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Her work explores the intersection of tradition and innovation in wheel-thrown ceramics. Rooted in time-honored techniques, she push the boundaries of clay’s structural possibilities—incorporating hollow tubes, flat rings, curves, and trimmed ridges to create forms that feel both organic and futuristic. These experimental designs challenge gravity and balance, evoking a space-age aesthetic while remaining deeply connected to the tactile nature of craft.

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引言

AI 技术的突飞猛进正重塑国家间博弈的格局。在可预见的未来，人工智能（AI）将推动国家实力的重新构建。OpenAI CEO Sam Altman 指出，未来几年内人类可能迎来“温和奇点”，大量工作将由AI取代blog.samaltman.com；Anthropic（Claude AI背后公司）的CEO则警告，美国失业率可能因AI而飙升至两位数甚至约20%finance.sina.com.cn。这意味着 AI 带来的生产力飞跃伴随严峻的社会阵痛，各国政府必须争夺AI制高点以掌控未来竞争优势——正如俄罗斯总统普京早在2017年所言：“谁掌握了AI，谁就能统治世界”axios.com。因此，中美两国均将AI视作国家战略高地，在这一动态博弈中展开竞逐。

然而，在AI集中赋能国家力量的同时，比特币作为决胜性变量悄然登上舞台。美国政界出现一种耐人寻味的观点：AI代表的是一种自上而下、可能强化集权的“左侧力量”，而比特币等去中心化创新属于“右侧力量”，可以对AI形成制衡eweek.com。2025年5月，美国副总统J.D.万斯（Vance）在比特币大会上的讲话就体现了这一点——他将AI称为左倾（共产主义式）的技术力量，而加密货币尤其是比特币被视为具有保守自由色彩的技术，能够平衡AI可能带来的集中化趋势eweek.com。

基于此背景，我们假设本轮技术周期中，比特币发挥了类“数字黄金”的作用并直接取代传统黄金地位：价格飞涨至38万美元以上，大批企业（如MicroStrategy）将比特币纳入资产负债表，视其为主权资产锚定的新基准。这一趋势下，美国加速将比特币和稳定币整合进官方金融体系，构建“美元+比特币”双层货币架构，通过稳定币扩散美元影响力并冲击他国法币insurancekhabar.cominsurancekhabar.com；反之，中国依然全面拒绝比特币（自2021年以来严禁加密交易和挖矿reuters.com），继续大举增持黄金作为储备，并押注自身央行数字货币。在这样的博弈版图下，比特币可能成为影响胜负的关键变量。

本文将基于博弈论视角构建动态多方博弈模型，以刻画上述格局中的关键问题：(1) AI推动下国家力量如何重构？为何各国必须争夺AI制高点？(2) 当AI导致国家权力高度集中时，比特币如何提供不可征收的资产锚定来形成网络化的反平衡力量？(3) 中美两种AI体制的博弈结构如何决定了中国在拒绝比特币条件下可能陷入失败，而美国则可借助“比特币+发钱”等政策缓和AI失业冲击？(4) 个体如何凭借比特币对抗“AI威权”，促使世界走向网络化的稳定新结构，而非陷入新冷战？文章将分为引言、模型结构、均衡演化路径和结论四部分，为高认知读者提供一个严谨而富有现实感的战略研判框架。

模型结构

**参与方与策略定义：**本博弈模型涵盖三个主要行动方：（a）国家行为体（主要是中、美两国），（b）企业级主权力量（大型科技企业、持有比特币的大型公司等），以及（c）普通个体/公民与分布式网络。这是一个多维博弈：既包括AI竞赛这一技术军备维度，也包括以比特币为代表的新型金融资产维度，以及国家与个体间权力再平衡维度。

1. 国家（中、美）在AI领域的竞争：中美视AI为获取综合国力的战略高地，均有强烈动机投入巨资抢占领先位置。AI具有明显的赢家通吃效应，领先者可能在军事、经济、信息控制等方面获得压倒性优势axios.comeconomictimes.indiatimes.com。正如普京和Palantir公司CEO的判断，AI竞赛极可能“只有一个赢家”，要么美国胜出要么中国胜出axios.comeconomictimes.indiatimes.com。因此在博弈模型中，争夺AI主导权是双方的首要策略选择，每一方都不能放松——这类似于囚徒困境中的军备竞赛：任何一方停止努力都可能被另一方弯道超车从而“称霸世界”。

2. AI导致的权力集中与国家内部博弈：AI大规模替代人类劳动将显著提高生产率，同时造成结构性失业和财富向掌握AI技术的精英/资本高度集中blog.samaltman.comfinance.sina.com.cn。这会强化国家机器和大资本对社会的控制力（例如利用AI进行大规模监控、无人武器等），使国家权力相对个体更为集中。博弈模型中，各国政府面临内部稳定博弈：如何安抚因AI失业而不满的公众，同时继续巩固自身执政联盟。在民主国家（如美国），执政联盟规模大（需要赢得广大选民支持），政府倾向于提供公共物品或直接发放补贴以维持民众满意度blog.devtang.comblog.devtang.com。例如，Altman就预测未来社会因为AI冲击会出现“新政策创想”和渐进式的新社会契约blog.samaltman.com——这暗示可能出台普惠式补贴/UBI等政策，即所谓“发钱政策”，以缓和失业阵痛。而在威权体制（如中国），执政“致胜联盟”小而精英化blog.devtang.com，“核心支持者”的利益优先于大众利益blog.devtang.com。此时政府可能更倾向通过强化控制和定向利益输送维持稳定，而不是普惠发钱。一旦由于财政收入锐减或经济失速导致无法满足联盟利益，政权稳定将受到威胁blog.devtang.com。因此在模型中，不同体制下政府选择的内部应对策略截然不同：民主政权偏好通过财富再分配稳住大联盟，威权政权则偏好强化控制、保障小联盟利益。但AI带来的挑战规模空前，威权政府若无足够“弹药”（财政盈余或新型资产）去收买人心，就可能出现“致胜联盟”维持困难，即财政失衡引发政权不稳blog.devtang.com。

3. **货币金融维度的博弈：**这是模型的第二维——围绕全球储备资产和货币体系的新博弈。假设情景下，美国选择拥抱比特币和稳定币，将其纳入国家金融战略，而中国选择拒绝比特币坚守黄金。那么各自的策略及收益如下：

4. 美国策略：整合比特币+美元，推广稳定币。具体包括：允许并鼓励机构大量持有比特币，将其视为“数字黄金”储备；政府通过立法完善稳定币监管（如推出《GENIUS稳定币法案》等）以扩大美元稳定币的全球使用nevadacurrent.comnevadacurrent.com；甚至总统令建立国家比特币战略储备reuters.com。预期收益：一方面，比特币价格飙升带动美国持有者财富上升，MicroStrategy等公司已尝到甜头，资产负债表上囤积了价值400亿美金以上的比特币finance.sina.com.cn。华尔街分析师预测，比特币有望在未来十年最终取代黄金成为首要价值存储，finance.sina.com.cn甚至特朗普政府内部有人倡议卖出黄金储备改买比特币finance.sina.com.cn。另一方面，美元稳定币的大规模推广巩固了美元霸权：全球用户在链上广泛使用美元稳定币，相当于变相扩大美元的影响圈insurancekhabar.cominsurancekhabar.com。稳定币背后的储备主要是美国国债，这意味着稳定币越多，美国国债需求越大，从而压低美国融资成本insurancekhabar.cominsurancekhabar.com。有专家指出，美国大力推动加密货币和稳定币，是看中了它们可以成为经济武器：“稳定币将取代外国政府，成为美债最大买家”insurancekhabar.com。这为美国在AI时代实施大规模财政转移（如发放失业补贴、科技红利）提供了弹药：全球对美元资产的需求使美联储有更大余地印钞而不致本币崩溃。简言之，美国整合比特币+稳定币体系，可强化其金融主导权和财政灵活性，既能对外输出通胀、打击他国法币，又能对内从容应对AI失业的救济开支。

5. 中国策略：拒绝比特币，囤积黄金+推数字人民币。中国自2017-2021年对加密货币连出重拳（取缔交易所、禁止矿业、封锁境内交易）reuters.com，“宁要区块链，不要加密币”的政策表明其决心彻底隔绝比特币等去中心化货币。取而代之，中国持续加码黄金储备：据央行公告，中国已连续多月增持黄金，官方储备突破2000吨并仍在增长中（此举在地缘政治不确定性下尤为明显）。同时，中国大力推广央行数字货币（数字人民币），试图在国内实现对货币流通的全面可控，并谋求在国际贸易中推动人民币结算。预期影响：由于拒绝比特币，中国希望通过黄金提升本币信用，通过数字人民币强化资本管制和货币政策独立性。然而此策略的风险在于，若比特币在全球范围内取代黄金地位，中国将错失这一新型储备资产红利。当美国等推动比特币升值并将其金融化时，中国手中的黄金可能相对贬值或增长滞后。此外，稳定币对他国法币的冲击也波及人民币：虽然中国严格限制境内稳定币流通，但在跨境贸易和地下金融中，美元稳定币和比特币可能绕过管制，被企业和富裕阶层用于对冲人民币贬值或资本外逃。这相当于一个金融围堵：美国利用数字货币在全球吸纳流动性，削弱人民币在“一带一路”等领域的渗透。中国若坚持封锁比特币和民间加密交易，可能面临“两难”：要么严厉执法资本管制、牺牲部分经济自由和国际化进程；要么在全球数字经济中逐渐边缘化，被排除在新金融网络之外。总之，中国此策略短期内保障了国家对金融系统的控制权，但长期存在与世界脱节、储备资产单一（黄金）的隐患。

6. 个体与网络力量的崛起：第三个维度的博弈发生在国家 vs. 个体/分布式网络之间。AI和加密技术的发展，使得一批技术公司和个人获得了前所未有的自主力量——他们可以同时获取AI赋能和持有不可被国家任意剥夺的财富（比特币）。在模型中，这些分散的个人/企业构成一张跨国网络，他们的策略是利用技术和资本的流动性在全球范围内“择优而居”。如果某国政策有利（如美国欢迎加密创新、提供完善法律保障），人才和资金就会流向该国；反之，若政策高压（如中国禁止民间持币、严格审查AI应用），那么这些人才与资金可以通过数字途径逃逸（capital flight）。比特币在其中充当关键的**“退出票”（exit option）：它具有强抗审查和无法被没收的属性，保障了私人财产的自由转移nymag.com。“比特币无法被当局像没收黄金那样没收，无法像银行账户那样随意冻结，亦无法像法币那样被央行肆意贬值或被独裁者通过资本管制任意阻断”nymag.com。这一属性意味着个人第一次拥有了对抗国家财权的有效工具**。在博弈模型中，个体玩家的存在使国家行为体不再是单纯的统一行动者——国家内部会因为个人/企业的选择而出现博弈反馈：如果政策过于损害个人利益，他们有能力通过比特币等手段规避，从而削弱国家政策效果。这相当于在国家与国家的对局中，引入了一个“平衡器”——全球网络化个人势力。他们的目标并非争夺领土或传统主权，而是在寻求“个体主权”最大化：自由拥有财富、自由迁徙和创新、不受制于单一政府。这股力量在AI时代尤为重要，因为AI集中化倾向可以被这种分散网络部分抵消。例如，AI赋能下的个人黑客、科技创业者可以不依赖国家资本也开发出强大模型；若遭遇压制，他们可携带比特币远走他国继续创业。博弈的结果将取决于国家能否与这股网络力量共存，以及在多大程度上满足个人对自由与财富安全的需求。

均衡演化路径

基于上述模型结构，我们推演中美博弈及全球格局的动态演化路径。博弈分阶段进行，各阶段的策略互动将把体系推向不同的均衡态。

阶段1：AI军备竞赛与金融布局（现在至近期）。这一阶段中美都全力投入AI研发，以获取先发优势。双方持续加大对半导体、算法和人才的投入，并在国际规则上博弈（如出口管制、人才签证等）。博弈特征类似“军备竞赛”：任何单方面的松懈都会导致对手大幅领先，因此均衡结果是双方都倾向投入高强度资源，直至边际成本难以承受。与此同时，双方在金融领域开始布局各自阵地：美国在2024-2025年间通过了一系列亲加密政策——国会推进稳定币立法以合法化美元稳定币nevadacurrent.com，“数字资产市场结构”法案呼之欲出；行政层面，特朗普政府下令创建国家比特币储备，将执法机构此前持有或没收的比特币纳入战略储备reuters.com。这些举措表明美国意在将比特币作为国家金融武器的一部分来运用。相应地，比特币市场开始出现质变：主流机构投资者蜂拥而入，现货比特币ETF获得批准且规模激增，短短时间累积数千亿美元资金finance.sina.com.cn。比特币价格屡创新高并稳定在六位数美元以上，朝着20万、30万甚至更高的目标迈进finance.sina.com.cn。企业层面，MicroStrategy等公司持续买入，比特币在一些公司资产负债表中的地位堪比现金储备finance.sina.com.cn。美国的这一系列动作，使其在**“新数字货币冷战”**中占得先机：美元+比特币组合开始对全球产生强磁吸效应。

反观中国，同期则进入防御性应对状态。面对美国的金融攻势，中国加快了增储黄金和数字人民币试点的步伐，以图筑牢本国金融壁垒。中国人民银行连续数月购入黄金，insurancekhabar.com黄金储备量创历史新高；数字人民币从国内零售场景逐步推广到跨境贸易结算试验，通过区域性协议在部分周边国家开展本币结算合作，以降低对SWIFT美元体系的依赖。同时，中国严格执行对加密活动的严打，关停剩余的OTC交易渠道，宣示绝不让比特币等威胁人民币的货币主权。此阶段的结局是：两个平行的货币体系开始成形——一个是美元主导并吸纳比特币、稳定币的新体系；一个是人民币主导、辅之以黄金背书的封闭体系。

阶段2：AI红利与冲击释放（中期，未来5-10年）。随着AGI雏形和通用机器人逐步出现，人类劳动大规模被替代的效应开始凸显blog.samaltman.com。在美国，AI带来的效率红利令GDP和企业盈利大幅增长，但“技术失业”也引发社会不安。finance.sina.com.cn美国失业率假设攀升至15-20%，尤其白领和服务业岗位大量消失。幸运的是，由于美国及时进行了金融上的前瞻部署，此时财政手段具备充足火力来应对危机。一方面，比特币的暴涨和广泛持有为部分中产和企业带来了资产增值——例如，有投资比特币的家庭财富逆势上涨，部分失业者因持有数字资产而有缓冲储备。政府则可以选择性对这些资产增值征税或者发行主权数字货币购买比特币，实现财政增盈。另一方面，更重要的是**美联储和财政部得以大规模“直升机撒钱”**而不致引发债务危机，这是美元稳定币全球盛行带来的特权insurancekhabar.com。由于全球大量资金以购买美国国债作为稳定币储备，insurancekhabar.com美国政府可以在通胀可控范围内发行货币、扩大赤字以资助全民基本收入或就业项目。比特币在美国的官方接受度也使发钱政策更容易实施：政府完全可以将数字美元直接发送到每个公民的手机钱包（甚至部分用比特币形式发放科技红利）。公众虽然对AI取代工作有所焦虑，但在政府真金白银的兜底下，基本生活有保障，社会动荡被控制在最低程度。这印证了Altman的预言：AI时代世界将更富裕，因此能够“认真考虑以往不可能的新政策”blog.samaltman.com。美国通过比特币财富效应和激进财政政策，初步缓解了AI带来的内部矛盾，其民主制度下“大联盟”的稳定性得以维持。

与之对照，中国在中期则可能面临更严峻的平衡难题。AI同样推动了中国经济的效率，但也使大量制造业和服务业劳动力冗余化。由于缺乏比特币等新财富渠道，大部分民众财富并未随技术进步而增长，反而因失业潮而缩水。民间投资渠道狭窄（楼市低迷、股市震荡），社会的不满情绪上升。此时中国政府进退维谷：若执行大规模刺激或全民补贴，一方面没有储备的“数字资产红利”可用，只能动用巨额财政支出；但中国无法像美国那样让全球来分担本币超发的成本（人民币不是主要储备货币，超发会直接冲击汇率和通胀）。若强行印钞发钱，则可能引发人民币贬值和资本加速外逃，削弱执政信用。历史上来看，威权政府在财政吃紧时维系统治的成本急剧上升，很容易因为买不到执政联盟的忠诚而倒台blog.devtang.com。中国政府当然也深谙此理，因此更可能选择收紧财政、强化管控的方式渡过难关：例如动用警察力量维稳、加强舆论审查来减缓不满爆发。但这样的高压策略长期看难以为继，而且会进一步吓跑高端人才和资本。尤其在比特币价格连创新高的背景下，中国富裕阶层和企业势必更加渴望配置此类全球性资产来保值。一些人会通过地下渠道购入比特币和稳定币，然后设法转移资产出境（哪怕非法也在所不惜）reuters.comsciencedirect.com。这反过来又加剧了中国国内资本外流和财政紧张，形成负反馈。可以预见，如果中国仍拒绝比特币，其金融体系可能出现“致胜联盟”式失衡：政府要么牺牲外汇储备和黄金储备来稳住人民币、安抚利益集团，要么被迫局部放开对加密资产的管制以引回资金，无论哪种都意味着其此前的强硬策略难以持续。

阶段3：博弈格局转变与网络化均衡（远期，10年及以后）。经历中期震荡后，全球博弈格局将出现质变，进入新的均衡态。基于前述趋势，可以预见两种截然不同的结局：

• **美国阵营的胜出与中国策略调整：**如果美国在AI和金融两条战线上都占据了优势，那么远期均衡将体现为美国引领的“新技术-金融秩序”。届时比特币可能已稳固地成为全球储备资产的一极（类似数字黄金），各国央行和主权基金纷纷将其纳入资产配置。美元则通过稳定币牢牢占据全球结算和流动性中介地位。在AI方面，美国凭借开放创新环境汇聚了全球顶尖人才，实现技术持续领先。反观中国，若在中期尝到了拒绝比特币的苦果（经济停滞、财政吃紧、人才外逃），理性的策略调整将是不得不转向美国模式，以免彻底边缘化。这可能包括：逐步放松对加密资产的管制，甚至尝试推出国家主导的加密货币ETF，引导国有机构低调持有比特币以分享其增值；在外交上寻求加入由美国主导的数字货币国际框架，避免本国企业被排除在新贸易结算体系外。此外，中国会继续依靠其黄金储备试图为人民币背书，但如果比特币市值远超黄金且更受年轻一代青睐，黄金的锚定作用将大打折扣。可以说，中国此时面临类似19世纪末“银本位帝国”的困境——清朝因坚守白银而被新兴的金本位体系边缘化insurancekhabar.com；21世纪的中国若固守黄金标准而忽视比特币潮流，恐重蹈历史覆辙。有识之士将呼吁“中国不能错失数字黄金机遇”，倒逼政策松动。最终的均衡可能是：美国及其盟友掌握了AI与金融话语权，而中国被迫加入由比特币和美元构成的新体系，放弃之前的强硬抵制立场。这一结果虽非中国最初意愿，但总比被彻底孤立要好，犹如冷战后期苏联被迫融入布雷顿森林体系一样，是一种策略收缩下的妥协均衡。

• 网络化多中心格局的形成：无论中美博弈如何，此阶段一个更深刻的趋势是全球网络化权力结构的浮现。随着比特币深入人心和应用普及，每个个人和企业都相当于握有自己的“微型主权财富”。正如《主权个体》一书预言的那样，信息时代将削弱民族国家发动战争和征税的能力，取而代之的是个人在全球范围内自由组合、以市场方式选择治理的时代sites.northwestern.edu。当比特币成为“无法征收的资产”标配后，各国政府要汲取民财将更为困难，战争筹资也不再容易sites.northwestern.edu。这是因为：一旦某国大举加税或准备战时管制，资本和人才可以更快捷地逃往别处，政府很难像过去那样通过强制手段动员全国资源。一些论者甚至指出，“在一个基于比特币的社会里，政府若想发动战争，可能不得不向公民众筹军费”reddit.com——这无疑极大提高了发动战争的政治难度。在AI高度发达且武器智能化的背景下，这种网络化制衡力量尤为宝贵，它防止了超级大国因为掌控AI利器而为所欲为。举例来说，如果没有个人财产自由这一“安全阀”，那么拥有强大AI武器和监控系统的国家很可能毫无顾忌地倾压式统治甚至对外侵略；但有了比特币，精英和企业可以用脚投票，拒绝配合极权和战争企图——正如有人所说的，“你无法征税/掠夺那些你无法抓住的人”newstatesman.com。最终，全球可能形成一种“冷战阻止机制”：各国不敢轻易走向新冷战或热战，因为稍有风吹草动，资金和人才就会通过去中心网络逃逸，使战争难以为继。

因此，在远期均衡下，我们将看到国家、企业和个人形成一个互动博弈的多中心体系：国家不再拥有对经济和技术的单方面支配，个人与企业通过持有数字资产和掌握AI技术获得了谈判筹码，各方被迫合作共生而非你死我活。这并非传统意义上的“权力均衡”，而更像是一种动态的网络均衡——权力在不同层级和节点上分散，任何一方试图完全主导都会引发系统中其他节点的自动调节与抵制，最终回归稳态。

结论

综上所述，AI时代的中美博弈结构展现出“技术军备竞赛+金融货币博弈+内部治理较量”三位一体的格局。美国通过在AI和比特币两方面同时发力，形成“左手AI、右手比特币”的双拳策略，既争取了AI制高点，又利用比特币这一“不受征服的资产”稳固了内部与外部的平衡nymag.com。反观中国，倘若固守传统思维拒绝比特币，则在AI导致集权加深的同时失去了由比特币提供的网络化反平衡力量，极可能重现“致胜联盟”财政失衡和战略被动的局面。正如博弈模型分析所示，中国若不及时调整，将因无法有效吸纳AI红利、又无法借助新金融工具缓冲冲击，而陷入内外交困的困境；相反，美国通过比特币+发钱政策有望缓解技术失业压力，在维护社会稳定的同时进一步增强对外金融攻势，实现以较小代价度过转型阵痛。

更深一层的洞见在于：比特币作为“无法征收的资产”（unconfiscatable asset），为无数个人和企业提供了在AI强权面前自我保护和抗衡的手段nymag.com。它让个体可以自由掌控自己创造的AI收益和财富，不必担心随时被征用或剥夺，从而在国家与国家的博弈中引入了一个独立稳定器。这个稳定器确保了国家不敢轻启战争或极端压榨，否则公民的财富和才能将自动逃逸，令其损失巨大。这种机制有望阻止人类社会滑入新一轮两极对抗或热战冲突，因为权力过度集中将引发去中心网络的本能反制。取而代之，人类可能走向一种“网络化稳定结构”：在这个结构中，AI带来的繁荣由各国共享，但没有任何一方能垄断；比特币作为全球共同的价值锚和信任媒介，保障了个人基本财产权，从而软化了国家机器的锋芒。

对于高认知的决策者而言，这一博弈分析传递出明确的战略启示：拥抱比特币等去中心化创新，实际上是在为本国社会安装安全阀，避免因AI高度集中而产生体制性风险；同时，这也是在国际博弈中抢占未来金融体系的话语权。在AI与国家力量此消彼长的新时代，比特币扮演了关键的“平衡木”角色：它连接着国家与国家、国家与个人，确保没有人可以轻易掀翻整艘人类文明之舟。唯有善用这一新型稳定器，引导世界朝开放协作而非封闭对立演化，我们才能把握AI奇点带来的机遇，避免重蹈冷战或冲突的历史覆辙。人类社会或许将凭借这种网络化的平衡，在巨变中找到新的稳定与新秩序sites.northwestern.edu——在AI的洪流中乘风破浪，而非沉舟觅踪。

参考资料：

1. Sam Altman，《温和奇点》博文对AI发展的展望blog.samaltman.com

2. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei，关于AI导致失业的警告finance.sina.com.cn

3. J.D. Vance 副总统在Bitcoin 2025大会讲话摘要，对AI和比特币的定位eweek.comreuters.com

4. Bernstein投行报告：比特币取代黄金的十年预测，MicroStrategy持币策略等finance.sina.com.cnfinance.sina.com.cn

5. Nevada Current对Bitcoin大会的报道：稳定币立法（GENIUS法案）进展nevadacurrent.comnevadacurrent.com

6. Reuters：特朗普行政令建立国家比特币储备、美国拥抱比特币对抗中国reuters.comreuters.com

7. Insurance Khabar：Deepak Garg 关于美中金融战与稳定币武器化的分析insurancekhabar.cominsurancekhabar.com

8. 《独裁者手册》理论：致胜联盟与政权稳定的关系blog.devtang.com

9. New York Magazine：《比特币无法被没收，不能冻结，不能由央行贬值》nymag.com

10. 《主权个体》观点：信息技术削弱国家征税和战争能力sites.northwestern.edu

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Vibe coding is taking the nostr developer community by storm. While it's all very exciting and interesting, I think it's important to pump the brakes a little - not in order to stop the vehicle, but to try to keep us from flying off the road as we approach this curve.

In this note Pablo is subtweeting something I said to him recently (although I'm sure he's heard it from other quarters as well):

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzp75cf0tahv5z7plpdeaws7ex52nmnwgtwfr2g3m37r844evqrr6jqy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qghwaehxw309aex2mrp0yh8qunfd4skctnwv46z7qg6waehxw309ac8junpd45kgtnxd9shg6npvchxxmmd9uqzq0z48d4ttzzkupswnkyt5a2xfkhxl3hyavnxjujwn5k2k529aearwtecp4

There is a naive, curmudgeonly case for simply "not doing AI". I think the intuition is a good one, but the subject is obviously more complicated - not doing it, either on an individual or a collective level, is just not an option. I recently read Tools for Conviviality by Ivan Illich, which I think can help us here. For Illich, the best kind of tool is one which serves "politically interrelated individuals rather than managers".

This is obviously a core value for bitcoiners. And I think the talks given at the Oslo Freedom Forum this year present a compelling case for adoption of LLMs for the purposes of 1. using them for good, and 2. developing them further so that they don't get captured by corporations and governments. Illich calls both the telephone and print "almost ideally convivial". I would add the internet, cryptography, and LLMs to this list, because each one allows individuals to work cooperatively within communities to embody their values in their work.

But this is only half the story. Illich also points out how "the manipulative nature of institutions... have put these ideally convivial tools at the service of more [managerial dominance]."

Preventing the subversion and capture of our tools is not just a matter of who uses what, and for which ends. It also requires an awareness of the environment that the use of the tool (whether for virtuous or vicious ends) creates, which in turn forms the abilities, values, and desires of those who inhabit the environment.

The natural tendency of LLMs is to foster ignorance, dependence, and detachment from reality. This is not the fault of the tool itself, but that of humans' tendency to trade liberty for convenience. Nevertheless, the inherent values of a given tool naturally gives rise to an environment through use: the tool changes the world that the tool user lives in. This in turn indoctrinates the user into the internal logic of the tool, shaping their thinking, blinding them to the tool's influence, and neutering their ability to work in ways not endorsed by the structure of the tool-defined environment.

The result of this is that people are formed by their tools, becoming their slaves. We often talk about LLM misalignment, but the same is true of humans. Unreflective use of a tool creates people who are misaligned with their own interests. This is what I mean when I say that AI use is anti-human. I mean it in the same way that all unreflective tool use is anti-human. See Wendell Berry for an evaluation of industrial agriculture along the same lines.

What I'm not claiming is that a minority of high agency individuals can't use the technology for virtuous ends. In fact, I think that is an essential part of the solution. Tool use can be good. But tools that bring their users into dependence on complex industry and catechize their users into a particular system should be approached with extra caution. The plow was a convivial tool, and so were early tractors. Self-driving John Deere monstrosities are a straightforward extension of the earlier form of the technology, but are self-evidently an instrument of debt slavery, chemical dependency, industrial centralization, and degradation of the land. This over-extension of a given tool can occur regardless of the intentions of the user. As Illich says:

There is a form of malfunction in which growth does not yet tend toward the destruction of life, yet renders a tool antagonistic to its specific aims. Tools, in other words, have an optimal, a tolerable, and a negative range.

The initial form of a tool is almost always beneficial, because tools are made by humans for human ends. But as the scale of the tool grows, its logic gets more widely and forcibly applied. The solution to the anti-human tendencies of any technology is an understanding of scale. To prevent the overrun of the internal logic of a given tool and its creation of an environment hostile to human flourishing, we need to impose limits on scale.

Tools that require time periods or spaces or energies much beyond the order of corresponding natural scales are dysfunctional.

My problem with LLMs is:

• Not their imitation of human idioms, but their subversion of them and the resulting adoption of robotic idioms by humans
• Not the access they grant to information, but their ability to obscure accurate or relevant information
• Not their elimination of menial work, but its increase (Bullshit Jobs)
• Not their ability to take away jobs, but their ability to take away the meaning found in good work
• Not their ability to confer power to the user, but their ability to confer power to their owner which can be used to exploit the user
• Not their ability to solve problems mechanistically, but the extension of their mechanistic value system to human life
• Not their explicit promise of productivity, but the environment they implicitly create in which productivity depends on their use
• Not the conversations they are able to participate in, but the relationships they displace

All of these dysfunctions come from the over-application of the technology in evaluating and executing the fundamentally human task of living. AI work is the same kind of thing as an AI girlfriend, because work is not only for the creation of value (although that's an essential part of it), but also for the exercise of human agency in the world. In other words, tools must be tools, not masters. This is a problem of scale - when tool use is extended beyond its appropriate domain, it becomes what Illich calls a "radical monopoly" (the domination of a single paradigm over all of human life).

So the important question when dealing with any emergent technology becomes: how can we set limits such that the use of the technology is naturally confined to its appropriate scale?

Here are some considerations:

• Teach people how to use the technology well (e.g. cite sources when doing research, use context files instead of fighting the prompt, know when to ask questions rather than generate code)
• Create and use open source and self-hosted models and tools (MCP, stacks, tenex). Refuse to pay for closed or third-party hosted models and tools.
• Recognize the dependencies of the tool itself, for example GPU availability, and diversify the industrial sources to reduce fragility and dependence.
• Create models with built-in limits. The big companies have attempted this (resulting in Japanese Vikings), but the best-case effect is a top-down imposition of corporate values onto individuals. But the idea isn't inherently bad - a coding model that refuses to generate code in response to vague prompts, or which asks clarifying questions is an example. Or a home assistant that recognized childrens' voices and refuses to interact.
• Divert the productivity gains to human enrichment. Without mundane work to do, novice lawyers, coders, and accountants don't have an opportunity to hone their skills. But their learning could be subsidized by the bots in order to bring them up to a level that continues to be useful.
• Don't become a slave to the bots. Know when not to use it. Talk to real people. Write real code, poetry, novels, scripts. Do your own research. Learn by experience. Make your own stuff. Take a break from reviewing code to write some. Be independent, impossible to control. Don't underestimate the value to your soul of good work.
• Resist both monopoly and "radical monopoly". Both naturally collapse over time, but by cultivating an appreciation of the goodness of hand-crafted goods, non-synthetic entertainment, embodied relationship, and a balance between mobility and place, we can relegate new, threatening technologies to their correct role in society.

I think in all of this is implicit the idea of technological determinism, that productivity is power, and if you don't adapt you die. I reject this as an artifact of darwinism and materialism. The world is far more complex and full of grace than we think.

The idea that productivity creates wealth is, as we all know, bunk. GDP continues to go up, but ungrounded metrics don't reflect anything about the reality of human flourishing. We have to return to a qualitative understanding of life as whole, and contextualize quantitative tools and metrics within that framework.

Finally, don't believe the hype. Even if AI delivers everything it promises, conservatism in changing our ways of life will decelerate the rate of change society is subjected to and allow time for reflection and proper use of the tool. Curmudgeons are as valuable as technologists. There will be no jobspocalypse if there is sufficient political will to value human good over mere productivity. It's ok to pump the breaks.

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中美近期谈判的博弈分析：模型、均衡与演化前景

一、背景与问题概述

2025年中美经贸谈判出现了最新进展：中国同意恢复出口稀土（包括稀土磁体等关键材料），美国则在中国留学生签证政策上作出让步，但双方并未在关税上相互让步，仍维持高额关税壁垒reuters.comreuters.com。这一结果是中美经贸冲突持续多年的阶段性产物。在此之前，中美互征高额关税、一度接近全面“脱钩”，双方还通过稀土出口管制和留学签证限制等手段施压对方，导致贸易额大幅下滑、供应链紧张axios.comenglish.kyodonews.net。这一局势引发了以下博弈论层面的核心问题：当前达成的部分妥协是否构成某种博弈均衡？如果是，这属于短期策略性均衡，还是预示着中美关系可能进入类似冷战的长期对峙均衡？此外，未来有哪些外部冲击因素可能打破当前均衡或使其演化为新的稳定态？本文将以博弈模型框架对此进行分析，探讨多种均衡形态（包括但不限于纳什均衡、“科尔奈-科曼达”均衡、演化均衡等），评估其稳定性，并结合历史经验和现实因素展望演化路径。

二、博弈模型框架

1. 博弈参与者与利益：博弈双方为中国和美国，两国均为战略理性参与者。双方利益既有冲突也有重叠：中国重视维持经济增长、技术发展及国家安全，希望解除美国对其高科技封锁和贸易壁垒；美国重视维护其技术优势和贸易利益，要求中国开放市场并停止在关键资源和技术领域对美“卡脖子”。双方都希望减少自身经济损失，又不愿在战略上示弱。

2. 策略集合：双方在多个博弈维度上可选择策略。为简化分析，可聚焦三大维度：

• 关税政策：继续高关税（强硬策略）或降低关税（合作策略）。目前现实是双方仍维持高关税水平，美国综合关税约55%（包含之前各类加征），中国约10%reuters.com（显著低于美方）。

• 战略资源/技术出口管制：如中国对稀土等关键矿物的出口管制 vs 美国对高科技（芯片软件等）的出口管制。策略上可以选择实施/维持管制（强硬）或取消管制（让步）。本次中国选择取消对稀土磁体的出口限制，属合作让步；美国也表示将放松对华高科技出口管制中的一些领域english.kyodonews.netcsis.org。

• 人员交流及其它领域：如留学生签证、金融投资等。美国此次在签证上让步，允许更多中国学生赴美，属合作策略reuters.com；中国则一直希望维持人员正常交流。双方在此维度暂时采取了互惠合作的策略。

上述维度可视作多阶段博弈或多重议题博弈。为便于分析，可将其抽象为一个综合双人博弈模型：每一方都有“强硬”(H)和“合作”(C)两种总体策略取向，但在具体议题上可以组合选择（如在稀土上C、在关税上H）。这使博弈呈现出策略组合的多样性，而非简单的单次囚徒困境。但为了直观起见，我们可首先假设一个简化的对称博弈（类似囚徒困境的收益结构）来捕捉基本激励，再扩展讨论复杂均衡。

3. 收益支付（概念性）：双方策略的组合将决定各自收益：

• 双强硬 (H, H)：双方都坚持高关税+资源封锁等措施，彼此损害，进入全面贸易战/科技战。收益表现为两败俱伤：经济损失大，供应链断裂，科技交流停滞（负收益）。例如，2025年初双方互加惩罚性关税至三位数、彼此禁止关键出口时，就出现了贸易额骤降（中国对美出口同比-34.5%）english.kyodonews.net、企业巨额损失和市场动荡。

• 双合作 (C, C)：双方都选择降低关税、解除限制，实现贸易正常化和科技交流。此时总体收益最大（双赢）：经济恢复、供需正常。但由于存在信任赤字，此状态不稳定——正如囚徒困境中“双合作”虽帕累托最优，却因单方作弊诱因而难自发实现medium.com。

• 单方强硬、一方合作 (H, C)或(C, H)：这一不对称组合下，强硬方利用对方的合作获取单方面优势：例如美国若坚持高关税而中国单方面降低关税并开放市场，则美方可同时享受关税保护和中方市场开放，收益最高；反之亦然。被动合作的一方则处于劣势，政治上承压。因此，这类似**“鸡奸博弈”（Chicken Game）或领导者-追随者博弈**格局。

当前谈判结果实际上接近于一种不对称均衡：美国在关税上保持强硬立场（H），而中国并未同等报复（其对美关税仅10%，远低于美方）reuters.com。同时中国在稀土管制上让步（C），美国在签证上让步（C）。可以理解为美国在经贸领域强硬而中国相对克制，美国在人员交流领域部分合作回应。这种策略组合带来的结果是美国宣称获得巨大贸易保护（“我们得到55%关税”）而中国则确保关键资源供应恢复和部分交流正常reuters.comreuters.com。双方各自得到关切的利益点：美国保住了对华高关税（满足其产业和选民需求），中国保住了留学生和稀土出口市场。但很多根本性分歧并未解决，处于暂时搁置状态reuters.com。

4. 博弈类型：这可以看作一个重复博弈/动态博弈。中美经贸冲突从2018年至今反复拉锯，多轮谈判和报复，已经是一个长期博弈过程。各阶段的策略选择和均衡都受到历史策略和信誉影响。因此分析均衡需考虑静态（一次性博弈均衡）和动态（演化均衡、子博弈完美均衡等）两种层次。

三、多种均衡形态探索

1. 纳什均衡 (Nash Equilibrium)：在单次非合作博弈框架下，纳什均衡是双方策略互为最佳回应的稳定点。根据上述收益格局，可能存在以下纳什均衡：

• “双强硬”均衡：如果互相采取强硬策略是彼此的最佳回应，则 (H, H) 构成纳什均衡。这对应于双方都不信任对方合作，选择关税壁垒和制裁的情形。2018-2024年的贸易战大部分时间里，中美实际上陷入了这样的互相报复均衡，哪怕该状态令双方经济受损axios.com。这种均衡稳定但低效：没有一方能通过单边改变策略获利（单方让步将遭对方剥削），因此维持对峙，但集体收益远低于合作状态。

• “不对称”均衡：(H, C) 或 (C, H) 也可能是纳什均衡，取决于双方相对实力与承受力。如上所述，美国坚持高关税而中国克制报复的组合，可能是稳定的：美国的最优回应是继续征税获取贸易保护红利，中国的最优回应是在稀土等领域合作以换取部分利益且避免更大损失medium.com。反过来，如果中国采取强硬而美国克制，也是一种可能（但目前美国国内政治不允许完全克制）。从现实看，本次达成的安排类似 (H, C) ：美国保留高关税（强硬），中国未对等报复且提供稀土（合作）。有分析指出，这种格局在贸易战模型中被视为“最稳定的局面”之一medium.com。然而它对中国而言并非理想，属于一种被迫接受劣势的均衡。

• “双合作”并非均衡： (C, C) 虽让双方收益更高，但由于博弈存在囚徒困境特征，单方偏离合作能获得更大短期利益，因此在一次博弈中双合作不是纳什均衡medium.com——除非有外部约束或信誉机制，使背叛受惩罚。

2. “科尔奈-科曼达”均衡（体制均衡）：所谓“科尔奈-科曼达均衡”可理解为由体制或结构因素支撑的均衡，即即使不满足常规最佳回应原则，却由于外部强制力或内在机制而得以持续的状态。经济学家科尔奈（János Kornai）分析过社会主义经济中的**“短缺均衡”：尽管市场未出清（处于非瓦尔拉斯均衡），短缺状态却能自我再生、长期持续**，因为体制激励使偏离状态自我纠正pubs.aeaweb.org。借用这一思想，中美当前的局势也可视为一种**“非合作的稳定状态”：双方在贸易和技术上未达成真正合作，但建立了一套报复—让步的动态平衡机制**，使对抗强度维持在某个水平，不至于失控。具体体现在：

• 中国虽不满美国高关税和技术封锁，但内部存在缓冲机制（如刺激自主创新、寻找替代市场）来承受压力，同时利用稀土卡位、对美投资限制等措施对美形成反制平衡。这样一种“对抗—适应”的结构使局势形成常态化均衡：虽然远非合作最优，但在现行体制下可以持续且双方习以为常。

• 美国方面，即使对华强硬政策损害了一些本国企业利益，出于安全考量和国内政治共识，其决策机制依然倾向维持对华压力。而美企通过调整供应链、政府通过补贴产业等方式部分缓冲损失。这类似科尔奈笔下的**“短缺经济的自稳定”：扭曲（高关税、高壁垒）的存在引发内部调整，从而固化了扭曲本身，形成一种具有路径依赖**的均衡。

因此，“科尔奈式均衡”在此可指中美长期博弈形成的一种自我延续的对峙常态。这种均衡并非静态最优，但有内部反馈维系其稳定。它可能对应于一种政策均衡或制度均衡：双方政治体制与经济结构已经部分适应了冲突状态，并将其纳入新常态。科曼达（Komanda）一词可能隐喻“Command（命令式）”特点，即双方关系被战略和政治指令所主导，而非市场自发优化。

3. 演化均衡 (Evolutionary Equilibrium)：若将博弈视为重复进行，或者有大量“参与者”（如国内不同利益集团）的策略在演化，则可讨论演化稳定策略（ESS）。在演化视角下，策略会根据相对成功度调整，中美关系的长期走向可被视为一种策略种群的进化过程：

• 演化趋于强硬：若强硬策略在短期博弈中胜出（例如一方强硬往往能在谈判中获取更多，让步的反而被迫吃亏），那么随着时间推移，双方可能都会倾向强硬，最终演化出一个全面对抗的稳定状态。这类似于“鹰鸽博弈”中如果资源价值高且斗争成本可承受，鹰（强硬）策略会成为演化稳定策略。当前中美许多领域有朝着“鹰派占主导”的方向，例如双方国内的民族主义与强硬立场在近年不断强化，使得让步空间缩小。

• 混合均衡：也可能出现混合策略或周期。例如在重复博弈中，双方可能尝试间歇性合作（小幅让步）以试探，然后若对方被视为背信则迅速回到强硬，形成“报复—和解”交替出现的循环。这类似于“触发策略”均衡：默认合作，但一旦对方作弊就触发惩罚阶段。中美过去几年展示了一些这种特征：2019年达成阶段性协议短暂减缓冲突，随后因履约分歧又再度摩擦；2020年-2021年稍有缓和，2022年起围绕科技战又急剧恶化。每一次暂时均衡都因某种刺激被打破，然后演化进入新的冲突均衡。

• 演化稳定并不一定高效，但具有韧性。例如如果当前的部分合作-部分对抗状态在重复互动中证明比全面对抗或全面合作都“抗侵扰”，那么它就可能成为演化稳定策略组合。双方在稀土和签证上交换让步、但在关税和科技上维持对抗，或许就是一种策略组合的进化适应：既避免了极端冲突的不可承受之痛，又不让对手占尽便宜。这状态短期看或是博弈的折中均衡，可能会持续一段时间，直到新的变数出现。

4. 其他均衡概念：除了上述，值得一提的还有：

• 科尔奈-马林沃德均衡：科尔奈曾与马林沃德等研究非均衡经济，提出配给约束下的均衡等概念。在国际博弈中，可以类似地考虑约束均衡：双方由于外部环境（如全球市场、盟友压力）的约束，被迫停留在某均衡。如本次谈判有90天的临时停火协议english.kyodonews.netcsis.org，可视为一种短期约束均衡，由协议强制双方不升级冲突。

• 相关均衡 (Correlated Equilibrium)：如果存在一个可信协调机制，双方可以采取相关策略实现比纳什均衡更优的结果。例如通过国际机构调停，中美同步降低部分关税、同步解除一些出口禁令，则可避免单方面吃亏。但目前缺乏这样的信任机制（WTO等多边框架也遭削弱carnegieendowment.org），因此相关均衡难以达成。

综上可见，中美经贸谈判局势下可能存在多个均衡形态并存：静态地看，强硬对峙是经典纳什均衡；动态地看，阶段性停战是子博弈均衡的一种，但未必稳定；从更长期和结构视角看，可能形成一种长期对抗的常态均衡。

四、均衡稳定性分析

分析各均衡的稳定性（即在外部冲击或单方偏离下能否持续）对评估未来走势至关重要：

• 当前部分妥协均衡的稳定性：本次达成的交换（中国出口稀土、美国放宽签证，关税维持）可以视作一种短期纳什均衡或脆弱的相关均衡。其稳定性较弱，原因有：

• 互信水平低：双方并未解决根本分歧，仅是“各取所需”式的交换，缺乏长期约束力。正如90天贸易休战协议所示，这只是暂时停止升级english.kyodonews.netcsis.org。如果90天后新的谈判未有进展，任何一方都可能恢复强硬举措，均衡即告破裂。

• 激励不对称：美国在关税上占了便宜（55%对10%），可能倾向固守既得利益，缺乏进一步让步动力；中国则可能对这种不对称心存不满，伺机寻求重新谈判条件。一旦中国找到减轻美国关税压力的途径（比如开拓其他出口市场、或美国国内通胀迫使其降税），则中国可能强硬起来要求对等调整，否则就收紧其他合作（如稀土出口配额）。单方偏离的诱因是存在的，使得均衡并不牢固。

• 外部环境多变：地缘政治或国内政治事件都可能令一方突然改变策略（下文详述潜在冲击因素）。当前均衡缺乏“保险机制”抵御这些冲击。

有迹象表明各方也预见到其脆弱：例如美国智库评价称，此次让步只是“临时止痛”，并未消除贸易战已造成的高成本和不确定性csis.orgcsis.org。这种不确定性本身会削弱均衡的可持续性——企业和市场预期不稳，就难以建立长久合作常态。

• 全面冲突均衡的稳定性：如果中美重新陷入全面强硬对抗 (H, H)，这一均衡在某种条件下反而可能具有更高的稳定性，类似冷战时期美苏的对峙平衡：

• 相互威慑/无利可图：当双方都极大增加报复力度，使得任何单方面背离强硬（也就是单方面缓和）都会被对方视为软弱而加以利用时，那么维持对抗成为理性的选择。冷战中，美苏都认识到直接冲突风险巨大，形成了“相互确保摧毁”的核威慑均衡——没有一方有诱因先动carnegieendowment.org。在中美经贸版的冷战中，如果双方完全脱钩，各自建立独立产业链和同盟体系，那么相互依赖减少反而巩固了敌对均衡，因为少有经济动力去打破僵局。

• 国内政治锁定：强硬对抗一旦成为双方国内政治的基础，共识就会固化。例如冷战时期美国社会有跨党共识遏制苏联carnegieendowment.org。目前美国两党对华强硬在一定程度上趋于一致，将中国定位为主要战略竞争者；中国国内民族主义高涨，对美警惕心理强烈。如果这种政治氛围继续强化，领导人反而不敢轻易缓和，长期对峙就成为稳定政策。

• 然而，需要指出全面冲突均衡虽然稳定，但代价高昂而缺乏弹性。一旦出现如经济衰退、盟友变动等压力，其中一方可能难以承受（正如苏联经济最终不堪军备竞赛而崩溃，冷战均衡才终结）。因此静态稳定未必等于动态持久。当前中美离完全脱钩尚有距离，且全球化背景下，全面冲突会遭多方掣肘（盟国、企业利益等），因此真要达到冷战式的稳态并不容易。

• 双边合作均衡的稳定性：如果假设理想情况下双方实现了全面合作 (C, C)，这在博弈上不是自行稳定的，需要可信承诺等机制支撑。稳定合作往往依赖重复博弈阴影（即长期利益）、透明度和执行监督。中美过去曾有紧密经贸合作的阶段（例如中国加入WTO后两国贸易高速增长时期），但近年来这种合作均衡被打破，说明过去的制度化信任不足以约束背叛（比如美国指责中国未履行知识产权保护承诺，中国指责美国滥用贸易制裁）。要恢复稳定合作，除非有新的协议架构和信任重建，否则仍会因为单方追求短期利益而被破坏。短期看，双边全面合作似乎缺乏政治现实性，因此不是目前可行的均衡态。

• “科尔奈式”均衡的稳定性：如果中美进入一种长期非完全合作的常态（亦即部分对抗被体制内化的状态），这种局势可能具有相当持久性。历史上冷战就是典型例子：美苏长期在**“既不开战也不言和”**的紧张和平中相处数十年。其稳定原因包括：

• 结构性分隔：两大阵营经济、政治体系几乎隔绝，交往极少，因而缺少突发变数。若中美今后在经贸科技上大幅减少往来，各自主导不同供应链和技术标准，那么双方互动机会下降，冲突的摩擦面也相对可控，反而容易稳定在彼此默认的势力范围和规则之内。

• 制度自适应：如前述，双方内部调整出一套应对长期对抗的机制（替代产业、军备投入、宣传策略等），就像社会主义经济适应了短缺并持续运转一样pubs.aeaweb.org。一旦适应完成，这种对抗状态反而成了“新常态”，需要剧烈外力才能改变。

• 稳定但低级：值得注意，这类均衡通常效率低下（资源错配、全球福利损失），只是因为缺少打破均衡的动力而持续。例如冷战期间，美苏在军备和代理冲突上耗费巨资，却很少合作解决全球问题，直到苏联难以为继。中美若陷入持久对峙，也会牺牲很多潜在合作收益，但可能双方都愿意承受这个代价来避免在战略上被对方占优。

综合而言，目前的短期停战均衡较脆弱，全面对抗均衡和冷战式长期均衡在特定条件下可能更稳定，但对外部环境和内部承受要求高。均衡的稳定性取决于双方偏离策略的收益差异、一致预期的形成、以及有无自我强化机制。下面进一步探讨当前局势究竟更偏向短期策略均衡，还是将演化为长期对峙。

五、短期策略博弈均衡 vs. 长期对峙态势

1. 短期策略性均衡的特征：从此次谈判看，中美彼此做出的让步都带有策略试探性质，暗示目前状态更像一种短期策略均衡而非双方关系根本转折：

• 交换的局限性：让步集中在各自迫切领域（稀土和签证）reuters.com。这些让步可以迅速兑现又可随时中止（稀土出口许可中国可再收紧，签证政策美国随政令可调）。这显示双方并未进入信任合作的新轨道，而是在交换“筹码”赢得时间。

• 关税、补贴等核心问题未触及：贸易战缘起的结构性问题（市场准入、产业补贴、知识产权、关税全面降级）几乎原封不动。症结未解，只是搁置。CSIS评价称，此次关税从极端高位略有回落（美国从145%降至30%，中国125%降至10%）csis.org，但依然“远高于福利最大化所需水平”，且很多扭曲依旧存在csis.org。双方只是踩了一脚刹车，而非掉头转向。

• 临时协议属性：双方仅同意90天停火并“进一步磋商”english.kyodonews.netcsis.org。这和以前贸易战中数次短暂停战类似（如2018年底的90天停火、2020年签署的第一阶段协议后很快因疫情和政治因素失效）。短期协议往往是策略性调整，各自缓口气、观望对方意图，并非意味着矛盾解决。

基于这些特征，我们判断当前局势更倾向于短期策略均衡：双方在承受巨大经济代价后各退一步，形成暂时平衡reuters.com，但均衡基础脆弱。类似历史上韩战停战谈判、美苏古巴导弹危机后的默契，都属于策略性均衡：降低即时冲突风险，但并未解决根本对立。

2. 向长期对峙演化的可能：尽管当前是暂时妥协，但若双方结构性矛盾无法调和，博弈可能演化出类似冷战的长期对峙：

• 经贸脱钩升级：贸易战已扩展到金融、科技、人文等领域，呈“全谱系”竞争态势moneycontrol.commoneycontrol.com。Moneycontrol等媒体形容，中美贸易战正演变为**“冷战式对抗”**，不仅经济脱钩，还涉及网络安全、军事联盟等moneycontrol.commoneycontrol.com。如果这一趋势持续，双方将逐步构建各自阵营：美国拉拢盟友“经济北约”排斥中国；中国加强与俄等国合作，并以稀土等资源为筹码巩固自身阵营。这与冷战两极阵营形成颇为相似。

• 意识形态与制度之争凸显：冷战的长期对峙不仅是地缘，也是意识形态之争。当下中美分歧部分体现在政治制度和价值观。拜登政府 framing 了“民主 vs 专制”的全球竞争，美对华警惕已上升到制度层面carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。中国则强调美国遏制是因意识形态偏见。这种叙事一旦固化，双方会更倾向零和思维，减少妥协空间，进入价值观冷战态势。从博弈论看，这使合作策略收益相对降低，背叛收益上升，从而合作均衡更难维持，对抗均衡反而被社会接受为常态。

• 技术与军备竞赛：冷战长期稳定在于双方形成军备竞赛均衡，谁也不敢贸然进攻但也不断积累武力。在中美关系中，如果经贸冲突延伸到军备和太空、网络领域，对峙可能更为牢固。例如中美都强调加强太平洋军事部署，一些事件（台海危机等）可能将经济冲突引向准军事对抗轨道carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。Carnegie报告的“新冷战场景”指出，若发生台海或地区安全危机触发双方安全观转变，中美可能进入全面冷战状态：军事上前沿部署、核武戒备提升，经济上急剧脱钩，意识形态上互视为存亡对手carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。那将是一个全方位对峙的长期均衡，很类似美苏冷战后期的态势。

3. 当前均衡演化方向评估：综上，当前的均衡更像短期策略性停战，但演化走向取决于今后若干关键因素（详见下节）。存在两种主要路径：

• 路径A：反复博弈趋向冷战长期对峙。双方在短暂停战后因结构矛盾再起冲突，且每轮冲突都加深裂痕。经济上逐步脱钩，各自牺牲短期利益换取战略安全，国内进一步敌视对方。最终形成如同冷战般“双寡头对峙”的格局，可能持续多年乃至数十年。这种状态下，博弈均衡由短期的策略算计转变为长期的制度性均衡：双方都接受对抗为常态，不再指望对方让步，策略上以稳定自身阵营和遏制对手为目标。均衡稳定性体现在：即使小的外交互动或经济往来也无法撼动整体对立，除非出现剧变（如一方国力大衰退或政权变更）。

• 路径B：竞争中寻求合作共存的均衡。这是相对乐观的演化：在几轮高强度博弈后，双方认识到零和冲突代价沉重，转而尝试建立新规则。历史上美苏在70年代达成了战略武器限制、大三角外交等，使冷战进入**“松弛对峙”均衡**（即缓和时期）carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。类似地，中美也可能探索“竞争共存”框架，例如就贸易投资制定基本准则，划定可以竞争和必须合作的领域，实现某种**“有限合作-有限对抗”的均衡**。这接近于一种演化妥协均衡：不是回到蜜月期，但也避免全面冷战。其稳定性来自双方都看到了长期对抗的不利，愿意约束部分行为以维持全球稳定。这个路径需要高层战略互信逐步恢复，以及外部压力（如全球经济衰退、共同安全威胁）促使合作。

当前看来，路径A的风险在上升。贸易战期间的一些数据和行动表明新冷战苗头：贸易和投资下降但尚未彻底断绝，双方都有顾虑。carnegieendowment.org指出截至2022年中美贸易额仍创新高，说明相互依存仍在，这可能为路径B提供基础——经济纽带让完全对抗变得不利于双方，从而激励寻找折中均衡carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。然而，如果未来政治上完全被安全考虑压倒经济理性，路径A将更可能出现。

六、均衡破裂或维持的影响因素

无论当前均衡持续时间长短，外部冲击和内在变化都可能使局势跳转到新的均衡态。以下因素值得关注：

• 战略资源与技术依赖格局：中美相互依赖是“双刃剑”。例如稀土领域中国占全球产量70%english.kyodonews.net、加工90%axios.com，美国高科技和军工离不开稀土，因此中国有巨大杠杆。但美国正投入建立国内稀土供应链axios.com、寻求他国供应。如果几年内美国显著降低对中稀土依赖，中国失去这一筹码，均衡将倾向美国更强硬（中国难以通过断供威胁迫使美让步）。反之，在半导体等关键技术上，美国优势大，但中国也在追赶自给。一旦中国突破美国制约实现某些技术自主，或找到替代供应（如从第三国购买被禁技术），美国的制裁杠杆效力下降，可能促使其重新考虑策略。这些供需格局变化会打破原有利益平衡，引发新一轮策略调整。

• 经济承受能力：博弈均衡能否持续，一定程度取决于双方经济耐力。如果一方经济出现严重问题而将部分归因于对抗（例如美国因关税引发高通胀、就业受损，或中国因脱钩导致增长放缓过度），国内压力会推动政策转向合作以缓解经济困难csis.orgcsis.org。当前迹象：美国承受高关税引起的物价上升压力，中国也面临出口下滑和资本外流压力。谁更先难以为继，谁就可能先寻求突破均衡。同时，如果某方经济逆势壮大，可能反而更有底气长期对抗。例如有观点称贸易战令美国每年损失GDP约$3000亿csis.org，长远看这是不可持续的税收。类似冷战中苏联经济崩溃最终迫使其改变路线，中美对峙也存在经济极限约束。

• 国内政治与领导人更替：政治周期往往带来策略变化。例如2024美国大选、2027中国领导换届等都可能改变博弈基调。如果美国出现一位倾向缓和对华的总统（或相反更强硬的），政策将剧烈调整，均衡重新塑造。目前特朗普（或持其路线者）再掌权的可能性存在，而特朗普政府对华态度更为强硬、善用极限施压bloomberg.com。果真如此，当前脆弱均衡可能迅速崩塌，重回高压对抗。而若出现类似70年代尼克松式的人物寻求“连接”，也许会推动进入合作均衡窗口期。中国方面，国内政治对美态度近年来强硬是共识，但若经济下行压力迫使政策层调整优先级，也许会释放缓和信号。政策转向窗口往往在领导人第一任期初或重大会议后，需关注这些契机。

• 盟友和国际环境：中美博弈并非孤立，其他大国和国际组织的行为是重要外部变量。

• 美国盟友：如果美国成功拉起对华“统一战线”，对中国进行经济围堵，中国孤立无援下可能被迫进一步强硬反抗或加速自力更生，走向长期对峙。但若盟友出现分化（如欧盟不愿选边、继续和华贸易），美国对华极端施压难奏效，反而可能促使美国调整策略carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。目前欧盟、日本等既跟随美国限制对华部分技术，又希望保持贸易利益，这种摇摆也在影响均衡稳定。

• 第三方冲突：若发生其他突发危机（朝鲜半岛、南海冲突等）需要中美合作应对，可能临时搁置对抗形成共同利益，比如气候变化、全球金融危机等领域，也可能暂时偏移均衡。相反，如果第三方事件加剧对抗（如中俄关系紧密引发新集团对抗西方），均衡将更对立。台海无疑是最大变数，一旦失控几乎必然终结当前任何经济均衡，中美进入全面军事冷战甚至热战状态carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。

• 历史认知和心理因素：冷战经验表明，误判风险和敌意螺旋会固化冲突均衡。当前中美均试图从历史中找参照——美国部分政界认为对华“绥靖”曾失败，应强硬；中国则强调近代受欺辱史，不再退让carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。这些心理因素会影响策略选择，使让步更难。因此除非认知上出现转变（例如双方精英达成“再斗下去两败俱伤”的共识），否则心理上的安全困境会不断加强对抗均衡的稳定性。

总结：影响均衡演变的因素纷繁，但可以概括为：“硬”因素（经济、技术、军事实力和依赖格局变化）决定了对抗的物质可持续性，而**“软”因素**（政治意愿、认知、外交环境）决定了双方有没有契机跳出现有均衡。当前许多因素似乎在朝不利于长期合作的方向发展（技术脱钩、政治强硬化），这增加了短期均衡破裂的概率和长期对峙的可能性。然而，也存在制约对抗的因素（经济全球化的残余纽带、全球挑战需要合作），这些可能在未来某些时刻迫使双方重新评估战略。

七、未来可能的演化路径

结合上述分析，展望中美博弈的未来，有几条主要演化路径和对应均衡可供假设：

• 路径1：重复博弈陷入“新冷战” – 均衡形态：全面对抗的长期均衡\ 在此场景中，中美经过短暂休战后矛盾再度激化，每一次冲突都扩大范围，直至双方基本断绝高科技往来、贸易大幅减少，形成两个相对独立的经济技术体系，军事上进入持续高戒备状态。正如Carnegie报告描绘的“新（偶有热战）的冷战”场景：安全危机触发双方把彼此视为生存性对手，意识形态和安全竞争凌驾一切carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。在这种格局下：

• 经贸博弈退居次要，成为总体战略对抗的一部分。关税等问题可能永远谈不拢，反而双方都实行近乎敌对的经贸政策（禁运、投资审查、制裁）。

• 均衡稳定性高：双方国内都完成了对长期对抗的动员，社会“习惯”了没有对方的世界，各自的联盟体系提供支持。任何一方单独妥协都会被内部视为投降而不可接受。此时博弈均衡由政治-军事逻辑决定，经济利益让位于安全利益。

• 风险：这种均衡虽然稳定，却存在高风险的吸引域——任何局部事件都可能因为缺少缓冲而滑向直接冲突（如冷战时期多次危机那样）。它也将严重冲击全球经济和多边体系，让世界进入新分裂时期【28†L133-142】。

• 路径2：有限缓和与竞争共存 – 均衡形态：部分合作的动态均衡\ 另一条路径是双方在几番摩擦后痛感代价，选择建立某种“竞合框架”。这类似于美苏在1970年代缓和时期达成的默契：虽然仍竞争，但在军控、贸易上有所协议，避免了更危险的对抗carnegieendowment.org。应用到中美，则可能出现：

• 签订新贸易协定：范围超越2020年第一阶段协议，可能涉及逐步降低关税、规则竞争中建立仲裁机制等，使贸易战有“停战线”。

• 科技隔阂设置护栏：如定义哪些技术可以合作、哪些严格竞争，并避免极端措施（比如对民用科技保持一定交流）。

• 地缘热点管理：双方军方高层保持沟通，防止误判，类似冷战后的危险热线机制。这降低擦枪走火概率，也为经贸关系提供稳定外围环境。

• 均衡特征：这种均衡并非“友好合作”，而更像**“竞争性共存”。双方依然视对方为主要竞争者，但承认对方利益**，不试图彻底削弱对方，而是寻求长期共存之道。其稳定性中等，取决于领导人意志和制度化程度。如有强有力且持续的对话渠道、协议执行监督，则可较长时间维持；但如果遇到大的国际事件或国内政治变化，关系可能再次滑向对抗。

• 路径3：卷入热战或严重冲突 – 均衡破裂，激烈对抗后再重组\ 不能排除最坏情况：均衡被打破引发失控冲突，例如因台湾问题或南海冲突中美发生直接军事对抗。那将不是博弈均衡内的演化，而是均衡本身的崩溃，后果难以估量。大战之后新的均衡可能在战胜-战败格局上重建，但这已超出本文经贸博弈讨论范围。不过需要指出，持续敌对的均衡往往孕育热战危险carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org；避免这一结局本身是各方应努力的目标。

当前迹象显示，路径1的新冷战倾向在一些领域浮现（高度脱钩、阵营对立）moneycontrol.commoneycontrol.com；路径2的有限缓和尚未看到明确契机，但并非没有基础（双方经贸仍有巨大共同利益carnegieendowment.org，金融市场、人才流动也难以一夕切断）。未来数年内，一些重要节点（如美国换届、中国经济策略调整等）将是走向路径2或滑向路径1的关键转折。

八、结论

综上分析，2025年中美谈判达成的有限妥协可被解读为中美经贸博弈中的一个短期策略均衡。双方通过各让一步，实现了一次互利但脆弱的平衡。然而，从博弈论视角看，这一均衡并非纳什稳态：双方均有诱因或压力偏离当前策略，且均衡缺乏强有力的自我稳定机制。事实上，正如有分析指出的，此次协议“几乎没有长期解决纷争的迹象”reuters.com，更像是为缓解彼此立即痛苦而达成的临时停战csis.org。

未来的走向很大程度上取决于双方如何应对结构性矛盾：是任由矛盾积累，将博弈推向类似冷战的长期对峙均衡，抑或痛定思痛，在竞争中寻求新的合作共处均衡。冷战的历史教训表明，即使长期对峙均衡一度稳定，最终也会因为不可持续的内耗而瓦解。因此，对中美双方而言，短期策略博弈或许有利于各自战术利益，但从长期理性出发，探索比冷战式对峙更稳定且成本更低的均衡（例如有限竞争+合作领域并存的模式）才符合两国和全球利益。

当然，博弈均衡并非静止，而是会随环境演化。技术进步、经济变化、国际局势、新冠疫情等冲击都可能改变 payoff 结构，从而改变博弈的均衡点。在不确定性加剧的时代，中美关系的博弈更需要双方拿出智慧，避免陷入“囚徒困境”式的次优均衡。正如经典博弈论所示，当重复博弈次数足够长、参与者足够理性时，合作并非不可实现。希望中美双方在经历几轮高强度博弈后，能够识别出新的合作机会窗口，打破目前这一“不稳定均衡”，避免新的冷战长期对峙成为不可逆的自我实现预言carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。

参考文献：

• Reuters报道，2025年6月11日，《特朗普称中国将供应稀土，美国将允许中国学生入学》reuters.comreuters.com。

• Axios报道，2025年6月4日，《中美贸易争端中的稀土问题》axios.comaxios.com。

• Medium平台分析文章，Laurel W. (2023)《关税博弈的博弈论解析》medium.commedium.com。

• Kyodo News共同社，2025年6月10日，《中美高层贸易会谈聚焦稀土》（英文版）english.kyodonews.netenglish.kyodonews.net。

• CSIS评论，Philip Luck, 2025年5月13日, 《理解中美贸易战的暂时缓和》csis.orgcsis.org。

• Moneycontrol新闻，2025年4月22日, 《美中贸易战加深，走向冷战式对峙》moneycontrol.commoneycontrol.com。

• Carnegie Endowment报告, Evan Medeiros等, 2024年10月, 《2030年代的中美关系：共存情景》carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。

• Carnegie Endowment报告, Stephen Walt等, 2024年10月, 对中美关系的理论视角分析carnegieendowment.orgcarnegieendowment.org。

• Kornai理论参考：Michael Ellman, 1990, 《The Disequilibrium School and the Shortage Economy》摘要pubs.aeaweb.org（说明体制性短缺状态的自我维持）。

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

via me

I had a completely different newsletter partially written earlier tonight about whether or not "this cycle is different" when this nagging thought entered my head. So I'm going to write about this and maybe I'll write about the dynamics of this cycle compared to past cycles tomorrow.

A couple of headlines shot across my desk earlier tonight in relation to the potential escalation of kinetic warfare in the Middle East. Apparently the U.S. Embassy in Iraq was sent a warning and evacuation procedures were initiated. Not too long after, the world was made aware that the United States and Israel are contemplating an attack on Iran due to the "fact" that Iran may be close to producing nuclear weapins. The initial monkey brain reaction that I had to these two headlines was, "Oh shit, here we go again. We're going to do something stupid." My second reaction was, "Oh shit, here we go again, I've seen these two exact headlines many times over the years and they've proven to be lackluster if you're a doomer or blood thirsty war monger." Nothing ever happens.

As I venture into my mid-30s and reflect on a life filled with these types of headlines and my personal reactions to these headlines, I'm finally becoming attuned to the fact that the monkey brain reactions aren't very productive at the end of the day. Who knows exactly what's going to happen in Iraq or Iran and whether or not kinetic warfare escalates and materializes from here? Even though I'm a "blue-blooded taxpaying American citizen" who is passively and unwillingly contributing to the war machine and the media industrial complex, there's really nothing I can do about it.

The only thing I can do is focus on what is in front of me. What I have control of. And attempt to leverage what I have control of to make my life and the life of my family as good as humanly possible. Ignoring the external and turning inward often produces incredible results. Instead of worrying about what the media wants you to believe at any given point in time, you simply look away from your computer screen, survey the physical space which you're operating in and determine what you have, what you need and how you can get what you need. This is a much more productive way to spend your time.

This is what I want to touch on right now. There's never been a better time in human history to be productive despite what the algorithm on X or the mainstream media will lead you to believe. Things aren't as great as they could be, but they're also not as bad as you're being led to believe. We live in the Digital Age and the Digital Age provides incredible resources that you can leverage to make YOUR life better.

Social media allows you to create a platform without spending any money. AI allows you to build tools that are beneficial to yourself and others with very little money. And bitcoin exists to provide you with the best form of money that you can save in with the knowledge that your relative ownership of the overall supply isn't going to change. No matter what happens in the external world.

If you can combine these three things to make your life better and - by extension - potentially make the lives of many others better, you're going to be well off in the long run. Combining these three things isn't going to result in immediate gratification, but if you put forth a concerted effort, spend the time, have some semblance of patience, and stick with it, I truly believe that you will benefit massively in the long run. Without trying to sound like a blowhard, I truly believe that this is why I feel relatively calm (despite my monkey brain reactions to the headlines of the day) at this current point in time.

We've entered the era of insane leaps in productivity and digital hard money that cannot be corrupted. The biggest mistake you can make in your life right now is overlooking the confluence of these two things. With an internet connection, an idea, some savvy, and hard work you can materially change your life. Create something that levels up your knowledge, that enables you to get a good job in the real world, or to create a company of your own. Bring your talents to the market, exchange them for money, and then funnel that money into bitcoin (if you're not being paid in it already). We may be at the beginning of a transition from the high velocity trash economy to the high leverage agency economy run on sound money and applied creativity.

These concepts are what you should be focusing most of your time and attention to today and in the years ahead. Don't get distracted by the algorithm, the 30-second video clips, the headlines filled with doom, and the topics of the 24 hour news cycle. I'll admit, I often succumb to them myself. But, as I get older and develop a form of pattern recognition that can only be attained by being on this planet for a certain period of time, it is becoming very clear that those things are not worth your attention.

Living by the heuristic that "nothing ever happens" is a pretty safe bet. Funnily enough, it's incredibly ironic that you're led to believe that something is happening every single day, and yet nothing ever happens. By getting believing that something happens every day you are taking your attention away from doing things that happen to make your life better.

Tune out the noise. Put on the blinders. Take advantage of the incredible opportunities that lie before you. If enough of you - and many others who do not read this newsletter - do this, I truly believe we'll wake up to find that the world we live in is a much better place.

Nothing ever happens, so make something happen.

Intelligence Officials Are Quietly Becoming Bitcoin Believers

Ken Egan, former CIA Deputy Chief of Cyber Operations, revealed a surprising truth on TFTC: the intelligence community harbors numerous Bitcoin advocates. Egan explained that intelligence professionals uniquely understand how governments weaponize financial systems through sanctions and account freezing. Having wielded these tools themselves, they recognize the need for personal financial sovereignty. He shared compelling anecdotes of discovering colleagues with "We are all Satoshi" stickers and a European chief of station paying for dinner with a BlockFi card to earn Bitcoin rewards.

"I think there are a lot of Bitcoiners, not just at CIA, but across the whole national security establishment... they're in it for the exact same reasons everybody else is." - Ken Egan

The Canadian trucker protests served as a pivotal moment, Egan noted. Watching Western governments freeze citizens' bank accounts for political dissent struck a nerve among intelligence professionals who previously viewed financial weaponization as a tool reserved for foreign adversaries. This awakening has created unlikely allies within institutions many Bitcoiners distrust.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Bitcoin's national security implications, privacy tech prosecutions, and legislative priorities.

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Headlines of the Day

Stripe Buys Crypto Wallet Privy After Bridge Deal - via X

Trump Calls CPI Data "Great" Urges Full Point Fed Cut - via X

Bitcoin Hashrate Reaches New All-Time High - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

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Bitcoin’s Next Parabolic Move: Could Liquidity Lead the Way?

Is bitcoin’s next parabolic move starting? Global liquidity and business cycle indicators suggest it may be.

Read the latest report from Unchained and TechDev, analyzing how global M2 liquidity and the copper/gold ratio—two historically reliable macro indicators—are aligning once again to signal that a new bitcoin bull market may soon begin.

Download the report here

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Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

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Final thought...

Life is good.

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Download our free browser extension, Opportunity Cost: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ start thinking in SATS today.

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@ a5ee4475:2ca75401

[EM ATUALIZAÇÃO]

vacina #saude #politica #manipulacao #mundial #genocidio #pandemia #conspiracao

"Aqueles que não conseguem lembrar o passado estão condenados a repeti-lo." - George Satayana

Este artigo reúne algumas menções e evidências mais antigas que vim registrando durante alguns anos em relação a Covid-19, vacinas obrigatórias e a ação de agências de governo, fundações, políticos, mídia tradicional, celebridades, influenciadores, cientistas, redes sociais e laboratórios, em envolvimento com genocídio e restrições de liberdades em escala mundial causado por decisões em várias esferas relativas ao covid e as vacinas obrigatórias em geral.

Porém, alguns links podem não estar mais disponíveis, foram que ainda faltam ser registradas muitas informações já divulgadas nos últimos anos e que muitos não tiveram contato pela escassez de meios para a obtenção dessas informações de forma organizada.

Portanto, o presente artigo ainda passará por atualizações de conteúdo e formatação. Logo, se possível, ajudem sugerindo complementos ou alterações, ou com doações.

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Noções iniciais:

• O termo 'Coronavírus' (COVID) é na verdade um nome genérico para vários vírus de gripes já comuns, dado para o tipo corona (com uma "coroa", 'espetos' ao redor dele), o Sars-Cov-2 (que passou a ser chamado erroneamente só de Covid), é só um deles.
• SARS-CoV-2 é que é nome do vírus. Ele que causa a doença Covid-19;
• O coronavírus SARS-CoV-2 é o segundo tipo de SARS-CoV documentado, o primeiro ocorreu entre 2002 e 2003, se originando também da China e também dito como tendo origem animal;
• SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) - Síndrome Respiratória Aguda Grave (SRAG) é a uma doença respiratória viral, relatada ser de origem zoonótica (animal), causada pelos coronavírus SARS-CoV (2002) e SARS-CoV-2 (2019), ambos de origem chinesa;

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1. Vacinas Obrigatórias em Geral

23/01/2025 - [Pesquisa] Vacinas nos EUA causando autismo em crianças https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/vaccination-and-neurodevelopmental-disorders-a-study-of-nine-year-old-children-enrolled-in-medicaid/

• O CDC admite que 98 milhões de pessoas receberam o vírus do câncer através da vacina da Poliomielite https://medicinanews.com.br/frente/frente_1/o-cdc-admite-que-98-milhoes-de-pessoas-receberam-o-virus-do-cancer-atraves-da-vacina-poliomielite/

"O CDC (Os Centros de Controle e Prevenção de Doenças dos Estados Unidos) removeu rapidamente uma página do seu site, que estava em cache no Google, como você pode ver logo abaixo, admitindo que mais de 98 milhões de americanos receberam uma ou mais doses de vacina contra pólio dentro de 8 período entre 1955 e 1963, quando uma proporção da vacina foi contaminada com um poliomavírus causador de câncer chamado SV40."

Fonte original da imagem: https://preventdisease.com/images13/CDC_Polio.png [indisponível] - A imagem foi trocada por outra de menor qualidade e em outro link, mas eu já tinha a imagem original salva.

Imagem arquivada em: https://web.archive.org/web/20201203231640/

27/02/2021 - Por que o Japão demorou para vacinar, mesmo com Olimpíada se aproximando https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/2021/02/27/por-que-o-japao-demorou-para-vacinar-mesmo-com-olimpiada-se-aproximando

"Desconfiança da população japonesa em relação a vacinas, ligada a casos ocorridos no passado, está entre razões que atrasaram imunização no país.

A resistência à vacina do Japão remonta à década de 1970, quando duas crianças morreram dentro de 24 horas após receberem a vacina combinada contra difteria, tétano e coqueluche (coqueluche). A vacina foi temporariamente suspensa, mas a confiança já havia sido abalada. Por vários anos, as taxas de vacinação infantil caíram, levando a um aumento nos casos de tosse convulsa.

No final dos anos 1980, houve outro susto com a introdução da vacina tripla contra sarampo, caxumba e rubéola produzida no Japão. As primeiras versões do imunizante foram associadas à meningite asséptica, ou inchaço das membranas ao redor do cérebro e da medula espinhal. O problema foi rastreado até o componente caxumba da vacina tripla, o que levou a uma ação judicial e a indenização por danos pesados.

O Instituto Nacional de Ciências da Saúde interrompeu a dose combinada em 1993 e a substituiu por vacinas individuais. Após o escândalo, Shibuya disse que o governo japonês se tornou "ciente dos riscos" e seu programa nacional de vacinação tornou-se voluntário.

O Dr. Yuho Horikoshi, especialista em doenças infecciosas, diz que os processos levaram a uma "lacuna de vacinação", em que nenhuma vacina foi aprovada no Japão por cerca de 15 anos.

Mais recentemente, em 2013, o Japão adicionou a vacina contra o papilomavírus humano (HPV) ao calendário nacional para proteger as meninas contra o vírus sexualmente transmissível, que é conhecido por causar câncer cervical. No entanto, vídeos de meninas supostamente sofrendo de reações adversas começaram a circular no YouTube, levando o governo a retirá-los da programação nacional."

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2. PRIMEIRAS OCORRÊNCIAS PREDITIVAS AO COVID-19

2002 - Síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SARS) Brenda L. Tesini (setembro de 2018). Síndrome respiratória aguda grave (SARS) [indisponível]. Manual Merck. Consultado em 23 de janeiro de 2020, citado no Wikipedia

SARS - Wikipédia: "A SARS [doença do vírus SARS-CoV] foi detectada pela primeira vez no fim de 2002 na China. Entre 2002 e 2003, um surto da doença resultou em mais de 8 000 casos e cerca de 800 mortes em todo o mundo."

2010 - Fundação Rockfeller, Lockstep. https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/Annual-Report-2010-1.pdf

Neste PDF da fundação Rockfeller, em seu próprio site, a fundação deixou claro o seu envolvimento em casos de ‘contenção’ de pandemias juntamente com a USAID (agência americana com nome ambíguo, como formalmente ‘United States Agency for International Development’, mas soando como ‘US Socorre’, mas sendo um braço do governo democrata que financiava interferências políticas diretas em vários países, como em intervenções no Brasil ), inclusive em relacionadas ao SARS, o mesmo sintoma dos coronavírus Sars-Cov e Sars-Cov-2 (o vírus propagado em 2019) e que causa o COVID-19.

Segundo eles:

“Integração entre Regiões e Países

A Fundação Rockefeler investiu US$ 22 milhões em sua Iniciativa de Redes de Vigilância de Doenças para ajudar a conter a disseminação de doenças infecciosas e pandemias, fortalecendo os sistemas nacionais, regionais e globais de vigilância e resposta a doenças. Dois programas-chave da Rockefeler — a Rede de Vigilância de Doenças da Bacia do Mekong e a Rede Integrada de Vigilância de Doenças da África Oriental — conectaram e capacitaram profissionais de saúde, epidemiologistas e autoridades de saúde pública em toda a região, levando a um aumento de seis vezes nos locais de vigilância de doenças transfronteiriças somente nos últimos três anos. Em 2010, a Rockefeler expandiu a bem-sucedida campanha transdisciplinar One Health, que a USAID e o Banco Asiático de Desenvolvimento adotaram como modelos. One Health refere-se à integração da ciência médica e veterinária para combater essas novas variedades de doenças zoonóticas que se movem e sofrem mutações rapidamente de animais para humanos. Essas colaborações criaram e fortaleceram uma rede regional crítica de saúde pública, enquanto as lições aprendidas foram exportadas entre disciplinas e países. Além de fortalecer os laços globais em saúde pública, a Rockefeler ajudou a elevar o nível de especialização e treinamento em campo. O Programa de Treinamento em Epidemiologia de Campo coloca graduados nos mais altos escalões do governo no Laos e no Vietnã, enquanto as bolsas da Rockefeler transformaram as ferramentas disponíveis para os médicos, permitindo-lhes utilizar o poder da internet para se comunicar e monitorar eventos, compreender contextos locais e analisar novos problemas. Finalmente, estamos aplicando ferramentas do século XXI para combater os desafios de saúde do século XXI.”

Julho de 2012 - Revista Mundo Estranho - Epidemias Citado em: https://super.abril.com.br/especiais/epidemia-o-risco-invisivel/

Página do site ME salva em Imagem no Voidcat

Houve uma ‘coincidência’, a revista Mundo Estranho em julho de 2012, entrevistou o até então doutorando em virologia, Átila Iamarino (do canal Nerdologia no Youtube - O mesmo cientista que fez diversas propagandas das vacinas no Brasil), para descrever um possível cenário de propagação de uma epidemia viral, a revista descreve com grande precisão os eventos de 2020, mas apontando o oposto da China, em que, na realidade, sua economia cresceu vertiginosamente.

Segundo eles:

“ 1 – A Ásia é o ponto de partida. Após várias mutações, um novo vírus surge hospedado em morcegos. As fezes que eles soltam no ar infectam guaxinins. Dos mercados da China, esses animais são levados vivos para serem abatidos em restaurantes. Estressados, eles arranham e mordem os cozinheiros, espalhando o vírus.

2 – O vírus adquire a capacidade de ser transmitido de homem para homem por via aérea – forma mais fácil de contágio. Além disso, o contágio se dá antes mesmo de o enfermo apresentar os sintomas. Assim, em média, o doente infecta cinco pessoas antes de ter febre, vômito, diarreia, desidratação e falta de ar.

3 – O governo chinês envia uma comissão para avaliar a doença misteriosa que acomete alguns vilarejos. A equipe volta sem resultados e não considera o surto alarmante até que três pesquisadores adoecem e um deles morre. A China não informa a Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) para não demonstrar fragilidade.

4 – Os sintomas são comuns e a doença só chama a atenção quando muita gente começa a morrer na mesma região. Ainda assim, demora para que médicos e enfermeiros percebam a ineficiência de antibióticos na cura – o que exclui a maioria das bactérias como agente causador. Testes com vírus comuns também dão negativo.

5 – O governo isola comunidades em que há focos da doença. Ninguém entra nas cidades e nenhum doente pode sair. Mas, como a misteriosa enfermidade demora quatro dias para mostrar seus sintomas, muitos doentes saem dos vilarejos sem saber que estão infectados, alastrando a epidemia.

6 – Doentes viajam de avião para grandes cidades, como Hong Kong. O fervilhante centro comercial, que atrai gente do mundo todo, é um polo de contágio e disseminação. Sem imaginar o risco que correm, pessoas são contaminadas e, ao voltar para seu local de origem, carregam o vírus para todos os continentes.

7 – Com a doença já fora de controle, começa uma corrida entre laboratórios e cientistas de grandes universidades para descobrir o agente causador. Mesmo com o vírus isolado, as vacinas demoram para ser feitas em larga escala, tornando impossível o atendimento à demanda mundial.

8 – Os países se isolam, mantendo esquemas de quarentena. Aeroportos são fechados e o turismo mundial cai a quase zero. A China sofre as piores consequências, com o fluxo de empresários para Hong Kong suspenso – gerando prejuízos de bilhões de dólares – e com o boicote a produtos alimentícios vindos da Ásia.

9 – Além dos 10% de casos letais, os milhões de doentes precisam de atendimento médico. Enquanto hospitais e cemitérios estão lotados, escolas, indústrias e comércio ficam paralisados por falta de profissionais. O transporte público também para e os trabalhadores que podem passam a trabalhar em casa.

10 – Nas nações pobres, quase 20% da população morre – e outros milhões são vitimados mesmo em países ricos. Parte dessa mortalidade ocorre por causa da doença, mas outro fator determinante é a crise financeira global. A produção de alimentos cai por falta de mão de obra.

Fontes: A História e Suas Epidemias e Pandemias – A Humanidade em Risco, de Stefan Cunha Ujvari; Pragas e Epidemias – Histórias de Doenças Infecciosas, de Antonio Carlos de Castro Toledo Jr. Consultoria: Stefan Ujvari Cunha, infectologista do Hospital Alemão Oswaldo Cruz; Paolo Zanotto, professor de virologia do Instituto de Ciências Biológicas (ICB) da USP; Átila Iamarino, doutorando em HIV-1 no ICB da USP. “

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3. PRIMEIROS INDÍCIOS

10/2019 - Evento 201 - Durante os Jogos Militares Internacionais na China https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

Promovido por: - Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation - John Hopkins Institute - Fórum econômico mundial

"O evento simula a liberação de um coronavírus novo do tipo zoonótico transmitido por morcegos para porcos e por fim para humanos. Eventualmente ele se torna muito transmissível entre humanos levando a uma pandemia severa. O vírus é muito parecido com o vírus da SARS, mas se transmite muito mais facilmente entre pessoas devido a sintomas muito mais leves destas."

Também mencionado por: Jornal Estadão

Sobre o "Movimento antivacina"

05/12/2017 - Movimento antivacina: como surgiu e quais consequências ele pode trazer? https://www.uol.com.br/universa/noticias/redacao/2017/12/05/o-que-o-movimento-antivacina-pode-causar.htm?cmpid=copiaecola

23/03/2019 - "Instagram bloqueia hashtags e conteúdo antivacinação" https://canaltech.com.br/redes-sociais/instagram-bloqueia-hashtags-e-conteudo-antivacinacao-135411/

23/05/2021 - Novos dados sobre pesquisadores de Wuhan aumentam debate sobre origens da Covid https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/novos-dados-sobre-pesquisadores-de-wuhan-aumentam-debate-sobre-origens-da-covid/

"A China relatou à Organização Mundial da Saúde que o primeiro paciente com sintomas semelhantes aos de Covid-19 foi registrado em Wuhan em 8 de dezembro de 2019"

01/02/2020 - O que aconteceu desde que o novo coronavírus foi descoberto na China https://exame.com/ciencia/o-que-aconteceu-desde-que-o-novo-coronavirus-foi-descoberto-na-china/

"O primeiro alerta foi recebido pela Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) em 31 de dezembro de 2019"

15/09/2020 - YouTube diz que vai remover vídeos com mentiras sobre vacina contra COVID-19 https://gizmodo.uol.com.br/youtube-remover-videos-mentiras-vacina-covid-19/

"O YouTube anunciou na quarta-feira (14) que estenderá as regras atuais sobre mentiras, propaganda e teorias da conspiração sobre a pandemia do coronavírus para incluir desinformação sobre as vacinas contra a doença.

De acordo com a Reuters, a gigante do vídeo diz que agora vai proibir conteúdos sobre vacinas contra o coronavírus que contradizem “o consenso de especialistas das autoridades de saúde locais ou da OMS”, como afirmações falsas de que a vacina é um pretexto para colocar chips de rastreamento nas pessoas ou que irá matar ou esterilizar quem tomar."

*07/01/2021 - YouTube vai punir canais que promovem mentiras sobre eleições – incluindo os de Trump https://olhardigital.com.br/2021/01/07/noticias/youtube-vai-punir-canais-que-promovem-mentiras-sobre-eleicoes-incluindo-os-de-trump/

"O YouTube anunciou que vai punir canais que promovem mentiras sobre as eleições, removendo sumariamente qualquer vídeo que contenha desinformação e, ao mesmo tempo, advertindo com um “strike” o canal que o veicular. A medida já está valendo e a primeira “vítima” é ninguém menos que o ex-presidente americano, Donald Trump.

A medida não é exatamente nova, mas foi novamente comunicada e reforçada pelo YouTube na quarta-feira (6), após os eventos de invasão do Capitólio, em Washington, onde o presidente eleito Joe Biden participava da cerimônia que confirmava a sua vitória nas eleições de novembro de 2020. A ocasião ficou marcada pela tentativa de invasão de correligionários de Trump, que entraram no edifício em oposição à nomeação do novo presidente. Uma mulher acabou sendo morta pela polícia que protegia o local.

O ex-presidente Donald Trump teve vídeos banidos de seu canal no YouTube após os eventos de ontem (6) no capitólio."

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4. FIGURAS CENTRAIS

Bill Gates

• Bill Gates diz 'não' a abrir patentes de vacinas https://www.frontliner.com.br/bill-gates-diz-nao-a-abrir-patentes-de-vacinas/

"Bill Gates, um dos homens mais ricos do mundo, cuja fundação tem participação na farmacêutica alemã CureVac, produtora de vacina mRNA para prevenção de covid-19, disse não acreditar que a propriedade intelectual tenha algo a ver com o longo esforço global para controlar a pandemia."

João Doria - Governo de São Paulo

26/07/2017 - João Dória vai a China conhecer drones para ampliar segurança eletrônica na capital paulista https://jc.ne10.uol.com.br/blogs/jamildo/2017/07/26/joao-doria-vai-china-conhecer-drones-para-ampliar-seguranca-eletronica-na-capital-paulista/

02/08/2019 - Governo de SP fará Missão China para ampliar cooperação e atrair investimentos https://www.saopaulo.sp.gov.br/spnoticias/governo-de-sao-paulo-detalha-objetivos-da-missao-china/

20/11/2019 - Doria se encontra com chineses das gigantes CREC e CRCC e oferece concessões de rodovia, metrô e ferrovia https://diariodotransporte.com.br/2019/11/20/doria-se-encontra-com-chineses-das-gigantes-crec-e-crcc-e-oferece-concessoes-de-rodovia-metro-e-ferrovia/

25/01/2020 - "Chineses serão agressivos" nas privatizações em SP até 2022, afirma Dória https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/jamil-chade/2020/01/25/entrevista-joao-doria-privatizacoes-sao-paulo-china.htm

O governador de São Paulo, João Doria, afirma que vai acelerar os programas de desestatização no estado em 2020 e acredita que concessões e vendas poderão permitir uma arrecadação de pelo menos R$ 40 bilhões. Nesse processo, o governador avalia que a China deve atuar de forma agressiva e que aprofundará sua posição de maior parceira comercial do estado, se distanciando de americanos e argentinos.

29/06/2020 - Doria estabelece multa para quem estiver sem máscara na rua em SP https://veja.abril.com.br/saude/doria-estabelece-multa-para-quem-estiver-sem-mascara-na-rua/

24/12/2020 - Doria é flagrado sem máscara e fazendo compras em Miami https://pleno.news/brasil/politica-nacional/doria-e-flagrado-sem-mascara-e-fazendo-compras-em-miami.html

"Foto do governador de São Paulo sem o item de proteção viralizou nas redes"

07/06/2021 - Doria é criticado na internet por tomar sol sem máscara em hotel no Rio https://vejasp.abril.com.br/cidades/doria-e-criticado-na-internet-por-tomar-sol-sem-mascara-em-hotel-no-rio/

30/09/2020 - Governo de SP assina contrato com Sinovac e prevê vacina para dezembro https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/saude/noticia/2020-09/governo-de-sp-assina-contrato-com-sinovac-e-preve-vacina-para-dezembro

O governador de São Paulo, João Doria, e o vice-presidente da laboratório chinês Sinovac, Weining Meng, assinaram hoje (30), um contrato que prevê o fornecimento de 46 milhões de doses da vacina CoronaVac para o governo paulista até dezembro deste ano.

O contrato também prevê a transferência tecnológica da vacina da Sinovac para o Instituto Butantan, o que significa que, o instituto brasileiro poderá começar a fabricar doses dessa vacina contra o novo coronavírus. O valor do contrato, segundo o governador João Doria é de US$ 90 milhões.

20/10/2020 - Coronavac terá mais de 90% de eficácia, afirmam integrantes do governo paulista https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2020/12/20/coronavac-tera-mais-de-90-de-eficacia-afirmam-integrantes-do-governo

24/10/2020 - Não esperamos 90% de eficácia da Coronavac’, diz secretário de saúde de SP https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2020/12/24/nao-esperamos-90-de-eficacia-da-coronavac-diz-secretario-de-saude-de-sp

07/01/2021 - Vacina do Butantan: eficácia é de 78% em casos leves e 100% em graves https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2021/01/07/vacina-do-butantan-eficacia-e-de-78-em-casos-leves-e-100-em-graves

09/01/2021 - Não é hora de sermos tão cientistas como estamos sendo agora https://g1.globo.com/sp/sao-paulo/video/nao-e-hora-de-sermos-tao-cientistas-como-estamos-sendo-agora-diz-secretario-de-saude-de-sp-9166405.ghtml

10/01/2021 - Dados da Coronavac relatados à Anvisa não estão claros, diz médico https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2021/01/10/dados-da-coronavac-relatados-a-anvisa-nao-estao-claros-diz-medico

"O diretor do Laboratório de Imunologia do Incor, Jorge Kalil, reforçou que faltaram informações sobre a Coronavac nos dados divulgados à Anvisa"

12/01/2021 - New Brazil data shows disappointing 50,4% efficacy for China’s Coronavac vaccine [Novos dados do Brasil mostram eficácia decepcionante de 50,4% para a vacina CoronaVac da China] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-coronavirus/new-brazil-data-shows-disappointing-504-efficacy-for-chinas-coronavac-vaccine-idUSKBN29H2CE

13/01/2021 - Eficácia da Coronavac: 50,38%, 78% ou 100%? https://blogs.oglobo.globo.com/lauro-jardim/post/5038-78-ou-100.html

“De acordo com interlocutores que participaram tanto do anúncio de ontem como da semana passada, quem pressionou para que os dados de 78% e 100% fossem liberados foi João Dória.”

07/05/2021 - Covid-19: Doria toma primeira dose da vacina CoronaVac https://veja.abril.com.br/saude/covid-19-doria-toma-primeira-dose-da-vacina-coronavac/

04/06/2021 - Doria é vacinado com a segunda dose da CoronaVac em São Paulo https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2021/06/04/doria-e-vacinado-com-a-segunda-dose-da-coronavac-em-sao-paulo.htm

15/07/2021 - Doria testa positivo para a Covid-19 pela 2ª vez https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/politica/2021/07/4937833-doria-testa-positivo-para-covid-19-pela-segunda-vez.html

"Governador de São Paulo já havia sido diagnosticado com a doença no ano passado. Ele diz que, apesar da infecção, se sente bem, o que atribui ao fato de ter sido vacinado com duas doses da Coronavac"

06/08/2021 - CPI recebe investigação contra Doria por compra de máscara sem licitação https://www.conexaopoder.com.br/nacional/cpi-recebe-investigacao-contra-doria-por-compra-de-mascara-sem-licitacao/150827

"Empresa teria usado o nome de Alexandre Frota para vender máscaras ao governo de SP. Doria nega informação"

Renan Filho

(filho do Renan Calheiros)

25/07/2019 - Governador Renan Filho vai à China em busca de investimentos para o estado https://www.tnh1.com.br/videos/vid/governador-renan-filho-vai-a-china-em-busca-de-investimentos-para-o-estado/

20/03/2020 - Governadores do NE consultam China e pedem material para tratar covid-19 https://noticias.uol.com.br/saude/ultimas-noticias/redacao/2020/03/20/governadores-do-ne-consultam-china-e-pedem-material-para-tratar-covid-19.htm

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5. Narrativas, restrições e proibições

17/12/2020 - STF decide que vacina contra a covid pode ser obrigatória, mas não forçada https://noticias.uol.com.br/saude/ultimas-noticias/redacao/2020/12/17/stf-julga-vacinacao-obrigatoria.htm?cmpid=copiaecola

"O STF (Supremo Tribunal Federal) decidiu, em julgamento hoje, que o Estado pode determinar a obrigatoriedade da vacinação contra a covid-19. Porém fica proibido o uso da força para exigir a vacinação, ainda que possam ser aplicadas restrições a direitos de quem recusar a imunização.

Dez ministros foram favoráveis a obrigatoriedade da vacinação, que poderá ser determinada pelo governo federal, estados ou municípios. As penalidades a quem não cumprir a obrigação deverão ser definidas em lei."

27/07/2021 - Saiba que países estão adotando 'passaporte da vacina' para suspender restrições https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/2021/07/27/saiba-que-paises-estao-adotando-passaporte-da-vacina-para-suspender-restricoes

" - Israel - Uniao Europeia - Áustria - Dinamarca - Eslovênia - França - Grécia - Irlanda - Itália - Letônia - Lituânia - Luxemburgo - Holanda - Portugal - Japão - Coreia do sul"

18/06/2021 - O que é o passaporte da vacina que Bolsonaro quer vetar? https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2021/06/18/uol-explica-o-que-e-o-passaporte-da-vacina-que-opoe-bolsonaro-e-damares.htm

"O Brasil poderá ter um certificado de imunização futuramente. Aprovado no Senado na semana passada, o "passaporte da vacina", como é chamado, prevê identificar pessoas vacinadas para que entrem em locais públicos ou privados com possíveis restrições."

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6. Vacinas

Alegações iniciais

• CoronaVac, Oxford e Pfizer: veja diferenças entre as vacinas contra covid noticias.uol.com.br/saude/ultimas-noticias/redacao/2021/05/11/diferencas-vacinas-covid-brasil.htm

" - CoronaVac (Butantan/Sinovac - Chinesa) Com virus inativo 50,38% de eficácia 2 doses

• Covishield - 'AstraZeneca' (Fiocruz/Astrazenica/Oxford - Britânica) Com virus não replicante 67% de eficácia 2 doses

• ComiRNAty - 'Pfizer' (Pfizer - Americana / BioNTech - Alemã) Com RNA mensageiro 96% de eficácia 2 doses"

Riscos diretos

15/06/2021 - Trombose após vacinação com AstraZeneca: Quais os sintomas e como se deve atuar? https://www.istoedinheiro.com.br/trombose-apos-vacinacao-com-astrazeneca-quais-os-sintomas-e-como-se-deve-atuar/

"Agências europeias estão reticentes com a vacina da AstraZeneca. Ela chegou a ser desaconselhada a pessoas com idade inferior a 60 anos, e um alto funcionário da Agência Europeia de Medicamentos declarou que era melhor deixar de administrar a vacina deste laboratório em qualquer idade quando há alternativas disponíveis, devido aos relatos de trombose após a primeira dose, apesar de raros."

11/05/2021 - CoronaVac, Oxford e Pfizer: veja diferenças entre as vacinas contra covid https://noticias.uol.com.br/saude/ultimas-noticias/redacao/2021/05/11/diferencas-vacinas-covid-brasil.htm

"Na terça-feira (12), o Ministério da Saúde determinou a suspensão da aplicação da vacina de Oxford/AstraZeneca para gestantes e puérperas com comorbidades. A decisão segue recomendação da Anvisa, que apura a morte de uma grávida de 35 anos que tomou o imunizante e teve um AVC (acidente vascular cerebral)."

30/07/2021 - Pfizer representa o mesmo risco de trombose que a Astrazeneca, aponta levantamento https://panoramafarmaceutico.com.br/pfizer-representa-o-mesmo-risco-de-trombose-que-a-astrazeneca-aponta-levantamento/

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7. CRIMES

Crimes da Pfizer

18/11/2020 Não listado no google - Os Crimes documentados da produtora de vacinas de Covid - Pfizer [INGLÊS] https://www.dmlawfirm.com/crimes-of-covid-vaccine-maker-pfizer-well-documented/

"A velocidade com que a vacina Covid da Pfizer foi produzida, a ausência de estudos em animais, testes de controle randomizados e outros testes e procedimentos padrão usuais para um novo medicamento são, no mínimo, preocupantes. Além disso, todos os fabricantes de vacinas Covid receberam imunidade legal para quaisquer ferimentos ou mortes que possam causar. Se essas vacinas são tão seguras quanto promovidas, por que seus fabricantes precisam de imunidade geral?"

"A Pfizer, uma empresa farmacêutica que parece ter ganhado na loteria para produzir a primeira vacina Covid-19, está atualmente lutando contra centenas de ações judiciais sobre o Zantac, um popular medicamento contra azia. Os processos da Zantac afirmam que a droga popular pode estar contaminada com uma substância cancerígena chamada N-nitrosodimetilamina (NDMA). Os processos Zantac são em aberto e em andamento, já que a farmacêutica está lutando contra eles; mas a Pfizer, sabemos, cometeu vários crimes ou transgressões pelos quais foi punida nos últimos anos. As falhas da empresa estão bem documentadas e vale a pena revisá-las neste momento crítico da história da humanidade, enquanto todos nós buscamos respostas."

A Pfizer recebeu a maior multa da história dos Estados Unidos como parte de um acordo judicial de US $ 2,3 bilhões com promotores federais por promover medicamentos erroneamente (Bextra, Celebrex) e pagar propinas a médicos complacentes. A Pfizer se confessou culpada de falsificar a marca do analgésico Bextra, promovendo o medicamento para usos para os quais não foi aprovado.

Na década de 1990, a Pfizer estava envolvida em válvulas cardíacas defeituosas que causaram a morte de mais de 100 pessoas. A Pfizer enganou deliberadamente os reguladores sobre os perigos. A empresa concordou em pagar US $ 10,75 milhões para acertar as acusações do departamento de justiça por enganar reguladores.

A Pfizer pagou mais de US $ 60 milhões para resolver um processo sobre o Rezulin, um medicamento para diabetes que causou a morte de pacientes de insuficiência hepática aguda.

No Reino Unido, a Pfizer foi multada em quase € 90 milhões por sobrecarregar o NHS, o Serviço Nacional de Saúde. A Pfizer cobrou do contribuinte um adicional de € 48 milhões por ano, pelo que deveria custar € 2 milhões por ano.

A Pfizer concordou em pagar US $ 430 milhões em 2004 para resolver acusações criminais de que havia subornado médicos para prescrever seu medicamento para epilepsia Neurontin para indicações para as quais não foi aprovado. Em 2011, um júri concluiu que a Pfizer cometeu fraude em sua comercialização do medicamento Neurontin. A Pfizer concordou em pagar $ 142,1 milhões para liquidar as despesas.

A Pfizer revelou que pagou quase 4.500 médicos e outros profissionais médicos cerca de US $ 20 milhões por falar em nome da Pfizer.

Em 2012, a Comissão de Valores Mobiliários dos Estados Unidos - anunciou que havia chegado a um acordo de US $ 45 milhões com a Pfizer para resolver acusações de que suas subsidiárias haviam subornado médicos e outros profissionais de saúde no exterior para aumentar as vendas no exterior.

A Pfizer foi processada em um tribunal federal dos Estados Unidos por usar crianças nigerianas como cobaias humanas, sem o consentimento dos pais das crianças. A Pfizer pagou US $ 75 milhões para entrar em acordo no tribunal nigeriano pelo uso de um antibiótico experimental, o Trovan, nas crianças. A empresa pagou um valor adicional não divulgado nos Estados Unidos para liquidar as despesas aqui. A Pfizer violou o direito internacional, incluindo a Convenção de Nuremberg estabelecida após a Segunda Guerra Mundial, devido aos experimentos nazistas em prisioneiros relutantes.

Em meio a críticas generalizadas de roubar os países pobres em busca de drogas, a Pfizer prometeu dar US $ 50 milhões para um medicamento para a AIDS para a África do Sul. Mais tarde, no entanto, a Pfizer falhou em honrar essa promessa.

• Pfizer contract leaked! [Contrato da Pfizer vazado] http://sanjeev.sabhlokcity.com/Misc/LEXO-KONTRATEN-E-PLOTE.pdf

Segundo o contrato "o produto não deve ser serializado":

"5.5 Reconhecimento do comprador.

O Comprador reconhece que a Vacina e os materiais relacionados à Vacina, e seus componentes e materiais constituintes estão sendo desenvolvidos rapidamente devido às circunstâncias de emergência da pandemia de COVID-19 e continuarão a ser estudados após o fornecimento da Vacina ao Comprador nos termos deste Contrato. O Comprador reconhece ainda que os efeitos de longo prazo e eficácia da Vacina não são atualmente conhecidos e que pode haver efeitos adversos da Vacina que não são atualmente conhecidos. Além disso, na medida do aplicável, o Comprador reconhece que o Produto não deve ser serializado."

Crimes da AstraZeneca

21/06/2003 - AstraZeneca se declara culpada no esquema de médico de câncer https://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/21/business/astrazeneca-pleads-guilty-in-cancer-medicine-scheme.html

"A AstraZeneca, a grande empresa farmacêutica, se declarou culpada hoje de uma acusação de crime de fraude no sistema de saúde e concordou em pagar $ 355 milhões para resolver as acusações criminais e civis de que se envolveu em um esquema nacional para comercializar ilegalmente um medicamento contra o câncer de próstata.

O governo disse que os funcionários da empresa deram incentivos financeiros ilegais a cerca de 400 médicos em todo o país para persuadi-los a prescrever o medicamento Zoladex. Esses incentivos incluíram milhares de amostras grátis de Zoladex [...]"

27/04/2010 - Farmacêutica gigante AstraZeneca pagará US $ 520 milhões pelo marketing de medicamentos off-label https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/pharmaceutical-giant-astrazeneca-pay-520-million-label-drug-marketing

"AstraZeneca LP e AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals LP vão pagar $ 520 milhões para resolver as alegações de que a AstraZeneca comercializou ilegalmente o medicamento antipsicótico Seroquel para usos não aprovados como seguros e eficazes pela Food and Drug Administration (FDA), os Departamentos de Justiça e Saúde e Serviços Humanos A Equipe de Ação de Fiscalização de Fraudes em Saúde (HEAT) anunciou hoje. Esses usos não aprovados também são conhecidos como usos "off-label" porque não estão incluídos no rótulo do medicamento aprovado pela FDA."

• List of largest pharmaceutical settlements [Lista dos maiores acordos farmaceuticos] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_pharmaceutical_settlements

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8. CIENTISTAS

• Máscara Provoca Insuficiência Respiratória E Contaminação Microbiana… [Canal deletado] https://youtube.com/watch?v=eHu-pydSvDI

Não lembro mais a quem pertencia, mas provavelmente era de um médico falando do assunto. Creio ter sido do Dr. Paulo Sato, por essa temática ter sido abordada por ele, mas ao abrir o site aparece somente:

"Este vídeo foi removido por violar as diretrizes da comunidade do YouTube"

Dr. Paulo Sato

• USAR ou NÃO USAR a CUECA do seu governador no rosto https://fb.watch/7NPP_7rS5S/ https://www.facebook.com/AdoniasSoaresBR/videos/1347904292291481/ Adonias Soares entrevista ao Dr. Paulo Sato sobre as máscaras, em que é simulado o efeito da respiração prolongada das máscaras no organismo com o uso de águas de torneira, natural, gaseificada (com gás carbônico) e antioxidante, em que a com gás carbônico (PH 4 - Ácido) representa o organismo humano, e na prática representa lesão corporal e iniciação de doenças.

Dr. Kary Mullis

(Criador do teste PCR)

• PCR nas palavras do seu inventor - Dr. Kary Mullis (legendado) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1O52uTygk8

"Qualquer um pode testar positivo para quase qualquer coisa com um teste de PCR, se você executá-lo por tempo suficiente… Com PCR, se voce fizer isso bem, você pode encontrar quase tudo em qualquer pessoa… Isso não te diz que você está doente."

• Kary Mullis DESTRUYE a Anthony Fauci lbry://@CapitalistChile#0/Kary-Mullis---Fauci#5

"Ele [...] não entende de medicina e não deveria estar onde está. A maioria dos que estão acima são só administrativos e não têm nem ideia do que ocorre aqui em baixo e essas pessoas tem uma agenda que não é a que gostaríamos que tivessem, dado que somos nós os que pagamos a eles para que cuidem da nossa saúde. Têm uma agenda pessoal."

Dra. Li-Meng Yan

• Dra. Li-Meng Yan: O vírus foi criado em laboratório com um objetivo: Causar dano. https://youtu.be/pSXp3CZnvOc

Dr. Joe Roseman

• Cientista Phd Dr Joe Roseman faz seríssimas advertencias sobre a picada https://youtu.be/0PIXVFqJ_h8

Dr. Robert Malone

• As vacinas podem estar causando ADE - Dr. Robert Malone https://odysee.com/@AkashaComunidad:f/Las_vacunas_pueden_estar_causando_ADE_magnificaci%C3%B3n_mediada_por:f lbry://@Información.#b/Drrm#9

Dr. Robert Malone, um dos três inventores da tecnologia de RNAm que se usa de forma farmacêutica. No vídeo fala sobre os efeitos de ADE (realce dependente de anticorpos) que estão ocorrendo com as vacinas. Nas palavras do Dr. Malone, já não é somente uma hipótese, mas baseada nos conhecimentos gerados nas provas e ensaios pré clínicos, com as vacinas contra o primeiro vírus da SARS.

Dr. Luc Montagnier

• Dr. Luc Montagnier, virologista, prêmio Nobel de medicina, um dos descobridores do vírus HIV, afirma: "a vacinação em massa está criando as novas variantes' (@medicospelavida , telegram)

CASOS DOCUMENTADOS

13/09/2021 - 13 de setembro de 2021 - Carta aberta ao Ministro da Saúde por Arlene Ferrari Graf, mãe de Bruno Oscar Graf https://telegra.ph/Carta-aberta-ao-Ministro-da-Sa%C3%BAde-09-13

Também em: Gazeta do Povo

O texto de uma mãe discorrendo sobre o filho dela, Bruno Oscar Graf, ter ANTI-HEPARINA PF4 AUTO-IMUNE e ter vindo a falecer por reação à vacina.

11/05/2021 - Rio notifica morte de grávida vacinada com imunizante Oxford https://www.terra.com.br/noticias/coronavirus/rio-notifica-morte-de-gravida-vacinada-com-imunizante-oxford,415b9b0c49169427ac2f90ae3765c057e9suy3qn.html

"Vítima não apresentava histórico de doença circulatória nem sofria de nenhuma doença viral; relação será investigada"

13/08/2021 - Cruzeiro com 4.336 pessoas tem 27 contaminados com Covid-19 em Belize https://paranaportal.uol.com.br/geral/cruzeiro-com-4-336-pessoas-tem-27-contaminados-com-covid-19-em-belize/amp/

"Segundo um comunicado do Conselho de Turismo de Belize emitido na quarta-feira (11), 26 contaminados são da tripulação e um é passageiro. A maioria é assintomática e os 27 estão vacinados."

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9. ALEGAÇÕES DIRETAS

09/2021 - Setembro de 2021 - BOMBA: Ex-membro do Partido Comunista da China revela que o primeiro surto da Covid foi “intencional” https://terrabrasilnoticias.com/2021/09/bomba-ex-membro-do-partido-comunista-da-china-revela-que-o-primeiro-surto-da-covid-foi-intencional/

01/03/2023 - 1 de Março de 2023 - O chefe do FBI, Christopher Wray, diz que vazamento de laboratório na China é muito provável https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64806903

26/12/2024 - 26 de Dezembro 2024 - FBI ‘não tem permissão para informar Biden’ sobre a teoria de vazamento de laboratório da Covid https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/fbi-not-allowed-to-brief-biden-on-covid-lab-leak-theory-8df9mr997

O FBI concluiu com "confiança moderada" que a COVID-19 pode ter sido criada em laboratório, com base em parte na análise genômica conduzida por cientistas do Centro Nacional de Inteligência Médica.

@ 20e7c953:3b8bcb21

21… That number means something. A reminder that limits create value - both in Bitcoin and in life.

Every June 21st, skaters around the world remind us that freedom is something you make yourself - one push at a time only constrained by your own limitations.

This year in Vientiane, we’re proud to support one of the few real skate spots in Laos. A place built and held together by skaters for skaters.

Expect around 50 locals - from young kids to older heads - showing up not just to skate, but to hold space for each other. No ego, no filters, just boards, fun and respect.

Bitcoiners have lots to learn from these communities on this regard. Go skate and you'll find out.

SnF

Laostr

Skateboardingisfun

Skate4Fun

@ c1a49d62:3ef55468

IoT chips serve as the foundational semiconductor components that enable connectivity, data processing, and communication in devices ranging from smart thermostats to industrial sensors. These microcontrollers, system-on-chips (SoCs), and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) offer low power consumption, compact form factors, and robust security features, making them essential for Internet of Things ecosystems. As industries pursue digital transformation, the need for high-performance IoT chips that can handle real-time analytics, edge computing, and seamless interoperability has surged. IoT Chips Market Advantages such as integrated wireless protocols (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, LoRaWAN), enhanced energy efficiency, and customizable silicon solutions address critical market challenges like device longevity and data integrity. Manufacturers leverage advanced process nodes and AI accelerators to deliver chips with superior throughput while minimizing thermal footprints. Continuous innovations in semiconductor design, coupled with growing market opportunities in smart cities, automotive telematics, and healthcare monitoring, underscore the strategic importance of these components. As enterprises seek to optimize operations and reduce costs through predictive maintenance and remote monitoring, demand for versatile IoT chipsets continues to rise. The IoT chips market is estimated to be valued at USD 620.36 Bn in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 1415.005 Bn by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.00% from 2025 to 2032.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Ik hou van de natuur en van verbinding maken\ Van diepgang en van mensen raken

Van creatief schrijven en programmeren\ Van speels bewegen en nieuwe dingen leren

Ik hou van leven en van dromen\ En van mensen zien\ Hun diepste wensen uit doen komen

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

Howdy stackers, this is the place to share your ~HealthAndFitness triumphs and challenges.

I was glad to hit my step goal today, since it's gloomy and rainy here. Once again, I ate too many cookies. Gotta stop being a cookie monster.

How'd you all do, today?

https://stacker.news/items/996659

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Look and see\ Look and see

You look like how you look at me

Look and see\ Look and see

The colorless through the color TV

Look and see\ Look and be

The unborn identity

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

The other day, I had the privilege of sitting down with one of my favorite living artists. Our conversation was so captivating that I felt compelled to share it. I’m leaving his name out for privacy.

Since our last meeting, I’d watched a documentary about his life, one he’d helped create. I told him how much I admired his openness in it. There’s something strange about knowing intimate details of someone’s life when they know so little about yours—it’s almost like I knew him too well for the kind of relationship we have.

He paused, then said quietly, with a shy grin, that watching the documentary made him realize how “odd and eccentric” he is. I laughed and told him he’s probably the sanest person I know. Because he’s lived fully, chasing love, passion, and purpose with hardly any regrets. He’s truly lived.

Today, I turn 44, and I’ll admit I’m a bit eccentric myself. I think I came into the world this way. I’ve made mistakes along the way, but I carry few regrets. Every misstep taught me something. And as I age, I’m not interested in blending in with the world—I’ll probably just lean further into my own brand of “weird.” I want to live life to the brim. The older I get, the more I see that the “normal” folks often seem less grounded than the eccentric artists who dare to live boldly. Life’s too short to just exist, actually live.

I’m not saying to be strange just for the sake of it. But I’ve seen what the crowd celebrates, and I’m not impressed. Forge your own path, even if it feels lonely or unpopular at times.

It’s easy to scroll through the news and feel discouraged. But actually, this is one of the most incredible times to be alive! I wake up every day grateful to be here, now. The future is bursting with possibility—I can feel it.

So, to my fellow weirdos on nostr: stay bold. Keep dreaming, keep pushing, no matter what’s trending. Stay wild enough to believe in a free internet for all. Freedom is radical—hold it tight. Live with the soul of an artist and the grit of a fighter. Thanks for inspiring me and so many others to keep hoping. Thank you all for making the last year of my life so special.

@ 0689c075:2936ee11

{"layout":{"backgroundImage":null,"canvasSize":{"width":850,"height":1100}},"pages":[{"id":"page_1","name":"Main Page","objects":[]}],"objects":[],"texts":[]}

@ 51bbb15e:b77a2290

Yeah, I’m sure everything in the file is legit. 👍 Let’s review the guard witness testimony…Oh wait, they weren’t at their posts despite 24/7 survellience instructions after another Epstein “suicide” attempt two weeks earlier. Well, at least the video of the suicide is in the file? Oh wait, a techical glitch. Damn those coincidences!

At this point, the Trump administration has zero credibility with me on anything related to the Epstein case and his clients. I still suspect the administration is using the Epstein files as leverage to keep a lot of RINOs in line, whereas they’d be sabotaging his agenda at every turn otherwise. However, I just don’t believe in ends-justify-the-means thinking. It’s led almost all of DC to toss out every bit of the values they might once have had.

@ c9badfea:610f861a

1. Install Sky Map (it's free and open source)
2. Launch the app and tap Accept, then tap OK
3. When asked to access the device's location, tap While Using The App
4. Tap somewhere on the screen to activate the menu, then tap ⁝ and select Settings
5. Disable Send Usage Statistics
6. Return to the main screen and enjoy stargazing!

ℹ️ Use the 🔍 icon in the upper toolbar to search for a specific celestial body, or tap the 👁️ icon to activate night mode

@ 5d4b6c8d:8a1c1ee3

I pretty much did worse across the board today.

How'd you do today, stackers?

https://stacker.news/items/1004030

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

This piece is the first in a series that will focus on things I think are a priority if your focus is similar to mine: building a strong family and safeguarding their future.

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Choosing the ideal place to raise a family is one of the most significant decisions you will ever make. For simplicity sake I will break down my thought process into key factors: strong property rights, the ability to grow your own food, access to fresh water, the freedom to own and train with guns, and a dependable community.

A Jurisdiction with Strong Property Rights

Strong property rights are essential and allow you to build on a solid foundation that is less likely to break underneath you. Regions with a history of limited government and clear legal protections for landowners are ideal. Personally I think the US is the single best option globally, but within the US there is a wide difference between which state you choose. Choose carefully and thoughtfully, think long term. Obviously if you are not American this is not a realistic option for you, there are other solid options available especially if your family has mobility. I understand many do not have this capability to easily move, consider that your first priority, making movement and jurisdiction choice possible in the first place.

Abundant Access to Fresh Water

Water is life. I cannot overstate the importance of living somewhere with reliable, clean, and abundant freshwater. Some regions face water scarcity or heavy regulations on usage, so prioritizing a place where water is plentiful and your rights to it are protected is critical. Ideally you should have well access so you are not tied to municipal water supplies. In times of crisis or chaos well water cannot be easily shutoff or disrupted. If you live in an area that is drought prone, you are one drought away from societal chaos. Not enough people appreciate this simple fact.

Grow Your Own Food

A location with fertile soil, a favorable climate, and enough space for a small homestead or at the very least a garden is key. In stable times, a small homestead provides good food and important education for your family. In times of chaos your family being able to grow and raise healthy food provides a level of self sufficiency that many others will lack. Look for areas with minimal restrictions, good weather, and a culture that supports local farming.

Guns

The ability to defend your family is fundamental. A location where you can legally and easily own guns is a must. Look for places with a strong gun culture and a political history of protecting those rights. Owning one or two guns is not enough and without proper training they will be a liability rather than a benefit. Get comfortable and proficient. Never stop improving your skills. If the time comes that you must use a gun to defend your family, the skills must be instinct. Practice. Practice. Practice.

A Strong Community You Can Depend On

No one thrives alone. A ride or die community that rallies together in tough times is invaluable. Seek out a place where people know their neighbors, share similar values, and are quick to lend a hand. Lead by example and become a good neighbor, people will naturally respond in kind. Small towns are ideal, if possible, but living outside of a major city can be a solid balance in terms of work opportunities and family security.

---

Let me know if you found this helpful. My plan is to break down how I think about these five key subjects in future posts.

@ 502ab02a:a2860397

เรื่องของซีเรียล ที่เรารู้กัน ความจริงมันก็ไม่ได้สวยหรูสามัคคีอะไรเท่าไรครับ เบื้องหลังผลประโยชน์ระดับโลก ส่วนมากมีความขัดแย้งรุนแรงเสมอๆ

Recap นิดนะครับ ย้อนกลับไปช่วงปี 1880s ที่เมืองเล็ก ๆ อย่าง Battle Creek มลรัฐมิชิแกน สหรัฐฯ ดร. John Harvey Kellogg เป็นผู้กำกับดูแล Battle Creek Sanitarium ซึ่งเปิดสอนเรื่องสุขภาพครบทุกด้าน ทั้งโภชนาการออกกำลังกาย ไปจนถึงการควบคุมราคะ โดยเฉพาะเรื่องอาหารเช้า เขาเชื่อว่ามื้อแรกของวันมันมีอำนาจควบคุมอารมณ์และจิตวิญญาณได้ ถ้าเริ่มต้นด้วยไข่ แฮม หรือเนื้อ มันจะพลิกเรือจิตใจให้ไหลเข้าสู่ตัณหา …ซึ่งไม่ใช่จุดประสงค์ชีวิตนักพรตชาว Adventist เลย

ปี 1894 ในห้องครัวของโรงพยาบาลแห่งนี้ ดร. John กับน้องชาย Will ทดลองทำข้าวธัญพืชอบสมุนไพร เมล็ดธัญพืชบดที่หล่นบนเตาแล้วกลายเป็นแผ่นกรอบ มีชื่อเรียกชั่วคราวว่า “Granose biscuits” หรือ “wheat flakes” ซึ่งเป็นจุดเริ่มต้นของอาหารเช้าที่เน้นสุขภาพ ไม่ใช่ความอร่อย

วันที่ 7 มีนาคม 1897 ดร. John ยืนกรานจัดแจก Corn Flakes ตามหลักการ “ไม่หวาน ไม่อิ่มมาก” ในแบบฉบับ ซีเรียลไม่ใส่น้ำตาล (sugarless cereal) ให้กับคนไข้ของเขาเป็นครั้งแรก ความหวังคือให้พลังย่อยและช่วยเรื่องลำไส้ เพื่อสุขภาพมากกว่าความหรรษาปลายลิ้น

แต่แน่นอนว่า สูตรชีวิตด้านอาหารแบบพระเขาไม่ง้อลิ้นชาวบ้าน อย่าพูดถึงยอดขายเลย! น้องชาย Will Keith Kellogg ซึ่งเป็นนักธุรกิจสายลุย มองเห็นว่ารสจืดแบบนี้ไม่เกิด เขาจึงแฝงแนวคิดว่า “ทำไงให้ซีเรียลอร่อยจนคนยอมจ่าย” และสุดท้ายก็เติมน้ำตาลเข้าไป ปรับหน้าแพ็กเกจ และใส่โฆษณาชวนเชื่อว่า “อาหารเช้าสำคัญที่สุดของวัน” จนคนเริ่มเชื่อ

จากความเข้าใจเรื่องบริษัทสตาร์ทอัพของยุคนั้น ระหว่าง 1897–1906 ความแตกแยกของแนวคิดพี่-น้องก็ชัดเจนขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ ดร. John ที่เชื่อเรื่อง purity ของอาหาร ไม่เห็นด้วยกับน้ำตาล กลับขัดแย้งกับ Will ที่มองว่า “นี่ล่ะโอกาสทองเชิงพาณิชย์” จนในปี 1906 Will ตัดสินใจแยกออกมาเปิดบริษัทใหม่ในชื่อ Battle Creek Toasted Corn Flake Company วันที่ 19 กุมภาพันธ์ 1906 โดยผลักดันซีเรียลหวาน มีน้ำตาล จนขายดีทะลุเป้า

ตอนนี้พี่น้องก็กลายมาเป็นศัตรูทางธุรกิจจนได้ Will ยึดชื่อ Kellogg ทำโฆษณาเต็มแรง ลงโฆษณาเสาไฟ times square ใหญ่สุดในตอนนั้น ดร. John ฟ้องศาลขอสิทธิ์ในชื่อ Kellogg คืน เพราะเขาคิดว่าควรเป็นของผู้เริ่มต้นก่อน สุดท้าย Michigan Supreme Court ตัดสินให้ Will ชนะ ชัดเจนว่า “ใครทำการตลาด เขาก็เป็นเจ้าของชื่อ”

หลังจากนั้น ซีเรียลใส่น้ำตาลแบบกล่อง (boxed cereal) ก็เริ่มกระจายไปทั่วโลกในช่วงปี 1909–1920 โดย mass‑production ออกวันละหลักหมื่นกล่อง และโฆษณาไประดับครอบครัว วัยเด็ก และแม่บ้าน วาทกรรมคือ "ให้ลูกแข็งแรง" "อาหารเช้าแห่งอารยธรรม" ที่สำคัญคือ “ทำง่าย กินง่าย”

พอถึงปี 1907 โรงงานเกิดไฟไหม้ แต่กลับสร้างใหม่ในเวลา 6 เดือน แสดงให้เห็นถึงพลังของธุรกิจซีเรียลกล่องอย่างแท้จริง หลังจากนั้นในปี 1922 บริษัทก็เปลี่ยนชื่อเป็น Kellogg Company และโตเต็มที่ในช่วง 1920s–1930s นับเป็นเครื่องจักรของความเชื่อที่ว่า น้ำตาลในอาหารเช้าย่อมดีกว่าไขมันและเนื้อ แต่ในอีกมุม มันก็คือน้ำตาลอัดเม็ดเชิงการตลาดชุดแรกของโลก

ในภาพรวม หากมองจากสายตาประชาอเมริกันยุคต้น เคลล็อกพี่เป็นผู้ปฏิวัติโภชนาการสุทธิ เขาต้องการให้ซีเรียลเป็นอาหาร “ปราศจากสาปราคะ” ที่มุ่งเน้นสุขภาพ แต่ Will พาเรื่องนี้เข้าสู่วงการพาณิชย์ ขายง่าย รสหวาน และถูกเชื่อมกับแนวคิดว่าเด็กน้อยต้องกินอะไรเดี๋ยวนั้นเพื่อแข็งแรง กระทั่งพลังตลาดทำให้คนย้ายจากมื้อเช้าแบบหนัก ไปเป็นชามซีเรียลจิ้มกับนมในสไตล์ยุคใหม่ โดยไม่รู้เลยว่าหัวใจแท้จริงมันเริ่มตั้งแต่มุ่งปราบราคะและโมเดิร์นลุยตลาด

เมื่อดู timeline เต็มรูปแบบ เราจะเห็นว่า 1894: ดร. John ทดลอง Flaked wheat/raw Granose 1897: แจก Corn Flakes สูตรจืด sugarless จนเป็นกินกับนมเพื่อช่วยการย่อย (milk accompaniment)
1906: Will แยกบริษัท สร้างตลาดซีเรียลหวาน 1909: เปลี่ยนชื่อเป็น Kellogg Company 1922: บริษัทขยายสู่ตลาดโลกโดยสมบูรณ์

ทุกย่างก้าวมีหัวใจสำคัญคือการเปลี่ยนพฤติกรรมผู้คนจาก “กินอาหารจริง” เป็น “กินอาหารกล่อง” จากไข่ เบคอน สตูว์ มาเป็นชามซีเรียลจิ้มกับนมที่ใส่น้ำตาลจัด ทั้งที่แท้จริงแล้วเป้าหมายแรกคือ “สงบกิเลส” แต่กลับจบที่ “กระตุ้นยอดขาย”

คุณลองจินตนาการถึงคนอเมริกันก่อนซีเรียล ตื่นเช้ามาเจอจานไข่ดาว เบคอน หรือแม้แต่ข้าวใส่จานพร้อมผัก ยิ่งทำงานหนักเสริมด้วยแผนยุทธศาสตร์ชีวิต พอซีเรียลมา “แค่เท กลืน กินง่าย” มันก็เข้าใจว่ามันคือความสะดวกและอนาคตของโภชนาการ ที่ถูกโปรโมตว่าดีต่อสุขภาพ ทั้ง ๆ ที่มันควรถูกตั้งคำถามในเรื่องน้ำตาลอยู่ไม่น้อย

วันนี้เรารู้แล้วว่า ซีเรียลกล่องใส่น้ำตาลคือผลิตภัณฑ์แห่งยุคตลาด เมื่อย้อนรอยดู มันไม่ใช่แค่เค้าว่าอร่อยหรือดี แต่คือการปั้นภาพว่า “นี่คือสิ่งที่คนยุคใหม่ควรกิน” โดยมีบริษัทและรัฐหนุนหลังให้มันกลายเป็นสิ่งที่เข้าใจว่า ‘ปกติ’ ทั้งที่ความจริงมัน ‘ผิดธรรมชาติ’ ตั้งแต่ต้นน้ำ #pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr

@ 6be5cc06:5259daf0

Introdução

O princípio do sola scriptura, pedra angular da teologia protestante desde a Reforma do século XVI, estabelece que apenas a Escritura constitui a autoridade final e suprema em questões de fé e prática cristã. Este princípio, formulado inicialmente por Martinho Lutero e sistematizado pelos reformadores subsequentes, pretende oferecer um fundamento epistemológico sólido para a teologia, livre das supostas corrupções da tradição eclesiástica.

Contudo, uma análise rigorosa revela que o sola scriptura incorre em contradições lógicas fundamentais que comprometem sua viabilidade como sistema epistemológico coerente. Este artigo examina essas contradições através de três perspectivas complementares: filosófica, exegética e histórica.

A Contradição Performativa Fundamental

O Problema da Autorreferência

O sola scriptura enfrenta um dilema epistemológico insuperável: afirma que apenas a Escritura possui autoridade final em matéria de fé, mas essa própria regra não é explicitamente ensinada na Escritura. Trata-se de uma contradição performativa clássica, onde o enunciado viola suas próprias condições de possibilidade.

Esta situação configura uma falácia de petitio principii (círculo vicioso), pois exige que se aceite uma doutrina que não pode ser sustentada pelas premissas do próprio sistema. Para estabelecer o sola scriptura, seria necessário recorrer a uma autoridade externa à Escritura – precisamente aquilo que o princípio pretende rejeitar.

Fundacionalismo Mal Estruturado

Do ponto de vista epistemológico, o sola scriptura apresenta-se como um fundacionalismo defeituoso. Pretende funcionar como axioma supremo e auto-evidente, mas falha ao não fornecer a base textual que sua própria metodologia exige. Um verdadeiro fundacionalismo escriturístico deveria ser capaz de demonstrar sua validade através de uma prova explícita nas próprias Escrituras.

O Testemunho Contrário das Escrituras

Limitações do Registro Escrito

A própria Escritura reconhece as limitações do registro textual. João 21:25 declara explicitamente: "Jesus fez também muitas outras coisas. Se cada uma delas fosse escrita, penso que nem mesmo no mundo inteiro haveria espaço suficiente para os livros que seriam escritos."

Este versículo é particularmente problemático para o sola scriptura, pois reconhece que nem todos os ensinamentos de Cristo foram preservados por escrito. Como pode a Escritura ser suficiente se ela própria admite sua incompletude?

A Valorização da Tradição Oral

Paulo, em 2 Tessalonicenses 2:15, oferece uma instrução que contradiz frontalmente o sola scriptura: "Assim, pois, irmãos, ficai firmes e conservai os ensinamentos que de nós aprendestes, seja por palavras, seja por carta nossa."

O apóstolo valoriza inequivocamente tanto a tradição oral ("por palavras") quanto a escrita ("por carta"), estabelecendo um modelo de autoridade dual que o protestantismo posterior rejeitaria.

A Necessidade de Autoridade Interpretativa

A narrativa do eunuco etíope em Atos 8:30-31 demonstra a inadequação da Escritura isolada como autoridade final. Quando Filipe pergunta se o eunuco entende o que lê, a resposta é reveladora: "Como poderei entender, se alguém não me ensinar?"

Este episódio ilustra que a mera posse do texto bíblico não garante compreensão adequada. É necessária uma autoridade interpretativa externa – no caso, representada por Filipe, que age com autoridade apostólica.

A Complexidade Hermenêutica

Pedro, em sua segunda epístola (3:16-17), reconhece a dificuldade interpretativa inerente às Escrituras: "Suas cartas contêm algumas coisas difíceis de entender, as quais os ignorantes e instáveis torcem, como também o fazem com as demais Escrituras, para a própria destruição deles."

Esta passagem não apenas reconhece a complexidade hermenêutica dos textos sagrados, mas também alerta sobre os perigos da interpretação inadequada. Implicitamente, sugere a necessidade de uma autoridade interpretativa confiável para evitar distorções doutrinárias.

O Paradoxo Histórico da Canonização

A Dependência da Tradição Eclesiástica

Um dos argumentos mais devastadores contra o sola scriptura emerge da própria história da formação do cânon bíblico. Os concílios de Hipona (393 d.C.) e Cartago (397 d.C.) foram responsáveis pela definição oficial do cânon das Escrituras tal como conhecemos hoje.

Este fato histórico cria um paradoxo insuperável: aceitar a Bíblia como autoridade única requer aceitar a autoridade da tradição eclesiástica que a definiu. O próprio cânon bíblico é produto da tradição apostólica e da deliberação conciliar, não de autodefinição escriturística.

A Circularidade da Autopistia

Tentativas protestantes de resolver este dilema através do conceito de "autopistia" – a suposta capacidade das Escrituras de se auto-autenticar – apenas aprofundam o problema circular. Como determinar que as Escrituras possuem esta propriedade sem recorrer a critérios externos? A própria doutrina da autopistia não é explicitamente ensinada na Escritura.

Implicações Teológicas e Epistemológicas

A Fragmentação Interpretativa

A história do protestantismo oferece evidência empírica das consequências práticas do sola scriptura. A multiplicação de denominações e interpretações divergentes sugere que o princípio, longe de fornecer clareza doutrinária, pode na verdade contribuir para a fragmentação teológica.

Se a Escritura fosse verdadeiramente suficiente e auto-interpretativa, seria razoável esperar maior convergência hermenêutica entre aqueles que aderem ao sola scriptura. A realidade histórica sugere o contrário.

A Alternativa Católica e Ortodoxa

As tradições católica e ortodoxa, embora enfrentando suas próprias tensões epistemológicas, mantêm pelo menos coerência interna ao reconhecer explicitamente múltiplas fontes complementares de autoridade: Escritura, Tradição e Magistério (no caso católico) ou Escritura e Tradição (no caso ortodoxo).

Estas posições evitam a contradição performativa do sola scriptura ao não reivindicar que sua própria metodologia epistemológica seja derivada exclusivamente da Escritura.

Conclusão

A análise crítica do sola scriptura revela contradições estruturais que comprometem fundamentalmente sua viabilidade como princípio epistemológico. O princípio incorre em contradição performativa ao estabelecer uma regra que não pode ser derivada de suas próprias premissas, configura um fundacionalismo mal estruturado ao carecer de base textual explícita, e enfrenta o testemunho contrário da própria Escritura, que reconhece suas limitações e a necessidade de autoridades interpretativas externas.

O paradoxo histórico da canonização – onde o próprio cânon bíblico depende da autoridade tradicional que o sola scriptura pretende rejeitar – representa talvez o golpe mais decisivo contra o princípio protestante.

Isso não implica necessariamente a falsidade do protestantismo como sistema teológico, mas sugere que seus fundamentos epistemológicos requerem reformulação substancial. Uma teologia protestante intelectualmente honesta precisaria reconhecer as limitações do sola scriptura e desenvolver uma epistemologia mais nuançada que leve em conta a complexidade das fontes de autoridade religiosa.

A busca pela verdade teológica, independentemente de compromissos confessionais, exige o reconhecimento rigoroso das limitações e contradições inerentes aos nossos sistemas epistemológicos. No caso do sola scriptura, essa honestidade intelectual revela um princípio que, por mais central que seja para a identidade protestante, não pode sustentar o peso epistemológico que tradicionalmente lhe foi atribuído.

@ 9ca447d2:fbf5a36d

Neutron, Asia’s leading Bitcoin Lightning infrastructure company, announced the upcoming launch of Neutron Lend, a non-custodial, bitcoin-backed lending product designed for individuals and businesses who want access to liquidity without selling their bitcoin.

The service is currently open for waitlist sign-ups, with public access expected by end of June 2025.

As Bitcoin adoption accelerates, many holders are looking for secure ways to borrow against their bitcoin while maintaining control of their assets. Neutron Lend addresses this need with a multi-signature custody model, competitive interest rates, and a clear, transparent loan structure.

Key Features of Neutron Lend

• Borrow $10,000 to $1,000,000 USDT
• Non-custodial 3-key multi-sig (User, Neutron, Neutral Custodian)
• 50% Loan-to-Value (LTV)
• Principal + interest paid at loan maturity
• Introductory interest rates between 6% and 12% APR, based on tier
• Extension options available (with admin fee and adjusted rates)

Loans are fully collateralized with bitcoin and managed securely using a multi-sig wallet where users retain one of the keys. Neutron does not rehypothecate collateral, and no party can move the funds unilaterally.

“As Bitcoin continues to redefine the future of finance, I’m proud to introduce Neutron Lend a product built for those who believe in the long-term value of their BTC but need liquidity today,” said Albert Buu, CEO of Neutron. He added:

“Traditional finance simply doesn’t understand the needs of Bitcoiners: they force you to sell your most trusted asset or leave you without options.

“With Neutron Lend, our users can secure USDT loans against their BTC collateral at competitive rates, unlocking capital to invest, grow, and diversify without ever parting with their bitcoin.

We see a massively underserved market of HODLers and innovators who deserve access to flexible, transparent lending solutions. At Neutron, we’re here for you, empowering the Bitcoin community with the financial tools they’ve been waiting for.”

Now Open for Waitlist Registration

Neutron Lend is currently in waitlist phase. Early users will receive:

• Priority access to the platform at launch
• Limited-time introductory rates

The platform is expected to begin rolling out globally by end of June 2025.

Media Contact:
info@neutron.me

Learn More and Join the Waitlist: www.neutron.me/lend

About Neutron

Neutron is a Bitcoin Lightning infrastructure company based in Asia, offering scalable financial tools across the Bitcoin ecosystem. Its products include a Lightning-as-a-Service API (Neutron Economy), the consumer-facing Neutronpay app, and now Neutron Lend, bringing secure, flexible Bitcoin-backed lending to market.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Ik sta hier nu een poos\ Bevroren, machteloos

Ik wil graag iets veranderen\ Gewoon iets doen voor anderen

Maar het mag precies niet zijn\ En dat doet me veel pijn

Verlamd en vol van onbegrip\ Ik krijg er maar geen grip op

Op de wereld en de mensen\ Zij verpletteren mijn diepste wensen

Niemand die eens hoort\ Naar wat mij toch zo stoort

Ik kan nog eens proberen\ Om de wereld om te keren

Maar ik weet, het heeft geen zin\ Ik raak nooit binnen in

De ander\ Kom, verander

Misschien wordt het eens tijd\ Dat ik mezelf bevrijd

Van al die overmacht\ Die mij toch zo versmacht

Een stapje achteruit\ Adem in en adem uit

Ik doe mijn oogjes dicht\ En zie wie mij verplicht

Opzadelt met ambitie\ Van waar komt toch die missie

Al de pijn die ik niet aankan\ En van 't bestaan verban

Al 't bewijs voor mijn geloof\ Dat ik niet meer vliegen kan

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Een warme chocomelk\ Een knuffel en de moed te durven spreken\ Een leuk oprecht verhaal\ En een stap naar mijn verlangen

Deze dingen allemaal\ Maken me warm vanbinnen\ Ik hou van deze dingen\ Ze doen mijn hartje zingen

Ik wens iedereen zo'n warmte toe\ Ik wou dat ik het delen kon\ Maar het ziet er anders uit\ Voor jou dan hoe voor mij

Het enige wat ik echt kan zeggen\ Het enige dat ik zeker weet\ De kracht om warmte te creëren\ Ligt in je eigen handen

In je voeten, in je mond\ Het zit ook in je ogen\ En ook in je haar\ En zei ik al je mond\ En zelfs ook in je kont

Haha, ik ben maar wat aan 't lachen\ Dat is wat mij verlucht\ En ervoor zorgt dat wat ik zeg\ Van mij los kan komen\ En jou bereiken kan

Zo kan ik op beide oren slapen\ Dat ik deed dat wat ik kon\ Ik sprak dat wat belangrijk is\ Voor mij en liet het los

De wijde wereld in\ Voor al die horen wil en daar om geeft\ Om die warmte in hun hartje\ En daar misschien naar streeft

Ik wens je al 't succes toe in de wereld\ Want God weet, je bent het waard\ Het ligt nu in jouw handen\ Deze woorden, wat ik zeg\ Iets om over na te denken\ Tussen 't brood en het beleg

Leef gewoon je leven\ En zorg goed voor jezelf\ En als je 't graag wilt vinden\ Is het daar voor jou aan 't wachten\ Tot jij klaar bent met geloven\ In al dat anders klinkt

Ik kan je niets beloven\ Maar vertrouw op jouw instinct

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Warmte betekent zachtheid aan de grenzen\ Omringt door zachte mensen

Warmte betekent vrijheid\ Vrij om mij te tonen en te bewegen

Warmte betekent rust\ Om hier niet ver vandaan te hoeven zijn

Warmte betekent leven\ Iets waar ik vol van liefde mijn aandacht aan wil geven

Warmte betekent vriendschap\ Alle vriendschap die mijn hartje vult

Warmte betekent vol zijn\ Vol betekenis die mijn omgeving aan mij schenkt

Warmte betekent geven\ Geven om wat ik voor jou en jij voor mij\ Wij voor elkaar nu eigenlijk echt betekenen

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

There is something quietly rebellious about stacking sats. In a world obsessed with instant gratification, choosing to patiently accumulate Bitcoin, one sat at a time, feels like a middle finger to the hype machine. But to do it right, you have got to stay humble. Stack too hard with your head in the clouds, and you will trip over your own ego before the next halving even hits.

Small Wins

Stacking sats is not glamorous. Discipline. Stacking every day, week, or month, no matter the price, and letting time do the heavy lifting. Humility lives in that consistency. You are not trying to outsmart the market or prove you are the next "crypto" prophet. Just a regular person, betting on a system you believe in, one humble stack at a time. Folks get rekt chasing the highs. They ape into some shitcoin pump, shout about it online, then go silent when they inevitably get rekt. The ones who last? They stack. Just keep showing up. Consistency. Humility in action. Know the game is long, and you are not bigger than it.

Ego is Volatile

Bitcoin’s swings can mess with your head. One day you are up 20%, feeling like a genius and the next down 30%, questioning everything. Ego will have you panic selling at the bottom or over leveraging the top. Staying humble means patience, a true bitcoin zen. Do not try to "beat” Bitcoin. Ride it. Stack what you can afford, live your life, and let compounding work its magic.

Simplicity

There is a beauty in how stacking sats forces you to rethink value. A sat is worth less than a penny today, but every time you grab a few thousand, you plant a seed. It is not about flaunting wealth but rather building it, quietly, without fanfare. That mindset spills over. Cut out the noise: the overpriced coffee, fancy watches, the status games that drain your wallet. Humility is good for your soul and your stack. I have a buddy who has been stacking since 2015. Never talks about it unless you ask. Lives in a decent place, drives an old truck, and just keeps stacking. He is not chasing clout, he is chasing freedom. That is the vibe: less ego, more sats, all grounded in life.

The Big Picture

Stack those sats. Do it quietly, do it consistently, and do not let the green days puff you up or the red days break you down. Humility is the secret sauce, it keeps you grounded while the world spins wild. In a decade, when you look back and smile, it will not be because you shouted the loudest. It will be because you stayed the course, one sat at a time. \ \ Stay Humble and Stack Sats. 🫡

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Here’s a revised timeline of macro-level events from The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver, reimagined in a world where Bitcoin is adopted as a widely accepted form of money, altering the original narrative’s assumptions about currency collapse and economic control. In Shriver’s original story, the failure of Bitcoin is assumed amid the dominance of the bancor and the dollar’s collapse. Here, Bitcoin’s success reshapes the economic and societal trajectory, decentralizing power and challenging state-driven outcomes.

Part One: 2029–2032

• 2029 (Early Year)\ The United States faces economic strain as the dollar weakens against global shifts. However, Bitcoin, having gained traction emerges as a viable alternative. Unlike the original timeline, the bancor—a supranational currency backed by a coalition of nations—struggles to gain footing as Bitcoin’s decentralized adoption grows among individuals and businesses worldwide, undermining both the dollar and the bancor.

• 2029 (Mid-Year: The Great Renunciation)\ Treasury bonds lose value, and the government bans Bitcoin, labeling it a threat to sovereignty (mirroring the original bancor ban). However, a Bitcoin ban proves unenforceable—its decentralized nature thwarts confiscation efforts, unlike gold in the original story. Hyperinflation hits the dollar as the U.S. prints money, but Bitcoin’s fixed supply shields adopters from currency devaluation, creating a dual-economy split: dollar users suffer, while Bitcoin users thrive.

• 2029 (Late Year)\ Dollar-based inflation soars, emptying stores of goods priced in fiat currency. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transactions flourish in underground and online markets, stabilizing trade for those plugged into the bitcoin ecosystem. Traditional supply chains falter, but peer-to-peer Bitcoin networks enable local and international exchange, reducing scarcity for early adopters. The government’s gold confiscation fails to bolster the dollar, as Bitcoin’s rise renders gold less relevant.

• 2030–2031\ Crime spikes in dollar-dependent urban areas, but Bitcoin-friendly regions see less chaos, as digital wallets and smart contracts facilitate secure trade. The U.S. government doubles down on surveillance to crack down on bitcoin use. A cultural divide deepens: centralized authority weakens in Bitcoin-adopting communities, while dollar zones descend into lawlessness.

• 2032\ By this point, Bitcoin is de facto legal tender in parts of the U.S. and globally, especially in tech-savvy or libertarian-leaning regions. The federal government’s grip slips as tax collection in dollars plummets—Bitcoin’s traceability is low, and citizens evade fiat-based levies. Rural and urban Bitcoin hubs emerge, while the dollar economy remains fractured.

Time Jump: 2032–2047

• Over 15 years, Bitcoin solidifies as a global reserve currency, eroding centralized control. The U.S. government adapts, grudgingly integrating bitcoin into policy, though regional autonomy grows as Bitcoin empowers local economies.

Part Two: 2047

• 2047 (Early Year)\ The U.S. is a hybrid state: Bitcoin is legal tender alongside a diminished dollar. Taxes are lower, collected in BTC, reducing federal overreach. Bitcoin’s adoption has decentralized power nationwide. The bancor has faded, unable to compete with Bitcoin’s grassroots momentum.

• 2047 (Mid-Year)\ Travel and trade flow freely in Bitcoin zones, with no restrictive checkpoints. The dollar economy lingers in poorer areas, marked by decay, but Bitcoin’s dominance lifts overall prosperity, as its deflationary nature incentivizes saving and investment over consumption. Global supply chains rebound, powered by bitcoin enabled efficiency.

• 2047 (Late Year)\ The U.S. is a patchwork of semi-autonomous zones, united by Bitcoin’s universal acceptance rather than federal control. Resource scarcity persists due to past disruptions, but economic stability is higher than in Shriver’s original dystopia—Bitcoin’s success prevents the authoritarian slide, fostering a freer, if imperfect, society.

Key Differences

• Currency Dynamics: Bitcoin’s triumph prevents the bancor’s dominance and mitigates hyperinflation’s worst effects, offering a lifeline outside state control.
• Government Power: Centralized authority weakens as Bitcoin evades bans and taxation, shifting power to individuals and communities.
• Societal Outcome: Instead of a surveillance state, 2047 sees a decentralized, bitcoin driven world—less oppressive, though still stratified between Bitcoin haves and have-nots.

This reimagining assumes Bitcoin overcomes Shriver’s implied skepticism to become a robust, adopted currency by 2029, fundamentally altering the novel’s bleak trajectory.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Enlightenment is just\ You catching up with time

Enlightenment is just\ Successfully processing your current situation\ And what it has to do with your past

Enlightenment is just\ Separating what you believe from what you know\ What is real from what is true

Enlightenment is living\ According to what you believe\ Because that's what is real for you\ Yet knowing it might turn out\ To be not really true

Enlightenment is giving thanks\ For being proven wrong

For how else would we grow\ The things we're conscious of\ The things that're real for us\ And the things we really know

How else would we align those things\ With the truth of what is (t)here\ Beyond\ That which we are

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Nooit is mijn dans echter\ Dan net nadat het regende\ Want regen biedt een kans\ Om mijn gevoel te voelen

Zolang de regen spettert\ En ik mezelf graag zie\ Wordt er niets verplettert\ Ook al lijkt dat soms wel zo

Zodra de regen ophoudt\ En zich terugtrekt met de wolken\ Komt een nieuwe glans\ Voor het eerst mijn ogen binnen

Wat is het leven heerlijk\ Als ik eerlijk ben en voel\ Wat is het leven zacht\ En het brengt me naar mijn doel

Wat zou ik weten zonder regen\ Gewoon steeds evenveel\ Niet groeien is niet leven\ Daarom dans ik het liefst

Net na de echte regen

@ b83a28b7:35919450

This article was originally part of the sermon of Plebchain Radio Episode 111 (May 2, 2025) that nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqpqtvqc82mv8cezhax5r34n4muc2c4pgjz8kaye2smj032nngg52clq7fgefr and I did with nostr:nprofile1qythwumn8ghj7ct5d3shxtnwdaehgu3wd3skuep0qyt8wumn8ghj7ct4w35zumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcqyzx4h2fv3n9r6hrnjtcrjw43t0g0cmmrgvjmg525rc8hexkxc0kd2rhtk62 and nostr:nprofile1qyxhwumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmvqyg8wumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqpq4wxtsrj7g2jugh70pfkzjln43vgn4p7655pgky9j9w9d75u465pqahkzd0 of the nostr:nprofile1qythwumn8ghj7ct5d3shxtnwdaehgu3wd3skuep0qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcqyqwfvwrccp4j2xsuuvkwg0y6a20637t6f4cc5zzjkx030dkztt7t5hydajn

Listen to the full episode here:

<<https://fountain.fm/episode/Ln9Ej0zCZ5dEwfo8w2Ho>>

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Bitcoin has always been a narrative revolution disguised as code. White paper, cypherpunk lore, pizza‑day legends - every block is a paragraph in the world’s most relentless epic. But code alone rarely converts the skeptic; it’s the camp‑fire myth that slips past the prefrontal cortex and shakes hands with the limbic system. People don’t adopt protocols first - they fall in love with protagonists.

Early adopters heard the white‑paper hymn, but most folks need characters first: a pizza‑day dreamer; a mother in a small country, crushed by the cost of remittance; a Warsaw street vendor swapping złoty for sats. When their arcs land, the brain releases a neurochemical OP_RETURN which says, “I belong in this plot.” That’s the sly roundabout orange pill: conviction smuggled inside catharsis.

That’s why, from 22–25 May in Warsaw’s Kinoteka, the Bitcoin Film Fest is loading its reels with rebellion. Each documentary, drama, and animated rabbit‑hole is a stealth wallet, zipping conviction straight into the feels of anyone still clasped within the cold claw of fiat. You come for the plot, you leave checking block heights.

---

Here's the clip of the sermon from the episode:

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpwp69zm7fewjp0vkp306adnzt7249ytxhz7mq3w5yc629u6er9zsqqsy43fwz8es2wnn65rh0udc05tumdnx5xagvzd88ptncspmesdqhygcrvpf2

@ 73d8a0c3:c1853717

[**Nonfiction. Nothing here is imagined. This is real, observed, remembered — even if the world chose not to see it anymore.]

The men in the article didn’t just sit and wait to die. They fought, in the only ways they could. Some of them tied off an arm. Others went further — legs, even. Not because of injury. Not to stop bleeding. But to preserve blood flow to the gut. In severe volume depletion, the body starts shutting off the periphery — the limbs go cold, the skin dries, the vessels constrict. It’s a built-in triage system: protect the brain, the heart, maybe the kidneys.

And I think about that.

How far they had to fall to reach that kind of clarity. To look at their own arm, or leg, and say: you don’t matter anymore. Not because they’d given up — but because they hadn’t. Because they were still trying to survive, even if the cost was part of themselves.

It hits me hard. Not just as history, but as possibility.

Because I’m walking a version of that same path. Quietly. Strategically.

Keeping salt in. Saving movement. Holding heat.

I haven’t tied off a limb — not physically.

But I’ve let go of other things, parts of life, body, and identity, in order to preserve what’s left of the core.

Those are photos we missed. But I can still see them clearly. You can imagine how they might be something my index did not want on top of the pile.

But the gut? That’s where survival happens. That’s where salt is absorbed. Where calories are extracted. If the blood stops there, you don’t just collapse — you unravel. So they did what the body couldn’t do fast enough. They tied off what didn’t matter to buy time for what did. Primitive tourniquets, self-applied, not to stop blood from leaking, but to stop it from wandering. A final act of desperation, or clarity — depending on how far down the ladder you’ve already gone.**

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

My life is my way Home\ My death is my arrival

I can't wait to be Home\ And so I love life

I can't wait to be Home\ And so I want to live to the fullest

For there are no shortcuts

Many people die\ And never make it Home

They will have to wait\ For another chance to die

Another chance to live fully\ And die totally

I'm so thankful to be alive\ I'm on my way Home

I'm so thankful to be alive\ To have another chance to die

Every day I take a step\ In the direction of my death\ I do not postpone it

Every day I take a step\ In the direction of my truth\ I do not avoid it

It is who I am, always have been\ And always will be

It lies beyond that door\ That keeps everything in check

Where only can go through\ Which is forever true

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Bitcoin has always been rooted in freedom and resistance to authority. I get that many of you are conflicted about the US Government stacking but by design we cannot stop anyone from using bitcoin. Many have asked me for my thoughts on the matter, so let’s rip it.

Concern

One of the most glaring issues with the strategic bitcoin reserve is its foundation, built on stolen bitcoin. For those of us who value private property this is an obvious betrayal of our core principles. Rather than proof of work, the bitcoin that seeds this reserve has been taken by force. The US Government should return the bitcoin stolen from Bitfinex and the Silk Road.

Using stolen bitcoin for the reserve creates a perverse incentive. If governments see bitcoin as a valuable asset, they will ramp up efforts to confiscate more bitcoin. The precedent is a major concern, and I stand strongly against it, but it should be also noted that governments were already seizing coin before the reserve so this is not really a change in policy.

Ideally all seized bitcoin should be burned, by law. This would align incentives properly and make it less likely for the government to actively increase coin seizures. Due to the truly scarce properties of bitcoin, all burned bitcoin helps existing holders through increased purchasing power regardless. This change would be unlikely but those of us in policy circles should push for it regardless. It would be best case scenario for American bitcoiners and would create a strong foundation for the next century of American leadership.

Optimism

The entire point of bitcoin is that we can spend or save it without permission. That said, it is a massive benefit to not have one of the strongest governments in human history actively trying to ruin our lives.

Since the beginning, bitcoiners have faced horrible regulatory trends. KYC, surveillance, and legal cases have made using bitcoin and building bitcoin businesses incredibly difficult. It is incredibly important to note that over the past year that trend has reversed for the first time in a decade. A strategic bitcoin reserve is a key driver of this shift. By holding bitcoin, the strongest government in the world has signaled that it is not just a fringe technology but rather truly valuable, legitimate, and worth stacking.

This alignment of incentives changes everything. The US Government stacking proves bitcoin’s worth. The resulting purchasing power appreciation helps all of us who are holding coin and as bitcoin succeeds our government receives direct benefit. A beautiful positive feedback loop.

Realism

We are trending in the right direction. A strategic bitcoin reserve is a sign that the state sees bitcoin as an asset worth embracing rather than destroying. That said, there is a lot of work left to be done. We cannot be lulled into complacency, the time to push forward is now, and we cannot take our foot off the gas. We have a seat at the table for the first time ever. Let's make it worth it.

We must protect the right to free usage of bitcoin and other digital technologies. Freedom in the digital age must be taken and defended, through both technical and political avenues. Multiple privacy focused developers are facing long jail sentences for building tools that protect our freedom. These cases are not just legal battles. They are attacks on the soul of bitcoin. We need to rally behind them, fight for their freedom, and ensure the ethos of bitcoin survives this new era of government interest. The strategic reserve is a step in the right direction, but it is up to us to hold the line and shape the future.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Here's to the ones who can\ Feel their cause\ Surrender\ Change their ways\ But keep their fire\ And never give up

We will transform this world\ Restructuring\ One belief at a time

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Recently we have seen a wave of high profile X accounts hacked. These attacks have exposed the fragility of the status quo security model used by modern social media platforms like X. Many users have asked if nostr fixes this, so lets dive in. How do these types of attacks translate into the world of nostr apps? For clarity, I will use X’s security model as representative of most big tech social platforms and compare it to nostr.

The Status Quo

On X, you never have full control of your account. Ultimately to use it requires permission from the company. They can suspend your account or limit your distribution. Theoretically they can even post from your account at will. An X account is tied to an email and password. Users can also opt into two factor authentication, which adds an extra layer of protection, a login code generated by an app. In theory, this setup works well, but it places a heavy burden on users. You need to create a strong, unique password and safeguard it. You also need to ensure your email account and phone number remain secure, as attackers can exploit these to reset your credentials and take over your account. Even if you do everything responsibly, there is another weak link in X infrastructure itself. The platform’s infrastructure allows accounts to be reset through its backend. This could happen maliciously by an employee or through an external attacker who compromises X’s backend. When an account is compromised, the legitimate user often gets locked out, unable to post or regain control without contacting X’s support team. That process can be slow, frustrating, and sometimes fruitless if support denies the request or cannot verify your identity. Often times support will require users to provide identification info in order to regain access, which represents a privacy risk. The centralized nature of X means you are ultimately at the mercy of the company’s systems and staff.

Nostr Requires Responsibility

Nostr flips this model radically. Users do not need permission from a company to access their account, they can generate as many accounts as they want, and cannot be easily censored. The key tradeoff here is that users have to take complete responsibility for their security. Instead of relying on a username, password, and corporate servers, nostr uses a private key as the sole credential for your account. Users generate this key and it is their responsibility to keep it safe. As long as you have your key, you can post. If someone else gets it, they can post too. It is that simple. This design has strong implications. Unlike X, there is no backend reset option. If your key is compromised or lost, there is no customer support to call. In a compromise scenario, both you and the attacker can post from the account simultaneously. Neither can lock the other out, since nostr relays simply accept whatever is signed with a valid key.

The benefit? No reliance on proprietary corporate infrastructure.. The negative? Security rests entirely on how well you protect your key.

Future Nostr Security Improvements

For many users, nostr’s standard security model, storing a private key on a phone with an encrypted cloud backup, will likely be sufficient. It is simple and reasonably secure. That said, nostr’s strength lies in its flexibility as an open protocol. Users will be able to choose between a range of security models, balancing convenience and protection based on need.

One promising option is a web of trust model for key rotation. Imagine pre-selecting a group of trusted friends. If your account is compromised, these people could collectively sign an event announcing the compromise to the network and designate a new key as your legitimate one. Apps could handle this process seamlessly in the background, notifying followers of the switch without much user interaction. This could become a popular choice for average users, but it is not without tradeoffs. It requires trust in your chosen web of trust, which might not suit power users or large organizations. It also has the issue that some apps may not recognize the key rotation properly and followers might get confused about which account is “real.”

For those needing higher security, there is the option of multisig using FROST (Flexible Round-Optimized Schnorr Threshold). In this setup, multiple keys must sign off on every action, including posting and updating a profile. A hacker with just one key could not do anything. This is likely overkill for most users due to complexity and inconvenience, but it could be a game changer for large organizations, companies, and governments. Imagine the White House nostr account requiring signatures from multiple people before a post goes live, that would be much more secure than the status quo big tech model.

Another option are hardware signers, similar to bitcoin hardware wallets. Private keys are kept on secure, offline devices, separate from the internet connected phone or computer you use to broadcast events. This drastically reduces the risk of remote hacks, as private keys never touches the internet. It can be used in combination with multisig setups for extra protection. This setup is much less convenient and probably overkill for most but could be ideal for governments, companies, or other high profile accounts.

---

Nostr’s security model is not perfect but is robust and versatile. Ultimately users are in control and security is their responsibility. Apps will give users multiple options to choose from and users will choose what best fits their need.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

In much of the world, it is incredibly difficult to access U.S. dollars. Local currencies are often poorly managed and riddled with corruption. Billions of people demand a more reliable alternative. While the dollar has its own issues of corruption and mismanagement, it is widely regarded as superior to the fiat currencies it competes with globally. As a result, Tether has found massive success providing low cost, low friction access to dollars. Tether claims 400 million total users, is on track to add 200 million more this year, processes 8.1 million transactions daily, and facilitates $29 billion in daily transfers. Furthermore, their estimates suggest nearly 40% of users rely on it as a savings tool rather than just a transactional currency.

Tether’s rise has made the company a financial juggernaut. Last year alone, Tether raked in over $13 billion in profit, with a lean team of less than 100 employees. Their business model is elegantly simple: hold U.S. Treasuries and collect the interest. With over $113 billion in Treasuries, Tether has turned a straightforward concept into a profit machine.

Tether’s success has resulted in many competitors eager to claim a piece of the pie. This has triggered a massive venture capital grift cycle in USD tokens, with countless projects vying to dethrone Tether. Due to Tether’s entrenched network effect, these challengers face an uphill battle with little realistic chance of success. Most educated participants in the space likely recognize this reality but seem content to perpetuate the grift, hoping to cash out by dumping their equity positions on unsuspecting buyers before they realize the reality of the situation.

Historically, Tether’s greatest vulnerability has been U.S. government intervention. For over a decade, the company operated offshore with few allies in the U.S. establishment, making it a major target for regulatory action. That dynamic has shifted recently and Tether has seized the opportunity. By actively courting U.S. government support, Tether has fortified their position. This strategic move will likely cement their status as the dominant USD token for years to come.

While undeniably a great tool for the millions of users that rely on it, Tether is not without flaws. As a centralized, trusted third party, it holds the power to freeze or seize funds at its discretion. Corporate mismanagement or deliberate malpractice could also lead to massive losses at scale. In their goal of mitigating regulatory risk, Tether has deepened ties with law enforcement, mirroring some of the concerns of potential central bank digital currencies. In practice, Tether operates as a corporate CBDC alternative, collaborating with authorities to surveil and seize funds. The company proudly touts partnerships with leading surveillance firms and its own data reveals cooperation in over 1,000 law enforcement cases, with more than $2.5 billion in funds frozen.

---

The global demand for Tether is undeniable and the company’s profitability reflects its unrivaled success. Tether is owned and operated by bitcoiners and will likely continue to push forward strategic goals that help the movement as a whole. Recent efforts to mitigate the threat of U.S. government enforcement will likely solidify their network effect and stifle meaningful adoption of rival USD tokens or CBDCs. Yet, for all their achievements, Tether is simply a worse form of money than bitcoin. Tether requires trust in a centralized entity, while bitcoin can be saved or spent without permission. Furthermore, Tether is tied to the value of the US Dollar which is designed to lose purchasing power over time, while bitcoin, as a truly scarce asset, is designed to increase in purchasing power with adoption. As people awaken to the risks of Tether’s control, and the benefits bitcoin provides, bitcoin adoption will likely surpass it.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Hello Bumble\ You busy bee

You're going way\ Too fast for me

Going here and there\ You search for gold

Yet tumble straight\ Into what's old

Now I'm not here\ To make a gain

Nor to fix\ What's in disdain

Instead I'm just\ A humble bee

Who wants to get\ To know thee

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

We only see\ What we are

What we are not\ We cannot see

This is how we know\ Reality is happening within\ Our own being

And experience is a consequence\ Of who we believe to be

As long as we deny\ And don't want to see

All the ways\ We think to be

Reality will seem\ Outside of our grasp

And separate\ From our experience of life

Such is our power

Yet such power\ Could only be

Of that which holds\ The entirety

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

One of the most common criticisms leveled against nostr is the perceived lack of assurance when it comes to data storage. Critics argue that without a centralized authority guaranteeing that all data is preserved, important information will be lost. They also claim that running a relay will become prohibitively expensive. While there is truth to these concerns, they miss the mark. The genius of nostr lies in its flexibility, resilience, and the way it harnesses human incentives to ensure data availability in practice.

A nostr relay is simply a server that holds cryptographically verifiable signed data and makes it available to others. Relays are simple, flexible, open, and require no permission to run. Critics are right that operating a relay attempting to store all nostr data will be costly. What they miss is that most will not run all encompassing archive relays. Nostr does not rely on massive archive relays. Instead, anyone can run a relay and choose to store whatever subset of data they want. This keeps costs low and operations flexible, making relay operation accessible to all sorts of individuals and entities with varying use cases.

Critics are correct that there is no ironclad guarantee that every piece of data will always be available. Unlike bitcoin where data permanence is baked into the system at a steep cost, nostr does not promise that every random note or meme will be preserved forever. That said, in practice, any data perceived as valuable by someone will likely be stored and distributed by multiple entities. If something matters to someone, they will keep a signed copy.

Nostr is the Streisand Effect in protocol form. The Streisand effect is when an attempt to suppress information backfires, causing it to spread even further. With nostr, anyone can broadcast signed data, anyone can store it, and anyone can distribute it. Try to censor something important? Good luck. The moment it catches attention, it will be stored on relays across the globe, copied, and shared by those who find it worth keeping. Data deemed important will be replicated across servers by individuals acting in their own interest.

Nostr’s distributed nature ensures that the system does not rely on a single point of failure or a corporate overlord. Instead, it leans on the collective will of its users. The result is a network where costs stay manageable, participation is open to all, and valuable verifiable data is stored and distributed forever.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Muziek\ Jij harmonieus geluid

Een gevoel zo uniek\ Op geen andere manier geuit

Ik ben zo dankbaar voor de vrijheid die jij me schenkt\ Om gewoon even te zijn\ In dit dierbare moment

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Gelukkig zijn\ Is de waarde van mijn leven

Gewoon dankbaar te bestaan\ Geen mens heeft me ooit zo'n mooi cadeau gegeven

Dankbaar voor mijn sprankelen\ Mijn doen en voor mijn streven

Maar ook dat ik mag wankelen\ Mag vallen en mag beven

Want wat er ook gebeurt\ Het duurt steeds maar voor even

De wijsheid van mijn hart\ Voor alles is een reden

Het leven brengt mij deugd\ En soms brengt het me pijn

Maar nooit neemt het die vreugd\ De toelating om hier te zijn

De kans om iets te leren\ Te zien en om te groeien

Geeft mij kracht te accepteren\ Te omarmen en te bloeien

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

I am here too\ In the same space like you

In the same situation I'm in\ It's a matter of positioning

I cannot leave this place I'm in\ It was brought about\ By what's been happening

So please don't look at me\ For what I can or cannot do for you\ But look at what is happening for me\ And what is happening for you

Let's communicate\ Not orchestrate

Because there's something I wish to do\ And there's a place I wish to go to

And I'm sure that there is too\ In your heart a fire\ Known by only you

So let us listen, look and see\ For what's true for you\ And what's true for me

That we may act upon what's here\ In order for us both to take a step\ In the direction we wish to steer

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Kan jij zien, er is geen hemel\ Probeer het zelf, dan lukt het wel\ Geen hel staat ons te wachten\ Enkel sterren hangen ons boven het hoofd\ Kan jij zien, iedereen leeft voor dit moment

Kan jij zien, er zijn geen landen\ Het is niet moeilijk gewoon land te zien\ Niets om voor te moorden of te sterven\ Ook geloof wordt niet gezien\ Kan jij zien, het leven wordt geleefd door iedereen in vrede

Misschien zeg je, ik kijk niet naar jouw wereld\ Maar ik deel dit zicht met velen\ Moge ook jij zoals ons zien\ Wij kijken in de wereld en zien gewoon onszelf

Kan jij zien, er is geen bezit\ Ik vraag me af of jij dit kan\ Geen hebben of een nood\ In een samen-leving van mensen\ Kan jij zien, wij delen de wereld met elkaar

Misschien zeg je, ik kijk niet naar jouw wereld\ Maar ik deel dit zicht met velen\ Moge ook jij zoals ons zien\ Wij kijken in de wereld en zien gewoon onszelf

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Capitalism is the most effective system for scaling innovation. The pursuit of profit is an incredibly powerful human incentive. Most major improvements to human society and quality of life have resulted from this base incentive. Market competition often results in the best outcomes for all.

That said, some projects can never be monetized. They are open in nature and a business model would centralize control. Open protocols like bitcoin and nostr are not owned by anyone and if they were it would destroy the key value propositions they provide. No single entity can or should control their use. Anyone can build on them without permission.

As a result, open protocols must depend on donation based grant funding from the people and organizations that rely on them. This model works but it is slow and uncertain, a grind where sustainability is never fully reached but rather constantly sought. As someone who has been incredibly active in the open source grant funding space, I do not think people truly appreciate how difficult it is to raise charitable money and deploy it efficiently.

Projects that can be monetized should be. Profitability is a super power. When a business can generate revenue, it taps into a self sustaining cycle. Profit fuels growth and development while providing projects independence and agency. This flywheel effect is why companies like Google, Amazon, and Apple have scaled to global dominance. The profit incentive aligns human effort with efficiency. Businesses must innovate, cut waste, and deliver value to survive.

Contrast this with non monetized projects. Without profit, they lean on external support, which can dry up or shift with donor priorities. A profit driven model, on the other hand, is inherently leaner and more adaptable. It is not charity but survival. When survival is tied to delivering what people want, scale follows naturally.

The real magic happens when profitable, sustainable businesses are built on top of open protocols and software. Consider the many startups building on open source software stacks, such as Start9, Mempool, and Primal, offering premium services on top of the open source software they build out and maintain. Think of companies like Block or Strike, which leverage bitcoin’s open protocol to offer their services on top. These businesses amplify the open software and protocols they build on, driving adoption and improvement at a pace donations alone could never match.

When you combine open software and protocols with profit driven business the result are lean, sustainable companies that grow faster and serve more people than either could alone. Bitcoin’s network, for instance, benefits from businesses that profit off its existence, while nostr will expand as developers monetize apps built on the protocol.

Capitalism scales best because competition results in efficiency. Donation funded protocols and software lay the groundwork, while market driven businesses build on top. The profit incentive acts as a filter, ensuring resources flow to what works, while open systems keep the playing field accessible, empowering users and builders. Together, they create a flywheel of innovation, growth, and global benefit.

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

Someone asked for my thoughts, so I’ll share them thoughtfully. I’m not here to dictate how to promote Nostr—I’m still learning about it myself. While I’m not new to Nostr, freedom tech is a newer space for me. I’m skilled at advocating for topics I deeply understand, but freedom tech isn’t my expertise, so take my words with a grain of salt. Nothing I say is set in stone.

Those who need Nostr the most are the ones most vulnerable to censorship on other platforms right now. Reaching them requires real-time awareness of global issues and the dynamic relationships between governments and tech providers, which can shift suddenly. Effective Nostr promoters must grasp this and adapt quickly.

The best messengers are people from or closely tied to these at-risk regions—those who truly understand the local political and cultural dynamics. They can connect with those in need when tensions rise. Ideal promoters are rational, trustworthy, passionate about Nostr, but above all, dedicated to amplifying people’s voices when it matters most.

Forget influencers, corporate-backed figures, or traditional online PR—it comes off as inauthentic, corny, desperate and forced. Nostr’s promotion should be grassroots and organic, driven by a few passionate individuals who believe in Nostr and the communities they serve.

The idea that “people won’t join Nostr due to lack of reach” is nonsense. Everyone knows X’s “reach” is mostly with bots. If humans want real conversations, Nostr is the place. X is great for propaganda, but Nostr is for the authentic voices of the people.

Those spreading Nostr must be so passionate they’re willing to onboard others, which is time-consuming but rewarding for the right person. They’ll need to make Nostr and onboarding a core part of who they are. I see no issue with that level of dedication. I’ve been known to get that way myself at times. It’s fun for some folks.

With love, I suggest not adding Bitcoin promotion with Nostr outreach. Zaps already integrate that element naturally. (Still promote within the Bitcoin ecosystem, but this is about reaching vulnerable voices who needed Nostr yesterday.)

To promote Nostr, forget conventional strategies. “Influencers” aren’t the answer. “Influencers” are not the future. A trusted local community member has real influence—reach them. Connect with people seeking Nostr’s benefits but lacking the technical language to express it. This means some in the Nostr community might need to step outside of the Bitcoin bubble, which is uncomfortable but necessary. Thank you in advance to those who are willing to do that.

I don’t know who is paid to promote Nostr, if anyone. This piece isn’t shade. But it’s exhausting to see innocent voices globally silenced on corporate platforms like X while Nostr exists. Last night, I wondered: how many more voices must be censored before the Nostr community gets uncomfortable and thinks creatively to reach the vulnerable?

A warning: the global need for censorship-resistant social media is undeniable. If Nostr doesn’t make itself known, something else will fill that void. Let’s start this conversation.

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

Please respect Virginia Giuffre’s memory by refraining from asking about the circumstances or theories surrounding her passing.

Since Virginia Giuffre’s death, I’ve reflected on what she would want me to say or do. This piece is my attempt to honor her legacy.

When I first spoke with Virginia, I was struck by her unshakable hope. I had grown cynical after years in the anti-human trafficking movement, worn down by a broken system and a government that often seemed complicit. But Virginia’s passion, creativity, and belief that survivors could be heard reignited something in me. She reminded me of my younger, more hopeful self. Instead of warning her about the challenges ahead, I let her dream big, unburdened by my own disillusionment. That conversation changed me for the better, and following her lead led to meaningful progress.

Virginia was one of the bravest people I’ve ever known. As a survivor of Epstein, Maxwell, and their co-conspirators, she risked everything to speak out, taking on some of the world’s most powerful figures.

She loved when I said, “Epstein isn’t the only Epstein.” This wasn’t just about one man—it was a call to hold all abusers accountable and to ensure survivors find hope and healing.

The Epstein case often gets reduced to sensational details about the elite, but that misses the bigger picture. Yes, we should be holding all of the co-conspirators accountable, we must listen to the survivors’ stories. Their experiences reveal how predators exploit vulnerabilities, offering lessons to prevent future victims.

You’re not powerless in this fight. Educate yourself about trafficking and abuse—online and offline—and take steps to protect those around you. Supporting survivors starts with small, meaningful actions. Free online resources can guide you in being a safe, supportive presence.

When high-profile accusations arise, resist snap judgments. Instead of dismissing survivors as “crazy,” pause to consider the trauma they may be navigating. Speaking out or coping with abuse is never easy. You don’t have to believe every claim, but you can refrain from attacking accusers online.

Society also fails at providing aftercare for survivors. The government, often part of the problem, won’t solve this. It’s up to us. Prevention is critical, but when abuse occurs, step up for your loved ones and community. Protect the vulnerable. it’s a challenging but a rewarding journey.

If you’re contributing to Nostr, you’re helping build a censorship resistant platform where survivors can share their stories freely, no matter how powerful their abusers are. Their voices can endure here, offering strength and hope to others. This gives me great hope for the future.

Virginia Giuffre’s courage was a gift to the world. It was an honor to know and serve her. She will be deeply missed. My hope is that her story inspires others to take on the powerful.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

In het hart van een gepensioneerde operazangeres ontstond een stemmetje. Het stemmetje klonk verrast. "He," ging het hart. "Ik heb een stemmetje gekregen! Hoe kan dit? Kan iemand me horen? Zouden mijn gedachten me kunnen horen?" vroeg het stemmetje, niet wetend aan wie. Want de gedachten hoorden het niet. Zij waren zo druk bezig met het verleden en hadden een grote angst dit te verliezen. "Weet je nog?" gingen de gedachten. "Voor duizenden mensen heb ik gezongen! Avond na avond! Tienduizenden mensen hebben me toegejuicht! Wat waren ze onder de indruk! Luister! Ik kan het nog steeds!" "He," ging het hart. "Hoor je me dan niet? Het ging toch helemaal niet om dat gejuich. Weet je dan niet meer hoe ik me volledig bloot gaf aan die mensen. Mijn diepste en meest persoonlijke verhalen waren te horen in mijn liederen. Daar draaide het toch om? De mensen waren niet enkel onder de indruk. Hun harten hebben mijn verhalen gevoeld en konden zo kennis geven aan hun gedachten. Is dat niet wat echt telde?" Maar de gedachten waren volop aan het zingen voor de ene persoon die ze konden vinden die wou luisteren. "He," ging het hart. "Ook in dit moment zijn mijn liederen te horen door vele gedachten en te voelen door vele harten over de hele wereld. Heb ik dan geen rust verdiend? Kan ik niet even genieten van de rust die in dit moment te vinden is, maar jullie van me afnemen?" Maar de gedachten waren nog steeds volop aan het zingen.

@ 52b4a076:e7fad8bd

I have been recently building NFDB, a new relay DB. This post is meant as a short overview.

Regular relays have challenges

Current relay software have significant challenges, which I have experienced when hosting Nostr.land: - Scalability is only supported by adding full replicas, which does not scale to large relays. - Most relays use slow databases and are not optimized for large scale usage. - Search is near-impossible to implement on standard relays. - Privacy features such as NIP-42 are lacking. - Regular DB maintenance tasks on normal relays require extended downtime. - Fault-tolerance is implemented, if any, using a load balancer, which is limited. - Personalization and advanced filtering is not possible. - Local caching is not supported.

NFDB: A scalable database for large relays

NFDB is a new database meant for medium-large scale relays, built on FoundationDB that provides: - Near-unlimited scalability - Extended fault tolerance - Instant loading - Better search - Better personalization - and more.

Search

NFDB has extended search capabilities including: - Semantic search: Search for meaning, not words. - Interest-based search: Highlight content you care about. - Multi-faceted queries: Easily filter by topic, author group, keywords, and more at the same time. - Wide support for event kinds, including users, articles, etc.

Personalization

NFDB allows significant personalization: - Customized algorithms: Be your own algorithm. - Spam filtering: Filter content to your WoT, and use advanced spam filters. - Topic mutes: Mute topics, not keywords. - Media filtering: With Nostr.build, you will be able to filter NSFW and other content - Low data mode: Block notes that use high amounts of cellular data. - and more

Other

NFDB has support for many other features such as: - NIP-42: Protect your privacy with private drafts and DMs - Microrelays: Easily deploy your own personal microrelay - Containers: Dedicated, fast storage for discoverability events such as relay lists

Calcite: A local microrelay database

Calcite is a lightweight, local version of NFDB that is meant for microrelays and caching, meant for thousands of personal microrelays.

Calcite HA is an additional layer that allows live migration and relay failover in under 30 seconds, providing higher availability compared to current relays with greater simplicity. Calcite HA is enabled in all Calcite deployments.

For zero-downtime, NFDB is recommended.

Noswhere SmartCache

Relays are fixed in one location, but users can be anywhere.

Noswhere SmartCache is a CDN for relays that dynamically caches data on edge servers closest to you, allowing: - Multiple regions around the world - Improved throughput and performance - Faster loading times

routerd

routerd is a custom load-balancer optimized for Nostr relays, integrated with SmartCache.

routerd is specifically integrated with NFDB and Calcite HA to provide fast failover and high performance.

Ending notes

NFDB is planned to be deployed to Nostr.land in the coming weeks.

A lot more is to come. 👀️️️️️️

@ e3ba5e1a:5e433365

Prelude

I wrote this post differently than any of my others. It started with a discussion with AI on an OPSec-inspired review of separation of powers, and evolved into quite an exciting debate! I asked Grok to write up a summary in my overall writing style, which it got pretty well. I've decided to post it exactly as-is. Ultimately, I think there are two solid ideas driving my stance here:

1. Perfect is the enemy of the good
2. Failure is the crucible of success

Beyond that, just some hard-core belief in freedom, separation of powers, and operating from self-interest.

Intro

Alright, buckle up. I’ve been chewing on this idea for a while, and it’s time to spit it out. Let’s look at the U.S. government like I’d look at a codebase under a cybersecurity audit—OPSEC style, no fluff. Forget the endless debates about what politicians should do. That’s noise. I want to talk about what they can do, the raw powers baked into the system, and why we should stop pretending those powers are sacred. If there’s a hole, either patch it or exploit it. No half-measures. And yeah, I’m okay if the whole thing crashes a bit—failure’s a feature, not a bug.

The Filibuster: A Security Rule with No Teeth

You ever see a firewall rule that’s more theater than protection? That’s the Senate filibuster. Everyone acts like it’s this untouchable guardian of democracy, but here’s the deal: a simple majority can torch it any day. It’s not a law; it’s a Senate preference, like choosing tabs over spaces. When people call killing it the “nuclear option,” I roll my eyes. Nuclear? It’s a button labeled “press me.” If a party wants it gone, they’ll do it. So why the dance?

I say stop playing games. Get rid of the filibuster. If you’re one of those folks who thinks it’s the only thing saving us from tyranny, fine—push for a constitutional amendment to lock it in. That’s a real patch, not a Post-it note. Until then, it’s just a vulnerability begging to be exploited. Every time a party threatens to nuke it, they’re admitting it’s not essential. So let’s stop pretending and move on.

Supreme Court Packing: Because Nine’s Just a Number

Here’s another fun one: the Supreme Court. Nine justices, right? Sounds official. Except it’s not. The Constitution doesn’t say nine—it’s silent on the number. Congress could pass a law tomorrow to make it 15, 20, or 42 (hitchhiker’s reference, anyone?). Packing the court is always on the table, and both sides know it. It’s like a root exploit just sitting there, waiting for someone to log in.

So why not call the bluff? If you’re in power—say, Trump’s back in the game—say, “I’m packing the court unless we amend the Constitution to fix it at nine.” Force the issue. No more shadowboxing. And honestly? The court’s got way too much power anyway. It’s not supposed to be a super-legislature, but here we are, with justices’ ideologies driving the bus. That’s a bug, not a feature. If the court weren’t such a kingmaker, packing it wouldn’t even matter. Maybe we should be talking about clipping its wings instead of just its size.

The Executive Should Go Full Klingon

Let’s talk presidents. I’m not saying they should wear Klingon armor and start shouting “Qapla’!”—though, let’s be real, that’d be awesome. I’m saying the executive should use every scrap of power the Constitution hands them. Enforce the laws you agree with, sideline the ones you don’t. If Congress doesn’t like it, they’ve got tools: pass new laws, override vetoes, or—here’s the big one—cut the budget. That’s not chaos; that’s the system working as designed.

Right now, the real problem isn’t the president overreaching; it’s the bureaucracy. It’s like a daemon running in the background, eating CPU and ignoring the user. The president’s supposed to be the one steering, but the administrative state’s got its own agenda. Let the executive flex, push the limits, and force Congress to check it. Norms? Pfft. The Constitution’s the spec sheet—stick to it.

Let the System Crash

Here’s where I get a little spicy: I’m totally fine if the government grinds to a halt. Deadlock isn’t a disaster; it’s a feature. If the branches can’t agree, let the president veto, let Congress starve the budget, let enforcement stall. Don’t tell me about “essential services.” Nothing’s so critical it can’t take a breather. Shutdowns force everyone to the table—debate, compromise, or expose who’s dropping the ball. If the public loses trust? Good. They’ll vote out the clowns or live with the circus they elected.

Think of it like a server crash. Sometimes you need a hard reboot to clear the cruft. If voters keep picking the same bad admins, well, the country gets what it deserves. Failure’s the best teacher—way better than limping along on autopilot.

States Are the Real MVPs

If the feds fumble, states step up. Right now, states act like junior devs waiting for the lead engineer to sign off. Why? Federal money. It’s a leash, and it’s tight. Cut that cash, and states will remember they’re autonomous. Some will shine, others will tank—looking at you, California. And I’m okay with that. Let people flee to better-run states. No bailouts, no excuses. States are like competing startups: the good ones thrive, the bad ones pivot or die.

Could it get uneven? Sure. Some states might turn into sci-fi utopias while others look like a post-apocalyptic vidya game. That’s the point—competition sorts it out. Citizens can move, markets adjust, and failure’s a signal to fix your act.

Chaos Isn’t the Enemy

Yeah, this sounds messy. States ignoring federal law, external threats poking at our seams, maybe even a constitutional crisis. I’m not scared. The Supreme Court’s there to referee interstate fights, and Congress sets the rules for state-to-state play. But if it all falls apart? Still cool. States can sort it without a babysitter—it’ll be ugly, but freedom’s worth it. External enemies? They’ll either unify us or break us. If we can’t rally, we don’t deserve the win.

Centralizing power to avoid this is like rewriting your app in a single thread to prevent race conditions—sure, it’s simpler, but you’re begging for a deadlock. Decentralized chaos lets states experiment, lets people escape, lets markets breathe. States competing to cut regulations to attract businesses? That’s a race to the bottom for red tape, but a race to the top for innovation—workers might gripe, but they’ll push back, and the tension’s healthy. Bring it—let the cage match play out. The Constitution’s checks are enough if we stop coddling the system.

Why This Matters

I’m not pitching a utopia. I’m pitching a stress test. The U.S. isn’t a fragile porcelain doll; it’s a rugged piece of hardware built to take some hits. Let it fail a little—filibuster, court, feds, whatever. Patch the holes with amendments if you want, or lean into the grind. Either way, stop fearing the crash. It’s how we debug the republic.

So, what’s your take? Ready to let the system rumble, or got a better way to secure the code? Hit me up—I’m all ears.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

I am the space\ In which your experience takes place

You could never meet me\ For I hold no identity

The only way to really see me\ Is to be me

@ c066aac5:6a41a034

I’m drawn to extremities in art. The louder, the bolder, the more outrageous, the better. Bold art takes me out of the mundane into a whole new world where anything and everything is possible. Having grown up in the safety of the suburban midwest, I was a bit of a rebellious soul in search of the satiation that only came from the consumption of the outrageous. My inclination to find bold art draws me to NOSTR, because I believe NOSTR can be the place where the next generation of artistic pioneers go to express themselves. I also believe that as much as we are able, were should invite them to come create here.

My Background: A Small Side Story

My father was a professional gamer in the 80s, back when there was no money or glory in the avocation. He did get a bit of spotlight though after the fact: in the mid 2000’s there were a few parties making documentaries about that era of gaming as well as current arcade events (namely 2007’sChasing GhostsandThe King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters). As a result of these documentaries, there was a revival in the arcade gaming scene. My family attended events related to the documentaries or arcade gaming and I became exposed to a lot of things I wouldn’t have been able to find. The producer ofThe King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters had previously made a documentary calledNew York Dollwhich was centered around the life of bassist Arthur Kane. My 12 year old mind was blown: The New York Dolls were a glam-punk sensation dressed in drag. The music was from another planet. Johnny Thunders’ guitar playing was like Chuck Berry with more distortion and less filter. Later on I got to meet the Galaga record holder at the time, Phil Day, in Ottumwa Iowa. Phil is an Australian man of high intellect and good taste. He exposed me to great creators such as Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds, Shakespeare, Lou Reed, artists who created things that I had previously found inconceivable.

I believe this time period informed my current tastes and interests, but regrettably I think it also put coals on the fire of rebellion within. I stopped taking my parents and siblings seriously, the Christian faith of my family (which I now hold dearly to) seemed like a mundane sham, and I felt I couldn’t fit in with most people because of my avant-garde tastes. So I write this with the caveat that there should be a way to encourage these tastes in children without letting them walk down the wrong path. There is nothing inherently wrong with bold art, but I’d advise parents to carefully find ways to cultivate their children’s tastes without completely shutting them down and pushing them away as a result. My parents were very loving and patient during this time; I thank God for that.

With that out of the way, lets dive in to some bold artists:

Nicolas Cage: Actor

There is an excellent video by Wisecrack on Nicolas Cage that explains him better than I will, which I will linkhere. Nicolas Cage rejects the idea that good acting is tied to mere realism; all of his larger than life acting decisions are deliberate choices. When that clicked for me, I immediately realized the man is a genius. He borrows from Kabuki and German Expressionism, art forms that rely on exaggeration to get the message across. He has even created his own acting style, which he calls Nouveau Shamanic. He augments his imagination to go from acting to being. Rather than using the old hat of method acting, he transports himself to a new world mentally. The projects he chooses to partake in are based on his own interests or what he considers would be a challenge (making a bad script good for example). Thus it doesn’t matter how the end result comes out; he has already achieved his goal as an artist. Because of this and because certain directors don’t know how to use his talents, he has a noticeable amount of duds in his filmography. Dig around the duds, you’ll find some pure gold. I’d personally recommend the filmsPig, Joe, Renfield, and his Christmas film The Family Man.

Nick Cave: Songwriter

What a wild career this man has had! From the apocalyptic mayhem of his band The Birthday Party to the pensive atmosphere of his albumGhosteen, it seems like Nick Cave has tried everything. I think his secret sauce is that he’s always working. He maintains an excellent newsletter calledThe Red Hand Files, he has written screenplays such asLawless, he has written books, he has made great film scores such asThe Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, the man is religiously prolific. I believe that one of the reasons he is prolific is that he’s not afraid to experiment. If he has an idea, he follows it through to completion. From the albumMurder Ballads(which is comprised of what the title suggests) to his rejected sequel toGladiator(Gladiator: Christ Killer), he doesn’t seem to be afraid to take anything on. This has led to some over the top works as well as some deeply personal works. Albums likeSkeleton TreeandGhosteenwere journeys through the grief of his son’s death. The Boatman’s Callis arguably a better break-up album than anything Taylor Swift has put out. He’s not afraid to be outrageous, he’s not afraid to offend, but most importantly he’s not afraid to be himself. Works I’d recommend include The Birthday Party’sLive 1981-82, Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds’The Boatman’s Call, and the filmLawless.

Jim Jarmusch: Director

I consider Jim’s films to be bold almost in an ironic sense: his works are bold in that they are, for the most part, anti-sensational. He has a rule that if his screenplays are criticized for a lack of action, he makes them even less eventful. Even with sensational settings his films feel very close to reality, and they demonstrate the beauty of everyday life. That's what is bold about his art to me: making the sensational grounded in reality while making everyday reality all the more special. Ghost Dog: The Way of the Samurai is about a modern-day African-American hitman who strictly follows the rules of the ancient Samurai, yet one can resonate with the humanity of a seemingly absurd character. Only Lovers Left Aliveis a vampire love story, but in the middle of a vampire romance one can see their their own relationships in a new deeply human light. Jim’s work reminds me that art reflects life, and that there is sacred beauty in seemingly mundane everyday life. I personally recommend his filmsPaterson,Down by Law, andCoffee and Cigarettes.

NOSTR: We Need Bold Art

NOSTR is in my opinion a path to a better future. In a world creeping slowly towards everything apps, I hope that the protocol where the individual owns their data wins over everything else. I love freedom and sovereignty. If NOSTR is going to win the race of everything apps, we need more than Bitcoin content. We need more than shirtless bros paying for bananas in foreign countries and exercising with girls who have seductive accents. Common people cannot see themselves in such a world. NOSTR needs to catch the attention of everyday people. I don’t believe that this can be accomplished merely by introducing more broadly relevant content; people are searching for content that speaks to them. I believe that NOSTR can and should attract artists of all kinds because NOSTR is one of the few places on the internet where artists can express themselves fearlessly. Getting zaps from NOSTR’s value-for-value ecosystem has far less friction than crowdfunding a creative project or pitching investors that will irreversibly modify an artist’s vision. Having a place where one can post their works without fear of censorship should be extremely enticing. Having a place where one can connect with fellow humans directly as opposed to a sea of bots should seem like the obvious solution. If NOSTR can become a safe haven for artists to express themselves and spread their work, I believe that everyday people will follow. The banker whose stressful job weighs on them will suddenly find joy with an original meme made by a great visual comedian. The programmer for a healthcare company who is drowning in hopeless mundanity could suddenly find a new lust for life by hearing the song of a musician who isn’t afraid to crowdfund their their next project by putting their lighting address on the streets of the internet. The excel guru who loves independent film may find that NOSTR is the best way to support non corporate movies. My closing statement: continue to encourage the artists in your life as I’m sure you have been, but while you’re at it give them the purple pill. You may very well be a part of building a better future.

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

I want to see Nostr succeed. If you can think of a way I can help make that happen, I’m open to it. I’d like your suggestions.

My schedule’s shifting soon, and I could volunteer a few hours a week to a Nostr project. I won’t have more total time, but how I use it will change.

Why help? I care about freedom. Nostr’s one of the most powerful freedom tools I’ve seen in my lifetime. If I believe that, I should act on it.

I don’t care about money or sats. I’m not rich, I don’t have extra cash. That doesn’t drive me—freedom does. I’m volunteering, not asking for pay.

I’m not here for clout. I’ve had enough spotlight in my life; it doesn’t move me. If I wanted clout, I’d be on Twitter dropping basic takes. Clout’s easy. Freedom’s hard. I’d rather help anonymously. No speaking at events—small meetups are cool for the vibe, but big conferences? Not my thing. I’ll never hit a huge Bitcoin conference. It’s just not my scene.

That said, I could be convinced to step up if it’d really boost Nostr—as long as it’s legal and gets results.

In this space, I’d watch for social engineering. I watch out for it. I’m not here to make friends, just to help. No shade—you all seem great—but I’ve got a full life and awesome friends irl. I don’t need your crew or to be online cool. Connect anonymously if you want; I’d encourage it.

I’m sick of watching other social media alternatives grow while Nostr kinda stalls. I could trash-talk, but I’d rather do something useful.

Skills? I’m good at spotting social media problems and finding possible solutions. I won’t overhype myself—that’s weird—but if you’re responding, you probably see something in me. Perhaps you see something that I don’t see in myself.

If you need help now or later with Nostr projects, reach out. Nostr only—nothing else. Anonymous contact’s fine. Even just a suggestion on how I can pitch in, no project attached, works too. 💜

Creeps or harassment will get blocked or I’ll nuke my simplex code if it becomes a problem.

https://simplex.chat/contact#/?v=2-4&smp=smp%3A%2F%2FSkIkI6EPd2D63F4xFKfHk7I1UGZVNn6k1QWZ5rcyr6w%3D%40smp9.simplex.im%2FbI99B3KuYduH8jDr9ZwyhcSxm2UuR7j0%23%2F%3Fv%3D1-2%26dh%3DMCowBQYDK2VuAyEAS9C-zPzqW41PKySfPCEizcXb1QCus6AyDkTTjfyMIRM%253D%26srv%3Djssqzccmrcws6bhmn77vgmhfjmhwlyr3u7puw4erkyoosywgl67slqqd.onion

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Love, I thank you for your warmth\ Ever lifting

You keep me charmed\ Ever drifting

May I be me\ And you be you

In a perfect harmony\ Embracing all life makes us grow through

@ bc575705:dba3ed39

In our hyper-connected age, the concept of "Know Your Customer" (KYC) has morphed from a regulatory necessity into a pervasive surveillance apparatus, subtly eroding our fundamental liberties. While purported to combat financial crime, KYC has become a tool for mass surveillance, data exploitation, and the gradual dismantling of personal privacy. Let’s embark on a comprehensive exploration of this system, exposing its inherent flaws and advocating for a paradigm shift towards decentralized financial sovereignty.

Beyond the Surface: The Intricate Web of KYC Data Collection

KYC transcends mere identity verification; it's a deep dive into the minutiae of our lives. Consider the breadth and depth of data extracted:

Geographic Surveillance: Proof of address requirements delve into historical residency, creating granular maps of our movements. Combined with location data from mobile devices and online activity, this paints a comprehensive picture of our physical presence.

Financial Autopsy: KYC dissects our financial lives with surgical precision. Income sources, asset declarations, and transaction histories are meticulously cataloged. Algorithmic analysis reveals spending habits, investment strategies, and even potential political affiliations.

Behavioral Predictive Modeling: AI algorithms analyze our financial behavior, predicting future actions and preferences. This data is invaluable for targeted advertising, but also for social engineering and political manipulation.

Biometric Invasiveness: Facial recognition, iris scans, and voice analysis create permanent, immutable records of our physical selves. These biometrics are highly sensitive and vulnerable to breaches, potentially leading to identity theft and even physical harm.

Social Network Mapping: KYC extends beyond individuals, mapping our social and professional networks. Institutions analyze our connections, identifying potential risks based on our associations. This has a chilling effect on free association and dissent, as individuals become hesitant to associate with those deemed "risky."

Psychometric Profiling: With the increase of online tests, and the collection of online data, companies and states can build psychometric profiles. These profiles can be used to predict actions, and even manipulate populations.

The Fallacy of Security: KYC's Ineffectiveness and the Rise of the Surveillance State

Despite its claims, KYC fails to effectively combat sophisticated financial crime. Instead, it creates a system of mass surveillance that disproportionately targets law-abiding citizens.

The Scourge of False Positives: Automated KYC systems frequently generate false positives, flagging innocent individuals as potential criminals. This can lead to financial exclusion, reputational damage, and even legal persecution.

A Ticking Time Bomb: Centralized KYC databases are prime targets for hackers, putting vast amounts of sensitive personal information at risk. Data breaches can lead to identity theft, financial fraud, and even physical harm.

The State's Panopticon: KYC empowers governments to monitor the financial activities of their citizens, creating a powerful tool for surveillance and control. This can be used to suppress dissent, target political opponents, and enforce conformity.

The Criminals Advantage: Sophisticated criminals easily bypass KYC using shell companies, money laundering, and other techniques. This makes KYC a system that punishes the innocent, and gives the criminals a false sense of security for the data collected.

Decentralized Alternatives: Reclaiming Financial Sovereignty and Privacy

In the face of this encroaching surveillance state, decentralized technologies offer a path to financial freedom and privacy.

Cryptocurrency | A Bastion of Financial Freedom: Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies provide censorship-resistant alternatives to traditional financial systems. They empower individuals to transact freely, without the need for intermediaries or government oversight.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) | Democratizing Finance: DeFi platforms offer a range of financial services, including lending, borrowing, and trading, without the need for traditional banks. These platforms are built on blockchain technology, ensuring transparency, security, and accessibility.

Self-Sovereign Identity (SSI) | Empowering Individuals: SSI solutions enable individuals to control their own digital identities, without relying on centralized authorities. This allows for secure and private verification of identity, without the need to share sensitive personal information with every service provider.

Privacy-Enhancing Technologies (PETs) | Shielding Your Data: Technologies like zero-knowledge proofs, homomorphic encryption, and secure multi-party computation can be used to protect personal data while still allowing for necessary verification.

Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) | Creating new forms of governance: DAOs provide new ways for groups to organize, and make decisions. They provide a transparent way to pool resources, and make decisions.

A Call to Action: Defending Our Digital Rights and Building a Decentralized Future

We cannot passively accept the erosion of our fundamental freedoms. We must actively defend our digital rights and demand a more just and equitable financial system.

Advocate for Robust Privacy Laws: Demand stronger regulations that limit the collection and use of personal data.

Champion Decentralized Technologies: Support the development and adoption of cryptocurrencies, DeFi platforms, and other decentralized solutions.

Educate and Empower: Raise awareness about the dangers of KYC and state surveillance.

Cultivate Critical Thinking: Question the narratives presented by governments and corporations.

Build Decentralized Communities: Join and support decentralized communities that are working to build a more free and open financial system.

Demand transparency from all data collection: Insist that all data collection is open, and that there are strong penalties for those that misuse data.

The fight for financial freedom is a fight for human freedom. Let us stand together and reclaim our digital sovereignty.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Jaren tellen\ Hoeft voor mij niet

Verhalen vertellen\ Over geluk en verdriet

Een warme haven\ Veilig en fijn

Dromen voorgedragen\ Onschuldig en rein

Momenten ervaard, geleerd\ En geïntegreerd

Ideeën, geloven en gevoelens\ Gevormd en gecreëerd

Zonder eind of echt begin\ Vallen, groeien, leren, stoeien

Een gezin in een gezin met een gezin erin\ Gezind gericht blijft liefde vloeien

@ 21335073:a244b1ad

Before I saw those X right-wing political “influencers” parading their Epstein binders in that PR stunt, I’d already posted this on Nostr, an open protocol. 

“Today, the world’s attention will likely fixate on Epstein, governmental failures in addressing horrific abuse cases, and the influential figures who perpetrate such acts—yet few will center the victims and survivors in the conversation. The survivors of Epstein went to law enforcement and very little happened. The survivors tried to speak to the corporate press and the corporate press knowingly covered for him. In situations like these social media can serve as one of the only ways for a survivor’s voice to be heard. 

It’s becoming increasingly evident that the line between centralized corporate social media and the state is razor-thin, if it exists at all. Time and again, the state shields powerful abusers when it’s politically expedient to do so. In this climate, a survivor attempting to expose someone like Epstein on a corporate tech platform faces an uphill battle—there’s no assurance their voice would even break through. Their story wouldn’t truly belong to them; it’d be at the mercy of the platform, subject to deletion at a whim. Nostr, though, offers a lifeline—a censorship-resistant space where survivors can share their truths, no matter how untouchable the abuser might seem. A survivor could remain anonymous here if they took enough steps. 

Nostr holds real promise for amplifying survivor voices. And if you’re here daily, tossing out memes, take heart: you’re helping build a foundation for those who desperately need to be heard.“

That post is untouchable—no CEO, company, employee, or government can delete it. Even if I wanted to, I couldn’t take it down myself. The post will outlive me on the protocol. 

The cozy alliance between the state and corporate social media hit me hard during that right-wing X “influencer” PR stunt. Elon owns X. Elon’s a special government employee. X pays those influencers to post. We don’t know who else pays them to post. Those influencers are spurred on by both the government and X to manage the Epstein case narrative. It wasn’t survivors standing there, grinning for photos—it was paid influencers, gatekeepers orchestrating yet another chance to re-exploit the already exploited.

The bond between the state and corporate social media is tight. If the other Epsteins out there are ever to be unmasked, I wouldn’t bet on a survivor’s story staying safe with a corporate tech platform, the government, any social media influencer, or mainstream journalist. Right now, only a protocol can hand survivors the power to truly own their narrative.

I don’t have anything against Elon—I’ve actually been a big supporter. I’m just stating it as I see it. X isn’t censorship resistant and they have an algorithm that they choose not the user. Corporate tech platforms like X can be a better fit for some survivors. X has safety tools and content moderation, making it a solid option for certain individuals. Grok can be a big help for survivors looking for resources or support! As a survivor, you know what works best for you, and safety should always come first—keep that front and center.

That said, a protocol is a game-changer for cases where the powerful are likely to censor. During China's # MeToo movement, survivors faced heavy censorship on social media platforms like Weibo and WeChat, where posts about sexual harassment were quickly removed, and hashtags like # MeToo or "woyeshi" were blocked by government and platform filters. To bypass this, activists turned to blockchain technology encoding their stories—like Yue Xin’s open letter about a Peking University case—into transaction metadata. This made the information tamper-proof and publicly accessible, resisting censorship since blockchain data can’t be easily altered or deleted.

I posted this on X 2/28/25. I wanted to try my first long post on a nostr client. The Epstein cover up is ongoing so it’s still relevant, unfortunately.

If you are a survivor or loved one who is reading this and needs support please reach out to: National Sexual Assault Hotline 24/7 https://rainn.org/

Hours: Available 24 hours

@ 6389be64:ef439d32

GA, plebs. The latest episode of Bitcoin And is out, and, as always, the chicanery is running rampant. Let’s break down the biggest topics I covered, and if you want the full, unfiltered rant, make sure to listen to the episode linked below.

House Democrats’ MEME Act: A Bad Joke?

House Democrats are proposing a bill to ban presidential meme coins, clearly aimed at Trump’s and Melania’s ill-advised token launches. While grifters launching meme coins is bad, this bill is just as ridiculous. If this legislation moves forward, expect a retaliatory strike exposing how politicians like Pelosi and Warren mysteriously amassed their fortunes. Will it pass? Doubtful. But it’s another sign of the government’s obsession with regulating everything except itself.

Senate Banking’s First Digital Asset Hearing: The Real Target Is You

Cynthia Lummis chaired the first digital asset hearing, and—surprise!—it was all about control. The discussion centered on stablecoins, AML, and KYC regulations, with witnesses suggesting Orwellian measures like freezing stablecoin transactions unless pre-approved by authorities. What was barely mentioned? Bitcoin. They want full oversight of stablecoins, which is really about controlling financial freedom. Expect more nonsense targeting self-custody wallets under the guise of stopping “bad actors.”

Bank of America and PayPal Want In on Stablecoins

Bank of America’s CEO openly stated they’ll launch a stablecoin as soon as regulation allows. Meanwhile, PayPal’s CEO paid for a hat using Bitcoin—not their own stablecoin, Pi USD. Why wouldn’t he use his own product? Maybe he knows stablecoins aren’t what they’re hyped up to be. Either way, the legacy financial system is gearing up to flood the market with stablecoins, not because they love crypto, but because it’s a tool to extend U.S. dollar dominance.

MetaPlanet Buys the Dip

Japan’s MetaPlanet issued $13.4M in bonds to buy more Bitcoin, proving once again that institutions see the writing on the wall. Unlike U.S. regulators who obsess over stablecoins, some companies are actually stacking sats.

UK Expands Crypto Seizure Powers

Across the pond, the UK government is pushing legislation to make it easier to seize and destroy crypto linked to criminal activity. While they frame it as going after the bad guys, it’s another move toward centralized control and financial surveillance.

Bitcoin Tools & Tech: Arc, SatoChip, and Nunchuk

Some bullish Bitcoin developments: ARC v0.5 is making Bitcoin’s second layer more efficient, SatoChip now supports Taproot and Nostr, and Nunchuk launched a group wallet with chat, making multisig collaboration easier.

The Bottom Line

The state is coming for financial privacy and control, and stablecoins are their weapon of choice. Bitcoiners need to stay focused, keep their coins in self-custody, and build out parallel systems. Expect more regulatory attacks, but don’t let them distract you—just keep stacking and transacting in ways they can’t control.

🎧 Listen to the full episode here: https://fountain.fm/episode/PYITCo18AJnsEkKLz2Ks

💰 Support the show by boosting sats on Podcasting 2.0! and I will see you on the other side.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

The world around me\ Is assumed to be

Through sensory observations\ This appears to me

What I experience\ Is for me

But the ultimate experience\ Is for me\ To be

@ 94a6a78a:0ddf320e

Nostr is a revolutionary protocol that enables decentralized, censorship-resistant communication. Unlike traditional social networks controlled by corporations, Nostr operates without central servers or gatekeepers. This openness makes it incredibly powerful—but also means its success depends entirely on users, developers, and relay operators.

If you believe in free speech, decentralization, and an open internet, there are many ways to support and strengthen the Nostr ecosystem. Whether you're a casual user, a developer, or someone looking to contribute financially, every effort helps build a more robust network.

Here’s how you can get involved and make a difference.

---

1️⃣ Use Nostr Daily

The simplest and most effective way to contribute to Nostr is by using it regularly. The more active users, the stronger and more valuable the network becomes.

✅ Post, comment, and zap (send micro-payments via Bitcoin’s Lightning Network) to keep conversations flowing.\ ✅ Engage with new users and help them understand how Nostr works.\ ✅ Try different Nostr clients like Damus, Amethyst, Snort, or Primal and provide feedback to improve the experience.

Your activity keeps the network alive and helps encourage more developers and relay operators to invest in the ecosystem.

---

2️⃣ Run Your Own Nostr Relay

Relays are the backbone of Nostr, responsible for distributing messages across the network. The more independent relays exist, the stronger and more censorship-resistant Nostr becomes.

✅ Set up your own relay to help decentralize the network further.\ ✅ Experiment with relay configurations and different performance optimizations.\ ✅ Offer public or private relay services to users looking for high-quality infrastructure.

If you're not technical, you can still support relay operators by subscribing to a paid relay or donating to open-source relay projects.

---

3️⃣ Support Paid Relays & Infrastructure

Free relays have helped Nostr grow, but they struggle with spam, slow speeds, and sustainability issues. Paid relays help fund better infrastructure, faster message delivery, and a more reliable experience.

✅ Subscribe to a paid relay to help keep it running.\ ✅ Use premium services like media hosting (e.g., Azzamo Blossom) to decentralize content storage.\ ✅ Donate to relay operators who invest in long-term infrastructure.

By funding Nostr’s decentralized backbone, you help ensure its longevity and reliability.

---

4️⃣ Zap Developers, Creators & Builders

Many people contribute to Nostr without direct financial compensation—developers who build clients, relay operators, educators, and content creators. You can support them with zaps! ⚡

✅ Find developers working on Nostr projects and send them a zap.\ ✅ Support content creators and educators who spread awareness about Nostr.\ ✅ Encourage builders by donating to open-source projects.

Micro-payments via the Lightning Network make it easy to directly support the people who make Nostr better.

---

5️⃣ Develop New Nostr Apps & Tools

If you're a developer, you can build on Nostr’s open protocol to create new apps, bots, or tools. Nostr is permissionless, meaning anyone can develop for it.

✅ Create new Nostr clients with unique features and user experiences.\ ✅ Build bots or automation tools that improve engagement and usability.\ ✅ Experiment with decentralized identity, authentication, and encryption to make Nostr even stronger.

With no corporate gatekeepers, your projects can help shape the future of decentralized social media.

---

6️⃣ Promote & Educate Others About Nostr

Adoption grows when more people understand and use Nostr. You can help by spreading awareness and creating educational content.

✅ Write blogs, guides, and tutorials explaining how to use Nostr.\ ✅ Make videos or social media posts introducing new users to the protocol.\ ✅ Host discussions, Twitter Spaces, or workshops to onboard more people.

The more people understand and trust Nostr, the stronger the ecosystem becomes.

---

7️⃣ Support Open-Source Nostr Projects

Many Nostr tools and clients are built by volunteers, and open-source projects thrive on community support.

✅ Contribute code to existing Nostr projects on GitHub.\ ✅ Report bugs and suggest features to improve Nostr clients.\ ✅ Donate to developers who keep Nostr free and open for everyone.

If you're not a developer, you can still help with testing, translations, and documentation to make projects more accessible.

---

🚀 Every Contribution Strengthens Nostr

Whether you:

✔️ Post and engage daily\ ✔️ Zap creators and developers\ ✔️ Run or support relays\ ✔️ Build new apps and tools\ ✔️ Educate and onboard new users

Every action helps make Nostr more resilient, decentralized, and unstoppable.

Nostr isn’t just another social network—it’s a movement toward a free and open internet. If you believe in digital freedom, privacy, and decentralization, now is the time to get involved.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year, my dearest human family\ Happy New Year, my dearest animal family

Dear children of the Earth\ I wish you all a magical year

May it be utterly new\ Ever-changing\ New now

And may your journey say\ Life is amazing! I'm in a maze\ Life is awesome! Quite some awe\ Life is magical! True alchemy

I am human\ Black woman, I love you so\ Life-giver of my origin, the negro [nigiro]

I am\ Thus physical and non-physical meet

Life is to be\ As the elements are and compete\ And as they collide with one another\ One becomes aware of an other\ And so life sets on a journey\ To discover the other

Animal life is set to explore\ Allowing all experience the other has in store\ Life left to experience without a voice\ Until it discovers there is an 'I'\ And it has a choice

Human life is to be inside a human body\ Thus fusion between intellect and feeling\ Gets to express its perspective\ Inside infinity

Truly, a magical gift\ My Holy Trinity

And so from human life flow many voices\ As it navigates through infinite choices

Thus I say

Life is magic\ A gift for all that is here\ Perceived by too many as tragic\ Take care of your vision, I tell you, my dear [tell-a-vision]

Life is magic\ And words are spells\ Placing your aim beyond your reach\ It takes away efficiency from your speech

Life is magic\ Above all else\ Even when it has me feeling blue\ Seemingly left without a clue

Still I say

Perfection\ You are everything\ And I am of you

The source, the mirror\ And the reflection

@ 8b0a2bea:857d369f

Hey friends,

We're sharing this month's Geyser project launches on Stacker News! Feel free to subscribe to our email newsletter here to get these monthly updates in your mailbox!

This month’s list of Tools, Community, and Causes is stacked. From Uganda to Vietnam to El Salvador, it’s clear that Bitcoin is becoming a global movement! Bullish.

Let's dive in!👇

---

📚 Bitcoin Education - Laos Bitcoin Education 🇱🇦 🔥$583. Laos is battling 200% post-COVID inflation — help spread Bitcoin knowledge as a lifeline. - Abe 3 🇺🇸🔥 $324: Now entering its 4th year of free Bitcoin classes for the community. - NewB 🇰🇪🔥 $214: Open-source Bitcoin resources for Kenyan beginners. - Beyond Adversity: BTC Podcast: Stories of hope and financial freedom from underserved communities.

🌍 Community & Causes - Bitcoin for God 🇺🇸🔥 $1,194: Matching Bitcoin grants to help Christians orange-pill their ministries. - Ciclista Lima FC🇵🇪🔥$1,213: Scholarships for young footballers in Peru — future Bitcoin team. - Bitcoin-Funded Orphanage in Uganda 🇺🇬🔥$217: Safe, permanent home for vulnerable children. - Sviublokade FDU 🇷🇸🔥$134: Helping Serbian university staff punished for standing with students. - Football Support in El Salvador 🇸🇻🔥 $63: Backing a youth football club at La Cruz coffee farm. - Street Vendor Accepts Bitcoin 🇧🇴 Empowering street workers in Bolivia with BTC. - Razgibavanje: Support grassroots content in the Balkans. - Hope With Bitcoin – Saigon Flea Market 2025 🔥 $310: Grassroots Bitcoin adoption through events in Vietnam.

🛠️ Tools & Tech - WeSatoshis 🇦🇷🔥 $1,489: KYC-free, mobile-free Bitcoin card for everyday spending. - Hive Honey 🇺🇸🔥 $297: Nostr + Lightning video conferencing. - MedSchlr 🔥 $210: Decentralized client bringing medical knowledge to Nostr. - Bitcoin Travel 🇸🇻🔥$231: Book flights, hotels — Bitcoin only. - Stacksworth 🇨🇦🔥 $109: Bitcoin stat displays for your desk or wall. - Plunda 🇬🇧🔥 $217: Trade digital collectibles, redeem them physically. - BTC Wallpaper 🇩🇰🔥 Limited-edition, high-res Bitcoin backgrounds. - Swapido 🇲🇽🔥: Send Bitcoin, pay bank accounts in Mexico instantly. - Reserve BTC🇹🇭🔥: Trustless wallet balance proof protocol.

🎭 Culture - Barnoff Freedom Stage 🇬🇧🔥 $362: Free expression meets sound system culture. - 7 Wonders 🇧🇷🔥 $63: Bitcoin’s first Guinness World Record attempt.

https://stacker.news/items/1003921

@ 9e69e420:d12360c2

President Trump has intensified immigration enforcement, likening it to a wartime effort. Despite pouring resources into the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), arrest numbers are declining and falling short of goals. ICE fell from about 800 daily arrests in late January to fewer than 600 in early February.

Critics argue the administration is merely showcasing efforts with ineffectiveness, while Trump seeks billions more in funding to support his deportation agenda. Increased involvement from various federal agencies is intended to assist ICE, but many lack specific immigration training.

Challenges persist, as fewer immigrants are available for quick deportation due to a decline in illegal crossings. Local sheriffs are also pressured by rising demands to accommodate immigrants, which may strain resources further.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

De laatste zonnestralen van de dag streken over de eeuwige golven en weerkaatsten als lichtpuntjes in de ogen van schipper Joris terwijl hij nog een slok nam van zijn glazen fles die de vorm had van het hoofd van een oude monnik.

Gekregen van een oude vrouw uit de bergen van de Himalaya, zorgde de rum genaamd 'Old Monk' voor een verwarmend gezelschap op deze eenzame kerstnacht.

Joris had met zijn boot naar India gevaren nadat zijn vrouw hem had verlaten en hij een Indiër had ontmoet die had gezegd: "Waar ik vandaan kom, zijn vrouwen vrij en worden ze niet gezien als enkel en alleen de mooie lichamen die zij bezitten of als eeuwig bezit van een gezin."

Verward en ongelovig had Joris gekeken naar de wereld en besefte dat vrouwen inderdaad slechts gezien werden als hun fysieke schoonheid, genegeerd werden voor hun koesterende gevoeligheid en bekritiseerd werden door hun spontane intensheid en had hierop voor twee jaar lang gezocht in India naar deze vrije vrouwen met als enig resultaat een oude vrouw te ontmoeten die alleen in de bergen woonde en dagelijks haar wijsheid deelde met ieder luisterend oor.

Daar ging het doorzichtig monnikshoofd en verliet met een grote gebogen vlucht de hand van schipper Joris toen plots met groot kabaal de boot abrupt tot stilstand kwam en Joris hals over kop naar de andere kant van het dek geslingerd werd.

Het monnikshoofd verdween in het donker terwijl Joris zijn lichaam probeerde te lokaliseren en met zijn ogen wijd open zijn hersenen zo veel mogelijk informatie probeerde door te spelen.

Tevergeefs, want zijn enorme verschot werd gevolgd door een enkel groeiende verbazing, ongeloof en desoriëntatie toen de boot begon te kantelen.

De bundel licht, afkomstig van de mast van de boot, zwierde doorheen het donker en kwam te schijnen op een gigantische rots in het midden van de zee die werd bezeten door een oogverblindende glinstergroene schijn.

Uit het donker kwam het monnikshoofd, dat nog steeds in volle vlucht was, in het vizier van de lichtbundel en plaatste zich exact tussen de glinstergroene verschijning en Joris waarbij Joris doorheen het monnikshoofd gezegend werd met het zicht op een pracht van een zeemeermin die uitnodigend poseerde op de rots.

Met een luide plons viel Joris achterover in het water toen hij zich realiseerde dat vrouwen zichzelf ook lieten vangen door lust en hun uiterlijke opmaakcompetities en met een dankbare glimlach zonk hij naar de bodem van de zee en was opnieuw geboren.

@ fd208ee8:0fd927c1

E-cash are coupons or tokens for Bitcoin, or Bitcoin debt notes that the mint issues. The e-cash states, essentially, "IoU 2900 sats".

They're redeemable for Bitcoin on Lightning (hard money), and therefore can be used as cash (softer money), so long as the mint has a good reputation. That means that they're less fungible than Lightning because the e-cash from one mint can be more or less valuable than the e-cash from another. If a mint is buggy, offline, or disappears, then the e-cash is unreedemable.

It also means that e-cash is more anonymous than Lightning, and that the sender and receiver's wallets don't need to be online, to transact. Nutzaps now add the possibility of parking transactions one level farther out, on a relay. The same relays that cannot keep npub profiles and follow lists consistent will now do monetary transactions.

What we then have is * a transaction on a relay that triggers * a transaction on a mint that triggers * a transaction on Lightning that triggers * a transaction on Bitcoin.

Which means that every relay that stores the nuts is part of a wildcat banking system. Which is fine, but relay operators should consider whether they wish to carry the associated risks and liabilities. They should also be aware that they should implement the appropriate features in their relay, such as expiration tags (nuts rot after 2 weeks), and to make sure that only expired nuts are deleted.

There will be plenty of specialized relays for this, so don't feel pressured to join in, and research the topic carefully, for yourself.

https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/60.md https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/61.md

@ e3ba5e1a:5e433365

My favorite line in any Marvel movie ever is in “Captain America.” After Captain America launches seemingly a hopeless assault on Red Skull’s base and is captured, we get this line:

“Arrogance may not be a uniquely American trait, but I must say, you do it better than anyone.”

Yesterday, I came across a comment on the song Devil Went Down to Georgia that had a very similar feel to it:

America has seemingly always been arrogant, in a uniquely American way. Manifest Destiny, for instance. The rest of the world is aware of this arrogance, and mocks Americans for it. A central point in modern US politics is the deriding of racist, nationalist, supremacist Americans.

That’s not what I see. I see American Arrogance as not only a beautiful statement about what it means to be American. I see it as an ode to the greatness of humanity in its purest form.

For most countries, saying “our nation is the greatest” is, in fact, twinged with some level of racism. I still don’t have a problem with it. Every group of people should be allowed to feel pride in their accomplishments. The destruction of the human spirit since the end of World War 2, where greatness has become a sin and weakness a virtue, has crushed the ability of people worldwide to strive for excellence.

But I digress. The fears of racism and nationalism at least have a grain of truth when applied to other nations on the planet. But not to America.

That’s because the definition of America, and the prototype of an American, has nothing to do with race. The definition of Americanism is freedom. The founding of America is based purely on liberty. On the God-given rights of every person to live life the way they see fit.

American Arrogance is not a statement of racial superiority. It’s barely a statement of national superiority (though it absolutely is). To me, when an American comments on the greatness of America, it’s a statement about freedom. Freedom will always unlock the greatness inherent in any group of people. Americans are definitionally better than everyone else, because Americans are freer than everyone else. (Or, at least, that’s how it should be.)

In Devil Went Down to Georgia, Johnny is approached by the devil himself. He is challenged to a ridiculously lopsided bet: a golden fiddle versus his immortal soul. He acknowledges the sin in accepting such a proposal. And yet he says, “God, I know you told me not to do this. But I can’t stand the affront to my honor. I am the greatest. The devil has nothing on me. So God, I’m gonna sin, but I’m also gonna win.”

Libertas magnitudo est

@ 94a6a78a:0ddf320e

Azzamo is more than just a relay provider—it’s a high-performance network designed to make Nostr faster, smoother, and more reliable for everyone. Whether you're posting notes, zapping sats, sharing media, or sending DMs, Azzamo keeps your Nostr experience seamless and efficient.

Nostr is unstoppable, but not all relays are the same. Some are slow, unreliable, or disappear overnight, while others get overloaded, making message delivery inconsistent. Azzamo is built differently—offering fast, stable, and globally distributed relays to ensure low-latency, high-speed connections, no matter where you are.

---

🌍 Premium Relays for Maximum Performance

Azzamo Premium Relays are optimized for speed, reliability, and uptime, available exclusively to Premium users:

📡 Azzamo Premium Relays:

• Europe: wss://relay.azzamo.net
• America: wss://us.azzamo.net
• Asia: wss://asia.azzamo.net

Add Azzamo Premium Time to unlock unlimited, high-speed access across these global relays.

🔗 Get Premium: azzamo.net/premium

---

🆓 Freemium Relays – Free for Everyone

Azzamo believes in keeping Nostr open and accessible to all. That’s why we offer free relays for everyone, with no rate limits for Premium members

📡 Freemium Relays:

• Free Relay: wss://nostr.azzamo.net – Open to all.
• Inbox Relay: wss://inbox.azzamo.net – Reliable for DMs & group messages.

By offering both free and premium options, Azzamo ensures that anyone can use Nostr, while also funding the infrastructure that keeps it running smoothly.

---

🛡️ Minimal Moderation, Maximum Transparency

Nostr is about free speech, but that doesn’t mean zero moderation. Azzamo follows a minimal moderation policy to keep relays functional and spam-free while maintaining transparency in enforcement.\ \ 🚫 Spam & network abuse\ 🚫 Illegal content (CSAM, fraud, malware, scams)\ 🚫 Impersonation & identity abuse

We also maintain a public Ban API for transparent moderation decisions.

📖 More on our Ban API: azzamo.net/introducing-the-azzamo-ban-api

---

🚀 Get Started with Azzamo Relays Today!

🔗 Connect now:\ 📡 wss://nostr.azzamo.net (Freemium Free Relay)\ 📬 wss://inbox.azzamo.net (Freemium Inbox Relay)\ 📡 wss://relay.azzamo.net (Premium Europe Relay)\ 📡 wss://us.azzamo.net (Premium Americas Relay)\ 📡 wss://asia.azzamo.net (Premium Asia Relay)

Nostr is growing fast. Make sure your relays can keep up. 🚀

azzamo #grownostr #nostr #relay #relays #premiumrelay #paidrelay

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Zonneschijn\ Stralen, lachen, zo fijn\ Moge de wereld dankbaar zijn

De vrouw, mijn gevoeligheid\ Bron van creativiteit

Genietend niets doen in het gras\ Met wat brood en wat wijn in het glas

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Spontaniteit\ Creativiteit

Iets visueel of gewoon geluid\ Het moet eruit

Ik doe mezelf cadeau aan jou\ Omdat ik van het leven hou

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Veroorzaakt door de wereld rond mij\ Vormen de wereld in mij

Verwaarloosd door de wereld rond mij\ Overgelaten aan mij

Een groene brug komt uit mij\ Verbindt mij met wij\ En laat ons samen vrij

@ daa41bed:88f54153

There has been a good bit of discussion on Nostr over the past few days about the merits of zaps as a method of engaging with notes, so after writing a rather lengthy article on the pros of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, I wanted to take some time to chime in on the much more fun topic of digital engagement.

Let's begin by defining a couple of things:

Nostr is a decentralized, censorship-resistance protocol whose current biggest use case is social media (think Twitter/X). Instead of relying on company servers, it relies on relays that anyone can spin up and own their own content. Its use cases are much bigger, though, and this article is hosted on my own relay, using my own Nostr relay as an example.

Zap is a tip or donation denominated in sats (small units of Bitcoin) sent from one user to another. This is generally done directly over the Lightning Network but is increasingly using Cashu tokens. For the sake of this discussion, how you transmit/receive zaps will be irrelevant, so don't worry if you don't know what Lightning or Cashu are.

If we look at how users engage with posts and follows/followers on platforms like Twitter, Facebook, etc., it becomes evident that traditional social media thrives on engagement farming. The more outrageous a post, the more likely it will get a reaction. We see a version of this on more visual social platforms like YouTube and TikTok that use carefully crafted thumbnail images to grab the user's attention to click the video. If you'd like to dive deep into the psychology and science behind social media engagement, let me know, and I'd be happy to follow up with another article.

In this user engagement model, a user is given the option to comment or like the original post, or share it among their followers to increase its signal. They receive no value from engaging with the content aside from the dopamine hit of the original experience or having their comment liked back by whatever influencer they provide value to. Ad revenue flows to the content creator. Clout flows to the content creator. Sales revenue from merch and content placement flows to the content creator. We call this a linear economy -- the idea that resources get created, used up, then thrown away. Users create content and farm as much engagement as possible, then the content is forgotten within a few hours as they move on to the next piece of content to be farmed.

What if there were a simple way to give value back to those who engage with your content? By implementing some value-for-value model -- a circular economy. Enter zaps.

Unlike traditional social media platforms, Nostr does not actively use algorithms to determine what content is popular, nor does it push content created for active user engagement to the top of a user's timeline. Yes, there are "trending" and "most zapped" timelines that users can choose to use as their default, but these use relatively straightforward engagement metrics to rank posts for these timelines.

That is not to say that we may not see clients actively seeking to refine timeline algorithms for specific metrics. Still, the beauty of having an open protocol with media that is controlled solely by its users is that users who begin to see their timeline gamed towards specific algorithms can choose to move to another client, and for those who are more tech-savvy, they can opt to run their own relays or create their own clients with personalized algorithms and web of trust scoring systems.

Zaps enable the means to create a new type of social media economy in which creators can earn for creating content and users can earn by actively engaging with it. Like and reposting content is relatively frictionless and costs nothing but a simple button tap. Zaps provide active engagement because they signal to your followers and those of the content creator that this post has genuine value, quite literally in the form of money—sats.

I have seen some comments on Nostr claiming that removing likes and reactions is for wealthy people who can afford to send zaps and that the majority of people in the US and around the world do not have the time or money to zap because they have better things to spend their money like feeding their families and paying their bills. While at face value, these may seem like valid arguments, they, unfortunately, represent the brainwashed, defeatist attitude that our current economic (and, by extension, social media) systems aim to instill in all of us to continue extracting value from our lives.

Imagine now, if those people dedicating their own time (time = money) to mine pity points on social media would instead spend that time with genuine value creation by posting content that is meaningful to cultural discussions. Imagine if, instead of complaining that their posts get no zaps and going on a tirade about how much of a victim they are, they would empower themselves to take control of their content and give value back to the world; where would that leave us? How much value could be created on a nascent platform such as Nostr, and how quickly could it overtake other platforms?

Other users argue about user experience and that additional friction (i.e., zaps) leads to lower engagement, as proven by decades of studies on user interaction. While the added friction may turn some users away, does that necessarily provide less value? I argue quite the opposite. You haven't made a few sats from zaps with your content? Can't afford to send some sats to a wallet for zapping? How about using the most excellent available resource and spending 10 seconds of your time to leave a comment? Likes and reactions are valueless transactions. Social media's real value derives from providing monetary compensation and actively engaging in a conversation with posts you find interesting or thought-provoking. Remember when humans thrived on conversation and discussion for entertainment instead of simply being an onlooker of someone else's life?

If you've made it this far, my only request is this: try only zapping and commenting as a method of engagement for two weeks. Sure, you may end up liking a post here and there, but be more mindful of how you interact with the world and break yourself from blind instinct. You'll thank me later.

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

In een zee van mogelijkheden\ Kunnen we best veel tijd aan dromen besteden

Dromen is een universele taal\ Het wordt gedaan door ons allemaal

Het is het woord\ Dat deze gelijkheid de grond in boort

@ 5627e59c:d484729e

Machtig water\ Door velen bemind

Element van beweging\ Vormgever aan land\ Bondgenoot van wind

Voorkomer van comfort\ Toelater van rust

Machtig water\ Waar ik ook ga\ Ik weet dat jij de grond onder mijn voeten kust

@ e3ba5e1a:5e433365

I got into a friendly discussion on X regarding health insurance. The specific question was how to deal with health insurance companies (presumably unfairly) denying claims? My answer, as usual: get government out of it!

The US healthcare system is essentially the worst of both worlds:

• Unlike full single payer, individuals incur high costs
• Unlike a true free market, regulation causes increases in costs and decreases competition among insurers

I'm firmly on the side of moving towards the free market. (And I say that as someone living under a single payer system now.) Here's what I would do:

• Get rid of tax incentives that make health insurance tied to your employer, giving individuals back proper freedom of choice.
• Reduce regulations significantly.

• In the short term, some people will still get rejected claims and other obnoxious behavior from insurance companies. We address that in two ways:

  1. Due to reduced regulations, new insurance companies will be able to enter the market offering more reliable coverage and better rates, and people will flock to them because they have the freedom to make their own choices.
  2. Sue the asses off of companies that reject claims unfairly. And ideally, as one of the few legitimate roles of government in all this, institute new laws that limit the ability of fine print to allow insurers to escape their responsibilities. (I'm hesitant that the latter will happen due to the incestuous relationship between Congress/regulators and insurers, but I can hope.)

Will this magically fix everything overnight like politicians normally promise? No. But it will allow the market to return to a healthy state. And I don't think it will take long (order of magnitude: 5-10 years) for it to come together, but that's just speculation.

And since there's a high correlation between those who believe government can fix problems by taking more control and demanding that only credentialed experts weigh in on a topic (both points I strongly disagree with BTW): I'm a trained actuary and worked in the insurance industry, and have directly seen how government regulation reduces competition, raises prices, and harms consumers.

And my final point: I don't think any prior art would be a good comparison for deregulation in the US, it's such a different market than any other country in the world for so many reasons that lessons wouldn't really translate. Nonetheless, I asked Grok for some empirical data on this, and at best the results of deregulation could be called "mixed," but likely more accurately "uncertain, confused, and subject to whatever interpretation anyone wants to apply."

https://x.com/i/grok/share/Zc8yOdrN8lS275hXJ92uwq98M

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Evertz Pharma Becomes First German Company With Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Adds 100 BTC to Treasury 

Evertz Pharma GmbH, a company focusing on premium natural cosmetics, has become Germany’s first company to adopt a strategic Bitcoin reserve model by purchasing an additional 100 BTC in May 2025—valued at approximately €10 million (~$10.8 million USD), according to a press release. 

The adoption marks a continued expansion of the company’s BTC treasury, which began in December 2020 with an initial €2 million Bitcoin purchase. Since then, Evertz Pharma has regularly allocated corporate profits toward Bitcoin, building a digital reserve aimed at long term stability. 

“Our mission is to promote natural beauty on a scientific foundation,” said Dominik Evertz, Managing Director of Evertz Pharma GmbH. “The same future-focused mindset shapes our financial strategy: Bitcoin, as a scarce and globally tradable asset, complements our reserves and strengthens the long-term resilience of our company.”

The company’s latest acquisition of 100 BTC distinguishes it from industry peers and traditional treasury strategies. Tobias Evertz, Group CFO stated, “We will continue to invest corporate profits in Bitcoin and are constantly evaluating additional ways to increase our holdings sustainably.” 

Unlike publicly traded Bitcoin adopters such as Strategy or Metaplanet, Evertz Pharma operates as a privately held German enterprise. 

“Bitcoin is not just an investment for us but a strategic asset that perfectly complements our vision of stability and future resilience. At the same time, we are aligning our financial strategy with the needs of a modern, sustainably operating company,” added Dominik Evertz. 

Everetz explains that Bitcoin is a store of value, a hedge against inflation, and a means to diversify reserves. It allows Evertz Pharma to preserve capital without the storage burdens that come with traditional assets like gold. The company’s treasury strategy shows their commitment to financial sustainability. 

This post Evertz Pharma Becomes First German Company With Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, Adds 100 BTC to Treasury  first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Jenna Montgomery.

@ e3ba5e1a:5e433365

President Trump has started rolling out his tariffs, something I blogged about in November. People are talking about these tariffs a lot right now, with many people (correctly) commenting on how consumers will end up with higher prices as a result of these tariffs. While that part is true, I’ve seen a lot of people taking it to the next, incorrect step: that consumers will pay the entirety of the tax. I put up a poll on X to see what people thought, and while the right answer got a lot of votes, it wasn't the winner.

For purposes of this blog post, our ultimate question will be the following:

• Suppose apples currently sell for $1 each in the entire United States.
• There are domestic sellers and foreign sellers of apples, all receiving the same price.
• There are no taxes or tariffs on the purchase of apples.
• The question is: if the US federal government puts a $0.50 import tariff per apple, what will be the change in the following:
• Number of apples bought in the US
• Price paid by buyers for apples in the US
• Post-tax price received by domestic apple producers
• Post-tax price received by foreign apple producers

Before we can answer that question, we need to ask an easier, first question: before instituting the tariff, why do apples cost $1?

And finally, before we dive into the details, let me provide you with the answers to the ultimate question. I recommend you try to guess these answers before reading this, and if you get it wrong, try to understand why:

1. The number of apples bought will go down
2. The buyers will pay more for each apple they buy, but not the full amount of the tariff
3. Domestic apple sellers will receive a higher price per apple
4. Foreign apple sellers will receive a lower price per apple, but not lowered by the full amount of the tariff

In other words, regardless of who sends the payment to the government, both taxed parties (domestic buyers and foreign sellers) will absorb some of the costs of the tariff, while domestic sellers will benefit from the protectionism provided by tariffs and be able to sell at a higher price per unit.

Marginal benefit

All of the numbers discussed below are part of a helper Google Sheet I put together for this analysis. Also, apologies about the jagged lines in the charts below, I hadn’t realized before starting on this that there are some difficulties with creating supply and demand charts in Google Sheets.

Let’s say I absolutely love apples, they’re my favorite food. How much would I be willing to pay for a single apple? You might say “$1, that’s the price in the supermarket,” and in many ways you’d be right. If I walk into supermarket A, see apples on sale for $50, and know that I can buy them at supermarket B for $1, I’ll almost certainly leave A and go buy at B.

But that’s not what I mean. What I mean is: how high would the price of apples have to go everywhere so that I’d no longer be willing to buy a single apple? This is a purely personal, subjective opinion. It’s impacted by how much money I have available, other expenses I need to cover, and how much I like apples. But let’s say the number is $5.

How much would I be willing to pay for another apple? Maybe another $5. But how much am I willing to pay for the 1,000th apple? 10,000th? At some point, I’ll get sick of apples, or run out of space to keep the apples, or not be able to eat, cook, and otherwise preserve all those apples before they rot.

The point being: I’ll be progressively willing to spend less and less money for each apple. This form of analysis is called marginal benefit: how much benefit (expressed as dollars I’m willing to spend) will I receive from each apple? This is a downward sloping function: for each additional apple I buy (quantity demanded), the price I’m willing to pay goes down. This is what gives my personal demand curve. And if we aggregate demand curves across all market participants (meaning: everyone interested in buying apples), we end up with something like this:

Assuming no changes in people’s behavior and other conditions in the market, this chart tells us how many apples will be purchased by our buyers at each price point between $0.50 and $5. And ceteris paribus (all else being equal), this will continue to be the demand curve for apples.

Marginal cost

Demand is half the story of economics. The other half is supply, or: how many apples will I sell at each price point? Supply curves are upward sloping: the higher the price, the more a person or company is willing and able to sell a product.

Let’s understand why. Suppose I have an apple orchard. It’s a large property right next to my house. With about 2 minutes of effort, I can walk out of my house, find the nearest tree, pick 5 apples off the tree, and call it a day. 5 apples for 2 minutes of effort is pretty good, right?

Yes, there was all the effort necessary to buy the land, and plant the trees, and water them… and a bunch more than I likely can’t even guess at. We’re going to ignore all of that for our analysis, because for short-term supply-and-demand movement, we can ignore these kinds of sunk costs. One other simplification: in reality, supply curves often start descending before ascending. This accounts for achieving efficiencies of scale after the first number of units purchased. But since both these topics are unneeded for understanding taxes, I won’t go any further.

Anyway, back to my apple orchard. If someone offers me $0.50 per apple, I can do 2 minutes of effort and get $2.50 in revenue, which equates to a $75/hour wage for me. I’m more than happy to pick apples at that price!

However, let’s say someone comes to buy 10,000 apples from me instead. I no longer just walk out to my nearest tree. I’m going to need to get in my truck, drive around, spend the day in the sun, pay for gas, take a day off of my day job (let’s say it pays me $70/hour). The costs go up significantly. Let’s say it takes 5 days to harvest all those apples myself, it costs me $100 in fuel and other expenses, and I lose out on my $70/hour job for 5 days. We end up with:

• Total expenditure: $100 + $70 * 8 hours a day * 5 days \== $2900
• Total revenue: $5000 (10,000 apples at $0.50 each)
• Total profit: $2100

So I’m still willing to sell the apples at this price, but it’s not as attractive as before. And as the number of apples purchased goes up, my costs keep increasing. I’ll need to spend more money on fuel to travel more of my property. At some point I won’t be able to do the work myself anymore, so I’ll need to pay others to work on the farm, and they’ll be slower at picking apples than me (less familiar with the property, less direct motivation, etc.). The point being: at some point, the number of apples can go high enough that the $0.50 price point no longer makes me any money.

This kind of analysis is called marginal cost. It refers to the additional amount of expenditure a seller has to spend in order to produce each additional unit of the good. Marginal costs go up as quantity sold goes up. And like demand curves, if you aggregate this data across all sellers, you get a supply curve like this:

Equilibrium price

We now know, for every price point, how many apples buyers will purchase, and how many apples sellers will sell. Now we find the equilibrium: where the supply and demand curves meet. This point represents where the marginal benefit a buyer would receive from the next buyer would be less than the cost it would take the next seller to make it. Let’s see it in a chart:

You’ll notice that these two graphs cross at the $1 price point, where 63 apples are both demanded (bought by consumers) and supplied (sold by producers). This is our equilibrium price. We also have a visualization of the surplus created by these trades. Everything to the left of the equilibrium point and between the supply and demand curves represents surplus: an area where someone is receiving something of more value than they give. For example:

• When I bought my first apple for $1, but I was willing to spend $5, I made $4 of consumer surplus. The consumer portion of the surplus is everything to the left of the equilibrium point, between the supply and demand curves, and above the equilibrium price point.
• When a seller sells his first apple for $1, but it only cost $0.50 to produce it, the seller made $0.50 of producer surplus. The producer portion of the surplus is everything to the left of the equilibrium point, between the supply and demand curves, and below the equilibrium price point.

Another way of thinking of surplus is “every time someone got a better price than they would have been willing to take.”

OK, with this in place, we now have enough information to figure out how to price in the tariff, which we’ll treat as a negative externality.

Modeling taxes

Alright, the government has now instituted a $0.50 tariff on every apple sold within the US by a foreign producer. We can generally model taxes by either increasing the marginal cost of each unit sold (shifting the supply curve up), or by decreasing the marginal benefit of each unit bought (shifting the demand curve down). In this case, since only some of the producers will pay the tax, it makes more sense to modify the supply curve.

First, let’s see what happens to the foreign seller-only supply curve when you add in the tariff:

With the tariff in place, for each quantity level, the price at which the seller will sell is $0.50 higher than before the tariff. That makes sense: if I was previously willing to sell my 82nd apple for $3, I would now need to charge $3.50 for that apple to cover the cost of the tariff. We see this as the tariff “pushing up” or “pushing left” the original supply curve.

We can add this new supply curve to our existing (unchanged) supply curve for domestic-only sellers, and we end up with a result like this:

The total supply curve adds up the individual foreign and domestic supply curves. At each price point, we add up the total quantity each group would be willing to sell to determine the total quantity supplied for each price point. Once we have that cumulative supply curve defined, we can produce an updated supply-and-demand chart including the tariff:

As we can see, the equilibrium has shifted:

• The equilibrium price paid by consumers has risen from $1 to $1.20.
• The total number of apples purchased has dropped from 63 apples to 60 apples.
• Consumers therefore received 3 less apples. They spent $72 for these 60 apples, whereas previously they spent $63 for 3 more apples, a definite decrease in consumer surplus.
• Foreign producers sold 36 of those apples (see the raw data in the linked Google Sheet), for a gross revenue of $43.20. However, they also need to pay the tariff to the US government, which accounts for $18, meaning they only receive $25.20 post-tariff. Previously, they sold 42 apples at $1 each with no tariff to be paid, meaning they took home $42.
• Domestic producers sold the remaining 24 apples at $1.20, giving them a revenue of $28.80. Since they don’t pay the tariff, they take home all of that money. By contrast, previously, they sold 21 apples at $1, for a take-home of $21.
• The government receives $0.50 for each of the 60 apples sold, or in other words receives $30 in revenue it wouldn’t have received otherwise.

We could be more specific about the surpluses, and calculate the actual areas for consumer surplus, producer surplus, inefficiency from the tariff, and government revenue from the tariff. But I won’t bother, as those calculations get slightly more involved. Instead, let’s just look at the aggregate outcomes:

• Consumers were unquestionably hurt. Their price paid went up by $0.20 per apple, and received less apples.
• Foreign producers were also hurt. Their price received went down from the original $1 to the new post-tariff price of $1.20, minus the $0.50 tariff. In other words: foreign producers only receive $0.70 per apple now. This hurt can be mitigated by shifting sales to other countries without a tariff, but the pain will exist regardless.
• Domestic producers scored. They can sell less apples and make more revenue doing it.
• And the government walked away with an extra $30.

Hopefully you now see the answer to the original questions. Importantly, while the government imposed a $0.50 tariff, neither side fully absorbed that cost. Consumers paid a bit more, foreign producers received a bit less. The exact details of how that tariff was split across the groups is mediated by the relevant supply and demand curves of each group. If you want to learn more about this, the relevant search term is “price elasticity,” or how much a group’s quantity supplied or demanded will change based on changes in the price.

Other taxes

Most taxes are some kind of a tax on trade. Tariffs on apples is an obvious one. But the same applies to income tax (taxing the worker for the trade of labor for money) or payroll tax (same thing, just taxing the employer instead). Interestingly, you can use the same model for analyzing things like tax incentives. For example, if the government decided to subsidize domestic apple production by giving the domestic producers a $0.50 bonus for each apple they sell, we would end up with a similar kind of analysis, except instead of the foreign supply curve shifting up, we’d see the domestic supply curve shifting down.

And generally speaking, this is what you’ll always see with government involvement in the economy. It will result in disrupting an existing equilibrium, letting the market readjust to a new equilibrium, and incentivization of some behavior, causing some people to benefit and others to lose out. We saw with the apple tariff, domestic producers and the government benefited while others lost.

You can see the reverse though with tax incentives. If I give a tax incentive of providing a deduction (not paying income tax) for preschool, we would end up with:

• Government needs to make up the difference in tax revenue, either by raising taxes on others or printing more money (leading to inflation). Either way, those paying the tax or those holding government debased currency will pay a price.
• Those people who don’t use the preschool deduction will receive no benefit, so they simply pay a cost.
• Those who do use the preschool deduction will end up paying less on tax+preschool than they would have otherwise.

This analysis is fully amoral. It’s not saying whether providing subsidized preschool is a good thing or not, it simply tells you where the costs will be felt, and points out that such government interference in free economic choice does result in inefficiencies in the system. Once you have that knowledge, you’re more well educated on making a decision about whether the costs of government intervention are worth the benefits.

@ 9e69e420:d12360c2

Federal employees must remove pronouns from email signatures by the end of the day. This directive comes from internal memos tied to two executive orders signed by Donald Trump. The orders target diversity and equity programs within the government.

CDC, Department of Transportation, and Department of Energy employees were affected. Staff were instructed to make changes in line with revised policy prohibiting certain language.

One CDC employee shared frustration, stating, “In my decade-plus years at CDC, I've never been told what I can and can't put in my email signature.” The directive is part of a broader effort to eliminate DEI initiatives from federal discourse.

@ 0403c86a:66d3a378

The Club World Cup 2025 is set to be a spectacular global football event, debuting in the USA from June 14 to July 13, 2025. This new format brings together 32 top club teams from all six FIFA confederations, showcasing the best of world club football in a month-long tournament.

---

🏆 Tournament Basics

• Dates: June 14 – July 13, 2025
• Host: United States of America
• Number of Teams: 32 clubs
• Confederations Represented: AFC (Asia), CAF (Africa), Concacaf (North & Central America), CONMEBOL (South America), OFC (Oceania), UEFA (Europe)
• Format:
• Group Stage: 8 groups of 4 teams, single round-robin
• Top 2 teams per group advance to Round of 16 knockout
• Single-match knockout from Round of 16 to Final
• No third-place playoff

---

🏟️ Venues Across the USA

The tournament will be played in 12 stadiums across major US cities:

• MetLife Stadium – New York/New Jersey (Final venue)
• Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL (Opening match venue)
• Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA
• TQL Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
• Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC
• Rose Bowl Stadium – Los Angeles, CA
• GEODIS Park – Nashville, TN
• Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL
• Inter&Co Stadium – Orlando, FL
• Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
• Lumen Field – Seattle, WA
• Audi Field – Washington, D.C.

---

👥 Group stage

Group A

SE Palmeiras (BRA) FC Porto (POR) Al Ahly FC (EGY) Inter Miami CF (USA)

Group B

Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) Atlético de Madrid (ESP) Botafogo (BRA) Seattle Sounders FC (USA)

Group C

FC Bayern München (GER) Auckland City FC (NZL) CA Boca Juniors (ARG) SL Benfica (POR)

Group D

CR Flamengo (BRA) Espérance Sportive de Tunis (TUN) Chelsea FC (ENG) LA Galaxy (USA)

Group E

CA River Plate (ARG) Urawa Red Diamonds (JPN) CF Monterrey (MEX) FC Internazionale Milano (ITA)

Group F

Fluminense FC (BRA) Borussia Dortmund (GER) Ulsan HD (KOR) Mamelodi Sundowns FC (RSA)

Group G

Manchester City (ENG) Wydad AC (MAR) Al Ain FC (UAE) Juventus FC (ITA)

Group H

Real Madrid C. F. (ESP) Al Hilal (KSA) CF Pachuca (MEX) FC Salzburg (AUT)

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⚽ Key Highlights

🏆✨ Paris Saint-Germain leads the power rankings as the favorites, fresh off a treble-winning season! Can they maintain their dominance against the world's best? #PSG

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⚡️🔥 Watch out for Real Madrid! After a trophy-less season, they’re eager to prove their worth under new manager Xabi Alonso. Will they reclaim their glory? #RealMadrid

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💪🌟 Manchester City is back in the mix! Despite a rocky season, they showed resilience in the final weeks. Can Pep Guardiola's squad rise to the occasion? #ManCity

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💰🏅 With a staggering $1 billion prize pool, the stakes are high! Teams will battle not just for glory, but for a significant financial reward. Who will take home the biggest share? #PrizeMoney

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🌟⚽️ Keep an eye on the underdogs! Teams from the Americas, Africa and Asia ready to challenge the European giants. Who could pull off a surprise upset? #Underdogs

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🏅 Trophy & Official Match Ball

• The official Club World Cup Trophy was unveiled in November 2024, designed in collaboration with Tiffany & Co.
• The official match ball is supplied by adidas, featuring a patriotic design with red, white, and blue jagged patterns inspired by the US flag.

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🎟️ Tickets & Viewing

• Ticket sales began on December 19, 2024, with prices starting at USD 30 for group-stage matches.
• Tickets available via FIFA on a first-come, first-served basis.
• Broadcast: DAZN is the exclusive global broadcaster, streaming all 63 matches live worldwide.

---

💸 Club World Cup Winner ODDS

🥇 Real Madrid @ 5.00

🥈 Paris Saint-Germain @ 6.00 🥈 Manchester City @ 6.00

🥉 Bayern Munchen @ 8.00

🐕 Chelsea FC @ 11.00

🐩 Atletico Madrid @ 15.00 🐩 Inter Milano @ 15.00

🐶 Borussia Dortmund @ 25.00 🐶 Juventus @ 25.00

🌭 CR Flamengo @ 35.00 🌭 SE Palmeiras @ 35.00

🦴 CA River Plate @ 40.00 🦴 SL Benfica @ 40.00 🦴 Boca Juniors @ 40.00 🦴 FC Porto @ 40.00

🦓 Botafogo FR @ 55.00 🦓 Fluminense FC @ 55.00

🤏 Inter Miami CF @ 70.00 🤏 AL Hilal Riyadh @ 70.00

💫 FC Salzburg @ 85.00 💫 Los Angeles FC @ 85.00

💦 Seattle Sounders @ 100.0

💧 Al Ahly Cairo @ 125.0

💨 CF Pachuca @ 150.0

🌬️ Ulsan HD FC @ 200.0 🌬️ Al Ain FC @ 200.0

🐾 Urawa Red Diamonds @ 250.0 🐾 CF Monterrey @ 250.0

🕳️ Wac Casablanca @ 500.0 🕳️ Mamelodi Sundowns @ 500.0 🕳️ Esperance Sportive de Tunis @ 500.0

🙏 Auckland City FC @ 999.0

Put Your ₿itcoin Where Your Heart Is: Predyx the 🏆

@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

I often hear "bitcoin doesn't interest me, I'm not a finance person."

Ironically, the beauty of sound money is you don't have to be. In the current system you're expected to manage a diversified investment portfolio or pay someone to do it. Bitcoin will make that optional.

— ODELL (@ODELL) September 16, 2018

At first glance bitcoin often appears overwhelming to newcomers. It is incredibly easy to get bogged down in the details of how it works or different ways to use it. Enthusiasts, such as myself, often enjoy going down the deep rabbit hole of the potential of bitcoin, possible pitfalls and theoretical scenarios, power user techniques, and the developer ecosystem. If your first touch point with bitcoin is that type of content then it is only natural to be overwhelmed. While it is important that we have a thriving community of bitcoiners dedicated to these complicated tasks - the true beauty of bitcoin lies in its simplicity. Bitcoin is simply better money. It is the best money we have ever had.

Life is complicated. Life is hard. Life is full of responsibility and surprises. Bitcoin allows us to focus on our lives while relying on a money that is simple. A money that is not controlled by any individual, company, or government. A money that cannot be easily seized or blocked. A money that cannot be devalued at will by a handful of corrupt bureaucrat who live hundreds of miles from us. A money that can be easily saved and should increase in purchasing power over time without having to learn how to "build a diversified stock portfolio" or hire someone to do it for us.

Bitcoin enables all of us to focus on our lives - our friends and family - doing what we love with the short time we have on this earth. Time is scarce. Life is complicated. Bitcoin is the most simple aspect of our complicated lives. If we spend our scarce time working then we should be able to easily save that accrued value for future generations without watching the news or understanding complicated financial markets. Bitcoin makes this possible for anyone.

Yesterday was Mother's Day. Raising a human is complicated. It is hard, it requires immense personal responsibility, it requires critical thinking, but mothers figure it out, because it is worth it. Using and saving bitcoin is simple -  simply install an app on your phone. Every mother can do it. Every person can do it.

Life is complicated. Life is beautiful. Bitcoin is simple.

---

If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 9e69e420:d12360c2

President Trump plans to withdraw 20,000 U.S. troops from Europe and expects European allies to contribute financially to the remaining military presence. Reported by ANSA, Trump aims to deliver this message to European leaders since taking office. A European diplomat noted, “the costs cannot be borne solely by American taxpayers.”

The Pentagon hasn't commented yet. Trump has previously sought lower troop levels in Europe and had ordered cuts during his first term. The U.S. currently maintains around 65,000 troops in Europe, with total forces reaching 100,000 since the Ukraine invasion. Trump's new approach may shift military focus to the Pacific amid growing concerns about China.

Sauce

@ 9e69e420:d12360c2

Oregano oil is a potent natural compound that offers numerous scientifically-supported health benefits.

Active Compounds

The oil's therapeutic properties stem from its key bioactive components: - Carvacrol and thymol (primary active compounds) - Polyphenols and other antioxidant

Antimicrobial Properties

Bacterial Protection The oil demonstrates powerful antibacterial effects, even against antibiotic-resistant strains like MRSA and other harmful bacteria. Studies show it effectively inactivates various pathogenic bacteria without developing resistance.

Antifungal Effects It effectively combats fungal infections, particularly Candida-related conditions like oral thrush, athlete's foot, and nail infections.

Digestive Health Benefits

Oregano oil supports digestive wellness by: - Promoting gastric juice secretion and enzyme production - Helping treat Small Intestinal Bacterial Overgrowth (SIBO) - Managing digestive discomfort, bloating, and IBS symptoms

Anti-inflammatory and Antioxidant Effects

The oil provides significant protective benefits through: - Powerful antioxidant activity that fights free radicals - Reduction of inflammatory markers in the body - Protection against oxidative stress-related conditions

Respiratory Support

It aids respiratory health by: - Loosening mucus and phlegm - Suppressing coughs and throat irritation - Supporting overall respiratory tract function

Additional Benefits

Skin Health - Improves conditions like psoriasis, acne, and eczema - Supports wound healing through antibacterial action - Provides anti-aging benefits through antioxidant properties

Cardiovascular Health Studies show oregano oil may help: - Reduce LDL (bad) cholesterol levels - Support overall heart health

Pain Management The oil demonstrates effectiveness in: - Reducing inflammation-related pain - Managing muscle discomfort - Providing topical pain relief

Safety Note

While oregano oil is generally safe, it's highly concentrated and should be properly diluted before use Consult a healthcare provider before starting supplementation, especially if taking other medications.

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

Over 40 experts from the Bitcoin technical community sign a petition for the adoption of CTV and CSFS opcodes within six months.

A portion of the Bitcoin developer community appears to have reached consensus regarding the next protocol upgrade. An open letter signed by over 40 experts requests the priority implementation of two opcodes: OP_CHECKTEMPLATEVERIFY (CTV, BIP-119) and OP_CHECKSIGFROMSTACK (CSFS, BIP-348).

The developers believe that activating CTV and CSFS constitutes the most appropriate next step for Bitcoin’s evolution. The letter emphasizes how, despite the existence of various proposals to improve the protocol, CTV and CSFS stand out for being extensively reviewed, for their implementation simplicity, and for proving to be both secure and widely requested by the community.

CTV: five years of development and refinement

OP_CHECKTEMPLATEVERIFY was first formalized in BIP-119 over five years ago. Despite numerous attempts at refinement or replacement, it remains the preferred method for enforcing pre-generated transaction sequences using consensus, the developers state.

According to the letter’s signatories, implementing CTV on Bitcoin would unlock functionality for:

• scaling solutions;
• secure vault systems;
• network congestion control;
• non-custodial mining;
• Discreet Log Contracts (DLC).

CSFS: eight years of proven experience

The developers declare that OP_CHECKSIGFROMSTACK is a primitive opcode, implemented on the open source Blockstream Elements platform for at least eight years. It does not represent a significant computational burden compared to Bitcoin’s most used opcode, OP_CHECKSIG, the document’s signatories state.

When combined with CTV, CSFS enables LN-symmetry, an improvement for Lightning Network. Additionally, it unlocks a variety of other use cases.

The letter’s signatories ask Bitcoin Core contributors to prioritize the review and integration of CTV and CSFS within the next six months. This timeline is considered appropriate to allow for rigorous final review and activation planning.

The letter was signed by over 40 figures from the Bitcoin community, including developers such as Andrew Poelstra, Calle, Christian Decker, and Robin Linus, along with representatives from industry companies such as Chun Wang from f2pool, representatives from Zeus, Luxor Mining, Mara Pool, and Cake Wallet.

The post Bitcoin developers call for implementation of CTV and CSFS: letter to the community appeared first on Atlas21.

@ b17fccdf:b7211155

The past 26 August, Tor introduced officially a proof-of-work (PoW) defense for onion services designed to prioritize verified network traffic as a deterrent against denial of service (DoS) attacks.

~ > This feature at the moment, is deactivate by default, so you need to follow these steps to activate this on a MiniBolt node:

• Make sure you have the latest version of Tor installed, at the time of writing this post, which is v0.4.8.6. Check your current version by typing

tor --version

Example of expected output:

Tor version 0.4.8.6. This build of Tor is covered by the GNU General Public License (https://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl-3.0.en.html) Tor is running on Linux with Libevent 2.1.12-stable, OpenSSL 3.0.9, Zlib 1.2.13, Liblzma 5.4.1, Libzstd N/A and Glibc 2.36 as libc. Tor compiled with GCC version 12.2.0

~ > If you have v0.4.8.X, you are OK, if not, type sudo apt update && sudo apt upgrade and confirm to update.

• Basic PoW support can be checked by running this command:

tor --list-modules

Expected output:

relay: yes dirauth: yes dircache: yes pow: **yes**

~ > If you have pow: yes, you are OK

• Now go to the torrc file of your MiniBolt and add the parameter to enable PoW for each hidden service added

sudo nano /etc/tor/torrc

Example:

```

Hidden Service BTC RPC Explorer

HiddenServiceDir /var/lib/tor/hidden_service_btcrpcexplorer/ HiddenServiceVersion 3 HiddenServicePoWDefensesEnabled 1 HiddenServicePort 80 127.0.0.1:3002 ```

~ > Bitcoin Core and LND use the Tor control port to automatically create the hidden service, requiring no action from the user. We have submitted a feature request in the official GitHub repositories to explore the need for the integration of Tor's PoW defense into the automatic creation process of the hidden service. You can follow them at the following links:

• Bitcoin Core: https://github.com/lightningnetwork/lnd/issues/8002
• LND: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/28499

---

More info:

• https://blog.torproject.org/introducing-proof-of-work-defense-for-onion-services/
• https://gitlab.torproject.org/tpo/onion-services/onion-support/-/wikis/Documentation/PoW-FAQ

---

Enjoy it MiniBolter! 💙

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

🌋 Ka ʻImi i ka Pono: Seeking What’s Right

A 7-Day Series on Sovereignty, Bitcoin, and the Soul of the Islands

> "Man is not free unless he wills to be free."\ > — Johann Gottlieb Fichte

Hawai‘i understands sovereignty. It always has.\ But it was taken — first with pen and politics, then with force and fiat.

Bitcoin offers something different:\ A way to reclaim sovereignty without violence.\ A tool for self-rule, not state rule.\ A system built not on empire, but on truth and time.

This week, I’ll be posting a 7-part series exploring this tension:\ Between the Hawai‘i that was, the system that is, and the future that might be — if we choose to build on bedrock instead of paper.

I don’t know if there’s a traditional Hawaiian word for a 7-day week — maybe there doesn’t need to be.\ Time moves differently on these islands.\ But for the next 7 days, I’ll mark each reflection as a kind of modern lā hoʻomanaʻo — a day of remembering, reckoning, and restoring.

This is personal. It’s philosophical. It’s also unfinished.

But that’s what sovereignty looks like:\ Not something given — something reclaimed.

Stay tuned. Stay akamai.\ 🟧\ — Andrew G. Stanton (aka akamaister)

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

The recent shutdown of TikTok in the United States due to a potential government ban serves as a stark reminder how fragile centralized platforms truly are under the surface. While these platforms offer convenience, a more polished user experience, and connectivity, they are ultimately beholden to governments, corporations, and other authorities. This makes them vulnerable to censorship, regulation, and outright bans. In contrast, Nostr represents a shift in how we approach online communication and content sharing. Built on the principles of decentralization and user choice, Nostr cannot be banned, because it is not a platform—it is a protocol.

PROTOCOLS, NOT PLATFORMS.

At the heart of Nostr's philosophy is user choice, a feature that fundamentally sets it apart from legacy platforms. In centralized systems, the user experience is dictated by a single person or governing entity. If the platform decides to filter, censor, or ban specific users or content, individuals are left with little action to rectify the situation. They must either accept the changes or abandon the platform entirely, often at the cost of losing their social connections, their data, and their identity.

What's happening with TikTok could never happen on Nostr. With Nostr, the dynamics are completely different. Because it is a protocol, not a platform, no single entity controls the ecosystem. Instead, the protocol enables a network of applications and relays that users can freely choose from. If a particular application or relay implements policies that a user disagrees with, such as censorship, filtering, or even government enforced banning, they are not trapped or abandoned. They have the freedom to move to another application or relay with minimal effort.

THIS IS POWERFUL.

Take, for example, the case of a relay that decides to censor specific content. On a legacy platform, this would result in frustration and a loss of access for users. On Nostr, however, users can simply connect to a different relay that does not impose such restrictions. Similarly, if an application introduces features or policies that users dislike, they can migrate to a different application that better suits their preferences, all while retaining their identity and social connections.

The same principles apply to government bans and censorship. A government can ban a specific application or even multiple applications, just as it can block one relay or several relays. China has implemented both tactics, yet Chinese users continue to exist and actively participate on Nostr, demonstrating Nostr's ability to resistant censorship.

How? Simply, it turns into a game of whack-a-mole. When one relay is censored, another quickly takes its place. When one application is banned, another emerges. Users can also bypass these obstacles by running their own relays and applications directly from their homes or personal devices, eliminating reliance on larger entities or organizations and ensuring continuous access.

AGAIN, THIS IS POWERUFL.

Nostr's open and decentralized design makes it resistant to the kinds of government intervention that led to TikTok's outages this weekend and potential future ban in the next 90 days. There is no central server to target, no company to regulate, and no single point of failure. (Insert your CEO jokes here). As long as there are individuals running relays and applications, users continue creating notes and sending zaps.

Platforms like TikTok can be silenced with the stroke of a pen, leaving millions of users disconnected and abandoned. Social communication should not be silenced so incredibly easily. No one should have that much power over social interactions.

Will we on-board a massive wave of TikTokers in the coming hours or days? I don't know.

TikTokers may not be ready for Nostr yet, and honestly, Nostr may not be ready for them either. The ecosystem still lacks the completely polished applications, tools, and services they’re accustomed to. This is where we say "we're still early". They may not be early adopters like the current Nostr user base. Until we bridge that gap, they’ll likely move to the next centralized platform, only to face another government ban or round of censorship in the future. But eventually, there will come a tipping point, a moment when they’ve had enough. When that time comes, I hope we’re prepared. If we’re not, we risk missing a tremendous opportunity to onboard people who genuinely need Nostr’s freedom.

Until then, to all of the Nostr developers out there, keep up the great work and keep building. Your hard work and determination is needed.

@ 79be667e:16f81798

I am here too\ In the same space like you

In the same situation I'm in\ It's a matter of positioning

I cannot leave this place I'm in\ It was brought about\ By what's been happening

So please don't look at me\ For what I can or cannot do for you\ But look at what is happening for me\ And what is happening for you

Let's communicate\ Not orchestrate

Because there's something I wish to do\ And there's a place I wish to go to

And I'm sure that there is too\ In your heart a fire\ Known by only you

So let us listen, look and see\ For what's true for you\ And what's true for me

That we may act upon what's here\ In order for us both to take a step\ In the direction we wish to steer

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

The Trump’s American Bitcoin Merges with Gryphon, Reports 215 BTC on Balance Sheet Since Launch

American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC), a newly formed private Bitcoin mining company backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., announced in a June 10 SEC filing that it has acquired 215 Bitcoin (BTC) since launching operations on April 1, 2025. The reserve is currently valued at approximately $23 million, showing their drive and commitment to Bitcoin. 

JUST IN: American Bitcoin Corp (private) reports to have 215 #bitcoin (per 31 May) since it's launch on April 1, 2025.

They will merge with Gryphon Digital $GRYP and become public under ticker $ABTC.

They mention "Bitcoin accumulation is not a side effect of ABTC’s business.… pic.twitter.com/wq1Uxr76Z2

— NLNico (@btcNLNico) June 10, 2025

“Bitcoin accumulation is not a side effect of ABTC’s business. It is the business,” the company stated in the filing.

Furthermore, ABTC has entered into a merger agreement with Gryphon Digital Mining ($GRYP), and the combined company is expected to begin public trading under the ticker $ABTC as early as Q3 2025. 

The company’s three-layer strategic plan—outlined in the SEC disclosure—details a focused approach:

Layer 1: Build the Engine

• ABTC’s foundation is built on “producing Bitcoin below-market cost through a capital efficient, infrastructure-light operating model.” The company owns and operates over 60,000 miners from Bitmain and MicroBt, running primarily on Hut 8-managed facilities.

Layer 2: Scale the Reserve

• ABTC had “accumulated approximately 215 Bitcoin in reserve since launching on April 1, 2025,” which it considers a long-term strategic asset. The firm states its goal is “to utilize public markets and strategic financing structures to access efficient capital and leverage that capital to increase its Bitcoin in reserve per share.”

Layer 3: Lead the Ecosystem 

• The company ultimately aims to use its operational scale and mining position to drive industry-wide adoption. “ABTC may pursue opportunities to support protocol development, enhance network infrastructure and contribute to Bitcoin’s resilience and adoption in ways that align with shareholder value creation.”

For mining rewards, ABTC uses Foundry and Luxor pools with sub-1% fees and relies on Coinbase Custody for secure cold storage, featuring multi-factor authentication and strict withdrawal protocols. 

With operations across Niagara Falls, NY; Medicine Hat, AB; and Orla, TX, ABTC is leveraging strategic partnerships—primarily with Hut 8—to scale its Bitcoin holdings while influencing the broader crypto mining ecosystem.

This post The Trump’s American Bitcoin Merges with Gryphon, Reports 215 BTC on Balance Sheet Since Launch first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Jenna Montgomery.

@ 9e69e420:d12360c2

A new report from the National Sports Shooting Foundation (NSSF) shows that civilian firearm possession exceeded 490 million in 2022. The total from 1990 to 2022 is estimated at 491.3 million firearms. In 2022, over ten million firearms were domestically produced, leading to a total of 16,045,911 firearms available in the U.S. market.

Of these, 9,873,136 were handguns, 4,195,192 were rifles, and 1,977,583 were shotguns. Handgun availability aligns with the concealed carry and self-defense market, as all states allow concealed carry, with 29 having constitutional carry laws.

@ 6389be64:ef439d32

Black Locust can grow up to 170 ft tall

Grows 3-4 ft. per year

Native to North America

Cold hardy in zones 3 to 8

Firewood

• BLT wood, on a pound for pound basis is roughly half that of Anthracite Coal
• Since its growth is fast, firewood can be plentiful

Timber

• Rot resistant due to a naturally produced robinin in the wood
  • 100 year life span in full soil contact! (better than cedar performance)
  • Fence posts
  • Outdoor furniture
  • Outdoor decking
• Sustainable due to its fast growth and spread
  • Can be coppiced (cut to the ground)
  • Can be pollarded (cut above ground)
• Its dense wood makes durable tool handles, boxes (tool), and furniture
  • The wood is tougher than hickory, which is tougher than hard maple, which is tougher than oak.
  • A very low rate of expansion and contraction
  • Hardwood flooring
  • The highest tensile beam strength of any American tree
• The wood is beautiful

Legume

• Nitrogen fixer
  • Fixes the same amount of nitrogen per acre as is needed for 200-bushel/acre corn
  • Black walnuts inter-planted with locust as “nurse” trees were shown to rapidly increase their growth [[Clark, Paul M., and Robert D. Williams. (1978) Black walnut growth increased when interplanted with nitrogen-fixing shrubs and trees. Proceedings of the Indiana Academy of Science, vol. 88, pp. 88-91.]]

Bees

• The edible flower clusters are also a top food source for honey bees

Shade Provider

• Its light, airy overstory provides dappled shade
  • Planted on the west side of a garden it provides relief during the hottest part of the day
  • (nitrogen provider)
  • Planted on the west side of a house, its quick growth soon shades that side from the sun

Wind-break

• Fast growth plus it's feathery foliage reduces wind for animals, crops, and shelters

Fodder

• Over 20% crude protein
• 4.1 kcal/g of energy
• Baertsche, S.R, M.T. Yokoyama, and J.W. Hanover (1986) Short rotation, hardwood tree biomass as potential ruminant feed-chemical composition, nylon bag ruminal degradation and ensilement of selected species. J. Animal Sci. 63 2028-2043

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Michael Saylor: The Bear Market Is Not Coming Back And Bitcoin Is Going To $1 Million

Today, the Executive Chairman and CEO of Strategy Michael Saylor commented on the company’s aggressive Bitcoin-based strategy in a recent interview at Bloomberg, emphasizing that Bitcoin is not going to zero, it is going to $1 million.

“I think we’re in a digital gold rush and you’ve got ten years to acquire all your bitcoin before there’s no bitcoin left for you,” Saylor said. “The competition is a virtuous competition.” 

JUST IN: Michael Saylor said the bear market is not coming back and Bitcoin is going to $1 million

pic.twitter.com/J4sn80LMzs

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) June 10, 2025

Saylor also said that Bitcoin is not going to have bear markets anymore and the price is going to $1 million per coin.

“Winter is not coming back,” commented Sayor. “We are past that phase. If Bitcoin is not going to zero, it is going to $1 million. The President of the United States is determined. He supports Bitcoin, the cabinet supports Bitcoin, Scott Bessent supports Bitcoin, Paul Atkins is shown himself to be an enthusiastic believer of Bitcoin and digital assets… Bitcoin has gotten through its riskiest period.”

He also pointed out that international firms are rapidly entering the space.

“Metaplanet is the hottest company in Japan right now, they went from $10 million to a $1 billion market cap to a $5 billion market cap. They’re going to raise billions of dollars. They’re going to pull the liquidity out of the Japanese market. So they’ll be raising capital in Tokyo and the Tokyo Stock Exchange… It’s not competitive. It’s cooperative.”

Strategy’s approach is far from traditional. The company is not just buying and holding Bitcoin; it is building financial instruments around it, which Saylor believes sets them apart.

“Our company has a very particular business model,” he stated. “It’s to issue Bitcoin-backed credit instruments like Bitcoin-backed bonds and especially Bitcoin-backed preferred stocks. We’re the only company in the world that’s ever been able to issue a preferred stock backed by Bitcoin. We’ve done three of them in the past five months.”

Rather than viewing Bitcoin treasury holdings or ETFs as competitors, Saylor explained that Strategy is targeting a different segment of the market entirely.

“We’re not competing against the Bitcoin treasury companies. We’re competing against ETFs like PFF that have portafolios of preferred stocks or corporate bond portfolios that are trading as ETFs in the public market, and the way we compete is we offer 400 basis points more yield on an instrument that is much more heavily collateralized and more transparent… That’s $100 trillion or more of capital in those markets,” explained Saylor.

He emphasized that Strategy’s Bitcoin balance sheet gives it a unique edge, giving the company the ability to design unique financial products.

“Our advantage is that we’re 100% Bitcoin… It’s impossible to issue Bitcoin-backed convertible preferred and Bitcoin-backed fixed preferred unless you’re willing to make 100% of your balance sheet Bitcoin.”

“I’m not really worried about competition from JPMorgan or Berkshire Hathaway,” concluded Saylor. “I would love for them to enter the Bitcoin space, buy up a bunch of Bitcoin. When they do it, they’ll be paying $1,000,000 a Bitcoin. The price will go to the moon.”

This post Michael Saylor: The Bear Market Is Not Coming Back And Bitcoin Is Going To $1 Million first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Oscar Zarraga Perez.

@ 6389be64:ef439d32

Bitcoin is more than money, more than an asset, and more than a store of value. Bitcoin is a Prime Mover, an enabler and it ignites imaginations. It certainly fueled an idea in my mind. The idea integrates sensors, computational prowess, actuated machinery, power conversion, and electronic communications to form an autonomous, machined creature roaming forests and harvesting the most widespread and least energy-dense fuel source available. I call it the Forest Walker and it eats wood, and mines Bitcoin.

I know what you're thinking. Why not just put Bitcoin mining rigs where they belong: in a hosted facility sporting electricity from energy-dense fuels like natural gas, climate-controlled with excellent data piping in and out? Why go to all the trouble building a robot that digests wood creating flammable gasses fueling an engine to run a generator powering Bitcoin miners? It's all about synergy.

Bitcoin mining enables the realization of multiple, seemingly unrelated, yet useful activities. Activities considered un-profitable if not for Bitcoin as the Prime Mover. This is much more than simply mining the greatest asset ever conceived by humankind. It’s about the power of synergy, which Bitcoin plays only one of many roles. The synergy created by this system can stabilize forests' fire ecology while generating multiple income streams. That’s the realistic goal here and requires a brief history of American Forest management before continuing.

Smokey The Bear

In 1944, the Smokey Bear Wildfire Prevention Campaign began in the United States. “Only YOU can prevent forest fires” remains the refrain of the Ad Council’s longest running campaign. The Ad Council is a U.S. non-profit set up by the American Association of Advertising Agencies and the Association of National Advertisers in 1942. It would seem that the U.S. Department of the Interior was concerned about pesky forest fires and wanted them to stop. So, alongside a national policy of extreme fire suppression they enlisted the entire U.S. population to get onboard via the Ad Council and it worked. Forest fires were almost obliterated and everyone was happy, right? Wrong.

Smokey is a fantastically successful bear so forest fires became so few for so long that the fuel load - dead wood - in forests has become very heavy. So heavy that when a fire happens (and they always happen) it destroys everything in its path because the more fuel there is the hotter that fire becomes. Trees, bushes, shrubs, and all other plant life cannot escape destruction (not to mention homes and businesses). The soil microbiology doesn’t escape either as it is burned away even in deeper soils. To add insult to injury, hydrophobic waxy residues condense on the soil surface, forcing water to travel over the ground rather than through it eroding forest soils. Good job, Smokey. Well done, Sir!

Most terrestrial ecologies are “fire ecologies”. Fire is a part of these systems’ fuel load and pest management. Before we pretended to “manage” millions of acres of forest, fires raged over the world, rarely damaging forests. The fuel load was always too light to generate fires hot enough to moonscape mountainsides. Fires simply burned off the minor amounts of fuel accumulated since the fire before. The lighter heat, smoke, and other combustion gasses suppressed pests, keeping them in check and the smoke condensed into a plant growth accelerant called wood vinegar, not a waxy cap on the soil. These fires also cleared out weak undergrowth, cycled minerals, and thinned the forest canopy, allowing sunlight to penetrate to the forest floor. Without a fire’s heat, many pine tree species can’t sow their seed. The heat is required to open the cones (the seed bearing structure) of Spruce, Cypress, Sequoia, Jack Pine, Lodgepole Pine and many more. Without fire forests can’t have babies. The idea was to protect the forests, and it isn't working.

So, in a world of fire, what does an ally look like and what does it do?

Meet The Forest Walker

For the Forest Walker to work as a mobile, autonomous unit, a solid platform that can carry several hundred pounds is required. It so happens this chassis already exists but shelved.

Introducing the Legged Squad Support System (LS3). A joint project between Boston Dynamics, DARPA, and the United States Marine Corps, the quadrupedal robot is the size of a cow, can carry 400 pounds (180 kg) of equipment, negotiate challenging terrain, and operate for 24 hours before needing to refuel. Yes, it had an engine. Abandoned in 2015, the thing was too noisy for military deployment and maintenance "under fire" is never a high-quality idea. However, we can rebuild it to act as a platform for the Forest Walker; albeit with serious alterations. It would need to be bigger, probably. Carry more weight? Definitely. Maybe replace structural metal with carbon fiber and redesign much as 3D printable parts for more effective maintenance.

The original system has a top operational speed of 8 miles per hour. For our purposes, it only needs to move about as fast as a grazing ruminant. Without the hammering vibrations of galloping into battle, shocks of exploding mortars, and drunken soldiers playing "Wrangler of Steel Machines", time between failures should be much longer and the overall energy consumption much lower. The LS3 is a solid platform to build upon. Now it just needs to be pulled out of the mothballs, and completely refitted with outboard equipment.

The Small Branch Chipper

When I say “Forest fuel load” I mean the dead, carbon containing litter on the forest floor. Duff (leaves), fine-woody debris (small branches), and coarse woody debris (logs) are the fuel that feeds forest fires. Walk through any forest in the United States today and you will see quite a lot of these materials. Too much, as I have described. Some of these fuel loads can be 8 tons per acre in pine and hardwood forests and up to 16 tons per acre at active logging sites. That’s some big wood and the more that collects, the more combustible danger to the forest it represents. It also provides a technically unlimited fuel supply for the Forest Walker system.

The problem is that this detritus has to be chewed into pieces that are easily ingestible by the system for the gasification process (we’ll get to that step in a minute). What we need is a wood chipper attached to the chassis (the LS3); its “mouth”.

A small wood chipper handling material up to 2.5 - 3.0 inches (6.3 - 7.6 cm) in diameter would eliminate a substantial amount of fuel. There is no reason for Forest Walker to remove fallen trees. It wouldn’t have to in order to make a real difference. It need only identify appropriately sized branches and grab them. Once loaded into the chipper’s intake hopper for further processing, the beast can immediately look for more “food”. This is essentially kindling that would help ignite larger logs. If it’s all consumed by Forest Walker, then it’s not present to promote an aggravated conflagration.

I have glossed over an obvious question: How does Forest Walker see and identify branches and such? LiDaR (Light Detection and Ranging) attached to Forest Walker images the local area and feed those data to onboard computers for processing. Maybe AI plays a role. Maybe simple machine learning can do the trick. One thing is for certain: being able to identify a stick and cause robotic appendages to pick it up is not impossible.

Great! We now have a quadrupedal robot autonomously identifying and “eating” dead branches and other light, combustible materials. Whilst strolling through the forest, depleting future fires of combustibles, Forest Walker has already performed a major function of this system: making the forest safer. It's time to convert this low-density fuel into a high-density fuel Forest Walker can leverage. Enter the gasification process.

The Gassifier

The gasifier is the heart of the entire system; it’s where low-density fuel becomes the high-density fuel that powers the entire system. Biochar and wood vinegar are process wastes and I’ll discuss why both are powerful soil amendments in a moment, but first, what’s gasification?

Reacting shredded carbonaceous material at high temperatures in a low or no oxygen environment converts the biomass into biochar, wood vinegar, heat, and Synthesis Gas (Syngas). Syngas consists primarily of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and methane. All of which are extremely useful fuels in a gaseous state. Part of this gas is used to heat the input biomass and keep the reaction temperature constant while the internal combustion engine that drives the generator to produce electrical power consumes the rest.

Critically, this gasification process is “continuous feed”. Forest Walker must intake biomass from the chipper, process it to fuel, and dump the waste (CO2, heat, biochar, and wood vinegar) continuously. It cannot stop. Everything about this system depends upon this continual grazing, digestion, and excretion of wastes just as a ruminal does. And, like a ruminant, all waste products enhance the local environment.

When I first heard of gasification, I didn’t believe that it was real. Running an electric generator from burning wood seemed more akin to “conspiracy fantasy” than science. Not only is gasification real, it’s ancient technology. A man named Dean Clayton first started experiments on gasification in 1699 and in 1901 gasification was used to power a vehicle. By the end of World War II, there were 500,000 Syngas powered vehicles in Germany alone because of fossil fuel rationing during the war. The global gasification market was $480 billion in 2022 and projected to be as much as $700 billion by 2030 (Vantage Market Research). Gasification technology is the best choice to power the Forest Walker because it’s self-contained and we want its waste products.

Biochar: The Waste

Biochar (AKA agricultural charcoal) is fairly simple: it’s almost pure, solid carbon that resembles charcoal. Its porous nature packs large surface areas into small, 3 dimensional nuggets. Devoid of most other chemistry, like hydrocarbons (methane) and ash (minerals), biochar is extremely lightweight. Do not confuse it with the charcoal you buy for your grill. Biochar doesn’t make good grilling charcoal because it would burn too rapidly as it does not contain the multitude of flammable components that charcoal does. Biochar has several other good use cases. Water filtration, water retention, nutrient retention, providing habitat for microscopic soil organisms, and carbon sequestration are the main ones that we are concerned with here.

Carbon has an amazing ability to adsorb (substances stick to and accumulate on the surface of an object) manifold chemistries. Water, nutrients, and pollutants tightly bind to carbon in this format. So, biochar makes a respectable filter and acts as a “battery” of water and nutrients in soils. Biochar adsorbs and holds on to seven times its weight in water. Soil containing biochar is more drought resilient than soil without it. Adsorbed nutrients, tightly sequestered alongside water, get released only as plants need them. Plants must excrete protons (H+) from their roots to disgorge water or positively charged nutrients from the biochar's surface; it's an active process.

Biochar’s surface area (where adsorption happens) can be 500 square meters per gram or more. That is 10% larger than an official NBA basketball court for every gram of biochar. Biochar’s abundant surface area builds protective habitats for soil microbes like fungi and bacteria and many are critical for the health and productivity of the soil itself.

The “carbon sequestration” component of biochar comes into play where “carbon credits” are concerned. There is a financial market for carbon. Not leveraging that market for revenue is foolish. I am climate agnostic. All I care about is that once solid carbon is inside the soil, it will stay there for thousands of years, imparting drought resiliency, fertility collection, nutrient buffering, and release for that time span. I simply want as much solid carbon in the soil because of the undeniably positive effects it has, regardless of any climactic considerations.

Wood Vinegar: More Waste

Another by-product of the gasification process is wood vinegar (Pyroligneous acid). If you have ever seen Liquid Smoke in the grocery store, then you have seen wood vinegar. Principally composed of acetic acid, acetone, and methanol wood vinegar also contains ~200 other organic compounds. It would seem intuitive that condensed, liquefied wood smoke would at least be bad for the health of all living things if not downright carcinogenic. The counter intuition wins the day, however. Wood vinegar has been used by humans for a very long time to promote digestion, bowel, and liver health; combat diarrhea and vomiting; calm peptic ulcers and regulate cholesterol levels; and a host of other benefits.

For centuries humans have annually burned off hundreds of thousands of square miles of pasture, grassland, forest, and every other conceivable terrestrial ecosystem. Why is this done? After every burn, one thing becomes obvious: the almost supernatural growth these ecosystems exhibit after the burn. How? Wood vinegar is a component of this growth. Even in open burns, smoke condenses and infiltrates the soil. That is when wood vinegar shows its quality.

This stuff beefs up not only general plant growth but seed germination as well and possesses many other qualities that are beneficial to plants. It’s a pesticide, fungicide, promotes beneficial soil microorganisms, enhances nutrient uptake, and imparts disease resistance. I am barely touching a long list of attributes here, but you want wood vinegar in your soil (alongside biochar because it adsorbs wood vinegar as well).

The Internal Combustion Engine

Conversion of grazed forage to chemical, then mechanical, and then electrical energy completes the cycle. The ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) converts the gaseous fuel output from the gasifier to mechanical energy, heat, water vapor, and CO2. It’s the mechanical energy of a rotating drive shaft that we want. That rotation drives the electric generator, which is the heartbeat we need to bring this monster to life. Luckily for us, combined internal combustion engine and generator packages are ubiquitous, delivering a defined energy output given a constant fuel input. It’s the simplest part of the system.

The obvious question here is whether the amount of syngas provided by the gasification process will provide enough energy to generate enough electrons to run the entire system or not. While I have no doubt the energy produced will run Forest Walker's main systems the question is really about the electrons left over. Will it be enough to run the Bitcoin mining aspect of the system? Everything is a budget.

CO2 Production For Growth

Plants are lollipops. No matter if it’s a tree or a bush or a shrubbery, the entire thing is mostly sugar in various formats but mostly long chain carbohydrates like lignin and cellulose. Plants need three things to make sugar: CO2, H2O and light. In a forest, where tree densities can be quite high, CO2 availability becomes a limiting growth factor. It’d be in the forest interests to have more available CO2 providing for various sugar formation providing the organism with food and structure.

An odd thing about tree leaves, the openings that allow gasses like the ever searched for CO2 are on the bottom of the leaf (these are called stomata). Not many stomata are topside. This suggests that trees and bushes have evolved to find gasses like CO2 from below, not above and this further suggests CO2 might be in higher concentrations nearer the soil.

The soil life (bacterial, fungi etc.) is constantly producing enormous amounts of CO2 and it would stay in the soil forever (eventually killing the very soil life that produces it) if not for tidal forces. Water is everywhere and whether in pools, lakes, oceans or distributed in “moist” soils water moves towards to the moon. The water in the soil and also in the water tables below the soil rise toward the surface every day. When the water rises, it expels the accumulated gasses in the soil into the atmosphere and it’s mostly CO2. It’s a good bet on how leaves developed high populations of stomata on the underside of leaves. As the water relaxes (the tide goes out) it sucks oxygenated air back into the soil to continue the functions of soil life respiration. The soil “breathes” albeit slowly.

The gasses produced by the Forest Walker’s internal combustion engine consist primarily of CO2 and H2O. Combusting sugars produce the same gasses that are needed to construct the sugars because the universe is funny like that. The Forest Walker is constantly laying down these critical construction elements right where the trees need them: close to the ground to be gobbled up by the trees.

The Branch Drones

During the last ice age, giant mammals populated North America - forests and otherwise. Mastodons, woolly mammoths, rhinos, short-faced bears, steppe bison, caribou, musk ox, giant beavers, camels, gigantic ground-dwelling sloths, glyptodons, and dire wolves were everywhere. Many were ten to fifteen feet tall. As they crashed through forests, they would effectively cleave off dead side-branches of trees, halting the spread of a ground-based fire migrating into the tree crown ("laddering") which is a death knell for a forest.

These animals are all extinct now and forests no longer have any manner of pruning services. But, if we build drones fitted with cutting implements like saws and loppers, optical cameras and AI trained to discern dead branches from living ones, these drones could effectively take over pruning services by identifying, cutting, and dropping to the forest floor, dead branches. The dropped branches simply get collected by the Forest Walker as part of its continual mission.

The drones dock on the back of the Forest Walker to recharge their batteries when low. The whole scene would look like a grazing cow with some flies bothering it. This activity breaks the link between a relatively cool ground based fire and the tree crowns and is a vital element in forest fire control.

The Bitcoin Miner

Mining is one of four monetary incentive models, making this system a possibility for development. The other three are US Dept. of the Interior, township, county, and electrical utility company easement contracts for fuel load management, global carbon credits trading, and data set sales. All the above depends on obvious questions getting answered. I will list some obvious ones, but this is not an engineering document and is not the place for spreadsheets. How much Bitcoin one Forest Walker can mine depends on everything else. What amount of biomass can we process? Will that biomass flow enough Syngas to keep the lights on? Can the chassis support enough mining ASICs and supporting infrastructure? What does that weigh and will it affect field performance? How much power can the AC generator produce?

Other questions that are more philosophical persist. Even if a single Forest Walker can only mine scant amounts of BTC per day, that pales to how much fuel material it can process into biochar. We are talking about millions upon millions of forested acres in need of fuel load management. What can a single Forest Walker do? I am not thinking in singular terms. The Forest Walker must operate as a fleet. What could 50 do? 500?

What is it worth providing a service to the world by managing forest fuel loads? Providing proof of work to the global monetary system? Seeding soil with drought and nutrient resilience by the excretion, over time, of carbon by the ton? What did the last forest fire cost?

The Mesh Network

What could be better than one bitcoin mining, carbon sequestering, forest fire squelching, soil amending behemoth? Thousands of them, but then they would need to be able to talk to each other to coordinate position, data handling, etc. Fitted with a mesh networking device, like goTenna or Meshtastic LoRa equipment enables each Forest Walker to communicate with each other.

Now we have an interconnected fleet of Forest Walkers relaying data to each other and more importantly, aggregating all of that to the last link in the chain for uplink. Well, at least Bitcoin mining data. Since block data is lightweight, transmission of these data via mesh networking in fairly close quartered environs is more than doable. So, how does data transmit to the Bitcoin Network? How do the Forest Walkers get the previous block data necessary to execute on mining?

Back To The Chain

Getting Bitcoin block data to and from the network is the last puzzle piece. The standing presumption here is that wherever a Forest Walker fleet is operating, it is NOT within cell tower range. We further presume that the nearest Walmart Wi-Fi is hours away. Enter the Blockstream Satellite or something like it.

A separate, ground-based drone will have two jobs: To stay as close to the nearest Forest Walker as it can and to provide an antennae for either terrestrial or orbital data uplink. Bitcoin-centric data is transmitted to the "uplink drone" via the mesh networked transmitters and then sent on to the uplink and the whole flow goes in the opposite direction as well; many to one and one to many.

We cannot transmit data to the Blockstream satellite, and it will be up to Blockstream and companies like it to provide uplink capabilities in the future and I don't doubt they will. Starlink you say? What’s stopping that company from filtering out block data? Nothing because it’s Starlink’s system and they could decide to censor these data. It seems we may have a problem sending and receiving Bitcoin data in back country environs.

But, then again, the utility of this system in staunching the fuel load that creates forest fires is extremely useful around forested communities and many have fiber, Wi-Fi and cell towers. These communities could be a welcoming ground zero for first deployments of the Forest Walker system by the home and business owners seeking fire repression. In the best way, Bitcoin subsidizes the safety of the communities.

Sensor Packages

LiDaR

The benefit of having a Forest Walker fleet strolling through the forest is the never ending opportunity for data gathering. A plethora of deployable sensors gathering hyper-accurate data on everything from temperature to topography is yet another revenue generator. Data is valuable and the Forest Walker could generate data sales to various government entities and private concerns.

LiDaR (Light Detection and Ranging) can map topography, perform biomass assessment, comparative soil erosion analysis, etc. It so happens that the Forest Walker’s ability to “see,” to navigate about its surroundings, is LiDaR driven and since it’s already being used, we can get double duty by harvesting that data for later use. By using a laser to send out light pulses and measuring the time it takes for the reflection of those pulses to return, very detailed data sets incrementally build up. Eventually, as enough data about a certain area becomes available, the data becomes useful and valuable.

Forestry concerns, both private and public, often use LiDaR to build 3D models of tree stands to assess the amount of harvest-able lumber in entire sections of forest. Consulting companies offering these services charge anywhere from several hundred to several thousand dollars per square kilometer for such services. A Forest Walker generating such assessments on the fly while performing its other functions is a multi-disciplinary approach to revenue generation.

pH, Soil Moisture, and Cation Exchange Sensing

The Forest Walker is quadrupedal, so there are four contact points to the soil. Why not get a pH data point for every step it takes? We can also gather soil moisture data and cation exchange capacities at unheard of densities because of sampling occurring on the fly during commission of the system’s other duties. No one is going to build a machine to do pH testing of vast tracts of forest soils, but that doesn’t make the data collected from such an endeavor valueless. Since the Forest Walker serves many functions at once, a multitude of data products can add to the return on investment component.

Weather Data

Temperature, humidity, pressure, and even data like evapotranspiration gathered at high densities on broad acre scales have untold value and because the sensors are lightweight and don’t require large power budgets, they come along for the ride at little cost. But, just like the old mantra, “gas, grass, or ass, nobody rides for free”, these sensors provide potential revenue benefits just by them being present.

I’ve touched on just a few data genres here. In fact, the question for universities, governmental bodies, and other institutions becomes, “How much will you pay us to attach your sensor payload to the Forest Walker?”

Noise Suppression

Only you can prevent Metallica filling the surrounds with 120 dB of sound. Easy enough, just turn the car stereo off. But what of a fleet of 50 Forest Walkers operating in the backcountry or near a township? 500? 5000? Each one has a wood chipper, an internal combustion engine, hydraulic pumps, actuators, and more cooling fans than you can shake a stick at. It’s a walking, screaming fire-breathing dragon operating continuously, day and night, twenty-four hours a day, three hundred sixty-five days a year. The sound will negatively affect all living things and that impacts behaviors. Serious engineering consideration and prowess must deliver a silencing blow to the major issue of noise.

It would be foolish to think that a fleet of Forest Walkers could be silent, but if not a major design consideration, then the entire idea is dead on arrival. Townships would not allow them to operate even if they solved the problem of widespread fuel load and neither would governmental entities, and rightly so. Nothing, not man nor beast, would want to be subjected to an eternal, infernal scream even if it were to end within days as the fleet moved further away after consuming what it could. Noise and heat are the only real pollutants of this system; taking noise seriously from the beginning is paramount.

Fire Safety

A “fire-breathing dragon” is not the worst description of the Forest Walker. It eats wood, combusts it at very high temperatures and excretes carbon; and it does so in an extremely flammable environment. Bad mix for one Forest Walker, worse for many. One must take extreme pains to ensure that during normal operation, a Forest Walker could fall over, walk through tinder dry brush, or get pounded into the ground by a meteorite from Krypton and it wouldn’t destroy epic swaths of trees and baby deer. I envision an ultimate test of a prototype to include dowsing it in grain alcohol while it’s wrapped up in toilet paper like a pledge at a fraternity party. If it runs for 72 hours and doesn’t set everything on fire, then maybe outside entities won’t be fearful of something that walks around forests with a constant fire in its belly.

The Wrap

How we think about what can be done with and adjacent to Bitcoin is at least as important as Bitcoin’s economic standing itself. For those who will tell me that this entire idea is without merit, I say, “OK, fine. You can come up with something, too.” What can we plug Bitcoin into that, like a battery, makes something that does not work, work? That’s the lesson I get from this entire exercise. No one was ever going to hire teams of humans to go out and "clean the forest". There's no money in that. The data collection and sales from such an endeavor might provide revenues over the break-even point but investment demands Alpha in this day and age. But, plug Bitcoin into an almost viable system and, voilà! We tip the scales to achieve lift-off.

Let’s face it, we haven’t scratched the surface of Bitcoin’s forcing function on our minds. Not because it’s Bitcoin, but because of what that invention means. The question that pushes me to approach things this way is, “what can we create that one system’s waste is another system’s feedstock?” The Forest Walker system’s only real waste is the conversion of low entropy energy (wood and syngas) into high entropy energy (heat and noise). All other output is beneficial to humanity.

Bitcoin, I believe, is the first product of a new mode of human imagination. An imagination newly forged over the past few millennia of being lied to, stolen from, distracted and otherwise mis-allocated to a black hole of the nonsensical. We are waking up.

What I have presented is not science fiction. Everything I have described here is well within the realm of possibility. The question is one of viability, at least in terms of the detritus of the old world we find ourselves departing from. This system would take a non-trivial amount of time and resources to develop. I think the system would garner extensive long-term contracts from those who have the most to lose from wildfires, the most to gain from hyperaccurate data sets, and, of course, securing the most precious asset in the world. Many may not see it that way, for they seek Alpha and are therefore blind to other possibilities. Others will see only the possibilities; of thinking in a new way, of looking at things differently, and dreaming of what comes next.

@ e3ba5e1a:5e433365

My blog posts and reading material have both been on a decidedly economics-heavy slant recently. The topic today, incentives, squarely falls into the category of economics. However, when I say economics, I’m not talking about “analyzing supply and demand curves.” I’m talking about the true basis of economics: understanding how human beings make decisions in a world of scarcity.

A fair definition of incentive is “a reward or punishment that motivates behavior to achieve a desired outcome.” When most people think about economic incentives, they’re thinking of money. If I offer my son $5 if he washes the dishes, I’m incentivizing certain behavior. We can’t guarantee that he’ll do what I want him to do, but we can agree that the incentive structure itself will guide and ultimately determine what outcome will occur.

The great thing about monetary incentives is how easy they are to talk about and compare. “Would I rather make $5 washing the dishes or $10 cleaning the gutters?” But much of the world is incentivized in non-monetary ways too. For example, using the “punishment” half of the definition above, I might threaten my son with losing Nintendo Switch access if he doesn’t wash the dishes. No money is involved, but I’m still incentivizing behavior.

And there are plenty of incentives beyond our direct control! My son is also incentivized to not wash dishes because it’s boring, or because he has some friends over that he wants to hang out with, or dozens of other things. Ultimately, the conflicting array of different incentive structures placed on him will ultimately determine what actions he chooses to take.

Why incentives matter

A phrase I see often in discussions—whether they are political, parenting, economic, or business—is “if they could just do…” Each time I see that phrase, I cringe a bit internally. Usually, the underlying assumption of the statement is “if people would behave contrary to their incentivized behavior then things would be better.” For example:

• If my kids would just go to bed when I tell them, they wouldn’t be so cranky in the morning.
• If people would just use the recycling bin, we wouldn’t have such a landfill problem.
• If people would just stop being lazy, our team would deliver our project on time.

In all these cases, the speakers are seemingly flummoxed as to why the people in question don’t behave more rationally. The problem is: each group is behaving perfectly rationally.

• The kids have a high time preference, and care more about the joy of staying up now than the crankiness in the morning. Plus, they don’t really suffer the consequences of morning crankiness, their parents do.
• No individual suffers much from their individual contribution to a landfill. If they stopped growing the size of the landfill, it would make an insignificant difference versus the amount of effort they need to engage in to properly recycle.
• If a team doesn’t properly account for the productivity of individuals on a project, each individual receives less harm from their own inaction. Sure, the project may be delayed, company revenue may be down, and they may even risk losing their job when the company goes out of business. But their laziness individually won’t determine the entirety of that outcome. By contrast, they greatly benefit from being lazy by getting to relax at work, go on social media, read a book, or do whatever else they do when they’re supposed to be working.

My point here is that, as long as you ignore the reality of how incentives drive human behavior, you’ll fail at getting the outcomes you want.

If everything I wrote up until now made perfect sense, you understand the premise of this blog post. The rest of it will focus on a bunch of real-world examples to hammer home the point, and demonstrate how versatile this mental model is.

Running a company

Let’s say I run my own company, with myself as the only employee. My personal revenue will be 100% determined by my own actions. If I decide to take Tuesday afternoon off and go fishing, I’ve chosen to lose that afternoon’s revenue. Implicitly, I’ve decided that the enjoyment I get from an afternoon of fishing is greater than the potential revenue. You may think I’m being lazy, but it’s my decision to make. In this situation, the incentive–money–is perfectly aligned with my actions.

Compare this to a typical company/employee relationship. I might have a bank of Paid Time Off (PTO) days, in which case once again my incentives are relatively aligned. I know that I can take off 15 days throughout the year, and I’ve chosen to use half a day for the fishing trip. All is still good.

What about unlimited time off? Suddenly incentives are starting to misalign. I don’t directly pay a price for not showing up to work on Tuesday. Or Wednesday as well, for that matter. I might ultimately be fired for not doing my job, but that will take longer to work its way through the system than simply not making any money for the day taken off.

Compensation overall falls into this misaligned incentive structure. Let’s forget about taking time off. Instead, I work full time on a software project I’m assigned. But instead of using the normal toolchain we’re all used to at work, I play around with a new programming language. I get the fun and joy of playing with new technology, and potentially get to pad my resume a bit when I’m ready to look for a new job. But my current company gets slower results, less productivity, and is forced to subsidize my extracurricular learning.

When a CEO has a bonus structure based on profitability, he’ll do everything he can to make the company profitable. This might include things that actually benefit the company, like improving product quality, reducing internal red tape, or finding cheaper vendors. But it might also include destructive practices, like slashing the R\&D budget to show massive profits this year, in exchange for a catastrophe next year when the next version of the product fails to ship.

Or my favorite example. My parents owned a business when I was growing up. They had a back office where they ran operations like accounting. All of the furniture was old couches from our house. After all, any money they spent on furniture came right out of their paychecks! But in a large corporate environment, each department is generally given a budget for office furniture, a budget which doesn’t roll over year-to-year. The result? Executives make sure to spend the entire budget each year, often buying furniture far more expensive than they would choose if it was their own money.

There are plenty of details you can quibble with above. It’s in a company’s best interest to give people downtime so that they can come back recharged. Having good ergonomic furniture can in fact increase productivity in excess of the money spent on it. But overall, the picture is pretty clear: in large corporate structures, you’re guaranteed to have mismatches between the company’s goals and the incentive structure placed on individuals.

Using our model from above, we can lament how lazy, greedy, and unethical the employees are for doing what they’re incentivized to do instead of what’s right. But that’s simply ignoring the reality of human nature.

Moral hazard

Moral hazard is a situation where one party is incentivized to take on more risk because another party will bear the consequences. Suppose I tell my son when he turns 21 (or whatever legal gambling age is) that I’ll cover all his losses for a day at the casino, but he gets to keep all the winnings.

What do you think he’s going to do? The most logical course of action is to place the largest possible bets for as long as possible, asking me to cover each time he loses, and taking money off the table and into his bank account each time he wins.

But let’s look at a slightly more nuanced example. I go to a bathroom in the mall. As I’m leaving, I wash my hands. It will take me an extra 1 second to turn off the water when I’m done washing. That’s a trivial price to pay. If I don’t turn off the water, the mall will have to pay for many liters of wasted water, benefiting no one. But I won’t suffer any consequences at all.

This is also a moral hazard, but most people will still turn off the water. Why? Usually due to some combination of other reasons such as:

1. We’re so habituated to turning off the water that we don’t even consider not turning it off. Put differently, the mental effort needed to not turn off the water is more expensive than the 1 second of time to turn it off.
2. Many of us have been brought up with a deep guilt about wasting resources like water. We have an internal incentive structure that makes the 1 second to turn off the water much less costly than the mental anguish of the waste we created.
3. We’re afraid we’ll be caught by someone else and face some kind of social repercussions. (Or maybe more than social. Are you sure there isn’t a law against leaving the water tap on?)

Even with all that in place, you may notice that many public bathrooms use automatic water dispensers. Sure, there’s a sanitation reason for that, but it’s also to avoid this moral hazard.

A common denominator in both of these is that the person taking the action that causes the liability (either the gambling or leaving the water on) is not the person who bears the responsibility for that liability (the father or the mall owner). Generally speaking, the closer together the person making the decision and the person incurring the liability are, the smaller the moral hazard.

It’s easy to demonstrate that by extending the casino example a bit. I said it was the father who was covering the losses of the gambler. Many children (though not all) would want to avoid totally bankrupting their parents, or at least financially hurting them. Instead, imagine that someone from the IRS shows up at your door, hands you a credit card, and tells you you can use it at a casino all day, taking home all the chips you want. The money is coming from the government. How many people would put any restriction on how much they spend?

And since we’re talking about the government already…

Government moral hazards

As I was preparing to write this blog post, the California wildfires hit. The discussions around those wildfires gave a huge number of examples of moral hazards. I decided to cherry-pick a few for this post.

The first and most obvious one: California is asking for disaster relief funds from the federal government. That sounds wonderful. These fires were a natural disaster, so why shouldn’t the federal government pitch in and help take care of people?

The problem is, once again, a moral hazard. In the case of the wildfires, California and Los Angeles both had ample actions they could have taken to mitigate the destruction of this fire: better forest management, larger fire department, keeping the water reservoirs filled, and probably much more that hasn’t come to light yet.

If the federal government bails out California, it will be a clear message for the future: your mistakes will be fixed by others. You know what kind of behavior that incentivizes? More risky behavior! Why spend state funds on forest management and extra firefighters—activities that don’t win politicians a lot of votes in general—when you could instead spend it on a football stadium, higher unemployment payments, or anything else, and then let the feds cover the cost of screw-ups.

You may notice that this is virtually identical to the 2008 “too big to fail” bail-outs. Wall Street took insanely risky behavior, reaped huge profits for years, and when they eventually got caught with their pants down, the rest of us bailed them out. “Privatizing profits, socializing losses.”

And here’s the absolute best part of this: I can’t even truly blame either California or Wall Street. (I mean, I do blame them, I think their behavior is reprehensible, but you’ll see what I mean.) In a world where the rules of the game implicitly include the bail-out mentality, you would be harming your citizens/shareholders/investors if you didn’t engage in that risky behavior. Since everyone is on the hook for those socialized losses, your best bet is to maximize those privatized profits.

There’s a lot more to government and moral hazard, but I think these two cases demonstrate the crux pretty solidly. But let’s leave moral hazard behind for a bit and get to general incentivization discussions.

Non-monetary competition

At least 50% of the economics knowledge I have comes from the very first econ course I took in college. That professor was amazing, and had some very colorful stories. I can’t vouch for the veracity of the two I’m about to share, but they definitely drive the point home.

In the 1970s, the US had an oil shortage. To “fix” this problem, they instituted price caps on gasoline, which of course resulted in insufficient gasoline. To “fix” this problem, they instituted policies where, depending on your license plate number, you could only fill up gas on certain days of the week. (Irrelevant detail for our point here, but this just resulted in people filling up their tanks more often, no reduction in gas usage.)

Anyway, my professor’s wife had a friend. My professor described in great detail how attractive this woman was. I’ll skip those details here since this is a PG-rated blog. In any event, she never had any trouble filling up her gas tank any day of the week. She would drive up, be told she couldn’t fill up gas today, bat her eyes at the attendant, explain how helpless she was, and was always allowed to fill up gas.

This is a demonstration of non-monetary compensation. Most of the time in a free market, capitalist economy, people are compensated through money. When price caps come into play, there’s a limit to how much monetary compensation someone can receive. And in that case, people find other ways of competing. Like this woman’s case: through using flirtatious behavior to compensate the gas station workers to let her cheat the rules.

The other example was much more insidious. Santa Monica had a problem: it was predominantly wealthy and white. They wanted to fix this problem, and decided to put in place rent controls. After some time, they discovered that Santa Monica had become wealthier and whiter, the exact opposite of their desired outcome. Why would that happen?

Someone investigated, and ended up interviewing a landlady that demonstrated the reason. She was an older white woman, and admittedly racist. Prior to the rent controls, she would list her apartments in the newspaper, and would be legally obligated to rent to anyone who could afford it. Once rent controls were in place, she took a different tact. She knew that she would only get a certain amount for the apartment, and that the demand for apartments was higher than the supply. That meant she could be picky.

She ended up finding tenants through friends-of-friends. Since it wasn’t an official advertisement, she wasn’t legally required to rent it out if someone could afford to pay. Instead, she got to interview people individually and then make them an offer. Normally, that would have resulted in receiving a lower rental price, but not under rent controls.

So who did she choose? A young, unmarried, wealthy, white woman. It made perfect sense. Women were less intimidating and more likely to maintain the apartment better. Wealthy people, she determined, would be better tenants. (I have no idea if this is true in practice or not, I’m not a landlord myself.) Unmarried, because no kids running around meant less damage to the property. And, of course, white. Because she was racist, and her incentive structure made her prefer whites.

You can deride her for being racist, I won’t disagree with you. But it’s simply the reality. Under the non-rent-control scenario, her profit motive for money outweighed her racism motive. But under rent control, the monetary competition was removed, and she was free to play into her racist tendencies without facing any negative consequences.

Bureaucracy

These were the two examples I remember for that course. But non-monetary compensation pops up in many more places. One highly pertinent example is bureaucracies. Imagine you have a government office, or a large corporation’s acquisition department, or the team that apportions grants at a university. In all these cases, you have a group of people making decisions about handing out money that has no monetary impact on them. If they give to the best qualified recipients, they receive no raises. If they spend the money recklessly on frivolous projects, they face no consequences.

Under such an incentivization scheme, there’s little to encourage the bureaucrats to make intelligent funding decisions. Instead, they’ll be incentivized to spend the money where they recognize non-monetary benefits. This is why it’s so common to hear about expensive meals, gift bags at conferences, and even more inappropriate ways of trying to curry favor with those that hold the purse strings.

Compare that ever so briefly with the purchases made by a small mom-and-pop store like my parents owned. Could my dad take a bribe to buy from a vendor who’s ripping him off? Absolutely he could! But he’d lose more on the deal than he’d make on the bribe, since he’s directly incentivized by the deal itself. It would make much more sense for him to go with the better vendor, save $5,000 on the deal, and then treat himself to a lavish $400 meal to celebrate.

Government incentivized behavior

This post is getting longer in the tooth than I’d intended, so I’ll finish off with this section and make it a bit briefer. Beyond all the methods mentioned above, government has another mechanism for modifying behavior: through directly changing incentives via legislation, regulation, and monetary policy. Let’s see some examples:

• Artificial modification of interest rates encourages people to take on more debt than they would in a free capital market, leading to malinvestment and a consumer debt crisis, and causing the boom-bust cycle we all painfully experience.
• Going along with that, giving tax breaks on interest payments further artificially incentivizes people to take on debt that they wouldn’t otherwise.
• During COVID-19, at some points unemployment benefits were greater than minimum wage, incentivizing people to rather stay home and not work than get a job, leading to reduced overall productivity in the economy and more printed dollars for benefits. In other words, it was a perfect recipe for inflation.
• The tax code gives deductions to “help” people. That might be true, but the real impact is incentivizing people to make decisions they wouldn’t have otherwise. For example, giving out tax deductions on children encourages having more kids. Tax deductions on childcare and preschools incentivizes dual-income households. Whether or not you like the outcomes, it’s clear that it’s government that’s encouraging these outcomes to happen.
• Tax incentives cause people to engage in behavior they wouldn’t otherwise (daycare+working mother, for example).
• Inflation means that the value of your money goes down over time, which encourages people to spend more today, when their money has a larger impact. (Milton Friedman described this as high living.)

Conclusion

The idea here is simple, and fully encapsulated in the title: incentives determine outcomes. If you want to know how to get a certain outcome from others, incentivize them to want that to happen. If you want to understand why people act in seemingly irrational ways, check their incentives. If you’re confused why leaders (and especially politicians) seem to engage in destructive behavior, check their incentives.

We can bemoan these realities all we want, but they are realities. While there are some people who have a solid internal moral and ethical code, and that internal code incentivizes them to behave against their externally-incentivized interests, those people are rare. And frankly, those people are self-defeating. People should take advantage of the incentives around them. Because if they don’t, someone else will.

(If you want a literary example of that last comment, see the horse in Animal Farm.)

How do we improve the world under these conditions? Make sure the incentives align well with the overall goals of society. To me, it’s a simple formula:

• Focus on free trade, value for value, as the basis of a society. In that system, people are always incentivized to provide value to other people.
• Reduce the size of bureaucracies and large groups of all kinds. The larger an organization becomes, the farther the consequences of decisions are from those who make them.
• And since the nature of human beings will be to try and create areas where they can control the incentive systems to their own benefits, make that as difficult as possible. That comes in the form of strict limits on government power, for example.

And even if you don’t want to buy in to this conclusion, I hope the rest of the content was educational, and maybe a bit entertaining!

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

I’ve been using Notedeck for several months, starting with its extremely early and experimental alpha versions, all the way to its current, more stable alpha releases. The journey has been fascinating, as I’ve had the privilege of watching it evolve from a concept into a functional and promising tool.

In its earliest stages, Notedeck was raw—offering glimpses of its potential but still far from practical for daily use. Even then, the vision behind it was clear: a platform designed to redefine how we interact with Nostr by offering flexibility and power for all users.

I'm very bullish on Notedeck. Why? Because Will Casarin is making it! Duh! 😂

Seriously though, if we’re reimagining the web and rebuilding portions of the Internet, it’s important to recognize the potential of Notedeck. If Nostr is reimagining the web, then Notedeck is reimagining the Nostr client.

Notedeck isn’t just another Nostr app—it’s more a Nostr browser that functions more like an operating system with micro-apps. How cool is that?

Much like how Google's Chrome evolved from being a web browser with a task manager into ChromeOS, a full blown operating system, Notedeck aims to transform how we interact with the Nostr. It goes beyond individual apps, offering a foundation for a fully integrated ecosystem built around Nostr.

As a Nostr evangelist, I love to scream INTEROPERABILITY and tout every application's integrations. Well, Notedeck has the potential to be one of the best platforms to showcase these integrations in entirely new and exciting ways.

Do you want an Olas feed of images? Add the media column.

Do you want a feed of live video events? Add the zap.stream column.

Do you want Nostr Nests or audio chats? Add that column to your Notedeck.

Git? Email? Books? Chat and DMs? It's all possible.

Not everyone wants a super app though, and that’s okay. As with most things in the Nostr ecosystem, flexibility is key. Notedeck gives users the freedom to choose how they engage with it—whether it’s simply following hashtags or managing straightforward feeds. You'll be able to tailor Notedeck to fit your needs, using it as extensively or minimally as you prefer.

Notedeck is designed with a local-first approach, utilizing Nostr content stored directly on your device via the local nostrdb. This will enable a plethora of advanced tools such as search and filtering, the creation of custom feeds, and the ability to develop personalized algorithms across multiple Notedeck micro-applications—all with unparalleled flexibility.

Notedeck also supports multicast. Let's geek out for a second. Multicast is a method of communication where data is sent from one source to multiple destinations simultaneously, but only to devices that wish to receive the data. Unlike broadcast, which sends data to all devices on a network, multicast targets specific receivers, reducing network traffic. This is commonly used for efficient data distribution in scenarios like streaming, conferencing, or large-scale data synchronization between devices.

In a local first world where each device holds local copies of your nostr nodes, and each device transparently syncs with each other on the local network, each node becomes a backup. Your data becomes antifragile automatically. When a node goes down it can resync and recover from other nodes. Even if not all nodes have a complete collection, negentropy can pull down only what is needed from each device. All this can be done without internet.

-Will Casarin

In the context of Notedeck, multicast would allow multiple devices to sync their Nostr nodes with each other over a local network without needing an internet connection. Wild.

Notedeck aims to offer full customization too, including the ability to design and share custom skins, much like Winamp. Users will also be able to create personalized columns and, in the future, share their setups with others. This opens the door for power users to craft tailored Nostr experiences, leveraging their expertise in the protocol and applications. By sharing these configurations as "Starter Decks," they can simplify onboarding and showcase the best of Nostr’s ecosystem.

Nostr’s “Other Stuff” can often be difficult to discover, use, or understand. Many users doesn't understand or know how to use web browser extensions to login to applications. Let's not even get started with nsecbunkers. Notedeck will address this challenge by providing a native experience that brings these lesser-known applications, tools, and content into a user-friendly and accessible interface, making exploration seamless. However, that doesn't mean Notedeck should disregard power users that want to use nsecbunkers though - hint hint.

For anyone interested in watching Nostr be developed live, right before your very eyes, Notedeck’s progress serves as a reminder of what’s possible when innovation meets dedication. The current alpha is already demonstrating its ability to handle complex use cases, and I’m excited to see how it continues to grow as it moves toward a full release later this year.

@ 79be667e:16f81798

The world around me\ Is assumed to be

Through sensory observations\ This appears to me

What I experience\ Is for me

But the ultimate experience\ Is for me\ To be

@ 79be667e:16f81798

Zonneschijn\ Stralen, lachen, zo fijn\ Moge de wereld dankbaar zijn

De vrouw, mijn gevoeligheid\ Bron van creativiteit

Genietend niets doen in het gras\ Met wat brood en wat wijn in het glas

@ 79be667e:16f81798

Spontaniteit\ Creativiteit

Iets visueel of gewoon geluid\ Het moet eruit

Ik doe mezelf cadeau aan jou\ Omdat ik van het leven hou

@ 79be667e:16f81798

Kan jij zien, er is geen hemel\ Probeer het zelf, dan lukt het wel\ Geen hel staat ons te wachten\ Enkel sterren hangen ons boven het hoofd\ Kan jij zien, iedereen leeft voor dit moment

Kan jij zien, er zijn geen landen\ Het is niet moeilijk gewoon land te zien\ Niets om voor te moorden of te sterven\ Ook geloof wordt niet gezien\ Kan jij zien, het leven wordt geleefd door iedereen in vrede

Misschien zeg je, ik kijk niet naar jouw wereld\ Maar ik deel dit zicht met velen\ Moge ook jij zoals ons zien\ Wij kijken in de wereld en zien gewoon onszelf

Kan jij zien, er is geen bezit\ Ik vraag me af of jij dit kan\ Geen hebben of een nood\ In een samen-leving van mensen\ Kan jij zien, wij delen de wereld met elkaar

Misschien zeg je, ik kijk niet naar jouw wereld\ Maar ik deel dit zicht met velen\ Moge ook jij zoals ons zien\ Wij kijken in de wereld en zien gewoon onszelf

@ 79be667e:16f81798

Veroorzaakt door de wereld rond mij\ Vormen de wereld in mij

Verwaarloosd door de wereld rond mij\ Overgelaten aan mij

Een groene brug komt uit mij\ Verbindt mij met wij\ En laat ons samen vrij

@ 79be667e:16f81798

In een zee van mogelijkheden\ Kunnen we best veel tijd aan dromen besteden

Dromen is een universele taal\ Het wordt gedaan door ons allemaal

Het is het woord\ Dat deze gelijkheid de grond in boort

@ 79be667e:16f81798

In het hart van een gepensioneerde operazangeres ontstond een stemmetje. Het stemmetje klonk verrast. "He," ging het hart. "Ik heb een stemmetje gekregen! Hoe kan dit? Kan iemand me horen? Zouden mijn gedachten me kunnen horen?" vroeg het stemmetje, niet wetend aan wie. Want de gedachten hoorden het niet. Zij waren zo druk bezig met het verleden en hadden een grote angst dit te verliezen. "Weet je nog?" gingen de gedachten. "Voor duizenden mensen heb ik gezongen! Avond na avond! Tienduizenden mensen hebben me toegejuicht! Wat waren ze onder de indruk! Luister! Ik kan het nog steeds!" "He," ging het hart. "Hoor je me dan niet? Het ging toch helemaal niet om dat gejuich. Weet je dan niet meer hoe ik me volledig bloot gaf aan die mensen. Mijn diepste en meest persoonlijke verhalen waren te horen in mijn liederen. Daar draaide het toch om? De mensen waren niet enkel onder de indruk. Hun harten hebben mijn verhalen gevoeld en konden zo kennis geven aan hun gedachten. Is dat niet wat echt telde?" Maar de gedachten waren volop aan het zingen voor de ene persoon die ze konden vinden die wou luisteren. "He," ging het hart. "Ook in dit moment zijn mijn liederen te horen door vele gedachten en te voelen door vele harten over de hele wereld. Heb ik dan geen rust verdiend? Kan ik niet even genieten van de rust die in dit moment te vinden is, maar jullie van me afnemen?" Maar de gedachten waren nog steeds volop aan het zingen.

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

For years, GitHub has been the default home for open source developers. It built its reputation on transparency, collaboration, and a commitment to giving coders a place to share and improve their work. But since Microsoft's acquisition in 2018, subtle changes have begun to surface—not all of them in service to the user.

GitHub is still free. Public repositories remain free. Even private repositories are free, to a point. GitHub Pages, Actions, and Codespaces offer incredibly powerful tools to build and deploy projects at no cost—until you hit certain usage limits or need team-scale features.

But the deeper question is this: what do you give up in exchange?

Microsoft Doesn’t Give Away Infrastructure for Free

GitHub, VSCode, Copilot, and Azure form a tightly integrated ecosystem. On the surface, it's all about productivity. But underneath, it's about data. Your code trains their models. Your habits inform their products. Your workflows deepen their lock-in.

Take Copilot, for example: it’s not just a coding assistant, it’s a data-harvesting engine built on top of a centralized platform. The more you use GitHub, the more Microsoft knows about what developers are building—and what they might buy.

Free Isn’t Sovereign

As developers, we have to ask hard questions:

• What happens when the free tier disappears or changes?

• Can I take my work elsewhere without breaking my stack?

• Who owns the insights derived from my development patterns?

These questions aren’t hypothetical. We’ve seen them play out with Heroku, Medium, Twitter, and countless others. Free turns into friction. Then friction becomes control.

Alternatives Are Emerging

Thankfully, there are options:

• Codeberg, Gitea, and SourceHut for Git hosting

• Cloudflare Pages for static sites + edge functions

• Railway, Fly.io, or even VPS hosting for dynamic apps

• Nostr and IPFS for decentralized publishing

These aren’t always drop-in replacements. But they represent a healthier direction—one aligned with freedom, transparency, and a proof-of-work ethos rather than a proof-of-data-capture business model.

My Move Away from GitHub (Sort Of)

I’m not deleting my GitHub account. It’s still the best way to reach other devs. But for key projects—especially those that touch on identity, sovereignty, or censorship resistance—I’m migrating:

• Private infrastructure where needed

• Cloudflare for front-end deployments

• Nostr for publishing and archiving

• Git mirroring to open alternatives

Because the tools we use shape the future we build. And if the platform is free, but the product is you—it's time to re-evaluate.

---

#ProofOfWork #OpenSource #Cloudflare #DecentralizeEverything #Nostr #GitSovereignty #MicrosoftStack

@ 1bda7e1f:bb97c4d9

Tldr

• Nostr is an open and interoperable protocol
• You can integrate it with workflow automation tools to augment your experience
• n8n is a great low/no-code workflow automation tool which you can host yourself
• Nostrobots allows you to integrate Nostr into n8n
• In this blog I create some workflow automations for Nostr
• A simple form to delegate posting notes
• Push notifications for mentions on multiple accounts
• Push notifications for your favourite accounts when they post a note
• All workflows are provided as open source with MIT license for you to use

Inter-op All The Things

Nostr is a new open social protocol for the internet. This open nature exciting because of the opportunities for interoperability with other technologies. In Using NFC Cards with Nostr I explored the nostr: URI to launch Nostr clients from a card tap.

The interoperability of Nostr doesn't stop there. The internet has many super-powers, and Nostr is open to all of them. Simply, there's no one to stop it. There is no one in charge, there are no permissioned APIs, and there are no risks of being de-platformed. If you can imagine technologies that would work well with Nostr, then any and all of them can ride on or alongside Nostr rails.

My mental model for why this is special is Google Wave ~2010. Google Wave was to be the next big platform. Lars was running it and had a big track record from Maps. I was excited for it. Then, Google pulled the plug. And, immediately all the time and capital invested in understanding and building on the platform was wasted.

This cannot happen to Nostr, as there is no one to pull the plug, and maybe even no plug to pull.

So long as users demand Nostr, Nostr will exist, and that is a pretty strong guarantee. It makes it worthwhile to invest in bringing Nostr into our other applications.

All we need are simple ways to plug things together.

Nostr and Workflow Automation

Workflow automation is about helping people to streamline their work. As a user, the most common way I achieve this is by connecting disparate systems together. By setting up one system to trigger another or to move data between systems, I can solve for many different problems and become way more effective.

n8n for workflow automation

Many workflow automation tools exist. My favourite is n8n. n8n is a low/no-code workflow automation platform which allows you to build all kinds of workflows. You can use it for free, you can self-host it, it has a user-friendly UI and useful API. Vs Zapier it can be far more elaborate. Vs Make.com I find it to be more intuitive in how it abstracts away the right parts of the code, but still allows you to code when you need to.

Most importantly you can plug anything into n8n: You have built-in nodes for specific applications. HTTP nodes for any other API-based service. And community nodes built by individual community members for any other purpose you can imagine.

Eating my own dogfood

It's very clear to me that there is a big design space here just demanding to be explored. If you could integrate Nostr with anything, what would you do?

In my view the best way for anyone to start anything is by solving their own problem first (aka "scratching your own itch" and "eating your own dogfood"). As I get deeper into Nostr I find myself controlling multiple Npubs – to date I have a personal Npub, a brand Npub for a community I am helping, an AI assistant Npub, and various testing Npubs. I need ways to delegate access to those Npubs without handing over the keys, ways to know if they're mentioned, and ways to know if they're posting.

I can build workflows with n8n to solve these issues for myself to start with, and keep expanding from there as new needs come up.

Running n8n with Nostrobots

I am mostly non-technical with a very helpful AI. To set up n8n to work with Nostr and operate these workflows should be possible for anyone with basic technology skills.

• I have a cheap VPS which currently runs my HAVEN Nostr Relay and Albyhub Lightning Node in Docker containers,
• My objective was to set up n8n to run alongside these in a separate Docker container on the same server, install the required nodes, and then build and host my workflows.

Installing n8n

Self-hosting n8n could not be easier. I followed n8n's Docker-Compose installation docs–

• Install Docker and Docker-Compose if you haven't already,
• Create your docker-compose.yml and .env files from the docs,
• Create your data folder sudo docker volume create n8n_data,
• Start your container with sudo docker compose up -d,
• Your n8n instance should be online at port 5678.

n8n is free to self-host but does require a license. Enter your credentials into n8n to get your free license key. You should now have access to the Workflow dashboard and can create and host any kind of workflows from there.

Installing Nostrobots

To integrate n8n nicely with Nostr, I used the Nostrobots community node by Ocknamo.

In n8n parlance a "node" enables certain functionality as a step in a workflow e.g. a "set" node sets a variable, a "send email" node sends an email. n8n comes with all kinds of "official" nodes installed by default, and Nostr is not amongst them. However, n8n also comes with a framework for community members to create their own "community" nodes, which is where Nostrobots comes in.

You can only use a community node in a self-hosted n8n instance (which is what you have if you are running in Docker on your own server, but this limitation does prevent you from using n8n's own hosted alternative).

To install a community node, see n8n community node docs. From your workflow dashboard–

• Click the "..." in the bottom left corner beside your username, and click "settings",
• Cilck "community nodes" left sidebar,
• Click "Install",
• Enter the "npm Package Name" which is n8n-nodes-nostrobots,
• Accept the risks and click "Install",
• Nostrobots is now added to your n8n instance.

Using Nostrobots

Nostrobots gives you nodes to help you build Nostr-integrated workflows–

• Nostr Write – for posting Notes to the Nostr network,
• Nostr Read – for reading Notes from the Nostr network, and
• Nostr Utils – for performing certain conversions you may need (e.g. from bech32 to hex).

Nostrobots has good documentation on each node which focuses on simple use cases.

Each node has a "convenience mode" by default. For example, the "Read" Node by default will fetch Kind 1 notes by a simple filter, in Nostrobots parlance a "Strategy". For example, with Strategy set to "Mention" the node will accept a pubkey and fetch all Kind 1 notes that Mention the pubkey within a time period. This is very good for quick use.

What wasn't clear to me initially (until Ocknamo helped me out) is that advanced use cases are also possible.

Each node also has an advanced mode. For example, the "Read" Node can have "Strategy" set to "RawFilter(advanced)". Now the node will accept json (anything you like that complies with NIP-01). You can use this to query Notes (Kind 1) as above, and also Profiles (Kind 0), Follow Lists (Kind 3), Reactions (Kind 7), Zaps (Kind 9734/9735), and anything else you can think of.

Creating and adding workflows

With n8n and Nostrobots installed, you can now create or add any kind of Nostr Workflow Automation.

• Click "Add workflow" to go to the workflow builder screen,
• If you would like to build your own workflow, you can start with adding any node. Click "+" and see what is available. Type "Nostr" to explore the Nostrobots nodes you have added,
• If you would like to add workflows that someone else has built, click "..." in the top right. Then click "import from URL" and paste in the URL of any workflow you would like to use (including the ones I share later in this article).

Nostr Workflow Automations

It's time to build some things!

A simple form to post a note to Nostr

I started very simply. I needed to delegate the ability to post to Npubs that I own in order that a (future) team can test things for me. I don't want to worry about managing or training those people on how to use keys, and I want to revoke access easily.

I needed a basic form with credentials that posted a Note.

For this I can use a very simple workflow–

• A n8n Form node – Creates a form for users to enter the note they wish to post. Allows for the form to be protected by a username and password. This node is the workflow "trigger" so that the workflow runs each time the form is submitted.
• A Set node – Allows me to set some variables, in this case I set the relays that I intend to use. I typically add a Set node immediately following the trigger node, and put all the variables I need in this. It helps to make the workflows easier to update and maintain.
• A Nostr Write node (from Nostrobots) – Writes a Kind-1 note to the Nostr network. It accepts Nostr credentials, the output of the Form node, and the relays from the Set node, and posts the Note to those relays.

Once the workflow is built, you can test it with the testing form URL, and set it to "Active" to use the production form URL. That's it. You can now give posting access to anyone for any Npub. To revoke access, simply change the credentials or set to workflow to "Inactive".

It may also be the world's simplest Nostr client.

You can find the Nostr Form to Post a Note workflow here.

Push notifications on mentions and new notes

One of the things Nostr is not very good at is push notifications. Furthermore I have some unique itches to scratch. I want–

• To make sure I never miss a note addressed to any of my Npubs – For this I want a push notification any time any Nostr user mentions any of my Npubs,
• To make sure I always see all notes from key accounts – For this I need a push notification any time any of my Npubs post any Notes to the network,
• To get these notifications on all of my devices – Not just my phone where my Nostr regular client lives, but also on each of my laptops to suit wherever I am working that day.

I needed to build a Nostr push notifications solution.

To build this workflow I had to string a few ideas together–

• Triggering the node on a schedule – Nostrobots does not include a trigger node. As every workflow starts with a trigger we needed a different method. I elected to run the workflow on a schedule of every 10-minutes. Frequent enough to see Notes while they are hot, but infrequent enough to not burden public relays or get rate-limited,
• Storing a list of Npubs in a Nostr list – I needed a way to store the list of Npubs that trigger my notifications. I initially used an array defined in the workflow, this worked fine. Then I decided to try Nostr lists (NIP-51, kind 30000). By defining my list of Npubs as a list published to Nostr I can control my list from within a Nostr client (e.g. Listr.lol or Nostrudel.ninja). Not only does this "just work", but because it's based on Nostr lists automagically Amethyst client allows me to browse that list as a Feed, and everyone I add gets notified in their Mentions,
• Using specific relays – I needed to query the right relays, including my own HAVEN relay inbox for notes addressed to me, and wss://purplepag.es for Nostr profile metadata,
• Querying Nostr events (with Nostrobots) – I needed to make use of many different Nostr queries and use quite a wide range of what Nostrobots can do–
  • I read the EventID of my Kind 30000 list, to return the desired pubkeys,
  • For notifications on mentions, I read all Kind 1 notes that mention that pubkey,
  • For notifications on new notes, I read all Kind 1 notes published by that pubkey,
  • Where there are notes, I read the Kind 0 profile metadata event of that pubkey to get the displayName of the relevant Npub,
  • I transform the EventID into a Nevent to help clients find it.
• Using the Nostr URI – As I did with my NFC card article, I created a link with the nostr: URI prefix so that my phone's native client opens the link by default,
• Push notifications solution – I needed a push notifications solution. I found many with n8n integrations and chose to go with Pushover which supports all my devices, has a free trial, and is unfairly cheap with a $5-per-device perpetual license.

Once the workflow was built, lists published, and Pushover installed on my phone, I was fully set up with push notifications on Nostr. I have used these workflows for several weeks now and made various tweaks as I went. They are feeling robust and I'd welcome you to give them a go.

You can find the Nostr Push Notification If Mentioned here and If Posts a Note here.

In speaking with other Nostr users while I was building this, there are all kind of other needs for push notifications too – like on replies to a certain bookmarked note, or when a followed Npub starts streaming on zap.stream. These are all possible.

Use my workflows

I have open sourced all my workflows at my Github with MIT license and tried to write complete docs, so that you can import them into your n8n and configure them for your own use.

To import any of my workflows–

• Click on the workflow of your choice, e.g. "Nostr_Push_Notify_If_Mentioned.json",
• Click on the "raw" button to view the raw JSON, ex any Github page layout,
• Copy that URL,
• Enter that URL in the "import from URL" dialog mentioned above.

To configure them–

• Prerequisites, credentials, and variables are all stated,
• In general any variables required are entered into a Set Node that follows the trigger node,
• Pushover has some extra setup but is very straightforward and documented in the workflow.

What next?

Over my first four blogs I explored creating a good Nostr setup with Vanity Npub, Lightning Payments, Nostr Addresses at Your Domain, and Personal Nostr Relay.

Then in my latest two blogs I explored different types of interoperability with NFC cards and now n8n Workflow Automation.

Thinking ahead n8n can power any kind of interoperability between Nostr and any other legacy technology solution. On my mind as I write this:

• Further enhancements to posting and delegating solutions and forms (enhanced UI or different note kinds),
• Automated or scheduled posting (such as auto-liking everything Lyn Alden posts),
• Further enhancements to push notifications, on new and different types of events (such as notifying me when I get a new follower, on replies to certain posts, or when a user starts streaming),
• All kinds of bridges, such as bridging notes to and from Telegram, Slack, or Campfire. Or bridging RSS or other event feeds to Nostr,
• All kinds of other automation (such as BlackCoffee controlling a coffee machine),
• All kinds of AI Assistants and Agents,

In fact I have already released an open source workflow for an AI Assistant, and will share more about that in my next blog.

Please be sure to let me know if you think there's another Nostr topic you'd like to see me tackle.

GM Nostr.

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

Here are my predictions for Nostr in 2025:

Decentralization: The outbox and inbox communication models, sometimes referred to as the Gossip model, will become the standard across the ecosystem. By the end of 2025, all major clients will support these models, providing seamless communication and enhanced decentralization. Clients that do not adopt outbox/inbox by then will be regarded as outdated or legacy systems.

Privacy Standards: Major clients such as Damus and Primal will move away from NIP-04 DMs, adopting more secure protocol possibilities like NIP-17 or NIP-104. These upgrades will ensure enhanced encryption and metadata protection. Additionally, NIP-104 MLS tools will drive the development of new clients and features, providing users with unprecedented control over the privacy of their communications.

Interoperability: Nostr's ecosystem will become even more interconnected. Platforms like the Olas image-sharing service will expand into prominent clients such as Primal, Damus, Coracle, and Snort, alongside existing integrations with Amethyst, Nostur, and Nostrudel. Similarly, audio and video tools like Nostr Nests and Zap.stream will gain seamless integration into major clients, enabling easy participation in live events across the ecosystem.

Adoption and Migration: Inspired by early pioneers like Fountain and Orange Pill App, more platforms will adopt Nostr for authentication, login, and social systems. In 2025, a significant migration from a high-profile application platform with hundreds of thousands of users will transpire, doubling Nostr’s daily activity and establishing it as a cornerstone of decentralized technologies.