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Bitcoin, sats, bits, numbers, and perceptions

Quick background

In December 2024 John Carvalho proposed BIP 21Q titled "Redefinition of the Bitcoin Unit to the Base Denomination." His point: the word "bitcoin" should not refer to the 21 million bitcoins we hear about, but to what we currently call "sats", the "base" unit of bitcoin. There are 2.1 quadrillion sats. So, instead of saying there are 21 million bitcoin, BIP 21Q suggests saying there are 2.1 quadrillion.

There'd be absolutely zero change to Bitcoin, the protocol, with this BIP (unlike the OP_CAT or more current OP_RETURN debates). This is just a movement to get people to change the way they talk about and refer to "bitcoin." BIP 21Q is just a rewording, a rephrasing, a rebranding, a rethinking.

Since

Since then, there has been discussion. I'll admit it's interesting to talk about, but I've never thought much of it. My take has been, and frankly still is: this too will pass. I hadn't heard or thought of this in a couple of months. Until...

In the past couple of days though, like a campfire that has been slowly dying down, a sudden rush of wind has fanned the embers and the flames have sparked upward. As best I can tell, that wind came out of the mouth (or typing) of Jack Dorsey (Twitter founder, Square/Block CEO, billionaire, you know Jack) when he put this note out.

Watch the vid on YouTube.

The video makes some good points, both against and in favor of BIP 21Q. Quickly, Grok summarized the arguments for and against, below:

Today, I even read chatter about a middle ground compromise to use "bits" as the base unit. In other words, don't use "sats" but use "bits." I guess the idea is that a bitcoin can stay one of 21 million, but "bits," which sounds like little bitcoins, can be the 2.1 quadrillion. "Oh brother," I thought, even more confusion. We've been through this back in the 20-teens with bits, ubits, and mbits. This was a main reason I made the Satoshi Bitcoin Converter because it was confusing! I'm happy we were past all this, but then...it's back!

Just for kicks, you can fool around with the old SBC version 7 and find out how confusing it is.

One of the arguments in the video is that the BoardwalkCash.com folks have adopted "bitcoin" as their base unit. Boardwalk Cash is a cashu/ecash (and Lightning) web app with the intention of making spending and receiving small, coffee-sized payments easy.

Notice the bitcoin B after the zero, not "sats" or a satoshi symbol, like the one I proposed: シ 😃

Below, I sent 21 sats (bitcoins?) from a different ecash/cashu wallet. And, boom, there they appear in Boardwalk Cash. Notice how it appears as 21₿, as 21 bitcoin. Then, when I click it, it shows $0.02 USD, two pennies.

I didn't actually send 21 what-we-think-of-today bitcoins, worth $2.16 million. I sent two US pennies worth.

By the way, if you've never messed around with ecash/cashu and wish to try it out, get a wallet and I'll send you a few sats (bitcoins?) as ecash to see how easy it is. These images are from Boardwalkcash.com which is very clean, however I use Cashu.me.

And so...

And so, this is the main argument against, in my view: possible confusion. The other issue would be the changeover by things like exchanges or maybe even smart contracts that bridge BTC to other chains. Having worked on my little converter app, I know that it can be easy to make a decimal mistake in the code and throw everything off. I'm certain that, should we move to 2.1 quadrillion bitcoins, somebody will foul up an interface or back end which might cause a big problem, maybe some big losses.

Two things here:

On the more technical side, the changing of names and code on exchanges or smart contracts, it would almost be better if there was a hard-and-fast, set changeover date, like there was with Y2K. There is a clear before-and-after, B.C. and A.D. date. Call it, "BQ" and "AQ", before and after quadrillion. 😂 If there was a date/time where everything was 21M "bitcoin" to 2.1Q "bitcoin", that would force the issue.

However, there is not such a date or time, nor will there be...recall that bitcoin is decentralized, no CEO here. If this 2.1Q change actually happens, the reality is that it will be a rolling, gradual, thing. It will be case by case, app by app, exchange by exchange. And some won't make the change at all. This lends back to the confusion situation.

Secondly, on the human perception side, this actually concerns me less. We can change human perception. It takes some time, but human perception and thinking is very plastic and can definitely be molded. Heaven knows the examples of how this has been used the wrong way in history, umm, anything like this go on in World War II?

Quick case studies of changing perception:

Standard Oil (John D. Rockefeller's company) was essentially a monopoly and was broken up by the U.S., remember that from history class? They had a multitude of sub-brands, one of which was "Esso", get it?, S.O., Standard Oil? They wanted to move away from ties to Standard Oil, at least perception-wise, and wanted to consolidate all their sub-brands. They moved to "Exxon" with a marketing campaign. The marketing types were brilliant. They understood that there is a time thing involved. Unlike the Y2K hard date above, they knew that human perception, as malleable as it is, changes over time. Rather than fight this, they used this to their advantage.

As I understand, one of their techniques was to use the visual. The Esso sign was shown in places with the Esso logo up high and prominent. But, down below, was the never-before-seen Exxon sign. It was just there, doing nothing. Doing nothing except implanting itself into the subconscious of the viewers. Then, the Exxon sign, in later ads, appeared higher. The Esso sign lowered and was less prominent. Hmm? What's going on? Does anyone even notice? Hmm? Then, in the coup, the tiger mascot literally lowered the Esso sign down and raised the Exxon sign up.

In the final coup d'état, the Esso sign simply disappeared. And, make no mistake, this is the coup de grâce...the word Esso just disappeared. It was no longer seen at all. Then, it was forgotten and it was gone. Now, there is Exxon.

More recently, we all know that Twitter rebranded to X. It seemed so dumb, definitely awkward, I'm still not entirely used to it, people still write, "...so-and-so posted on X, formerly Twitter,..." (as if no one knows that X is formerly Twitter), I still say people "tweet" on X, but it's changing. I now hear reference to what so-and-so said "on X", with no mention of Twitter. It's changing. Time...it'll change...Twitter will stop being mentioned, Twitter will be a part of history, like Esso.

What'll happen with 21Q?

Nothing. I fully predict that this 2.1 quadrillion bitcoins thing will go nowhere. One of the main reasons for moving to replace "sats" as "bitcoins" is the perception that 1 bitcoin is unattainable and that people know "bitcoin," but don't know "sats." A bull bitcoin is out of reach for most people, but sats are attainable by everyone with a wallet. And, if they don't know ther term "sats," it's probably easier to change that perception (to educate them on sats) than it is to change and possibly confuse their knowledge of 21M bitcoins with 2.1Q bitcoins. It's probably easier to educate on "sats" than it is to change all the backends on exchanges and smart contracts and front ends (and some won't change at all, which will add more to confusion).

Solution: educate

Practical solution: if you think you might be speaking to a "normie" audience, make it a point to use the phrase "bitcoin sats." Over time, as people acquire and use sats to buy burgers, they'll know that sats means 1 of 2.1 quadrillion, but a bitcoin is 1 of 21 million. This is the Esso tiger lowering "bitcoin" and raising "sats."

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Man stelle sich vor, es droht Frieden auszubrechen. Wie stehen wir, die Deutschen, die Europäer denn dann da? Ja, wie die letzten Deppen, die ihr auch seid!

Wen wundert es, wenn nach erfolgreicher Friedensverhinderung durch Boris Johnson in 2022 und den durch den Westen zahlreichen überschrittenen Roten Linien Russland skeptisch ist?

Am russischen Misstrauen haben die hinter der Ukraine stehenden westlichen Staaten jahrelang erfolgreich gearbeitet.

„Besonderer Dank“ gilt hier vor allem der von allen Mitgliedern bedenkenlos hingenommenen NATO-Osterweiterung.

Die Aussage von Frau Merkel, man habe nie vorgehabt, das Minsk-Abkommen umzusetzen, stattdessen habe man gewollt, der Ukraine Zeit zu verschaffen, sich aufzurüsten, kann nur von jemandem, der weniger als eine Gehirnzelle hat, als vertrauensbildende Maßnahme bewertet werden.

Die immer wieder im Raum stehende Debatte um eine deutsche Lieferung von Kampf-Stieren, demnächst wohlmöglich unter Ausschluss der Öffentlichkeit (das könnte Teile der Bevölkerung verunsichern), ein weiteres Beispiel von friedenstüchtiger Diplomatie.

Wie schon beim klaglosen Hinnehmen der terroristischen Sprengung der Nordstream2 Pipelines, wozu Präsident Trump schon geäußert hat, dass es die Russen sicher nicht waren, wird auch brav von Deutschland hingenommen, dass von Wiesbaden aus, die Koordination der Raketenangriffe von der Ukraine auf Russland durch die USA, innerhalb der Task Force Dragon, gesteuert werden.

Die Verletzung des 2+4-Vertrages durch die Stationierung von Nicht-NATO-Truppen in Rostock, die an die Umbenennung eines Schokoriegels von Raider in Twixx erinnert.

Das strikte Einhalten der deutschen Maxime: „Von Deutschland soll nur noch Frieden ausgehen.“

Dazu die Lieferung von Raketen mit mittlerer Reichweite durch die Franzosen und Briten nach dem Motto: Ich habe nur das Messer auf den Tisch gelegt, zugestochen hat ein anderer.

All das trägt dazu bei, dass Russland vertrauensvoll nach europäischen Friedensvorschlägen geradezu lechzt. Unterstrichen werden diese übermenschlichen Anstrengungen durch ein weiteres, das bereit 17. Sanktionspaket. Dümmer geht’s nimmer.

Auch diplomatisch nicht zu überbietende Aussagen, wie „Russland wird immer unser Feind sein“, oder „Russland wird Deutschland in spätestens 5 Jahren angreifen“, oder „Deutschland muss wieder kriegstüchtig werden“, unterstreichen den unbedingten Willen, das sinnlose Sterben auf beiden Seiten schnellst möglich beenden zu wollen.

Außerhalb Deutschlands kann man nur zu der Überzeugung gelangen, dass es sich bei diesem Land um eine Freiluft-Irrenanstalt handeln muss. Und wer will schon mit geistig verwirrten Insassen über so ernste Themen wie Krieg und Frieden verhandeln, bei denen Verstand gebraucht wird.

Derartige Weltfremde ist nur mit Sarkasmus zu ertragen.

Bewundernswert der Langmut, den Russland bis heute an den Tag legt. Wäre die Situation umgekehrt, hätte der Westen schon lange dem „bösen“ Russen gezeigt, wo der US-Hammer hängt, und dass man so mit der sogenannten Wertegemeinschaft nicht umgehen kann.

Ja, der russische Einmarsch in die Ukraine war völkerrechtswidrig, genau so wie die US-amerikanischen „Besuche“ der USA in Vietnam, in Libyen und im Irak, auf sehr unschöne Weise. Wer hat nicht noch die Bilder vom Blitzgewitter der Bomben auf Bagdad im Gedächtnis. „Immer schön drauf, Stärke zeigen!“

Die zentrale Frage ist, wie man Deutschland „möglichst schonend“ beibringen kann, ohne, dass es einen größeren psychischen Staatsschaden davonträgt, dass es als Geisterfahrer auf der Friedensautobahn unterwegs ist.

Von russischer Seite sind nicht gerade die Vorstände der Kaninchenzüchter-Vereine nach Istanbul entsandt worden. Im Gegenteil, es handelt sich wohl eher um Personen, die bestens über das Kriegsgeschehen vor Ort Bescheid wissen.

Es darf nicht vergessen werden, dass es sich um einen Stellvertreterkrieg zwischen den von der Vorgängerregierung angezettelten USA und Russland, auf dem Rücken der Ukraine handelt.

In Istanbul haben sich zunächst die beiden Länder getroffen, deren Soldaten tatsächlich aufeinander schießen. Nicht die Strategen im Hintergrund. Und selbstverständlich beobachten die USA sehr wachsam, was vor sich geht und wie der Verlauf ist.

Es wäre fern der Realität, wenn im Hintergrund nicht weitere Fäden gesponnen würden, die der Öffentlichkeit zunächst vorenthalten werden. In diesem Fall kann das sogar von Vorteil sein, weil zu viele System-Journalisten den Brei mit dämlichen Kommentaren verderben könnten.

Zunächst soll zwischen den aktiv kämpfenden Parteien der Dialog wieder aufgenommen und eine Grundlage geschaffen werden, was schon ein großer Fortschritt ist, weil man sich seit 2022 überhaupt wieder erst einmal an einen gemeinsamen Tisch gesetzt hat und endlich wieder miteinander redet.

Wie immer im Krieg, wird auch hier strategisch vorgegangen und peinlichst darauf geachtet, dass alle Beteiligten möglichst weitgehend ihr Gesicht bewahren. Wer geglaubt hat, dass hier gleich Friedenstauben aufsteigen und alles mit einem Bruderkuss besiegelt wird, der ist wirklich ziemlich naiv.

Erst, wenn Sondierungsgespräche und Vorverhandlungen so weit gediehen sind, dass „nur“ noch eine Unterschrift fehlt, treten Putin und Trump als Friedensbringer auf die Bühne und besiegeln den „Deal“. Wie man jetzt an dem Vorführen Selenskyjs durch Putin gesehen hat, dient dieser nur noch als Spielball, der beim Ping-Pong um den Frieden hin- und hergeworfen wird. Trump hatte zuvor Selensky bei seinem Besuch im Weißen Haus ganz deutlich gesagt, dass er die Karten nicht in der Hand hat.

Jeder, der bei Verstand geblieben ist, wünscht sich endlich ein Ende dieses sinnlosen Sterbens, doch der Druck muss im Kessel langsam und kontrolliert abgelassen werden.

Entgegen der im Westen weitverbreiteten Propaganda-Lüge, der Konflikt in der Ukraine habe im Februar 2022 angefangen, hat sich die Situation über Jahre, mindestens mit der NATO-Osterweiterung aufgebaut. Da kann niemand erwarten, dass die Wiederherstellung eines Gleichgewichts jetzt in kürzester Zeit erreicht werden kann.

Urheber dieser Tragödie ist die NATO, die Russland immer mehr auf die Pelle gerückt ist. Hätte sie sich seinerzeit, wie der Warschauer Pakt, aufgrund der veränderten Kräfteverhältnisse ebenfalls aufgelöst, würden heute rund 1 Million Männer auf beiden Seiten sehr wahrscheinlich noch leben. Es wäre zu wünschen, dass nach dem exemplarischen Desaster in der Ukraine neue Überlegungen angestrengt werden würden, ob nicht die NATO, als Relikt aus alten Zeiten und aus Missachtung ihres Gründungsgedanken, ein Verteidigungsbündnis sein zu wollen, von der Zeit eingeholt wurde und ihrer Auflösung entgegensehen muss.

Dieser Artikel wurde mit dem Pareto-Client geschrieben

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(Bild von pixabay)

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The Myth and the Magic

Picture this: a group of investors, huddled around a glowing computer screen, nervously watching Bitcoin’s price. Suddenly, someone produces a stick-no ordinary stick, but a magical one. With a mischievous grin, they poke the Bitcoin. The price leaps upward. Cheers erupt. The legend of the Bitcoin stick is born.

But why does poking Bitcoin with a stick make the price go up? Why does it only work for a lucky few? And what does the data say about this mysterious phenomenon? Let’s dig in, laugh a little, and maybe learn the secret to market-moving magic.

The Statistical Side of Stick-Poking

Bitcoin’s Price: The Wild Ride

Bitcoin’s price is famous for its unpredictability. In the past year, it’s soared, dipped, and soared again, sometimes gaining more than 50% in just a few months. On a good day, billions of dollars flow through Bitcoin trades, and the price can jump thousands in a matter of hours. Clearly, something is making this happen-and it’s not just spreadsheets and financial news.

What Actually Moves the Price?

• Scarcity: Only 21 million Bitcoins will ever exist. When more people want in, the price jumps.

• Big News: Announcements, rumors, and meme-worthy moments can send the price flying.

• FOMO: When people see Bitcoin rising, they rush to buy, pushing it even higher.

• Liquidations: When traders betting against Bitcoin get squeezed, it triggers a chain reaction of buying.

But let’s be honest: none of this is as fun as poking Bitcoin with a stick.

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The Magical Stick: Not Your Average Twig

Why Not Every Stick Works

You can’t just grab any old branch and expect Bitcoin to dance. The magical stick is a rare artifact, forged in the fires of internet memes and blessed by the spirit of Satoshi. Only a chosen few possess it-and when they poke, the market listens.

Signs You Have the Magical Stick

• When you poke, Bitcoin’s price immediately jumps a few percent.

• Your stick glows with meme energy and possibly sparkles with digital dust.

• You have a knack for timing your poke right after a big event, like a halving or a celebrity tweet.

• Your stick is rumored to have been whittled from the original blockchain itself.

Why Most Sticks Fail

• No Meme Power: If your stick isn’t funny, Bitcoin ignores you.

• Bad Timing: Poking during a bear market just annoys the blockchain.

• Not Enough Hype: If the bitcoin community isn’t watching, your poke is just a poke.

• Lack of Magic: Some sticks are just sticks. Sad, but true.

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The Data: When the Stick Strikes

Let’s look at some numbers:

• In the last month, Bitcoin’s price jumped over 20% right after a flurry of memes and stick-poking jokes.

• Over the past year, every major price surge was accompanied by a wave of internet hype, stick memes, or wild speculation.

• In the past five years, Bitcoin’s biggest leaps always seemed to follow some kind of magical event-whether a halving, a viral tweet, or a mysterious poke.

Coincidence? Maybe. But the pattern is clear: the stick works-at least when it’s magical.

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The Role of Memes, Magic, and Mayhem

Bitcoin’s price is like a cat: unpredictable, easily startled, and sometimes it just wants to be left alone. But when the right meme pops up, or the right stick pokes at just the right time, the price can leap in ways that defy logic.

The bitcoin community knows this. That’s why, when Bitcoin’s stuck in a rut, you’ll see a flood of stick memes, GIFs, and magical thinking. Sometimes, it actually works.

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The Secret’s in the Stick (and the Laughs)

So, does poking Bitcoin with a stick really make the price go up? If your stick is magical-blessed by memes, timed perfectly, and watched by millions-absolutely. The statistics show that hype, humor, and a little bit of luck can move markets as much as any financial report.

Next time you see Bitcoin stalling, don’t just sit there. Grab your stick, channel your inner meme wizard, and give it a poke. Who knows? You might just be the next legend in the world of bitcoin magic.

And if your stick doesn’t work, don’t worry. Sometimes, the real magic is in the laughter along the way.

-aco

@block height: 897,104

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@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

Bitcoin has been playing an increasingly important role in protests and social movements around the world. Thanks to its decentralized nature, resistance to censorship, and independence from government control, Bitcoin has become a valuable tool for activists, organizations, and citizens fighting against oppressive regimes or restrictive financial systems.

• Bitcoin as an alternative to the traditional financial system

In recent years, governments and banking institutions have used financial restrictions as a form of political repression. Frozen bank accounts, blocked donations, and limitations on transactions are some of the strategies used to weaken social movements and protests. Bitcoin offers an alternative, allowing funds to be transferred and stored without interference from banks or governments.

One of Bitcoin’s main advantages in these contexts is its censorship resistance. While bank accounts can be shut down and centralized payment services can be pressured to block transactions, Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network where no one can prevent a user from sending or receiving funds.

• Examples of Bitcoin use in protests

01 - Hong Kong (2019–2020): During the pro-democracy protests, activists faced financial restrictions when trying to organize demonstrations and campaigns. Many turned to Bitcoin to avoid surveillance by the Chinese government and to secure funding for their actions.

02 - Canada (2022): The truckers' protest against government restrictions saw participants' bank accounts frozen. As an alternative, Bitcoin donations were used to bypass financial repression.

03 - Belarus (2020): After the contested presidential elections, protesters used Bitcoin to fund activities and support those who lost their jobs due to state repression.

04 - Nigeria (2020): During the #EndSARS protests against police brutality, international donations to the movement were blocked. Bitcoin became one of the main methods for financing the cause.

• Challenges of using Bitcoin in social movements

01 - Education and accessibility: Many people still don’t know how to use Bitcoin safely and efficiently. This lack of knowledge can hinder large-scale adoption.

02 - Digital security: Social movements often operate under heavy surveillance. Without proper security measures, funds can be compromised.

03 - Volatility: Bitcoin’s price can fluctuate significantly in a short time, which may affect the value of donations and funds raised.

In summary, Bitcoin has proven to be an essential tool in resisting financial censorship and government repression. By enabling social movements and activists to fund their causes without intermediaries, Bitcoin strengthens the fight for freedom and justice. However, effective adoption of the technology requires knowledge, security, and adaptation to its unique characteristics. As more people learn to use Bitcoin, its role in protests and social movements will continue to grow, reinforcing the importance of financial sovereignty in the struggle for rights and freedoms.

Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

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Apache Kafka Architecture

Apache Kafka Architecture

Apache Kafka is a powerful distributed stream processing platform originally developed by LinkedIn, written in Scala and Java. In this article, I walk through the foundational concepts, design and architecture, concluding with hands-on coding examples using Node.js and the KafkaJS library.

Introduction to Kafka

Kafka enables the processing of real-time data streams in a distributed and scalable manner. It’s widely used in systems requiring reliable communication between components, especially for event-driven architectures and microservices.

However, these words sounds very markety and I like to deconstruct things to its basic first principles so that is what I’m going to do. This guide outlines the essential components, explains the core concepts like brokers, producers, consumers, and topics, and dives into more complex abstractions like partitions, consumer groups, and Kafka’s distributed nature.

Kafka Core Components

Here we discuss the fundamental components of Kafka.

Topics and Messages

Messages in Kafka are organized into logical categories called topics. Each topic is append-only and immutable (ie you cannot go back and edit a message). New data is added sequentially at the end. Disks love that.

There are two topics, one called users with two messages (John and Ed) and a Jobs with two messages Req1 and Req2.

Kafka Broker (Server)

The central server that receives and stores messages sent by producers and allow consumers to read the messages. Clients communicate with brokers via TCP, typically on port 9092.

Kafka broker hosts the topics and messages.

Producers and Consumers:

Producers connects to a broker, sends messages to the Kafka broker by specifying the topic.

Publisher pushes messages to the broker for a topic, messages go to the end.

Consumers connects to a broker, polls messages from a topic for a given broker for processing.

Customer polls messages based on a position

Partitions

I always say the best way to work with billions of rows is to avoid working with billions of row. Kafka is no different.

The topics in Kafka can be divided into partitions to allow data distribution and scalability. Each partition acts as a log that consumers read sequentially. Messages within partitions are identified by their offset, which is the message’s position in the log.

Partitioning

Partitioning enables parallel processing, you can have two consumers each processing a partition in parallel. While this allows scaling and improve reading throughput, it introduces complexity as producers and consumers must be aware of partitioning logic. A topic may have multiple partitions based on partition keys (e.g., A–M in partition 0, N–Z in partition 1).

Pub/Sub vs Queue Model

Kafka supports both pub/sub and queue-based messaging patterns:

• Queue: The topic can be treated as a queue, ie any message published to the queue will be consumed only once and popped from the queue. No two consumers can get the same message.
• Pub/Sub: The topic can be in publish-subscribe entity, ie any message published to the topic can be consumed by different consumers.

Kafka achieves this dual functionality using consumer groups. Each consumer in a group is assigned specific partitions, ensuring messages are processed only once per group.

To simulate a queue , all consumers are placed in the same consumer group (they all have the same group name). Whereas to simulate pub/sub mode you would place all consumers in unique group names.

Consumer Groups and Rebalancing

Each partition in a topic is assigned one consumer in a group. When multiple consumers join the same group, Kafka rebalances partitions among them. Each partition is consumed by only one consumer in a group. This allows horizontal scaling while ensuring order within each partition is maintained. Will demonstrate that in the code section.

Distributed Kafka Clusters and Zookeeper

Kafka operates as a distributed system with multiple brokers. Each broker can be a leader or follower for different partitions. The leader handles reads and writes, while followers replicate data.

Kafka originally relied on Zookeeper to manage broker coordination, metadata, and leader election. Zookeeper tracks which broker is the leader of which partition. However, Zookeeper introduces complexity and is being phased out in newer Kafka versions. Kafka 4.0 no longer has Zookeeper.

On Long Polling

You may ask, how does the consumer get the data the moment it is published to the topic/partition? I encourage you to first think of how could this be implemented.

One approach is push, ie the broker pushes the message to the consumer TCP connection. This approach is real-time, but overwhelms the consumer, as it needs to process the message.

Another approach is polling, ie the consumer every X milliseconds asks the broker, is there anything for me and the broker replies, yes here you go, or no nothing, this approach does allow the consumer to read at its own pace but may introduce severe network chatter, which lead to network bandwidth, it also may causes consumer to miss the real-time message, since the message may have came in to the broker between polls.

The final approach which Kafka went with is long polling which I talked extensively on my backend course. The consumer connects to the broker and sends a normal poll, if there is a message the broker replies back, if there isn’t the broker doesn’t respond with “no”, but instead just wait little bit more (configurable), this increases the chances that messages may arrive during this wait. Once we get a message the broker writes the response. Meanwhile the consumer feels like its poll request just took little longer.

Kafka, Docker and Node Example

We will use docker to install Kafka broker and Zookeeper single mode cluster. Then create a topic called “Users” with two partitions, produce some messages on both partitions and have consumers read from the partitions.

My docker host IP is 192.168.7.179, replace it with your own docker host IP.

You will need to have docker and Node installed to proceed

First we clone the repo and change IP address to your docker host.

```javascript

clone the repo

git clone https://github.com/hnasr/javascript_playground.git

change to the kafka directory

cd javascript_playground/kafka

edit docker-compose.yml, producer.js, topics.js and consumer.js change the 192.168.7.179 with your docker host ip.

cat starthere.txt ```

Spin up Zookeeper and Kafka containers using Docker commands.

```javascript services: zookeeper: image: zookeeper hostname: zookeeper ports: - 2181:2181 volumes: - zookeeper_data:/data - zookeeper_datalog:/datalog

kafka: image: ches/kafka restart: always hostname: localhost ports: - "9092:9092" environment: KAFKA_ADVERTISED_HOST_NAME: 192.168.7.179 ZOOKEEPER_IP: 192.168.7.179 KAFKA_OFFSETS_TOPIC_REPLICATION_FACTOR: 1 ALLOW_PLAINTEXT_LISTENER: 1 depends_on: - zookeeper volumes: - kafka_data:/kafka

volumes: zookeeper_data: zookeeper_datalog: kafka_data: ```

javascript docker-compose up

Create a topic called MyUsers with two partitions, we will use kafkajs module to connect to the kafka broker.

```javascript //const Kafka = require("kafkajs").Kafka const {Kafka} = require("kafkajs")

run(); async function run(){ try { const kafka = new Kafka({ "clientId": "myapp", "brokers" :["192.168.7.179:9092"] })

    const admin = kafka.admin();
    console.log("Connecting.....")
    await admin.connect()
    console.log("Connected!")
    //A-M, N-Z
    await admin.createTopics({
        "topics": [{
            "topic" : "MyUsers",
            "numPartitions": 2
        }]
    })
    console.log("Created Successfully!")
    await admin.disconnect();
}
catch(ex)
{
    console.error(`Something bad happened ${ex}`)
}
finally{
    process.exit(0);
}

} ```

javascript node topics.js

Produce some messages with a producer, the messages are user names. I have the messages starting with letters

```javascript //const Kafka = require("kafkajs").Kafka const {Kafka} = require("kafkajs") const msg = process.argv[2]; run(); async function run(){ try { const kafka = new Kafka({ "clientId": "myapp", "brokers" :["192.168.7.179:9092"] })

    const producer = kafka.producer();
    console.log("Connecting.....")
    await producer.connect()
    console.log("Connected!")
    //A-M 0 , N-Z 1 
    const partition = msg[0] < "N" ? 0 : 1;
    const result =  await producer.send({
        "topic": "Users",
        "messages": [
            {
                "value": msg,
                "partition": partition
            }
        ]
    })

    console.log(`Send Successfully! ${JSON.stringify(result)}`)
    await producer.disconnect();
}
catch(ex)
{
    console.error(`Something bad happened ${ex}`)
}
finally{
    process.exit(0);
}

} ```

javascript node producer.js Adam node producer.js Zack

javascript HusseinMac:kafka HusseinNasser$ node producer.js Adam Connecting..... Connected! Send Successfully! [{"topicName":"MyUsers","partition":0,"errorCode":0,"offset":"0","timestamp":"-1"}] HusseinMac:kafka HusseinNasser$ node producer.js Zack Connecting..... Connected! Send Successfully! [{"topicName":"MyUsers","partition":1,"errorCode":0,"offset":"0","timestamp":"-1"}]

Implement a consumer that subscribes to the topic and handles messages with long polling.

Note that I hard coded a consumer group name “test” in the consumer.js file. Running the consumer.js file will create a new consumer on the MyUsers topic and it will be responsible for both partitions. You can note this from the response"memberAssignment”:{“MyUsers”:[0,1]}

javascript HusseinMac:kafka HusseinNasser$ node consumer.js Connecting..... Connected! {"level":"INFO","timestamp":"2025-04-13T14:29:36.102Z","logger":"kafkajs","message":"[Consumer] Starting","groupId":"test"} {"level":"INFO","timestamp":"2025-04-13T14:29:58.411Z","logger":"kafkajs","message":"[Runner] Consumer has joined the group","groupId":"test","memberId":"myapp-901679c6-034c-4efd-bc4d-cb5fc5bc9e6e","leaderId":"myapp-901679c6-034c-4efd-bc4d-cb5fc5bc9e6e","isLeader":true,"memberAssignment":{"MyUsers":[0,1]},"groupProtocol":"RoundRobinAssigner","duration":22307} RVD Msg Adam on partition 0 RVD Msg Zack on partition 1

Now assume we run another consumer, which will also have the same group. Kafka will rebalance the group and assign a partition for each consumer so they parallel process.

Note the memberAssignment property for each consumer.

```javascript HusseinMac:kafka HusseinNasser$ node consumer.js (consumer 1) {"level":"ERROR","timestamp":"2025-04-13T14:31:09.360Z","logger":"kafkajs","message":"[Connection] Response Heartbeat(key: 12, version: 0)","broker":"192.168.7.179:9092","clientId":"myapp","error":"The group is rebalancing, so a rejoin is needed","correlationId":39,"size":6} {"level":"ERROR","timestamp":"2025-04-13T14:31:09.361Z","logger":"kafkajs","message":"[Runner] The group is rebalancing, re-joining","groupId":"test","memberId":"myapp-901679c6-034c-4efd-bc4d-cb5fc5bc9e6e","error":"The group is rebalancing, so a rejoin is needed","retryCount":0,"retryTime":308} {"level":"INFO","timestamp":"2025-04-13T14:31:09.382Z","logger":"kafkajs","message":"[Runner] Consumer has joined the group","groupId":"test","memberId":"myapp-901679c6-034c-4efd-bc4d-cb5fc5bc9e6e","leaderId":"myapp-901679c6-034c-4efd-bc4d-cb5fc5bc9e6e","isLeader":true,"memberAssignment":{"MyUsers":[1]},"groupProtocol":"RoundRobinAssigner","duration":21}

HusseinMac:kafka HusseinNasser$ node consumer.js (consumer 2) Connecting..... Connected! {"level":"INFO","timestamp":"2025-04-13T14:31:07.599Z","logger":"kafkajs","message":"[Consumer] Starting","groupId":"test"} {"level":"INFO","timestamp":"2025-04-13T14:31:09.383Z","logger":"kafkajs","message":"[Runner] Consumer has joined the group","groupId":"test","memberId":"myapp-6c861d03-879d-4b7b-81a1-1e2cd1c15c83","leaderId":"myapp-901679c6-034c-4efd-bc4d-cb5fc5bc9e6e","isLeader":false,"memberAssignment":{"MyUsers":[0]},"groupProtocol":"RoundRobinAssigner","duration":1783} ```

Let us publish one message for each partition and see what happens.

javascript node producer.js Adamy node producer.js Zackery

```javascript (consumer 1) RVD Msg Zackery on partition 1 (consumer 2) RVD Msg Adamy on partition 0

```

What happens if more consumers than partitions are available? As per testing, new consumers won’t get any partitions assigned. But a consumer group rebalance may reassign partitions.

Kafka Pros and Cons

By understanding the architecture and design of Apache Kafka we know the fact it is performs well for writes (producing messages), because of the append-only nature. And having the consumer aware of the position to where to read from makes reads also fast. Kafka scales well with partitioning and handle fault tolerant with the distributed nature.

However, no software is free of limitations, with all these features added to Kafka, complexity is unavoidable. Producers needs to be aware of the partitions which introduces complexity in producing messages. The need for distributed architecture, replication introduces depedancies on an external component (Zookeeper) which adds more complexity and even latency. All of this makes Kafka difficult to install, maintain and manage.

Note that Kafka 4.0 that was release in March 2025 has completely removed Zookeeper in favor of a raft based replication between brokers.

Conclusion

Now that you know the basics of Apache Kafka, you will understand its power and its limitations. That is the most important thing. Anything on top of Kafka uses these fundamentals.

If you enjoyed this article, check out my backend and database courses.

https://stas.layer3.press/articles/c11f511b-29f5-4612-a308-004c44183c7b

@ 90c656ff:9383fd4e

Millions of people around the world still lack access to basic banking services, whether due to lack of infrastructure, bureaucratic requirements, or economic instability in their countries. Bitcoin emerges as an innovative solution to this problem, allowing anyone with internet access to have control over their money without relying on banks or governments. By offering an open and accessible financial system, Bitcoin becomes a powerful tool for global financial inclusion.

• The problem of financial exclusion

In many developing countries, a large portion of the population does not have a bank account. This can happen for several reasons, such as:

01 - Lack of access to banks: Many communities, especially in rural areas, do not have nearby financial institutions.

02 - Bureaucratic requirements: Some banks require specific documentation or a credit history that many people cannot provide.

03 - High costs: Banking fees can be prohibitive for those with low incomes.

04 - Economic and political instability: In countries with high inflation or unstable governments, banks may not be a safe option for storing money.

These challenges leave millions of people on the margins of the financial system, unable to save, invest, or carry out transactions efficiently.

• Bitcoin as an alternative

Bitcoin addresses many of the issues of financial exclusion by offering an accessible and decentralized system. With Bitcoin, anyone with a mobile phone and internet access can store and transfer money without needing a bank. Key advantages include:

01 - Global accessibility: Bitcoin can be used anywhere in the world, regardless of the user's location.

02 - No intermediaries: Unlike banks that impose fees and rules, Bitcoin allows direct transactions between people.

03 - Low-cost international transfers: Sending money to another country can be expensive and slow with traditional methods, while Bitcoin offers a faster and more affordable alternative.

04 - Protection against inflation: In countries with unstable currencies, Bitcoin can be used as a store of value, protecting the population’s purchasing power.

• Use cases in financial inclusion

Bitcoin is already being used to promote financial inclusion in various parts of the world. Some examples include:

01 - Africa and Latin America: In countries like Nigeria, Venezuela, and Argentina, where inflation is high and access to U.S. dollars is limited, many people use Bitcoin to preserve their money and make international transactions.

02 - International remittances: Workers sending money to their families abroad avoid the high fees of traditional transfer companies by using Bitcoin.

03 - Digital microeconomy: Small merchants and freelancers without access to bank accounts can receive payments in Bitcoin directly and securely.

• Challenges to financial inclusion with Bitcoin

Despite its advantages, Bitcoin adoption as a tool for financial inclusion still faces some challenges, such as:

01 - Internet access: Many impoverished regions still lack adequate digital infrastructure.

02 - Financial education: Greater knowledge of the technology and best security practices is needed for broader adoption.

03 - Price volatility: Value fluctuations can make Bitcoin difficult to use for everyday expenses, especially in countries where people live on unstable incomes.

In summary, Bitcoin offers a viable solution for millions of people excluded from the traditional financial system. By providing global access, low-cost transactions, and protection from inflation, it becomes a powerful instrument for promoting financial inclusion. However, for its full potential to be realized, it is essential to invest in digital education and expand technological infrastructure, enabling more people to achieve financial autonomy through Bitcoin.

Thank you very much for reading this far. I hope everything is well with you, and sending a big hug from your favorite Bitcoiner maximalist from Madeira. Long live freedom!

@ c1831fbe:de4b39bf

What follows is my best effort to recall the details of an arguably supernatural encounter I experienced almost sixty years ago. I've told this story many times before, and while my recollection may not be perfect in every detail, my account is real and substantively factual.

It was early one long ago morning, in that twilit between-time shortly before dawn. As I dangled precariously in a quasi-aware state, hovering on the knife edge between wakefulness and sleep, I was transported in a dream to another place and time. Was it the Mediterranean coast? Perhaps ancient Greece?

In my mind's eye, I found myself climbing a rather steep, rocky hillside overlooking a sparkling bright blue sea. Ahead of me, and slightly higher, was what appeared to be a young shepherd boy, leading me ever higher up the hill.

As we wove our way upward,

skirting rocky outcroppings and zig-zagging because of the steepness of the slope, I heard the boy chanting:

"Ata, Ata, Archontos, Ata, Ata, Echousi, Ata, Ata, Archousi"

He kept repeating the mantra, over and over:

"Ata, Ata, Archontos, Ata, Ata, Echousi, Ata, Ata, Archousi"

\~ \~ \~

"Ata, Ata, Archontos, Ata, Ata, Echousi, Ata, Ata, Archousi"

I listened for a few cycles, and then took up the chant myself. After several attempts, when at last I got it right, the shepherd boy turned, looking back at me and smiling broadly to signal that I had finally mastered the cadence and the words.

Then I awoke.

Because my dream had been so vivid and unusual, I immediately found a pencil and paper to write down the chant phonetically before I could forget it.

A few days passed.

Life was busy. Then I remembered my friend in grad school, studying biblical Greek. That weekend, I went and hung out with him while he worked his night job at the college heating plant. Between his rounds inspecting and managing the steam boilers keeping students from freezing to death in the Arctic Midwest winter, I told him about my strange dream.

Pulling out an exhaustive Greek lexicon, one by one, my knowledgeable friend looked up the words from my dream, interpreting each according to its verb conjugation, tense, and mood.

"Ata, Ata" had no discernible meaning; we soon concluded that it was probably just meaningless vocables, added to give the chant rhythm and substance. My friend moved on to the first recognizable word of the chant...

"Archontos" - "They are ruled."

OK, so far, so good. He checked the next word:

"Echousi" - "They shed blood."

Hmmmm... This chant is beginning to appear to be more than random sounds.

"Archousi" - "They rule."

At this point, I almost fell out of my chair in shock. Far from being a meaningless chant, this cycle—repeating again and again—is the seemingly never-ending story of the entirety of human history...

"They Are Ruled, They Shed Blood, They Rule."

\~ \~ \~

"They Are Ruled, They Shed Blood, They Rule."

This concise mantra perfectly captures the endlessly repeating cycle of oppression, revolt, and revolution that always leaves us with a fresh set of oppressors all too ready to replace the last.

Who will rescue us?

Who will redeem us from this endless tedious cycle into which we have been born?

A long lifetime of study and reflection has persuaded me that this deadly cycle can and ultimately will be broken. If we follow the teachings of Jesus; if we love one another and live together in voluntary, local societies, serving each other; I am persuaded that we can break free of this desperately destructive cycle of endlessly seeking to dominate one another. It's past time for us to enter into a mutually beneficial life in the Kingdom of our Creator-God Jesus, the most authentically benevolent King the universe has ever known.

stories #politics #Christianity #supernatural #strange

@ 5edbd885:5fbc291e

Because Bitcoin operates outside traditional financial and political systems, engaging with it can create cognitive dissonance.

This uneasy tension is felt in the space between a lifetime of systemic conditioning and the reality of a protocol that functions beyond anything we have ever known.

Bitcoin challenges deeply ingrained assumptions about what money is, who should control it, and how trust is established in society. 

Many initially reject it because Bitcoin breaks the mental models we’ve relied on for understanding value, authority, and trust. 

It’s not just adopting a new system; it’s detaching from the old one and any -ism we may personally identify with.

Before we dive in I would like to make an important note about our current system.

Modern Fiat is Not Capitalism

Capitalism is an economic system in which private individuals or businesses own and control the means of production, distribution, and exchange of goods and services, rather than the state.

The main features of this system are limited government intervention, a free market economy, and competition.

While we may believe we live in a capitalistic society, reality is very different:

• Governments Intervention: Governments intervene in free markets primarily through monetary expansion (money printing) and capital controls.

• Inflation and Redistribution: Printing increases the money supply, causing inflation that erodes purchasing power unevenly. Those who receive new money first gain at the expense of later recipients. Capital controls restrict market flows, distorting asset and currency prices.

• Cantillon Effect and Concentration: These mechanisms concentrate wealth and economic power among government insiders and favored corporations, who gain preferential access to resources. This leads to growing government influence and corporate monopolies.

• Systemic Distortions: Such interventions stifle innovation, reduce market competition, and undermine price signals essential to free market functioning.

• Therefore: Our modern fiat monetary system is not free market capitalism.

To quote Jeff Booth, from first principles:

> “In a free market, prices fall to the marginal cost of production; if they are not falling, we do not live in a free market. Communism and capitalism are the same system under manipulated money.”

Bitcoin is the first opportunity for humanity to experience a true free market where prices fall—a reality beyond fiat altogether.

Let’s explore how Bitcoin differs from fiat-based systems and economic theories.

Bitcoin vs. Major -isms

| Feature | Capitalism | Communism | Libertarianism | Bitcoin | | ------------------------- | ------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------- | | Ownership Model | Private, profit-driven | Collective, state-owned | Private, voluntary exchange | Individual, self-sovereign | | Control of Money | Central banks & private institutions | State-controlled | Privatized or gold-backed | Decentralized, algorithmic issuance | | Value Flow | Favors asset owners | Centralized and controlled redistribution | Market-driven | Distributed to all network participants | | Ideological Basis | Market efficiency, competition | Class struggle, equality | Individual freedom, non-intervention | Neutral protocol, transparency, free market | | Governance Structure | Market and government interplay | Centralized planning | Minimal state | Consensus among decentralized nodes | | Inflation Policy | Targeted via central banking | Controlled by state | Opposed to fiat inflation | Hard-capped supply: 21 million BTC | | Censorship Resistance | Low to moderate (depends on regime) | Low | Medium, still requires trust | Very high—no central chokepoint | | Accessibility | Varies by class and location | Controlled by state allocation | Varies by market access | Global, permissionless | | Moral Foundation | Efficiency and growth | Equity and solidarity | Autonomy and property rights | Mathematical integrity, sovereignty, transparency |

Bitcoin is not an -ism or a fiat system.

I don't see it as a way to make more fiat paper money either.

It’s a system outside the system that breaks all of our previous mental models.

A truly interdependent reality where the creativity, productivity, gifts, talents, and abilities of one serves all.

Sovereign individuals in service of the collective and vice-versa.

The Difficulty Categorizing Free Thinkers

In different conversations, and while discussing Bitcoin with non-Bitcoiners, I’ve been asked if I am an anarchist, capitalist, communist, liberal, or a libertarian.

Since I don’t identify with any political leaning or traditional ideology, I was sincerely confused when this first started happening—but now I see why.

Bitcoiners are notoriously difficult to place into political categories because their convictions often cut across traditional ideological boundaries.

To the outside observer, this can appear contradictory: a Bitcoiner might criticize the Federal Reserve like a libertarian, value personal personal sovereignty like an anarchist, and believe in sound money like a gold-standard capitalist. 

These labels, however, fail to capture the deeper thread—I believe our views are aligned with a protocol in service of humanity, and shaped by a shared belief in a system that values humans rather than fiat-based incentives.

Bitcoin challenges the default left/right binary and exposes just how much our frameworks are built around centralized systems, division, and control.

When those systems are removed—as they are in Bitcoin—any traditional world view falls apart, along with all the labels and polarization that come with it. 

To some, this may be why Bitcoiners seem ‘radical’ or ‘religious,’ because we have stepped outside their frame of reality entirely.

This protocol is not a revolution in the name of an ideology—it’s a revolution in the absence of one known to modern history.

Unlearning the Past, Embracing the Now

What makes Bitcoin truly disruptive isn’t just its technology—it invites us to question assumptions we didn’t even know we were making.

I still catch myself trying to compare Bitcoin to a "known" sometimes in this ongoing process of unlearning.

I think part of this evolution is catching myself and remembering, we are at the forefront of a new reality.

Our individual choices and actions are shaping what the post-fiat world will look like.

While for some, this will feel empowering and exciting, for others, this shift can feel unsettling, even threatening, as it calls into question the stability of the familiar.

This is one of the reasons why I see Bitcoin as being the initiator of an individual and collective spiritual awakening.

I can only encourage you to embrace the change—be the change—a powerful manifestor ushering in a new paradigm ✨

@ a4043831:3b64ac02

Money is emotional. It’s not just numbers on a spreadsheet. It’s about peace of mind. Vacations. College. Retirement. And sometimes… It's about stress. Even the smartest families make money mistakes. Not because they don’t care. But because life is busy. Financial planning can feel overwhelming. And it’s easy to put it off until “later.” But the truth is: later turns into never.

Here are five common money missteps families make—and how to avoid them, starting today.

1. Spending Without a Plan

You’re out running errands. You grab a latte. Order takeout. Buy a couple things online. Nothing big. But by the end of the week? The bank account’s hurting. Sound familiar?

Many families spend without a clear plan. They don’t know exactly how much they earn, where their money is going, or what’s left for savings. It’s a recipe for stress.

How to avoid it: Start simple. Track your income. List your expenses. Identify where you can cut back. Use a budgeting app or just a notebook. The key is consistency. Build awareness around spending.

Working with a financial advisor makes this even easier. Passive Capital Management helps families create realistic, stress-free budgets that actually work.

2. Delaying Retirement Savings

Let’s be honest—retirement feels far away. Especially when you’re dealing with daycare, car payments, and rising grocery bills. But here’s the catch: the earlier you start, the less you have to save. Why? Two words: compound interest. The money you invest today earns interest. And then that interest earns interest. Over time, your money grows exponentially.

How to avoid it: Contribute to a 401(k), IRA, or both—right now. Even if it's just $50 a month. Got a workplace plan? Take full advantage of any employer match.

And don’t “set it and forget it.” Revisit your plan regularly with a trusted advisor. PCM’s retirement planning services help families build smart, flexible strategies tailored to their long-term goals.

3. Overusing Credit Cards

Swipe now, worry later. That’s the trap. Credit cards can be useful but dangerous when used for emotional or unplanned purchases. High-interest rates can turn a $100 dinner into a $300 debt headache.

How to avoid it: Use credit cards for planned expenses only. And pay off the balance in full each month. Avoid minimum payments—they just feed the debt cycle. If you’re already in credit card trouble, don’t panic.

Passive Capital Management works with families to create smart debt reduction plans while still saving for the future.

4. Buying Too Much House

Big house. Fancy kitchen. Bonus room. Sounds great, right? Until the mortgage, property taxes, repairs, insurance, utilities, and maintenance come crashing in. Many families make the mistake of maxing out their home budget. It feels like an investment—but in reality, it can squeeze your finances for decades.

How to avoid it: Buy what you need, not what impresses others. Be realistic about ongoing costs. And remember: your mortgage should never eat up your emergency savings or retirement goals. Before making a big move, talk to a financial expert.

PCM helps clients evaluate housing costs in the context of their full financial picture.

5. Skipping the Emergency Fund

Unexpected car repair? Out-of-pocket medical bill? Job loss? Life happens. And when it does, many families don’t have a cushion. They rely on credit cards or drain their retirement accounts just to stay afloat.

How to avoid it: Build an emergency fund with 3–6 months of essential expenses. Keep it in a separate, easy-access savings account. This fund is your safety net—don’t touch it unless it’s truly an emergency.

PCM includes emergency fund planning as a core part of every family’s financial plan. Because peace of mind isn’t optional—it’s essential.

Final Thoughts

Nobody gets it right 100% of the time. But small, consistent changes can transform your family’s financial future. The good news? You don’t have to do it alone. Passive Capital Management offers straightforward, judgment-free guidance to help families avoid costly mistakes and make confident money moves. Whether you need help building a budget, planning for retirement, or finally tackling your debt, PCM is ready to help.

Take the first step. Your future self will thank you. Talk to a PCM Advisor Today.

@ e97aaffa:2ebd765d

Quando tentamos simplificar/ilustrar algo que é extremamente complexo, pode resultar em algo distorcido. Apesar do resultado sair distorcido, continua a ser a melhor representação, temos é que ter em mente que essa distorção existe quando analisamos essa informação.

O maior exemplo, é o mapa mundi, quando transformamos uma esfera em algo plano, é natural que crie distorções, como quanto mais perto dos polos, os países são sobredimensionados em relação aos que estão mais perto da linha do Equador.

Esta infografia criada pelo Saylor é comumente utilizada, mas esta deve ser utilizada com moderação, porque a informação também está distorcida.

Assim, sempre que alguém utiliza estes dados para fazer análises, deve estar ciente que existem distorções. Primeiro, em alguns ativos os valores são impossíveis de calcular, são apenas estimativas. Já foram feitos vários estudos, e sempre com valores bastantes díspares.

Depois, esta infografia simplifica demasiado, não sendo visível a sobreposição de ativos, por exemplo, as empresas possuem outros ativos, isso significa, que não podemos fazer somas simples. Ou seja, se somarmos as Equities (115T) e os Bonds(300T) não resulta em $415 Triliões de riqueza, o real valor é inferior.

Vamos a dois bons exemplos:

A Berkshire Hathaway, a empresa de Warren Buffett, que o seu atual core business é investir em outras empresas. Apesar de neste momento, ter uma enorme liquidez, está a aguardar pelo momento certo para voltar ao mercado.

A outra empresa é MicroStrategy, que gradualmente está-se a transformar num banco Bitcoin. O seu negócio inicial, começa a ser insignificante, para a sua atual dimensão, está a fazer um percurso muito similar à Berkshire Hathaway, enquanto a Berkshire Hathaway redirecionou o seu negócio para o investimento em ações, a MicroStrategy para o Bitcoin.

Um erro comum entre alguns bitcoiners quando fazem estimativas baseada nesta tabela, é acreditarem que o crescimento do valor do Bitcoin, vai resultar numa redução do valor das Equities. Isso não vai acontecer, porque as empresas também vão possuir Bitcoin na sua tesouraria, logo se o valor do bitcoin subir, as equities também o vão.

Onde o Bitcoin vai certamente impactar, é nas Bonds e no Real Estate.

Assim para concluir, esta infografia é interessante para fazer cálculos ou análises, mas não podemos esquecer que contém distorções.

@ c913b8e3:8704332c

Absurdities from Finland

Hydrogen, Railways, and Datacenters: Just an Armchair Economist Ranting (Expect Zero Value)

"Next year we'll have growth!" they promise. Again. And again. And again.

The "economists" who yell and preach about this are just state puppets. The track record: 17-18 years of zero growth.

Finland, 1980-2025: Real GDP growth stagnant (red) while prices still bite (blue). After 2008 Red line - 17 years of “wait till next year.” — IMF DataMapper, April 2025

Why do the experts always get it wrong? Here in Finland, everybody is blinded by Keynesianism.

• Low interest rates

• High spending

Even those I once thought had "common sense" have become blind. They mistake subsidized sectors for "growth." So in love with the state, they ignore incentives, time preference, and basic economics.

New brave Finland - Hydrogen economy (1)

Launch event: free champagne, no customers. Taxpayers pay.

“Finland’s hydrogen economy is stuttering - there’s still no real market for it, so officials insist it must be manufactured with policy decrees and taxpayer subsidies.”

“Once science has to serve, not truth, but the interests of a state, argument exists only to vindicate the approved belief.” — The Road to Serfdom, ch. 11

Malinvestment Musical. Subsidies shuffle capital from things consumers actually want, such as lower electricity prices. Healthcare that works? I honestly don’t even know; Finnish people have become lazy and idiotic.

The Cantillon effect from this “green stimulus” showers money on consultants and lobbyists first; the average worker gets the hangover in the form of higher power bills and grocery prices.

Only companies living on subsidies call it “the future.”

(Sometimes I wish I was an engineer so I could do shit instead of just whining like a proper economist. At least then I could build something useful instead of just talking shit. Even with my limited knowledge of physics, I understand hydrogen is an inefficient way to store electricity - the laws of thermodynamics don't care about government subsidies.)

Hurray, we love the railways (2)

NATO will bring investments to Finland - Hurray!

We must rip up perfectly good tracks so we can afford to move troops we can no longer afford.

War talk has clouded judgment: when “national security” is the slogan, cost-benefit math is treason. As Hayek warned, the road to serfdom is always paved with strategic necessity.

• What, exactly, is a "sufficient" defense for five million Finns? (Asking this here makes you a Russian Bot, though I don't like Russia or Putin.)

• Who decides when the price tag crosses from prudent to reckless?

If hatred of an external foe sets every budget line, freedom and prosperity shrink to the margins.

In other words, the track to “strategic readiness” can be the same track to serfdom -just painted NATO blue.

When an economy flat-lines for 17 years, nothing says “revival” like swapping 1,435 mm of track for 1,520 mm - and calling it growth.

Finnish economists and "liberalists" are celebrating this? (pics in the end, can't read that X much, it has become so idiotic).

l

The Ministry of Transport has estimated that the cost of conversion work for the railway section between Haparanda and Oulu alone will exceed 1.5 billion euros. The distance is about 150 kilometers. (ESTIMATION…)

New Brave Finland – Datacenter Dissonance (3)

Well, our little minister was not involved so bad, bad, and bad!

Apparently, the box is evil if it says TikTok, but awesome if the logo reads Meta or Google. Hey, all of them are shit, just producing brain rot and stealing our data.

Low temps, reliable grid, sparse population - Finland is a logical server-farm host (shithole). But let's call it what it is: a capital-intensive, low-employment utility business. Selling it as a "high-tech jobs boom" is wishful accounting. The politicians like to yell that these investments are "Billions and Billions," yes, but how much stays in Finland? Some construction jobs and a handful of cleaners? Fucking exquisite.

"Digital Red Menace!" Lohjalainen Harri panics about Chinese bytes corrupting Finnish soil. His brilliant plan? Pray the project fails "Lohjan malliin." Nothing says "economic prosperity" like hoping jobs don't materialize! Peak Finnish paradox: pray for investments and fumble them with bureaucracy or nationalist paranoia.

What cybersecurity threat do these server farms pose to Finland? Absolutely fucking none. The data doesn't care where it sits. TikTok videos don't turn into communist spies when stored in Kouvola/Lohja. Absurd and idiotic.

Yes TikTok is brainrot and stupid shit, you have to be an idiot to install that app on your phone, but it's consumer choice - if you want it then go for it, fucking idiot. Same goes for Facebook, Instagram, all that dopamine garbage.

The Datacenter Paradox: Finland needs investment but fears investors. It celebrates clean industry then hyperventilates about who owns the servers. Classic malinvestment by decree - politicians picking winners.

Datacenters can be fine investments… BUT let's be honest about the tradeoffs. All the value goes abroad. Every megawatt sent to datacenters is not available for households or actual productive industry. Basic economics: when datacenters consume 5-10% of Finland's electricity, prices rise for everyone else. Your heating bill subsidizes Facebook's server cooling. Another brilliant example of the invisible tax of political favoritism.

The Bitcoin Alternative No One Will Discuss: Here's the real irony - datacenters can't be easily switched off during peak demand, creating grid rigidity. Bitcoin mining farms, meanwhile, could be turned on/off based on grid needs, serving as perfect complementary loads for Finland's growing but inconsistent renewable energy (wind/solar). Miners would pay premium rates during excess generation and shut down during shortages - a genuine market solution! But no, can't have sound money solutions in Finland. Better to have Googles servers running 24/7 regardless of grid conditions than allow the evil Bitcoin to improve our renewable energy economics. God forbid we actually use a solution that simultaneously strengthens the grid, supports renewables, AND promotes sound money. That might accidentally lead to common sense, and we can't have that in Finland.

General Observations: The Finnish Decay

Finland is slowly becoming like southern Europe, where nothing gets done on time. We used to laugh at how inefficient and idiotic it is there, but it is now the same here. I got a reply from my Bank after 4-5 months of sending a message. Asking for offers? Wait 3-4 months in some cases (I had this with garbage service). Need a solid service man? Let's see if somebody is free in 2 weeks? Well, I am also becoming like this with my business; nobody even cares.

Rotting services and entertainment

Hard to imagine our restaurant industry was almost on par with Sweden and Denmark just +5 years ago. Today? How many good restaurants have quit? How many Michelin stars have we lost?

Well, how about concerts? Our biggest stadium this summer will host Iron Maiden in June and Robbie Williams in September. WTF? Even the Baltic states can attract bigger names than Finland, this is becoming total shithole in every aspect.

Why?

COVID, collapsing purchasing power, bureaucracy cancer, tax asphyxiation, war hysteria, sheepish compliance, and state dependency.

The entrepreneurial drive that once built world-leading companies has withered. Why innovate when bureaucrats decide winners? Why take risks when failure is punished extremely hard (lifelong debt prison, and shame) and success is taxed away?

The result: economic stagnation rationalized as "social stability" and "equality."

Economic literacy has collapsed. Even the economists here don't grasp the basic concepts, so how on earth could the average citizen? The scariest part is that they don't even care. They've outsourced their economic thinking to the state, the same way they've outsourced their responsibility and risk management. The blind leading the blind, straight to economic mediocrity.

The Finnish Decay: When Will We Say "Enough"?

It would be a good idea to write a book in a similar style to Lawrence Lepard's Big Print: What Happened To America And How Sound Money Will Fix It.

Make readers mad! Advocate for hard money and small government.

Problems? and What's next? Recession 1990s → Nokia Mirage → Euro‑Zone Handcuffs → GFC & The Silent Depression → Everyday Decay → Complete state dependency or get mad?

A glimmer of hope: Despite the lost decades, there's a spark in Finland's youth. They hustle and show more entrepreneurial spirit, saving habits, and investment interest than their parents.

In 1999, we were a top country in education, technology, healthcare, and debt contracted on top of that we were one of the safest places to live, we didn’t lock the bikes and even the doors…

Now look at us?

When will Finns wake up and say enough?

As Hayek warned: "A movement whose main promise is the relief from responsibility cannot but be antimoral in its effect, however lofty the ideals." We've outsourced our moral obligations to an impersonal state, weakening "both the willingness to bear responsibility and the consciousness that it is our own individual duty."

We need a hard money and personal responsibility renaissance.

Coming soon: "How Sound Money and Small Government Can Save Finland From Its Slow-Motion Suicide"

News and sources:

I recently finished reading F.A. Hayek's "The Road to Serfdom" (1944). The similarities between Hayek's warnings and Finland's current course are striking. Europe and Finland are ramping up defence spending to ridiculous levels, now even talking over 5% GDP levels, which is total insanity. What would be enough for defence? We have little freedoms left here in Finland (and Europe), and in pursuit of “security,” we might lose it all. Central planners who believe they can direct an economy better than market forces are just clowns, from hydrogen to datacenter politics. What market forces have we left in Finland? I can breath freely? Soon that will be taxed too. Next we have CBDC coming up in EU.

I highly recommend reading "The Road to Serfdom." Its analysis of how good intentions lead to economic ruin remains as relevant in 2025 as it was in 1944. I feel like a total idiot for not reading it before.

Read 27 books so far this year, thx for Jack Dorsey “reading challenge” I started this in March, aim was 50 book but now we aim to 100, so fucking good to read books!

New brave Finland - Hydrogen economy (1) ://www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-2000011199663.html

Railways (2): https://yle.fi/a/74-20161549 and https://yle.fi/a/74-20161793

Datacenters (3): https://yle.fi/a/74-20160436

Hope its not russian or Chinese? Harri (4) https://www.hs.fi/suomi/art-2000011229295.html

https://youtu.be/6XbG6aIUlog

@ 7460b7fd:4fc4e74b

背景：WhatsApp的号码验证与运营商合作关系

作为一款基于手机号码注册的即时通信应用，WhatsApp的账号验证严重依赖全球电信运营商提供的短信或电话服务。这意味着，当用户注册或在新设备登录WhatsApp时，WhatsApp通常会向用户的手机号码发送SMS短信验证码或发起语音电话验证。这一流程利用了传统电信网络的基础设施，例如通过SS7（信令系统7）协议在全球范围内路由短信和电话securityaffairs.com。换句话说，WhatsApp把初始账户验证的安全性建立在电信运营商网络之上。然而，这种依赖关系也带来了隐患：攻击者可以利用电信网络的漏洞来拦截验证码。例如，研究人员早在2016年就演示过利用SS7协议漏洞拦截WhatsApp和Telegram的验证短信，从而劫持用户账户的攻击方法securityaffairs.com。由于SS7协议在全球范围内连接各国运营商，一个运营商的安全缺陷或恶意行为都可能被不法分子利用来获取他网用户的短信验证码securityaffairs.com。正因如此，有安全专家指出，仅依赖短信验证不足以保障账户安全，WhatsApp等服务提供商需要考虑引入额外机制来核实用户身份securityaffairs.com。

除了技术漏洞，基于电信运营商的验证还受到各地政策和网络环境影响。WhatsApp必须与全球各地运营商“合作”，才能将验证码送达到用户手机。然而这种“合作”在某些国家可能并不顺畅，典型例子就是中国。在中国大陆，国际短信和跨境电话常受到严格管控，WhatsApp在发送验证码时可能遭遇拦截或延迟sohu.com。因此，理解WhatsApp在中国的特殊联网和验证要求，需要将其全球验证机制与中国的电信政策和网络审查环境联系起来。下文将深入探讨为什么在中国使用WhatsApp进行号码验证时，必须开启蜂窝移动数据，并分析其中的技术逻辑和政策因素。

中国环境下的特殊问题：为何必须开启蜂窝数据？

中国的网络审查与封锁： WhatsApp自2017年起就在中国大陆遭遇严格封锁。起初，WhatsApp在华的服务受到**“GFW”（防火长城）**的部分干扰——例如曾一度只能发送文本消息，语音、视频和图片消息被封锁theguardian.com。到2017年下半年，封锁升级，很多用户报告在中国完全无法使用WhatsApp收发任何消息theguardian.com。中国官方将WhatsApp与Facebook、Telegram等西方通信平台一同屏蔽，视作对国家网络主权的挑战theguardian.com。鉴于此，在中国境内直接访问WhatsApp的服务器（无论通过Wi-Fi还是本地互联网）都会被防火长城所阻断。即使用户收到了短信验证码，WhatsApp客户端也无法在没有特殊连接手段的情况下与服务器完成验证通信。因此，单纯依赖Wi-Fi等本地网络环境往往无法完成WhatsApp的注册或登陆。很多用户经验表明，在中国使用WhatsApp时需要借助VPN等工具绕过审查，同时尽可能避免走被审查的网络路径sohu.com。

强制Wi-Fi热点与连接策略： 除了国家级的封锁，用户所连接的局域网络也可能影响WhatsApp验证。许多公共Wi-Fi（如机场、商场）采取强制门户认证（captive portal），用户需登录认证后才能上网。对此，WhatsApp在客户端内置了检测机制，当发现设备连入这类强制Wi-Fi热点而无法访问互联网时，会提示用户忽略该Wi-Fi并改用移动数据faq.whatsapp.com。WhatsApp要求对此授予读取Wi-Fi状态的权限，以便在检测到被拦截时自动切换网络faq.whatsapp.com。对于中国用户来说，即便所连Wi-Fi本身联网正常，由于GFW的存在WhatsApp依然可能视之为“不通畅”的网络环境。这也是WhatsApp官方指南中强调：如果Wi-Fi网络无法连接WhatsApp服务，应直接切换到手机的移动数据网络faq.whatsapp.com。在中国，由于本地宽带网络对WhatsApp的封锁，蜂窝数据反而成为相对可靠的通道——尤其在搭配VPN时，可以避开本地ISP的审查策略，实现与WhatsApp服务器的通信sohu.com。

国际短信的运营商限制： 使用移动数据还有助于解决短信验证码接收难题。中国的手机运营商出于防垃圾短信和安全考虑，默认对国际短信和境外来电进行一定限制。许多中国用户发现，注册WhatsApp时迟迟收不到验证码短信，原因可能在于运营商将来自国外服务号码的短信拦截或过滤sohu.com。例如，中国移动默认关闭国际短信接收，需要用户主动发送短信指令申请开通sohu.com。具体而言，中国移动用户需发送文本“11111”到10086（或10085）来开通国际短信收发权限；中国联通和电信用户也被建议联系运营商确认未屏蔽国际短信sohu.com。若未进行这些设置，WhatsApp发送的验证码短信可能根本无法抵达用户手机。在这种情况下，WhatsApp提供的备用方案是语音电话验证，即通过国际电话拨打用户号码并播报验证码。然而境外来电在中国也可能遭到运营商的安全拦截，特别是当号码被认为可疑时zhuanlan.zhihu.com。因此，中国用户经常被建议开启手机的蜂窝数据和漫游功能，以提高验证码接收的成功率sohu.com。一方面，开启数据漫游意味着用户准备接受来自境外的通信（通常也包含短信/电话）；另一方面，在数据联网的状态下，WhatsApp可以尝试通过网络直接完成验证通信，从而减少对SMS的依赖。

移动数据的网络路径优势： 在实际案例中，一些中国WhatsApp用户报告仅在开启蜂窝数据的情况下才能完成验证。这可能归因于蜂窝网络和宽带网络在国际出口上的差异。中国移动、联通等运营商的移动数据可能走与宽带不同的网关路由，有时对跨境小流量的拦截相对宽松。此外，WhatsApp在移动数据环境中可以利用一些底层网络特性。例如，WhatsApp可能通过移动网络发起某些专用请求或利用运营商提供的号码归属地信息进行辅助验证（虽然具体实现未公开，但这是业界讨论的可能性）。总之，在中国特殊的网络环境下，开启蜂窝数据是确保WhatsApp验证流程顺利的重要一步。这一步不仅是为了基本的互联网连接，也是为了绕开种种对国际短信和应用数据的拦截限制，从而与WhatsApp的全球基础设施建立必要的通讯。

PDP Context与IMSI：移动网络验证的技术细节

要理解为什么移动数据对WhatsApp验证如此关键，有必要了解移动通信网络中的一些技术细节，包括PDP Context和IMSI的概念。

PDP Context（分组数据协议上下文）： 当手机通过蜂窝网络使用数据（如4G/5G上网）时，必须先在运营商核心网中建立一个PDP上下文。这实际上就是申请开启一个数据会话，运营商将为设备分配一个IP地址，并允许其通过移动核心网访问互联网datascientest.com。PDP上下文包含了一系列参数（例如APN接入点名称、QoS等级等），描述该数据会话的属性datascientest.comdatascientest.com。简单来说，激活蜂窝数据就意味着创建了PDP上下文，设备获得了移动网络网关分配的IP地址，可以收发数据包。对于WhatsApp验证而言，只有在建立数据连接后，手机才能直接与WhatsApp的服务器交换数据，例如提交验证码、完成加密密钥协商等。如果仅有Wi-Fi而蜂窝数据关闭，且Wi-Fi环境无法连通WhatsApp服务器，那么验证过程将陷入停滞。因此，在中国场景下，开启蜂窝数据（即建立PDP数据通路）是WhatsApp客户端尝试绕过Wi-Fi限制、直接通过移动网络进行验证通信的前提faq.whatsapp.comsohu.com。值得一提的是，PDP Context的建立也表明手机在运营商网络上处于活跃状态，这对于某些验证机制（比如后述的闪信/闪呼）来说至关重要。

IMSI与MSISDN： IMSI（国际移动用户标识）和MSISDN（移动用户号码，即手机号码）是运营商网络中两个密切相关但不同的标识。IMSI是存储在SIM卡上的一串唯一数字，用于在移动网络中标识用户身份netmanias.com。当手机接入网络时，它向运营商提供IMSI以进行鉴权，运营商据此知道“是哪张SIM”的请求netmanias.com。而MSISDN则是我们平常说的手机号，用于在语音通话和短信路由中定位用户，也存储在运营商的HLR/HSS数据库中netmanias.com。运营商通过IMSI<->MSISDN的对应关系，将来自全球的短信/电话正确路由到用户手机上。WhatsApp的验证短信或电话本质上就是通过目标号码(MSISDN)寻找所属运营商网络，由该网络根据IMSI定位用户终端。一般情况下，WhatsApp应用并不直接接触IMSI这种信息，因为IMSI属于运营商网络的内部标识。然而，IMSI的存在仍然对安全产生影响。例如，**SIM卡交换（SIM Swap）**欺诈发生时，攻击者获得了受害者号码的新SIM卡，新SIM卡会有不同的IMSI，但MSISDN保持原号码不变。运营商会将原号码映射到新的IMSI，这样验证码短信就发送到了攻击者手中的SIM上。对WhatsApp而言，除非有机制检测IMSI变动，否则无法察觉用户号码背后的SIM已被盗换。部分应用在检测到SIM变化时会提示用户重新验证，这需要读取设备的IMSI信息进行比对。然而，在现代智能手机中，获取IMSI通常需要特殊权限，WhatsApp并未明确说明它有此类检测。因此，从WhatsApp角度，IMSI更多是网络侧的概念，但它提醒我们：电信级身份验证依赖于SIM的有效性。只有当正确的IMSI在网络注册、并建立了PDP数据上下文时，WhatsApp的后台服务才能确认该SIM对应的号码目前“在线”，进而可靠地发送验证信号（短信或电话）到该设备。

移动网络的信号辅助验证： 有观点认为，一些OTT应用可能利用移动网络提供的附加服务来辅助号码验证。例如，某些运营商提供号码快速验证API，当应用检测到设备在移动数据网络中时，可以向特定地址发起请求，由运营商返回当前设备的号码信息（通常通过已经建立的PDP通道）。Google等公司在部分国家与运营商合作过类似服务，实现用户免输入验证码自动完成验证。但就WhatsApp而言，没有公开证据表明其使用了运营商提供的自动号码识别API。即便如此，WhatsApp鼓励用户保持移动网络在线的做法，隐含的意义之一可能是：当手机处于蜂窝网络且数据畅通时，验证码通过率和验证成功率都会显著提升。这既包括了物理层面短信、电话能否送达，也涵盖了数据层面应用和服务器能否互通。

Flash Call机制：WhatsApp验证的新方案

针对传统SMS验证码容易被拦截、延迟以及用户体验不佳的问题，WhatsApp近年来引入了一种Flash Call（闪呼）验证机制fossbytes.com。所谓闪呼，即应用在用户验证阶段向用户的手机号发起一个非常短暂的来电：用户无需真正接听，WhatsApp会自动结束这通电话，并根据通话记录来确认是否拨通fossbytes.com。

原理与流程： 当用户选择使用闪呼验证（目前主要在Android设备上可用），WhatsApp会请求权限访问用户的通话记录fossbytes.com。随后应用拨打用户的号码，一般是一个预先设定的特定号码或号码段。由于WhatsApp后台知道它拨出的号码及通话ID，只要该未接来电出现在用户手机的通话日志中，应用即可读取并匹配最后一通来电的号码是否符合验证要求，从而确认用户持有这个号码fossbytes.com。整个过程用户无需手动输入验证码，验证通话在数秒内完成。相比6位数字短信验证码需要用户在短信和应用间切换输入，闪呼方式更加快捷无缝fossbytes.com。

优缺点分析： 闪呼验证的优势在于速度快且避免了SMS可能的延迟或拦截。一些分析指出闪呼将成为取代SMS OTP（一次性密码）的新趋势，Juniper Research预测2022年用于验证的闪呼次数将从2021年的六千万猛增到五十亿次subex.comglobaltelcoconsult.com。对于WhatsApp这样全球用户庞大的应用，闪呼可以节约大量SMS网关费用，并绕开部分运营商对国际SMS的限制。然而，闪呼也有局限：fossbytes.com首先，iOS设备由于系统安全限制，应用无法访问通话记录，因此iPhone上无法使用闪呼验证fossbytes.com。这意味着苹果用户仍需使用传统短信验证码。其次，为实现自动匹配来电号码，用户必须授予读取通话记录的权限，这在隐私上引发一些担忧fossbytes.comfossbytes.com。WhatsApp声称不会将通话记录用于验证以外的用途，号码匹配也在本地完成fossbytes.com，但考虑到母公司Meta的隐私争议，部分用户依然顾虑。第三，闪呼验证依赖语音通话路线，同样受制于电信网络质量。如果用户所处网络无法接通国际来电（比如被运营商拦截境外短振铃电话），闪呼也无法成功。此外，从运营商角度看，闪呼绕过了A2P短信计费，可能侵蚀短信营收，一些运营商开始研究识别闪呼流量的策略wholesale.orange.com。总体而言，闪呼机制体现了WhatsApp希望减轻对短信依赖的努力，它在许多国家提升了验证体验，但在中国等特殊环境，其效果仍取决于本地语音网络的开放程度。值得注意的是，中国运营商对于境外电话，尤其是这种**“零响铃”未接来电**也有防范措施，中国电信和联通用户就被建议如需接收海外来电验证，应联系客服确保未拦截海外来电hqsmartcloud.com。因此，即便WhatsApp支持闪呼，中国用户若未开启移动语音漫游或运营商许可，仍然难以通过此途径完成验证。

与SIM Swap安全性的关系： 从安全角度看，闪呼并未实质提升抵御SIM交换攻击的能力。如果攻击者成功将受害者的号码转移至自己的SIM卡上（获取新IMSI），那么无论验证码以短信还是闪呼方式发送，都会到达攻击者设备。闪呼机制能防御的是部分恶意拦截短信的行为（如恶意网关或木马读取短信），但对社工换卡没有太大帮助。WhatsApp早已提供两步验证（即设置6位PIN码）供用户自行启用，以防号码被他人重新注册时需要额外密码。然而大量用户未开启该功能。因此，闪呼更多是从用户体验和成本出发的改良，而非针对高级别攻击的防护机制。正如前文所述，真正要防御SIM Swap和SS7漏洞等系统性风险，依赖运营商的号码验证本身就是薄弱环节，需要引入更高级的身份认证手段。

SIM卡交换攻击的风险与运营商信任问题

WhatsApp和Telegram一类基于手机号认证的应用普遍面临一个安全挑战：手机号码本身并非绝对安全的身份凭证。攻击者可以通过一系列手段取得用户的号码控制权，其中SIM交换（SIM Swap）是近年高发的欺诈手法。SIM Swap通常由不法分子冒充用户，诱骗或贿赂运营商客服将目标号码的服务转移到攻击者的新SIM卡上keepnetlabs.com。一旦成功，所有发往该号码的短信和电话都转由攻击者接收，原机主的SIM卡失效。对于依赖短信/电话验证的应用来说，这意味着攻击者可以轻易获取验证码，从而重置账户并登录。近年来全球SIM Swap案件呈上升趋势，许多在线服务的账号被此攻破rte.ie。

WhatsApp并非未知晓此风险。事实上，WhatsApp在其帮助中心和安全博客中多次提醒用户开启两步验证PIN，并强调绝不向他人透露短信验证码。然而，从系统设计上讲，WhatsApp仍将信任根基放在运营商发送到用户手机的那串数字验证码上。一旦运营商端的安全被绕过（无论是内部员工作恶、社工欺诈，还是SS7网络被黑客利用securityaffairs.com），WhatsApp本身无法辨别验证码接收者是否是真正的用户。正如安全研究所Positive Technologies指出的那样，目前主要的即时通讯服务（包括WhatsApp和Telegram）依赖SMS作为主要验证机制，这使得黑客能够通过攻击电信信令网络来接管用户账户securityaffairs.com。换言之，WhatsApp被迫信任每一个参与短信/电话路由的运营商，但这个信任链条上任何薄弱环节都可能遭到利用securityaffairs.com。例如，在SIM Swap攻击中，运营商本身成为被欺骗的对象；而在SS7定位拦截攻击中，全球互联的电信网成为攻击面。在中国的场景下，虽然主要威胁来自审查而非黑客，但本质上仍是WhatsApp无法完全掌控电信网络这一事实所导致的问题。

应对这些风险，WhatsApp和Telegram等采用了一些弥补措施。除了提供用户自行设定的二次密码，两者也开始探索设备多因子的概念（如后文Telegram部分所述，利用已有登录设备确认新登录）。然而，对绝大多数首次注册或更换设备的用户来说，传统的短信/电话验证仍是唯一途径。这就是为什么在高安全需求的行业中，SMS OTP正逐渐被视为不充分securityaffairs.com。监管机构和安全专家建议对涉敏感操作采用更强验证，如专用身份应用、硬件令牌或生物识别等。WhatsApp作为大众通信工具，目前平衡了易用性与安全性，但其依赖电信运营商的验证模式在像中国这样特殊的环境下，既遇到政策阻碍，也隐藏安全短板。这一点对于决策制定者评估国外通信应用在华风险时，是一个重要考量：任何全球运营商合作机制，在中国境内都可能因为**“最后一公里”由中国运营商执行**而受到影响。无论是被拦截信息还是可能的监控窃听，这些风险都源自于底层通信网的控制权不在应用服务商手中。

Telegram登录机制的比较

作为对比，Telegram的账号登录机制与WhatsApp类似，也以手机号码为主要身份标识，但在具体实现上有一些不同之处。

多设备登录与云端代码： Telegram从设计上支持多设备同时在线（手机、平板、PC等），并将聊天内容储存在云端。这带来的一个直接好处是：当用户在新设备上登录时，Telegram会优先通过已登录的其他设备发送登录验证码。例如，用户尝试在电脑上登录Telegram，Telegram会在用户手机上的Telegram应用里推送一条消息包含登录码，而不是立即发短信accountboy.comaccountboy.com。用户只需在新设备输入从老设备上收到的代码即可完成登录。这种机制确保了只要用户至少有一个设备在线，就几乎不需要依赖运营商短信。当然，如果用户当前只有一部新设备（例如换了手机且旧设备不上线），Telegram才会退而求其次，通过SMS发送验证码到手机号。同时，Telegram也允许用户选择语音电话获取验证码，类似于WhatsApp的语音验证。当用户完全无法收到SMS时（比如在中国这种场景），语音呼叫常常比短信更可靠seatuo.com。

两步验证密码： 与WhatsApp一样，Telegram提供可选的两步验证密码。当启用此功能后，即使拿到短信验证码，仍需输入用户设置的密码才能登录账户quora.com。这对抗SIM Swap等攻击提供了另一层防线。不过需要指出，如果用户忘记了设置的Telegram密码且没有设置信任邮箱，可能会永久失去账号访问，因此开启该功能在中国用户中接受度一般。

登录体验与安全性的取舍： Telegram的登录流程在用户体验上更加灵活。多设备下无需每次都收验证码，提高了便利性。但从安全角度看，这种“信任已有设备”的做法也有隐患：如果用户的某个设备落入他人之手并未及时登出，那么该人有可能利用该设备获取新的登录验证码。因此Telegram会在应用中提供管理活动会话的功能，用户可随时查看和撤销其它设备的登录状态telegram.org。总体而言，Telegram和WhatsApp在初始注册环节同样依赖短信/电话，在这一点上，中国的网络环境对两者影响相似：Telegram在中国同样被全面封锁，需要VPN才能使用，其短信验证码发送也会受到运营商限制。另外，Telegram曾在2015年因恐怖分子利用该平台传递信息而被中国当局重点关注并屏蔽，因此其国内可达性甚至比WhatsApp更低。许多中国用户实际使用Telegram时，通常绑定国外号码或通过海外SIM卡来收取验证码，以绕开国内运营商的限制。

差异总结： 简而言之，Telegram在登录验证机制上的主要优势在于已有会话协助和云端同步。这使得老用户换设备时不依赖国内短信通道即可登录（前提是原设备已登录并可访问）。WhatsApp直到最近才推出多设备功能，但其多设备模式采用的是端到端加密设备链路，需要主手机扫码授权，而非像Telegram那样用账号密码登录其它设备。因此WhatsApp仍然强绑定SIM卡设备，首次注册和更换手机号时逃不开运营商环节。安全方面，两者的SMS验证所面临的系统性风险（如SS7攻击、SIM Swap）并无本质区别，都必须仰仗运营商加强对核心网络的保护，以及用户自身启用附加验证措施securityaffairs.comkeepnetlabs.com。

结论

对于希望在中国使用WhatsApp的用户来说，“开启蜂窝数据”这一要求背后体现的是技术与政策交织的复杂现实。一方面，蜂窝数据承载着WhatsApp与其全球服务器通信的关键信道，在中国的受限网络中提供了相对可靠的出路faq.whatsapp.comsohu.com。另一方面，WhatsApp的号码验证机制深深植根于传统电信体系，必须经由全球运营商的“协作”才能完成用户身份确认securityaffairs.com。而在中国，这种协作受到防火长城和运营商政策的双重阻碍：国际短信被拦截、国际数据被阻断。为克服这些障碍，WhatsApp既采取了工程上的应对（如检测强制Wi-Fi并提示使用移动网络faq.whatsapp.com），也引入了诸如闪呼验证等新方案以减少对短信的依赖fossbytes.com。但从根本上说，只要注册流程离不开手机号码，这种与电信运营商的捆绑关系就无法割舍。由此带来的安全问题（如SIM Swap和信令网络漏洞）在全球范围内敲响警钟securityaffairs.comkeepnetlabs.com。

对于从事安全研究和政策评估的人士，这篇分析揭示了WhatsApp在中国遇到的典型困境：技术系统的全球化与监管环境的本地化冲突。WhatsApp全球统一的验证框架在中国水土不服，不得不通过额外的设置和手段来“曲线救国”。这既包括让用户切换网络、配置VPN等绕过审查，也包括思考未来是否有必要采用更安全独立的验证方式。相比之下，Telegram的机制给出了一种启示：灵活运用多设备和云服务，至少在一定程度上降低对单一短信渠道的依赖。然而，Telegram自身在中国的处境表明，再优雅的技术方案也难以直接对抗高强度的网络封锁。最终，无论是WhatsApp还是Telegram，要想在受限环境下可靠运作，都需要技术与政策的双管齐下：一方面提高验证与登录的安全性和多样性，另一方面寻求运营商和监管层面的理解与配合。

综上所述，WhatsApp要求中国用户开启蜂窝数据并非偶然的臆想，而是其全球运营商合作验证机制在中国受阻后的务实选择。这一要求折射出移动通信应用在跨境运营中面临的挑战，也提醒我们在设计安全策略时必须考虑底层依赖的信任假设。对于个人用户，最实际的建议是在使用此类应用时提前了解并遵循这些特殊设置（如开通国际短信、启用数据漫游），并善用应用自身的安全功能（如两步验证）来保护账户免遭社工和网络攻击keepnetlabs.com。对于监管和运营商，则有必要权衡安全审查与用户便利之间的平衡，在可控范围内为可信的全球服务留出技术通道。在全球通信愈加融合的时代，WhatsApp的中国验证问题或许只是一个缩影，背后涉及的既有网络安全考量，也有数字主权与国际合作的议题，值得持续深入研究和关注。

faq.whatsapp.comfossbytes.comtheguardian.comsecurityaffairs.comsecurityaffairs.comkeepnetlabs.comdatascientest.comnetmanias.comsohu.comsohu.com