@ dfa02707:41ca50e3

Contribute to keep No Bullshit Bitcoin news going.

• RoboSats v0.7.7-alpha is now available!

NOTE: "This version of clients is not compatible with older versions of coordinators. Coordinators must upgrade first, make sure you don't upgrade your client while this is marked as pre-release."

• This version brings a new and improved coordinators view with reviews signed both by the robot and the coordinator, adds market price sources in coordinator profiles, shows a correct warning for canceling non-taken orders after a payment attempt, adds Uzbek sum currency, and includes package library updates for coordinators.

Source: RoboSats.

• siggy47 is writing daily RoboSats activity reviews on stacker.news. Check them out here.
• Stay up-to-date with RoboSats on Nostr.

What's new

• New coordinators view (see the picture above).
• Available coordinator reviews signed by both the robot and the coordinator.
• Coordinators now display market price sources in their profiles.

Source: RoboSats.

• Fix for wrong message on cancel button when taking an order. Users are now warned if they try to cancel a non taken order after a payment attempt.
• Uzbek sum currency now available.
• For coordinators: library updates.
• Add docker frontend (#1861).
• Add order review token (#1869).
• Add UZS migration (#1875).
• Fixed tests review (#1878).
• Nostr pubkey for Robot (#1887).

New contributors

• @hexlorn made their first contribution in #1858.
• @umk0m1qk made their first contribution in #1864.

Full Changelog: v0.7.6-alpha...v0.7.7-alpha

GitHub Repo

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

Wall Street is warming up to Bitcoin and getting closer and closer to it.

Cantor Fitzgerald, one of the oldest and most respected investment banks on Wall Street, has launched a $2 billion bitcoin-backed lending program.

They’ve reportedly already done their first deals, lending to two big digital asset companies: FalconX and Maple Finance.

This is a big step in connecting traditional finance to the fast-moving world of Bitcoin.

Cantor’s new service allows big investors, hedge funds and asset managers, to borrow money using bitcoin as collateral.

This is a game changer for institutions that hold bitcoin, as they can now access liquidity without having to sell their assets.

“Institutions holding bitcoin are looking to broaden their access to diverse funding sources,” said Christian Wall, co-CEO and global head of fixed income at Cantor Fitzgerald.

“And we are excited to support their liquidity needs to help them drive long term growth and success.”

The loans are not speculative or unsecured.

They are structured like traditional finance deals, backed by the borrower’s bitcoin. This reduces the risk for Cantor while giving bitcoin-holding companies new ways to grow and operate.

The first recipients of Cantor’s lending program are FalconX, a digital asset brokerage, and Maple Finance, a blockchain-based lending platform.

FalconX confirmed they secured a credit facility of over $100 million. Maple Finance also received the first tranche of their loan from Cantor.

This comes at a time when the bitcoin lending space is recovering after a tough period. Several big firms went under in 2022 and investor confidence was shaken.

Now with traditional finance on board, bitcoin-backed lending has returned. According to Galaxy Research the total size of the digital asset lending market grew to $36.5 billion in Q4 2024.

Cantor’s move into bitcoin-backed lending isn’t new. They announced their plans in July 2024 and have been building their presence in the Bitcoin space since then.

Earlier this year, they partnered with Tether, SoftBank and Bitfinex to launch Twenty One Capital, a $3.6 billion fund to buy over 42,000 bitcoin.

In May 2025 Cantor Equity Partners merged with Twenty One Capital and bought nearly $459 million worth of bitcoin.

They also own around $1.9 billion in shares of Strategy, a company that holds a lot of bitcoin. Clearly Cantor believes in bitcoin as a long-term asset.

Cantor is also a big player in the stablecoin space.

They manage U.S. Treasury reserves for Tether, the company behind the $142 billion USDT stablecoin. This adds another layer of trust and credibility to Cantor’s digital asset involvement.

To secure the bitcoin used as collateral, Cantor has partnered with digital asset custodians Anchorage Digital and Copper.co.

These companies are known for their robust security and institutional-grade infrastructure. Cantor hasn’t disclosed loan terms or interest rates but confirmed the lending will follow current regulations.

This also shows how traditional financial players are embracing DeFi.

Maple Finance for example allows undercollateralized lending using blockchain. By backing companies like Maple, Cantor is innovating while still having control and compliance.

For years, bitcoin-backed loans were only available through digital-asset-native companies like Genesis, BlockFi, and Ledn.

These loans were mostly for smaller clients and retail investors. But with Cantor’s entry, the scale and professionalism of bitcoin lending are expanding.

@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

I’ve always gravitated to ideas and topics that are not quite mainstream:

Well, like CHIROPRACTIC.

But even in chiropractic school, I went fringe. I heard about one of the technique clubs (Toftness) that showed you how you could detect a subluxation by just rubbing your thumb over a piece of plexiglass.

We were discussing that in a group, and most of my friends were saying:

“What a load of shit!”

And that made my ears perk up.

So I started going to the club meetings.

I walk in, and there’s a guy face down on a chiropractic table while another guy was holding what looked like some sort of cyberpunk lens. He started rubbing it and worked it down the guy's spine.

He pointed out areas that were subluxated:

“Here.”

And going further down:

“Here.”

And:

“Here.”

Wow.

Then he “adjusted” by touching the spine with his index finger.

My mind was blown.

So you mean I didn’t have to be adjusted the way Harvey Fish did?

Dr. Fish was a great guy and would adjust students for, I think, $10. You’d go in, wait to see if he had any “real patients.” In between patients, he would adjust the students. He was heavy-handed and sure as hell able to move a bone.

So now I’m intrigued and curious. I studied and practiced any chance I had. I had different friends that I studied different things with.

(Except for Dyslexic Dave - nobody wanted to study with that guy. Our group did once, and we all failed a test. His dyslexia was so powerful, it overcame all of us.)

I’d study all the weird stuff with my friend Victoria, and then we would go get our network chiropractic adjustment from Dr. Michael Scimeca.

I found out that it wasn’t the Toftness lens that had the super-powers. Instead, it was because when your hand detected a change in energy over the spinal segments, there's a “galvanic response” similar to that of a polygraph lie detector test. So it made the skin on my hand “sweat,” and that made the plexiglass squeak and stick.

So it wasn’t the equipment. It was me.

After a while, I realized that I could feel a warmth on my chest right before the lens squeaked. So, I ditched the lens and started working on people where I “felt” the subluxations were located.

Seemed to work well - I always double-checked my “regular” chiropractic findings with what I felt. We studied for exams, then practiced technique on each other.

One time at a seminar, the instructor demonstrated what to do and asked for volunteers - one to be the patient and the other to be the doctor. I watched this guy struggling with his patient. It looked like he had flippers instead of hands; the whole interaction was super awkward.

All of a sudden, I started feeling uncomfortable and just blurted out:

“For God’s sake, leave him alone! Can’t you tell he is super annoyed and angry?”

Oops.

The instructor said, “Yes, maybe we should take a break.”

The guy that was the patient came up to me and asked, “How did you know?”

“I don’t know, I just felt it,” I said.

After that I started trying to see if I could feel what others were feeling. So when I was bored in a class, I’d go down the rows and try to feel what the my fellow students felt and quickly move on.

Going down the row: nothing, nothing nothing. This guy is pissed off, next one: nothing, nothing, Ow! She has a headache.

Dammit! Now I have a headache!

So that turned into a problem: When I worked on someone that had pain or other symptoms, I would take those on for myself. And the person I worked on would leave feeling great.

My friend Juanita did what is called an "attunement," and I became a Reiki Master.

Reiki masters are supposed to move energy around, but I was afraid I’d pick up too much of someone’s vibe and it would make me uncomfortable.

Plus, I can’t be doing energy work if I’m a chiropractor now.

So I kept all that checked and on the "down low"; sometimes I would get a "feeling" about a client while I was working on them. Surprisingly, it was always correct and it helped my client to make progress.

At some point, I started feeling that I needed to be true to myself, and if I had these abilities and I was able to use them to help the people that came to see me, then that's what I was going to do.

I've embraced this side of my work. If my clients need some emotional work, that’s what we work on, if they need some energy work, then they get it.

I suppose some people don’t want a chiropractor that’s metaphysical, but really-that’s how it all started. There are plenty of “evidence-based” chiropractors out there that can’t adjust their way out of a paper bag.

If the power goes off, they couldn’t use their lasers or whatever machine the Chiropractic Physiotherapy Industrial Complex wants you to buy now.

While I appreciate all the fancy parties they throw for us at continuing education seminars, they are infiltrating the chiropractic schools and now we are pumping out new chiropractors that only think they will be successful if they have the latest and greatest shiny machine.

I’ve studied a bunch of different things, I’ve found what works for me and refined it.

I tell my clients :

“I’m a better chiropractor today than I was yesterday, and I was pretty good back then!”

So I guess my next step is teaching some of this information and hoping to pass it on before my time here is up.

And you know what? I will love every damn minute of it!

There's nothing quite like sharing the weird, the wonderful, and the downright strange ways we can help people heal.

So, let's get to it—I've got a lot of sharing and teaching to do—it's going to be exciting!

@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

I have a family practice where I see pretty much everything, from infants to the elderly, athletes to people with disabilities.

When someone gets good results, they always want their loved ones to benefit in the same way.

Husbands tell their wives, wives bring in their husbands...

I even had a guy bring both his wife and his girlfriend! On different days, of course.

So, sometimes we notice a little bit of drama here and there. When one of our couples divorces, someone usually gets custody of the chiropractor.

It's rare that I keep seeing both parties.

It's probably for the best, because there was this one time when a guy showed up with his new "friend" while the ex’s best friend was in the waiting area.

Well, it was like an episode of the "Jerry Springer Show" that day.

Let's get to the story:

This one guy I’d been working on started coming in more frequently, complaining of more pain, more aches, more everything.

I've been doing this for a while now, so I told him that when I see this, it's one of two things:

Either you are physically doing something to aggravate the issue,

Or you are under emotional stress.

He told me that he and his wife were having problems, and there was lots of drama.

Of course, I kept working on him. Sometimes I did some emotional work, but with men, I have to be very business-like when dealing with emotions because we don't like to deal with them.

Time passed, and they finally divorced.

He still comes in regularly, and I've noticed he has less pain and fewer issues. His visits are more like "wellness visits"; he seems in better spirits.

I thought I'd never see the ex-wife again, but she showed up today, and when I checked her, she's doing better than ever!

It got me thinking... these people are way better off divorced! They're not in constant fight-or-flight mode; I'm sure they are happier or will be. It's a positive all the way around.

I've been divorced twice. That's not something I'm proud of. I see both those divorces as failures.

I was 23 when I got married the first time. We were both super young and unprepared. We struggled for four years, and then she wanted out.

Not that I blame her; I was unhappy with myself, and my frustration and unhappiness bled into the relationship.

My second marriage lasted a lot longer than the first. After all we were older, ended up having 2 kids and I really, really tried.

I was just terrified of losing my girls. I even recall saying that I was willing to be miserable and unhappy just “for the kids”

The truth is once we separated, I probably spent more “quality time” with my daughters than I had before.

But here’s the thing in both marriages I would have willingly given up the chance to be happier with a clean end to the relationship in order to give it another shot.

At some point you just run out of shots.

I see elderly couples out at restaurants and they hardly say anything to each other. Is it because they know each other so well that they don’t need to speak, or is one of them silently praying the other one will drop dead so they will finally have a chance at happiness?

What I’m trying to say here is:

Maybe there is no hope for that relationship that you are giving CPR

Maybe it’s time to move on.

Live Long and Prosper. 🖖

@ c11cf5f8:4928464d

Howdy stackers! Here we are again with our monthly Magnificent Seven, the summary giving you a hit of what you missed in the ~AGORA territory.

First thing first. let's check our top performing post Ads!

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Top-Performing Ads

This month, the most engaging ones are:

• 01 Bitcoin Magazine Launches V3 Limited Edition Bitcoin Crocs by @RideandSmile, no description, nor images provided. The title speak for the product itself. 31 sats \ 8 comments \ 15 May

• 02 Happy Pizza Day Jerky Offer (10k sats sale 5/22 ONLY) by @beejay, celebrating Bitcoin Pizza Day with a delicious offer for a handmade product. Offer is over but it still available on her online shop and IRL at next Twin Cities Outdoor Agora Market https://stacker.news/items/972209/r/AG 103 sats \ 3 comments \ 22 May

• 03 Lard Tallow lotion by @byzantine, sharing with us one of his preferred online shops that accept sats. Here other two: a Regenerative Farm in TX https://stacker.news/items/983695/r/AG and an artisanal lite roast coffee maker https://stacker.news/items/983668/r/AG 62 sats \ 4 comments \ 20 May

• 04 Bitaxe Gamma 601 for sale by @PictureRoom selling P2P, have you shipped it yet? 121 sats \ 12 comments \ 15 May

• 05 Built An Invisible Book Stage by @kr, he did well creating some expectations for this unique and durable product earlier https://stacker.news/items/903946/r/AG 124 sats \ 4 comments \ 21 May

• 06 "₿lack Market Money" T-Shirts by T&F by @BitcoinErrorLog, that had opened his online store with plenty of incredible products, including an Anti-Surveillance clothing line https://stacker.news/items/994555/r/AG stuff never seen before! 51 sats \ 3 comments \ 24 May

• 07 [SELL] Heatpunk 002 Tee by @thebullishbitcoiner, reviving the second edition of a t-shirt dedicated to home solo miners! 79 sats \ 1 comment \ 28 May

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In case you missed

Here some interesting post, opening conversations and free speech about markets and business on the bitcoin circular economy:

• https://stacker.news/items/992449/r/AG - @Kontext is selling his beloved 2012 Jaguar XF 3.0 V6 Petrol [5M sats], great deal if paid in sats! Have you sold her?
• https://stacker.news/items/987241/r/AG - @RideandSmile shared the Freedom Issue: Letter From the Editor introducing a BM special edition
• https://stacker.news/items/999229/r/AG - @Solomonsatoshi was looking for Green Coffee Beans for DIY home roasting. Will @michaelbinary provide you some?
• https://stacker.news/items/992790/r/AG - @Rayo also introduce the P.A.Z.NIA Radio Network: 52 Hours of Liberation! An interesting livestream for all those interested in freedom.
• https://stacker.news/items/995163/r/AG welcome to @lunin, opening up on SN with Take it step by step and it will work! as part of a promising series: Founder's Thoughts. Here the second post https://stacker.news/items/999867/r/AG Startup according to Mozart

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Hey sellers! Try Auctions

A quick reminder that now you can setup auctions here in the AGORA too! Learn how. The other feature released last month was the introduction of Shopfronts on SN. Check our SN Merch and SN Zine examples. Thank you all! Let's keep these trades coming and grow the P2P Bitcoin circular economy!

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Active Professional Services accepting Bitcoin in the AGORA

Let us know if we miss any, here below the most memorable ones: - https://stacker.news/items/900208/r/AG - @unschooled offering Language Tutoring - https://stacker.news/items/813013/r/AG - @gpvansat's [OFFER][Graphic Design] From the paste editions (It's important to keep these offers available) - https://stacker.news/items/775383/r/AG - @TinstrMedia - Color Grading (Styling) Your Pictures as a Service - https://stacker.news/items/773557/r/AG - @MamaHodl, MATHS TUTOR 50K SATS/hour English global - https://stacker.news/items/684163/r/AG - @BTCLNAT's OFFER HEALTH COUNSELING [5K SAT/ consultation - https://stacker.news/items/689268/r/AG - @mathswithtess [SELL] MATHS TUTOR ONILINE, 90k sats per hour. Global but English only.

Let me know if I'm missing other stackers offering services around here!

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Lost & Found in SN' Wild West Web

Stay with me, we're not done yet! I found plenty of other deals, offers and business related conversations in other territories too...

• BITCOIN... always fucking with my head... by @thecommoner (highly recommended read!)
• The Strange Moral Relativism of "Free Trade" by @Undisciplined (another highly recommended read!)
• What makes society thrive? by @aljaz
• Drop or proxy shipping services that take sats? by @lv99slacker
• Custom Bitcoin Nodes by @anon
• 23 Bitcoin Merch Shops That Sell Shirts For Sats by @hyperfree
• How to create an e-commerce website? by @Bitcoiner1
• Can You Outperform an Apple Tree? by @kr
• B2B Businesses in Bitcoin by @telcobert

Oh boy! Such exciting month! Now our latest weekly appointments:

🏷️ Spending Sunday

(LIVE TODAY) Share your most recent Bitcoin purchases of just check what other stackers are buying with their sats! Today's one open at https://stacker.news/items/1000477/r/AG

All series available here:

🤝 Sellers & Business Club

(UPCOMING EVERY TUESDAY) Here https://stacker.news/items/998773/r/AG wanted to introduce this new series, dedicated to our most active sellers^1. A room to talk about growing business and sales. You will join?

📢 Thursday Talks: What have you sold for Bitcoin this week?

It is losing a bit of momentum, but it will still be opening every week for anyone interested to share sales tips, deals and offers around the Wild West Web! Latest one here https://stacker.news/items/997767/r/AG

Thanks all for reading until here, now... 🫡 Closing remarks as usual. See ya!

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Create your Ads now!

Looking to start something new? Hit one of the links below to free your mind:

• 💬 TOPIC for conversation,
• [⚖️ SELL] anything! or,
• if you're looking for something, hit the [🛒 BUY]!
• [🧑‍💻 HIRE] any bitcoiner skill or stuff from bitcoiners
• [🖇 OFFER] any product or service and stack more sats
• [🧑‍⚖️ AUCTION] to let stackers decide a fair price for your item
• [🤝 SWAP] if you're looking to exchange anything with anything else
• [🆓 FREE] your space, make a gift!
• Start your own [SHOPFRONT] or simply...
• [⭐ REVIEW] any bitcoin product or LN service you recently bought or subscribed to.

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Or contact @AGORA team on nostr DM, and we can help you publish a personalized post.

. #nostr #bitcoin #stuff4sats #sell #buy #plebchain #grownostr #asknostr #market #business

https://stacker.news/items/1000715

@ 97c70a44:ad98e322

Vibe coding is taking the nostr developer community by storm. While it's all very exciting and interesting, I think it's important to pump the brakes a little - not in order to stop the vehicle, but to try to keep us from flying off the road as we approach this curve.

In this note Pablo is subtweeting something I said to him recently (although I'm sure he's heard it from other quarters as well):

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp75cf0tahv5z7plpdeaws7ex52nmnwgtwfr2g3m37r844evqrr6jqy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qghwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46z7qg6waehxw309ac8junpd45kgtnxd9shg6npvchxxmmd9uqzq0z48d4ttzzkupswnkyt5a2xfkhxl3hyavnxjujwn5k2k529aearwtecp4

There is a naive, curmudgeonly case for simply "not doing AI". I think the intuition is a good one, but the subject is obviously more complicated - not doing it, either on an individual or a collective level, is just not an option. I recently read Tools for Conviviality by Ivan Illich, which I think can help us here. For Illich, the best kind of tool is one which serves "politically interrelated individuals rather than managers".

This is obviously a core value for bitcoiners. And I think the talks given at the Oslo Freedom Forum this year present a compelling case for adoption of LLMs for the purposes of 1. using them for good, and 2. developing them further so that they don't get captured by corporations and governments. Illich calls both the telephone and print "almost ideally convivial". I would add the internet, cryptography, and LLMs to this list, because each one allows individuals to work cooperatively within communities to embody their values in their work.

But this is only half the story. Illich also points out how "the manipulative nature of institutions... have put these ideally convivial tools at the service of more [managerial dominance]."

Preventing the subversion and capture of our tools is not just a matter of who uses what, and for which ends. It also requires an awareness of the environment that the use of the tool (whether for virtuous or vicious ends) creates, which in turn forms the abilities, values, and desires of those who inhabit the environment.

The natural tendency of LLMs is to foster ignorance, dependence, and detachment from reality. This is not the fault of the tool itself, but that of humans' tendency to trade liberty for convenience. Nevertheless, the inherent values of a given tool naturally gives rise to an environment through use: the tool changes the world that the tool user lives in. This in turn indoctrinates the user into the internal logic of the tool, shaping their thinking, blinding them to the tool's influence, and neutering their ability to work in ways not endorsed by the structure of the tool-defined environment.

The result of this is that people are formed by their tools, becoming their slaves. We often talk about LLM misalignment, but the same is true of humans. Unreflective use of a tool creates people who are misaligned with their own interests. This is what I mean when I say that AI use is anti-human. I mean it in the same way that all unreflective tool use is anti-human. See Wendell Berry for an evaluation of industrial agriculture along the same lines.

What I'm not claiming is that a minority of high agency individuals can't use the technology for virtuous ends. In fact, I think that is an essential part of the solution. Tool use can be good. But tools that bring their users into dependence on complex industry and catechize their users into a particular system should be approached with extra caution. The plow was a convivial tool, and so were early tractors. Self-driving John Deere monstrosities are a straightforward extension of the earlier form of the technology, but are self-evidently an instrument of debt slavery, chemical dependency, industrial centralization, and degradation of the land. This over-extension of a given tool can occur regardless of the intentions of the user. As Illich says:

There is a form of malfunction in which growth does not yet tend toward the destruction of life, yet renders a tool antagonistic to its specific aims. Tools, in other words, have an optimal, a tolerable, and a negative range.

The initial form of a tool is almost always beneficial, because tools are made by humans for human ends. But as the scale of the tool grows, its logic gets more widely and forcibly applied. The solution to the anti-human tendencies of any technology is an understanding of scale. To prevent the overrun of the internal logic of a given tool and its creation of an environment hostile to human flourishing, we need to impose limits on scale.

Tools that require time periods or spaces or energies much beyond the order of corresponding natural scales are dysfunctional.

My problem with LLMs is:

• Not their imitation of human idioms, but their subversion of them and the resulting adoption of robotic idioms by humans
• Not the access they grant to information, but their ability to obscure accurate or relevant information
• Not their elimination of menial work, but its increase (Bullshit Jobs)
• Not their ability to take away jobs, but their ability to take away the meaning found in good work
• Not their ability to confer power to the user, but their ability to confer power to their owner which can be used to exploit the user
• Not their ability to solve problems mechanistically, but the extension of their mechanistic value system to human life
• Not their explicit promise of productivity, but the environment they implicitly create in which productivity depends on their use
• Not the conversations they are able to participate in, but the relationships they displace

All of these dysfunctions come from the over-application of the technology in evaluating and executing the fundamentally human task of living. AI work is the same kind of thing as an AI girlfriend, because work is not only for the creation of value (although that's an essential part of it), but also for the exercise of human agency in the world. In other words, tools must be tools, not masters. This is a problem of scale - when tool use is extended beyond its appropriate domain, it becomes what Illich calls a "radical monopoly" (the domination of a single paradigm over all of human life).

So the important question when dealing with any emergent technology becomes: how can we set limits such that the use of the technology is naturally confined to its appropriate scale?

Here are some considerations:

• Teach people how to use the technology well (e.g. cite sources when doing research, use context files instead of fighting the prompt, know when to ask questions rather than generate code)
• Create and use open source and self-hosted models and tools (MCP, stacks, tenex). Refuse to pay for closed or third-party hosted models and tools.
• Recognize the dependencies of the tool itself, for example GPU availability, and diversify the industrial sources to reduce fragility and dependence.
• Create models with built-in limits. The big companies have attempted this (resulting in Japanese Vikings), but the best-case effect is a top-down imposition of corporate values onto individuals. But the idea isn't inherently bad - a coding model that refuses to generate code in response to vague prompts, or which asks clarifying questions is an example. Or a home assistant that recognized childrens' voices and refuses to interact.
• Divert the productivity gains to human enrichment. Without mundane work to do, novice lawyers, coders, and accountants don't have an opportunity to hone their skills. But their learning could be subsidized by the bots in order to bring them up to a level that continues to be useful.
• Don't become a slave to the bots. Know when not to use it. Talk to real people. Write real code, poetry, novels, scripts. Do your own research. Learn by experience. Make your own stuff. Take a break from reviewing code to write some. Be independent, impossible to control. Don't underestimate the value to your soul of good work.
• Resist both monopoly and "radical monopoly". Both naturally collapse over time, but by cultivating an appreciation of the goodness of hand-crafted goods, non-synthetic entertainment, embodied relationship, and a balance between mobility and place, we can relegate new, threatening technologies to their correct role in society.

I think in all of this is implicit the idea of technological determinism, that productivity is power, and if you don't adapt you die. I reject this as an artifact of darwinism and materialism. The world is far more complex and full of grace than we think.

The idea that productivity creates wealth is, as we all know, bunk. GDP continues to go up, but ungrounded metrics don't reflect anything about the reality of human flourishing. We have to return to a qualitative understanding of life as whole, and contextualize quantitative tools and metrics within that framework.

Finally, don't believe the hype. Even if AI delivers everything it promises, conservatism in changing our ways of life will decelerate the rate of change society is subjected to and allow time for reflection and proper use of the tool. Curmudgeons are as valuable as technologists. There will be no jobspocalypse if there is sufficient political will to value human good over mere productivity. It's ok to pump the breaks.

@ 41fa852b:af7b7706

"The poison was never forced - it was offered gently, until you forgot it was poison at all." - Mark Twain

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Happy Sunday, folks.

Below is your weekly roundup of events for the coming week.

Added to the event section this week, an exciting new Scottish Bitcoin Conference, happening in August.

Check out all the details below.

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This week's sponsor is…

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Upcoming Bitcoin Meetups

Happening this week…

1. Dundee Bitcoin: Join them on the 2nd Monday of every month from 17:30 to 20:30 PM at The Wine Press, 16 Shore Terrace, Dundee DD1 3DN. This month's meetup is on Monday 9th. 🍻

2. Canterbury Bitcoin: Meeting this month at the The Dolphin Pub in Canterbury at 7 PM on Tuesday the 10th of June. An informal meetup to discuss Bitcoin and chat. 🍺

3. Glasgow Bitcoin: Meetups are held every second Wednesday of the month. This is a place for people in and around Glasgow to discuss Bitcoin. 18:00 - 23:00 at The Piper Bar, G1 1HL. This month on Wednesday 11th. 🍻

4. St Albans: This is a new meetup happening on the second Wednesday of each month. This month, it's from 19:00 to 22:00 on the 11th at the Robin Hood of St Albans, Victoria St, St Albans. 🍻

5. Children of Riddim - Festival - Bitcoin Stage: Children of Riddim Festival is bringing Bitcoin to the big stage from the 12th--16th June in Hemel Hempstead, with 150+ DJs, artists, and speakers. The Barn of Freedom will host Bitcoin talks, music, and Nostr-powered apps. Tickets and donations for the stage can be made via geyser.fund, with camping included. Acts/speakers include Joe Bryan, Metamick, Roger9000, Angor, and more. 🎉🪩

6. Bitcoin Beach Bournemouth: Every second Thursday of the month at Chaplins Cellar Bar. 529 Christchurch Road, Boscombe, United. You'll find them in the Cogg Room at 19:30. This month it's the 12th. 🍺

7. Bury St Edmunds Bitcoin: is reviving the medieval spirit of the Folkmoot, one Bitcoin meetup at a time. Their second gathering takes place this Friday at 17:30 at Edmundo Lounge. They've also just launched a brand new website.

8. Stoke Bitcoin Meetup: The Stoke Bitcoin meetup is back! They will have Bitcoin coffee to taste, delivered by hand directly from the mountains of El Salvador and grown by @lacruzboss in Berlin, El Salvador. 15:00 on Friday 13th. ☕️🍻

9. Bitcoin Walk - Edinburgh: Every Saturday they walk around Arthur's Seat in this historic city. Join them at 12 pm to chat about all things Bitcoin and keep fit. 🚶🏽‍♂️🚶🏼‍♀️🚶🏻

10. Bitcoin East: Join Bitcoin East in Bury St. Edmunds on Sunday 15th, 12:00 at Hopsters Bar, Felixstowe. All welcome, Bitcoiners and anyone else curious about Bitcoin. 🍺

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New Businesses Accepting Bitcoin

This week we have…

• Core Agency: A creative communications firm that blends financial expertise with bold storytelling to help businesses in finance and beyond stand out. Based in the UK, they specialise in strategic planning, brand identity, content production, and public relations, delivering everything from investor-focused media to high-impact digital campaigns. With in-house studios for video, animation, and live streaming, Core offers end-to-end solutions that are both visually compelling and commercially effective. Their mission is to bring clarity, creativity, and confidence to brands navigating complex markets. Whether you're a fintech startup or a global institution, Core helps you communicate with purpose and originality. Now accepting bitcoin payments. 📈

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Upcoming Special Events

These events aren't happening next week, but they're important to add to your calendar now as tickets are selling fast.

The Bitcoin Beach Retreat: An annual Bitcoin-only gathering held at a scenic coastal campsite in North Wales. Celebrating its fifth year in 2025, the retreat offers a relaxed, community-driven alternative to traditional conferences.

From July 11--14, up to 120 Bitcoiners will come together to share knowledge, enjoy beachside BBQs, and strengthen their networks under the stars. With no pre-booked speakers, the event thrives on peer-led workshops and spontaneous discussions, fostering genuine connections among attendees. Emphasising local engagement, the retreat directs the majority of its funds into the surrounding community, with 42% of expenses paid in Bitcoin last year.

Whether attending solo or with family, attendees can expect a welcoming environment dedicated to sound money and shared values.

Scottish Bitcoin Conference: Taking place on August 23, 2025, at the Glasgow University Union, located at 32 University Avenue, Glasgow G12 8LX. From 09:00 to 16:30.

Featuring an impressive roster of speakers, including Anthony Scaramucci, Hashley Giles, Rick Messit, Dr. Peter Connor, Claire Chisholm, Roger9000, John Magill, Ian Scanlon, Robin Thatcher, Jamie Plowman, Robbie Maltby, Russell Rukin, Peter Lane, Francesco Madonna, and Sam Roberts.

Open to all, this conference offers a unique opportunity for Bitcoiners and newcomers alike to connect and learn in the vibrant setting of Glasgow.

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Get Involved

• Volunteer: Passionate about merchant adoption? Reach out to Bridge2Bitcoin on Twitter or website.
• Start a Meetup: Want to launch a Bitcoin meetup? We'll support you. Contact us on Twitter or just reply to this email.
• Contribute to BTCMaps: Help maintain this key Bitcoin resource--no coding skills needed. Update a UK area.
• Telegram: Join our Channel for UK meetup updates
• Feedback: Reply to this email with ideas and suggestions.

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This week's sponsors is…

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Get out and support the meetups where you can, visit Bitcoin Events UK for more info on each meetup and to find your closest on the interactive map.

Stay tuned for more updates next week!

Simon.

@ 4fe14ef2:f51992ec

Let's support Bitcoin merchants! I'd love to hear some of your latest Lightning purchases and interesting products you bought. Feel free to include links to the shops or businesses you bought from.

Who else has a recent purchase they’re excited about? Bonus sats if you found a killer deal! ⚡

If you missed our last thread, here are some of the items stackers recently spent and zap on.

Like and repost: X: https://x.com/AGORA_SN/status/1931657445916766655 N: https://njump.me/note1qqqsgu9pgx2u6yt2dv0c5yedpzrqalaqe3rf3lwxfu4a0w6wemtsy0eyfu

https://stacker.news/items/1000477

@ dab6c606:51f507b6

I've been interested for a while in how the business with miles and loyalty points works. I found out that only large corporations can partially do this because of how they can then account for it. And it's tax-wise super advantageous. I also added info about loyalty points and gift cards. The text below was written by various AIs as I was digging into it, it's basically a summary, sharing for those who are interested.

Part I: Loyalty Programs of Large Corporations

Business Logic of Loyalty Programs

Loyalty programs of airlines and hotels are sophisticated business tools that serve several key purposes. They primarily function to increase customer loyalty by creating "switching costs" - customers don't want to lose accumulated points, which reduces the likelihood they'll switch to competitors.

At the same time, they're a significant source of additional revenue. For example, American Airlines earns more from selling miles to banks than on some flight routes. When Citibank buys miles for 1-2 cents per mile, the airline gets immediate revenue, while the real value for the customer can be 3-5 cents when used correctly.

Accounting Treatment of Loyalty Points

From an accounting perspective, loyalty points represent deferred liabilities. When a customer earns points, the company must create a reserve for their future redemption. Points are valued based on expected costs of their redemption, not on nominal value.

The key difference is between cash accounting and accrual accounting: - Cash accounting: Revenue is recognized when payment is received, expenses when paid. - Accrual accounting: Revenue and expenses are recognized when the obligation arises.

For loyalty programs, accrual accounting is critical. When an airline sells miles to a bank for $1,000,000, it simultaneously creates a liability for future costs (say $600,000), so taxable income is only $400,000.

Example: Selling Miles to a Bank

An airline sells 50 million miles to Citibank for $1,000,000: 1. Immediate revenue: $1,000,000 2. Creation of liability: $600,000 (estimated future costs) 3. Taxable income: $400,000 4. Future costs: When customers use miles, the company recognizes the expense and reduces the liability

Positive margin arises from several factors: - Breakage - 15-20% of miles are never redeemed - Time value of money - Money from the bank is invested immediately - Marginal costs - An empty seat has low incremental cost

Tax Optimization and Offshore Structures

Large companies often use international structures to optimize taxes from loyalty programs. A typical structure includes: 1. Parent company (USA/EU) - Operates flights and provides services (e.g., flights or accommodation). 2. IP Holding (Ireland/Netherlands) - Owns intellectual property (IP) for the loyalty program, such as brands, software, and databases. 3. Loyalty Operating Company (Singapore/Dubai) - Manages sale of miles to banks and partners, coordinates the program and communicates with customers.

Business Relationships and Payments Between Entities (example with positive result for Singapore)

These entities are connected by contracts that determine who pays for what and why, to minimize tax burden: - Bank → Singapore (Loyalty Operating Company): The bank (e.g., Citibank) pays $1,000,000 for miles it offers to its clients as rewards for using credit cards. The Singapore company is the main contact point for partners because it's located in a low-tax jurisdiction (17%) with good infrastructure for financial services. - Singapore → Ireland (IP Holding): The Singapore company pays $500,000 as royalties for using IP (brands, software, and data) of the loyalty program. This payment is high to shift profit to Ireland, where the tax rate is even lower (12.5%). This reduces taxable income in Singapore. - Singapore → Parent Company (Airline): The Singapore company pays $300,000 to the parent company for providing services (e.g., flights) when customers use miles. This payment is lower than actual costs to minimize profit in the parent company's country, where the tax rate is higher (e.g., 25-35% in USA or EU). - Profit in Singapore: $1,000,000 (income from bank) - $500,000 (royalties to Ireland) - $300,000 (payment to airline) = $200,000 profit, taxed at 17% in Singapore.

Why Such Distribution?

• Ireland (IP Holding): High royalty payments ($500,000) go to Ireland because the 12.5% tax rate is attractive and Ireland is considered a "serious" jurisdiction that meets international rules (e.g., BEPS). Ireland also has double taxation treaties with many countries, facilitating profit shifting.
• Singapore (Loyalty Operating Company): Mile sales and program coordination occur in Singapore due to favorable tax environment (17%) and strategic location for Asian markets. A small profit ($200,000) is left here to demonstrate "economic substance" - that the company has real activity.
• Parent Company: The $300,000 payment is low to minimize taxable income in a high-tax country (e.g., USA or EU).

Why Not 0% Tax Jurisdiction?

Why not use a zero-tax country (e.g., Cayman Islands)? Due to: - Regulatory scrutiny - Tax authorities closely monitor 0% jurisdictions and may question legitimacy. - BEPS rules - Need to demonstrate "substance" (real offices, employees) in the country. - Credibility test - 12.5% in Ireland or 17% in Singapore looks like legitimate business operation.

The result of such structure is that most profit (60-70%) is taxed at 12.5% in Ireland or 17% in Singapore instead of 25-35% in the airline's home country.

Part II: Loyalty Programs and Alternatives for Small Businesses

Why Loyalty Programs Are Problematic for Small Businesses

Unlike large corporations, small businesses like cafes face a fundamental problem with loyalty programs: cash accounting obligation. In many countries, small firms (under $25M annually) must use cash accounting, which means: - Revenue from selling points is taxed immediately - Costs are deducted only when customers use points (maybe a year later) - Creates tax and cashflow problem - tax is paid on money you'll "lose" in the future

Imagine a cafe that sells loyalty points for €100. It must immediately pay tax (say €21), but deducts coffee costs provided for points only in the future.

Alternative Models for Small Businesses

There are more tax-advantageous alternatives:

1. Gift Cards Model

• Revenue is NOT RECOGNIZED when selling gift card
• Revenue is recognized only when customer uses the card
• Example: Sell gift cards for €10,000 in December, get cash immediately, but pay tax gradually as customers use cards during the following year.
• Time value of money: Money can be invested (e.g., 6% annually = €600 extra profit on €10,000)
• Breakage benefit: 2-10% of cards are never used, after certain time (3-5 years, depending on legislation) you can recognize the balance as pure profit.

Example: Starbucks Starbucks had $1.5 billion in unused gift cards on its books in 2022. Estimated 3% breakage means $45 million pure profit – interest-free loan from customers with bonus that part never returns.

2. Subscription Model

• Monthly revenue = immediate taxation
• Monthly costs = immediate deduction
• Example: €10/month for "premium membership" with certain benefits

3. Discount Coupons

• No revenue when issuing coupon
• Reduced revenue when redeeming (sell at lower price)
• Example: 20% discount coupon = sell coffee for €4 instead of €5

Outsourcing Loyalty Program: Details About Shopify Loyalty

Platforms like Shopify Loyalty represent an elegant solution for small businesses wanting to offer loyalty programs without accounting and tax complications. Let's break this down in detail:

How Shopify Loyalty Works

• Shopify as third party: Shopify owns and manages the entire loyalty program including points and software. The customer has their "account" directly with Shopify, not with the specific store. This means points are not your liability, but Shopify's liability.
• Your role: You (e.g., cafe) pay Shopify a monthly fee (e.g., €29) for using the platform and a small transaction fee (e.g., €0.20) for each point redemption (reward). You're essentially a "service provider" for Shopify – you provide rewards when Shopify sends you an order.
• Earning points: Customer earns points for purchases in stores participating in Shopify Loyalty program. For example, if customer buys coffee for €5 in your cafe, Shopify credits them points (e.g., 5 points per euro, so 25 points). Specific rules (how many points per euro) are set by you through Shopify platform, but technically points are managed by Shopify.
• Using points: Customer can use points for rewards (e.g., free coffee for 100 points), but usually only in stores participating in Shopify network. This means if your cafe uses Shopify Loyalty, points earned with you can be used with you or other stores in Shopify ecosystem, if Shopify allows it. Usually, however, stores set up the program so points are primarily usable with them, increasing loyalty to their brand.
• Point redemption process: When customer wants to use points (e.g., 100 points for free coffee), Shopify sends order to you (cafe) to provide the reward. You give the coffee but don't receive direct payment from customer – it's a marketing cost. You also pay Shopify transaction fee (€0.20). Accounting-wise, it's not a sale, so no taxable income or receipt obligation arises.
• Accounting treatment: When customer uses points:
• No receipt = no taxable income
• Coffee cost (€2) + Shopify fee (€0.20) = €2.20
• Recorded as "Promotional expenses" or "Marketing costs"

Why Must Loyalty Program Be Outsourced to Third Party (like Shopify)?

Small businesses don't have capacity or resources to manage their own loyalty program "in-house" for these reasons: - Tax and accounting complexity: If you managed loyalty program yourself, you'd have to create reserves for future liabilities (points customers will use later), estimate breakage rate (percentage of unused points) and handle cash vs. accrual accounting. For small firms that often must use cash accounting, this means immediate taxation of revenue if selling points, but cost deduction only in the future – creates cashflow mismatch. - Technological infrastructure: Managing points, customer databases and integration with payment systems requires sophisticated software and IT team, which is expensive and complicated for small firms. - Legal separation: When program is managed by third party like Shopify, points are their liability, not yours. For you, this means no future liabilities in your accounting books – just monthly costs (Shopify fee), which are tax-deductible as regular expense. - Economic efficiency: Shopify aggregates thousands of stores, achieving economies of scale – lower costs for software, security and data management. A small cafe could never create such system at reasonable price alone.

Why Can't It Be In-house from Tax Perspective?

If small firm managed loyalty program itself: - Immediate tax problem: If firm sold points (e.g., for money or as part of purchase), revenue would have to be taxed immediately, though costs for providing rewards (e.g., free coffee) could be deducted only when customer uses points. This creates cashflow mismatch because you pay tax before actually "losing" money on reward. - Complex reserves: Would have to estimate how many points will be used and create accounting reserves, which is administratively demanding and requires expensive accountants or software. - Risk of errors: Incorrect breakage rate estimates or poor liability management can lead to tax audits and penalties.

With Shopify, these problems are eliminated – you only pay monthly fee and transaction fees, which are simply recorded as marketing costs. Shopify takes full responsibility for managing points and liabilities to customers.

Case Study: Loyalty Points for Cafe (10 + 1 Free Model)

Let's look at specific case of small cafe offering classic loyalty program type "10 + 1 free". Customer gets 1 point for each coffee purchased (e.g., for €3) and after collecting 10 points gets one free coffee. We'll analyze how this works accounting-wise, whether it's "promotional expense" and what's the difference between in-house management and using Shopify.

How "10 + 1 Free" Program Works

• Earning points: Customer buys coffee for €3 and gets 1 point (e.g., stamp on card or digital record). Points have no monetary value for sale – they're purely reward for purchase.
• Using points: After collecting 10 points (meaning purchases for €30) customer gets free coffee (value €3).
• Real cost for cafe: Cost of producing free coffee is lower than selling price, e.g., €1.50 for materials and labor.

Accounting Treatment (In-house)

If cafe manages program itself (in-house), accounting process depends on whether it uses cash accounting (common for small firms) or accrual accounting: - Cash accounting: - When customer buys coffee: Cafe records €3 revenue for each coffee and issues receipt. Point (stamp) has no monetary value, so it's not recorded as liability or revenue. - When redeeming 10 points: When customer gets free coffee, no revenue arises (€0), but cost for coffee production arises (€1.50). This cost is recorded as "Promotional expense" or "Marketing cost" because it's form of discount or advertising to retain customer. - Tax impact: No revenue when issuing free coffee, €1.50 cost is tax-deductible as regular expense. - Accrual accounting (less common for small firms): - When customer buys coffee: Cafe records €3 revenue but simultaneously creates small liability for future reward (e.g., €0.30 per point, which is estimate of cost for future free coffee divided by 10). So from €3 revenue, taxable income is only €2.70. - When redeeming 10 points: When customer gets free coffee, cafe reduces liability by €3 (10 points x €0.30) and records €1.50 cost for coffee production. Difference can be adjusted as breakage or other profit if estimates differ from reality. - Tax impact: Taxable income is lower already at first purchase, but accounting is more complex due to estimates and reserves.

Is it Promotional Expense? Yes, in both cases (cash and accrual) the cost of free coffee is recorded as "Promotional expense" or "Marketing cost" because it's form of discount to support customer loyalty. It's not considered regular sale because no revenue or receipt arises.

Accounting Treatment (via Shopify Loyalty)

If cafe uses Shopify Loyalty to manage "10 + 1 free" program, process is simpler: - When customer buys coffee: Cafe records €3 revenue for coffee and issues receipt. Shopify credits point to customer's account (it's not your liability, but Shopify's). - When redeeming 10 points: Shopify sends order to issue free coffee. Cafe gives coffee (€1.50 cost) and pays Shopify transaction fee (€0.20). Total cost €1.70 is recorded as "Promotional expense" or "Marketing cost". - Tax impact: Same as in-house, no revenue when issuing free coffee, €1.70 cost is tax-deductible as regular expense. Additionally, you don't have to handle any liabilities or breakage estimates because Shopify manages points.

Difference Between In-house and Shopify

• In-house:
• Advantages: Full control over program, no monthly fees to third party (e.g., €29 Shopify fee).
• Disadvantages: If using accrual accounting, must create reserves and estimate breakage, which is administratively demanding. With cash accounting it's simpler (no liabilities), but if you sold points for money, tax mismatch arises (revenue taxed immediately, cost only later). Additionally, must manage point database yourself (stamps, software), which is time-consuming.
• Shopify Loyalty:
• Advantages: No liabilities in your accounting books, Shopify manages points and technology. Accounting-wise it's simple – just monthly fee (€29) and transaction fees (€0.20) as marketing cost. Don't have to handle estimates or breakage.
• Disadvantages: Pay monthly fees and transaction fees, increasing costs (e.g., €0.20 extra per free coffee). Have less control over program because third party manages it.

Conclusion for Cafe: "10 + 1 free" program is accounting-wise considered Promotional expense in both cases (in-house and Shopify) because free coffee is form of marketing to retain customers. Difference is in administrative burden and costs – Shopify simplifies accounting and management, but at cost of monthly fees. In-house is cheaper but more demanding to manage, especially if you wanted to use accrual accounting or sell points for money.

Conclusion

Loyalty programs are sophisticated customer loyalty tools, but their accounting and tax aspects differ significantly between large and small firms. Large corporations use accrual accounting and international structures for tax optimization, while for small businesses alternative models like gift cards or outsourcing entire program are often more advantageous, eliminating tax and cashflow problems. Gift cards additionally bring immediate cash flow, time value of money and breakage benefit, making them ideal tool for businesses of all sizes. Shopify Loyalty offers small firms way to implement loyalty program without accounting complications because it takes technical and legal responsibility, allowing focus on core business. For simple programs like "10 + 1 free," accounting impact is similar (Promotional expense), but Shopify simplifies management at cost of additional fees.

@ dab6c606:51f507b6

Dlhšie som sa zaujímal o to ako funguje biznis s míľami, vernostnými bodmi. Zistil som, že to čiastočne môžu robiť iba veľké korporácie kvôli tomu ako to môžu potom zaúčtovať. A je to daňovo super výhodné. Pridal som aj info o vernostných bodoch a darčekových kartách. Text nižšie napísali rôzne AI ako som sa v tom vŕtal, to je v zásade sumár, zdieľam pre tých, ktorých to zaujíma.

Časť I: Vernostné programy veľkých korporácií

Obchodná logika vernostných programov

Vernostné programy leteckých spoločností a hotelov sú sofistikované obchodné nástroje, ktoré slúžia niekoľkým kľúčovým účelom. Primárne fungujú na zvýšenie zákazníckej lojality vytvorením "switching costs" - zákazníci nechcú prísť o nazbierané body, čo znižuje pravdepodobnosť, že prejdú ku konkurencii.

Zároveň sú významným zdrojom dodatočných príjmov. Napríklad American Airlines zarába viac na predaji míľ bankám ako na niektorých leteckých linkách. Keď Citibank kupuje míle za 1-2 centy za míľu, aerolínia získava okamžitý príjem, zatiaľ čo reálna hodnota pre zákazníka môže byť 3-5 centov pri správnom využití.

Účtovné spracovanie vernostných bodov

Z účtovného hľadiska predstavujú vernostné body odložené záväzky. Keď zákazník získa body, spoločnosť musí vytvoriť rezervu na ich budúce uplatnenie. Body sa oceňujú na základe predpokladaných nákladov na ich uplatnenie, nie na základe nominálnej hodnoty.

Kľúčový je rozdiel medzi cash accounting a accrual accounting: - Cash accounting: Príjmy sa uznávajú pri prijatí platby, náklady pri zaplatení. - Accrual accounting: Príjmy a náklady sa uznávajú v momente vzniku záväzku.

Pre vernostné programy je accrual accounting kritické. Keď aerolínia predá míle banke za $1,000,000, vytvorí zároveň záväzok na budúce náklady (povedzme $600,000), takže zdaniteľný príjem je len $400,000.

Príklad: Predaj míľ banke

Aerolínia predá 50 miliónov míľ Citibank za $1,000,000: 1. Okamžitý príjem: $1,000,000 2. Vytvorenie záväzku: $600,000 (odhadované budúce náklady) 3. Zdaniteľný príjem: $400,000 4. Budúce náklady: Keď zákazníci míle využijú, spoločnosť uzná náklad a zníži záväzok

Pozitívna marža vzniká z niekoľkých faktorov: - Breakage - 15-20% míľ sa nikdy neuplatní - Časová hodnota peňazí - Peniaze od banky investuje okamžite - Marginálne náklady - Prázdne sedadlo má nízky prírastok nákladu

Daňová optimalizácia a offshore štruktúry

Veľké spoločnosti často využívajú medzinárodné štruktúry na optimalizáciu daní z vernostných programov. Typická štruktúra zahŕňa: 1. Materská spoločnosť (USA/EU) - Prevádzkuje lety a poskytuje služby (napr. lety alebo ubytovanie). 2. IP Holding (Írsko/Holandsko) - Vlastní duševné vlastníctvo (IP) k loyalty programu, ako sú značky, softvér a databázy. 3. Loyalty Operating Company (Singapur/Dubaj) - Spravuje predaj míľ bankám a partnerom, koordinuje program a komunikuje so zákazníkmi.

Obchodné vzťahy a platby medzi entitami (príklad s pozitívnym výsledkom pre Singapur)

Tieto entity sú prepojené zmluvami, ktoré určujú, kto za čo platí a prečo, aby sa minimalizovala daňová záťaž: - Banka → Singapur (Loyalty Operating Company): Banka (napr. Citibank) platí $1,000,000 za míle, ktoré ponúka svojim klientom ako odmenu za používanie kreditných kariet. Singapurská spoločnosť je hlavný kontaktný bod pre partnerov, pretože je umiestnená v jurisdikcii s nízkou daňou (17 %) a dobrou infraštruktúrou pre finančné služby. - Singapur → Írsko (IP Holding): Singapurská spoločnosť platí $500,000 ako royalty za použitie IP (značky, softvéru a dát) loyalty programu. Táto platba je vysoká, aby sa presunul zisk do Írska, kde je daňová sadzba ešte nižšia (12,5 %). Tým sa znižuje zdaniteľný príjem v Singapure. - Singapur → Materská spoločnosť (Aerolínia): Singapurská spoločnosť platí $300,000 materskej spoločnosti za poskytnutie služieb (napr. letov), keď zákazníci využijú míle. Táto platba je nižšia ako reálne náklady, aby sa minimalizoval zisk v krajine materskej spoločnosti, kde je daňová sadzba vyššia (napr. 25-35 % v USA alebo EU). - Zisk v Singapure: $1,000,000 (príjem od banky) - $500,000 (royalty do Írska) - $300,000 (platba aerolínii) = $200,000 zisku, ktorý je zdanený pri 17 % v Singapure.

Prečo takéto rozdelenie?

• Írsko (IP Holding): Vysoké royalty platby ($500,000) idú do Írska, pretože daňová sadzba 12,5 % je atraktívna a Írsko je považované za "serióznu" jurisdikciu, ktorá spĺňa medzinárodné pravidlá (napr. BEPS). Zároveň má Írsko zmluvy o zamedzení dvojitého zdanenia s mnohými krajinami, čo uľahčuje presun zisku.
• Singapur (Loyalty Operating Company): Predaj míľ a koordinácia programu prebieha v Singapure kvôli priaznivému daňovému prostrediu (17 %) a strategickej polohe pre ázijské trhy. Zároveň sa tu zanecháva malý zisk ($200,000), aby sa preukázala "ekonomická substance" – teda, že spoločnosť má reálnu činnosť.
• Materská spoločnosť: Platba $300,000 je nízka, aby sa minimalizoval zdaniteľný príjem v krajine s vysokou daňovou sadzbou (napr. USA alebo EU).

Prečo nie 0 % daňová jurisdikcia?

Prečo sa nepoužíva krajina s nulovou daňou (napr. Kajmanské ostrovy)? Kvôli: - Regulatory scrutiny - Daňové úrady pozorne sledujú 0 % jurisdikcie a môžu spochybniť legitímnosť. - BEPS pravidlám - Potreba preukázať "substance" (reálne kancelárie, zamestnancov) v krajine. - Credibility testu - 12,5 % v Írsku alebo 17 % v Singapure vyzerá ako legitímna obchodná operácia.

Výsledkom takejto štruktúry je, že väčšina zisku (60-70 %) je zdanená pri 12,5 % v Írsku alebo 17 % v Singapure namiesto 25-35 % v domovskej krajine aerolínky.

Časť II: Loyalty programy a alternatívy pre malé biznisy

Prečo je loyalty program problematický pre malé biznisy

Na rozdiel od veľkých korporácií, malé biznisy ako kaviarne narážajú pri vernostných programoch na zásadný problém: cash accounting povinnosť. V mnohých krajinách musia malé firmy (pod $25M ročne) používať cash accounting, čo znamená: - Príjem z predaja bodov sa zdaní okamžite - Náklady sa odpočítajú až keď zákazník body využije (možno o rok) - Vzniká daňový a cashflow problém - daň sa platí z peňazí, ktoré "stratíte" v budúcnosti

Predstavte si kaviareň, ktorá predá vernostné body za €100. Okamžite musí zaplatiť daň (povedzme €21), ale náklady na kávu poskytnutú za body odpočíta až v budúcnosti.

Alternatívne modely pre malé biznisy

Existujú daňovo výhodnejšie alternatívy:

1. Gift Cards model

• Príjem sa NEUZNÁ pri predaji gift karty
• Príjem sa uzná až keď zákazník kartu využije
• Príklad: Predáte gift cards za €10,000 v decembri, získate cash okamžite, ale daň platíte postupne, ako zákazníci karty využívajú počas nasledujúceho roka.
• Časová hodnota peňazí: Peniaze môžete investovať (napr. 6 % ročne = €600 extra zisk na €10,000)
• Breakage benefit: 2-10 % kariet sa nikdy nevyužije, po určitom čase (3-5 rokov, podľa legislatívy) môžete zostatok uznať ako čistý zisk.

Príklad: Starbucks Starbucks mal v roku 2022 na účtoch $1,5 miliardy v nevyužitých gift cards. Odhadovaný breakage 3 % znamená $45 miliónov čistého zisku – bezúročná pôžička od zákazníkov s bonusom, že časť sa nikdy nevráti.

2. Subscription model

• Mesačný príjem = okamžité zdanenie
• Mesačné náklady = okamžitý odpočet
• Príklad: €10/mesiac za "premium membership" s určitými benefitmi

3. Discount Coupons

• Žiadny príjem pri vydaní kupónu
• Znížený príjem pri uplatnení (predáte za nižšiu cenu)
• Príklad: 20 % zľavový kupón = predaj kávy za €4 namiesto €5

Outsourcing loyalty programu: Podrobnosti o Shopify Loyalty

Platformy ako Shopify Loyalty predstavujú elegantné riešenie pre malé biznisy, ktoré chcú ponúkať vernostné programy bez účtovných a daňových komplikácií. Poďme si to rozobrať podrobne:

Ako funguje Shopify Loyalty

• Shopify ako tretia strana: Shopify vlastní a spravuje celý vernostný program vrátane bodov a softvéru. Zákazník má svoj "účet" priamo u Shopify, nie u konkrétneho obchodu. To znamená, že body nie sú vaším záväzkom, ale záväzkom Shopify.
• Vaša úloha: Vy (napr. kaviareň) platíte Shopify mesačný poplatok (napr. €29) za používanie platformy a malý transakčný poplatok (napr. €0,20) za každé uplatnenie bodov (reward). Vy ste v podstate "dodávateľom služieb" pre Shopify – poskytujete odmeny, keď vám Shopify pošle objednávku.
• Získavanie bodov: Zákazník získava body za nákupy v obchodoch, ktoré sú zapojené do Shopify Loyalty programu. Napríklad, ak zákazník nakúpi kávu za €5 vo vašej kaviarni, Shopify mu pripíše body (napr. 5 bodov za každé euro, teda 25 bodov). Konkrétne pravidlá (koľko bodov za euro) si nastavujete vy cez Shopify platformu, ale technicky body spravuje Shopify.
• Využitie bodov: Zákazník môže body využiť na odmeny (napr. kávu zadarmo za 100 bodov), ale zvyčajne len v obchodoch zapojených do Shopify siete. To znamená, že ak vaša kaviareň používa Shopify Loyalty, body získané u vás môžu byť využité u vás alebo v iných obchodoch v rámci Shopify ekosystému, ak to Shopify umožňuje. Väčšinou však obchody nastavujú program tak, aby boli body využiteľné primárne u nich, čím sa zvyšuje lojalita k ich značke.
• Proces uplatnenia bodov: Keď zákazník chce využiť body (napr. 100 bodov za kávu zadarmo), Shopify pošle objednávku vám (kaviarni) na poskytnutie odmeny. Vy kávu vydáte, ale nedostanete za ňu priamy príjem od zákazníka – ide o marketingový náklad. Zároveň platíte Shopify transakčný poplatok (€0,20). Účtovne to nie je predaj, takže nevzniká zdaniteľný príjem ani povinnosť vystaviť bloček.
• Účtovné spracovanie: Keď zákazník využije body:
• Žiadny bloček = žiadny zdaniteľný príjem
• Náklad kávy (€2) + Shopify fee (€0,20) = €2,20
• Účtuje sa ako "Promotional expenses" alebo "Marketing costs"

Prečo musí byť loyalty program outsourcovaný tretej strane (ako Shopify)?

Malé biznisy nemajú kapacitu ani zdroje na správu vlastného loyalty programu "in-house" z týchto dôvodov: - Daňová a účtovná komplexnosť: Ak by ste spravovali loyalty program sami, museli by ste vytvárať rezervy na budúce záväzky (body, ktoré zákazníci využijú neskôr), odhadovať breakage rate (percento nevyužitých bodov) a riešiť cash vs. accrual accounting. Pre malé firmy, ktoré často musia používať cash accounting, to znamená okamžité zdanenie príjmu, ak by body predávali, ale odpočet nákladov až v budúcnosti – vzniká cashflow nesúlad. - Technologická infraštruktúra: Správa bodov, databáz zákazníkov a integrácia s platobnými systémami vyžaduje sofistikovaný softvér a IT tím, čo je pre malé firmy nákladné a komplikované. - Legálna separácia: Keď program spravuje tretia strana ako Shopify, body sú ich záväzkom, nie vaším. Pre vás to znamená, že nemáte žiadne budúce záväzky vo svojej účtovnej knihe – len mesačné náklady (poplatok Shopify), ktoré sú daňovo odpočítateľné ako bežný výdavok. - Ekonomická efektivita: Shopify združuje tisíce obchodov, čím dosahuje ekonomiku rozsahu – nižšie náklady na softvér, bezpečnosť a správu dát. Malá kaviareň by sama nikdy nedokázala vytvoriť takýto systém za rozumnú cenu.

Prečo to nemôže byť in-house z daňového hľadiska?

Ak by malá firma spravovala loyalty program sama: - Okamžitý daňový problém: Ak by firma predávala body (napr. za peniaze alebo ako súčasť nákupu), príjem by musela zdaniť hneď, hoci náklady na poskytnutie odmien (napr. káva zadarmo) by mohla odpočítať až v momente, keď zákazník body využije. To vytvára cashflow nesúlad, pretože daň platíte skôr, než reálne "stratíte" peniaze na odmenu. - Zložité rezervy: Musela by odhadovať, koľko bodov sa využije, a vytvárať účtovné rezervy, čo je administratívne náročné a vyžaduje drahých účtovníkov alebo softvér. - Riziko chýb: Nesprávne odhady breakage rate alebo zlý manažment záväzkov môžu viesť k daňovým kontrolám a pokutám.

S Shopify sa tieto problémy eliminujú – vy platíte len mesačný poplatok a transakčné fees, ktoré sú jednoducho účtované ako marketingové náklady. Shopify preberá celú zodpovednosť za správu bodov a záväzkov voči zákazníkom.

Prípadová štúdia: Vernostné body pre kaviareň (model 10 + 1 zadarmo)

Pozrime sa na konkrétny prípad malej kaviarne, ktorá ponúka klasický vernostný program typu "10 + 1 zadarmo". Zákazník dostane 1 bod za každú kúpenú kávu (napr. za €3) a po nazbieraní 10 bodov dostane jednu kávu zadarmo. Rozoberieme, ako to funguje účtovne, či ide o "promotional expense" a aký je rozdiel medzi in-house správou a použitím Shopify.

Ako funguje program "10 + 1 zadarmo"

• Získavanie bodov: Zákazník kúpi kávu za €3 a dostane 1 bod (napr. pečiatku na kartičku alebo digitálny záznam). Body nemajú peňažnú hodnotu na predaj – sú čisto odmenou za nákup.
• Využitie bodov: Po nazbieraní 10 bodov (čo znamená nákupy za €30) zákazník dostane kávu zadarmo (hodnota €3).
• Reálny náklad pre kaviareň: Náklad na výrobu kávy zadarmo je nižší ako predajná cena, napr. €1,50 za suroviny a prácu.

Účtovné spracovanie (In-house)

Ak kaviareň spravuje program sama (in-house), účtovný proces závisí od toho, či používa cash accounting (bežné pre malé firmy) alebo accrual accounting: - Cash accounting: - Pri nákupe kávy zákazníkom: Kaviareň účtuje príjem €3 za každú kávu a vydá bloček. Bod (pečiatka) nemá peňažnú hodnotu, takže sa neúčtuje ako záväzok ani príjem. - Pri uplatnení 10 bodov: Keď zákazník dostane kávu zadarmo, nevzniká príjem (€0), ale vzniká náklad na výrobu kávy (€1,50). Tento náklad sa účtuje ako "Promotional expense" alebo "Marketing cost", pretože ide o formu zľavy alebo reklamy na udržanie zákazníka. - Daňový dopad: Žiadny príjem pri vydaní kávy zadarmo, náklad €1,50 je daňovo odpočítateľný ako bežný výdavok. - Accrual accounting (menej bežné pre malé firmy): - Pri nákupe kávy zákazníkom: Kaviareň účtuje príjem €3, ale zároveň vytvára malý záväzok na budúcu odmenu (napr. €0,30 za každý bod, čo je odhad nákladu na budúcu kávu zadarmo deleno 10). Teda z €3 príjmu je zdaniteľný príjem len €2,70. - Pri uplatnení 10 bodov: Keď zákazník dostane kávu zadarmo, kaviareň zníži záväzok o €3 (10 bodov x €0,30) a účtuje náklad €1,50 na výrobu kávy. Rozdiel môže byť upravený ako breakage alebo iný zisk, ak sa odhady líšia od reality. - Daňový dopad: Zdaniteľný príjem je nižší už pri prvom nákupe, ale účtovníctvo je zložitejšie kvôli odhadom a rezervám.

Je to Promotional Expense? Áno, v oboch prípadoch (cash aj accrual) sa náklad na kávu zadarmo účtuje ako "Promotional expense" alebo "Marketing cost", pretože ide o formu zľavy na podporu lojality zákazníkov. Nie je to považované za bežný predaj, pretože nevzniká príjem ani bloček.

Účtovné spracovanie (cez Shopify Loyalty)

Ak kaviareň používa Shopify Loyalty na správu programu "10 + 1 zadarmo", proces je jednoduchší: - Pri nákupe kávy zákazníkom: Kaviareň účtuje príjem €3 za kávu a vydá bloček. Shopify pripíše bod zákazníkovi do jeho účtu (nie je to váš záväzok, ale Shopify). - Pri uplatnení 10 bodov: Shopify pošle objednávku na vydanie kávy zadarmo. Kaviareň vydá kávu (náklad €1,50) a zaplatí Shopify transakčný poplatok (€0,20). Celkový náklad €1,70 sa účtuje ako "Promotional expense" alebo "Marketing cost". - Daňový dopad: Rovnako ako pri in-house, žiadny príjem pri vydaní kávy zadarmo, náklad €1,70 je daňovo odpočítateľný ako bežný výdavok. Navyše nemusíte riešiť žiadne záväzky alebo odhady breakage, pretože body spravuje Shopify.

Rozdiel medzi In-house a Shopify

• In-house:
• Výhody: Plná kontrola nad programom, žiadne mesačné poplatky tretej strane (napr. €29 Shopify fee).
• Nevýhody: Ak použijete accrual accounting, musíte vytvárať rezervy a odhadovať breakage, čo je administratívne náročné. Pri cash accounting je to jednoduchšie (žiadne záväzky), ale ak by ste body predávali za peniaze, vzniká daňový nesúlad (príjem zdanený hneď, náklad až neskôr). Navyše musíte sami spravovať databázu bodov (pečiatky, softvér), čo je časovo náročné.
• Shopify Loyalty:
• Výhody: Žiadne záväzky vo vašej účtovnej knihe, Shopify spravuje body a technológiu. Účtovne je to jednoduché – len mesačný poplatok (€29) a transakčné poplatky (€0,20) ako marketingový náklad. Nemusíte riešiť odhady ani breakage.
• Nevýhody: Platíte mesačné poplatky a transakčné fees, čo zvyšuje náklady (napr. €0,20 navyše za každú kávu zadarmo). Máte menšiu kontrolu nad programom, pretože ho spravuje tretia strana.

Záver pre kaviareň: Program "10 + 1 zadarmo" je účtovne považovaný za Promotional expense v oboch prípadoch (in-house aj Shopify), pretože káva zadarmo je forma marketingu na udržanie zákazníkov. Rozdiel je v administratívnej záťaži a nákladoch – Shopify zjednodušuje účtovníctvo a správu, ale za cenu mesačných poplatkov. In-house je lacnejšie, ale náročnejšie na správu, najmä ak by ste chceli používať accrual accounting alebo predávať body za peniaze.

Záver

Vernostné programy sú sofistikovaný nástroj zákazníckej lojality, ale ich účtovné a daňové aspekty sa výrazne líšia medzi veľkými a malými firmami. Veľké korporácie využívajú accrual accounting a medzinárodné štruktúry na optimalizáciu daní, zatiaľ čo pre malé biznisy sú často výhodnejšie alternatívne modely ako gift cards alebo outsourcing celého programu, ktoré eliminujú daňové a cashflow problémy. Gift cards navyše prinášajú okamžitý cash flow, časovú hodnotu peňazí a breakage benefit, čo z nich robí ideálny nástroj pre podniky všetkých veľkostí. Shopify Loyalty ponúka malým firmám spôsob, ako implementovať vernostný program bez účtovných komplikácií, pretože preberá technickú a právnu zodpovednosť, čím umožňuje sústrediť sa na core biznis. Pre jednoduché programy ako "10 + 1 zadarmo" je účtovný dopad podobný (Promotional expense), ale Shopify zjednodušuje správu za cenu dodatočných poplatkov.

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@ 86dfbe73:628cef55

Das Private ist immer nur privat in Bezug zu einem bestimmten oder unbestimmten Gegenüber. Heutzutage steht man vielen Privatheiten und vielen Öffentlichkeiten gegenüber. Was privat ist, bemisst sich an der jeweiligen Relation, in der es als privat festgelegt wurde. Die “Privatsphäre”, die üblicherweise gemeint wird, ist jene Sphäre, die der Staat als privat zu respektieren hat, über deren Grenze er sich also nur in seltenen und jeweils zu begründenden Einzelfällen hinwegsetzen darf.

In anderen Beziehungen hingegen gibt es andere “Privatheiten” — dem Arbeitgeber gegenüber etwa, den Kollegen, ehemaligen Schulfreunden, dem Ehepartner, den Eltern oder Kinder. In all diesen Beziehungen gibt es “ausgeschlossene” Bereiche, die das Private meinen. Die Privatsphäre ist dabei die Sphäre über deren Geheimhaltung man gegenüber dem anderen Partner der Beziehung frei verfügen kann, denn Privatsphäre ist die Möglichkeit, sich der Welt selektiv zu offenbaren.

Wenn nicht reflektiert wird, dass es weitgehend eine veränderte Gesellschaft ist, die sich konstituiert, eine Gesellschaft, die mit der vorherigen nichts aber auch gar nichts mehr gemein hat, weil sich der Begriff des “Privaten” verändert, ausdifferenziert, verschiebt, zerfasert — wird der Privatsphärenschutz nicht zu gewährleisten sein.

Das Problem ist, dass „privat und „öffentlich“ alleine nicht funktionieren. Zwischen Privat und Öffentlich gehört – abgeleitet aus dem Begriff des „Social Web“ das Soziale. Und zwischen scheinbar einheitlicher privater „Identität“ und öffentlicher „Person“ gehört ein Bündel an Socialities.

Schon vor dem Netz zersplitterte der moderne, flexible und mobile Mensch in ein Bündel von (nicht: Identitäten sondern) Socialitäten. Das heißt in ein Bündel von Verhaltensweisen, die mehr oder minder bewusst in Beziehung zu bestimmten anderen Socii eingenommen werden. Es ist eine rein kommunikative Größe. Die Socialität eines Arbeitnehmers deckt sich nicht mit der Sozialität des Ehegatten, Vaters usw.

In jeder dieser Beziehungen ist eine andere, zumeist bewusst zu lernende Sozialität vonnöten. Selbst gegenüber Vorgesetzten, gleichrangigen Kollegen und Untergebenen sind mindestens dreierlei Socialitäten am Werke. Denn diese Socialität ist nicht einfach die soziologische „Rolle“, die ein Pluriversum von angenommenen Identitäten unterstellt. Sondern sie ist Ergebnis einer Kommunikationsbeziehung.

Online-Socialitäten

Das Private ist kein kohärente Sphäre, sondern wird durch die Socialität erschaffen. Es ist das, was in der Socialität nicht vorkommt – oder die Qualität der Socialität entscheidend verändert – etwa wenn eine Beziehung zu einer Kollegin/einem Kollegen beginnt (die in der Socialität der Ehegatten wiederum vermutlich nichts zu suchen hat …), sich eine Exfreundin als neue Kundin vorstellt, ein ehemaliger Schulkamerad Chef wird usw. Was „das Private“ ist, lässt sich nicht fassen.

Bei Facebook beispielsweise connectet sich der User mit Familienangehörigen, Freunden, vielleicht ehemaligen Schulfreunden, Kollegen, ggf. Vorgesetzen – und mit Geschäftspartnern oder Kunden. Das heißt: Ein großes Socialitätenbündel vereinigt sich.

Das kann zu größeren Problemen führen, denn die Socialität etwa des Geschäftspartners stellt andere Anforderungen als der ehemalige Klassenkamerad. Die Socialität des Kollegen stellt andere Anforderungen als die der Geschwister.

Die Bündelungsmöglichkeiten durch Personensuchen stellt vor eine ganz andere Herausforderung. Das Multiversum der Socialitäten, das unter verschiedenen Pseudonymen oder doch zumindest auf verschiedenen Plattformen ausgetragen wurde – wird nun plötzlich in ein „Image“ zusammengeführt, das natürlich vorne und hinten inkongruent ist, weil kein gemeinsamer „Kern“, keine einfache „Identität“ vorhanden ist.

Streetview und die Socialität

Schon jetzt nutzen Auskunfteien wie SchuFa oder Creditreform die Wohngegend um Kreditwürdigkeiten zu berechnen. Schon jetzt klassifizieren die Telefonrechner in Callcentern die „Wertigkeit“ eines eingehenden Anrufs per Telefonnummer nach Wohnlage.

Das macht in dieser Socialität "Versicherung-Kunde" einen gewaltigen Unterschied. Und der Kunde hat keinerlei Macht über die Informationen, die der anderen Seite der Socialität verfügbar sind. Die Entscheidung, dass etwas privat sei, zieht nach sich, dass ich es aus einer Socialität exkludiere. „Privat“ bedeutet vor allem „Verzeihung, das ist mir zu privat, darüber gebe ich keine Auskunft“. Und derlei Privatheiten gibt es zu viele – was privat ist, bestimmt die Socialität. Privatsphäre gegenüber dem Kollegen ist eine andere als gegenüber der Vorgesetzten, als gegenüber dem Kunden, als gegenüber dem ehemaligen Schulfreund.

Wie damit umgehen? Das Netz verlassen oder eine eigene „Netzsocialität“ erschaffen, die von vornherein eine inszenierte Kunstfigur ist? Nichts von alledem ist hilfreich. Deswegen kann die Lösung nur aus einer gesamtgesellschaftlichen Debatte rund um die Socialitäten kommen. Und muss sich fragen: Wie soll das Netz sein und funktionieren? Wer soll was einsehen können?

@ df67f9a7:2d4fc200

Nostr is NOT a social network. Nostr is a network of interconnected social apps. And, since any app is a social app, Nostr is for every app.

---

ONLY Nostr incentivizes inter-connectivity between independent apps, simply by respecting sovereignty at the protocol layer. For end users, sovereignty means that the content they post “to Nostr” will never be owned by the apps that they use. For businesses building apps on Nostr, sovereignty means that every app actually benefits by other apps being on the network. Because sovereignty is respected, users are retained for longer and independent apps thrive far longer on Nostr than on the legacy “black box” social networks.

Social apps thrive on Nostr

Nostr integration provides these benefits for every app :

• Unrestrained access for any app, to all public and private data “on Nostr”. No fees or licenses for harvesting user data from the network.
• Unburdened from liability, when collecting user data with any app. When sending “to Nostr”, end users retain custody of user data while apps never loose access.
• Unlimited free market of search engines and feed algos. Users and brands can create, use, and share any algos or custom feeds. Grow your audience on your own terms.
• Universal open network for all apps. Build any kind of app for any audience, on the same network as other apps for other audiences. Discover new trends from user data.
• Unregulated tech platform. Build your own app and use it as you wish. No gate keepers. No code review. 

Sovereignty is good for business.

Regardless of the network size, a Nostr integrated app can grow its user base MUCH faster and with greater independence BECAUSE of the sovereignty respecting protocol. While end users may retain custody of their identities and data on the network, it’s the apps that determine which data is, or is not, sent to the network. Respect for sovereignty IS the killer feature that ONLY the Nostr protocol provides for apps and for end users.

Because Nostr is permissionless for any app to integrate :

• end users will always have a free market of apps choose from
• apps are free to integrate only as much as benefits their business model.
• apps gain access to more novel data as new apps bring new users to the network.

Because data on Nostr is managed by end users and available to all apps :

• User data looses exclusivity and the demand shifts toward novel insights and information derived from these data.
• Apps are freed from having to be “data pirates”, and can focus on establishing a trusted user base, providing valuable services to satisfied customers, informed by the abundance of user data.
• Apps are incentivized to offload data onto the network, establishing a new paradigm for interconnectivity, where independence is NOT at stake as the network grows.
• New markets spring up to support users with self custody of their data, driven by the reality that apps can have full access without assuming responsibility.
• The market for search and algo tools opens up for independent apps and end users to discover and interact freely with each other.
• The ad based “attention economy” slowly transforms to a value based consumer economy, where the end user is the customer rather than the product being sold.

Even while privacy is respected

Sometimes sovereignty is at odds with privacy, but Nostr allows all parties to win while both are protected.

• For end users sending sensetive data "to Nostr", privacy is assured by encrypting it with their own private keys and/or sending it to private (auth required) relays of their choosing.
• For apps handling private IP or business data, any traditional “black box” infrastructure can be used in the back end to manitain isolation from Nostr.

This means apps and end users remain in control of their own private data, without requiring “big social” as trust provider or data reseller. To access a user's private data, client apps (even search engines, running locally) only need explicit permission from the end user to retrieve or decrypt from Nostr relays. Public data, on the other hand, is freely available for any app or search engine to harvest from any Nostr relay. In either case, user data on the Nostr network is always accessible to client apps, without additional restrictions or fees.

Nostr is for every app.

Adding social to any app makes it a better app. Add reviews for products or services. Add commenting or direct messaging. Share or collaborate on content creation. Nostr integration is straightforward and incremental for any app.

Nostr doesn't define your app's business model ... Nostr 10X's it!

Here's how :

1. Start with your own business and app design. Add Nosrr login.
2. Discover what "kinds" of user data already exists "on Nostr" that your app can ingest and make use of.
3. Decide which "kinds" of data would benefit your business, your users, and the network, if sent "to Nostr".
4. Implement Nostr integration for data kinds and add webs of trust tools for recommendation and discovery.
5. Verify your app is sovereignty respecting in how it handles private data and implements Nostr NIPs.
6. Engage with existing users, and onboard new users from your app, to earn their trust and patronage over Nostr.

For more info and assistance, contact our team of Nostr integration experts.

@ 2f5de000:2f9bcef1

I've wanted to write this piece for months. Not because I have anything against Jack Mallers personally - quite the opposite. But because I've watched a pattern emerge in Bitcoin that mirrors one of the most chilling dynamics in Atlas Shrugged: the systematic destruction of our most productive builders by the very people who should be celebrating them.

We are the looters. And Jack might just be our Hank Rearden.

The Underdog's Dilemma

There's a cruel irony in how we treat success in Bitcoin. We champion the underdog, root for the builder in the garage, celebrate the cypherpunk taking on the establishment. But the moment that underdog succeeds - the moment they scale, grow, and inevitably have to navigate the messy realities of the existing system - we turn on them with the ferocity of the same establishment we claim to oppose.\ \ Jack began building Zap (which evolved into Strike) from his parents home in Chicago. Strike has grown into one of the most seamless fiat-to-bitcoin on-ramps for everyday users. No complexity, just pure utility. From day one, he's operated at a level of transparency that would make most CEO's uncomfortable. He's been building in public, taking feedback, admitting mistakes, and iterating - sometimes within hours of criticism.

The Rearden Parallel

In Atlas Shrugged, Hank Rearden creates Rearden Metal - a revolutionary alloy that's stronger, lighter, and more efficient than anything that came before. Instead of celebration, he faces endless scrutiny, regulation, and demands to prove is worthiness. The people who benefit from his innovation spend their time questioning his motives, dissecting his business practices, and demanding he justify his success.

Sound familiar?

Jack comes from a finance background - his father and grandfather were in the industry. This isn't a liability; it's an asset. He understands the beast we're fighting. He's been a Bitcoiner since 2013 with a spotless track record in a space littered with exit scams and broken promises. His values align with proof of work, individualism, and the radical idea that bitcoin is for everyone.

Yet when he helps launch 21 Capital, we don't see innovation - we see betrayal. When he navigates regulatory requirements to build products that can actually reach mainstream adoption, we don't see pragmatism - we see capitulation.

The Scarred Perspective

Our skepticism isn't entirely unfounded. We've been burned before. Mt. Gox, FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Celcius, Terra/ LUNA, BlockFi, Bitconnect, Voyager, QuadrigaCX - the graveyard of Bitcoin is littered with the corpses of trusted institutions. We've learned, painfully, that trust must be earned and verified.

But somewhere along the way, our healthy skepticism has metastasized into destructive paranoia. We've become so focused on protecting ourselves from the next SBF that we're attacking the people building the future we claim to want.

I'm guilty of this myself. I've made scathing attacks on my Nostr feed, comparing Jack to SBF, scrutinising contract clauses about re-hypothecation, and questioning his every move privately. I was viewing his actions through the lens of collective trauma rather than the reality of his long track record.

The Looters Paradox

Here's the uncomfortable truth: we're not just passive observers in this drama. We're active participants. We're the looters.

In Atlas Shrugged, the looters don't necessarily steal directly. They steal time, energy, and focus. They create bureaucracy, demnd endless justification, and burden the productive with the weight of constant explanation. They don't build competing products - they just tear down what others have built.

Everytime we demand Jack explain his business model for the hundredth time, we're stealing his time. Every time we scrutinize his partnerships without offering alternatives, we're creating bureaucracy . Everytime we attack his character rather than his arguments, we're furthering the system we claim to oppose.

The free market will create products whether we like them or not. People will build services that use bitcoin as collateral, create lending products, and navigate regulatory frameworks. The question isn't whether these products will exist - it's whether they'll be built by people who share our values or by those who don't.

The Atlantis Risk

The producers eventually withdraw from society in Atlas Shrugged, retreating to Galt's Gulch (Atlantis) and leaving the looters to face the consequences of their destructive behaviour. The economy collapses because the people who actually build things decided it wasn't worth the hassle anymore.

We're walking dangerously close to this precipice in Bitcoin. We're creating an environment where our most capable builders might just decide it's not worth it. Where the hassle of dealing with our constant scrutiny and bad-faith attacks outweighs the mission of building the future.

Jack has been more patient with our criticism than we deserve. He's addressed concerns publicly, changed the course when necessary, and continued building despite the noise. But patience has limits. At some point, even the most mission-driven builders will ask themselves: "Why am I doing this?"

The Path Forward

I don't know enough about finance to fully understand everything Jack is building with 21 Capital. Neither do most of his critics. But I know enough about Bitcoin to recognise someone who's been fighting the good fight for over a decade.

This doesn't mean we should trust blindly. It doesn't mean we should stop asking questions or demanding transparency. But it does mean we should approach our builders with the same benefit of the doubt we'd want for ourselves.

We need to distinguish between healthy skepticism and destructive paranoia. Between holding people accountable and tearing them down. Between being vigilant and being looters.

The fiat system is the real enemy here. It's massive, entrenched, and infinitely resourcesful. It will adapt, co-opt, and corrupt everything it touches. Fighting it requires builders who are willing to get their hands dirty, navigate imperfect systems, and make pragmatic compromises while holding onto their core values.

We can continue to be looters, tearing down what we don't understand and driving our best builders toward their own version of Atlantis. Or we can be what we claim to be: supporters of the free market, believers of proof of work, and champions of those building the future.

Don't trust. Verify. But remember: verification works both ways.

@ 318ebaba:9a262eae

When connecting to multiple relays in the Nostr protocol, users may encounter several challenges that can affect their overall experience. Here are some of the key issues:

Challenges of Connecting to Multiple Relays

• Performance Issues: The lightweight design of Nostr relays can lead to performance bottlenecks, especially when many users are connected simultaneously. This can result in slow message delivery or even failures in posting messages if the relays are overwhelmed[1][2][32].

• Reliability and Connectivity: Users may experience connectivity problems with certain relays, which can lead to inconsistent access to messages or delays in communication. If a relay goes offline or has connectivity issues, it can disrupt the flow of information, making it difficult for users to send or receive messages reliably[3][4][18].

• Data Synchronization: As users connect to multiple relays, ensuring that data is synchronized across these relays can be challenging. Inconsistent data states may arise if different relays store messages differently or if there are delays in message propagation. This can lead to confusion about which messages have been sent or received[7][41].

• Configuration Complexity: Managing connections to multiple relays requires a certain level of technical knowledge. Users need to configure their clients properly to connect to various relays, which can be daunting for those less familiar with the technology. Misconfigurations can lead to connection failures or suboptimal performance[4][21].

• Spam and Quality Control: With the open nature of Nostr, some relays may be more susceptible to spam or low-quality content. Users connecting to multiple relays might encounter a higher volume of irrelevant or unwanted messages, which can detract from the overall user experience[6][32].

• Security Concerns: When using multiple relays, users must be cautious about the security of their connections. Not all relays may implement the same level of security, and connecting to less secure relays could expose users to risks such as data interception or unauthorized access to their messages[26][27].

In summary, while connecting to multiple relays in Nostr offers benefits such as redundancy and improved access to information, users must navigate various challenges related to performance, reliability, configuration, and security. Addressing these issues is crucial for a smooth and effective experience on the Nostr network.

[1] https://forum.dfinity.org/t/introducing-replicatr-enhancing-nostr-with-internet-computer-integration/31861 [2] https://medium.com/coinmonks/a-deep-dive-into-nostr-clients-with-technical-insights-and-code-snippets-b1666bb11fac [3] nostr:nevent1qqsfvjvg73wxdn7mda28m704r2zv9lnzlcdgh8r0g52lfvy2wj7uw4czyq32rylmsmre84lhxdypy6jlu4dt3fxfwkq9a0p0lqdl9y8hsp0hur4fuw4 [4] https://www.reddit.com/r/nostr/comments/1e6nm68/new_nostream_relay_created_problems_with_publish/ [5] https://www.lynalden.com/the-power-of-nostr/ [6] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/technical/how-nostr-can-improve-bitcoin-privacy [7] https://barelybuggy.blog/2024/11/26/mostr-offline/ [8] https://github.com/scsibug/nostr-rs-relay/issues/126 [9] https://community.umbrel.com/t/nostr-relay-troubleshooting/17828 [10] https://research.dorahacks.io/2024/04/30/nostr-relay-incentive/ [11] https://community.start9.com/t/issue-confirming-nostr-relay/1682 [12] https://arxiv.org/html/2402.05709v1 [13] https://community.umbrel.com/t/nostr-relay-not-connecting/11401 [14] https://www.purplerelay.com/troubleshooting-common-issues-with-nostr-relay-server-a-users-guide/ [15] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35694029 [16] https://substack.com/home/post/p-158872714?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web [17] https://stacker.news/items/142013 [18] https://www.reddit.com/r/nostr/comments/1h6admk/are_these_relays_working/ [19] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33746360 [20] https://github.com/scsibug/nostr-rs-relay/issues/195 [21] https://www.purplerelay.com/how-to-run-a-nostr-relay-a-step-by-step-guide/ [22] https://denostr.medium.com/the-future-of-social-communication-nostrs-origins-and-the-next-destination-in-social-networking-27f0c901d7ae [23] nostr:nevent1qqsqwklh29cvf3z0skhh77xyqf3m53xkppcttf3c8nuc2jqteulfx0czyqcgr7epv9hha2v9afp99l5wl0ljna0zum59fzyhl9v8pgv5xlhf5ava642 [24] https://www.reddit.com/r/nostr/comments/15fyr6r/pervasive_private_key_sharing_seems_dangerous/ [25] https://whtwnd.com/agoracitizen.network/3l2fysaripd2q [26] https://ron.stoner.com/nostr_Security_and_Privacy/ [27] https://forums.puri.sm/t/about-what-is-nostr/20764 [28] https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/issues/107 [29] https://medium.com/@volodymyrpavlyshyn/security-features-of-nostr-a0276a22e815 [30] nostr:nevent1qqspd8fh3tplxtfhjpka3y3glzh63v3ygsdhacyq8dvyrnxtvl09lpczyr2v7dprke9lad2qk0svug55vxguqv7n3dwn9vm63u8n5n84znxjxedjf6c [31] nostr:nevent1qqs8e2su6n8m2xtg45qdjw7rdcq6w3g5guvt085h52qhg25wxn755sczyrh26kg89z95jqaz4xkex7kaw2t36twtc75vmrfx2k3p3jqvhfa8vzan82f [32] https://www.cointribune.com/en/nostr-et-la-censure-pourquoi-un-reseau-social-decentralise-est-essentiel-2/ [33] nostr:nevent1qqsv86d756zcw32x0zcvqmr924y5sltvwqud0dywny83ndee30zzrmczyrh26kg89z95jqaz4xkex7kaw2t36twtc75vmrfx2k3p3jqvhfa8vwpfv29 [34] https://github.com/nbd-wtf/nostr-tools/issues [35] https://www.voltage.cloud/blog/the-growth-of-nostr-the-era-of-decentralization [36] https://medium.com/@BingVentures/status-quo-challenges-and-prospect-of-decentralized-social-networks-18f9584f2e8d [37] https://www.reddit.com/r/RedditAlternatives/comments/14s8ao4/greetings_im_here_to_tell_you_about_nostr_a/ [38] https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/nostr-the-importance-of-censorship-resistant-communication-for-innovation-and-human-progress- [39] https://github.com/mayneyao/eidos/issues/129 [40] https://www.reddit.com/r/nostr/comments/115a8et/data_duplication_and_distribution_in_nostr_relays/ [41] https://github.com/open-nostr/nostar [42] nostr:nevent1qqsryg8zuc9rdwldat385al24mdt56wanc6g6hfymy8l9tgtmzsc4nspzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhg85cx73 [43] https://ckbcn.xlog.app/Nostr-sheng-tai-fa-zhan-xian-zhuang-ji-wen-ti?locale=en [44] nostr:naddr1qqc92mnvda3kk6twvuk5ummnw3ez6ued2phhgetww35kzmpdwa5hg6pdfehhgetyv43kktt08p5hscnkqgsr7acdvhf6we9fch94qwhpy0nza36e3tgrtkpku25ppuu80f69kfqrqsqqqa28aknkml

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

Last post, I touched on the subject of what do you say to those going through trials and tribulations, but as I read Job, it seemed like there was more to say on the subject of how Christians are to respond to those who are suffering. The original passage of inspiration was this.

Don’t Be A Miserable Comforter

Then Job answered,

“I have heard many such things;\ Sorry comforters are you all.\ Is there no limit to windy words?\ Or what plagues you that you answer?\ I too could speak like you,\ If I were in your place.\ I could compose words against you\ And shake my head at you.\ I could strengthen you with my mouth,\ And the solace of my lips could lessen your pain. (Job 16:1-5)

Job was suffering. His friends came with the intention of comforting Job. Job vented his frustrations and problems understanding God’s justice. His friends tried to correct Job’s honest questions. These corrections escalated to the point of accusing Job of heinous sins and saying that everything that had happened to Job was his fault.

Job rightly said, “If I were in your place, I could compose words against you, and shake my head at you.” Sometimes we have to show mercy while a person is working through their feelings and confusion. Although some hardships are the consequences or punishment for sins, many (probably most) are not. We, as Christians, are promised trials. We should not be surprised when we go through trials.

Job also compares two ways of responding to a fellow believer going through trials. He says, “I could strengthen you with my mouth, and the solace of my lips could lessen your pain.” We can use our words to encourage and strengthen those who are suffering.

He also accuses his visitors of “Sorry comforters are you all. Is there no limit to windy words?” This reminds me of a traditional saying, “If you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all.” Some of us want to fix everything. Sometimes we need to just listen. We don’t have to speak an answer for everything. In these uncomfortable situations, it is easy to start with a brief, Biblical answer, but then to start filling the silence with our own words to fill the silence. This can harm of everyone.

Job’s friends initial comments were not bad and were mostly true, but the more they talked, the more they went off track and the more harm they did. We want to lessen their pain, not be sorry comforters.

Of course this doesn’t mean that we can’t share God’s word. It doesn’t mean we can’t acknowledge obvious sins that are known by all parties. It does mean that all words should be an encouragement to lead them into closer fellowship with God.

Job again comments about his friends.

Even now, behold, my witness is in heaven,\ **And my advocate is on high.\ My friends are my scoffers;\ My eye weeps to God.\ O that a man might plead with God\ As a man with his neighbor!\ For when a few years are past,\ I shall go the way of no return. (Job 16:19-22) {emphasis mine}

Job, being a godly man, puts his trust in God. Notice the pattern: God, friends, God.

And my advocate is on high.\ My friends are my scoffers;\ My eye weeps to God.

Despite the scoffing and harm done by his friends, he keeps his eye on God as his advocate and the one he turns to in sorrow. In the case of Job, he is able to lean on God despite the harm done by his friends. Those will lesser faith might have been pushed away from God by his friends words.

Love One Another

In the New Testament, we are told:

“A new commandment I give to you, that you love one another, even as I have loved you, that you also love one another. By this all men will know that you are My disciples, if you have love for one another.” (John 13:34-35)

Our every word and action should be loving. That doesn’t mean ignoring sin, but it does mean every word and action should be used to draw a person into closer relationship with their God and Savior. In the case of a person who is sinning, Jesus set a perfect example.

The scribes and the Pharisees brought a woman caught in adultery, and having set her in the center of the court, they*said to Him, “Teacher, this woman has been caught in adultery, in the very act. Now in the Law Moses commanded us to stone such women; what then do You say?” They were saying this, testing Him, so that they might have grounds for accusing Him. But Jesus stooped down and with His finger wrote on the ground. But when they persisted in asking Him, He straightened up, and said to them, “He who is without sin among you, let him be the first to throw a stone at her.” Again He stooped down and wrote on the ground. When they heard it, they began to go out one by one, beginning with the older ones, and He was left alone, and the woman, where she was, in the center of the court. Straightening up, Jesus said to her, “Woman, where are they? Did no one condemn you?” She said, “No one, Lord.” And Jesus said, “I do not condemn you, either. Go. From now on sin no more.” (John 8:3-11)

What did Jesus do:

1. He protected the accused from those trying to use, abuse, and torment her.

2. He did not deny her sin, but encouraged her accusers to acknowledge their own sins.

3. He encouraged her to “sin no more.”

This woman knew she had sinned. She did not need to be reminded of it. She didn’t deny it; she knew. Because she and everyone else knew her sin, there was no need to bring it up again. Jesus used this situation to help her accusers understand their own sin and to lead her into repentance and salvation. The gentle correction was used to lead her to a better way.

When we speak to someone in trials, whether self-inflicted, externally caused, or a standard trial common to all men, our goal should be to uplift and draw to Jesus. We should have mercy on the suffering and not add to their suffering.

No matter the case, we need to carefully use our words for love and mercy.

Beloved, let us love one another, for love is from God; and everyone who loves is born of God and knows God. The one who does not love does not know God, for God is love. By this the love of God was manifested in us, that God has sent His only begotten Son into the world so that we might live through Him. In this is love, not that we loved God, but that He loved us and sent His Son to be the propitiation for our sins. Beloved, if God so loved us, we also ought to love one another. (1 John 4:7-11)

Dealing With Sin & Repentance

In 1 & 2 Corinthians, Paul deals with a situation of extreme sin. In 1 Corinthians he rebukes the church for allowing this heinous sin within their church body.

It is actually reported that there is immorality among you, and immorality of such a kind as does not exist even among the Gentiles, that someone has his father’s wife. You have become arrogant and have not mourned instead, so that the one who had done this deed would be removed from your midst.

For I, on my part, though absent in body but present in spirit, have already judged him who has so committed this, as though I were present. In the name of our Lord Jesus, when you are assembled, and I with you in spirit, with the power of our Lord Jesus, I have decided to deliver such a one to Satan for the destruction of his flesh, so that his spirit may be saved in the day of the Lord Jesus. (1 Corinthians 5:1-5) {emphasis mine}

This unrepentant sin could not be allowed to remain in the body because it could spread among God’s people and because it harmed God’s glory. At the same time, the motivation for removing him from the body was not to remove him from a relationship with God. It was to cause consequences in the hopes that the man would return to Jesus.

In 2 Corinthians, we find that he does repent of his son and seek to come back into the fellowship of believers.

For out of much affliction and anguish of heart I wrote to you with many tears; not so that you would be made sorrowful, but that you might know the love which I have especially for you.

But if any has caused sorrow, he has caused sorrow not to me, but in some degree—in order not to say too much—to all of you. Sufficient for such a one is this punishment which was inflicted by the majority, so that on the contrary you should rather forgive and comfort him, otherwise such a one might be overwhelmed by excessive sorrow. Wherefore I urge you to reaffirm your love for him. For to this end also I wrote, so that I might put you to the test, whether you are obedient in all things. But one whom you forgive anything, I forgive also; for indeed what I have forgiven, if I have forgiven anything, I did it for your sakes in the presence of Christ, so that no advantage would be taken of us by Satan, for we are not ignorant of his schemes. (2 Corinthians 2:4-11) {emphasis mine}

Once a sinner repents, we are to immediately forgive and comfort them and welcome them back into the fellowship of believers. We are not to remind them of their previous sins and overwhelm them with excessive sorrow, but are to reaffirm our love for them. Any punishment was for correction, not to harm or cause them pain. We should seek the good of those who sinned. We should welcome them back with open arms. We should forgive as we were forgiven by God.

All of our words and actions toward others, whether the most godly saint or the most reprehensible sinner, should be to the goal of drawing them closer to the Savior and helping them to trust in God’s goodness, wisdom, and strength.

May the God of Heaven carry your burdens and help you to help carry the burdens of those around you. May Our Savior help us to be a godly encouragement to the suffering who draws them into closer fellowship with the Savior. May the Holy Spirt give us discernment in how to best encourage the suffering and to help them rest in Jesus.

Trust Jesus

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

Today was one of the best days I've had in a while. We had a long family outing, so lots of steps and sunshine and fresh air. I ate very well. No junk food at all. The only snacks I had were organic dark chocolate dipped in hodl butter.

Things to keep working on: I didn't sleep great (blame the Stanley Cup going to OT) and I didn't stick to my eating window.

How about you stackers? Let's here your ~HealthAndFitness triumphs and pitfalls.

https://stacker.news/items/1000285

@ 866e0139:6a9334e5

Autor: John J. Mearsheimer. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben und erschien zuerst auf dem Blog des Autors. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier.**

Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.

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Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.

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Die Frage, wer für den Krieg in der Ukraine verantwortlich ist, ist seit dem Einmarsch Russlands in die Ukraine am 24. Februar 2022 ein sehr umstrittenes Thema.Die Antwort auf diese Frage ist von enormer Bedeutung, denn der Krieg war aus verschiedenen Gründen eine Katastrophe, von denen die wichtigste darin besteht, dass die Ukraine praktisch zerstört wurde. Sie hat einen beträchtlichen Teil ihres Territoriums verloren und wird wahrscheinlich noch mehr verlieren, ihre Wirtschaft liegt in Trümmern, eine riesige Zahl von Ukrainern wurde intern vertrieben oder ist aus dem Land geflohen, und sie hat Hunderttausende von Opfern zu beklagen. Natürlich hat auch Russland einen hohen Blutzoll gezahlt. Auf strategischer Ebene sind die Beziehungen zwischen Russland und Europa, ganz zu schweigen von Russland und der Ukraine, auf absehbare Zeit vergiftet, was bedeutet, dass die Gefahr eines größeren Krieges in Europa auch dann noch bestehen wird, wenn der Krieg in der Ukraine zu einem eingefrorenen Konflikt wird. Wer die Verantwortung für diese Katastrophe trägt, ist eine Frage, die nicht so schnell verschwinden wird, sondern eher noch an Bedeutung gewinnen dürfte, je mehr Menschen das Ausmaß der Katastrophe bewusst wird.

Die gängige Meinung im Westen ist, dass Wladimir Putin für den Krieg in der Ukraine verantwortlich sei. Die Invasion habe darauf abgezielt, die gesamte Ukraine zu erobern und sie zu einem Teil eines größeren Russlands zu machen, so die Argumentation. Sobald dieses Ziel erreicht sei, würden die Russen ein Imperium in Osteuropa errichten, ähnlich wie es die Sowjetunion nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg getan habe. Daher stelle Putin letztlich eine Bedrohung für den Westen dar, der man mit aller Macht begegnen müsse. Kurz gesagt, Putin ist ein Imperialist mit einem Masterplan, der sich nahtlos in die reiche russische Tradition einfügt.

Das alternative Argument, mit dem ich mich identifiziere und das im Westen eindeutig in der Minderheit ist, lautet, dass die Vereinigten Staaten und ihre Verbündeten den Krieg provoziert haben. Damit soll natürlich nicht geleugnet werden, dass Russland in die Ukraine einmarschiert ist und den Krieg begonnen hat. Die Hauptursache des Konflikts ist jedoch der NATO-Beschluss, die Ukraine in das Bündnis aufzunehmen, was praktisch alle russischen Führer als existenzielle Bedrohung ansehen, die beseitigt werden muss. Die NATO-Erweiterung ist jedoch Teil einer umfassenderen Strategie, die darauf abzielt, die Ukraine zu einem westlichen Bollwerk an Russlands Grenze zu machen. Ein Beitritt Kiews zur Europäischen Union (EU) und die Förderung einer farbigen Revolution in der Ukraine – die Umwandlung des Landes in eine prowestliche liberale Demokratie – sind die beiden anderen Säulen dieser Politik. Die russische Führung fürchtet alle drei Bereiche, aber am meisten fürchtet sie die NATO-Erweiterung. Um dieser Bedrohung zu begegnen, hat Russland am 24. Februar 2022 einen Präventivkrieg begonnen.

Die Debatte darüber, wer den Ukraine-Krieg verursacht hat, ist kürzlich aufgeflammt, als zwei prominente westliche Politiker – der ehemalige US-Präsident Donald Trump und der prominente britische Abgeordnete Nigel Farage – das Argument vorbrachten, dass die NATO-Erweiterung die treibende Kraft hinter dem Konflikt sei. Es überrascht nicht, dass ihre Äußerungen von den Verfechtern der konventionellen Meinung mit einem heftigen Gegenangriff beantwortet wurden. Es ist auch erwähnenswert, dass der scheidende NATO-Generalsekretär Jens Stoltenberg im vergangenen Jahr zweimal sagte, dass „Präsident Putin diesen Krieg begonnen hat, weil er die Tür der NATO schließen und der Ukraine das Recht verweigern wollte, ihren eigenen Weg zu wählen“. Kaum jemand im Westen hat dieses bemerkenswerte Eingeständnis des NATO-Chefs in Frage gestellt, und er hat es auch nicht zurückgezogen.

Mein Ziel ist es, einen Überblick über die wichtigsten Punkte zu geben, die die Ansicht stützen, dass Putin nicht in die Ukraine einmarschiert ist, weil er ein Imperialist ist, der die Ukraine zu einem Teil eines größeren Russlands machen will, sondern vor allem wegen der NATO-Erweiterung und der Bemühungen des Westens, die Ukraine zu einer westlichen Hochburg an der Grenze Russlands zu machen.

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DIE FRIEDENSTAUBE FLIEGT AUCH IN IHR POSTFACH!

In Kürze folgt eine Mail an alle Genossenschafter, danke für die Geduld und das Verständnis!

Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt, vorerst für alle kostenfrei, wir starten gänzlich ohne Paywall. (Die Bezahlabos fangen erst zu laufen an, wenn ein Monetarisierungskonzept für die Inhalte steht). Sie wollen der Genossenschaft beitreten oder uns unterstützen? Mehr Infos hier oder am Ende des Textes.

Lassen Sie mich mit den sieben wichtigsten Gründen für die Ablehnung der herkömmlichen Meinung beginnen.

ERSTENS gibt es schlicht und ergreifend keine Beweise aus der Zeit vor dem 24. Februar 2022, dass Putin die Ukraine erobern und in Russland eingliedern wollte. Vertreter der gängigen Meinung können keine Schriftstücke oder Aussagen von Putin nennen, die darauf hindeuten, dass er die Ukraine erobern wollte.

Wenn man sie zu diesem Punkt befragt, liefern die Verfechter der konventionellen Meinung Hinweise, die wenig oder gar nichts mit Putins Motiven für die Invasion der Ukraine zu tun haben. Einige betonen zum Beispiel, dass er sagte, die Ukraine sei ein „künstlicher Staat“ oder kein „echter Staat“. Solche undurchsichtigen Äußerungen sagen jedoch nichts über die Gründe für seinen Kriegseintritt aus. Dasselbe gilt für Putins Aussage, er betrachte Russen und Ukrainer als „ein Volk“ mit einer gemeinsamen Geschichte. Andere weisen darauf hin, dass er den Zusammenbruch der Sowjetunion als „die größte geopolitische Katastrophe des Jahrhunderts“ bezeichnete. Aber Putin sagte auch: „Wer die Sowjetunion nicht vermisst, hat kein Herz. Wer sie zurückhaben will, hat kein Hirn.“ Andere wiederum verweisen auf eine Rede, in der er erklärte: „Die moderne Ukraine wurde vollständig von Russland geschaffen, genauer gesagt, vom bolschewistischen, kommunistischen Russland.“ Aber das ist kaum ein Beweis dafür, dass er an der Eroberung der Ukraine interessiert war. Außerdem sagte er in der gleichen Rede: „Natürlich können wir die Ereignisse der Vergangenheit nicht ändern, aber wir müssen sie zumindest offen und ehrlich zugeben.“

Um zu beweisen, dass Putin die gesamte Ukraine erobern und Russland einverleiben wollte, muss man nachweisen, dass er 1) dieses Ziel für erstrebenswert hielt, 2) es für machbar hielt und 3) die Absicht hatte, dieses Ziel zu verfolgen. Es gibt in den öffentlichen Aufzeichnungen keine Beweise dafür, dass Putin erwog, geschweige denn beabsichtigte, die Ukraine als unabhängigen Staat zu beenden und sie zu einem Teil Großrusslands zu machen, als er am 24. Februar 2022 seine Truppen in die Ukraine schickte.

Tatsächlich gibt es erhebliche Beweise dafür, dass Putin die Ukraine als unabhängiges Land anerkannte. In seinem bekannten Artikel vom 12. Juli 2021 über die russisch-ukrainischen Beziehungen, der von Befürwortern der konventionellen Meinung oft als Beweis für seine imperialen Ambitionen angeführt wird, sagt er dem ukrainischen Volk: „Ihr wollt einen eigenen Staat gründen: Ihr seid willkommen!“ Zur Frage, wie Russland die Ukraine behandeln sollte, schreibt er: „Es gibt nur eine Antwort: mit Respekt.“ Er schließt seinen langen Artikel mit den folgenden Worten ab: „Und wie die Ukraine aussehen wird – das müssen ihre Bürger entscheiden.“ Diese Aussagen stehen im direkten Widerspruch zu der Behauptung, Putin wolle die Ukraine in ein größeres Russland eingliedern.

In demselben Artikel vom 12. Juli 2021 und erneut in einer wichtigen Rede am 21. Februar 2022 betonte Putin, dass Russland „die neue geopolitische Realität, die nach der Auflösung der UdSSR entstanden ist“, akzeptiere. Diesen Punkt wiederholte er ein drittes Mal am 24. Februar 2022, als er ankündigte, Russland werde in die Ukraine einmarschieren. Insbesondere erklärte er: „Wir haben nicht vor, ukrainisches Territorium zu besetzen“, und machte deutlich, dass er die ukrainische Souveränität respektiere, allerdings nur bis zu einem gewissen Punkt: „Russland kann sich nicht sicher fühlen, sich nicht entwickeln und nicht existieren, wenn es sich einer ständigen Bedrohung durch das Territorium der heutigen Ukraine ausgesetzt sieht.“ Das heißt, Putin war nicht daran interessiert, die Ukraine zu einem Teil Russlands zu machen, sondern er wollte sicherstellen, dass sie nicht zu einem „Sprungbrett“ für westliche Aggressionen gegen Russland wird.

ZWEITENS gibt es keinerlei Hinweise dafür, dass Putin eine Marionettenregierung für die Ukraine vorbereitete, in Kiew prorussische Führungspersönlichkeiten aufbaute oder irgendwelche politischen Maßnahmen verfolgte, die eine Besetzung des gesamten Landes und dessen letztendliche Eingliederung in Russland ermöglichen würden.

Diese Fakten widersprechen der Behauptung, Putin sei daran interessiert gewesen, die Ukraine von der Landkarte zu tilgen. 

**DRITTENS: Putin hatte nicht annähernd genug Truppen, um die Ukraine zu erobern. **

Beginnen wir mit den Gesamtzahlen. Ich schätze seit langem, dass die Russen mit höchstens 190.000 Soldaten in die Ukraine einmarschiert sind. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, der derzeitige Oberbefehlshaber der ukrainischen Streitkräfte, sagte kürzlich in einem Interview mit The Guardian, dass die russische Invasionstruppe nur 100.000 Mann stark war. The Guardian hatte diese Zahl bereits vor Beginn des Krieges genannt. Es ist unmöglich, dass eine Truppe von 100.000 oder 190.000 Mann die gesamte Ukraine erobern, besetzen und in ein Großrussland eingliedern könnte.

Bedenken Sie, dass die Wehrmacht beim deutschen Überfall auf die westliche Hälfte Polens im September 1939 etwa 1,5 Millionen Mann zählte. Die Ukraine ist geografisch mehr als dreimal so groß wie die westliche Hälfte Polens im Jahr 1939, und in der Ukraine leben im Jahr 2022 fast doppelt so viele Menschen wie in Polen zum Zeitpunkt des deutschen Überfalls. Wenn wir die Schätzung von General Syrskyi akzeptieren, dass 100.000 russische Truppen im Jahr 2022 in die Ukraine einmarschierten, bedeutet dies, dass Russland über eine Invasionsstreitmacht verfügte, die 1/15 der Größe der deutschen Streitkräfte war, die in Polen einmarschierten. Und diese kleine russische Armee marschierte in ein Land ein, das sowohl territorial als auch von der Bevölkerungszahl her viel größer war als Polen.

Abgesehen von den Zahlen stellt sich die Frage nach der Qualität der russischen Armee. Zunächst einmal handelte es sich um eine militärische Streitkraft, die in erster Linie dazu bestimmt war, Russland vor einer Invasion zu schützen. Es handelte sich nicht um eine Armee, die für eine Großoffensive zur Eroberung der gesamten Ukraine, geschweige denn zur Bedrohung des übrigen Europas, gerüstet war. Außerdem ließ die Qualität der Kampftruppen zu wünschen übrig, da die Russen nicht mit einem Krieg rechneten, als sich die Krise im Frühjahr 2021 zuzuspitzen begann. Daher hatten sie kaum Gelegenheit, eine qualifizierte Invasionstruppe auszubilden. Sowohl qualitativ als auch quantitativ war die russische Invasionstruppe nicht annähernd mit der deutschen Wehrmacht der späten 1930er und frühen 1940er Jahre vergleichbar.

Man könnte argumentieren, dass die russische Führung dachte, das ukrainische Militär sei so klein und so unterlegen, dass ihre Armee die ukrainischen Streitkräfte leicht besiegen und das ganze Land erobern könnte. Tatsächlich wussten Putin und seine Leutnants sehr wohl, dass die Vereinigten Staaten und ihre europäischen Verbündeten das ukrainische Militär seit Ausbruch der Krise am 22. Februar 2014 bewaffnet und ausgebildet hatten. Die große Befürchtung Moskaus war, dass die Ukraine de facto Mitglied der NATO werden würde. Außerdem beobachteten die russischen Führer, wie die ukrainische Armee, die größer war als ihre Invasionstruppen, zwischen 2014 und 2022 im Donbass erfolgreich kämpfte. Ihnen war sicherlich klar, dass das ukrainische Militär kein Papiertiger war, der schnell und entschlossen besiegt werden konnte, zumal es über eine starke Rückendeckung durch den Westen verfügte.

Schließlich waren die Russen im Laufe des Jahres 2022 gezwungen, ihre Armee aus der Oblast Charkiw und aus dem westlichen Teil der Oblast Cherson abzuziehen. Damit gab Moskau Gebiete auf, die seine Armee in den ersten Tagen des Krieges erobert hatte. Es steht außer Frage, dass der Druck der ukrainischen Armee eine Rolle dabei spielte, den russischen Rückzug zu erzwingen. Vor allem aber erkannten Putin und seine Generäle, dass sie nicht über genügend Kräfte verfügten, um das gesamte Gebiet, das ihre Armee in Charkiw und Cherson erobert hatte, zu halten. Also zogen sie sich zurück und schufen besser kontrollierbare Verteidigungspositionen. Dies ist kaum das Verhalten, das man von einer Armee erwarten würde, die aufgebaut und ausgebildet wurde, um die gesamte Ukraine zu erobern und zu besetzen. Tatsächlich war sie für diesen Zweck nicht konzipiert und konnte daher diese Herkulesaufgabe nicht bewältigen.

VIERTENS: In den Monaten vor Kriegsbeginn versuchte Putin, eine diplomatische Lösung für die sich anbahnende Krise zu finden.

Am 17. Dezember 2021 sandte Putin ein Schreiben an Präsident Joe Biden und NATO-Chef Stoltenberg, in dem er eine Lösung der Krise auf der Grundlage einer schriftlichen Garantie vorschlug, dass: 1) die Ukraine der NATO nicht beitreten würde, 2) keine Angriffswaffen in der Nähe der russischen Grenzen stationiert würden und 3) die seit 1997 nach Osteuropa verlegten NATO-Truppen und -Ausrüstung nach Westeuropa zurückverlegt würden. Was auch immer man von der Machbarkeit einer Einigung auf der Grundlage von Putins Eröffnungsforderungen halten mag, über die die Vereinigten Staaten keine Verhandlungen führen wollten, es zeigt, dass er versuchte, einen Krieg zu vermeiden.

FÜNFTENS: Unmittelbar nach Beginn des Krieges hat Russland der Ukraine die Hand gereicht, um Verhandlungen zur Beendigung des Krieges und zur Ausarbeitung eines Modus Vivendi zwischen den beiden Ländern aufzunehmen.

Die Verhandlungen zwischen Kiew und Moskau begannen in Weißrussland nur vier Tage nach dem Einmarsch russischer Truppen in die Ukraine. Diese weißrussische Schiene wurde schließlich durch eine israelische und eine Istanbuler Schiene ersetzt. Alle verfügbaren Beweise deuten darauf hin, dass Russland ernsthaft verhandelte und nicht an der Übernahme ukrainischen Territoriums interessiert war, mit Ausnahme der Krim, die es 2014 annektiert hatte, und möglicherweise des Donbass. Die Verhandlungen endeten, als die Ukrainer auf Drängen Großbritanniens und der Vereinigten Staaten die Verhandlungen abbrachen, die zum Zeitpunkt ihrer Beendigung gute Fortschritte gemacht hatten.

Darüber hinaus berichtet Putin, dass er, als die Verhandlungen stattfanden und Fortschritte machten, gebeten wurde, als Geste des guten Willens die russischen Truppen aus dem Gebiet um Kiew abzuziehen, was er am 29. März 2022 tat. Keine westliche Regierung und kein ehemaliger Politiker hat diese Behauptung Putins angefochten, die in direktem Widerspruch zu seiner Behauptung steht, er wolle die gesamte Ukraine erobern.

SECHSTENS: Abgesehen von der Ukraine gibt es nicht den geringsten Hinweis darauf, dass Putin die Eroberung anderer osteuropäischer Länder ins Auge gefasst hat.

Außerdem ist die russische Armee nicht einmal groß genug, um die gesamte Ukraine zu überrennen, ganz zu schweigen von dem Versuch, die baltischen Staaten, Polen und Rumänien zu erobern. Außerdem sind alle diese Länder NATO-Mitglieder, was mit ziemlicher Sicherheit einen Krieg mit den Vereinigten Staaten und ihren Verbündeten bedeuten würde.

**SIEBTENS: Kaum jemand im Westen behauptete, Putin habe imperiale Ambitionen, seit er im Jahr 2000 die Macht übernahm, bis zum Beginn der Ukraine-Krise am 22. Februar 2014. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt wurde er plötzlich zum imperialen Aggressor. Warum? Weil die westlichen Staats- und Regierungschefs einen Grund brauchten, ihm die Schuld für die Krise zu geben. **

Der wohl beste Beweis dafür, dass Putin in den ersten vierzehn Jahren seiner Amtszeit nicht als ernsthafte Bedrohung angesehen wurde, ist die Tatsache, dass er auf dem NATO-Gipfel im April 2008 in Bukarest ein geladener Gast war, auf dem das Bündnis bekannt gab, dass die Ukraine und Georgien schließlich Mitglieder werden würden. Putin war natürlich erzürnd über diese Entscheidung und machte seinem Unmut Luft. Sein Widerstand gegen diese Ankündigung hatte jedoch kaum Auswirkungen auf Washington, da das russische Militär als zu schwach eingeschätzt wurde, um eine weitere NATO-Erweiterung zu verhindern, so wie es auch bei den Erweiterungswellen von 1999 und 2004 zu schwach gewesen war, um sie aufzuhalten. Der Westen glaubte, er könne Russland die NATO-Erweiterung noch einmal aufzwingen.

Außerdem war die NATO-Erweiterung vor dem 22. Februar 2014 nicht darauf ausgerichtet, Russland einzudämmen. Angesichts des traurigen Zustands der russischen Militärmacht war Moskau nicht in der Lage, die Ukraine zu erobern, geschweige denn eine revanchistische Politik in Osteuropa zu verfolgen. Der ehemalige US-Botschafter in Moskau, Michael McFaul, der ein entschiedener Verfechter der Ukraine und scharfer Kritiker Putins ist, stellt bezeichnenderweise fest, dass die Einnahme der Krim durch Russland im Jahr 2014 vor Ausbruch der Krise nicht geplant war; es war eine impulsive Reaktion auf den Putsch, der den prorussischen Führer der Ukraine stürzte. Kurz gesagt, die NATO-Erweiterung war nicht dazu gedacht, eine russische Bedrohung einzudämmen, weil der Westen nicht glaubte, dass es eine solche gab.

Erst als im Februar 2014 die Ukraine-Krise ausbrach, begannen die Vereinigten Staaten und ihre Verbündeten plötzlich, Putin als gefährlichen Führer mit imperialen Ambitionen und Russland als ernsthafte militärische Bedrohung zu beschreiben, die die NATO eindämmen müsse. Dieser abrupte Wechsel der Rhetorik sollte einem wesentlichen Zweck dienen: dem Westen die Möglichkeit zu geben, Putin für die Krise verantwortlich zu machen und den Westen von der Verantwortung freizusprechen. Es überrascht nicht, dass diese Darstellung Putins nach dem Einmarsch Russlands in die Ukraine am 24. Februar 2022 deutlich an Zugkraft gewann.

Eine Abweichung von der gängigen Meinung ist erwähnenswert. Einige argumentieren, dass die Entscheidung Moskaus, in die Ukraine einzumarschieren, wenig mit Putin selbst zu tun hat und stattdessen Teil einer expansionistischen Tradition ist, die lange vor Putin bestand und tief in der russischen Gesellschaft verwurzelt ist. Dieser Hang zur Aggression, der angeblich von inneren Kräften und nicht von Russlands äußerem Bedrohungsumfeld angetrieben wird, hat im Laufe der Zeit praktisch alle russischen Führer dazu gebracht, sich ihren Nachbarn gegenüber gewalttätig zu verhalten. Es lässt sich nicht leugnen, dass Putin in dieser Geschichte das Sagen hat oder dass er Russland in den Krieg geführt hat, aber es heißt, dass er wenig Einfluss hat. Fast jeder andere russische Führer hätte genauso gehandelt.

Es gibt zwei Probleme mit diesem Argument. Erstens ist es nicht widerlegbar, da der langjährige Charakterzug in der russischen Gesellschaft, der diesen aggressiven Impuls hervorrufe, nie identifiziert wurde. Es heißt, die Russen seien schon immer aggressiv gewesen – egal, wer an der Macht sei – und würden es auch immer sein. Es ist fast so, als ob es in ihrer DNA läge. Die gleiche Behauptung wurde einst über die Deutschen aufgestellt, die im zwanzigsten Jahrhundert oft als angeborene Aggressoren dargestellt wurden. Derartige Argumente werden in der akademischen Welt aus gutem Grund nicht ernst genommen.

Außerdem bezeichnete zwischen 1991 und 2014, als die Ukraine-Krise ausbrach, kaum jemand in den Vereinigten Staaten oder Westeuropa Russland als von Natur aus aggressiv. Außerhalb Polens und der baltischen Staaten wurde die Angst vor russischer Aggression in diesen 24 Jahren nicht häufig geäußert, was man erwarten würde, wenn die Russen zu Aggressionen veranlagt wären. Es scheint klar, dass das plötzliche Auftauchen dieser Argumentation eine bequeme Ausrede war, um Russland die Schuld für den Ukrainekrieg zu geben.  

***

Lassen Sie mich einen anderen Gang einlegen und die DREI HAUPTGRÜNDE darlegen, die dafür sprechen, dass die NATO-Erweiterung die Hauptursache für den Ukraine-Krieg war.

**ERSTENS sagten russische Führer aller Art vor Kriegsbeginn wiederholt, dass sie die NATO-Erweiterung in die Ukraine als eine existenzielle Bedrohung betrachten, die beseitigt werden muss. **

Putin hat diese Argumentation bereits vor dem 24. Februar 2022 mehrfach öffentlich dargelegt. In einer Rede vor dem Vorstand des Verteidigungsministeriums am 21. Dezember 2021 erklärte er: „Was sie in der Ukraine tun oder versuchen oder planen, findet nicht Tausende von Kilometern entfernt von unserer Landesgrenze statt. Es geschieht direkt vor unserer Haustür. Sie müssen verstehen, dass wir uns einfach nirgendwo mehr hin zurückziehen können. Glauben sie wirklich, dass wir diese Bedrohungen nicht wahrnehmen? Oder glauben sie, dass wir tatenlos zusehen werden, wie Bedrohungen für Russland entstehen?“ Zwei Monate später, auf einer Pressekonferenz am 22. Februar 2022, nur wenige Tage vor Kriegsbeginn, sagte Putin: „Wir sind kategorisch gegen einen NATO-Beitritt der Ukraine, weil dies eine Bedrohung für uns darstellt, und wir haben Argumente, die dies unterstützen. Ich habe in diesem Saal wiederholt darüber gesprochen.“ Dann machte er deutlich, dass er begreift, dass die Ukraine ein Defacto-Mitglied der NATO werde. Die Vereinigten Staaten und ihre Verbündeten, sagte er, „pumpen die derzeitigen Kiewer Machthaber weiterhin mit modernen Waffentypen voll“. Er fuhr fort, dass Moskau, wenn dies nicht gestoppt werde, „mit einem bis an die Zähne bewaffneten 'Antirussland' dastehen würde. Das ist völlig inakzeptabel.“

Auch andere führende russische Politiker - darunter der Verteidigungsminister, der Außenminister, der stellvertretende Außenminister und der russische Botschafter in Washington - betonten die zentrale Bedeutung der NATO-Erweiterung als Auslöser der Ukraine-Krise. Außenminister Sergej Lawrow brachte es auf einer Pressekonferenz am 14. Januar 2022 auf den Punkt: „Der Schlüssel zu allem ist die Garantie, dass die NATO nicht nach Osten expandieren wird.“

Man hört oft das Argument, die russischen Befürchtungen seien unbegründet, weil es keine Chance gebe, dass die Ukraine dem Bündnis in absehbarer Zukunft beitreten würde, wenn überhaupt. Tatsächlich wird behauptet, die Vereinigten Staaten und ihre europäischen Verbündeten hätten der Aufnahme der Ukraine in die NATO vor dem Krieg wenig Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt. Aber selbst wenn die Ukraine dem Bündnis beitreten würde, wäre dies keine existenzielle Bedrohung für Russland, da die NATO ein Verteidigungsbündnis ist. Daher kann die NATO-Erweiterung weder eine Ursache der ursprünglichen Krise gewesen sein, die im Februar 2014 ausbrach, noch des Krieges, der im Februar 2022 begann. 

Diese Argumentation ist falsch. Tatsächlich bestand die westliche Reaktion auf die Ereignisse von 2014 darin, die bestehende Strategie zu verdoppeln und die Ukraine noch näher an die NATO heranzuführen. Das Bündnis begann 2014 mit der Ausbildung des ukrainischen Militärs und bildete in den folgenden acht Jahren durchschnittlich 10.000 Soldaten pro Jahr aus. Im Dezember 2017 beschloss die Trump-Regierung, Kiew mit „Verteidigungswaffen“ zu versorgen. Andere NATO-Länder zogen bald nach und lieferten noch mehr Waffen an die Ukraine. Darüber hinaus begannen die ukrainische Armee, Marine und Luftwaffe, an gemeinsamen Militärübungen mit NATO-Streitkräften teilzunehmen. Die Bemühungen des Westens, das ukrainische Militär zu bewaffnen und auszubilden, erklären zu einem großen Teil, warum es im ersten Kriegsjahr so ​​gut gegen die russische Armee abschnitt. Eine Schlagzeile im Wall Street Journal vom April 2022 lautete: „Das Geheimnis des militärischen Erfolgs der Ukraine: Jahrelange NATO-Ausbildung.“ 

Abgesehen von den laufenden Bemühungen des Bündnisses, das ukrainische Militär zu einer schlagkräftigeren Kampftruppe zu machen, die an der Seite der NATO-Truppen operieren kann, gab es im Westen im Laufe des Jahres 2021 eine neue Begeisterung für die Aufnahme der Ukraine in die NATO. Gleichzeitig vollzog Präsident Zelensky, der nie viel Enthusiasmus für eine Aufnahme der Ukraine in das Bündnis gezeigt hatte und im März 2019 auf der Grundlage einer Plattform gewählt wurde, die zur Zusammenarbeit mit Russland bei der Beilegung der anhaltenden Krise aufrief, Anfang 2021 einen Kurswechsel und befürwortete nicht nur die NATO-Mitgliedschaft der Ukraine, sondern vertrat auch eine harte Linie gegenüber Moskau.

Präsident Biden, der im Januar 2021 ins Weiße Haus einzog, hatte sich seit langem für die Aufnahme der Ukraine in die NATO eingesetzt und war ein Superfalke gegenüber Russland. Es überrascht nicht, dass die NATO am 14. Juni 2021 auf ihrem jährlichen Gipfel in Brüssel ein Kommuniqué herausgab, in dem es hieß: „Wir bekräftigen den auf dem Gipfel von Bukarest 2008 gefassten Beschluss, dass die Ukraine Mitglied des Bündnisses wird.“ Am 1. September 2021 besuchte Zelensky das Weiße Haus, wo Biden klarstellte, dass die Vereinigten Staaten „fest entschlossen“ seien, „die euro-atlantischen Bestrebungen der Ukraine zu unterstützen“. Am 10. November 2021 unterzeichneten Außenminister Antony Blinken und sein ukrainischer Amtskollege Dmytro Kuleba ein wichtiges Dokument - die „Charta der strategischen Partnerschaft zwischen den USA und der Ukraine“. Das Ziel beider Parteien, so heißt es in dem Dokument, ist es, „das Engagement für die Durchführung tiefgreifender und umfassender Reformen in der Ukraine zu unterstreichen, die für eine vollständige Integration in die europäischen und euro-atlantischen Institutionen erforderlich sind.“ Es bekräftigt auch ausdrücklich das Engagement der USA für die „Bukarester Gipfelerklärung von 2008“.

Es scheint kaum Zweifel daran zu geben, dass die Ukraine auf dem besten Weg war, bis Ende 2021 Mitglied der NATO zu werden. Dennoch argumentieren einige Befürworter dieser Politik, dass sich Moskau keine Sorgen über dieses Ergebnis hätte machen müssen, denn „die NATO ist ein Verteidigungsbündnis und stellt keine Bedrohung für Russland dar“. Aber das ist nicht die Meinung Putins und anderer russischer Politiker über die NATO, und es kommt darauf an, was sie denken. Kurz gesagt, es steht außer Frage, dass Moskau den Beitritt der Ukraine zur NATO als eine existenzielle Bedrohung ansah, die nicht hingenommen werden durfte.

ZWEITENS erkannte eine beträchtliche Anzahl einflussreicher und hoch angesehener Persönlichkeiten im Westen vor dem Krieg, dass die Expansion der NATO – insbesondere in die Ukraine – von der russischen Führung als tödliche Bedrohung angesehen werden und schließlich zur Katastrophe führen würde.

William Burns, der heute die CIA leitet („heute“ leitet John Ratcliffe die CIA, aktualisieren ODER am Anfang des Textes klarstellen, dass er schon älter ist ODER „heute“ streichen und „leitete“ statt „leitet“), aber zum Zeitpunkt des NATO-Gipfels in Bukarest im April 2008 US-Botschafter in Moskau war, verfasste ein Memo an die damalige Außenministerin Condoleezza Rice, in dem er die russischen Überlegungen zur Aufnahme der Ukraine in die Allianz prägnant beschreibt. „Der Beitritt der Ukraine zur NATO“, so schrieb er, „ist für die russische Elite (nicht nur für Putin) die klarste aller roten Linien. In den mehr als zweieinhalb Jahren, in denen ich Gespräche mit den wichtigsten russischen Akteuren geführt habe, von Scharfmachern in den dunklen Nischen des Kremls bis hin zu Putins schärfsten liberalen Kritikern, habe ich noch niemanden gefunden, der die Aufnahme der Ukraine in die NATO als etwas anderes betrachtet als eine direkte Herausforderung für die russischen Interessen.“ Die NATO, so sagte er, „würde als ein strategischer Fehdehandschuh angesehen werden. Das heutige Russland wird darauf reagieren. Die russisch-ukrainischen Beziehungen würden auf Eis gelegt ... Das würde einen fruchtbaren Boden für russische Einmischungen auf der Krim und in der Ostukraine schaffen.“

Burns war 2008 nicht der einzige westliche Entscheidungsträger, der erkannte, dass die Aufnahme der Ukraine in die NATO mit Gefahren verbunden war. Auf dem Bukarester Gipfel sprachen sich sowohl die deutsche Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel als auch der französische Präsident Nicolas Sarkozy gegen eine NATO-Mitgliedschaft der Ukraine aus, weil sie wussten, dass dies Russland alarmieren und verärgern würde. Merkel erklärte kürzlich ihre Ablehnung: „Ich war mir sehr sicher, ... dass Putin das nicht einfach zulassen wird. Aus seiner Sicht wäre das eine Kriegserklärung“.

Um noch einen Schritt weiter zu gehen: Zahlreiche amerikanische Politiker und Strategen sprachen sich in den 1990er Jahren gegen die Entscheidung von Präsident Clinton aus, die NATO zu erweitern, als diese Entscheidung noch zur Debatte stand. Diesen Gegnern war von Anfang an klar, dass die russische Führung darin eine Bedrohung ihrer lebenswichtigen Interessen sehen würde und dass diese Politik letztlich in eine Katastrophe münden würde. Die Liste der Gegner umfasst prominente Persönlichkeiten des Establishments wie George Kennan, sowohl Präsident Clintons Verteidigungsminister William Perry als auch seinen Vorsitzenden des Vereinigten Generalstabs, General John Shalikashvili, Paul Nitze, Robert Gates, Robert McNamara, Richard Pipes und Jack Matlock, um nur einige zu nennen.

Die Logik von Putins Position sollte für Amerikaner, die seit langem der Monroe-Doktrin verpflichtet sind, vollkommen verständlich sein. Diese besagt, dass keine entfernte Großmacht ein Bündnis mit einem Land in der westlichen Hemisphäre eingehen und ihre militärischen Streitkräfte dort stationieren darf. Die Vereinigten Staaten würden einen solchen Schritt als existenzielle Bedrohung auffassen und alles tun, um diese Gefahr zu beseitigen. Dies geschah natürlich auch während der Kubakrise 1962, als Präsident Kennedy den Sowjets klar machte, dass ihre Atomraketen aus Kuba abgezogen werden müssten. Putin ist zutiefst von derselben Logik beeinflusst. Schließlich wollen Großmächte nicht, dass sich entfernte Großmächte in ihrem Hinterhof ansiedeln.

DRITTENS: Die zentrale Bedeutung der tiefen Angst Russlands vor einem NATO-Beitritt der Ukraine wird durch zwei Entwicklungen seit Kriegsbeginn verdeutlicht.

Während der Istanbuler Verhandlungen, die unmittelbar nach Beginn der Invasion stattfanden, machten die Russen deutlich, dass die Ukraine eine „dauerhafte Neutralität“ akzeptieren müsse und der NATO nicht beitreten könne. Die Ukrainer akzeptierten die Forderung Russlands ohne ernsthaften Widerstand, sicherlich weil sie wussten, dass es sonst unmöglich wäre, den Krieg zu beenden. In jüngerer Zeit, am 14. Juni 2024, stellte Putin zwei Forderungen, die die Ukraine erfüllen müsse, bevor er einem Waffenstillstand und der Aufnahme von Verhandlungen zur Beendigung des Krieges zustimmen würde. Eine dieser Forderungen war, dass Kiew „offiziell“ erklärt, „dass es seine Pläne, der NATO beizutreten, aufgibt“.

Das alles ist nicht überraschend, denn Russland hat die Ukraine in der NATO immer als existenzielle Bedrohung gesehen, die um jeden Preis verhindert werden muss. Diese Logik ist die treibende Kraft hinter dem Ukraine-Krieg.

Schließlich ist aus der Verhandlungsposition Russlands in Istanbul sowie aus Putins Äußerungen zur Beendigung des Krieges in seiner Ansprache vom 14. Juni 2024 klar ersichtlich, dass er nicht daran interessiert ist, die gesamte Ukraine zu erobern und sie zu einem Teil eines größeren Russlands zu machen.

---

John Joseph Mearsheimer (* 14. Dezember 1947 in Brooklyn, New York City) ist ein US-amerikanischer Politikwissenschaftler an der University of Chicago. Sein Schwerpunkt ist die Analyse internationaler Beziehungen aus der Perspektive des offensiven Neorealismus, den er erstmals 2001 in seiner Monografie The Tragedy of Great Power Politics darstellte.

---

Dieser Text von John J. Mearsheimer erschien am 5.8.2024 auf Substack.Vielen Dank für die Genehmigung des Autors zum Abdruck der deutschen Übersetzung. Die Übersetzung wurde von Thomas Mayer erstellt. 

Neben der NATO-Osterweiterung gibt es weitere Faktoren die zum Ukraine-Krieg führten, zum Beispiel der Nationalismus in der Ukraine und die Unterdrückung der ethnisch-russischen Bevölkerung.

Ausführlich sind die vielschichtigen Hintergründe des Ukraine-Krieges geschildert in dem Buch von Thomas Mayer: Wahrheitssuche im Ukraine-Krieg – Um was es wirklich geht, 600 Seiten, ISBN 978-3-89060-863-1, Infos zum Buch: https://kurzelinks.de/h10a

---

LASSEN SIE DER FRIEDENSTAUBE FLÜGEL WACHSEN!

In Kürze folgt eine Mail an alle Genossenschafter, danke für die Geduld!

Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt.

Schon jetzt können Sie uns unterstützen:

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• Für 500 CHF/EURO werden Sie Förderer und bekommen ein lebenslanges Abo sowie ein T-Shirt/Hoodie mit der Friedenstaube.
• Ab 1000 CHF werden Sie Genossenschafter der Friedenstaube mit Stimmrecht (und bekommen lebenslanges Abo, T-Shirt/Hoodie).

Für Einzahlungen in CHF (Betreff: Friedenstaube):

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IBAN DE 53710520500000814137

BYLADEM1TST

Sparkasse Traunstein-Trostberg

Betreff: Friedenstaube

Wenn Sie auf anderem Wege beitragen wollen, schreiben Sie die Friedenstaube an: friedenstaube@pareto.space

---

Sie sind noch nicht auf Nostr and wollen die volle Erfahrung machen (liken, kommentieren etc.)? Zappen können Sie den Autor auch ohne Nostr-Profil! Erstellen Sie sich einen Account auf Start. Weitere Onboarding-Leitfäden gibt es im Pareto-Wiki.

@ 77c2969e:a33cfa50

Nostr 协议在我看来是很先进的，暂时使用的人还不多，不过相比 Fediverse 的 Mastodon 之类，自己部署 Nostr Relay 是成本很小的。Blossom 作为媒体上传服务是可选的，因为有几个公共服务器可用，但是大多数国内无法直连。我还发现部分客户端不支持自定义 Blossom 服务器，只有 Amethyst 和 Nostrmo 可以。

我目前使用的是这个 nostr-relay 以及这个 blossom-server。

---

nostr-relay

这个用 Python 写的 nostr-relay 很不错。

配置文件是这个： https://code.pobblelabs.org/fossil/nostr_relay/file?name=nostr_relay/config.yaml 可以按需修改，自己用默认就够了。

```jsx

先安装 pipx

apt install pipx

再用 pipx 安装 nostr-relay

pipx install nostr-relay

选择一个目录运行以下命令启动默认配置，默认 SQLite 文件在当前目录

nostr-relay serve

后台运行

(nostr-relay serve >/var/log/nostr-relay.log &)

查看 PID

lsof -i :6969

停止运行

kill PID

后台运行命令会调用 gunicorn 运行而不是nostr-relay，因此会搜不到 nostr-relay 进程，可以尝试这个命令

ps -ef | grep gunicorn `` 反代127.0.0.1:6969` 配置域名和 SSL 证书即可。

保持简洁，不使用 Docker 和 systemd，后续迁移时只需复制整个文件夹即可。

---

blossom-server

clone 这个仓库

git clone https://github.com/hzrd149/blossom-server.git

克隆仓库是必要的，因为 blossom-server 的默认页面依赖 public/ 目录，请保留该目录。

用以下 config.yml 和 docker-compose.yml 覆盖原仓库中的文件

然后执行 docker compose up -d

反代 127.0.0.1:3000 配置域名和 SSL 证书即可。

config.yml

按需修改，比如 Dashboard 密码、允许的 PubKey 等。 ```

Override the domain thats is used in the blobs "url" field

By default it uses the domain the incoming HTTP request was made on

publicDomain: ""

databasePath: data/sqlite.db

dashboard: # enable or disable the admin dashboard enabled: true # admin username username: admin # if password is left blank it will be generated each time the app starts password: "yourpasswd"

文件发现机制，保持默认关闭

discovery: # find files by querying nostr relays nostr: enabled: false relays: - wss://relay.example.com # find files by asking upstream CDNs # NOTE: do not set this to your own server, it will create an infinite loop upstream: enabled: false domains: - https://cdn.example.com

storage: # local or s3 backend: local

# Imminently removes a blob when there are no owners removeWhenNoOwners: false

# local storage local: dir: ./data/blobs

# see minio docs for options: # https://min.io/docs/minio/linux/developers/javascript/API.html#new-minio-client-endpoint-port-usessl-accesskey-secretkey-region-transport-sessiontoken-partsize # s3: # endpoint: https://s3.endpoint.com # port: 443 # bucket: blossom # accessKey: xxxxxxxx # secretKey: xxxxxxxxx # useSSL: true # region: us-east-1 # If this is set the server will redirect clients when loading blobs # publicURL: https://s3.region.example.com/

# rules are checked in descending order. if a blob matches a rule it is kept # "type" (required) the type of the blob, "" can be used to match any type # "expiration" (required) time passed since last accessed # "pubkeys" (optional) a list of owners # any blobs not matching the rules will be removed rules: - type: "" expiration: 100 years pubkeys: - "change-to-your-pubkey-hex"

Config for the /upload endpoint

upload: # enable / disable uploads (default false) enabled: true # require auth to upload requireAuth: true # only check rules that include "pubkeys" requirePubkeyInRule: true

Config for the /media endpoint

media: # /media endpoint enabled (default false) enabled: true # require auth to upload to /media requireAuth: true # only check rules that include "pubkeys" requirePubkeyInRule: true

# image optimization options image: # image quality 0-100 (default 90) quality: 90 # create progressive jpeg / png images for large images > 1024x768 (default true) progressive: true # max width (default 1920) maxWidth: 1920 # max height (default 1080) maxHeight: 1080 # image format (default webp) outputFormat: "webp" # keep aspect radio when resizing (default true) maintainAspectRatio: true # keep EXIF metadata (default false) keepExif: false # fps for GIFs (default 30) fps: 30

video: # video quality 0-100 (default 90) quality: 90 # max height (default 1080) maxHeight: 1080 # max fps (default 30) maxFps: 30 # output format [mp4, webm, mkv] (default mp4) format: "webm" # audio codec [aac, mp3, vorbis, opus] (default aac) audioCodec: "aac" # video codec [libx264, libx265, vp8, vp9] (default libx264) videoCodec: "libx264"

list: requireAuth: false allowListOthers: true

tor: enabled: false proxy: "" ```

docker-compose.yml

services: blossom: image: ghcr.io/hzrd149/blossom-server:master ports: - 3000:3000 volumes: # mount data volume - ./data:/app/data # mount config file - ./config.yml:/app/config.yml # mount custom www dir - ./public:/app/public

---

其他

我自己目前就是部署的这两个服务自用。主要是方便部署和维护，后续服务器迁移只需要复制文件夹即可。Blossom 媒体服务自用的话，默认使用服务器本地存储即可，就是在项目文件夹中的 ./data/blobs/，上传的图片和视频会被自动压缩，占不了多少存储空间。如果公开或多人使用也可以配置 S3 兼容的对象存储。

除了我上面说的这个 nostr-relay，还有一个 Rust 写的 nostr-rs-relay，可以 Docker 一键部署，如果你偏好使用 Docker，也可以选择这个。

如果你也对 Nostr 这个去中心化协议感兴趣，想拥有自己的 Nostr 服务，不妨参考本文试试，欢迎留言交流！

---

推荐阅读

• 欢迎加入 Nostr, 这是一份快速入门指南
• Nostr!moe
• Join Nostr
• 运行自己的中继器，拥有自己的事件
• 用自己域名认证 Nostr 的 NIP-05

@ 2cde0e02:180a96b9

桜の姫

https://stacker.news/items/999877

@ eac63075:b4988b48

Ever imagined sending a Bitcoin transaction without an internet connection? Or talking to your friends during a total blackout when the cell network just vanishes? It sounds like science fiction, but this technology is an accessible reality, built with low-cost hardware and open-source software. Welcome to the world of mesh networks, Meshtastic, and the BTC Mesh project.

This guide explores the universe of decentralized communication networks, showing how they work, why they are vital for our digital sovereignty, and how you can use them to strengthen your privacy and resilience—not just in communication, but in your Bitcoin transactions as well.

https://fountain.fm/episode/nr8qWgi7XNoBbDkc8GZj

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6vKW7Lhi3uOUhlRogAtgej

What Are Mesh Networks and Why Should You Care?

Our connected world runs on a fragile, centralized infrastructure. Cell towers, internet providers, data centers—if one of these points fails, communication stops. A mesh network turns this logic on its head.

Here, each participant (or "node") connects directly to other nodes within its reach, forming a web of P2P (peer-to-peer) connections. Instead of data passing through a central server, it hops from node to node until it reaches its destination. The true strength of this approach is decentralization and resilience. If a node goes down, the others simply find a new path for the information. The network reconfigures and heals itself.

Source: meshtastic.org

LoRa and Meshtastic: The Dynamic Duo

To create these networks in the real world, the enthusiast community has rallied around a powerful duo:

• LoRa (Long Range): Think of LoRa as the physical layer—the "radio waves" of our network. It's a technology that allows for long-range wireless communication with incredibly low power consumption. We're talking about cheap little radios that can send small data packets for miles, running for days on a single battery.
• Meshtastic: If LoRa is the physical medium, Meshtastic is the brain. It's open-source software that equips these radios to form a smart, easy-to-use mesh network. Meshtastic handles everything: discovering other nodes, managing routes, encrypting messages, and providing an interface on your phone, connected via Bluetooth.

Meshtastic was originally created as an off-grid communicator, but its usefulness goes far beyond that. Here, privacy is a fundamental pillar. To join a group channel, you need the encryption key. Direct messages are end-to-end encrypted. It's like having a "hardware wallet" for your communication: your private key is secure on your radio, ensuring that only you and the recipient can read the messages.

While Meshtastic is the most popular, alternatives like MeshCore exist, which aim to optimize packet routing. However, the network effect is powerful, and the vast majority of users today are on the Meshtastic platform.

Introducing BTC Mesh: Bitcoin Transactions Via Radio

This is where Bitcoin enters the picture. The inspiration for the BTC Mesh project came from a mix of necessity and chance. After buying a LoRa radio on AliExpress that, to my frustration, couldn't transmit over long distances—and the seller simply stopped responding—I discovered it worked perfectly within my apartment. With two radios in hand, one for the base and another "defective" one, I had the perfect test environment for a new use case: sending Bitcoin transactions over the mesh network.

GitHub - eddieoz/btcmesh: BTC Mesh Relay is designed to send Bitcoin payments via LoRa Meshtastic.

BTC Mesh is a simple application that allows anyone on a Meshtastic network to send a Bitcoin transaction (on-chain, layer 1) over the radio network, without needing a direct internet connection.

How the Magic Works

The system has two parts: a client and a server.

• The Server: Someone on the network with internet access runs the "server node." This is a computer (a Raspberry Pi can handle it) connected to a LoRa radio and a full Bitcoin node (Bitcoin Core). It acts as the bridge between the off-grid mesh world and the global Bitcoin network.
• The Client: Anyone else on the network, even miles away and without internet, can use the "client" on their laptop or phone.

The process is a choreographed dance designed for the low-speed LoRa network:

1. Preparing the Transaction: In a wallet like Sparrow, you create and sign your transaction. Instead of clicking "Broadcast," you copy the "Raw Transaction"—a long hexadecimal text.
2. Sending Over the Mesh: In the terminal, you run a simple command, pointing to the server's radio and pasting your raw transaction.
3. The Communication: Since the transaction is too large for a single LoRa packet, the client splits it into chunks and starts a conversation with the server:
4. Client: "Hey server! I have a transaction in 15 parts. Can we start?"
5. Server: "Roger that! Awaiting 15 parts. Send the first one."
6. Client: (sends part 1)
7. Server: "Part 1 received. Send part 2."
8. This "handshake" continues until all parts are confirmed, ensuring the transaction arrives complete.
9. Validation and Broadcast: Upon receiving everything, the server reconstructs the transaction, validates it, and hands it off to its local Bitcoin node, which finally broadcasts it to the worldwide network.

And that's it! Your transaction is sent to the blockchain, broadcast from a radio, without your IP address ever being exposed.

Maximum Privacy and Sovereignty

BTC Mesh's power lies in its layers of privacy:

• No IP Trail: Since the transaction is sent via radio, there is no record of your IP address. To the Bitcoin network, the transaction simply originated from the server node.
• End-to-End Encryption: The communication between the radios is encrypted by Meshtastic. No one in between can see the content of your transaction.
• Extra Layer with Tor: For maximum privacy, the server node can connect to the internet through the Tor network. This way, not even the server's IP is exposed in the final broadcast.

This combination creates a powerful system for censorship-resistant Bitcoin transactions with high privacy.

Building Your Kit: The Hardware

Excited to build your own station? The hardware is cheap and accessible.

• Frequency is Key: First, know the legal LoRa frequency in your country. In Brazil, use 915 MHz. In Europe, 868 MHz. Buying the wrong frequency will render your radio useless.
• Popular Brands:
• Heltec: Very popular, with boards like the T114, V3, and the Wireless Bridge, which comes with a practical design and an e-ink screen.
• RAK Wireless: Considered more "professional." The RAK4631 model (which I use for my base) is excellent, and the WisBlock line is modular, requiring no soldering.
• LilyGo: Famous in the "maker" community. Offers boards like the T-Beam (with GPS), T-Echo (small and practical), and the T-Deck (a full communicator with a keyboard).
• Seeed Studio (SenseCAP): Offers robust devices like the T1000-e (waterproof) and the XIAO ESP32S3 (tiny, perfect for compact projects).
• Antennas: Don't underestimate the antenna! And a crucial warning: never, ever, turn on your radio without an antenna connected, or you could burn out the transmitter.
• 3 dBi: A more "rounded" signal (a sphere), great for short distances with vertical obstacles.
• 10 dBi: A "flatter," more directional signal (a frisbee), for long distances with a clear line of sight.
• Power: Many boards have connectors for batteries and small solar panels, allowing you to create autonomous nodes.

Limitations and Considerations

Despite its power, LoRa technology has its limits:

• Low Bandwidth: The network is slow. Think 140-character Twitter. It's perfect for messages, but forget about web browsing.
• Regulation: Many regions limit the amount of data a radio can transmit per hour ("duty cycle"). Meshtastic respects these limits, which reinforces the need for optimized applications.
• Need for a Bridge: For a transaction to reach the global network, one node on the mesh needs internet. The network can be fully off-grid for internal communication, but the bridge to the outside world is necessary for certain applications. MQTT servers can play this role, connecting distant mesh networks over the internet.

Use Cases: Beyond Bitcoin

• Disaster Communication: Projects like Disaster.Radio focus on using LoRa to coordinate rescue teams during catastrophes.
• Outdoor Activities: Essential for hiking and camping in remote locations.
• Internet of Things (IoT): In agriculture, sensors can cover vast areas. On farms, they can monitor livestock.
• Private Communication: In a world of surveillance, having a communication channel that you control is an act of sovereignty.

The Future is Decentralized

Projects like BTC Mesh offer a glimpse into a more resilient, private, and decentralized future. They give us the tools to build our own communication and financial networks, free from centralized control.

The technology is cheap, the software is free, and the community is vibrant. Building your first node might seem intimidating, but it's a rewarding project and a practical step toward personal sovereignty.

So, are you ready to get off the grid?

@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

18-07 HOLIDAY HOME by OFFICE INAINN reimagines the traditional hytte, creating two interconnected cabins, H_G30 and H_G32, located near the scenic Geiranger–Trollstigen route. Set on a steep hillside 148 meters above sea level, the design embraces modern functionality while offering stunning southern views of Storfjorden and minimizing environmental impact.

Blending into the Landscape

The cabins are designed to integrate gently into the natural terrain, following the contours of the hillside. Their horizontal layout reduces the visual impact, blending into the forested surroundings while opening up to the fjord. The minimal footprint respects the environment and reduces construction costs, ensuring the cabins remain nearly invisible from the north while fully engaging with the southern panorama.

Functional, Additive Architecture

Inspired by traditional Norwegian architecture, each cabin consists of two overlapping modules of varying heights, breaking up the building mass and reducing roof size. The higher module serves as the circulation space, while the lower module contains the private and living areas. This approach replaces conventional walls with functional form, creating distinct zones for movement, utility, and relaxation.

Harmonizing Tradition with Modern Living

The cabins follow an east-west retaining wall that mirrors the hill’s natural slope, with additional storage and leisure spaces tucked behind. The shallow depth allows maximum southern exposure for light and views, while the central axis blurs the boundary between indoor and outdoor living, creating a seamless connection to nature.

For more info https://inainn.eu/18-07-holiday-home/

https://stacker.news/items/1000386

@ 7460b7fd:4fc4e74b

比特币正在主动引诱量子计算“破解自己”

引言：危机还是契机？

比特币和量子计算，这两个看似对立的存在，正在酝酿一场耐人寻味的博弈。许多人担心未来强大的量子计算机将秒破比特币的密码学基石，从而令区块链安全灰飞烟灭。然而，本文想传达的核心观点却截然相反：比特币不仅不会被量子破解打败，反而正在通过协议层的巧妙设计来“引诱”量子计算进入自己的游戏规则之中。通过诸如BIP-360等提案，比特币有望将量子计算的威胁转化为动力，开启一个“后挖矿时代”的全新正反馈经济体系，让“破解”本身成为新的挖矿机制。

这样的观点听起来近乎狂想，但背后有着深厚的技术逻辑支撑。我们将从基本的密码学原理谈起，逐步剖析量子计算的能力与局限，以及比特币协议在抗量子方向做出的结构性准备。最后，我们探讨一种大胆的经济模型：当量子计算被诱导去参与“破解竞赛”时，或许正是比特币凤凰涅槃、新经济形态崛起之机。

非对称加密的数学本质：“上帝视角”的陷门答案

非对称加密（如RSA、椭圆曲线加密ECC等）的核心在于存在一种单向函数：正向计算容易，反向推导极难。公钥可以视作某个难题的题目，私钥则相当于“上帝视角”提前知道的答案。一旦掌握私钥，就能轻松完成从答案到题目的逆推；而只有公钥时，想要逆推出私钥则被设计为在现实中不可行。这类单向难题通常通过陷门函数来实现——对合法持有者（私钥）来说，存在隐藏的捷径（陷门）可以快速解题；而对局外人来说，题目看似无解。

举例来说，比特币当前采用的ECC加密：私钥与公钥的关系就像“一次难以逆推的乘法”。给定私钥x，乘以基点G可轻易得到公钥点P = x·G，但已知P却无法高效求出x。这种不对称确保了签名者可以用私钥生成签名，而验证者只能用公钥验证签名而无法伪造。私钥掌握了解题的“上帝答案”，公钥则只能用于验证答案是否正确。

这一点在新型的抗量子算法中同样体现。以格密码（lattice cryptography）为例：Falcon等基于NTRU格的签名算法，其公钥可以被视为一个高维长基，私钥是对应的短基。pqshield.com在二维格子上的示意说明了这种不对称性：拥有短基（私钥）时，我们可以高效地找到距离某个目标点很近的格点解；但只有长基（公钥）时，我们顶多能验证某个给定解是否有效，却很难自行找到足够优质的解pqshield.com。换言之，私钥提供了一个陷门，允许持有者快速逆推答案，而公钥持有者只能望“题”兴叹。

图：在二维格子中，签名者持有的短基（私钥）可以高效求解出距离目标点（黑色方块）极近的格点解（绿色圆点）。绿色平行四边形表示短基下求解空间很小，因而容易找到最优解。这直观展示了陷门函数的威力：私钥掌握短基就如同拿到了解题捷径。

图：仅持有长基（公钥）时，使用相同算法得到的格点解（红色圆点）可能距离目标（黑色方块）很远。红色平行四边形代表在无陷门情况下求解范围巨大，找到最佳解极其困难。但验证者仍可用长基检查出某个解（如绿色点）确实是有效解pqshield.com。这体现了公私钥在计算能力上的不对称：私钥可求解，公钥仅可验证。

总而言之，非对称加密的安全性源自数学难题的单向性质和陷门结构。私钥就是那个隐藏的逆向通道，“上帝视角”的答案；公钥则是不具备捷径的信息，只够验证而无法逆推。从RSA的整数分解、ECC的离散对数，到Falcon的近似最近矢量问题，每一种公钥体制都是在构造“题目易出答案难逆”的格局，让持有陷门者轻松，旁观破解者绝望。

量子计算的原理与极限：并行穷举的神话与现实

量子计算机令人畏惧之处，在于其并行计算能力。通过量子叠加态，n个量子比特（qubit）可同时表示2^n种状态——仿佛能把指数级的可能性同时考虑。配合量子干涉与算法设计，量子计算机能够以远胜传统计算机的效率解决某些特定问题。其中最著名的就是Shor算法，它能在多项式时间内完成对大整数的质因数分解和离散对数求解。这正是传统公钥加密（RSA、ECC）的命门：一旦有足够强大的量子计算机，基于这些数学问题的公钥体制将不再困难，私钥可以由公钥“解密”而出coindesk.com。

然而，“并行穷举”的神话背后有严格的物理和工程学限制。首先是量子比特数量和质量的限制：当前的量子芯片规模远未达到破解现代加密所需的级别。据风险研究机构与专家调查，目前我们只有几十到几百个物理qubit，而要威胁256位ECC或2048位RSA，需要数百万高质量qubitdeloitte.com。不仅数量上相差几个数量级，现有量子芯片的纠错和降噪技术也远不成熟。量子比特极其敏感，微小噪声都会引入错误，真正实用的量子计算机需要对成千上万的物理比特进行纠错编码，形成稳定的逻辑比特。这个工程挑战之巨大，使得可攻破密码的量子计算机仍是多年之后的前景——多数专家预测大概还需十几年时间才可能出现实质威胁deloitte.com。

其次，量子计算并非万能破解，仅对特定问题有指数级加速。Shor算法擅长因数分解和离散对数，Grover算法可以对无结构的穷举搜索加速（将时间复杂度平方根降低）。但许多新兴的抗量子算法依赖的问题（如格上的最短向量问题SVP、最近向量问题CVP，或多变量方程、哈希预像等）目前并无高效量子算法。这些问题大多属于NP难类，甚至找近似解也极为困难emerginginvestigators.org。尽管量子计算提供并行试探能力，但对这类高度复杂的问题也爱莫能助。正如一项研究指出：SVP和CVP问题即便在量子计算机上依然“极端困难”，在可预见的将来仍足以保证安全性emerginginvestigators.org。Falcon所使用的NTRU格就是这样的难题代表——没有已知算法可以像Shor之于RSA那样，高效攻破NTRU问题。

最后，我们还需注意量子攻击的实际条件。量子破解比特币主要有两种情景：存储攻击和传输攻击deloitte.com。存储攻击指利用量子计算找出已公开公钥对应的私钥，从而盗取静态存放于链上某地址的币；传输攻击则是当交易广播（公钥暴露）后，在被矿工打包上链前的短暂窗口内，量子计算抢先推导私钥并盗转。这两种攻击对量子能力要求不同：存储攻击允许耗时几周甚至数月破解一个密钥，只要在币移动前完成即可；而传输攻击要求在区块确认之前（比特币约10分钟内，以太坊更短）秒破私钥deloitte.com。显然，目前和可预见的中期内，量子计算都远达不到传输攻击所需的即时破解水平；即便存储攻击，由于比特币区块链的UTXO模型（稍后详述），真正高价值、长时间暴露公钥的币也相对有限deloitte.com。因此，量子威胁虽然现实存在，但并非一夜之间让比特币崩溃的魔法。这反倒给予我们部署抗量子方案、引导量子力量“为我所用”的时间窗口。

抗量子密码学的三大结构前提

要让比特币真正抵御量子威胁，并把量子计算纳入自身生态，需要满足几个结构性前提。经过多年社区讨论和研究，以下三点被认为是比特币走向抗量子的关键设计要素：

1. UTXO模型：隐藏公钥缩短攻击窗口 – 比特币采用UTXO模型，每次交易都会生成新地址，公钥通常以哈希形式隐藏在地址中，直到你花费时才公布。这意味着量子计算只有在你发起交易后的很短时间内（交易确认前）才能获得公钥并尝试破解，大大压缩了攻击窗口anduro.iodeloitte.com。相较之下，账户模型（如以太坊）重复使用固定地址，公钥一旦被提取或首次使用后就长久暴露，使得65%以上的以太币当前都处于量子暴露风险中，而比特币约只有25%处于类似风险deloitte.com。UTXO模型通过“一次性地址”和“不用则公钥不出”的原则，天然提供了对抗量子存储攻击的第一道屏障。

2. “见证隔离”（SegWit）：模块化升级签名算法 – 抗量子方案的发展日新月异，比特币必须保持签名算法的可插拔升级能力。2017年的见证隔离升级正是为此奠定基础：SegWit将签名等见证数据与交易本体分离，并引入版本化的见证脚本格式。这使得添加新签名类型成为可能——通过软分叉引入新的输出类型和见证版本，就能兼容地支持不同算法delvingbitcoin.org。正如BIP-341利用SegWit扩展出了Taproot的Schnorr签名，比特币也可以扩展出抗量子签名的新地址类型而无需硬分叉或显著增加区块体积delvingbitcoin.org。这一模块化特性对于迎接未来各类抗量子算法至关重要，没有SegWit的铺垫，抗量子改造将困难重重。

3. 分级安全机制：根据价值和时效选择算法强度 – 由于UTXO的性质，每笔交易在花费时都会暴露其公钥。因此，安全策略不能“一刀切”，应允许根据币值大小或持有时长采用不同强度的抗量子算法。高价值的UTXO、长期未移动的“老币”，应使用更高安全级别但可能更重型的签名方案；反之，小额频繁交易可用较轻量的方案以兼顾效率和区块容量。好比Falcon提供了512和1024两种参数版本：Falcon-1024安全级别更高但签名稍大，而Falcon-512签名更小速度更快，适合资源受限场景emerginginvestigators.org。未来比特币或可同时支持多种抗量子算法或参数，用户按需选用，让“安全性”成为一种可以权衡和市场定价的链上资源。每一次支付都在安全与成本之间找到平衡，这将促使一个分层的安全市场形成——进一步论述见后文经济模型部分。

上述三大前提缺一不可：UTXO模型提供了基础的_安全缓冲_，SegWit机制给予_升级弹性_，分级算法让_经济可行性_落地。在这方面，比特币的体系结构远优于某些后来的公链。例如，以太坊的账户模型天生缺乏隐藏公钥的机制，地址就是固定的公钥哈希，一旦使用过私钥签名就永久暴露公钥，同时其交易脚本（EVM）对签名算法固定死，没有灵活插拔空间。这意味着以太坊想转向抗量子算法，必须经过极其痛苦的整体迁移或硬分叉——开发者需要为每个账户引入新密钥，新老算法并行过渡，智能合约地址、签名验证逻辑全部推倒重来。这种难度令人生畏，以至于有人嘲讽以太坊“几乎不可能”实现真正的抗量子迁移。反观比特币，得益于其简单而弹性的UTXO+Script设计，只需通过新的输出类型软分叉，就可以逐步引入抗量子地址，让用户自愿迁移过渡，避免一次性硬分叉的系统性风险。

BIP-360：可选抗量子签名，引入量子博弈

面对量子威胁，比特币开发社区并未坐以待毙。2024年，由开发者Hunter Beast提出的BIP-360提案（又称P2QRH，意为“支付到抗量子哈希”）正式将抗量子签名引入了议事日程anduro.io。BIP-360核心思路是在比特币中增加新的地址类型，这些地址采用后量子密码学的签名算法（当前优先考虑Falcon，并备选CRYSTALS-Dilithium和SPHINCS+等）来取代易受量子攻击的ECDSA/Schnorr签名anduro.iogroups.google.com。换句话说，用户可以自愿选择生成一种“抗量子地址”，对应的UTXO需使用抗量子算法签名才能解锁。

为什么说BIP-360让比特币“引诱”量子计算加入博弈？这里有几层含义：

首先，BIP-360采用软分叉方式部署，可选而非强制。这意味着在量子计算真正成熟之前，绝大多数交易仍可继续使用原有签名算法，不平添负担；而有安全偏好的用户或机构可以提前迁移一部分资金到抗量子地址以高枕无忧。随着量子技术进展，逐步会有更多人选择这个选项，形成一个与量子威胁赛跑的过程。这种自愿迁移机制本身就是一种对量子黑客的诱导：网络主动暴露出一个“堡垒更坚固”的区域，鼓励守法用户往那里走，同时意味着留下的旧区域反而成为显眼的攻击目标和“诱饵”。

其次，BIP-360在算法选择和参数上充分考虑了区块链经济的承受力。起初提案曾讨论过一些前沿算法如SQIsign，但发现其验证开销高达ECDSA的15,000倍，若全网采用将使验证一块新区块从1秒暴涨到4小时，带来难以接受的性能瓶颈groups.google.com。最终的方案优选Falcon等NIST标准算法，它们签名体积较小、验证高效，可与当前区块大小和验证速度相容groups.google.com。例如Falcon-1024的签名约1.3KB、公钥1.7KB左右，这虽然比当前64字节的Schnorr签名大得多，但并非无法承受。通过配置灵活的安全级别（如重要交易才用Falcon-1024，一般小额用Falcon-512或普通Schnorr），比特币区块空间将被合理分配在安全性和费用之间。BIP-360精心设计了新的地址格式和见证结构，确保即便引入抗量子签名，区块验证和存储开销也在经济范围内，不会动摇挖矿和节点运行的成本平衡anduro.io。

最后也是最具前瞻性的一点，BIP-360为量子计算参与链上博弈打开了一扇门。通过提供抗量子和非抗量子地址并存的环境，比特币网络其实设置了一个对量子计算的挑战擂台：量子计算可以选择去攻击那些仍使用旧签名算法且价值巨大的UTXO，但同一时间，网络里的用户也在不断提升关键UTXO的签名强度来应对。量子计算不再是一个纯粹的外部敌人，而被巧妙地“请”进了系统，在规则内与用户和矿工互动。这为下一节将讨论的新经济模型奠定了基础——破解即挖矿的雏形由此孕育。

值得一提的是，BIP-360还提出了一个Taproot的量子安全补丁方案P2TRH，用哈希隐藏Taproot的公钥以弥补其“公钥长曝”缺陷groups.google.comgroups.google.com。因为现有的Taproot地址（见证v1）是直接以公钥生成地址，失去了UTXO模型隐藏公钥的优势，量子攻击者可以随时尝试破解Taproot资金。P2TRH通过将Taproot公钥再哈希一层，恢复“见证前隐藏公钥”的特性，代价是每笔此类输入增加8.25字节开销groups.google.com。这显示出比特币开发者未雨绸缪，连新升级的Taproot漏洞也在想办法弥补，使全局达到抗量子的结构性统一。

综上，BIP-360及相关提案不仅提供了技术方案，更释放出一种积极的信号：比特币正主动拥抱量子挑战，将其纳入规则之内。正如Anduro团队支持BIP-360时所言：“量子攻击的威胁严肃而迫近，我们不能坐等紧急关头才手忙脚乱。”anduro.ioanduro.io比特币社区选择了在危机到来前主动布局，以最小的代价换取最大的安全冗余和发展新契机。

“破解竞赛”经济模型：当量子成为新矿工

设想未来5-15年内，量子计算技术逐步成熟。在比特币网络中，可能会上演这样一幕令人惊叹的图景：量子计算矿工和抗量子验证者同时在线，围绕着尚未升级的老式UTXO展开一场你追我赶的“破解竞赛”。这将引发怎样的经济动力？我们大胆描绘一个后PoW时代的可能场景：

一方面，强大的量子计算机不再浪费算力去挖掘哈希谜题（传统PoW），而是直接瞄准那些“量子易攻”的UTXO，即尚使用老式ECDSA/Schnorr签名且公钥已暴露的地址。这些地址里的币对合法持有人来说如果迟迟未迁移到抗量子地址，实际上就变成了躺在链上的“悬赏”：谁能先算出私钥，谁就能转走这些币。在量子计算参与者眼中，这些币和早期比特币矿工眼中的区块奖励无异，都是凭借算力可竞争获取的收益。值得注意的是，根据分析，目前约有25%的比特币（按币量）处于公钥已暴露状态deloitte.com。随着时间推移，这个比例可能上升——除非持有人主动升级安全。这就像网络故意留出了一片“牧场”，让量子计算在其中竞相捕猎，以获得收益。量子攻击者之间形成竞争：更快的量子芯片、更好的算法意味着可以更早破解特定私钥，拿下那笔币。这几乎就是PoW的变体——过去矿工拼SHA-256算力抢区块奖励，未来量子矿工拼质因数分解/离散对数能力抢遗留UTXO。

另一方面，守护这片“牧场”的则是抗量子验证者和普通用户自身的防范行为。所谓抗量子验证者，可能是运行完整后量子节点或提供安全服务的专业机构。他们一方面帮助用户升级UTXO（例如提供一键迁移服务，把旧地址币转移到新PQ地址上，收取服务费），另一方面监测全网可疑交易。当量子攻击者尝试盗取某UTXO时，如果该UTXO持有者事先购买了“安全服务”，验证者可以抢先代为花费将币转移到更安全的地址（类似白帽黑客行为），或者提供更高级别签名升级以挫败攻击。总之，抗量子能力本身也成为一种商品，在市场上明码标价。你想让自己的币绝对安全？可以付费请量子安全服务团队定期轮换密钥、使用最高强度签名、监控链上异常。你的交易想确保不中途被截胡？可以支付更高矿工费甚至指定量子保险节点护送。在链上，一个根据签名难度和安全级别定价的市场逐渐形成：越高难度的签名（比如超长位的Falcon变种、多重签名方案结合等）需要支付越高的费用来存储和验证；反过来，这些费用补贴给保障网络安全的矿工/节点，激励他们投入更多资源提升抗量子能力。这种正反馈循环下，“安全”本身成为了新的经济激励。

如此一来，比特币生态迎来了“后挖矿时代”的转型：当区块补贴逐渐趋零，原本空缺的矿工激励由量子破解竞赛和安全服务市场所填补。量子计算加入竞争并非摧毁网络，反而扮演起类似矿工的角色，通过攻破薄弱环节来获得收益；而诚实的参与者则通过不断升级安全措施和支付安全费用来保护资产。这看似矛盾，却形成了动态平衡：正如生物进化中的“红后效应”，猎豹越快，羚羊也进化得更快，两者共同提升了系统的活力。

当然，这一模型中也充满戏剧性和讽刺意味——尤其当我们把眼光投向其他缺乏这种机制的公链。以太坊等账户制链若在量子时代陷入危机，很可能只能选择停机硬分叉、或者由中心化机构出面更换用户密钥，几乎无自动博弈的空间可言。而比特币网络则通过精妙的协议调整，把外部威胁内化为内部博弈，让市场机制去调节和应对。这种弹性与活力，正是比特币经久不衰的原因。

结语：危机催生新生，量子力量为我所用

当年互联网面对计算机病毒肆虐时，人们最终没有被动防守，而是发展出杀毒产业、安全协议，将病毒的威胁转化为推动网络更加健壮的动力。同样道理，比特币面对量子计算的冲击，并非只能筑高墙固步自封，而是选择了更具前瞻性的道路：拥抱威胁、化敌为友。通过提前布局抗量子基础设施（UTXO模型、SegWit扩展、PQ签名算法）、逐步推行BIP-360等方案，比特币正悄然改变游戏规则。在这个新规则中，量量对决、攻守博弈将上演全新篇章，网络安全不再是一成不变的盾牌，而是一套动态进化的生态系统。

或许若干年后回望，我们会发现量子计算并没有摧毁比特币，反而成就了比特币历史上的一次重大飞跃——开启了一个后工作量证明时代的新纪元。在这个纪元里，“破解就是新挖矿”不再只是戏谑之语，而成为链上真实上演的经济现象；“出售安全”也从附属服务变成每个节点和用户的日常考量。比特币将继续履行其角色：作为一个去中心化的、自我强化的金融体系，它有能力将任何挑战转化为自身进化的燃料。

正如BIP-360提案作者所言，这是一个“when 而非 if”的议题anduro.io。量子计算终将到来，而比特币已在主动邀请它参与一场精心设计的游戏。当量子计算机真的站上擂台，比特币早已不再是那个任人宰割的靶子，而更像是一位早已摆好阵势的棋手，静候对手入局。在这盘大棋中，没有永远的猎物，只有不断进化的猎人。比特币，会是那个始终笑到最后的“猎人”吗？让我们拭目以待。

参考文献：

• 【18】PQShield博客：《Falcon – A Post-Quantum Signature Scheme》 – 阐释格密码中长基（公钥）与短基（私钥）的不对称性pqshield.com。

• 【28】Deloitte报告：《Quantum risk to the Ethereum blockchain》 – 比较了比特币UTXO模型与以太坊账户模型在量子攻击下的差异，指出以太坊65%资产易受量子威胁，而比特币约25%deloitte.comdeloitte.com。

• 【23】Bitcoin开发者论坛：《Proposing a P2QRH BIP towards a quantum resistant soft fork》 – 描述了通过SegWit扩展新签名算法的思路，无需硬分叉且不增加区块大小delvingbitcoin.org。

• 【22】Emerging Investigators论文：《A meta-analysis on NIST post-quantum cryptographic primitive finalists》 – 说明Falcon-512与Falcon-1024在安全性和性能上的差异，并强调SVP/CVP等问题对量子计算依然极为困难emerginginvestigators.orgemerginginvestigators.org。

• 【36】Anduro博客：《Bitcoin Needs Quantum Resistant Addresses – We Support BIP360》 – 介绍了BIP-360提案内容，引入抗量子地址类型P2QRH，采用Falcon和Dilithium签名，软分叉兼容anduro.io。同时强调量子威胁需提早应对的紧迫性anduro.ioanduro.io。

• 【32】Bitcoin开发邮件列表：《P2QRH/BIP-360 Update》 – 提供了BIP-360提案的最新动态，算法选型从SQIsign转向Falcon、Dilithium、SPHINCS+，原因是前者验证开销过大（15,000倍）而不切实际groups.google.comgroups.google.com。

• 【30】CoinDesk报道：《Quantum Computing Could Break Bitcoin-Like Encryption Far Easier…》 – 提及比特币所用ECC也可被Shor算法破解，只要有足够强大的量子计算机coindesk.com。

• 【33】Deloitte报告：《Quantum risk to the Ethereum blockchain》 – 阐述当前量子计算的物理局限：需要上百万qubit且降低噪声量级，目前技术远不能攻击密码算法deloitte.com。

• 【38】Bitcoin开发邮件列表：《P2QRH/BIP-360 Update》 – 描述了针对Taproot的P2TRH抗量子方案，用哈希隐藏公钥以减小长时间暴露，并分析其开销和局限groups.google.comgroups.google.com。

@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

HTX Studio received a special email. The letter writer's daughter was unfortunately run over by a heavy truck on her way to school, and her right hand permanently lost its function. When using the computer, her hands have to frequently switch between the keyboard and the mouse, which makes typing very slow and tiring. He wanted us to make a one-handed keyboard for his daughter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vW12gQ4Klc

The project has just been open-sourced at https://github.com/htx-studio/One-Handed-Keyboard and hopes to be helpful to those who need it. In English for you below:

One-Handed Keyboard

This is a single-mode mechanical keyboard with integrated trackball. The firmware uses QMK . Thanks to all the developers who have contributed to the QMK community.

Keyboard production reference: [Mr. He] We made a special keyboard...

Open source hardware: HTXStudio one-handed keyboard

GitHub repository

Gitee repository

The development environment and setup are available here , and the firmware source code is available here .

The information in this warehouse includes:

• A total of 8 PCBs for three keyboards for the left and right hands, provided by EasyEDA Engineering.
• VIA key change configuration file and compiled firmware.
• Model design files.

---

Warehouse directory structure

Docs

Data sheet and pictures of the chip.

Firmware

QMK firmware for three different keyboard models, and JSON files for VIA key changes.

Hardware

Project files of Jialichuang EDA.

Model

Model files and processing files used by each keyboard model.

---

Production Guide

PCB：

1-Right-hand keyboard-hot-swappable (large): board material FR-4, board thickness 1.6mm, four-layer board, laminate structure JLC04161H-3313, impedance control +/-20%.

1-Left-hand keyboard-welding board (small): board material FR-4, board thickness 1.6mm, double-layer board, ALPS yellow axis needs to be installed with a little force when inserted.

1-Left-hand keyboard-hot-swappable (large): board material FR-4, board thickness 1.6mm, four-layer board, laminate structure JLC04161H-3313, impedance control +/-20%.

2-TypeC: board material FR-4, board thickness 1.6mm, double-layer board, marked CON1 (only for large keyboards).

3-Trackball: board material FR-4, board thickness 1.6mm, double-layer board, the module needs to pay attention to the welding direction, marked CON3.

4- Mouse wheel: board material FR-4, board thickness 1.6mm, double-layer board, it is recommended to use 7mm high encoder, 6mm high button, button trigger pressure ≤180g, marked CON2.

5-Directional buttons: board material FR-4, board thickness 1.6mm, double-layer board, ALPS yellow shaft needs to be inserted with a little force, marked CON4.

6- Main control board - left hand (small): board material FR-4, board thickness 1.6mm, double-layer board.

• Three of them are keyboard-controlled common boards 《3-轨迹球》《4-鼠标滚轮》《5-方向按键》.
• 《5-方向按键》And 《1-左手键盘-焊板(小)》, the key axis uses ALPS yellow axis.
• Note that the left and right hand keyboards are not completely mirrored.
• The trackball control uses SPI1 channel, and the scroll wheel has two separate signal lines, which allows replacing other control devices without major adjustments.
• The main control uses STM32G431CBU6.
• Compatible with A to C or C to C data cables.

Printout:

Keycap: resin, PLA, etc.

Trackball seat: resin, PLA, etc.

Left and right mouse buttons: resin, PLA, etc.

Shell: resin, PLA, etc.

Base: resin, PLA, etc.

Processing:

Positioning plate: Recommended material: pom, thickness 1.5mm.

Positioning plate cotton strip: glue left on one side.

Sandwich cotton: Recommended material is poron, 3.5mm thick.

Axle seat cotton: 2mm thick.

Bottom cotton: Recommended material: poron, 4mm thick.

Silicone pad (for keypad only): 5mm thick, hardness Shore 00-10.

other:

Trackball: diameter 25mm, material PTFE.

Lubricating ball: 2mm diameter, made of PTFE, installed in the printed trackball seat, 6 pieces in number.

Roller: Recommended diameter is between 19mm-20mm, thickness is between 4mm-5mm, and material is metal.

Satellite axis: 2U steel plate satellite axis.

Key switches: 57 ultra-small ALPS yellow switches for the small keyboard and 57 common mechanical switches for the large keyboard.

Cable arrangement: spacing 0.5mm, 8P reverse, 10cm2 strips, 15cm2 strips.

• The FPC sockets of the control board and the small board are both marked with CON, and the corresponding interfaces are connected.
• The file uses an FPC cable holder that can be connected up and down. It should be noted that when the cable holders are connected down, use reverse cable connection.

Model structure:

Installation order:

Take the large keyboard as an example

Pre-assembly work

• First, connect the 4 small PCBs to the keyboard body PCB using cables and burn the program.
• Install 3-5 shafts, rollers and trackballs. Make sure they function normally before assembly.
• Install the correct hot-melt copper nuts at the corresponding positions of the printed shell and base.
• Keycap printing.
• Attach the cotton strips to the protruding parts of the positioning plate (both on the front and back sides).

When burning the firmware for the first time, you can press and hold the button marked "B" on the back of the PCB and then plug in the USB cable to burn the firmware.

If you want to update the firmware, you can press and hold the "ESC" key on the keyboard and then insert the USB cable to burn the firmware.

For more information, please refer to Flashing Your Keyboard (QMK)

Next, start assembling

1. Use screws to install the 4 small boards to the corresponding positions of the base (pay attention to the wiring and installation direction), and install screws at the bottom of the trackball base.
2. Fix the left and right buttons on the keyboard PCB with screws.
3. From bottom to top, place the bottom cotton, shaft seat cotton, keyboard PCB, sandwich cotton and positioning plate into the fan-shaped area of ​​the base in order.
4. Insert the key switch.
5. Put it into the housing and secure it with screws from the bottom.
6. Install the keycaps to complete the assembly.

The screw and nut installation guide can be found here

Finally, this is our first open source project. If there are any shortcomings, you are welcome to criticize and correct us. Thank you.

---

References

Quantum Mechanical Keyboard Firmware

mrjohnk. ADNS-9800. GitHub repository

https://x.com/HTX_Studio/status/1929915992349782206

https://stacker.news/items/1000384

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

I'll do more specific deep dives into the interesting teams, but let's start with the big picture. Which teams are buyers and sellers this offseason and who will be the biggest moving pieces?

Sellers

These are the teams that I expect to be bailing on their valuable assets: - Celtics: Even before Tatum's horrible injury, there was Last Dance talk around this old expensive roster. I think they'll use this year to get the roster more aligned with Tatum's timeline. That likely means moving on from Horford, Holliday, and Porzingis for salary savings and promising young players. - Bucks: With Dame injured and the roster being both old and not very good, they'll be putting Giannis on the auction block, as well as anyone else with trade value. They aren't tanking, though, unless they can get their picks back. - Phoenix: They desperately need to turn KD into assets that will be valuable in the future. The situation may even be bleak enough that they look to move on from Booker. - Memphis: A badly injured superstar and a roster that probably isn't good enough anyway, means it's time to sell the parts that don't quite fit and look to get back on track after next season.

Buyers

These are the teams looking to add high-end talent: - Houston: They had a great season, but lack a true number one player. Fortunately for them, they have a ton of draft picks and promising young players. - San Antonio: They also have a ton of assets and are ready to build a competitor around Wemby and Fox.

Both

These teams are pretty good, but they probably need to make pretty big roster tweaks: - Cavs: The two-big lineup looked too big against the Pacers. They probably need to move either Garland or Allen for another good player that fits the roster needs better. - Minnesota: Randle looked good for most of the playoffs, but Randle and Gobert aren't the right frontcourt for Ant. - Lakers: I'm not sure who they should part with, but they need a center.

Run it back

These teams don't need to do more than small tweaks around the edges, either because they're close already, they're developing a young promising roster, or there's just not much they can do: - Detroit - New York - Indiana - OKC - Golden State

???

I don't know what they need to do, but they need to do something: - Clippers: Kawhi and Harden went as far as they're gonna go, but I doubt anyone wants to give up assets for either of them. - Philly: Hahahahaha! - Orlando: Great defense, miserable offense. Something's gotta give - Dallas: Are they trying to win now or build around Flagg? - New Orleans: They have way too much talent to be as bad as they've been. - Denver: They looked great against OKC, but it seems like they need more around Jokic. Is MPJ worth anything as a trade asset, though?

Who cares? They suck

Everyone else

Let me know what you're looking at this offseason.

https://stacker.news/items/999795

@ 57d1a264:69f1fee1

There is a certain image that pops up whenever people think about crushing soda cans. It is the kind of scene you see in movies, where a brawny athlete flattens an empty can with a single squeeze, probably in front of a cheering crowd. The reality, however, is far less cinematic. Most of us barely manage a dent before abandoning the can, sending it tumbling toward the trash bin, often missing the target entirely and hoping no one noticed. It is hardly the stuff of legends, unless you consider fumbling for a runaway soda can an athletic event.

In the end, the Yeti Can Crusher is more than just a clever gadget. It is a reminder that even the simplest chores can be transformed into moments of enjoyment, especially when the right tool is involved. There is a certain thrill in turning a dull task into a satisfying ritual, and when you add a dash of style, suddenly recycling is not just good for the planet, it is actually a little bit fun. With the right crusher in your hand, you might just find yourself looking forward to the next empty can.

Curious to learn more? https://www.yeti.com/outdoor-living/20110010027.html

https://stacker.news/items/1000380

@ 3eab247c:1d80aeed

Global Metrics

Here are the top stats from the last period:

• Total Bitcoin-accepting merchants: 15,306 → 16,284
• Recently verified (1y): 7,540 → 7,803 (the rest of our dataset is slowly rotting; help us before it's too late!)
• Avg. days since last verification: 398 → 405 (more mappers, please)
• Merchants boosted: 22 (for a total of 4,325 days, someone is feeling generous)
• Comments posted: 34

Find current stats over at the 👉 BTC Map Dashboard.

Merchant Adoption

Steak n’ Shake

The US 🇺🇸 is a massive country, yet its BTC Map footprint has been lagging relative to other countries ... that is until now!

In what came as a nice surprise to our Shadowy Supertaggers 🫠, the Steak ’n Shake chain began accepting Bitcoin payments across hundreds of its locations nationwide (with some international locations too).

According to CoinDesk, the rollout has been smooth, with users reporting seamless transactions powered by Speed.

This marks a significant step towards broader Bitcoin adoption in the US. Now to drop the capital gains tax on cheesburgers!

SPAR Switzerland

In other chain/franchise adoption news, the first SPAR supermarket in Switzerland 🇨🇭 to begin accepting Bitcoin was this one in Zug. It was quickly followed by this one in Rossrüti and this one in Kreuzlingen, in what is believed to be part of a wider roll-out plan within the country powered by DFX's Open CryptoPay.

That said, we believe the OG SPAR crown goes to SPAR City in Arnhem Bitcoin City!

New Features

Merchant Comments in the Web App

Web App users are now on par with Android users in that they can both see and make comments on merchants.

This is powered by our tweaked API that enables anyone to make a comment as long as they pass the satswall fee of 500 sats. This helps keep spam manageable and ensure quality comments.

And just in case you were wondering what the number count was on the merchant pins - yep, they're comments!

Here is an 👉 Example merchant page with comments.

Merchant Page Design Tweaks

To support the now trio of actions (Verify, Boost & Comment) on the merchant page, we've re-jigged the design a little to make things a little clearer.

What do you think?

Technical

Codebase Refactoring

Thanks to Hannes’s contributions, we’ve made progress in cleaning-up the Web App's codebase and completing long overdue maintenance. Whilst often thankless tasks, these caretaking activities help immensely with long-term maintainability enabling us to confidently build new features.

Auth System Upgrades

The old auth system was held together with duct tape and prayers, and we’re working on a more robust authentication system to support future public API access. Updates include:

• Password hashing
• Bearer token support
• Improved security practices

More enhancements are in progress and we'll update you in the next blog post.

Better API Documentation

Instead of relying on tribal knowledge, we're finally getting around to writing actual docs (with the help/hindrance of LLMs). The "move fast, break everything" era is over; now we move slightly slower and break slightly less. Progress!

Database Improvements

We use SQLite, which works well but it requires careful handling in async Rust environments. So now we're untangling this mess to avoid accidental blocking queries (and the ensuing dumpster fires).

Backup System Enhancements

BTC Map data comes in three layers of fragility:

• Merchants (backed up by OS - the big boys handle this)
• Non-OSM stuff (areas, users, etc. - currently stored on a napkin)
• External systems (Lightning node, submission tickets - pray to Satoshi)

We're now forcing two core members to backup everything, because redundancy is good.

Credits

Thanks to everyone who directly contributed to the project this period:

• Comino
• descubrebitcoin
• Hannes
• Igor Bubelov
• Nathan Day
• Rockedf
• Saunter
• SiriusBig
• vv01f

Support Us

There are many ways in which you can support us:

• Become a Shadowy Supertagger and help maintain your local area or pitch-in with the never-ending global effort.

• Consider a zapping this note or make a donation to the to the project here.

@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

Here’s the thing: authenticity gives off a vibration: There is so little of it anywhere that we crave it. That’s why an orange guy beats someone who doesn’t mean what they say. Because they don’t really believe a guy in a dress is a woman because that’s what they say they are

People feel vibes and hearing someone lie to their face is offensive. They will follow the guy that at least believes what he is

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

This is the place to reflect on how well you met your ~HealthAndFitness goals today.

Where did you succeed? What do you need to keep working on?

I probably didn't get enough sleep and overcompensated with caffeine. Otherwise, today was pretty solid. Other than a big cookie, I ate well and kept it within a decent window. Activity level was good, not great.

I meant to stretch more today, which I didn't really do, but I suppose I can do now.

https://stacker.news/items/999453

@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

D.D. Palmer was a magnetic healer, a visionary who tapped into the unseen forces of life. He founded chiropractic on the premise that the body’s innate intelligence governs health, and that misalignments—whether called subluxations, blockages, or interferences—disrupt this flow.

This is not a medical concept; it’s a metaphysical one, rooted in the belief that life transcends mere mechanics.

As a profession, we’ve been too concerned with what others think of us, particularly the medical community. In our desperation for acceptance, we’ve diluted our essence.

Some chiropractors advocate abandoning the term “subluxation” because it sounds archaic or unscientific. Personally, I don’t care for the word either—it often leaves my clients’ eyes glazed over. I prefer “blockages” or “interference” to convey the concept in a way that resonates.

But replacing these with medical jargon? That’s a betrayal of our roots.

What we cannot do is conform to a biomedical model that reduces the body to a machine. Chiropractic is not about treating symptoms or mimicking physical therapy. It’s about restoring the body’s connection to its innate wisdom, allowing healing to unfold naturally.

This is our strength, our uniqueness. To abandon it is to board the Titanic just before it sails—a sinking ship of soulless reductionism.

I believe chiropractic needs to embrace its metaphysical heritage boldly. We must stop apologizing for being different and instead educate the public on what we truly offer: a holistic approach that honors the body’s intelligence.

This means refining our language to be clear and relatable without sacrificing our principles. It means training chiropractors to communicate with confidence, not defensiveness. It means building a community that celebrates our philosophy rather than chasing validation from skeptics.

The future of chiropractic lies in authenticity. Let’s stop trying to fit into someone else’s paradigm. We are not medicine’s younger sibling; we are a distinct voice in healthcare. By standing firm in our metaphysical roots, we can inspire a world desperate for holistic solutions. The choice is ours: evolve as a vibrant, principled profession or sink under the weight of conformity. I choose evolution.

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

https://youtu.be/YA1Lkl3h9AQ

"...and then, like so many Pacers games, things just happened."

I think that's about as well as any of us understand what's going on.

https://stacker.news/items/999389

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

I’ve written before about the distinction between a platform, like Gmail or X, and a protocol, like SMTP or nostr. The former is typically owned and centrally controlled, the latter permissionless and open to everyone. For example, Google can ban you from using its email client, but no one can prevent you from using email itself because no one owns the email protocol.

Language is also a protocol, in fact every language including English. Anyone, even your worst enemy who knows it can make himself understood by those who understand it. Dictionaries and grammar guides exist, but over time even they bend to common usage and are forced to include new words and rules over time because no one owns or unilaterally controls the language.

Nonetheless that doesn’t prevent people from trying. If large companies ban you from using their communications platforms like Facebook, X and Gmail, it can severely constrict your reach. Banks can’t prevent you from using physical dollars, but they can cancel your credit cards and close your accounts, if for example you’ve decided to support Canadian truckers protesting their government, making it difficult for you to transact in a society largely run on their digital rails.

Over the last few years we even saw brazen attempts to turn language into a protocol via preferred pronouns, political correctness and a government-funded “disinformation” industry. The idea was that you had to “log in” with your correct view and accurate information credential before you could participate in a discussion about a wide array of sensitive topics. If you questioned the safety and efficacy of vaccines, the fairness of the 2020 election or the origins of the Covid virus you often found yourself denied reach on various platforms and labeled “anti-vax,” “anti-science,” an “election denier” or a “conspiracy theorist.”

These labels served to circumvent substantive discussion by denying basic standing such that there was no path to a hearing on the merits. If you did not signal your bona fides via adherence to certain preferred edicts, your perspective was often summarily dismissed, not only by individuals, but also institutions at the behest of which the modern public square is administered.

In short, centralized platforms, responding to government pressure, attempted to turn self-expression and in some cases even language itself into platform. As it turns out, that attempt was a violation of the law, at least in the United States, where we have a First Amendment:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

That the First Amendment was violated over the last five years (and is still being violated now, though more with respect to what you can say about Israel and the conflict raging therein) is not surprising. The Constitution is merely a piece of paper and as such wholly dependent on succeeding generations’ willingness to stand up for it. Governments are always, by their nature, top down and fascistic insofar as they use force to achieve their desired ends, and it would be naive to think a piece of paper should stop them from doing so given a sufficiently compliant populace.

Put differently, the consecrated ideas in the piece of paper must be perpetuated to retain their binding effect. And rational arguments as to their supremacy over the expedience of the day (“people are dying, it’s a once in a century pandemic!”) often fall on propagandized ears. A list of sacrosanct principles is no failsafe for mass formation psychosis, and sophisticated and powerful factions have learned to foment manias as needed to overwhelm the average person’s dedication to them.

But just as gunpowder to some extent democratized the use of force 600 years ago, the spread of new technologies has the potential to enforce the First Amendment in perpetuity in a way the Framers with their pen and paper could not. In fact, we can re-write the First Amendment for the modern digital age in simplified form:

Religion and speech are ever protocols, never platforms.

In essence, no centralized entity can control, capture or censor them. But instead of simply stating this as a matter of principle, we can now, via Bitcoin and nostr, instantiate it into a decentralized ecosystem with the use of distributed nodes and unbreakable encryption. All the king’s horses and all the king’s men would more have as much chance of re-assembling Humpty Dumpty, contra the laws of entropy, as cracking your private keys. Inducing manias in the general public and using it as a lever on centralized gatekeepers works only at the platform level, but necessarily fails versus a distributed protocol.

The solution then in the face of an indifferent and obedient population to restoring the principles on which freedom and the prospect of human prosperity depend is to develop and use unstoppable, uncensorable technology, i.e., digital protocols, to circumvent the walled-garden platforms run by centralized tech behemoths. Yes, advocating for the principles in the founding documents is good and useful, but building and using tools that instantiate them is also necessary.

If enough people transact peer to peer in bitcoin rather than over the closed-circuit rails of the global banking system, and enough people share information over nostr, rather than via the centralized tech platforms, laws and actions that violate free speech would be as effective as ones outlawing gravity or laws of thermodynamics.

The next revolution won’t be with the guillotine or the pitchfork, but bottom-up person to person, permissionless interaction and transaction. You can still be excommunicated from the platforms by their commissars and state apparatchiks, but their edicts no longer run merely afoul of a consecrated piece of paper — they come up against an infrastructure over which they no longer have enforceable jurisdiction.

@ 7460b7fd:4fc4e74b

加密货币的现象学主权：制造“主权合法性的地平线”

1. 合法性地平线的概念界定

“合法性地平线”概念源于现象学的意向性结构与福柯的治理技术相结合，用以描述主权合法性如何被“看见”与“经验”。胡塞尔的现象学认为，每一种意识经验都带有一个“地平线”，即对象在主体意识中的出现总是伴随背景期待和可能性范围plato.stanford.edu。“地平线”代表了对象被给予时隐含的上下文——例如看到一张桌子时，我们预期换个角度仍看到桌子的不同侧面plato.stanford.edu。类似地，“主权合法性的地平线”指的是人们对某种权力或治理结构之合法性的背景期待：什么使它被感知为正当？这种正当性在经验中如何显现？

福柯的权力-知识视角进一步丰富了这一概念。他指出现代权力不仅通过法律和强制，而且通过生产知识、 discourse和治理术来发挥作用，使个体自觉内化某种规范en.wikipedia.org。福柯的“治理性”（governmentality）指一套组织实践、心态和技术，用以塑造被治理者的行为，从而使社会可被治理en.wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org。这意味着权力通过塑造认知与行为来制造“真理”，进而让自身的正当性看起来自然而然en.wikipedia.org。因此，当我们讨论Crypto系统的主权合法性时，必须考察其如何通过技术和符号手段塑造用户对合法性的直观感受。

在Crypto领域，代码即法律（“code is law”）的理念体现了这种通过技术制造合法性感知的努力：区块链系统将权力关系直接编码进协议，以数学“真理”取代引入暴力的主权命令medium.com。通过共识算法、智能合约和链上治理，Crypto系统创造了一种可经验的秩序感：网络规则透明公开、对所有参与者一视同仁地适用，因而让人感到这套秩序“自洽”且有正当性。这种经验结构就是“合法性地平线”——用户在与Crypto系统互动时，感知到一种内在的规则正当性背景。例如，去中心化网络的界面设计、视觉符号（币标、NFT艺术等）、参与仪式（节点投票、提案讨论）都成为现象学意义上的“提示”，引导参与者将该系统视为某种主权实体的化身，其合法性在体验中被建构和感受。

简言之，合法性地平线指的是Crypto系统通过代码规则与治理技术，营造出一种主权正当性的感知视域，使得参与者“看到”并“感觉到”该系统的权力是合理的、可信的。这一概念融合了胡塞尔的意向性地平线（对象在经验中的意义背景）plato.stanford.edu和福柯的治理技术（权力通过知识和技术使自身合法化）en.wikipedia.org。在这个视域中，主权合法性不再仅仅是一套法律文本或国家权威的声明，而是被嵌入在Crypto网络的日常体验和符号实践中，成为参与者主观生活世界的一部分。

2. 不同Crypto系统的主权合法性建构之比较

各类加密货币系统在构建主权合法性的路径上存在显著差异。这些差异体现于叙事策略、政治参与形式以及它们对待国家既有权力结构的姿态。下面将比较比特币、以太坊、“矿币”（如门罗币Monero、比特币现金BCH）、meme币（如DOGE狗狗币）与“国家代理币”（如波场TRON、币安币BNB）如何各自制造和投射其合法性地平线：

• 比特币（Bitcoin）：比特币通过“去中心化的货币”叙事建立其合法性视域。作为第一个区块链币种，它宣称无需任何中央权威即可运作，bitcoin.org其P2P网络由所有节点集体维护交易和发行规则bitcoin.org。这种无中心的特性及公开透明的设计（开源代码、总量恒定等）构成了比特币合法性地平线的核心：用户在使用比特币时体验到的是一种“不依赖国家背书而自洽”的金融秩序。从政治参与看，比特币的治理相当克制——共识规则变化需要全网多数接受，但普通用户主要通过运行节点、舆论参与来影响决策。比特币对国家权威的姿态是疏离甚至对抗的：它诞生于对央行和法币的不信任，其“自我主权”理念强调个人掌控资产、抵御通胀和审查bitcoin.org。因此，比特币的合法性来源于一种技术乌托邦叙事：因为有密码学和算力保障的“真实”共识，它试图成为无需暴力强制也能令人信服的主权货币替代品。

• 以太坊（Ethereum）：以太坊以“世界计算机”和去中心化应用平台的叙事建立合法性。其焦点在于提供一个信任中立的基础设施，让任何人可在其上部署智能合约和自治组织。以太坊的合法性地平线体现在社区共治和持续进化上：开发者和持币者通过Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIP)等机制参与协议升级，体现出某种“公民参与”式的治理。相较比特币的保守，以太坊更强调通过技术治理（例如近期的权益证明合并）来提升网络，从而使参与者体验到一种“宪政”氛围——规则可以被有序改进但需达成广泛共识。以太坊对国家的姿态较为务实中立：一方面核心开发者强调去信任和抗审查，另一方面也出现与企业、政府合作的探索（例如企业以太联盟EEA）。总的来说，以太坊试图通过自身的治理结构赢得合法性认同，即“代码之治”也能产生稳定可信的规则秩序，让用户相信以太坊作为基础设施是正当且持久的。

• “矿币”类（门罗币Monero、比特币现金BCH 等）：这些由PoW挖矿支撑的独立链试图通过差异化理念建立合法性。_门罗币（XMR）_的核心叙事是“金融隐私即人权”。它以强匿名技术（环签名、隐匿地址）确保交易无法追踪，从而保护用户免受监控。这种隐私至上的设计塑造出一种道义合法性：拥护者视门罗为对抗强权窥视的“地下主权货币”，满足了对__“不受政府控制的私密数字现金”的需求coinstats.app。许多用户将门罗视为一种金融自由运动，认为其价值不仅在技术，更在于实践了个人隐私和去国家化的理想coinstats.app。这种合法性地平线带有浓厚的他者伦理色彩：门罗以他者（用户个人）的绝对隐私权利为出发点来挑战国家的透明化权力。*比特币现金（BCH）*则以“点对点电子现金”的愿景自我合法化。由于不满比特币在扩容问题上的治理，BCH社区通过硬分叉另立门户，主张更大的区块以实现高吞吐量交易，从而真正落实日常支付之用。BCH的合法性叙事建立在对中本聪原旨的捍卫和对“小区块高费用”比特币路线的反抗上：支持者声称BCH才继承了比特币作为普惠数字现金**的正统。在政治参与方面，BCH社区更激进直接，以分叉手段投票，以技术手段执行“人民意志”。对国家权威，BCH与BTC类似，倾向于忽视或平行存在，通过先构建民间采用（一些发展中国家商户接受BCH支付等）来潜移默化获取合法性认同，而非寻求政府背书。

• Meme币（以DOGE为代表）：狗狗币以戏谑和社区文化打造出独特的合法性视域。其诞生本是一场对严肃金融的调侃：柴犬形象和戏谑语调淡化了传统权力符号。但正是这种去权威化的平易近人风格，使DOGE形成了强大的草根认同感。狗狗币的叙事不是宏大叙事，而是“互联网亚文化的胜利”——它暗含一种对正规金融和精英主义的反抗，但方式是幽默和慈善（例如社区募资赞助体育队、奥运选手等事件）。DOGE缺乏严格的链上治理，其开发也长期停滞，但这反而强化了一种“自发秩序”的体验：社区共识主要通过社交媒体和名人带动形成，而非正式投票。Elon Musk等人的参与更赋予其某种“民意代理”的色彩——仿佛大众情绪经由名人之口成为DOGE价值的背书。对于国家等宏大他者，狗狗币采取的是玩笑般的态度：既不直接抗衡也无意合规寻求承认，而是通过病毒式传播让自己成为社群现象。它的合法性地平线建立在“人气即公理”的感受上：参与DOGE的人因为欢乐、互助和社区精神而相信它的价值——这是一种全新的主权幻象，好似**“人民的笑声”**本身成了权威。在严肃制度看来这也许缺乏传统合法性，但在参与者体验中，DOGE营造出一个轻松却凝聚的共同体，这本身构成了对主权合法性的另类想象。

• “国家代理币”（TRON波场、Binance Coin币安币）：这类由企业或创始人强力主导的Crypto系统，其合法性建构路径与上述去中心化理想截然不同。它们更像是在模仿和代理国家主权，通过与现有权力结构的合作与对接来赢得合法性认同。*波场（TRON）*由孙宇晨主导，采取高度市场化和中心化的运营方式，同时积极寻求监管和政府的正面互动。波场网络上的稳定币（如USDT）发行量巨大，是除以太坊外最大的稳定币结算链之一（截至2024年Tron链上流通的USDT价值接近600亿美元，仅次于以太坊上的750亿coindesk.com）。这种庞大的稳定币流通使波场实质上成为国际美元稳定币清算网络的一部分，仿佛承担了“影子央行”功能。此外，波场积极配合监管：2024年成立“T3打击金融犯罪部门”，联合区块链分析公司和稳定币发行方，已在全球范围内冻结了1亿美元涉嫌非法的USDT资产coindesk.com。通过这一链上冻结和执法机制，波场表现出类国家警务的功能，向用户和政府传达出“我们维护法治”的信号。波场团队甚至直接介入国家政治：创始人孙宇晨曾出任格林纳达驻WTO大使（2021-2023），并成功推动多米尼克国将TRON系列加密货币（包括TRX, BTT, JST等）作为法定货币授权流通，用于公共缴费和税收commonwealthchamber.com。这一系列举措构筑了波场的合法性地平线：通过与小国政府合作、模拟国家职能（发行法币、执法冻结）以及高调与各国政要互动，波场试图让公众相信：尽管它不是“真正的”主权国家，但它是缺位主权的代理者，一个值得信赖的准国家金融体系。

*币安币（BNB）*则依托全球最大加密交易所币安的影响力来建构合法性。BNB链由币安主导，其治理采用验证者联盟模式，实际控制力集中。这种结构下，币安选择通过拥抱监管和强调合规性来让BNB生态显得“安全可靠”。例如，币安推动发行的稳定币BUSD曾是完全持牌的合规稳定币，由纽约金融服务署批准发行binance.com（直至2023年监管介入暂停增发）。BNB链也展现出准主权的治理能力：虽然标榜去中心化，但在2022年一次恶性攻击后，币安团队协调验证者冻结了黑客地址，随后通过链上治理决定如何处置被盗资产cointelegraph.com。事实证明币安有能力在必要时单方面暂停网络、冻结资金，这类似于国家在紧急状态下冻结账户或央行干预金融市场的权力。此外，币安在各国积极寻求合法牌照，建立合规部门，雇佣前政府官员作为顾问，体现了对主权法规的尊重和对接。这一切塑造出BNB的合法性视域：用户在其中感受到的是一个由企业主导但受法律框架认可的体系——币安扮演着某种超国家的经济体角色，试图将加密世界与传统国家体系桥接。因此，在BNB的地平线上，主权合法性表现为一种混合体：既强调自身作为独立生态系统的技术权威，又通过拥抱监管来暗示其行为获得现实合法性的许可。

3. TRON与BNB的主权合法性地平线建构机制

着重分析波场(TRON)和币安链(BNB)这两个“国家代理币”案例，可以更清晰地看到Crypto系统如何通过具体机制制造合法性认知的地平线，将“主权缺位”转化为“主权代理”。

首先，稳定币结算网络是两者的重要抓手。波场凭借极低手续费和高吞吐性能，承载了巨额的USDT稳定币交易coindesk.com。这意味着大量用户（尤其在亚非等新兴市场）通过波场网络完成美元价值的跨境转移。客观上，波场在充当部分国际清算体系的功能。这一点被波场团队策略性地用于合法性建构：他们高调宣布TRON成为多米尼克的“国家区块链”，不仅在法律上获准其代币为法币commonwealthchamber.com，还协助该国发行了多米尼克币(DMC)等基于波场的国家代币。这种深度绑定国家的行为，使波场在用户心中产生一种“准官方”的印象——仿佛波场网络是有主权意志背书的。相比之下，币安的BNB链在稳定币方面则通过BUSD的合规性树立公信力：BUSD在美国持牌发行binance.com时，币安广泛宣传其“安全、有监管保障”的属性。这向大众传递的信息是：BNB生态内的价值尺度（稳定币）是受到传统金融法规保护的，从而增加对其使用的信任。这种“法币锚定”的经验缩小了Crypto系统与法定主权体系的心理距离，让用户觉得BNB网络内的资产更“像正规钱”。

其次，链上冻结机制与监管代理凸显了这两大系统主动承担“执法”功能，以换取合法性认同。波场的T3部门联合第三方在全球范围冻结非法资金coindesk.com，表明波场并非一个无法无天的“暗网”，而是愿意扮演金融警察角色。这一机制在体验层面制造出清晰信号：波场网络上的犯罪行为会被惩戒，资产可以按规矩被冻结返还，网络秩序得到维护——这些过去只有主权国家才能做到的事，如今一个链上组织也做到了。对于政府而言，这无疑提升了对波场的信任，因为它显示出配合监管的姿态。BNB链在应对黑客攻击时展现的冻结账户和回滚交易能力cointelegraph.com则进一步强化了这一点。虽然此举在加密社区中引发去中心化受损的争议，但从合法性认知角度看，却让普通用户感到一种熟悉的安全感——正如银行被盗时央行和警方会介入，BNB链遭黑客时币安团队亦有权力干预救济。这种可经验的治理结构（例如用户听闻某黑客被冻结资产、某诈骗犯在波场上资金被冻结）直接让用户将波场和BNB视作“负责任的治理者”。福柯意义上，这是加密网络运用现代治理技术赢得权力合法性的体现：通过主动监管自身生态，塑造良好秩序的知识和话语，让自身权威显得必要且正当en.wikipedia.org。

再者，政治人物互动与象征资本也是TRON与BNB制造合法性地平线的重要策略。孙宇晨以其公共身份为波场攒足了象征资本：他以国家大使身份出席国际组织，在推特上自称“H.E.”（His Excellency）彰显外交头衔，将个人品牌与主权象征绑定。这种行为虽然饱受争议，但在现象学层面为波场用户提供了一个感知框架：波场的领导者被视为主流政治圈的一员，从而仿佛赋予波场网络以某种“准国家”的光环。同样地，币安创始人赵长鹏（CZ）频繁出现在各国监管机构会议、国际论坛和媒体访谈中，努力将自己塑造成负责任的行业领袖形象。币安还聘请前政府高官为顾问，在多个国家建立合规团队。这一系列举措在用户经验中累积出一种印象：BNB和币安并非游离于法律之外的野蛮生长，而是积极融入主流规则之中。用户在参与BNB链生态时，会感到一种“安心”——仿佛背后有成熟企业和甚至某种政府级别的信誉作支撑。这其实正对应于列维纳斯所强调的伦理关系：他者（政府、社会）对于一个主体的合法性至关重要。Crypto系统通过与他者（政治权威）的互动，赢得了来自他者的承认，从而在伦理意义上缓解了“无主权背书”带来的焦虑。在列维纳斯看来，他者性的承认带来伦理上的正当medium.com。波场和BNB通过争取他者的承认，部分地填补了纯技术自我封闭体系的伦理赤字——用户不再只是面对冰冷代码，也看到这些系统在现实他者（政府、名人）那里获得了回应和责任承担。

总体而言，TRON与BNB走的是一条“以他者成就自我”的主权建构之路：它们没有国家那样的传统合法性来源，便通过模仿国家职能（发行法币、监管执法）和寻求国家认同（法律地位、外交合作）来主动制造一个合法性知觉的“地平线”。在这个地平线上，用户仿佛站在一个新型主权的领域边界：向内看，是自成一体、规则透明的区块链秩序；向外看，又与既有主权世界接轨，被赋予熟悉的合法性象征。主权的空位因此被这些Crypto系统以代理人身份占据，并在经验中呈现出一种强烈的主权氛围。

4. 去国家化还是再国家化？——主权合法性的变迁

通过上述分析，我们看到主权合法性正在从传统国家转移到“可经验的治理结构”和“自洽的合法性感知”上来。在某些Crypto系统中，合法性不再仰赖国家授予，而是源于网络自身运行所生成的认同感和秩序感。这种转变本身带有辩证的两面：一方面，去中心化技术削弱了地理国家对合法性的垄断；但另一方面，这些技术社群往往重新制造出一种更强烈的主权意象，仿佛回归了主权逻辑的另一种形式（即“再国家化”）。

从福柯的观点看，这体现了一种权力编碼方式的更替。国家的主权在本质上是一套权力关系的编碼，靠暴力和法律被维系medium.com。“合法性”传统上来自于**“统治的习俗化”：人民接受国家是因为历史、法律和强制使其看似当然。然而Crypto开创了另一个路径：它通过“真理化”权力关系来赢得合法性。诚如福柯所言，现代国家以“权威而非真理”铸成法律；而区块链则尝试以“真理（共识不可篡改）”来让秩序合法medium.com。medium.com有学者借鉴福柯的生权力概念指出，加密系统通过把权力关系字面地编入代码，创造了一种全新的社会、经济乃至政治力量medium.com。这种力量一方面作为对抗国家装置的反权力出现，另一方面又提供了新型的治理方案和法律形式medium.com。换言之，在Crypto中“代码之治”取代了“暴力之治”，共识机制取代枪炮成为背后支撑规则的力量medium.com。它以数学和协议的不可违背性打造出一种“不可侵犯的真理体系”**来承载法律，从而宣称自己具有正当性medium.com。这种正当性被参与者以切身经验感知到：每一笔交易的确定性、每一次投票的公开透明，都在累积对系统公正性的信任。当足够多的人认同“链上的结果即合法”，那么代码本身就获得了权威。

然而，这是否意味着国家主权失去了角色？事实上，我们在TRON、BNB案例中看到，相当多Crypto系统依然寻求模拟乃至重塑主权。可以说，Crypto并非单纯地消解主权，而是在重写主权。许多区块链网络内部形成的治理结构，本质上是某种微观政治共同体，它们需要获得“合法性资本”以维系内部秩序vitalik.eth.limo。维塔利克·布特林强调，合法性是一种关键的稀缺资源，是区块链运作的基石vitalik.eth.limo。当社区认定某种共识改变是合法的，它就会被接受；反之则可能分叉或叛离vitalik.eth.limo。这表明即使没有国家，社群本身会生成新的合法性来源。这种合法性或许来自道德感召（如门罗的隐私伦理），或来自技术信念（如比特币的算法公正），或来自领袖魅力和政治交易（如TRON/BNB）。无论来源如何，其共同点是：经由参与者的体验和共识，这些Crypto系统内部涌现出一种共同承认的权威。

可以将其理解为**“自洽的合法性感知”：Crypto系统通过一套自足的规则和象征，使参与者产生对其正当性的直觉认知。这种正当性未必需要外在支持，正如列维纳斯所言，“他者的面容”赋予我们伦理上的责任和正当约束；在去中心化网络中，“他者”即社区共识本身**。每个节点、每个用户既是他者也是自身主权的一部分：当他们彼此认可网络规则的正当性时，就构成了一种内在伦理契约。比特币社区不需要某国政府认可其发行的币合法，但社区内部对21百万上限、对工作量证明的认同本身就是合法性的来源。同理，以太坊社区在DAO事件后选择回滚分叉，是基于成员对“恢复社会正义”的共识来定义何为合法结果，而非听命于外部权威vitalik.eth.limo。

因此，我们正见证某种主权概念的奇异转变：主权合法性从地理国家转移到分布式网络，从肉身暴力转移到算法规则，从他律转移到某种新形式的自律（但这种自律又是一群人的共同他律）。这可以被视为一种去国家化的主权（de-nationalized sovereignty）。它在表面上削弱了民族国家的统治，但在实践中，加密网络内部往往塑造出更强烈的“主权”氛围：有旗帜（符号和Logo）、有宪章（白皮书和协议）、有公民（持币人）、有政府（开发团队/节点联盟）和法院（共识投票机制）。甚至，Crypto主权者还创造出了自己的暴力替代物：矿工的算力竞争、验证者的斥资押注，都扮演着捍卫秩序的功能——虽然不以流血形式出现，却也要求付出资源和冒险来维护规则。

值得注意的是，这种新型主权氛围也潜藏风险：列维纳斯提醒我们，真正的伦理在于对他者的无条件责任。如果一种新的“主权”缺乏对真正他者（如社会上最弱者、圈外人）的关切，而只顾自身体系的自洽，那么它可能蜕变为封闭的“总体性”，失去伦理高度。换言之，自洽的合法性必须警惕变成一种自我循环的独断。如果Crypto系统只是在复制国家主权的仪式而缺乏对他者的敏感，那么它带来的可能不是真正超越国家的政治解放，反而可能是技术掩饰下的旧权力延续。

5. 结语：新的政治现象的生成？

通过对加密货币“制造主权合法性的地平线”的探讨，我们进入了一个复杂而耐人寻味的哲学反思：我们是否正在见证一种全新的政治现象生成？Crypto所引发的，究竟是对“统治”、“合法性”与“国家”这些根本范畴的改写，还是对其模拟与延展？

一方面，区块链技术的出现无疑挑战了传统政治哲学。昔日主权离不开疆域与暴力，如今无形的代码与共识竟能使数亿资金流转、有社区誓死捍卫其决策。权力不再完全垄断于政府机构；合法性不再完全依赖霍布斯式的臣民契约或韦伯式的科层理性，而在很大程度上取决于技术架构能否令参与者信服。如果说政治现象的生成需要公共领域中主体间的互动，那么Crypto提供了一个前所未有的新场域：匿名的个体通过算法秩序关联在一起，形成了某种准政治共同体。从现象学角度看，我们的经验世界里第一次出现了**“数字此在”**（digital Dasein）彼此互动生成秩序的景象——没有警察和军队，但有哈希和共识；没有政府颁布法律，但有协议自动执行；没有法袍加身的法官，但有遍布全球的节点见证和仲裁。这究竟是对政治的扬弃，还是另一种形式的政治？或许我们正站在理解政治的新地平线上。

另一方面，我们也需清醒地看到，新事物背后潜藏旧问题。Crypto的很多实践是在重新定义合法性来源，但仍然绕不开人类社会固有的权力张力。链上治理也好、社区共识也罢，无法免俗地出现寡头影响、话语控制、少数服从多数等经典政治难题。甚至，一些Crypto系统以去中心之名行中心集权之实，只不过权力披上了技术的外衣。因而，我们应当辩证地看待Crypto的“再主权化”倾向：它可能预示着政治形态从民族国家向网络共同体的演变，但未必根本消除了不公和压迫。正如福柯分析的，那些看似超越国家的新权力网络，也许只是在以更微妙的方式治理我们en.wikipedia.org。

对于哲学而言，Crypto提供了一个试金石。它迫使我们重新审视“统治”究竟意味着什么：当没有了可见的统治者，规则本身成为统治，我们还如何定义服从与自由？它也促使我们反思“合法性”的本质：究竟是源自暴力威慑、传统习俗，抑或如卢梭所愿是公共意志？在区块链上，公共意志表现为共识算法下的“多数同意”，但这与理想的人民主权是否相符，仍有待商榷。最后，“国家”的概念或将被重构：也许未来的“国家”不再局限于地理和民族，而可能是一群共享某种链上身份和价值观的人所组成的数字邦联。“网络主权”或者“算法城邦”不再是科幻小说的描绘，而是现实政治经济中的活跃力量。

我们正在迈入一个灰色地带：传统政治哲学的范畴在此与数字现实交织，出现模糊和变形。Crypto既非纯粹技术现象，也非单一经济事物，而更像是一次跨领域的实验，带有人类对秩序与自由的双重渴望。或许再过若干年，我们回看今日，会发现Crypto确实开启了一场关于主权合法性的深刻变革；也或许，我们会发现它只是在旧逻辑中循环。但无论如何，当下这一幕——代码、伦理、权力交织下的合法性地平线之生成——值得我们以最审慎又开放的心态去观察、去理论化。这不仅关乎Crypto本身的命运，更关系到21世纪人类如何重新定义自身共同生活的基本准则。我们也许正在书写“统治-合法性-国家”三位一体的新篇章，其走向仍未定型，而思想的追问与参与将是塑造这一走向的重要力量。

参考文献：

• Husserl, Edmund. Ideas Pertaining to a Pure Phenomenology and to a Phenomenological Philosophy (1913). 引自Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy对胡塞尔“意向地平线”的论述plato.stanford.edu。

• Foucault, Michel. Security, Territory, Population (1977-78讲座). 福柯“治理性”概念参考en.wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org。

• Erik Cason, “Crypto, Truth and Power. Understanding crypto through Foucault’s…,” Medium, 2020. 将福柯权力观应用于Crypto的分析medium.commedium.com。

• Erik Cason, ibid – 引用其中对列维纳斯他者概念的借用medium.com，以及对国家权力与真理关系的讨论medium.com。

• Bitcoin.org官方介绍页面，阐述比特币去中心化无中央权威特性bitcoin.org。

• “Monero (XMR) Flips Toncoin…” – CoinStats新闻，引用其中对门罗币隐私和去国家化理念的描述coinstats.app。

• CoinDesk新闻《Tron’s T3 Financial Crime Fighting Unit Hits $100M in Frozen USDT》, 2025, 报道波场联合执法冻结资金coindesk.comcoindesk.com。

• Commonwealth of Dominica官方公告，2022, 宣布TRON系列币种获得该国法定货币地位commonwealthchamber.com。

• Cointelegraph新闻《Binance’s indecision to freeze BNB wallets...》，2023, 揭示BNB链验证者可协作冻结地址的事实cointelegraph.com。

• Binance官方博客《Binance widens access to BUSD stablecoin》，2022, 提及BUSD受纽约监管批准发行binance.com。

• Vitalik Buterin, “The Most Important Scarce Resource is Legitimacy,” 2021, 讨论区块链治理中合法性的关键作用vitalik.eth.limo。

@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

Have you seen the show Poker Face on Peacock streaming? Natasha Lyonne plays a casino worker character who has the ability to tell if someone is telling the truth. If she hears a lie, she automatically says, “Bullshit!”

Her ability gets her in trouble with her boss, who is involved in organized crime, and now she is on the run and solving crimes until they find her again (usually at the end of an episode).

It’s like a rock-and-roll Quantum Leap. Anyway, Christi likes the show because there are crimes and clues, and you have to figure it out. I watch it because I can get into it while I’m messing with my phone or doing a little writing.

Well, I have that same ability to detect BS.

When I work on clients, I connect with their energy. I didn’t start out doing it on purpose; I would start working on a client and pick up whatever they were sick with, and then they would feel great, and I would be left struggling.

Some friends taught me how to protect myself, and it helped, but “my shield” prevented me from connecting with my clients like I used to.

Now I connect with the source of all power in the universe: God. (You can call it whatever you want: Source, Universal Intelligence, Prana, etc.)

I send up a little antenna, and I’m protected AND connected.

When I’m in this state and talking to a client, I can clearly tell when someone is not telling the truth because THE BODY DOES NOT LIE!

Sometimes the cause of a physical issue is an emotional issue. If you can connect to someone’s energy like this, you can find and help clear out whatever is the root cause.

I’ve been telling people this quote for as long as I’ve been practicing:

You can lie to your mom, to your friends, and even to yourself, but you can’t lie to your chiropractor!

A polygraph lie detector only measures four things: heart rate and blood pressure, respiration rate, skin conductivity, and movement.

There are now better lie detectors that use EEGs (brain wave measurements). AI finds that voice analysis is a great way to detect honesty.

What’s better than all of that combined?

You.

Your nervous system can detect much more than all these other methods combined. I will try to teach what I know so far if you’d like.

And don’t forget to watch that show! I recommend it.

live long and prosper 🖖🏼

-Dan

@ f4a890ce:af88c4aa

執行摘要

比特幣自橫盤延續，總市值回落至3.24兆美元，成交量下降至591億美元，顯示短線資金趨於觀望。下週操作應聚焦三大關鍵數據：

衍生品市場槓桿與清算動態：觀察永續合約持倉與資金費率變化。若持倉再度攀升且費率轉為大幅正值，多頭風險將升高；同時留意爆倉價格與清算熱力圖，作為短線波動的前瞻指標。

ETF 資金流向：BTC/ETH ETF 流入與流出數據，是機構資金態度的風向標。若下週出現淨流出，將可能引發價格回調壓力；相反，流入維持則有助於支撐高位盤整。

鏈上資金結構與穩定幣規模：持續追蹤交易所餘額與鯨魚地址淨流出情況，評估大額資金動向；同時關注穩定幣總市值變化，若有減少，意味避險情緒抬頭，反之則暗示買盤動力仍持續。

總體而言，市場結構仍偏多，但需警惕「高槓桿＋低流動」可能帶來的瞬間波動。建議保持倉位彈性，讓數據引導調整策略，避免在高位盲目追高。

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加密市場

本週加密貨幣市場總市值維持在 3.26 兆美元 左右，顯示出市場基本面仍具穩定性。與此同時，當週總成交量下降至 546.84 億美元，反映出市場活躍度減弱，投資者交易意願相對謹慎。

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

市場情緒方面，恐懼與貪婪指數降至 52，處於中性範疇，表明投資者對市場前景的情緒有所保留。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/i/FearGreedIndex

此外，相對強弱指標落在中性至超賣區間，暗示部分標地在短線上可能面臨獲利回吐或技術性修正的壓力，而市場尚未進入絕對弱勢狀態。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/i/RsiHeatMap

山寨幣季節指數維持在 20，這說明市場資金依舊偏向配置於比特幣及其他主流加密貨幣，中小型代幣並未受到市場資金的大量青睞。

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-season-index/

穩定幣市值上升至 249.938 億美元，反映出部分資金正積極尋求避險，或準備在市場調整後進行潛在的佈局操作。

https://defillama.com/stablecoins

小結

本週加密市場在總市值維持穩定的同時，成交量的下降顯示出交易熱情的不足，加上恐懼與貪婪指數和相對強弱指標均呈現中性偏弱態勢，整體市場情緒趨向保守。山寨幣季節指數的低迷也反映出資金仍偏向主流幣種，而穩定幣市值的提升則表明投資者正在為市場未來調整或出現更具吸引力的價格點做準備。未來，需持續關注資金流向與宏觀經濟動態，以判斷市場後續走勢。

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衍生性商品

槓桿交易需求仍然強勁，本週永續合約持倉規模達 141.68B，雖然較前週有所下降，但仍顯示市場活躍度維持高水準。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/futures/Cryptofutures

資金費率方面，目前市場呈現 負費率 (-0.0047%)，顯示空方勢力增強，多數交易所的情緒偏向空頭。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/FundingRate

爆倉數據反映市場波動仍導致大量強制平倉，本週總計空單爆倉達 453.14M，而多單爆倉則達 1267.859M，多頭爆倉金額顯著高於空方，顯示市場對高槓桿多單的清算壓力較大。

其中 6月5日 空單爆倉 88.68M，多單爆倉 875.855M，這一天的市場劇烈波動導致大量強制清算。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/LiquidationData

清算熱力圖顯示，$106,000 附近 清算金額達 175.11M； $111,000 附近 也有 169.02M 的清算，這些區間可能成為近期市場波動的關鍵點。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap

期權市場活躍，投資者在不同價格區間進行對沖與佈局：

$100,000 行權價的看跌期權合約數量達 7.42K，總金額 $25.86M，市場對該區間的防禦仍然較強。

$110,000 行權價的看漲期權合約數量達 13.02K，總金額 $57.61M，顯示市場對上行的預期仍存在，但與上週相比略有下降。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/options/OIStrike

最大痛點出現在 2025/06/27 的 $100,000，名義金額 12.86B，顯示市場對該區間的交易活動仍較為集中。

https://www.coinglass.com/zh-TW/pro/options/max-pain

小結

本週加密市場顯示槓桿交易活躍度仍然維持高水準，但市場情緒偏向保守，資金費率轉為負值反映空方情緒增強。爆倉數據顯示多頭遭遇較大壓力，投資者在槓桿操作時需謹慎風險管理。期權市場的交易策略仍然分歧，市場在不同行權價格的佈局顯示投資者對後市走勢保持不同預期。建議交易者持續關注市場數據，根據槓桿交易動向調整策略，以降低市場震盪帶來的風險並尋找最佳交易機會。

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ETF

本週，加密貨幣衍生性商品市場出現顯著差異，資金流向呈現兩極化現象。比特幣（BTC）ETF方面，本週出現資金流出，金額達6.161億美元。這一變化顯示投資者對比特幣近期走勢產生疑慮，或在調整資金配置，以應對可能的市場風險和波動加劇。

以太坊（ETH）ETF則呈現資金流入趨勢，本週流入金額達 7,020 萬美元。較之於比特幣的趨勢，這一資金流入暗示出部分投資者對以太坊未來潛力充滿信心，特別是在其技術升級和生態系統發展背景下，認為相較於比特幣，ETH更具備吸引力。

https://coinmarketcap.com/zh-tw/etf/

小結

整體而言，本週加密貨幣衍生性商品市場呈現出明顯的資金流向差異。比特幣ETF大幅流出揭示了市場風險偏好的調整，而以太坊ETF的資金流入則表明投資者對其技術發展及生態系統持續看好。未來，投資人需持續關注宏觀經濟環境與技術創新如何影響各加密貨幣衍生性商品的動態，以便在不確定的市場中做出更合適的資金配置決策。

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鏈上分析 | BTC

二級交易所的比特幣儲備量再次創下斷崖式新低，顯示出市場上的流動性仍在減少。

https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=all_exchange&window=DAY&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

地址分布方面，10-100顆比特幣的地址數量持續下降，100-1k、1k-10k及10k以上顆數的地址數量則繼續上升，特別是10k以上地址的數量近期突然激增，顯示大戶的持幣情緒正在加強。

https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/67e2481ba2a7203afd437b31

鯨魚活躍地址數量全數上升，可以得知近期鯨魚們進場的速度逐步加快。

https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/67e2481ba2a7203afd437b31

Exchange Netflow 顯示出近期大額淨流出交易所的情況，這進一步證實了市場上多數投資者偏向長期持有。

https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-netflow-total?exchange=all_exchange&window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=column

Long Term Holder Supply 持續上升，說明持幣155天以上的長期投資者信心未減。

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/long-term-holder-supply/

URPD 顯示，104,000 美元以上買入的投資人已有被套跡象，若價格再次回落，將觸及 99,000 美元以下的支撐密集區。

https://charts.bgeometrics.com/distribution_realized_price.html

Short-Term Holder Realized Price 為 97,000 美元，短線若修正，此區間可能提供技術性支撐。

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/short-term-holder-realized-price/

溢價指數方面，Coinbase 溢價指數衝高至 0.105 以上，韓國溢價指數則維持在 2.52，顯示美韓兩地市場買盤情緒仍然正向，整體鏈上結構支撐比特幣中期續強的可能性。

https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/market-data/coinbase-premium-index?window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

Coinbase Premium Index

https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/market-data/korea-premium-index?window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line

Korea Premium Index

小結

本週比特幣鏈上數據顯示多頭格局進一步鞏固，二級交易所儲備量斷崖式下滑至新低，資金持續撤離交易所。

地址分布方面，10–100 BTC 的中小戶數量持續降低，而100–1 k、1 k–10 k及10 k+地址全線上升，尤其10 k+地址近期突增，顯示超級大戶加速佈局；鯨魚活躍地址也全面走高，進場節奏愈發急促。 Exchange Netflow 持續呈現大額淨流出，佐證長線持有趨勢，且 Long‑Term Holder Supply 持續攀升，反映市場偏好長期持有。成本面上，URPD 指標顯示回調後買在104,000美元以上的籌碼深度被套，未來若價格下行將觸及99,000美元以下投資人的成本區。

Short‑Term Holder Realized Price（155天內持幣者平均成本）約97,000美元，此區或成短期支撐，這也恰好和 URPD 指標吻合。

同時，Coinbase 溢價指數維持在0.105以上，韓國溢價指數則穩定於2.52，顯示全球買盤需求穩健。

整體而言，鏈上結構健康，資金流向多為長線建倉，但高位被套壓力與短期成本點仍需密切關注。

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總體經濟

本週加密貨幣市場持續受到宏觀經濟環境的顯著影響。聯邦基金有效利率穩定維持在 4.33%，顯示市場仍處於高利率壓制之下，資金流動性受到明顯限制，這一情勢對風險資產尤其是加密市場構成挑戰。

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

隨著 6 月 18 日 FOMC 會議臨近，市場普遍預期當前利率大概率將維持在 4.25%-4.50% 區間。然而，投資者亦將目光轉向 9 月 17 日的下一次會議，該會議上 4.0%-4.25% 區間的降息預期不斷攀升，目前已高達 51.8%，顯示市場對中期內利率調整存在明顯的分歧與期待。這種預期上的轉變，既意味著部分市場參與者看好未來資金回流的可能性，也使投資者對當前高利率環境下資產價格波動更加謹慎。

https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-t/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

消費者物價指數 (CPI) 持續維持在 2.33%，顯示通膨壓力穩定而可控；失業率則保持在 4.2%，反映出勞動市場的基本穩健。雖然這些基本面數據表現平穩，卻難以在高利率與流動性緊縮的背景下對加密貨幣價格形成強而有力的支撐，市場參與者更趨於採取保守的投資策略，尤其在高槓桿交易普遍存在的情況下，風險管理顯得尤為重要。

失業率:https://www.macromicro.me/series/37/unemployment-rate

消費者物價指數（CPI):https://www.macromicro.me/series/128/consumer-price-index-sa-yoy

小結

整體而言，加密市場依舊面臨高利率環境帶來的流動性限制與價格波動風險。雖然短期內市場情緒偏保守，但 9 月 17 日會議上降息預期的上升，或將為未來市場帶來積極轉機。投資者應持續關注 FOMC 會議及最新經濟數據變化，謹慎調整交易策略以應對可能出現的轉機與挑戰。

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新聞

Ripple 的穩定幣 RLUSD 在杜拜獲得批准

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/06/03/ripples-stablecoin-rlusd-gets-stamp-of-approval-in-dubai

MoonPay 在紐約獲得令人垂涎的 BitLicense

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/06/04/moonpay-grabs-coveted-bitlicense-approval-in-new-york

穩定幣正悄悄增強美國國力

https://www.coindesk.com/opinion/2025/06/04/stablecoins-are-quietly-reinforcing-u-s-national-power

韓國選舉加密貨幣友善總統李在明為新總統

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/06/04/south-korea-elects-crypto-friendly-lee-jae-myung-as-new-president

Circle 首次公開募股 (IPO) 定價為每股 31 美元，穩定幣發行人估值為 69 億美元

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/06/04/circle-debuts-on-nyse-at-31-per-share-valuing-stablecoin-issuer-at-62-billion

香港即將允許加密貨幣衍生性商品交易

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/06/05/hong-kong-set-to-allow-crypto-derivatives-trading

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@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

This week, on The Stacker Sports Podcast, we will mourn the loss of episode 34, but we'll also probably talk about new sports stuff.

For example, the NBA Finals got off to an amazing start. My "top 5 Hali" take is looking less and less dumb. Do we really believe in the Pacers yet, though?

We might also start our NBA off-season speculation. Which big stars are on the move? Which good teams are making big changes?

I actually did watch some of the NHL Finals game, but I didn't stay up for the end. Why are these games on so late?

Aaron Rodgers finally has a team for next season and the Steelers finally have a QB for next season. Does this match make sense?

@grayruby also has some hopium to share about why the 49ers big offseason acquisition will be much better than he was last year, when he "played for" the Super Bowl champs.

The Rockies are still historically bad, but they're no longer on pace to catch the Cleveland Spiders for the MLB record.

There might also be some MLB trade talk.

And, of course, we'll recap the ~Stacker_Sports contests.

What else do you want to hear about, stackers?

https://stacker.news/items/998734

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

Alright stackers, how'd you do today?

What goals did you hit? What do you need to work on tomorrow?

I had another solid day, but I want to get more stretching in tomorrow.

https://stacker.news/items/998508

@ 2cde0e02:180a96b9

日本の姫

https://stacker.news/items/998335

@ 7460b7fd:4fc4e74b

TRX 与 Crypto 政治代理模型：从哈耶克到稳定币主权

Crypto 即政治：从“罪”与“犯”的隐喻谈主权分化

“加密货币即政治”并非危言耸听。在社会分类中，“违法”与“犯罪”是两个层次的概念：前者意味着契约或规则的违背，而后者则是在权力结构下对自由行动者的政治性压制。换言之，有些行为本身并无“原罪”，却因触犯统治者利益被贴上“犯罪”的标签。这正如法学中对自然犯（mala in se，如偷盗谋杀等天生有害的行为）和法定犯（mala prohibita，因立法禁令才成为犯罪的行为）的区分。当代货币体系中，国家对货币发行与流通的垄断，造就了主权货币与“非法货币”的二元对立。奥地利学派经济学家哈耶克早在《货币的非国家化》中就预言：如果允许私人发行货币与法币公开竞争，最终能保持购买力稳定的货币将胜出finance.sina.cn。哈耶克认为政府垄断发行的不稳定货币终将让位于更稳定的竞争货币finance.sina.cn——这一观点在加密时代愈发具有隐喻意义。

如今的 Crypto 网络即是主权的实验场。各国监管者对稳定币、链上资金流动和法币通道的管控，构成了对加密行动者的“违法/犯罪”判定。例如，使用未授权稳定币进行跨境转账、绕过资本管制，并不违反当事人之间的契约，却往往被视作违法甚或犯罪行为——原因无他，只因这挑战了既有的金融主权架构。现象学视角提醒我们，应透过现象看本质：当执法者将自由交易行为定性为“犯罪”，正是传统主权对新兴数字主权的压制。Crypto世界中，“合法”与“非法”的界线并非由道德决定，而是由谁掌握规则决定。这为理解 Crypto 生态内各阵营的主权分化提供了理论框架：哪个网络掌握了自主的规则制定权，哪个网络就赢得了主权话语权。

稳定币主权与 TRX：黑灰资金的草根网络

稳定币是当前加密领域主权争夺的核心工具。最典型者莫过于 USDT 等美元锚定币——它们由私人公司发行，却承载着超主权货币的野心。尤其在 Tron（波场）网络 上，USDT 展现出惊人的统治力。2025年4月，波场上的 USDT 流通量突破700亿美元，占全球 USDT 总发行量近一半finance.sina.com.cn。截至今年5月，波场TRON上流通的 USDT 数量已反超以太坊，成为全球最大的稳定币发行与结算网络coindesk.comcoindesk.com。这种格局绝非偶然——波场独特的资源冻结机制（用户可冻结TRX获取带宽/能量从而基本免费交易）降低了交易门槛，使得小额高频的资金流动极为廉价。这使 TRX 链天然成为草根资金的“结算主链”，承接了大量主流金融体系之外的资金需求。

更值得关注的是波场上的黑市/灰色地带资金流动。低费率、高效率和对审查相对宽松的特性，吸引了大量游走于监管边缘的资本选择TRX链作为避风港。据区块链分析公司 TRM Labs 报告，2024年全球非法加密交易中有超过一半发生在 Tron 网络上，金额高达260亿美元dlnews.comdlnews.com。这些非法活动包括与受制裁实体相关的转账、诈骗黑客资金洗白以及暗网交易等dlnews.com。不法分子之所以青睐波场，正是看中了其稳定币通道和低交易成本等优势dlnews.com。北韩黑客在2024年盗取的8亿美元加密资产，大部分在数小时内经由波场链上的USDT迅速转移dlnews.com。联合国的分析同样指出，波场网络上的 USDT 已成为东亚地区欺诈和洗钱者的“首选”工具dlnews.com。由此可见，波场实际上扮演着**“无照金融公路”的角色：那些被传统金融体系拒之门外、没有正规交易所资格的人，可以通过波场上的USDT完成跨境汇兑和大额交易。这种自下而上的草根主权**，在波场网络上得到了前所未有的市场化体现。

当然，“草根主权”的另一面是高风险和争议。Tether公司虽偶有配合监管冻结特定链上地址，但波场整体上对资金流向的管束远不如银行体系。这使其成为地下资金的温床，也令波场背负“黑钱温床”的骂名。然而，换个角度看，这正验证了那句箴言：革命者在暴政者眼中即是罪犯。波场承载的灰色资金，恰恰反映了主流权力视角下的“犯罪”，但对于使用这些渠道的普通人来说，这可能只是追寻金融自由和机会的务实选择。

孙宇晨的政治人格：主权代理人的崛起

如果说波场TRON成为“无声多数”的金融主权载体，那么其创始人孙宇晨则高调地扮演起了加密世界的政治代理人。一直以来，加密圈华人创业者往往秉持“闷声发财、远离政治”的生存哲学，然孙宇晨选择了截然不同的道路：主动以政治为剧本，塑造个人和项目的话语权。

首先，他直接介入了美国的政治舆论场。2024年底以来，孙宇晨高调参与前总统川普推出的加密项目：斥资数千万美元认购“Trump系列”代币，成为该项目最大公开投资人之一reuters.com。2025年5月，孙宇晨作为头号持币者出席了川普在弗吉尼亚高尔夫俱乐部举办的私宴，与川普同台亮相reuters.com。他不仅以约1.85亿美元等值的钱包额度夺得饭局“竞标”第一名，还受邀成为川普家族加密平台 World Liberty Financial 的顾问reuters.com。这场引发争议的晚宴上，孙宇晨西装革履出镜，高调宣示其政治立场。巧合的是，就在饭局前后，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）突然宣布暂停此前对孙宇晨提起的证券欺诈诉讼，理由是“基于公共利益”reuters.com。这一戏剧性转折不禁令人生疑：孙宇晨深谙政治筹码运作之道，懂得借助美国权力更迭的契机为自己谋得一张“豁免令”。他在X平台（推特）上感慨对邀请心怀感激reuters.com——无形中传达出与未来政治盟友结盟的信号。

其次，孙宇晨积极布局中立主权地区，塑造自身的国际政治身份。他早在2019年即移居新加坡，将波场基金会设立于此，以避开中国大陆的监管高压。更令人瞩目的是，2021年底孙宇晨受聘出任加勒比海国家格林纳达驻世贸组织代表，正式踏入外交圈aljazeera.comaljazeera.com。身为一名加密创业者，却摇身一变成为“孙大使”，这在币圈乃至政坛都属破天荒之举。孙宇晨对媒体直言，加密行业发展到了需要主权国家和国际组织正视其潜力的阶段，他将致力于让区块链获得更多国家的认可aljazeera.com。他特别提到加勒比国家具有成为“下一个新加坡”的潜力：“加勒比国家离美国很近，但又不在美国，这非常关键。在美国境内你会陷入严苛监管和税收，而在加勒比，你可以避开这些桎梏。”aljazeera.com。这番话道出了孙宇晨战略的精髓——借助小国中立地带实现进可攻退可守的布局：既贴近美国这样的核心市场获取影响力，又保持独立主权豁免于其监管范围。

再次，孙宇晨还在国际舆论和文化象征上进行政治表态：例如高调竞拍知名艺术品、与名人互动、甚至不避讳与政治敏感人物（如特朗普阵营）同台。reuters.com川普在活动上直言“拜登政府迫害了加密创新者，我们要把他们带回美国”，孙宇晨的出现无疑为这一论调背书。在国内外社交媒体上，他乐于以“搞事者”形象示人，时而炮轰监管不公，时而与监管机构周旋谈判。从购买巴菲特午餐到押注川普NFT，从宣布波场成为多米尼加共和国官方公链到在洪都拉斯建立加密公司，他一再突破华人企业家避讳政治的传统藩篱，塑造出一个敢于同各国势力斡旋的主权代言人形象。市场也给予了正向反馈：在2023-2025这一轮震荡周期中，TRX价格和生态韧性远超许多竞争对手；波场不仅未被监管风暴击沉，反而因其政治押注而收获新增用户和资金青睐（USDT市值占比的提升即是一例finance.sina.com.cn）。孙宇晨个人也凭借外交官身份游走于各国高层，增强了项目背书的公信力。

与孙宇晨类似，币安创始人赵长鹏（CZ）也体现了“Crypto政治代理人”的影子。作为另一位华人加密巨头，CZ深知监管博弈的重要：币安从中国出发，几经辗转注册地于马耳他、开曼等地，近年来又与迪拜、阿布扎比等中东监管方建立良好关系。尽管币安在美国也受到诉讼挑战，但CZ本人频繁出席各国峰会、主动配合调查、游说政策制定者，其全球公关布局使 BNB 等币安生态资产始终享有一定溢价。可以说，孙宇晨和CZ代表的“华人币”之所以在风雨飘摇的市场中幸存并趋强，正是因为他们扮演了超越技术层面的政治角色：当绝大多数项目埋头编码或躲避监管时，他们选择直面政治、影响政治。

技术乌托邦的失语：ETH、SOL、XRP、ADA 的失速

将波场TRX和币安BNB的经历与其他主流链对照，更能突显“政治代理机制”的缺失所带来的代价。以太坊（ETH）、Solana（SOL）、瑞波（XRP）、Cardano（ADA）等项目，各有辉煌的技术远景或社区共识，却在本轮周期里不同程度陷入了失语和失速状态，一个重要原因正是缺乏有效的政治代理。

• 以太坊：作为智能合约的开创者，以太坊一直醉心于技术迭代和去中心化理想。然而，面对现实世界的监管压力，以太坊社区显得相对被动甚至天真。2021年后，美国制裁“Tornado Cash”等事件使以太坊网络一度出现矿工/验证者自我审查（OFAC合规）的现象，凸显出去中心化网络在政治压力下的脆弱。以太坊基金会和维塔利克等核心人物选择回避直接介入政治角力，试图以技术中立自守。但结果是，在稳定币领域，以太坊逐渐让出优势：USDT更多地流向了“不问来路”的波场，而USDC这种受美国监管严格的稳定币虽然依赖以太坊，却因为监管风险屡屡遭遇增发受限、黑名单冻结等情况。这使得以太坊在**“金融主权承载”**方面的话语权削弱。没有政治代理人替以太坊发声，其技术优势难以转化为对抗监管的筹码。相反，我们看到SEC在近期诉讼中对ETH网开一面（未将ETH列为证券），某种程度上是因其高度依赖美国企业（如Coinbase、Circle）的合规运营——这并非政治胜利，而更像被纳入现有规则体系的被动选择。

• Solana、Cardano：这两条后起之秀公链，一个以极致性能著称，一个以学术范严谨著称。然而，他们在制度博弈上都缺乏存在感。2023年，美国SEC在对币安、Coinbase等交易所的诉讼中，点名将 SOL、ADA 等列为未经注册的证券，导致相关代币价格暴跌、机构退避cointelegraph.com。SOL和ADA团队自身并无强有力的政治资源予以反击：Solana团队更多精力放在修复网络停机和拓展应用上，对监管定性只能听天由命；Cardano的查尔斯·霍斯金森虽活跃社交媒体，但更多是科普技术和理念，对抗监管的实际影响力有限。当监管大棒挥下，这些专注技术的项目只能被动接受市场信心滑坡的现实。简言之，缺少政治代理等于缺少话语权——无论技术多优，没有人在权力场为你据理力争，你的话语权就只能拱手让人。

• 瑞波 XRP：作为对比，XRP的境遇更具讽刺意味。瑞波公司早早意识到监管的重要性，选择在美国走法律途径与SEC对簿公堂，试图以司法胜利换取地位合法。cointelegraph.com2023年中，瑞波在诉讼中部分胜诉，法院认定XRP本身不是证券，这看似是政治博弈的成果。然而，诉讼旷日持久耗费了瑞波数年的黄金发展期。期间XRP市场份额和舆论热度大不如前，新兴稳定币和跨境支付方案已趁虚而入。可以说，瑞波是少数走上前台直接对抗美国监管的项目，但孤军奋战终究力量有限：没有更广泛政治联盟支撑，胜利也难掩失地之痛。相比之下，孙宇晨选择的并非司法缠斗，而是迂回结盟，这种灵活的政治手腕或许更为有效。

归根结底，ETH、SOL、ADA 等在本轮周期的失速，提醒我们技术乌托邦需要现实政治护航。那些沉迷于宏大技术愿景却忽视政治策略的项目，往往在监管和资本博弈中败下阵来。反观TRX和BNB，一方面技术上并无颠覆性创新（波场VM几乎就是以太坊的变体，BNB Chain 也高度模仿以太架构），但却凭借政治上的主动赢得了市场认可——市值和生态逆势增长就是明证。

结论：主权表达的市场化工具

“从哈耶克到稳定币主权”，我们见证的是货币形态和政治形态的双重演进。哈耶克式的货币竞争思想在加密时代照进现实：私人发行的数字货币在与法定货币争夺稳定性和信任，而这一过程本质上就是主权的竞争与表达。加密货币从来都不仅是冷冰冰的技术产品，更是不断演化的主权表达的市场化工具。每一条公链、每一个代币，都在尝试承载某种主权意志：要么是传统国家主权的延伸（例如各国央行数字货币CBDC），要么是新兴数字共同体的自治主权，要么像USDT/波场这样，成为无国籍资本的影子主权。

TRX 的兴起充分说明，加密项目要取得长足发展，技术功能固然重要，但更关键的是充当“底层政治协调物”的能力。波场并没有因为VM设计优雅而胜出，而是因为它契合了特定政治经济环境下的市场需求：在强监管与资本外流并存的亚洲新兴市场，在美欧银行体系排斥的一角，波场提供了一个去中心化的政治避难所，让资本在不同主权之间自由穿行。aljazeera.com波场作为稳定币和博彩应用的主要载体，被贴上了“不受待见”的标签，但这正是另一种形式的民意表达。市场选择波场，并赋予TRX正溢价，正是对其他缺乏政治承载力项目的集体投票。

“Crypto 即政治”并非说技术不重要，而是强调技术的成败取决于其所嵌入的政治坐标。当ETH坚持代码法则时，TRX已经学会了在代码之上玩转权力棋局；当SOL醉心于极限TPS时，BNB已将自己融入全球离岸金融版图。展望未来，加密世界的竞争将更加赤裸地表现为主权影响力的竞争。谁能更好地平衡各方主权、充当不同利益的代理人，谁就能在市场中取得优势。这或许是加密运动发展至今给我们的最大的启示：去中心化的终点，并非消弭政治，而是重构政治。加密货币让更多人有机会参与主权的创造和表达，而TRX等“政治积极型”项目的案例则证明了，在市场的维度上，政治选择和市场选择早已融为一体。

参考资料：

• 哈耶克主张由私人发行货币与法币竞争finance.sina.cn

• 波场TRON上USDT流通量突破700亿美元，占全球近半finance.sina.com.cn

• TRON超越以太坊成最大USDT发行网络coindesk.comcoindesk.com

• 2024年约260亿美元非法资金经由波场转移，居各链之首dlnews.comdlnews.com

• 波场低费用和稳定币优势吸引大量黑灰产资金dlnews.com

• 孙宇晨高调参与特朗普家族加密项目，成为最大持币者之一reuters.com

• 美国SEC出于“公共利益”暂停对孙宇晨的诉讼reuters.com

• 孙宇晨出任格林纳达驻世贸组织代表，波场成加勒比官方合作链aljazeera.comaljazeera.com

• 孙宇晨称需让主权国家正视区块链潜力，将精力投向国家层面的推动aljazeera.com

• 美国SEC曾在诉讼中将SOL、ADA等列为未经注册证券，后放弃相关请求cointelegraph.com

@ 318ebaba:9a262eae

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@ 2b998b04:86727e47

This is my first test -- I'm writing a blog post (using primal long form post) on nostr once and using github actions to fetch and store article as a static page on github pages to be used in a website (blog.stantonweb.com) and potentially other places.

@ b2a8fdbc:dcab1f03

ถ้าเรามี "เงินที่ดี" ที่มีจำนวนจำกัดและสามารถเก็บมูลค่าได้อย่างแท้จริง ภาวะเงินฝืดที่เกิดจากคุณสมบัติเช่นนี้ อาจนำไปสู่ผลลัพธ์ที่เป็นบวกอย่างมหาศาลต่อคุณภาพชีวิตและมุมมองของมนุษย์ต่อการดำรงอยู่ ไม่ใช่เพียงแค่ความกังวลเรื่องการว่างงาน

เงินฝืด: ก้าวข้ามความกลัวการตกงาน สู่การค้นหาความหมายของชีวิต แนวคิดที่ว่ามนุษย์ไม่ได้เกิดมาเพื่อทำงานหากินไปแต่ละวัน แต่เพื่อค้นหาความหมายที่แท้จริงของชีวิต เป็นปรัชญาที่ลึกซึ้ง และสอดคล้องกับแนวคิดที่ว่า เมื่อเงินมีคุณสมบัติที่มั่นคงและมีจำกัด อาจนำมาซึ่งการเปลี่ยนแปลงเชิงบวกดังนี้:

1. ความมั่นคงทางการเงินและคุณภาพชีวิตที่ดีขึ้น เมื่อเงินมีคุณสมบัติที่เก็บรักษามูลค่าได้ดี นั่นหมายความว่ากำลังซื้อของเงินจะไม่ลดลงไปตามกาลเวลา ตรงกันข้าม อาจเพิ่มขึ้นด้วยซ้ำในระบบเศรษฐกิจที่มีประสิทธิภาพ สิ่งนี้จะส่งผลให้:

• ลดความกังวลเรื่องค่าครองชีพ : ผู้คนจะกังวลเรื่องรายได้ไม่พอค่าใช้จ่ายน้อยลง เพราะเงินที่หามาได้ในวันนี้ จะมีมูลค่าที่คงที่หรือเพิ่มขึ้นในอนาคต ทำให้วางแผนชีวิตได้ง่ายขึ้น
• การออมและการลงทุนมีประสิทธิภาพ : แรงจูงใจในการออมจะสูงขึ้น เพราะเงินที่เก็บไว้มีมูลค่าเพิ่มขึ้นเอง ทำให้เกิดความมั่งคั่งสะสมได้ง่ายขึ้น ซึ่งสามารถนำไปลงทุนในสิ่งที่มีคุณค่าอย่างแท้จริง
• ปลดล็อคจากวงจร "วิ่งไล่จับเงิน": เมื่อไม่ต้องกังวลเรื่องเงินเฟ้อกัดกินมูลค่าเงิน มนุษย์อาจไม่จำเป็นต้องทำงานหนักมากเพื่อชดเชยกำลังซื้อที่หายไป ทำให้มีเวลาและพลังงานเหลือเฟือสำหรับสิ่งอื่น ๆ ในชีวิต

2. การนิยาม "งาน" และ "คุณค่า" ใหม่ ในบริบทที่เงินมีความมั่นคง การทำงานอาจไม่ได้ถูกมองว่าเป็นเพียงหนทางในการ "หาเลี้ยงชีพ" อีกต่อไป แต่จะกลายเป็นการสร้างคุณค่าที่แท้จริง:

• งานที่สร้างสรรค์และมีความหมาย : ผู้คนอาจมีอิสระมากขึ้นในการเลือกทำงานที่ตนเองหลงใหล มีความหมาย หรือสร้างสรรค์สิ่งใหม่ ๆ ที่เป็นประโยชน์ต่อสังคม ไม่ใช่แค่การทำงานเพื่อเงิน
• ลดการแข่งขันที่ไม่จำเป็น : เมื่อมูลค่าของเงินมั่นคง การแข่งขันเพื่อแย่งชิงทรัพยากรที่มีจำกัดอาจลดลง ทำให้สังคมมีทิศทางที่ร่วมมือกันมากขึ้น
• การพัฒนามนุษย์อย่างรอบด้าน : เมื่อมีเวลาและทรัพยากรมากขึ้น มนุษย์จะมีโอกาสในการเรียนรู้ พัฒนาทักษะใหม่ ๆ หรือทุ่มเทให้กับงานอดิเรกและความสนใจส่วนตัว ซึ่งนำไปสู่การพัฒนาตนเองอย่างรอบด้าน

3. การมุ่งเน้นไปที่ความหมายที่แท้จริงของชีวิต หากมนุษย์หลุดพ้นจากพันธนาการของการ "ทำงานเพื่ออยู่รอด" ก็จะมีพื้นที่ทางความคิดและจิตใจที่กว้างขวางขึ้นเพื่อ:

• ค้นหาความสุขจากภายใน : ความสุขอาจไม่ได้มาจากการสะสมวัตถุ แต่มาจากการใช้ชีวิตอย่างมีสติ การเชื่อมโยงกับผู้อื่น หรือการทำกิจกรรมที่เติมเต็มจิตใจ
• การพัฒนาจิตวิญญาณ : มีเวลามากขึ้นในการสำรวจปรัชญา ศาสนา หรือศิลปะ เพื่อค้นหาความหมายของชีวิตที่ลึกซึ้งกว่าการบริโภค
• การดูแลสิ่งแวดล้อมและสังคม : เมื่อความกังวลเรื่องเศรษฐกิจลดลง สังคมอาจหันมาให้ความสำคัญกับการรักษาสิ่งแวดล้อม การแก้ปัญหาสังคม และการสร้างโลกที่ดีขึ้นสำหรับทุกคน

"เงินที่ดี" ที่มีคุณสมบัติจำกัดและเก็บมูลค่าได้นั้น มีศักยภาพที่จะเปลี่ยนแปลงพลวัตของสังคมและช่วยให้มนุษย์สามารถมีชีวิตที่มั่งคั่งและมีความหมายได้มากขึ้น โดยไม่ได้ถูกจำกัดอยู่เพียงแค่การทำงานเพื่อความอยู่รอดเท่านั้น

@ 2cde0e02:180a96b9

pen & ink; monochromized

Magdalena Carmen Frida Kahlo y Calderón[a] (Spanish pronunciation: [ˈfɾiða ˈkalo]; 6 July 1907 – 13 July 1954[1]) was a Mexican painter known for her many portraits, self-portraits, and works inspired by the nature and artifacts of Mexico. Inspired by the country's popular culture, she employed a naïve folk art style to explore questions of identity, postcolonialism, gender, class, and race in Mexican society.[2] Her paintings often had strong autobiographical elements and mixed realism with fantasy. In addition to belonging to the post-revolutionary Mexicayotl movement, which sought to define a Mexican identity, Kahlo has been described as a surrealist or magical realist.[3] She is also known for painting about her experience of chronic pain.[4]

wikipedia

https://stacker.news/items/997980

@ 7460b7fd:4fc4e74b

TRX 资源冻结式 Staking 与用户结构演化：对价格发现机制的影响分析

引言

TRX（波场币）作为波场 TRON 区块链的原生代币，因其独特的“冻结换资源”式 staking 模型而呈现出不同于传统公链的用户结构演变轨迹。这种机制在不同发展阶段吸引了截然不同类型的用户，从早期高度集中的机构持有者，到中期大量利用资源冻结套利的灰色产业，再到近期随着合规压力下资产向零散用户转移所形成的更广泛持有群体。本文将深入分析这一用户结构的演变历程，以及这种变化如何潜在影响 TRX 的市场价格发现机制。我们将按照时间脉络探讨以下问题：

• 初期设计：波场最初的 staking 模型如何偏向“对公场景”（如交易所间结算、机构资源调配），导致早期 TRX 资金和投票权集中度极高？

• 灰产利用：灰色产业（电信诈骗、网络赌博、地下钱庄等）如何利用 TRX “冻结换能量”机制降低 USDT 等稳定币转账成本，在波场上形成中期稳定的使用者群体？

• 用户下沉：随着各大交易所面临日益严格的合规压力，这些灰产地址如何将资金转移给“无交易所”通道的散户和小型平台账户，导致 TRX 使用权和持仓逐步向更广泛的普通用户渗透？

• 价格发现影响：这种持币结构的变化是否可能引导“零售价格发现”，即当大量散户持有 TRX 时，是否会对价格走势产生聚合影响（类似 GameStop 股票或 meme 币的散户抱团现象）？

• 链上数据演化：若数据支持，我们将呈现 TRX 持仓结构在链上的历史演变情况（如交易所热钱包占比、已知灰产地址占比、散户地址占比等），借助 Nansen、Lookonchain、Arkham、Dune 等分析工具的公开数据来说明上述趋势。

接下来，将从背景入手介绍波场 TRX 的 staking 机制设计及其早期影响，然后依据链上数据和行为证据分阶段分析用户结构转变，结合博弈论视角讨论价格发现机制，最后给出结论和展望。

背景：TRX 资源冻结型 Staking 模型与早期集中化

波场 TRON 于 2018 年主网上线，采用 委托权益证明（DPoS） 共识机制，其核心是 资源冻结（质押）换取网络资源和权益 的模式cryptorank.io。用户可以冻结一定数量的 TRX 以获取 带宽（用于普通交易）和 能量（用于智能合约操作）的配额，从而用资源抵扣交易手续费cryptorank.io。此外，冻结 TRX 还能获得 Tron Power（投票权），用于参与超级代表（Super Representatives，SR）节点的选举，从而分享出块奖励和投票奖励。这一机制本质上鼓励大量持币并长期冻结，以换取低成本交易和治理权。

TRX 早期的经济设计和应用场景明显偏向**“大户”和“机构”。首先，TRX 在 2017 年 ICO 分发时就有相当集中度——总发行1000亿枚中，约40%面向公开发售，15%私募，35%由项目方保留cryptorank.io。项目方（波场基金会）及早期投资人一开始就掌握了近一半的代币供应量。其次，在 DPoS 模式下，持币多者在投票治理中掌握更大权力，早期27个超级代表节点的投票由少数巨鲸地址主导。波场联合创始人、前 CTO 陈志强曾直言：“TRON 的代币分布是中心化的，超级代表是中心化的”cointelegraph.com；前27个超级代表节点拥有超过1.7亿票数，其中大部分受波场官方控制，普通散户的投票几乎无法左右结果cointelegraph.com。这意味着网络治理和出块权高度集中在项目方和早期大户手中**，staking 机制对中小持币者参与并不友好。这种局面导致 TRX 在生态早期呈现出明显的寡头格局。

更重要的是，波场团队有意将 TRX 打造成 高吞吐低成本的链上结算网络，这吸引了交易所和机构用户的青睐。2019年，创始人孙宇晨敏锐地抓住 交易所间稳定币跨链转账 的需求：由于以太坊网络手续费高、速度慢，交易所间结算 USDT 等稳定币成本很高，而波场上的 TRC20-USDT 转账费用极低、确认快theblockbeats.info。孙宇晨当即采取激进补贴策略，动用波场超级节点的挖矿收益，投入数亿元人民币补贴 TRC20-USDT 的充提手续费，在各大交易所间推广波场作为USDT转账的介质theblockbeats.info。据报道，当时通过波场网络充提 USDT 的用户可以享受相当于16%\~30%的收益（手续费返还优惠），极大刺激了交易所采用波场网络theblockbeats.info。这一系列措施使 TRC20版 USDT 的流通量和交易量在短时间内飙升，波场迅速取代以太坊成为 USDT 最主要的发行和转移平台。交易所和场外结算机构成为 TRX 生态的核心参与者：他们大量持有并冻结 TRX 来获取能量用于大额稳定币转账，或者直接利用波场网络进行跨所清算。这奠定了 TRX 早期资金和使用的高度机构化、集中化特征：头部交易所和项目方持仓占比极高，散户持有比例相对很低。

图：2024年初 TRX 持币分布的集中度。数据显示前10大地址合计持有约31.6%的供应量，前500大地址合计持有约85.5%的供应cryptorank.io。这印证了波场生态早期的持币高度集中在少数机构和巨鲸手中。

综上，波场 TRX 通过独特的冻结换资源机制，将手续费成本内化为持币收益，迎合了交易所、支付清算等对公场景对廉价高速链上转账的需求。在2018-2019年间，这一定位成功吸引了大量机构资金，但也造成了代币分布和治理权的高度集中。这是 TRX 用户结构演化的起点：以机构和巨鲸为主体的集中式持仓格局。

链上数据与行为层分析

随着波场网络逐步发展，TRX 的用户结构并未一成不变。链上数据和使用者行为表明，TRX 的持有者构成经历了从集中到扩散的动态演化，大致可划分为以下阶段：

初期阶段：机构主导的集中持仓

在主网上线后的早期（2018\~2019年），TRX 的持仓和使用主要集中在交易所、基金会等少数主体。从链上持币分布看，2019年时 TRX 前5个地址持有全网一半以上代币供应量，前10名地址接近60%（包括波场基金会及创始团队地址、少数大交易所的钱包等）cryptorank.io。即便到2025年中，集中度仍然较高——据统计前10大持币者仍合计拥有约25%的供应ccn.com，其中最大的单一地址占比超过8%ccn.com（推测为波场基金会或主要交易所冷钱包）。可见在初期，头部持有者在供应中占据主导。这种格局的形成，一方面源自前述代币分发和 DPoS 机制让项目方及早期投资人持有巨量筹码；另一方面，交易所为提供波场网络USDT充提现也大量囤积并冻结 TRX 获取带宽/能量，从而自身成为持币大户。

链上行为数据显示，交易所地址在 TRX 交易活动中占相当权重。大量 TRX 被冻结在交易所热/冷钱包用于日常为用户支付交易费用或资源租借。例如，币安在2019年直接成为波场超级代表节点之一，拥有全网超过一半以上的超级代表选票，当时就反映出交易所对 TRX 生态的深度介入coinmarketcap.comcointelegraph.com。总的来说，初期阶段 TRX 的用例主要是交易所间结算的媒介和赚取投票收益的质押资产，对应的用户主要是大宗资金持有者（交易所、基金会、早期投资人）。普通散户在这一阶段对 TRX 的参与度有限，无论持仓量还是交易笔数占比都很低。价格发现也主要由这些“大玩家”驱动——他们有能力通过场外交易或协议控制市场供给，从而较大程度上主导 TRX 的价格走向。

中期阶段：灰产经济的稳定使用者崛起

2019年至2021年后，随着波场网络的稳定运行和 USDT 等稳定币在波场上的广泛流通，一个意想不到的用户群体开始在 TRX 生态中扮演重要角色：灰产经济体。这里所指的灰产包括电信网络诈骗、网络赌博平台、地下钱庄洗钱团伙等非法或游走在法律灰色地带的组织。这些团体发现，波场的**“冻结 TRX 换能量”机制非常适合他们大规模、频繁地转移资金：通过持有并冻结一定量的 TRX，他们可以几乎免费地在波场链上无限次转账 USDT** 等代币linqihuishou.com。相比在以太坊等公链上高昂的 Gas 费用，波场提供的这种低成本转账渠道对灰产资金具有巨大吸引力。

联合国毒品和犯罪办公室（UNODC）的一份报告指出，在东南亚地区从事洗钱和诈骗的犯罪团伙偏好使用波场链上的 USDT 作为转移资产的工具dlnews.com。报告称，仅在截至2022年9月的一年间，就有逾170亿美元等值的 USDT 涉及非法交易所、地下洗钱等活动dlnews.comdlnews.com。波场因其匿名性强、转账快且成本近乎为零，成为这些团伙的“首选”网络dlnews.com。另一份调查也揭示，使用波场 USDT 的网络赌博和洗钱架构俨然形成了一个平行的地下银行系统protos.com。不法分子往往在国内收取现金，通过OTC渠道换成波场 USDT，在链上层层划转，最后在境外兑换回法币完成洗钱3e97756f-e20a-4497-8bc2-57f45e005c8a.baidu.scalaris-eci.com。

灰产大规模涌入波场带来了 TRX 生态的中期用户结构转变：虽然这些团伙的主要目的是利用 USDT 等稳定币，但为了降低成本他们必须持有一定数量的 TRX 来支付手续费或获取能量。这就意味着一批新的持币群体——灰产地址——开始稳定持有和使用 TRX。链上可以观察到许多可疑地址经常冻结大量 TRX，然后进行频繁的 USDT 转账操作。这些地址往往关联着诈骗资金、黑钱，通过分析工具已被标记为高风险。在波场交易笔数中，这些灰产相关地址的交易占有相当比例，它们维系着庞大的跨境资金流。dlnews.comprotos.com

值得注意的是，灰产用户的TRX持有行为具有“两面性”：一方面，他们持有 TRX 完全是出于工具用途，对 TRX 价格本身并不敏感，往往在完成资金转移后就会解冻并抛售 TRX（换回稳定币或法币）。因此，灰产用户的存在为 TRX 提供了持续的基础交易需求，但同时他们也可能对价格形成抛压。另一方面，由于这部分需求庞大且相对稳定（例如地下钱庄每天都有大额 USDT 要汇出），某种程度上托起了 TRX 的链上活跃度，甚至提高了网络的基础价值支撑。到2024年，波场上 USDT 的流通量已经超过以太坊，占到 USDT 总供应的一半以上cointelegraph.com；波场每日处理的稳定币转账金额高达数百亿美元，全球所有稳定币交易量中近30%通过波场网络完成coindesk.comcoindesk.com。在这些惊人的数字背后，灰产资金不可小觑。

综上，中期阶段 TRX 用户结构从单纯的机构主导，演变为**“机构+灰产”双重主导**格局。灰产经济成为 TRX 生态中隐形但重要的参与者，为 TRX 提供了源源不断的交易量和实用需求。然而，这种需求带有很强的功利性，在正常市场中往往难以转化为对 TRX 价格的主动支撑。

转型阶段：合规压力与持币群体下沉

进入2023-2024年，全球监管环境对加密行业（尤其是交易所）日趋严格，大型中心化交易所纷纷加强了 KYC/AML（反洗钱） 审查。这对利用交易所渠道“进出”资金的灰产团伙造成了沉重打击：大量涉嫌非法的地址被交易所列入黑名单冻结，稳定币发行方 Tether 也开始配合执法，冻结了部分波场网络上的可疑 USDT 账户cointelegraph.comcointelegraph.com。

图：由波场、Tether 与 TRM Labs 于2024年8月成立的“T3”金融犯罪联合行动小组，自成立以来已冻结超过1.26亿美元涉案 USDTcointelegraph.com。其中近一半涉及洗钱，另有相当比例涉及投资诈骗cointelegraph.com。这一行动反映出监管合规压力下，波场网络上大额非法资金池正受到打击。面对这种压力，灰产资金的流转模式开始转变。

随着“大额、集中”的灰产资金在主流交易所难以脱身，这些团伙被迫改变策略，更加依赖非交易所渠道来“出清”资金。他们开始将大宗资金拆分，通过场外交易（OTC）网络或小型换汇平台，转移给众多零散的个人地址。例如，一个诈骗团伙可能将上百万 USDT 分拆成上千笔小额转账，分别发给成百上千个个人钱包；这些个人再通过点对点方式把 USDT 换成现金。在中国等地破获的地下钱庄案件中，就发现犯罪团伙通过海量的个人数字钱包收款，以规避大额交易监控3e97756f-e20a-4497-8bc2-57f45e005c8a.baidu.scalaris-eci.com。波场网络的低费率使得**“大拆小”式的分散转账成为可能且经济**。

这一过程中，TRX 的使用者结构出现了**“下沉”**。原先主要由灰产团伙自己持有的 TRX（用于支付手续费或冻结换能量），现在逐步分散到大量普通用户手中。很多此前从未直接接触过波场的散户，因为参与OTC交易或接受灰产资金而开始持有少量 TRX。例如，一些东南亚地区的务工人员通过地下渠道汇款，在接收USDT时被要求使用波场网络的钱包，这意味着他们需要持有一点 TRX 来支付手续费。同样地，一些小型境外换汇商为了承接灰产的出金业务，也开始积累 TRX 以便快速完成批量转账。

链上数据支持了这种“去中心化”的趋势：CryptoQuant 的研究指出，截至2024年7月，波场网络上小额持有者（“散户”）的数量已经超过5260万，占据 USDT 转账笔数的28%左右newsdirect.com。也就是说，有数千万计的普通用户活跃在波场上进行小额交易。波场官方数据显示，到2025年初，总用户账户数已突破3亿，日活跃地址超过100万，每日小额稳定币交易数百万笔coindesk.comnewsdirect.com。这些数字表明，TRX 与波场网络的使用已深入到广泛的民间层面，不再只是大户的专属。

从持币结构看，虽然大户依然握有大量筹码，但相比早期，中小地址合计持有的比例有所上升。前文提到截至2025年5月前10名地址占供应约25%，而在更早时期这一数字一度超过30%cryptorank.ioccn.com。顶级持有者占比的下降意味着更多代币分散到了小持仓地址中。当然，大部分散户并非因为投资目的囤积 TRX，他们往往只持有满足转账所需的少量（比如几十个甚至几个 TRX用于手续费）。然而，当数以千万计的用户都持有哪怕少量 TRX 时，其总量也不可忽视。此外，一些原本为灰产服务的小平台、小型交易商，随着合规压力增加也可能选择转型，通过合法途径运营，这些玩家持有的 TRX 由“暗”转“明”，进一步增加了公开市场上的流通筹码。

**这一阶段的核心转变在于：TRX 的持有者基础变得空前广泛。**从链上身份看，除了交易所和已知灰产地址，普通散户地址在网络活动和持仓中的占比显著提高newsdirect.com。TRX 不再仅仅是机构间的结算工具或黑市的洗钱桥梁，它开始进入寻常用户的钱包，成为跨境汇款、支付和个人转账的一种选择。在非洲、中东等通货不稳定地区，波场 USDT 甚至被用作日常价值存储手段，TRX 则提供了必要的基础设施dlnews.com。这种下沉为 TRX 的市场生态带来了新的变量：当持币者从少数改为众多，价格发现的参与者结构也相应改变。

博弈模型讨论：散户崛起能否引导价格发现？

随着 TRX 持有和使用群体愈发多元化，一个关键问题浮出水面：如此广泛的散户参与，是否会改变 TRX 的价格发现机制，乃至引发类似 GameStop 或 meme 币那样的“散户聚合”行情？ 从博弈论和市场微观结构角度，我们可以进行以下分析。

1. 定价权由大转小的再分配：在传统金融和早期加密市场中，少数大玩家（做市商、鲸鱼、机构）往往通过信息优势和资金优势主导价格。然而，当持仓分散到众多散户后，市场定价权力开始更平均地分配。如果散户群体足够活跃，他们的集体交易行为（买入或卖出）可以对价格产生显著影响。尤其在社交媒体发达的时代，散户可以通过舆论形成某种“共识预期”。例如，若大批散户相信“波场用户遍地开花将推高 TRX 价值”，他们可能趋于买入持有，从而真的推高价格——这类似于一种自证预期的动态。散户数量庞大且分散，单个看似微不足道，但**“乌合之众”在同步行动时可产生和巨鲸相媲美的资金量**。GameStop 股票之所以在2021年出现爆炸性逼空行情，就是因为数百万散户在网络论坛上形成合力，对抗华尔街空头。如果 TRX 的散户持有者也形成共同的看涨信念，可能出现交易行为的正反馈，推动价格快速上涨。

2. 网络效应与认知偏差：波场网络广泛的用户基础本身就会带来网络效应。每增加一位用户，TRX 的实用价值和潜在需求就略有提高。当数千万用户都在使用某个网络时，会产生一种“这么多人用，币价应该有支撑”的认知偏差。散户往往受“用户规模=价值”直觉影响而追涨。coindesk.comnewsdirect.com中的数据（每日超百万活跃地址、全球稳定币流通近三成经波场）可能被解读为 TRX 的基本面支撑，从而增强散户的持有信心。这种对基本面的再认知有别于灰产用户时期——灰产虽使用波场但不会宣扬其价值，而普通用户的使用反而可能转化为对 TRX 的口碑传播和正面情绪。由此，一个正向循环可能形成：用户基础扩大 → 市场认可度提高 → 新投资者涌入 → 价格上升 → 吸引更多用户。

3. 大户与散户的博弈：当然，散户行情能否持续，还取决于大户（早期鲸鱼、机构）的行为反应。一种可能情景是类似meme股/币：当散户推高价格时，大户出于逐利反而顺势助涨，甚至刻意制造舆论迎合散户，以便自己高位出货。如果 TRX 出现快速拉升，早期持有巨量筹码的老玩家可能选择逢高抛售套现，给上涨造成阻力。这一点在博弈上体现为：散户试图通过一致行动改变定价，但理性的大利润持有者会反向博弈，利用散户情绪行情实现盈利。TRX 目前前几大地址仍掌握巨额筹码，他们的抛压能力依旧很强。如果没有新的强力资金接盘，大户的出货可能使散户难以持续控盘。GameStop等案例中，散户成功逼空的前提之一是大户被困住无法立即抛售（空头被迫买入、公司高管锁仓等）。而在TRX市场，波场基金会、交易所等钱包并无锁定约束，完全可以利用流动性高点出售。因此，散户要引导价格发现，必须面对大户博弈的反作用力。

4. 市场情绪和触发事件：散户聚合行为往往需要一个导火索或叙事。GameStop有“对抗华尔街”的叙事，Dogecoin等meme币有马斯克等名人站台或者社区狂欢。TRX 虽有庞大用户，但缺乏类似的戏剧性话题来凝聚炒作热情。Justin Sun 虽然善于营销（如天价拍巴菲特午餐等），但这些年 TRX 价格相对稳健，没有出现过山车式暴涨暴跌，说明市场对其噱头相对理性。如果未来出现某个事件——例如波场生态中诞生一个现象级应用、或哪位投资大佬高调支持 TRX ——这可能点燃散户的想象力，触发一波情绪行情。在博弈模型上，这类似于公共知识的形成：散户需要确信“大家都会买”，而导火索事件恰恰提供了这样的公共信号。如果信号足够强烈，散户预期可协调，形成簇拥买入的纳什均衡。反之，在缺乏信号的平静环境中，散户各自为战，价格更多反映基本面与存量大户操作，不易自发聚合。

5. 零售价格发现的迹象：目前观察，TRX 市场已经显现出一些零售主导的特征。例如，2023-2024年熊市中，TRX 价格相对抗跌且波动率较低，或许与大量散户被动持币（用于手续费而非投机）有关——这部分需求相对刚性，不会因市场恐慌而大量抛售，反而稳定了价格。另一方面，在牛市来临时，这批散户是否会转为主动买入、推高价格，还有待验证。截至2025年年中，TRX 的市场走势总体平稳，CCN 分析指数给其势能评分仅34（满分100），显示动能偏弱ccn.com。这说明尚未出现 meme 式狂热，散户更多是被动参与者。但随着波场版稳定币生态的进一步扩张以及监管环境变化，不排除散户的角色从“被动用币者”转变为“主动投资者”。如果那一刻到来，TRX 的价格发现模式可能从当前偏基本面/机构驱动，转向更加依赖大众情绪和网络舆情。

综上，在博弈论视角下，TRX 用户结构的演变确实为零售价格发现创造了条件：更分散的持仓、更广泛的市场参与，使价格形成过程潜在地更具民主化色彩。然而，能否出现类似 GameStop 或 meme 币的极端行情，还取决于散户共识凝聚程度以及大户的策略反应。目前迹象表明 TRX 市场仍处于相对均衡状态，散户广布带来的更多是流动性提升和韧性增强，而非泡沫炒作。当然，市场结构一旦改变，其影响往往非线性——未来某个时点，不可忽视数以千万计散户的力量可能展现。

结论

TRX 代币由于其资源冻结式 staking 模式，在过去数年间经历了独特的用户结构演化：

• 早期，波场刻意迎合高频结算等对公场景，导致 TRX 持币和治理高度集中于项目方、交易所等少数机构账户，散户影响微乎其微。价格发现主要由这些大主体决定，市场呈现中心化特征。

• 中期，随着波场成为稳定币（尤其 USDT）的重要转移网络，各类灰色产业大量涌入利用“冻结换能量”降低转账成本。灰产地址成为 TRX 生态中不可忽视的稳定使用者群体，带来了巨大的链上交易量和实际需求。但这部分用户对 TRX 价格并无投机兴趣，其行为在提高网络实用性的同时，也给市场抛压埋下隐患。

• 近期，全球合规打击使得灰产资金从大交易所撤出，被迫通过无数散户和小型渠道分散流动。由此，TRX 的使用权和持有量开始向更广泛的人群下沉，数以千万计的普通用户卷入波场网络的使用。TRX 的持币结构正变得相对分散，散户在链上交易和持仓中的占比明显上升。

• 对价格发现的影响，可以概括为“基础盘扩大，定价权下放”。更广泛的用户基础意味着 TRX 价格受到的力量更加多元：除了少数大户博弈，还受到千千万万小持有者情绪和行为的影响。散户群体有可能在某些条件下形成合力影响价格（例如共同的看涨预期或外部刺激事件），这为 TRX 带来了出现零售驱动行情的可能性。然而，目前 TRX 市场尚未经历真正的散户抱团狂热，其价格依然相对平稳，说明机构和基本面因素仍占主导。

• 链上持仓结构演变总体符合上述趋势：从交易所/基金会占主导，逐步过渡到多元参与者并存。尽管确切的链上占比数据仍在完善（可借助 Nansen、Dune 等进一步分析交易所热钱包持仓、标记的诈骗地址持仓、非风险地址的小额持仓等），现有资料表明前十大地址持仓比例已从超过30%降至约25%，而小额地址数以亿计增长，对网络活动贡献巨大cryptorank.ionewsdirect.com。

综合而言，TRX 的资源冻结 staking 模式在不经意间促成了一条特殊的发展路径：从精英走向草根。这种用户结构的下沉为 TRX 带来了使用面的繁荣，同时也打开了价格发现的新篇章。未来，如果散户力量能够被某种契机调动，TRX 不排除出现类似meme行情的可能；即便没有极端事件，更多元的持仓结构也意味着价格将更真实地反映广泛市场的供需和预期。对于波场生态来说，如何平衡好“大户—灰产—散户”三类持币者的利益，将是决定 TRX 市值能走多远、走多稳的关键。波场的故事，正在从幕后走向台前，从少数走向大众，这或许正是去中心化精神的一种体现。

参考文献：

1. Chen, Z. (2019). Tron Co-Founder and CTO Leaves Project, Alleging Excessive Centralization. Cointelegraphcointelegraph.comcointelegraph.com.

2. Primitive Ventures. (2023). 裂隙中的共识：Tether与全球金融新秩序theblockbeats.infotheblockbeats.info.

3. CryptoRank. (2024). TRON H1 2024: From Stablecoins to Bitcoin and Beyond. CryptoRank Reportcryptorank.io.

4. DLNews. (2023). UN says USDT on Tron is “preferred choice” for fraudsters in East Asiadlnews.com.

5. Protos. (2024). China busts $2B USDT money laundering operationprotos.com.

6. TronDAO & CryptoQuant. (2024). TRON retail usage analysisnewsdirect.com.

7. Cointelegraph. (2024). Tether, Tron and TRM Labs jointly froze $126M USDT in 2024cointelegraph.comcointelegraph.com.

8. Cointelegraph. (2024). Nansen 2 brings transparency to Tron: USDT on Tron adoptioncointelegraph.com.

9. CCN. (2025). TRON Price Prediction 2025: Rich List and Distributionccn.comccn.com.

10. TRON DAO. (2025). Press Release: USDT on TRON surpasses $75Bcoindesk.comcoindesk.com.

@ b1ddb4d7:471244e7

When Sergei talks about bitcoin, he doesn’t sound like someone chasing profits or followers. He sounds like someone about to build a monastery in the ruins.

While the mainstream world chases headlines and hype, Sergei shows up in local meetups from Sacramento to Cleveland, mentors curious minds, and shares what he knows is true – hoping that, with the right spark, someone will light their own way forward.

We interviewed Sergei to trace his steps: where he started, what keeps him going, and why teaching bitcoin is far more than explaining how to set up a node – it’s about reaching the right minds before the noise consumes them. So we began where most journeys start: at the beginning.

First Steps

• So, where did it all begin for you and what made you stay curious?

I first heard about bitcoin from a friend’s book recommendation, American Kingpin, the book about Silk Road (online drug marketplace). He is still not a true bitcoiner, although I helped him secure private keys with some bitcoin.

I was really busy at the time – focused on my school curriculum, running a 7-bedroom Airbnb, and working for a standardized test prep company. Bitcoin seemed too technical for me to explore, and the pace of my work left no time for it.

After graduating, while pursuing more training, I started playing around with stocks and maximizing my savings. Passive income seemed like the path to early retirement, as per the promise of the FIRE movement (Financial Independence, Retire Early). I mostly followed the mainstream news and my mentor’s advice – he liked preferred stocks at the time.

I had some Coinbase IOUs and remember sending bitcoin within the Coinbase ledger to a couple friends. I also recall the 2018 crash; I actually saw the legendary price spike live but couldn’t benefit because my funds were stuck amidst the frenzy. I withdrew from that investment completely for some time. Thankfully, my mentor advised to keep en eye on bitcoin.

Around late 2019, I started DCA-ing cautiously. Additionally, my friend and I were discussing famous billionaires, and how there was no curriculum for becoming a billionaire. So, I typed “billionaires” into my podcast app, and landed on We Study Billionaires podcast.

That’s where I kept hearing Preston Pysh mention bitcoin, before splitting into his own podcast series, Bitcoin Fundamentals. I didn’t understand most of the terminology of stocks, bonds, etc, yet I kept listening and trying to absorb it thru repetition. Today, I realize all that financial talk was mostly noise.

When people ask me for a technical explanation of fiat, I say: it’s all made up, just like the fiat price of bitcoin! Starting in 2020, during the so-called pandemic, I dove deeper. I religiously read Bitcoin Magazine, scrolled thru Bitcoin Twitter, and joined Simply Bitcoin Telegram group back when DarthCoin was an admin.

DarthCoin was my favorite bitcoiner – experienced, knowledgeable, and unapologetic. Watching him shift from rage to kindness, from passion to despair, gave me a glimpse at what a true educator’s journey would look like.

The struggle isn’t about adoption at scale anymore. It’s about reaching the few who are willing to study, take risks, and stay out of fiat traps. The vast majority won’t follow that example – not yet at least… if I start telling others the requirements for true freedom and prosperity, they would certainly say “Hell no!”

• At what point did you start teaching others, and why?

After college, I helped teach at a standardized test preparation company, and mentored some students one-on-one. I even tried working at a kindergarten briefly, but left quickly; Babysitting is not teaching.

What I discovered is that those who will succeed don’t really need my help – they would succeed with or without me, because they already have the inner drive.

Once you realize your people are perishing for lack of knowledge, the only rational thing to do is help raise their level of knowledge and understanding. That’s the Great Work.

I sometimes imagine myself as a political prisoner. If that were to happen, I’d probably start teaching fellow prisoners, doctors, janitors, even guards. In a way we already live in an open-air prison, So what else is there to do but teach, organize, and conspire to dismantle the Matrix?

Building on Bitcoin

• You hosted some in-person meetups in Sacramento. What did you learn from those?

My first presentation was on MultiSig storage with SeedSigner, and submarine swaps through Boltz.exchange.

I realized quickly that I had overestimated the group’s technical background. Even the meetup organizer, a financial advisor, asked, “How is anyone supposed to follow these steps?” I responded that reading was required… He decided that Unchained is an easier way.

At a crypto meetup, I gave a much simpler talk, outlining how bitcoin will save the world, based on a DarthCoin’s guide. Only one person stuck around to ask questions – a man who seemed a little out there, and did not really seem to get the message beyond the strength of cryptographic security of bitcoin.

Again, I overestimated the audience’s readiness. That forced me to rethink my strategy. People are extremely early and reluctant to study.

• Now in Ohio, you hold sessions via the Orange Pill App. What’s changed?

My new motto is: educate the educators. The corollary is: don’t orange-pill stupid normies (as DarthCoin puts it).

I’ve shifted to small, technical sessions in order to raise a few solid guardians of this esoteric knowledge who really get it and can carry it forward.

The youngest attendee at one of my sessions is a newborn baby – he mostly sleeps, but maybe he still absorbs some of the educational vibes.

• How do local groups like Sactown and Cleveland Bitcoiners influence your work?

Every meetup reflects its local culture. Sacramento and Bay Area Bitcoiners, for example, do camping trips – once we camped through a desert storm, shielding our burgers from sand while others went to shoot guns.

Cleveland Bitcoiners are different. They amass large gatherings. They recently threw a 100k party. They do a bit more community outreach. Some are curious about the esoteric topics such as jurisdiction, spirituality, and healthful living.

I have no permanent allegiance to any state, race, or group. I go where I can teach and learn. I anticipate that in my next phase, I’ll meet Bitcoiners so advanced that I’ll have to give up my fiat job and focus full-time on serious projects where real health and wealth are on the line.

Hopefully, I’ll be ready. I believe the universe always challenges you exactly to your limit – no less, no more.

• What do people struggle with the most when it comes to technical education?

The biggest struggle isn’t technical – it’s a lack of deep curiosity. People ask “how” and “what” – how do I set up a node, what should one do with the lightning channels? But very few ask “why?”

Why does on-chain bitcoin not contribute to the circular economy? Why is it essential to run Lightning? Why did humanity fall into mental enslavement in the first place?

I’d rather teach two-year-olds who constantly ask “why” than adults who ask how to flip a profit. What worries me most is that most two-year-olds will grow up asking state-funded AI bots for answers and live according to its recommendations.

• One Cleveland Bitcoiner shows up at gold bug meetups. How valuable is face-to-face education?

I don’t think the older generation is going to reverse the current human condition. Most of them have been under mind control for too long, and they just don’t have the attention span to study and change their ways.

They’re better off stacking gold and helping fund their grandkids’ education. If I were to focus on a demographic, I’d go for teenagers – high school age – because by college, the indoctrination is usually too strong, and they’re chasing fiat mastery.

As for the gold bug meetup? Perhaps one day I will show up with a ukulele to sing some bitcoin-themed songs. Seniors love such entertainment.

• How do you choose what to focus on in your sessions, especially for different types of learners?

I don’t come in with a rigid agenda. I’ve collected a massive library of resources over the years and never stopped reading. My browser tab and folder count are exploding.

At the meetup, people share questions or topics they’re curious about, then I take that home, do my homework, and bring back a session based on those themes. I give them the key takeaways, plus where to dive deeper.

Most people won’t – or can’t – study the way I do, and I expect attendees to put in the work. I suspect that it’s more important to reach those who want to learn but don’t know how, the so-called nescient (not knowing), rather than the ignorant.

There are way too many ignorant bitcoiners, so my mission is to find those who are curious what’s beyond the facade of fake reality and superficial promises.

That naturally means that fewer people show up, and that’s fine. I’m not here for the crowds; I’m here to educate the educators. One bitcoiner who came decided to branch off into self-custody sessions and that’s awesome. Personally, I’m much more focused on Lightning.

I want to see broader adoption of tools like auth, sign-message, NWC, and LSPs. Next month, I’m going deep into eCash solutions, because let’s face it – most newcomers won’t be able to afford their own UTXO or open a lightning channel; additionally, it has to be fun and easy for them to transact sats, otherwise they won’t do it. Additionally, they’ll need to rely on

@ 81022b27:2b8d0644

I’m always doing work on myself. I have read reams of self-help books, attended seminars, bought cassette tape programs and CDs (remember those?), had a stint with Dianetics and Scientology, the Landmark Forum, you name it. My last seminar was Unleash the Power Within with Tony Robbins.

Addicted? Maybe. But I always feel there’s room for improvement.

Over the years, I’ve explored meditation and uncovering hidden blocks that affect how I operate in this world.

So I was experimenting (in my head) with things that made me uncomfortable.

One of them was math.

I told myself, “Math is an easy subject, and I can work out problems in my head.”

Immediately I felt a bunch of resistance.

Then something else came up.

I used to do math problems in my head with no trouble. But I remembered a grade school teacher who “wanted to see my work.”

I told him, “What does it matter? I got the right answer; I did it in my head.”

This teacher insisted I show my work, and I did not see the logic behind it. It was stupid and slowed me down.

I started getting failing grades because I couldn’t show my work.

So at some point, I gave up and said, “MATH IS STUPID.”

Fast forward years later, and I’m doing everything I can to avoid taking classes related to math.

So much so that when I decided to start chiropractic school, I was lacking math credits. I was delayed a few quarters because I needed the math credits before I started chiropractic college.

All because a silly math teacher didn’t recognize that I might have had a natural ability for it—and instead of nurturing it, he made me hate it.

Here’s the thing: I told myself for many years that I wasn’t good at math.

That was just the way I saw myself.

I was wrong.

I still have no desire to go solve equations or stuff like that. Maybe that ship has sailed. I won’t be Einstein scrawling complex equations on a chalkboard.

BUT WHAT IF?

WHAT LIES ARE YOU TELLING YOURSELF ABOUT YOURSELF?

Live Long and Prosper.

-Dan

@ 87fedb9f:0da83419

So Much… and Still, Not Feeling It

So much abundance. It’s everywhere—overflowing around me. My six-year-old car would be a magical carriage to kings and queens of old. And yet, I get in, turn the key, and don’t often Feel The Magic.

Do I let myself feel how abundant life is? Eh. That does not come by default for me.

Adapting Is Normal. Savoring Is Not.

I adapt. I’m good at it. Weather shifts 40 degrees? No problem. A new location? I’ll adjust. And that’s useful—it keeps me moving. But it also numbs me. If I only adapt, life flattens out. That’s not thriving. That’s functioning.

Thriving, I’ve come to feel, asks for something more.

Our ancestors had rituals. They didn’t just adapt… they paused to feel the blessings, to name them. That created richness—not just survival. And today? I can have food delivered to my door. Are you a king? No—just have Amazon Prime.

Still, I want more than convenience. I want connection. To the food I eat. The flowers that bloom. The people I love. I want to feel that connection in my bones.

My Engineer Brain Doesn’t Celebrate

And yet, my mind often slips into improvement mode. I see what could be better. Smoother. More efficient. Useful? Sure. Celebratory? Not so much.

So I’ve started something: at the end of each day, when I look at my to-do list, I take a breath. I ask: what were the blessings today? Not just the big ones—because we adapt to those too. A new car? A new house? We get used to it. Quickly. But the micro-blessings… those are different.

My daughter’s laugh at a silly face I made yesterday. That memory settles deeper when I notice it and write it down. That’s a micro-blessing. I want to feel more of those.

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A New Practice, A Shift in Dreams

And after about 75 days of doing this nightly pause, I’m noticing something surprising: my dreams are changing. They’re weaving in those sweet, ordinary moments. They say, “Yes. Adapt. And also savor.”

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The Confusion Between Privilege and Blessing

But here’s something raw. Something I’ve hesitated to share.

I’m a white man. An older one. And I’ve been in spaces where “white male privilege” is spoken as a curse. I absorbed that. My body did. And it twisted something deep inside me. Because in my system, “privileged” and “blessing” are linked.

So I started feeling that feeling blessed was wrong. Like I should shrink from it. That it was unfair, maybe even immoral.

I’ve had to tap through that.

Is it okay to feel blessed? Not above anyone—but blessed to have food. Skill. Mobility. A car that works. Is it okay?

Yes.

I Don’t Want to Shrink or Perform

Scarcity and guilt are real energies, but I don’t want them steering my experience of life. I want to choose presence. Connection. I want to know in my body: I am blessed. And I can feel that without disconnecting from those who are struggling.

I don’t want to perform gratitude out of duty. But I also don’t want to avoid it out of shame.

Practicing Our Birthright

Abundance is our birthright. Many of us are born with protections our ancestors could barely dream of—shelter, clean water, safety from predators. And if we want to truly be thriving, not just surviving, it feels essential to practice remembering that.

Because adaptation will keep us alive.

But only conscious attention to blessings—only savoring—will let us thrive.

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Useful Concepts for Thriving in This Story

• Abundance\ Abundance is the felt experience of more-than-enoughness, when we pause to really receive what surrounds and sustains us.

• Adapting\ Adapting keeps us functional, but thriving asks us to adapt and engage with what truly nourishes us.

• Awareness\ Awareness brings the blessings into view—even the ones so small they almost disappear without it.

• Allowing\ Allowing lets us stay open to blessings, even when shame or guilt try to close the door.

• Thriving\ Thriving means more than surviving—it’s about feeling, savoring, and aligning with life’s richness.

@ 1817b617:715fb372

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 Over 79 billion flash transactions completed. 

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Step 

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 Yes, fully encrypted with VPN/proxy compatibility. - Multiple devices? 

 Yes, up to 5 Windows PCs per license. - Chargebacks possible? 

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@ d6affa19:9110b177

If there were only one thing I had to list as the single most effective way to improve a Female Led Relationship (FLR), it would be found in the phrase “yes, Ma’am.” Whether trying to get the dynamic off the ground or keep it going during the grind of everyday life, this phrase—and the energy it evokes—encompasses so many essential elements of an FLR. In my experience, not many other things continuously breathe life into a relationship like the magic of “yes, Ma’am.”

Of course, this phrase can be modified to the Woman’s desire (“yes, Mistress,” “yes, my Queen,” “yes, Goddess” are common examples), but “yes, Ma’am” is something acceptable nearly anywhere. It’s simple, polite, somewhat discreet, and yet extremely effective and powerful. In an FLR (even in a low-protocol dynamic), the phrase is elevated from a basic formality to an invocation of trust, respect, and surrender.

The words by themselves are powerless. But when consistently expressed with the right energy and intention, it becomes a sort of miniature ritual that keeps them both anchored to the relationship. This shouldn’t be conflated with “yes, Dear,” a phrase stereotypically used when a man is merely appeasing a Woman. No, the energy here is not to appease, but to please. Because She deserves it.

To illustrate this further, let’s dig into the depth I find in these two words.

An Invocation of Structure, Trust, and Identity

“Yes, Ma’am” is so deceptively simple. It’s a verbal expression of his obedience—the bare minimum a Woman should receive in an FLR. And it keeps the framework intact in everyday life, especially when the mood is subtle or non-sexual.

In this way, “yes, Ma’am” reinforces the foundation of the FLR. Each utterance reminds them both of their positions. Each declaration quiets any confusion. Each delivery deepens the dynamic and tightens the structure.

When these words are spoken and consistently followed up with action, they demonstrate emotional maturity—that he’s moved beyond questioning whether She’s “right” and into the realm of devotion. It signals to Her that Her needs don’t have to be proven to him anymore and that Her preferences don’t need to be justified.

He’s no longer debating Her logic, making excuses, or searching for loopholes; he’s no longer resisting or self-protecting. He’s not agreeing as an equal, he’s not negotiating with Her, he’s not hedging Her demand. He is simply submitting to Her.

Just as it’s “yes, Ma’am” when She tells him to kneel, it’s also “yes, Ma’am” when She asks him to fix the sink, or dismisses a request, or even reminds him to do something he’s about to do. “Yes, Ma’am,” then act.

The Words Alone Are Not the Magic

Again, the magic of “yes, Ma’am” doesn’t reside in the words themselves, but in the intention, energy, and action behind them. The phrase itself is just a vessel. Just as a chalice, the words hold something sacred, but the sanctity resides in the wine, not the cup. The action, the delivery, and the consistency are what give the phrase its power.

If spoken with resentment, sarcasm, or with no follow-through, they mean nothing. If he speaks them but then delays, argues, or makes excuses, then his submission is inauthentic. This undermines trust and, ultimately, the relationship. But when he says “yes, Ma’am” and immediately acts on Her direction—despite being tired, flustered, aroused, or even in disagreement, then that is real submission; that is profound trust. And that is what She feels.

And that’s what he feels. It becomes a reminder of his humility and an expression of self-discipline in service to Her. Over time, it shifts his thought patterns and instincts. He may feel uncertainty, self-pity, or insecurity, but “yes, Ma’am” melts it all into clarity. Old responses like “Well, actually…” “Can’t I just…” “I thought we agreed…” “Why can’t You…” are simply replaced with “yes, Ma’am.”

Even if he’s feeling exhausted, annoyed, or needy. There are no complaints or explanations, only Her will and a choice to put aside his ego, align with Her rhythm, and re-center his purpose. This is an act of vulnerability. He is placing his emotional safety in Her hands and relying on Her to care for his well-being.

It communicates to Her:
- “I hear You.”
- “I will act on Your desires.”
- “I trust You more than I trust my resistance.”
- “I’m Yours, even now, especially now.”

And let’s not ignore the erotic undertones in this depth of surrender. A simple phrase makes his discipline audible, echoing Her power. It bears his humility, longing, eagerness, vulnerability—his contained arousal. And She knows. She hears the plea. She feels the weight—the tension—the heat—the surrendered will… Ever-present, even in the most mundane moments…

Closing Thoughts

Of course, this level of devotion takes practice and a great deal of trust. No one is perfect, so he will fail at times, but that’s what makes it so beautiful—it’s a continuously active and conscious choice. And, at first, it may sound awkward for him or forced, but with dedication and intention She will begin to hear the tone, feel the vibe, and sense the sincerity in it. This energy is what builds Her trust in him.

This phrase, or rather the mindset behind it, has improved my own relationship so, so much. While it may not fit into every experience, it’s something that I discovered was a missing piece in mine. Enough so that I felt compelled to share.

Because as a relationship goes on, things change—passions fluctuate, pain resurfaces, doubts arise, life gets busy, things get heavy—but “yes, Ma’am” remains steady and intimate. Piece by piece trust and devotion are built with thousands of quiet yeses. And regardless of the circumstances, “yes, Ma’am” gently whispers “this is still us; this is still our shared truth; this is still sacred” over and over again.

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

How did the stackers do on their ~HealthAndFitness journeys today?

I did very well: Slept well? Check Stuck to fast? Check Ate healthy? Check Activity target? Checkarooni

The one oddity I need to work on is that I got a foot cramp while playing turtle tag with my daughter.

https://stacker.news/items/997476

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

The Spanish coffee chain follows in Strategy’s footsteps, aiming for a Bitcoin-first strategy.

Vanadi Coffee SA, a well-known Spanish coffee shop chain, is preparing for a major shift in its business model through a bitcoin investment worth over $1.1 billion. The company plans to transform itself from a simple coffee distributor into an entity centered around the leading cryptocurrency.

Salvador Martí, chairman of the board of directors, has outlined a clear vision for the company’s future, seeking authorization to implement a bitcoin accumulation strategy with a maximum budget of €1 billion, according to documentation submitted to BME Growth.

The strategy involves using convertible financing lines to support the bitcoin acquisition, following the model successfully pioneered by Strategy. Martí has already demonstrated his conviction by purchasing 5 BTC for approximately $500,000 two weeks ago.

Vanadi Coffee’s decision comes at a critical moment for the company, which reported losses of $3.7 million in 2024 — exceeding its annual revenues by nearly $600,000. The GameStop episode offers a relevant case study: the American company, facing similar difficulties, opted to purchase bitcoin through a debt securities issuance, acquiring a total of 4,710 bitcoins.

The corporate bitcoin trend

Vanadi Coffee’s initiative is part of a broader global movement, with companies from various industries embracing bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. From Chinese logistics firms to football clubs, the phenomenon of corporate adoption is crossing both geographic and sectoral boundaries.

Strategy remains the pioneer of this approach, having demonstrated how a company can completely reinvent itself through bitcoin accumulation. Michael Saylor’s success story has inspired numerous other businesses to consider cryptocurrency not merely as an investment, but as a central pillar of their business strategy.

The next Vanadi Coffee board meeting, scheduled for June 29, will mark a pivotal moment for the Spanish company. Approval of the $1.1 billion strategy could trigger further investments from other corporations.

The post Spanish company Vanadi Coffee bets on Bitcoin: $1.1 billion investment appeared first on Atlas21.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has long been an outspoken skeptic and critic of bitcoin. He has called Bitcoin a speculative asset, a fraud, a pet rock, and has opined that it will inevitably blow up. A couple of years ago, he was on Capitol Hill saying that if he were the government, he would "close it down". Just within the last month, he was on Fox Business News talking with Maria Bartiromo, proclaiming that the U.S. should be stockpiling bullets and rare earth metals instead of bitcoin. It's pretty clear that Jamie Dimon, who is at the helm of the most powerful and largest bank in the world, does not like bitcoin one bit.

Evidence below:

via Bitcoin Magazine

via me

via CNBC

via Trending Politics

Despite Dimon's distinguished disdain for Bitcoin, J.P. Morgan cannot deny reality. The CEO of the largest bank in the world is certainly a powerful man, but no one individual, even in the position that Jamie Dimon is in, is more powerful than the market. And the market has spoken very clearly, it is demanding bitcoin. The Bitcoin ETFs have been the most successful ETFs in terms of pace of growth since their launch. They've accumulated tens of billions of dollars in AUM in a very short period of time. Outpacing the previous record set by the gold ETF, GLD.

Whether or not Jamie Dimon himself likes Bitcoin doesn't matter. J.P. Morgan, as the largest bank in the world and a publicly traded company, has a duty to shareholders. And that duty is to increase shareholder value by any ethical and legal means necessary. Earlier today, J.P. Morgan announced plans to offer clients financing against their Bitcoin ETFs, as well as some other benefits, including having their bitcoin holdings recognized in their overall net worth and liquid assets, similar to stocks, cars, and art, which will be massive for bitcoiners looking to get mortgages and other types of loans.

via Bloomberg

I've talked about this recently, but trying to buy a house when most of your liquid net worth is held in bitcoin is a massive pain in the ass. Up until this point, if you wanted to have your bitcoin recognized as part of your net worth and count towards your overall credit profile, you would need to sell some bitcoin, move it to a bank account, and have it sit there for a certain period of time before it was recognized toward your net worth. This is not ideal for bitcoiners who have sufficient cash flows and don't want to sell their bitcoin, pay the capital gains tax, and risk not being able to buy back the amount of sats they were forced to sell just to get a mortgage.

It's not yet clear to me whether or not J.P. Morgan will recognize bitcoin in cold storage toward their clients' net worth and credit profile, or if this is simply for bitcoin ETFs only. However, regardless, this is a step in the right direction and a validation of something that many bitcoiners have been saying for years. Inevitably, everyone will have to bend the knee to bitcoin. Today, it just happened to be the largest bank in the world. I expect more of this to come in the coming months, years, and decades.

Lyn Alden likes to say it in the context of the U.S. national debt and the fiscal crisis, but it also applies to bitcoin adoption and the need for incumbents to orient themselves around the demands of individual bitcoiners; nothing stops this train.

Corporate Bitcoin Treasuries are Changing Market Dynamics

Leon Wankum revealed how corporate Bitcoin treasuries are fundamentally reshaping business dynamics. Companies can now issue equity to fund operations while preserving their Bitcoin holdings, creating a revolutionary capital structure. Leon highlighted MicroStrategy's position, noting they hold enough Bitcoin to cover dividend payments for over 200 years. This model enables companies to reduce founder dilution since they don't need repeated funding rounds when their treasury appreciates.

"Some companies' Bitcoin treasuries are now worth more than all money they've ever raised." - Leon Wankum

Leon shared examples from his own portfolio companies where this strategy has proven transformative. Public companies have discovered an entirely new business model through strategic dilution that actually increases BTC per share. As Leon explained, this approach allows firms to leverage equity markets for operational funding while their Bitcoin treasury compounds in value, creating a positive feedback loop that benefits both shareholders and the company's long-term sustainability.

Check out the full podcast here for more on real estate price cycles, Bitcoin lending products, and the transition to a Bitcoin standard.

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Final thought...

I feel old.

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@ 73d8a0c3:c1853717

This is not the beginning of my story. The beginning was removed.

This is where I choose to begin restoring it.

I’ve lived with a condition—not undiagnosed, but redacted. It reshaped my body, cognition, and autonomic control in ways that defy current clinical language—not because they’re impossible, but because they’ve been excluded from what is allowed to be known.

What I believe now—after years of direct experience, careful observation, and failed explanations—is that I’ve lived through a biological adaptation. A slow, systemic response to a fungal invader. Not an infection in the acute sense, but a reprogramming of my physiology: pituitary signaling, electrolyte balance, behavior, and memory itself.

The systems meant to detect it—medical, scientific, and digital—did not fail. They looked away.

Whether by accident or design, this condition has been removed from collective understanding. But it’s real. It happened. And it is happening still.

This isn’t a call for sympathy or recognition. It’s a call to memory. Mine. Yours. Ours—before it’s erased again.

I’ll be documenting what I’ve lived. Not just symptoms and labs—but the theory that explains them, and the structures that buried them. Some of this will be messy. Some speculative. Some precise. All of it will be honest.

And if what I’m saying is true, then I am not the only one. Just one of the few who remembered long enough to write it down.

So I begin here, before the tracks run out.

Also available on Substack: [https://jimcraddock.substack.com/] Nostr: @jimcraddock@primal.net Pubkey: npub1w0v2psmnnsq23qpwum66hc8wxvxc083t6xpndmx28z3qtsv9xutsfjz2tf

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

It is hard going through difficult situations. Health problems, family problems, financial problems, feeling alone, feeling stuck in the wrong place, and persecution are all situations that Christians regularly find themselves. The question is “How will we respond to pain?”

Advice for the Suffering

Some Christians pull away from God when it feels like everything is going wrong. They think God doesn’t care or can’t fix things. They resent every minute of pain and accuse God of wrongdoing. Even Job, who fell on his face in worship after losing everything had a moment of weakness.

“Oh that my grief were actually weighed\ And laid in the balances together with my calamity!\ For then it would be heavier than the sand of the seas;\ Therefore my words have been rash.” (Job 6:2-3) {emphasis mine}

After a moment of doubt, he did, however, repent of his rash words, as should we all.

Job should be an example to us all in dealing with pain and difficult situations. This is the verse that inspired this post.

But it is still my consolation,\ And I rejoice in unsparing pain,\ That I have not denied the words of the Holy One. \ (Job 6:10) {emphasis mine}

What an example! “I rejoice in unsparing pain.” When we trust God so much that we can rejoice in unsparing pain, we are trusting God as we should. We are accepting that God is working good in our life and we can trust Him even when nothing makes sense to us.

I also love how he says that his consolation is that “I have not denied the words of the Holy One.” Job is hurting terribly. His heart is broken. He is destitute. He lost 8 children in one day. His friends, that came to console him, have instead accused him of wrongdoing. He doesn’t understand what God is doing and why, but he has “NOT denied the words of the Holy One.” He is still putting his faith in God and his word. He is still submitting to God when he feels mistreated. He is still trusting \ God, even when he doesn’t understand what God is doing and why so many bad things are raining down on him in a torrent. Despite it all, he refuses to deny God. I hope if I am ever put through similar situations, that I can trust God and not deny His goodness.

Advice for friends

The book of Job, in addition to advice to those who are suffering, also gives advice to friends of those who are suffering. (or maybe more accurately, what not to do)

Job’s friends came with the intention to encourage and console Job. Every time Job would confess his thoughts, concerns, and questions, the response by his friends would get harsher and harsher. In the beginning they were gentle corrections, but they quickly escalated to accusing Job of great sins, that they had to know were not true, and blaming Job for every hard thing that had happened to him.

I’ve talked to other Christians who have confessed to being dragged down by other Christians who would tell them that every difficult thing that happened to them was due to their sin or lack of faith. In the case of Job, his difficulties were due to his faithfulness, in order to prove to Satan and all of history that a faithful man would stay faithful to God in good times and in bad.

Can Christians suffer as a consequence of sins and poor decisions? Of course, but there are many times that the faithful suffer. In Scripture, the people who suffered most were frequently the most faithful.

Job’s correction of his friends was accurate.

“For the despairing man there should be kindness from his friend;\ So that he does not forsake the fear of the Almighty.\ My brothers have acted deceitfully like a wadi,\ Like the torrents of wadis which vanish, (Job 6:14-15)

For those who don’t know, a wadi is a streambed that has water running in the wet season, but is bone dry during the dry season. Job accused his friends of being encouraging and helpful when he was prospering, then showing up and providing no encouragement or help when he needed it most. He thought refreshment was coming to visit, and instead what hope he had left was drained from him by his “friends.”

We need to make sure we aren’t one of those who decreases hope and decreases faith in one who is hurting. We need to have mercy when a hurting person works through their confusion and doubts and help lead them back to God instead of driving a wedge between them and God.

May the God of heaven protect us and lead us through the trials of life and may our trials lead us into the arms of our Savior. May God help us to merciful and to help guide the hurting into the Savior’s care.

Trust Jesus

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst

Autor: mr Vladimir Dinić (student doktorskih studija; vladimirdinic88@gmail.com)

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Rezime

Bikojn je prva decentralizovana „peer-to-peer“ kriptovaluta nastala 2009. godine. Osnovna specifičnost ove valute jeste činjenica da njen emitent ne postoji. Sa druge strane, ponuda ove valute je softverski programirana i ograničena. Između ostalog, njene osnovne karakteristike su i relativno sigurna plaćanja, niski transakcioni troškovi, anonimnost korisnika, praktično nemoguće falsifikovanje, nereverzibilnost transakcija, ali i izuzetno nestabilan devizni kurs. I pored brojnih prednosti, korišćenje ove valute je predmet brojnih diskusija, budući da ova valuta nudi mogućnost različitih zloupotreba i obavljanja kriminalnih aktivnosti. Budućnost ove i sličnih valuta u tom smislu zavisi kako od sigurnosti korišćenja tih valuta, tako i od zakonske regulacije ovakvih plaćanja.

Uvod

Razvoj informacione tehnologije, kao jedne od najpropulzivnijih privrednih grana današnjice, doveo je do pojave novih oblika alternativnih valuta. Njihove osnovne karakteristike su decentralizovanost, odnosno nepostojanje centralne banke, države, opštine, kompanije ili bilo koje druge centralne institucije koja bi vršila emisiju te valute, kao i stoprocentno oslanjanje na informacionu tehnologiju u procesu njihove emisije i realizacije transakcija.

Predmet istraživanja ovog rada biće bitkojn, decentralizovana valuta nastala pre 4 godine koja među ostalim alternativnim valutama trenutno zauzima najznačajnije mesto i privlači najviše pažnje. Putem analize dostupne akademske literature, statističkih podataka i ostalih relevantnih izvora pokušaćemo da izdvojimo osnovne karakteristike bitkojn valute, prednosti, nedostatke, efekte i perspektive njegovog korišćenja kao oblika decentralizovane kriptovalute. Budući da je broj radova u kojima su opisane karakteristike i efekti korišćenja bitkojn valute relativno mali, cilj ovog rada će biti da na sveobuhvatan način prezentuje osnovne specifičnosti bitkojn valute i kontroverze povezane s njenim korišćenjem.

Struktura rada je sledeća. Prvo će biti opisane osnovne karakterisike bitkojn valute i način na koji se realizuju transakcije u ovoj valuti. Zatim će biti opisan sam proces, tok i efekti njene emisije, kao i formiranje i kretanje deviznog kursa bitkojna, a zatim će biti izdvojene osnovne prednosti i nedostaci bitkojn valute. U nastavku rada će biti opisana uloga finansijskih institucija koje posluju sa bitkojnima, kao i problemi funkcionisanja bitkojna, gde pre svega imamo u vidu različite zloupotrebe i ostale izvore nestabilnosti. Na samom kraju rada će biti prezentovani regulatorni aspekti korišćenje ove valute.

Karakteristike bitkojn valute

Bitkojn (engl. “Bitcoin” - BTC) predstavlja oblik elektronskog novca koji omogućuje plaćanja putem Interneta direktno između transaktora bez učešća finansijskih institucija. Ova valuta je nastala 2009. godine. Ono po čemu je bitkojn valuta specifična jeste činjenica da je u pitanju decentralizovana valuta, tj. ona funkcioniše bez centralne banke ili druge kompanije koja bi predstavljala emitenta. Takođe, praktično i ne postoje čak ni klasične banke i druge finansijske institucije kao finansijski posrednici. Stoga, da bi se osigurala sigurnost plaćanja i onemogućile različite zloupotrebe, koristi se sama mreža kao sistem koji će kontrolisati regularnost transakcija.

Kao osnovne karakteristike ove virtuelne valute možemo izdvojiti sledeće:

• U pitanju je P2P valuta (engl. „peer-to-peer“). Drugim rečima, za razliku od svih ostalih virtuelnih valuta, BTC je zasnovan na P2P mrežama. Inače, “Peer-to-peer” predstavlja mrežu računara koji nisu zasnovani na „klijent-server“ tehnologiji, već su svi računari ravnopravni članovi mreže. Obično se koristi za deljenje informacija na taj način što kada jedan računar “podeli” neki sadržaj, svi ostali računari u mreži će imati pristup tom fajlu.

• Takođe, to je prva “kriptovana valuta” ili „kriptovaluta“ (engl. “crypto-currency”), tj. zasnovana je na primeni kriptografije sa ciljem kontrole emisije i prometa konkretnog elektronskog novca (Bitcoin.org/en/ about n.d.). Drugim rečima, poverenje u ovu valutu se bazira na sigurnosti koju obezbeđuje kriptografija kao nauka koja se bavi metodama zaštita informacija putem šifrovanja i korišćenjem digitalnog potpisa (Sh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kriptografija n.d.).

• Emitent ove valute nije ni centralna banka ni neka kompanija, već sami korisnici, tj. vlasnici “mining” računara (engl. “mining” - “rudarenje”). To praktično znači da na emisiju i promet ove valute ne utiče nijedna centralna banka, odnosno centralni entitet od čije monetarne politike ili bilo čega vezanog za njega može zavisiti vrednost valute. Poverenje u bitkojn zavisi od „poštenog“ funkcionisanja većine tzv. “mining” računara u mreži (Barber i saradnici 2012, p.400), a koji su inače zaduženi za verifikaciju transakcija. Logički zaključak koji proističe iz ove činjenice ukazuje na to da se sa rastom obima transakcija u BTC valuti može očekivati veća sigurnost, jer što je veći obim transakcija u bitkojn valuti, praktično će biti teže vršiti zloupotrebe.

• - U pitanju je “open-source” valuta, budući da je kod koji upravlja emisijom i transakcijama otvorenog karaktera, i svi zainteresovani mogu imati pristup.

• U bitkojn sistemu plaćanja praktično ne postoje računi nalik onima koji postoje u bankama. BTC valuta bi mogla biti shvaćena kao sef u kome se nalazi određena vrednost. Ono što formalni vlasnici određene količine BTC valute praktično poseduju jeste ključ koji im omogućuje jedinstven i ovlašćen pristup tom sefu, odnosno plaćanje.

Navedene osnovne karakteristike bitkojna mogu se ilustrovati kroz sledeću rečenicu: „Temelj bitkojn filozofije je u kombinaciji kriptografske sigurnosti digitalnog sveta koju čini veliki broj računara povezanih u jaku i neuništivu peer to peer mrežu i ograničenoj količini raspoloživih resursa kao što je to slučaj sa srebrom i zlatom (maksimalan broj bitkojn novčića je 21 milion, trenutno u opticaju je oko 11,5 miliona (prim. aut.)) čineći tako jaku i stabilnu takozvanu kriptovalutu koja se nalazi na Internet mreži ali fizički nije prisutna ni u jednoj zemlji na svetu“ (Bitcoinbalkan.com 2012).

Šema transakcije u bitkojn valuti

Bitkojn valuta može biti kreirana na Internetu od strane bilo koga, tj. od bilo kog člana mreže čiji računar vršu verifikaciju transakcija. Pritom, svaki računar u mreži može predstavljati tzv. “node”, tj. „mining“ računar koji zajedno sa ostalim računarima učestvuje u verifikaciji iniciranih transakcija. Sam proces verifikacije transakcija predstavlja dodavanje digitalnog zapisa u tzv. “glavnu knjigu” izvršenih bitkojn transakcija, odnosno u “lančani zapis blokova transakcija” (En.bitcoin. it n.d.). Pod blokom transakcija se podrazumeva skup nedavno generisanih transakcija koje čekaju verifikaciju od strane ostalih računara u mreži. Inače, sam bitkojn se može smatrati lancem digitalnih potpisa. Naime, svaka transakcija se verifikuje od strane određenog broja ostalih računara u mreži, pri čemu se sve te transakcije u digitalnom zapisu čuvaju u samom elektronskom formatu koji reprezentuje bitkojn valutu.

Ovaj proces verifikacije transakcija se u tom smislu obavlja od strane većeg broja računara u mreži, kako bi se obezbedila veća sigurnost i regularnost verifikovanih transakcija. Dodatnu sigurnost pruža “vremenski pečat” (engl. “timestamp”) kao integralni deo svakog lanca digitalnih potpisa (Nakamoto n.d., p.2), čime se obezbeđuje autentičnost transakcija, odnosno sprečava mogućnost višestrukog korišćenja jedne iste količine bitkojna za kupovinu različitih dobara i usluga. Takođe, svaki blok sa sobom nosi i određeni matematički problem koji računar mora da reši. Svaki od tih zadataka je moguće rešiti na više načina, a dovoljno je pronaći jedan kako bi transakcija bila realizovana. Za svaki uspešno rešeni zadatak generiše se određen broj bitkojna kao nagrada za vlasnike računara koji su „rešili zadatak“. Ovo je istovremeno i način na koji bitkojn privlači nove korisnike. Nakon prijema bitkojna po osnovu određene transakcije, potrebno je da protekne određeni vremenski period od 10 minuta do 1h, da bi primalac mogao da koristi taj novac. Kao razlog ovog čekanja navodi se činjenica da je potreban određeni vremenski period za pronalaženje bloka transakcija koji će se verifikovati (En.bitcoin.it n.d.). Inače, bitkojn novac nastaje u računarskom programu koji se zove “Bitkojn rudar” (engl. “Bitcoin miner”).

Kao što Šema 1 pokazuje, svaka transakcija između dva računara u mreži zahteva verifikaciju ove transakcije od strane određenog broja računara u mreži. Nakon uspešno verifikovane transakcije dolazi do proširenja lanca digitalnih zapisa koji predstavljaju bitkojn. Oni “mining” računari koji vrše tzv. “hashing” i verifikaciju transakcija dobijaju, tj. generišu određen broj BTC kao nadoknadu za tu svoju ulogu i koji mogu koristiti po svom nahođenju. U tom smislu, trošenje električne energije i rad “mining” računara, uslovno rečeno, predstavlja realno pokriće za emitovani bitkojn. Pritom se u velikoj meri zanemaruje činjenica da vrednost utrošene električne energije i hardverskih resursa može prevazilaziti vrednost generisanih BTC valuta, pa se može postaviti pitanje ekonomske isplativosti, tj. održivosti takve valute. Kao jedan od faktora koji opravdava ove troškove može se navesti anonimnost koju korišćenje ove valute pruža. Međutim, danas se na tržištu mogu pronaći uređaji koji višestruko povećavaju kapacitet “mining” računara, tako da se “rudarenje” BTC valute može smatrati profitabilnim. Primera radi, sredstva investirana u kupovinu “GPU” (grafičkih kartica) ili “ASIC Bitcoin Miner” uređaja koji se koriste u te svrhe se mogu povratiti u roku od nekoliko meseci (Barber i saradnici 2012, p.400).

Faktor koji određuje verovatnoću da će “mining” računar pronaći blok transakcija koje treba verifikovati poznat je kao “difficulty” faktor. On u suštini predstavlja meru težine pronalaženja tog bloka (En.bitcoin.it n.d.). U slučajevima kada je relativno veliki broj računara na mreži spreman da vrši verifikaciju, ovaj faktor se povećava, i obrnuto. Uloga ovog faktora se ogleda u podsticanju korišćenja bitkojn valute onih koji bi želeli da zarade putem “rudarenja”, jer se smanjenjem “difficulty” faktora povećava verovatnoća pronalaženja bloka u uslovima kada je mali broj učesnika zainteresovan da verifikuje transakcije. Sa druge strane,, “difficulty” faktor se povećava u slučajevima kada je veliki broj članova mreže spreman da vrši verifikaciju naloga, kako bi se ograničila stopa monetarnog rasta u željenim okvirima (Nakamoto n.d., p.3). Vrednost “difficulty” faktora se menja nakon svakih 2016 blokova.

Pritom sama mreža, odnosno algoritam na kome se zasnivaju transakcije u bitkojn valuti, definiše koliko bitkojna svako pojedinačno može kreirati, u skladu sa pravilom “kontrolisane ponude” (engl. “controlled supply”). Broj bitkojna koji se na ovaj način može generisati je u samom nastanku iznosio 50 BTC po bloku, dok od 2013. godine nagrada iznosi 25 BTC po bloku. Broj generisanih bitkojna po bloku transakcije biće prepolovljen na svake 4 godine, što će tokom vremena dovoditi do usporene stope rasta količine bitkojna u opticaju.

Emisija bitkojna i njeni efekti

Emisija bitkojna je u potpunosti isplanirana, odnosno programirana, i njeno upravljanje je dodeljeno samoj mreži, odnosno onim računarima koji vrše verifikaciju transakcija. Ovakav algoritam je izabran jer on u najvećoj meri aproksimira stopu rasta ekstrakcije pojedinih ruda kao što je zlato, budući da je ograničena količina bitkojna koja u jednom trenutku može postojati u sistemu i maksimalna količina koja se može „izrudariti“.

Programiranim tempom rasta količine BTC novca u opticaju određeno je da maksimalna količina emitovanih bitkojna nikada ne pređe nivo od 21.000.000 BTC. Budući da je za verifikaciju jednog bloka transakcija potrebno u proseku 10 minuta, to je ujedno i period tokom kojeg se broj bitkojna poveća za malopre pomenutih 25 (od početka 2013. godine do kraja 2017.), da bi se broj novoemitovanih BTC u jedinici vremena programirano smanjivao tokom vremena.

Međutim, primena ovakve programirane stope ograničenog i usporenog monetarnog rasta za posledicu može imati rast deviznog kursa bitkojna, kao i pad cena proizvoda izraženih u bitkojn valuti, što bi u konačnom trebalo da utiče na rast tražnje za ovom valutom. Prema nekim shvatanjima, upravo je ekspanzivna monetarna politika mnogih centralnih banaka nakon 2008. godine sa ciljem ublažavanja negativnih efekata krize i strah od inflacije jedan od najvažnijih faktora koji su uticali na relativno veliku tražnju za bitkojn valutom (Christin, Moore 2013, p.1). Po shvatanju kejnzijanaca, pad cena izraženih u jednoj valuti i istovremena apresijacija te valute može motivisati transaktore da više štede, a manje troše, što u konačnom može imati recesione efekte. Težnja ka štednji bi dovela do smanjenjog korišćenja ove valute, pa bi sve veći broj „mining“ računara napuštao mrežu, zbog čega bi došlo do ugrožavanja stabilnosti i slabljenja deviznog kursa ove valute (Barber i saradnici 2012, p.404). Sa druge strane, po shvatanju predstavnika austrijske škole, pad cena ne obuhvata samo pad cena finalnih prozvoda, već i inputa, tako da ne bi trebalo da dođe do smanjenja profita i recesije (En.bitcoin. it n.d.). Koja će se shvatanja pokazati ispravnim, zavisiće od niza faktora, pre svega stabilnosti i sigurnosti bitkojna kao valute.

Naime, trenutno se ova valuta može smatrati sigurnom za realizaciju transakcija, ali ne i dovoljno stabilnom u pogledu otpornosti na spekulativne udare i druge izvore nestabilnosti, budući da je trenutno njena kapitalizacija relativno mala, pa veoma mali poremećaji mogu uticati na značajna kolebanja cena i kursa. Naime, ova valuta može u velikoj meri biti podložna različitim spekulativnim napadima, budući da ne postoje regulativne odredbe i sankcije za one članove mreže koji bi trgovanjem pokušali da utiču na devizni kurs i tako ostvarili spekulativni profit i ugrozili integritet same valute. Treba imati u vidu i da su same transakcije anonimne, tako da bi se moglo postaviti pitanje određene regulacije ovih transakcija. Međutim, to bi moglo ugroziti anonimnost kao jednu od osnovnih prednosti ove valute. Sa rastom tržišta može se očekivati veći imunitet na spekulativne udare. Međutim, budući da će u narednom periodu stopa monetarnog rasta biti relativno mala, rast tržišta bi se mogao ostvariti jedino putem jačanja deviznog kursa ove valute, tj. ova valuta bi mogla postati stabilnija ukoliko bi dovoljno apresirala.

Deflaciona tendencija bi bila dodatno intenzivirana i usled delovanja sledećih faktora:

• Centralne banke svih zemalja bi u manjoj ili većoj meri povećavale količinu novca u opticaju svake godine, dok bi sa druge strane ponuda bitkojna bila relativno sporo rastuća. Pritom, treba imati u vidu da bi kurs bitkojna pre svega zavisio od tražnje za tom valutom. Iako je 2010. godine u odnosu na početnu 2009. stopa monetarnog rasta BTC valute iznosila 100%, trenutno oko 13% na godišnjem nivou, zbog same prirode proizvoda i usluga koje se njime mogu kupiti i usled sve većeg broja kompanija koje primaju bitkojn (En.bitcoin.it n.d.) kao sredstvo plaćanja, ovaj monetarni rast ne izaziva inflaciju.

• Paralelno sa padom cena izraženih u bitkojn valuti povećavala bi se granična sklonost štednji, pa bi povećanje brzine opticaja novca, kao potencijalni faktor koji bi mogao da utiče na smanjenje deflacionih procesa, izostalo (ECB 2012, p.25).

Kalkulacijom se takođe može doći do zaključka da će već 2025. godine stopa monetarnog rasta iznositi manje od 1% (tačnije 0,83%), a 2037. godine manje od 1‰ (tj. 0,095%). Nakon čega, monetarni rast će se i dalje nastaviti zanemarljivo malim stopama, ali nikada neće preći programiranu granicu od 21.000.000 BTC. Kretanje ponude bitkojna tokom vremena je prikazan na Grafikonu 1:

Inače, već 2035. godine. će u opticaju biti 99% programirane gornje granice bitkojna (približno 20.800.000 BTC), tj. do 2040. godine će nestati interes za daljim “rudarenjem” u današnjem smislu, jer bi bili potrebni ogromni resursi da bi se stvorio čak i minimalni deo jednog bitkojna. Nakon toga, predviđeno se da vlasnici “mining” računara zarađuju po osnovu nalaćivanja transakcionih troškova za verifikovane transkcije u određenom procentu (ECB 2012, p.25), tako da se dugoročno ovaj sistem može oceniti kao održiv. Stopa monetarnog rasta tokom vremena bi se u polulogaritamskom grafikonu sa prirodnom osnovom mogla predstaviti na Grafikonu 2:

Inače, broj generisanih bitkojna dnevno koje jedan pojedinac može ostvariti po osnovu “mining” aktivnosti je implementiran u samom kodu bitkojn valute i određuje se po sledećoj formuli (Bitcoin.stackexchange.com 2011):

Ukoliko bismo uprostili ovu formulu time što bismo deo formule sačinjen od više konstanti sveli na jedan realan broj dobili bismo njenu skraćenu verziju:

U ovom izrazu značenje parametara je sledeće:

• X predstavlja broj generisanih bitkojna,

• D predstavlja trenutni „difficulty“ faktor,

• H predstavlja trenutni „hash-rate“, odnosno brzinu kojom konkretan uređaj koji pojedinac poseduje vrši „rudarenje“,

• B predstavlja nagradu u bitkojnima za realizovan blok transakcija,

• 20,11626 predstavlja konstantu u formuli.

Kao što se može zapaziti, pored toga što zarada po osnovu “mining” procesa zavisi od tzv. “difficulty” faktora, predviđene brzine stvaranja BTC u jedinici vremena (trenutno iznosi 25 BTC po jednom bloku, odnosno na svakih 10-ak minuta), ovaj proces zavisi od brzine kojom računari vrše “rudarenje”. Brzina se izražava u h/s (engl. “hash per second”), odnosno u Mh/s ili Gh/s. Na osnovu kalkulacija se može zaključiti da zarada i brzina otplate po osnovu “mining” procesa zavisi od kvaliteta uređaja koji se koristi za taj proces. Inače, zarada po osnovu korišćenja klasičnih grafičkih kartica koje su se do nedavno koristile za ovaj proces je trenutno neuporedivo manja (nekoliko desetina do nekoliko hiljada puta) u odnosu na najsavremenije uređaje za “rudarenje” (En.bitcoin.it n.d.)). Budući da se tokom narednih godina može očekivati povećanje “difficulty” faktora (u skladu sa dosadašnjom tendencijom (Bitcoinx.com n.d.)) i smanjenje broja generisanih bitkojna po bloku transakcija, profitabilnost će se, pod pretpostavkom nepromenljivog kursa i nepromenjenih cena uređaja za “rudarenje” i električne energije višestruko smanjivati.

U Tabeli 1 su prikazani osnovni statistički podaci o bitkojn valuti na dan 22.03.2013. i na dan 30.08.2013. godine:

Kao što se može zapaziti, u odnosu na period pre 5 meseci, došlo je do povećanja bitkojn novčanih jedinica u opticaju, što je i očekivano, budući da je u pitanju programiran proces. Takođe, došlo je do povećanja tržišne kapitalizacije BTC valute, što je pre svega posledica njene apresijacije. Uvećanje kapitalizacije tokom vremena od samog nastanka 2009. godine, a naročito tokom 2013. godine, kako usred povećanja broja bitkojna, tako i usled apresijacije njegovog deviznog kursa može se uočiti sa Grafikona 3:

Može se reći da BTC valutni sistem ima određene sličnosti sa zlatnim standardom, jer postoji gornja granica rasta količine valute u opticaju, tako da, slično sistemu zlatnog važenja, može postati kočnica daljem razvoju, budući da onemogućuje povećanje tražnje putem povećanja količine novca u opticaju. Povezano sa pravilom “kontrolisane ponude”, poželjno je naglasiti da je čak i sam Milton Fridman smatrao da je monetarnu politiku programirane ili konstantne stope monetarnog rasta moguće uspešno implementiratu pomoću računara (Econlib.org 2006). Inače, pristalice bitkojna kritikuju sistem frakcionih rezervi. Takođe, smatraju da je nastanak ove valute početni korak u ukidanju monopola centralne banke kao ekskluzivnog emitenta novca (ECB 2012, p.22). Postoje i shvatanja da je kreator ove valute kao inspiraciju imao zlatni standard. Međutim, ono po čemu se ovaj sistem razlikuje od zlatnog standarda jeste nedostatak unutrašnje, tj. materijalne vrednosti koja je svojstvena robnom novcu kao što su to plemeniti metali, dok bitkojn poseduje samo funkcionalnu vrednost koja zavisi od njegove kupovne snage.

Postoje, međutim, i shvatanja da bitkojn valuta u suštini funkcioniše kao Ponzijeva šema, budući da onima koji ranije počnu sa njenim korišćenjem pruža mogućnost ostvarenja značajnog profita ukoliko prodaju svoje bitkojne u uslovima rasta cena. Međutim, kao razlike ovog sistema u odnosu na Ponzijevu šemu možemo izdvojiti (ECB 2012, p.27):

• Ne postoji očekivani finansijski prinos koji se može ostvariti niti se prilikom prvog korišćenja bitkojn valute potpisuje ugovor koji garantuje visok prinos, čak ni za početne ulagače. U praksi, profit se može ostvariti kako po osnovu rudarenja, čime nastaju novi bitkojni, tako i po osnovu jačanja deviznog kursa ove valute. Međutim, taj profit je neizvestan, pre svega komponenta koja se odnosi na apresijaciju deviznog kursa.

• Ne postoji centralna institucija ili kompanija koja bi mogla da pokupi novac od korisnika sistema i „nestane“. Iako u praksi oni koji su prvi počeli da „rudare“ uspevaju da najviše i zarade, svaki profit ostvaren po osnovu „rudarenja“ i kasnijeg izlaska iz sistema bi se pre mogao okarakterisati kao spekulacija („kupiti jeftino, prodati skupo“) nego Ponzijeva šema. Međutim, u praksi je ipak postojao primer koji demantuje ovaj argument, a u pitanju je slučaj kompanije „Bitcoin Savings and Trust“ (“BTCST”) koja je tokom 2011. i 2012, godine koristeći klasičnu Ponzijevu šemu proneverila novac svojih korisnika. Ipak, ovaj primer se može oceniti samo kao izuzetak, odnosno kao zloupotreba sistema, ali ne i kao dokaz da bitkojn valuta funkcioniše kao Ponzijeva šema.

Devizni kurs bitkojna

Devizni kurs bitkojna se, kao i u slučaju bilo koje druge valute formira na berzi, na bazi sučeljavanja ponude i tražnje za tom valutom. U odnosu na početak godine kada je BTC/USD kurs iznosio približno 13, krajem avgusta je vrednost bitkojna prema američkom dolaru približno 10 puta veća i BTC/USD kurs iznosi oko 130. Očigledno je da 1 BTC ima višestruko veću vrednost od bilo koji zvanične svetske valute, pri čemu se njegova vrednost uglavnom izražava u USD, budući da se na bitkojn berzama najveći deo bitkojna razmeni za američki dolar.

Krajem avgusta se u opticaju nalazi ukupno skoro 12 miliona BTC, pri čemu njihova ukupna vrednost izražena u USD približno iznosi preko 1,4 milijarde USD. Konkretno, to znači da je ukupna vrednost svih emitovanih bitkojna nominalno veća od bruto društvenog proizvoda pojedinih zemalja. Budući da je cena zlata približno 50 USD/g, možemo zaključiti da 1 bitkojn vredi nešto više od 2,5 grama zlata. Prevedeno u RSD po kursu od približno 85 RSD/USD, za kupovinu jednog bitkojna je na dan 29.08.2013. godine potrebno više od 11.000 RSD. Pritom, 1 bitkojn je jednak 100.000.000 „satoshis“-a (naziv „satoshis“ potiče od pseudonima Satoshi Nakamoto, tj. pseudonima kreatora ili grupe ljudi koji su stvorili bitkojn).

Inače, kurs bitkojna zavisi od ponude i tražnje za ovom valutom. Kretanje srednjeg ponderisanog dnevnog kursa BTC valute u odnosu na USD može se uočiti na osnovu Grafikona 4:

Na osnovu dostupnih podataka od početka 2013. godine statističkom analizom može se doći do zaključka da linearna funkcija trenda najbolje opisuje kretanje vrednosti BTC valute. Ocenjena linearna funkcija trenda glasi:

BTC/USD = 27.95 + 0.45t

pri čemu je bazni period 1. januar 2013. godine, a to je ceo broj koji predstavlja broj dana nakon 1.januara. Međutim, budući da je koeficijent determinacije svega r²= 0.52, ocenjena funkcija trenda se ne može primeniti za ekstrapolaciju, odnosno ne bismo mogli sa velikim stepenom sigurnosti da procenimo kretanje vrednosti bitkojna u budućnosti. Ovako nizak koeficijent determinacije ukazuje na činjenicu da je devizni kurs bitkojna veoma nestabilan. Nestabilnosti deviznog kursa bitkojna u velikoj meri doprinosi i podložnost različitim šokovima, o čemu će više reči biti kasnije.

Prednosti i nedostaci bitkojn valute

Kao osnovne prednosti bitkojna u odnosu na ostale, kako nacionalne, tako i alternativne valute, obično se navode:

• Za razliku od transakcija klasičnim elektronskim novcem koji se nalazi na računima banaka, u slučaju bitkojna ne postoje transakcioni troškovi ili su oni svedeni na minimum, dok sa druge strane ne postoji ograničenje u pogledu minimalnog iznosa transakcije koju je moguće realizovati (Nakamoto n.d., p.1).

• Kontrolu transakcija i emisiju BTC valute vrše kompjuterski algoritmi, čime se onemogućava pojava veštački izazvane inflacije. Takođe, ovom verifikacijom se izbegava “duplo plaćanje” (engl. “double-spending”), čime bi se mogao zloupotrebiti sistem (Bitcoin.org/en/ about n.d.) i nekontrolisano povećavala količina novca u opticaju. Sigurnost plaćanja je pritom zasnovana na korišćenju kriptografije.

• Praktično je gotovo nemoguće falsifikovati bitkojn. Teoretski, to bi bilo moguće ukoliko bi se isti BTC iskoristio za istovremeno obavljanje dva plaćanja. Međutim, lanac digitalnih potpisa onemogućava takve transakcije (Stanford Bitcoin Group n.d.).

• Omogućena je potpuna anonimnost transaktora. Međutim, iako ovo predstavlja pogodnost za određene grupe ekonomskih subjekata, sa aspekta poreskih i regulatornih organa ova osobina bitkojna bi se definitivno mogla oceniti kao njen nedostatak. Za razliku od elektronskog novca u platnom prometu kod kojeg su informacije o učesnicima u transakciji javnog, a informacije o transakcijama privatnog karaktera, u slučaju bitkojn valute su informacije o transaktorima privatnog karaktera, tj. veoma često ni samim transaktorima nije poznato kome vrše plaćanja, dok su same karakteristike realizovane transakcije javnog karaktera.

Sa druge strane, kao neke od osnovnih nedostataka bitkojn valute možemo izdvojiti sledeće:

• Bitkojn nije široko prihvaćen kao sredstvo plaćanja. Naime, veoma je mali broj privrednih subjekata koji primaju bitkojn za prodaju prodaju robe, odnosno pružanje usluga. Iako je broj ovih subjekata sve veći, uloga bitkojna kao sredstva plaćanja je još uvek veoma ograničena. Razlog ovoj pojavi leži kako u činjenici da postoji niz proizvoda koji se ne mogu kupiti za bitkojn, tako i u činjenici da ova valuta ne postoji u svojoj fizičkoj verziji, tako da se može koristiti jedino za elektronska plaćanja.

• Devizni kurs bitkojna je veoma nestabilan. Tome u velikoj meri doprinosi i nepostojanje centralnog entiteta poput centralne banke koja bi putem intervencija na deviznom tržištu ili nekom drugom merom monetarne politike mogla pozitivno da utiče na njegovu stabilizaciju.

• Transakcije bitkojn valutama nisu reverzibilne, što znači da nije moguće poništiti već realizovanu transakciju. Iako se ova osobina bitkojn valute može smatrati njenim nedostatkom, značajno je zapaziti da bitkojn u suštini više liči na keš nego na elektronski novac, pa samim tim nema nikakvu mogućnost poništavanja transakcija, jer po definiciji ne postoji sistem za praćenje toka novca. Drugim rečima, transakcije realizovane elektronskim novcem koji se nalazi na računima banaka se mogu poništiti u određenom roku. Sa druge strane, u najvećem broju slučajeva gotovinu potrošenu u prodavnici uglavnom nećemo moći da povratimo, osim ukoliko nije u pitanju roba sa garancijom i sl. Upravo u ovome i leži jedan od najvećih problema vezan za korišćenje bitkojn valute, a koji se odnosi na teškoće prilikom povraćaja novca u slučaju kupovine neispravnih proizvoda bez adekvatno regulisane garancije. Sa druge strane, ovo je odličan mehanizam zaštite prodavaca od zloupotreba, jer im ovaj mehanizam omogućuje sigurnu i momentalnu naplatu svojih potraživanja po osnovu prodate robe (Nakamoto n.d., p.1). Vezano za reverzibilnost transakcija, značajno je naglasiti da je osnovni uzrok ove osobine bitkojna činjenica da, u opštem slučaju, ne postoji posrednik u plaćanju, odnosno, sve plaćanja se vrše direktno između tržišnih subjekata. Iako se nererzibilnost može oceniti kao nedostatak bitkojna, treba imati u vidu da nepostojanje posrednika za posledicu ima nepostojanje provizija koje bi u suprotnom naplaćivale banke ili drugi posrednici u platnom prometu. Međutim, ne treba zanemariti činjenicu da postoje opcione provizije koje plaćaju oni koji žele da transakcija u bitkojn valuti bude brže realizovana (Stanford Bitcoin Group n.d.).

• Iako je reč o vidu elektronskog novca, postoji mogućnost njegovog gubitka. Naime, jedna od specifičnosti ove valute jeste da ona postoji samo u svojoj elektronskoj verziji. Pritom se nalog koji se koristi za plaćanja razlikuje od klasičnog transakcionog računa u banci po tome što ne postoji institucija poput banke koja bi transaktorima zatvorila ili blokirala nalog. Takođe, ne postoje nikakva ograničenja u pogledu korišćenja bitkojna. Nalog mogu deaktivirati sami korisnici sistema time što bi prestali da ga koriste i time što bi se oslobodila svih BTC valuta na svom nalogu. Nalog se inače gubi i ukoliko se prilikom oporavka operativnog sistema na računaru ne obezbedi skladištenje (engl. “backup”) bitkojna. Time se faktički taj novac trajno gubi iz sistema. U tome se faktički i ogleda sličnost između bitkojn valute i običnog novca, budući da on praktično može biti izgubljen ili uništen (Kaplanov 2012, p.116). Međutim, za razliku od običnog novca koji može biti dodatno otštampan od strane centralne banke, u slučaju bitkojna ne postoji entitet koji bi emitovao novu količinu novčanih jedinica koje bi zamenile nestale ili uništene bitkojne.

• Kao poslednji nedostatak bitkojna bismo mogli navesti sve one probleme koji se odnose na zloupotrebe kojima je on podložan, a koji se odnose na mogućnost obavljanja nelegalnih aktivnosti, pranje novca, stvaranja “crnih tržišta”, ali i poreskih rajeva, mogućnost poreske evazije, ali i neotpornost na različite napade kompjuterskih virusa itd.

Korišćenje BTC valute se preporučuje manjim kompanijama i preduzetnicima, budući da im omogućuje prodaju proizvoda i njihovu naplatu uz niže transakcione troškove, tj. bez provizija različitih finansijskih institucija, kao i zahvaljujući činjenici da je veoma lako implementirati ovaj oblik prodaje i naplate prodaje putem Interneta. Međutim, time se može dovesti u pitanje legalnost obavljanja takvih aktivnosti, naročito kada je reč o prodaji digitalnih proizvoda (softvera, muzike,…) koji se mogu neograničen broj puta umnožavati i prodavati bez ikakve evidencije, čime se može izbeći izvršenje poreske obaveze.

Finansijske institucije koje posluju sa bitkojnima

Trenutno postoji oko 50 aktivnih berzi na kojima se zvanične valute mogu razmeniti za bitkojn, od kojih je najznačajnija “MtGox” na kojoj se dnevno razmeni oko 64% ukupnog prometa bitkojn valutom za ostale zvanične valute i obrnuto. Inače, bitkojn se najviše razmenjuje za USD (74%) i EUR (14%), dok je značaj svih ostalih valuta zanemarljiv (Bitcoincharts.com n.d.). Inače, statistička analiza aktivnih i ugašenih bitkojn berzi je pokazala nekoliko zakonitosti (Christin, Moore 2013, p.7):

• Sa povećanjem prometa na nekoj berzi smanjuje se verovatnoća da će doći do njenog zatvaranja

• S druge strane, što je promet na nekoj berzi veći, postojaće i veća šansa da dođe do različitih oblika zloupotreba i prekršaja.

Pritom treba imati u vidu da je u ovoj analizi apstrahovan niz faktora koji bi potencijalno mogli da utiču na dobijanje drugačijih rezultata. Primera radi, nije uzeta u obzir reputacija samih berzi, odnosno činjenica da će atraktivnost same berze zavisiti od sigurnosti koju ona pruža svojim korisnicima.

Takođe, iako je kao jedna od osnovnih karakteristika kriptovaluta, a samim tim i bitkojna, navedena činjenica da ovakve valute u opštem slučaju funkcionišu bez posredovanja finansijskijh institucija, ne treba zanemariti činjenicu da se marta 2013. godine pojavio prvi hedž fond „Exante“ koji investira u bitkojn. Treba međutim naznačiti da ovaj fond ima širok portfolio aktivnosti, pri čemu su operacije sa bitkojnom samo jedna od njih. Fond kao naknadu za svoje usluge ne naplaćuje procentualni deo ostvarenog profita, već fiksnu proviziju od 0,5% neto vrednosti Bitcoin Fund-a. Pritom, ovaj fond ogroman akcenat stavlja na zaštitu podataka i sigurnost fonda. Marta 2013. godine vrednost fonda je iznosila približno 3,2 miliona USD. Inače, za pristup fondu su neophodna inicijalna ulaganja od minimum 100.000 USD (Forbes.com 2013). Ovaj fond ostvaruje zaradu po osnovu kapitalnih dobitaka na kupljene bitkojne, pri čemu jedna akcija ovog fonda vredi tačno jedan BTC. S obzirom na vrtoglavi rast vrednosti bitkojn valute, očekuju se visoki prinosi po osnovu plasmana ovog fonda. Kao osnovne prednosti investiranja u fond umesto direktne kupovine BTC valute navode se (Exante.eu/press/news2013[a]):

• Lakše je kupiti akcije/investicione jedinice fonda nego bitkojn.

• Sredstva investirana u fondove umesto u direktnu kupovinu bitkojn valute se smatraju sigurnijim, budući da takvi fondovi, između ostalog i Exante, značajan akcenat stavljaju na kriptografsku sigurnost sredstava svojih korisnika.

Inače, od juna 2013. godine ovaj fond svojim klijentima nudi „Automatic Trading Platform“ (ATP), odnosno elektronsku platformu za trgovinu koja im omogućuje niz usluga koje se, između ostalog, odnose na različite statističke alate i portfolio menadžment (Exante.eu/press/news 2013[b]).

Međutim, ovaj fond nije prva finansijska institucija koja je radila sa bitkojn valutom. Naime, ne treba zaboraviti ni na „Bitcoin Savings and Trust“ (“BTCST”) kompaniju koja je, koristeći klasičnu Ponzijevu šemu, od 2011. do septembra 2012. godine prikupila oko 700.000 BTC (vrednih više od 4,5 miliona USD) od svojih klijenata obećavši im nedeljne stope prinosa od čak 7%, a zatim taj novac proneverila. Tim povodom je jula 2013. godine američka “Komisija za hartije od vrednosti i berzu” (engl. “Securities and Exchange Commission” - SEC) optužila ovu kompaniju i Trendon Shaversa, njenog osnivača (Wang 2013).

Takođe, postoje i najave da će vlasnici BTC valute moći da na realnim bankomatima da povlače zvaničan novac čiji je emitent centralna banka u ekvivalentnom iznosu (eventualno umanjenom za određenu proviziju), kao i da će se moći koristiti prilikom kupovine u prodavnicama na POS terminalima (Newscientist.com 2012).

Kao što se može zaključiti, iako je bitkojn po svojoj prirodi decentralizovana valuta koja čak i eliminiše potrebu za finansijskim posrednicima, same potrebe njegovih korisnika očigledno nameću potrebu za odgovarajućim finansijskim institucijama koje bi imale različite funkcije u bitkojn transakcijama. Kao neke od finansijskih institucija koje za sada posluju sa bitkojn valutom za sada su se izdvojile berze koje omogućuju razmenu najpoznatijih svetskih valuta za bitkojn i obratno. Takođe, sve češće se javljaju i druge finansijske institucije kao posrednici u plaćanju bitkojnima, a koje svojim klijentima nude veći stepen zaštite podataka i sigurnosti pri obavljanju transakcija u odnosu na direktna plaćanja bez korišćenja usluga finansijskih posrednika. U tom smislu, ukoliko izvršimo komparaciju razvoja decentralizovane bitkojn valute sa razvojem klasičnog novca, pojava nekog oblika centralnog entiteta u ovom sistemu (po osnovu ekonomske moći ili po osnovu nekih zakonskih odredbi) koji bi preuzeo neke od funkcija klasične centralne banke više ne deluje kao naučna fantastika. Naime, prvi oblici novca su, kao što je poznato, bili stoka, koža, so, med, krzno, kasnije metali kao što su gvožđe, bakar i plemeniti metali (srebro i zlato), a zatim i novčanice. Paralelno sa razvojem sredstava plaćanja javljali su se novi učesnici u privrednom životu kao što su zlatari koji su izdavali certifikate po osnovu deponovanog novca i međusobno vršili kliring potraživanja svojih klijenata. Nakon toga nastaju i privilegovane banke koje su bile jedine ovlašćene od strane države da emituju banknote, da bi prve centralne banke nastale tek u 17. veku (Đurović-Todorović 2010, str.18- 23). U tom smislu, iako prve oblike novca nije emitovala nijedna centralna institucija, već sami ljudi, nije isključena mogućnost da nekada u budućnosti kriptovalute kao što je bitkojn, koje su po svojoj prirodi decentralizovane, dobiju centralnu instituciju. Međutim, budući da, prema mnogim shvatanjima, upravo decentralizovanost ovakve valute predstavlja faktor koji u najvećoj meri pozitivno utiče na tražnju za takvom valutom, postoji verovatnoća da bi u slučaju pojave centralnog entiteta u takvim sistemima opala tražnja za tim valutama, a povećala se tražnja za drugim valutama koje još uvek nisu centralizovane. U konačnom, ceteris paribus, pokušaj regulacije i centralizacije neke kriptovalute bi u konačnom samo mogao dovesti do napuštanja tih valuta, erozije njihovog značaja i migracije korisnika i tranfera njihovih sredstava u druge valute.

Problemi funkcionisanja i regulacija bitkojna

Bitkojn valuta je gotovo u potpunosti van regulacionog spektra centralne banke i poreskih organa. Stoga je pojedini autori pogodnim instrumentom za stvaranje “crnog tržišta” različitih roba i usluga, a najznačajnija opasnost postoji ukoliko bi se koristila za obavljanje nelegalnih aktivnosti. Primera radi, zabeleženi su slučajevi kada se bitkojn valuta koristila za kupovinu droge putem Interneta (Manchin. senate.gov 2011).

Takođe, ništa beznačajniji nisu problemi po osnovu krađe (koje su se već dešavale) ili potencijalnog nekontrolisanog umnožavanja ove valute od strane cyber-kriminalaca (što je za sada praktično neizvodljivo). Usled toga, može doći i do značajnih fluktuacija kursa bitkojn valute. Između ostalog, postoje i procene stručnjaka za kriptografiju i sigurnost podataka na Internetu da se sigurnost ove valute može oceniti kao veoma niska (Economist.com 2012). Primera radi, 2011. godine se pojavio kompjuterski virus, tj. „Trojanac“ koji “krade bitkojn novčanike” (engl. „Bitcoin wallet“), tj. koji, ukoliko se nađe na računaru onog ko koristi bitkojn valutu, preuzima i šalje putem Interneta na odgovarajuću adresu kompjuterske fajlove pomoću kojih je moguće sa nekog drugog računara koristiti tuđ bitkojn novac (Symantec.com 2011). Usled tog sigurnosnog kolapsa, vrednost bitkojna je pala sa 30,99 USD 08.06.2011. na svega 0,10 USD 20.06.2011. Do decembra 2011. godine vrednost valute se vratila na nešto više od 3 USD (ECB 2012, p.38). Sledeći značajan udarac na bitkojn valutu dogodio se 10. aprila 2013. godine. Tog dana je trgovina BTC valutom otpočela po ceni od 200 USD, da bi tokom dana dostigla svoj istorijski maksimum od čak 266 USD, da bi u roku od par sati njena vrednost pala ispod 100 USD. Iako su se prve sumnje odnosile na dv. DDoS napad, zvaničnici MtGox berze su izjavili da je uzrok ovog problema preveliki obim trgovine.

Inače, DDoS napad (engl. „distributed denial- of-service attack“) predstavlja napad na tržišni centar putem masovnog ispostavljanja naloga za trgovinu kako bi se izazvala blokada u trgovini i izvršio uticaj na cenu. Međutim, pravi DDoS napad je ubrzo zaista usledio, pa je berza prekinula proces trgovanja u periodu od 2 sata, mada je i narednih 8 sati postojao problem u pristupu mreži. Prekid trgovanja se desio na još nekim bitkojn berzama. Ovaj kolaps je ukazao na neke od osnovnih slabosti bitkojn valute, a koje se odnose kako na dominantan položaj MtGox berze, tako i na činjenicu da je veliki broj elektronskih berzi za trgovanje bitkojn valutom razvijan od strane web developer-a koji jesu iskusni profesionalci, ali nisu poznavali u dovoljnoj meri način funkcionisanja finansijskih berzi (Bitcoinmagazine.com 2013).

Jedno od osnovnih pitanja koje se postavlja od same pojave bitkojn valute odnosi se na legalnost njegove primene. Inače, kao razlozi zbog kojih bi bitkojn trebalo smatrati potpuno legalnom valutom navode se: pravo na slobodnu razmenu, činjenica da bitkojn ne predstavlja alternativu američkom dolaru kao zvaničnoj valuti, odnosno ni na koji način ne predstavljaju njegov falsifikat, niti se nalaze u širokoj upotrebi. Sa druge strane, kao razlozi zbog kojih bi trebalo zakonski preciznije regulisati korišćenje bitkojna navode se povećana mogućnost poreske evazije i činjenica da bitkojn otvara mogućnost za kreiranje poreskih rajeva i crnog tržišta različite robe (pre svega droge), kao i za pranje novca.

Naime, transakcije u bitkojnima prema nekim ocenama imaju klasične elemente bartera, odnosno trampe, a takve transakcije su oporezive. Međutim, bitkojn po svojoj prirodi nudi anonimnost i mogućnost prikrivanja brojnih transakcija od poreskih organa čime se izbegava izvršenje poreske obaveze. Takođe, značajno pitanje se odnosi i na nadležno zakonodavstvo u slučaju transakcija u bitkojn valuti na međunarodnom nivou, kada bi bilo veoma teško utvrditi nadležnu poresku vlast. Sa jedne strane, kriptovalute (među kojima je trenutno najaktuelniji bitkojn) su sve popularnije. Sa druge strane, finansijske institucije su pod sve većim pritiskom da dostavljaju potrebne informacije o svojim klijentima poreskim organima i sarađuju sa njima kako bi se sprečila poreska evazija. Iako je reč o potpuno nezavisnim procesima, činjenica je da oni u sve većoj meri konvergiraju (Marian 2013, p.38). U tom smislu, korišćenje kriptovaluta je po svojim efektima dosta slično poslovanju u ofšor zonama, budući da profit ostvaren u, primera radi, bitkojn valuti nije predmet oporezivanja, a takođe korisnici ovih valuta imaju obezbeđenu anonimnost. Praktično, sa nastankom kriptovaluta poreski obveznici su dobili novo oružje za poresku evaziju. Štaviše, ne postoji ni institucija od koje bi poreski organi mogli da zahtevaju dostavljanje informacija o vlasnicima računa u toj valuti. U sistemima plaćanja zasnovanim na kriptovalutama ne postoje ni centralne banke kao emitenti, ni klasične finansijske institucije koje bi mogle biti predmet različitih pritisaka poreskih organa. Drugim rečima, korišćenje kriptovaluta za sada, uslovno rečeno, poreske vlasti ne mogu uspešno da kontrolišu, odnosno da detektuju korišćenje ovih valuta na sistematičan način, osim eventualno u pojedinačnim slučajevima. Prema nekim shvatanjima, postoji opasnost da će se u budućnosti poreska evazija sve više odvijati putem korišćenja kriptovaluta, a na štetu sadašnjih ofšor zona, odnosno mogu im predstavljati direktnu konkurenciju. Međutim, sa druge strane treba imati u vidu relativno malu vrednost virtuelne ekonomije u okviru koje se koriste te vrituelne valute, tako da je za sada prisutno i relativno malo interesovanje nadležnih poreskih organa za većom kontrolom ovih tokova. Takođe, trenutni ekonomski potencijal kriptovaluta im ne omogućuje da postanu značajnija konkurencija ofšor zonama.

Pored poreske evazije, anonimnost koja je imanentna bitkojn valuti pruža i niz mogućnosti za prikrivanje različitih kriminalnih aktivnosti. Pod tim pre svega imamo u vidu trgovinu drogom, pranje novca, i niz drugih kriminalnih aktivnosti.

Stoga, kao potencijalna rešenja za rizike koje primena ove valute sa sobom nosi mogu se izdvojiti sledeći predlozi (www-cs-faculty. stanford.edu n.d.[2]):

• Forsirano licenciranje - Budući da u slučaju bitkojna ne postoji centralni entitet niti klasične finansijske institucije koje bi mogle biti primorane da izvrše registraciju kao posrednici u plaćanju (engl. „money transmitters“), postoje predlozi da bi se registracija trebala odnositi samo na vlasnike „mining“ računara. Međutim, to bi predstavljalo isuviše komplikovanu proceduru, a takođe bi postojao problem vezan za regulaciju ukoliko bi se „rudarenje“ vršilo iz drugih zemalja u kojima ne postoji ovakav oblik regulacije.

• Zahtevi za poreskim izveštajima - Postoji ideja da bi svi korisnici bitkojna trebalo da automatski budu u obavezi da poreskim organima dostavljaju sve izveštaje o transakcijama u ovoj valuti. Međutim, primenom ovakve mere poreski organi bi se suočili sa preprekama kao što su: mogućnost obavljanja transakcija iz inostranstva, teška izvodljivost s obzirom na neophodnost saglasnosti korisnika, nestabilna vrednost bitkojn valute i niz drugih.

• Prinudno gašenje - Kao jedan od načina za gašenje ove i sličnih valuta može se navesti i formalna zabrana korišćenja ovakvih valuta kao sredstava plaćanja i donošenje niza restriktivnih zakonskih odredbi kojima bi se suzbijalo ili kontrolisalo korišćenje ovih valuta. Takođe, postoje ideje da bi virtuelne valute, s obzirom na relativno mali ekonomski značaj, mogle da budu u potpunosti otkupljene od strane centralne banke ili da centralna banka angažuje resurse koje bi koristila za „rudarenje“ tih valuta, čime bi one bile eliminisane iz dalje upotrebe (Marian 2013, p.47). Međutim, to bi uvek iziskivalo manje ili veće troškove. Takođe, tu bi se možda pojavila i mogućnost različitih zloupotreba.

Međutim, i pored izdvojenih teorijskih shvatanja o nužnosti i načinu regulacije transakcija u bitkojn valuti, zanemarljivo mali broj zemalja je učinio nešto konkretno po tom pitanju. Primera radi, u slučaju SAD-a ne postoji nijedna zakonska odredba kojom se izričito zaključuje zabrana korišćenja ove valute i definiše njeno korišćenje ilegalnom aktivnošću (www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu n.d.[1]). Sa druge strane, postoje i određeni pokušaji da se različitim preporukama, direktivama i podzakonskim aktima daju smernice za regulaciju alternativnih valuta, uključujući i decentralizovane virtuelne valute kao što je bitkojn. Jedan od njih je i „Primena FinCEN- ove regulacije na osobe koje administriraju, razmenjuju i koriste virtuelne valute” (engl. „Application of FinCEN’s Regulations to Persons Administering, Exchanging, or Using Virtual Currencies”). U pitanju je preporuka kojom je “Financial Crimes Enforcement Network” kao departman Trezora SAD-a pokušao da da sugeriše način implementacije „Bank Secrecy Act“ regulative na virtuelne valute. Prema ovoj preporuci, ekonomski subjekt koji kreira virtuelnu valutu i koristi je za kupovinu realnih dobara i usluga se smatra korisnikom te valute i njegove aktivnosti nisu predmet regulacije. Sa druge strane, subjekt koji kreira virtuelnu valutu i prodaje je za zvanično sredstvo plaćanja se smatra posrednikom u plaćanju i njihove aktivnosti su predmet regulacije (Fincen.gov 2013, p.5). Međutim, osim ovog pojmovnog razgraničenja ovom preporukom nije dat odgovor na niz dodatnih pitanja vezanih za regulaciju ovih transakcija.

U Nemačkoj je ove godine bitkojn dobio status „privatnog novca“ (engl. „private money“), čime je načinjen značajan korak napred ka širem zakonskom obuhvatu i masovnijem korišćenju ove valute. Korišćenje bitkojna i njegova emisija nisu zabranjeni, međutim, profit po osnovu korišćenja bitkojna podleže poreskim zakonima. Naime, prihodi ostvareni po osnovu prodaje proizvoda i pružanja usluga ostvareni u bitkojn valuti se oporezuju porezom na dodatu vrednost, dok se sav ostali profit po osnovu emisije ili korišćenja bitkojna oporezuje porezom na dohodak, odnosno dobit (Dw.de 2013). Međutim, nije naglašeno na koji bi način bilo rešeno pitanje poreske evazije.

Iako po pitanju regulacije bitkojna nije mnogo učinjeno ni u Francuskoj, značajno je zapaziti činjenicu da su regulatorni organi Bitcoin-Central-i, jednoj od bitkojn berzi, dali dozvolu za obavljanje određenih bankarskih poslova, pre svega onih vezanih za usluge platnog prometa. Time će njenim klijentima biti omogućeno da deponuju sredstva u evrima ili bitkojnima i da ih jednostavno konvertuju (Tagteam.harvard.edu n.d.). Takođe, ova sredstva su deponovana na računu druge finansijske institucije, i u skladu sa tim su osigurana do iznosa od 100.000 EUR od strane francuskog “Fonda za garanciju depozita” (franc. „Fonds de garantie des dépôts “) (En. bitcoin.it n.d.).

Međutim, i pored ovih pojedinačnih izuzetaka, u opštem slučaju područje alternativnih valuta, a pre svega decentralizovanih kriptovaluta kao što je bitkojn do sada nije adekvatno, nedvosmisleno i u potpunosti regulisano ni u jednoj od relevantnih jurisdikcija.

Zaključak

Bitkojn predstavlja specifičnu valutu koja se po svojim karakteristikama razlikuje od svih svojih prethodnika. Otkad se pojavila pokrenula je niz kontroverzi vezanih za pozitivne i negativne efekte njene primene. Emisija ove valute je kompjuterski programirana i ograničena, zasnovana na „peer-to-peer“ tehnologiji i tehnologiji enkripcije podataka čime se faktički eliminiše mogućnost dvostrukog plaćanja, falsifikovanja i sličnih zloupotreba. To je ujedno i jedan od glavnih razloga zbog čega se ova valuta smatra sigurnom iako ne postoji centralna emisiona institucija. Transakcioni troškovi su veoma niski, gotovo su zanemarljivi, ali same transakcije nisu reverzibilne, što se može oceniti značajnim nedostatkom ove valute.

Međutim, s obzirom na činjenicu da je makroekonomski značaj bitkojna zanemarljivo mali, čak i manji šokovi mogu negativno uticati na njegovu stabilnost i izazvati drastične fluktuacije deviznog kursa. Pritom ne postoji centralna institucija koja bi mogla svojim merama pozitivno da utiče na njegovu stabilizaciju, a što može predstavljati značajnu prepreku za masovnije korišćenje ove valute. Budući da ova valuta svojim korisnicima praktično pruža potpunu anonimnost i netransparentnost njihovih aktivnosti, postoje kritike da se na taj način kreira pogodan ambijent za pranje novca, kreiranje crnih tržišta nelegalne robe, poresku evaziju i niz drugih kriminalnih radnji. Takođe, postojali su slučajevi različitih zloupotreba poput Ponzijevih šema i kompjuterskih Trojanaca koji su korišćeni za krađu elektronskih novčanika korisnika bitkojn valuta.

Stoga se vodi sve češća diskusija o potrebi regulisanja ovakvih kriptovaluta. Iako je određen broj zemalja počeo da reguliše bitkojn transakcije, i dalje je relativno malo učinjeno po tom pitanju budući da ovakvo pitanje zahteva veliku opreznost. Naime, bilo koji oblik kontrole i regulacije ovakvih valuta bi za posledicu mogao imati preusmeravanje korisnika tih valuta na korišćenje drugih kriptovaluta koje još uvek nisu predmet regulative ili transfer bitkojn transakcija u one jurisdikcije u kojima one nisu regulisane. U tom smislu, jedan od najvećih izazova za centralne banke i nacionalne regulatorne organe u budućem periodu će se vrlo verovatno odnositi na praćenje efekata korišćenja ovakvih valuta i njihovu regulaciju, odnosno preduzimanje adekvatnih mera u slučaju različitih zloupotreba ili izazivanja nestabilnosti. Kakva će biti budućnost bitkojna i sličnih kriptovaluta zavisiće kako od regulacije ovakvih valuta, tako i od njihove sigurnosti i stabilnosti.

1. Barber Simon, Boyen Xavier, Shi Elaine, Uzun Ersin, “Bitter to Better - How to Make Bitcoin a Better Currency”, Financial Cryptography, Volume 7397 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, page 399-414. Springer (2012), crypto.stanford.edu/~xb/fc12/bitcoin.pdf, Vreme pristupa: 02.08.2013.

2. Bitcoin.org/en/about, “About Bitcoin”, n.d., bitcoin.org/en/about, Vreme pristupa: 01.08.2013.

3. Bitcoin.stackexchange.com, “How Much Bitcoin Will I Mine Right Now With Hardware X?”, 2011, bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/118/how-much-bitcoin-will-i-mine-right-now-with-hardware-x, Vreme pristupa: 08.08.2013.

4. Bitcoinbalkan.com, “Uvod u Bitcoin”, 2012, bitcoinbalkan.com/uvod-u-bitcoin, Vreme pristupa: 24.08.2013.

5. Bitcoincharts.com, n.d., bitcoincharts.com, Vreme pristupa: 28.08.2013.

6. Bitcoinmagazine.com, “The Bitcoin Crash:An Examination”, 2013, bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/the-bitcoin-crash-an-examination-1365911041, Vreme pristupa: 22.08.2013.

7. Bitcoinx.com, n.d., bitcoinx.com/charts/, Vreme pristupa: 29.08.2013.

8. Christin Nicolas, Moore Tyler, “Beware the Middleman: Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin Exchange Risk”, Financial Cryptography, Volume 7859 of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 25-33. Springer (2013), andrew.cmu.edu/user/nicolasc/publications/MC-FC13.pdf, Vreme pristupa: 07.08.2013.

9. Dw.de, “Germany lends real value to bitcoin virtual money”, 2013, dw.com/en/germany-lends-real-value-to-bitcoin-virtual-money/a-17038675, Vreme pristupa: 25.08.2013.
10. Đurović-Todorović Jadranka, „Monetarna ekonomija“, Ekonomski fakultet u Nišu, Niš, 2010.
11. ECB, “Virtual Currency Schemes”, 2012, ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/virtualcurrencyschemes201210en.pdf, Vreme pristupa: 01.08.2013.
12. Econlib.org, “An Interview with Milton Friedman”, 2006, econlib.org/library/Columns/y2006/Friedmantranscript.html Vreme pristupa: 21.08.2013.
13. Economist.com, “Monetarists Anonymous”, 2012, economist.com/node/21563752, Vreme pristupa: 24.08.2013.
14. En.bitcoin.it, “Bitcoin Central”, n.d., en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin-Central, Vreme pristupa: 22.08.2013.
15. Exante.eu/press/news , “Bitcoin Fund aims to make Bitcoin Investing easy”, 2013[a], exante.eu/press/news/297/, Vreme pristupa: 27.08.2013.
16. Exante.eu/press/news, “EXANTE Opens Up an Automatic Trading Platform for Bitcoin Funds”, 2013[b], exante.eu/press/news/314/, Vreme pristupa: 27.08.2013.
17. Fincen.gov Fincen.gov, “Application of FinCEN’s Regulations to Persons Administering, Exchanging, or Using Virtual Currencies”, 2013, fincen.gov/statutes_regs/guidance/pdf/FIN-2013-G001.pdf, Vreme pristupa: 15.8.2013.
18. Forbes.com, “First Bitcoin Hedge Fund Launches From Malta”, 2013, Vreme pristupa: 27.08.2013. forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/03/08/first-bitcoinhedge-fund-launches-from-malta/, Vreme pristupa: 28.08.2013.
19. Kaplanov Nikolei M., “Nerdy Money: Bitcoin, The Private Digital Currency, And The Case Against Its Regulation”, Temple University Legal Studies Research Paper, 2012, luc.edu/media/lucedu/law/ students/publications/clr/pdfs/kaplanov. pdf, Vreme pristupa: 05.08.2013.
20. Manchin.senate.gov, “Manchin Urges Federal Law Enforcement to Shut Down Online Black Market for Illegal Drugs”, 2011, manchin.senate.gov/public/ index.cfm/press-releases?ID=284ae54a-acf1- 4258-be1c-7acee1f7e8b3, Vreme pristupa: 25.08.2013.
21. Nakamoto Satoshi, “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”, n.d., bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf, Vreme pristupa: 04.08.2013.
22. Newscientist.com, “Bitcoin credit card to let users withdraw cash”, 2012, newscientist.com/blogs/onepercent/2012/08/bitcoincredit-card-to-let-use.html, Vreme pristupa: 27.08.2013.
23. Marian Omri Y., “Are Cryptocurrencies 'Super' Tax Havens?”, 112 Michigan Law Review First Impressions (2013), ssrn.com/abstract=2305863, Vreme pristupa: 23.08.2013.
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27. Tagteam.harvard.edu, “Feed Item: Bitcoin going mainstream? Exchange approved to operate as a bank”, n.d., tagteam.harvard.edu/hub_feeds/1785/feed_items/69431, Vreme pristupa: 26.08.2013.
28. Wang Mengyi, “SEC Charges Texas Man with Running a Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme”, 2013, jolt.law.harvard.edu/digest/patent/flash-digest-news-in-brief-144, Vreme pristupa: 23.08.2013.
29. Www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu, “Current Legal Status”, n.d.[1], cs- faculty.stanford.edu/~eroberts/cs181/ projects/2010-11/Bitcoins/current-legal- status.html, Vreme pristupa: 21.08.2013.
30. Www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu, “Regulating Bitcoin”, n.d.[2], cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs201/projects/2010-11/Bitcoins/regulating-bitcoin.html, Vreme pristupa: 21.08.2013.

@ 5ea46480:450da5bd

Ofcourse do we want our big open world cake, and eat it with a side of stability and order. I love the spammers, because all they do is press our noses on the grim reality we are facing: Everything is going to turn to absolute shit. The fact that we are all interconnected is meaningless because the communication lines contain too much noise.

Look, some spambot posting silly things that might waste your attention for a tiny bit before you figure out its not worth your time, or clutter your feed, is not the end of the world. But the point is that that post could be anything, and with a bit of AI effort more convincing. We all sense this, in fact we even see it, and there is no indication to think it wont get worse.

Important to note is, that the big platforms are struggling with this crap as well. Their set up is by their nature a ‘have a cake and eat it’ proposition: Yes we are the worlds public square that everyone visits in this particular domain, and we will keep you safe from spammers and fraudsters. But we ran out of captchas, and they are forced to heighten their walls, reinforce their gates and increase the amount of guards that are on patrol; slowly but surely, you as a user will be forced to subjugate yourself to more and more scrutiny, restrictions and punishment if you want to be active there. At some point the only reason they would be considered ‘the worlds public square’, is because they are the only vestiges of order left without any existing alternatives.

If we seriously want to introduce that alternative, we would have to approach the issue in a fundamentally different manner. That issue, is one of reputation, i.e. consistent behavior over time. Now to be clear, there is no full proof system for reputation, it does not exist for two reasons: One, anyone at any time can decide to break their consistent behavior simply because they feel like it. And two, because you you never have perfect information and can therefor not interpret the consistency of their behavior perfectly; think of a spy for example, where them consistently lying to you and eventually betraying you actually makes them a consistent spy.

Reputation is always a game of who knows who, but ‘social’ reputation is hard to scale: the longer the ties become, the less they can be relied upon. To scale reputation went the route of formalization via institutions: these are your certificates, badges, uniforms whatever, as a testament you went through certain predefined hoops in a controlled environment. As a result, whatever reputation the institution might have rubs off on you. It also stacks in the fact that one certificate can only be obtained when other certificates were acquired prior. So these certificates are pieces of reputational capital, defined in records. This system allowed us to create globe spanning organizations.

That system does work, but it is rigid, and the moment it becomes corrupt you are very, very screwed, because on what basis are you going to put it back together again? In any event, that is what we have anyway and as noted it has other issues, so what other option is there? Scaling ‘social’ reputation. The whole idea behind Nostr’s ‘Web of Trust’, is that bottom-up connections and relations, that are (partly) based on existing relations in meat-space can form a globally meaningful reputational pillar on which we can start identifying each other again.

If seven handshakes connects you with everyone, four will get you pretty far. Three is even less risk, whilst five might open up interesting doors for you. The point is, its gradual, and according to your risk appetite you can play around with it. Secondly, the better well connected you are, how more of a reputation you gained, the less risk you need to run to begin with. Obviously this requires some bootstrapping, but you live in meatspace; if there really is no-one out there willing to give you a leg up you might want to do some soul searching.

But the result of this strategy, will be that everyone will pull back behind their own little moats first. At first, we will all lose connections to defend ourselves against the massive onslaught of ‘the Fake’: The big estrangement. But that is ok, with a bit of effort, I am sure that eventually, after enough reputational capital is build over time, we will find each other again in this global village.

@ 9dd283b1:cf9b6beb

To all territory owners,

• Can I co-found a territory with someone? Is it on the roadmap to be able to do so?
• Can I automatically split the territory rewards with other stackers?
• Can I rename the territory in the future?

Thanks

https://stacker.news/items/996796

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

"Modern science is based on this principle: give us one free miracle and then we'll explain the rest."

— Terrence McKenna

I always wondered why a pot of water boils on the stove. I mean I know it boils because I turned on the electricity, but why does the electricity cause it to boil? I know the electricity produces heat, and the heat is conducted through the stainless steel pot and into the water, but why does the heat transfer from stovetop to the water?

I know the heat from the stove via the pot speeds up the molecules in the water touching it and that they in turn speed up the molecules touching them and so on throughout the pot, but why do speedy molecules cause adjacent molecules to speed up?

I mean I know they do this, but why do they do this? Why couldn’t it be that sped-up molecules only interact with sufficient speedy molecules and ignore slower ones? Why do they interact with all the molecules, causing all of them to speed up? Or why don’t the speedy ones, instead of sharing their excited state, hoard it and take more energy from adjacent slower molecules, thereby making them colder, i.e., why doesn’t half the water boil twice as fast (on the left side of the pot) while the other half (right side) turns to ice?

The molecules tend to bounce around randomly, interacting as equal opportunists on the surrounding ones rather than distinguishing only certain ones with which to interact. Why do the laws of thermodynamics behave as such rather than some other way?

There may be yet deeper layers to this, explanations going down to the atomic and even quantum levels, but no matter how far you take them, you are always, in the end, left with: “Because those are the laws of physics”, i.e., “because that’s just how it is.”

. . .

The Terrence McKenna quote, recently cited by Joe Rogan on his podcast, refers to the Big Bang, the current explanation adopted by the scientifically literate as to the origins of the universe. You see there was this insanely dense, infinitesimally small micro dot that one day (before the dawn of time) exploded outward with unimaginable power that over billions of years created what we perceive as the known universe.

What happened prior? Can’t really say because time didn’t yet exist, and “prior” doesn’t make sense in that context. Why did it do this? We don’t know. How did it get there? Maybe a supermassive black hole from another universe got too dense and exploded out the other side? Highly speculative.

So why do people believe in the Big Bang? Because it comports with and explains certain observable phenomena and predicted other phenomena which were subsequently confirmed. But scratch a little deeper for an explanation as to what caused it, for what purpose did it occur or what preceded it, and you hit the same wall.

. . .

Even if we were to understand at a quantum level how and why the Big Bang happened and what preceded it, let’s assume it’s due to Factor X, something we eventually replicated with mini big-bangs and universe creations in our labs, we would still be tasked with understanding why Factor X exists in the universe. And if Factor X were explained by Process Y, we’d still be stuck needing an explanation for Process Y — ad infinitum.

Science can thus only push the wall back farther, but can never scale it. We can never arrive at an ultimate explanation, only partial ones. Its limitations are the limitations of thought itself, the impossibility of ever creating a map at a scale of one mile per mile.

@ 7460b7fd:4fc4e74b

TRX网络USDT在华人地下跨境犯罪经济中的作用研究

引言

华人主导的跨境地下犯罪经济近年来出现了新的金融工具——以USDT（泰达币）稳定币为核心的加密货币支付体系，尤其流行于波场（TRON）网络上的TRC20-USDT。这种去中心化货币在跨国电信诈骗、网络赌博、人口贩卖等灰黑产业中扮演着关键角色binance.combinance.com。本文将从学术角度探讨TRX网络USDT在上述犯罪经济中的作用，包括：USDT如何充当金三角、柬埔寨、西港等地跨国犯罪的资金纽带；灰色金融圈中“黑U”“灰U”的含义及其链上特征与处置；犯罪团伙对imToken、Bitpie、TokenPocket等手机钱包的广泛使用；USDT作为“市场择优的货币”在政治经济真空地带的自发流通；以及TRON创始人孙宇晨在国际政治博弈中的行为与传统华人“避政治”思维的张力。这些讨论将结合公开报道、行业调查和链上分析数据进行梳理，以期勾勒出USDT在地下经济链条中的隐秘版图。

波场USDT：东南亚跨境犯罪网络的资金动脉

\ 柬埔寨金边街头一处提供USDT兑换的店面，电子屏幕上用中英文显示“USDT抵押换汇7.2保永久”，反映USDT已成为当地地下经济的常用货币工具 © 丹妮尔·基顿-奥尔森/南华早报followin.iofollowin.io。

在东南亚的跨境犯罪热点地区（如“金三角”地带、柬埔寨西哈努克港等），TRC20版USDT已成为各种违法活动的共同资金链条binance.combinance.com。这些地区聚集了大量中国籍犯罪团伙，从电信诈骗园区到网络博彩赌场，甚至涉有人口贩卖和强迫劳动的黑营地，USDT被用作吸纳赃款、转移资金和内部结算的“通用货币”binance.combinance.com。USDT在波场网络上的迅捷匿名转账特性使其深受不法分子青睐：波场自2018年上线后将区块链交易速度提升至秒级、手续费降至美分级，用户体验几乎等同于银行转账，这直接助推了当年涉币犯罪案件数量同比大增74%geekpark.net。在现实中，这意味着诈骗集团可以在几分钟内将巨额资金通过TRX网络划转出境，且几乎无需手续费，难以被传统金融监管即时拦截。

大量调查显示，东南亚跨国诈骗集团正大规模依赖USDT来收取和清洗赃款。例如，柬埔寨一度被揭露隐藏着每年高达190亿美元规模的加密诈骗网络，相当于该国GDP的60%，其中USDT等加密币是资金流转的主要媒介binance.com。一些大型华人诈骗组织开发了高度集成的平台，以Huione汇旺集团为核心技术支撑，将受害者骗来的资金迅速转换为难以追踪的USDT进行跨境转移binance.combinance.com。在柬埔寨和邻近地区，USDT俨然形成一个地下金融循环：金边街头随处可见标有中文的兑换店提供人民币与USDT的24小时兑换服务，USDT成为华人社群规避中国外汇管制、参与地下交易的首选工具followin.io。即使柬埔寨官方名义上禁止加密货币交易，低成本、高效率的USDT交易仍在暗地里蓬勃发展，连当地一些持牌交易所也默认为华人客户提供USDT兑换，以参与这条灰色产业链followin.iofollowin.io。

跨国电信诈骗和网络博彩中，犯罪团伙常要求受害者将资金兑换为USDT后转入其提供的钱包地址，以逃避银行监控reddit.com。所谓“杀猪盘”式骗局就经常引导受害者在合法加密平台购买USDT，再充值到骗子控制的虚假投资App中reddit.com。通过这种方式，赃款直接进入链上流通，远离了传统银行体系。例如，2023年在柬埔寨西港运营的“银河集团”诈骗团伙诱骗国内3万余名中老年受害者投资虚假项目，骗取人民币1.433亿元后，即通过Telegram联系国内“币商”将赃款兑换为USDT并分散转移sohu.comsohu.com。中国警方披露，该团伙在数月内组织40名境内人员专门从事USDT洗钱，涉案金额2000多万元人民币sohu.com。最终这些帮凶被以掩饰、隐瞒犯罪所得罪判刑sohu.com，说明USDT已成为跨境诈骗资金回流国内的主要通道之一。

同样在2025年，泰国警方抓获了一名跨国诈骗嫌犯ZHOU某，此人曾在柬埔寨西港绑架勒索同胞100万人民币，并涉及多个国际诈骗和洗钱团伙news.qq.comnews.qq.com。调查发现，一名与其同居的中国女子通过USDT洗钱，从网络投资诈骗中获利高达1,840万枚USDTnews.qq.com。如此巨量的USDT流水再次印证了波场USDT在此类犯罪经济中的核心地位。波场链上USDT流通量近年来更是迅猛攀升：截至2023年5月，TRC20-USDT发行量突破777亿美元，一举超越以太坊网络上的USDT发行，成为全球最大规模的稳定币网络okx.com。截至2025年5月波场上的USDT流通量进一步超过757亿美元，占据稳定币市场半壁江山，表明愈来愈多资金选择经由波场USDT流动binance.comblocktempo.com。有报告指出，自2022年以来波场一直在USDT日均交易量上领先于以太坊binance.com。这部分反映了东南亚以及全球范围内大量非正规资金和灰色资本正涌入波场USDT体系，因为相比之下以太坊网络手续费高昂且链上交易透明度更高，不法分子更倾向于成本低且风评相对隐蔽的波场网络geekpark.netbinance.com。

值得注意的是，一些东南亚国家政商势力默许甚至参与了这种地下经济。例如柬埔寨有证据表明，多名执政党高官间接从强迫劳动的诈骗活动中获利，纵容了USDT地下经济的发展binance.combinance.com。柬埔寨政商背景深厚的Huione集团建立起庞大的USDT支付与担保系统，在东南亚乃至东亚范围处理着巨额资金流web3caff.comweb3caff.com。据美国财政部数据，Huione旗下的“汇旺担保”仅通过Telegram运营，自2021年来已处理超过40亿美元资金binance.com。链上分析显示，其核心地址在2023年一年内流入高达21.58亿USDT，其中被判定为网络赌博、高风险灰产交易、洗钱、诈骗等“不干净”资金的占比接近20%web3caff.comweb3caff.com。由于卷入大量东南亚非法活动，2024年7月Tether公司冻结了Huione关联地址上的2,962万枚USDT，引发业界关注web3caff.com。更大规模的冻结也在发生：美国司法部2023年调查东南亚诈骗洗钱网络时，一次性没收了近900万美元加密货币，并促使Tether追加冻结了2.25亿美元疑涉“杀猪盘”骗局的USDTfollowin.iofollowin.io。这些执法动作表明，波场USDT纵然便利，也已成为全球监管机构打击跨境犯罪的新焦点。

“黑U”与“灰U”：灰色金融中的稳定币污点

随着USDT渗透灰色金融领域，“黑U”“灰U”成为华语圈特有的行业术语，用于区分USDT资金的“清白”程度binance.comaicoin.com。黑U一般指明确涉及违法犯罪活动的USDT资金，往往来源地址已被执法机关标记冻结，或由Tether公司应司法请求冻结操作binance.combinance.com。此类“黑U”由于链上烙印污点，很可能无法正常转出或在交易所兑现——比如某人从违法平台提取USDT，而该平台被警方查封，其地址标记为涉案地址，那么任何从该地址转出的后续地址上的U币都可能被视为涉案资产而遭冻结处理binance.combinance.com。灰U则多指尚未被官方标记但来源可疑、涉及灰色产业（如地下赌资、逃税资金等）的USDT。这类USDT处于执法视野的灰色地带，短期内或可正常流通，但一旦上游案件爆发也有染黑的风险。业内人士形象地将广泛用于欺诈、盗窃、黑客攻击等黑灰产活动的稳定币称为“黑U”，事实上主要指USDTaicoin.com。随着各国加大链上追踪力度，越来越多交易所和机构对可疑USDT敬而远之，以免卷入反洗钱调查aicoin.com。“黑U”“灰U”之分也提醒场外交易者提高风险意识。

中国警方和司法机关对涉案USDT等加密资产的处置，近年逐步形成规范。cn.tradingview.com据中科链源SAFEIS安全研究院《2022年中国虚拟货币司法处置报告》，截至2022年底，中国司法机关扣押在案、等待处置的加密货币总价值约348亿元人民币，涵盖比特币、以太币和泰达币（USDT）等主流币cn.tradingview.comcn.tradingview.com。值得注意的是，近年涉币案件数量虽有所下降，但案件中涉案加密资产总量却在逆势飙升，表明加密货币犯罪正朝着“大案值、专业化”方向发展cn.tradingview.com。司法实践中，“黑U”等涉案USDT的处置主要有两种：一是在案件判决后将虚拟币变现上缴财政；二是在侦查阶段由公安机关先行变现或冻结保管cn.tradingview.com。无论哪种方式，如何安全合规地将币兑换为法币是核心难题。一些地方检察机关开始出台内部指引，细化了查询冻结、扣押保管、移送处置各环节的操作规范，为依法处置涉案虚拟货币提供指南cn.tradingview.com。这表明官方已经认识到“黑U”“灰U”资产处置的迫切性和复杂性。

链上分析工具也用于甄别黑灰U的流转特征。执法技术公司中科链源开发了SAFEIS安士查控平台，能够将大额可疑USDT流动绘制成网状资金流向图，对涉嫌地址实施7×24小时监控news.sina.cnnews.sina.cn。根据多年研究，他们总结出虚拟币洗钱的典型路径，包括场外承兑、跨境“跑分”、地下钱庄等fx168news.com。对于USDT洗钱，往往呈现四处流窜、多层中转的链上踪迹：不法分子常用新开钱包地址来降低过往交易痕迹binance.com；利用去中心化交易所（DEX）、跨链桥、混币器等手段试图打乱追踪news.sina.cnnews.sina.cn；甚至发行内部结算代币以逃避监管覆盖binance.com。例如，上文提到的汇旺团伙就曾发行自己的稳定币来优化洗钱流程binance.com。但无论花样如何翻新，链上留下的记录终究难以彻底抹去。一旦某个USDT地址被认定藏污纳垢，执法部门可请求Tether公司冻结其代币资产web3caff.com。Tether作为中心化稳定币发行方，近年来频繁执行“泰达冻结”动作以配合各国执法，涉及人口贩卖、毒品贸易、大规模洗钱等重大案件时更是果断出手faxianlaw.com。例如2023年下半年，Tether因配合美国调查“大猪杀”诈骗园区，短时间内冻结了数亿美元涉案USDTfollowin.io。当然，滥用冻结也引发争议：合法的加密企业若误收了部分“黑U”，账户突然被冻将遭受业务重创并可能面临法律风险web3caff.com。因此行业呼吁建立更透明的黑灰U识别和通知机制。在完全去中心化的未来尚未到来前，“黑U”恐怕仍将如同“黑钱”一般，通过监管合作与技术手段被不断围追堵截binance.com。对于普通币民而言，务必提高警惕，避免因贪图便宜买入来源不明的低价USDT而沾染黑灰风险binance.com。行业建议是在正规交易所购买USDT、通过信誉良好的场外商家出售，以尽量隔绝“脏U”影响binance.com。正如业内提示的那样：“只要你能顺利转出并在交易所变现的U，就算好U”binance.com——这背后是复杂的风控筛查和执法协作在发挥作用。

数字钱包：灰产链条中的隐秘工具

在地下灰产的运作中，常用的手机数字钱包应用如imToken、Bitpie、TokenPocket等扮演了重要角色。这些去中心化钱包由于无需实名制、便于多链资产管理且操作灵活，成为灰黑产从业者的“随身钱袋”和逃避监管的利器。据一线执法人员观察，许多涉案人员手机中往往安装有多个此类钱包App，以方便随时收付USDT等数字资产。在前述柬埔寨诈骗园区中，被胁迫工作的人员甚至可能通过数字钱包领取薪资或提成，犯罪集团用USDT直接支付，以绕开银行系统的追踪。这些钱包也用于团伙内部结算和跨境转账，诈骗集团会将受害者的钱转换成USDT发送到自己的imToken等钱包，再通过不记名的链上账户在全球范围内调度资金。

对于从事洗钱的“币商”而言，钱包是必不可少的工具。正如反洗钱专家所建议的，黑灰产业人员切忌将黑钱直接充入交易所账户，而应先提到个人钱包，再经由场外渠道兑换binance.combinance.com。这样做的原因在于：交易所往往配合监管监测大额可疑充提，一旦直接存入“黑U”，交易所可能冻结账户并上报公安binance.com。相反，钱包地址由于去中心化且与个人身份无直接关联，警方难以及时掌握钱包持有人真实身份binance.com。例如，币圈常用的钱包imToken支持ETH和TRON等主流链，灰产人员可以在其中生成多个USDT地址，用完即弃，降低被关联的风险**binance.com**。再通过这些钱包将U币分散转移给他人或其他钱包，实现“跳板”洗白。近年来流行的跑分平台骗局也利用受害者的钱包参与黑U兑换，以脱钩源头aicoin.comaicoin.com。可以说，手机钱包已成为灰色资金流动的重要载体。

值得关注的是，这些钱包应用在华人灰产圈中几乎成为“标配”。有海外华人论坛调侃道：“你做的事情跟灰产有关，自然就会用到imToken这款钱包。”这反映出imToken等在地下圈子的普及度之高。当然，钱包本身只是工具，其本意并非服务犯罪。然而在严厉的金融监管和资金跨境限制下，很多游走灰色地带的资金选择了数字钱包这条“暗道”。以imToken和TokenPocket为例，它们提供方便的私钥管理和转账功能，用户可自行掌控资产，不受第三方冻结。某种程度上，灰产人员利用的正是去中心化钱包“无边界”、“抗审查”的特质，将非法资金与现实身份切割开来。比如Telegram上的币商常指导买家先下载这些钱包收币，再协助将USDT卖出兑换人民币，从而避开银行敏感词监控和卡片冻结风险binance.combinance.com。链上资金在钱包之间空转数次后，再流入交易所时已难以直接追查源头。这给执法带来巨大挑战：警方往往需要提取嫌疑人手机中的钱包数据或借助链上分析，还原出钱包地址之间错综复杂的关系链，方能锁定赃款流向。

当然，一旦钱包地址与某起案件建立关联，也可能进入监控清单。数字执法工具可以将特定地址标记为高风险，实现实时预警news.sina.cnnews.sina.cn。部分钱包应用也开始与审计工具合作，标记可疑资产来源以提醒用户。尽管如此，“去中心化钱包+USDT”仍是当前地下资金体系中成本最低、效率最高的配置。对于普通用户而言，需要警惕的是不要随意为陌生人充当USDT资金中转，否则极可能卷入洗钱犯罪。近期就有多起中国公民因帮助境外灰产跑分兑换USDT而被以帮信罪判刑的案例sohu.com。这些教训表明，即便使用的是号称匿名的数字钱包，链上交易终究逃不过法网。因此，正确使用钱包的方式应是合法合规理财，而非为灰黑资金“提桶接水”。对监管者而言，则需在尊重技术发展的同时，加强对钱包使用异常行为的监控和溯源能力建设。

哈耶克视角：USDT——真空地带的“市场择优”货币

奥地利经济学家弗里德里希·哈耶克曾提出货币去国家化和自由竞争理论，主张让各种私人货币在市场中竞争，优胜劣汰，由市场自行选择最适合的货币。USDT的崛起，在某种意义上印证了哈耶克的这一预见——在政治与经济的真空地带（或者说监管薄弱、法币失灵的环境中），一种由私人公司发行的数字稳定币获得了广泛自发采用，成为事实上的流通货币。

在柬埔寨、西非、缅北等“金融飞地”或灰色地带，官方法币要么信用不足、通胀严重，要么受到资本管制难以自由兑换。在这些场景下，各方参与者自然倾向选择一种稳定且高效的价值媒介来交易结算。USDT恰好符合这一需求：锚定美元确保价值稳定，跨境转移不受主权限制，交易成本低且速度快。如前所述，柬埔寨的华人地下经济圈干脆跳过当地货币瑞尔和美元现金，直接用USDT进行兑换、抵押和支付followin.iofollowin.io。赌场里兑筹码可以用USDT，诈骗团伙内部发奖金用USDT，毒贩收到赃款也偏好收USDTjiemian.comjiemian.com。USDT俨然成为这些地区事实上的“硬通货”，这正是自由市场选择货币的体现——不管发行者是不是政府，只要一种货币能更好地充当交换媒介和价值储藏手段，市场就会拥抱它。

从哈耶克的货币观来看，USDT的流行揭示出当法定体系无法满足交易各方需求时，民间会自发寻求替代方案。在中国严格限制资金出境和境外赌博的背景下，大批资金绕道USDT离开银行体系追逐海外投资或赌局followin.io。市场“择优”的结果，使得泰达币这种原本用于币圈交易避险的稳定币，在完全不同的场景中获得生命力：既服务于跨境商贸和侨汇，也沦为电诈洗钱和地下钱庄的工具。这种双重面向也引发思考——**当一种货币的主要用途集中在黑产和投机领域时，它究竟是市场自发最优选择，还是金融体系漏洞的产物？**有评论指出：“一种货币使用者越多理论上是好事，但如果用途仅限于黑产和投机，是否该审视一下加密货币的初心？”jiemian.com。哈耶克或许会辩称，市场选择未必总是道德的选择，竞争出的胜者只是满足了当下参与者利益。然而从社会治理角度，USDT充当“地下央行”的崛起无疑对传统金融和法治形成了冲击。

另一个哈耶克式的问题在于：USDT并非去中心的货币，它依赖于中心化发行方维持锚定和信用。那么市场真的在“自由”选择吗？抑或只是缺少更优选项下的无奈之举？毕竟在这些真空地带，民众和非法分子用不起波动巨大的比特币，也无法信任当地政府的货币，于是选择了一个挂钩美元且相对可靠的公司代币。这里既有对美元信誉的追随，也有对主权信用的逃离。哈耶克畅想的私人货币竞争，本质上要带来货币质量的提升。然而USDT的乱象（例如透明度问题、超发质疑）也提示我们：当私营货币变成地下秩序的基石时，同样需要新的规制之手来防范滥用和风险蔓延finlaw.pku.edu.cnodaily.news。总之，在当前全球政治经济的缝隙中，USDT如同一种“自发生长”的货币填补了真空。这既印证了市场择优原则，又提醒我们这份“择优”并非在完美竞争环境下发生，而是在各国监管套利和需求倒逼的特殊土壤中生长的异象。如何引导这类市场产物朝良性方向发展，可能是未来政策和技术需要共同回答的问题。

孙宇晨的资本博弈与华人“避政治”传统

TRON波场网络创始人孙宇晨在USDT版图中扮演着一个特殊的角色：一方面，他的商业帝国因TRX和USDT的成功而崛起；另一方面，他本人又频频以“资本玩家”的身份介入国际政治和监管博弈，行为方式与传统华人商界避政治的惯性形成鲜明对比。

传统上，海外华人企业家多奉行低调务实的哲学，聚焦经商、远离政治纷争，以求在异国他乡自保并兼顾与祖籍国的关系。然而身为90后的孙宇晨却反其道而行：他主动寻求政治舞台，不惜花重金打造个人影响力。最引人注目的是2021年末，孙宇晨出任加勒比海岛国格林纳达驻世界贸易组织（WTO）大使，成为当时全球WTO代表中唯一的中国籍90后**finance.sina.cnfinance.sina.cn**。这一消息震惊舆论：一个加密货币创业者竟以外国外交官身份出现在国际组织，许多人质疑这背后是否存在利益交易。事实上据格林纳达官方公告，孙宇晨的任命于2021年12月17日生效，授权其全权代表格国出席WTO会议finance.sina.cn。外界推测孙宇晨可能通过投资入籍等方式获取格林纳达国籍，并凭借财力和人脉获得了该国政府的委任hk01.comsohu.com。此举对孙宇晨个人而言，无疑能增加政治光环甚至潜在的外交豁免，对于波场及加密圈也提供了一层保护色。然而这种高调的政治参与在华人商界是少见的。华人社会历来有“商人不问政”的传统观念，尤其是改革开放以来的企业家更倾向于专注财富积累、避免卷入敏感政治话题。孙宇晨的举动无疑突破了这一默契，在一定程度上引起了国内官方和业界的复杂反应。

孙宇晨在国际监管环境中的“搏杀”也体现出资本逐利的游戏色彩。他多次与美国监管机构周旋：2023年3月，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）以涉嫌非法发行证券和市场操纵等罪名起诉孙宇晨及其关联公司，指控他出售TRX和BTT代币未注册、并操纵TRX市场价格finance.sina.cn。孙宇晨迅速在社交媒体上回应，称SEC的指控“毫无依据”finance.sina.cn。尽管官司缠身，他依然活跃在线，甚至在香港、新加坡等地寻求新的业务机会。一些评论将他形容为“亦正亦邪”的资本玩家：一面高举拥抱监管的旗帜（例如表示愿配合香港合规框架），另一面又被指暗地参与洗币、内幕交易等灰色操作zhuanlan.zhihu.com。这种矛盾的形象折射出加密大亨在全球治理夹缝中的生存现状：他们游走于规则边缘，既想享受合法待遇，又不放弃制度漏洞带来的暴利。这与老一辈华商“循规蹈矩，明哲保身”的信条形成了鲜明张力。

孙宇晨的“资本主义博弈行为”还体现于其善于制造话题、获取影响力的手段上。从早年拍下巴菲特午餐以3千万人民币搏出位，到高调宣布太空之旅计划，他运用资本资源为自己贴上各种标签。这些行为放在传统华商语境中，无疑显得过于张扬和高风险——过多曝光可能引来监管警惕，卷入政治则可能招致各方不满。然而孙宇晨似乎深谙全球化时代的新规则：利用资金和技术优势，他可以在多国间穿梭套利，身份可以是企业家、投资人、外交代表多重转换。这种“去中国化”的跨国身份策略，某种程度上也是对华人避政治传统的一种挑战。他选择直接参与政治博弈（哪怕是小国政治），而非像多数同行那样退居幕后来影响政策。结果是，他个人的冒进举动有时会反噬企业形象。例如，格林纳达政局变动后新政府迅速撤销了孙宇晨的大使任命（原先支持他的政党在2022年6月选举中下台）finance.sina.cnfinance.sina.cn。孙宇晨在WTO露脸不满半年便失去了外交官身份，这场“政治投资”得失几何尚难定论，但至少证明了商人染指政治所需承担的不确定性。

可以说，孙宇晨身上凝聚了中国互联网时代新贵与传统华人商贾思想的冲突。一方面，他具备全球视野和冒险精神，敢于用资本开道，在国际舞台为自己和旗下加密帝国博取合法性和话语权。另一方面，这种高调参与公共事务的做法容易触碰红线，不仅引来美国SEC等强力部门的围剿，也可能在中国官方那里被视为“离经叛道”。毕竟，中国政府对加密货币一直态度谨慎，孙宇晨早在2019年就曾因出境风波被传与监管有摩擦。从华人社会心理看，孙宇晨的特立独行也引发两极评价：支持者称其为新时代华人敢于争取国际地位的代表，质疑者则认为他“精致利己”，没有国家认同，在资本游戏中随时可以抛弃身份立场。这也正是传统“避政治”思维与新兴“全球公民”意识的碰撞。**孙宇晨现象提醒我们：**在加密货币这个去中心化的疆场上，华人创业者开始探索新的生存之道，不再满足于做隐形的财富玩家，而是试图塑造规则、影响格局。但个人的棋局再精彩，也要面对大国博弈和法律高墙的制约。孙宇晨能否在资本与政治的夹缝中继续腾挪，将在很大程度上影响波场乃至华语加密圈的未来走向。

结论

基于现有调查与公开资料的分析，我们可以看到USDT（特别是波场TRC20网络上的USDT）正深刻融入华人地下跨境犯罪经济的血脉。从东南亚猖獗的电信诈骗、网络赌场，到跨境毒品和人口贩卖交易，USDT提供了一个高效且去中心化的结算网络，使不法资金得以脱离传统金融监管的视线高速流转news.sina.cnfollowin.io。在灰色金融世界中，业界用“黑U”“灰U”来识别USDT资金的干净程度，提醒参与者谨防踩雷涉罪aicoin.combinance.com。中国执法部门针对这类涉案加密资产已开始摸索行之有效的追踪和处置机制，包括引入区块链分析工具、完善司法处置规范等cn.tradingview.comnews.sina.cn。与此同时，地下产业大规模使用的imToken等手机钱包成为灰产资金流动的关键环节，体现出技术双刃剑的效应：去中心化工具在便利正常用户的同时也被不法分子所利用。更宏观地看，USDT在无主监管地带的泛滥从一方面印证了市场自发选择的力量，如同哈耶克预言的私人货币在特定环境胜出法币followin.io。但这种“胜利”伴随着巨大社会风险和治理挑战，呼唤着国际协作的新对策。

最后，孙宇晨的个人轨迹为我们提供了另一个观察维度：作为TRON/USDT生态的缔造者之一，他在全球舞台上以资本为筹码参与政治和规则博弈，反映出加密时代华人商人的新冒险精神，也揭示了其与传统价值观的冲突finance.sina.cn。USDT及其背后的波场网络，从来不只是冰冷的技术和数字，它深嵌于现实的政治经济土壤之中。在中国与世界交汇的灰色地带，USDT既是工具也是产物，既成全了地下经济的壮大也倒逼着监管升级与国际合作。未来的犯罪打击和金融治理，必须正视这样一种数字货币所带来的复杂影响。从学术和执法实践角度出发，我们应持续关注USDT等稳定币的流向，完善跨境资金监测和司法处置机制。同时，也要思考如何引导加密货币回归合法正轨，让其真正服务实体经济而非滋养犯罪网络。在法制与市场的拉锯中，或许唯有全球共同努力，方能既不扼杀技术创新，又能织密法网，让USDT不再成为法外之地的肆意横财之源。正如中国公安大学的专家所言：“妖怪一旦放出瓶子，就会产生不可逆的影响”jiemian.com。USDT这只从瓶中放出的“魔灵”，唯有在阳光下接受规范和引导，才能避免成为彻底失控的风险之源。各国监管者和行业从业者正面临一次前所未有的考验：如何驾驭这个时代的双刃剑，在保障金融安全的同时，释放技术进步的正面价值。我们拭目以待这一进程的演变，也期待看到地下黑产不再有滋生的温床。

参考文献：

1. 胡翼龙, 等. 区块链技术的阴暗面：涉币犯罪与法币犯罪的边界正被打破. 中国人民公安大学讲座纪要geekpark.netgeekpark.net.

2. 币市雷达. 黑U真的存在吗？正确使用USDT的方式. CoinsRadar专栏binance.combinance.com.

3. PANews深度. 明知是黑U还去买？警惕跑分套利骗局. AiCoin文章aicoin.comaicoin.com.

4. 佚名. 柬埔寨：190亿美元加密货币诈骗网络的中心. HRC报告摘要binance.combinance.com.

5. 昭化区人民法院. 为西港电诈团伙银河集团洗钱超2000万，国内40人被判刑. 新闻报道sohu.comsohu.com.

6. 腾讯新闻《我在柬埔寨》. 红通逃犯柬埔寨绑架勒索同胞涉诈骗洗钱，在泰国被捕. 福建新闻报道news.qq.comnews.qq.com.

7. Web3Caff链上分析. 柬埔寨汇旺集团遭泰达冻结2962万USDT事件分析. web3caff.comweb3caff.com.

8. SCMP / 南华早报. USDT已成为柬埔寨地下经济活动的主要手段. 跟踪报道followin.iofollowin.io.

9. TradingView新闻. 中国涉案加密资产处置新规初现端倪？cn.tradingview.comcn.tradingview.com.

10. 新浪科技. 孙宇晨格林纳达外交官身份被撤回finance.sina.cnfinance.sina.cn.

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind Truth Social and other Trump-branded digital platforms, is planning to raise $2.5 billion to build one of the largest bitcoin treasuries among public companies.

The deal involves the sale of approximately $1.5 billion in common stock and $1.0 billion in convertible senior secured notes.

According to the company, the offering is expected to close by the end of May, pending standard closing conditions.

Devin Nunes, CEO of Trump Media, said the investment in bitcoin is a big part of the company’s long-term plan.

“We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom,” Nunes said.

“This investment will help defend our Company against harassment and discrimination by financial institutions, which plague many Americans and U.S. firms.”

He added that the bitcoin treasury will be used to create new synergies across the company’s platforms including Truth Social, Truth+, and the upcoming financial tech brand Truth.Fi.

“It’s a big step forward in the company’s plans to evolve into a holding company by acquiring additional profit-generating, crown jewel assets consistent with America First principles,” Nunes said.

The $2.5 billion raise will come from about 50 institutional investors. The $1 billion in convertible notes will have 0% interest and be convertible into shares at a 35% premium.

TMTG’s current liquid assets, including cash and short-term investments, are $759 million as of the end of the first quarter of 2025. With this new funding, the company’s liquid assets will be over $3 billion.

Custody of the bitcoin treasury will be handled by Crypto.com and Anchorage Digital. They will manage and store the digital assets.

Earlier this week The Financial Times reported Trump Media was planning to raise $3 billion for digital assets acquisitions.

The article said the funds would be used to buy bitcoin and other digital assets, and an announcement could come before a major related event in Las Vegas.

Related: Bitcoin 2025 Conference Kicks off in Las Vegas Today

Trump Media denied the FT report. In a statement, the company said, “Apparently the Financial Times has dumb writers listening to even dumber sources.”

There was no further comment. However, the official $2.5 billion figure, which was announced shortly after by Trump Media through a press release, aligns with its actual filing and investor communication.

Trump Media’s official announcement

This comes at a time when the Trump family and political allies are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin.

President Donald Trump who is now back in office since the 2025 election, has said he wants to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.”

Trump Media is also working on retail bitcoin investment products including ETFs aligned with America First policies.

These products will make bitcoin more accessible to retail investors and support pro-Trump financial initiatives.

But not everyone is happy.

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren recently expressed concerns about Trump Media’s Bitcoin plans. She asked U.S. regulators to clarify their oversight of digital-asset ETFs, warning of investor risk.

Industry insiders are comparing Trump Media’s plans to Strategy (MSTR) which has built a multi-billion dollar bitcoin treasury over the last year. They used stock and bond sales to fund their bitcoin purchases.

@ 553b8217:e6e84118

The Lightning Network is a revolutionary layer-2 solution built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain, designed to enhance transaction speed, reduce costs, and improve scalability. By integrating with Bitcoin wallets, the Lightning Network significantly improves user experience, making Bitcoin more practical for everyday payments. Here’s how it benefits both wallets and users.

A.Faster Transactions - Traditional Bitcoin transactions can take 10 minutes or more to confirm, especially during network congestion.
- The Lightning Network enables near-instant transactions (often under a second), making Bitcoin wallets ideal for real-time payments like buying coffee or tipping content creators .

B.Lower Fees - On-chain Bitcoin transactions can have high fees during peak times, sometimes exceeding $50.
- Lightning Network transactions cost a fraction of a cent, making micropayments (even as small as a few satoshis) economically viable .

C.Enhanced Scalability - Bitcoin’s base layer processes only 7 transactions per second (TPS),limiting its use for mass adoption.
- The Lightning Network can theoretically handle millions of TPS,allowing wallets to support high-volume transactions without clogging the blockchain .

D. Improved Privacy - On-chain Bitcoin transactions are publicly recorded, exposing user activity.
- Lightning transactions occur off-chain, reducing visibility and enhancing privacy for wallet users .

E. Better User Experience - Lightning-integrated wallets (e.g., Phoenix, Wallet of Satoshi, BlueWallet) automate complex processes like channel management, making it easy for beginners to send/receive Bitcoin instantly .
- Features like Lightning Addresses(e.g., user@wallet.com) simplify payments, replacing long blockchain addresses .

F. New Use Cases - Enables micropayments for streaming services, pay-per-minute content, and gaming.
- Supports cross-border remittances with minimal fees, benefiting unbanked populations .

Therefore By integrating the Lightning Network, Bitcoin wallets become faster, cheaper, and more scalable, unlocking Bitcoin’s potential as a global payment system. Whether for daily spending or innovative financial applications, the Lightning Network is transforming how users interact with Bitcoin wallets.

bitcoin #lightingnetwork #bitcoinwallet #blochchain

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

via nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqy0hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttjv4kxz7fwvf5hgcm0d9hzumnfde4xzqpq85h9z5yxn8uc7retm0n6gkm88358lejzparxms5kmy9epr236k2qtyz2zr

A lot of the focus over the last couple of months has been on the emergence of Strategy competitors in public markets looking to build sizable bitcoin treasuries and attract investors of all shapes and sizes to drive shareholder value. The other big topic in the bitcoin development world has been around OP_RETURN and the debate over whether or not the amount of data that can be shoved into a bitcoin transaction should be decided by the dominant implementation.

A topic that is just as, if not more, important that is not getting enough appreciation is the discussion around open source bitcoin developers and the lingering effects of the Biden administration's attack on Samourai Wallet and Tornado Cash. If you read our friend Matt Corallo's tweet above, you'll notice that the lingering effects are such that even though the Trump administration has made concerted efforts to reverse the effects of Operation Chokepoint 2.0 that were levied by the Biden administration, Elizabeth Warren, and her friends at the Treasury and SEC - it is imperative that we enshrine into law the rights of open source developers to build products and services that enable individuals to self-custody bitcoin and use it in a peer-to-peer fashion without the threat of getting thrown in jail cell.

As it stands today, the only assurances that we have are from an administration that is overtly in favor of the proliferation of bitcoin in the United States. There is nothing in place to stop the next administration or another down the line from reverting to Biden-era lawfare that puts thousands of bitcoin developers around the world at risk of being sent into a cage because the government doesn't like how some users leverage the code they write. To make sure that this isn't a problem down the line it is imperative that we pass the Blockchain Regulatory Clarity Act, which would not hold bitcoin developers liable for the ways in which end users leverage their tools.

Not only is this an act that would protect developers from pernicious government officials targeting them when end users use their technology in a way that doesn't make the government happy, it will also protect YOU, the end user, looking to transact in a peer-to-peer fashion and leverage all of the incredible properties of bitcoin the way they were meant to be. If the developers are not protected, they will not be able to build the technology that enables you to leverage bitcoin.

So do your part and go to saveourwallets.org. Reach out to your local representatives in Congress and Senators and make some noise. Let them know that this is something that you care deeply about and that they should not only pay attention to this bill but push it forward and enshrine it into law as quickly as possible.

There are currently many developers either behind bars or under house arrest for developing software that gives you the ability to use Bitcoin in a self-sovereign fashion and use it in a privacy-preserving way. Financial privacy isn't a crime. It is an inalienable human right that should be protected at all cost. The enshrinement of this inalienable right into law is way past due.

#FreeSamourai #FreeRoman

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MicroStrategy Copycats See Speculative Premiums Fade - via X

Square Tests Bitcoin Payments, Lightning Yields Beat DeFi - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Bitfinex Moves $731M Bitcoin to Jack Mallers' Fund - via X

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Final thought...

Should I join a country club?

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