@ 7f6db517:a4931eda

For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

---

Microsoft Cloud hiring to "implement global small modular reactor and microreactor" strategy to power data centers: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-cloud-hiring-to-implement-global-small-modular-reactor-and-microreactor-strategy-to-power-data-centers/

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If you found this post helpful support my work with bitcoin.

@ 623893fc:f8e3eaad

testing something

@ 623893fc:f8e3eaad

testing some top secret business

@ 0689c075:2936ee11

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@ b83a28b7:35919450

I posted on nostr last week that I had finally had enough of the fiat job and decided to take action:

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpwp69zm7fewjp0vkp306adnzt7249ytxhz7mq3w5yc629u6er9zsqythwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2ap0qyghwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnhd9hx2tcqyr604hwzr8vvluvp8y0s42gu4x0e725cetugnh7g293g9cggtpujww6vn8n

I'm going to document my journey from being in a well-established and well-paying fiat job into the unknown world of independent work in freedom tech in a series of articles. Will I end up finding something truly inspiring and fulfilling, while being able to support my family? We'll find out over the course of the next few weeks.

---

They say a watched pot never boils, but I’ve discovered a corollary: a watched lay-off never lands. It has now been ten full rotations of this curious planet since I politely asked my SVP to lay me off. The axe remains lodged somewhere in upper-management limbo, perhaps awaiting the proper ceremonial robe or a Procrustean bed that meets quarterly OKR standards.

While the paperwork drifts in the stratosphere, I’ve begun a quiet, delicious rebellion. My calendar, once a Tetris board stacked with 10–12 neon bricks of back-to-back calls, now resembles minimalist art: a single meeting block lounging at 11 a.m., sipping espresso and judging the empty white space around it. When unreasonable requests for road-maps, slide-decks, or seventeen-page AI vision statements arrive, I respond with the calm of a mountain lake: That timeline seems ambitious... shall we refine the scope? The sound you hear is the collective gasp of colleagues who thought the only acceptable answer was Yes, by yesterday.

With those reclaimed hours I’ve slipped into my mad-scientist lab (occasionally also known as sofa in the guest bedroom, or Orange Room) to experiment on MKStack. Imagine a Lego set for nostr clients, only the bricks are pure code and half the instructions are written in the margin of a philosophy book. I’m vibecoding away, torching roughly thirty thousand sats in compute every day as GPUs hum like distant Tibetan bowls. An accountant might call it reckless; I call it tuition for the University of Possibility.

The experiments are already bearing odd fruit. NosFabrica, the health-data-on-nostr project I started with nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcqpqt8pwzkkhhs94e9acgw9jwca9csyl7a4tnpdttu05039um5j7d6xskflc8d and nostr:nprofile1qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9uq3qamnwvaz7tmwdaehgu3wd4hk6tcqyprqcf0xst760qet2tglytfay2e3wmvh9asdehpjztkceyh0s5r9cpvx58v is finally getting the attention it deserves. I've built out a simple prototype for a provider directory, that only lists providers with a "credential" issued by me. I'm polishing the app now, but hope to release it for testing in the next couple of weeks.

Most gratifying of all, I’ve traded status meetings for sideline cheers. My 14-yo son is sprinting toward his final exams and soccer playoffs simultaneously - Hegel might call it thesis and antithesis, I call it Tuesday. Instead of doom-scrolling Microsoft Teams during his matches, I’m barking out instructions to him to stay onside, while curbing my desire to manhandle the incompetent refs for not calling a penalty when he's clearly being roughhoused in the box by 190-lb defenders with neck beards and chest hair.

Here’s an unexpected twist: without the daily psychic smog of corporate urgency, the sky inside my skull has cleared. Ideas that once flickered like fireflies now glow with stadium lighting. I have sketched three chapters of the sequel to 24 (called July 18), and outlined a new creative project called A Muse Stochastic (coming soon). I don’t know which, if any, of these seedlings will grow, but the soil finally feels fertile again.

Do I worry about the math? Of course. The household budget once kept afloat by a predictable salary will soon meet the iceberg of reality. Yet the anxiety is strangely weightless, as though the fear itself got furloughed. Maybe it’s naïveté, maybe faith; either way, the net I cannot see is starting to feel palpable beneath my feet.

Ten days in, the lessons are already crystallizing:

• Silence is space. Remove a dozen meetings and the mind blooms faster than AWS bills.

• Pushback is a spiritual practice. Each gentle “no” to nonsense is a “yes” to sanity.

• Compute credits are cheaper than regrets. I’ll trade a double espresso's worth of GPU time for a shot at building the future any day.

• Presence compounds. One extra hour on the training pitch yields more familial ROI than a dozen performance reviews.

• Uncertainty is a mirror. Stare into it long enough and you start seeing yourself, not your résumé.

Where does this road lead? I genuinely have no clue. The map dissolves about three steps ahead, like one of those old adventure games where the terrain renders just before you walk off a cliff. But every time I inch forward, the ground materializes. The net appears.

Next week, perhaps I’ll report that the corporate guillotine finally fell, or that I’ve secured my first contract, or that my son aced biology while scoring the winning goal. Whatever unfolds, I’ll keep threading these reflections into the loom of “The Net Appears.” After all, an abyss is just an invitation to practice flight.

Until then, may your own invisible nets breeze into view exactly when you need them, and may they be woven from stronger stuff than corporate lanyards.

@ c5d54dd3:e4a3dfc6

I've been working on a few Python scripts to help automate and improve some Lightning node management tasks and wanted to share them with the community. I've bundled them into a GitHub repository called

Lightning-Python-Tools

You can find it here: https://github.com/TrezorHannes/Lightning-Python-Tools

Here's a quick rundown of a few scripts inside:

fee_adjuster.py: This script pulls data from your LNDg database and public fee market data from Amboss. It allows you to build your own custom heuristics for managing your outbound and inbound channel fees automatically.

pocketmoney.py: Leveraging your LNBits instance, this tool can trigger regular, scheduled payments. It's perfect for things like sending pocket money to your children's wallets.

peerswap-lndg_push.py: For those using Peerswap, this script makes your Peerswap-enabled channels visible in your LNDg dashboard and conveniently enters your past swap history as a note.

boltz_swap-out.py: This is a command-line interface (CLI) tool for performing submarine swaps with Boltz. It intelligently suggests swaps based on your most outbound-heavy channels, again by feeding data from LNDg.

Disclaimer & Call for Contributions This is an open-source project. Please use it at your own risk. I welcome everyone to fork the repository, create pull requests to make the scripts more robust and versatile, or open issues with suggestions.

I'm also very keen to get your feedback. What other tools could be built to make a node runner's life easier? Let me know your thoughts!

https://stacker.news/items/1002005

@ 4b3b215f:b091b1f9

Actualizado: Agosto 10, 2024

⚠️ Advertencia: Esta guía tiene el objetivo de proporcionar información educativa sobre cómo empezar a aceptar Bitcoin en tu negocio. No se ofrece ni se vende ningún servicio relacionado con Bitcoin. Es esencial que sepas que NO DEBES confiar en terceros que te ofrezcan productos o servicios relacionados con Bitcoin, ya que el uso y la gestión de Bitcoin deben ser autónomos y soberanos.

Recuerda: ¡Bitcoin es tu camino hacia la libertad financiera! No confíes en terceros que te ofrezcan productos o servicios para aceptar o utilizar Bitcoin. Bitcoin es dinero, y no necesitas a nadie más para comenzar a usarlo.

¡No aceptes ni pagues por servicios de Bitcoin, tú puedes hacerlo por ti mismo!

¡No confíes, verifica! ₿

¿Qué es Bitcoin?

Bitcoin es una forma de efectivo electrónico entre pares, una moneda digital que puede transferirse entre personas o computadoras sin necesidad de intermediarios confiables como los bancos. A diferencia de los pagos tradicionales que requieren servicios intermedios como tarjetas de crédito o plataformas de pago digital, Bitcoin permite transacciones directas entre usuarios, preservando así la privacidad y la independencia financiera. Es una alternativa descentralizada al dinero digital controlado centralmente, ofreciendo seguridad y autonomía a sus usuarios.

Además, Bitcoin ofrece una solución a la dependencia de sistemas de pago digitales centralizados, los cuales pueden ser utilizados para el control y la vigilancia gubernamental. Al utilizar una red de computadoras interconectadas, Bitcoin garantiza la verificación independiente de las transacciones y la aplicación de reglas consensuadas, lo que permite un sistema de pagos más transparente y resistente a la censura.

¿Qué es Lightning? ⚡️

La red lightning (Lightning Network) es una red global de pagos de Bitcoin que ofrece transacciones instantáneas, privadas y de bajo o nulo costo. Propuesta en 2015, permite transacciones de Bitcoin más rápidas, económicas y privadas fuera de la cadena de bloques de Bitcoin. Es lo que se conoce como una tecnologîa de capa 2 (L2), con Bitcoin siendo la capa 1 (L1).

A diferencia de las redes bancarias tradicionales, lightning network ofrece liquidación instantánea, sin contracargos y utiliza Bitcoin como su activo subyacente. Aborda un desafío clave para Bitcoin al permitir la escalabilidad para un gran número de usuarios que realizan numerosos pagos.

Esta innovadora red de pagos es sin fronteras, abierta, económica e instantánea, ofreciendo pagos instantáneos, económicos e interoperables en todo el mundo. Los pagos enrutados a través de Lightning se mueven a la velocidad de la luz y son definitivos al llegar, eliminando los retrasos y riesgos asociados con los métodos de pago tradicionales.

*Una poderosa analogía para explicar cómo funciona el Lightning Network.

¿Qué hay de todos estos hacks y quiebras de intercambios?

La base de datos de la cadena de bloques de Bitcoin nunca ha sido hackeada. En sus 15 años de existencia, Bitcoin ha demostrado ser el sistema digital más seguro del mundo y el sistema monetario más confiable jamás inventado. Nunca se ha emitido moneda falsa en la red.

La seguridad de Bitcoin radica en su naturaleza descentralizada. Opera a través de una red de computadoras, llamadas nodos, que se comunican para construir y actualizar la base de datos. Cada nodo almacena una copia de la cadena de bloques, lo que hace virtualmente imposible que los hackers comprometan toda la red. Además, Bitcoin permite a los usuarios mantener sus fondos de forma segura en billeteras personales, reduciendo el riesgo asociado con los exchanges (Intercambios) de terceros. Si dejas tus bitcoins en un intercambio o con cualquier tercero, estás asumiendo un riesgo enorme que, para pequeñas cantidades, puede ser razonable a cambio de conveniencia. Pero piénsalo muy bien.

Si bien Bitcoin opera principalmente a través de internet, incluso en casos de interrupciones de internet, la cadena de bloques permanece intacta. Los nodos continúan almacenando los bloques, asegurando la seguridad y la integridad del sistema. Mientras haya por lo menos un nodo conectado, Bitcoin seguira operando sin interrupciones, es decir, para que Bitcoin deje de funcionar, tendria que caerse el internet en todo el mundo al mismo tiempo, lo cual es poco probable. En caso de una divergencia de red, los nodos pueden reconciliarse y acordar cuál es la cadena de bloques objetivamente más válida a seguir, manteniendo la robustez y seguridad de Bitcoin.

¿Por qué Debería Mi Negocio Aceptar Bitcoin?

En primer lugar, para atraer Bitcoiners. Los Bitcoiners son leales y están altamente motivados a buscar negocios que acepten Bitcoin. Con Bitcoin, puedes recibir pagos las 24 horas del día, los 7 días de la semana, los 365 días del año, sin la necesidad de esperar por días hábiles. Además, no hay contracargos y las tarifas de transacción son muy bajas o casi nulas gracias a la red Lightning.

Bitcoin es Bueno para los Negocios

Bitcoin te permite recibir pagos directamente de tus clientes, al igual que el efectivo. La red Bitcoin opera sin intermediarios como bancos y compañías de tarjetas de crédito, evitando las tarifas elevadas asociadas. Los pagos con Bitcoin se liquidan instantáneamente gracias a la red Lightning, eliminando la espera en comparación con los métodos tradicionales. Además, al ocurrir directamente entre tú y tus clientes, es imposible que alguien te quite el dinero mediante un contracargo. Además, el Bitcoin falsificado no puede ser enviado en la red Bitcoin, lo que asegura la integridad de las transacciones y protege a tu negocio de fraudes financieros.

Al aceptar Bitcoin, atraes más clientes, ya que millones de personas poseen Bitcoin y desean gastarlo en lugares que lo acepten.

Aceptar Bitcoin es completamente gratuito y te brinda la oportunidad de aparecer en mapas de comerciantes de Bitcoin, lo que facilita que los usuarios encuentren tu negocio con facilidad.

Pero, Bitcoin no está regulado. ¿Cómo puedo declarar impuestos si acepto Bitcoin en mi negocio?

Muy bien, antes de comenzar, déjame decirte que el no estar regulado es una cualidad, no un defecto. Bitcoin no lo controla nadie, pero es de todos y está disponible para cualquiera que desee usarlo sin necesidad de pedir permiso. Bitcoin no necesita permiso!

Estamos hablando de una forma superior de dinero y la mejor tecnología de ahorro jamás inventada por los humanos. Aceptar Bitcoin es como recibir efectivo: simplemente registras la venta y te llevas el dinero en efectivo a casa. ¿Acaso cuando recibes efectivo, le tomas fotografías a los billetes para enviárselas al gobierno? Eso pensé.

Bitcoin representa la separación entre el estado y el dinero; no es necesario que el estado sepa cuántos Bitcoin tienes. Si un amigo fuera a tu negocio de hamburguesas y te pagara con canicas, ¿le avisarías al gobierno que tu amigo te ha pagado con canicas? Probablemente no. Registra la venta como efectivo en tus libros contables y guarda tu Bitcoin. Es TU dinero, y tienes derecho a mantenerlo privado.

Se recomienda que cuando poseas un saldo importante de Bitcoin, lo retires a una billetera fría. Imagina que recibes efectivo todo el día en tu negocio; al final del día, ¿dejarías todo ese dinero en la caja? Probablemente no sería una buena idea. Muchos negocios retiran su efectivo al final del día o de la semana y lo depositan en un banco o en una caja fuerte en algún lugar seguro. Haz lo mismo con tu Bitcoin: una vez que tengas un saldo mayor del que llevarías cómodamente en el bolsillo, retíralo a una billetera fría.

Bitcoin ES dinero. No es una divisa, ni una inversión, ni acciones, y mucho menos "sujeto a impuestos". Los impuestos son un robo, punto. No importa lo que tu gobierno te diga: Bitcoin es simplemente dinero.

Si no sabes la diferencia entre el dinero y una divisa (Money and Currency), te invito a revisar la siguiente imagen.

Para todos los "amantes de los impuestos" que vienen a decir "Pero el gobierno regulará Bitcoin" o "El gobierno le impondrá impuestos a mi Bitcoin", solo les digo: ¡Pon tu mierda en orden! El dinero no está sujeto a impuestos, punto.

Si realmente deseas utilizarlo para fines comerciales y por tu propia tranquilidad mental, en tus libros contables, decláralo como "ingreso en efectivo". Así de simple: no es asunto del gobierno saber qué tipo de "efectivo" posees. No es asunto suyo lo que haces con tu dinero.

¿Cuál es la diferencia entre billeteras custodiales y no custodiales?

Cuando se trata de billeteras de Bitcoin, hay dos tipos principales: custodiales y no custodiales.

Las billeteras custodiales son como tener tu dinero en un banco. Confías en el proveedor de la billetera para mantener seguro tu Bitcoin y manejar todo por ti. Es conveniente y rápido, especialmente para cantidades pequeñas, pero recuerda, no tienes control total sobre tu Bitcoin. Estás confiando en el proveedor de la billetera para gestionarlo por ti.

Por otro lado, las billeteras no custodiales te dan control total. Tienes tus propias claves y puedes hacer una copia de seguridad de tu billetera. Esto significa que tú eres quien controla tu Bitcoin y puedes moverlo como quieras. Es como guardar efectivo en tu propia caja fuerte en casa. Recuerda, en una billetera no custodial, tú eres el único responsable de tus Bitcoins. Si pierdes u olvidas tus claves (llaves), nadie podrá ayudarte.

Si bien las billeteras custodiales están bien para empezar y para cantidades pequeñas, te recomendamos continuar con tu educación sobre Bitcoin y, eventualmente, pasar a una solución no custodial. Esto te da más control, soberanía, y seguridad sobre tu Bitcoin a largo plazo. Así que, comienza con una billetera custodial como Blink o Wallet Of Satoshi para familiarizarte con Bitcoin, pero apunta a cambiar a una billetera no custodial una vez que te sientas cómodo y listo.

Cómo Aceptar Pagos en Bitcoin

Todo lo que necesitas para aceptar pagos en Bitcoin es una billetera como Blink. Por otro lado, con una billetera híbrida como Wallib, puedes convertir automáticamente los pagos de Bitcoin que recibes a COP.

También puedes optar por ahorrar y mantener una parte de los pagos en Bitcoin, lo que ofrece muchos beneficios a largo plazo.

Ahorra en Bitcoin.

1) Descarga la aplicación:

Bitcoin es una red abierta y hay muchas aplicaciones (wallets) que te permites enviar, recibir, y guardar Bitcoin. Para comenzar, te recomendamos la aplicación Blink Wallet.

Al final de esta guía hay una lista de wallets (billeteras) recomendadas. Pero recuerda, no creas todo lo que lees y haz tu propia investigación.

2) Crea una cuenta:

Una vez que descargues la app, deberas ingresar tu numero de teléfono para registrarte, ya que Blink es una billetera custodial. Pero descuida, no debes dar datos personales adicionales para crear una cuenta.

Una vez ingreses tu teléfono, recibirás un mensaje de texto con un código que deberas ingresar para terminar con el proceso de verificación.

Cuando este configurada, veras la pantalla principal donde está tu balance, tus transacciones, etc. Explora la aplicación y familiarizarte con todas sus opciones.

3) Recibir y enviar Bitcoin:

Ya estas listo para recibir Bitcoin de cualquier persona y desde cualquier lugar, sin importar que aplicacion de lightning usen. Al instante y casi gratis. Esta es la maravilla de la red lightning de Bitcoin!

Aceptar Bitcoin en Persona y en Línea

Aceptar pagos en Bitcoin, ya sea en persona o en línea, es sencillo utilizando tu billetera. Puedes integrar Bitcoin como opción de pago en tu tienda en línea o utilizar la función de "recibir" en tu billetera para recibir pagos en persona. Además, puedes compartir la dirección de pago a través de plataformas como WhatsApp, Instagram, etc.

Cómo Atraer Más Clientes Aceptando Bitcoin

Millones de usuarios de Bitcoin desean gastar sus bitcoins en negocios que los acepten. Al aceptar Bitcoin, puedes aparecer en mapas de comerciantes de Bitcoin como BTC Map de forma gratuita y aumentar tu exposición a nuevos clientes potenciales.

Costo de Aceptar Bitcoin

Aceptar Bitcoin en tu negocio es 100% gratuito. No hay contratos ni tarifas ocultas. No confíes en terceros que te ofrezcan productos o servicios para aceptar o utilizar Bitcoin. Bitcoin es dinero, y no necesitas a nadie más para comenzar a usarlo.

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Acepta Bitcoin Ahora! ⚡️

A continuación, algunas billeteras, apps y herramientas que recomendamos.

Billeteras Custodiales

Blink - Billetera móvil de Bitcoin y Lightning

Wallet Of Satoshi - Billetera móvil de Bitcoin y Lightning

Sati - Billetera de Bitcoin y Lightning en WhatsApp

CoinOS - Billetera web (BTC/LN/Liquid)

Alby - Extensión de explorador y web

Billeteras No Custodiales

Phoenix - Billetera móvil de Lightning

Blue Wallet - Billetera móvil y de escritorio de Bitcoin y Lightning.

Green Wallet - Billetera móvil y de escritorio de Bitcoin y Lightning (beta) para principiantes.

Sparrow - Billetera de escritorio solo de Bitcoin (L1 - onchain)

Electrum - Billetera móvil y de escritorio de Bitcoin y Lightning.

Zeus LN - Nodo móvil y billetera de bitcoin y lightning para usuarios avanzados.

Blixt Wallet - Nodo móvil y billetera de Bitcoin y Lightning para usuarios avanzados.

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Lecturas Recomendadas

1. "La Tesis Alcista de Bitcoin” por Vijay Boyapati [Lectura]
2. "Bitcoin: ¿qué, cómo y para qué?” de Franco Amati [Lectura]
3. “El Patrón Bitcoin” por Saifedean Ammous [Lectura]

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Más Recursos

• El Libro De Bitcoin Mas Simple Jamas Escrito - Por Kaysa Luna (Descarga PDF)

• Las 5 Etapas Para Convertirse En Un Bitcoiner

• Simple Bitcoin App - Aprende sobre Bitcoin y gana premios (Como Duolingo pero para Bitcoin)

• Lee El White Paper de Satoshi Nakamoto En Español

• Estudio Bitcoin - Entra en la madriguera del conejo y aprende mas sobre Bitcoin

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalna diskusija na reddit.com iz juna 2025

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"Sindrom poremećenosti zbog Bitkoina proističe iz niza zabrinutosti, od pitanja legitimnosti novca, straha da je reč o Ponzijevoj šemi, da je to trojanski konj strane države, da je pomama stvorena za špekulante, do zabrinutosti zbog uticaja rudarenja na životnu sredinu.

Simptomi sindroma poremećenosti zbog Bitkoina (BDS) uključuju odbacivanje svih pozitivnih aspekata povezanih s Bitkoinom uz neodoljivu potrebu da se on prikaže u negativnom svetlu. Sindrom izgleda kao rezultat postepene akumulacije ogorčenja i osećaja da su zakasnili s kupovinom Bitkoina.

Umesto da imaju poniznosti da priznaju da su pogrešili u vezi s Bitkoinom, oni sada posvećuju svoje vreme beznadežnim pokušajima napada na njega i zagovaranju njegovog neuspeha kako bi dokazali da su bili u pravu.

Nije važno ako se više pojedinaca pridruži Bitkoin mreži, ako se pridruže velike kompanije, male zemlje, niti ako globalna plaćanja učini efikasnijim i ako ga korisnici koriste po sopstvenoj volji; oboleli od BDS-a odbijaju da veruju da pojedinci mogu delovati samostalno, već to mora biti neki kult ili potreba za kockanjem.

Ne postoji nijedan argument koji bi mogao promeniti njihovo mišljenje". - The Bitcoin Manual

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Diskusija tokom koje se autor posta usled svog neznanja, pogrešne informisanosti ili čak straha, nepovratno upleo "kao pile u kučine".

Mada moram priznati da su određeni delovi njegovog izlaganja, naročito tačke 7) i 8), najbolje reklame za Bitkoin koje bi svakog racionalnog ekonomskog aktera navele na dugoročnu akumulaciju ovog novog oblika novca. Koji razlozi mogu navesti racionalnog učesnika na tržištu koji sledi svoj interes da ignoriše Bitkoin kao novi oblik novca dok se nalazi u fazi svoje monetizacije?

U svojim odgovorima sam pokušao da mu otvoreno ukažem na apsurdnost i nelogičnost njegovih tvrdnji ali sam nailazio na prilično mršave odgovore koji su se više svodili na puko ponavljanje uobičajenih dezinformacija iz klasičnih medija nego autentično i nezavisno mišljenje ovog korisnika Reddita.

Na kraju sam prestao da odgovaram zato što je postalo besmisleno. Ovekovečićemo ga ovde na Nostru i prepustiti vremenu da bude sudija. Za desetak godina će ova debata završiti u sekciji "Retrovizor" pa će analiza sa decenijske distance biti izrazito zanimljiva.

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Originalni post

1. Zagovornici bitkoina ga lažno predstavljaju kao rješenje za skoro sve probleme i nešto što će stvoriti nekakvu utopiju. Pritom vrše vrlo agresivnu i toksičnu propagandu. Troše svoj već prilično jak finansijski položaj na lobiranje i uticaj na vladu. Tako su uspjeli da Ameriku okrenu da postane žestoko pro-kripto.

2. Petljanje vlada u kripto svijet omogućava im da tempiraju pumpanje i dumpanje bitkoina (ali i drugih kriptovaluta), prethodno obavijstivši one koje žele da obavijeste, što bi vladi dalo još jedan mehanizam da finansijski nagradi one koji rade za nju razne stvari, ili prosto svoju insajdersku vrhušku, koja bi se time mogla bogati na račun svih ostalih.

3. Vlade su sve bliže tome da počnu koristiti novac poreskih obveznika za ulaganje u bitkoin.

4. Bitkoin se predstavlja kao rješenje problema inflacije, a to je samo djelimično tačno. Ako držiš bitkoin duže od 4 godine, bićeš u plusu - tako je bilo barem zasad. Međutim, na kraći rok oscilacije cijene bitkoina su ogromne. Pad od 80% u roku od godinu dana je normalna stvar. A to kad bi se prevelo na standardni ekonomski jezik u kome se priča o inflaciji značilo bi godišnju inflaciju od 400%. Znači bitkoin rutinski ima stopu inflacije od 400%, a vole da prozivaju fiat valute i za mnogo manju inflaciju tipa već od 5% do 10%, to im je kao mnogo.

5. Centralne banke generalno i Fed konkretno, sa svim svojim manama, i uz sve negativne epizode, kad je bila hiperinflacija, istorijski su ipak odigrale i još uvijek igraju pozitivnu ulogu: obezbjeđuju kakvu takvu stabilnost cijena i podstiču veću zaposlenost. To je taj dual mandat feda. Bez centralnih banaka i njihovih intervencija, ekonomske krize bi bile češće i oštrije, a kada se dese, ne bi bilo lakog izlaza iz istih. Trajale bi duže. Bitkoin se protiv centralnih banaka bori. (Ili se bar borio, a sad sve češće odustaje od svojih ideala i sarađuje sa tradicionalnim finansijskim sektorom - što meni ukazuje na to da ti ideali možda nikad nisu ni bili iskreni, već da se narativ prilagođava situaciji, a da je jedino bitno da se u svakom trenutku ima neki narativ koji bi opravdao "number goes up")

6. Jedan od glavnih motora moderne ekonomije je sistem frakcionalnih rezervi koji omogućava bankama da lako daju kredite po relativno povoljnim kamatnim stopama. To ponekad može zaista i dovesti do krize, kad se banke previše opuste, a računaju na Fed ili neku drugu centralnu banku da ih čupa ako upadnu u dubiozu. Tako je bilo 2008. Ali ne treba zbog jedne loše epizode odustati od cijelog tog sistema. Prisustvo jeftinih i lako dostupnih kredita sa niskim kamatnim stopama je jako bitna i povoljna za ekonomiju. Zamislite kad toga ne bi bilo, kad bi ljudi morali za svaku krupnu kupovinu da prvo uštede, pa da onda kupuju u kešu. Niko ne bi mogao kupiti stan prije 50. ili 60. godine. A šta će ti stan sa 50 ili 60 godina?! Porodica se zasniva mnogo ranije. Isto tako, mnoge firme ne bi mogle dobiti kredite za započinjanje ili proširenje poslovanja, što bi usporilo inovaciju i rast produktivnosti. Bitkoin standard koga zagovirnici zagovaraju, podrazumijevao bi mnogo skuplje i teže dostupne kredite, jer tu ne bi bilo mogućnosti za lako uvećavanje novčane mase. Samim tim to bi bilo vrlo nepovoljno za ekonomski rast.

7. Bitkoin bi izazvao i deflaciju cijena (izraženih u bitkoinu, pod pretpostavkom da on postane glavna valuta), koja je takođe vrlo nepovoljna za ekonomski rast. Evo primjera kakve je probleme deflacija svojevremeno izazvala u Japanu: Under deflation, the value of cash increases as time passes. In such a situation, Japanese companies began to cut wages, research and development, and other investments, opting to hold onto cash instead. This tendency, coinciding with the acceleration of the aging population, gradually diminished the competitiveness of the economy and the potential growth rate of the country. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Japanese government has focused on halting the deflation and eventually achieving the 2% inflation target since the early 2000s. However, as deflation persisted, the traditional monetary policy of setting low interest rates to stimulate investment and consumption, which typically causes inflation, became ineffective. This ineffectiveness arose because a nominal rate of 0% effectively meant a positive real rate due to the increasing value of cash. This phenomenon is known as the zero lower bound.

8. Istovremeno, bitkoin (ali samo pod uslovom da bude na putu da postane glavna svjetska valuta) bi izazvao terminalnu inflaciju cijena u svim drugim valutama - tj. njihovu demonetizaciju. Kako bi se bitkoin sve više monetizovao, tako bi se ostale valute, ali i ostali asseti demonetizovali. To bi značilo ogroman transfer bogatstva od onih koji nemaju bitkoin ili kupe kasno, kao onima koji imaju, naročito onima koji imaju mnogo i koji su kupili rano po ekstremno niskoj cijeni. Znači bukvalno, rani vlasnici bitkoina bi se bogatili na račun svih ostalih. I to im je zapravo i cilj. To je jedini razlog zašto toliko promovišu bitkoin - svi ostali narativi, te borba protiv inflacije, te digitalno zlato, te ovo, te ono, su zapravo samo priče i racionalizacije, a poenta je da se nagovaraju svi da nastave kupovati bitkoin, kako bi oni koji su kupili ranije, još više uvećali svoje bogatstvo. Tu činjenicu da bi bitkoin doveo do osiromašivanja svih koji nisu vlasnici bitkoina, prepoznala je Evropska centralna banka u jednom svom članku. Citiraću samo relevantan dio: While most economists argue that the Bitcoin boom is a speculative bubble that will eventually burst, we analyse in this paper the impact of a Bitcoin-positive scenario in which its price continues to rise in the foreseeable future. What sounds intuitively promising or at least not harmful is problematic: Since Bitcoin does not increase the productive potential of the economy, the consequences of the assumed continued increase in value are essentially redistributive, i.e. the wealth effects on consumption of early Bitcoin holders can only come at the expense of consumption of the rest of society. If the price of Bitcoin rises for good, the existence of Bitcoin impoverishes both non-holders and latecomers. While previous discussions on the redistributive effects of Bitcoin assumed that badly timed trading was a necessary condition for losses, this paper shows that neither poor timing of trades nor holding Bitcoin at all are necessary for impoverishment under a Bitcoin-positive scenario.

9. To bi naravno uvećalo nejednakost u svijetu koja je ionako već sad ogromna, i prenijelo bi nejadnakost kakva vlada u samom bitkoin ekosistemu na cijeli svijet. A nejednakost koja vlada u bitkoin ekosistemu je toliko ekstremna da je to teško uopšte i zamisliti. Navešću samo par podataka (iz ovog izvora: bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html ) 0,03% najbogatijih bitkoin adresa (ili brojem: 18.651 adresa), drže 60,93% cjelokupne količine bitkoina. Sad zamislite da bitkoin postane dominantan oblik bogatstva u svijetu. Znači manje od 20.000 ljudi bi držalo preko 60% kompletnog svjetskog finansijskog bogatstva. Drugi podatak: 23.835.989 najbogatijih bitkoin adresa drži 99,97% cjelokupne količine bitkoina. Ili prostim jezikom, 24 miliona adresa, drže praktično SAV BITKOIN. Nećemo se zamajavati sa onih preostalih 0,03% bitkoina. To se može slobodno zanemariti. Znači sve što ima bitkoina u svijetu je u rukama 24 miliona ljudi. (A od toga preko 60% u rukama manje od 20.000 ljudi). Gdje smi mi ostali u svemu tome? Nema nas!!! Šta je sa 8.2 milijarde ljudi u svijetu? Ništa! Ko ih j... 24 miliona je samo 0,29% svjetske populacije. Tako da ako bi bitkoin zavladao - 20.000 ljudi bi držalo većinu svjetskog finansijskog bogatstva, 24 miliona bi imalo neke kao mrvice, a svi ostali, ne bi praktično imali NIŠTA. Nula. Nada. Sad naravno, promoteri bitkoina će reći kako meni račun nije dobar, jer su neki od najvećih vlasnika bitkoina kripto berze i ETF fondovi, i firme kao Strategy, koje su u vlasništvu velikog broja ljudi, pa je zapravo, po njima distribucija mnogo bolja nego što se to čini. Donekle su u pravu. Ali samo donekle. Ti isti zagovornici će preskočiti činjenicu da postoje i procesi koji čine da je distribucija zapravo još gora nego što se čini. Šta ako mnogi krupni vlasnici (whale-ovi) drže svoj bitkoin, ne na jednoj, nego na više adresa? A to je vrlo česta strategija, jer se plaše, ako slučajno izgube pristup jednoj adresi, ili im neko hakuje wallet ili se nešto desi... izgubiće samo dio bogastva, jer su rasporedili svoj bitkoin na možda desetak i više različitih adresa. Tako da, mogao bi se napraviti i case, da je taj mali broj najbogatihih bitkoina adresa zapravo u rukama još manjeg broja ljudi. Obe tendencije su donekle tačne. Procjenjuje se da institucije, vlade, fondovi, firme i na kraju sam Satoshi Nakamoto, drže ukupno 43% ukupne količine bitkoina. I za tih 43% (osim Satošijevog dijela), bi se možda moglo pretpostaviti da imaju malo bolju distribuciju, jer jedna adresa pokriva veći broj ljudi. Preostalih 57% drže pojedinci. U tom dijelu što drže pojedinci, vjerovatno gotovo cjelokupnu količinu drže krupni vlasnici - whaleovi, a svi ostali neku mizeriju. Bilo kako bilo, raspodjela bogatstva u bitkoinu je ekstremno nejednaka, i ako bi bitkoin postao jedan od dominantnih svjetskih oblika bogatstva, ta nejednakost iz tog ekosistema bi se prelila na cijeli svijet, što bi bilo poprilično distopijski.

10. Ovih 9 tačaka su moje glavne kritike bitkoina, ali bi se na njih mogle dodati i još neke kao što su problem potrošnje struje (koji je ipak donekle riješen halving mehanizmom, i zato bitkoin neće nikad trošiti mnogo više struje nego sad), problem elektronskog otpada, širenje raznih scamova, ransom napadi, i generalno širenje vrlo problematičnog, materijalističkog pogleda na svijet u kome je bitkoin ultimativni statusni simbol (barem u toj zajednici koja za sebe kaže da je orange pilled), a grozničavo štekanje satošija (stacking sats) i držanje istih (hodling), postaje smisao života.

11. Na kraju iznosim kritiku, koja se odnosi na razloge koji će najvjerovatnije dovesti i do ultimativnog pada i kolapsa bitkoina, zbog čega ćemo, nadam se, izbjeći distopijske scenarije o kojima sam govorio u prethodnim tačkama. Naime, bitkoin, sam po sebi, nije ništa posebno. Komplikovan je, nezgodan za korištenje, online novčanici mogu da se hakuju, pare koje se drže na kripto berzama mogu da nestanu, da budu ukradene, transakcije se ne mogu stornirati, ako se zezneš pa pošalješ na pogrešnu adresu, nepovratno si se zezno. Transakcije su skupe i nisu instantne, a kako pada reward majnerima, u budućnosti će izgledno biti još i skuplje. Layer 2 rješenja kao što je Lightning, ne mogu u potpunosti da riješe scaling problem i nisu jednako pouzdane kao glavni blokčejn. Na kraju, glavni zvanični value proposition bitkoina, to da je on dobar "čuvar vrijednosti" u praksi se pokazao jako loše. Kao prvo, imovina koja redovno trpi pad cijene od 70-80% ne može nikako biti dobar čuvar vrijednosti, sve i da se ti gubici na kraju nadoknade (kao što je dosad bio slučaj). Kao drugo, na dugi rok, bitkoin da bi bio dobar čuvar vrijednosti, ljudi moraju trajno da nastave da mu pripisuju visoku vrijednost, i čitava mašinerija majnera i nodova mora da nastavi u nedogled, danonoćno da radi i troši struju, samo da bi bitkoin uopšte nastavio da postoji. To ga čini veoma, veoma, krhkim na dugi rok, i to znači da je on, recimo, u odnosu na zlato, na dugi rok, neuporedivo lošiji čuvar vrijednosti. Zlato jednom kad imaš, imaš ga... ne treba mu nikakvo održavanje, ne mora postojati čitava skupa i energetski intenzivna infrastruktura da ga podržava. Zlato je samodovoljno. Osim toga, zlato ima i određenu intrinzičku vrijednost koja znači da nikad neće biti besplatno, sve i kad bi se ljudi odlučili da štede u nečemu drugom. Zlato je faktički rijetko i dragocijeno i ne traži nikakvo održavanje. Bitkoin sve to nije. Nema nikakvu intrinzičku vrijednost, i sva mu vrijednost dolazi od one vrijednosti koju mu ljudi pripisuju. Pritom zahtijeva konstantno energetski intenzivno održavanje. I na kraju čemu sve to? Da bi ponudilo neku finansijsku uslugu lošeg kvaliteta, bez osiguranja, sa redovnim padovima od 80% itd... Ljudi budite ozbiljni. Niko zapravo ne drži bitkoin radi štednje i kao neki čuvar vrijednosti. Zvanični value proposition (store of value, digital gold), je obmana i šarena laža. Međutim, postoji PRAVI, nezvanični value proposition kod bitkoina, a to je "number goes up". To je JEDINI PRAVI RAZLOG ZAŠTO LJUDI ZAPRAVO KUPUJU BITKOIN. Taj value proposition, koji bismo mogli nazvati raznim imenima kao što su "number goes up", "to the moon", ili prosto "moon narrative" je osnovni razlog zašto ljudi kupuju bitkoin. A on ne može da traje vječno. Da bi raniji investitori mogli da nastave da profitiraju i da se bogate, moraju stalno ulaziti novi investitori i ulagati sve veće i veće količine novca. To funkcioniše kao piramidalna ili ponci šema (Iako se ne radi o bukvalnoj ponci prevari). Što je veća cijena bitkoina, to su veći ulozi potrebni da bi se ona mogla nastaviti pumpati. Već vidimo da je svaki novi četvorogodišnji ciklus sve slabiji i slabiji od onih prethodnih. Rast je sve sporiji. Bliži se trenutak u kome više niko neće vjerovati pričama da je još rano "We're so early", niti da se neko novi ko sad ulazi u to sve, od toga zaista može obogatiti. Samim tim "moon narrative" postaje sve manje i manje kredibilan. A kad moon narrativ padne, pada i bitkoin, jer je on zapravo sve vrijeme i bio njegov jedini pravi value proposition. Bitkoin nije dobar čuvar vrijednosti, nije user friendly, ne pruža nikakvo osiguranje, i niko ga ne bi kupovao bez tog moon narrativa, jer postoje mnogo bolji finansijski proizvodi koji omogućavaju mnogo brže i jeftinije transakcije, koje su pritom osigurane, i bolji store of value.

Dakle kao zaključak, bitkoin će ili uspijeti ili propasti. Ako uspije, izvjesno je da će dovesti do distopije, ekstremne nejednakosti i do mnogo lošijeg stanja ekonomije nego što je to danas slučaj.

Ipak, mislim da je mnogo veća šansa da će propasti jer je njegov jedini pravi value proposition, a to je moon narrative, matematički i fizički neodrživ, a postoje mnogo bolje alternative, ako gledamo na bitkoin kao na neku pravu finansijsku uslugu.

U tom padu bitkoina, neki će izaći na vrijeme, biti u plusu, neće biti trauma, neki će izaći prekasno, izgubiće dosta, neki će ući onda kad treba izaći, pa će izgubiti sve, itd... U svakom slučaju, to će biti dosta nezgodan period za vlasnike, i dovešće do mnogo razočarenja. Ali kad se to sve završi, svijet će postati malo mudriji i iskusniji, i ostavićemo iza sebe još jednu veliku finansijsku iluziju, koja je potencijalno mogla dovesti i do velike distopije.

Odgovori

@BTCSRB: Odgovoriću kratko samo na deo o navodnom negativnom uticaju na ekonomiju iz razloga što ljudi ne žele da troše novac kojem vremenom raste vrednost. Ovo je lažna ekonomska dilema. Zašto? Zato što se ova dilema postavlja samo ako imate previše fiat novca. Ako je jedini novac koji imate Bitkoin (što bi u slučaju hipotetičkog scenarija da je BTC glavna svetska valuta bila uobičajena praksa), ova dilema praktično ne postoji jer bi onda po definiciji stvari morali da trošite.

Jer ako je BTC sve što imate, onda nije dilema da li treba da trošite BTC već da li UOPŠTE treba da trošite?

Logika trošenja Bitkoina

Što se tiče nejednakosti raspodele Bitkoina, mislim da će biti prosvetljujuće da pročitaš ovaj tekst.

Da li je raspodela Bitkoina pravična?

Ako imamo novac rođen na slobodnom tržištu, u slobodnom društvu, koji treba da zameni fiat novac, onda on ne može biti ravnomerno raspoređen od samog početka dok istovremeno svi ljudi cene njegovu vrednost – nužno mora proći kroz period kada ga samo nekolicina ljudi vrednuje.

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hn-mc: Zato po meni bitkoin i nema legitimitet.

Ako se pravi neka nova valuta, treba da svi mogu na početku da je kupe po istom kursu, i da svi istovremeno pređu na nju, kao što su Švabe zamjenile marku evrom, po fiksnom kursu.

Rađanje novca na slobodnom tržištu nije normalna stvar. Novac su uvijek ili plasirale države, ili je on bio prirodan, koji je već imao neku prirodnu raspodjelu, tipa začini, so, zlato, srebro.

A praviti vještački novac, i da pritom ti nisi nikakva vlast, i nuditi ga na početku nekima praktično za džabe, a da ga kasniji neki plaćaju sa 100.000 USD i više, to za moj pojam nema legitimitet da bude novac.

To mi više liči na skupljenje znački ili poštanskih markica, koje mogu igrom slučaja kod kolekcionara da dosegnu astronomsku vrijednost.

Nadam se da kontaš da nije normalno, da se neka nova valuta uspostavlja na način da se ljudi na nju prebacuju po ekstremno različitim uslovima.

Po meni da bi kripto imao neki legitimitet, mora postojati duži period na početku, tokom koga mora biti svima omogućeno da dobiju istu količinu, ili makar da plate po istoj cijeni, znači da uđu po istim uslovima.

Zato mi je recimo onaj projekat worldcoin dobar po pitanju raspodjele, jer bi tu svako dobio na početku istu količinu. Druga je stvar što mi se ne sviđa to što skeniraju oči, s tim distopijskim forama su upropastili dobru ideju po pitanju distribucije.

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@BTCSRB: O svemu što si nabrojao su Bitkoineri odavno već diskutovali. Taj tekst sam danas preveo upravo zbog tvojih navoda. Taj hipotetički scenario je takođe razrađen u tekstu (koji evidentno nisi pročitao), šta bi se desilo kada bi svi istovremeno prešli na njega po istom kursu ali da ne postoji obaveza držanja i plaćanja poreza u tom novcu kao što je to slučaj sa fiat novcem (nemačkom markom)?

"Šta će se desiti? Neki ljudi će ga visoko vrednovati, a neki neće – ljudi koji ga visoko vrednuju kupiće ga od onih koji ga ne vrednuju. I šta nam onda ostaje? Mali deo sveta koji veruje u ovaj novac i sada poseduje većinu ponude.

Čekajte, zar nije upravo to slučaj sa Bitkoinom? Zar se ljudi nisu baš zbog toga žalili?

Kada je Bitkoin u pitanju, većina nas je imala otprilike jednak pristup početnim novčićima. Svi su mogli da rudare, a novčići su u početku bili gotovo bezvredni. Rani korisnici su trgovali troškovima električne struje, svojim vremenom i trudom u zamenu za novoizrudarene bitkoine."

Dakle, opet bismo došli na isto zato što bi ponovo veći deo novčića završio u rukama manjine koja je najviše u njega verovala.

Ponovo citiram:

"Drugim rečima, ponuditi ravnomernu raspodelu od samog početka je suštinski isto kao i ponuditi podjednake šanse za sticanje bitkoina.

Ako imamo novac rođen na slobodnom tržištu, u slobodnom društvu, koji treba da zameni fiat novac – onda on ne može biti ravnomerno raspodeljen od početka, a da ga svi ljudi istovremeno vrednuju. Neminovno mora proći kroz period kada ga samo nekolicina ljudi vrednuje."

Dakle, kako god okreneš, koliko god svima podelio istu količinu na početku, neminovno će doći do koncentracije vlasništva jer je nemoguće da svi vrednuju novi novac na isti način.

Da li se tebi čini nenormalnim da novac nastane na slobodnom tržištu je potpuno subjektivno.Činjenica je da se tako nešto sa Bitkoinom desilo, a ne da li je "normalno". A ni BTC nije prvi takav slučaj u istoriji jer su se neke druge stvari koristile kao novac pre zlata pa ih je zlato na slobodnom tržištu potisnulo kao kvalitetniji novac. Sami ljudi su prvi koristili zlato kao novac, tek nakon toga su vladari urezali svoj lik na kovanice i izdavali ih, a ne obrnuto. Oni koji su batalili perle i među prvima prešli na zlato su svakako mnogo bolje prošli od onih koji su tvrdoglavo držali perle do samog kraja.

Bitkoin niko nikome nije nudio "za džabe" pošto centralni izdavalac ne postoji, već je svako morao da ga rudari i da potroši određenu količinu energije. Zašto ti i ja nismo rudarili kada smo prvi put čuli za BTC? BTC košta koliko košta zato što se, kao što si i sam rekao, nalazi u fazi monetizacije pa je prirodno su rani korisnici profitirali više od kasnijih korisnika. Takav je slučaj istorijski bio i sa zlatom, npr. Kina je mnogo izgubila što se tvrdoglavo držala srebra kada su gotovo sve države usvojile zlatni standard.

I to zlato je krenulo kao "collectible" i nije odmah postalo novac već je imalo svoj razvojni put: 1) kolekcionarski predmet, 2) skladište vrednosti, 3) sredstvo razmene, 4) obračunska jedinica. Po mom dubokom uverenju se BTC nalazi u fazi broj 2.

To sa Worldcoinom je viđeno i kod nas: koliko ljudi još uvek drži one besplatne akcije Telekoma, NIS-a, Aerodoroma itd. Tako se npr. pokojni najbogatiji Čeh Petr Kelner obogatio jer je devedesetih otkupljivao vaučere tokom tamošnje privatizacije koje je u to vreme malo ko vrednovao, kao i važnost i buduću vrednost akcija tih preduzeća.

Worldcoin se, uprkos "pravičnoj distribuciji" nalazi na -90% od svoje rekordne vrednosti uz oko 1.6 milijardi novčića u opticaju što je samo mali deo ukupne buduće količine od 10 milijardi jedinica. Šta je dakle sa preostalim novčićima, kome će oni biti podeljeni i kako? Inflacija ponude tek predstoji pošto će se količina tog novčića u opticaju i više nego ušestostručiti. Zašto Wordlcoin ili neki drugi kripto nije dostigao ni blizu vrednosti Bitkoina ako je suština u "pravičnoj i ravnomernoj raspodeli"? Čak i Ethereum se na početku rudario i nije bio ravnomerno raspoređen pa je i dalje druga najvrednija kriptovaluta.

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hn-mc: Fora je u tome što prelazak na novu valutu treba da bude javna i široko poznata stvar. 2009. niko nije znao za bitkoin osim malobrojne zajednice entuzijasta.

Takođe što se tiče ovoga "šta bi se desilo kada bi svi istovremeno prešli na njega po istom kursu ali da ne postoji obaveza držanja i plaćanja poreza u tom novcu kao što je to slučaj sa fiat novcem (nemačkom markom)?" - tvoj odgovor na to pitanje nije tačan iz prostog razlog što ako bi SVI na to prešli po istim uslovima, znači da bi on od starta imao većinsku podršku, i SVI ti koji su ušli po istim uslovima bi ga prilično jednako i vrednovali. Ne bi on tada završio u rukama neke manjine koja ga više vrednuje kao što ti pretpostavljaš.

Jer ljudi da nisu vjerovali u njega, ne bi ni prelazili na njega, prosto jednostavno.

Ja uvođenje neke alternativne valute koja bi bila ozbiljna i legitimna, zamišljam na način da se to unapred najavi, dobro izreklamira, da ljudi znaju za to, i da možda čak ima i neku instutucionalnu podršku na međunarodnom nivou, ako ne samih Ujedinjenih nacija, barem neke jake i kredibilne međunarodne organizacije, npr. Transparency International, ili nešto tog tipa. I taj period ulaska po istim uslovima bi morao trajati bar godinu dana, što bi vodilo stabilizovanju cijene.

E onda, nakon toga, kad ta godina prođe, naravno da bi došlo postepeno do fluktuacija cijene i raslojavanja, ali tad to ne bi bio problem, jer bi se moglo zaista pošteno reći da su svi ušli po približno istim uslovima, i bili obavješteni na vrijeme, i znali o čemu se radi, što kod bitkoina uopšte nije bio slučaj.

Npr. zbog odsustva regulative, nedostupnosti kripto berzi kod nas, itd... sve do 2015. kod nas je bilo to vrlo teško kupiti. Što se rudarenja tiče, na početku si morao za početak znati da to uopšte postoji. A čim se to malo proširilo više nisi mogao to raditi na običnom računaru, znači morao si raditi neka ulaganja ozbiljnija ako oćeš da rudariš.

Bitkoineri inače vole da pišu dugačke tekstove radi odbrane bitkoina, zaista se trude, i skidam im kapu na tome, ali neke stvari su prosto neodržive, i neodbranjive. Možeš prosto da kažeš, prihvatam to tako kako je, nemam s tim neki problem, moja je odluka da u to ulažem i kraj priče. I na to svak ima pravo, i ne mogu ja to nikome osporiti.

Ali imam i ja pravo da kritikujem.

I što se ovog tiče "Bitkoin niko nikome nije nudio "za džabe" pošto centralni izdavalac ne postoji, već je svako morao da ga rudari i da potroši određenu količinu energije."

U pravu su tehnički, ali praktično, neki su na osnovu sreće ili pravovremenih informacija mogli da ga dobiju mnogo ranije od nekih drugih...

Znači bitkoin nije ponudio do kraja čak ni "equality of opportunities", iako zagovornici tvrde da jeste. A sve i da jeste - to nije NI BLIZU rezultiralo onim što Englezi zovu "equality of outcomes"

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@BTCSRB: A ko bi predložio, najavio ili naredio prelazak na novu valutu? I zašto? Ljudi koji kontrolišu svetski finansijski sistem sigurno nemaju interes da pokrenu tako nešto, a i da imaju, to bi radili isključivo zarad sopstvene koristi a ne radi dobrobiti čovečanstva (npr. prelazak na CBDC).

Prelazak na novu valutu istovremeno pod istim uslovima jednostavno nije moguć bez nekog vida prisile. Kao što se kaže u tekstu - nemoguće je da ga od starta svi podjednako vrednuju bez nekog oblika prinude. Dakle ostaje jedini način da takav novac iznedri slobodno tržište, a BTC je iznedren na način na kakav je iznedren. Spontano i organski kao "grassroot movement". I kao takav je neutralan, etički novac sa najboljim karakteristikama u poređenju sa svim drugim oblicima novca koje imamo.

Ljudi koji su verovali u njega su prešli na njega; oni koji nisu, nisu ni prešli. Prosto i jednostavno. Ali takvi sada kukaju što se njihova imovina obezvređuje prema BTC, a krivi su im Bitkoineri koji su prešli pre njih?! Isti Bitkoineri koji godinama na sva usta ukazuju na BTC dok su sve to vreme ismevani, vređani, cancellovani! Ako se neko ideološki ne slaže sa nastankom BTC-a ili njegovom distribucijom, nejednakošću bogatstva, sujetom zbog toga što misli da je zakasnio - to ga neće spasiti od neminovnog gubitka kupovne moći zato što nije prihvatio bolji novac. Isto kao što su srednjevekovni vitezovi možda mrzeli barut i vatreno oružje smatrajući ih neviteškim sredstvima ratovanja ali ih to nije spasilo od uništenja od strane onih koji su prihvatili barut kao superiornu tehnologiju

Ko bi najavio novu valutu, ko bi finansirao njeno reklamiranje i marketing? Da li zaista misliš da bi se međunarodne organizacije koje se nalaze pod kontrolom vladajućeg finansijskog establišmenta založile za neku novu valutu koja bi im ugrozila moć?

Zapitaj sebe kada si saznao za Bitkoin i koliko je vremena prošlo od tada? Zašto ga nisu kupio, zašto ga i danas ne kupuješ i šta ćeš misliti o današnjem trenutku i ovoj diskusiji kada jednog dna bude vredeo 1M USD? Da li ti se čini da je rano ako posmatraš u tom kontekstu? Ili samo posmatraš u kontekstu da si zakasnio jer ga nisi kupio na 100 USD ili 1000 USD? I opet vas nešto sprečava da počnete sa nekom štednjom u njemu, samo nemoj posle da bude da vam nismo pričali i kako nije fer.

BTC je po svemu superiorniji oblik novca od zlata, a ima trž. kapitalizaciju od oko 2T USD naspram zlata sa 22T USD. To ti je jedan od znakova pored puta gde ova stvar ide i da li je rano ili kasno.

Inače domaća menjačnica ECD postoji od 2012. godine, toliko o tome da li je u Srbiji bilo teško nabaviti ga.

Inače postoji zabluda o tome da su se rani korisnici nesrazmerno obogatili. Znaš i sam da je ogroman broj prerano prodao i izgubio ključeve i pristup novčićima. Uostalom, zašto bih se poredio sa drugima? Skidam kapu svima koji su ušli i razumeli stvar pre mene, od takvih sam i učio, ti rani korisnici su pisali prve vodiče, snimali podkaste, držali predavanja i predavali baklju sledećoj generaciji Bitkoinera. Nemam ni trunke zavisti prema njima, samo poštovanje i zahvalnost.

Možda i jedina stvar koju većinu ljudi deli od Bitkoina je ponajviše sujeta i čisto poricanje realnosti. Tek onda dolazi nezainteresovanost, neradoznalost ili tehnička nepotkovanost. Ali Bitkoineri nikad neće moći da kažu da nisu dali sve od sebe, pa ko razume - razume.

“If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.”

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hn-mc: Nisam ja za btc saznao juče, pa da sad iz neke zavisti kukam kako su ga neki dobili skoro za dž, a sad ove nove generacije moraju plaćati 100k. Mada ni takvo razmišljanje ne bi bilo sasvim bez osnova, ako uzmeš npr. često ponavljanu mantru da "svako dobija bitkoin po cijeni koju je zaslužio". Ta mantra mi je, iskreno, mnogo arogantna i antipatična, jer ona potpuno ignoriše to, da mnogi nisu imali posla i para za ulaganje dok je bitkoin bio jeftiniji, ili su bili djeca, ili nisu ni rođeni. Ignoriše se mogućnost stvaranja određene gerontokratije u budućnosti, gdje bi stara generacija, koje je to prva kupila po povoljnijim cijenama imala disproporcionalnu moć u odnosu na nove generacije, koje nisu tad mogle ni fizički da ga kupe, jer ih prosto nije bilo. Ignoriše se mogućnost stvaranja te tako neke aristokratije ili oligarhije, gdje bi u budućnosti ekonomski položaj nekog djeteta zavio od toga koliko mu je ćale nekad uštekao bitkoina. To bitkoineri slave kroz još jednu mantru "generational wealth", a meni to više liči na zasnivanje prilično distopijskog sistema veliki ekonomske nejednakosti koji dosta podsjeća na feudalizam - u njemu bi imao novu klasu bitkoin "plemića".

Za bitkoin sam saznao 2013. i na samom početku sam njime bio fasciniran. Donekle sam prihvatao većinu talking pointsa i value proposition-a.

Međutim, malo-pomalo počeo sam uviđati mračnu stranu cijele stvari. (u šta spada to koliko je cijeli kripto svijet preplavljen raznim scamovima, koliko je cijela zajednica izuzetno alava na pare i materijalisitčki nastrojena - lambo, to the moon, etc... postoji to neko implicitno obećanje lakog bogaćenja i rješavanja svih finansijskih problema, postoji toksični antagonizam između bitkoinera i altkoinera (npr. zato što samo postojanje altkoina podriva narativ bitkoina o scarcity-ju - ako neko može da napravi sličan ili još bolji alternativni koin koji se takmiči na istom tržištu sa bitkoinom, onda to što je sam bitkoin "zakucan" na 21 milion gubi relevantnost), uvidio sam koliko mentalitet samog štekanja (hodl) smanjuje podsticaj za realne, produktivne investicije, što bi bilo loše za ekonomiju, koliko se plasiraju razni nerealistički narativi radi propagande. Proučio sam malo o zlatnom standardu i zašto je bio loš i kako je možda doprinio velikoj ekonomskoj krizi, a tu digitalno zlato iako bi bilo možda zgodnije za upotrebu, suštinski se ne bi razlikovalo od pravog, i imalo bi jednako loš efekat na ekonomiju... Naučio sam da je Austrijska škola diskreditovana od strane svih ozbiljnijih ekonomista. Uvidio sam koje su opasnosti od deflacije. Vidio sam koliko je nejednakost ogromna... čak i ako je do nje došlo na pošten način, to je i dalje problem - jer kako god da je do toga došlo, šta ti da radiš sa svijetom u kojem manjina ima skoro sve, a svi ostali ništa, ili mrvice. Pogotovo kad zavlada AI, pa ta većina više ne bude mogla ni da zaradi nešto svojim radom, itd... Mnogo tu ima stvari koje mi nisu baš "legle". Kasnije sam čitao i to da je većina ulagača u bitkoin na kraju završila u minusu. Uvidio sam dinamiku ciklusa gdje većina običnih ljudi bude "ošišana". Niko im nije "kriv", ali jednostavno običan čovjek niti je dovoljno finansijski jak i stabilan da se održi u tom svijetu, niti ima dovoljno ekspertize i samokontrole. Zato retail investitori ulaze kad je hajp, prodaju kad padne cijena, a whale-ovi rade pametno, tj. obrnuto od toga, ili rade DCA. Takva dinamika dovodi do sve veće i veće koncentracije bogatstva i do bogaćenja whale-ova na račun "sitnih riba". Krupna riba jede sitnu ribu. Znači cijeli taj svijet je prilično anarhičan, gdje najjači opstaju, nema zaštite potrošača, itd... Ko je već bogat, može uložiti nešto u to i da zaboravi na to, ne sikira se. A dosta sirotinje uloži MNOGO, jer se nada da će ih to izvući iz neke dubioze, a onda kad cijena krene da pada, prodaju s gubitkom, jer ne mogu sebi da priušte totalni gubitak. Draže im je da padnu za 20% nego za 50%. Ali i 20% je gubitak, i na takvim gubicima, većina naroda gubi od kripta, a dovoljno jaki, disciplinovani, i prije svega bogati, se bogate od cijele stvari. I ne vidim da će nešto moći značajno da promijeni tu dinamiku.

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@BTCSRB: Ta mantra o ceni Bitkoina i zaslugama je nastala kao odgovor na još arogantnije i antipatične ismevanja, nipodaštavanjai netačne i neutemeljene tvrdnje Bitkoin skeptika tokom godina koje su uporno ponavljali na mnogo nižim cenama i time učinili veliku finansijsku štetu ljudima koji su ih slušali (a možda bi u nekom trenutku kupili BTC) dok se BTC penjao na ove visine.

Pre nego što kritikuješ potencijalni "Bitkoin feudalni sistem", morao bi da sagledaš i kritikuješ postojeći finansijski sistem i zapitaš se da li ono čega se plašiš u BTC sistemu već postoji u fiat sistemu? Da li postoji manjina sa nesrazmernim bogatstvom? Koliko se njihovo bogatstvo uvećalo od kovida? A koliko od svetske finansijske krize 2008? Da li neko čiji je pradeda povoljno kupio zemljište na Menhetnu, Malibuu, Monte Karlu, Zlatiboru, Dedinju... Da li se tada radilo o "gerontokratiji" koja ima nesrazmernu moć u odnosu na današnje generacije? Dok ja i ti možda živimo u kutiji šibica od 40 ili 50 kvadrata? Koliki procenat ljudi danas drži koliki procenat društvenog bogatstva?

Ispada da ti braniš status quo koji mora da ostane zacementiran i koji nijedna nova generacija putem otkrićem novih tehnologija ne sme da ugrozi? Kao da je postojeći status quo bila pravična raspodela društvenog bogatstva (hint: nije, daleko od toga) i da više ne sme doći do društvene raspodele? Pritom pojava Bitkoina ne onemogućava postojeću dominantnu klasu da učestvuje u toj novoj raspodeli pošto i oni imaju jednake šanse da uzmu deo tog novog novca za sebe kao što takvu istu šansu ima neki obični pripadnik srednje klase?

Reći da postojanje Bitkoina podriva narativ o oskudnosti Bitkoina je isto što i reći da postojanje gomile automobilskih marki podriva narativ o kvalitetu Mercedesa ili Audija?! Ili da postojanje brojnih drugih metala i njihovih legura podriva narativ o retkosti zlata?! Udeo Bitkoina u celokupnom kripto tržištu je oko 65% tako da i brojke taj narativ veoma efikasno opovrgavaju zato što se izrazita većina tržišta jasno opredelila koja je kripto-imovina najkvalitetnija i najpouzdanija. Da li bi nastanak na stotine novih krš automobilskih marki podrio narativ o kvalitetu Mercedesa? Isto tako nastanak desetina hiljada šitkoina ne može podriti legitimnost Bitkoina.

Bogaćenje putem Bitkoina niti je lako niti je on cilj. Cilj je bio da se izbace treće strane iz elektronskih plaćanja i da se očuva kupovna moć novca time što bi on imao fiksnu količinu. Takođe i da taj novi monetarni sistem bude otporan na korupciju i kontrolu centralnog autoriteta. Sve ove funkcije Bitkoin radi izuzetno uspešno.

Meni kao slobodnom pojedincu NE TREBA nikakav podsticaj da trošim ili investiram, ja sam suvereni pojedinac koji zna šta je u mom najboljem interesu. A ponajmanje ću prihvatiti da me neko "podstiče" da trošim i investiram time što će mi erodirati kupovnu moć novca. Na stranu što je to besmisleno zato što je svako prinuđen da troši da bi mogao da preživi tako da i Bitkoineri itekako troše i investiraju, samo što će donositi mnogo racionalnije i proračunatije ekonomske odluke. Zašto da investiram u neku firmu koja ima projektovani rast 5% godišnje ako do BTC-a očekujem rast 10%? Jednoga dana će stope rasta BTC-a biti mnogo manje nego danas pa će vremenom biti lakše naći isplative investicije koje će mi zapravo uvećavati kapital denominiran u Bitkoinu. Tada će Bitkoineri biti više nego srećni da investiraju. Ti ako se toliki altruista i toliko brineš za ekonomiju slobodno investiraj fiat ali baci nekada pogled na vrednost svog kapitala izraženu kroz BTC i da li se ona uvećava ili smanjuje. ;).

Što se tiče zlata i ekonomskih kriza, može da se gleda i sa druge strane. FED je napravljen 1913, zar ti se ne čini možda da su oni odgovorni za Veliku depresiju 1929. i da li se period koji je tome prethodio zvao "roaring twenties" zahvaljujući zlatu ili jeftinom kapitalu koje su potpomogle novoformirane Federalne Rezerve?

Šta ima loše u deflaciji i u tome da cene vremenom padaju umesto da rastu čineći život običnom čoveku sve težim? Deflacija je loša samo po poverioce zato što će u jednom trenutku dužnici koji sada štede u čvrstoj valuti vratiti dug pa će siroti kamataši izgubiti klijenta. Onda se neće zaduživati da bi investirali ili kupovali već će to raditi iz akumulirane štednje. Svaka inflacija je pljačka, ako je rast produktivnosti 5% uz istu inflaciju, neko ti je ukrao 5% kupovne moći koju bi uvećao samim razvojem tehnologije koji je suštinski deflatoran. Deflacija je neizbežna, pa kalkulator je sada besplatan zato što su njegovi troškovi prozivodnje pali na nulu, samim tim i njegov cena.

Kako je moguće da je BTC blizu ATH, a da je većina ljudi izgubila? izgubili su samo oni koji su prodali zato što nisu znali šta poseduju. Ko se pravilno informisao i nije slušao Pitera Šifa, Krugmana ili Taleba pa je držao bilo koji period duži od 4 godine, taj je uvećao kupovnu moć. Ja nisam ni whale niti neka krupna riba niti radim za neku extra platu, samo sam dobro proučio materiju, znao šta posedujem, trošio manje od zarađenog, radio DCA, čuvao i čekao da vreme odradi svoje. Tako da mi niko ne može reći da to ne može svako ko ima bar malo finansijske pismenosti i samodiscipline kada je trošenje u pitanju.

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hn-mc: Što se tiče sadašnjeg sistema on je loš u smislu nejednakosti, ali je problem u tome što bi hiperbitkoinizacija dovela do još veće nejednakosti. Ako kritikuješ sadašnji sistem, a nudiš još gori, onda je ta kritika isprazni whataboutizam.

Štampanje para (i pored Kantilon efekta o kome bitkoineri vole da govore), ipak donekle dovodi i do razređivanja bogatstva i do neke redistribucije. Jer te nove pare ko dobija? Često dobiju ljudi koji nemaju, a treba, im npr. ljudi koji dignu kredit za stan, ili npr. penzioneri, državni službenici, itd... Povećanjem ukupne količine novca, udio starih vlasnika u ukupnom bogatstvu se smanjuje i cijeli sistem postaje više protočan, dinamičniji, ne toliko statičan.

S druge strane u bitkoin svijetu, bukvalno mentalitet je takav da se svi ustreme kao kobci na tih 21 milion, nastoje to da razgrabe, i da onda drže do daljnjeg i nikom ne daju. Bukvalno kao kad klejmuješ zemlju i kažeš "MOJE". Imaš ti bitkoinaških glava koji su u fazonu, nikad neću trošiti svoj bitkoin, ako mi trebaju pare, diću kredit, a koristiti bitkoin kao kolateralu. Ono u fazonu, buy, borrow, die.

A prije smrti, prenesi na potomstvo, da se tako nastavi bitkoin dinastija.

Ovdje griješiš:

Pritom pojava Bitkoina ne onemogućava postojeću dominantnu klasu da učestvuje u toj novoj raspodeli pošto i oni imaju jednake šanse da uzmu deo tog novog novca za sebe kao što takvu istu šansu ima neki obični pripadnik srednje klase?

Apsolutno netačno. Naravno da će postojeći milijarderi imati neuporedivo veću šansu da postanu i bitkoin vejlovi i da ih bole kurci ako btc padne i 80%, neće prodati, jer im je btc, samo 1% njihovog basnoslovnog bogatstva. Ti misliš da ta redistribucija ide u korist sirotinje, što je potpuno netačno. Kao što sam već pisao, sitne ribe uglavnom (čast izuzecima) propadaju u tom btc ekosistemu u bivaju ošišane.

Postojeći sistem se makar razrjeđuje štampanjem i dinamičniji je, a btc je statičan, zacementiran i ispunjen vrlo čudnim mentalitetom.

Šta ima loše u deflaciji?

To što djeluje destimulativno na investicije i na potrošnju. Samo to. Taj efekat možda nije toliko veliki - neće ljudi prestati da troše, daleko od toga. Ali efekat svakako postoji.

A što se tiče kupovne moći sama inflacija i deflacija su potpuno irelevantne. Bitno je da li plate prate rast ili pad cijena.

Uprkos mitu da plate ne prate rast cijena, one to itekako prate i čak rastu brže. Jer kako bi drugačije objasnio ipak evidentan rast standarda tokom godina?

Ako bi bilo istina ono što ljudi koji šire paniku o inflaciji pričaju, s vremenom bi standard bio sve gori, jer bi cijene rasle brže od plata. A to ipak nije slučaj. Uporedi kako se sad živi, i kako se živjelo prije 20 godina. A pregurali smo i SEKU i Covid, pa se opet živi bolje nego ranije.

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BTCSRB: "Povećanjem ukupne količine novca, udio starih vlasnika u ukupnom bogatstvu se smanjuje i cijeli sistem postaje više protočan, dinamičniji, ne toliko statičan."

Ovde sam prestao da čitam. Ovo nije prva činjenična neistina koju si izneo ali je najpokvarenija. Naravno da su u poslednjih 50 godina bogatiji postali još bogatiji, a siromašni još siromašniji. Naravno da je 1% na vrhu uvećalo svoje bogatstvo više od ostalih 99%.

Samo si pokazao da ne znaš puno o ekonomiji, a još manje o Bitkoinu.

Uostalom nije ni bitno, vreme će pokazati ko je u pravu kao što je pokazao i period od prethodnih 16 godina.

Poenta je da šta god vi opsesivno-kompulzivni protivnici Bitkoina uradili, prosto nemate načina da sprečite nekoga da koristi novac koji želi i za koji misli da je bolji i da razmenjuje vrednost sa ostalim korisnicima tog novca.

Vi ste zapravo štetočine jer nećete nijednog Bitkoinera prevesti nazad ali ćete ogroman broj ljudi odvratiti od prelaska na BTC dok se nalazi u fazi monetizacije, dakle samo im nanosite štetu čak iako mislite da to radite iz najbolje namere.

BTC je odavno dostigao "escape velocity" pa je vaše mišljenje po sudbinu Bitkoina potpuno irelevantno ali je itekako relevantno u negativnom smislu po ljude koji vas slušaju.

Neka svako iz ove diskusije izvuče svoje zaključke i neka bude svestan posledica (ne)prihvatanja novog superiornog oblika novca u fazi monetizacije.

hn-mc: Ja sam doskora mislio da će bitkoin zaista uspijeti i doseći te lude vrijednosti o kojima se priča - milion, pet miliona, ko zna. Mislio sam da mu je ta trajektorija zagarantovana i da to ništa neće spriječiti. To je prosto determinizam. I iskreno, prilično sam se plašio toga, jer sam smatrao da bi to bio poprilično distopijski ishod.

Konto sam, bitkoin će uspijeti, ali to neće biti dobro za svijet, za društvo i za ekonomiju. Naravno, biće i više nego dobro za one koji ga imaju.

To mi je bio stav.

A onda sam skonto da će bitkoin, vjerovatno ipak propasti, pa samim tim ti moji strahovi od distopije postaju manje relevantni.

Zašto mislim da će propasti?

Prosto zato što mu je neophodan konstantan brzi rast, da bi se održao, a konstantan brzi rast je prosto nemoguć na dugi rok.

Brzi, jak rast je neophodan da bi se održale tri stvari koje su od vitalnog značaja za bitkoin:

1. Moon narativ kao jedini pravi value proposition.
2. Isplativost majninga kao nešto što je neophodno za bezbednost mreže.
3. Jeftinoća transakcija.

Bez jakog rasta, uz stalne halvinge, majning postaje manje isplativ, mreža time manje bezbedna, transakcije postaju skuplje, jer kako drugačije majneri da zarade, istovremeno pada u vodu moon narativ koji je većini jedini pravi razlog za kupovinu.

Kad bitkoin postane "samo" store of value, ili neki standardni instrument štednje bez moon narativa, malo ko će imati motiva da ga kupi, jer su u svrhu obične, regularne štednje, bez moon narativa, zlato i državne obveznice mnogo bolji instrument, a indeksni fond uz to pruža i mnogo veći potencijal za zaradu, kao što i treba da bude (da se nagradi investiranje, a ne pasivno držanje kapitala).

Dakle, za opstanak bitkoina neophodan je jak, brz rast.

A ako uzmemo zadnjih par ciklusa, vidimo da se taj rast sve više usporava, i to se usporava još brže od nekih prognoza. Npr. za prošli ciklus prognoza je bila 100k - 200k, a on došao samo do 69k. Sad za ovaj ciklus opet se spominje 200k, a veliko je pitanje da li će doći i do 150k. Po meni je realno do 130k.

Šta to onda govori o ciklusima. Ako u odnosu na prošli ovaj nije napravio ni 2x rasta, onda za naredni možemo očekivati možda tek, 1.5x. Znači ako sad bude 130k, onda možda 2029. bude 195k...

Takav tempo rasta, toliko usporavanje, postaće uskoro nedovoljno, i bitkoin će postati neodrživ.

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hn-mc: BTW, svjestan sam da ako bitkoin uspije, mogu teoretski biti "štetočina" spram onih koji me slušaju, ali je veća šansa da će im čak i u tom slučaju moj savjet biti koristan - jer praksa je pokazala da je većina investitora dosad završila u minusu iz ovih ili onih razloga. To su prosto sirovi podaci.

To da nećeš izgubiti pare ako držiš duže od 4 godine dosad se pokazalo kao tačno, ali ni to nije zagarantovano u budućnosti.

A veliki broj ljudi iz nekog razloga proda ranije.

barrons.com/news/three-out-of-four-bitcoin-investors-have-lost-money-study-01668454507

Evo ti članak, kaže 75% ljudi koji se "bakćalo" s bitkoinom, završili u minusu.

Samo držanje bitkoina za mnoge ljude je stres jer nemaju povjerenja u to, i ako vide da nema brzog rasta, neće da drže svoj kapital u nečem tako rizičnom. Sa berze koini mogu nestati, ne bi bilo prvi put. Onlajn wallet može biti lažni, ili hakovan. Hardware wallet je dodatna investicija i za mnoge ljude too technical, itd...

Ja sam imao nekad nešto malo btc-a i dok sam imao to u btc-u ja sam smatrao da te pare NEMAM. Dok god ne vratiš to u keš koji ti je dostupan na računu, računaš da ih nemaš, jer nikad nisi 100% siguran da će svi koraci proći kako treba do samog kraja kad ti to legne na račun. Može ti hakovat, možeš se zajebat poslat na pogrešnu adresu, može te zajebat kriptomjenjačnica, svašta može bit.

Tek kad sam prodao i kad mi je leglo na račun, skonto sam da sam zaradio nešto i da je to realno.

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin 2025 Las Vegas: Here’s What Went Down 

My name is Jenna Montgomery, and maybe you’ve read some of my news articles here before, or seen me on the Bitcoin Magazine TikTok. But today, I wanted to switch it up and give you an inside look at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas through my eyes as an intern, hired just one month before the conference, having little knowledge about Bitcoin beforehand and never attending an event like this before. 

I’m writing this to give you a real, raw reflection of what I experienced over the course of the three day event, and why I believe you should absolutely attend the next Bitcoin conference. I want you all to know what goes down, what to expect, and to know how impactful I think this event really is. Bitcoin 2025 made a lasting impact on me and my life, and it just feels right to tell you why, so yours can maybe be changed too.

I got off the plane, threw my suitcase in my hotel room, and went to go and see the convention center as all of the finishing touches around the venue were being added. I remember thinking how big, beautiful, and fun the expo hall was—and where I would soon meet so many new people, make so many friends, and shake hands with people that I looked up to and admired. 

I will never forget walking in and seeing the main conference stage, The Nakamoto Stage, for the first time. Seeing that giant room with a symphony and endless rows of chairs, soon to be filled with thousands of passionate Bitcoiners, really put in perspective to me how Bitcoin 2025 wasn’t just a conference, it felt like something bigger. I realized it’s an actual community and a place of countless opportunities. 

The conference is essentially split up into 3 days: Industry Day, General Admission Day 1, and General Admission Day 2. Industry Day was mainly tailored towards professionals, investors, founders, and others focused on Bitcoin businesses. The general admission days were tailored more towards the casual Bitcoiner, and those were the days that I really felt the energy just exploding around the convention center.

INDUSTRY DAY 

Walking into the expo hall early in the morning on Industry Day, I was overwhelmed when I saw all of the vendors and companies setting up their tables, booths, stages, and even a rock climbing wall (thank you CleanSpark). It seemed as if the expo hall went for miles and miles, and featured a long orange carpet that made an intricate path through the venue that led you to each and every booth.

While fiat fails, Bitcoin prevails. pic.twitter.com/EV190PUqdT

— Valentina Gomez (@ValentinaForUSA) May 27, 2025

I remember being in total awe as I looked up at the ceiling and saw a huge UFO in the middle of the expo hall, with two Bitcoin themed Cybertrucks just off to the side of it, with lots of other interesting booths including one with a talking robot.

DAY ONE pic.twitter.com/KHXP6q8RCp

— Gemini (@Gemini) May 27, 2025

As I followed the long orange carpet around the venue, I looked over my shoulder and saw a huge blow-up of a Bitcoin Puppet in the art exhibit, featuring all kinds of other cool Bitcoin art. Some of these pieces of art were worth well over one bitcoin—which was mindblowing to me considering that is more than $100,000. Every good revolution has good art, and seeing all the talented artists pouring their hearts into their work helped me believe that Bitcoin is the future. 

Now, it was time to get to work at where I would spend the majority of my time over the next few days. My coworkers and I were stationed up right in front of the Bitcoin Magazine news desk next to the AV (audio-visual) team, where I had a perfect view of everything. Here, I spent all day every day writing news articles for Bitcoin Magazine based on the speeches, keynotes, and other panels happening on the Nakamoto stage, as well as filming TikTok’s around the expo hall with attendees.

Working in front of the news desk was one of my favorite things about the conference. Everyone who spoke on it live had an electrifying personality that kept me locked into every conversation, especially one of the hosts Pete Rizzo. After every talk on the Nakamoto Stage ended, the live stream would pan over to the news desk where they would break down what happened, providing viewers with expert analysis. This was something extremely very fun to watch live and experience the production of it all first hand.

The talks on Industry Day kicked off to such a great start with Dan Edwards from Steak ‘n Shake, who recently became the first major fast food chain in America to begin accepting Bitcoin Lightning payments. So I was very excited to hear about Edwards’ speech and to visit Steak ‘n Shake’s incredible booth, which also featured a group of fun, dancing cows. 

Steak ‘n Shake COWS HAVE NO CHILL pic.twitter.com/8UkmPhWf9T

— The Bitcoin Conference (@TheBitcoinConf) May 28, 2025

While speaking on stage, Edwards revealed that, “Bitcoin is faster than credit cards, and when customers choose to pay in Bitcoin, we’re saving 50% in processing fees.” Just think about that for a second — saving a whole 50% on each transaction? This really opened my eyes to the benefits of accepting Bitcoin as payment and why it could mean to merchants who adopt it.

Based on everything I heard in that speech, I think Steak ‘n Shake may be the first to start a new trend of other big companies accepting Bitcoin. If they recognized the benefits of Bitcoin, it’s only a matter of time before other franchises do as well.

JUST IN: Fast food giant Steak 'n Shake announced they're saving 50% in processing fees accepting Bitcoin payments

'#Bitcoin is faster than credit cards' pic.twitter.com/bxApgBL6El

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) May 27, 2025

Another big highlight from this day was hearing Senator Cynthia Lummis confirm that President Donald Trump supports her Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act. There were so many statements made during the conference that I will get to later on that point to the fact that the United States is pro-Bitcoin and we’re going to be the world leader in it. Senator Marsha Blackburn also added to this, stating, “Many of our allies follow what we do. If we lead, others will follow. This is vital to our economic future.” 

JUST IN: Senator Cynthia Lummis said US military generals are "big supporters" of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for economic power. pic.twitter.com/2RPMV3tbdA

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) May 27, 2025

At this point in

@ 9f2b5b64:e811118f

testingggg

@ b17fccdf:b7211155

---

Check out the MiniBolt guide -> HERE <-

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• Core guides
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🏗️ Roadmap | 🌐 Dynamic Network map | 🔧 Issues | 📥 Pull requests | 🗣️ Discussions

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By ⚡2FakTor⚡

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Last updated: 09/06/2025

@ eb0157af:77ab6c55

The newly elected South Korean President is aiming for a breakthrough in the cryptocurrency market with the introduction of spot ETFs and a national stablecoin.

On June 4, South Korea officially elected Lee Jae-myung as its new President. The candidate from the left-wing party secured victory following the impeachment of former leader Yoon Suk-yeol, who ended his three-year term after a failed attempt to establish a military-backed government.

Voter turnout reached 79.4%, the highest in the last 28 years. Lee won 49.42% of the vote, defeating his conservative opponent Kim Moon-soo, who garnered 41.15%.

The new President’s pledges

In addition to traditional economic priorities such as supporting low-income families and small businesses, Lee Jae-myung has placed digital assets at the heart of his political agenda.

The core pillar of Lee’s strategy involves the introduction of spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the domestic market. Currently, the issuance and local trading of crypto ETFs remain banned in the country.

Another key element of the plan is the approval of stablecoins pegged to the South Korean won. During a discussion last month, Lee emphasized the need to develop a won-based stablecoin market to prevent capital flight abroad.

Under the new administration, South Korea will also work to complete the second phase of its regulatory framework for digital assets. The upcoming legislation will specifically address stablecoin regulations and transparency requirements for cryptocurrency exchanges.

The program also includes the creation of special zones for blockchain-related businesses, where regulations will be minimized to maximize innovation and operational efficiency.

However, this isn’t the first time South Korea has elected a crypto-friendly candidate. The conservative president Yoon Suk-yeol, later impeached, had made several crypto-friendly promises aimed at deregulating the sector, though many of those initiatives saw delays and limited progress during his three-year term.

Yoon’s deregulatory plans faced resistance from the Financial Services Commission (FSC), which maintained strict regulations citing investor protection. In recent months, however, the FSC has shown greater openness toward easing crypto rules — a shift that could support Lee’s commitments.

According to FSC data, by the end of last year the country had 9.7 million registered exchange users, representing nearly 20% of the total population.

The post South Korea: the new leader may favor Bitcoin ETFs and a national stablecoin appeared first on Atlas21.

@ da8b7de1:c0164aee

Az IAEA Kormányzótanácsának ülése Bécsben

A Nemzetközi Atomenergia-ügynökség (IAEA) Kormányzótanácsa ma kezdte meg szokásos júniusi ülését Bécsben. A széles napirend olyan témákat ölel fel, mint a 2024-es éves jelentés, a technikai együttműködési tevékenységek, valamint a nukleáris biztonsággal, védettséggel és ellenőrzéssel kapcsolatos kulcskérdések. Az ülésen napirendre kerülnek többek között az iráni ellenőrzés és monitoring, az észak-koreai és szíriai ellenőrzés, az ukrajnai nukleáris biztonság – beleértve a zaporizzsjai atomerőmű helyzetét –, valamint az AUKUS-megállapodás keretében történő nukleárisanyag-átadás és annak ellenőrzése. A Kormányzótanács tárgyalja a tagállami képviseletet a 2025–2026-os időszakra, valamint a közelgő Közgyűlés előkészületeit is [iaea.org].

Nukleáris üzemeltetés és szakpolitikai fejlemények

Az elmúlt hetekben jelentős aktivitás volt tapasztalható a nukleáris üzemeltetés és szakpolitika terén világszerte. Az Egyesült Államokban a Nukleáris Szabályozási Bizottság további 20 évvel meghosszabbította a Duke Energy dél-karolinai Oconee atomerőmű három blokkjának üzemeltetési engedélyét. Michigan államban 56,8 millió dolláros hitelgaranciát hagytak jóvá a Palisades atomerőmű újraindításához.

Európában Belgium és Franciaország megállapodást kötött a Tihange 3 és Doel 4 reaktorok üzemidejének tízéves meghosszabbításáról, beleértve a radioaktív hulladék kezelésének rendezését is. Németország nukleáris technológiai szövetsége szerint akár hat leállított reaktor is technikailag újraindítható lenne, a nukleáris energiát biztonságos és klímabarát alternatívaként bemutatva.

Másutt Pakisztánban hivatalosan is átvették a kínai fejlesztésű Hualong One reaktort a Karacsi 3-as blokkban, míg Indiában hálózatra kapcsolták a Rajasthan Atomerőmű harmadik, saját fejlesztésű 700 MW-os nehézvizes reaktorát [world-nuclear-news.org].

Zaporizzsjai Atomerőmű: Folyamatos aggodalmak

Az ukrajnai Zaporizzsjai Atomerőmű továbbra is orosz katonai ellenőrzés alatt áll. Az erőmű igazgatója szerint 2027-ig minden blokk megkaphatja az orosz üzemeltetési engedélyt, azonban az ukrán Enerhoatom minden újraindítási tervet elítél, biztonsági előírásokra hivatkozva. Az IAEA főigazgatója megerősítette, hogy a szervezet kész támogatni bármilyen jövőbeni megállapodást az erőművel kapcsolatban, amely továbbra is központi téma az orosz-ukrán tűzszüneti tárgyalásokon [world-nuclear-news.org].

Új nukleáris projektek és technológiai innovációk

Világszerte fokozódik az érdeklődés az új nukleáris projektek iránt. India nukleáris hatósága jóváhagyta a négy blokkból álló Mahi Banswara Rajasthan Atomerőmű telephelyét. Kínában a fő turbinakomponenseket beépítették a Haiyang Atomerőmű 3-as blokkjában. Belgiumban megkezdődött egy ólom-hűtésű kis moduláris reaktor előzetes konzultációja, Brazília pedig egy orosz együttműködésű kis moduláris reaktor projektet vizsgál.

Az Egyesült Államokban az EnergySolutions és a WEC Energy Group új nukleáris létesítmény létesítését fontolgatja a wisconsini Kewaunee telephelyen, korai telephelyengedély megszerzését célozva. Kanadában a Prodigy Clean Energy befejezéséhez közeledik egy olyan szállítható atomerőmű tesztprogramja, amely súlyos baleseti és fenyegetettségi helyzeteknek is ellenáll [world-nuclear-news.org].

Iparági kilátások és befektetési trendek

Az iparági vezetők pozitív kilátásokról számolnak be a nukleáris energia terén: az Egyesült Államokban (pl. TerraPower Wyomingban, X-energy és Dow partnersége), valamint nemzetközi terjeszkedés (Westinghouse Lengyelországban) is aktív projektek zajlanak. A Világbank esetleges nukleáris projektek finanszírozásában való részvétele fordulópont lehet, amely szélesebb körű befektetéseket ösztönözhet. Az ágazatban optimizmus uralkodik a nukleáris energia jövőbeli szerepét illetően, amit a magánbefektetések és a szakpolitikai változások is támogatnak [ans.org].

Az amerikai nukleáris fegyverprogram mérföldköve

Az Egyesült Államok Energiaügyi Minisztériumának Nukleáris Biztonsági Nemzeti Igazgatósága (NNSA) bejelentette, hogy a tervezettnél korábban elkészült az első B61-13 típusú nukleáris gravitációs bomba. Ez a B61 bombacsalád legújabb változata, és a hidegháború óta a leggyorsabban fejlesztett és rendszerbe állított nukleáris fegyver [pantex.energy.gov].

@ afe67e17:51316efb

La Illuminati aŭ lumigita el Bavario, estis grupo kreita de la jezuitoj por batali liberalan framasonadon, ironie perdis kontrolon de la grupo, kiu aliĝis al la masonistoj. Koncerne, la masonistoj ricevis la operacian bazon, kiun la jezuitoj mem kreis

@ 97c70a44:ad98e322

When developing on nostr, normally it's enough to read the NIP related to a given feature you want to build to know what has to be done. But there are some aspects of nostr development that aren't so straightforward because they depend less on specific data formats than on how different concepts are combined.

An example of this is how for a while it was considered best practice to re-publish notes when replying to them. This practice emerged before the outbox model gained traction, and was a hacky way of attempting to ensure relays had the full context required for a given note. Over time though, pubkey hints emerged as a better way to ensure other clients could find required context.

Another one of these things is "relay-based groups", or as I prefer to call it "relays-as-groups" (RAG). Such a thing doesn't really exist - there's no spec for it (although some aspects of the concept are included in NIP 29), but at the same time there are two concrete implementations (Flotilla and Chachi) which leverage several different NIPs in order to create a cohesive system for groups on nostr.

This composability is one of the neat qualities of nostr. Not only would it be unhelpful to specify how different parts of the protocol should work together, it would be impossible because of the number of possible combinations possible just from applying a little bit of common sense to the NIPs repo. No one said it was ok to put t tags on a kind 0. But no one's stopping you! And the semantics are basically self-evident if you understand its component parts.

So, instead of writing a NIP that sets relay-based groups in stone, I'm writing this guide in order to document how I've combined different parts of the nostr protocol to create a compelling architecture for groups.

Relays

Relays already have a canonical identity, which is the relay's url. Events posted to a relay can be thought of as "posted to that group". This means that every relay is already a group. All nostr notes have already been posted to one or more groups.

One common objection to this structure is that identifying a group with a relay means that groups are dependent on the relay to continue hosting the group. In normal broadcast nostr (which forms organic permissionless groups based on user-centric social clustering), this is a very bad thing, because hosts are orthogonal to group identity. Communities are completely different. Communities actually need someone to enforce community boundaries, implement moderation, etc. Reliance on a host is a feature, not a bug (in contrast to NIP 29 groups, which tend to co-locate many groups on a single host, relays-as-groups tends to encourage one group, one host).

This doesn't mean that federation, mirrors, and migration can't be accomplished. In a sense, leaving this on the social layer is a good thing, because it adds friction to the dissolution/forking of a group. But the door is wide open to protocol additions to support those use cases for relay-based groups. One possible approach would be to follow this draft PR which specifies a "federation" event relays could publish on their own behalf.

Relay keys

This draft PR to NIP 11 specifies a self field which represents the relay's identity. Using this, relays can publish events on their own behalf. Currently, the pubkey field sort of does the same thing, but is overloaded as a contact field for the owner of the relay.

AUTH

Relays can control access using NIP 42 AUTH. There are any number of modes a relay can operate in:

1. No auth, fully public - anyone can read/write to the group.
2. Relays may enforce broad or granular access controls with AUTH.

Relays may deny EVENTs or REQs depending on user identity. Messages returned in AUTH, CLOSED, or OK messages should be human readable. It's crucial that clients show these error messages to users. Here's how Flotilla handles failed AUTH and denied event publishing:

LIMITS, PROBE, or some other reflection scheme could also be used in theory to help clients adapt their interface depending on user abilities and relay policy.

1. AUTH with implicit access controls.

In this mode, relays may exclude matching events from REQs if the user does not have permission to view them. This can be useful for multi-use relays that host hidden rooms. This mode should be used with caution, because it can result in confusion for the end user.

See Frith for a relay implementation that supports some of these auth policies.

Invite codes

If a user doesn't have access to a relay, they can request access using this draft NIP. This is true whether access has been explicitly or implicitly denied (although users will have to know that they should use an invite code to request access).

The above referenced NIP also contains a mechanism for users to request an invite code that they can share with other users.

The policy for these invite codes is entirely up to the relay. They may be single-use, multi-use, or require additional verification. Additional requirements can be communicated to the user in the OK message, for example directions to visit an external URL to register.

See Frith for a relay implementation that supports invite codes.

Content

Any kind of event can be published to a relay being treated as a group, unless rejected by the relay implementation. In particular, NIP 7D was added to support basic threads, and NIP C7 for chat messages.

Since which relay an event came from determines which group it was posted to, clients need to have a mechanism for keeping track of which relay they received an event from, and should not broadcast events to other relays (unless intending to cross-post the content).

Rooms

Rooms follow NIP 29. I wish NIP 29 wasn't called "relay based groups", which is very confusing when talking about "relays as groups". It's much better to think of them as sub-groups, or as Flotilla calls them, "rooms".

EDIT: Flotilla has migrated to exclusively use "managed rooms" — i.e., fully NIP 29 compliant rooms. Relays without NIP 29 support can still support chat, but all messages will be presented as sent to a single room. I've removed references to unmanaged rooms in what follows.

~~Rooms have two modes - managed and unmanaged. Managed~~ rooms follow all the rules laid out in NIP 29 about metadata published by the relay and user membership. In either case, rooms are represented by a random room id, and are posted to by including the id in an event's h tag. ~~This allows rooms to switch between managed and unmanaged modes without losing any content.~~

Managed room names come from kind 39000 room meta events, ~~but unmanaged rooms don't have these. Instead, room names should come from members' NIP 51 kind 10009 membership lists. Tags on these lists should look like this: ["group", "groupid", "wss://group.example.com", "Cat lovers"]. If no name can be found for the room (i.e., there aren't any members), the room should be ignored by clients.~~

Rooms present a difficulty for publishing to the relay as a whole, since content with an h tag can't be excluded from requests. ~~Currently, relay-wide posts are h-tagged with _ which works for "group" clients, but not more generally. I'm not sure how to solve this other than to ask relays to support negative filters.~~ I have ideas on how to solve this in future iterations of relay-based groups, for example using virtual relays or just a better rooms spec.

Cross-posting

The simplest way to cross-post content from one group (or room) to another, is to quote the original note in whatever event kind is appropriate. For example, a blog post might be quoted in a kind 9 to be cross-posted to chat, or in a kind 11 to be cross-posted to a thread. kind 16 reposts can be used the same way if the reader's client renders reposts.

Posting the original event to multiple relays-as-groups is trivial, since all you have to do is send the event to the relay. Posting to multiple rooms simultaneously by appending multiple h tags is however not recommended, since group relays/clients are incentivised to protect themselves from spam by rejecting events with multiple h tags (similar to how events with multiple t tags are sometimes rejected).

Privacy

Currently, it's recommended to include a NIP 70 - tag on content posted to relays-as-groups to discourage replication of relay-specific content across the network.

Another slightly stronger approach would be for group relays to strip signatures in order to make events invalid (or at least deniable). For this approach to work, users would have to be able to signal that they trust relays to be honest. We could also use ZkSNARKS to validate signatures in bulk.

In any case, group posts should not be considered "private" in the same way E2EE groups might be. Relays-as-groups should be considered a good fit for low-stakes groups with many members (since trust deteriorates quickly as more people get involved).

Membership

There is currently no canonical member list published by relays (except for NIP 29 managed rooms). Instead, users keep track of their own relay and room memberships using kind 10009 lists. Relay-level memberships are represented by an r tag containing the relay url, and room-level memberships are represented using a group tag.

Users can choose to advertise their membership in a RAG by using unencrypted tags, or they may keep their membership private by using encrypted tags. Advertised memberships are useful for helping people find groups based on their social graph:

User memberships should not be trusted, since they can be published unilaterally by anyone, regardless of actual access, so it's better to think of them as "bookmarked groups" or "favorites". Possible improvements in this area would be the ability to provide proof of access:

• Relays could publish member lists (although this would sacrifice member privacy)
• Relays could support a new command that allows querying a particular member's access status
• Relays could provide a proof to the member that they could then choose to publish or not

Moderation

There are two parts to moderation: reporting and taking action based on these reports.

Reporting is already covered by NIP 56. Clients should be careful about encouraging users to post reports for illegal content under their own identity, since that can itself be illegal. Relays also should not serve reports to users, since that can be used to find rather than address objectionable content.

Reports are only one mechanism for flagging objectionable content. Relay operators and administrators can use whatever heuristics they like to identify and address objectionable content. This might be via automated policies that auto-ban based on reports from high-reputation people, a client that implements NIP 86 relay management API, or by some other admin interface.

There's currently no way for moderators of a given relay to be advertised, or for a moderator's client to know that the user is a moderator (so that they can enable UI elements for in-app moderation). This could be addressed via NIP 11, LIMITS, or some other mechanism in the future.

General best practices

In general, it's very important when developing a client to assume that the relay has no special support for any of the above features, instead treating all of this stuff as progressive enhancement.

For example, if a user enters an invite code, go ahead and send it to the relay using a kind 28934 event. If it's rejected, you know that it didn't work. But if it's accepted, you don't know that it worked - you only know that the relay allowed the user to publish that event. This is helpful, becaues it may imply that the user does indeed have access to the relay. But additional probing may be needed, and reliance on error messages down the road when something else fails unexpectedly is indispensable.

This paradigm may drive some engineers nuts, because it's basically equivalent to coding your clients to reverse-engineer relay support for every feature you want to use. But this is true of nostr as a whole - anyone can put whatever weird stuff in an event and sign it. Clients have to be extremely compliant with Postell's law - doing their absolute best to accept whatever weird data or behavior shows up and handle failure in any situation. Sure, it's annoying, but it's the cost of permissionless development. What it gets us is a completely open-ended protocol, in which anything can be built, and in which every solution is tested by the market.

@ a3c6f928:d45494fb

At the heart of freedom lies the power to choose. Not just once or twice—but again and again, in big ways and small. Every moment offers a choice: to show up, to say yes, to say no, to begin, to walk away, to change direction. We often forget that choosing is a sacred act—not just of decision, but of self-definition.

The Illusion of Powerlessness

Many of us live by default—carrying out routines, expectations, or roles that no longer fit. We tell ourselves we have no choice because it feels safer to stay where we are. But every time we say, “I have no choice,” we hand our freedom away.

Why Choice Matters

It reclaims your agency

It reinforces self-trust

It opens the door to change

It reminds you that you are the author of your life

Even when life limits your options, your response is still your power.

Signs You’re Ready to Reclaim Your Power

You feel stuck in autopilot

You often say yes when you mean no

You’re living by someone else’s rules

You’re waiting for permission to act

Choosing with Intention

1. Pause Before Reacting: Choice lives in the space between stimulus and response.

2. Ask What You Really Want: Not what’s expected—what you desire.

3. Take Small Ownership Steps: A 1% shift is still freedom in motion.

4. Expect Discomfort: Freedom isn’t ease—it’s honesty.

5. Reaffirm: “I Get to Choose.” This isn’t selfish—it’s sacred.

Why It Matters

Freedom isn’t the absence of responsibility—it’s the embrace of it. When you choose, you take back the pen. You become the author of your path—not a character in someone else’s story.

---

“Every choice is a vote for the person you’re becoming.”

Choose boldly. Choose consciously. That’s where real freedom begins.

@ 8b0a2bea:857d369f

Hey guys,

This is the Geyser Team, and finally we have our own territory on SN!

At Geyser we're passionate about driving grassroots Bitcoin Adoption. We created https://geyser.fund/ to empower Bitcoin creators to come together and make great Bitcoin ideas happen.

For some time now, we've feeling the need to see our community come together and come to life a bit more. And we couldn't think of a better place than SN!

We look forward to sharing on here so much of what is happening on Geyser: - New Projects - Exciting Project updates - Progress on grassroots Bitcoin adoption - New Product features and udpates - Getting questions from our community - AMAs with new creators

What are some things you'd like to see on this channel? We look forward to your feedback!

--Geyser Team

https://stacker.news/items/1001708

@ e2287c73:33911b46

Мы сражаемся за глобализм и Новый Мировой Порядок. За то, чтобы по красной площади гуляли голые мужики на каблуках, за 300 гендеров, за право наших детей сменить пол в 12 лет. За разврат и бездуховность. За Содом и Гоморру. За общество потребления. За индивидуализм и рыночек. За аборты и эвтаназию. За легализацию наркотиков, оружия и проституции. За то, чтобы в документах писалось "Родитель 1, Родитель 2" вместо "папа и мама". За секс-просвет с детского сада и gender studies. За гендерную-нейтральность. За развал России и образование на её месте либерально-сатанинско-атеистического государства под управлением прозападных глобалистов (желательно евреев). За западный неоколониализм. За то, чтобы бляди танцевали в церквях каждый день, ибо те будут переделаны в гей- и стрип-клубы, казино, публичные дома, на худой конец в ТЦшки. За то, чтобы кремль был переделан в диснейленд, а одним из аттракционов там было расстреливание икон из пневматической винтовки. Когда-то лапотные slave'янские дикари призвали варягов, чтобы те привили им цивилизацию и западные ценности. Так же и теперь мы должны призвать коллективный Запад чтобы он насадил сиволапой русне однополые браки, ГМО, феминизм, либерализм и прочие достижения высшей западной культуры, ценности истинных арийцев. Варяги - суть скандинавы, значит нужно принимать западные ценности и скандинавскую/арийскую толерастию, вот! (кроме некоторых леваческих заскоков/запретов).

Наше дело правое и мы победим, ибо будущее всегда побеждает прошлое, а прогресс - реакцию! Клянусь Айфоном, Рыночком, Макдаком и радужным знаменем! Мученики и бойцы могут быть уверены: гордые анархо-либеральные западники будут до последней капли крови сражаться против коммунизма, консерватизма, рашизма и всех видов реакционного мракобесия. Наша борьба будет продолжаться, пока власть от национальных государств не перейдёт к транснациональным корпорациям, и не будет построен Новый Мировой Порядок. Мы никогда не отступим! Мы победим! Да хранит Госдеп Великий Запад, неолиберализм, общество потребления, LGBTQIA+ , да возвеличит их. Тель хай! Все, кто встанет у нас на пути - пожалеют. И всех врагов свободы мы намотаем на гусеницы танков если будет нужно. Как говорила Валерия Ильинична: "Я лично правами человека накушалась досыта. Некогда и мы, и ЦРУ, и США использовали эту идею как таран для уничтожения коммунистического режима и развала СССР. Эта идея отслужила свое." Очевидно, что в такой мракобесной стране как Рваньсия, есть от силы 3% нормальных людей и 97% говна. Права - для 3% избранных, может для креативного класса, но точно не для мировоззренчески ущербных ватников, совково-пролетарской драни и черносотенной националистически-булкохрустной нечисти. Так что пусть сидят на жопе ровно и смотрят балет!

Философской основой для нашей политической позиции служит диалектический имморализм — человеконенавистническая ультралиберальная идеология право-прогрессивного толка. Это культ тотального неподчинения, философия радикальной свободы, аморального индивидуализма и техноглобального нигилизма против всех форм традиции, морали и запрета. (книга в закрепе)

Бездуховные треки, как авторские так и прочие - в разделе аудио. /GlobalistRussophobe - самый большой агрегатор бездуховности в интернете Авторские мемы в этом профиле, находятся по слову "ориджинал".

Голосуй за СОДОМ! Содом - в каждый дом! Смерть России! Ave Satan! Drang nach Osten!

@ 000002de:c05780a7

The FAA is using Windows 95 with Floppy Drives in 2025. Why is this state run operation such a mess?

Honestly, its kinda amazing we don't have more tragic events in the air than we do.

Wrong answers only.

https://stacker.news/items/1001702

@ 866e0139:6a9334e5

Autor: Bernd Schoepe. Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben. Sie finden alle Texte der Friedenstaube und weitere Texte zum Thema Frieden hier. Die neuesten Pareto-Artikel finden Sie in unserem Telegram-Kanal.

Die Anmerkungen zum Text (Fußnoten) folgen aus technischen Gründen gesondert.

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Die neuesten Artikel der Friedenstaube gibt es jetzt auch im eigenen Friedenstaube-Telegram-Kanal.

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Teil 1 des Essays lesen Sie hier.

Hochkonjunktur der Zeitenwenden

Wir befinden uns gerade in einer Hochkonjunktur der Zeitenwenden.

Es ist zu befürchten, dass man mit den Zeitenwenden bald gar nicht mehr hinterher kommt!

Der ungewöhnliche Plural lässt vermuten, dass wir mit einer Situation konfrontiert sind, in der politisch paradoxe Phänomene und Entwicklungen sich kumulieren. Entwicklungen und Phänomene, die schwer zu verstehen und noch schwerer zu händeln sind. Global übt das Paradoxale einen erhöhten Problem- und Entscheidungsdruck auf die Politik aus und steigert die Gefahr, daraus emergierende Spannungen gewaltsam lösen zu wollen.  

Stellen wir einen Vergleich an. So hat die Zeitenwende, die Anfang des Jahres in Washington mit der Wiederwahl Donald Trumps eingeläutet wurde, schon viel mehr positive Ergebnisse –  im Sinne eines echten Politikwechsels –  erreicht als die nach Beginn des Ukraine-Kriegs 2022 von Scholz zackig im feldmarschallähnlichen Stil ohne Einbezug des Bundestages proklamierte Zeitenwende. Im Februar wurde die Scholzsche Zeitenwende-Politik abgewählt, wird von Merz aber fortgeführt, während Trump für seine Zeitenwende gegen die den Krieg weiter befürwortenden Demokraten als klarer Sieger aus der Wahl hervorging. Zuletzt gelang es der US-amerikanischen Diplomatie, Friedensverhandlungen in Istanbul zwischen der Ukraine und Russland in Gang zu setzen, auch im Nahen Osten gerät vieles in Bewegung. 

Die Folgen der Paradoxien werden von Ulrike Guérot gut zum Ausdruck gebracht:

„Wie gefährlich ist es in einem Land, in dem de facto jetzt Willkür herrscht, in dem Sinne, als das alles, was gestern noch galt, nicht mehr gilt – oder alles, was gestern unmöglich war, auf einmal möglich ist? Wie, außer mit Autorität, Gewalt oder Ideologie, will man vernünftige Bürger dafür gewinnen, den Kurs der Regierung mitzutragen, die auf ‚Kriegstüchtigkdit’ hinarbeitet, während der Frieden schon verhandelt wird?“   (18)

Als dritte Zeitenwende kann jene gelten, die gleichzeitig von den BRICS-Staaten ausgeht. Dieser Prozess hat durch das Einfrieren der Beziehungen des Westens mit Russland und der Verschlechterung der Beziehungen zu China in den letzten drei Jahren an Fahrt aufgenommen. Seither zeichnen sich die Umrisse einer neuen multipolaren Ordnung ab, in der Russland, China und jetzt wohl auch die USA mitspielen wollen, auf die die Europäer aber mental kaum vorbereitet scheinen.

In den USA hat sich der Wind gedreht, doch Deutschland verharrt in den alten Mustern, die in Washington nun abgewrackt werden. Unsere Politiker und Medien verhalten sich dabei wie die drei Affen: Sie wollen nichts sehen, nichts hören, nichts sagen über das, was sich dort tatsächlich ereignet. So findet z.B. eine Neuaufstellung der Wirtschafts- und Außenpolitik statt, in der neue Bündnisse geschmiedet werden, bei denen Europa außen vor bleibt. Über Entwicklungen, die auch äußerst folgenreich für Deutschland und die EU sein könnten, berichtet der Öffentlich-Rechtliche-Rundfunk gar nicht. Das gilt z.B. für die Politik von Gesundheitsminister Robert F. Kennedy jr. und dem neuen Direktor des National Institutes of Health (NIH) Jay Bhattacharya (vormals Stanford University), die sich nicht nur für eine umfassende Aufarbeitung der Corona-Zeit einsetzen, sondern darüber hinaus die Pharma-Industrie im Interesse – auch ein Paradox, an das wir uns aber schon längst gewöhnt haben – eines besseren Gesundheitsschutzes regulieren wollen.

In seiner ideologischen Verbohrtheit und doppelmoralischen Überheblichkeit bemerkt der deutsche Mainstream nicht, wie weit sein Realitätsverlust schon gediehen ist. Das hat zur Folge, dass die Politik hierzulande immer autoaggressivere Züge trägt. 

Die eigene aufgeblasene, kriegerische Rhetorik, die als Ersatzhandlung die große Rat- und Erfolglosigkeit des Kurses, der vom Establishment eingeschlagen wurde und an dem eisern festgehalten werden soll, nur schlecht überspielen kann, erinnert mehr und mehr an das selbstverstümmelnde Verhalten manisch Depressiver, die aus ihrer Isolation nicht mehr rausfinden.

Dabei nimmt das Verhängnis des Abstiegs Deutschlands nicht nur energiepolitisch und ökonomisch seinen Lauf. Es wird durch ein Klima der Cancel Culture und Zensur noch weiter verschärft. Dabei besteht der Mehrwert abweichenden Denkens darin, dass nur durch offene Kritik eine Gesellschaft in der Lage bleibt, kreativ auf ihre Probleme zu reagieren. Wer dies unterbindet, würgt die Potenziale zur positiven Veränderung und damit die gesellschaftliche Dynamik und jeden Fortschritt ab. Im Übrigen wäre in einer funktionierenden Demokratie kein Mut für das Äußern abweichender Meinungen nötig.

Die späte Rache der Geschichte

Mit der doppelten Zeitenwende-Rhetorik erleben wir gerade so etwas wie die (zu) späte Rache, die die Geschichte am realpolitischen Hintertreiben, der Sabotage und Obstruktion des ethischen Nie-Wieder-Krieg-Postulats nimmt. Von Anfang an verfolgte diese Obstruktionspolitik das Ziel, den Friedensimpetus, der die Debatten und Handlungen der Mütter und Väter des Grundgesetzes mehrheitlich glaubhaft leitete und prägte, zu neutralisieren und, zumindest teilweise, in sein Gegenteil umzukehren. Fortwährend, von 1945 an, sind diese und ähnliche Bestrebungen durch die imperialistischen Interessen und Pläne sämtlicher US-amerikanischer Administrationen und der dahinter eigenlogisch handelnden, geheimdienstlichen deep state- Strukturen durchkreuzt worden. 

In der Bundesrepublik geschah der Wiederaufbau der staatlichen Strukturen maßgeblich mit Personal, das zuvor in der NSDAP und ihren Unterorganisationen das Funktionieren des Nazi-Terror-Regimes sicherstellte. Damit wurde die Chance auf einen antifaschistischen Neuanfang**** vertan. Dass das Konzept eines solchen Neuanfangs, seine  nur von einer Minderheit erkannte sittliche und politische Notwendigkeit, zugunsten eines Wiederaufbaus, dem als pragmatische und realistische Lösung der Vorzug gegeben wurde (der gleiche Prozess wiederholte sich 1989 bei der deutschen Wiedervereinigung), sehr schnell verdrängt wurde, ist mitursächlich für die rasende Regression, von der unser Gemeinwesen inzwischen voll erfasst wurde (19). Zur Erklärung des Rückfalls in ein Denken, das Krieg erneut als ein Mittel der Politik etablieren will, dem militärischen Wettrüsten wieder das Wort redet und der Diplomatie, wider alle Vernunft, eine Absage erteilt, muss unbedingt an die frühe Lossagung von jedem ernsthaften, die Aufarbeitung der Vergangenheit betreffenden Denken und Handeln, erinnert werden.  

Erschreckende Kontinuitäten

Erschreckenderweise ist das bellizistische Denken, das nach den Brandspuren der verheerenden Kriege des 20. Jahrhunderts in ganz Europa überwunden geglaubt war, ist mit Beginn der russischen Beteiligung am ukrainischen Bruderkrieg wiederauferstanden. Es wird begleitet von einem starken, antifreiheitlichen Affekt, der sich auf dem ganzen Kontinent in der Politik breitgemacht hat. Denn Staaten, die zum Krieg rüsten, drängen die Freiheit auf ganzer Linie zurück, da sich Kriegsvorbereitungen und Militarismus niemals gut mit gesellschaftlicher Liberalität vertragen.

Die antirussischen Kampagnen, die Dämonisierung Putins und Russlands, steht unübersehbar in einer Kontinuität zur nationalsozialistischen Weltanschauung und müssen als ihre zombieähnlichen Wiedergänger betrachtet werden. In Deutschland gedenken die Täter damit, ihre Taten nachträglich moralisch rein zu waschen. Die nekrophilen Handlungen werden erhobenen Hauptes, forsch und mit stolz geschwellter Brust angekündigt, ausgeführt und verteidigt: Sie sind ja die Guten. 

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DIE FRIEDENSTAUBE FLIEGT AUCH IN IHR POSTFACH!

Hier können Sie die Friedenstaube abonnieren und bekommen die Artikel zugesandt, vorerst für alle kostenfrei, wir starten gänzlich ohne Paywall. (Die Bezahlabos fangen erst zu laufen an, wenn ein Monetarisierungskonzept für die Inhalte steht). Sie wollen der Genossenschaft beitreten oder uns unterstützen? Mehr Infos hier oder am Ende des Textes.

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Blicken wir auf das heutige Ausmaß antirussischer Ressentiments und vergleichen wir sie mit dem antislawistischen Rassismus der NS-Ideologie (in dem Angehörige slawischer Völker als „Untermenschen“ galten – 27 Millionen dieser „Untermenschen“ wurden von Deutschen im Zweiten Weltkrieg vernichtet) muss man zu dem gleichen Schluss wie Brecht kommen, den er in seinem Arturo Ui zieht:

„Der Schoß ist fruchtbar noch, aus dem das kroch.“

Erinnern wir uns:

Bis zu einem Viertel der Bundestagsabgeordneten in den Legislaturperioden 1949 bis 1965 und mindestens 26 Angehörige in den Bundeskabinetten bis Helmut Kohl, gehörten der NSDAP an. Ganz zu schweigen von der nationalsozialistischen Kontinuität in den BRD-Geheimdiensten. (20) 

„Beim BND waren Massenmörder, da gibt es nichts zu beschönigen.“  (21) 

Gerade jetzt, nachdem der Verfassungsschutz in einem geheim gehaltenen, aber an bestimmte Presseorgane vorab lancierten Gutachten (22), die AfD als „gesichert rechtsextrem“ eingestuft hat, ist daran zu erinnern, dass der Verfassungsschutz durch sein V-Leute-System – zum einen durch das vor dem Bundesverfassungsgericht gescheiterte NPD-Verbotsverfahren dokumentiert, zum anderen durch das schuldhafte, noch immer nicht richtig aufgeklärte Agieren des Verfassungsschutzes im NSU-Komplex belegt – als eine Behörde angesehen werden muss, die selber tief in rechtsextreme und rechtsterroristische Strukturen verstrickt ist. 

Betrachtet man genauer die Unterlassungen, Vermeidungsstrategien und Ausweichmanöver bezüglich einer NS-Aufarbeitung, die diesen Namen verdient hätte und beginnt man dafür Quellen heranzuziehen, die uns durch das Internet frei zugänglich für die eigene Urteilsbildung zur Verfügung stehen, wird relativ schnell klar, dass der Rechtsextremismus in der Tat ein gravierendes bundesrepublikanisches Problem war und ist, dass dieses Problem aber nicht erst und gewiss nicht vorrangig durch den Aufstieg der AfD virulent geworden ist. 

Der Rechtsextremismus hat sich vielmehr bereits seit 1949 als die schwerste Hypothek für eine Demokratisierung der Bundesrepublik erwiesen, und damit meine ich nicht die NPD oder die Neo-Nazis auf der Straße. Mit Macht hat diese Hypothek verhindert, dass überhaupt je nach dem Krieg ein ernsthafter Versuch unternommen wurde, den Souverän – das Volk – vollgültig in seine Rechte einzusetzen. So scheiterte die Republik-Werdung. Die Republik, die per Grundgesetz und Staatsverständnis ihrer Gründer  beabsichtigte und angestrebte Form, wurde zwar institutionell-formal hergestellt. Sie wurde aber material nie zum Leben erweckt. 

Die republikanische Verfassung hat zum Gegenstand und sieht vor, das Gemeinwesen (als die Gesamtheit der Bürger) auf eine sowohl organische (der Bürger bestimmt deliberativ die Politik und ihre Verfahren) als auch radikale Art und Weise selbst zu ermächtigen seine Angelegenheiten und Geschicke zu regeln, zu bestimmen und zu leiten. Diesbezüglich haben alle Angehörigen der Bürgerschaft genau die gleichen Rechte, kein Einzelner und keine Gruppe kann in diesem Prozess mehr Rechte als andere oder gar Privilegien für sich beanspruchen: 

Die Republik steht und fällt mit der Verwirklichung des Grundsatzes der allgemeinen Gleichheit und Freiheit. Die Nachkriegsgeschichte der Bundesrepublik ist hingegen von konservativem Elitedenken und einer Serie von Ungleichheiten, Privilegien und unterschiedlich geregelten rechtlichen Zugangsmöglichkeiten zur Gestaltung und Verwaltung des Gemeinwesens und der Teilhabe am politischen Prozess insgesamt gekennzeichnet. 

Statt dem organischen und radikalen Weg der Demokratisierung zu folgen, bog die Bundesrepublik – und das ist ganz wörtlich zu verstehen – frühzeitig rechts ab. Als Folge dieses Abbiegens müssen wir uns heute mit einer extremisierten Mitte auseinandersetzen, die als „Transatlantische Einheitspartei Deutschland“ (Michael Andrick), das Kartell der Inhaber „unserer Demokratie“ von CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, Grüne und Linke, in Erscheinung tritt. Kritiker, wie z.B. Oskar Lafontaine, haben wiederholt auf die äußerst fragwürdigen, Demokratie und Grundgesetz außer Kraft setzenden Erscheinungsformen und Gefahren, die von dieser extremisierten Mitte ausgehen, aufmerksam gemacht (23). Ein Satz, in dem diese extremistischen Tendenzen besonders komprimiert und markant zum Ausdruck gebracht wurden, stammt von Olaf Scholz. Er hat ihn in seiner ersten Regierungserklärung als Bundeskanzler zur Corona-Politik gesagt:

„Für meine Regierung gibt es keine roten Linien mehr.“

Doch verschieben wir den Fokus nun vom Feld der Innenpolitik auf die Außenpolitik und schauen uns die abstruse und bedrohliche Lage an, in der die Welt durch die Politik des Westens und die paradoxalen Spannungen innerhalb seines Bündnisses zuletzt geraten ist.

Perplexe Folgen einer Machtasymmetrie

In diesen Wochen und Monaten tritt uns das seit dem Ende des Zweiten Weltkrieges konstant asymmetrisch gebliebene Machtverhältnis zwischen den USA und Europa mehr und mehr als Farce entgegen –  nichtsdestotrotz eine brandgefährliche Farce! 

Die deutschen und der Großteil der europäischen Eliten lehnen sich im 80. Jahr des Kriegsendes gegen den „großen Bruder“ in dem Moment auf, wo dieser außenpolitisch ausnahmsweise einmal vernünftig handelt. Man mag es nicht glauben, aber die Europäische Union, die nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg als Friedensprojekt konzipiert wurde und auf eine einzigartige Erfolgsgeschichte zurückblicken kann, ein Friedensprojekt, das über Jahrzehnte weltweit hohes Ansehen genoss und ausgezeichnet wurde (Friedensnobelpreis 2012 in „Anerkennung für über sechzig Jahre Friede, Versöhnung und Demokratie“) (24), diese Europäische Union entzweit sich mit den USA ausgerechnet deshalb, weil die Trump-Administration den nicht gewinnbaren Krieg in der Ukraine gegen Russland endlich beenden und für das malträtierte und in jeder Hinsicht darniederliegende Land Frieden schaffen will. 

Unter dem Strich ist – auch wenn man sich vielleicht scheut, es so aufzufassen – der Eindruck entstanden, dass unter den „Verbündeten“ hier eine äußerst seltsame, um nicht zu sagen absurde Travestie zum Tragen kommt: Solange der „große Bruder“ USA die Konflikte schürt und mittels Regime-Change-Aktivitäten und militärisch- geheimdienstlicher Interventionen seine eigenen Interessen –   euphemistisch offiziell als Schutz der „regelgeleiteten Ordnung“ (in wessen Namen eigentlich?) bezeichnet – durch den Einsatz einer Menge Geld und mehr oder minder brachialer Gewalt weltweit (in wessen Namen eigentlich?) durchsetzt, stehen wir vasallentreu an seiner Seite. Oder können die eigenen aggressiven Impulse über den großen Bruder dadurch ohne Risiko ausgelebt werden? Bot nicht die Art der Zusammenarbeit im „westlichen Wertebündnis“ den Deutschen die Gelegenheit, die Scham über die eigenen Verbrechen zu vergessen, sich vom dauerhaft schlechten Gewissen endlich zu befreien?

Ausgerechnet dadurch will man sich nun vom US-amerikanischen Hegemon emanzipieren, dass zunehmend verzweifelte Versuche in der sogenannten „Koalition der Willigen“ unternommen werden, um die längst überfälligen, im März 2022 u.a. durch das Eingreifen des damaligen britischen Premierministers Boris Johnson gegenüber der Selensky-Regierung bereits einmal gescheiterten Friedensverhandlungen doch noch durch unrealistische Forderungen, erneute Drohungen und Ultimaten an Russland zu verhindern? Dabei hat Europa, der Ukraine darin durchaus ähnlich, zur Durchsetzung der eigenen Positionen in dem Konflikt „keine Karten mehr in der Hand“, um Donald Trumps Formulierung aus dem öffentlich übertragenen Clinch mit Selensky im Weißen Haus aufzugreifen. Die Sanktionen haben Russland nicht in die Knie gezwungen, sondern das Land nur stärker, z.B. vom europäischen Technologietransfer unabhängig gemacht.  

Man hat offensichtlich auch kein Problem damit, weiter Tausende von toten und verletzten sowie lebenslang traumatisierten Soldaten und Zivilisten allmonatlich dafür in Kauf zu nehmen. Vor diesem Hintergrund mutet das Spiel um den von Brüssel, Berlin und Kiew geforderten 30-tägigen Waffenstillstand zynisch an, denn niemand in Moskau glaubt dem Westen noch ein Wort, wenn er zugleich die Zeit dafür nutzen will, neue Waffen an Selensky zu liefern. Die ganze europäische Politiker-Riege ist vielmehr maßgeblich mitverantwortlich dafür, dass sich die Verhandlungspositionen der Ukraine seit Beginn des Krieges immer weiter verschlechtert haben.

Eine EU, die sich immer stärker von den geopolitischen Realitäten abkoppelt und ideologisch einbunkert, mag ihre Nibelungentreue zum korrupten Selensky-Regime damit glaubwürdig unter Beweis stellen. Sie kann aber damit nicht verantwortlich im Sinne der Bevölkerung in der Ukraine handeln und natürlich ebenso wenig dadurch ihrer Verantwortung für die Bürgerinnen und Bürgern der EU gerecht werden.  

Sollten wir uns also tatsächlich in der Frage nach Krieg und Frieden noch tiefer in diese (besonders für die Ukraine) aussichtslose Situation verstricken und uns sowohl gegen Moskau als auch gegen Washington stellen? 

Dann muss man kein Prophet sein, um vorherzusagen, dass die Konfrontation der EU mit ihrer faktischen Machtlosigkeit diese so unbarmherzig hart treffen wird, dass ein solches Eingeständnis auf eine völlige Zerstörung ihrer ohnehin schon brüchig gewordenen Fundamente hinauslaufen würde. Die Trump-Regierung zeigt jedenfalls wenig Interesse mit der EU verhandeln zu wollen. Viel besser passen ihr einzelne Staaten ins Konzept, die man gegebenenfalls getreu der Maxime „divide et impera“ gegeneinander ausspielen kann. Zugleich führt die wachsende Unzufriedenheit immer größerer Teile der Bevölkerung mit den EU-Eliten dazu, dass eurokritische Bewegungen und Parteien immer öfter gewählt und in vielen Ländern die EU-kritischen, in der Regel rechten Parteien kurz vor der Regierungsübernahme stehen. Ein Prozess, den die neue US-Regierung unterstützt. 

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Bernd Schoepe, Jahrgang 1965,  Studium der Soziologie, Germanistik, Philosophie und Erziehungswissenschaften in Frankfurt/M. und Hamburg. Erstes und zweites Staatsexamen. Freier Autor, der zu bildungspolitischen, bildungssoziologischen- und bildungsphilosophischen Themen schreibt. Seit 2003 im Hamburger Schuldienst. Langjähriges GEW-Betriebsgruppen-Mitglied, ehem. Vertrauensmann, ehem. Mitglied der Hamburger Lehrerkammer. Hauptberuflich bin ich Politik- Deutsch- und Philosophielehrer an einer Hamburger Stadtteilschule. Kontakt: berndschoepe\@gmx.de

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@ a296b972:e5a7a2e8

Wie weit ist es noch her mit Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit?

Wie weit sind diese wunderbaren Begriffe schon von Spaltung, Willkür und Bevormundung verdrängt worden?

Ein Land, dessen Werte aus dem Ruder gelaufen sind. Regiert von Teflonauten. Teflonauten? Das sind die, die sich vor Eintritt in die Politik in einem Fass Teflon-Lack haben taufen lassen, damit alle Vernunft an ihnen abperlt.

Für Deutschland gehen die Superlative aus, die den Gesamtzustand eines Staates beschreiben könnten, der in jeder Hinsicht aus den Fugen geraten ist. Wie in einem vorangegangenen Kommentar zu einem anderen Thema zu lesen war, die Satiriker werden langsam arbeitslos, weil die Realität alles überbietet.

Eine unsägliche Riege von Politikern demontiert eine Demokratie, die bis 2019 wenigstens noch einigermaßen erträglich funktioniert hat. Man hatte noch das Gefühl, man wird weitgehend in Ruhe gelassen.

Mit dem Corona-Ereignis wurde die Büchse der Pandora geöffnet. Seitdem fließen totalitäre Elemente in die Demokratie ein. Wer darauf hinweist, läuft Gefahr, es mit der vom Souverän gekaperten Macht zu tun zu bekommen.

Für die, die gegen die Bevölkerungsverdummung immun sind, wird es zunehmend unerträglicher, doch – da müssen wir durch.

Es ist gut, dass all die Machenschaften, die die Deutschen sonst nicht mitbekommen haben, allendhalben hier und da mal ein Skandälchen, ans Tageslicht kommen.

Es ist gut, dass es so offensichtlich ist, dass die dicksten Klopse, die sich die sogenannten Politiker erlauben, nicht den geringsten Anlass dazu geben, zurückzutreten. Vorbei die Zeiten, in den schon viel kleinere Vergehen, einen Politiker dazu genötigt haben. Es ist gut, weil so klar wird, dass das politische Gewissen nur noch im Museum besichtigt werden kann. Irgendwann versteht das auch noch der Letzte im hintersten Winkel des besten Deutschlands aller Zeiten.

Die Inkompetenz ist überall sichtbar, durch die, die unfähig sind, ihre Machenschaften zu verbergen.

Läppisch geschnitzte Pfeifen geben sich als wohlgestimmte Orgel aus und meinen, es gäbe niemanden, der die Kakophonie hören würde. Ein schräges Blockflöten-Konzert wird zum Musikgenuss hochstilisiert, von Leuten, die ständig ihren Notenschlüssel verlegen und dadurch nicht mehr in den Raum der Vernunft kommen.

Die Menschen in Deutschland haben sich aufgeteilt in die, die von all dem nichts wissen wollen und sich einreden, es sei doch alles in Ordnung. Für die, die sich brav ihre tägliche Gehirnwäsche in den inzwischen für die Qualität ihrer Propaganda bekannten Medien abholen, das sind noch rund 60%, gibt es keine Einschränkung der Meinungsfreiheit. Rund 40%, die der Meinung sind, dass man in Deutschland seine Meinung nicht mehr frei äußern kann, sind noch viel zu wenig! Für immer noch zu viele ist J. D. Vance ein Verschwörungstheoretiker, der die Sicherheitskonferenz in München dazu missbraucht hat, seine kruden Ansichten zu verbreiten.

Und dann gibt es die, die mitbekommen, was in Deutschland los ist. Die werden oft erschlagen von den Verstrickungen, Irrungen und Wirrungen, die sich immer mehr zeigen und immer dreister als Selbstverständlichkeit, als das Normalste von der Welt postuliert werden. Für die ist der gesundheitliche Zustand der deutschen Demokratie immer mehr ein Dauerpatient auf der Intensivstation.

Realitätsfremde Energiepolitik, Nordstream kaputt, gut so, kein Interesse an einer Wiederinbetriebnahme;

rückläufige Wirtschaft, zunehmende Firmenpleiten, Abwanderung von Unternehmen;

eklatante Steuergeldverbrennung, Northvolt in die Grütze gefahren, Maskendeals, zur Belohnung das nächste Pöstchen;

einseitige, weglassende Hofberichterstattung mit dem Hang zu Amnäsie;

fragwürdige Gerichtsurteile; Schauprozesse gegen Ballweg, Füllmich und viele andere, Masken, Atteste, Strafzahlungen, Majestätsbeleidigung etc. etc. etc..

Gewalt und Tod durch Messerfachkräfte, es sind ja die Messer, nicht die Menschen, die sie in der Hand haben, transparenter Aufklärungsrückstau;

intellektuelle Beleidigungen durch Schönrederei, man glaubt, die anderen sind noch dümmer als man selbst;

existenzbedrohende Kontenkündigungen, wir machen dich fertig;

politischer Dummschwätz, Wiederholungen, Wiederholungen, Wiederholungen;

Einzug totalitärer Strukturen, wer die Augen aufmacht, sieht sie;

infantile Repräsentanz Deutschlands im Ausland, Abwesenheit von Diplomatie;

Aufstachelung der Bürger, damit sie ja schön kriegsgeil werden, siehe auch Dummschwätz;

Angstpornos für Kinder und Erwachsene, bei ständigem Einlass in Kino 7, Raum Klima, mit Air Condition;

lächerliche Preisverleihungen, armutsfördernde Preiserhöhungen;

zunehmendes Misstrauen gegenüber der eigenen Bevölkerung, der Feind im eigenen Land;

Bevormundung, betreutes Denken, Fühlen, Wollen;

bedrohlich zunehmende Überwachungsanstrengungen, digitale Identität, die als Sicherheit verkauft wird, jedoch nichts anderes ist, als der Versuch der Einrichtung eines Überwachungs-Kontroll-Systems;

nichts, aber auch rein gar nichts hat Konsequenzen, die dazu führen, dass die Verantwortlichen zum Sandkornzählen in die Wüste geschickt werden, damit sie den Rest ihres Lebens beschäftigt sind und kein Unheil mehr anrichten können.

Unaufhaltsam rast der Personal-Zug Deutschland, überfüllt mit Fahrgästen, die meinen, Trump ist verrückt und Putin ist die Personifizierung des Bösen, gezogen von einer mit heißer Luft betriebenen Lok, die von Heizern befeuert wird, die den Kessel unentwegt  mit Angst und Wahnsinn schüren, auf den Berg aus Granit zu, der unweigerlich eine Katastrophe für die Demokratie von ungeahntem Ausmaß verursachen wird. Ständig wird die Strecke künstlich verlängert, indem neue Schienen und Schleifen hinzugefügt werden, statt den Zug rechtzeitig noch zum Halten zu bringen. Die Geschwindigkeit ist inzwischen schon so hoch, dass selbst der Geist, der zu Pfingsten ja ausgeschüttet wird, niemanden mehr erreicht.

Deutschland ist in der Hand von ideologisch vergifteten Versagern zweiter und letzter Wahl und einer verschworenen Gemeinschaft von Universal-Dilettanten, die den Untergang der freiheitlich-demokratischen Grundordnung fest im Zangengriff haben und keinerlei Anstalten machen, diesen wieder lösen zu wollen.

Das Land der Denker und Dichter geht vor die Hunde. Freiheitlich, wirtschaftlich, gesellschaftlich, politisch, rechtlich. Um die Manege sitzen immer noch viel zu viele sogenannte Bürger, die Beifall klatschen, oder sich zumindest einreden, es sei doch weitgehend alles in Ordnung. Bravo! Es ist so unglaublich unterhaltend, sich nach Strich und Faden an der Nase herumführen zu lassen.

Und die, die die Kraft haben, auf diesen Wahnsinn hinzuschauen, die wissen gar nicht, was sie zuerst tun sollen: Heulen, schreien, verzweifelt sein, unentwegt mit dem Kopf schütteln, dagegen anschreiben, wachrütteln, flüchten oder dableiben, sich in Sicherheit bringen?

Die Demokratie und Rechtsstaatlichkeit sind von „Demokraten“ gekidnappt worden, die behaupten, sie würden sie verteidigen. Dabei geht es ausschließlich nur um deren Machterhalt und die Besitzstandswahrung ihrer erbärmlichen Pöstchen, mit einer weiteren Diätenerhöhung von rund 600 Euro im Juli 2025. Deutschland ist zu einem drittklassigen Selbstbedienungsladen verkommen, und es wird unentwegt in die Kasse gegriffen, solange noch was zu holen ist. Und damit das auch noch eine Zeit lang so weitergehen kann, wird Luftgeld produziert und als Sondervermögen deklariert, und damit eine Hypothek geschaffen, die zukünftige Generationen niemals werden ausgleichen können.

Wie gelegen käme da ein Krieg, in dem all dieser menschengemachte Unsinn wertlos wird. Und ein Neuanfang danach wird dann als überragende politische Leistung verkauft, die zum Wohle des Volkes geschaffen wurde, damit ein neues Wirtschaftswunder möglich werden kann. Los, ran, wieder all das aufbauen, das Deppen zuvor in die Tonne gekloppt haben. Uns geht’s ja schon wieder so gut, wir wollen uns wirklich nicht beklagen. Wir haben ja von all dem nichts gewusst. Wir waren ja nur die Opfer einer fehlgeleiteten Politik. Was hätten wir denn tun können? So oder so ähnlich wird dann das eigene Gewissen wieder durch fadenscheinigen Selbstbetrug beruhigt.

Das ganze System stinkt zum Himmel. Unerträglicher Gestank nach Zersetzung und Verwesung, der uns als neuester Schrei der Parfum-Hersteller verkauft wird.

Man kann gar nicht so schnell schreiben, wie man sich aufregen möchte.

Das ist kein Ventil zum Ausdruck der unglaublichen Empörung. Das wäre zu einfach und bedeutungslos. Nein, mit jedem Wort und jedem Artikel und jedem neuen Abonnenten von Pareto verbindet sich die Hoffnung, wieder jemanden zum Nachdenken anregen zu können. Damit die Zahl derjenigen, die die Demokratie verstanden haben, von Tag zu Tag größer wird. Damit sich von unten herauf eine geistige Kraft immer mehr entfaltet, die dieses impertinente Lügenkonstrukt zum Einstürzen bringt. Ein Leuchtfeuer muss ständig brennen, wenn Gefahr in Verzug ist. Wenn man so will, ist das Revolution, aber eine geistige und vor allem friedliche. Wenn immer mehr Menschen mutig verstehen, was in Deutschland abgeht, dann nagt das unermüdlich an den künstlich geschaffenen, unmenschlichen undemokratischen Strukturen, die den Stümpern die Macht rauben werden, damit dieses ganze Lügengebäude endlich implodieren kann.

Je lauter Delegitimierung geschrien wird, desto deutlicher tritt hervor, wer für die Delegitimierung der freiheitlich-demokratischen Grundordnung und die Aushöhlung des Grundgesetzes verantwortlich ist.

Deutschland kann nur wirklich in Richtung Souveränität gehen, wenn wir so weit gekommen sind, dass sich das deutsche Volk in freier Entscheidung eine Verfassung (gerne auf Grundlage des Grundgesetzes, das nach wie vor provisorischen Charakter hat) gegeben hat, in der Bürgerbeteiligung und Volksentscheide, gerne nach schweizerischem Vorbild, nicht nur zur Pflicht eines jeden Bürgers, sondern ganz selbstverständlich als notwendiger, alltäglicher Beitrag zur Demokratie fest in den Köpfen der Menschen verankert ist.

Gruß an das Amt für, aus Sicht des Bürgers, Fassungslosigkeit. Wenn ein leidenschaftliches Eintreten für Freiheit und Demokratie, durch berechtigte Kritik an den derzeitigen Verhältnissen, als rechts angesehen wird, dann ist der Autor gerne rechts. Eben ein rechter Demokrat, wie es sich gehört!

Vielleicht leidet der Autor auch an Demokratie-Tourette: Ihr Pfeifen, ihr Pfeifen, ihr Pfeifen! Was habt ihr nur aus unserem Land gemacht. Unserem, hört ihr, nicht eurem!

Der Autor hat fertig (jedenfalls für heute!), Deutschland leider auch.

“Dieser Beitrag wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben.”

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(Bild von pixabay)

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

‘MicroStrategy of Asia’ Metaplanet Aims To Acquire Over 210,000 BTC By the End of 2027

Metaplanet Inc. widely recognized as Japan’s leading Bitcoin treasury company, has announced a major update to its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, unveiling the “555 Million Plan” aimed at acquiring over 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027, which is equivalent to 1% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

*Metaplanet Announces Accelerated 2025-2027 Bitcoin Plan: Targeting 210,000 $BTC by 2027*

Full Presentation: https://t.co/JG28maMdfd pic.twitter.com/i9kzmjlDT8

— Metaplanet Inc. (@Metaplanet_JP) June 6, 2025

This new target marks a dramatic increase from the company’s earlier “21 Million Plan,” which aimed for just 21,000 BTC by 2026. Progress far outpaced expectations, with 8,888 BTC already secured as of June 2, prompting the strategic shift.

To fund this growth, Metaplanet has launched Asia’s largest Bitcoin-focused equity raise, aiming to secure ¥770.9 billion (approximately $5.4 billion) through the issuance of 555 million shares via moving strike warrants. This is the first structure of its kind in Japan, priced at a premium to market, made possible by the company’s high share liquidity and volatility.

At the Annual General Meeting on March 24, shareholders approved an increase in authorized shares from 161 million to 1.61 billion, following a 10-for-1 stock split effective April 1, 2025; Metaplanet has approximately 296 million authorized shares remaining. The 555 million shares being issued under the new plan will bring the company’s fully diluted shares outstanding to around 759 million.

Metaplanet’s Bitcoin yield targets and performance for 2025 have shown strong momentum, with quarterly BTC yields of 41.7% in Q3 2024, 309.8% in Q4 2024, 95.6% in Q1 2025, 66.3% in Q2 2025, and projected 35% yields for both Q3 and Q4 2025. The year-to-date BTC yield for 2025 stands at 225.4%, closing to the full year target of 232%. 

Metaplanet also announced the issuance of the 20th to 22nd Series of Stock Acquisition Rights via a third-party allotment to EVO FUND, potentially adding 555 million new shares. The initial exercise price is set at JPY 1,388 and will adjust regularly based on stock prices, with some series including a premium to protect shareholders. The exercise period runs from June 24, 2025, to June 23, 2027, with expected proceeds of approximately JPY 767.4 billion. This financing supports the “555 Million Plan” and further Bitcoin accumulation.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich wrote in a post on X, “thanks to all of our shareholders,” he said. “We are honored to be on this journey with you. Metaplanet is accelerating into the future — powered by Bitcoin.”

Metaplanet has launched Asia’s largest-ever equity raise dedicated to Bitcoin:
¥770.9 billion (~$5.4B) capital raise
555 million shares via moving strike warrants
First in Japan: issued at a premium to market — enabled by Metaplanet’s high volatility and deep liquidity… pic.twitter.com/UlXHneyDzo

— Simon Gerovich (@gerovich) June 6, 2025

This post ‘MicroStrategy of Asia’ Metaplanet Aims To Acquire Over 210,000 BTC By the End of 2027 first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Oscar Zarraga Perez.

@ 6a6be47b:3e74e3e1

Hi frens! 🌍

Did you get a chance to rest this weekend? I hope so! While my cat naps away in his window hammock (and I’m a bit jealous of his endless snoozing), I found myself reflecting on a book I almost forgot I read years ago: Ender’s Game by Orson Scott Card.

I knew Ender’s Game was part of a larger series, but since Card originally wrote Ender as just a “novelette,” I was never sure if I wanted to continue with the sequels after finishing the first book.

⭐️If you’re into movies or stories about epic space wars, Earth under threat from alien species, and unlikely heroes who seem a bit too good to be true —Ender’s Game is all that, but better.

What brought this book back to mind was humming along to “Home” by Tides of Man (from their album Dreamhouse):

“You were faster than me You were better than me I was too careful and weak It had to be you” 🎶

Supposedly, the album was inspired by Ender’s Game. If you’ve read the book and listen to the album, can you spot which tracks match up with the story? 👀

Ender, our (somewhat debatable) hero, is just a kid —but he’s sharp, resourceful, and surprisingly astute.

You’ll follow him through Battle School, navigating his complicated relationship (to put it nicely) with his older brother, and his much more empathetic bond with his sister. You’ll root for him, struggle with him, and want him to win.

🛸But by the end, you’re left wondering (just like him): what exactly is he winning? Was it worth it? When I finished the book, I couldn’t bring myself to continue the series. Maybe it was because the first book felt so brilliant on its own that I didn’t want to risk spoiling the experience, or maybe I wasn’t sure if knowing more about Ender as he grows up would change how I felt about him as a kid.

Either way, I’m still undecided about reading the rest of the saga. Maybe I will, maybe I won’t. But I can say this: Ender’s Game is a must-read.

See you soon, frens.

Godspeed! 🚀

https://stacker.news/items/1001683

@ f0fd6902:a2fbaaab

https://stacker.news/items/1001523

@ 8bad92c3:ca714aa5

Key Takeaways

In this episode, Bitcoin Core veteran James O’Beirne delivers a sharp critique of Bitcoin’s developmental stagnation, attributing it to political dysfunction, post-fork trauma, and resistance within Bitcoin Core to critical upgrades like CheckTemplateVerify (CTV). He argues that while institutional adoption accelerates, internal innovation is being stifled by misplaced controversies—such as the OP_RETURN policy debate—and a bottlenecked governance model. O’Beirne warns that without urgent progress on scaling solutions like CTV, congestion control, and vaulting systems, Bitcoin risks ossifying and becoming vulnerable to institutional capture. Advocating a more adversarial posture, he suggests forking or building alternative clients to pressure progress but remains hopeful, seeing rising momentum for protocol upgrades from developers outside the Core elite.

Best Quotes

“Everybody has mempool derangement syndrome… it’s such a small issue in the grand scheme of challenges Bitcoin is facing.”

“Bitcoin is as much an experiment in technical human organization as it is a pure technology.”

“If we don’t figure out how to scale trustless Bitcoin self-custody, we’re toast. Right now, only about 2.5% of Americans could actually use Bitcoin monthly in a meaningful way.”

“CTV isn’t sexy—it just works. It keeps getting reinvented because it's so useful. At this point, it’s essential.”

“If Core isn’t going to evaluate these proposals, someone has to. Otherwise, we need to build the social justification for forking.”

“Lightning didn’t scale Bitcoin the way we expected. Let’s stop assuming a silver bullet is coming and start building the bridges ourselves.”

“You could onboard someone with just a phone and a vault… and give them more security than most hardware wallets.”

Conclusion

While Bitcoin gains traction with institutions and governments, its internal development is stalling under political inertia and misplaced focus. James O’Beirne urges the community to prioritize impactful upgrades like CTV and CCV, challenge the bottleneck of Bitcoin Core if needed, and recommit to Bitcoin’s foundational principles. This episode underscores the urgent need to bridge technical and social divides to ensure Bitcoin remains a decentralized, censorship-resistant tool for global value transfer.

Timestamps

0:00 - Intro
0:41 - Multi axis issue
5:12 - Core governance
9:41 - Derailing productive discussions
17:05 - Fold & Bitkey
18:32 - CTV
29:24 - Unchained
29:53 - Magnitude of change
41:45 - Covenant proposals
50:16 - CTV benefits
57:56 - Institutional ownership
1:05:26 - Moving forward

Transcript

(00:00) I think I have a somewhat different take than 99% of the people in the discussion. What freaks me out is if you've got Sailor owning half million coins or whatever and Black Rockck owning however many, people forget that Bitcoin is as much an experiment in technical human organization as it is, you know, as a sort of pure technology.
(00:17) The undernowledged reality is I'm actually interested to see if we have like a black swan adoption event from the machines. the risk given the increased scrutiny that things like the strategic Bitcoin reserve introduce there's a shot clock on getting to trustless decentralized value storage technology and I think we really have to be thinking about that combination of physically tired and mentally tired it's also tiresome James it's it's I was looking at that picture today and I was actually going to tweet it absent any caption just because it's
(00:52) a really good Uh yeah, it's a really good epitome of uh of a lot of stuff. But I'm with you, man. I'm tired. It's Friday. Who is it? Is that a just some random Japanese guy? I think it's it's I actually think it's from a documentary about I don't know if it's Africa, but Oh, yes. Yes.
(01:13) It's there's a little bit of a kind of like racy connotation there. Um yeah, the uh it's been long. It was interesting for me. We had Texas Energy Mining Summit here in Austin the beginning of the week. It sort of blended with Bitcoin plus I was over at Bitcoin++ Wednesday and yesterday doing the live desk and obviously topic of conversation is OP return this policy decision and this policy change that that core wants to make and many people are uh angry about and it's just again it's also tiresome.
(01:52) spoke with people on both sides over the two days and I I think I came away more confused than than I entered entered the week like what is the optimal path and somebody who's worked on Bitcoin core worked on Bitcoin core for for many years I've seen you tweeting about it seems like I won't put words in your mouth I'll let you say like what is your perspective on this whole policy debate around op return yeah so in general I think I have a somewhat different take than um 99% of the people in in the discussion which is basically that this
(02:25) is a really stupid discussion um everybody has mempool derangement syndrome like at every layer um and uh what what frustrates me a little bit about the conversation not not to not to uh get like um grumpy right off the bat but it's just it's it's such a small issue in the in the grand scheme of challenges that are being presented to Bitcoin that like spending all this drama on it um is is really a silly use of time and uh kind of emotion, but I can break it down for you.
(03:02) I mean, I think I think like largely the argument is happening on a few layers. Um the change itself technically I'm totally in favor of it. It makes sense. you know, basically the rationale is like, well, you know, um, people want to include exogenous data into the chain. Um, you can't really stop them from doing that.
(03:23) Um and so let's basically minimize the damage by saying hey you know we're going to make it easier for people to actually make use of op return as a data carrier which uh lets us avoid bloat in the UTXO set which is like one of the precious resources we have to take care of for the node.
(03:44) Um, so that's all good and the and the other thing too is that as we've seen with the ordinal stuff is um, you know, data is going to wait make its way into the chain and actually it hurts the whole network when um, there are transactions that most nodes haven't seen yet but they come through a block. Basically that slows down block propagation time.
(04:06) And so the whole idea is if you bring policy closer to the actual consensus rules, closer to the actual transactions that are going to come through and be mined, then you're going to have better network performance. You're going to have lower latency when it comes to actually broadcasting a new block around. So that's like the the sort of technical layer of the discussion.
(04:25) It's it's really a minute non-controversial change if you kind of have fluency with the the technical end of the mempool. Um, but I think there's this this higher layer to the conversation which is sort of a readjudication of spam in Bitcoin. And it's, you know, I think a lot of the the old animal spirits and sentiments are emerging about like, well, we don't like spam.
(04:49) And I think for a lot of people who kind of get lost in the technical details, it's very easy to latch on to the sentiment of I don't like spam. Um and so uh so that makes the sort of ocean knots camp maybe more appealing. Uh so that's yeah that's I guess a summary if you want to jump in anything in particular we can that's what I was saying I came out more confused than I went in.
(05:20) So last week on RHR, hey, I agree. You want policy to be aligned with consensus. Like whether we like it or not, these transactions are getting into blocks. They're non-standard, but they are valid within consensus rules and policy just isn't aligning with that. And like you said, this is disrupting the P2P layer and potentially the fee uh estimation process that that many nodes use, many applications use.
(05:49) And it makes sense to me to align policy with consensus. These things are happening. And if you can make it so Bitcoin full nodes are operating as efficiently and optimally as possible by changing this, it makes sense to me. I think my one like push back was like makes sense to me. However, I think how it was communicated to people and the whole mess with the PR.
(06:12) I think it's I think it's it was it's it's just a tactical error. Like even if this change gets in the the the real benefit of is is not material. You know, nobody was really clamoring for it. um this stuff always, you know, gets the hackles up of everybody who cares at all about, you know, spamming Bitcoin. So, it was a real tactical error.
(06:36) And I think that's that's one place where I mean it's kind of I had a little bit of shot in Freud seeing it because I'm fairly critical of core as a project along you know a variety of axes at this point and it was just kind of a demonstration of the the disconnection and kind of ineptitude of um publicity management kind of on on their end.
(06:58) Um, and so like there's part of me that enjoys seeing that because I I'm kind of convinced that that group has a lot less efficacy than they have credibility. And so to to see that kind of catch up was was interesting. The uh let's dive into that like what you said multiple axes you have a problem. I think we've throughout the years like we've been discussing the issues that Bitcoin like yourself particularly as a Bitcoin core developer for many years trying to get things through not only in the context of the way core works from a governance
(07:35) structure but just the way Bitcoin works as a distributed open source protocol like trying to get changes in and I will say like

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Bitcoin Magazine

TakeOver Successfully Hosts Second Annual BitGala Celebrating Bitcoin in Las Vegas

LAS VEGAS, NV, May 26, 2025 – TakeOver, Magic Eden, Spark, and Stacks successfully hosted their second annual BitGala on May 26th at the Wynn in Las Vegas. The celebration brought together over 200 Bitcoin industry leaders and community members for an evening dedicated to celebrating Bitcoin. 

The BitGala was designed as a curated gathering focused on inspiring continued development, education, and adoption while reflecting on the strides Bitcoin has made toward a future of open, decentralized money. The event successfully brought together key leaders, creating meaningful opportunities for collaboration and strategic partnerships within the Bitcoin space. 

“BitGala celebrates our partnership with Spark, marketing a major leap forward for Bitcoin DeFi,” said Elizabeth Olson, Head of Marketing for Bitcoin at Magic Eden. “As the #1 Bitcoin app, Magic Eden has spent the past few years pushing Bitcoin L1 to its limits, always with the goal of making Bitcoin more usable, fast, and fun without compromising its core ethos. We believe Spark has the potential to unlock a new era of building on Bitcoin, and we’re thrilled to be leading that charge together.” 

“The BitGala was a stunning celebration of Bitcoin culture where luxury meets the cypherpunk spirit. We’re proving that Bitcoin isn’t just a protocol, it’s a movement connecting freedom-minded people from art, fashion, finance, and more. To us, it was a pure signal that people are starting to see what Stacks has been building all along: a future where Bitcoin isn’t just held, but used for apps, defi, and real ownership.” – Rena Shah, COO of Stacks. 

Set against the backdrop of the Sphere, the evening brought together innovators, investors, and community leaders for a night dedicated to celebrating Bitcoin’s growth and the people driving its future. 

The program opened with a welcome reception, followed by gourmet hors d’oeuvres and vibrant conversations. A keynote and honors segment recognized those making meaningful strides in Bitcoin adoption and development. Guests were then invited to explore a premium tequila tasting experience curated by Reach, and indulge in interactive gourmet chef stations. 

“Our team has been fortunate to be part of the Bitcoin community since 2016, so we’re thrilled to see all the progress on display almost 10 years later at Bitcoin 2025. The energy in the room at BitGala was electric—from conversations sparking new partnerships to shared reflections on what’s next for Bitcoin—it was a powerful reminder of why we’re all here: to build an open, decentralized financial system that empowers everyone.” noted Kelley Weaver, Founder and CEO, Melrose PR and Founder, Bitwire. 

This unforgettable gathering—hosted in partnership with leading organizations including Magic Eden, Spark, and Stacks—was more than a celebration. It was a call to continue pushing forward innovation, education, and adoption in

the Bitcoin ecosystem. BitGala was made possible through the generous support of key sponsors and partners who share Takeover’s commitment to fostering connections in the web3 space. 

“We’re focused on making Bitcoin more useful for everyone, and events like this remind us that we’re not alone in that mission. It was inspiring to connect with others who share the vision of a more open, decentralized financial future powered by Bitcoin.” – Spark Team 

Presenting Sponsors: 

• Magic Eden – The largest NFT marketplace and Runes platform. 
• Spark – The fastest, cheapest, most UX-friendly way to build financial apps and launch assets on Bitcoin.
• Stacks – A Bitcoin L2 enabling smart contracts & apps with Bitcoin as secure base layer. 

Supporting Partners: 

• Reach Ventures – a gaming-focused VC firm that actively invests in both early-stage and demo-ready game studios.
• Arch Network – a Bitcoin-native platform for building decentralized apps and smart contracts directly on Bitcoin. 
• Melrose PR – An onchain communications firm that has been focused on the crypto industry exclusively for almost a decade. 
• Bitwire – The modern newswire reimagined for today’s communications professionals. 

The collaborative support from these organizations was instrumental in delivering a memorable event for all attendees. 

Actor and comedian T.J. Miller was also a speaker at the event: “The bitcoin conference 2025 was incredible for so many reasons. It was such a joyful journey to be with so many like-minded people (all of whom have been laughed at) who share the same values: freedom, community, hope, and getting rich- the highpoint was the BitGala. I bought incredibly large expensive shoes for the specific purpose of showing up to the gala non-verbally saying bitcoin destroying Fiat, well that’s big shoes to fill… and we’ll fill ‘em. I can’t wait to return next year. I will wear more orange.” 

About TakeOver 

TakeOver is the experiential agency at the forefront of culture and innovation in the crypto space, known for curating powerful moments that educate, connect, and inspire. With a global Bitcoin Dinner Series and their annual flagship event, BitGala, they’ve become a cornerstone of community-building in Web3. Last year, they made headlines with a dramatic takeover of Nashville’s Parthenon—setting the bar for what crypto gatherings can be. 

About Magic Eden 

Magic Eden is the easiest platform to trade all digital assets onchain. As the #1 Bitcoin app and largest NFT marketplace, we provide a seamless trading experience to everyone. Magic Eden’s acquisition of Slingshot has expanded their capabilities to offer frictionless trading of over 5,000,000 tokens across all major chains. Magic Eden’s expanded product suite includes a cross-chain wallet, powerful trading tools, and the ability to mint, collect, and seamlessly trade NFTs and tokens.

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Disclaimer: This is a sponsored press release. Readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence before acting on any information presented in this article.

This post TakeOver Successfully Hosts Second Annual BitGala Celebrating Bitcoin in Las Vegas first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by TakeOver.

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Bitcoin Magazine

Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV ratio, remains one of the most reliable on-chain indicators for identifying local and macro tops and bottoms across every BTC cycle. By isolating data across different investor cohorts and adapting historical benchmarks to modern market conditions, we can generate more accurate insights into where Bitcoin may be headed next.

The Bitcoin MVRV Ratio

The MVRV Ratio compares Bitcoin’s market price to its realized price, essentially the average cost basis for all coins in the network. As of writing, BTC trades around $105,000 while the realized price floats near $47,000, putting the raw MVRV at 2.26. The Z-Score version of MVRV standardizes this ratio based on historical volatility, enabling clearer comparisons across different market cycles.

Figure 1: Historically, the MVRV Ratio and the MVRV Z-Score have accurately identified cycle peaks and bottoms. View Live Chart

Short-Term Holders

Short-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for 155 days or less, currently have a realized price near $97,000. This metric often acts as dynamic support in bull markets and resistance in bear markets. Notably, when the Short Term Holder MVRV hits 1.33, local tops have historically occurred, as seen several times in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. So far in the current cycle, this threshold has already been touched four times, each followed by modest retracements.

Figure 2: Short Term Holder MVRV reaching 1.33 in more recent cycles has aligned with local tops. View Live Chart

Long-Term Holders

Long-term holders, who’ve held BTC for more than 155 days, currently have an average cost basis of just $33,500, putting their MVRV at 3.11. Historically, Long Term Holder MVRV values have reached as high as 12 during major peaks. That said, we’re observing a trend of diminishing multiples each cycle.

Figure 3: Achieving a Long Term Holder MVRV value of 8 could extrapolate to a BTC price in excess of $300,000. View Live Chart

A key resistance band now sits between 7.5 and 8.5, a zone that has defined bull tops and pre-bear retracements in every cycle since 2011. If the current growth of the realized price ($40/day) continues for another 140–150 days, matching previous cycle lengths, we could see it reach somewhere in the region of $40,000. A peak MVRV of 8 would imply a price near $320,000.

A Smarter Market Compass

Unlike static all-time metrics, the 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score adapts to evolving market dynamics. By recalculating average extremes over a rolling window, it smooths out Bitcoin’s natural volatility decay as it matures. Historically, this version has signaled overbought conditions when reaching levels above 3, and prime accumulation zones when dipping below -1. Currently sitting under 1, this metric suggests that substantial upside remains.

Figure 4: The current 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score suggests more positive price action ahead. View Live Chart

Timing & Targets

A view of the BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows chart illustrates that BTC is now approximately 925 days removed from its last major cycle low. Historical comparisons to previous bull markets suggest we may be around 140 to 150 days away from a potential top, with both the 2017 and 2021 peaks occurring around 1,060 to 1,070 days after their respective lows. While not deterministic, this alignment reinforces the broader picture of where we are in the cycle. If realized price trends and MVRV thresholds continue on current trajectories, late Q3 to early Q4 2025 may bring final euphoric moves.

Figure 5: Will the current cycle continue to exhibit growth patterns similar to those of the previous two cycles? View Live Chart

Conclusion

The MVRV ratio and its derivatives remain essential tools for analyzing Bitcoin market behavior, providing clear markers for both accumulation and distribution. Whether observing short-term holders hovering near local top thresholds, long-term holders nearing historically significant resistance zones, or adaptive metrics like the 2-Year Rolling MVRV Z-Score signaling plenty of runway left, these data points should be used in confluence.

No single metric should be relied upon to predict tops or bottoms in isolation, but taken together, they offer a powerful lens through which to interpret the macro trend. As the market matures and volatility declines, adaptive metrics will become even more crucial in staying ahead of the curve.

For more deep-dive research, technical indicators, real-time market alerts, and access to a growing community of analysts, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Mapping Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Potential first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

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