towards the general public. And this is where businesses come into play.
Guided by the market, technological innovation, and the desire to meet user demands, entrepreneurs today represent the fulcrum to accelerate the monetary transition from the current fiat system towards the Bitcoin standard. It is entrepreneurs who transform innovations from opportunities for a few to a reality shared by many.
The adoption of Bitcoin will therefore not arise from a sudden event, nor from the exclusive fruit of enthusiasts’ enthusiasm or from arbitrary political choices decreed by States or regulators.
The future of Bitcoin is built in the places where value is created every day: in companies, in their systems, and in their strategic decisions.
“If we conquer developers, we conquer the world. If we conquer businesses, we conquer adoption.”
The post The key to Bitcoin adoption is businesses appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b
2025-05-24 18:17:09Ovaj post sam objavio 24.01.2024. godine na Redditu povodom tri decenije od uvođenja Novog dinara kao rešenja za hiperinflaciju u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji na šta su pojedini besni nokoineri sa te društvene mreže osuli drvlje i kamenje na mene. Od starih budalaština da je Bitkoin bezvredan, da nije oblik novca već finansijsko ulaganje, preko pravdanja svrhe inflacije, sve do potpune nemoći da se argumentima opovrgne nepobitna istina i pozivanja moderatora da me banuju. 🙃
Cena Bitkoina tada je bila oko $40.000. :)
Osim glavnog posta, ovde ću navesti i moje odgovore na neutemeljene i neinformisane tvrdnje besnih nokoinera. :) Da se sačuva od zaborava!
Juče se navršilo 30 godina "Deda Avramove reforme".
Dan kada je rođen novi dinar, a Deda Avram sasekao hiperinflaciju
Dva jajeta – nedeljna profesorska plata: Kako se živelo u hiperinflaciji i šta je uradio Avramović
Vikipedija: Jugoslovenski dinar
„U julu '93. godine u Jugoslaviji nisi mogao skoro ništa da kupiš i niko za dinare nije hteo ništa da prodaje“, pisao je Avramović. Centralno-bankarska prevara se nastavlja jer je već do kraja 1995. dinar oslabio prema marki za 70% (1 dinar = 3.4 DM), a u decembru 2000. je taj kurs već bio 30.5 dinara za 1 DM (-96.7% od uvođenja novog dinara). To samo pokazuje da redenominacija valute tj. "brisanje nula" nije nikako čudo i viđano je puno puta kroz istoriju)
Ako je reformom iz januara '94 god. 1 novi dinar vredeo kao 1 nemačka marka, zatim od 2002. uveden evro čime je realna vrednost marke (samim tim i dinara) prepolovljena, a danas 1 EUR vredi oko 117 RSD, to znači da je "deda Avramov dinar" prema evru već obezvređen 59.91 puta za 30 godina. Dakle devalvacija dinara od 5991% od 1994. godine, a svakako još veća izražena kroz dobra i usluge jer su i nemačka marka do 2002. i evro od svog uvođenja iste godine prošli kroz sopstvenu inflaciju. Sam evro je izgubio oko 38% vrednosti od 2002. godine. Tako da se može reći da i "deda Avramov dinar" već uveliko prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju koja je samo razvučena na mnogo duži vremenski period (ne brinite - znam "zvaničnu" definiciju hiperinflacije - još jedan "gaslighting" centralno-bankarskog kartela da zabašuri šta se iza brda valja). Jer šta je inflacija od preko 5991% nego višedecenijska hiperinflacija?! Kako ne shvata gigantske razmere ove prevare?!
ISPRAVKA: Dinar nije nominalno izgubio 23400% (234x) vrednosti prema nemačkoj marki/evru od 1994. godine, već 59.91x odnosno 5991%. I danas na sajtu NBS postoji zvanični srednji kurs marke prema dinaru od 59,91:1. Realno, obezvređivanje dinara i evra prema robama i uslugama je puno veće, pošto su cene roba i usluga izražene u evrima ubrzo udvostručene u periodu nakon uvođenja evra. Hvala članu DejanJwtq na ispravci i izvinjenje svima od mene zbog greške.
Dafiment i Jugoskandik ("Dafina i Jezda") su bili samo državna konstrukcija da se izvuku devize iz ruku naivnih investitora da bi te devize nešto kasnije poslužile kao tobožnja rezerva za novi dinar. Ova gigantska prevara je unapred bila planirana, a Deda Avram iskorišćen kao marioneta tadašnjeg režima.
Inače lista država koje su izvršile redenominaciju valute kroz "brisanje nula" je poprilično dugačka i radi se o uobičajenoj pojavi kroz istoriju još od Haitija 1813. godine, a poslednji put su to uradile Sijera Leone i Kolumbija 2021. godine. Odavno je zaboravljeno da je (SR) Jugoslavija devedesetih to učinila još 1990. (10.000:1), 1992. (10:1), 1993. (1.000.000:1) i 1994. pre Avramovića (1.000.000.000∶1) ali je ovaj dinar trajao samo 23 dana. Tako da Deda Avram nije izmislio toplu vodu.
U SFRJ je izvršena jedna redenominacija 1966. godine u odnosu 10.000:1.
Wikipedia: Redenomination
Kome i dalje nije jasno zašto Bitkoin neka više puta pažljivo pročita ove tekstove iznad: oblik novca koji se ne može redenominirati, veoma lako konfiskovati i izdavati bez ikakve kontrole i pokrića. Potpuno nezavistan od kaprica korumpiranih i od realnosti otuđenih političara i centralnih bankara. Veoma je bitno da postoji ovakav oblik novca koji nije podložan ovakvim manipulacijama od strane ljudskog faktora i da postoji slobodan izbor da se taj oblik novca odabere za štednju i transakcije: barem od strane onih koji ga razumeju, ovi koji ne žele da razumeju neka i dalje pristaju da budu pljačkani - njima ionako nema pomoći.
Komentari
brainzorz: Da, ali ako cemo realno bitkoin ne sluzi kao oblik novca, vec kao finansijsko ulaganje.
Bar je tako za nas i vecinu ljudi po svetu u praktičnom smislu. Jer 99.99% ljudi ili koliko vec prime platu u svojoj lokalnoj valuti, trose istu na redovan zivot, a ostatak (ako ga ima) investiraju. Slazem se da lokalne valute imaju svoj neki rizik, koji je veci u banana drzavi i da cuvanje svog kapitala u turbulentnom periodu u istoj je jako losa ideja.
Kada tako posmatras onda se mogu vuci pararele izmedju ostalih aseta, poput ETFova na primer i onda dolazimo do gomile problema sa bitkoinom.
@BTCSRB: Bitkoin se ne može porediti sa ETF-ovima pošto ETF-ove i ostale investicione instrumente ne možeš koristiti kao novac jer oni nisu "bearer assets" kao što jeste BTC. BTC eliminiše potpuno inflaciju (jer džabe ti keš u slamarici kao "bearer asset" kada je podložan inflaciji) i potrebu za posrednikom kod elektronskih plaćanja.
brainzorz: Ali on to eleminise samo u teoriji, sad da odem u pekaru, moram platiti u lokalnoj valuti, sad da li cu prodati bitkoin ili etf, prilicno je slicno.
Jedino sto mogu bitkoin zamenuti uzivo (ilegalno) sa nekim, pa tu jeste zamenjen posrednik. Ali provizije povlacenja su uglavnom zanemarljive, naspram ostalih parametara investicionog sredstva.
Neke stvari se mogu direktno platiti za bitkoin, ali to je ekstremno retko u stvarnom zivotu vecine ljudi.
@BTCSRB: Slažem se ali u uslovima hiperinflacije i visoke inflacije kakvu danas imamo u Argentini, Venecueli, Zimbabveu, Libanu, Turskoj itd. sve više ljudi direktno vrši transakcije u kriptovalutama, naročito "stablecoinima" poput USDT Tethera. Priznajem da u tim transakcijama BTC zaostaje upravo zbog volatilnosti ali je vršenje brzih i jeftinih transakcija svakako moguće putem Lightning mreže. Sve te lokalne valute su izgubile značajnu vrednost i prema USDT i prema BTC-u, odnosno BTC konstantno probija rekordnu vrednost kada se denominuje u tim valutama. I u tim državama je adopcija kriptovaluta najraširenija.
HunterVD: Kako valuta u koju se upumpavaju nepostojeci dolari i evri moze biti realna i dobra. A USDT tek da ne spominjem. Mozes uvek revi jer joj ljudi veruju, al ta vera u nesto ide samo do odredjenog nivoa.
@BTCSRB: Godinama kupujem BTC od svake plate, praktično štedim u njemu i kupovna moć mi vremenom raste denominirana u evrima i dinarima. To isto rade na desetine hiljada ljudi širom sveta. Kako su ti realni dinari i evri koje ubacujem svakog meseca koje sam zaradio od svog realnog rada - "nepostojeći"?
Kako dolari i evri koji se štampaju ni iz čega mogu biti realni i dobri kao valuta?
HunterVD: Pa eto bas to. Ulaze se nepostojeci novac u BTC i onda se prica o nekoj novoj valuti. Nije sija nego vrat, BTC ima jedino vrednost dok se upumpava taj lazni novac u njega. FIAT novac kolko tolko nastaje radom i proizvodnjom dobara, ne sav FIAT novac al neki deo, dok se BTC zasniva skroz na upumpavanje tog istog FIAT novca i dobroj volji i zeljama da magicne brojke idu navise.
@BTCSRB: Itekako je moguće izraziti cenu svih ostalih dobara i usluga kroz BTC i postojanje i vrednost BTC-a uopšte ne zavisi od fiat novca. Štaviše, gotova sva dobra i usluge dugoročno postaju jeftiniji kada se mere kroz BTC. Sutra kada bi fiat novac nestao BTC bi i dalje imao vrednost, čak i veću nego danas.
https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/
HunterVD: Naravno da je moguce izraziti cene svakodnevnih proizvoda u BTCu. Cene svakodnevnih proizvoda je moguce izraziti u cemu god pozelis, evo npr broj radnih sati koji je potreban da se proizvede taj proizvod i onda se uporedi sa cenom radnih sati i cene na polici, mozes ga uracunavati i u dobrima , jedan iphone kosta tolko i tolko KG juneceg mesa..... nista cudno. Takodje cene proizvoda pokazuju pad u odnosu sa BTCom jer je BTC masivno porastao u poslednjih 5-6 godina. Sta ce biti kad BTC stagnira ili pada kako se u tom periodu odnose cene, a da BTC je store of value i namenjen je samo da se cuva izvinte molim vas moja greska. Ni druge kripto valute nisu nista bolje. Ljudi koji su zaradili na BTCu svaka cast eto imali su pameti i srece , al sad kako je cena sve veca, inflacija sve losija i kamatne stope sve vise postace sve teze i teze dolaziti do novca a kamo li intvestirati ga u nesto rizicno ko kripto valute tako da ce i BTC sve manje rasti sto zbog velicine market cap-a sto zbog toga sto ljudi i firme imaju sve manje novca za ulagati. Dal ce btc moci da se uzbori sa inflacijom i losim uslovima to tek treba da se vidi. Tako da videcemo u narednom periodu koliko ce se ta priva o BTC kao store of value i nacinu odbrane od inflacije obistiniti. Licno ne verujem da ce BTC ikad biti zvanicno sredstvo placanja.
@BTCSRB: Cena svega se može izraziti kroz sve ostalo ali šta od svega toga najbolje vrši funkciju novca? BTC bolje vrši funkciju novca u većini okolnosti od gotovo svih stvari.
Šta će biti sa BTC videće se i oni koji veruju u njega će biti najzaslužniji za njegov uspeh jer su obezbeđivali potražnju kada su kola išla nizbrdo i za to biti asimetrično nagrađeni, ali će i puno izgubiti ako se pokaže da nisu u pravu. Pukovnici ili pokojnici. Po meni je to cilj zbog koga vredi rizikovati, pa i bankrotirati a cilj je da se centralno-bankarski kartel učini manje relevantnim.
Znaš i sam da fiat sistem ne može da preživi i izbegne imploziju bez konstantnog uvećanja mase novca u opticaju i zato se uopšte ne plašim za BTC i spavam mirno. BTC sigurno neće rasti istom brzinom kao prvih 15 godina ali moje očekivanje je svakako ubedljivo nadmašivanje svetske inflacije i obezvređivanja. Ne vidim kako sistem može da opstane bez novog QE kada god se on desi, u suprotnom imamo deflatornu spiralu.
Ne mora da bude zvanično sredstvo plaćanja, dovoljno da meni kao pojedincu služi za to dok god ima ljudi koji ga prihvataju, a ima ih puno. I da niko u tome ne može da nas spreči.
loldurrr: Ali i BTC je postao, u neku ruku, berzanska roba. Imaš market cap izražen u dolarima, koji je danas, npr. 2 triliona $, za mjesec dana 500 milijardi. Isto kao i dolar, samo volatilnije. Zato i kažem, da je to sve rezultat ponude i tražnje. Hipotetički, ja da imam milion BTC i odlučim to danas prodati, enormno ću oboriti cenu BTC. Ako je to valuta nezavisna od vanjskih uticaja - zašto će pasti toliko, kada imamo ograničenu količinu BTC-a. Svima je i dalje u podsvesti vrednost BTC izražena u USD, tako da je to isto kao i dinar, franak, akcija CocaCola i sl. Bar za sada...
A mogućnosti za korištenje BTC za robna plaćanja su mizerna. Ima li na vidiku mogućnosti da se vrednost nafte počne izražavati u BTC?
@BTCSRB: Meriti Bitkoin direktno prema robama i uslugama je itekako moguće i kada ga tako meriš, a ne prema fiat novcu, dugoročno cene gotovo svih roba i usluga padaju prema Bitkoinu. Cene svega izražene kroz BTC neće nestati ni u slučaju nestanka fiat novca, dolar sutra da prestane da postoji nikoga ne sprečava da izražava cene svega kroz BTC. Dolar i ostale valute nisu potrebni Bitkoinu.
Unlikely-Put-5524: Imam samo jedno pitanje za one "koji vide iza svega" i pronikli su bankarsku prevare da porobi čovečanstvo... Kako ne postoji mogućnost da je BTC i kripto nastao iz iste kuhinje i predstavlja ultimativni način za porobljavanje?
2% novčanika poseduje 95% svog BTC-a koji nije izgubljen. Znači da centralizacija može biti maksimalna...
@BTCSRB: Količina BTC-a u posedu ne daje kontrolu nad pravilima protokola i većinski vlasnici ne mogu da štampaju nove novčiće i tako uvećaju konačnu količinu u opticaju. Mogu samo da kratkoročno obore cenu i tako samo ostanu sa manje BTC-a koji imaju pošto će tržište vremenom apsorbovati te dampovane koine.
Unlikely-Put-5524: A mogu i dugoročno da obore cenu. Hajde da kažemo da imaš sada 10 BTC-a gde svaki vredi 40k
Veliki dumpu-ju ceo svoj bag u kontinutitetu kao što sad radi GS i posle godinu dana tvoj BTC sad vredi 4k, zašto misliš da bi ljudi nastavili da ga drže? Posebno ako znamo da ga 97% kupuje da bi zaradili, a ne zato što žele da ga koriste kao sredstvo plaćanja.
Ja bih ore BTC gledao kao commodity, jer sa svojim deflatornim svojstvima ne može biti valuta za plaćanje.
Takođe postoji i doomsday scenario gde jednostavno mogu svi da se dogovore da je ilegalan i to je onda to. Ovo mi deluje kao gotovo neverovatno, ali po meni je bilo koji maksimalizam potpuno detinjasto razmišljanje.
@BTCSRB: Pa padao je toliko puta za preko 70% i uvek se vraćao jer si uvek imao ljude koji su bili spremni da ga kupuju po bilo kojoj ceni, uključujući i mene. Pošto se ne može štampati, na kraju će ovi prodavci ostati bez BTC-a za prodaju i tržište apsorbovati čak i njihov "sell pressure". A ovi veliki koji drže tolike količine itekako dobro znaju vrednost toga što poseduju i nema smisla da svu količinu koju drže prodaju za inflatorni novac - prodavaće da bi finansirali svoj životni stil ili investiraju u biznise ili će ga koristiti kao kolateral za fiat pozajmice - ako raspolažu tolikim količinama i mogu da kontrolišu tržište nemaju strah da će im kolateral biti likvidiran.
Većina ljudi su fiat maksimalisti samim tim što su 100% u fiat novcu pa ne razmišljaju u pravcu doomsday scenarija kakav je upravo bila hiperinflacija devedesetih.
Romeo_y_Cohiba: Niko ti ne brani da ulažeš u bitcoin pod uslovom da znaš da je rizičniji od gotovog novca, štednje po viđenju, oročene štednje, obveznica, nekretnina, akcija, raznoraznih etfova, private equitya i derivata.
Drugim rečima ako ti je ok da danas uložiš 1000e, da za nedelju dana to vredi 500e, za mesec 1500 a za pola godina 300e ili 0 samo napred. Većini ljudi to nije ok.
Razlog zašto pamtimo Avrama je jer njegov dinar i dan danas koristimo. Prethodne uzastopne reforme nisu uspele kao što si i sam primetio.
Takođe, nije u pitanju "centralno-bankarska" prevara jer se ništa od toga ne bi desilo da ovom "odozgo" nisu zatrebale pare za finansiranje izvesnih stvari.
I dan danas, izvesni političar(i) izađu na TV i kažu da su "našli" novac za neki svoj genijalni plan i ljudi to puše. To u prevodu najčešće znači da će da nagna centralnu banku da mu doštampa novca i to nema veze sa bankama nego politikom..
@BTCSRB: Za investicione instrumente koje si naveo treba videti koliko su uspešno nadvladavali inflaciju prethodnih decenija i da li su očuvali kupovnu moć. Za štednju u banci i obveznice se i iz daleka vidi da nisu. US obveznice su u septembru imale drawdown od 48% od ATH iz 2020, a kao važe sa sigurnu investiciju. Čak i u momentu dospeća posle 10-30 godina jako teško čuvaju vrednost od inflacije.
A sada se zapitaj: da li zaista misliš da političari kontrolišu banke i bankare ili je možda obrnuto? Nisu političari ti koji su vlasnici krupnog kapitala.
Romeo_y_Cohiba: Ne investiraju svi na 10-30 godina za potrebe penzije. To je samo jedan od mnogo vidova i razloga investiranja. Nadvladavanje inflacije je isto tako samo jedan od kriterijuma. Samo pogledaš u šta jedan penzioni fond u SAD-u investira(hint: nije btc i nisu samo akcije). Npr. neki penzioni fondovi su od skoro počeli da investiraju u private equity ali isključivo do 15% veličine portfolija. Počeće i sa kriptom u nekom trenutku ali mogu da potpišem da će biti u još manjem procentu nego PE. Niko nije blesav da grune teško stečeni novac u nešto tako rizično osim u jako malim iznosima.
Ne znam ko koga kontroliše ali Avram je bio daleko manji baja od Slobe 90ih i pitao se za stvari samo u meri koliko mu je bio dozvoljeno da se pita. Ratovanje košta i finansira se štampanjem novca, nisu to neke neshvatljive stvari. Da ne pričam da smo bili pod apsolutnim sankcijama celog sveta.
Virtual_Plenty_6047: Npr jedan od velikih uspeha Japana od pre par decenija je zahvaljujući devalvaciji njihove valute, pa samim tim izvoz im je bio relativno jeftin. Naš dinar je jak, i to odgovara uvozničkom lobiju.
Nažalost mi ionako ništa ne proizvodimo tako da ne verujem da bi nešto pomoglo ako bi devalvirali dinar. Al svakako ovo je jedna viša ekonomija za koju naši političari nisu dorasli.
@BTCSRB: Gde je običan čovek u tom velikom japanskom uspehu? Postali su zemlja starih i nesrećnih mladih ljudi koji ne mogu da pobegnu iz "hamster wheel-a". Imaju "debt to GDP" od preko 260%. Taj dug nikada neće vratiti, a uz to će povući u ambis pola sveta jer najveći držaoci američkog duga - 14.5%. Spolja gladac, iznutra jadac. Iako je malo degutantno da mi iz Srbije komentarišemo Japance, opet pitam: gde je prosečan Japanac u celoj ovoj igri?
Why Japan Is Facing a Financial Disaster
Preporučujem da pogledate dokumentarac "Princes of the Yen | The Hidden Power of Central Banks" snimljenom po istoimenoj knjizi profesora Riharda Vernera koji je otac kvantitativnog popuštanja (quantitative easing) i ekspert za japansku ekonomiju i bankarski sistem.
Virtual_Plenty_6047: Zato sam rekao od pre nekoliko decenija. Jer su do pre nekih 30 godina bili 50 godina ispred celog sveta, sad su 20 godina iza naprednog sveta. Japanci su svako specifični. Poenta mog komentara da postoji razlog za neke zemlje da oslabe svoju valutu, i može itekako dobro da radi ako se radi u sinergiji sa nekim drugim ekonomskim merama. Tako da odgovor na to opet pitam, ne znam gde je prosečni Japanac, uskoro tamo trebam da idem pa ću ti reći. :'D
Odgledao sam ja ovaj dokumentarac odavno, super je. Pročitao mnoge knjige, a ponajviše od Austrijske ekonomske škole gde su pojedinci (Hayek) bili prvi koji su zagovarali novu decentralizovanu valutu, bili su u toj školi mnogi koji su prvi pričali o problemu inflacije i šta je tačno inflacija, ali su bili i za kapitalizam. Ali ovo je zaista jedna visoka ekonomija, videćeš da nije baš sve tako jednostavno kao što misliš.
Malo si previše u kriptovalutama pa gledaš na sve drugo u ekonomiji sa prekorom, pogotovu na kapitalizam. Evo i ja sam sam dobro investiran u kripto (uglavnom u BTC) pa sam itekako svestan da sve to može na kraju da bude potpuna pizdarija.
p.s. Knjiga za preporuku: 23 stvari koje vam ne kazu o kapitalizmu
@BTCSRB: Nisam u kriptovalutama nego isključivo u BTC.
Nisam ja protiv kapitalizma samo što nije pravi kapitalizam kada ne postoji slobodno tržište novca, pa samim tim ne postoji uopšte slobodno tržište koliko god se činilo tako. Kada su ekonomski subjekti prisiljeni da koriste određeni oblik novca, a monetarna politika se centralno planira - po meni tu nema slobodnog tržišta niti kapitalizma. Npr. formiranje cene Bitkoina i transakcionih naknada je čisto slobodno tržište jer tu nema "bailout-a", a BTC mining industrija je pravi primer slobodnog tržišta u kapitalizmu. Čista ponuda i potražnja bez intervencionizma. Ako si neprofitabilan nema ti spasa i bankrotiraćeš i nema nikoga ko će ti priteći u pomoć. Niko nije "too big to fail".
Znam da sam se ovde usredsredio usko na jednu industriju ali se može primeniti na celokupnu ekonomiju. Države i centralne banke su suvišne i apsolutno pokvare sve čega se dotaknu pa će u slučaju potpune pizdarije odgovornost biti na njima, a ne na Bitkoinu i njegovim držaocima.
kutija_keksa: Evo zašto btc nije pogodan kao valuta:
-Volatilna vrednost. Vrednost btc se menja i do 200% godišnje, dok dolar ne trpi inflaciju vecu od 10% godišnje (mada je u redovnim uslovima tipa 3%). Čak i dinar, ako gledaš realnu kupovnu moć u prodavnici nema volatilnost preko 30% na godišnjem nivou (jedno 7 puta nižu od BTC) Ako danas kupim BTC u vrednosti od 15 USD ne znam da li ću sutra moći da kupim 10 ili 20 USD za isti taj BTC.
-„Gas fees” koji se plaćaju na svaku transakciju, u poređenjusa kešom koji nema takvih problema.
-Spor transfer novca. Arhitektura blockchaina ne dozvoljava mreži da procesuira više od 10 transakcija po sekundi, što značida na transakciju možete čekati i po nekoloo sati, u poređenju sa kešom (bez odugovlačenja) ili debitnim karticama (10 sekundi do 10 minuta). Visa i MasterCard procesuiraju hiljadu puta više transakcija po sekundi.
-Retko ko eksplicitno prima BTC, tako da ćete plaćati menjačnici na kursu u oba smera, i pritom čekati menjačnicu.
-Podložan je manipulacijama velikih igrača poput Ilona Maska i velikih banki koje su u zadnjih pet godina debelo uložile u kripto. Fiat je na milosti države i njenih građana, dok je BTC na milost privatnih investitora. Kome verujete više?
-SVE BTC transakcije su jsvne, ako neko zna koji novčanik je vaš lako zna i koliko para ste kada slali kome, dok fizičke novčanice nemaju taj problem.
-Vrednost i upotreljivost BTC ne garantuje niko, dok vrednost i upotrebljivost fiat valute barem donekle garantuje država. Na primer, Srbija garantuje da je dinar upotrebljiv jer zahteva da vodu, struju, poreze, namete i takse plaćaš u dinarima, a i javni sektor (10% čitavog stanovništva) isplaćuje isključivo u dinarima.
OP očigledno ima jako ostrašćenu ideološku perspektivu... Ja nisam stručnjak, ali je moj otac pisao naučne radove o blockchainu dok je bio na doktorskim studijama, još kad je pomisao o BTC vrednijem od sto dolada bila smešna, tako da znam nešto malo kroz priče sa njim. Uostalom, sve o čemu pričam lako je proveriti pomoću javnih podataka. Ono što OP piše je jednim delom tačno, ali su iznete samo one informacije koje idu u prilog BTC.
Kripto kao pobuna protiv fiata, centralnih banaka i vlada je imao ideološke korene kod anarhista na internetu devedestih, međutim od njihovih belih papira i špekulacija dobili smo nešto što je kao valuta beskorisno. BTC može biti investicija, ako su ljudi iskreni sa sobom, ali ideja o valuti je prevaziđena. Ako i neka kripto valuta drži do toga onda je to Monero koji bar ima anonimnost.
@BTCSRB: Ne ulazeći u sve iznete navode taksativno, ipak moram da prokomentarišem neke od nepreciznih ili netačnih navoda.
Transakcione naknade kod Bitkoina se ne zovu "gas fees" već "transaction fees". Kod keša nema takvih problema ali ga ne možete poslati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika. To mora da ima svoju cenu pošto BTC majneri moraju da imaju neki podsticaj da uključe nečiju transakciju u blok koji je ograničene veličine. BTC "fee market" je najslobodnije tržište na svetu. Fiat novac nemate mogućnost da pošaljete na daljinu bez posrednika koji takođe naplaćuje nekada dosta skupe naknade.
Besmisleno je porediti blokčejn kao "settlement layer" sa Visom i Mastercardom koje ne služe za finalno poravnanje. Glavni Bitkoin blokčejn se može pre uporediti s SWIFT-om ili FedWire-om kod kojih je jednom poravnata transakcija nepovratna, a Mastercard/Visa sa BTC "Lightning Network-om" koji služi za brza i jeftina plaćanja. Otac je trebalo da Vas nauči o Lightning mreži, kako funkcioniše i da je sposobna da procesuira više miliona transakcija u sekundi. Lightning mreža takođe nudi veći nivo privatnosti od glavnog blokčejna ali puno manju sigurnost.
Ne bih se složio da je fiat na milosti isključivo države i građana, samo ću spomenuti Crnu sredu iz septembra 1992. godine i spekulativni napad na britansku funtu.
BTC transakcije su javne ali su pseudonimne što znači da je jako teško utvrditi identitet ukoliko adresa nije povezana sa identitetom korisnika. Generisanje BTC adrese ne zahteva nikakvu identifikaciju ("krvnu sliku") za razliku od otvaranja bankovnog računa. Može se generisati neograničen broj adresa i na razne načine prekinuti i zamaskirati veza transakcija između njih radi očuvanja privatnosti. Ponovo, fizičke novčanice ne možemo slati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika, podložne su konfiskaciji, uništenju i obezvređivanju.
Upotrebljivost Bitkoina garantuje "open source" kod, energija, matematika i kriptografija. To su mnogo jače garancije nego obećanja bilo koje države koja su toliko puta u istoriji izigrale poverenje sopstvenog stanovništva - poput Jugoslavije devedesetih.
Ja sam BTC spomenuo kao potencijalno rešenje za (hiper)inflaciju tek u kraćem delu na kraju teksta, a od Vas i od ostalih komentatora sam dobio nesrazmeran odgovor usmeren na Bitkoin, a puno manje usmeren na navode iz najvećeg dela posta.
Tako ste i vi izneli isključivo informacije koje ne idu u prilog BTC-a, a potpuno ignorisali sve očigledne nedostatke fiat novca (kako u fizičkom, tako i u digitalnom obliku) koji su se i ispoljili tokom hiperinflacije devedesetih, a ispoljavaju se i dan-danas.
Svako dobro!
kutija_keksa: Zato su i „Gas fees” pod navodnicima.
Ne vidim zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima.
Ali, čak i da je dobro imati slobodno tržište, morate primetiti da BTC kopanje nije tako slobodno. Postojanje ASIC mašina znači da se kopanje prevashodno isplati velikim igračima (ne mislim na likove sa 3 riser kartice u PC, nego na kineze sa skladištima teških preko milion u opremi). Takođe, te velike operacije organi vlasti mogu zaustaviti kad im se prohte (Kina).
Jako je teško izvući BTC anonimno bez gubitka kod menjača -- pojedinca ili non KYC institucije.
Što se upotrebljivosti BTC tiče, šta meni garantuje da ću imati na šta da potrošim BTC? To je ključno pitanje. A kasa Jugoslovenski fiat nije bio upotebljiv, vidim da Nemački jeste. Isto tako, mislim da će USD biti upotrebljiv dugo, a kada USD bude neupotrebljiv društvo će ionako biti u apokalipsi gde papir nije važan koliko i hrana, utočište, voda, radio, municija, lekovi i vatreno oružje.
Naravno da iznosim samo informacije koje proizilaze iz nedostataka, to je balans postu i komentarima. Da su ljudi samo blatili kripto moj komentar bi mnogo više ličio na originalni post nego na moj prošli komentar. Ja se sa mnogim tvrdnjama u postu slažem delimično ili potpuno, samo želim da pružim kontekst za tumačenje toga.
Ideološki su mi Cryptopunks potpuno zanimljivi, ali cinizam je opravdan kada se u obzir uzme priča. Ljudi su želeli da se odupru bankama, vladama, kontroli i prismotri. Izmislili su tehnologiju. Počeli su da koriste i popularizuju tu tehnologiju. U prostor su ušle banke i vlade, kupovanjem, prodajom i praćenjem samog tržišta (danas sve velike menjačnice imaju KYC procedure). Kao u matriksu, kontrolisana opozicija. Ok, ovo je lična teorija zavere u koju ni ja ne verujem u potpunosti.
Ako govorimo o crypto kao valuti mislim da je XMR mnogo bolja VALUTA od BTC, dok je mnogo gora investicija. Jednostavno se slažem sa političkim i ideološkim ciljevima pionira kripto valuta, ali smatram da su oni ogromnim delom iznevereni zbog ulaska banaka i država u celu priču, te njihova stara rešenja više ne rešavaju originalne probleme.
@BTCSRB: BTC kao neutralni novac je za svakoga, pa i za bankare i države. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga kupe na tržištu i stave ga u kakav god instrument, pa i ETF. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga konfiskuju od onih koji nisu dobro obezbedili svoje ključeve. Države su regulisale ono što su mogle, poput menjačnica, kroz AML/KYC procedure ali kakve to veze ima sa BTC-om? Na protokol kao protokol nisu mogle da utiču.
Ko želi i dalje može koristiti BTC kako je i prvobitno predviđeno - za p2p transakcije i skladištenje vrednosti u "self custody-u". Bitkoin je i dalje "bearer asset" otporan na cenzuru i konfiskaciju. Ne vidim da je taj pravac promenjen samo zato što su ušle banke i države. Možda nije u duhu Bitkoina da ga kupuju fondovi pa ga prodaju upakovanog u ETF. Najmanje je u duhu bitkoina da se nekome zabrani da ga kupuje.
Kako to mislite "ne vidite zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima? Na decentralizaciji mininga se radi (StratumV2 protkol, Ocean pool...), a kineski primer je samo pokazatelj koliko je otporno: nakon zabrane raširilo se dodatno po svetu, a u Kini se i dalje nalazi 21% hešrejta. Majneri imaju veoma male margine profita zbog same prirode rudarenja i halvinga pa će bilo kakav "fck around" poput cenzure transakcija verovatno značiti bankrot.
Možemo do sutra pričati o XMR vs BTC i navešću puno razloga zašto XMR ne može i neće zaživeti kao novac, a pre svega je manjak decentralizacije (neograničena veličina blokčejna) i otpornost na državni napad - sve što Bitkoin ima. Kada je novac u pitanju pobednik nosi sve i tu je Monero već izgubio, dok će BTC poboljšanu privatnost obezbediti na ostalim nivoima, sidechainovima itd (Lightning, Liquid, Cashu, Fedimint, Ark i ko zna šta sve što još i ne postoji - nivo developmenta u Bitkoin prostoru je ogroman).
Dolar će uvek u nekom obliku biti upotrebljiv ali ne znači da će zauvek ostati svetska rezervna valuta, kao što i danas postoji funta ali odavno nije više ono što je bila na vrhuncu Britanske imperije.
kutija_keksa: Pa ti protokoli sprečavaju pljude da anonimno kupe BTC.
Mislim, BTC realno ima neku primenu, ali ja ga danas npr. imam čisto kao neku malu investicijicu, i to još od doba kad je kopanje sa 2 grafičke u kućnom PC bilo isplativo po skupoj struji. Ali BTC prosto nije dobra alternativa fizičkom novcu na nivou države zbog volatilnosti i manjka kontrole. Jedna ogromna poluga države je puštanje u promet novog novca, i tako se kontroliše inflacija, pored menjanja kamatnih stopa. Bez mogućnosti štampe gubi se i taj faktor kontrole. A inflacija od 2-3% godišnje je zdrava, dok je za ekonomiju deflacija (kojoj je BTC bar delimično sklon) haos, jer smanjuje ekonomsku aktivnost i investicije...
Što se tiče državnog napada na XMR, misliš na to kako jedna država može da realistično sprovede 51% napad?
XMR nije vrhovna valuta ali meni se sviđa kako za njega nema ASIC mašina, kako je anoniman u smislu da ne možeš lako da provališ ko kome koliko i kada šalje šta... Mislim da će XMR sigurno u toj privacy niši zameniti neka druga valuta kroz 10-15 godina koja ima bolji algoritam i tehnologiju...
Dobra dosetka za veličinu blockchaina, ali ona je trenutno 160GB cela / 50 GB pruned, tako nešto. Sve dok nije preko 10TB (100x) veća može je pohraniti najveći hard disk namenjen „običnim ljudima”, a kad se dođe do tad verovatno će i cene tih diskova biti pristupačnije nego danas. Sa druge strane, agresivan pruning je takođe opcija. A da ne govorimo o sidechainovima koji takođe postoje za XMR.
Da, to za dolar je i moja poenta, nekako će biti upotrebljiv uvek, dok je kripto neupotrebljiv bez neta, a i nema mnogo šta da se kupi kriptom u poređenju sa fiatom. I
@BTCSRB: Ima bezbroj načina da se nabavi non-KYC Bitkoin: coinjoin, coinmixing, rudarenje u non-KYC pulu, nabavka nekog drugog kripta putem KYC menjačnice pa "trustless atomic swap" za BTC, nabavka KYC BTC-a putem Lightning-a pa "submarine swap" on-chain, zatim nabavka bilo kog KYC kripta ili Lightning ili on-chain BTC-a pa swap na sidechain Liquid BTC gde su transakcije tajne slično XMR-u i nazad swap na on-chain. Naravno i stara narodska razmena na ulici. XMR se isto može koristiti za svrhu nabavke non-KYC Bitkoina. U svim ovim slučajevima se adrese koje su krajnje destinacije tih sredstava ne mogu ili jako teško povezati sa KYC identitetom korisnika. Više na: kycnot.me
Diskusija o tome da li je zdrava i potrebna inflacija i da li je uopšte potreban državni intervencionizam u ekonomiji je stara diskusija između Kejnzijanske i Austrijske ekonomske škole. Po meni svaka inflacija je pljačka. Da ne govorimo da centralni bankari ne snose nikakvu odgovornost za gubitak kontrole nad inflacijom koji se meri u stotinama procenata "omaška" jer kada je ciljana inflacija 2%, a imamo inflaciju od 10% to je onda promašaj od 500%. A svi vodeći centralni bankari su i dalje na svojim funkcijama od početka inflacije negde 2020. godine iako su izneverili sva očekivanja. Nisu izabrani od strane naroda i nemoguće ih je smeniti od strane naroda, a utiču na živote svih!
Usled tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti, prirodno stanje slobodnog tržišta je pad cena, a ne njihov konstantan rast kroz inflaciju. Ne postoji nikakva "poželjna" ili "neophodna" inflacija, svaka "ciljana" inflacija je pljačka koji onemogućava populaciju da uživa u plodovima sopstvene produktivnosti u obliku nižih cena svih roba i usluga. Bitkoin zbog svoje fiksne ponude novca u opticaju (21 milion novčića = apsolutna digitalna oskudnost) nameće ovu disciplinu slobodnog tržišta i tehnološkog napretka. Dok je postojeći dužnički fiat sistem dizajniran da krade plodove produktivnosti, Bitkoin omogućava populaciji da ih zadrži u obliku nižih cena.
Kada nema rasta cena, inflacija je 0% i cene su stabilne. Krađa i tada postoji, jer cene prirodno padaju zbog povećanja efikasnosti proizvodnje/usluga, gde bi se tada veca količina robe/usluga, takmičila za istu (fiksnu) količinu novča od 21M BTC-a.
Kakav je ishod ove diskusije nije bitno, bitno je da sada svako ima slobodu izbora kakav novac želi da koristi a ne da bude prisiljen da koristi isključivo inflatorni novac. Ako se neko ne slaže sa modernom monetarnom teorijom, sada ima alternativu koju nekada nije imao (zlato je odavno izgubilo bitku sa MMT) pre postojanja Bitkoina.
kutija_keksa: Neki od ovih non kyc nacina su mi vec bili poznati, neki nisu, ovo je bas informativan komentar.
A što je inflacija pljačka? Bez obzira na inflaciju, broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti, to što se one sada mogu zameniti za manje robe je druga priča. Da li je onda i zlato pljačka, jer neko kupi, na primer, 100g zlata danas, a sutra na tržištu cena zlata padne? Da li je onda pljačka i BTC, jer i danas i kad je BTC bio na vrhuncu cene imam isti broj satoshija, samo je danas njihova vrednost manja?
Ne vidim zašto bi centralni bankari snosili odgovornost zbog inflacije. Oni ugrobo imaju dve poluge za kontrolu inflacije: kamatne stope i štampanje novca. U realnosti na inflaciju utiče mnogo faktora na koje centralna banka nema uticaj, niti koje može da predvidi: pandemije, ratovi, državni budžeti i zaduživanja, trgovina u datoj valuti (i izvoz i uvoz), porast i pad produktivnosti... Oni imaju donekle uticaj, ali nisu svemoćni.
Što se tiče izbora, ovo već zalazi u politiku a ne u finansije, ali ni direktor pošte, ni direktor EPS, ni direktor vodovoda nisu birani na izborima na kojima glasaju svi, a utiču na živote svih!
Ne verujem u kripto kao spasioce kapitalizma ili pojedinca. Ovo je sada više politički, ali zaista mislim da u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, a da je kripto u najbolju ruku jedna mala stavka koja omogućava skladištenje stečenog kapitala (ovo se dobija ako prihvatimo sve kripto pozitivne teze), ali ne rešava problem radnika koji čine 95% društva i doprinose 99% vrednosti a kapitala kontrolišu višestruko manje.
Otkud znam, ono, da rezimiram: kripto je koristan alat koji još nije dostigao svoj vrhunac, ali neće nešto mnogo promeniti svet. To je neko moje viđenje.
@BTCSRB: Kako nije pljačka? Broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti ali ukupan broj novca u opticaju se uvećava i tako obezvređuje tvoje novčanice. Inače, znaš vrlo dobro da fizički keš čini manje od 10% ukupnog novca u opticaju, a ostalo je digitalno. Dakle "money supply" se uvećava pritiskom na dugme tastature računara u FED/ECB/NBS... Neko stvara novac ni iz čega za koji svi moramo da radimo trošeći svoje dragoceno i ograničeno vreme na ovom svetu. Tako nam efektivno krade vreme pošto tvoj radni sat iz prošlosti konstantno može da kupi manje roba i usluga u budućnosti, a zbog tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti bi realno cene trebaju da budu niže vremenom
Kako možeš da porediš fiat, zlato i BTC u tom smislu? Vrednost fiata prevashodno smanjuje ljudska manipulacija sa strane ponude koja se uvek uvećava, dok je potražnja permanentno rastuća zbog zakona o "legal tenderu" i rasta privrede i broja stanovnika. Ovo sa BTC je strana potražnje koju reguliše slobodno tržište dok ukupna ponuda nije podložna ljudskoj manipulaciji. Dugoročno, vrednost zlata i BTC raste sa rastućom potražnjom jer nema manipulacije ponude.
Centralni bankari će optužiti sve druge faktore da bi skrenuli pažnju sa svoje odgovornosti za inflaciju, a za ratove se može reći da su čak i saučesnici pošto tokovi novca mogu utvrditi veoma zanimljivu vezu između njih i vojno-industrijskog kompleksa. Na stranu to, dolarska monetarna masa je samo između februara i aprila 2020. uvećana za 1.39 biliona/triliona što je više nego ukupna monetarna masa iz 2008-09 krize. U krizi 2008-09 su od septembra 2008. do januara 2009. naštampali 803 milijarde i tako uvećali monetarnu masu za 88% sa 909 milijardi na 1712 milijardi - to znači da su 4 meseca naštampali skoro isto novca kao tokom celih 95 prethodnig godina sopstvenog postojanja Federalnih rezervi. Te 2020. su i potpuno ukinuli obavezne rezerve u komercijalnim bankama.
ECB je naštampala 1T evra "zbog kovida". A kao naštampali su jer je bila zatvorena celokupna privreda, pa što ste tako agresivno zatvarali privredu - trebalo je da pustite ljude da rade a ne da se igrate Mao Ce Tunga. I uprkos nezapamćenom štampanju ti isti centralni bankari su nazivali inflaciju "prolaznom" - dakle ni zrnce odgovornosti.
Ako u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, šta reći za komunizam gde ne da nema slobode nego nema ni života pošto su komunistički režimi pobili na desetine miliona ljudi?
Na hipotetičkom BTC standardu zbog fiksne količine novca u opticaju bi se popravio položaj radnika jer kapitalisti ne mogu da beskonačno uvećavaju svoj BTC kapital i kupovna moć i radnika i kapitalista bi procentualno podjednako rasla i običan radnik bi imao mnogo bolje šanse da i sam postane kapitalista nego danas. Imao bi mogućnost da štedi od svoje plate jer mu novac ne bi gubio vrednost i u nekom trenutku bi iz svoje štednje finansirao neki biznis, a ne zaduživanjem. Tako bi se ravnomernije rasporedilo društveno bogatstvo ali ne centralnim planiranjem nego kroz slobodno tržište.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 15:01:30Governor Abbott will have to decide whether to sign the bill establishing a bitcoin reserve for the state.
Texas could become the third U.S. state to set up a strategic bitcoin reserve, following the approval of Senate Bill 21 by the state House, with 101 votes in favor and 42 against.
Lee Bratcher, founder and president of the Texas Blockchain Council, expressed confidence that Governor Greg Abbott will sign the legislative measure. In an interview with The Block, Bratcher said:
“I’ve talked to the governor about this personally, and I think he wants to see Texas lead in this way.”
The bill is expected to reach the governor’s desk within a week or two, according to Bratcher’s projections. If signed, Texas would follow in the footsteps of New Hampshire and Arizona in creating a state-held bitcoin reserve.
Despite Texas ranking as the world’s eighth-largest economy — ahead of many nations — the initial approach to the reserve will be cautious. Bratcher estimates the starting investment will be in the “tens of millions of dollars,” an amount he describes as “modest” for an economy the size of Texas. The responsibility for operational decisions would fall to the state comptroller, who acts as an executive accountant in charge of managing and investing public funds.
“My sense is that it will be in the tens of millions of dollars, which, while it sounds significant, is a very modest amount, for a state the size of Texas.” explained the president of the Texas Blockchain Council.
The road to approval
According to Bratcher, the idea of creating a state bitcoin reserve dates back to 2022 and represents the culmination of years of work by the Texas Blockchain Council. The organization has worked closely with lawmakers who shared the vision of seeing the state accumulate the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Additionally, Texas has long been home to numerous bitcoin mining companies.
The post Texas one step away from a bitcoin reserve: only the governor’s signature is missing appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33
2025-05-24 18:12:47Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit\ enean magna lorem, dignissim et nisl a, iaculis eleifend dolor
uspendisse potenti
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-24 18:01:14Vivek Ramaswamy’s company bets on distressed bitcoin claims as its Bitcoin treasury strategy moves forward.
Strive Enterprises, an asset management firm co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, is exploring the acquisition of distressed bitcoin claims, with particular interest in around 75,000 BTC tied to the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to build a Bitcoin treasury ahead of its planned merger with Asset Entities.
According to a document filed on May 20 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Strive has partnered with 117 Castell Advisory Group to “identify and evaluate” distressed Bitcoin claims with confirmed legal judgments. Among these are approximately 75,000 BTC connected to Mt. Gox, with an estimated market value of $8 billion at current prices.
Essentially, Strive aims to acquire rights to bitcoins currently tied up in legal disputes, which can be purchased at a discount by those willing to take on the risk and wait for eventual recovery.
In a post on X, Strive’s CFO, Ben Pham, stated:
“Strive intends to use all available mechanisms, including novel financial strategies not used by other Bitcoin treasury companies, to maximize its exposure to the asset.”
The company also plans to buy cash at a discount by merging with publicly traded companies holding more cash than their stock value, using the excess funds to purchase additional Bitcoin.
Mt. Gox, the exchange that collapsed in 2014, is currently in the process of repaying creditors, with a deadline set for October 31, 2025.
In its SEC filing, Strive declared:
“This strategy is intended to allow Strive the opportunity to purchase Bitcoin exposure at a discount to market price, enhancing Bitcoin per share and supporting its goal of outperforming Bitcoin over the long run.”
At the beginning of May, Strive announced its merger plan with Asset Entities, a deal that would create the first publicly listed asset management firm focused on Bitcoin. The resulting company aims to join the growing number of firms adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy.
The corporate treasury trend
Strive’s initiative to accumulate bitcoin mirrors that of other companies like Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet. On May 19, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, announced the purchase of an additional 7,390 BTC for $764.9 million, raising its total holdings to 576,230 BTC. On the same day, Metaplanet revealed it had acquired another 1,004 BTC, increasing its total to 7,800 BTC.
The post Bitcoin in Strive’s sights: 75,000 BTC from Mt. Gox among its targets appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-25 15:01:28Bitcoin surpasses gold in the United States: 50 million holders and a dominant role in the global market.
According to a new report by River, for the first time in history, the number of Americans owning bitcoin has surpassed that of gold holders. The analysis reveals that approximately 50 million U.S. citizens currently own the cryptocurrency, while gold owners number 37 million. In fact, 14.3% of Americans own bitcoin, the highest percentage of holders worldwide.
Source: River
The report highlights that 40% of all Bitcoin-focused companies are based in the United States, consolidating America’s dominant position in the sector. Additionally, 40.5% of Bitcoin holders are men aged 31 to 35, followed by 35.9% of men aged 41 to 45. In contrast, only 13.4% of holders are women.
Source: River
Notably, U.S. companies hold 94.8% of all bitcoins owned by publicly traded companies worldwide. According to the report, recent regulatory changes in the U.S. have made the asset more accessible through financial products such as spot ETFs.
The document also shows that American investors increasingly view the cryptocurrency as protection against fiscal instability and inflation, appreciating its limited supply and decentralized governance model.
For River, Bitcoin offers significant practical advantages over gold in the modern digital era. Its ease of custody, cross-border transfer, and liquidity make the cryptocurrency an attractive option for both individual and institutional investors, the report suggests.
The post USA: 50 million Americans own bitcoin appeared first on Atlas21.
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@ eb0157af:77ab6c55
2025-05-24 18:01:13According to the ECB Executive Board member, the launch of the digital euro depends on the timing of the EU regulation.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is making progress in preparing for the digital euro. According to Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board member and coordinator of the project, the technical phase “is proceeding quickly and on schedule,” but moving to operational implementation still requires political approval of the regulation at the European level.
Speaking at the ‘Voices on the Future’ event organized by Ansa and Asvis, Cipollone outlined a possible timeline:
“If the regulation is approved at the start of 2026 — in the best-case scenario for the European legislative process — we could see the first transactions with the digital euro by mid-2028.”
Cipollone also highlighted Europe’s current dependence on electronic payment systems managed by non-European companies:
“Today in Europe, whenever we don’t use cash, any transaction online or at the supermarket has to go through credit cards, with their fees. The payment system relies on companies that aren’t based in Europe. You can see why it would make sense to have a system fully under our control.”
For the ECB board member, the digital euro would act as a direct alternative to cash in the digital world, working like “a banknote you can spend anywhere in Europe for any purpose.”
The digital euro project is part of the ECB’s broader strategy to strengthen the independence of Europe’s financial system. According to Cipollone and the Central Bank, Europe’s digital currency would be a key step toward greater autonomy in electronic payments, reducing reliance on infrastructure and services outside the European Union.
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2025-05-24 18:01:12A new study reveals: 4 out of 5 Americans would like the US to convert some of its gold into Bitcoin.
A recent survey conducted by the Nakamoto Project revealed that a majority of Americans support converting a portion of the United States’ gold reserves into Bitcoin. The survey, carried out online by Qualtrics between February and March 2025, involved 3,345 participants with demographic characteristics representative of US census standards. Most respondents expressed a desire to convert between 1% and 30% of the gold reserves into BTC.
Troy Cross, co-founder of the Nakamoto Project, stated:
“When given a slider and asked to advise the US government on the right proportion of Bitcoin and gold, subjects were very reluctant to put that slider on 0% Bitcoin and 100% gold. Instead, they settled around 10% Bitcoin.”
One significant finding from the research is the correlation between age and openness to Bitcoin: younger respondents showed a greater inclination toward the cryptocurrency compared to older generations.
A potential US strategy
Bo Hines, a White House advisor, is promoting an initiative for the Treasury Department to acquire Bitcoin by selling off a portion of its gold. Under the proposed plan, the government could acquire up to 1 million BTC over the next five years.
To finance these purchases, the government plans to sell Federal Reserve gold certificates. The proposal aligns with Senator Cynthia Lummis’ 2025 Bitcoin Act, which aims to declare Bitcoin a critical national strategic asset.
Currently, the United States holds 8,133 metric tons of gold, valued at over $830 billion, and about 200,000 BTC, valued at $21 billion.
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2025-05-25 15:01:27Michigan lawmakers are unveiling a comprehensive strategy to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
On May 21, Republican Representative Bill Schuette introduced House Bill 4510, a proposal to amend the Michigan Public Employee Retirement System Investment Act. The legislation would allow the state treasurer, currently Rachael Eubanks, to diversify the state’s investments by including cryptocurrencies with an average market capitalization of over $250 million in the past calendar year.
Under current criteria, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are the only cryptocurrencies that meet these selection standards. The proposal specifies that any investment in digital assets must be made through exchange-traded products (spot ETFs) issued by registered investment companies.
Anti-CBDC legislation
Republican Representative Bryan Posthumus is leading the bipartisan initiative behind the second bill, HB 4511, which establishes protections for cryptocurrency holders. The proposal prohibits Michigan from implementing crypto bans or imposing licensing requirements on digital asset holders.
Another key aspect of the legislation is a ban on state officials from supporting or promoting a potential federal central bank digital currency (CBDC). The definition includes the issuance of memorandums or official statements endorsing CBDC proposals related to testing, adoption, or implementation.
Mining and redevelopment of abandoned sites
The third bill, HB 4512, is a proposal led by Democratic Representative Mike McFall for a bipartisan group. This initiative would establish a Bitcoin mining program allowing operators to use abandoned oil and natural gas sites.
The program calls for the appointment of a supervisor tasked with assessing the site’s remaining productive potential, identifying the last operator, and determining the length of abandonment. Prospective participants would need to submit detailed legal documentation of their organizational structure, demonstrate operational expertise in mining, and provide profitability breakeven estimates for their ventures.
The fourth and final bill, HB 4513, also introduced by the bipartisan group led by McFall, focuses on the fiscal aspect of the HB 4512 initiative. The proposal would amend Michigan’s income tax laws to include proceeds generated from the proposed Bitcoin mining program.
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