@ 21335073:a244b1ad

The other day, I had the privilege of sitting down with one of my favorite living artists. Our conversation was so captivating that I felt compelled to share it. I’m leaving his name out for privacy.

Since our last meeting, I’d watched a documentary about his life, one he’d helped create. I told him how much I admired his openness in it. There’s something strange about knowing intimate details of someone’s life when they know so little about yours—it’s almost like I knew him too well for the kind of relationship we have.

He paused, then said quietly, with a shy grin, that watching the documentary made him realize how “odd and eccentric” he is. I laughed and told him he’s probably the sanest person I know. Because he’s lived fully, chasing love, passion, and purpose with hardly any regrets. He’s truly lived.

Today, I turn 44, and I’ll admit I’m a bit eccentric myself. I think I came into the world this way. I’ve made mistakes along the way, but I carry few regrets. Every misstep taught me something. And as I age, I’m not interested in blending in with the world—I’ll probably just lean further into my own brand of “weird.” I want to live life to the brim. The older I get, the more I see that the “normal” folks often seem less grounded than the eccentric artists who dare to live boldly. Life’s too short to just exist, actually live.

I’m not saying to be strange just for the sake of it. But I’ve seen what the crowd celebrates, and I’m not impressed. Forge your own path, even if it feels lonely or unpopular at times.

It’s easy to scroll through the news and feel discouraged. But actually, this is one of the most incredible times to be alive! I wake up every day grateful to be here, now. The future is bursting with possibility—I can feel it.

So, to my fellow weirdos on nostr: stay bold. Keep dreaming, keep pushing, no matter what’s trending. Stay wild enough to believe in a free internet for all. Freedom is radical—hold it tight. Live with the soul of an artist and the grit of a fighter. Thanks for inspiring me and so many others to keep hoping. Thank you all for making the last year of my life so special.

@ 51bbb15e:b77a2290

Yeah, I’m sure everything in the file is legit. 👍 Let’s review the guard witness testimony…Oh wait, they weren’t at their posts despite 24/7 survellience instructions after another Epstein “suicide” attempt two weeks earlier. Well, at least the video of the suicide is in the file? Oh wait, a techical glitch. Damn those coincidences!

At this point, the Trump administration has zero credibility with me on anything related to the Epstein case and his clients. I still suspect the administration is using the Epstein files as leverage to keep a lot of RINOs in line, whereas they’d be sabotaging his agenda at every turn otherwise. However, I just don’t believe in ends-justify-the-means thinking. It’s led almost all of DC to toss out every bit of the values they might once have had.

@ 6389be64:ef439d32

Most nematodes are beneficial and "graze" on black vine weevil, currant borer moth, fungus gnats, other weevils, scarabs, cutworms, webworms, billbugs, mole crickets, termites, peach tree borer and carpenter worm moths.

They also predate bacteria, recycling nutrients back into the soil and by doing so stimulates bacterial activity. They act as microbial taxis by transporting microbes to new locations of soil as they move through it while providing aeration.

https://stacker.news/items/988573

@ c9badfea:610f861a

1. Install Sky Map (it's free and open source)
2. Launch the app and tap Accept, then tap OK
3. When asked to access the device's location, tap While Using The App
4. Tap somewhere on the screen to activate the menu, then tap ⁝ and select Settings
5. Disable Send Usage Statistics
6. Return to the main screen and enjoy stargazing!

ℹ️ Use the 🔍 icon in the upper toolbar to search for a specific celestial body, or tap the 👁️ icon to activate night mode

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

This piece is the first in a series that will focus on things I think are a priority if your focus is similar to mine: building a strong family and safeguarding their future.

---

Choosing the ideal place to raise a family is one of the most significant decisions you will ever make. For simplicity sake I will break down my thought process into key factors: strong property rights, the ability to grow your own food, access to fresh water, the freedom to own and train with guns, and a dependable community.

A Jurisdiction with Strong Property Rights

Strong property rights are essential and allow you to build on a solid foundation that is less likely to break underneath you. Regions with a history of limited government and clear legal protections for landowners are ideal. Personally I think the US is the single best option globally, but within the US there is a wide difference between which state you choose. Choose carefully and thoughtfully, think long term. Obviously if you are not American this is not a realistic option for you, there are other solid options available especially if your family has mobility. I understand many do not have this capability to easily move, consider that your first priority, making movement and jurisdiction choice possible in the first place.

Abundant Access to Fresh Water

Water is life. I cannot overstate the importance of living somewhere with reliable, clean, and abundant freshwater. Some regions face water scarcity or heavy regulations on usage, so prioritizing a place where water is plentiful and your rights to it are protected is critical. Ideally you should have well access so you are not tied to municipal water supplies. In times of crisis or chaos well water cannot be easily shutoff or disrupted. If you live in an area that is drought prone, you are one drought away from societal chaos. Not enough people appreciate this simple fact.

Grow Your Own Food

A location with fertile soil, a favorable climate, and enough space for a small homestead or at the very least a garden is key. In stable times, a small homestead provides good food and important education for your family. In times of chaos your family being able to grow and raise healthy food provides a level of self sufficiency that many others will lack. Look for areas with minimal restrictions, good weather, and a culture that supports local farming.

Guns

The ability to defend your family is fundamental. A location where you can legally and easily own guns is a must. Look for places with a strong gun culture and a political history of protecting those rights. Owning one or two guns is not enough and without proper training they will be a liability rather than a benefit. Get comfortable and proficient. Never stop improving your skills. If the time comes that you must use a gun to defend your family, the skills must be instinct. Practice. Practice. Practice.

A Strong Community You Can Depend On

No one thrives alone. A ride or die community that rallies together in tough times is invaluable. Seek out a place where people know their neighbors, share similar values, and are quick to lend a hand. Lead by example and become a good neighbor, people will naturally respond in kind. Small towns are ideal, if possible, but living outside of a major city can be a solid balance in terms of work opportunities and family security.

---

Let me know if you found this helpful. My plan is to break down how I think about these five key subjects in future posts.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Here’s a revised timeline of macro-level events from The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver, reimagined in a world where Bitcoin is adopted as a widely accepted form of money, altering the original narrative’s assumptions about currency collapse and economic control. In Shriver’s original story, the failure of Bitcoin is assumed amid the dominance of the bancor and the dollar’s collapse. Here, Bitcoin’s success reshapes the economic and societal trajectory, decentralizing power and challenging state-driven outcomes.

Part One: 2029–2032

• 2029 (Early Year)\ The United States faces economic strain as the dollar weakens against global shifts. However, Bitcoin, having gained traction emerges as a viable alternative. Unlike the original timeline, the bancor—a supranational currency backed by a coalition of nations—struggles to gain footing as Bitcoin’s decentralized adoption grows among individuals and businesses worldwide, undermining both the dollar and the bancor.

• 2029 (Mid-Year: The Great Renunciation)\ Treasury bonds lose value, and the government bans Bitcoin, labeling it a threat to sovereignty (mirroring the original bancor ban). However, a Bitcoin ban proves unenforceable—its decentralized nature thwarts confiscation efforts, unlike gold in the original story. Hyperinflation hits the dollar as the U.S. prints money, but Bitcoin’s fixed supply shields adopters from currency devaluation, creating a dual-economy split: dollar users suffer, while Bitcoin users thrive.

• 2029 (Late Year)\ Dollar-based inflation soars, emptying stores of goods priced in fiat currency. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transactions flourish in underground and online markets, stabilizing trade for those plugged into the bitcoin ecosystem. Traditional supply chains falter, but peer-to-peer Bitcoin networks enable local and international exchange, reducing scarcity for early adopters. The government’s gold confiscation fails to bolster the dollar, as Bitcoin’s rise renders gold less relevant.

• 2030–2031\ Crime spikes in dollar-dependent urban areas, but Bitcoin-friendly regions see less chaos, as digital wallets and smart contracts facilitate secure trade. The U.S. government doubles down on surveillance to crack down on bitcoin use. A cultural divide deepens: centralized authority weakens in Bitcoin-adopting communities, while dollar zones descend into lawlessness.

• 2032\ By this point, Bitcoin is de facto legal tender in parts of the U.S. and globally, especially in tech-savvy or libertarian-leaning regions. The federal government’s grip slips as tax collection in dollars plummets—Bitcoin’s traceability is low, and citizens evade fiat-based levies. Rural and urban Bitcoin hubs emerge, while the dollar economy remains fractured.

Time Jump: 2032–2047

• Over 15 years, Bitcoin solidifies as a global reserve currency, eroding centralized control. The U.S. government adapts, grudgingly integrating bitcoin into policy, though regional autonomy grows as Bitcoin empowers local economies.

Part Two: 2047

• 2047 (Early Year)\ The U.S. is a hybrid state: Bitcoin is legal tender alongside a diminished dollar. Taxes are lower, collected in BTC, reducing federal overreach. Bitcoin’s adoption has decentralized power nationwide. The bancor has faded, unable to compete with Bitcoin’s grassroots momentum.

• 2047 (Mid-Year)\ Travel and trade flow freely in Bitcoin zones, with no restrictive checkpoints. The dollar economy lingers in poorer areas, marked by decay, but Bitcoin’s dominance lifts overall prosperity, as its deflationary nature incentivizes saving and investment over consumption. Global supply chains rebound, powered by bitcoin enabled efficiency.

• 2047 (Late Year)\ The U.S. is a patchwork of semi-autonomous zones, united by Bitcoin’s universal acceptance rather than federal control. Resource scarcity persists due to past disruptions, but economic stability is higher than in Shriver’s original dystopia—Bitcoin’s success prevents the authoritarian slide, fostering a freer, if imperfect, society.

Key Differences

• Currency Dynamics: Bitcoin’s triumph prevents the bancor’s dominance and mitigates hyperinflation’s worst effects, offering a lifeline outside state control.
• Government Power: Centralized authority weakens as Bitcoin evades bans and taxation, shifting power to individuals and communities.
• Societal Outcome: Instead of a surveillance state, 2047 sees a decentralized, bitcoin driven world—less oppressive, though still stratified between Bitcoin haves and have-nots.

This reimagining assumes Bitcoin overcomes Shriver’s implied skepticism to become a robust, adopted currency by 2029, fundamentally altering the novel’s bleak trajectory.

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

I’ve written about MSTR twice already, https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr and https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr-part-2, but I want to focus on legendary short seller James Chanos’ current trade wherein he buys bitcoin (via ETF) and shorts MSTR, in essence to “be like Mike” Saylor who sells MSTR shares at the market and uses them to add bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet. After all, if it’s good enough for Saylor, why shouldn’t everyone be doing it — shorting a company whose stock price is more than 2x its bitcoin holdings and using the proceeds to buy the bitcoin itself?

Saylor himself has said selling shares at 2x NAV (net asset value) to buy bitcoin is like selling dollars for two dollars each, and Chanos has apparently decided to get in while the getting (market cap more than 2x net asset value) is good. If the price of bitcoin moons, sending MSTR’s shares up, you are more than hedged in that event, too. At least that’s the theory.

The problem with this bet against MSTR’s mNAV, i.e., you are betting MSTR’s market cap will converge 1:1 toward its NAV in the short and medium term is this trade does not exist in a vacuum. Saylor has described how his ATM’s (at the market) sales of shares are accretive in BTC per share because of this very premium they carry. Yes, we’ll dilute your shares of the company, but because we’re getting you 2x the bitcoin per share, you are getting an ever smaller slice of an ever bigger overall pie, and the pie is growing 2x faster than your slice is reducing. (I https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr how this works in my first post.)

But for this accretion to continue, there must be a constant supply of “greater fools” to pony up for the infinitely printable shares which contain only half their value in underlying bitcoin. Yes, those shares will continue to accrete more BTC per share, but only if there are more fools willing to make this trade in the future. So will there be a constant supply of such “fools” to keep fueling MSTR’s mNAV multiple indefinitely?

Yes, there will be in my opinion because you have to look at the trade from the prospective fools’ perspective. Those “fools” are not trading bitcoin for MSTR, they are trading their dollars, selling other equities to raise them maybe, but in the end it’s a dollars for shares trade. They are not selling bitcoin for them.

You might object that those same dollars could buy bitcoin instead, so they are surely trading the opportunity cost of buying bitcoin for them, but if only 5-10 percent of the market (or less) is buying bitcoin itself, the bucket in which which those “fools” reside is the entire non-bitcoin-buying equity market. (And this is not considering the even larger debt market which Saylor has yet to tap in earnest.)

So for those 90-95 percent who do not and are not presently planning to own bitcoin itself, is buying MSTR a fool’s errand, so to speak? Not remotely. If MSTR shares are infinitely printable ATM, they are still less so than the dollar and other fiat currencies. And MSTR shares are backed 2:1 by bitcoin itself, while the fiat currencies are backed by absolutely nothing. So if you hold dollars or euros, trading them for MSTR shares is an errand more sage than foolish.

That’s why this trade (buying BTC and shorting MSTR) is so dangerous. Not only are there many people who won’t buy BTC buying MSTR, there are many funds and other investment entities who are only able to buy MSTR.

Do you want to get BTC at 1:1 with the 5-10 percent or MSTR backed 2:1 with the 90-95 percent. This is a bit like medical tests that have a 95 percent accuracy rate for an asymptomatic disease that only one percent of the population has. If someone tests positive, it’s more likely to be a false one than an indication he has the disease*. The accuracy rate, even at 19:1, is subservient to the size of the respective populations.

At some point this will no longer be the case, but so long as the understanding of bitcoin is not widespread, so long as the dollar is still the unit of account, the “greater fools” buying MSTR are still miles ahead of the greatest fools buying neither, and the stock price and mNAV should only increase.

. . .

One other thought: it’s more work to play defense than offense because the person on offense knows where he’s going, and the defender can only react to him once he moves. Similarly, Saylor by virtue of being the issuer of the shares knows when more will come online while Chanos and other short sellers are borrowing them to sell in reaction to Saylor’s strategy. At any given moment, Saylor can pause anytime, choosing to issue convertible debt or preferred shares with which to buy more bitcoin, and the shorts will not be given advance notice.

If the price runs, and there is no ATM that week because Saylor has stopped on a dime, so to speak, the shorts will be left having to scramble to change directions and buy the shares back to cover. Their momentum might be in the wrong direction, though, and like Allen Iverson breaking ankles with a crossover, Saylor might trigger a massive short squeeze, rocketing the share price ever higher. That’s why he actually welcomes Chanos et al trying this copycat strategy — it becomes the fuel for outsized gains.

For that reason, news that Chanos is shorting MSTR has not shaken my conviction, though there are other more pertinent https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr-part-2 with MSTR, of which one should be aware. And as always, do your own due diligence before investing in anything.

* To understand this, consider a population of 100,000, with one percent having a disease. That means 1,000 have it, 99,000 do not. If the test is 95 percent accurate, and everyone is tested, 950 of the 1,000 will test positive (true positives), 50 who have it will test negative (false negatives.) Of the positives, 95 percent of 99,000 (94,050) will test negative (true negatives) and five percent (4,950) will test positive (false positives). That means 4,950 out of 5,900 positives (84%) will be false.

@ 5144fe88:9587d5af

The recent anomalies in the financial market and the frequent occurrence of world trade wars and hot wars have caused the world's political and economic landscape to fluctuate violently. It always feels like the financial crisis is getting closer and closer.

This is a systematic analysis of the possibility of the current global financial crisis by Manus based on Ray Dalio's latest views, US and Japanese economic and financial data, Buffett's investment behavior, and historical financial crises.

Research shows that the current financial system has many preconditions for a crisis, especially debt levels, market valuations, and investor behavior, which show obvious crisis signals. The probability of a financial crisis in the short term (within 6-12 months) is 30%-40%,

in the medium term (within 1-2 years) is 50%-60%,

in the long term (within 2-3 years) is 60%-70%.

Japan's role as the world's largest holder of overseas assets and the largest creditor of the United States is particularly critical. The sharp appreciation of the yen may be a signal of the return of global safe-haven funds, which will become an important precursor to the outbreak of a financial crisis.

Potential conditions for triggering a financial crisis Conditions that have been met 1. High debt levels: The debt-to-GDP ratio of the United States and Japan has reached a record high. 2. Market overvaluation: The ratio of stock market to GDP hits a record high 3. Abnormal investor behavior: Buffett's cash holdings hit a record high, with net selling for 10 consecutive quarters 4. Monetary policy shift: Japan ends negative interest rates, and the Fed ends the rate hike cycle 5. Market concentration is too high: a few technology stocks dominate market performance

Potential trigger points 1. The Bank of Japan further tightens monetary policy, leading to a sharp appreciation of the yen and the return of overseas funds 2. The US debt crisis worsens, and the proportion of interest expenses continues to rise to unsustainable levels 3. The bursting of the technology bubble leads to a collapse in market confidence 4. The trade war further escalates, disrupting global supply chains and economic growth 5. Japan, as the largest creditor of the United States, reduces its holdings of US debt, causing US debt yields to soar

---

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Analysis of the similarities and differences between the current economic environment and the historical financial crisis Debt level comparison Current debt situation • US government debt to GDP ratio: 124.0% (December 2024) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: 216.2% (December 2024), historical high 225.8% (March 2021) • US total debt: 36.21 trillion US dollars (May 2025) • Japanese debt/GDP ratio: more than 250%-263% (Japanese Prime Minister’s statement)

Before the 2008 financial crisis • US government debt to GDP ratio: about 64% (2007) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: about 175% (2007)

Before the Internet bubble in 2000 • US government debt to GDP ratio: about 55% (1999) • Japanese government debt to GDP ratio: about 130% (1999)

Key differences • The current US debt-to-GDP ratio is nearly twice that before the 2008 crisis • The current Japanese debt-to-GDP ratio is more than 1.2 times that before the 2008 crisis • Global debt levels are generally higher than historical pre-crisis levels • US interest payments are expected to devour 30% of fiscal revenue (Moody's warning)

Monetary policy and interest rate environment

Current situation • US 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.6% (May 2025) • Bank of Japan policy: end negative interest rates and start a rate hike cycle • Bank of Japan's holdings of government bonds: 52%, plans to reduce purchases to 3 trillion yen per month by January-March 2026 • Fed policy: end the rate hike cycle and prepare to cut interest rates

Before the 2008 financial crisis • US 10-year Treasury yield: about 4.5%-5% (2007) • Fed policy: continuous rate hikes from 2004 to 2006, and rate cuts began in 2007 • Bank of Japan policy: maintain ultra-low interest rates

Key differences • Current US interest rates are similar to those before the 2008 crisis, but debt levels are much higher than then • Japan is in the early stages of ending its loose monetary policy, unlike before historical crises • The size of global central bank balance sheets is far greater than at any time in history

Market valuations and investor behavior Current situation • The ratio of stock market value to the size of the US economy: a record high • Buffett's cash holdings: $347 billion (28% of assets), a record high • Market concentration: US stock growth mainly relies on a few technology giants • Investor sentiment: Technology stocks are enthusiastic, but institutional investors are beginning to be cautious

Before the 2008 financial crisis • Buffett's cash holdings: 25% of assets (2005) • Market concentration: Financial and real estate-related stocks performed strongly • Investor sentiment: The real estate market was overheated and subprime products were widely popular

Before the 2000 Internet bubble • Buffett's cash holdings: increased from 1% to 13% (1998) • Market concentration: Internet stocks were extremely highly valued • Investor sentiment: Tech stocks are in a frenzy

Key differences • Buffett's current cash holdings exceed any pre-crisis level in history • Market valuation indicators have reached a record high, exceeding the levels before the 2000 bubble and the 2008 crisis • The current market concentration is higher than any period in history, and a few technology stocks dominate market performance

Safe-haven fund flows and international relations Current situation • The status of the yen: As a safe-haven currency, the appreciation of the yen may indicate a rise in global risk aversion • Trade relations: The United States has imposed tariffs on Japan, which is expected to reduce Japan's GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points in fiscal 2025 • International debt: Japan is one of the largest creditors of the United States

Before historical crises • Before the 2008 crisis: International capital flows to US real estate and financial products • Before the 2000 bubble: International capital flows to US technology stocks

Key differences • Current trade frictions have intensified and the trend of globalization has weakened • Japan's role as the world's largest holder of overseas assets has become more prominent • International debt dependence is higher than any period in history

@ 1c5ff3ca:efe9c0f6

Auto-Deployment on a VPS with GitHub Actions

Introduction

This tutorial describes how you can deploy an application on a VPS using GitHub Actions. This way, changes in your GitHub repository are automatically deployed to your VPS.

Prerequisites

• GitHub Account
• GitHub Repository
• Server + SSH access to the server

Step 1 - SSH Login to Server

Open a terminal and log in via SSH. Then navigate to the .ssh directory

ssh user@hostname cd ~/.ssh

Step 2 - Create an SSH Key

Now create a new SSH key that we will use for auto-deployment. In the following dialog, simply press "Enter" repeatedly until the key is created.

ssh-keygen -t ed25519 -C "service-name-deploy-github"

Step 3 - Add the Key to the authorized_keys File

cat id_ed25519.pub >> authorized_keys

(If you named the key file differently, change this accordingly)

Step 4 - GitHub Secrets

In order for the GitHub Action to perform the deployment later, some secrets must be stored in the repository. Open the repository on GitHub. Navigate to "Settings" -> "Secrets And Variables" -> "Actions". Add the following variables:

• HOST: Hostname or IP address of the server
• USERNAME: Username you use to log in via SSH
• SSHKEY: The private key (copy the content from cat ~/.ssh/id_ed25519)
• PORT: 22

Step 5 - Create the GitHub Action

Now create the GitHub Action for auto-deployment. The following GitHub Action will be used: https://github.com/appleboy/scp-action In your local repository, create the file .github/workflows/deploy.yml:

```yaml name: Deploy on: [push] jobs: build: runs-on: ubuntu-latest steps: - uses: actions/checkout@v1 - name: Copy repository content via scp uses: appleboy/scp-action@master with: host: ${{ secrets.HOST }} username: ${{ secrets.USERNAME }} port: ${{ secrets.PORT }} key: ${{ secrets.SSHKEY }} source: "." target: "/your-target-directory"

- name: Executing a remote command
  uses: appleboy/ssh-action@master
  with:
    host: ${{ secrets.HOST }}
    username: ${{ secrets.USERNAME }}
    port: ${{ secrets.PORT }}
    key: ${{ secrets.SSHKEY }}
    script: |
      ls

```

This action copies the repository files to your server using scp. Afterwards, the ls command is executed. Here you can add appropriate commands that rebuild your service or similar. To rebuild and start a docker service you could use something like this or similar: docker compose -f target-dir/docker-compose.yml up --build -d Now commit this file and in the "Actions" tab of your repository, the newly created action should now be visible and executed. With every future change, the git repository will now be automatically copied to your server.

Sources

I read this when trying out, but it did not work and I adapted the deploy.yml file: https://dev.to/knowbee/how-to-setup-continuous-deployment-of-a-website-on-a-vps-using-github-actions-54im

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

In our culture today, people like to have “my truth” as opposed to “your truth.” They want to have teachers who tell them what they want to hear and worship in the way they desire. The Bible predicted these times.

For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear. (2 Timothy 4:3)

My question is, “do we get to choose what we want to believe about God and how we want to worship Him, or does God tell us what we are to believe and how we are to worship Him?”

The Bible makes it clear that He is who He says He is and He expects obedience and worship according to His commands. We do not get to decide for ourselves.

The woman said to Him, “Sir, I perceive that You are a prophet. Our fathers worshiped in this mountain, and you people say that in Jerusalem is the place where men ought to worship.” Jesus said to her, “Woman, believe Me, an hour is coming when neither in this mountain nor in Jerusalem will you worship the Father. You worship what you do not know; we worship what we know, for salvation is from the Jews. But an hour is coming, and now is, when the true worshipers will worship the Father in spirit and truth; for such people the Father seeks to be His worshipers. God is spirit, and those who worship Him must worship in spirit and truth.” (John 4:19-24) {emphasis mine}

In this passage, Jesus gently corrects the woman for worshipping what she does not know. He also says, “God is spirit, and those who worship Him must worship in spirit and truth.” He states what God is (spirit) and how He must be worshipped “in spirit and truth.” We don’t get to define God however we wish, and we don’t get to worship Him any way we wish. God is who He has revealed Himself to be and we must obey Him and worship Him the way He has commanded.

In this next passage, God makes clear that He is holy and we do not get to worship Him any way we wish. We are to interact with Him in the prescribed manner.

Now Nadab and Abihu, the sons of Aaron, took their respective firepans, and after putting fire in them, placed incense on it and offered strange fire before the Lord, which He had not commanded them. And fire came out from the presence of the Lord and consumed them, and they died before the Lord. Then Moses said to Aaron, “It is what the Lord spoke, saying,

‘By those who come near Me I will be treated as holy,\ And before all the people I will be honored.’ ”

So Aaron, therefore, kept silent. (Leviticus 10:1-3) {emphasis mine}

God had prescribed a particular way to approach Him and only those whom He had chosen (priests of the lineage of Aaron). Nadab and Abihu chose to “do it their way” and paid the price for ignoring God’s command. God set an example with them.

God has been gracious enough to reveal Himself, His character, His power, and His commands to us. If we have truly submitted ourselves to His rule, we should hunger for God’s words so we can know Him better and honor Him in obedience.

But now I come to You; and these things I speak in the world so that they may have My joy made full in themselves. I have given them Your word; and the world has hated them, because they are not of the world, even as I am not of the world. I do not ask You to take them out of the world, but to keep them from the evil one. They are not of the world, even as I am not of the world. Sanctify them in the truth; Your word is truth. (John 17:13-17) {emphasis mine}

In today’s culture, everybody likes to claim their own personal truth, but that isn’t how truth works. The truth is not determined by an individual for themselves. It isn’t even determined by a consensus or majority vote. The truth is the truth even if not one person on earth believes it. God speaks truth and God is truth. Our belief or lack thereof doesn’t change the truth, but our lack of belief in the truth, especially the truth as revealed by God in His word, can negatively affect our relationship with God.

God expects us to study His word so we can obey His commands.

For I did not speak to your fathers, or command them in the day that I brought them out of the land of Egypt, concerning burnt offerings and sacrifices. But this is what I commanded them, saying, ‘Obey My voice, and I will be your God, and you will be My people; and you will walk in all the way which I command you, that it may be well with you.’ Yet they did not obey or incline their ear, but walked in their own counsels and in the stubbornness of their evil heart, and went backward and not forward. Since the day that your fathers came out of the land of Egypt until this day, I have sent you all My servants the prophets, daily rising early and sending them. Yet they did not listen to Me or incline their ear, but stiffened their neck; they did more evil than their fathers. (Jeremiah 7:22-26) {emphasis mine}

Today you rarely see someone bowing down to a golden idol, but that doesn’t mean that we are any better at obeying God’s commands or submitting to His will. We still try to make God in our own image so He is a convenience to us and how we want to live our lives. We still put other things ahead of God — family, work, entertainment, fame, etc. Most of us aren’t any more faithful to God than the Israelites were. Just like the Israelites, we put on the trappings of faith but don’t live according to faith and faithfulness.

And He said to them, “Rightly did Isaiah prophesy of you hypocrites, as it is written:

‘This people honors Me with their lips,\ But their heart is far away from Me.\ **But in vain do they worship Me,\ Teaching as doctrines the precepts of men.’\ Neglecting the commandment of God, you hold to the tradition of men.”

He was also saying to them, “You are experts at setting aside the commandment of God in order to keep your tradition. (Mark 7:6-9) {emphasis mine}

How many “churches” and “Christian” leaders teach people according to the culture instead of according to the Word of God? How many tell people what they want to hear and what makes them feel good instead of what they need to hear — the truth as spoken through the Bible? How many church attenders follow a “Christian” leader more than they follow their Creator, Savior, and God? How many church attenders can recite the words of their leaders better than the Holy Scriptures?

I solemnly charge you in the presence of God and of Christ Jesus, who is to judge the living and the dead, and by His appearing and His kingdom: preach the word; be ready in season and out of season; reprove, rebuke, exhort, with great patience and instruction. For the time will come when they will not endure sound doctrine; but wanting to have their ears tickled, they will accumulate for themselves teachers in accordance to their own desires, and will turn away their ears from the truth and will turn aside to myths. But you, be sober in all things, endure hardship, do the work of an evangelist, fulfill your ministry. (2 Timothy 4:1-5) {emphasis mine}

How can we know if a church leader is rightly preaching God’s word? We can only know if we have read the Bible and studied it. We should be like the Bereans:

Now these were more noble-minded than those in Thessalonica, for they received the word with great eagerness, examining the Scriptures daily to see whether these things were so. (Acts 17:11)

Honestly, I don’t trust any spiritual leader who doesn’t encourage me to search the Scriptures to see whether their words are true. Any leader who puts their own word above the Scriptures is a false teacher. Sadly there are many, maybe more than faithful teachers. Some false teachers are intentionally so, but many have been misled by other false teachers. Their guilt is less, but they don’t do any less harm than those who intentionally mislead.

We need to seek trustworthy teachers who speak according to the Word of God, who quote the Bible to support their opinions, and who seek the good of their followers rather than the submission of their followers.

Do not harden your hearts, as at Meribah,\ As in the day of Massah in the wilderness,

“When your fathers tested Me,\ They tried Me, though they had seen My work.\ For forty years I loathed that generation,\ And said they are a people who err in their heart,\ And they do not know My ways.\ Therefore I swore in My anger,\ Truly they shall not enter into My rest.” (Psalm 95:8-11) {emphasis mine} *Teach me good discernment and knowledge,\ For I believe in Your commandments*.\ Before I was afflicted I went astray,\ But now I keep Your word.\ You are good and do good;\ Teach me Your statutes.\ The arrogant have forged a lie against me;\ *With all my heart I will observe Your precepts*.\ Their heart is covered with fat,\ But I delight in Your law.\ It is good for me that I was afflicted,\ That I may learn Your statutes.\ The law of Your mouth is better to me\ Than thousands of gold and silver pieces. (Psalm 119:66-72) {emphasis mine}

May our Creator God teach us the truth. May He fill our hearts with the desire to be in His word daily and to seek His will. May He do what is necessary to get our attention and turn our hearts and minds fully to Him, so we can learn His statutes and serve Him faithfully, so one day we are blessed to hear, “Well done! Good and faithful servant.”

Trust Jesus.

FYI, I see lack of knowledge of truth and God’s word as one of the biggest problems in the church today; however, it is possible to know the Bible in depth, but not know God. As important as knowledge of Scriptures is, this knowledge (without faith, submission, obedience, and love) is meaningless. Knowledge doesn’t get us to heaven. Even obedience doesn’t get us to heaven. Only faith and submission to our creator God leads to salvation and heaven. That being said, we can’t faithfully serve our God without knowledge of Him and His commands. Out of gratefulness for who He is and what He has done for us, we should seek to know and please Him.

@ fa984bd7:58018f52

This post has been deleted.

@ 06639a38:655f8f71

Nostr-PHP

Djuri submitted quite some pull requests in the last couple of week while he was implementing a Nostr connect / login on https://satsback.com. The backend of that platform is written in PHP so the Nostr-PHP library is used for several purposes while Djuri also developed quite some new features utilizing the following NIPs:

• NIP-04
• NIP-05
• NIP-17
• NIP-44

Thank you very much Djuri for these contributions. We now can do the basic private stuff with the library. 

PR for NIP-04 and NIP-44: https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/pull/84 and https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/pull/88 
Examples:

• https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/blob/main/src/Examples/nip04-encrypted-messages.php
• https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/blob/main/src/Examples/nip44-gift-wrapping.php

PR for NIP-05: https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/pull/89 
Example: https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/blob/main/src/Examples/nip05-lookup.php 

PR for NIP-17: https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/pull/90 
Example: https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/blob/main/src/Examples/nip17-private-direct-messages.php 

PR for adding more metadata profile fields: https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/pull/94
Example: https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/blob/main/src/Examples/fetch-profile-metadata.php 

Fetch 10050 event (dm relay list) of an given pubkey
Example: https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/blob/main/src/Examples/fetch-dm-relayslist.php 

The CLI tool is removed from the library, see PR https://github.com/nostrver-se/nostr-php/pull/93 

Nostr-PHP documentation

While new NIPs are implemented in the Nostr-PHP library, I'm trying to keep up with the documentation at https://nostr-php.dev. For now, things are still much work in progress and I've added the AI agent Goose using the Claude LLM to bootstrap new documentation pages. Currently I'm working on documentation for

• How to direct messages with NIP-04 and NIP-17
• Encrypted payloads for event content NIP-44
• Fetch profiledata of a given pubkey
• Lookup NIP-05 data of given pubkey
• Using the NIP-19 helper class

CCNS.news

I've moved CCNS to a new domain https://ccns.news and have partly implemented the new NIP-B0 for web bookmarks. When you post a bookmark there, a kind 39701 event is transmitted to some Nostr relays (take a look at this event for example). Optionally you can also publish this content as a note to the network.

As you can see at https://ccns.news/l/censorship-resistant-publishing-and-archiving, I've listed some todo's. All this stuff is done with Javascript using the NDK Typescript library (so I'm not using any PHP stuff for this with Nostr-PHP).

Also new: https://ccns.news/global now has a global feed which fetches all the web bookmark events with kind 39701 from several public Nostr relays. I had a rough idea to compare feeds generated with NDK and Nostr-PHP (for both using the same set of relays).

Building a njump clone for this Drupal website

You can now use this URL pattern to fetch Nostr events: https://nostrver.se/e/{event_id|nevent1|note1|addr1} where you can provide a plain Nostr event ID or NIP-19 encoded identifier. 

An example, this URL https://nostrver.se/e/nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqmjxss3dld622uu8q25gywum9qtg4w4cv4064jmg20xsac2aam5nqqsqm2lz4ru6wlydzpulgs8m60ylp4vufwsg55whlqgua6a93vp2y4g3uu9lr fetches the data from one or more relays. This data is then being saved as a (Drupal) node entity (in a database on the server where this website is hosted, which is located in my office fyi). With this saved node, this data is now also available at https://nostrver.se/e/0dabe2a8f9a77c8d1079f440fbd3c9f0d59c4ba08a51d7f811ceeba58b02a255/1 where the (cached) data is server from the database instead. It's just raw data for now, nothing special about it. One of my next steps is to style this in a more prettier interface and I will need to switch the theme of this website to a custom theme. A custom theme where I will be using TailwindCSS v4 and DaisyUI v5. 

The module which is providing these Nostr features is FOSS and uses the Nostr-PHP library for doing the following:

• Request the event from one or more relays
• Decode the provided NIP-19 identifier

For now this module is way for me to utilize the Nostr-PHP library with Drupal for fetching events. This can be automated so in theory I could index all the Nostr events. But this is not my ambition as it would require quite some hardware resources to accomplish this. 
I hope I can find the time to build up a new theme first for this website, so I can start styling the data for the fetched events. On this website, there is also a small piece (powered by another module) you can find at https://nostrver.se/nostrides doing things with this NIP-113 around activity events (in my case that's cycling what interests me).

What's next

I'm already working on the following stuff:

• Implement a class to setup a persistent connection to a relay for requesting events continuously
• Extend the documentation with the recent added features

Other todo stuff:

• Review NIP-13 proof-of-work PR from Djuri
• Implement a NIP-65 lookup for fetching read and write relays for a given npub issue #91
• Build a proof-of-concept with revolt/event-loop to request events asynchronous with persistent relay connections
• Add comments to https://ccns.news

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

I’m Derek Ross, and I’m all-in on Nostr.

I started the Grow Nostr Initiative to help more people discover what makes Nostr so powerful: ✅ You own your identity ✅ You choose your social graph and algorithms ✅ You aren't locked into any single app or platform ✅ You can post, stream, chat, and build, all without gatekeepers

What we’re doing with Grow Nostr Initiative: 🌱 Hosting local meetups and mini-conferences to onboard people face-to-face 📚 Creating educational materials and guides to demystify how Nostr works 🧩 Helping businesses and creators understand how they can plug into Nostr (running media servers, relays, and using key management tools)

I believe Nostr is the foundation of a more open internet. It’s still early, but we’re already seeing incredible apps for social, blogging, podcasting, livestreaming, and more. And the best part is that they're all interoperable, censorship-resistant, and built on open standards. Nostr is the world's largest bitcoin economy by transaction volume and I truly believe that the purple pill helps the orange pill go down. Meaning, growing Nostr will also grow Bitcoin adoption.

If you’ve been curious about Nostr or are building something on it, or let’s talk. Whether you're just getting started or you're already deep in the ecosystem, I'm here to answer questions, share what I’ve learned, and hear your ideas. Check out https://nostrapps.com to find your next social decentralized experience.

Ask Me Anything about GNI, Nostr, Bitcoin, the upcoming #NosVegas event at the Bitcoin Conference next week, etc.!

– Derek Ross 🌐 https://grownostr.org npub18ams6ewn5aj2n3wt2qawzglx9mr4nzksxhvrdc4gzrecw7n5tvjqctp424

https://stacker.news/items/984689

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

There is something quietly rebellious about stacking sats. In a world obsessed with instant gratification, choosing to patiently accumulate Bitcoin, one sat at a time, feels like a middle finger to the hype machine. But to do it right, you have got to stay humble. Stack too hard with your head in the clouds, and you will trip over your own ego before the next halving even hits.

Small Wins

Stacking sats is not glamorous. Discipline. Stacking every day, week, or month, no matter the price, and letting time do the heavy lifting. Humility lives in that consistency. You are not trying to outsmart the market or prove you are the next "crypto" prophet. Just a regular person, betting on a system you believe in, one humble stack at a time. Folks get rekt chasing the highs. They ape into some shitcoin pump, shout about it online, then go silent when they inevitably get rekt. The ones who last? They stack. Just keep showing up. Consistency. Humility in action. Know the game is long, and you are not bigger than it.

Ego is Volatile

Bitcoin’s swings can mess with your head. One day you are up 20%, feeling like a genius and the next down 30%, questioning everything. Ego will have you panic selling at the bottom or over leveraging the top. Staying humble means patience, a true bitcoin zen. Do not try to "beat” Bitcoin. Ride it. Stack what you can afford, live your life, and let compounding work its magic.

Simplicity

There is a beauty in how stacking sats forces you to rethink value. A sat is worth less than a penny today, but every time you grab a few thousand, you plant a seed. It is not about flaunting wealth but rather building it, quietly, without fanfare. That mindset spills over. Cut out the noise: the overpriced coffee, fancy watches, the status games that drain your wallet. Humility is good for your soul and your stack. I have a buddy who has been stacking since 2015. Never talks about it unless you ask. Lives in a decent place, drives an old truck, and just keeps stacking. He is not chasing clout, he is chasing freedom. That is the vibe: less ego, more sats, all grounded in life.

The Big Picture

Stack those sats. Do it quietly, do it consistently, and do not let the green days puff you up or the red days break you down. Humility is the secret sauce, it keeps you grounded while the world spins wild. In a decade, when you look back and smile, it will not be because you shouted the loudest. It will be because you stayed the course, one sat at a time. \ \ Stay Humble and Stack Sats. 🫡

@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

'The Cantillon Effect: When new money is printed, those closest to the source (banks, elites) benefit first, buying assets before prices rise. Others lose purchasing power as inflation hits later. If people find out how this works, they will riot.' -Bitcoin for Freedom

Just think about it. Your employer gives you a 5% raise. The Fed (central banks in general) prints 7% more dollars/euros/Fiat. You just got a 2% pay cut. This isn't a conspiracy theory. This is how fiat money steals from the working class every single day. This is why I support Bitcoin.

Anilsaidso: 'Saving in fiat currency is no longer an option. A 2% inflation rate means you lose 1/3 of your purchasing power over 20yrs. At 5% inflation, you lose 60%. And at 10% you've burnt 85%. Reduce your uncertainty. Save in Bitcoin.' https://i.ibb.co/N661BdVp/Gr-Rwdg-OXc-AAWPVE.jpg

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

“Education increases conviction.

Conviction increases allocation.

Allocation increases freedom.” —Gigi

https://i.ibb.co/Q3trHk8Y/Gr-Arv-Ioa-AAAF5b0.jpg

On the 12th of May:

➡️Google searches for "Digital Gold" are at all-time highs. Bitcoin Croesus: "This is the second wave of the Digital Revolution - the digitization of value to complement the Internet's digitization of information. It wasn't possible to own a slice of the Internet itself, but it is possible with Bitcoin, the internet of value." "...It feels like you're late to Bitcoin. But this is a bigger game playing out than most realize, and we are much earlier than casual observers know. If you're reading this, you're here on the frontier early. And you have a chance to stake a claim before 99% of the world shows up. This is a land grab. This is the digital gold rush. Make your descendants proud."

https://i.ibb.co/5XXbNQ8S/Gqw-X4-QRWs-AEd5-Uh-1.jpg

➡️ 'A new holding company ‘Nakamoto’ just raised $710 million to buy more Bitcoin and will merge with KindlyMD to establish a Bitcoin Treasury company. Saylor playbook!' - Bitcoin Archive

➡️American Bitcoin, backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, will go public via an all-stock merger with Gryphon Digital Mining. Post-merger, Trump affiliates and Hut 8 will retain 98% ownership. GRYP tripled to $2.19, Hut 8 jumped 11% to $15.45. The deal closes in Q3 2025.

➡️Phoenix Wallet: 'Phoenix 0.6.0 is out: offers can now have a custom description simple close (set an exact mutual close tx fee rate) native support for Linux arm64 This is the server version. Phoenix mobile release is around the corner. '

On the 13th of May:

➡️Corporate Bitcoin purchases have now outweighed the supply of new Bitcoin by 3.3x in 2025. https://i.ibb.co/fVdgQhyY/Gq1ck-XRXUAAsg-Ym.jpg

➡️ Publicly listed Next Technology disclosed buying 5,000 Bitcoin for $180m, now HODLs 5,833 $BTC worth +$600m.

➡️ After rejecting the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, Governor Katie Hobbs vetoed Bill SB 1373, which proposed a digital asset reserve fund. "Current volatility in the cryptocurrency markets does not make a prudent fit for general fund dollars."

➡️Meanwhile in Paris, France the kidnapping of a woman with her 2-year-old child morning on the streets of Paris - the target is allegedly the daughter of a crypto CEO. 3 masked men tried forcing them into a fake delivery van, before being fought off by her partner and bystanders. One of whom grabbed a dropped gun and aimed it back.

➡️ 'Bitcoin illiquid supply hit a new all-time high of $1.4B Are you HODLing too, anon?' - Bitcoin News

➡️Why Coinbase entering the S&P 500 matters. Boomers will have Bitcoin / CrApTo exposure, whether they like it or not. Anyway, remember what happened in 2021. The COIN IPO, and they’re still trading about 35% below their IPO-day high. Oh and please read the 'Coinbase" hack below haha.

➡️ Nasdaq listed GD Culture Group to sell up to $300 million shares to buy Bitcoin.

➡️ A Bitcoin wallet untouched since April 2014 just moved 300 BTC worth $31M for the first time in 11 years. This is how you HODL.

➡️ Bitcoin's realized price is steadily increasing, mirroring behaviors seen in past bull markets, according to CryptoQuant.

➡️ Bitcoin whales and sharks (10-10K BTC) accumulated 83,105 BTC in the last 30 days, while small retail holders (<0.1 BTC) sold 387 BTC, according to Santiment.

Bitcoin Whales have been AGGRESSIVELY accumulating BTC recently! With at least 240,000+ Bitcoin transferred to wallets with at least 100 BTC. The largest market participants are trying to buy as much as possible, what do they think comes next...

➡️'The average cost of mining 1 BTC for miners is currently $36.8K. The spread between the current market price and the cost of one coin = 182%. This is essentially the average profitability. This corresponds to the beginning of the bull cycle in November 2022 and the peaks of this cycle >$100K. A price increase above this level will allow miners to fully recover after the last halving and reach excess profits comparable to the beginning of the bull rally in January 2023.' -Axel Adler Jr.

➡️ Remember last week's segment on Coinbase..."Coinbase just disclosed in their Q1 filing: that they have custody of 2.68 million Bitcoin. That’s over 13% of all Bitcoin in circulation, on one platform. Is this the greatest honeypot in financial history? Yes, it is...read next week's Weekly Bitcoin update."

Well, here you go.

Coinbase estimates $180-$400 million in losses, remediation costs, and reimbursement following today’s cyber attack. https://i.ibb.co/jkysLtZ1/Gq-C7zl-W4-AAJ0-N6.jpg

Coinbase didn't get hacked. Coinbase employees sold customer data on the black market. Coinbase failed to protect customer data. This is why KYC is useless. The criminals have our driver's license scans. They have AI tools that can generate fake images and videos. KYC puts our identities at risk, makes onboarding more difficult, and rewards criminals. To make it even worse. Coinbase knew about the hack as early as January but only disclosed it publicly after being added to the S&P 500.

I will say it one more time! Don't buy your Bitcoin on KYC exchanges. KYC means handing over your identity to be leaked, sold, or extorted.

It was 2 days ago, see the bit on the 13th of May, that we saw a violent attack in Paris. Minimize the data you share with centralized tools. Store as much as you can locally. Always ask yourself what data am I giving and to whom? Remove the need for trust.

And for the love of God, Allah, or whatever god you are praying to...

DON'T LEAVE YOUR COINS ON A FREAKING EXCHANGE!!!!

Clear!

➡️ Sam Callahan: Bitcoin CAGRs over rolling four-year holding periods since 2012:

10th percentile: 33%

25th percentile: 50% 40th percentile: 75%

Said differently, for 90% of the time, Bitcoin’s four-year CAGR was higher than 33%. For comparison, here are the single best four-year CAGRs over the same period for:

Gold: 17%

Silver: 20%

S&P 500: 24%

Apple: 52%

Two lessons here:

1.) Even when Bitcoin underperforms, it still outperforms.

2.) Bitcoin holding goals are best measured in halving cycles.'

https://i.ibb.co/9m6q2118/Gq1-Ie2-Ob-AAIJ8-Kf.jpg

➡️ Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has bought 96,870 Strategy₿ stocks for 30 Million dollars at an Average Price Of $310 Per Share In Q1 2025, Their Total Holdings Is 518,000 Shares Worth Over 214 Million Dollars.

➡️Senator Lummis urges the U.S. Treasury to eliminate taxes on unrealized gains for Bitcoin.

On the 14th of May:

➡️At $168,000, Bitcoin will surpass Microsoft, the world's largest company.

➡️Fidelity tells institutions to buy Bitcoin if they can’t match Bitcoin’s 65% return on capital.

➡️Michigan has adopted House Resolution 100, declaring May 13 2025 as "Digital Asset Awareness Day." The resolution encourages "activities and programs that foster a deeper understanding of digital assets and their impact on our society and economy."

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz raises funding to buy $2 million in #Bitcoin assets.

➡️Bitcoin News: "Investor Jim Chanos is shorting MicroStrategy while going long on Bitcoin, calling the stock overvalued relative to its BTC holdings. “We’re selling MicroStrategy and buying Bitcoin, basically buying something for $1 and selling it for $2.50," he told CNBC

On the 15th of May:

➡️The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund disclosed owning $511 million in Bitcoin through BlackRock’s ETF.

➡️UK public company Coinsilium Group raises £1.25 million to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

➡️Chinese Textile company Addentax issues stock to buy 8,000 Bitcoin.

➡️14 US states have reported $632m in $MSTR exposure for Q1, in public retirement and treasury funds. A collective increase of $302m in one quarter. The average increase in holding size was 44%.

➡️Chinese public company DDC Enterprise to adopt a Bitcoin Reserve with 5,000 BTC.

On the 16th of May:

➡️Brazilian listed company Méliuz buys $28.4 million Bitcoin to become the nation's first Bitcoin Treasury Company. Shareholders voted to approve the strategy by an "overwhelming majority".

➡️13F Filings show Texas Retirement System owns MSTR. The day MSTR enters the S&P 500, every pension fund will follow.

➡️'Wealthy Investors Shift Up to 5% into Bitcoin as confidence in fiat falters. UBS, a Swiss banking giant says Bitcoin and digital assets are becoming key hedges against inflation and systemic risk, marking a dramatic shift in modern portfolio strategy.' -CarlBMenger

➡️River: "Above all, Bitcoin is money for the people." https://i.ibb.co/Jj8MVQwr/Gr-Ew-EPp-XAAA1-TVN.jpg

On the 17th of May:

➡️Illicit activity is now down to 0.14% of transaction volume across all crypto.

Context: World Bank, IMF suggests 1.5–4% of global GDP is laundered yearly through traditional banking Of that 0.14%:

63% of illicit trade was stablecoins.

13% was Bitcoin (declining each year)

Source: The 2025 Crypto Crime Report, Chainalysis 2025

Yet another confirmation that Bitcoin's use in facilitating illicit activities is a rounding error on a rounding error.

On the 18th of May:

➡️JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said they will allow clients to buy Bitcoin. The repeal of SAB 121 is a bigger deal than most realize. “I will fire any employee buying or trading Bitcoin for being stupid” - Jamie Dimon (2017) https://i.ibb.co/b5tnkb15/Gr-Vxxc-OXk-AA7cyo.jpg

On the 19th of May.

➡️Bookmark the following stuff from Daniel Batten if you want to combat climate change (fanatics)...

'That Bitcoin mining is not only not harmful, but beneficial to the environment is now supported by:

7 independent reports

20 peer-reviewed papers

As a result * 90% of climate-focused magazines * 87.5% of media coverage on Bitcoin & the environment is now positive * source 7 independent reports https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922666207754281449… * 20 peer-reviewed papers https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1923014527651615182… * 10 climate-focused magazines https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1919518338092323260… * 16 mainstream media articles https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1922628399551434755

➡️Saifedean Ammous: '5 years ago at the height of corona hysteria, everyone worried about their savings.

If you put $10,000 in "risk-free" long-term US government bonds, you'd have $6,000 today.

If you put the $10,000 in "risky speculative tulip" bitcoin, you'd have $106,000.

HFSP, bondcucks!'

I love how Saifedean always put it so eloquently. haha

➡️An Australian judge rules Bitcoin is “just another form of money.” This could make it exempt from capital gains tax. Potentially opening the door to millions in refunds across the country. - AFR

If upheld, the decision could trigger up to $1B in refunds and overturn the Australian Tax Office’s crypto tax approach.

➡️Publicly traded Vinanz buys 16.9 Bitcoin for $1.75 Million for their treasury.

➡️Bitcoin just recorded its highest weekly close ever, while the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit its highest level in history.

➡️4 in 5 Americans want the U.S. to convert part of its gold reserves to Bitcoin. - The Nakamoto Project

"or background, the survey question was: "Assuming the United States was thinking of converting some of their gold reserves into Bitcoin, what percentage would you advise they convert?" Respondents were provided a slider used to choose between 0% and 100%. Our survey consisted of a national sample of 3,345 respondents recruited in partnership with Qualtrics, a survey and data collection company"

Context: https://x.com/thetrocro/status/1924552097565180107 https://i.ibb.co/fGDw06MC/Gr-VYDIdb-AAI7-Kxd.jpg

➡️Michael Saylor's STRATEGY bought another $764.9m Bitcoin. They now HODL 576,230 Bitcoin, acquired for $40.18 billion at $69,726 per Bitcoin.

➡️The German Government sold 49,858 BTC for $2.89B, at an average price of $57,900. If they had held it, their BTC would now be worth $5.24B.

➡️A record 63% of all the Bitcoin that exist have not transacted or moved from their wallets this year. - Wicked

https://i.ibb.co/j9nvbvmP/Gq3-Z-x6-Xw-AAv-Bhg.jpg

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽The S&P 500 has closed more than 20% above its April low, technically beginning a new bull market. We are now up +1,000 points in one month.

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽 Nvidia announces a partnership with Humain to build "AI factories of the future" in Saudi Arabia. Just one hour ago, Saudi Arabia signed an economic agreement with President Trump to invest $600 billion in the US.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽 No news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 12th of May:

👉🏽Huge pressure is on the European Union to reach a trade deal. Equities and commodities bounce hard on news of China-US trade deal. "We have reached an agreement on a 90-day pause and substantially moved down the tariff levels — both sides, on the reciprocal tariffs, will move their tariffs down 115%." - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

Dollar and Yuan strong bounce. Gold corrects.

👉🏽After reaching a high of 71% this year, recession odds are now back down to 40%. The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 fall to a new low of 40% following the US-China trade deal announcement.

👉🏽'Truly incredible:

1. Trump raises tariffs: Yields rise because inflation is back
2. Trump cuts tariffs: Yields rise because growth is back
3. Trump does nothing: Yields rise because the Fed won't cut rates Today, the bond market becomes Trump and Bessent's top priority.' - TKL

President Trump’s biggest problem persists even as trade deals are announced. Tariffs have been paused for 90 days, the US-China trade deal has been announced, and inflation data is down. Yet, the 10Y yield is nearing 4.50% again. Trump needs lower rates, but rates won’t fall.

👉🏽Last week a lot of talk on Japan’s Debt Death Spiral: Japan’s 40-year yield is detonating and the myth of consequence-free debt just died with it. One of the best explanations, you can read here:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Eye-opening chart. Can a country with a services-based economy remain a superpower? Building back US manufacturing base makes a lot of strategic and geopolitical sense.' https://i.ibb.co/Q3zJY9Fc/Gqxc6-Pt-WQAI73c.jpg

On the 13th of May:

👉🏽There is a possibility of a “big, beautiful” economic rebalancing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says at an investment forum in Saudi Arabia. The “dream scenario” would be if China and the US can work together on rebalancing, he adds

Luke Gromen: It does roll off the tongue a whole lot nicer than "We want to significantly devalue USD v. CNY, via a gold reference point."

Ergo: The price of gold specifically would rise in USD much more than it would in CNY, while prices for other goods and services would not, or would do so to a lesser degree.

👉🏽 Dutch inflation rises to 4.1 percent in April | CBS – final figure. Unchanged compared to the estimate.

👉🏽Philipp Heimberger: This interesting new paper argues that cuts to taxes on top incomes disproportionately benefit the financial sector. The finance industry gains more from top-income tax cuts than other industries. "Cuts in top income tax rates increase the (relative) size of the financial sector"

Source

Kinda obvious, innit?

👉🏽US CPI data released. Overall good results and cooler than expected month-over-month and year-over-year (outside of yearly core). U.S. inflation is down to 2.3%, lower than expected.

On the 14th of May:

👉🏽'The US government cannot afford a recession: In previous economic cycles, the US budget deficit widened by ~4% of GDP on average during recessions. This would imply a ~$1.3 trillion deterioration of US government finances if a recession hits in 2025. That said, if the US enters a recession, long-term interest rates will likely go down.

A 2-percentage-point decrease in interest rates would save ~$568 billion in annual interest payments. However, this means government finances would worsen by more than DOUBLE the amount saved in interest due to a recession. An economic downturn would be incredibly costly for the US government.' -TKL

On the 15th of May:

👉🏽'In the Eurozone and the UK, households hold more than 30% of their financial assets in fiat currencies and bank deposits. This means that they (unknowingly?) allow inflation to destroy their purchasing power. The risks of inflation eating up your wealth increase in a debt-driven economic system characterized by fiscal dominance, where interest rates are structurally low and inflation levels and risks are high. There is so much forced and often failed regulation to increase financial literacy, but this part is never explained. Why is that, you think?' - Jeroen Blokland https://i.ibb.co/zWRpNqhz/Gq-jn-Bn-X0-AAmplm.png

On the 16th of May:

👉🏽'For the first time in a year, Japan's economy shrank by -0.7% in Q1 2025. This is more than double the decline expected by economists. Furthermore, this data does NOT include the reciprocal tariffs imposed on April 2nd. Japan's economy is heading for a recession.' -TKL

👉🏽'246 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years. This is up from 206 recorded last year and more than DOUBLE during the same period in 2022. In April alone, the US saw 59 bankruptcy filings as tariffs ramped up. So far this year, the industrials sector has seen 41 bankruptcies, followed by 31 in consumer discretionary, and 17 in healthcare. According to S&P Global, consumer discretionary companies have been hit the hardest due to market volatility, tariffs, and inflation uncertainty. We expect a surge in bankruptcies in 2025.' -TKL

👉🏽'Moody's just downgraded the United States' credit rating for the FIRST time in history. The reason: An unsustainable path for US federal debt and its resulting interest burden. Moody's notes that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 134% by 2035. Federal interest payments are set to equal ~30% of revenue by 2035, up from ~18% in 2024 and ~9% in 2021. Furthermore, deficit spending is now at World War 2 levels as a percentage of GDP. The US debt crisis is our biggest issue with the least attention.' - TKL

Still, this is a nothing burger. In August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US to AA+, and S&P (2011) the US became a split-rated AA+ country. This downgrade had almost no effect on the bond market. The last of the rating agencies, Moodys, pushed the US down to AA+ today. So technically it didn’t even change the US’s overall credit rating because it was already split-rated AA+, now it’s unanimous AA+.

Ergo: Nothing changed. America now shares a credit rating with Austria and Finland. Hard assets don’t lie. Watch Gold and Bitcoin.

https://i.ibb.co/Q7DcWY2P/Gr-K66i-EXIAAKh-MR.jpg

RAY DALIO: Credit Agencies are UNDERSTATING sovereign credit risks because "they don't include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts" with devalued currency.

👉🏽US consumer credit card serious delinquencies are rising at a CRISIS pace: The share of US credit card debt that is past due at least 90 days hit 12.3% in Q1 2025, the highest in 14 YEARS. The percentage has risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis.' - Global Markets Investor

https://i.ibb.co/nNH9CxVK/Gr-E838o-XYAIk-Fyn.png

On the 18th of May:

👉🏽Michael A. Arouet: 'Look at ten bottom of this list. Milei has not only proven that real free market reforms work, but he has also proven that they work fast. It’s bigger than Argentina now, no wonder that the left legacy media doesn’t like him so much.' https://i.ibb.co/MDnBCDSY/Gr-Npu-KKWMAAf-Pc.jpg

On the 19th of May: 👉🏽Japan's 40-year bond yield just hit its highest level in over 20 years. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba has called the situation “worse than Greece.” All as Japan’s GDP is contracting again. You and your mother should be scared out of your fucking minds. https://i.ibb.co/rGZ9cMtv/GTXx-S7-Cb-MAAOu-Vt.png

👉🏽 TKL: 'Investors are piling into gold funds like never before: Gold funds have posted a record $85 BILLION in net inflows year-to-date. This is more than DOUBLE the full-year record seen in 2020. At this pace, net inflows will surpass $180 billion by the end of 2025. Gold is now the best-performing major asset class, up 22% year-to-date. Since the low in October 2022, gold prices have gained 97%. Gold is the global hedge against uncertainty.'

🎁If you have made it this far, I would like to give you a little gift, well, in this case, two gifts:

What Bitcoin Did - IS THE FED LOSING CONTROL? With Matthew Mezinskis

'Matthew Mezinskis is a macroeconomic researcher, host of the Crypto Voices podcast, and creator of Porkopolis Economics. In this episode, we discuss fractional reserve banking, why it's controversial among Bitcoiners, the historical precedent for banking practices, and whether fractional reserve banking inherently poses systemic risks. We also get into the dangers and instabilities introduced by central banking, why Bitcoin uniquely offers a pathway to financial sovereignty, the plumbing of the global financial system, breaking down money supply metrics, foreign holdings of US treasuries, and how all these elements indicate growing instability in the dollar system.'

https://youtu.be/j-XPVOl9zGc

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly.

Use the code SE3997

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple. ⠀ ⠀

⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you?

If so, please share it and support my work with a zap.

▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃

⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe - Bitcoin Friday!

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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

U ovoj sekciji pratićemo cene raznih dobara i usluga, a pre svega nekretnina, prosečne srpske plate, goriva, deviznih i zlatnih rezervi Srbije u odnosu na Bitkoin. Iz priloženih grafikona može se videti da sve vremenom gubi vrednost, odnosno postaje jeftinije u odnosu na BTC.

Cene nekretnina u Republici Srbiji izražene kroz Bitkoin (kompletni grafikoni)

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Visina prosečne zarade u Republici Srbiji, cene goriva, dinarska i devizna štednja stanovništva, devizne i zlatne rezerve Srbije - izraženo kroz Bitkoin (kompletni grafikoni)

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Prosečna cena m2 stana u Gradu Beogradu izražena kroz BTC

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Prosečna cena m2 stana u Novom Sadu izražena kroz BTC

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Prosečna cena m2 stana u Nišu izražena kroz BTC

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Prosečna cena m2 stana u Kragujevcu izražena kroz BTC

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Prosečna zarada u Republici Srbiji izražena kroz BTC

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Cena goriva 'Evro Premium BMB 95' izražena kroz BTC

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Cena goriva 'Evro Dizel' izražena kroz BTC

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Dinarska štednja stanovništva kod banaka izražena kroz BTC

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Devizna štednja stanovništva kod banaka izražena kroz BTC

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Devizne rezerve Republike Srbije izražene kroz BTC

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Zlatne rezerve Republike Srbije izražene kroz BTC

@ 58537364:705b4b85

“Any society that sets intellectual development as its goal will continually progress, without end—until life is liberated from problems and suffering. All problems can ultimately be solved through wisdom itself.

The signpost pointing toward ‘wisdom’ is the ability to think—or what is called in Dhamma terms, ‘yoniso-manasikāra,’ meaning wise or analytical reflection. Thinking is the bridge that connects information and knowledge with insight and understanding. Refined or skillful thinking enables one to seek knowledge and apply it effectively.

The key types of thinking are:

• Thinking to acquire knowledge
• Thinking to apply knowledge effectively In other words, thinking to gain knowledge and thinking to use that knowledge. A person with knowledge who doesn’t know how to think cannot make that knowledge useful. On the other hand, a person who thinks without having or seeking knowledge will end up with nothing but dreamy, deluded ideas. When such dreamy ideas are expressed as opinions, they become nonsensical and meaningless—mere expressions of personal likes or dislikes.

In this light, the ‘process of developing wisdom’ begins with the desire to seek knowledge, followed by the training of thinking skills, and concludes with the ability to express well-founded opinions. (In many important cases, practice, testing, or experimentation is needed to confirm understanding.)

Thus, the thirst for knowledge and the ability to seek knowledge are the forerunners of intellectual development. In any society where people lack a love for knowledge and are not inclined to search for it, true intellectual growth will be difficult. That society will be filled with fanciful, delusional thinking and opinions based merely on personal likes and dislikes. For the development of wisdom, there must be the guiding principle that: ‘Giving opinions must go hand-in-hand with seeking knowledge. And once knowledge is gained, thinking must be refined and skillful.’”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto) Source: Dhamma treatise “Organizing Society According to the Ideals of the Sangha”

Note: “Pariyosāna” means the complete conclusion or the final, all-encompassing end.

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“We must emphasize the pursuit of knowledge more than merely giving opinions. Opinions must be based on the most solid foundation of knowledge.

Nowadays, we face so many problems because people love to express opinions without ever seeking knowledge.”

— Somdet Phra Buddhaghosacariya (P.A. Payutto)

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

This event has been deleted; your client is ignoring the delete request.

@ 39cc53c9:27168656

Read the original blog post

The new website is finally live! I put in a lot of hard work over the past months on it. I'm proud to say that it's out now and it looks pretty cool, at least to me!

Why rewrite it all?

The old kycnot.me site was built using Python with Flask about two years ago. Since then, I've gained a lot more experience with Golang and coding in general. Trying to update that old codebase, which had a lot of design flaws, would have been a bad idea. It would have been like building on an unstable foundation.

That's why I made the decision to rewrite the entire application. Initially, I chose to use SvelteKit with JavaScript. I did manage to create a stable site that looked similar to the new one, but it required Jav aScript to work. As I kept coding, I started feeling like I was repeating "the Python mistake". I was writing the app in a language I wasn't very familiar with (just like when I was learning Python at that mom ent), and I wasn't happy with the code. It felt like spaghetti code all the time.

So, I made a complete U-turn and started over, this time using Golang. While I'm not as proficient in Golang as I am in Python now, I find it to be a very enjoyable language to code with. Most aof my recent pr ojects have been written in Golang, and I'm getting the hang of it. I tried to make the best decisions I could and structure the code as well as possible. Of course, there's still room for improvement, which I'll address in future updates.

Now I have a more maintainable website that can scale much better. It uses a real database instead of a JSON file like the old site, and I can add many more features. Since I chose to go with Golang, I mad e the "tradeoff" of not using JavaScript at all, so all the rendering load falls on the server. But I believe it's a tradeoff that's worth it.

What's new

• UI/UX - I've designed a new logo and color palette for kycnot.me. I think it looks pretty cool and cypherpunk. I am not a graphic designer, but I think I did a decent work and I put a lot of thinking on it to make it pleasant!
• Point system - The new point system provides more detailed information about the listings, and can be expanded to cover additional features across all services. Anyone can request a new point!
• ToS Scrapper: I've implemented a powerful automated terms-of-service scrapper that collects all the ToS pages from the listings. It saves you from the hassle of reading the ToS by listing the lines that are suspiciously related to KYC/AML practices. This is still in development and it will improve for sure, but it works pretty fine right now!
• Search bar - The new search bar allows you to easily filter services. It performs a full-text search on the Title, Description, Category, and Tags of all the services. Looking for VPN services? Just search for "vpn"!
• Transparency - To be more transparent, all discussions about services now take place publicly on GitLab. I won't be answering any e-mails (an auto-reply will prompt to write to the corresponding Gitlab issue). This ensures that all service-related matters are publicly accessible and recorded. Additionally, there's a real-time audits page that displays database changes.
• Listing Requests - I have upgraded the request system. The new form allows you to directly request services or points without any extra steps. In the future, I plan to enable requests for specific changes to parts of the website.
• Lightweight and fast - The new site is lighter and faster than its predecessor!
• Tor and I2P - At last! kycnot.me is now officially on Tor and I2P!

How?

This rewrite has been a labor of love, in the end, I've been working on this for more than 3 months now. I don't have a team, so I work by myself on my free time, but I find great joy in helping people on their private journey with cryptocurrencies. Making it easier for individuals to use cryptocurrencies without KYC is a goal I am proud of!

If you appreciate my work, you can support me through the methods listed here. Alternatively, feel free to send me an email with a kind message!

Technical details

All the code is written in Golang, the website makes use of the chi router for the routing part. I also make use of BigCache for caching database requests. There is 0 JavaScript, so all the rendering load falls on the server, this means it needed to be efficient enough to not drawn with a few users since the old site was reporting about 2M requests per month on average (note that this are not unique users).

The database is running with mariadb, using gorm as the ORM. This is more than enough for this project. I started working with an sqlite database, but I ended up migrating to mariadb since it works better with JSON.

The scraper is using chromedp combined with a series of keywords, regex and other logic. It runs every 24h and scraps all the services. You can find the scraper code here.

The frontend is written using Golang Templates for the HTML, and TailwindCSS plus DaisyUI for the CSS classes framework. I also use some plain CSS, but it's minimal.

The requests forms is the only part of the project that requires JavaScript to be enabled. It is needed for parsing some from fields that are a bit complex and for the "captcha", which is a simple Proof of Work that runs on your browser, destinated to avoid spam. For this, I use mCaptcha.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

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Curabitur suscipit vulputate volutpat Donec ornare, risus non tincidunt malesuada, elit magna feugiat diam, id faucibus libero libero efficitur mauris

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

I https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr a few months ago with the subtitle “The Only Stock,” and I’m starting to regret it. Now, it was trading at 396 on January 20 when I posted it and 404 now (even if it dipped 40 percent to 230 or so in between), but that’s not why I regret it. I pointed out it was not investable unless you’re willing to stomach large drawdowns, and anyone who bought then could exit with a small profit now had they not panic-sold along the way.

The reason I regret it is I don’t want to make public stock predictions because it adds stress to my life. I have not sold any of my shares yet, but something I’ve noticed recently has got me thinking about it, and stock tips are like a game of telephone wherein whoever is last in the chain might find out the wrong information and too late. And while every adult has agency and is responsible for his own financial decisions, I don’t want my readers losing money on account of anything I write.

My base case is still that MSTR becomes a trillion-dollar company, destroys the performance of the S&P, the Mag-7 and virtually any other equity portfolio most people would assemble. Michael Saylor is trading an infinitely-printable asset (his shares) for humanity’s best-ever, finite-supply digital gold, and that trade should be profitable for him and his shareholders in perpetuity.

I don’t know exactly what he plans to do when that trade is no longer available to him — either because no one takes fiat currency for bitcoin anymore or because his mNAV (market-cap-to-bitcoin-holding ratio) goes below one — but that’s not my main concern, either. At that point he’ll have so much bitcoin, he’ll probably become the world’s first and largest bitcoin bank and profit by making his pristine collateral available to individuals and institutions. Even at five percent interest, half a trillion in bitcoin would yield $25B in profits every year. Even at a modest 10x valuation, the stock would more than double from here.

I am also not overly concerned with Saylor’s present amount of convertible debt which is at low or zero rates and is only https://www.strategy.com/. He’s been conservative on that front and only issuing on favorable terms. I don’t doubt Saylor’s prescience, intelligence or business sense one bit.

What got me thinking were some Twitter posts by a former Salomon Brothers trader/prophet Josh Mandell https://x.com/JoshMandell6/status/1921597739458339193 recently. In November when bitcoin was mooning after the election, he predicted that on March 14th it would close at $84,000, and if it did it would then go on an epic run up to $444,000 this cycle.

A lot of people make predictions, a few of them come true, but rarely do they come true on the dot (it closed at exactly $84K according to some exchanges) and on such a specific timeframe. Now, maybe he just got lucky, or maybe he is a skilled trader who made one good prediction, but the reason he gave for his prediction, insofar as he gave one, was not some technical chart or quantitative analysis, but a memory he had from 30 years ago that got into his mind that he couldn’t shake. He didn’t get much more specific than that, other than that he was tuned into something that if he explained fully would make too many people think he had gone insane. And then the prediction came true on the dot months later.

Now I believe in the paranormal more than the average person. I do not think things are random, and insofar as they appear that way it’s only because we have incomplete information — even a coin toss is predictable if you knew the exact force and spin that was put on the coin. I think for whatever reason, this guy is plugged into something, and while I would never invest a substantial amount of money on that belief — not only are earnestly-made prophecies often delusions or even if correct wrongly interpreted — that he sold makes me think.

He gave more substantive reasons for selling than prophecy, by the way — he seems to think Saylor’s perpetual issuance of shares ATM (at the market) to buy more bitcoin is putting too much downward pressure on the stock. Obviously, selling shares — even if to buy the world’s most pristine collateral at a 2x-plus mNAV — reduces the short-term appreciation of those shares.

His thesis seems to be that Saylor is doing this even if he would be better off letting the price appreciate more, attracting more investors, squeezing more shorts, etc because he needs to improve his credit rating to tap into the convertible debt market to the extent he has promised ($42 billion more over the next few years) at favorable terms. But in doing this, he is souring common stock investors because they are not seeing the near-term appreciation they should on their holdings.

Now this is a trivial concern if over the long haul MSTR does what it has the last couple years which is to outperform by a wide margin not only every large cap stock and the S&P but bitcoin itself. And the bigger his stack of bitcoin, the more his stock should appreciate as bitcoin goes up. But markets do not operate linearly and rationally. Should he sour prospective buyers to a great enough extent, should he attract shorts (and supply them with available shares to borrow) to a great enough extent, perhaps there might be an mNAV-crushing cascade that drives people into other bitcoin treasury companies, ETFs or bitcoin itself.

Now Saylor as first mover and by far the largest publicly-traded treasury company has a significant advantage. Institutions are far less likely to invest in size in smaller treasury companies with shorter track records, and many of them are not allowed to invest in ETFs or bitcoin at all. And even if a lot of money did go into any of those vehicles, it would only drive the value of his assets up and hence his stock price, no matter the mNAV. But Josh Mandell sold his shares prior to a weekend where bitcoin went from 102K to 104K, the US announced a deal with China, the mag-7 had a big spike (AAPL was up 6.3 percent) and then MSTR’s stock went down from 416 to 404. As I said, he is on to something.

So what’s the real long-term risk? I don’t know. Maybe there’s something about the nature of bitcoin that long-term is not really amenable to third-party custody and administration. It’s a bearer asset (“not your keys, not your coins”), and introducing counterparty risk is antithetical to its core purpose, the separation of money and state, or in this case money and bank.

With the bitcoin network you can literally “be your own bank.” To transact in digital dollars you need a bank account — or at least a stable coin one mediated by a centralized entity like Tether. You can’t hold digital dollars in your mind via some memorized seed words like you can bitcoin, accessible anywhere in the world, the ledger of which is maintained by tens of thousands of individually-run nodes. This property which democratizes value storage in the way gold did, except now you can wield your purchasing power globally, might be so antithetical to communal storage via corporation or bank that doing so is doomed to catastrophe.

We’ve already seen this happen with exchanges via FTX and Mt. Gox. Counterparty risk is one of the problems bitcoin was created to solve, so moving that risk from a fractionally reserved international banking system to corporate balance sheets still very much a part of that system is probably not the seismic advancement integral to the technology’s promise.

But this is more of a philosophical concern rather than a concrete one. To get more specific, it’s easy to imagine Coinbase, if indeed that’s where MSTR custodies its coins, gets hacked or https://www.chrisliss.com/p/soft-landing, i.e., seized by an increasingly desperate and insolvent government. Or maybe Coinbase simply doesn’t have the coins it purports like FTX, or a rogue band of employees, working on behalf of some powerful faction for “https://www.chrisliss.com/national-security-and-public-healt” executes the rug pull. Even if you deem these scenarios unlikely, they are not unfathomable.

Beyond outright counterparty malfeasance, there are other risks — what if owning common stock in an enterprise that simply holds bitcoin falls out of favor? Imagine if some new individual custody solution emerges wherein you have direct access to the coins themselves in an “even a boomer can do this” kind of way wherein there’s no compelling reason to own common stock with its junior claims to the capital stack in the event of insolvency? Why stand in line behind debt holders and preferred shares when you can invest in something that’s directly withdrawable and accessible if world events spike volatility to a systemic breaking point?

Things need not even get that rocky for this to be a concern — just the perception that they might could spook people into realizing common stock of a corporate balance sheet might be less than ideal as your custody solution.

Moreover, Saylor himself presents some risk. He could be compromised or blackmailed, he could lose his cool or get into an accident. These are low-probability scenarios, but also not unfathomable as any single point of failure is a target, especially for those factions who stand to lose unimaginable wealth and power should his speculative attack on the system succeed at scale.

Finally, even if Saylor remains free to operate as he sees fit, there is what I’d call the Icarus risk — he might be too ambitious, too hell-bent on acquiring bitcoin at all costs, too much of a maniac in service of his vision. Remember, he initially bought bitcoin during the covid crash and concomitant massive money print upon his prescient realization that businesses providing goods and services couldn’t possibly keep pace with inflation over the long haul. He was merely playing defense to preserve his capital, and now, despite his sizable lead and secured position is still throwing forward passes in the fourth quarter rather than running out the clock and securing the W.

Saylor is now arguably less a bitcoin maximalist and advocate, articulately making the case for superior money and individual sovereignty, but a corporate titan hell-bent on world domination via apex-predator-status balance sheet. When is enough enough? Many of the greatest conquerors in history pushed their empires too far until they fractured. In fact, 25 years ago MSTR was a big winner before the dot-com crash during which its stock price and most of Saylor’s fortune were wiped out when he was sued by the SEC for accounting fraud (he subsequently settled).

Now it’s possible, he learned from that experience, got up off the mat and figured out how to avoid his youthful mistakes. But it’s also possible his character is such that he will repeat it again, only this time at scale.

But as I said, my base case is MSTR is a trillion-dollar market cap, and the stock runs in parallel with bitcoin’s ascendance over the next decade. Saylor has been https://www.strategy.com/, prescient, bold and responsible so far over this iteration. I view Mandell’s concerns as valid, but similar to Wall St’s ones about AMZN’s Jeff Bezos who relentlessly ignored their insistence on profitability for a decade as he plowed every dollar into building out productive capacity and turned the company into the $2T world-dominating retail giant it is now.

Again, I haven’t (yet) sold any of my shares or even call options. But because I posted about this in January I felt I should at least follow-up with a more detailed rundown of what I take to be the risks. As always, do your own due diligence with any prospective investment.

@ f7a1599c:6f2484d5

In March 2020, Lucas was afraid.

The economy was grinding to a halt. Markets were in freefall. In a sweeping response, the Federal Reserve launched an unprecedented intervention—buying everything from Treasury bonds and mortgages to corporate debt, expanding the money supply by $4 trillion. At the same time, the U.S. government issued over $800 billion in stimulus checks to households across the country.

These extraordinary measures may have averted a wave of business failures and bank runs—but they came at a cost: currency debasement and rising inflation. Alarmed by the scale of central bank intervention and its consequences for savers, Lucas decided to act.

In a state of mild panic, he withdrew $15,000 from his bank account and bought ten gold coins. Then he took another $10,000 and bought two bitcoins. If the dollar system failed, Lucas wanted something with intrinsic value he could use.

He mentioned his plan to his friend Daniel, who laughed.

“Why don’t you stock up on guns and cigarettes while you’re at it?” Daniel quipped. “The Fed is doing what it has to—stabilizing the economy in a crisis. Sure, $4 trillion is a lot of money, but it's backed by the most productive economy on Earth. Don’t panic. The world’s not ending.”

To prove his point, Daniel put $25,000 into the S&P 500—right at the pandemic bottom.

And he was right. Literally.

By Spring 2025, the stock market was near all-time highs. The world hadn’t ended. The U.S. economy kept moving, more or less as usual. Daniel’s investment had nearly tripled—his $25,000 had grown to $65,000.

But oddly enough, Lucas’ seemingly panicked reaction had been both prudent and profitable.

His gold coins had climbed from $1,500 to $3,300 apiece—a 120% gain. Bitcoin had soared from $5,000 to $90,000, making his two coins worth $180,000. Altogether, Lucas’s $25,000 allocation had grown to $213,000—a nearly 10x return. And his goal wasn’t even profit. It was safety.

With that kind of fortune, you’d expect Lucas to feel confident, even serene. He had more than enough to preserve his purchasing power, even in the face of years of inflation.

But in the spring of 2025, Lucas felt anything but calm.

He was uneasy—gripped by a sense that the 2020 crisis hadn’t been a conclusion, but a prelude.

In his mind, 2020 was just the latest chapter in a troubling sequence: the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the global financial crisis in 2008, the pandemic shock of 2020. Each crisis had been more sudden, more sweeping, and more dependent on emergency measures than the last.

And Lucas couldn’t shake the feeling that the next act—whenever it came—would be more disruptive, more severe, and far more damaging.

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

When I was a kid, I wanted to be rich, but found the prospect of hard work tedious, pointless and soul-crushing. Instead of studying for exams, getting some job and clawing your way up the ladder, I wondered why we couldn’t just build a device that measured your brain capacity and awarded you the money you would have made had you applied yourself. Eliminate the middleman, so to speak, the useless paper pushing evoked by the word “career.”

But when you think about it, it’s not really money you’re after, as money is but purchasing power, and so it’s the things money can provide like a nice lifestyle and the peace of mind that comes from not worrying about it. And it’s not really the lifestyle or financial independence, per se, since moment to moment what’s in your bank account isn’t determining your mental state, but the feeling those things give you — a sense of expansiveness and freedom.

But if you did have such a machine, and it awarded you the money, you probably wouldn’t have that kind of expansiveness and freedom, especially if you did nothing to achieve those things. You would still feel bored, distracted and unsatisfied despite unrestricted means to travel or dine out as you saw fit. People who win the lottery, for example, tend to revert to their prior level of satisfaction in short order.

The feeling you really want then is the sense of rising to a challenge, negotiating and adapting to your environment, persevering in a state of uncertainty, tapping into your resourcefulness and creativity. It’s only while operating at the edge of your capacity you could ever be so fulfilled. In fact, in such a state the question of your satisfaction level would never come up. You wouldn’t even think to wonder about it you’d be so engrossed.

So what you really crave is a mind device that encourages you to adapt to your environment using your full creative capabilities in the present moment, so much so you realize if you do not do this, you have the sense of squandering your life in a tedious, pointless and soul-crushing way. You need to be totally stuck, without the option of turning back. In sum, you need to face reality exactly as it is, without any escape therefrom.

The measure of your mind in that case is your reality itself. The device is already with you — it’s the world you are presently creating with the consciousness you have, providing you avenues to escape, none of which are satisfactory, none that can lead to the state you truly desire. You have a choice to pursue them fruitlessly and wind up at square one, or to abandon them and attain your freedom. No matter how many times you go down a false road, you wind up at the same place until you give up on the Sisyphean task and proceed in earnest.

My childhood fantasy was real, it turns out, only I had misunderstood its meaning.

@ 15cf81d4:b328e146

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Our Recovery Services Include: 📈 Bitcoin Recovery: Lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? We help recover lost wallets, private keys, and passphrases. Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery. Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet. Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy. ⚠️ What We Don’t Do While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect

Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back! Did you know that between 3 to 3.4 million BTC — nearly 20% of the total supply — are estimated to be permanently lost? Don’t become part of that statistic! Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, sending funds to the wrong address, or damaged drives, we can help you navigate these challenges

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Crypt Recver is your trusted partner in cryptocurrency recovery. Let us turn your challenges into victories. Don’t hesitate — your crypto future starts now! 🚀✨

Act fast and secure your digital assets with cryptrecver.com.Losing access to your cryptocurrency can feel like losing a part of your future. Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, a damaged seed backup, or a simple mistake in a transfer, the stress can be overwhelming. Fortunately, cryptrecver.com is here to assist! With our expert-led recovery services, you can safely and swiftly reclaim your lost Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

# Why Trust Crypt Recver? 🤝

🛠️ Expert Recovery Solutions\ At Crypt Recver, we specialize in addressing complex wallet-related issues. Our skilled engineers have the tools and expertise to handle:

• Partially lost or forgotten seed phrases
• Extracting funds from outdated or invalid wallet addresses
• Recovering data from damaged hardware wallets
• Restoring coins from old or unsupported wallet formats

You’re not just getting a service; you’re gaining a partner in your cryptocurrency journey.

🚀 Fast and Efficient Recovery\ We understand that time is crucial in crypto recovery. Our optimized systems enable you to regain access to your funds quickly, focusing on speed without compromising security. With a success rate of over 90%, you can rely on us to act swiftly on your behalf.

🔒 Privacy is Our Priority\ Your confidentiality is essential. Every recovery session is conducted with the utmost care, ensuring all processes are encrypted and confidential. You can rest assured that your sensitive information remains private.

💻 Advanced Technology\ Our proprietary tools and brute-force optimization techniques maximize recovery efficiency. Regardless of how challenging your case may be, our technology is designed to give you the best chance at retrieving your crypto.

Our Recovery Services Include: 📈

• Bitcoin Recovery: Lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? We help recover lost wallets, private keys, and passphrases.
• Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery.
• Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet.
• Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy.

⚠️ What We Don’t Do\ While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect

# Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back!

Did you know that between 3 to 3.4 million BTC — nearly 20% of the total supply — are estimated to be permanently lost? Don’t become part of that statistic! Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, sending funds to the wrong address, or damaged drives, we can help you navigate these challenges

🛡️ Real-Time Dust Attack Protection\ Our services extend beyond recovery. We offer dust attack protection, keeping your activity anonymous and your funds secure, shielding your identity from unwanted tracking, ransomware, and phishing attempts.

🎉 Start Your Recovery Journey Today!\ Ready to reclaim your lost crypto? Don’t wait until it’s too late!\ 👉 cryptrecver.com

📞 Need Immediate Assistance? Connect with Us!\ For real-time support or questions, reach out to our dedicated team on:\ ✉️ Telegram: t.me/crypptrcver\ 💬 WhatsApp: +1(941)317–1821

Crypt Recver is your trusted partner in cryptocurrency recovery. Let us turn your challenges into victories. Don’t hesitate — your crypto future starts now! 🚀✨

Act fast and secure your digital assets with cryptrecver.com.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

via me

Don't sleep on what's happening in Japan right now. We've been covering the country and the fact that they've lost control of their yield curve since late last year. After many years of making it a top priority from a monetary policy perspective, last year the Bank of Japan decided to give up on yield curve control in an attempt to reel inflation. This has sent yields for the 30-year and 40-year Japanese government bonds to levels not seen since the early 2000s in the case of the 30-year and levels never before seen for the 40-year, which was launched in 2007. With a debt to GDP ratio that has surpassed 250% and a population that is aging out with an insufficient amount of births to replace the aging workforce, it's hard to see how Japan can get out of this conundrum without some sort of economic collapse.

This puts the United States in a tough position considering the fact that Japan is one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds with more than 1,135 sats | $1.20 trillion in exposure. If things get too out of control in Japan and the yield curve continues to drift higher and inflation continues to creep higher Japan can find itself in a situation where it's a forced seller of US Treasuries as they attempt to strengthen the yen. Another aspect to consider is the fact that investors may see the higher yields on Japanese government bonds and decide to purchase them instead of US Treasuries. This is something to keep an eye on in the weeks to come. Particularly if higher rates drive a higher cost of capital, which leads to even more inflation. As producers are forced to increase their prices to ensure that they can manage their debt repayments.

It's never a good sign when the Japanese Prime Minister is coming out to proclaim that his country's financial situation is worse than Greece's, which has been a laughing stock of Europe for the better part of three decades. Japan is a very proud nation, and the fact that its Prime Minister made a statement like this should not be underappreciated.

As we noted last week, the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds are drifting higher as well. Earlier today, the 30-year bond yield surpassed 5%, which has been a psychological level that many have been pointed to as a critical tipping point. When you take a step back and look around the world it seems pretty clear that bond markets are sending a very strong signal. And that signal is that something is not well in the back end of the financial system.

This is even made clear when you look at the private sector, particularly at consumer debt. In late March, we warned of the growing trend of buy now, pay later schemes drifting down market as major credit card companies released charge-off data which showed charge-off rates reaching levels not seen since the 2008 great financial crisis. At the time, we could only surmise that Klarna was experiencing similar charge-off rates on the bigger-ticket items they financed and started doing deals with companies like DoorDash to finance burrito deliveries in an attempt to move down market to finance smaller ticket items with a higher potential of getting paid back. It seems like that inclination was correct as Klarna released data earlier today showing more losses on their book as consumers find it extremely hard to pay back their debts.

via NewsWire

This news hit the markets on the same day as the average rate of the 30-year mortgage in the United States rose to 7.04%. I'm not sure if you've checked lately, but real estate prices are still relatively elevated outside of a few big cities who expanded supply significantly during the COVID era as people flooded out of blue states towards red states. It's hard to imagine that many people can afford a house based off of sticker price alone, but with a 7% 30-year mortgage rate it's becoming clear that the ability of the Common Man to buy a house is simply becoming impossible.

via Lance Lambert

The mortgage rate data is not the only thing you need to look at to understand that it's becoming impossible for the Common Man of working age to buy a house. New data has recently been released that highlights That the median home buyer in 2007 was born in 1968, and the median home buyer in 2024 was born in 1968. Truly wild when you think of it. As our friend Darth Powell cheekily highlights below, we find ourselves in a situation where boomers are simply trading houses and the younger generations are becoming indentured slaves. Forever destined to rent because of the complete inability to afford to buy a house.

via Darth Powell

via Yahoo Finance

Meanwhile, Bitcoin re-approached all-time highs late this evening and looks primed for another breakout to the upside. This makes sense if you're paying attention. The high-velocity trash economy running on an obscene amount of debt in both the public and private sectors seems to be breaking at the seams. All the alarm bells are signaling that another big print is coming. And if you hope to preserve your purchasing power or, ideally, increase it as the big print approaches, the only thing that makes sense is to funnel your money into the hardest asset in the world, which is Bitcoin.

via Bitbo

Buckle up, freaks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride. Stay humble, Stack Sats.

Trump's Middle East Peace Strategy: Redefining U.S. Foreign Policy

In his recent Middle East tour, President Trump signaled what our guest Dr. Anas Alhajji calls "a major change in US policy." Trump explicitly rejected the nation-building strategies of his predecessors, contrasting the devastation in Afghanistan and Iraq with the prosperity of countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE. This marks a profound shift from both Republican and Democratic foreign policy orthodoxy. As Alhajji noted, Trump's willingness to meet with Syrian President Assad follows a historical pattern where former adversaries eventually become diplomatic partners.

"This is really one of the most important shifts in US foreign policy to say, look, sorry, we destroyed those countries because we tried to rebuild them and it was a big mistake." - Dr. Anas Alhajji

The administration's new approach emphasizes negotiation over intervention. Rather than military solutions, Trump is engaging with groups previously considered off-limits, including the Houthis, Hamas, and Iran. This pragmatic stance prioritizes economic cooperation and regional stability over ideological confrontation. The focus on trade deals and investment rather than regime change represents a fundamental reimagining of America's role in the Middle East.

Check out the full podcast here for more on the Iran nuclear situation, energy market predictions, and why AI development could create power grid challenges. Only on TFTC Studio.

Headlines of the Day

Bitcoin Soars to 100,217 sats | $106.00K While Bonds Lose 40% Since 2020 - via X

US Senate Advances Stablecoin Bill As America Embraces Bitcoin - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Texas House Debates Bill For State-Run Bitcoin Reserve - via X

---

Take the First Step Off the Exchange

Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.

Take control. Start with Bitkey.

Use the promo code “TFTC20” during checkout for 20% off

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

Don't let the noise consume you. Focus on making your life 1% better every day.

---

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0Sj1sG05VQ

Here's a great presentation from our good friend nostr:nprofile1qyx8wumn8ghj7cnjvghxjmcpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqqyz2hj3zg2g3pqwxuhg69zgjhke4pcmjmmdpnndnefqndgqjt8exwj6ee8v7 , President of The Nakamoto Institute titled Hodl for Good. He gave it earlier this year at the BitBlockBoom Conference, and I think it's something everyone reading this should take 25 minutes to watch. Especially if you find yourself wondering whether or not it's a good idea to spend bitcoin at any given point in time. Michael gives an incredible Austrian Economics 101 lesson on the importance of lowering one's time preference and fully understanding the importance of hodling bitcoin. For the uninitiated, it may seem that the hodl meme is nothing more than a call to hoard bitcoins in hopes of getting rich eventually. However, as Michael points out, there's layers to the hodl meme and the good that hodling can bring individuals and the economy overall.

The first thing one needs to do to better understand the hodl meme is to completely flip the framing that is typically thrust on bitcoiners who encourage others to hodl. Instead of ceding that hodling is a greedy or selfish action, remind people that hodling, or better known as saving, is the foundation of capital formation, from which all productive and efficient economic activity stems. Number go up technology is great and it really matters. It matters because it enables anybody leveraging that technology to accumulate capital that can then be allocated toward productive endeavors that bring value to the individual who creates them and the individual who buys them.

When one internalizes this, it enables them to turn to personal praxis and focus on minimizing present consumption while thinking of ways to maximize long-term value creation. Live below your means, stack sats, and use the time that you're buying to think about things that you want in the future. By lowering your time preference and saving in a harder money you will have the luxury of demanding higher quality goods in the future. Another way of saying this is that you will be able to reshape production by voting with your sats. Initially when you hold them off the market by saving them - signaling that the market doesn't have goods worthy of your sats - and ultimately by redeploying them into the market when you find higher quality goods that meet the standards desire.

The first part of this equation is extremely important because it sends a signal to producers that they need to increase the quality of their work. As more and more individuals decide to use bitcoin as their savings technology, the signal gets stronger. And over many cycles we should begin to see low quality cheap goods exit the market in favor of higher quality goods that provide more value and lasts longer and, therefore, make it easier for an individual to depart with their hard-earned and hard-saved sats. This is only but one aspect that Michael tries to imbue throughout his presentation.

The other is the ability to buy yourself leisure time when you lower your time preference and save more than you spend. When your savings hit a critical tipping point that gives you the luxury to sit back and experience true leisure, which Michael explains is not idleness, but the contemplative space to study, create art, refine taste, and to find what "better goods" actually are. Those who can experience true leisure while reaping the benefits of saving in a hard asset that is increasing in purchasing power significantly over the long term are those who build truly great things. Things that outlast those who build them. Great art, great monuments, great institutions were all built by men who were afforded the time to experience leisure. Partly because they were leveraging hard money as their savings and the place they stored the profits reaped from their entrepreneurial endeavors.

If you squint and look into the future a couple of decades, it isn't hard to see a reality like this manifesting. As more people begin to save in Bitcoin, the forces of supply and demand will continue to come into play. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, there are around 8 billion people on this planet, and as more of those 8 billion individuals decide that bitcoin is the best savings vehicle, the price of bitcoin will rise.

When the price of bitcoin rises, it makes all other goods cheaper in bitcoin terms and, again, expands the entrepreneurial opportunity. The best part about this feedback loop is that even non-holders of bitcoin benefit through higher real wages and faster tech diffusion. The individuals and business owners who decide to hodl bitcoin will bring these benefits to the world whether you decide to use bitcoin or not.

This is why it is virtuous to hodl bitcoin. The potential for good things to manifest throughout the world increase when more individuals decide to hodl bitcoin. And as Michael very eloquently points out, this does not mean that people will not spend their bitcoin. It simply means that they have standards for the things that they will spend their bitcoin on. And those standards are higher than most who are fully engrossed in the high velocity trash economy have today.

In my opinion, one of those higher causes worthy of a sats donation is nostr:nprofile1qyfhwumn8ghj7enjv4jhyetvv9uju7re0gq3uamnwvaz7tmfdemxjmrvv9nk2tt0w468v6tvd3skwefwvdhk6qpqwzc9lz2f40azl98shkjewx3pywg5e5alwqxg09ew2mdyeey0c2rqcfecft . Consider donating so they can preserve and disseminate vital information about bitcoin and its foundations.

The Shell Game: How Health Narratives May Distract from Vaccine Risks

In our recent podcast, Dr. Jack Kruse presented a concerning theory about public health messaging. He argues that figures like Casey and Callie Means are promoting food and exercise narratives as a deliberate distraction from urgent vaccine issues. While no one disputes healthy eating matters, Dr. Kruse insists that focusing on "Froot Loops and Red Dye" diverts attention from what he sees as immediate dangers of mRNA vaccines, particularly for children.

"It's gonna take you 50 years to die from processed food. But the messenger jab can drop you like Damar Hamlin." - Dr Jack Kruse

Dr. Kruse emphasized that approximately 25,000 children per month are still receiving COVID vaccines despite concerns, with 3 million doses administered since Trump's election. This "shell game," as he describes it, allows vaccines to remain on childhood schedules while public attention fixates on less immediate health threats. As host, I believe this pattern deserves our heightened scrutiny given the potential stakes for our children's wellbeing.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Big Pharma's alleged bioweapons program, the "Time Bank Account" concept, and how Bitcoin principles apply to health sovereignty.

Headlines of the Day

Aussie Judge: Bitcoin is Money, Possibly CGT-Exempt - via X

JPMorgan to Let Clients Buy Bitcoin Without Direct Custody - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Mubadala Acquires 384,239 sats | $408.50M Stake in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF - via X

---

Take the First Step Off the Exchange

Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.

Take control. Start with Bitkey.

Use the promo code “TFTC20” during checkout for 20% off

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

I've been walking from my house around Town Lake in Austin in the mornings and taking calls on the walk. Big fan of a walking call.

---

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:

@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17

Descrição da empresa

Fundada em 1961, a WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, atuando principalmente no setor de bens de capital com soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação e tintas, para diversos setores, incluindo infraestrutura, siderurgia, papel e celulose, petróleo e gás, mineração, entre muitos outros.

A WEG se destaca em inovação pelo desenvolvimento constante de soluções para atender as grandes tendências voltadas a eficiência energética, energias renováveis e mobilidade elétrica. Com operações industriais em 17 países e presença comercial em mais de 135 países, a companhia possui mais de 47.000 mil colaboradores distribuídos pelo mundo.

Em 2024, a WEG atingiu faturamento líquido de R$38,0 bilhões, destes 57,0% proveniente das vendas realizadas fora do Brasil.

acao wege3

Vendendo soluções para os clientes

"Na febre do ouro, muito garimpeiros corriam atrás de ouro para ficar ricos. Enquanto isso, muita gente enriqueceu vendendo pás, roupas, bebidas, cigarros e mantimentos para eles…”

Em um mundo dominado cada vez mais por Inteligência Artificial, carros elétricos e tecnologias quânticas. A Wege segue se destacando por oferecer equipamentos e parte da estrutura pode detrás para que essas tecnologias possam existir. Focada em inovação e performance. A empresa oferece soluções de ponta a ponta para os mais variados setores da indústria.

Visão geral da empresa

A Wege atua no setor de máquinas e equipamentos. Se formos fazer um refino, podemos dizer que ela atua em subsetores tais como: motores, compressores e outros.

Mercado que atua

O setor de máquinas e equipamentos no Brasil em 2024 enfrentou um cenário desafiador, com uma queda na receita líquida, mas também mostrou sinais de recuperação e algumas perspectivas positivas em segmentos específicos e no início de 2025.

A WEG é gigante no mundo todo. Os caras têm fábricas e filiais em mais de 40 países, espalhados por todos os continentes. A estratégia dos caras é expandir sempre, comprando outras empresas e investindo pesado em mercados-chave. A empresa foca em: Expansão, inovação e sustentabilidade.

Mercado

Grana Alta: Em 2024, o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos valeu uns US$ 205,67 bilhões. Já a parte de motores elétricos, chegou a uns US$ 152,2 bilhões. A parada é que a automação industrial, que é a cara do futuro, estava em uns US$ 192,02 bilhões em 2024. É muita grana rolando!

As empresas estão investindo cada vez mais em IA (Inteligência artificial), IOT (internet das coisas, robótica e fabricação sustentável.

Perspectiva de crescimento A parada é que esse mercado tá com gás total pra crescer nos próximos anos, parceiro:

Máquinas e Equipamentos: A expectativa é que o mercado global de máquinas e equipamentos cresça cerca de 6,57% ao ano até 2033, podendo chegar a uns US$ 364,66 bilhões.

Motores Elétricos: Esse setor tá prometendo um crescimento de uns 6,3% ao ano até 2029, podendo bater uns US$ 206,4 bilhões. A demanda por carros elétricos tá puxando muito esse crescimento.

Automação Industrial: Essa é a cereja do bolo! A expectativa é que o mercado de automação industrial dispare uns 9,1% ao ano até 2033, alcançando uns US$ 420,49 bilhões. A busca por mais produtividade, menos erros e mais eficiência tá impulsionando essa onda.

Materia sobre carros eletricos

Oportunidades que o ativo traz

Na minha visão, as maiores oportunidades que a Wege nos traz são:

1. Equipamentos Eletroeletrônicos Industriais

   Esta área inclui os motores elétricos, drives e equipamentos e serviços de automação industrial e serviços de manutenção. Os motores elétricos e demais equipamentos têm aplicação em praticamente todos os segmentos industriais, em equipamentos como compressores, bombas e ventiladores.

2. Geração Transmissão e Distribuição de Energia (GTD)

   Os produtos e serviços incluídos nesta área são os geradores elétricos para usinas hidráulicas e térmicas (biomassa), turbinas hidráulicas (PCH e CGH), aerogeradores, transformadores, subestações, painéis de controle e serviços de integração de sistemas.

3. Motores Comerciais e Appliance

   O foco de atuação nesta área é o mercado de motores monofásicos para bens de consumo durável, como lavadoras de roupas, aparelhos de ar condicionado, bombas de água, entre outros.

cotacao wege3

Desde Janeiro/25, podemos observar que o gráfico teve uma queda no seu preço. Contudo, continua se mantendo acima da ema200 e com ótimo volume negociado. Isso tudo caracteriza que a tendência majoritária ainda é compradora. Então, devemos pensar em atuar somente nesse sentido.

Riscos

Os maiores riscos que vejo hoje, para uma empresa tão sólida como Wege são:

1. Instabilidade Econômica Global e Regional, qualquer flutuação em mercado chave atuante pode representar um risco.
2. Inflação e Custo de Insumos, principalmente aço e cobre que são matérias prima base.
3. Políticas Tarifárias e Protecionismo, se o homem laranja dos EUA impor tarifas. Pode afetar sim os negócios da empresa como um todo.

trump

Catalisadores

Na minha visão, os catalisadores da empresa. Que impulsionam e continuaram dando força a ela são:

distribuicao receita

• Forte diversificação de receita, 53% vem em dólar.
• Boa perspectiva do aumento do valor do dólar. Isso representa mais caixa.
• As aquisiçõess feitas recentemente, que vão impulsionar a receita da empresa.

aquisicao wege

Faq

Qual foi o desempenho da WEGE3 nas últimas 52 semanas?

13.95% foi desempenho das ações da WEGE3 até o momento.

WEGE3 paga dividendos? Qual o Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3?

Sim, WEGE3 (WEG) paga dividendos e juros sobre capital próprio (JCP). O Dividend Yield (DY) da WEGE3 tem variado ao longo do tempo, mas geralmente se encontra entre 1,4% e 1,8%, dependendo da cotação atual das ações e dos valores de dividendos e JCP distribuídos.

O que é a WEG? Qual o setor de atuação da WEG?

A WEG é uma empresa global de equipamentos eletroeletrônicos, que atua principalmente no setor de bens de capital. A empresa se destaca por suas soluções em máquinas elétricas, automação, tintas e sistemas de energia, com foco em eficiência energética e sustentabilidade.

Quais produtos a WEG fabrica?

A WEG produz uma vasta gama de produtos e soluções, abrangendo desde equipamentos elétricos e eletrônicos até tintas e vernizes.

Qual é o P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3?

O P/L (Preço sobre Lucro) da WEGE3, conforme indicadores de mercado, está em torno de 29,32.

Bio

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Disclaimer

Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!

Referencia

https://api.mziq.com/mzfilemanager/v2/d/50c1bd3e-8ac6-42d9-884f-b9d69f690602/161a9930-5b12-3b03-758b-3b6d2b725211?origin=1

https://www.fundamentus.com.br/detalhes.php?papel=WEGE3&h=1

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/perfil-corporativo/

https://ri.weg.net/a-weg/por-que-a-weg/

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/auto/carros-eletrificados-registram-85-de-aumento-nas-vendas-de-2024/

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Why
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@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Phasellus erat metus, suscipit et nisi a, dignissim luctus risus\ Nam eleifend aliquet aliquam

Curabitur vulputate velit elit, sit amet euismod nibh venenatis et

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Aliquam eu turpis sed enim ultricies scelerisque\ Duis posuere congue faucibus

Praesent pretium orci ante, et faucibus lectus euismod a

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Vestibulum a nunc a sapien aliquam rhoncus\ Sed sem turpis, scelerisque sed augue ut, faucibus blandit lectus

Maecenas commodo, augue in placerat lacinia, lorem libero convallis mi, eu fringilla velit arcu id sem. In ac metus vitae sapien dignissim luctus

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Ovaj post sam objavio 24.01.2024. godine na Redditu povodom tri decenije od uvođenja Novog dinara kao rešenja za hiperinflaciju u Saveznoj Republici Jugoslaviji na šta su pojedini besni nokoineri sa te društvene mreže osuli drvlje i kamenje na mene. Od starih budalaština da je Bitkoin bezvredan, da nije oblik novca već finansijsko ulaganje, preko pravdanja svrhe inflacije, sve do potpune nemoći da se argumentima opovrgne nepobitna istina i pozivanja moderatora da me banuju. 🙃

Cena Bitkoina tada je bila oko $40.000. :)

Osim glavnog posta, ovde ću navesti i moje odgovore na neutemeljene i neinformisane tvrdnje besnih nokoinera. :) Da se sačuva od zaborava!

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Juče se navršilo 30 godina "Deda Avramove reforme".

Dan kada je rođen novi dinar, a Deda Avram sasekao hiperinflaciju

Kako nas je deda Avram spasio pre 30 godina: Neverovatno svedočenje tvorca „super dinara“ o jednoj od najgorih godina u istoriji Srbije

Dva jajeta – nedeljna profesorska plata: Kako se živelo u hiperinflaciji i šta je uradio Avramović

Vikipedija: Jugoslovenski dinar

„U julu '93. godine u Jugoslaviji nisi mogao skoro ništa da kupiš i niko za dinare nije hteo ništa da prodaje“, pisao je Avramović. Centralno-bankarska prevara se nastavlja jer je već do kraja 1995. dinar oslabio prema marki za 70% (1 dinar = 3.4 DM), a u decembru 2000. je taj kurs već bio 30.5 dinara za 1 DM (-96.7% od uvođenja novog dinara). To samo pokazuje da redenominacija valute tj. "brisanje nula" nije nikako čudo i viđano je puno puta kroz istoriju)

Ako je reformom iz januara '94 god. 1 novi dinar vredeo kao 1 nemačka marka, zatim od 2002. uveden evro čime je realna vrednost marke (samim tim i dinara) prepolovljena, a danas 1 EUR vredi oko 117 RSD, to znači da je "deda Avramov dinar" prema evru već obezvređen 59.91 puta za 30 godina. Dakle devalvacija dinara od 5991% od 1994. godine, a svakako još veća izražena kroz dobra i usluge jer su i nemačka marka do 2002. i evro od svog uvođenja iste godine prošli kroz sopstvenu inflaciju. Sam evro je izgubio oko 38% vrednosti od 2002. godine. Tako da se može reći da i "deda Avramov dinar" već uveliko prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju koja je samo razvučena na mnogo duži vremenski period (ne brinite - znam "zvaničnu" definiciju hiperinflacije - još jedan "gaslighting" centralno-bankarskog kartela da zabašuri šta se iza brda valja). Jer šta je inflacija od preko 5991% nego višedecenijska hiperinflacija?! Kako ne shvata gigantske razmere ove prevare?!

ISPRAVKA: Dinar nije nominalno izgubio 23400% (234x) vrednosti prema nemačkoj marki/evru od 1994. godine, već 59.91x odnosno 5991%. I danas na sajtu NBS postoji zvanični srednji kurs marke prema dinaru od 59,91:1. Realno, obezvređivanje dinara i evra prema robama i uslugama je puno veće, pošto su cene roba i usluga izražene u evrima ubrzo udvostručene u periodu nakon uvođenja evra. Hvala članu DejanJwtq na ispravci i izvinjenje svima od mene zbog greške.

Dafiment i Jugoskandik ("Dafina i Jezda") su bili samo državna konstrukcija da se izvuku devize iz ruku naivnih investitora da bi te devize nešto kasnije poslužile kao tobožnja rezerva za novi dinar. Ova gigantska prevara je unapred bila planirana, a Deda Avram iskorišćen kao marioneta tadašnjeg režima.

Inače lista država koje su izvršile redenominaciju valute kroz "brisanje nula" je poprilično dugačka i radi se o uobičajenoj pojavi kroz istoriju još od Haitija 1813. godine, a poslednji put su to uradile Sijera Leone i Kolumbija 2021. godine. Odavno je zaboravljeno da je (SR) Jugoslavija devedesetih to učinila još 1990. (10.000:1), 1992. (10:1), 1993. (1.000.000:1) i 1994. pre Avramovića (1.000.000.000∶1) ali je ovaj dinar trajao samo 23 dana. Tako da Deda Avram nije izmislio toplu vodu.

U SFRJ je izvršena jedna redenominacija 1966. godine u odnosu 10.000:1.

Wikipedia: Redenomination

Kome i dalje nije jasno zašto Bitkoin neka više puta pažljivo pročita ove tekstove iznad: oblik novca koji se ne može redenominirati, veoma lako konfiskovati i izdavati bez ikakve kontrole i pokrića. Potpuno nezavistan od kaprica korumpiranih i od realnosti otuđenih političara i centralnih bankara. Veoma je bitno da postoji ovakav oblik novca koji nije podložan ovakvim manipulacijama od strane ljudskog faktora i da postoji slobodan izbor da se taj oblik novca odabere za štednju i transakcije: barem od strane onih koji ga razumeju, ovi koji ne žele da razumeju neka i dalje pristaju da budu pljačkani - njima ionako nema pomoći.

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Komentari

brainzorz: Da, ali ako cemo realno bitkoin ne sluzi kao oblik novca, vec kao finansijsko ulaganje.

Bar je tako za nas i vecinu ljudi po svetu u praktičnom smislu. Jer 99.99% ljudi ili koliko vec prime platu u svojoj lokalnoj valuti, trose istu na redovan zivot, a ostatak (ako ga ima) investiraju. Slazem se da lokalne valute imaju svoj neki rizik, koji je veci u banana drzavi i da cuvanje svog kapitala u turbulentnom periodu u istoj je jako losa ideja.

Kada tako posmatras onda se mogu vuci pararele izmedju ostalih aseta, poput ETFova na primer i onda dolazimo do gomile problema sa bitkoinom.

@BTCSRB: Bitkoin se ne može porediti sa ETF-ovima pošto ETF-ove i ostale investicione instrumente ne možeš koristiti kao novac jer oni nisu "bearer assets" kao što jeste BTC. BTC eliminiše potpuno inflaciju (jer džabe ti keš u slamarici kao "bearer asset" kada je podložan inflaciji) i potrebu za posrednikom kod elektronskih plaćanja.

brainzorz: Ali on to eleminise samo u teoriji, sad da odem u pekaru, moram platiti u lokalnoj valuti, sad da li cu prodati bitkoin ili etf, prilicno je slicno.

Jedino sto mogu bitkoin zamenuti uzivo (ilegalno) sa nekim, pa tu jeste zamenjen posrednik. Ali provizije povlacenja su uglavnom zanemarljive, naspram ostalih parametara investicionog sredstva.

Neke stvari se mogu direktno platiti za bitkoin, ali to je ekstremno retko u stvarnom zivotu vecine ljudi.

@BTCSRB: Slažem se ali u uslovima hiperinflacije i visoke inflacije kakvu danas imamo u Argentini, Venecueli, Zimbabveu, Libanu, Turskoj itd. sve više ljudi direktno vrši transakcije u kriptovalutama, naročito "stablecoinima" poput USDT Tethera. Priznajem da u tim transakcijama BTC zaostaje upravo zbog volatilnosti ali je vršenje brzih i jeftinih transakcija svakako moguće putem Lightning mreže. Sve te lokalne valute su izgubile značajnu vrednost i prema USDT i prema BTC-u, odnosno BTC konstantno probija rekordnu vrednost kada se denominuje u tim valutama. I u tim državama je adopcija kriptovaluta najraširenija.

HunterVD: Kako valuta u koju se upumpavaju nepostojeci dolari i evri moze biti realna i dobra. A USDT tek da ne spominjem. Mozes uvek revi jer joj ljudi veruju, al ta vera u nesto ide samo do odredjenog nivoa.

@BTCSRB: Godinama kupujem BTC od svake plate, praktično štedim u njemu i kupovna moć mi vremenom raste denominirana u evrima i dinarima. To isto rade na desetine hiljada ljudi širom sveta. Kako su ti realni dinari i evri koje ubacujem svakog meseca koje sam zaradio od svog realnog rada - "nepostojeći"?

Kako dolari i evri koji se štampaju ni iz čega mogu biti realni i dobri kao valuta?

HunterVD: Pa eto bas to. Ulaze se nepostojeci novac u BTC i onda se prica o nekoj novoj valuti. Nije sija nego vrat, BTC ima jedino vrednost dok se upumpava taj lazni novac u njega. FIAT novac kolko tolko nastaje radom i proizvodnjom dobara, ne sav FIAT novac al neki deo, dok se BTC zasniva skroz na upumpavanje tog istog FIAT novca i dobroj volji i zeljama da magicne brojke idu navise.

@BTCSRB: Itekako je moguće izraziti cenu svih ostalih dobara i usluga kroz BTC i postojanje i vrednost BTC-a uopšte ne zavisi od fiat novca. Štaviše, gotova sva dobra i usluge dugoročno postaju jeftiniji kada se mere kroz BTC. Sutra kada bi fiat novac nestao BTC bi i dalje imao vrednost, čak i veću nego danas.

https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/

HunterVD: Naravno da je moguce izraziti cene svakodnevnih proizvoda u BTCu. Cene svakodnevnih proizvoda je moguce izraziti u cemu god pozelis, evo npr broj radnih sati koji je potreban da se proizvede taj proizvod i onda se uporedi sa cenom radnih sati i cene na polici, mozes ga uracunavati i u dobrima , jedan iphone kosta tolko i tolko KG juneceg mesa..... nista cudno. Takodje cene proizvoda pokazuju pad u odnosu sa BTCom jer je BTC masivno porastao u poslednjih 5-6 godina. Sta ce biti kad BTC stagnira ili pada kako se u tom periodu odnose cene, a da BTC je store of value i namenjen je samo da se cuva izvinte molim vas moja greska. Ni druge kripto valute nisu nista bolje. Ljudi koji su zaradili na BTCu svaka cast eto imali su pameti i srece , al sad kako je cena sve veca, inflacija sve losija i kamatne stope sve vise postace sve teze i teze dolaziti do novca a kamo li intvestirati ga u nesto rizicno ko kripto valute tako da ce i BTC sve manje rasti sto zbog velicine market cap-a sto zbog toga sto ljudi i firme imaju sve manje novca za ulagati. Dal ce btc moci da se uzbori sa inflacijom i losim uslovima to tek treba da se vidi. Tako da videcemo u narednom periodu koliko ce se ta priva o BTC kao store of value i nacinu odbrane od inflacije obistiniti. Licno ne verujem da ce BTC ikad biti zvanicno sredstvo placanja.

@BTCSRB: Cena svega se može izraziti kroz sve ostalo ali šta od svega toga najbolje vrši funkciju novca? BTC bolje vrši funkciju novca u većini okolnosti od gotovo svih stvari.

Šta će biti sa BTC videće se i oni koji veruju u njega će biti najzaslužniji za njegov uspeh jer su obezbeđivali potražnju kada su kola išla nizbrdo i za to biti asimetrično nagrađeni, ali će i puno izgubiti ako se pokaže da nisu u pravu. Pukovnici ili pokojnici. Po meni je to cilj zbog koga vredi rizikovati, pa i bankrotirati a cilj je da se centralno-bankarski kartel učini manje relevantnim.

Znaš i sam da fiat sistem ne može da preživi i izbegne imploziju bez konstantnog uvećanja mase novca u opticaju i zato se uopšte ne plašim za BTC i spavam mirno. BTC sigurno neće rasti istom brzinom kao prvih 15 godina ali moje očekivanje je svakako ubedljivo nadmašivanje svetske inflacije i obezvređivanja. Ne vidim kako sistem može da opstane bez novog QE kada god se on desi, u suprotnom imamo deflatornu spiralu.

Ne mora da bude zvanično sredstvo plaćanja, dovoljno da meni kao pojedincu služi za to dok god ima ljudi koji ga prihvataju, a ima ih puno. I da niko u tome ne može da nas spreči.

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loldurrr: Ali i BTC je postao, u neku ruku, berzanska roba. Imaš market cap izražen u dolarima, koji je danas, npr. 2 triliona $, za mjesec dana 500 milijardi. Isto kao i dolar, samo volatilnije. Zato i kažem, da je to sve rezultat ponude i tražnje. Hipotetički, ja da imam milion BTC i odlučim to danas prodati, enormno ću oboriti cenu BTC. Ako je to valuta nezavisna od vanjskih uticaja - zašto će pasti toliko, kada imamo ograničenu količinu BTC-a. Svima je i dalje u podsvesti vrednost BTC izražena u USD, tako da je to isto kao i dinar, franak, akcija CocaCola i sl. Bar za sada...

A mogućnosti za korištenje BTC za robna plaćanja su mizerna. Ima li na vidiku mogućnosti da se vrednost nafte počne izražavati u BTC?

@BTCSRB: Meriti Bitkoin direktno prema robama i uslugama je itekako moguće i kada ga tako meriš, a ne prema fiat novcu, dugoročno cene gotovo svih roba i usluga padaju prema Bitkoinu. Cene svega izražene kroz BTC neće nestati ni u slučaju nestanka fiat novca, dolar sutra da prestane da postoji nikoga ne sprečava da izražava cene svega kroz BTC. Dolar i ostale valute nisu potrebni Bitkoinu.

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Unlikely-Put-5524: Imam samo jedno pitanje za one "koji vide iza svega" i pronikli su bankarsku prevare da porobi čovečanstvo... Kako ne postoji mogućnost da je BTC i kripto nastao iz iste kuhinje i predstavlja ultimativni način za porobljavanje?

2% novčanika poseduje 95% svog BTC-a koji nije izgubljen. Znači da centralizacija može biti maksimalna...

@BTCSRB: Količina BTC-a u posedu ne daje kontrolu nad pravilima protokola i većinski vlasnici ne mogu da štampaju nove novčiće i tako uvećaju konačnu količinu u opticaju. Mogu samo da kratkoročno obore cenu i tako samo ostanu sa manje BTC-a koji imaju pošto će tržište vremenom apsorbovati te dampovane koine.

Unlikely-Put-5524: A mogu i dugoročno da obore cenu. Hajde da kažemo da imaš sada 10 BTC-a gde svaki vredi 40k

Veliki dumpu-ju ceo svoj bag u kontinutitetu kao što sad radi GS i posle godinu dana tvoj BTC sad vredi 4k, zašto misliš da bi ljudi nastavili da ga drže? Posebno ako znamo da ga 97% kupuje da bi zaradili, a ne zato što žele da ga koriste kao sredstvo plaćanja.

Ja bih ore BTC gledao kao commodity, jer sa svojim deflatornim svojstvima ne može biti valuta za plaćanje.

Takođe postoji i doomsday scenario gde jednostavno mogu svi da se dogovore da je ilegalan i to je onda to. Ovo mi deluje kao gotovo neverovatno, ali po meni je bilo koji maksimalizam potpuno detinjasto razmišljanje.

@BTCSRB: Pa padao je toliko puta za preko 70% i uvek se vraćao jer si uvek imao ljude koji su bili spremni da ga kupuju po bilo kojoj ceni, uključujući i mene. Pošto se ne može štampati, na kraju će ovi prodavci ostati bez BTC-a za prodaju i tržište apsorbovati čak i njihov "sell pressure". A ovi veliki koji drže tolike količine itekako dobro znaju vrednost toga što poseduju i nema smisla da svu količinu koju drže prodaju za inflatorni novac - prodavaće da bi finansirali svoj životni stil ili investiraju u biznise ili će ga koristiti kao kolateral za fiat pozajmice - ako raspolažu tolikim količinama i mogu da kontrolišu tržište nemaju strah da će im kolateral biti likvidiran.

Većina ljudi su fiat maksimalisti samim tim što su 100% u fiat novcu pa ne razmišljaju u pravcu doomsday scenarija kakav je upravo bila hiperinflacija devedesetih.

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Romeo_y_Cohiba: Niko ti ne brani da ulažeš u bitcoin pod uslovom da znaš da je rizičniji od gotovog novca, štednje po viđenju, oročene štednje, obveznica, nekretnina, akcija, raznoraznih etfova, private equitya i derivata.

Drugim rečima ako ti je ok da danas uložiš 1000e, da za nedelju dana to vredi 500e, za mesec 1500 a za pola godina 300e ili 0 samo napred. Većini ljudi to nije ok.

Razlog zašto pamtimo Avrama je jer njegov dinar i dan danas koristimo. Prethodne uzastopne reforme nisu uspele kao što si i sam primetio.

Takođe, nije u pitanju "centralno-bankarska" prevara jer se ništa od toga ne bi desilo da ovom "odozgo" nisu zatrebale pare za finansiranje izvesnih stvari.

I dan danas, izvesni političar(i) izađu na TV i kažu da su "našli" novac za neki svoj genijalni plan i ljudi to puše. To u prevodu najčešće znači da će da nagna centralnu banku da mu doštampa novca i to nema veze sa bankama nego politikom..

@BTCSRB: Za investicione instrumente koje si naveo treba videti koliko su uspešno nadvladavali inflaciju prethodnih decenija i da li su očuvali kupovnu moć. Za štednju u banci i obveznice se i iz daleka vidi da nisu. US obveznice su u septembru imale drawdown od 48% od ATH iz 2020, a kao važe sa sigurnu investiciju. Čak i u momentu dospeća posle 10-30 godina jako teško čuvaju vrednost od inflacije.

A sada se zapitaj: da li zaista misliš da političari kontrolišu banke i bankare ili je možda obrnuto? Nisu političari ti koji su vlasnici krupnog kapitala.

Romeo_y_Cohiba: Ne investiraju svi na 10-30 godina za potrebe penzije. To je samo jedan od mnogo vidova i razloga investiranja. Nadvladavanje inflacije je isto tako samo jedan od kriterijuma. Samo pogledaš u šta jedan penzioni fond u SAD-u investira(hint: nije btc i nisu samo akcije). Npr. neki penzioni fondovi su od skoro počeli da investiraju u private equity ali isključivo do 15% veličine portfolija. Počeće i sa kriptom u nekom trenutku ali mogu da potpišem da će biti u još manjem procentu nego PE. Niko nije blesav da grune teško stečeni novac u nešto tako rizično osim u jako malim iznosima.

Ne znam ko koga kontroliše ali Avram je bio daleko manji baja od Slobe 90ih i pitao se za stvari samo u meri koliko mu je bio dozvoljeno da se pita. Ratovanje košta i finansira se štampanjem novca, nisu to neke neshvatljive stvari. Da ne pričam da smo bili pod apsolutnim sankcijama celog sveta.

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Virtual_Plenty_6047: Npr jedan od velikih uspeha Japana od pre par decenija je zahvaljujući devalvaciji njihove valute, pa samim tim izvoz im je bio relativno jeftin. Naš dinar je jak, i to odgovara uvozničkom lobiju.

Nažalost mi ionako ništa ne proizvodimo tako da ne verujem da bi nešto pomoglo ako bi devalvirali dinar. Al svakako ovo je jedna viša ekonomija za koju naši političari nisu dorasli.

@BTCSRB: Gde je običan čovek u tom velikom japanskom uspehu? Postali su zemlja starih i nesrećnih mladih ljudi koji ne mogu da pobegnu iz "hamster wheel-a". Imaju "debt to GDP" od preko 260%. Taj dug nikada neće vratiti, a uz to će povući u ambis pola sveta jer najveći držaoci američkog duga - 14.5%. Spolja gladac, iznutra jadac. Iako je malo degutantno da mi iz Srbije komentarišemo Japance, opet pitam: gde je prosečan Japanac u celoj ovoj igri?

Why Japan Is Facing a Financial Disaster

Preporučujem da pogledate dokumentarac "Princes of the Yen | The Hidden Power of Central Banks" snimljenom po istoimenoj knjizi profesora Riharda Vernera koji je otac kvantitativnog popuštanja (quantitative easing) i ekspert za japansku ekonomiju i bankarski sistem.

Virtual_Plenty_6047: Zato sam rekao od pre nekoliko decenija. Jer su do pre nekih 30 godina bili 50 godina ispred celog sveta, sad su 20 godina iza naprednog sveta. Japanci su svako specifični. Poenta mog komentara da postoji razlog za neke zemlje da oslabe svoju valutu, i može itekako dobro da radi ako se radi u sinergiji sa nekim drugim ekonomskim merama. Tako da odgovor na to opet pitam, ne znam gde je prosečni Japanac, uskoro tamo trebam da idem pa ću ti reći. :'D

Odgledao sam ja ovaj dokumentarac odavno, super je. Pročitao mnoge knjige, a ponajviše od Austrijske ekonomske škole gde su pojedinci (Hayek) bili prvi koji su zagovarali novu decentralizovanu valutu, bili su u toj školi mnogi koji su prvi pričali o problemu inflacije i šta je tačno inflacija, ali su bili i za kapitalizam. Ali ovo je zaista jedna visoka ekonomija, videćeš da nije baš sve tako jednostavno kao što misliš.

Malo si previše u kriptovalutama pa gledaš na sve drugo u ekonomiji sa prekorom, pogotovu na kapitalizam. Evo i ja sam sam dobro investiran u kripto (uglavnom u BTC) pa sam itekako svestan da sve to može na kraju da bude potpuna pizdarija.

p.s. Knjiga za preporuku: 23 stvari koje vam ne kazu o kapitalizmu

@BTCSRB: Nisam u kriptovalutama nego isključivo u BTC.

Nisam ja protiv kapitalizma samo što nije pravi kapitalizam kada ne postoji slobodno tržište novca, pa samim tim ne postoji uopšte slobodno tržište koliko god se činilo tako. Kada su ekonomski subjekti prisiljeni da koriste određeni oblik novca, a monetarna politika se centralno planira - po meni tu nema slobodnog tržišta niti kapitalizma. Npr. formiranje cene Bitkoina i transakcionih naknada je čisto slobodno tržište jer tu nema "bailout-a", a BTC mining industrija je pravi primer slobodnog tržišta u kapitalizmu. Čista ponuda i potražnja bez intervencionizma. Ako si neprofitabilan nema ti spasa i bankrotiraćeš i nema nikoga ko će ti priteći u pomoć. Niko nije "too big to fail".

Znam da sam se ovde usredsredio usko na jednu industriju ali se može primeniti na celokupnu ekonomiju. Države i centralne banke su suvišne i apsolutno pokvare sve čega se dotaknu pa će u slučaju potpune pizdarije odgovornost biti na njima, a ne na Bitkoinu i njegovim držaocima.

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kutija_keksa: Evo zašto btc nije pogodan kao valuta:

-Volatilna vrednost. Vrednost btc se menja i do 200% godišnje, dok dolar ne trpi inflaciju vecu od 10% godišnje (mada je u redovnim uslovima tipa 3%). Čak i dinar, ako gledaš realnu kupovnu moć u prodavnici nema volatilnost preko 30% na godišnjem nivou (jedno 7 puta nižu od BTC) Ako danas kupim BTC u vrednosti od 15 USD ne znam da li ću sutra moći da kupim 10 ili 20 USD za isti taj BTC.

-„Gas fees” koji se plaćaju na svaku transakciju, u poređenjusa kešom koji nema takvih problema.

-Spor transfer novca. Arhitektura blockchaina ne dozvoljava mreži da procesuira više od 10 transakcija po sekundi, što značida na transakciju možete čekati i po nekoloo sati, u poređenju sa kešom (bez odugovlačenja) ili debitnim karticama (10 sekundi do 10 minuta). Visa i MasterCard procesuiraju hiljadu puta više transakcija po sekundi.

-Retko ko eksplicitno prima BTC, tako da ćete plaćati menjačnici na kursu u oba smera, i pritom čekati menjačnicu.

-Podložan je manipulacijama velikih igrača poput Ilona Maska i velikih banki koje su u zadnjih pet godina debelo uložile u kripto. Fiat je na milosti države i njenih građana, dok je BTC na milost privatnih investitora. Kome verujete više?

-SVE BTC transakcije su jsvne, ako neko zna koji novčanik je vaš lako zna i koliko para ste kada slali kome, dok fizičke novčanice nemaju taj problem.

-Vrednost i upotreljivost BTC ne garantuje niko, dok vrednost i upotrebljivost fiat valute barem donekle garantuje država. Na primer, Srbija garantuje da je dinar upotrebljiv jer zahteva da vodu, struju, poreze, namete i takse plaćaš u dinarima, a i javni sektor (10% čitavog stanovništva) isplaćuje isključivo u dinarima.

OP očigledno ima jako ostrašćenu ideološku perspektivu... Ja nisam stručnjak, ali je moj otac pisao naučne radove o blockchainu dok je bio na doktorskim studijama, još kad je pomisao o BTC vrednijem od sto dolada bila smešna, tako da znam nešto malo kroz priče sa njim. Uostalom, sve o čemu pričam lako je proveriti pomoću javnih podataka. Ono što OP piše je jednim delom tačno, ali su iznete samo one informacije koje idu u prilog BTC.

Kripto kao pobuna protiv fiata, centralnih banaka i vlada je imao ideološke korene kod anarhista na internetu devedestih, međutim od njihovih belih papira i špekulacija dobili smo nešto što je kao valuta beskorisno. BTC može biti investicija, ako su ljudi iskreni sa sobom, ali ideja o valuti je prevaziđena. Ako i neka kripto valuta drži do toga onda je to Monero koji bar ima anonimnost.

@BTCSRB: Ne ulazeći u sve iznete navode taksativno, ipak moram da prokomentarišem neke od nepreciznih ili netačnih navoda.

Transakcione naknade kod Bitkoina se ne zovu "gas fees" već "transaction fees". Kod keša nema takvih problema ali ga ne možete poslati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika. To mora da ima svoju cenu pošto BTC majneri moraju da imaju neki podsticaj da uključe nečiju transakciju u blok koji je ograničene veličine. BTC "fee market" je najslobodnije tržište na svetu. Fiat novac nemate mogućnost da pošaljete na daljinu bez posrednika koji takođe naplaćuje nekada dosta skupe naknade.

Besmisleno je porediti blokčejn kao "settlement layer" sa Visom i Mastercardom koje ne služe za finalno poravnanje. Glavni Bitkoin blokčejn se može pre uporediti s SWIFT-om ili FedWire-om kod kojih je jednom poravnata transakcija nepovratna, a Mastercard/Visa sa BTC "Lightning Network-om" koji služi za brza i jeftina plaćanja. Otac je trebalo da Vas nauči o Lightning mreži, kako funkcioniše i da je sposobna da procesuira više miliona transakcija u sekundi. Lightning mreža takođe nudi veći nivo privatnosti od glavnog blokčejna ali puno manju sigurnost.

Ne bih se složio da je fiat na milosti isključivo države i građana, samo ću spomenuti Crnu sredu iz septembra 1992. godine i spekulativni napad na britansku funtu.

BTC transakcije su javne ali su pseudonimne što znači da je jako teško utvrditi identitet ukoliko adresa nije povezana sa identitetom korisnika. Generisanje BTC adrese ne zahteva nikakvu identifikaciju ("krvnu sliku") za razliku od otvaranja bankovnog računa. Može se generisati neograničen broj adresa i na razne načine prekinuti i zamaskirati veza transakcija između njih radi očuvanja privatnosti. Ponovo, fizičke novčanice ne možemo slati putem komunikacionog kanala bez posrednika, podložne su konfiskaciji, uništenju i obezvređivanju.

Upotrebljivost Bitkoina garantuje "open source" kod, energija, matematika i kriptografija. To su mnogo jače garancije nego obećanja bilo koje države koja su toliko puta u istoriji izigrale poverenje sopstvenog stanovništva - poput Jugoslavije devedesetih.

Ja sam BTC spomenuo kao potencijalno rešenje za (hiper)inflaciju tek u kraćem delu na kraju teksta, a od Vas i od ostalih komentatora sam dobio nesrazmeran odgovor usmeren na Bitkoin, a puno manje usmeren na navode iz najvećeg dela posta.

Tako ste i vi izneli isključivo informacije koje ne idu u prilog BTC-a, a potpuno ignorisali sve očigledne nedostatke fiat novca (kako u fizičkom, tako i u digitalnom obliku) koji su se i ispoljili tokom hiperinflacije devedesetih, a ispoljavaju se i dan-danas.

Svako dobro!

kutija_keksa: Zato su i „Gas fees” pod navodnicima.

Ne vidim zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima.

Ali, čak i da je dobro imati slobodno tržište, morate primetiti da BTC kopanje nije tako slobodno. Postojanje ASIC mašina znači da se kopanje prevashodno isplati velikim igračima (ne mislim na likove sa 3 riser kartice u PC, nego na kineze sa skladištima teških preko milion u opremi). Takođe, te velike operacije organi vlasti mogu zaustaviti kad im se prohte (Kina).

Jako je teško izvući BTC anonimno bez gubitka kod menjača -- pojedinca ili non KYC institucije.

Što se upotrebljivosti BTC tiče, šta meni garantuje da ću imati na šta da potrošim BTC? To je ključno pitanje. A kasa Jugoslovenski fiat nije bio upotebljiv, vidim da Nemački jeste. Isto tako, mislim da će USD biti upotrebljiv dugo, a kada USD bude neupotrebljiv društvo će ionako biti u apokalipsi gde papir nije važan koliko i hrana, utočište, voda, radio, municija, lekovi i vatreno oružje.

Naravno da iznosim samo informacije koje proizilaze iz nedostataka, to je balans postu i komentarima. Da su ljudi samo blatili kripto moj komentar bi mnogo više ličio na originalni post nego na moj prošli komentar. Ja se sa mnogim tvrdnjama u postu slažem delimično ili potpuno, samo želim da pružim kontekst za tumačenje toga.

Ideološki su mi Cryptopunks potpuno zanimljivi, ali cinizam je opravdan kada se u obzir uzme priča. Ljudi su želeli da se odupru bankama, vladama, kontroli i prismotri. Izmislili su tehnologiju. Počeli su da koriste i popularizuju tu tehnologiju. U prostor su ušle banke i vlade, kupovanjem, prodajom i praćenjem samog tržišta (danas sve velike menjačnice imaju KYC procedure). Kao u matriksu, kontrolisana opozicija. Ok, ovo je lična teorija zavere u koju ni ja ne verujem u potpunosti.

Ako govorimo o crypto kao valuti mislim da je XMR mnogo bolja VALUTA od BTC, dok je mnogo gora investicija. Jednostavno se slažem sa političkim i ideološkim ciljevima pionira kripto valuta, ali smatram da su oni ogromnim delom iznevereni zbog ulaska banaka i država u celu priču, te njihova stara rešenja više ne rešavaju originalne probleme.

@BTCSRB: BTC kao neutralni novac je za svakoga, pa i za bankare i države. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga kupe na tržištu i stave ga u kakav god instrument, pa i ETF. Ne možemo ih sprečiti da ga konfiskuju od onih koji nisu dobro obezbedili svoje ključeve. Države su regulisale ono što su mogle, poput menjačnica, kroz AML/KYC procedure ali kakve to veze ima sa BTC-om? Na protokol kao protokol nisu mogle da utiču.

Ko želi i dalje može koristiti BTC kako je i prvobitno predviđeno - za p2p transakcije i skladištenje vrednosti u "self custody-u". Bitkoin je i dalje "bearer asset" otporan na cenzuru i konfiskaciju. Ne vidim da je taj pravac promenjen samo zato što su ušle banke i države. Možda nije u duhu Bitkoina da ga kupuju fondovi pa ga prodaju upakovanog u ETF. Najmanje je u duhu bitkoina da se nekome zabrani da ga kupuje.

Kako to mislite "ne vidite zašto bi bilo dobro imati „slobodno tržište” kada se radi o kopačima? Na decentralizaciji mininga se radi (StratumV2 protkol, Ocean pool...), a kineski primer je samo pokazatelj koliko je otporno: nakon zabrane raširilo se dodatno po svetu, a u Kini se i dalje nalazi 21% hešrejta. Majneri imaju veoma male margine profita zbog same prirode rudarenja i halvinga pa će bilo kakav "fck around" poput cenzure transakcija verovatno značiti bankrot.

Možemo do sutra pričati o XMR vs BTC i navešću puno razloga zašto XMR ne može i neće zaživeti kao novac, a pre svega je manjak decentralizacije (neograničena veličina blokčejna) i otpornost na državni napad - sve što Bitkoin ima. Kada je novac u pitanju pobednik nosi sve i tu je Monero već izgubio, dok će BTC poboljšanu privatnost obezbediti na ostalim nivoima, sidechainovima itd (Lightning, Liquid, Cashu, Fedimint, Ark i ko zna šta sve što još i ne postoji - nivo developmenta u Bitkoin prostoru je ogroman).

Dolar će uvek u nekom obliku biti upotrebljiv ali ne znači da će zauvek ostati svetska rezervna valuta, kao što i danas postoji funta ali odavno nije više ono što je bila na vrhuncu Britanske imperije.

kutija_keksa: Pa ti protokoli sprečavaju pljude da anonimno kupe BTC.

Mislim, BTC realno ima neku primenu, ali ja ga danas npr. imam čisto kao neku malu investicijicu, i to još od doba kad je kopanje sa 2 grafičke u kućnom PC bilo isplativo po skupoj struji. Ali BTC prosto nije dobra alternativa fizičkom novcu na nivou države zbog volatilnosti i manjka kontrole. Jedna ogromna poluga države je puštanje u promet novog novca, i tako se kontroliše inflacija, pored menjanja kamatnih stopa. Bez mogućnosti štampe gubi se i taj faktor kontrole. A inflacija od 2-3% godišnje je zdrava, dok je za ekonomiju deflacija (kojoj je BTC bar delimično sklon) haos, jer smanjuje ekonomsku aktivnost i investicije...

Što se tiče državnog napada na XMR, misliš na to kako jedna država može da realistično sprovede 51% napad?

XMR nije vrhovna valuta ali meni se sviđa kako za njega nema ASIC mašina, kako je anoniman u smislu da ne možeš lako da provališ ko kome koliko i kada šalje šta... Mislim da će XMR sigurno u toj privacy niši zameniti neka druga valuta kroz 10-15 godina koja ima bolji algoritam i tehnologiju...

Dobra dosetka za veličinu blockchaina, ali ona je trenutno 160GB cela / 50 GB pruned, tako nešto. Sve dok nije preko 10TB (100x) veća može je pohraniti najveći hard disk namenjen „običnim ljudima”, a kad se dođe do tad verovatno će i cene tih diskova biti pristupačnije nego danas. Sa druge strane, agresivan pruning je takođe opcija. A da ne govorimo o sidechainovima koji takođe postoje za XMR.

Da, to za dolar je i moja poenta, nekako će biti upotrebljiv uvek, dok je kripto neupotrebljiv bez neta, a i nema mnogo šta da se kupi kriptom u poređenju sa fiatom. I

@BTCSRB: Ima bezbroj načina da se nabavi non-KYC Bitkoin: coinjoin, coinmixing, rudarenje u non-KYC pulu, nabavka nekog drugog kripta putem KYC menjačnice pa "trustless atomic swap" za BTC, nabavka KYC BTC-a putem Lightning-a pa "submarine swap" on-chain, zatim nabavka bilo kog KYC kripta ili Lightning ili on-chain BTC-a pa swap na sidechain Liquid BTC gde su transakcije tajne slično XMR-u i nazad swap na on-chain. Naravno i stara narodska razmena na ulici. XMR se isto može koristiti za svrhu nabavke non-KYC Bitkoina. U svim ovim slučajevima se adrese koje su krajnje destinacije tih sredstava ne mogu ili jako teško povezati sa KYC identitetom korisnika. Više na: kycnot.me

Diskusija o tome da li je zdrava i potrebna inflacija i da li je uopšte potreban državni intervencionizam u ekonomiji je stara diskusija između Kejnzijanske i Austrijske ekonomske škole. Po meni svaka inflacija je pljačka. Da ne govorimo da centralni bankari ne snose nikakvu odgovornost za gubitak kontrole nad inflacijom koji se meri u stotinama procenata "omaška" jer kada je ciljana inflacija 2%, a imamo inflaciju od 10% to je onda promašaj od 500%. A svi vodeći centralni bankari su i dalje na svojim funkcijama od početka inflacije negde 2020. godine iako su izneverili sva očekivanja. Nisu izabrani od strane naroda i nemoguće ih je smeniti od strane naroda, a utiču na živote svih!

Usled tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti, prirodno stanje slobodnog tržišta je pad cena, a ne njihov konstantan rast kroz inflaciju. Ne postoji nikakva "poželjna" ili "neophodna" inflacija, svaka "ciljana" inflacija je pljačka koji onemogućava populaciju da uživa u plodovima sopstvene produktivnosti u obliku nižih cena svih roba i usluga. Bitkoin zbog svoje fiksne ponude novca u opticaju (21 milion novčića = apsolutna digitalna oskudnost) nameće ovu disciplinu slobodnog tržišta i tehnološkog napretka. Dok je postojeći dužnički fiat sistem dizajniran da krade plodove produktivnosti, Bitkoin omogućava populaciji da ih zadrži u obliku nižih cena.

Kada nema rasta cena, inflacija je 0% i cene su stabilne. Krađa i tada postoji, jer cene prirodno padaju zbog povećanja efikasnosti proizvodnje/usluga, gde bi se tada veca količina robe/usluga, takmičila za istu (fiksnu) količinu novča od 21M BTC-a.

Kakav je ishod ove diskusije nije bitno, bitno je da sada svako ima slobodu izbora kakav novac želi da koristi a ne da bude prisiljen da koristi isključivo inflatorni novac. Ako se neko ne slaže sa modernom monetarnom teorijom, sada ima alternativu koju nekada nije imao (zlato je odavno izgubilo bitku sa MMT) pre postojanja Bitkoina.

kutija_keksa: Neki od ovih non kyc nacina su mi vec bili poznati, neki nisu, ovo je bas informativan komentar.

A što je inflacija pljačka? Bez obzira na inflaciju, broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti, to što se one sada mogu zameniti za manje robe je druga priča. Da li je onda i zlato pljačka, jer neko kupi, na primer, 100g zlata danas, a sutra na tržištu cena zlata padne? Da li je onda pljačka i BTC, jer i danas i kad je BTC bio na vrhuncu cene imam isti broj satoshija, samo je danas njihova vrednost manja?

Ne vidim zašto bi centralni bankari snosili odgovornost zbog inflacije. Oni ugrobo imaju dve poluge za kontrolu inflacije: kamatne stope i štampanje novca. U realnosti na inflaciju utiče mnogo faktora na koje centralna banka nema uticaj, niti koje može da predvidi: pandemije, ratovi, državni budžeti i zaduživanja, trgovina u datoj valuti (i izvoz i uvoz), porast i pad produktivnosti... Oni imaju donekle uticaj, ali nisu svemoćni.

Što se tiče izbora, ovo već zalazi u politiku a ne u finansije, ali ni direktor pošte, ni direktor EPS, ni direktor vodovoda nisu birani na izborima na kojima glasaju svi, a utiču na živote svih!

Ne verujem u kripto kao spasioce kapitalizma ili pojedinca. Ovo je sada više politički, ali zaista mislim da u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, a da je kripto u najbolju ruku jedna mala stavka koja omogućava skladištenje stečenog kapitala (ovo se dobija ako prihvatimo sve kripto pozitivne teze), ali ne rešava problem radnika koji čine 95% društva i doprinose 99% vrednosti a kapitala kontrolišu višestruko manje.

Otkud znam, ono, da rezimiram: kripto je koristan alat koji još nije dostigao svoj vrhunac, ali neće nešto mnogo promeniti svet. To je neko moje viđenje.

@BTCSRB: Kako nije pljačka? Broj novčanica u novčaniku ostaje isti ali ukupan broj novca u opticaju se uvećava i tako obezvređuje tvoje novčanice. Inače, znaš vrlo dobro da fizički keš čini manje od 10% ukupnog novca u opticaju, a ostalo je digitalno. Dakle "money supply" se uvećava pritiskom na dugme tastature računara u FED/ECB/NBS... Neko stvara novac ni iz čega za koji svi moramo da radimo trošeći svoje dragoceno i ograničeno vreme na ovom svetu. Tako nam efektivno krade vreme pošto tvoj radni sat iz prošlosti konstantno može da kupi manje roba i usluga u budućnosti, a zbog tehnološkog napretka i rasta produktivnosti bi realno cene trebaju da budu niže vremenom

Kako možeš da porediš fiat, zlato i BTC u tom smislu? Vrednost fiata prevashodno smanjuje ljudska manipulacija sa strane ponude koja se uvek uvećava, dok je potražnja permanentno rastuća zbog zakona o "legal tenderu" i rasta privrede i broja stanovnika. Ovo sa BTC je strana potražnje koju reguliše slobodno tržište dok ukupna ponuda nije podložna ljudskoj manipulaciji. Dugoročno, vrednost zlata i BTC raste sa rastućom potražnjom jer nema manipulacije ponude.

Centralni bankari će optužiti sve druge faktore da bi skrenuli pažnju sa svoje odgovornosti za inflaciju, a za ratove se može reći da su čak i saučesnici pošto tokovi novca mogu utvrditi veoma zanimljivu vezu između njih i vojno-industrijskog kompleksa. Na stranu to, dolarska monetarna masa je samo između februara i aprila 2020. uvećana za 1.39 biliona/triliona što je više nego ukupna monetarna masa iz 2008-09 krize. U krizi 2008-09 su od septembra 2008. do januara 2009. naštampali 803 milijarde i tako uvećali monetarnu masu za 88% sa 909 milijardi na 1712 milijardi - to znači da su 4 meseca naštampali skoro isto novca kao tokom celih 95 prethodnig godina sopstvenog postojanja Federalnih rezervi. Te 2020. su i potpuno ukinuli obavezne rezerve u komercijalnim bankama.

ECB je naštampala 1T evra "zbog kovida". A kao naštampali su jer je bila zatvorena celokupna privreda, pa što ste tako agresivno zatvarali privredu - trebalo je da pustite ljude da rade a ne da se igrate Mao Ce Tunga. I uprkos nezapamćenom štampanju ti isti centralni bankari su nazivali inflaciju "prolaznom" - dakle ni zrnce odgovornosti.

Ako u kapitalizmu prosečna osoba nema slobode, šta reći za komunizam gde ne da nema slobode nego nema ni života pošto su komunistički režimi pobili na desetine miliona ljudi?

Na hipotetičkom BTC standardu zbog fiksne količine novca u opticaju bi se popravio položaj radnika jer kapitalisti ne mogu da beskonačno uvećavaju svoj BTC kapital i kupovna moć i radnika i kapitalista bi procentualno podjednako rasla i običan radnik bi imao mnogo bolje šanse da i sam postane kapitalista nego danas. Imao bi mogućnost da štedi od svoje plate jer mu novac ne bi gubio vrednost i u nekom trenutku bi iz svoje štednje finansirao neki biznis, a ne zaduživanjem. Tako bi se ravnomernije rasporedilo društveno bogatstvo ali ne centralnim planiranjem nego kroz slobodno tržište.

@ 3283ef81:0a531a33

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit\ enean magna lorem, dignissim et nisl a, iaculis eleifend dolor

uspendisse potenti

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Vivek Ramaswamy’s company bets on distressed bitcoin claims as its Bitcoin treasury strategy moves forward.

Strive Enterprises, an asset management firm co-founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, is exploring the acquisition of distressed bitcoin claims, with particular interest in around 75,000 BTC tied to the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate. This move is part of the company’s broader strategy to build a Bitcoin treasury ahead of its planned merger with Asset Entities.

According to a document filed on May 20 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Strive has partnered with 117 Castell Advisory Group to “identify and evaluate” distressed Bitcoin claims with confirmed legal judgments. Among these are approximately 75,000 BTC connected to Mt. Gox, with an estimated market value of $8 billion at current prices.

Essentially, Strive aims to acquire rights to bitcoins currently tied up in legal disputes, which can be purchased at a discount by those willing to take on the risk and wait for eventual recovery.

In a post on X, Strive’s CFO, Ben Pham, stated:

“Strive intends to use all available mechanisms, including novel financial strategies not used by other Bitcoin treasury companies, to maximize its exposure to the asset.”

The company also plans to buy cash at a discount by merging with publicly traded companies holding more cash than their stock value, using the excess funds to purchase additional Bitcoin.

Mt. Gox, the exchange that collapsed in 2014, is currently in the process of repaying creditors, with a deadline set for October 31, 2025.

In its SEC filing, Strive declared:

“This strategy is intended to allow Strive the opportunity to purchase Bitcoin exposure at a discount to market price, enhancing Bitcoin per share and supporting its goal of outperforming Bitcoin over the long run.”

At the beginning of May, Strive announced its merger plan with Asset Entities, a deal that would create the first publicly listed asset management firm focused on Bitcoin. The resulting company aims to join the growing number of firms adopting a Bitcoin treasury strategy.

The corporate treasury trend

Strive’s initiative to accumulate bitcoin mirrors that of other companies like Strategy and Japan’s Metaplanet. On May 19, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, announced the purchase of an additional 7,390 BTC for $764.9 million, raising its total holdings to 576,230 BTC. On the same day, Metaplanet revealed it had acquired another 1,004 BTC, increasing its total to 7,800 BTC.

The post Bitcoin in Strive’s sights: 75,000 BTC from Mt. Gox among its targets appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

According to the ECB Executive Board member, the launch of the digital euro depends on the timing of the EU regulation.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is making progress in preparing for the digital euro. According to Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board member and coordinator of the project, the technical phase “is proceeding quickly and on schedule,” but moving to operational implementation still requires political approval of the regulation at the European level.

Speaking at the ‘Voices on the Future’ event organized by Ansa and Asvis, Cipollone outlined a possible timeline:

“If the regulation is approved at the start of 2026 — in the best-case scenario for the European legislative process — we could see the first transactions with the digital euro by mid-2028.”

Cipollone also highlighted Europe’s current dependence on electronic payment systems managed by non-European companies:

“Today in Europe, whenever we don’t use cash, any transaction online or at the supermarket has to go through credit cards, with their fees. The payment system relies on companies that aren’t based in Europe. You can see why it would make sense to have a system fully under our control.”

For the ECB board member, the digital euro would act as a direct alternative to cash in the digital world, working like “a banknote you can spend anywhere in Europe for any purpose.”

The digital euro project is part of the ECB’s broader strategy to strengthen the independence of Europe’s financial system. According to Cipollone and the Central Bank, Europe’s digital currency would be a key step toward greater autonomy in electronic payments, reducing reliance on infrastructure and services outside the European Union.

The post ECB: digital euro by mid-2028, says Cipollone appeared first on Atlas21.

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A new study reveals: 4 out of 5 Americans would like the US to convert some of its gold into Bitcoin.

A recent survey conducted by the Nakamoto Project revealed that a majority of Americans support converting a portion of the United States’ gold reserves into Bitcoin. The survey, carried out online by Qualtrics between February and March 2025, involved 3,345 participants with demographic characteristics representative of US census standards. Most respondents expressed a desire to convert between 1% and 30% of the gold reserves into BTC.

Troy Cross, co-founder of the Nakamoto Project, stated:

“When given a slider and asked to advise the US government on the right proportion of Bitcoin and gold, subjects were very reluctant to put that slider on 0% Bitcoin and 100% gold. Instead, they settled around 10% Bitcoin.”

One significant finding from the research is the correlation between age and openness to Bitcoin: younger respondents showed a greater inclination toward the cryptocurrency compared to older generations.

A potential US strategy

Bo Hines, a White House advisor, is promoting an initiative for the Treasury Department to acquire Bitcoin by selling off a portion of its gold. Under the proposed plan, the government could acquire up to 1 million BTC over the next five years.

To finance these purchases, the government plans to sell Federal Reserve gold certificates. The proposal aligns with Senator Cynthia Lummis’ 2025 Bitcoin Act, which aims to declare Bitcoin a critical national strategic asset.

Currently, the United States holds 8,133 metric tons of gold, valued at over $830 billion, and about 200,000 BTC, valued at $21 billion.

The post The majority in the US wants to convert part of the gold reserves into Bitcoin appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

The exchange reveals the extent of the breach that occurred last December as federal authorities investigate the recent data leak.

Coinbase has disclosed that the personal data of 69,461 users was compromised during the breach in December 2024, according to documentation filed with the Maine Attorney General’s Office.

The disclosure comes after Coinbase announced last week that a group of hackers had demanded a $20 million ransom, threatening to publish the stolen data on the dark web. The attackers allegedly bribed overseas customer service agents to extract information from the company’s systems.

Coinbase had previously stated that the breach affected less than 1% of its user base, compromising KYC (Know Your Customer) data such as names, addresses, and email addresses. In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the company clarified that passwords, private keys, and user funds were not affected.

Following the reports, the SEC has reportedly opened an official investigation to verify whether Coinbase may have inflated user metrics ahead of its 2021 IPO. Separately, the Department of Justice is investigating the breach at Coinbase’s request, according to CEO Brian Armstrong.

Meanwhile, Coinbase has faced criticism for its delayed response to the data breach. Michael Arrington, founder of TechCrunch, stated that the stolen data could cause irreparable harm. In a post on X, Arrington wrote:

“The human cost, denominated in misery, is much larger than the $400m or so they think it will actually cost the company to reimburse people. The consequences to companies who do not adequately protect their customer information should include, without limitation, prison time for executives.”

Coinbase estimates the incident could cost between $180 million and $400 million in remediation expenses and customer reimbursements.

Arrington also condemned KYC laws as ineffective and dangerous, calling on both regulators and companies to better protect user data:

“Combining these KYC laws with corporate profit maximization and lax laws on penalties for hacks like these means these issues will continue to happen. Both governments and corporations need to step up to stop this. As I said, the cost can only be measured in human suffering.”

The post Coinbase: 69,461 users affected by December 2024 data breach appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Bitcoin adoption will come through businesses: neither governments nor banks will lead the revolution.

In recent years, it’s undeniable that Bitcoin has ceased to be just a radical idea born from the minds of cypherpunks. It is now recognized across the board as a global asset, discussed in the upper echelons of finance, accepted even on Wall Street, purchased by banking groups and included as a “strategic reserve” by some nations.

However, the general perception that hovers today regarding Bitcoin’s diffusion is still that of minimal adoption, almost insignificant. Bitcoin exists, certainly, but in fact it is not being used. It is rarely possible to pay in satoshis in commercial establishments. Demand is still extremely low.

Furthermore, the debate on Bitcoin is still practically absent: excluding some local events, some niche media outlets or some timid discussion, today Bitcoin is in fact excluded from general interest. The level of understanding and knowledge of the phenomenon is certainly still very low.

Yet, Bitcoin represents an unprecedented technological improvement, capable of solving many problems inherent in the fiat system in which we live. What could facilitate its diffusion?

Bitcoin becomes familiar when businesses adopt it

When talking about Bitcoin adoption, many look to States. They imagine governments that legislate or accumulate Bitcoin as a “strategic reserve,” or banks perceived as forward-thinking that would lead technological change, opening up to innovation. But the reality is different: bureaucracy, political constraints, and fear of losing control inherently prevent States and central banks from being pioneers.

What really drives Bitcoin adoption are not States, but businesses. It is the forward-looking entrepreneurs, innovative startups and – eventually – even large multinational companies that decide to integrate Bitcoin into their operating systems that drive adoption. Indeed, the business world has always played a key role in the adoption of new technologies. This was the case, for example, with the internet, e-commerce, mobile telephony, and the cloud. It will also be the case with Bitcoin.

Unlike a State, when a company adopts Bitcoin, it does so for concrete reasons: efficiency, savings, protection, access to new markets, independence from traditional banking circuits, or bureaucratic streamlining. It is a rational choice, not an ideological one, dictated by the intent to improve one’s competitiveness against the competition to survive in the market.

What is currently missing to facilitate adoption is, in all likelihood, a significant number of businesses that have decided to integrate Bitcoin into their company systems.

Bitcoin becomes “normal” when it is integrated into the operational flow of businesses. Holding and framing bitcoin on the balance sheet, paying an invoice, paying salaries to employees in satoshis, making value transfers globally thanks to the blockchain, allowing customers to pay via Lightning Network… when all this becomes possible with the same simplicity with which we use the euro or the dollar, Bitcoin stops being alternative and becomes the standard.

Businesses are not just users. They are adoption multipliers. When a company chooses Bitcoin, it is automatically proposing it to customers, employees, suppliers, and institutional stakeholders. Each business adoption equals tens, hundreds, or thousands of new eyes on Bitcoin.

People, after all, trust what they see every day: if your trusted restaurant accepts bitcoin, or if your favorite e-commerce platform uses it to receive international payments, or if your colleague receives it as a salary, then Bitcoin no longer appears to be a mysterious object. It finally begins to be perceived as a real, useful, and functioning tool.

The integration of a technology in companies helps make it understandable, accessible, and legitimate in the eyes of the public. This is how distrust is overcome: by making Bitcoin visible in daily life.

Bitcoin and businesses today

A River Financial report estimates that as of May 2025, only 5% of bitcoin is currently owned by private businesses. A still very small number.

According to research by River, in May 2025 businesses hold just over a million btc (about 5% of available monetary units). More than two-thirds of bitcoin (68.2%) are in the hands of private individuals.

To promote Bitcoin adoption, it is necessary today to support businesses in integrating this standard, leveraging all its enormous opportunities. Among others, this technology allows for fast, economical, and global payments. It eliminates intermediaries, increases transparency and security in value transfers. It removes bureaucratic frictions and allows opening up to a new global market.

Every sector can benefit from Bitcoin: e-commerce, tourism, industry, restaurants, professional services, or any other business. Bitcoin revolutionizes the concept of money, and money is a transversal working tool.

We are still at the beginning, but several signals are encouraging. According to a study by Bitwise and reported by Atlas21, in the first quarter of 2025, a growing number of US companies (+16.11% compared to the previous one) are including Bitcoin in their balance sheets, not just as a financial bet, but as a long-term strategy to protect their assets and access a decentralized monetary system to transfer value worldwide without resorting to financial intermediaries.

Who is driving the change?

Echoing the words of Roy Sheinfeld, CEO of Breez, the true potential of Bitcoin will be unleashed first and foremost from the work of developers, the true architects in designing and refining tools that are increasingly simple and intuitive to use for anyone, regardless of level of expertise. It is the developers – Roy rightly argued – who will enable us to “conquer the world.”

But probably that’s not enough: the next step is to make Bitcoin a globally accepted technological standard, changing its perception towards the general public. And this is where businesses come into play.

Guided by the market, technological innovation, and the desire to meet user demands, entrepreneurs today represent the fulcrum to accelerate the monetary transition from the current fiat system towards the Bitcoin standard. It is entrepreneurs who transform innovations from opportunities for a few to a reality shared by many.

The adoption of Bitcoin will therefore not arise from a sudden event, nor from the exclusive fruit of enthusiasts’ enthusiasm or from arbitrary political choices decreed by States or regulators.

The future of Bitcoin is built in the places where value is created every day: in companies, in their systems, and in their strategic decisions.

“If we conquer developers, we conquer the world. If we conquer businesses, we conquer adoption.”

The post The key to Bitcoin adoption is businesses appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Governor Abbott will have to decide whether to sign the bill establishing a bitcoin reserve for the state.

Texas could become the third U.S. state to set up a strategic bitcoin reserve, following the approval of Senate Bill 21 by the state House, with 101 votes in favor and 42 against.

Lee Bratcher, founder and president of the Texas Blockchain Council, expressed confidence that Governor Greg Abbott will sign the legislative measure. In an interview with The Block, Bratcher said:

“I’ve talked to the governor about this personally, and I think he wants to see Texas lead in this way.”

The bill is expected to reach the governor’s desk within a week or two, according to Bratcher’s projections. If signed, Texas would follow in the footsteps of New Hampshire and Arizona in creating a state-held bitcoin reserve.

Despite Texas ranking as the world’s eighth-largest economy — ahead of many nations — the initial approach to the reserve will be cautious. Bratcher estimates the starting investment will be in the “tens of millions of dollars,” an amount he describes as “modest” for an economy the size of Texas. The responsibility for operational decisions would fall to the state comptroller, who acts as an executive accountant in charge of managing and investing public funds.

“My sense is that it will be in the tens of millions of dollars, which, while it sounds significant, is a very modest amount, for a state the size of Texas.” explained the president of the Texas Blockchain Council.

The road to approval

According to Bratcher, the idea of creating a state bitcoin reserve dates back to 2022 and represents the culmination of years of work by the Texas Blockchain Council. The organization has worked closely with lawmakers who shared the vision of seeing the state accumulate the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Additionally, Texas has long been home to numerous bitcoin mining companies.

The post Texas one step away from a bitcoin reserve: only the governor’s signature is missing appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Bitcoin surpasses gold in the United States: 50 million holders and a dominant role in the global market.

According to a new report by River, for the first time in history, the number of Americans owning bitcoin has surpassed that of gold holders. The analysis reveals that approximately 50 million U.S. citizens currently own the cryptocurrency, while gold owners number 37 million. In fact, 14.3% of Americans own bitcoin, the highest percentage of holders worldwide.

Source: River

The report highlights that 40% of all Bitcoin-focused companies are based in the United States, consolidating America’s dominant position in the sector. Additionally, 40.5% of Bitcoin holders are men aged 31 to 35, followed by 35.9% of men aged 41 to 45. In contrast, only 13.4% of holders are women.

Source: River

Notably, U.S. companies hold 94.8% of all bitcoins owned by publicly traded companies worldwide. According to the report, recent regulatory changes in the U.S. have made the asset more accessible through financial products such as spot ETFs.

The document also shows that American investors increasingly view the cryptocurrency as protection against fiscal instability and inflation, appreciating its limited supply and decentralized governance model.

For River, Bitcoin offers significant practical advantages over gold in the modern digital era. Its ease of custody, cross-border transfer, and liquidity make the cryptocurrency an attractive option for both individual and institutional investors, the report suggests.

The post USA: 50 million Americans own bitcoin appeared first on Atlas21.

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Michigan lawmakers are unveiling a comprehensive strategy to regulate Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

On May 21, Republican Representative Bill Schuette introduced House Bill 4510, a proposal to amend the Michigan Public Employee Retirement System Investment Act. The legislation would allow the state treasurer, currently Rachael Eubanks, to diversify the state’s investments by including cryptocurrencies with an average market capitalization of over $250 million in the past calendar year.

Under current criteria, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) are the only cryptocurrencies that meet these selection standards. The proposal specifies that any investment in digital assets must be made through exchange-traded products (spot ETFs) issued by registered investment companies.

Anti-CBDC legislation

Republican Representative Bryan Posthumus is leading the bipartisan initiative behind the second bill, HB 4511, which establishes protections for cryptocurrency holders. The proposal prohibits Michigan from implementing crypto bans or imposing licensing requirements on digital asset holders.

Another key aspect of the legislation is a ban on state officials from supporting or promoting a potential federal central bank digital currency (CBDC). The definition includes the issuance of memorandums or official statements endorsing CBDC proposals related to testing, adoption, or implementation.

Mining and redevelopment of abandoned sites

The third bill, HB 4512, is a proposal led by Democratic Representative Mike McFall for a bipartisan group. This initiative would establish a Bitcoin mining program allowing operators to use abandoned oil and natural gas sites.

The program calls for the appointment of a supervisor tasked with assessing the site’s remaining productive potential, identifying the last operator, and determining the length of abandonment. Prospective participants would need to submit detailed legal documentation of their organizational structure, demonstrate operational expertise in mining, and provide profitability breakeven estimates for their ventures.

The fourth and final bill, HB 4513, also introduced by the bipartisan group led by McFall, focuses on the fiscal aspect of the HB 4512 initiative. The proposal would amend Michigan’s income tax laws to include proceeds generated from the proposed Bitcoin mining program.

The post Michigan: four bills on pension funds, CBDCs, and mining appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

A fake Uber driver steals $73,000 in XRP and $50,000 in Bitcoin after drugging an American tourist.

A U.S. citizen vacationing in the United Kingdom fell victim to a scam that cost him $123,000 in cryptocurrencies stored on his smartphone. The man was drugged by an individual posing as an Uber driver.

According to My London, Jacob Irwin-Cline had spent the evening at a London nightclub, consuming several alcoholic drinks before requesting an Uber ride home. The victim admitted he hadn’t carefully verified the booking details on his device, mistakenly getting into a private taxi driven by someone who, at first glance, resembled the expected Uber driver but was using a completely different vehicle.

Once inside the car, the American tourist reported that the driver offered him a cigarette, allegedly laced with scopolamine — a rare and powerful sedative. Irwin-Cline described how the smoke made him extremely docile and fatigued, causing him to lose consciousness for around half an hour.

Upon waking, the driver ordered the victim to get out of the vehicle. As Irwin-Cline stepped out, the man suddenly accelerated, running him over and fleeing with his mobile phone, which contained the private keys and access to his cryptocurrencies. Screenshots provided to MyLondon show that $73,000 worth of XRP and $50,000 in bitcoin had been transferred to various wallets.

This incident adds to a growing trend of kidnappings, extortions, armed robberies, and ransom attempts targeting crypto executives, investors, and their families.

Just a few weeks ago, the daughter and grandson of Pierre Noizat, CEO of crypto exchange Paymium, were targeted in a kidnapping attempt in Paris. The incident took place in broad daylight when attackers tried to force the family into a parked vehicle. However, Noizat’s daughter managed to fight off the assailants.

The post American tourist drugged and robbed: $123,000 in crypto stolen in London appeared first on Atlas21.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Banking giants JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are in talks to develop a unified stablecoin solution.

According to the Wall Street Journal on May 22, some of the largest financial institutions in the United States are exploring the possibility of joining forces to launch a stablecoin.

Subsidiaries of JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have initiated preliminary discussions for a joint stablecoin issuance, according to sources close to the matter cited by the WSJ. Also at the negotiating table are Early Warning Services, the parent company of the digital payments network Zelle, and the payment network Clearing House.

The talks are reportedly still in the early stages, and any final decision could change depending on regulatory developments and market demand for stablecoins.

Stablecoin regulation

On May 20, the US Senate voted 66 to 32 to advance discussion of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act), a specific law to regulate stablecoins. The bill outlines a regulatory framework for stablecoin collateralization and mandates compliance with anti-money laundering rules.

David Sacks, White House crypto advisor, expressed optimism about the bill’s bipartisan approval. However, senior Democratic Party officials intend to amend the bill to include a clause preventing former President Donald Trump and other US officials from profiting from stablecoins.

Demand for stablecoins has increased, with total market capitalization rising to $245 billion from $205 billion at the beginning of the year, a 20% increase.

The post Major US banks consider launching a joint stablecoin appeared first on Atlas21.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?
2. Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?
3. Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

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Bitcoin je peer to peer elektronski keš, novi oblik digitalnog novca koji se može prenositi između ljudi ili računara, bez potrebe za učestvovanjem pouzdanog posrednika (kao što je banka) i čije izdavanje nije pod kontrolom nijedne stranke.

Zamislite papirni dolar ili metalni novčić. Kad taj novac date drugoj osobi, ona ne mora da zna ko ste vi.

On samo treba da veruju da novac koji dobiju od vas nije falsifikat. Obično, proveravanje falsifikata „fizičkog“ novca, ljudi rade koristeći samo oči i prste ili koristeći specijalnu opremu za testiranje ukoliko se radi o značajnijoj sumi novca.

Većina plaćanja u našem digitalnom društvu vrši se putem Interneta korišćenjem neke posredničke usluge: kompanije za izdavanje kreditnih kartica poput Visa, snabdevača digitalnih plaćanja kao što je PayPal ili Apple Pay ili mrežne platforme poput WeChat u Kini.

Kretanje ka digitalnom plaćanju sa sobom donosi oslanjanje na nekog centralnog aktera koji mora odobriti i verifikovati svaku uplatu.

Priroda novca se promenila od fizičkog predmeta koji možete da nosite, prenesete i autentifikujete do digitalnih bitova koje mora da čuva i verifikuje treća strana koja kontroliše njihov prenos.

Odricanjem od gotovine u korist „udobnih“ digitalnih plaćanja, mi takođe stvaramo sistem u kome dajemo ogromna ovlašćenja onima koji bi poželeli da nas tlače.

Platforme za digitalno plaćanje postale su osnova distopijskih autoritarnih metoda kontrole, poput onih koje kineska vlada koristi za nadgledanje disidenata i sprečava građane, čije ponašanje im se ne svidja, da kupuju robu i plaćaju usluge.

Bitcoin nudi alternativu centralno kontrolisanom digitalnom novcu sa sistemom koji nam vraća prirodu korišćenja keša – čovek čoveku, ali u digitalnom obliku.

Bitcoin je digitalno sredstvo koje se izdaje i prenosi preko mreže međusobno povezanih računara, od koji svaki od njih samostalno potvrđuje da svi ostali igraju po pravilima.

Bitcoin Mreža

Odakle Potiče Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je izumela osoba ili grupa poznata pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto, oko 2008. godine.

Niko ne zna Satoshijev identitet, a koliko znamo, oni su nestali i o njima se godinama ništa nije čulo.

11.februara 2009. godine, Satoshi je pisao o ranoj verziji Bitcoin-a na mrežnom forumu za cypher­punkere, ljude koji rade na tehnologiji kriptografije i koji su zabrinuti za privatnost i slobodu pojedinca.

Iako ovo nije prvo zvanično objavljivanje Bitcoin-a, sadrži dobar rezime Satoshi-jevih motiva.

Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda pod nazivom Bitcoin. Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki, jer se sve zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju. […]

Osnovni problem konvencionalne valute je potpuno poverenje koje je potrebno za njeno funkcionisanje. Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja. Bankama se mora verovati da drže naš novac i prenose ga elektronskim putem, ali one ga daju u talasima kreditnih balona sa delićem rezerve. Moramo im verovati sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune. Njihovi ogromni režijski troškovi onemogućavaju mikro plaćanja.

Generaciju ranije, višekorisnički time-sharing računarski sistemi imali su sličan problem. Pre pojave jake enkripcije, korisnici su morali da imaju pouzdanje u zaštitu lozinkom kako bi zaštitili svoje fajlove […]

Tada je jaka enkripcija postala dostupna širokim masama i više nije bilo potrebno poverenje. Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac. Uz e-valutu zasnovanu na kriptografskom dokazu, bez potrebe da verujete posredniku treće strane, novac može biti siguran i transakcije mogu biti izvršene bez napora. […]

Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje. Ukratko, mreža radi poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić. Potrebna je prednost prirode informacije koju je lako širiti, ali je teško ugušiti. Za detalje o tome kako to funkcioniše, pogledajte članak o dizajnu na bitcoin.org

Satoshi Nakamoto

Koje Probleme Rešava Bitcoin?

Razdvojimo neke od Satoshi-jevih postova kako bismo uvideli razloge njegove motivacije.

„Razvio sam novi P2P sistem e-keša otvorenog koda.“

P2P je skraćenica za peer to peer i ukazuje na sistem u kojem jedna osoba može da komunicira sa drugom bez ikoga u sredini, kao medjusobno jednaki.

Možete se setiti P2P tehnologija za razmenu datoteka poput Napster-a, Kazaa-e i BitTorrrent-a, koje su prve omogućile ljudima da dele muziku i filmove bez posrednika.

Satoshi je dizajnirao Bitcoin kako bi omogućio ljudima da razmenjuju e-keš, elektronski keš, bez prolaska preko posrednika na približno isti način.

Softver je otvorenog koda, što znači da svako može videti kako funkcioniše i doprineti tome.

Ne treba da verujemo ni u šta što je Satoshi napisao u svom postu o tome kako softver radi.

Možemo pogledati kod i sami proveriti kako to funkcioniše. Štaviše, možemo promeniti funkcionalnost sistema promenom koda.

„Potpuno je decentralizovan, bez centralnog servera ili pouzdanih stranki …“

Satoshi napominje da je sistem decentralizovan kako bi se razlikovao od sistema koji imaju centralnu kontrolu.

Prethodne pokušaje stvaranja digitalne gotovine poput DigiCash-a od strane Davida Chaum-a podržavao je centralni server, računar ili skup računara koji je bio odgovoran za izdavanje i verifikaciju plaćanja pod kontrolom jedne korporacije.

Takve, centralno kontrolisane privatne šeme novca, bile su osuđene na propast; ljudi se ne mogu osloniti na novac koji može nestati kada kompanija prestane sa poslovanjem, bude hakovana, pretrpi pad servera ili je zatvori vlada.

Bitcoin održava mreža pojedinaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Da bi se Bitcoin isključio, bilo bi potrebno isključiti desetine do stotine hiljada računara širom sveta u isto vreme, zauvek, od kojih su mnogi na nepoznatim lokacijama.

Bila bi to beznadežna igra, jer bi svaki napad ove prirode jednostavno podstakao stvaranje novih Bitcoin čvorova ili računara na mreži.

„… sve se zasniva na kripto dokazima umesto na poverenju“

Internet, a u stvari i većina savremenih računarskih sistema, izgrađeni su na kriptografiji, metodi prikrivanja informacija, tako da je može dekodirati samo primalac informacije.

Kako se Bitcoin oslobađa potrebe za poverenjem? Umesto da verujemo nekome ko kaže „Ja sam Alisa“ ili „Imam 10 $ na računu“, možemo koristiti kriptografsku matematiku da bismo izneli iste činjenice na način koji je vrlo lako verifikovati od strane primaoca dokaza ali ga je nemoguće falsifikovati.

Bitcoin u svom dizajnu koristi kriptografsku matematiku kako bi učesnicima omogućio da provere ponašanje svih ostalih učesnika, bez poverenja u bilo koju centralnu stranku.

„Moramo im verovati [bankama] sa našom privatnošću, verovati im da neće dozvoliti da kradljivci identiteta pokradu naše račune“

Za razliku od korišćenja vašeg bankovnog računa, sistema digitalnog plaćanja ili kreditne kartice, Bitcoin omogućava dvema stranama da obavljaju transakcije bez davanje bilo kakvih ličnih podataka.

Centralizovana skladišta potrošačkih podataka koji se čuvaju u bankama, kompanijama sa kreditnim karticama, procesorima plaćanja i vladama, predstavljaju pravu poslasticu za hakere.

Kao dokaz Satoshi-jeve poente služi primer iz 2017. godine kada je Equifax masovono kompromitovan, kada su hakeri ukrali identifikacione i finansijske podatke za više od 140 miliona ljudi.

Bitcoin odvaja finansijske transakcije od stvarnih identiteta.

Na kraju krajeva, kada nekome damo fizički novac, on nema potrebu da zna ko smo, niti treba da brinemo da će nakon naše razmene moći da iskoristi neke informacije koje smo mu dali da ukrade još našeg novca.

Zašto ne bismo očekivali isto, ili čak i bolje, od digitalnog novca?

„Centralnoj banci se mora verovati da neće devalvirati valutu, ali istorija tradicionalnih valuta je puna primera kršenja tog poverenja.“

Pojam tradicionalna valuta, odnosi se na valutu izdatu od strane vlade i centralne banke, koju vlada proglašava zakonskim sredstvom plaćanja.

Istorijski, novac je nastao od stvari koje je bilo teško proizvesti, koje su bile lake za proveravanje i transport, poput školjki, staklenih perli, srebra i zlata.

Kad god bi se nešto koristilo kao novac, postojalo je iskušenje da se stvori više toga.

Ako bi neko pronašao vrhunsku tehnologiju za brzo stvaranje velike količine nečega, ta stvar bi izgubila vrednost.

Evropski naseljenici uspeli su da liše afrički kontinent bogatstva trgujući staklenim perlicama koje su se lako proizvodile za ljudske robove.

Isto se dogodilo sa američkim indijancima, kada su kolonisti otkrili način brze proizvodnje vampum školjki, koje su starosedeoci smatrali retkim.

Vremenom, širom sveta ljudi su shvatili da je samo zlato dovoljno retko da deluje kao novac, bez straha da bi neko drugi mogao da ga stvori u velikim količinama.

Polako smo prešli sa svetske ekonomije koja je koristila zlato kao novac na onu gde su banke izdavale papirne sertifikate kao dokaz posedovanja tog zlata.

Nixon je okončao međunarodnu konvertibilnost američkog dolara u zlato 1971. godine, privremenim rešenjem, koje je ubrzo postalo trajno.

Kraj zlatnog standarda omogućio je vladama i centralnim bankama da imaju punu dozvolu da povećavaju novčanu masu po svojoj volji, razredjujući vrednost svake novčanice u opticaju, poznatije kao umanjenje vrednosti.

Iako je izdata od strane vlade, suštinska tradicionalna valuta je novac koji svi znamo i svakodnevno koristimo, ipak je relativno novo iskustvo u opsegu svetske istorije.

Moramo verovati našim vladama da ne zloupotrebljavaju njegovo štamparije, i ne treba nam puno muke da nadjemo primere kršenja tog poverenja.

U autokratskim i centralno planiranim režimima gde vlada ima prst direktno na mašini za novac, kao što je Venecuela, valuta je postala gotovo bezvredna.

Venecuelanski Bolivar prešao je sa 2 bolivara za 1 američki dolar, koliko je vredeo 2009. godine, na 250.000 bolivara za 1 američki dolar 2019. godine.

Pogledajte koliko novčanica je bilo potrebno za kupovinu piletine u Venecueli posle hiperinflacije.

Satoshi je želeo da ponudi alternativu tradicionalnoj valuti čija se ponuda uvek nepredvidivo širi.

Da bi sprečilo umanjenje vrednosti, Satoshi je dizajnirao novčani sistem gde je zaliha bila fiksna i izdavana po predvidljivoj i nepromenjivoj stopi.

Postojaće samo 21 milion Bitcoin-a.

Međutim, svaki Bitcoin se može podeliti na 100 miliona jedinica koje se sada nazivaju satoshis (sats-ovi), što će činiti ukupno 2,1 kvadriliona satoshi-a u opticaju oko 2140. godine.

Pre Bitcoin-a nije bilo moguće sprečiti beskrajnu reprodukciju digitalnih sredstava.

Kopirati digitalnu knjigu, audio datoteku ili video zapis i poslati ga prijatelju, je jeftino i lako.

Jedini izuzeci od toga su digitalna sredstva koja kontrolišu posrednici.

Na primer, kada iznajmite film sa iTunes-a, možete ga gledati na vašem uređaju samo zato što iTunes kontroliše distribuciju tog filma i može ga zaustaviti nakon perioda njegovog iznajmljivanja.

Slično tome, vaša banka kontroliše vaš digitalni novac. Zadatak banke je da vodi evidenciju koliko novca imate.

Ako ga prenesete nekom drugom, oni će odobriti ili odbiti takav prenos.

Bitcoin je prvi digitalni sistem koji sprovodi oskudicu bez posrednika i prvo je sredstvo poznato čovečanstvu čija je nepromenljiva ponuda i raspored izdavanja poznat unapred.

Ni plemeniti metali poput zlata nemaju ovo svojstvo, jer uvek možemo iskopati sve više i više zlata ukoliko je to isplativo.

Zamislite da otkrijemo asteroid koji sadrži deset puta više zlata nego što ga imamo na zemlji.

Šta bi se dogodilo sa cenom zlata uzimajući u obzir tako obilnu ponudu? Bitcoin je imun na takva otkrića i manipulisanje nabavkom.

Jednostavno je nemoguće proizvesti više od toga (21 miliona).

„Podaci bi se mogli osigurati na način koji je fizički bio nemoguć za pristup drugima, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve. […] Vreme je da imamo istu stvar za novac “

Naše trenutne metode obezbeđivanja novca, poput stavljanja u banku, oslanjaju se na poverenje nekome drugom da će obaviti taj posao.

Poverenje u takvog posrednika ne zahteva samo sigurnost da on neće učiniti nešto zlonamerno ili glupo, već i da vlada neće zapleniti ili zamrznuti vaša sredstva vršeći pritisak na ovog posrednika.

Međutim, videli smo bezbroj puta da vlade mogu, i zaista uskraćuju pristup novcu kada se osećaju ugroženo.

Nekom ko živi u Sjedinjenim Državama ili nekoj drugoj visoko regulisanoj ekonomiji možda zvuči glupo da razmišlja da se probudi sa oduzetim novcem, ali to se događa stalno.

PayPal mi je zamrzao sredstva jednostavno zato par meseci nisam koristio svoj račun.

Trebalo mi je više od nedelju dana da vratim pristup „svom“ novcu.

Srećan sam što živim u Europi, gde bih se bar mogao nadati da ću potražiti neko pravno rešenje ako mi PayPal zamrzne sredstva i gde imam osnovno poverenje da moja vlada i banka neće ukrasti moj novac.

Mnogo gore stvari su se dogodile, i trenutno se dešavaju, u zemljama sa manje slobode.

Banke su se zatvorile tokom kolapsa valuta u Grčkoj.

Banke na Kipru su koristile kaucije da konfiskuju sredstva od svojih klijenata.

Indijska vlada je proglasila određene novčanice bezvrednim.

Bivši SSSR, u kojem sam odrastao, imao je ekonomiju pod kontrolom vlade što je dovelo do ogromnih nestašica robe.

Bilo je nezakonito posedovati strane valute kao što je američki dolar.

Kada smo poželeli da odemo, mojoj porodici je bilo dozvoljeno da zameni samo ograničenu količinu novca po osobi za američke dolare po zvaničnom kursu koji je bio u velikoj meri različit od pravog kursa slobodnog tržišta.

U stvari, vlada nam je oduzela ono malo bogatstva koje smo imali koristeći gvozdeni stisak na ekonomiji i kretanju kapitala.

Autokratske zemlje imaju tendenciju da sprovode strogu ekonomsku kontrolu, sprečavajući ljude da na slobodnom tržištu povuku svoj novac iz banaka, iznesu ga iz zemlje ili da ga razmene u ne još uvek bezvredne valute poput američkog dolara.

To omogućava vladinoj slobodnoj vladavini da primeni sulude ekonomske eksperimente poput socijalističkog sistema SSSR-a.

Bitcoin se ne oslanja na poverenje u treću stranu da bi osigurao vaš novac.

Umesto toga, Bitcoin onemogućava drugima pristup vašim novčićima bez jedinstvenog ključa koji imate samo vi, bez obzira iz kog razloga, bez obzira koliko je dobar izgovor, bez obzira na sve.

Držeći Bitcoin, držite ključeve sopstvene finansijske slobode. Bitcoin razdvaja novac i državu

„Rešenje Bitcoin-a je korišćenje peer-to-peer mreže za proveru dvostruke potrošnje […] poput distribuiranog servera vremenskih žigova, obeležavajući prvu transakciju koja je potrošila novčić“

Mreža se odnosi na ideju da je gomila računara povezana i da mogu međusobno slati poruke.

Reč distribuirano znači da ne postoji centralna stranka koja kontroliše, već da svi učesnici koordiniraju medjusobno kako bi mreža bila uspešna.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole, bitno je znati da niko ne vara. Ideja dvostruke potrošnje odnosi se na mogućnost trošenja istog novca dva puta.

Fizički novac odlazi iz vaše ruke kad ga potrošite. Međutim, digitalne transakcije se mogu kopirati baš kao muzika ili filmovi.

Kada novac šaljete preko banke, oni se pobrinu da isti novac ne možete da prebacujete dva puta.

U sistemu bez centralne kontrole potreban nam je način da sprečimo ovu vrstu dvostruke potrošnje, koja je u suštini ista kao i falsifikovanje novca.

Satoshi opisuje da učesnici u Bitcoin mreži rade zajedno kako bi vremenski označili (doveli u red) transakcije kako bismo znali šta je bilo prvo.

Zbog toga možemo odbiti sve buduće pokušaje trošenja istog novca.

Satoshi se uhvatio u koštac sa nekoliko zanimljivih tehničkih problema kako bi rešio probleme privatnosti, uništavanja vrednosti i centralne kontrole u ​​trenutnim monetarnim sistemima.

Na kraju je stvorio peer to peer mrežu kojoj se svako mogao pridružiti bez otkrivanja svog identiteta ili potrebe da veruje bilo kom drugom učesniku.

Kako se Bitcoin razvijao u poslednjoj deceniji?

Doprinosi izvornom kodu Bitcoina

Kada je Bitcoin pokrenut, samo nekolicina ljudi ga je koristila i pokrenula Bitcoin softver na svojim računarima za napajanje Bitcoin mreže.

Većina ljudi u to vreme mislila je da je to šala ili da će se otkriti ozbiljni nedostaci u dizajnu sistema koji će ga učiniti neizvodljivim.

Vremenom se mreži pridružilo sve više ljudi koji su pomoću svojih računara dodali sigurnost mreži.

Ljudi su počeli da menjaju Bitcoin-e za robu i usluge, dajući mu stvarnu vrednost. Pojavile su se menjačnice valuta koje su menjale Bitcoin-e za gotovo sve tradicionalne valute na svetu.

Deset godina nakon izuma, Bitcoin koriste milioni ljudi sa desetinama do stotinama hiljada čvorova koji pokreću besplatni Bitcoin softver, koji se razvija od strane stotina dobrovoljaca i kompanija širom sveta.

Bitcoin mreža je porasla kako bi obezbedila vrednost veću od stotine biliona dolara.

Računari koji učestvuju u zaštiti Bitcoin mreže poznati su kao rudari/majneri.

Oni rade u industrijskim operacijama širom sveta, ulažući milione dolara u specijalni rudarski hardver koji radi samo jedno: pobrinuti se da je Bitcoin najsigurnija mreža na planeti.

Rudari troše električnu energiju kako bi transakcije Bitcoin-a učinile sigurnim od modifikacija. Budući da se rudari međusobno takmiče za oskudan broj Bitcoin-a proizvedenih dnevno, oni uvek moraju da pronalaze najjeftinije izvore energije na planeti da bi ostali profitabilni.

Rudari rade na različitim mestima, od hidroelektrana u dalekim krajevima Kine do vetroparkova u Teksasu, do kanadskih naftnih polja koja proizvode gas koji bi u suprotnom bio odzračen ili spaljen u atmosferi.

Iako je Bitcoin popularna tema i o njemu se često raspravlja u medijima, procenjujemo da je samo nekoliko miliona ljudi na svetu počelo da redovno štedi Bitcoin.

Za mnoge ljude, posebno za one koji nikada nisu živeli pod represivnim režimima, ovaj izum novog oblika digitalnog novca izvan kontrole vlade može biti veoma izazovan za razumevanje i prihvatanje.

Zato sam ja ovde. Želim da vam pomognem da razumete Bitcoin i budete gospodar svoje budućnosti!

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Šta je Bitcoin?
2. Šta Bitcoin može da učini za vas?
3. Zašto ljudi kupuju Bitcoin?
4. Da li je vaš novac siguran u dolarima, kućama, akcijama ili zlatu?
5. Šta je bolje za štednju od dolara, kuća i akcija?
6. Po čemu se Bitcoin razlikuje od ostalih valuta?
7. kako Bitcoin spašava svet?
8. Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?

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Bitcoin čini da štednja novca bude kul – i praktična – ponovo. Ovaj članak objašnjava kako i zašto.

Šta je Bitcoin?

Bitcoin se naziva digitalno zlato, mašina za istinu, blockchain, peer to peer mreža čvorova, energetski ponor i još mnogo toga. Bitcoin je, u stvari, sve ovo. Međutim, ova objašnjenja su često toliko tehnička i suvoparna, da bi većina ljudi radije gledala kako trava raste. Što je najvažnije, ova objašnjenja ne pokazuju kako Bitcoin ima bilo kakve koristi za vas.

iPod nije postao kulturološka senzacija jer ga je Apple nazvao „prenosnim digitalnim medijskim uređajem“. Postao je senzacija jer su ga zvali “1,000 pesama u vašem džepu.”

Ne zanima vas šta je Bitcoin. Vas zanima šta on može da učini za vas.

Baš kao i Internet, vaš auto, vaš telefon, kao i mnogi drugi uređaji i sistemi koje svakodnevno koristite, vi ne treba da znate šta je Bitcoin ili kako to funkcioniše da biste razumeli šta on može da učini za vas.

Šta Bitcoin može da učini za vas?

Bitcoin može da sačuva vaš teško zarađeni novac.

Bitcoin je stekao veliku pažnju u 2017. i 2018. godini zbog svoje spekulativne upotrebe. Mnogi ljudi su ga kupili nadajući se da će se obogatiti. Cena je naglo porasla, a zatim se srušila. Ovo nije bio prvi put da je Bitcoin uradio to. Međutim, niko nikada nije izgubio novac držeći bitcoin duže od 3,5 godine – ćak i ako je kupio na apsolutnim vrhovima.

Zašto Bitcoin konstantno raste? Ljudi počinju da shvataju koliko je Bitcoin moćan, kao način uštede novca u svetu u kojem je ’novac’ poput dolara, eura i drugih nacionalnih valuta dizajniran da gubi vrednost.

Ovo čini Bitcoin odličnom opcijom za štednju novca na nekoliko godina ili više. Bitcoin je bolji od štednje novca u dolarima, akcijama, nekretninama, pa čak i u zlatu.

Zato pokušajte da zaboravite na trenutak na razumevanje blockchaina, digitalne valute, kriptografije, seed fraza, novčanika, rudarstva i svih ostalih nerazumljivih termina. Za sada, razgovarajmo o tome zašto ljudi kupuju Bitcoin: razlog je prostiji nego što vi mislite.

Zašto ljudi kupuju Bitcoin?

Naravno, svako ima svoj razlog za kupovinu Bitcoin-a. Jedan od razloga, koji verovatno često čujete, je taj što mu vrednost raste. Ljudi žele da se obogate. Uskoče kao spekulanti, krenu u vožnju i najverovatnije ih prodaju ubrzo nakon kupovine.

Međutim, čak i kada cena krene naglo prema gore i strmoglavo padne nazad, mnogi ljudi ostanu i nakon tog pada. Otkud mi to znamo? Broj aktivnih novčanika dnevno, koji je otprilike sličan broju korisnika Bitcoin-a, nastavlja da raste. Takođe, nakon svakog balona u istoriji Bitcoin-a, cena se nikada ne vraća na svoju cenu pre balona. Uvek ostane malo višlja. Bitcoin se penje, a svaka masovna spekulativna serija dovodi sve više i više ljudi.

Broj aktivnih Bitcoin novčanika neprekidno raste

„Aktivna adresa“ znači da je neko tog dana poslao Bitcoin transakciju. Donji grafikon je na logaritamskoj skali.

Izvor: Glassnode

Cena Bitcoina se neprestano penje

Kroz istoriju Bitcoin-a možemo videti divlje kolebanje cena, ali nakon svakog balona, cena se ostaje višlja nego pre. Ovo je cena Bitcoin-a na logaritamskoj skali.

Izvor: Glassnode

To pokazuje da se ljudi zadržavaju: potražnja za Bitcoin-om se povećava. Da je svaki masovni rast cena bio samo balon koji su iscenirali prevaranti koji žele brzo da se obogate, cena bi se vratila na nivo pre balona. To se dogodilo sa lalama, ali ne i sa Bitcoin-om.

I zašto se onda cena Bitcoin-a stalno povećava? Sve veći broj ljudi čuva Bitcoin dugoročno – oni razumeju šta Bitcoin može učiniti za njihovu štednju.

Zašto ljudi štede svoj novac u Bitcoin-u umesto na štednim računima, kućama, deonicama ili zlatu? Hajde da pogledajmo sve te metode štednje, i zatim da ih uporedimo sa Bitcoin-om.

Da li je vaš novac siguran u dolarima, kućama, akcijama ili zlatu?

Tokom mnogo godina, to su bile pristojne opcije za štednju. Međutim, sistem koji podržava vrednost svega ovoga je u krizi.

Dolari, Euri, Dinari

Dolari i sve ostale „tradicionalne“ valute koje proizvode vlade, stvorene su da izgube vrednost kroz inflaciju. Banke i tradicionalni monetarni sistem uzrokuju inflaciju stalnim stvaranjem i distribucijom novog novca. Kada Američke Federalne Rezerve objave ciljanu stopu od 2% inflacije, to znači da žele da vaš novac svake godine izgubi 2% od svoje vrednosti. Čak i sa inflacijom od samo 2%, vaša štednja u dolarima izgubiće polovinu vrednosti tokom 40-godišnjeg radnog veka.

Izveštena inflacija se danas opasno povečava, uprkos rastućem „buretu sa barutom“ koji bi mogao da explodira i dovede do masivne hiperinflacije. Što je više valute u opticaju, to je više baruta u buretu.

Naše vlade su ekonomiju napunile valutama da bankarski sistem ne bi propao nakon finansijske krize koja se dogodila 2008. godine. Od tada je većina glavnih centralnih banaka postavila vrlo niske kamatne stope, što pojedincima i korporacijama omogućava dobijanje jeftinijih kredita. To znači da mnogi pojedinci i korporacije podižu ogromne kredite i koriste ih za kupovinu druge imovine poput deonica, umetničkih dela i nekretnina. Sve ovo pozajmljivanje znači da stvaramo tone novog novca i stavljamo ga u opticaj.

Računi za podsticaje (stimulus bills) COVID-19 za 2020. godinu unose trilione u sistem. Ovoliko stvaranje valuta na kraju dovodi do inflacije – velikog gubitka u vrednosti valute.

Količina američkog dolara u opticaju gotovo se udvostručila od marta 2020. godine. Izvor

Računi za podsticaje su bez presedana, toliko da je neko izmislio meme da opiše ovu situaciju.

Resurs koji vlade mogu da naprave u većem broju da bi platile svoje račune? Ne zvuči kao dobro mesto za štednju novca.

Kuće

Kuće su tokom prošlog veka bile pristojan način štednje novca. Međutim, pad cena nekretnina 2007. godine doveo je do toga da su mnogi vlasnici kuća izgubili svu ušteđevinu.

Danas su kuće gotovo nepristupačne za prosečnog čoveka. Jedan od načina da se ovo izmeri je koliko godišnjih zarada treba prosečnom čoveku da zaradi ekvivalent vrednosti prosečne kuće. Prema CityLab-u, publikaciji Bloomberg-a koja pokriva gradove, porodica može da priuštiti određenu kuću ako košta manje od 2,6 godišnjih prihoda domaćinstva te porodice.

Međutim, prema RZS (Republički zavod za statistiku) prosečan prihod porodičnog domaćinstva u Srbiji iznosi oko 570 EUR mesečno ili otprilike 7.000 EUR godišnje. Nažalost, samo najjeftinija područja van gradova imaju srednje cene kuća od oko 2,6 prosečnih godišnjih prihoda domaćinstva. U većim gradovima poput Beograda i Novog Sada srednja cena kuće je veća od 10 prosečnih godišnjih prihoda jednog domaćinstva.

Ako nekako možete sebi da priuštite kuću, ona bi mogla biti pristojna zaliha vrednosti. Dokle god ne doživimo još jedan krah i izvršitelji zaplene ovu imovinu mnogim vlasnicima kuća.

Akcije

Berza je u prošlosti takođe dobro poslovala. Međutim, sporo i stabilno povećanje tržišta događa se u dosadnom, predvidljivom svetu. Svakog dana vidimo sve manje toga. Nakon ubrzanja korona virusa, videli smo smo najbrži pad američke berze u istoriji od 25% – brži od Velike depresije.

Neki se odlučuju za ulaganje u obveznice i drugu finansijsku imovinu, ali ’prinosi’ za tu imovinu – procenat kamate zarađene na imovinu iz godine u godinu – stalno opada. Sve veći broj odredjenih imovina ima čak i negativne prinose, što znači da posedovanje te imovine košta! Ovo je veliki problem za sve koji se oslanjaju na penziju. Plus, s obzirom na to da su akcije denominovane u tradicionalnim valutama poput dolara i evra, inflacija pojede prinos koji investitor dobije.

Najgore od svega je to što ti isti ekonomski krahovi koji uzrokuju masovna otpuštanja i teško tržište rada takođe znače i nagli pad cena akcija. Čuvanje ušteđevine u akcijama može značiti i gubitak štednje i gubitak posla zbog recesije. Teška vremena mogu da vas prisile da svoje akcije prodate po vrlo malim cenama samo da biste platili svoje račune.

A to nije baš siguran način štednje novca.

Zlato

Vrednost zlata neprekidno se povećavala tokom 5000 godina, obično padajući onda kada berza obećava jače prinose.

Cena zlata

Evidencija vrednosti zlata je solidna. Međutim, zlato nosi i druge rizike. Većina ljudi poseduje zlato na papiru. Oni fizički ne poseduju zlato, već ga njihova banka čuva za njih. Zbog toga je zlato veoma podložno konfiskaciji od strane vlade.

Zašto bi vlada konfiskovala nečije zlato, a kamoli u demokratskoj zemlji u „slobodnom svetu“? Ali to se dešavalo i ranije. 1933. godine Izvršnom Naredbom 6102, predsednik Roosevelt naredio je svim Amerikancima da prodaju svoje zlato vladi u zamenu za papirne dolare. Vlada je iskoristila pretnju zatvorom za prikupljanje zlata u fizičkom obliku. Znali su da se zlato više poštuje kao zaliha vrednosti širom sveta od papirnih dolara.

Ako posedujete svoje zlato na nekoj od aplikacija za trgovanje akcijama, možete se kladiti da će vam ga država oduzeti ako joj zatreba. Čak i ako posedujete fizičko zlato, onda ga izlažete mogućnosti krađe – od strane kriminalca ili vaše vlade.

Vaša uštedjevina nije bezbedna.

Rast cena svih gore navedenih sredstava zavisi od našeg trenutnog političkog i ekonomskog sistema koji se nastavlja kao i tokom proteklih 100 godina. Međutim, danas vidimo ogromne pukotine u ovom sistemu.

Sistem ne funkcioniše dobro za većinu ljudi.

Od 1971. plate većine američkih radnika nisu rasle. S druge strane, bogatstvo koje imaju najbogatiji u društvu nalazi se na nivoima koji nisu viđeni više od 80 godina. U međuvremenu, ljudi sve manje i manje veruju institucijama poput banaka i vlada.

EPI Plate VS Produktivnost

CBPP Nejednakost Bogatstva Tokom Vremena

Edelman Studija Poverenja

Širom sveta možemo videti dokaze o slamanju sistema kroz politički ekstremizam: izbor Trampa i drugih ekstremističkih desničarskih kandidata, Bregzit, pokret Occupy, popularizacija koncepta univerzalnog osnovnog dohotka, povratak pojma „socijalizam“ nazad u modu. Ljudi na svim delovima političkog i društvenog spektra osećaju problematična vremena i posežu za sve radikalnijim rešenjima.

Šta je bolje za štednju od dolara, kuća i akcija?

Pa kako ljudi mogu da štede novac u ovim teškim vremenima? Ili ne koriste tradicionalne valute, ili kupuju sredstva koja će zadržati vrednost u teškim vremenima.

Bitcoin ima najviše potencijala da zadrži vrednost kroz politička i ekonomska previranja od bilo koje druge imovine. Na tom putu će biti rupa na kojima će se rušiti ili pumpati, međutim, njegova svojstva čine ga takvim da će verovatno preživeti previranja kada druga imovina ne bude to mogla.

Šta Bitcoin čini drugačijim?

Bitcoini su retki.

Proces ‘rudarenja’ bitcoin-a, proizvodnju bitcoin-a čini veoma skupom, a Bitcoin protokol ograničava ukupan broj bitcoin-a na 21 milion novčića. To čini Bitcoin imunim na nagle poraste ponude. Ovo se veoma razlikuje od tradicionalnih valuta, koje vlade mogu da štampaju sve više kad god one to požele. Zapamtite, povećanje ponude vrši veliki pritisak na vrednost valute.

Bitcoini nemaju drugu ugovornu stranu.

Bitcoin se takođe razlikuje od imovine kao što su obveznice, akcije i kuće, jer mu nedostaje druga ugovorna strana. Druge ugovorne strane su drugi subjekti uključeni u vrednost sredstva, koji to sredstvo mogu obezvrediti ili vam ga uzeti. Ako imate hipoteku na svojoj kući, banka je druga ugovorna strana. Kada sledeći put dođe do velikog finansijskog kraha, banka vam može oduzeti kuću. Kompanije su kvazi-ugovorne strane akcijama i obveznicama, jer mogu da počnu da donose loše odluke koje utiču na njihovu cenu akcija ili na „neizvršenje“ duga (da ga ne vraćaju vama ili drugim poveriocima). Bitcoin nema ovih problema.

Bitcoin je pristupačan.

Svako sa 5 eura i mobilnim telefonom može da kupi i poseduje mali deo bitcoin-a. Važno je da znate da ne morate da kupite ceo bitcoin. Bitcoin-i su deljivi do 100-milionite jedinice, tako da možete da kupite Bitcoin u vrednosti od samo nekoliko eura. Neuporedivo lakše nego kupovina kuće, zlata ili akcija!

Bitcoin se ne može konfiskovati.

Banke drže većinu vaših eura, zlata i akcija za vas. Većina ljudi u razvijenom svetu veruje bankama, jer većina ljudi koji žive u današnje vreme nikada nije doživela konfiskaciju imovine ili ’šišanje’ od strane banaka ili vlada. Nažalost, postoji presedan za konfiskaciju imovine čak i u demokratskim zemljama sa snažnom vladavinom prava.

Kada vlada konfiskuje imovinu, ona obično ubedi javnost da će je menjati za imovinu jednake vrednosti. U SAD-u 1930-ih, vlada je davala dolare vlasnicima zlata. Vlada je znala da uvek može da odštampa još više dolara, ali da ne može da napravi više zlata. Na Kipru 2012. godine, jedna propala banka je svojim klijentima dala deonice banke da pokrije dolare klijenata koje je banka trebala da ima. I dolari i deonice su strmoglavo opali u odnosu na imovinu koja je uzeta od ovih ljudi.

Doći do bitcoin-a koji ljudi poseduju, biće mnogo teže jer se bitcoin-i mogu čuvati u novčaniku koji ne poseduje neka treća strana, a vi možete čak i da zapamtite privatne ključeve do vašeg bitcoin-a u glavi.

Bitcoin je za štednju.

Bitcoin se polako pokazuje kao najbolja opcija za dugoročnu štednju novca, posebno s obzirom na današnju ekonomsku klimu. Posedovanje čak i malog dela, je polisa osiguranja koja se isplati ako svet i dalje nastavi da ludi. Cena Bitcoin-a u dolarima može divlje da varira u roku od godinu ili dve, ali tokom 3+ godine skoro svi vide slične ili više cene od trenutka kada su ga kupili. U stvari, doslovno niko nije izgubio novac čuvajući Bitcoin duže od 3,5 godine – čak i ako je kupio BTC na apsolutnim vrhovima tržišta.

Imajte na umu da nakon ove tačke ti ljudi više nikada nisu videli rizik od gubitka. Cena se nikada nije smanjila niže od najviše cene u prethodnom ciklusu.

Po čemu se Bitcoin razlikuje od ostalih valuta?

Bitcoin funkcioniše tako dobro kao način štednje zbog svog neobičnog dizajna, koji ga čini drugačijim od bilo kog drugog oblika novca koji je postojao pre njega. Bitcoin je digitalna valuta, prvi i verovatno jedini primer valute koja ima ograničenu ponudu dok radi na otvorenom, decentralizovanom sistemu. Vlade strogo kontrolišu valute koje danas koristimo, poput dolara i eura, i proizvode ih za finansiranje ratova i dugova. Korisnici Bitcoin-a – poput vas – kontrolišu Bitcoin protokol.

Evo šta Bitcoin razlikuje od dolara, eura i drugih valuta:

Bitcoin je otvoren sistem.

Svako može da odluči da se pridruži Bitcoin mreži i primeni pravila softverskog protokola, što je dovelo do vrlo decentralizovanog sistema u kojem nijedan pojedinac ili entitet ne može da blokira transakciju, zamrzne sredstva ili da ukrade od druge osobe.Današnji savremeni bankarski sistem se uveliko razlikuje. Nekoliko banaka je dobilo poverenje da gotovo sve valute, akcije i druge vredne predmete čuvaju na “sigurnom” za svoje klijente. Da biste postali banka, potrebni su vam milioni dolara i neverovatne količine političkog uticaja. Da biste pokrenuli Bitcoin čvor i postali „svoja banka“, potrebno vam je nekoliko stotina dolara i jedno slobodno popodne.

Tako izgleda Bitcoin čvor – Node MyNode čvor vam omogućava da postanete svoja banka za samo nekoliko minuta.

Bitcoin ima ograničenu ponudu.

Softverski protokol otvorenog koda koji upravlja Bitcoin sistemom ograničava broj novih bitcoin-a koji se mogu stvoriti tokom vremena, sa ograničenjem od ukupno 21.000.000 bitcoin-a. S druge strane, valute koje danas koristimo imaju neograničenu ponudu. Istorija i sadašnje odluke centralnih banaka govore nam da će vlade uvek štampati sve više i više valuta, sve dok valuta ne bude bezvredna. Sve ovo štampanje uzrokuje inflaciju, što pravi štetu običnim radnim ljudima i štedišama.

Tradicionalne valute su dizajnirane tako da opadaju vremenom. Svaki put kada centralna banka kaže da cilja određenu stopu inflacije, oni ustvari kažu da žele da vaš novac svake godine izgubi određeni procenat svoje vrednosti.

Bitcoin-ova ograničena ponuda znači da je on tako dizajniran da raste vremenom kako se potražnja za njim povećava.

Bitcoin putuje oko sveta za nekoliko minuta.

Svako može da pošalje bitcoin-e za nekoliko minuta širom sveta, bez obzira na granice, banke i vlade. Potrebno je manje od minuta da se transakcija pojavi na novčaniku primaoca i oko 60 minuta da se transakcija u potpunosti „obračuna“, tako da primaoc može da bude siguran da su primljeni bitcoin-i sada njegovi (6 konfirmacija bloka). Slanje drugih valuta širom sveta traje danima ili čak mesecima ako se šalju milionski iznosi, a podrazumeva i visoke naknade.

Neke vlade i novinari tvrde da ova sloboda putovanja koju pruža Bitcoin pomaže kriminalcima i teroristima. Međutim, transakciju Bitcoin-a je lakše pratiti nego većinu transakcija u dolarima ili eurima.

Bitcoin se može čuvati na “USB-u”.

Dizajn Bitcoin-a je takav da vam treba samo da čuvate privatni ključ do svojih ‘bitcoin’ adresa (poput lozinke do bankovnih računa) da biste pristupili svojim bitcoin-ima odakle god poželite. Ovaj privatni ključ možete da sačuvate na disku ili na papiru u obliku 12 ili 24 reči na engleskom jeziku. Kao rezultat toga, možete da držite Bitcoin-e vredne milione dolara u svojoj šaci.

Sve ostale valute danas možete ili da strpate u svoj dušek ili da ih poverite banci na čuvanje. Za većinu ljudi koji žive u razvijenom svetu, i koji ne osporavaju autoritet i poverenje u banku, ovo deluje sasvim dobro. Međutim, oni kojima je potrebno da pobegnu od ugnjetavačke vlade ili koji naljute pogrešne ljude, ne mogu verovati bankama. Za njih je sposobnost da nose svoju ušteđevinu bez potrebe za ogromnim koferom neprocenjiva. Čak i ako ne živite na mestu poput ovog, cena Bitcoin-a se i dalje povećava kada ih neko kome oni trebaju kupi.

Kako Bitcoin spašava svet?

Bitcoin, kao ultimativni način štednje, je cakum pakum, ali da li on pomaže u poboljšanju sveta u celini?

Kao što ćete početi da shvatate, ulazeći sve dublje i u druge sadržaje na ovoj stranici, mnogi temeljni delovi našeg današnjeg monetarnog sistema i ekonomije su duboko slomljeni. Međutim, oni koji upravljaju imaju korist od ovakvih sistema, pa se on verovatno neće promeniti bez revolucije ili mirnog svrgavanja od strane naroda. Bitcoin predstavlja novi sistem, sa nekoliko glavnih prednosti:

• Bitcoin popravlja novac, koji je milenijumima služio kao važan alat za rast i poboljšanje društva.
• Bitcoin vraća zdrav razum pozajmljivanju, uklanjanjem apsurdnih situacija poput negativnih kamatnih stopa (gde zajmitelj plaća da bi se zadužio).
• Bitcoin pokreće ulaganja u obnovljive izvore energije i poboljšava energetsku efikasnost u mreži, služeći kao „krajnji kupac“ za sve vrste energije.

Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?

Ovaj članak vam je dao osnovno razumevanje zašto biste trebali razmišljati o Bitcoin-u. Ako želite da saznate više, preporučujem ove resurse:

• Film "Bitcoin: Kraj Novca Kakav Poznajemo"
• Još uvek je rano za Bitcoin
• Zasto baš Bitcoin?
• Šta je to Bitcoin?
• The Bitcoin Whitepaper ← objavljen 2008. godine, ovo je izložio dizajn za Bitcoin.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Šta uzrokuje Inflaciju?
2. Da li nam je infacija potrebna?
3. Kako se meri inflacija?
4. Da li inflacija pokreće ekonomski rast?
5. Da li inflacija pokreće ili umanjuje nejednakost bogatstva?
6. Gde se danas javlja inflacija?
7. Šta je deflacija?
8. Kakav uticaj inflacija ima na društvo?

Inflacija može da bude uznemirujuća tema, jer uključuje amorfni koncept novca. Međutim, inflacija je zapravo jednostavna tema koja je napravljena da bude složena razdvajanjem novca i drugih dobara. U ovom članku razlažemo inflaciju i njene uzroke.

Najjednostavnija definicija inflacije je rast cena dobara i usluga. Kada cene rastu, to takođe znači da vrednost jedinice novca – poput dolara – opada. Uzmimo primer McDonald’s hamburgera: 1955. ovaj skromni hamburger se prodavao za samo 15 centi. U 2018. godini se prodavao za 1,09 USD. U 2021. godini prodaje se za 2,49 USD – ogroman rast cene od 1650%.

To znači da je dolar izgubio dosta svoje vrednosti. 1955. godine mogli ste da kupite gotovo 7 hamburgera za novčanicu od jednog dolara. 2021. godine taj dolar vam ne bi kupio ni jedan hamburger. Zašto se čini da cene uvek rastu tokom vremena? I šta možete da učinite povodom toga? Ovaj članak ima za cilj da odgovori na ta pitanja.

Ekonomisti pokušavaju da sumiraju rast cena mnogih dobara i usluga kao jedan prosečan broj. Ovaj broj predstavlja promenu ukupnih troškova u godišnjim troškovima prosečnog potrošača, kao što su stanarina, hrana i gorivo.

U Sjedinjenim Državama ovaj broj je poznat kao Indeks Potrošačkih Cena, eng. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Kada se CPI poveća tokom određenog vremenskog perioda, ekonomisti kažu da imamo inflaciju. Kada se smanji, to se naziva deflacija.

Šta uzrokuje Inflaciju?

Mnogi izvori kažu da je stalna inflacija koju danas doživljavamo ili uzrokovana povećanjem potražnje (eng. demand-pull) ili smanjenjem ponude usled povećanih proizvodnih troškova (eng. cost-push).

Ovi razlozi nisu tačni – hajde da pogledamo zašto.

Da bismo razumeli pravi razlog inflacije, moramo da sagledamo dve vrste inflacije:

1. Inflacija Cena: Cene vremenom rastu.
2. Monetarna Inflacija: Količina valute u opticaju raste sa vremenom.

Prva, inflacija cena, retko se javlja tokom dužih perioda (decenije, vekovi) zbog povećane potražnje ili povećanih troškova. Zašto? Tržišta teže da se uravnoteže. Tokom istorije smo više puta videli da povećana potražnja za dobrom povećava njegovu cenu, što podstiče proizvođače da proizvode više tog dobra. Kada se ponuda poveća, cene se smanjuju.

Ovaj ciklus može da potraje nekoliko godina, i javlja se kod gotovo svake robe i „konačnog dobra“ (automobili, televizori, hrana itd.) na Zemlji. Izuzetak su retki metali poput zlata i srebra. Dokazi o tome su prikazani u nastavku.

Kada se poveća trošak za proizvodnju dobra, cena tog dobra često raste da bi pokrila te troškove. Ovaj rast cene dovodi do toga da potrošači tog dobra traže alternativu ili smanjuju potrošnju tog dobra, što dovodi do pada cena na prethodni nivo.

Tržište se prirodno uravnotežava, a cene se smanjuju ili povećanjem ponude ili smanjenjem potražnje.

Da li imamo dokaze da tržišta vremenom uravnotežuju ponudu i potražnju?

Podaci o cenama robe tokom vremena mogu nam dati bolje razumevanje da li tržišta zaista efikasno uravnotežuju ponudu i potražnju. Međutim, cene ne možemo da posmatramo u smislu nacionalnih valuta, jer naše vlade uvek štampaju više svojih nacionalnih valuta.

Oni sprovode monetarnu inflaciju, koja može da izazove inflaciju cena. Posmatranje tržišnih cena u smislu nacionalnih valuta, poput američkog dolara, je poput merenja visine lenjirom koji se neprestano smanjuje. Vaša visina u broju biće sve veća i veća, ali stvarna visina se ne menja.

Mi možemo da znamo da li tržišta uravnotežuju ponudu i potražnju gledajući cene dobara u smislu monetarnog dobra koje ima vrlo konzistentnu ponudu tokom vremena.

Vremenom se pokazalo da zlato ima najmanju monetarnu inflaciju od svih postojećih valuta i dobara. To čini zlato odličnim ‘lenjirom’ za merenje da li tržišta vremenom uravnotežuju ponudu i potražnju. Da bismo bolje razumeli inflaciju cena tokom vremena, pitaćemo koliko unci zlata nešto košta tokom vremena.

Cene u zlatu pokazuju nam da se tržišta vremenom uravnotežuju

Ako cene dobara posmatramo u obliku zlata, vidimo da cene robe prate srednje tačke tokom dužih vremenskih perioda.

Nafta, na primer, je vrlo nestabilna, ali ima tendenciju da se kreće oko 2,5 grama zlata po barelu.

WTI Sirova Nafta u gramima Zlata po Barelu

Cena nafte je promenljiva, ali tokom decenija ima tendenciju da se kreće po strani.

Cene kuća tokom proteklih 10 godina takođe su prilično stabilne, iako imamo fiksnu količinu zemlje na planeti. Vidimo da cene kuća u pogledu zlata imaju tendenciju da variraju oko indeksne cene od oko 80, prikazane na grafikonu.

Shiller-ov US indeks cena kuća u USD i zlatu

Ovaj grafikon je na logaritamskoj skali, što nam omogućava da vizualizujemo zapanjujuća povećanja u zelenoj liniji, koja predstavlja domove u dolarima.

Grafički izražene u američkim dolarima, cene ovih dobara uvek rastu – baš kao i McDonald’s hamburger. Da su povećana potražnja ili povećani troškovi odgovorni za konstantnu inflaciju cena, takođe bismo videli kako se cena ove robe povećava u smislu zlata. Podaci iznad pokazuju da su cene konstantne.

Moraju da postoje i drugi razlozi za upornu inflaciju cena koju smo videli u dolarskim iznosima tokom proteklog veka.

Evo šta znamo o tome šta dugoročno utiče na cene, kao u periodu od 1955. do 2018. godine:

1. Rast produktivnosti uzrokovan inovacijama, što dovodi do pada cena tokom vremena
2. Monetarna inflacija – štampanje velikih količina valute – koja uzrokuje porast cena denominovanih u toj valuti tokom vremena

Znamo da cene izražene u dolarima, eurima i ostalim valutama neprestano rastu. Ako ne mislimo da naša produktivnost kao društva ide unazad, postoji samo jedan jednostavan razlog za inflaciju cena: štampanje većih količina valute, iliti monetarna inflacija.

Naše vlade i banke su zapravo prilično iskrene u pogledu zapanjujućih količina valute koje štampaju. Oni nam svakodnevno govore da oni uzrokuju monetarnu inflaciju.

Da li nam je infacija potrebna?

Bez uporne monetarne inflacije (koja uzrokuje inflaciju cena), naša celokupna savremena ekonomija bi se srušila.

The Guardian

Dozvolite da vam objasnim. Sledeći odeljak može da bude šokantan, i ohrabrujem vas da i sami istražite ukoliko mislite da nisam u pravu.

Kada centralne banke i komercijalne banke daju zajmove, one stvaraju novu valutu.

Kada centralne banke daju zajmove vladama “kupujući državni dug”, one stvaraju novu valutu kada to urade. To omogućava vladama da vode budžetski deficit trošeći više nego što uzimaju od poreza. U tom procesu državni dug se nagomilava.

Komercijalne banke stvaraju novu valutu kada daju zajmove fizičkim licima i preduzećima. Jedino ograničenje koliko novog novca mogu da stvore je zakonski zahtev da banka ima na raspolaganju određeni procenat od ukupnog iznosa novca koji su ljudi deponovali. Zbog toga je naš bankarski sistem poznat kao delimična rezerva – banke pri ruci moraju da imaju samo deo vašeg novca.

Stvaranje valute je neophodno da bi održalo sistem u životu

Budući da se svi zajmovi uglavnom sastoje od novostvorene valute, mora se stvoriti još više valute da bi se taj dug otplatio. A evo i zašto:

Recimo da su prošle godine sve svetske kreditne aktivnosti dovele do stvaranja 100 milijardi dolara. Svih tih 100 milijardi dolara je novostvoreno, i one se duguju bankama sa nekom dodatnom vrednošću za kamate. Odakle dolazi ova dodatna valuta za plaćanje kamata? Budući da ovde govorimo o celokupnoj svetskoj ekonomiji, to plaćanje kamata mora da dodje iz nove količine novostvorene valute.

Sve jedinice današnjih valuta nastale su pozajmljivanjem, a isplata kamate na te zajmove znači da moramo stalno da stvaramo još više nove valute. To dovodi do beskrajne monetarne inflacije. Kada nova valuta cirkuliše kroz ekonomiju, to dovodi do porasta cena: inflacije cena.

Previše monetarne inflacije može dovesti do hiperinflacije cena. U Venecueli je krajem 2018. godine piletina koštala preko 14 miliona Bolivara. Izvor: NBC News

Monetarni sistem se raspada ako se ova monetarna inflacija zaustavi, jer bi to značilo da veliki broj onih koji su uzeli zajam širom sveta ne bi mogao da vrati novac koji su pozajmili – oni ne bi izmirili svoje dugove.

Banke ili zajmodavci koji drže dug tada bi imali bezvrednu imovinu. Budući da vrednost duga podupire vrednost valute, vrednost valute bi strmoglavo padala zajedno sa dugom.

Kada ljudi izgube poverenje u ’tradicionalnu’ valutu, ona brzo postane bezvredna. To se dogodilo u Nemačkoj nakon Prvog svetskog rata, u Peruu devedesetih, Jugoslaviji 1994. ,Zimbabveu, Venecueli i sa još bezbroj drugih tradicionalnih valuta. Da bi odložile ovaj neizbežni ishod dokle god mogu, centralne banke jačaju poverenje u sistem nastavljajući da štampaju valutu stabilnim kursom.

Ovo osigurava da većina ljudi koju su uzeli zajam ima valutu za otplatu svojih kredita. Upravo to se dešava kada vlada izvrši „spas“ kao 2008. ili 2020. – oni osiguravaju da svi imaju dovoljno novca za plaćanje dugova, tako da laž može da se nastavi.

Inflacija ne dolazi iz povećanja potražnje

Sa više valute u opticaju, monetarna inflacija može da izgleda kao povećanje potražnje. Međutim, ekonomisti koji kažu da povećana potražnja pokreće stabilnu inflaciju tokom decenija propuštaju suptilnu poentu: iako monetarna inflacija može da prouzrokuje veću potrošnju, to nije zato što su ljudi zaista bogatiji, već zato što veruju da su bogatiji.

Kada se puno novca ubrizga u ekonomiju, cene jednostavno rastu jer više valute pokriva istu količinu robe. Rast cena znači pad vrednosti valute, tako da nema realnog povećanja stvarnog bogatstva, iako ljudi možda “troše više” u nominalnom iznosu valute.

Uzmimo ovaj primer: vi mesečno zarađujete 1.500 EUR, i prema svom trenutnom načinu života vi mesečno trošite oko 1.500 EUR. Dolazi vlada i počinje da vam daje dodatnih 500 EUR svakog meseca – vi se osećate poprilično dobro, zar ne? Sada možete da izlazite češće u restoran.

Međutim, vlada daje svima po 500 EUR mesečno, i svi ostali takođe troše taj novac. Ekonomista u vladinoj kancelariji, vidi da sada svi troše tih dodatnih 500 EUR mesečno i zaključuje da je vlada ‘stimulisala ekonomiju’.

Ipak, kako sav taj dodatni novac kruži ekonomijom, cene prirodno rastu. Sada vam je potrebno 2.000 EUR da biste održali svoj trenutni način života.

Da li si nešto bogatiji?

Vi možda imate više eura na vašem bankovnom računu, ali svaki od njih vam kupuje manje. Sada trošite 2.000 EUR mesečno da biste živeli životnim stilom koji vas je nekada koštao samo 1.500 EUR mesečno.

Ovo je ono što monetarna inflacija radi, i zašto je toliko pametnih ekonomista zavarano da misle da povećana potražnja, radije nego štampanje novca, pokreće trajnu inflaciju cena.

Da li smo uvek imali inflaciju?

Stalna inflacija cena relativno je nedavna pojava u modernim ekonomijama i započela je u vreme kada su Sjedinjene Države počele da konstantno štampaju valutu. Ako bi promene ponude i potražnje zaista dugoročno uzrokovale inflaciju cena, videli bismo inflaciju cena tokom istorije. Podaci govore drugačiju priču.

Indeks potrošačkih cena, koji se povećava kada imamo inflaciju cena, bio je prilično konstantan pre početka našeg trenutnog tradicionalnog ’fiat’ monetarnog sistema.

Taj sistem je započeo Bretton Woods-ovim sporazumom iz 1945. godine, a ubrzao se kada je Nixon 1971. okončao svetski zlatni standard.

Indeks potrošačkih cena, Sjedinjene Države, 1790-2015

Kako se meri inflacija?

Inflacija cena se često prikazuje kao promena indeksa potrošačkih cena (CPI). CPI je prosek cena raznih dobara koje ljudi kupuju u svakodnevnom životu: hrane, goriva, stanovanja itd. U Sjedinjenim Državama, vladin odsek pod nazivom Biro za statistiku rada (BLS) meri promene cena. To rade tako što posećuju maloprodajne radnje, beleže cene, računaju prosek i izveštavaju godišnju inflaciju kao promenu u odnosu na prošlu godinu.

Stopa inflacije koja se izveštava, je važna svima jer se koristi za određivanje povećanja troškova života i socijalnih davanja, poput plaćanja socijalnog osiguranja. Kada se CPI prilagodi naniže, isplate zarada i naknada su manje nego što bi trebalo da budu.

Efekti su se vremenom sjedinili: osoba koja u svojoj prvoj godini rada zaradi 40.000 USD zarađivaće samo 52.000 USD u svojoj desetoj godini staža, sa povećanim troškovima života od 3% da bi se plata podudarala sa inflacijom. Ako bi vlada umesto toga prijavila inflaciju od 6%, ta osoba bi u svojoj desetoj godini zarađivala 67.500 USD – tj. oko 30% više. Način na koji izračunavamo i prijavljujemo inflaciju ima ogroman uticaj na zaradu većine zaposlenih i građana.

Ovo je inflacija (procentualna promena u CPI) izmerena u poslednjih 20 godina u Sjedinjenim Državama:

Prvobitno je BLS jednostavno beležio cenu korpe robe široke potrošnje svake godine. Međutim, istraživanje Boskinove Komisije 1996. godine dovelo je do novih alata koji Birou za statistiku rada omogućavaju prilagođavanje cena u CPI. Dva najvažnija alata su geometrijsko ponderisanje i hedonika.

Geometrijsko Ponderisanje

Geometrijsko ponderisanje znači da kupovne navike sada mogu da utiču na to koliko promena cene pojedinog dobra utiče na CPI. Ako potrošači kupe manje robe, ona ima manju težinu kada se ubaci u presek indeksa potrošačkih cena. Boskinova Komisija je tvrdila da bi ova promena pomogla da se promene sklonosti potrošača. Međutim, ne postoji način da se utvrdi da li ljudi menjaju svoje kupovne navike jer zapravo žele da kupuju različite stvari. Vrlo je moguće da ljudi kupuju manje određenog dobra jer ono raste u ceni. Stoga geometrijsko ponderisanje uzrokuje da roba sa velikim rastom cena ima manje uticaja na CPI, što dovodi do niže prijavljene inflacije.

Hedonika

Hedonika omogućava Birou za statistiku rada da menja cenu dobra na osnovu njegovog opaženog povećanja ‘korisnosti’ tokom vremena. Evo primera: recimo da se televizor sa rezolucijom od 720p 2009. godine prodavao za 200 USD. U 2010. godini isti model televizora sada ima rezoluciju od 1080p i prodaje se po istoj ceni: 200 USD. Međutim, pošto se tehnologija u televizoru poboljšala, zaposleni u Birou za statistiku rada mogu da izmisle ‘korisni’ broj i pomoću njega oduzmu deo vrednosti od cene televizora. Kao rezultat, BLS može da kaže da TV košta 180 USD u 2010. godini – iako je njegova cena 200 USD. Ovo dovodi do pada prijavljene inflacije.

Oba ova prilagođavanja smanjuju prijavljenu stopu inflacije, što smanjuje povećanje troškova života i isplate naknada za socijalno osiguranje. Koliko ta prilagođavanja inflacije pogađaju radničku klasu i penzionere? Neke procene, poput procena ekonomiste John Williams-a, sa koledža u Darmouthu, stavljaju stvarnu inflaciju u SAD na u proseku 3% – 6% više nego što je izveštavano od strane Bira za statistiku rada. To bi inflaciju u 2020 dovelo do 5% – 8%, umesto na prijavljenih 2%.

U 2021. godini prijavljena inflacija je 5.4%, u prvom kvartalu.

Da li inflacija pokreće ekonomski rast?

Mnogi ljudi veruju da stabilna inflacija pokreće ekonomski rast podstičući investicije i potrošnju umesto štednje. Međutim, osnovni ekonomski podaci pobijaju ovu uobičajenu tvrdnju.

Ako za primer uzmemo Sjedinjene Države, nacija je imala samo kratke periode inflacije od 1775. do oko 1950. godine, kao što pokazuje indeks potrošačkih cena koji je ostao nepromenjen. Inflacija dobija zamah tek nakon 1971. godine, pa bi bilo za očekivati da će i stopa rasta bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP) Sjedinjenih Država porasti nakon 1971. godine.

Indeks potrošačkih cena, Sjedinjene Države, 1790-2015

Međutim, vidimo da se bruto domaći proizvod (BDP) po stanovniku u Sjedinjenim Državama, uobičajena mera ekonomske snage, neprekidno povećavao od 1820. godine do danas po stopi od oko 1,85% godišnje. Ne postoji porast oko 1971. godine, uprkos rastućoj inflaciji koja je započela u to vreme.

Ovo je logaritamski grafikon, koji nam omogućava da bolje vizualizujemo rast tokom vremena: što više logaritamski grafikon podseća na pravu liniju, to je stopa promene konzistentnija. Za više detalja, ovde pogledajte naslov: Rast na tehnološkoj granici i rast dostizanja.

To pokazuje da inflacija ne pokreće ekonomski rast.

Nažalost, imamo dokaze da inflacija ima i druge neželjene posledice, poput nejednakosti bogatstva. Koncentracija bogatstva u top 1%, počela je da raste krajem 1970-ih, nekoliko godina nakon što su Sjedinjene Države skinule svet sa zlatnog standarda i pretvorile se u monetarni sistem zasnovan na dugovima koji zahteva monetarnu inflaciju, a time i inflaciju cena, da bi preživeo.

Za potpunu istoriju tranzicije novca sa robnog sistema na dužni sistem, pročitajte naš članak o novcu.

Da li inflacija pokreće ili umanjuje nejednakost bogatstva?

Veza između inflacije i nejednakosti bogatstva postaje jasna kada pogledamo kako novostvorena valuta ulazi u ekonomiju. Vlade, komercijalne banke, velike korporacije i bogati često koriste kredite da bi iskoristili prednosti svojih moći. Kada podignu kredite, oni novonastalu valutu dobijaju ranije od svih ostalih. Oni imaju koristi od inflacije trošenjem nove valute pre nego što cene počnu da rastu kao rezultat te nove valute koja kruži u ekonomiji. Veliki i bogati subjekti često mogu da dobiju kredite po nižim troškovima od prosečnog građanina ili malog preduzeća. To znači da mogu da povećaju svoje poslovanje i bogatstvo brže od manjih firmi.

Bogati mogu da dobiju jeftine zajmove, zahvaljujući Federalnim Rezervama koje zadržavaju niske kamatne stope. To im omogućava da koriste ovo prednost za ostvarivanje ogromne dobiti.

Inflacija pogadja one koji rade za platu i ne mogu da ulože veći deo svog prihoda. Zarade se polako menjaju, ponekad se uskladjuju samo jednom godišnje. Kao rezultat, cene osnovnih dobara i usluga često rastu mnogo pre nego što zarade porastu. Cena potrošačke korpe takođe se smanjuje sa manipulacijama indeksom potrošačkih cena (CPI) koji skriva rast inflacije.

Gde se danas javlja inflacija?

Rekordno visoka inflacija javlja se u zemljama kao što su Venecuela, Zimbabve, Turska, Iran, Kuba, Južna Afrika i Argentina. To dovodi do sloma trgovine i političke nestabilnosti.

U razvijenom svetu vlade izveštavaju o niskoj inflaciji cena. Međutim, globalni bankarski sistem stvara nove valute u tonama – u toku je velika monetarna inflacija. Centralne banke dovode do sve većeg stvaranja valuta snižavanjem kamatnih stopa. To dovodi do toga da korporacije i pojedinci mogu da uzimaju jeftinije kredite, a svaki kredit znači stvaranje nove valute. Od 2008. godine, gotovo sve glavne centralne banke postavile su kamatne stope blizu nule.

Mnoge centralne banke takođe su pozajmljivale ogromne iznose vladama i bankama koje su propale nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine. Za samo nekoliko meseci, ovo je udvostručilo (ponekad utrostručilo ili učetvorostručilo) novčanu masu mnogih nacija. Oni su ovo nazvali „kvantitativno ublažavanje“.

Ako banke koriste toliku monetarnu inflaciju, zašto onda mi ne vidimo inflaciju cena?

Jednostavno rečeno, većina nove valute nije dospela u ruke običnih ljudi. Kada obični ljudi budu mogli da potroše novoštampanu valutu na svoje svakodnevne potrebe, tada ćemo videti rast CPI i inflacije.

Danas većina valuta ulazi u svet putem bankarskih zajmova, pa banke igraju veliku ulogu u tome gde se dešava inflacija. Banke prvenstveno pozajmljuju vrlo ‘sigurnim’ klijentima poput bogatih pojedinaca, vlada i velikih korporacija. Ovi subjekti kupuju luksuznu robu, umetnička dela, finansijsku imovinu i državne obveznice.

Cene ovih vrsta imovine nisu uključene u CPI, tako da je prijavljena inflacija niska. Kao rezultat, povećanje plata i isplate socijalnog osiguranja su takođe na niskom nivou.

Bogati su uživali u periodu od 2008. do 2021. godine, kada je njihova imovina upumpavana sa velikom količinom novog novca proizvedenog od bankarskih kredita!

Šta se dešava kada nova valuta dodje u ruke običnih ljudi?

Nažalost, jednog dana će sva ova nova valuta da uđe u normalnu ekonomiju i time će se povećati cene svakodnevne robe. To je poćelo da se dešava 2021. godine kao rezultat stimulativnih programa COVID-19 u Sjedinjenim Državama, koji su ljudima distribuirali trilione dolara. Iako je ovo zasigurno poželjnije od spašavanja korporacija, svaka vrsta spašavanja koja uključuje štampanje novca ima gadne dugoročne efekte.

Ovo što sada doživljavamo dogodilo se u Nemačkoj tokom i posle Prvog svetskog rata. Cene u Nemačkoj su zapravo pale tokom Prvog svetskog rata uprkos velikom stvaranju valute od strane Nemačke centralne banke. Nisko poverenje u ekonomiju sprečavalo je nemački narod da troši novac. Međutim, kad se rat završio i kada su ljudi ponovo počeli da ga troše, cene su vrlo naglo skočile i valuta je postala bezvredna. To bi moglo da se dogodi 2020-ih u Sjedinjenim Državama, sa obzirom na predložene programe podsticaja.

Politike poput Univerzalnog Osnovnog Dohotka, eng. Universal Basic Income (UBI), koje izgledaju pogodne za njihova obećanja da će “spasiti ljude”, takođe mogu da pokrenu hiperinflaciju. Obični ljudi bi se osećali imućnije, trošili bi svoju novoštampanu valutu i doveli do brzog rasta cena. Ovo bi u suštini poništilo pozitivan uticaj građana koji dobijaju “besplatan novac” svakog meseca.

Pa kako onda vi možete da zaštitite svoju ušteđevinu od inflacije? Kupujte imovinu koja je retka, potcenjena i koju vlade teško mogu da prigrabe. Ova imovina su plemeniti metali poput zlata, i Bitcoin.

Šta je deflacija?

Deflacija znači pad cena tokom vremena. Mnogi ekonomisti kažu da će ovo dovesti do toga da ljudi gomilaju valutu i da će dovesti do ekonomskog kolapsa, jer ljudi prestaju da kupuju robu i ulažu u preduzeća. To jednostavno nije tačno, jer ljudi uvek imaju potrebe i želje zbog kojih kupuju odredjenu robu. Stalni pad cena tokom vremena jednostavno bi promenio psihologiju potrošačke kulture u kojoj živimo.

Potrošačka kultura potiče od inflacije

Kako je to istina? Pogledajmo na sledećem primeru. Recimo da želite novi auto i da imate dovoljno novca da ga kupite. Poznato je da u našem svetu zbog stalne inflacije vaš novac vremenom postaje sve manje i manje vredan. U paralelnom svemiru u kojem se javlja stalna deflacija, vaš novac vremenom postaje sve vredniji.

• Uz konstantnu inflaciju, auto će koštati nešto više sledeće godine, i nešto više naredne godine. Niste sigurni gde da uložite novac da biste sa vremenom sigurno očuvali njegovu kupovnu moć. Ako niste sigurni da li ćete da kupite auto, ima više finansijskog smisla da ga kupite odmah, da biste dobili najbolju ponudu.
• Uz konstantnu deflaciju, auto će koštati nešto manje sledeće, i još manje naredne godine. Ako samo čuvate vaš novac, sledeće godine ćete dobiti bolju ponudu za auto. Ako niste sigurni da li ćete da kupite auto, ima više finansijskog smisla da sačekate malo duže da biste dobili bolju ponudu.

Sada razmislite o ta dva scenarija, pomnožena bilionima ljudi i proizvoda. Uz konstantnu inflaciju, svako ima malo više razloga da kupuje stvari upravo sada. Uz konstantnu deflaciju, svi sada imaju malo manje razloga da kupuju. Upravo na taj način inflacija je u osnovi naše materijalističke, potrošačke kulture. Deflacija bi mogla da bude lek.

Inflacija uzrokuje loše investicije

Vaš novac godišnje gubi “2%” svoje vrednosti zbog inflacije. Sada, recimo da vas Stefan pita da investirate u njegov Fast food. Nakon uvida u brojeve, verujete da ćete ovom investicijom izgubiti 1% od vrednosti svog novca. Gubitak od 1% u Stefanovom poslu bolji je od gubitka od 2% zbog inflacije, pa se vi odlučujete da uložite. Ovo je loša investicija, eng. malinvestment – investirajući vi ćete da izgubite deo vrednosti. Međutim, čuvanje valute je još gore, zato ulažete.

Mnogi investitori, poput penzijskih fondova, danas su prisiljeni da investiraju u neprofitabilne biznise zbog investicionih mandata i same veličine njihove ‘imovine pod upravljanjem’.

Pristalice konstantno niske inflacije veruju da bi deflacija smanjila investicije. Međutim, to bi samo smanjilo ulaganje u preduzeća sa negativnim očekivanim prinosom poput Stefanovog Fast food-a. Na primer, recimo da je deflacija u proseku oko 2% godišnje. Na ovom tržištu investitori bi jednostavno prestali da ulažu u projekte za koje misle da će im zaraditi manje od 2% godišnjeg povrata ulaganja.

Neznatno deflaciona valuta obeshrabriće ulaganja u lažna i loša preduzeća i podstaći ulaganje u solidna preduzeća koja svetu dodaju vrednost.

Kakav uticaj inflacija ima na društvo?

Inflacija pokreće povećanu potrošnju, smanjenu štednju i povećani dug. Sve ove stvari dovode do toga da većina ljudi mora da radi više sati i duže u starosti. Iako inflacija kažnjava one koji rade za platu, ona obogaćuje vlasnike bilo koje imovine koja dobija na ceni kada nova valuta uđe u sistem. Ova imovina uključuje akcije, umetnička dela, nekretnine i drugu imovinu koju bogataši koriste za čuvanje svog bogatstva.

Vremenom ljudi i firme izmišljaju nove načine za jeftinije stvaranje dobara i usluga višeg kvaliteta. Ovo je poznato kao ‘rast produktivnosti’ i trebalo bi da uzrokuje da cene tokom vremena konstantno padaju, a ne da rastu. Samo konstantno stvaranje valute koje je neophodno zbog monetarnog sistema zasnovanog na dugu naše vlade uzrokuje stalnu inflaciju i njene loše efekte.

Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim pogled u ekonomiju i na to kako ona utiče na njihov život.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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Pregled sadržaja

1. Definisanje novca
2. Šta je sredstvo razmene?
3. Šta je obračunska jedinica?
4. Šta je zaliha vrednosti?
5. Zašto su važne funkcije novca?
6. Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije
7. Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle
8. Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar
9. Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?
10. Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?
11. Efikasnija Ušteda Novca
12. Zasluge
13. Molim vas da šerujete!

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Google izveštava o stalnom povećanju interesa u svetu za pitanje „Šta je novac?“ koji se postavlja iz godine u godinu, od 2004. do 2021., a sa naglim porastom nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine.

I izgleda se da niko nema dobar odgovor za to.

Godišnji proseci mesečnih interesa za pretragu. 100 predstavlja najveći interes za pretragu tokom čitavog perioda, koji se dogodio u decembru 2019. Podaci sa Google Trends-a.

Međutim, odgovaranje na ovo naizgled jednostavno pitanje pomoći će vam da razjasnite ulogu novca u vašem životu. Jednom kada shvatite kako novac funkcioniše, tačno ćete videti i zašto svet danas ludi – i šta učiniti povodom toga. Zato hajde da se udubimo u to.

Na pitanje šta je novac, većina ljudi otvori svoje novčanike i pokaže nekoliko novčanica – “evo, ovo je novac!”

Ali po čemu se ove novčanice razlikuju od stranica vaše omiljene knjige? Pa, naravno, zavod za izradu novčanica te zemlje je odštampao te novčanice iz vašeg novčanika kako bi se oduprla falsifikovanju, i svi ih koriste da bi kupili odredjene stvari.

Međutim, Nemačka Marka imala je sva ova svojstva u prošlosti – ali preduzeća danas ne prihvataju te novčanice. Zapravo, građani Nemačke su početkom dvadesetih godina prošlog veka spaljivali papirne Marke kako bi grejali svoje domove. Marka je imala veću vrednost kao papir za potpalu nego kao novac!

1923. nemačka valuta poznata kao Marka bila je jeftinija od uglja i drveta!

Pa šta to čini novac, novcem?

Ispostavilo se da ovo nije pitanje na koje je lako dati odgovor.

Definisanje novca

Novac nije fizička stvar poput novčanice dolara. Novac je društveni sistem koji koristimo da bismo olakšali trgovinu robom i uslugama. Međutim, tokom istorije fizička monetarna dobra igrala su ključnu ulogu u društvenom sistemu novca, često kao znakovi koji predstavljaju vrednost u monetarnom sistemu. Ovaj sistem ima tri funkcije: 1) Sredstvo Razmene, 2) Obračunsku Jedinicu i 3) Zalihu Vrednosti.

Odakle dolaze ove funkcije, i zašto su one vredne?

Šta je sredstvo razmene?

Sredstvo razmene je neko dobro koje se obično razmenjuje za drugo dobro. Najčešće objašnjenje za to kako su se pojavila sredstva razmene glasi otprilike ovako: Boris ima ječam i želeo bi da kupi ovcu od Marka. Marko ima ovce, ali želi samo piliće. Ana ima piliće, ali ona ne želi ječam ili ovce.

To se naziva problem sticaja potreba: dve strane moraju da žele ono što druga ima da bi mogle da trguju. Ako se želje dve osobe ne podudaraju, oni moraju da pronađu druge ljude sa kojima će trgovati dok svi ne pronađu dobro koje žele.

Ljudi koji trguju robom i uslugama moraju da imaju potrebe koje se podudaraju.

Vremenom, veoma je verovatno da će se određena vrsta robe, poput pšenice, pojaviti kao sredstvo razmene jer su je mnogi ljudi želeli. Uzimajući pšenicu kao primer: pšenica je rešila “sticaje potreba” u mnogim zanatima, jer čak i ako onaj koji prima pšenicu a nije želeo da je koristi za sebe, znao je da će je neko drugi želeti.

Ovo nazivamo prodajnost imovine.

Pšenica je dobar primer dobra za prodaju jer svi moraju da jedu, a od pšenice se pravi hleb. Pšenica ima vrednost kao sastojak hleba i kao dobro koje olakšava trgovinu rešavanjem problema „sticaja potreba“.

Razmislite o svojoj želji da dobijete više novčanica u eurima ili drugoj valuti. Ne možete da jedete novčanice da biste preživeli, a i ne bi vam bile od velike koristi ako poželite da ih koristite kao građevinski materijal za vašu kuću. Međutim, znate da sa tim novčanicama možete da kupite hranu i kuću.

Stvarne fizičke novčanice su beskorisne za vas. Novčanice su vam dragocene samo zato što će ih drugi prihvatiti za stvari koje su vama korisne.

Tokom dugog perioda istorije, novac je evoluirao do te mere da monetarno dobro može imati vrednost, a da to dobro ne služi za bilo koju drugu ‘suštinsku’ upotrebu, poput hrane ili energije. Umesto toga, njegova upotreba je zaliha vrednosti i jednostavna zamena za drugu robu u bilo kom trenutku koji poželite.

Šta jedno dobro čini poželjnijim i prodajnijim od drugog dobra?

Deljivost

Definicija: Sposobnost podele dobra na manje količine.

Loš Primer: Dijamante je teško podeliti na manje komade. Za zajednicu od hiljada ljudi koji dnevno izvrše milione transakcija, dijamanti čine loše sredstvo razmene. Previše su retki i nedeljivi da bi se koristili za mnoge transakcije.

Ujednačenost

Definicija: Sličnost pojedinačnih jedinica odredjenog dobra.

Loš Primer: Krave nisu ujednačene – neke su veće, neke manje, neke bolesne, neke zdrave. Sa druge strane, unca čistog zlata je jednolična – jedna unca je potpuno ista kao sledeća. Ovo svojstvo se takođe često naziva zamenljivost.

Prenosivost

Definicija: Lakoća transporta dobra.

Loš Primer: Krava nije baš prenosiva. Zlatnici su prilično prenosivi. Papirne novčanice su još prenošljivije. Knjiga u kojoj se jednostavno beleži vlasništvo nad tim vrednostima (poput Rai kamenog sistema ili digitalnog bankovnog računa) je neverovatno prenosiva, jer nema fizičkog dobra koje treba nositi sa sobom za kupovinu. Postoji samo sistem za evidentiranje vlasništva nad tim vrednostima u nematerijalnom obliku.

Kako dobro postaje sredstvo razmene?

Dobra postaju, i ostaju sredstva razmene zbog svoje univerzalne potražnje, takođe poznate kao njihova prodajnost, čemu pomažu svojstva koja su gore nabrojana.

Mnogo različitih dobara mogu u različitoj meri delovati kao sredstva razmene u ekonomiji. Danas, naša globalna ekonomija koristi valute koje izdaju države, zlato, pa čak i robu poput nafte kao sredstvo razmene.

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Šta je obračunska jedinica?

Stvari se komplikuju kada u ekonomiji postoji mnogo robe koja se prodaje. Čak i sa samo 5 dobara, postoji 10 “kurseva razmene” između svake robe kojih svi u ekonomiji moraju da se sete: 1 svinja se menja za 15 pilića, 1 pile se menja za 15 litara mleka, desetak jaja se menja za 15 litara mleka, i tako dalje. Ako ekonomija ima 50 dobara, među njima postoji 1.225 “kurseva razmene”!

Sredstvo za merenje vrednosti

Zamislite obračunsku jedinicu kao sredstvo za merenje vrednosti. Umesto da se sećamo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa drugim dobrima, mi samo treba da se setimo vrednosti svakog dobra u poredjenju sa jednim dobrom – obračunskom jedinicom.

Umesto da se setimo 1.225 kurseva razmene kada imamo 50 proizvoda na tržištu, mi treba da zapamtimo samo 50 cena.

Na primer, ne treba da se sećamo da litar mleka vredi 1/15 piletine ili desetak jaja, možemo da se samo setimo da litar mleka košta 1USD.

Poređenje dobara je lakše sa obračunskom jedinicom

Obračunska jedinica takođe olakšava upoređivanje vrednosti i donošenje odluka. Zamislite da pokušavate da kupite par Nike Air Jordan patika kada ih jedan prodavac prodaje za jedno pile, a drugi za 50 klipova kukuruza.

Šta je zaliha vrednosti?

Do sada smo gledali samo primere transakcija koje se odvijaju u određenom trenutku u vremenu.

Međutim, ljudi vrše transakcije tokom vremena – oni štede novac i troše ga kasnije. Da bi odredjeno dobro moglo da funkcioniše pravilno kao monetarno dobro, ono treba da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Novac koji vremenom dobro drži vrednost daje njegovom imaocu više izbora kada će taj novac da potroši.

To znači da prodajnost dobra uključuje njegovu sposobnost da održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Šta jedno dobro čini boljom zalihom vrednosti od drugog dobra?

Trajnost

Definicija: Sposobnost dobra da vremenom zadrži svoj oblik.

Loš Primer: Jagode čine lošu zalihu vrednosti jer se lako oštete i brzo trunu.

Odluka je daleko lakša ako jedan prodavac naplaćuje 150 USD, a drugi 200 USD – odmah je očigledno koja je bolja ponuda jer su vrednosti izražene u istoj jedinici.

Teške za Proizvodnju

Definicija: Teškoće koje ljudi imaju u proizvodnji veće količine dobra.

Loš Primer: Papirne novčanice predstavljaju lošu zalihu vrednosti jer banke i vlade mogu jeftino da ih naprave.

Sa zlatom je suprotno – u ponudi se nalazi ograničena količina uprkos velikoj potražnji za njim, jednostavno zato što ga je vrlo teško iskopati iz zemlje. Ova ograničena ponuda osigurava da svaka jedinica zlata održi vrednost tokom vremena.

Kako dobra postaju zalihe vrednosti?

Dobro postaje zaliha vrednosti ako se vremenom pokaže trajnim i teškim za proizvodnju.

Samo će vreme pokazati da li je neko dobro zaista trajno i da li ga je teško proizvesti. Zbog toga neki oblici novca su postojali vekovima pre nego što je neko otkrio način da ih proizvede više, i na kraju se to dobro više nije koristilo kao novac.

Ovo je priča o školjkama, Rai kamenju i mnogim drugim oblicima novca tokom istorije.

Zlato je primer dobra koje je hiljadama godina služilo kao dobra zaliha vrednosti. Zlato se ne razgrađuje tokom vremena i još uvek ga je teško proizvesti. Hiljadama godina alhemičari su bezuspešno pokušavali da sintetišu zlato iz jeftinih materijala.

Čak i sa današnjim naprednim rudarskim tehnikama, svake godine svi svetski rudnici zlata zajedno mogu da proizvedu samo 2% od ukupne ponude zlata u prometu.

Teškoće u proizvodnji zlata daju izuzetno visok odnos “zaliha i protoka”: zaliha je broj postojećih jedinica, a protok su nove jedinice stvorene tokom određenog vremenskog perioda. Svake godine se stvori vrlo malo novih jedinica zlata, iako je potražnja za zlatom obično vrlo velika.

Kombinujući ovo sa deljivošću, ujednačenošću i prenosivošću zlata, nije ni čudo što je zlato čovečanstvu služilo kao monetarno dobro tokom poslednjih 5.000 godina. Pošto je zlato teško proizvesti, možemo ga nazvati teškim novcem (hard money).

Kao rezultat toga, svoju vrednost je u velikoj meri zadržao kroz milenijume. Cena većine dobara i usluga u pogledu zlata zapravo se vremenom smanjivala kao rezultat tehnoloških inovacija, koje sve proizvode čine jeftinijim.

Uzmimo na primer cene hrane prema praćenju Kancelarije za hranu i poljoprivredu UN-a: sa obzirom na skokove u poljoprivrednoj tehnologiji tokom poslednjih 60 godina, cene hrane drastično su pale kada se procenjuju u zlatu. To čak i važi uprkos činjenici da obični ljudi retko koriste zlato za kupovinu stvari.

Cene hrane su padale u pogledu zlata tokom proteklih 60 godina, i mnogo pre toga (FAO Indeks Cena Hrane u Zlatu)

Zaliha vrednosti omogućava ljudima da uštede novac kako bi mogli da ga ulažu u pokretanje preduzeća i obrazovanje, povećavajući produktivnost društva.

Monetarna dobra koja dobro čuvaju vrednost takođe podstiču dugoročniji pogled na život, ili kratke vremenske preference. Pojedinac može da radi 10 godina, uštedi odredjeno monetarno dobro koje je dobra zaliha vrednosti, i nema potrebe da se plaši da će njegova ušteđevina biti izbrisana krahom tržišta ili povećanjem ponude tog dobra.

Zašto su važne funkcije novca?

Kada neki oblik novca izgubi bilo koju od svojih važnih funkcija kao što su sredstvo razmene, obračunska jedinica i zaliha vrednosti, celokupna ekonomija i društvo mogu da se rastrgnu.

Tokom istorije često vidimo grupe ljudi koje eksploatišu druge iskorišćavajući nesporazume o novcu i važnosti njegovih funkcija.

Sledeće, proći ću kroz istoriju novca, prvo hipotetički da bih ilustrovao poentu, a zatim ću preći na stvarne istorijske primere. Kroz ove primere videćemo štetne efekte na društva u slučajevima kada se izgubi samo jedna od tih ključnih funkcija novca.

Novac Gubi Funkciju: Alhemičar iz Njutonije

Kroz istoriju, mnoga dobra su dolazila i odlazila kao oblici novca. Na žalost, kada se neki oblik novca ukine, ponekad postoji grupa ljudi koja eksploatiše drugi oblik manipulišući tim novcem.

Hajde da pogledamo hipotetičko selo zvano Njutonija da bismo razumeli kako dolazi do ove eksploatacije.

Zelene perle postaju Novac

Tokom stotina godina ribolova u obližnjoj reci, stanovnici Njutonije sakupljali su zelene perle iz vode. Zrnca su mala, lagana, izdržljiva, jednolična i retko se pojavljuju u reci. Ljudi prvo priželjkuju perle zbog svoje lepote. Na kraju, seljani shvataju da svi drugi žele perle – one se vrlo lako mogu prodati. Zrnca uskoro postaju sredstvo razmene i obračunska jedinica u selu: pile je 5 zrna, vreća jabuka 2 zrna, krava 80 zrna.

Ukupna ponuda perli je prilično konstantna i cene se vremenom ne menjaju mnogo. Seoski starešina je uveren da može da se opustiti u poslednjim danima živeći od svoje velike zalihe perli.

Alhemičar stvara više perli

Seoski alhemičar je poželeo da bude bogat čovek, ali nije voleo da vredno radi na tome. Umesto da traži perle u reci ili da prodaje vrednu robu drugim seljanima, on sedeo je u svojoj laboratoriji. Na kraju je otkrio kako da lako stvori stotine perli sa malo peska i vatre.

Seljani koji su tragali za perlama u reci bili su srećni ako bi svaki dan pronašli po 1 zrno. Alhemičar je mogao da proizvede stotine uz malo napora.

Alhemičar troši svoje perle

Budući da je bio prilično zao, alhemičar nije svoj metod pravljenja zrna delio ni sa kim drugim. Stvorio je sebi još više perli i počeo da ih troši za dobra na tržištu u Njutoniji. Tokom sledećih meseci, alhemičar je kupio farmu pilića, nekoliko krava, finu svilu, posteljine i ogromno imanje. On je imao priliku da kupi ova dobra po normalnim cenama na tržištu.

Alhemičarevo trošenje ostavljalo je seljanima mnogo perli, ali malo njihove vredne robe.

Svi seljani su se osećali bogatima – imali su tone perli! Međutim, polako su primetili da i svi ostali takodje imaju tone.

Cene počinju da rastu

Uzgajivač pilića primetio je da sva roba koju je trebalo da kupi na pijaci poskupela. Džak jabuka sada se prodaje za 100 perli – 50 puta više od njihove cene pre nekoliko meseci!

Iako je sada imao hiljade perli, uskoro bi mogao da ostane bez njih zbog ovih cena. Pitao se – da li zaista može sebi da priušti da prodaje svoje piliće za samo 5 perli po komadu? Morao je i on da podigne svoje cene.

Jednostavno rečeno, kao rezultat alhemičarevog trošenja njegovih novostvorenih perli, bilo je previše perli koje su jurile premalo dobara – pa su cene porasle.

Kupci robe bili su spremni da potroše više perli da bi kupili potrebna dobra. Prodavci robe su trebali da naplate više da bi bili sigurni da su zaradili dovoljno da kupe potrebna dobra za sebe.

Budući da su cene svih dobara porasle, možemo reći da se vrednost svake perle smanjila.

Nejednakost bogatstva raste

Seoski starešina, koji je vredno radio da sačuva hiljade perli, sada se našao osiromašenim i gladnim. U međuvremenu, alhemičar je udobno sedeo na svom velikom imanju sa kravama, pilićima i slugama koji su se brinuli za svaki njegov hir.

Alhemičar je efikasno ukrao bogatstvo celog sela, tako što je jeftino proizvodio perle i koristio ih za kupovinu vredne robe.

Ono što je najvažnije, kupio je robu pre nego što je tržište shvatilo da je više perli u opticaju i da ima manje robe, što je dovelo do rasta cena. Ova dodatna proizvodnja perli nije dodala korisnu robu ili usluge selu.

Eksploatacija pomoću Novca: Agri Perle

Nažalost, priča o alhemičaru iz Njutonije nije u potpunosti hipotetička. Ovaj prenos bogatstva kroz stvaranje novca ima istorijske i moderne presedane.

Na primer, afrička plemena su nekada koristila staklene perle, poznate kao “agri perle”, kao sredstvo razmene. U to vreme plemenskim ljudima je bilo veoma teško da prave staklene perle, i one su predstavljale težak novac unutar njihovog plemenskog društva.

Niko nije mogao jeftino da proizvede perle i koristiti ih za kupovinu skupe, vredne robe poput kuća, hrane i odeće.

Sve se promenilo kada su stigli Evropljani, i primetili upotrebu staklenih perli kao novca.

U to vreme, Evropljani su mogli jeftino da stvaraju staklo u velikim količinama. Kao rezultat toga, Evropljani su počeli tajno da uvoze perle i koriste ih za kupovinu dobara, usluga i robova od Afrikanaca.

Vremenom se iz Afrike izvlačila vredna roba i ljudi, dok je plemenima ostajalo mnogo perli i malo robe.

Perle su izgubile veći deo vrednosti zbog inflacije uzrokovane snabdevanjem od strane Evropljana.

Rezultat je bio osiromašenje afričkih plemena i bogaćenje Evropljana, kako to ovde objašnjava monetarni istoričar Bezant Denier.

Dragocena roba je kupljena jeftino proizvedenim monetarnim dobrom.

Profitiranje na proizvodnji novca: Emisiona dobit

Ova priča ilustruje kako se bogatstvo prenosi kada jedna grupa može jeftino da proizvodi monetarno dobro.

Razlika između troškova proizvodnje monetarnog dobra i vrednosti tog monetarnog dobra poznata je kao emisiona dobit, eng. seignorage.

Kada je monetarno dobro mnogo vrednije od troškova proizvodnje, ljudi će proizvesti više od monetarnog dobra da bi uhvatili profit od emisione dobiti.

Na kraju će ova povećana ponuda dovesti do pada vrednosti monetarnog dobra. To je zbog zakona ponude i potražnje: kada se ponuda povećava, cena (poznata i kao vrednost) dobra opada.

Novac Gubi Funkciju 2. Deo: Kejnslandski Bankar

U priči o Njutoniji, alhemičar je otkrio način da se od malo peska jeftino stvori više zelenih perli. To se u stvarnosti odigralo kroz trgovinu između Evropljana i Afrikanaca, pričom o agri perlama. Međutim, ove priče su pomalo zastarele – mi više ne trgujemo robom za perle.

Da bismo nas doveli do modernog doba, hajde da promenimo neka imena u našoj priči:

1. Selo Njutonija postaje država koja se zove Kejnsland
2. Alhemičar postaje bankar
3. Seoski starešina postaje penzioner
4. Zelene perle postaju zlato, koje niko ne može jeftinije da stvori – čak ni bankar.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Zlato

Kao i u stvarnosti, bankar u ovoj priči nema formulu ili trik da stvori više zlata. Međutim, bankar bezbedno čuva zlato u vlasništvu svakog građanina Kejnslanda. Bankar daje svakom građaninu po jednu potvrdu za svaku uncu zlata koje ima u svom trezoru.

Te potvrde se mogu iskoristiti u bilo koje vreme za stvarno zlato. Papirne potvrde ili novčanice su mnogo pogodnije za plaćanje nego nošenje zlata kroz supermarket.

Građani su srećni – oni imaju prikladno sredstvo plaćanja u vidu bankarevih novčanica, i znaju da niko ne može da ukrade njihovo bogatstvo falsifikujući više zlata.

Građani na kraju počinju da plaćaju u potpunosti papirnim novčanicama, ne trudeći se nikad da zamene svoje novčanice za zlato. Na kraju, novčanice postaju “dobre kao i zlato” – svaka predstavlja fiksnu količinu zlata u bankarevom trezoru.

Ukupno kruži 1.000.000 novčanica, od kojih je svaka otkupljiva za jednu uncu zlata. 1.000.000 unci zlata sedi u bankarevom trezoru. Svaka novčanica je u potpunosti podržana u zlatu.

Starešina koji je sačuvao sve svoje perle u priči o Njutoniji sada je penzioner u Kejnslandu, koji svoje zlato drži u banci i planira da ugodno živi od novčanica koje je dobio zauzvrat.

Hajde da u ovu priču dodamo i novi lik: premijera Kejnslanda. Premijer naplaćuje porez od građana i koristi ga za plaćanje javnih usluga poput policije i vojske. Premijer takođe drži vladino zlato kod bankara.

Bankar Menja Papirne Novčanice za Dug

Premijer želi da osigura da nacionalno zlato ostane na sigurnom, pa banku štiti policijom. Bankar i premijer se zbog toga zbližavaju, pa premijer traži uslugu. Traži od bankara da kreira 200.000 novčanica za premijera, uz obećanje da će mu premijer vratiti za pet godina. Premijeru su novčanice potrebne za finansiranje rata. Građani Kejnslanda borili su se protiv većih poreza zbog finansiranja rata, pa je morao da se obrati bankaru.

Bankar se slaže da izradi novčanice, ali pod jednim uslovom: bankar uzima deo od 10.000 novčanica za sebe. Premijer prihvata posao kojim bankar ’kupuje državni dug’. Sada je u opticaju 1.200.000 novčanica, potpomognutih kombinacijom 1.000.000 unci zlata i ugovorom o dugu sa vladom za 200.000 novčanica.

Premijer troši svoje nove novčanice na bombe kupujući ih od dobavljača iz domaće vojne industrije, a bankar sebi kupuje veliki luksuzni stan.

Dobavljač iz vojne industrije koristi sve nove novčanice koje je dobio od premijera da kupi amonijum nitrat (đubrivo koje se koristi u bombama) za proizvodnju bombi. Sve njegove kupovine povećavaju cenu đubriva za uzgajivače pšenice u Kejnslandu, pa oni podižu cenu pšenice.

Kao uzrok toga, pekar koji kupuje pšenicu treba da podigne cenu svog hleba da bi ostao u poslu. Na taj način cene u Kejnslandu počinju da rastu, baš kao što su to činile u Njutoniji kada su nove perle ušle u opticaj.

Papirne Novčanice Više Ne Predstavljaju Zlato

Penzioner nailazi na finansijski časopis u kojem se pominje premijerov dogovor da se zaduži za finansiranje rata. Obzirom da je mudar, on zna da bombe loše vraćaju ulaganje i sumnja da će premijer ikada da vrati svoj dug.

Ako on ‘podmiri’ svoj dug, to bi ostavilo 1.200.000 novčanica u opticaju sa samo 1.000.000 unci zlata da bi ih podržalo, obezvređujući njegovu ušteđevinu. Već oseća stisak u džepu zbog porasta cena, i on odlučuje da se uputi u lokalnu banku i preda svoje novčanice i zameni ih za zlato, koje niko ne može da napravi u većoj količini.

Kada penzioner stigne u banku, on zatiče i mnoge druge okupljene oko banke. Svi oni se nadaju da će uzeti zlato koje predstavljaju njihove novčanice. Građani Kejnslanda sa pravom se plaše da njihove novčanice gube na vrednosti – oni to već osećaju zbog porasta cena.

Vrata su zaključana, sa obaveštenjem bankara na njima:

Po nalogu premijera, onom koji se plaši za stabilnost ove bankarske institucije, ova banka više neće podržavati konvertibilnost papirnih novčanica u zlato. Hvala vam!

Gomila se razilazi, ostavljena sa jednim izborom: da zadrže svoje novčanice, koje sada vrede manje od 1 unce zlata. Građani sa dovoljno finansijske stabilnosti odlučuju da ulože svoje novčanice u kupovinu akcija banke i kompanija vojne industrije, koje dobro posluju jer mogu da kupuju stvari pre nego što se povećaju tržišne cene.

Mnogi ljudi nisu u mogućnosti da investiraju – oni moraju da gledaju kako njihove zarade stagniraju i kako njihova ušteđevina polako ali sigurno gubi vrednost.

Penzioner, koji se nadao da će živeti od novčanica koje je zaradio tokom svojih 40 radnih godina, sada 40 sati nedeljno provodi iza kase u lokalnoj prodavnici, pitajući se gde je sve pošlo po zlu.

Dug Nikada Nije Otplaćen

Prošlo je nekoliko godina, a premijerov dug prema banci dolazi na naplatu. Budući da je potrošio svih 200.000 novčanica na bombe, koje nemaju baš dobar povraćaj ulaganja, on nema novčanice koje može da vrati banci. Plus, premijer želi da kupi još bombi za svoj rat.

Bankar uverava premijera da je sve u redu. Bankar će napraviti novi ugovor o dugu za 600.000 novčanica, koji bi trebao da stigne na naplatu u narednih 5 godina. Premijer može da iskoristi 200.000 od tih novih 600.000 novčanica da vrati svoj prvobitni dug prema banci, zadrži još 300.000 da kupi još bombi i da 100.000 bankaru da bi mu platio njegove usluge.

To nastavlja da se dešava – svaki put kada dug dospeva na naplatu, bankar stvara više novčanica za vraćanje starijih dugova i daje premijeru još više novca za trošenje. Ovaj ciklus se nastavlja.

Šta se dešava u Kejnslandu?

• Oni koji prvi dobiju nove novčanice, gledaju kako se njihovo bogatstvo povećava
• To uključuje bankara, premijera, vladu i sve one koji mogu da pristupe mogućnostima za investiranje u preduzeća koja prva dobiju nove novčanice (finansijske, vojne itd.).
• Cene roba rastu
• Cene se ne povećavaju ravnomerno – one se povećavaju gde god nove novčanice prvo uđu u ekonomiju i od tog trenutka imaju efekat talasa na tržišta. U našem primeru prvo raste cena amonijum nitrata, zatim cena pšenice, pa cena hleba. A tek na kraju zarade običnih ljudi.
• Štednja i životni standard opšte populacije se smanjuju
• Najviše pate oni koji žive od plate do plate i ne mogu da ulažu. Čak i oni koji su u mogućnosti da investiraju podložni su hirovima tržišta. Mnogi su prisiljeni da prodaju svoje investicije po niskim cenama tokom pada tržišta samo da bi platili svoje dnevne potrebe.
• Razlika u prihodima i bogatstvu između bogatih i siromašnih se povećava
• Bogatstvo opšte populacije se smanjuje, dok se bogatstvo onih koji su blizu mesta gde se troše nove novčanice povećava. Rezultat je disparitet koji se vremenom samo proširuje.

Da li nas novac danas eksploatiše?

Priča o Njutoniji i stvarna priča o agri perlama u Africi deluju pomalo zastarelo. Priča o Kejnslandu, međutim, deluje neobično poznato. U našem svetu cene robe uvek rastu, i vidimo rekordne nivoe nejednakosti u bogatstvu.

U poslednjem odeljku ovog našeg članka Šta je novac, proći ću kroz nastanak bankarstva i korake koji su bili potrebni da se dođe do današnjeg sistema, gde banke i vlade sarađuju u kontroli ekonomije i samog novca.

Šta su banke, i odakle su one došle?

Pojava bankarstva verovatno se dogodila da bi olakšala poljoprivrednu trgovinu i da bi povećala pogodnosti. Iako su se mnoga društva na kraju konvergirala ka upotrebi zlata i srebra kao novca, ovi metali su bili teški i opasni za nošenje kao tovar. Međutim, u mnogim slučajevima ih nije ni trebalo prevoziti. Uzmite ovaj primer:

Grad treba da plati poljoprivrednicima na selu za žito, a poljoprivrednici gradskoj vojsci za zaštitu od varvara. U ovom dogovoru zlato se kreće u oba smera: prema poljoprivrednicima u selu kako bi im se platilo žito, i nazad u grad da bi se platila vojska. Da bi olakšali ove transakcije, preduzetnici su stvorili koncept banke. Banka je zlato čuvala u sigurnom trezoru i izdavala novčanice od papira. Svaka priznanica je predstavljala potvrdu da njen imaoc poseduje određenu količinu zlata u banci. Imaoc novčanice je u svako doba mogao da uzme svoje zlato nazad vraćanjem te novčanice banci.

Korisnici banke mogli su lakše da trguju sa novčanicama od papira, i onaj koji poseduje novčanice mogao je da preuzme njihovo fizičko zlato u bilo kom trenutku. To je te novčanice učinilo “dobrim kao i zlato”.

Banke su izdržavale svoje poslovanje naplaćujući od kupaca naknadu za skladištenje zlata ili pozajmljivanjem dela zlata i zaračunavanjem kamata na njega. Trgovina na ovaj način je mogla da se odvija sa laganim novčanicama od papira umesto sa teškim vrećama zlatnika.

Ovakva praksa sa transakcijama, korišćenjem papirne valute potpomognute monetarnim dobrima, verovatno je započela u Kini u 7. veku.

Na kraju se proširila Evropom 1600-ih, a svoj zalet dobila je u Holandiji sa bankama poput Amsterdamske Wisselbanke. Novčanice Wisselbank-e često su vredele više od zlata koje ih je podržavalo, zbog dodane vrednosti njihovih pogodnosti.

Uspon nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’

Tokom vekova, zlato je počelo da se sakuplja u trezorima banaka, jer su ljudi više voleli pogodnosti transakcija sa novčanicama.

Na kraju, nacionalne banke u vlasništvu vlada preuzele su ulogu čuvanja zlata od privatnih banaka koje su započeli preduzetnici.

Nacionalne papirne valute potpomognute zlatnim rezervama u nacionalnim bankama zamenile su novčanice iz privatnih banaka. Sve nacionalne valute bile su jednostavno potvrde za zlato koje se nalazilo u trezoru nacionalne banke.

Ovaj sistem je poznat kao zlatni standard – sve valute su jednostavno predstavljale različite težine zlata.

U gornjem levom uglu novčanice možete videti da piše da je novčanica “zamenljiva za zlato”. Savremeni dolari nemaju ovaj natpis, ali inače izgledaju vrlo slično. Izvor

Zlatni sistem je postojao veći deo vremena, sve do Prvog svetskog rata. Vladama je bilo teško da prikupe novac za ovaj rat putem poreza, pa su morale da budu kreativne.

Kada vlade troše više nego što zarađuju na porezima, to se naziva deficitna potrošnja.

Kako vlade mogu ovo da urade? Vlade to rade tako što pozajmljuju novac prodavajući svoj dug.

Tokom Prvog svetskog rata, vlade su građanima i preduzećima prodavale vrstu duga koja se naziva ratna obveznica. Kada građanin kupi ratnu obveznicu, on preda svoj novac vladi i dobije papir u kojem je stajalo vladino obećanje da će vlasniku obveznice vratiti novac, plus kamate, za nekoliko godina.

Plakat koji obaveštava građane, tražeći od njih da kupe ratne obveznice – što predstavlja zajam vladi. Izvor

Centralne banke ‘monetizuju’ državni dug

Međutim, građani i preduzeća nisu bili voljni da kupe dovoljno ratnih obveznica za finansiranje Prvog svetskog rata.

Vlade se nisu predale – pa su zatražile od svojih nacionalnih ‘centralnih banaka’ da one kupe ove obveznice. Centralne banke su otkupile obveznice, ali ih nisu platile valutom potpomognutom postojećim zlatnim rezervama, kao što su to činili građani i banke prilikom kupovine obveznica.

Centralne banke su umesto toga davale vladi novu, sveže štampanu papirnu valutu potpomognutu samo obveznicom. Ovu valutu podržalo je samo obećanje da će im vlada vratiti dugove. Ovo je poznato kao monetizacija duga.

Budući da su ratne obveznice i valuta samo komadi papira, one su lake i jeftine za proizvodnju i mogu se napraviti u ogromnim količinama. Ono što ograničava proizvodnju i jednog i drugog je poverenje.

Ima smisla da se neko rastane od svog teško stečenog novca da kupi državnu obveznicu, samo ako veruje da će vlada da vrati svoj dug, plus kamate. Centralna banka je “krajnji kupac”, što znači da će ona da kupi državne obveznice kada to niko drugi neće da uradi.

Zapamtite, centralnu banku gotovo da ništa ne košta da kupi državne obveznice, jer oni sami štampaju valutu da bi ih kupili.

Zamislite da pridjete najskupljem automobilu u autosalonu – koji košta 100.000 USD. Mislite da je automobil lep, ali taj novac biste radije potrošili na lepši stan – tako da ste spremni da platite samo 40.000 USD za taj auto.

Sada, hajde da zamislimo da imate štampač za novac i da vas košta samo 50 USD za mastilo i papir da bi ištampali 1.000.000 USD. Vi biste odmah kupili auto, čak i ako biste morali da se cenkate sa drugim čovekom, i da ga na kraju platite 150.000 USD!

Ista stvar se dešava kada centralna banka kupuje obveznice (dugove) od vlade. Centralna banka može da stvori valutu toliko jeftino, da su spremni da plate i više nego što bi drugi platili ove obveznice i nastaviće da ih kupuju čak i kada niko drugi ne bude želeo.

Monetizacija duga uzrokuje inflaciju

Kada centralne banke monetizuju državni dug, funkcija novca kao zalihe vrednosti počinje da se nagriza. Vlada troši novi novac koji je dobila od svoje centralne banke na ratnu robu, obroke i još mnogo toga.

Cene roba rastu od ove novoštampane valute koja kruži kroz ekonomiju. Kada se cene povećavaju, to znači da se vrednost svake jedinice valute smanjuje. Svi koji drže valutu sada imaju manje vrednosti. Danas to nazivamo sporim gubitkom funkcije zalihe vrednosti u novčanoj inflaciji.

Za Nemačku nakon Prvog svetskog rata monetizacija duga izazvala je totalni slom Nemačke ekonomije i stvorila uslove za rast fašizma.

Kao deo sporazuma o prekidu vatre koji je okončao Prvi svetski rat, Nemačka je pobednicima morala da plati ogroman novac. Nemačkoj vladi je bio preko potreban novac, pa su prodale obveznice (dug) Rajhsbanci, nemačkoj centralnoj banci.

Ovaj postupak doveo je do toga da je vlada štampala toliko maraka (tadašnja nemačka valuta) da je tempo inflacije u Nemačkoj ubrzan u hiperinflaciju početkom 1920-ih. Cena vekne hleba za samo 4 godine popela se sa 1,2 marke na 428 biliona maraka.

Tokom i posle Prvog svetskog rata, SAD, Britanija, Francuska i mnoge druge vlade pratile su Nemačku u štampanju valute potpomognute državnim dugom.

To je dovelo do toga da su građani želeli da svoju papirnu valutu zamene za zlato, baš kao i penzioner iz priče o Kejnslandu.

Međutim, mnoge vlade su suspendovale konvertibilnost svojih valuta u zlato. Ovim potezom vlade su primorale svoje građane da drže nacionalnu papirnu valutu i gledaju kako se njihova ušteda smanjuje u vrednosti.

Da bi mogle da nastave da štampaju novac i da bi ga trošile na nepopularne programe za koje nisu mogle da skupljaju poreze za finansiranje – poput ratova.

Bretton Woods: Novi monetarni sistem

Nakon razaranja koja su donela dva svetska rata, vlade su uspostavile novi globalni monetarni sistem prema Bretton Woods-ovom sporazumu iz 1944. godine.

Prema ovom sporazumu, valuta svake države konvertovala se po fiksnom kursu sa američkim dolarom. Američki dolar je zauzvrat predstavljao zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu trojsku uncu zlata*.

Sve globalne valute su stoga još uvek bile jednostavna reprezentacija zlata, putem američkih dolara kao posrednika. Redovni građani više nisu mogli da otkupljuju svoje valute za zlato iz Sjedinjenih Država. Međutim, strane centralne banke mogle bi da dođu u Sjedinjene Države da bi zamenile dolare za zlato po stopi od 35 USD za jednu uncu zlata.

Međutim, vlada Sjedinjenih Država nije uvek držala dovoljno zlata da podrži sve dolare u opticaju. Američka vlada nastavila je da finansira proširene socijalne i vojne programe prodajom državnog duga svojoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim rezervama, koja je povećala ponudu dolara bez povećanja ponude zlata koja podupire te dolare.

*Trojna unca je standardna mera čistog zlata i ima malo veću težinu od normalne unce.

Propast Bretton Woods-a

Tokom 1970-ih, sve veći troškovi rata u Vijetnamu i stranih vlada koje su otkupljivale svoje dolare za zlato, stvorili su pritisak na Trezor Sjedinjenih Država.

Ponuda dolara je porasla, dok je zlato u posedu Sjedinjenih Država opalo. Od 1950. pa do početka 1970-ih, rezerve zlata koje je držala vlada Sjedinjenih Država smanjile su se za više od 50%, sa 20 metričkih tona na samo 8 metričkih tona.

Godine 1970. država je imala zlata u vrednosti od samo 12 biliona dolara po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata. Tokom ovog istog vremenskog perioda, ukupna ponuda američkih dolara otišla je sa oko 32 biliona USD na skoro 70 biliona USD.

Zvanične rezerve zlata u SAD-u su naglo padale od 1950. do 1970. godine, dok su se dolari u opticaju povećavali. Izvor: Wikipedia, DollarDaze.org

Američka vlada nije bila u stanju da potkrepi dolare zlatom od 35 dolara po trojnoj unci, što dovelo do rizika za čitav globalni monetarni sistem.

Početkom sedamdesetih godina, trojna unca zlata trebala je da vredi 200 USD da bi u potpunosti podržala sve američke dolare u opticaju. Rečeno na drugi način, Sjedinjene Države su pokušavale da kažu svetu da jedan dolar vredi 1/35 trojne unce zlata, ali u stvarnosti dolar je vredeo samo 1/200 trojne unce.

Kad su strane vlade trebale da pribave dolare za međunarodnu trgovinu i rezerve, bile su opelješene. Francuska vlada je to shvatila šezdesetih godina prošlog veka i počela je da prodaje svoje američke dolare za zlato po zvaničnom kursu od 35 dolara za trojsku uncu zlata.

Zemlje su počinjale da se bude iz šeme američke vlade. SAD su krale bogatstvo putem emisione dobiti, prodajući dolare za 1/35 trojne unce zlata, kada su vredeli samo 1/200 trojske unce.

Nixonov Šok ulazi u ’tradicionalni’ novac

Da bi kuća od karata mogla da ostane na mestu, predsednik Nixon je 1971. najavio da će američka vlada privremeno da obustavi konvertibilnost dolara u zlato.

Strane vlade više nisu mogle da polažu pravo na zlato svojim papirnim dolarima, a dolar više nije bio “poduprt” zlatom. Nixon je tvrdio da će ovo stabilizovati dolar.

50 godina kasnije, kristalno je jasno da je ovo samo pomoglo dolaru da izgubi vrednost i da ovaj “privremeni” program još uvek traje.

Pre 1971. godine, sve globalne valute bile su vezane za američki dolar putem Bretton Woods-ovog sporazuma. Kada je Nixon promenio američki dolar iz dolara podržanog u zlatu u dolar podržan dugom, ovim je promenio i svaku drugu valutu na Zemlji.

Sam je učinio da se celokupna svetska ekonomija zasniva na dugovima. Valute više nisu predstavljale zlato, već su predstavljale vrednost državnog duga.

Zlatni Standard se nikada nije vratio

Konvertibilnost američkih dolara u zlato – zlatni standard – nikada se nije vratio.

Od 1971. godine, čitav globalni monetarni sistem pokreće se tradicionalnim “fiat” valutama: poverenjem u vladine institucije da održavaju valutni sistem.

Većina valuta podržana je kombinacijom duga njihove vlade i drugih tradicionalnih valuta poput dolara i evra. Papirne valute više nisu podržane zlatom, imovinom koja je više od 5000 godina služila kao težak novac.

Danas vas vlade prisiljavaju da plaćate porez u njihovoj valuti i manipulišu saznanjima oko novca kako bi osigurale da potražnja za njihovom valutom ostane velika.

To im omogućava da neprestano štampaju više valuta, da bi je potrošili na vladine projekte, uzrokujući inflaciju cena koja jede i smanjuje bogatstvo i plate.

Američka vlada sada prodaje državne obveznice (dugove), poznate kao obveznice Trezora SAD, eng. US Treasuries, komercijalnim bankama u zamenu za američke dolare.

Vlada koristi te dolare za finansiranje svog budžetskog deficita. Komercijalne banke prodaju mnoge obveznice Trezora SAD, koje su kupile, američkoj centralnoj banci, Federalnim Rezervama.

Federalne rezerve plaćaju komercijalnim bankama sveže štampanim novcem “pomoću računara i upisivanjem količine na račun”, kako je rekao bivši predsednik Fed-a Ben Bernanke.

Ove komercijalne banke često zarađuju samo kupujući obveznice Trezora SAD od države i prodajući ih centralnoj banci. Kupujte nisko, prodajte visoko.

Centralne banke ovaj proces kupovine državnog duga – odnosno pozajmljivanja novca državi – nazivaju operacijama otvorenog tržišta.

Kada centralna banka odjednom kupi velike iznose duga, oni to nazivaju kvantitativnim ublažavanjem. Centralne banke javno najavljuju kupovinu državnog duga, ali vrlo malo ljudi razume šta to zapravo znači.

Euro, jen i svaka druga valuta koja se danas koristi funkcionišu slično kao američki dolar.

Da li će SAD ikada vratiti svoj nacionalni dug? Neobična stvar u vezi sa državnim dugom SAD-a je ta što vlada poseduje štampariju potrebnu za njegovu otplatu.

Kao rezultat toga, kada vlada duguje novac, oni samo pozajme još više novca da bi otplatile taj dug, povećavajući nacionalni dug.

Ako vam ovo zvuči kao Ponzijeva piramidalna šema, to je zato što ona to i jeste – najveća Ponzijeva šema u istoriji. Kao i svaka Ponzijeva šema, nastaviće se sve dok su ljudi koji kupuju Ponzijevu šemu budu uvereni da će im biti plaćeno nazad.

Ako ljudi i nacije prestanu da se zadužuju i koriste američke dolare jer nemaju poverenja u američku vladu ili vide da cena robe raste (tj. dolar postaje sve manje vredan), potražnja za dolarom će opadati, što će izazvati začaranu spiralu.

Ova spirala često završi u hiperinflaciji, kao što smo videli u novijoj istoriji sa Jugoslavijom, Venecuelom, Argentinom, Zimbabveom i mnogim drugim državama.

Ovo je način kako funkcioniše novac na vašem bankovnom računu. Novac svake nacije na svetu pati od istih problema kao i perle i novčanice u pričama o Njutoniji i Kejnslandu.

Kako banke i vlade kradu tvoj novac?

Tokom vekova, stigli smo do monetarnog sistema u kojem banke i vlade mogu da štampaju novu valutu za finansiranje svojih operacija i svojih prijatelja u zločinu, dok kradu bogatstvo svojih građana.

Šta će se desiti sa svetom kada novac bude mogao da štampa svaki narod na planeti?

• Bogatstvo onih koji su blizu pravljenja nove valute se povećava
• Vlada i politički povlašćena klasa ljudi, imaju pristup novoštampanom novcu pre svih ostalih, pa mogu da ga potroše pre nego što cene porastu. Na ovaj efekat pokazao je ekonomista Richard Cantillon sredinom 1700-ih i poznat je kao Cantillonov Efekat.
• Cena robe raste (poznato kao inflacija
• Ne raste sve roba istovremeno u ceni. Roba blizu mesta gde se proizvodi nova valuta – finansijski sektor i vlada – prva raste, i odatle uzrokuje efekt talasa na cene.
• Inflacija se često predstavlja kao promena cene potrošačke korpe, poznata kao Indeks Potrošačkih Cena, eng. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Vlada ima alate za manipulisanje ovim brojem kako bi osigurala da se ona čini niskom i stabilnom, kao što je objašnjeno u našem članku o inflaciji.
• Finansijska imovina često primećuje ogromnu inflaciju, ali bankari to ne nazivaju inflacijom – oni kažu da naša ekonomija cveta! Nakon što su američke Federalne rezerve učetvorostručile ponudu američkih dolara u šest godina nakon finansijske krize 2008. godine, banke koje su dobile te nove dolare, kupile su akcije i obveznice, stvarajući ogroman balon u cenama ove imovine.
• Štednja i životni standard stanovništva se smanjuju
• Plate su jedna od poslednjih “cena” u ekonomiji koja se prilagođava, jer se često povećavaju samo jednom godišnje. U međuvremenu, cene dnevnih potrepština te osobe koja zaradjuje platu neprestano rastu kako novi novac kruži ekonomijom.
• Najviše su pogođeni oni koji žive od plate do plate – a to je 70% Amerikanaca.
• Razlike u prihodima između bogatih i siromašnih se povećavaju, kao što se vidi na grafikonu ispod.

*Koncentracija dohotka na vrhu naglo je porasla od 1970-ih

Zašto i dalje imamo isti monetarni sistem?

Ako ovaj sistem bogate još više obogaćuje, a siromašne još više osiromašuje, dovodeći do političke nestabilnosti, zašto ga onda ne bismo promenili?

Najveći razlog zašto se ništa ne menja je verovatno to što puno toga ne znamo o samom sistemu. Svi svakodnevno koristimo valute svojih vlada, ali većina nas ne razume kako sistem funkcioniše i šta on čini našim društvima.

Obrazovni sistem, mediji i finansijski stručnjaci neprestano nam govore da je monetarni sistem previše komplikovan da bi ga normalni ljudi razumeli. Mnogi od nas se zato i ne trude da pokušaju.

Još nekoliko razloga zašto ovaj sistem nastavlja da opstaje:

• Mnogo je ljudi koji imaju direktnu korist od štampanja novog novca.
• Ti ljudi ne žele nikakve promene i bore se da zadrže tu moć.
• Nacionalne valute su često pogodne
• Kreditne kartice, online bankarstvo i još mnogo toga čine upravljanje nacionalnim valutama i njihovo trošenje lakim i jednostavnim.
• Građani moraju da plaćaju porez u svojoj nacionalnoj valuti
• To stvara potražnju za tom valutom od svih građana, povećavajući njenu vrednost.
• Glavna međunarodna tržišta, poput nafte, denominirana su u dolarima.
• Nafta je potrebna svakoj zemlji na planeti, ali pošto mnogi ne mogu da je proizvode, moraju da je kupuju na međunarodnim berzama. Od 1970-ih na ovim berzama gotovo sva nafta se prodaje za dolare, što stvara potražnju za dolarima. Da bi se odmaknule od ovog sistema, zemlje bi trebale da pronađu novu valutu ili robu za trgovinu naftom, što zahteva vreme i rizike.
• Nije postojala dobra alternativa
• Uz globalnu ekonomiju u realnom vremenu, naš sistem digitalnog bankarstva koji koristi nacionalne valute je pogodan. Transakcija u tvrdom novcu poput zlata bila bi previše nezgrapna za današnji svet. Digitalna valuta pod nazivom Bitcoin, predstavljena 2009. godine, je rastuća alternativa koja nudi čvrst novac koji se kreće brzinom interneta.

Šta je novac, i zašto trebate da brinete?

Novac je alat koji olakšava razmenu dobara. Kao i svako drugo dobro, novac se pridržava zakona ponude i potražnje – povećanje potražnje povećaće njegovu vrednost, a povećanje ponude smanjiće njegovu vrednost.

Na ovaj način novac se ne razlikuje od kuće ili piletine. Međutim, velika prodajnost novca znači da je potražnja za njim uvek velika. Kao rezultat, novac mora biti težak za proizvodnju (a samim tim i ograničen u ponudi) ili će ga onaj ko ga može napraviti, stvoriti toliko, da vremenom više neće služiti kao zaliha vrednosti. Uskoro će izgubiti svoje funkcije kao sredstvo razmene i obračunske jedinice.

Najbolji novac u datoj ekonomiji je onaj koji se najslobodnije kreće – svi ga žele, lako je obaviti transakcije sa njim i koji sa vremenom dobro drži svoju vrednost. Nijedan novac nije savršen u svemu ovome, a neki ističu jednu funkciju novca na štetu drugih.

Iako se istorija ne ponavlja, ona se rimuje, a usponi i padovi monetarnih sistema imaju jasne ritmove. Uspon i pad monetarnog sistema često sledi opšti obrazac koji smo videli u pričama o agri perlama i Kejnslandu: pojavljuje se odredjenji oblik novca koji pomaže ljudima da efikasnije trguju i štede, ali na kraju gubi na vrednosti kada neko shvati kako da ga jeftino stvori u velikoj količini. Međutim, tokom dugog perioda vremena, monetarni sistemi su se poboljšali u sve tri funkcije novca.

Na primer, zlato je tokom vremena dobro služilo kao zaliha vrednosti. Međutim, naša međusobno povezana ekonomija ne bi mogla efikasno da funkcioniše ako bi trebalo da fizičko zlato zamenimo robom i uslugama. Mnogo je lakše kretati se na papirnom i digitalnom novcu, ali istorija nam govori da su vlade i bankari iskoristili ove oblike novca za krađu bogatstva putem inflacije.

Današnji globalni monetarni sistem je vrlo zgodan, a digitalna plaćanja i kreditne kartice olakšavaju trošenje novca. Ovo skriva stalnu inflaciju koja nagriza vrednost svake jedinice novca i dovodi do sve većeg jaza u bogatstvu.

Nadam se da je ovaj članak proširio vaše razumevanje novca i njegove uloge u društvu. Ovo je samo početak svega što treba istražiti o novcu: za kasnije su sačuvane teme o inflaciji, kamatnim stopama, pozajmljivanju, poslovnim ciklusima i još mnogo toga.

Efikasnija Ušteda Novca

Možda se pitate kako zaštititi svoju štednju kada svaki oblik često korišćenog novca i investicija pati od inflacije ponude – koja umanjuje vrednost i prenosi bogatstvo onima koji mogu da stvore novac ili investiciju. Možda se čini da se ništa na planeti danas ne može kvalifikovati kao ‘težak’ novac, ali dve stvari ipak ostaju: zlato i njegov noviji rođak Bitcoin. Obe ove stvari je neverovatno teško proizvesti, a jedna od njih se kreće brzinom interneta i može se čuvati u vašem mozgu.

Ako želite da saznate više o Bitcoin-u kao sredstvu za zaštitu vaše ušteđevine, pročitajte ovde. Ako ste već spremni za kupovinu Bitcoin-a, pogledajte moj vodič za kupovinu Bitcoin-a. Možete početi sa investiranjem sa samo 5 ili 10 €.

Zasluge

Hvala svima koji su pomogli u izradi i uređivanju ove serije o novcu: @ck_SNARKS, @CryptoRothbard, Neil Woodfine, Emil Sandstedt, Taylor Pearson, Parker Lewis, Jason Choi, mojoj porodici i mnogim drugima.

Hvala svima koji su ovo inspirisali i razvili ključne ideje koje su ovde primenjene: Friedrich Hayek, Carl Menger, Ludwig Von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Saifedean Ammous, Dan Held, Pierre Rochard, Stephan Livera, Michael Goldstein, i mnogi drugi.

Molim vas da šerujete! Ako vam je ovaj članak otvorio oči o tome kako funkcioniše naš novac i finansijski sistem, kontaktirajte me ili ostavite komentar!

Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim pogled u ekonomiju i na to kako ona utiče na njihov život.

@ bc6ccd13:f53098e4

It wasn’t so long ago that the mainstream conversation around population was exclusively focused on the dangers of overpopulation. The fatal flaws in the Malthusian theory had yet to be disproven clearly and obviously by observable demographic trends. That’s been gradually changing, and while it’s hardly a mainstream consensus, concerns about falling birthrates and the risk of population collapse have taken over the population conversion on the political right, and sometimes beyond.

There’s no questioning the data at this point. Fertility rates over most of the world have been in precipitous decline, and if the current trajectory continues, global population will peak very soon and fall rather dramatically. And even the falling population itself is much less of a threat than the aging population that will inevitably precede it. Having a large cohort of older and retired people and a small cohort of young workers is an existential threat to the modern welfare state, and to the entire credit-based fiat monetary system that supports it. But that’s a subject for another day.

There are a multitude of different theories that attempt to explain why this is happening. I’ll name some of the most common ones:

• Increased education and employment opportunities for women

• Urbanization

• Economic factors

• Access to contraception

• Changing social and cultural norms

• Delayed marriage

• Improvements in infant mortality rates

• Government policies

• Environmental concerns

• Pornography

• Feminism

• Endocrine disrupting chemicals

• Dating apps

Most rational thinkers agree there must be multiple factors playing a role. But the fact that the problem is so wide-spread, and populations that seem to be resisting the trend are so rare, shows that the strongest underlying factors are cross-culturally powerful and not easily resisted or reversed with marginal cultural differences and standard public policy efforts.

While populations that resist the trend are rare, they are not quite non-existent. A few groups stand out for their persistently high fertility rates. On a geographic basis, sub-Saharan Africa is the only major region still maintaining above-replacement fertility rates. For various reasons, I don’t think Africa is the most useful place to look for answers on what’s causing the decline elsewhere or how it could be reversed. One reason is that Africa seems to be following the global pattern, just with a lag. In another few decades the data may look very different, just like it does for South America today compared to 20 years ago.

In my opinion, a more useful place to look for data is in smaller population sub-groups within a geographic area that have fertility rates significantly higher than the general population levels. Rural populations in general have higher fertility rates than urban populations, but the difference isn’t really enough to consider it significant. The groups that fit this category well seem to be exclusively religious. These include certain Christian denominations in the traditional Anabaptist category including the Amish, Mennonites, and Hutterites, Muslims in some areas, and Jews, particularly the most orthodox sects. Mormons recently fell out of the high-fertility religious group category, which would also make for some interesting research.

It would be fascinating to compare these groups and see what they have in common outside just being religious in nature. I don’t have the knowledge to make that comparison. Instead, I’m going to focus on the group that’s often referenced and analyzed by people without much personal knowledge, the Amish.

I have read numerous articles and comments that reference the Amish to support this or that theory on the cause of falling fertility. One thing I notice is an obvious lack of understanding of the Amish culture, which leads to faulty arguments that don’t reflect reality. This isn’t surprising, given the insular and poorly-understood nature of the culture, the plethora of ridiculously incorrect “Amish” reality TV shows and pop culture myths, and the fact that the number of people with firsthand knowledge of Amish culture from an insider perspective who also write about demographic trends on any public platform is probably zero.

Well, was zero. I’m about to make that one.

My Qualifications

Since I’m claiming to have this knowledge, it’s only fair to give a little background as to how I got it. I choose to stay anonymous on the internet, and given that this is personal information that could make it significantly easier to dox me, I’ll be deliberately vague.

My parents were both born in Amish families. They didn’t stay, opting to leave the Amish church and culture before getting married and starting their family. My grandparents were all Amish, and all my cousins and most of my extended family remain Amish to this day. My parents didn’t move out of the Amish community, staying in the area and joining a conservative Mennonite church that was about the closest thing to being Amish without actually being Amish. The Mennonite community has a generally good relationship with and a lot of respect for the Amish community, given their deep similarities and shared history and cultural background.

I grew up interacting regularly with Amish relatives, neighbors and community members, speaking the Pennsylvania Dutch my parents taught us and used exclusively at home. I’m very certain that a real deep understanding of Amish culture is almost impossible without speaking their language, just like many other cultures around the world. The Amish speak English as their second language, but there are aspects of their culture that aren’t spoken about in English.

This lifelong proximity to and interaction with the Amish community has, I believe, given me some unique insights into the factors supporting their high fertility rates that no amount of academic research will ever uncover.

Who are the Amish?

First, some basics.

The Amish are a traditionalist Christian denomination. The way to understand the Amish is as a religious denomination first, and a culture second. Getting the two mixed up makes it impossible to understand why the Amish live the way they do.

Sure, their unique lifestyles makes them noteworthy as a group. But that lifestyle is based on and maintained by their religious beliefs and convictions.

Fundamentally, the Amish attempt to live out the Gospel as Jesus taught in the Sermon on the Mount. They believe their church has done so historically, and that the best way to make sure they keep doing so in the future is to view any changes to their traditional lifestyle with extreme skepticism and resistance.

The two primary doctrines that separate them from the mainstream Protestant Reformation, which is their group’s origin, are the doctrines of nonconformity and nonresistance. They apply the doctrine of nonconformity, the command to “be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God” in both a spiritual and a practical sense. They believe that Christians are to be radically different from non-Christians, both in their beliefs and attitudes, and in their lifestyle and appearance. And they apply the command to “resist not evil”, nonresistance, to mean that it’s a sin to use physical force or violence against another person for any reason whatsoever. They don’t make any exception for military service of any type, which they object to as a matter of conscience, or for self-defense, which they refuse to engage in even if it means death for themselves or their family.

The Amish do not practice infant baptism. Their young people must choose to be baptized and formally become members of the church, usually in their late teens or early twenties. As part of the baptism ceremony, they make a vow to remain faithful to God and the church until death. The Amish, as a church, interpret this vow to mean that the new church member will remain a member of the Amish church for life. Leaving the Amish church after making this vow and being baptized is viewed as breaking the vow, and is the justification for their practice of shunning, or the ban. Those who do so are cut off from contact with the community in various ways. Typically they won’t eat a meal with a shunned person, ride in a car a shunned person is driving, or do business with a shunned person. That includes immediate family. Failure to enforce this shunning against someone, even your own child, can result in running afoul of the church leadership and also being excommunicated and shunned.

This punishment, however, only applies to people who leave the church after baptism. Those young people who choose not to be baptized and leave the church instead are free to be treated just like any other non-Amish person, although their family essentially disown them and treat them like a shunned person anyway, if they’re especially strict and upset about the betrayal of Amish values.

Most Amish people don’t believe that the Amish are the only true church, or that only Amish people are true Christians. Most are accepting of other conservative Anabaptist denominations, and respect their values and practices as a different but valid way to be Christian. Church teaching strongly suggests that those who fall under the ban are living in sin and won’t make it to heaven. Most individuals, though, probably wouldn’t agree with that in every case if they were free to give their true opinion on the issue.

The Amish maintain a fertility rate of around 6 to 7 children per woman. Some recent research suggests this may be starting to fall somewhat, but the data isn’t extensive enough to make a solid judgement yet.

There are a wide variety of different “flavors” of Amish in different areas of the US, a fact they’re very aware of. The data strongly indicates that the most conservative and technologically primitive communities have slightly higher fertility rates and significantly higher retention rates of young people.

Why do the Amish Maintain High Fertility Rates?

Okay, enough background. Time to dive into the reasons I believe the Amish maintain their historically high fertility rate despite living in a developed, modern economy surrounded by people with dramatically sub-replacement fertility rates.

I thought long and hard about the best way to approach this. Going through a list of factors topically seemed like the obvious one. But the more I thought it through, the less I liked it. For one, how do you arrange the factors? Order of importance? How do you decide that? Also, the factors are so inter-related that they’ll be very tough to separate and understand individually. Finally, it seems dry and boring. Nobody needs that.

So I’m going to try something different. I’m going to approach it from a narrative angle. I’ll try to describe the life of a typical Amish person, from birth to death, in a chronological way. That’s the best approach to present it in a way that makes the culture relatable, while also tying the different factors together logically.

I’ll describe the experience for both men and women as best I can, and try to present the various factors encouraging high fertility as I see them at the appropriate part of the story.

This will likely be an article that gets revised later to address any questions that come up, so don’t consider it the final word on the subject.

Alright, time to get started.

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First off, this might seem obvious, but the typical Amish baby is born into a large family. On average, they’ll have 5 or 6 siblings, and more is not at all uncommon. Families of 10 won’t raise an eyebrow, and 12-16 children aren’t unheard of, especially in the past when mortality was higher and second marriages were more common among younger widowers who went on to have children with their second wife. Humans are social creatures, and the environment and people we grow up surrounded by have a strong influence on our frame of reference. Studies have shown that women are very unlikely to have more children than their mother had. The number of siblings in your family, and in families you observe and interact with, doesn’t determine the number of children you will have, but it does strongly influence the number of children you feel is a “normal” amount. That makes it a kind of ratchet effect, where it’s very unlikely that a generation raised in homes with one or two children will go on to have larger families of their own collectively.

This cultural norm of large families establishes a kind of inertia that normalizes high fertility right from birth. Amish children grow up surrounded by siblings, observing, and as they get older, helping with the care and maintenance of a large family. All their relatives, cousins and extended family are also likely to belong to large families. The average Amish child grows up with dozens of first cousins, and sometimes hundreds of more distant cousins, many of whom they likely know well and socialize with regularly. This experience establishes a mental framework where a large family is assumed to be the default. And there is no stronger human tendency than the urge to fit in with the people around you.

Amish children grow up with strong gender norms taught from a very young age. The Amish culture follows strict and conservative gender roles. Boys and men do male things, girls and women do female things, and there is little effort or desire to create any overlapping space.

Boys grow up doing traditionally masculine things. They play outside, do chores on the farm, help their dad with his work, probably get a BB gun before age 10, go hunting and fishing, play sports, and generally prepare for a lifetime of physical labor and providing for a wife and family.

Girls grow up doing traditionally feminine things. They help care for younger siblings, help with housework, play with dolls, learn to cook and preserve food, learn to sew, and generally prepare for a lifetime of caring for and raising children and maintaining a large household.

It’s a common misconception that the Amish are mostly farmers who live off the land, subsistence style. That’s not at all accurate. While there are still Amish who make their living farming, at least in some areas, that has become the exception. The large scale of modern agriculture means it takes a lot of acres and a lot of machinery to run a profitable commercial farming operation. The Amish reject the use of most modern agricultural machinery, which makes them uncompetitive in commercial agriculture outside more niche markets like dairy, produce, or greenhouses. And the fact that they live in small geographic communities with large families means they quickly buy up all available farmland in an area until they price themselves out of the market. Prime farmland in heavy Amish farming communities like Lancaster, Pennsylvania routinely sells for over $25,000 per acre, which is more than a commercial crop farming operation might bring in over a lifetime.

So the Amish have moved away from a primarily agriculture based economy to various other occupations. In some areas they work in RV factories. Most work in trades, primarily construction. Many are masons, carpenters, cabinet builders, mechanics, welders, etc.

But they reject the ownership of cars, so they still use their characteristic horses and buggies for transportation. In reality, they use cars for most of their transportation needs. But they don’t own cars or have driver’s licenses, so they rely on “Amish taxi drivers” to chauffer them around. The men hire a driver to take them to and from work, if they work in construction or some other job outside the home. The women hire a driver take them to town for their shopping or for other errands. The exception is church. They’re still required to drive to church in a horse and buggy, so every family must keep a horse for that reason, as a bare minimum. In many cases that’s the only time they ever use a horse and buggy, and if it weren’t for that requirement they wouldn’t own one at all.

But that requirement means every Amish family must own enough land to keep a horse, which takes a few acres and a small barn at minimum. This forces them to live in rural areas and raise their families in a somewhat agricultural environment, even if their occupation wouldn’t require that at all. So there are always chores for the children, animals to care for, and space to play outside with their siblings.

Amish children grow up with very limited exposure to mainstream cultural pressures. Their mothers inevitably raise them at home until they start school. They don’t have TV or cell phones, so they aren’t exposed to any mainstream culture on a daily basis.

The Amish have their own schools, typically small one room schools within walking distance of all the families who attend. The teachers are often young single people, always Amish. They primarily teach basic academics: reading, writing, arithmetic, geography, history, etc. While the Amish speak both English and Pennsylvania Dutch, many Amish children are first exposed to English on a daily basis when they start school. School is taught in English, although there is limited teaching of the High German the Amish use in their church services.

Amish children attend school until 8th grade. The schools run the minimum number of days required by the state, usually 160. There is no higher education beyond grade 8. No Amish attend college.

Amish children are taught from little up that they are not like other people. The differences between their culture and mainstream culture are emphasized, and Amish culture is praised as the ideal, at a religious level. They're taught that the way to do what’s right is to do what the church asks, and those who don’t do what the church asks are in the wrong.

The Amish rate and describe everyone on a scale from “high” to “low”. A person who isn’t Amish, who isn’t a Christian, is a “high” person, or an “English” person. To go from being Amish to being “English” is the worst, most damning, failure imaginable. The Amish are “low” people. The more strict and traditional an Amish sect, the “lower” they are. Being “low” is seen as a virtue. Other conservative Christian denominations, particularly other Anabaptist groups, are also considered “low” people and generally viewed favorably, but they aren’t as “low” as the Amish.

Amish boys grow up expecting to start work full time at age 14, and to work at some type of trade or physical labor. There are no white-collar career tracks, essentially. Entrepreneurship is encouraged, and many young Amish men start their own construction crew or home business in their 20s or 30s after a few years of experience working for someone else. Often Amish boys start off working for and with their dad, in whatever trade or business he operates. But if they’re not interested in that particular occupation, they’re free to find another. Amish businesses and tradesmen are always willing to hire young Amish boys and train them in a craft. A good work ethic is considered a virtue, and Amish are known for their skilled craftsmanship and willingness to work harder than the competition. These traits are taught and encouraged from little on up.

Amish men as a whole do very well financially. For one, they start working and developing skills and work ethic a decade earlier than the typical college graduate. The trades pay well, and of course anyone could take advantage of that, but the mainstream narrative discourages men from pursuing a trade career by labeling it low status and keeping them in education until their prime years to gain a work ethic are past. It’s not uncommon for young Amish men just out of 8th grade to land a job on a carpentry crew for $25-30 an hour. With bonuses, some of them are bringing in $90k/year before age 20. Another advantage young Amish men have is lower expenses. They can certainly find places to spend their money, typically hobbies like hunting and fishing, but things like expensive designer clothes and accessories or overpriced car payments aren’t really an option. They also benefit from the Amish exemption to Social Security taxes. The Amish don’t pay into or collect Social Security. More on that later, but it helps immensely to keep more of your paycheck in your early prime working years.

Amish girls grow up expecting to get married at a young age and raise a large family as a traditional housewife. Amish girls aren’t encouraged to have a “career”, and the idea would be silly to them. They are expected to work, but the work is either helping their mom with the household, working on the family farm or business, or doing something like teaching school or working at an Amish farmer’s market to pass the time between leaving school and marriage. It’s never viewed as a permanent occupation, because marriage and motherhood is the default aspirational lifestyle. A common job for young Amish girls is working as a “maid” to help a new mother with housework at the end of pregnancy and for the first few months after childbirth. All new mothers can get this type of help if they want, and it will usually be a younger sister, cousin, or niece of appropriate age. Otherwise the community will find a suitable girl who’s available for the job. A “maid” will sometimes travel to a different Amish community for this reason, given how large extended families are and how frequently Amish families move across the country to a different community. This is often an opportunity for them to attract the attention of a young man outside their local community, and is one of the only ways for a long-distance relationship and marriage to begin.

Amish young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, with very few exceptions. They’re also typically expected to work for their dad in the family business for no pay, and to give any earnings they make at a day job outside the home to their parents. This is typically expected until age 21, or until they get married, whichever comes first. More recently, with the rising cost of land and housing, it’s becoming more common to make age 18 the cutoff. And when a young couple is engaged, the parents typically allow them to start saving their income for their future household. This practice helps parents offset some of the expenses of raising such large families, along with the fact that no money is spent on higher education. It also provides one strong incentive to marry as early as possible.

Amish culture revolves around family and the community. Extended families are large, and people are expected to know and interact with their family. Conversation with a stranger at a social event invariably starts by asking their name, then asking who their parents, grandparents, and other relatives are until some distant family connection or a mutual acquaintance is found. Since the Amish community has a small pool of family names, and tends to heavily favor certain Biblical first names, enough people end up with the same name to make things really confusing. People are often identified by two or three generations of their family, for example “Sam Yoder’s John’s Amos” for an Amos Yoder who’s father was John Yoder and grandfather Sam Yoder.

Social activities are either family events or church events, or both. Weddings and funerals are the main social functions other than church services, and people are expected to attend as many as possible among their family and extended family, regardless of the distance. Given the large family sizes, most Amish have dozens of first cousins and many more distant cousins. Weddings and funerals can be almost weekly events. These are church events as well, so much of the local Amish community will usually attend. It will be an all day event, with the women and girls preparing a lunch and dinner for everyone. After the meal, the women and girls will wash the dishes and clean up, while the men sit around and talk. No cell phones, remember. Talking is the main form of social interaction. Topics typically include work, family news, hunting and fishing stories (Amish men hunt and fish with the same enthusiasm typical American men watch sports), horses, and interesting or funny stories about family and friends. Those with a knack for entertaining oratory are well respected and appreciated in the Amish community.

Of course the women do their fair share of talking as well, in the kitchen while cleaning up after the meal, and later in the living room where they join the men after the domestic work is done. The main topics of conversation always revolve around family, immediate and extended. News travels through the Amish community faster than any social media platform, because nothing builds Amish female status more than being the first to call with the news that great uncle so-and-so was injured in a farming accident or nephew so-and-so has a new baby, along with all the pertinent details about the name, size, and health of the baby and how the mother is doing and how many grandchildren that makes in total for the lucky grandparents.

While the adults are talking, the children are free to play either inside or preferably outside. Trampolines, climbing trees, playing in the hayloft, tag, volleyball, and softball are favorite activities at various ages. The younger boys and girls typically play together, but as they get older the girls spend more time visiting while the boys prefer more structured sports. Softball is a game for boys, but volleyball is popular with mixed teams of boys and girls at any age.

Visiting relatives or other community families is also a popular social activity, especially on “in-between Sunday”. The Amish have church every other week, and the week without church is often an opportunity to visit another family. Invitations are not expected or required, and anyone stopping by will be expected to stay for dinner and into the evening. At these type of events, the older children are often expected to sit and visit with the adults. Sitting still and being quiet are mandatory skills, since church services are 2 hours or longer and held in barns or sheds without air conditioning filled with backless wooden benches. Self-discipline is not an optional virtue, because the alternative is physical discipline.

As Amish young people enter their mid teen years, they go from childhood to youth. At a certain age, usually around 15 or 16, they officially become youth and enter the stage everyone is familiar with, “rumspringa”. That’s a Pennsylvania Dutch word that translates to “running around”. The Amish use it more as a verb, but pop culture has adopted it as a noun based on some wildly inaccurate reality TV shows and depictions.

The reality is, rumspringa varies widely from community to community, mostly based on what the parents and church leaders tolerate. Remember that Amish church membership is a fully voluntary decision, and Amish young people are free to join or not, as they decide. Late teens is the typical age for that decision. In the meantime, they are free to make their own decisions, subject to their parents’ rules. Breaking the rules can mean that at some point, they won’t be welcome to live in their parents’ household any more. That’s a fairly strong deterrent to the most extreme infractions.

At this stage, young Amish men will be buying their own horse and buggy, and both boys and girls will be permitted to attend the Sunday night “singing”. This is a social activity held at someone's house on Sunday evening, involving all the youth in the community coming together for dinner, playing volleyball, and singing German hymns together. The purpose is to provide a somewhat controlled social environment for young men and women to interact and hopefully meet their future spouse. Dating couples can attend together, and dates are permitted after the formal activities, with the young men often driving their date home late at night before finally heading home themselves.

Depending on the tolerance of the community, the informal activities can be a bit more permissive than singing hymns and playing volleyball. Often the buggies will become a typical teenage party scene, with alcohol, smoking, a radio, illicit smartphones and DVD players, and some less-than-reserved interaction between boys and girls. The punishment for getting caught can be severe, but in many cases the adults tend to turn a blind eye to what’s happening, and let the young people do as they please.

A lot more could be said about the dynamics of this cultural practice, but specifics vary so much between communities that I don’t think there’s much value in doing so. The point I think is relevant to this discussion is the question of sex.

There’s no reason to go off into the weeds on how much, if any, sex occurs. Premarital sex is absolutely forbidden. Does it happen anyway? Humans being human, certainly. How much? Probably very little in most cases. Getting pregnant, or getting someone pregnant, is the one transgression with inevitable life-changing consequences. The “shotgun wedding” is alive and well among the Amish, and getting a girl pregnant means marrying her or being expelled from the Amish community permanently, no exceptions. Besides that, getting pregnant outside of marriage is the most disgraceful and shameful thing a girl could do. It happens very very rarely, put it that way.

So casual sex within the community is basically off the table. What about casual sex with “English” people? This is where the Amish cultural practices play a big role. The Amish dress very distinctly. They can’t go anywhere in their traditional clothes without being instantly recognized. They also don’t drive cars, so going somewhere means getting a ride with someone. And their parents will usually keep an eye on their plans and whereabouts. So let’s imagine how an Amish teenager might go about finding a casual sexual encounter.

First off, getting ahold of a cell phone would be essential. They need some way to communicate with the outside world, and coordinate with their “partner in crime.” A lot of Amish teenagers do this, often with the help of slightly older people who have left the Amish, but keep ties with the community, maybe an older sibling or cousin. These are often the same people who buy alcohol for Amish teens.

Then, they need to get some non-Amish clothes. Remember, every trip away from home will take a willing driver, a plausible excuse in a community where everyone knows everyone, and the guarantee of being immediately recognized if seen in public. And the Amish parents know who the “bad kids” are, the ones who left but are willing to help their younger relatives and friends break the rules. Getting caught hanging around with them will probably mean a lot less trust and a lot less freedom in the future.

For the girls, a change of “English” clothes and a new hairstyle will let them blend in quite well. Of course, they can’t be caught leaving or coming home in those clothes, or have the clothes found at home. Lots of logistical hurdles everywhere. For the boys, they have a very distinctive haircut. A new change of clothes won’t fix that. There’s really no way for them to hide the fact that they’re Amish, even if the accent and the lack of a driver’s license don’t give them away.

Assuming they manage all that, and sneak away from home undetected, how will they find someone to hook up with? They’re very insulated from popular culture, and probably not at all comfortable in typical social situations. For the girls, there’s the added risk that an accidental pregnancy, or even just getting caught, would ruin their reputation and any chance of marriage and a family in the Amish community. So they’re unlikely to even try, unless they’re already fully intending to leave the Amish for good. That only really happens if they have a guy ready to marry them outside the Amish community, for reasons I’ll get into more later. Briefly, the Amish culture and schooling leaves women poorly prepared to support themselves outside that culture.

For the boys, there’s the typical difficulty men face in finding casual sexual partners. Multiply that by the difficulty of not having a car or driver’s license, not being experienced in mainstream social norms, plus that obvious and undisguisable Amish haircut. And all that ignores the lifelong teaching that casual sex is sinful and wrong, and those who engage in it are going against the teachings of God and the church. The entire culture is specifically designed to discourage casual sex as strongly as possible, and it does an excellent job at that.

Why does that matter? Well, humans are all very much the same, with the same desires and instincts. And sex is one of the strongest of those desires. The Amish are certainly no different.

So the Amish religious practice and culture offers a very simple choice. You can choose sex outside of marriage, which will be difficult or impossible, occasional at best, and if you get caught will mean expulsion from the community your life is rooted in, and even if you don’t get caught will mean you’re committing a mortal sin that will keep you out of heaven if you don’t repent and change. Or, you can get married and have all the sex you want, and be respected and rewarded for it.

That’s really all it takes to sell the idea of marriage to most men.

When a couple does decide to get engaged, of course with permission from the girl’s father, the wedding happens within a reasonably short time, in acknowledgement of the temptation young people face in that situation.

So let’s take a little closer look at the gender differences between the choice to stay single or to marry. It’s helpful to lay out the different life paths available, and how they play out over time.

There are very few Amish who remain single throughout their life, and almost all of them are women. So let’s look at it through a man’s perspective first. What kind of life can a single Amish man expect?

First off, a lifetime of celibacy. There’s hardly any need to go further, that’s a deal breaker for most men. If they choose to stay single for some reason, most will leave the Amish completely rather than accept those terms.

So maybe it’s more useful to look at incentives for early marriage, which is the norm. I’m a strong believer that incentives create outcomes, so I’ll be taking a hard look at incentives throughout this article.

Young people are expected to live with their parents until marriage, in most cases. Remember, no going off to college either. So from age 14 on, they’re stuck living with Mom and Dad, working full time, and not even keeping their own income. That gets old fast. Getting married, moving out, and starting a family looks better every day. Besides that, Amish women do a lot to improve the lives of their men. The Amish are well known for their delicious food. Well, that’s because the Amish women cook and bake. As a single guy, moving out of Mom’s house means not getting delicious home-cooked food every day. And they don’t have an iPhone to order DoorDash either, so it’s pizza delivery, hiring a driver to go to a restaurant, or whatever you can cook yourself. And Amish boys don’t grow up learning how to cook, that’s women’s work. Same with making clothes. Amish mothers and wives sew clothes for their families, since they’re forbidden to wear commercially available clothes in general. So a single guy is dependent on his mom for new clothes as well. Same with washing clothes. Most Amish have fairly modern clothes washing machines, although they don’t use dryers. But washing and folding clothes isn’t a job most boys grow up doing, so they’re pretty lost if they have to try it.

All in all, there aren’t a lot of upsides to staying single longer than absolutely necessary. There are plenty of benefits to marriage, though. For one, marriage is seen as a necessary step to full maturity as a man. It’s even expressed as a visible marker. Single young men typically stay clean-shaven. Once they get married, shaving is completely forbidden, and they are required to grow out a full beard. So the difference between married and single men is obvious at first glance, and is acknowledged as a marker of full maturity.

Then of course there’s the sexual access. No explanation needed.

Then there are all the benefits of an improved lifestyle a stay-at-home wife provides. That includes cooking, cleaning, washing clothes, caring for a garden, preserving food, helping with farm work or chores, and helping with his business. Many Amish wives are very involved in their husband’s career or business, whether that’s managing the bookkeeping, working in the greenhouses, or helping with daily chores on the farm. While most Amish communities use quite modern household appliances, powered with batteries, kerosene, or air pressure, the work of maintaining a household is still much more involved than for the typical American household. Especially when it comes to sewing, which very few American women do at all, but which took a large percentage of women’s time only a few generations ago. Among the Amish it still does.

I’m only focusing on the incentives for marriage right now, because that’s the first step. Of course, most married couples today don’t have 5-8 children, so there’s more to the story. But universal marriage, particularly early marriage, is an essential part of the puzzle.

Shifting focus to the women, here the picture is even more clear. Almost all lifelong single Amish people are women, and that’s not by choice. The Amish still maintain the “old maid” category that used to be part of mainstream culture. Single Amish women are almost invariably single because no man offered to marry them. Here’s why.

If single life is unappealing for Amish men, it’s positively bleak for women. Marriage and family life is the aspirational goal they’re taught from little up. And for good reason.

With their eighth-grade education, and without a driver’s license and car, their income earning potential is very limited. Most young women who aren’t busy on the farm or with the family business work as schoolteachers, housecleaners, babysitters, or cooks and servers at Amish restaurants or farmers’ markets. None of these jobs pay well. Enough to buy a few personal items, but not enough to buy a house or support even one person. And while it might be acceptable for a single Amish man to eventually buy a house and move out, at some point in his late 20s or early 30s, it’s really not acceptable at any age for an Amish old maid. Those old maids typically end up living with their parents, caring for them in old age, working the same type of jobs young girls do, and probably hoping that at some point an older widower with a family will show up and propose.

Marriage has massive lifestyle benefits for women, even more so than for men. Amish men typically do well financially, and often work in construction as well, or have friends and relatives who do. Amish houses are very nice and well constructed to say the least, and the wife gets the house she wants, the way she wants it. Being stingy with a house for your wife isn’t part of an Amish man’s mentality. Amish women are well rewarded for all their hard work keeping house, with a house they’ll be happy keeping. And of course a nice farm or at least some acreage, with space for a big garden, a barn for any animals, and space for greenhouses or whatever she needs for any home business ambitions she might have.

Along with that, Amish women have a lot of flexibility when it comes to spending money. Many Amish women handle most of the family finances. And the money her husband earns is family money, not his money. While the husband has final say in financial decisions, most Amish men don’t say no to their wives’ purchase requests often. Married Amish women have access to all the creature comforts the church allows to make their lives as pleasant as possible.

When it comes to status, the benefits are just as clear. Amish life revolves around family, and nothing is higher status than a thriving family of your own. The Amish version of posting exotic vacation pictures on Instagram is showing up to a social function with your new baby. It’s the automatic center of attention for weeks, until a newer baby show up in the community. And the default topic of conversation is always a woman’s children and their growth and development. Young girls grow up dreaming of the day they can join those conversations, and old maids are always outsiders in a certain sense, pitied by everyone else for their misfortune.

Being an old maid means being poor, low status, pitied by other women, and destined to live with your parents until they pass, with your only bitter-sweet consolation being the role of aunt to your dozens of nieces and nephews and maid to your sisters and sisters-in-law through their many pregnancies. Getting married means access to a man’s income, a nice new house just the way you want it, a farm, and an automatic status boost as a mother and eventually grandmother who always has lots to contribute to the conversation at social events.

As you can imagine, the incentives strongly favor marriage from both directions. Men benefit through improved lifestyle, status, and access to sex. Women benefit through improved lifestyle, economic opportunity, and status in the social hierarchy.

Given that the selection pool for potential partners is limited, mostly to the local Amish community, or occasionally another Amish community if there’s some interaction through family ties or social events, assortative mating is the norm. Young people can be choosy, sure. But they already know most of the people in their potential mating pool, and have probably known those people for most of their lives. They have a pretty good idea how desirable they are to potential partners, and the girls especially have to think long and hard about turning down a suitor. Men are always the initiators of a relationship, and the risk of turning down an eligible man and then never getting another offer, ending up as a dreaded old maid, is always lurking in the back of their minds.

Besides that, both men and women have multiple ways to improve their spouse’s life. Women are much more than just sexual objects. Their domestic role actually raises their husband’s standard of living significantly, in a way he can’t access as a single man. And men are all valuable to women, both for resources and for status as a wife and mother. Even a very average husband or wife is a massive lifestyle boost over remaining single.

By now it should be pretty clear why marriage is almost universal among the Amish, and marriage at what most would consider a young age (19-23) is more common than not. And I haven’t even mentioned any religious teaching, because frankly I don’t think that’s a major force on an individual level. The religious beliefs shape the social and material landscape, and that landscape provides the practical incentives that cause people to make the choices they do. The fact that an Amish interpretation of the Bible encourages marriage and children is one layer removed from the reasons individual 20-year-old Amish men and women choose to get married.

I pointed out earlier that getting married and having a high birthrate, or even getting married young and having a high birthrate, are not exactly the same thing. Plenty of married couples today have one, two, or even no children, even if they got married young enough to have ten if they chose to do so. So why are the Amish different?

There’s the too-obvious answer: they don’t allow the use of contraceptives. Occam’s razor and all, but it deserves a bit more explanation. After all, the Catholic Church doesn’t allow the use of contraceptives either, and look how well that’s working out for them. Of course the enforcement mechanism doesn’t have the teeth among Catholics that it has among the Amish, but that’s not the whole story. If they were motivated enough, there’d be a way to space the children out more, maybe end up without quite so many, without anyone knowing. That doesn’t happen, because the contraceptive ban is a dead letter when couples want to have as many children as possible, which the Amish typically do.

Again, I’ll go back to incentives. What are the incentives to have children specifically, as many as possible, and not just get married and “plan for a family one day”?

For one, status. For both men and women, a large family is a marker of high status. Parents are respected and honored for doing a good job of raising well-adjusted children.

Children are also less of a financial burden for the Amish. Their children are raised well, but not in a financially intensive way that’s become expected today. They don’t have to buy a new car or SUV to fit the family, they don’t buy every child a boatload of expensive electronic gadgets every birthday and Christmas, they don’t have to pay for frequent vacations or college tuition, and they don’t have to eat out or pay for takeout or pay for childcare or a house cleaner since the wife is handling all those domestic roles herself. And the Amish don’t practice helicopter parenting, so children are much more free to play and amuse themselves without constant supervision from their parents. They don’t have to be driven to 17 different weekly structured activities. They have a farm to play on and shelves full of books to read and some toys to play with if the weather is bad, and that’s about it. And of course as the family grows, the older siblings do a large percentage of the housework and help with the younger children.

The older teenagers that are working outside the home typically give their earnings to their parents, but this basically offsets the cost of raising them, so it isn’t really an incentive to have larger families, just the removal of a disincentive.

The strongest real incentive, other than increased status and cultural inertia, that I observe for large families is that the children are the parents’ retirement plan. The Amish don’t work at jobs that offer pensions or benefits. They are exempt from paying into, but also ineligible to receive, Social Security benefits. The Social Security exemption was granted on the basis that the Amish don’t need government payments to support them in old age, because the family and community will do that. And they do.

How does this work out in practice? First, the Amish don’t practice “retirement” the way most people think of it. They teach that work is honorable and every able-bodied man should work to support his family and to help those in need. So as long as a man is physically able to work, he’ll be employed and supporting himself and his wife. And Amish women move directly from the role of mother to the role of grandmother. It’s not at all uncommon, in fact, for a woman’s first grandchild to be born before her last child is born. So plenty of Amish children are an aunt or uncle at birth, and have a niece or nephew older than they are. Grandmothers are extremely involved in helping their daughters and daughters-in-law with childcare, so they don’t often have a big stretch of free time after their children grow up and move out. And besides that, there are still the significant household responsibilities to attend to.

As a couple gets older and perhaps less able to handle everything on their own, they often move to the home of one of their grown children. Typically not into the home directly, but into what’s called a “dody haus” (grandpa house) which might be a small detached house on the same property, or a separate wing of the larger house, like an in-law suite. Here they’re able to live independently, help care for the grandchildren next door, and still be nearby so their children and grandchildren can give any care they may need in old age. If the couple has an unmarried “old maid” daughter, she’ll typically still be living with them and will be the primary caregiver.

If someone doesn’t have children to care for them, the Amish community will find a way to care for them. Some more distant relative or maybe surviving siblings will step in to help. But the expectation and the rule is that your children and grandchildren will care for you after you’re no longer able to care for yourself. Finding yourself growing old without family is an unfortunate and unpleasant situation, regardless how much the community may try to fill that role. Just as throughout earlier stages of life, social functions and social status revolve around children and family, and anyone without them will be incomplete as a person, something of an inevitable outsider to the joys of life. The best insurance against a lonely and uncomfortable old age is a large family, among which there are certain to be sufficient resources to care for you. Many elderly Amish people die with well over a hundred grandchildren and great-grandchildren, and spend their later years constantly surrounded by children and young people who deeply appreciate and respect them. Being taught and shown that respect toward their own grandparents from a young age is a strong incentive to aspire to the same status one day.

I’m not sure exactly where this fits, but I should point out somewhere that the Amish have an absolutely zero tolerance policy toward divorce. There are no legitimate grounds for divorce whatsoever, and anyone who initiates a divorce will be excommunicated from the church and shunned. If an Amish person’s spouse initiates divorce proceedings, they won’t cooperate with those proceedings in any way. If the divorce happens through the legal system without their consent anyway, they can remain a church member in good standing only by staying celibate as long as their spouse remains alive. The only acceptable second marriage is in the case of the death of a spouse. In those cases, a quick remarriage is the rule among widows and widowers with young children, since raising a family is seen as a job for a married couple, not a single person.

It’s hard to say exactly how this stance against divorce influences marriage and fertility. But it certainly limits exposure to the idea of divorce as a “solution” to marriage difficulties, and incentivizes couples to work things out for their own life satisfaction. And it dramatically reduces the financial risks men face in the modern marriage system, where the potential to lose not only their family, but also a significant portion of their material wealth, raises strong disincentives to marriage. The physical realities of married life versus single life in a more low-tech environment probably discourage divorce, but the added threat of complete social and familial ostracization eliminate it almost entirely.

Conclusion

This article is my attempt to provide some insight into the Amish culture that might help us understand the factors causing their unusually high fertility rate. I’ve titled it as part one, because I plan to follow up with some of my personal opinions on how these insights relate to the broader society. I think a lot of the proposed causes of and solutions to the global demographic collapse are completely incorrect, and my opinion is based heavily on my observation of Amish culture. That will be the focus of part two of this article.

Feel free to comment and post questions. My biggest challenge in writing this article is the fact that I take my familiarity with Amish culture for granted to some degree, so I struggled to choose which points are relevant to understanding the culture for an outsider. I’m sure I skipped over plenty of important details that may leave readers feeling confused, so I’ll do my best to answer any questions you post, and update the article with pertinent information I missed.

@ c9badfea:610f861a

Before you post a message or article online, let the LLM check if you are leaking any personal information using this prompt:

Analyze the following text to identify any Personally Identifiable Information (PII): <Your Message>

Replace <Your Message> with your text

If no PII is found, continue by modifying your message to detach it from your personality. You can use any of the following prompts (and further modify it if necessary).

Prompt № 1 - Reddit-Style

Convert the message into a casual, Reddit-style post without losing meaning. Split the message into shorter statements with the same overall meaning. Here is the message: <Your Message>

Prompt № 2 - Advanced Modifications

``` Apply the following modifications to the message: - Rewrite it in lowercase - Use "u" instead of "you" - Use "akchoaly" instead of "actually" - Use "hav" instead of "have" - Use "tgat" instead of "that" - Use comma instead of period - Use British English grammar

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Prompt № 3 - Neutral Tone

Rewrite the message to correct grammar errors, and ensure the tone is neutral and free of emotional language: <Your Message>

Prompt № 4 - Cross Translation Technique

Translate the message into Chinese, then translate the resulting Chinese text back into English. Provide only the final English translation. Here is the message: <Your Message>

Check the modified message and send it.

ℹ️ You can use dialects to obfuscate your language further. For example, if you are from the US, you can tell the LLM to use British grammar and vice versa.

⚠️ Always verify the results. Don't fully trust an LLM.

@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

Since its creation, Bitcoin has marked a turning point in the digital money revolution—but its evolution didn’t stop at the original concept of decentralized transactions. Over the years, new technological solutions have been developed to expand its capabilities, making it more efficient and versatile. Among these innovations, smart contracts and the Lightning Network stand out, enabling increased functionality and scalability of the network, and ensuring a faster, cheaper, and more accessible system.

Smart contracts on Bitcoin

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• Smart contracts on Bitcoin enable functionalities such as:

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03 - Enhanced privacy: With the Taproot upgrade, smart contracts can be more efficient and indistinguishable from regular transactions, improving privacy across the network.

Although smart contracts on Bitcoin are simpler than those on other platforms, this simplicity is a strength—it preserves the network's security and robustness by avoiding complex vulnerabilities.

Lightning Network: scalability and instant transactions

One of the biggest challenges Bitcoin faces is scalability. Since the original network was designed to prioritize security and decentralization, transaction speed can be limited during periods of high demand. To address this issue, the Lightning Network was created—a second-layer solution that enables near-instant transactions with extremely low fees.

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03 - Network decongestion: By moving many transactions to the Lightning Network, Bitcoin’s main chain becomes more efficient and less congested.

In summary, Bitcoin continues to evolve technologically to meet the demands of a global financial system. Smart contracts increase its functionality, offering greater flexibility and security in transactions. The Lightning Network improves scalability, making Bitcoin faster and more practical for everyday use. With these innovations, Bitcoin remains at the forefront of the financial revolution, proving that despite its initial limitations, it continues to adapt and grow as a truly decentralized and global monetary system.

Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

Throughout history, money has always been under the control of central authorities, such as governments and banks. These intermediaries have set the rules of the financial system, controlled the issuance of currency, and overseen transactions. However, with the emergence of Bitcoin, a new paradigm began to take shape: decentralized money. This transformation represents a profound shift in how people store and transfer value, challenging the traditional financial model.

• The traditional model: centralized money

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Despite being the dominant model for centuries, the centralized system has shown its vulnerabilities through numerous economic and political crises. It was in this context that Bitcoin emerged as an innovative alternative.

• The revolution of decentralized money

01 - Elimination of intermediaries: Transactions can be made directly between users, without the need for banks or financial companies.

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This paradigm shift has a significant impact not only on the financial system but also on how people interact with money and protect their wealth.

Challenges and opposition to financial decentralization

The transition to a decentralized financial system faces several challenges, the main one being resistance from traditional institutions. Banks and governments see Bitcoin as a threat to their control over money and seek to regulate or limit its adoption.

There are also technical and educational barriers. Many people still do not fully understand how Bitcoin works, which can hinder its adoption. However, as more people become aware of the benefits of decentralized money, its use is likely to grow.

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Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

@ cff1720e:15c7e2b2

Ich liebe Pareto. Für das was es ist, viel mehr aber für das was es derzeit wird - der Marktplatz der Ideen. Er entsteht durch gemeinsames Engagement von Entwicklern, Autoren und aktiven Lesern. Es ist ein lebendiges Medium, das jeden Tag wächst, quantitativ wie qualitativ, durch offene Interaktion, was es in dieser Form einzigartig macht.\ \ Mein Text ist inspiriert durch den Artikel von Alexa Rodrian vom 22. Mai über den Auftritt von Wolf Biermann bei der Verleihung des Deutschen Filmpreises.  Alexa ist keine Publizistin, genau wie zahlreiche unserer Autoren, aber sie hat einen bemerkenswerten Beitrag verfasst. Ich habe ihn spontan geliked, kommentiert und mit einer Spende honoriert. In den vergangenen Tagen habe ich viel darüber reflektiert, und Pareto ermöglicht es mir, und jedem anderen, diese Überlegungen zur “Causa Biermann” hier darzulegen.

MSN kommentierte die anstößige Rede wie folgt: mit einem verfälschten Golda-Meir-Zitat lenkte Biermann das Thema auf das Sterben in Gaza, für das er die Palästinenser selbst verantwortlich machte. „Dass ihr unsere Söhne ermordet habt, werden wir Euch eines Tages verzeihen“, habe Meir zu den Palästinensern gesagt, „aber wir werden euch niemals verzeihen können, dass ihr unsere Söhne gezwungen habt, selber Mörder zu werden.“ Alexa Rodrian, in einer Mischung aus Enttäuschung und Empörung, eröffnete ihren Artikel wie folgt:

„Triff niemals deine Idole“ heißt ein gängiger Ratschlag. In gewendeten Zeiten stehen zu dem die Werte auf dem Kopf – und manche Künstler mit ihnen. Die Worte, die aus manch ihrer Mündern kommen, wirken, als hätte eine fremde Hand sie auf deren Zunge gelegt. Die fremde Hand ist bei Biermann eher unwahrscheinlich, denn sein Hang zu Provokationen und Verletzungen haben Tradition, man erinnere sich an den legendären Auftritt bei einer Feierstunde im Bundestag 2014 in der er die Mitglieder der Linksfraktion als “elenden Rest“ und ”Drachenbrut” bezeichnete. Oder seine Beschimpfungen der (ostdeutschen) Wähler von AfD und BSW im August 2024 in einem Zeit-Interview:  „Die, die zu feige waren in der Diktatur, rebellieren jetzt ohne Risiko gegen die Demokratie.  Den Bequemlichkeiten der Diktatur jammern sie nach, und die Mühen der Demokratie sind ihnen fremd.“

Im Februar 2025 wurde Wolf Biermann für sein Lebenswerk mit einem Musikpreis der GEMA ausgezeichnet. Was aber ist sein Lebenswerk, sein mutiges Engagement in der Opposition der DDR bis 1976 oder seine verfehlten Rüpeleien in der Gegenwart? Ein solcher Preis ist fragwürdig, denn kein Lebenswerk ist konsistent, und die Bewertung abhängig von subjektiven Maßstäben. Meist wählen wir unsere Idole nach unseren Idealen, aber die können sich verändern, ebenso wie das Idol. Beethoven widmete seine 3. Sinfonie (Eroica) Napoleon, zog die Widmung aber zurück als dieser sich 1804 zum Kaiser krönen ließ. “Ist der auch nichts anderes, wie ein gewöhnlicher Mensch?” soll er wütend ausgerufen haben. Richtig! Was hatte Beethoven erwartet, einen Gott? “Hosianna” und “kreuzigt ihn” sind Affekte die durch unsere Projektionen verursacht und den Realitäten nie gerecht werden. 

Den Preis für sein Lebenswerk kann Wolf Biermann behalten. Er hat Millionen von Menschen in der DDR Mut gemacht. Er hat zahlreiche großartige Gedichte und Lieder verfasst, das behalte ich gerne in Erinnerung. Nun hat er sich selbst vom Sockel gestürzt und durch seinen Empathiemangel das Image beschädigt. Das hätte er vermeiden können, wenn er sich an die Worte seines Lehrmeisters Brecht erinnert hätte.

...\ Dabei wissen wir doch:\ Auch der Hass gegen die Niedrigkeit\ verzerrt die Züge.\ Auch der Zorn über das Unrecht\ Macht die Stimme heiser. Ach, wir\ Die wir den Boden bereiten wollten für die Freundlichkeit\ Konnten selber nicht freundlich sein.\ ...

An die Nachgeborenen

Er hätte auch von der Medizin nehmen können, die er selbst für andere entwickelt hat \ (1966 für seinen Freund Peter Huchel).

…\ Du, laß dich nicht verhärten\ in dieser harten Zeit.\ Die allzu hart sind, brechen,\ die allzu spitz sind, stechen\ und brechen ab sogleich.\ …

Die Ermutigung

PS: Fortsetzung folgt in der Reihe \ “Was wir von großen Persönlichkeiten lernen können, wenn wir ihnen zuhören würden."

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

The upcoming Bitcoin 2025 conference, scheduled from May 27–29 at the Venetian Conference Center in Las Vegas, is set to make history with an official attempt to break the GUINNESS WORLD RECORDS® title for the most Bitcoin point-of-sale transactions in an eight-hour period.

Organized by BTC Inc, the event will showcase Bitcoin’s evolution from a digital capital asset to a practical medium of exchange, leveraging the latest advancements in payment technology.

Tap-to-Pay with Lightning-Ready Bolt Cards

To facilitate this record-setting attempt, 4,000 Lightning-ready Bolt Cards will be distributed to conference attendees.

pic.twitter.com/Iy7P361u6u

— Uncle Rockstar Developer (@r0ckstardev) May 15, 2025

These NFC-enabled cards allow users to make instant, contactless Bitcoin payments at vendor booths throughout the expo-no apps or QR codes required, just a simple tap. 

The cards are available in four collectible designs, each featuring a prominent figure in Bitcoin’s history: Senator Cynthia Lummis, Michael Saylor, Satoshi Nakamoto, and Jack Dorsey. 

Each attendee will receive a randomly assigned card, making them both functional and collectible souvenirs.

Senator Lummis: A Playful Provocation

Notably, one of the card designs features Senator Cynthia Lummis with laser eyes-a playful nod to her reputation as a leading Bitcoin advocate in US politics. 

While Lummis is known for her legislative efforts to promote Bitcoin integration, she has publicly stated she prefers to “spend dollars and save Bitcoin,” viewing BTC as a long-term store of value rather than a daily currency. 

The choice to feature her on the Bolt Card, could be suggested by Rockstar Dev of the BTC Pay Server Foundation, perhaps a lighthearted way to highlight the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role in everyday payments.

Nothing cracks me up quite like a senator that wants the US to buy millions of Bitcoin use dollars to buy a beer at a Bitcoin bar.

This is how unserious some of you are. pic.twitter.com/jftIEggmip

— Magoo PhD (@HodlMagoo) April 4, 2025

How Bolt Cards and the Lightning Network Work

Bolt Cards are physical cards equipped with NFC (Near Field Communication) technology, similar to contactless credit or debit cards. When linked to a compatible Lightning wallet, they enable users to make Bitcoin payments over the Lightning Network by simply tapping the card at a point-of-sale terminal. 

The Lightning Network is a second-layer protocol built on top of Bitcoin, designed to facilitate instant, low-cost transactions ideal for everyday purchases. 

This integration aims to make Bitcoin as easy to use as traditional payment methods, eliminating the need for QR code scanning or mobile apps.

A Showcase for Bitcoin’s Real-World Usability

With over 30,000 attendees, 300 exhibitors, and 500 speakers expected, the Bitcoin 2025 conference is poised to be the largest Bitcoin event of the year-and potentially the most transactional. 

The event will feature on-site activations such as the Official Bitcoin Magazine Store, where all merchandise will be available at a 21% discount for those paying with Bitcoin via the Lightning Network-a nod to Bitcoin’s 21 million coin supply limit.

By deeply integrating Lightning payments into the conference experience, organizers hope to demonstrate Bitcoin’s readiness for mainstream commerce and set a new benchmark for its practical use as a currency.

Conclusion

The Guinness World Record attempt at Bitcoin 2025 is more than a publicity stunt-it’s a bold demonstration of Bitcoin’s technological maturity and its potential to function as a modern, everyday payment method.

Whether or not the record is set, the event will serve as a milestone in the ongoing journey to make Bitcoin a truly global, user-friendly currency

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Flash, an all-in-one Bitcoin payment platform, has announced the launch of Flash 2.0, the most intuitive and powerful Bitcoin payment solution to date.

With a completely redesigned interface, expanded e-commerce integrations, and a frictionless onboarding process, Flash 2.0 makes accepting Bitcoin easier than ever for businesses worldwide.

We did the unthinkable!

Website monetization used to be super complicated.

"Buy me a coffee" — But only if we both have a bank account.

WHAT IF WE DON'T?

Thanks to @paywflash and bitcoin, it's just 5 CLICKS – and no banks!

Start accepting donations on your website… pic.twitter.com/uwZUrvmEZ1

— Flash • The Bitcoin Payment Gateway (@paywflash) May 13, 2025

Accept Bitcoin in Three Minutes

Setting up Bitcoin payments has long been a challenge for merchants, requiring technical expertise, third-party processors, and lengthy verification procedures. Flash 2.0 eliminates these barriers, allowing any business to start accepting Bitcoin in just three minutes, with no technical set-up and full control over their funds.

The Bitcoin Payment Revolution

The world is witnessing a seismic shift in finance. Governments are backing Bitcoin funds, major companies are adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets, and political figures are embracing it as the future of money. Just as Stripe revolutionized internet payments, Flash is now doing the same for Bitcoin. Businesses that adapt today will gain a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving financial landscape.

With Bitcoin adoption accelerating, consumers are looking for places to spend it. Flash 2.0 ensures businesses of all sizes can seamlessly accept Bitcoin and position themselves at the forefront of this financial revolution.

All-in-One Monetization Platform

More than just a payment gateway, Flash 2.0 is a complete Bitcoin monetization suite, providing multiple ways for businesses to integrate Bitcoin into their operations. Merchants can accept payments online and in-store, content creators can monetize with donations and paywalls, and freelancers can send instant invoices via payment links.

For example, a jewelry designer selling products on WooCommerce can now integrate Flash for online payments, use Flash’s Point-of-Sale system at trade shows, enable Bitcoin donations for her digital artwork, and lock premium content behind Flash Paywalls. The possibilities are endless.

E-Commerce for Everyone

With built-in integrations for Shopify, WooCommerce, and soon Wix and OpenCart, Flash 2.0 enables Bitcoin payments on 95% of e-commerce stores worldwide. Businesses can now add Bitcoin as a payment option in just a few clicks—without needing developers or external payment processors.

And for those looking to start selling, Flash’s built-in e-commerce features allow users to create online stores, showcase products, and manage payments seamlessly.

No Middlemen, No Chargebacks, No Limits

Unlike traditional payment platforms, Flash does not hold or process funds. Businesses receive Bitcoin directly, instantly, and securely. There are no chargebacks, giving merchants full control over refunds and eliminating fraud. Flash also remains KYC-free, ensuring a seamless experience for businesses and customers alike.

A Completely Redesigned Experience

“The world is waking up to Bitcoin. Just like the internet revolutionized commerce, Bitcoin is reshaping finance. Businesses need solutions that are simple, efficient, and truly decentralized. Flash 2.0 is more than just a payment processor—it’s a gateway to the future of digital transactions, putting financial power back into the hands of businesses.”

— Pierre Corbin, CEO at Flash.

Flash 2.0 introduces a brand-new user interface, making it easier than ever to navigate, set up payments, and manage transactions. With an intuitive dashboard, streamlined checkout, and enhanced mobile compatibility, the platform is built for both new and experienced Bitcoin users.

About Flash

Flash is an all-in-one Bitcoin payment platform that empowers businesses, creators, and freelancers to accept, manage, and grow with Bitcoin. With a mission to make Bitcoin payments accessible to everyone, Flash eliminates complexity and gives users full control over their funds.

To learn more or get started, visit www.paywithflash.com.

Press Contact:

Julien Bouvier
Head of Marketing
+3360941039

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Bitcoin FilmFest (BFF25) returns to Warsaw for its third edition, blending independent cinema—from feature films and commercials to AI-driven experimental visuals—with education and entertainment.

Hundreds of attendees from around the world will gather for three days of screenings, discussions, workshops, and networking at the iconic Kinoteka Cinema (PKiN), the same venue that hosted the festival’s first two editions in March 2023 and April 2024.

This year’s festival, themed “Beyond the Frame,” introduces new dimensions to its program, including an extra day on May 22 to celebrate Bitcoin Pizza Day, the first real-world bitcoin transaction, with what promises to be one of Europe’s largest commemorations of this milestone.

BFF25 bridges independent film, culture, and technology, with a bold focus on decentralized storytelling and creative expression. As a community-driven cultural experience with a slightly rebellious spirit, Bitcoin FilmFest goes beyond movies, yet cinema remains at its heart.

Here’s a sneak peek at the lineup, specially curated for movie buffs:

Generative Cinema –  A special slot with exclusive shorts and a thematic debate on the intersection of AI and filmmaking. Featured titles include, for example: BREAK FREE, SATOSHI: THE CREATION OF BITCOIN, STRANGE CURRENCIES, and BITCOIN IS THE MYCELIUM OF MONEY,  exploring financial independence, traps of the fiat system, and a better future built on sound money.

Upcoming Productions Preview – A bit over an hour-long block of unreleased pilots and works-in-progress. Attendees will get exclusive first looks at projects like FINDING HOME (a travel-meets-personal-journey series), PARALLEL SPACES (a story about alternative communities), and THE LEGEND OF LANDI (a mysterious narrative).

Freedom-Focused Ads & Campaigns – Unique screenings of video commercials, animations, and visual projects, culminating in “The PoWies” (Proof of Work-ies)—the first ever awards show honoring the best Bitcoin-only awareness campaigns.

To get an idea of what might come up at the event, here, you can preview 6 selected ads combined into two 2 videos:

• Unique Bitcoin-Video Ads: Part One
• Unique Bitcoin-Video Ads: Part Two

Open Pitch Competition – A chance for filmmakers to present fresh ideas and unfinished projects to an audience of a dedicated jury, movie fans and potential collaborators. This competitive block isn’t just entertaining—it’s a real opportunity for creators to secure funding and partnerships.

Golden Rabbit Awards: A lively gala honoring films from the festival’s Official Selection, with awards in categories like Best Feature, Best Story, Best Short, and Audience Choice.

BFF25 Main Screenings

Sample titles from BFF25’s Official Selection:

REVOLUCIÓN BITCOIN – A documentary by Juan Pablo, making its first screening outside the Spanish-speaking world in Warsaw this May. Three years of important work, 80 powerful minutes to experience. The film explores Bitcoin’s impact across Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, El Salvador, and Spain through around 40 diverse perspectives. Screening in Spanish with English subtitles, followed by a Q&A with the director.

UNBANKABLE – Luke Willms’ directorial debut, drawing from his multicultural roots and his father’s pioneering HIV/AIDS research. An investigative documentary based on Luke’s journeys through seven African countries, diving into financial experiments and innovations—from mobile money and digital lending to Bitcoin—raising smart questions and offering potential lessons for the West. Its May appearance at BFF25 marks its largest European event to date, following festival screenings and nominations across multiple continents over the past year.

HOTEL BITCOIN – A Spanish comedy directed by Manuel Sanabria and Carlos “Pocho” Villaverde. Four friends, 4,000 bitcoins , and one laptop spark a chaotic adventure of parties, love, crime, and a dash of madness. Exploring sound money, value, and relationships through a twisting plot. The film premiered at the Tarazona and Moncayo Comedy Film Festival in August 2024. Its Warsaw screening at BFF25 (in Spanish with English subtitles) marks its first public showing outside the Spanish-speaking world.

Check out trailers for this year’s BFF25 and past editions on YouTube.

Tickets & Info:

• Detailed program and tickets are available at bitcoinfilmfest.com/bff25.
• Stay updated via the festival’s official channels (links provided on the website).
• Use ‘LN-NEWS’ to get 10% of tickets

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Starting January 1, 2026, the United Kingdom will impose some of the world’s most stringent reporting requirements on cryptocurrency firms.

All platforms operating in or serving UK customers-domestic and foreign alike-must collect and disclose extensive personal and transactional data for every user, including individuals, companies, trusts, and charities. 

This regulatory drive marks the UK’s formal adoption of the OECD’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), a global initiative designed to bring crypto oversight in line with traditional banking and to curb tax evasion in the rapidly expanding digital asset sector.

What Will Be Reported?

Crypto firms must gather and submit the following for each transaction:

• User’s full legal name, home address, and taxpayer identification number
• Detailed data on every trade or transfer: type of cryptocurrency, amount, and nature of the transaction
• Identifying information for corporate, trust, and charitable clients

The obligation extends to all digital asset activities, including crypto-to-crypto and crypto-to-fiat trades, and applies to both UK residents and non-residents using UK-based platforms. The first annual reports covering 2026 activity are due by May 31, 2027.

Enforcement and Penalties

Non-compliance will carry stiff financial penalties, with fines of up to £300 per user account for inaccurate or missing data-a potentially enormous liability for large exchanges. The UK government has urged crypto firms to begin collecting this information immediately to ensure operational readiness.

Regulatory Context and Market Impact

This move is part of a broader UK strategy to position itself as a global fintech hub while clamping down on fraud and illicit finance. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has championed these measures, stating, “Britain is open for business – but closed to fraud, abuse, and instability”. The regulatory expansion comes amid a surge in crypto adoption: the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority reported that 12% of UK adults owned crypto in 2024, up from just 4% in 2021.

Enormous Risks for Consumers: Lessons from the Coinbase Data Breach

While the new framework aims to enhance transparency and protect consumers, it also dramatically increases the volume of sensitive personal data held by crypto firms-raising the stakes for cybersecurity.

The risks are underscored by the recent high-profile breach at Coinbase, one of the world’s largest exchanges.

In May 2025, Coinbase disclosed that cybercriminals, aided by bribed offshore contractors, accessed and exfiltrated customer data including names, addresses, government IDs, and partial bank details. 

The attackers then used this information for sophisticated phishing campaigns, successfully deceiving some customers into surrendering account credentials and funds.

“While private encryption keys remained secure, sufficient customer information was exposed to enable sophisticated phishing attacks by criminals posing as Coinbase personnel.”

Coinbase now faces up to $400 million in compensation costs and has pledged to reimburse affected users, but the incident highlights the systemic vulnerability created when large troves of personal data are centralized-even if passwords and private keys are not directly compromised. The breach also triggered a notable drop in Coinbase’s share price and prompted a $20 million bounty for information leading to the attackers’ capture.

The Bottom Line

The UK’s forthcoming crypto reporting regime represents a landmark in financial regulation, promising greater transparency and tax compliance. However, as the Coinbase episode demonstrates, the aggregation of sensitive user data at scale poses a significant cybersecurity risk.

As regulators push for more oversight, the challenge will be ensuring that consumer protection does not become a double-edged sword-exposing users to new threats even as it seeks to shield them from old ones.

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

This article was originally published on aier.org

Even after eleven years experience, and a per Bitcoin price of nearly $20,000, the incredulous are still with us. I understand why. Bitcoin is not like other traditional financial assets.

Even describing it as an asset is misleading. It is not the same as a stock, as a payment system, or a money. It has features of all these but it is not identical to them.

What Bitcoin is depends on its use as a means of storing and porting value, which in turn rests of secure titles to ownership of a scarce good. Those without experience in the sector look at all of this and get frustrated that understanding why it is valuable is not so easy to grasp. 

In this article, I’m updating an analysis I wrote six years ago. It still holds up. For those who don’t want to slog through the entire article, my thesis is that Bitcoin’s value obtains from its underlying technology, which is an open-source ledger that keeps track of ownership rights and permits the transfer of these rights. Bitcoin managed to bundle its unit of account with a payment system that lives on the ledger. That’s its innovation and why it obtained a value and that value continues to rise. 

Consider the criticism offered by traditional gold advocates, who have, for decades, pushed the idea that sound money must be backed by something real, hard, and independently valuable. Bitcoin doesn’t qualify, right? Maybe it does. 

Bitcoin first emerged as a possible competitor to national, government-managed money in 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto’s white paper was released October 31, 2008. The structure and language of this paper sent the message: This currency is for computer technicians, not economists nor political pundits. The paper’s circulation was limited; novices who read it were mystified. 

But the lack of interest didn’t stop history from moving forward. Two months later, those who were paying attention saw the emergence of the “Genesis Block,” the first group of bitcoins generated through Nakamoto’s concept of a distributed ledger that lived on any computer node in the world that wanted to host it.

Here we are all these years later and a single bitcoin trades at $18,500. The currency is held and accepted by many thousands of institutions, both online and offline. Its payment system is very popular in poor countries without vast banking infrastructures but also in developed countries. And major institutions—including the Federal Reserve, the OECD, the World Bank, and major investment houses—are paying respectful attention and weaving blockchain technology into their operations.

Enthusiasts, who are found in every country, say that its exchange value will soar even more in the future because its supply is strictly limited and it provides a system vastly superior to government money. Bitcoin is transferred between individuals without a third party. It is relatively low-cost to exchange. It has a predictable supply. It is durable, fungible, and divisible: all crucial features of money. It creates a monetary system that doesn’t depend on trust and identity, much less on central banks and government. It is a new system for the digital age.

Hard lessons for hard money

To those educated in the “hard money” tradition, the whole idea has been a serious challenge. Speaking for myself, I had been reading about bitcoin for two years before I came anywhere close to understanding it. There was just something about the whole idea that bugged me. You can’t make money out of nothing, much less out of computer code. Why does it have value then? There must be something amiss. This is not how we expected money to be reformed.

There’s the problem: our expectations. We should have been paying closer attention to Ludwig von Mises’ theory of money’s origins—not to what we think he wrote, but to what he actually did write. 

In 1912, Mises released The Theory of Money and Credit. It was a huge hit in Europe when it came out in German, and it was translated into English. While covering every aspect of money, his core contribution was in tracing the value and price of money—and not just money itself—to its origins. That is, he explained how money gets its price in terms of the goods and services it obtains. He later called this process the “regression theorem,” and as it turns out, bitcoin satisfies the conditions of the theorem.

Mises’ teacher, Carl Menger, demonstrated that money itself originates from the market—not from the State and not from social contract. It emerges gradually as monetary entrepreneurs seek out an ideal form of commodity for indirect exchange. Instead of merely bartering with each other, people acquire a good not to consume, but to trade. That good becomes money, the most marketable commodity.

But Mises added that the value of money traces backward in time to its value as a bartered commodity. Mises said that this is the only way money can have value.

The theory of the value of money as such can trace back the objective exchange value of money only to that point where it ceases to be the value of money and becomes merely the value of a commodity…. If in this way we continually go farther and farther back we must eventually arrive at a point where we no longer find any component in the objective exchange value of money that arises from valuations based on the function of money as a common medium of exchange; where the value of money is nothing other than the value of an object that is useful in some other way than as money…. Before it was usual to acquire goods in the market, not for personal consumption, but simply in order to exchange them again for the goods that were really wanted, each individual commodity was only accredited with that value given by the subjective valuations based on its direct utility.

Mises’ explanation solved a major problem that had long mystified economists. It is a narrative of conjectural history, and yet it makes perfect sense. Would salt have become money had it otherwise been completely useless? Would beaver pelts have obtained monetary value had they not been useful for clothing? Would silver or gold have had money value if they had no value as commodities first? The answer in all cases of monetary history is clearly no. The initial value of money, before it becomes widely traded as money, originates in its direct utility. It’s an explanation that is demonstrated through historical reconstruction. That’s Mises’ regression theorem.

Bitcoin’s Use Value

At first glance, bitcoin would seem to be an exception. You can’t use a bitcoin for anything other than money. It can’t be worn as jewelry. You can’t make a machine out of it. You can’t eat it or even decorate with it. Its value is only realized as a unit that facilitates indirect exchange. And yet, bitcoin already is money. It’s used every day. You can see the exchanges in real time. It’s not a myth. It’s the real deal.

It might seem like we have to choose. Is Mises wrong? Maybe we have to toss out his whole theory. Or maybe his point was purely historical and doesn’t apply in the future of a digital age. Or maybe his regression theorem is proof that bitcoin is just an empty mania with no staying power, because it can’t be reduced to its value as a useful commodity.

And yet, you don’t have to resort to complicated monetary theory in order to understand the sense of alarm surrounding bitcoin. Many people, as I did, just have a feeling of uneasiness about a money that has no basis in anything physical. Sure, you can print out a bitcoin on a piece of paper, but having a paper with a QR code or a public key is not enough to relieve that sense of unease.

How can we resolve this problem? In my own mind, I toyed with the issue for more than a year. It puzzled me. I wondered if Mises’ insight applied only in a pre-digital age. I followed the speculations online that the value of bitcoin would be zero but for the national currencies into which it is converted. Perhaps the demand for bitcoin overcame the demands of Mises’ scenario because of a desperate need for something other than the dollar.

As time passed—and I read the work of Konrad Graf, Peter Surda, and Daniel Krawisz—finally the resolution came. Bitcoin is both a payment system and a money. The payment system is the source of value, while the accounting unit merely expresses that value in terms of price. The unity of money and payment is its most unusual feature, and the one that most commentators have had trouble wrapping their heads around.

We are all used to thinking of currency as separate from payment systems. This thinking is a reflection of the technological limitations of history. There is the dollar and there are credit cards. There is the euro and there is PayPal. There is the yen and there are wire services. In each case, money transfer relies on third-party service providers. In order to use them, you need to establish what is called a “trust relationship” with them, which is to say that the institution arranging the deal has to believe that you are going to pay.

This wedge between money and payment has always been with us, except for the case of physical proximity.

If I give you a dollar for your pizza slice, there is no third party. But payment systems, third parties, and trust relationships become necessary once you leave geographic proximity. That’s when companies like Visa and institutions like banks become indispensable. They are the application that makes the monetary software do what you want it to do.

The hitch is that

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Breez, a leader in Lightning Network infrastructure, and Spark, a bitcoin-native Layer 2 (L2) platform, today announced a groundbreaking collaboration to empower developers with tools to seamlessly integrate self-custodial bitcoin payments into everyday applications.

The partnership introduces a new implementation of the Breez SDK built on Spark’s bitcoin-native infrastructure, accelerating the evolution of bitcoin from “digital gold” to a global, permissionless currency.

The Breez SDK is expanding

We’re joining forces with @buildonspark to release a new nodeless implementation of the Breez SDK — giving developers the tools they need to bring Bitcoin payments to everyday apps.

→ https://t.co/iWjZhWRwsx

Bitcoin-Native
Powered by Spark’s…

— Breez (@Breez_Tech) May 22, 2025

A Bitcoin-Native Leap for Developers

The updated Breez SDK leverages Spark’s L2 architecture to deliver a frictionless, bitcoin-native experience for developers.

Key features include:

• Universal Compatibility: Bindings for all major programming languages and frameworks.
• LNURL & Lightning Address Support: Streamlined integration for peer-to-peer transactions.
• Real-Time Interaction: Instant mobile notifications for payment confirmations.
• No External Reliance: Built directly on bitcoin via Spark, eliminating bridges or third-party consensus.

This implementation unlocks use cases such as streaming content payments, social app monetization, in-game currencies, cross-border remittances, and AI micro-settlements—all powered by Bitcoin’s decentralized network.

Quotes from Leadership

Roy Sheinfeld, CEO of Breez:
“Developers are critical to bringing bitcoin into daily life. By building the Breez SDK on Spark’s revolutionary architecture, we’re giving builders a bitcoin-native toolkit to strengthen Lightning as the universal language of bitcoin payments.”

Kevin Hurley, Creator of Spark:
“This collaboration sets the standard for global peer-to-peer transactions. Fast, open, and embedded in everyday apps—this is bitcoin’s future. Together, we’re equipping developers to create next-generation payment experiences.”

David Marcus, Co-Founder and CEO of Lightspark:
“We’re thrilled to see developers harness Spark’s potential. This partnership marks an exciting milestone for the ecosystem.”

Collaboration Details
As part of the agreement, Breez will operate as a Spark Service Provider (SSP), joining Lightspark in facilitating payments and expanding Spark’s ecosystem. Technical specifications for the SDK will be released later this year, with the full implementation slated for launch in 2025.

About Breez
Breez pioneers Lightning Network solutions, enabling developers to embed self-custodial bitcoin payments into apps. Its SDK powers seamless, secure, and decentralized financial interactions.

About Spark
Spark is a bitcoin-native Layer 2 infrastructure designed for payments and settlement, allowing developers to build directly on Bitcoin’s base layer without compromises.

@ 1d7ff02a:d042b5be

ຄົນສ່ວນຫຼາຍມັກຈະມອງເຫັນ Bitcoin ເປັນສິນຊັບທີ່ມີຄວາມສ່ຽງສູງ ເນື່ອງຈາກມີອັດຕາການປ່ຽນແປງລາຄາທີ່ຮຸນແຮງແລະກວ້າງຂວາງໃນໄລຍະສັ້ນໆ. ແຕ່ຄວາມຈິງແລ້ວ ຄວາມຜັນຜວນຂອງ Bitcoin ແມ່ນຄຸນລັກສະນະພິເສດທີ່ສຳຄັນຂອງມັນ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຂໍ້ບົກພ່ອງ.

ລາຄາແມ່ນຫຍັງ?

ເພື່ອເຂົ້າໃຈເລື້ອງນີ້ດີຂຶ້ນ ເຮົາຕ້ອງເຂົ້າໃຈກ່ອນວ່າລາຄາໝາຍເຖິງຫຍັງ. ລາຄາແມ່ນການສະທ້ອນຄວາມຄິດເຫັນແລະການປະເມີນມູນຄ່າຂອງຜູ້ຊື້ແລະຜູ້ຂາຍໃນເວລາໃດໜຶ່ງ. ການຕັດສິນໃຈຊື້ຫຼືຂາຍໃນລາຄາໃດໜຶ່ງ ກໍແມ່ນການສື່ສານກັບຕະຫຼາດ ແລະກົນໄກຂອງຕະຫຼາດຈະຄ້ົນຫາແລະກໍານົດລາຄາທີ່ແທ້ຈິງຂອງສິນຊັບນັ້ນ.

ເປັນຫຍັງ Bitcoin ຈຶ່ງຜັນຜວນ?

Bitcoin ຖືກສ້າງຂຶ້ນບົນພື້ນຖານອິນເຕີເນັດ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການສື່ສານຄວາມຄິດເຫັນຂອງຜູ້ຄົນສາມາດເຮັດໄດ້ຢ່າງໄວວາ. ຍິ່ງໄປກວ່ານັ້ນ Bitcoin ມີລັກສະນະກະຈາຍສູນ (decentralized) ແລະບໍ່ມີຜູ້ຄວບຄຸມສູນກາງ ຈຶ່ງເຮັດໃຫ້ຄົນສາມາດຕັດສິນໃຈຊື້ຂາຍໄດ້ຢ່າງໄວວາ.

ສິ່ງນີ້ເຮັດໃຫ້ລາຄາຂອງ Bitcoin ສາມາດສະທ້ອນຄວາມຄິດເຫັນຂອງຄົນໄດ້ແບບເວລາຈິງ (real-time). ແລະເນື່ອງຈາກມະນຸດເຮົາມີຄວາມຄິດທີ່ບໍ່ແນ່ນອນ ມີການປ່ຽນແປງ ລາຄາຂອງ Bitcoin ຈຶ່ງປ່ຽນແປງໄປຕາມຄວາມຄິດເຫັນລວມຂອງຜູ້ຄົນແບບທັນທີ.

ປັດໄຈທີ່ເພີ່ມຄວາມຜັນຜວນ:

ຂະໜາດຕະຫຼາດທີ່ຍັງນ້ອຍ: ເມື່ອປຽບທຽບກັບຕະຫຼາດການເງິນແບບດັ້ງເດີມ ຕະຫຼາດ Bitcoin ຍັງມີຂະໜາດນ້ອຍ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການຊື້ຂາຍຈຳນວນໃຫຍ່ສາມາດສົ່ງຜົນກະທົບຕໍ່ລາຄາໄດ້ຫຼາຍ.

ການຄ້າຂາຍຕະຫຼອດ 24/7: ບໍ່ເຫມືອນກັບຕະຫຼາດຫຼັກຊັບທີ່ມີເວລາເປີດປິດ Bitcoin ສາມາດຊື້ຂາຍໄດ້ຕະຫຼອດເວລາ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການປ່ຽນແປງລາຄາສາມາດເກີດຂຶ້ນໄດ້ທຸກເວລາ.

ການປຽບທຽບກັບສິນຊັບອື່ນ

ເມື່ອປຽບທຽບກັບສິນຊັບອື່ນທີ່ມີການຄວບຄຸມ ເຊັ່ນ ສະກຸນເງິນທ້ອງຖິ່ນຫຼືທອງຄຳ ທີ່ເບິ່ງຄືວ່າມີຄວາມຜັນຜວນໜ້ອຍກວ່າ Bitcoin ນັ້ນ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຫມາຍຄວາມວ່າພວກມັນບໍ່ມີຄວາມຜັນຜວນ. ແຕ່ເປັນເພາະມີການຄວບຄຸມຈາກອົງການສູນກາງ ເຮັດໃຫ້ການສື່ສານຄວາມຄິດເຫັນຂອງຄົນໄປຮອດຕະຫຼາດບໍ່ແບບເວລາຈິງ.

ດັ່ງນັ້ນ ສິ່ງທີ່ເຮົາເຫັນແມ່ນການຊັກຊ້າ (delay) ໃນການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນທີ່ແທ້ຈິງອອກມາເທົ່ານັ້ນ ບໍ່ແມ່ນຄວາມໝັ້ນຄົງຂອງມູນຄ່າ.

ກົນໄກການຄວບຄຸມແລະຜົນກະທົບ:

ສະກຸນເງິນ: ທະນາຄານກາງສາມາດພິມເງິນ ປັບອັດຕາດອກເບີ້ຍ ແລະແຊກແຊງຕະຫຼາດ ເຮັດໃຫ້ລາຄາບໍ່ສະທ້ອນມູນຄ່າທີ່ແທ້ຈິງໃນທັນທີ.

ຫຼັກຊັບ: ມີລະບຽບການຫຼາຍຢ່າງ ເຊັ່ນ ການຢຸດການຊື້ຂາຍເມື່ອລາຄາປ່ຽນແປງຫຼາຍເກີນໄປ (circuit breakers) ທີ່ຂັດຂວາງການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນທີ່ແທ້ຈິງ.

ທອງຄຳ: ຖຶງແມ່ນຈະເປັນສິນຊັບທີ່ບໍ່ມີການຄວບຄຸມ ແຕ່ຕະຫຼາດທອງຄຳມີຂະໜາດໃຫຍ່ກວ່າ Bitcoin ຫຼາຍ ແລະມີການຄ້າແບບດັ້ງເດີມທີ່ຊ້າກວ່າ.

ບົດສະຫຼຸບ

ການປຽບທຽບຄວາມຜັນຜວນລະຫວ່າງ Bitcoin ແລະສິນຊັບອື່ນໆ ໂດຍໃຊ້ໄລຍະເວລາສັ້ນນັ້ນ ບໍ່ມີຄວາມສົມເຫດສົມຜົນປານໃດ ເພາະວ່າປັດໄຈເລື້ອງການຊັກຊ້າໃນການສະແດງຄວາມຄິດເຫັນນີ້ແມ່ນສິ່ງສຳຄັນທີ່ສົ່ງຜົນຕໍ່ລາຄາທີ່ແທ້ຈິງ.

ສິ່ງທີ່ຄວນເຮັດແທ້ໆແມ່ນການນຳເອົາກອບເວລາທີ່ກວ້າງຂວາງກວ່າມາວິເຄາະ ເຊັ່ນ ເປັນປີຫຼືຫຼາຍປີ ແລ້ວຈຶ່ງປຽບທຽບ. ດ້ວຍວິທີນີ້ ເຮົາຈຶ່ງຈະເຫັນປະສິດທິຜົນແລະການດຳເນີນງານທີ່ແທ້ຈິງຂອງ Bitcoin ໄດ້ຢ່າງຈະແຈ້ງ

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

KYC database of Coinbase, the largest U.S. digital asset exchange, has been breached and up to 1% of monthly active users, or around 100,000 customers, have had their personal info stolen.

Hackers reportedly bribed overseas customer support agents and contractors to leak internal company info and user data. They then demanded $20 million and threatened to release the stolen data if Coinbase didn’t pay.

Instead of paying the ransom, Coinbase said no and is setting up a $20 million reward fund for anyone who can help catch the hackers.

“They then tried to extort Coinbase for $20 million to cover this up. We said no,” the company said in a blog post. “Instead of paying the $20 million ransom, we’re establishing a $20 million reward fund.”

So what’s been stolen? The breach, which was first disclosed in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), did not involve any theft of customer funds, login credentials, private keys or wallets.

But the hackers did get:

• Full names
• Addresses
• Phone numbers
• Email addresses
• Last 4 digits of Social Security numbers
• Bank account numbers and some bank identifiers
• Government ID images (driver’s licenses, passports, etc.)
• Account balances and transaction history
• Internal corporate documents and training materials

Coinbase says Prime accounts were not affected and no passwords or 2FA codes were stolen.

According to Coinbase, the attackers targeted outsourced support agents in countries like India. They were offering cash bribes in exchange for access to the company’s internal customer support tools.

“What these attackers were doing was finding Coinbase employees and contractors based in India who were associated with our business process outsourcing or support operations, that kind of thing, and bribing them in order to obtain customer data,” said Philip Martin, Coinbase’s Chief Security Officer.

Coinbase said it first saw suspicious activity in January 2025 but didn’t get a direct email from the threat actors until May 11. The email had evidence of stolen data and the ransom demand.

Coinbase quickly launched an investigation, fired all the involved support agents and notified law enforcement. It also started notifying users via email on May 15.

The Coinbase data breach has hit it hard, financially and publicly. The company estimates it will spend $180-$400 million on security upgrades, reimbursements and other remediation.

Coinbase’s stock also took a hit, dropping 6.4% after the news broke, before rebounding.

Analysts say this couldn’t have come at a worse time, as Coinbase is about to be added to the S&P 500 index – a big deal for any publicly traded company.

It’s definitely an unfortunate timing. “This may push the industry to adopt stricter employee vetting and introduce some reputational risks,” said Bo Pei, analyst at U.S. Tiger Securities.

Coinbase will reimburse any customers who were tricked into sending their digital assets to the attackers as part of social engineering scams. They’ve also introduced new security measures:

• Extra ID verification for high-risk withdrawals
• Scam-awareness prompts
• A new U.S.-based support center
• Stronger insider threat monitoring
• Simulation testing for internal systems

Affected customers have already been notified and the exchange is working with U.S. and international law enforcement to track down the attackers.

This is part of a larger trend in the digital assets world. Earlier this year, Bybit, another exchange, was hit with a $1.5 billion theft, dubbed the biggest digital asset heist in history.

Research from Chainalysis shows over $2.2 billion was stolen from digital asset platforms in 2024 alone.

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Asia has emerged as a powerhouse for bitcoin adoption, with diverse countries across the region embracing the world’s leading digital currency in unique ways.

From institutional investors in Singapore to grassroots movements in Indonesia, the Asian bitcoin ecosystem presents a fascinating tapestry of innovation, regulation, and community-driven initiatives.

We dive deep into the current state of bitcoin adoption across key Asian markets, providing investors with actionable insights into this dynamic region.

The Numbers: Asia’s Bitcoin Dominance

As of early 2025, over 500 million people worldwide hold some form of digital currency, with bitcoin remaining the most widely adopted digital asset. Asia stands at the forefront of this adoption wave, with the Central & Southern Asia and Oceania (CSAO) region leading the world in digital currency adoption according to Chainalysis’s 2024 Global Crypto Adoption Index.

The statistics paint a compelling picture:

• Seven of the top 20 countries in global crypto adoption are located in the CSAO region.
• India and China together comprise almost half of the world’s digital currency user base.
• Japan’s digital currency market is expected to reach 19.43 million users by the end of 2025, with a penetration rate of 15.93%.

Behind these impressive numbers lies a complex ecosystem shaped by diverse factors including regulatory environments, technological infrastructure, economic necessities, and vibrant community initiatives.

Photo Source: Chainalysis

Country-by-Country Analysis

India: The Grassroots Powerhouse

India ranks first in Chainalysis’s Global Crypto Adoption Index, with bitcoin adoption thriving particularly in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. This grassroots movement is driven primarily by:

• Financial inclusion: Bitcoin offers banking-like services to India’s large unbanked population.
• Remittance solutions: Lower fees for the significant Indian diaspora sending money home.
• Mobile wallet proliferation: India’s high smartphone penetration enables easy access to bitcoin services.

Japan: The Regulatory Pioneer

Japan has long played a significant role in bitcoin’s evolution, from hosting some of the earliest exchanges to pioneering regulatory clarity. In 2025, Japan finds itself at a fascinating crossroads:

• The Japan Financial Services Agency is considering reclassifying digital currency assets as financial products akin to stocks, potentially enhancing user protection.
• Major corporations like Metaplanet Inc. are expanding their bitcoin holdings, with plans to increase holdings by 470% to reach 10,000 BTC in 2025.
• The country boasts a thriving grassroots bitcoin community and a strong developer ecosystem.

Bitcoin adoption in Japan is uniquely balanced between institutional involvement and community enthusiasm, with initiatives like Blockstream’s Tokyo office working to promote layer-2 solutions, self-custody, and developer education.

Vietnam: The P2P Leader

Vietnam consistently ranks among the top countries for bitcoin adoption per capita. The country’s relationship with bitcoin is characterized by:

• Strong peer-to-peer (P2P) platform usage for daily transactions and remittances.
• High mobile wallet adoption driving grassroots usage.
• Bitcoin serving as a hedge against local currency fluctuations.
• Relatively favorable regulatory attitude compared to some neighboring countries.

Singapore: The Institutional Hub

Singapore has established itself as Asia’s premier institutional bitcoin destination through:

• Clear and forward-thinking regulatory frameworks, particularly the Payment Services Act.
• Growing presence of global digital currency firms including Gemini, OKX, and HashKey, which have received regulatory approvals.
• A robust financial infrastructure catering to high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors.

While Singapore’s consumer protection-focused framework restricts promotional activities and public advertising by digital currency service providers, the city-state remains a beacon for institutional bitcoin adoption in Asia.

South Korea: Retail Dominance Transitioning to Institutional

South Korea presents a fascinating case study of a market in transition:

• Retail investors currently dominate digital currency trading volume, while institutional participation significantly lags behind.
• Experts expect institutional involvement to increase, though a significant shift may not occur until around 2027.
• The local finance watchdog recently launched a crypto committee to assess permissions for corporate digital currency investors and ETFs.
• Users must access fiat-to-digital currency services through local exchanges with official banking partnerships, linking digital currency activities to legal identities.

Bitcoin Communities: The Grassroots Movements

What truly sets Asia apart in the global bitcoin landscape is the vibrant tapestry of community-driven initiatives across the region. These grassroots movements are instrumental in driving adoption from the ground up.

Bitcoin House Bali: A Community Hub

In Indonesia, the Bitcoin House Bali project exemplifies grassroots innovation. This initiative has transformed an old mining container into a vibrant hub for bitcoin education and community engagement.

Key features include:

• Free workshops (including “Bitcoin for Beginners” and “Bitcoin for Kids”).
• Developer programs including online classes, BitDevs Workshops, and Hackathons.
• A closed-loop economic system that turns bitcoin into community points.
• Merchant onboarding—from restaurants and drivers to scooter rentals and street vendors.

Bitcoin Seoul 2025: Bringing the Community Together

The upcoming Bitcoin Seoul 2025 conference (June 4-6, 2025) represents Asia’s largest bitcoin-focused gathering, bringing together global leaders, executives, and community members.

The event will feature:

• The Bitcoin Policy Summit: Seoul Edition, providing insights into regulatory trends.
• The Bitcoin Finance Forum, addressing institutional investment and treasury management.
• A Global Bitcoin Community Assembly for bitcoin grassroots and community leaders.
• Live Lightning Network payments demonstrations at the on-site Lightning Market.

This event underscores South Korea’s emerging role in the global Bitcoin ecosystem and highlights the growing institutional interest in the region.

Regulatory Landscapes: A Mixed Picture

The regulatory environment for bitcoin across Asia presents a complex and evolving picture that significantly impacts adoption patterns.

Japan’s Regulatory Evolution

Japan is considering tightening regulations on digital asset transactions by reclassifying them as financial products similar to stocks. If implemented, these changes would:

• Require issuers to disclose more detailed information on their corporate status.
• Potentially enhance user protection.
• Come into effect after June 2025, following policy direction outlines by the administration.

Current regulations in Japan are relatively digital currency-friendly, with bitcoin recognized as a legal form of payment under the Payment Services Act since 2016.

Singapore’s Balanced Approach

Singapore maintains a regulatory framework that emphasizes market stability and consumer protection, including:

• Restrictions on promoting digital services in public areas.
• The Payment Services Act that regulates digital currency exchanges.
• A general approach that supports institutional adoption while carefully managing retail exposure.

This balanced approach has helped establish Singapore as a trusted hub for bitcoin businesses and institutional investors.

South Korea’s Transitional Framework

South Korea’s regulatory landscape is in flux, with several developments impacting the bitcoin ecosystem:

• Corporate access to digital currenc

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Global fintech leader Revolut has announced a landmark partnership with Lightspark, a pioneer in blockchain infrastructure solutions, to integrate bitcoin’s Lightning Network into its platform.

This collaboration, now live for Revolut users in the UK and select European Economic Area (EEA) countries, marks a transformative leap toward frictionless, real-time transactions—eliminating delays and exorbitant fees traditionally associated with digital asset transfers.

Major update: @RevolutApp is now partnering with @lightspark pic.twitter.com/OUblgrj6Xr

— Lightspark (@lightspark) May 7, 2025

Breaking Barriers in Digital Currency Usability

By adopting Lightspark’s cutting-edge technology, Revolut empowers its 40+ million customers to execute bitcoin transactions instantly at a fraction of current costs.

This integration addresses longstanding pain points in digital currency adoption, positioning bitcoin as a practical tool for everyday payments. Users can now seamlessly send, receive, and store bitcoin with the same ease as traditional fiat currencies, backed by Revolut’s secure platform.

The partnership also advances Revolut’s integration into the open Money Grid, a decentralized network enabling universal interoperability between financial platforms.

This move aligns Revolut with forward-thinking fintechs adopting next-gen solutions like Lightning transactions and Universal Money Addresses (UMA), which simplify cross-border payments by replacing complex wallet codes with human-readable addresses (e.g., $john.smith).

Why This Matters

The collaboration challenges conventional payment rails, which often incur delays of days and high fees for cross-border transfers. By contrast, Lightning Network transactions settle in seconds for minimal cost, revolutionizing peer-to-peer payments, remittances, and merchant settlements. For Revolut users, this means:

• Instant transactions: Send bitcoin globally in under three seconds.
• Near-zero fees: Dramatically reduce costs compared to traditional crypto transfers.
• Enhanced utility: Use bitcoin for daily spending, not just as a speculative asset.

The Road Ahead

Revolut plans to expand Lightning Network access to additional markets in 2025, with ambitions to integrate UMA support for seamless fiat and digital currency interactions. Lightspark will continue optimizing its infrastructure to support Revolut’s scaling efforts, further bridging the gap between blockchain innovation and mainstream finance.

About Revolut
Revolut is a global financial app serving over 40 million customers worldwide. Offering services ranging from currency exchange and stock trading to digital assets and insurance, Revolut is committed to building a borderless financial ecosystem.

About Lightspark
Founded by former PayPal and Meta executives, Lightspark develops enterprise-grade solutions for the Lightning Network. Its technology stack empowers institutions to harness bitcoin’s speed and efficiency while maintaining regulatory compliance.

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

In the heart of East Africa, where M-Pesa reigns supreme and innovation pulses through bustling markets, a quiet revolution is brewing—one that could redefine how millions interact with money.

Enter Bitika, the Kenyan startup turning bitcoin’s complexity into a three-step dance, merging the lightning speed of sats with the trusted rhythm of mobile money.

At the helm is a founder whose “aha” moment came not in a boardroom, but at his kitchen table, watching his father grapple with the gap between understanding bitcoin and actually using it.

Bitika was born from that friction—a bridge between M-Pesa’s ubiquity and bitcoin’s borderless promise, wrapped in a name as playful as the Swahili slang that inspired it.

But this isn’t just a story about simplifying transactions. It’s about liquidity battles, regulatory tightropes, and a vision to turn Bitika into the invisible rails powering Africa’s Bitcoin future.

Building on Bitcoin

• Tell us a bit about yourself and how you got into bitcoin/fintech, and what keeps you passionate about this space?

I first came across bitcoin in 2020, but like many at that time, I didn’t fully grasp what it really was. It sounded too complicated, probably with the heavy terminologies. Over time, I kept digging deeper and became more curious.

I started digging into finance and how money works and realised this was what I needed to understand bitcoin’s objectives. I realized that bitcoin wasn’t just a new type of money—it was a breakthrough in how we think about freedom, ownership, and global finance.

What keeps me passionate is how bitcoin can empower people—especially in Africa—to take control of their wealth, without relying on unstable systems or middlemen.

• What pivotal moment or experience inspired you to create Bitika? Was there a specific gap in Kenya’s financial ecosystem that sparked the idea?

Yes, this idea was actually born right in my own home. I’ve always been an advocate for bitcoin, sharing it with friends, family, and even strangers. My dad and I had countless conversations about it. Eventually, he understood the concept. But when he asked, “How do I even buy bitcoin?” or “Can you just buy it for me?” and after taking him through binance—that hit me.

If someone I’d educated still found the buying process difficult, how many others were feeling the same way? That was the lightbulb moment. I saw a clear gap: the process of buying bitcoin was too technical for the average Kenyan. That’s the problem Bitika set out to solve.

• How did you identify the synergy between bitcoin and M-Pesa as a solution for accessibility?

M-Pesa is at the center of daily life in Kenya. Everyone uses it—from buying groceries to paying rent. Instead of forcing people to learn new tools, I decided to meet them where they already are. That synergy between M-Pesa and bitcoin felt natural. It’s about bridging what people already trust with something powerful and new.

• Share the story behind the name “Bitika” – does it hold a cultural or symbolic meaning?

Funny enough, Bitika isn’t a deeply planned name. It came while I was thinking about bitcoin and the type of transformation it brings to individuals. In Swahili, we often add “-ka” to words for flair—like “bambika” from “bamba.”

So, I just coined Bitika as a playful and catchy way to reflect something bitcoin-related, but also uniquely local. I stuck with it because thinking of an ideal brand name is the toughest challenge for me.

• Walk us through the user journey – how does buying bitcoin via M-Pesa in “3 simple steps” work under the hood?

It’s beautifully simple.

1. The user enters the amount they want to spend in KES—starting from as little as 50 KES (about $0.30).

2. They input their Lightning wallet address.

3. They enter their M-Pesa number, which triggers an STK push (payment prompt) on their phone. Once confirmed—pap!—they receive bitcoin almost instantly.

Under the hood, we fetch the live BTC price, validate wallet addresses, check available liquidity, process the mobile payment, and send sats via the Lightning Network—all streamlined into a smooth experience for the user.

• Who’s Bitika’s primary audience? Are you focusing on unbanked populations, tech enthusiasts, or both?

Both. Bitika is designed for everyday people—especially the unbanked and underbanked who are excluded from traditional finance. But we also attract bitcoiners who just want a faster, easier way to buy sats. What unites them is the desire for a seamless and low-barrier bitcoin experience.

Community and Overcoming Challenges

• What challenges has Bitika faced navigating Kenya’s bitcoin regulations, and how do you build trust with regulators?

Regulation is still evolving here. Parliament has drafted bills, but none have been passed into law yet. We’re currently in a revision phase where policymakers are trying to strike a balance between encouraging innovation and protecting the public.

We focus on transparency and open dialogue—we believe that building trust with regulators starts with showing how bitcoin can serve the public good.

• What was the toughest obstacle in building Bitika, and how did you overcome it?

Liquidity. Since we don’t have deep capital reserves, we often run into situations where we have to pause operations often to manually restock our bitcoin supply. It’s frustrating—for us and for users. We’re working on automating this process and securing funding to maintain consistent liquidity so users can access bitcoin at any time, without disruption.

This remains our most critical issue—and the primary reason we’re seeking support.

• Are you eyeing new African markets? What’s next for Bitika’s product?

Absolutely. The long-term vision is to expand Bitika into other African countries facing similar financial challenges. But first, we want to turn Bitika into a developer-first tool—infrastructure that others can build on. Imagine local apps, savings products, or financial tools built using Bitika’s simple bitcoin rails. That’s where we’re heading. 

• What would you tell other African entrepreneurs aiming to disrupt traditional finance?

Disrupting finance sounds exciting—but the reality is messy. People fear what they don’t understand. That’s why simplicity is everything. Build tools that hide the complexity, and focus on making the user’s life easier. Most importantly, stay rooted in local context—solve problems people actually face.

What’s Next?

• What’s your message to Kenyans hesitant to try bitcoin, and to enthusiasts watching Bitika?

To my fellow Kenyans: bitcoin isn’t just an investment—it’s a sovereign tool. It’s money you truly own. Start small, learn, and ask questions.

To the bitcoin community: Bitika is proof that bitcoin is working in Africa. Let’s keep pushing. Let’s build tools that matter.

• How can the bitcoin community, both locally and globally, support Bitika’s mission?

We’re currently fundraising on Geyser. Support—whether it’s financial, technical, or simply sharing our story—goes a long way. Every sat you contribute helps us stay live, grow our liquidity, and continue building a tool that brings bitcoin closer to the everyday person in Africa.

Support here: https://geyser.fund/project/bitika

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Custodial Lightning wallets allow users to transact without managing private keys or channel liquidity. The provider handles technical complexities, but this convenience comes with critical trade-offs:

• You don’t control your keys: The custodian holds your bitcoin.
• Centralized points of failure: Servers can be hacked or shut down.
• Surveillance risks: Providers track transaction metadata.

Key Risks of Custodial Lightning Wallets

*1. Hacks and Exit Scams*

Custodians centralize large amounts of bitcoin, attracting hackers:

• Nearly $2.2 billion worth of funds were stolen from hacks in 2024.
• Lightning custodians suffered breaches, losing user funds.

Unlike non-custodial wallets, victims have no recourse since they don’t hold keys.

*2. Censorship and Account Freezes*

Custodians comply with regulators, risking fund seizures:

• Strike (a custodial Lightning app) froze accounts of users in sanctioned regions.
• A U.K. court in 2020 ordered Bitfinex to freeze bitcoin worth $860,000 after the exchange and blockchain sleuthing firm Chainalysis traced the funds to a ransomware payment.

*3. Privacy Erosion*

Custodians log user activity, exposing sensitive data:

• Transaction amounts, receiver addresses, and IPs are recorded.

*4. Service Downtime*

Centralized infrastructure risks outages.

*5. Inflation of Lightning Network Centralization*

Custodians dominate liquidity, weakening network resilience:

• At the moment, 10% of the nodes on Lightning control 80% of the liquidity.
• This centralization contradicts bitcoin’s decentralized ethos.

How to Switch to Self-Custodial Lightning Wallets

Migrating from custodial services is straightforward:

*1. Choose a Non-Custodial Wallet*

Opt for wallets that let you control keys and channels:

• Flash: The self-custodial tool that lets you own your keys, control your coins, and transact instantly.
• Breez Wallet : Non-custodial, POS integrations.
• Core Lightning : Advanced, for self-hosted node operators.

*2. Transfer Funds Securely*

• Withdraw funds from your custodial wallet to a bitcoin on-chain address.
• Send bitcoin to your non-custodial Lightning wallet.

*3. Set Up Channel Backups*

Use tools like Static Channel Backups (SCB) to recover channels if needed.

*4. Best Practices*

• Enable Tor: Mask your IP (e.g., Breez’s built-in Tor support).
• Verify Receiving Addresses: Avoid phishing scams.
• Regularly Rebalance Channels: Use tools like Lightning Pool for liquidity.

Why Self-Custodial Lightning Matters

• Self-custody: Control your keys and funds.
• Censorship resistance: No third party can block transactions.
• Network health: Decentralized liquidity strengthens Lightning.

Self-custodial wallets now rival custodial ease.

Custodial Lightning wallets sacrifice security for convenience, putting users at risk of hacks, surveillance, and frozen funds. As bitcoin adoption grows, so does the urgency to embrace self-custodial solutions.

Take action today:

1. Withdraw custodial funds to a hardware wallet.
2. Migrate to a self-custodial Lightning wallet.
3. Educate others on the risks of custodial control.

The Lightning Network’s potential hinges on decentralization—don’t let custodians become its Achilles’ heel.

@ 5ea46480:450da5bd

Decentralization refers to control/power, and relates to censorship resistance. That is it, it is not more complicated then that. Resilience is a function of redundancy; a centralized censored system can have a redundant set-up and therefor be resilient.

Take Bitcoin; the blockchain is a central database, it is resilient because it has many redundant copies among a lot of different nodes. The message (txs and blocks) propagation is decentralized due to existence of a p2p network among these nodes, making the data distribution censorship resistant (hello op_return debate). But onchain transactions themselves are NOT p2p, they require a middlemen (a miner) because it is a central database, as opposed to something like lightning which is p2p. Peer to Peer says something about relative architectural hierarchical position/relation. P2P provides censorship resistance because it entails equal power relations, provided becoming a peer is permissionless. What makes onchain transactions censorship resistant is that mining is permissionless, and involves this open power struggle/game where competition results in a power distribution among players, meaning (hopefully) decentralization. The fact users rely on these middlemen is mitigated by this decentralization on the one hand, and temper-proofing via cryptographic signatures on the other, resulting in what we call trustlessness (or trust minimization for the autists in the room); we only rely on a miner to perform a job (including your tx into a block), but we don’t trust the miner to perform the job correctly, this we can verify ourselves.

This leads us to Nostr, because that last part is exactly what Nostr does as well. It uses cryptography to get tamper-proof messaging, which then allows you to use middle-men in a trust minimized way. The result is decentralization because in general terms, any middle man is as good as any other (same as with miners), and becoming such a middleman is permissionless(somewhat, mostly); which in turn leads to censorship resistance. It also allows for resilience because you are free to make things as redundant as you'd like.

Ergo, the crux is putting the cryptography central, making it the starting point of the system; decentralization then becomes an option due to trust minimization. The difference between Bitcoin an Nostr, is that Bitcoin maintains a global state/central ledger and needs this PoW/Nakamoto consensus fanfare; Nostr rests itself with local perspectives on 'the network'.

The problem with the Fediverse, is that it does not provide trust minimization in relation to the middlemen. Sure, there are a lot different servers, but you rely on a particular one (and the idea you could switch never really seemed to have materialized in a meaningful way). It also fails in permisionlessness because you rely on the association between servers, i.e. federation, to have meaningful access to the rest of the network. In other words, it is more a requirement of association than freedom of association; you have the freedom to be excommunicated.

The problem with ATproto is that is basically does not solve this dynamic; it only complicates it by pulling apart the components; identity and data, distribution and perspective are now separated, and supposedly you don’t rely on any particular one of these sub-component providers in the stack; but you do rely on all these different sub-component providers in the stack to play nice with each other. And this ‘playing nice’ is just the same old ‘requirement of association’ and ‘freedom of excommunication’ that looms at the horizon.

Yes, splitting up the responsibilities of identity, hosting and indexing is what is required to safe us from the platform hellscape which at this stage takes care of all three. But as it turns out, it was not a matter cutting those up into various (on paper) interchangeable middlemen. All that is required is putting cryptographic keys in the hands of the user; the tamperproofing takes care of the rest, simply by trust minimizing the middlemen we use. All the sudden it does not matter which middlemen we use, and no one is required to play nice; we lost the requirement of association, and gained freedom of association, which was the purpose of censorship resistance and therefor decentralization, to begin with.

@ a296b972:e5a7a2e8

„Aaaach, was für ein herrlicher Tag!“

In Berlin geht man hochmotiviert an die Arbeit, in der tiefen Überzeugung stets die richtigen Entscheidungen zu treffen, die Steuern der Einzahler ausschließlich für wohlüberlegte, notwendige Investitionen auszugeben und Entscheidungen zu treffen, die im dem Umfeld, in dem man sich bewegt, als höchst sinnvoll erachtet werden. Zustimmung von allen Seiten, dann muss es ja richtig sein.

Man fährt im Dienstwagen ins Regierungsviertel, sieht die vielen geschäftigen Menschen, wie sie ebenfalls zur Arbeit eilen. Man freut sich darüber, dass alles so gut läuft, dank der überragenden Kompetenz, die man einbringen darf und die das alles ermöglicht.

In Gedanken klopft man sich auf die Schulter und sagt sich im Stillen: „Bist schon ein geiler Typ, der richtig was bewegen kann, bewegen kann.“

Man hat auch schon erkannt, dass die zunehmende Kriminalität, vorzugsweise mit einem unsachgemäß gebrauchten Messer, durch den schlechten Einfluss der sozialen Medien entstanden ist und schon entsprechende Maßnahmen auf den Weg gebracht, um das durch geleitete Meinungsäußerungen, selbstverständlich zum Wohle aller, zu unterbinden. Man ist ja nicht umsonst in diese verantwortungsvolle Position gelangt. „Endlich am Ziel!“

„Messerattacken sind unschön, unschön, aber man muss auch berücksichtigen, dass viele der Attentäter und Attentäterinnen in ihren Herkunftsländern Schlimmes erlebt haben und dadurch traumatisiert wurden. Den betroffenen Traumaopfern kann ja nichts Besseres passieren, als in eine deutsche Psychiatrie zu kommen, wo sie die allerbeste Therapie erfahren, um wieder glückliche Menschen der Gesellschaft zu werden.

** **

Und jeder, der nicht die große soziale Aufgabe erkennt, die wir uns gestellt haben und auch effizient umsetzen, muss es eben noch besser erklärt bekommen, erklärt bekommen. Daran müssen wir noch arbeiten. (Muss ich mir notieren, damit ich meinem Sekretär die Anweisung erteile, das in die Wege zu leiten). Und jeder, der sich dagegen sträubt, zeigt damit eindeutig, dass er zum rechten Rand gehört. Was denen nur einfällt? Da müssen klare Zeichen gesetzt werden, und das muss unter allen Umständen unterbunden werden, unterbunden werden.

** **

Sowas schadet der Demokratie, es delegitimiert sie“.

Zum Schutz der braven Bürger arbeitet man auch fleißig daran, Deutschland, in neuem Selbstbewusstsein, zur stärksten Kraft in Europa zu machen. Mit der Stationierung von deutschen Soldaten an der Ostfront, pardon, an der Ostflanke, zeigt man dem bösen, aggressiven Russen schon mal, was eine Harke ist. „Und das ist ja erst der Anfang, der Anfang. Warte nur ab!“

„Was noch? Ach ja, die Wirtschaft. Solange die nicht auf die Barrikaden geht, das sehe ich derzeit nicht, scheint es ja noch keinen akuten Handlungsbedarf zu geben. Darum kümmern wir uns später. Immerhin halten sich die Wirtschaftsprognosen in einem akzeptablen Rahmen und die Priorität (die kann auch nicht jeder richtig setzen) der Investitionen muss derzeit auf dem wichtigsten Bereich, der Aufrüstung liegen, Aufrüstung liegen. Schließlich werden wir bald angegriffen.

** **

Ich darf nicht vergessen, meinen Sekretär zu beauftragen, meine Bestellung im Feinkostladen abholen zu lassen, sonst gibt’s Zuhause Ärger. Ach ja, und die Anzüge und die Wäsche muss auch noch aus der Reinigung abgeholt werden. Darf ich nicht vergessen, nicht vergessen.

** **

Wie viele Reinigungen gäbe es nicht, wenn wir Politiker nicht wären, nicht wären. Viele sichere Arbeitsplätze, gut so!

** **

Was, schon da? Das ging aber heute schnell. Kein Stau. Ja, der Chauffeur ist schon ein Guter, der weiß, wo man lang muss, um Baustellen zu umfahren. Allerdings muss ich ihm bei nächster Gelegenheit noch einmal deutlich sagen, dass er bitte die Sitzheizung früher anzuschalten hat, anzuschalten hat! Dass der sich das immer noch nicht gemerkt hat, unmöglich!“

Wen wundert es, wenn in dieser Wonnewelt der Selbstüberschätzung von Unsererdemokratie gesprochen wird, so entrückt vom Alltag, in einem Raumschiff, dass völlig losgelöst von der Realität über allem schwebt.

„Ich müsste ja verrückt sein, wenn ich an diesen Zuständen etwas ändern wollte. Warum auch, es läuft doch und mir geht es doch gut. Ich habe ein gutes Einkommen, kann mir allerhand leisten, Haus ist bezahlt, Frau ist gut untergebracht, Kinder sind versorgt, wie die Zeit vergeht. Und wenn ich mal ausscheide, erhalte ich weiter meine Bezüge und muss nicht an mein Vermögen ran, man will ja auch den Kindern was hinterlassen. Schadet ja nicht, wenn ich mich etwas einschränke, und der eine oder andere Job wird schon an mich herangetragen werden, schließlich habe ich ja erstklassige Kontakte, die dem einen oder anderen sicher etwas wert sein werden.

** **

Na, dann woll’n wir mal wieder, woll’n wir mal wieder!“

Dieser Artikel wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben

* *

(Bild von pixabay)

@ 0e9491aa:ef2adadf

Humanity's Natural State Is Chaos
Without order there is chaos. Humans competing with each other for scarce resources naturally leads to conflict until one group achieves significant power and instates a "monopoly on violence."

Power Brings Stability
Power has always been the key means to achieve stability in societies. Centralized power can be incredibly effective in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, and social unrest efficiently. Unfortunately this power is often abused and corrupted.

Centralized Power Breeds Tyranny
Centralized power often leads to tyrannical rule. When a select few individuals hold control over a society, they tend to become corrupted. Centralized power structures often lack accountability and transparency, and rely too heavily on trust.

Distributed Power Cultivates Freedom
New technology that empowers individuals provide us the ability to rebuild societies from the bottom up. Strong individuals that can defend and provide for themselves will help build strong local communities on a similar foundation. The result is power being distributed throughout society rather than held by a select few.

In the short term, relying on trust and centralized power is an easy answer to mitigating chaos, but freedom tech tools provide us the ability to build on top of much stronger distributed foundations that provide stability while also cultivating individual freedom.

The solution starts with us. Empower yourself. Empower others. A grassroots freedom tech movement scaling one person at a time.

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

I've pulled together the most compelling forward-looking predictions from our recent podcast conversations. These insights highlight where our guests see opportunities and challenges in the Bitcoin ecosystem, energy markets, and beyond.

AI Agents Will Drive Bitcoin Adoption More Than Human Users by 2030 - Andrew Myers

Andrew Myers described how the artificial intelligence revolution will fundamentally transform Bitcoin usage patterns over the next few years. He highlighted Paul's tweet that suggested machine-to-machine transactions using Bitcoin will soon dominate the network.

"We talk about Bitcoin being used as a medium of exchange. We're going to find that the machines are doing most of that exchange at some point relatively soon," Andrew explained. "The agents using Bitcoin to complete tasks using something like L4 or two protocol is going to far surpass the amount of transactions that humans are doing to do things in their everyday lives."

Andrew believes AI agents will naturally gravitate toward Bitcoin because it's more energy-efficient from a computational perspective than traditional payment rails. As AI systems optimize for energy efficiency, Bitcoin's direct settlement mechanism becomes increasingly attractive compared to legacy financial infrastructure. This shift could accelerate Bitcoin adoption in ways we haven't fully anticipated, creating a new category of machine-driven demand.

CalPERS Funding Status Will Drop Below 70% by June 2025 - Dom Bei

Dom Bei, who's running for the Board of Trustees at CalPERS, made a concerning prediction about America's largest public pension fund. Currently sitting at approximately 75% funded, Dom warned the situation could deteriorate further after recent tariff-related markdowns.

"They say that the fund had a $26 billion markdown, which if my math is correct, would bring the fund closer towards the 70% funded number," Dom explained. He noted the fund needs to recover these losses before the June 30, 2025 reporting deadline, or face serious consequences.

If CalPERS funding status drops below 70%, Dom predicts a familiar pattern will unfold: municipalities and taxpayers will face higher contribution rates to cover the shortfall, diverting money from essential services like parks, schools, and public safety. This would likely trigger another round of pension reform debates targeting worker benefits, despite similar reforms in 2013 failing to address the fundamental performance issues plaguing the fund.

Energy Companies Will Incorporate Bitcoin Into Settlements Within 3 Years - Andrew Myers

Andrew Myers outlined a compelling vision for Bitcoin's integration into energy markets, predicting that by 2027 (block 1,050,000), we'll see widespread adoption of Bitcoin for energy transactions and settlements. He described his company's mission as enabling "every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000."

"Our mantra for Bitcoin is fast, accurate, transparent energy transactions," Andrew explained. He highlighted several inefficiencies in current energy markets that Bitcoin could solve, including: Information asymmetry between energy buyers and sellers. Slow 30-day billing cycles creating unnecessary credit risk
Capital locked up in prepayments, deposits, and collateral requirements.

Andrew revealed that his team has already prototyped a Bitcoin collateral product and that a major energy company in Texas is currently building similar functionality. He predicts these early implementations will demonstrate Bitcoin's potential to unlock billions in working capital across the energy sector through faster settlement and reduced collateral requirements.

Most significantly, Andrew mentioned early discussions with independent system operators about modifying power market protocols to incorporate Bitcoin as an alternative settlement mechanism alongside the US dollar.

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Blockspace conducts cutting-edge proprietary research for investors.

Bitcoin Miners Face Hard Choices as AI Data Centers Pick Prime Locations

Bitcoin miners hoping to cash in on the AI boom by selling their facilities to hyperscalers are finding fewer opportunities than expected. With mining economics dimming and specific buyer requirements limiting potential deals, the industry faces significant challenges.

Christian Lopez, Head of Blockchain and Digital Assets at Cohen and Company Capital Markets, notes a "glut of bitcoin mines" currently on the market. While miners control substantial power resources, hyperscalers typically demand facilities with at least 150-200 megawatts capacity within 100 miles of major cities—criteria most mining operations don't meet.

An estimated 1-1.5 gigawatts of mining capacity is available for acquisition, creating downward pressure on power prices. This oversupply stems from both deteriorating mining economics and overoptimistic AI-related expectations. The valuation gap remains a persistent obstacle: "Buyers face the critical 'buy versus build' question," Lopez explains. While buyers typically value sites at $300,000-$500,000 per megawatt plus a modest premium, sellers often seek $1.5-$2 million per megawatt based on public company valuations.

Adding to these challenges, retrofitting mining sites for high-performance computing often requires completely reconstructing the power infrastructure rather than leveraging existing setups. Despite current difficulties, industry sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with many experts predicting Bitcoin could reach $125,000-$200,000 by late 2025.

Link to Full Article

Subscribe to them here (seriously, you should): https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com/

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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

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@ 1b9fc4cd:1d6d4902

Music in media is like audio umami, the perfect seasoning in a recipe. It has the ability to enhance flavor and provide depth. Daniel Siegel Alonso examines how music is indispensable in enchanting consumers, from the memorable jingles of television commercials to the emotionally charged earworms in viral videos. Its influence is ubiquitous, transforming ordinary content into unforgettable experiences, evoking emotions, and molding cultural trends.

Television Commercials: The Jingle Jungle

Siegel Alonso begins by considering the television commercial. Music is the secret weapon in advertising and marketing, where attention spans can be shorter than the length of a cat video on TikTok. With its catchy melody and simple lyrics, the classic jingle is a masterclass in auditory branding. Do you remember 1971's "I'd Like to Buy the World a Coke"? That was more than just a tune; it was a cultural touchstone.

Today, in modern advertising, music's role transcends nostalgic jingles. Brands now curate full-fledged soundtracks to build an emotional narrative. Take Apple's commercials, for example. They often spotlight indie artists whose songs capture the essence of innovation and simplicity. These choices aren't random; they align with the brand's identity and leave a lasting impression.

Music Videos: The Visual Symphony

Music videos are the perfect union of audio and visual storytelling and have revolutionized how people consume music. These clips are not merely promotional tools but are art forms. At its peak, music videos were cultural events. Nobody took advantage of the medium better than Madonna. Think of her "Justify My Love" video—a short film that was so subversive that MTV banned it. (Ever the businesswoman, The Material Girl decided to make the controversial video available commercially as a video single, marking the first time a musician released a single in this format in the United States.)

Daniel Siegel Alonso fast forwards to the current age of social media, with channels like YouTube and TikTok breathing new life into the music video. Artists can now connect directly with their audience, bypassing cautious publicists and conservative record company executives. This democratization has led to a surge in creativity. Think about Childish Gambino's cinematic "This is America." The music video sparked widespread discussion and analysis with its in-your-face imagery and complex themes. It wasn't just a song but a statement.

Social Media: The Viral Soundtrack

Music is the magical ingredient in social media that can instantly catapult content into viral fame. Platforms like TikTok have turned short, catchy music clips into a global phenomenon. A 15-second snippet can lead to myriad dance challenges, lip-sync clips, and memes, propelling relatively obscure singers to stardom overnight.

Daniel Siegel Alonso uses Lil Nas X's "Old Town Road" as a key example. With its genre-blending sound, the song became a sensation largely thanks to TikTok. Users created countless videos featuring the song, and the track's infectious energy spread like wildfire. The result was a record-breaking run on the Billboard Hot 100—and a Grammy win!

Even Instagram's Stories and Reels leverage songs to enrich their user experience. Whether it's a tearjerker ballad emphasizing heartfelt memories or an aggressive track fueling a workout video, music layers in emotional content that words and images can't achieve.

The Emotional Manipulator

Music's influence in media lies in its power to manipulate emotions—the invisible puppeteer tugs at the heartstrings, stirring nostalgia, joy, sadness, or excitement. Filmmakers and content creators understand this well. Imagine watching a horror flick without a creepy soundtrack.

In television shows, music often acts as an additional character on screen. Netflix's "Stranger Things" and HBO's "Game of Thrones" have iconic soundtracks that are instantly recognizable and have even revitalized musicians' careers (think Kate Bush and her iconic song "Running Up That Hill"). These scores aren't just background fodder; they are crucial to storytelling by creating tension and enhancing dramatic moments.

Cultural Shaper

Beyond its emotional impact, music in media also serves as a cultural shaper. It impacts everything from fashion to language and even social movements. Consider MTV's influence and reach at its height in the 1980s and 1990s. The cable channel didn't just air music videos; it created superstars and defined an era, influencing everything from hairdos to political views.

While MTV may not be the behemoth it once was, social media platforms continue the tradition today. Viral music trends can spark global discussions. For instance, the Black Lives Matter movement saw numerous musicians penning powerful anthems that became rallying cries, shared widely on social media. In this context, music transcends entertainment; it's a vehicle for evolution.

Conclusion

In the grand tapestry of media, Daniel Siegel Alonso asserts that music is the thread that weaves everything together. It turns commercials into cultural icons, music videos into visual feasts, and social media content into viral sensations. Its power to elicit emotion, contribute to culture, and tell unique stories makes it an invaluable tool for creators.

If there are stories to tell and products to sell, music will remain at the heart of media, striking the right chords and leaving an unforgettable mark on our collective psyche. Ultimately, it's not just about the notes and melodies; it's about the feelings and memories they arouse, making music the unsung hero in the ever-changing media landscape.

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Marty's Bent

via Kevin McKernan

There's been a lot of discussion this week about Casey Means being nominated for Surgeon General of the United States and a broader overarching conversation about the effectiveness of MAHA since the inauguration and how effective it may or may not be moving forward. Many would say that President Trump won re-election due to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan deciding to reach across the aisle and join the Trump ticket, bringing with them the MAHA Moms, who are very focused on reorienting the healthcare system in the United States with a strong focus on the childhood vaccine schedule.

I'm not going to lie, this is something I'm passionate about as well, particularly after having many conversations over the years with doctors like Kevin McKernan, Dr. Jack Kruse, Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, Dr. Brooke Miller, Dr. Peter McCullough and others about the dangers of the COVID mRNA vaccines. As it stands today, I think this is the biggest elephant in the room in the world of healthcare. If you look at the data, particularly disability claims, life insurance claims, life expectancy, miscarriage rates, fertility issues and rates of turbo cancer around the world since the COVID vaccine was introduced in 2021, it seems pretty clear that there is harm being done to many of the people who have taken them.

The risk-reward ratio of the vaccines seems to be incredibly skewed towards risk over reward and children - who have proven to be least susceptible to COVID - are expected to get three COVID shots in the first year of their life if their parents follow the vaccine schedule. For some reason or another it seems that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has shied away from this topic after becoming the head of Health and Human Services within the Trump administration. This is after a multi-year campaign during which getting the vaccines removed from the market war a core part of his platform messaging.

I'm still holding out hope that sanity will prevail. The COVID mRNA vaccines will be taken off the market in a serious conversation about the crimes against humanity that unfolded during the COVID years will take place. However, we cannot depend on that outcome. We must build with the assumption in mind that that outcome may never materialize. This leads to identifying where the incentives within the system are misconstrued. One area where I think it's pretty safe to say that the incentives are misaligned is the fact that 95% of doctors work for and answer to a corporation driven by their bottom line. Instead of listening to their patients and truly caring about the outcome of each individual, doctors forced to think about the monetary outcome of the corporation they work for first.

The most pernicious way in which these misaligned incentives emerge is the way in which the hospital systems and physicians are monetarily incentivized by big pharma companies to push the COVID vaccine and other vaccines on their patients. It is important to acknowledge that we cannot be dependent on a system designed in this way to change from within. Instead, we must build a new incentive system and market structure. And obviously, if you're reading this newsletter, you know that I believe that bitcoin will play a pivotal role in realigning incentives across every industry. Healthcare just being one of them.

Bitcoiners have identified the need to become sovereign in our monetary matters, it probably makes sense to become sovereign when it comes to our healthcare as well. This means finding doctors who operate outside the corporate controlled system and are able to offer services that align incentives with the end patient. My family utilizes a combination of CrowdHealth and a private care physician to align incentives. We've even utilized a private care physician who allowed us to pay in Bitcoin for her services for a number of years. I think this is the model. Doctors accepting hard censorship resistant money for the healthcare and advice they provide. Instead of working for a corporation looking to push pharmaceutical products on their patients so they can bolster their bottom line, work directly with patients who will pay in bitcoin, which will appreciate in value over time.

I had a lengthy discussion with Dr. Jack Kruse on the podcast earlier today discussing these topic and more. It will be released on Thursday and I highly recommend you freaks check it out once it is published. Make sure you subscribe so you don't miss it.

How the "Exorbitant Privilege" of the Dollar is Undermining Our Manufacturing Base

In my conversation with Lyn Alden, we explored America's fundamental economic contradiction. As Lyn expertly explained, maintaining the dollar's reserve currency status while attempting to reshore manufacturing presents a near-impossible challenge - what economists call Triffin's Dilemma. The world's appetite for dollars gives Americans tremendous purchasing power but simultaneously hollows out our industrial base. The overvalued dollar makes our exports less competitive, especially for lower-margin manufacturing, while our imports remain artificially strong.

"Having the reserve currency does come with a bunch of benefits, historically called an exorbitant privilege, but then it has certain costs to maintain it." - Lyn Alden

This dilemma forces America to run persistent trade deficits, as this is how dollars flow to the world. For over four decades, these deficits have accumulated, creating massive economic imbalances that can't be quickly reversed. The Trump administration's attempts to address this through tariffs showcase how difficult rebalancing has become. As Lyn warned, even if we successfully pivot toward reshoring manufacturing, we'll face difficult trade-offs: potentially giving up some reserve currency benefits to rebuild our industrial foundation. This isn't just economic theory - it's the restructuring challenge that will define America's economic future.

Check out the full podcast here for more on China's manufacturing dominance, the role of Bitcoin in monetary transitions, and energy production as the foundation for future industrial power.

Headlines of the Day

Coinbase to replace Discover in S&P 500 on May 19 - via X

Mallers promises no rehypothecation in Strike Bitcoin loans - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Missouri passes HB 594, eliminates Bitcoin capital gains tax - via X

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The 2025 Bitcoin Policy Summit is set for June 25th—and it couldn’t come at a more important time. The Bitcoin industry is at a pivotal moment in Washington, with initiatives like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gaining rapid traction. Whether you’re a builder, advocate, academic, or policymaker—we want you at the table. Join us in DC to help define the future of freedom, money & innovation in the 21st century.

Sign Up

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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

The 100+ degree days have returned to Austin, TX. Not mad about it... yet.

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@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

Definition: when every single person in the chain responsible for shipping a product looks at objectively horrendous design decisions and goes: yup, this looks good to me, release this. Designers, developers, product managers, testers, quality assurance... everyone.

I nominate Peugeot as the first example in this category.

Continue reading at https://grumpy.website/1665

https://stacker.news/items/988044

@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

This talks highlights tools for product management, UX design, web development, and content creation to embed accessibility.

Organizations need scalability and consistency in their accessibility work, aligning people, policies, and processes to integrate it across roles. This session highlights tools for product management, UX design, web development, and content creation to embed accessibility. We will explore inclusive personas, design artifacts, design systems, and content strategies to support developers and creators, with real-world examples.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-M2cMLDU4u4

https://stacker.news/items/988041

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Marty's Bent

Last week we covered the bombshell developments in the Samourai Wallet case. For those who didn't read that, last Monday the world was made aware of the fact that the SDNY was explicitly told by FinCEN that the federal regulator did not believe that Samourai Wallet was a money services business six months before arresting the co-founders of Samourai Wallet for conspiracy to launder money and illegally operating a money services business. This was an obvious overstep by the SDNY that many believed would be quickly alleviated, especially considering the fact that the Trump administration via the Department of Justice has made it clear that they do not intend to rule via prosecution.

It seems that this is not the case as the SDNY responded to a letter sent from the defense to dismiss the case by stating that they fully plan to move forward. Stating that they only sought the recommendations of FinCEN employees and did not believe that those employees' comments were indicative of FinCEN's overall views on this particular case. It's a pretty egregious abuse of power by the SDNY. I'm not sure if the particular lawyers and judges within the Southern District of New York are very passionate about preventing the use of self-custody bitcoin and products that enable bitcoiners to transact privately, or if they're simply participating in a broader meta war with the Trump administration - who has made it clear to federal judges across the country that last Fall's election will have consequences, mainly that the Executive Branch will try to effectuate the policies that President Trump campaigned on by any legal means necessary - and Samouari Wallet is simply in the middle of that meta war.

However, one thing is pretty clear to me, this is an egregious overstep of power. The interpretation of that law, as has been laid out and confirmed by FinCEN over the last decade, is pretty clear; you cannot be a money services business if you do not control the funds that people are sending to each other, which is definitely the case with Samourai Wallet. People downloaded Samourai Wallet, spun up their own private-public key pairs and initiated transactions themselves. Samourai never custodied funds or initiated transactions on behalf of their users. This is very cut and dry. Straight to the point. It should be something that anyone with more than two brain cells is able to discern pretty quickly.

It is imperative that anybody in the industry who cares about being able to hold bitcoin in self-custody, to mine bitcoin, and to send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion makes some noise around this case. None of the current administration's attempts to foster innovation around bitcoin in the United States will matter if the wrong precedent is set in this case. If the SDNY is successful in prosecuting Samourai Wallet, it will mean that anybody holding Bitcoin in self-custody, running a bitcoin fold node or mining bitcoin will have to KYC all of their users and counterparts lest they be labeled a money services business that is breaking laws stemming from the Bank Secrecy Act. This will effectively make building a self-custody bitcoin wallet, running a node, or mining bitcoin in tillegal in the United States. The ability to comply with the rules that would be unleashed if this Samourai case goes the wrong way, are such that it will effectively destroy the industry overnight.

It is yet to be seen whether or not the Department of Justice will step in to publicly flog the SDNY and force them to stop pursuing this case. This is the only likely way that the case will go away at this point, so it is very important that bitcoiners who care about being able to self-custody bitcoin, mine bitcoin, or send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion in the United States make it clear to the current administration and any local politicians that this is an issue that you care deeply about. If we are too complacent, there is a chance that the SDNY could completely annihilate the bitcoin industry in America despite of all of the positive momentum we're seeing from all angles at the moment.

Make some noise!

Bitcoin Adoption by Power Companies: The Next Frontier

In my recent conversation with Andrew Myers from Satoshi Energy, he shared their ambitious mission to "enable every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000" – roughly three years from now. This strategic imperative isn't just about creating new Bitcoin users; it's about sovereignty. Andrew emphasized that getting Bitcoin into the hands of energy companies who value self-sovereignty creates a more balanced future economic landscape. The excitement was palpable as he described how several energy companies are already moving beyond simply selling power to Bitcoin miners and are beginning to invest in mining operations themselves.

"You have global commodity companies being like, 'Oh, this is another commodity – we want to invest in this, we want to own this,'" - Andrew Myers

Perhaps most fascinating was Andrew's revelation about major energy companies in Texas developing Bitcoin collateral products for power contracts – a practical application that could revolutionize how energy transactions are settled. As energy companies continue embracing Bitcoin for both operations and collateral, we're witnessing the early stages of a profound shift in how critical infrastructure interfaces with sound money. The implications for both sectors could be transformative.

Check out the full podcast here for more on remote viewing, Nikola Tesla's predictions, and the convergence of Bitcoin and AI technology. We cover everything from humanoid robots to the energy demands of next-generation computing.

Headlines of the Day

Steak n Shake to Accept Bitcoin at All Locations May 16 - via X

Facebook Plans Crypto Wallets for 3B Users, Bitcoin Impact Looms - via X

Trump Urges Americans to Buy Stocks for Economic Boom - via X

UK Drops Tariffs, U.S. Farmers Set to Reap Major Benefits - via X

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Looking for the perfect video to push the smartest person you know from zero to one on bitcoin? Bitcoin, Not Crypto is a three-part master class from Parker Lewis and Dhruv Bansal that cuts through the noise—covering why 21 million was the key technical simplification that made bitcoin possible, why blockchains don’t create decentralization, and why everything else will be built on bitcoin.

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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

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Final thought...

Happy belated Mother's Day to all the moms out there.

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@ 348e7eb2:3b0b9790

Nostr-Konto erstellen - funktioniert mit Hex

Nostr-Konto erstellen

Was der Button macht

Der folgende Code fügt einen Button hinzu, der per Klick einen Nostr-Anmeldedialog öffnet. Alle Schritte sind im Code selbst ausführlich kommentiert.

```html

Nostr-Konto erstellen

```

Erläuterungen:

• Dynamisches Nachladen: Das Script modal.js wird nur bei Klick nachgeladen, um Fehlermeldungen beim Initial-Load zu vermeiden.

• Parameter im Überblick:

• baseUrl: Quelle für API und Assets.

• an: App-Name für den Modal-Header.
• aa: Farbakzent (Foerbico-Farbe als Hex).
• al: Sprache des Interfaces.
• am: Licht- oder Dunkelmodus.
• afb/asb: Bunker-Modi für erhöhten Datenschutz.
• aan/aac: Steuerung der Rückgabe privater Schlüssel.
• arr/awr: Primal Relay als Lese- und Schreib-Relay.

• Callbacks:

• onComplete: Schließt das Modal, zeigt eine Bestätigung und bietet die Weiterleitung zu Primal an.

• onCancel: Schließt das Modal und protokolliert den Abbruch.

Damit ist der gesamte Code sichtbar, kommentiert und erklärt.

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Let's dive into the most interesting forward-looking predictions from my recent conversations with industry experts.

Court Cases Against Bitcoin Developers Will Set Critical Precedent for the Industry's Future - Zack Shapiro

The outcome of the Samurai Wallet case will determine whether software developers can be held legally responsible for how users employ their non-custodial Bitcoin tools. Zack Shapiro laid out the stakes clearly: "The precedent that the Bank Secrecy Act can be applied to just software that allows you to move your own money on the Bitcoin blockchain is incredibly dangerous for developers, for node runners, for miners... Basically everyone in the Bitcoin space is at risk here."

According to Shapiro, the government's position in this case fundamentally misunderstands Bitcoin's architecture: "The government says that the defendants transmitted, Keone and Bill transmitted money that they knew belonged to criminals. That's not how a coin join works. The people who transmitted the money are the people that used Whirlpool and the people that used Ricochet. They signed their keys."

Should this prosecution succeed in establishing precedent, Shapiro predicts catastrophic consequences: "If that becomes the law of the land... then basically no actor in the Bitcoin economy is safe. The government's theory is that if you facilitate movement of money, you're a money transmitter, that would reach node runners, wallet developers, miners, lightning routing nodes... whatever tool stack you use, the people who built that are at risk."

With the case continuing despite FinCEN's own position that Samurai's software isn't money transmission, Shapiro believes the resolution will likely come through political rather than legal channels in the next 6-12 months.

Malpractice Around COVID mRNA Vaccines Will Be Exposed Within 2 Years - Dr. Jack Kruse

Dr. Jack Kruse predicts that major revelations about mRNA vaccine damage will force an eventual removal from the market, particularly from childhood vaccination schedules. During our conversation, Dr. Kruse shared alarming statistics: "25,000 kids a month are getting popped with this vaccine. Just so you know, since Trump has been elected, three million doses have been given to children."

According to Dr. Kruse, the scale of this problem dwarfs other health concerns: "The messenger job can drop you like Damar Hamlin, can end your career like JJ Watt, can end your career like all the footballers who've dropped dead on a soccer field." What makes this particularly concerning is the suppression of evidence about the damages, with Dr. Kruse noting that data from Japan showing changes in cancer distribution patterns was pulled, and VAERS data being dismissed despite showing alarming signals.

Dr. Kruse believes the coming years will see an unavoidable reckoning: "If by the end of this year, everybody in unison realized that MRA platform is bad news and it's gone. That to me is... I would tell you the biggest win is to get rid of the MRA platform even before any of the Bitcoin stuff." This suggests he expects significant momentum toward removing these vaccines from circulation by the end of 2025.

Global Economic Reordering Will Create Demand for Neutral Reserve Assets Like Bitcoin and Gold - Lyn Alden

The next two years will be critical in determining whether the United States maintains dollar dominance while navigating Triffin's dilemma. During our conversation, Lyn highlighted how the current administration is attempting to thread a needle between reshoring manufacturing while maintaining the dollar's reserve status - an almost impossible task on extremely fragile ground.

"When they talk about kind of a currency accord to weaken the dollar, they mentioned ideally they wanted to use multi-lateral approaches, but there are some unilateral approaches that they can do, which includes printing dollars to buy reserve assets," Lyn explained when discussing Treasury advisor Stephen Myron's position paper.

As the world potentially moves to a multipolar currency system, Lyn predicts significant demand increases for neutral reserve assets. "The two options on the table at this point are gold and Bitcoin," she noted, but pointed out that "our geopolitical adversaries have been stacking gold for a while and with a special intensity for the last three years." This creates a strategic opportunity for the US, as Bitcoin is "overwhelmingly held in the United States."

Lyn believes this transition is already underway, with the demand for neutral reserve assets like Bitcoin growing as countries seek alternatives to solely dollar-denominated reserves.

---

Blockspace conducts cutting-edge proprietary research for investors.

Iran's Shadow Mining Economy: 2 GW of Bitcoin Mined Underground While Legal Operations Struggle

Iran hosts a thriving underground Bitcoin mining industry that has emerged as a critical financial lifeline for citizens grappling with international sanctions and domestic economic controls. This shadow economy dwarfs the legal sector, with an estimated 2 gigawatts of illegal mining operations compared to just 5 megawatts of sanctioned activity.

According to ViraMiner CEO Masih Alavi, approximately 800,000 illegal miners have been discovered and fined by authorities. Yet operations continue in homes, office buildings, and even jewelry stores, where Iranians tap into unmetered electricity to mine Bitcoin, later converting it to stablecoins like USDT for savings and commerce.

While the government has approved permits for about 400 megawatts of legal mining capacity, punitive electricity tariffs and regulatory barriers have strangled legitimate operations. "I blamed the government for this situation," says Alavi. "They introduced flawed policies in the beginning, especially by setting the wrong electricity tariffs for the mining industry."

Despite using obsolete equipment like Antminer S9s and M3s, underground miners remain profitable when converting earnings to Iranian rials, creating an ecosystem that serves an estimated 18 million Iranian cryptocurrency holders.

Looking ahead, Alavi predicts further crackdowns as Iran enters peak electricity demand season, potentially reducing legal mining to zero while underground operations continue to evolve sophisticated detection evasion techniques.

Link to Full Article

Subscribe to them here (seriously, you should): https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com/

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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

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@ 06830f6c:34da40c5

The evolution of development environments is incredibly rich and complex and reflects a continuous drive towards greater efficiency, consistency, isolation, and collaboration. It's a story of abstracting away complexity and standardizing workflows.

Phase 1: The Bare Metal & Manual Era (Early 1970s - Late 1990s)

1. Direct OS Interaction / Bare Metal Development:

   • Description: Developers worked directly on the operating system's command line or a basic text editor. Installation of compilers, interpreters, and libraries was a manual, often arcane process involving downloading archives, compiling from source, and setting environment variables. "Configuration drift" (differences between developer machines) was the norm.
   • Tools: Text editors (Vi, Emacs), command-line compilers (GCC), Makefiles.
   • Challenges: Extremely high setup time, dependency hell, "works on my machine" syndrome, difficult onboarding for new developers, lack of reproducibility. Version control was primitive (e.g., RCS, SCCS).

2. Integrated Development Environments (IDEs) - Initial Emergence:

   • Description: Early IDEs (like Turbo Pascal, Microsoft Visual Basic) began to integrate editors, compilers, debuggers, and sometimes GUI builders into a single application. This was a massive leap in developer convenience.
   • Tools: Turbo Pascal, Visual Basic, early Visual Studio versions.
   • Advancement: Improved developer productivity, streamlined common tasks. Still relied on local system dependencies.

Phase 2: Towards Dependency Management & Local Reproducibility (Late 1990s - Mid-2000s)

1. Basic Build Tools & Dependency Resolvers (Pre-Package Managers):

   • Description: As projects grew, manual dependency tracking became impossible. Tools like Ant (Java) and early versions of autoconf/make for C/C++ helped automate the compilation and linking process, managing some dependencies.
   • Tools: Apache Ant, GNU Autotools.
   • Advancement: Automated build processes, rudimentary dependency linking. Still not comprehensive environment management.

2. Language-Specific Package Managers:

   • Description: A significant leap was the emergence of language-specific package managers that could fetch, install, and manage libraries and frameworks declared in a project's manifest file. Examples include Maven (Java), npm (Node.js), pip (Python), RubyGems (Ruby), Composer (PHP).
   • Tools: Maven, npm, pip, RubyGems, Composer.
   • Advancement: Dramatically simplified dependency resolution, improved intra-project reproducibility.
   • Limitation: Managed language-level dependencies, but not system-level dependencies or the underlying OS environment. Conflicts between projects on the same machine (e.g., Project A needs Python 2.7, Project B needs Python 3.9) were common.

Phase 3: Environment Isolation & Portability (Mid-2000s - Early 2010s)

1. Virtual Machines (VMs) for Development:

   • Description: To address the "it works on my machine" problem stemming from OS-level and system-level differences, developers started using VMs. Tools like VMware Workstation, VirtualBox, and later Vagrant (which automated VM provisioning) allowed developers to encapsulate an entire OS and its dependencies for a project.
   • Tools: VMware, VirtualBox, Vagrant.
   • Advancement: Achieved strong isolation and environment reproducibility (a true "single environment" for a project).
   • Limitations: Resource-heavy (each VM consumed significant CPU, RAM, disk space), slow to provision and boot, difficult to share large VM images.

2. Early Automation & Provisioning Tools:

   • Description: Alongside VMs, configuration management tools started being used to automate environment setup within VMs or on servers. This helped define environments as code, making them more consistent.
   • Tools: Chef, Puppet, Ansible.
   • Advancement: Automated provisioning, leading to more consistent environments, often used in conjunction with VMs.

Phase 4: The Container Revolution & Orchestration (Early 2010s - Present)

1. Containerization (Docker):

   • Description: Docker popularized Linux Containers (LXC), offering a lightweight, portable, and efficient alternative to VMs. Containers package an application and all its dependencies into a self-contained unit that shares the host OS kernel. This drastically reduced resource overhead and startup times compared to VMs.
   • Tools: Docker.
   • Advancement: Unprecedented consistency from development to production (Dev/Prod Parity), rapid provisioning, highly efficient resource use. Became the de-facto standard for packaging applications.

2. Container Orchestration:

   • Description: As microservices and container adoption grew, managing hundreds or thousands of containers became a new challenge. Orchestration platforms automated the deployment, scaling, healing, and networking of containers across clusters of machines.
   • Tools: Kubernetes, Docker Swarm, Apache Mesos.
   • Advancement: Enabled scalable, resilient, and complex distributed systems development and deployment. The "environment" started encompassing the entire cluster.

Phase 5: Cloud-Native, Serverless & Intelligent Environments (Present - Future)

1. Cloud-Native Development:

   • Description: Leveraging cloud services (managed databases, message queues, serverless functions) directly within the development workflow. Developers focus on application logic, offloading infrastructure management to cloud providers. Containers become a key deployment unit in this paradigm.
   • Tools: AWS Lambda, Azure Functions, Google Cloud Run, cloud-managed databases.
   • Advancement: Reduced operational overhead, increased focus on business logic, highly scalable deployments.

2. Remote Development & Cloud-Based IDEs:

   • Description: The full development environment (editor, terminal, debugger, code) can now reside in the cloud, accessed via a thin client or web browser. This means developers can work from any device, anywhere, with powerful cloud resources backing their environment.
   • Tools: GitHub Codespaces, Gitpod, AWS Cloud9, VS Code Remote Development.
   • Advancement: Instant onboarding, consistent remote environments, access to high-spec machines regardless of local hardware, enhanced security.

3. Declarative & AI-Assisted Environments (The Near Future):

   • Description: Development environments will become even more declarative, where developers specify what they need, and AI/automation tools provision and maintain it. AI will proactively identify dependency issues, optimize resource usage, suggest code snippets, and perform automated testing within the environment.
   • Tools: Next-gen dev container specifications, AI agents integrated into IDEs and CI/CD pipelines.
   • Prediction: Near-zero environment setup time, self-healing environments, proactive problem identification, truly seamless collaboration.

---

web3 #computing #cloud #devstr

@ 90152b7f:04e57401

"Army study suggests U.S. force of 20,000"

The Washington Times - Friday, April 5, 2002

<https://www.ord.io/74523380>

The Bush administration says there are no active plans to put American peacekeepers between Palestinians and Israelis, but at least one internal military study says 20,000 well-armed troops would be needed.

The Army’s School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS), an elite training ground and think tank at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., produced the study last year. The 68-page paper tells how the major operation would be run the first year, with peacekeepers stationed in Gaza, Hebron, Jerusalem and Nablus.

One major goal would be to “neutralize leadership of Palestine dissenting factions [and] prevent inter-Palestinian violence.”

The military is known to update secret contingency plans in the event international peacekeepers are part of a comprehensive Middle East peace plan. The SAMS study, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, provides a glimpse of what those plans might entail.

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld repeatedly has said the administration has no plans to put American troops between the warring factions. But since the escalation of violence, more voices in the debate are beginning to suggest that some type of American-led peace enforcement team is needed.

Sen. Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania Republican, quoted U.S. special envoy Gen. Anthony Zinni as saying there is a plan, if needed, to put a limited number of American peacekeepers in the Israeli-occupied territories.

Asked on CBS whether he could envision American troops on the ground, Mr. Specter said Sunday: “If we were ever to stabilize the situation, and that was a critical factor, it’s something that I would be willing to consider.”

Added Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., Delaware Democrat and Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, “In that context, yes, and with European forces as well.”

The recent history of international peacekeeping has shown that it often takes American firepower and prestige for the operation to work. The United Nations made futile attempts to stop Serbian attacks on the Muslim population in Bosnia.

The U.S. entered the fray by bombing Serbian targets and bringing about a peace agreement that still is being backed up by American soldiers on the ground. U.S. combat troops are also in Kosovo, and they have a more limited role in Macedonia.

But James Phillips, a Middle East analyst at the Heritage Foundation, used the word “disaster” to describe the aftermath of putting an international force in the occupied territories.

“I think that would be a formula for sucking us into the violence,” he said. “United States troops would be a lightening rod for attacks by radical Islamics and other Palestinian extremist groups. The United States cannot afford to stretch its forces any thinner. They’re very busy as it is with the war against international terrorism.”

Mr. Phillips noted that two Norwegian observers in Hebron were killed this week. U.N. representatives on the Lebanon border have been unable to prevent terrorists from attacking Israel.

The SAMS paper tries to predict events in the first year of peacekeeping and the dangers U.S. troops would face.

It calls the Israeli armed forces a “500-pound gorilla in Israel. Well armed and trained. Operates in both Gaza [and the West Bank]. Known to disregard international law to accomplish mission. Very unlikely to fire on American forces.”

On the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, the Army study says, “Wildcard. Ruthless and cunning. Has capability to target U.S. forces and make it look like a Palestinian/Arab act.”

It described Palestinian youth as “loose cannons; under no control, sometimes violent.” The study was done by 60 officers dubbed the “Jedi Knights,” as all second-year SAMS students are called. The Times first reported on their work in September. Recent violence in the Middle East has raised questions about what type of force it would take to keep the peace.

In the past, SAMS has done studies for the Army chief of staff and the Joint Chiefs. SAMS personnel helped plan the allied ground attack that liberated Kuwait.

The Middle East study sets goals that a peace force should accomplish in the first 30 days. They include “create conditions for development of Palestinian State and security of [Israel],” ensure “equal distribution of contract value or equivalent aid” and “build lasting relationships based on new legal borders and not religious-territorial claims.”

The SAMS report does not specify a full order of battle for the 20,000 troops. An Army source who reviewed the paper said each of three brigades would require about 100 armored vehicles, 25 tanks and 12 self-propelled howitzers, along with attack helicopters and spy drones.

The Palestinians have supported calls for an international force, but Tel Aviv has opposed the idea.

<https://www.ord.io/74523380>

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2002/apr/5/20020405-041726-2086r/

@ 0c65eba8:4a08ef9a

Why This Matters and Why You're Worth It

You are not here by accident. You are here because a part of you knows you were meant for something more. Not just fleeting romance. Not just swipes, dates, and dead ends. But real, enduring marriages rooted in strength, beauty, reciprocity, and trust. One that leads to family, legacy, and love that doesn’t dissolve with time but deepens.

And yet, you’re being asked to do something that most women in history were never asked to do: choose your husband alone. That’s an incredible opportunity, but also a staggering risk. Choose well, and you build a joyful, secure life. Choose poorly, and the consequences can be devastating: emotional abuse, financial collapse, custody battles, long-term loneliness, or worse, a family without protection.

For centuries, women were guided. Communities, elders, and traditions helped narrow the field. Your tribe protected you. Your father filtered. Your aunties advised. They knew that mating is not merely emotional, it is economic, genetic, spiritual, and civilizational.

Today, most of those supports are gone. So now you must become the tribe. You must take responsibility for choosing wisely, and you must prepare yourself to be chosen by a man of wisdom, strength, and vision.

That’s why what follows is not emotional. It’s not romantic. It’s not easy. It is logical, operational, even harsh at times. Because lasting romance is earned by discipline. Because the real joy comes after the good decision is made. This document is your map, not to perfection, but to readiness.

This isn’t just about finding happiness. It’s about avoiding destruction. I’ve coached women for decades. I’ve seen the radiant peace of women who chose well, and the lifelong regret of those who didn’t. This isn’t theory. This is battlefield-tested. You may not like everything you read, but if you ignore it, you risk everything.

If you feel resistance, offense, or shame as you read, pause. That’s your signal. It’s not an attack. It’s a mirror. Let it reveal what still needs work. Avoid the temptation to point at men. This isn’t about men. This is about you. What you can control. What you can correct. What you can become.

Marriage is not a reward for love. It is a role. Wife. Mother. These are roles of the highest stakes, and therefore the highest standards. Standards you are capable of meeting.

This guide is written with love, not judgment. With concern, not control. It’s what every wise advisor, mentor, or coach who’s helped women into happy marriages would tell you. You’re not alone. But you are responsible.

Read with humility. Audit with courage. Plan with clarity. Change with resolve.

Natural Law Audit and Prescriptive Protocol for Female Readiness for Marriage-Intentional Courtship

Premise: From first principles of evolutionary necessity, behavioral causality, and the operational grammar of reciprocity, readiness for courtship with the intent of long-term pair bonding (marriage) is a function of a woman’s demonstrated ability to perform, signal, and sustain reciprocal value exchange over the duration of the male provisioning cycle. Courtship is a pre-contractual test of such capacity. This document synthesizes an evaluative and prescriptive audit for determining and restoring such readiness.

Meta-Readiness Considerations

I. Life Outcome Clarity and Expectation Calibration

Premise: A woman must understand what outcomes she genuinely seeks from life, maternal, relational, vocational, spiritual, or aesthetic, before selecting a mate. Courtship is a selection process for shared long-term production.

Natural Law Insight: Female wants are expansive and intertemporally unstable. Realism in selecting a partner requires narrowing aspirations to those outcomes reciprocally supportable by a male’s provisioning capacity. Misalignment between life design and mate capability produces disillusionment and conflict.

Recommendations:

1. Conduct a “Life Outcome Audit” to articulate non-negotiables vs. preferences.

2. Match aspirations (children, homemaking, lifestyle, location, work-life balance) to realistic provisioning tiers.

3. Recognize that hyperagency (excessive standards) without equivalent demonstrated value violates reciprocity.

4. Document target lifestyle and review against potential partner’s trajectory during vetting.

Conclusion: Selection must follow vision. A woman who does not know what she wants cannot choose a man who can build it with her.

II. Embedding in Normative Male-Led Communities

Premise: Participating in a structured, ethically-aligned male-led social network dramatically reduces pair-bonding risk and increases quality of mate options.

Natural Law Insight: Communities that enforce sexual modesty, honor reputation, and reward prosocial male leadership mirror Natural Law principles, even if expressed culturally or religiously. These environments serve as distributed vetting and enforcement systems.

Recommendations:

1. Seek participation in conservative religious congregations, traditional civic groups, or equivalent.

2. Avoid transient, libertine, or hyper-individualist networks that degrade accountability.

3. Use community gatekeepers as filters, eligible men will be known, observed, and reputation-bound.

4. Treat integration in such a network as a protective feature and quality signal, not a limitation.

Conclusion: Community is a vector of protection and opportunity. Women embedded in moral-order networks access both higher quality males and functional support for long-term bonding.

I. PHYSICAL FITNESS AND PRESENTATION

Functional Purpose: A woman’s physical presentation is not merely aesthetic, it is informational. It signals fertility, vitality, health, discipline, and self-respect. These traits are instinctively interpreted by men as indicators of long-term reproductive potential and cooperative stability. Sustained male interest begins with visible cues of youth and wellness, but is maintained by consistency in feminine self-maintenance. Being attractive is not about glamour; it is about broadcasting readiness for life partnership.

Operational Criteria:

• Body Composition: WHR 0.7 ± 0.05, BMI 18.5–24.9.

• Grooming: Routine hygiene, maintained hair, nails, skin.

• Attire: Modest-congruent, form-accentuating without provocation.

• Posture: Upright, balanced gait, open body language.

• Non-Verbal Signaling: Frequent smiling, consistent eye contact.

Disqualifiers:

• Obesity, slovenliness, odor, posture collapse, erratic non-verbal cues.

Disqualifier Correction Protocol:

• Minimum Standard: Restore BMI and WHR to target range, posture correction, grooming compliance.

• Action Steps:

• Daily calorie-controlled nutrition plan (90–120 days to compliance).

• 4x/week resistance/postural training.

• Monthly wardrobe and grooming audit.

• Mirror practice of expressiveness and gait.

Distinction: Short-term aesthetic changes do not replace sustained behavioral fitness.

II. PSYCHOLOGICAL MATURITY AND EMOTIONAL REGULATION

Functional Purpose: Emotional stability is not optional for pair bonding, it is foundational. A woman who cannot manage her internal state reliably becomes a source of constant stress for her partner, degrading his ability to provide, protect, and lead. Men bond most deeply with women who are consistent, safe, and affirming, not volatile or draining. Maturity means knowing how to pause, self-regulate, and respond thoughtfully rather than impulsively.

Operational Criteria:

• Self-awareness, stable mood regulation, behavioral consistency.

• Absence of excessive neuroticism, emotional impulsivity, passive aggression.

Disqualifiers:

• Excessive neuroticism, emotional impulsivity, public displays of instability, passive aggression.

Disqualifier Correction Protocol:

• Minimum Standard: Self-narrative coherence, routine maintenance, calm conflict responses.

• Action Steps:

• 30-day emotional trigger journaling.

• Daily stoic self-inquiry and reframing.

• 90-day blackout on reactive digital communication.

• Implement and maintain consistent wake/sleep rituals.

• Avoid all stimulants.

Distinction: Restraint under pressure must be structural, not performative.

III. COGNITIVE AND COMMUNICATION SKILLS

Functional Purpose: Communication is the method by which needs, boundaries, plans, and responsibilities are negotiated in a family. A woman must be able to communicate her emotional and logistical realities without blame, manipulation, or avoidance. Equally, she must interpret and respect male communication styles and incentives. High-agency men require cooperative, reasoned conversation, not passive-aggressive signaling or emotional coercion.

Operational Criteria:

• Rational dialogue, introspective clarity, emotional literacy.

• Absence of GSRRM (Gossip, Shaming, Ridicule, Rallying, Moralizing).

Disqualifiers:

• Use of GSRRM tactics (Gossip, Shaming, Ridicule, Rallying, Moralizing), evasion, blame-shifting.

Disqualifier Correction Protocol:

• Minimum Standard: Reasoned expression of internal states; dialectical discipline.

• Action Steps:

• Daily dialectic journaling (4-week review).

• Replace projection/blame with inquiry scripting.

• Weekly event narrative with personal responsibility.

• Quarterly communication training.

• Read Become Immune to Manipulation: How They Are Manipulating You (And How to Resist It) by Noah Revoy.

Distinction: Pleasantry and silence differ from communicative reciprocity.

IV. SOCIAL AND COOPERATIVE COMPETENCE

Functional Purpose: Marriage is not an isolated bond, it is embedded in a broader network of families, communities, and social systems. A woman must be able to adapt fluidly to cooperative roles, shifting from girlfriend to wife to mother without resisting the demands of each. Her ability to function harmoniously in social settings, defer to appropriate leadership, and support group cohesion is a strong indicator of her long-term fitness.

Operational Criteria:

• Conflict de-escalation, status modesty, role fluidity.

• Absence of contempt, manipulation, sabotage.

Disqualifiers:

• Misapplied contempt (directed at good-faith men or authority), sabotage of cooperative efforts, status-seeking via sexual leverage, or acts of public emasculation.

Disqualifier Correction Protocol:

• Minimum Standard: Predictable, low-disruption group participation.

• Action Steps:

• Weekly feedback log on public interactions.

• Acts of service in mixed-gender settings.

• Non-romantic emulation of maternal/wifely behaviors.

• Quarterly behavioral reviews with mentors or peers.

Distinction: Performative compliance without habituation is void.

V. DOMESTIC, ECONOMIC, AND LIFE-MANAGEMENT SKILLS

Functional Purpose: A stable household requires competence. Budgeting, scheduling, nutrition, and conflict resolution are not luxuries, they are the minimum viable functions of adult partnership. A woman who cannot manage herself will become a burden rather than a support. Readiness for marriage begins with self-sufficiency and extends into shared efficiency.

Operational Criteria:

• Budgeting, scheduling, self-care, dietary planning.

• Absence of chaos, compulsive consumption, disorganization.

Disqualifiers:

• Disorganized space, calendar chaos, debt, compulsive shopping, food delivery dependency.

Disqualifier Correction Protocol:

• Minimum Standard: Domestic order, fiscal responsibility, time-discipline.

• Action Steps:

• 30-day meal planning and budget logging.

• Daily scheduling log with deviation analysis.

• Audit digital purchases and reduce reliance on delivery.

• 14-day abstention from sugar, caffeine.

Distinction: Delegation without demonstrated competence is invalid.

VI. ATTITUDES AND WORLDVIEW ALIGNMENT

Functional Purpose: Every relationship is governed by implicit contracts. A woman’s worldview, what she believes about men, family, and authority, determines how she will perform in a marriage. If she views cooperation as oppression or expects benefits without contribution, she will destroy rather than build. Internal alignment with reciprocal duty and family structure is a non-negotiable foundation.

Operational Criteria:

• Anti-entitlement, feminine aspiration, hierarchical acceptance.

• Absence of adversarial ideology or egalitarian contractarianism.

Disqualifiers:

• Egalitarian contractarianism, careerism as identity, adversarial gender worldview.

Disqualifier Correction Protocol:

• Minimum Standard: Adoption of reciprocal family economy worldview.

• Action Steps:

• Weekly entitlement vs obligation journaling.

• Daily voluntary submission (non-critical contexts).

• Narrative scripting using duty-driven framing.

• Filter digital input to remove adversarial gender content.

Distinction: Ideological mimicry does not equal behavioral conversion.

VII. RISK PROFILE AND PAST BEHAVIOR

Functional Purpose: Past behavior is the strongest predictor of future conduct. A woman’s sexual, relational, and reputational history provides data on her loyalty, judgment, and risk to a man’s legacy. Men who are serious about marriage must screen for long-term predictability, not just short-term chemistry. Women who ignore their own histories are not protecting their futures.

Operational Criteria:

• Modest sexual history, loyalty trend, third-party validation.

• Absence of casual sex, serial monogamy, public instability.

Disqualifiers:

• History of casual sex, serial monogamy, divorce, paternity ambiguity, public drama.

Disqualifier Correction Protocol:

• Minimum Standard: Transparent discontinuity with past disqualifiers.

• Action Steps:

• Public accounting of relationship past with responsibility acceptance.

• Minimum 12-month monogamy/celibacy with logs.

• Elimination of overt sexual signaling across all platforms.

• Third-party testimonial verification.

Distinction: Claims of transformation without time-bound behavior are void.

Phased Rehabilitation Timeline for Readiness Restoration

Phase 1: Stabilization (Months 1–3)

• Priority: Risk profile correction, emotional regulation, lifestyle order.

• Focus: Sexual abstinence, emotional journaling, sleep/nutrition discipline.

Phase 2: Skill-Building (Months 4–6)

• Priority: Domestic, communicative, and cognitive skills.

• Focus: Meal budgeting, dialectical journaling, social role practice.

Phase 3: Social Re-Integration (Months 7–9)

• Priority: Cooperative group behavior and worldview realignment.

• Focus: Status modesty, deference rituals, ideological detox.

Phase 4: Courtship Re-Entry (Months 10–12)

• Priority: Testifiability under male scrutiny, courtship conduct.

• Focus: Third-party vetting system, courtship standards, mate discernment.

VIII. COURTSHIP ENTRY AND MALE VETTING PROTOCOL

Functional Purpose: The purpose of structured courtship and male vetting is to shift mate selection from emotionally reactive behavior to long-term rational strategy. Most modern women are tasked with a role their ancestors never bore alone: selecting a lifelong partner without the protective oversight of tribe, father, or community. This exposes them to profound risk, emotional, financial, sexual, and familial. Vetting is not a lack of faith in love, it is the discipline that makes real love sustainable.

By externalizing judgment to trusted men or professionals, a woman guards herself against the distortions of courtship neurochemistry (oxytocin, dopamine) and social pressure. More importantly, it signals to high-quality men that she values her future family enough to be discerning, and that she respects male judgment and leadership. Just as no wise man commits to a woman without proof of her virtue, no wise woman should commit to a man without proof of his character, stability, and alignment.

Vetting protects not only her body and emotions, but her legacy, and the children who will bear its consequences.

Operational Requirements:

• Demonstrated sobriety from hormonal and emotional bias.

• Third-party male oversight in mate evaluation.

Action Steps:

1. Triadic Vetting Structure: Enlist a minimum of two elder males (father, uncle, mentor) who:

2. Are happily married 10+ years.

3. Possess demonstrated judgment and ethical stability.

4. Have no romantic or competitive incentive to deceive.

5. Professional Support: If elder males are unavailable, retain a professional (licensed counselor, coach) with contractual duty of candor and no financial conflict of interest.

6. Vetting Sessions: All prospective partners undergo:

7. Disclosure-based interviews with vetting males.

8. Verification of sexual, financial, legal, and familial history.

9. Compatibility interrogation (religion, children, discipline, division of labor).

10. Hormonal Delay Protocol: Minimum 60-day abstention from physical intimacy until vetting phase is complete.

11. Documented Criteria: Maintain a checklist of reciprocal standards the male must meet (providing ability, decision-making, loyalty pattern, worldview alignment).

Rationale: Women under the influence of courtship neurochemicals (oxytocin, dopamine, serotonin) are neurologically biased toward over-valuation of male partners. This distortion is adaptive post-bonding but maladaptive pre-selection. Vetting externalizes judgment to disinterested, higher-agency observers.

Note for Both Sexes:

While this document serves women, the male counterpart should be studied concurrently. Understanding reciprocal obligations fosters selection integrity and eliminates false expectations. No woman should expect to secure a high-agency male without mirroring his investment in functional excellence, and vice versa.

Conclusion to Audit:

Readiness for marriage is a matter of demonstrated, reciprocal, operational fitness—not sentiment, rhetoric, or intention. This audit functions as both diagnostic and prescriptive framework. Each category of deficiency includes explicit steps for behavioral restitution. The phased timeline and courtship protocol ensure that no woman attempts entry into high-agency courtship without functional repair and reciprocal discernment. A woman prepared for marriage does not merely seek to be chosen; she earns rational preference by manifesting continuous, falsifiable, reciprocal value.

Final Word: You've Got This

You made it. That alone sets you apart. Most never read past the first page of what challenges them.

Now what?

If you identified areas where you fall short, good. That means the audit is working. Don’t stop there. Make a plan. Tackle one area at a time. Track progress. Be honest. Be relentless. And if you get stuck, ask. Ask someone older. Someone stable. Someone who has walked this path. Ask a happily married woman with children. Or invest in a professional who can guide you.

You were not meant to do this alone, but you are responsible for doing it honestly.

This path is hard. But so is being alone. So is pretending. So is chasing dreams built on fantasy instead of reality.

The woman who builds herself is the woman who builds a family. And the woman who builds a family, builds a civilization.

You’re not just choosing a man. You’re choosing a future.

Make it one worth living.

Common Objections, Honest Answers

“I don’t know any men worth putting that much effort in for.” That’s not because they don’t exist, it’s because the kind of man you’re looking for doesn’t advertise himself in chaos. High-value men are selective. They move in ordered circles, and they protect what they’ve built from anyone who might destabilize it. You won’t find them until you’ve become the kind of woman who belongs in that world.

“I don’t match several of these criteria and I still get plenty of attention from men.” There’s a difference between attention and intention. If you were attracting men who want to marry you, you’d be married. Being desired for casual access is not a sign of value, it’s often a sign of availability. Learn to tell the difference.

“Real men shouldn’t care about looks or checklists like this.” Real men care about what your appearance and habits say about your discipline, health, and self-respect. They’re not looking for shallow beauty, they’re looking for signs of stability and readiness. Being attractive is not about cosmetics. It’s about coherence. If you expect a man to invest everything in you, it’s fair that he checks the foundation.

“It’s judgmental, misogynistic, or unkind to talk about women like this.” Judging is what humans do. You’re judging this article right now. We all judge, because judgment is how we protect ourselves. Men who don’t know you can’t love you yet, they must judge first. Once they trust you, then love grows. This isn’t cruelty. It’s the path to safety.

“This is the most autistic, robotic thing I’ve ever read.” It might feel clinical. But the problems it addresses are deadly serious. Your feelings matter, but they won’t save your future. Logic is here to protect what feelings often ruin. There’s room for emotion, after the right foundation is laid.

“No man puts this much effort into judging women.” Some don’t. But you don’t want those men. Low-effort men are often desperate, flawed, or hiding their own disqualifiers. The kind of man who has the strength to say ‘no’ to a woman is the same man who can say ‘yes’ with purpose, and keep his promise.

“Shouldn’t love be unconditional?” Love isn’t based on your mood swings, but it is based on your virtue. We fall in love with the goodness in people, not just their personalities. Character inspires devotion. The stronger your character, the stronger and more lasting the love you will inspire.

“If I don’t want to change, shouldn’t someone love me as I am?” They might, but will they stay? You can love someone and still walk away if the cost is too high. Change isn’t about earning love, it’s about keeping it. Becoming better for yourself is the first act of love. Everything else flows from that.

“Why should I change just to get a man?” You shouldn’t. You should change to become your best self, healthier, stronger, more peaceful. That version of you will not only attract the right man, but she’ll enjoy her life more. Becoming marriageable is a side effect of becoming excellent. Do it for you. The right man will just be the reward.

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

Solzhenitsyn Would Have Loved Bitcoin

I didn’t plan to write this. But a comment from @HODL stirred something in me — a passing thought that took root and wouldn’t let go:

> “Solzhenitsyn would have understood Bitcoin.”

The more I sat with it, the more I realized: he wouldn’t have just understood it — he would have loved it.

---

A Life of Resistance

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn didn’t just survive the Soviet gulags — he exposed them. Through The Gulag Archipelago and other works, he revealed the quiet machinery of evil: not always through brutality, but through systemic lies, suppressed memory, and coerced consensus.

His core belief was devastatingly simple:

> “The line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being.”

He never let anyone off the hook — not the state, not the system, not even himself. Evil, to Solzhenitsyn, was not “out there.” It was within. And resisting it required truth, courage, and deep personal responsibility.

---

Bitcoin: Truth That Resists

That’s why I believe Solzhenitsyn would have resonated with Bitcoin.

Not the hype. Not the coins. Not the influencers.

But the heart of it:

• A system that resists coercion.

• A ledger that cannot be falsified.

• A network that cannot be silenced.

• A protocol that doesn't care about party lines — only proof of work.

Bitcoin is incorruptible memory.\ Solzhenitsyn fought to preserve memory in the face of state erasure.\ Bitcoin cannot forget — and it cannot be made to lie.

---

Responsibility and Sovereignty

Bitcoin demands what Solzhenitsyn demanded: moral responsibility. You hold your keys. You verify your truth. You cannot delegate conscience.

He once wrote:

> “A man who is not inwardly prepared for the use of violence against him is always weaker than his opponent.”

Bitcoin flips that equation. It gives the peaceful man a weapon: truth that cannot be seized.

---

I’ve Felt This Line Too

I haven’t read all of The Gulag Archipelago — it’s long, and weighty — but I’ve read enough to know Solzhenitsyn’s voice. And I’ve felt the line he describes:

> That dividing line between good and evil… that runs through my own heart.

That’s why I left the noise of Web3. That’s why I’m building with Bitcoin. Because I believe the moral architecture of this protocol matters. It forces me to live in alignment — or walk away.

---

Final Word

I think Solzhenitsyn would have seen Bitcoin not as a tech innovation, but as a moral stand. Not a replacement for Christ — but a quiet echo of His justice.

And that’s why I keep stacking, writing, building — one block at a time.

---

Written with help from ChatGPT (Dr. C), and inspired by a comment from @HODL that sparked something deep.

If this resonated, feel free to zap a few sats — not because I need them, but because signal flows best when it’s shared with intention.

---

HODL mentioned this idea in a note — their Primal profile:\ https://primal.net/hodl

@ 58537364:705b4b85

Ep 228 "วิชาชีวิต"

คนเราเมื่อเกิดมาแล้ว ไม่ได้หวังแค่มีชีวิตรอดเท่านั้น แต่ยังปรารถนา "ความเจริญก้าวหน้า" และ "ความสุขในชีวิต"

จึงพากันศึกษาเล่าเรียนเพื่อให้มี "วิชาความรู้" สำหรับการประกอบอาชีพ โดยเชื่อว่า การงานที่มั่นคงย่อมนำ "ความสำเร็จ" และ "ความเจริญก้าวหน้า" มาให้

อย่างไรก็ตาม...ความสำเร็จในวิชาชีพหรือความเจริญก้าวหน้าในชีวิต ไม่ได้เป็นหลักประกันความสุขอย่างแท้จริง

แม้เงินทองและทรัพย์สมบัติจะช่วยให้ชีวิตมีความสุข สะดวก สบาย แต่ไม่ได้ช่วยให้สุขใจในสิ่งที่ตนมี หากยังรู้สึกว่า "ตนยังมีไม่พอ"

ขณะเดียวกันชื่อเสียงเกียรติยศที่ได้มาก็ไม่ช่วยให้คลายความทุกข์ใจ เมื่อต้องเผชิญปัญหาต่างๆ นาๆ

ทั้งการพลัดพราก การสูญเสียบุคคลผู้เป็นที่รัก ความเจ็บป่วย และความตายที่ต้องเกิดขึ้นกับทุกคน

ยิ่งกว่านั้น...ความสำเร็จในอาชีพและความเจริญก้าวหน้าในชีวิต ล้วนเป็น "สิ่งไม่เที่ยง" แปรผันตกต่ำ ไม่สามารถควบคุมได้

วิชาชีพทั้งหลายช่วยให้เราหาเงินได้มากขึ้น แต่ไม่ได้ช่วยให้เราเข้าถึง "ความสุขที่แท้จริง"

คนที่ประสบความสำเร็จในวิชาชีพไม่น้อย ที่มีชีวิตอมทุกข์ ความเครียดรุมเร้า สุขภาพเสื่อมโทรม

หากเราไม่อยากเผชิญกับสิ่งเหล่านี้ ควรเรียน "วิชาชีวิต" เพื่อเข้าใจโลก เข้าใจชีวิต รู้เท่าทันความผันแปรไปของสรรพสิ่ง

วิชาชีวิต...เรียนจากประสบการณ์ชีวิต เมื่อมีปัญหาต่างๆ ขอให้คิดว่า คือ "บททดสอบ"

จงหมั่นศึกษาหาบทเรียนจากวิชานี้อยู่เสมอ สร้าง "ความตระหนักรู้" ถึงความสำคัญในการมีชีวิต

ช่วงที่ผ่านมา เมื่อมีปัญหาฉันไม่สามารถหาทางออกจากทุกข์ได้เศร้า เสียใจ ทุรน ทุราย สอบตก "วิชาชีวิต"

โชคดีครูบาอาจารย์ให้ข้อคิด กล่าวว่า เป็นเรื่องธรรมดาหากเรายังไม่เข้าใจชีวิต ทุกสิ่งล้วนผันแปร เกิด-ดับ เป็นธรรมดา ท่านเมตตาส่งหนังสือเล่มนี้มาให้

เมื่อค่อยๆ ศึกษา ทำความเข้าใจ นำความทุกข์ที่เกิดขึ้นมาพิจารณา เห็นว่าเมื่อ "สอบตก" ก็ "สอบใหม่" จนกว่าจะผ่านไปได้

วิชาทางโลกเมื่อสอบตกยังเปิดโอกาสให้เรา "สอบซ่อม" วิชาทางธรรมก็เช่นเดียวกัน หากเจอปัญหา อุปสรรค หรือ ความทุกข์ถาโถมเข้ามา ขอให้เราตั้งสติ ว่า จะตั้งใจทำข้อสอบนี้ให้ผ่านไปให้จงได้

หากเราสามารถดำเนินชีวิตด้วยความเข้าใจ เราจะค้นพบ "วิชาชีวิต" ที่สามารถทำให้หลุดพ้นจากความทุกข์ได้แน่นอน

ด้วยรักและปรารถนาดี ปาริชาติ รักตะบุตร 21 เมษายน 2566

น้อมกราบขอบพระคุณพระ อ.ไพศาล วิสาโล เป็นอย่างสูง ที่ท่านเมตตา ให้ข้อธรรมะยามทุกข์ใจและส่งหนังสือมาให้ จึงตั้งใจอยากแบ่งปันเป็นธรรมทาน

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

Most of the assets I hold—real estate, equities, and businesses—depreciate in value over time. Some literally, like physical buildings and equipment. Some functionally, like tech platforms that age faster than they grow. Even cash, which should feel "safe," quietly loses ground to inflation. Yet I continue to build. I continue to hold. And I continue to believe that what I’m doing matters.

But underneath all of that — beneath the mortgages, margin trades, and business pivots — I’ve made a long-term bet:

Bitcoin will outlast the decay.

---

The Decaying System I Still Operate In

Let me be clear: I’m not a Bitcoin purist. I use debt. I borrow to acquire real estate. I trade with margin in a brokerage account. I understand leverage — not as a sin, but as a tool that must be used with precision and respect. But I’m also not naive.

The entire fiat-based financial system is built on a slow erosion of value. Inflation isn't a bug — it’s a feature. And it's why most business models, whether in real estate or retail, implicitly rely on asset inflation just to stay solvent.

That’s not sustainable. And it’s not honest.

---

The Bitcoin Thesis: Deflation That Works for You

Bitcoin is fundamentally different. Its supply is fixed. Its issuance is decreasing. Over time, as adoption grows and fiat weakens, Bitcoin’s purchasing power increases.

That changes the game.

If you can hold even a small portion of your balance sheet in BTC — not just as an investment, but as a strategic hedge — it becomes a way to offset the natural depreciation of your other holdings. Your buildings may age. Your cash flow may fluctuate. But your Bitcoin, if properly secured and held with conviction, becomes the anchor.

It’s not about day trading BTC or catching the next ATH. It’s about understanding that in a world designed to leak value, Bitcoin lets you patch the hole.

---

Why This Matters for Builders

If you run a business — especially one with real assets, recurring costs, or thin margins — you know how brutal depreciation can be. Taxes, maintenance, inflation, replacement cycles… it never stops.

Adding BTC to your long-term treasury isn’t about becoming a "crypto company." It’s about becoming anti-fragile. It’s about building with a component that doesn’t rot.

In 5, 10, or 20 years, I may still be paying off mortgages and navigating property cycles. But if my Bitcoin allocation is still intact, still growing in real purchasing power… then I haven’t just preserved wealth. I’ve preserved optionality. I’ve created a counterbalance to the relentless decay of everything else.

---

Final Word

I still play the fiat game — because for now, I have to. But I’m no longer betting everything on it. Bitcoin is my base layer now. Quiet, cold-stored, and uncompromising.

It offsets depreciation — not just financially, but philosophically. It reminds me that not everything has to erode. Not everything has to be sacrificed to time or policy or inflation.

Some things can actually hold. Some things can last.

And if I build right — maybe what I build can last too.

---

If this resonated, feel free to send a zap — it helps me keep writing and building from a place of conviction.

This article was co-written with the help of ChatGPT, a tool I use to refine and clarify what I’m working through in real time.

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Key Takeaways

In this episode, Bram Kanstein delivers a powerful exploration of how studying money for thousands of hours led him to a single, life-changing conclusion: Bitcoin is the key to preserving value and reclaiming personal agency in an increasingly unstable world. Through the lens of a disillusioned millennial generation—raised with technological optimism but betrayed by economic reality—Bram exposes the fiat system as one built on illusion, debt, and diminishing returns. He explains how Bitcoin’s transparent, rule-based design offers a principled alternative, especially for those wired to question systems and seek truth. Describing the fiat economy as a “high-velocity trash system” that undermines innovation and long-term planning, he argues Bitcoin creates the time and space to think, build, and live freely. As AI reshapes the labor market, Bram sees Bitcoin as a vital foundation for individuals to adapt, maintain sovereignty, and thrive in a future defined by rapid technological disruption.

Best Quotes

“Anything that you would want to fix in the world is broken because the money is broken.”

“You’re stacking nothing. Literal paper.”

“You have to red pill before you orange pill.”

“The only thing you need to do is move to the other money that they cannot mess with.”

“One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. That’s the whole point.”

“Millennials are primed to understand Bitcoin.”

“Bitcoin lets you get out of the rat race and start walking your own path.”

“The fiat mindset is a zero-sum game. In Bitcoin, value is created.”

“We should stop asking how to value Bitcoin—and start asking how to value everything else in Bitcoin.”

“Even with a master’s in economics, people still don’t understand what money is.”

Conclusion

This episode delivers a powerful call to rethink everything we assume about money, arguing that understanding Bitcoin is less about profit and more about reclaiming personal agency in a world defined by uncertainty. Bram Kanstein shows how asking fundamental questions—like “What is money?”—can lead to a deeper sense of purpose and autonomy. As AI and systemic instability accelerate, Bitcoin emerges not just as sound money, but as a life tool for intentional living, long-term thinking, and individual sovereignty.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:36 - INTJ bitcoiners
4:58 - The millennial headspace is primed for bitcoin
7:25 - Bitcoin gives time and space to build
15:29 - Fold & Bitkey
17:05 - Seeing systemic problems
26:25 - Bitcoin’s positive feedback loop
33:55 - Recognize your agency
37:58 - Unchained
38:27 - Fiat money creates uncertainty
44:41 - What is money?
54:04 - Money and energy
1:03:43 - Bitcoin allows growth
1:09:02 - Bitcoin/AI
1:31:34 - Optimistic note

Transcript

(00:00) Let's say you're a millennial and mid-30s and you want to retire in 30 years. If you calculate the amount of dollar, pound the euro, yen units. You need way more units of that money than you think right now. They are funding pension funds, but the pension funds are using that money for the people that are actually retiring.
(00:17) No one knows about money. They don't know how debt works, how finance works. But that's kind of how it's designed, right? Like that's what eventually keeps the Ponzi alive. And I just started with the question, what do you think happens if you call the bank and say like, hey, can I get 100 or 200k in cash? Man, you got an editor like in house.
(00:39) That's That's pro. That's uh it's because this setup I'm so far away from the computer. I just need somebody to hit the button. Okay. Okay. the extent the extent of of Logan's job extends far beyond just hitting the button. But yeah, INTJ I think uh I think it was as we rear into what looks to be another bull market.
(01:05) I think getting back to first principles and discussing the challenges of studying and understanding Bitcoin, it's important to to highlight the archetype of individuals who have studied fallen down the rabbit hole and really dedicated their lives to Bitcoin. And this INTJ cohort that exists within Bitcoin seems pretty material apparently. Yeah.
(01:35) I mean, I have many moments where I just realize that I'm lucky that my brain is wired in a certain way, you know. I feel like crazy blessed that I figured out this Bitcoin thing, you know, and that when I ran into certain realizations along the way in my Bitcoin journey that I was like, hm, you know, how does this actually work? you know, do I actually understand the systems I'm participating in, the things that I believe, you know, the the the the people that I abstracted um or or outsourced certain responsibilities to to take care of, for example, my money
(02:10) in the bank. You know, I I think um being wired in a certain way definitely helps in grasping Bitcoin to a degree where you're like, okay, this is the only thing I need to pay attention to, you know, in my life. And yeah, we we jokingly started talking about this because I have the hat here, but there was this um I think it was like like a Twitter poll actually or someone shared it on Twitter and this is already like two or three years old where where someone investigated these MyersBriggs um personality types and I think there's
(02:42) only like 2% of people that have INTJ but like 20% of Bitcoiners have that personality type. So it um it apparently helps. So yeah, I just I just quickly Googled it actually. It says uh the INTJ is the architect. It's a personality type with the introverted intuitive thinking and judging traits. These thoughtful tacticians love perfecting the details of life, applying creativity and rationality to everything they do.
(03:09) I think the rationality part here is what um what uh I think helps you to to gro Bitcoin eventually. Yeah, it reminds me of I forget what the study was, but postco it was a similar distribution of just like 2% of people were highly skeptical of what was going on with the lockdowns and the attack on bodily autonomy.
(03:38) And there was a study that was done about I forget it was bees or some type of fly that they they have like the horde of um the horde of the particular fly I think it was bees has like 2% act as these sort of alarm bells that are on the outside the outskirts of the community and they'll start communicating like hey something's wrong here and people the other flies or bees will be skeptical at first but then eventually uh the alarm bells will be proven to be right that there was some sort of danger around the corner. That's fascinating.
(04:09) Yeah. Yeah, that's fascinating. I I think we're not that special eventually, you know, like we think we have all this autonomy, but but um yeah, we're we're just wired in a certain way. And I think I don't know where you want to take this conversation, but I think, you know, part of growing up and being an adult is figuring out, you know, how do I actually work and how do I work with how I work, you know? Yeah. No, it is.
(04:36) And as I get older, creep into my mid-30s, which is hard hard to come to grips with, it is uh really falling back on like, all right, I I feel like I have a good perspective on the world and my place in it, and how do I just optimize to make sure I'm aligning my my work and my career, I guess, if you call it that, with what I'm passionate about. Yeah.
(05:00) Well, I also think that is actually why our generation, you know, my my podcast is Bitcoin for millennials. I think uh the millennials are primed to understand Bitcoin. You know, we are in this life phase where big things happen, you know, starting a family or settling somewhere or or making big career moves or decide Yeah.
(05:25) like deciding what am I going to spend like the next 10 20 years on and uh I think it's an interesting phase actually I I don't know how that was for you but but for me like the the 30s were really where I dove more and more into Bitcoin like got got that stronger conviction and also yeah kind of was invited to go further down that that rabbit hole you know and like how I see it now is that that Bitcoin is really the foundation for the rest of my life, you know, like it it gives me time and space to look forward and enthusiasm, you know, like I sometimes lurk on the
(06:01) millennial subreddit, you know, or the finance sub subreddit. And many people in our generation are very nihilistic, you know, they're very unsure about the future. Like some people aren't even having kids because they think they cannot afford it, you know. And uh whenever I read that, I just think like, yeah, I I don't really have those things.
(06:22) But I know it's because of Bitcoin, you know. I I know that Bitcoin gives me, yeah, like I said, the time and space to figure out what's next, like what should I focus on? Like it gives time and space to to try out stuff, to build something, you know, to to to really attempt at at doing something. Where I see many people that don't see that, they are more in the consumer type, you know, like they they just spend the money that's worth the most today, you know, like that's what they're incentivized to do. Yeah.
(06:49) And is is that why you started Bitcoin for millennials is to number one put the put the message out there. Millennials come listen to this. One of you Yes. that is trying to educate you about this. But because this is something I think about a lot is somebody's like dead smack in the middle of the millennial generation and has observed many of the things you just described in my own life, my own network.
(07:13) And that's part of the reason why this podcast exists. And um what I'm trying to do at TFTC is just try to figure out a way to reach into the minds of millennials, hopefully c

@ 502ab02a:a2860397

ในสายตาคนรักสุขภาพทั่วโลก “อโวคาโด” คือผลไม้ในฝัน มันมีไขมันดี มีไฟเบอร์สูง ช่วยลดคอเลสเตอรอลได้ มีวิตามินอี มีโพแทสเซียม และที่สำคัญคือ "ดูดี" ทุกครั้งที่ถูกปาดวางบนขนมปังโฮลวีตในชามสลัด หรือบนโฆษณาอาหารคลีนสุดหรู

แต่ในสายตาชาวไร่บางคนในเม็กซิโกหรือชุมชนพื้นเมืองในโดมินิกัน อโวคาโดไม่ใช่ผลไม้แห่งสุขภาพ แต่มันคือสัญลักษณ์ของความรุนแรง การกดขี่ และการสูญเสียเสรีภาพในผืนดินของตัวเอง

เมื่ออาหารกลายเป็นทองคำ กลุ่มอิทธิพลก็ไม่เคยพลาดจะเข้าครอบครอง

เรามักได้ยินคำว่า "ทองคำเขียว" หรือ Green Gold ใช้เรียกอโวคาโด เพราะในรอบ 20 ปีที่ผ่านมา ความต้องการบริโภคของมันพุ่งสูงขึ้นเป็นเท่าตัว โดยเฉพาะในสหรัฐฯ และยุโรป จากผลการวิจัยของมหาวิทยาลัยฮาร์วาร์ดและข้อมูลการส่งออกของ USDA พบว่า 90% ของอโวคาโดที่บริโภคในอเมริกา มาจากรัฐมิโชอากังของเม็กซิโก พื้นที่ซึ่งควบคุมโดยกลุ่มค้ายาเสพติดไม่ต่างจากเจ้าของสวนตัวจริง

พวกเขาเรียกเก็บ “ค่าคุ้มครอง” จากเกษตรกร โดยใช้วิธีเดียวกับมาเฟีย คือ ถ้าไม่จ่าย ก็เจ็บตัวหรือหายตัว ไม่ว่าจะเป็นกลุ่ม CJNG (Jalisco New Generation Cartel), Familia Michoacana หรือ Caballeros Templarios พวกเขาไม่ได้สนใจว่าใครปลูกหรือใครรดน้ำ ตราบใดที่ผลผลิตสามารถเปลี่ยนเป็นเงินได้

องค์กรอาชญากรรมเหล่านี้ไม่ได้แค่ “แฝงตัว” ในอุตสาหกรรม แต่ ยึดครอง ห่วงโซ่การผลิตทั้งหมด ตั้งแต่แปลงปลูกไปจนถึงโรงบรรจุและเส้นทางขนส่ง คนที่ไม่ยอมเข้าระบบมืดอาจต้องพบจุดจบในป่า หรือไม่มีชื่ออยู่ในทะเบียนบ้านอีกต่อไป

จากรายงานของเว็บไซต์ Food is Power องค์กรไม่แสวงกำไรด้านความยุติธรรมด้านอาหารในสหรัฐฯ เผยว่า ในปี 2020 มีเกษตรกรในเม็กซิโกจำนวนมากที่ถูกข่มขู่ บางรายถึงขั้นถูกฆาตกรรม เพราะปฏิเสธจ่ายค่าคุ้มครองจากกลุ่มค้ายา

การปลูกอโวคาโดไม่ใช่เรื่องเบาๆ กับธรรมชาติ เพราะมันต้องการ “น้ำ” มากถึง 272 ลิตรต่อผลเดียว! เรามาดูว่า “272 ลิตร” นี้ เท่ากับอะไรบ้างในชีวิตจริง อาบน้ำฝักบัวนาน 10–12 นาที (โดยเฉลี่ยใช้น้ำ 20–25 ลิตรต่อนาที) ใช้น้ำซักเสื้อผ้าเครื่องหนึ่ง (เครื่องซักผ้า 1 ครั้งกินประมาณ 60–100 ลิตร) น้ำดื่มของคนหนึ่งคนได้นานเกือบ เดือน (คนเราต้องการน้ำดื่มประมาณ 1.5–2 ลิตรต่อวัน)

ถ้าเราใช้ข้อมูลจาก FAO และ Water Footprint Network การผลิตเนื้อวัว 1 กิโลกรัม ต้องใช้น้ำ 15,000 ลิตร (รวมทั้งการปลูกหญ้า อาหารสัตว์ การดื่มน้ำของวัว ฯลฯ) ได้โปรตีนราว 250 กรัม อโวคาโด 1 กิโลกรัม (ราว 5 ผล) ใช้น้ำประมาณ 1,360 ลิตร ได้โปรตีนเพียง 6–8 กรัมเท่านั้น พูดง่ายๆคือ เมื่อเทียบอัตราส่วนเป็นลิตรต่อกรัมโปรตีนแล้วนั้น วัวใช้น้ำ 60 ลิตรต่อกรัมโปรตีน / อโวคาโด ใช้น้ำ 194 ลิตรต่อกรัมโปรตีน แถมการเลี้ยงวัวในระบบธรรมชาติ (เช่น pasture-raised หรือ regenerative farming) ยังสามารถเป็นส่วนหนึ่งของระบบหมุนเวียนน้ำและคาร์บอนได้ พอเห็นภาพแล้วใช่ไหมครับ ดังนั้นเราควรระมัดระวังการเสพสื่อเอาไว้ด้วยว่า คำว่า "ดีต่อโลก" ไม่ได้หมายถึงพืชอย่างเดียว ทุกธุรกิจถ้าทำแบบที่ควรทำ มันยังสามารถผลักดันโลกไม่ให้ตกอยู่ในมือองค์กร future food ได้ เพราะมูลค่ามันสูงมาก

และเมื่อราคาสูง พื้นที่เพาะปลูกก็ขยายอย่างไร้การควบคุม ป่าธรรมชาติในรัฐมิโชอากังถูกแอบโค่นแบบผิดกฎหมายเพื่อแปลงสภาพเป็นไร่ “ทองเขียว” ข้อมูลจาก Reuters พบว่าผลไม้ที่ถูกส่งออกไปยังสหรัฐฯ บางส่วนมาจากแปลงปลูกที่บุกรุกป่าคุ้มครอง และรัฐบาลเองก็ไม่สามารถควบคุมได้เพราะอิทธิพลของกลุ่มทุนและมาเฟีย

ในโดมินิกันก็เช่นกัน มีรายงานจากสำนักข่าว Gestalten ว่าพื้นที่ป่าสงวนหลายพันไร่ถูกเปลี่ยนเป็นไร่อโวคาโด เพื่อป้อนตลาดผู้บริโภคในอเมริกาและยุโรปโดยตรง โดยไม่มีการชดเชยใดๆ แก่ชุมชนท้องถิ่น

สุขภาพที่ดีไม่ควรได้มาจากการทำลายสุขภาพของคนอื่น ไม่ควรมีผลไม้ใดที่ดูดีในจานของเรา แล้วเบื้องหลังเต็มไปด้วยคราบเลือดและน้ำตาของคนปลูก

เฮียไม่ได้จะบอกให้เลิกกินอโวคาโดเลย แต่เฮียอยากให้เรารู้ทัน ว่าความนิยมของอาหารสุขภาพวันนี้ กำลังเป็นสนามใหม่ของกลุ่มทุนโลก ที่พร้อมจะครอบครองด้วย “อำนาจอ่อน” ผ่านแบรนด์อาหารธรรมชาติ ผ่านกฎหมายสิ่งแวดล้อม หรือแม้แต่การครอบงำตลาดเสรีด้วยกำลังอาวุธ

นี่ไม่ใช่เรื่องไกลตัว เพราะเมื่อกลุ่มทุนเริ่มฮุบเมล็ดพันธุ์ คุมเส้นทางขนส่ง คุมฉลาก Certified Organic ทั้งหลาย พวกเขาก็ “ควบคุมสุขภาพ” ของผู้บริโภคเมืองอย่างเราไปด้วยโดยอ้อม

คำถามสำคัญที่มาทุกครั้งเวลามีเนื้อหาอะไรมาฝากคือ แล้วเราจะทำอะไรได้? 555555 - เลือกบริโภคผลไม้จากแหล่งที่โปร่งใสหรือปลูกเองได้ - สนับสนุนเกษตรกรรายย่อยที่ไม่อยู่ภายใต้กลุ่มทุน - ใช้เสียงของผู้บริโภคกดดันให้มีระบบตรวจสอบต้นทางจริง ไม่ใช่แค่ฉลากเขียวสวยๆ - และที่สำคัญ อย่าเชื่อว่า “ทุกสิ่งที่เขาวางให้ดูสุขภาพดี” จะดีจริง (ข้อนี่ละตัวดีเลยครับ)

สุขภาพไม่ใช่สินค้า และอาหารไม่ควรเป็นอาวุธของกลุ่มทุน หากเราเริ่มตระหนักว่าอาหารคือการเมือง น้ำคืออำนาจ และแปลงเกษตรคือสนามรบ เฮียเชื่อว่าผู้บริโภคอย่างเราจะไม่ยอมเป็นหมากอีกต่อไป #pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

Global fintech leader Revolut has announced a landmark partnership with Lightspark, a pioneer in blockchain infrastructure solutions, to integrate bitcoin’s Lightning Network into its platform.

This collaboration, now live for Revolut users in the UK and select European Economic Area (EEA) countries, marks a transformative leap toward frictionless, real-time transactions—eliminating delays and exorbitant fees traditionally associated with digital asset transfers.

Major update: @RevolutApp is now partnering with @lightspark pic.twitter.com/OUblgrj6Xr

— Lightspark (@lightspark) May 7, 2025

Breaking Barriers in Digital Currency Usability

By adopting Lightspark’s cutting-edge technology, Revolut empowers its 40+ million customers to execute bitcoin transactions instantly at a fraction of current costs.

This integration addresses longstanding pain points in digital currency adoption, positioning bitcoin as a practical tool for everyday payments. Users can now seamlessly send, receive, and store bitcoin with the same ease as traditional fiat currencies, backed by Revolut’s secure platform.

The partnership also advances Revolut’s integration into the open Money Grid, a decentralized network enabling universal interoperability between financial platforms.

This move aligns Revolut with forward-thinking fintechs adopting next-gen solutions like Lightning transactions and Universal Money Addresses (UMA), which simplify cross-border payments by replacing complex wallet codes with human-readable addresses (e.g., $john.smith).

Why This Matters

The collaboration challenges conventional payment rails, which often incur delays of days and high fees for cross-border transfers. By contrast, Lightning Network transactions settle in seconds for minimal cost, revolutionizing peer-to-peer payments, remittances, and merchant settlements. For Revolut users, this means:

• Instant transactions: Send bitcoin globally in under three seconds.
• Near-zero fees: Dramatically reduce costs compared to traditional crypto transfers.
• Enhanced utility: Use bitcoin for daily spending, not just as a speculative asset.

The Road Ahead

Revolut plans to expand Lightning Network access to additional markets in 2025, with ambitions to integrate UMA support for seamless fiat and digital currency interactions. Lightspark will continue optimizing its infrastructure to support Revolut’s scaling efforts, further bridging the gap between blockchain innovation and mainstream finance.

About Revolut
Revolut is a global financial app serving over 40 million customers worldwide. Offering services ranging from currency exchange and stock trading to digital assets and insurance, Revolut is committed to building a borderless financial ecosystem.

About Lightspark
Founded by former PayPal and Meta executives, Lightspark develops enterprise-grade solutions for the Lightning Network. Its technology stack empowers institutions to harness bitcoin’s speed and efficiency while maintaining regulatory compliance.

@ b7274d28:c99628cb

A few months ago, a nostrich was switching from iOS to Android and asked for suggestions for #Nostr apps to try out. nostr:npub18ams6ewn5aj2n3wt2qawzglx9mr4nzksxhvrdc4gzrecw7n5tvjqctp424 offered the following as his response:

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzq0mhp4ja8fmy48zuk5p6uy37vtk8tx9dqdwcxm32sy8nsaa8gkeyqydhwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnwdaehgunsd3jkyuewvdhk6tcpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhszythwden5te0dehhxarj9emkjmn99uqzpwwts6n28eyvjpcwvu5akkwu85eg92dpvgw7cgmpe4czdadqvnv984rl0z

Yes. #Android users are fortunate to have some powerful Nostr apps and tools at our disposal that simply have no comparison over on the iOS side. However, a tool is only as good as the knowledge of the user, who must have an understanding of how best to wield it for maximum effect. This fact was immediately evidenced by replies to Derek asking, "What is the use case for Citrine?" and "This is the first time I'm hearing about Citrine and Pokey. Can you give me links for those?"

Well, consider this tutorial your Nostr starter-kit for Android. We'll go over installing and setting up Amber, Amethyst, Citrine, and Pokey, and as a bonus we'll be throwing in the Zapstore and Coinos to boot. We will assume no previous experience with any of the above, so if you already know all about one or more of these apps, you can feel free to skip that tutorial.

So many apps...

You may be wondering, "Why do I need so many apps to use Nostr?" That's perfectly valid, and the honest answer is, you don't. You can absolutely just install a Nostr client from the Play Store, have it generate your Nostr identity for you, and stick with the default relays already set up in that app. You don't even need to connect a wallet, if you don't want to. However, you won't experience all that Nostr has to offer if that is as far as you go, any more than you would experience all that Italian cuisine has to offer if you only ever try spaghetti.

Nostr is not just one app that does one thing, like Facebook, Twitter, or TikTok. It is an entire ecosystem of applications that are all built on top of a protocol that allows them to be interoperable. This set of tools will help you make the most out of that interoperability, which you will never get from any of the big-tech social platforms. It will provide a solid foundation for you to build upon as you explore more and more of what Nostr has to offer.

So what do these apps do?

Fundamental to everything you do on Nostr is the need to cryptographically sign with your private key. If you aren't sure what that means, just imagine that you had to enter your password every time you hit the "like" button on Facebook, or every time you commented on the latest dank meme. That would get old really fast, right? That's effectively what Nostr requires, but on steroids.

To keep this from being something you manually have to do every 5 seconds when you post a note, react to someone else's note, or add a comment, Nostr apps can store your private key and use it to sign behind the scenes for you. This is very convenient, but it means you are trusting that app to not do anything with your private key that you don't want it to. You are also trusting it to not leak your private key, because anyone who gets their hands on it will be able to post as you, see your private messages, and effectively be you on Nostr. The more apps you give your private key to, the greater your risk that it will eventually be compromised.

Enter #Amber, an application that will store your private key in only one app, and all other compatible Nostr apps can communicate with it to request a signature, without giving any of those other apps access to your private key.

Most Nostr apps for Android now support logging in and signing with Amber, and you can even use it to log into apps on other devices, such as some of the web apps you use on your PC. It's an incredible tool given to us by nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5, and only available for Android users. Those on iPhone are incredibly jealous that they don't have anything comparable, yet.

Speaking of nostr:npub1w4uswmv6lu9yel005l3qgheysmr7tk9uvwluddznju3nuxalevvs2d0jr5, the next app is also one of his making.

All Nostr data is stored on relays, which are very simple servers that Nostr apps read notes from and write notes to. In most forms of social media, it can be a pain to get your own data out to keep a backup. That's not the case on Nostr. Anyone can run their own relay, either for the sake of backing up their personal notes, or for others to post their notes to, as well.

Since Nostr notes take up very little space, you can actually run a relay on your phone. I have been on Nostr for almost 2 and a half years, and I have 25,000+ notes of various kinds on my relay, and a backup of that full database is just 24MB on my phone's storage.

Having that backup can save your bacon if you try out a new Nostr client and it doesn't find your existing follow list for some reason, so it writes a new one and you suddenly lose all of the people you were following. Just pop into your #Citrine relay, confirm it still has your correct follow list or import it from a recent backup, then have Citrine restore it. Done.

Additionally, there are things you may want to only save to a relay you control, such as draft messages that you aren't ready to post publicly, or eCash tokens, which can actually be saved to Nostr relays now. Citrine can also be used with Amber for signing into certain Nostr applications that use a relay to communicate with Amber.

If you are really adventurous, you can also expose Citrine over Tor to be used as an outbox relay, or used for peer-to-peer private messaging, but that is far more involved than the scope of this tutorial series.

You can't get far in Nostr without a solid and reliable client to interact with. #Amethyst is the client we will be using for this tutorial because there simply isn't another Android client that comes close, so far. Moreover, it can be a great client for new users to get started on, and yet it has a ton of features for power-users to take advantage of as well.

There are plenty of other good clients to check out over time, such as Coracle, YakiHonne, Voyage, Olas, Flotilla and others, but I keep coming back to Amethyst, and by the time you finish this tutorial, I think you'll see why. nostr:npub1gcxzte5zlkncx26j68ez60fzkvtkm9e0vrwdcvsjakxf9mu9qewqlfnj5z and others who have contributed to Amethyst have really built something special in this client, and it just keeps improving with every update that's shipped.

Most social media apps have some form of push notifications, and some Nostr apps do, too. Where the issue comes in is that Nostr apps are all interoperable. If you have more than one application, you're going to have both of them notifying you. Nostr users are known for having five or more Nostr apps that they use regularly. If all of them had notifications turned on, it would be a nightmare. So maybe you limit it to only one of your Nostr apps having notifications turned on, but then you are pretty well locked-in to opening that particular app when you tap on the notification.

Pokey, by nostr:npub1v3tgrwwsv7c6xckyhm5dmluc05jxd4yeqhpxew87chn0kua0tjzqc6yvjh, solves this issue, allowing you to turn notifications off for all of your Nostr apps, and have Pokey handle them all for you. Then, when you tap on a Pokey notification, you can choose which Nostr app to open it in.

Pokey also gives you control over the types of things you want to be notified about. Maybe you don't care about reactions, and you just want to know about zaps, comments, and direct messages. Pokey has you covered. It even supports multiple accounts, so you can get notifications for all the npubs you control.

One of the most unique and incredibly fun aspects of Nostr is the ability to send and receive #zaps. Instead of merely giving someone a 👍️ when you like something they said, you can actually send them real value in the form of sats, small portions of a Bitcoin. There is nothing quite like the experience of receiving your first zap and realizing that someone valued what you said enough to send you a small amount (and sometimes not so small) of #Bitcoin, the best money mankind has ever known.

To be able to have that experience, though, you are going to need a wallet that can send and receive zaps, and preferably one that is easy to connect to Nostr applications. My current preference for that is Alby Hub, but not everyone wants to deal with all that comes along with running a #Lightning node. That being the case, I have opted to use nostr:npub1h2qfjpnxau9k7ja9qkf50043xfpfy8j5v60xsqryef64y44puwnq28w8ch for this tutorial, because they offer one of the easiest wallets to set up, and it connects to most Nostr apps by just copy/pasting a connection string from the settings in the wallet into the settings in your Nostr app of choice.

Additionally, even though #Coinos is a custodial wallet, you can have it automatically transfer any #sats over a specified threshold to a separate wallet, allowing you to mitigate the custodial risk without needing to keep an eye on your balance and make the transfer manually.

Most of us on Android are used to getting all of our mobile apps from one souce: the Google Play Store. That's not possible for this tutorial series. Only one of the apps mentioned above is available in Google's permissioned playground. However, on Android we have the advantage of being able to install whatever we want on our device, just by popping into our settings and flipping a toggle. Indeed, thumbing our noses at big-tech is at the heart of the Nostr ethos, so why would we make ourselves beholden to Google for installing Nostr apps?

The nostr:npub10r8xl2njyepcw2zwv3a6dyufj4e4ajx86hz6v4ehu4gnpupxxp7stjt2p8 is an alternative app store made by nostr:npub1wf4pufsucer5va8g9p0rj5dnhvfeh6d8w0g6eayaep5dhps6rsgs43dgh9 as a resource for all sorts of open-source apps, but especially Nostr apps. What is more, you can log in with Amber, connect a wallet like Coinos, and support the developers of your favorite Nostr apps directly within the #Zapstore by zapping their app releases.

One of the biggest features of the Zapstore is the fact that developers can cryptographically sign their app releases using their Nostr keys, so you know that the app you are downloading is the one they actually released and hasn't been altered in any way. The Zapstore will warn you and won't let you install the app if the signature is invalid.

Getting Started

Since the Zapstore will be the source we use for installing most of the other apps mentioned, we will start with installing the Zapstore.

We will then use the Zapstore to install Amber and set it up with our Nostr account, either by creating a new private key, or by importing one we already have. We'll also use it to log into the Zapstore.

Next, we will install Amethyst from the Zapstore and log into it via Amber.

After this, we will install Citrine from the Zapstore and add it as a local relay on Amethyst.

Because we want to be able to send and receive zaps, we will set up a wallet with CoinOS and connect it to Amethyst and the Zapstore using Nostr Wallet Connect.

Finally, we will install Pokey using the Zapstore, log into it using Amber, and set up the notifications we want to receive.

By the time you are done with this series, you will have a great head-start on your Nostr journey compared to muddling through it all on your own. Moreover, you will have developed a familiarity with how things generally work on Nostr that can be applied to other apps you try out in the future.

Continue to Part 2: Installing the Zapstore. (Coming Soon)

@ 90152b7f:04e57401

WikiLeaks The Global Intelligence Files

Released on 2013-03-04 00:00 GMT

| Email-ID | 296467 | | -------- | -------------------------- | | Date | 2007-10-29 20:54:22 | | From | <hrwpress@hrw.org> | | To | <responses@stratfor.com> |

Gaza: Israel's Fuel and Power Cuts Violate Laws of War\ \ For Immediate Release\ \ Gaza: Israel's Fuel and Power Cuts Violate Laws of War\ \ Civilians Should Not Be Penalized for Rocket Attacks by Armed Groups\ \ (New York, October 29, 2007) - Israel's decision to limit fuel and\ electricity to the Gaza Strip in retaliation for unlawful rocket attacks\ by armed groups amounts to collective punishment against the civilian\ population of Gaza, in violation of international law, and will worsen the\ humanitarian crisis there, Human Rights Watch said today.\ \ "Israel may respond to rocket attacks by armed groups to protect its\ population, but only in lawful ways," said Sarah Leah Whitson, director of\ Human Rights Watch's Middle East division. "Because Israel remains an\ occupying power, in light of its continuing restrictions on Gaza, Israel\ must not take measures that harm the civilian population - yet that is\ precisely what cutting fuel or electricity for even short periods will\ do."\ \ On Sunday, the Israeli Defense Ministry ordered the reduction of fuel\ shipments from Israel to Gaza. A government spokesman said the plan was to\ cut the amount of fuel by 5 to 11 percent without affecting the supply of\ industrial fuel for Gaza's only power plant.\ \ According to Palestinian officials, fuel shipments into Gaza yesterday\ fell by more than 30 percent.\ \ In response to the government's decision, a group of 10 Palestinian and\ Israeli human rights groups petitioned the Israeli Supreme Court on\ Sunday, seeking an immediate injunction against the fuel and electricity\ cuts. The court gave the government five days to respond but did not issue\ a temporary injunction. On Monday, the groups requested an urgent hearing\ before the five days expire.\ \ Last Thursday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak approved cutting electricity to\ Gaza for increasing periods in response to ongoing rocket attacks against\ civilian areas in Israel, but the government has not yet implemented the\ order.\ \ The rockets fired by Palestinian armed groups violate the international\ legal prohibition on indiscriminate attacks because they are highly\ inaccurate and cannot be directed at a specific target. Because Hamas\ exercises power inside Gaza, it is responsible for stopping indiscriminate\ attacks even when carried out by other groups, Human Rights Watch said.\ \ On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said that Israel would\ respond strongly to the ongoing attacks without allowing a humanitarian\ crisis. But the UN's top humanitarian official, UN Deputy\ Secretary-General John Holmes, said that a "serious humanitarian crisis"\ in Gaza already exists, and called on Israel to lift the economic blockade\ that it tightened after Hamas seized power in June.\ \ Israel's decision to cut fuel and electricity is the latest move aimed\ ostensibly against Hamas that is affecting the entire population of Gaza.\ In September, the Israeli cabinet declared Gaza "hostile territory" and\ voted to "restrict the passage of various goods to the Gaza Strip and\ reduce the supply of fuel and electricity." Since then, Israel has\ increasingly blocked supplies into Gaza, letting in limited amounts of\ essential foodstuffs, medicine and humanitarian supplies. According to\ Holmes, the number of humanitarian convoys entering Gaza had dropped to\ 1,500 in September from 3,000 in July.\ \ "Cutting fuel and electricity obstructs vital services," Whitson said.\ "Operating rooms, sewage pumps, and water well pumps all need electricity\ to run."\ \ Israel sells to Gaza roughly 60 percent of the electricity consumed by the\ territory's 1.5 million inhabitants. In June 2006, six Israeli missiles\ struck Gaza's only power plant; today, for most residents, electricity is\ available during only limited hours.\ \ Israeli officials said they would cut electricity for 15 minutes after\ each rocket attack and then for increasingly longer periods if the attacks\ persist. Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilnai said Israel would\ "dramatically reduce" the power it supplied to Gaza over a period of\ weeks.\ \ Cutting fuel or electricity to the civilian population violates a basic\ principle of international humanitarian law, or the laws of war, which\ prohibit a government that has effective control over a territory from\ attacking or withholding objects that are essential to the survival of the\ civilian population. Such an act would also violate Israel's duty as an\ occupying power to safeguard the health and welfare of the population\ under occupation.\ \ Israel withdrew its military forces and settlers from the Gaza Strip in\ 2005. Nonetheless, Israel remains responsible for ensuring the well-being\ of Gaza's population for as long as, and to the extent that, it retains\ effective control over the area. Israel still exercises control over\ Gaza's airspace, sea space and land borders, as well as its electricity,\ water, sewage and telecommunications networks and population registry.\ Israel can and has also reentered Gaza for security operations at will.\ \ Israeli officials state that by declaring Gaza "hostile territory," it is\ no longer obliged under international law to supply utilities to the\ civilian population, but that is a misstatement of the law.\ \ "A mere declaration does not change the facts on the ground that impose on\ Israel the status and obligations of an occupying power," said Whitson.\ \ For more information, please contact:\ \ In New York, Fred Abrahams (English, German): +1-917-385-7333 (mobile)\ \ In Washington, DC, Joe Stork (English): +1-202-299-4925 (mobile)\ \ In Cairo, Gasser Abdel-Razek (Arabic, English): +20-2-2-794-5036 (mobile);\ or +20-10-502-9999 (mobile)

@ dfa02707:41ca50e3

News

• Bitcoin mining centralization in 2025. According to a blog post by b10c, Bitcoin mining was at its most decentralized in May 2017, with another favorable period from 2019 to 2022. However, starting in 2023, mining has become increasingly centralized, particularly due to the influence of large pools like Foundry and the use of proxy pooling by entities such as AntPool.

Source: b10c's blog.

• OpenSats announces the eleventh wave of Nostr grants. The five projects in this wave are the mobile live-streaming app Swae, the Nostr-over-ham-radio project HAMSTR, Vertex—a Web-of-Trust (WOT) service for Nostr developers, Nostr Double Ratchet for end-to-end encrypted messaging, and the Nostr Game Engine for building games and applications integrated with the Nostr ecosystem.
• New Spiral grantee: l0rinc. In February 2024, l0rinc transitioned to full-time work on Bitcoin Core. His efforts focus on performance benchmarking and optimizations, enhancing code quality, conducting code reviews, reducing block download times, optimizing memory usage, and refactoring code.
• Project Eleven offers 1 BTC to break Bitcoin's cryptography with a quantum computer. The quantum computing research organization has introduced the Q-Day Prize, a global challenge that offers 1 BTC to the first team capable of breaking an elliptic curve cryptographic (ECC) key using Shor’s algorithm on a quantum computer. The prize will be awarded to the first team to successfully accomplish this breakthrough by April 5, 2026.
• Unchained has launched the Bitcoin Legacy Project. The initiative seeks to advance the Bitcoin ecosystem through a bitcoin-native donor-advised fund platform (DAF), investments in community hubs, support for education and open-source development, and a commitment to long-term sustainability with transparent annual reporting.
  • In its first year, the program will provide support to Bitcoin hubs in Nashville, Austin, and Denver.
  • Support also includes $50,000 to the Bitcoin Policy Institute, a $150,000 commitment at the University of Austin, and up to $250,000 in research grants through the Bitcoin Scholars program.

"Unchained will match grants 1:1 made to partner organizations who support Bitcoin Core development when made through the Unchained-powered bitcoin DAF, up to 1 BTC," was stated in a blog post.

• Block launched open-source tools for Bitcoin treasury management. These include a dashboard for managing corporate bitcoin holdings and provides a real-time BTC-to-USD price quote API, released as part of the Block Open Source initiative. The company’s own instance of the bitcoin holdings dashboard is available here.

Source: block.xyz

• Bull Bitcoin expands to Mexico, enabling anyone in the country to receive pesos from anywhere in the world straight from a Bitcoin wallet. Additionally, users can now buy Bitcoin with a Mexican bank account.

"Bull Bitcoin strongly believes in Bitcoin’s economic potential in Mexico, not only for international remittances and tourism, but also for Mexican individuals and companies to reclaim their financial sovereignty and protect their wealth from inflation and the fragility of traditional financial markets," said Francis Pouliot, Founder and CEO of Bull Bitcoin.

• Corporate bitcoin holdings hit a record high in Q1 2025. According to Bitwise, public companies' adoption of Bitcoin has hit an all-time high. In Q1 2025, these firms collectively hold over 688,000 BTC, marking a 16.11% increase from the previous quarter. This amount represents 3.28% of Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply.

Source: Bitwise.

• The Bitcoin Bond Company for institutions has launched with the aim of acquiring $1 trillion in Bitcoin over 21 years. It utilizes secure, transparent, and compliant bond-like products backed by Bitcoin.
• The U.S. Senate confirmed Paul Atkins as Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). At his confirmation hearing, Atkins emphasized the need for a clear framework for digital assets. He aims to collaborate with the CFTC and Congress to address jurisdiction and rulemaking gaps, aligning with the Trump administration's goal to position the U.S. as a leader in Bitcoin and blockchain finance.
• Ethereum developer Virgil Griffith has been released from custody. Griffith, whose sentence was reduced to 56 months, is now seeking a pardon. He was initially sentenced to 63 months for allegedly violating international sanctions laws by providing technical advice on using cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology to evade sanctions during a presentation titled 'Blockchains for Peace' in North Korea.
• No-KYC exchange eXch to close down under money laundering scrutiny. The privacy-focused cryptocurrency trading platform said it will cease operations on May 1. This decision follows allegations that the platform was used by North Korea's Lazarus Group for money laundering. eXch revealed it is the subject of an active "transatlantic operation" aimed at shutting down the platform and prosecuting its team for "money laundering and terrorism."
• Blockstream combats ESP32 FUD concerning Jade signers. The company stated that after reviewing the vulnerability disclosed in early March, Jade was found to be secure. Espressif Systems, the designer of the ESP32, has since clarified that the "undocumented commands" do not constitute a "backdoor."

• Bank of America is lobbying for regulations that favor banks over tech firms in stablecoin issuance. The bank's CEO Brian Moynihan is working with groups such as the American Bankers Association to advance the issuance of a fully reserved, 1:1 backed "Bank of America coin." If successful, this could limit stablecoin efforts by non-banks like Tether, Circle, and others, reports The Block.
• Tether to back OCEAN Pool with its hashrate. "As a company committed to financial freedom and open access, we see supporting decentralization in Bitcoin mining as essential to the network’s long-term integrity," said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino.
• Bitdeer to expand its self-mining operations to navigate tariffs. The Singapore-based mining company is advancing plans to produce machines in the U.S. while reducing its mining hardware sales. This response is in light of increasing uncertainties related to U.S. trade policy, as reported by Bloomberg.
• Tether acquires $32M in Bitdeer shares. The firm has boosted its investment in Bitdeer during a wider market sell-off, with purchases in early to mid-April amounting to about $32 million, regulatory filings reveal.
• US Bitcoin miner manufacturer Auradine has raised $153 million in a Series C funding round as it expands into AI infrastructure. The round was led by StepStone Group and included participation from Maverick Silicon, Premji Invest, Samsung Catalyst Fund, Qualcomm Ventures, Mayfield, MARA Holdings, GSBackers, and other existing investors. The firm raised to over $300 million since its inception in 2022.
• Voltage has partnered with BitGo to [enable](https://www.voltage.cloud/blog/bitgo-and-voltage-team-up-to-deliver-instant-bitcoin-and-stabl

@ 34f1ddab:2ca0cf7c

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💻 Advanced Technology\ Our proprietary tools and brute-force optimization techniques maximize recovery efficiency. Regardless of how challenging your case may be, our technology is designed to give you the best chance at retrieving your crypto.

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• Bitcoin Recovery: Lost access to your Bitcoin wallet? We help recover lost wallets, private keys, and passphrases.
• Transaction Recovery: Mistakes happen — whether it’s an incorrect wallet address or a lost password, let us manage the recovery.
• Cold Wallet Restoration: If your cold wallet is failing, we can safely extract your assets and migrate them into a secure new wallet.
• Private Key Generation: Lost your private key? Our experts can help you regain control using advanced methods while ensuring your privacy.

⚠️ What We Don’t Do\ While we can handle many scenarios, some limitations exist. For instance, we cannot recover funds stored in custodial wallets or cases where there is a complete loss of four or more seed words without partial information available. We are transparent about what’s possible, so you know what to expect

# Don’t Let Lost Crypto Hold You Back!

Did you know that between 3 to 3.4 million BTC — nearly 20% of the total supply — are estimated to be permanently lost? Don’t become part of that statistic! Whether it’s due to a forgotten password, sending funds to the wrong address, or damaged drives, we can help you navigate these challenges

🛡️ Real-Time Dust Attack Protection\ Our services extend beyond recovery. We offer dust attack protection, keeping your activity anonymous and your funds secure, shielding your identity from unwanted tracking, ransomware, and phishing attempts.

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📞 Need Immediate Assistance? Connect with Us!\ For real-time support or questions, reach out to our dedicated team on:\ ✉️ Telegram: t.me/crypptrcver\ 💬 WhatsApp: +1(941)317–1821

Crypt Recver is your trusted partner in cryptocurrency recovery. Let us turn your challenges into victories. Don’t hesitate — your crypto future starts now! 🚀✨

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@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17

Como a grande maioria dos brasileiros. Eu não comecei um negócio porque “queria empreender”. Diferente disso, eu PRECISAVA para poder pagar contas e manter o básico.

Festas, openbar e camisas

Meu primeiro negócio foi na verdade um combo. Eu tinha saído do último trampo e eu gostava de festas. Então, comecei a organizar uma festa mensalmente na casa do meu pai. Eu pagava a água, energia e dava uma grana para ele. Em troca, organizava festa de sábado para domingo open bar.

A fórmula era simples. Criava o evento da festa no facebook, convidava todo mundo que conhecia. Panfletava na cidade e espalhava cartazes nos pontos de ônibus sobre a festa. E, para fechar com chave de ouro. Mulher era OFF até 20:00. Consequência? Os caras vinham e pagavam o ingresso deles e delas. Kkkkk. E, enchia…

Comecei a notar que a galera se vestia mal. E, pensei: "Porque não vestir eles?” Pimba! Comecei a desenha e confeccionar camisas para vender nas festas. E, pimba denovo! Vendeu, tudo! Fiz 2 coleções e mais algumas festas. Até o dia que um menino deu PT de tanto beber e decidi que era hora de tentar outra coisa.

Como assim a Apple não vai vender mais os carregadores?

Isso, foi durante a pandemia. A Apple decidiu vender o telefone e o cabo. E, você que lute com a fonte. Estava difícil achar dinheiro no mercado naqueles tempos e eu pensei. Vou pesquisar no google trends e validar a ideia. Caixa! Tinha mais de 80 pts de busca. Colei em SP, no Brás e comprei literalmente. Todo meu dinheiro de cabo de iphone, carregador e bateria portátil.

Fiquei com R$100 na conta. Para fazer um lanche e pagar pelo uber para voltar para casa. Chegando aqui, eu tirei foto e fiz várias copys. Anunciei no Olx, Mercado Livre e Facebook. Impulsionei os anúncios no OLX, vendi para familiares e amigos, e; vendia até para quem estava na rua. Fiz entrega de bike, a pé, de ônibus e é isso mesmo. Tem que ralar. Para queimar o resto da mercadoria. Deixei com uma loja de eletrônicos e fiz consignado. E, hora da próxima ideia.

Mulheres, doces e TPM

Meu penúltimo negócio veio depois dos cabos. Eu pesquisei na net, negócios online para começar com pouca grana. (Depois que paguei as contas do dia a dia, sobraram R$3mil). E, achei uma pesquisa mostrando que doces. Tinha baixa barreira de entrada e exigia poucos equipamentos. Eu trabalhei em restaurante por muitos anos e sabia como lucrar com aquilo. Além do mais, mulheres consomem mais doce em uma certa época do mês.

Não deu outra, convidei 2 pessoas para serem sócias. Desenvolvemos os produtos, fotografamos e fizemos as copys. Em sequência, precisávamos vender. Então, lá vamos denovo: Ifood, WPP, 99food (na época), Uber eats (na época), Elo7, famílias e amigos e; por fim começamos a vender consignado com alguns restaurantes e lojas. Foi uma época em que aprendi a prospectar clientes de todas as maneiras possíveis.

De novo, minha maior dificuldade era a locomoção para fazer entregas. Só tinha uma bike. Mas, entregávamos. Os primeiros 3 meses foram difíceis demais. Mas, rolou. No fim, nossas maiores vendas vinham de: Ifood, encomendas de festas e consignados. Mas, como nem tudo são flores. Meus dois sócios tomaram outros caminhos e abandonaram o projeto. Galera, está tudo bem com isso. Isso acontece o tempo todo. A vida muda e temos que aprender a aceitar isso. Vida que segue e fui para frente de novo.

Sobre paixões, paciência e acreditar

Estava eu comemorando meu níver de 30 anos, num misto de realizações e pouco realizado. Como assim? Sabe quando você faz um monte de coisas, mas ainda assim. Não sente que é aquilo? Pois então…

Eu amo investimentos, livros, escrever e sempre curti trocar ideia com amigos e família sobre como se desenvolver. Desde que comecei a usar a internet eu criei: Canal no youtube, páginas no IG e FB, pinterest, steemit, blog e até canal no Telegram. Mas, nunca tinha consistente sabe? Tipo assim, vou fazer isso por um ano e plantar 100 sementes aqui. Enfim, inconsistência te derruba meu amigo…Eu voltei a trabalhar com restaurantes e estava doido para mudar de área. Estava exausto de trabalhar e meu wpp não parava de tocar. Fui estudar ADM e Desenvolvimento de sistemas no Senac. Dois anos depois, formei. Consegui trabalho.

E, comecei a pensar em como criar um negócio online, escalável e multilíngue. Passei os próximos 7 meses desenhando e pensando como. Mas, tinha que dar o primeiro passo. Criei um site e fui escrevendo textos. Os primeiros 30 foram aquilo, os próximos 10 melhoraram muito e os 10 a seguir eu fiquei bem satisfeitos. Hoje, tenho o negócio que estava na cabeça desde 2023. Mas, olha o tamanho da volta que o universo me fez dar e aprender para chegar aqui hoje. Dicas? Só 3:

1. Você precisa usar a internet para fazer negócio. Em todos os negócios que falei, sempre teve algo online. Não negligencie isso.
2. Tem que aprender a vender e se vender.
3. Confia em si mesmo e faz sem medo de errar. Porque, advinha? Você vai errar! Mas, vai aprender e melhorar. Tem que persistir…

Por hoje é isso. Tamo junto!

@ dfa02707:41ca50e3

Headlines

• Twenty One Capital is set to launch with over 42,000 BTC in its treasury. This new Bitcoin-native firm, backed by Tether and SoftBank, is planned to go public via a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners and will be led by Jack Mallers, co-founder and CEO of Strike. According to a report by the Financial Times, the company aims to replicate the model of Michael Saylor with his company, MicroStrategy.
• Florida's SB 868 proposes a backdoor into encrypted platforms. The bill and its House companion have both passed through their respective committees and are headed to a full vote. If enacted, SB 868 would require social media companies to decrypt teens' private messages, ban disappearing messages, allow unrestricted parental access to private messages, and likely eliminate encryption for all minors altogether.
• Paul Atkins has officially assumed the role of the 34th Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is a return to the agency for Atkins, who previously served as an SEC Commissioner from 2002 to 2008 under the George W. Bush administration. He has committed to advancing the SEC’s mission of fostering capital formation, safeguarding investors, and ensuring fair and efficient markets.
• Solosatoshi.com has sold over 10,000 open-source miners, adding more than 10 PH of hashpower to the Bitcoin network.

"Thank you, Bitaxe community. OSMU developers, your brilliance built this. Supporters, your belief drives us. Customers, your trust powers 10,000+ miners and 10PH globally. Together, we’re decentralizing Bitcoin’s future. Last but certainly not least, thank you@skot9000 for not only creating a freedom tool, but instilling the idea into thousands of people, that Bitcoin mining can be for everyone again," said the firm on X.

• OCEAN's DATUM has found 100 blocks. "Over 65% of OCEAN’s miners are using DATUM, and that number is growing every day. This means block template construction is making its way back into the hands of the miners, which is not only the most profitable for miners on OCEAN but also one of the best things for Bitcoin," stated the mining pool.

Source: orangesurf

• Arch Labs has secured $13 million to develop "ArchVM" and integrate smart-contract functionality with Bitcoin. The funding round, valuing the company at $200 million, was led by Pantera Capital, as announced on Tuesday.
• Tesla still holds nearly $1 billion in bitcoin. According to the automaker's latest earnings report, the firm reported digital asset holdings worth $951 million as of March 31.
• The European Central Bank is pushing for amendments to the European Union's Markets in Crypto Assets legislation (MiCA), just months after its implementation. According to Politico's report on Tuesday, the ECB is concerned that U.S. support for cryptocurrency, particularly stablecoins, could cause economic harm to the 27-nation bloc.
• TABConf 2025 is scheduled to take place from October 13-16, 2025. This prominent technical Bitcoin conference is dedicated to community building, education, and developer support, and it is set to return in October. Get your tickets here.
• Kaduna Lightning Development Bootcamp. From May 14th to 17th, the Bitcoin Lightning Developer Bootcamp will take place in Kaduna, Nigeria. Thisevent offers four dynamic days of coding, learning, and networking. Organized by Africa Free Routing and supported by Btrust, Tether, and African Bitcoiners, this bootcamp is designed as a gateway for African developers eager to advance their skills in Bitcoin and Lightning development. Apply here.

Source: African Bitcoiners.

Use the tools

• Core Lightning (CLN) v25.02.2 as been released to fix a broken Docker image. The issue was caused by an SQLite version that did not support an advanced query.
• Blitz wallet v0.4.4-beta introduces several updates and improvements, including the prevention of duplicate ecash payments, fixes for background ecash invoice handling, the ability for users to send payments to BOLT12 invoices from their Liquid balance, support for Blink QR codes, a lowered minimum amount for Lightning-to-Liquid payments to 100 sats, the option to initiate a node sync via a swipe gesture on the wallet's home screen, and the introduction of opt-in or opt-out functionality for newly implemented crash analytics via settings.
• Utreexo v0.5.0, a hash-based dynamic accumulator, is now available.
• Specter v2.1.1 is now available on StartOS. "This update brings compatibility with Bitcoin Core v28 and incorporates several upstream improvements," said developer Alex71btc.
• ESP-Miner (AxeOS) v2.7.0b1 is now available for testing.
• NodeGuard v0.16.1, a treasury management solution for Lightning nodes, has been released.
• The latest stacker.news updates include prompts to add a receiving wallet when posting or making comments (for new users), an option to randomize poll choices, improved URL search, and a few other enhancements. A bug fix for territories created after 9/19/24 has been implemented to reward 70% of their revenue to owners instead of 50%.

Other stuff

• The April edition of the 256 Foundation's newsletter is now available. It includes the latest mining news, Bitcoin network health updates, project developments, and a tutorial on how to update FutureBit's Apollo 1 to the Apollo 2 software.
• Siggy47 has posted a comprehensive RoboSats guide on stacker.news.
• Learn how to run your own Nostr relay using Citrine and Cloudflare Tunnels by following this step-by-step guide by Dhalism.
• Max Guise has written a Bitkey roadmap update for April 2025.

• PlebLab has uploaded a video on how to build a Rust wallet with LDK Node by Ben Carman.

• Do you want more? Subscribe and get No Bullshit GM report straight to your mailbox and No Bullshit Bitcoin on Nostr.

• Feedback or tips? Drop it here.
• #FREESAMOURAI

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@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na antenam.net

22.05.2025 / Autor: Ana Nives Radović

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Da nema besplatnog ručka sigurno ste čuli svaki put kad bi neko poželio da naglasi da se sve na neki način plaća, iako možda tu cijenu ne primjećujemo odmah. Međutim, kada govorimo o događaju od kojeg je prošlo tačno 15 godina onda o „ručku“ ne govorimo u prenešenom smislu, već o porudžbini pice čija tržišna vrijednost iz godine u godinu dostiže iznos koji je čini najskupljom hranom koja je ikad poručena.

Tog 22. maja 2010. godine čovjek sa Floride pod imenom Laslo Hanjec potrošio je 10.000 bitcoina na dvije velike pice. U to vrijeme, ta količina bitcoina imala je tržišnu vrijednost od oko 41 dolar. Ako uzmemo u obzir da je vrijednost jedne jedinice ove digitalne valute danas nešto više od 111.000 dolara, tih 10.000 bitcoina danas bi značilo vrijednost od 1,11 milijardi dolara.

Nesvakidašnji događaj u digitalnoj i ugostiteljskoj istoriji, nastao zbog znatiželje poručioca koji je želio da se uvjeri da koristeći bitcoin može da plati nešto u stvarnom svijetu, pretvorio se u Bitcoin Pizza Day, kao podsjetnik na trenutak koji je označio prelaz bitcoina iz apstraktnog kriptografskog eksperimenta u nešto što ima stvarnu vrijednost.

Hanjec je bio znatiželjan i pitao se da li se prva, a u to vrijeme i jedina kriptovaluta može iskoristiti za kupovinu nečeg opipljivog. Objavio je ponudu na jednom forumu koja je glasila: 10.000 BTC za dvije pice. Jedan entuzijasta se javio, naručio pice iz restorana Papa John’s i ispisao zanimljivu stranicu istorije digitalne imovine.

Taj inicijalni zabilježeni finansijski dogovor dao je bitcoinu prvu široko prihvaćenu tržišnu vrijednost: 10.000 BTC za 41 dolar, čime je bitcoin napravio svoj prvi korak ka onome što danas mnogi zovu digitalnim zlatom.

Šta je zapravo bitcoin?

Bitcoin je oblik digitalnog novca koji je osmišljen da bude decentralizovan, transparentan i otporan na uticaj centralnih banaka. Kreirao ga je 2009. godine anonimni autor poznat kao Satoši Nakamoto, neposredno nakon globalne finansijske krize 2008. godine. U svojoj suštini, bitcoin je protokol, skup pravila koja sprovodi kompjuterski kod, koji omogućava korisnicima da bez posrednika sigurno razmjenjuju vrijednost putem interneta.

Osnova cijelog sistema je blockchain, distribuisana digitalna knjiga koju održavaju hiljade nezavisnih računara (tzv. čvorova) širom svijeta. Svaka transakcija se bilježi u novi „blok“, koji se potom dodaje u lanac (otud naziv „lanac blokova“, odnosno blockchain). Informacija koja se jednom upiše u blok ne može da se izbriše, niti promijeni, što omogućava više transparentnosti i više povjerenja.

Da bi blockchain mreža u kojoj se sve to odvija zadržala to svojstvo, bitcoin koristi mehanizam konsenzusa nazvan dokaz rada (proof-of-work), što znači da specijalizovani računari koji „rudare“ bitcoin rješavaju kompleksne matematičke probleme kako bi omogućili obavljanje transakcija i pouzdanost mreže.

Deflatorna priroda bitcoina

Najjednostavniji način da se razumije deflatorna priroda bitcoina je da pogledamo cijene izražene u valuti kojoj plaćamo. Sigurno ste u posljednje vrijeme uhvatili sebe da komentarišete da ono što je prije nekoliko godina koštalo 10 eura danas košta 15 ili više. Budući da to ne zapažate kada je u pitanju cijena samo određenog proizvoda ili usluge, već kao sveprisutan trend, shvatate da se radi o tome da je novac izgubio vrijednost. Na primjer, kada je riječ o euru, otkako je Evropska centralna banka počela intenzivno da doštampava novac svake godine, pa je od 2009. kada je program tzv. „kvantitativnog popuštanja“ započet euro zabilježio kumulativnu inflaciju od 42,09% zbog povećane količine sredstava u opticaju.

Međutim, kada je riječ o bitcoinu, njega nikada neće biti više od 21 milion koliko je izdato prvog dana, a to nepromjenjivo pravilo zapisano je i u njegovom kodu. Ova ograničena ponuda oštro se suprotstavlja principima koji važe kod monetarnih institucija, poput centralnih banaka, koje doštampavaju novac, često da bi povećale količinu u opticaju i tako podstakle finansijske tokove, iako novac zbog toga gubi vrijednost. Nasuprot tome, bitcoin se zadržava na iznosu od 21 milion, pa je upravo ta konačnost osnova za njegovu deflatornu prirodu i mogućnost da vremenom dobija na vrijednosti.

Naravno, ovo ne znači da je cijena bitcoina predodređena da samo raste. Ona je zapravo prilično volatilna i oscilacije su česte, posebno ukoliko, na primjer, posmatramo odnos cijena unutar jedne godine ili nekoliko mjeseci, međutim, gledano sa vremenske distance od četiri do pet godina bilo koji uporedni period od nastanka bitcoina do danas upućuje na to da je cijena u međuvremenu porasla. Taj trend će se nastaviti, tako da, kao ni kada je riječ o drugim sredstvima, poput zlata ili nafte, nema mjesta konstatacijama da je „vrijeme niskih cijena prošlo“.

Šta zapravo znači ovaj dan?

Bitcoin Pizza Day je za mnoge prilika da saznaju ponešto novo o bitcoinu, jer tada imaju priliku da o njemu čuju detalje sa raznih strana, jer kako se ovaj događaj popularizuje stvaraju se i nove prilike za učenje. Takođe, ovaj dan od 2021. obilježavaju picerije širom svijeta, u više od 400 gradova iz najmanje 75 zemalja, jer je za mnoge ovo prilika da korisnike bitcoina navedu da potroše djelić svoje imovine na nešto iz njihove ponude. Naravno, taj iznos je danasd zanemarljivo mali, a cijena jedne pice danas je otprilike 0,00021 bitcoina.

No, dok picerije širom svijeta danas na zabavan način pokušavaju da dođu do novih gostiju, ovaj dan je za mnoge vlasnike bitcoina nešto poput opomene da svoje digitalne novčiće ipak ne treba trošiti na nešto potrošno, jer je budućnost nepredvidiva. Bitcoin Pizza Day je dan kada se ideja pretvorila u valutu, kada su linije koda postale sredstvo razmjene.

Prvi let avionom trajao je svega 12 sekundi, a u poređenju sa današnjim transkontinentalnim linijama to djeluje gotovo neuporedivo i čudno, međutim, od nečega je moralo početi. Porudžbina pice plaćene bitcoinom označile su početak razmjene ove vrste, dok se, na primjer, tokom jučerašnjeg dana obim plaćanja bitcoinom premašio 23 milijarde dolara. Nauka i tehnologija nas podsjećaju na to da sve počinje malim, zanemarivim koracima.

@ dfa02707:41ca50e3

Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.

• RoboSats v0.7.7-alpha is now available!

NOTE: "This version of clients is not compatible with older versions of coordinators. Coordinators must upgrade first, make sure you don't upgrade your client while this is marked as pre-release."

• This version brings a new and improved coordinators view with reviews signed both by the robot and the coordinator, adds market price sources in coordinator profiles, shows a correct warning for canceling non-taken orders after a payment attempt, adds Uzbek sum currency, and includes package library updates for coordinators.

Source: RoboSats.

• siggy47 is writing daily RoboSats activity reviews on stacker.news. Check them out here.
• Stay up-to-date with RoboSats on Nostr.

What's new

• New coordinators view (see the picture above).
• Available coordinator reviews signed by both the robot and the coordinator.
• Coordinators now display market price sources in their profiles.

Source: RoboSats.

• Fix for wrong message on cancel button when taking an order. Users are now warned if they try to cancel a non taken order after a payment attempt.
• Uzbek sum currency now available.
• For coordinators: library updates.
• Add docker frontend (#1861).
• Add order review token (#1869).
• Add UZS migration (#1875).
• Fixed tests review (#1878).
• Nostr pubkey for Robot (#1887).

New contributors

• @hexlorn made their first contribution in #1858.
• @umk0m1qk made their first contribution in #1864.

Full Changelog: v0.7.6-alpha...v0.7.7-alpha

GitHub Repo

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Zvanični vebsajt knjige

Srpski prevod knjige "The Little Bitcoin Book"

---

Zašto je Bitkoin bitan za vašu slobodu, finansije i budućnost?

Verovatno ste čuli za Bitkoin u vestima ili da o njemu raspravljaju vaši prijatelji ili kolege. Kako to da se cena stalno menja? Da li je Bitkoin dobra investicija? Kako to uopšte ima vrednost? Zašto ljudi stalno govore o tome kao da će promeniti svet?

"Mala knjiga o Bitkoinu" govori o tome šta nije u redu sa današnjim novcem i zašto je Bitkoin izmišljen da obezbedi alternativu trenutnom sistemu. Jednostavnim rečima opisuje šta je Bitkoin, kako funkcioniše, zašto je vredan i kako utiče na individualnu slobodu i mogućnosti ljudi svuda - od Nigerije preko Filipina do Venecuele do Sjedinjenih Država. Ova knjiga takođe uključuje odeljak "Pitanja i odgovori" sa nekim od najčešće postavljanih pitanja o Bitkoinu.

Ako želite da saznate više o ovom novom obliku novca koji i dalje izaziva interesovanje i usvajanje širom sveta, onda je ova knjiga za vas.

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Asia has emerged as a powerhouse for bitcoin adoption, with diverse countries across the region embracing the world’s leading digital currency in unique ways.

From institutional investors in Singapore to grassroots movements in Indonesia, the Asian bitcoin ecosystem presents a fascinating tapestry of innovation, regulation, and community-driven initiatives.

We dive deep into the current state of bitcoin adoption across key Asian markets, providing investors with actionable insights into this dynamic region.

The Numbers: Asia’s Bitcoin Dominance

As of early 2025, over 500 million people worldwide hold some form of digital currency, with bitcoin remaining the most widely adopted digital asset. Asia stands at the forefront of this adoption wave, with the Central & Southern Asia and Oceania (CSAO) region leading the world in digital currency adoption according to Chainalysis’s 2024 Global Crypto Adoption Index.

The statistics paint a compelling picture:

• Seven of the top 20 countries in global crypto adoption are located in the CSAO region.
• India and China together comprise almost half of the world’s digital currency user base.
• Japan’s digital currency market is expected to reach 19.43 million users by the end of 2025, with a penetration rate of 15.93%.

Behind these impressive numbers lies a complex ecosystem shaped by diverse factors including regulatory environments, technological infrastructure, economic necessities, and vibrant community initiatives.

Photo Source: Chainalysis

Country-by-Country Analysis

India: The Grassroots Powerhouse

India ranks first in Chainalysis’s Global Crypto Adoption Index, with bitcoin adoption thriving particularly in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. This grassroots movement is driven primarily by:

• Financial inclusion: Bitcoin offers banking-like services to India’s large unbanked population.
• Remittance solutions: Lower fees for the significant Indian diaspora sending money home.
• Mobile wallet proliferation: India’s high smartphone penetration enables easy access to bitcoin services.

Japan: The Regulatory Pioneer

Japan has long played a significant role in bitcoin’s evolution, from hosting some of the earliest exchanges to pioneering regulatory clarity. In 2025, Japan finds itself at a fascinating crossroads:

• The Japan Financial Services Agency is considering reclassifying digital currency assets as financial products akin to stocks, potentially enhancing user protection.
• Major corporations like Metaplanet Inc. are expanding their bitcoin holdings, with plans to increase holdings by 470% to reach 10,000 BTC in 2025.
• The country boasts a thriving grassroots bitcoin community and a strong developer ecosystem.

Bitcoin adoption in Japan is uniquely balanced between institutional involvement and community enthusiasm, with initiatives like Blockstream’s Tokyo office working to promote layer-2 solutions, self-custody, and developer education.

Vietnam: The P2P Leader

Vietnam consistently ranks among the top countries for bitcoin adoption per capita. The country’s relationship with bitcoin is characterized by:

• Strong peer-to-peer (P2P) platform usage for daily transactions and remittances.
• High mobile wallet adoption driving grassroots usage.
• Bitcoin serving as a hedge against local currency fluctuations.
• Relatively favorable regulatory attitude compared to some neighboring countries.

Singapore: The Institutional Hub

Singapore has established itself as Asia’s premier institutional bitcoin destination through:

• Clear and forward-thinking regulatory frameworks, particularly the Payment Services Act.
• Growing presence of global digital currency firms including Gemini, OKX, and HashKey, which have received regulatory approvals.
• A robust financial infrastructure catering to high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors.

While Singapore’s consumer protection-focused framework restricts promotional activities and public advertising by digital currency service providers, the city-state remains a beacon for institutional bitcoin adoption in Asia.

South Korea: Retail Dominance Transitioning to Institutional

South Korea presents a fascinating case study of a market in transition:

• Retail investors currently dominate digital currency trading volume, while institutional participation significantly lags behind.
• Experts expect institutional involvement to increase, though a significant shift may not occur until around 2027.
• The local finance watchdog recently launched a crypto committee to assess permissions for corporate digital currency investors and ETFs.
• Users must access fiat-to-digital currency services through local exchanges with official banking partnerships, linking digital currency activities to legal identities.

Bitcoin Communities: The Grassroots Movements

What truly sets Asia apart in the global bitcoin landscape is the vibrant tapestry of community-driven initiatives across the region. These grassroots movements are instrumental in driving adoption from the ground up.

Bitcoin House Bali: A Community Hub

In Indonesia, the Bitcoin House Bali project exemplifies grassroots innovation. This initiative has transformed an old mining container into a vibrant hub for bitcoin education and community engagement.

Key features include:

• Free workshops (including “Bitcoin for Beginners” and “Bitcoin for Kids”).
• Developer programs including online classes, BitDevs Workshops, and Hackathons.
• A closed-loop economic system that turns bitcoin into community points.
• Merchant onboarding—from restaurants and drivers to scooter rentals and street vendors.

Bitcoin Seoul 2025: Bringing the Community Together

The upcoming Bitcoin Seoul 2025 conference (June 4-6, 2025) represents Asia’s largest bitcoin-focused gathering, bringing together global leaders, executives, and community members.

The event will feature:

• The Bitcoin Policy Summit: Seoul Edition, providing insights into regulatory trends.
• The Bitcoin Finance Forum, addressing institutional investment and treasury management.
• A Global Bitcoin Community Assembly for bitcoin grassroots and community leaders.
• Live Lightning Network payments demonstrations at the on-site Lightning Market.

This event underscores South Korea’s emerging role in the global Bitcoin ecosystem and highlights the growing institutional interest in the region.

Regulatory Landscapes: A Mixed Picture

The regulatory environment for bitcoin across Asia presents a complex and evolving picture that significantly impacts adoption patterns.

Japan’s Regulatory Evolution

Japan is considering tightening regulations on digital asset transactions by reclassifying them as financial products similar to stocks. If implemented, these changes would:

• Require issuers to disclose more detailed information on their corporate status.
• Potentially enhance user protection.
• Come into effect after June 2025, following policy direction outlines by the administration.

Current regulations in Japan are relatively digital currency-friendly, with bitcoin recognized as a legal form of payment under the Payment Services Act since 2016.

Singapore’s Balanced Approach

Singapore maintains a regulatory framework that emphasizes market stability and consumer protection, including:

• Restrictions on promoting digital services in public areas.
• The Payment Services Act that regulates digital currency exchanges.
• A general approach that supports institutional adoption while carefully managing retail exposure.

This balanced approach has helped establish Singapore as a trusted hub for bitcoin businesses and institutional investors.

South Korea’s Transitional Framework

South Korea’s regulatory landscape is in flux, with several developments impacting the bitcoin ecosystem:

• Corporate access to digital currenc

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