@ f0fcbea6:7e059469

Autores Clássicos e Antigos

• Homero (século IX a.C.?) — Ilíada, Odisseia
• Tucídides (c. 460-400 a.C.) — História da Guerra do Peloponeso
• Platão (c. 427-347 a.C.) — República, Banquete, Fédon, Mênon, Apologia de Sócrates, Fedro, Górgias
• Aristóteles (c. 384-322 a.C.) — Órganon, Física, Metafísica, Da Alma, Ética a Nicômaco, Política, Retórica, Poética
• Virgílio (70-19 a.C.) — Eneida
• Marco Aurélio (121-180) — Meditações
• Santo Agostinho (354-430) — Sobre o Ensino, Confissões, A Cidade de Deus, A Doutrina Cristã
• Boécio (480-525) — A Consolação da Filosofia
• Santo Tomás de Aquino (c. 1225-1274) — Suma Teológica
• Dante Alighieri (1265-1321) — Divina Comédia

Renascimento e Idade Moderna

• Nicolau Maquiavel (1469-1527) — O Príncipe
• Luís de Camões (1524-1580) — Os Lusíadas, Sonetos
• Miguel de Cervantes (1547-1616) — Dom Quixote
• William Shakespeare (1564-1616) — Romeu e Julieta, Hamlet, Macbeth, Otelo, Rei Lear, Henrique IV, Henrique V, Henrique VI, Henrique VIII, A Comédia dos Erros, Tito Andrônico, Príncipe de Tiro, Cimbelino, A Megera Domada, O Mercador de Veneza, Ricardo II, Ricardo III, Muito Barulho por Nada, Júlio César, Noite de Reis, Os Dois Cavaleiros de Verona, Conto do Inverno, Sonhos de uma Noite de Verão, As Alegres Comadres de Windsor, Trólio e Créssida, Medida por Medida, Coriolano, Antônio e Cleópatra, A Tempestade
• Ésquilo (525-456 a.C., antiguidade grega, mas citado junto) — Prometeu Acorrentado, Orestéia/As Eumênides
• Sófocles (496-406 a.C.) — Édipo Rei, Antígona

Literatura e Filosofia Contemporânea

• Fiódor Dostoiévski (1821-1881) — Crime e Castigo, Os Irmãos Karamázov, Os Demônios, O Idiota, Notas do Subsolo
• Franz Kafka (1883-1924) — A Metamorfose, O Processo, O Castelo
• Albert Camus (1913-1960) — O Estrangeiro
• Aldous Huxley (1894-1963) — Admirável Mundo Novo, A Ilha
• James Joyce (1882-1941) — Retrato do Artista Quando Jovem, Ulisses
• George Orwell (1903-1950) — A Revolução dos Bichos, 1984
• Machado de Assis (1839-1908) — Memórias Póstumas de Brás Cubas, O Alienista
• Thomas Mann (1875-1955) — Morte em Veneza, Doutor Fausto, A Montanha Mágica
• Henrik Ibsen (1828-1906) — O Pato Selvagem, Um Inimigo do Povo
• Stendhal (1783-1842) — O Vermelho e o Negro, A Cartuxa de Parma
• Viktor Frankl (1905-1997) — Em Busca de Sentido
• J.R.R. Tolkien (1892-1973) — O Hobbit, O Senhor dos Anéis
• Luigi Pirandello (1867-1936) — Seis Personagens à Procura de um Autor, O Falecido Matias Pascal
• Samuel Beckett (1906-1989) — Esperando Godot
• René Guénon (1886-1951) — A Crise do Mundo Moderno, O Reino da Quantidade
• G. K. Chesterton (1874-1936) — Ortodoxia
• Richard Wagner (1813-1883) — Tristão e Isolda
• Honoré de Balzac (1799-1850) — Ilusões Perdidas, Eugénie Grandet
• Jacob Wassermann (1873-1934) — O Processo Maurizius
• Nikolai Gogol (1809-1852) — Almas Mortas, O Inspetor Geral
• Daniel Defoe (1660-1731) — Moll Flanders
• Mortimer J. Adler (1902-2001) — Como Ler um Livro
• Gustave Flaubert (1821-1880) — Madame Bovary
• Hermann Hesse (1877-1962) — O Jogo das Contas de Vidro
• Richard Wagner (1813-1883) — Tristão e Isolda
• Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832) — Fausto (Primeiro), Os Anos de Aprendizado de Wilhelm Meister
• Jacques Benda — A Traição dos Intelectuais

@ 527337d5:93e9525e

Experiment Plan for Text Similarity Comparison Algorithms (Revised v3)

1. Introduction

1.1. Research Background and Objectives

This research aims to evaluate the performance of various algorithms for comparing the similarity between individual page texts extracted from a specific technical document (in this experiment, the content of the Tailwind CSS documentation site). Initially, we considered dividing the text into 250-word chunks. However, due to the abundance of Markdown and code in the target document, meaningful chunking proved tobe cumbersome. Therefore, we decided to use the entire text extracted from each page as the unit of comparison.

This study will systematically compare and examine combinations of different "representation methods" and "comparison methods" from multiple perspectives: ease of implementation, processing speed, memory consumption, and accuracy of similarity judgment. A particular focus will be on elucidating the effectiveness of information-based NCD (Normalized Compression Distance) and vector embedding-based methods, which are planned for future evaluation.

1.2. Report Structure

This report will first describe the experimental data and its preprocessing methods. Next, it will define in detail the representation methods and comparison methods that form the axes of evaluation, and present specific experimental cases combining them. After presenting the results and discussion of initial experiments using NCD, it will describe the metrics for evaluating each experimental case, specific experimental procedures, and the expected outcomes and future prospects of this research.

2. Experimental Data

• Target Content: Individual HTML pages from the Tailwind CSS documentation site (tailwindcss.com).
• Data Unit: The entire text of each page, extracted from HTML files using the html2text command and further processed to remove control characters using the sed command. This serves as the basic unit of comparison in this experiment.
• Data Storage Location: The extracted and preprocessed text files are stored locally under the ./tailwindcss.com directory, maintaining the original file structure.
• Language: English
• Example Search Query: A representative search query for this experiment is "Utilities for controlling how a background image behaves when scrolling." (Multiple queries and their expected similar pages may be used for more robust evaluation).
• Example Expected Similar Page: For the query above, /docs/background-attachment is expected to be the most semantically similar page.

3. Experimental Design

This experiment is designed by dividing the process of evaluating text similarity into two main axes: "Representation Methods" and "Comparison Methods."

3.1. Representation Methods (Text Quantification/Vectorization)

1. Naive (Raw Text / Full Page Text)

   • Method: Use the entire preprocessed text extracted from each document page as raw string data, without special transformations.
   • Objective: Serve as a direct input for information-based comparison methods like NCD and as a baseline comparison for more advanced representation methods to be evaluated later.

2. (Future Experiment) Vector Embedding via Gemini API (Embedding-Gemini)

   • Method: Utilize Google's Gemini API (models/text-embedding-004) to convert the entire text of each page into high-dimensional dense vectors (Embeddings).
   • Objective: Evaluate the performance of context-rich vector representations generated by a state-of-the-art large language model.

3. (Future Experiment) Vector Embedding via Local Lightweight Model (Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF)

   • Method: Run a GGUF quantized version of the pre-trained all-MiniLM-L6-v2 model (all-MiniLM-L6-v2-Q5_K_M.gguf) in a local environment to convert the entire text of each page into vector representations. GGUF format offers benefits like smaller model size and potentially faster CPU inference.
   • Objective: Evaluate the performance of a widely used open-source lightweight model (quantized version) in comparison to API-based large-scale models and domain-specific learned models.

4. (Future Experiment) Extraction of Internal Feature Vectors via Mathematica (Embedding-MMA)

   • Method: Use the entire page texts from the target document set as input. Employ Mathematica's neural network framework to first pass each page text through an Embedding Layer. Apply L2 normalization to the resulting vectors, followed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensionality to approximately 100 dimensions. This final vector will be the feature vector. This pipeline aims to create dense, normalized representations specific to the document corpus, with PCA helping to capture the most significant variance in a lower-dimensional space, potentially improving efficiency and reducing noise. The choice of an Embedding Layer trained or fine-tuned on the corpus, followed by PCA, seeks to balance domain-specificity with robust dimensionality reduction.
   • Objective: Evaluate the performance of vector representations processed or specialized for the target document set.

3.2. Comparison Methods (Distance/Similarity Calculation between Representations)

1. NCD (Normalized Compression Distance)

   • Applicable to: Naive (Full Page Text)
   • Method: For two data objects x (query) and y (document page text), calculate NCD(x,y) = (C(xy) - min(C(x), C(y))) / max(C(x), C(y)). Here, C(s) is the size (e.g., byte length) of data s after compression with a specific algorithm, and C(xy) is the size of the concatenated data x and y after compression. A value closer to 0 indicates higher similarity.
   • Compression Algorithms to Compare: DEFLATE (gzip), bzip2, LZMA, XZ, Zstandard (zstd), LZO, Snappy, LZ4 (as used in the user-provided script).
   • Objective: Evaluate similarity from an information-theoretic perspective based on data commonality and redundancy. Compare the impact of different compression algorithms on NCD results.

2. (Future Experiment) Cosine Similarity

   • Applicable to: Embedding-Gemini, Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF, Embedding-MMA
   • Method: Calculate the cosine of the angle between two vectors.
   • Objective: Standard similarity evaluation based on the directionality (semantic closeness) of vector representations.

3. (Future Experiment) Euclidean Distance

   • Applicable to: Embedding-Gemini, Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF, Embedding-MMA
   • Method: Calculate the straight-line distance between two vectors in a multidimensional space.
   • Objective: Similarity evaluation based on the absolute positional relationship of vector representations.

4. (Future Experiment) Manhattan Distance (L1 Distance)

   • Applicable to: Embedding-Gemini, Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF, Embedding-MMA
   • Method: Calculate the sum of the absolute differences of their Cartesian coordinates.
   • Objective: Similarity evaluation based on axis-aligned travel distance, differing from Euclidean distance.

5. (Future Experiment) Mahalanobis Distance

   • Applicable to: Embedding-Gemini, Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF, Embedding-MMA
   • Method: Calculate the distance between two vectors considering the covariance of the data. This provides a distance metric that accounts for the scale differences and correlations of each feature (vector dimension).
   • Objective: More robust similarity evaluation that considers the structure (correlation) of the feature space.

3.3. Experimental Cases (Initial NCD Experiments and Future Expansion)

3.3.1. Initial Experiments Conducted (NCD)

The following experimental cases were conducted using the user-provided script. The representation method was "Naive (Full Page Text)."

| No. | Representation Method | Comparison Method (Distance/Similarity Metric) | Notes | | :-: | :---------------------- | :--------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------- | | 1 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (gzip/DEFLATE) | One of the baselines | | 2 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (bzip2) | Compression method comparison | | 3 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (lzma) | Compression method comparison | | 4 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (xz) | Compression method comparison | | 5 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (zstd) | Compression method comparison | | 6 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (lzop) | Compression method comparison | | 7 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (snappy) | Compression method comparison | | 8 | Naive (Full Page Text) | NCD (lz4) | Compression method comparison |

3.3.2. Future Experimental Plan (Vector Embedding)

| No. | Representation Method | Comparison Method (Distance/Similarity Metric) | Notes | | :--: | :---------------------- | :--------------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------- | | 9 | Embedding-Gemini | Cosine Similarity | Standard vector similarity evaluation | | 10 | Embedding-Gemini | Euclidean Distance | Standard vector similarity evaluation | | 11 | Embedding-Gemini | Manhattan Distance | Axis-aligned distance similarity eval. | | 12 | Embedding-Gemini | Mahalanobis Distance | Distance considering feature structure | | 13 | Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF | Cosine Similarity | Evaluation of local lightweight model | | 14 | Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF | Euclidean Distance | Evaluation of local lightweight model | | 15 | Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF | Manhattan Distance | Evaluation of local lightweight model | | 16 | Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF | Mahalanobis Distance | Evaluation of local lightweight model | | 17 | Embedding-MMA | Cosine Similarity | Eval. of domain-specific MMA model | | 18 | Embedding-MMA | Euclidean Distance | Eval. of domain-specific MMA model | | 19 | Embedding-MMA | Manhattan Distance | Eval. of domain-specific MMA model | | 20 | Embedding-MMA | Mahalanobis Distance | Eval. of domain-specific MMA model |

4. Results and Discussion of Initial NCD Experiments (Based on User-Provided Information)

4.1. Execution Overview

The user employed provided Python scripts (main.py, comparison.py) to calculate NCD between a search query and the entire text extracted from each HTML page in the ./tailwindcss.com directory. main.py invoked comparison.py with various compression commands (gzip, bzip2, lzma, xz, zstd, lzop, lz4). comparison.py then used the specified command-line compression tools to compute NCD scores and output the results to CSV files.

Search Query: "Utilities for controlling how a background image behaves when scrolling." Expected Similar Page: /docs/background-attachment

4.2. Key Results

The pages judged as most similar (lowest NCD score) to the query for each compression algorithm were as follows (based on user-provided sorted results):

• Zstandard (zstd): ./tailwindcss.com/docs/background-attachment (Score: 0.973...)
• LZ4: ./tailwindcss.com/docs/background-attachment (Score: 0.976...)
• XZ: ./tailwindcss.com/docs/background-origin (Score: 0.946...)
• LZMA: ./tailwindcss.com/docs/background-origin (Score: 0.966...)
• gzip (DEFLATE): ./tailwindcss.com/docs/scroll-behavior (Score: 0.969...)
• LZO: ./tailwindcss.com/docs/scroll-behavior (Score: 0.955...)
• bzip2: ./tailwindcss.com/docs/mask-clip (Score: 0.958...)

4.3. Initial Discussion

• Variation in Results by Compression Algorithm: It was confirmed that the document judged most similar to the query varies depending on the compression algorithm used. This is likely due to the differing abilities of each algorithm to capture various types of redundancy and patterns within the text.
• Alignment with Expected Results: When using Zstandard and LZ4, the expected page (/docs/background-attachment) was judged as most similar. This suggests these compression algorithms may have relatively effectively captured the information-theoretic commonality between the query and the target document in this instance.
• Range of NCD Scores: The reported NCD scores were generally close to 1.0. This may be due to the relatively short length of the search query compared to the full-page documents, meaning the query text contributes less to the overall compressibility when concatenated. However, relative differences were still captured, enabling ranking.
• Validity of Full-Page Comparison: Full-page comparison was chosen due to the difficulty of chunking content rich in Markdown and code. While this approach simplifies preprocessing, it may also be influenced by the overall structure of the page, including common headers and footers.

This initial experiment indicates that NCD can function as an indicator of text similarity and that the choice of compression algorithm is crucial.

5. Evaluation Metrics (Including Future Experiments)

1. Accuracy of Similarity Scores:

   • Ground Truth Preparation: A small, diverse subset of page pairs (e.g., 50-100 pairs) will be selected. For each pair, at least two evaluators familiar with the Tailwind CSS documentation will independently assign a similarity score on a 5-point Likert scale (1=Not similar, 5=Very similar). Inter-evaluator reliability (e.g., using Krippendorff's Alpha) will be calculated. Disagreements will be resolved through discussion to create a consensus ground truth dataset. If resource-constrained, a single-evaluator approach with clear, predefined criteria will be used, acknowledging this limitation. Alternatively, page pairs likely to be similar will be selected based on internal references or chapter structure within the document.
   • Evaluation Metrics: Ranking evaluation (Precision@k, Recall@k, MAP: Mean Average Precision), correlation analysis (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient with human judgments), classification evaluation (AUC-ROC, F1-score, assuming appropriate thresholding).

2. Processing Speed:

   • Average time to calculate similarity for a page pair, total calculation time for all page pairs (or a large sampled set), and representation generation time (API call time, local model inference time, MMA processing time).

3. Memory Consumption:

   • Model size (MiniLM-GGUF, MMA model), data representation size, and peak runtime memory usage.

4. Ease of Implementation:

   • Qualitative assessment of setup ease, lines of code, required libraries, difficulty of parameter tuning, and documentation quality. This will be summarized for each approach (e.g., using a rubric or a comparative narrative) considering factors like:
     • Setup Complexity: (e.g., API key acquisition vs. local model download & environment setup vs. full model training pipeline in Mathematica).
     • Code Complexity: Estimated lines of core logic, reliance on external vs. standard libraries.
     • Parameter Sensitivity: Number of key hyperparameters requiring tuning and the perceived difficulty of finding good settings.
     • Documentation & Community Support: Availability and clarity of official documentation and community resources (e.g., forums, GitHub issues).

6. Experimental Procedure (Including Future Experiments)

1. Data Preparation:

   • Prepare HTML files of the target document in the ./tailwindcss.com directory.
   • (For NCD) Extract and preprocess full-page plain text from each HTML file using html2text and sed (as previously done by the user).
   • (For Vector Embedding) Use the same preprocessed full-page plain text.
   • Create ground truth data for accuracy evaluation as described in Section 5.1.

2. Implementation and Execution of Representation Methods:

   • Naive: Use the preprocessed page text directly.
   • Embedding-Gemini: Use Python's requests library or similar to send each page text to the Gemini API (models/text-embedding-004) and retrieve/store the vector representations.
   • Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF: Use appropriate libraries (e.g., ctransformers, or sentence-transformers combined with llama-cpp-python) to load the all-MiniLM-L6-v2-Q5_K_M.gguf model. Input each page text to extract and store vector representations.
   • Embedding-MMA: In Mathematica, apply an Embedding Layer to each page text, followed by L2 normalization and PCA dimensionality reduction (to approx. 100 dimensions), then extract and store the vector representations.

3. Implementation and Execution of Comparison Methods:

   • NCD: Refer to the user-provided Python scripts (main.py, comparison.py) to call various command-line compression tools for NCD calculation. Alternatively, extend this to directly use Python's compression libraries for better control and efficiency.
   • Cosine Similarity, Euclidean Distance, Manhattan Distance: Implement using standard math libraries (e.g., Python's NumPy, SciPy).
   • Mahalanobis Distance: Implement using scipy.spatial.distance.mahalanobis. Requires pre-calculation of the covariance matrix (or its inverse) from the entire dataset of vectors for each embedding type.

4. Evaluation Execution:

   • Calculate similarity (or distance) scores between the search query (and potentially between page pairs for ground truth evaluation) and all document pages for each experimental case.
   • Measure processing speed and memory consumption.
   • Calculate accuracy metrics using the computed similarity scores and ground truth data.
   • Record and evaluate the ease of implementation.

5. Result Aggregation and Analysis:

   • Compile the obtained evaluation metrics into tables and graphs for comparative analysis of each method's characteristics.

Experimental Environment (Assumed)

• Hardware: (e.g., CPU: Intel Core i7-10700, Memory: 32GB RAM, GPU: NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3070 8GB - specify if GPU is used for MiniLM or MMA)
• Software: (e.g., OS: Linux (Ubuntu, etc.), Programming Language: Python 3.x (with versions for key libraries like NumPy, SciPy, requests, ctransformers, etc.), Mathematica 13.x, specific versions of command-line compression tools if used directly)

7. Expected Outcomes and Future Outlook

This research (including initial NCD experiments and future vector embedding experiments) is expected to yield the following outcomes:

• Clarification of the Impact of Compression Algorithms on NCD: As indicated by initial experiments, the choice of compression algorithm significantly affects similarity judgments. Further validation with more diverse data and queries will allow for a deeper understanding of each algorithm's characteristics.
• Performance Characteristics of Various Methods on Full-Page Text: To clarify how NCD and various vector embedding methods perform in terms of accuracy, speed, and resource consumption when applied to entire page texts.
• Comparison of Local and API-Based Models: In future vector embedding experiments, to compare the performance, speed, and resource efficiency of Embedding-MiniLM-GGUF (local, quantized) and Embedding-Gemini (API, large-scale) to identify practical trade-offs.
• Evaluation of Domain-Specific Embedding Effectiveness: To assess how well Embedding-MMA, processed or tuned for a single technical document set, performs compared to general-purpose models.
• Provision of Practical Insights: To offer guidelines for selecting appropriate similarity comparison approaches based on text characteristics (e.g., Markdown/code content) and system requirements (e.g., ease of preprocessing, emphasis on accuracy vs. speed).

8. Future Challenges

• Ensuring Quality of Ground Truth Data: Evaluating full-page similarity can be more subjective than chunk-level evaluation, making the creation of high-quality ground truth data challenging. Establishing clear annotation guidelines and measuring inter-annotator agreement will be crucial.
• Hyperparameter Optimization: Many methods involve tunable parameters (e.g., Embedding-MMA model structure, PCA dimensionality, MiniLM-GGUF inference parameters), the optimization of which may be beyond the scope of this initial study. The impact of default vs. tuned parameters could be noted.
• Noise in Full-Page Comparison: Full-page texts may contain common navigational elements or boilerplate text that could act as noise in similarity judgments. Strategies to mitigate this (e.g., more advanced text extraction, or methods robust to such noise) could be a future research direction.
• Input Length Limitations of Vector Embedding Models: Very long page texts might exceed the input length limits of some vector embedding models, requiring strategies for handling. These might include:
  • Truncation: Using only the initial N tokens of each page, which is simple but may lose crucial information.
  • Summarization: Employing an abstractive or extractive summarization model to create a condensed version of the page, which could preserve key information but adds another layer of processing and potential information loss/bias.
  • Chunking and Averaging/Pooling: Dividing long pages into manageable chunks, embedding each chunk, and then aggregating these chunk embeddings (e.g., by averaging) to get a single page vector. This approach needs careful consideration of how chunks are defined and aggregated.
  • Utilizing Long-Context Models: If available and feasible, leveraging embedding models specifically designed for longer sequences. The chosen strategy will be documented, and its potential impact on results acknowledged.

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Hackathon 概述

ETH Dublin 2025 黑客松圆满落幕，活动共吸引 84 名开发者参与，共有 31 个项目通过审核。活动核心是借助多家赞助商技术，打造具有影响力的区块链解决方案。活动鼓励参与者组建技能多元的平衡团队，运用技术工具及赞助商支持 —— 如 Chainlink 进行数据验证、Ledger 保障安全、Filecoin 提供存储方案等。

多个项目聚焦社会影响领域：ÉireEncrypt 致力于开发符合 GDPR 合规要求的隐私保护区块链工具；SafeRoads Ireland 则通过智能合约推动安全驾驶。此外，部分项目借助以太坊实现租金管控与去中心化住房市场，还有以移民为主题的数字解决方案促进社区融合，充分展现区块链技术在解决隐私保护、公共安全、教育改革等实际问题中的潜力。

总体而言，ETH Dublin 2025 黑客松不仅促进了开发者与合作伙伴的协作，更激发了诸多借助区块链技术创造社会价值的创新项目。

Hackathon 获奖者

奖项得主

• 一等奖: RecEth
  RecEth 通过提供电子邮件确认和清晰的收据，增强了用户对加密交易的信任，将用户体验与传统支付系统的透明度相对齐。
• 二等奖: Latinum
  Latinum 作为支付中间件，允许MCP构建者通过兼容钱包实现由代理发起的交易来实现服务器货币化，简化了货币化过程。
• 三等奖: Fundraisely
  FundRaisely 利用区块链技术帮助慈善机构进行合法合规的筹款，以及透明的审计，确保捐款流程的清晰和负责。

欲了解所有项目的更多信息，请访问这里。

关于组织者

ETH Ireland

ETH Ireland 致力于区块链技术的创新和发展。该组织在Ethereum方面有着丰富的专业知识，通过举办会议和工作坊促进区块链教育和社区参与。ETH Ireland 的使命是扩大区块链知识普及，推广去中心化技术到各个领域。

@ ef53426a:7e988851

Saturday 9AM It’s a chilly Saturday morning in Warsaw, and I don’t want to get out of bed. This is not because of the hangover; it’s because I feel like a failure.

The first day of Bitcoin FilmFest was a whirlwind of workshops, panels and running between stages. The pitch competition did not go my way. Another ‘pitching rabbit’ (an actual experienced film-maker) was selected to win the €3,000 of funding.

Rather than get up and search for coffee, I replay the scenes in my head. What could I have done differently? Will investors ever believe in me: I’m just a writer with no contacts in the industry. Do I have what it takes to produce a film?

Eventually, I haul myself out of bed and walk to Amondo, the festival’s morning HQ (and technically, the smallest cinema in Europe). Upon arrival, I find Bitcoin psychonaut Ioni Appelberg holding court in front of around a dozen enraptured disciples. Soon, the conversation spills out to the street to free up space for more workshops.

I attend a talk on film funding, then pay for coffee using bitcoin. I see familiar faces from the two previous nights. We compare notes on Friday night and check the day’s schedule. The morning clouds burn off, and things feel a little brighter.

The afternoon session begins just a few blocks away in the towering Palace of Culture and Science. My role in today's proceedings is to present my freedom fiction project, 21 Futures, on the community stage. Other presentations range from rap videos and advice on finding jobs in bitcoin to hosting ‘Bitcoin Walks’. This is how we are fixing the culture.

Saturday 8PM I feel a tap on my shoulder. ‘Excuse me, Mr. Philip. Your car is waiting. The Producers’ Dinner is starting soon’.

What? Me, a producer? I’ve been taking part in some panels and talks, but I assumed my benefits as a guest were limited to a comped ticket and generous goodie bag.

Soon, I am sharing a taxi with a Dubai-based journalist, a Colombian director, and the cypherpunk sponsor of the pitch competition I didn’t win.

The pierogies I dreamed of earlier that day somehow manifest (happy endings do exist), and we enjoy a raucous dinner including obligatory slivovitz.

Sunday 2AM The last few hours of blur include a bracing city-bike ride in a crew of nine attendees back to the Palace of Culture, chatting with a fellow bitcoin meetup organiser, and vaguely promising to attend a weekend rave with a crew of Polish artists and musicians on the outskirts of London.

I leave the party while it’s still in full swing. In five hours, I have to wake up to complete my Run for Hal in Marshal Edward Rydz-Śmigły Park.

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Thursday 9PM The festival kicks off in Samo Centrum on Pizza Day. I arrive in a taxi straight from a cramped flight (fix the airlines!), having not eaten for around ten hours.

The infectious sounds of softly spoken Aussie bitrocker Roger9000 pound into the damp night. I’m three beers in, being presented by the organisers to attendees like a (very tall) show pony. I try to explain more about my books, my publishing connections, my short film.

When I search for the food I ordered an hour ago, I find it has been given away. The stern-faced Polish pizza maker shrugs. ‘You not here.’

I’m so hungry I could cry (six hours of Ryanair can do that to a man). And then, a heroic Czech pleb donates half a pizza to me. Side note: this same heroic pleb accidentally locked me out of my film-funds while trying to fix a wallet bug on Sunday night.

I step out into the rain. Roger9000 reminds us we should have laser eyes well past 100k. I take a bite of pizza and life tastes good.

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The Films Side events, artists, late nights, and pitcher’s regret is all well and good, but what of the films?

My highlights included Golden Rabbit winner No More Inflation — a moving narrative with interviews from two dozen economists, visionaries, and inflation survivors.

Hotel Bitcoin, was a surprisingly funny comedy romp about a group of idiots who happen across a valuable laptop.

Revolución Bitcoin — an approachable and thorough documentary aimed to bring greater adoption in the Spanish-speaking world.

And, as a short-fiction guy, I enjoyed the short films The Man Who Wouldn’t Cry, a visit to New York’s only Somali restaurant in Finding Home.

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Sunday 7PM The award ceremony has just finished. I head to Amondo for the final time to pay for mojitos in bitcoin and say goodbye to newly made friends. I feel like I’ve met almost everyone in attendance. Are you going to BTC Prague?!? we ask as we part ways.

Of course, the best thing about any festival is the people, and BFF25 had a cast of characters worthy of any art house flick:

• The bright-eyed and confident frontwoman of the metal band Scardust
• A nostr-native artist selling his intricate canvases to the highest zapper
• A dreadlocked DJ who wears a pair of flying goggles on his head at all times
• An affable British filmmaker explaining the virtues of the word ‘chucklesome’
• A Duracell-powered organiser who seems to know every song, person, film, book, and guest at the festival.

Warsaw itself feels like it has a role to play, too. Birdsong and green parks contrast the foreboding Communist-era architecture. The weather changes faster than my mood — heavy greys transform to bright sunshine. The roads around the venue close on Sunday for a political rally. And there we are in the middle, watching our bitcoin films.

Tuesday 10AM I’m at home now, squinting at my email inbox and piles of washing, wondering when the hell I’ll find time. The festival Telegram group is still buzzing with activity. Side events like martial arts tutorials, trips to a shooting range, boat tours. 5AM photos of street graffiti, lost and found items, and people asking ‘is anyone still around?’

This was not just a film festival. BFF is truly a celebration of culture — Art. Books. Comedy. Music. Video. Talk. Connection.

All this pure signal has lifted my spirits so much that despite me being a newbie filmmaker, armed only with a biro, a couple of powerpoints and a Geyser fund page, I know I will succeed in my mission. It turns out you can just film things.

You may have attended bitcoin conferences before — you know, the ones with ‘fireside chats’, VIP areas, and overpriced merch. Bitcoin FilmFest is a moment in time. We are fixing the culture, year after year, until art can flourish again.

As fellow author Aaron Koenig commented during a panel session, ‘In twenty years, we won’t be drawing laser eyes and singing about honey badgers. Our grandchildren won’t understand the change we went through.’

Would I do it all again? Of course!

Join me next June in Warsaw.
I’ll be the tall one presenting his short animation premiere.

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Philip Charter is a full-time writer and part-time cat herder. As well as writing for bitcoin founders and companies, he runs the 21 Futures fiction project.

Find out more about theNoderoid Saga animation projecton Geyser.

@ 7e538978:a5987ab6

This article gives an overview and comparison of the various funding sources that are available for LNbits.

LNbits is compatible with many Lightning Network wallets and can be on anything from a small VPS to a raspberry Pi on your home network or the LNbits SaaS platform.

Why your funding source matters

There are trade-offs between the various funding sources, for example funding LNbits using Strike requires the user to KYC themselves and has some privacy compromises versus funding LNbits from your own LND node. However the technical barrier to entry and node maintenance of using Strike is lower than using LND.

Self-custodial vs custodial connectors

Self-custodial Funding Sources

You run the node or service, keep the keys, and may need to manage LN channels. Good if you want control and have the skills to look after a server. Examples: LND (gRPC/REST), CoreLightning, Spark.

Self-custodial funding sources with an LSP

These funding sources offer a reasonable compromise between self-custody and some privacy trade offs. Examples: Phoenixd, Breez SDK, Boltz.

Custodial (or semi-custodial) funding sources

A third party runs the node. You plug LNbits into their API. Setup is quick and costs are low, but you trust the provider with your funds and privacy. Examples: Alby, OpenNode, Blink, ZBD, LNPay or another LNbits instance.

Funding sources compared

Below is a summary of the main options and how they stack up.

LNbits Lightning Network Funding Sources Comparison Table

| Funding Source | Custodial Type | KYC Required | Technical Knowledge Needed | Node Hosting Required | Privacy Level | Liquidity Management | Ease of Setup | Maintenance Effort | Cost Implications | Scalability | Notes | |----------------------------|--------------------|---------------------|--------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------------|--------------------------|-------------------|------------------------|----------------------------------------------|-----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | LND (gRPC) | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | gRPC interface for LND; suitable for advanced integrations. | | CoreLightning (CLN) | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | Requires setting up and managing your own CLN node. | | Phoenixd | Self-custodial | ❌ | Medium | ❌ | Medium | Automatic | Moderate | Low | Minimal fees | Medium | Mobile wallet backend; suitable for mobile integrations. | | Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) | Custodial | Depends on provider | Low | ❌ | Variable | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | May incur fees | Medium | Connects via Nostr protocol; depends on provider's policies. | | Boltz | Self-custodial | ❌ | Medium | ❌ | Medium | Provider-managed | Moderate | Moderate | Minimal fees | Medium | Uses submarine swaps; connects to Boltz client. | | LND (REST) | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | REST interface for LND; suitable for web integrations. | | CoreLightning REST | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | REST interface for CLN; suitable for web integrations. | | LNbits (another instance) | Custodial | Depends on host | Low | ❌ | Variable | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | May incur hosting fees | Medium | Connects to another LNbits instance; depends on host's policies. | | Alby | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Browser extension wallet; suitable for web users. | | Breez SDK | Self-custodial | ❌ | Medium | ❌ | High | Automatic | Moderate | Low | Minimal fees | Medium | SDK for integrating Breez wallet functionalities. | | OpenNode | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Third-party service; suitable for merchants. | | Blink | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Third-party service; focuses on mobile integrations. | | ZBD | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Gaming-focused payment platform. | | Spark (CLN) | Self-custodial | ❌ | Higher | ✅ | High | Manual | Moderate | High | Infrastructure cost and channel opening fees | High | Web interface for CLN; requires Spark server setup. | | Cliche Wallet | Self-custodial | ❌ | Medium | ❌ | Medium | Manual | Moderate | Moderate | Minimal fees | Medium | Lightweight wallet; suitable for embedded systems. | | Strike | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Third-party service; suitable for quick setups. | | LNPay | Custodial | ✅ | Low | ❌ | Low | Provider-managed | Easy | Low | Transaction fees apply | Medium | Third-party service; suitable for quick setups. |

Which source suits you?

| Scenario | Good fit | Why | | ------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | | Business running its own infrastructure | LND or CoreLightning on a Dell Optiplex or other dedicated machine | Full control, high throughput, best privacy. | | Independent node runner | Spark (CLN) or LND (REST/gRPC) | You already run a node and want a clean web interface. | | Quick proof of concept | Alby, LNPay, or another hosted LNbits | No hardware needed, lets you test ideas fast. |

Run LNbits

Ready to run LNbits?

Choose a funding source, follow the guides, and start today.

LNbits

Further reading

• LNbits documentation
• LND – gRPC and REST guides
• CoreLightning – setup and Spark info
• Breez SDK
• Phoenixd
• Nostr Wallet Connect

@ 5f078e90:b2bacaa3

Frog named Gus

This is a test from Hive to Nostr, longform script, some markdown included. google link, 400 char. story.

In a lush pond, a green frog named Gus lived among lily pads. Each dawn, he croaked a cheerful tune, waking the dragonflies. One day, a heron eyed him hungrily. Gus, clever and quick, hopped beneath a broad leaf, blending perfectly. The heron, fooled, flew off. That evening, Gus sang louder, celebrating his escape. His friends—turtles and minnows—joined the chorus under the moon's glow. Gus’s courage inspired them all, proving wit outshines size. The pond thrived, with Gus as its spirited guardian, forever hopping and croaking in joy.

This was a test, please ignore.

@ 5f078e90:b2bacaa3

May 29 badger test story

h2n, bi, some md, >380

In a dusty savanna, a honey badger named Hank prowled with fearless grit. Each night, he raided beehives, dodging stings with cunning twists. One day, a lion blocked his path, roaring fiercely. Hank, unfazed, bared his teeth and charged, startling the beast. The lion fled, and Hank strutted on, claws clicking. His boldness rallied jackals and birds, who sang his tale under starry skies. Hank’s fierce heart made him the savanna’s legend, guarding its wild spirit with every fearless step.

This is just a test, please ignore.

@ 5f078e90:b2bacaa3

Gecky story - just a test

In a sun-dappled jungle, Zippy the gecko darted across a broad leaf, his emerald scales glinting. Chasing a juicy cricket, he leaped, only to slip into a pitcher plant’s slippery trap. With sticky toes, Zippy clung to the edge, heart racing. A curious frog peered in, offering a vine. Grateful, Zippy climbed out, sharing his cricket with his new friend. Under the moon’s glow, they danced on the leaves, tales of their adventure echoing through the jungle night.

Character count: 408

This was just a test. Ignore it.

@ 7d33ba57:1b82db35

Lingen (Ems) is a peaceful town in Lower Saxony, near the Dutch border, known for its historic old town, green surroundings, and relaxed pace of life. It may not be on the typical tourist radar, but it offers a taste of small-town Germany with plenty of charm and local culture.

🏘️ What to See and Do in Lingen

🏛️ Old Town & Market Square

• Stroll through the historic town center, where you’ll find half-timbered houses, cozy cafés, and the lovely St. Boniface Church
• The Rathaus (Town Hall) and its square are perfect for a slow coffee or people-watching

🚲 Nature & Outdoor Activities

• The region around Lingen is great for cycling and walking, especially along the Ems River
• Explore the Emsland countryside, filled with forests, meadows, and quiet villages
• Visit the nearby Emsland Moormuseum to learn about local peatland history

🎓 Student Vibes

• Thanks to the presence of a university, Lingen has a young and vibrant side, with cultural events and small live music scenes

🍺 Local Food & Drink

• Try regional dishes like Grünkohl (kale with sausage in winter) and Schnitzel in a local tavern
• Enjoy a drink at a beer garden or riverside café, especially in warmer months

🚆 Getting There

• Well connected by train, especially to Osnabrück, Münster, and the Dutch city of Enschede
• Great stop on a northern Germany road or rail trip

Lingen is ideal for travelers looking for peaceful towns, regional culture, and access to beautiful natural areas. It’s a place where you can slow down, bike along a river, and enjoy the local way of life.

@ 866e0139:6a9334e5

Autor: Anna Nagel. (Bild: Lukas Karl). Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie auch in unserem Telegram-Kanal.

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Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.

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Wem in seinem Leben Schmerz zugefügt wurde, wer sich ungerecht behandelt fühlt oder wachen Auges in der Welt umschaut, kommt wahrscheinlich irgendwann mit der Frage in Berührung, wie das alles noch einmal «gut» werden kann. Wie kann die Welt sich mit sich selbst versöhnen? Und wie kann ich es selbst schaffen, mich mit ihr und den Menschen, die schlimme Taten vollbringen, wieder in harmonischer Akzeptanz zu verbinden? Kann und will ich gewisse Gräueltaten verzeihen oder gibt es das «Unverzeihliche»? Und selbst wenn ich wollte, wie könnte mir das gelingen?

Perspektivwechsel

Wenn wir an dem Zorn über begangenes Unrecht festhalten, schauen wir in der Regel aus immer derselben Perspektive auf das Geschehen. Mal um Mal erzürnen und empören wir uns darüber, erzählen uns und anderen stets die gleiche Geschichte, die uns allerdings – ebenfalls ein ums andere Mal – wieder selbst verletzt. Das Destruktive holt uns so ständig wieder ein; wir sehen und fühlen das unschuldige Kind und empfinden Verachtung für die Täter.

Die Perspektive zu wechseln lädt uns dazu ein, das Geschehen aus anderen Blickwinkeln zu betrachten und unser Bewusstsein von der schmerzlichen Wiederholung zu lösen. Wir können einmal weit rauszoomen und einen spirituellen Blickwinkel einnehmen, beispielsweise aus Sicht des All-ein-Bewusstseins, das sich in unzählige Seelen teilt, von denen wiederum Milliarden derzeit auf der Erde inkarniert sind. Dieses eine Bewusstsein möchte jede auch nur mögliche Erfahrung machen und durch die Trennung – die Erschaffung der Dualität – kann es sich selbst aus diesen Milliarden Persönlichkeiten heraus erfahren, um zu lernen. Während dieser scheinbaren Trennung vergessen wir, dass wir alle eins sind, dass wir alle aus demselben «Stoff» gemacht sind und nach diesem Spiel hier auf Erden unsere Erinnerung zurückerlangen und unsere Erfahrungen zurück geben in die eine «Quelle».

Unser aller Reise geht letztlich darum, hier auf der Erde aus diesem Zustand des Vergessens zu erwachen. Um dies zu erreichen und all diese Erfahrungen machen zu können und uns auch unter widrigsten Umständen an unsere wahre Essenz, an die Liebe, erinnern können, braucht es auch Akteure, die die Dunkelheit verkörpern – denn nur so haben wir die Wahl, ob wir uns von ihr einnehmen lassen oder uns für die Liebe und das Mitgefühl entscheiden. Der Täter sowie das Opfer sind dabei stets Aspekte unserer selbst – im Innen wie im Außen – und jeder einzelne verändert die Welt, indem er Liebe und Mitgefühl oder Hass und Verachtung wählt.

Eine etwas rationalere Herangehensweise wäre, zu schauen, was dazu führt, dass ein Mensch sich derart unmenschlich verhalten kann; also der Zugang über die Psychologie. Hier werden wir uns bewusst, dass jeder Täter auch einmal ein Kind war. Symbolisch sogar das Kind, mit dem wir jetzt im Beispiel mitfühlen und das wir gleichzeitig heute als erwachsenen Täter verachten. Natürlich kann man hier einwenden, dass nicht jedes Opfer zum Täter wird, aber man kann ebenso anerkennen, dass uns bei dieser Haltung das größte Stück fehlt; und zwar die Geschichte desjenigen, die Jahre dazwischen, sowie jeder einzelne Reiz und jedes Detail der Umstände.

Wie viel Schmerz und Leid muss ein Mensch erfahren, bis er unmenschlich wird? Mit Einbezug aller Umstände und Faktoren, der psychischen Schutzmechanismen traumatischer Erfahrungen sowie fehlender Ausbildung sozialer und empathischer Fähigkeiten auch im neuronalen Bereich kann man auch auf diesem Wege Verständnis erlangen. Sichtbar wird hierdurch auch, dass emotionaler Schmerz über Generationen weitergegeben wird und es schwer ersichtlich ist, wo denn die eigentliche Ursache liegt. Auch hier wird erkennbar, dass nur jeder bei sich anfangen kann und Verantwortung für seine Heilung – und damit gleichzeitig die anderer – übernehmen müsste, anstatt auf die Suche nach dem oder der «Schuldigen» zu gehen.

Was bedarf eigentlich der Vergebung?

Wenn es uns schwerfällt zu vergeben, also Groll und Verachtung loszulassen und Mitgefühl zu empfinden, ist es ebenfalls hilfreich, einmal hinzuschauen, worum es genau geht. Wenn es uns selbst betrifft, handelt es sich in der Regel um Schmerz, der uns willentlich, manchmal auch unbewusst, zugefügt wurde und den wir (noch) nicht loslassen können, weil er noch nicht verheilt ist. Darauf gehe ich später noch einmal ein. Oft geht es aber auch um uns unbekannte Menschen, von deren Verbrechen wir Kenntnis haben und deren Ungeheuerlichkeit uns aus der Fassung bringt. Es geht um Taten, die wir nicht nachvollziehen können, weder rational noch emotional. Wir meinen, selbst wenn jemand nicht spürte, was er anderen antut, so müsse er es doch wenigstens besser wissen. Das ist das, was uns Menschen ausmacht, mit anderen mitzufühlen und sie zu verstehen. Doch anscheinend gibt es Menschen, deren Persönlichkeit oder auch Psyche dazu absolut nicht in der Lage sind. Die keinen moralischen Kompass besitzen und keinerlei soziales Empfinden, denn sonst könnten sie bestimmte Taten nicht ausführen. Möglicherweise dissoziieren sie sich selbst so stark, dass diese für sie eine Normalität darstellen, sie diese entschuldigen beziehungsweise vor sich selbst rechtfertigen oder im extremen Fall keine Erinnerung mehr daran haben.

Uns erscheinen die fehlende Empathie sowie das fehlende Verständnis so fremd, dass wir es nicht nachvollziehen können. Uns fehlt die Nachvollziehbarkeit der Nichtnachvollziehbarkeit des Erlebens des anderen, und wir erachten diesen dadurch als unmenschlich. Denn menschlich wären doch eben diese Fähigkeiten wie Mitgefühl, Güte, Reflexion, Warmherzigkeit, Verständnis und Liebe. Zugleich erzeugen wir hier aber einen Konflikt, wenn wir sagen: «Da diese Menschen sich so unmenschlich verhalten, soll ihnen kein Mitgefühl und keine Vergebung entgegengebracht werden, sollen auch sie nicht menschlich behandelt werden», wodurch wir uns allerdings selbst unserer Menschlichkeit berauben.

«Aber der Täter hatte doch die freie Wahl, er hätte doch anders entscheiden können!» Ja, möglicherweise schon, aber jetzt haben wir die Wahl. Und wir haben viel leichtere Voraussetzungen dafür, menschlich zu handeln, weil wir gesunden Zugang zu unserer Empathie, Moral und unserer Ratio haben.

Hätte der Täter es geschafft, seinen Tätern zu verzeihen, würde er die Destruktivität, die er ab einem gewissen Zeitpunkt nicht mehr in sich tragen oder verdrängen konnte, nicht an anderen ausagieren. Es ist ihm nicht gelungen, vielleicht sogar weil etwas in ihm es für unmöglich hielt, Unmenschliches, das ihm zugefügt wurde, zu verzeihen. Aber uns kann es gelingen, diesen Kreislauf zu durchbrechen und uns nicht in ihn hineinziehen zu lassen; wir können dem «Dunklen» den Nährboden entziehen.

Manchmal nehmen wir an, würden wir das Unbeschreibliche verzeihen, bedeutete dies, dass wir es tolerieren oder gar gutheißen. Dem ist nicht so. Analog dazu habe ich manches Mal die Angst gehabt, würde ich aufhören, um meinen Freund zu trauern, bedeute dies, dass ich ihn nicht mehr vermisse. Auch das ist nicht richtig. Ich heile lediglich das, was mir Schmerzen zufügt, bis am Ende nur noch die Liebe bleibt. Und wenn wir verzeihen, ist es kein Gutheißen der Taten, es bedeutet ein Loslassen dessen, was uns damit verstrickt und das Destruktive nährt.

Mitgefühl beginnt bei uns selbst

«Daß ich dem Hungrigen zu essen gebe, dem vergebe, der mich beleidigt, und meinen Feind liebe- das sind große Tugenden. Was aber, wenn ich nun entdecken sollte, daß der armselige Bettler und der unverschämteste Beleidiger alle in mir selber sind und ich bedürftig bin, Empfänger meiner eigenen Wohltaten zu sein? Daß ich der Feind bin, den ich lieben muß - was dann?» – C. G. Jung

Mit diesem Zitat beginnt Dan Millman das Kapitel «Das Gesetz des Mitgefühls» in seinem Buch «Die universellen Lebensgesetze des friedvollen Kriegers». Die weise Frau lehrt dem Wanderer das Gesetz des Mitgefühls und erklärt, es sei «eine liebevolle Aufforderung, über unsere begrenzte Sichtweise hinauszuwachsen», auch wenn die Last dieser Aufgabe zuweilen sehr schwer wiegen könne. Genau deshalb müsse man daran denken, dass sie bei uns selbst beginnt und wir «geduldig» und «sanft» mit uns, unseren Gefühlen und Gedanken sein sollten.

Um dem – noch skeptischen – Wanderer zu veranschaulichen, wie wir Mitgefühl auch mit unseren Gegnern empfinden können, bat sie ihn, sich an eine Auseinandersetzung zu erinnern, in der er zornig, neidisch oder eifersüchtig war und sich diese Gefühle noch einmal zu vergegenwärtigen. Als er das tat, den Schmerz und die Wut wieder spürte, sagte sie zu ihm: «Und nun stell dir vor, daß der Mensch, mit dem du dich streitest, mitten in eurer erregten Auseinandersetzung plötzlich nach seinem Herzen faßt, einen Schrei ausstößt und zu deinen Füßen tot zu Boden sinkt.» Der Wanderer erschrak und auf Nachfrage der weisen Frau stellte er fest, dass er nun keinerlei Schmerz oder Wut mehr empfand. Sogleich aber kam ihm der Gedanke: «Aber – aber was wäre, wenn ich mich über den Tod dieses Menschen freuen würde? Wenn ich ihm nicht verzeihen könnte?», worauf die weise Frau antwortete: «Dann verzeih dir wenigstens selber deine Unversöhnlichkeit. Und in dieser Vergebung wirst du das Mitgefühl finden, das deinen Schmerz heilt, als Mensch in dieser Welt zu leben.»

Weiter erinnert uns die weise Frau daran, dass wir alle, während wir hier auf der Erde sind, Träume, Hoffnungen und Enttäuschungen haben; und dass diese, sowie letztlich der Tod, uns alle verbinden.

Es ist ein Prozess

Dan Millman sagt hier in Gestalt der Weisen Frau, dass Mitgefühl bei uns selbst beginnt und diesen Aspekt möchte ich noch einmal hervorheben. Es kann nämlich passieren, dass wir uns in einer oberflächlichen Vergebung wieder finden, weil wir meinen, es sei richtig und moralisch, anderen zu verzeihen, ohne aber die tieferen Schichten dabei zu fühlen. Das ist dann leider nichts anderes, als Verdrängung. Gerade wenn wir selbst Opfer von Ungerechtigkeit, physischer oder mentaler Gewalt wurden, ist es unerlässlich den Heilungsweg in Gänze zu durchschreiten, und in den Wachstumsprozess zu verwandeln, der uns Mitgefühl und Weisheit lehrt. Und dazu gehören die Wut auf das Begangene, die Verzweiflung, die Ungerechtigkeit und Ohnmacht zu fühlen, uns auf «unsere Seite» zu stellen und Partei für uns selbst zu ergreifen, bevor es ernstlich möglich wird, zu verzeihen. Zunächst fühlen wir mit uns selbst den Schmerz und befreien die Gefühle, die wir uns möglicherweise nie trauten zu fühlen, all die Wut und den Groll. Erst später kann dann aus dem Inneren heraus das weitere Erkennen stattfinden und Heilung und Vergebung geschehen.

Vergebung findet im Herzen statt

Die hier in diesem Text von mir aufgeführten Perspektiven sind nur zwei, drei kleine Beispiele für Sichtweisen, die man einnehmen könnte, um zu neuen Einsichten zu gelangen. Sie sollen niemanden von irgendetwas überzeugen, sondern als Anregung dienen. Denn letztlich geht es darum, Vergebung in sich selbst zu finden. Vergebung ist also etwas, das aus dem Inneren heraus entsteht; ein Ergebnis eines tiefen Verständnisses und Fühlens, ja eines Erkennens. Auf dieser Reise gehen wir unterschiedliche Blickwinkel und Versionen ab, bis wir im Herzen ankommen, es sich öffnet und wir plötzlich «klar» sehen. Daraufhin breitet sich Wärme im Körper aus, Liebe durchströmt uns, begleitet möglicherweise von einem Gefühl leiser Euphorie, möglicherweise auch einem leichten Schmerz und Tränen – sowohl ein paar der Traurigkeit als auch welchen der Dankbarkeit. Das Loslassen und die Befreiung sind spürbar und nur für jeden persönlich erfahrbar, der sich auf diesen Weg begibt und seine individuelle Ansicht findet, die ihn befreit und erlöst.

Meiner Meinung nach bedeutet also Vergebung eine Öffnung des Herzens, ein Erkennen und ein Hineinwachsen in die Perspektive der Liebe. Sie ist nicht auf rationaler Ebene zu finden; die rationale Ebene kann nur dabei helfen, den Weg zum Mitgefühl zu beschreiten, denn:

«Man sieht nur mit dem Herzen gut. Das Wesentliche ist für die Augen unsichtbar.»

– Antoine de Saint-Exupéry

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Anna Nagel veröffentlicht auf ihrem Blog „Heimwärts“ seit Jahren zu den Themen Heilung, Bewusstsein, kollektives Erwachen, Gefühle, Spiritualität, Psyche, Kundalini und Philosophie.

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Sie sind noch nicht auf Nostr and wollen die volle Erfahrung machen (liken, kommentieren etc.)? Zappen können Sie den Autor auch ohne Nostr-Profil! Erstellen Sie sich einen Account auf Start. Weitere Onboarding-Leitfäden gibt es im Pareto-Wiki.

@ 83279ad2:bd49240d

a

@ 83279ad2:bd49240d

a

@ d3d74124:a4eb7b1d

language is a funny thing. the English grammar is one of the most, if the not THE most complicated grammars to learn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Language_Aptitude_Battery\ DLAB. it's the test you take to see if you have a gift for language learning.

in my exploration of languages, first Chinese Mandarin, then software languages, context is king (Jesus is King). the surrounding context is different every where you go.

physical space context. we can't be two places at once. nostr allows for many languages, because you can provide your own digital context. our physical perspective give us a field of view. NOSTR clients give us a field of view into digital context.

math is a language.

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bitcoin will be called a lot of things.

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wizardry

some elections results are anchored in time. using bitcoin. what else should be? legal documents seem obvious. other cryptographic proofs.

zero knowledge proofs. something about curve trees.

Find your local BitDevs.

Shenandoah Bitcoin Club

pondering a Veteran's Day live music event in Frederick County, VA. who would show up to a lunch and learn with hardware wallets in testnet4 mode? to try shit out? local only, but you should do it where you are too if you're not local.

mining

getting better? Bitmain announces a "decentralized mining pool" but I doubt we'll see open source code if history follows. 256Foundation getting to business. working prototypes for the Ember One using USB and python are out there for those that know where to look. i am very bullish on mujina. very bullish. fun coinbase tricks happening too with CTV+CSFS.

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p.s. written on primal's new article publishing UI.

@ 502ab02a:a2860397

เรามาดู แลคเชอร์ประวัติศาสตร์ ที่พลิกโลกแห่งการเกษตรและอาหารของมนุษย์ชาติกันครับ เรามาดูความแยบยลที่สามารถจูงใจคนมากมายให้เห็นถึงข้อดีของเนื้อจากแลบ เขาทำได้ยังไง เรามาศึกษาการสื่อสารกันครับ

เรื่องมันเริ่มจากการประชุม World Economic Forum ปี 2015 ที่ศาสตราจารย์ Mark Post นักเภสัชวิทยาชาวดัตช์ ที่เรารู้จักกันไปแล้ว ซึ่งตอนนั้นเป็นศาสตราจารย์ด้านสรีรวิทยาของหลอดเลือดอยู่ที่ Maastricht University และเป็นผู้ร่วมก่อตั้งบริษัท Mosa Meat ได้ลุกขึ้นมาเล่าเรื่อง "เนื้อเพาะเลี้ยง" หรือ cultured meat ให้คนทั้งห้องฟัง

สิ่งที่เขาพูดมันไม่ใช่แค่นวัตกรรมใหม่ แต่คือคำเตือนที่จริงจัง ว่าถ้ามนุษย์ยังผลิตเนื้อสัตว์แบบเดิม เรากำลังวิ่งเข้าใกล้ปัญหาใหญ่ที่รออยู่ข้างหน้า

ศาสตราจารย์ Post เล่าไว้ได้น่าสนใจมาก เขาบอกว่าแค่จะได้แฮมเบอร์เกอร์ 1 ชิ้นขนาดหนึ่งในสี่ปอนด์ เราต้องใช้เมล็ดธัญพืช 7 ปอนด์ ใช้น้ำจืด 50 แกลลอน และพื้นที่ดินอีก 70 ตารางฟุต นั่นแปลว่าเรากำลังเปลี่ยนของดีในธรรมชาติ ข้าว น้ำ ดิน ไปเป็นของที่กินหมดใน 10 นาที แล้วหิวใหม่ได้ในอีกครึ่งชั่วโมง

เหตุผลก็เพราะวัวมันไม่ได้แปลงโปรตีนพืชมาเป็นเนื้อได้มีประสิทธิภาพนัก พูดอีกแบบคือ มันเปลืองเกินไป

ตอนนี้พื้นที่เพาะปลูกของโลกกว่า 70% ถูกใช้ไปในการผลิตเนื้อสัตว์ คิดดูสิว่าถ้าเราหาทางที่ดีกว่านี้ได้ เราจะมีพื้นที่ว่างกลับคืนมาแค่ไหน

แถมวัวไม่ใช่แค่กินเก่งนะ ยังปล่อยก๊าซเก่งด้วย โดยเฉพาะมีเทนที่ทำให้โลกร้อนพอๆ กับอุตสาหกรรมการขนส่งเลยทีเดียว ศาสตราจารย์ Post เล่าว่า ทุกครั้งที่เขาเห็นวัวยืนเคี้ยวหญ้า เขาไม่ได้เห็นแค่วัว...แต่เห็นเมฆก๊าซมีเทนลอยมาด้วย

และที่น่าคิดคือ เมื่อรายได้ของคนในอินเดียหรือจีนสูงขึ้น พวกเขาจะกินเนื้อเพิ่มตามรายได้ ซึ่งสถิติบอกว่าภายในปี 2050 ความต้องการเนื้อสัตว์จะเพิ่มขึ้นเป็น สองเท่า จากปัจจุบัน

แต่ศาสตราจารย์ก็ไม่ได้มองว่าเนื้อเป็นปีศาจ เขาบอกว่า มนุษย์ถูกสร้างมาให้รักเนื้อ เนื้อคือสิ่งที่มาพร้อมวิวัฒนาการ เราได้พลังงานจากมัน สมองเราใหญ่ขึ้นเพราะมัน และกลายเป็นมนุษย์เพราะมัน

แม้จะมีคนอีกกว่าสองพันล้านที่เป็นมังสวิรัติ ส่วนใหญ่อาจเพราะไม่มีทางเลือก แต่อย่างน้อยพวกเขาก็อยู่รอดได้ แต่ก็ปฏิเสธไม่ได้ว่า คนที่เคยล่า เคยกินเนื้อ จะรู้สึกตื่นเต้นทุกครั้งที่ได้แบ่งเนื้อกันบนโต๊ะ

ศาสตราจารย์ Post เองก็ยังชอบกินเนื้อ แต่เขาอยากได้เนื้อที่ได้มาจากทางเลือกที่ดีกว่า ไม่ใช่ทางที่พาโลกเข้า ICU

เนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงเริ่มจากหลักการง่ายๆ ที่เรารู้มาตั้งแต่ช่วงปี 2000 ว่า ในกล้ามเนื้อของสัตว์มี สเต็มเซลล์ รอคอยจะซ่อมแซมเนื้อเยื่อหากมันได้รับบาดเจ็บ

แค่เอาชิ้นกล้ามเนื้อเล็กๆ จากวัว ขนาดแค่ 1 ซม. x 1 มม. มาแยกสเต็มเซลล์ออกมาเลี้ยงให้ขยายตัว

เฮียว่าอันนี้น่าทึ่งมาก เพราะจากตัวอย่างเล็กๆ ชิ้นเดียว สามารถผลิตเนื้อวัวได้ถึง 10,000 กิโลกรัม เลยนะ!

แปลว่าเราสามารถลดจำนวนวัวทั้งโลกจากครึ่งพันล้านตัว เหลือแค่ประมาณ 30,000 ตัวได้เลย

และถ้าให้เซลล์กล้ามเนื้อพวกนี้อยู่ในสภาพแวดล้อมที่เหมาะสม มันก็จะเริ่มสร้างกล้ามเนื้อขึ้นมาเอง โดยเฉพาะถ้าเรากระตุ้นให้มันรู้สึกเหมือนกำลัง “ออกกำลัง” อยู่ เช่น ใส่แรงตึงเข้าไป

ทีมนักวิจัยของเขาเลี้ยงเซลล์เหล่านี้ให้เติบโตในรูปวงแหวนคล้ายโดนัท ครบ 3 สัปดาห์ กล้ามเนื้อจะเริ่มหดตัว สร้างความตึง และกลายเป็นเนื้อกล้ามเนื้อแบบเต็มตัวที่ดูไม่ต่างจากกล้ามเนื้อในสเต็กจริงๆ เลย

ปี 2013 ทีมของ Mark Post ผลิตเส้นใยกล้ามเนื้อจำนวน 10,000 เส้น เอามาทำแฮมเบอร์เกอร์ และนำไปเปิดตัวในงานแถลงข่าวที่ลอนดอน เป็นเหมือนการโชว์ทำอาหารผสมกับเปิดงานวิจัย

จุดประสงค์คือจะพิสูจน์ให้โลกเห็นว่า “เฮ้ย! สิ่งนี้ไม่ใช่แค่ไอเดียลอยๆ แต่มันทำได้จริง และจำเป็นต้องทำจริงๆ เพราะเรากำลังจะเจอวิกฤต”

ราคาแฮมเบอร์เกอร์ตอนนั้นคือ 250,000 ยูโร

มีเชฟผู้กล้าปรุง และอาสาสมัครสองคนลองชิม พวกเขาบอกว่า “ก็โอเคในฐานะเบอร์เกอร์ราคาเท่านี้ แต่ก็อยากได้รสเข้มกว่านี้หน่อย” เพราะยังไม่มีไขมัน เลยรสจืดไปหน่อย

แต่ที่สำคัญคือ พวกเขายืนยันว่า “มันคือเนื้อจริงๆ” ทั้งเนื้อสัมผัสและโครงสร้าง

แค่มีต้นแบบยังไม่พอ เพราะจะทำให้ขายได้จริง ต้องผ่านด่านสำคัญ เนื้อต้องผลิตได้โดยใช้ทรัพยากรน้อยกว่าการเลี้ยงวัวจริง การประเมินเบื้องต้นจาก University of Oxford พบว่า เนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงใช้พื้นที่น้อยลง 90% น้ำลดลง 90% พลังงานลดลง 60–70%

ทุกอย่างที่ใช้ในการเลี้ยงเซลล์ต้องมีจำนวนมากพอหรือหมุนเวียนใช้ได้ ที่น่าหนักใจคือ การเลี้ยงเซลล์ต้องใช้ “ซีรั่มจากลูกวัว” ซึ่งได้มาจากเลือดวัว ถ้าลดจำนวนวัว เราก็ไม่มีซีรั่ม แต่ตอนนี้มีงานพัฒนาไปเยอะแล้ว กำลังหาวิธีทำเซลล์กล้ามเนื้อโดยไม่ต้องพึ่งซีรั่มจากสัตว์

ไม่ใช่แค่โปรตีน แต่ต้องเป็น "เนื้อ" ในทุกความรู้สึก นักวิจัยพยายามปรับสภาพแวดล้อมการเพาะเลี้ยง เช่น ความเข้มข้นของออกซิเจน เพื่อให้เซลล์แสดงโปรตีนสำคัญ เช่น myoglobin ที่ทำให้เนื้อมีสีและรสชาติเหมือนเนื้อจริง

การยอมรับของผู้บริโภคเป็นอีกด่านสำคัญที่เนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงต้องข้ามผ่านให้ได้ ไม่ใช่แค่เรื่องรสชาติหรือคุณค่าทางโภชนาการเท่านั้น แต่ยังเป็นเรื่องของ "ใจ" ที่ต้องเปิดรับสิ่งใหม่ที่ไม่คุ้นเคย ศาสตราจารย์ Post เล่าว่า ในการสำรวจผู้บริโภคในอังกฤษและเนเธอร์แลนด์ พบว่ามีคนไม่น้อยที่ยินดีจะลองกินเนื้อเพาะเลี้ยง ถึง 52% ของชาวดัตช์ และ 60% ของชาวอังกฤษเลยทีเดียว

เขาเปรียบเทียบว่า จริงๆ แล้ว คนเรายอมกินฮอทดอกโดยไม่รู้ด้วยซ้ำว่าทำมาจากอะไร หรือผ่านอะไรมาบ้าง ขอแค่มัน "อร่อย ถูก และดูปลอดภัย" ก็เพียงพอแล้วสำหรับคนส่วนใหญ่ ดังนั้นเนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงจึงไม่ต่างกันมากนัก ขอเพียงให้คนรู้สึกว่า “กินแล้วไม่ตาย” และ “ไม่ได้แปลกจนใจฝ่อ” เท่านั้นแหละ วันหนึ่งมันก็จะกลายเป็นของธรรมดาในตู้เย็นเหมือนกับโยเกิร์ตหรือไส้กรอกนั่นเอง

ในด้านของราคา แม้จะยังไม่ถูกเท่าไส้กรอกในซูเปอร์ แต่ก็ลดลงมาไกลจากจุดเริ่มต้นแบบสุดๆ จากชิ้นต้นแบบราคา 250,000 ดอลลาร์ในปี 2013 ตอนนี้ต้นทุนลดลงมาเหลือประมาณ 65 ดอลลาร์ต่อกิโลกรัม (ยังไม่รวมเทคโนโลยีล้ำหน้าอื่นๆ ที่กำลังพัฒนาอยู่) ซึ่งก็ถือว่าอยู่ในระดับเดียวกับเนื้อวากิวหรือสเต๊กเกรดพรีเมียมเลยทีเดียว เป้าหมายคือทำให้ถูกลงอีก และผลิตได้ในระดับอุตสาหกรรมให้เพียงพอกับคนทั้งโลก ไม่ใช่ของฟุ่มเฟือยสำหรับคนรวยเท่านั้น

แต่วิสัยทัศน์ที่น่าสนใจจริงๆ คือ ภาพของอนาคตที่ศาสตราจารย์ Post วาดไว้ เขาเชื่อว่าเทคโนโลยีนี้เรียบง่ายพอที่จะขยายไปสู่ครัวเรือนหรือชุมชนเล็กๆ ได้ วันหนึ่งเราอาจได้เห็นการเพาะเลี้ยงเซลล์จากหมูที่เลี้ยงอยู่ข้างบ้าน แล้วเอาไปปั่นเป็นหมูสับแบบสดใหม่ ไม่ต้องฆ่าสัตว์ ไม่ต้องส่งโรงงาน ไม่ต้องตัดต่อพันธุกรรม แค่นั่งรอเหมือนหมักแป้งเปรี้ยว แล้วได้เนื้อสดๆ มาใส่ต้มจืด

และนั่นแหละคือ "การเปลี่ยนกรอบคิดเรื่องเนื้อสัตว์" แบบพลิกฝ่ามือ

มันจะไม่ใช่เรื่องการฆ่าอีกต่อไป ไม่ใช่เรื่องของฟาร์มกลิ่นฉี่ หรือสายพานโรงฆ่าสัตว์ มันจะเป็น "ผลิตภัณฑ์ใหม่" ที่เราสร้างได้ ควบคุมได้ และปรับแต่งได้ เช่น เพิ่มโอเมก้า 3 ในเซลล์ไขมันให้สูงขึ้น หรือทำให้เนื้อไม่มีคอเลสเตอรอลเลยก็ยังได้

แม้ศาสตราจารย์ Post จะเน้นเรื่องความมั่นคงทางอาหารและผลกระทบต่อสิ่งแวดล้อมเป็นหลัก แต่เขาก็ยอมรับว่า สำหรับคนกินทั่วๆ ไป ประเด็นที่ "ไม่มีสัตว์ต้องเจ็บปวด" จะกลายเป็นจุดขายที่สำคัญในใจของผู้บริโภค

เขาเชื่อว่า เมื่อวันนั้นมาถึง วันที่เรายืนอยู่หน้าตู้แช่ในซูเปอร์ แล้วเห็นผลิตภัณฑ์สองชิ้นวางข้างกัน — หนึ่งคือเนื้อวัวที่มาจากฟาร์ม และอีกหนึ่งคือเนื้อเพาะเลี้ยงที่ไม่เคยมีวัวต้องร้องไห้แม้แต่นิดเดียว — การตัดสินใจอาจจะไม่ง่าย แต่ "จะมีคนจำนวนมากขึ้นเรื่อยๆ ที่เลือกแบบไม่ต้องฆ่า"

เพราะสุดท้าย เราไม่ได้แค่กินเนื้อ… เรากำลังกิน “ความเชื่อ” ลงไปด้วย #pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr

ใครสนใจดูคลิปก็กดตรงนี้ได้ครับ https://youtu.be/1lI9AwxKfTY?si=6CDBUl2yGBoHWc-P

@ 048ecb14:7c28ac78

I recently set up a Raspberry Pi camera server that's so minimal and straightforward, I thought it was worth sharing. This isn't one of those over-engineered solutions with fancy features - it's just a basic, reliable camera feed accessible from any browser on my local network.

The Goal

I wanted something that: 1. Starts automatically when the Pi boots up 2. Captures images at regular intervals 3. Shows the latest image in a simple web page accessible from any device 4. Doesn't require complex setup or dependencies 5. Uses minimal resources on my old Raspberry Pi

The Hardware

Nothing fancy here: - Raspberry Pi 2B (yes, the ancient one from 2015!) - Raspberry Pi Camera Module (standard version) - Power supply - That's it!

The Result

The interface is minimal but does the job. It shows the latest image and auto-refreshes every couple of seconds.

How to Get Set Up

Getting this running on your own Pi is super simple:

1. Make sure your camera module is connected and enabled bash sudo raspi-config # Navigate to Interface Options > Camera and enable it

2. Install the only dependency, ImageMagick (for rotation) bash sudo apt update sudo apt install imagemagick

3. Clone the repository, and navigate to the implementation's directory bash git clone https://github.com/rewolf/RpiCameraViewer cd simple

4. Start the camera server bash ./start_camera_server.sh

5. Access the feed from any device on your network http://your-pi-ip-address:8080

That's it! No complex configuration, no fancy dependencies.

For more details consider reading the README

To make it start automatically on boot:

Add the following, with your specific installation path ```bash crontab -e

Add this line:

@reboot cd /path/to/RpiCameraViewer/simple && ./start_camera_server.sh ```

Configuration

There's not much configuration, but you can tweak few variables at the top of the capture.sh file to modify width, height, rotation, quality, etc:

bash QUALITY=90 WIDTH=720 HEIGHT=1280 ROTATION=90 # Set to 0 to disable rotation

How It Works

The solution is very basic:

1. A bash script (capture.sh) captures photos every few seconds by running libcamera-still and sending a SIGUSR1 interrupt to signal it to capture a snapshot
2. The snapshot is rotated as needed with ImageMagick and saved with timestamps
3. A symbolic link is updated to point to the latest image
4. A minimal Python HTTP server serves a basic webpage showing the current image (the symlink), rendered to an HTML canvas

Note it does expose that directory to the whole LAN on :8080.

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Give it a try if you need something like that quickly.

I have a plan to make a better implementation planned at some point, but for now this will do.

@ ece127e2:745bab9c

vamos a ver que tal

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*lo bueno es que si entro en https://makimono.lumilumi.app/ a la nota y agrego contenido , como éste ...quiero ver si lo añade o hace una nueva nota ?? *

@ e9d7ed6f:f52b3346

I'd like to toss it off by thanking you my reader, friends, associates, strangers, bitcoiners, cryptonaires, economists, and critics from all walks of life for granting me this opportunity to write to you. yeah?...

Is that readable? Is there enough ink in this pen to write? Let me squash and develop a fresh script!

Okay now, that was one heck of a disaster introduction my friends.

That's not even the way Satoshi introduced his White paper back in 2008, or rather mined his first block. So dear reader, lets pretend this introduction never happened lets give it one more kick start.

Alright we are set so here we go...

Flavatos, Gateway Mall, the left ventricle of Lilongwe's heart, Malawi is where the aroma of a fresh bitcoin pizza sent waves of spattering energy, broadcasting to all nodes over the bitcoin network. Pizza crums spread over the table, folks and knives faced opposite directions, tomato sauce on the white plate had contours of pizza passage, a half baked joke & its laughter could be heard by passersby's heading inside the mall. It was chilly Saturday afternoon from outside but the soft drinks were a must to soften the well baked fragments of pizza which were being churned. All thanks to Larszlo Keyckenes. Phones where right on the table as the photographer snapped every detail of moment with his camera, trying to paint a bitcoin Monalisa, innocence was in the youthful energetic bitcoiners who filled left to right seats in pairs. Three tables were joined together making a table tennis appear short, but the waitress had to check for any empty slot to squeeze a chair in. We were twenty three with the expection of thirty but the space was just plentiful.

Flavatos was ready and set. The waitress again, with a smile of welcoming a guest whispered right besides where i was standing that the pizza is ready, but i had to HODL for a moment, we were just setting up the laptop which we would use to connect & listen to a presentation by John Miller, a distant relative and a bitcoiner we had talked of for weeks. As if am very good at analysing charts, the looks of the faces were eagerly waiting and i when i looked on my wrist i realised we didn't have much more time other than to start off, so i clapped my hands to capture everyones attention. I was excited to welcome all & really appreciate for sparing their time to come.

There was buzz in the atmosphere, all eyes glued to me as i thanked the cofounder Grant for pulling the strings, in our presence we had the cofounder of women of Satoshi Yankho who i was facing directly to my right hand side and threw me sparkle of acknowledgement, i couldn't forget & sweep under the mat, John Miller sponsor for the Bitcoin Pizza who is currently in the US & was waiting to deliver a speech on this very moment. All started off in the right order, my stomach tuned as my brain signaled the pizza image, sending tickling hunger sensation, so not to keep everyone waiting longer, i handed it over to Grant who quickly threw like free shot on the free throw line. There was genuine appreciation and he set the floor ready for John Miller to grace and unwrap the Pizza. When John took on the google meet space, we all fixed to our phones, eager to see John who was seven hours away from us, about two or three plane tickets to get where he was physically located. John delivered a twenty minute presentation that would make a fresh graduate take off his hat and really consider what they did the last four years of their university. There was a lot of knowledge on his presentation, highlighting the eminent nails to the coffin for US dollar, the chart and numbers didn't lie when he displayed how the purchasing power of the dollar has declined since 1971 post detachment from gold. He spoke with authority on why bitcoin, how Bitcoiners should continue orange pilling and detoxing all the pool of confusion of the current FIAT sytem. It was listening to wisdom of an old man, giving the torch to the young ones. The waitress had brought to the table clean white plates with some folks wrapped in a white napkin tissue that appeared so white as Satoshi's white paper. In no time the pizza was ready to bona petite, John wrapped up in a cousy style by saying, "keep stacking Sats and avoiding shitcoins. The attendees were in pairs and hands were rubbing, contemplating of how the first bite would feel. The enzymes were ready to digest. The next host, who happens to be the writer of this article had to take the floor and give short remarks to thank John, Grant and everyone. I saw the pizza being cut into slices, whilst others took sips of their favorite soft drinks, there were smiles from left to right check. The sound chewing was amplified, triggering my ear drums to some vibe. This was was a big family reunion. My signal for speaking almost went off as the aroma teased the mind, i saw the bubble from the fanta bottle float up but i was mature to handled the temper of my hunger. As the pizza halvening was going on, I reminded of how significant this moment was when Larszlo Heykens first made an offer of 10,000 BTC & how it signified use case of bitcoin as a medium of exchange and a resort of finality between two counterparts without any middleman. It surely was moment that reminded us of the free markets. Where two counterparts chose their own commodities of exchange and each left satisfied as finality of transactions. Truly those were the good old free market days. By the time i said goodbye, my counterparts had already mined half of the pizza brought. I was about to pop a question of where is my share when i saw three more full plates of pizza broadcasted & awaiting for verification. I knew i was in for a treat.

As i kept my hands, mouth and tummy busy, one surprising moment really fired me up with excitement. Grant stood up and surprised everyone by introducing his new friend from Kenya. He said they had met in Mulanje and how they came across each other was purely a barter coincidence of wants. Rather him explaining, he let our new Kenyan explorer share the fascinating story of how he wanted to send funds in Kenya but couldn't find means of transalating our local currency into the Kenyan shilling. So how could these two opposite worlds tie together? When he saw the post of bitcoin accepted here, it sparked the charge. Using Bitcoin, he was able to send funds in Kenya via bitcoin lightening wallet through Tando and Mpesa. As if we were in a cinema watching possibilities become realities, a demostration was showcased how inter transactions are done from a wallet of Satoshi lightening wallet to Tando whilst eating pizza in Malawi.

It was truly a fantastic orange day to pill and slice. See you in the next article as i continue to polish my writing skills.

Pacharo Nyirenda. Bitcoinboma An amature writer but soon to be pro writer & blogger!

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

I’ve spent years chasing the promise of freedom.\ In startups. In faith communities. In movements that claimed to be for the people.

And yet — so often, that promise felt just out of reach.\ Conditional. Corporate. Sanitized.\ A freedom with fine print.

But here —\ Here in the thick of Bitcoin 2025, on Nostr, among misfits and builders and signal-bringers —\ something is alive.

It’s not a platform.\ It’s not a marketing strategy.\ It’s not another app promising to “empower” you while locking down your data and selling you out.

It’s freedom rooted in architecture.\ Decentralization not just as a buzzword —\ but as an expression of conviction.

A kind of freedom you can feel in your body:

• When you zap someone’s words because they moved you — not because an algorithm told you to.

• When your identity is yours — keys, not credentials.

• When no one can delete your story because you control the server, or because there is no server — just the relay of your choosing.

This isn’t utopia.\ There are egos. There’s noise. There’s still posturing.\ But it’s different.\ The center of gravity has shifted.

We’re no longer begging institutions to notice us.\ We’re building outside their jurisdiction.

And for the first time in a long time,\ freedom feels close.\ Tangible.\ Joyful.\ Alive.

This isn’t just about tech.\ It’s about trust.\ It’s about choosing to show up —\ to build\ to write\ to signal\ to keep going.

Even when it’s hard.\ Even when no one claps.

Because real freedom doesn’t come from being noticed.\ It comes from being sovereign.

And that’s something no one can take from me again.

—

Written in Las Vegas, during Bitcoin 2025.\ Posted via Nostr. Vibes co-authored by ChatGPT (“Dr. C”).\ Zap: https://tinyurl.com/yuyu2b9t

@ a396e36e:ec991f1c

👤 Generation X and Bitcoin: Between Invisibility, Structural Disillusionment, and Defiance

Generation X, born between 1965 and 1980, has been largely sidelined in generational discourse. Unlike the baby boomers —symbols of stability and prosperity— or millennials and Gen Z —constant fixtures in the media and cultural spotlight— Gen X remains the least mentioned, the least studied, and often not even recognized by its own members as a distinct generation.

Today, they are in midlife —a period that, according to the U-shaped curve of happiness, is one of the most emotionally and psychologically difficult stages: deteriorating health, professional stagnation, and the dual burden of caring for both parents and children. But their condition is not just a matter of age —it’s the product of a unique convergence of economic and political failure.

Structurally, Generation X reached its crucial phase of financial consolidation during the global economic crisis of 2008 —a moment that froze wage growth and severely limited access to housing, investment opportunities, and savings. In parallel, they faced increasing labor precarization: unstable contracts, outsourcing, erosion of social protections, and the dismantling of job security. Compared to other generations, their economic mobility was minimal. Even in terms of wealth accumulation and home ownership, many Gen Xers show weaker indicators than early-born millennials at the same life stage.

At the same time, many countries —especially in Latin America and parts of Europe— turned toward alternative models to free-market systems: socialist proposals that promised redistribution, justice, and equality. But in practice, these models led to state dependency, excessive intervention, economic rigidity, and a loss of productive dynamism. The outcome was devastating: rising poverty, institutional decay, inflation, plummeting investment, growing corruption, and a widespread collapse of trust.

For a generation raised on values of effort, autonomy, and social mobility, this ideological shift brought a double betrayal —first from liberalism, which failed to deliver on its promises, and then from socialism, which entrenched poverty, dependency, and dysfunction.

And yet, while younger generations increasingly embrace state-centric proposals like universal basic income, subsidies, or nationalizations as progressive solutions, many in Gen X see these not as innovation, but as déjà vu —a recycling of failed models they’ve already lived and paid for.

It’s at this point that Bitcoin emerges as more than just a financial technology. For many Gen Xers, Bitcoin is both a symbolic and concrete response — a refuge from a system that betrayed them. It’s not just about investment. It’s about individual sovereignty. They call it “fuck you money” because it represents a total break from traditional structures: it doesn’t depend on banks, governments, political parties, or promises that never materialize.

Bitcoin is money without permission, without censorship, without planned devaluation. It’s a tool for radical autonomy. For a generation marked by skepticism, self-reliance, and disillusionment, it stands as a quiet but powerful form of resistance — a way of saying: “I don’t depend on you. I don’t believe you. I don’t need you.”

Today, while others debate new statist models or more market reforms, many Gen Xers are simply opting out. Bitcoin isn’t just an economic choice — it’s a stance. A way to reclaim the individual control the system once denied them.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na bitcoin-balkan.com.

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1. Kako Cantillonov Efekat Funkcioniše
2. Kako Bitcoin Rešava Nejednakost iz Cantillonovog Efekta
3. Uloga Vlade u Cantillonovom Efektu
4. Zaštitite Sebe od Cantillonovog Efekta
5. Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?

Pitanje o tome zašto nam je potreban Bitcoin danas je postalo veoma uobičajeno, ali odgovori obično ostavljaju većinu ljudi zbunjenim i sa izjavama da je on, ili Ponzijeva šema ili novac za kriminalce. Ovaj zaključak nije pravičan prema načinu na koji bi Bitcoin mogao da transformiše sistemsku nepravednost i korupciju koja je usadjena u naš trenutni monetarni sistem. Jedna od ovih nejednakosti u našem današnjem sistemu rezultat je Cantillonovog Efekta, davno zaboravljene klasične teorije o tome kako raspodela novca utiče na bogatstvo pojedinca.

Cantillonov Efekat opisuje kako stvaranje novog novca donosi korist onima koji prvi dobiju novac, a na štetu onih koji su najudaljeniji od stvaranja novog novca. U današnjem monetarnom sistemu banke i korporacije su najbliže novom novcu dok je srednja klasa najudaljenija. Bitcoin to ispravlja, davanjem novih bitcoin-a samo „rudarima“ koji osiguravaju protokol – mnogo pravednija distribucija.

Cantillonov Efekat predstavlja način na koji se naplaćuje dodatni porez svima koji rade za „nepromenjenu“ platu ili drže prvenstveno dolare ili eure kao deo svog bogatstva. Ovaj porez prenosi vrednost onima koji ulažu u finansijsku imovinu ili su preferirani dobavljači vlade. Bitcoin odvaja stvaranje novog novca od politike, čineći ovu situaciju mnogo poštenijom.

Kako Cantillonov Efekat Funkcioniše

Kada se poveća ponuda neke vrste novca, ima smisla da taj novi novac treba da ode u nečije ruke – ali čije? Da li bi trebao da pada kao kiša sa neba, da ga dobije neko na lutriji, ili ga predati posebnim interesnim grupama?

U našem savremenom monetarnom sistemu, ovaj novac nije uvek zajam za primaoce, tako da nekad ne trebaju da ga vrate.

Zabluda inflacije pomalo liči na MC Escher vodopad – dobro funkcioniše na papiru, ali ne govori skoro ništa korisno o tome kako stvarni svet funkcioniše.

Međutim, ova analiza zanemaruje to kako funkcionišu tržišta. Tamo gde novi novac ide prvo i način na koji se širi kroz ekonomiju, ima veliki uticaj na stvarno bogatstvo ljudi. Zašto? Kada se poveća novčana masa, cene se ne povećavaju odmah kao odraz ove činjenice. Umesto toga, povećavaju se polako, kako tržišta reaguju na novu ukupnu ponudu novca.

Prvi entiteti i ljudi koji prime novostvoreni novac mogu da ga potroše pre nego što je tržište reagovalo na bilo koji novi novac u sistemu prilagođavanjem cena. Kada oni kupuju stvari, dobijaju ih po niskim cenama jer cene još uvek ne podržavaju činjenicu da ima više novca u opticaju.

Jednom kada se novi novc nekoliko puta okrene, cene počinju da rastu, jer se više novčanih jedinica troši na isti broj dobara i usluga. Jedna od ‘cena’ u ekonomiji je plata ili zarada – i ova cena će da poraste, baš kao i sve druge. Međutim, ova cena raste sporije, kao rezultat ulaska novog novca u sistem, nego što je recimo, cena namirnica.

Kao rezultat ove neusklađenosti u vremenu porasta cena, oni koji primaju platu, tj. zaradu moraju da plaćaju više za svoje dnevne potrebe (poput namirnica), dok neko vreme primaju istu platu. Plate se prilagođavaju sporije od cena hrane. To dovodi do pada kupovne moći ljudi koji rade za platu..

Sve ovo proističe iz toga kako novi novac ulazi u sistem. Kada bi novi novac ušao u sistem samo putem zajmova direktno od centralne banke na plate ljudi, ti ljudi bi mogli da ga potroše pre nego što cene porastu, i samim tim bilo bi im bolje.

Na to kako raspodela novca utiče na bogatstvo, ukazao je Richard Cantillon u 18. veku, koji je gledao kako se ova dinamika odvija u Engleskoj kada je vlada štampala novac u njegovo vreme.

Izvrstan momak, g. Cantillon

Kako Bitcoin Rešava Nejednakost iz Cantillonovog Efekta

Da bismo razumeli kako Bitcoin rešava nejednakost, moramo da uporedimo kako se tradicionalne valute poput dolara ili eura distribuiraju u današnje vreme u odnosu na to kako se distribuiraju novi bitcoini.

Gotovo sva tradicionalna valuta koja je stvorena do današnjeg dana, prvo je distribuirana bankama i vladama. To je zato što su glavne komercijalne banke, poput JP Morgan i Citi, zauzvrat podržane od centralnih banaka poput Federalnih rezervi. Centralne banke poseduju ‘prese za štampanje’ – što znači da u svet mogu da ‘odštampaju’ (ili dodaju digitalno) neograničenu količinu svojih tradicionalnih valuta. Takođe su postavili pravila za komercijalne banke da ih podstaknu da pozajmljuju više ili manje dolara, što proširuje i ugovara ukupnu novčanu masu.

Budući da banke i vlade prve dobijaju novi novac, one odlučuju ko je drugi po redu koji može da iskoristi pogodnosti Cantillonovog Efekta. Tu na scenu dolaze lobisti, kao i moć koju donose njihove dobre konekcije sa finansijskom elitom. Lobisti osiguravaju da njihovi interesi imaju koristi od Cantillonovog Efekta, a veoma bogati, kao i korporacije, mogu da dobiju kredite od banaka po isplativim niskim kamatnim stopama.

Stvari mogu da se prilično zabrljaju kada vlada uskoči da preuzme “kontrolu” nad potrošnjom štampanog novca. Izvor: OpenDemocracy

Bitcoin-ov sistem eliminiše moć lobista i prednosti poznavanja pravog bankara, i stavlja ljude na mnogo ravnopravnije temelje. U Bitcoin-u, svaki ‘rudar’ na mreži ima jednake šanse da zaradi nagradu za novostvorene bitcoin-e na svakih 10 minuta. Svako može da postane rudar, jednostavnim kupovanjem hardvera i njegovim uključivanjem u utičnicu – daleko manje mukotrpan posao od lobiranja kod izabranih predstavnika da bi vam dodelili ugovor sa vladom. Rudari troše puno novca na električnu energiju i opremu da bi se takmičili za nagradu, a Bitcoin sistemu pružaju preko potrebnu uslugu: bezbednost. Bez rudara, Bitcoin-ov sistem ne bi funkcionisao.

Rudarenje bitcoin-a zahteva računar i struju – to je to.

U sistemu američkog dolara vidimo da političke veze proističu iz Cantillonovog Efekta. U Bitcoin sistemu vidimo da se pružaoci usluga (rudari) plaćaju za svoje usluge novostvorenim bitcoin-ima.

Naravno, ishodi Cantillonovog Efekta bi mogli da se promene tako što će političari da promene način na koji novi novac ulazi u sistem. Međutim, ovo ne rešava osnovni problem: neko drugi ima korist na tuđi račun.

Bitcoin sistem je daleko pravedniji jer koristi Cantillonov Efekat da bi uredno nagradio one koji pružaju korisnu uslugu za sve ostale: obezbeđivanje Bitcoin mreže.

Zamislite to ovako: u dolarskom sistemu, neka osoba šarmira političare ili bankare na pravim pozicijama da bi dobila povlašćen tretman na račun svih ostalih. U Bitcoin sistemu svi plaćaju po malo, da bi zaštitili svoje bankovne račune od krađe.

Uloga Vlade u Cantillonovom Efektu

Federalne vlade širom sveta su jedne od najvećih korisnika Cantillonovog Efekta, jer su u mogućnosti da vrlo lako dobiju zajmove od centralne banke svoje države. U SAD se to radi kada američko Ministarstvo finansija proda državne obveznice banci Federalnih rezervi. Federalne rezerve daju Ministarstvu finansija gomilu novoštampanog novca, a Ministarstvo finansija da Fed-u papir na kojem piše „mi ćemo vam isplatiti dug u to i to vreme sa određenom kamatom“. Možda je malo složenije od ovoga, ali to opisuje suštinu toga.

Budući da novac koji federalna vlada dobija nije postojao pre toga, ona može da ga potroši pre nego što cene počnu da rastu zbog tog novog novca koji ulazi u opticaj. To omogućava federalnoj vladi da ga troši na socijalne programe, policiju, vojsku, vojnu opremu za naoružavanje država poput Saudijske Arabije, čak i na ‘most iz nigde ka ničemu’, a da ne mora da koristi politički nepopularnu metodu: da poveća porez da bi to platila.

Umesto da povećaju poreske prihode za pokrivanje ove potrošnje, federalne vlade koriste Cantillonov Efekat za prenos kupovne moći od plata radnika srednje klase u vladin trezor. Na taj način inflacija i Cantillonov Efekat stvaraju skriveni porez na zarade i uštede novca.

Zaštitite Sebe od Cantillonovog Efekta

Zaštita svog života od Cantillonovog Efekta je zeznuta igra koju treba odigrati. Možete da pokušate da se približite izvoru novog novca, tako što ćete se nadmetati za državne ugovore ili raditi u vrhovima finansija. Možete da pokušate da igrate na visokim nivoima u trgovanju na berzi ili ulaganju u nekretnine, ali je verovatnije da ćete bankrotirati nego što ćete da se zaštitite.

Najlakši način da zaštitite sebe od nepravedne raspodele novog novca je potpuno odbijanje tog monetarnog sistema. Samo najstarije generacije koje danas žive mogu da se sete vremena kada je novac značio nešto drugo osim papira potkrepljenog ‘punom verom i kredibilitetom’ vlade i vojske. Mi smo tako uslovljeni da novac smatramo proizvodom naše vlade, ali naša zaštita od Cantillonovog Efekta zahteva gledanje novca kroz istoriju – čak i pre samo jednog veka.

Novac je nekada značio zlato – materijal koji nijedna vlada ne može magično da stvori u većoj količini, a koji zahteva ogroman napor da se pronađe i iskopa iz zemlje. Bitcoin je vrlo sličan zlatu po tome što niko ne može magično da ga stvori, i veoma ga je teško proizvesti više ‘rudarenjem’. Međutim, Bitcoin takođe putuje brzinom interneta, omogućavajući globalnu trgovinu na način na koji zlato jednostavno ne može.

Bitcoin i zlato – slični po karakteristikama ‘normalnog novca’, različiti po prenosivosti.

Da biste se zaštitili od Cantillonovog Efekta, potrebno je što je više moguće isključiti se iz nepravednih sistema tradicionalnih valuta, čuvajući bogatstvo u pravom novcu, poput zlata ili Bitcoin-a. Ovo je najmirniji način za ukidanje starog sistema i uvođenje novog, pravednijeg sistema.

Kako mogu da saznam više o Bitcoin-u?

Film "Bitkoin: Kraj novca kakvog poznajemo"

Još uvek je rano za Bitcoin

Zašto baš Bitcoin?

Šta je to Bitcoin?

The Bitcoin Whitepaper ← objavljen 2008. godine, ovo je izložio dizajn za Bitcoin.

Ako vam se sviđa moj rad, molim vas da ga podelite sa svojim prijateljima i porodicom. Cilj mi je da svima pružim uvid u ekonomiju i kako ona utiče na njihove živote.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni prevod na ecd.rs

Bitcoin: Peer-to-peer sistem elektronskog novca

Satoshi Nakamoto

satoshin@gmx.com

bitcoin.org

Prevedeno na srpski sa bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf od strane ECD

Sažetak. Potpuna peer-to-peer verzija elektronskog novca omogućila bi slanje uplata putem interneta direktno od jedne strane ka drugoj bez posredovanja finansijskih institucija. Digitalni potpisi pružaju deo rešenja, ali se glavni benefiti gube ako je i dalje potrebna pouzdana treća strana za sprečavanje dvostruke potrošnje. Predlažemo rešenje problema dvostruke potrošnje korišćenjem peer-to-peer mreže. Mreža vremenski označava transakcije tako što ih hešuje u tekući lanac dokaza o radu (proof of work) temeljen na hešu, formirajući zapis koji se ne može promeniti bez ponovnog rada i objavljivanja dokaza o tom radu. Najduži lanac ne služi samo kao dokaz niza događaja, nego i kao dokaz da je taj niz događaja potvrđen od strane dela peer-to-peer mreže koja poseduju najveću zbirnu procesorsku snagu (CPU). Sve dok većinu procesorske snage kontrolišu čvorovi (nodes) koji ne sarađuju u napadu na mrežu, oni će generisati najduži lanac i nadmašiti napadače. Sama mreža zahteva minimalnu strukturu. Poruke kroz mrežu se prenose uz pretpostavku da svaki čvor čini maksimalan napor da poruku prenese u svom izvornom obliku i na optimalan način, a čvorovi mogu napustiti mrežu i ponovo joj se pridružiti po želji, prihvatajući najduži lanac dokaza o radu kao dokaz onoga što se dogodilo dok ih nije bilo.

1. Uvod

Trgovina na Internetu počela je da se oslanja skoro isključivo na finansijske institucije koje služe kao pouzdani posrednici pri obradi elektronskih plaćanja. Iako sistem radi dovoljno dobro za većinu transakcija i dalje trpi od inherentnih slabosti modela utemeljenog na poverenju.

Potpuno nepovratne transakcije zapravo nisu moguće, jer finansijske institucije ne mogu izbeći posredovanje u rešavanju eventualnih sporova. Troškovi posredovanja povećavaju troškove transakcija, ograničavaju minimalnu praktičnu veličinu transakcija i onemogućuju male, povremene transakcije jer postoji velika šteta zbog gubitka mogućnosti da se izvrše nepovratna plaćanja za nepovratne usluge. Uz mogućnost povraćaja transakcije, potreba za poverenjem raste. Trgovci moraju biti oprezni prema svojim kupcima i tražiti im više informacija nego što bi inače bilo neophodno. Određeni procenat prevara prihvaćen je kao neizbežan. Ovi troškovi i nepouzdanost plaćanja mogu se izbeći korišćenjem gotovine, ali ne postoji mehanizam za elektronsko plaćanje bez pouzdane treće strane.

Ono što je potrebno je elektronski sistem plaćanja zasnovan na kriptografskom dokazu umesto na poverenju, koji omogućava da bilo koje dve strane direktno i dobrovoljno međusobno trguju bez potrebe za posrednikom. Transakcije koje su nepovratne bi zaštitile prodavce od prevara, a escrow mehanizmi mogli bi se lako implementirati radi zaštite kupaca. U ovom dokumentu predlažemo rešenje problema dvostruke potrošnje korišćenjem peer-to-peer distribuiranog servera vremenskih oznaka (timestamp) za generisanje računarskog dokaza o hronološkom redosledu transakcija. Sistem je siguran sve dok pošteni čvorovi zajedno kontrolišu više procesorske snage procesora nego bilo koja udružena grupa napadačkih čvorova.

2. Transakcije

Elektronski novčić definišemo kao lanac digitalnih potpisa. Svaki vlasnik prenosi novčić na sledećeg digitalnim potpisivanjem heša prethodne transakcije i javnog ključa sledećeg vlasnika, dodajući ih potom na kraj novčića. Primalac transakcije može da verifikuje potpise, a time i lanac vlasništva.

Problem je naravno u tome što primalac ne može potvrditi da jedan od prethodnih vlasnika nije dva puta poslao isti novčić. Uobičajeno rešenje je uvođenje pouzdanog centralizovanog posrednika, kreatora novčića koji proverava sve transakcije. Nakon svake transakcije, novčić se mora vratiti kreatoru kako bi se izdao novi novčić i veruje se da samo za novčiće izdate direktno od kreatora možemo biti sigurni da nisu dva puta potrošeni. Problem sa ovim rešenjem je što sudbina čitavog novčanog sistema zavisi od kompanije koja kreira novčiće, jer svaka transakcija mora da prođe kroz nju, baš kao što je slučaj sa bankom.

Treba nam način da primalac bude siguran da prethodni vlasnici nisu potpisali nikakve ranije transakcije kojim bi potrošili taj novčić. Za naše potrebe, računamo transakciju koja se prva desila i ne zanimaju nas naredni pokušaji da se isti novčić ponovo pošalje. Jedini način da sa sigurnošću potvrdimo da taj novčić nije prethodno bio poslat je da imamo informacije o svim transakcijama koje su se ikada desile. U modelu baziranom na centalizovan kreatoru, taj kreator je imao informacije o svim transakcijama i odlučivao koja transakcija je prva stigla. Da bismo to postigli bez pouzdanog posrednika, transakcije moraju biti javno objavljene [1] i potreban nam je sistem u kojem učesnici mogu da se dogovore o jedinstvenoj istoriji redosleda kojim su transakcije primljene. Primaocu je potreban dokaz da se u trenutku dešavanja svake od transakcija većina čvorova složila oko toga da je baš ta transakcija bila ona koja je prva primljena.

3. Server vremenskih oznaka

Rešenje koje predlažemo počinje serverom vremenskih oznaka. Server vremenske oznake radi tako što uzima heš bloka podataka kojem će se dodeliti vremenska oznaka i objavi taj heš svima u mreži, slično kao u novinama ili kao post na Usenet mreži [2-5]. Vremenska oznaka očigledno dokazuje da su podaci morali postojati u to vreme kako bi ušli u haš. Svaka vremenska oznaka sadrži prethodnu vremensku oznaku u svom hešu, formirajući tako lanac, pri čemu svaka dodatna vremenska oznaka pojačava potvrde onih pre nje.

4. Dokaz o radu (Proof-of-Work)

Da bismo implementirali distribuirani server vremenskih oznaka na peer-to-peer principu, moraćemo da koristimo sistem dokaza o radu sličan Hashcash-u Adama Back-a [6], umesto Uneset postova ili novinskih objava. Dokaz o radu uključuje traženje vrednosti koja će, kada se hešuje, na primer pomoću SHA-256 heš funkcije, stvarati heš čiji binarni zapis započinje određenim brojem nula. Prosečna količina potrebnog rada eksponencijalno raste sa brojem potrebnih početnih nula, a može se proveriti izvršavanjem samo jedne heš fuknkcije.

Za našu mrežu vremenskih oznaka implementiramo dokaz o radu povećavajući nonce broja u bloku sve dok se ne pronađe ona vrednost nonce-a koja daje hešu bloka potreban broj početnih nula. Jednom kada se procesorska snaga utroši kako bi se zadovoljio dokaz o radu, blok se ne može izmeniti bez ponovljenog rada. Kako se kasniji blokovi vežu na taj blok, rad potreban da se on izmeni uključivao bi i ponovno obrađivanje svih blokova nakon njega.

Dokaz o radu takođe rešava problem utvrđivanja većine pri odlučivanju. Ako bi se ​​većina zasnivala na principu jednog glasa po IP adresi, mogao bi je narušiti svako ko je u stanju da glasa sa više IP adresa odjednom. Dokaz o radu u osnovi predstavlja jedan glas po jedinici procesorske snage. Većinska odluka je predstavljena najdužim lancem u čije je stvaranje zapravo investirano najviše rada prilikom dokazivanja. Ako većinu procesorske snage kontrolišu pošteni čvorovi, pošten lanac će rasti najbrže i nadmašiće sve konkurentske lance. Da bi izmenio neki od prethodnih blokova, napadač bi morao da ponovi dokaz o radu za taj blok i sve blokove nakon njega, a zatim da sustigne i nadmaši količinu rada poštenih čvorova. Kasnije ćemo pokazati da se dodavanjem novih blokova eksponencijalno smanjuje verovatnoća da će sporiji napadač uspeti da sustigne pošteni lanac.

Da bi se kompenzovalo povećanje brzine hardvera i promenljivo interesovanje ljudi za vođenje čvorova tokom vremena, težina obavljanja dokaza o radu (proof-of-work difficulty) određuje se prema prosečnom broju blokova krairanih za sat vremena. Ako se blokovi stvaraju prebrzo, težina se povećava.

5. Mreža

Koraci za vođenje mreže su sledeći:

1) Nove transakcije se prosleđuju svim čvorovima u mreži. 2) Svaki čvor prikuplja nove transakcije u blok. 3) Svaki čvor radi na pronalaženju dokaza o radu dovoljnog nivoa težine za svoj blok. 4) Kada čvor pronađe dokaz o radu, on emituje taj blok ka svim čvorovima. 5) Čvorovi prihvataju blok samo ako su sve transakcije u njemu ispravne i nisu već potrošene. 6) Čvorovi izražavaju prihvatanje bloka radeći na stvaranju sledećeg bloka u lancu, koristeći heš prihvaćenog bloka kao prethodni heš.

Čvorovi uvek smatraju da je najduži lanac ispravan i nastaviće da rade na njegovom produžavanju. Ako dva čvora istovremeno emituju različite verzije sledećeg bloka, neki čvorovi prvo mogu primiti jedan ili drugi blok. U tom slučaju svaki čvor radi na prvom koji je dobio, ali čuvaju drugu kariku lanca u slučaju da ona postane duža. Dilema će biti rešena kada se pronađe sledeći dokaz o radu i jedna karika postane duža; čvorovi koji su radili na drugoj karici lanca će se prebaciti na dužu kariku.

Emitovanje novih transakcija ne mora nužno doći do svih čvorova. Sve dok stižu do velikog broja čvorova, te transakcije će ući u blok. Slično važi i za blokove, ni oni ne moraju doći odmah do svih čvorova. Ako neki čvor propusti da primi informaciju o bloku, kada mu stigne sledeći blok,primetiće da je propustio jedan, pa će ga tražiti naknadno.

6. Podsticaj

Po pravilu, prva transakcija u bloku je posebna transakcija koja kreira novi novčić u vlasništvu kreatora bloka. Ovo daje podsticaj čvorovima da podrže mrežu i pruža način za početnu ubacivanje novčića u opticaj, budući da ne postoji centralno telo koje ih izdaje. Stalno dodavanje konstantne količine novih novčića liči na rudarenje zlata, gde rudari ulažu resurse kako bi izrudarili nove količine zlata i ubacili ih u opticaj. U našem slučaju ulaže se procesorsko vreme i električna energija.

Podsticaj se takođe može finansirati i transakcionim naknadama. Ako je iznos izlaznog dela transakcije manji od ulaznog, razliku čini naknada za transakciju koja se dodaje iznosu nagrade za kreatora bloka koji sadrži tu transakciju. Nakon što predefinisani broj novčića uđe u opticaj, podsticaj mogu u potpunosti činiti transakcione naknade, čime se sistem oslobađa inflacije.

Čvorovi su na ovaj način podstaknuti da ostanu pošteni. Ako je pohlepni napadač u stanju da angažuje više procesorske snage od svih poštenih čvorova zajedno, morao bi da bira između toga da poništi svoje izvršene transakcije i time prevari ljude ili da procesorsku snagu koristi za stvaranje novih novčića. On bi trebalo bi uvidi da je isplativije igrati po pravilima koja ga nagrađuju sa više novih novčića od svi drugi zajedno, nego da potkopava sistem i vrednost sopstvenog bogatstva.

7. Oslobađanje prostora na hard disku

Kada je dovoljno blokova dodato nakon poslednje transakcije novčića, prethodne transakcije tog novčića se mogu odbaciti kako bi se uštedeo prostor na hard disku. Kako bi se to ostvarilo bez razbijanja heša bloka, transakcije su hešovane u Merkleovo stablo (Merkle Tree) [7] [2] [5], gde je samo koren uključen u heš bloka. Stari blokovi se tada mogu sabiti uklanjanjem nepotrebnih grana drveta. Unutrašnji heševi ne moraju biti skladišteni.

Zaglavlje bloka bez transakcija bilo bi oko 80 bajtova. Ako pretpostavimo da su blokovi generisani svakih 10 minuta, 80 bajtova * 6 * 24 * 365 = 4,2 MB godišnje. Imajući u vidu činjenicu da se u 2008. godini računari uglavnom prodaju sa oko 2 GB RAM-a i Murov zakon koji predviđa trenutni rast od 1,2 GB godišnje, skladištenje ne bi trebalo da predstavlja problem čak i ako se zaglavlja bloka moraju čuvati u memoriji.

8. Pojednostavljena verifikacija plaćanja

Moguće je verifikovati plaćanja bez vođenja čitavog mrežnog čvora. Korisnik samo treba da sačuva kopiju zaglavlja blokova najdužeg lanca dokaza o radu, do koje može doći upitom ka mrežnim čvorovima dok se ne uveri da je dobio najduži lanac i dobije Merkleova granu

koja povezuje transakciju sa blokom u koji je uneta vremenska oznaka za tu transakciju. Ne može samostalno proveriti transakciju, ali povezujući je sa mestom u lancu može videti da je prihvaćena od strane čvora mreže i da su na njen blok dodati naknadni blokovi što dalje potvrđuje da ju je mreža prihvatila.

Kao takva, verifikacija je pouzdana sve dok pošteni čvorovi kontrolišu mrežu, ali je ranjiva ako napadač nadjača ostatak mreže. Čvorovi mreže mogu sami proveriti transakcije, ali napadačeve lažne transakcije mogu zavarati one koji koriste pojednostavljenu metodu verifikacije transakcija sve dok je on u stanju da nadjačava ostatak mreže. Jedna od strategija zaštite bila bi prihvatanje upozorenja čvorova mreže kada otkriju nevažeći blok, pri čemu bi korisnikov softver morao da preuzme ceo blok i sporne transakcije kako bi potvrdio nepravilnost. Biznisi koji primaju česte uplate će verovatno želeti da pokrenu i vode sopstvene čvorove radi brže verifikacije i potrebe da im sigurnost ne zavisi od drugih.

9. Kombinovanje i deljenje vrednosti

Iako bi bilo moguće pojedinačno rukovati novčićima, bilo bi nezgrapno kreirati zasebnu transakciju za svaki cent u toj transferu. Da biste dozvolili podelu i kombinovanje vrednosti, transakcije sadrže više ulaza i izlaza. Obično će postojati ili jedan ulaz iz veće prethodne transakcije ili više unosa koji kombinuju manje iznose, a najviše dva izlaza: jedan za samo plaćanje, a jedan koji vraća kusur, ako ga ima, nazad pošiljaocu.

Treba napomenuti da situacija u kojoj transakcija zavisi od nekoliko drugih transakcija, a te transakcije zavise od još mnogo više, ovde nije problem. Nikada ne postoji potreba za izdvajanjem istorije pojedinačne transakcije.

10. Privatnost

Tradicionalni bankarski model postiže odgovarajući nivo privatnosti ograničavanjem pristupa informacijama na strane uključene u transakciju i posrednika. Neophodnost javnog objavljivanja svih transakcija isključuje mogućnost primene pomenutog modela, ali privatnost se i dalje može zadržati na drugi način: čuvanjem javnih ključeva (public keys) anonimnim. Javnost može videti da neko šalje iznos nekom drugom, ali bez informacija koje povezuju transakciju sa bilo kim. Ovo je slično količini informacija koje objavljuju berze, gde se vreme i veličina pojedinačnih trgovina čine javnim, ali bez navođenja ko su stranke uključene u tu trgovinu.

Kao dodatni zaštitni zid, preporučljivo je koristiti novi par ključeva za svaku transakciju, kako ne bi bili povezane sa zajedničkim vlasnikom. Neka povezivanja su i dalje neizbežna kod transakcija sa više ulaza, koje nužno otkrivaju da su njihovi ulazi bili u vlasništvu istog vlasnika. Rizik je taj da bi se otkrivanjem vlasnik ključa mogle otkriti i ostale transakcije koje su pripadale tom vlasniku.

11. Proračuni

Razmatramo scenario u kome napadač pokušava da generiše alternativni lanac brže od poštenog lanca. Čak i ako se to postigne, to ne omogućuje proizvoljne promene u sistemu, poput stvaranje vrednosti ni iz čega ili uzimanje novca koji nikada nije pripadao napadaču. Pošteni čvorovi neće prihvatiti nevažeće transakcije kao uplatu i nikada neće prihvatiti blok koji ih sadrži. Napadač može samo pokušati da promeni jednu od svojih transakcija kako bi vratio novac koji je nedavno potrošio.

Trka između poštenog lanca i lanca napadača može se predstaviti kao binomska distribucija slučajne diskretne varijable (Binomial Random Walk). Uspešni ishod je da se pošten lanac produži za jedan blok, povećavajući svoje vođstvo za +1, a neuspešni ishod je da se napadačev lanac produži za jedan blok, smanjujući zaostatak za -1.

Verovatnoću da napadač nadoknadi određeni deficit možemo izraziti kroz problem kockareve propasti (Gambler’s Ruin Problem). Pretpostavimo da kockar sa neograničenim iznosom novca počinje sa zaostatkom i igra potencijalno beskonačan broj ponovljenih igara u pokušaju da nadoknadi zaostatak. Možemo izračunati verovatnoću za nadoknađivanje zaostatka ili da će napadač stići pošten lanac, na sledeći način [8]:

p= verovatnoća da pošten čvor pronađe sledeći blok q= verovatnoća da napadač pronađe sledeći blok qz= verovatnoća da će napadač ikada dostići z blokova zaostatka

S obzirom na našu pretpostavku da je p > q, verovatnoća pada eksponencijalno kako se povećava broj blokova koje napadač mora da nadoknadi. Sa šansama protiv njega, ako mu se u početku ne posreći, njegove šanse postaju manje i manje sa povećanjem zaostatka.

Sada razmatramo koliko primalac nove transakcije treba da čeka pre nego što postane

dovoljno siguran da pošiljalac ne može promeniti transakciju. Pretpostavljamo da je pošiljalac napadač koji želi da natera primaoca da veruje da mu je platio, a zatim nakon nekog vremena tu transakciju preusmeri ka sebi. Primalac će primetiti kada se to dogodi, ali pošiljalac se nada da će tad već biti prekasno.

Primalac generiše novi par ključeva i daje javni ključ pošiljaocu neposredno pre potpisivanja transakcije. Ovo sprečava pošiljaoca da unapred pripremi lanac blokova radeći na njemu neprekidno dok mu se ne posreći da stekne dovoljnu prednost i u tom trenutku izvrši transakciju. Kada se transakcija pošalje, nepošteni pošiljalac počinje tajno da radi na paralelnom lancu koji sadrži alternativnu verziju njegove transakcije.

Primalac čeka dok transakcija ne bude dodata u blok, i dok z blokova nije dodato nakon tog bloka. On ne zna tačno koliko je napadač napredovao, ali pod pretpostavkom da su pošteni blokovi kreirani očekivanom dinamikom, potencijalni napredak napadača će biti prikazan kao Poasonova distribucija sa očekivanom vrednošću:

Kako bismo izračunali verovatnoću da napadač ipak može da nadoknadi zaostatak, množimo gustinu verovatnoće za svaki nivo napretka koji je mogao da ostvari sa verovatnoćom da od tog trenutka može da potpuno nadoknadi zaostatak:

Preuređujemo formulu kako bismo izbegli sabiranje beskonačnog broja sabiraka zbog repa distribucije:

I konvertujemo u programski kod u programskom jeziku C…

Kroz par primera, vidimo da verovatnoća opada eksponencijalno sa porastom z.

Rešavanje za P < 0.1%…

12. Zaključak

Predložili smo sistem za elektronske transakcije bez oslanjanja na poverenje. Počeli smo sa uobičajenim šablonom i novčićima nastalim iz digitalnih potpisa, koji pruža snažnu kontrolu nad vlasništvom, ali je nepotpun bez načina da se spreči dvostruka potrošnja. Kako bismo ovo rešili, predložili smo peer-to-peer mrežu koja koristi dokaz o radu za čuvanje javne istorije transakcija čija izmena napadačima brzo postaje računski nepraktična ako pošteni čvorovi kontrolišu većinu procesorske snage. Mreža je robusna u svojoj nestrukturiranoj jednostavnosti. Svi čvorovi rade istovremeno uz malo koordinacije. Ne treba ih identifikovati, jer se poruke ne usmeravaju na jedno određeno mesto nego samo trebaju biti prenete uz maksimalan napor od strane čvorova da se taj prenos odradi na predviđen način. Čvorovi mogu da napuste i ponovo se pridruže mreži po želji, prihvatajući lanac dokaza o radu kao dokaz onoga što se dogodilo dok ih nije bilo. Oni glasaju svojom procesorskom snagom, izražavajući svoje prihvatanje validnih blokova time što pokušavaju da ih nadgrade novim blokovima i odbacuju nevažeće blokove odbijanjem ih nadgrađuju. Sva potrebna pravila i podsticaji mogu se nametnuti ovim mehanizmom postizanja konsenzusa.

Reference:

[1] W. Dai, „b-money,“ weidai.com/bmoney.txt, 1998.

[2] H. Massias, X.S. Avila, and J.-J. Quisquater, „Design of a secure timestamping service with minimal trust requirements,“ In 20th Symposium on Information Theory in the Benelux, May 1999.

[3] S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, „How to time-stamp a digital document,“ In Journal of Cryptology, vol 3, no 2, pages 99-111, 1991.

[4] D. Bayer, S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, „Improving the efficiency and reliability of digital time-stamping,“ In Sequences II: Methods in Communication, Security and Computer Science, pages 329-334, 1993.

[5] S. Haber, W.S. Stornetta, „Secure names for bit-strings,“ In Proceedings of the 4th ACM Conference on Computer and Communications Security, pages 28-35, April 1997.

[6] A. Back, „Hashcash – a denial of service counter-measure,“ hashcash.org/papers/hashcash.pdf, 2002.

[7] R.C. Merkle, „Protocols for public key cryptosystems,“ In Proc. 1980 Symposium on Security and Privacy, IEEE Computer Society, pages 122-133, April 1980.

[8] W. Feller, „An introduction to probability theory and its applications,“ 1957.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na dvadesetjedan.com

Autor: Vijay Boyapati / Prevod na hrvatski: Matija

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Sa zadnjim cijenama koje je bitcoin dosegao 2017., optimističan scenarij za ulagače se možda čini toliko očitim da ga nije potrebno niti spominjati. Alternativno, možda se nekome čini glupo ulagati u digitalnu vrijednost koja ne počiva na nijednom fizičkom dobru ili vladi i čiji porast cijene su neki usporedili sa manijom tulipana ili dot-com balonom. Nijedno nije točno; optimističan scenarij za Bitcoin je uvjerljiv, ali ne i očit. Postoje značajni rizici kod ulaganja u Bitcoin, no, kao što planiram pokazati, postoji i ogromna prilika.

Geneza

Nikad u povijesti svijeta nije bilo moguće napraviti transfer vrijednosti među fizički udaljenim ljudima bez posrednika, poput banke ili vlade. 2008. godine, anonimni Satoshi Nakamoto je objavio 8 stranica rješenja na dugo nerješivi računalski problem poznat kao “Problem Bizantskog Generala.” Njegovo rješenje i sustav koji je izgradio - Bitcoin - dozvolio je, prvi put ikad, da se vrijednost prenosi brzo i daleko, bez ikakvih posrednika ili povjerenja. Implikacije kreacije Bitcoina su toliko duboke, ekonomski i računalski, da bi Nakamoto trebao biti prva osoba nominirana za Nobelovu nagradu za ekonomiju i Turingovu nagradu.

Za ulagače, važna činjenica izuma Bitcoina (mreže i protokola) je stvaranje novog oskudnog digitalnog dobra - bitcoina (monetarne jedinice). Bitcoini su prenosivi digitalni “novčići” (tokeni), proizvedeni na Bitcoin mreži kroz proces nazvan “rudarenje” (mining). Rudarenje Bitcoina je ugrubo usporedivo sa rudarenjem zlata, uz bitnu razliku da proizvodnja bitcoina prati unaprijed osmišljeni i predvidivi raspored. Samo 21 milijun bitcoina će ikad postojati, i većina (2017., kada je ovaj tekst napisan) su već izrudareni. Svake četiri godine, količina rudarenih bitcoina se prepolovi. Produkcija novih bitcoina će potpuno prestati 2140. godine.

Stopa inflacije —— Monetarna baza

Bitcoine ne podržava nikakva roba ili dobra, niti ih garantira ikakva vlada ili firma, što postavlja očito pitanje za svakog novog bitcoin ulagača: zašto imaju uopće ikakvu vrijednost? Za razliku od dionica, obveznica, nekretnina ili robe poput nafte i žita, bitcoine nije moguće vrednovati koristeći standardne ekonomske analize ili korisnost u proizvodnji drugih dobara. Bitcoini pripadaju sasvim drugoj kategoriji dobara - monetarnih dobara, čija se vrijednost definira kroz tzv. teoriju igara; svaki sudionik na tržištu vrednuje neko dobro, onoliko koliko procjenjuje da će ga drugi sudionici vrednovati. Kako bismo bolje razumjeli ovo svojstvo monetarnih dobara, trebamo istražiti podrijetlo novca.

Podrijetlo novca

U prvim ljudskim društvima, trgovina među grupama se vršila kroz robnu razmjenu. Velika neefikasnost prisutna u robnoj razmjeni je drastično ograničavala količinu i geografski prostor na kojem je bila moguća. Jedan od najvećih problema sa robnom razmjenom je problem dvostruke podudarnosti potražnje. Uzgajivač jabuka možda želi trgovati sa ribarom, ali ako ribar ne želi jabuke u istom trenutku, razmjena se neće dogoditi. Kroz vrijeme, ljudi su razvili želju za čuvanjem određenih predmeta zbog njihove rijetkosti i simbolične vrijednosti (npr. školjke, životinjski zube, kremen). Zaista, kako i Nick Szabo govori u svojem izvrsnom eseju o podrijetlu novca, ljudska želja za sakupljanjem predmeta pružila je izraženu evolucijsku prednost ranom čovjeku nad njegovim najbližim biološkim rivalom, neandertalcem - Homo neanderthalensis.

"Primarna i najbitnija evolucijska funkcija sakupljanja bila je osigurati medij za čuvanje i prenošenje vrijednosti".

Predmeti koje su ljudi sakupljali služili su kao svojevrsni “proto-novac,” tako što su omogućavale trgovinu među antagonističkim plemenima i dozvoljavale bogatsvu da se prenosi na sljedeću generaciju. Trgovina i transfer takvih predmeta bile su rijetke u paleolitskim društvima, te su oni služili više kao “spremište vrijednosti” (store of value) nego kao “medij razmjene” (medium of exchange), što je uloga koju danas igra moderni novac. Szabo objašnjava:

"U usporedbi sa modernim novcem, primitivan novac je imao jako malo “brzinu” - mogao je promijeniti ruke samo nekoliko puta u životu prosječnog čovjeka. Svejedno, trajni i čvrsti sakupljački predmet, što bismo danas nazvali “nasljeđe,” mogao je opstati mnogo generacija, dodajući znatnu vrijednost pri svakom transferu - i zapravo omogućiti transfer uopće".

Rani čovjek suočio se sa bitnom dilemom u teoriji igara, kada je odlučivao koje predmete sakupljati: koje od njih će drugi ljudi željeti? Onaj koji bi to točno predvidio imao bi ogromnu prednost u mogućnosti trgovine i akvizicije bogatsva. Neka američka indijanska plemena, npr. Naraganseti, specijalizirala su se u proizvodnji sakupljačkih dobara koja nisu imala drugu svrhu osim trgovine. Valja spomenuti da što je ranije predviđanje da će neko dobro imati takvu vrijednost, veća je prednost koju će imati onaj koji je posjeduje, zato što ju je moguće nabaviti jeftinije, prije nego postane vrlo tražena roba i njezona vrijednost naraste zajedno sa populacijom. Nadalje, nabava nekog dobra u nadi da će u budućnosti biti korišteno kao spremište vrijednosti, ubrzava upravo tu primjenu. Ova cirkularnost je zapravo povratna veza (feedback loop) koja potiče društva da se rapidno slože oko jednog spremišta vrijednosti. U terminima teorije igara, ovo je znano kao “Nashov ekvilibrij.” Postizanje Nashovog ekvilibrija za neko spremište vrijednosti je veliko postignuće za društvo, pošto ono znatno olakšava trgovinu i podjelu rada, i time omogućava napredak civilizacije.

Tisućljećima, kako su ljudska društva rasla i otvarala trgovinske puteve, različite aplikacije spremišta vrijednosti u individualnim društvima počele su se natjecati međusobno. Trgovci su imali izbor: čuvati svoju zaradu u spremištu vrijednosti vlastite kulture, ili one kulture sa kojom su trgovali, ili mješavini oboje. Benefit štednje u stranom spremištu vrijednosti bila je uvećana sposobnost trgovanja u povezanom stranom društvu. Trgovci koji su štedili u stranom spremištu vrijednosti su također imali dobrih razloga da potiču svoje društvo da ga prihvati, jer bi tako uvećali vrijednost vlastite ušteđevine. Prednosti “uvezene” tehnologije spremanja vrijednosti bile su prisutne ne samo za trgovce, nego i za sama društva. Kada bi se dvije grupe konvergirale u jedinstvenom spremištu vrijednosti, to bi značajno smanjilo cijenu troškova trgovine jednog s drugim, i samim time povećanje bogatstva kroz trgovinu. I zaista, 19. stoljeće bilo je prvi put da je najveći dio svijeta prihvatio jedinstveno spremište vrijednosti - zlato - i u tom periodu vidio najveću eksploziju trgovine u povijesti svijeta. O ovom mirnom periodu, pisao je John Maynard Keynes:

"Kakva nevjerojatna epizoda u ekonomskom napretku čovjeka… za svakog čovjeka iole iznadprosječnog, iz srednje ili više klase, život je nudio obilje, ugodu i mogućnosti, po niskoj cijeni i bez puno problema, više nego monarsima iz prethodnih perioda. Stanovnik Londona mogao je, ispijajući jutarnji čaj iz kreveta, telefonski naručiti razne proizvode iz cijele Zemlje, u količinama koje je želio, i sa dobrim razlogom očekivati njihovu dostavu na svoj kućni prag."

Svojstva dobrog spremišta vrijednosti

Kada se spremišta vrijednosti natječu jedno s drugim, specifična svojstva rade razliku koja daje jednom prednost nad drugim. Premda su mnoga dobra u prošlosti korištena kao spremišta vrijednosti ili kao “proto-novac,” određena svojstva su se pokazala kao posebno važna, i omogućila dobrima sa njima da pobijede. Idealno spremište vrijednosti biti će:

• Trajno: dobro ne smije biti kvarljivo ili lako uništeno. Tako naprimjer, žito nije idealno spremište vrijednosti.
• Prenosivo: dobro mora biti lako transportirati i čuvati, što omogućuje osiguranje protiv gubitka ili krađe i dopušta trgovinu na velike udaljenosti. Tako, krava je lošije spremište vrijednosti od zlatne narukvice.
• Zamjenjivo: jedna jedinica dobra treba biti zamjenjiva sa drugom. Bez zamjenjivosti, problem podudarnosti želja ostaje nerješiv. Time, zlato je bolje od dijamanata, jer su oni nepravilni u obliku i kvaliteti.
• Provjerljivo: dobro mora biti lako i brzo identificirano i testirano za autentičnost. Laka provjera povećava povjerenje u trgovini i vjerojatnost da će razmjena biti dovršena.
• Djeljivo: dobro mora biti lako djeljivo na manje dijelove. Premda je ovo svojstvo bilo manje važno u ranim društvima gdje je trgovina bila rijetka, postalo je važnije sa procvatom trgovine. Količine koje su se mijenjale postale su manje i preciznije.
• Oskudno: Monetarno dobro mora imati “cijenu nemoguću za lažirati,” kao što je rekao Nick Szabo. Drugim riječima, dobro ne smije biti obilno ili lako dostupno kroz proizvodnju. Oskudnost je možda i najvažnije svojstvo spremišta vrijednosti, pošto se izravno vezuje na ljudsku želju da sakupljamo ono što je rijetko. Ona je izvor vrijednosti u spremištu vrijednosti.
• Duge povijesti: što je dulje neko dobro vrijedno za društvo, veća je vjerojatnost da će biti prihvaćeno kao spremište vrijednosti. Dugo postojeće spremište vrijednosti biti će jako teško uklonjeno od strane došljaka, osim u slučaju sile (ratno osvajanje) ili ako je nova tehnologija znatno bolja u ostalim svojstvima.
• Otporno na cenzuru: novije svojstvo, sve više važno u modernom digitalnom svijetu sa sveprisutnim nadzorom, je otpornost na cenzuru. Drugim riječima, koliko je teško da vanjski agent, kao korporacija ili država, spriječi vlasnika dobra da ga čuva i koristi. Dobra koja su otporna na cenzuru su idealna za ljude koji žive u režimima koji prisilno nadziru kapital ili čine neke oblike mirne trgovine protuzakonitima.

Ova tablica ocjenjuje Bitcoin, zlato (gold) i fiat novac (kao što je euro ili dolar) po svojstvima izlistanim gore. Objašnjenje svake ocjene slijedi nakon tablice.

Trajnost:

Zlato je neosporeni kralj trajnosti. Velika većina zlata pronađenog kroz povijest, uključujući ono egipatskih faraona, opstaje i danas i vjerojatno će postojati i za tisuću godina. Zlatnici korišteni u antičko doba imaju značajnu vrijednost i danas. Fiat valute i bitcoini su digitalni zapisi koji ponekad imaju fizički oblik (npr. novčanice). Dakle, njihovu trajnost ne određuju njihova fizička svojstva (moguće je zamijeniti staru i oštećenu novčanicu za novu), nego institucije koje stoje iza njih. U slučaju fiat valuta, mnoge države su nastale i nestale kroz stoljeća, i valute su nestale s njima. Marke iz Weimarske republike danas nemaju vrijednost zato što institucija koja ih je izdavala više ne postoji. Ako je povijest ikakav pokazatelj, ne bi bilo mudro smatrati fiat valute trajnima dugoročno; američki dolar i britanska funta su relativne anomalije u ovom pogledu. Bitcoini, zato što nemaju instituciju koja ih održava, mogu se smatrati trajnima dok god mreža koja ih osigurava postoji. Obzirom da je Bitcoin još uvijek mlada valuta, prerano je za čvrste zaključke o njegovoj trajnosti. No, postoje ohrabrujući znakovi - prominente države su ga pokušavale regulirati, hakeri ga napadali - usprkos tome, mreža nastavlja funkcionirati, pokazujući visok stupanj antifragilnosti.

Prenosivost:

Bitcoini su najprenosivije spremište vrijednosti ikad. Privatni ključevi koji predstavljaju stotine milijuna dolara mogu se spremiti na USB drive i lako ponijeti bilo gdje. Nadalje, jednako velike sume mogu se poslati na drugi kraj svijeta skoro instantno. Fiat valute, zbog svojeg temeljno digitalnog oblika, su također lako prenosive. Ali, regulacije i kontrola kapitala od strane države mogu ugroziti velike prijenose vrijednosti, ili ih usporiti danima. Gotovina se može koristiti kako bi se izbjegle kontrole kapitala, ali onda rastu rizik čuvanja i cijena transporta. Zlato, zbog svojeg fizičkog oblika i velike gustoće, je najmanje prenosivo. Nije čudo da većina zlatnika i poluga nikad ne napuste sefove. Kada se radi prijenos zlata između prodavača i kupca, uglavnom se prenosi samo ugovor o vlasništvu, ne samo fizičko zlato. Prijenos fizičkog zlata na velike udaljenosti je skupo, riskantno i sporo.

Zamjenjivost:

Zlato nam daje standard za zamjenjivost. Kada je rastopljeno, gram zlata je praktički nemoguće razlikovati od bilo kojeg drugog grama, i zlato je oduvijek bilo takvo. S druge strane, fiat valute, su zamjenjive samo onoliko koliko njihova institucija želi da budu. Iako je uglavnom slučaj da je novčanica zamjenjiva za drugu istog iznosa, postoje situacije u kojima su velike novčanice tretirane drukčije od malih. Naprimjer, vlada Indije je, u pokušaju da uništi neoporezivo sivo tržište, potpuno oduzela vrijednost novčanicama od 500 i 1000 rupija. To je uzrokovalo da ljudi manje vrednuju te novčanice u trgovini, što je značilo da više nisu bile zaista zamjenjive za manje novčanice. Bitcoini su zamjenjivi na razini mreže; svaki bitcoin je pri prijenosu tretiran kao svaki drugi. No, zato što je moguće pratiti individualne bitcoine na blockchainu, određeni bitcoin može, u teoriji, postati “prljav” zbog korštenja u ilegalnoj trgovini, te ga trgovci ili mjenjačnice možda neće htjeti prihvatiti. Bez dodatnih poboljšanja oko privatnosti i anonimnosti na razini mrežnog protokola, bitcoine ne možemo smatrati jednako zamjenjivim kao zlato.

Mogućnost provjere:

Praktično gledajući, autentičnost fiat valuta i zlata je prilično lako provjeriti. Svejedno, i usprkos pokušajima da spriječe krivotvorenje novčanica, i dalje postoji potencijal prevare za vlade i njihove građane. Zlato također nije imuno na krivotvorenje. Sofisticirani kriminalci su koristili pozlaćeni tungsten kako bi prevarili kupce zlata. Bitcoine je moguće provjeriti sa matematičkom sigurnošću. Korištenjem kriptografskih potpisa, vlasnik bitcoina može javno demonstrirati da posjeduje bitcoine koje tvrdi da posjeduje.

Djeljivost:

Bitcoine je moguće podijeliti u stotinu milijuna manjih jedinica (zvanih satoshi), i prenositi takve (no, valja uzeti u obzir ekonomičnost prijenosa malih iznosa, zbog cijene osiguravanja mreže - “network fee”). Fiat valute su tipično dovoljno djeljive na jedinice sa vrlo niskom kupovnom moći. Zlato, iako fizički i teoretski djeljivo, postaje teško za korištenje kada se podijeli na dovoljno male količine da bi se moglo koristiti u svakodnevnoj trgovini.

Oskudnost:

Svojstvo koje najjasnije razlikuje Bitcoin od fiat valuta i zlata je njegova unaprijed definirana oskudnost. Od početka, konačna količina bitcoina nikad neće biti veća od 21 milijun. To daje vlasnicima bitcoina jasan i znan uvid u postotak ukupnog vlasništva. Naprimjer, vlasnik 10 bitcoina bi znao da najviše 2,1 milijuna ljudi (manje od 0.03% populacije) može ikad imati isto bitcoina kao i on. Premda je kroz povijest uvijek bilo oskudno, zlato nije imuno na povećanje ukupne količine. Ako se ikad izumi nova, ekonomičnija metoda rudarenja ili proizvodnje zlata, ukupna količina zlata bi se mogla dramatično povećati (npr. rudarenje morskog dna ili asteroida). Na kraju, fiat valute, relativno nov izum u povijesti, pokazale su se sklonima konstantnim povećanjima u količini. Države su pokazale stalnu sklonost inflaciji monetarne kvantitete kako bi rješavale kratkoročne političke probleme. Inflacijske tendencije vlada diljem svijeta čine fiat valute gotovo sigurnim da će gubiti vrijednost kroz vrijeme.

Etablirana povijest:

Nijedno monetarno dobro nema povijest kao zlato, koje je imalo vrijednost za cijelog trajanja ljudske civilizacije. Kovanice izrađene u antičko doba i danas imaju značajnu vrijednost. Ne može se isto reći za fiat valute, koje su same relativno nova povijesna anomalija. Od njihovog početka, fiat valute su imale gotovo univerzalni smjer prema bezvrijednosti. Korištenje inflacije kao podmuklog načina za nevidljivo oporezivanje građana je vječita kušnja kojoj se skoro nijedna država u povijesti nije mogla oduprijeti. Ako je 20. stoljeće, u kojem je fiat novac dominirao globalni monetarni poredak, demonstriralo neku ekonomsku istinu, to je onda bila ta da ne možemo računati na fiat novac da održi vrijednost u dužem ili srednjem vremenskom periodu. Bitcoin, usprkos svojoj novosti, je preživio dovoljno testova tržišta da postoji velika vjerojatnost da neće nestati kao vrijedno dobro. Nadalje, Lindy efekt govori da što duže Bitcoin bude korišten, to će veća biti vjera u njega i njegovu sposobnost da nastavi postojati dugo u budućnost. Drugim riječima, društvena vjera u monetarno dobro je asimptotička, kao u grafu ispod:

Ako Bitcoin preživi prvih 20 godina, imat će gotovo sveopće povjerenje da će trajati zauvijek, kao što ljudi vjeruju da je internet trajna stvar u modernom svijetu.

Otpor na cenzuru

Jedan od najbitnijih izvora za ranu potražnju bitcoina bila je njegova upotreba u ilegalnoj kupovini i prodaji droge. Mnogi su zato pogrešno zaključili da je primarna potražnja za bitcoinima utemeljena u njihovoj prividnoj anonimnosti. Međutim, Bitcoin nije anonimna valuta; svaka transakcija na mreži je zauvijek zapisana na javnom blockchainu. Povijesni zapis transakcija dozvoljava forenzičkoj analizi da identificira izvore i tijek sredstava. Takva analiza dovela je do uhićenja počinitelja zloglasne MtGox pljačke. Premda je istina da dovoljno oprezna i pedantna osoba može sakriti svoj identitet koristeći Bitcoin, to nije razlog zašto je Bitcoin bio toliko popularan u trgovini drogom.

Ključno svojstvo koje čini Bitcoin najboljim za takve aktivnosti je njegova agnostičnost i nepotrebnost za dozvolom (“premissionlessness”) na mrežnoj razini. Kada se bitcoini prenose na Bitcoin mreži, ne postoji nitko tko dopušta transakcije. Bitcoin je distribuirana peer-to-peer (korisnik-korisniku) mreža, i samim time dizajnirana da bude otporna na cenzuru. Ovo je u velikom kontrastu sa fiat bankarskim sustavom, u kojem države reguliraju banke i ostale institucije prijenosa novca, kako bi one prijavljivale i sprječavale protuzakonito korištenje monetarnih dobara. Klasičan primjer regulacije novca su kontrole kapitala. Npr., bogati milijunaš će vrlo teško prenijeti svoje bogatstvo u novu zemlju, kada bježi iz opresivnog režima. Premda zlato nije izdano i proizvedeno od države, njegova fizička priroda ga čini teško prenosivim kroz prostor, i samim time ga je daleko lakše regulirati nego Bitcoin. Indijski Akt kontrole zlata je primjer takve regulacije.

Bitcoin je odličan u većini gore navedenih svojstava, što mu omogućava da bude marginalno bolji od modernih i drevnih monetarnih dobara, te da pruži poticaje za svoje rastuće društveno usvajanje. Specifično, moćna kombinacija otpornosti na cenzuru i apsolutne oskudnosti bila je velika motivacija za bogate ulagače koji su uložili dio svojeg bogatstva u Bitcoin.

Evolucija novca

U modernoj monetarnoj ekonomiji postoji opsesija sa ulogom novca kao medija razmjene. U 20. stoljeću, države su monopolizirale izdavanje i kontrolu novca i kontinuirano potkopavale njegovo svojstvo spremišta vrijednosti, stvarajući lažno uvjerenje da je primarna svrha novca biti medij razmjene. Mnogi su kritizirali Bitcoin, govoreći da je neprikladan da bude novac zato što mu je cijena bila previše volatilna za medij razmjene. No, novac je uvijek evoluirao kroz etape; uloga spremišta vrijednosti je dolazila prije medija razmjene. Jedan od očeva marginalističke ekonomije, William Stanley Jevons, objašnjava:

"Povijesno govoreći… čini se da je zlato prvo služilo kao luksuzni metal za ukras; drugo, kao sačuvana vrijednost; treće, kao medij razmjene; i konačno, kao mjerilo vrijednosti."

U modernoj terminologiji, novac uvijek evoluira kroz četiri stadija:

1. Kolekcionarstvo: U prvoj fazi svoje evolucije, novac je tražen samo zbog svojih posebnih svojstava, uglavnom zbog želja onog koji ga posjeduje. Školjke, perlice i zlato su bili sakupljani prije nego su poprimili poznatije uloge novca.
2. Spremište vrijednosti: Jednom kada je novac tražen od dovoljnog broja ljudi, biti će prepoznat kao način za čuvanje i spremanje vrijednosti kroz vrijeme. Kada neko dobro postane široko korišteno kao spremište vrijednosti, njegova kupovna moć raste sa povećanom potražnjom za tu svrhu. Kupovna moć spremišta vrijednosti će u jednom trenutku doći do vrhunca, kada je dovolno rašireno i broj novih ljudi koji ga potražuju splasne.
3. Sredstvo razmjene: Kada je novac potpuno etabliran kao spremište vrijednosti, njegova kupovna moć se stabilizira. Nakon toga, postane prikladno sredstvo razmjene zbog stabilnosti svoje cijene. U najranijim danima Bitcoina, mnogi ljudi nisu shvaćali koju buduću cijenu plaćaju koristeći bitcoine kao sredstvo razmjene, umjesto kao novonastalo spremište vrijednosti. Poznata priča o čovjeku koji je za 10,000 bitcoina (vrijednih oko 94 milijuna dolara kada je ovaj članak napisan) za dvije pizze ilustrira ovaj problem.
4. Jedinica računanja vrijednosti: Jednom kada je novac široko korišten kao sredstvo razmjene, dobra će biti vrednovana u njemu, tj. većina cijena će biti izražena u njemu. Uobičajena zabluda je da je većinu dobara moguće zamijeniti za bitcoine danas. Npr., premda je možda moguće kupiti šalicu kave za bitcoine, izlistana cijena nije prava bitcoin cijena; zapravo se radi o cijeni u državnoj valuti koju želi trgovac, preračunatu u bitcoin po trenutnoj tržišnoj cijeni. Kad bi cijena bitcoina pala u odnosu na valutu, vrijednost šalice izražena u bitcoinima bi se povećala. Od trenutka kada trgovci budu voljni prihvaćani bitcoine kao platežno sredstvo, bez obraćanja pažnje na vrijednost bitcoina u državnoj fiat valuti, moći ćemo reći da je Bitcoin zaista postao jedinica računanja vrijednosti.

Monetarna dobra koja još nisu jedinice računanja vrijednosti možemo smatrati “djelomično monetiziranima.” Danas zlato ima takvu ulogu, jer je spremište vrijednosti, ali su mu uloge sredstva razmjene i računanja vrijednosti oduzete intervencijama država. Moguće je također da se jedno dobro koristi kao sredstvo razmjene, dok druga ispunjavaju ostale uloge. To je tipično u zemljama gdje je država disfunkcionalna, npr. Argentina ili Zimbabwe. U svojoj knjizi, Digitalno zlato, Nathaniel Popper piše:

"U Americi, dolar služi trima funkcijama novca: nudi sredstvo razmjene, jedinicu za mjerenje vrijednosti dobara, i mjesto gdje se može čuvati vrijednosti. S druge strane, argentinski peso je korišten kao sredstvo razmjene (za svakodnevne potrebe), ali ga nitko nije koristio kao spremište vrijednosti. Štednja u pesosima bila je ekvivalent bacanja novca. Zato su ljudi svu svoju štednju imali u dolarima, jer je dolar bolje čuvao vrijednost. Zbog volatilnosti pesosa, ljudi su računali cijene u dolarima, što im je pružalo pouzdaniju jedinicu mjerenja kroz vrijeme."

Bitcoin je trenutno u fazi tranzicije iz prvog stadija monetizacije u drugi. Vjerojatno će proći nekoliko godina prije nego Bitcoin pređe iz začetaka spremišta vrijednosti u istinski medij razmjene, i put do tog trenutka je još uvijek pun rizika i nesigurnosti. Važno je napomenuti da je ista tranzicija trajala mnogo stoljeća za zlato. Nitko danas živ nije doživio monetizaciju dobra u realnom vremenu (kroz koju Bitcoin prolazi), tako da nemamo puno iskustva govoriti o putu i načinu na koji će se monetizacija dogoditi.

Put monetizacije

Kroz proces monetizacije, monetarno dobro će naglo porasti u kupovnoj moći. Mnogi su tako komentirali da je uvećanje kupovne moći Bitcoina izgledalo kao “balon” (bubble). Premda je ovaj termin često korišten kako bi ukazao na pretjeranu vrijednosti Bitcoina, sasvim slučajno je prikladan. Svojstvo koje je uobičajeno za sva monetarna dobra jest da je njihova kupovna moć viša nego što se može opravdati samo kroz njihovu uporabnu vrijednost. Zaista, mnogi povijesni novci nisu imali uporabnu vrijednost. Razliku između kupovne moći i vrijednosti razmjene koju bi novac mogao imati za svoju inherentnu korisnost, možemo razmatrati kao “monetarnu premiju.” Kako monetarno dobro prolazi kroz stadije monetizacije (navedene gore), monetarna premija raste. No, ta premija ne raste u ravnoj i predvidivoj liniji. Dobro X, koje je bilo u procesu monetizacije, može izgubiti u usporedbi sa dobrom Y koje ima više svojstava novca, te monetarna premija dobra X drastično padne ili potpuno nestane. Monetarna premija srebra je skoro potpuno nestala u kasnom 19. stoljeću, kada su ga vlade diljem svijeta zamijenile zlatom kao novcem.

Čak i u odsustvu vanjskih faktora, kao što su intervencije vlade ili druga monetarna dobra, monetarna premija novog novca neće ići predvidivim putem. Ekonomist Larry White primijetio je:

"problem sa pričom “balona,” naravno, je da je ona konzistentna sa svakim putem cijene, i time ne daje ikakvo objašnjenje za specifičan put cijene"

Proces monetizacije opisuje teorija igara; svaki akter na tržištu pokušava predvidjeti agregiranu potražnju ostalih aktera, i time buduću monetarnu premiju. Zato što je monetarna premija nevezana za inherentnu korisnost, tržišni akteri se uglavnom vode za prošlim cijenama da bi odredili je li neko dobro jeftino ili skupo, i žele li ga kupiti ili prodati. Veza trenutne potražnje sa prošlim cijenama naziva se “ovisnost o putu” (path dependence); ona je možda najveći izvor konfuzije u shvaćanju kretanja cijena monetarnih dobara.

Kada kupovna moć monetarnog dobra naraste zbog većeg i šireg korištenja, očekivanja tržišta o definicijama “jeftinog” i “skupog” se mijenjaju u skladu s time. Slično tome, kada cijena monetarnog dobra padne, očekivanja tržišta mogu se promijeniti u opće vjerovanje da su prethodne cijene bile “iracionalne” ili prenapuhane. Ovisnost o putu novca ilustrirana je riječima poznatog upravitelja fondova s Wall Streeta, Josha Browna:

"Kupio sam bitcoine kada su koštali 2300 USD, i to mi se udvostručilo gotovo odmah. Onda sam počeo govoriti kako “ne mogu kupiti još” dok im je cijena rasla, premda sam znao da je to razmišljanje bazirano samo na cijenu po kojoj sam ih kupio. Kasnije, kada je cijena pala zbog kineske regulacije mjenjačnica, počeo sam si govoriti, “Odlično, nadam se da će još pasti da mogu kupiti još.”"

Istina leži u tome da su ideje “jeftinog” i “skupog” zapravo besmislene kada govorimo o monetarnim dobrima. Cijena monetarnog dobra ne reflektira njegovu stopu rasprostanjenosti ili korisnosti, nego mjeru koliko je ono široko prihvaćeno da ispuni razne uloge novca.

Dodatna komplikacija u ovom aspektu novca je činjenica da tržišni akteri ne djeluju samo kao nepristrani promatrači koji pokušavaju kupiti i prodati u iščekivanju budućih kretanja monetarne premije, nego i kao aktivni proponenti. Pošto ne postoji objektivno “točna” monetarna premija, širiti dobar glas o superiornijim svojstvima nekog monetarnog dobra je efektivnije nego za obična dobra, čija vrijednost je u konačnici vezana na njegovu osnovnu korisnost. Religiozni zanos sudionika na Bitcoin tržištu vidljiv je na raznim internetskim forumima, gdje Bitcoineri aktivno promoviraju benefine Bitcoina i bogatstvo koje je moguće ostvariti investiranjem u njega. Promatrajući Bitcoin tržište, Leigh Drogen komentira:

"To je prepoznatljivo svima kao religija - priča koju si pričamo i oko koje se slažemo. Religija je krivulja na grafu prihvaćanja o kojoj trebamo razmišljati. Sustav je gotovo savršen - onog trenutka kada netko pristupi krugu Bitcoinera, to će reći svima i nastaviti širiti riječ. Onda njihovi prijatelji pristupe i nastave širiti riječ."

Premda usporedba sa religijom može staviti Bitcoin u iracionalno svjetlo, potpuno je racionalno za individualnog vlasnika da širi dobru vijest o superiornom monetarnom dobru, i za šire društvo da se standardizira oko njega. Novac djeluje kao temelj za svu trgovinu i štednju; tako da prihvaćanje superiornog oblika novca ima ogromne multiplicirajuće benefite za stvaranje bogatstva za sve članove društva.

Oblik monetizacije

U članku o Spekulativnom prihvaćanju Bitcoina / teorije cijene, Michael Casey postulira da rastući Gartner hype ciklusi predstavljaju faze standardne S-krivulje prihvaćanja novih tehnologija, koje su bile prisutne kod mnogih transformacijskih tehnologija dok su postajale uobičajene u društvu.

Svaki Gartner hype ciklus počinje sa eksplozijom entuzijazma za novom tehnologijom, a cijenu podižu oni sudionici na tržištvu koji su “dostupni” u toj fazi. Najraniji kupci u Gartner hype ciklusu obično imaju jaku vjeru o transformacijskoj prirodi tehnologije u koju ulažu. S vremenom, tržište dosegne vrhunac entuzijazma kako se količina novih kupaca iscrpljuje, te kupovinom počnu dominirati spekulatori koji su više zainteresirani u brze profite nego u samu tehnologiju.

Nakon vrha hype ciklusa, cijene rapidno padaju dok spekulativno ludilo ustupa mjesto očajavanju, javnoj poruzi i osjećaju da tehnologija nije uopće bila transformacijska. S vremenom, cijena dosegne dno i formira plato na kojem se originalnim ulagačima, koji su imali snažno uvjerenje, pridružuju nove grupe ljudi koji su izdržali bol kraha cijena i koji cijene važnost same tehnologije.

Plato traje neko vrijeme i formira, kako Casey kaže, “stabilnu, dosadnu dolinu.” Za ovo vrijeme, javni interes za tehnologiju opada, no nastaviti će se razvijati i snažna zajednica uvjerenja će polako rasti. Tada, postavlja se nova baza za sljedeću iteraciju hype ciklusa, dok vanjski promatrači prepoznaju da tehnologija i dalje postoji i da ulaganje u nju možda nije onoliko rizično kao što se činilo za vrijeme pada cijene. Sljedeća iteracija hype ciklusa donosi mnogo veći broj novih ljudi, pa je i ciklus daleko veći u svojoj magnitudi.

Jako mali broj ljudi koji sudjeluju u Gartner hype ciklusu će točno predvidjeti koliko će visoko cijena porasti za vrijeme ciklusa. Cijene često dosegnu razine koje bi se činile apsurdnima većini ulagača u raniji stadijima ciklusa. Kada ciklus završi, mediji tipično atribuiraju pad cijene nekoj od aktualnih drušvenih tema. Premda takva tema može biti okidač pada, ona nikad nije temeljni razlog zašto ciklus završava. Gartner hype ciklusi završavaju kada je količina dostupnih novih sudionika na tržištu iscrpljena.

Zanimljivo je da je i zlato nacrtalo klasičan graf Gartner hype ciklusa od kasnih 1970-ih do ranih 2000-ih. Moguće je spekulirati da je hype ciklus osnovna socijalna dinamika oko procesa monetizacije.

Gartner kohorte

Od početka trgovanja Bitcoina na mjenjačnicama 2010. godine, Bitcoin tržište je svjedočilo četirima velikim Gartner hype ciklusima. U retrospektivi, možemo vrlo precizno identificirati grupe cijena prethodnih hype ciklusa Bitcoin tržišta. Također, možemo kvalitativno odrediti kohorte ulagača koje su povezane sa svakom iteracijom prethodnih ciklusa.

0 USD –1 USD (2009. – 3. mjesec 2011.): Prvi hype ciklus u Bitcoin tržištu dominirali su kriptografi, računalni znanstvenici i cypherpunkovi koji su od početka bili spremni razumijeti važnost nevjerojatnog izuma Satoshija Nakamotoa, i koji su bili pioniri u potvrđivanju da Bitcoin protokol nema tehničkih mana.

1 USD - 30 USD (3. mjesec 2011. – 7. mjesec. 2011.): Drugi ciklus privukao je rane entuzijaste oko novih tehnologija kao i stabilan pritok ideološki motiviranih ulagača koji su bili oduševljeni idejom novca odvojenog od države. Libertarijanci poput Rogera Vera došli su u Bitcoin zbog aktivnog anti-institucionalnog stava, i mogućnosti koju je nova tehnologija obećavala. Wences Casares, briljantni i dobro povezani serijski poduzetnik, bio je također dio drugog Bitcoin hype ciklusa te je širio riječ o Bitcoinu među najprominentnijim tehnolozima i ulagačima u Silicijskoj Dolini.

250 USD – 1100 USD (4. mjesec 2013. – 12. mjesec 2013.): Treći hype ciklus doživio je ulazak ranih generalnih i institucionalnih ulagača koji su bili voljni uložiti trud i riskirati kroz užasno komplicirane kanale likvidnosti kako bi kupili bitcoine. Primaran izvor likvidnosti na tržištu za vrijeme ovog perioda bio je MtGox, mjenjačnica bazirana u Japanu, koju je vodio notorno nesposobni i beskrupulozni Mark Karpeles, koji je kasnije završio i u zatvoru zbog svoje uloge u kolapsu MtGoxa.

Valja primijetiti da je rast Bitcoinove cijene za vrijeme spomenuti hype ciklusa većinom povezano sa povećanjem likvidnosti i lakoćom sa kojom su ulagači mogli kupiti bitcoine. Za vrijeme prvog hype ciklusa, nisu postojale mjenjačnice; akvizicija bitcoina se odvijala primarno kroz rudarenje (mining) ili kroz izravnu razmjenu sa onima koju su već izrudarili bitcoine. Za vrijeme drugog hype ciklusa, pojavile su se rudimentarne mjenjačnice, no nabavljanje i osiguravanje bitcoina na ovim mjenjačnicama bilo je previše kompleksno za sve osim tehnološki najsposobnijih ulagača. Čak i za vrijeme trećeg hype ciklusa, ulagači koju su slali novac na MtGox kako bi kupili bitcoine su morali raditi kroz značajne prepreke. Banke nisu bile voljne imati posla sa mjenjačnicom, a oni posrednici koji su nudili usluge transfera bili su često nesposobni, kriminalni, ili oboje. Nadalje, mnogi koji su uspjeli poslati novac MtGoxu, u konačnici su morali prihvatiti gubitak svojih sredstava kada je mjenjačnica hakirana i kasnije zatvorena.

Tek nakon kolapsa MtGox mjenjačnice i dvogodišnje pauze u tržišnoj cijeni Bitcoina, razvili su se zreli i duboki izvori likvidnosti; primjeri poput reguliranih mjenjačnica kao što su GDAX i OTC brokeri kao Cumberland mining. Dok je četvrti hype ciklus započeo 2016. godine, bilo je relativno lako običnim ulagačima kupiti i osigurati bitcoine.

1100 USD – 19600 USD? (2014. –?):

U trenutku pisanja ovog teksta, tržište Bitcoina je prolazilo svoj četvrti veliki hype ciklus. Sudjelovanje u ovom hype ciklusu dominirala je ona skupina koju je Michael Casey opisao kao “rana većina” običnih i institucionalnih ulagača.

Kako su se izvori likvidnosti produbljivali i sazrijevali, veliki institucionalni ulagači sada imaju priliku sudjelovati kroz regulirana “futures” tržišta. Dostupnosti takvih tržišta stvara put ka kreaciji Bitcoin ETF-a (exchange traded fund) (fond na slobodnom tržištu), koji će onda pokrenuti “kasnu većinu” i “najsporije” u sljedećim hype ciklusima.

Premda je nemoguće predvidjeti točan efekt budućih hype ciklusa, razumno je očekivati da će najviša točka biti između 20.000 USD i 50.000 USD (2021. zenit je bio preko 69.000 USD). Znatno više od ovog raspona, i Bitcoin bi imao znatan postotak ukupne vijednosti zlata (zlato i Bitcoin bi imali jednaku tržišnu kapitalizaciju kada bi bitcoini vrijedili oko 380.000 USD u trenutku pisanja ovog teksta). Značajan postotak vrijednosti zlata dolazi od potražnje centralnih banaka, te je malo vjerojatno da će centralne banke ili suverene države sudjelovati u trenutnom hype ciklusu.

Ulazak suverenih država u Bitcoin

Bitcoinov zadnji Gartner hype ciklus će započeti kada ga suverene države počnu akumulirati kao dio svojih rezervi stranih valuta. Tržišna kapitalizacija Bitcoina je trenutno premala da bismo ga smatrali značajnim dodatkom rezervama većini zemalja. No, kako se interes u privatnom sektoru povećava i kapitalizacija Bitcoina se približi trilijunu dolara, postat će dovoljno likvidan za većinu država. Prva država koja službeno doda bitcoine u svoje rezerve će vjerojatno potaknuti stampedo ostalih da učine isto. Države koje su među prvima u usvajanju Bitcoina imat će najviše benefita u svojim knjigama ako Bitcoin u konačnici postane globalna valuta (global reserve currency). Nažalost, vjerojatno će države sa najjačom izvršnom vlasti - diktature poput Sjeverne Koreje - biti najbrže u akumulaciji bitcoina. Neodobravanje prema takvim državama i slaba izvršna tijela zapadnjačkih demokracija uzrokovat će sporost i kašnjenje u akumulaciji bitcoina za njihove vlastite rezerve.

Velika je ironija u tome što je SAD trenutno jedna od regulatorno najotvorenijih nacija prema Bitcoinu, dok su Kina i Rusija najzatvorenije. SAD riskira najviše, geopolitički, ako bi Bitcoin zamijenio dolar kao svjetska rezervna valuta. U 1960-ima, Charles de Gaulle je kritizirao “pretjeranu privilegiju” (“exorbitant privilege”) koju su SAD imale u međunarodnom monetarnom poretku, postavljenom kroz Bretton Woods dogovor 1944. godine. Ruska i kineska vlada još ne shvaćaju geo-strateške benefite Bitcoina kao rezervne valute, te se trenutno brinu o efektima koje bi mogao imati na njihova unutarnja tržišta. Kao de Gaulle u 1960-ima, koji je prijetio SAD-u povratkom na klasični standard zlata, Kinezi i Rusi će s vremenom uvidjeti korist u velikoj poziciji u Bitcoinu - spremištu vrijednosti bez pokrića ijedne vlade. Sa najvećom koncentracijom rudara Bitcoina u Kini (2017.), kineska vlada već ima znatnu potencijalnu prednost u stavljanju bitcoina u svoje rezerve.

SAD se ponosi svojim statusom nacije inovatora, sa Silicijskom dolinom kao krunom svoje ekonomije. Dosad, Silicijska dolina je dominirala konverzacijom usmjerenom prema regulaciji, i poziciji koju bi ona treba zauzeti prema Bitcoinu. No, bankovna industrija i federalna rezerva SAD-a (US Federal Reserve, Fed) napokon počinju uviđati egzistencijalnu prijetnju koju Bitcoin predstavlja za američku monetarnu politiku, postankom globalne rezervne valute. Wall Street Journal, jedan od medijskih glasova federalne reserve, izdao je komentar o Bitcoinu kao prijetnji monetarnoj politici SAD-a:

"Postoji još jedna opasnost, možda i ozbiljnija iz perspektive centralnih banaka i regulatora: bitcoin možda ne propadne. Ako je spekulativni žar u kriptovalutu samo prvi pokazatelj njezinog šireg korištenja kao alternative dolaru, Bitcoin će svakako ugroziti monopol centralnih banaka nad novcem."

U narednim godinama, možemo očekivati veliku borbu između poduzetnika i inovatora u Silicijskoj dolini, koji će pokušavati čuvati Bitcoin od državne kontrole s jedne strane, i bankovne industrije i centralnih banaka koje će učiniti sve što mogu da bi regulirale Bitcoin kako bi spriječile znatne promjene u svojoj industriji i moći izdavanja novca, s druge.

Prijelaz na medij razmjene

Monetarno dobro ne može postati opće prihvaćen medij razmjene (standardna ekonomska definicija za “novac”) prije nego je vrednovano od širokog spektra ljudi; jednostavno, dobro koje nije vrednovano neće biti prihvaćeno u razmjeni. Kroz proces generalnog rasta vrijednosti, i time postanka spremišta vrijednosti, monetarno dobro će brzo narasti u kupovnoj moći, i time stvoriti cijenu za korištenje u razmjeni. Samo kada ta cijena rizika mijenjanja spremišta vrijednosti padne dovoljno nisko, može dobro postati opće prihvaćen medij razmjene.

Preciznije, monetarno dobro će biti prikladno kao medij razmjene samo kada je suma cijene rizika i transakcijske cijene u razmjeni manja nego u trgovini bez tog dobra.

U društvu koje vrši robnu razmjenu, prijelaz spremišta vrijednosti u medij razmjene može se dogoditi čak i onda kada monetarno dobro raste u kupovnoj moći, zato što su transakcijski troškovi robne razmjene iznimno visoki. U razvijenoj ekonomiji, u kojoj su troškovi razmjene niski, moguće je za mladu i rapidno rastućnu tehnologiju spremišta vrijednosti, poput Bitcoina, da se koristi kao medij razmjene, doduše na ograničen način. Jedan primjer je ilegalno tržište droge, gdje su kupci voljni žrtvovati oportunu cijenu čuvanja bitcoina kako bi umanjili znatan rizik kupovine droge koristeći fiat novac.

Postoje međutim velike institucionalne barijere da novonastalo spremište vrijednosti postane sveopće prihvaćen medij razmjene u razvijenom društvu. Države koriste oporezivanje kao moćnu metodu zaštite svojeg suverenog novca protiv rivalskih monetarnih dobara. Ne samo da suvereni novac ima prednost konstantnog izvora potražnje, zato što je porez moguće platiti jedino u njemu, nego su i rivalska monetarna dobra oporezana pri svakoj razmjeni za vrijeme rastuće cijene. Ova metoda oporezivanja stvara znatan otpor korištenju spremišta vrijednosti kao medija razmjene.

Ovakvo sabotiranje tržišnih monetarnih dobara nije nepremostiva barijera za njihovo prihvaćanje kao općeg medija razmjene. Ako ljudi izgube vjeru u suvereni novac, njegova vrijednost može rapidno propasti kroz proces zvan hiperinflacija. Kada suvereni novac prolazi kroz hiperinflaciju, njegova vrijednost propadne prvo u usporedbi sa najlikvidnijim dobrima u društvu, kao što je zlato ili stabilna strana valuta (američki dolar npr.), ako su ona dostupna. Kada nema likvidnih dobara ili ih ima premalo, novac u hiperinflaciji kolabira u usporedbi sa stvarnim dobrima, kao što su nekretnine ili upotrebljiva roba. Arhetipska slika hiperinflacije je trgovina sa praznim policama - potrošači brzo bježe iz propadajuće vrijednosti novca svoje nacije.

Nakon dovoljno vremena, kada je vjera potpuno uništena za vrijeme hiperinflacije, suvereni novac više nitko ne prihvaća, te se društvo može vratiti na robnu razmjenu, ili će doživjeti potpunu zamjenu monetarne jedinice za sredstvo razmjene. Primjer ovog procesa bila je zamjena zimbabveanskog dolara za američki dolar. Takva promjena suverenog novca za stranu valutu je dodatno otežana relativnom oskudnošću strane valute i odsustvom stranih bankarskih institucija koje pružaju likvidnost tržištu.

Sposobnost lakog prenošenja bitcoina preko granica i odsustvo potrebe za bankarskim sustavom čine Bitcoin idealnim monetarnim dobrom za one ljude koji pate pod hiperinflacijom. U nadolazećim godinama, kako fiat valute nastave svoj povijesni trend ka bezvrijednosti, Bitcoin će postati sve popularniji izbor za ušteđevine ljudi diljem svijeta. Kada je novac nacije napušten i zamijenjen Bitcoinom, Bitcoin će napraviti tranziciju iz spremišta vrijednosti u tom društvu u opće prihvaćeno sredstvo razmjene. Daniel Krawicz stvorio je termin “hiperbitcoinizacija” da bi opisao ovaj proces.

Učestala pogrešna shvaćanja

Većina ovog članka usredotočila se na monetarnu prirodu Bitcoina. Sa tim temeljima možemo adresirati neke od najčešćih nerazumijevanja u Bitcoinu.

Bitcoin je balon (bubble)

Bitcoin, kao sva tržišna monetarna dobra, posjeduje monetarnu premiju. Ona često rezultira uobičajenom kritikom da je Bitcoin samo “balon.” No, sva monetarna dobra imaju monetarnu premiju. Naprotiv, ta monetarna premija (cijena viša od one koju diktira potražnja za dobrom kao korisnim) je upravo karakteristična za sve oblike novca. Drugim riječima, novac je uvijek i svuda balon. Paradoksalno, monetarno dobro je istovremeno balon i ispod vrijednosti ukoliko je u ranijim stadijima općeg prihvaćanja kao novac.

Bitcoin je previše volatilan

Volatilnost cijene Bitcoina je funkcija njegovog nedavnog nastanka. U prvih nekoliko godina svojeg postojanja, Bitcoin se ponašao kao mala dionica, i svaki veliki kupac - kao npr. braća Winklevoss - mogao je uzrokovati veliki skok u njegovoj cijeni. No, kako su se prihvaćenost i likvidnost povećavali kroz godine, volatilnost Bitcoina je srazmjerno smanjila. Kada Bitcoin postigne tržišnu kapitalizaciju (vrijednost) zlata, imat će sličnu volatilnost kao i zlato. Kako Bitcoin nastavi rasti, njegova volatilnost će se smanjiti do razine koja ga čini prikladnim za široko korištenje kao medij razmjene. Kao što je prethodno rečeno, monetizacija Bitcoina se odvija u seriji Gartner hype ciklusa. Volatilnost je najniža za vrijeme vrhunaca i dolina unutar ciklusa. Svaki hype ciklus ima nižu volatilnost od prethodnih, zato što je likvidnost tržišta veća.

Cijene transakcija su previsoke

Novija kritika Bitcoin mreže je ta da ju je povećanje cijena prijenosa bitcoina učinilo neprikladnom za sustav plaćanja. No, rast u cijenama transakcija je zdrav i očekivan. One su nužne za plaćanje bitcoin minera (rudara), koji osiguravaju mrežu validacijom transakcija. Rudare se plaća kroz cijene transakcija ili kroz blok-nagrade, koje su inflacijska subvencija od trane trenutnih vlasnika bitcoina.

S obzirom na Bitcoinovu fiksnu proizvodnju (monetarna politika koja ga čini idealnim za spremanje vrijednosti), blok-nagrade će s vremenom nestati i mrežu će se u konačnici morati osiguravati kroz cijene transakcija. Mreža sa “niskim” cijenama transakcija je mreža sa slabom sigurnosti i osjetljiva na vanjsku intervenciju i cenzuru. Oni koji hvale niske cijene Bitcoinovih alternative zapravo niti ne znajući opisuju slabosti tih takozvanih “alt-coina.”

Površan temelj kritika Bitcoinovih “visokih” cijena transakcija je uvjerenje da bi Bitcoin trebao biti prvo sustav plaćanja, i drugo spremište vrijednosti. Kao što smo vidjeli kroz povijest novca, ovo uvjerenje je naopako. Samo onda kada Bitcoin postane duboko ukorijenjeno spremište novca može biti prikladan kao sredstvo razmjene. Nadalje, kada oportunitetni trošak razmjene bitcoina dođe na razinu koja ga čini prikladnim sredstvom razmjene, većina trgovine neće se odvijati na samoj Bitcoin mreži, nego na mrežama “drugog sloja” (second layer) koje će imati niže cijene transakcija. Takve mreže, poput Lightning mreže, služe kao moderna verzija zadužnica koje su korištene za prijenos vlasničkih papira zlata u 19. stoljeću. Banke su koristile zadužnice zato što je prijenos samog metala bio daleko skuplji. Za razliku od takvih zadužnica, Lightning mreža će omogućavati nisku cijenu prijenosa bitcoina bez potrebe za povjerenjem prema trećoj strani, poput banaka. Razvoj Lightning mreže je tehnološka inovacija od izuzetne važnosti u povijesti Bitcoina, i njezina vrijednost će postati očita u narednim godinama, kako je sve više ljudi bude razvijalo i koristilo.

Konkurencija

Pošto je Bitcoin softverski protokol otvorenog tipa (open-source), oduvijek je bilo moguće kopirati softver i imitirati mrežu. Kroz godine nastajali su mnogi imitatori, od identičnih kopija, kao Litecoin, do kompleksnijih varijanti kao što je Ethereum, koje obećavaju arbitrarno kompleksne ugovorne mehanizme koristeći decentralizirani računalni sustav. Česta kritika Bitcoinu od strane ulagača je ta da on ne može zadržati svoju vrijednost kada je vrlo lako stvoriti konkurente koji mogu lako i brzo u sebi imati najnovije inovacije i softverske funkcionalnosti.

Greška u ovom argumentu leži u manju takozvanog “mrežnog efekta” (network effect), koji postoji u prvoj i dominantnoj tehnologiji u nekom području. Mrežni efekt - velika vrijednost korištenja Bitcoina samo zato što je već dominantan - je važno svojstvo samo po sebi. Za svaku tehnologiju koja posjeduje mrežni efekt, to je daleko najvažnije svojstvo koje može imati.

Za Bitcoin, mrežni efekt uključuje likvidnost njegovog tržišta, broj ljudi koji ga posjeduju, i zajednicu programera koji održavaju i unaprjeđuju njegov softver i svjesnost u javnosti. Veliki ulagači, uključujući države, će uvijek prvo tražiti najlikvidnije tržište, kako bi mogli ući i izaći iz tržišta brzo, i bez utjecanja na cijenu. Programeri će se pridružiti dominantnoj programerskoj zajednici sa najboljim talentom, i time pojačati samu zajednicu. Svjesnost o brendu sama sebe pojačava, pošto se nadobudni konkurenti Bitcoina uvijek spominju u kontekstu Bitcoina kao takvog.

Raskrižje na putu (fork)

Trend koji je postao popularan 2017. godine nije bio samo imitacija Bitcoinovog softvera, nego kopiranje potpune povijesti njegovih prošlih transakcija (cijeli blockchain). Kopiranjem Bitcoinovog blockchaina do određene točke/bloka i odvajanjem sljedećih blokova ka novoj mreži, u procesu znanom kao “forking” (odvajanje), Bitcoinovi konkurenti su uspjeli riješiti problem distribuiranja svojeg tokena velikom broju korisnika.

Najznačajniji takav fork dogodio se 1. 8. 2017. godine, kada je nova mreža nazvana Bitcoin Cash (Bcash) stvorena. Vlasnik N količine bitcoina prije 1.8.2017. bi onda posjedovao N bitcoina i N BCash tokena. Mala, ali vrlo glasna zajednica Bcash proponenata je neumorno pokušavala prisvojiti Bitcoinov brend i ime, imenujući svoju novu mrežu Bitcoin Cast i pokušavajući uvjeriti nove pridošlice u Bitcoin da je Bcash “pravi” Bitcoin. Ti pokušaji su većinom propali, i taj neuspjeh se vidi u tržišnim kapitalizacijama dviju mreža. No, za nove ulagače, i dalje postoji rizik da bi konkurent mogao kopirati Bitcoin i njegov blockchain i tako uspjeti u preuzimanju tržišne kapitalizacije, te postati de facto Bitcoin.

Moguće je uočiti važno pravilo gledajući velike forkove u prošlosti Bitcoin i Ethereum mreža. Većina tržišne kapitalizacije odvijat će se na mreži koja zadrži najviši stupanj talenta i aktivnosti u zajednici programera. Premda se na Bitcoin može gledati kao na nov i mlad novac, on je također računalna mreža koja počiva na softveru, kojeg se pak treba održavati i poboljšavati. Kupovina tokena na mreži koja ima malo neiskusnih programera bilo bi kao kupovati kopiju Microsoft Windowsa na kojoj rade lošiji programeri. Jasno je vidljivo iz povijesti forkova koji su se odvili 2017. godine da su najbolji računalni i kriptografski stručnjaci posvećeni razvoju originalnog Bitcoina, a ne nekoj od rastućeg broja imitacija koje su se izrodile iz njega.

Stvarni rizici

Premda su uobičajene kritike upućene Bitconu od strane medija i ekonomske profesije krive i bazirane na netočnom shvaćanju novca, postoje pravi i značajni rizici kod ulaganja u Bitcoin. Bilo bi mudro za novog Bitcoin ulagača da shvati ove rizike prije potencijalnog ulaganja.

Rizik protokola

Bitcoin protokol i kriptografski sastavni dijelovi na kojima je sagrađen potencijalno imaju dosad nepronađenu grešku u svom dizajnu, ili mogu postati nesigurni razvojem kvantnih računala. Ako se pronađe greška u protokolu, ili neka nova metoda računarstva učini mogućim probijanje kriptografskih temelja Bitcoina, vjera u Bitcoin biti će znatno narušena. Rizik protokola bio je najviši u ranim godinama razvoja Bitcoina, kada je još uvijek bilo nejasno, čak i iskusnim kriptografima, je li Satoshi Nakamoto zaista riješio problem bizantskih generala (Byzantine Generals’ Problem). Brige oko ozbiljnih grešaka u Bitcoin protokolu nestale su kroz godine, no uzevši u obzir njegovu tehnološku prirodu, rizik protokola će uvijek ostati u Bitcoinu, makar i kao izuzetak.

Propadanje mjenjačnica

Time što je decentraliziran, Bitcoin je pokazao značajnu otpornost, suočen sa brojnim pokušajima raznih vlada da ga reguliraju ili unište. No, mjenjačnice koje trguju bitcoinima za fiat valute su centralizirani entiteti i podložne regulacijama i zatvaranju. Bez mjenjačnica i volje bankara da s njima posluju, proces monetizacije Bitcoina bio bi ozbiljno usporen, ako ne i potpuno zaustavljen. Iako postoje alternativni izvori likvidnosti za Bitcoin, poput “over-the-counter” brokera i decentraliziranih tržišta za kupovinu i prodaju bitcoina, kritičan proces otkrivanja i definiranja cijene se odvija na najlikvidnijim mjenjačnicama, koje su sve centralizirane.

Jedan od načina za umanjivanje rizika gašenja mjenjačnica je geografska arbitraža. Binance, jedna od velikih mjenjačnica iz Kine, preselila se u Japan nakon što joj je kineska vlada zabranila operiranje u Kini. Vlade su također oprezne kako ne bi ugušile novu industriju koja je potencijalno značajna kao i internet, i time predale nevjerojatnu konkurentnu vrijednost drugim nacijama.

Samo kroz koordinirano globalno ukidanje Bitcoin mjenjačnica bi proces monetizacije mogao biti zaustavljen. Trenutno smo u utrci; Bitcoin raste i postaje sve rašireniji, i doći će do trenutka kada bi potpuno ukidanje mjenjačnica postalo politički neizvedivo - kao i gašenje interneta. Mogućnost takvog ukidanja je još uvijek realna, i valja je uzeti u obzir pri ulaganju u Bitcoin. Kao što je gore objašnjeno, suverene vlade se polako bude i uviđaju prijetnju koju predstavlja neovisna digitalna valuta otporna na cenzuru, za njihovu monetarnu politiku. Otvoreno je pitanje hoće li išta poduzeti da odgovore ovoj prijetnji prije nego Bitcoin postane toliko utvrđen i raširen da politička akcija postane nemoćna i ne-efektivna.

Zamjenjivost

Otvorena i transparentna priroda Bitcoin blockchaina omogućava državama da proglase specifične bitcoine “okaljanima” zbog njihovog korištenja u određenim aktivnostima. Premda Bitcoin, na protokolarnoj razini, ne diskriminira transakcije na ikoji način, “okaljani” bitcoini bi mogli postati bezvrijedni ako bi ih regulacije proglasile ilegalnima i neprihvatljivima za mjenjačnice ili trgovce. Bitcoin bi tada izgubio jedno od kritičnih svojstava monetarnog dobra: zamjenjivost.

Da bi se ovaj problem riješio i umanjio, biti će potrebna poboljšanja na razini protokola kako bi se poboljšala privatnost transakcija. Premda postoji napredak u ovom smjeru, prvi put primjenjen u digitalnim valutama kao što su Monero i Zcash, potrebno je napraviti značajne tehnološke kompromise između efikasnosti i kompleksnosti Bitcoina i njegove privatnosti. Pitanje ostaje otvoreno je li moguće dodati nova svojstva privatnosti na Bitcoin, na način koji neće kompromitirati njegovu korisnost kao novca.

Zaključak

Bitcoin je novonastali novac koji je u procesu transformacije iz sakupljačkog dobra u spremište vrijednosti. Kao neovisno monetarno dobro, moguće je da će u budućnosti postati globalan novac, slično kao zlato za vrijeme 19. stoljeća. Prihvaćanje Bitcoina kao globalnog novca je upravo taj optimističan scenarij za Bitcoin, kojeg je artikulirao Satoshi Nakamoto još 2010. godine u email razmjeni sa Mikeom Hearnom:

"Ako zamisliš da se koristi u nekom dijelu svjetske trgovine, i da će postojati samo 21 milijun bitcoina za cijeli svijet, vrijednost po jedinici će biti znatno veća".

Ovaj scenarij je još snažnije definirao briljantni kriptograf Hal Finney, koji je ujedno primio i prve bitcoine od Nakamotoa, ubrzo nakon najave prvog funkcionalnog Bitcoin softvera:

"Zamislimo da Bitcoin bude uspješan i postane dominantan sustav plaćanja diljem svijeta. U tom slučaju će ukupna vrijednost valute biti jednaka ukupnoj vrijednosti svog bogatstva svijeta. Današnje procjene ukupnog svjetskog bogatska kućanstava koje sam pronašao borave negdje između 100 i 300 trilijuna dolara. Sa 20 milijuna bitcoina, svaki bi onda vrijedio oko 10 milijuna dolara."

Čak i da Bitcoin ne postane u cijelost globalan novac, nego da se samo natječe sa zlatom kao neovisno spremište vrijednosti, i dalje je masivno podcijenjen. Mapiranje tržišne kapitalizacije postojeće količine izrudarenog zlata (oko 8 trilijuna dolara) na maksimalnu dostupnost Bitcoina od 21 milijun, daje vrijednost od otprilike 380,000 dolara po bitcoinu. Kao što smo vidjeli u prethodnom tekstu, svojstva koja omogućavaju monetarnom dobru da bude prikladno spremište vrijednosti, čine Bitcoin superiornijim zlatu u svakom pogledu osim trajanja povijesti. No, kako vrijeme prolazi i Lindy efekt postane jači, dosadašnja povijest će prestati biti prednost zlata. Samim time, nije nerazumno očekivati da će Bitcoin narasti do, a možda i preko, ukupne cijene zlata na tržištvu do 2030. Opaska ovoj tezi je činjenica da veliki postotak vrijednosti zlata dolazi od toga što ga centralne banke čuvaju kao spremište vrijednosti. Da bi Bitcoin došao do te razine, određena količina suverenih država će trebati sudjelovati. Hoće li zapadnjačke demokracije sudjelovati u vlasništvu Bitcoina je nepoznato. Vjerojatnije je, nažalost, da će prve nacije u Bitcoin tržištu biti sitne diktature i kleptokracije.

Ako niti jedna država ne bude sudjelovala u Bitcoin tržištu, optimistična teza i dalje postoji. Kao nevisno spremište vrijednosti u rukama individualnih i institucionalnih ulagača, Bitcoin je i dalje vrlo rano u svojoj “krivulji prihvaćenosti” (adoption curve); tzv. “rana većina” ulaze na tržište sada, dok će ostali ući tek nekoliko godina kasnije. Sa širim sudjelovanjem individualnih i institucionalnih ulagača, cijena po bitcoinu između 100,000 i 200,000 dolara je sasvim moguća.

Posjedovanje bitcoina je jedna od malobrojnih asimetričnih novčanih strategija dostupnih svakome na svijetu. Poput “call” opcija, negativan rizik ulagača je ograničen na 1x, dok potencijalna dobit i dalje iznosi 100x ili više. Bitcoin je prvi istinski globalan balon čija je veličina ograničena samo potražnjom i željom građana svijeta da zaštite svoju ušteđevinu od raznovrsnih ekonomskih malverzacija vlade. Bitcoin je ustao kao feniks iz pepela globalne financijske krize 2008. godine - katastrofe kojoj su prethodile odluke centralnih banaka poput američke Federalne rezerve (Federal Reserve).

Onkraj samo financijske teze za Bitcoin, njegov rast i uspjeh kao neovisno spremište vrijednosti imat će duboke geopolitičke posljedice. Globalna, ne-inflacijska valuta će prisiliti suverene države da promjene svoje primarne mehanizme financiranja od inflacije u izravno oporezivanje; koje je daleko manje politički popularno. Države će se smanjivati proporcionalno političkoj boli koju im nanese oporezivanje kao jedini način financiranja. Nadalje, globalna trgovina vršiti će se na način koji zadovoljava aspiraciju Charlesa de Gaullea, da nijedna nacija ne bi smjela imati privilegiju nad ikojom drugom:

"Smatramo da je potrebno da se uspostavi međunarodna trgovina, kao što je bio slučaj prije velikih nesreća koje su zadesile svijet, na neosporivoj monetarnoj bazi, koja ne nosi na sebi oznaku ijedne države."

Za 50 godina, ta monetarna baza biti će Bitcoin.

@ 26769dac:498e333b

I am here too\ In the same space like you

In the same situation I'm in\ It's a matter of positioning

I cannot leave this place I'm in\ It was brought about\ By what's been happening

So please don't look at me\ For what I can or cannot do for you\ But look at what is happening for me\ And what is happening for you

Let's communicate\ Not orchestrate

Because there's something I wish to do\ And there's a place I wish to go to

And I'm sure that there is too\ In your heart a fire\ Known by only you

So let us listen, look and see\ For what's true for you\ And what's true for me

That we may act upon what's here\ In order for us both to take a step\ In the direction we wish to steer

@ c1e6505c:02b3157e

I recently acquired a new lens:

1959 Leica Summaron F2.8 35mm LTM.

1959 Leica Summaron 35mm f2.8 LTM mounted on my Fujifilm Xpro2 with LTM adapter made by Urth.

Technically, it was a trade. I helped a fellow Bitcoiner set up their Sparrow Wallet, Nostr stuff, and troubleshoot a few wallet issues, and in return, they gave me the lens.

It all started at a local Bitcoin meetup I went to about a week ago - my second time attending. I recognized a few faces from last time, but also saw some new ones. These meetups are refreshing - it’s rare to speak a common language about something like Bitcoin or Nostr. Most people still don’t get it. But they will.

Technology moves forward. Networks grow. Old cells die off.

During the meetup, someone noticed I had my Leica M262 with me and struck up a conversation. Said they had some old Leica lenses and gear at home, and wanted to show me.

Bitcoin and photography in one conversation? I’m down.

A day or so later, they sent me a photo of one of the lenses: a vintage Summaron LTM 35mm f/2.8 from 1959. I’d never seen or heard of one before. They asked if I could help them set up Sparrow and a Bitcoin node. In exchange, they’d give me the lens. Sounded like a good deal to me. Helping plebs with their setups feels like a duty anyway. I said, of course.

They invited me over - a pretty trusting move, which I appreciated. They had some great Bitcoin memorabilia: Fred Krueger’s The Big Bitcoin Book (even if the guy’s turned full shitcoiner), and some FTX sunglasses from Bitcoin 2022. Probably future collector’s items, lol.

We headed upstairs to work on setting up Sparrow Wallet on their Windows machine. I verified the software download first (which you should always do), then helped them create a new wallet using their Ledger Flex. They also had an older Ledger Nano X. The Flex setup was easy, but the Nano X gave us trouble. It turns out Ledger allows multiple wallets for the same asset, which can show up differently depending on how they’re configured. In Sparrow, only one wallet showed—none of the others.

I believe it had to do with the derivation path from the Ledger. If anyone knows a fix, let me know.

After a few hours of troubleshooting, I told them I couldn’t really recommend Ledger. The UX is a mess. They’d already heard similar things from other plebs too.

I suggested switching to the Blockstream Jade. It’s a solid Bitcoin-only device from a trustworthy team. That’s what you want in a hardware wallet.

But back to the lens…

Since it’s an LTM (Leica Thread Mount), I couldn’t mount it directly on my M262. Luckily, I remembered I had an Urth adapter that fits my Fujifilm X-Pro2. I don’t use the X-Pro2 much these days—it’s mostly been sidelined by the M262 - but this was the perfect excuse to bring it out again.

To test the lens, I shot everything wide open at f/2.8. Nothing crazy fast, but it’s the best way to see a lens’s character. And this one definitely has character. There’s a subtle softness and a kind of motion blur effect around the edges when wide open. At first, I wasn’t sure how I felt about it, but the more I shot, the more I liked it. It reminds me of Winogrand’s work in Winogrand Color - those messy, shifting edges that make the frame feel alive. It also helps soften the digital-ness of the camera sensor.

The focus throw is short and snappy - much tighter than my Summicron V3 35mm f/2. I really like how fast it is to use. The closest focusing distance is about 3.5 feet, so it’s not ideal for close-ups. And with the Urth adapter on the X-Pro2, the focal length ends up closer to 40mm.

The only thing that threw me off was the infinity lock. When the focus hits infinity, it physically locks - you have to press a small tab to unlock it. I’ve seen others complain about it, so I guess it’s just one of those old lens quirks. I’m getting used to it.

All the photos here were taken around where I live in South Carolina. Some during bike rides to the river for a swim, others while walking through the marshlands.

I try to make work wherever I am. You should be able to.

It’s about the light, the rhythm, the play - and having the motivation to actually go out and shoot.

Lens rating: 7.9/10

---

I mainly shoot with a Leica M262, and edit in Lightroom + Dehancer

Use “PictureRoom” for 10% off Dehancer Film

If you’ve made it this far, thank you for taking the time to view my work - consider becoming a paid subscriber.

Also, please contact me if you would like to purchase any of my prints.

Follow me on Nostr:

npub1c8n9qhqzm2x3kzjm84kmdcvm96ezmn257r5xxphv3gsnjq4nz4lqelne96

@ 005bc4de:ef11e1a2

Two days ago I put this out: https://peakd.com/hive-124838/@crrdlx/hostr-snaps-9i13ooa7ufp

Post: https://peakd.com/hive-124838/@crrdlx/hostr-snaps-9i13ooa7ufp

One of the comments said it "...looks like some sort of game as well." That was enough to tickle my curiosity and get me thinking. The round tomatoes and how they nestled into the grooves of the tiles reminded me of Chinese checkers. The grid brought Hex to mind (the game John Nash played) and I wondered if a square-grid version might be viable. A little searching revealed Hex is a "Connection game" and there are several. The one called Tak seemed really interesting and simple. I like interesting and I really like simple.

So, a square grid connection game wouldn't be new, however, you can't play Tak with tomatoes. Tak requires stacking "stones" or standing them on edge, that would be very, very tricky with tomatoes.

I looked around and happened to have some dried corn kernels and dry beans. I drew out a 5 x 5 grid of dots, lined up five corn kernels on one side in a "home row" and 5 beans on the other. We used to play a game where two sides of Army men met after a series of moves. In that game, we rolled dice to have a "combat" and see who would win the little battle. I wanted something like that in my game, some type of combat or conquest, somehow. So, I started messing around, moving kernels and beans, and totally just set out to make this game up on the fly. This is what I got...

Rules

The objective, like Hex or Tak, is to connect one side (your home row) to your opponent's side. The connection to the other side can be a straight line, or it CAN include a diagonal road. Any of the roads below would be a win for team bean (B).

• One side makes a move by sliding one corn/bean one spot forward.
• Then, take turns making moves.
• Movement can only be one spot forward/back or sideways (NSEW). You cannot move diagonally.
• Opponents CAN occupy, or "squat", on the same spot at once. If so, the spot is being "co-squatted" (they're like two people standing in the same sidewalk tile at the same time).
• However, while opponents occupy the same spot, a "combat" might ensue. A corn/bean can "attack" by moving yet another adjoining corn or bean onto the co-squatted spot. A conquest is made by outnumbering a spot 2-to-1. For instance, if a spot is being occupied by both a bean and corn, and then a second corn moves in, the two corns conquer the one bean. The bean is immediately removed. The bean player then places that conquered bean into any empty spot on his or her home row. That placement constitutes the bean player's turn. So, after the bean is placed on the home row, the corn player makes the next move.
• Play continues until someone completes a road from their home row across to their opponent's home row. (Again, a diagonal road is okay for the win.)
• The losing player got Succotashed.

Game name

As to the name, initially I wanted a tomato-ish name. But, I was using corn and beans. So, I'm naming this game "Succotash" after the corn, bean, and vegetable recipe. I considered calling it the "Texas Caviar Game" because it has tomatoes in it, but playing Succotash just sounds better. Plus, putting tomatoes in succotash sounds yummy.

Simple

A big goal here was to keep it simple. To that end, all that's needed is (a) a paper with a 5 x 5 grid drawn on it, and, (b) 5 pieces of something and 5 pieces of something else. Obviously I used corn kernels and beans, but it could easily be shells/legos, pennies/paperclips, nuts/stones, or whatever.

Initially, I had a "storehouse" of extra corn kernels and storehouse of extra beans (seen in the images). My thinking was that they would replace the corn or beans that get conquered by opponents. Upon playing the game, it was apparent that a storehouse is totally unnecessary. Once captured, the same corn/bean can just be the one that's placed back onto the home row. Five of each is fine.

Also, I'm sure the grid could easily be expanded to whatever size you wish. I played an opponent with the 5 x 5 grid, and that seemed a good size for a five minute or so game.

Why not sit down face-to-face with someone for a minute and give Succotash a try? If you do, I'd love to hear how it went.

@ 99e7936f:d5d2197c

“Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben.”

Wo bleibt die Rettung?

Wenn man bei einem Notfall auf den Rettungswagen wartet, dann fühlen sich Minuten wie Stunden an. Die Nerven sind bis zum Anschlag gespannt, alle Sinne sind geschärft.

Die Natur hat das so eingerichtet, damit man aufmerksam und  gut geschützt ist vor weiteren Verletzungen.

Bei Trauma ist das auch so, nur dass dieser Zustand gefühlt ein halbes Leben andauert. Das klingt brutal, ist aber in etwa so. Da ein menschlicher Körper das nicht gut aushalten kann, sendet er dem Gehirn die Information: “ Bitte mach etwas zur Entlastung, ich kann mit dem Dauerstress nicht gut umgehen. Ich habe ständig das Gefühl, dass etwas Schlimmes passiert und ich mich verteidigen muss.“ Das Gehirn überlegt sich dann eine Lösung, um auch selber endlich wieder Ruhe zu haben. In der Regel wird der traumatische Inhalt verdrängt, vergessen, abgewandelt, abgeschwächt oder als Schwarz-Weiß-Film wieder gegeben, also ohne Gefühl (re)präsentiert. Man kann dann von den traumatischen Erlebnissen erzählen, ohne ein einziges Gefühl zu haben. Das wirkt souverän, als habe man das Trauma verarbeitet, das Gegenteil ist der Fall. Manche Menschen reden sogar über Gefühle, empfinden diese aber nicht. Gefühle werden imitiert oder inszeniert. Wenn man selber fühlen kann, spürt man diesen feinen Unterschied als Zuhörer sofort. Jedenfalls ist alles das Traumafolge bzw. die Lösung, die uns das Gehirn nach Trauma anbietet. Entweder ist der ganze Inhalt samt Emotion weg, oder der Inhalt ist noch da, aber die Emotion dazu fehlt. Es gibt Menschen, die so tief traumatisiert sind, dass sie eine ganz andere Geschichte von sich selbst erzählen, als die, die eigentlich stattgefunden hat. Ich weiß, dass das gruselig klingt. Aber das ist eine Realität. Und es ist vermutlich gut so. Die Natur macht alles, um ein Menschenleben zu retten, und wenn es um den Preis des psychologischen Vergessens ist. Manche Erinnerungen sind offensichtlich nicht mit dem Leben vereinbar, deswegen werden sie für immer abgespalten. Mittlerweile habe ich persönlich viel Respekt vor Menschen, die sich an nichts mehr „erinnern“ können, da ich gelernt habe, dass sie am schlimmsten traumatisiert sind. Diese Einstellung hatte ich nicht immer.

Jedenfalls verhält es sich nach meiner Beobachtung und auch nach meinen eigenen Erfahrungen so, dass man sich ganz oft erst dann vollständig UND in Farbe an traumatische Erlebnisse erinnert, wenn die Zeit dafür reif ist. Man könnte auch sagen, wenn die Seele bereit ist, die verlorenen Seelenanteile wieder zuzulassen. Sie sind nie weg, denn eine unsichtbare Schnur verbindet uns immer mit dem, was passiert ist. Also, wenn dieser Moment, in dem Du Deine Seelenanteile wieder begrüßen darfst, kommt, dann ist das wie ein riesiges Geschenk, auch wenn sich das zu Beginn nicht so anfühlt. Es fühlt sich dann eher so an, wie wenn man auf den Rettungswagen wartet, aber es ist definitiv ein Geschenk, genau wie eine Geburt ein Geschenk ist. Und eine Geburt ist ja auch nicht immer leicht.

Also, je mehr Gefühl beim Erinnern von traumatischen Inhalten spürbar ist, desto besser kann  Traumabearbeitung gelingen. (Heiße den Schmerz willkommen, wenn er in Dein Leben kommt.) Ich persönlich hatte lange Wehen, bevor mein Trauma dann schlagartig aktiviert wurde. Das war, bildlich gesprochen, eine Hausgeburt, die ich allein vollbracht habe, weil der Rettungswagen dermaßen Verspätung hatte. Aber das Kind hat sich dennoch gut entwickelt. Ich habe zuvor lange von meinem Trauma „nur“ geredet. Ich habe rationalisiert, wie man in der Fachsprache sagt. Mir war meine frühe Verletzung bewusst, aber ich hatte kein Gefühl zu dem, was ich erlebt hatte. Als das Gefühl da war, verstand ich, dass es sinnvoll war, es solange nicht gefühlt haben zu können, denn es war ein überwältigender Schmerz. Die Natur macht instinktiv ein gutes Timing für die Wiederkehr des Gefühls. Sie sucht sich eine Zeit im Leben aus, wo man einen guten Stand hat, stabil ist, eine Umgebung hat, die einen zumindest für eine Weile halten und auffangen kann. Denn die Natur möchte schließlich, dass man auch die Wiederkehr des Gefühls überlebt.

Genauso schmerzhaft wie der Verlust des Gefühls war, genauso schmerzhaft ist seine Wiederkehr.

Der Schmerz ist quasi der Erste und der Letzte. Er macht das Licht aus, und später macht er das Licht oder den Farbfilm wieder an. Der Schmerz ist viel besser als sein Ruf.

Ich erzähle hier lediglich meine Erfahrungen und Beobachtungen, auch wenn ich allgemein formuliere. Das kann sich bei anderen Menschen auch anders verhalten. Aber ich finde den Erfahrungsaustausch über dieses Thema wichtig, WEIL es unterschiedlich sein kann und jeder auf einem anderen Level von Traumabearbeitung steht. Ein Problem bei Traumabearbeitung ist, dass jeder ein anderes Trauma erlebt hat, dass jeder einen anderen Nährboden hatte, auf den das Trauma fiel, und dass es verschiedene Stadien gibt, bis es dann endlich und hoffentlich soweit ist, dass das Trauma wieder vollständig in die eigene Psyche integriert werden kann und man wieder „ganz“ bzw. „neu und etwas anders“ ist. Und meine Erfahrung ist, dass man auf das Tempo dieses Prozesses leider keinen Einfluss hat, auch wenn es hierzu, wie ich finde, viele falsche Verkehrsdurchsagen gibt. Die Natur ist da verschlossen wie eine Auster, sie lässt sich nicht ins Handwerk pfuschen. Als ich das verstand, hat sich mein Wunsch, Menschen zu helfen, schlagartig verändert. Ich verstand, dass ICH das nicht machen kann, dass die Natur das selber macht. Und das ist eine gute Nachricht, denn die Natur kann das am besten und ist ein super zuverlässiger Partner.

Wir brauchen keinen Rettungswagen. Der Schmerz ist die Rettung.

Das Thema „Trauma“ birgt so viel positiven Erkenntnisgewinn über das Wunder des Lebens.

Aber zurück zum Thema. Wenn man, so wie ich, ein halbes Leben in einem Schwarz-Weiß-Film verbracht hat, dann die Hausgeburt ohne Rettungswagen durchgestanden hat und das Kind irgendwann anfängt, neugierige Fragen zu stellen, dann ist man im Zugzwang. In dieser Situation bin ich heute. Deswegen schreibe ich. Mein neues ICH fragt mich immer öfter, warum ich so viele Dinge tue, die ich eigentlich gar nicht mehr tun will. Kinder fragen einen auch manchmal ganz unverblümt, ob man den Hansi denn lieb hat oder ob man gerne im Büro arbeitet. Wenn man den Hansi nicht lieb hat und nicht gerne im Büro arbeitet, dann muss man schlucken und eine kindgerechte Antwort formulieren. Genauso wenig wie Kinder als kompetenter 20-jähriger auf die Welt kommen, genau so wenig ist man nach geglückter Traumabearbeitung „geheilt“. Es wird nichts schlagartig besser. Das ist auch so eine falsche Verkehrsdurchsage. Man lebt ja noch im alten Leben, was nun Schritt für Schritt verändert werden darf. ABER man ist glückliche Mutter. Mutter sein, ist nicht immer leicht, habe ich mir sagen lassen. Mütter lieben ihre Kinder. Im Idealfall machen sie sich keine Gedanken darüber, was aus ihrem Kind mal werden soll. Sie vertrauen einfach darauf, DASS aus ihrem Kind ein glücklicher Mensch wird und buttern deshalb so viel Liebe in das Kind hinein, wie in den wenigen Jahren, die das Kind ein Kind ist, möglich ist. So ähnlich geht es mir heute auch. Ich bin stolz auf mein neues ICH und lobe es, so oft ich kann. Jede Mutter lobt ihre Butter. Das ist wichtig, denn das Leben bietet ständig Herausforderungen, an denen man bekanntlich wachsen darf. Ich gehe jeden Tag mit meinem „Kind“ spazieren, und wir sehen viel. Wir sehen andere Menschen mit Trauma, wir hören zu, welches Trauma der andere erlebt hat und auf welchem Level er ist. Wir hören das Gefühl heraus, welches mitschwingt. Wir sehen Menschen in ihrem Schwarz-Weiß-Film. Und wir sehen Menschen, die scheinbar mit jeder Situation souverän umgehen können. Am meisten interessieren „uns“ zur Zeit solche Menschen, die ehrlich zugeben, dass sie Wehen haben, dass der Schmerz sich in immer kürzeren Abständen meldet. (Die verlorenen Seelenanteile ziehen an der unsichtbaren Schnur.) Mit diesen Leuten kann ich im Moment am besten. Das hört sich komisch an. Aber ich will damit zum Ausdruck bringen, dass ich mit diesen Menschen mittlerweile am meisten resoniere. Sie sprechen meine Sprache. Sie empfinden Gefühle, und sprechen über diese. Das ist für mich die schönste Sprache.

Wer in diesen Tagen wahrhaftig Schmerz empfindet, und nicht nur als Lippenbekenntnis, sondern echten üblen Schmerz über die enttäuschte Liebe oder über die Verhältnisse in dieser Welt, der ist mir sympathisch, der ist mir nah. Denn ich weiß, dass so ein fühlender Mensch auch bald eine Niederkunft erleben wird, die ihn verändert, die ihn anders auf diese Welt schauen lässt.

Der Schmerz bringt uns die Verwandlung. Der Schmerz bringt die verlorenen Seelenanteile zurück. Der Schmerz ist der Hüter des Lebens. Der Schmerz bringt Dir Deine volle Sensibilität für andere Menschen zurück. Alles, was Du bei Dir nicht fühlen kannst, kannst Du bei anderen nicht fühlen. Der Schmerz beendet das. Er macht das Licht an und gibt dem Film wieder Farbe.

Heiße den Schmerz willkommen, wenn er in Dein Leben kommt. Tu das, nicht etwa weil Du gern leidest, nein tu das, weil Du Dich liebst, weil Du bewusst darauf achten möchtest, was Dir wirklich gut tut und Freude macht. Ein Mensch oder ein Job, der Dir Schmerz bereitet, den gilt es loszulassen. Und wenn Du Schmerz im Gesicht Deines Gegenübers siehst, dann frage Dich ehrlich, was Dein Anteil daran ist, dass der andere leidet. Wir sind nicht für jedes Leid auf dieser Welt verantwortlich, das möchte ich hier auch betonen. Und die Schuld-Nummer zieht bei mir schon lange nicht mehr. Aber ich nehme immer besser wahr, wenn mein eigenes  Verhalten nicht angemessen, nicht authentisch ist, von überholten Glaubensmustern geprägt ist. Ich kann das erkennen und korrigieren. Ich kann das heute selber erkennen, weil der Schmerz mich das gelehrt hat, mich geöffnet hat. Der Schmerz lehrt uns ganz viel. Der Schmerz ist der Hüter des Lebens. Er trifft einen hart, macht aber weich.

Heiße den Schmerz willkommen, denn er ist die Rettung.   

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@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

These days it can feel like the whole world is out of control. Government officials lie and break the law. People are selfish, act emotionally rather than logically, and push ideologies that are illogical and contrary to reality. Society is divided into groups and people are judged, not for their own character, but based on which group they are placed into. There are wars and rumors of wars. There are worries of pandemics and economic disasters. Depression, psychosis, and despair is rampant even among the youngest among us.

Hope For Believers

As much as things seem to be out of control, they are not out of God’s control. This is what the Bible predicted. No matter how bad things get in the world, those who have put their faith in Jesus, do not need to feel despair.

Why are you in despair, O my soul?\ And why have you become disturbed within me?\ Hope in God, for I shall again praise Him\ For the help of His presence.\ O my God, my soul is in despair within me;\ Therefore I remember You from the land of the Jordan\ And the peaks of Hermon, from Mount Mizar. (Psalm 42:5-6)

When we start to feel despair overcoming us, we need to remember what God has done and what He has promised. We need to praise God for what He has done, what He has promised, and what He will bring to completion. Things may be hard now, but God is still in control, and we know how the story will end. God triumphs. Good is rewarded. Evil is destroyed. We can stand on the foundation of hope because we know the ending. Even though things may be out of our personal control, they are always under God’s control.

The more fiercely the storm rages, the more we need to rest in Jesus and the more we need to put our hope in Him.

O love the Lord, all you His godly ones!\ The Lord preserves the faithful\ And fully recompenses the proud doer.\ **Be strong and let your heart take courage,\ All you who hope in the Lord. (Psalm 31:23-24) {emphasis mine}

We can take courage because God always acts for our long term good. Every hardship we experience here on earth will be recognized as a blessing that grew our faith and prepared us for heaven and God’s presence in eternity.

For I know the plans that I have for you,’ declares the Lord, ‘plans for welfare and not for calamity to give you a future and a hope. (Jeremiah 29:11)

Even the worst things that happen to us, due to the sins of others, have a good purpose in our lives. God is working good through us. Our hope isn’t an empty hope. It isn’t a “I really hope this happens.” It is a “I can hope in the guaranteed promises of God.”

For we do not want you to be unaware, brethren, of our affliction which came to us in Asia, that we were burdened excessively, beyond our strength, so that we despaired even of life; indeed, we had the sentence of death within ourselves so that we would not trust in ourselves, but in God who raises the dead; who delivered us from so great a peril of death, and will deliver us, He on whom we have set our hope. And He will yet deliver us, (2 Corinthians 1:8-10) {emphasis mine}

We may experience situations so bad that they seem hopeless, but with God, nothing is hopeless. The God who raises the dead can raise us out of any situation. The God who spoke the universe into existence can deliver us by a word.

The God of the Bible knows all and loves us completely. He looks at our situation through the lens of eternity. What seems best in the moment is not necessarily what is best for our eternity. Many times He delivers us through hardship rather than out of it. We just need to trust Him and put our hope in Him because He is good.

In the same way God, desiring even more to show to the heirs of the promise the unchangeableness of His purpose, interposed with an oath, so that by two unchangeable things in which it is impossible for God to lie, we who have taken refuge would have strong encouragement to take hold of the hope set before us. This hope we have as an anchor of the soul, a hope both sure and steadfast and one which enters within the veil, where Jesus has entered as a forerunner for us, having become a high priest forever according to the order of Melchizedek. (Hebrews 6:17-20) {emphasis mine}

Read that statement again. “This hope we have as an anchor of the soul, a hope both sure and steadfast.” Are you trusting Jesus as the “anchor of your soul?” Is your hope just a wish or is it a “sure and steadfast” hope based on the promises of God that you know will 100% come true?

And not only this, but we also exult in our tribulations, knowing that tribulation brings about perseverance; and perseverance, proven character; and proven character, hope; and hope does not disappoint, because the love of God has been poured out within our hearts through the Holy Spirit who was given to us. (Romans 5:3-5)

Isn’t it ironic that we need hope to persevere through tribulations, but that persevering through tribulation gives us character and hope? Our faith, trust, and hope grow through hardship. When things are easy, we almost always fall back on trusting in our own power rather than relying on God’s power. If we have put our faith in Jesus, there is no situation in which we should lose hope.

Now may the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in believing, so that you will abound in hope by the power of the Holy Spirit. (Romans 15:13)

Is your joy and peace based on your circumstances or have you learned to have hope in God so you can experience joy and peace even in the trials?

Many people equate joy and happiness, but I think there is a key distinction. Happiness is a pleasant feeling that comes from pleasant circumstances. Joy is a similar feeling to happiness, but it comes from knowing God and His love. It is not tied to circumstances. When we have truly put our hope in God we can still have joy in and despite the most horrific circumstances.

Blessed be the God and Father of our Lord Jesus Christ, who according to His great mercy has caused us to be born again to a living hope through the resurrection of Jesus Christ from the dead, to obtain an inheritance which is imperishable and undefiled and will not fade away, reserved in heaven for you, (1 Peter 1:3-4) {emphasis mine}

Just as Jesus told the Samaritan woman at the well that He provides living water that wells up inside, so that she need never thirst, in the same way believers have a living hope that wells up in times of need. Our hope is in the Creator of the universe and Savior of the world. No problem is too big for Him. No situation is a surprise to Him. No enemy is too powerful for Him. All of our problems are already solved. We just haven’t necessarily seen the solution yet.

My soul, wait in silence for God only,\ For my hope is from Him.\ He only is my rock and my salvation,\ My stronghold; I shall not be shaken.\ On God my salvation and my glory rest;\ The rock of my strength, my refuge is in God. (Psalm 62:5-7)

Despair For Unbelievers

Although believers never have reason to despair, the same is not true for those who have rejected the Savior, Jesus Christ. In these perilous times, they have a real reason for dread and despair.

Moreover, the Lord will scatter you among all peoples, from one end of the earth to the other end of the earth; and there you shall serve other gods, wood and stone, which you or your fathers have not known. Among those nations you shall find no rest, and there will be no resting place for the sole of your foot; but there the Lord will give you a trembling heart, failing of eyes, and despair of soul. So your life shall hang in doubt before you; and you will be in dread night and day, and shall have no assurance of your life. (Deuteronomy 64-66)

Those who reject the atoning sacrifice of Jesus do not get His protection. They do not get His help. They cannot rest in hope in Him.

Of course, the good news is that they can chose to turn their hearts to Him, confess their sins, and trust in Him up until their moment of death. Sadly many will continue to put off faith until it is too late. Many will choose evil over good and license over submission until God gives them over to their lusts.

And just as they did not see fit to acknowledge God any longer, God gave them over to a depraved mind, to do those things which are not proper, being filled with all unrighteousness, wickedness, greed, evil; full of envy, murder, strife, deceit, malice; they are gossips, slanderers, haters of God, insolent, arrogant, boastful, inventors of evil, disobedient to parents, without understanding, untrustworthy, unloving, unmerciful; and although they know the ordinance of God, that those who practice such things are worthy of death, they not only do the same, but also give hearty approval to those who practice them. (Romans 1:28-32)

If any of you have not yet put your trust in Jesus as Savior and Lord, do not wait. Turn away from evil. Submit to the will of Jesus. Trust Him to take away your sins and cover you with His righteousness.

If any of you know people who are in despair, share the gospel with them. Tell them about the greatness of God. Show them the hope that is within you.

Can Believers Despair?

Are there believers who despair? Yes. Should believers ever despair? Definitely not!

But we have this treasure in earthen vessels, so that the surpassing greatness of the power will be of God and not from ourselves; we are afflicted in every way, but not crushed; perplexed, but not despairing; persecuted, but not forsaken; struck down, but not destroyed; always carrying about in the body the dying of Jesus, so that the life of Jesus also may be manifested in our body. (2 Corinthians 4:7-10)

Jesus is always with believers in all situations guiding and protecting us. Those difficult situations that happen are for our good, even when we can’t see how it could be for good.

Job had more reasons to despair than almost anyone, yet he trusted in God. He didn’t know why he was being put through such loss, but his loss increased his faith in God and was a great example to people throughout history. I also love this cry of his heart.

“Oh that my words were written!\ Oh that they were inscribed in a book!” (Job 19:23)

He may or may not have seen even the partial fulfillment of this cry, but His words are written in the book of Job, in the Holy Scriptures read by Jews and Christians throughout the world and throughout history. Job’s first response to loss was an example to us all. After losing all ten children and all of his wealth, this was his response.

Then Job arose and tore his robe and shaved his head, and he fell to the ground and worshiped. (Job 1:20)

Yes, it is true that he had moments of despair where he cursed his birth, but he then returned to God in faith and hope. After a brief rebuke from God, Job submitted to God’s will.

“Behold, I am insignificant; what can I reply to You?\ I lay my hand on my mouth.\ Once I have spoken, and I will not answer;\ Even twice, and I will add nothing more.” (Job 40:4-5)

After his second rebuke from God, he fully submitted.

Then Job answered the Lord and said,

“I know that You can do all things,\ And that no purpose of Yours can be thwarted.\ ‘Who is this that hides counsel without knowledge?’\ *Therefore I have declared that which I did not understand,\ Things too wonderful for me, which I did not know.\ ‘Hear, now, and I will speak;\ I will ask You, and You instruct me*.’\ I have heard of You by the hearing of the ear;\ But now my eye sees You;\ Therefore I retract,\ And I repent in dust and ashes**.” (Job 42:1-6) {emphasis mine}

Job admitted that he did not understand what God was doing, but that God was right; God was good; and God was Lord. Job was able to have hope knowing that God was in control and working for good.

In the case of Job, he was later blessed with more kids, more wealth, and more respect than he had in the beginning. We won’t all see our blessings here on earth, but all believers will receive blessings from their trials.

May our glorious Savior and God fill you with faith and hope in God, His goodness, His power, and His plan. May we all submit to His good will even when we do not understand and even when every part of our earthly body is crying, “stop!” May God fill you with knowledge of Him, faith in Him, and hope in Him.

Trust Jesus

@ 812cff5a:5c40aeeb

NIP-01 — الشكل الأساسي للأحداث في نُستر

رقم التعريف (NIP): 01
العنوان: الشكل الأساسي للأحداث
الحالة: نهائي
المؤلف: fiatjaf
التاريخ: 2020-12-10

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الملخص

هذا المستند يعرّف الشكل القياسي لأي "حدث" يتم تداوله ضمن شبكة نُستر (Nostr).
الهدف من هذا التنسيق هو ضمان إمكانية معالجة وتفسير الأحداث من قبل جميع العملاء والخوادم بطريقة موحّدة.

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هيكل الحدث

كل حدث عبارة عن كائن يحتوي على الحقول التالية:

{ "id": <معرّف فريد>, "pubkey": <مفتاح عام للمرسل>, "created_at": <تاريخ الإنشاء كرقم UNIX timestamp>, "kind": <نوع الحدث>, "tags": [<قائمة من الوسوم>], "content": <المحتوى>, "sig": <التوقيع الرقمي> }

---

شرح الحقول

• id: سلسلة نصية تمثل SHA-256 لمحتوى الحدث.
• pubkey: المفتاح العام للمستخدم (عادةً 32 بايت بصيغة hex).
• created_at: الطابع الزمني للإنشاء (Unix timestamp).
• kind: رقم يحدد نوع الحدث (مثلاً: منشور، متابعة، إعادة نشر).
• tags: قائمة من الوسوم المرتبطة بالحدث (مثلاً: إشارة إلى مستخدم أو حدث).
• content: المحتوى الأساسي للحدث (نص أو بيانات).
• sig: التوقيع الرقمي الذي يثبت أن المرسل هو صاحب المحتوى.

---

كيفية توليد معرف الحدث id

يتم توليد المعرّف عبر أخذ تمثيل JSON للحدث (بدون الحقول id و sig) ثم حساب التجزئة باستخدام SHA-256.

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توقيع الحدث

يُوقّع المستخدم الحدث باستخدام مفتاحه الخاص.
هذا التوقيع الرقمي يسمح لأي شخص بالتحقق من صحة الحدث باستخدام المفتاح العام.

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أنواع الأحداث (kind)

• 0: ملف التعريف (الاسم، الصورة، النبذة).
• 1: منشور عام نصي.
• 2: إعادة نشر.
• 3: قائمة المتابَعين.
• 4: رسالة مشفّرة خاصة.
• أنواع أخرى يمكن إضافتها لاحقًا.

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الوسوم (Tags)

الوسوم عبارة عن قوائم (arrays) داخل الحدث لتوفير معلومات إضافية.
مثال:

["e", "<معرّف الحدث>"] ["p", "<مفتاح عام لمستخدم>"]

• "e" تشير إلى حدث.
• "p" تشير إلى مستخدم.

---

الخلاصة

NIP-01 هو الأساس الهيكلي لتبادل الأحداث عبر نُستر.
من خلال اتباع هذا الشكل، يمكن لجميع التطبيقات والخوادم العمل معاً بسلاسة، وضمان أمن وموثوقية كل حدث.

@ 5f078e90:b2bacaa3

Sylvi the seahorse

In the coral haven of Azure Bay, a seahorse named Sylvi danced with the tides. Her tail curled around a swaying frond as she watched fish dart by. One dawn, a lost pearl rolled into her nook. Sylvi, curious, nudged it along the reef, meeting crabs and eels who shared tales of the deep. By dusk, she found its oyster home. The pearl gleamed thanks, and Sylvi twirled home, her heart light as foam.

Ignore this test. This was in bold originally.

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Originally written on habla.news (on Nostr)