@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

via me

Don't sleep on what's happening in Japan right now. We've been covering the country and the fact that they've lost control of their yield curve since late last year. After many years of making it a top priority from a monetary policy perspective, last year the Bank of Japan decided to give up on yield curve control in an attempt to reel inflation. This has sent yields for the 30-year and 40-year Japanese government bonds to levels not seen since the early 2000s in the case of the 30-year and levels never before seen for the 40-year, which was launched in 2007. With a debt to GDP ratio that has surpassed 250% and a population that is aging out with an insufficient amount of births to replace the aging workforce, it's hard to see how Japan can get out of this conundrum without some sort of economic collapse.

This puts the United States in a tough position considering the fact that Japan is one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds with more than 1,135 sats | $1.20 trillion in exposure. If things get too out of control in Japan and the yield curve continues to drift higher and inflation continues to creep higher Japan can find itself in a situation where it's a forced seller of US Treasuries as they attempt to strengthen the yen. Another aspect to consider is the fact that investors may see the higher yields on Japanese government bonds and decide to purchase them instead of US Treasuries. This is something to keep an eye on in the weeks to come. Particularly if higher rates drive a higher cost of capital, which leads to even more inflation. As producers are forced to increase their prices to ensure that they can manage their debt repayments.

It's never a good sign when the Japanese Prime Minister is coming out to proclaim that his country's financial situation is worse than Greece's, which has been a laughing stock of Europe for the better part of three decades. Japan is a very proud nation, and the fact that its Prime Minister made a statement like this should not be underappreciated.

As we noted last week, the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds are drifting higher as well. Earlier today, the 30-year bond yield surpassed 5%, which has been a psychological level that many have been pointed to as a critical tipping point. When you take a step back and look around the world it seems pretty clear that bond markets are sending a very strong signal. And that signal is that something is not well in the back end of the financial system.

This is even made clear when you look at the private sector, particularly at consumer debt. In late March, we warned of the growing trend of buy now, pay later schemes drifting down market as major credit card companies released charge-off data which showed charge-off rates reaching levels not seen since the 2008 great financial crisis. At the time, we could only surmise that Klarna was experiencing similar charge-off rates on the bigger-ticket items they financed and started doing deals with companies like DoorDash to finance burrito deliveries in an attempt to move down market to finance smaller ticket items with a higher potential of getting paid back. It seems like that inclination was correct as Klarna released data earlier today showing more losses on their book as consumers find it extremely hard to pay back their debts.

via NewsWire

This news hit the markets on the same day as the average rate of the 30-year mortgage in the United States rose to 7.04%. I'm not sure if you've checked lately, but real estate prices are still relatively elevated outside of a few big cities who expanded supply significantly during the COVID era as people flooded out of blue states towards red states. It's hard to imagine that many people can afford a house based off of sticker price alone, but with a 7% 30-year mortgage rate it's becoming clear that the ability of the Common Man to buy a house is simply becoming impossible.

via Lance Lambert

The mortgage rate data is not the only thing you need to look at to understand that it's becoming impossible for the Common Man of working age to buy a house. New data has recently been released that highlights That the median home buyer in 2007 was born in 1968, and the median home buyer in 2024 was born in 1968. Truly wild when you think of it. As our friend Darth Powell cheekily highlights below, we find ourselves in a situation where boomers are simply trading houses and the younger generations are becoming indentured slaves. Forever destined to rent because of the complete inability to afford to buy a house.

via Darth Powell

via Yahoo Finance

Meanwhile, Bitcoin re-approached all-time highs late this evening and looks primed for another breakout to the upside. This makes sense if you're paying attention. The high-velocity trash economy running on an obscene amount of debt in both the public and private sectors seems to be breaking at the seams. All the alarm bells are signaling that another big print is coming. And if you hope to preserve your purchasing power or, ideally, increase it as the big print approaches, the only thing that makes sense is to funnel your money into the hardest asset in the world, which is Bitcoin.

via Bitbo

Buckle up, freaks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride. Stay humble, Stack Sats.

Trump's Middle East Peace Strategy: Redefining U.S. Foreign Policy

In his recent Middle East tour, President Trump signaled what our guest Dr. Anas Alhajji calls "a major change in US policy." Trump explicitly rejected the nation-building strategies of his predecessors, contrasting the devastation in Afghanistan and Iraq with the prosperity of countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE. This marks a profound shift from both Republican and Democratic foreign policy orthodoxy. As Alhajji noted, Trump's willingness to meet with Syrian President Assad follows a historical pattern where former adversaries eventually become diplomatic partners.

"This is really one of the most important shifts in US foreign policy to say, look, sorry, we destroyed those countries because we tried to rebuild them and it was a big mistake." - Dr. Anas Alhajji

The administration's new approach emphasizes negotiation over intervention. Rather than military solutions, Trump is engaging with groups previously considered off-limits, including the Houthis, Hamas, and Iran. This pragmatic stance prioritizes economic cooperation and regional stability over ideological confrontation. The focus on trade deals and investment rather than regime change represents a fundamental reimagining of America's role in the Middle East.

Check out the full podcast here for more on the Iran nuclear situation, energy market predictions, and why AI development could create power grid challenges. Only on TFTC Studio.

Headlines of the Day

Bitcoin Soars to 100,217 sats | $106.00K While Bonds Lose 40% Since 2020 - via X

US Senate Advances Stablecoin Bill As America Embraces Bitcoin - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Texas House Debates Bill For State-Run Bitcoin Reserve - via X

---

Take the First Step Off the Exchange

Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.

Take control. Start with Bitkey.

Use the promo code “TFTC20” during checkout for 20% off

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

Don't let the noise consume you. Focus on making your life 1% better every day.

---

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@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0Sj1sG05VQ

Here's a great presentation from our good friend nostr:nprofile1qyx8wumn8ghj7cnjvghxjmcpp4mhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mqqyz2hj3zg2g3pqwxuhg69zgjhke4pcmjmmdpnndnefqndgqjt8exwj6ee8v7 , President of The Nakamoto Institute titled Hodl for Good. He gave it earlier this year at the BitBlockBoom Conference, and I think it's something everyone reading this should take 25 minutes to watch. Especially if you find yourself wondering whether or not it's a good idea to spend bitcoin at any given point in time. Michael gives an incredible Austrian Economics 101 lesson on the importance of lowering one's time preference and fully understanding the importance of hodling bitcoin. For the uninitiated, it may seem that the hodl meme is nothing more than a call to hoard bitcoins in hopes of getting rich eventually. However, as Michael points out, there's layers to the hodl meme and the good that hodling can bring individuals and the economy overall.

The first thing one needs to do to better understand the hodl meme is to completely flip the framing that is typically thrust on bitcoiners who encourage others to hodl. Instead of ceding that hodling is a greedy or selfish action, remind people that hodling, or better known as saving, is the foundation of capital formation, from which all productive and efficient economic activity stems. Number go up technology is great and it really matters. It matters because it enables anybody leveraging that technology to accumulate capital that can then be allocated toward productive endeavors that bring value to the individual who creates them and the individual who buys them.

When one internalizes this, it enables them to turn to personal praxis and focus on minimizing present consumption while thinking of ways to maximize long-term value creation. Live below your means, stack sats, and use the time that you're buying to think about things that you want in the future. By lowering your time preference and saving in a harder money you will have the luxury of demanding higher quality goods in the future. Another way of saying this is that you will be able to reshape production by voting with your sats. Initially when you hold them off the market by saving them - signaling that the market doesn't have goods worthy of your sats - and ultimately by redeploying them into the market when you find higher quality goods that meet the standards desire.

The first part of this equation is extremely important because it sends a signal to producers that they need to increase the quality of their work. As more and more individuals decide to use bitcoin as their savings technology, the signal gets stronger. And over many cycles we should begin to see low quality cheap goods exit the market in favor of higher quality goods that provide more value and lasts longer and, therefore, make it easier for an individual to depart with their hard-earned and hard-saved sats. This is only but one aspect that Michael tries to imbue throughout his presentation.

The other is the ability to buy yourself leisure time when you lower your time preference and save more than you spend. When your savings hit a critical tipping point that gives you the luxury to sit back and experience true leisure, which Michael explains is not idleness, but the contemplative space to study, create art, refine taste, and to find what "better goods" actually are. Those who can experience true leisure while reaping the benefits of saving in a hard asset that is increasing in purchasing power significantly over the long term are those who build truly great things. Things that outlast those who build them. Great art, great monuments, great institutions were all built by men who were afforded the time to experience leisure. Partly because they were leveraging hard money as their savings and the place they stored the profits reaped from their entrepreneurial endeavors.

If you squint and look into the future a couple of decades, it isn't hard to see a reality like this manifesting. As more people begin to save in Bitcoin, the forces of supply and demand will continue to come into play. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin, there are around 8 billion people on this planet, and as more of those 8 billion individuals decide that bitcoin is the best savings vehicle, the price of bitcoin will rise.

When the price of bitcoin rises, it makes all other goods cheaper in bitcoin terms and, again, expands the entrepreneurial opportunity. The best part about this feedback loop is that even non-holders of bitcoin benefit through higher real wages and faster tech diffusion. The individuals and business owners who decide to hodl bitcoin will bring these benefits to the world whether you decide to use bitcoin or not.

This is why it is virtuous to hodl bitcoin. The potential for good things to manifest throughout the world increase when more individuals decide to hodl bitcoin. And as Michael very eloquently points out, this does not mean that people will not spend their bitcoin. It simply means that they have standards for the things that they will spend their bitcoin on. And those standards are higher than most who are fully engrossed in the high velocity trash economy have today.

In my opinion, one of those higher causes worthy of a sats donation is nostr:nprofile1qyfhwumn8ghj7enjv4jhyetvv9uju7re0gq3uamnwvaz7tmfdemxjmrvv9nk2tt0w468v6tvd3skwefwvdhk6qpqwzc9lz2f40azl98shkjewx3pywg5e5alwqxg09ew2mdyeey0c2rqcfecft . Consider donating so they can preserve and disseminate vital information about bitcoin and its foundations.

The Shell Game: How Health Narratives May Distract from Vaccine Risks

In our recent podcast, Dr. Jack Kruse presented a concerning theory about public health messaging. He argues that figures like Casey and Callie Means are promoting food and exercise narratives as a deliberate distraction from urgent vaccine issues. While no one disputes healthy eating matters, Dr. Kruse insists that focusing on "Froot Loops and Red Dye" diverts attention from what he sees as immediate dangers of mRNA vaccines, particularly for children.

"It's gonna take you 50 years to die from processed food. But the messenger jab can drop you like Damar Hamlin." - Dr Jack Kruse

Dr. Kruse emphasized that approximately 25,000 children per month are still receiving COVID vaccines despite concerns, with 3 million doses administered since Trump's election. This "shell game," as he describes it, allows vaccines to remain on childhood schedules while public attention fixates on less immediate health threats. As host, I believe this pattern deserves our heightened scrutiny given the potential stakes for our children's wellbeing.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Big Pharma's alleged bioweapons program, the "Time Bank Account" concept, and how Bitcoin principles apply to health sovereignty.

Headlines of the Day

Aussie Judge: Bitcoin is Money, Possibly CGT-Exempt - via X

JPMorgan to Let Clients Buy Bitcoin Without Direct Custody - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Mubadala Acquires 384,239 sats | $408.50M Stake in BlackRock Bitcoin ETF - via X

---

Take the First Step Off the Exchange

Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.

Take control. Start with Bitkey.

Use the promo code “TFTC20” during checkout for 20% off

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

I've been walking from my house around Town Lake in Austin in the mornings and taking calls on the walk. Big fan of a walking call.

---

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@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

It's been a pretty historic week for the United States as it pertains to geopolitical relations in the Middle East. President Trump and many members of his administration, including AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, traveled across the Middle East making deals with countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Syria, and others. Many are speculating that Iran may be included in some behind the scenes deal as well. This trip to the Middle East makes sense considering the fact that China is also vying for favorable relationships with those countries. The Middle East is a power player in the world, and it seems pretty clear that Donald Trump is dead set on ensuring that they choose the United States over China as the world moves towards a more multi-polar reality.

Many are calling the events of this week the Riyadh Accords. There were many deals that were struck in relation to artificial intelligence, defense, energy and direct investments in the United States. A truly prolific power play and demonstration of deal-making ability of Donald Trump, if you ask me. Though I will admit some of the numbers that were thrown out by some of the countries were a bit egregious. We shall see how everything plays out in the coming years. It will be interesting to see how China reacts to this power move by the United States.

While all this was going on, there was something happening back in the United States that many people outside of fringe corners of FinTwit are not talking about, which is the fact that the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yields are back on the rise. Yesterday, they surpassed the levels of mid-April that caused a market panic and are hovering back around levels that have not been seen since right before Donald Trump's inauguration.

I imagine that there isn't as much of an uproar right now because I'm pretty confident the media freakouts we were experiencing in mid-April were driven by the fact that many large hedge funds found themselves off sides of large levered basis trades. I wouldn't be surprised if those funds have decreased their leverage in those trades and bond yields being back to mid-April levels is not affecting those funds as much as they were last month. But the point stands, the 10-year and 30-year yields are significantly elevated with the 30-year approaching 5%. Regardless of the deals that are currently being made in the Middle East, the Treasury has a big problem on its hands. It still has to roll over many trillions worth of debt over over the next few years and doing so at these rates is going to be massively detrimental to fiscal deficits over the next decade. The interest expense on the debt is set to explode in the coming years.

On that note, data from the first quarter of 2025 has been released by the government and despite all the posturing by the Trump administration around DOGE and how tariffs are going to be beneficial for the U.S. economy, deficits are continuing to explode while the interest expense on the debt has definitively surpassed our annual defense budget.

via Charlie Bilello

via Mohamed Al-Erian

To make matters worse, as things are deteriorating on the fiscal side of things, the U.S. consumer is getting crushed by credit. The 90-plus day delinquency rates for credit card and auto loans are screaming higher right now.

via TXMC

One has to wonder how long all this can continue without some sort of liquidity crunch. Even though equities markets have recovered from their post-Liberation Day month long bear market, I would not be surprised if what we're witnessing is a dead cat bounce that can only be continued if the money printers are turned back on. Something's got to give, both on the fiscal side and in the private markets where the Common Man is getting crushed because he's been forced to take on insane amounts of debt to stay afloat after years of elevated levels of inflation. Add on the fact that AI has reached a state of maturity that will enable companies to replace their current meat suit workers with an army of cheap, efficient and fast digital workers and it isn't hard to see that some sort of employment crisis could be on the horizon as well.

Now is not the time to get complacent. While I do believe that the deals that are currently being made in the Middle East are probably in the best interest of the United States as the world, again, moves toward a more multi-polar reality, we are facing problems that one cannot simply wish away. They will need to be confronted. And as we've seen throughout the 21st century, the problems are usually met head-on with a money printer.

I take no pleasure in saying this because it is a bit uncouth to be gleeful to benefit from the strife of others, but it is pretty clear to me that all signs are pointing to bitcoin benefiting massively from everything that is going on. The shift towards a more multi-polar world, the runaway debt situation here in the United States, the increasing deficits, the AI job replacements and the consumer credit crisis that is currently unfolding, All will need to be "solved" by turning on the money printers to levels they've never been pushed to before.

Weird times we're living in.

China's Manufacturing Dominance: Why It Matters for the U.S.

In my recent conversation with Lyn Alden, she highlighted how China has rapidly ascended the manufacturing value chain. As Lyn pointed out, China transformed from making "sneakers and plastic trinkets" to becoming the world's largest auto exporter in just four years. This dramatic shift represents more than economic success—it's a strategic power play. China now dominates solar panel production with greater market control than OPEC has over oil and maintains near-monopoly control of rare earth elements crucial for modern technology.

"China makes like 10 times more steel than the United States does... which is relevant in ship making. It's relevant in all sorts of stuff." - Lyn Alden

Perhaps most concerning, as Lyn emphasized, is China's financial leverage. They hold substantial U.S. assets that could be strategically sold to disrupt U.S. treasury market functioning. This combination of manufacturing dominance, resource control, and financial leverage gives China significant negotiating power in any trade disputes, making our attempts to reshoring manufacturing all the more challenging.

Check out the full podcast here for more on Triffin's dilemma, Bitcoin's role in monetary transition, and the energy requirements for rebuilding America's industrial base.

Headlines of the Day

Financial Times Under Fire Over MicroStrategy Bitcoin Coverage - via X

Trump in Qatar: Historic Boeing Deal Signed - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Johnson Backs Stock Trading Ban; Passage Chances Slim - via X

---

Take the First Step Off the Exchange

Bitkey is an easy, secure way to move your Bitcoin into self-custody. With simple setup and built-in recovery, it’s the perfect starting point for getting your coins off centralized platforms and into cold storage—no complexity, no middlemen.

Take control. Start with Bitkey.

Use the promo code “TFTC20” during checkout for 20% off

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 158,469 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

Building things of value is satisfying.

---

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:

@ 30b99916:3cc6e3fe

For all you COVID COWARDS out there perhaps you can redeem yourself by supporting America's Frontline Docters

History will show that the defeat of COVID tyranny wasn’t granted – it was won, case by case, voice by voice – and your support for America’s Frontline Doctors played an important role in this fight.  

America 2020 – our nation faced a moment of truth.  

Public health soldiers working for deep-state globalists unleashed tyranny in response to a virus - to terrorize us and dismantle our Constitution.  

When I look back on the forces arrayed against us, I’m amazed more people did NOT stand up for their rights:

_Government agencies...hospitals...universities...corporations..._

...the state acting as our “savior” ...

...and Big Tech as the enforcer...

All joined forces to impose sweeping authoritarian mandates under the banners of public health and settled science.

_They declared freedom and liberty non-essential._

_They silenced, fired, shamed, and canceled ANYONE who dared question them._

ANYONE who resisted the masking, the lockdowns, the forced mRNA injections, are HEROS.

It angers me just thinking about what happened next.

Everyday Americans lost their livelihoods.

Parents watched as their children deteriorated after being locked out of their schools.  

Doctors – some of the best in the country – were hunted down by their own licensing boards for practicing ACTUAL medicine instead of government-approved pseudoscience.  

I hate to admit it, but tyranny triumphed.

The people had surrendered so much liberty that I didn’t recognize the nation our founders had forged.  

I’m sure you didn’t either.  

But while we can’t undo the past, we can make sure we don’t repeat it. 

That is why America’s Frontline Doctors and I – with you alongside us – have been fighting back.  

And together, we’ve been doing it case by case, supporting legal challenges against these unconstitutional, totalitarian mandates.

@ 2b998b04:86727e47

I didn’t take a course on “prompt engineering.” I didn’t memorize secret formulas or chase viral hacks.

What I did do was treat it like a system.

Just like in software:

Write → Compile → Test → Debug → Repeat

With AI, the loop feels just as familiar:

Prompt → Output → Edit → Re-prompt

That’s not magic. That’s engineering.

---

When someone asked me, “How can you trust AI for anything serious?”\ I told them: “Same way we trust the internet — not because the network’s reliable, but because the protocol is.”

AI is no different. The key is building systems around it:

• Multiple models if needed

• Human-in-the-loop verification

• Layered editing and real discernment

---

It’s Not That Different From Other Engineering

Once you stop treating AI like a black box and start treating it like a tool, the whole experience changes.

The prompt isn’t a spell. It’s a spec.\ The response isn’t a prophecy. It’s a build.\ And your discernment? That’s your QA layer.

---

What I Actually Use It For

• Brainstorming titles and refining headlines

• Drafting posts that I shape and filter

• Running content through for edge cases

• Exploring theological or philosophical questions

And yes — I want it to be useful. I am building to make a living, not just to make noise. But I don’t lead with monetization. I lead with clarity — and build toward sustainability.

---

Final Thought

If you’re waiting for a course to teach you how to “do AI,” maybe just start by building something real. Test it. Edit it. Use it again. That’s engineering.

Shoutout to Dr. C (ChatGPT) for helping me articulate this.

If this post sparked anything for you, zap a few sats ⚡ — every bit helps me keep building with conviction.

@ 3f770d65:7a745b24

I’m Derek Ross, and I’m all-in on Nostr.

I started the Grow Nostr Initiative to help more people discover what makes Nostr so powerful: ✅ You own your identity ✅ You choose your social graph and algorithms ✅ You aren't locked into any single app or platform ✅ You can post, stream, chat, and build, all without gatekeepers

What we’re doing with Grow Nostr Initiative: 🌱 Hosting local meetups and mini-conferences to onboard people face-to-face 📚 Creating educational materials and guides to demystify how Nostr works 🧩 Helping businesses and creators understand how they can plug into Nostr (running media servers, relays, and using key management tools)

I believe Nostr is the foundation of a more open internet. It’s still early, but we’re already seeing incredible apps for social, blogging, podcasting, livestreaming, and more. And the best part is that they're all interoperable, censorship-resistant, and built on open standards. Nostr is the world's largest bitcoin economy by transaction volume and I truly believe that the purple pill helps the orange pill go down. Meaning, growing Nostr will also grow Bitcoin adoption.

If you’ve been curious about Nostr or are building something on it, or let’s talk. Whether you're just getting started or you're already deep in the ecosystem, I'm here to answer questions, share what I’ve learned, and hear your ideas. Check out https://nostrapps.com to find your next social decentralized experience.

Ask Me Anything about GNI, Nostr, Bitcoin, the upcoming #NosVegas event at the Bitcoin Conference next week, etc.!

– Derek Ross 🌐 https://grownostr.org npub18ams6ewn5aj2n3wt2qawzglx9mr4nzksxhvrdc4gzrecw7n5tvjqctp424

https://stacker.news/items/984689

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

via me

It seems like every other day there's another company announced that is going public with the intent of competing with Strategy by leveraging capital markets to create financial instruments to acquire Bitcoin in a way that is accretive for shareholders. This is certainly a very interesting trend, very bullish for bitcoin in the short-term, and undoubtedly making it so bitcoin is top of mind in the mainstream. I won't pretend to know whether or not these strategies will ultimately be successful or fail in the short, medium or long term. However, one thing I do know is that the themes that interest me, both here at TFTC and in my role as Managing Partner at Ten31, are companies that are building good businesses that are efficient, have product-market-fit, generate revenues and profits and roll those profits into bitcoin.

While it seems pretty clear that Strategy has tapped into an arbitrage that exists in capital markets, it's not really that exciting. From a business perspective, it's actually pretty straightforward and simple; find where potential arbitrage opportunities exists between pools of capital looking for exposure to spot bitcoin or bitcoin's volatility but can't buy the actual asset, and provide them with products that give them access to exposure while simultaneously creating a cult-like retail following. Rinse and repeat. To the extent that this strategy is repeatable is yet to be seen. I imagine it can expand pretty rapidly. Particularly if we have a speculative fervor around companies that do this. But in the long run, I think the signal is falling back to first principles, looking for businesses that are actually providing goods and services to the broader economy - not focused on the hyper-financialized part of the economy - to provide value and create efficiencies that enable higher margins and profitability.

With this in mind, I think it's important to highlight the combined leverage that entrepreneurs have by utilizing bitcoin treasuries and AI tools that are emerging and becoming more advanced by the week. As I said in the tweet above, there's never been a better time to start a business that finds product-market fit and cash flows quickly with a team of two to three people. If you've been reading this rag over the last few weeks, you know that I've been experimenting with these AI tools and using them to make our business processes more efficient here at TFTC. I've also been using them at Ten31 to do deep research and analysis.

It has become abundantly clear to me that any founder or entrepreneur that is not utilizing the AI tools that are emerging is going to get left behind. As it stands today, all anyone has to do to get an idea from a thought in your head to the prototype stage to a minimum viable product is to hop into something like Claude or ChatGPT, have a brief conversation with an AI model that can do deep research about a particular niche that you want to provide a good service to and begin building.

Later this week, I will launch an app called Opportunity Cost in the Chrome and Firefox stores. It took me a few hours of work over the span of a week to ideate and iterate on the concept to the point where I had a working prototype that I handed off to a developer who is solving the last mile problem I have as an "idea guy" of getting the product to market. Only six months ago, accomplishing something like this would have been impossible for me. I've never written a line of code that's actually worked outside of the modded MySpace page I made back in middle school. I've always had a lot of ideas but have never been able to effectively communicate them to developers who can actually build them. With a combination of ChatGPT-03 and Replit, I was able to build an actual product that works. I'm using it in my browser today. It's pretty insane.

There are thousands of people coming to the same realization at the same time right now and going out there and building niche products very cheaply, with small teams, they are getting to market very quickly, and are amassing five figures, six figures, sometimes seven figures of MRR with extremely high profit margins. What most of these entrepreneurs have not really caught on to yet is that they should be cycling a portion - in my opinion, a large portion - of those profits into bitcoin. The combination of building a company utilizing these AI tools, getting it to market, getting revenue and profits, and turning those profits into bitcoin cannot be understated. You're going to begin seeing teams of one to ten people building businesses worth billions of dollars and they're going to need to store the value they create, any money that cannot be debased.

nostr:nprofile1qyx8wumn8ghj7cnjvghxjmcpz4mhxue69uhk2er9dchxummnw3ezumrpdejqqgy8fkmd9kmm8yp4lea2cx0g8fyz27g4ud7572j4edx2v6lz6aa23qmp5dth , one of the co-founders of Ten31, wrote about this in early 2024, bitcoin being the fourth lever of equity value growth for companies.

Bitcoin Treasury - The Fourth Lever to Equity Value Growth

We already see this theme playing out at Ten31 with some of our portfolio companies, most notably nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgqgdwaehxw309ahx7uewd3hkcqpqex7mdykw786qxvmtuls208uyxmn0hse95rfwsarvfde5yg6wy7jqjrm2qp , which recently released some of their financials, highlighting the fact that they're extremely profitable with high margins and a relatively small team (\~75). This is extremely impressive, especially when you consider the fact that they're a global company competing with the likes of Coinbase and Block, which have each thousands of employees.

Even those who are paying attention to the developments in the AI space and how the tools can enable entrepreneurs to build faster aren't really grasping the gravity of what's at play here. Many are simply thinking of consumer apps that can be built and distributed quickly to market, but the ways in which AI can be implemented extend far beyond the digital world. Here's a great example of a company a fellow freak is building with the mindset of keeping the team small, utilizing AI tools to automate processes and quickly push profits into bitcoin.

via Cormac

Again, this is where the exciting things are happening in my mind. People leveraging new tools to solve real problems to drive real value that ultimately produce profits for entrepreneurs. The entrepreneurs who decide to save those profits in bitcoin will find that the equity value growth of their companies accelerates exponentially as they provide more value, gain more traction, and increase their profits while also riding the bitcoin as it continues on its monetization phase. The compounded leverage of building a company that leverages AI tools and sweeps profits into bitcoin is going to be one of the biggest asymmetric plays of the next decade. Personally, I also see it as something that's much more fulfilling than the pure play bitcoin treasury companies that are coming to market because consumers and entrepreneurs are able to recive and provide a ton of value in the real economy.

If you're looking to stay on top of the developments in the AI space and how you can apply the tools to help build your business or create a new business, I highly recommend you follow somebody like Greg Isenberg, whose Startup Ideas Podcast has been incredibly valuable for me as I attempt to get a lay of the land of how to implement AI into my businesses.

America's Two Economies

In my recent podcast with Lyn Alden, she outlined how our trade deficits create a cycle that's reshaping America's economic geography. As Alden explained, US trade deficits pump dollars into international markets, but these dollars don't disappear - they return as investments in US financial assets. This cycle gradually depletes industrial heartlands while enriching financial centers on the coasts, creating what amounts to two separate American economies.

"We're basically constantly taking economic vibrancy out of Michigan and Ohio and rural Pennsylvania where the steel mills were... and stuffing it back into financial assets in New York and Silicon Valley." - nostr:nprofile1qy2hwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytndv9kxjm3wdahxcqg5waehxw309ahx7um5wfekzarkvyhxuet5qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncdhu7e3

This pattern has persisted for over four decades, accelerating significantly since the early 1980s. Alden emphasized that while economists may argue there's still room before reaching a crisis point, the political consequences are already here. The growing divide between these two Americas has fueled populist sentiment as voters who feel left behind seek economic rebalancing, even if they can't articulate the exact mechanisms causing their hardship.

Check out the full podcast here for more on China's manufacturing dominance, Trump's tariff strategy, and the future of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset. All discussed in under 60 minutes.

Headlines of the Day

Trump's Saudi Summit: Peace and Economic Ties - via X

MSTR Edges Closer To S\&P 500 With Just 89 Trading Days Left - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Individuals Shed 247K Bitcoin As Businesses Gain 157K - via X

---

Looking for the perfect video to push the smartest person you know from zero to one on bitcoin? Bitcoin, Not Crypto is a three-part master class from Parker Lewis and Dhruv Bansal that cuts through the noise—covering why 21 million was the key technical simplification that made bitcoin possible, why blockchains don’t create decentralization, and why everything else will be built on bitcoin.

Sign Up

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 144,229 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

My boys have started a game in the car where we count how many Waymos we see on the road while driving around town. Pretty crazy how innately stoked they are about that particular car.

---

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@ c9badfea:610f861a

1. Install Sky Map (it's free and open source)
2. Launch the app and tap Accept, then tap OK
3. When asked to access the device's location, tap While Using The App
4. Tap somewhere on the screen to activate the menu, then tap ⁝ and select Settings
5. Disable Send Usage Statistics
6. Return to the main screen and enjoy stargazing!

ℹ️ Use the 🔍 icon in the upper toolbar to search for a specific celestial body, or tap the 👁️ icon to activate night mode

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

via Kevin McKernan

There's been a lot of discussion this week about Casey Means being nominated for Surgeon General of the United States and a broader overarching conversation about the effectiveness of MAHA since the inauguration and how effective it may or may not be moving forward. Many would say that President Trump won re-election due to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan deciding to reach across the aisle and join the Trump ticket, bringing with them the MAHA Moms, who are very focused on reorienting the healthcare system in the United States with a strong focus on the childhood vaccine schedule.

I'm not going to lie, this is something I'm passionate about as well, particularly after having many conversations over the years with doctors like Kevin McKernan, Dr. Jack Kruse, Dr. Mary Talley Bowden, Dr. Brooke Miller, Dr. Peter McCullough and others about the dangers of the COVID mRNA vaccines. As it stands today, I think this is the biggest elephant in the room in the world of healthcare. If you look at the data, particularly disability claims, life insurance claims, life expectancy, miscarriage rates, fertility issues and rates of turbo cancer around the world since the COVID vaccine was introduced in 2021, it seems pretty clear that there is harm being done to many of the people who have taken them.

The risk-reward ratio of the vaccines seems to be incredibly skewed towards risk over reward and children - who have proven to be least susceptible to COVID - are expected to get three COVID shots in the first year of their life if their parents follow the vaccine schedule. For some reason or another it seems that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has shied away from this topic after becoming the head of Health and Human Services within the Trump administration. This is after a multi-year campaign during which getting the vaccines removed from the market war a core part of his platform messaging.

I'm still holding out hope that sanity will prevail. The COVID mRNA vaccines will be taken off the market in a serious conversation about the crimes against humanity that unfolded during the COVID years will take place. However, we cannot depend on that outcome. We must build with the assumption in mind that that outcome may never materialize. This leads to identifying where the incentives within the system are misconstrued. One area where I think it's pretty safe to say that the incentives are misaligned is the fact that 95% of doctors work for and answer to a corporation driven by their bottom line. Instead of listening to their patients and truly caring about the outcome of each individual, doctors forced to think about the monetary outcome of the corporation they work for first.

The most pernicious way in which these misaligned incentives emerge is the way in which the hospital systems and physicians are monetarily incentivized by big pharma companies to push the COVID vaccine and other vaccines on their patients. It is important to acknowledge that we cannot be dependent on a system designed in this way to change from within. Instead, we must build a new incentive system and market structure. And obviously, if you're reading this newsletter, you know that I believe that bitcoin will play a pivotal role in realigning incentives across every industry. Healthcare just being one of them.

Bitcoiners who have identified the need to become sovereign in our monetary matters, it probably makes sense to become sovereign when it comes to our healthcare as well. This means finding doctors who operate outside the corporate controlled system and are able to offer services that align incentives with the end patient. My family utilizes a combination of CrowdHealth and a private care physician to align incentives. We've even utilized a private care physician who allowed us to pay in Bitcoin for her services for a number of years. I think this is the model. Doctors accepting hard censorship resistant money for the healthcare and advice they provide. Instead of working for a corporation looking to push pharmaceutical products on their patients so they can bolster their bottom line, work directly with patients who will pay in bitcoin, which will appreciate in value over time.

I had a lengthy discussion with Dr. Jack Kruse on the podcast earlier today discussing these topic and more. It will be released on Thursday and I highly recommend you freaks check it out once it is published. Make sure you subscribe so you don't miss it.

How the "Exorbitant Privilege" of the Dollar is Undermining Our Manufacturing Base

In my conversation with Lyn Alden, we explored America's fundamental economic contradiction. As Lyn expertly explained, maintaining the dollar's reserve currency status while attempting to reshore manufacturing presents a near-impossible challenge - what economists call Triffin's Dilemma. The world's appetite for dollars gives Americans tremendous purchasing power but simultaneously hollows out our industrial base. The overvalued dollar makes our exports less competitive, especially for lower-margin manufacturing, while our imports remain artificially strong.

"Having the reserve currency does come with a bunch of benefits, historically called an exorbitant privilege, but then it has certain costs to maintain it." - Lyn Alden

This dilemma forces America to run persistent trade deficits, as this is how dollars flow to the world. For over four decades, these deficits have accumulated, creating massive economic imbalances that can't be quickly reversed. The Trump administration's attempts to address this through tariffs showcase how difficult rebalancing has become. As Lyn warned, even if we successfully pivot toward reshoring manufacturing, we'll face difficult trade-offs: potentially giving up some reserve currency benefits to rebuild our industrial foundation. This isn't just economic theory - it's the restructuring challenge that will define America's economic future.

Check out the full podcast here for more on China's manufacturing dominance, the role of Bitcoin in monetary transitions, and energy production as the foundation for future industrial power.

Headlines of the Day

Coinbase to replace Discover in S\&P 500 on May 19 - via X

Mallers promises no rehypothecation in Strike Bitcoin loans - via X

Get our new STACK SATS hat - via tftcmerch.io

Missouri passes HB 594, eliminates Bitcoin capital gains tax - via X

---

The 2025 Bitcoin Policy Summit is set for June 25th—and it couldn’t come at a more important time. The Bitcoin industry is at a pivotal moment in Washington, with initiatives like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve gaining rapid traction. Whether you’re a builder, advocate, academic, or policymaker—we want you at the table. Join us in DC to help define the future of freedom, money & innovation in the 21st century.

Sign Up

---

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 144,264 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

The 100+ degree days have returned to Austin, TX. Not mad about it... yet.

---

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:

@ da8b7de1:c0164aee

TVA SMR-építési engedélykérelem Clinch Riverben

A Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) benyújtotta az első kis moduláris reaktor (SMR) építési engedélykérelmet az Egyesült Államokban, a Clinch River-i telephelyre. Ez a lépés mérföldkő az amerikai nukleáris ipar számára, hiszen a BWRX-300 típusú SMR-rel a TVA célja a szén-dioxid-mentes energiatermelés bővítése és az innovatív nukleáris technológia bevezetése.

ČEZ új nukleáris telephelyet jelölt ki Csehországban

A cseh ČEZ energetikai vállalat kijelölte a Tušimice-i telephelyet egy új atomerőmű számára, ahol várhatóan kis moduláris reaktorokat (SMR) telepítenek. Ez a lépés segíti az országot az energiafüggetlenség és a szénalapú energiatermelés kivezetése felé vezető úton.

Urenco USA új dúsító kaszkádot indított

Az Urenco USA New Mexicóban elindította új gázcentrifuga kaszkádját, amely 15%-kal növeli az amerikai dúsított urán kapacitást. Ez kulcsfontosságú az orosz uránimporttól való függetlenedés és az amerikai atomerőművek ellátásbiztonsága szempontjából.

Fiatal szakemberek sürgetik a nukleáris energia központi szerepét Európában

Európai fiatal nukleáris szakemberek nyílt levélben hívták fel a döntéshozók figyelmét arra, hogy a nukleáris energia kapjon központi szerepet a kontinens dekarbonizációs stratégiájában. Kiemelték a kutatás-fejlesztés, a befektetési környezet javítása és a társadalmi elfogadottság növelésének fontosságát.

Zeno Power 50 millió dolláros befektetést szerzett

Az amerikai Zeno Power startup 50 millió dolláros befektetést jelentett be nukleáris akkumulátorok fejlesztésére, amelyek extrém környezetekben – például az űrben vagy tenger alatt – biztosítanak megbízható energiát. A cég célja, hogy 2027-re kereskedelmi forgalomba hozza első rendszereit.

További globális nukleáris fejlemények

Több ország – például India, Kína, Belgium, Kanada, Brazília – is új nukleáris projekteket jelentett be, miközben a nemzetközi konferenciák az ellátási láncok megerősítését és a nukleáris kapacitások bővítését helyezik előtérbe.

---

Hivatkozások

• tva.com
• en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ČEZ_Group
• urencousa.com
• zenopower.com
• fisa-euradwaste2025.ncbj.gov.pl
• world-nuclear.org
• nucnet.org

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

Last week we covered the bombshell developments in the Samourai Wallet case. For those who didn't read that, last Monday the world was made aware of the fact that the SDNY was explicitly told by FinCEN that the federal regulator did not believe that Samourai Wallet was a money services business six months before arresting the co-founders of Samourai Wallet for conspiracy to launder money and illegally operating a money services business. This was an obvious overstep by the SDNY that many believed would be quickly alleviated, especially considering the fact that the Trump administration via the Department of Justice has made it clear that they do not intend to rule via prosecution.

It seems that this is not the case as the SDNY responded to a letter sent from the defense to dismiss the case by stating that they fully plan to move forward. Stating that they only sought the recommendations of FinCEN employees and did not believe that those employees' comments were indicative of FinCEN's overall views on this particular case. It's a pretty egregious abuse of power by the SDNY. I'm not sure if the particular lawyers and judges within the Southern District of New York are very passionate about preventing the use of self-custody bitcoin and products that enable bitcoiners to transact privately, or if they're simply participating in a broader meta war with the Trump administration - who has made it clear to federal judges across the country that last Fall's election will have consequences, mainly that the Executive Branch will try to effectuate the policies that President Trump campaigned on by any legal means necessary - and Samouari Wallet is simply in the middle of that meta war.

However, one thing is pretty clear to me, this is an egregious overstep of power. The interpretation of that law, as has been laid out and confirmed by FinCEN over the last decade, is pretty clear; you cannot be a money services business if you do not control the funds that people are sending to each other, which is definitely the case with Samourai Wallet. People downloaded Samourai Wallet, spun up their own private-public key pairs and initiated transactions themselves. Samourai never custodied funds or initiated transactions on behalf of their users. This is very cut and dry. Straight to the point. It should be something that anyone with more than two brain cells is able to discern pretty quickly.

It is imperative that anybody in the industry who cares about being able to hold bitcoin in self-custody, to mine bitcoin, and to send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion makes some noise around this case. None of the current administration's attempts to foster innovation around bitcoin in the United States will matter if the wrong precedent is set in this case. If the SDNY is successful in prosecuting Samourai Wallet, it will mean that anybody holding Bitcoin in self-custody, running a bitcoin fold node or mining bitcoin will have to KYC all of their users and counterparts lest they be labeled a money services business that is breaking laws stemming from the Bank Secrecy Act. This will effectively make building a self-custody bitcoin wallet, running a node, or mining bitcoin in tillegal in the United States. The ability to comply with the rules that would be unleashed if this Samourai case goes the wrong way, are such that it will effectively destroy the industry overnight.

It is yet to be seen whether or not the Department of Justice will step in to publicly flog the SDNY and force them to stop pursuing this case. This is the only likely way that the case will go away at this point, so it is very important that bitcoiners who care about being able to self-custody bitcoin, mine bitcoin, or send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion in the United States make it clear to the current administration and any local politicians that this is an issue that you care deeply about. If we are too complacent, there is a chance that the SDNY could completely annihilate the bitcoin industry in America despite of all of the positive momentum we're seeing from all angles at the moment.

Make some noise!

Bitcoin Adoption by Power Companies: The Next Frontier

In my recent conversation with Andrew Myers from Satoshi Energy, he shared their ambitious mission to "enable every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000" – roughly three years from now. This strategic imperative isn't just about creating new Bitcoin users; it's about sovereignty. Andrew emphasized that getting Bitcoin into the hands of energy companies who value self-sovereignty creates a more balanced future economic landscape. The excitement was palpable as he described how several energy companies are already moving beyond simply selling power to Bitcoin miners and are beginning to invest in mining operations themselves.

"You have global commodity companies being like, 'Oh, this is another commodity – we want to invest in this, we want to own this,'" - Andrew Myers

Perhaps most fascinating was Andrew's revelation about major energy companies in Texas developing Bitcoin collateral products for power contracts – a practical application that could revolutionize how energy transactions are settled. As energy companies continue embracing Bitcoin for both operations and collateral, we're witnessing the early stages of a profound shift in how critical infrastructure interfaces with sound money. The implications for both sectors could be transformative.

Check out the full podcast here for more on remote viewing, Nikola Tesla's predictions, and the convergence of Bitcoin and AI technology. We cover everything from humanoid robots to the energy demands of next-generation computing.

Headlines of the Day

Steak n Shake to Accept Bitcoin at All Locations May 16 - via X

Facebook Plans Crypto Wallets for 3B Users, Bitcoin Impact Looms - via X

Trump Urges Americans to Buy Stocks for Economic Boom - via X

UK Drops Tariffs, U.S. Farmers Set to Reap Major Benefits - via X

---

Looking for the perfect video to push the smartest person you know from zero to one on bitcoin? Bitcoin, Not Crypto is a three-part master class from Parker Lewis and Dhruv Bansal that cuts through the noise—covering why 21 million was the key technical simplification that made bitcoin possible, why blockchains don’t create decentralization, and why everything else will be built on bitcoin.

Sign Up

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 145,630 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

Happy belated Mother's Day to all the moms out there.

---

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

Last week we covered the bombshell developments in the Samourai Wallet case. For those who didn't read that, last Monday the world was made aware of the fact that the SDNY was explicitly told by FinCEN that the federal regulator did not believe that Samourai Wallet was a money services business six months before arresting the co-founders of Samourai Wallet for conspiracy to launder money and illegally operating a money services business. This was an obvious overstep by the SDNY that many believed would be quickly alleviated, especially considering the fact that the Trump administration via the Department of Justice has made it clear that they do not intend to rule via prosecution.

It seems that this is not the case as the SDNY responded to a letter sent from the defense to dismiss the case by stating that they fully plan to move forward. Stating that they only sought the recommendations of FinCEN employees and did not believe that those employees' comments were indicative of FinCEN's overall views on this particular case. It's a pretty egregious abuse of power by the SDNY. I'm not sure if the particular lawyers and judges within the Southern District of New York are very passionate about preventing the use of self-custody bitcoin and products that enable bitcoiners to transact privately, or if they're simply participating in a broader meta war with the Trump administration - who has made it clear to federal judges across the country that last Fall's election will have consequences, mainly that the Executive Branch will try to effectuate the policies that President Trump campaigned on by any legal means necessary - and Samouari Wallet is simply in the middle of that meta war.

However, one thing is pretty clear to me, this is an egregious overstep of power. The interpretation of that law, as has been laid out and confirmed by FinCEN over the last decade, is pretty clear; you cannot be a money services business if you do not control the funds that people are sending to each other, which is definitely the case with Samourai Wallet. People downloaded Samourai Wallet, spun up their own private-public key pairs and initiated transactions themselves. Samourai never custodied funds or initiated transactions on behalf of their users. This is very cut and dry. Straight to the point. It should be something that anyone with more than two brain cells is able to discern pretty quickly.

It is imperative that anybody in the industry who cares about being able to hold bitcoin in self-custody, to mine bitcoin, and to send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion makes some noise around this case. None of the current administration's attempts to foster innovation around bitcoin in the United States will matter if the wrong precedent is set in this case. If the SDNY is successful in prosecuting Samourai Wallet, it will mean that anybody holding Bitcoin in self-custody, running a bitcoin fold node or mining bitcoin will have to KYC all of their users and counterparts lest they be labeled a money services business that is breaking laws stemming from the Bank Secrecy Act. This will effectively make building a self-custody bitcoin wallet, running a node, or mining bitcoin in tillegal in the United States. The ability to comply with the rules that would be unleashed if this Samourai case goes the wrong way, are such that it will effectively destroy the industry overnight.

It is yet to be seen whether or not the Department of Justice will step in to publicly flog the SDNY and force them to stop pursuing this case. This is the only likely way that the case will go away at this point, so it is very important that bitcoiners who care about being able to self-custody bitcoin, mine bitcoin, or send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion in the United States make it clear to the current administration and any local politicians that this is an issue that you care deeply about. If we are too complacent, there is a chance that the SDNY could completely annihilate the bitcoin industry in America despite of all of the positive momentum we're seeing from all angles at the moment.

Make some noise!

Bitcoin Adoption by Power Companies: The Next Frontier

In my recent conversation with Andrew Myers from Satoshi Energy, he shared their ambitious mission to "enable every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000" – roughly three years from now. This strategic imperative isn't just about creating new Bitcoin users; it's about sovereignty. Andrew emphasized that getting Bitcoin into the hands of energy companies who value self-sovereignty creates a more balanced future economic landscape. The excitement was palpable as he described how several energy companies are already moving beyond simply selling power to Bitcoin miners and are beginning to invest in mining operations themselves.

"You have global commodity companies being like, 'Oh, this is another commodity – we want to invest in this, we want to own this,'" - Andrew Myers

Perhaps most fascinating was Andrew's revelation about major energy companies in Texas developing Bitcoin collateral products for power contracts – a practical application that could revolutionize how energy transactions are settled. As energy companies continue embracing Bitcoin for both operations and collateral, we're witnessing the early stages of a profound shift in how critical infrastructure interfaces with sound money. The implications for both sectors could be transformative.

Check out the full podcast here for more on remote viewing, Nikola Tesla's predictions, and the convergence of Bitcoin and AI technology. We cover everything from humanoid robots to the energy demands of next-generation computing.

Headlines of the Day

Steak n Shake to Accept Bitcoin at All Locations May 16 - via X

Facebook Plans Crypto Wallets for 3B Users, Bitcoin Impact Looms - via X

Trump Urges Americans to Buy Stocks for Economic Boom - via X

UK Drops Tariffs, U.S. Farmers Set to Reap Major Benefits - via X

---

Looking for the perfect video to push the smartest person you know from zero to one on bitcoin? Bitcoin, Not Crypto is a three-part master class from Parker Lewis and Dhruv Bansal that cuts through the noise—covering why 21 million was the key technical simplification that made bitcoin possible, why blockchains don’t create decentralization, and why everything else will be built on bitcoin.

Sign Up

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 145,630 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

Happy belated Mother's Day to all the moms out there.

---

Get this newsletter sent to your inbox daily: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/

Subscribe to our YouTube channels and follow us on Nostr and X:

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Marty's Bent

Last week we covered the bombshell developments in the Samourai Wallet case. For those who didn't read that, last Monday the world was made aware of the fact that the SDNY was explicitly told by FinCEN that the federal regulator did not believe that Samourai Wallet was a money services business six months before arresting the co-founders of Samourai Wallet for conspiracy to launder money and illegally operating a money services business. This was an obvious overstep by the SDNY that many believed would be quickly alleviated, especially considering the fact that the Trump administration via the Department of Justice has made it clear that they do not intend to rule via prosecution.

It seems that this is not the case as the SDNY responded to a letter sent from the defense to dismiss the case by stating that they fully plan to move forward. Stating that they only sought the recommendations of FinCEN employees and did not believe that those employees' comments were indicative of FinCEN's overall views on this particular case. It's a pretty egregious abuse of power by the SDNY. I'm not sure if the particular lawyers and judges within the Southern District of New York are very passionate about preventing the use of self-custody bitcoin and products that enable bitcoiners to transact privately, or if they're simply participating in a broader meta war with the Trump administration - who has made it clear to federal judges across the country that last Fall's election will have consequences, mainly that the Executive Branch will try to effectuate the policies that President Trump campaigned on by any legal means necessary - and Samouari Wallet is simply in the middle of that meta war.

However, one thing is pretty clear to me, this is an egregious overstep of power. The interpretation of that law, as has been laid out and confirmed by FinCEN over the last decade, is pretty clear; you cannot be a money services business if you do not control the funds that people are sending to each other, which is definitely the case with Samourai Wallet. People downloaded Samourai Wallet, spun up their own private-public key pairs and initiated transactions themselves. Samourai never custodied funds or initiated transactions on behalf of their users. This is very cut and dry. Straight to the point. It should be something that anyone with more than two brain cells is able to discern pretty quickly.

It is imperative that anybody in the industry who cares about being able to hold bitcoin in self-custody, to mine bitcoin, and to send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion makes some noise around this case. None of the current administration's attempts to foster innovation around bitcoin in the United States will matter if the wrong precedent is set in this case. If the SDNY is successful in prosecuting Samourai Wallet, it will mean that anybody holding Bitcoin in self-custody, running a bitcoin fold node or mining bitcoin will have to KYC all of their users and counterparts lest they be labeled a money services business that is breaking laws stemming from the Bank Secrecy Act. This will effectively make building a self-custody bitcoin wallet, running a node, or mining bitcoin in tillegal in the United States. The ability to comply with the rules that would be unleashed if this Samourai case goes the wrong way, are such that it will effectively destroy the industry overnight.

It is yet to be seen whether or not the Department of Justice will step in to publicly flog the SDNY and force them to stop pursuing this case. This is the only likely way that the case will go away at this point, so it is very important that bitcoiners who care about being able to self-custody bitcoin, mine bitcoin, or send bitcoin in a peer-to-peer fashion in the United States make it clear to the current administration and any local politicians that this is an issue that you care deeply about. If we are too complacent, there is a chance that the SDNY could completely annihilate the bitcoin industry in America despite of all of the positive momentum we're seeing from all angles at the moment.

Make some noise!

Bitcoin Adoption by Power Companies: The Next Frontier

In my recent conversation with Andrew Myers from Satoshi Energy, he shared their ambitious mission to "enable every electric power company to use bitcoin by block 1,050,000" – roughly three years from now. This strategic imperative isn't just about creating new Bitcoin users; it's about sovereignty. Andrew emphasized that getting Bitcoin into the hands of energy companies who value self-sovereignty creates a more balanced future economic landscape. The excitement was palpable as he described how several energy companies are already moving beyond simply selling power to Bitcoin miners and are beginning to invest in mining operations themselves.

"You have global commodity companies being like, 'Oh, this is another commodity – we want to invest in this, we want to own this,'" - Andrew Myers

Perhaps most fascinating was Andrew's revelation about major energy companies in Texas developing Bitcoin collateral products for power contracts – a practical application that could revolutionize how energy transactions are settled. As energy companies continue embracing Bitcoin for both operations and collateral, we're witnessing the early stages of a profound shift in how critical infrastructure interfaces with sound money. The implications for both sectors could be transformative.

Check out the full podcast here for more on remote viewing, Nikola Tesla's predictions, and the convergence of Bitcoin and AI technology. We cover everything from humanoid robots to the energy demands of next-generation computing.

Headlines of the Day

Steak n Shake to Accept Bitcoin at All Locations May 16 - via X

Facebook Plans Crypto Wallets for 3B Users, Bitcoin Impact Looms - via X

Trump Urges Americans to Buy Stocks for Economic Boom - via X

UK Drops Tariffs, U.S. Farmers Set to Reap Major Benefits - via X

---

Looking for the perfect video to push the smartest person you know from zero to one on bitcoin? Bitcoin, Not Crypto is a three-part master class from Parker Lewis and Dhruv Bansal that cuts through the noise—covering why 21 million was the key technical simplification that made bitcoin possible, why blockchains don’t create decentralization, and why everything else will be built on bitcoin.

Sign Up

Ten31, the largest bitcoin-focused investor, has deployed 145,630 sats | $150.00M across 30+ companies through three funds. I am a Managing Partner at Ten31 and am very proud of the work we are doing. Learn more at ten31.vc/invest.

---

Final thought...

Happy belated Mother's Day to all the moms out there.

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In much of the world, it is incredibly difficult to access U.S. dollars. Local currencies are often poorly managed and riddled with corruption. Billions of people demand a more reliable alternative. While the dollar has its own issues of corruption and mismanagement, it is widely regarded as superior to the fiat currencies it competes with globally. As a result, Tether has found massive success providing low cost, low friction access to dollars. Tether claims 400 million total users, is on track to add 200 million more this year, processes 8.1 million transactions daily, and facilitates $29 billion in daily transfers. Furthermore, their estimates suggest nearly 40% of users rely on it as a savings tool rather than just a transactional currency.

Tether’s rise has made the company a financial juggernaut. Last year alone, Tether raked in over $13 billion in profit, with a lean team of less than 100 employees. Their business model is elegantly simple: hold U.S. Treasuries and collect the interest. With over $113 billion in Treasuries, Tether has turned a straightforward concept into a profit machine.

Tether’s success has resulted in many competitors eager to claim a piece of the pie. This has triggered a massive venture capital grift cycle in USD tokens, with countless projects vying to dethrone Tether. Due to Tether’s entrenched network effect, these challengers face an uphill battle with little realistic chance of success. Most educated participants in the space likely recognize this reality but seem content to perpetuate the grift, hoping to cash out by dumping their equity positions on unsuspecting buyers before they realize the reality of the situation.

Historically, Tether’s greatest vulnerability has been U.S. government intervention. For over a decade, the company operated offshore with few allies in the U.S. establishment, making it a major target for regulatory action. That dynamic has shifted recently and Tether has seized the opportunity. By actively courting U.S. government support, Tether has fortified their position. This strategic move will likely cement their status as the dominant USD token for years to come.

While undeniably a great tool for the millions of users that rely on it, Tether is not without flaws. As a centralized, trusted third party, it holds the power to freeze or seize funds at its discretion. Corporate mismanagement or deliberate malpractice could also lead to massive losses at scale. In their goal of mitigating regulatory risk, Tether has deepened ties with law enforcement, mirroring some of the concerns of potential central bank digital currencies. In practice, Tether operates as a corporate CBDC alternative, collaborating with authorities to surveil and seize funds. The company proudly touts partnerships with leading surveillance firms and its own data reveals cooperation in over 1,000 law enforcement cases, with more than $2.5 billion in funds frozen.

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The global demand for Tether is undeniable and the company’s profitability reflects its unrivaled success. Tether is owned and operated by bitcoiners and will likely continue to push forward strategic goals that help the movement as a whole. Recent efforts to mitigate the threat of U.S. government enforcement will likely solidify their network effect and stifle meaningful adoption of rival USD tokens or CBDCs. Yet, for all their achievements, Tether is simply a worse form of money than bitcoin. Tether requires trust in a centralized entity, while bitcoin can be saved or spent without permission. Furthermore, Tether is tied to the value of the US Dollar which is designed to lose purchasing power over time, while bitcoin, as a truly scarce asset, is designed to increase in purchasing power with adoption. As people awaken to the risks of Tether’s control, and the benefits bitcoin provides, bitcoin adoption will likely surpass it.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Here’s a revised timeline of macro-level events from The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver, reimagined in a world where Bitcoin is adopted as a widely accepted form of money, altering the original narrative’s assumptions about currency collapse and economic control. In Shriver’s original story, the failure of Bitcoin is assumed amid the dominance of the bancor and the dollar’s collapse. Here, Bitcoin’s success reshapes the economic and societal trajectory, decentralizing power and challenging state-driven outcomes.

Part One: 2029–2032

• 2029 (Early Year)\ The United States faces economic strain as the dollar weakens against global shifts. However, Bitcoin, having gained traction emerges as a viable alternative. Unlike the original timeline, the bancor—a supranational currency backed by a coalition of nations—struggles to gain footing as Bitcoin’s decentralized adoption grows among individuals and businesses worldwide, undermining both the dollar and the bancor.

• 2029 (Mid-Year: The Great Renunciation)\ Treasury bonds lose value, and the government bans Bitcoin, labeling it a threat to sovereignty (mirroring the original bancor ban). However, a Bitcoin ban proves unenforceable—its decentralized nature thwarts confiscation efforts, unlike gold in the original story. Hyperinflation hits the dollar as the U.S. prints money, but Bitcoin’s fixed supply shields adopters from currency devaluation, creating a dual-economy split: dollar users suffer, while Bitcoin users thrive.

• 2029 (Late Year)\ Dollar-based inflation soars, emptying stores of goods priced in fiat currency. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transactions flourish in underground and online markets, stabilizing trade for those plugged into the bitcoin ecosystem. Traditional supply chains falter, but peer-to-peer Bitcoin networks enable local and international exchange, reducing scarcity for early adopters. The government’s gold confiscation fails to bolster the dollar, as Bitcoin’s rise renders gold less relevant.

• 2030–2031\ Crime spikes in dollar-dependent urban areas, but Bitcoin-friendly regions see less chaos, as digital wallets and smart contracts facilitate secure trade. The U.S. government doubles down on surveillance to crack down on bitcoin use. A cultural divide deepens: centralized authority weakens in Bitcoin-adopting communities, while dollar zones descend into lawlessness.

• 2032\ By this point, Bitcoin is de facto legal tender in parts of the U.S. and globally, especially in tech-savvy or libertarian-leaning regions. The federal government’s grip slips as tax collection in dollars plummets—Bitcoin’s traceability is low, and citizens evade fiat-based levies. Rural and urban Bitcoin hubs emerge, while the dollar economy remains fractured.

Time Jump: 2032–2047

• Over 15 years, Bitcoin solidifies as a global reserve currency, eroding centralized control. The U.S. government adapts, grudgingly integrating bitcoin into policy, though regional autonomy grows as Bitcoin empowers local economies.

Part Two: 2047

• 2047 (Early Year)\ The U.S. is a hybrid state: Bitcoin is legal tender alongside a diminished dollar. Taxes are lower, collected in BTC, reducing federal overreach. Bitcoin’s adoption has decentralized power nationwide. The bancor has faded, unable to compete with Bitcoin’s grassroots momentum.

• 2047 (Mid-Year)\ Travel and trade flow freely in Bitcoin zones, with no restrictive checkpoints. The dollar economy lingers in poorer areas, marked by decay, but Bitcoin’s dominance lifts overall prosperity, as its deflationary nature incentivizes saving and investment over consumption. Global supply chains rebound, powered by bitcoin enabled efficiency.

• 2047 (Late Year)\ The U.S. is a patchwork of semi-autonomous zones, united by Bitcoin’s universal acceptance rather than federal control. Resource scarcity persists due to past disruptions, but economic stability is higher than in Shriver’s original dystopia—Bitcoin’s success prevents the authoritarian slide, fostering a freer, if imperfect, society.

Key Differences

• Currency Dynamics: Bitcoin’s triumph prevents the bancor’s dominance and mitigates hyperinflation’s worst effects, offering a lifeline outside state control.
• Government Power: Centralized authority weakens as Bitcoin evades bans and taxation, shifting power to individuals and communities.
• Societal Outcome: Instead of a surveillance state, 2047 sees a decentralized, bitcoin driven world—less oppressive, though still stratified between Bitcoin haves and have-nots.

This reimagining assumes Bitcoin overcomes Shriver’s implied skepticism to become a robust, adopted currency by 2029, fundamentally altering the novel’s bleak trajectory.

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April already and we are still refugees from the madness in HK. During March I had quite a few family matters that took priority and I also needed to work for two weeks. April is a similar schedule but we flew to Madeira for a change of scene and so that I could have a full 2-weeks off - my first real holiday in quite a few years!

We are staying in an airBnB in Funchal - an experience that I can totally recommend - video below! Nice to have an apartment that is fully equipped in a central location and no hassle for a few weeks. While here we are making the most of the great location and all the local possibiliites.

Elsewhere in the world

Things are clearly not going great around the world. If you are still confused as to why these things are happening, do go back and read the previous Letter from HK section "Why? How did we get here?"

You should be in no doubt that the "Great Reset" with its supporting "Great Narrative" is in full swing.. This is it - it is not a drill. For additional insights the following are recommended.

• Jeff Booth discusses clearly and unemotionally with Pomp - Inflation is theft from humanity by the world governments

• James' summary of Day 2 of the Miami conference - Peter Thiel (wow) and a fantastic explainer from Saifedean on the costs of the current corrupt financial system

• James' summary of Day 3 of the Miami conference - listen in particular to the words of wisdom from Michael Saylor and Lyn Alden

• Layered Money - The corruption of the system will blow your mind once you understand it…

• This is BIG: Strike Is Bringing Freedom To Retail Merchants

• Mark summarises Ray's book: Things will go faster and slower than you want!

• Thoughtful words from George - evil is at work - be in no doubt..

• Wow - My mind is blown. Must listen to John Carvalho - what clear ambition and answers to every question!

• Related to the John Carvalho discussion. Likely these two options will end up complementing each other

On the personal and inspirational side

Advantage of time off work is that I have more time to read, listen and watch things that interest me. It really is a privilege that so much high quality material is so readily available. Do not let it go to waste. A few fabulous finds (and some re-finds) from this past week:

• Ali Abdaal's bookshelf review just blew my mind! For the full list of books with links see the text under his video. So many inspirations and his delivery is perfect.

• Gotta recommend Ali's 21 Life Lessons. I have been following him since he was student in Cambridge five years ago - his personal and professional growth and what he achieves (now with his team) is truely staggering.

• Also his 15 books to read in 2022 - especially this one!

• I also keep going back to Steve Jobs giving the 2005 Stanford Commencement address Three stories from his life - listen and be inspired - especially story #3

You will know that I am a fan of Audio Books and also Kindle - recently I am starting to use Whispersync where you get the Kindle- and Audio-books together for a nice price. This makes it easier to take notes (using Mac or iPad Kindle reader) while getting the benefit of having the book read to you by a professional reader.

I have also been inspired by a few people pushing themselves to do more reading - like this girl and Ali himself with his tips. Above all: just do it and do not get stuck on something that does not work for you!

Books that I am reading - Audio and Kindle!

• The Final Empire: Mistborn, Book 1 - this is a new genre for me - I rather feel that it might be a bit too complicated for my engineering mind - let's see

• Die with Zero: Getting All You Can from Your Money and Your Life - certainly provocative and obvious if you think about it but 99% do the opposite!

• Chariots of the Gods - a classic by Erich von Daniken (written in 1968) - I have been inspired by his recent YT video appearances. Thought provoking and leads you to many possibilities.

So what's it like in Funchal, Madeira?

Do check out HitTheRoadMadeira's walking tour around Funchal

My first impressions of Funchal 

and see my day out on Thursday!

Saturday - Funchal and Camar de Lobos

That's it!

No one can be told what The Matrix is.\ You have to see it for yourself.**

Do share this newsletter with any of your friends and family who might be interested.

You can also email me at: LetterFrom@rogerprice.me

💡Enjoy the newsletters in your own language : Dutch, French, German, Serbian, Chinese Traditional & Simplified, Thai and Burmese.

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I'm sure some of you are already tired of the discussion around the H-1B visa program that was started on Christmas Eve by Vivek Ramaswamy and escalated by Elon Musk and others as the "Silicon Valley MAGA" coalition began putting forth legal immigration policy proposals for the incoming Trump administration. Core to their policy is the expansion of the H-1B visa program so that America can "recruit the best talent in the world" to come build the American economy.

Unfortunately, as it stands today - according to the Silicon Valley cognescenti, Americans are either a.) not smart enough to fulfill the roles necessary to enable the United States to maintain its lead as economic super power of the world or b.) expect too much in compensation for the available roles. At least this is my reading from the commentary I've seen over the last week.

What seems abundantly clear to me is that the framing put forth by "Silicon Valley MAGA" crew is disingenuous and self-serving. It has been clear for awhile now that the H-1B visa program is being systematically abused to bring in cheap labor from other countries to help drive down labor costs for companies across the spectrum. Not just Silicon Valley tech companies. The system has a loophole in it and it is being exploited. Bring people to the US via H-1B visas to complete work for you at lower costs and your company's financials are likely to be better off (assuming the work being done is productive and a value add to the company). Now, this isn't to say that everyone who is in the US via an H-1B visa is here because these companies want to exploit the loophole that gives them the ability to spend less on head count. However, based off the data from the database of the H-1B visa program it is abundantly clear that the system is being taken advantage of. Egregiously and at the expense of American workers, who are most certainly not (all) "subtarded".

Herein lies the crux of the problem; companies are abusing this program to get away from the problem of Americans demanding higher wages to maintain lives of dignity in a country run by a government that is chronically addicted to debt backed by a central bank that will print money ex-nihilo and at will to monetize that debt. Americans are then being scapegoated as either "lazy", "stupid" or "delusional about their worth in the work force". A classic straw man argument that avoids the root issue at hand; the money is broken and the broken money has created perverse incentives throughout the economy while also stripping Americans of the ability to properly save the value of their labor.

We live in a high velocity trash economy that rewards grift and waste while disincentivizing hard work that is meaningful to the quality of life of the Common Man. Everything has been hyper-financialized to the point that one of the only ways to make it ahead is to speculate on the flow of capital into certain asset classes, which is often determined by the whims of central planners. Another is to build or speculate on tech "innovations" that typically materialize in the form of attention zapping apps and widgets that help people temporarily forget they live in a high-velocity trash economy.

The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation and it is because they don't see a way out of the nihilistic rat race created (unknowingly to most) by the money printer.

The ability to print money out of nothing and throw it at everything creates misaligned incentives that result in the inability for the market to properly determine what is genuinely needed by the people instead of those who have learned how to game the broken system and its broken incentives.

One last point, I would be remiss not to acknowledge that many individuals in America aren't intellectually equipped to do some of the cutting edge work that may be necessary to produce the technologies and companies that will push the country forward. The high-velocity trash economy run on money printed out of nothing has completely corrupted the education system. People in the United States are literally dumber than they were five decades ago. That is a fact. But it is not only the fault of the American people themselves, but the corrupt system they have been born into that destroyed the education system with perverse incentives. And the overwhelming majority of the blame is on the system, not the people.

Even with that being said, the idea that we need to adopt a Tiger Mom mentality in the US - a culture of unrelenting devotion to studying STEM to the point that weekend sleepovers for kids are discouraged - is absolutely laughable and objectively un-American. There are plenty of incredibly intelligent, creative and driven young Americans who have contributed and will continue to contribute significantly to the American economy and they didn't need to shackle themselves to their desks to get that way. America isn't a country that was built by automatons. It's a country built by people who said, "Fuck you. Don't tell me what I can and cannot do. Watch this."

Despite the fact that a system has been erected that actively works against the average American system the American spirit lives on in the souls of many across the country. Miraculously. The American spirit is something that cannot simply be imported. It is ingrained in our culture. It is certainly beginning to dwindle as hope for a better future becomes more and more dim for the masses as the system works against them despite all their best efforts to succeed. It is imperative that we stoke the coals of the American spirit while it is still alive in those who are too stubborn to give up.

People need the ability to save their hard work in a money that cannot be debased. Opportunity cost needs to be reintroduced into the market so that things that actually add value and increase the quality of life for the Common Man are where hard money is allocated. And people need to start talking about the root of the problem more seriously instead of striking at branches with disingenuous straw man arguments.

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Final thought... Ready to go surfing.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

There was a bit of a rally in stock markets today, but this was a relief rally after taking a beating throughout the week. All eyes were on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as he took the stage on Wednesday to announce the decisions made at the most recent FOMC meeting.

The market reacted negatively to another 0.25% cut from the Federal Reserve that many considered a "hawkish cut" due to the fact that Chairman Powell articulated that it is likely that there will be less rate cuts in 2025 than were previously expected. This is likely driven by the fact that inflation, as reported by the terribly inaccurate CPI, has been coming in higher than expectations. Signaling that the Fed does not, in fact, have inflation under control. Who could have seen that coming?

Here's how the US 10Y Treasury yield reacted to the announcement:

"Not great Bob!" The US 10Y Treasury yield is something that everyone should be paying attention to over the course of the next year. Since the Fed started cutting rates in September of this year, the 10Y yield has been acting anomalously compared to how it has acted historically after Fed interest rate decisions. Since September, the market has been calling the Fed's bluff on inflation and rates have been moving in the opposite direction compared to what would be expected if the Fed had things under control. The "hawkish cut" made on Wednesday is not a great sign. The Fed is being forced to recognize that it cut "too much too fast" before actually getting inflation under control.

One has to wonder why they made such aggressive moves in September. Why the need for a much more dovish stance as quickly as they moved? Do they see something behind the scenes of the banking system that makes them believe that another liquidity crisis was on the horizon and they needed to act to prevent yet another banking crisis? Now that it is clear that inflation isn't under control and if there really was a liquidity crisis on the horizon, what are the first two quarters of 2025 going to look like? Could we find ourselves in a situation where inflation is beginning to accelerate again, there is a liquidity crisis, and the Fed is forced to rush back ZIRP and QE only to further exacerbate inflation? Couple this potential scenario with the proposed economic policy from the incoming Trump administration and it isn't hard to see that we could be in for a period of economic pain.

One can only hope that the Fed and the incoming administration have the intestinal fortitude to let the market correct appropriately, reprice, clear out the bad assets and credit that exists in the system and let the cleanse happen relatively unperturbed. That has what has been desperately needed since 2008, arguably longer.

On that note, bitcoin is going through a bull market correction this week as well. Likely incited and/or exacerbated by the turmoil in traditional markets.

Many are proclaiming that the end of this bull market is here. Don't listen to those who have been hate tweeting bitcoin all the way up this year. They've been looking for a correction to bask in schadenfreude and confirm their biases. These types of corrections are to be expected when bitcoin runs by checks notes 100% over the course of less than three months. We're approaching the end of the year, which means that people are selling to prepare for taxes (which may be happening in the stock market as well). Add to this fact that long-term holders of bitcoin have taken the most profit they have since 2018 and it probably explains the recent pull back. Can't blame the long-term holders for seeing six-figure bitcoin and deciding to bolster their cash balances.

I couldn't be more bullish on bitcoin than I am right now. The fundamentals surrounding the market couldn't be more perfect. Despite what the Trump administration may have in store for us in terms of economic policy (I agree with most of the policies he has presented), I find it hard to believe that even he and the talented team of people he has surrounded himself with can overcome the momentum of the problems that have been building up in the system for the last 16-years.

The "find safety in sats" trade is going mainstream as the market becomes more familiar with bitcoin, its properties, and the fact that it is very unlikely that it is going to die. The fervor around bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for nation states is only picking up. And if it catches on, we will enter territory for bitcoin that was considered utterly insane only a year ago.

On that note, Nic Carter made some buzz today with a piece he wrote for Bitcoin Magazine explaining why he believes a strategic bitcoin reserve is a bad idea for the US government.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/politics/i-dont-support-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-neither-should-you

While I agree that the signal the US government could send by acquiring a bitcoin strategic reserve could be bad for the US treasuries market, I think it comes down to strategy. The Trump administration will have to think strategically about how they acquire their Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. If they ape in, it could send the wrong message and cause everyone to dump their treasuries, which are the most popular form of collateral in the global financial system. However, there are ways to acquire bitcoin slowly but surely from here into the future that ensure that the United States gets proper exposure to the asset to protect itself from the out-of-control debt problem while also providing itself with a way out of the problem. Many of these potential strategies were discussed in two recent episodes I recorded. One with Matthew Pines from the Bitcoin Policy Institute and another with Matthew Mežinskis from Porkopolis Economics. I highly recommend you all check those out (linked below).

https://youtu.be/xyyeEqFVjBY

https://youtu.be/6vgesP9LIXk

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Final thought...

I am the most locked in from a focus perspective while on flights. Even with two kids under 5. Merry Christmas, Freaks!

@ 472f440f:5669301e

The end of the first part of bitcoin's story has come to an end. Most of the story has yet to be written, but I feel confident in saying that reaching the $100,000 per bitcoin milestone is a clear demarcation between two distinct eras of bitcoin. Yes, we have hit the significant milestones of $1, $10, $100, $1,000, and $10,000 over the last fifteen years and they all felt significant. And they certainly were in their own right. However, hitting the "six figure" milestone feels a bit different.

One bitcoin is currently worth a respectable salary for an American citizen. Ten hunnid bands. Something that is impressive to the layman. This may not mean much to many who have been around bitcoin for some time. The idea of bitcoin hitting $100,000 was seen as a foregone conclusion for millions of people out there. Myself included. This price marker is simply an inevitability on the road to global reserve currency to us.

With that being said, it is important to put yourself in the shoes of those who have doubted bitcoin up to this point. For some reason or another, $100,000 bitcoin has been used as a price target that "will never be hit" for many of the naysayers.

"Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme."

"Tulips."

"Governments will ban it if it hits that point."

"It can't scale."

"It will be 51% attacked."

"No one will trust bitcoin."

"It can't be the world's money."

And yet, despite all of the kvetching from the haters over the years, here we are. Sitting above $100,000. Taking a short rest at the latest checkpoint en route to the peak of the mountain. We hovered right under $100,000 for a couple of weeks. Nominally, where we stand today is much closer to where we were last week compared to where we were six months ago. But for some reason the price tipping over $100,000 has catapulted bitcoin to a new playing field. Where bitcoin stood yesterday and where it found itself six months ago seem miles below where it is today. Crossing over the event horizon of six figures forces people to think of bitcoin in a different light. Almost as if we have entered another dimension.

The last year has been filled with a lead up to this crossing over of the event horizon.

Financial institutions that have derided bitcoin for well over a decade were forced to bend the knee and offer bitcoin exposure to their clients. The mere offering of that exposure has resulted in the most successful ETFs in the history of this particular investment vehicle.

Governments around the world have been forced to reckon with the fact that bitcoin is here to stay and that they need to act accordingly. Thanks to the first mover actions taken by El Salvador and Bhutan, which have nonchalantly decided to go all in on bitcoin, others have taken notice. Will that be publicly acknowledged by the bigger governments? Probably not. But you'd be naive to think that politicians in the US seeing two very small countries making such big bets on bitcoin didn't induce at least a little bit of FOMO. Once the bitcoin FOMO seed is planted it's hard to uproot.

Combine this with the fact that it has become rather cool to be privy to the fact that the world's governments have become egregiously addicted to debt and money printing, that inflation is pervasive and inescapable, and that censorship and Orwellian control tactics are on the rise and it is easy to see why more people are more receptive to the idea of bitcoin.

All that was needed to create an all out frenzy - a slingshot effect up the S Curve of adoption - was a psychological trigger. Bitcoin crossing over six figures.

Well, here we are. The tropes against bitcoin that have been trotted out over the last sixteen years no longer have as much bite as they did in many people's eyes. Sure, there will be some butt hurt nocoiners and totalitarians who continue to trot them out, but crossing the chasm of six figure bitcoin will have an order of magnitude more people thinking, "I hear what you're saying, but reality seems to be saying something completely different. And, if I'm being honest with myself, reality is making much more sense than your screeching."

Unstoppable peer-to-peer digital cash with a hard capped supply has been around since January 3rd, 2009. December 5th, 2024 will be the day that it cemented itself as something that cannot be ignored. Part I of the bitcoin story has been written. The end of the beginning is behind us. On to Part II: the rapid monetization of bitcoin, which will cement it as the reserve currency of the world.

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Final thought... I used some 2017-2020 era tactics to get into the writing mood tonight. 90210

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Uber seed investor and executive producer of the All In podcast Jason Calacanis has been publicly sounding the alarm bell about Microstrategy's bitcoin treasury strategy and the cheer leading exhibited by the company's CEO, Michael Saylor. Calacanis believes that Microstrategy's bitcoin acquisition techniques are a Ponzi scheme waiting to implode. Going as far as to question whether or not Microstrategy is the next FTX.

Earlier today, Jason spent a section of an episode of This Week in Startups to discuss his worries about MSTR's bitcoin treasury strategy, Saylor's overt pumping of the strategy, and the fact that there are other companies like Marathon Holdings beginning to deploy similar convertible debt strategies. While I can see how this can be unnerving for many, I do think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of what Microstrategy is doing. Last week I explained the strategy in a tweet, which I'll reiterate here:

Whether you like it or not, Saylor and Microstrategy have found a way to give pools of liquidity (particularly pools with mandates to allocate to fixed income) exposure to bitcoin’s volatility via convertible notes. The converts are performing better than any other fixed income product on the market.

Other investors have noticed this and have piled into MSTR as well understanding that demand for the converts will increase and enable Microstrategy to accumulate more bitcoin. Those investors feel comfortable with the premium to mNAV MSTR is trading at because they believe the demand for a high performing fixed income product will remain high and likely increase.

Microstrategy can continue doing this until viable competition comes to market because there is no one else offering this type of bitcoin return exposure to fixed income investors at scale. Another important detail, the convertible notes have a duration of 5 years or more while bitcoin’s lowest 4-year CAGR is 26% and its 50th percentile 4-year CAGR is 91%. If you think this will continue then this is a pretty safe bet for Microstrategy and the convertible note holders.

In a world were central banks and governments have gone mad with currency debasement and debt expansion it is pretty safe to assume that bitcoin adoption will not only continue but accelerate from here. What do I think about Microstrategy accumulating this much bitcoin? It makes me a bit uneasy but there’s nothing I can do to stop it and bitcoin will survive in the long run. Even if Microstrategy blows up somehow (I don’t think this is likely). Bitcoin was designed to be anti-fragile.

This is a classic case of “don’t hate the player, hate the game”. Or better yet, join the game. After all, the only winning move is to play.

Essentially, Michael Saylor is taking a long-term bet on bitcoin's continued adoption/monetization and trying to accumulate as much as possible by issuing convertible notes with a 4+ year duration, which should increase the likelihood that Microstrategy is in the black on their bitcoin buys over time as history has shown that anyone who holds bitcoin for more than four years has performed well. This should, in turn, be reflected in their stock price, which should increase alongside bitcoin and convert the debt they've accrued into newly issued shares of MSTR. Through the process, if the strategy is executed successfully, increasing the amount of bitcoin per share for MSTR shareholders. (This is the only metric shareholders should care about in my opinion.)

Yes, this may seem crazy to many and extremely risky to most, but that is the nature of free markets. Every company takes calculated risks in an attempt to increase shareholder value. Michael Saylor and company are betting on the fact that bitcoin will continue to be adopted and are utilizing pools of capital that don't have the ability to buy bitcoin directly, but want exposure to its volatility to achieve their goals. To me it looks like a perfectly symbiotic relationship. Microstrategy is able to accumulate more bitcoin and increase their bitcoin per share while fixed income investors are able to access a product that performs well above their benchmark due to the embedded volatility of the exposure to bitcoin Microstrategy provides.

This won't be a surprise to any of you freaks, but I think it's a pretty smart bet to make. Bitcoin is almost 16-years old. It has established itself as a reserve asset for individuals, companies and countries. A reserve asset that is completely detached from the whims of central planners, transparent, predictable, scarce, and can be transmitted over the Internet. Bitcoin is an idea whose time has come. And more people are beginning to recognize this.

This is one of the beautiful aspects of the public company convertible-note-to-bitcoin strategy that Microstrategy has deployed over the last few years. They are able to harness the benefits of forces that are external to their core business to provide shareholders with value. Michael Saylor could stop buying bitcoin tomorrow and it wouldn't affect bitcoin's adoption in the medium to long-term. He continues to buy bitcoin, and encourages others to do the same, because he recognizes this.

Bitcoin is the apex predator of treasury assets for every individual, company, non-profit or government. The assets competing to be treasury assets are all centrally controlled, easily manipulable, and quickly losing favor. Earlier today, Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller came out and admitted that inflation is kicking the Fed's ass. They cannot tame it.

Waller may posture by saying that "submission is inevitable", but that doesn't make it true. There is simply too much debt and not enough dollars. The annual interest expense on the US Federal debt is now larger than our spending on national defense. The Fed, whether it wants to admit it or not, is going to have to monetize that debt via the debasement of the dollar. If you are using dollars as a treasury asset it is very important that you understand this and react accordingly by adopting a bitcoin strategy. This is what Michael Saylor is trying to make his peers in public markets understand.

Sure, his marketing tactics may seem a bit uncouth to many and the way in which he's expressing his belief through Microstrategy's accumulation strategy may seem risky, but it's hard to argue that his core thesis is flawed. Especially when you consider the fact that bitcoin has officially climbed to the strata of being seriously considered as a treasury asset for the most powerful nation state in the world. I listen to the All In podcast quite frequently and genuinely like the show. It is a good way to gain perspective on how Silicon Valley investors view the world. If I were to give Jason any advice it would be to take a step back and to apply one of the most frequently discussed topics of the last on his show, the emergence of AI and the importance of everyone to incorporate AI into their businesses and workflows as quickly as possible before they get left behind. The same mental model applies to the emergence of bitcoin as a dominant reserve asset.

It is imperative that every individual, company and government adopts a bitcoin treasury strategy if they want to be able to succeed moving forward without the inherent resistance that is introduced from storing the fruit of your labor in a money or money-like asset that does not preserve purchasing power over time. Just because Saylor has recognized this, moved aggressively to effectuate his understanding via his company's balance sheet, and vociferously markets the strategy to others doesn't mean he's wrong. As I said in my tweet last week, I personally prefer to hold actual bitcoin. That doesn't mean that Microstrategy and others haven't honed in on something unique and legitimate given their circumstances and access to certain financial tools.

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Final thought... I apologize for the extended hiatus. I hit a hard wall of writer's block over the last month. I think the time away from the keyboard has been good for me and the quality of this rag moving forward.

@ a849beb6:b327e6d2

\ \ It was another historic week for both bitcoin and the Ten31 portfolio, as the world’s oldest, largest, most battle-tested cryptocurrency climbed to new all-time highs each day to close out the week just shy of the $100,000 mark. Along the way, bitcoin continued to accumulate institutional and regulatory wins, including the much-anticipated approval and launch of spot bitcoin ETF options and the appointment of several additional pro-bitcoin Presidential cabinet officials. The timing for this momentum was poetic, as this week marked the second anniversary of the pico-bottom of the 2022 bear market, a level that bitcoin has now hurdled to the tune of more than 6x despite the litany of bitcoin obituaries published at the time. The entirety of 2024 and especially the past month have further cemented our view that bitcoin is rapidly gaining a sense of legitimacy among institutions, fiduciaries, and governments, and we remain optimistic that this trend is set to accelerate even more into 2025.

Several Ten31 portfolio companies made exciting announcements this week that should serve to further entrench bitcoin’s institutional adoption. AnchorWatch, a first of its kind bitcoin insurance provider offering 1:1 coverage with its innovative use of bitcoin’s native properties, announced it has been designated a Lloyd’s of London Coverholder, giving the company unique, blue-chip status as it begins to write bitcoin insurance policies of up to $100 million per policy starting next month. Meanwhile, Battery Finance Founder and CEO Andrew Hohns appeared on CNBC to delve into the launch of Battery’s pioneering private credit strategy which fuses bitcoin and conventional tangible assets in a dual-collateralized structure that offers a compelling risk/return profile to both lenders and borrowers. Both companies are clearing a path for substantially greater bitcoin adoption in massive, untapped pools of capital, and Ten31 is proud to have served as lead investor for AnchorWatch’s Seed round and as exclusive capital partner for Battery.

As the world’s largest investor focused entirely on bitcoin, Ten31 has deployed nearly $150 million across two funds into more than 30 of the most promising and innovative companies in the ecosystem like AnchorWatch and Battery, and we expect 2025 to be the best year yet for both bitcoin and our portfolio. Ten31 will hold a first close for its third fund at the end of this year, and investors in that close will benefit from attractive incentives and a strong initial portfolio. Visit ten31.vc/funds to learn more and get in touch to discuss participating.\ \ Portfolio Company Spotlight 

Primal is a first of its kind application for the Nostr protocol that combines a client, caching service, analytics tools, and more to address several unmet needs in the nascent Nostr ecosystem. Through the combination of its sleek client application and its caching service (built on a completely open source stack), Primal seeks to offer an end-user experience as smooth and easy as that of legacy social media platforms like Twitter and eventually many other applications, unlocking the vast potential of Nostr for the next billion people. Primal also offers an integrated wallet (powered by Strike BLACK) that substantially reduces onboarding and UX frictions for both Nostr and the lightning network while highlighting bitcoin’s unique power as internet-native, open-source money. 

Selected Portfolio News

AnchorWatch announced it has achieved Llody’s Coverholder status, allowing the company to provide unique 1:1 bitcoin insurance offerings starting in December.\ \ Battery Finance Founder and CEO Andrew Hohns appeared on CNBC to delve into the company’s unique bitcoin-backed private credit strategy.

Primal launched version 2.0, a landmark update that adds a feed marketplace, robust advanced search capabilities, premium-tier offerings, and many more new features.

Debifi launched its new iOS app for Apple users seeking non-custodial bitcoin-collateralized loans.

Media

Strike Founder and CEO Jack Mallers joined Bloomberg TV to discuss the strong volumes the company has seen over the past year and the potential for a US bitcoin strategic reserve. 

Primal Founder and CEO Miljan Braticevic joined The Bitcoin Podcast to discuss the rollout of Primal 2.0 and the future of Nostr. 

Ten31 Managing Partner Marty Bent appeared on BlazeTV to discuss recent changes in the regulatory environment for bitcoin. 

Zaprite published a customer testimonial video highlighting the popularity of its offerings across the bitcoin ecosystem. 

Market Updates

Continuing its recent momentum, bitcoin reached another new all-time high this week, clocking in just below $100,000 on Friday. Bitcoin has now reached a market cap of nearly $2 trillion, putting it within 3% of the market caps of Amazon and Google. 

After receiving SEC and CFTC approval over the past month, long-awaited options on spot bitcoin ETFs were fully approved and launched this week. These options should help further expand bitcoin’s institutional liquidity profile, with potentially significant implications for price action over time.

The new derivatives showed strong performance out of the gate, with volumes on options for BlackRock’s IBIT reaching nearly $2 billion on just the first day of trading despite surprisingly tight position limits for the vehicles. 

Meanwhile, the underlying spot bitcoin ETF complex had yet another banner week, pulling in $3.4 billion in net inflows. 

New reports suggested President-elect Donald Trump’s social media company is in advanced talks to acquire crypto trading platform Bakkt, potentially the latest indication of the incoming administration’s stance toward the broader “crypto” ecosystem. 

On the macro front, US housing starts declined M/M again in October on persistently high mortgage rates and weather impacts. The metric remains well below pre-COVID levels. 

Pockets of the US commercial real estate market remain challenged, as the CEO of large Florida developer Related indicated that developers need further rate cuts “badly” to maintain project viability. 

US Manufacturing PMI increased slightly M/M, but has now been in contraction territory (<50) for well over two years.

The latest iteration of the University of Michigan’s popular consumer sentiment survey ticked up following this month’s election results, though so did five-year inflation expectations, which now sit comfortably north of 3%. 

Regulatory Update

After weeks of speculation, the incoming Trump administration appointed hedge fund manager Scott Bessent to head up the US Treasury. Like many of Trump’s cabinet selections so far, Bessent has been a public advocate for bitcoin. 

Trump also appointed Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick – another outspoken bitcoin bull – as Secretary of the Commerce Department. 

Meanwhile, the Trump team is reportedly considering creating a new “crypto czar” role to sit within the administration. While it’s unclear at this point what that role would entail, one report indicated that the administration’s broader “crypto council” is expected to move forward with plans for a strategic bitcoin reserve.

Various government lawyers suggested this week that the Trump administration is likely to be less aggressive in seeking adversarial enforcement actions against bitcoin and “crypto” in general, as regulatory bodies appear poised to shift resources and focus elsewhere. 

Other updates from the regulatory apparatus were also directionally positive for bitcoin, most notably FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg’s confirmation that he plans to resign from his post at the end of President Biden’s term. 

Many critics have alleged Gruenberg was an architect of “Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” which has created banking headwinds for bitcoin companies over the past several years, so a change of leadership at the department is likely yet another positive for the space.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler also officially announced he plans to resign at the start of the new administration. Gensler has been the target of much ire from the broader “crypto” space, though we expect many projects outside bitcoin may continue to struggle with questions around the Howey Test.

Overseas, a Chinese court ruled that it is not illegal for individuals to hold cryptocurrency, even though the country is still ostensibly enforcing a ban on crypto transactions. 

Noteworthy

The incoming CEO of Charles Schwab – which administers over $9 trillion in client assets – suggested the platform is preparing to “get into” spot bitcoin offerings and that he “feels silly” for having waited this long. As this attitude becomes more common among traditional finance players, we continue to believe that the number of acquirers coming to market for bitcoin infrastructure capabilities will far outstrip the number of available high quality assets. 

BlackRock’s 2025 Thematic Outlook notes a “renewed sense of optimism” on bitcoin among the asset manager’s client base due to macro tailwinds and the improving regulatory environment. Elsewhere, BlackRock’s head of digital assets indicated the firm does not view bitcoin as a “risk-on” asset. 

MicroStrategy, which was a sub-$1 billion market cap company less than five years ago, briefly breached a $100 billion equity value this week as it continues to aggressively acquire bitcoin. The company now holds nearly 350,000 bitcoin on its balance sheet. 

Notably, Allianz SE, Germany’s largest insurer, spoke for 25% of MicroStrategy’s latest $3 billion convertible note offering this week, suggesting growing appetite for bitcoin proxy exposure among more restricted pools of capital. 

The ongoing meltdown of fintech middleware provider Synapse has left tens of thousands of customers with nearly 100% deposit haircuts as hundreds of millions in funds remain missing, the latest unfortunate case study in the fragility of much of the US’s legacy banking stack. 

Travel

• BitcoinMENA, Dec 9-10

• Nashville BitDevs, Dec 10

• Austin BitDevs, Dec 19

• Nashville Energy and Mining Summit, Jan 30

@ 472f440f:5669301e

All eyes are, unsurprisingly, on the US Presidential election. Tomorrow is the big day. I don't want to come off as preachy, however it is pretty clear to me that if you are an American citizen who cares about bitcoin and would like to live under an administration that is eager to embrace the industry as opposed to an administration that is actively hostile toward bitcoin there is only one candidate who deserves your vote; Donald J. Trump. I think he's a better candidate for other reasons, but if you've read this rag for long enough you probably already know what those are. Instead of writing a screed about why I am voting for Trump, let's highlight some things outside of the election that you should be paying attention to this week.

First up, there are two Treasury auctions; $42B of 10-Year notes tomorrow and $25B 30-Year bonds on Wednesday.

It will be interesting to see what the demand for these auctions is and how they affect rates. The long end of the yield curve has been pumping since the Fed's rate cut in the middle of September, which is the market signaling that it does not believe inflation has been appropriately tamed. Yields came down today, but as you can see from the charts things are trending in the wrong direction.

As the Treasury issues new debt at higher rates, the interest expense on that debt, naturally, drifts higher. If the long end of the yield curve doesn't come down aggressively over the course of the next year this is going to be a big problem. There are trillions of dollars worth of Treasury debt that needs the be rolled over in the next few years and it would be advantageous for the Treasury if that debt wasn't being rolled over with yields as high as they are. With the amount of debt the country has accrued in recent decades, every incremental dollar of debt that gets issued and/or rolled over at higher interest rates exacerbates the problem. We are approaching the territory of runaway exponentials, as evidenced by this chart. The growth slope gets steeper and steeper

This debt problem is the elephant in the room that needs to be addressed as quickly as possible. The national debt hit $1.2T in early 1983. It then took 26 years to 10x from $1.2T to $12T in late 2009 and has only taken another 15 years to triple from there to $36T or 30x from the arbitrary base I picked out (Q1 1983).

With this in mind, keep an eye out for these auctions tomorrow and Wednesday, where rates end at the end of trading on Wednesday, and whether or not we officially push over $36T. Regardless of who wins the election tomorrow, this is a problem that needs to be confronted. Whether or not it can be solved at all is up for debate. I don't see how what can be done to reel in this runaway train at this point. However, at the very least, we should acknowledge that we're in the realm of exponentials and have people prepare accordingly by accumulating hard assets that cannot be debased (bitcoin).

The other thing to pay attention to is the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the announcement of the results of the meeting on Thursday. Will Jerome and the other Fed board members to keep rates where they are, cut, or raise rates? Raising rates seems to be out of the question despite the fact that many believe it would be the most prudent move considering how the long end of the yield curve reacted to the 50bps cut in September. If they decide to cut rates, by how much will they cut them? Will they slow the pace with a 25bps cut or continue at the 50bps clip established in September?

We'll find toward the end of this week. Don't lose sight of these events while the world is enthralled with the elections in the US.

I don't know about you freaks, but I couldn't feel more fortunate that bitcoin exists at a time like this. Having access to a distributed peer-to-peer digital cash system with a fixed supply during a time of incredible political divisiveness and out-of-control runaway sovereign debt feels like a Godsend.

Stay sane out there.

Final thought...

We're going to win.

@ c9badfea:610f861a

1. Install YTDLnis (it's free and open source)
2. Launch the app and allow notifications and storage access if prompted
3. Go to any supported website or use the YouTube, Instagram, X, or Facebook app
4. Tap Share on the post or website URL and select YTDLnis as the sharing destination
5. Adjust the settings if desired and tap Download
6. You'll be notified when the download finishes
7. Enjoy uninterrupted watching!

ℹ️ This app uses yt-dlp internally and it's also available as a standalone CLI tool

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

This piece is the first in a series that will focus on things I think are a priority if your focus is similar to mine: building a strong family and safeguarding their future.

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Choosing the ideal place to raise a family is one of the most significant decisions you will ever make. For simplicity sake I will break down my thought process into key factors: strong property rights, the ability to grow your own food, access to fresh water, the freedom to own and train with guns, and a dependable community.

A Jurisdiction with Strong Property Rights

Strong property rights are essential and allow you to build on a solid foundation that is less likely to break underneath you. Regions with a history of limited government and clear legal protections for landowners are ideal. Personally I think the US is the single best option globally, but within the US there is a wide difference between which state you choose. Choose carefully and thoughtfully, think long term. Obviously if you are not American this is not a realistic option for you, there are other solid options available especially if your family has mobility. I understand many do not have this capability to easily move, consider that your first priority, making movement and jurisdiction choice possible in the first place.

Abundant Access to Fresh Water

Water is life. I cannot overstate the importance of living somewhere with reliable, clean, and abundant freshwater. Some regions face water scarcity or heavy regulations on usage, so prioritizing a place where water is plentiful and your rights to it are protected is critical. Ideally you should have well access so you are not tied to municipal water supplies. In times of crisis or chaos well water cannot be easily shutoff or disrupted. If you live in an area that is drought prone, you are one drought away from societal chaos. Not enough people appreciate this simple fact.

Grow Your Own Food

A location with fertile soil, a favorable climate, and enough space for a small homestead or at the very least a garden is key. In stable times, a small homestead provides good food and important education for your family. In times of chaos your family being able to grow and raise healthy food provides a level of self sufficiency that many others will lack. Look for areas with minimal restrictions, good weather, and a culture that supports local farming.

Guns

The ability to defend your family is fundamental. A location where you can legally and easily own guns is a must. Look for places with a strong gun culture and a political history of protecting those rights. Owning one or two guns is not enough and without proper training they will be a liability rather than a benefit. Get comfortable and proficient. Never stop improving your skills. If the time comes that you must use a gun to defend your family, the skills must be instinct. Practice. Practice. Practice.

A Strong Community You Can Depend On

No one thrives alone. A ride or die community that rallies together in tough times is invaluable. Seek out a place where people know their neighbors, share similar values, and are quick to lend a hand. Lead by example and become a good neighbor, people will naturally respond in kind. Small towns are ideal, if possible, but living outside of a major city can be a solid balance in terms of work opportunities and family security.

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Let me know if you found this helpful. My plan is to break down how I think about these five key subjects in future posts.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Over the last four years bitcoin has, among other things, established itself as an incredible corporate treasury asset that benefits those who adopt it as such. Microstrategy is the shining example of this theme going from a company that was hovering barely above a ~$1B market cap in mid-2020 to a ~$40B market cap company holding more than 1% of the 21,000,000 bitcoin that will ever exist. Microstrategy's success has emboldened a number of other publicly trader companies to follow suit. Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset is well on its way to becoming a standard. If you run a business that doesn't hold bitcoin on its balance sheet you are doing yourself, your customers and your shareholders a disservice.

This is a trend that has its legs under it and will accelerate moving forward. A trend that I believe will emerge this cycle is incorporating bitcoin into real estate markets. Leon Wankum has been beating the drum about this for the last few years and I had the pleasure of sitting down with him this morning to record an episode of TFTC that will be published tomorrow morning. Leon is a real estate developer in Germany and he has made it his mission to educate and warn others in real estate about the demonetization of real estate that is under way due to the fact that bitcoin exists and it provides a far superior alternative.

These are pretty stark numbers. Nothing highlights the superior monetary properties of bitcoin better than looking at a chart of the average price of a home priced in USD v. bitcoin.

Since 2016: +46% in USD -99% in BTC

Since 2020: +34% in USD -70% in BTC

The funny thing is that an overwhelming majority of the individuals who make their living in real estate markets do not understand that this is happening to them. Many think they are doing exceptionally well all things considered. Sure, there may be a bit of a slow down and price retraction due to a couple of years of relatively elevated interest rates, but don't worry! The Fed is lowering rates again and the good times are about to start back up. Nothing could be further from the truth. This trend is going to continue unabated until bitcoin is fully monetized and those is the real estate industry, particularly real estate developers and those who lend capital to developers, should seriously take the time to understand what is happening to them.

Real estate is the largest store of value asset in the world at the moment. The most common number that is thrown around for the total size of the market is $300 TRILLION. $300 TRILLION of wealth being stored in an asset that is illiquid, comes with maintenance costs, taxes, insurance premiums, and susceptible to extreme weather event, among other things. Compared to bitcoin - which is extremely liquid, saleable, divisible and hard to confiscate, real estate is a far superior asset to store your wealth in. This is something that I'm sure is well understood by many of you reading this letter.

What's less understood is the dynamics of the real estate development market over the last few years, which have been severely hindered by elevated interest rates. The higher interest rate environment coupled with the inflationary pressures that forced rates higher in the first place have put developers in a predicament; they have a higher cost of capital to start new projects with raw material prices that are still much higher than they were before the economic lock downs of 2020-2022. This has led to a scenario where it isn't advantageous to start new projects and the projects that broke ground in 2021-2023 are finding that they need to incur more debt to get their developments across the finish line.

Despite the fact that interest rates are on their way back down, it doesn't seem like the economics of these projects are going to materially improve in the short to medium-term as headline inflation begins to creep back up. Couple this with the fact that the jobs market is cratering while real wages struggle to keep up with inflation and many builders are going to find themselves in a situation where they do actually complete a development problem but their cash flow suffers because their customers can't afford the inflated rents that builders will have to charge to get a return on their outlaid capital. Many will be put in a situation where they are forced to be happy with lower rents (cash flow) or sit on the sidelines making no cash flow.

The post-1971 era that brought with it a booming real estate industry is suffering the same fate as the bond market; the generation bull market is over. Real estate prices may go up, but that will be nothing more than a mirage of wealth creation. The unit of account those prices are built on is in dollars, which are being debased at an accelerating rate. Developers, banks and borrowers need to de-risk their real estate exposure and, as Leon points out, bitcoin is the only way to do this in an effective way.

Moving forward developers will have to finance by dual collateralizing their debt with the real estate and bitcoin. In the graphic below Leon illustrates what this type of financing structure will look like. Instead of taking $10m of debt to finance a project and putting it all into materials, construction and marketing, a developer will take out a $10m loan, put $1m in bitcoin and the rest toward the development project. Over the course of the construction of the real estate project, bitcoin will sit in the credit structure and, if held for 4+ years, should increase significantly in value. Saving the builder from risk of default and providing him some optionality in terms of what he can do with the project once it's finished.

In this scenario downside risk is contained - a developer isn't pouring all of the cash into bitcoin at the beginning so the worst case scenario is that bitcoin goes to zero (highly unlikely) and they can eat the small loss and hope to make up with it via cash flows once a project is finished, while upside potential is enormous. Bitcoin is still monetizing and having exposure to the hardest monetary asset the world has ever while it's monetizing has proven to be massively beneficial.

We are still in the early days of bitcoin and this idea will likely seem absolutely insane to most Tradfi investors, but I strongly believe that developers, banks and end consumers who don't leverage this type of bitcoin structured credit will be cooked in the long-run. And those that take advantage of this type of structure first will be considered geniuses in 20 years.

There are many more nuanced benefits to this strategy; holding bitcoin allows landlords and management companies to weather ongoing maintenance costs throughout the years, those who take out mortgages dual collateralized with a house and bitcoin not only protect the equity value of their property but could see their equity values increase significantly more than others using vanilla mortgages, and builders who accumulate bitcoin in their treasuries will be able to use better raw materials when building, which leads to more valuable properties that cash flow for longer.

Again, it's going to take time for these types of structures to become commonplace in the market, but I firmly believe this cycle will be the cycle that these strategies get off the ground. In four to five years they will have a track record and after that it will be considered irresponsible not to finance real estate in this way. The banks will begin to demand it.

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Final thought... Sinus congestion sucks.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

There is something quietly rebellious about stacking sats. In a world obsessed with instant gratification, choosing to patiently accumulate Bitcoin, one sat at a time, feels like a middle finger to the hype machine. But to do it right, you have got to stay humble. Stack too hard with your head in the clouds, and you will trip over your own ego before the next halving even hits.

Small Wins

Stacking sats is not glamorous. Discipline. Stacking every day, week, or month, no matter the price, and letting time do the heavy lifting. Humility lives in that consistency. You are not trying to outsmart the market or prove you are the next "crypto" prophet. Just a regular person, betting on a system you believe in, one humble stack at a time. Folks get rekt chasing the highs. They ape into some shitcoin pump, shout about it online, then go silent when they inevitably get rekt. The ones who last? They stack. Just keep showing up. Consistency. Humility in action. Know the game is long, and you are not bigger than it.

Ego is Volatile

Bitcoin’s swings can mess with your head. One day you are up 20%, feeling like a genius and the next down 30%, questioning everything. Ego will have you panic selling at the bottom or over leveraging the top. Staying humble means patience, a true bitcoin zen. Do not try to "beat” Bitcoin. Ride it. Stack what you can afford, live your life, and let compounding work its magic.

Simplicity

There is a beauty in how stacking sats forces you to rethink value. A sat is worth less than a penny today, but every time you grab a few thousand, you plant a seed. It is not about flaunting wealth but rather building it, quietly, without fanfare. That mindset spills over. Cut out the noise: the overpriced coffee, fancy watches, the status games that drain your wallet. Humility is good for your soul and your stack. I have a buddy who has been stacking since 2015. Never talks about it unless you ask. Lives in a decent place, drives an old truck, and just keeps stacking. He is not chasing clout, he is chasing freedom. That is the vibe: less ego, more sats, all grounded in life.

The Big Picture

Stack those sats. Do it quietly, do it consistently, and do not let the green days puff you up or the red days break you down. Humility is the secret sauce, it keeps you grounded while the world spins wild. In a decade, when you look back and smile, it will not be because you shouted the loudest. It will be because you stayed the course, one sat at a time. \ \ Stay Humble and Stack Sats. 🫡

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

Here’s a revised timeline of macro-level events from The Mandibles: A Family, 2029–2047 by Lionel Shriver, reimagined in a world where Bitcoin is adopted as a widely accepted form of money, altering the original narrative’s assumptions about currency collapse and economic control. In Shriver’s original story, the failure of Bitcoin is assumed amid the dominance of the bancor and the dollar’s collapse. Here, Bitcoin’s success reshapes the economic and societal trajectory, decentralizing power and challenging state-driven outcomes.

Part One: 2029–2032

• 2029 (Early Year)\ The United States faces economic strain as the dollar weakens against global shifts. However, Bitcoin, having gained traction emerges as a viable alternative. Unlike the original timeline, the bancor—a supranational currency backed by a coalition of nations—struggles to gain footing as Bitcoin’s decentralized adoption grows among individuals and businesses worldwide, undermining both the dollar and the bancor.

• 2029 (Mid-Year: The Great Renunciation)\ Treasury bonds lose value, and the government bans Bitcoin, labeling it a threat to sovereignty (mirroring the original bancor ban). However, a Bitcoin ban proves unenforceable—its decentralized nature thwarts confiscation efforts, unlike gold in the original story. Hyperinflation hits the dollar as the U.S. prints money, but Bitcoin’s fixed supply shields adopters from currency devaluation, creating a dual-economy split: dollar users suffer, while Bitcoin users thrive.

• 2029 (Late Year)\ Dollar-based inflation soars, emptying stores of goods priced in fiat currency. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transactions flourish in underground and online markets, stabilizing trade for those plugged into the bitcoin ecosystem. Traditional supply chains falter, but peer-to-peer Bitcoin networks enable local and international exchange, reducing scarcity for early adopters. The government’s gold confiscation fails to bolster the dollar, as Bitcoin’s rise renders gold less relevant.

• 2030–2031\ Crime spikes in dollar-dependent urban areas, but Bitcoin-friendly regions see less chaos, as digital wallets and smart contracts facilitate secure trade. The U.S. government doubles down on surveillance to crack down on bitcoin use. A cultural divide deepens: centralized authority weakens in Bitcoin-adopting communities, while dollar zones descend into lawlessness.

• 2032\ By this point, Bitcoin is de facto legal tender in parts of the U.S. and globally, especially in tech-savvy or libertarian-leaning regions. The federal government’s grip slips as tax collection in dollars plummets—Bitcoin’s traceability is low, and citizens evade fiat-based levies. Rural and urban Bitcoin hubs emerge, while the dollar economy remains fractured.

Time Jump: 2032–2047

• Over 15 years, Bitcoin solidifies as a global reserve currency, eroding centralized control. The U.S. government adapts, grudgingly integrating bitcoin into policy, though regional autonomy grows as Bitcoin empowers local economies.

Part Two: 2047

• 2047 (Early Year)\ The U.S. is a hybrid state: Bitcoin is legal tender alongside a diminished dollar. Taxes are lower, collected in BTC, reducing federal overreach. Bitcoin’s adoption has decentralized power nationwide. The bancor has faded, unable to compete with Bitcoin’s grassroots momentum.

• 2047 (Mid-Year)\ Travel and trade flow freely in Bitcoin zones, with no restrictive checkpoints. The dollar economy lingers in poorer areas, marked by decay, but Bitcoin’s dominance lifts overall prosperity, as its deflationary nature incentivizes saving and investment over consumption. Global supply chains rebound, powered by bitcoin enabled efficiency.

• 2047 (Late Year)\ The U.S. is a patchwork of semi-autonomous zones, united by Bitcoin’s universal acceptance rather than federal control. Resource scarcity persists due to past disruptions, but economic stability is higher than in Shriver’s original dystopia—Bitcoin’s success prevents the authoritarian slide, fostering a freer, if imperfect, society.

Key Differences

• Currency Dynamics: Bitcoin’s triumph prevents the bancor’s dominance and mitigates hyperinflation’s worst effects, offering a lifeline outside state control.
• Government Power: Centralized authority weakens as Bitcoin evades bans and taxation, shifting power to individuals and communities.
• Societal Outcome: Instead of a surveillance state, 2047 sees a decentralized, bitcoin driven world—less oppressive, though still stratified between Bitcoin haves and have-nots.

This reimagining assumes Bitcoin overcomes Shriver’s implied skepticism to become a robust, adopted currency by 2029, fundamentally altering the novel’s bleak trajectory.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

As we sprint toward the 2024 US Presidential election the case for using bitcoin as an asset to store value for the long term has never been stronger. The insanity of the incumbent power structure is being laid bare and it is becoming impossible to ignore the headwinds that the Borg faces moving forward.

Yesterday morning and earlier today it became clear that inflation is rearing its head again. Not ideal for the soft landing Jerome Powell and Yellen are signaling to the markets after the first Fed Funds rate cut in years.

It seems like the yield curve predicted this earlier this week when it inverted after a temporary normalizing period after the Fed's rate cut. Futhermore, it is becoming glaringly obvious that running historically high fiscal deficits while interest rates were at multi-decade highs was a pretty bad idea. As James Lavish points out, the data from the CBO earlier this week shows that the US federal government is running a deficit that is 13% higher than it was last year. This is at a time when real wages are still depressed, inflation is still suffocating American consumers and the private sector job market for American citizens is cratering.

Speaking of the job market, the numbers that came in yesterday were worse than expected: The effect of Hurricane Helene should certainly be taken into consideration when looking at this jobs miss. However, even with the miss we know that these numbers have been under reported for years to make the economy seem healthier than it actually is. Even with Helene's effect taken into consideration this print will likely be revised higher 3-6 months from now.

All of this points to a breaking point. A breaking point for the economy and, more importantly, a breaking point for overall confidence in the US government and its ability to operate with any semblance of fiscal responsibility. The chart that Pierre Rochard shares in the tweet at the top of this letter is the only chart that matters for anyone attempting to gauge where we find ourselves on the path to bitcoin realizing its full potential.

There is $133 TRILLION worth of value sitting in global bond markets. Bitcoin is a far superior asset to store one's wealth in. Bond markets are beholden to the whims of the actors who issue those bonds. In the case of the US Treasury market, the largest bond market in the world, the US government. And as we have pointed out above, the US government is recklessly irresponsible when it comes to issuing debt with a complete inability to pay it back on the long-term. Inflation is up, the jobs market is cratering for the native born Americans who actually pay taxes, and the push toward a multi-polar geopolitical landscape is becoming more pronounced by the day. All of this points to a long-term weakening in demand for US treasuries.

The only way out of this mess is to overtly default on this debt or inflate it away. The latter will most certainly be the route that is taken, which positions bitcoin extremely well as people seek the confines of an asset that cannot be debased because it cannot be controlled by a central authority. The levels of sovereign debt in the world are staggering. Do not let the bitcoin price consolidation of the last six months lull you into a state of complacency. Even the results of the Presidential election won't have a material effect on these dynamics. Though, a Donald Trump presidency would certainly be preferable if you prefer to see relatively sane policy enacted that would provide you with time to find safety in bitcoin. But, in regards to this sovereign debt crisis, that is the only benefit you can hope for; more time to prepare. I'll leave you with some thoughts from Porter Stansberry:

"We are about to see the final destruction of the American experiment. Every economist knows this (see below) is correct; but nobody is going to tell you about it. I’ll summarize in plan English: We are fucked.

1. Debt is growing much faster than GD and interest expense is growing much faster than debt; and the real growth in entitlement spending hasn’t even begun yet.

2. Progressive taxation means nobody will ever vote for less spending + the combined size of government employees and dependents, there’s no way for America’s actual taxpayers (about 20m people) to ever win an election, so the spending won’t stop growing and, ironically, inflation will make demands for more spending to grow.

3. Inflation undermines both economic growth and social cohesion. The purple hair man-women weirdos are only the beginning; what comes next is scapegoating jews, blacks, immigrants and a huge increase in violence/domestic terror.

Get ready America. This election has nothing to do with what’s coming. And neither Trump nor Kamala can stop it.

Our experiment in freedom and self-government died in 1971 (when all restraint on government spending was abandoned with the gold standard.) You can only live at the expense of your neighbor until he runs out of money.

And that day is here."

---

Final thought... I hope my tux still fits for this wedding. Enjoy your weekend, freaks.Use the code "TFTC" for 15% off

@ 57c631a3:07529a8e

The Video: The World's Biggest Toddler

https://connect-test.layer3.press/articles/3f9d28a4-0876-4ee8-bdac-d1a56fa9cd02

@ 472f440f:5669301e

Last night I had the pleasure of sitting down with Caitlin Long, Founder and CEO of Custodia - a fully reserved bank providing banking services to bitcoin companies, to discuss an affidavit written by Elaine Hetrick of Silvergate Bank. Elaine is the Chief Administrative Officer of Silvergate and wrote an affidavit, a sworn testimony subject to perjury, in which she detailed the events that led to Silvergate voluntarily winding down their business and returning deposits to their customers.

This affidavit is a bombshell because it confirms speculation that Silvergate was solvent in early 2023 and wasn't shut down because of bad risk management on behalf of the bank's management team, but instead was forced to shutter its doors because the Biden Administration, with strong influence from Senator Elizabeth Warren, forced Silvergate's hand because they didn't like that they were banking digital asset companies.

For those who are a bit fuzzy on the details of the narratives that were flying around Silvergate at the time, I'll jog your memory. FTX was a customer of Silvergate's at the time their Ponzi scheme unraveled. As FTX was blowing up, everyone and their mother was scrambling to get their money out of Silvergate because they assumed that since one of the bank's largest counterparties was going bust, the bank must be in trouble too. A sane decision. Especially considering the history of systemically non-important financial institutions this century.

Unless you were paying close attention during this time, you were likely under the impression that Silvergate was a typical fractionally reserved bank that was experiencing a run that led to its inevitable demise. The media made it seem this way. The regulators made it seem this way. And one pompous short seller made it seem this way. However, nothing could be further from the truth. Here are the most important parts of the affidavit:

Silvergate had stabilized, was able to make regulatory capital requirements, and had the capability to continue to serve its customers that had kept their deposits with Silvergate Bank.

Despite this, regulators decided to turn the pressure up and essentially gave Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank as well, an ultimatum; drastically change your business models immediately by dropping your digital asset customer base or we'll shut you down. There were no hard numbers described in Elaine's testimony, but rumors are that the regulators wanted Silvergate to quickly shrink their exposure to digital asset-related clients to less than 15% of their capital base. At the time, Silvergate's customer base was made up almost entirely of digital asset companies (99.5% to be exact).

The regulators were asking Silvergate to do something that was quite literally impossible given the circumstances. Faced with an impossible task, on March 8th of 2023 Silvergate decided to voluntarily wind down their operations and return deposits back to their customers.

Let's be very clear here, Silvergate did not lose a single penny of customer deposits due to the run on their bank. Management, understanding the volatile nature of the digital asset markets, designed their risk management and capital allocation strategies in a way that would enable them to return dollars to any customer who requested them. And that's exactly what they did when customers came to request their money. They returned EVERY SINGLE PENNY.

This begs the question, "Why did they essentially force Silvergate to shut down?" They seemed to be running a very responsible operation after all. You'd think the regulators would applaud Silvergate's vigilance in risk management on behalf of their customer base. How many banks would have been able to do the same thing if put in the same situation? Probably not many.

The answer to this question is already well known throughout the industry, but Elaine Hetrick's testimony adds some hard evidence that makes it undeniable; Elizabeth Warren, the SEC, the FDIC and the Federal Reserve have been acting in concert to unconstitutionally and extrajudicially target the bitcoin and broader digital asset industry because they do not believe that it should exist. It is a threat to their power structure. The financial system, as it is designed today, gives those who would like to centrally plan the economy and micromanage the lives of American citizens a ton of power. Bitcoin is a threat to that power and they have to do everything in their power to prevent its proliferation.

The targeting of the industry was also confirmed by the aftermath of the NYDFS and FDIC uncharacteristically taking Signature Bank behind the woodshed in the evening of Sunday, March 20th, 2023, despite the fact that Barney Frank and others at the bank were convinced they could handle withdraws come market open the next day.

Signature Bank was ultimately sold to Flagstar Bank. However, they were forced to spin out their digital asset-related accounts before doing so.

This public signaling and sudden regulatory shift made clear that, at least as of the first quarter of 2023, the Federal Bank Regulatory Agencies would not tolerate banks with significant concentrations of digital asset customers, ultimately preventing Silvergate Bank from continuing its digital asset focused business model.

Pretty damning if you ask me. Also, very frustrating and most definitely illegal.

Elizabeth Warren and her gaggle of hall monitors across alphabet soup agencies and the Federal Reserve have been on one massive, unconstitutional, power trip for the last four years. They've besmirched bitcoin and those of us working hard to ensure that the United States of America leads the way forward as bitcoin adoption continues at every turn. Good people striving to make the world a better place.

No one is a better example of this than Alan Lane, the former CEO of Silvergate Bank. I consider Alan a friend and feel supremely confident when I say that he is one of the nicest and thoughtful people I have met in this industry. A man who followed his passion to bring legitimacy and much needed banking services to an industry that the incumbents refused to touch. And he did bring legitimacy. As I explained earlier, Alan and his team understood the volatile nature of the industry and built their firm in a way that took this volatility into account. Silvergate did not fail, they were forced to shut down by Elizabeth Warren and her acolytes at the regulatory agencies.

What's worse, Warren's vendetta against bitcoin and the digital asset industry incited the largest banking crisis this country had seen since 2008. Silvergate and Signature being taken behind the woodshed put everyone on their toes and bank runs started across the country. This led to the failure of First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and a couple of smaller banks, forced the Fed to step in with their emergency BTFP program, and burdened taxpayers with $40B in FDIC costs that needed to be absorbed as a result. If it weren't for the bailouts things would have gotten completely out of control. All because Elizabeth Warren wants to live in a world in which we are forced to use CBDCs and unable to opt-in to bitcoin.

The euthanasia of Silvergate and Signature are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Chokepoint 2.0.

Caitlin Long and Custodia have been in a years long battle with the Federal Reserve to receive a Fed master account so that they can properly serve their customers. For those who are unaware, Custodia is a full-reserve bank that exist to serve bitcoin and digital asset businesses as well as other adjacent businesses like fintechs, banks and funds. Custodia is a chartered bank and special purpose depository institution that has built custody services so that customers can hold bitcoin within their bank accounts alongside their dollar accounts.

Like Silvergate and Signature, Custodia has been singled out and unlawfully denied a master account with the Fed because the Federal Reserve doesn't want a bank like Custodia to exist. Either because they worry about the ramifications of the introduction of a full-reserve bank into a system dominated by fractional-reserve banks or they simply do not want to see bitcoin succeed. If we're being honest, it's probably a combination of the two.

Despite what we, or anyone else, thinks about the potential effect a bank like Custodia could have on the market if it's granted a master account, the Fed's actions are unconstitutional in this case as well. This was made pretty clear (but yet to be determined by a court) in an amicus brief written by Paul Clement on behalf of Custodia earlier this Summer. The Fed is actively undermining the dual-banking system that was set up in this country to enable competition between state chartered banks and the Federal Reserve system.

In the case of Custodia, the Federal Reserve is exhibiting expansive discretionary power that it has never shown before. Custodia is a state chartered special purpose depository institution in the state of Wyoming. Historically, it would be trivial for this type of state chartered bank to get a master account with the Fed. But for whatever reason (we know the reason) the Fed has been denying Custodia their right to this account for a number of years. To the point where Custodia was forced to sue the Federal Reserve and take their case to the courts.

What's interesting about the saga of Custodia and the Fed is that it has forced Custodia's legal team to dig in and highlight where the Fed is overextending its reach and acting arbitrarily. In the amicus brief that was published in July of this year, Paul Clement argues that the way Federal Reserve Bank presidents are chosen is unconstitutional when you take into consideration the fact the these Fed branch presidents are unilaterally undermining state banking laws by denying master accounts.

If they are going to unilaterally undermine state banking laws they need to be appointed by the President or an official acting on behalf of the Executive Branch. Federal Reserve Bank presidents aren't appointed by the President of the United States or any official acting with the authority of the Executive Branch. Instead, they are appointed by their boards, which are controlled by the privately held commercial banks who own them. The Federal Reserve system is clearly acting unconstitutionally when they deny Custodia from being assigned a master account.

The people in power within the federal government and the Federal Reserve system are actively targeting the bitcoin and digital asset industry, acting extrajudicially and making a mockery of the rule of law in the United States. They are completely out of control and it is important that everyone who cares about the future of bitcoin in the United States and the future of the United States more broadly (even if you don't like bitcoin) speaks out and fights against these totalitarians as vehemently as possible. What they are doing is wrong. It's unconstitutional. And it is putting the future of our country at risk.

If the federal government, the regulators and the Federal Reserve do not get out of the way and let law abiding citizens build the businesses they want and associate with businesses they want, those businesses will go elsewhere and the United States will be set back generations as a result.

It's time to put these people in their place and let it be known that freedom will reign supreme in the Land of the Free. Fight!

Final thought... I promised Parker Lewis that I would do cross fit on Friday morning and I'm using today's final thought as an accountability tool.

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Standard Chartered Backs $500K Bitcoin Target, Citing Growing Government Exposure Through MSTR

Sovereign investment in Bitcoin is accelerating—just not always in the most direct way. In a new report, Standard Chartered Bank says indirect exposure via Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is quietly increasing among government entities, reinforcing the bank’s long-standing price prediction that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 before President Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.

JUST IN: Standard Chartered says SEC 13F fillings support #Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028 pic.twitter.com/MURg9bxLka

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) May 20, 2025

“The latest 13F data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supports our core thesis that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office as it attracts a wider range of institutional buyers,” wrote Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research. “As more investors gain access to the asset and as volatility falls, we believe portfolios will migrate towards their optimal level from an underweight starting position in BTC.”

Q1 13F filings revealed a slowdown in direct bitcoin ETF buying—Wisconsin’s state fund exited its entire 3,400 BTC-equivalent IBIT position—while government-linked purchases of MSTR shares were on the rise. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala, for instance, upped its IBIT exposure to 5,000 BTC equivalent, but Kendrick says the bigger story is elsewhere.

“We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” he said.

France and Saudi Arabia took first-time MSTR positions in Q1. Meanwhile, Norway’s Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, and South Korea’s public funds each added exposure equivalent to 700 BTC. U.S. retirement funds in states like California and New York added a combined 1,000 BTC equivalent via MSTR. Kendrick called the trend “very encouraging.”

“The quarterly 13F data is the best test of our thesis that BTC will attract new institutional buyer types as the market matures, helping the price reach our USD 500,000 level,” Kendrick said. “When institutions buy Bitcoin, prices tend to rise.”

SEC DATA BACKS BITCOIN $500K TARGET BY 2028: STANDARD CHARTERED

Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick says recent SEC 13F filings support a possible rise in Bitcoin to $500,000 by end-2028. While direct ETF holdings dipped in Q1, government entities boosted stakes in Strategy…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) May 20, 2025

This isn’t Kendrick’s first bullish call. Last month, he admitted his prior $120K forecast for Q2 2025 was “too low,” citing surging inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs—totaling $5.3 billion over just three weeks. At the time, Kendrick revised his 2025 year-end target to $200,000.

Standard Chartered’s latest analysis shows that Bitcoin’s role in institutional portfolios is maturing beyond tech volatility correlation—now increasingly seen as a macro hedge. “It is now all about flows,” Kendrick said. “And flows are coming in many forms.” 

This post Standard Chartered Backs $500K Bitcoin Target, Citing Growing Government Exposure Through MSTR first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Jenna Montgomery.

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https://www.wsj.com/tech/europe-big-tech-ai-1f3f862c?mod=hp_lead_pos7

https://stacker.news/items/984656

@ 7e538978:a5987ab6

Chain Duel, a fast paced PvP game that takes inspiration from the classic snake game and supercharges it with Bitcoin’s Lightning Network. Imagine battling another player for dominance in a race to collect blocks, where the length of your chain isn’t just a visual cue. It represents real, staked satoshis. The player with the most Proof of Work wins, but it’s not just about gameplay; it’s about the seamless integration of the Lightning Network and real-time payments.

But how does Chain Duel manage these instant transactions with such efficiency? That’s where LNbits comes in. LNbits, an open-source wallet and payment infrastructure, handles all in-game payments making it easy for developers to focus on gameplay while LNbits takes care of everything from microtransactions to automated splits for developers and designers. In this article, we’ll dive deep into how Chain Duel leverages LNbits to streamline in-game payments and how other developers can take advantage of this powerful toolset to build the future of Lightning-powered gaming.

Let’s explore how LNbits transforms payment processing and why it’s quickly becoming a must-have for game developers working in the Bitcoin space.

Overview of Chain Duel

Chain Duel is a unique Lightning Network-inspired game that reimagines the classic snake game with a competitive twist, integrating real-time payments. Two players face off in real-time, racing to "catch" blocks and extend their chains. Each block added to the chain represents Proof of Work, and the player with the most Proof of Work wins the duel. The stakes are high, as the game represents satoshis (small units of Bitcoin) as points, with the winner taking home the prize.

The game is designed to be Lightning-native, meaning all payments within Chain Duel are processed through the Lightning Network. This ensures fast payments, reducing latency and making gameplay smooth. With additional features like practice mode, tournaments and highscores, Chain Duel creates an engaging and competitive environment for Bitcoin enthusiasts and gamers alike.

One of the standout aspects of Chain Duel is its deeper integration with the Lightning Network even at a design level. For example, actual Bitcoin blocks can appear on screen during matches, offering bonus points when mined in sync with the game. The game’s current version, still in beta, has already drawn attention within the Bitcoin community, gaining momentum at conferences and with a growing user base through its social networks. With its innovative combination of gaming, the Lightning Network, and competitive play, Chain Duel offers a glimpse into the future of Lightning-based gaming.

How LNbits is Used in Chain Duel

Seamless Integration with LNbits

At the core of Chain Duel’s efficient payment processing is LNbits, which handles in-game transactions smoothly and reliably. Chain Duel uses the LNbits LNURL-pay and LNURL-withdraw extensions to manage payments and rewards between players. Before each match, players send satoshis using LNURL-pay, which generates a static QR code or link for making the payment. LNURL-pay allows users to attach a note to the payment, which Chain Duel creatively uses as a way to insert the player name in-game. The simplicity of LNURL-pay ensures that users can quickly and easily initiate games, with fresh invoices being issued for every game. When players win, LNURL-withdraw enables them to seamlessly pull their earnings from the game, providing a quick payout system.

These extensions make it easy for players to send and receive Bitcoin with minimal latency, fully leveraging the power of the Lightning Network for fast and low-cost payments. The flexibility of LNbits’ tools means that game developers don’t need to worry about building custom payment systems from scratch—they can rely on LNbits to handle all financial transactions with precision.

Lightning Tournaments

Chain Duel tournaments leverage LNbits and its LNURL extensions to create a seamless and efficient experience for players. In Chain Duel tournaments, LNbits plays a crucial role in managing the overall economics. LNbits facilitates the generation of LNURL QR codes that participants can scan to register quickly or withdraw their winnings. LNbits allows Chain Duel to automatically handle multiple registrations through LNURL-pay, enabling players to participate in the tournament without additional steps. The Lightning Network's speed ensures that these payments occur in real-time, reducing wait times and allowing for a smoother flow in-game.

Splitting Payments

LNbits further simplifies revenue-sharing within Chain Duel. This feature allows the game to automatically split the satoshis sent by players into different shares for the game’s developer, designer, and host. Each time a payment is made to join a match, LNbits is used to automattically pay each of the contributors, according to pre-defined rules. This automated process ensures that everyone involved in the development and running of the game gets their fair share without manual intervention or complex bookkeeping.

Nostr Integration

Chain Duel also integrates with Nostr, a decentralized protocol for social interactions. Players can join games using "Zaps", small tips or micropayments sent over the Lightning Network within the Nostr ecosystem. Through NIP-57, which enables Nostr clients to request Zap invoices, players can use LNURL-pay enabled Zaps to register in P2P matches, further enhancing the Chain Duel experience. By using Zaps as a way to register in-game, Chain Duel automates the process of fetching players' identity, creating a more competitive and social experience. Zaps are public on the Nostr network, further expanding Chain Duel's games social reach and community engagement.

Game and Payment Synchronization

One of the key reasons Chain Duel developers chose LNbits is its powerful API that connects directly with the game’s logic. LNbits allows the game to synchronize payments with gameplay in real-time, providing a seamless experience where payments are an integrated part of the gaming mechanics.

With LNbits managing both the payment process and the Lightning Network’s complex infrastructure, Chain Duel developers are free to concentrate on enhancing the competitive and Lightning Network-related aspects of the game. This division of tasks is essential for streamlining development while still providing an innovative in-game payment experience that is deeply integrated with the Bitcoin network.

LNbits proves to be an indispensable tool for Chain Duel, enabling smooth in-game transactions, real-time revenue sharing, and seamless integration with Nostr. For developers looking to build Lightning-powered games, LNbits offers a powerful suite of tools that handle everything from micropayments to payment distribution—ensuring that the game's focus remains on fun and competition rather than complex payment systems.

LNBits facilitating Education and Adoption

This system contributes to educating users on the power of the Lightning Network. Since Chain Duel directly involve real satoshis and LNURL for registration and rewards, players actively experience how Lightning can facilitate fast, cheap, and permissionless payments. By incorporating LNbits into Chain Duel, the game serves as an educational tool that introduces users to the benefits of the Lightning Network. Players gain direct experience using Lightning wallets and LNURL, helping them understand how these tools work in real-world scenarios. The near-instant nature of these payments showcases the power of Lightning in a practical context, highlighting its potential beyond just gaming. Players are encouraged to set up wallets, explore the Lightning ecosystem, and eventually become familiar with Bitcoin and Lightning technology. By integrating LNbits, Chain Duel transforms in-game payments into a learning opportunity, making Bitcoin and Lightning more approachable for users worldwide.

Tools for Developers

LNbits is a versatile, open-source platform designed to simplify and enhance Bitcoin Lightning Network wallet management. For developers, particularly those working on Lightning-native games like Chain Duel, LNbits offers an invaluable set of tools that allow for seamless integration of Lightning payments without the need to build complex custom solutions from scratch. LNbits is built on a modular and extensible architecture, enabling developers to easily add or create functionality suited to their project’s needs.

Extensible Architecture for Customization

At the core of LNbits is a simple yet powerful wallet system that developers can access across multiple devices. What makes LNbits stand out is its extensible nature—everything beyond the core functionality is implemented as an extension. This modular approach allows users to customize their LNbits installation by enabling or building extensions to suit specific use cases. This flexibility is perfect for developers who want to add Lightning-based services to their games or apps without modifying the core codebase.

• Extensions for Every Use Case
  LNbits comes with a wide array of built-in extensions created by contributors, offering various services that can be plugged into your application. Some popular extensions include:
• Faucets: Distribute small amounts of Bitcoin to users for testing or promotional purposes.
• Paylinks: Create shareable links for instant payments.
• Points-of-sale (PoS): Allow users to set up shareable payment terminals.
• Paywalls: Charge users to access content or services.
• Event tickets: Sell tickets for events directly via Lightning payments.
• Games and services: From dice games to jukeboxes, LNbits offers entertaining and functional tools.

These ready-made solutions can be adapted and used in different gaming scenarios, for example in Chain Duel, where LNURL extensions are used for in game payments. The extensibility ensures developers can focus on building engaging gameplay while LNbits handles payment flows.

Developer-Friendly Customization

LNbits isn't just a plug-and-play platform. Developers can extend its functionality even further by creating their own extensions, giving full control over how the wallet system is integrated into their games or apps. The architecture is designed to make it easy for developers to build on top of the platform, adding custom features for specific requirements.

Flexible Funding Source Management

LNbits also offers flexibility in terms of managing funding sources. Developers can easily connect LNbits to various Lightning Network node implementations, enabling seamless transitions between nodes or even different payment systems. This allows developers to switch underlying funding sources with minimal effort, making LNbits adaptable for games that may need to scale quickly or rely on different payment infrastructures over time.

A Lean Core System for Maximum Efficiency

Thanks to its modular architecture, LNbits maintains a lean core system. This reduces complexity and overhead, allowing developers to implement only the features they need. By avoiding bloated software, LNbits ensures faster transactions and less resource consumption, which is crucial in fast-paced environments like Chain Duel where speed and efficiency are paramount.

LNbits is designed with developers in mind, offering a suite of tools and a flexible infrastructure that makes integrating Bitcoin payments easy. Whether you’re developing games, apps, or any service that requires Lightning Network transactions, LNbits is a powerful, open-source solution that can be adapted to fit your project.

Conclusion

Chain Duel stands at the forefront of Lightning-powered gaming, combining the excitement of competitive PvP with the speed and efficiency of the Lightning Network. With LNbits handling all in-game payments, from microtransactions to automated revenue splits, developers can focus entirely on crafting an engaging gaming experience. LNbits’ powerful API and extensions make it easy to manage real-time payments, removing the complexity of building payment infrastructure from scratch.

LNbits isn’t just a payment tool — it’s a flexible, developer-friendly platform that can be adapted to any gaming model. Whether you're developing a fast-paced PvP game like Chain Duel or any project requiring seamless Lightning Network integration, LNbits provides the ideal solution for handling instant payments with minimal overhead.

For developers interested in pushing the boundaries of Lightning-powered gaming, Chain Duel is a great example of how LNbits can enhance your game, letting you focus on the fun while LNbits manages real-time transactions.

Find out more

Curious about how Lightning Network payments can power your next game? Explore the following:

• Learn more about Chain Duel: Chain Duel
• Learn how LNbits can simplify payment handling in your project: LNbits
• Dive into decentralized communication with Nostr: Nostr

@ 472f440f:5669301e

While most of the world is focused on the lead up to the Presidential election here in the US and louder war drums being beat across the world, the number of bullish developments that are stacking up for bitcoin is increasing rapidly. These developments deserve the OG Marty's Bent smorgasbord treatments, so here are the things that have caught my attention over the last week in no particular order.

The First Ark Transactions on Bitcoin Mainnet

I had the pleasure of participating in a demo of Second's Ark protocol implementation. For those who are unaware, Ark is a new layer-two protocol solution for making off-chain bitcoin payments. Unlike the lightning network, Ark doesn't depend on liquidity channels to facilitate payments. Within the lightning network two counterparties share UTXOs within a channel to move sats back and forth, nodes connect to many different channels to create a network effect that increases the chance of payments getting routed successfully, and node operators manage their channel liquidity as channel imbalances emerge.

Ark is similar in the sense that it also leverages a shared UTXO model. However, instead of having one-to-one channels that come with liquidity management issues, Ark enables a large amount of individuals to share UTXOs, which are managed by an Ark Service Provider (ASP). The ASP is a central party within the protocol, but it is a central party that does not custody UTXOs. It only coordinates the transfer of sats between Ark "rounds". Users have the ability to unilaterally exit the second-layer protocol whenever they deem necessary by broadcasting a Virtual UTXO (vtxo) transaction.

This may seem daunting and complicated. All you need to know is that there is now an new way to make off-chain bitcoin payments that are fast and relatively cheap and it is possible today. As it stands today, Ark has some scaling limitations that can be solved if covenants get merged into the bitcoin protocol, which would significantly reduce the data requirements for signing this type of transaction.

It should also be noted that Ark isn't here to replace the lightning network. It can help serve different use cases and, at the same time, significantly improve the UX of the lightning network. Particularly channel management. The progression of the Ark protocol is a welcomed development. I look forward to following what's going on with Ark as the protocol matures.

The Kingdom of Bhutan is Stacking A LOT of Sats

We were made aware of the fact that the Kingdom of Bhutan, a small country in the Himalayas with a population less than 1,000,000 people, was mining bitcoin in early 2023 when their sovereign wealth fund was doxxed in the bankruptcy proceedings of BlockFi and Celsius. Don't look now, but Bhutan has been doxxed again, this time by the chain surveillance firm Arkham, which is reporting that the nation currently holds more than 13,000 bitcoin, which is nearly 1/3 of its GDP. Driven predominately by its mining operations, which have expanded significantly over the last two years in an attempt to monetize the country's excess hydroelectric power.

While we're not big fans of doxxing here at TFTC, we are fans of the game theory of bitcoin playing out in front of our eyes. And the Kingdom of Bhutan is a shining example of the game theory bitcoiners have been talking about for 15 years playing out perfectly.

Bitcoin is a very thorny topic for individuals at every layer of society. At the individual layer, people have to independently decide that bitcoin is a better money and they have to actively decide to store their wealth in it instead of other assets. For companies, the decision to use bitcoin as the preferred savings vehicle is even harder because most businesses have multiple stakeholders that need to align on a decision before making it. When you move up to the nation state level, the complexity of making the decision to add bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset gets even harder. Many more people and different branches of government need to agree and pass bills (in most cases) before bitcoin can ever make it into a nation's treasury asset mix.

It has long been said within bitcoin circles that individuals who have the ability to think independently, companies that have a lean corporate structure, and nation states with little to lose will be the first movers into bitcoin. And they will benefit massively over the long-run for being early.

If you're an individual reading this who is using bitcoin as their money of choice, you are one of these early movers. Microstrategy under Michael Saylor, who has the ability to make somewhat unilateral decisions due to the company's share structure, is an early move. And, Bhutan, a small nation in the Himalaya mountains with a sovereign wealth fund that seems to have the ability to take risk, is an early mover. With little to lose and greatness to gain, Bhutan is giving other small nation states the playbook for leap frogging the competition in the digital age. Stack a shit ton of bitcoin on the DL, hold on to it for a considerable amount of time, and wake up one day as an economic powerhouse.

The Fed Cuts Rates by 50 Basis Points

I'm sure all of you are well aware at this point. Last week the Federal Reserve made it's first rate cuts in over four years when it cut the fed funds target rate by 0.50% to 4.75-5.00%. With the economy reeling despite what the official government and mainstream narrative may try to make you believe, Jerome Powell and crew have decided it is time to ease up on their monetary policy.

Put another way, inflation is likely to come back with a vengeance as easy money begins to reenter the economy. To be clear, a lower fed funds rate doesn't technically necessitate that newly printed dollars enter the economy like they have over the last 15 years via operations like quantitative easing. However, one has to imagine that the Fed sees some sort of liquidity crisis on the horizon that requires them to begin cutting rates. And not only cutting, but cutting at a pace that was very low probability only a couple of months ago. The consensus in the middle of the Summer was that the Fed would begin lowering rates with a modest 25bps cut this month. They doubled that.

It's probably safe to assume that something is approaching a breaking point on the back end of the financial system. One only has to look at record high credit card debt, record low savings rates, the state of the job market for native born Americans, and the continued turn over of commercial real estate markets to see that not all is well in the American economy. Your Uncle Marty's spidey senses are signaling that a liquidity crunch is likely lurking around the corner. When it does rear its ugly head, you can expect quantitative easing to make a big come back.

When money printer goes brrr, bitcoin goes berserk.

It seems that the Treasury's move over the last 18-months of over-indexing on the front end of the curve during their auctions is already having an expansionary effect on M2 as it has officially entered expansion territory for the first time since 2022. Hold on to your butts, freaks.

Bitcoin's fundamentals are only getting stronger as time goes on. This is evidenced by continued improvement to the protocol stack via second layer protocols, continued adoption by reputable actors like the Kingdom of Bhutan, and the continued mismanagement of the fiat monetary system.

The price of bitcoin has been range bound since the Spring and it has lulled the market into a state of boredom. Enjoy the boring period while it lasts. All signs are pointing to a bitcoin bull run the likes of which the world hasn't seen before. There is a lot of tinder, it is extremely dry, and there are flame throwers on the horizon.

---

Final thought... Nothing makes me happier than meeting someone who gets value from this newsletter or the podcasts in the wild. Love you, freaks.

@ 58537364:705b4b85

Ikigai means "the meaning of life" or "the reason for being." Why were we born? What are we living for? When work is not seen as something separate from life.

The Japanese believe that everyone has their own ikigai. Those who discover it find meaning and value in life, leading to greater happiness, better moods, and a more fulfilling world.

Today, there are many books about ikigai, but the first one written by a Japanese author is:

“The Little Book of Ikigai: The Secret Japanese Way to Live a Happy and Long Life” by Ken Mogi (Thai translation by Wuttichai Krisanaprakankit)

Come explore the true world of ikigai through this Japanese neuroscientist’s insights, conveyed through conversations that challenge the idea of ikigai as something grand—showing instead that it starts with small personal joys.

Ken Mogi says that Jiro Ono, a 94-year-old sushi chef who still makes sushi today, was his inspiration for writing the book.

This sushi chef did not start the job out of passion or talent—but he dedicated every piece of sushi to bring happiness to his customers. That, Ken says, is the essence of ikigai.

Strangely, the word “ikigai” is not often used in daily conversations in Japan.

Because it’s something so natural that it doesn’t need to be said. In today’s world, we often talk about how to succeed, how to get promoted, how to become a CEO. But for the Japanese, success isn’t everything.

For example, many Japanese people are deeply passionate about hobbies or have kodawari. Others might not care what those hobbies are—as long as the person seems happy, that’s enough. Some are obsessed with trains, manga, or anime. These people don’t need fame or recognition from society. If they’re happy in their own way, that’s perfectly okay.

Kodawari means a deep dedication or meticulous attention to something. For example, someone obsessed with stationery might spend a lot of time selecting the perfect pens, notebooks, or pencils. They’ll research, analyze, and experiment to find the tools they love most.

Everyone’s ikigai can be different, because people value different things and live differently.

Ikigai is about diversity. Japanese society encourages children to discover their own ikigai. They don’t tell kids to pursue jobs only because they pay well. If you ask students what jobs they want, they rarely say it’s about money first.

Ikigai is not the same as "success." The Japanese know that life isn’t just about being successful. Ikigai matters more. You could be successful but lack ikigai. Conversely, you might not be “successful” but still have ikigai—and you might be happier.

Ken Mogi defines success as something society acknowledges and rewards. But ikigai comes from your own heart and personal happiness. Others may not recognize it as success, but that doesn’t matter.

Ikigai is personal. We can be happy in our own way. We don’t judge others’ happiness—let them find joy in their own path.

The key to ikigai is finding small moments of happiness, even from little things. For example, when Ken was a child, he loved studying butterflies. Now, when he’s out jogging and sees a beautiful butterfly, he feels ikigai. Or sometimes, it comes from small amusing moments—like hearing a child tell his dad, “Dad, you have to do it this way!”

So, if we want to find our own ikigai, where do we start? Start with noticing small pleasures in daily life. That’s the easiest place to begin.

In the brain, there's a chemical called dopamine. When we achieve even small things, dopamine is released, creating happiness. That’s why enjoying small things is so important.

For some, ikigai might seem hard to grasp—especially if life is difficult, if they feel hopeless or lack self-worth. So begin with tiny moments of joy.

Is it the same as positive thinking? Ikigai is a part of that. But when we talk about “positive thinking,” it can feel like pressure to some people. So instead, just notice small joys: making your morning coffee, running in the rain.

---

Lessons from Ken Mogi:

1. Ikigai is not about chasing success or wealth, but about feeling happiness in your own life, which gives your life personal meaning.

2. Ikigai is not defined by society. Everyone’s ikigai is different. Each person can be happy in their own way.

3. **Don’t judge or force others—**children, partners—to live how you think is right. Respect diversity.

4. Smile at people who are enjoying their ikigai, and support them if they struggle.

5. Ikigai exists on two levels:

6. Big ikigai: life purpose or work values.

7. Small ikigai: tiny joys in everyday life.

8. Ikigai starts with noticing small pleasures today.

---

Source: From the Cloud of Thoughts column An interview by Ajarn Katewadi from Marumura with Ken Mogi, author of the first Japanese book on ikigai.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

As I'm sure many of you are aware already, Israel executed an attack on thousands of Hezbollah members in Lebanon earlier today. At the moment, it looks like Israel successfully waged a supply chain attack on the pagers used by Hezbollah members. Intercepting the devices and placing highly explosive material on the batteries that could be triggered remotely by raising the temperature of the batteries.

To my knowledge, this is the first time an attack of this nature and of this scale has ever been waged. This is a very serious and dangerous precedent that should make anyone reading this think long and hard about the ramifications of the normalization of this type of warfare.

It's not clear to me yet whether this is exactly what happened, but this seems to be where all of the reports are pointing. And when you consider the scale of this operation, it is hard to think of alternative ways that this could have been achieved outside of corrupting the supply chain of this particular pager. Regardless, the die has been cast and remote detonation attacks in crowded civilian areas has been battle tested as an appropriate war tactic.

Not only does this set a terrible precedent for war, but it also begs the question; if they can do something like this with a relatively dumb pager, how much damage could they do with something like an iPhone? How vulnerable are the billions of people who hold smartphones in their pockets, or drive internet connected electric vehicles with lithium ion batteries? How trivial was it for Mossad to gain access to these devices and at what part of the supply chain? Now that this attack has been deemed to be "on the table" how long will it take before others begin to wage similar attacks?

War tactics and their costs are rapidly changing right before our eyes. The war between Russia and Ukraine is showing that low cost drones strapped with bombs can be very effective weapons that can do damage to military equipment worth anywhere between tens of millions to billions of dollars. The Houthi rebels have used cheap drones to completely disrupt the Suez Canal for the better part of a year. The world has only seen the tip of the iceberg in regards to how this type of technology can be used at scale to tip the leverage of power towards those with less financial resources, but a willingness to engage in kinetic conflict. Some of these drones are strapped with thermite flame throwers!

Now that new information has been brought to the market - you can turn pagers and (likely) cellular phones into a network of improvised explosive devices via a software push that increases the temperature of the devices' batteries - it is only a matter of time before others figure out how to do it and begin using these tactics themselves. War machines have never been easier and cheaper to deploy. In a world that is becoming increasingly fractured and angry, this is absolutely frightening. Asymmetric warfare as predicted in the Sovereign Individual is upon us.

As it relates to bitcoin hardware, these attacks highlight that an attack that has been long talked about in the industry but not yet exploited to the best of our knowledge is very real. Supply chain attacks, particularly on bitcoin signing devices that store private key information, have just been proven to be very possible by motivated state actors. If a nation state wanted to somehow "prove" that bitcoin is insecure or figure out a low effort way to do a mass confiscation of bitcoin all they have to do is successfully attack the supply chain of a hardware manufacturer, corrupt the devices, and let them flow to the hands of individuals who believe they are securing their bitcoin in the best way possible. The best way to mitigate this risk is to hold you bitcoin in a multi-sig wallet using a quorum of keys produced by different hardware produced by different manufacturers. Companies like Unchained make this process as seamless and possible and supply chain attacks like the one that was laid bare today highlight why these collaborative custody models are so important. Especially if you are holding a large amount of wealth in bitcoin.

This is a sad day for the world. I'll be praying for peace and sanity to prevail.

Final thought... That was a terrible loss by the Birds.

@ 7e538978:a5987ab6

🧑‍💻🚀 This bounty has now been claimed - Read more here   🧑‍💻🚀🧑‍💻🚀

Bounty Specification: Implement a Nostr Wallet Connect Funding Source for LNbits

Project Overview

This project involves the development of a funding source within LNbits that can use a remote NWC wallet service.

Objective

To create a NWC funding source for LNbits that allows for lightning network operations using a remote Nostr Wallet Connect wallet service. This funding source should implement all funding source functions using NWC as defined in the Void funding source stub - https://github.com/lnbits/lnbits/blob/dev/lnbits/wallets/void.py

Deliverables

1. NWC Funding Source: Robust funding source for LNbits that implements all funding source functions using NIP-47.
2. Documentation: Comprehensive guide including:
3. Installation and configuration processes.
4. Configuration guidelines to connect with various NWC wallet services.
5. Test Suite: Complete set of tests ensuring the functionality works under various scenarios and adheres to the NIP-47 protocol.
6. Demonstration: A working demonstration of LNbits acting as a NWC client, performing transactions using a NWC wallet service.

Requirements

• The extension should be implemented in Python to align with the existing LNbits platform.
• Follow the NIP-47 protocol.
• Integration should support asynchronous operations to handle real-time transaction confirmations.

Budget

• Total Bounty: 750,000 sats
• Payment will be made upon final delivery, after successful testing and documentation review.

Evaluation Criteria

• Adherence to the NIP-47 specifications and LNbits integration requirements.
• Security and efficiency of the implementation.
• Quality of documentation and ease of use.

How to Apply

Get in touch with us in the LNbits Telegram channel

@ 472f440f:5669301e

TAPS SIGN

"There is no industry in the world that is more ruthlessly competitive than the bitcoin mining industry."

From any angle you cut it the bitcoin mining economic landscape is absolutely BRUTAL at the moment. Hashprice is sitting right above an all time low at $0.04/TH/day. Yesterday brought with it yet another new difficulty all time high. Competition for energy resources is as fierce as it has ever been as rack space continues to be tight in the United States and hoards of AI data centers move in to scoop up as much power as possible.

To make matters worse, with current economics it doesn't really make sense to buy bitcoin mining machines at their current prices. The pay back period on machines is absurd considering where we find ourselves in the market. Adam O from Upstream Data broke it down in a tweet earlier today.

As he says, it probably makes more sense to buy used machines than new machines right now if you are looking to make back your money on a reasonable timeline. The only reasons you would buy new hardware right now is if you believe the price is going to rip in the near term (risky bet), you think hashrate is going to come off the network (risky bet), or if you have obscenely low power costs (unlikely for most).

If you have machines plugged in or are thinking about plugging them in soon you better be running firmware that enables you to run your machines more efficiently to increase margins. With current economics, I would make the argument that it is incredibly irresponsible to be running your machines using stock firmware. Especially if you are operating a miner in the public markets or are a private miner backed by investors. It is a disservice to your shareholders. This is a strategy we have been deploying at Cathedra for years now and it has helped us to survive during these trying times in the mining industry and set us up to successfully complete a strategic merger with Kungsleden at an opportune time.

On that note, this is a trend you can expect to pick up over the next six months; mergers and acquisitions. We wrote earlier this year that M&A activity would pick up after the halving began to eat into the economics of mining businesses and that is exactly what is happening. We decided to move early at Cathedra to get ahead of the curve. Since then Cleanspark announced a merger with GRIID, Riot has initiated an attempted hostile takeover of Bitfarms, Bitfarms has entered an agreement to merge with Stronghold, and Terawulf has signaled that they are open to a merger if a particular deal makes sense. On top of this, Rhodium slipped into bankruptcy last month. As margins continue to be squeezed and companies get more desperate I expect this type of consolidation to accelerate.

All signs are pointing toward more pain in the world of mining in the near term. There is nothing outside of a face ripping rally in the price of bitcoin or some unforeseen event that knocks out a material amount of hashrate that will change this reality. Especially considering the fact that Bitmain announced a new hydro model that will produce 860 TH/s at ~13 J/TH! This will be the highest hashing, most energy efficient machine to ever hit the market by a considerable margin.

Once these machines hit the market (if they haven't already via Bitmain plugging them in, which could explain new difficulty all time highs despite terrible mining conditions) every other machine on the market is going to suffer economically.

To make matters worse for everyone struggling right now, savvy energy producers are beginning to understand the benefits bitcoin mining can bring to their operational stack. Japanese energy giant TEPCO is reportedly planning to scale up their mining operations after beginning pilots in late 2022. They want to utilize the excess energy produced by renewable sources to mine bitcoin. From what I can tell, they haven't scaled up significantly yet. However, it is reasonable to believe that they will scale up and other energy producers will take notice. Pushing the industry closer to its inevitable end state; vertical integration via energy producers who have the lowest cost of production.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk. Keep hashing if you can.

Final thought...

The pets need protecting.

@ e5272de9:a16a102f

What is the Grapevine?

The Grapevine enables you and your community to identify who is the most trustworthy, and in what context, to curate content, facts, and information.

In this article we present an overview of the Grapevine Worldview, a visualization tool and control panel for the management of your grapevine.

How does the grapevine work?

The construction of a Grapevine Worldview can be broken down into the following steps:

Step 1. Decide what question you want to answer or the problem you want to solve. For example: curate a directory of nostr apps. The finished product will be a ranked list, G, of items that may be pubkeys or could be something else, e.g. products from an eCommerce site.

Step 2. Select whatever sources of raw data (usually from within nostr, but in theory, could come from outside nostr) that are both 1) available to you and 2) relevant to the question or problem. (See Table: Sources of Raw Data at [1].)

Step 3. Translate each data source into a format suitable for consumption by the grapevine through the process of interpretation (see [1]).

Step 4. Crunch the numbers using the GrapeRank equations. Each purple arrow in the Worldview represents a single iteration. If the arrow loops around in a circle, iterations repeat until convergence. The finished product will be a list G of items, ranked by GrapeRank score.

Step 5: Consume the list G in whatever way you see fit. If the product is a ranked list of pubkeys, it may be used to curate a feed or you may use it as part of the curation process within other Worldviews.

The Worldview is designed to give a big picture overview of the entire above process. In this post I will walk though a simple example of a hypothetical Grapevine Worldview, designed around the problem of how to curate a list of nostr apps.

Example Worldview: Curation of Nostr Apps

The Worldview in the above figure is designed for a specific purpose: to manage a list of nostr apps. [2]

Each node G on the worldview represents a table of items, each of which is associated with a contextual GrapeRank score, calculated using the GrapeRank algorithm. The blue nodes represent tables of pubkeys, and the grey node represents a list of non-pubkey items, in this case the list of nostr apps.

Each edge (purple arrow) is associated with an array R of ratings r, each of which must follow the Grapevine Ratings format. Each R is generated from raw ratings data that can be from any source, in any format. Multiple categories of data can be merged into a single dataset R. For each R, and for each category of raw data that contributes to R, an explicit Interpretation must be provided.

If we look from left to right in the above figure, we can see information processed through the following stages:

Stage 1: Follows and mutes (raw ratings data) is used to curate G_o: a table of pubkeys that are (probably) not bots or other bad actors

Stage 2: NIP-51 lists entitled "Nostr Devs" (raw data) is used to curate G_devs. Note that authors of these lists are filtered and weighted using G_o from the previous stage.

Stage 3: Content authored by G_devs is used to curate G_nostrApps, the list of Nost Apps.

The source of potential items to initialize the list G_nostrApps is unspecified in the worldview, but one possibility would be to make use of Nostr forms, as seen at formstr.

The content used to initialized R_nostrApps used in stage 3 is also left unspecified. One possibility would be to use NIP-32 labels to endorse submitted items as belonging / not belonging on the list. Anyone could submit labels, but only pubkeys represented in G_0 or G_devs will be given a voice, and that voice will be proportional to that pubkey's influence score. The relative thickness of the two purple arrows leading to the G_nostrApps node on the right tells us that nostr developers are given a louder voice in the final curation of G_nostrApps.

Values and choices of the end-user

The Grapevine Worldview places the values and choices of the end user center stage. These choices are manifest in several ways: * the choice of raw data: what is included, what data is available but ignored * the specifics of the interpretation of each category of raw data into a list R of individual ratings r * the overall topology of the Worldview, including the choices of which G's to incorporate * the demonstrated willingness to expend computational energy on any given aspects of the above. For now, the computational energy will be trivial. At some point, the energy expenditure will have a nontrivial cost.

Summary

The Grapevine Worldview is a visual overview and a control panel for the process leading up to the curation of some category of content by your grapevine. Construction of any given worldview includes decisions on who should be trusted to curate what. These decisions may or may not be the same from one end user to another.

Each user can manage multiple Worldviews, each one of which is purposed for the curation of a given G. And the output of one Worldview, G, can be consumed by a different Worldview.

Current efforts are directed at creating an open source library for the GrapeRank equations. Next step will be back end services that partner with relays and will enable generation of G_0, the Grapevine Network of "not-bot" pubkeys. We anticipate that future work will build out the front end control panel for Worldviews, including control panels for the interpretation of additional data sources and curation of lists like nostr apps as in the example above.

Notes

[1] https://njump.me / naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzpef89h53f0fsza2ugwdc3e54nfpun5nxfqclpy79r6w8nxsk5yp0qqxnzdejx5urzwp58qcrgdp4dutxqa

[2] Currently, various lists of nostr apps are maintained, e.g. at Awesome Nostr by (Aljaz Ceru?), or at nostrapps.com by (Karnage?).

@ 7e538978:a5987ab6

🧑‍💻🚀 This bounty has now been claimed - Read more here   🧑‍💻🚀

Bounty Specification: Build a Nostr Wallet Connect Wallet Service Extension for LNbits

Project Overview

This project aims to build a Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) extension for LNbits to allow LNbits to act as a NWC Wallet Service as defined in NIP-47 https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/47.md

LNbits has an example extension that can be used as a starting point on your extension development journey. Watch the extension build tutorial video here

Objective

To develop a fully functional NWC Wallet Service extension that adheres to the NIP-47 protocol specifications, enabling the following capabilities:

• Generation and handling of Nostr Wallet Connect URIs.
• Processing of payment requests including pay_invoice, make_invoice, lookup_invoice, list_transactions, get_balance, multi_pay_invoice, pay_keysend, multi_pay_keysend and get_info
• Creation and lookup of invoices.
• List and balance querying functionalities.
• Secure communication through encrypted events as per NIP04.
• Implementation of error codes
• Implementation of connection rules with control of the following: Maximum payment amount, maximum daily budget, connection expiry date (never expire should be an option) denominated in sats.

Deliverables

1. NWC Wallet Service Extension Code: Clean, commented, and secure codebase that uses the existing LNbits nostrclient.py functionality and an LNbits funding source to provide a NWC Wallet Service.
2. NWC Wallet Service Extension UI: A user interface within the extension that allows a user to connect a new app to the NWC wallet service and edit existing connections. The app connection should allow control of the following rules: Maximum payment amountMaximum daily budgetConnection expiry date (never expire should be an option)
3. Documentation: Documentation covering:
4. Setup and configuration instructions.
5. Usage examples.
6. Test Suite: A comprehensive test suite covering all key functionality

Technology Requirements

• The extension must be developed in Python, consistent with the LNbits platform.
• Use of existing LNbits libraries and adherence to its architectural style is required.
• NIP-47 specification must be adhered to.

Budget

• Total Bounty: 750,000 sats
• Payment will be made upon final delivery, after successful testing and documentation review.

Evaluation Criteria

• Adherence to the NIP-47 specifications and LNbits integration requirements.
• Security and efficiency of the implementation.
• Quality of documentation and ease of use.

How to Apply

Get in touch with us in the LNbits Telegram channel

@ e5272de9:a16a102f

The Grapevine is designed to digest raw data, no matter where you can find it. This is made possible through the process of interpretation.

Interpretation: the process of converting a source of raw data into a format suitable for consumption by the grapevine algorithm

format of Grapevine ratings

The Grapevine is designed to take as input a list of ratings that follow a specialized format, which we will refer to as Grapevine ratings.

Each rating must contain the following 4 to 6 fields: - rater - ratee - score - confidence - context (optional) - rating type (optional)

rater

The author of the rating. Often will be a pubkey or an npub, but could be username, etc.

ratee

The person, place, or thing being rated. This could be a pubkey, an event id or naddr, or a simple string, e.g. the title of a movie.

score

usually a number, but could be a boolean, an item on a list, etc.

confidence

a number between 0 and 1 (i.e. 0 and 100 percent) that represents the confidence of the rater in the score. For example: If Alice rates Bob as highly skilled in some context, and this is based on working with him for many years, she may rate him 9/10 with a confidence of 0.9 (90 percent). On the other hand, suppose she considers him worthy of a 9/10 rating, but this is based on only one brief interaction. In this case, she may rate him 9/10 but with a confidence of 0.05 (5 percent).

context

a string. This may be omitted from the table if every rating in the table or dataset is of the same context (as may often be the case).

rating type

a string that indicates the type of rating: 5 star, true or false, etc. This may be omitted from the table if every rating in the table or dataset is of the same rating type (as may often be the case).

Example interpretation: follows and mutes

A good way to bootstrap a list of nostr users minus the bots, scams, and other bad actors is to make use of the follows and mutes lists, as is done at brainstorm.

The interpretation of a follow is the following Grapevine Rating: - rater: pk_Alice - ratee: pk_Bob - score: 1 - confidence: 0.05

The interpretation of a mute is the following Grapevine Rating: - rater: pk_Alice - ratee: pk_Charlie - score: 0 - confidence: 0.1

Grapevine Ratings Tables

A list of ratings may be referred to as a Grapevine Ratings Table or a Grapevine Ratings Dataset (if in some non-table format, such as an object).

In the below example, the rating type (0 to 5 stars) and context (item quality) columns are the same for each row in the table and so are omitted.

| rater | ratee | score | confidence | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | pk_Alice | item1 | 4 | 0.5 | | pk_Bob | item1 | 5 | 0.9 | | pk_Alice | item2 | 0 | 0.1 |

Sources of Raw Data

| Some Suggested Sources of Raw Data | | --- | | follows, mutes, zaps | | kind 1 and long form notes | | NIP-51 lists | | kind 7 reactions | | NIP-32 labels | | NIP-58 badges | | nostr forms (e.g. see formstr) |

@ bd32f268:22b33966

Recentemente tive conhecimento do mais recente flagelo cuja popularidade espelha bem o estado avançado de degeneração da nossa sociedade, o bebé reborn. Há uns anos certamente não passaria de uma piada de mau gosto quando alguém nos dissesse que decidiu adquirir um boneco para criar como se se tratasse de um filho, infelizmente em 2025 deixou de ser uma piada para se tornar algo assombroso.

Depois de fazer alguma pesquisa sobre o tema percebi que há pessoas que têm em curso processos litigantes judiciais relativos à, note-se com pasmo, guarda da boneca. A insanidade não fica por aqui uma vez que, algumas "mães" procuram atendimento médico para os seus bonecos. No Brasil, a câmara dos deputados recebeu três projetos destinados à criação de políticas públicas relacionadas com estes bonecos. As notícias sobre este fenómeno surreal multiplicam-se à medida que a insanidade se alastra como vírus pelas redes sociais.

Vivemos numa sociedade que há muito se divorciou da realidade, uma sociedade de pós-verdade, por isso de alguma forma não choca que este tipo de coisa possa acontecer. Podemos dizer que de alguma forma existe um primado do sentimento face à razão, preferimos, por vezes com consequências catastróficas, uma mentira "empática" do que uma verdade salvífica. Esta nossa tibieza em afirmar a verdade leva-nos consequentemente a uma crendice insustentável que é esta de, cada um tem a sua verdade. Graças a essa filosofia permitimos que um certo discurso lunático tenha mais alcance no espaço público. Por vezes ingenuamente podemos pensar que se trata de algo inofensivo, sem consequências de maior, contudo a experiência mostra-nos precisamente o contrário. Há por detrás destes fenómenos uma índole corrosiva que funciona como aguilhão para a disseminação das agendas políticas e ideológicas que visam a destruição da família. Considerando a excecional vulnerabilidade psíquica que observamos em cada vez mais pessoas neste tempo e a ampla disseminação destes fenómenos temos razão mais que suficientes para estarmos preocupados.

Uma outra elação que podemos retirar é que a nossa sociedade com as alegadas gerações "mais bem preparadas de sempre" está claramente a produzir um excesso de adultos que se comporta e, a todos os títulos são, crianças funcionais.

Com tudo isto fica cada vez mais difícil viver uma vida harmoniosa com a lei natural, pois vivemos em harmonia com algo considerado opressor pelos apologetas destes produtos do marxismo cultural. Com a pretensa igualdade que se pretende alcançar, equiparando inclusive um boneco a uma bebé, as famílias no sentido próprio do termo ficam em segundo plano relativamente a estes "novos" e esotéricos conceitos de família.

Importa perguntar, no meio de todas essas novas formas de se pensar uma família, qual é o ideal ?

Provavelmente os apologetas destas bizarrices ficarão em silêncio uma vez que coerentemente consideram que todas as formas são iguais e válidas.

Isto é apenas mais um sinal que nos é dado do declínio palpável dos valores que construíram a nossa sociedade e civilização. Façamos algo para que estas nocivas ideologias não entrem no nosso coração e em nossas casas, sob pena da corrupção dos nossos princípios e dos daqueles que nos são queridos. Estes fenómenos são de tal forma doentios que nos levam a crer que vivemos numa época tragicómica, o que me fez lembrar de uma história contada por Kierkgaard e que partilho de seguida.

“Certa vez, houve um incêndio num circo ambulante na Dinamarca. O director mandou imediatamente o palhaço, que já se encontrava vestido e maquilhado a preceito, para a vila mais próxima, à procura de ajuda, advertindo-o de que existia o perigo de o fogo se espalhar pelos campos ceifados e ressequidos, com risco iminente para as casas do próprio povoado. O palhaço correu até à vila e pediu aos moradores que viessem ajudar a apagar o incêndio que estava a destruir o circo. Mas os habitantes viram nos gritos do palhaço apenas um belo truque de publicidade que visaria levá-los a acorrer em grande número às sessões do circo; aplaudiam e desatavam a rir. Diante dessa reacção, o palhaço sentiu mais vontade de chorar do que de rir. Fez de tudo para convencer as pessoas de que não estava a representar, de que não se tratava de um truque e sim de um apelo da maior seriedade: estava realmente em causa um incêndio. Mas a sua insistência só fazia aumentar os risos; eles achavam que a performance estava excelente – até que o fogo alcançou de facto aquela vila. Aí já foi tarde, e o fogo acabou por destruir não só o circo, mas também a povoação”.

Soren Kierkgaard - Filósofo dinamarquês

@ 472f440f:5669301e

I had the pleasure of sitting back down with Will Reeves, Founder and CEO of Fold, on TFTC last week to discuss Fold's journey from a startup to (soon to be) a publicly listed company. I particularly liked this conversation because it was a great lens into the grit it takes to run a successful bitcoin company.

https://fountain.fm/episode/1FrspxmpK5bsoReGx73n

Building a successful company is extremely hard in its own right. Building a successful bitcoin company is significantly harder considering the fact that you're building a company in parallel with a nascent and volatile monetary asset that is monetizing in real time. Bitcoin adoption comes in waves. People flood in when the price is ripping and fade out when the price corrects and goes into a multi-year bear market before the tide comes back in. This means that your potential user base is expanding and contracting more than it would be in other industries. As a company you need to be able to absorb the incoming waves of new adopters and then capture and retain the users who stick around for the bear market.

To do this correctly, a founder and their team needs to thread many needles. First, can you assemble a team that can actually build something? Second, can you bring a product to market that people actually use because it provides value to them? Third, can you stick out against the crowd? So on and so forth. One of the most important aspects of building a bitcoin company during bitcoin's monetization phase is timing. There are many great ideas that people have in terms of companies, products and tools that can built using bitcoin. There are sci-fi futures that can be built today on bitcoin if people really wanted to.

The problem that arises is that adoption and understanding of bitcoin are at a point where, even though a functional product could be brought to market, it won't be adopted by a large number of people because there 1.) aren't enough people who would understand how to use it and 2.) for the people who do understand how to use it and could benefit from it, the universe of people they can interact with using that product is minuscule.

Timing is everything. And I think Fold nailed the timing of their product. Allowing people to passively stack sats by offering a product that enables them to go about their daily spending and get sats back instead of cash back rewards is a great first-touch bitcoin experience. Once Fold found their sticky user base and perfected their sats back experience, they began expanding their product offering to provide their users with more bitcoin services. Buy/sell bitcoin in-app, bill pay for sats back, and more. They'll eventually roll out a credit card and additional financial services. Start simple, provide something of value, nail the timing and then expand from there. That seems to be the recipe.

For any founders in the space reading this, I highly recommend you listen to the episode. Particularly for the advice Will gives about knowing when to sprint on product and when to lean into growth. Bear markets are for building and bull markets are for casting the widest net possible and capturing as many new users as possible.

At Ten31 we are extremely proud to back Fold and a number of other companies in the bitcoin space that understand the intricacies described above. We work with some of the best founders in the world. Founders who know how to eat glass with the best of them. Bitcoin can be a cruel mistress and no one knows that more intimately than the founders building bitcoin companies.

---

Final thought...

The NFL having a week 1 game in Brazil should get Roger Godell fired.

Enjoy your weekend, freaks.

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Auradine Expands Bitcoin Mining Solutions with Advanced ASIC Chips, Cooling Systems, and Modular Megawatt Containers

Auradine Inc., a U.S.-based Bitcoin miner manufacturer, today announced it is unveiling a broadened portfolio of mining products at the Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas, featuring high-performance ASIC chips, specialized cooling systems, and fully integrated modular containers engineered for scalable, megawatt-class mining operations, according to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine.

“Our goal is to democratize access to Bitcoin mining and enable innovative integrations,” said the CEO and Co-Founder of Auradine Rajiv Khemani. “Whether you’re running a megawatt container or building a small form-factor heater-miner for your home, we provide the chips, systems, and support to help you succeed. This new chapter is about giving miners the tools to innovate, scale, and operate efficiently.”

The new ASIC offerings, designed for both industrial and small-scale deployments, support customizable form factors and have already been adopted by operators including MARA Holdings, FutureBit, and Deep South Operating. Alongside the chips, Auradine continues to produce a full range of mining rigs to support a variety of deployment needs.

“Auradine’s ability to deliver both high-performance chips and scalable infrastructure aligns with MARA’s mission to stay at the forefront of bitcoin mining,” stated the Chief Technology Officer of MARA Holdings Ashu Swami. “We have been pleased with the partnership with Auradine with their leading edge engineering capability and innovation.”

Auradine’s modular 1 MW container units, developed in collaboration with Fog Hashing and FBox, are designed to accommodate 100–200 miners each. Merkle Standard, the first to deploy the system, reported improved energy efficiency and operational flexibility.

“We were the first to deploy Auradine’s container solution, and it immediately exceeded our expectations,” said the COO at Merkle Standard Monty Stahl. “The combination of performance, energy efficiency, and modular design gives us the flexibility to scale our operations faster and smarter than traditional infrastructure allows. This is the kind of innovation the mining industry has needed for a long time.”

Their recent $153 million Series C funding supports its push to offer flexible mining infrastructure and supplying ASIC chips for third-party integration. The company also plans to extend its hardware expertise to AI and networking through its AuraLinks initiative.

“We were one of the first to try Auradine’s ASIC chips and were immediately impressed by the support and customization that the team provided,”  added the CEO of Deep South Operating, LLC Brock Tompkins. “It helps miners like us to stay scalable and efficient while raising the standard for what decentralized mining looks like.”

This post Auradine Expands Bitcoin Mining Solutions with Advanced ASIC Chips, Cooling Systems, and Modular Megawatt Containers first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Oscar Zarraga Perez.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

https://x.com/parkeralewis/status/1831746160781938947 Here's a startling chart from an American staple, Walgreens. The convenience store and pharmacy chain has seen its stock price plummet by more than 67% this year and by more than 90% from its all time high, which was reached in 2015.

The combination of the COVID lock downs and the lax laws around theft that followed were materially detrimental to Walgreens business. The crux of their problem at the moment, however, is a double whammy of those disruptions in their business coupled with the "higher for longer" interest rate policy from the Fed over the last couple of years. As Tuur points out in the tweet above, Walgreens has $34B in debt, which means they definitely have significant interest rate payments they need to make on a monthly basis. Tuur also points out that Walgreens has very little cash compared to their debt obligations. Let's take a look at their balance sheet as of May of this year.

Less than $1B in cash for $34B debt with $67.56B in total liabilities. Even worse, their cash balance was drained by more than 27% over the course of the year between May 2023 and May 2024. As you may notice their total assets fell by more than 15% over the same period. This is because Walgreens understands the dire financial straits it finds itself in and has begun shutting down thousands of their locations across the country.

The recent efforts of Walgreens to sell off their assets to raise cash to pay down their debts seem to be completely ineffective as their cash balance is falling faster than their total assets, which is falling 7x faster than their total liabilities. These numbers are most definitely going to get worse as cascading sell pressure in commercial real estate markets (which is the bucket that Walgreens locations fall into) drive down the value of their assets. Leaving them with less cash to pay down their debts as time goes on. To make matters worse, it puts the institutions that lent money to Walgreens in a terrible position. How many commercial and investment banks has Walgreens tapped to fund their operations with expensive debt? How exposed to Walgreens is any individual lender? Could a default on some or all of their loans catch these financial institutions off sides? If it isn't Walgreens that pushes them off sides, how many more bad borrowers would it take to push them off sides?

As our good friend Parker Lewis points out, the only way the hemorrhaging can be stopped is if the Federal Reserve and Federal Government step in with bail outs in the form of massive liquidity injections via quantitative easing and other emergency measures. On top of this, the Fed and the Federal Government find themselves in a classic catch-22. If they let Walgreens fall into bankruptcy it could set off a domino effect that could exacerbate inflation. Riteaid, a similar retail convenience store and pharmacy chain, filed for bankruptcy last October and is still wading its way through that process. Part of that process has been shuttering many of their storefronts. One has to imagine that since Walgreens and Riteaid are having these problems, some of their other competitors must be feeling the pain as well. If enough of these convenience stores, which tens of millions of Americans depend on for everyday goods, find themselves in a position where they have to shut down their stores it could lead to a supply crunch. People will obviously not be able to get their goods from Riteaid or Walgreens and will flee to alternatives, exacerbating the stress on their supplies, which will drive prices higher.

This is a catch-22 because the only way to avoid this mad dash for consumer goods in the midst of a convenience store Armageddon is to re-introduce ZIRP and flood the market with freshly printed dollars, which will drive prices up as well.

Talk about a rock and a hard place. You better get yourself some bitcoin.

---

Final thought... Zach Bryan radio crushes.

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

I’ve written about MSTR twice already, https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr and https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr-part-2, but I want to focus on legendary short seller James Chanos’ current trade wherein he buys bitcoin (via ETF) and shorts MSTR, in essence to “be like Mike” Saylor who sells MSTR shares at the market and uses them to add bitcoin to the company’s balance sheet. After all, if it’s good enough for Saylor, why shouldn’t everyone be doing it — shorting a company whose stock price is more than 2x its bitcoin holdings and using the proceeds to buy the bitcoin itself?

Saylor himself has said selling shares at 2x NAV (net asset value) to buy bitcoin is like selling dollars for two dollars each, and Chanos has apparently decided to get in while the getting (market cap more than 2x net asset value) is good. If the price of bitcoin moons, sending MSTR’s shares up, you are more than hedged in that event, too. At least that’s the theory.

The problem with this bet against MSTR’s mNAV, i.e., you are betting MSTR’s market cap will converge 1:1 toward its NAV in the short and medium term is this trade does not exist in a vacuum. Saylor has described how his ATM’s (at the market) sales of shares are accretive in BTC per share because of this very premium they carry. Yes, we’ll dilute your shares of the company, but because we’re getting you 2x the bitcoin per share, you are getting an ever smaller slice of an ever bigger overall pie, and the pie is growing 2x faster than your slice is reducing. (I https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr how this works in my first post.)

But for this accretion to continue, there must be a constant supply of “greater fools” to pony up for the infinitely printable shares which contain only half their value in underlying bitcoin. Yes, those shares will continue to accrete more BTC per share, but only if there are more fools willing to make this trade in the future. So will there be a constant supply of such “fools” to keep fueling MSTR’s mNAV multiple indefinitely?

Yes, there will be in my opinion because you have to look at the trade from the prospective fools’ perspective. Those “fools” are not trading bitcoin for MSTR, they are trading their dollars, selling other equities to raise them maybe, but in the end it’s a dollars for shares trade. They are not selling bitcoin for them.

You might object that those same dollars could buy bitcoin instead, so they are surely trading the opportunity cost of buying bitcoin for them, but if only 5-10 percent of the market (or less) is buying bitcoin itself, the bucket in which which those “fools” reside is the entire non-bitcoin-buying equity market. (And this is not considering the even larger debt market which Saylor has yet to tap in earnest.)

So for those 90-95 percent who do not and are not presently planning to own bitcoin itself, is buying MSTR a fool’s errand, so to speak? Not remotely. If MSTR shares are infinitely printable ATM, they are still less so than the dollar and other fiat currencies. And MSTR shares are backed 2:1 by bitcoin itself, while the fiat currencies are backed by absolutely nothing. So if you hold dollars or euros, trading them for MSTR shares is an errand more sage than foolish.

That’s why this trade (buying BTC and shorting MSTR) is so dangerous. Not only are there many people who won’t buy BTC buying MSTR, there are many funds and other investment entities who are only able to buy MSTR.

Do you want to get BTC at 1:1 with the 5-10 percent or MSTR backed 2:1 with the 90-95 percent. This is a bit like medical tests that have a 95 percent accuracy rate for an asymptomatic disease that only one percent of the population has. If someone tests positive, it’s more likely to be a false one than an indication he has the disease*. The accuracy rate, even at 19:1, is subservient to the size of the respective populations.

At some point this will no longer be the case, but so long as the understanding of bitcoin is not widespread, so long as the dollar is still the unit of account, the “greater fools” buying MSTR are still miles ahead of the greatest fools buying neither, and the stock price and mNAV should only increase.

. . .

One other thought: it’s more work to play defense than offense because the person on offense knows where he’s going, and the defender can only react to him once he moves. Similarly, Saylor by virtue of being the issuer of the shares knows when more will come online while Chanos and other short sellers are borrowing them to sell in reaction to Saylor’s strategy. At any given moment, Saylor can pause anytime, choosing to issue convertible debt or preferred shares with which to buy more bitcoin, and the shorts will not be given advance notice.

If the price runs, and there is no ATM that week because Saylor has stopped on a dime, so to speak, the shorts will be left having to scramble to change directions and buy the shares back to cover. Their momentum might be in the wrong direction, though, and like Allen Iverson breaking ankles with a crossover, Saylor might trigger a massive short squeeze, rocketing the share price ever higher. That’s why he actually welcomes Chanos et al trying this copycat strategy — it becomes the fuel for outsized gains.

For that reason, news that Chanos is shorting MSTR has not shaken my conviction, though there are other more pertinent https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr-part-2 with MSTR, of which one should be aware. And as always, do your own due diligence before investing in anything.

* To understand this, consider a population of 100,000, with one percent having a disease. That means 1,000 have it, 99,000 do not. If the test is 95 percent accurate, and everyone is tested, 950 of the 1,000 will test positive (true positives), 50 who have it will test negative (false negatives.) Of the positives, 95 percent of 99,000 (94,050) will test negative (true negatives) and five percent (4,950) will test positive (false positives). That means 4,950 out of 5,900 positives (84%) will be false.

@ 7e538978:a5987ab6

LNbits now has full NWC support thanks to the work of contributor @riccardobl, who has claimed two LNbits bounties for implementing Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) support in LNbits.

LNbits can now act both as a wallet service and as a funding source using the Nostr NWC protocol (NIP-47). This opens the door to new integrations with a growing ecosystem of Nostr clients and Lightning wallets.

Two Sides of NWC Integration

The work delivered by Riccardo B comprises two separate peices of work that together implement full support for NWC:

1. LNbits as a Wallet Service

This extension allows LNbits to operate as an always-on wallet service compatible with Nostr Wallet Connect clients such as Damus, Amethyst, or any app supporting NIP-47. Users can connect these Nostr clients to their LNbits instance and create and pay Lightning invoices through it.

This turns your LNbits wallet into a backend Lightning provider for your favourite Nostr app all self-hosted.

2. NWC as a Funding Source

The second piece of work flips the relationship. With this in place, LNbits can now act as an NWC client, meaning it can be funded from any NWC wallet service. This could be another LNbits, Alby, Minibits and more.

Why This Is a Big Deal for LNbits Users

These two bounties make LNbits one of the first applications in the Lightning ecosystem to offer bidirectional NWC support — as both a service and a client. This brings benefits such as:

• Fund any NWC-compatible app using your LNbits wallet.

• Fund LNbits using any wallet that supports Nostr Wallet Connect.

• Build NWC-native apps with LNbits as a backend, or power your own LNbits server using existing wallet infrastructure.

For developers, it’s a chance to build in flexible, interoperable ways. For users, it means more choice, more control, and less friction when managing Lightning payments across apps and devices.

Both of these features were developed and delivered by Riccardo B (@riccardobl), an contributor who took on and completed both LNbits bounties and was extremely helpful during the PR review process. We owe a huge thanks to Riccardo for his work here.

To try them out, read the full article detailing how NWC works with LNbits.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

For the last few months many people in bitcoin, myself included, have been focused on bitcoin's role as a macroeconomic asset. Bitcoin as a strategic reserve for the US government. Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset for corporations. Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge in a world that is trending toward a multi-polar power dynamic. This is where the focus has been. And for good reason. These trends will ultimately have a material effect on the price of bitcoin if they pick up steam.

However, with all of the focus on bitcoin as a strategic asset I think a couple of technical developments and trends have been overlooked. Particularly in the realm of second layer privacy. I'll touch on two of them in this letter; BOLT 12 invoices and the progression of ecash.

Yesterday afternoon the Strike (a company Ten31 is very proud to be backing) team released a blog post that detailed their journey to implementing BOLT 12 offers in their product stack. For those who are unaware of BOLT 12 and why it is important, in short, it is an upgrade to the lightning network that would make receiving bitcoin on the lightning network more private while also significantly improving the user experience. The current standard for invoicing people via the lightning network is BOLT 11, which forces users to create a unique invoice every time they want to receive bitcoin and comes with privacy tradeoffs for the party receiving bitcoin.

BOLT 12 brings with it route blinding which allows a receiver to publish a lightning offer to the network without revealing their node's public key. It also brings with it onion messaging, which allows users of the lightning network to communicate without a dependence on HTTP, which can be censored by a motivated state actor. On top of this, it enables users to create a static invoice that can be paid multiple times by multiple people. Think of a band putting their Venmo or Cash App QR code next to their tip jar on the stage. They'll be able to add a private lightning invoice their audience can pay to now.

https://strike.me/blog/bolt12-offers/

As it stands right now, Strike has only enabled BOLT 12 offers and there is work to do at the protocol layer of lightning and the different implementations of that protocol to get the full benefits of BOLT 12, but this is material progress that gets us closer to a significantly better user experience on the lightning network. If you read Strike's blog post you'll come to appreciate the collaboration between the teams working on these implementations and the companies implementing the protocol that is necessary to get these features live. Shout out to everyone who worked on this. Everyone who uses the lightning network will be better off when BOLT 12 is fully implemented.

Moving on. Earlier today the founder of the BTCPay Server open source project, Nicolas Dorier, published a blog post outlining his thoughts on how ecash has the potential to solve problems that many have tried to solve by launching their own blockchains in the past. The problem with trying to "blockchain the world" is that blockchains are very inefficient and only really work for one application; enabling a peer-to-peer digital cash system with no trusted third parties (i.e., bitcoin). However, the ultimate goals of the thousands of blockchain projects that spun up in bitcoin's wake are desirable. Cheap, private and instant transactions. The ability to trivially spin up private money tokens suited for very particular use cases. Overall great UX that makes it easy for people to realize the benefits of "blockchain technology".

The problem that has existed to date is that you don't need a blockchain for all of these things. In fact, having a blockchain for these things proves to be detrimental to their ultimate goals. Instead, what people really need is a protocol that gives you the granular control, privacy, instantaneous transactions and UX that anchors to bitcoin. This is exactly what Chaumian Mints bring to the bitcoin stack.

This is something that we've been screaming about for more than seven years in this rag. Now with ecash protocols like Cashu and Fedimint maturing, gaining traction and bringing products to market that highlight the power and flexibility of ecash systems, people are beginning to see the promise. It is only a matter of time before more and more people begin to realize this potential.

Another benefit of ecash protocols is the fact that they are siloed from each other. Ecash mints are permissionless; any one person or group of people can spin them up, offer their preferred services and maintain (or fail to maintain) their mints. The failure of one mint is not a systemic risk to other mints. This is very different from token projects that are spun up on blockchains. The last ten years have proven that individual token projects can prove to be systemic problems for individual blockchains (i.e., The DAO token on Ethereum). Being able to silo mints is the only way to ensure that the utility of ecash overall is actually scalable and robust.

Don't get so distracted by the bitcoin macro talk that you miss out on the incredible technical developments happening on top of and adjacent to bitcoin.

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Final thought... Vibes are high.

@ 662f9bff:8960f6b2

Currently, and for the last three weeks, I am in Belfast. With the situation in HK becoming ever more crazy by the day we took the opportunity to escape from Hong Kong for a bit - I escaped with V and 3 suitcases. I also have some family matters that I am giving priority to at this time. We plan to stay a few more weeks in Northern Ireland and then after some time in Belgium we will be visiting some other European locations. I do hope that HK will be a place that we can go back to - we will see...

What's happening?

Quite a few significant events have happened in the last few weeks that deserve some deeper analysis and checking than you will ever get from the media propaganda circus that is running full force at the moment. You should be in no doubt that the "Great Reset" with its supporting "Great Narrative" is in full swing.

In most of the world the C19 story has run its course - for now. Most countries seem to have have "declared victory" and "moved on". Obviously HK is an exception (nothing happened there for the last two years) and I fear they will get to experience the whole 2-year thing in the coming 3-4 months. Watch out - the politicians everywhere are looking to permanently establish the "emergency controls" as "normal" - see previous Letter for some examples in Ireland and EU.

Invasion of Ukraine has led to so many lines being crossed - to the extent that clearly things will never be the same again in our lifetime.

Why? How did we get here?

I do not claim to know all the answers but some things are fairly clear if you look with open eyes and the wisdom that previous generations and civilisations have made available to us - even if most choose to ignore it (Plato on the flaws of democracy). Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it and even those who learn will have litle choice but to go along for much of the ride.

Perhaps my notes and the links below will help you to form an educated opinion rather than the pervasive propaganda we are all being fed.

The current situation is more than 100 years in the making and much (if not most) of what you thought was true is less veracious than you could ever imagine. No doubt we could (and maybe should) go back further but let's start in 1913 when the British Government asked the public no longer to request exchange of their pounds for gold coins at the post office. This led to the issuing of War Bonds and fractional reserve accounting that allowed the Bank of England essentially to print unlimited money to fight in WW1; without this devious action they would have been constrained to act within the limits of the country's reserves and WW1 would have been shorter. Read The Fiat Standard for more details on how this happened. Around this time, and likely no coincidence, the US bankers were scheming how to get around the constitutional controls against such actions in their own country - read more in The Creature from Jekyll Island.

Following WW1, Germany was forced to pay war reparations in Gold (hard money). This led to a decade of money printing and extravagant excesses and crashes as hyperinflation set in, ending in the bankrupting of the country and the nationalism that fed WW2 - the gory details of devaluation and hyperinflation in Weimar Germany are described in When Money Dies. Meanwhile the US bankers who had been preparing since 1913 stepped in with unlimited money printing to fund WW2 and then also in their Marshal Plan to cement in place the Bretton Woods post-war agreement that made US Dollar the global reserve currency.

Decades of boom and bust followed - well explained by Ray Dalio who portrays this as perfectly normal and to be expected - unfortunately it is for soft (non-hard) money based economies. The Fourth Turning will give many additional insights to this period too as well as cycles to watch for and their cause and nature. In 1961 Eisenhower tried to warn the population in his farewell address about the "Military Industrial Complex" and many believe that Robert Kennedy's assassination in 1963 may well be not entirely unrelated.

Things came to a head in August 1971 when the countries of the world realised that the US was (contrary to all promises) printing unlimited funds to (among other things) fight the Vietnam war and so undermining the expected and required convertibility of US dollars (the currency of global trade) for Gold (hard money). A French warship heading to NY to collect France's gold was the straw that caused Nixon to default on US Debt convertibility and "close the gold window".

This in turn led to further decades of increasing financialization, further fuelled (pun intended) by the PetroDollar creation and "exorbitant priviledge" that the US obtained by having the global reserve currency - benefiting those closest to the money supply (Cantillon effect) while hollowing out the US manufacturing and eventually devastating its middle and working classes (Triffin dilemma) - Arthur Hayes describes all this and much more as well as the likely outlook in his article - Energy Canceled. Absolutely required reading or listen to Guy Swan reading it and giving his additional interpetation.

Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse explains how the money system is now being reset following the events of last few weeks and his article outlines a likely way forward - Bretton Woods III. His paper is somewhat dense, heavy reading and you might prefer to listen to Luc Gromen's more conversational explainer with Marty

All of this was well known to our forefathers

The writers of the American Constitution understood the dangers of money being controlled by any elite group and they did their best to include protections in the US constitution. It did take the bankers multiple decades and puppet presidents to circumvent these but do so they did. Thomas Jefferson could not have been more clear in his warning.

" If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around(these banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Islamic finace also recognised the dangers - you will likely be aware of the restrictions that forbid interest payments - read this interesting article from The Guardian

You will likely also be aware from schooldays that the Roman Empire collapsed because it expanded too much and the overhead became unbearable leading to the debasement of its money and inability to extract tax payments to support itself. Read more from Mises Institute. Here too, much of this will likely ring familiar.

So what can you do about it?

In theory Governments should respect Consent of the Governed and the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights states that "The will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government".

For you to decide if and to what extent governments today are acting in line with these principles. If not, what can you do about it?

The options you have are basically - Loyalty, Voice or Exit. 1. You can be loyal and accept what you are told - 2. you may (or may not) be able to voice disagreement and 3. you may (or may not!) be able to exit. Authoritarian governments will make everything except Loyalty difficult or even impossible - if in doubt, read George Orwell 1984 - or look just around at recent events today in many countries.

I'll be happy to delve deeper into this in subsequent letters if there is interest - for now I recommend you to read Sovereign Individual. It is a long read but each chapter starts with a summary and you can read the summaries of each chapter as a first step. Also - I'm happy to discuss with you - just reach out and let me know!

For those who prefer a structured reading list, check References

That's it!

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@ e5272de9:a16a102f

The GrapeRank algorithm, like the PageRank algorithm, takes as input a graph, composed of nodes and edges, and composes "importance" scores for each node based on the topology of the graph. This equation is currently implemented at brainstorm and uses follows and mutes to calculate a trust score G (also called an "influence" score) in the range [0, 1] for each user in your nostr network.

This is the GrapeRank equation:

• G, c, and r in this equation are each scalars in the interval [0, 1]
• G represents the grapevine score (also called the "influence") of v, as seen from the vantage point of o
• r represents the average rating of v by o's grapevine
• c represents the degree of confidence in the average rating r
• the subscript always represents the thing (user, product, etc) being evaluated
• the superscript always represents the "observer," the point of reference from which we view and interpret the world

This is the same equation in expanded format:

• The grapevine score of v on the left, G_v, is weighted using the grapevine score (but of each w) on the right, G_w
• These calculations are iterated until all G values converge
• r^o_v (the right half) is the weighted average
• c^o_v (the left half) is the confidence in that weighted average
• The r^w_v are the ratings being averaged together; they are inferred from follows and mutes by interpreting a follow as a score of 1 (probably not a bot), a mute as a score of 0 (probably a bot)
• The c^w_r are the confidences in the r^w_v; a follow is interpreted to have a confidence of 5 percent, a mute to have a confidence of 10 percent. (These are adjustable settings at brainstorm.)
• The sum over G * c, which appears twice in the above equation, is called the "input" and is an unbounded, nonnegative scalar which represents "the amount of trusted input" that goes into the calculation
• The formula is designed so that as the input (the number of ratings from trusted sources) increases to infinity, the confidence c^o_v approaches 1 (100 percent) asymptotically. This map from input onto confidence, which employs a nonlinear equation, is necessary to ensure that G remains within the [0, 1] interval even as input increases to infinity.
• alpha is a nonnegative scalar value that determines how "quickly" the confidence c^o_v approaches 1 (100 percent) as trusted input increases. Decreasing the value for alpha makes the equation more "rigorous" because it will take more trusted input to achieve any given degree of confidence. (Alpha is another user-adjustable setting at brainstorm.)

To perform the above calculations: 1. For the "seed" user (the observer o, i.e. the logged-in user), fix average, confidence, and G (influence) to unity. These values will not change. 2. For all other users, initialize average, confidence, and influence scores to zero. 3. Iterate through all users to calculate average, confidence, and influence scores. In the first iteration, the follows of the logged-in users will obtain nonzero scores. In the second iteration, their follows will obtain nonzero scores. And so on. 4. Continue iteration until all values converge.

Intuition tells us that convergence is guaranteed by the requirement that for each rating, the rating and its associated confidence are scalar values between 0 and 1. G will therefore also always also be a number between 0 and 1. Not shown: at brainstorm and in general recommended practice, the above equation also employs a scalar value between 0 and 1 called the "attenuation factor," defaulted at 0.8 but adjustable by the user, which causes influence scores G^o_v to diminish as the number of hops between o and v increases.

Intended usage

G is designed to be used as a weight when calculating weighted averages, tallying votes, etc. It is highly effective at eliminating bots without turning into a popularity contest.

Interpretation

G^o_v is a recommendation, to you by your grapevine, that reflects in numerical form how much "attention" you should pay to pubkey v in the given context (if a context is given).

• G^o_v = 0 means that pubkey v is not worthy of your attention, because v is probably a bot
• G^o_v = 1 means that pubkey v is worthy of your full attention, because b is probably not a bot
• Values between 0 and 1 mean the grapevine isn't absolutely certain one way or another, whether because of scant information (some follows by trusted sources, but not many) or conflicting information (combination of follows and mutes)

Note that if a bad actor spins up a large number of bots and uses them to follow himself, those follows will be completely ignored, because those bots will have a zero trust score G.

Change of context

The set of ratings r can be generated from any data source, regardless of format. By selecting different ratings datasets, we can generate grapevine scores to reflect different contexts. Example: collect emoji reactions to content on Topic X and infer a fire emoji as a rating of 2, rocket as a 3, thumb down as a 0, etc. The resulting G, which will take values between 0 and 3, is now interpreted to apply only to Topic X.

Compact notation

The above equation can be written more succinctly:

where G represents the baseline grapevine score, and R represents the dataset generated from follows and mutes.

Note that we can use a different G on the left versus on the right:

The same relationship can be expressed using arrow notation:

The above relationship in arrow notation should be read to mean that the set of scores G_a are calculated using dataset R which has been authored exclusively by members represented by G_b. In other words, the ratings R are weighted using the set of scores G_b.

Note that the dataset R is generated via interpretation of preexisting content. We can use any content that we can find. There is no requirement or expectation that users will necessarily generate ratings in a format convenient for input into the grapevine. The process of "interpretation" takes care of that, by "translating" existing data into a format suitable for use by the grapevine.

Note also that grapevine scores G may refer to anything in any context: trust scores for users, quality scores for products, etc.

Concerns about convergence

If the G_a and G_b represent the same context (G_a = G_b), the relationship is said to be "recursive," and calculations are iterated until they converge.

If G_a != G_b, the relationship is not recursive, and a single iteration through each pubkey is all that is needed. This means that we can allow G_a and / or G_b to be greater than 1 with no need to worry about convergence.

Worldviews

Arrow notation allows us to link trust calculations in chains:

A graph of grapevine scores G_i linked via arrow notation is called a worldview.

For example, consider the following worldview: * G_a is the baseline nostr trust score, as described above, intended to separate bots from real users * G_b is a label applied to nostr users, intended as a label for bitcoiners (as opposed to nocoiners or shitcoiners) * G_c is a quality score applied to hardware wallets

The purpose of the above worldview is so that I can get a ranked list of hardware wallets and I can be reasonably sure that the list is curated by bitcoiners whose instincts on this topic I value more highly than the general population.

Worldviews can contain any desired number of nodes, connected by any desired number of arrows, and so can be as complex as desired.

Obviously, the construction of a worldview reflects the value system of the person who uses it, with the above worldview offered as a reflection of maximalist values and beliefs. Worldviews can be codified and submitted to the wider community. One's grapevine can even be used to select individuals who should be trusted to edit or construct worldviews.

Computational cost

The methods described above are expected to be too time consuming and computationally expensive to do all of them on the fly on the front end. Notably, the ones that are recursive. Non-recursive computations, however, can be done on the front end, provided recursive calculations have been done ahead of time and are readily available. It is anticipated that the value added by well-crafted worldviews will more than justify the requisite costs.

@ 472f440f:5669301e

nostr:note1x82zkl9knpkgk07wlhycex6una0zjscgcafzaq2pfjfq6h3tz8jqr0em9m

A lot of the problems the US is suffering from today stem from the fact that we've been managed by a political class that is economically illiterate for decades.

"Debt is only money we owe ourselves."

"We need to pass this $2 Trillion spending bill to drive down prices."

"We need to phase out reliable energy generation in favor of unreliable renewables."

"Nuclear energy is bad so we can't build anymore reactors."

"We need to bail out the banks that introduced systemic risks into our economy or the world will devolve into chaos."

"We need to lock down the economy and print trillions of dollars to pay people for staying home from work while we flatten the curve."

"A prolonged zero interest rate environment will stoke economic growth with no long-term effects."

"We need to ship all of our manufacturing over seas so that we can flood the world with dollars, make the USD the reserve currency of the world, and lower prices at home. Good middle class jobs be damned."

The list goes on and on.

The ramifications of these compounding economically illiterate policies has left the country, and the world at large, in an extremely vulnerable position. We are sitting on more than $35 TRILLION of debt on the national balance sheet with another $220 TRILLION in off balance sheet liabilities in the form of Social Security, Medicare, Medicade and other handouts the government has promised to make in the future. And, worse yet, many policies, particularly spending bills that pack in new regulations, have indirectly eroded individual freedoms.

The annual military budget increases the war machine and the military industrial complex, which then use the money they've been allocated to lobby for laws like the Patriot Act. Completely obliterating the fourth amendment in an effort to "protect the country from terrorism". I sit here and shudder at the thought of how much money has been wasted on programs like the TSA and the additional lost economic productivity that comes with people idiotically taking off their shoes and standing in a radioactive tube with their hands up while some mouth breather who couldn't guard a Pixie cup from a three year old yells at you. Let alone the potential economic activity and partnerships that are blown up with the bombs we drop using money we don't have.

The mad dash to "nEt ZeRo EmIsSiOnS" also brings along with it inflationary pressures that result in increased economic stress for the Common Man while restricting his freedoms. Nothing makes this clearer than the Orwellian "Inflation Reduction Act" that forced net zero energy transitions policies through a bill. The policies limit the options individual Americans and corporations have when it comes to utilizing the energy sources they deem most economically viable at any given point in time. An over subsidization of wind and solar and a demonization of oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear has introduced economic imbalances that are leading to a capital misallocation of epic proportions. This has, in turn, led to less reliable energy systems and overall higher energy costs.

And now the incumbent administration, now headed by Kamala Harris, is pushing for an unrealized capital gains tax that is sure to scare tens of billions of dollars worth of capital outside of the borders of the US. We touched on it when it was originally being floated last week. However, at the time it seemed like the campaign was floating a litmus test to gauge how it would be received if it became an official policy. Today it became clear that this will be an official policy if Harris gets into office and garners the necessary votes to push it through.

What's worse is the fact that one of her lead economic advisors, Bharat Rama, joined CNBC this morning to not only confirm that this is the official policy stance of the Harris campaign, but to say that people should be okay with this because they already pay an "unrealized gain tax" in the form of property taxes. Not only is it not true that property taxes are technically not unrealized gain taxes, but it's also horrible framing. Property taxes are one of the most reviled taxes that people have to pay after income taxes. No one likes paying property taxes. Especially when they look at the laughable public schooling system that they fund.

Doubling down on failed policy seems to be the modus operandi of Kamala Harris and the Marxists on her team. An unrealized gains tax is nothing more than asset confiscation by a corrupt government that has completely lost control of its finances. It will destroy the wealth of the nation. "But it will only affect people who have more than $100M. Stop talking about this, it won't affect you at all! You poor rich wannabe."

People who have attained hundreds of millions of dollars have done so because they are smart. (Most of them at least.) And they worked extremely hard to build businesses to acquire their wealth. If you think they are stupid enough to stand by and let the government swoop in and confiscate that wealth, I have a bitcoin privacy fork to sell you. They will move their money out of the country on November 6th and the Harris administration will be forced to begin lowering the threshold of who has to pay unrealized gains taxes.

$50m

$25m

$10m

$1m

$100k

They will not stop doubling down on their incompetence. These people should be laughed out of polite society and marooned on an island for floating policy as potentially dangerous to the US economy as this unrealized tax is.

This is why we bitcoin. Bitcoin gives people the ability to store their wealth in an asset that is extremely hard to confiscate if secured properly. Bitcoin gives you leverage from which to fight back against this type of overt Marxism.

---

Final thought... It is abnormally humid on my village by the sea for a late August day.

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

I https://www.chrisliss.com/p/mstr a few months ago with the subtitle “The Only Stock,” and I’m starting to regret it. Now, it was trading at 396 on January 20 when I posted it and 404 now (even if it dipped 40 percent to 230 or so in between), but that’s not why I regret it. I pointed out it was not investable unless you’re willing to stomach large drawdowns, and anyone who bought then could exit with a small profit now had they not panic-sold along the way.

The reason I regret it is I don’t want to make public stock predictions because it adds stress to my life. I have not sold any of my shares yet, but something I’ve noticed recently has got me thinking about it, and stock tips are like a game of telephone wherein whoever is last in the chain might find out the wrong information and too late. And while every adult has agency and is responsible for his own financial decisions, I don’t want my readers losing money on account of anything I write.

My base case is still that MSTR becomes a trillion-dollar company, destroys the performance of the S&P, the Mag-7 and virtually any other equity portfolio most people would assemble. Michael Saylor is trading an infinitely-printable asset (his shares) for humanity’s best-ever, finite-supply digital gold, and that trade should be profitable for him and his shareholders in perpetuity.

I don’t know exactly what he plans to do when that trade is no longer available to him — either because no one takes fiat currency for bitcoin anymore or because his mNAV (market-cap-to-bitcoin-holding ratio) goes below one — but that’s not my main concern, either. At that point he’ll have so much bitcoin, he’ll probably become the world’s first and largest bitcoin bank and profit by making his pristine collateral available to individuals and institutions. Even at five percent interest, half a trillion in bitcoin would yield $25B in profits every year. Even at a modest 10x valuation, the stock would more than double from here.

I am also not overly concerned with Saylor’s present amount of convertible debt which is at low or zero rates and is only https://www.strategy.com/. He’s been conservative on that front and only issuing on favorable terms. I don’t doubt Saylor’s prescience, intelligence or business sense one bit.

What got me thinking were some Twitter posts by a former Salomon Brothers trader/prophet Josh Mandell https://x.com/JoshMandell6/status/1921597739458339193 recently. In November when bitcoin was mooning after the election, he predicted that on March 14th it would close at $84,000, and if it did it would then go on an epic run up to $444,000 this cycle.

A lot of people make predictions, a few of them come true, but rarely do they come true on the dot (it closed at exactly $84K according to some exchanges) and on such a specific timeframe. Now, maybe he just got lucky, or maybe he is a skilled trader who made one good prediction, but the reason he gave for his prediction, insofar as he gave one, was not some technical chart or quantitative analysis, but a memory he had from 30 years ago that got into his mind that he couldn’t shake. He didn’t get much more specific than that, other than that he was tuned into something that if he explained fully would make too many people think he had gone insane. And then the prediction came true on the dot months later.

Now I believe in the paranormal more than the average person. I do not think things are random, and insofar as they appear that way it’s only because we have incomplete information — even a coin toss is predictable if you knew the exact force and spin that was put on the coin. I think for whatever reason, this guy is plugged into something, and while I would never invest a substantial amount of money on that belief — not only are earnestly-made prophecies often delusions or even if correct wrongly interpreted — that he sold makes me think.

He gave more substantive reasons for selling than prophecy, by the way — he seems to think Saylor’s perpetual issuance of shares ATM (at the market) to buy more bitcoin is putting too much downward pressure on the stock. Obviously, selling shares — even if to buy the world’s most pristine collateral at a 2x-plus mNAV — reduces the short-term appreciation of those shares.

His thesis seems to be that Saylor is doing this even if he would be better off letting the price appreciate more, attracting more investors, squeezing more shorts, etc because he needs to improve his credit rating to tap into the convertible debt market to the extent he has promised ($42 billion more over the next few years) at favorable terms. But in doing this, he is souring common stock investors because they are not seeing the near-term appreciation they should on their holdings.

Now this is a trivial concern if over the long haul MSTR does what it has the last couple years which is to outperform by a wide margin not only every large cap stock and the S&P but bitcoin itself. And the bigger his stack of bitcoin, the more his stock should appreciate as bitcoin goes up. But markets do not operate linearly and rationally. Should he sour prospective buyers to a great enough extent, should he attract shorts (and supply them with available shares to borrow) to a great enough extent, perhaps there might be an mNAV-crushing cascade that drives people into other bitcoin treasury companies, ETFs or bitcoin itself.

Now Saylor as first mover and by far the largest publicly-traded treasury company has a significant advantage. Institutions are far less likely to invest in size in smaller treasury companies with shorter track records, and many of them are not allowed to invest in ETFs or bitcoin at all. And even if a lot of money did go into any of those vehicles, it would only drive the value of his assets up and hence his stock price, no matter the mNAV. But Josh Mandell sold his shares prior to a weekend where bitcoin went from 102K to 104K, the US announced a deal with China, the mag-7 had a big spike (AAPL was up 6.3 percent) and then MSTR’s stock went down from 416 to 404. As I said, he is on to something.

So what’s the real long-term risk? I don’t know. Maybe there’s something about the nature of bitcoin that long-term is not really amenable to third-party custody and administration. It’s a bearer asset (“not your keys, not your coins”), and introducing counterparty risk is antithetical to its core purpose, the separation of money and state, or in this case money and bank.

With the bitcoin network you can literally “be your own bank.” To transact in digital dollars you need a bank account — or at least a stable coin one mediated by a centralized entity like Tether. You can’t hold digital dollars in your mind via some memorized seed words like you can bitcoin, accessible anywhere in the world, the ledger of which is maintained by tens of thousands of individually-run nodes. This property which democratizes value storage in the way gold did, except now you can wield your purchasing power globally, might be so antithetical to communal storage via corporation or bank that doing so is doomed to catastrophe.

We’ve already seen this happen with exchanges via FTX and Mt. Gox. Counterparty risk is one of the problems bitcoin was created to solve, so moving that risk from a fractionally reserved international banking system to corporate balance sheets still very much a part of that system is probably not the seismic advancement integral to the technology’s promise.

But this is more of a philosophical concern rather than a concrete one. To get more specific, it’s easy to imagine Coinbase, if indeed that’s where MSTR custodies its coins, gets hacked or https://www.chrisliss.com/p/soft-landing, i.e., seized by an increasingly desperate and insolvent government. Or maybe Coinbase simply doesn’t have the coins it purports like FTX, or a rogue band of employees, working on behalf of some powerful faction for “https://www.chrisliss.com/national-security-and-public-healt” executes the rug pull. Even if you deem these scenarios unlikely, they are not unfathomable.

Beyond outright counterparty malfeasance, there are other risks — what if owning common stock in an enterprise that simply holds bitcoin falls out of favor? Imagine if some new individual custody solution emerges wherein you have direct access to the coins themselves in an “even a boomer can do this” kind of way wherein there’s no compelling reason to own common stock with its junior claims to the capital stack in the event of insolvency? Why stand in line behind debt holders and preferred shares when you can invest in something that’s directly withdrawable and accessible if world events spike volatility to a systemic breaking point?

Things need not even get that rocky for this to be a concern — just the perception that they might could spook people into realizing common stock of a corporate balance sheet might be less than ideal as your custody solution.

Moreover, Saylor himself presents some risk. He could be compromised or blackmailed, he could lose his cool or get into an accident. These are low-probability scenarios, but also not unfathomable as any single point of failure is a target, especially for those factions who stand to lose unimaginable wealth and power should his speculative attack on the system succeed at scale.

Finally, even if Saylor remains free to operate as he sees fit, there is what I’d call the Icarus risk — he might be too ambitious, too hell-bent on acquiring bitcoin at all costs, too much of a maniac in service of his vision. Remember, he initially bought bitcoin during the covid crash and concomitant massive money print upon his prescient realization that businesses providing goods and services couldn’t possibly keep pace with inflation over the long haul. He was merely playing defense to preserve his capital, and now, despite his sizable lead and secured position is still throwing forward passes in the fourth quarter rather than running out the clock and securing the W.

Saylor is now arguably less a bitcoin maximalist and advocate, articulately making the case for superior money and individual sovereignty, but a corporate titan hell-bent on world domination via apex-predator-status balance sheet. When is enough enough? Many of the greatest conquerors in history pushed their empires too far until they fractured. In fact, 25 years ago MSTR was a big winner before the dot-com crash during which its stock price and most of Saylor’s fortune were wiped out when he was sued by the SEC for accounting fraud (he subsequently settled).

Now it’s possible, he learned from that experience, got up off the mat and figured out how to avoid his youthful mistakes. But it’s also possible his character is such that he will repeat it again, only this time at scale.

But as I said, my base case is MSTR is a trillion-dollar market cap, and the stock runs in parallel with bitcoin’s ascendance over the next decade. Saylor has been https://www.strategy.com/, prescient, bold and responsible so far over this iteration. I view Mandell’s concerns as valid, but similar to Wall St’s ones about AMZN’s Jeff Bezos who relentlessly ignored their insistence on profitability for a decade as he plowed every dollar into building out productive capacity and turned the company into the $2T world-dominating retail giant it is now.

Again, I haven’t (yet) sold any of my shares or even call options. But because I posted about this in January I felt I should at least follow-up with a more detailed rundown of what I take to be the risks. As always, do your own due diligence with any prospective investment.

@ 6ad3e2a3:c90b7740

When I was a kid, I wanted to be rich, but found the prospect of hard work tedious, pointless and soul-crushing. Instead of studying for exams, getting some job and clawing your way up the ladder, I wondered why we couldn’t just build a device that measured your brain capacity and awarded you the money you would have made had you applied yourself. Eliminate the middleman, so to speak, the useless paper pushing evoked by the word “career.”

But when you think about it, it’s not really money you’re after, as money is but purchasing power, and so it’s the things money can provide like a nice lifestyle and the peace of mind that comes from not worrying about it. And it’s not really the lifestyle or financial independence, per se, since moment to moment what’s in your bank account isn’t determining your mental state, but the feeling those things give you — a sense of expansiveness and freedom.

But if you did have such a machine, and it awarded you the money, you probably wouldn’t have that kind of expansiveness and freedom, especially if you did nothing to achieve those things. You would still feel bored, distracted and unsatisfied despite unrestricted means to travel or dine out as you saw fit. People who win the lottery, for example, tend to revert to their prior level of satisfaction in short order.

The feeling you really want then is the sense of rising to a challenge, negotiating and adapting to your environment, persevering in a state of uncertainty, tapping into your resourcefulness and creativity. It’s only while operating at the edge of your capacity you could ever be so fulfilled. In fact, in such a state the question of your satisfaction level would never come up. You wouldn’t even think to wonder about it you’d be so engrossed.

So what you really crave is a mind device that encourages you to adapt to your environment using your full creative capabilities in the present moment, so much so you realize if you do not do this, you have the sense of squandering your life in a tedious, pointless and soul-crushing way. You need to be totally stuck, without the option of turning back. In sum, you need to face reality exactly as it is, without any escape therefrom.

The measure of your mind in that case is your reality itself. The device is already with you — it’s the world you are presently creating with the consciousness you have, providing you avenues to escape, none of which are satisfactory, none that can lead to the state you truly desire. You have a choice to pursue them fruitlessly and wind up at square one, or to abandon them and attain your freedom. No matter how many times you go down a false road, you wind up at the same place until you give up on the Sisyphean task and proceed in earnest.

My childhood fantasy was real, it turns out, only I had misunderstood its meaning.

@ e5272de9:a16a102f

One of the highlights for me at the first day of nostriga nostriga was a panel discussion on web of trust with @Stuart Bowman, @Pip the social graph guy, @PABLOF7z, @hzrd149, and @ODELL. This to me is one of the most important topics in all of freedom tech, so I'd like to write up a few thoughts I had while they're still fresh on my mind, most of which revolve around the calculation of trust scores. Apologies if it's a bit long winded, don't seem to have the time to make it shorter.

What do we use for raw data?

There has been and on again, off again discussion during my time working in nostr over the sources of data that we should be using to calculate trust. In my mind we can think of the raw data as existing on a spectrum between two extremes. On one extreme, we have what I call proxy indicators of trust: follows, mutes, zaps, reactions, etc. People don't create this content with trust scores in mind, but we can and do use them as imperfect proxy indicators nontheless. And on the other extreme we have what I call explicit trust attestations, exemplified by the proposed NIP-77, authored by Lez, the heart and soul of which is that a fully explicit contextual trust attestation should have 3 fields: a context, a score, and a confidence. You fill in these fields, you say what you mean, and you mean what you say, leaving as little room for interpretation as possible. And then there is data that's in between these two extremes. A five star rating for a host on a couchsurfing platform or a vendor on an ecommerce site? A "superfollow" option in addition to a follow? These lie somewhere on the spectrum between proxy indicators on one end and explicit attestations of trust on the other.

During the panel today, Pablo and pippellia expressed the opinion that explicit trust attestations are not the way to go. Two reasons that I recall: first, that no one wants to put an exact number to trust; and second, that no one will update those numbers even if their assessment changes. These critiques have some merit to them. But I believe they miss the bigger picture.

The bigger picture

In the real world, there are two ways I can communicate trust: I can SHOW you, or I can TELL you. I can demonstrate trust through the actions that I take, such as following someone, or I can just straight up tell you that I trust someone in some context.

So here's the question: on nostr, which is the correct method to communicate trust? Proxy indicators, or explicit attestations? Do we SHOW or do we TELL?

My view is that we don't have to pick. We have to use all relevant and available raw data across the entire spectrum from one extreme to the other.

Each of these two options has its advantages and its disadvantages. The advantage of proxy indicators is that users issue them freely and easily, the result being that we are awash in a sea of data. The primary disadvantage of proxy indicators is that they often don't mean what we want them to mean. If Alice follows Bob, does that mean she trusts him? Maybe. Or maybe not. More often not. And what about context? Do we have any way of knowing?

So we use proxy indicators as a trust indicators because ... if it's the best or maybe even the only data we have, what else are we gonna do?

To do better, I argue that we need to give users more options when it comes to issuing explicit indicators of trust. But of course they're not going to do that without a reason. So to give them a reason, we have to figure out ahead of time how we're going to use the data once it's available. We have to know how to incorporate explicit trust indicators into our web of trust calculations. For the sake of argument, let's assume that we have a large dataset of proxy trust indicators (SHOW ME data) plus a small but nontrivial dataset with explicit trust attestations (TELL ME data). What we want to do is to pool all available relevant data together when we calculate trust scores. But how exactly do we do that? Which brings me to my next topic.

The calculation of trust scores

How are we even calculating the "web of trust scores" that we see today? Wikifreedia, Coracle, and a growing list of other clients have such scores. I wish I had seen more discussion in today's panel about HOW these calculation are performed. To the best of my knowledge, most clients use the same or a similar method: fetch my follows; fetch Bob's followers; calculate the set of users who are in both sets; and count up how many you get. Sometimes adjustments are made, usually a ding based on mutes. But usually, that's it. That's the WoT score.

I'll call this the "legacy WoT score" since it is basically the state of the art in nostr. The legacy WoT score can be a useful way to eliminate bots and bad actors. But it has a few disadvantages: it is, arguably, a bit of a popularity contest. It cannot see more than two hops away on your social graph. It's not very useful to new users who haven't yet built up their follows. And it's not clear how to use it to differentiate trust in different contexts.

It seems strange to me that so many clients use this single method to calculate WoT scores, but with relatively little discussion on the merits of this method as opposed to other methods. Or whether other methods even exist, for that matter.

Indeed, I believe there is another method to calculate trust scores that in most circumstances will turn out to be much more meaningful and useful. For the sake of this article, I will call this the "Grapevine WoT score" to distinguish it from the legacy WoT score. (Elsewhere I have used the phrase "influence score" in place of "Grapevine WoT score.")

The Grapevine method is (currently) based on follows and mutes, but calculated using a method entirely distinct from the legacy method, detailed here (where it is called simply the "influence score"). The Grapevine method has several advantages over the legacy method, but one in particular on the topic of SHOW versus TELL: the Grapevine method can take multiple distinct classes of data following distinct formats and pool them together, synthesizing and distilling them into a single Grapevine WoT score. By choosing different datasets, different scores corresponding to different contexts can be generated.

The future

So here's my prediction on how the future will play out. 1. The Grapevine method of trust score calculation is going to rely -- at first -- primarily on proxy indicators of trust (follows, mutes, zaps, reactions, etc) -- SHOW ME data -- because that’s the data that’s available to us in large quantities. 2. These contextual Grapevine scores will turn out to be surprisingly useful. 3. People will learn to game the scores by changing their behavior. 5. Consumers of trust data will gradually discover that SHOW ME data is becoming less and less reliable. 6. Authors of raw trust data will gradually learn that if they want their voices to be heard, they will need to communicate trust more explicitly. In ways that are harder to game. They will begin to move the needle ever so gradually towards TELL ME data. 7. Over time, larger datasets of TELL ME data will be available for input into Grapevine WoT scores. 8. As SHOW ME data becomes less reliable, and TELL ME data becomes more available, contextual Grapevine WoT scores will become more fine grained in terms of context and more reliable.

Of course, none of this will happen unless and until we start calculating Grapevine WoT scores and putting them to good use. To that end, several of us are working on the generation of these scores at brainSToRm. Right now, it's a slog to download the data to the browser. But we're working on improving the UX. And if you make it through the slog, you can export a NIP-51 list of the top-scoring pubkeys, minus the ones you're already following, and use them at clients like Amethyst or Coracle to generate a feed of content coming from the most highly "trusted" users whom you're not already following. A feed that is CUSTOMIZED by YOUR Grapevine.

So there you have it, my defense of explicit trust attestations.

@ 04c915da:3dfbecc9

For years American bitcoin miners have argued for more efficient and free energy markets. It benefits everyone if our energy infrastructure is as efficient and robust as possible. Unfortunately, broken incentives have led to increased regulation throughout the sector, incentivizing less efficient energy sources such as solar and wind at the detriment of more efficient alternatives.

The result has been less reliable energy infrastructure for all Americans and increased energy costs across the board. This naturally has a direct impact on bitcoin miners: increased energy costs make them less competitive globally.

Bitcoin mining represents a global energy market that does not require permission to participate. Anyone can plug a mining computer into power and internet to get paid the current dynamic market price for their work in bitcoin. Using cellphone or satellite internet, these mines can be located anywhere in the world, sourcing the cheapest power available.

Absent of regulation, bitcoin mining naturally incentivizes the build out of highly efficient and robust energy infrastructure. Unfortunately that world does not exist and burdensome regulations remain the biggest threat for US based mining businesses. Jurisdictional arbitrage gives miners the option of moving to a friendlier country but that naturally comes with its own costs.

Enter AI. With the rapid development and release of AI tools comes the requirement of running massive datacenters for their models. Major tech companies are scrambling to secure machines, rack space, and cheap energy to run full suites of AI enabled tools and services. The most valuable and powerful tech companies in America have stumbled into an accidental alliance with bitcoin miners: THE NEED FOR CHEAP AND RELIABLE ENERGY.

Our government is corrupt. Money talks. These companies will push for energy freedom and it will greatly benefit us all.

@ bbb5dda0:f09e2747

My week 19 started with a celebration of 80 years of liberation from the Germans (we love you guys now tho 🫶🏼). It feels conflicting, we're celebrating freedom, whilst cutting down those freedoms day by day more rapidly as time progresses. Should we still celebrate...?

The current path back to freedom can be mundane in the day to day but I wouldn't wanna have it any other way. These last couple weeks I've continued working on our TollGate pipelines to facilitate our release cycle, make it faster and easier to release in quick succession. There's been a lot of details to get right, because our releases are nostr based and once people start relying on the structure of the events we can't easily change it.

A TollGateOS release event now looks like this NIP-94 file metadata event:

json { "id": "a867f15ca7edc95a69e1557539a624466147584f68c62a16c47fe9bca3778312", "pubkey": "5075e61f0b048148b60105c1dd72bbeae1957336ae5824087e52efa374f8416a", "created_at": 1747475980, "kind": 1063, "tags": [ [ "url", "https://blossom.swissdash.site/9e5e8c48810a1b59cf10fa56486f311e048a0305eb58444992b6133fd19fcb3e.bin" ], [ "m", "application/octet-stream" ], [ "x", "9e5e8c48810a1b59cf10fa56486f311e048a0305eb58444992b6133fd19fcb3e" ], [ "ox", "9e5e8c48810a1b59cf10fa56486f311e048a0305eb58444992b6133fd19fcb3e" ], [ "architecture", "aarch64_cortex-a53" ], [ "device_id", "glinet_gl-mt3000" ], [ "supported_devices", "glinet,gl-mt3000 glinet,mt3000-snand" ], [ "openwrt_version", "24.10.1" ], [ "tollgate_os_version", "v0.0.2" ], [ "release_channel", "stable" ] ], "content": "TollGate OS Firmware for glinet_gl-mt3000", "sig": "1d050233428304685d202e954cb48714c800a7ca5f2d6a8d8fd657a775b9c51bf83364505311859c846e25098168a8ff309af2308712aafe634fcbdc96fcd84a" }

One of the missing links was the supported_devices tag. That is because the installer checks the device name by ssh-ing into the router and it returns the glinet,gl-mt3000 which doesn't properly translate into the device_id, which is what's used for compiling the OS. So this helps us to do the lookups and compatibility checks in the installer.

I also worked on: - getting the versioning of the tollgate-basic package's naming in line with the OpenWRT naming convention. - Rework versioning for dev builds into [branchname].[commit_height].[commit_hash] which will show up on the dev release_channel releases. - Getting an initial release of the tollgate-installer done, so we can easily flash a bunch of routers to become TollGates.

Bright minds in Prague

I met up with some bright minds from the space in Prague where @cobrador and i did a workshop on turning routers into TollGates and start earning sats. As is part of building things, things break and people make us aware of issues that we wouldn't foresee. Like for some reason Minibits cashu tokens being rejected, which is likely because of the memo's but we still need to dive into that issue.

Also we released [v0.0.2] of TollGate OS, which now includes an updater feature, again for faster release cycles. Currently we're focussing on getting a v0.0.3 out quickly with fixes for the user feedback we've gathered so far!

Receipt.Cash

I also, kind of unplanned, saw an opportunity to shill Receipt.Cash. I'd made a few improvements recently and it's ready enough for reckless people to try it out ;).

| | | | | | Payer Scans any fiat receipt & Share link with friends | Friends tap what they had, price is auto-converted to sats, then pay by Lightning or Cashu. | If you want to try it, BE CAREFUL! It is highly experimental and you might lose your sats, no refunds!

Source Code here.

@ 3770c235:16042bcc

In recent years, a remarkable transformation has taken place in the way people view and utilize their homes. No longer confined to the four walls of traditional interior spaces, homeowners are increasingly turning their attention outward—toward their own backyards. The concept of outdoor living has evolved from mere patio furniture and barbecues to fully functional living environments, equipped with kitchens, entertainment systems, and even workspaces.

This growing trend is not just a design choice; it reflects changing lifestyles, shifting priorities, and a reimagining of what it means to feel at home. The rise of outdoor living is more than a fad—it's a movement, and it's here to stay.

**A Shift in Lifestyle and Values ** At the heart of the outdoor living boom is a deeper shift in how people value their time, environment, and personal space. The COVID-19 pandemic played a significant role in this evolution. Lockdowns and restrictions forced many to reassess their living situations, seeking ways to make the most of what they already had. The backyard, once overlooked, suddenly became a sanctuary—a space to breathe, gather, and escape the monotony of indoor life.

According to a 2021 study by the International Casual Furnishings Association, over 90% of Americans with outdoor living space report that it is more valuable to them than ever before, with nearly 60% saying they upgraded their outdoor spaces during the pandemic source.

This change in perception is not solely pandemic-related. There's a growing emphasis on wellness, mindfulness, and balance. People are looking to nature for inspiration and relaxation. Outdoor living spaces—be they modest balconies or expansive decks—allow homeowners to connect with nature without leaving the comfort of home.

Redefining the Backyard: From Playgrounds to Living Rooms

Traditionally, the backyard has served specific purposes—gardening, children’s play areas, maybe a grill tucked in the corner. Today, backyards are being reimagined as multi-functional extensions of the home.

1. Outdoor Kitchens and Dining Areas Once considered a luxury, outdoor kitchens have become increasingly common. With built-in grills, pizza ovens, refrigerators, sinks, and full countertops, these outdoor culinary spaces rival their indoor counterparts. The convenience of preparing and serving meals outside is matched by the social benefit: cooking becomes a shared experience.

2. Living and Lounge Areas Outdoor seating now goes far beyond foldable lawn chairs. Modular sectionals, fire pits, weather-resistant rugs, and even smart lighting have turned patios into legitimate living rooms under the sky. Some include mounted TVs, Bluetooth speakers, and retractable canopies or pergolas for all-weather comfort.

3. Work and Study Zones Remote work has blurred the boundaries between office and home. Now, it’s expanding into the outdoors. With Wi-Fi extenders, weather-protected furniture, and shade structures, backyards are becoming viable home office environments, perfect for Zoom calls with a natural backdrop.

4. Wellness Retreats From hot tubs and saunas to yoga decks and meditation gardens, outdoor spaces are being tailored to support wellness. These personal sanctuaries offer solitude and stress relief, all within the perimeter of one's property.

The Role of Technology and Innovation Modern outdoor spaces owe much of their versatility to advances in technology and materials. Weather-resistant fabrics, composite decking, solar lighting, and smart irrigation systems have all expanded what's possible in backyard design.

Smart home technology has also made its way outdoors. Lighting can be automated or voice-controlled. Outdoor speakers can be synced across zones. Even grills can be connected to apps that monitor cooking temperatures. These innovations allow outdoor living to be both luxurious and convenient, requiring minimal maintenance while offering maximum comfort.

**Economic Impact and Value Addition ** Investing in outdoor living isn't just about lifestyle—it’s also smart economics. Outdoor upgrades can significantly boost a home's resale value. A well-designed patio or outdoor kitchen can yield a return on investment (ROI) of up to 80%, according to the National Association of Realtors. In fact, data from Houzz shows that nearly 57% of homeowners are investing in their outdoor spaces specifically to increase resale value source.

This financial motivation has fueled demand for landscape architects, outdoor furniture designers, and construction professionals specializing in outdoor living projects. As a result, the industry surrounding outdoor enhancements—from pergola manufacturers to luxury fire pit designers—has seen exponential growth.

Environmental Considerations and Sustainability As outdoor living becomes more popular, so does the demand for environmentally conscious design. Homeowners are increasingly incorporating sustainable elements into their outdoor plans, including: • Native plant landscaping: Reduces water usage and supports local ecosystems. • Rainwater harvesting systems: Collect and store rain for garden irrigation. • Solar-powered lighting: Minimizes energy consumption while maximizing ambiance. • Permeable paving materials: Reduce runoff and promote groundwater recharge. Green living isn't just a buzzword—it’s influencing how people design their outdoor sanctuaries. Eco-conscious homeowners are prioritizing sustainability as much as aesthetics, ensuring their outdoor spaces are in harmony with nature, not in conflict with it.

The Social Connection

Outdoor living also taps into our basic need for connection. From summer barbecues to cozy firepit gatherings, the backyard is an ideal setting for meaningful social interactions. During a time when indoor gatherings have been restricted or limited, outdoor spaces have offered a safer, more accessible alternative.

Community ties can also be strengthened through outdoor living. In urban settings, rooftop terraces or shared gardens create communal spaces for neighbors to engage, collaborate, and unwind. For families, these outdoor extensions offer a way to spend quality time together—whether through games, meals, or simply enjoying the open air. For individuals, they provide a space to recharge, free from the digital and physical clutter of indoor life.

Customization and Personalization

One of the most appealing aspects of outdoor living is the high degree of customization available. Unlike interior spaces that may be limited by architectural constraints, outdoor areas can often be more flexible in layout and design.

Homeowners can craft outdoor environments that reflect their personalities and values: • The entertainer may opt for a bar area, ambient lighting, and surround sound. • The minimalist might choose clean lines, neutral tones, and eco-friendly materials. • The nature-lover may emphasize greenery, water features, and natural textures. DIY options also abound, allowing for creative freedom and budget-friendly upgrades. Raised garden beds, handmade furniture, repurposed materials, and vertical planters give individuals the opportunity to leave their personal mark on the space.

The Influence of Global Design Trends Outdoor living isn’t confined to North America. Around the world, cultures have long embraced outdoor spaces—from Japanese zen gardens to Mediterranean courtyards. The current global design conversation draws inspiration from a variety of traditions and climates.

Scandinavian principles of simplicity and functionality influence clean-lined, open-air designs, while tropical resorts have inspired lush, greenery-filled retreats in suburban settings. The blending of international styles enables homeowners to create outdoor spaces that are both eclectic and functional.

Looking Ahead: The Future of Outdoor Living The trajectory of outdoor living points to continued growth, innovation, and integration. Here are some trends likely to define the next decade:

1. Year-Round Use With heating lamps, insulated pergolas, and all-weather furniture, outdoor spaces are becoming viable in all seasons. Expect to see more designs tailored for winter, including hot tubs, enclosed lounges, and warm lighting features.
2. Outdoor Smart Hubs Technology will play an even greater role, with integrated outdoor control systems for lighting, security, irrigation, and entertainment—managed through a single device or app.
3. Edible Landscaping Gardens will not only be for beauty but also for sustenance. Raised vegetable beds, fruit trees, and herb walls will become staples in functional outdoor design.
4. Modular Design Portable and adaptable elements like movable walls, foldable furniture, and hybrid indoor-outdoor structures will offer more flexibility, especially in smaller spaces.
5. Wellness Integration Expect an even stronger emphasis on health and well-being—cold plunge pools, outdoor gyms, meditation pods, and immersive natural soundscapes will take center stage.

---

Conclusion The rise of outdoor living is not just a design phenomenon—it’s a cultural shift. Homeowners are recognizing the value of outdoor spaces as extensions of their identities, routines, and dreams. Whether it's a serene garden, a vibrant entertainment hub, or a cozy work nook, the backyard is being redefined as a vital part of the home. In a world that often feels fast-paced and digitally overloaded, outdoor living offers a much-needed antidote: space to breathe, relax, connect, and thrive. It’s about more than upgrading the home—it’s about enhancing the human experience. As this trend continues to evolve, one thing is clear: the best room in the house may not be inside at all.

@ 88cc134b:5ae99079

content

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzpkygz22lv3pdey6gr7ygmk67wjh24hdvj3t797mm6z0x3ax4erdhqqsdxy48qm3tces0tu90shwltcg20zsprejkahklwftpzyhytcf32tc9sm779

@ a296b972:e5a7a2e8

Die Natur strebt nach einem Gleichgewicht durch Ausgleich von nicht zueinander passenden Verhältnissen. Die Gesellschaft ist ein sozialer Organismus, der ebenso nach Ausgleich und einer Stimmigkeit der Verhältnisse strebt. Das sind Naturgesetze, die keine Regierung auf Dauer imstande ist, außer Kraft zu setzen.

Weder oppositionelle Kräfte, noch Kräfte innerhalb des Souveräns haben die Absicht, die Demokratie abzuschaffen. Es geht vielmehr darum, sie wieder in der Form herzustellen, in der sie ihren Namen auch verdient. Dazu gehört, dass alle Macht vom Volke ausgeht, was derzeit nicht der Fall ist.

Ein durch den Staat vorgegebenes Bildungssystem hat Menschen vor allem zu gefügigen Rädchen im Wirtschaftsgetriebe und nicht zu alles kritisch hinterfragenden Bürgern erzogen, die ständig der Regierung auf die Finger schauen.

Wenn die Bürger, der Souverän, eine Regierung immer mehr „machen lässt“ und glaubt, es sei genug, alle 4 Jahre sein Wahl-Kreuzchen zu machen, entfernt er sich immer mehr von der Kontrolle der durch ihn beauftragten Vertreter, und diese entfernen sich so immer mehr vom Alltag der Bürger.

Zu wenig Gegenrede des Souveräns führt zu immer mehr Übermut der Regierung, die sich immer sicherer wird, mit jedem Unsinn durchzukommen.

Ist dann die Schmerzgrenze des Souveräns erreicht, beginnt er, die Opposition zu stärken. In einer funktionierenden Demokratie würde das dazu führen, dass die Opposition die Regierung bildet, die dann die Chance hat, Fehlentwicklungen abzustellen und ausgleichend tätig zu werden.

Derzeit findet sowohl beim Souverän, als auch bei den Parteien, die bisher Regierungen zusammengestellt haben, ein Erwachen statt.

Da die ehemaligen Volks-Parteien unbedingt an der Macht festhalten wollen, seitens des Souveräns auf zu wenig Widerstand stoßen, wird mit der Macht, einer Demokratie nicht würdig, umgegangen. Dem sollte dringend Einhalt geboten werden.

Der Missbrauch äußert sich in brutalen (Lieblingswort der Ex-Außen-Dings) Einschränkungen der Grundrechte (Corona-Zeit), in der Einschränkung der Meinungsfreiheit (D S A), in Tendenzen zunehmender Kontrolle und Überwachung, Förderung von Denunzianten-Portalen, Kapern des öffentlich-rechtlichen Rundfunks, Förderung von NGOs, die als Sprechpuppen genutzt werden. Besetzt von Menschen, die entweder tatsächlich überzeugt sind von dem, was sie ideologisch vertreten, oder die über Charaktereigenschaften verfügen, die noch sehr viel Optimierungspotenzial in sich bergen. Gepaart mit fachlicher Inkompetenz ist das ein gefährlicher Cocktail.

Erst jüngst sogar durch Ausreiseverbote, wie in einem Staat, mit dem man das derzeitige Deutschland nicht vergleichen darf. So groß ist inzwischen schon die Angst geworden, die Kontrolle über die Macht zu verlieren. Alles, was an Kritik geäußert werden will, gilt als Delegitimierung des Staates. Auf keinen Fall darf sie im Ausland geäußert werden, damit es ja nichts davon mitbekommt, was in Deutschland abgeht. Das ist so wie ein Kind, dass sich die Hände vor die Augen hält und meint, es würde nicht gesehen werden.

Die Regierung ist übergriffig geworden. Je lauter sie Demokratie schreit, desto totalitärer wird sie.

Durch fehlende Kontrolle des Souveräns sind charakterlich und fachlich ungeeignete Personen in die Politik gelangt, deren ständige Überforderung dazu führt, dass sich deren Entscheidungen immer weiter von der Lebensrealität des Souveräns entfernen.

Bislang haben rund 25% des Souveräns diese Schieflage erkannt und wollen einer Opposition, die so stark geworden ist, weil die Alt-Parteien über Jahre Fehler an Fehler aneinandergereiht haben, die Gelegenheit geben, diese Fehler zu beheben und auszugleichen. Offen bleibt die Frage, ob sie dazu wirklich in der Lage sind, oder ob die Gefahr besteht, dass sie von einem möglicherweise grundsätzlich kranken System vereinnahmt werden.

Da es seitens der Alt-Parteien keine Einsicht gibt, dass sie in der Regierung nicht mehr den Willen des Souveräns vertreten, derzeit auch besonders gut zu sehen an dem Friedenswillen des Souveräns im Vergleich zur Kriegstreiberei der Regierung, bleibt nur, der Opposition zumindest die Chance zu geben, es besser zu machen und den Willen des Souveräns umzusetzen. Gelänge das nicht, ist die Demokratie, wie wir sie bislang verstanden haben, gescheitert.

Eine daraus resultierende Staatsform stünde dem Freiheitsgedanken diametral gegenüber.

Die Verteidigung von Unseredemokratie seitens der Regierung entlarvt das eigentliche, was damit gemeint ist, nämlich die Erhaltung der eigenen Macht, verbunden mit allen Vorzügen und Privilegien. Sie richtet sich gegen das eigene Volk, das mit einer ganz normal funktionierenden Demokratie schon sehr zufrieden wäre. Unseredemokratie ist nicht unsere Demokratie!

In Anlehnung an die berühmt gewordene Lüge Walter Ulbrichs: „Niemand hat die Absicht eine Mauer zu errichten“, hat derzeit niemand die Absicht, die sogenannte Brandmauer einzureißen, bzw. sie so lange stehen zu lassen, wie es eben geht, um die herrschenden Machtverhältnisse so lange wie möglich aufrechtzuerhalten. Die Geschichte hat jedoch zum Glück gezeigt, dass selbst eine Berliner Mauer nicht ewig hält.

Wie sich aus dem absurd-lächerlichen Gutachten, einer der Regierung gegenüber weisungsgebundenen Behörde herausgestellt hat, gibt es keinerlei Anzeichen dafür, dass die Opposition die demokratische Grundordnung weder gefährden noch beseitigen will.

Da die ehemaligen Volksparteien augenscheinlich nicht in der Lage sind, politische, wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Verhältnisse zum Wohle des Deutschen Volkes herzustellen, ist der demokratische Weg, die Opposition hierzu zu ermächtigen.

Wird das weiterhin verhindert, wird der Unmut des Souveräns weiter zunehmen, und spätestens, wenn die zunehmenden Schikanen die Schmerzgrenze überschritten haben, wird der Souverän nach geeigneten Mitteln und Möglichkeiten suchen, diese Schieflage zu beheben und auszugleichen.

Derzeit stehen sich ein in der Zahl und im Befinden zunehmend unzufrieden werdender Souverän und eine immer absurdere Entscheidungen treffende Regierung im lebendigen Tauziehen um Interessen gegenüber. Je mehr Bockmist die Alt-Parteien bauen, um so stärker wird die Opposition.

Aufgrund der jetzt schon vorhandenen Anzahl wacher Bürger und der Anzahl der in der Politik Unfähigen, ist eigentlich schon jetzt klar, wer in diesem Tauziehen die größere Kraft hat und wer das „Spiel“ nach demokratischen Regeln am Ende gewinnen wird. Das ist eindeutig der Souverän. Verliert er, wider Erwarten, verliert auch die Demokratie.

Dem Souverän fehlt nur noch ein wenig mehr Selbstvertrauen und ein Bewusstsein für die Macht, über die er tatsächlich verfügt.

Je mehr absurde Entscheidungen seitens der Regierung getroffen werden, und man arbeitet ja sehr fleißig daran, besonders, wenn es um Frieden geht, desto stärker wird das Selbstbewusstsein des Souveräns werden und ein natürlicher, friedlicher Ausgleich der Schieflage kann stattfinden. Der Start der neuen Regierung war jedenfalls schon einmal sehr "Keine-4-Jahre".

Wer sich in die steile und eisglatte Abfahrtspiste Deutschlands vertiefen will, hier eine Rezension zu dem Buch „Im Taumel des Niedergangs“ von dem von mir sehr geschätzten und akribisch arbeitenden Uwe Froschauer:

https://www.manova.news/artikel/abwarts

oder

https://wassersaege.com/blogbeitraege/abwaerts-rezension-des-buches-im-taumel-des-niedergangs-von-uwe-froschauer/

Dieser Artikel wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben

* *

(Bild von pixabay)

@ 91bea5cd:1df4451c

Contexto e início

O precursor direto do avivamento foi William J. Seymour, um pregador afro-americano filho de ex-escravos, influenciado pelos ensinamentos de Charles Parham, que pregava o "batismo no Espírito Santo" com evidência do falar em línguas.

Em 1906, Seymour foi convidado para pregar em uma igreja em Los Angeles. Após ser rejeitado por alguns por sua pregação sobre o batismo com o Espírito Santo, ele começou a liderar reuniões de oração na casa da família Asberry. Em abril de 1906, durante uma dessas reuniões, os participantes começaram a experimentar manifestações intensas do Espírito Santo, incluindo glossolalia (falar em línguas), curas e profecias.

A Rua Azusa

Logo, o número de participantes cresceu tanto que foi necessário mudar para um antigo prédio da Igreja Metodista Africana Episcopal, no número 312 da Rua Azusa, no centro de Los Angeles. Esse local se tornou o epicentro do avivamento.

Características marcantes

Cultos espontâneos e fervorosos, muitas vezes sem ordem pré-definida.

Diversidade étnica e social: negros, brancos, latinos, asiáticos, ricos e pobres adoravam juntos — algo radical para os padrões da época.

Ênfase nas manifestações espirituais, como línguas, curas, visões e profecias.

Igualdade de gênero e raça no ministério, com mulheres e homens de diversas origens pregando e liderando.

Impacto

O avivamento da Rua Azusa marcou o nascimento e expansão global do pentecostalismo, hoje uma das maiores forças do cristianismo mundial. Missionários saíram de Azusa para várias partes do mundo, levando a mensagem pentecostal. Movimentos como as Assembleias de Deus e Igreja do Evangelho Quadrangular têm raízes nesse avivamento.

Tensão e Interpretação entre Reformistas e Pentecostalistas

Evangelhos e Atos

João Batista profetiza: “Ele vos batizará com o Espírito Santo e com fogo” (Mateus 3:11).

Em Atos 2, no Pentecostes, os discípulos falam em línguas e recebem poder (Atos 1:8; 2:4).

Outros episódios: Atos 10 (Casa de Cornélio) e Atos 19 (Éfeso).

Cartas Paulinas

Paulo não relaciona diretamente o “batismo com o Espírito” ao falar em línguas. Em 1 Coríntios 12:13 ele diz: “Pois em um só Espírito todos nós fomos batizados em um corpo”.

A glossolalia aparece como um dom entre outros, mas não como evidência obrigatória (1 Coríntios 12:30).

Tensão

Pentecostais veem o batismo com o Espírito como uma segunda experiência após a conversão, evidenciada por línguas. Reformados geralmente interpretam que o batismo com o Espírito ocorre na conversão e que línguas não são obrigatórias ou cessaram com os apóstolos.

Reformadores e o Batismo com o Espírito Santo

Martinho Lutero, João Calvino e outros reformadores não falavam em línguas nem davam ênfase a experiências carismáticas.

Cessacionismo: Doutrina comum entre reformados que diz que os dons sobrenaturais (línguas, profecias, curas) cessaram com a era apostólica.

Continuação (posição pentecostal): Os dons continuam hoje.

Filmes / Documentários

“Azusa Street: The Origins of Pentecostalism” (2006) – Documentário com imagens históricas e entrevistas.

“Wesley” (2009) – Biografia de John Wesley, precursor do metodismo e influência indireta no pentecostalismo.

“The Cross and the Switchblade” (1970) – História de David Wilkerson e a conversão de Nicky Cruz; enfatiza a obra do Espírito.

Série “God in America” (PBS) – Episódio sobre o pentecostalismo (não só Azusa, mas seu impacto cultural).

@ e4950c93:1b99eccd

Contenu à venir.

En savoir plus sur Wikipedia

@ 56f27915:5fee3024

Buchbeschreibung:\ \ Dieses Buch ist ein Appell. 

Es richtet sich nicht nur an den Kopf des Lesers, sondern auch an seinen Willen.\ \ Es ist ein Appell an Volk und Leser, die Lenkung der Geschicke direkt selbst in die Hand zu nehmen. Nicht nur: "Was ist?" sondern vor allem: "Was können wir tun?" ist in diesem Buch die große Frage.\ \ Mit dem Blick auf diese Frage wird das Grundgesetz betrachtet und gezeigt, dass es absolut noch nicht der gediegene Glockenguss ist, als der es uns von "oben" immer vorgestellt wurde, sondern dass in ihm auch extrem gegenläufige, bemessen an seinen freiheitlich-demokratischen Idealen sogar als extrem verfassungs-widrig zu bezeichnende Tendenzen wirken, die heute in seine Zerstörung führen.\ \ Vor allem die unselige Übermacht des Parteienwesens und die damit verbundene systemische Entmündigung des Souveräns, des Volkes, ist das Ergebnis dieser verfassungs-widrigen Tendenzen.\ \ Es wird aber auch gezeigt, wo in den Idealen des Grundgesetzes und in den Entscheidungen der Mütter und Väter dieses Grundgesetzes die Ansatzpunkte liegen, durch die der Zerstörung des Grundgesetzes wirkungsvoll begegnet werden kann. Und diese Ansatzpunkte werden im Buch allseits zur Entfaltung gebracht.\ \ "Wer die Demokratie verteidigen will, der muss sie weiter entwickeln." Im Sinne dieses Wortes wird dem Leser ein praktikabler Weg gewiesen, auf dem er unmittelbar helfen kann, das Grundgesetz den wirkenden Zerstörungskräften zu entwinden, durch Einrichtung der direkten Bürgerbeteiligung an den entscheidenden Fragen unserer Republik die Position des Souveräns gegenüber der Parteienmacht zu stärken, Freiheitsrechte, Demokratie und Rechtsstaat auf eine wesentlich höhere Stufe als bisher zu bringen und sich durch eine verfassungs-klärende Versammlung seine Basis selbst und neu zu geben.

Buch bestellen: https://great-reset-von-unten.de/

\ Und nicht vergessen, abzustimmen! Die Zeit ist reif. Packen wir's an.\  

@ cae03c48:2a7d6671

Bitcoin Magazine

Ben Allen Receives Maelstrom Bitcoin Developer Grant to Advance Payjoin Tech

Ben Allen has been named the third recipient of the Maelstrom Bitcoin Developer Grant, the family office of Arthur Hayes announced in a recent press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine. Over the next year, Allen will focus on enhancing the Payjoin Dev Kit project, a privacy-focused Bitcoin transaction tool designed to improve user anonymity and network scalability.

Payjoin, first introduced in 2019 by Nicolas Dorier in BIP 78, allows both the sender and receiver to contribute inputs to a single Bitcoin transaction. This disrupts common assumptions used by financial surveillance firms, namely the idea that multiple transaction inputs must come from a single entity. By breaking this assumption, even limited adoption of Payjoin can bolster privacy across the Bitcoin network.

“Maelstrom would like to congratulate Ben Allen on this grant,” said Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom. “The great thing about Payjoin, is that if only a small amount of adoption is achieved, it breaks a key assumption used by financial surveillance companies. The assumption they have is that if a Bitcoin transaction has multiple inputs, all the inputs must all belong to the same entity. Therefore, Payjoin adoption improves the privacy of even the people who don’t use it. We are excited to support Ben Allen’s work on open-source tools and software to increase Payjoin adoption.” 

Allen, who will be working alongside Dan Gould, aims to expand the implementation of Payjoin so it can be integrated into more Bitcoin wallets. He acknowledged the technical complexities of the project—including the requirement for receivers to be online—but expressed optimism about overcoming these challenges.

“I’m deeply grateful to Arthur Hayes and Maelstrom for generously providing me with this grant to support my work on the Payjoin Dev Kit project,” said Allen. “With this funding, I can dedicate myself full-time to enhancing the Payjoin implementation, improving testing, and ensuring that the dev kit remains robust, well-documented, and maintainable for the future.”

Allen also emphasized the broader mission of his work: “Improving privacy for bitcoin is an area where continued improvement allows for a better experience by empowering users to control their financial data and foster greater peace of mind when using bitcoin day to day. This is an exciting opportunity to contribute to Bitcoin’s privacy and scalability, and I’m looking forward to continuing to collaborate with the community to make Payjoin more widely adopted.”

Maelstrom, which is focused on supporting digital asset infrastructure, is led by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX. Through grants like this one, the firm is investing in the foundational tools that promote a more private, scalable, and decentralized Bitcoin ecosystem.

This post Ben Allen Receives Maelstrom Bitcoin Developer Grant to Advance Payjoin Tech first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Jenna Montgomery.

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Bitcoin Magazine

Proof of Reserves Should Be the Standard for Bitcoin Treasury Companies

“The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve.”
— Satoshi Nakamoto (2009)

---

Bitcoin was created to eliminate the need for trusted intermediaries. It replaced opaque, permissioned systems with transparency, auditability, and decentralized verification. The ethos was clear from day one: don’t trust—verify.

And yet, many of the institutions now holding Bitcoin—custodians, exchanges, ETFs, even public companies—continue to rely on trust-based assumptions, the very problem Bitcoin was designed to solve.

For Bitcoin treasury companies, this contradiction is especially glaring. These are firms that claim to operate on a Bitcoin standard—yet without verifiable Proof of Reserves (PoR), there’s no way for shareholders to know whether the Bitcoin is actually there.

The Problem: Unproven Bitcoin Is Just Another IOU

Bitcoin is designed to be verifiable—but most corporate disclosures aren’t. When companies report BTC holdings without public wallet visibility or on-chain proof, investors are left to trust balance sheets, auditors, and custodians.

That opens the door to systemic risks:

• Rehypothecation: BTC pledged or lent behind the scenes
• Custodial failure: Centralized services operating without 1:1 backing
• “Paper Bitcoin”: Multiple claims on the same BTC, echoing legacy financial opacity

The mere presence of Bitcoin on a balance sheet is not a guarantee. Without verification, it’s no different than a fiat-denominated claim—an IOU dressed up in BTC terms.

What We Learned from Gold: The Paper Problem

Bitcoin is not the first hard asset to face this challenge. The gold market offers a cautionary tale.

For decades, gold investors have dealt with “paper gold” systems—unallocated accounts, synthetic ETFs, and derivatives with little or no linkage to actual metal. These claims often outnumber real reserves many times over, leading to widespread suspicion of price distortion and systemic misrepresentation.

Most gold investors don’t own gold—they own a claim to gold. And they have no way to prove it.

Bitcoin gives us the tools to break this cycle. But only if companies choose to use them.

Bitcoin Is Built for Proof—and Companies Should Use It

Unlike legacy assets, Bitcoin is designed to make proof of ownership and solvency a native function of the asset itself. Through public key cryptography, on-chain auditability, and permissionless transparency, Bitcoin enables real-time, trust-minimized verification.

This isn’t just a technical capability—it’s a governance feature. Bitcoin allows companies to demonstrate, cryptographically and without intermediaries, that their reserves exist, are intact, and are unencumbered. No bank statements. No opaque custodial claims. Just data, on-chain.

That’s a radical shift—and it’s one that Bitcoin treasury companies are uniquely positioned to take advantage of. In doing so, they can reduce audit complexity, strengthen shareholder communication, and align their internal capital practices with the trustless architecture of the asset they’re holding.

And it’s already happening. Metaplanet, Premiere Member of Bitcoin For Corporations, publicly discloses its BTC reserve addresses and transaction history. Anyone in the world—including shareholders, analysts, and regulators—can independently verify the existence and movement of their treasury. That’s not just compliance. That’s Bitcoin, applied. View the snapshot of Metaplanet’s proof of reserves dashboard below.

Public Companies Face the Greatest Responsibility

Public companies don’t operate in a vacuum. Their disclosures shape market perception, influence investor behavior, and—especially when Bitcoin is involved—serve as a proxy for the maturity of the asset class itself.

When a publicly traded company holds Bitcoin but offers no visibility into how that Bitcoin is held or verified, it exposes itself to multiple levels of risk: legal, reputational, operational, and strategic. It undermines trust at the very moment it claims to be embracing a trustless system.

More importantly, public companies send signals. Whether they like it or not, they become de facto representatives of the Bitcoin strategy they’ve adopted. Their behavior becomes part of the playbook for others considering similar moves.

That’s why the responsibility is higher. Transparency isn’t optional for companies who lead with Bitcoin. It’s a duty. And companies that choose opacity not only take on unnecessary risk—they weaken the credibility of the entire movement.e.

What Proof of Reserves Should Actually Include

For Proof of Reserves to have real integrity, it must go beyond vague references to “custody partners” or internal assurance statements. The key is verifiability—independent, data-driven, and actionable by any shareholder or auditor.

At a minimum, Bitcoin treasury companies should provide:

• Custody model clarity: Is the company using self-custody, shared multisig, or third-party solutions? Who controls the keys, and under what governance?
• On-chain transparency: Whether through view-only wallet addresses or cryptographic attestations (like Merkle tree proofs), companies must make it possible to verify balances against public disclosures.
• Encumbrance disclosure: Reserves that are pledged, lent out, or locked in yield strategies should be disclosed clearly, with timelines and risk parameters attached.
• Routine updates: Proof should be refreshed regularly—not once per year in an audit footnote, but as part of ongoing financial communication.
• Reconciliation framework: Companies should explain how on-chain data maps to reported BTC NAV in filings or investor materials.

For boards and CFOs, this doesn’t need to introduce operational risk. Tools already exist—xpub view-only wallets, custody APIs, third-party validators—to provide assurance without compromising security. The obstacle isn’t capability. It’s willingness.

Setting the Industry Benchmark: Where Bitcoin Treasury Companies Must Lead

Bitcoin treasury companies are not just financial outliers—they are structural pioneers. Their decision to hold BTC signals not only a belief in long-term value, but a rejection of legacy capital inefficiency. That’s why they must also lead on standards of integrity.

By adopting PoR voluntarily and early, companies can position themselves as trustworthy, sophisticated, and future-ready. This will matter more as institutional capital rotates into Bitcoin, as index inclusion expands, and as regulators begin asking sharper questions about crypto asset disclosures on balance sheets.

PoR isn’t just a way to comply with future standards—it’s a way to shape them. The companies that lead now will not only avoid future scrutiny—they’ll attract capital from allocators who are seeking transparency but don’t yet know where to find it.

At BFC, we believe the market rewards clarity. Bitcoin treasury companies have a chance to bake transparency into their structure, not as an afterthought, but as a strategic differentiator.

Shareholders Must Demand It

Proof of Reserves isn’t just a company initiative—it’s a shareholder obligation. When a public company holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet, it is acting as a fiduciary for shareholder capital denominated in one of the hardest, most transparent assets in history. To accept opacity in that context is to forfeit the very advantage Bitcoin offers.

If you’re an investor in a Bitcoin treasury company and you can’t verify the Bitcoin, you don’t own a monetary reserve—you own a narrative. You’re trusting that someone else is telling the truth, rather than requiring the proof Bitcoin makes possible.

That’s not aligned with the principles of sound capital stewardship.

Institutional allocators, activist shareholders, and governance professionals have a growing role to play here. Just as proxy advisors and investor coalitions have pushed for climate disclosures, board transparency, and ESG clarity in the past decade, it’s time to apply that same rigor to Bitcoin disclosures—especially for companies who claim to operate on a Bitcoin standard.

Demand direct answers:

• Can we verify the holdings on-chain?
• Are reserves fully collateralized and unencumbered?
• Has manageme

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The new website is finally live! I put in a lot of hard work over the past months on it. I'm proud to say that it's out now and it looks pretty cool, at least to me!

Why rewrite it all?

The old kycnot.me site was built using Python with Flask about two years ago. Since then, I've gained a lot more experience with Golang and coding in general. Trying to update that old codebase, which had a lot of design flaws, would have been a bad idea. It would have been like building on an unstable foundation.

That's why I made the decision to rewrite the entire application. Initially, I chose to use SvelteKit with JavaScript. I did manage to create a stable site that looked similar to the new one, but it required Jav aScript to work. As I kept coding, I started feeling like I was repeating "the Python mistake". I was writing the app in a language I wasn't very familiar with (just like when I was learning Python at that mom ent), and I wasn't happy with the code. It felt like spaghetti code all the time.

So, I made a complete U-turn and started over, this time using Golang. While I'm not as proficient in Golang as I am in Python now, I find it to be a very enjoyable language to code with. Most aof my recent pr ojects have been written in Golang, and I'm getting the hang of it. I tried to make the best decisions I could and structure the code as well as possible. Of course, there's still room for improvement, which I'll address in future updates.

Now I have a more maintainable website that can scale much better. It uses a real database instead of a JSON file like the old site, and I can add many more features. Since I chose to go with Golang, I mad e the "tradeoff" of not using JavaScript at all, so all the rendering load falls on the server. But I believe it's a tradeoff that's worth it.

What's new

• UI/UX - I've designed a new logo and color palette for kycnot.me. I think it looks pretty cool and cypherpunk. I am not a graphic designer, but I think I did a decent work and I put a lot of thinking on it to make it pleasant!
• Point system - The new point system provides more detailed information about the listings, and can be expanded to cover additional features across all services. Anyone can request a new point!
• ToS Scrapper: I've implemented a powerful automated terms-of-service scrapper that collects all the ToS pages from the listings. It saves you from the hassle of reading the ToS by listing the lines that are suspiciously related to KYC/AML practices. This is still in development and it will improve for sure, but it works pretty fine right now!
• Search bar - The new search bar allows you to easily filter services. It performs a full-text search on the Title, Description, Category, and Tags of all the services. Looking for VPN services? Just search for "vpn"!
• Transparency - To be more transparent, all discussions about services now take place publicly on GitLab. I won't be answering any e-mails (an auto-reply will prompt to write to the corresponding Gitlab issue). This ensures that all service-related matters are publicly accessible and recorded. Additionally, there's a real-time audits page that displays database changes.
• Listing Requests - I have upgraded the request system. The new form allows you to directly request services or points without any extra steps. In the future, I plan to enable requests for specific changes to parts of the website.
• Lightweight and fast - The new site is lighter and faster than its predecessor!
• Tor and I2P - At last! kycnot.me is now officially on Tor and I2P!

How?

This rewrite has been a labor of love, in the end, I've been working on this for more than 3 months now. I don't have a team, so I work by myself on my free time, but I find great joy in helping people on their private journey with cryptocurrencies. Making it easier for individuals to use cryptocurrencies without KYC is a goal I am proud of!

If you appreciate my work, you can support me through the methods listed here. Alternatively, feel free to send me an email with a kind message!

Technical details

All the code is written in Golang, the website makes use of the chi router for the routing part. I also make use of BigCache for caching database requests. There is 0 JavaScript, so all the rendering load falls on the server, this means it needed to be efficient enough to not drawn with a few users since the old site was reporting about 2M requests per month on average (note that this are not unique users).

The database is running with mariadb, using gorm as the ORM. This is more than enough for this project. I started working with an sqlite database, but I ended up migrating to mariadb since it works better with JSON.

The scraper is using chromedp combined with a series of keywords, regex and other logic. It runs every 24h and scraps all the services. You can find the scraper code here.

The frontend is written using Golang Templates for the HTML, and TailwindCSS plus DaisyUI for the CSS classes framework. I also use some plain CSS, but it's minimal.

The requests forms is the only part of the project that requires JavaScript to be enabled. It is needed for parsing some from fields that are a bit complex and for the "captcha", which is a simple Proof of Work that runs on your browser, destinated to avoid spam. For this, I use mCaptcha.

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Know Your Customer is a regulation that requires companies of all sizes to verify the identity, suitability, and risks involved with maintaining a business relationship with a customer. Such procedures fit within the broader scope of anti-money laundering (AML) and counterterrorism financing (CTF) regulations.

Banks, exchanges, online business, mail providers, domain registrars... Everyone wants to know who you are before you can even opt for their service. Your personal information is flowing around the internet in the hands of "god-knows-who" and secured by "trust-me-bro military-grade encryption". Once your account is linked to your personal (and verified) identity, tracking you is just as easy as keeping logs on all these platforms.

Rights for Illusions

KYC processes aim to combat terrorist financing, money laundering, and other illicit activities. On the surface, KYC seems like a commendable initiative. I mean, who wouldn't want to halt terrorists and criminals in their tracks?

The logic behind KYC is: "If we mandate every financial service provider to identify their users, it becomes easier to pinpoint and apprehend the malicious actors."

However, terrorists and criminals are not precisely lining up to be identified. They're crafty. They may adopt false identities or find alternative strategies to continue their operations. Far from being outwitted, many times they're several steps ahead of regulations. Realistically, KYC might deter a small fraction – let's say about 1% ^1 – of these malefactors. Yet, the cost? All of us are saddled with the inconvenient process of identification just to use a service.

Under the rhetoric of "ensuring our safety", governments and institutions enact regulations that seem more out of a dystopian novel, gradually taking away our right to privacy.

To illustrate, consider a city where the mayor has rolled out facial recognition cameras in every nook and cranny. A band of criminals, intent on robbing a local store, rolls in with a stolen car, their faces obscured by masks and their bodies cloaked in all-black clothes. Once they've committed the crime and exited the city's boundaries, they switch vehicles and clothes out of the cameras' watchful eyes. The high-tech surveillance? It didn’t manage to identify or trace them. Yet, for every law-abiding citizen who merely wants to drive through the city or do some shopping, their movements and identities are constantly logged. The irony? This invasive tracking impacts all of us, just to catch the 1% ^1 of less-than-careful criminals.

KYC? Not you.

KYC creates barriers to participation in normal economic activity, to supposedly stop criminals. ^2

KYC puts barriers between many users and businesses. One of these comes from the fact that the process often requires multiple forms of identification, proof of address, and sometimes even financial records. For individuals in areas with poor record-keeping, non-recognized legal documents, or those who are unbanked, homeless or transient, obtaining these documents can be challenging, if not impossible.

For people who are not skilled with technology or just don't have access to it, there's also a barrier since KYC procedures are mostly online, leaving them inadvertently excluded.

Another barrier goes for the casual or one-time user, where they might not see the value in undergoing a rigorous KYC process, and these requirements can deter them from using the service altogether.

It also wipes some businesses out of the equation, since for smaller businesses, the costs associated with complying with KYC norms—from the actual process of gathering and submitting documents to potential delays in operations—can be prohibitive in economical and/or technical terms.

You're not welcome

Imagine a swanky new club in town with a strict "members only" sign. You hear the music, you see the lights, and you want in. You step up, ready to join, but suddenly there's a long list of criteria you must meet. After some time, you are finally checking all the boxes. But then the club rejects your membership with no clear reason why. You just weren't accepted. Frustrating, right?

This club scenario isn't too different from the fact that KYC is being used by many businesses as a convenient gatekeeping tool. A perfect excuse based on a "legal" procedure they are obliged to.

Even some exchanges may randomly use this to freeze and block funds from users, claiming these were "flagged" by a cryptic system that inspects the transactions. You are left hostage to their arbitrary decision to let you successfully pass the KYC procedure. If you choose to sidestep their invasive process, they might just hold onto your funds indefinitely.

Your identity has been stolen

KYC data has been found to be for sale on many dark net markets^3. Exchanges may have leaks or hacks, and such leaks contain very sensitive data. We're talking about the full monty: passport or ID scans, proof of address, and even those awkward selfies where you're holding up your ID next to your face. All this data is being left to the mercy of the (mostly) "trust-me-bro" security systems of such companies. Quite scary, isn't it?

As cheap as $10 for 100 documents, with discounts applying for those who buy in bulk, the personal identities of innocent users who passed KYC procedures are for sale. ^3

In short, if you have ever passed the KYC/AML process of a crypto exchange, your privacy is at risk of being compromised, or it might even have already been compromised.

(they) Know Your Coins

You may already know that Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies have a transparent public blockchain, meaning that all data is shown unencrypted for everyone to see and recorded forever. If you link an address you own to your identity through KYC, for example, by sending an amount from a KYC exchange to it, your Bitcoin is no longer pseudonymous and can then be traced.

If, for instance, you send Bitcoin from such an identified address to another KYC'ed address (say, from a friend), everyone having access to that address-identity link information (exchanges, governments, hackers, etc.) will be able to associate that transaction and know who you are transacting with.

Conclusions

To sum up, KYC does not protect individuals; rather, it's a threat to our privacy, freedom, security and integrity. Sensible information flowing through the internet is thrown into chaos by dubious security measures. It puts borders between many potential customers and businesses, and it helps governments and companies track innocent users. That's the chaos KYC has stirred.

The criminals are using stolen identities from companies that gathered them thanks to these very same regulations that were supposed to combat them. Criminals always know how to circumvent such regulations. In the end, normal people are the most affected by these policies.

The threat that KYC poses to individuals in terms of privacy, security and freedom is not to be neglected. And if we don’t start challenging these systems and questioning their efficacy, we are just one step closer to the dystopian future that is now foreseeable.

Edited 20/03/2024 * Add reference to the 1% statement on Rights for Illusions section to an article where Chainalysis found that only 0.34% of the transaction volume with cryptocurrencies in 2023 was attributable to criminal activity ^1

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Over the past few months, I've dedicated my time to a complete rewrite of the kycnot.me website. The technology stack remains unchanged; Golang paired with TailwindCSS. However, I've made some design choices in this iteration that I believe significantly enhance the site. Particularly to backend code.

UI Improvements

You'll notice a refreshed UI that retains the original concept but has some notable enhancements. The service list view is now more visually engaging, it displays additional information in a more aesthetically pleasing manner. Both filtering and searching functionalities have been optimized for speed and user experience.

Service pages have been also redesigned to highlight key information at the top, with the KYC Level box always accessible. The display of service attributes is now more visually intuitive.

The request form, especially the Captcha, has undergone substantial improvements. The new self-made Captcha is robust, addressing the reliability issues encountered with the previous version.

Terms of Service Summarizer

A significant upgrade is the Terms of Service summarizer/reviewer, now powered by AI (GPT-4-turbo). It efficiently condenses each service's ToS, extracting and presenting critical points, including any warnings. Summaries are updated monthly, processing over 40 ToS pages via the OpenAI API using a self-crafted and thoroughly tested prompt.

Nostr Comments

I've integrated a comment section for each service using Nostr. For guidance on using this feature, visit the dedicated how-to page.

Database

The backend database has transitioned to pocketbase, an open-source Golang backend that has been a pleasure to work with. I maintain an updated fork of the Golang SDK for pocketbase at pluja/pocketbase.

Scoring

The scoring algorithm has also been refined to be more fair. Despite I had considered its removal due to the complexity it adds (it is very difficult to design a fair scoring system), some users highlighted its value, so I kept it. The updated algorithm is available open source.

Listings

Each listing has been re-evaluated, and the ones that were no longer operational were removed. New additions are included, and the backlog of pending services will be addressed progressively, since I still have access to the old database.

API

The API now offers more comprehensive data. For more details, check here.

About Page

The About page has been restructured for brevity and clarity.

Other Changes

Extensive changes have been implemented in the server-side logic, since the whole code base was re-written from the ground up. I may discuss these in a future post, but for now, I consider the current version to be just a bit beyond beta, and additional updates are planned in the coming weeks.

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I'm launching a new service review section on this blog in collaboration with OrangeFren. These reviews are sponsored, yet the sponsorship does not influence the outcome of the evaluations. Reviews are done in advance, then, the service provider has the discretion to approve publication without modifications.

Sponsored reviews are independent from the kycnot.me list, being only part of the blog. The reviews have no impact on the scores of the listings or their continued presence on the list. Should any issues arise, I will not hesitate to remove any listing.

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The review

WizardSwap is an instant exchange centred around privacy coins. It was launched in 2020 making it old enough to have weathered the 2021 bull run and the subsequent bearish year.

| Pros | Cons | |------|------| | Tor-friendly | Limited liquidity | | Guarantee of no KYC | Overly simplistic design | | Earn by providing liquidity | |

Rating: ★★★★★ Service Website: wizardswap.io

Liquidity

Right off the bat, we'll start off by pointing out that WizardSwap relies on its own liquidity reserves, meaning they aren't just a reseller of Binance or another exchange. They're also committed to a no-KYC policy, when asking them, they even promised they would rather refund a user their original coins, than force them to undergo any sort of verification.

On the one hand, full control over all their infrastructure gives users the most privacy and conviction about the KYC policies remaining in place.

On the other hand, this means the liquidity available for swapping isn't huge. At the time of testing we could only purchase at most about 0.73 BTC with XMR.

It's clear the team behind WizardSwap is aware of this shortfall and so they've come up with a solution unique among instant exchanges. They let you, the user, deposit any of the currencies they support into your account and earn a profit on the trades made using your liquidity.

Trading

Fees on WizardSwap are middle-of-the-pack. The normal fee is 2.2%. That's more than some exchanges that reserve the right to suddenly demand you undergo verification, yet less than half the fees on some other privacy-first exchanges. However as we mentioned in the section above you can earn almost all of that fee (2%) if you provide liquidity to WizardSwap.

It's good that with the current Bitcoin fee market their fees are constant regardless of how much, or how little, you send. This is in stark contrast with some of the alternative swap providers that will charge you a massive premium when attempting to swap small amounts of BTC away.

Test trades

Test trades are always performed without previous notice to the service provider.

During our testing we performed a few test trades and found that every single time WizardSwap immediately detected the incoming transaction and the amount we received was exactly what was quoted before depositing. The fees were inline with what WizardSwap advertises.

• Monero payment proof
• Bitcoin received
• Wizardswap TX link - it's possible that this link may cease to be valid at some point in the future.

ToS and KYC

WizardSwap does not have a Terms of Service or a Privacy Policy page, at least none that can be found by users. Instead, they offer a FAQ section where they addresses some basic questions.

The site does not mention any KYC or AML practices. It also does not specify how refunds are handled in case of failure. However, based on the FAQ section "What if I send funds after the offer expires?" it can be inferred that contacting support is necessary and network fees will be deducted from any refund.

UI & Tor

WizardSwap can be visited both via your usual browser and Tor Browser. Should you decide on the latter you'll find that the website works even with the most strict settings available in the Tor Browser (meaning no JavaScript).

However, when disabling Javascript you'll miss the live support chat, as well as automatic refreshing of the trade page. The lack of the first means that you will have no way to contact support from the trade page if anything goes wrong during your swap, although you can do so by mail.

One important thing to have in mind is that if you were to accidentally close the browser during the swap, and you did not save the swap ID or your browser history is disabled, you'll have no easy way to return to the trade. For this reason we suggest when you begin a trade to copy the url or ID to someplace safe, before sending any coins to WizardSwap.

The UI you'll be greeted by is simple, minimalist, and easy to navigate. It works well not just across browsers, but also across devices. You won't have any issues using this exchange on your phone.

Getting in touch

The team behind WizardSwap appears to be most active on X (formerly Twitter): https://twitter.com/WizardSwap_io

If you have any comments or suggestions about the exchange make sure to reach out to them. In the past they've been very receptive to user feedback, for instance a few months back WizardSwap was planning on removing DeepOnion, but the community behind that project got together ^1 and after reaching out WizardSwap reversed their decision ^2.

You can also contact them via email at: support @ wizardswap . io

Disclaimer

None of the above should be understood as investment or financial advice. The views are our own only and constitute a faithful representation of our experience in using and investigating this exchange. This review is not a guarantee of any kind on the services rendered by the exchange. Do your own research before using any service.

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Bitcoin enthusiasts frequently and correctly remark how much value it adds to Bitcoin not to have a face, a leader, or a central authority behind it. This particularity means there isn't a single person to exert control over, or a single human point of failure who could become corrupt or harmful to the project.

Because of this, it is said that no other coin can be equally valuable as Bitcoin in terms of decentralization and trustworthiness. Bitcoin is unique not just for being first, but also because of how the events behind its inception developed. This implies that, from Bitcoin onwards, any coin created would have been created by someone, consequently having an authority behind it. For this and some other reasons, some people refer to Bitcoin as "The Immaculate Conception".

While other coins may have their own unique features and advantages, they may not be able to replicate Bitcoin's community-driven nature. However, one other cryptocurrency shares a similar story of mystery behind its creation: Monero.

History of Monero

Bytecoin and CryptoNote

In March 2014, a Bitcointalk thread titled "Bytecoin. Secure, private, untraceable since 2012" was initiated by a user under the nickname "DStrange"^1^. DStrange presented Bytecoin (BCN) as a unique cryptocurrency, in operation since July 2012. Unlike Bitcoin, it employed a new algorithm known as CryptoNote.

DStrange apparently stumbled upon the Bytecoin website by chance while mining a dying bitcoin fork, and decided to create a thread on Bitcointalk^1^. This sparked curiosity among some users, who wondered how could Bytecoin remain unnoticed since its alleged launch in 2012 until then^2^.

Some time after, a user brought up the "CryptoNote v2.0" whitepaper for the first time, underlining its innovative features^4^. Authored by the pseudonymous Nicolas van Saberhagen in October 2013, the CryptoNote v2 whitepaper^5^ highlighted the traceability and privacy problems in Bitcoin. Saberhagen argued that these flaws could not be quickly fixed, suggesting it would be more efficient to start a new project rather than trying to patch the original^5^, an statement simmilar to the one from Satoshi Nakamoto^6^.

Checking with Saberhagen's digital signature, the release date of the whitepaper seemed correct, which would mean that Cryptonote (v1) was created in 2012^7^, although there's an important detail: "Signing time is from the clock on the signer's computer" ^9^.

Moreover, the whitepaper v1 contains a footnote link to a Bitcointalk post dated May 5, 2013^10^, making it impossible for the whitepaper to have been signed and released on December 12, 2012.

As the narrative developed, users discovered that a significant 80% portion of Bytecoin had been pre-mined^11^ and blockchain dates seemed to be faked to make it look like it had been operating since 2012, leading to controversy surrounding the project.

The origins of CryptoNote and Bytecoin remain mysterious, leaving suspicions of a possible scam attempt, although the whitepaper had a good amount of work and thought on it.

The fork

In April 2014, the Bitcointalk user thankful_for_today, who had also participated in the Bytecoin thread^12^, announced plans to launch a Bytecoin fork named Bitmonero^13^.

The primary motivation behind this fork was "Because there is a number of technical and marketing issues I wanted to do differently. And also because I like ideas and technology and I want it to succeed"^14^. This time Bitmonero did things different from Bytecoin: there was no premine or instamine, and no portion of the block reward went to development.

However, thankful_for_today proposed controversial changes that the community disagreed with. Johnny Mnemonic relates the events surrounding Bitmonero and thankful_for_today in a Bitcointalk comment^15^:

When thankful_for_today launched BitMonero [...] he ignored everything that was discussed and just did what he wanted. The block reward was considerably steeper than what everyone was expecting. He also moved forward with 1-minute block times despite everyone's concerns about the increase of orphan blocks. He also didn't address the tail emission concern that should've (in my opinion) been in the code at launch time. Basically, he messed everything up. Then, he disappeared.

After disappearing for a while, thankful_for_today returned to find that the community had taken over the project. Johnny Mnemonic continues:

I, and others, started working on new forks that were closer to what everyone else was hoping for. [...] it was decided that the BitMonero project should just be taken over. There were like 9 or 10 interested parties at the time if my memory is correct. We voted on IRC to drop the "bit" from BitMonero and move forward with the project. Thankful_for_today suddenly resurfaced, and wasn't happy to learn the community had assumed control of the coin. He attempted to maintain his own fork (still calling it "BitMonero") for a while, but that quickly fell into obscurity.

The unfolding of these events show us the roots of Monero. Much like Satoshi Nakamoto, the creators behind CryptoNote/Bytecoin and thankful_for_today remain a mystery^17^, having disappeared without a trace. This enigma only adds to Monero's value.

Since community took over development, believing in the project's potential and its ability to be guided in a better direction, Monero was given one of Bitcoin's most important qualities: a leaderless nature. With no single face or entity directing its path, Monero is safe from potential corruption or harm from a "central authority".

The community continued developing Monero until today. Since then, Monero has undergone a lot of technological improvements, migrations and achievements such as RingCT and RandomX. It also has developed its own Community Crowdfundinc System, conferences such as MoneroKon and Monerotopia are taking place every year, and has a very active community around it.

Monero continues to develop with goals of privacy and security first, ease of use and efficiency second. ^16^

This stands as a testament to the power of a dedicated community operating without a central figure of authority. This decentralized approach aligns with the original ethos of cryptocurrency, making Monero a prime example of community-driven innovation. For this, I thank all the people involved in Monero, that lead it to where it is today.

If you find any information that seems incorrect, unclear or any missing important events, please contact me and I will make the necessary changes.

Sources of interest

• https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/211/history-of-monero
• https://monero.stackexchange.com/questions/852/what-is-the-origin-of-monero-and-its-relationship-to-bytecoin
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monero
• https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0
• https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=563821.0
• https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=233561
• https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=512747.0
• https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=740112.0
• https://monero.stackexchange.com/a/1024
• https://inspec2t-project.eu/cryptocurrency-with-a-focus-on-anonymity-these-facts-are-known-about-monero/
• https://medium.com/coin-story/coin-perspective-13-riccardo-spagni-69ef82907bd1
• https://www.getmonero.org/resources/about/
• https://www.wired.com/2017/01/monero-drug-dealers-cryptocurrency-choice-fire/
• https://www.monero.how/why-monero-vs-bitcoin
• https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/u8e5yr/satoshi_nakamoto_talked_about_privacy_features/

@ 39cc53c9:27168656

Read the original blog post

“The future is there... staring back at us. Trying to make sense of the fiction we will have become.” — William Gibson.

This month is the 4th anniversary of kycnot.me. Thank you for being here.

Fifteen years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin, a peer-to-peer electronic cash system: a decentralized currency free from government and institutional control. Nakamoto's whitepaper showed a vision for a financial system based on trustless transactions, secured by cryptography. Some time forward and KYC (Know Your Customer), AML (Anti-Money Laundering), and CTF (Counter-Terrorism Financing) regulations started to come into play.

What a paradox: to engage with a system designed for decentralization, privacy, and independence, we are forced to give away our personal details. Using Bitcoin in the economy requires revealing your identity, not just to the party you interact with, but also to third parties who must track and report the interaction. You are forced to give sensitive data to entities you don't, can't, and shouldn't trust. Information can never be kept 100% safe; there's always a risk. Information is power, who knows about you has control over you.

Information asymmetry creates imbalances of power. When entities have detailed knowledge about individuals, they can manipulate, influence, or exploit this information to their advantage. The accumulation of personal data by corporations and governments enables extensive surveillances.

Such practices, moreover, exclude individuals from traditional economic systems if their documentation doesn't meet arbitrary standards, reinforcing a dystopian divide. Small businesses are similarly burdened by the costs of implementing these regulations, hindering free market competition^1:

How will they keep this information safe? Why do they need my identity? Why do they force businesses to enforce such regulations? It's always for your safety, to protect you from the "bad". Your life is perpetually in danger: terrorists, money launderers, villains... so the government steps in to save us.

‟Hush now, baby, baby, don't you cry Mamma's gonna make all of your nightmares come true Mamma's gonna put all of her fears into you Mamma's gonna keep you right here, under her wing She won't let you fly, but she might let you sing Mamma's gonna keep baby cosy and warm” — Mother, Pink Floyd

We must resist any attack on our privacy and freedom. To do this, we must collaborate.

If you have a service, refuse to ask for KYC; find a way. Accept cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Monero. Commit to circular economies. Remove the need to go through the FIAT system. People need fiat money to use most services, but we can change that.

If you're a user, donate to and prefer using services that accept such currencies. Encourage your friends to accept cryptocurrencies as well. Boycott FIAT system to the greatest extent you possibly can.

This may sound utopian, but it can be achieved. This movement can't be stopped. Go kick the hornet's nest.

“We must defend our own privacy if we expect to have any. We must come together and create systems which allow anonymous transactions to take place. People have been defending their own privacy for centuries with whispers, darkness, envelopes, closed doors, secret handshakes, and couriers. The technologies of the past did not allow for strong privacy, but electronic technologies do.” — Eric Hughes, A Cypherpunk's Manifesto

The anniversary

Four years ago, I began exploring ways to use crypto without KYC. I bookmarked a few favorite services and thought sharing them to the world might be useful. That was the first version of kycnot.me — a simple list of about 15 services. Since then, I've added services, rewritten it three times, and improved it to what it is now.

kycnot.me has remained 100% independent and 100% open source^2 all these years. I've received offers to buy the site, all of which I have declined and will continue to decline. It has been DDoS attacked many times, but we made it through. I have also rewritten the whole site almost once per year (three times in four years).

The code and scoring algorithm are open source (contributions are welcome) and I can't arbitrarly change a service's score without adding or removing attributes, making any arbitrary alterations obvious if they were fake. You can even see the score summary for any service's score.

I'm a one-person team, dedicating my free time to this project. I hope to keep doing so for many more years. Again, thank you for being part of this.

@ a93d7cd3:ae5ce5dd

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 Customizable Flash Durations: Control your transaction lifespan precisely, from 60 to 360 days.

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![[0B745064-2D34-4A3C-8393-AD033910E6D7.jpeg]]![[0C3FA837-E1BA-497F-8D44-9EC1CD723970.jpeg]]

@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

Since its creation in 2008, Bitcoin has been seen as a direct challenge to the traditional banking system. Developed as a decentralized alternative to fiat money, Bitcoin offers a way to store and transfer value without relying on banks, governments, or other financial institutions. This characteristic has made it a symbol of resistance against a financial system that, over time, has been marked by crises, manipulation, and restrictions imposed on citizens.

The 2008 financial crisis and the birth of Bitcoin

Bitcoin emerged in response to the 2008 financial crisis—a collapse that exposed the flaws of the global banking system. Central banks printed massive amounts of money to bail out irresponsible financial institutions, while millions of people lost their homes, savings, and jobs. In this context, Bitcoin was created as an alternative financial system, where no central authority could manipulate the economy for its own benefit.

In the first block of the Bitcoin blockchain or timechain, Satoshi Nakamoto included the following message:

“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.”

This phrase, taken from a newspaper headline of the time, symbolizes Bitcoin’s intent to offer a financial system beyond the control of banks and governments.

• Key reasons why Bitcoin resists the banking system

01 - Decentralization: Unlike money issued by central banks, Bitcoin cannot be created or controlled by any single entity. The network of users validates transactions transparently and independently.

02 - Limited Supply: While central banks can print money without limit—causing inflation and currency devaluation—Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million units, making it resistant to artificial depreciation.

03 - Censorship Resistance: Banks can freeze accounts and block transactions at any time. With Bitcoin, anyone can send and receive funds without needing permission from third parties.

04 - Self-Custody: Instead of entrusting funds to a bank, Bitcoin users can store their own coins without the risk of account freezes or bank failures.

• Conflict between banks and Bitcoin

01 - Media Attacks: Large financial institutions often label Bitcoin as risky, volatile, or useless, attempting to discourage its adoption.

02 - Regulation and Crackdowns: Some governments, influenced by the banking sector, have implemented restrictions on Bitcoin usage, making it harder to buy and sell.

03 - Creation of Centralized Alternatives: Many central banks are developing digital currencies (CBDCs) that maintain control over digital money but do not offer Bitcoin’s freedom and decentralization.

In summary, Bitcoin is not just a digital currency—it is a movement of resistance against a financial system that has repeatedly failed to protect ordinary citizens. By offering a decentralized, transparent, and censorship-resistant alternative, Bitcoin represents financial freedom and challenges the banking monopoly over money. As long as the traditional banking system continues to impose restrictions and control the flow of capital, Bitcoin will remain a symbol of independence and financial sovereignty.

Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

@ bd4ae3e6:1dfb81f5

@ bd4ae3e6:1dfb81f5

@ 98912a0b:c1f46ab6

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อิคิไก (Ikigai) แปลว่า ความหมายของการมีชีวิตอยู่ เหตุผลของการมีชีวิตอยู่ เราเกิดมาเพื่ออะไร ใช้ชีวิตอยู่ไปทำไม เมื่อการงานไม่ใช่สิ่งที่แปลกแยกจากชีวิต

คนญี่ปุ่นเชื่อว่าทุกคนมี ikigai ของตัวเอง ผู้ที่ค้นพบ ikigai จะเจอความหมายและคุณค่าของชีวิต ทำให้มีความสุขกว่า อารมณ์ดีกว่า และมีโลกที่น่าอยู่กว่าด้วย

ปัจจุบัน มีหนังสือเกี่ยวกับอิคิไกออกวางขายเป็นจำนวนมาก แต่เล่มที่คนญี่ปุ่นเป็นคนเขียนเล่มแรกนั้น คือ

• The Little Book of Ikigai : The secret Japanese way to live a happy and long life โดยอาจารย์เคน โมหงิ (แปลภาษาไทยโดย คุณวุฒิชัย กฤษณะประการกิจ)

ตามมาสัมผัสโลกของอิคิไกที่แท้จริงจากนักวิทยาศาสตร์วิจัยด้านสมองชาวญี่ปุ่นคนนี้ ผ่านบทสนทนาที่จะเปลี่ยนความคิดใหม่ที่ว่า 'อิคิไก' เริ่มต้นจากมองหาความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ในแบบของตัวเราเอง

อาจารย์เคน โมหงิว่า ปู่จิโร่ เชฟซูชิวัย 94 ปี ที่ยังยืนปั้นซูชิให้เราทานอยู่ในทุกวันนี้ เป็นแรงบันดาลใจให้อาจารย์เกิดไอเดียในการเขียนหนังสืออิคิไก

เชฟซูชิที่ ‘ไม่ได้’ เริ่มเลือกงานนี้เพราะความรักหรือความถนัด แต่กลับทุ่มเทปั้นซูชิทุกคำเพื่อให้ลูกค้ามีความสุข… นั่นคือต้นแบบของอิคิไก

น่าแปลกที่คนญี่ปุ่นไม่ค่อยใช้คำว่า ‘อิคิไก’ ในชีวิตประจำวันหรือบทสนทนาทั่วไปเท่าไหร่

เพราะมันเป็นสิ่งที่ปกติและเราทำกันตามธรรมชาติ ในโลกปัจจุบัน เรามักพูดกันว่าทำอย่างไรเราถึงจะประสบความสำเร็จ ทำอย่างไรจะได้เลื่อนตำแหน่ง หากอยากเป็น CEO จะเป็นได้อย่างไร แต่คนญี่ปุ่นมีความคิดว่าความสำเร็จไม่ใช่ทุกอย่างในชีวิต

ยกตัวอย่างเช่นมีคนญี่ปุ่นจำนวนมากที่จริงจังกับงานอดิเรก หรือมี โคดาวาริ* คนอื่นไม่สนหรอกว่างานอดิเรกของคนคนนั้นจะเป็นอะไร ตราบใดที่คนคนนั้นดูมีความสุขดีนั่นก็โอเคแล้ว มีคนจำนวนมากคลั่งไคล้รถไฟ มังงะ (หนังสือการ์ตูน) หรือแอนิเมะ (ภาพยนตร์การ์ตูน) คนเหล่านี้ไม่จำเป็นต้องมีชื่อเสียงหรือได้รับการยอมรับจากสังคม ตราบเท่าที่พวกเขามีความสุขในแบบของเขาเอง มันก็ดีแล้ว

• ความพิถีพิถันใส่ใจในบางเรื่องเป็นพิเศษ เช่น คนที่ชอบเครื่องเขียนมากๆ จะพิถีพิถันในการเลือกปากกา สมุด ดินสอที่ตนเองจะใช้ เพราะฉะนั้น คนที่มีโคดาวาริเหล่านี้จะศึกษาเครื่องเขียนจนถึงที่สุด วิเคราะห์ ทดลอง จนพบว่าเครื่องเขียนแบบใดที่ตนเองหลงใหลที่สุด

อิคิไกของแต่ละคนอาจแตกต่างกัน ต่างคนอาจมีค่านิยมที่ต่างกัน ซึ่งสะท้อนในรูปแบบชีวิตที่แตกต่างกันก็ได้

อิคิไกเป็นเรื่องของความหลากหลายนะ สังคมญี่ปุ่นพยายามผลักดันให้เด็กๆ ทุกคนตามหาอิคิไกของตนเอง เราจะไม่บอกว่า งานนี้เงินดี ทำสิ หรืองานนี้เงินน้อย อย่าไปทำเลย ถ้าคุณถามนักศึกษาว่า พวกเขาอยากทำงานอะไร พวกเขาคงไม่ตอบว่าเลือกทำที่บริษัทนี้เพราะเงินเป็นอันดับแรกหรอก

อิคิไกแตกต่างจากคำว่า ‘ความสำเร็จ’ คนญี่ปุ่นรู้ว่าชีวิตไม่ได้มีแค่เรื่องประสบความสำเร็จ อิคิไกสำคัญกับชีวิตมากกว่า คุณอาจจะประสบความสำเร็จ แต่คุณอาจไม่มีอิคิไก ในทางกลับกัน แม้คุณไม่ประสบความสำเร็จ คุณอาจจะมีอิคิไกก็ได้ ซึ่งชีวิตคุณอาจจะมีความสุขมากกว่า

อาจารย์เคน โมหงินิยามคำว่า ‘ความสำเร็จ’ คือสิ่งที่คุณจะได้รับการยอมรับจากคนในสังคมหรือบริบทสังคมนั้นๆ แต่อิคิไกมาจากหัวใจของคุณ มาจากความสุขส่วนตัวของคุณ คนอื่นอาจจะไม่ได้มองว่านั่นคือความสำเร็จ

อิคิไกเป็นสิ่งที่เฉพาะบุคคล เราสามารถมีความสุขในแบบของเราเอง เราไม่ตัดสินความสุขของคนอื่น และให้เขามีความสุขในแบบของเขาเอง…

สิ่งสำคัญของอิคิไกคือ คุณมีความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ จากเรื่องที่ดูเหมือนเป็นเรื่องเล็กๆ น้อยๆ หรือเปล่า เช่น ตอนเด็กๆ ผมชอบศึกษาเกี่ยวกับผีเสื้อ เวลาผมไปวิ่งออกกำลังกายแล้วเห็นผีเสื้อสวยๆ ผมก็สัมผัสได้ถึงอิคิไก หรือบางทีอาจเกิดขึ้นตอนที่ผมรู้สึกตลกๆ ก็ได้ ผมเห็นเด็กผู้ชายคนหนึ่งบอกพ่อว่า “พ่อๆ ต้องทำอย่างนี้สิ” เวลาผมได้ยินบทสนทนาแบบนี้ ผมก็รู้สึกถึงอิคิไก

หากพวกเราอยากมีอิคิไกบ้าง เราควรเริ่มจากอะไรดี ? เริ่มจากการสัมผัสความสุขจากสิ่งเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ก่อน มันเริ่มทำได้ง่ายที่สุด ในสมองเรามีสารชื่อโดพามีน หากเราทำอะไรสำเร็จเล็กๆ น้อยๆ โดพามีนจะหลั่งออกมา วงจรนั้นจะช่วยทำให้คุณมีความสุข การมีความสุขกับสิ่งเล็กๆ เช่นนี้เป็นเรื่องสำคัญมาก สำหรับหลายคน แนวคิดเรื่องอิคิไกอาจเข้าใจยาก หรือยากสำหรับบางคนที่ชีวิตพวกเขากำลังอยู่ในช่วงยากลำบาก กำลังรู้สึกหมดหวัง ท้อแท้ หรือไม่ได้เคารพตนเอง เพราะฉะนั้น เริ่มจากความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ก่อนครับ

มันเหมือนการคิดบวกไหม ? อิคิไกเป็นส่วนหนึ่งนะ เวลาเราคิดถึงชีวิต หรือคิดหาวิธีการคิดบวก มันเป็นเรื่องที่ซับซ้อนมาก สำหรับบางคนคำว่า ‘คิดบวก’ อาจฟังดูกดดันสำหรับพวกเขา เพราะฉะนั้น เริ่มจากการมองเห็นความสุขจากสิ่งเล็กๆ น้อยๆ รอบตัว สิ่งเล็กมากๆ เช่นการได้ตื่นมาชงกาแฟดื่ม การได้วิ่งกลางสายฝน

Lesson from Ken Mogi 1. อิคิไก ไม่ใช่การแสวงหาความสำเร็จหรือความร่ำรวย แต่เป็นการรู้สึกหรือสัมผัสถึงความสุขในชีวิตของตนเอง จนทำให้เราเห็นความหมายของชีวิตเราในแบบของเรา 2. อิคิไกไม่ใช่สิ่งที่สังคมนิยามหรือโลกให้ความสำคัญ แต่ละคนมีอิคิไกที่แตกต่างกัน และมีความสุขกับชีวิตในแบบของตนเอง ที่เราเลือกเอง 3. เราไม่ควรตัดสินคนอื่นหรือบีบบังคับคนอื่น เช่น ลูก แฟน ให้ใช้ชีวิตในแบบที่เราคิดว่าใช่ แต่เราควรเคารพความหลากหลายนั้น 4. มองคนที่มีอิคิไกหรือกำลังสนุกกับสิ่งที่พวกเขารักด้วยรอยยิ้ม และคอยช่วยเหลือหากพวกเขาลำบาก 5. อิคิไกมีทั้งระดับใหญ่ ซึ่งเกี่ยวกับแนวทางชีวิตหรือคุณค่าของงาน และอิคิไกระดับเล็กคือการสัมผัสความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ที่พบเห็นได้ในชีวิตประจำวัน 6. อิคิไก เริ่มต้นจากมองหาความสุขเล็กๆ น้อยๆ ในวันนี้

ที่มา : จากคอลัมน์ Cloud of Thoughts บทสัมภาษณ์ของอ.เกตุวดี Marumura พาไปคุยกับอาจารย์เคน โมหงิ ผู้เขียนหนังสืออิคิไกเล่มแรก!

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Deliberate (?) trade-offs we make for the sake of output speed.

... By sacrificing depth in my learning, I can produce substantially more work. I’m unsure if I’m at the correct balance between output quantity and depth of learning. This uncertainty is mainly fueled by a sense of urgency due to rapidly improving AI models. I don’t have time to learn everything deeply. I love learning, but given current trends, I want to maximize immediate output. I’m sacrificing some learning in classes for more time doing outside work. From a teacher’s perspective, this is obviously bad, but from my subjective standpoint, it’s unclear.

Finding the balance between learning and productivity. By trade, one cannot be productive in specific areas without first acquire the knowledge to define the processes needed to deliver. Designing the process often come on a try and fail dynamic that force us to learn from previous mistakes.

I found this little journal story fun but also little sad. Vincent's realization, one of us trading his learnings to be more productive, asking what is productivity without quality assurance?

Inevitably, parts of my brain will degenerate and fade away, so I need to consciously decide what I want to preserve or my entire brain will be gone. What skills am I NOT okay with offloading? What do I want to do myself?

Read Vincent's journal https://vvvincent.me/llms-are-making-me-dumber/

https://stacker.news/items/984361

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Digital Psychology ↗

Wall of impact website showcase a collection of success metrics and micro case studies to create a clear, impactful visual of your brand's achievements. It also displays a Wall of love with an abundance of testimonials in one place, letting the sheer volume highlight your brand's popularity and customer satisfaction.

And like these, many others collections like Testimonial mashup that combine multiple testimonials into a fast-paced, engaging reel that highlights key moments of impact in an attention-grabbing format.

Awards and certifications of websites highlighting third-party ratings and verification to signal trust and quality through industry-recognized achievements and standards.

View them all at https://socialproofexamples.com/

https://stacker.news/items/984357

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Em uma sociedade verdadeiramente livre, o indivíduo tem o direito de escolher como guardar e transferir valor. Isso inclui a liberdade de escolher qual moeda usar, sem coerção, monopólios ou imposições estatais. A concorrência entre moedas permite que as melhores propriedades monetárias prevaleçam de forma natural e voluntária.

Moeda imposta é controle

Quando uma única moeda é forçada por lei, seja por decreto estatal ou por exigências institucionais, o usuário perde a soberania sobre seu próprio patrimônio. Isso abre espaço para inflação arbitrária, bloqueios de transações, congelamento de fundos e vigilância massiva.

Concorrência monetária é essencial

A liberdade monetária implica a coexistência de várias moedas competindo entre si. Cada uma traz suas características e vantagens específicas. A escolha deve estar nas mãos do usuário, não em autoridades centralizadas.

A melhor moeda tende a se tornar o padrão

No longo prazo, a moeda com melhores propriedades monetárias, como previsibilidade, descentralização, auditabilidade e liquidez, tende a ser adotada como padrão de referência para precificação, poupança e comércio global.

O Bitcoin é a moeda mais forte nesse sentido. Mas isso não impede que outras moedas coexistam como ferramentas complementares em contextos específicos.

Conversão é liberdade

Se o usuário quiser por exemplo mais privacidade ao comprar um café ou pagar uma conta, ele pode facilmente trocar seus bitcoins por monero e usá-los conforme sua necessidade. A possibilidade de trocar entre moedas é parte essencial da liberdade financeira.

Uma sociedade livre permite a escolha. O padrão monetário deve emergir do consenso do mercado, não de imposições. Que o Bitcoin se torne o padrão não por decreto, mas por mérito. E que outras moedas existam para servir à liberdade individual em toda sua complexidade.

@ 6e0ea5d6:0327f353

**Ascolta bene! ** A man's sentimental longing, though often disguised in noble language and imagination, is a sickness—not a virtue.

It begins as a slight inclination toward tenderness, cloaked in sweetness. Then it reveals itself as a masked addiction: a constant need to be seen by a woman, validated by her, and reciprocated—as if someone else's affection were the only anchor preventing the shipwreck of his emotions.

The man who understands the weight of leadership seeks no applause, no gratitude, not even romantic love. He knows that his role is not theatrical but structural. He is not measured by the emotion he evokes, but by the stability he ensures. Being a true man is not ornamental. He is not a decorative symbol in the family frame.

We live in an era where male roles have been distorted by an overindulgence in emotion. The man stopped guiding and began asking for direction. His firmness was exchanged for softness, his decisiveness for hesitation. Trying to please, many have given up authority. Trying to love, they’ve begun to bow. A man who begs for validation within his own home is not a leader—he is a guest. And when the patriarch has to ask for a seat at the table he should preside over and sustain, something has already been irreversibly inverted.

Unexamined longing turns into pleading. And all begging is the antechamber of humiliation. A man who never learned to cultivate dignified solitude will inevitably fall to his knees in desperation. And then, he yields. Yields to mediocre presence, to shallow affection, to constant disrespect. He smiles while he bleeds, praises the one who despises him, accepts crumbs and pretends it’s a banquet. All of it, cazzo... just to avoid the horror of being alone.

Davvero, amico mio, for the men who beg for romance, only the consolation of being remembered will remain—not with respect, but with pity and disgust.

The modern world feeds the fragile with illusions, but reality spits them out. Sentimental longing is now celebrated as sensitivity. But every man who nurtures it as an excuse will, sooner or later, pay for it with his dignity.

Thank you for reading, my friend!

If this message resonated with you, consider leaving your "🥃" as a token of appreciation.

A toast to our family!

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พอพูดถึงบริษัทอย่าง Formo ที่ทำชีสโดยไม่ใช้วัวเลย คนส่วนใหญ่จะนึกถึงคำว่า “นวัตกรรม” “ยั่งยืน” “ลดโลกร้อน” กันเป็นด่านแรก แต่พอเฮียมองทะลุม่านควันพวกนี้ไป จะเห็นทุนรายใหญ่ที่หนุนหลังอยู่ ซึ่งหลายเจ้าก็ไม่ใช่ผู้พิทักษ์โลก แต่เป็นผู้เล่นตัวจี๊ดในอุตสาหกรรมอาหารโลกมายาวนาน

หนึ่งในนั้นคือบริษัทจากเกาหลีใต้ชื่อ CJ CheilJedang ซึ่งอาจฟังดูไกลตัว แต่จริงๆ แล้ว เฮียว่าชื่อนี้โผล่ตามซองอาหารสำเร็จรูปในครัวคนไทยหลายบ้านโดยไม่รู้ตัว

ถ้าจะเข้าใจ Formo ให้ถึงแก่น เราต้องมองไปถึงทุนที่ “ใส่เงิน” และ “ใส่จุดยืน” ลงไปในบริษัทนั้น และหนึ่งในผู้ถือหุ้นรายสำคัญก็คือ CJ CheilJedang บริษัทเกาหลีใต้ที่ก่อตั้งมาตั้งแต่ปี 1953 โดยเริ่มจากการเป็นโรงงานผลิตน้ำตาล จากนั้นก็กินรวบแทบทุกวงจรอาหารของเกาหลี

โปรไฟล์ CJ แค่เห็นภาพรวมก็ขนลุกแล้วครับ ลูกพี่เราแข็งแกร่งขนาดไหน - เป็นเจ้าของแบรนด์ Bibigo ที่เราอาจจะคุ้นในสินค้า กิมจิ และ CJ Foods ที่มีขายทั่วโลก -เป็นผู้ผลิต กรดอะมิโน รายใหญ่ของโลก เช่น ไลซีน, ทรีโอนีน, ทริปโตแฟน ที่ใช้เป็นวัตถุดิบในอาหารสัตว์ แต่ตอนนี้หลายบริษัทเอาไปใส่ใน Plant-based food แล้วเคลมว่าเป็นโปรตีนสมบูรณ์ -เป็นเจ้าของโรงงานผลิต แบคทีเรียสายพันธุ์พิเศษ สำหรับการหมักหลายประเภท -ขึ้นชื่อเรื่อง bioscience โดยเฉพาะ precision fermentation ซึ่งเป็นเทคโนโลยีเดียวกับที่ Formo ใช้ผลิตเคซีน (โปรตีนในนมวัว)

แปลว่า CJ ไม่ได้มาลงทุนใน Formo แบบ “หวังผลกำไรเฉยๆ” แต่เขามองเห็น “อนาคตใหม่ของอาหาร” ที่ตัวเองจะเป็นเจ้าของต้นน้ำยันปลายน้ำ

คำถามก็คือเบื้องลึกการลงทุนใน Formo ใครได้อะไร? Formo ปิดรอบระดมทุน Series A ได้ประมาณ 50 ล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐ เมื่อปี 2021 โดยมีนักลงทุนหลายเจ้า เช่น EQT Ventures, Elevat3 Capital, Atomico แต่ CJ CheilJedang ก็เป็นหนึ่งในผู้ลงทุนเชิงกลยุทธ์ (strategic investor) ที่เข้ามาแบบไม่ใช่แค่ลงเงิน แต่เอา เทคโนโลยี + เครือข่ายโรงงาน + ซัพพลายเชนระดับโลก มาเสริมให้ Formo ขยายได้เร็วขึ้น

การจับมือกันครั้งนี้มีนัยยะสำคัญครับ -Formo ได้ เทคโนโลยีหมักจุลินทรีย์ (ที่ CJ ถนัดมาก) และช่องทางกระจายสินค้าในเอเชีย -CJ ได้ ถือหุ้นในบริษัทที่กำลังจะเปลี่ยนภาพ “ผลิตภัณฑ์จากนม” ให้กลายเป็นสิ่งที่ไม่ต้องมีสัตว์อีกต่อไป ซึ่งจะเป็นกลยุทธ์สำคัญในการสร้างแบรนด์อาหารแห่งอนาคต ที่นมจะต้องมาจากโรงงานผลิตเท่านั้นจึงจะมีคุณสมบัติที่ดีทั้งสารอาหารและความสะอาด

CJ เองก็เคยประกาศต่อสื่อว่า อยากเป็น “Global Lifestyle Company” ซึ่งฟังดูเบาๆ แต่จริงๆ คือแผนใหญ่ในการ เปลี่ยนวิธีการกินของคนทั้งโลกได้เลยเช่นกัน -จาก “อาหารจริง” ไปเป็น “อาหารสังเคราะห์” (synthetic food) -จาก “ฟาร์มสัตว์” ไปเป็น “ถังหมักจุลินทรีย์” -จาก “ความหลากหลายตามธรรมชาติ” ไปเป็น “สูตรกลาง” ที่ควบคุมได้ในระดับโมเลกุล

การหนุนหลัง Formo จึงไม่ใช่เรื่องบังเอิญ แต่เป็นอีกหนึ่งหมากในกระดานใหญ่ที่ CJ วางไว้ เพื่อเป็นเจ้าของอาหารอนาคตแบบไม่ต้องเลี้ยงหมู ไก่ วัว แต่ครองเทคโนโลยีแทน

คำถามคือแล้วผู้บริโภคจะรู้ทันไหมว่า เบื้องหลังชีสที่ไม่มีวัว อาจมี “ทุนที่อยากครองโลกอาหาร” คำที่เคลมว่า “ยั่งยืน” อาจสร้างระบบอาหารใหม่ที่ยิ่งห่างจากธรรมชาติเข้าไปทุกที

คนที่เคย “กลัวสารเคมี” ในอาหารแปรรูป กลับกลืนผลิตภัณฑ์จากห้องแล็บ โดยคิดว่า “มันคือความสะอาดและอนาคต” #pirateketo #กูต้องรู้มั๊ย #ม้วนหางสิลูก #siamstr

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testee

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https://curtlink.com/user/login powerdigital f1950610#@

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enter in leaders group https://chat.whatsapp.com/EhI9fGsMbGPHd2cF5KQwC9

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teste

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It's my first post

@ 4ba8e86d:89d32de4

O que é Cwtch? Cwtch (/kʊtʃ/ - uma palavra galesa que pode ser traduzida aproximadamente como “um abraço que cria um lugar seguro”) é um protocolo de mensagens multipartidário descentralizado, que preserva a privacidade, que pode ser usado para construir aplicativos resistentes a metadados.

Como posso pronunciar Cwtch? Como "kutch", para rimar com "butch".

Descentralizado e Aberto : Não existe “serviço Cwtch” ou “rede Cwtch”. Os participantes do Cwtch podem hospedar seus próprios espaços seguros ou emprestar sua infraestrutura para outras pessoas que buscam um espaço seguro. O protocolo Cwtch é aberto e qualquer pessoa é livre para criar bots, serviços e interfaces de usuário e integrar e interagir com o Cwtch.

Preservação de privacidade : toda a comunicação no Cwtch é criptografada de ponta a ponta e ocorre nos serviços cebola Tor v3.

Resistente a metadados : O Cwtch foi projetado de forma que nenhuma informação seja trocada ou disponibilizada a ninguém sem seu consentimento explícito, incluindo mensagens durante a transmissão e metadados de protocolo

Uma breve história do bate-papo resistente a metadados Nos últimos anos, a conscientização pública sobre a necessidade e os benefícios das soluções criptografadas de ponta a ponta aumentou com aplicativos como Signal , Whatsapp e Wire. que agora fornecem aos usuários comunicações seguras.

No entanto, essas ferramentas exigem vários níveis de exposição de metadados para funcionar, e muitos desses metadados podem ser usados ​​para obter detalhes sobre como e por que uma pessoa está usando uma ferramenta para se comunicar.

Uma ferramenta que buscou reduzir metadados é o Ricochet lançado pela primeira vez em 2014. Ricochet usou os serviços cebola Tor v2 para fornecer comunicação criptografada segura de ponta a ponta e para proteger os metadados das comunicações.

Não havia servidores centralizados que auxiliassem no roteamento das conversas do Ricochet. Ninguém além das partes envolvidas em uma conversa poderia saber que tal conversa está ocorrendo.

Ricochet tinha limitações; não havia suporte para vários dispositivos, nem existe um mecanismo para suportar a comunicação em grupo ou para um usuário enviar mensagens enquanto um contato está offline.

Isto tornou a adoção do Ricochet uma proposta difícil; mesmo aqueles em ambientes que seriam melhor atendidos pela resistência aos metadados, sem saber que ela existe.

Além disso, qualquer solução para comunicação descentralizada e resistente a metadados enfrenta problemas fundamentais quando se trata de eficiência, privacidade e segurança de grupo conforme definido pelo consenso e consistência da transcrição.

Alternativas modernas ao Ricochet incluem Briar , Zbay e Ricochet Refresh - cada ferramenta procura otimizar para um conjunto diferente de compensações, por exemplo, Briar procura permitir que as pessoas se comuniquem mesmo quando a infraestrutura de rede subjacente está inoperante, ao mesmo tempo que fornece resistência à vigilância de metadados.

O projeto Cwtch começou em 2017 como um protocolo de extensão para Ricochet, fornecendo conversas em grupo por meio de servidores não confiáveis, com o objetivo de permitir aplicativos descentralizados e resistentes a metadados como listas compartilhadas e quadros de avisos.

Uma versão alfa do Cwtch foi lançada em fevereiro de 2019 e, desde então, a equipe do Cwtch dirigida pela OPEN PRIVACY RESEARCH SOCIETY conduziu pesquisa e desenvolvimento em cwtch e nos protocolos, bibliotecas e espaços de problemas subjacentes.

Modelo de Risco.

Sabe-se que os metadados de comunicações são explorados por vários adversários para minar a segurança dos sistemas, para rastrear vítimas e para realizar análises de redes sociais em grande escala para alimentar a vigilância em massa. As ferramentas resistentes a metadados estão em sua infância e faltam pesquisas sobre a construção e a experiência do usuário de tais ferramentas.

https://nostrcheck.me/media/public/nostrcheck.me_9475702740746681051707662826.webp

O Cwtch foi originalmente concebido como uma extensão do protocolo Ricochet resistente a metadados para suportar comunicações assíncronas de grupos multiponto por meio do uso de infraestrutura anônima, descartável e não confiável.

Desde então, o Cwtch evoluiu para um protocolo próprio. Esta seção descreverá os vários riscos conhecidos que o Cwtch tenta mitigar e será fortemente referenciado no restante do documento ao discutir os vários subcomponentes da Arquitetura Cwtch.

Modelo de ameaça.

É importante identificar e compreender que os metadados são omnipresentes nos protocolos de comunicação; é de facto necessário que tais protocolos funcionem de forma eficiente e em escala. No entanto, as informações que são úteis para facilitar peers e servidores também são altamente relevantes para adversários que desejam explorar tais informações.

Para a definição do nosso problema, assumiremos que o conteúdo de uma comunicação é criptografado de tal forma que um adversário é praticamente incapaz de quebrá-lo veja tapir e cwtch para detalhes sobre a criptografia que usamos, e como tal nos concentraremos em o contexto para os metadados de comunicação.

Procuramos proteger os seguintes contextos de comunicação:

• Quem está envolvido em uma comunicação? Pode ser possível identificar pessoas ou simplesmente identificadores de dispositivos ou redes. Por exemplo, “esta comunicação envolve Alice, uma jornalista, e Bob, um funcionário público”.

• Onde estão os participantes da conversa? Por exemplo, “durante esta comunicação, Alice estava na França e Bob estava no Canadá”.

• Quando ocorreu uma conversa? O momento e a duração da comunicação podem revelar muito sobre a natureza de uma chamada, por exemplo, “Bob, um funcionário público, conversou com Alice ao telefone por uma hora ontem à noite. Esta é a primeira vez que eles se comunicam.” *Como a conversa foi mediada? O fato de uma conversa ter ocorrido por meio de um e-mail criptografado ou não criptografado pode fornecer informações úteis. Por exemplo, “Alice enviou um e-mail criptografado para Bob ontem, enquanto eles normalmente enviam apenas e-mails de texto simples um para o outro”.

• Sobre o que é a conversa? Mesmo que o conteúdo da comunicação seja criptografado, às vezes é possível derivar um contexto provável de uma conversa sem saber exatamente o que é dito, por exemplo, “uma pessoa ligou para uma pizzaria na hora do jantar” ou “alguém ligou para um número conhecido de linha direta de suicídio na hora do jantar”. 3 horas da manhã."

Além das conversas individuais, também procuramos defender-nos contra ataques de correlação de contexto, através dos quais múltiplas conversas são analisadas para obter informações de nível superior:

• Relacionamentos: Descobrir relações sociais entre um par de entidades analisando a frequência e a duração de suas comunicações durante um período de tempo. Por exemplo, Carol e Eve ligam uma para a outra todos os dias durante várias horas seguidas.

• Cliques: Descobrir relações sociais entre um grupo de entidades que interagem entre si. Por exemplo, Alice, Bob e Eva se comunicam entre si.

• Grupos vagamente conectados e indivíduos-ponte: descobrir grupos que se comunicam entre si através de intermediários, analisando cadeias de comunicação (por exemplo, toda vez que Alice fala com Bob, ela fala com Carol quase imediatamente depois; Bob e Carol nunca se comunicam).

• Padrão de Vida: Descobrir quais comunicações são cíclicas e previsíveis. Por exemplo, Alice liga para Eve toda segunda-feira à noite por cerca de uma hora. Ataques Ativos

Ataques de deturpação.

O Cwtch não fornece registro global de nomes de exibição e, como tal, as pessoas que usam o Cwtch são mais vulneráveis ​​a ataques baseados em declarações falsas, ou seja, pessoas que fingem ser outras pessoas:

O fluxo básico de um desses ataques é o seguinte, embora também existam outros fluxos:

•Alice tem um amigo chamado Bob e outro chamado Eve

• Eve descobre que Alice tem um amigo chamado Bob

• Eve cria milhares de novas contas para encontrar uma que tenha uma imagem/chave pública semelhante à de Bob (não será idêntica, mas pode enganar alguém por alguns minutos)

• Eve chama essa nova conta de "Eve New Account" e adiciona Alice como amiga.

• Eve então muda seu nome em "Eve New Account" para "Bob"

• Alice envia mensagens destinadas a "Bob" para a conta falsa de Bob de Eve Como os ataques de declarações falsas são inerentemente uma questão de confiança e verificação, a única maneira absoluta de evitá-los é os usuários validarem absolutamente a chave pública. Obviamente, isso não é o ideal e, em muitos casos, simplesmente não acontecerá .

Como tal, pretendemos fornecer algumas dicas de experiência do usuário na interface do usuário para orientar as pessoas na tomada de decisões sobre confiar em contas e/ou distinguir contas que possam estar tentando se representar como outros usuários.

Uma nota sobre ataques físicos A Cwtch não considera ataques que exijam acesso físico (ou equivalente) à máquina do usuário como praticamente defensáveis. No entanto, no interesse de uma boa engenharia de segurança, ao longo deste documento ainda nos referiremos a ataques ou condições que exigem tal privilégio e indicaremos onde quaisquer mitigações que implementámos falharão.

Um perfil Cwtch.

Os usuários podem criar um ou mais perfis Cwtch. Cada perfil gera um par de chaves ed25519 aleatório compatível com Tor.

Além do material criptográfico, um perfil também contém uma lista de Contatos (outras chaves públicas do perfil Cwtch + dados associados sobre esse perfil, como apelido e (opcionalmente) mensagens históricas), uma lista de Grupos (contendo o material criptográfico do grupo, além de outros dados associados, como apelido do grupo e mensagens históricas).

Conversões entre duas partes: ponto a ponto

https://nostrcheck.me/media/public/nostrcheck.me_2186338207587396891707662879.webp

Para que duas partes participem de uma conversa ponto a ponto, ambas devem estar on-line, mas apenas uma precisa estar acessível por meio do serviço Onion. Por uma questão de clareza, muitas vezes rotulamos uma parte como “ponto de entrada” (aquele que hospeda o serviço cebola) e a outra parte como “ponto de saída” (aquele que se conecta ao serviço cebola).

Após a conexão, ambas as partes adotam um protocolo de autenticação que:

• Afirma que cada parte tem acesso à chave privada associada à sua identidade pública.

• Gera uma chave de sessão efêmera usada para criptografar todas as comunicações futuras durante a sessão.

Esta troca (documentada com mais detalhes no protocolo de autenticação ) é negável offline , ou seja, é possível para qualquer parte falsificar transcrições desta troca de protocolo após o fato e, como tal - após o fato - é impossível provar definitivamente que a troca aconteceu de forma alguma.

Após o protocolo de autenticação, as duas partes podem trocar mensagens livremente.

Conversas em Grupo e Comunicação Ponto a Servidor

Ao iniciar uma conversa em grupo, é gerada uma chave aleatória para o grupo, conhecida como Group Key. Todas as comunicações do grupo são criptografadas usando esta chave. Além disso, o criador do grupo escolhe um servidor Cwtch para hospedar o grupo. Um convite é gerado, incluindo o Group Key, o servidor do grupo e a chave do grupo, para ser enviado aos potenciais membros.

Para enviar uma mensagem ao grupo, um perfil se conecta ao servidor do grupo e criptografa a mensagem usando a Group Key, gerando também uma assinatura sobre o Group ID, o servidor do grupo e a mensagem. Para receber mensagens do grupo, um perfil se conecta ao servidor e baixa as mensagens, tentando descriptografá-las usando a Group Key e verificando a assinatura.

Detalhamento do Ecossistema de Componentes

O Cwtch é composto por várias bibliotecas de componentes menores, cada uma desempenhando um papel específico. Algumas dessas bibliotecas incluem:

• abertoprivacidade/conectividade: Abstração de rede ACN, atualmente suportando apenas Tor.
• cwtch.im/tapir: Biblioteca para construção de aplicativos p2p em sistemas de comunicação anônimos.
• cwtch.im/cwtch: Biblioteca principal para implementação do protocolo/sistema Cwtch.
• cwtch.im/libcwtch-go: Fornece ligações C para Cwtch para uso em implementações de UI.

TAPIR: Uma Visão Detalhada

Projetado para substituir os antigos canais de ricochete baseados em protobuf, o Tapir fornece uma estrutura para a construção de aplicativos anônimos.

Está dividido em várias camadas:

• Identidade - Um par de chaves ed25519, necessário para estabelecer um serviço cebola Tor v3 e usado para manter uma identidade criptográfica consistente para um par.

• Conexões – O protocolo de rede bruto que conecta dois pares. Até agora, as conexões são definidas apenas através do Tor v3 Onion Services.

• Aplicativos - As diversas lógicas que permitem um determinado fluxo de informações em uma conexão. Os exemplos incluem transcrições criptográficas compartilhadas, autenticação, proteção contra spam e serviços baseados em tokens. Os aplicativos fornecem recursos que podem ser referenciados por outros aplicativos para determinar se um determinado peer tem a capacidade de usar um determinado aplicativo hospedado.

• Pilhas de aplicativos - Um mecanismo para conectar mais de um aplicativo, por exemplo, a autenticação depende de uma transcrição criptográfica compartilhada e o aplicativo peer cwtch principal é baseado no aplicativo de autenticação.

Identidade.

Um par de chaves ed25519, necessário para estabelecer um serviço cebola Tor v3 e usado para manter uma identidade criptográfica consistente para um peer.

InitializeIdentity - de um par de chaves conhecido e persistente:i,I

InitializeEphemeralIdentity - de um par de chaves aleatório: ie,Ie

Aplicativos de transcrição.

Inicializa uma transcrição criptográfica baseada em Merlin que pode ser usada como base de protocolos baseados em compromisso de nível superior

O aplicativo de transcrição entrará em pânico se um aplicativo tentar substituir uma transcrição existente por uma nova (aplicando a regra de que uma sessão é baseada em uma e apenas uma transcrição).

Merlin é uma construção de transcrição baseada em STROBE para provas de conhecimento zero. Ele automatiza a transformação Fiat-Shamir, para que, usando Merlin, protocolos não interativos possam ser implementados como se fossem interativos.

Isto é significativamente mais fácil e menos sujeito a erros do que realizar a transformação manualmente e, além disso, também fornece suporte natural para:

• protocolos multi-round com fases alternadas de commit e desafio;

• separação natural de domínios, garantindo que os desafios estejam vinculados às afirmações a serem provadas;

• enquadramento automático de mensagens, evitando codificação ambígua de dados de compromisso;

• e composição do protocolo, usando uma transcrição comum para vários protocolos.

Finalmente, o Merlin também fornece um gerador de números aleatórios baseado em transcrição como defesa profunda contra ataques de entropia ruim (como reutilização de nonce ou preconceito em muitas provas). Este RNG fornece aleatoriedade sintética derivada de toda a transcrição pública, bem como dos dados da testemunha do provador e uma entrada auxiliar de um RNG externo.

Conectividade Cwtch faz uso do Tor Onion Services (v3) para todas as comunicações entre nós.

Fornecemos o pacote openprivacy/connectivity para gerenciar o daemon Tor e configurar e desmontar serviços cebola através do Tor.

Criptografia e armazenamento de perfil.

Os perfis são armazenados localmente no disco e criptografados usando uma chave derivada de uma senha conhecida pelo usuário (via pbkdf2).

Observe que, uma vez criptografado e armazenado em disco, a única maneira de recuperar um perfil é recuperando a senha - como tal, não é possível fornecer uma lista completa de perfis aos quais um usuário pode ter acesso até inserir uma senha.

Perfis não criptografados e a senha padrão Para lidar com perfis "não criptografados" (ou seja, que não exigem senha para serem abertos), atualmente criamos um perfil com uma senha codificada de fato .

Isso não é o ideal, preferiríamos confiar no material de chave fornecido pelo sistema operacional, de modo que o perfil fosse vinculado a um dispositivo específico, mas esses recursos são atualmente uma colcha de retalhos - também notamos, ao criar um perfil não criptografado, pessoas que usam Cwtch estão explicitamente optando pelo risco de que alguém com acesso ao sistema de arquivos possa descriptografar seu perfil.

Vulnerabilidades Relacionadas a Imagens e Entrada de Dados

Imagens Maliciosas

O Cwtch enfrenta desafios na renderização de imagens, com o Flutter utilizando Skia, embora o código subjacente não seja totalmente seguro para a memória.

Realizamos testes de fuzzing nos componentes Cwtch e encontramos um bug de travamento causado por um arquivo GIF malformado, levando a falhas no kernel. Para mitigar isso, adotamos a política de sempre habilitar cacheWidth e/ou cacheHeight máximo para widgets de imagem.

Identificamos o risco de imagens maliciosas serem renderizadas de forma diferente em diferentes plataformas, como evidenciado por um bug no analisador PNG da Apple.

Riscos de Entrada de Dados

Um risco significativo é a interceptação de conteúdo ou metadados por meio de um Input Method Editor (IME) em dispositivos móveis. Mesmo aplicativos IME padrão podem expor dados por meio de sincronização na nuvem, tradução online ou dicionários pessoais.

Implementamos medidas de mitigação, como enableIMEPersonalizedLearning: false no Cwtch 1.2, mas a solução completa requer ações em nível de sistema operacional e é um desafio contínuo para a segurança móvel.

Servidor Cwtch.

O objetivo do protocolo Cwtch é permitir a comunicação em grupo através de infraestrutura não confiável .

Ao contrário dos esquemas baseados em retransmissão, onde os grupos atribuem um líder, um conjunto de líderes ou um servidor confiável de terceiros para garantir que cada membro do grupo possa enviar e receber mensagens em tempo hábil (mesmo que os membros estejam offline) - infraestrutura não confiável tem o objetivo de realizar essas propriedades sem a suposição de confiança.

O artigo original do Cwtch definia um conjunto de propriedades que se esperava que os servidores Cwtch fornecessem:

• O Cwtch Server pode ser usado por vários grupos ou apenas um.

• Um servidor Cwtch, sem a colaboração de um membro do grupo, nunca deve aprender a identidade dos participantes de um grupo.

• Um servidor Cwtch nunca deve aprender o conteúdo de qualquer comunicação.

• Um servidor Cwtch nunca deve ser capaz de distinguir mensagens como pertencentes a um grupo específico. Observamos aqui que essas propriedades são um superconjunto dos objetivos de design das estruturas de Recuperação de Informações Privadas.

Melhorias na Eficiência e Segurança

Eficiência do Protocolo

Atualmente, apenas um protocolo conhecido, o PIR ingênuo, atende às propriedades desejadas para garantir a privacidade na comunicação do grupo Cwtch. Este método tem um impacto direto na eficiência da largura de banda, especialmente para usuários em dispositivos móveis. Em resposta a isso, estamos ativamente desenvolvendo novos protocolos que permitem negociar garantias de privacidade e eficiência de maneiras diversas.

Os servidores, no momento desta escrita, permitem o download completo de todas as mensagens armazenadas, bem como uma solicitação para baixar mensagens específicas a partir de uma determinada mensagem. Quando os pares ingressam em um grupo em um novo servidor, eles baixam todas as mensagens do servidor inicialmente e, posteriormente, apenas as mensagens novas.

Mitigação de Análise de Metadados

Essa abordagem permite uma análise moderada de metadados, pois o servidor pode enviar novas mensagens para cada perfil suspeito exclusivo e usar essas assinaturas de mensagens exclusivas para rastrear sessões ao longo do tempo. Essa preocupação é mitigada por dois fatores:

1. Os perfis podem atualizar suas conexões a qualquer momento, resultando em uma nova sessão do servidor.
2. Os perfis podem ser "ressincronizados" de um servidor a qualquer momento, resultando em uma nova chamada para baixar todas as mensagens. Isso é comumente usado para buscar mensagens antigas de um grupo.

Embora essas medidas imponham limites ao que o servidor pode inferir, ainda não podemos garantir resistência total aos metadados. Para soluções futuras para esse problema, consulte Niwl.

Proteção contra Pares Maliciosos

Os servidores enfrentam o risco de spam gerado por pares, representando uma ameaça significativa à eficácia do sistema Cwtch. Embora tenhamos implementado um mecanismo de proteção contra spam no protótipo do Cwtch, exigindo que os pares realizem alguma prova de trabalho especificada pelo servidor, reconhecemos que essa não é uma solução robusta na presença de um adversário determinado com recursos significativos.

Pacotes de Chaves

Os servidores Cwtch se identificam por meio de pacotes de chaves assinados, contendo uma lista de chaves necessárias para garantir a segurança e resistência aos metadados na comunicação do grupo Cwtch. Esses pacotes de chaves geralmente incluem três chaves: uma chave pública do serviço Tor v3 Onion para o Token Board, uma chave pública do Tor v3 Onion Service para o Token Service e uma chave pública do Privacy Pass.

Para verificar os pacotes de chaves, os perfis que os importam do servidor utilizam o algoritmo trust-on-first-use (TOFU), verificando a assinatura anexada e a existência de todos os tipos de chave. Se o perfil já tiver importado o pacote de chaves do servidor anteriormente, todas as chaves são consideradas iguais.

Configuração prévia do aplicativo para ativar o Relé do Cwtch.

No Android, a hospedagem de servidor não está habilitada, pois essa opção não está disponível devido às limitações dos dispositivos Android. Essa funcionalidade está reservada apenas para servidores hospedados em desktops.

No Android, a única forma direta de importar uma chave de servidor é através do grupo de teste Cwtch, garantindo assim acesso ao servidor Cwtch.

Primeiro passo é Habilitar a opção de grupo no Cwtch que está em fase de testes. Clique na opção no canto superior direito da tela de configuração e pressione o botão para acessar as configurações do Cwtch.

Você pode alterar o idioma para Português do Brasil.Depois, role para baixo e selecione a opção para ativar os experimentos. Em seguida, ative a opção para habilitar o chat em grupo e a pré-visualização de imagens e fotos de perfil, permitindo que você troque sua foto de perfil.

https://pomf2.lain.la/f/eprhj0u3.mp4

Próximo passo é Criar um perfil.

Pressione o + botão de ação no canto inferior direito e selecione "Novo perfil" ou aberta no botão + adicionar novo perfil.

• Selecione um nome de exibição

• Selecione se deseja proteger

este perfil e salvo localmente com criptografia forte: Senha: sua conta está protegida de outras pessoas que possam usar este dispositivo

Sem senha: qualquer pessoa que tenha acesso a este dispositivo poderá acessar este perfil.

Preencha sua senha e digite-a novamente

Os perfis são armazenados localmente no disco e criptografados usando uma chave derivada de uma senha conhecida pelo usuário (via pbkdf2).

Observe que, uma vez criptografado e armazenado em disco, a única maneira de recuperar um perfil é recuperando a chave da senha - como tal, não é possível fornecer uma lista completa de perfis aos quais um usuário pode ter acesso até inserir um senha.

https://pomf2.lain.la/f/7p6jfr9r.mp4

O próximo passo é adicionar o FuzzBot, que é um bot de testes e de desenvolvimento.

Contato do FuzzBot: 4y2hxlxqzautabituedksnh2ulcgm2coqbure6wvfpg4gi2ci25ta5ad.

Ao enviar o comando "testgroup-invite" para o FuzzBot, você receberá um convite para entrar no Grupo Cwtch Test. Ao ingressar no grupo, você será automaticamente conectado ao servidor Cwtch. Você pode optar por sair do grupo a qualquer momento ou ficar para conversar e tirar dúvidas sobre o aplicativo e outros assuntos. Depois, você pode configurar seu próprio servidor Cwtch, o que é altamente recomendável. https://pomf2.lain.la/f/x4pm8hm8.mp4

Agora você pode utilizar o aplicativo normalmente. Algumas observações que notei: se houver demora na conexão com outra pessoa, ambas devem estar online. Se ainda assim a conexão não for estabelecida, basta clicar no ícone de reset do Tor para restabelecer a conexão com a outra pessoa.

Uma introdução aos perfis Cwtch.

Com Cwtch você pode criar um ou mais perfis . Cada perfil gera um par de chaves ed25519 aleatório compatível com a Rede Tor.

Este é o identificador que você pode fornecer às pessoas e que elas podem usar para entrar em contato com você via Cwtch.

Cwtch permite criar e gerenciar vários perfis separados. Cada perfil está associado a um par de chaves diferente que inicia um serviço cebola diferente.

Gerenciar Na inicialização, o Cwtch abrirá a tela Gerenciar Perfis. Nessa tela você pode:

• Crie um novo perfil.
• Desbloquear perfis.
• Criptografados existentes.
• Gerenciar perfis carregados.
• Alterando o nome de exibição de um perfil.
• Alterando a senha de um perfil Excluindo um perfil.
• Alterando uma imagem de perfil.

Backup ou exportação de um perfil.

Na tela de gerenciamento de perfil:

1. Selecione o lápis ao lado do perfil que você deseja editar

2. Role para baixo até a parte inferior da tela.

3. Selecione "Exportar perfil"

4. Escolha um local e um nome de arquivo.

5.confirme.

Uma vez confirmado, o Cwtch colocará uma cópia do perfil no local indicado. Este arquivo é criptografado no mesmo nível do perfil.

Este arquivo pode ser importado para outra instância do Cwtch em qualquer dispositivo.

Importando um perfil.

1. Pressione o +botão de ação no canto inferior direito e selecione "Importar perfil"

2. Selecione um arquivo de perfil Cwtch exportado para importar

3. Digite a senha associada ao perfil e confirme.

Uma vez confirmado, o Cwtch tentará descriptografar o arquivo fornecido usando uma chave derivada da senha fornecida. Se for bem-sucedido, o perfil aparecerá na tela Gerenciamento de perfil e estará pronto para uso.

OBSERVAÇÃO Embora um perfil possa ser importado para vários dispositivos, atualmente apenas uma versão de um perfil pode ser usada em todos os dispositivos ao mesmo tempo. As tentativas de usar o mesmo perfil em vários dispositivos podem resultar em problemas de disponibilidade e falhas de mensagens.

Qual é a diferença entre uma conexão ponto a ponto e um grupo cwtch?

As conexões ponto a ponto Cwtch permitem que 2 pessoas troquem mensagens diretamente. As conexões ponto a ponto nos bastidores usam serviços cebola Tor v3 para fornecer uma conexão criptografada e resistente a metadados. Devido a esta conexão direta, ambas as partes precisam estar online ao mesmo tempo para trocar mensagens.

Os Grupos Cwtch permitem que várias partes participem de uma única conversa usando um servidor não confiável (que pode ser fornecido por terceiros ou auto-hospedado). Os operadores de servidores não conseguem saber quantas pessoas estão em um grupo ou o que está sendo discutido. Se vários grupos estiverem hospedados em um único servidor, o servidor não conseguirá saber quais mensagens pertencem a qual grupo sem a conivência de um membro do grupo. Ao contrário das conversas entre pares, as conversas em grupo podem ser conduzidas de forma assíncrona, para que todos num grupo não precisem estar online ao mesmo tempo.

Por que os grupos cwtch são experimentais? Mensagens em grupo resistentes a metadados ainda são um problema em aberto . Embora a versão que fornecemos no Cwtch Beta seja projetada para ser segura e com metadados privados, ela é bastante ineficiente e pode ser mal utilizada. Como tal, aconselhamos cautela ao usá-lo e apenas o fornecemos como um recurso opcional.

Como posso executar meu próprio servidor Cwtch? A implementação de referência para um servidor Cwtch é de código aberto . Qualquer pessoa pode executar um servidor Cwtch, e qualquer pessoa com uma cópia do pacote de chaves públicas do servidor pode hospedar grupos nesse servidor sem que o operador tenha acesso aos metadados relacionados ao grupo .

https://git.openprivacy.ca/cwtch.im/server

https://docs.openprivacy.ca/cwtch-security-handbook/server.html

Como posso desligar o Cwtch? O painel frontal do aplicativo possui um ícone do botão "Shutdown Cwtch" (com um 'X'). Pressionar este botão irá acionar uma caixa de diálogo e, na confirmação, o Cwtch será desligado e todos os perfis serão descarregados.

Suas doações podem fazer a diferença no projeto Cwtch? O Cwtch é um projeto dedicado a construir aplicativos que preservam a privacidade, oferecendo comunicação de grupo resistente a metadados. Além disso, o projeto também desenvolve o Cofre, formulários da web criptografados para ajudar mútua segura. Suas contribuições apoiam iniciativas importantes, como a divulgação de violações de dados médicos em Vancouver e pesquisas sobre a segurança do voto eletrônico na Suíça. Ao doar, você está ajudando a fechar o ciclo, trabalhando com comunidades marginalizadas para identificar e corrigir lacunas de privacidade. Além disso, o projeto trabalha em soluções inovadoras, como a quebra de segredos através da criptografia de limite para proteger sua privacidade durante passagens de fronteira. E também tem a infraestrutura: toda nossa infraestrutura é open source e sem fins lucrativos. Conheça também o Fuzzytags, uma estrutura criptográfica probabilística para marcação resistente a metadados. Sua doação é crucial para continuar o trabalho em prol da privacidade e segurança online. Contribua agora com sua doação

https://openprivacy.ca/donate/

onde você pode fazer sua doação em bitcoin e outras moedas, e saiba mais sobre os projetos. https://openprivacy.ca/work/

Link sobre Cwtch

https://cwtch.im/

https://git.openprivacy.ca/cwtch.im/cwtch

https://docs.cwtch.im/docs/intro

https://docs.openprivacy.ca/cwtch-security-handbook/

Baixar #CwtchDev

cwtch.im/download/

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=im.cwtch.flwtch