@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

To become a master designer, you need to break past a slavish devotion of past forms and create vibrant, new experiences. This design talk covers practical techniques for reinventing game genres. The goal is the invention of a unique and highly differentiated customer value proposition that makes both strong business sense and is also deeply creatively fulfilling. We cover designing from the root, reducing design risk, and igniting original franchises. We also cover the pitfalls of design innovation and how to thrive in a highly competitive market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7DFuXDN29M

https://stacker.news/items/1001313

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

People forget Bear Stearns failed March 2008 - months of denial followed before the public realized how bad the situation was under the surface.

Similar happening now but much larger scale. They did not fix fundamental issues after 2008 - everything is more fragile.

The Fed preemptively bailed out every bank with their BTFP program and First Republic Bank still failed. The second largest bank failure in history.

There will be more failures. There will be more bailouts. Depositors will be "protected" by socializing losses across everyone.

Our President and mainstream financial pundits are currently pretending the banking crisis is over while most banks remain insolvent. There are going to be many more bank failures as this ponzi system unravels.

Unlike 2008, we have the ability to opt out of these broken and corrupt institutions by using bitcoin. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk - you do not have to trust a bank or other centralized entity to hold it for you. Bitcoin is also incredibly difficult to change by design since it is not controlled by an individual, company, or government - the supply of dollars will inevitably be inflated to bailout these failing banks but bitcoin supply will remain unchanged. I do not need to convince you that bitcoin provides value - these next few years will convince millions.

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.

— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022

Good morning.

It looks like PacWest will fail today. It will be both the fifth largest bank failure in US history and the sixth major bank to fail this year. It will likely get purchased by one of the big four banks in a government orchestrated sale.  

March 8th - Silvergate Bank
March 10th - Silicon Valley Bank
March 12th - Signature Bank
March 19th - Credit Suisse
May 1st - First Republic Bank
May 4th - PacWest Bank?

PacWest is the first of many small regional banks that will go under this year. Most will get bought by the big four in gov orchestrated sales. This has been the playbook since 2008. Follow the incentives. Massive consolidation across the banking industry. PacWest gonna be a drop in the bucket compared to what comes next.

First, a hastened government led bank consolidation, then a public/private partnership with the remaining large banks to launch a surveilled and controlled digital currency network. We will be told it is more convenient. We will be told it is safer. We will be told it will prevent future bank runs. All of that is marketing bullshit. The goal is greater control of money. The ability to choose how we spend it and how we save it. If you control the money - you control the people that use it.

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@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

A Junior-level free online course divided in four modules aiming to help you develop experience and confidence with: 1) An approach to mechanical systems design that incorporates ideation, back-of-the-envelope analysis, computational analysis, and prototyping, iteratively and with an appropriate balance for the domain. 2) Designing custom mechanical components, finding and selecting common machine elements, and selecting electric motors and transmission elements to meet performance, efficiency and reliability goals.

The first project introduces the structure of projects in this course; introduces the design approach; reviews and begins to apply statics and stress analysis skills from prerequisite courses to design; introduces finite-element analysis; and provides an opportunity to work out any issues with fabrication methods.

The second project comprises a challenging, open-ended problem: design of a single component for mass efficiency. Success requires sophisticated application of the design approach, including statics analysis using free-body diagrams; stress, deflection and buckling analysis using simplified models and finite-element analysis; and testing of both low-fidelity and functional prototypes.

The third project introduces simple models of electric motors and gears; applies these models to selection of a motor operating point and gear ratio; and introduces the design of experiments to identify important system characteristics.

The fourth project comprises the challenging, open-ended design of a motor-driven machine to maximize electromechanical performance. It requires application of the Design Approach to complex problems in a team setting; effective incorporation of multiple custom and catalog components into an assembly; and sophisticated use motor and gear models, power analysis, and mass-efficient component design.

Start the course, it's free at https://biomechatronics.stanford.edu/mechanical-systems-design

https://stacker.news/items/1001283

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

There must be a limit to how much data is transferred across the bitcoin network in order to keep the ability to run and use your own node accessible. A node is required to interact with the global bitcoin network - if you do not use your own node then you must trust someone else's node. If nodes become inaccessible to run then the network will centralize around the remaining entities that operate them - threatening the censorship resistance at the core of bitcoin's value prop. The bitcoin protocol uses three main mechanisms to keep node operation costs low - a fixed limit on the amount of data in each block, an automatic difficulty adjustment that regulates how many blocks are produced based on current mining hash rate, and a robust dynamic transaction fee market.

Bitcoin transaction fees limit network abuse by making usage expensive. There is a cost to every transaction, set by a dynamic free market based on demand for scarce block space. It is an incredibly robust way to prevent spam without relying on centralized entities that can be corrupted or pressured.

After the 2017 bitcoin fee spike we had six years of relative quiet to build tools that would be robust in a sustained high fee market. Fortunately our tools are significantly better now but many still need improvement. Most of the pain points we see today will be mitigated.

The reality is we were never going to be fully prepared - pressure is needed to show the pain points and provide strong incentives to mitigate them.

It will be incredibly interesting to watch how projects adapt under pressure. Optimistic we see great innovation here.

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_If you are willing to wait for your transaction to confirm you can pay significantly lower fees. Learn best practices for reducing your fee burden here.

My guide for running and using your own bitcoin node can be found here._

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

What is KYC/AML?

• The acronym stands for Know Your Customer / Anti Money Laundering.
• In practice it stands for the surveillance measures companies are often compelled to take against their customers by financial regulators.
• Methods differ but often include: Passport Scans, Driver License Uploads, Social Security Numbers, Home Address, Phone Number, Face Scans.
• Bitcoin companies will also store all withdrawal and deposit addresses which can then be used to track bitcoin transactions on the bitcoin block chain.
• This data is then stored and shared. Regulations often require companies to hold this information for a set number of years but in practice users should assume this data will be held indefinitely. Data is often stored insecurely, which results in frequent hacks and leaks.  
• KYC/AML data collection puts all honest users at risk of theft, extortion, and persecution while being ineffective at stopping crime. Criminals often use counterfeit, bought, or stolen credentials to get around the requirements. Criminals can buy "verified" accounts for as little as $200. Furthermore, billions of people are excluded from financial services as a result of KYC/AML requirements.

During the early days of bitcoin most services did not require this sensitive user data, but as adoption increased so did the surveillance measures. At this point, most large bitcoin companies are collecting and storing massive lists of bitcoiners, our sensitive personal information, and our transaction history.

Lists of Bitcoiners

KYC/AML policies are a direct attack on bitcoiners. Lists of bitcoiners and our transaction history will inevitably be used against us.

Once you are on a list with your bitcoin transaction history that record will always exist. Generally speaking, tracking bitcoin is based on probability analysis of ownership change. Surveillance firms use various heuristics to determine if you are sending bitcoin to yourself or if ownership is actually changing hands.  You can obtain better privacy going forward by using collaborative transactions such as coinjoin to break this probability analysis.

Fortunately, you can buy bitcoin without providing intimate personal information. Tools such as peach, hodlhodl, robosats, azteco and bisq help; mining is also a solid option: anyone can plug a miner into power and internet and earn bitcoin by mining privately.

You can also earn bitcoin by providing goods and/or services that can be purchased with bitcoin. Long term, circular economies will mitigate this threat: most people will not buy bitcoin - they will earn bitcoin - most people will not sell bitcoin - they will spend bitcoin.

There is no such thing as KYC or No KYC bitcoin, there are bitcoiners on lists and those that are not on lists.

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

I often hear "bitcoin doesn't interest me, I'm not a finance person."

Ironically, the beauty of sound money is you don't have to be. In the current system you're expected to manage a diversified investment portfolio or pay someone to do it. Bitcoin will make that optional.

— ODELL (@ODELL) September 16, 2018

At first glance bitcoin often appears overwhelming to newcomers. It is incredibly easy to get bogged down in the details of how it works or different ways to use it. Enthusiasts, such as myself, often enjoy going down the deep rabbit hole of the potential of bitcoin, possible pitfalls and theoretical scenarios, power user techniques, and the developer ecosystem. If your first touch point with bitcoin is that type of content then it is only natural to be overwhelmed. While it is important that we have a thriving community of bitcoiners dedicated to these complicated tasks - the true beauty of bitcoin lies in its simplicity. Bitcoin is simply better money. It is the best money we have ever had.

Life is complicated. Life is hard. Life is full of responsibility and surprises. Bitcoin allows us to focus on our lives while relying on a money that is simple. A money that is not controlled by any individual, company, or government. A money that cannot be easily seized or blocked. A money that cannot be devalued at will by a handful of corrupt bureaucrat who live hundreds of miles from us. A money that can be easily saved and should increase in purchasing power over time without having to learn how to "build a diversified stock portfolio" or hire someone to do it for us.

Bitcoin enables all of us to focus on our lives - our friends and family - doing what we love with the short time we have on this earth. Time is scarce. Life is complicated. Bitcoin is the most simple aspect of our complicated lives. If we spend our scarce time working then we should be able to easily save that accrued value for future generations without watching the news or understanding complicated financial markets. Bitcoin makes this possible for anyone.

Yesterday was Mother's Day. Raising a human is complicated. It is hard, it requires immense personal responsibility, it requires critical thinking, but mothers figure it out, because it is worth it. Using and saving bitcoin is simple -  simply install an app on your phone. Every mother can do it. Every person can do it.

Life is complicated. Life is beautiful. Bitcoin is simple.

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Life Insurer, Meanwhile, Becomes First Company to Publish Audited Financials Denominated in Bitcoin

Meanwhile Insurance Bitcoin (Bermuda) Limited (“Meanwhile”) announced it has become the first company in the world to release externally audited financial statements denominated entirely in Bitcoin. According to the announcement, the company reported 220.4 BTC in assets and 25.29 BTC in net income for 2024, a 300% year over year increase.

Today marks a global first & historic event for us, along with the public release of our 2024 audited financial statements, covering our 1st year of sales.

As the 1st company in the world to have Bitcoin-denominated financial statements externally audited, we are excited to…

— meanwhile | Bitcoin Life Insurance (@meanwhilelife) June 5, 2025

“We’ve just made history as the first company in the world to have Bitcoin-denominated financial statements externally audited,” said Zac Townsend, CEO of Meanwhile. “This is an important, foundational step in reimagining the financial system based on a single, global, decentralized standard outside the control of any one government.” 

The financial statements were audited by Harris & Trotter LLP and its digital asset division ht.digital. Meanwhile’s financials also comply with Bermuda’s Insurance Act 1978, noting that their BTC denominated financials were approved and comply with official guidelines. The firm, fully licensed by the Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA), operates entirely in BTC and is prohibited from liquidating Bitcoin assets except through policyholder claims, positioning it as a long term holder. 

“As the first regulated Bitcoin life insurance company, we view the BTC held by Meanwhile as inherently long-term in nature—primarily held to support the Company’s insurance liabilities over decades,” Townsend added. “This makes it significantly ‘stickier’ and resistant to market pressures compared to the BTC held by other companies as part of their treasury management strategies.” 

Meanwhile’s 2024 financials also revealed 23.02 BTC in net premiums and 4.35 BTC in investment income, showing that its model not only preserves Bitcoin, but earns it. The company’s reserves (also held in BTC) were reviewed and approved by Willis Towers Watson (WTW). 

Meanwhile also offers a Bitcoin Whole Life insurance product that allows policyholders to save, borrow, and build legacy wealth—entirely in BTC, and has plans to expand globally in 2025.

“We are incredibly proud of today’s news as it underscores how Meanwhile is at the forefront of the next phase of the convergence between Bitcoin and institutional financial markets,” said Tia Beckmann, CFO of Meanwhile. “Now having generated net income in BTC, we have demonstrated that we are earning it through a sustainable insurance business model designed for the long term.” 

This post Bitcoin Life Insurer, Meanwhile, Becomes First Company to Publish Audited Financials Denominated in Bitcoin first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Jenna Montgomery.

@ 58537364:705b4b85

๑) แรงอะไรจูงใจ กับโลกทุนนิยมที่ส่งอิทธิพลไปทุกหัวระแหง ชีวิตของมนุษย์ถูกกระตุ้นรุนเร้าด้วยความมั่งคั่งร่ำรวย ความเป็นอยู่ที่สะดวกสบายมีกินมีใช้ อยากทำอะไรก็ได้ทำ อยากกินอะไรก็ได้กิน หล่อเลี้ยงความสุขด้วยการแย่งชิงผลประโยชน์เพื่อตนเอง ตั้งแต่เด็กจนโต

เบื้องหลังแห่งการดำเนินชีวิตเช่นนั้น สิ่งที่บงการชักใยอยู่ก็คือ ”ตัณหา“ ความอยากได้ อยากมี อยากเป็น สิ่งที่คิด-พูด-ทำก็เป็นไปเพื่อตนเอง และพวกพ้องโดยไม่สนใจว่าจะทำลายใคร ไม่ว่ามนุษย์ สัตว์ หรือสิ่งแวดล้อม เบื้องหน้าแห่งชีวิตเช่นนี้ คือการประชาสัมพันธ์ด้วยความเจริญ โลกาภิวัฒน์ ความหรูหราไม่มีที่สิ้นสุด

แต่ตลอดชั่วชีวิตของเรา การใช้ชีวิตเช่นนี้สามารถมอบความสุขที่แท้จริงให้ได้หรือไม่ เงินซื้อ “ความไม่เจ็บป่วย” ได้หรือไม่ ? เกียรติยศแลกเป็น “ความไม่แก่” ได้หรือไม่ บ้านใหญ่โตหรูหราอยู่อาศัยแล้ว “ไม่ตาย” ได้หรือไม่ คำตอบเดียวที่ได้คือ “ไม่มี” ซึ่งมนุษย์ทุกคนก็ยัง “ทุกข์” อยู่กับความเจ็บป่วย ความแก่ ความตาย อย่างไม่มีเว้น ถึงเวลาหรือยังที่มนุษย์จะหันมาตระหนักกับ ”แรงจูงใจ“ ที่เรียกว่าตัณหานี้

พระพุทธเจ้าทรงเรียนรู้ชีวิตที่มีแต่ความทุกข์ไร้ทางออก หมุนวน จมจ่อม เพราะเหตุจากตัณหาเหล่านี้ชัดแล้ว ได้รู้และเข้าใจว่า “ฉันทะ” หรือความพอใจใฝ่ดี พัฒนาจิตใจให้สูงขึ้น ปลดเปลี้ยงความเห็นแก่ตัว เพื่อใช้ชีวิตคิด-พูด-ทำแต่ความดีงาม สร้างสรรค์สิ่งต่าง ๆ สมบูรณ์เต็มสภาวะของมัน แรงจูงใจเช่นนี้เป็นของยาก ของลำบาก เพราะต้องฝืนตนเอง ฝึกฝนให้จิตใจมีกำลัง ใช้ปัญญาพิจารณาเฟ้นหาประโยชน์จากทุกสิ่งอย่างคุ้มค่า และยั่งยืน

พระอาจารย์ท่านหนึ่ง ได้พูดขึ้นในท่ามกลางสงฆ์ว่า “หลาย ๆ คนที่เป็นคนรวย มีเงินพอได้สิ่งของที่อยากได้มา ตอนสุดท้ายก็มักจะพูดว่า ’นึกกว่าจะดีกว่านี้ อร่อยกว่านี้ มีความสุขกว่านี้ พอได้มาแล้วก็ไม่เห็นดีเหมือนที่คิดไว้เลย’ ซึ่งตรงกันข้ามกับคนที่ปฏิบัติจนเข้าถึงธรรม ไม่มีใครพูดแบบนั้น มีแต่พูดว่า ‘ยิ่งกว่าที่คิดไว้ ดีกว่าที่คิดไว้ ประเสริฐกว่าที่คิดไว้’ ความสุขที่ไม่สามารถจินตนาการได้ ความสุขที่ไม่เคยนำความผิดหวังมาให้ ความสุขประเภทนี้มีแรงจูงใจคือ ”ฉันทะ“ นั่นเอง

——

๒) หัวขบวน หากเราอาศัยตัณหานำพาชีวิต ชีวิตของเราก็จะวนเวียนเรื่อยเปื่อย มีแต่ความทุกข์ในปัจจุบัน และทุกข์ที่รออยู่ในอนาคต ชีวิตเช่นนี้ ก็ไม่ต่างอะไรกับชีวิตของแมว-หนู-ปู-กุ้ง-กา-ไก่ เอาแต่ แสวงหาอาหาร-กิน-นอน ได้ความสุขประเดี๋ยวประด๋าว แล้วก็หมดเวลาถึงวาระที่ต้องตายจากไป ไม่เคยรู้จักคุณค่าชีวิตที่แท้จริง ไม่ได้ความสุขสงบเลยสักวินาทีเดียว

พระพุทธเจ้าตรัสรู้แล้ว เล็งเห็นว่า มนุษย์มีศักยภาพที่มากกว่าสัตว์ทั้งหลาย การปล่อยชีวิตให้เต็มไปด้วย “อวิชชา” ความไม่รู้ ก่อให้เกิดตัณหา แล้วก็ชักพาชีวิตทำอกุศลกรรม มีแต่ความทุกข์ตลอดสายนั้น สามารถเปลี่ยนกระบวนทัศน์ได้ โดยมุ่งเน้นที่ “ปัญญา” ความรู้และเข้าใจความเป็นจริง ก่อให้เกิดฉันทะความพอใจใฝ่ดีในชีวิต ขับเคลื่อนเป็นกุศลกรรม สร้างเหตุที่ถูกต้อง ผลที่เป็นความสุข ความไม่ทุกข์ และความพ้นทุกข์ ก็จะตามมา

เพราะฉะนั้นทุกครั้งไม่ว่าทำอะไร หรือไม่ทำอะไร ลองทบทวนดูว่า การตัดสินใจนั้น ๆ มีอะไรเป็นหัวขบวน ”ตัณหา“ หรือ ”ปัญญา“ ใครเหนือกว่าใคร

——

๓) หลัก ๑๐ ประการ ครั้งหนึ่งพระพุทธเจ้าได้กำชับกับเหล่าสาวกว่า หากเมื่อใดถูกนักบวชพวกอื่นมาถามถึง หลักธรรมที่พระพุทธองค์ทรงแสดง มีอะไรเป็น ”ที่ตั้งต้น“ และมีอะไรเป็น “ที่จบ” ทรงวางหลักธรรมนั้นไว้ ๑๐ ประการ ได้แก่ * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีฉันทะ เป็นที่ตั้งต้น * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีมนสิการ เป็นที่ก่อตัว * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีผัสสะ เป็นแหล่งเกิด * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีเวทนา เป็นที่ชุมนุม * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีสมาธิ เป็นประมุข * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีสติ เป็นอธิปไตย เป็นใหญ่ * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีปัญญา เป็นยอดยิ่ง * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีอมตะ เป็นที่หยังลง * -ธรรมทั้งปวง มีนิพพาน เป็นที่จบ

หลักธรรมชุดนี้ สื่อสารได้ชัดเจนว่า ระบบการ “ปฏิบัติ” ของพระพุทธศาสนานี้ มีจะพัฒนากุศลได้ตั้งแต่ต้นจนถึงจุดหมาย ขอให้สังเกตที่ “ฉันทะ” ที่เป็นหลักธรรมตั้งต้น เชื่อมโยงไปถึงพระนิพพาน “ฉันทะ” นี้ย่อมกล่าวถึงธรรมไม่ใช่อกุศล แต่เป็นธรรมที่เป็นกุศล พัฒนาต่อเนื่องไปถึง สมาธิ-สติ-ปัญญา ได้

สำคัญคือ ความพอใจในธรรม ความรัก ความสนใจใฝ่ดีที่จะพัฒนาตัว เป็นจุดหมุดหมายเริ่มต้นของพุทธธรรม ยิ่งปฏิบัติไป ยิ่งก่อตัวเป็นธรรมที่ใหญ่ขึ้น มีคุณภาพขึ้น และเมื่อถึงจุดหมาย ความสิ้นทุกข์ก็จะเกิดมี เป็นลำดับขั้นตอนอย่างนี้ไม่เคยเปลี่ยนแปลง

——

ตัณหากลัวยาก กลัวลำบาก เมื่อปัญญารู้ว่าดี มีประโยชน์ ถึงยาก ถึงลำบาก ก็ไม่กลัว

——

อาศรมขันติสาร ๑๓ ตุลาคม ๒๕๖๖

แหล่งที่มา #Phramaha Fookij Jutipanyo

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

Will not live in a pod.
Will not eat the bugs.
Will not get the chip.
Will not get a blue check.
Will not use CBDCs.

Live Free or Die.

Why did Elon buy twitter for $44 Billion? What value does he see in it besides the greater influence that undoubtedly comes with controlling one of the largest social platforms in the world? We do not need to speculate - he made his intentions incredibly clear in his first meeting with twitter employees after his takeover - WeChat of the West.

To those that do not appreciate freedom, the value prop is clear - WeChat is incredibly powerful and successful in China.

To those that do appreciate freedom, the concern is clear - WeChat has essentially become required to live in China, has surveillance and censorship integrated at its core, and if you are banned from the app your entire livelihood is at risk. Employment, housing, payments, travel, communication, and more become extremely difficult if WeChat censors determine you have acted out of line.

The blue check is the first step in Elon's plan to bring the chinese social credit score system to the west. Users who verify their identity are rewarded with more reach and better tools than those that do not. Verified users are the main product of Elon's twitter - an extensive database of individuals and complete control of the tools he will slowly get them to rely on - it is easier to monetize cattle than free men.

If you cannot resist the temptation of the blue check in its current form you have already lost - what comes next will be much darker. If you realize the need to resist - freedom tech provides us options.

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

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"Privacy is necessary for an open society in the electronic age. Privacy is not secrecy.  A private matter is something one doesn't want the whole world to know, but a secret matter is something one doesn't want anybody to know. Privacy is the power to selectively reveal oneself to the world." - Eric Hughes, A Cypherpunk's Manifesto, 1993

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Privacy is essential to freedom. Without privacy, individuals are unable to make choices free from surveillance and control. Lack of privacy leads to loss of autonomy. When individuals are constantly monitored it limits our ability to express ourselves and take risks. Any decisions we make can result in negative repercussions from those who surveil us. Without the freedom to make choices, individuals cannot truly be free.

Freedom is essential to acquiring and preserving wealth. When individuals are not free to make choices, restrictions and limitations prevent us from economic opportunities. If we are somehow able to acquire wealth in such an environment, lack of freedom can result in direct asset seizure by governments or other malicious entities. At scale, when freedom is compromised, it leads to widespread economic stagnation and poverty. Protecting freedom is essential to economic prosperity.

The connection between privacy, freedom, and wealth is critical. Without privacy, individuals lose the freedom to make choices free from surveillance and control. While lack of freedom prevents individuals from pursuing economic opportunities and makes wealth preservation nearly impossible. No Privacy? No Freedom. No Freedom? No Wealth.

Rights are not granted. They are taken and defended. Rights are often misunderstood as permission to do something by those holding power. However, if someone can give you something, they can inherently take it from you at will. People throughout history have necessarily fought for basic rights, including privacy and freedom. These rights were not given by those in power, but rather demanded and won through struggle. Even after these rights are won, they must be continually defended to ensure that they are not taken away. Rights are not granted - they are earned through struggle and defended through sacrifice.

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The newly proposed RESTRICT ACT - is being advertised as a TikTok Ban, but is much broader than that, carries a $1M Fine and up to 20 years in prison️! It is unconstitutional and would create massive legal restrictions on the open source movement and free speech throughout the internet.

The Bill was proposed by: Senator Warner, Senator Thune, Senator Baldwin, Senator Fischer, Senator Manchin, Senator Moran, Senator Bennet, Senator Sullivan, Senator Gillibrand, Senator Collins, Senator Heinrich, and Senator Romney. It has broad support across Senators of both parties.

Corrupt politicians will not protect us. They are part of the problem. We must build, support, and learn how to use censorship resistant tools in order to defend our natural rights.

The RESTRICT Act, introduced by Senators Warner and Thune, aims to block or disrupt transactions and financial holdings involving foreign adversaries that pose risks to national security. Although the primary targets of this legislation are companies like Tik-Tok, the language of the bill could potentially be used to block or disrupt cryptocurrency transactions and, in extreme cases, block Americans’ access to open source tools or protocols like Bitcoin.

The Act creates a redundant regime paralleling OFAC without clear justification, it significantly limits the ability for injured parties to challenge actions raising due process concerns, and unlike OFAC it lacks any carve-out for protected speech. COINCENTER ON THE RESTRICT ACT

Full Text of Bill

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Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.

— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022

Good morning.

It looks like PacWest will fail today. It will be both the fifth largest bank failure in US history and the sixth major bank to fail this year. It will likely get purchased by one of the big four banks in a government orchestrated sale.  

March 8th - Silvergate Bank
March 10th - Silicon Valley Bank
March 12th - Signature Bank
March 19th - Credit Suisse
May 1st - First Republic Bank
May 4th - PacWest Bank?

PacWest is the first of many small regional banks that will go under this year. Most will get bought by the big four in gov orchestrated sales. This has been the playbook since 2008. Follow the incentives. Massive consolidation across the banking industry. PacWest gonna be a drop in the bucket compared to what comes next.

First, a hastened government led bank consolidation, then a public/private partnership with the remaining large banks to launch a surveilled and controlled digital currency network. We will be told it is more convenient. We will be told it is safer. We will be told it will prevent future bank runs. All of that is marketing bullshit. The goal is greater control of money. The ability to choose how we spend it and how we save it. If you control the money - you control the people that use it.

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Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.

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If you missed my nostr introduction post you can find it here. My nostr account can be found here.

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We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted on a centralized social platform it will usually be posted by someone to nostr.

We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted exclusively to nostr it is cross posted by someone to various centralized social platforms.

We are nearly at the point that you can recommend a cross platform app that users can install and easily onboard without additional guides or resources.

As companies continue to build walls around their centralized platforms nostr posts will be the easiest to cross reference and verify - as companies continue to censor their users nostr is the best censorship resistant alternative - gradually then suddenly nostr will become the standard. 🫡

Current Nostr Stats

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Influencers would have you believe there is an ongoing binance bank run but bitcoin wallet data says otherwise.

- binance wallets are near all time highs
- bitfinex wallets are also trending up
- gemini and coinbase are being hit with massive withdrawals though

You should not trust custodians, they can rug you without warning. It is incredibly important you learn how to hold bitcoin yourself, but also consider not blindly trusting influencers with a ref link to shill you.

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People forget Bear Stearns failed March 2008 - months of denial followed before the public realized how bad the situation was under the surface.

Similar happening now but much larger scale. They did not fix fundamental issues after 2008 - everything is more fragile.

The Fed preemptively bailed out every bank with their BTFP program and First Republic Bank still failed. The second largest bank failure in history.

There will be more failures. There will be more bailouts. Depositors will be "protected" by socializing losses across everyone.

Our President and mainstream financial pundits are currently pretending the banking crisis is over while most banks remain insolvent. There are going to be many more bank failures as this ponzi system unravels.

Unlike 2008, we have the ability to opt out of these broken and corrupt institutions by using bitcoin. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk - you do not have to trust a bank or other centralized entity to hold it for you. Bitcoin is also incredibly difficult to change by design since it is not controlled by an individual, company, or government - the supply of dollars will inevitably be inflated to bailout these failing banks but bitcoin supply will remain unchanged. I do not need to convince you that bitcoin provides value - these next few years will convince millions.

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@ 502ab02a:a2860397

มีคนจำนวนไม่น้อยที่เข้าใจว่าเรื่อง “อาหารแห่งอนาคต” คืออะไรที่เพิ่งเกิด เป็นแนวคิดใหม่สำหรับโลกยุคใหม่ แต่จริงๆ แล้วไม่ใช่เลยครับ เฮียว่าเราถูกจัดโต๊ะอาหารอนาคตไว้ให้กินมานานมากแล้ว เพียงแต่ไม่รู้ตัว ต่างหาก

ช่วงปลายคริสต์ศตวรรษที่ 19 สิ่งที่เรียกว่าการ “ควบคุมอาหารมวลชน” ก็เริ่มต้นอย่างจริงจังแล้ว

ย้อนกลับไปปี 1863 ในห้องพักคนไข้ของโรงพยาบาล Battle Creek Sanitarium ที่รัฐมิชิแกน สหรัฐฯ มีชายคนหนึ่งชื่อ John Harvey Kellogg เขาเป็นหมอและเป็นหนึ่งในสาวกของกลุ่ม Seventh-day Adventist ที่เชื่อว่าการกินเนื้อสัตว์ทำให้คนกระด้างใจและเต็มไปด้วยตัณหา เกิดราคะ เขาจึงคิดค้น “อาหารเช้าที่ไม่มีเนื้อ” เพื่อส่งเสริมสุขลักษณะและลดกิเลสในร่างกายมนุษย์ สิ่งที่เขาทำในตอนนั้นคือการใช้ข้าวโพดบดอบแห้งจนกรอบ กลายเป็นสิ่งที่เรียกว่า “ซีเรียล” ในยุคเริ่มต้น ซึ่งภายหลังน้องชายของเขาคือ Will Keith Kellogg จะนำสูตรนั้นไปพัฒนาให้หวานขึ้น ใส่น้ำตาลเพิ่ม ใส่โฆษณาเพิ่ม แล้วก็วางขายในชื่อแบรนด์ Kellogg’s ที่เราเห็นกันทุกเช้านั่นแหละ เขาผลิตคอร์นเฟลกขึ้นมาด้วยความเชื่อว่าจะช่วยลดการช่วยตัวเองในวัยรุ่นได้! จากอาหารของกลุ่มศาสนา คอร์นเฟลกกลายเป็นอาหารที่เข้าสู่ครัวเรือนอเมริกันภายใต้แนวคิดว่า “อาหารเช้าคือมื้อสำคัญที่สุดของวัน” โดยไม่ได้มีหลักฐานรองรับอย่างจริงจังเลย

ช่วงต้นศตวรรษที่ 20 เป็นยุคที่อเมริกาเริ่มมีอำนาจในเชิงอุตสาหกรรมมากขึ้น แต่ก็เป็นยุคที่คนยังทำอาหารกินเองอยู่ในครัว เรื่องอาหารยังเป็นเรื่องของบ้าน ไม่ใช่ของแบรนด์ ยังไม่มีใครนึกว่า “สิทธิ์ในการกิน” จะกลายเป็นสินค้าสาธารณะในภายหลัง แต่แล้วก็เกิดจุดเปลี่ยนสำคัญเมื่อสงครามโลกครั้งที่ 1 และ 2 ทำให้รัฐจำเป็นต้องคิดเรื่องการเลี้ยงประชากรในภาวะขาดแคลน ต้องมีการเก็บอาหารได้นาน ขนส่งได้ง่าย และต้นทุนต่ำ นี่คือจุดเริ่มต้นของการผลักดัน “อาหารแปรรูป” หรือ processed food อย่างเป็นทางการ

ในปี 1911 มีบริษัทชื่อว่า Procter & Gamble เปิดตัว “Crisco” ซึ่งเป็นน้ำมันพืชไฮโดรเจนเนตที่ถูกออกแบบมาเพื่อเลียนแบบไขมันสัตว์ในราคาถูกกว่า Crisco ทำจากน้ำมันฝ้าย (cottonseed oil) ซึ่งตอนนั้นเป็นของเหลือจากอุตสาหกรรมสิ่งทอ ไม่มีใครคิดว่ามันจะกลายเป็นสิ่งที่ถูกโฆษณาว่า “ดีกว่าไขมันสัตว์” แต่เพราะการโฆษณาแบบมืออาชีพและการจับมือกับสมาคมแพทย์ Crisco ก็กลายเป็นของคู่ครัวแบบไม่รู้ตัว นี่คือจุดเริ่มต้นของ fiat fat ไขมันเทียมที่ถูกสถาปนาให้เป็นของจริง ทั้งที่จริงๆ มันคือของปลอมที่ห่อด้วยวิทยาศาสตร์ครึ่งใบ

ช่วงปี 1910s ถึง 1930s คือยุคที่อุตสาหกรรมอาหารเริ่มโตเต็มที่ สหรัฐฯ เริ่มผลิต นมข้นหวาน สำหรับทหารในสงครามกลางเมือง และต่อยอดใช้ในสงครามโลกครั้งที่ 1 นมชนิดนี้เก็บได้นาน ไม่เน่า และมีพลังงานสูง ทหารหลายคนติดใจในรสชาติหวานมันแบบไม่มีอะไรเทียบได้ ซึ่งต่อมาทำให้มันกลายเป็นวัตถุดิบหลักในหลายเมนูทั่วโลก รวมถึง “ชาเย็น” บ้านเราที่ต้องมีนมข้นหวานเท่านั้นถึงจะใช่

เข้าสู่ช่วง สงครามโลกครั้งที่ 2 (1939–1945) คือช่วงหัวเลี้ยวหัวต่อสำคัญของ Fiat Food หรืออาหารที่ถูกผลิตจากตรรกะจำเป็นเชิงยุทธศาสตร์มากกว่าธรรมชาติ เฮียว่าช่วงนี้มันเหมือนโรงเรียนประถมของ Ultra-Processed Food สมัยใหม่เลยล่ะ ตัวอย่างชัดเจนคือ Spam เนื้อหมูกระป๋องที่ออกแบบให้ทหารพกพาสะดวก ไม่ต้องแช่เย็น เก็บได้นาน และอุดมด้วยโซเดียม หลังสงครามจบ มันกลายเป็นอาหารยอดฮิตในประเทศที่เคยเป็นแนวหน้า เช่น ฮาวาย เกาหลี ฟิลิปปินส์ และอังกฤษ โดยถูกโฆษณาว่าเป็น “ของดีจากอเมริกา” ทั้งที่ทหารหลายคนก็เบื่อมันจนเอียน

ในช่วงเดียวกันนั้นเอง ช็อกโกแลต Hershey's ก็ถูกพัฒนาเป็น “Field Ration D” หรือแท่งช็อกโกแลตพลังงานสูงที่ไม่ละลายในอุณหภูมิสูง สำหรับแจกให้ทหารทุกคนคนละแท่งติดตัวไว้ในสนามรบ พอสงครามจบ Hershey’s ก็ปรับสูตรให้กินง่ายขึ้น แล้วขายในเชิงพาณิชย์จนกลายเป็นแบรนด์ระดับโลกแบบที่เราเห็นทุกวันนี้

โพรเซสชีส เช่น Kraft และ Velveeta ก็ถูกออกแบบให้เก็บได้นานไม่เน่า ชีสพวกนี้ผสมสารอิมัลซิไฟเออร์ ทำให้ไม่แยกชั้นเมื่อถูกความร้อน เหมาะกับการผลิตอาหารจำนวนมากแบบโรงครัวทหาร เมื่อสงครามจบ Kraft เอาเทคโนโลยีนี้มาทำ “ชีสแผ่น” สำหรับเบอร์เกอร์และแซนด์วิช เป็นต้นแบบของอาหารฟาสต์ฟู้ดยุคใหม่แบบไร้กลิ่นชีสแท้

นมผง และ ไขมันพืชไฮโดรจิเนต ก็เริ่มเข้ามามีบทบาทในสงคราม โดยนมผงแทนที่นมสดในสนามรบ และไขมันพืชใช้ทำเบเกอรี่โดยไม่ต้องใช้เนยสด ซึ่งแพงกว่า หลังสงคราม สารให้ความหวานเทียมอย่าง ซัคคาริน ก็เริ่มถูกนำเสนอว่าเหมาะกับคนลดน้ำหนัก ทั้งที่มันมีจุดเริ่มจากความจำเป็นยามขาดแคลนน้ำตาลในสงคราม

ปี 1950s-1960s โลกเข้าสู่ยุคสงครามเย็น เทคโนโลยีการเก็บอาหารพัฒนาไปพร้อมกับเทคโนโลยีอวกาศ และหนึ่งในผลิตภัณฑ์ระดับตำนานคือ Tang น้ำส้มผงของบริษัท General Foods ที่ถูกส่งขึ้นไปพร้อมนักบินอวกาศ John Glenn ในปี 1962 Tang กลายเป็นสัญลักษณ์ของ “อนาคตในแก้วน้ำ” ทั้งที่ไม่มีผลไม้จริงเลยสักหยดเดียว แต่การตลาดที่อ้างว่า NASA ใช้ ทำให้มันขายดีระเบิด

ในระหว่างนั้น ปี 1955 ประธานาธิบดีไอเซนฮาวร์หัวใจวายกลางสนามกอล์ฟ เป็นจุดเปลี่ยนอีกครั้งที่โลกเริ่มหันมาสนใจ “ไขมัน” ว่าอาจเป็นผู้ร้าย ทำให้ชายคนหนึ่งชื่อ Ancel Keys เสนอทฤษฎี “ไขมันคือเหตุแห่งโรคหัวใจ” พร้อมกับงานศึกษาที่ชื่อ Seven Countries Study ซึ่งต่อมาจะกลายเป็นที่มาของ “พีระมิดอาหาร” ในปี 1977 โดย USDA ในยุคของวุฒิสมาชิก George McGovern ทฤษฎีนี้ถูกวิจารณ์ภายหลังว่าตั้งต้นด้วยการ “เลือกข้อมูล” ที่สนับสนุนสมมุติฐานของตัวเอง และเมินประเทศที่ข้อมูลไม่เข้าเป้าออกไปเฉยๆ แล้วก็ปั้นพีระมิดที่บอกว่า คาร์โบไฮเดรตอยู่ฐานล่างสุด กินได้เยอะๆ ส่วนไขมันให้อยู่บนสุด กินน้อยๆ นี่คือการพลิกอำนาจอาหารครั้งใหญ่ที่สุดในศตวรรษ อาหารไม่ใช่สิ่งที่มาจากพื้นดิน แต่เป็นสิ่งที่มาจากกระดาษนโยบาย

ช่วงนี้แหละครับที่จุดเปลี่ยนที่ใหญ่สุดมาถึง เมื่อรัฐบาลสหรัฐประกาศใช้นโยบายอาหารใหม่โดยอิงกับคำแนะนำของ USDA ซึ่งภายหลังถูกเปิดโปงว่าปิรามิดอาหารที่ใช้จริงนั้น ผ่านการปรับจากต้นฉบับโดยนักวิทยาศาสตร์อย่างหนักเพื่อ “จัดสรรพื้นที่” ให้กับอาหารที่มี lobby สูง เช่น ข้าว ซีเรียล พาสต้า และน้ำมันพืช โดยให้ไขมันสัตว์ถูกตัดทิ้งไปเป็นตัวอันตราย เฮียว่าโมเมนต์นี้แหละคือจุดที่ "ฟู้ดฟิคชั่น" กลายเป็น "ฟู้ดโพย" สำหรับคนทั้งโลก

ระหว่างที่ USDA กำลังยึดพีระมิดอยู่นั้น อุตสาหกรรมอาหารแปรรูปก็กำลังเข้มข้นแบบใส่สปีดโบ๊ทเข้าไปอีก ข้าวโพดกลายเป็นพืชเศรษฐกิจอันดับหนึ่งของสหรัฐฯ ไม่ใช่เพราะคนกินข้าวโพดกันเยอะ แต่เพราะมันกลายเป็นวัตถุดิบของทุกอย่าง ตั้งแต่ high-fructose corn syrup ในน้ำอัดลม ยันฟิลเลอร์ในไส้กรอก และอาหารสัตว์ในฟาร์มปศุสัตว์ เชนร้านอาหารอย่าง McDonald’s ก็เริ่มเปลี่ยนมันฝรั่งทอดจากไขมันเนื้อวัวมาใช้น้ำมันพืชในยุค 1980s เพราะแรงกดดันจากกลุ่มต่อต้านไขมันอิ่มตัว ทั้งที่รสชาติเปลี่ยนและสุขภาพก็ไม่ได้ดีขึ้น

ปี 1980s-1990s เกิดสิ่งที่เฮียอยากเรียกว่า “การปฏิวัติแบบเนียน” คือผู้คนเริ่มเชื่อว่าอาหารแปรรูปคือความก้าวหน้า และอาหารธรรมชาตินั้นล้าหลัง วงการโภชนาการยังคงถูกขับเคลื่อนด้วยความเชื่อว่าคาร์บคือของดี ไขมันคือผู้ร้าย และโปรตีนต้องมาจากพืช บริษัทใหญ่ๆ อย่าง Nestlé, PepsiCo, และ Unilever เริ่มเข้าซื้อแบรนด์อาหารสุขภาพ พร้อมผลิตเวย์เทียม โปรตีนพืช และอาหารเสริมแทนอาหารจริง พร้อมแนวคิด “Meal Replacement” ที่เน้นขายแทนกิน เขาไม่ได้แค่นำเสนอสินค้า แต่พยายามกำหนดแนวคิดเรื่อง “อาหารเพื่อสุขภาพ” แบบที่คนทั่วไปไม่ต้องคิดเอง ขอแค่เชื่อฉลาก กับดูโลโก้รูปหัวใจสีเขียวก็พอ

ก่อนจะเข้าสู่ศตวรรษใหม่ในปี 2000 โลกก็เริ่มเห็นวี่แววของสิ่งที่เรียกว่า “อาหารแห่งอนาคต” อีกครั้ง ไม่ใช่เพราะเทคโนโลยีใหม่อย่างเดียว แต่เพราะระบบอาหารเดิมถูกบิดเบือนจนธรรมชาติเสียศูนย์ อาหารจริงถูกตีตราว่าอันตราย ส่วนอาหารสังเคราะห์ถูกสร้างเรื่องเล่าว่า "สะอาดกว่า ปลอดภัยกว่า และเป็นคำตอบของโลกอนาคต" ซึ่งในมุมของเฮีย มันคือการสืบทอดวิธีคิดแบบเดียวกับสมัยสงคราม คือการบังคับให้กินของที่ผลิตได้มาก ราคาถูก เก็บได้นาน โดยไม่สนว่าร่างกายต้องการหรือไม่ และทั้งหมดก็กลับมาที่จุดเดิม — การออกแบบอาหารให้เหมาะกับระบบ มากกว่าจะออกแบบระบบให้เหมาะกับร่างกายมนุษย์

นี่แหละเฮียถึงอยากเล่าซีรีส์ “อาหารอนาคต” เพราะในความจริงมันไม่ใช่อนาคตอะไรเลย แต่มันคืออดีตที่ถูกเล่าใหม่ด้วยคำพูดที่ฟังดูเท่ แต่ซ่อนไว้ด้วยตรวนของการควบคุมสิทธิในการกินของมนุษย์ เอาของปลอมมาสวมรอยธรรมชาติ แล้วทำให้เรารู้สึกผิดถ้าจะกินไขมันสัตว์ กินเนื้อ กินไข่ หรือไม่กินอาหารเช้าที่เต็มไปด้วยน้ำตาล เฮียว่า ถ้าไม่เล่าเรื่องพวกนี้ให้คนรู้ทัน ก็เหมือนปล่อยให้ลูกหลานกินอาหารที่ไม่มีใครรู้ว่า “ใครเป็นคนเขียนสูตรให้พวกเขากิน”

ดังนั้น ถ้าเราจะพูดถึง “อาหารแห่งอนาคต” เฮียว่า เราต้องกล้ากลับไปถามว่า อนาคตที่ว่านั่น ใครกันเป็นคนออกแบบ? แล้วเราอยู่ตรงไหนของโต๊ะ?

#pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.

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If you missed my nostr introduction post you can find it here. My nostr account can be found here.

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We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted on a centralized social platform it will usually be posted by someone to nostr.

We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted exclusively to nostr it is cross posted by someone to various centralized social platforms.

We are nearly at the point that you can recommend a cross platform app that users can install and easily onboard without additional guides or resources.

As companies continue to build walls around their centralized platforms nostr posts will be the easiest to cross reference and verify - as companies continue to censor their users nostr is the best censorship resistant alternative - gradually then suddenly nostr will become the standard. 🫡

Current Nostr Stats

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.

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If you missed my nostr introduction post you can find it here. My nostr account can be found here.

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We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted on a centralized social platform it will usually be posted by someone to nostr.

We are nearly at the point that if something interesting is posted exclusively to nostr it is cross posted by someone to various centralized social platforms.

We are nearly at the point that you can recommend a cross platform app that users can install and easily onboard without additional guides or resources.

As companies continue to build walls around their centralized platforms nostr posts will be the easiest to cross reference and verify - as companies continue to censor their users nostr is the best censorship resistant alternative - gradually then suddenly nostr will become the standard. 🫡

Current Nostr Stats

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

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Microsoft Cloud hiring to "implement global small modular reactor and microreactor" strategy to power data centers: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-cloud-hiring-to-implement-global-small-modular-reactor-and-microreactor-strategy-to-power-data-centers/

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

Humanity's Natural State Is Chaos
Without order there is chaos. Humans competing with each other for scarce resources naturally leads to conflict until one group achieves significant power and instates a "monopoly on violence."

Power Brings Stability
Power has always been the key means to achieve stability in societies. Centralized power can be incredibly effective in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, and social unrest efficiently. Unfortunately this power is often abused and corrupted.

Centralized Power Breeds Tyranny
Centralized power often leads to tyrannical rule. When a select few individuals hold control over a society, they tend to become corrupted. Centralized power structures often lack accountability and transparency, and rely too heavily on trust.

Distributed Power Cultivates Freedom
New technology that empowers individuals provide us the ability to rebuild societies from the bottom up. Strong individuals that can defend and provide for themselves will help build strong local communities on a similar foundation. The result is power being distributed throughout society rather than held by a select few.

In the short term, relying on trust and centralized power is an easy answer to mitigating chaos, but freedom tech tools provide us the ability to build on top of much stronger distributed foundations that provide stability while also cultivating individual freedom.

The solution starts with us. Empower yourself. Empower others. A grassroots freedom tech movement scaling one person at a time.

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

Will not live in a pod.
Will not eat the bugs.
Will not get the chip.
Will not get a blue check.
Will not use CBDCs.

Live Free or Die.

Why did Elon buy twitter for $44 Billion? What value does he see in it besides the greater influence that undoubtedly comes with controlling one of the largest social platforms in the world? We do not need to speculate - he made his intentions incredibly clear in his first meeting with twitter employees after his takeover - WeChat of the West.

To those that do not appreciate freedom, the value prop is clear - WeChat is incredibly powerful and successful in China.

To those that do appreciate freedom, the concern is clear - WeChat has essentially become required to live in China, has surveillance and censorship integrated at its core, and if you are banned from the app your entire livelihood is at risk. Employment, housing, payments, travel, communication, and more become extremely difficult if WeChat censors determine you have acted out of line.

The blue check is the first step in Elon's plan to bring the chinese social credit score system to the west. Users who verify their identity are rewarded with more reach and better tools than those that do not. Verified users are the main product of Elon's twitter - an extensive database of individuals and complete control of the tools he will slowly get them to rely on - it is easier to monetize cattle than free men.

If you cannot resist the temptation of the blue check in its current form you have already lost - what comes next will be much darker. If you realize the need to resist - freedom tech provides us options.

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

What is KYC/AML?

• The acronym stands for Know Your Customer / Anti Money Laundering.
• In practice it stands for the surveillance measures companies are often compelled to take against their customers by financial regulators.
• Methods differ but often include: Passport Scans, Driver License Uploads, Social Security Numbers, Home Address, Phone Number, Face Scans.
• Bitcoin companies will also store all withdrawal and deposit addresses which can then be used to track bitcoin transactions on the bitcoin block chain.
• This data is then stored and shared. Regulations often require companies to hold this information for a set number of years but in practice users should assume this data will be held indefinitely. Data is often stored insecurely, which results in frequent hacks and leaks.  
• KYC/AML data collection puts all honest users at risk of theft, extortion, and persecution while being ineffective at stopping crime. Criminals often use counterfeit, bought, or stolen credentials to get around the requirements. Criminals can buy "verified" accounts for as little as $200. Furthermore, billions of people are excluded from financial services as a result of KYC/AML requirements.

During the early days of bitcoin most services did not require this sensitive user data, but as adoption increased so did the surveillance measures. At this point, most large bitcoin companies are collecting and storing massive lists of bitcoiners, our sensitive personal information, and our transaction history.

Lists of Bitcoiners

KYC/AML policies are a direct attack on bitcoiners. Lists of bitcoiners and our transaction history will inevitably be used against us.

Once you are on a list with your bitcoin transaction history that record will always exist. Generally speaking, tracking bitcoin is based on probability analysis of ownership change. Surveillance firms use various heuristics to determine if you are sending bitcoin to yourself or if ownership is actually changing hands.  You can obtain better privacy going forward by using collaborative transactions such as coinjoin to break this probability analysis.

Fortunately, you can buy bitcoin without providing intimate personal information. Tools such as peach, hodlhodl, robosats, azteco and bisq help; mining is also a solid option: anyone can plug a miner into power and internet and earn bitcoin by mining privately.

You can also earn bitcoin by providing goods and/or services that can be purchased with bitcoin. Long term, circular economies will mitigate this threat: most people will not buy bitcoin - they will earn bitcoin - most people will not sell bitcoin - they will spend bitcoin.

There is no such thing as KYC or No KYC bitcoin, there are bitcoiners on lists and those that are not on lists.

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

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"Privacy is necessary for an open society in the electronic age. Privacy is not secrecy.  A private matter is something one doesn't want the whole world to know, but a secret matter is something one doesn't want anybody to know. Privacy is the power to selectively reveal oneself to the world." - Eric Hughes, A Cypherpunk's Manifesto, 1993

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Privacy is essential to freedom. Without privacy, individuals are unable to make choices free from surveillance and control. Lack of privacy leads to loss of autonomy. When individuals are constantly monitored it limits our ability to express ourselves and take risks. Any decisions we make can result in negative repercussions from those who surveil us. Without the freedom to make choices, individuals cannot truly be free.

Freedom is essential to acquiring and preserving wealth. When individuals are not free to make choices, restrictions and limitations prevent us from economic opportunities. If we are somehow able to acquire wealth in such an environment, lack of freedom can result in direct asset seizure by governments or other malicious entities. At scale, when freedom is compromised, it leads to widespread economic stagnation and poverty. Protecting freedom is essential to economic prosperity.

The connection between privacy, freedom, and wealth is critical. Without privacy, individuals lose the freedom to make choices free from surveillance and control. While lack of freedom prevents individuals from pursuing economic opportunities and makes wealth preservation nearly impossible. No Privacy? No Freedom. No Freedom? No Wealth.

Rights are not granted. They are taken and defended. Rights are often misunderstood as permission to do something by those holding power. However, if someone can give you something, they can inherently take it from you at will. People throughout history have necessarily fought for basic rights, including privacy and freedom. These rights were not given by those in power, but rather demanded and won through struggle. Even after these rights are won, they must be continually defended to ensure that they are not taken away. Rights are not granted - they are earned through struggle and defended through sacrifice.

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

People forget Bear Stearns failed March 2008 - months of denial followed before the public realized how bad the situation was under the surface.

Similar happening now but much larger scale. They did not fix fundamental issues after 2008 - everything is more fragile.

The Fed preemptively bailed out every bank with their BTFP program and First Republic Bank still failed. The second largest bank failure in history.

There will be more failures. There will be more bailouts. Depositors will be "protected" by socializing losses across everyone.

Our President and mainstream financial pundits are currently pretending the banking crisis is over while most banks remain insolvent. There are going to be many more bank failures as this ponzi system unravels.

Unlike 2008, we have the ability to opt out of these broken and corrupt institutions by using bitcoin. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk - you do not have to trust a bank or other centralized entity to hold it for you. Bitcoin is also incredibly difficult to change by design since it is not controlled by an individual, company, or government - the supply of dollars will inevitably be inflated to bailout these failing banks but bitcoin supply will remain unchanged. I do not need to convince you that bitcoin provides value - these next few years will convince millions.

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.

— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022

Good morning.

It looks like PacWest will fail today. It will be both the fifth largest bank failure in US history and the sixth major bank to fail this year. It will likely get purchased by one of the big four banks in a government orchestrated sale.  

March 8th - Silvergate Bank
March 10th - Silicon Valley Bank
March 12th - Signature Bank
March 19th - Credit Suisse
May 1st - First Republic Bank
May 4th - PacWest Bank?

PacWest is the first of many small regional banks that will go under this year. Most will get bought by the big four in gov orchestrated sales. This has been the playbook since 2008. Follow the incentives. Massive consolidation across the banking industry. PacWest gonna be a drop in the bucket compared to what comes next.

First, a hastened government led bank consolidation, then a public/private partnership with the remaining large banks to launch a surveilled and controlled digital currency network. We will be told it is more convenient. We will be told it is safer. We will be told it will prevent future bank runs. All of that is marketing bullshit. The goal is greater control of money. The ability to choose how we spend it and how we save it. If you control the money - you control the people that use it.

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@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

The former seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.

The latter's future remains to be seen. Dependence on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.

— ODELL (@ODELL) October 27, 2022

The Basics

• Lightning is a protocol that enables cheap and fast native bitcoin transactions.
• At the core of the protocol is the ability for bitcoin users to create a payment channel with another user.
• These payment channels enable users to make many bitcoin transactions between each other with only two on-chain bitcoin transactions: the channel open transaction and the channel close transaction.
• Essentially lightning is a protocol for interoperable batched bitcoin transactions.
• It is expected that on chain bitcoin transaction fees will increase with adoption and the ability to easily batch transactions will save users significant money.
• As these lightning transactions are processed, liquidity flows from one side of a channel to the other side, on chain transactions are signed by both parties but not broadcasted to update this balance.
• Lightning is designed to be trust minimized, either party in a payment channel can close the channel at any time and their bitcoin will be settled on chain without trusting the other party.

There is no 'Lightning Network'

• Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise.
• There are many lightning channels between many different users and funds can flow across interconnected channels as long as there is a route through peers.
• If a lightning transaction requires multiple hops it will flow through multiple interconnected channels, adjusting the balance of all channels along the route, and paying lightning transaction fees that are set by each node on the route.

Example: You have a channel with Bob. Bob has a channel with Charlie. You can pay Charlie through your channel with Bob and Bob's channel with User C.

• As a result, it is not guaranteed that every lightning user can pay every other lightning user, they must have a route of interconnected channels between sender and receiver.

Lightning in Practice

• Lightning has already found product market fit and usage as an interconnected payment protocol between large professional custodians.
• They are able to easily manage channels and liquidity between each other without trust using this interoperable protocol.
• Lightning payments between large custodians are fast and easy. End users do not have to run their own node or manage their channels and liquidity. These payments rarely fail due to professional management of custodial nodes.
• The tradeoff is one inherent to custodians and other trusted third parties. Custodial wallets can steal funds and compromise user privacy.

Sovereign Lightning

• Trusted third parties are security holes.
• Users must run their own node and manage their own channels in order to use lightning without trusting a third party. This remains the single largest friction point for sovereign lightning usage: the mental burden of actively running a lightning node and associated liquidity management.
• Bitcoin development prioritizes node accessibility so cost to self host your own node is low but if a node is run at home or office, Tor or a VPN is recommended to mask your IP address: otherwise it is visible to the entire network and represents a privacy risk.
• This privacy risk is heightened due to the potential for certain governments to go after sovereign lightning users and compel them to shutdown their nodes. If their IP Address is exposed they are easier to target.
• Fortunately the tools to run and manage nodes continue to get easier but it is important to understand that this will always be a friction point when compared to custodial services.

The Potential Fracture of Lightning

• Any lightning user can choose which users are allowed to open channels with them.
• One potential is that professional custodians only peer with other professional custodians.
• We already see nodes like those run by CashApp only have channels open with other regulated counterparties. This could be due to performance goals, liability reduction, or regulatory pressure.

• Fortunately some of their peers are connected to non-regulated parties so payments to and from sovereign lightning users are still successfully processed by CashApp but this may not always be the case going forward.

Summary

• Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise. There is no singular 'Lightning Network' but rather many payment channels between distinct peers, some connected with each other and some not.
• Lightning as an interoperable payment protocol between professional custodians seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.
• Lightning as a robust sovereign payment protocol has yet to be battle tested. Heavy reliance on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, the friction of active liquidity management, significant on chain fee burden for small amounts, interactivity constraints on mobile, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.

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If you have never used lightning before, use this guide to get started on your phone.

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

a delicious meditation

Those of you who know me are aware that I worked in the fast-food industry before becoming a chiropractor. My first job was at a Hardee's restaurant when I was fifteen.

I wanted to buy a car, which is why I started working. Once I bought the car, I realized I needed to continue working to maintain it, pay for gas, insurance, and the occasional "going out" money.

In the restaurant business, if you work at a place long enough, someone hands you a set of keys and puts you in charge of something.

So here I was, running a restaurant and in charge of a bunch of people, when I could barely take care of myself. Anyway, I was making what I thought was decent money for a 19-year-old.

My bosses started a new restaurant venture, and little by little, they began poaching the old management staff from Hardee’s. Eventually, they asked me to come work for them.

My new job was running a Church's Chicken. The stores were small, mostly takeout. The menu was small, and we didn't have many employees to manage. We didn't have a good reputation in the community due to poor management.

The owners introduced new registers, and sales immediately jumped. I suppose all the food was now being rung up and accounted for!

We cleaned up the restaurant and made sure we were putting out a good product, and guess what?

Sales doubled.

So here I am, thinking I know what I'm doing because I'm getting recognition from my bosses.

I didn't have the interpersonal skills to manage people effectively.

One time, I got into it with an employee but couldn't confront him to fire him, so I deleted him from the time clock. Let someone else deal with that.

Dealing with customers was usually okay because if they had an issue, you could just fix the problem, and that was it. Handling employees was a bit more challenging for me.

On busy days-Fridays, Saturdays, and Mother's Day (they called that the day after the welfare checks came out)

The restaurant would get so busy that sometimes people would line up around the building, and I felt that everyone was staring at me, which made me feel uncomfortable.

The store had windows all around; it was like a fishbowl-everyone saw everything.

I could have gone to hide in the office, but I needed to help out. I liked to run a tight ship labor-wise, so I always counted myself as one of the staff needed.

I would ask the cook to let me make the chicken and assign them some other tasks.

Even though I was probably even more visible than before, I would get lost in the work.

Everything was hand-breaded and battered. To me, it was like a Japanese tea ceremony.

When it was busy, we cooked a full "stove," which was 4 chickens at a time:

8 legs, 8 thighs, 8 wings, and 8 breasts.

The process was:

• Flour, dip in batter, flour again.

• Start with the legs because they take the longest to cook.

• Continue until everything is in the fryer.

Repeat,

and repeat,

and repeat.

I would get lost in the work. You couldn't really rush things. I made sure everything was done by the book.

Focusing on one task so intently that every concern, every worry just faded away. I knew people were watching me cook the chicken in this fishbowl, but I was so engrossed in my task that I didn’t care.

All my stress and anxiety just faded.

I still try to lose myself in my work, only now it’s not frying chicken-it’s adjusting spines.

Now that I think about it, same situation. I’m “on stage” in my adjusting space with clients sitting in the waiting area.

Sometimes, I get stressed when there are a lot of people waiting on me…but I’m gonna do my best work frying this chi…

oops!

I mean adjusting this spine.

Zen teaching often emphasizes simplicity, mindfulness in daily activities, and the notion that enlightenment can be achieved in the ordinary moments of life. The phrase "chop wood, carry water" reflects this idea of finding the sacred in the mundane.

I found my Zen.

Find Yours.

❤️

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

The former seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.

The latter's future remains to be seen. Dependence on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.

— ODELL (@ODELL) October 27, 2022

The Basics

• Lightning is a protocol that enables cheap and fast native bitcoin transactions.
• At the core of the protocol is the ability for bitcoin users to create a payment channel with another user.
• These payment channels enable users to make many bitcoin transactions between each other with only two on-chain bitcoin transactions: the channel open transaction and the channel close transaction.
• Essentially lightning is a protocol for interoperable batched bitcoin transactions.
• It is expected that on chain bitcoin transaction fees will increase with adoption and the ability to easily batch transactions will save users significant money.
• As these lightning transactions are processed, liquidity flows from one side of a channel to the other side, on chain transactions are signed by both parties but not broadcasted to update this balance.
• Lightning is designed to be trust minimized, either party in a payment channel can close the channel at any time and their bitcoin will be settled on chain without trusting the other party.

There is no 'Lightning Network'

• Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise.
• There are many lightning channels between many different users and funds can flow across interconnected channels as long as there is a route through peers.
• If a lightning transaction requires multiple hops it will flow through multiple interconnected channels, adjusting the balance of all channels along the route, and paying lightning transaction fees that are set by each node on the route.

Example: You have a channel with Bob. Bob has a channel with Charlie. You can pay Charlie through your channel with Bob and Bob's channel with User C.

• As a result, it is not guaranteed that every lightning user can pay every other lightning user, they must have a route of interconnected channels between sender and receiver.

Lightning in Practice

• Lightning has already found product market fit and usage as an interconnected payment protocol between large professional custodians.
• They are able to easily manage channels and liquidity between each other without trust using this interoperable protocol.
• Lightning payments between large custodians are fast and easy. End users do not have to run their own node or manage their channels and liquidity. These payments rarely fail due to professional management of custodial nodes.
• The tradeoff is one inherent to custodians and other trusted third parties. Custodial wallets can steal funds and compromise user privacy.

Sovereign Lightning

• Trusted third parties are security holes.
• Users must run their own node and manage their own channels in order to use lightning without trusting a third party. This remains the single largest friction point for sovereign lightning usage: the mental burden of actively running a lightning node and associated liquidity management.
• Bitcoin development prioritizes node accessibility so cost to self host your own node is low but if a node is run at home or office, Tor or a VPN is recommended to mask your IP address: otherwise it is visible to the entire network and represents a privacy risk.
• This privacy risk is heightened due to the potential for certain governments to go after sovereign lightning users and compel them to shutdown their nodes. If their IP Address is exposed they are easier to target.
• Fortunately the tools to run and manage nodes continue to get easier but it is important to understand that this will always be a friction point when compared to custodial services.

The Potential Fracture of Lightning

• Any lightning user can choose which users are allowed to open channels with them.
• One potential is that professional custodians only peer with other professional custodians.
• We already see nodes like those run by CashApp only have channels open with other regulated counterparties. This could be due to performance goals, liability reduction, or regulatory pressure.

• Fortunately some of their peers are connected to non-regulated parties so payments to and from sovereign lightning users are still successfully processed by CashApp but this may not always be the case going forward.

Summary

• Many people refer to the aggregate of all lightning channels as 'The Lightning Network' but this is a false premise. There is no singular 'Lightning Network' but rather many payment channels between distinct peers, some connected with each other and some not.
• Lightning as an interoperable payment protocol between professional custodians seems to have found solid product market fit. Expect significant volume, adoption, and usage going forward.
• Lightning as a robust sovereign payment protocol has yet to be battle tested. Heavy reliance on Tor, which has had massive reliability issues, the friction of active liquidity management, significant on chain fee burden for small amounts, interactivity constraints on mobile, and lack of strong privacy guarantees put it at risk.

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If you have never used lightning before, use this guide to get started on your phone.

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@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

Shopping for groceries is one of my least favorite tasks. However, it's got to be done.

If I am in a hurry, I like to shop at Aldi, not only because they have decent prices but also because I can get in and out quickly (and I don’t have to scan my own groceries).

They are definitely no-frills in many ways: You have to bag your own groceries, you should bring your own bags—otherwise, you have to buy them, and to get a shopping cart, you need a quarter to unlock it.

I'm trying to rush and be efficient when I realize I don’t have "the quarter" for the shopping cart!

Dammit!

I’m going to have to go back to the car to see if I have one.

I'm swearing under my breath, thinking about having to walk all the way back when…

I notice someone has placed a quarter on the wall next to the row of carts.

THANK YOU!

This little act of kindness took me from a state of "being mildly annoyed at the entire world because traffic didn’t clear a path in front of me trying to get here" to feeling great gratitude.

The fact that someone considered that doing this would make my life easier knocked my selfish, self-involved ass out of my body.

I finished my shopping in a more cheerful, mindful way. The people in the aisles didn't seem to annoy me as much.

I took way longer than usual.

It wasn't a race anymore.

I checked out, loaded the car, and when I went to return the cart—

I left a quarter.

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

Bank run on every crypto bank then bank run on every "real" bank.

— ODELL (@ODELL) December 14, 2022

The four main banks of bitcoin and “crypto” are Signature, Prime Trust, Silvergate, and Silicon Valley Bank. Prime Trust does not custody funds themselves but rather maintains deposit accounts at BMO Harris Bank, Cross River, Lexicon Bank, MVB Bank, and Signature Bank. Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank have already stopped withdrawals. More banks will go down before the chaos stops. None of them have sufficient reserves to meet withdrawals.

Bitcoin gives us all the ability to opt out of a system that has massive layers of counterparty risk built in, years of cheap money and broken incentives have layered risk on top of risk throughout the entire global economy. If you thought the FTX bank run was painful to watch, I have bad news for you: every major bank in the world is fractional reserve. Bitcoin held in self custody is unique in its lack of counterparty risk, as global market chaos unwinds this will become much more obvious.

The rules of bitcoin are extremely hard to change by design. Anyone can access the network directly without a trusted third party by using their own node. Owning more bitcoin does not give you more control over the network with all participants on equal footing.

Bitcoin is:
- money that is not controlled by a company or government
- money that can be spent or saved without permission
- money that is provably scarce and should increase in purchasing power with adoption

Bitcoin is money without trust. Whether you are a nation state, corporation, or an individual, you can use bitcoin to spend or save without permission. Social media will accelerate the already deteriorating trust in our institutions and as this trust continues to crumble the value of trust minimized money will become obvious. As adoption increases so should the purchasing power of bitcoin.

A quick note on "stablecoins," such as USDC - it is important to remember that they rely on trusted custodians. They have the same risk as funds held directly in bank accounts with additional counterparty risk on top. The trusted custodians can be pressured by gov, exit scam, or caught up in fraud. Funds can and will be frozen at will. This is a distinctly different trust model than bitcoin, which is a native bearer token that does not rely on any centralized entity or custodian.

Most bitcoin exchanges have exposure to these failing banks. Expect more chaos and confusion as this all unwinds. Withdraw any bitcoin to your own wallet ASAP.

Simple Self Custody Guide: https://werunbtc.com/muun
More Secure Cold Storage Guide: https://werunbtc.com/coldcard

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@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

We were just talking today about first impressions when meeting people. Sometimes I get an instant “dislike” to someone upon meeting, even though they have never done or said anything bad to me. The older I get, the more I will usually go with my gut instincts and not engage the person any deeper if possible.

One of the reasons that was brought up is that people who are not congruent with their words, thoughts, and actions are usually the ones that “turn me off”

You know these people, too. They are the ones with all the advice-yet their lives are in shambles, the “preachy” ones that have their closets full of skeletons.

I’ve been accused of “not having a filter” or “being too transparent” at times… but not usually about my stance on things. I’m not confrontational…but I’m not above turning around and wailing away from someone I can’t stomach.

Anyway, the purpose of this rambling post if to encourage you to drop the facade, if you have one-and be more yourself.

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Life Insurer, Meanwhile, Becomes First Company to Publish Audited Financials Denominated in Bitcoin

Meanwhile Insurance Bitcoin (Bermuda) Limited (“Meanwhile”) announced it has become the first company in the world to release externally audited financial statements denominated entirely in Bitcoin. According to the announcement, the company reported 220.4 BTC in assets and 25.29 BTC in net income for 2024, a 300% year over year increase.

Today marks a global first & historic event for us, along with the public release of our 2024 audited financial statements, covering our 1st year of sales.

As the 1st company in the world to have Bitcoin-denominated financial statements externally audited, we are excited to…

— meanwhile | Bitcoin Life Insurance (@meanwhilelife) June 5, 2025

“We’ve just made history as the first company in the world to have Bitcoin-denominated financial statements externally audited,” said Zac Townsend, CEO of Meanwhile. “This is an important, foundational step in reimagining the financial system based on a single, global, decentralized standard outside the control of any one government.” 

The financial statements were audited by Harris & Trotter LLP and its digital asset division ht.digital. Meanwhile’s financials also comply with Bermuda’s Insurance Act 1978, noting that their BTC denominated financials were approved and comply with official guidelines. The firm, fully licensed by the Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA), operates entirely in BTC and is prohibited from liquidating Bitcoin assets except through policyholder claims, positioning it as a long term holder. 

“As the first regulated Bitcoin life insurance company, we view the BTC held by Meanwhile as inherently long-term in nature—primarily held to support the Company’s insurance liabilities over decades,” Townsend added. “This makes it significantly ‘stickier’ and resistant to market pressures compared to the BTC held by other companies as part of their treasury management strategies.” 

Meanwhile’s 2024 financials also revealed 23.02 BTC in net premiums and 4.35 BTC in investment income, showing that its model not only preserves Bitcoin, but earns it. The company’s reserves (also held in BTC) were reviewed and approved by Willis Towers Watson (WTW). 

Meanwhile also offers a Bitcoin Whole Life insurance product that allows policyholders to save, borrow, and build legacy wealth—entirely in BTC, and has plans to expand globally in 2025.

“We are incredibly proud of today’s news as it underscores how Meanwhile is at the forefront of the next phase of the convergence between Bitcoin and institutional financial markets,” said Tia Beckmann, CFO of Meanwhile. “Now having generated net income in BTC, we have demonstrated that we are earning it through a sustainable insurance business model designed for the long term.” 

This post Bitcoin Life Insurer, Meanwhile, Becomes First Company to Publish Audited Financials Denominated in Bitcoin first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Jenna Montgomery.

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV ratio, remains one of the most reliable on-chain indicators for identifying local and macro tops and bottoms across every BTC cycle. By isolating data across different investor cohorts and adapting historical benchmarks to modern market conditions, we can generate more accurate insights into where Bitcoin may be headed next.

The Bitcoin MVRV Ratio

The MVRV Ratio compares Bitcoin’s market price to its realized price, essentially the average cost basis for all coins in the network. As of writing, BTC trades around $105,000 while the realized price floats near $47,000, putting the raw MVRV at 2.26. The Z-Score version of MVRV standardizes this ratio based on historical volatility, enabling clearer comparisons across different market cycles.

Figure 1: Historically, the MVRV Ratio and the MVRV Z-Score have accurately identified cycle peaks and bottoms. View Live Chart

Short-Term Holders

Short-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less, currently have a realized price near $97,000. This metric often acts as dynamic support in bull markets and resistance in bear markets. Notably, when the Short Term Holder MVRV hits 1.33, local tops have historically occurred, as seen several times in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. So far in the current cycle, this threshold has already been touched four times, each followed by modest retracements.

Figure 2: Short Term Holder MVRV reaching 1.33 in more recent cycles has aligned with local tops. View Live Chart

Long-Term Holders

Long-term holders, who’ve held BTC for more than 155 days, currently have an average cost basis of just $33,500, putting their MVRV at 3.11. Historically, Long Term Holder MVRV values have reached as high as 12 during major peaks. That said, we’re observing a trend of diminishing multiples each cycle.

Figure 3: Achieving a Long Term Holder MVRV value of 8 could extrapolate to a BTC price in excess of $300,000. View Live Chart

A key resistance band now sits between 7.5 and 8.5, a zone that has defined bull tops and pre-bear retracements in every cycle since 2011. If the current growth of the realized price ($40/day) continues for another 140–150 days, matching previous cycle lengths, we could see it reach somewhere in the region of $40,000. A peak MVRV of 8 would imply a price near $320,000.

A Smarter Market Compass

Unlike static all-time metrics, the 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score adapts to evolving market dynamics. By recalculating average extremes over a rolling window, it smooths out Bitcoin’s natural volatility decay as it matures. Historically, this version has signaled overbought conditions when reaching levels above 3, and prime accumulation zones when dipping below -1. Currently sitting under 1, this metric suggests that substantial upside remains.

Figure 4: The current 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score suggests more positive price action ahead. View Live Chart

Timing & Targets

A view of the BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows chart illustrates that BTC is now approximately 925 days removed from its last major cycle low. Historical comparisons to previous bull markets suggest we may be around 140 to 150 days away from a potential top, with both the 2017 and 2021 peaks occurring around 1,060 to 1,070 days after their respective lows. While not deterministic, this alignment reinforces the broader picture of where we are in the cycle. If realized price trends and MVRV thresholds continue on current trajectories, late Q3 to early Q4 2025 may bring final euphoric moves.

Figure 5: Will the current cycle continue to exhibit growth patterns similar to those of the previous two cycles? View Live Chart

Conclusion

The MVRV ratio and its derivatives remain essential tools for analyzing Bitcoin market behavior, providing clear markers for both accumulation and distribution. Whether observing short-term holders hovering near local top thresholds, long-term holders nearing historically significant resistance zones, or adaptive metrics like the 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score signaling plenty of runway left, these data points should be used in confluence.

No single metric should be relied upon to predict tops or bottoms in isolation, but taken together, they offer a powerful lens through which to interpret the macro trend. As the market matures and volatility declines, adaptive metrics will become even more crucial in staying ahead of the curve.

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

@matt_odell don't you even dare not ask about nostr!

— Kukks (Andrew Camilleri) (@MrKukks) May 18, 2021

Nostr first hit my radar spring 2021: created by fellow bitcoiner and friend, fiatjaf, and released to the world as free open source software. I was fortunate to be able to host a conversation with him on Citadel Dispatch in those early days, capturing that moment in history forever. Since then, the protocol has seen explosive viral organic growth as individuals around the world have contributed their time and energy to build out the protocol and the surrounding ecosystem due to the clear need for better communication tools.

nostr is to twitter as bitcoin is to paypal

As an intro to nostr, let us start with a metaphor:

twitter is paypal - a centralized platform plagued by censorship but has the benefit of established network effects

nostr is bitcoin - an open protocol that is censorship resistant and robust but requires an organic adoption phase

Nostr is an open communication protocol that can be used to send messages across a distributed set of relays in a censorship resistant and robust way.
 - Anyone can run a relay.
 - Anyone can interact with the protocol.
 - Relays can choose which messages they want to relay.
 - Users are identified by a simple public private key pair that they can generate themselves.

Nostr is often compared to twitter since there are nostr clients that emulate twitter functionality and user interface but that is merely one application of the protocol. Nostr is so much more than a mere twitter competitor. Nostr clients and relays can transmit a wide variety of data and clients can choose how to display that information to users. The result is a revolution in communication with implications that are difficult for any of us to truly comprehend.

Similar to bitcoin, nostr is an open and permissionless protocol. No person, company, or government controls it. Anyone can iterate and build on top of nostr without permission. Together, bitcoin and nostr are incredibly complementary freedom tech tools: censorship resistant, permissionless, robust, and interoperable - money and speech protected by code and incentives, not laws.

As censorship throughout the world continues to escalate, freedom tech provides hope for individuals around the world who refuse to accept the status quo. This movement will succeed on the shoulders of those who choose to stand up and contribute. We will build our own path. A brighter path.

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My Nostr Public Key: npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx

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@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

I’m a Chiropractor, Writer, Travel Nerd, Lover of Efficiency, Trekker and a Celebrity in Mexican Restaurants Hi, I’m Danny DeReuter, and I want to save the world. I’m an occasional writer-I’ve written some stuff.

Sometimes people think I’m funny. Maybe some time I’ll come up with a bit of courage and try my hand at stand-up. (seriously, that’s a thing on my vision board)

I’ve become somewhat of a social media expert managing my online presence. I help show people how to do social media more effectively.

I’m also a speaker. I prefer to speak on topics that I’m passionate about-like natural health, chiropractic, and social media. I also have a Podcast. Be nice and you can ask me to speak at your event.

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

Big day for me today: - @k00b convinced me to try OMAD. I did eat more than once today, but it was all within a four hour period. I'll try to tighten that up further tomorrow. - @gnilma and @398ja convinced me to try a cold shower. I eased into it, by starting it warm and gradually turning down the temperature. That was totally manageable.

How did you do today? What do you need to work on tomorrow?

https://stacker.news/items/1001161