@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

https://youtu.be/-ne8adkjY6A

Orlando gets Bane

Memphis gets KCP, Cole Anthony, and a bunch of picks

This move makes a lot of sense. Orlando needed someone like Bane and Memphis needed to break up their core.

https://stacker.news/items/1007156

@ 0c65eba8:4a08ef9a

1. A Personal Message to Fathers

This Father's Day, I want to speak directly to the kind of man who wants to be a Professional Father, someone who takes his role as a father seriously and views the raising of the next generation as a profession. You are looking for a way to make the time you have with your son count. To do something that matters.

I am recreating something that has been largely missing from our society for hundreds of years. Something that only a few fathers will have the opportunity to experience with me. It is a 9-month journey, online and in-person, that culminates in hiking the 170km Tour du Mont Blanc with your son and a group of other fathers and sons, including my own. But it is not just about the hike. The hike is the rite of passage, an intentional trial by nature and effort, that marks your son’s ascent into the next stage of manhood, forged alongside you.

I am inviting you to join me in reclaiming something that has been lost, fatherhood in its fullest form. Not just spectating at weekend sports or spending time on video games. Not just coaching a team or paying the bills. I am talking about what I call the Professional Father, the man who sees fatherhood as his most sacred office. His role as patriarch, protector, provider, and prophet for the next generation.

2. The Crisis of Modern Fatherhood

We live in a time when the role of the father has been eroded. The industrial world pulled men out of their homes. The school system put their children into the hands of strangers. The media mocked the masculine and glorified the weak. Now, instead of turning to their fathers, boys are looking to online influencers and cultural trends for guidance on what it means to be a man, and much of what they find is either performative, misleading, or harmful.

Why? Because we have lost the essential connection that once gave the father his authority: time together. Shared experience. Shared struggle. Demonstrated competence by the father. A father’s authority does not come from his title; it comes from his presence, his wisdom, his proven ability to guide his son through the very challenges he will one day face. When that authority is absent, boys search elsewhere. And they are rarely given better that Dad.

This crooked path is not sustainable. And it is not acceptable.

3. The Rite of Passage: A Father’s Return

I am blazing a trail back for fathers. I am walking it myself with my sons, leading the way through a process most have forgotten. And I am inviting a handful of serious men to walk it with me, not to invent it, but to inherit and embody it.

This is not for everyone. Most men will not do it, not because they do not care, but because the enormity of the task feels overwhelming. Because reclaiming the full weight of fatherhood feels too big, too distant, too much. But a few will. Because a few still believe that the family is the foundation of civilization. That fathers are the lawgivers of their household. Boys become men only through the deep intellectual, emotional, and spiritual connection they build with their fathers, and, at times, with other older male relatives. Only this kind of connection can prepare a boy to cross into manhood with strength, courage, mastery and honor.

If you are that kind of man, keep reading. Because I have built this for you and your sons.

4. What This Program Delivers

This is not another educational course or summer camp. This is a comprehensive transformation, what I call a conversion, of both father and son into their next stage of development.

Fathers will go from feeling disconnected and uncertain to becoming Professional Fathers: confident, competent, and fully engaged. They will rediscover their central role as patriarchs, not just providers. They will gain tools, language, and rituals to build a sovereign family culture. They will go from reacting to their child’s needs to proactively shaping their son’s future.

Sons will go from vague boyhood to clear, emerging manhood. From confusion about their place in the world to clarity and strength. From being passively raised to actively participating in their own coming-of-age. From drifting under the influence of media and school to grounding their identity in family and father.

Together, you will forge a new bond, something deeper than what is possible through casual time together. It will be built through shared intellectual growth, emotional development, physical training, and spiritual preparation. It culminates in the Tour du Mont Blanc: a physically demanding, awe-inspiring pilgrimage that seals the transformation with struggle, beauty, and brotherhood.

This is how you raise not just a son, but the father of your grandchildren.

And this is how you become a Meta-Father: not just a man who fathers children, but a man who re-establishes the father as the central force in family legacy and civilization.

If you want more than memories, if you want meaning, this is for you.

5. The Crisis of Masculinity and Maturity

We are living in a generation where boys are not becoming men. They are stalling, emotionally, socially, and morally, in extended adolescence. Without the structure of masculine expectation, clear transitions, or an acknowledged rite of passage, they linger in boyhood long after their bodies have matured.

Our culture offers them no roadmap. They are surrounded by mixed signals, infantilizing environments, and easy dopamine. What is missing is the challenge, the clarity, and the confrontation with reality that produces maturity. Boys need more than role models, they need mentors, trials, and the ceremonial crossing into responsibility.

This program provides that. It integrates emotional regulation, the pursuit of competence, and the internalization of sovereignty. It teaches boys not just how to act like men, but how to think, speak, and carry themselves with the dignity of masculine agency.

And it does this with their fathers at their side, not just as companions, but as guides who have reclaimed their own authority and are ready to lead the way.

6. What Boys Need, and What Fathers Can Provide

Boys today are not just lacking direction, they are starved for it. They need clarity, structure, love, and challenge. They need to know where the lines are and who they can count on to hold them. And more than anything, they need to know that their father sees them, knows their heart, and is willing to lead them.

A boy becomes a man in the presence of a stronger and more mature man, one who models agency, discipline, and calm strength. If the father is absent, physically, emotionally, or spiritually, another male influence will take that role, and it may not be one the family would choose. The son does not choose whether to model after someone; he only chooses from who is available.

That is why the father's role is not optional. He is the anchor of identity, the compass of moral and practical direction, and the living law of the household. His presence shapes the boy’s sense of reality. His strength determines how secure the boy feels in exploring the world. His love gives the boy the confidence to grow without fear.

This program helps fathers return to that role, not as tyrants, but as rightful leaders. Not as distant providers, but as fully engaged patriarchs whose words carry the weight of earned wisdom and demonstrated love.

Together, father and son will build a shared framework of communication, challenge, and clarity. This is what boys need. And this is what fathers can provide.

7. What Fathers Have Lost

You cannot lead a child where you have not gone.

Most fathers have been abandoned by culture, misled by education, and weakened by guilt. They were not taught how to be men, only how to please others (mostly women), suppress their instincts, and doubt their judgment. They entered fatherhood with no map, no compass, and no tribe. They try to lead without having first been led.

This is not your fault. But it is your responsibility to address it.

The journey of fatherhood begins with reclaiming what was lost, and becoming the kind of man your son can follow. That means reconnecting with your masculine virtues, your sovereign will, and your capacity to provide not just materially, but morally and spiritually.

This program does not just train your son. It restores you to your rightful place as the Professional Father, the one who leads the household not through dominance, but through earned reverence and trust.

It gives you the tools to reforge your own agency, rebuild your confidence, and return to your family with the strength and moral clarity they need from you.

8. The Rite of Passage Program: Structure and Purpose

The Father-Son Rite of Passage Program is a 9-month immersive journey designed for fathers who are ready to reclaim their role and initiate their sons into responsible, sovereign manhood. This is not theory. This is structured transformation, deliberate, demanding, and deeply rewarding.

Fathers will engage in regular one-on-one coaching, participate in biweekly group meetings with other men on the same path, and complete personal assignments tailored to their individual growth and family context. This ensures they not only gain insight but also act on it, building the habits, relationships, and clarity their sons need.

The program culminates in a 10–14 day pilgrimage: the Tour du Mont Blanc. This is not a vacation. It is a rite of passage in the truest sense, an ancient-style crucible through nature’s beauty and hardship. Alongside their sons and other fathers, participants will face real challenge, real danger, and real discovery.

This is where theory meets practice. Where inner work meets outer trial. Where the abstract idea of manhood becomes something a boy can feel in his bones. And where fathers, too, are reborn, not just as providers or protectors, but as full participants in the sacred calling of fatherhood.

This is how legacies are started.

9. Why This Program Is Different

This is not a retreat, and it is not a weekend camp. This is a commitment, a serious, structured, and sacred passage into the next phase of your family's legacy.

I am walking this path with you. My son will be there. We are not outsourcing masculinity to strangers. We are reclaiming it, shoulder to shoulder.

This is not about leisure tourism or temporary inspiration. It is about legacy building. It is for fathers who see themselves not just as parents, but as Professional Fathers, men who understand that raising the next generation is not a hobby, but a high discipline. A sacred responsibility. A generational duty.

You will be challenged. You will be changed. And you will come away with something no book, seminar, or online course can offer: real, embodied transformation with your son by your side.

10. What Fathers Will Gain

The authority and clarity you always knew you should have, but perhaps never had passed on to you. Most men were never given the torch of fatherhood by their own fathers. They were shown fragments, but not taught the full art. Without a model to inherit or a process to follow, confidence was elusive, and competence hard-won.

This program gives you both. You will gain confidence that commands respect, sovereignty over your household and your self, and the grounded presence that only mature masculinity provides. You will learn concrete tools and activities to build emotional connection with your son, not just through words, but through shared challenges, earned respect, and meaningful rituals. You will embody the Meta-Father: the living ideal your son will grow toward. And you will plant in him the seeds of that same Meta-Fatherhood, preparing him to one day lead your grandchildren with wisdom and strength.

11. What Sons Will Gain

Your son will emerge from this program with something priceless: direction, discipline, and purpose. He will begin to form a solid foundation of masculine identity, not as an act or an imitation, but as something rooted in his life experience.

He will experience challenge, beauty, and struggle beside you. This is how a boy becomes a man,by connecting to his father in mind, heart, and body. That connection forges a sense of belonging, purpose, and confidence that no screen, school, or self-help book can provide.

Your son will come away with a lasting bond to you, to his family, and to something greater than himself. He will learn to value sovereignty, agency, and responsibility not because they are preached, but because he will have lived them.

And most importantly, he will begin his journey to manhood with his father as his guide.

12. The Tour du Mont Blanc Experience

The majesty of Mont Blanc awaits you, an awe-inspiring realm of towering snow-capped peaks, wild alpine meadows, glacial rivers, and ancient footpaths carved into the heart of Europe. It is one of the most beautiful and storied landscapes on Earth. To walk through it is to walk through a living cathedral of stone, sky, and silence. This beauty is not a luxury; it is nourishment for the soul. It elevates us. It draws out our highest thoughts. It reminds us of the greatness that lies dormant within, and calls it forth.

Then, the challenge begins: 170km of mountainous terrain. 10,000m of elevation. Real physical exertion. Shared suffering and earned triumph.

This is not just a hike, it is a crucible. Every step across those alpine passes demands strength, endurance, and commitment. Every night spent together on the trail deepens the bond between father and son. Every vista inspires reflection. Every ache becomes part of the shared memory.

It is on this path that the teachings of the previous months come alive. Lessons turn into actions. Ideas become embodied truths.

There will be songs, yes, we will sing together. There will be rituals, markers of transition, oaths of honor, and gifts exchanged to seal the moment. There will be silence, too, sacred stillness in which the weight of this journey settles into the soul.

You and your son will not return the same. You will return closer. Clearer. Changed.

Not just with new memories, but with a new legacy.

13. Program Format and Curriculum

From October 2025 to June 2026, fathers and sons will embark on a progressive, integrated curriculum that deepens month by month.

Each month introduces a core theme, virtue, responsibility, communication, emotional regulation, sovereignty, and more. These themes shape the weekly assignments and personal exercises that keep growth consistent and measurable.

Every two weeks, fathers join live group calls for teaching, discussion, and accountability. These biweekly sessions offer a blend of structured learning, peer support, and personal coaching, ensuring that no man walks alone, and no challenge goes unanswered.

Rituals mark each stage: small family-based ceremonies, shared father-son activities, and group rites performed in solidarity with other families. Through these, responsibility is internalized, bonds are forged, and the father’s role is reestablished as central and sacred.

This is not passive learning. This is an active initiation into Professional Fatherhood, where theory is tested, practice is embodied, and transformation becomes visible.

14. Who This Program Is For, and Who It Is Not

This program is for fathers who are ready to lead, men who are committed to becoming the Professional Father their sons need. If you believe your role as a father is more than just showing up, if you see it as a sacred duty to guide, shape, and initiate your son into manhood, then this is for you.

It is not for the passive. Not for the indecisive. Not for men who want to outsource this task to schools, media, or fleeting moments. It is not for those who want a quick fix, a weekend workshop, or a feel-good event.

Only 10 father-son pairs will be accepted. This is an intimate, focused, and high-commitment program. Each man must be willing to walk the path fully, to be both student and teacher, both initiator and initiate.

This program is for those who can invest, not only in time and energy, but financially as well. If you are concerned primarily with the cost, this may not be the right time for you. But if you are ready to prioritize the future of your family, this will be the most valuable investment you make.

Some fathers may not be ready yet, and that is okay. For those men, I offer an alternative: my Agency Building Program. It is designed to help men reclaim sovereignty over their lives, develop discipline, and gain the clarity and competence needed to lead. Graduates of that program are often well-prepared to join future cohorts of this rite of passage.

And because my own sons, starting with the eldest this year, will be involved in the program alongside me, I must speak personally with each father before approving participation. This is not only to ensure alignment with the mission, but to protect the integrity of the group and the influence it will have on my children. This is a high-trust endeavor. I must know that the men who join us are ready in heart, mind, and deed.

If you believe that may be you, then I invite you to book a short call with me so we can explore it together:

https://calendly.com/noahrevoy/father-son-rite-of-passage-discovery-call

If you are ready, then I welcome you. If not, then honor that, but know this: your son’s future will reflect your choice.

15. Addressing Common Objections

"I’m too busy." → No man is too busy to raise a man. This program is structured to integrate into your life, not take it over. The time invested here pays dividends in every area of your family’s future.

"It’s expensive." → Nothing is more costly than failing your legacy. This is an investment in your son, your family, and your lineage. What could be more valuable than securing the man your boy becomes?

"What if I’m not ready?" → You become ready by stepping in. Most fathers were not taught how to lead. This program is how you learn, by doing, by walking the path with your son, and by reclaiming your own authority.

"What if my son is not interested or thinks it’s embarrassing?" → Boys often resist what they need most. This is why your leadership matters. When a father leads with conviction, clarity, and love, most sons rise to meet the moment. The shared challenge and beauty of this experience overcome hesitation, and by the end, he will not want it to stop following you.

"What if we are not close enough right now?" → That is exactly what this program is designed to change. Many fathers feel a painful distance from their sons. This journey closes that gap through structured time, real conversations, and shared trial. It is not about where you are now, it is about where you

"What if my wife does not agree?" → This is a father’s decision. While it is wise to seek harmony in the household, it is not your wife’s job to turn your son into a man, you were made for that. This program does not replace your role with hers. It restores yours. Leadership in the home, especially over the development of your son into a man, is a mantle only you can bear.

16. Meet Your Guide: Who I Am and Why I Lead

I am not a guru. I am a father, a Professional Father, who lives what he teaches. I have been married for nearly 24 years and have three sons who, by the time we hike Mont Blanc, will be 12, 6, and 6 years old. My background is in sovereignty, psychology, history, and legacy. I have spent over a decade helping men and women develop stronger relationships with themselves and others, and before that, I served as a minister doing similar work. For most of my adult life, I have studied and applied the principles that build strong families, enduring legacies, and cooperative civilizations.

I bring a unique perspective: my family has recorded its relationship practices for over 450 years, practical, time-tested tools for marriage, parenting, and legacy building. I am also a senior fellow at the Natural Law Institute, a think tank dedicated to understanding the laws of nature and reality that govern human cooperation, from the household to civilization.

I am doing this not because I have mastered fatherhood, but because I am mastering it. My oldest son will walk this path with me this year, and my younger sons will follow in future years. I am building this alongside you. I am walking it with you. I am opening the way, not from ahead or above, but from beside you.

This is deeply personal. I know what is at stake. I know what it is like to want more for your son and to feel like no one ever showed you how. That is why I created this. Because if we do not do it, no one else will. And because there is no more sacred role than to lead your son into manhood by becoming the man you were meant to be.

Join me.

17. Your Invitation to Take the Next Step

No obligation. Just a conversation. This is not for everyone, but it may be for you. If what you have read resonates with your heart and stirs your spirit, I invite you to take the next step.

Click below to book a short discovery call with me. We will discuss your goals, your son’s needs, and whether this program is the right fit.

https://calendly.com/noahrevoy/father-son-rite-of-passage-discovery-call

We do not have time to waste, and neither do our sons.

18. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

How much does it cost? Because each father-son pair is unique and I need to understand your situation and goals, we do not discuss price until we have had a short call. You will, however, be responsible for your own flights to and from Europe. Everything else, from lodging and trail logistics to food and materials, is included in the program fee.

Is this climbing Mont Blanc? No, this is not a mountain climbing expedition. We will hike the Tour du Mont Blanc, a well-established, multi-day trekking circuit around the Mont Blanc massif. It is challenging, beautiful, and safe for determined beginners with reasonable fitness. No technical climbing is involved.

What if I am not in good shape? The hiking portion is demanding, but not extreme. You will have several months to prepare, and the program includes structured guidance on developing the physical readiness needed for success. Our aim is to help both you and your son build the stamina, strength, and resilience required, not just to complete the route, but to grow from it. Many ordinary men and boys complete this trail each year. You will not be alone. We will prepare together, step by step, so that by the time we set foot on the trail, you are ready in body as well as in spirit.

Is there spiritual or religious content? The program is deeply meaningful and touches on spiritual development, but it is not religious. It is compatible with a variety of beliefs and focuses on universal principles of virtue, sovereignty, and legacy. As part of the identity-building process, fathers will be encouraged to define what spirituality means within their family and to guide their sons in understanding and embodying that spiritual vision. This process honors your role as the spiritual head of your family and leaves room for diversity in expression, rooted in the shared pursuit of meaning and legacy.

What if my schedule is unpredictable? We designed the program to fit within a professional father’s life. Weekly tasks are manageable, and calls are recorded. You will have flexibility, and accountability.

What age should my son be? The ideal age range is 11–14. Old enough to rise to the challenge. Young enough to still be impressionable. If your son is slightly outside this range, we can discuss suitability during your call.

What if I have multiple sons? If you have more than one son within this age range, you are welcome to bring them all. The program is designed to accommodate multiple sons, allowing each of them to experience this rite of passage alongside their father and one another. Each will go through the full process as an individual participant, while also benefiting from the presence and camaraderie of their siblings. This creates an even deeper family legacy and strengthens bonds between brothers as well as between father and sons.

@ beef3d4d:479b72bc

Costantino e il solidus

Quando Costantino il Grande prese in mano le redini dell'impero, ne risollevò le sorti adottando riforme economiche lungimiranti. Tra gli impegni assunti, il più importante fu quello di mantenere il solidus a 4,5 grammi d'oro senza tagli o svalutazioni, coniandolo in grandi quantità a partire dal 312 d.C.. Spostò poi la capitale verso est, a Bisanzio, nel punto di incontro tra Asia ed Europa, dando vita all'Impero Romano d'Oriente, che adottò il solidus come moneta.

Mentre Roma continuava a deteriorarsi economicamente, socialmente e culturalmente, crollando infine nel 476 d.C., Bisanzio, poi rinominata Costantinopoli, sopravvisse per quasi 1200 anni, e il solidus divenne la moneta più longeva e accettata della storia.

Il nome Bisanzio vuole quindi essere un omaggio alla saggezza di Costantino e celebrare l’unica moneta nella storia dell’umanità capace di durare oltre un millennio. Un esempio ed un auspicio per la Bitcoin, moneta di oro digitale che ci accompagnerà per un lunghissimo tempo.

\ Vedi anche: Monetazione bizantina su Wikipedia.

Il problema dei generali bizantini

Il termine Bitcoin soffre di un’ambiguità semantica: con lo stesso termine si indicano due cose ben diverse tra loro: il protocollo di comunicazione e la moneta digitale costruita su di esso. Bitcoin inteso come protocollo rappresenta la prima soluzione a un problema informatico, centrale per il funzionamento di sistemi distribuiti, denominato problema dei generali bizantini, formulato nel 1982 e che e’ rimasto irrisolto per decenni.

La sua formulazione e’ tipicamente la seguente:

> Diverse divisioni dell’esercito bizantino, ciascuna guidata da un generale, sono accampate in posizioni strategiche attorno a una città nemica e dovono condividere una strategia di attacco coordinato per poter sopraffare il nemico. Le divisioni possono comunicare solo mediante messaggeri al fine di coordinare l’attacco decisivo. Il terreno impedisce alle divisioni bizantine di comunicare a distanza e queste possono comunicare solo tramite dei messaggeri. Come possono le varie divisioni accordarsi per un attacco congiunto sapendo che i messaggeri che inviano potrebbero essere catturati dal nemico, o che alcuni generali potrebbero addirittura tradire e mandare messaggeri con ordini sbagliati?

Il problema che devono risolvere i generali bizantini è lo stesso che affligge i sistemi di elaborazione distribuiti. Come raggiungere un consenso su una rete distribuita in cui alcuni nodi che la costituiscono possono essere difettosi o corrotti?

Il protocollo Bitcoin offre una soluzione a questo problema introducendo il concetto di “prova di lavoro” (proof of work) e della “catena di blocchi” (blockchain). E quindi, nuovamente, il nome Bisanzio si collega a Bitcoin ed alla principale innovazione tecnologica da esso introdotta.

Vedi anche: Byzantine fault su Wikipedia.

PS

Come resistere poi alla disponibilità del dominio internet bisanz.io? :)

@ 91117f2b:111207d6

The debate about the strongest superhero between Marvel and DC has been ongoing for decades. Here's a breakdown of the top contenders:

Top 3 Strongest Marvel Heroes:

• Thor: As the Asgardian God of Thunder, Thor possesses formidable strength, durability, and control over elements like lightning and storms. His mastery over Mjolnir, his enchanted hammer, makes him a force to be reckoned with.

• Silver Surfer: With his Power Cosmic, Silver Surfer wields immense energy manipulation abilities, super strength, and speed. He's a formidable opponent in the Marvel universe.

• Thanos: As a powerful Eternal with Deviant genes, Thanos possesses extraordinary strength, durability, and regenerative abilities. His cosmic energy manipulation and telepathic skills make him nearly unbeatable.

Top 3 Strongest DC Heroes:

• Superman: With his Kryptonian origin, Superman's abilities include immense strength, speed, invulnerability, and sensory powers like heat vision and X-ray vision.

• Spectre: As the physical embodiment of the Wrath of God, Spectre has near-omnipotent power levels, manipulating time, space, matter, and energy on a cosmic scale.

• Doctor Manhattan: With his ability to perceive and manipulate reality, Doctor Manhattan's powers are unparalleled. He can alter the course of history and disintegrate foes with a mere thought.

The Strongest of Them All

According to recent rankings, the One Above All from Marvel takes the top spot as the most powerful character, surpassing even the likes of Spectre and Doctor Manhattan. The One Above All's omnipotent nature and role as the creator of the Marvel multiverse solidify its position as the ultimate authority ¹.

Ultimately, determining the strongest superhero between Marvel and DC is subjective and depends on the context of the story or battle. Both universes boast an array of formidable characters, each with unique abilities and strengths. In other words the strongest, and in a death match depends on the character, powers and the story context. But in all DC is said to be the strongest in a group fight of both MARVEL and DC.

@ f3873798:24b3f2f3

Muito se fala sobre racismo no Brasil. A mídia, os políticos e os intelectuais engajados repetem discursos antirracistas, promovem campanhas e ergueram bandeiras pela igualdade. No entanto, existe uma hipocrisia gritante quando olhamos para a realidade dos povos indígenas no país.

No Brasil, o indígena ainda é, juridicamente, tratado como incapaz de decidir por si mesmo, sendo suas terras consideradas propriedade da União. Isso significa, na prática, que tudo o que diz respeito à sua cultura, território e desenvolvimento precisa do “amém” do Estado. É um tipo de tutela que remete aos tempos coloniais, onde os “civilizados” decidiam o que era melhor para os “selvagens”.

O mais engraçado e trágico deste fato, é que não há nenhum movimento midiático que aborda sobre a existência absurda deste tipo de regimento jurídico, não há influenciar não há atores e atrizes da Globo, nem cantores que questione e lance a pauta

Como falar em fim da escravidão ou combate ao racismo estrutural, se ainda hoje tratamos povos inteiros como se fossem incapazes de autodeterminação?

Enquanto isso, o governo federal, representado atualmente por figuras como “Tio Lule”, negocia e entrega terras indígenas para interesses geopolíticos, sustentando ditaduras e alianças internacionais, enquanto os próprios povos originários ficam à margem do desenvolvimento econômico.

Recursos como açaí, cupuaçu, babaçu e muitos outros produtos amazônicos serão explorados por empresas estrangeiras, que lucrarão intensamente, sem que as comunidades locais tenham condições mínimas de acesso aos meios de produção ou ao mercado. Isso destrói a economia regional, perpetua a dependência e impede que o verdadeiro protagonismo indígena aconteça.

Um ciclo que se repete: a história da borracha

O que está em curso não é novidade. É uma repetição histórica. Basta lembrar do ciclo da borracha, quando os ingleses levaram sementes de seringueira da Amazônia para plantar na Ásia, quebrando o monopólio brasileiro e afundando a economia da região Norte, que até hoje carrega as marcas desse roubo histórico.

Agora, a história se repete, mas com outros nomes e produtos — e com o apoio explícito do Estado brasileiro.

@ a3c6f928:d45494fb

We live in a world that worships productivity and glorifies the grind. Rest is often seen as weakness, laziness, or a luxury you must earn. But true freedom includes the right to pause—to exhale, to be still, to exist without proving. Choosing rest isn’t stepping back—it’s stepping into wholeness.

The Lie of Endless Motion

We’re taught that to be worthy, we must be busy. We keep moving, not because we’re always inspired—but because we’re afraid of what stillness might reveal. But you are not a machine. You are a soul. And your value is not tied to output.

Why Rest Takes Courage

It means trusting that you’re enough—even when you’re doing nothing

It challenges the belief that busyness equals importance

It requires facing emotions we often outrun

It invites us to slow down in a world that keeps speeding up

Signs You Need Rest

Constant fatigue or irritability

Feeling disconnected from joy or purpose

Difficulty making decisions or being present

Losing the ability to celebrate wins

Reclaiming Your Right to Pause

1. Redefine Rest: Rest isn’t failure. It’s fuel.

2. Listen to Your Body: If it’s whispering, don’t wait for it to scream.

3. Release Guilt: Rest is not a reward. It’s a requirement.

4. Schedule Silence: Make time for nothing. Guard it like gold.

5. Celebrate Stillness: Let rest be sacred—not secret.

Why This Freedom Matters

Rest gives you back to yourself. It reconnects you to your wisdom, creativity, and humanity. In stillness, the truth becomes clear. In quiet, the next step finds you.

---

“You don’t need to earn your right to breathe. You already belong here.”

Choose rest. Claim space. That, too, is liberation.

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

Ten years in Bitcoin can feel like an eternity. Just ask Sergej Kotliar, Founder and CEO of Bitrefill, who recently celebrated a decade of turning Bitcoin into something you can actually use in your everyday life.

“We started Bitrefill back in 2014,” Sergej reflects, thinking back to the early excitement around Bitcoin.

“The promise of internet money as a workaround to how cumbersome money was online motivated me. Imagine sending money as easily as sending an email. That’s still the vision driving us today.”

Bitrefill has evolved from a straightforward gift card provider into a full-fledged e-commerce powerhouse, allowing Bitcoiners to buy gift cards, eSIMs, mobile top-ups, and even prepaid debit cards.

From Netflix binges and Uber rides to topping up your phone in the middle of nowhere, Bitrefill supports more than 10,000 brands and over 900 phone carriers in more than 170 countries.

check out all the products and services at www.bitrefill.com

One challenge Sergej has navigated successfully is steering clear of hype-driven pitfalls. “We’ve always been a little bit better at building actual usage than at building hype,” he explains.

Instead of chasing every altcoin trend or speculative frenzy, Bitrefill has focused on the real-world, day-to-day use of bitcoin.

“The biggest challenge has always been finding the actual users of Bitcoin, not investors, but the ones who really want to use bitcoin in their everyday lives,” he emphasizes.

Bitrefill, he says proudly, has become the starting point for many users looking to spend bitcoin seamlessly.

“I think that people that use bitcoin transactionally and are looking to buy something with their coins. Very often, their customer journey starts with Bitrefill.”

Sergej isn’t shy about critiquing popular Bitcoin memes either. One particularly notable example is the “two S-curves” chart suggesting bitcoin first serves as a store of value, then as a medium of exchange.

“It’s maybe my least favorite chart,” Sergej laughs.

Bitcoin adoption curves — Source

While the chart lacks empirical data, notably missing any values on the y-axis, it does visualize a conceptual framework that many in the Bitcoin community find compelling.

The illustration suggests a natural progression where Bitcoin’s adoption follows two sequential S-curves:

first establishing itself as a store of value (the yellow curve peaking around 2029), followed by widespread adoption as a medium of exchange (the green curve peaking around 2037).

Despite its speculative nature, some argue this visualization effectively communicates the potential evolutionary path that many Bitcoiners envision, even if it wasn’t created with rigorous technical analysis.

What makes the Bitcoin ecosystem truly remarkable though is that builders like Sergej and his team at Bitrefill aren’t waiting for theoretical adoption curves to play out. They’re actively accelerating them.

By creating practical solutions for everyday Bitcoin transactions now, Bitrefill is working towards pulling that “medium of exchange” S-curve forward.

They aim to demonstrate that Bitcoin’s utility doesn’t have to follow a delayed timeline where store of value comes first.

Indeed, Sergej sees a more nuanced reality: Bitcoin serves different purposes for different people, simultaneously.

“There’s different people that use bitcoin for different things, and some want to invest in it and some use it as a tool,” Sergej clarifies.

“You can’t say that one of them is better than the other… it just is. Different people will use the same thing and they engage in the same market with different purposes.”

The Bitrefill philosophy is simple: practicality over hype. “Selling bitcoin to people is clearly a much bigger business than letting people shop with bitcoin,” Sergej acknowledges candidly.

Yet Bitrefill stands proudly as a market leader by volume for transactional bitcoin use. When YouTube travelers share their global adventures “living on bitcoin,” it’s Bitrefill powering most of those purchases. He notes with pride:

“If you watch these YouTubers ‘I spent a month traveling the world living on Bitcoin,’ there’s been quite a few of those… around 50 to 80 [percent], that a good chunk of their bitcoin usage ends up being with Bitrefill.”

And Bitrefill is not done innovating. Recently, they introduced the Bitrefill reloadable Visa card in Europe, designed for ease of use. Sergej explains:

“It’s a regulated product, you need to have an account and go through KYC and all of that, but once you have it, it’s a very simple straightforward no bulls*** method.

“you send in your bitcoin, Lightning works, and then you can just go and blip and pay, and then you don’t have to think about anything.”

Bitrefill offers reloadable Visa cards

To promote it, they’ve even been hiring people specifically to travel around Europe spending bitcoin and documenting the journey.

“We put up these ads and we hire someone and then we record them having the best day of their life spending money,” he says.

While acknowledging it’s partly a marketing stunt, he adds, “Paying some of our customers instead to spend the day having a blast and then record it and make content is a better choice than traditional advertising.”

Bitrefill on X

But Sergej has his eyes firmly on an even more futuristic horizon: a world where robots pay each other seamlessly.

“We’ve built an online monetary system that discriminates against bots because they’re usually associated with fraud,” Sergej notes.

“But soon, we’ll rely on AI to shop automatically for us. Having a fraud-free online payment method like Bitcoin could revolutionize how robotic agents transact.”

“In a world where everybody has a bunch of agents being robotic secretaries and so on, and given the fact that online commerce is currently designed specifically to keep out robots… I think there’s a big opportunity there,” he explains.

“Having an online payment method that is fraud-free should in theory be very useful for a world in which shopping happens automatically, for example, or how a robot will pay other robots.”

The intersection of how AI will leverage Bitcoin is a fascinating rabbit hole and discussion that is playing out in real time.

Sergej recommends Daniel Suarez’s novel “Daemon” for those intrigued by the potential (and risks) of AI-driven transactions.

“There’s tremendous opportunity here,” he teases, “and it’s definitely something we’re actively exploring at Bitrefill.”

Asked what he’d ask Satoshi Nakamoto if given the chance, Sergej pauses briefly. “I would ask him to tell me the story of how he left the space,” he finally answers.

Given Sergej’s decade-long journey with Bitrefill, his curiosity about Bitcoin’s creator’s departure feels particularly fitting.

Ten years is a long time in Bitcoin, but clearly, Sergej Kotliar and Bitrefill are just getting started.

@ 41959693:3888319c

Überblick über die Anthologie

Die Anthologie „365 Tage Frieden“, herausgegeben von Rüdiger Heins und Michael Landgraf, erschien 2025 im Verlag EDITION MAYA. In diesem Werk haben über 100 Autoren ihre Gedanken zum Frieden geäußert und zeigen dabei thematisch wie stilistisch, welche Vielfalt und Komplexität unter diesem Begriff vereint werden kann.

Diese Buchbesprechung geht nicht auf einzelne Beiträge ein, sondern betrachtet die Zusammenstellung und Gesamtwirkung der Texte. Jedem Tag des Jahres wurde ein Text zugeordnet, wobei es keine feste Abgrenzung oder Reihenfolge von Lyrik und Prosa gibt. Das Aufschlagen einer neuen Seite bzw. eines neuen Tages ist stets eine Überraschung, ein Wunder, ähnlich dem Frieden wie einige Autoren meinen.

Die Stimmen der Autoren erreichen den Leser dabei nicht nur aus dem deutschsprachigen Raum, sondern international und als Querschnitt aus unterschiedlicher Perspektiven, Lebensweisen, Erfahrungen, Ängsten und Hoffnungen. Dies beginnt bereits bei der Definition des „Friedens“. Ist es das Schweigen der Waffen; die erbauliche Koexistenz? Ist es die Stille, die in der Andacht der Natur gefunden wird? Ist es innere Gelassenheit? Die thematische Inhomogenität der Texte kann keine klare Antwort finden – doch in dieser Offenheit liegt auch der Reiz, die vermeintlich kleine Gedankenwelt des in der Moderne gehetzt-gestressten Normalbürgers ebenso zu akzeptieren wie die innere Ruhe eines System-Aussteigers, der im Glauben steht, sich den großen Fragen des Universums zu widmen.

Doch zurück fällt das Gros der Texte unabhängig davon immer wieder auf die formelhafte Beschwörung von Harmonie, Liebe und Freiheit und der Wunsch nach Verständnis, Verständigung und einer sicheren Zukunft. Dieser ständige Rückgriff wirkt nicht ermüdend oder altbacken, nicht mit der Gewissheit im Hinterkopf, wie kostbar und leicht zerbrechlich der Frieden ist. Im Vorwort des Buches berichtet Michael Landgraf beispielsweise in einem kurzen historischen Abriss vom aufgezwungenen römischen Frieden über den dreißigjährigen Krieg bis zu den völkerrechtswidrigen Kriegen der Gegenwart. Im Nachwort erinnert Uli Rothfuss daran, welche Aufgabe gerade Autoren in solchen Zeiten zufällt und verstärkt die Erkenntnis, dass Frieden eine Leistung ist, an der alle mitwirken können.

Stil und Wirkung

Die Anthologie stützt sich auf das Abwechslungsreichtum der Beiträge: Hier überwiegen vor allem die lyrischen Werke und Prosagedichte. Es gibt auch vereinzelte Prosatexte, welche aber i. d. R. in ihrer Länge drei Seiten nicht überschreiten. Sprache wie Gattung sind vielfältig: nüchterner Essay, phonetische Sprachspiele, Aphorismen und Akrosticha, von ernst bis augenzwinkernd. Die Gedichte sind überwiegend reimlos und ohne Metrik, selten lösen sie sich ganz vom Schema klassischer Typografie und spielen so mit dem Betrachter. Immer wieder finden sich direkte und indirekte Zitate, die religiösen und philosophischen Schriften entstammen oder Persönlichkeiten zuzuordnen sind, welche sich als Aufklärer, Humanisten und Menschenrechtler einen Namen gemacht haben.

Thematisch sprechen die Autoren sich nicht nur für den Frieden aus, sondern illustrieren zum Teil auch verbal brutal die Schrecken des Krieges, zeigen die Zerstörung, den Schmerz, die Fremde und Einsamkeit. Wir erfahren von Hass, gezüchtet und blühend in den Rabatten. In einem Beitrag heißt es: „Da sah ich das Spiel der Liebe Arm in Arm mit den Drogen zum Dinner flanieren.“

Die Poesie soll uns mahnend im Gedächtnis bleiben und all die Bandbreite fassen; die Sicherheit des Friedens ebenso wie die Verzweiflung über die Sinnlosigkeit des Tötens. Diese Unnatürlichkeit, die uns als fühlende Wesen eigentlich fassungslos hinterlassen sollte, machen die Autoren durch ihre Sprache sichtbar: „Ich habe über den Frieden schreiben wollen, und dann verbrannte ich mich an Grablichtern.“

Fazit: Wie diese Anthologie helfen kann

„365 Tage Frieden“ ist nicht dafür geschrieben, sie wie ein gewöhnliches Buch von vorn bis hinten durchzublättern. Durch ihre Vielstimmigkeit soll sie Hoffnung wecken und mit dem Konzept, jeden Tag einen anderen Text vor sich zu haben, bindet sich der Leser an ein Stück Kontinuität.

Wer es sich zum Ritual machen möchte, jeden Tag einen Moment inne zu halten und einen der kleinen Friedenstexte zu lesen, wird gewiss die Möglichkeit finden, mit Vertrauen in die Zukunft zu blicken und sich gegen Angst zu wappnen. Die auch in zahlreichen Texten beschworenen Schrecken sollen dabei die Wichtigkeit des Friedens verdeutlichen und verschaffen der Reise durch das Jahr bzw. durch das Buch thematische und stilistische Abwechslung.

Der Wunsch nach Frieden und Versöhnung bleibt zeitlos, im Studium der Geschichte finden sich aber markante Punkte und Persönlichkeiten, die wir immer mit den großen Konflikten der Menschheit verbinden. Allgemeine, vergangene wie aktuelle Auseinandersetzungen, z. B. im Gaza-Streifen oder im Ukraine-Krieg kommen zur Ansprache, ebenso wie beispielsweise momentane Entwicklungen in den USA.

Wer dem Frieden eine Stimme geben möchte, kann durch dieses Buch seine Überzeugung stärken und die Stimmbänder emotional wie intellektuell trainieren. Die Schicksale und Beobachtungen der Autoren zeigen, dass wir fortwährend Fürsprecher für eine gemeinsame Zukunft brauchen werden.

---

365 Tage Frieden

Hrsg. Rüdiger Heins und Michael Landgraf

Verlag EDITION MAYA, 2025

ISBN: 978-3-930758-95-1

---

Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben.

Not yet on Nostr and want the full experience? Easy onboarding via Start.

Artikel findet man auch auf Telegram unter:

https://t.me/pareto_artikel

https://t.me/friedenstaube_artikel

@ e97aaffa:2ebd765d

O mercado imobiliário português está a viver uma enorme bolha. É tão grave, está se tornando mais que uma crise de habitação, mas sim uma crise geracional. Os jovens portugueses não conseguem comprar casa, acabam por adiar indefinidamente a criação da família ou ter filhos, ou então a solução mais fácil é emigrar. Esta crise está a condenar a gerações mais novas e sem os mais novos, condenamos o futuro do país.

Problema

A origem do problema é o excesso de procura/demanda, Portugal ficou na moda, o turismo cresceu exponencialmente, quase diariamente são inaugurados novos hotéis nos centros das cidades e também houve um forte crescimento Alojamento Local(Airbnb). Tudo isto removeu muitas casas do mercado.

Além disso, Portugal tornou-se num destino para aposentados de outros países, sobretudo do norte da Europa e de nómadas digitais, que têm um poder de compra muito elevado, muito superior aos locais.

Para complicar ainda mais, nos últimos 5 anos houve uma imigração descontrolada, em plena crise de habitação, a população aumentou 20%. Com tanta gente nova, onde vai morar tanta gente?

Todos os portugueses, sobretudo nos grandes centros, conhecem casos de casas sobrelotadas, 10 ou 20 ou 30 pessoas a viver na mesma casa. É desumano, é uma escravatura moderna. Depois estas pessoas fazem concorrência desleal, porque eles podem pagar rendas de casas altas, o custo é dividido por 20 pessoas, enquanto os jovens casais portugueses não conseguem pagar.

Não existe um único problema, é uma soma de vários problemas, que gera uma enorme bolha.

Oferta

Tudo isto resultou num aumento da procura por habitação, mas como em tudo na economia, sempre que existe um aumento da procura, posteriormente o mercado ajusta-se, com o aumento da oferta, só que isso não está a acontecer.

A oferta de nova habitação é extremamente baixa, é insuficiente para o volume da procura. Até parece estranho, se o preço das casas estão muito elevadas, porque razão os promotores imobiliários não constroem mais?

Aqui está a razão da crise da habitação do mercado português, parece um problema sem solução.

A burocracia, a falta de terrenos, os impostos altos, falta de trabalhadores, tudo isto contribui para a crise na oferta, mas estes problemas sempre existiram em Portugal, não é uma coisa de hoje. Há 15 anos, mesmo com esses mesmo problemas, o mercado florescia, claramente dificultava mas não foram um entrave.

A meu ver, o problema está no financiamento.

Até à crise do subprime, os promotores imobiliários financiavam-se, quase em exclusividade na banca, com o juro muito baixo. Durante a crise, os casos mais problemáticos de crédito malparado foram de promotoras imobiliárias e de empresas de construção civil.

A crise do subprime e posteriormente a crise das dívidas soberanas, levou a UE a criar novas regras bancárias, onde criou muitas restrições ao acesso ao crédito por parte das empresas. Essas novas regras, que limitou o acesso ao crédito, provocaram uma alteração no modelo de financiamento das promotoras imobiliárias. Em vez de se financiarem na banca, os promotores vendiam primeiro as casas, antes de as construir. As promotoras recebiam parte do dinheiro e com esse dinheiro, financiavam a obra.

O modelo funcionou até ao pós pandemia, a impressão de dinheiros por parte dos governos foi monstruosa, criando uma forte inflação. Essa inflação provocou uma forte subida de preço nos materiais de construção e na mão de obra. Como as promotoras venderam as casas anteriormente, o valor que venderam as casas não foi suficiente para cobrir os novos custos da construção. Este problema provocado pela inflação, não afetou apenas o imobiliário, mas sim toda a economia, foram milhares de obras, por todo o país que não foram concluídas, as empresas faliram.

Este problema de financiamento, afecta sobretudo o mercado imobiliário da classe média, onde o custo é mais controlado, onde as empresas têm uma menor margem de lucro, o mínimo erro pode provocar uma falência. Por esse motivo, mas empresas de construção estão a preferir construir, o imobiliário de luxo, onde a margem de lucro é superior, minimiza a margem de erro. Mas o grande problema, é que falta habitação para a classe média.

A inflação é um grande problema, gera muita instabilidade nas empresas, torna-se imprevisível fazer um orçamento. Se a inflação é um forte contribuidor para o problema da habitação em Portugal e em breve teremos mais uma emissão massiva de novo dinheiro, por parte do BCE, parece um problema sem solução. As empresas terão que arranjar um novo método de financiamento, ou adaptar-se à inflação. Uma coisa é quase certa, na próxima década vamos ter alta inflação, porque é a única maneira para evitar o colapso dos governos, devido às enormes dívidas soberanas.

Procura/demanda

A resolução do problema do aumento da oferta é tão complexo, os governos vão optar pelo caminho mais fácil e populista, atacar a procura.

Nos próximos anos, os governos vão aprovar medidas mais autoritárias e antidemocráticas para minimizar o problema. Medidas como impedir os estrangeiros ou não residentes de adquirirem casas, impostos muito altos para 2° habitação, para forçar a venda ou o arrendamento, os Airbnb também serão um alvo.

Em suma, quem tiver uma casa como reserva de valor, para fugir à inflação, será declarada persona non grata.

Fix the money, Fix the world!

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

hey

@ a19caaa8:88985eaf

NostrをXのように使い始めて3か月が経った。最初は「ぷ　プロトコル？　ブロックチェーン？サーバー？　そもそも、ギットハブって？？」って謎だらけで、それでも利用できてしまうから「使えちゃって大丈夫かな」とすら思っていたけど、いちユーザーながら少しずつわかることが増えてきたから、この3か月間で覚えたこととかできるようになったことを、備忘録も兼ねてまとめてみる。といっても過去ツイ（便宜上）を集めてきただけだけど。初心を忘れたくない！！

---

• PCで始めて、スマホは後だったんだろうな nostr:note1q8t0spfhg9dc4h590jedd00a5pag5j44tv0vzu55004q8qjw7fkscecvkz

• iPhoneからNostore(拡張機能(NIP-??))を使ってSafariでlumilumiにログイン nostr:note1egt7y4a8wulu6kex40z0zqtgls0r9ups0q4npyrlmgd3f2swrcysrskp42 nostr:note15gjqzpnevft2h6ywlz2hzacsk6emlna5lwechcpwkx5n6fq8gs9qprfh6v ↑Damusをdisるな
  nostr:note1cn4aspxthcysjgwhyd3wwr6slsz57anwn2ep3th05lpa0yag6xrqm8x3lh やかましい　※用語解説：Nostrクライアントなどの名前です

• Nostore: 拡張機能(の、説明のscrapbox)
• nostter: https://nostter.app/about
• damus(for iOS): https://damus.io/
• lumilumi: https://lumilumi.app/about
• Rabbit(拡張機能必須): https://rabbit.syusui.net/

---

• 出会い nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqv33pxtldvmmdntqhv269r56zjadmhalpp660h3yc6gj8gxpuexvqyxhwumn8ghj77tpvf6jumt9qyghwumn8ghj7u3wddhk56tjvyhxjmcpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqqyz9k4uamtpsy9rtfh4dpxez0n8vr7tufttz5x5v9j5vd3t76kapjwxk245u nostr:note10e6flvadpyfshtnplfnc83dunzjrgl4fl0uzrw70xt3ulf0nv2yqm4qjfa nostr:note1wwchrc7vz8fcp2jrknms5ascup9eux9fkd89jxhqy6d46mkr06ssmgrjhk ↓続き

• 3sats (zap)(NIP-?? kind:??) nostr:nevent1qqsw9sfvmaqy6ngvl98drg93e7sy08kfu2y4tuyj8m2mleftvcx5mqc8uyq3m nostr:note1zzs7qfemq7qaekxv0qjea24t6k4kvlla0m9lusep2ce38tef8gjqfgv7zu nostr:nevent1qqsz8m0c5drajst00x92uc8pjwxa40nd5hmzxu4vn3yhuzjkaqmk4fqa4lvkl nostr:note106n902n66lsfxck4fsu9dqkwmelnp06qqx96nzyqvp89c9v28apqzjcflw (急な意思表示)

  たゃ仕事中に熟考

• nostr:note1fj5mmtsk0nh0e23hez2dm4unweklrypm6s6n9ajwaug574dg7pqq8phvav nostr:note1wk0ugra9pyv0y0rmpql6sjgsavu634x53f4v4jztqluq02awxwhql8d8mf nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzq2aj4wlutzft00dg77x4x6pdjy7vnfzxk30pry5lpy6a3l0uks9aqyxhwumn8ghj77tpvf6jumt9qqsyt4yh934z6fd324z5hljwlx74nndfwetu04lnu8wcj0pkhkqlppqwpsmue ⚡3satsくれました

• ステータス　NIP-??kind:30315 nostr:note1p836vncvcxfvkqmpggxzf53q6kywxn443w2hytydr7pdvrca835s83nd2u nostr:nevent1qqsdu2mf3d5am8hpjj432yf0qmpfxuwy50pv9rx6q7pryz0axnj44dg0d7auc nostr:nevent1qqsyaypjm0a99g7626r28ct97jhjvt4kk4vyv63fphdz8guhsdtevsg4yvvhr nostr:nevent1qqswea28tdayxe67axzxmwjfc4jq664phrep82zhveg8f5c0nfd06mgwt0taw
  nostr:nevent1qqsqkt8pgpchqphgvv8hd6lxfv4ylx3xtu76x2psj7asm6z846amy3c3w2s2z nostr:note1657tlek0uulr5xa3jqc2sj2l0lm24q79m0984xhm9tnzyy9nsrksynxl6y みんなやさしすぎる　おｋじゃないねん　みんなありがとうございます
• バッジ　kind:?? nostr:nevent1qqst45zcjha92jy0raun59lm05haw24rpjpw6njae93qfyasgxppmjchuq2c0 nostr:nevent1qqstvtx67c74xztstc9hze62h25saycr2ktrkwknevkhy8glzf0g78sqge3fu こいつbotなんヤバい
  nostr:nevent1qqsv6k54yysjdrfpxxtlxhfuh56mhslx63xwfncfvvg8a8vug4az4vstjyey6 nostr:nevent1qqspgur97rvwtry6t9nc6gjm9p8taw2563u3lgqn4p32e2gmqe30xxqwz9d90 nostr:note15shchwfllja7k9nd428a7ts7xf0ggefwllk7rv6qq3guuztjvcfs80pe03
• カスタム絵文字(いっぱいある)(kind10030(使うやつ),kind30030(仕切り板みたいな)) nostr:note16qkqfhezksjxrkk5z4vca8qs42fr8z9awvny39fytl73gty64nrs738g7c nostr:note1xrrer5ayqg3meskga2uc9m2x0lg2dglr3dkaf3qukpjtftysn96qdq7uda nostr:note156fyw2e4w8f0cmu6xmkj7k7f39yh8zw4pq2q90l9llmtefmtu0ds6743zm nostr:note1zz288585z68a0xlm9pc6y4s48ghfdl8hg6zkfmslaj2k9v0nscpsae8m95 nostr:note17tcfuxu8h3ss3rzjpx3zwwnucqdpramnh0yd5j4vj3ee65dleyxqfhcwk7 nostr:note1tu8d06kyw9a4s7xrsu723xmu24f2y34shd6qzn9wpa2jz5ddcu5sa5nvpq
• ネームタグ？　kind:?? nostr:note1ck3h58hjm6z00xcxu6fmm2raujrzy8t5ajc7p76pwafl6e0ffdvqh3k07t
• ピン留め　kind:?? nostr:note18dfzlgaf4ugkxs5209556p53gl67d8hfkutvtm7qnprjlfnavf0sr98k2h nostr:note1mnz5xlu0wnrh2rhjucjmzv2p9ta6xm5e0hhg2p8kyhe2dkgul3qs09h98h
• リスト？　NIP-?? kind:30000 nostr:note1ug7lcgjpkac57a9wd27rjqwymv5cwczmuc4ezg5wweuzrxgwhddqzp3mwz nostr:note126ahjdpmy6alv7mfm5x0yupyty03w3knlwf03cyypguguqjwrxqqyk7ysp
• 長文投稿　kind30023(これ)NIP-?? nostr:note1qzt4xpwv63tac460ha2am9xfdys4l0p34g8q93tqyp8dckgf6lkqkrua73 nostr:note1cx6w82s6p735n765y5rurzu038qkly03t7pcf4u8r6z6yucgf8qspsnkt4
• Suno(上記音楽生成AI)が出力した曲の耳コピ nostr:note12pry99d4z8w3cnpzy46xlg2kpudzj09jpv4vjxt62l54gt4v8dqsvlwyxl
• Damusへのリンク共有？ nostr:note1y2uzgxz89lnnzqgj0ndj43qan34wv4cvx56srgzghezt07jc6g6qukddry nostr:note1hcnndcrmwjulzt07t4aelraptr7zyhjuf8ut3vg293j06fwn7fgqae0w0y
• 警告？　NIP-?? nostr:note1w6djak9hknd84ryz389jctrmx39eqm2xvwv97k4sk2m2c0akvmysuny8p4
• emoji kitchen (先述のnostterからすぐできます!他もできるかも) nostr:note1k5s6x4hglqwzqghajpl8r7g7t9q8t6uzv2cx92q26tkjcj8hm6rq8elxfu nostr:note1ue575wzjvun0zy4wg2lfv6unrcxnzd688980eur9mulak3msxqgsf2rw72 nostr:note1246rg8v3gvwpwhu5tgzdf2e8cwn77q65gkjt7yhyyqchcchpsduq6mrex7
• kind7のkind5 nostr:note1fwtplut4pshq55790rrf328gxqglrx2m77wkxhsfrpajrnxjnvkqwvlf7w 無事外せたというか、全部lumilumiでできることがわかったんだけど、その記録が見当たらなかった
• ハッシュタグ　NIP-?? kind:?? nostr:note13lfdgatre3v5hnxcst0hkcgm8guzlavu6vyxez6n4s09jl7setlsfq3fcf nostr:note1dllf6795ttv0sft4rlclf7zerfpher23z3ga26kyn9yfafffncls3z5n42

---

kind30023用クライアントまとめ

（拡張機能を使わずに使用した所感）
* makimono：署名方法→秘密鍵×/nsec.app〇　表示→編集画面で表示確認可、njumpとlumilumiのnaddrリンクあり　NIP-21→対応　kind5（削除）→流せない　kind30024→多分、流せない

• habla：署名方法→なし（秘密鍵ログインできない。nsec.appもなんか入れない（読み込みから進まない）。）read only　表示→シンプルだけど文字がデカい　nip-21→対応

• yakihonnne：署名方法→秘密鍵〇/nsec.app→試してない　kind30023の編集ができない（読み込みから進まない）。NIP-21試してない。

• flycat：署名方法→秘密鍵〇/nsec.app試してない　kind1も流せる　NIP-21→非対応　kind30024→Draftがあるけど、kind30024を流しているわけでは無さそう。キャッシュクリアして再ログインすると残ってない。　kind5→流せない。

• tagayasu：署名方法：秘密鍵×/ncec.app×/拡張機能のみ？（画像↓参照）　でも、なんか、全部できる。kind5も流せる。kind30024も。

※NIP-21はこうやって引用元のツイート（便宜上）を表示する決まり

| クライアント | 署名方法 | NIP-21 | 備考 | |--------------|-----------|--------|------| | makimono | 秘密鍵× / nsec.app〇 | 対応 | 編集画面で表示確認可。njump・lumilumiのnaddrリンクあり。kind5（削除）は送信不可。kind30024（下書き）も多分送信不可。 | | flycat | 秘密鍵〇 / nsec.app未確認 | 非対応 | kind1は送信可。Draft機能はあるがkind30024ではない（キャッシュ消すと消える）。kind5は送信不可。 | | habla | 秘密鍵× / nsec.app× | 対応 | 使い道は表示確認くらい。シンプルだけど文字が大きい。nsec.appからの読み込みも進まない。 | | yakihonnne | 秘密鍵〇 / nsec.app未確認 | 不明 | kind30023の編集が読み込みで止まる。NIP-21対応は未確認。 | | tagayasu | 秘密鍵× / nsec.app×（拡張機能のみ？） | 不明 | 拡張ログインさえあれば全部できる。kind5・kind30024も送信可能。 |

• 未確認を埋めたいひとはコピペしてご自身でkind30023をお流しくださいませね🙏

---

今のたゃが言えるのはこんなとこかなー！！！ 穴（NIPとかkindとか未試行とか）、いつかは埋めたいけど、いつか、かな…。
別にこれが仕事に繋がるとかじゃないけど、たゃ生がより良い（好い）ものになったことは確か！ ↑上書き可能コンテンツだからこれはkind1（短文投稿？）で引用しながら言ったほうがいい気がしてきた。
一旦ここまで！
終

@ 2cde0e02:180a96b9

pen, watercolors & brushpen;

https://stacker.news/items/1006873

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

text

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

text

@ 0faf8268:2e8a5462

Using Browser Extensions to Log In and Sign Events on Nostr

If you're new to Nostr, or trying to log in to a client via a web browser using an existing account, you may come across something that feels risky: being asked to paste your private key (your nsec) into a website to log in. This guide outlines a safer alternative. using browser extensions like Nos2x or Alby, which let you securely log in and sign actions without exposing your private key.

These extensions only work in desktop web browsers, not in mobile apps. If you're logging in to a mobile Nostr client (such as Primal, Amethyst, Damus, or others), you’ll typically need to either paste your existing nsec into the app or use a secure import method, like scanning a QR code or restoring from a backup. Be extremely cautious when pasting your nsec, and only do so in apps you trust.

What is NAWC

NAWC stands for "Nostr Authorisation Web Credential". It allows Nostr websites to ask your browser for permission to read your public key and sign messages, without needing direct access to your private key. It works similarly to a password manager or a crypto wallet extension.

Why avoid pasting your nsec

Your nsec is your private key. If someone gains access to it, they can impersonate you, send posts as you, or read your private messages.

Pasting your nsec into a web form is discouraged for several reasons:

• The site might be compromised or malicious

• Your key could be stored in browser memory or cached

• Extensions, scripts, or browser plugins could access the field

• You may unknowingly copy or sync it elsewhere (e.g. clipboard history, autofill, cloud sync)

Once exposed, your nsec cannot be revoked or changed, it is your entire Nostr identity. This is why experienced users recommend using extensions that safely manage your key and handle signing.

What new users might notice

Some Nostr clients still prompt users to paste their nsec, even when a signing extension like Nos2x is installed. This can cause confusion, especially for users trying to follow best practice. Extensions sometimes need to be manually enabled, refreshed, or granted permission before they are recognised. These challenges are common in a developing ecosystem and should improve over time.

Extensions that support NAWC

Nos2x

• Chrome only

• Stores one private key locally

• Works with sites like Primal and Coracle

• Lightweight and simple to use

Alby

• Available for Chrome and Firefox

• Originally built for Lightning, but also supports Nostr

• May need extra setup for non-Lightning Nostr use

• Supports switching between keys and profiles

Bunker (self-hosted signer, not an extension)

• Keeps your private key entirely isolated from the browser

• Can be combined with hardware devices or run remotely

• Ideal for advanced users or managing multiple keys with higher security

Why Signing Events Matters in Nostr

On Nostr, everything you do, posting a note, reacting to content, updating your profile, is considered an event.

To prove that an event is really yours, it must be signed with your private key. This signature is what makes the event valid and verifiable by anyone on the network.

Browser extensions like Nos2x, Alby, or self-hosted signers like Bunker handle this event signing for you. Instead of giving the site your private key, the extension signs the event on your behalf, keeping your key secure while still proving authorship.

In short: extensions are not just for logging in, they also sign everything you do. This keeps your identity secure and helps maintain Nostr’s decentralised and trustless nature.

How to use an extension

1. Install Nos2x or Alby

2. Enter your nsec into the extension settings (only once)

3. Visit a Nostr client like primal.net

4. Approve the login request from the extension

5. You’ll be logged in securely without pasting your key

Switching keys

Most extensions support only one private key at a time. To switch:

• Open the extension

• Remove the current key and enter a new one

• Refresh the site and reauthorise when prompted

If your old key keeps reappearing or does not seem to clear properly, it may be necessary to:

• Uninstall the extension

• Reinstall it from the Chrome Web Store

• Then enter your new nsec during setup

This is a known issue with some extensions (like Nos2x), and will likely improve as tools mature. For now, a clean reinstall is a simple workaround.

Wrap-up

Browser extensions are one of the safest and most effective ways to interact with Nostr. They protect your private key, simplify login, and securely sign every action you take.

While the user experience is still evolving, using a signing extension today is a smart way to get started safely and build good habits as you explore the network.

For more beginner-friendly Nostr guidance, visit:\ https://swiftsats.github.io/getting-started-with-nostr/

@ 4fe14ef2:f51992ec

Let's support Bitcoin merchants! I'd love to hear some of your latest Lightning purchases and interesting products you bought. Feel free to include links to the shops or businesses you bought from.

Who else has a recent purchase they’re excited about? Bonus sats if you found a killer deal! ⚡

If you missed our last thread, here are some of the items stackers recently spent and zap on.

Like and repost: X: https://x.com/AGORA_SN/status/1934193660796780660 N: https://njump.me/nevent1qqsdaqz3qjmgta88a4wnzyh7vujla7ecsc7luatrtl0a2k7xq43thhq337lj2

https://stacker.news/items/1006838

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

The latest AI chips, 8K displays, and neural processing units make your device feel like a pocket supercomputer. So surely, with all this advancement, you can finally mine bitcoin on your phone profitably, right?

The 2025 Hardware Reality: Can You Mine Bitcoin on Your Phone

Despite remarkable advances in smartphone technology, the fundamental physics of bitcoin mining haven’t changed. In 2025, flagship devices with their cutting-edge 2nm processors can achieve approximately 25-40 megahashes per second when you mine bitcoin on your phone—a notable improvement from previous generations, but still laughably inadequate.

Meanwhile, 2025’s top-tier ASIC miners have evolved dramatically. The latest Bitmain Antminer S23 series and Canaan AvalonMiner A15 Pro deliver 200-300 terahashes per second while consuming 4,000-5,500 watts. That’s a performance gap of roughly 1:8,000,000 between when you mine bitcoin on your phone and professional mining equipment.

To put this in perspective that hits home: if you mine bitcoin on your phone and it earned you one penny, professional miners would earn $80,000 in the same time period with the same effort. It’s not just an efficiency problem—it’s a complete category mismatch.

According to Pocket Option’s 2025 analysis, when you mine bitcoin on your phone in 2025, you generate approximately $0.003-0.006 in daily revenue while consuming $0.45-0.85 in electricity through constant charging cycles. Factor in the accelerated device wear (estimated at $0.75-1.20 daily depreciation), and you’re looking at losses of $1.20-2.00 per day just for the privilege of running mining software.

Mining Economic Factor

Precise Value (April 2025)

Direct Impact on Profitability

Smartphone sustained hash rate

20-35 MH/s

0.00000024% contribution to global hashrate

Daily power consumption

3.2-4.8 kWh (4-6 full charges)

$0.38-0.57 at average US electricity rates

Expected daily BTC earnings

0.0000000086 BTC ($0.0035 at $41,200 BTC)

Revenue covers only 0.9% of electricity costs

CPU/GPU wear cost

$0.68-0.92 daily accelerated depreciation

Reduces smartphone lifespan by 60-70%

Annual profit projection

-$386 to -$412 per year

Guaranteed negative return on investment

Source: PocketOption

Bitcoin’s 2025 Network: Harder Than Ever

Bitcoin’s network difficulty in 2025 has reached unprecedented levels. After the April 2024 halving event that reduced block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC, mining became significantly more competitive. The global hash rate now exceeds 800 exahashes per second—that’s 800 followed by 18 zeros worth of computational power securing the network.

Here’s what this means in practical terms: Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (roughly every two weeks) to maintain the 10-minute block time. As more efficient miners join the network, difficulty increases proportionally. In 2025, mining difficulty has increased compared to 2024, making small-scale mining even less viable.

The math is unforgiving:

• Global Bitcoin hash rate: 828.96 EH/s
• Your smartphone’s contribution: ~0.000000003%
• Probability of solo mining a block: Virtually zero
• Expected time to mine one Bitcoin: Several million years

Even joining mining pools doesn’t solve the economic problem. Pool fees typically range from 1-3%, and your minuscule contribution would earn proportionally tiny rewards—far below the electricity and device depreciation costs.

The 2025 Scam Evolution: More Sophisticated, More Dangerous

Fraudsters now leverage AI-generated content, fake influencer endorsements, and impressive-looking apps that simulate realistic mining activity to entice you to mine bitcoin on your phone.

New 2025 scam tactics include:

AI-Powered Fake Testimonials: Deepfake videos of supposed successful mobile miners showing fabricated earnings statements and encouraging downloads of malicious apps.

Gamified Mining Interfaces: Apps that look and feel like legitimate games but secretly harvest personal data while simulating mining progress that can never be withdrawn.

Social Media Manipulation: Coordinated campaigns across TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube featuring fake “financial influencers” promoting mobile mining apps to younger audiences.

Subscription Trap Mining: Apps offering “free trials” that automatically charge $19.99-49.99 monthly for “premium mining speeds” while delivering no actual mining capability.

Recent cybersecurity research shows that over 180 fake mining apps were discovered across major app stores in 2025, with some accumulating more than 500,000 downloads before being removed.

Red flags that scream “scam” in 2025:

• Apps claiming “revolutionary mobile mining breakthrough”
• Promises of earning “$10-50 daily” from phone mining
• Requirements to recruit friends or watch ads to unlock withdrawals
• Apps that don’t require connecting to actual mining pools
• Testimonials that seem too polished or use stock photo models
• Apps requesting permissions unrelated to mining (contacts, camera, microphone)

The 2025 Professional Mining Landscape

To understand why, consider what professional bitcoin mining looks like in 2025. Industrial mining operations now resemble high-tech data centers with:

Cutting-edge hardware:

• Bitmain Antminer S23 Pro: 280 TH/s at 4,800W
• MicroBT WhatsMiner M56S++: 250 TH/s at 4,500W
• Canaan AvalonMiner A1566: 185 TH/s at 3,420W

Infrastructure requirements:

• Megawatt-scale power contracts with industrial electricity rates
• Liquid cooling systems maintaining 24/7 optimal temperatures
• Redundant internet connections ensuring zero downtime
• Professional facility management with 24/7 monitoring

For a small operation, you might need at least $10,000 to $20,000 to buy a few ASIC miners, set up cooling systems, and cover electricity costs. These operations employ teams of engineers, maintain relationships with power companies, and operate with margins measured in single-digit percentages.

2025’s Legitimate Mobile Bitcoin Strategies

While it remains impossible to mine bitcoin on your phone profitably, 2025 offers exciting legitimate ways to engage with bitcoin through your smartphone:

Lightning Network Participation: Apps like Phoenix, Breez, and Zeus allow you to run Lightning nodes on mobile devices, earning small routing fees while supporting bitcoin’s payment layer.

Bitcoin DCA Automation: Services enable automated dollar-cost averaging with amounts as small as $1 daily. Historical data shows $10 weekly bitcoin purchases consistently outperform any mobile mining attempt by 1,500-2,000%.

Educational Mining Simulators: Legitimate apps like “Bitcoin Mining Simulator” teach mining concepts without false earning promises. These educational tools help users understand hash rates, difficulty adjustments, and mining economics.

Stacking Sats Rewards: Apps offering bitcoin rewards for shopping, learning, or completing tasks.

Lightning Gaming: Bitcoin-native mobile games where players can earn sats through skilled gameplay, with some players earning $10 monthly.onfirm that even the most optimized mobile mining setups in 2025 lose money consistently and predictably.

The Bottom Line

When you mine bitcoin on your phone fundamental economics remain unchanged: it’s impossible to profit. The laws of physics, network competition, and energy efficiency create insurmountable barriers that no app can overcome.

However, 2025 offers unprecedented opportunities to engage with bitcoin meaningfully through your smartphone. Focus on education, legitimate earning opportunities, and strategic investment rather than chasing the impossible dream of phone-based mining.

The bitcoin community’s greatest strength lies in its commitment to truth over hype. When someone promises profits to mine bitcoin on your phone in 2025, they’re either uninformed or deliberately misleading you. Trust the mathematics, learn from the community, and build your bitcoin knowledge and holdings through proven methods.

The real opportunity in 2025 isn’t to mine bitcoin on your phone—it’s understanding bitcoin deeply enough to participate confidently in the most important monetary revolution of our lifetime. Your smartphone is the perfect tool for that education; it’s just not a mining rig.

@ 93bfc86d:fc8e91f5

M of N 분산

이번 5월 BSL 컨퍼런스와 비트코인 서울 2025 컨퍼런스에서 펜락(Penlock) 프로젝트에 참여하고 있는 한 분을 만났다. 아마 이 분을 만난 한국인 분들이 더 있을 텐데, 현재는 익명을 원하시므로 프라이버시 보호를 위해 실명을 언급하는 것은 주의하는 것이 좋겠다.

키를 M of N으로 분산하는 방식 중 내가 알고 있는 건 멀티시그와 샤미르 분산이다.

멀티시그는 각자가 키를 생성하지만,

1. 스크립트 길이가 길어지고, 스크립트를 해시로 감싼다고 해도 일반 주소보다 길다.

2. 일반적인 P2MS는 공개키가 드러나므로 프라이버시 보장이 안 되고, P2SH로 감싸도 서명할 때 각자의 공개키가 드러난다(리딤 스크립트가 드러나므로).

이런 특징을 갖고 있다.

샤미르 분산은 하나의 키를 분산하는 방식이므로,

1. 키를 복원했을 때는 결국 하나의 키가 생성되므로 키가 복원되었을 때 보안에 매우 주의해야 한다.

2. 하지만 외부에서 볼 때는 어떤 방식으로 분할이 되었는지 알 수가 없으므로 프라이버시에 좋다.

이런 특징을 갖고 있다.

M of N은 회사에서의 권한 분산, 상속, 위험 지점 분산, 신뢰 지점 분산 등에 사용할 수 있을 것이다. 하지만 나는 멀티시그와 샤미르 분산이 둘 다 M of N을 구현하지만 그 특성이 약간 다르기 때문에 적합한 용처도 다르다고 생각한다. 만약 한 기업이 여러 이사진의 의사결정 과정에서 권한을 분산해야 한다면 멀티시그 방식이 훨씬 나을 것이다. 이사 각각이 서명하면 되기 때문이다. 여기다가 샤미르 분산을 쓴다면 이사 몇 명이 모여 키 하나를 생성했을 때 쪼개기 전의 원래 하나의 키가 생기므로 권한 분산에 차질이 생길 수 있다. 그 키를 갖는 사람이 갑자기 모든 권한을 가질 수 있게 되기 때문이다. 거꾸로 한 개인이 키를 백업하고자 하는데 키를 분실하거나 화재나 기타 재난 등의 이유로 파괴될 것에 대비하여 여러 장소에 분산하여 보관하고 싶다면 샤미르 분산이 더 적합할 것이다. 키 조각들을 합쳐서 원래 키가 생겼을 때 그 키는 어차피 한 개인이 쓰는 것이므로 권한 구조가 갑자기 한 곳으로 몰리는 것에 대해 걱정할 필요가 없기 때문이다.

그런데 샤미르 분산은 멀티시그보다 직관적이진 않은 것 같다. 멀티시그는 스크립트 구조를 보면 바로 어떤 구조인지 알 수 있다. 손으로 따라 쓸 수도 있는 수준이다. 하지만 트레저가 도입한 샤미르 분산인 SLIP-0039 같은 형식은 직관적이지가 않다. 일단 샤미르 분산이 다항함수를 통한 비밀 분산을 쓰는 원리라는 걸 이해해야 하고(키 조각이 부족하면 부정방정식이 되어서 복구 불가), 그걸 통해 복구하는 과정에서 사용하는 라그랑주 보간법이 인간이 손으로 계산하기에는 너무 어렵다. 키를 분할하고 복구하는 과정이 수학적인 함수 공간에서 정의되고, 사용자는 키 조각들만 보게 되므로 내부 구조에 대해 직관적으로 이해하기가 어렵다.

오프라인 손 계산과 직관적 이해

조금 다른 주제로 넘어가보자. 나는 기술의 사용자들이 그 기술을 '직관'적으로 이해할 수 있는 지가 매우 중요하다고 생각한다. 비트코인 경험에는 특히 '검증'이 중요한데 어떤 기술을 직관적으로 이해할 수 없다면 검증은 전문가들만의 전유물이 되기 때문이다.

예를 들어보자. 앨리스, 밥, 캐롤이 각각 니모닉을 만들었다.

1. 앨리스는 기계가 생성해준 니모닉을 사용한다. 기계는 SE칩 내부에 있는 전자의 브라운 운동 등을 엔트로피로 이용해 랜덤한 엔트로피를 생성했다. 하지만 앨리스는 이 사실을 모르고, 따라서 기계를 신뢰해야 한다. 앨리스는 기계가 생성해 준 엔트로피가 충분히 랜덤하고 안전하다고 "믿고 있다." 사실이 그런지 아닌지와는 별개로 말이다.

2. 밥은 주사위를 던져서 만든 니모닉을 사용한다. 하지만 주사위를 던졌을 때 나온 값이 어떻게 니모닉으로 변환되는지는 모른다. 기계는 주사위를 던져 나온 숫자를 유니코드 문자열로 인식하여 SHA256을 한 번 돌린 뒤, 그 해시값을 엔트로피로 사용한다. 밥은 자신이 직접 주사위를 던졌으므로 엔트로피가 랜덤하게 생성되었다는 것은 직관적으로 알지만, 그 숫자가 어떻게 니모닉으로 계산된 건지는 모른다.

3. 캐롤은 직접 동전을 던져 0, 1을 기록하고 자신이 직접 니모닉 표를 보며 니모닉을 대응시켰다. 따라서 캐롤은 자신이 사용하는 니모닉이 랜덤하다는 것도 이해하고 있으며, 랜덤한 엔트로피를 어떻게 니모닉에 대응시키는지도 알고 있다.

세 가지 경우 중 누가 니모닉에 대해 가장 잘 직관적으로 이해하고 있겠는가? 당연히 3번 캐롤이다. 이렇듯 오프라인에서 동전을 던져 직접 엔트로피를 생성하고, 표를 보며 손으로 직접 니모닉에 대응시키는 과정은 니모닉을 직관적으로 이해하는 데 매우 중요하다.

솔직히 3번의 경우도 완전히 신뢰 지점이 없진 않다. 왜냐하면... 니모닉의 체크썸을 계산하는 과정에서 해싱을 해야 하기 때문이다. 손으로 SHA256 함수를 계산할 수 있는 게 아니라면... 캐롤은 어떤 기계에게 체크섬 생성을 맡길 수밖에 없다. 그러면 적어도 그 과정에 대한 이해의 폭은 제한될 수밖에 없다.

오프라인에서 계산하는 경험들이 왜 직관적인 이해에 더 도움이 될까? 그 과정들을 자신이 온전히 통제하기 때문이다. 기계에 맡겨야 하는 순간에는 그 기계 안에서 무엇이 일어나는지 알 수 없으며 따라서 자신의 통제 밖에 있다.

펜락 프로젝트

서론이 길었다! 다시 샤미르 분산 이야기로 돌아오겠다. 샤미르 분산을 '손으로 계산'해 키 조각을 만들고, 키 조각들을 모아 다시 오프라인에서 '손으로 계산'해 하나로 만들 수 있을까? 거의 불가능에 가까울 것이다!

그런데 이번에 BSL 컨퍼런스에서 펜락 프로젝트에 참여하고 있는 한 분을 우연히 만나 인사를 나눴고, 며칠 뒤 있는 비트코인 서울 컨퍼런스에서 그 분이 나한테 선물을 주셨다. 바로... 아래 사진의 회전판이다. 직접 가위로 자르고 핀을 꽂는 것까지 봤다(컨퍼런스 강연 중에 뒷자리에서 가위로 자르고 있어서 웃음을 참을 수가 없었다ㅋㅋㅋ). 나는 이 귀엽고 조악한 회전판을 처음 봤을 때 이 위력에 대해 알지 못했다...

이 펜락 프로젝트 회전판은... 샤미르 분산처럼 하나의 키를 키 조각으로 나누고, 그 키 조각들을 오프라인에서 원래 키로 복구할 수 있게 만들어준다. 이게 작동하는 걸 처음 봤을 때 나는 정말 정말 x21 엄청나게 놀랐다.

사용 방법을 간단히 말해보자면, 메인 키(니모닉)가 있으면 니모닉 한 단어의 앞 4개 문자만 적는다(이유는 다들 아실 거라 생각... 니모닉은 앞 4글자가 겹치는 경우가 없기 때문). 그 다음에 두 숫자를 뽑는다. 1–32까지의 숫자 한 장, 그리고 1–32까지의 숫자인데 흰 동그라미/검은 동그라미 나눠져있는 걸로 한 장(그러면 총 64가지 경우일 것이다). 그러면 32*64 = 2,048가지 경우가 나온다. 그리고 체크섬을 표에서 찾아 적는데, 솔직히 추가 체크썸이 왜 필요한 건지는 아직 이해를 못했다. 진짜로 이 오프라인 과정을 해보며 생길 수 있는 오류를 잡기 위한 체크썸인 것으로 이해된다.

어쨌든 하이라이트는 지금부터인데... 자, 니모닉에서 'F'라는 단어가 있다고 해보자. 그러면 아래 사진처럼 눈금을 F에다 둔다. 그 다음 랜덤한 숫자를 뽑는다. 그렇게 뽑은 숫자가 22이라고 해보자. 그러면 회전판 내부에서 22, 23, 24에 있는 문자를 각각 아래에 적는다. 이게 키 조각이다... F가 ① V, ② P, ③ J 이렇게 세 가지 조각으로 분할 된 거다.

이제 세 개의 키 조각 ① V, ② P, ③ J로 키를 복구하는 상황을 생각해보자. 만약 ③번 키 조각인 J가 화재로 날아가버렸다. 2 of 3이니 그래도 키 조각이 두 개만 있어도 복구할 수 있다. ①번 키 조각인 V와, ②번 키 조각인 P를 조합해 키를 복구해보겠다. 그러면 회전판을 움직여... P가 V를 바라보게 하면 된다. 사진에서 빨간 박스로 표시한 부분이다. 그러면 큰 눈금이 원래 키인 F를 가리키게 된다. 정말 미쳤다! 만약, ②번 키 조각 P와, ③번 키 조각 J가 있다면 J가 P를 바라보게 하면 된다. 만약 ③번 키 조각 J와, ①번 키 조각 V로 키 복구를 시도한다면 J가 V를 바라보게 하고, 대신 ③번이 ①번을 바라보게 하는 것처럼 순환하는 상황에는 큰 눈금이 아니라 내부 1번 네모칸을 읽어야 한다.

펜락 회전판의 뒷면을 보면 이걸 어떻게 구현했는지 대강 알 수가 있다. 펜락 프로젝트는 반지름을 조금씩 다르게 하고, 회전 각도를 서로소인 두 숫자를 이용해 글자들이 겹치지 않도록 구현한 걸로 보인다. 말로 설명했지만, 직접 해봐야 "미쳤다!" 소리가 저절로 나온다. 이거 직접 해보면 ~비속어가 나올 정도로~ 놀란다. 정말로.

펜락 프로젝트는 오픈 소스라고 하고, 최고 개발자는 ganrama이다(사이트는 아직 베타라서 내용들이 채워지고 있는 걸로 보인다ㅎㅎ).

https://github.com/ganrama

https://beta.penlock.io/

나는 비트코인에서 나오는 프로젝트들을 일단 의심부터 하고 보는 편이다. 그런데 펜락은 직관적으로 다 이해가 되기 때문에 현재는 우려할만한 점이 생각나지 않는다. 비트코인 프로젝트들 중에는 편리함, 보안, 프라이버시 중 무언가를 희생시키고 그걸 교묘히 감추려고 하거나 비즈니스 모델을 만들다가 초기의 정신을 잊는 경우가 많다. 그런데 이 프로젝트는 그에 해당할 만한 게 없는 것 같아서 일단 의심의 눈초리를 거두고 응원한다. 내가 오프라인에서 직접 키를 분할해보고, 조합해본 경험이 너무 강렬하게 작용했기 때문인 것 같다. 펜락 대표 개발자가 올해 하반기에 기회가 된다면 한국에서도 소개하고 싶다고 하니 계속 관심을 갖고 지켜보려고 한다.

@ 7e6f9018:a6bbbce5

The velocity of money inform us about how quick the money moves, and is a frequent indicator to research the current economic environment.

An interesting twist is using housing instead of money. Why? The main reasons that come to mind are:

1. It’s easier to measure housing velocity than dollar velocity.

2. Data on housing transactions is more reliable.

3. Residential real state is the largest store of wealth in the world.

> The residential real estate is worth $287 trillion. Not even all the money deposited in stocks ($98 trillion) and bonds ($129 trillion), added together, surpass the residential real state market. In a way, housing is the economy.

The next chart shows the velocity of housing in Spain, where we observe a negative correlation of -0.53, which is quite significant. This suggests that the higher the housing velocity, the higher the inflation; and the lower the housing velocity, the lower the inflation.

> The velocity is a measurement of the rate at which the current stock of houses is exchanged. The lower the value, the higher the velocity. A ratio of (x) means that it would take (x) years to exchange the stock at current speed.

Therefore, by knowing how quickly the housing sector is moving, we can infer whether we are living under an inflationary or deflationary period.

Currently, housing velocity has been increasing, reaching a value of 36 in 2025, a relatively high figure (all time high was 28 in 2006), and at the same time, we are experiencing an inflationary period. Hopefully this data can help us navigate the economic world and invest accordingly.

@ 866e0139:6a9334e5

Autor: Jonas Tögel. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.

---

Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.

---

Eine der wichtigste Säulen einer funktionierenden Demokratie ist die sogenannte „öffentliche Sphäre“ (1), ein Debattenraum, in den sich alle Menschen gleichberechtigt einbringen und über aktuelle, für die Gemeinschaft wichtige Fragen diskutieren können. In Deutschland ist die Offenheit dieses Debattenraumes eigentlich durch fundamentale Grundrechte wie die Meinungs- und Pressefreiheit geschützt. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHF6rjDbK9w

Soziale Medien im Visier

Dennoch wird der öffentliche Diskurs derzeit immer stärker eingeschränkt. Als Rechtfertigung dafür wird seit einigen Jahren der sogenannte Kampf gegen „Desinformation“ oder auch „Falschinformation“ (Misinformation) angeführt:  Unter dem Vorwand, die Bevölkerung vor schädlicher Einflussnahme von außen, beispielsweise aus Russland, schützen zu wollen, wird der öffentliche Diskurs mit Hilfe von „Faktencheckern“, „Trusted Flaggern“ oder durch das „Gesetz für Digitale Dienstleistungen“ (Digital Services Act) massiv eingeschränkt, wobei vor allem soziale Medien verstärkt ins Visier genommen werden. 

In der Propagandaforschung ergibt sich bei dem vorgeblichen Kampf gegen „Desinformation“ jedoch das Problem, dass die Begriffe selbst, die als Rechtfertigung dafür verwendet werden, um den öffentlichen Diskurs einzuschränken und bestimmte Inhalte zu löschen, nicht eindeutig definiert sind. Auch was „falsche Tatsachenbehauptungen“ sind, kann letztlich nur der offene, öffentliche Diskurs entscheiden. Wenn das, was „falsch“ oder „richtig“ ist, durch eine einzelne Instanz im Alleingang entschieden wird, dann landet man bei dem, was George Orwell in seinem bekannten Roman 1984 als „Wahrheitsministerium“ beschrieb: ein Ministerium, das auch noch nach Jahren alle verfügbaren Informationen dem aktuellen Stand der „Wahrheit“ anpasst – selbst wenn diese sich ständig ändern sollte. (2)

Auch heute steht immer wieder der Vorwurf im Raum, dass der Kampf gegen „Desinformation“ sowie der Kampf gegen „russische Desinformation“ gezielt genutzt werden, um im Kampf um die Deutungshoheit das eigene, westliche Narrativ durchzusetzen. Diesen Punkt habe ich ausführlich in meinem Artikel in der Berliner Zeitung dargelegt. 

Wie unehrlich der Kampf gegen falsche Informationen tatsächlich ist, kann folgendes konkrete Beispiel zeigen: Die deutsche Politikerin und ehemalige Vorsitzende des Verteidigungsausschusses im Bundestag, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, erklärte in einer am 24. März 2025 im ORF2 ausgestrahlten Sendung: 

„Wladimir Putin ist ein Mörder, ein Killer, der hunderte von Millionen Menschen unter die Erde gebracht hat.“

In der gleichen Sendung behauptete Strack-Zimmermann, dass die Ukraine 70 Milliarden Menschen ernähre. Besonders bemerkenswert dabei ist, dass ihr niemand in der Sendung widersprach.

Wenn man beide Zahlen einordnen möchte, dann sollte man sich einerseits bewusst machen, dass Strack-Zimmermann damit behauptet, dass der russische Präsident mehr Menschen „unter die Erde gebracht hat“, als laut offiziellen Zahlen im Ersten und Zweiten Weltkrieg zusammen gestorben sind. Andererseits sollte man wissen, dass die Weltbevölkerung insgesamt bei ca. 8,2 Milliarden Menschen liegt, die Ukraine laut dieser Aussage somit die gesamte Weltbevölkerung ca. 8,5 Mal ernähren könnte. 

---

DIE FRIEDENSTAUBE FLIEGT AUCH IN IHR POSTFACH!

Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt, vorerst für alle kostenfrei, wir starten gänzlich ohne Paywall. (Die Bezahlabos fangen erst zu laufen an, wenn ein Monetarisierungskonzept für die Inhalte steht). Sie wollen der Genossenschaft beitreten oder uns unterstützen? Mehr Infos hier oder am Ende des Textes.

---

Das Messen mit doppeltem Maß

Als der Autor daher beschloss, die Äußerungen von Strack-Zimmermann bei mehreren, einschlägigen Meldeportalen für „Desinformation“ als gefährliche Hassrede zu melden, war das Ergebnis umso erstaunlicher: entweder erklärten sich die Meldeportale für das öffentlich-rechtliche Fernsehen nicht zuständig, oder sie lehnten eine Bearbeitung des Falles und einen Faktencheck der getroffenen Aussagen ab, da es wichtigere Fälle zu bearbeiten gäbe und leider keine Kapazitäten zur Prüfung dieses Aussagen zur Verfügung stünden. 

Dieses konkrete Beispiel soll zeigen, wie wichtig es ist, den vorgeblichen Kampf gegen „Desinformation“ oder auch „russische Einflussnahme“ als das einzuordnen, was er in vielen Fällen ist: ein unehrlich Kampf um die Deutungshoheit und damit ein gefährlicher Bestandteil von dem, was man ehrlicherweise als Kriegspropaganda bezeichnet. 

Den Bürgerinnen und Bürgern bleibt somit nur, alle Informationen selbst kritisch auf ihren Wahrheitsgehalt hin zu prüfen und selbst zu entscheiden, was als wertvolle Information und was als manipulative „Desinformation“ eingestuft werden kann. Je besser es gelingt, tatsächliche Desinformation und Kriegspropaganda aller an einem Krieg beteiligten Nationen zu hinterfragen, umso schwerer wird es, diesen Krieg zu führen. Damit ist das Durchschauen von unehrlichen Schlagwörtern wie „Desinformation“ oder „Falschinformation“ ein erster, wichtiger Schritt zur Neutralisierung von Kriegspropaganda und bildet das Fundament, das den Weg zum Frieden dadurch möglich macht. Jeder einzelne hat somit die Möglichkeit, diesen Weg zum Frieden aktiv mitzugestalten. Hier kann der Mut, sich jeden Tag im persönlichen Umfeld in den öffentlichen Diskurs einzubringen und die Friedensbotschaft zu stärken, bereits einen wichtigen Beitrag leisten. 

(1)  Habermas, Jürgen. 1971/1962. Strukturwandel der Öffentlichkeit. Untersuchungen zu einer Kategorie der bürgerlichen Gesellschaft. 5th ed. Neuwied/Berlin.

(2)  Orwell, George (1948). 1984. Seite 193 ff. 

---

Dr. Jonas Tögel ist Amerikanist, Propagandaforscher und *Bestsellerautor. Er hat zum Thema Soft Power und Motivation promoviert und arbeitet als wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am Institut für Psychologie der Universität Regensburg. Seine Forschungsschwerpunkte sind unter anderem Motivation, der Einsatz von Soft-Power-Techniken, Nudging, Propaganda sowie Geostrategie. *

Zuletzt erschien sein Buch „Kriegsspiele“ im Westend-Verlag.

Website: *www.jonastoegel.de *

X (Twitter): *https://x.com/JonasToegel *

YouTube: *https://www.youtube.com/@DrJonasToegel *

Instagram: *https://www.instagram.com/drjonastoegel/ *

Telegram: https://t.me/drjonastoegel 

---

LASSEN SIE DER FRIEDENSTAUBE FLÜGEL WACHSEN!

In Kürze folgt eine Mail an alle Genossenschafter, danke für die Geduld!

Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt.

Schon jetzt können Sie uns unterstützen:

• Für 50 CHF/EURO bekommen Sie ein Jahresabo der Friedenstaube.
• Für 120 CHF/EURO bekommen Sie ein Jahresabo und ein T-Shirt/Hoodie mit der Friedenstaube.
• Für 500 CHF/EURO werden Sie Förderer und bekommen ein lebenslanges Abo sowie ein T-Shirt/Hoodie mit der Friedenstaube.
• Ab 1000 CHF werden Sie Genossenschafter der Friedenstaube mit Stimmrecht (und bekommen lebenslanges Abo, T-Shirt/Hoodie).

Für Einzahlungen in CHF (Betreff: Friedenstaube):

Für Einzahlungen in Euro:

Milosz Matuschek

IBAN DE 53710520500000814137

BYLADEM1TST

Sparkasse Traunstein-Trostberg

Betreff: Friedenstaube

Wenn Sie auf anderem Wege beitragen wollen, schreiben Sie die Friedenstaube an: friedenstaube@pareto.space

---

Sie sind noch nicht auf Nostr and wollen die volle Erfahrung machen (liken, kommentieren etc.)? Zappen können Sie den Autor auch ohne Nostr-Profil! Erstellen Sie sich einen Account auf Start. Weitere Onboarding-Leitfäden gibt es im Pareto-Wiki.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst

Autor: Dr Srđan Radulović, docent na Pravnom fakultetu Univerziteta u Prištini sa privremenim sedištem u Kosovskoj Mitrovici

---

Rezime

Bitkoin kao virtuelni sistem za plaćanje predstavljen je krajem 2008. godine. Ipak, i danas nedostaju odgovori na neka od fundamentalnih pitanja. Jedno od tih pitanja je da li je Bitkoin zaista novac ili nešto sasvim drugo.

Bitkoin kao sistem primarno je dizajniran ne sa ciljem da se stvori „nova vrsta novca“ u najužem smislu već sa ciljem da se stvori platforma koja obezbeđuje da se transfer vrednosti izvrši na što je efikasniji način moguće. Ipak, iako to nije suštinski, bitkoin ima kapacitet da preuzme ulogu novca, a taj kapacitet je prepoznat i u sudskim odlukama. Prepoznajući i uvažavajući taj kapacitet, u ovom radu prezentujemo rezultate pretežno empirijskog istraživanja sprovedenog prethodno o nestabilnoj, ali opet izrazito deflatornoj prirodi bitkoina i njenom uticaju na novčane obligacije. Konkretno, iako bi ideja mogla biti kontroverzna iz više razloga, a volatilna priroda „cene” bitkoina je svakako jedan od njih, smatramo da periodična depresijacija njegove vrednosti ne znači da je bitkoin inflatoran. Naprotiv, bitkoin je deflatoran po prirodi. Različiti ugrađeni mehanizmi, ali i novi načini primene ističu tu prirodu. Dakle, u radu koristimo različite tehnike analitičkog metoda, najpre da izdvojimo različite deflatorne mehanizme, kako one programirane tako i one faktičke, a zatim i da ih opišemo. Dalje, u radu koristimo sintetičke metode, najpre generalizaciju i apstrakciju, da sumiramo rezultate istraživanja koji potvrđuju kao tačnu polaznu hipotezu da je bitkoin po prirodi izrazito deflatoran i pored njegove nestabilnosti, te da se može koristiti kao zaštitni mehanizam u monetarnim obligacijama.

Ključne reči: Bitkoin, novčane obligacije, ugovor, valutne klauzule, kriptovalutne klauzule, deflacija.

1. Uvod

Evolucija novca neraskidivo je povezana sa tehnološkim napretkom, iako je novac evoluirao značajno sporije zbog pravnih ili kulturnih ograničenja (Calcaterra, Kaal, Rao, 2020: 202-203). Prirodno, pojava digitalne tehnologije podstakla je ideju o generisanju imovine slične gotovini (1) koja se može deponovati i prenositi u digitalnom formatu. Zanimljivo, treća industrijska revolucija oživela je teoriju da su privatni entiteti, ako im se dozvoli, sposobni da obezbede barem jednako pouzdane „kovanice“ kao i one koje stvara država (Hayek, 1976: 24). Kako se kompleksna visokotehnološka infrastruktura koja omogućava potpuno transparentno i unapred određeno izdavanje postepeno razvijala, teorija se činila manje utopijskom (Syropyatov, 2021: 324). Treća industrijska revolucija donela je uzbudljive projekte od kojih su neki postali vrlo uspešni i oni su, u zavisnosti od istorijske interpretacije, inicirali četvrtu ili čak petu veliku promenu novca (Radulović, 2021: 30). Smatra se da DigiCash postavlja tehničku i ideološku osnovu za moderne digitalne valute (Turudić, Milić & Štulina, 2017: 193; Roth, 2015: 528). Ipak, nijedan od ranijih projekata, uglavnom zbog svoje neefikasne centralizovane infrastrukture (Cavalhiero, Cavalhiero, 2022: 209), nije postao ni približno uspešan kao najradikalniji (Hutchinson & Dowd, 2015: 357) – „Bitkoin: Peer-to-peer sistem elektronskog novca“ (Nakamoto, 2008: 1-9).

Bitkoin je prvi uspešan primer demonopolizacije tržišta fiat valuta kroz postepenu implementaciju novca koji izdaju privatni entiteti (Syropyatov, 2021: 319-320). Kako savremeno društvo teži decentralizovanim rešenjima za ljudsku interakciju (Calcaterra, Kaal, Rao, 2020: 193), u gotovo savršenom okruženju za svoj uspeh (Đorđević, 2018: 96), Bitkoin (2) se pokazao kao koristan ekonomski (Đorđević, 2018: 100), ali i pravni instrument (3).

---

1. Za više o različitim imovinama sličnim novcu, videti: Karame & Androulaki, 2016: 11-13.

2. U ovom članku, kako bismo precizno razlikovali Bitkoin kao operativni softver, sistem ili mrežu od bitkoina kao digitalne imovine (podataka ili valute određene vrednosti), na Bitkoin kao sistem ćemo se pozivati koristeći veliko slovo „B“, a na bitkoin kao imovinu koristeći malo slovo „b“ (Antonopoulos, 2014: xvii, 18, 116; Cvetković, 2018: 120; Hutchinson & Dowd, 2015: 357 fn.).

3. Od juna 2021. godine, Salvador je postao prva zemlja koja je legalno priznala Bitkoin kao zakonsko sredstvo plaćanja u gotovo punom kapacitetu, podržala ga tehnički impresivnom digitalnom infrastrukturom (prilagođeni novčanik, specijalizovana vladina platforma za razmenu, različite besplatne aplikacije, pa čak i posebna mreža) i uvela razne podsticaje za promovisanje ovog prilično zanimljivog eksperimenta (Ley Bitcoin, Diario Oficial ES, 110/2021, Decreto No 57). Centralnoafrička Republika je bila druga nacionalna ekonomija koja je uvela Bitkoin kao zakonsko sredstvo plaćanja i rezervnu valutu (République Centrafricaine Cryptomonnaie, Journal Officiel CAF, 22/2022).*

---

Strogo govoreći, Bitkoin nije ni roba ni valuta (Abramowicz, 2015: 3). Bitkoin nije novac. To je sistem plaćanja. Može se izneti čvrst argument da je Bitkoin zapravo institucija ili platforma koja stvara i sprovodi imovinska prava (Abramowicz, 2015: 3). Ali onda, sudska praksa je utvrdila da bitkoin ima sposobnost da preuzme ulogu novca (Raskin, 2015: 980). Dakle, ako ga posmatramo kao novac, on je oblik „spoljnjeg novca“ (Garrat, Wallace, 2018: 1887), što posebno cene korisnici novca koji su već naviknuti na bezgotovinska elektronska ekonomska okruženja (Dimitrijević, 2018: 224-225) (4).

Dubinska analiza potvrđuje da je vrednost bitkoina veoma volatilna kako u kratkim tako i u dužim periodima (Baur, Dimpfl, 2021: 2663–2683). Ipak, očekivano je da mlada valuta bude volatilna (Đorđević, 2018: 100). Spisak razloga za njenu volatilnost je dobro opisan (Mirjanich, 2014: 223; Syropyatov, 2021: 320-322, 326-327). Može se izneti i čvrst argument da je volatilnost bila veća na početku, što u krajnjoj liniji može biti dobra vest za potencijal Bitkoina da se razvije u (stabilniju) valutu (Baur, Dimpfl, 2021: 2668-2669).

Ipak, u vremenima kada njegova volatilna priroda dolazi do izražaja, izuzetno je važno razumeti šta deflatorna priroda bitkoina zapravo znači. Volatilnost je izraz koji opisuje koliko se vrednost sredstva razmene menja tokom vremena, ili preciznije, kojom stopom. Ako deflaciju posmatramo kao apresijaciju vrednosti izazvanu neskladom u ponudi i potražnji koja podiže kurs valute (Antonopoulos, 2014: 180), bitkoin je po prirodi deflatoran, ali i dalje volatilan. Različiti mehanizmi čine ga otpornim na inflaciju. To je tačno čak iako je bitkoin spekulativna imovina ili se barem može tumačiti kao takva (Šoja, Senarathne, 2019: 46) jer nije podržan nikakvom imovinom ili garancijom (Šoja, Senarathne, 2019: 46), niti predstavlja trenutno stanje ekonomije neke zemlje (Vareško, Deković, 2022: 91). Konkretno, vrednost bitkoina nije imuna na sopstvenu depresijaciju, iznenadnu apresijaciju i različite vrste manipulacije. U ovom trenutku, gotovo je nemoguće sprečiti ih jer Bitkoin sistem funkcioniše kao slobodno i u suštini neregulisano (5) tržište. Vremenski trošak korišćenja Bitkoina (Garrat, Wallace, 2018: 1889) je stvarna opasnost i, pored toga, vrednost bitkoina je gotovo potpuno nepredvidiva (Garrat, Wallace, 2018: 1896; Syropyatov, 2021: 320). To dodatno otežava odbranu hipoteze o njegovoj deflatornoj prirodi.

Bilo kako bilo, čak i kada njegova cena dramatično padne, to ne znači da je bitkoin inflatoran. Ovo je ključno razumeti ako želimo da razjasnimo svojstva i pravnu prirodu novčanih obaveza nominovanih u bitkoinu, a posebno ako nameravamo da ih pravilno regulišemo. U tom smislu, ovaj rad je samo uvod u ovu temu.

---

4. Elektronski novac je oblik digitalnog novca i faza u njegovoj evoluciji, a isto su i kriptovalute; ipak, kriptovaluta nije elektronski novac i ne treba je brkati sa elektronskim novcem (Dimitrijević, 2018: 228).

5. Iako postoje nacionalni propisi (Cvetković, 2018: 127-128; Zebec, 2018: 90-93), kao i međunarodni propisi (Cvetković, 2018: 126-127; Mijatović, 2022: 95-100), Bitkoin, i kao sistem i kao valuta, apsolutno je imun na nacionalne i međunarodne propise. Međutim, postoji doza optimizma da stabilni novčići, konceptualno govoreći, mogu da naglase da je optimizacija kreiranja politike pod vođstvom tehnologije zapravo moguća u složenim monetarnim sistemima (Calcaterra, Kaal, Rao, 2020: 194). Ali, adekvatan model prvo mora biti otkriven od strane sudske prakse (Raskin, 2015: 972), a zatim potvrđen u sigurnijem okruženju, kao što su „Sandbox“ ili „Innovation Hubs“ (Jović, Nikolić, 2022: 48-51).

---

2. Fiksna ponuda

Bitkoin je softver otvorenog koda koji se koristi decentralizovanim dizajnom mreže (Caetano, 2015: 103-104; Đorđević, 2018: 97) (6). Tačnije, to je elektronski, dvosmerni, decentralizovani (Đorđević, 2018: 97) platni sistem zasnovan na kriptografskom dokazu (Nakamoto, 2008:1) koji je razvijen sa ciljem isključivanja ovlašćenih posrednika kroz koncept „digitalnog poverenja“ (Cavalheiro, Cavalheiro, 2022: 207; Horvatić, Tafra: 2022 108-109; Syropyatov, 2021: 325) bez kompromitovanja sigurnosti i privatnosti tokom transakcije (7), po nižim troškovima i što je brže moguće (Roth, 2015: 529).

Da bi prenos vrednosti bio moguć, vrednost je morala biti povezana sa sredstvom unutar sistema. Kako je sistem potpuno digitalizovan, ovo sredstvo je moglo postojati samo u digitalnom obliku, tj. virtuelne novčane jedinice predstavljaju vrednost (Đorđević, 2018: 97). Uobičajena je zabluda da je naziv ovog sredstva Bitkoin. Bitkoin je peer-to-peer monetarna mreža, to je program, softver, platforma, ali ne valuta. Bitkoin kao valuta ne postoji izvan ili bilo gde unutar mreže (Cvetković, 2018: 124). Osnovna jedinica ovog platnog sistema je satoši, digitalizovani deo informacije koji je trajno povezan sa digitalnom platformom (Antonopoulos, 2014: xvii, 18, 116). Ipak, iako tehnički netačno, postalo je norma koristiti bitkoin kao jedinicu sa odnosom prema Satošiju od 1:100.000.000 (Radulović, 2021: 32).

---

6. Postoji prirodna tendencija ka monopolu u Mreži (Hutchinson Dowd, 2015: 364-368). Ipak, mogućnost stvaranja apsolutnog monopola je samo teorijska. Kako cela zajednica entuzijasta aktivno koristi prostor preostao za poboljšanje Mreže, postoji niz predloga protokola za rudarenje („getblocktemplate“ je najuspešniji) koji sprečavaju centralizaciju.

7. Privatnost i sigurnost nisu sinonimi. Ovo su dva različita aspekta efikasnosti platnih sistema, svaki sa svojim prepoznatljivim individualnim karakteristikama (Karame, Androulaki, 2016: 14-17).

---

Da bismo razumeli ovaj koncept, možemo uporediti bitkoin sa tradicionalnim načinima izvršavanja novčanih obaveza (Cvetković, 2018: 121; Đorđević, 2018: 100-102). Po svojim karakteristikama, bitkoin je u suštini negde između zlata i dolara (Syropyatov, 2021: 323) ali primarna ideja je bila da se stvori digitalna imovina koja imitira zlato. Najlakši način da se novostvorenoj imovini da vrednost je da se učini retkom. Stoga su protokoli Bitkoin mreže postavljeni tako da ukupna ponuda bude pažljivo izračunata, konačna i ograničena (8). Fiksiranjem ukupnog broja bitkoina u opticaju na 21.000.000, početni izdavalac i pronalazač rešio je dva glavna problema – dodatno izdavanje i falsifikovanje (Garrat, Wallace, 2018: 1887). Dakle, „štampanje“ novog novca u Bitkoin mreži iznad očekivane stope izdavanja je nemoguće što znači da bitkoin kao valuta nije podložan inflaciji (Antonopoulos, 2014: 2).

Budući da je Bitkoin softver, on nije „ništa više“ od skupa unapred programiranih pravila. Kako se ta pravila mogu ažurirati, tehnički postoji mogućnost promene izvornog koda kako bi se omogućilo kvantitativno povećanje ponude novčića. Ipak, kako mi to vidimo, ovo je samo teoretski moguće. Zašto?

Bitkoin je konstruisan na revolucionarnoj tehnologiji koja se zove blokčejn. Blokčejn je digitalna baza podataka koja sadrži informacije o svakoj promeni u mreži (Cvetković, 2020: 128; Teomete Yalabik, Yalabik, 2019: 37). Jednom uneti i potvrđeni, podaci o promeni koja se dogodila trajno se čuvaju u bloku, koji se zatim povezuje sa postojećim lancem gde su blokovi ravnomerno poređani, hronološki vremenski obeleženi, suštinski nepromenljivi (Cvetković, 2020: 129; Catanzaro & Kain, 2020: 52; Horvat, Tafra, 2022: 108) (9). Lanac dodatih blokova distribuira se kroz mrežu, a upravljanje njime je u potpunosti zasnovano na konsenzusu (Radulović, 2021: 36) što znači da niko ne vrši kontrolu nad lancem (Magnuson, 2022: 883) (10). Ovo je vrlo važna tačka jer svaki blok u lancu sadrži određeni broj bitkoina, a ukupna ponuda se postepeno povećava konsenzusnim dodavanjem novih blokova (11), ali ne više od 13.230.000 njih.

---

8. Procenjuje se da u svetu postoji 171.000 metričkih tona zlata (Đorđević, 2018:101), ali to je samo pretpostavka. S druge strane, Bitkoin sistem se ne zasniva ni na kakvoj sličnoj pretpostavci. Kreatori sistema su otišli korak dalje i ponudili kriptografsko uverenje o njegovoj ograničenoj ponudi (Cvetković, 2018: 121). To znači da nema opasnosti od bilo kakvih neočekivanih otkrića ove robe koja može doneti nestabilnost monetarnom režimu (Cachanosky, 2019: 371). Takođe, za razliku od zlata, nemoguće je manipulisati „čistoćom“ bitkoina i tako kompromitovati ideju o njegovoj ograničenoj ponudi (Cvetković, 2018:121).

9. Bitkoin koristi blokčejn kao javnu knjigu koja sadrži potpuni zapis svih javnih transakcija u istoriji Bitkoin mreže (Cavalhiero, Cavalhiero, 2022: 209). U tom kontekstu, zanimljivo je da je bitkoin koji je zaplenjen u slučaju „Silk Road“ prebačen u FBI novčanik (lFfmbHfnpaZjKFvyilokTjJJusN455paPH) od strane čvorova putem regularne procedure verifikacije na Bitkoinovom blokčejnu; štaviše, ovaj transfer ali i kasnija aukcija novčića i njihov transfer kupcima je potpuno transparentan i može se pratiti jednostavnom proverom promena u lancu (Raskin, 2015: 982-983).

10. Satoši Nakamoto se povukao iz javnosti u aprilu 2011. godine, prepuštajući odgovornost razvoja koda i mreže rastućoj grupi volontera (Antonopoulos, 2014: 4).

11. Po analogiji sa Fridmanovim "Ostrvom kamenog novca", Bitkoin funkcioniše putem decentralizovane (digitalizovane) kolektivne memorije (Hutchinson & Dowd, 2015: 358).

---

U tradicionalnim ekonomskim sistemima, monetarna vlast garantuje kvalitet, količinu i vrednost novca, dok banke i drugi posrednici vrše kontrolu nad transakcijama (Pernice, 2021: 770). Bitkoin funkcioniše kao protokol, tj. skup unapred programiranih pravila (Raskin, 2015: 971) bez arbitra (Abramowicz, 2015: 3). U Bitkoin mreži ne postoji centralna vlast bilo koje vrste koja nadzire i upravlja platformom (Catanzaro, Kain, 2020: 52; Teomete Yalabik, Yalabik, 2019: 37). Prvo, to znači da ne postoji jedna kritična tačka (eng. single point of failure) (Hutchinson & Dowd, 2015: 359). Drugo, nema potrebe za trećom pouzdanom stranom za sprovođenje procesa registracije i/ili garantovanje tačnosti stanja transakcija, sve to zato što se poverenje u mrežu zasniva na kriptografiji kao nauci (12) (Cvetković, 2018: 121; Dinić, 2014: 110; Đorđević, 2018: 97; McGinnis, 2020: 60; Raskin, 2015: 974). Ovde dolazi do izražaja genijalni koncept: upravljanje je dodeljeno samoj Mreži, zapravo računarima koji vrše proces verifikacije transakcija (Đorđević, 2018: 98; Hutchinson & Dowd, 2015: 360). Iz toga sledi da je sistem gotovo u potpunosti samoregulišući i potpuno decentralizovan. Dalje, ne samo pokrenute transakcije već i svaka druga promena u mreži mora biti rezultat konsenzusa među svim pojedinačnim učesnicima u mreži (naglasak autora). Dakle, da bi se promenio izvorni kod nakon zatvaranja obavezne debate u zajednici, potrebno je da većina čvorova u mreži izrazi svoje odobrenje. Sa desetinama hiljada čvorova koji pokreću mrežu, može se sigurno pretpostaviti da je gotovo nemoguće postići konsenzus za promenu osnovnog protokola koda, posebno dela koji ovaj sistem čini superiornim u odnosu na većinu kripto projekata (13).

Ovaj protokol čini Bitkoin superiornim u odnosu na druge kripto projekte. Naime, ranih 1970-ih postalo je jasno da možda ne postoji bilo kakva prednost niti potreba (barem više ne) za neupitnim i univerzalno prihvaćenim državnim prerogativom proizvodnje novca, te da bi to moglo biti štetno za razvoj nacionalne ekonomije ako se ne podržava valutna konkurentnost (Hayek, 1976: 20). Posebno se ovo odnosi na nacionalne ekonomije koje su potpuno zavisne od strane valute što je bio slučaj u Salvadoru (potpuno zavisan od USD).

---

12. Poverenje u mrežu zavisi od funkcionisanja većine rudarskih računara u mreži. Logičan zaključak koji proizilazi iz ove činjenice ukazuje na to da povećani obim bitkoin transakcija implicira veću sigurnost; povećanje prometa mreže povećava poverenje (Dinić, 2014: 110).

13. Posmatrajući istoriju pokušaja iniciranja čak i „manjih“ tehničkih promena (protokola) oličenih u Bitkoin "hard forkovima" (Bitcoin XT, Bitcoin Classic, SegWit), možemo videti da nijedan od ovih projekata (čak ni „BitcoinCash“) nije nadmašio uspeh i stopu prihvatanja Bitkoin forka.

14. Prateći više od 2000 godina dugu istoriju državnih prerogativa u izdavanju novca, nobelovac Hayek je nabrojao legitimne razloge za dodeljivanje monopola izdavanja novca državnim institucijama (Hayek, 1976: 21-26).

---

Možemo ići čak i dalje. Mogu se izneti snažni argumenti koji podržavaju tvrdnju da se apsolutna državna kontrola nad novcem može tumačiti čak i kao oblik ugnjetavanja koji je ništa manji od uskraćivanja građanskih sloboda (McGinnis, 2020: 60). Iako je „komplementarna valuta“ (Pernice, 2021: 769), bitkoin je najmoćnije oružjeu onome što se čini kao „fundamentalni napad“ na ostatke ove zastarele ugnjetavajuće ideje u modernom monetarnom poretku (McGinnis, 2020: 61).

Ako postoji bilo kakva istina u ovoj smeloj tvrdnji, onda je ograničena ponuda najvažnija karakteristika koja čini bitkoin, ako ne superiornim, onda barem konkurentnim fiat valutama [15]. Ovo je posebno tačno ako imamo u vidu kolektivno ukidanje monetarnog aranžmana iz Breton Vudsa i zlatnog standarda koji su, prema ekonomskim ekspertima (Syropyatov, 2021: 324), započeli inflatornu eru u ekonomskoj istoriji. Stoga, ne postoji ekonomska ili pravna logika koja bi opravdala transformaciju sistema iz „digitalnog zlata“ u nejedinstveni kvazi-demokratski fiat monetarni poredak, posebno među čvorovima koji su generalno pravi entuzijasti „decentralizovanih finansija“ [16].

---

1. Ideja Bitkoina duboko je ukorenjena u Austrijskoj ekonomskoj školi mišljenja koja je poznata po oštroj kritici državnih intervencija koje zapravo pogoršavaju ekonomske i poslovne cikluse i uzrokuju značajnu inflaciju (Zebec, 2018:89).

2. Bitkoin mreža ne nameće protokole i pravila članovima koji se ne slažu sa njima. Omogućava im da se bezbedno odvoje iniciranjem takozvanog "hard forka". Postoji čak i poseban deo softvera nazvan Git ugrađen u mrežu, kreiran da omogući korisnicima forkovanje izvornog koda (Caetano, 2015:104-105). Rezultat je više od stotinu (manje-više poznatih i uspešnih) projekata u kripto prostoru koji su započeti na ovaj način – kao Bitkoin fork (Caetano, 2015: 104).

---

3. Halving

Kreator(i) Bitkoina su imali za cilj da stvore digitalnu imovinu koja se ponaša kao zlato [17]. Stoga su doneli ideološku odluku da ne puste sav bitkoin u opticaj odjednom (Cachanosky, 2019: 371). Ukupan broj bitkoina je unapred određen ali je raspored njegovog stvaranja fiksiran (Raskin, 2015: 971) jer je mreža postavljena tako da može postupno povećavati ponudu novčića po opadajućoj stopi kroz proces nazvan „rudarenje“.

Odgovornost dodavanja verifikovanih transakcija u blok i ažuriranja lanca blokova poverena je posebnoj grupi učesnika mreže – rudarima. Da bi izvršili dodeljeni zadatak, rudari moraju rešiti niz složenih matematičkih problema što zahteva ogromnu računarsku snagu. Da bi ih podstakao da svoju računarsku snagu stave na raspolaganje za potrebe mreže, u Bitkoin protokol je ugrađen sistem „dvostruke nagrade“. Prvo, rudar prikuplja mali procenat svake transakcije koja je upisana u novokreirani blok. Pored toga, „pobednički“ rudar dobija novi bitkoin od mreže kao nagradu kada se transakcija „coin base“ postavi u novi blok (Antonopoulos, 2014: 115: Hutchinson & Dowd, 2015: 361; Nakamoto, 2008:4). To znači da izdavalac bitkoina nije banka, vlada, nadzorna institucija, pojedinac ili kompanija; izdavaoci su sami korisnici (Dinić, 2014: 110). Trećeg januara 2009. godine, iskopan je „genesis blok“ (Horvatić, Tarfa, 2022:107-108). Rudar(i) ovog bloka su dobili 50 bitkoina. Od tog trenutka, svaki put kada je kreiran novi blok, rudar je dobijao 50 novostvorenih bitkoina.

Ukupna ponuda raste postepeno ali ne istom brzinom. Kao što je već napomenuto, svaki blok sadrži određeni broj bitkoina, a ukupna ponuda novčića se povećava dodavanjem novih blokova. Međutim, blokovi nemaju isti kapacitet, tj. ne sadrže istu količinu bitkoina. Mreža je unapred programirana, najpre da smanji nagradu rudarima za 50% nakon svakih 210.000 dodatih blokova, ali i da prilagodi složenost matematičkog problema količini koja je već iskopana, tako da novi blok od 1MB koji sadrži otprilike 4000 upisanih transakcija (Horvatić, Tafra, 2022:109) nastaje u proseku svakih deset minuta (Antonopoulos, 2014:2, 177-178; Đorđević, 2018:97-98; Raskin, 2015:976; Roth, 2015:528). Jednostavna matematika pokazuje da se nagrada za rudarenje smanjuje otprilike svake četiri godine. Od 11. maja 2020. godine, nagrada za rudarenje po bloku iznosi 6.25 bitkoina. Stopa po kojoj se novi blokovi (pa samim tim i bitkoini) dodaju postojećem lancu postepeno se smanjuje (dok ne dostigne broj od 21.000.000).

Čin smanjenja rudarske nagrade za polovinu naziva se „halving“. Ideja iza procesa halvinga bila je da se bitkoin oponaša zlato čak i kada je u pitanju dinamika njegovog iskopavanja (Đorđević, 2018: 98). Sa ekonomskog i pravnog stanovišta, kroz proces halvinga, deflatorna priroda bitkoina dolazi do izražaja jer se već ograničena ponuda novčića dodatno smanjuje. Radi poređenja, u vreme pisanja ovog rada, više od 18.5 miliona (od 21 miliona) bitkoina je pušteno u opticaj, ali će poslednji bitkoin biti pušten u opticaj kada se iskopa blok 13.230.000. Prateći dinamiku Mreže, procenjuje se da će se to dogoditi otprilike 2137. godine (Antonopoulos, 2014:178; Raskin, 2015:976). To znači da je procenat inflacije kontrolisan, ne samo kroz konačnu ponudu već i kroz 64 događaja halvinga, nakon čega se stopa izdavanja novog bitkoina smanjuje.

---

17. "Bitkoin pravilo, logo i tekstualni opis sugerišu da je projekat inspirisan zlatnim standardom. Uzmite u obzir, na primer, da se Bitkoini proizvode kroz proces nazvan „rudarenje“ sa opadajućim prinosima koji podseća na vađenje zlata iz podzemlja, te da je logo zlatnik" (Cachanosky, 2019: 371).

---

4. Superhalving

Bitkoin je prvi put priznat kao novac na osnovu regulatornog stanovišta "Mreže za suzbijanje finansijskog kriminala" (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) (Mirjanich, 2014: 214), zatim u sudskoj praksi u čuvenim slučajevima „Silk Road“ (Raskin, 2015: 981-982; Zebec, 2018: 89) i u slučaju SEC protiv Shaversa (Raskin, 2015: 979-980). Ipak, iako nije pogrešno smatrati bitkoin valutom, kao što je već napomenuto, mi volimo da razmišljamo o Bitkoinu kao o sistemu plaćanja. To je bila prvobitna ideja (Syropyatov, 2021: 325) i Bitkoin je zapravo korišćen u tom svojstvu u prvim godinama, uglavnom za male online transakcije (Vareško, Deković, 2022: 91).

Pravi potencijal ovog sistema, koji je sam po sebi impresivan, može se u potpunosti shvatiti samo ako se posmatra kao deo budućeg decentralizovanog finansijskog sistema (DeFi). U svojim brojnim predavanjima i intervjuima, Antonopoulos pruža sjajnu analogiju upoređujući DeFi prostor sa internetom iz ranih dana. U toj analogiji, Bitkoin se poredi sa elektronskom poštom koji je bio prva i (dugo vremena) jedina funkcionalna aplikacija na internetu. U DeFi prostoru, Bitkoin je prva i (na mnogo načina) najvažnija, ali ne i jedina funkcionalna aplikacija. Upravo način na koji Bitkoin mreža koristi tehnologiju distribuirane knjige (eng. distributed ledger) nije ništa drugo do jedan mogući prikaz istinskog potencijala neverovatnog dela računarskog inženjeringa zvanog blokčejn. Imajući u vidu bezbroj funkcija interneta danas, ova analogija nudi najbolji uvid u razmere i potencijal DeFi prostora.

Korišćenje ove i drugih srodnih tehnologija svakako prevazilazi stvaranje različitih platnih, pa čak i finansijskih sistema. Blokčejn tehnologija i kriptovalute, protokoli decentralizacije uopšte, deo su dugoročnog ciklusa proliferacije i imaju priliku i kapacitet da dalje prošire inovacije i mogućnosti koje su započete u ranim godinama interneta (Calcaterra, Kaal, Rao, 2020: 204; Syropyatov, 2021: 320). Sa pravnog stanovišta, nema sumnje da će blokčejn tehnologija reorganizovati svaku aktivnost koja zahteva javni prikaz informacija (Cvetković, 2018: 122). Takođe ima kapacitet da reformiše sve aktivnosti oko donošenja odluka od strane sporog i skupog državnog aparata kroz „peer-to-peer“ odlučivanje (Abramowitz, 2015: 7-9). Predstavlja izazov konvencionalnoj pretpostavki da su centralizovane institucije, poput zakonodavnih tela i sudova, potrebne za donošenje zakona dovoljne jasnoće da bi bili primenljivi (Abramowitz, 2015: 9). Konačno, dokazano je da je blokčejn tehnologija suštinska za budući razvoj današnjih opšteprihvaćenih ideja, poput IoT (Interneta stvari) i IoE (Interneta svega) (Horvat, Tafra, 2022: 108). Dakle, koliko god da su impresivni, čak i DeFi prostor, IoT ili IoE biće samo fragmenti, ili aplikacije takozvanog „Web 3.0“."

„Međutim, ako to posmatramo strogo sa monetarnog stanovišta, verujemo da je postojeći centralizovani finansijski sistem zastareo, neefikasan, nepouzdan i nepotrebno skup; kao takav, biće zamenjen efikasnijom ekonomskom strukturom. Naučno je dokazano da sadašnja veličina tržišta kriptovaluta i njegova rastuća snaga imaju kapacitet da poremete čitav finansijski sistem (Vareško, Deković, 2022:91). Sa ideološkog stanovišta, DeFi sistem izgleda kao najočiglednija zamena. Međutim, u ovom trenutku, više od decenije nakon što je Bitkoin mreža postala potpuno operativna, DeFi struktura zvuči pomalo futuristički. Ipak, obrisi sistema su sada jasno vidljivi. Određeni delovi sistema su više nego funkcionalni, a efekti koje stvaraju oživljavaju osnovnu ideju DeFi-ja. To je vidljivo u procesu zvanom „superhalving“.

Prema našem saznanju, termin superhalving je prvi put korišćen u biltenu koji je svetski poznati stručnjak za kriptovalute Teeka Tiwari poslao svojim čitaocima i pretplatnicima. Da bi objasnio svoje otkriće, koristio je analogiju sa halvingom. Superhalving se odnosi na smanjenje broja novčića u opticaju ali, za razliku od halvinga, superhalving nije vezan za Bitkoin kod. Prema gospodinu Tiwariju, to je hipotetička situacija povezana sa mogućnostima koje rudari sada imaju u DeFi ekosistemu (Tiwari, 2021).

Rudari obezbeđuju računarsku snagu neophodnu za funkcionisanje Bitkoin blokčejna, a podsticaj za raspodelu njihovih računarskih resursa Mreži dolazi u obliku novoizdatog bitkoina. Donedavno, rudari nisu bili u poziciji da zadrže novčiće kojima su nagrađivani. Da bi ostali u „trci“ za novim novčićima u sve konkurentnijem okruženju, nisu imali drugog izbora osim da prodaju zarađene novčiće kako bi finansirali nadogradnju računarskih resursa za dalje operacije. To je bila njihova jedina opcija jer vlasništvo bilo koje vrste kripto-imovine nije značilo ulaz u (tradicionalne) izvore kapitala (Tiwari, 2021).

Danas je situacija izvanredno drugačija. Prvo, finansijske institucije su sada visoko uključene u kripto-tržište (Magnuson, 2022: 884). One nude finansijske usluge i stvaraju visoko profitabilne prostore za svoje klijente u vezi sa Bitkoinom, Ethereumom i drugim projektima. Drugo, fondovi kojima se trguje na berzi, kripto-menjačnice i rudari, svi koji služe industriji kriptovaluta, razvili su se u velike industrije (Magnuson, 2022: 884). Prema Tiwariju, rudari su po prvi put u mogućnosti da prikupe novac putem tržišta kapitala. Prema njegovoj studiji, rudari i kripto-kompanije su već prikupili više od deset puta više kapitala za svoje buduće poduhvate nego prethodnih godina (Tiwari, 2021).“

Nadalje, rudari danas čak ne moraju da imaju pristup investicionim bankama, kapitalnim fondovima ili drugim odabranim institucijama ili individualnim investitorima. Slično Bitkoinu, DeFi je monetarno inkluzivan prostor u apsolutnom smislu. Preko alternativnog decentralizovanog modela finansija zasnovanog na blokčejnu, moguće je zaobići nepotrebne posrednike i ući u virtuelne peer-to-peer kapitalne odnose. Moguće je pozajmljivati, štedeti, zakazivati plaćanja, trgovati, kupovati osiguranje, investirati, dokazivati vlasništvo, pa čak i automatski rebalansirati portfolio na finansijskom tržištu koje je uvek otvoreno, potpuno decentralizovano, izuzetno sigurno i gotovo potpuno imuno na ljudske greške. Pomoću inovativnog investicionog aparata, ovaj finansijski ekosistem čini prikupljanje kapitala jednostavnim, neformalnim, direktnim i samim tim jeftinijim za rudare širom sveta, i svakoga ko želi da finansira svoje buduće ideje i poduhvate. Kroz kriptovalute, pametne ugovore i tokene kreirane na različitim blokčejn platformama za potencijalne investitore i finansijere, bez obzira na to gde se trenutno nalaze, rudari mogu obezbediti neophodan kapital za ažuriranje svoje opreme za rudarenje ili druge aktivnosti. To dalje znači da rudari ne moraju odmah da prodaju bitkoin koji su dobili kao nagradu za rudarenje. Oni ga sada mogu zadržati (što najčešće i čine) sa namerom da alociraju svoj portfolio, realno očekujući da će mu cena porasti. To znači još manje novčića u opticaju, posledično smanjenu ponudu i konačno nižu stopu inflacije. Ukratko, ovo je proces superhalvinga.

Smatramo da je ideja superhalvinga veoma zanimljiva. Ipak, iako je dobro razrađena, verujemo da se ovaj fenomen može i treba tumačiti u širem smislu nego što je sugerisao Tiwari. On ne mora biti strogo povezan samo sa izgradnjom novog kripto-finansijskog digitalnog sveta i prilikama u njemu. Druge okolnosti mogu stvoriti sličan efekat i uzrokovati smanjenje prometa bitkoina. One bi trebalo da se istražuju pod istim imeniocem, tj. superhalvingom. U tom kontekstu, možemo pomenuti dve okolnosti koje imaju najveći deflatorni uticaj na tržište.

Prvo, u tehničkom smislu, Bitkoin se može tumačiti na različite načine: kao softver, kao mreža, kao aplikacija. U ekonomskom smislu, bitkoin može preuzeti ulogu valute, platnog sistema, (digitalne) imovine, pa čak i ulogu robe ili sirovine (Cvetković, 2018:129-133; Pernice, 2021:772). Uzimajući u obzir njegovu primenljivost i ulogu generalno, različite studije su nedvosmisleno potvrdile da se bitkoin konstantno razvijao (18) (Vareško, Deković, 2022:91). Postao je raznovrsniji i globalizovaniji (Karabulut, Sari, 2022: 56). S obzirom na to da je ideja iza stvaranja ovog sistema bila da se transfer vrednosti učini što efikasnijim, odnosno da platni sistem bude efektivan, sve veća rasprostranjenost bitkoina potvrđuje da se on može okarakterisati kao kolektivno priznati medij razmene (Pernice, 2021:777). Međutim, u ovom trenutku postoje kripto-projekti koji omogućavaju efikasniju, bržu i jeftiniju alokaciju vrednosti; stoga se bitkoin retko koristi u tu svrhu. Ipak, bitkoin ima niz superiornih karakteristika (redak je; ima ograničenu ponudu i predodređenu smanjenu stopu izdavanja; omogućava privatnost, poverljivost i stoga je imun na zaplenu; lako je 'prenosiv', lako se skladišti i zahteva malo ili nimalo održavanja; prilično je jednostavan za korišćenje i nije ničija obaveza). Zahvaljujući ovim karakteristikama, bitkoin se ponaša kao digitalno zlato i uglavnom se koristi kao sredstvo očuvanja vrednosti. Drugim rečima, uprkos očiglednoj volatilnosti, i deflatorni dizajn Bitkoina i njegova decentralizovana i globalna priroda poboljšavaju njegove osobine sredstva očuvanja vrednosti (Baur, Dimpfl, 2021:2681). Stoga, bitkoin se većinom traži više kao imovina nego kao valuta, pa se uglavnom ponaša kao sredstvo očuvanja vrednosti (Đorđević, 2018:100). Ovo posebno postaje očigledno u vremenima ekonomskih, geopolitičkih ili zdravstvenih kriza, kao što je ona izazvana pandemijom SARS-CoV-2, ili tekuća energetska kriza.

---

18. To je nedvosmisleno potvrđeno sveobuhvatnom studijom o broju patenata strogo vezanih za Bitkoin i njegov lanac (Cavalhiero, Cavalhiero, 2022: 211-216).

---

Zbog toga pojedinci, velike finansijske institucije, kompanije, pa čak i neke vlade uključuju određeni iznos bitkoina u svoje portfelje kako bi zaštitile svoju štednju i investicije. Oni se osiguravaju od inflacije jer se očekuje da se imovina poput zlata ponaša suprotno akcijama i fiat valutama u vremenima kriza. Naučna istraživanja potvrđuju da diverzifikacija portfelja putem bitkoina (ako su uključena i tradicionalna sredstva) može biti odličan izbor ulaganja čak i za one investitore koji nisu skloni preuzimanju viših rizika (Syropyatov, 2021:323; Šoja, Senarathne, 2019:54-58). To znači da svi ti entiteti ne kupuju bitkoine (ili ih u ređem slučaju rudare) sa namerom da ih koriste za plaćanje ili prenos vrednosti. Oni preferiraju dugoročno držanje umesto vršenja transakcija i puštanja u opticaj, što dovodi do ukupnog smanjenja ponude. Budući da je ovo prirodna tendencija u mreži, sigurno je reći da je i ovo vrsta superhalvinga.

Na kraju, postoji još jedna tendencija u kripto ekosistemu koja se može tumačiti kao oblik superhalvinga, a time i deflatorni mehanizam, iako je prilično slučajna. Kao što je već napomenuto, bitkoin je prilično jednostavan za korišćenje, skladištenje i održavanje. Međutim, neophodan je određeni stepen praktičnog znanja. Bitkoin može postati nedostupan ako se 'novčanikom' (hardverskim ili online) loše upravlja. Najčešći način da se bitkoin učini nedostupnim jeste da se izgubi.

U stvari, nemoguće je izgubiti bitkoin jer su novčići trajno povezani sa mrežom. U svakom trenutku, učesnici Mreže mogu odrediti na kojoj se adresi nalazi svaki pojedinačni novčić. Ali tada, privatni ključevi koji omogućavaju pristup novčićima sačuvanim na određenoj adresi su „simbol“ vlasništva (Raskin, 2015: 977, 1002) i oni se mogu izgubiti (Hutchinson Dowd, 2015:361). Bitkoin „novčanici“, naročito hardverski, takođe se mogu izgubiti. Prema procenama, oko 20% bitkoina koji su pušteni u opticaj postalo je trajno nedostupno (Mijatović, 2022:103). Dalje, razumno je očekivati da će se više bitkoina „izgubiti“ tokom vremena; stoga, stvarna ponuda bitkoina, iako nepoznata zbog rizika od trajnog gubitka (Hutchinson & Dowd, 2015: 361), definitivno je manja nego što je prethodno programirano i postepeno će se smanjivati. To čini bitkoin još deflatornijim nego što se ranije predviđalo.

5. Zaključci

Dobro je poznata činjenica da je novac obično, ali ne nužno, podložan državnom monopolu (Pernice, 2021: 773). Do nedavno, šira javnost nije bila spremna da preispituje dogmu o povlašćenosti vlada da „proizvode” novac (Hayek, 1976:20). Danas, šira javnost nije voljna da bezuslovno prihvati koncept lex monetae i državni monopol na izdavanje novca. Konkurentske ideje su dobro formulisane, a relevantni izvori su „na samo nekoliko klikova”. Ipak, ideja predstavljena u belom papiru pod naslovom „Bitkoin: Peer-to-peer sistem elektronskog novca" je nesumnjivo najinspirativnija. Nedavno sprovedena sveobuhvatna statistička analiza potvrđuje da je ovo opšte mišljenje u akademskim krugovima (Karabulut, Sari, 2022: 58-66). Čak i kritičari tehno-ekonomske arhitekture Bitkoina slažu se da Bitkoin nedvosmisleno demonstrira praktičnu mogućnost potpuno decentralizovanog monetarnog sistema zasnovanog prvenstveno na distribuiranom poverenju (Hutchinson & Dowd, 2015:380).

Iako se stabilni novčići nazivaju „Hayekovim novcem” (Syropyatov, 2021: 322-323), oni koji su podržani plemenitim metalima (kao što je zlato), ali prvenstveno oni koji su podržani matičnim fiat valutama, ne mogu se koristiti za konačnu implementaciju Hayekove teorije u realnoj ekonomiji (Syropyatov, 2021: 328). Verujemo da je upravo Bitkoin pravo oličenje stare ideje o izdavanju različitih vrsta novca koje predstavljaju različite apstraktne jedinice koje fluktuiraju u svojoj vrednosti jedna u odnosu na drugu (Hayek, 1976: 25) i koje se jasno mogu razlikovati po različitim denominacijama između kojih bi javnost mogla slobodno da bira (Hayek, 1976: 21). Ceo Bitkoin sistem promoviše ovu ideju na način kao nijedno drugo sredstvo nalik novcu nikada ranije. Štaviše, oslanjajući se isključivo na napredne tehnološke koncepte, Bitkoin ne zavisi od bilo kakve državne dozvole i nije ograničen državnim granicama (19). Ovaj intrigantni sistem je bezbroj puta testiran na stres. Iako nije u potpunosti stabilan i daleko je od savršenog, sve turbulencije su sistem učinile samo otpornijim. To se ne može reći za njegove direktne konkurente – valute koje izdaju države. Zapravo je sasvim suprotno. U kratkom vremenskom periodu, posebno od trenutka kada je Svetska zdravstvena organizacija prepoznala izbijanje pandemije SARS-CoV-2 izazvane novim tipom koronavirusa, bitkoin je transformisan iz potkulturnog fenomena u najpopularniju i najcenjeniju (digitalnu) imovinu za ne više od nekoliko meseci. Sama priroda pandemije SARS-CoV-2, prvenstveno potreba za ograničavanjem fizičkog kontakta, pogodovala je digitalizaciji svih modela obavljanja svakodnevnih aktivnosti i posledično stvorila savršeno okruženje za sve kripto-projekte (Mijatović, 2022:94). Ipak, sama činjenica da je bitkoin na slobodnom tržištu oko 20.000 puta vredniji od USD sugeriše da tu ima još mnogo toga. Ovo važi bez obzira na to da li se bitkoin percipira kao novac ili ne.

Teorija konkurentskih valuta, posebno valuta koje ne izdaju države ili bilo koji centralni autoritet, pokazala se održivom - u najmanju ruku. Zapravo, ako s jedne strane imamo centralizovan i prisilan poredak, a s druge strane dobrovoljan i decentralizovan sistem (McGinnis, 2020: 59), čini se da „dobrovoljni sporazum o korišćenju određenog predmeta kao sredstva plaćanja“ (Đorđević, 2018:97; McGinnis, 2020:61) može čak biti superiorniji od dogme „valutnog monopola“. Ipak, kako mi to vidimo, otkrivanje deflatornih mehanizama ugrađenih u izvorni kod Bitkoina i njihovo prepoznavanje kao nepromenljivih od strane šire javnosti, najveća je tajna njegovog uspeha. Očigledno, ovo nije jedina zanimljiva karakteristika Bitkoin sistema, ali u vremenima kriza poput one izazvane virusom SARS-CoV-2 i njegovim brojnim varijantama, te karakteristike dolaze do izražaja, posebno kada se uporede sa načinom funkcionisanja „imperativnih“ valuta. U svakom slučaju, ovo zapažanje je podržano sudskom praksom. U određenim slučajevima, sudovi su precizno naveli da je bitkoin po prirodi deflatoran i da bi mogao biti bolje skladište vrednosti od brojnih zvaničnih valuta širom sveta koje su veoma podložne inflaciji (Pernice, 2021: 778).

Bitkoin sistem dovodi u pitanje univerzalno prihvaćenu ideju državnog suvereniteta po pitanju izdavanja novca. Teoretski, Bitkoin ne potkopava monetarni suverenitet; u stvari, zajednica čak može doprineti ostvarivanju ove vrste suvereniteta dajući poverenje sredstvu razmene koje se razlikuje od zakonski nametnutih (Pernice, 2021: 775). Prirodno je da ovaj pristup deluje sumnjivo, još više zato što ovaj sistem ne nudi odgovore na sva pitanja koja se javljaju na potpuno decentralizovanom i neregulisanom tržištu slobodnih valuta. Ipak, ovo je fascinantan finansijski sklop. Brojne tehnološke i ekonomske karakteristike čine ga privlačnim za sve one koji su željni da istraže moguće alternative dominaciji države u ovoj oblasti. Na pitanje da li su te alternative održive i u kojoj meri - ostaje da se odgovori. Ipak, zaista verujemo da deflatorni mehanizmi, čak i jednostavni poput onih ugrađenih u Bitkoin sistem, moraju biti dobrodošli kao parametri u trenutnoj ili sledećoj fazi evolucije novca i monetarnih obaveza.

Reference

• Abramowicz, M. B. (2015). Peer-to-Peer Law, Built on Bitcoin. GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper 2015-9, GWU Legal Studies Research Paper. No. 2015-9, Retrieved 02 March 2023 from https: ssrn.com/abstract=2573788 or http: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2573788
• Antonopoulos, M. A. (2014). Mastering Bitcoin: Unlocking Digital Cryptocurrencies. Sebastopol: O’Reilly Media, Inc
• Baur, D. G., Dimpfl, T. (2021). The volatility of Bitcoin and its role as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Empirical Economics. 61 (5). 2663–2683.
• Cachanosky, N. (2019). Can Bitcoin become money? The monetary rule prob- lem. Australian Economic Papers. 58 (4). 365–374.
• Caetano, R. (2015). Learning Bitcoin. Birmingham: Packt Publishing
• Calcaterra, C., Kaal, W. A., Rao, V. (2020). Stable Cryptocurrencies. Washington University Journal of Law & Policy. 61, 193-227
• Catanzaro, Z. L., Kain, R. (2020). The Revolution Will Be Memorialized: Selected Blockchain-Based Smart Contract Use Cases. Florida Bar Journal. 94 (5). 52–56
• Cavalheiro, G. M. do C., Cavalheiro, M. B. (2022). Assessing technological trends through patent landscaping: The case of Bitcoin. Journal of World Intellectual Property. 25 (1). 206–219
• Cvetković, M. (2018). Novčane obaveze i kriptovalute. Zbornik radova Pravnog fakulteta u Nišu. 57 (81). 119-138
• Cvetković, P. (2020). Blokčejn kao pravni fenomen – uvodna razmatranja. Zbornik radova Pravnog fakulteta u Nišu. 59 (87). 127-144
• Dimitrijević, M. (2018). Elektronski novac u savremenom monetarnom pravu. Zbornik radova Pravnog fakulteta u Nišu. 57 (81). 221-236
• Dinić, V. (2014). Bitkojn kao decentralizovana valuta. Bankarstvo. 43 (2). 108-137
• Đorđević, A. (2018). The Application of Advanced Technologies in the Field of International Finances: Bitcoin Phenomenon. Ekonomika. 64 (1). 95-104
• Garratt, R., Wallace, N. (2018). Bitcoin 1, Bitcoin 2, An Experiment in Privately Issued outside Monies. Economic Inquiry. 56(3). 1887-1897
• Hayek, F. A. (1976). Denationalization of Money (An Analysis of the Theory and Practice of Concurrent Currencies). London: The Institute of Economic Affairs. Retrieved 10 March 2023 from https: iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/ Denationalisation%20of%20Money.pdf
• Horvatić, H., Tafra, V. (2022). Identifikacija komercijalne blockchain tehnologi- je te izazovi i opasnosti primjene kroz konkretne primjere. Obrazovanje za poduzetništvo - E4E. 12 (2), 105-120
• Hutchinson, M., Dowd, K. (2015). Bitcoin Will Bite the Dust. CATO Journal. 35 (2). 357–38. Retrieved 1 March 2022; https: www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/ serials/files/cato-journal/2015/5/cj-v35n2-12.pdf
• Jović, Ž., Nikolić, I. (2022). The Darker Side of Fintech: the Emergence of New Risks. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business. 25 (SCI). 46-63
• Karabulut, T. Sari, S.S. (2022). The attitude of academic staff towards Bitcoin. Ekonomski vjesnik. 35 (1), 55-67
• Karame, G., Androulaki, E. (2016). Bitcoin and Blockchain Security. Boston, London: Artech House
• Magnuson, J. W. (2022). The Failure of Market Efficiency. Brigham Young Univer- sity Law Revew. 48 (3). 827-908 Retrieved 21 April 2023 from https: papers. ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4096270
• McGinnis, J. O. (2020). Bitcoin’s Nature and Its Future. Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy. 43 (1). 59–66. Retrieved 11 February 2022 from https: ezproxy. nb.rs:2076/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=141404064&site=eds-live
• Mijatović, N. (2022). Pravna (ne)uređenost kriptovaluta i njihov utjecaj na in- dustriju osiguranja. Hrvatski časopis za OSIGURANJE. (6). 93-106
• Mirjanich, N. (2014). Digital Money: Bitcoin’s Financial and Tax Future despite Regulatory Uncertainty. DePaul Law Review. 64 (1). 213–248
• Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A Pear-to-Pear Electronic Cash System. [Electronic version]. Retrieved 29 January 2021 from https: bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
• Pernice, C. (2021). Bitcoin: Civil Law Topics and Issues. Italian Law Journal. 7(2). 769–802
• Radulović, S. (2021). Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Clauses. Zbornik radova Prav- nog fakulteta u Nišu. 60 (93). 29-44
• Raskin, M. I. (2015). Realm of the Coin: Bitcoin and Civil Procedure. Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law. 20 (4). 969–1011
• Roth, N. (2015). An Architectural Assessment of Bitcoin: Using the Systems Modeling Language. Procedia Computer Science. 44. 527-536.
• Syropyatov. V. A. (2021). Stablecoins as an implementation of Hayek’s private money theory. Russian Journal of Economics and Law. (2). 318–331. Retrieved 10 March 2023, from https: doi.org/10.21202/1993-047X.15.2021.2.318-331
• Šoja, T., Senarathne, C. W. (2019). Bitcoin i diversifikacija portfolija - perspektiva globalnog investitora. Bankarstvo. 48 (4), 44-63
• Teomete Yalabık, F., Yalabık, İ. (2019). Anonymous Bitcoin v enforcement law. In- ternational Review of Law, Computers & Technology. 33(1), 34–52 Retrieved 13 January 2023 from https: ezproxy.nb.rs:2076/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bu h&AN=134805585&site=eds-live
• Tiwari, T. (2021). The Super Halving Explained. Palm Beach Daily, editors letter to subscribers dated 18.05.2021.
• Turudić, D.A., Milić, J., Štulina, K. (2017) Korištenje kriptovaluta u međunarod- nom poslovanju. Zbornik sveučilišta Libertas. 1-2 (1-2). 191-210
• Vareško, A., Deković, D. (2022). Utjecaj pandemije COVID 19 na povezanost kretanja cijena bitcoina i vodećih svjetskih burzovnih indeksa. Zbornik radova Međimurskog veleučilišta u Čakovcu. 13 (2). 89-99
• Zebec, S. (2018). Pravna regulacija bitcoina i ostalih virtualnih valuta u nekim neeuropskim zemljama i hrvatskom zakonodavstvu. Zbornik radova Međimur- skog veleučilišta u Čakovcu. 9 (1). 87-91

@ f4a890ce:af88c4aa

執行摘要

市場經歷回調後進入盤整期，總市值維持在3.24兆美元，成交量與交易活躍度持續走弱，顯示投資人正等待新方向。本週建議聚焦以下數據：

比特幣關鍵支撐與壓力區:URPD密集支撐帶104,000美元下方，若價格跌破需提防市場加速回調；反之，若重回105,000美元以上，將確認技術反彈啟動。

現貨買盤動能指標:持續追蹤 Coinbase Premium Index、Korea Premium Index 是否維持正值，這將反映全球主力市場現貨買盤是否仍具支撐力。

ETF 資金動向:上週 BTC ETF 出現大幅流出，若本週流出持續，可能進一步壓抑市場信心；相對地，ETH ETF 資金流入能否維持，將是觀察主流資金偏好的重點。

---

加密市場

本週加密貨幣市場總市值維持在 3.29 兆美元 左右，顯示市場基本面仍具穩定性。與此同時，當週總成交量下降至 617.22 億美元，反映出市場活躍度有所降低，投資者交易意願趨向謹慎。

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

市場情緒方面，恐懼與貪婪指數為 52，落於中性區間，表明投資者對市場前景沒有明顯的樂觀或悲觀情緒，情緒呈現平穩狀態。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/i/FearGreedIndex

相對強弱指標顯示部分標的處於中性至弱勢區間，暗示短期內市場可能面臨獲利回吐或技術性修正的壓力，動能顯得較為不足。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/i/RsiHeatMap

山寨幣季節指數維持在 20，這表明市場資金依然偏向於比特幣及其他主流加密貨幣，中小型代幣未獲得大量關注。

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-season-index/

穩定幣市值上升至 251.548 億美元，反映出仍然有資金流入，但部分資金正積極尋求避險，或準備在市場調整後抓住更具吸引力的進場時機。

https://defillama.com/stablecoins

小結

本週加密市場總市值保持穩定，但成交量下降與相對強弱指標偏弱顯示市場交易熱情減弱，投資者情緒趨於保守。山寨幣季節指數維持低位，說明資金繼續集中在主流幣種，而穩定幣市值的上升則暗示投資者正在為未來可能的市場調整做準備。

未來，市場動向仍將受到資金流向和宏觀經濟變化的影響，密切關注這些指標將有助於判斷進一步的趨勢。

---

衍生性商品

本週永續合約持倉規模達 143.36B，市場活躍度依舊保持在高水準，顯示出投資者對槓桿交易需求的持續熱情。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/futures/Cryptofutures

當前市場資金費率為 0.0018%（多數交易所均呈正費率），表明市場中多頭情緒仍占上風，因近期價格短時間急跌導致市場資金費率數值不高。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/FundingRate

整體而言，本週總空單爆倉金額為 891.441M，而多單爆倉則達 1563.242M。數據顯示多單在高槓桿環境下的風險較大，特別是在 6 月 12 日與 6 月 13 日，市場出現大量爆倉事件，主要以多單清算為主。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/LiquidationData

清算熱力圖顯示，在約 $111,000 的價格區間，清算金額達到 142.1M，這一水平可能成為近期市場波動的關鍵阻力區，投資者需加以留意。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap

期權市場活躍，投資者在不同價格區間進行對沖與佈局：

$100,000 的看跌期權合約數量達 12.23K，總金額為 $29.37M，顯示部分投資者對市場下跌風險進行了防禦性的配置，短期可以視為支撐區間。

$110,000 的看漲期權合約數量達 13.69K，總金額為 $57.16M，反映出市場對上行潛力仍保持期待，但與看跌期權相比，金額與合約數量略有差距，表明市場預期存在一定分歧。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/options/OIStrike

最大痛點位於 2025/06/27 的 $100,000，對應名義金額達 13.83B。這一數據顯示，在該價位附近存在大量未平倉部位，若市場走向觸發，可能會引起顯著的價格波動。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/options/max-pain

小結

本週加密市場的衍生性商品數據顯示，儘管永續合約持倉依然維持在高位，但資金費率轉為低位正值，加上近期大量多單爆倉事件，市場風險提示逐漸浮現。期權市場則反映出市場參與者在看跌與看漲情緒上的分歧，最大痛點的持倉集中使得 $100,000 成為未來觀察市場動態的重要區間。建議投資者密切關注市場波動，審慎調整槓桿與對沖策略，從而在風險與機會間達成平衡。

---

ETF

本週，加密貨幣衍生性商品市場出現明顯分歧，資金流向呈現不同趨勢。比特幣（BTC）ETF 方面，本週出現資金流出，金額達$47.8M。這一變化顯示，部分投資者對比特幣近期走勢保持謹慎，可能因宏觀經濟不確定性或市場波動風險而選擇調整資金配置。

以太坊（ETH）ETF 則呈現資金流入態勢，本週流入金額$25.3M。這表明，儘管部分資金從比特幣中撤離，但投資者對以太坊的技術升級及生態系統發展持續看好，認為 ETH 具有長期成長潛力。

https://coinmarketcap.com/zh-tw/etf/

小結

總體而言，本週加密貨幣衍生性商品市場展現出資金流向的明顯分歧：比特幣ETF出現淨資金流出，而以太坊 ETF 則錄得流入。投資者在謹慎配置資金以應對市場風險的同時，也在關注標的資產的長期發展潛力。

近期也有許多公司效仿 Strategy 開始囤積加密資產，這也有可能是以太坊 ETF 錄得流入的原因。未來，仍持續關注宏觀經濟及技術革新動態，將有助於更好地掌握市場轉折點與資金流向走勢。

---

鏈上分析 | BTC

二級交易所比特幣儲備量持續下降，再度創下新低，顯示交易所上待售比特幣供給逐步減少，潛在拋壓持續減輕。

https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=all_exchange&window=DAY&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

在地址分布方面，與上週相同，未見任何反轉跡象：10–100 顆的中型持倉地址數量持續探低，而 100–1k、1k–10k、10k 以上顆數的大型與超大型持倉地址數量均維持上升趨勢。

https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/67e2481ba2a7203afd437b31

值得一提的是，除了我們在 CryptoQuant 上觀察到的數據（該平台已排除礦工與交易所地址），BGeometrics 的地址分布資料亦提供另一視角(全網地址)，本週各持倉區間地址數量普遍略減，僅 1 顆 BTC 以下的小額地址呈現增長。

https://charts.bgeometrics.com/bitcoin_distribution_addr_tables.html

特別是 100–1k BTC 的地址數量減幅較為顯著，但從 bitcoinmagazinepro 公布的 Addresses with Balance > 100 BTC 數據來看，大型持倉地址近期呈現積極囤積態勢，顯示市場中大資金仍在持續加倉布局，對中長期市場信心維持正向。

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/addresses-greater-than-100-btc/

雖然近期 100 BTC 以上的地址持續瘋狂囤積比特幣，顯示市場對資產配置的需求大增，但從 Address Net Position BTC 30 days 數據來看，真正能影響市場價格波動與方向的，仍是持倉 1k–10k BTC 的地址群體。這類大戶的持倉變化對市場資金流向具有決定性影響，因此值得高度關注。筆者推測，近期大量囤積約 100 BTC 的地址，很可能是企業或機構出於資產配置需求購買比特幣，以作為對抗市場或宏觀經濟風險的一種策略手段。

100-1k Net Position BTC 30 days :https://charts.bgeometrics.com/reports/bitcoin_shark_30d_sum_g.html

1k-10k Net Position BTC 30 days :https://charts.bgeometrics.com/reports/bitcoin_whale_30d_sum_g.html

URPD 指標顯示市場在經歷回調後，價格依然穩固地維持在籌碼最集中、具備顯著支撐力的區域，這代表大多數投資者的平均持倉成本位於當前價格附近，形成強勁的防守層。

https://charts.bgeometrics.com/distribution_realized_price.html

近期鏈上數據顯示，Coinbase 益價指數在 0.049 以上，而韓國益價指數在 2 的高位，這反映出無論在美國或韓國市場，投資者對比特幣的購買意願仍相對強勁。此現象側面突顯全球主要市場對比特幣的需求支撐力。

Coinbase Premium Index:https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/market-data/coinbase-premium-index?window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

Korea Premium Index:https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/market-data/korea-premium-index?window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

小結

近期比特幣鏈上數據顯示，二級交易所儲備量持續下降，再次創下新低，反映出投資人將資產移出交易所、偏向長期持有的態勢。

地址分布方面，10-100顆的地址數量持續減少，而100-1k、1k-10k與10k以上顆數的地址數量穩步上升，特別是1k-10k的地址，從近30日淨持倉變化可見其對市場影響力仍為主導。

雖然100顆以上地址積極增持，可能代表企業為資產配置、防範風險所為，但尚不足以主導價格走勢。

URPD指標顯示市場回調後價格維持在籌碼最集中區間，支撐明顯。Coinbase 與韓國溢價指數分別穩於 0.049 和 2，顯示美韓市場買盤意願仍強。

整體而言市場結構偏向於短期健康回調，但仍需持續觀察外部宏觀變數對資金流向的影響。

---

總體經濟

聯邦基金有效利率持續維持在 4.33%，這表明在當前高利率政策下，資金成本依然居高不下，對整體風險資產形成持續壓力。

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

隨著 6 月 18 日 FOMC 會議臨近，市場普遍預期當前利率大概率將維持在 4.25%-4.50% 區間；而6 月及 7 月的會議幾乎可以確定不會降息。值得注意的是，目前市場對於 9 月 17 日 會議出現降息一碼的預期已高達 56.8%，這一轉變反映了部分投資者對未來資金回流的期待，同時也透露出市場對持續高利率環境的謹慎態度。

https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-t/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

消費者物價指數 (CPI) 微微上升至 2.38%，顯示通膨壓力還算可控；而失業率則穩定在 4.2%，反映出勞動市場的基本韌性。但在高利率與流動性受限的背景下，這些正面基本面數據未能對加密貨幣價格產生足夠支撐。

失業率:https://www.macromicro.me/series/37/unemployment-rate

消費者物價指數（CPI）:https://www.macromicro.me/series/128/consumer-price-index-sa-yoy

小結

綜合來看，加密市場在高利率政策和緊縮流動性的雙重影響下，短期內仍面臨較大價格波動風險。儘管 6 月和 7 月的會議預期將維持現有利率水平，但 9 月會議中降息一碼的高預期可能為未來市場帶來資金回流的契機。投資者應持續關注 FOMC 會議及最新經濟數據，謹慎調整策略。

---

新聞

美國證券交易委員會主席表示正在為 DeFi 平台製定「創新豁免」政策

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/06/09/u-s-sec-chair-says-working-on-innovation-exemption-for-defi-platforms

彭博：韓國執政黨希望允許公司發行穩定幣

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/06/10/south-koreas-ruling-party-wants-to-allow-companies-to-issue-stablecoins-bloomberg

眾議院標誌著市場結構改革的勝利，參議院開始通過穩定幣法案

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/06/11/senate-begins-passage-of-stablecoin-bill-as-house-marks-market-structure-wins

川普：政府將致力於建立「清晰、簡單」的加密框架

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/06/12/donald-trump-administration-will-work-toward-clear-and-simple-crypto-frameworks

Shopify 將在 Coinbase 平台上為全球商家提供 USDC 支付服務

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/06/12/shopify-to-enable-usdc-payments-on-coinbase-s-base-for-merchants-worldwide

---

@ 3ffac3a6:2d656657

Securely Expose Your LND Node via Cloudflared and a VPS

Introduction & Motivation

Exposing your Lightning Network Daemon (LND) node to the public internet is essential for full participation in the Lightning Network. However, doing so introduces critical challenges in terms of security, privacy, and resilience against attacks.

This guide presents a solution using Cloudflare Tunnel and Cloudflare Access—a modern, secure method to expose services to the internet while maintaining strict control and minimizing exposure. We also compare this approach with more traditional methods such as SSH tunnels and VPNs (WireGuard/OpenVPN + socat/iptables) to highlight the trade-offs.

---

Traditional Exposure Methods: Risks and Limitations

SSH Reverse Tunnels (ssh -R, sshtunnel)

• ✅ Outbound-only: The connection is initiated from the LND host. The VPS cannot reach the internal network on its own.
• ⚠️ Metadata exposure: The LND host's IP address, SSH key, and connection metadata are visible to the VPS.
• ⚠️ Access control is coarse: Without extra measures, any process on the VPS can access the forwarded service.
• ⚠️ No service-layer authentication: Anyone reaching the exposed port can interact with LND, assuming the protocol is known.

VPNs (WireGuard/OpenVPN + iptables or socat)

• ⚠️ Blurs the security boundary: VPNs extend the network perimeter to remote clients. Misconfigured rules can inadvertently expose internal services.
• ❌ Allows lateral movement: If the VPS is compromised, it may gain full access to the LND host’s network.
• ✅ Traffic is encrypted, but requires correct firewalling and routing to be safe.
• ⚠️ Complexity: These setups often involve manual iptables, port forwarding, and tight coupling of services.

---

Cloudflare Tunnel + Access (This Guide)

This solution uses Cloudflared on the LND host to initiate an outbound connection to Cloudflare, which then routes traffic through a secured, authenticated TCP tunnel via a VPS.

• ✅ No exposed ports on the LND host.
• ✅ VPS cannot discover or access the LND IP—only forwards TCP packets to Cloudflare.
• ✅ Service Token authentication ensures only authorized clients can connect.
• ⚠️ Trust in Cloudflare is required. While your LND host is protected from the internet, Cloudflare can see metadata, and potentially, inspect unencrypted traffic.
• ❌ Cloudflare is proprietary infrastructure. You’re protected from attackers, but not necessarily from Cloudflare or governments.

---

Security & Privacy Comparison

| Feature | SSH Tunnel | VPN + socat/iptables | Cloudflare Tunnel + Access | | --------------------------------- | ------------------ | -------------------- | -------------------------- | | Encrypts traffic | ✅ | ✅ | ✅ | | Initiated from LND host | ✅ | ❌ | ✅ | | Prevents VPS from accessing LAN | ✅ | ❌ | ✅ | | Hides LND IP from VPS | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ | | Hides LND IP from tunnel provider | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ | | Proprietary infrastructure | ❌ | ❌ | ⚠️ (Cloudflare) | | Fine-grained access control | ⚠️ (manual) | ⚠️ (manual) | ✅ (Service Token) | | Susceptible to VPS compromise | ⚠️ (metadata only) | ❌ (full access) | ✅ (isolated forwarding) |

---

Tutorial: Step-by-Step Setup

---

1. Set Up the Cloudflare Tunnel

1. In your Cloudflare Zero Trust dashboard, navigate to Access → Tunnels.
2. Create a new tunnel (e.g., lnd-tunnel).
3. Choose Use Token Authentication and copy the token.

4. Add a Public Hostname:

5. Hostname: lnd-external-access.mydomain.com

6. Service Type: TCP
7. URL: tcp://lnd:9735 (This is the internal Docker hostname and port for LND.)

---

2. Run Cloudflared on the LND Host

Assuming your LND node runs in Docker inside the bitcoin-net network:

.env

env TOKEN=your-cloudflare-tunnel-token

docker-compose.yml

```yaml version: "3.8"

services: cloudflared: image: cloudflare/cloudflared:latest command: tunnel --no-autoupdate run --token ${TOKEN} restart: unless-stopped env_file: - .env networks: - bitcoin-net

networks: bitcoin-net: external: true name: bitcoin-net ```

---

3. Create the Cloudflare Service Token

1. Go to Access → Service Auth.
2. Click Create Service Token.
3. Name it (e.g., lnd-access-client) and store both the Token ID and Token Secret—you’ll need these on the VPS and to configure access.

---

4. Define the Cloudflare Access Application

1. Navigate to Access → Applications → Add an Application.
2. Choose Self-hosted.

3. Set:

4. Application Name: lnd-external-access

5. Domain: lnd-external-access.mydomain.com

6. In Policies:

7. Add a policy:

   • Name: Allow via Service Token
   • Action: Service Auth
   • Include → Service Token: select the token you just created

---

5. Deploy the Forwarding VPS

a. Configure firewall:

bash sudo ufw allow ssh sudo ufw allow 9735/tcp sudo ufw enable

b. Set environment variables:

.env

env TOKEN_ID=your-service-token-id TOKEN_SECRET=your-service-token-secret HOSTNAME=lnd-external-access.mydomain.com LISTEN=tcp://0.0.0.0:9735

c. Run Cloudflared:

docker-compose.yml

```yaml version: "3.8"

services: cloudflared: image: cloudflare/cloudflared:latest ports: - 9735:9735 command: > access tcp --service-token-id ${TOKEN_ID} --service-token-secret ${TOKEN_SECRET} --hostname ${HOSTNAME} --url ${LISTEN} --loglevel debug env_file: - .env restart: unless-stopped ```

---

6. Configure DNS

In Cloudflare DNS:

• Create an A record:

• Name: lnd

• Type: A
• Value: VPS_IP
• Proxy status: DNS only

---

7. Configure LND

Edit lnd.conf to include:

ini externalip=lnd.mydomain.com

Restart LND to apply changes.

---

8. Test the Connection

From another LND node or client:

bash lncli connect <pubkey>@lnd.mydomain.com:9735

Check logs in LND and Cloudflared to confirm successful connection.

---

Final Notes

• This method preserves your network perimeter, even if the VPS is compromised.
• All traffic is authenticated with service tokens, and no direct access is possible to your LND host.
• You do trust Cloudflare, so weigh that risk in high-privacy environments.

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

How do you look at the things in your life?

• Do you focus on your physical problems or do you look forward to your resurrection body in heaven?

• Do you spend your time trying to fix the corruption in government or do you spend your time trying to bring as many people as possible home to heaven?

• When you see someone suffering do you first pray for their physical healing or do you pray for their spiritual healing?

• Do you work to fit in with the people around you or do you work to become more Christ-like?

• Do you crave entertainment or do you crave biblical enrichment?

• Do you focus more on your citizenship here on earth or more on your eternal citizenship?

• Do you seek fellowship with the people of this world or do you seek fellowship with your Savior?

• Do you look at people’s faults and how they hurt you or do you look at their hurt and separation from God and seek to bring them to Jesus?

• Do you spend your time on work and entertainment or do you spend your time studying the word of God, praying to God, and telling others about God?

Do you have an earthly or an eternal perspective?

Physical or Spiritual Needs

Jesus always had an eternal perspective. This event is just one example.

One day He was teaching; and there were some Pharisees and teachers of the law sitting there, who had come from every village of Galilee and Judea and from Jerusalem; and the power of the Lord was present for Him to perform healing. And some men were carrying on a bed a man who was paralyzed; and they were trying to bring him in and to set him down in front of Him. But not finding any way to bring him in because of the crowd, they went up on the roof and let him down through the tiles with his stretcher, into the middle of the crowd, in front of Jesus. Seeing their faith, He said, “Friend, your sins are forgiven you.” The scribes and the Pharisees began to reason, saying, “Who is this man who speaks blasphemies? Who can forgive sins, but God alone?” But Jesus, aware of their reasonings, answered and said to them, “Why are you reasoning in your hearts? Which is easier, to say, ‘Your sins have been forgiven you,’ or to say, ‘Get up and walk’? But, so that you may know that the Son of Man has authority on earth to forgive sins,”—He said to the paralytic—“I say to you, get up, and pick up your stretcher and go home.” (Luke 5:17-24) {emphasis mine}

In this familiar story a man who was paralyzed was brought to Jesus for healing. The paralytic’s friends worked so hard to get him physically healed that they hauled him up on the roof, dug through the roof, and lowered him down in front of Jesus. What was Jesus’s response? Jesus forgave the man’s sins. Every person there saw the man’s need to be able to walk, so he could take care of himself here on earth. Jesus saw the more important spiritual need and forgave his sins. After taking care of his eternal need, he also took care of his more earthly need and healed him physically.

Do you see people’s eternal need or do you just see their physical needs or worse, only see their earthly failings? Do you only see the hurt they are causing you or do you see the hurt they feel that comes from being separated from God?

Earthly or Heavenly Citizenship

I’ve been involved in politics for many years. I’ve been to precinct, county, state, and national conventions. I’ve written, debated, and defended political platforms and resolutions. I vote every election. All of that is good and useful, but is that where we are supposed to spend most of our time and effort? I’ve come to the conclusion that this is not what is most important.

For our citizenship is in heaven, from which also we eagerly wait for a Savior, the Lord Jesus Christ; who will transform the body of our humble state into conformity with the body of His glory, by the exertion of the power that He has even to subject all things to Himself. (Philippians 3:20-21)

We are told that our citizenship is in heaven. The majority of our effort should be put into support of our heavenly citizenship, not our earthly citizenship. That doesn’t mean that we should let our earthly kingdom fall apart and turn away from God, but it does mean we should be more focused on turning hearts and minds to Jesus than we are with setting domestic laws. We should be more focused on worshipping God than supporting politicians.

Sadly I see too many Christians who focus on pushing the “Pledge of Allegiance to the Flag” than they do pushing loyalty to Jesus. I see too many Christians who put all of their effort into electing the “right” politician instead of pointing people to the real Savior. I see too many Christians who try to pass the “right” laws instead of reading the law of God. I see too many Christians who put all of their effort into changing people’s minds to the “right” party instead of changing hearts and minds for Christ.

Do you really seek the kingdom of God or are you only focused on your earthly nation? Do you spend more time trying to win people for your political party than you do trying to win people for Christ? Our primary focus should be on the Millennial Kingdom of Christ and on eternity in heaven with Jesus, not on our earthly country.

Yes, we are to be a light in the world and we should seek the good of our earthly nations, but sharing the gospel, living a life honoring to God, and doing everything within our power to draw people to Jesus should be our focus and where we put most of our effort.

And He came and preached peace to you who were far away, and peace to those who were near; for through Him we both have our access in one Spirit to the Father. So then you are no longer strangers and aliens, but you are fellow citizens with the saints, and are of God’s household, having been built on the foundation of the apostles and prophets, Christ Jesus Himself being the corner stone, in whom the whole building, being fitted together, is growing into a holy temple in the Lord, in whom you also are being built together into a dwelling of God in the Spirit. (Ephesians 2:17-22)

The Hurt They Cause or the Hurt They Feel

People today are selfish and hurtful. Most people are trying to be the greatest victim which means they are accusing others of being abusers, tyrants, or haters. People are impolite, inconsiderate, and sometimes downright hateful. How do you respond?

Do you attack back when you are attacked? Are you rude back when you are treated rudely? Do you only see how others hurt you or can you see the hurt behind the hurtful behavior?

Most of the people who are striking out with hate and anger are truly hurting people. They have been taught that they are evolved pond scum and feel hopeless. They have been mistreated by other hurting people. They have been taught to be victims and to hate anyone who may not be a victim. Instead of feeling hate, we should feel compassion.

In Matthew 18:21-35 Jesus tells a parable of a master who forgives his slave of his debts, but then that slave does not show the same mercy to another who owes him much less. The slave is rebuked.

Then summoning him, his lord said to him, ‘You wicked slave, I forgave you all that debt because you pleaded with me. Should you not also have had mercy on your fellow slave, in the same way that I had mercy on you?’ (Matthew 18:32-33)

God loved us before we loved Him. Jesus forgave us far more than we can ever forgive others. After all Jesus did for us, we should be forgiving like He is. We should see other’s hurt and eternal destination and have compassion on them. Instead of treating them the way we were treated, we should treat them like Jesus treated us. We should seek their eternal good above our momentary comfort.

And He said to them, “Come away by yourselves to a secluded place and rest a while.” (For there were many people coming and going, and they did not even have time to eat.) They went away in the boat to a secluded place by themselves.

The people saw them going, and many recognized them and ran there together on foot from all the cities, and got there ahead of them. When Jesus went ashore, He saw a large crowd, and He felt compassion for them because they were like sheep without a shepherd; and He began to teach them many things. (Mark 6:31-34) {emphasis mine}

Just as Jesus had compassion for the crowd and their spiritual needs when He and His disciples had need of food and rest, in the same way we should sacrifice our egos to minister to the spiritual needs of those that may seem unlovable because of their eternal need.

May the Lord of Heaven help us to have an eternal perspective and to view everything and everyone with that eternal and spiritual perspective so we can faithfully serve Jesus and bring with us a plentiful harvest. May Jesus use us for His glory and for the eternal good of those around us.

@ 3c389c8f:7a2eff7f

Nostr's first algorithmic relay feed, was introduced by prolific Nostr user, builder, and supporter, utxo the webmaster and the Bitvora team. This idea takes control of your algorithms away from 3rd parties and puts it directly in the user's hands. The system was designed to give readers the ability to choose who and what they want to see in their Nostr feed, and at what frequency, while also encouraging discovery of new and interesting content. The design keeps in mind that users may not want to see posts that are inflammatory or contentious like ad-driven algorithms assume, but ones that simply generate interesting conversations. On top of that, it is also clearly designed to incentivize users to spend time offline and still keeping up with things that are important to them online.

After playing with the various settings, I have been pleasantly surprised with how well it works. To set up your individualized algo relay feed, you simply visit the landing page and sign in with your signer of choice. You will first be presented with some information about your network and the authors you interact with the most. This is a neat little bonus to me. I can clearly see the profiles that provide me with value, whether it be through learning, friendship, or professional (whatever that means). It gives me a good feeling to see who has been worthy of my attention, and I imagine if I were one to engage in defensive online discussions, the presentation of these authors might make me take a second look at my own behavior. Maybe the idea of anyone else doing that is a pipedream, but I like the thought. Just beyond the network information are some insightful statistics about the ways you engage online, like how often you post and reply.

Towards the bottom of the page are your actual settings:

As you can see, there are a variety of settings that all will impact the way that your personalized feed is built. Simply make some adjustments that feel right for you and click save. Your personalized algorithm feed will be available to you in any client that enables relay browsing, like Jumble and Coracle. It is worth trying out a couple of different formulas, as they are quite effective. Once you find a balance that feels right, you can just save the relay as a favorite for easy access, and basically forget about it. They relay will keep your settings to build your personalized Nostr feed whenever you connect. If at any time you need a change, just revisit the page and make your adjustments. The software is open source, making it possible to host your own for yourself and your friends.

I have found a lot of interesting content and people through the Nostr AlgoRelay. My first few settings adjustments didn't quite suit what I was looking for, but a few tweaks brought forth notes from some of my favorite people that I had missed but not stuff that was really outdated, a few notes from popular figureheads, and some things that my friends were engaging with that I did not know about prior. I highly recommend giving it a try, beyond a quick glance. The true value of this relay grows in time, as you go about life and come back to visit your Nostr world.

@ 502ab02a:a2860397

“นาฬิกาชีวิตระดับยีน” ที่ไม่ได้เดินตามเข็ม แต่เดินตามแสงแดด ลมหนาว กลิ่นฝน และแม้กระทั่งความเงียบในฤดูหนาว... โลกที่เรียกว่า Epigenetic Clock ซึ่งไม่ได้แค่บอกอายุ แต่ยังเปลี่ยนพฤติกรรมของเซลล์ตามฤดูกาล เหมือนกับที่ใบไม้เปลี่ยนสีโดยที่ต้นไม้ไม่ได้ตั้งใจ

แม้เราจะคิดว่าอายุถูกวัดด้วยวัน เดือน ปีที่ผ่านไป แต่ในทางชีววิทยาอายุจริง ๆ ของร่างกายเราวัดด้วยสิ่งที่เรียกว่า epigenetic clock หรือนาฬิกาชีวิตที่ฝังอยู่ในระดับยีน ซึ่งไม่ได้เปลี่ยนเพราะตัวเลขในบัตรประชาชน แต่เปลี่ยนเพราะปัจจัยรอบตัวที่มากระทบชีวิตเราในทุก ๆ วัน รวมถึงแสงแดดที่สาดลงมาบนผิวในแต่ละฤดูกาลด้วย ยีนของเรานั้นมี “สวิตช์เปิด-ปิด” ที่ควบคุมโดยกลไกที่เรียกว่า epigenetic marks หรือการเปลี่ยนโครงสร้างดีเอ็นเอเล็กน้อยโดยไม่เปลี่ยนรหัสพันธุกรรมเดิม คล้ายกับที่โน้ตเพลงยังเหมือนเดิม แต่เปลี่ยนจังหวะหรือเสียงเครื่องดนตรีที่ใช้บรรเลง

นักวิจัยพบว่าในสัตว์ที่อาศัยอยู่ในเขตอบอุ่น เช่น หนู ฮอร์โมนการสืบพันธุ์ไม่ได้หลั่งเท่ากันทั้งปี แต่หลั่งตามแสงที่สั้นหรือยาว ซึ่งเป็นตัวส่งสัญญาณให้ระบบ epigenetic ไปปรับยีนที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการผลิตฮอร์โมนเพศ และแม้แต่การสะสมไขมัน โดยยีนบางตัวจะถูก “เมทิลเลต” หรือปิดไว้ในฤดูหนาว แล้วเปิดออกใหม่เมื่อเข้าสู่ฤดูใบไม้ผลิ เพื่อให้ร่างกายกลับมาใช้งานได้อย่างเหมาะสมในฤดูที่มีอาหารมากขึ้น กระบวนการนี้ไม่ใช่เรื่องเฉพาะสัตว์ เพราะในคนก็เกิดขึ้นเหมือนกัน แค่เราไม่รู้ว่ามันกำลังทำงานอยู่ใต้ผิวหนังแบบเงียบ ๆ เท่านั้นเองครับ

ไม่ใช่แค่ฮอร์โมนเท่านั้นที่ขยับตามฤดู แต่ภูมิคุ้มกันเองก็เปลี่ยนตามจังหวะ epigenetic ด้วย นักวิจัยจากมหาวิทยาลัยเคมบริดจ์พบว่าในฤดูหนาว ยีนที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการอักเสบ (inflammatory genes) จะถูกเปิดใช้งานมากขึ้น ในขณะที่ยีนที่เกี่ยวกับการซ่อมแซมและการควบคุมภูมิคุ้มกันกลับถูกปิดบางส่วน ผลก็คือคนเรามีแนวโน้มจะเจ็บป่วยจากโรคอักเสบหรือภูมิแพ้ในฤดูหนาวมากกว่าฤดูร้อน ซึ่งเป็นฤดูที่ระบบภูมิคุ้มกันถูกเซ็ตใหม่ให้โฟกัสที่การซ่อมแซมมากกว่าโจมตี การทำงานเหล่านี้ไม่ได้เกิดแบบสุ่ม แต่สอดคล้องกับแสงแดดที่เปลี่ยนแปลงไปในแต่ละเดือน ราวกับว่าร่างกายเรามี ปฏิทินลับ ที่คอยกางออกให้ยีนอ่านอยู่เสมอ

สิ่งที่น่าสนใจมากกว่านั้นคือ แสงแดดสามารถย้อนวัย epigenetic ได้จริง โดยเฉพาะในรูปของ “early morning sunlight” ซึ่งมีแสงอินฟราเรดยาว ๆ (near-infrared light) ที่ช่วยกระตุ้นการทำงานของ cytochrome c oxidase ในไมโตคอนเดรีย ทำให้ผลิตพลังงานได้ดีขึ้น ลด oxidative stress และกระตุ้นยีนที่เกี่ยวข้องกับการซ่อมดีเอ็นเอ มีงานวิจัยที่แสดงให้เห็นว่าแสงตอนเช้าอาจช่วยลดความเร็วของ epigenetic aging ได้ดีกว่าการออกกำลังกายเสียอีก หากทำอย่างสม่ำเสมอและถูกจังหวะในแต่ละฤดู

ในมุมของการรักษาโรค NCD หรือโรคที่เกิดจากวิถีชีวิตแบบพัง ๆ โอเคเราอาจเคยได้ยินเรื่องอาหาร การออกกำลังกาย หรือการนอน แต่มีน้อยคนที่จะพูดถึงการ “ตั้งนาฬิกาชีวิตให้ตรงกับฤดู” เพราะวงจร epigenetic ไม่ได้ถูกปรับด้วยกิจกรรมแค่วันต่อวัน แต่มันตอบสนองกับช่วงเวลาที่ลึกกว่านั้น คือ “ฤดูชีวิต” แบบ circannual ซึ่งเป็นเหมือนเมตาบอสเต็มรูปแบบของ biological season ที่ธรรมชาติเขียนสคริปต์ไว้แล้ว เราแค่ต้องฟัง

สิ่งที่เราจะทำได้จริงแบบง่าย ๆ คือ การอยู่กลางแดดในฤดูที่ควรอยู่กลางแดด ไม่ใช่ปิดผ้าม่านแล้วเปิด Netflix ทั้งวัน ปล่อยให้แสงจริงกระทบตาและผิวเป็นประจำโดยเฉพาะในช่วงเวลา 7:00 – 9:00 น. และอย่าลืมว่าฤดูไม่ใช่มีไว้แค่เปลี่ยนเสื้อผ้า แต่เปลี่ยนวิธีที่ร่างกายผลิตฮอร์โมน ซ่อมแซมตัวเอง และแม้แต่สร้างเซลล์สมองใหม่ ๆ ซึ่งกระบวนการทั้งหมดนี้ต้องการจังหวะที่ตรงกับปฏิทินของธรรมชาติ

ถ้าความแก่คือผลรวมของความผิดจังหวะเล็ก ๆ ทุกวัน การกลับไปอยู่กับฤดูกาลอีกครั้ง อาจเป็นเหมือนการตั้งวงดนตรีให้เข้าคีย์ใหม่ ฟังได้ไพเราะยิ่งกว่าเสียงใดในโลก และทำให้ “ยีนของเรา” เล่นบทเพลงแห่งชีวิตได้ยาวนานขึ้นอย่างสง่างาม แบบที่ไม่ต้องพึ่งอะไรเลยนอกจากแสงจากฟ้าและความเข้าใจลึก ๆ ที่ธรรมชาติมีให้เราตั้งแต่เกิด

#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr #SundaySpecialเราจะไปเป็นหมูแดดเดียว

@ c1e9ab3a:9cb56b43

1. Introduction

The 21st century is marked by a rare confluence of demographic, technological, and monetary regime shifts. As birth rates fall below replacement levels across advanced and many emerging economies, global population growth slows and begins to reverse. At the same time, automation, AI, and robotics are increasing productivity at an accelerating pace. Simultaneously, trust in central banks and fiat currencies is waning, giving rise to calls for a return to hard currencies (e.g., gold, Bitcoin) and decentralized monetary systems.

These trends pose stark challenges to existing economic theories and institutions. This paper explores their implications through two opposing lenses: Keynesian economics and Austrian (Misesian) economics.

---

2. The Keynesian Reaction: Deflation, Demand Collapse, and the Paradox of Thrift

2.1. Demand-Side Fragility in a Shrinking Population

Keynesian theory is rooted in the principle that aggregate demand drives output and employment. A declining population implies a falling consumption base, which directly reduces aggregate demand. Combined with increased longevity, this trend leads to a larger retired population disinclined to spend, creating persistent demand shortfalls.

2.2. Technological Unemployment and Reduced Income Velocity

Rapid productivity gains from AI and robotics may displace large segments of labor, leading to unemployment or underemployment. With fewer wage earners and heightened uncertainty, consumption slows further. Even if goods become cheaper, widespread income insecurity constrains the ability to buy them.

2.3. The Paradox of Thrift

In times of uncertainty, both individuals and businesses tend to save more. Keynes argued that if everyone saves, aggregate demand collapses because one person’s spending is another’s income. Thus, increased saving leads to lower incomes, which reduces saving in aggregate—a self-reinforcing contraction.

2.4. Retreat from Fiat and Central Banking: A Catastrophic Constraint

Abandoning fiat currency and central banking removes the government’s ability to perform countercyclical policy. Interest rates cannot be lowered below zero; money supply cannot be expanded to fill demand gaps. In such a regime, deflation becomes chronic, debt burdens rise in real terms, and recovery mechanisms are neutered.

Conclusion (Keynesian):
The combined effect of declining population, rising productivity, and a hard money transition is catastrophic. It leads to a deflationary spiral, mass unemployment, debt crises, and secular stagnation unless aggressively offset by expansive fiscal and monetary policy—tools unavailable in a hard currency system.

---

3. The Misesian Rebuttal: Market Coordination and the Natural Order of Decline

3.1. Savings as Capital Formation

Mises and the Austrian School reject the paradox of thrift. Savings are not lost demand; they are deferred consumption that funds capital investment. Increased saving, in a free market, lowers interest rates and reallocates resources toward longer-term, higher-order production.

3.2. Deflation as a Signal of Progress

Falling prices due to productivity gains are not a crisis but a benefit. Consumers gain real wealth. Entrepreneurs adjust cost structures. As long as wages and prices are flexible, deflation reflects abundance, not failure.

3.3. Population Decline as Economic Recalibration

A shrinking population reduces demand, yes—but it also reduces the labor supply. Wages rise in real terms. Capital intensity per worker increases. There is no systemic unemployment if labor markets are free and responsive.

3.4. Hard Currency as Restoration of Market Coordination

Transitioning to a hard currency purges fiat-induced malinvestment and restores the price mechanism. With no artificial credit expansion, capital is allocated based on real savings. Booms and busts are mitigated, and long-term planning becomes reliable.

Conclusion (Misesian):
There is no crisis. A hard currency, high-productivity, low-population economy stabilizes at a new equilibrium of lower consumption, higher capital intensity, and rising real wealth. Deflation is natural. Savings are the seed of future prosperity. Government interference, not market adaptation, is the threat.

---

4. Final Synthesis

The Keynesian and Misesian views diverge on first principles: Keynes sees demand shortfalls and rigidities requiring top-down correction, while Mises sees market-coordinated adaptation as sufficient and self-correcting. As the 21st century evolves, this ideological conflict will shape whether the transition leads to depression or renewal.

---

References

• Keynes, J.M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money
• Mises, L. Human Action
• Hayek, F.A. Prices and Production
• Böhm-Bawerk, E. Capital and Interest
• Friedman, M. A Program for Monetary Stability

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Оригинални научни рад

Аутор: Срђан М. РАДУЛОВИЋ - Универзитет у Приштини са привременим седиштем у Косовској Митровици (Србија), Правни факултет

---

Сажетак

Тенденција трансформације појединачних друштвених заједница у јединствено, унификовано друштво, које унутар себе не познаје никакве границе (или барем не инсистира на њима), можемо, уз неопходну дозу симплификације, сматрати појмовним одређењем глобализације, која, будући да је доживљавамо као тенденцију, по природи ствари има и своје темпорално одређење. Мада одређење временских координата ове појаве умногоме зависи од угла из којег је посматрамо, начелно је могуће постићи консензус око тога да овај процес није континуиран, већ да се одвијао у неколико засебних фаза.

Нама је блиско становиште да је ова тенденција имала три фазе. Но, верујемо да ће се и присталице нешто другачије периодизације усагласити са тим да је у периоду од 31. октобра 2008. године, када је објављен тзв. бели папир (white paper) под називом Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, до момента проглашења пандемије SARSCoV-2 вируса од стране Светске здравствене организације започела сасвим нова, по потенцијалним дометима најефикаснија и најсвеобухватнија фаза глобализације.

У овом раду, због усмерености и обима рада, представљамо део резултата раније спроведеног теоријско-емпиријског истраживања о социолошко-правним моментима који су погодовали почетку нове фазе глобализације. Други део прикупљених резултата, усмерен на потенцијални обим и ефекте промене коју доноси нова фаза, биће представљен у неком од наредних радова. Сазнања су у оба дела истраживања прикупљена употребом аналитичко-синтетичких метода, уз нарочит ослонац на предности апстракције. У раду су, такође, коришћене и различите технике нормативног метода, као и специфичне технике интерпретације правних норми.

Кључне речи: глобализација; биткоин; криптовалуте; криптоимовина; новчане облигације; SARS-CoV-2 пандемија.

Уместо увода

Уколико идеју о глобализацији генерализујемо и интерпретирамо је као трансформацију самосталних друштвених заједница са релативно јасно одређеним државним, културним, економским и/или другим границама, у унификовано друштво које не познаје ниједну од поменутих граница, или барем није њима спутано (Радуловић, 2017), можемо доћи до неколико закључака.

Први у низу закључака био би да је овај процес иманентан људском друштву. Иако се израз не појављује у научној литератури до средине XX века (Попић, 2018; Џамић, 2014; Chumakov, 2010), мишљења смо да тенденција интензивирања људских односа кроз смањење просторних, временских, културних, а нарочито економских баријера одувек постоји. Доиста делује као да друштво тежи свеобухватности и да је глобализацију немогуће избећи (2) (Domišljanović, 2000), а да је несклад између научног конституисања појма и тренутка када се глобализација појавила чак и природан. (3) (Џамић, 2014)

Облик и, нарочито, интензитет глобализације разликују се кроз епохе. Начини постизања ефеката глобализације, такође, сукцесивно су се смењивали (Антић, 2013). Можемо уочити и периоде стагнације, чак и радикалних, темпорално или географски одређених фаза у којима се промовише изолација у односу на „нетрадиционалне” вредности. То, међутим, не значи да тенденција пораста степена међузависности процеса, појава и односа не постоји (Џамић, 2014). Напротив. Управо виши степен радикализма у „традиционалистичким” (4) одговорима подстиче активности усмерене ка стварању више форме друштвене заједнице (Марковић и Булатовић, 2014). Уосталом, push and pull ефекти (Giddens, 1990) глобализације нису нимало необични. Они природно произлазе из осећаја апатије, изгубљености, угрожености коју кроскултурни начин организовања доноси (5) (Chumakov, 2010).

Даље, глобализација спаја прошлост и садашњост, представља будућност, мада сама не подлеже никаквим временским ограничењима (Попић, 2018; Chumakov, 2010). Но, глобализација није униформна појава (Радуловић, 2017). Она, уколико је доживљавамо као процес, има своје фазе. Њих је могуће разликовати и определити периодизацију.

Критеријуми периодизације врло су хетерогени и није једноставно определити се за један, тим пре јер историјска димензија глобализације није сасвим јасна (Антић, 2003). Уз напомену да би закључци принципијелно били исти и да смо одабрали другачију хронологију, бирамо модификовану трофазну периодизацију глобализације (Печујлић, 2002; Радуловић, 2017). Прва фаза започиње успоном најстаријих цивилизација и траје до XVI века. Други талас глобализације траје до пада Берлинског зида (6). Најзад, трећи талас турбоглобализације започиње падом Берлинског зида и траје до данас без прекида [sic!].

---

1. Штавише, степен достигнуте повезаности и свеобухватности могуће је и изразити релативно прецизно кроз глобалност као меру дешавања на глобалу (Cifrić, 2009).
2. Природно је да свест о одвијању процеса, следствено и научно интересовање, у делу људске историје нису постојали, то јест да су се јавили у некој од фаза већ започетог процеса. Овакав закључак произлази из петофазне периодизације промишљања о проблемима и трендовима на нивоу човечанства као органске целине, а која почиње тек од средине XVIII века (Chumakov, 2010).
3. Ваља бити нарочито обазрив уколико између појмова глобализације и модернизације, односно традиционализма и конзервативизма, постављамо знак једнакости. Социолошка теорија нуди врло деликатно упутство за употребу ових термина, нарочито онда када их употребљавамо као вредносне судове (Giddens, 1990; Шуваковић, 2013).
4. Глобалистичке пројекције своје постојање, па и смисао уопште, потврђују тек кроз однос са изолационистичким тенденцијама. Однос глобалистичких тежњи друштва и регресивни одговори на те тежње само истичу контроверзну дуалну природу глобализације као процеса (Џамић, 2014). Утолико и синтагма „уједињено-разједињени свет” под којом је, како се сматра, Радомир Лукић проучавао глобализацију (Печујлић, 2002; Попић и Шуваковић, 2014; Џамић, 2014) има више смисла.
5. Творац трофазне периодизације од које полазимо, период од XVI века до пада Берлинског зида не види као континуиран сегмент, већ унутар њега разликује две засебне фазе (Печујлић, 2002). Ми на њима нећемо инсистирати, будући да (не)прихватање ове поделе није релевантно за касније извођење закључака.

---

Корени четвртог таласа глобализације

Настанак и развој протоглобалних цивилизација, њихово ширење, те јављање тежње за унификацијом друштва нераскидиво су повезани са техничким открићима (Антић, 2003). Не само први већ сви таласи глобализације (а сваки наредни интензивнији је од претходног) узроковани су примарно модернизацијом у технолошком смислу. Увек када се појави технологија која има капацитет да обезбеди ефикасније умањење просторне и/или временске дистанце, за последицу имамо комплексне промене у друштву које, уз дозу генерализације, проучавамо као (нове) таласе глобализације. Изузетак није ни четврти талас на чије постојање желимо да укажемо.

Концепт новца и његова еволуција, такође, нераскидиво су везани за технолошки напредак, иако је он, будући да није спутан правним нити културним ограничењима, неупоредиво бржи (Calcaterra et al., 2020). Природно, кроз разраду идеја о дигитализацији традиционалних форми новца које су се појавиле већ у раним осамдесетим (Cavalhiero & Cavalhiero, 2022), у монетарним порецима започет је постепени прелазак са банкнотног на систем електронског плаћања (Димитријевић, 2018). Прелазак је био потпуно логична, чак и очекивана фаза у процесу еволуције новца усмерене ка његовој апстракцији. Безбројне предности апстрахованог инструмента – ефикасност, ефективност и погодност коришћења само су неке од њих (Ruslina, 2019) – учиниле су да се за мање од три деценије од појаве електронског (7), затим и виртуелног новца на глобално интегрисаном финансијском тржишту (Димитријевић, 2018), економски токови глобализују најпре у смислу да промет велике количине новца не трпи значајнија ограничења и да се одвија за релативно кратко време.

У таквом окружењу отвара се широк простор на међународном нивоу који теоретски може да попуни само наднационални, потенцијално недржавни новчани систем (Nahorniak et al., 2016). У том смислу, криптовалуте, базиране на блокчејн технологији, представљају занимљив новитет. Оне су створиле суштинске изазове за правне поретке и довеле у питање генералну улогу новца и различитих валута (Ronaghi, 2023). Такође, подстичу иновације и стварају нове прилике у свету који је створен у првим годинама интернета (Calcaterra et al., 2020; Cavalheiro & Cavalheiro, 2022).

Уз то, оне представљају облик дигиталног новца, но, нису исто што и електронски новац (Nahorniak et al., 2016). Оне су, заправо, нови правац у развоју дигиталног новца због тога што постојећу новчану масу комплементарно и квалитативно уздижу. Стога, криптовалуте нам се чине као најозбиљнији кандидат за задовољење потреба које на међународном тржишту новца постоје, а у мору пројеката издваја се феномен Биткоина (8).

Биткоин примарно не представља валуту, мада може преузети облик и функције новца (9), већ систем плаћања. Суштински, платформа поставља и спроводи правила усмерена на заштиту права својине (Abramowitz, 2016), која се, помало поједностављено, своди на својину на приватним кључевима (Raskin, 2015). Од момента када је постао оперативан, функционише као аутономан систем у потпуности заснован на транспарентним математичким и информатичким принципима. Прецизније, софтвер функционише искључиво према упутствима садржаним у самом коду, али она не долазе од централног ауторитета, сем иницијално, чак не ни од самог творца, већ од демократски организоване заједнице равноправних учесника у мрежи потпуно отвореног типа [нагласио аутор] (10). Као такав, практично посматрано, у потпуности је имун на постојећу међународну, а нарочито домаћу правну регулативу (која ће управо из тог разлога остати ван фокуса овог рада), јер његова поставка и није нормативна већ консенсуална.

Иако се данас стабилни коини погрешно или барем преурањено означавају као „Хајеков новац” (Syropyatov, 2021), биткоин, што се јасно види из његовог концепцијског манифеста, представља први успешан покушај оживотворења деценијама присутне идеје Ф. А. Хајека (1976) о демонополизацији државног утицаја на креирање монетарне политике кроз постепено увођење конкуренције „државном” новцу у виду новца креираног од стране приватних ентитета (Ruslina, 2019; Syropyatov, 2021), и то у форми „спољашњег новца” према прихваћеној дихотомији (Garrat & Wallace, 2018).

Биткоин мрежа је у потпуности транспарентна. Сет криптографских кључева, односно комбинација јавне адресе и приватног кључа (Raskin, 2015), омогућава да систем буде потпуно транспарентан, пре свега, у погледу начина рада, затим расподеле средстава и њиховог кретања (11), али истовремено и да буде имун на интервенције споља због апсолутне, криптографски гарантоване, анонимности учесника у мрежи. То, свакако, компромитује економски суверенитет државе, који је додатно компромитован и њеном немогућношћу да утиче на пуштање у оптицај и масе криптовалутних јединица (Raskin, 2015), затим њеном фактичком немогућношћу да их забрани или опорезује, као и немогућношћу да директно утиче на њихову курсну вредност или куповну моћ. Но, чињеница да овај систем не зависи од компарације и размене националних финансијских инструмената на интернационалном тржишту чини га суштински децентрализованим, а потпуна отвореност мреже интернационализованим, затим и глобализованим (Blaazer, 2020).

Дакле, када смо говорили о вези узрочно-последичног карактера између технолошких иновација и новог таласа глобализације, имали смо у виду примарно Биткоин. Суштински смо, заправо, имали у виду синтезу технолошких иновација први пут обједињених у оквиру функционалне целине од стране недржавног ауторитета која нема само локални већ која има и међународни домашај, а која је у време настанка идеје о новцу издатом од стране приватних ентитета била недоступна, што је саму идеју, по признању творца идеје, чинило утопистичком (Syropyatov, 2021).

---

1. Електронски новац је облик дигиталног новца који, по правилу, представља електронску манифестацију већ постојећег новца у оптицају (Nahorniak et al., 2016; Ström, 2020). Појавио се најпре у Јапану средином осамдесетих година као припејд картица за плаћање неких врста „масовних услуга”, а замах је добио на западу где је коришћен као замена за кеш трансакције мале вредности (Димитријевић, 2018).
2. Будући да је њихова правилна дистинкција од кључне важности, за потребе овог рада систем плаћања означаваћемо као Биткоин, дакле великим почетним словом „Б”, а виртуелне јединице унутар система малим почетним словом „б” (биткоин).
3. Биткоин је најпре препознат као новац од стране специјализованих органа САД који се баве финансијским криминалитетом (Mirjanich, 2014), а тај став потврђен је у чувеном случају Silk Road (Raskin, 2015; Zebec, 2018) и широј јавности мање познатом, али правнополитички врло значајном случају SEC vs Shavers (Raskin, 2015).
4. Кроз овакву поставку, творац и иницијални издавач решио је два кључна проблема – нежељене додатне продукције новца и његово кривотворења (Garrat & Wallace, 2018).
5. Биткоин користи блокчејн технологију и hash функцију како би створио трајни запис свих трансакција које су се у оквиру мреже реализовале (Cavalheiro & Cavalheiro, 2022; Ruslina, 2019). У том контексту интересантан је податак да се чак и биткоини који су заплењени у случају Silk Road, то јест њихово кретање кроз заплену и каснију аукцију, могу пратити у потпуности кроз записе у блокчејну (адреса новчаника који припада FBI: lFfmbHfnpaZjKFvyilokTjJJusN455paPH), те да су оба поступка морала да буду потврђена кроз процес верификације специфичан за биткоинов блокчејн протокол (Raskin, 2015).

---

Проблем одређења временских координата четвртог таласа

Уколико уопште прихватимо идеју о новом таласу, чврсто стојећи на том становишту, можемо рећи да је блокчејн технологија темељ модерних глобалистичких активности, тим пре ако имамо у виду ситуационо и територијално неограничене могућности њене примене. Штавише, иако има оних који су у том смислу резервисани (Horvatić i Tafra, 2022), сматрамо да је овај вид технологије, по потенцијалним дометима и брзини усвајања, импресивнији од интернета. Компарације криптовалутног тржишта и интернета с почетка деведесетих година то потврђују (Syropyatov, 2021).

Почетак овог таласа глобализације, међутим, не можемо стриктно везати за моменат настанка блокчејн технологије а да тиме успешно разрешимо све недоумице које евентуално могу настати. Разлога је неколико, а два су, сматрамо, нарочито битна.

Најпре, блокчејн технологија није нова технологија per se. Блокчејн је први успешан спој технолошких идеја које су постојале и биле коришћене значајно пре формирања првих „низова података груписаних у блокове” (12).

Друго, први случајеви имплементације блокчејн технологије, иако успешни, прошли су незапажено ван информатичке заједнице. Блокчејн остаје потпуно непознат вид технологије широј јавности све до њене уградње у основе система плаћања (13) познатог под називом Биткоин (Horvatić i Tarfa, 2022). Тек од тренутка када је Биткоин мрежа постала оперативна, иако њена дистрибутивност симболизује универзалност (Ronaghi, 2023), блокчејн технологија суштински постаје глобални, доцније и мејнстрим феномен. Следи моменат настанка блокчејн технологије, иако кључне у техничком и суштинском смислу, због иницијално скромних домета, дакле, пре првих примера функционалне имплементације, не би га исправно било узети за почетак четвртог таласа глобализације.

Иако је творац система пажљиво одабрао тренутак како би истакао поенту у свом манифесту револуционарне реформе монетарног система (Sławiński, 2019), више је разлога због којих не можемо везати почетак четвртог таласа глобализације стриктно ни за крај 2008. године, када је објављен тзв. бели папир (14) (Raskin, 2015) нити за почетак 2009. године, када је мрежа постала оперативна.

Први разлог је тај што је кибернетизација и глобализација новца, следствено капиталистичког облика привређивања, суштински започела још 1971. године (Ström, 2020). Даље, Биткоин, ма колико импресивна идеја била, посматрано из перспективе нашег рада, суштински није ништа друго до тек први успешан пројекат имплементације блокчејн технологије на начин који промовише децентрализовану глобализацију. Биткоин је први приказ потенцијала технологије која у монетарној сфери омогућава поуздано креирање и трансфер дигиталних добара (Ronaghi, 2023), мада и то на начин који због читавог низа објективних околности компромитује његово усвајање као мејнстрим економског феномена (Syropyatov, 2021). Дакле, стварни домети блокчејн технологије биће спознати тек кроз пројекте који су се појавили значајно касније или који ће се тек појавити (15).

Штавише, потпуно смо сагласни са тим да биткоин не само да није једини, већ да није ни најнапреднији пројекат те врсте (Teomete Yalabik & Yalabik, 2019). Примера ради, из перспективе финансијског тржишта, stable coin пројекти, којима се покушава решити проблем волатилности, тренутно су иновација која највише обећава (Syropyatov, 2021). Трећи разлог је тај што је крај 2008. године, због економске кризе која је тај период обележила, исправније интерпретирати као посртање антидржавне, laissez faire глобалистичке методологије и јачање државног интервенционизма, него као нови талас глобализације (Mellor, 2020). Коначно, исправно интерпретирање Биткоина као феномена могуће је једино у контексту врло хетерогене групе догађаја међу којима нарочито место заузима проглашење пандемије изазване SARS-CoV-2 вирусом.

Наиме, 11. марта 2020. године Светска здравствена организација прогласила је пандемију SARS-CoV-2 вируса. Вирус који је узрок обољења познатог под називом ковид 19, постао је катализатор читавог низа процеса. Због природе пандемије, пре свега чињенице да је током трајања пандемије било неопходно свести физичке контакте на минимум, природно је да је потрага за алтернативним моделима функционисања свакодневних активности убрзала процес дигитализације (Mijatović, 2022).

У ред појава и процеса код којих је промена карактера и интензитета најизраженија на првом месту налази се процес трансформације новца, генерално и финансијског тржишта, што је уосталом и научно доказано (Vareško i Deković, 2022). Наиме, систем размене добара какав је карактеристичан за монетарне економије данашњице није одувек постојао, нити је кроз различите епохе функционисао на исти начин. Од скромних почетака неформалног робноновчаног промета, базираног на локализованом личном контакту (Ström, 2020), евентуално на једноставним бартер аранжманима (Calcaterra et al., 2020; Mellor, 2020; Ström, 2020), преко увођења ретких метала као опште мере вредности робе, до појаве првог кованог новца, затим банкнота, коначно и електронског новца као репрезентације новца који се већ налази у оптицају, новац је кроз сопствену апстракцију (Ström, 2020) пратио интензивирање друштвених односа. Његова социјална и материјална апстракција погодовала је интензивном и екстензивном ширењу капиталистичког начина привређивања (Ström, 2020). Последица је континуирано смањење просторне, временске, а затим и културне дистанце. Смањење различитих видова дистанце иницирало је ново апстраховање новца, што је, у складу с потребама све интензивнијег привредног живота, резултирало његовом метаморфозом у врло софистициран финансијски инструмент.

Биткоин осећа и прати тенденције у развоју новца, а у контексту савремених друштвених релација има савршен смисао. Најпре, очигледно је постојање тенденције изградње електронских облика чувања новца и система плаћања. Њихове предности су неспорне и сматра се да такви системи повећавају ефикасност и у виртуелном и у реалном свету (Vareško i Deković, 2022). Оно што је у почетку деловало као крајње несигурна концепција, прихваћено је и раширено у тој мери да монетарни системи најразвијенијих земаља, по правилу, функционишу без било какве физичке репрезентације новца, то јест као cashless заједница (Calcaterra et al., 2020). Како Биткоин промовише употребу најновијих информационих технологија за чување и трансфер новца, јасно је да је претходна тенденција уважена у потпуности. Штавише, Биткоин не само да уважава тенденцију дематеријализације новца већ је и наставља и уздиже на квалитативно виши ниво.

Кроз peer-to-peer систем на којем почива промовише се digital trust, што омогућава директне трансакције међу корисницима (Ruslina, 2019). Иако се то може тумачити као разлог несигурности система (Ruslina, 2019), на овај начин елиминише се потреба за акредитованим посредницима који су есенцијални у традиционалним системима плаћања (Živanović i Vitomir, 2022; Raskin, 2015; Ronaghi, 2023; Horvatić i Tafra, 2022; Cavalheiro & Cavalheiro, 2022). Такође, елиминише се и могућност да се деси „двострука потрошња” (Ruslina, 2019), све то уз истовремено унапређење брзине обављања трансакција и смањење провизија (Teomete Yalabik & Yalabik, 2019). Трошкови чувања средстава, осим уколико се корисник не одлучи да криптографске кључеве похрани на напреднији cold wallet, практично не постоје. Иако би интуитивнији кориснички интерфејс олакшао употребу, Биткоин мрежа промовише апсолутну монетарну инклузију свих заинтересованих лица, омогућава лак приступ средствима и њиховом управљању. Најзад, овај систем плаћања имун је на државну и међународну регулативу (16), а самим тим и на границе држава – практично их не познаје, што иде у прилог тенденцији апстракције, универзализације и денационализације средстава плаћања.

Иако је начин његове примене константно еволуирао (17) (Vareško i Deković, 2022), инсистирамо на томе да Биткоин није валута, већ да је у питању систем плаћања. Уосталом, у том капацитету је и коришћен примарно, конкретно ради куповине и продаје робе и услуга путем интернета (Vareško i Deković, 2022). Ипак, будући да је временом постајао све глобалнији и разноврснији као инструмент (Karabulut & Sari, 2022), Биткоин је најавио крупне промене на међународном, глобализованом тржишту роба и капитала (Živanović i Vitomir, 2022). Неке од њих су се и десиле у претходном периоду. Но, како објашњавамо везу између пандемије SARS-CoV-2 вируса, Биткоина и четвртог таласа глобализације (18)?

Биткоин је привукао масовно интересовање 2017. годинe када су „Биткоин” и „како купити биткоин” били најчешће коришћени појмови у популарним претраживачима попут Гугла (Cavalheiro & Cavalheiro, 2022). Разлог је једноставан. Уз уважавање осталих квалитета, основна снага Биткоина лежи у одсуству могућности повећања количине јединица у оптицају (19), затим одсуству могућности копирања појединачних јединица које „циркулишу” унутар система, најзад и математички пројектованој динамици „пуштања у оптицај” предвиђене количине јединица (20) (Raskin, 2015). На основу тога, можемо рећи да се биткоин понаша као изразито дефлаторна валута, свакако под условом да га уопште посматрамо као валуту.

С друге стране, модерне државе имају суверенитет у погледу одређења средства плаћања, а ексклузивитет одређивања куповне моћи тог средства, након аброгације „златног стандарда”, делегирале су својим централним монетарним установама. Традиционални новац у потпуности је завистан од одлука и регулативе централних банака (Ronaghi, 2023). Поверење у централне банке и њихову пројекцију суштински je једини принцип за одређење вредности новца. Принцип тржишне привреде, златни стандард, лимитирани златни стандард, величина привредног раста и други механизми за одређење вредности новца замењени су „принудним курсом”. Није, дакле, претеривање рећи да не постоје „природне” или барем концептуалне границе продукције новца (Mellor, 2020).

Модел може ефикасно функционисати у време када нема потреса, но све несавршености поставке до изражаја долазе управо у време криза, нарочито оним глобалних размера као што је пандемија вируса SARS-CoV-2, и то из разлога што на овакве кризе, када је привредни живот успорен или чак стопиран, а буџетска потрошња повећана, неоптерећене обавезом да за то обезбеде покриће, државе посежу за непопуларним мерама које подразумевају повећање количине новца у оптицају. (21) У таквом амбијенту, природно, систем који се базира једино на поверењу у централну монетарну институцију показује инфериорност у односу на систем који се базира на поверењу у математичке гаранције лимитиране понуде и сигурности плаћања. Следствено, тврдња о томе да се поверење у јавне (државне) институције не може поверити технологији (Sławiński, 2019) показује се као, благо речено, застарела. Ово је нарочито тачно након аброгације Bretton Woods споразума и „златног” стандарда када је окончана дефлаторна и започела инфлаторна ера у економској историји (Syropyatov, 2021). Дакле, иако је читав систем, након ере „слободног банкарства”, организован са циљем да обезбеди стабилност у временима кризе (Sławiński, 2019), парадоксално, управо у временима кризе показује се да је прерогатив државе у продукцији новца пре случајан него што је заиста потребан (Blaazer, 2020). Уосталом, случајеви Ел Салвадора (22) и Централноафричке Републике (23), у којима је усвојен низ прописа којима је Биткоин признат као средство плаћања у готово неограниченом капацитету, иако ове потезе треба тумачити као отворени економски експеримент, принципијелно потврђују капацитет ове иновације (24) (Cavalheiro & Cavalheiro, 2022) и стање у монетарним порецима.

У доба здравствене и економске кризе изазване пандемијом, повећана је потреба за укључењем реалне финансијске активе у портфолио (Živanović i Vitomir, 2022). Мисли се на тзв. safe haven имовину попут злата, затим и сребра (Živanović i Vitomir, 2022; Wen et al., 2022). Но, поред традиционалних облика заштитне финансијске активе, интересовање инвеститора усмерено је све више ка модерним облицима активе – примарно оне базиране на блокчејн технологији (Živanović i Vitomir, 2022). У њима, пре свега биткоину, могуће је наћи сличне, потенцијално чак и боље safe heaven особине него код злата (Ronaghi, 2023; Wen et al., 2022) или деоница (Vareško i Deković, 2022). Штавише, иако је истина да се биткоин суштински налази негде између злата и америчког долара (Syropyatov, 2021), истраживања недвосмислено потврђују како је диверсификација кроз биткоин, под условом да је у портфолио укључен и неки од традиционалних облика активе, добар потез чак и код оних инвеститора који нису склони ризику (Šoja i Senarthne, 2019).

Релативно ниска базна вредност биткоина у првим годинама трговања, услед огромног интересовања инвеститора за ову до тада непознату финансијску активу, у 2019. години мења се и постаје изузетно висока, а наставља да расте напоредно са негативним утицајем пандемије у наредном периоду (Živanović i Vitomir, 2022). У условима кризе изазване пандемијом, због изразитог државног интервенционизма и централизације у свим областима, биткоин као инструмент имун на државну регулативу и аполитичан, па и у односу на злато, испољава и неке додатне предности (Wen et al., 2022).

Истовремено са испољавањем првих слабости традиционалних централизованих монетарних система под притиском пандемије, изразито дефлаторна природа биткоина бива додатно истакнута кроз тзв. трећи halving event који се догодио 11. маја 2020. године. У таквим условима вредност биткоина иницијално расте безмало 10 пута и у наредном периоду достиже вредност од готово 65.000 америчких долара за један биткоин.

Цена биткоина изузетно је интересантан показатељ. Познато је, наиме, да цена биткоина зависи једино од односа понуде и тражње, односно потражње, будући да је понуда програмски ограничена и укупно и периодично. Прецизније, укупна количина биткоина који се могу наћи у оптицају је ограничена кодом на 21.000.000, али је, због програмиране динамике пуштања у оптицај, тренутно у промету тек нешто више од 90% укупне количине. Дакле, према ценама формираним на специјализованим платформама, у условима двоструко ограничене понуде, произлази да је тражња за биткоином у једном тренутку била многоструко већа од тражње за најјачом класичном валутом.

Тачно је да таква цена није била одржива, па је јењавањем пандемије и консолидацијом финансијских токова тражња за биткоином опадала. У тренутку израде рада креће се око 20.000 америчких долара. У том смислу, сасвим се чини рационалном критика волатилности цене биткоина, али и шпекулативног карактера овог облика имовине (Šoja i Senarathne, 2019). Критика нестабилности, иако постоји сасвим рационална и до детаља описана аргументација зашто се суштински дешава (Syropyatov, 2021), апсолутно је на месту. Нагли пораст и пад цене није нешто што је неуобичајено када је у питању криптоимовина, а оваква тенденција ће се засигурно наставити барем до момента када тржиште достигне критични волумен. То природно подгрева неповерење. Међутим, само на први поглед.

Наиме, када би подухват који је апсолутна новина, на иначе врло ригидном финансијском тржишту, била номинално барем једнака најјачој валути, то би био изузетан резултат по себи. Но, без обзира на значајан пад цене у односу на 2021. годину, садашња цена показује да су субјекти на финансијском тржишту, грубо речено, у 19.999 трансакција пре вољни да прихвате биткоин него амерички долар. Из реторичког питања „какво је онда стање са поверењем у остале, релативно слабије валуте?” произлази као сасвим логичан закључак да биткоин и други слични пројекти неспорно преузимају примат и савремено финансијско тржиште постепено обликују у децентрализовано окружење имуно на државну регулативу, следствено државне и све друге врсте граница.

---

1. Технолошке иновације о којима говоримо подразумевају, без претензија да их све обухватимо, имплементацију TCP/IP технологије, изградњу напреднијих програмских језика, напредак криптографије, нарочито hash функција, конструисање тзв. Меркеловог дрвета. Творац Биткоина, такође, успешно је комбиновао искуства неких ранијих покушаја изградње дигиталних валута, примера ради B-money и HashCash (Antonopoulos, 2010).
2. Иако има елемената на основу којих је Биткоин могуће исправно интерпретирати као валуту, идеја творца била је заправо најпре да створи економичнији и ефикаснији систем плаћања, пре свега код трансфера мале вредности (Živanović i Vitomir, 2022). Зато смо склонији ка томе да овај софтвер означимо као систем плаћања.
3. Исто важи и за моменат регистрације интернет домена www.bitcoin.org, за који неки аутори (Živanović i Vitomir, 2022) везују укључивање Биткона на међународно финансијско тржиште.
4. Могућност употребе блокчејн технологије није ограничена на изградњу система плаћања. У (децентрализованом) финансијском систему она се већ сада користи за формирање штедних улога, издавање полиса осигурања, пласирање кредита, трговање и управљање акцијама и обвезницама, прикупљање оснивачког капитала. Ван финансијског система она има потенцијал да се искористи за формирање катастара, вођење и чување медицинских картона или праћење пређене километраже коришћених аутомобила. Штавише, почетком јула 2020. године на референдуму је, поводом предложених уставних промена у Русији, део становништва са правом гласа своје активно бирачко право реализовао кроз софтвер базиран на блокчејн технологији. Детаљније о другим облицима коришћења блокчејн технологије видети у Ronaghi, 2023.
5. У том контексту, Ронаги (2023) нуди опсежну студију о томе како је увођење санкција Ирану од стране САД и ЕУ погодовало промоцији криптовалута, пре свега Биткоина, са циљем превазилажења негативних ефеката забрана које су у вези са интернационалним пословањем привредних субјеката, али и са свакодневним активностима појединаца на територији ове земље.
6. Ово потврђује и свеобухватна студија о броју, врстама и дистрибуцији патената који се односе директно на Биткоин, а који унапређују софтверску поставку на којој функционише. О томе детаљније видети у Cavalheiro & Cavalheiro, 2022.
7. Ипак, слажемо се у потпуности са ауторима који указују на то да је због релативне краткоће времена трајања врхунца пандемије и дневних флуктуација тешко извести сигурне закључке, не толико да ли је, већ у којој мери је пандемија заправо иницирала промене на традиционалном финансијском тржишту (Vareško i Deković, 2022).
8. Укупна количина биткоина која се може наћи у оптицају ограничена је на 21.000.000 кроз тзв. source code који се сматра непроменљивим. Ипак, будући да је Биткоин суштински особени софтвер, он није апсолутно затворен за измене, но, да би се таква измена десила у потпуно децентрализованом систему, потребно је да већина „нодова” у мрежи изрази сагласност са предложеним повећањем волумена биткоина. Сасвим је основано закључити да у мрежи са хиљадама „нодова” који су„DeFi ентузијасти” није вероватно формирати већину око става да се мрежа одрекне „ограничене понуде” као особине која је чини апсолутно супериорном у односу на традиционалне монетарне системе.
9. Мрежа је програмирана тако да се комплексност математичког проблема који је потребно решити у процесу „рударења” управља према количини већ изрудареног биткоина. Сваки блок има капацитет од 1МВ, што му омогућава да у себи меморише око 4.000 трансакција. Блок плански бива попуњен сваких 10 минута у просеку. Сваким додатим блоком у оптицај се пушта одређена количина нових биткоина. На сваких 210.000 доданих блокова, број биткоина који ће бити пуштен у оптицај по блоку смањује се за једну половину (halving). То нам омогућава да имамо извесну динамику пуштања јединица у оптицај (Antonopoulos, 2014; Horvatić i Tafra, 2022).
10. Примера ради, процена је да су само Сједињене Америчке Државе у последњих неколико месеци у оптицај пустиле преко 3,5 трилиона нових банкнота, а да је Европска централна банка дала зелено светло за штампање преко једног трилиона евра.
11. Ley Bitcoin, Diario Oficial ES, 110/2021, Decreto No 57.
12. République Centrafricaine Cryptomonnaie, Journal Officiel CAF, 22/2022.
13. Ова настојања, иако и она потврђују капацитет криптовалута заснованих на блокчејн технологији, суштински не треба мешати са настојањима држава или наддржавних институција да изграде своје дигиталне и криптовалуте. О томе детаљније видети у Mijatović, 2022.

Закључна разматрања (увод у наредни рад)

Процес дигитализације новца реорганизује постојећу пословну праксу и доноси социјалне, политичке, онтолошке, чак и еколошке промене, a истовремено интензивира концетрацију и централизацију у процесу доношења одлука на глобалном нивоу (Ström, 2020). Но, криптовалуте, пре свега Биткоин, иако јесу дигиталне по свом карактеру, не прате ову тенденцију. Управо супротно, Биткоин почива на идеји свесног одрицања контроле управљачких механизама у корист мреже компјутера која покреће софтвер (Magnuson, 2022; Ruslina, 2019). Он представља модел утопијског нивоа глобалне децентрализације, и то не само у финансијском сектору. То је темељна идеја која је окупила највећи, свакодневно растући број учесника у систему (25).

Иако је због новине феномена и непостојања адекватне временске дистанце у односу на коју бисмо процењивали стварне ефекте незахвално изводити закључке или правити пројекције, сматрамо, а то је уједно став и у академским круговима, да криптовалуте представљају изванредну новину (Karabulut & Sari, 2022). Оне засноване на блокчејн технологији, а које нису централизоване, имају моћ да национална тржишта претворе у регионална, а регионална даље у глобална. У том смислу заиста делује као да историја глобализације не памти инструмент који у тој мери интензивира дешавања и процесе.

Уколико то ипак није довољно за закључак да су криптовалуте, засноване на блокчејн технологији, изванредан катализатор процеса глобализације, онда треба нагласити следеће. Изградња и пуштање у рад Биткоина, али и читавог низа других пројеката, објективно, у другом је плану у односу на изградњу такозваног DeFi система, којем су пут трасирала техничка и економска решења имплементирана у Биткоин. Систем је осмишљен тако да у својој идеалној форми, уз напомену да је систем још увек у изградњи, обезбеђује: 1) пуну контролу средстава; 2) апсолутну инклузивност; 3) децентрализовану верификацију исправног рада система; 4) неограничену могућност изградње нових финансијских услуга и производа (Werner et al., 2021). Андреас Антонопулос у својим многобројним предавањима прави аналогију у односу на интернет из времена када је једина апликација унутар система била имејл. Он истиче да уколико DeFi монетарни систем упоредимо са интернетом, Биткоин, иако импресиван по својим технолошким решењима, био би тек имејл, односно прва функционална апликација унутар система. Данас, верујемо, не најбоља и дефинитивно не једина.

Иако идеја делује футуристички, делови DeFi система постају видљиви. Унутар њега је већ могуће успешно куповати, продавати, штедети, закључити уговор о осигурању или кредиту, трговати акцијама, инвестирати, водити хуманитарне фондове, све без интервенције државе, без посредника, без територијалних ограничења, уз криптографски гарантовану безбедност (26). Према доступним подацима, простор је у сталном порасту: конкретно, за непуне две године укупна вредност у промету је порасла са 700 милиона на 150 милијарди америчких долара (Werner et al., 2021). Систем је у повоју и потребно је још много рада да би он постао потпуно оперативан и одржив на нормативном нивоу (Werner et al., 2021). Но, чињеница је да на идеолошком нивоу представља озбиљну претњу постојећем ригидном финансијском систему.

Ипак, степен глобализованости којем данашње друштво тежи не окончава се ни окончањем радова на изградњи DeFi система. Ако уз извесну дозу апстракције пратимо претходно поменуту аналогију Андреаса Антонопулоса, слично као што Биткоин налази примену као један од функционалних елемената DeFi система без обзира на ком блокчејну је изграђен, DeFi систем је тек један од механизма, односно апликација унутар далеко већег пројекта познатог под називом Web 3.0. Блокчејн технологија сматра се есенцијалном за реализацију сада већ мејнстрим идеја у технолошком свету познатих као „интернет ствари” (IoT) и „интернет свега” (IoE) (Horvatić i Tafra, 2022). Ови пројекти децентрализовану глобализацију промовишу шире, тј. ван економских токова, наравно, примарно у дигиталном свету. Но, како су свакодневне активности данас неодвојиво везане за интернет, остварени ефекти глобализованости у дигиталном свету, очекивано, прелиће се у све сфере друштвеног живота.

---

1. И не само да је број учесника у мрежи и корисника у сталном порасту, већ је и тржиште криптовалута све веће према економским критеријумима. Процена је да само тржиште биткоина достиже размере од 1,2 трилиона америчких долара (Cavalheiro & Cavalheiro, 2022).
2. Приказ појединих маркантних решења са техничким специфичностима, мада нису сви део DeFi система, видети у Mijatović, 2022.

---

Литература

• Антић, Ч. (2003). Глобализација и историја. У: М. Вучинић (ур.), Аспекти глобализације (стр. 42−49). Београд: Београдска отворена школа. http ://www.bos. rs/materijali/aspekti.pdf
• Димитријевић, М. (2018). Електронски новац у савременом монетарном праву. Зборник радова Правног факултета у Нишу, 57 (81), 221–236. https ://doi. org/10.5937/zrpfni1983061D
• Марковић, Д. Ж. и Булатовић, И. Ж. (2014). Социологија – основни појмови и савремено друштво. Београд: Београдска пословна школа − Висока школа струковних студија.
• Печујлић, М. (2002). Глобализација – два лика света. Београд: Гутенбергова галаксија. Попић, С. (2018). Идеје о глобализацији у часопису „Социолошки преглед” – могућност примене Хелдове поделе школа мишљења. Социолошки преглед, 52 (1), 147–180. https ://doi.org/10.5937/socpreg52-16798
• Попић, С. и Шуваковић, У. (2014). Академик Радомир Д. Лукић – претеча проучавања глобализације у Србији. Теме, 1 (38), 377−390.
• Радуловић, С. (2017). Аутономни концепт односа лекара и пацијента као продукт другог таласа глобализације. Зборник радова Правног факултета у Нишу, 56 (76), 467−478.
• Џамић, В. (2014). Глобализација: њено теоријско утемељење и њене противречности. Зборник Матице српске за друштвене науке, 149, 1001−1011. https:// doi.org/10.2298/ZMSDN1449001D
• Шуваковић, У. (2013). Традиција и модернизација. Српска политичка мисао, 41 (3), 57−75.
• Abramowitz, M. B. (2016). Cryptocurrency-based law. Arizona Law Review, 58(2), 359–420. Antonopoulos, A. (2010). Mastering Bitcoin: Unlocking Digital Cryptocurrencies. Sebastopol: O’Reilly Media, Inc.
• Blaazer, D. (2020). Bitcoin in the longue durée: Money, the state and cryptocurrency. Australian Humanities Review, 66, 196−203. Calcaterra, C., Kaal, W. A., & Rao, V. (2020). Stable cryptocurrencies. Washington University Journal of Law & Policy, 61, 193−227.
• Cavalheiro, G. M. do C., & Cavalheiro, M. B. (2022). Assessing technological trends through patent landscaping: The case of bitcoin. Journal of World Intellectual Property, 25(1), 206–219. https ://doi.org/10.1111/jwip.12216
• Chumakov, A. N. (2010). Philosophy of Globalization. Moscow: MAKS Press.
• Cifrić, I. (2009). Kultura i okoliš. Zaprešić: VŠPU.
• Domišljanović, M. (2000). Globalizacija i mogućnost izbora. Diskrepancija, 1 (2), 41−45.
• Garratt, R., & Wallace, N. (2018). Bitcoin 1, Bitcoin 2, ...: An experiment in privately issued outside monies. Economic Inquiry, 56(3), 1887−1897. https: //doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12569
• Giddens, A. (1990). The Consequences of Modernity. Stanford: Stanford University Press Hayek, F. A. (1976). Denationalization of Money (An Analysis of the Theory and Practice of Concurrent Currencies). London: The Institute of Economic Affairs.
• Horvatić, H. i Tafra, V. (2022). Identifikacija komercijalne blockchain tehnologije te izazovi i opasnosti primjene kroz konkretne primjere. Obrazovanje za poduzetništvo – E4E, 12 (2), 105−120. https ://doi.org/10.38190/ope.12.2.7
• Karabulut, T., & Sari, S. S. (2022). The attitude of academic staff towards bitcoin. Ekonomski vjesnik, 35 (1), 55−67. https ://doi.org/10.51680/ev.35.1.5
• Magnuson, J. W. (2022). The failure of market efficiency. Brigham Young University Law Review, 48(3), 827−908. http ://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4096270
• Mellor, M. (2020). Bitcoin and the myths of neoliberalism. Australian Humanities Review, 66, 204−209.
• Mijatović, N. (2022). Pravna (ne)uređenost kriptovaluta i njihov utjecaj na industriju osiguranja. Hrvatski časopis za osiguranje, 6, 93−106.
• Mirjanich, N. (2014). Digital money: Bitcoin’s financial and tax future despite regulatory uncertainty. DePaul Law Review, 64(1), 213–248.
• Nahorniak, I., Leonova, K., & Skorokhod, V. (2016). Cryptocurrency in the context of development of digital single market in European Union. InterEULawEast, 3(1), 107–124.
• Raskin, M. I. (2015). Realm of the coin: Bitcoin and civil procedure. Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law, 20(4), 969–1011.
• Ronaghi, M. H. (2023). A contextualized study of blockchain technology adoption as a digital currency platform under sanctions. Management Decision, 61(5), 1352−1373. https ://doi.org/10.1108/MD-03-2022-0392
• Ruslina, E. (2019). Legal protection for bitcoin users in E-commerce transactions. Journal of Internet Law, 23(4), 3–6.
• Sławiński, A. (2019). Will IT technologies and globalisation change the mechanism of money creation?. Zarządzanie Publiczne / Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie, 4(50), 5–14. https ://doi.org/10.15678/ZP.2019.50.4.01
• Šoja, T. i Senarathne, C. W. (2019). Bitcoin i diversifikacija portfolija – perspektiva globalnog investitora. Bankarstvo, 48 (4), 44−63. https ://doi.org/10.5937/bankarstvo1904044S Ström, Т. Е. (2020). Abstracting money: Cryptocurrencies, cybernetics and contradictions. Australian Humanities Review, 66, 188−195.
• Syropyatov, V. A. (2021). Stablecoins as an implementation of Hayek’s private money theory. Russian Journal of Economics and Law, 2, 318–331. http ://dx.doi. org/10.21202/1993-047X.15.2021.2.318-331
• Teomete Yalabık, F., & Yalabık, İ. (2019). Anonymous bitcoin v enforcement law. International Review of Law, Computers & Technology, 33(1), 34–52.
• Vareško, A. i Deković, D. (2022). Utjecaj pandemije COVID 19 na povezanost kretanja cijena bitcoina i vodećih svjetskih burzovnih indeksa. Zbornik radova Međimurskog veleučilišta u Čakovcu, 13 (2), 89−99.
• Wen, F., Tong, X., & Ren, X. (2022). Gold or bitcoin, which is the safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic?. International Review of Financial Analysis, 81, 102–121. https ://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102121
• Werner, S. M., Perez, D., Gudgeon, L., Klages-Mundt, A., Harz, D., & Knottenbelt, W. J. (2021). SoK: Decentralized finance. arXiv preprint arXiv:2101.08778, 1−17.
• Zebec, S. (2018). Pravna regulacija bitcoina i ostalih virtualnih valuta u nekim neeuropskim zemljama i hrvatskom zakonodavstvu. Zbornik radova Međimurskog veleučilišta u Čakovcu, 9 (1), 87−91.
• Živanović, V. i Vitomir, J. (2022). Nove tehnologije i uloga kriptovaluta na nivou in- vesticionog portfolija. Megatrend revija, 19 (1), 1−16. https ://doi.org/10.5937/ MegRev2201001Z

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Marty's Bent

via levelsio

Over the weekend, prolific vibe coder levelsio took to X to complain about the state of housing affordability across Europe. Something that I was very happy to see considering the fact that there is a massive real estate affordability crisis across much of the world and it is important that people who are respected and have platforms speak out when they identify the problem as well. More eyes and focus on the problem is how something begins to get solved.

With that being said, I think levelsio is missing the forest for the trees by blaming institutionalized NIMBYism, burdensome regulations and governments hoarding land that should instead be given to developers to produce more housing supply. I quote tweeted this particular tweet on the subject from levelsio and wanted to take some time today to republish those thoughts here and expand on the topic.

It’s almost as if real estate is being used as a store of value asset instead of the consumable good that it is.

What @levelsio is observing here is called a “monetary premium”. A monetary premium is the value added on top of the consumable/aesthetic/location value of real estate.

This monetary premium exist because central banks and governments have distorted the market for money and people are forced to push value into assets that are scarce relative to dollars. Over the last 50 years real estate has been one of the relatively scarce assets of choice.

The housing affordability crisis is a negative externality of the market reaction to the corruption of money. It can only be fixed by re-introducing hard money into the economy that enables people to store value reliably. If that emerges they won’t have to store value in real estate, the monetary premium of real estate will dissolve and prices will correct to their proper valuations.

This is one of the problems that bitcoin solves.

It’s still early yet, but more and more people are recognizing the utility provided by a neutral reserve asset that can’t be manipulated by central planners. At scale, the effect on assets that have accumulated a monetary premium over decades will be material. All of these assets are significantly overvalued and their monetary premium are leaking into bitcoin.

Put another way, "It's the money, stupid." Now, this isn't to say that the supply of housing in certain areas being artificially restricted isn't having an effect on the price of housing. This is certainly true, especially in cities like San Francisco where there is a relatively strong demand because of the economic density of the area and the desire of many high agency and productive people to live there. But I would put forth that the monetary premium is still the bigger problem and no amount of de-regulation to enable the supply of housing to increase will solve the affordability crisis in the long-run. The only way to get to the root of this specific problem is via bitcoin's mainstream adoption as an apolitical uncontrollable asset with completely idiosyncratic risks when compared to any individual asset class.

Let's say the government did ease up regulations and local NIMBY sympathetics were shoved in a corner to allow new units to be built. This doesn't solve the problem in the short-run because there is a time-delay between when regulations are lifted and when new supply actually makes it to market. In the interim, governments and central banks are inevitably going to go further into debt and be forced to print money to monetize that debt. This will exacerbate inflation and even if new real estate units are brought to market, the builders/owners of those properties will likely have to demand elevated prices to attempt to keep up with inflation.

This also does nothing to solve the problem of real income and wage growth, which are significantly lagging real inflation. Even if prices came down because of a surge in supply, could the Common Man afford a down payment on the property? I'd be shocked if this was the case. And since it's likely not the case the only way to get people into these houses as "owners" would be to offer them zero-down financing, which makes people feel richer than they actually are and leads them to make financially ruinous decisions.

It's the money, stupid. People need a way to save so that they can buy in the first place. Fiat currency doesn't allow this and the only people who can save effectively are those who make enough money to funnel into substitute store of value assets like real estate.

As it stands today, the price-to-income ratio of real estate is 5.0x and the price-t0-rent index is 1.36. Up from 3.3x and 1.14x respectively where the metrics sat in the year 2000. The growth in these ratios is driven predominately via their monetary premium.

And guess what, it's about to get much worse. Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Elon Musk have all signaled that the plan moving forward is to attempt to drive growth and productivity as high as possible while also letting deficits and the debt increase unabated, which means that inflation is likely to continue unabated and potentially increase.

It might make sense to get some bitcoin if that is the case.

via me

"Whale in the Pool" Risk That Could Destroy MSTY Investors

Jessy Gilger raised serious concerns about MSTY and similar derivative products that promise eye-popping yields. He pointed to the COVID crash where gold mining ETFs using derivatives collapsed 95% and never recovered, despite gold itself performing well. Jessy noted that while his team calculated reasonable MicroStrategy covered call yields of 16-22%, MSTY advertises 120% annualized distributions - a red flag that suggests these aren't sustainable dividends from profits, but potentially just returning investors' own capital.

"If a whale pees in the pool, everyone is affected." - Jessy Gilger

Jessy explained that when large investors need to exit these pooled products during market stress, they must sell derivative positions into illiquid markets with no buyers, potentially triggering catastrophic losses for all participants. His solution? Private pools through separately managed accounts that achieve similar income goals without the contagion risk of being trapped with panicking whales.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Gannett Trust's multi-sig solution, Bitcoin retirement planning and corporate treasury strategies.

Headlines of the Day

World's Largest Bitcoin Conference Starts Tomorrow- via X

Remixpoint to Buy Additional ¥1 Billion in Bitcoin - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Marty to Judge Bitcoin World Record Try in Vegas - via X

---

Take the First Step Off the Exchange

Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.

Take control. Start with Bitkey.

Use the promo code *“TFTC20”* during checkout for 20% off

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

Looking forward to a fun, productive and wholesome week in Las Vegas, Nevada.

---

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:

@media screen and (max-width: 480px) { .mobile-padding { padding: 10px 0 !important; } .social-container { width: 100% !important; max-width: 260px !important; } .social-icon { padding: 0 !important; } .social-icon img { height: 32px !important; width: 32px !important; } .icon-cell { padding: 0 4px !important; } } .mj-column-per-33-333333333333336 { width: 25% !important; max-width: 25%; } .moz-text-html .mj-column-per-33-333333333333336 { width: 25% !important; max-width: 25%; } /* Helps with rendering in various email clients */ body { margin: 0 !important; padding: 0 !important; -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100% !important; -ms-text-size-adjust: 100% !important; } img { -ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; } /* Prevents Gmail from changing the text color in email threads */ .im { color: inherit !important; }

[](https://youtube.com/@T

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

Bluebird Mining Ventures Ltd., a UK-listed gold exploration company, has made headlines after announcing it will convert future revenues into bitcoin. This is the first time a UK mining company has committed to having a bitcoin treasury.

Bluebird Mining on X

The news sent Bluebird’s stock flying, rising 63% to £0.6 in 48 hours.

Bluebird which has gold projects in South Korea and the Philippines says this is part of a broader plan to modernize how it manages its finances.

“By adopting a ‘gold plus a digital gold’ strategy, it offers the Company an opportunity to turn the page and look to the future and seek to attract a new type of shareholder,” said Aidan Bishop, Interim CEO and Executive Director.

The company’s management believes bitcoin’s rise as a financial asset reflects growing dissatisfaction with traditional stores of value like gold.

Gold has been a reliable hedge against inflation for centuries, but bitcoin is now being seen as a digital alternative – thanks to its limited supply and independence from central bank policies.

Related: Gold at Historic Low Against Bitcoin | A Paradigm Shift?

“Gold’s position as a store of value has been under threat due to the rising global adoption of bitcoin, which some commentators have described as ‘digital gold’,” Bluebird said in a statement.

The plan is simple. Revenue from Bluebird’s gold mining projects will be used to buy bitcoin. The company says this will allow it to preserve capital and have growth potential through exposure to the digital asset market.

The digital asset will be held on the company’s balance sheet as a long-term reserve asset, just like some companies hold gold or cash. Bluebird sees this as proactive, especially in today’s volatile world of inflation, high debt, and global geopolitical tensions. Bishop said:

“I am convinced that we are witnessing a tectonic shift in global markets and that Bitcoin will reshape the landscape of financial markets on every level.”

Bluebird Mining Ventures is a small but big-thinking company.

With 7 employees and operations across Asia, it’s focused on reopening high-grade gold mines that have been closed. Its main projects are the Gubong and Kochang mines in South Korea and the Batangas Gold Project in the Philippines.

In May 2025, the company renewed its mining permit in the Philippines and is finalizing a deal with its local partner to have a “free carry” — meaning it will hold a share of the future profits without putting in any more money.

At the same time, Bluebird is preparing legal action in South Korea to protect its existing assets there, so while it loves Bitcoin, it hasn’t forgotten its mining roots.

To lead this transformation, Bluebird is currently looking for a new CEO with Bitcoin experience. The company says the right leadership will be key to navigating this hybrid financial model that combines traditional resource extraction with modern financials.

@ f7d424b5:618c51e8

GAMERS, we're back in the virtual studio for another sophisticated and gentlemanly discussion on the most important topic in the media landscape: huge anime tiddies on the best and baddest Bodytype Bs you've ever seen. I think the VA strike ended too or something.

Stuff cited:

• SB steam charts
• Commentary by Megan Shipman
• Mujin video that shows the leaked discord messages from the SAG discord

Obligatory:

• Listen to the new episode here!
• Discuss this episode on OUR NEW FORUM
• Get the RSS and Subscribe (this is a new feed URL, but the old one redirects here too!)
• Get a modern podcast app to use that RSS feed on at newpodcastapps.com
• Or listen to the show on the forum using the embedded Podverse player!
• Send your complaints here

Reminder that this is a Value4Value podcast so any support you can give us via a modern podcasting app is greatly appreciated and we will never bow to corporate sponsors!

@ 9f2b5b64:e811118f

test

@ 9f2b5b64:e811118f

test

@ 8671a6e5:f88194d1

## ParentCoin; limitless

There's this almost altcoin-like pitch of parenthood these days. I might’ve fallen for the shiny marketing of parenthood — cute baby pics, promises of legacy, the whole “you’ll change the world” vibe. I even heard a would-be mom tell me once (true story) "You know having children, you don't have to be afraid of it, as a dad it doesn't cost as much as you think". \ These people actually believe that. Just like they've fallen for every fiat-scam out there: housing, cars, holidays in France, Nike shoes, 50% taxation, religion and main stream media subscriptions.\ \ It’s 2025, and I’m revisiting this like I’d revisit an old Lightning Network post. \ \ Having kids is like chasing an altcoin airdrop with a slick but buzzword laden whitepaper and a charismatic founder who’s probably exit-scamming as soon as he gets enough of your money in their bank account (yeah you see what I did there). If you're lucky that founder might twerk from time to time to get your attention. But don't hope for too much. Now change that diaper and work an extra job to pay for all of it while inflation murders you.\ \ While you do all that, the most damaging thing about the Having Children Shitcoin (HCS) is the time it takes. It literally can't be shorted like some token on an exchange. It laughs, plays around with your tech gadgets, has to be potty trained (like some altcoin founders) and needs attention, education and a lot of proof of work.\ But the damage is the time. \ The time it takes to do all that, is actually replacing value with time. \ Bitcoin might be a product of proof of work, HCS is not a product but the actual proof of work without the value proposition.\ On top of that, the founder usually lives rent-free in your head your whole life, or even worse: you literally live together with her/him.\ Imagine Satoshi Nakamoto living at your house right now. Like... hi Satoshi.. love your bitcoin man.\ "Yeah, thanks moth**f****r, when are going to buy more skittle and some toilet paper? We ran out 10 minutes ago when I shit all over your dirty toilet, ..."\ "Eh, But Satoshi, why don't you go to the shop to..."\ "Shut up you f'ing a--hole, you made me! You made me what I am today! You liked me when I invented thàh bitcoin right? Now get me some toilet paper and here's a list of items I want from the supermarket! Lazy dumb idiot."\ "You'll clean up the kitchen right?"\ "Yeah yeah, rolls eyes, after my Netflix series man... now get out"\ \ This might sound far-fetched but founders of shitcoins steal your money, while children steal your time ànd money while you have to endure the founders as well.

Time is slowly damaging you while you live your life further and further away from the hard-money proposition. Hell, you even will need to sell some hard money to get by. Because it's a rotten world and children make you short sighted about the future (it limits you to maximum 3 years ahead in my experience with people around me).

Long-term is your enemy Short-term is your prison

You’re hyped for the long-term gains—multi-generational dynasties, just like the elites—but the fine print? It’s a mess. I’m here to unpack the hope, the scepticism, and the grim reality of raising kids in a world that feels like it’s speedrunning towards the absolute bottom. Let me make that clearer:

Our power (as bitcoiners) doesn't grow with these new generations, because we're being out-Idiocracy'd at a rate we can’t reproduce our way out of. Bitcoiners don’t scale. Even if you produce two children that both become die-hard bitcoin maximalists (with a nasal voice and a fondness for TD-sequential analysis.

The Mirage of Birth Having a kid is like snagging a hyped-up crypto airdrop. You’re told it’s “free” value — new life, pure joy, a legacy token dropped into your wallet. Everyone’s tweeting about it, posting ultrasound pics like they just scored 10,000 USDC worth of free shitcoin tokens.

But then the transaction fees hit, getting another place to live more accommodating, getting a school, adopt a dad body demeaner while torpedoing your social life and having no fun other than baking cakes and getting less pussy than a laser pointer with dead batteries. Adjust for inflation), sleepless nights, a vortex of money being vaporized and a lifetime of HODLing a position you can’t dump nor short. You’re basically the holder of last resort for a diatribe of chaos. You’re the entry, the trade, and exit liquidity. The real kicker? Society’s cheering you on while you’re stuck debugging your life and seeing your time drained. You’re frozen in time, while you should be scaling ideas. \ \ Or getting more out of life than being the channelling of funds to a future fiat oppressed kid. Meanwhile, parents (if they stay together that is... with relations with kids having their own version of the bitcoin “halving”, be it every 7 years or so. The parents follow the higher noble goal and get some love and nice moments in return. \ \ They’re stacking diapers instead of sats, living above a dry cleaner next to a subway station that rattles your soul. You can’t short kids, no matter how much you see the “childfree” crowd thriving. The childfree crowd is also not always that neutral, as many of them want this same life, because the marketing, as with many shitcoins is excellent. It makes life more fun, more fulfilling, more whole, while promising you cheap, fast and always immutable transactions. You’re getting duped. \ You buy more stuff, more hobbies no one cares about, and smile at other parents at these gatherings like you’re at the whale room at a bitcoin conference in a bear market. Keep smiling, bitches. That’s you’re life now. The numbers don’t lie. Society sells parenthood as a Bitcoin-level HODL, but the safety net is thinner than a layer-2 solution created by an Albanian exchange.

Raising kids is like betting your airdropped tokens will moon into a blue-chip asset that takes care of you when you’re old. You’re hoping they’ll HODL your hand, not rug-pull you into a nursing home when their “value” spikes. It’s a gamble: will they be decent humans or turn into TikTok zombies? Back in the day, kids were economic assets, working the farm or whatever. Now? You’re praying they don’t ghost you after college or at least recognize all the proof of work you did for them. And yes, you can have a big impact on them, that’s something to be proud of if it works out. But in the end, you are you, a person, with dreams, hopes and needs. \ And your children are too,... they’ll always win. \ \ Teaching them to ride a bike is fun, but it’s like a shitcoin pumping on a founder’s tweet: fleeting, followed by a crash whenever you see the effects of your years of de-progress and social isolation. Socializing with other parents is like making friends with a fellow prisoner of war in some jungle camp, ... you’ll have to be nice because it’s all you have left of society’s pleasantries. So you make small talk or a little joke about a toy someone’s kid has brought to the playground. The real world would see these people piss all over your grave if they could. They’re the figurehead on a ship of fools. And you play along because you’re a total bitch that got stuck in the routine of the famous HCS. Finding trust is hard, certainly in a city’s virtual prison camp where you play Russian roulette for other people’s amusement. It’s like running a Lightning node — fun in theory, but you’re babysitting a system that crashes when you need it most. The highs are real, but “kinda fun” doesn’t cut it when you’re debugging life. \ \ The 35k to 200k € it will cost you throughout your life, is not measurable as gains or losses. Look at the lovely baby pictures, look at their school results, the painting they made especially for you saying “I love you, for the best dad/mom in the whole world”. It hits straight to your brain’s nucleus accumbens. It’s all the balanced injection of the right shot of chemical balanced reward center (ventral tegmental area) food. \ And people with kids wanted that because that’s what the system and urges are. Kids are a leveraged position with no stop-loss, unlike an airdrop you can dump when the hype fades. You’re all-in, praying society doesn’t crash before your “asset” matures. In the meanwhile, you get the occasional surprise through your mesolimbic pathway. \ \ "Happy you" proof of stakes' the unhappy you later. You could be in the Maldives diving into clear water while talking to another “founder”. Funny how that works. \ Meanwhile, the childfree are staking their tokens and chilling. \ Parents aren’t building dynasties; we’re just trying not to get rug-pulled by daycare costs and rotten school-systems that learn our kids to be obedient consumers and non-thinking parrots. It’s a financial social anti-grind with no cure, and the charts, unlike fiat-corporate nonsense, don’t lie.

The elites stack power like blue-chip stocks, minting wealth across centuries. Us? Our kids might be fighting over the leftovers while they battle their way through university diversity and mediocracy. Future generations are supposed to carry the torch, but consumerism and cultural decay make it feel like we’re being out-Idiocracy’d. \ We need to think long-term, teach kids to code, stack sats, and question the system. But above all else, we need them to learn that being more evil is more just. Being complacent in this farce of a system means always, and I mean always, that the multi-generational monsters will prevail. \ \ They’re more stubborn, faster, better educated and they take the shortcuts you can’t have. We have hard money, they have “hard world”.

Conclusion

Eighteen years into this parenting thing (or eight minutes—who’s counting?), it’s clear: kids are a shitcoin airdrop with no exit strategy for you. \ The highs are sweet, the costs are brutal, and the long-term. A gamble on humanity in a world trending toward a broad brush of average things made normal.

Maybe it’s not about winning the bitcoin standard, but betting on something bigger than yourself within yourself, even if that market’s rigged with traps and detractors everywhere. Stack sats, stack diapers, and pray your kids don’t rug-pull your heart. \ Because, let’s face it, we’re not the Rothschilds — we’re just HODLing and hoping. \ While we should be fighting with the hardest money. \ While your baby cries for more food, I hear Michael Jackson sing “If you can’t feed your baby hi hee-hee, then don’t have a baybaah”. \ \ The sad part is, that we're all torn between chasing the fiat-created dreams and the reality that everything is in fact a shitcoin sapping either your time, money or effort. \ Even within the bitcoin space, we don't realize what the next step should be.\ It certainly isn't big families. That's for sure.

AVB\ tipjar: https://allesvoorbitcoin.be/donate/

@ 3ffac3a6:2d656657

🛡️ Tutorial: Secure SSH Access over Cloudflare Tunnel (Docker Optional)

🎯 Objective

Set up a Cloudflare Tunnel to securely expose SSH access to your system without revealing your home IP or requiring port forwarding. This enables secure remote access even behind NAT, CGNAT, or dynamic IP environments.

This guide:

• Uses Cloudflare Tunnels to proxy traffic
• Does not expose your home IP address
• Uses Docker + Docker Compose for orchestration (optional)
• Can be adapted to run under systemd directly if preferred

---

🔧 Prerequisites

• A domain managed via Cloudflare DNS
• SSH server running on your machine (default port 22)
• Temporary access to the cloudflared CLI (for tunnel creation)

• Either:

• Docker and Docker Compose (used in this example), or

• A native systemd service (alternative not covered here)

---

🪜 Step-by-Step Instructions

---

1. Install and Authenticate cloudflared

Install cloudflared (temporary):

bash curl -L https://github.com/cloudflare/cloudflared/releases/latest/download/cloudflared-linux-amd64 \ -o cloudflared && chmod +x cloudflared && sudo mv cloudflared /usr/local/bin/

Login with your Cloudflare account:

bash cloudflared tunnel login

This will open a browser and link the machine to your Cloudflare zone.

---

2. Create the Tunnel

Create a named tunnel:

bash cloudflared tunnel create ssh-tunnel

This creates a credential file, e.g.:

~/.cloudflared/5f84da12-e91b-4d2e-b4f0-7ca842f622f1.json

---

3. Define the Tunnel Routing Configuration

Create the tunnel config:

bash nano ~/.cloudflared/config.yml

Example:

```yaml tunnel: ssh-tunnel credentials-file: /etc/cloudflared/5f84da12-e91b-4d2e-b4f0-7ca842f622f1.json

ingress: - hostname: secure-ssh.example.com service: ssh://localhost:22 - service: http_status:404 ```

Then bind the hostname to the tunnel:

bash cloudflared tunnel route dns ssh-tunnel secure-ssh.example.com

Replace secure-ssh.example.com with your own subdomain under Cloudflare management.

---

4. Prepare File Permissions for Docker Use (Optional)

If using Docker, cloudflared runs as a non-root user (UID 65532), so grant it access to your config and credentials:

bash sudo chown 65532:65532 ~/.cloudflared sudo chown 65532:65532 ~/.cloudflared/*

---

5. Define docker-compose.yml (Optional)

yaml version: "3.8" services: cloudflared: image: cloudflare/cloudflared:latest container_name: cloudflared-ssh-tunnel restart: unless-stopped volumes: - ${HOME}/.cloudflared:/etc/cloudflared:ro - ${HOME}/.cloudflared:/home/nonroot/.cloudflared:ro command: tunnel run ssh-tunnel network_mode: host

📝 Docker is used here for convenience and automation. You may alternatively run cloudflared tunnel run ssh-tunnel directly under systemd or a background process.

---

6. Start the Tunnel

Start the container:

bash cd ~/docker/sshtunnel docker compose up -d docker logs -f cloudflared-ssh-tunnel

You should see Registered tunnel connection and other success logs.

---

7. Connect to the Tunnel from Remote Systems

Option A: Ad-hoc connection with cloudflared access tcp

bash cloudflared access tcp --hostname secure-ssh.example.com --url localhost:2222

In another terminal:

bash ssh -p 2222 youruser@localhost

Option B: Permanent SSH Configuration

Edit ~/.ssh/config:

ssh Host secure-home HostName secure-ssh.example.com User youruser IdentityFile ~/.ssh/id_rsa ProxyCommand cloudflared access ssh --hostname %h

Then connect with:

bash ssh secure-home

---

✅ Result

• Secure SSH access via a public domain (e.g., secure-ssh.example.com)
• No ports open to the public Internet
• IP address of your machine remains hidden from Cloudflare clients
• Easily extendable to expose other services in future

---

🔁 Optional Enhancements

• Run as a systemd service instead of Docker for lower overhead
• Use autossh or systemd to maintain persistent reverse tunnels
• Expand to forward additional ports (e.g., Bitcoin RPC, application APIs)
• Apply strict firewall rules to limit SSH access to localhost only

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

edit time

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

button #2 nj

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

schedule #1

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

When Richard Scotford moved to Costa Rica in 2018, he had no idea he would become a key figure in a thriving Bitcoin economy.

A longtime Bitcoin holder who initially saw it through the lens of speculation, Scotford’s journey led him to embrace Bitcoin’s deeper purpose and spearhead Bitcoin Jungle — a grassroots movement bringing real-world Bitcoin adoption to Costa Rica.

Bitcoin circular economies create holistic value for Bitcoiners

Bitcoin Jungle is inspired by Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador but uniquely adapted to Costa Rica’s economic landscape. Unlike El Salvador, where Bitcoin was positioned as a tool for financial inclusion, Costa Rica already has a fairly stable banking system.

The real issue? The friction of moving money. Expats, business owners, and tourists struggle with high fees, banking red tape, and slow transactions. Bitcoin helped solve a lot of these problems.

The Birth of Bitcoin Jungle

Scotford and his team launched Bitcoin Jungle in late 2021 with a simple goal: get bitcoin into people’s hands and make it usable. However, there was one challenge — he had no technical background.

Determined to create a circular bitcoin economy, Scotford networked aggressively. He attended the first Adopting Bitcoin conference in El Salvador, approaching strangers with his vision:

“I was just walking around trying to find people who could help me make this economy, going up to random people saying ‘Hey, what can you do? We’re trying to make a circular economy in Costa Rica, can you help us?’ They all thought I was crazy.”

The breakthrough came when he turned to Bitcoin Twitter. Nicolas Burtey from Galoy encouraged him to create a wallet, and developer Lee Salminen forked the Bitcoin Beach wallet for their project. 

“Within two weeks of Adopting Bitcoin, Lee forked the Galoy Bitcoin Beach wallet, which took Galoy by surprise. Even though they made their wallet to be forked if necessary, I don’t think they were expecting people to do it so fast and, I’d like to say, so well. They were like, ‘Okay, cool, who are these guys doing this?’”

Finally Bitcoin Jungle had its own working wallet, surprising even the Galoy team with the speed of execution.

Grassroots Adoption: One Vendor at a Time

How do you build a bitcoin economy from scratch? Scotford’s answer was simple: start at the farmers’ markets.

“We were like, okay, we’re going to get all the bespoke niche market sellers who are in this area. We have all these beautiful farmers markets, and we decided to approach these people first,” Scotford explained.

His team took a strategic approach, targeting market gatekeepers first.

“If you want to talk to every individual person, it’s really difficult. But if you can talk to the person who is the owner of the market, and then they can introduce you to their market stores, you’re already halfway there.”

Going stall by stall, they pitched Bitcoin’s advantages — no bank fees and better payment options. But adoption didn’t happen overnight, so Bitcoin Jungle initially offered a safety net — vendors could cash out at the end of the day.

“We would say to the vendors, ‘Look, accept bitcoin, and at the end of the day, if you don’t want to keep the bitcoin, we’ll buy it off you,’” Scotford recalled.

“When we first started, maybe 30–40% of the vendors were cashing up every day or at the weekends. Lee would be walking around with big fistfuls of money, cashing out vendors.”

But over time, something shifted — they started keeping their bitcoin.

“Eventually, the vendors started to learn themselves that, ‘Oh, actually it’s better to keep it.’ They would then pay for their tables in the markets using bitcoin. They thought, ‘Well, I don’t want to keep this bitcoin, I don’t really know what to do with it, but I can pay for my table.’ So there, the circular economy starts to happen.”

Today, Bitcoin Jungle runs with minimal intervention, and Scotford takes pride in their reliability.

“When you come here to Costa Rica, what we really pride ourselves on is that if someone says they accept bitcoin, 99% of the time, they will. And if they’re part of Bitcoin Jungle, they will 100% accept bitcoin and you will have a fluid experience with it.”

By mid-summer 2024 over 380 locations in Costa Rica accepted bitcoin

The Bitcoin Jungle Wallet and Real Usage

Bitcoin Jungle is an open-source community project built on the Bitcoin Lightning Network.

Acting as a community bank, the project processes a large number of transactions daily. To encourage proper security practices, Scotford’s team alerts their peers, reminding users to move their bitcoin to cold storage.

“If you’ve got too much bitcoin on your wallet, we send you a message telling you to move it to cold storage,” he explained. For larger businesses, they even offer hands-on assistance to secure funds properly.

Unlike the HODL-only philosophy that many Bitcoiners advocate, Bitcoin Jungle encourages spending.

“Michael Saylor says don’t spend your bitcoin. We say the opposite,” Scotford laughed. “We’re the antithesis of that. You need to spend it.”

Bitcoin Jungle’s Unique Approach to Costa Rica

Bitcoin Jungle isn’t just another Bitcoin adoption effort; it’s tailored to Costa Rica’s economy. The wallet operates in Costa Rican colónes, making transactions feel familiar to residents while ensuring tourists and expats can still interact easily.

The team has also introduced low-fee bitcoin ATMs, point-of-sale integrations, and partnerships that allow users to pay in bitcoin while the recipient receives local currency.

A major breakthrough came when Francis Pouliot from Bull Bitcoin joined forces with Bitcoin Jungle, bringing his expertise in banking infrastructure to the project.

This collaboration enabled seamless bitcoin payments that integrate directly with Costa Rica’s financial system, allowing users to pay anyone, even businesses that don’t directly accept bitcoin, while the recipient receives funds in colónes or dollars.

“I can go to a hardware store, order steel for my new basketball court, pay in bitcoin, and the store gets dollars,” Scotford said. “For a non-tech guy like me, it’s magical.”

Why Aren’t There More Bitcoin Jungles?

Scotford sees an opportunity for more localized bitcoin economies.

“There should be a Bitcoin Harbor, a Bitcoin Mountain, a Bitcoin Driveway,” he joked. “But instead of waiting for permission or corporate funding, people need to take action themselves.”

He emphasizes that building a circular bitcoin economy doesn’t require deep pockets. “I probably gave away $600 worth of bitcoin when we started — just $3 here, $4 there — to get people using it.”

The Future of Bitcoin Jungle

Bitcoin Jungle continues to grow, recently hosting events like the Bitcoin Freedom Festival and integrating bitcoin into community projects, including a school where tuition can be paid in bitcoin.

“The institutions have come in, but the grassroots projects haven’t caught up,” Scotford observed. “It’s time for people to stop sitting on their hands and start building.”

Bitcoin is permissionless, no one has to wait for approval to start using it. Bitcoin Jungle proves that with vision and persistence, anyone can build a thriving Bitcoin economy, one market stall at a time.

Get the latest from Bitcoin Jungle: follow them on X

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

12

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

heyyyy

@ 866e0139:6a9334e5

Autor: Bernd Schoepe. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.

Die Anmerkungen zum Text (Fußnoten) folgen aus technischen Gründen gesondert.

---

Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.

---

Dies ist Teil 3 des Essays. Lesen Sie hier Teil 1 und Teil 2.

IV  Denazifizierungsstopp und die „abgesagte“ NS-Aufarbeitung in der Adenauer-Ära

„Nie wieder Krieg, nie wieder Faschismus!“

Dieses Gelöbnis erfuhr seine Ausformulierung, als die durch Krieg und Verfolgung charakterlich tief geprägten und für ihr Leben gezeichneten Väter und Mütter des Grundgesetzes sich 1948 zum Parlamentarischen Rat versammelten. Dort hat man vor dem Erfahrungshintergrund des Totalitarismus Nazi-Deutschlands in den neunzehn Grundrechtsartikeln die Rechte der Menschen vor dem Staat festgeschrieben, die gegen staatliche „Willkür, Ungerechtigkeit und Gewalt“ (25) schützen sollen. Sie wurden zur Grundlage eines neuen Staatsverständnisses, das vom Humanismus und dem Geist der Aufklärung getragen sein sollte. Das Gelöbnis fand seinen verfassungsmäßigen Ausdruck also im Grundgesetz, das am 23. Mai 1949 feierlich in Bonn verkündet wurde. Dessen Geist manifestiert sich besonders in der sogenannten Ewigkeitsklausel der Menschenwürde (Art.1), die den Grundrechtsartikeln, dem Kanon der Menschen- und Bürgerrechte, vorangestellt wurde.

Doch die Unterschriften unter dem Grundgesetz waren kaum trocken, da wurde dieses Gelöbnis schon durch die Frontstaatenideologie des Kalten Krieges überlagert, konterkariert und in der Praxis sukzessive aufgehoben. Der Kalte Krieg hatte bereits begonnen und seine Akteure bedienten sich ungeniert der Vorurteile und Stereotypen, mit denen die Deutschen noch gut aus dem Dritten Reich vertraut waren. Grundiert vom militanten Anti-Kommunismus, der bekanntlich auch die Nazi-Ideologie stark angetrieben hatte, verstärkt durch die Wiederbewaffnung mit der sie begleitenden Aufnahme der BRD in die NATO, konsolidiert in der Zeit der Adenauer-Restauration in den 1950er Jahren, in der ein konservativ-elitäres Staatsdenken gegenüber radikaldemokratischen Bestrebungen klar dominieren und sich durchsetzen sollte, erwies die Aufarbeitung der NS-Vergangenheit sich als der größte und folgenreichste Rohrkrepierer in der Geschichte der noch jungen zweiten deutschen Republik. Erst mit den Frankfurter Auschwitz-Prozessen und stärker dann noch im Zusammenhang mit der Studentenrevolte Ende der 1960er Jahre sollte es zu neuen ernsthaften Bemühungen um gesellschaftliche Aufarbeitung kommen. 

Adenauers Ankündigung einer Beendigung der NS-Aufarbeitung, die er bereits in seiner ersten Regierungserklärung 1949 (!) vor dem Bundestag gab, dürfte auch und gerade aus heutiger Sicht von deutlich wichtigerer Bedeutung für das Fortleben autoritär-rechtsextremer, völkischer und nationalsozialistischer Gesinnungen und Haltungen in Deutschland gewesen sein als der Einzug der AfD in den Bundestag 2017, einschließlich aller geschichtsvergessenen und in ihrer Wortwahl geschmacklosen Äußerungen ihrer Politiker seither. 

Bemerkenswert sind die Worte, mit der Adenauer so früh der gesellschaftlichen Aufarbeitung der NS-Zeit eine klare Absage erteilte:

„Durch die Denazifizierung ist viel Unglück und viel Unheil angerichtet worden. (...) Im Übrigen dürfen wir nicht mehr zwei Klassen von Menschen in Deutschland unterscheiden, die politisch Einwandfreien und die politisch Nicht-Einwandfreien. Diese Unterscheidung muss baldigst verschwinden.“ (26)

Rasch wurden daraufhin die gesetzlichen Grundlagen geschaffen, um in den im Aufbau befindlichen bundesdeutschen Verwaltungsapparat über 50.000 NS-belastete Beamte wiedereinzugliedern, darunter auch viele, die zuvor dem Nazi-Unrechtsstaat als Mitglieder der Gestapo und der SS gedient hatten. Besonders im Bundesjustizministerium hatte ein Netzwerk aus Alt-Nazis unterhalb der ministeriellen Leitungsebene bis in die 1960er Jahre hinein das Sagen, mit großen, noch immer nicht vollständig aufgearbeiteten Auswirkungen auf die Gesetzgebung, durch die NS-Verbrecher in der BRD auf verschiedene Weisen vor Strafverfolgung geschützt wurden.  

Den ideologischen Hintergrund bildet dafür der Konservatismus, dem Adenauer, die CDU/CSU und andere politisch einflussreichen Kräfte anhingen, genauer gesagt das Elitedenken, das für diesen Konservatismus konstitutiv ist. Es erklärt, dass die Regierung lieber auf die alte Elite, auch wenn sie in weiten Teilen nationalsozialistisch belastet war, zurückgriff als ein neues, demokratisch-selbstbewusstes Beamtentum zu begründen und eine aus den verschiedenen Facetten des Widerstandes sich rekrutierende Führungsschicht aufzubauen. Denn die geeigneten Personen für diese Führungsschicht hätte man weitgehend nicht im eigenen Lager, sondern im Lager der politischen Gegner, bei Sozialdemokraten, Sozialisten, Kommunisten und Linksliberalen finden können. 

Fazit: Im Handumdrehen wurde der an das „Nie-Wieder!“– Versprechen an die zukünftigen Generationen geknüpfte, zumindest teilweise ernsthaft und aufrichtig angestrebte Neuanfang –verstanden als ein radikal zu vollziehender Bruch mit der faschistischen Vergangenheit – hintertrieben, entstellt, entkräftet und um seine Wirkung gebracht. Dabei spielte nicht zuletzt die schnell wieder angekurbelte Feindbildproduktion und Russophobie („alle Wege der Linken, Friedensfreunde, Anti-Militaristen und Neutralitätsbefürworter führen nach Moskau!“), eine wichtige Rolle.

Es ist daher kein Zufall, dass sie uns so verblüffend ähnlich auch heute wieder in Politik und Medien begegnet. Sie ist ein Herzstück der deutschen Nachkriegs-Lebenslüge namens „Vergangenheitsbewältigung“. Hier gilt einmal mehr der Satz, dass Untote bekanntlich länger leben.

Sie macht sich heute auch darin bemerkbar, dass die Tatsache, dass es sich bei dem Krieg gegen Russland nicht um einen Eroberungskrieg, sondern um einen Vernichtungsfeldzug gegen eine „minderwertige Rasse und Kultur“ handelte, im kollektiven Bewusstsein der Deutschen nicht verankert wurde. Sonst hätte der Hass auf die Russen und alles Russische gesellschaftlich nicht wieder hoffähig werden können.

---

DIE FRIEDENSTAUBE FLIEGT AUCH IN IHR POSTFACH!

Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt, vorerst für alle kostenfrei, wir starten gänzlich ohne Paywall. (Die Bezahlabos fangen erst zu laufen an, wenn ein Monetarisierungskonzept für die Inhalte steht). Sie wollen der Genossenschaft beitreten oder uns unterstützen? Mehr Infos hier oder am Ende des Textes.

---

Exkurs zum Niedergang der deutschen Sozialdemokratie

Im Ringen um den Weg, den die Bundesrepublik in den 1950er Jahren nehmen sollte, wurden damals Sozialdemokraten, die sich nicht bedingungslos der Bollwerks- und Frontstaaten-Ideologie des Kalten Kriegs unterwarfen, als „vaterlandslose Gesellen“ diffamiert. Die SPD tat sich immer schwer damit, der Demagogie der bürgerlichen Parteien etwas entgegenzusetzen, da Antikommunismus bei breiten Teilen der Bevölkerung, getreu der Devise „je primitiver, desto besser bzw. wirkungsvoller“, auch nach Hitler verfing. 

Heute schlägt die Sozialdemokratische Partei die Aufrüstungs- und Kriegstrommel lieber selber kräftig mit und diffamiert die Angehörigen der Friedensbewegung und Verfechter einer Détente mit Russland als „Putin-Freunde“ und „Russlandversteher“ oder gar, ins absurd Metaphysische gesteigert als “gefallene Engel aus der Hölle“ (Olaf Scholz).

Mit dem Friedensnobelpreisträger und NS-Widerstandskämpfer Willy Brandt an der Spitze fuhr die SPD ihren größten Wahlerfolg ein – die von ihm geführte erhielt in der Bundestagswahl 1972 45,8 Prozent. Außenpolitisch überzeugte sie mit „Wandel durch Annäherung“ und „Wir wollen ein Volk guter Nachbar sein“. Nun ist sie beim Führungspersonal bei einem farblosen Apparatschik und Waffenlobbyisten (27) namens Lars Klingbeil und 16,4 % der Wählerstimmen angekommen. Zumindest die ebenso blasse und ideenlose Saskia Esken, die bei vielen einzig und allein für ihre Diffamierung von Demonstranten gegen das Corona-Unrecht („Covidioten“) in Erinnerung bleiben wird, zieht aus ihrer Unbeliebtheit nun die Konsequenz und tritt ab.

Indem die SPD, in Anbetracht der Friedensinitiativen Trumps die Chance verstreichen lässt, sich selbst in ihrer Politik gegenüber Russland zu korrigieren, um doch noch auf den Pfad der Diplomatie zurückzukehren und zu verhindern, dass auch noch der letzte Rest sozialdemokratischer Substanz über Bord geworfen wird, setzt Sozen-Konkursbeschleuniger Klingbeil zusammen mit BlackRock-Millionär Merz auf den Scholzschen Zeitenwende-Wahnsinn von 100 Milliarden für die Rüstung lieber noch weitere 500 Milliarden Euro drauf. Er und der den Kommiss-Ton perfekt beherrschende Pistorius, mit seinen Einlassungen zum „russischen Diktatfrieden“, der, wenn man ihn denn schon unbedingt so nennen will, ja nicht zuletzt auf das Konto der diplomatischen Untätigkeit der deutschen Regierung geht, besiegeln durch das von der Schuldenbremse befreite, in puncto Kostspieligkeit nach oben offene Aufrüstungs- und Militarisierungsprogramm, unter das in Wirklichkeit auch ein großer Teil der geplanten Infrastrukturmaßnahmen subsummiert werden wird (28), das Schicksal der ältesten Partei Deutschlands. Wissen diese SPD-Politiker wirklich nicht, was sie tun, wenn sie für die Profite der Rüstungswirtschaft alles verraten und auf lange Sicht verspielen, wofür diese Partei außen- und sozialpolitisch einmal stand und wofür sie gewählt wurde?    

All das, was die SPD als Friedens- und Entspannungspartei einmal zur stärksten politischen Kraft gemacht hat, wird nun wie im Wahn von ihr verleugnet und mutwillig, geschichtsvergessen-revanchistisch zerstört. Und nicht nur das: Die SPD liefert den Rechten (nein, nicht der AfD, sondern den sonstigen Extremisten der Mitte!) den Grund, den neoliberal bereits entkernten Sozialstaat weiter – ab jetzt aber mit Bulldozern statt mit der Spitzhacke – zu zerstören. Sie nimmt dafür auch weitere, schwere Beschädigungen der Legitimität unserer ohnehin dahinsiechenden Demokratie in Kauf. Die Demokratie liegt nämlich seit Corona bei uns auf der Intensivstation und muss, u.a. durch regierungsfinanzierte „NGOs“ und staatlich organisierte Anti-AfD-Demonstrationen, künstlich beatmet werden!

Schließlich war die SPD zusammen mit der Merz-Union sogar bereit, einen kalten Putsch gegen die Integrität des Parlamentarismus und die elementaren Spielregeln der Demokratie durchzuführen. Mit diesem Putsch hat man im abgewählten 20. Bundestag noch schnell politisch äußerst weitreichende Grundgesetzänderungen durchgesetzt – und das gegen die neuen Mehrheiten des bereits gewählten 21. Bundestages! Die durch Bruch des Wahlversprechens ermöglichte Grundgesetzänderung, stellt einen besonders beschämenden Akt der Machtanmaßung, Wählerverhöhnung und Demokratiemissachtung dar. Und sie verfehlte ihre Wirkung nicht. Kurz darauf konnten die Demoskopen neue Rekordwerte für die AfD messen, die nun als stärkste Partei noch vor der CDU lag. Das Merz-Manöver dürfte im Übrigen dafür gesorgt haben, dass ihm nach der Wahl zum Bundeskanzler, die ja alles andere als glatt verlief, ein Makel anhängt, der so gravierend ist, dass er für den Rest seiner Amtszeit (hoffentlich) nicht mehr zu tilgen sein wird.

Das besonders Irre, das nicht nur den Fall der SPD beschreibt, ihr Versagen aber besonders plastisch hervorhebt, ist, dass es seit Beginn des Ukraine-Kriegs innerhalb der EU (mit Ausnahme Orbans) keine diplomatischen Initiativen gegeben hat, um mit Russland wieder ins Gespräch zu kommen. Im Rückblick wirken da selbst die Kalten Krieger vor und während der Ostpolitik von Willy Brandt wie Appeasement-Politiker. 

Stattdessen war wiederholt eine Bundesaußenministerin zu vernehmen, die offenbar nur sehr eingeschränkt dazu imstande ist, ihre sprachliche Performanz dem hohen Amt angemessen zu kontrollieren. Sie wollte öffentlich „Russland ruinieren“ und erklärte dem Land ein anderes Mal, vor dem Europarat, beiläufig den Krieg. Dass Baerbock, die in ihrer Amtszeit in fast jedes diplomatische Fettnäpfchen getreten ist, jetzt zur zweithöchsten UN-Chef-Diplomatin gewählt wurde, ist Realsatire pur!

Polemik als geistiger Notwehrakt 

Doch Halt! – Gerade merke ich, wie mich mein Hang zur Polemik fortzureißen beginnt!

Die Polemik ist ein hilfreiches (und noch nicht ganz verbotenes!) geistiges Notwehr-Mittel in Zeiten eines zunehmend aggressiv aufgeheizten gesellschaftlichen Klimas. Wie soll man nicht zum Polemiker und Satiriker angesichts des grassierenden Wahnsinns der Politik und ihrer vielen verrückt und absurd anmutenden Pathologien und Regressionen werden, hinter denen bei genauerem Hinsehen dann doch oft auch Kalkül vermutet werden muss? Wie sind sie anders als Vorgänge zu deuten, die zur Abwicklung der Demokratie führen sollen? Vorgänge, die durch eben jene Kräfte betrieben werden, die „unsere Demokratie“ inflationär lobpreisen und nicht müde werden, ihre „Werte“ in Sonntagsreden hervorzuheben. Gleichzeitig werden diese Werte aber durch Cancel Culture, Zensur und Denunziation massiv von ihnen angegriffen und von innen immer weiter ausgehöhlt.

Definitiv verhält es sich heute so, dass der Hang zur Polemik dem Umstand geschuldet wird, dass wir mittlerweile in schier unglaublichen Zeiten von Travestie-Ausgeburten  leben. Diese machen es uns immer schwerer, nicht ganz die Bodenhaftung zu verlieren. All die wahnwitzigen Phänomenen, die wie wildgewordene Säue tagein tagaus durch das globale Dorf der Massenmedien in Echtzeit** getrieben werden, sie gefährden das Restvertrauen in den gesunden Menschenerstand und schränken die Möglichkeiten stark ein, einen halbwegs stabilen, geerdeten, vernunftgeleiteten Realitätsbezug aufrechtzuerhalten.

Und doch soll hier nicht ein weiteres Mal in dieser Façon mit der Regierungspolitik abgerechnet werden. Auf der Suche nach den tieferen Gründen für diese negativen Entwicklungen, soll stattdessen im zeithistorischen Material an einigen neuralgischen Stellen genauer nachgesehen und an der Oberfläche gekratzt werden, um die blinden Flecken bundesrepublikanischer Selbstwahrnehmung sichtbar zu machen.

---

Bernd Schoepe, Jahrgang 1965,  Studium der Soziologie, Germanistik, Philosophie und Erziehungswissenschaften in Frankfurt/M. und Hamburg. Erstes und zweites Staatsexamen. Freier Autor, der zu bildungspolitischen, bildungssoziologischen- und bildungsphilosophischen Themen schreibt. Seit 2003 im Hamburger Schuldienst. Langjähriges GEW-Betriebsgruppen-Mitglied, ehem. Vertrauensmann, ehem. Mitglied der Hamburger Lehrerkammer. Hauptberuflich bin ich Politik- Deutsch- und Philosophielehrer an einer Hamburger Stadtteilschule. Kontakt: berndschoepe\@gmx.de

---

LASSEN SIE DER FRIEDENSTAUBE FLÜGEL WACHSEN!

In Kürze folgt eine Mail an alle Genossenschafter, danke für die Geduld!

Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt.

Schon jetzt können Sie uns unterstützen:

• Für 50 CHF/EURO bekommen Sie ein Jahresabo der Friedenstaube.
• Für 120 CHF/EURO bekommen Sie ein Jahresabo und ein T-Shirt/Hoodie mit der Friedenstaube.
• Für 500 CHF/EURO werden Sie Förderer und bekommen ein lebenslanges Abo sowie ein T-Shirt/Hoodie mit der Friedenstaube.
• Ab 1000 CHF werden Sie Genossenschafter der Friedenstaube mit Stimmrecht (und bekommen lebenslanges Abo, T-Shirt/Hoodie).

Für Einzahlungen in CHF (Betreff: Friedenstaube):

Für Einzahlungen in Euro:

Milosz Matuschek

IBAN DE 53710520500000814137

BYLADEM1TST

Sparkasse Traunstein-Trostberg

Betreff: Friedenstaube

Wenn Sie auf anderem Wege beitragen wollen, schreiben Sie die Friedenstaube an: friedenstaube@pareto.space

---

Sie sind noch nicht auf Nostr and wollen die volle Erfahrung machen (liken, kommentieren etc.)? Zappen können Sie den Autor auch ohne Nostr-Profil! Erstellen Sie sich einen Account auf Start. Weitere Onboarding-Leitfäden gibt es im Pareto-Wiki.

@ f683e870:557f5ef2

This is what has been achieved on a per-project basis since receiving the grant from Opensats.

npub.world

Together with nostr:npub1wf4pufsucer5va8g9p0rj5dnhvfeh6d8w0g6eayaep5dhps6rsgs43dgh9, I have been refining npub.world to deliver real-time, WoT-powered profile search. These refinements include:

• implementing new desings by nostr:npub1t3gd5yefglarhar4n6uh34uymvft4tgu8edk5465zzhtv4rrnd9sg7upxq

• moving to the new Vertex DVM standard

• improved URL and npub parsing

Vertex crawler

Due to the architectural mistakes I made when designing the first version, I have embarked on a full rewrite of the crawler. The new architecture is simpler, more modular and more performant, and I am confident that it will provide a stable foundation on which to expand the Vertex offering with additional functionalities and analytics.

The major differences with the old version are:

• the DB and RWS interfaces have been broken up and simplified into smaller ones, each defined by their own packages

• a simplified, more efficient algorithm for updating random walks

• use of a custom-built cache to speed up graph computations

• a worker pool pattern to speed up event archiving

These changes have reduced the LOC by more than half while improving performance by \~10x. Of independent interest is the new pipe package, which can also be used by other projects to crawl the Nostr network.

Vertex Relay and DVMs

The Vertex relay has been updated several times, and now supports four DVM services:

• Verify Reputation

• Recommend Follows

• Rank Profiles

• Search Profile

For each service, customers can choose the algorithm to use by specifing the sort option to use between:

• followerCount

• globalPagerank

• personalizedPagerank

More information can be found at https://vertexlab.io/.

Overall, the relay has processed more than 100,000 DVM requests, with the current daily rate standing at around 1,500.

rely

Unsatisfied with the khatru relay framework, I've decided to build my own called rely, with the goal of being simpler and more stable. I've not just scratched a personal hitch: I've used khatru for several months now (the Vertex relay is still using it) and I encountered several issues, some of which I've solved with PRs to the underlying go-nostr library.

The main differences between khatru and rely:

• rely is much simpler, both architecturally and in terms of LOC (less than half)

• rely has a solid testing approach, where a random yet reproducible high traffic hits the relay to see what breaks

• rely implements a worker pool pattern where a configurable number of goroutines process the incoming requests from clients. On the other hand, khatru process them in the HandleWebsocket goroutine, which is spawned every time a client connects. This is dangerous in my opinion because if too many clients connect, memory usage would spike and the relay could potentially crash.

New DVM spec

I helped to draft this new proposal to update the DVM spec, which is one of the most controversial NIPs. While almost everyone agrees that it needs to change, there is no consensus on how to move forward. I believe our proposal is a sensible approach that defines discovery, usage, and error patterns while leaving flexibility for specific DVM kinds.

Looking at the future

Next I am going to move the Vertex relay to the rely framework and to the new crawler package. I expect that this will increase the performance and will make things more solid and more simple. After all of this refactoring and simplification, it will be time to finally add features to the Vertex offering. I have an ambitious roadmap consisting of:

• accepting ecash for DVM requests

• designing client-side validation schemes for the DVM responses

• expanding the pagerank algorithm to make use of mutes and reports

• adding an WoT impersonator check to npub.world

• adding a nip05 check to npub.world

• make a relystore package with some plug&play databases for rely.

@ 2e8970de:63345c7a

Iran raising a red flag in war times? That's a bit. Sabrina Carpenters "persona" - she's doing a bit. In the pope election the cardinals locking themselves in a conclave and the white smoke thing - it's a bit. Everything is only a bit.

Maybe I'm just old and interpret too much into youth slang but - that's actually a HUGE cultural shift if young people think of nothing as authentic anymore. What even is authentic?

https://stacker.news/items/1006348

@ 97c70a44:ad98e322

When developing on nostr, normally it's enough to read the NIP related to a given feature you want to build to know what has to be done. But there are some aspects of nostr development that aren't so straightforward because they depend less on specific data formats than on how different concepts are combined.

An example of this is how for a while it was considered best practice to re-publish notes when replying to them. This practice emerged before the outbox model gained traction, and was a hacky way of attempting to ensure relays had the full context required for a given note. Over time though, pubkey hints emerged as a better way to ensure other clients could find required context.

Another one of these things is "relay-based groups", or as I prefer to call it "relays-as-groups" (RAG). Such a thing doesn't really exist - there's no spec for it (although some aspects of the concept are included in NIP 29), but at the same time there are two concrete implementations (Flotilla and Chachi) which leverage several different NIPs in order to create a cohesive system for groups on nostr.

This composability is one of the neat qualities of nostr. Not only would it be unhelpful to specify how different parts of the protocol should work together, it would be impossible because of the number of possible combinations possible just from applying a little bit of common sense to the NIPs repo. No one said it was ok to put t tags on a kind 0. But no one's stopping you! And the semantics are basically self-evident if you understand its component parts.

So, instead of writing a NIP that sets relay-based groups in stone, I'm writing this guide in order to document how I've combined different parts of the nostr protocol to create a compelling architecture for groups.

Relays

Relays already have a canonical identity, which is the relay's url. Events posted to a relay can be thought of as "posted to that group". This means that every relay is already a group. All nostr notes have already been posted to one or more groups.

One common objection to this structure is that identifying a group with a relay means that groups are dependent on the relay to continue hosting the group. In normal broadcast nostr (which forms organic permissionless groups based on user-centric social clustering), this is a very bad thing, because hosts are orthogonal to group identity. Communities are completely different. Communities actually need someone to enforce community boundaries, implement moderation, etc. Reliance on a host is a feature, not a bug (in contrast to NIP 29 groups, which tend to co-locate many groups on a single host, relays-as-groups tends to encourage one group, one host).

This doesn't mean that federation, mirrors, and migration can't be accomplished. In a sense, leaving this on the social layer is a good thing, because it adds friction to the dissolution/forking of a group. But the door is wide open to protocol additions to support those use cases for relay-based groups. One possible approach would be to follow this draft PR which specifies a "federation" event relays could publish on their own behalf.

Relay keys

This draft PR to NIP 11 specifies a self field which represents the relay's identity. Using this, relays can publish events on their own behalf. Currently, the pubkey field sort of does the same thing, but is overloaded as a contact field for the owner of the relay.

AUTH

Relays can control access using NIP 42 AUTH. There are any number of modes a relay can operate in:

1. No auth, fully public - anyone can read/write to the group.
2. Relays may enforce broad or granular access controls with AUTH.

Relays may deny EVENTs or REQs depending on user identity. Messages returned in AUTH, CLOSED, or OK messages should be human readable. It's crucial that clients show these error messages to users. Here's how Flotilla handles failed AUTH and denied event publishing:

LIMITS, PROBE, or some other reflection scheme could also be used in theory to help clients adapt their interface depending on user abilities and relay policy.

1. AUTH with implicit access controls.

In this mode, relays may exclude matching events from REQs if the user does not have permission to view them. This can be useful for multi-use relays that host hidden rooms. This mode should be used with caution, because it can result in confusion for the end user.

See Frith for a relay implementation that supports some of these auth policies.

Invite codes

If a user doesn't have access to a relay, they can request access using this draft NIP. This is true whether access has been explicitly or implicitly denied (although users will have to know that they should use an invite code to request access).

The above referenced NIP also contains a mechanism for users to request an invite code that they can share with other users.

The policy for these invite codes is entirely up to the relay. They may be single-use, multi-use, or require additional verification. Additional requirements can be communicated to the user in the OK message, for example directions to visit an external URL to register.

See Frith for a relay implementation that supports invite codes.

Content

Any kind of event can be published to a relay being treated as a group, unless rejected by the relay implementation. In particular, NIP 7D was added to support basic threads, and NIP C7 for chat messages.

Since which relay an event came from determines which group it was posted to, clients need to have a mechanism for keeping track of which relay they received an event from, and should not broadcast events to other relays (unless intending to cross-post the content).

Rooms

Rooms follow NIP 29. I wish NIP 29 wasn't called "relay based groups", which is very confusing when talking about "relays as groups". It's much better to think of them as sub-groups, or as Flotilla calls them, "rooms".

EDIT: Flotilla has migrated to exclusively use "managed rooms" — i.e., fully NIP 29 compliant rooms. Relays without NIP 29 support can still support chat, but all messages will be presented as sent to a single room. I've removed references to unmanaged rooms in what follows.

~~Rooms have two modes - managed and unmanaged. Managed~~ rooms follow all the rules laid out in NIP 29 about metadata published by the relay and user membership. In either case, rooms are represented by a random room id, and are posted to by including the id in an event's h tag. ~~This allows rooms to switch between managed and unmanaged modes without losing any content.~~

Managed room names come from kind 39000 room meta events, ~~but unmanaged rooms don't have these. Instead, room names should come from members' NIP 51 kind 10009 membership lists. Tags on these lists should look like this: ["group", "groupid", "wss://group.example.com", "Cat lovers"]. If no name can be found for the room (i.e., there aren't any members), the room should be ignored by clients.~~

Rooms present a difficulty for publishing to the relay as a whole, since content with an h tag can't be excluded from requests. ~~Currently, relay-wide posts are h-tagged with _ which works for "group" clients, but not more generally. I'm not sure how to solve this other than to ask relays to support negative filters.~~ I have ideas on how to solve this in future iterations of relay-based groups, for example using virtual relays or just a better rooms spec.

Cross-posting

The simplest way to cross-post content from one group (or room) to another, is to quote the original note in whatever event kind is appropriate. For example, a blog post might be quoted in a kind 9 to be cross-posted to chat, or in a kind 11 to be cross-posted to a thread. kind 16 reposts can be used the same way if the reader's client renders reposts.

Posting the original event to multiple relays-as-groups is trivial, since all you have to do is send the event to the relay. Posting to multiple rooms simultaneously by appending multiple h tags is however not recommended, since group relays/clients are incentivised to protect themselves from spam by rejecting events with multiple h tags (similar to how events with multiple t tags are sometimes rejected).

Privacy

Currently, it's recommended to include a NIP 70 - tag on content posted to relays-as-groups to discourage replication of relay-specific content across the network.

Another slightly stronger approach would be for group relays to strip signatures in order to make events invalid (or at least deniable). For this approach to work, users would have to be able to signal that they trust relays to be honest. We could also use ZkSNARKS to validate signatures in bulk.

In any case, group posts should not be considered "private" in the same way E2EE groups might be. Relays-as-groups should be considered a good fit for low-stakes groups with many members (since trust deteriorates quickly as more people get involved).

Membership

There is currently no canonical member list published by relays (except for NIP 29 managed rooms). Instead, users keep track of their own relay and room memberships using kind 10009 lists. Relay-level memberships are represented by an r tag containing the relay url, and room-level memberships are represented using a group tag.

Users can choose to advertise their membership in a RAG by using unencrypted tags, or they may keep their membership private by using encrypted tags. Advertised memberships are useful for helping people find groups based on their social graph:

User memberships should not be trusted, since they can be published unilaterally by anyone, regardless of actual access, so it's better to think of them as "bookmarked groups" or "favorites". Possible improvements in this area would be the ability to provide proof of access:

• Relays could publish member lists (although this would sacrifice member privacy)
• Relays could support a new command that allows querying a particular member's access status
• Relays could provide a proof to the member that they could then choose to publish or not

Moderation

There are two parts to moderation: reporting and taking action based on these reports.

Reporting is already covered by NIP 56. Clients should be careful about encouraging users to post reports for illegal content under their own identity, since that can itself be illegal. Relays also should not serve reports to users, since that can be used to find rather than address objectionable content.

Reports are only one mechanism for flagging objectionable content. Relay operators and administrators can use whatever heuristics they like to identify and address objectionable content. This might be via automated policies that auto-ban based on reports from high-reputation people, a client that implements NIP 86 relay management API, or by some other admin interface.

There's currently no way for moderators of a given relay to be advertised, or for a moderator's client to know that the user is a moderator (so that they can enable UI elements for in-app moderation). This could be addressed via NIP 11, LIMITS, or some other mechanism in the future.

General best practices

In general, it's very important when developing a client to assume that the relay has no special support for any of the above features, instead treating all of this stuff as progressive enhancement.

For example, if a user enters an invite code, go ahead and send it to the relay using a kind 28934 event. If it's rejected, you know that it didn't work. But if it's accepted, you don't know that it worked - you only know that the relay allowed the user to publish that event. This is helpful, becaues it may imply that the user does indeed have access to the relay. But additional probing may be needed, and reliance on error messages down the road when something else fails unexpectedly is indispensable.

This paradigm may drive some engineers nuts, because it's basically equivalent to coding your clients to reverse-engineer relay support for every feature you want to use. But this is true of nostr as a whole - anyone can put whatever weird stuff in an event and sign it. Clients have to be extremely compliant with Postell's law - doing their absolute best to accept whatever weird data or behavior shows up and handle failure in any situation. Sure, it's annoying, but it's the cost of permissionless development. What it gets us is a completely open-ended protocol, in which anything can be built, and in which every solution is tested by the market.

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

test

@ 97c70a44:ad98e322

Vibe coding is taking the nostr developer community by storm. While it's all very exciting and interesting, I think it's important to pump the brakes a little - not in order to stop the vehicle, but to try to keep us from flying off the road as we approach this curve.

In this note Pablo is subtweeting something I said to him recently (although I'm sure he's heard it from other quarters as well):

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp75cf0tahv5z7plpdeaws7ex52nmnwgtwfr2g3m37r844evqrr6jqy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qghwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46z7qg6waehxw309ac8junpd45kgtnxd9shg6npvchxxmmd9uqzq0z48d4ttzzkupswnkyt5a2xfkhxl3hyavnxjujwn5k2k529aearwtecp4

There is a naive, curmudgeonly case for simply "not doing AI". I think the intuition is a good one, but the subject is obviously more complicated - not doing it, either on an individual or a collective level, is just not an option. I recently read Tools for Conviviality by Ivan Illich, which I think can help us here. For Illich, the best kind of tool is one which serves "politically interrelated individuals rather than managers".

This is obviously a core value for bitcoiners. And I think the talks given at the Oslo Freedom Forum this year present a compelling case for adoption of LLMs for the purposes of 1. using them for good, and 2. developing them further so that they don't get captured by corporations and governments. Illich calls both the telephone and print "almost ideally convivial". I would add the internet, cryptography, and LLMs to this list, because each one allows individuals to work cooperatively within communities to embody their values in their work.

But this is only half the story. Illich also points out how "the manipulative nature of institutions... have put these ideally convivial tools at the service of more [managerial dominance]."

Preventing the subversion and capture of our tools is not just a matter of who uses what, and for which ends. It also requires an awareness of the environment that the use of the tool (whether for virtuous or vicious ends) creates, which in turn forms the abilities, values, and desires of those who inhabit the environment.

The natural tendency of LLMs is to foster ignorance, dependence, and detachment from reality. This is not the fault of the tool itself, but that of humans' tendency to trade liberty for convenience. Nevertheless, the inherent values of a given tool naturally gives rise to an environment through use: the tool changes the world that the tool user lives in. This in turn indoctrinates the user into the internal logic of the tool, shaping their thinking, blinding them to the tool's influence, and neutering their ability to work in ways not endorsed by the structure of the tool-defined environment.

The result of this is that people are formed by their tools, becoming their slaves. We often talk about LLM misalignment, but the same is true of humans. Unreflective use of a tool creates people who are misaligned with their own interests. This is what I mean when I say that AI use is anti-human. I mean it in the same way that all unreflective tool use is anti-human. See Wendell Berry for an evaluation of industrial agriculture along the same lines.

What I'm not claiming is that a minority of high agency individuals can't use the technology for virtuous ends. In fact, I think that is an essential part of the solution. Tool use can be good. But tools that bring their users into dependence on complex industry and catechize their users into a particular system should be approached with extra caution. The plow was a convivial tool, and so were early tractors. Self-driving John Deere monstrosities are a straightforward extension of the earlier form of the technology, but are self-evidently an instrument of debt slavery, chemical dependency, industrial centralization, and degradation of the land. This over-extension of a given tool can occur regardless of the intentions of the user. As Illich says:

There is a form of malfunction in which growth does not yet tend toward the destruction of life, yet renders a tool antagonistic to its specific aims. Tools, in other words, have an optimal, a tolerable, and a negative range.

The initial form of a tool is almost always beneficial, because tools are made by humans for human ends. But as the scale of the tool grows, its logic gets more widely and forcibly applied. The solution to the anti-human tendencies of any technology is an understanding of scale. To prevent the overrun of the internal logic of a given tool and its creation of an environment hostile to human flourishing, we need to impose limits on scale.

Tools that require time periods or spaces or energies much beyond the order of corresponding natural scales are dysfunctional.

My problem with LLMs is:

• Not their imitation of human idioms, but their subversion of them and the resulting adoption of robotic idioms by humans
• Not the access they grant to information, but their ability to obscure accurate or relevant information
• Not their elimination of menial work, but its increase (Bullshit Jobs)
• Not their ability to take away jobs, but their ability to take away the meaning found in good work
• Not their ability to confer power to the user, but their ability to confer power to their owner which can be used to exploit the user
• Not their ability to solve problems mechanistically, but the extension of their mechanistic value system to human life
• Not their explicit promise of productivity, but the environment they implicitly create in which productivity depends on their use
• Not the conversations they are able to participate in, but the relationships they displace

All of these dysfunctions come from the over-application of the technology in evaluating and executing the fundamentally human task of living. AI work is the same kind of thing as an AI girlfriend, because work is not only for the creation of value (although that's an essential part of it), but also for the exercise of human agency in the world. In other words, tools must be tools, not masters. This is a problem of scale - when tool use is extended beyond its appropriate domain, it becomes what Illich calls a "radical monopoly" (the domination of a single paradigm over all of human life).

So the important question when dealing with any emergent technology becomes: how can we set limits such that the use of the technology is naturally confined to its appropriate scale?

Here are some considerations:

• Teach people how to use the technology well (e.g. cite sources when doing research, use context files instead of fighting the prompt, know when to ask questions rather than generate code)
• Create and use open source and self-hosted models and tools (MCP, stacks, tenex). Refuse to pay for closed or third-party hosted models and tools.
• Recognize the dependencies of the tool itself, for example GPU availability, and diversify the industrial sources to reduce fragility and dependence.
• Create models with built-in limits. The big companies have attempted this (resulting in Japanese Vikings), but the best-case effect is a top-down imposition of corporate values onto individuals. But the idea isn't inherently bad - a coding model that refuses to generate code in response to vague prompts, or which asks clarifying questions is an example. Or a home assistant that recognized childrens' voices and refuses to interact.
• Divert the productivity gains to human enrichment. Without mundane work to do, novice lawyers, coders, and accountants don't have an opportunity to hone their skills. But their learning could be subsidized by the bots in order to bring them up to a level that continues to be useful.
• Don't become a slave to the bots. Know when not to use it. Talk to real people. Write real code, poetry, novels, scripts. Do your own research. Learn by experience. Make your own stuff. Take a break from reviewing code to write some. Be independent, impossible to control. Don't underestimate the value to your soul of good work.
• Resist both monopoly and "radical monopoly". Both naturally collapse over time, but by cultivating an appreciation of the goodness of hand-crafted goods, non-synthetic entertainment, embodied relationship, and a balance between mobility and place, we can relegate new, threatening technologies to their correct role in society.

I think in all of this is implicit the idea of technological determinism, that productivity is power, and if you don't adapt you die. I reject this as an artifact of darwinism and materialism. The world is far more complex and full of grace than we think.

The idea that productivity creates wealth is, as we all know, bunk. GDP continues to go up, but ungrounded metrics don't reflect anything about the reality of human flourishing. We have to return to a qualitative understanding of life as whole, and contextualize quantitative tools and metrics within that framework.

Finally, don't believe the hype. Even if AI delivers everything it promises, conservatism in changing our ways of life will decelerate the rate of change society is subjected to and allow time for reflection and proper use of the tool. Curmudgeons are as valuable as technologists. There will be no jobspocalypse if there is sufficient political will to value human good over mere productivity. It's ok to pump the breaks.

@ b83a28b7:35919450

This is the second installment in the series "The Net Appears" where I document my journey from being in a well-established and well-paying fiat job into the unknown world of independent work in freedom tech. Will I end up finding something truly inspiring and fulfilling, while being able to support my family? We'll find out over the course of the next few weeks.

---

So this happened a couple of days ago:

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpwp69zm7fewjp0vkp306adnzt7249ytxhz7mq3w5yc629u6er9zsqqsd6khjdmgmme3xrnzj5xn5tfwer5pjchh20mcp4lfemurfsj3v4wgsjw0uj

Let's back up a bit, because in the first installment of this series, I was still in limbo.

If you’d told me three weeks ago that corporate martyrdom could be negotiated like a farmers-market cantaloupe, I’d have laughed you off the Microsoft Teams grid. Yet there I was, video-boxed opposite my Senior Vice Priest of PowerPoint, calmly re-petitioning for a graceful guillotine.

His verdict: the guillotine is for optics only, and apparently it clashes with the brand guidelines. Laying off The AI Guy would look like we’d just unplugged the future for spare parts. Impossible. But the man did extend an olive branch the size of a bonsai: “Resign, and we’ll cash out your vacation - thirty glorious days of fiat.”

Not the three-month severance I’d fantasized about, but enough to buy time, dignity, and a respectable stack of Claude API credits. I signed before he could replace goodwill with an NDA.

And then I chose July 4 as my last day. Cue bald eagles, Sousa marches, and a slow-motion shot of me frisbee-flinging my employee badge into an erupting grill. Independence from fiat, by literal fireworks.

---

Space Rush

The moment rumors of my exit hit Teams, meeting invites vanished like socks in a hotel dryer. I’ve used the liberated hours to launch A Muse Stochastic, my audio-visual fever dream where generative melodies court glitch-poetry and occasionally elope with Gemini Veo video frames. The first episode is live, pulsing somewhere between synaptic Vivaldi and quantum origami. So far it has six listeners and one confused Australian-shepherd (my most honest critic).

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpwp69zm7fewjp0vkp306adnzt7249ytxhz7mq3w5yc629u6er9zsqy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq3zamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wwa5kuef0qqsvhtdltg2k3guhmshgmgt3nc9ejy0ct96t7udm04r5mupplcmdtesppmn7x

Meanwhile the playwright in me, neglected for months beneath sprint plannings and quarterly road-maps, finally crawled into the light. “Waiting for Satoshi,” first conceived on a warm Prague evening exactly one year ago ( nostr:nprofile1qy0hwumn8ghj7en0deehgu3dw3jhxapwdah8yetwv3jhytnrdakj7qgcwaehxw309a5hxmrpdejzumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcqyzaz7w2gxdjcga0fz6qt3x8ehc83mpgpvmr2swwmuzzdqfn26m3q54mhg79 can attest to this), now wears its final coat of dialogue. Tomorrow it debuts on GitHub - Creative Commons, open-source, fork-and-prosper - perhaps the inaugural play to invite pull requests for stage directions. If anyone wishes to add a tap-dancing Lightning node, be my guest.

---

Prague on the Horizon

Next week I return to BTC Prague, where ghosts of last year’s epiphany still linger near the pastry stand. This time I’m lugging camera gear, not corporate slide decks. Episode Two of Finding Home will be filmed there, featuring a wanderer whose bitcoined life map reads like Odysseus riding a Lightning invoice.

Perhaps my only conference of the year, I'm looking forward to catching up with friends old and new, and catch a whiff of that infectious bitcoin hopium.

---

Micro-lessons from Week Three

1. Severance is a mindset. One month of paid vacation feels oddly richer than three months shackled to uncertainty.

2. Symbolism scales. Pick an Independence Day, any Independence Day, and watch the universe queue fireworks.

3. Creative backlogs age like fine kimchi. Leave an idea in brine for a year and it returns with extra tang.

4. Open source = open veins. Releasing art into the commons is terrifying until you remember blood circulates best when it moves.

5. Microsoft Teams silence is golden (parachute). Each canceled stand-up funds roughly eight bars of experimental synth.

---

Gazing Forward

I still don’t know how mortgage, car payments, and teenage-soccer-tour fees will reconcile with my bank balance come August. Yet the dread that once clung to my ribcage has dissolved, replaced by a jittery anticipation - like the hush before a stadium crowd erupts. Every unknown now feels less like a void and more like a blank slide awaiting wild, irreverent doodles.

Next dispatch will likely come with reflections from Prague. The last two years, I was moved to unexpected tears on the final day, marveling at the sheer profundity of the human experience of the week past. Surely, that can't repeat for a third year in a row?

Until then, may your own nets appear exactly when logic insists they can’t - and may they be woven from liberated vacation days and the audible crackle of celebratory fireworks.

@ 32e18276:5c68e245

6 years ago I created some tools for working with peter todd's opentimestamps proof format. You can do some fun things like create plaintext and mini ots proofs. This short post is just a demo of what these tools do and how to use them.

What is OTS?

OpenTimestamps is a protocol for stamping information into bitcoin in a minimal way. It uses OP_RETURN outputs so that it has minimal impact on chain, and potentially millions of documents are stamped all at once with a merkle tree construction.

Examples

Here's the proof of the ots.c source file getting stamped into the ots calendar merkle tree. We're simply printing the ots proof file here with otsprint:

``` $ ./otsprint ots.c.ots

version 1 file_hash sha256 f76f0795ff37a24e566cd77d1996b64fab9c871a5928ab9389dfc3a128ec8296 append 2e9943d3833768bdb9a591f1d2735804 sha256 | --> append 2d82e7414811ecbf | sha256 | append a69d4f93e3e0f6c9b8321ce2cdd90decd34d260ea3f8b55e83d157ad398b7843 | sha256 | append ac0b5896401478eb6d88a408ec08b33fd303b574fb09b503f1ac1255b432d304 | sha256 | append 8aa9fd0245664c23d31d344243b4e8b0 | sha256 | prepend 414db5a1cd3a3e6668bf2dca9007e7c0fc5aa6dc71a2eab3afb51425c3acc472 | sha256 | append 5355b15d88d4dece45cddb7913f2c83d41e641e8c1d939dac4323671a4f8e197 | sha256 | append a2babd907ca513ab561ce3860e64a26b7df5de117f1f230bc8f1a248836f0c25 | sha256 | prepend 683f072f | append 2a4cdf9e9e04f2fd | attestation calendar https://alice.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org | --> append 7c8764fcaba5ed5d | sha256 | prepend f7e1ada392247d3f3116a97d73fcf4c0994b5c22fff824736db46cd577b97151 | sha256 | append 3c43ac41e0281f1dbcd7e713eb1ffaec48c5e05af404bca2166cdc51966a921c | sha256 | append 07b18bd7f4a5dc72326416aa3c8628ca80c8d95d7b1a82202b90bc824974da13 | sha256 | append b4d641ab029e7d900e92261c2342c9c9 | sha256 | append 4968b89b02b534f33dc26882862d25cca8f0fa76be5b9d3a3b5e2d77690e022b | sha256 | append 48c54e30b3a9ec0e6339b88ed9d04b9b1065838596a4ec778cbfc0dfc0f8c781 | sha256 | prepend 683f072f | append 8b2b4beda36c18dc | attestation calendar https://bob.btc.calendar.opentimestamps.org | --> append baa878b42ef3e0d45b324cc3a39a247a | sha256 | prepend 4fb1bc663cd641ad18e5c73fb618de1ae3d28fb5c3c224b7f9888fd52feb09ec | sha256 | append 731329278830c9725497d70e9f5a02e4b2d9c73ff73560beb3a896a2f180fdbf | sha256 | append 689024a9d57ad5daad669f001316dd0fc690ac4520410f97a349b05a3f5d69cb | sha256 | append 69d42dcb650bb2a690f850c3f6e14e46c2b0831361bac9ec454818264b9102fd | sha256 | prepend 683f072f | append bab471ba32acd9c3 | attestation calendar https://btc.calendar.catallaxy.com append c3ccce274e2f9edfa354ec105cb1a749 sha256 append 6297b54e3ce4ba71ecb06bd5632fd8cbd50fe6427b6bfc53a0e462348cc48bab sha256 append c28f03545a2948bd0d8102c887241aff5d4f6cf1e0b16dfd8787bf45ca2ab93d sha256 prepend 683f072f append 7f3259e285891c8e attestation calendar https://finney.calendar.eternitywall.com ```

The tool can create a minimal version of the proofs:

``` $ ./otsmini ots.c.ots | ./otsmini -d | ./otsprint

version 1 file_hash sha256 f76f0795ff37a24e566cd77d1996b64fab9c871a5928ab9389dfc3a128ec8296 append 2e9943d3833768bdb9a591f1d2735804 sha256 append c3ccce274e2f9edfa354ec105cb1a749 sha256 append 6297b54e3ce4ba71ecb06bd5632fd8cbd50fe6427b6bfc53a0e462348cc48bab sha256 append c28f03545a2948bd0d8102c887241aff5d4f6cf1e0b16dfd8787bf45ca2ab93d sha256 prepend 683f072f append 7f3259e285891c8e attestation calendar https://finney.calendar.eternitywall.com ```

which can be shared on social media as a string:

5s1L3tTWoTfUDhB1MPLXE1rnajwUdUnt8pfjZfY1UWVWpWu5YhW3PGCWWoXwWBRJ16B8182kQgxnKyiJtGQgRoFNbDfBss19seDnco5sF9WrBt8jQW7BVVmTB5mmAPa8ryb5929w4xEm1aE7S3SGMFr9rUgkNNzhMg4VK6vZmNqDGYvvZxBtwDMs2PRJk7y6wL6aJmq6yoaWPvuxaik4qMp76ApXEufP6RnWdapqGGsKy7TNE6ZzWWz2VXbaEXGwgjrxqF8bMstZMdGo2VzpVuE

you can even do things like gpg-style plaintext proofs:

``` $ ./otsclear -e CONTRIBUTING.ots -----BEGIN OPENTIMESTAMPS MESSAGE-----

Email patches to William Casarin jb55@jb55.com

-----BEGIN OPENTIMESTAMPS PROOF-----

AE9wZW5UaW1lc3RhbXBzAABQcm9vZgC/ieLohOiSlAEILXj4GSagG6fRNnR+CHj9e/+Mdkp0w1us gV/5dmlX2NrwEDlcBMmQ723mI9sY9ALUlXoI//AQRXlCd716J60FudR+C78fkAjwIDnONJrj1udi NDxQQ8UJiS4ZWfprUxbvaIoBs4G+4u6kCPEEaD8Ft/AIeS/skaOtQRoAg9/jDS75DI4pKGh0dHBz Oi8vZmlubmV5LmNhbGVuZGFyLmV0ZXJuaXR5d2FsbC5jb23/8AhMLZVzYZMYqwjwEPKWanBNPZVm kqsAYV3LBbkI8CCfIVveDh/S8ykOH1NC6BKTerHoPojvj1OmjB2LYvdUbgjxBGg/BbbwCGoo3fi1 A7rjAIPf4w0u+QyOLi1odHRwczovL2FsaWNlLmJ0Yy5jYWxlbmRhci5vcGVudGltZXN0YW1wcy5v cmf/8Aik+VP+n3FhCwjwELfTdHAfYQNa49I3CYycFbkI8QRoPwW28AgCLn93967lIQCD3+MNLvkM jiwraHR0cHM6Ly9ib2IuYnRjLmNhbGVuZGFyLm9wZW50aW1lc3RhbXBzLm9yZ/AQ3bEwg7mjQyKR PykGgiJewAjwID5Q68dY4m+XogwTJx72ecQEe5lheCO1RnlcJSTFokyRCPEEaD8Ft/AIw1WWPe++ 8N4Ag9/jDS75DI4jImh0dHBzOi8vYnRjLmNhbGVuZGFyLmNhdGFsbGF4eS5jb20= -----END OPENTIMESTAMPS PROOF-----

$ ./otsclear -v <<<proof_string... # verify the proof string ```

I've never really shared these tools before, I just remembered about it today. Enjoy!

Try it out: https://github.com/jb55/ots-tools

@ 5188521b:008eb518

Elysium

Part I: The Failed Harvest

First, the quiet came. Each day, the markets grew quieter, the people hungrier. A farmer stared at wilted crops, dread settling in his heart. In a kingdom once resplendent with markets and sky-reaching monuments, it was the first failed harvest that marked the end of affluence and the beginning of collapse.

By the second year, market traders stood before empty stalls, goods long gone, rotten, or ruined. Jobless men prowled, foraging the streets for vermin and meager scraps of sustenance. Young women offered their time for bread, their eyes hollow in the act. Widows, too, entered strangers’ homes, bartering themselves for their children’s next meal. Orphans, gaunt and brittle, drew meaningless shapes in the dust, their laughter a forgotten memory.

Rumors surged like wind through dry grass. Scapegoats were blamed; superstitions gripped the masses. By the third year, it was known to the people and the king alike, there would be no more monuments erected, only tombstones. The king called the council, heavy with despair. In a room filled with tension, ministers and knights sat around a table.

Before them stood the realm’s wisest farmer, a man worn from years of labor, hunger, and loss. His voice echoed the deep hunger that gripped the kingdom. “Your Majesty, the land is weary. It cries for respite.” His words hung heavy in the room, laying bare the reality of their fate.

Part II: The Devil’s Pact

In the dimly lit chamber, a palpable tension filled the air. The alchemist, servant to the king and master of arcane arts, stepped into the flickering candlelight. He held an aged book, its scent mingling with the murk of looming spells. With a voice both smooth and haunting, he shattered the quiet, his words a ripple through stone walls.

“Sire, alchemy is our last refuge. We can harvest time to feed the earth,” he began, revealing a parchment inked with cryptic circles and lines. “Each citizen, willingly or not, will spare a mere whisper of their years. An unnoticeable offering. With careful alchemy, we can replenish our lands and fortify your reign with the alms of myriad souls.” Leaning closer, he whispered the words that would redefine their civilization: a devil’s proposal intended for the king but felt by all. “Consider, my lord, a reign without end, each year stretched beyond nature’s limits, a kingdom fed by the borrowed time of its people. No more famine. No more want.”

The court waited, their faces etched with fear and desperate hope, ready to tread any path that led away from the abyss of famine.

For a moment, the king was a statue, his face a veil behind which storms brewed. Finally, exhaling a breath heavy with fate, he spoke. “We’ve endured enough hardship. We shall seize a future that knows no famine.”

The air thickened as the alchemist retreated with a solemn nod, the weight of the chosen path settling in.

He reopened his tome and voiced the incantation. Arcane syllables filled the room, weaving a desperate gambit to salvage their decaying kingdom. Thus, in the dark hours of night, they sealed a new covenant that would reverberate through generations.

Part III: Vines and Moss

In the decades that followed the alchemist’s rites, the kingdom thrived like spring after a bitter winter. Fields were lush year-round, erasing hunger and the memories of famine. Marketplaces bustled, no longer a graveyard of commerce but a carnival of exotic goods from every corner of the world. The air seemed perfumed with prosperity — healthy river fish, basilisk meats, and spices from faraway lands. A century rolled by. The king, unaging, stretched his influence over land and sea, turning his realm into an empire. Statues weathered, and languages evolved, but the king abided.

Yet, a toll was exacted. Years stolen from the people, a time tax woven into the fabric of life. The spell fed both earth and crown, cloaking decay with a veneer of wealth. The young wore the faces of old men, their eyes wise beyond their years. Every heartbeat was a sacrifice, a quiet tax to feed the castles of power.

Then came the year when the land rebelled. Coaxed by the spell, the soil had given until it couldn’t, its silent plea for rest ignored. The land remembered stolen seasons, now determined to settle old scores. Crops withered; rivers soured. Beasts waned, their numbers thinning. The kingdom, starved of Earth’s gifts, unraveled — not from human revolt, but from the silent insurrection of the land that once fed them.

With hunger as the harbinger, society fractured. Chaos and mass confusion swallowed the land, a virulent blight not even alchemy could stem. Witch hunts raged for a merciless century, fire consuming flesh and innocence. Men’s strength wilted, armies disbanded. Women, walking in the agonizing footsteps of famine-haunted foremothers, bartered touch for bread.

Monuments lay buried under vines and moss. Fertile lands turned barren. Schools emptied, their echoing halls abandoned, and children torn from learning, were sent to farm dying lands. Art withered. Painters swapped colors for shades of gray, and soon vanished altogether. Teachers and engineers were supplanted by an ever-growing class of soil-bound serfs.

Desperate, the eternal king sought another spell. He asked the people not for mere years but decades. The alchemist obliged, crafting another spell from dark incantations. Yet the ravaged earth, too spent to yield, exacted a monstrous price: lifetimes for crumbs of bread. People, skeletal, on the verge of vanishing, offered their very existence. A silence settled, a collective sacrifice borne not in rebellion, but in surrender.

Part IV: Clara The Torchbearer

In the land between sleep and waking, Clara was a child again, standing at the threshold of a room aglow with amber light. Her mother ground herbs, the wooden table before her strewn with books, vials, and leaves. “These aren’t just leaves and liquids,” her mother said. “They’re doors to the gardens of your mind.” Her words sank into Clara like stones into deep water.

She woke to a gusting wind. Her dream dissolved like morning mist. The sun broke over the kingdom, time’s toll evident in every vine-entangled ruin. Light spilled into her chamber.

Clara’s room was modest: a bed, a wardrobe, a desk. On it, a lone candle and scattered books that whispered of the kingdom’s past grandeur and freedoms now lost. It was her mother’s notes and books, crafted in the quiet, away from royal eyes — a puzzle to decipher, a quest still yearning for footsteps.

She draped a linen robe over her shoulders and approached the window, her fingers ink-stained from yesterday’s writings. Below, people shuffled through life, joyless and muted.

The spell cast long ago had become an oppressive, faceless dictator. It promised bread but dealt only crumbs, a tarnished magic now woven into the kingdom’s culture as enduringly as its ancient stone walls and teeming graveyards.

She remembered the cold spring day she put her mother in the earth. The ground was hard, the casket simple. The tombstone bore the words: ‘Seed in Drought.’

The chambermaid standing beside her asked what it meant.

“Her wish,” Clara answered. Her face gave nothing away, her thoughts a distant country.

From her room, Clara watched the people below — eyes down, spirits broken. Clara was not like the others. She carried an inner fire, gifted from her mother, a quiet revolt against a gray world.

In her room’s sanctuary, amid ink and parchment molded by hands long stilled, Clara found traces of a freer past, free from famine and theft of years. A past now entrusted to her. As she flipped through the timeworn pages of an ancient tome, something caught Clara’s eye. In the margins of the text, a note penned in her mother’s hand: “For Clara — Elric is the keeper of truths that free us. Go where I could not. Find him.” Below it, a tender signature, her mother’s name etched in ink.

The name ‘Elric’ stirred a latent memory, a shared secret often spoken by her mother. Filled with a sense of destiny, Clara closed her worn books and left her chamber.

At the age of twenty, for the first time, she ventured beyond the confining walls of her castle. Guided by remnants of forgotten eras, she set forth to unearth truths long interred but never wholly erased. Her compass drew her toward the Whispering Pines, a land untouched by the alchemist’s dark arts and, as her mother had often mentioned, the rumored dwelling of Elric.

Part V: Far to Go

Clara walked through towns void of kindness, over land stripped of life. Each day sculpted her in the likeness of the land she traversed — a leaner body, hands hardened, face etched by sun and wind.

Thirteen days out, Clara trudged through the ashen remains of a town, its name forgotten, its history lost. Empty buildings sagged under the weight of time, their hollow frames like gravestones against the evening sky. Vacant faces, like clock dials without hands, glanced through her, never at her.

Spying a run-down tavern, she cautiously stepped inside. The door whined on rusted hinges. She eased onto a splintered stool. “Bread,” she rasped. The innkeeper, a bloated man with eyes like rotted plums, flung stale crust onto the counter. Her teeth sank into the stale crust, her body weeping for nourishment.

The room stank of unwashed bodies and sour ale. In a dim corner, men gambled their souls on dice, their faces marred by desperation and greed. As she made to leave, talk stilled, and eyes tracked her. A rough hand seized her wrist.

“Far to go?” The words, a mockery.

Her eyes darted to the innkeeper, pleading for an ally. His gaze, cold, turned away. “Yes, far,” she replied, stalling.

Then, violence. Teeth, nails, a taste of blood. Outmanned, her screams died in cruel laughter. Her clothes yielded, torn in the contest of her humiliation.

After the degradation, she stepped outside and into the soft rain of the night. Her path now carried weight measured in more than miles.

Ahead, barren land stretched mercilessly. A fleeting image of her mother’s face offered a brief moment of comfort. She tilted her head back, letting rain droplets fall onto her tongue to dilute the bitterness that swelled within her. The night urged in tones only darkness knows. Turn back, it murmured.

But she walked on. Her will was a defiant ember, the last flicker of light in a world teetering on oblivion, its humanity long forfeited.

Part VI: Elric

After weeks traversing a harsh expanse, gaunt but unbroken, she found herself beneath the Whispering Pines. As she approached, she carried more than her own weight. She embodied her mother’s enduring hope and her land’s final prayer for redemption.

Elric greeted her at the doorway. “You’ve come,” he said, leading her inside, the room warm from the fire in the stone hearth.

Her eyes roved from the firelight dancing on the walls to the shelves laden with books. A staircase twisted upward, its banister engraved with ancient symbols.

“Your homeland withers,” Elric said, drawing from his pipe, the wood old and marked by years. The scent of herbs, a blend cultivated through many seasons, sharpened the mind as it filled the room. “The spell,” she confirmed.

“Mmm,” he exhaled, his eyes shifting to the fireplace, wood popping in the heat. “Your forebears knew better days. Days without sacrifice.”

“The legends spoke truth, then?”

“Indeed.”

“Did you know I was coming?”

“I’ve waited twenty years. This isn’t our first meeting.”

“We’ve met before?”

“Once, when you were but a newborn. Your mother and I collaborated. We worked on a potion that siphons the power of nature to protect the truth in our world, to shield it from alchemy and dark spells.”

Elric opened a small cabinet beside the hearth. From it, he took an empty wooden chalice and a stoppered glass vial. Uncorking the vial, he poured a golden liquid into the chalice, the firelight making it shimmer. “This elixir hails from untarnished lands, free from the alchemy that poisons your realm. One sip and illusions shatter, transforming soul and society alike.” “What is it called?” she asked.

He looked at her intently. “Elysium,” he said, the word hanging heavy in the room. “It’s both the end and the beginning of your journey. You must experience it to understand. Drink.”

She sipped the brew; it tasted of nothing. Soon, as she nestled by the fire, the walls took a breath, and the world sharpened as if coming into focus for the first time. The air thickened into a heavy mist, her fingers danced through it, each ripple sending colors splashing around like bioluminescent whispers. She floated, her body dissolving, her name a distant echo.

Elric’s gaze turned to the fire, shadows playing across his face. “Elysium shows only what one needs to see, no more, no less,” he said, his voice a gentle wave against the shores of her uncertainty. “In my own experience with Elysium, I saw a torchbearer in the veil of time, a young soul with the spark to undo the dark spell on your land.” His eyes found Clara’s. “But the torchbearer had to come to me, the journey forging the resolve. Had I sought you out sooner, before your heart was ready, Elysium’s truth would have been a burden too heavy.”

As the reality of his words sank in, Clara felt the weight of the years, the faces of the countless lives lost to the alchemist’s dark magic flashing before her eyes. “And the elixir… why not share it sooner?”

Elric sighed, his eyes drifting to the ancient books lining the shelves. “Elysium’s truth is a double-edged blade. In the wrong hands, it could cut through the fabric of reality, leaving wounds that might never heal. Your kingdom…” he gestured vaguely towards the window, “…it wasn’t ready. But now, the ground has been furrowed by suffering, ready to receive the truth about the universe, the spell, the suffering.”

The walls breathed with a rhythm older than time. She looked at her hands moving through the bioluminescent mist, each movement sending ripples across the room. Tendrils of light danced in the air, ethereal spirits beckoning her towards another realm.

“But why?” Clara pressed, her presence deepening with each breath. “Why involve yourself?”

Elric’s eyes softened. “I once lived in your kingdom, fleeing when I realized the spell’s plague. Your mother and I, we shared a vision of a world free from dark alchemy. But more than a promise to an old friend, it’s a battle against the grasp of evil spells, a grasp threatening to choke the essence of life and freedom from this world. It’s a battle,” he looked at Clara with a profound earnestness, “that now passes to you.”

Suddenly, reality shattered, and her soul twisted and warped through a portal faster and faster until she touched the core of the cosmos.

Here, in a land beyond words, beyond the confines of time and space, she witnessed the birth and demise of the universe. With each breath, a star was born and died; each blink saw the rise and fall of civilizations. Like a photon racing at light speed through the cosmos, untouched by time, she beheld the entirety of all that ever was and will be.

Peering beyond the infinitely small, she saw the source code of the universe, equations as living tendrils of light materializing into particles, planets, and stars. The universe, a symphony of mathematical elegance, its physicality a melody resonating along the strings of her consciousness.

She floated amidst the cosmic code, orchestrating the universe — the planets, the voids, the unseen forces weaving through them — and she was one with all. She was the universe gazing at itself. Beyond the veil of mortality, she saw endless realms, death a mere doorway. In that boundless expanse, she brushed against the face of the divine.

A golden phoenix took form before her.

“I am Veritas,” it spoke, not in words, but in a language of complex geometry.

It exposed the grim truths of her lands, the Great Famine, and the enslaving spell — a counterfeit prosperity bought at the terrible price of human years.

“How do we break free?” Clara’s voice carried the untold suffering of generations.

“Simple,” the phoenix intoned. “Don’t battle the alchemist or his spell; you won’t win. Acknowledge the illusion. Tend to your own gardens, and reliance on the alchemist and the king fades. Elysium shields you, body and mind, from the spell’s reach.”

As the vision faded, Clara found herself back on the wooden floor, her head cushioned by a pillow. The urgency of her quest snapped her back to reality, a newfound resolve kindling in her chest.

“I see now,” she breathed, her voice steady. “I know what I must do.”

Elric nodded, a sage with a deep understanding of the paths of the universe. “Yes, but first, tea. There’s strength to regain and you have a long journey ahead,” he said, anchoring them both in a moment of calm before the impending storm of change.

Part VII: The Wayfarer’s Hearth

After days navigating barren expanses, Clara entered a cobblestone town as twilight settled. Figures lined the street, some alive, some not, most in limbo — too tired to beg, too frail to feed. Candlelight flickered from the windows of a tavern, illuminating well-fed faces. “The Wayfarer’s Hearth,” read the sign above the door.

She approached. The door creaked open to admit her, wafting out stale beer and the scent of roast meat. Her fingers twitched involuntarily, memories of weeks ago crawling up her spine, but her body ached for sustenance, for warmth. Holding her satchel close, safeguarding the vial of Elysium, she chose a chair at an empty table and settled in. Soon enough, food appeared.

The man who had set her meal before her took the adjacent seat with deliberate ease, his eyes lingering on her satchel. Her pulse quickened.

“You carry a weight, wanderer,” he said.

“Or hope,” she countered, her grip on her satchel unyielding.

A glass shattered. Drunkards stumbled into their table, a wave of mead sweeping over worn wood. Clara’s heart surged, the man’s fingers brushed her satchel, pulling the vial from its sanctuary. “Hope carries its own burden,” he said.

“The hope of my people is in that vial,” she shot back, her voice stripped bare.

“This is Elysium,” he said, his words like barbs. “At what cost, wanderer, do you think Elysium will save your people?”

Doubt snaked around her convictions. Was she the bearer of emancipation or a harbinger of calamity? Was her land ready for Elysium? “You know it?” she asked.

“I know it,” he said, eyeing it closely.

“Return it,” she commanded.

He handed over the vial. “The road to freedom is paved with the stones of responsibility. I wouldn’t want to walk in your shoes.”

She nodded, heavy but resolute. Clara left as quietly as she’d come, meal untouched, mission intact.

The night took her in. She cast a final glance back at a room oblivious to her departure. That night, she’d sleep under indifferent stars, closer to home but adrift in certainty, carrying the weight of a thousand stones of untold responsibility, a Trojan’s shroud for her people, a destiny unasked.

Part VIII: This is Elysium

Under a storm-heavy sky, Clara returned home. In her pocket was Elysium; in her mind, a plan that required Harold — an old friend and a knight by trade.

In the guild hall, Harold sat among knights and minstrels, a goblet in hand. “Look at this,” Clara said, pushing the vial across the table without ceremony. Her words pierced the tavern’s noise as she recounted her journey.

Harold looked at her, then at the vial. “You mean to say that one day, this will help us fight the spell?”

“No,” said Clara, her voice deep with a new knowing. “It means one day, we won’t have to.”

“Heresy,” Harold said. “You’re risking death.”

“So are we all,” she answered.

“They’ll burn you at the stake.”

“If I’m right, they won’t.”

“A trial then, regardless,” Harold said, his gaze dropping to the vial as the tavern’s jovial banter became a distant echo for them both.

“So be it,” Clara said, meeting his gaze. She leaned in, her fingers resting on his scarred knuckles. “Our farms take our children. It’s not right.”

“It’s how things are.”

“It’s how things were.”

“A trial will not be lenient, Clara. I can’t let you bring this to the king.”

“Not the king. The people.” She continued. “But don’t trust me. See for yourself.” Her eyes locked onto his. “Drink,” she said, her words echoing Elric’s.

Harold hesitated but finally drank. His eyes widened. He gripped the edge of the wooden table, his knuckles turning white. A sort of vacant gaze overcame him as if he’d journeyed to someplace far.

When the Elysium vision receded, he opened his eyes and looked at her anew, seeing the world for the first time again. He glanced around the hall as though it were a foreign land, his eyes lingering on the mundane — a crack in the table, the smudged goblet, a flickering torch on the wall—with awe and wonder. She knew then that they stood as one. Two visionaries, shouldering the burden of transforming the world, ready to shepherd their people into a revolutionary dawn.

In the square, the stone eyes of old heroes watched. A crowd formed, silenced by expectation and unaccustomed to the art of public speaking. Autumn leaves swirled at their feet.

“A new dawn!” Harold broke the silence. “Generations sacrificed, giving years for meager sustenance. But the land wants not our years — only our care and periodic reverence. The tales of a time without the toll of hunger, without a tax on life itself, from before the Great Famine, are not myths. They are forgotten chapters of our history, now on the verge of being rewritten.”

He raised the vial. Sunlight mirrored in its gold. “This is Elysium.”

Part IX: A Revolution Takes Shape

In the fading light of day, Harold and Clara stood by a murmuring brook, leaves rustling at their feet in quiet revolt. Faces young and old assembled around them; each one a silent rebellion against the servitude that taxed their years.

They drank, the chalice passing from hand to hand, a new ritual born. With each gathering, the numbers swelled; with each sip, more souls entwined. Slowly, yet with unyielding certainty, the kingdom shifted over the years. It changed not through a coup or uprising but through a still, relentless force, like water eroding stone. As the seasons passed and more villagers imbibed the Elysian brew, the weight of their invisible chains lessened, their atoms scattering into the evening air.

Shielded now, villagers sowed their own gardens, sanctuaries from the alchemist’s dominion. Bountiful harvests followed, hope supplanted despair. Word of the blooming private gardens spread like wildflowers, and fields once cursed by dark alchemy lay fallow and forgotten.

And there, by the unassuming brook, a revolution took shape. The soft sounds of the stream became an earthbound anchor for the myriad souls who opened the door to walk in the cosmic gardens of their minds. Each ritual added another stitch in the fabric of a new dawn; each sip, another brushstroke on the canvas of a world remade.

Part X: The Old Man

A decade drifted by. With each soul that tasted Elysium, the fetters of the old world loosened. The alchemist’s spell, once a yoke around their necks, now waned like thick morning fog giving way to the warmth of the day. Fields once cursed now bore food, not dread. Families gathered around bountiful tables, words flowing freely, unveiled.

Each year, townsfolk met by the sword in the square. Harold’s blade, the first monument raised in ages, stood as freedom’s spine, the axis of their new world. An old man approached, his eyes dimmed by memories of famine, leading a boy by the hand. Their eyes met, a chasm bridged: one soul untarnished by hunger, the other haunted by its ghost.

The old man stepped forward, his fingers quivering on the hilt of the sword. “Clara, what becomes of us if the land fails us again?” Years of hardship wavered in his voice, the ghosts of famine flickering in his eyes.

“It could,” Clara said, her voice steady as bedrock. “But it’s different now. Our fields are wider, our hands more skilled. We’re not trying to trick the earth with alchemy anymore. We speak in the simple terms it understands: soil, sun, water, time.”

Above, the alchemist’s fortress loomed, its towers now marred with cracks. Clara looked up. Empty windows stared back, like dead eyes on a fallen beast. Old times had ended; new ones had begun.

Part XI: The Note

Dawn broke, casting new light over worn cobblestones. Clara moved through the marketplace as if through a dream. The scent of cinnamon and rich coffee filled the air as she ran her fingers down silken tassels and through powdery barrels of golden saffron. Voices haggled; her feet felt the earth’s warm embrace.

Traders argued leisurely, their time no longer taxed by the spell. Children laughed, unburdened by field and plow.

Fields that once caged both young and old now released thinkers, builders, creators. The horizon changed form — bridges leapt over waterways, roads bound the land. Each stone laid was more than a fixture; it was a vow, a pact between the present and the future. It was today’s promise to a future yet unborn, anchored by the prosperity that now bloomed under Elysium’s sky.

As evening descended, the grand hall filled with voices unburdened by yesterday’s sorrow. In a secluded corner, Clara and Harold exchanged words about the loftier truths Elysium had laid bare.

A courier emerged from the crowd, extending a sealed parchment. “For you, mademoiselle.”

With a nod, Clara exchanged a coin for the note. Her eyes brightened as she absorbed the message:

Only a true renaissance resounds to the Whispering Pines. Continue, in health and strength. - Elric

She passed it to Harold, their eyes locking in wordless affirmation. “The Whispering Pines acknowledge us,” he finally said. “And so, we continue,” Clara replied, her voice unwavering, guided by truth. In the hall’s enveloping warmth, laughter, toasts, and spirited debates blended into a harmonious score — a sound that would have been foreign to their ancestors, a sound that marked the close of an era and the dawn of something profoundly new.

---

This story first appeared in Tales from the Timechain. Support our work and buy a copyhere.

79% of the zaps from this story will be passed onto the author, Reed.

21 Futures requests 21% for operating costs.

---

Ioni Appelberg (pronounced Yo-Ni Apple-Burg) is a bitcoin philosopher, futurist, author, and content creator. His content centers around science fiction, human history and it often takes the form of swashbuckling journeys to the frontiers of technology, space, and the human mind. His love of sci-fi, psychedelics, and futurism may take his stories (and unsuspecting readers) to strange but exciting places. He is also an avid reader, a medical doctor, a freedom fighter, an MMA fighter, a psychonaut, and a terrible chess player.

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

crazy

@ c4f5e7a7:8856cac7

I've managed to amass three SN profiles.

Is there a way to combined these?

@k00b @ek

https://stacker.news/items/995836

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

hey

@ 32e18276:5c68e245

Damus OpenSats Grant Q1 2025 Progress Report

This period of the Damus OpenSats grant has been productive, and encompasses the work our beta release of Notedeck. Since we sent our last report on January, this encompasses all the work after then.

Damus Notedeck

We released the Beta version of Notedeck, which has many new features:

Dave

We've added a new AI-powered nostr assistant, similar to Grok on X. We call him Dave.

Dave is integrated with tooling that allows it to query the local relay for posts and profiles:

Search

The beta release includes a fulltext search interface powered by nostrdb:

Zaps

You can now zap with NWC!

And More!

• GIFs!
• Add full screen images, add zoom & pan
• Introduce last note per pubkey feed (experimental)
• Allow multiple media uploads per selection
• Major Android improvements (still wip)
• Added notedeck app sidebar
• User Tagging
• Note truncation
• Local network note broadcast, broadcast notes to other notedeck notes while you're offline
• Mute list support (reading)
• Relay list support
• Ctrl-enter to send notes
• Added relay indexing (relay columns soon)
• Click hashtags to open hashtag timeline

Damus iOS

Work continued on the iOS side. While I was not directly involved in the work since the last report, I have been directing and managing its development.

What's new:

Coinos Wallet + Interface

We've partnered with coinos to enable a one-click, non-KYC lightning wallet!

We now have an NWC wallet interface, and we've re-enabled zaps as per the new appstore guidelines!

Now you can see all incoming and outgoing NWC transactions and start zapping right away.

Enhanced hellthread muting

Damus can now automatically mute hellthreads, instead of having to do that manually.

Drafts

We now locally persist note drafts so that they aren't lost on app restart!

Profile editing enhancements

We now have a profile picture editing tool so that profile pictures are optimized and optionally cropped

Conversations tab

We now have a conversations tab on user profiles, allowing you to see all of your past conversations with that person!

Enhanced push notifications

We've updated our push notifications to include profile pictures, and they are also now grouped by the thread that they came from.

And lots more!

Too many to list here, check out the full changelog

Nostrdb

nostrdb, the engine that powers notecrumbs, damus iOS, and notedeck, continued to improve:

Custom filters

We've added the ability to include custom filtering logic during any nostrdb query. Dave uses this to filter replies from kind1 results to keep the results small and to avoid doing post-processing.

Relay index + queries

There is a new relay index! Now when ingesting notes, you can include extra metadata such as where the note came from. You can use this index to quickly list all of the relays for a particular note, or for relay timelines.

NIP50 profile searches

To assist dave in searching for profiles, we added a new query plan for {kind:0, search:} queries to scan the profile search index.

How money was used

• relay.damus.io server costs
• Living expenses

Next quarter

We're making a strong push to get our Android version released, so that is the main focus for me.

@ 6c05c73e:c4356f17

Isa Energia Brasil

Descrição da Empresa

A Isa Energia Brasil é uma das principais empresas do setor de transmissão de energia elétrica do Brasil. Anteriormente conhecida como ISA CTEEP (Companhia de Transmissão de Energia Elétrica Paulista), a companhia passou por um processo de rebranding em novembro de 2023 para refletir sua atuação em escala nacional, que se estende por 18 estados brasileiros.

• Papel no setor: Desempenha um papel crucial na infraestrutura energética do país, sendo responsável por transmitir aproximadamente 33% de toda a energia elétrica produzida no território nacional e 94% no estado de São Paulo.
• Controladora: A companhia é controlada pelo grupo colombiano ISA (Interconexión Eléctrica S.A.), um dos maiores conglomerados de transmissão de energia da América Latina, que detém uma participação majoritária em seu capital social.
• Vantagens: Essa conexão confere à Isa Energia Brasil um sólido respaldo técnico e financeiro, além de sinergias operacionais e de governança.

acoes isae4

Visão Geral da Empresa

A Isa Energia Brasil (ISAE4) é uma das maiores e mais importantes empresas de transmissão de energia elétrica do Brasil. Em termos simples, seu principal negócio é "transportar" a energia em alta tensão das usinas geradoras até as redes de distribuição que a levam para cidades e indústrias.

• Analogia: Pense nela como a gestora das grandes "rodovias" da eletricidade do país.

Mercado que Atua

O mercado de atuação da Isa Energia Brasil (ISAE4) é o setor de transmissão de energia elétrica, um segmento estratégico, altamente regulado e com características muito particulares dentro da cadeia de energia do Brasil. Para entender o mercado da empresa, é preciso conhecer 4 pilares principais:

1. O Modelo de Concessões Públicas

• Funcionamento: A Isa Energia Brasil não opera em um mercado aberto e tradicional. Sua atuação é baseada em concessões de longo prazo (geralmente 30 anos), adquiridas por meio de leilões públicos organizados pelo Governo Federal, através da ANEEL (Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica).
• Como funciona: Nos leilões, o governo define os projetos (novas linhas de transmissão e subestações a serem construídas). Vence a empresa que se propõe a construir e operar a infraestrutura pelo menor valor de receita anual.
• Barreiras de entrada: Este modelo cria altíssimas barreiras para novos concorrentes, pois exige enorme capacidade de investimento (capital intensivo), conhecimento técnico especializado e habilidade para vencer disputas acirradas nos leilões.

2. A Previsibilidade da Receita (RAP)

• Receita Anual Permitida (RAP): É a remuneração que a empresa tem direito a receber por disponibilizar suas linhas de transmissão em perfeitas condições de operação. O valor da RAP é definido no leilão e reajustado anualmente por um índice de inflação (geralmente o IPCA), o que protege a receita da desvalorização da moeda.
• Baixo risco: Como a receita é fixa e garantida por contrato, o risco operacional é muito baixo. A empresa recebe o valor integral desde que suas linhas e subestações estejam funcionando. Se houver falhas, ela pode ser penalizada com um desconto na receita, por isso a eficiência na operação e manutenção é fundamental.

3. Posicionamento Estratégico e Geográfico

• Dominância: É responsável por transportar aproximadamente 33% de toda a energia elétrica produzida no Brasil e impressionantes 94% da energia consumida no estado de São Paulo, o maior centro de carga do país.
• Capilaridade nacional: Embora sua origem seja paulista (antiga CTEEP), a empresa expandiu sua atuação e hoje possui ativos em 18 estados brasileiros, o que a posiciona como um player de relevância nacional.
• Principais concorrentes: Seus principais competidores no setor de transmissão são outras grandes empresas como a Eletrobras, TAESA e Alupar, que também disputam ativamente os leilões da ANEEL.

4. Vetores de Crescimento e Perspectivas

• Transição energética: O Brasil está aumentando massivamente sua capacidade de geração de energia renovável, especialmente eólica e solar. A maioria dessas novas usinas está localizada no Nordeste e no norte de Minas Gerais, longe dos grandes centros consumidores (Sudeste). Isso cria uma necessidade urgente de construir novas "autoestradas" de energia para escoar essa produção, garantindo uma demanda contínua por novos projetos de transmissão.
• Crescimento da demanda: O crescimento econômico e populacional do país, além da eletrificação da economia (ex.: carros elétricos), aumenta a necessidade geral de energia, exigindo uma rede de transmissão cada vez mais robusta e confiável.

Oportunidades que o Ativo Traz

As principais oportunidades que a empresa traz são:

• Alta previsibilidade de receita devido à Receita Anual Permitida (RAP).
• Expansão em investimentos de infraestrutura.
• Contratos de concessão renovados e com longa duração.

Isso tudo torna a empresa uma excelente pagadora de dividendos e JCP. No último anúncio da empresa, foram destinados R$2,36 por ação de juros sobre capital próprio, o que a torna um excelente ativo para o longo prazo.

quadro de jcp da isae4

Riscos

Por ser uma empresa que atua no setor de energia elétrica, ela assume alguns riscos que precisam ser monitorados de perto, tais como:

• Natureza (escassez de chuvas): Pode prejudicar a geração de energia e, como consequência, reduzir a transmissão de energia elétrica. Consulte aqui.
• Riscos regulatórios e governamentais (o principal): A empresa opera em um setor regulado pela ANEEL e sob concessões do governo.
• Financeiro: Para financiar seus projetos, a empresa precisa se endividar via debêntures, que são atreladas à Selic. Qualquer variação altera o financeiro da empresa.
• Dividendos: Pode ser uma faca de dois gumes, pois está previsto pagamentos muito maiores no futuro, o que pode retardar o crescimento da empresa devido ao pagamento excessivo.
• Risco operacional: Tudo que envolve intervenção humana pode ter falhas, mesmo que a empresa opere com alta eficiência hoje. Alguém pode “dormir no ponto”.

Tabela de Endividamento

A dívida bruta da companhia atingiu R$ 14.952,1 milhões no 1T25, aumento de R$ 1.678,3 milhões (+12,6%) em relação ao saldo final do 4T24. O aumento se deve, principalmente, à:

• 18ª emissão de debêntures no montante de R$ 1.400,0 milhões em março de 2025.
• 4º desembolso do BNDES em janeiro de 2025 com valor de R$ 82,1 milhões.

A companhia concluiu a 18ª emissão de debêntures no 1T25, levantando R$ 1.400,0 milhões em 2 séries: - Primeira série: R$ 500,0 milhões com custo de IPCA + 7,41% e vencimento em setembro de 2033. - Segunda série: R$ 900,0 milhões com custo de IPCA + 7,41% e vencimento em junho de 2033.

Catalisadores

Os pontos-chave que considero ao investir na empresa são:

• Parceria com a Taesa ampliada. Matéria aqui.
• Alta previsibilidade de receita devido à Receita Anual Permitida (RAP).
• Nova rodada de emissão de debêntures para ampliação de investimentos.
• Previsão de queda da Selic para 12,5% em 2026, o que tornaria “os débitos da empresa mais baratos”.
• Alta perspectiva de aumento no pagamento de dividendos e JCP ao longo dos próximos anos.

cotacao da isase4 lucro liquido isae4

FAQ

A ação ISAE4 é uma boa ação para investir?

Cada um deve fazer sua análise, mas acreditamos que é uma empresa sólida e com bons fundamentos.

Qual é o preço justo da ação ISAE4?

Não há uma base sólida para calcular o preço justo. Na nossa ótica, o ativo está subvalorizado.

Qual o DY da ISAE4?

Dividendo de 10,2% anunciado em 2021.

Como declarar o ISAE4?

A declaração do ISAE4 é dividida em três partes principais:

1. Declaração da Posse das Ações (o que você tinha em carteira).
2. Declaração dos Rendimentos Isentos (Dividendos).
3. Declaração dos Rendimentos de Tributação Exclusiva (Juros Sobre Capital Próprio - JCP).

O documento mais importante para este processo é o Informe de Rendimentos, fornecido pelo banco escriturador das ações.

• Empresa: ISA ENERGIA BRASIL S.A.
• CNPJ: 02.998.611/0001-04
• Banco Escriturador: Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.
• Como obter o informe: Acesse o Portal de Correspondências Digitais do Itaú para obter seu informe oficial. Ele contém todos os valores separados e prontos para a declaração.

Bio

Investir não precisa ser um bicho de sete cabeças! Na Threedolar, democratizamos o acesso ao mundo dos investimentos, oferecendo conteúdo claro e prático. Comece hoje mesmo a construir seu futuro financeiro!

Disclaimer

Lembre-se: este não é um conselho de investimento. Faça sua própria pesquisa antes de investir. Resultados passados não garantem lucros futuros. Cuide do seu dinheiro!

Referências

• Earnings Release 1T25
• Comunicado ao Mercado - Contratos AIE
• Paraguaçu e Aimorés emitem R$ 700 milhões em debêntures
• Interligação Elétrica Paraguaçu-Aimorés
• Taxa de Juros - Brasil
• Dados Históricos - INMET
• Fundamentus - ISAE4
• Concessões - Isa Energia Brasil

@ fa0165a0:03397073

Test of untype

Let see what this markdown editor goes for. Quite nice layout, but so far in my testing only usable via computer. On phone, the keyboard covers the writing area, hehe. Now, where do these get published when posted?

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

enjoy

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

The other day, I had the privilege of sitting down with one of my favorite living artists. Our conversation was so captivating that I felt compelled to share it. I’m leaving his name out for privacy.

Since our last meeting, I’d watched a documentary about his life, one he’d helped create. I told him how much I admired his openness in it. There’s something strange about knowing intimate details of someone’s life when they know so little about yours—it’s almost like I knew him too well for the kind of relationship we have.

He paused, then said quietly, with a shy grin, that watching the documentary made him realize how “odd and eccentric” he is. I laughed and told him he’s probably the sanest person I know. Because he’s lived fully, chasing love, passion, and purpose with hardly any regrets. He’s truly lived.

Today, I turn 44, and I’ll admit I’m a bit eccentric myself. I think I came into the world this way. I’ve made mistakes along the way, but I carry few regrets. Every misstep taught me something. And as I age, I’m not interested in blending in with the world—I’ll probably just lean further into my own brand of “weird.” I want to live life to the brim. The older I get, the more I see that the “normal” folks often seem less grounded than the eccentric artists who dare to live boldly. Life’s too short to just exist, actually live.

I’m not saying to be strange just for the sake of it. But I’ve seen what the crowd celebrates, and I’m not impressed. Forge your own path, even if it feels lonely or unpopular at times.

It’s easy to scroll through the news and feel discouraged. But actually, this is one of the most incredible times to be alive! I wake up every day grateful to be here, now. The future is bursting with possibility—I can feel it.

So, to my fellow weirdos on nostr: stay bold. Keep dreaming, keep pushing, no matter what’s trending. Stay wild enough to believe in a free internet for all. Freedom is radical—hold it tight. Live with the soul of an artist and the grit of a fighter. Thanks for inspiring me and so many others to keep hoping. Thank you all for making the last year of my life so special.

@ 04c3c1a5:a94cf83d

testttt

@ 70c48e4b:00ce3ccb

Dear readers,

“The direct use of force is such a poor solution to any problem, it is generally employed only by small children and large nations.” — David Friedman

What If we could enforce promises without force?

David Friedman, in his book The Machinery of Freedom, tosses out a pretty wild idea: that people can build systems of cooperation and justice without needing a government at all. These systems rely on voluntary agreements, social reputation, and mutual incentives. In such a world, contracts hold value because honoring a promise brings greater rewards than breaking it.

From Friedman to Bitcoin

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/e8zsFTV94bw/maxresdefault.jpg

This vision shaped the thinking behind Angor, a funding tool built on Bitcoin. Friedman’s ideas showed that systems of cooperation could work without central authority, and Bitcoin now provides the foundation to build them. It records transactions in a public and tamper-proof way. With features like Taproot, people can set clear rules for funding and accountability. Angor uses these tools to help founders and backers create agreements that are transparent and easy to verify.

The result is a new kind of marketplace where follow-through is visible, and reputation becomes a real asset. Instead of relying on enforcement from above, trust is earned through action and built into the system itself.

What happens after the project succeeds?

One important question kept returning throughout our work: what happens after a project succeeds? The founder raises the funds, delivers the product, and begins earning revenue. What mechanism ensures that revenue is shared as promised? How can investors protect their interests in an environment that relies on voluntary structure rather than external authority?

To explore possible answers, we looked at how libertarian thinkers approach contracts in stateless systems.

How libertarian thinkers approach contracts without the state?

Friedman, along with other libertarian thinkers like Murray Rothbard and Bruce Benson, describes voluntarily created legal systems where people make binding agreements and use private mechanisms to enforce them. These mechanisms include:

• Reputational risk
• Collateralized performance
• Community arbitration
• Decentralized insurance

Such tools can replace state-backed enforcement when trust is earned and incentives are aligned.

If founders are anonymous:

When a founder chooses to remain pseudonymous, legal enforcement is not available. In this case, the agreement between the founder and investor can rely on cryptographic mechanisms such as performance bonds, revenue proofs, and public reputation systems.

1. Performance Bonds

• Founders deposit additional Bitcoin into a separate, time-locked contract. As they meet revenue-sharing milestones, they are allowed to unlock specific portions of this bond.

• If a revenue allocation is missed or a deadline passes without fulfillment, the contract redirects the bond to investors through a Taproot clause i.e. a feature in Bitcoin that lets you set up ‘if-this-then-that’ rules directly into a transaction, but privately. This creates a clear and automatic consequence, reinforcing accountability through financial incentives.

1. Revenue Proofs and Oracles

• Most founders, especially those running small businesses like cafes, games, or services, do not earn revenue in Bitcoin. Their income flows through fiat systems, which means automatic on-chain revenue streaming is not an option. The only way to maintain transparency is to prove income after the fact. This starts with exporting a sales report from a platform such as Stripe, Revolut, or a point-of-sale system. The founder hashes the file and posts that hash to the Bitcoin blockchain as a timestamped public reference.

• An oracle plays the role of a neutral verifier. This could be a trusted accountant or an observer chosen by the investor community. Their job is simple: compare the actual report with the hash recorded on-chain. If the data matches, the oracle signs a message that triggers the revenue-share payout using a Discreet Log Contract (DLC).

A DLC is similar to a smart contract, but built for Bitcoin. It allows two parties to agree on a specific outcome, such as how much revenue was made, and only releases funds when that outcome is confirmed by the oracle.

This process does not depend on central enforcement. Instead, it works through mutual agreement and the oracle’s reputation, or any collateral they may have provided in advance.

1. Reputation as collateral

• Every revenue-share payout is recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain, making it publicly visible and verifiable. Community-run indexers can scan the chain and track whether a founder consistently delivers payments on time. This performance history is then summarized into what is known as a “contract streak,” which refers to the number of consecutive payouts completed without delay.

• These streaks are published as signed events through protocols like Nostr, allowing anyone to verify a founder’s track record. A strong, uninterrupted streak builds credibility and can improve the chances of raising funds for future projects. In contrast, a broken streak signals risk, which discourages new investment and reduces access to support from the Angor community.

If founders are public:

When a founder uses a real identity, the parties can combine legal agreements with on-chain contracts. These hybrid arrangements allow for tools like enforceable smart contracts, voluntary arbitration, and potentially community-backed insurance.

1. Legally binding smart contracts

• This type of agreement formally identifies the founder’s legal entity and clearly links it to specific Taproot addresses used in the project. It outlines the rules for revenue sharing, describes what constitutes a breach, and specifies how disputes should be resolved. Because it is a formal legal document, it can be enforced in any relevant jurisdiction where the founder has a presence or assets.

1. Private arbitration

• During the contract setup, both parties can agree to a neutral arbitrator who will step in if a dispute arises. If a revenue payout is delayed or missed, the arbitrator reviews all relevant data, including on-chain records, oracle confirmations, and supporting documentation. Based on this evidence, the arbitrator issues a decision that determines whether funds should be released, held, or redirected. This method provides a clear resolution process without involving courts, while still maintaining a fair and structured outcome.

1. Equity sharing and traditional securities

• When founders are publicly identified and operating under a registered entity, they can also offer equity in the company as part of the funding arrangement. This can take the form of direct share issuance, convertible notes, or tokenized equity, depending on jurisdictional frameworks and investor preferences.

While Angor does not facilitate equity transfers directly, the on-chain agreement can reference these arrangements clearly. Investors may receive shares documented in a cap table, with accompanying legal agreements that govern dividend rights, voting power, or exit terms.

This method provides a more conventional form of investor alignment and is often well-understood by experienced backers. It can also be combined with on-chain revenue-sharing mechanisms to create hybrid models that balance transparency with long-term equity value.

Final Thought: Alignment Over Authority

The ideas in The Machinery of Freedom show how people can build cooperative systems without relying on centralized authority. Angor puts those ideas into action by applying them to decentralized crowdfunding. Each campaign becomes a contract. Each payout becomes a public signal of integrity. Reputation is built over time, through visible and verifiable performance.

This approach shifts enforcement from force to alignment. It rewards honesty and transparency while making misuse costly. By designing systems where trust is earned through action and recorded on-chain, we move toward a more resilient model of funding. This model is grounded in consent, shaped by shared incentives, and supported by the open logic of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin itself works this way. Miners follow the rules not because they are told to, but because breaking them wastes energy, time, and opportunity. The cost of cheating is built into the system. Angor adopts the same principle: integrity is not enforced from above, it is embedded in the architecture.

If you are building on Angor or exploring similar ideas, reach out. The tools are evolving, and the community is growing.

https://docs.angor.io/images/tools/hub.png

Have you tried Angor yet?

Thank you & Ciao. Guest writer: Paco nostr:npub1v67clmf4jrezn8hsz28434nc0y5fu65e5esws04djnl2kasxl5tskjmjjk