@ 1bda7e1f:bb97c4d9

Tldr

• Nostr is an open and interoperable protocol
• You can integrate it with workflow automation tools to augment your experience
• n8n is a great low/no-code workflow automation tool which you can host yourself
• Nostrobots allows you to integrate Nostr into n8n
• In this blog I create some workflow automations for Nostr
• A simple form to delegate posting notes
• Push notifications for mentions on multiple accounts
• Push notifications for your favourite accounts when they post a note
• All workflows are provided as open source with MIT license for you to use

Inter-op All The Things

Nostr is a new open social protocol for the internet. This open nature exciting because of the opportunities for interoperability with other technologies. In Using NFC Cards with Nostr I explored the nostr: URI to launch Nostr clients from a card tap.

The interoperability of Nostr doesn't stop there. The internet has many super-powers, and Nostr is open to all of them. Simply, there's no one to stop it. There is no one in charge, there are no permissioned APIs, and there are no risks of being de-platformed. If you can imagine technologies that would work well with Nostr, then any and all of them can ride on or alongside Nostr rails.

My mental model for why this is special is Google Wave ~2010. Google Wave was to be the next big platform. Lars was running it and had a big track record from Maps. I was excited for it. Then, Google pulled the plug. And, immediately all the time and capital invested in understanding and building on the platform was wasted.

This cannot happen to Nostr, as there is no one to pull the plug, and maybe even no plug to pull.

So long as users demand Nostr, Nostr will exist, and that is a pretty strong guarantee. It makes it worthwhile to invest in bringing Nostr into our other applications.

All we need are simple ways to plug things together.

Nostr and Workflow Automation

Workflow automation is about helping people to streamline their work. As a user, the most common way I achieve this is by connecting disparate systems together. By setting up one system to trigger another or to move data between systems, I can solve for many different problems and become way more effective.

n8n for workflow automation

Many workflow automation tools exist. My favourite is n8n. n8n is a low/no-code workflow automation platform which allows you to build all kinds of workflows. You can use it for free, you can self-host it, it has a user-friendly UI and useful API. Vs Zapier it can be far more elaborate. Vs Make.com I find it to be more intuitive in how it abstracts away the right parts of the code, but still allows you to code when you need to.

Most importantly you can plug anything into n8n: You have built-in nodes for specific applications. HTTP nodes for any other API-based service. And community nodes built by individual community members for any other purpose you can imagine.

Eating my own dogfood

It's very clear to me that there is a big design space here just demanding to be explored. If you could integrate Nostr with anything, what would you do?

In my view the best way for anyone to start anything is by solving their own problem first (aka "scratching your own itch" and "eating your own dogfood"). As I get deeper into Nostr I find myself controlling multiple Npubs – to date I have a personal Npub, a brand Npub for a community I am helping, an AI assistant Npub, and various testing Npubs. I need ways to delegate access to those Npubs without handing over the keys, ways to know if they're mentioned, and ways to know if they're posting.

I can build workflows with n8n to solve these issues for myself to start with, and keep expanding from there as new needs come up.

Running n8n with Nostrobots

I am mostly non-technical with a very helpful AI. To set up n8n to work with Nostr and operate these workflows should be possible for anyone with basic technology skills.

• I have a cheap VPS which currently runs my HAVEN Nostr Relay and Albyhub Lightning Node in Docker containers,
• My objective was to set up n8n to run alongside these in a separate Docker container on the same server, install the required nodes, and then build and host my workflows.

Installing n8n

Self-hosting n8n could not be easier. I followed n8n's Docker-Compose installation docs–

• Install Docker and Docker-Compose if you haven't already,
• Create your docker-compose.yml and .env files from the docs,
• Create your data folder sudo docker volume create n8n_data,
• Start your container with sudo docker compose up -d,
• Your n8n instance should be online at port 5678.

n8n is free to self-host but does require a license. Enter your credentials into n8n to get your free license key. You should now have access to the Workflow dashboard and can create and host any kind of workflows from there.

Installing Nostrobots

To integrate n8n nicely with Nostr, I used the Nostrobots community node by Ocknamo.

In n8n parlance a "node" enables certain functionality as a step in a workflow e.g. a "set" node sets a variable, a "send email" node sends an email. n8n comes with all kinds of "official" nodes installed by default, and Nostr is not amongst them. However, n8n also comes with a framework for community members to create their own "community" nodes, which is where Nostrobots comes in.

You can only use a community node in a self-hosted n8n instance (which is what you have if you are running in Docker on your own server, but this limitation does prevent you from using n8n's own hosted alternative).

To install a community node, see n8n community node docs. From your workflow dashboard–

• Click the "..." in the bottom left corner beside your username, and click "settings",
• Cilck "community nodes" left sidebar,
• Click "Install",
• Enter the "npm Package Name" which is n8n-nodes-nostrobots,
• Accept the risks and click "Install",
• Nostrobots is now added to your n8n instance.

Using Nostrobots

Nostrobots gives you nodes to help you build Nostr-integrated workflows–

• Nostr Write – for posting Notes to the Nostr network,
• Nostr Read – for reading Notes from the Nostr network, and
• Nostr Utils – for performing certain conversions you may need (e.g. from bech32 to hex).

Nostrobots has good documentation on each node which focuses on simple use cases.

Each node has a "convenience mode" by default. For example, the "Read" Node by default will fetch Kind 1 notes by a simple filter, in Nostrobots parlance a "Strategy". For example, with Strategy set to "Mention" the node will accept a pubkey and fetch all Kind 1 notes that Mention the pubkey within a time period. This is very good for quick use.

What wasn't clear to me initially (until Ocknamo helped me out) is that advanced use cases are also possible.

Each node also has an advanced mode. For example, the "Read" Node can have "Strategy" set to "RawFilter(advanced)". Now the node will accept json (anything you like that complies with NIP-01). You can use this to query Notes (Kind 1) as above, and also Profiles (Kind 0), Follow Lists (Kind 3), Reactions (Kind 7), Zaps (Kind 9734/9735), and anything else you can think of.

Creating and adding workflows

With n8n and Nostrobots installed, you can now create or add any kind of Nostr Workflow Automation.

• Click "Add workflow" to go to the workflow builder screen,
• If you would like to build your own workflow, you can start with adding any node. Click "+" and see what is available. Type "Nostr" to explore the Nostrobots nodes you have added,
• If you would like to add workflows that someone else has built, click "..." in the top right. Then click "import from URL" and paste in the URL of any workflow you would like to use (including the ones I share later in this article).

Nostr Workflow Automations

It's time to build some things!

A simple form to post a note to Nostr

I started very simply. I needed to delegate the ability to post to Npubs that I own in order that a (future) team can test things for me. I don't want to worry about managing or training those people on how to use keys, and I want to revoke access easily.

I needed a basic form with credentials that posted a Note.

For this I can use a very simple workflow–

• A n8n Form node – Creates a form for users to enter the note they wish to post. Allows for the form to be protected by a username and password. This node is the workflow "trigger" so that the workflow runs each time the form is submitted.
• A Set node – Allows me to set some variables, in this case I set the relays that I intend to use. I typically add a Set node immediately following the trigger node, and put all the variables I need in this. It helps to make the workflows easier to update and maintain.
• A Nostr Write node (from Nostrobots) – Writes a Kind-1 note to the Nostr network. It accepts Nostr credentials, the output of the Form node, and the relays from the Set node, and posts the Note to those relays.

Once the workflow is built, you can test it with the testing form URL, and set it to "Active" to use the production form URL. That's it. You can now give posting access to anyone for any Npub. To revoke access, simply change the credentials or set to workflow to "Inactive".

It may also be the world's simplest Nostr client.

You can find the Nostr Form to Post a Note workflow here.

Push notifications on mentions and new notes

One of the things Nostr is not very good at is push notifications. Furthermore I have some unique itches to scratch. I want–

• To make sure I never miss a note addressed to any of my Npubs – For this I want a push notification any time any Nostr user mentions any of my Npubs,
• To make sure I always see all notes from key accounts – For this I need a push notification any time any of my Npubs post any Notes to the network,
• To get these notifications on all of my devices – Not just my phone where my Nostr regular client lives, but also on each of my laptops to suit wherever I am working that day.

I needed to build a Nostr push notifications solution.

To build this workflow I had to string a few ideas together–

• Triggering the node on a schedule – Nostrobots does not include a trigger node. As every workflow starts with a trigger we needed a different method. I elected to run the workflow on a schedule of every 10-minutes. Frequent enough to see Notes while they are hot, but infrequent enough to not burden public relays or get rate-limited,
• Storing a list of Npubs in a Nostr list – I needed a way to store the list of Npubs that trigger my notifications. I initially used an array defined in the workflow, this worked fine. Then I decided to try Nostr lists (NIP-51, kind 30000). By defining my list of Npubs as a list published to Nostr I can control my list from within a Nostr client (e.g. Listr.lol or Nostrudel.ninja). Not only does this "just work", but because it's based on Nostr lists automagically Amethyst client allows me to browse that list as a Feed, and everyone I add gets notified in their Mentions,
• Using specific relays – I needed to query the right relays, including my own HAVEN relay inbox for notes addressed to me, and wss://purplepag.es for Nostr profile metadata,
• Querying Nostr events (with Nostrobots) – I needed to make use of many different Nostr queries and use quite a wide range of what Nostrobots can do–
  • I read the EventID of my Kind 30000 list, to return the desired pubkeys,
  • For notifications on mentions, I read all Kind 1 notes that mention that pubkey,
  • For notifications on new notes, I read all Kind 1 notes published by that pubkey,
  • Where there are notes, I read the Kind 0 profile metadata event of that pubkey to get the displayName of the relevant Npub,
  • I transform the EventID into a Nevent to help clients find it.
• Using the Nostr URI – As I did with my NFC card article, I created a link with the nostr: URI prefix so that my phone's native client opens the link by default,
• Push notifications solution – I needed a push notifications solution. I found many with n8n integrations and chose to go with Pushover which supports all my devices, has a free trial, and is unfairly cheap with a $5-per-device perpetual license.

Once the workflow was built, lists published, and Pushover installed on my phone, I was fully set up with push notifications on Nostr. I have used these workflows for several weeks now and made various tweaks as I went. They are feeling robust and I'd welcome you to give them a go.

You can find the Nostr Push Notification If Mentioned here and If Posts a Note here.

In speaking with other Nostr users while I was building this, there are all kind of other needs for push notifications too – like on replies to a certain bookmarked note, or when a followed Npub starts streaming on zap.stream. These are all possible.

Use my workflows

I have open sourced all my workflows at my Github with MIT license and tried to write complete docs, so that you can import them into your n8n and configure them for your own use.

To import any of my workflows–

• Click on the workflow of your choice, e.g. "Nostr_Push_Notify_If_Mentioned.json",
• Click on the "raw" button to view the raw JSON, ex any Github page layout,
• Copy that URL,
• Enter that URL in the "import from URL" dialog mentioned above.

To configure them–

• Prerequisites, credentials, and variables are all stated,
• In general any variables required are entered into a Set Node that follows the trigger node,
• Pushover has some extra setup but is very straightforward and documented in the workflow.

What next?

Over my first four blogs I explored creating a good Nostr setup with Vanity Npub, Lightning Payments, Nostr Addresses at Your Domain, and Personal Nostr Relay.

Then in my latest two blogs I explored different types of interoperability with NFC cards and now n8n Workflow Automation.

Thinking ahead n8n can power any kind of interoperability between Nostr and any other legacy technology solution. On my mind as I write this:

• Further enhancements to posting and delegating solutions and forms (enhanced UI or different note kinds),
• Automated or scheduled posting (such as auto-liking everything Lyn Alden posts),
• Further enhancements to push notifications, on new and different types of events (such as notifying me when I get a new follower, on replies to certain posts, or when a user starts streaming),
• All kinds of bridges, such as bridging notes to and from Telegram, Slack, or Campfire. Or bridging RSS or other event feeds to Nostr,
• All kinds of other automation (such as BlackCoffee controlling a coffee machine),
• All kinds of AI Assistants and Agents,

In fact I have already released an open source workflow for an AI Assistant, and will share more about that in my next blog.

Please be sure to let me know if you think there's another Nostr topic you'd like to see me tackle.

GM Nostr.

@ f9cf4e94:96abc355

Scuttlebutt foi iniciado em maio de 2014 por Dominic Tarr ( dominictarr ) como uma rede social alternativa off-line, primeiro para convidados, que permite aos usuários obter controle total de seus dados e privacidade. Secure Scuttlebutt (ssb) foi lançado pouco depois, o que coloca a privacidade em primeiro plano com mais recursos de criptografia.

Se você está se perguntando de onde diabos veio o nome Scuttlebutt:

Este termo do século 19 para uma fofoca vem do Scuttlebutt náutico: “um barril de água mantido no convés, com um buraco para uma xícara”. A gíria náutica vai desde o hábito dos marinheiros de se reunir pelo boato até a fofoca, semelhante à fofoca do bebedouro.

Marinheiros se reunindo em torno da rixa. ( fonte )

Dominic descobriu o termo boato em um artigo de pesquisa que leu.

Em sistemas distribuídos, fofocar é um processo de retransmissão de mensagens ponto a ponto; as mensagens são disseminadas de forma análoga ao “boca a boca”.

Secure Scuttlebutt é um banco de dados de feeds imutáveis apenas para acréscimos, otimizado para replicação eficiente para protocolos ponto a ponto. Cada usuário tem um log imutável somente para acréscimos no qual eles podem gravar. Eles gravam no log assinando mensagens com sua chave privada. Pense em um feed de usuário como seu próprio diário de bordo, como um diário de bordo (ou diário do capitão para os fãs de Star Trek), onde eles são os únicos autorizados a escrever nele, mas têm a capacidade de permitir que outros amigos ou colegas leiam ao seu diário de bordo, se assim o desejarem.

Cada mensagem possui um número de sequência e a mensagem também deve fazer referência à mensagem anterior por seu ID. O ID é um hash da mensagem e da assinatura. A estrutura de dados é semelhante à de uma lista vinculada. É essencialmente um log somente de acréscimo de JSON assinado. Cada item adicionado a um log do usuário é chamado de mensagem.

Os logs do usuário são conhecidos como feed e um usuário pode seguir os feeds de outros usuários para receber suas atualizações. Cada usuário é responsável por armazenar seu próprio feed. Quando Alice assina o feed de Bob, Bob baixa o log de feed de Alice. Bob pode verificar se o registro do feed realmente pertence a Alice verificando as assinaturas. Bob pode verificar as assinaturas usando a chave pública de Alice.

Estrutura de alto nível de um feed

Pubs são servidores de retransmissão conhecidos como “super peers”. Pubs conectam usuários usuários e atualizações de fofocas a outros usuários conectados ao Pub. Um Pub é análogo a um pub da vida real, onde as pessoas vão para se encontrar e se socializar. Para ingressar em um Pub, o usuário deve ser convidado primeiro. Um usuário pode solicitar um código de convite de um Pub; o Pub simplesmente gerará um novo código de convite, mas alguns Pubs podem exigir verificação adicional na forma de verificação de e-mail ou, com alguns Pubs, você deve pedir um código em um fórum público ou chat. Pubs também podem mapear aliases de usuário, como e-mails ou nome de usuário, para IDs de chave pública para facilitar os pares de referência.

Depois que o Pub enviar o código de convite ao usuário, o usuário resgatará o código, o que significa que o Pub seguirá o usuário, o que permite que o usuário veja as mensagens postadas por outros membros do Pub, bem como as mensagens de retransmissão do Pub pelo usuário a outros membros do Pub.

Além de retransmitir mensagens entre pares, os Pubs também podem armazenar as mensagens. Se Alice estiver offline e Bob transmitir atualizações de feed, Alice perderá a atualização. Se Alice ficar online, mas Bob estiver offline, não haverá como ela buscar o feed de Bob. Mas com um Pub, Alice pode buscar o feed no Pub mesmo se Bob estiver off-line porque o Pub está armazenando as mensagens. Pubs são úteis porque assim que um colega fica online, ele pode sincronizar com o Pub para receber os feeds de seus amigos potencialmente offline.

Um usuário pode, opcionalmente, executar seu próprio servidor Pub e abri-lo ao público ou permitir que apenas seus amigos participem, se assim o desejarem. Eles também podem ingressar em um Pub público. Aqui está uma lista de Pubs públicos em que todos podem participar . Explicaremos como ingressar em um posteriormente neste guia. Uma coisa importante a observar é que o Secure Scuttlebutt em uma rede social somente para convidados significa que você deve ser “puxado” para entrar nos círculos sociais. Se você responder às mensagens, os destinatários não serão notificados, a menos que estejam seguindo você de volta. O objetivo do SSB é criar “ilhas” isoladas de redes pares, ao contrário de uma rede pública onde qualquer pessoa pode enviar mensagens a qualquer pessoa.

Perspectivas dos participantes

Scuttlebot

O software Pub é conhecido como servidor Scuttlebutt (servidor ssb ), mas também é conhecido como “Scuttlebot” e sbotna linha de comando. O servidor SSB adiciona comportamento de rede ao banco de dados Scuttlebutt (SSB). Estaremos usando o Scuttlebot ao longo deste tutorial.

Os logs do usuário são conhecidos como feed e um usuário pode seguir os feeds de outros usuários para receber suas atualizações. Cada usuário é responsável por armazenar seu próprio feed. Quando Alice assina o feed de Bob, Bob baixa o log de feed de Alice. Bob pode verificar se o registro do feed realmente pertence a Alice verificando as assinaturas. Bob pode verificar as assinaturas usando a chave pública de Alice.

Estrutura de alto nível de um feed

Pubs são servidores de retransmissão conhecidos como “super peers”. Pubs conectam usuários usuários e atualizações de fofocas a outros usuários conectados ao Pub. Um Pub é análogo a um pub da vida real, onde as pessoas vão para se encontrar e se socializar. Para ingressar em um Pub, o usuário deve ser convidado primeiro. Um usuário pode solicitar um código de convite de um Pub; o Pub simplesmente gerará um novo código de convite, mas alguns Pubs podem exigir verificação adicional na forma de verificação de e-mail ou, com alguns Pubs, você deve pedir um código em um fórum público ou chat. Pubs também podem mapear aliases de usuário, como e-mails ou nome de usuário, para IDs de chave pública para facilitar os pares de referência.

Depois que o Pub enviar o código de convite ao usuário, o usuário resgatará o código, o que significa que o Pub seguirá o usuário, o que permite que o usuário veja as mensagens postadas por outros membros do Pub, bem como as mensagens de retransmissão do Pub pelo usuário a outros membros do Pub.

Além de retransmitir mensagens entre pares, os Pubs também podem armazenar as mensagens. Se Alice estiver offline e Bob transmitir atualizações de feed, Alice perderá a atualização. Se Alice ficar online, mas Bob estiver offline, não haverá como ela buscar o feed de Bob. Mas com um Pub, Alice pode buscar o feed no Pub mesmo se Bob estiver off-line porque o Pub está armazenando as mensagens. Pubs são úteis porque assim que um colega fica online, ele pode sincronizar com o Pub para receber os feeds de seus amigos potencialmente offline.

Um usuário pode, opcionalmente, executar seu próprio servidor Pub e abri-lo ao público ou permitir que apenas seus amigos participem, se assim o desejarem. Eles também podem ingressar em um Pub público. Aqui está uma lista de Pubs públicos em que todos podem participar . Explicaremos como ingressar em um posteriormente neste guia. Uma coisa importante a observar é que o Secure Scuttlebutt em uma rede social somente para convidados significa que você deve ser “puxado” para entrar nos círculos sociais. Se você responder às mensagens, os destinatários não serão notificados, a menos que estejam seguindo você de volta. O objetivo do SSB é criar “ilhas” isoladas de redes pares, ao contrário de uma rede pública onde qualquer pessoa pode enviar mensagens a qualquer pessoa.

Perspectivas dos participantes

Pubs - Hubs

Pubs públicos

| Pub Name | Operator | Invite Code | | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | scuttle.us | @Ryan | scuttle.us:8008:@WqcuCOIpLtXFRw/9vOAQJti8avTZ9vxT9rKrPo8qG6o=.ed25519~/ZUi9Chpl0g1kuWSrmehq2EwMQeV0Pd+8xw8XhWuhLE= | | pub1.upsocial.com | @freedomrules | pub1.upsocial.com:8008:@gjlNF5Cyw3OKZxEoEpsVhT5Xv3HZutVfKBppmu42MkI=.ed25519~lMd6f4nnmBZEZSavAl4uahl+feajLUGqu8s2qdoTLi8= | | Monero Pub | @Denis | xmr-pub.net:8008:@5hTpvduvbDyMLN2IdzDKa7nx7PSem9co3RsOmZoyyCM=.ed25519~vQU+r2HUd6JxPENSinUWdfqrJLlOqXiCbzHoML9iVN4= | | FreeSocial | @Jarland | pub.freesocial.co:8008:@ofYKOy2p9wsaxV73GqgOyh6C6nRGFM5FyciQyxwBd6A=.ed25519~ye9Z808S3KPQsV0MWr1HL0/Sh8boSEwW+ZK+8x85u9w= | | ssb.vpn.net.br | @coffeverton | ssb.vpn.net.br:8008:@ze8nZPcf4sbdULvknEFOCbVZtdp7VRsB95nhNw6/2YQ=.ed25519~D0blTolH3YoTwSAkY5xhNw8jAOjgoNXL/+8ZClzr0io= | | gossip.noisebridge.info | Noisebridge Hackerspace @james.network | gossip.noisebridge.info:8008:@2NANnQVdsoqk0XPiJG2oMZqaEpTeoGrxOHJkLIqs7eY=.ed25519~JWTC6+rPYPW5b5zCion0gqjcJs35h6JKpUrQoAKWgJ4= |

Pubs privados

Você precisará entrar em contato com os proprietários desses bares para receber um convite.

| Pub Name | Operator | Contact | | --------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------- | | many.butt.nz | @dinosaur | mikey@enspiral.com | | one.butt.nz | @dinosaur | mikey@enspiral.com | | ssb.mikey.nz | @dinosaur | mikey@enspiral.com | | ssb.celehner.com | @cel | cel@celehner.com |

Pubs muito grandes

Aviso: embora tecnicamente funcione usar um convite para esses pubs, você provavelmente se divertirá se o fizer devido ao seu tamanho (muitas coisas para baixar, risco para bots / spammers / idiotas)

| Pub Name | Operator | Invite Code | | --------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | scuttlebutt.de | SolSoCoG | scuttlebutt.de:8008:@yeh/GKxlfhlYXSdgU7CRLxm58GC42za3tDuC4NJld/k=.ed25519~iyaCpZ0co863K9aF+b7j8BnnHfwY65dGeX6Dh2nXs3c= | | Lohn's Pub | @lohn | p.lohn.in:8018:@LohnKVll9HdLI3AndEc4zwGtfdF/J7xC7PW9B/JpI4U=.ed25519~z3m4ttJdI4InHkCtchxTu26kKqOfKk4woBb1TtPeA/s= | | Scuttle Space | @guil-dot | Visit scuttle.space | | SSB PeerNet US-East | timjrobinson | us-east.ssbpeer.net:8008:@sTO03jpVivj65BEAJMhlwtHXsWdLd9fLwyKAT1qAkc0=.ed25519~sXFc5taUA7dpGTJITZVDCRy2A9jmkVttsr107+ufInU= | | Hermies | s | net:hermies.club:8008~shs:uMYDVPuEKftL4SzpRGVyQxLdyPkOiX7njit7+qT/7IQ=:SSB+Room+PSK3TLYC2T86EHQCUHBUHASCASE18JBV24= |

GUI - Interface Gráfica do Utilizador(Usuário)

Patchwork - Uma GUI SSB (Descontinuado)

Patchwork é o aplicativo de mensagens e compartilhamento descentralizado construído em cima do SSB . O protocolo scuttlebutt em si não mantém um conjunto de feeds nos quais um usuário está interessado, então um cliente é necessário para manter uma lista de feeds de pares em que seu respectivo usuário está interessado e seguindo.

Fonte: scuttlebutt.nz

Quando você instala e executa o Patchwork, você só pode ver e se comunicar com seus pares em sua rede local. Para acessar fora de sua LAN, você precisa se conectar a um Pub. Um pub é apenas para convidados e eles retransmitem mensagens entre você e seus pares fora de sua LAN e entre outros Pubs.

Lembre-se de que você precisa seguir alguém para receber mensagens dessa pessoa. Isso reduz o envio de mensagens de spam para os usuários. Os usuários só veem as respostas das pessoas que seguem. Os dados são sincronizados no disco para funcionar offline, mas podem ser sincronizados diretamente com os pares na sua LAN por wi-fi ou bluetooth.

Patchbay - Uma GUI Alternativa

Patchbay é um cliente de fofoca projetado para ser fácil de modificar e estender. Ele usa o mesmo banco de dados que Patchwork e Patchfoo , então você pode facilmente dar uma volta com sua identidade existente.

Planetary - GUI para IOS

Planetary é um app com pubs pré-carregados para facilitar integração.

Manyverse - GUI para Android

Manyverse é um aplicativo de rede social com recursos que você esperaria: posts, curtidas, perfis, mensagens privadas, etc. Mas não está sendo executado na nuvem de propriedade de uma empresa, em vez disso, as postagens de seus amigos e todos os seus dados sociais vivem inteiramente em seu telefone .

Fontes

• https://scuttlebot.io/

• https://decentralized-id.com/decentralized-web/scuttlebot/#plugins

• https://medium.com/@miguelmota/getting-started-with-secure-scuttlebut-e6b7d4c5ecfd

• Secure Scuttlebutt : um protocolo de banco de dados global.

@ e97aaffa:2ebd765d

Último dia do ano, momento para tirar o pó da bola de cristal, para fazer reflexões, previsões e desejos para o próximo ano e seguintes.

Ano após ano, o Bitcoin evoluiu, foi ultrapassando etapas, tornou-se cada vez mais mainstream. Está cada vez mais difícil fazer previsões sobre o Bitcoin, já faltam poucas barreiras a serem ultrapassadas e as que faltam são altamente complexas ou tem um impacto profundo no sistema financeiro ou na sociedade. Estas alterações profundas tem que ser realizadas lentamente, porque uma alteração rápida poderia resultar em consequências terríveis, poderia provocar um retrocesso.

Código do Bitcoin

No final de 2025, possivelmente vamos ter um fork, as discussões sobre os covenants já estão avançadas, vão acelerar ainda mais. Já existe um consenso relativamente alto, a favor dos covenants, só falta decidir que modelo será escolhido. Penso que até ao final do ano será tudo decidido.

Depois dos covenants, o próximo foco será para a criptografia post-quantum, que será o maior desafio que o Bitcoin enfrenta. Criar uma criptografia segura e que não coloque a descentralização em causa.

Espero muito de Ark, possivelmente a inovação do ano, gostaria de ver o Nostr a furar a bolha bitcoinheira e que o Cashu tivesse mais reconhecimento pelos bitcoiners.

Espero que surjam avanços significativos no BitVM2 e BitVMX.

Não sei o que esperar das layer 2 de Bitcoin, foram a maior desilusão de 2024. Surgiram com muita força, mas pouca coisa saiu do papel, foi uma mão cheia de nada. Uma parte dos projetos caiu na tentação da shitcoinagem, na criação de tokens, que tem um único objetivo, enriquecer os devs e os VCs.

Se querem ser levados a sério, têm que ser sérios.

“À mulher de César não basta ser honesta, deve parecer honesta”

Se querem ter o apoio dos bitcoiners, sigam o ethos do Bitcoin.

Neste ponto a atitude do pessoal da Ark é exemplar, em vez de andar a chorar no Twitter para mudar o código do Bitcoin, eles colocaram as mãos na massa e criaram o protocolo. É claro que agora está meio “coxo”, funciona com uma multisig ou com os covenants na Liquid. Mas eles estão a criar um produto, vão demonstrar ao mercado que o produto é bom e útil. Com a adoção, a comunidade vai perceber que o Ark necessita dos covenants para melhorar a interoperabilidade e a soberania.

É este o pensamento certo, que deveria ser seguido pelos restantes e futuros projetos. É seguir aquele pensamento do J.F. Kennedy:

“Não perguntem o que é que o vosso país pode fazer por vocês, perguntem o que é que vocês podem fazer pelo vosso país”

Ou seja, não fiquem à espera que o bitcoin mude, criem primeiro as inovações/tecnologia, ganhem adoção e depois demonstrem que a alteração do código camada base pode melhorar ainda mais o vosso projeto. A necessidade é que vai levar a atualização do código.

Reservas Estratégicas de Bitcoin

Bancos centrais

Com a eleição de Trump, emergiu a ideia de uma Reserva Estratégia de Bitcoin, tornou este conceito mainstream. Foi um pivot, a partir desse momento, foram enumerados os políticos de todo o mundo a falar sobre o assunto.

A Senadora Cynthia Lummis foi mais além e propôs um programa para adicionar 200 mil bitcoins à reserva ao ano, até 1 milhão de Bitcoin. Só que isto está a criar uma enorme expectativa na comunidade, só que pode resultar numa enorme desilusão. Porque no primeiro ano, o Trump em vez de comprar os 200 mil, pode apenas adicionar na reserva, os 198 mil que o Estado já tem em sua posse. Se isto acontecer, possivelmente vai resultar numa forte queda a curto prazo. Na minha opinião os bancos centrais deveriam seguir o exemplo de El Salvador, fazer um DCA diário.

Mais que comprar bitcoin, para mim, o mais importante é a criação da Reserva, é colocar o Bitcoin ao mesmo nível do ouro, o impacto para o resto do mundo será tremendo, a teoria dos jogos na sua plenitude. Muitos outros bancos centrais vão ter que comprar, para não ficarem atrás, além disso, vai transmitir uma mensagem à generalidade da população, que o Bitcoin é “afinal é algo seguro, com valor”.

Mas não foi Trump que iniciou esta teoria dos jogos, mas sim foi a primeira vítima dela. É o próprio Trump que o admite, que os EUA necessitam da reserva para não ficar atrás da China. Além disso, desde que os EUA utilizaram o dólar como uma arma, com sanção contra a Rússia, surgiram boatos de que a Rússia estaria a utilizar o Bitcoin para transações internacionais. Que foram confirmados recentemente, pelo próprio governo russo. Também há poucos dias, ainda antes deste reconhecimento público, Putin elogiou o Bitcoin, ao reconhecer que “Ninguém pode proibir o bitcoin”, defendendo como uma alternativa ao dólar. A narrativa está a mudar.

Já existem alguns países com Bitcoin, mas apenas dois o fizeram conscientemente (El Salvador e Butão), os restantes têm devido a apreensões. Hoje são poucos, mas 2025 será o início de uma corrida pelos bancos centrais. Esta corrida era algo previsível, o que eu não esperava é que acontecesse tão rápido.

Empresas

A criação de reservas estratégicas não vai ficar apenas pelos bancos centrais, também vai acelerar fortemente nas empresas em 2025.

Mas as empresas não vão seguir a estratégia do Saylor, vão comprar bitcoin sem alavancagem, utilizando apenas os tesouros das empresas, como uma proteção contra a inflação. Eu não sou grande admirador do Saylor, prefiro muito mais, uma estratégia conservadora, sem qualquer alavancagem. Penso que as empresas vão seguir a sugestão da BlackRock, que aconselha um alocações de 1% a 3%.

Penso que 2025, ainda não será o ano da entrada das 6 magníficas (excepto Tesla), será sobretudo empresas de pequena e média dimensão. As magníficas ainda tem uma cota muito elevada de shareholders com alguma idade, bastante conservadores, que têm dificuldade em compreender o Bitcoin, foi o que aconteceu recentemente com a Microsoft.

Também ainda não será em 2025, talvez 2026, a inclusão nativamente de wallet Bitcoin nos sistema da Apple Pay e da Google Pay. Seria um passo gigante para a adoção a nível mundial.

ETFs

Os ETFs para mim são uma incógnita, tenho demasiadas dúvidas, como será 2025. Este ano os inflows foram superiores a 500 mil bitcoins, o IBIT foi o lançamento de ETF mais bem sucedido da história. O sucesso dos ETFs, deve-se a 2 situações que nunca mais se vão repetir. O mercado esteve 10 anos à espera pela aprovação dos ETFs, a procura estava reprimida, isso foi bem notório nos primeiros meses, os inflows foram brutais.

Também se beneficiou por ser um mercado novo, não existia orderbook de vendas, não existia um mercado interno, praticamente era só inflows. Agora o mercado já estabilizou, a maioria das transações já são entre clientes dos próprios ETFs. Agora só uma pequena percentagem do volume das transações diárias vai resultar em inflows ou outflows.

Estes dois fenómenos nunca mais se vão repetir, eu não acredito que o número de inflows em BTC supere os número de 2024, em dólares vai superar, mas em btc não acredito que vá superar.

Mas em 2025 vão surgir uma infindável quantidade de novos produtos, derivativos, novos ETFs de cestos com outras criptos ou cestos com ativos tradicionais. O bitcoin será adicionado em produtos financeiros já existentes no mercado, as pessoas vão passar a deter bitcoin, sem o saberem.

Com o fim da operação ChokePoint 2.0, vai surgir uma nova onda de adoção e de produtos financeiros. Possivelmente vamos ver bancos tradicionais a disponibilizar produtos ou serviços de custódia aos seus clientes.

Eu adoraria ver o crescimento da adoção do bitcoin como moeda, só que a regulamentação não vai ajudar nesse processo.

Preço

Eu acredito que o topo deste ciclo será alcançado no primeiro semestre, posteriormente haverá uma correção. Mas desta vez, eu acredito que a correção será muito menor que as anteriores, inferior a 50%, esta é a minha expectativa. Espero estar certo.

Stablecoins de dólar

Agora saindo um pouco do universo do Bitcoin, acho importante destacar as stablecoins.

No último ciclo, eu tenho dividido o tempo, entre continuar a estudar o Bitcoin e estudar o sistema financeiro, as suas dinâmicas e o comportamento humano. Isto tem sido o meu foco de reflexão, imaginar a transformação que o mundo vai sofrer devido ao padrão Bitcoin. É uma ilusão acreditar que a transição de um padrão FIAT para um padrão Bitcoin vai ser rápida, vai existir um processo transitório que pode demorar décadas.

Com a re-entrada de Trump na Casa Branca, prometendo uma política altamente protecionista, vai provocar uma forte valorização do dólar, consequentemente as restantes moedas do mundo vão derreter. Provocando uma inflação generalizada, gerando uma corrida às stablecoins de dólar nos países com moedas mais fracas. Trump vai ter uma política altamente expansionista, vai exportar dólares para todo o mundo, para financiar a sua própria dívida. A desigualdade entre os pobres e ricos irá crescer fortemente, aumentando a possibilidade de conflitos e revoltas.

“Casa onde não há pão, todos ralham e ninguém tem razão”

Será mais lenha, para alimentar a fogueira, vai gravar os conflitos geopolíticos já existentes, ficando as sociedade ainda mais polarizadas.

Eu acredito que 2025, vai haver um forte crescimento na adoção das stablecoins de dólares, esse forte crescimento vai agravar o problema sistémico que são as stablecoins. Vai ser o início do fim das stablecoins, pelo menos, como nós conhecemos hoje em dia.

Problema sistémico

O sistema FIAT não nasceu de um dia para outro, foi algo que foi construído organicamente, ou seja, foi evoluindo ao longo dos anos, sempre que havia um problema/crise, eram criadas novas regras ou novas instituições para minimizar os problemas. Nestes quase 100 anos, desde os acordos de Bretton Woods, a evolução foram tantas, tornaram o sistema financeiro altamente complexo, burocrático e nada eficiente.

Na prática é um castelo de cartas construído sobre outro castelo de cartas e que por sua vez, foi construído sobre outro castelo de cartas.

As stablecoins são um problema sistémico, devido às suas reservas em dólares e o sistema financeiro não está preparado para manter isso seguro. Com o crescimento das reservas ao longo dos anos, foi se agravando o problema.

No início a Tether colocava as reservas em bancos comerciais, mas com o crescimento dos dólares sob gestão, criou um problema nos bancos comerciais, devido à reserva fracionária. Essas enormes reservas da Tether estavam a colocar em risco a própria estabilidade dos bancos.

A Tether acabou por mudar de estratégia, optou por outros ativos, preferencialmente por títulos do tesouro/obrigações dos EUA. Só que a Tether continua a crescer e não dá sinais de abrandamento, pelo contrário.

Até o próprio mundo cripto, menosprezava a gravidade do problema da Tether/stablecoins para o resto do sistema financeiro, porque o marketcap do cripto ainda é muito pequeno. É verdade que ainda é pequeno, mas a Tether não o é, está no top 20 dos maiores detentores de títulos do tesouros dos EUA e está ao nível dos maiores bancos centrais do mundo. Devido ao seu tamanho, está a preocupar os responsáveis/autoridades/reguladores dos EUA, pode colocar em causa a estabilidade do sistema financeiro global, que está assente nessas obrigações.

Os títulos do tesouro dos EUA são o colateral mais utilizado no mundo, tanto por bancos centrais, como por empresas, é a charneira da estabilidade do sistema financeiro. Os títulos do tesouro são um assunto muito sensível. Na recente crise no Japão, do carry trade, o Banco Central do Japão tentou minimizar a desvalorização do iene através da venda de títulos dos EUA. Esta operação, obrigou a uma viagem de emergência, da Secretaria do Tesouro dos EUA, Janet Yellen ao Japão, onde disponibilizou liquidez para parar a venda de títulos por parte do Banco Central do Japão. Essa forte venda estava desestabilizando o mercado.

Os principais detentores de títulos do tesouros são institucionais, bancos centrais, bancos comerciais, fundo de investimento e gestoras, tudo administrado por gestores altamente qualificados, racionais e que conhecem a complexidade do mercado de obrigações.

O mundo cripto é seu oposto, é naife com muita irracionalidade e uma forte pitada de loucura, na sua maioria nem faz a mínima ideia como funciona o sistema financeiro. Essa irracionalidade pode levar a uma “corrida bancária”, como aconteceu com o UST da Luna, que em poucas horas colapsou o projeto. Em termos de escala, a Luna ainda era muito pequena, por isso, o problema ficou circunscrito ao mundo cripto e a empresas ligadas diretamente ao cripto.

Só que a Tether é muito diferente, caso exista algum FUD, que obrigue a Tether a desfazer-se de vários biliões ou dezenas de biliões de dólares em títulos num curto espaço de tempo, poderia provocar consequências terríveis em todo o sistema financeiro. A Tether é grande demais, é já um problema sistémico, que vai agravar-se com o crescimento em 2025.

Não tenham dúvidas, se existir algum problema, o Tesouro dos EUA vai impedir a venda dos títulos que a Tether tem em sua posse, para salvar o sistema financeiro. O problema é, o que vai fazer a Tether, se ficar sem acesso às venda das reservas, como fará o redeem dos dólares?

Como o crescimento do Tether é inevitável, o Tesouro e o FED estão com um grande problema em mãos, o que fazer com o Tether?

Mas o problema é que o atual sistema financeiro é como um curto cobertor: Quanto tapas a cabeça, destapas os pés; Ou quando tapas os pés, destapas a cabeça. Ou seja, para resolver o problema da guarda reservas da Tether, vai criar novos problemas, em outros locais do sistema financeiro e assim sucessivamente.

Conta mestre

Uma possível solução seria dar uma conta mestre à Tether, dando o acesso direto a uma conta no FED, semelhante à que todos os bancos comerciais têm. Com isto, a Tether deixaria de necessitar os títulos do tesouro, depositando o dinheiro diretamente no banco central. Só que isto iria criar dois novos problemas, com o Custodia Bank e com o restante sistema bancário.

O Custodia Bank luta há vários anos contra o FED, nos tribunais pelo direito a ter licença bancária para um banco com full-reserves. O FED recusou sempre esse direito, com a justificativa que esse banco, colocaria em risco toda a estabilidade do sistema bancário existente, ou seja, todos os outros bancos poderiam colapsar. Perante a existência em simultâneo de bancos com reserva fracionária e com full-reserves, as pessoas e empresas iriam optar pelo mais seguro. Isso iria provocar uma corrida bancária, levando ao colapso de todos os bancos com reserva fracionária, porque no Custodia Bank, os fundos dos clientes estão 100% garantidos, para qualquer valor. Deixaria de ser necessário limites de fundos de Garantia de Depósitos.

Eu concordo com o FED nesse ponto, que os bancos com full-reserves são uma ameaça a existência dos restantes bancos. O que eu discordo do FED, é a origem do problema, o problema não está nos bancos full-reserves, mas sim nos que têm reserva fracionária.

O FED ao conceder uma conta mestre ao Tether, abre um precedente, o Custodia Bank irá o aproveitar, reclamando pela igualdade de direitos nos tribunais e desta vez, possivelmente ganhará a sua licença.

Ainda há um segundo problema, com os restantes bancos comerciais. A Tether passaria a ter direitos similares aos bancos comerciais, mas os deveres seriam muito diferentes. Isto levaria os bancos comerciais aos tribunais para exigir igualdade de tratamento, é uma concorrência desleal. Isto é o bom dos tribunais dos EUA, são independentes e funcionam, mesmo contra o estado. Os bancos comerciais têm custos exorbitantes devido às políticas de compliance, como o KYC e AML. Como o governo não vai querer aliviar as regras, logo seria a Tether, a ser obrigada a fazer o compliance dos seus clientes.

A obrigação do KYC para ter stablecoins iriam provocar um terramoto no mundo cripto.

Assim, é pouco provável que seja a solução para a Tether.

FED

Só resta uma hipótese, ser o próprio FED a controlar e a gerir diretamente as stablecoins de dólar, nacionalizado ou absorvendo as existentes. Seria uma espécie de CBDC. Isto iria provocar um novo problema, um problema diplomático, porque as stablecoins estão a colocar em causa a soberania monetária dos outros países. Atualmente as stablecoins estão um pouco protegidas porque vivem num limbo jurídico, mas a partir do momento que estas são controladas pelo governo americano, tudo muda. Os países vão exigir às autoridades americanas medidas que limitem o uso nos seus respectivos países.

Não existe uma solução boa, o sistema FIAT é um castelo de cartas, qualquer carta que se mova, vai provocar um desmoronamento noutro local. As autoridades não poderão adiar mais o problema, terão que o resolver de vez, senão, qualquer dia será tarde demais. Se houver algum problema, vão colocar a responsabilidade no cripto e no Bitcoin. Mas a verdade, a culpa é inteiramente dos políticos, da sua incompetência em resolver os problemas a tempo.

Será algo para acompanhar futuramente, mas só para 2026, talvez…

É curioso, há uns anos pensava-se que o Bitcoin seria a maior ameaça ao sistema ao FIAT, mas afinal, a maior ameaça aos sistema FIAT é o próprio FIAT(stablecoins). A ironia do destino.

Isto é como uma corrida, o Bitcoin é aquele atleta que corre ao seu ritmo, umas vezes mais rápido, outras vezes mais lento, mas nunca pára. O FIAT é o atleta que dá tudo desde da partida, corre sempre em velocidade máxima. Só que a vida e o sistema financeiro não é uma prova de 100 metros, mas sim uma maratona.

Europa

2025 será um ano desafiante para todos europeus, sobretudo devido à entrada em vigor da regulamentação (MiCA). Vão começar a sentir na pele a regulamentação, vão agravar-se os problemas com os compliance, problemas para comprovar a origem de fundos e outras burocracias. Vai ser lindo.

O Travel Route passa a ser obrigatório, os europeus serão obrigados a fazer o KYC nas transações. A Travel Route é uma suposta lei para criar mais transparência, mas prática, é uma lei de controle, de monitorização e para limitar as liberdades individuais dos cidadãos.

O MiCA também está a colocar problemas nas stablecoins de Euro, a Tether para já preferiu ficar de fora da europa. O mais ridículo é que as novas regras obrigam os emissores a colocar 30% das reservas em bancos comerciais. Os burocratas europeus não compreendem que isto coloca em risco a estabilidade e a solvência dos próprios bancos, ficam propensos a corridas bancárias.

O MiCA vai obrigar a todas as exchanges a estar registadas em solo europeu, ficando vulnerável ao temperamento dos burocratas. Ainda não vai ser em 2025, mas a UE vai impor políticas de controle de capitais, é inevitável, as exchanges serão obrigadas a usar em exclusividade stablecoins de euro, as restantes stablecoins serão deslistadas.

Todas estas novas regras do MiCA, são extremamente restritas, não é para garantir mais segurança aos cidadãos europeus, mas sim para garantir mais controle sobre a população. A UE está cada vez mais perto da autocracia, do que da democracia. A minha única esperança no horizonte, é que o sucesso das políticas cripto nos EUA, vai obrigar a UE a recuar e a aligeirar as regras, a teoria dos jogos é implacável. Mas esse recuo, nunca acontecerá em 2025, vai ser um longo período conturbado.

Recessão

Os mercados estão todos em máximos históricos, isto não é sustentável por muito tempo, suspeito que no final de 2025 vai acontecer alguma correção nos mercados. A queda só não será maior, porque os bancos centrais vão imprimir dinheiro, muito dinheiro, como se não houvesse amanhã. Vão voltar a resolver os problemas com a injeção de liquidez na economia, é empurrar os problemas com a barriga, em de os resolver. Outra vez o efeito Cantillon.

Será um ano muito desafiante a nível político, onde o papel dos políticos será fundamental. A crise política na França e na Alemanha, coloca a UE órfã, sem um comandante ao leme do navio. 2025 estará condicionado pelas eleições na Alemanha, sobretudo no resultado do AfD, que podem colocar em causa a propriedade UE e o euro.

Possivelmente, só o fim da guerra poderia minimizar a crise, algo que é muito pouco provável acontecer.

Em Portugal, a economia parece que está mais ou menos equilibrada, mas começam a aparecer alguns sinais preocupantes. Os jogos de sorte e azar estão em máximos históricos, batendo o recorde de 2014, época da grande crise, não é um bom sinal, possivelmente já existe algum desespero no ar.

A Alemanha é o motor da Europa, quanto espirra, Portugal constipa-se. Além do problema da Alemanha, a Espanha também está à beira de uma crise, são os países que mais influenciam a economia portuguesa.

Se existir uma recessão mundial, terá um forte impacto no turismo, que é hoje em dia o principal motor de Portugal.

Brasil

Brasil é algo para acompanhar em 2025, sobretudo a nível macro e a nível político. Existe uma possibilidade de uma profunda crise no Brasil, sobretudo na sua moeda. O banco central já anda a queimar as reservas para minimizar a desvalorização do Real.

Sem mudanças profundas nas políticas fiscais, as reservas vão se esgotar. As políticas de controle de capitais são um cenário plausível, será interesse de acompanhar, como o governo irá proceder perante a existência do Bitcoin e stablecoins. No Brasil existe um forte adoção, será um bom case study, certamente irá repetir-se em outros países num futuro próximo.

Os próximos tempos não serão fáceis para os brasileiros, especialmente para os que não têm Bitcoin.

Blockchain

Em 2025, possivelmente vamos ver os primeiros passos da BlackRock para criar a primeira bolsa de valores, exclusivamente em blockchain. Eu acredito que a BlackRock vai criar uma própria blockchain, toda controlada por si, onde estarão os RWAs, para fazer concorrência às tradicionais bolsas de valores. Será algo interessante de acompanhar.

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Estas são as minhas previsões, eu escrevi isto muito em cima do joelho, certamente esqueci-me de algumas coisas, se for importante acrescentarei nos comentários. A maioria das previsões só acontecerá após 2025, mas fica aqui a minha opinião.

Isto é apenas a minha opinião, Don’t Trust, Verify!

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na trzisnoresenje.blogspot.com

15.12.2023 / Autor: Slaviša Tasić

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Ovako sam pisao u aprilu kad je Bitcoin vredeo $50-100 dolara:

"Koja je budućnost Bitcoina? Većina mu predviđa propast, ali već smo videli da ima neprijatelje sa obeju strana i obe imaju svoje razloge. ... Ali ekonomski gledano, sada kad je Bitcoin došao dovde, meni se čini da može još mnogo rasti."

...

"Zato mislim da ekonomski Bitcoin više nema problem. Sa ovako ograničenom ponudom, a uz održanje sadašnje tražnje ili njen rast, njegove vrednost može i još mnogo da poraste."

U međuvremenu je otišao na preko $1,000. Ali mislite da sam kupio neki Bitcoin? Nisam, teško je baviti se takvim sitnicama kad morate da pišete blog.

Evo šta sada mislim o Bitcoinu.

Najvažnije je razumeti zašto Bitcoin uopšte ima vrednost. To što ima neku vrednost i nije tako iznenađujuće. Valute su istorijski spontano nastajale najčešće od nečega što ima istinsku vrednost, bronze, srebra ili zlata. Ali nije neviđeno ni da novac bez intristične vrednosti bude široko prihvaćen. Poznat je slučaj ostrva kamenog novca, gde je novac bilo kamenje, neka vrsta krečnjaka (vidi sliku ispod). Stanovnici jednog polinezijskog ostrva su koristili ovaj kamen kao novac zbog samo jedne osobine -- zato što nije postojao na ostrvu. Da biste nabavili takvo kamenje morali ste ići na drugo ostrvo, što je bilo skupo i naporno. I to je jedina osobina koja je krečnjak činila novcem, nisu ga koristili ni za šta drugo.

Štaviše, da ne bi kotrljali kamenje pri svakoj kupovini, trgovali su samo pravima na odrđeni kamen, a da se kamen uopšte nije morao pomeriti s mesta. To je suštinski isto kao današnje elektronsko bankarstvo, ali to je druga priča.

Bitcoin je nešto najbliže tome. Kad se uspostavi konvencija, onda novac ne mora imati imanentnu vrednost. Konvencija je, iz garantovanu retkost dovoljan uslov da nešto uspe kao novac. Kao i krečnjak na tom ostrvu, Bitcoin je suštinski bezvredan, ali 1) ne može se naći lako (ima retkost) i 2) postoji konvencija da se prihvata kao novac -- prihvatate ga jer znate da će ga i drugi prihvatiti.

Ali koliko je Bitcoin zaista redak? Sam Bitcoin jeste, jer mu je ponuda programski ograničena. Ali sada vidimo uspon drugih kripto valuta -- Litecoin, Peercoin, i drugi. Bitcoin je redak, ali svako može da napravi nešto jako slično bitcoinu i zvati ga drugačije. To se uveliko i dešava, za sada bez efekta na vrednost Bitcoina.

Za sada Bitcoin ima rastuću snagu konvencije, ili ekonomskim rečnikom, za njega radi efekat mreže. Efekat mreže postoji kada svaki dodatni korisnik povećava vrednost dobra -- vi koristite tastaturu sa početnim slovima QWERTY zato što svi drugi koriste istu tastaturu pa je glupo da počinjete nešto drugo; otvorili ste Facebook nalog ne zato što je Facebook tehnološki najbolje urađen nego zato što svi drugi imaju Facebook pa se tako nalkaše povezujete; nemate Google Plus jer niko drugi nema Google Plus što ga čini beskorisnim, i tako dalje. Uspostavljene mreže je jako teško srušiti, one se perpetuiraju i rastu na principu začaranog kruga.

Kad se jednom uspostave, mreže kao Facebook ili Bitcoin imaju ugrađenu prednost i teško ih je srušiti. Ali znate li ko je još imao efekat mreže u svoju korist? Imao je Windows i imao je MySpace. Windows se još drži ali nije ni blizu moći od pre desetak godina, a MySpace je potpuno propao -- a ljudi su 2008. MySpaceu predviđali večni monopol zbog efekta mreže. Poenta je, efekat mreže je prednost ali nikome ne garantuje monopol, pa čak ni opstanak.

Situacija sa Bitcoinom je ovakva. Sa pojavom drugih valuta retkost je izgubio. Nije bitno što nema Bitcoina, Bitcoin je samo ime. Ima ili može biti neograničeno mnogo kriptovaluta istog tipa i to je ono što je važno. Konvenciju odnosno efekat mreže Bitcoin još uvek ima, štaviše tu je i dalje u usponu. Ali to mu ne garantuje dugoročni uspeh. Kad se ta dva saberu, mislim da Bitcoin nema dobrih dugoročnih izgleda. Da sam onda u aprilu kupio Bitcoine, sada bih prodao.

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Bitcoin and Fixed Income was Written By Wyatt O’Rourke. If you enjoyed this article then support his writing, directly, by donating to his lightning wallet: ultrahusky3@primal.net

Fiduciary duty is the obligation to act in the client’s best interests at all times, prioritizing their needs above the advisor’s own, ensuring honesty, transparency, and avoiding conflicts of interest in all recommendations and actions.

This is something all advisors in the BFAN take very seriously; after all, we are legally required to do so. For the average advisor this is a fairly easy box to check. All you essentially have to do is have someone take a 5-minute risk assessment, fill out an investment policy statement, and then throw them in the proverbial 60/40 portfolio. You have thousands of investment options to choose from and you can reasonably explain how your client is theoretically insulated from any move in the \~markets\~. From the traditional financial advisor perspective, you could justify nearly anything by putting a client into this type of portfolio. All your bases were pretty much covered from return profile, regulatory, compliance, investment options, etc. It was just too easy. It became the household standard and now a meme.

As almost every real bitcoiner knows, the 60/40 portfolio is moving into psyop territory, and many financial advisors get clowned on for defending this relic on bitcoin twitter. I’m going to specifically poke fun at the ‘40’ part of this portfolio.

The ‘40’ represents fixed income, defined as…

An investment type that provides regular, set interest payments, such as bonds or treasury securities, and returns the principal at maturity. It’s generally considered a lower-risk asset class, used to generate stable income and preserve capital.

Historically, this part of the portfolio was meant to weather the volatility in the equity markets and represent the “safe” investments. Typically, some sort of bond.

First and foremost, the fixed income section is most commonly constructed with U.S. Debt. There are a couple main reasons for this. Most financial professionals believe the same fairy tale that U.S. Debt is “risk free” (lol). U.S. debt is also one of the largest and most liquid assets in the market which comes with a lot of benefits.

There are many brilliant bitcoiners in finance and economics that have sounded the alarm on the U.S. debt ticking time bomb. I highly recommend readers explore the work of Greg Foss, Lawrence Lepard, Lyn Alden, and Saifedean Ammous. My very high-level recap of their analysis:

• A bond is a contract in which Party A (the borrower) agrees to repay Party B (the lender) their principal plus interest over time.

• The U.S. government issues bonds (Treasury securities) to finance its operations after tax revenues have been exhausted.

• These are traditionally viewed as “risk-free” due to the government’s historical reliability in repaying its debts and the strength of the U.S. economy

• U.S. bonds are seen as safe because the government has control over the dollar (world reserve asset) and, until recently (20 some odd years), enjoyed broad confidence that it would always honor its debts.

• This perception has contributed to high global demand for U.S. debt but, that is quickly deteriorating.

• The current debt situation raises concerns about sustainability.

• The U.S. has substantial obligations, and without sufficient productivity growth, increasing debt may lead to a cycle where borrowing to cover interest leads to more debt.

• This could result in more reliance on money creation (printing), which can drive inflation and further debt burdens.

In the words of Lyn Alden “Nothing stops this train”

Those obligations are what makes up the 40% of most the fixed income in your portfolio. So essentially you are giving money to one of the worst capital allocators in the world (U.S. Gov’t) and getting paid back with printed money.

As someone who takes their fiduciary responsibility seriously and understands the debt situation we just reviewed, I think it’s borderline negligent to put someone into a classic 60% (equities) / 40% (fixed income) portfolio without serious scrutiny of the client’s financial situation and options available to them. I certainly have my qualms with equities at times, but overall, they are more palatable than the fixed income portion of the portfolio. I don’t like it either, but the money is broken and the unit of account for nearly every equity or fixed income instrument (USD) is fraudulent. It’s a paper mache fade that is quite literally propped up by the money printer.

To briefly be as most charitable as I can – It wasn’t always this way. The U.S. Dollar used to be sound money, we used to have government surplus instead of mathematically certain deficits, The U.S. Federal Government didn’t used to have a money printing addiction, and pre-bitcoin the 60/40 portfolio used to be a quality portfolio management strategy. Those times are gone.

Now the fun part. How does bitcoin fix this?

Bitcoin fixes this indirectly. Understanding investment criteria changes via risk tolerance, age, goals, etc. A client may still have a need for “fixed income” in the most literal definition – Low risk yield. Now you may be thinking that yield is a bad word in bitcoin land, you’re not wrong, so stay with me. Perpetual motion machine crypto yield is fake and largely where many crypto scams originate. However, that doesn’t mean yield in the classic finance sense does not exist in bitcoin, it very literally does. Fortunately for us bitcoiners there are many other smart, driven, and enterprising bitcoiners that understand this problem and are doing something to address it. These individuals are pioneering new possibilities in bitcoin and finance, specifically when it comes to fixed income.

Here are some new developments –

Private Credit Funds – The Build Asset Management Secured Income Fund I is a private credit fund created by Build Asset Management. This fund primarily invests in bitcoin-backed, collateralized business loans originated by Unchained, with a secured structure involving a multi-signature, over-collateralized setup for risk management. Unchained originates loans and sells them to Build, which pools them into the fund, enabling investors to share in the interest income.

Dynamics

• Loan Terms: Unchained issues loans at interest rates around 14%, secured with a 2/3 multi-signature vault backed by a 40% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio.
• Fund Mechanics: Build buys these loans from Unchained, thus providing liquidity to Unchained for further loan originations, while Build manages interest payments to investors in the fund.

Pros

• The fund offers a unique way to earn income via bitcoin-collateralized debt, with protection against rehypothecation and strong security measures, making it attractive for investors seeking exposure to fixed income with bitcoin.

Cons

• The fund is only available to accredited investors, which is a regulatory standard for private credit funds like this.

Corporate Bonds – MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR), a business intelligence company, has leveraged its corporate structure to issue bonds specifically to acquire bitcoin as a reserve asset. This approach allows investors to indirectly gain exposure to bitcoin’s potential upside while receiving interest payments on their bond investments. Some other publicly traded companies have also adopted this strategy, but for the sake of this article we will focus on MSTR as they are the biggest and most vocal issuer.

Dynamics

• Issuance: MicroStrategy has issued senior secured notes in multiple offerings, with terms allowing the company to use the proceeds to purchase bitcoin.

• Interest Rates: The bonds typically carry high-yield interest rates, averaging around 6-8% APR, depending on the specific issuance and market conditions at the time of issuance.

• Maturity: The bonds have varying maturities, with most structured for multi-year terms, offering investors medium-term exposure to bitcoin’s value trajectory through MicroStrategy’s holdings.

Pros

• Indirect Bitcoin exposure with income provides a unique opportunity for investors seeking income from bitcoin-backed debt.

• Bonds issued by MicroStrategy offer relatively high interest rates, appealing for fixed-income investors attracted to the higher risk/reward scenarios.

Cons

• There are credit risks tied to MicroStrategy’s financial health and bitcoin’s performance. A significant drop in bitcoin prices could strain the company’s ability to service debt, increasing credit risk.

• Availability: These bonds are primarily accessible to institutional investors and accredited investors, limiting availability for retail investors.

Interest Payable in Bitcoin – River has introduced an innovative product, bitcoin Interest on Cash, allowing clients to earn interest on their U.S. dollar deposits, with the interest paid in bitcoin.

Dynamics

• Interest Payment: Clients earn an annual interest rate of 3.8% on their cash deposits. The accrued interest is converted to Bitcoin daily and paid out monthly, enabling clients to accumulate Bitcoin over time.

• Security and Accessibility: Cash deposits are insured up to $250,000 through River’s banking partner, Lead Bank, a member of the FDIC. All Bitcoin holdings are maintained in full reserve custody, ensuring that client assets are not lent or leveraged.

Pros

• There are no hidden fees or minimum balance requirements, and clients can withdraw their cash at any time.

• The 3.8% interest rate provides a predictable income stream, akin to traditional fixed-income investments.

Cons

• While the interest rate is fixed, the value of the Bitcoin received as interest can fluctuate, introducing potential variability in the investment’s overall return.

• Interest rate payments are on the lower side

Admittedly, this is a very small list, however, these types of investments are growing more numerous and meaningful. The reality is the existing options aren’t numerous enough to service every client that has a need for fixed income exposure. I challenge advisors to explore innovative options for fixed income exposure outside of sovereign debt, as that is most certainly a road to nowhere. It is my wholehearted belief and call to action that we need more options to help clients across the risk and capital allocation spectrum access a sound money standard.

Additional Resources

• River: The future of saving is here: Earn 3.8% on cash. Paid in Bitcoin.

• Onramp: Bitcoin, The Emergent Asset Class

• MicroStrategy: MicroStrategy Announces Pricing of Offering of Convertible Senior Notes

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Bitcoin and Fixed Income was Written By Wyatt O’Rourke. If you enjoyed this article then support his writing, directly, by donating to his lightning wallet: ultrahusky3@primal.net

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Originalni tekst na trzisnoresenje.blogspot.com

03.04.2013 / Autor: Slaviša Tasić

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Posle kiparske epizode naglo je došlo do rasta njegove vrednosti. Bitcoin je virtuelna valuta koju ne kontroliše niko. Umesto toga, emitovanje Bitcoina ograničeno je komplikovanim programom. Kao i kod zlata, svako može da iskopa novčiće, ali kopanje je naporno i neizvesno -- jedina je razlika što se posao ne obavlja fizički već kompjuterski. Program je postavljen tako da količina iskopanih Bitcoina raste po stalno opadajućoj stopi, dok se na kraju, za nekih stotinak godina, asimptotski ne približi konačnom nivou.

Za bliže objašnjenje Bitcoina i više o tekućim dešavanima pročešljajte Nedeljni komentar, a meni ceo fenomen postaje vrlo interesantan iz nekoliko razloga.

Prvo, Bitcoin ima mnogo neprijatelja. Neprijatelji su pristalice državnog novca, jer je ovo privatni, decentralizovani novac, čije štampanje ne kontrolišu stručnjaci za monetarnu politiku već se obavlja po automatskom programu. Tokovi novca se teško kontrolišu i neke centralne banke su već "izrazile zabrinutost" zbog rastuće uloge ove valute.

Ali, neprijatelji su i libertarijanski ekonomisti kojima je bliži zlatni standard. U njihovu viziju se ne uklapa to što Bitcoin očigledno nema pravu materijalnu vrednost. Bitcoin je nešto kao privatni fiat novac -- dosada neviđeni fenomen. Po njima tako nešto ne može da postoji i zato mu od samog početka predviđaju propast, ali ih bar za ovih par godina njegovog postojanja stvarnost demantuje.

Dalje, nastanak i dosadašnji uspeh Bitcoina se kosi sa bilo kojom postojećom teorijom i štaviše, za njegov uspeh gotovo da uopšte nema racionalnog objašnjenja. Najveća tajna slobodne razmene, bilo da je to tržište ili drugi oblici slobodne i dobrovoljne saradnje, je to što iz neorganizovane akcije slobodnih pojedinaca može doći do ishoda kojima se ne možemo unapred nadati, koji prevazilaze našu moć imaginacije i koje čak i ex post teško možemo racionalno objasniti. (To je Hayekova najvažnija ideja, a ne njegov libertarijanizam po sebi).

Bitcoin je izgledao a i dalje većini ekonomista i medija izgleda nemoguće, jer iako je njegova ponuda ograničena programom, tražnja za njim je stvar pukog verovanja. Kod zlata i srebra, tražnja postoji jer ti metali imaju i stvarnu vrednost. Kod državnog novca, tražnja postoji jer vam država kaže da morate da koristite taj novac, ali i svojim autoritetom garantuje da će svi ostali prihvatati taj novac. Kod Bitcoina vam niko ne garantuje ništa. Kako je to počelo da se koristi, kako su ljudi, posebno oni u početku, prihvatali da prodaju stvari za Bitcoine, ili da razmenjuju svoje evre i dolare za Bitcoine, meni uopšte nije jasno. Sada je lakše, valuta je donekle uspostavljena, više je prodavaca koji je prihvataju, znate da ima dovoljno onih koji je koriste i zato ima nekih osnova za verovanje da će se to nastaviti. Ali da je tako nešto moglo da počne, da nastane ni iz čega, je gotovo neshvatljivo.

Koja je budućnost Bitcoina? Većina mu predviđa propast, ali već smo videli da ima neprijatelje sa obeju strana i obe imaju svoje razloge. Propast je pre svega moguća usled državne intervencije. Možda će tako nešto jednostavno biti zabranjeno i proganjano. Kad je američka Komisija za hartije od vrednosti mogla da ugasi jako korisnu onlajn kladionicu Intrade (čije smo kvote na razne događaje u svetu ovde često linkovali), navodno iz razloga finansijske sigurnosti, onda je vrlo moguće da i Bitcoin dođe na red.

Ali ekonomski gledano, sada kad je Bitcoin došao dovde, meni se čini da može još mnogo rasti. Tačno je da tražnja za njim počiva na cikličnom verovanju, na verovanju svakog korisnika da će svi drugi nastaviti da primaju Bitcoin, ali: prvo, već nas je jednom iznanadilo da je Bitcoin samo na osnovu tog verovanja došao od nule do današnjih preko 100$ za Bitcoin. Drugo, ne zaboravite da ni ostale valute nisu baš toliko drugačije. Tražnja za državnim novcen se, bez obzira na državne garancije, dobrim delom zasniva na istoj slobodnoj veri da će i drugi prihvatati taj novac. Zlato ima materijalnu vrednost, ali ta vrednost, za industrijsku upotrebu ili nakit, je obično dosta manja od njegove sadašnje cene. Nisu se u poslenjih nekoliko godina industrijska upotreba i atraktivnost zlatnog nakita promenili, već su se promenila očekivanja vrednosti zlata, koja takođe zavise od vaše pretpostavke da će i ostali nastaviti da kupuju i drže zlato.

Zato mislim da ekonomski Bitcoin više nema problem. Sa ovako ograničenom ponudom, a uz održanje sadašnje tražnje ili njen rast, njegove vrednost može i još mnogo da poraste. Mnogo realniji scenario raspada je panika posle najave država da će zabraniti njegovu upotrebu uz neki izgovor kao što su finansijska stabilnost ili sprečavanje pranja novca. Ali čak i ako se to dogodi ostaće fascinantno da je ovakva inicijativa uopšte uspela -- protivno zakonima slabašne ljudske logike.

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\ \ It was another historic week for both bitcoin and the Ten31 portfolio, as the world’s oldest, largest, most battle-tested cryptocurrency climbed to new all-time highs each day to close out the week just shy of the $100,000 mark. Along the way, bitcoin continued to accumulate institutional and regulatory wins, including the much-anticipated approval and launch of spot bitcoin ETF options and the appointment of several additional pro-bitcoin Presidential cabinet officials. The timing for this momentum was poetic, as this week marked the second anniversary of the pico-bottom of the 2022 bear market, a level that bitcoin has now hurdled to the tune of more than 6x despite the litany of bitcoin obituaries published at the time. The entirety of 2024 and especially the past month have further cemented our view that bitcoin is rapidly gaining a sense of legitimacy among institutions, fiduciaries, and governments, and we remain optimistic that this trend is set to accelerate even more into 2025.

Several Ten31 portfolio companies made exciting announcements this week that should serve to further entrench bitcoin’s institutional adoption. AnchorWatch, a first of its kind bitcoin insurance provider offering 1:1 coverage with its innovative use of bitcoin’s native properties, announced it has been designated a Lloyd’s of London Coverholder, giving the company unique, blue-chip status as it begins to write bitcoin insurance policies of up to $100 million per policy starting next month. Meanwhile, Battery Finance Founder and CEO Andrew Hohns appeared on CNBC to delve into the launch of Battery’s pioneering private credit strategy which fuses bitcoin and conventional tangible assets in a dual-collateralized structure that offers a compelling risk/return profile to both lenders and borrowers. Both companies are clearing a path for substantially greater bitcoin adoption in massive, untapped pools of capital, and Ten31 is proud to have served as lead investor for AnchorWatch’s Seed round and as exclusive capital partner for Battery.

As the world’s largest investor focused entirely on bitcoin, Ten31 has deployed nearly $150 million across two funds into more than 30 of the most promising and innovative companies in the ecosystem like AnchorWatch and Battery, and we expect 2025 to be the best year yet for both bitcoin and our portfolio. Ten31 will hold a first close for its third fund at the end of this year, and investors in that close will benefit from attractive incentives and a strong initial portfolio. Visit ten31.vc/funds to learn more and get in touch to discuss participating.\ \ Portfolio Company Spotlight 

Primal is a first of its kind application for the Nostr protocol that combines a client, caching service, analytics tools, and more to address several unmet needs in the nascent Nostr ecosystem. Through the combination of its sleek client application and its caching service (built on a completely open source stack), Primal seeks to offer an end-user experience as smooth and easy as that of legacy social media platforms like Twitter and eventually many other applications, unlocking the vast potential of Nostr for the next billion people. Primal also offers an integrated wallet (powered by Strike BLACK) that substantially reduces onboarding and UX frictions for both Nostr and the lightning network while highlighting bitcoin’s unique power as internet-native, open-source money. 

Selected Portfolio News

AnchorWatch announced it has achieved Llody’s Coverholder status, allowing the company to provide unique 1:1 bitcoin insurance offerings starting in December.\ \ Battery Finance Founder and CEO Andrew Hohns appeared on CNBC to delve into the company’s unique bitcoin-backed private credit strategy.

Primal launched version 2.0, a landmark update that adds a feed marketplace, robust advanced search capabilities, premium-tier offerings, and many more new features.

Debifi launched its new iOS app for Apple users seeking non-custodial bitcoin-collateralized loans.

Media

Strike Founder and CEO Jack Mallers joined Bloomberg TV to discuss the strong volumes the company has seen over the past year and the potential for a US bitcoin strategic reserve. 

Primal Founder and CEO Miljan Braticevic joined The Bitcoin Podcast to discuss the rollout of Primal 2.0 and the future of Nostr. 

Ten31 Managing Partner Marty Bent appeared on BlazeTV to discuss recent changes in the regulatory environment for bitcoin. 

Zaprite published a customer testimonial video highlighting the popularity of its offerings across the bitcoin ecosystem. 

Market Updates

Continuing its recent momentum, bitcoin reached another new all-time high this week, clocking in just below $100,000 on Friday. Bitcoin has now reached a market cap of nearly $2 trillion, putting it within 3% of the market caps of Amazon and Google. 

After receiving SEC and CFTC approval over the past month, long-awaited options on spot bitcoin ETFs were fully approved and launched this week. These options should help further expand bitcoin’s institutional liquidity profile, with potentially significant implications for price action over time.

The new derivatives showed strong performance out of the gate, with volumes on options for BlackRock’s IBIT reaching nearly $2 billion on just the first day of trading despite surprisingly tight position limits for the vehicles. 

Meanwhile, the underlying spot bitcoin ETF complex had yet another banner week, pulling in $3.4 billion in net inflows. 

New reports suggested President-elect Donald Trump’s social media company is in advanced talks to acquire crypto trading platform Bakkt, potentially the latest indication of the incoming administration’s stance toward the broader “crypto” ecosystem. 

On the macro front, US housing starts declined M/M again in October on persistently high mortgage rates and weather impacts. The metric remains well below pre-COVID levels. 

Pockets of the US commercial real estate market remain challenged, as the CEO of large Florida developer Related indicated that developers need further rate cuts “badly” to maintain project viability. 

US Manufacturing PMI increased slightly M/M, but has now been in contraction territory (<50) for well over two years.

The latest iteration of the University of Michigan’s popular consumer sentiment survey ticked up following this month’s election results, though so did five-year inflation expectations, which now sit comfortably north of 3%. 

Regulatory Update

After weeks of speculation, the incoming Trump administration appointed hedge fund manager Scott Bessent to head up the US Treasury. Like many of Trump’s cabinet selections so far, Bessent has been a public advocate for bitcoin. 

Trump also appointed Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick – another outspoken bitcoin bull – as Secretary of the Commerce Department. 

Meanwhile, the Trump team is reportedly considering creating a new “crypto czar” role to sit within the administration. While it’s unclear at this point what that role would entail, one report indicated that the administration’s broader “crypto council” is expected to move forward with plans for a strategic bitcoin reserve.

Various government lawyers suggested this week that the Trump administration is likely to be less aggressive in seeking adversarial enforcement actions against bitcoin and “crypto” in general, as regulatory bodies appear poised to shift resources and focus elsewhere. 

Other updates from the regulatory apparatus were also directionally positive for bitcoin, most notably FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg’s confirmation that he plans to resign from his post at the end of President Biden’s term. 

Many critics have alleged Gruenberg was an architect of “Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” which has created banking headwinds for bitcoin companies over the past several years, so a change of leadership at the department is likely yet another positive for the space.

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler also officially announced he plans to resign at the start of the new administration. Gensler has been the target of much ire from the broader “crypto” space, though we expect many projects outside bitcoin may continue to struggle with questions around the Howey Test.

Overseas, a Chinese court ruled that it is not illegal for individuals to hold cryptocurrency, even though the country is still ostensibly enforcing a ban on crypto transactions. 

Noteworthy

The incoming CEO of Charles Schwab – which administers over $9 trillion in client assets – suggested the platform is preparing to “get into” spot bitcoin offerings and that he “feels silly” for having waited this long. As this attitude becomes more common among traditional finance players, we continue to believe that the number of acquirers coming to market for bitcoin infrastructure capabilities will far outstrip the number of available high quality assets. 

BlackRock’s 2025 Thematic Outlook notes a “renewed sense of optimism” on bitcoin among the asset manager’s client base due to macro tailwinds and the improving regulatory environment. Elsewhere, BlackRock’s head of digital assets indicated the firm does not view bitcoin as a “risk-on” asset. 

MicroStrategy, which was a sub-$1 billion market cap company less than five years ago, briefly breached a $100 billion equity value this week as it continues to aggressively acquire bitcoin. The company now holds nearly 350,000 bitcoin on its balance sheet. 

Notably, Allianz SE, Germany’s largest insurer, spoke for 25% of MicroStrategy’s latest $3 billion convertible note offering this week, suggesting growing appetite for bitcoin proxy exposure among more restricted pools of capital. 

The ongoing meltdown of fintech middleware provider Synapse has left tens of thousands of customers with nearly 100% deposit haircuts as hundreds of millions in funds remain missing, the latest unfortunate case study in the fragility of much of the US’s legacy banking stack. 

Travel

• BitcoinMENA, Dec 9-10

• Nashville BitDevs, Dec 10

• Austin BitDevs, Dec 19

• Nashville Energy and Mining Summit, Jan 30

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Original: https://techreport.com/crypto-news/brazil-central-bank-ban-monero-stablecoins/

Brazilian’s Central Bank Will Ban Monero and Algorithmic Stablecoins in the Country

Brazil proposes crypto regulations banning Monero and algorithmic stablecoins and enforcing strict compliance for exchanges.

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KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The Central Bank of Brazil has proposed regulations prohibiting privacy-centric cryptocurrencies like Monero.
• The regulations categorize exchanges into intermediaries, custodians, and brokers, each with specific capital requirements and compliance standards.
• While the proposed rules apply to cryptocurrencies, certain digital assets like non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are still ‘deregulated’ in Brazil.

In a Notice of Participation announcement, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) outlines regulations for virtual asset service providers (VASPs) operating in the country.

In the document, the Brazilian regulator specifies that privacy-focused coins, such as Monero, must be excluded from all digital asset companies that intend to operate in Brazil.

Let’s unpack what effect these regulations will have.

Brazil’s Crackdown on Crypto Fraud

If the BCB’s current rule is approved, exchanges dealing with coins that provide anonymity must delist these currencies or prevent Brazilians from accessing and operating these assets.

The Central Bank argues that currencies like Monero make it difficult and even prevent the identification of users, thus creating problems in complying with international AML obligations and policies to prevent the financing of terrorism.

According to the Central Bank of Brazil, the bans aim to prevent criminals from using digital assets to launder money. In Brazil, organized criminal syndicates such as the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) and Comando Vermelho have been increasingly using digital assets for money laundering and foreign remittances.

… restriction on the supply of virtual assets that contain characteristics of fragility, insecurity or risks that favor fraud or crime, such as virtual assets designed to favor money laundering and terrorist financing practices by facilitating anonymity or difficulty identification of the holder.

– Notice of Participation

The Central Bank has identified that removing algorithmic stablecoins is essential to guarantee the safety of users’ funds and avoid events such as when Terraform Labs’ entire ecosystem collapsed, losing billions of investors’ dollars.

The Central Bank also wants to control all digital assets traded by companies in Brazil. According to the current proposal, the national regulator will have the power to ask platforms to remove certain listed assets if it considers that they do not meet local regulations.

However, the regulations will not include NFTs, real-world asset (RWA) tokens, RWA tokens classified as securities, and tokenized movable or real estate assets. These assets are still ‘deregulated’ in Brazil.

Monero: What Is It and Why Is Brazil Banning It?

Monero ($XMR) is a cryptocurrency that uses a protocol called CryptoNote. It launched in 2013 and ‘erases’ transaction data, preventing the sender and recipient addresses from being publicly known. The Monero network is based on a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism, which incentivizes miners to add blocks to the blockchain. 

Like Brazil, other nations are banning Monero in search of regulatory compliance. Recently, Dubai’s new digital asset rules prohibited the issuance of activities related to anonymity-enhancing cryptocurrencies such as $XMR.

Furthermore, exchanges such as Binance have already announced they will delist Monero on their global platforms due to its anonymity features. Kraken did the same, removing Monero for their European-based users to comply with MiCA regulations.

Data from Chainalysis shows that Brazil is the seventh-largest Bitcoin market in the world.

In Latin America, Brazil is the largest market for digital assets. Globally, it leads in the innovation of RWA tokens, with several companies already trading this type of asset.

In Closing

Following other nations, Brazil’s regulatory proposals aim to combat illicit activities such as money laundering and terrorism financing.

Will the BCB’s move safeguard people’s digital assets while also stimulating growth and innovation in the crypto ecosystem? Only time will tell.

References

Cassio Gusson is a journalist passionate about technology, cryptocurrencies, and the nuances of human nature. With a career spanning roles as Senior Crypto Journalist at CriptoFacil and Head of News at CoinTelegraph, he offers exclusive insights on South America’s crypto landscape. A graduate in Communication from Faccamp and a post-graduate in Globalization and Culture from FESPSP, Cassio explores the intersection of governance, decentralization, and the evolution of global systems.

View all articles by Cassio Gusson

@ 5e5fc143:393d5a2c

Now test old reliable front end Stay tuned more later Keeping this as template long note for debugging in future as come across few NIP-33 post edit issues

@ 41e6f20b:06049e45

Let me tell you a beautiful story. Last night, during the speakers' dinner at Monerotopia, the waitress was collecting tiny tips in Mexican pesos. I asked her, "Do you really want to earn tips seriously?" I then showed her how to set up a Cake Wallet, and she started collecting tips in Monero, reaching 0.9 XMR. Of course, she wanted to cash out to fiat immediately, but it solved a real problem for her: making more money. That amount was something she would never have earned in a single workday. We kept talking, and I promised to give her Zoom workshops. What can I say? I love people, and that's why I'm a natural orange-piller.

@ 4ba8e86d:89d32de4

Tutorial feito por nostr:nostr:npub1rc56x0ek0dd303eph523g3chm0wmrs5wdk6vs0ehd0m5fn8t7y4sqra3tk poste original abaixo:

Parte 1 : http://xh6liiypqffzwnu5734ucwps37tn2g6npthvugz3gdoqpikujju525yd.onion/263585/tutorial-debloat-de-celulares-android-via-adb-parte-1

Parte 2 : http://xh6liiypqffzwnu5734ucwps37tn2g6npthvugz3gdoqpikujju525yd.onion/index.php/263586/tutorial-debloat-de-celulares-android-via-adb-parte-2

Quando o assunto é privacidade em celulares, uma das medidas comumente mencionadas é a remoção de bloatwares do dispositivo, também chamado de debloat. O meio mais eficiente para isso sem dúvidas é a troca de sistema operacional. Custom Rom’s como LineageOS, GrapheneOS, Iodé, CalyxOS, etc, já são bastante enxutos nesse quesito, principalmente quanto não é instalado os G-Apps com o sistema. No entanto, essa prática pode acabar resultando em problemas indesejados como a perca de funções do dispositivo, e até mesmo incompatibilidade com apps bancários, tornando este método mais atrativo para quem possui mais de um dispositivo e separando um apenas para privacidade.   Pensando nisso, pessoas que possuem apenas um único dispositivo móvel, que são necessitadas desses apps ou funções, mas, ao mesmo tempo, tem essa visão em prol da privacidade, buscam por um meio-termo entre manter a Stock rom, e não ter seus dados coletados por esses bloatwares. Felizmente, a remoção de bloatwares é possível e pode ser realizada via root, ou mais da maneira que este artigo irá tratar, via adb.

O que são bloatwares?

Bloatware é a junção das palavras bloat (inchar) + software (programa), ou seja, um bloatware é basicamente um programa inútil ou facilmente substituível — colocado em seu dispositivo previamente pela fabricante e operadora — que está no seu dispositivo apenas ocupando espaço de armazenamento, consumindo memória RAM e pior, coletando seus dados e enviando para servidores externos, além de serem mais pontos de vulnerabilidades.

O que é o adb?

O Android Debug Brigde, ou apenas adb, é uma ferramenta que se utiliza das permissões de usuário shell e permite o envio de comandos vindo de um computador para um dispositivo Android exigindo apenas que a depuração USB esteja ativa, mas também pode ser usada diretamente no celular a partir do Android 11, com o uso do Termux e a depuração sem fio (ou depuração wifi). A ferramenta funciona normalmente em dispositivos sem root, e também funciona caso o celular esteja em Recovery Mode.

Requisitos:

Para computadores:

• Depuração USB ativa no celular; • Computador com adb; • Cabo USB;

Para celulares:

• Depuração sem fio (ou depuração wifi) ativa no celular; • Termux; • Android 11 ou superior;

Para ambos:

• Firewall NetGuard instalado e configurado no celular; • Lista de bloatwares para seu dispositivo;

Ativação de depuração:

Para ativar a Depuração USB em seu dispositivo, pesquise como ativar as opções de desenvolvedor de seu dispositivo, e lá ative a depuração. No caso da depuração sem fio, sua ativação irá ser necessária apenas no momento que for conectar o dispositivo ao Termux.

Instalação e configuração do NetGuard

O NetGuard pode ser instalado através da própria Google Play Store, mas de preferência instale pela F-Droid ou Github para evitar telemetria.

F-Droid: https://f-droid.org/packages/eu.faircode.netguard/

Github: https://github.com/M66B/NetGuard/releases

Após instalado, configure da seguinte maneira:

Configurações → padrões (lista branca/negra) → ative as 3 primeiras opções (bloquear wifi, bloquear dados móveis e aplicar regras ‘quando tela estiver ligada’);

Configurações → opções avançadas → ative as duas primeiras (administrar aplicativos do sistema e registrar acesso a internet);

Com isso, todos os apps estarão sendo bloqueados de acessar a internet, seja por wifi ou dados móveis, e na página principal do app basta permitir o acesso a rede para os apps que você vai usar (se necessário). Permita que o app rode em segundo plano sem restrição da otimização de bateria, assim quando o celular ligar, ele já estará ativo.

Lista de bloatwares

Nem todos os bloatwares são genéricos, haverá bloatwares diferentes conforme a marca, modelo, versão do Android, e até mesmo região.

Para obter uma lista de bloatwares de seu dispositivo, caso seu aparelho já possua um tempo de existência, você encontrará listas prontas facilmente apenas pesquisando por elas. Supondo que temos um Samsung Galaxy Note 10 Plus em mãos, basta pesquisar em seu motor de busca por:

Samsung Galaxy Note 10 Plus bloatware list

Provavelmente essas listas já terão inclusas todos os bloatwares das mais diversas regiões, lhe poupando o trabalho de buscar por alguma lista mais específica.

Caso seu aparelho seja muito recente, e/ou não encontre uma lista pronta de bloatwares, devo dizer que você acaba de pegar em merda, pois é chato para um caralho pesquisar por cada aplicação para saber sua função, se é essencial para o sistema ou se é facilmente substituível.

De antemão já aviso, que mais para frente, caso vossa gostosura remova um desses aplicativos que era essencial para o sistema sem saber, vai acabar resultando na perda de alguma função importante, ou pior, ao reiniciar o aparelho o sistema pode estar quebrado, lhe obrigando a seguir com uma formatação, e repetir todo o processo novamente.

Download do adb em computadores

Para usar a ferramenta do adb em computadores, basta baixar o pacote chamado SDK platform-tools, disponível através deste link: https://developer.android.com/tools/releases/platform-tools. Por ele, você consegue o download para Windows, Mac e Linux.

Uma vez baixado, basta extrair o arquivo zipado, contendo dentro dele uma pasta chamada platform-tools que basta ser aberta no terminal para se usar o adb.

Download do adb em celulares com Termux.

Para usar a ferramenta do adb diretamente no celular, antes temos que baixar o app Termux, que é um emulador de terminal linux, e já possui o adb em seu repositório. Você encontra o app na Google Play Store, mas novamente recomendo baixar pela F-Droid ou diretamente no Github do projeto.

F-Droid: https://f-droid.org/en/packages/com.termux/

Github: https://github.com/termux/termux-app/releases

Processo de debloat

Antes de iniciarmos, é importante deixar claro que não é para você sair removendo todos os bloatwares de cara sem mais nem menos, afinal alguns deles precisam antes ser substituídos, podem ser essenciais para você para alguma atividade ou função, ou até mesmo são insubstituíveis.

Alguns exemplos de bloatwares que a substituição é necessária antes da remoção, é o Launcher, afinal, é a interface gráfica do sistema, e o teclado, que sem ele só é possível digitar com teclado externo. O Launcher e teclado podem ser substituídos por quaisquer outros, minha recomendação pessoal é por aqueles que respeitam sua privacidade, como Pie Launcher e Simple Laucher, enquanto o teclado pelo OpenBoard e FlorisBoard, todos open-source e disponíveis da F-Droid.

Identifique entre a lista de bloatwares, quais você gosta, precisa ou prefere não substituir, de maneira alguma você é obrigado a remover todos os bloatwares possíveis, modifique seu sistema a seu bel-prazer. O NetGuard lista todos os apps do celular com o nome do pacote, com isso você pode filtrar bem qual deles não remover.

Um exemplo claro de bloatware insubstituível e, portanto, não pode ser removido, é o com.android.mtp, um protocolo onde sua função é auxiliar a comunicação do dispositivo com um computador via USB, mas por algum motivo, tem acesso a rede e se comunica frequentemente com servidores externos. Para esses casos, e melhor solução mesmo é bloquear o acesso a rede desses bloatwares com o NetGuard.

MTP tentando comunicação com servidores externos:

Executando o adb shell

No computador

Faça backup de todos os seus arquivos importantes para algum armazenamento externo, e formate seu celular com o hard reset. Após a formatação, e a ativação da depuração USB, conecte seu aparelho e o pc com o auxílio de um cabo USB. Muito provavelmente seu dispositivo irá apenas começar a carregar, por isso permita a transferência de dados, para que o computador consiga se comunicar normalmente com o celular.

Já no pc, abra a pasta platform-tools dentro do terminal, e execute o seguinte comando:

./adb start-server

O resultado deve ser:

daemon not running; starting now at tcp:5037 daemon started successfully

E caso não apareça nada, execute:

./adb kill-server

E inicie novamente.

Com o adb conectado ao celular, execute:

./adb shell

Para poder executar comandos diretamente para o dispositivo. No meu caso, meu celular é um Redmi Note 8 Pro, codinome Begonia.

Logo o resultado deve ser:

begonia:/ $

Caso ocorra algum erro do tipo:

adb: device unauthorized. This adb server’s $ADB_VENDOR_KEYS is not set Try ‘adb kill-server’ if that seems wrong. Otherwise check for a confirmation dialog on your device.

Verifique no celular se apareceu alguma confirmação para autorizar a depuração USB, caso sim, autorize e tente novamente. Caso não apareça nada, execute o kill-server e repita o processo.

No celular

Após realizar o mesmo processo de backup e hard reset citado anteriormente, instale o Termux e, com ele iniciado, execute o comando:

pkg install android-tools

Quando surgir a mensagem “Do you want to continue? [Y/n]”, basta dar enter novamente que já aceita e finaliza a instalação

Agora, vá até as opções de desenvolvedor, e ative a depuração sem fio. Dentro das opções da depuração sem fio, terá uma opção de emparelhamento do dispositivo com um código, que irá informar para você um código em emparelhamento, com um endereço IP e porta, que será usado para a conexão com o Termux.

Para facilitar o processo, recomendo que abra tanto as configurações quanto o Termux ao mesmo tempo, e divida a tela com os dois app’s, como da maneira a seguir:

Para parear o Termux com o dispositivo, não é necessário digitar o ip informado, basta trocar por “localhost”, já a porta e o código de emparelhamento, deve ser digitado exatamente como informado. Execute:

adb pair localhost:porta CódigoDeEmparelhamento

De acordo com a imagem mostrada anteriormente, o comando ficaria “adb pair localhost:41255 757495”.

Com o dispositivo emparelhado com o Termux, agora basta conectar para conseguir executar os comandos, para isso execute:

adb connect localhost:porta

Obs: a porta que você deve informar neste comando não é a mesma informada com o código de emparelhamento, e sim a informada na tela principal da depuração sem fio.

Pronto! Termux e adb conectado com sucesso ao dispositivo, agora basta executar normalmente o adb shell:

adb shell

Remoção na prática Com o adb shell executado, você está pronto para remover os bloatwares. No meu caso, irei mostrar apenas a remoção de um app (Google Maps), já que o comando é o mesmo para qualquer outro, mudando apenas o nome do pacote.

Dentro do NetGuard, verificando as informações do Google Maps:

Podemos ver que mesmo fora de uso, e com a localização do dispositivo desativado, o app está tentando loucamente se comunicar com servidores externos, e informar sabe-se lá que peste. Mas sem novidades até aqui, o mais importante é que podemos ver que o nome do pacote do Google Maps é com.google.android.apps.maps, e para o remover do celular, basta executar:

pm uninstall –user 0 com.google.android.apps.maps

E pronto, bloatware removido! Agora basta repetir o processo para o resto dos bloatwares, trocando apenas o nome do pacote.

Para acelerar o processo, você pode já criar uma lista do bloco de notas com os comandos, e quando colar no terminal, irá executar um atrás do outro.

Exemplo de lista:

Caso a donzela tenha removido alguma coisa sem querer, também é possível recuperar o pacote com o comando:

cmd package install-existing nome.do.pacote

Pós-debloat

Após limpar o máximo possível o seu sistema, reinicie o aparelho, caso entre no como recovery e não seja possível dar reboot, significa que você removeu algum app “essencial” para o sistema, e terá que formatar o aparelho e repetir toda a remoção novamente, desta vez removendo poucos bloatwares de uma vez, e reiniciando o aparelho até descobrir qual deles não pode ser removido. Sim, dá trabalho… quem mandou querer privacidade?

Caso o aparelho reinicie normalmente após a remoção, parabéns, agora basta usar seu celular como bem entender! Mantenha o NetGuard sempre executando e os bloatwares que não foram possíveis remover não irão se comunicar com servidores externos, passe a usar apps open source da F-Droid e instale outros apps através da Aurora Store ao invés da Google Play Store.

Referências: Caso você seja um Australopithecus e tenha achado este guia difícil, eis uma videoaula (3:14:40) do Anderson do canal Ciberdef, realizando todo o processo: http://odysee.com/@zai:5/Como-remover-at%C3%A9-200-APLICATIVOS-que-colocam-a-sua-PRIVACIDADE-E-SEGURAN%C3%87A-em-risco.:4?lid=6d50f40314eee7e2f218536d9e5d300290931d23

Pdf’s do Anderson citados na videoaula: créditos ao anon6837264 http://eternalcbrzpicytj4zyguygpmkjlkddxob7tptlr25cdipe5svyqoqd.onion/file/3863a834d29285d397b73a4af6fb1bbe67c888d72d30/t-05e63192d02ffd.pdf

Processo de instalação do Termux e adb no celular: https://youtu.be/APolZrPHSms

@ 3bf0c63f:aefa459d

Nostr is not decentralized nor censorship-resistant

Peter Todd has been saying this for a long time and all the time I've been thinking he is misunderstanding everything, but I guess a more charitable interpretation is that he is right.

Nostr today is indeed centralized.

Yesterday I published two harmless notes with the exact same content at the same time. In two minutes the notes had a noticeable difference in responses:

The top one was published to wss://nostr.wine, wss://nos.lol, wss://pyramid.fiatjaf.com. The second was published to the relay where I generally publish all my notes to, wss://pyramid.fiatjaf.com, and that is announced on my NIP-05 file and on my NIP-65 relay list.

A few minutes later I published that screenshot again in two identical notes to the same sets of relays, asking if people understood the implications. The difference in quantity of responses can still be seen today:

These results are skewed now by the fact that the two notes got rebroadcasted to multiple relays after some time, but the fundamental point remains.

What happened was that a huge lot more of people saw the first note compared to the second, and if Nostr was really censorship-resistant that shouldn't have happened at all.

Some people implied in the comments, with an air of obviousness, that publishing the note to "more relays" should have predictably resulted in more replies, which, again, shouldn't be the case if Nostr is really censorship-resistant.

What happens is that most people who engaged with the note are following me, in the sense that they have instructed their clients to fetch my notes on their behalf and present them in the UI, and clients are failing to do that despite me making it clear in multiple ways that my notes are to be found on wss://pyramid.fiatjaf.com.

If we were talking not about me, but about some public figure that was being censored by the State and got banned (or shadowbanned) by the 3 biggest public relays, the sad reality would be that the person would immediately get his reach reduced to ~10% of what they had before. This is not at all unlike what happened to dozens of personalities that were banned from the corporate social media platforms and then moved to other platforms -- how many of their original followers switched to these other platforms? Probably some small percentage close to 10%. In that sense Nostr today is similar to what we had before.

Peter Todd is right that if the way Nostr works is that you just subscribe to a small set of relays and expect to get everything from them then it tends to get very centralized very fast, and this is the reality today.

Peter Todd is wrong that Nostr is inherently centralized or that it needs a protocol change to become what it has always purported to be. He is in fact wrong today, because what is written above is not valid for all clients of today, and if we drive in the right direction we can successfully make Peter Todd be more and more wrong as time passes, instead of the contrary.

---

See also:

• Censorship-resistant relay discovery in Nostr
• A vision for content discovery and relay usage for basic social-networking in Nostr

@ 2f4550b0:95f20096

Leadership is rarely a smooth ride. For every moment of success, there are setbacks and challenges that test even the most seasoned leaders. The key to sustained success isn’t avoiding difficulties but rather how effectively one can navigate through them. Resilience, the ability to bounce back from adversity, is not just a personal asset; it’s a leadership imperative.

I remember an experience earlier in my career that underscored the power of resilience in leadership. I was leading a team on a high-stakes project. We had invested countless hours, fine-tuned every detail, and had finally reached the presentation phase. Then, disaster struck: the technology we relied on for the demo failed at the last minute. The team’s morale plummeted. I saw the disappointment in their faces, and I could feel the weight of their expectations on me.

At that moment, I had a choice: I could either give in to frustration and let the team spiral, or I could model resilience and lead them through the crisis. I took a deep breath and reminded myself that setbacks are temporary and often lead to growth. We brainstormed solutions on the spot, restructured our approach, and within hours had a makeshift presentation that was just as impactful as our original plan. In the end, we delivered it successfully—and I learned one of the most valuable lessons in leadership: resilience doesn’t mean avoiding failure, but rather how we respond when things don’t go as planned.

This experience taught me that resilient leadership hinges on a few essential principles:

• Maintain a Positive Outlook: As a leader, your mindset directly influences your team. When faced with setbacks, staying calm and optimistic can help anchor the group. A positive perspective allows you to focus on solutions instead of dwelling on problems.
• Adapt and Problem-Solve: Resilience is about adaptability. Things don’t always go according to plan, and being able to quickly pivot and think creatively in the face of adversity is crucial. Resilient leaders encourage their teams to embrace change, adapt, and find alternative solutions.
• Support Your Team: Leaders cannot be resilient alone. Resilience thrives in a supportive environment. Offer your team encouragement, communicate openly, and make sure they know they have your support. By fostering a culture of mutual trust, you’ll enable everyone to recover and grow stronger together.
• Learn from Setbacks: Every challenge presents an opportunity to learn. Resilient leaders view failures as stepping stones to improvement. Reflecting on what went wrong and why, allows leaders and teams to strengthen their strategies moving forward.

In leadership, setbacks are inevitable. What sets great leaders apart is their ability to bounce back. With resilience, you can navigate through challenges with confidence and lead your team toward continued success.

@ 7f29628d:e160cccc

Der gut informierte Bürger denkt bei der Pandemie sofort an Intensivstationen, an die Bilder aus Bergamo und erinnert sich an die Berichterstattung damals – also muss es wohl ein Maximum gewesen sein. Manche Skeptiker behaupten jedoch das Gegenteil. Klarheit sollte ein Blick nach Wiesbaden, zum Statistischen Bundesamt, schaffen. Schließlich sitzen dort gut bezahlte Profis, die seit vielen Jahrzehnten die Sterbestatistik pflegen und veröffentlichen. Jeder Todesfall wird in Deutschland über die Standesämter exakt erfasst.

Doch die Überraschung: Das Statistische Bundesamt liefert uns auf diese einfache Frage zwei extrem unterschiedliche Antworten – ein Minimum und ein Maximum. Das Ergebnis hängt davon ab, wie tief man in die Veröffentlichungen des Bundesamtes eintaucht. Betrachtet man nur die Webseiten und Pressemitteilungen, erhält man den Eindruck eines Maximums. Schaut man jedoch etwas tiefer in die Tabellen und Rohdaten, zeigt sich plötzlich ein Minimum. Aber wie kann das sein? Beides gleichzeitig geht ja wohl kaum. Wer lügt hier – die Tabellen des Amtes oder die Pressemitteilungen? Gehen wir dieser Frage Schritt für Schritt auf den Grund.

2020: Ein historisches Maximum?

Schauen wir uns die vielen Hundert Veröffentlichungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes aus dieser Zeit an. Oder wir kürzen ab und fragen ChatGPT, da die KI auf diesen Daten trainiert wurde und das gesamte Material kennt. Die Frage an ChatGPT lautet also: Wie war das Sterbegeschehen im Jahr 2020 im Vergleich zu den Vorjahren?

ChatGPT antwortet: »Im Jahr 2020 war die Sterblichkeit in Deutschland höher als in den Jahren zuvor. Es gab eine Übersterblichkeit von etwa 982.000 Todesfällen, das sind rund 46.000 mehr als der Durchschnitt der Vorjahre (2016 bis 2019). Dieser Anstieg wurde überwiegend im Zusammenhang mit der COVID-19-Pandemie gesehen. Während die Sterbezahlen in den Vorjahren schwankten, war ein solch signifikanter Anstieg wie 2020 bisher nicht zu beobachten.«

Wir fragen konkreter: Ist es ein Fakt, dass wir eine so ernste Lage im Sterbegeschehen wie im Frühjahr 2020 noch nie erlebt haben?

ChatGPT bestätigt: »Ja, die COVID-19-Pandemie führte im Frühjahr 2020 zu einer außergewöhnlichen Situation im Sterbegeschehen in Deutschland. Die dramatische Übersterblichkeit, die ab der 13. Kalenderwoche auftrat, veranlasste das Statistische Bundesamt, besonders eindringliche Warnungen zu veröffentlichen. Der damalige Vizepräsident des Amtes und andere führende Stimmen wiesen öffentlich darauf hin, dass die Todesfallzahlen stark vom Durchschnitt abwichen. Diese klare Warnung richtete sich an die Öffentlichkeit und die Politik gleichermaßen. Die Medien berichteten intensiv über diese Warnungen, was das Bewusstsein für die Schwere der Pandemie erheblich schärfte. In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten hatte es keine vergleichbare Übersterblichkeit gegeben, die eine solch umfangreiche Kommunikation durch das Statistische Bundesamt erforderlich gemacht hätte.«

Ein gut informierter Zeitungsleser wird sich an dieser Stelle bestätigt fühlen: Ja, so war es damals. Ein Maximum im Sterbegeschehen – wegen der Pandemie. Oder etwa nicht?

2020: Ein historisches Minimum?

Tauchen wir in die Rohdaten des Statistischen Bundesamtes ein. Die Tabellen, die das Amt seit Jahrzehnten verlässlich veröffentlicht, nennen sich Sterbetafeln. Diese werden jährlich bereitgestellt und stehen auf der Website des Bundesamtes zum Download bereit. Ein erster Blick in die Sterbetafeln mag den Laien abschrecken, doch mit einer kurzen Erklärung wird alles verständlich. Wir gehen schrittweise vor.

Nehmen wir die Sterbetafel des Jahres 2017. Sie enthält zwei große Tabellen – eine für Männer und eine für Frauen. Jede Zeile der Tabelle steht für einen Jahrgang, zum Beispiel zeigt die Zeile 79 die Daten der 79-jährigen Männer. Besonders wichtig ist nun die zweite Spalte, in der der Wert 0,05 eingetragen ist. Das bedeutet, dass 5 Prozent der 79-jährigen Männer im Jahr 2017 verstorben sind. Das ist die wichtige Kennzahl. Wenn wir diesen exakten Wert, den man auch als Sterberate bezeichnet, nun in ein Säulendiagramm eintragen, erhalten wir eine leicht verständliche visuelle Darstellung (Grafik 1).

Es ist wichtig zu betonen, dass dieser Wert weder ein Schätzwert noch eine Modellrechnung oder Prognose ist, sondern ein exakter Messwert, basierend auf einer zuverlässigen Zählung. Sterberaten (für die Fachleute auch Sterbewahrscheinlichkeiten qx) sind seit Johann Peter Süßmilch (1707–1767) der Goldstandard der Sterbestatistik. Jeder Aktuar wird das bestätigen. Fügen wir nun die Sterberaten der 79-jährigen Männer aus den Jahren davor und danach hinzu, um das Gesamtbild zu sehen (Grafik 2). Und nun die entscheidende Frage: Zeigt das Jahr 2020 ein Maximum oder ein Minimum?

Ein kritischer Leser könnte vermuten, dass die 79-jährigen Männer eine Ausnahme darstellen und andere Jahrgänge im Jahr 2020 ein Maximum zeigen würden. Doch das trifft nicht zu. Kein einziger Jahrgang verzeichnete im Jahr 2020 ein Maximum. Im Gegenteil: Auch die 1-Jährigen, 2-Jährigen, 3-Jährigen, 9-Jährigen, 10-Jährigen, 15-Jährigen, 18-Jährigen und viele weitere männliche Jahrgänge hatten ihr Minimum im Jahr 2020. Dasselbe gilt bei den Frauen. Insgesamt hatten 31 Jahrgänge ihr Minimum im Jahr 2020. Wenn wir schließlich alle Jahrgänge in einer einzigen Grafik zusammenfassen, ergibt sich ein klares Bild: Das Minimum im Sterbegeschehen lag im Jahr 2020 (Grafik 3).

Ein kritischer Leser könnte nun wiederum vermuten, dass es innerhalb des Jahres 2020 möglicherweise starke Ausschläge nach oben bei einzelnen Jahrgängen gegeben haben könnte, die später durch Ausschläge nach unten ausgeglichen wurden – und dass diese Schwankungen in der jährlichen Übersicht nicht sichtbar sind. Doch auch das trifft nicht zu. Ein Blick auf die wöchentlichen Sterberaten zeigt, dass die ersten acht Monate der Pandemie keine nennenswerten Auffälligkeiten aufweisen. Es bleibt dabei: Die Rohdaten des Statistischen Bundesamtes bestätigen zweifelsfrei, dass die ersten acht Monate der Pandemie das historische Minimum im Sterbegeschehen darstellen. (Für die Fachleute sei angemerkt, dass im gleichen Zeitraum die Lebenserwartung die historischen Höchststände erreicht hatte – Grafik 4.)

So konstruierte das Amt aus einem Minimum ein Maximum:

Zur Erinnerung: Die Rohdaten des Statistischen Bundesamtes, die in den jährlichen Sterbetafeln zweifelsfrei dokumentiert sind, zeigen für das Jahr 2020 eindeutig ein Minimum im Sterbegeschehen. Aus diesen »in Stein gemeißelten« Zahlen ein Maximum zu »konstruieren«, ohne die Rohdaten selbst zu verändern, scheint auf den ersten Blick eine unlösbare Aufgabe. Jeder Student würde an einer solchen Herausforderung scheitern. Doch das Statistische Bundesamt hat einen kreativen Weg gefunden - ein Meisterstück gezielter Manipulation. In fünf Schritten zeigt sich, wie diese Täuschung der Öffentlichkeit umgesetzt wurde:

(1) Ignorieren der Sterberaten: Die präzisen, objektiven und leicht verständlichen Sterberaten aus den eigenen Sterbetafeln wurden konsequent ignoriert und verschwiegen. Diese Daten widersprachen dem gewünschten Narrativ und wurden daher gezielt ausgeklammert.

(2) Fokus auf absolute Todeszahlen: Die Aufmerksamkeit wurde stattdessen auf die absolute Zahl der Todesfälle gelenkt. Diese wirkt allein durch ihre schiere Größe dramatisch und emotionalisiert die Diskussion. Ein entscheidender Faktor wurde dabei ignoriert: Die absolute Zahl der Todesfälle steigt aufgrund der demografischen Entwicklung jedes Jahr an. Viele Menschen verstehen diesen Zusammenhang nicht und verbinden die steigenden Zahlen fälschlicherweise mit der vermeintlichen Pandemie.

(3) Einführung der Übersterblichkeit als neue Kennzahl: Erst ab Beginn der „Pandemie“ wurde die Kennzahl "Übersterblichkeit" eingeführt – und dies mit einer fragwürdigen Methode, die systematisch überhöhte Werte lieferte. Diese Kennzahl wurde regelmäßig, oft monatlich oder sogar wöchentlich, berechnet und diente als ständige Grundlage für alarmierende Schlagzeilen.

(4) Intensive Öffentlichkeitsarbeit: Durch eine breit angelegte Kampagne wurden die manipulativen Kennzahlen gezielt in den Fokus gerückt. Pressemitteilungen, Podcasts und öffentliche Auftritte konzentrierten sich fast ausschließlich auf die absoluten Todeszahlen und die Übersterblichkeit. Ziel war es, den Eindruck einer dramatischen Situation in der Öffentlichkeit zu verstärken.

(5) Bekämpfen kritischer Stimmen: Kritiker, die die Schwächen und manipulativen Aspekte dieser Methoden aufdeckten, wurden systematisch diskreditiert. Ihre Glaubwürdigkeit und Kompetenz wurden öffentlich infrage gestellt, um das sorgsam konstruierte Narrativ zu schützen.

Ohne diesen begleitenden Statistik-Betrug wäre das gesamte Pandemie-Theater meiner Meinung nach nicht möglich gewesen. Wer aus einem faktischen Minimum ein scheinbares Maximum "erschafft", handelt betrügerisch. Die Folgen dieses Betruges sind gravierend. Denken wir an die Angst, die in der Bevölkerung geschürt wurde – die Angst, bald sterben zu müssen. Denken wir an Masken, Abstandsregeln, isolierte ältere Menschen, Kinderimpfungen und all die Maßnahmen, die unter anderem auf diese falsche Statistik zurückgehen.

Wollen wir Bürger uns das gefallen lassen?

Wenn wir als Bürger zulassen, dass ein derart offensichtlicher und nachprüfbarer Täuschungsversuch ohne Konsequenzen bleibt, dann gefährdet das nicht nur die Integrität unserer Institutionen – es untergräbt das Fundament unserer Gesellschaft. In der DDR feierte man öffentlich Planerfüllung und Übererfüllung, während die Regale leer blieben. Damals wusste jeder: Statistik war ein Propagandainstrument. Niemand traute den Zahlen, die das Staatsfernsehen verkündete.

Während der Pandemie war es anders. Die Menschen vertrauten den Mitteilungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes und des RKI – blind. Die Enthüllungen durch den "RKI-Leak" haben gezeigt, dass auch das Robert-Koch-Institut nicht der Wissenschaft, sondern den Weisungen des Gesundheitsministers und militärischen Vorgaben folgte. Warum sollte es beim Statistischen Bundesamt anders gewesen sein? Diese Behörde ist dem Innenministerium unterstellt und somit ebenfalls weisungsgebunden.

Die Beweise für Täuschung liegen offen zutage. Es braucht keinen Whistleblower, keine geheimen Enthüllungen: Die Rohdaten des Statistischen Bundesamtes sprechen für sich. Sie sind öffentlich einsehbar – klar und unmissverständlich. Die Daten, die Tabellen, die Veröffentlichungen des Amtes selbst – sie sind die Anklageschrift. Sie zeigen, was wirklich war. Nicht mehr und nicht weniger.

Und wir? Was tun wir? Schweigen wir? Oder fordern wir endlich ein, was unser Recht ist? Wir Bürger dürfen das nicht hinnehmen. Es ist Zeit, unsere Behörden zur Rechenschaft zu ziehen. Diese Institutionen arbeiten nicht für sich – sie arbeiten für uns. Wir finanzieren sie, und wir haben das Recht, Transparenz und Verantwortung einzufordern. Manipulationen wie diese müssen aufgearbeitet werden und dürfen nie wieder geschehen. Die Strukturen, die solche Fehlentwicklungen in unseren Behörden ermöglicht haben, müssen offengelegt werden. Denn eine Demokratie lebt von Vertrauen – und Vertrauen muss verdient werden. Jeden Tag aufs Neue.

.

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MARCEL BARZ, Jahrgang 1975, war Offizier der Bundeswehr und studierte Wirtschafts- und Organisationswissenschaften sowie Wirtschaftsinformatik. Er war Gründer und Geschäftsführer einer Softwarefirma, die sich auf Datenanalyse und Softwareentwicklung spezialisiert hatte. Im August 2021 veröffentlichte Barz den Videovortrag »Die Pandemie in den Rohdaten«, der über eine Million Aufrufe erzielte. Seitdem macht er als "Erbsenzähler" auf Widersprüche in amtlichen Statistiken aufmerksam.

@ eac63075:b4988b48

Since its creation in 2009, Bitcoin has symbolized innovation and resilience. However, from time to time, alarmist narratives arise about emerging technologies that could "break" its security. Among these, quantum computing stands out as one of the most recurrent. But does quantum computing truly threaten Bitcoin? And more importantly, what is the community doing to ensure the protocol remains invulnerable?

The answer, contrary to sensationalist headlines, is reassuring: Bitcoin is secure, and the community is already preparing for a future where quantum computing becomes a practical reality. Let’s dive into this topic to understand why the concerns are exaggerated and how the development of BIP-360 demonstrates that Bitcoin is one step ahead.

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What Is Quantum Computing, and Why Is Bitcoin Not Threatened?

Quantum computing leverages principles of quantum mechanics to perform calculations that, in theory, could exponentially surpass classical computers—and it has nothing to do with what so-called “quantum coaches” teach to scam the uninformed. One of the concerns is that this technology could compromise two key aspects of Bitcoin’s security:

1. Wallets: These use elliptic curve algorithms (ECDSA) to protect private keys. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could deduce a private key from its public key.
2. Mining: This is based on the SHA-256 algorithm, which secures the consensus process. A quantum attack could, in theory, compromise the proof-of-work mechanism.

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Understanding Quantum Computing’s Attack Priorities

While quantum computing is often presented as a threat to Bitcoin, not all parts of the network are equally vulnerable. Theoretical attacks would be prioritized based on two main factors: ease of execution and potential reward. This creates two categories of attacks:

1. Attacks on Wallets

Bitcoin wallets, secured by elliptic curve algorithms, would be the initial targets due to the relative vulnerability of their public keys, especially those already exposed on the blockchain. Two attack scenarios stand out:

• Short-term attacks: These occur during the interval between sending a transaction and its inclusion in a block (approximately 10 minutes). A quantum computer could intercept the exposed public key and derive the corresponding private key to redirect funds by creating a transaction with higher fees.

• Long-term attacks: These focus on old wallets whose public keys are permanently exposed. Wallets associated with Satoshi Nakamoto, for example, are especially vulnerable because they were created before the practice of using hashes to mask public keys.

We can infer a priority order for how such attacks might occur based on urgency and importance.

Bitcoin Quantum Attack: Prioritization Matrix (Urgency vs. Importance)

2. Attacks on Mining

Targeting the SHA-256 algorithm, which secures the mining process, would be the next objective. However, this is far more complex and requires a level of quantum computational power that is currently non-existent and far from realization. A successful attack would allow for the recalculation of all possible hashes to dominate the consensus process and potentially "mine" it instantly.

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Satoshi Nakamoto in 2010 on Quantum Computing and Bitcoin Attacks

Recently, Narcelio asked me about a statement I made on Tubacast:

https://x.com/eddieoz/status/1868371296683511969

If an attack became a reality before Bitcoin was prepared, it would be necessary to define the last block prior to the attack and proceed from there using a new hashing algorithm. The solution would resemble the response to the infamous 2013 bug. It’s a fact that this would cause market panic, and Bitcoin's price would drop significantly, creating a potential opportunity for the well-informed.

Preferably, if developers could anticipate the threat and had time to work on a solution and build consensus before an attack, they would simply decide on a future block for the fork, which would then adopt the new algorithm. It might even rehash previous blocks (reaching consensus on them) to avoid potential reorganization through the re-mining of blocks using the old hash. (I often use the term "shielding" old transactions).

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How Can Users Protect Themselves?

While quantum computing is still far from being a practical threat, some simple measures can already protect users against hypothetical scenarios:

• Avoid using exposed public keys: Ensure funds sent to old wallets are transferred to new ones that use public key hashes. This reduces the risk of long-term attacks.
• Use modern wallets: Opt for wallets compatible with SegWit or Taproot, which implement better security practices.
• Monitor security updates: Stay informed about updates from the Bitcoin community, such as the implementation of BIP-360, which will introduce quantum-resistant addresses.
• Do not reuse addresses: Every transaction should be associated with a new address to minimize the risk of repeated exposure of the same public key.
• Adopt secure backup practices: Create offline backups of private keys and seeds in secure locations, protected from unauthorized access.

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BIP-360 and Bitcoin’s Preparation for the Future

Even though quantum computing is still beyond practical reach, the Bitcoin community is not standing still. A concrete example is BIP-360, a proposal that establishes the technical framework to make wallets resistant to quantum attacks.

BIP-360 addresses three main pillars:

1. Introduction of quantum-resistant addresses: A new address format starting with "BC1R" will be used. These addresses will be compatible with post-quantum algorithms, ensuring that stored funds are protected from future attacks.
2. Compatibility with the current ecosystem: The proposal allows users to transfer funds from old addresses to new ones without requiring drastic changes to the network infrastructure.
3. Flexibility for future updates: BIP-360 does not limit the choice of specific algorithms. Instead, it serves as a foundation for implementing new post-quantum algorithms as technology evolves.

This proposal demonstrates how Bitcoin can adapt to emerging threats without compromising its decentralized structure.

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Post-Quantum Algorithms: The Future of Bitcoin Cryptography

The community is exploring various algorithms to protect Bitcoin from quantum attacks. Among the most discussed are:

• Falcon: A solution combining smaller public keys with compact digital signatures. Although it has been tested in limited scenarios, it still faces scalability and performance challenges.
• Sphincs: Hash-based, this algorithm is renowned for its resilience, but its signatures can be extremely large, making it less efficient for networks like Bitcoin’s blockchain.
• Lamport: Created in 1977, it’s considered one of the earliest post-quantum security solutions. Despite its reliability, its gigantic public keys (16,000 bytes) make it impractical and costly for Bitcoin.

Two technologies show great promise and are well-regarded by the community:

1. Lattice-Based Cryptography: Considered one of the most promising, it uses complex mathematical structures to create systems nearly immune to quantum computing. Its implementation is still in its early stages, but the community is optimistic.
2. Supersingular Elliptic Curve Isogeny: These are very recent digital signature algorithms and require extensive study and testing before being ready for practical market use.

The final choice of algorithm will depend on factors such as efficiency, cost, and integration capability with the current system. Additionally, it is preferable that these algorithms are standardized before implementation, a process that may take up to 10 years.

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Why Quantum Computing Is Far from Being a Threat

The alarmist narrative about quantum computing overlooks the technical and practical challenges that still need to be overcome. Among them:

• Insufficient number of qubits: Current quantum computers have only a few hundred qubits, whereas successful attacks would require millions.
• High error rate: Quantum stability remains a barrier to reliable large-scale operations.
• High costs: Building and operating large-scale quantum computers requires massive investments, limiting their use to scientific or specific applications.

Moreover, even if quantum computers make significant advancements, Bitcoin is already adapting to ensure its infrastructure is prepared to respond.

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Conclusion: Bitcoin’s Secure Future

Despite advancements in quantum computing, the reality is that Bitcoin is far from being threatened. Its security is ensured not only by its robust architecture but also by the community’s constant efforts to anticipate and mitigate challenges.

The implementation of BIP-360 and the pursuit of post-quantum algorithms demonstrate that Bitcoin is not only resilient but also proactive. By adopting practical measures, such as using modern wallets and migrating to quantum-resistant addresses, users can further protect themselves against potential threats.

Bitcoin’s future is not at risk—it is being carefully shaped to withstand any emerging technology, including quantum computing.

@ eac63075:b4988b48

Based on a recent paper that included collaboration from renowned experts such as Lynn Alden, Steve Lee, and Ren Crypto Fish, we discuss in depth how Bitcoin's consensus is built, the main risks, and the complex dynamics of protocol upgrades.

PT-BR version

Podcast https://www.fountain.fm/episode/wbjD6ntQuvX5u2G5BccC

Presentation https://gamma.app/docs/Analyzing-Bitcoin-Consensus-Risks-in-Protocol-Upgrades-p66axxjwaa37ksn

1. Introduction to Consensus in Bitcoin

Consensus in Bitcoin is the foundation that keeps the network secure and functional, allowing users worldwide to perform transactions in a decentralized manner without the need for intermediaries. Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin is often described as an "immutable" system designed to resist changes, and it is precisely this resistance that ensures its security and stability.

The central idea behind consensus in Bitcoin is to create a set of acceptance rules for blocks and transactions, ensuring that all network participants agree on the transaction history. This prevents "double-spending," where the same bitcoin could be used in two simultaneous transactions, something that would compromise trust in the network.

Evolution of Consensus in Bitcoin

Over the years, consensus in Bitcoin has undergone several adaptations, and the way participants agree on changes remains a delicate process. Unlike traditional systems, where changes can be imposed from the top down, Bitcoin operates in a decentralized model where any significant change needs the support of various groups of stakeholders, including miners, developers, users, and large node operators.

Moreover, the update process is extremely cautious, as hasty changes can compromise the network's security. As a result, the philosophy of "don't fix what isn't broken" prevails, with improvements happening incrementally and only after broad consensus among those involved. This model can make progress seem slow but ensures that Bitcoin remains faithful to the principles of security and decentralization.

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2. Technical Components of Consensus

Bitcoin's consensus is supported by a set of technical rules that determine what is considered a valid transaction and a valid block on the network. These technical aspects ensure that all nodes—the computers that participate in the Bitcoin network—agree on the current state of the blockchain. Below are the main technical components that form the basis of the consensus.

Validation of Blocks and Transactions

The validation of blocks and transactions is the central point of consensus in Bitcoin. A block is only considered valid if it meets certain criteria, such as maximum size, transaction structure, and the solving of the "Proof of Work" problem. The proof of work, required for a block to be included in the blockchain, is a computational process that ensures the block contains significant computational effort—protecting the network against manipulation attempts.

Transactions, in turn, need to follow specific input and output rules. Each transaction includes cryptographic signatures that prove the ownership of the bitcoins sent, as well as validation scripts that verify if the transaction conditions are met. This validation system is essential for network nodes to autonomously confirm that each transaction follows the rules.

Chain Selection

Another fundamental technical issue for Bitcoin's consensus is chain selection, which becomes especially important in cases where multiple versions of the blockchain coexist, such as after a network split (fork). To decide which chain is the "true" one and should be followed, the network adopts the criterion of the highest accumulated proof of work. In other words, the chain with the highest number of valid blocks, built with the greatest computational effort, is chosen by the network as the official one.

This criterion avoids permanent splits because it encourages all nodes to follow the same main chain, reinforcing consensus.

Soft Forks vs. Hard Forks

In the consensus process, protocol changes can happen in two ways: through soft forks or hard forks. These variations affect not only the protocol update but also the implications for network users:

• Soft Forks: These are changes that are backward compatible. Only nodes that adopt the new update will follow the new rules, but old nodes will still recognize the blocks produced with these rules as valid. This compatibility makes soft forks a safer option for updates, as it minimizes the risk of network division.

• Hard Forks: These are updates that are not backward compatible, requiring all nodes to update to the new version or risk being separated from the main chain. Hard forks can result in the creation of a new coin, as occurred with the split between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash in 2017. While hard forks allow for deeper changes, they also bring significant risks of network fragmentation.

These technical components form the base of Bitcoin's security and resilience, allowing the system to remain functional and immutable without losing the necessary flexibility to evolve over time.

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3. Stakeholders in Bitcoin's Consensus

Consensus in Bitcoin is not decided centrally. On the contrary, it depends on the interaction between different groups of stakeholders, each with their motivations, interests, and levels of influence. These groups play fundamental roles in how changes are implemented or rejected on the network. Below, we explore the six main stakeholders in Bitcoin's consensus.

1. Economic Nodes

Economic nodes, usually operated by exchanges, custody providers, and large companies that accept Bitcoin, exert significant influence over consensus. Because they handle large volumes of transactions and act as a connection point between the Bitcoin ecosystem and the traditional financial system, these nodes have the power to validate or reject blocks and to define which version of the software to follow in case of a fork.

Their influence is proportional to the volume of transactions they handle, and they can directly affect which chain will be seen as the main one. Their incentive is to maintain the network's stability and security to preserve its functionality and meet regulatory requirements.

2. Investors

Investors, including large institutional funds and individual Bitcoin holders, influence consensus indirectly through their impact on the asset's price. Their buying and selling actions can affect Bitcoin's value, which in turn influences the motivation of miners and other stakeholders to continue investing in the network's security and development.

Some institutional investors have agreements with custodians that may limit their ability to act in network split situations. Thus, the impact of each investor on consensus can vary based on their ownership structure and how quickly they can react to a network change.

3. Media Influencers

Media influencers, including journalists, analysts, and popular personalities on social media, have a powerful role in shaping public opinion about Bitcoin and possible updates. These influencers can help educate the public, promote debates, and bring transparency to the consensus process.

On the other hand, the impact of influencers can be double-edged: while they can clarify complex topics, they can also distort perceptions by amplifying or minimizing change proposals. This makes them a force both of support and resistance to consensus.

4. Miners

Miners are responsible for validating transactions and including blocks in the blockchain. Through computational power (hashrate), they also exert significant influence over consensus decisions. In update processes, miners often signal their support for a proposal, indicating that the new version is safe to use. However, this signaling is not always definitive, and miners can change their position if they deem it necessary.

Their incentive is to maximize returns from block rewards and transaction fees, as well as to maintain the value of investments in their specialized equipment, which are only profitable if the network remains stable.

5. Protocol Developers

Protocol developers, often called "Core Developers," are responsible for writing and maintaining Bitcoin's code. Although they do not have direct power over consensus, they possess an informal veto power since they decide which changes are included in the main client (Bitcoin Core). This group also serves as an important source of technical knowledge, helping guide decisions and inform other stakeholders.

Their incentive lies in the continuous improvement of the network, ensuring security and decentralization. Many developers are funded by grants and sponsorships, but their motivations generally include a strong ideological commitment to Bitcoin's principles.

6. Users and Application Developers

This group includes people who use Bitcoin in their daily transactions and developers who build solutions based on the network, such as wallets, exchanges, and payment platforms. Although their power in consensus is less than that of miners or economic nodes, they play an important role because they are responsible for popularizing Bitcoin's use and expanding the ecosystem.

If application developers decide not to adopt an update, this can affect compatibility and widespread acceptance. Thus, they indirectly influence consensus by deciding which version of the protocol to follow in their applications.

These stakeholders are vital to the consensus process, and each group exerts influence according to their involvement, incentives, and ability to act in situations of change. Understanding the role of each makes it clearer how consensus is formed and why it is so difficult to make significant changes to Bitcoin.

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4. Mechanisms for Activating Updates in Bitcoin

For Bitcoin to evolve without compromising security and consensus, different mechanisms for activating updates have been developed over the years. These mechanisms help coordinate changes among network nodes to minimize the risk of fragmentation and ensure that updates are implemented in an orderly manner. Here, we explore some of the main methods used in Bitcoin, their advantages and disadvantages, as well as historical examples of significant updates.

Flag Day

The Flag Day mechanism is one of the simplest forms of activating changes. In it, a specific date or block is determined as the activation moment, and all nodes must be updated by that point. This method does not involve prior signaling; participants simply need to update to the new software version by the established day or block.

• Advantages: Simplicity and predictability are the main benefits of Flag Day, as everyone knows the exact activation date.

• Disadvantages: Inflexibility can be a problem because there is no way to adjust the schedule if a significant part of the network has not updated. This can result in network splits if a significant number of nodes are not ready for the update.

An example of Flag Day was the Pay to Script Hash (P2SH) update in 2012, which required all nodes to adopt the change to avoid compatibility issues.

BIP34 and BIP9

BIP34 introduced a more dynamic process, in which miners increase the version number in block headers to signal the update. When a predetermined percentage of the last blocks is mined with this new version, the update is automatically activated. This model later evolved with BIP9, which allowed multiple updates to be signaled simultaneously through "version bits," each corresponding to a specific change.

• Advantages: Allows the network to activate updates gradually, giving more time for participants to adapt.

• Disadvantages: These methods rely heavily on miner support, which means that if a sufficient number of miners do not signal the update, it can be delayed or not implemented.

BIP9 was used in the activation of SegWit (BIP141) but faced challenges because some miners did not signal their intent to activate, leading to the development of new mechanisms.

User Activated Soft Forks (UASF) and User Resisted Soft Forks (URSF)

To increase the decision-making power of ordinary users, the concept of User Activated Soft Fork (UASF) was introduced, allowing node operators, not just miners, to determine consensus for a change. In this model, nodes set a date to start rejecting blocks that are not in compliance with the new update, forcing miners to adapt or risk having their blocks rejected by the network.

URSF, in turn, is a model where nodes reject blocks that attempt to adopt a specific update, functioning as resistance against proposed changes.

• Advantages: UASF returns decision-making power to node operators, ensuring that changes do not depend solely on miners.

• Disadvantages: Both UASF and URSF can generate network splits, especially in cases of strong opposition among different stakeholders.

An example of UASF was the activation of SegWit in 2017, where users supported activation independently of miner signaling, which ended up forcing its adoption.

BIP8 (LOT=True)

BIP8 is an evolution of BIP9, designed to prevent miners from indefinitely blocking a change desired by the majority of users and developers. BIP8 allows setting a parameter called "lockinontimeout" (LOT) as true, which means that if the update has not been fully signaled by a certain point, it is automatically activated.

• Advantages: Ensures that changes with broad support among users are not blocked by miners who wish to maintain the status quo.

• Disadvantages: Can lead to network splits if miners or other important stakeholders do not support the update.

Although BIP8 with LOT=True has not yet been used in Bitcoin, it is a proposal that can be applied in future updates if necessary.

These activation mechanisms have been essential for Bitcoin's development, allowing updates that keep the network secure and functional. Each method brings its own advantages and challenges, but all share the goal of preserving consensus and network cohesion.

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5. Risks and Considerations in Consensus Updates

Consensus updates in Bitcoin are complex processes that involve not only technical aspects but also political, economic, and social considerations. Due to the network's decentralized nature, each change brings with it a set of risks that need to be carefully assessed. Below, we explore some of the main challenges and future scenarios, as well as the possible impacts on stakeholders.

Network Fragility with Alternative Implementations

One of the main risks associated with consensus updates is the possibility of network fragmentation when there are alternative software implementations. If an update is implemented by a significant group of nodes but rejected by others, a network split (fork) can occur. This creates two competing chains, each with a different version of the transaction history, leading to unpredictable consequences for users and investors.

Such fragmentation weakens Bitcoin because, by dividing hashing power (computing) and coin value, it reduces network security and investor confidence. A notable example of this risk was the fork that gave rise to Bitcoin Cash in 2017 when disagreements over block size resulted in a new chain and a new asset.

Chain Splits and Impact on Stakeholders

Chain splits are a significant risk in update processes, especially in hard forks. During a hard fork, the network is split into two separate chains, each with its own set of rules. This results in the creation of a new coin and leaves users with duplicated assets on both chains. While this may seem advantageous, in the long run, these splits weaken the network and create uncertainties for investors.

Each group of stakeholders reacts differently to a chain split:

• Institutional Investors and ETFs: Face regulatory and compliance challenges because many of these assets are managed under strict regulations. The creation of a new coin requires decisions to be made quickly to avoid potential losses, which may be hampered by regulatory constraints.

• Miners: May be incentivized to shift their computing power to the chain that offers higher profitability, which can weaken one of the networks.

• Economic Nodes: Such as major exchanges and custody providers, have to quickly choose which chain to support, influencing the perceived value of each network.

Such divisions can generate uncertainties and loss of value, especially for institutional investors and those who use Bitcoin as a store of value.

Regulatory Impacts and Institutional Investors

With the growing presence of institutional investors in Bitcoin, consensus changes face new compliance challenges. Bitcoin ETFs, for example, are required to follow strict rules about which assets they can include and how chain split events should be handled. The creation of a new asset or migration to a new chain can complicate these processes, creating pressure for large financial players to quickly choose a chain, affecting the stability of consensus.

Moreover, decisions regarding forks can influence the Bitcoin futures and derivatives market, affecting perception and adoption by new investors. Therefore, the need to avoid splits and maintain cohesion is crucial to attract and preserve the confidence of these investors.

Security Considerations in Soft Forks and Hard Forks

While soft forks are generally preferred in Bitcoin for their backward compatibility, they are not without risks. Soft forks can create different classes of nodes on the network (updated and non-updated), which increases operational complexity and can ultimately weaken consensus cohesion. In a network scenario with fragmentation of node classes, Bitcoin's security can be affected, as some nodes may lose part of the visibility over updated transactions or rules.

In hard forks, the security risk is even more evident because all nodes need to adopt the new update to avoid network division. Experience shows that abrupt changes can create temporary vulnerabilities, in which malicious agents try to exploit the transition to attack the network.

Bounty Claim Risks and Attack Scenarios

Another risk in consensus updates are so-called "bounty claims"—accumulated rewards that can be obtained if an attacker manages to split or deceive a part of the network. In a conflict scenario, a group of miners or nodes could be incentivized to support a new update or create an alternative version of the software to benefit from these rewards.

These risks require stakeholders to carefully assess each update and the potential vulnerabilities it may introduce. The possibility of "bounty claims" adds a layer of complexity to consensus because each interest group may see a financial opportunity in a change that, in the long term, may harm network stability.

The risks discussed above show the complexity of consensus in Bitcoin and the importance of approaching it gradually and deliberately. Updates need to consider not only technical aspects but also economic and social implications, in order to preserve Bitcoin's integrity and maintain trust among stakeholders.

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6. Recommendations for the Consensus Process in Bitcoin

To ensure that protocol changes in Bitcoin are implemented safely and with broad support, it is essential that all stakeholders adopt a careful and coordinated approach. Here are strategic recommendations for evaluating, supporting, or rejecting consensus updates, considering the risks and challenges discussed earlier, along with best practices for successful implementation.

1. Careful Evaluation of Proposal Maturity

Stakeholders should rigorously assess the maturity level of a proposal before supporting its implementation. Updates that are still experimental or lack a robust technical foundation can expose the network to unnecessary risks. Ideally, change proposals should go through an extensive testing phase, have security audits, and receive review and feedback from various developers and experts.

2. Extensive Testing in Secure and Compatible Networks

Before an update is activated on the mainnet, it is essential to test it on networks like testnet and signet, and whenever possible, on other compatible networks that offer a safe and controlled environment to identify potential issues. Testing on networks like Litecoin was fundamental for the safe launch of innovations like SegWit and the Lightning Network, allowing functionalities to be validated on a lower-impact network before being implemented on Bitcoin.

The Liquid Network, developed by Blockstream, also plays an important role as an experimental network for new proposals, such as OP_CAT. By adopting these testing environments, stakeholders can mitigate risks and ensure that the update is reliable and secure before being adopted by the main network.

3. Importance of Stakeholder Engagement

The success of a consensus update strongly depends on the active participation of all stakeholders. This includes economic nodes, miners, protocol developers, investors, and end users. Lack of participation can lead to inadequate decisions or even future network splits, which would compromise Bitcoin's security and stability.

4. Key Questions for Evaluating Consensus Proposals

To assist in decision-making, each group of stakeholders should consider some key questions before supporting a consensus change:

• Does the proposal offer tangible benefits for Bitcoin's security, scalability, or usability?
• Does it maintain backward compatibility or introduce the risk of network split?
• Are the implementation requirements clear and feasible for each group involved?
• Are there clear and aligned incentives for all stakeholder groups to accept the change?

5. Coordination and Timing in Implementations

Timing is crucial. Updates with short activation windows can force a split because not all nodes and miners can update simultaneously. Changes should be planned with ample deadlines to allow all stakeholders to adjust their systems, avoiding surprises that could lead to fragmentation.

Mechanisms like soft forks are generally preferable to hard forks because they allow a smoother transition. Opting for backward-compatible updates when possible facilitates the process and ensures that nodes and miners can adapt without pressure.

6. Continuous Monitoring and Re-evaluation

After an update, it's essential to monitor the network to identify problems or side effects. This continuous process helps ensure cohesion and trust among all participants, keeping Bitcoin as a secure and robust network.

These recommendations, including the use of secure networks for extensive testing, promote a collaborative and secure environment for Bitcoin's consensus process. By adopting a deliberate and strategic approach, stakeholders can preserve Bitcoin's value as a decentralized and censorship-resistant network.

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7. Conclusion

Consensus in Bitcoin is more than a set of rules; it's the foundation that sustains the network as a decentralized, secure, and reliable system. Unlike centralized systems, where decisions can be made quickly, Bitcoin requires a much more deliberate and cooperative approach, where the interests of miners, economic nodes, developers, investors, and users must be considered and harmonized. This governance model may seem slow, but it is fundamental to preserving the resilience and trust that make Bitcoin a global store of value and censorship-resistant.

Consensus updates in Bitcoin must balance the need for innovation with the preservation of the network's core principles. The development process of a proposal needs to be detailed and rigorous, going through several testing stages, such as in testnet, signet, and compatible networks like Litecoin and Liquid Network. These networks offer safe environments for proposals to be analyzed and improved before being launched on the main network.

Each proposed change must be carefully evaluated regarding its maturity, impact, backward compatibility, and support among stakeholders. The recommended key questions and appropriate timing are critical to ensure that an update is adopted without compromising network cohesion. It's also essential that the implementation process is continuously monitored and re-evaluated, allowing adjustments as necessary and minimizing the risk of instability.

By following these guidelines, Bitcoin's stakeholders can ensure that the network continues to evolve safely and robustly, maintaining user trust and further solidifying its role as one of the most resilient and innovative digital assets in the world. Ultimately, consensus in Bitcoin is not just a technical issue but a reflection of its community and the values it represents: security, decentralization, and resilience.

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8. Links

Whitepaper: https://github.com/bitcoin-cap/bcap

Youtube (pt-br): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rARycAibl9o&list=PL-qnhF0qlSPkfhorqsREuIu4UTbF0h4zb

@ eac63075:b4988b48

The future of physical money is at stake, and the discussion about DREX, the new digital currency planned by the Central Bank of Brazil, is gaining momentum. In a candid and intense conversation, Federal Deputy Julia Zanatta (PL/SC) discussed the challenges and risks of this digital transition, also addressing her Bill No. 3,341/2024, which aims to prevent the extinction of physical currency. This bill emerges as a direct response to legislative initiatives seeking to replace physical money with digital alternatives, limiting citizens' options and potentially compromising individual freedom. Let's delve into the main points of this conversation.

https://www.fountain.fm/episode/i5YGJ9Ors3PkqAIMvNQ0

(PT-BR version here)

What is a CBDC?

Before discussing the specifics of DREX, it’s important to understand what a CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) is. CBDCs are digital currencies issued by central banks, similar to a digital version of physical money. Unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which operate in a decentralized manner, CBDCs are centralized and regulated by the government. In other words, they are digital currencies created and controlled by the Central Bank, intended to replace physical currency.

A prominent feature of CBDCs is their programmability. This means that the government can theoretically set rules about how, where, and for what this currency can be used. This aspect enables a level of control over citizens' finances that is impossible with physical money. By programming the currency, the government could limit transactions by setting geographical or usage restrictions. In practice, money within a CBDC could be restricted to specific spending or authorized for use in a defined geographical area.

In countries like China, where citizen actions and attitudes are also monitored, a person considered to have a "low score" due to a moral or ideological violation may have their transactions limited to essential purchases, restricting their digital currency use to non-essential activities. This financial control is strengthened because, unlike physical money, digital currency cannot be exchanged anonymously.

Practical Example: The Case of DREX During the Pandemic

To illustrate how DREX could be used, an example was given by Eric Altafim, director of Banco Itaú. He suggested that, if DREX had existed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the government could have restricted the currency’s use to a 5-kilometer radius around a person’s residence, limiting their economic mobility. Another proposed use by the executive related to the Bolsa Família welfare program: the government could set up programming that only allows this benefit to be used exclusively for food purchases. Although these examples are presented as control measures for safety or organization, they demonstrate how much a CBDC could restrict citizens' freedom of choice.

To illustrate the potential for state control through a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), such as DREX, it is helpful to look at the example of China. In China, the implementation of a CBDC coincides with the country’s Social Credit System, a governmental surveillance tool that assesses citizens' and companies' behavior. Together, these technologies allow the Chinese government to monitor, reward, and, above all, punish behavior deemed inappropriate or threatening to the government.

How Does China's Social Credit System Work?

Implemented in 2014, China's Social Credit System assigns every citizen and company a "score" based on various factors, including financial behavior, criminal record, social interactions, and even online activities. This score determines the benefits or penalties each individual receives and can affect everything from public transport access to obtaining loans and enrolling in elite schools for their children. Citizens with low scores may face various sanctions, including travel restrictions, fines, and difficulty in securing loans.

With the adoption of the CBDC — or “digital yuan” — the Chinese government now has a new tool to closely monitor citizens' financial transactions, facilitating the application of Social Credit System penalties. China’s CBDC is a programmable digital currency, which means that the government can restrict how, when, and where the money can be spent. Through this level of control, digital currency becomes a powerful mechanism for influencing citizens' behavior.

Imagine, for instance, a citizen who repeatedly posts critical remarks about the government on social media or participates in protests. If the Social Credit System assigns this citizen a low score, the Chinese government could, through the CBDC, restrict their money usage in certain areas or sectors. For example, they could be prevented from buying tickets to travel to other regions, prohibited from purchasing certain consumer goods, or even restricted to making transactions only at stores near their home.

Another example of how the government can use the CBDC to enforce the Social Credit System is by monitoring purchases of products such as alcohol or luxury items. If a citizen uses the CBDC to spend more than the government deems reasonable on such products, this could negatively impact their social score, resulting in additional penalties such as future purchase restrictions or a lowered rating that impacts their personal and professional lives.

In China, this kind of control has already been demonstrated in several cases. Citizens added to Social Credit System “blacklists” have seen their spending and investment capacity severely limited. The combination of digital currency and social scores thus creates a sophisticated and invasive surveillance system, through which the Chinese government controls important aspects of citizens’ financial lives and individual freedoms.

Deputy Julia Zanatta views these examples with great concern. She argues that if the state has full control over digital money, citizens will be exposed to a level of economic control and surveillance never seen before. In a democracy, this control poses a risk, but in an authoritarian regime, it could be used as a powerful tool of repression.

DREX and Bill No. 3,341/2024

Julia Zanatta became aware of a bill by a Workers' Party (PT) deputy (Bill 4068/2020 by Deputy Reginaldo Lopes - PT/MG) that proposes the extinction of physical money within five years, aiming for a complete transition to DREX, the digital currency developed by the Central Bank of Brazil. Concerned about the impact of this measure, Julia drafted her bill, PL No. 3,341/2024, which prohibits the elimination of physical money, ensuring citizens the right to choose physical currency.

“The more I read about DREX, the less I want its implementation,” says the deputy. DREX is a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), similar to other state digital currencies worldwide, but which, according to Julia, carries extreme control risks. She points out that with DREX, the State could closely monitor each citizen’s transactions, eliminating anonymity and potentially restricting freedom of choice. This control would lie in the hands of the Central Bank, which could, in a crisis or government change, “freeze balances or even delete funds directly from user accounts.”

Risks and Individual Freedom

Julia raises concerns about potential abuses of power that complete digitalization could allow. In a democracy, state control over personal finances raises serious questions, and EddieOz warns of an even more problematic future. “Today we are in a democracy, but tomorrow, with a government transition, we don't know if this kind of power will be used properly or abused,” he states. In other words, DREX gives the State the ability to restrict or condition the use of money, opening the door to unprecedented financial surveillance.

EddieOz cites Nigeria as an example, where a CBDC was implemented, and the government imposed severe restrictions on the use of physical money to encourage the use of digital currency, leading to protests and clashes in the country. In practice, the poorest and unbanked — those without regular access to banking services — were harshly affected, as without physical money, many cannot conduct basic transactions. Julia highlights that in Brazil, this situation would be even more severe, given the large number of unbanked individuals and the extent of rural areas where access to technology is limited.

The Relationship Between DREX and Pix

The digital transition has already begun with Pix, which revolutionized instant transfers and payments in Brazil. However, Julia points out that Pix, though popular, is a citizen’s choice, while DREX tends to eliminate that choice. The deputy expresses concern about new rules suggested for Pix, such as daily transaction limits of a thousand reais, justified as anti-fraud measures but which, in her view, represent additional control and a profit opportunity for banks. “How many more rules will banks create to profit from us?” asks Julia, noting that DREX could further enhance control over personal finances.

International Precedents and Resistance to CBDC

The deputy also cites examples from other countries resisting the idea of a centralized digital currency. In the United States, states like New Hampshire have passed laws to prevent the advance of CBDCs, and leaders such as Donald Trump have opposed creating a national digital currency. Trump, addressing the topic, uses a justification similar to Julia’s: in a digitalized system, “with one click, your money could disappear.” She agrees with the warning, emphasizing the control risk that a CBDC represents, especially for countries with disadvantaged populations.

Besides the United States, Canada, Colombia, and Australia have also suspended studies on digital currencies, citing the need for further discussions on population impacts. However, in Brazil, the debate on DREX is still limited, with few parliamentarians and political leaders openly discussing the topic. According to Julia, only she and one or two deputies are truly trying to bring this discussion to the Chamber, making DREX’s advance even more concerning.

Bill No. 3,341/2024 and Popular Pressure

For Julia, her bill is a first step. Although she acknowledges that ideally, it would prevent DREX's implementation entirely, PL 3341/2024 is a measure to ensure citizens' choice to use physical money, preserving a form of individual freedom. “If the future means control, I prefer to live in the past,” Julia asserts, reinforcing that the fight for freedom is at the heart of her bill.

However, the deputy emphasizes that none of this will be possible without popular mobilization. According to her, popular pressure is crucial for other deputies to take notice and support PL 3341. “I am only one deputy, and we need the public’s support to raise the project’s visibility,” she explains, encouraging the public to press other parliamentarians and ask them to “pay attention to PL 3341 and the project that prohibits the end of physical money.” The deputy believes that with a strong awareness and pressure movement, it is possible to advance the debate and ensure Brazilians’ financial freedom.

What’s at Stake?

Julia Zanatta leaves no doubt: DREX represents a profound shift in how money will be used and controlled in Brazil. More than a simple modernization of the financial system, the Central Bank’s CBDC sets precedents for an unprecedented level of citizen surveillance and control in the country. For the deputy, this transition needs to be debated broadly and transparently, and it’s up to the Brazilian people to defend their rights and demand that the National Congress discuss these changes responsibly.

The deputy also emphasizes that, regardless of political or partisan views, this issue affects all Brazilians. “This agenda is something that will affect everyone. We need to be united to ensure people understand the gravity of what could happen.” Julia believes that by sharing information and generating open debate, it is possible to prevent Brazil from following the path of countries that have already implemented a digital currency in an authoritarian way.

A Call to Action

The future of physical money in Brazil is at risk. For those who share Deputy Julia Zanatta’s concerns, the time to act is now. Mobilize, get informed, and press your representatives. PL 3341/2024 is an opportunity to ensure that Brazilian citizens have a choice in how to use their money, without excessive state interference or surveillance.

In the end, as the deputy puts it, the central issue is freedom. “My fear is that this project will pass, and people won’t even understand what is happening.” Therefore, may every citizen at least have the chance to understand what’s at stake and make their voice heard in defense of a Brazil where individual freedom and privacy are respected values.

@ eac63075:b4988b48

Imagine sending a private message to a friend, only to learn that authorities could be scanning its contents without your knowledge. This isn't a scene from a dystopian novel but a potential reality under the European Union's proposed "Chat Control" measures. Aimed at combating serious crimes like child exploitation and terrorism, these proposals could significantly impact the privacy of everyday internet users. As encrypted messaging services become the norm for personal and professional communication, understanding Chat Control is essential. This article delves into what Chat Control entails, why it's being considered, and how it could affect your right to private communication.

https://www.fountain.fm/episode/coOFsst7r7mO1EP1kSzV

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0IZ6kMExfxFm4FHg5DAWT8?si=e139033865e045de

Sections:

• Introduction
• What Is Chat Control?
• Why Is the EU Pushing for Chat Control?
• The Privacy Concerns and Risks
• The Technical Debate: Encryption and Backdoors
• Global Reactions and the Debate in Europe
• Possible Consequences for Messaging Services
• What Happens Next? The Future of Chat Control
• Conclusion

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What Is Chat Control?

"Chat Control" refers to a set of proposed measures by the European Union aimed at monitoring and scanning private communications on messaging platforms. The primary goal is to detect and prevent the spread of illegal content, such as child sexual abuse material (CSAM) and to combat terrorism. While the intention is to enhance security and protect vulnerable populations, these proposals have raised significant privacy concerns.

At its core, Chat Control would require messaging services to implement automated scanning technologies that can analyze the content of messages—even those that are end-to-end encrypted. This means that the private messages you send to friends, family, or colleagues could be subject to inspection by algorithms designed to detect prohibited content.

Origins of the Proposal

The initiative for Chat Control emerged from the EU's desire to strengthen its digital security infrastructure. High-profile cases of online abuse and the use of encrypted platforms by criminal organizations have prompted lawmakers to consider more invasive surveillance tactics. The European Commission has been exploring legislation that would make it mandatory for service providers to monitor communications on their platforms.

How Messaging Services Work

Most modern messaging apps, like Signal, Session, SimpleX, Veilid, Protonmail and Tutanota (among others), use end-to-end encryption (E2EE). This encryption ensures that only the sender and the recipient can read the messages being exchanged. Not even the service providers can access the content. This level of security is crucial for maintaining privacy in digital communications, protecting users from hackers, identity thieves, and other malicious actors.

Key Elements of Chat Control

• Automated Content Scanning: Service providers would use algorithms to scan messages for illegal content.
• Circumvention of Encryption: To scan encrypted messages, providers might need to alter their encryption methods, potentially weakening security.
• Mandatory Reporting: If illegal content is detected, providers would be required to report it to authorities.
• Broad Applicability: The measures could apply to all messaging services operating within the EU, affecting both European companies and international platforms.

Why It Matters

Understanding Chat Control is essential because it represents a significant shift in how digital privacy is handled. While combating illegal activities online is crucial, the methods proposed could set a precedent for mass surveillance and the erosion of privacy rights. Everyday users who rely on encrypted messaging for personal and professional communication might find their conversations are no longer as private as they once thought.

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Why Is the EU Pushing for Chat Control?

The European Union's push for Chat Control stems from a pressing concern to protect its citizens, particularly children, from online exploitation and criminal activities. With the digital landscape becoming increasingly integral to daily life, the EU aims to strengthen its ability to combat serious crimes facilitated through online platforms.

Protecting Children and Preventing Crime

One of the primary motivations behind Chat Control is the prevention of child sexual abuse material (CSAM) circulating on the internet. Law enforcement agencies have reported a significant increase in the sharing of illegal content through private messaging services. By implementing Chat Control, the EU believes it can more effectively identify and stop perpetrators, rescue victims, and deter future crimes.

Terrorism is another critical concern. Encrypted messaging apps can be used by terrorist groups to plan and coordinate attacks without detection. The EU argues that accessing these communications could be vital in preventing such threats and ensuring public safety.

Legal Context and Legislative Drivers

The push for Chat Control is rooted in several legislative initiatives:

• ePrivacy Directive: This directive regulates the processing of personal data and the protection of privacy in electronic communications. The EU is considering amendments that would allow for the scanning of private messages under specific circumstances.

• Temporary Derogation: In 2021, the EU adopted a temporary regulation permitting voluntary detection of CSAM by communication services. The current proposals aim to make such measures mandatory and more comprehensive.

• Regulation Proposals: The European Commission has proposed regulations that would require service providers to detect, report, and remove illegal content proactively. This would include the use of technologies to scan private communications.

Balancing Security and Privacy

EU officials argue that the proposed measures are a necessary response to evolving digital threats. They emphasize the importance of staying ahead of criminals who exploit technology to harm others. By implementing Chat Control, they believe law enforcement can be more effective without entirely dismantling privacy protections.

However, the EU also acknowledges the need to balance security with fundamental rights. The proposals include provisions intended to limit the scope of surveillance, such as:

• Targeted Scanning: Focusing on specific threats rather than broad, indiscriminate monitoring.

• Judicial Oversight: Requiring court orders or oversight for accessing private communications.

• Data Protection Safeguards: Implementing measures to ensure that data collected is handled securely and deleted when no longer needed.

The Urgency Behind the Push

High-profile cases of online abuse and terrorism have heightened the sense of urgency among EU policymakers. Reports of increasing online grooming and the widespread distribution of illegal content have prompted calls for immediate action. The EU posits that without measures like Chat Control, these problems will continue to escalate unchecked.

Criticism and Controversy

Despite the stated intentions, the push for Chat Control has been met with significant criticism. Opponents argue that the measures could be ineffective against savvy criminals who can find alternative ways to communicate. There is also concern that such surveillance could be misused or extended beyond its original purpose.

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The Privacy Concerns and Risks

While the intentions behind Chat Control focus on enhancing security and protecting vulnerable groups, the proposed measures raise significant privacy concerns. Critics argue that implementing such surveillance could infringe on fundamental rights and set a dangerous precedent for mass monitoring of private communications.

Infringement on Privacy Rights

At the heart of the debate is the right to privacy. By scanning private messages, even with automated tools, the confidentiality of personal communications is compromised. Users may no longer feel secure sharing sensitive information, fearing that their messages could be intercepted or misinterpreted by algorithms.

Erosion of End-to-End Encryption

End-to-end encryption (E2EE) is a cornerstone of digital security, ensuring that only the sender and recipient can read the messages exchanged. Chat Control could necessitate the introduction of "backdoors" or weaken encryption protocols, making it easier for unauthorized parties to access private data. This not only affects individual privacy but also exposes communications to potential cyber threats.

Concerns from Privacy Advocates

Organizations like Signal and Tutanota, which offer encrypted messaging services, have voiced strong opposition to Chat Control. They warn that undermining encryption could have far-reaching consequences:

• Security Risks: Weakening encryption makes systems more vulnerable to hacking, espionage, and cybercrime.
• Global Implications: Changes in EU regulations could influence policies worldwide, leading to a broader erosion of digital privacy.
• Ineffectiveness Against Crime: Determined criminals might resort to other, less detectable means of communication, rendering the measures ineffective while still compromising the privacy of law-abiding citizens.

Potential for Government Overreach

There is a fear that Chat Control could lead to increased surveillance beyond its original scope. Once the infrastructure for scanning private messages is in place, it could be repurposed or expanded to monitor other types of content, stifling free expression and dissent.

Real-World Implications for Users

• False Positives: Automated scanning technologies are not infallible and could mistakenly flag innocent content, leading to unwarranted scrutiny or legal consequences for users.
• Chilling Effect: Knowing that messages could be monitored might discourage people from expressing themselves freely, impacting personal relationships and societal discourse.
• Data Misuse: Collected data could be vulnerable to leaks or misuse, compromising personal and sensitive information.

Legal and Ethical Concerns

Privacy advocates also highlight potential conflicts with existing laws and ethical standards:

• Violation of Fundamental Rights: The European Convention on Human Rights and other international agreements protect the right to privacy and freedom of expression.
• Questionable Effectiveness: The ethical justification for such invasive measures is challenged if they do not significantly improve safety or if they disproportionately impact innocent users.

Opposition from Member States and Organizations

Countries like Germany and organizations such as the European Digital Rights (EDRi) have expressed opposition to Chat Control. They emphasize the need to protect digital privacy and caution against hasty legislation that could have unintended consequences.

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The Technical Debate: Encryption and Backdoors

The discussion around Chat Control inevitably leads to a complex technical debate centered on encryption and the potential introduction of backdoors into secure communication systems. Understanding these concepts is crucial to grasping the full implications of the proposed measures.

What Is End-to-End Encryption (E2EE)?

End-to-end encryption is a method of secure communication that prevents third parties from accessing data while it's transferred from one end system to another. In simpler terms, only the sender and the recipient can read the messages. Even the service providers operating the messaging platforms cannot decrypt the content.

• Security Assurance: E2EE ensures that sensitive information—be it personal messages, financial details, or confidential business communications—remains private.
• Widespread Use: Popular messaging apps like Signal, Session, SimpleX, Veilid, Protonmail and Tutanota (among others) rely on E2EE to protect user data.

How Chat Control Affects Encryption

Implementing Chat Control as proposed would require messaging services to scan the content of messages for illegal material. To do this on encrypted platforms, providers might have to:

• Introduce Backdoors: Create a means for third parties (including the service provider or authorities) to access encrypted messages.
• Client-Side Scanning: Install software on users' devices that scans messages before they are encrypted and sent, effectively bypassing E2EE.

The Risks of Weakening Encryption

1. Compromised Security for All Users

Introducing backdoors or client-side scanning tools can create vulnerabilities:

• Exploitable Gaps: If a backdoor exists, malicious actors might find and exploit it, leading to data breaches.
• Universal Impact: Weakening encryption doesn't just affect targeted individuals; it potentially exposes all users to increased risk.

2. Undermining Trust in Digital Services

• User Confidence: Knowing that private communications could be accessed might deter people from using digital services or push them toward unregulated platforms.
• Business Implications: Companies relying on secure communications might face increased risks, affecting economic activities.

3. Ineffectiveness Against Skilled Adversaries

• Alternative Methods: Criminals might shift to other encrypted channels or develop new ways to avoid detection.
• False Sense of Security: Weakening encryption could give the impression of increased safety while adversaries adapt and continue their activities undetected.

Signal’s Response and Stance

Signal, a leading encrypted messaging service, has been vocal in its opposition to the EU's proposals:

• Refusal to Weaken Encryption: Signal's CEO Meredith Whittaker has stated that the company would rather cease operations in the EU than compromise its encryption standards.
• Advocacy for Privacy: Signal emphasizes that strong encryption is essential for protecting human rights and freedoms in the digital age.

Understanding Backdoors

A "backdoor" in encryption is an intentional weakness inserted into a system to allow authorized access to encrypted data. While intended for legitimate use by authorities, backdoors pose several problems:

• Security Vulnerabilities: They can be discovered and exploited by unauthorized parties, including hackers and foreign governments.
• Ethical Concerns: The existence of backdoors raises questions about consent and the extent to which governments should be able to access private communications.

The Slippery Slope Argument

Privacy advocates warn that introducing backdoors or mandatory scanning sets a precedent:

• Expanded Surveillance: Once in place, these measures could be extended to monitor other types of content beyond the original scope.
• Erosion of Rights: Gradual acceptance of surveillance can lead to a significant reduction in personal freedoms over time.

Potential Technological Alternatives

Some suggest that it's possible to fight illegal content without undermining encryption:

• Metadata Analysis: Focusing on patterns of communication rather than content.
• Enhanced Reporting Mechanisms: Encouraging users to report illegal content voluntarily.
• Investing in Law Enforcement Capabilities: Strengthening traditional investigative methods without compromising digital security.

The technical community largely agrees that weakening encryption is not the solution:

• Consensus on Security: Strong encryption is essential for the safety and privacy of all internet users.
• Call for Dialogue: Technologists and privacy experts advocate for collaborative approaches that address security concerns without sacrificing fundamental rights.

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Global Reactions and the Debate in Europe

The proposal for Chat Control has ignited a heated debate across Europe and beyond, with various stakeholders weighing in on the potential implications for privacy, security, and fundamental rights. The reactions are mixed, reflecting differing national perspectives, political priorities, and societal values.

Support for Chat Control

Some EU member states and officials support the initiative, emphasizing the need for robust measures to combat online crime and protect citizens, especially children. They argue that:

• Enhanced Security: Mandatory scanning can help law enforcement agencies detect and prevent serious crimes.
• Responsibility of Service Providers: Companies offering communication services should play an active role in preventing their platforms from being used for illegal activities.
• Public Safety Priorities: The protection of vulnerable populations justifies the implementation of such measures, even if it means compromising some aspects of privacy.

Opposition within the EU

Several countries and organizations have voiced strong opposition to Chat Control, citing concerns over privacy rights and the potential for government overreach.

Germany

• Stance: Germany has been one of the most vocal opponents of the proposed measures.
• Reasons:
• Constitutional Concerns: The German government argues that Chat Control could violate constitutional protections of privacy and confidentiality of communications.
• Security Risks: Weakening encryption is seen as a threat to cybersecurity.
• Legal Challenges: Potential conflicts with national laws protecting personal data and communication secrecy.

Netherlands

• Recent Developments: The Dutch government decided against supporting Chat Control, emphasizing the importance of encryption for security and privacy.
• Arguments:
• Effectiveness Doubts: Skepticism about the actual effectiveness of the measures in combating crime.
• Negative Impact on Privacy: Concerns about mass surveillance and the infringement of citizens' rights.

Table reference: Patrick Breyer - Chat Control in 23 September 2024

Privacy Advocacy Groups

European Digital Rights (EDRi)

• Role: A network of civil and human rights organizations working to defend rights and freedoms in the digital environment.
• Position:
• Strong Opposition: EDRi argues that Chat Control is incompatible with fundamental rights.
• Awareness Campaigns: Engaging in public campaigns to inform citizens about the potential risks.
• Policy Engagement: Lobbying policymakers to consider alternative approaches that respect privacy.

Politicians and Activists

Patrick Breyer

• Background: A Member of the European Parliament (MEP) from Germany, representing the Pirate Party.
• Actions:
• Advocacy: Actively campaigning against Chat Control through speeches, articles, and legislative efforts.
• Public Outreach: Using social media and public events to raise awareness.
• Legal Expertise: Highlighting the legal inconsistencies and potential violations of EU law.

Global Reactions

International Organizations

• Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International: These organizations have expressed concerns about the implications for human rights, urging the EU to reconsider.

Technology Companies

• Global Tech Firms: Companies like Apple and Microsoft are monitoring the situation, as EU regulations could affect their operations and user trust.
• Industry Associations: Groups representing tech companies have issued statements highlighting the risks to innovation and competitiveness.

The Broader Debate

The controversy over Chat Control reflects a broader struggle between security interests and privacy rights in the digital age. Key points in the debate include:

• Legal Precedents: How the EU's decision might influence laws and regulations in other countries.
• Digital Sovereignty: The desire of nations to control digital spaces within their borders.
• Civil Liberties: The importance of protecting freedoms in the face of technological advancements.

Public Opinion

• Diverse Views: Surveys and public forums show a range of opinions, with some citizens prioritizing security and others valuing privacy above all.
• Awareness Levels: Many people are still unaware of the potential changes, highlighting the need for public education on the issue.

The EU is at a crossroads, facing the challenge of addressing legitimate security concerns without undermining the fundamental rights that are central to its values. The outcome of this debate will have significant implications for the future of digital privacy and the balance between security and freedom in society.

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Possible Consequences for Messaging Services

The implementation of Chat Control could have significant implications for messaging services operating within the European Union. Both large platforms and smaller providers might need to adapt their technologies and policies to comply with the new regulations, potentially altering the landscape of digital communication.

Impact on Encrypted Messaging Services

Signal and Similar Platforms

• Compliance Challenges: Encrypted messaging services like Signal rely on end-to-end encryption to secure user communications. Complying with Chat Control could force them to weaken their encryption protocols or implement client-side scanning, conflicting with their core privacy principles.

• Operational Decisions: Some platforms may choose to limit their services in the EU or cease operations altogether rather than compromise on encryption. Signal, for instance, has indicated that it would prefer to withdraw from European markets than undermine its security features.

Potential Blocking or Limiting of Services

• Regulatory Enforcement: Messaging services that do not comply with Chat Control regulations could face fines, legal action, or even be blocked within the EU.

• Access Restrictions: Users in Europe might find certain services unavailable or limited in functionality if providers decide not to meet the regulatory requirements.

Effects on Smaller Providers

• Resource Constraints: Smaller messaging services and startups may lack the resources to implement the required scanning technologies, leading to increased operational costs or forcing them out of the market.

• Innovation Stifling: The added regulatory burden could deter new entrants, reducing competition and innovation in the messaging service sector.

User Experience and Trust

• Privacy Concerns: Users may lose trust in messaging platforms if they know their communications are subject to scanning, leading to a decline in user engagement.

• Migration to Unregulated Platforms: There is a risk that users might shift to less secure or unregulated services, including those operated outside the EU or on the dark web, potentially exposing them to greater risks.

Technical and Security Implications

• Increased Vulnerabilities: Modifying encryption protocols to comply with Chat Control could introduce security flaws, making platforms more susceptible to hacking and data breaches.

• Global Security Risks: Changes made to accommodate EU regulations might affect the global user base of these services, extending security risks beyond European borders.

Impact on Businesses and Professional Communications

• Confidentiality Issues: Businesses that rely on secure messaging for sensitive communications may face challenges in ensuring confidentiality, affecting sectors like finance, healthcare, and legal services.

• Compliance Complexity: Companies operating internationally will need to navigate a complex landscape of differing regulations, increasing administrative burdens.

Economic Consequences

• Market Fragmentation: Divergent regulations could lead to a fragmented market, with different versions of services for different regions.

• Loss of Revenue: Messaging services might experience reduced revenue due to decreased user trust and engagement or the costs associated with compliance.

Responses from Service Providers

• Legal Challenges: Companies might pursue legal action against the regulations, citing conflicts with privacy laws and user rights.

• Policy Advocacy: Service providers may increase lobbying efforts to influence policy decisions and promote alternatives to Chat Control.

Possible Adaptations

• Technological Innovation: Some providers might invest in developing new technologies that can detect illegal content without compromising encryption, though the feasibility remains uncertain.

• Transparency Measures: To maintain user trust, companies might enhance transparency about how data is handled and what measures are in place to protect privacy.

The potential consequences of Chat Control for messaging services are profound, affecting not only the companies that provide these services but also the users who rely on them daily. The balance between complying with legal requirements and maintaining user privacy and security presents a significant challenge that could reshape the digital communication landscape.

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What Happens Next? The Future of Chat Control

The future of Chat Control remains uncertain as the debate continues among EU member states, policymakers, technology companies, and civil society organizations. Several factors will influence the outcome of this contentious proposal, each carrying significant implications for digital privacy, security, and the regulatory environment within the European Union.

Current Status of Legislation

• Ongoing Negotiations: The proposed Chat Control measures are still under discussion within the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union. Amendments and revisions are being considered in response to the feedback from various stakeholders.

• Timeline: While there is no fixed date for the final decision, the EU aims to reach a consensus to implement effective measures against online crime without undue delay.

Key Influencing Factors

1. Legal Challenges and Compliance with EU Law

• Fundamental Rights Assessment: The proposals must be evaluated against the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union, ensuring that any measures comply with rights to privacy, data protection, and freedom of expression.

• Court Scrutiny: Potential legal challenges could arise, leading to scrutiny by the European Court of Justice (ECJ), which may impact the feasibility and legality of Chat Control.

2. Technological Feasibility

• Development of Privacy-Preserving Technologies: Research into methods that can detect illegal content without compromising encryption is ongoing. Advances in this area could provide alternative solutions acceptable to both privacy advocates and security agencies.

• Implementation Challenges: The practical aspects of deploying scanning technologies across various platforms and services remain complex, and technical hurdles could delay or alter the proposed measures.

3. Political Dynamics

• Member State Positions: The differing stances of EU countries, such as Germany's opposition, play a significant role in shaping the final outcome. Consensus among member states is crucial for adopting EU-wide regulations.

• Public Opinion and Advocacy: Growing awareness and activism around digital privacy can influence policymakers. Public campaigns and lobbying efforts may sway decisions in favor of stronger privacy protections.

4. Industry Responses

• Negotiations with Service Providers: Ongoing dialogues between EU authorities and technology companies may lead to compromises or collaborative efforts to address concerns without fully implementing Chat Control as initially proposed.

• Potential for Self-Regulation: Messaging services might propose self-regulatory measures to combat illegal content, aiming to demonstrate effectiveness without the need for mandatory scanning.

Possible Scenarios

Optimistic Outcome:

• Balanced Regulation: A revised proposal emerges that effectively addresses security concerns while upholding strong encryption and privacy rights, possibly through innovative technologies or targeted measures with robust oversight.

Pessimistic Outcome:

• Adoption of Strict Measures: Chat Control is implemented as initially proposed, leading to weakened encryption, reduced privacy, and potential withdrawal of services like Signal from the EU market.

Middle Ground:

• Incremental Implementation: Partial measures are adopted, focusing on voluntary cooperation with service providers and emphasizing transparency and user consent, with ongoing evaluations to assess effectiveness and impact.

How to Stay Informed and Protect Your Privacy

• Follow Reputable Sources: Keep up with news from reliable outlets, official EU communications, and statements from privacy organizations to stay informed about developments.

• Engage in the Dialogue: Participate in public consultations, sign petitions, or contact representatives to express your views on Chat Control and digital privacy.

• Utilize Secure Practices: Regardless of legislative outcomes, adopting good digital hygiene—such as using strong passwords and being cautious with personal information—can enhance your online security.

The Global Perspective

• International Implications: The EU's decision may influence global policies on encryption and surveillance, setting precedents that other countries might follow or react against.

• Collaboration Opportunities: International cooperation on developing solutions that protect both security and privacy could emerge, fostering a more unified approach to addressing online threats.

Looking Ahead

The future of Chat Control is a critical issue that underscores the challenges of governing in the digital age. Balancing the need for security with the protection of fundamental rights is a complex task that requires careful consideration, open dialogue, and collaboration among all stakeholders.

As the situation evolves, staying informed and engaged is essential. The decisions made in the coming months will shape the digital landscape for years to come, affecting how we communicate, conduct business, and exercise our rights in an increasingly connected world.

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Conclusion

The debate over Chat Control highlights a fundamental challenge in our increasingly digital world: how to protect society from genuine threats without eroding the very rights and freedoms that define it. While the intention to safeguard children and prevent crime is undeniably important, the means of achieving this through intrusive surveillance measures raise critical concerns.

Privacy is not just a personal preference but a cornerstone of democratic societies. End-to-end encryption has become an essential tool for ensuring that our personal conversations, professional communications, and sensitive data remain secure from unwanted intrusion. Weakening these protections could expose individuals and organizations to risks that far outweigh the proposed benefits.

The potential consequences of implementing Chat Control are far-reaching:

• Erosion of Trust: Users may lose confidence in digital platforms, impacting how we communicate and conduct business online.
• Security Vulnerabilities: Introducing backdoors or weakening encryption can make systems more susceptible to cyberattacks.
• Stifling Innovation: Regulatory burdens may hinder technological advancement and competitiveness in the tech industry.
• Global Implications: The EU's decisions could set precedents that influence digital policies worldwide, for better or worse.

As citizens, it's crucial to stay informed about these developments. Engage in conversations, reach out to your representatives, and advocate for solutions that respect both security needs and fundamental rights. Technology and policy can evolve together to address challenges without compromising core values.

The future of Chat Control is not yet decided, and public input can make a significant difference. By promoting open dialogue, supporting privacy-preserving innovations, and emphasizing the importance of human rights in legislation, we can work towards a digital landscape that is both safe and free.

In a world where digital communication is integral to daily life, striking the right balance between security and privacy is more important than ever. The choices made today will shape the digital environment for generations to come, determining not just how we communicate, but how we live and interact in an interconnected world.

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Thank you for reading this article. We hope it has provided you with a clear understanding of Chat Control and its potential impact on your privacy and digital rights. Stay informed, stay engaged, and let's work together towards a secure and open digital future.

Read more:

• https://www.patrick-breyer.de/en/posts/chat-control/
• https://www.patrick-breyer.de/en/new-eu-push-for-chat-control-will-messenger-services-be-blocked-in-europe/
• https://edri.org/our-work/dutch-decision-puts-brakes-on-chat-control/
• https://signal.org/blog/pdfs/ndss-keynote.pdf
• https://tuta.com/blog/germany-stop-chat-control
• https://cointelegraph.com/news/signal-president-slams-revised-eu-encryption-proposal
• https://mullvad.net/en/why-privacy-matters

@ 4ba8e86d:89d32de4

O que é Cwtch? Cwtch (/kʊtʃ/ - uma palavra galesa que pode ser traduzida aproximadamente como “um abraço que cria um lugar seguro”) é um protocolo de mensagens multipartidário descentralizado, que preserva a privacidade, que pode ser usado para construir aplicativos resistentes a metadados.

Como posso pronunciar Cwtch? Como "kutch", para rimar com "butch".

Descentralizado e Aberto : Não existe “serviço Cwtch” ou “rede Cwtch”. Os participantes do Cwtch podem hospedar seus próprios espaços seguros ou emprestar sua infraestrutura para outras pessoas que buscam um espaço seguro. O protocolo Cwtch é aberto e qualquer pessoa é livre para criar bots, serviços e interfaces de usuário e integrar e interagir com o Cwtch.

Preservação de privacidade : toda a comunicação no Cwtch é criptografada de ponta a ponta e ocorre nos serviços cebola Tor v3.

Resistente a metadados : O Cwtch foi projetado de forma que nenhuma informação seja trocada ou disponibilizada a ninguém sem seu consentimento explícito, incluindo mensagens durante a transmissão e metadados de protocolo

Uma breve história do bate-papo resistente a metadados Nos últimos anos, a conscientização pública sobre a necessidade e os benefícios das soluções criptografadas de ponta a ponta aumentou com aplicativos como Signal , Whatsapp e Wire. que agora fornecem aos usuários comunicações seguras.

No entanto, essas ferramentas exigem vários níveis de exposição de metadados para funcionar, e muitos desses metadados podem ser usados ​​para obter detalhes sobre como e por que uma pessoa está usando uma ferramenta para se comunicar.

Uma ferramenta que buscou reduzir metadados é o Ricochet lançado pela primeira vez em 2014. Ricochet usou os serviços cebola Tor v2 para fornecer comunicação criptografada segura de ponta a ponta e para proteger os metadados das comunicações.

Não havia servidores centralizados que auxiliassem no roteamento das conversas do Ricochet. Ninguém além das partes envolvidas em uma conversa poderia saber que tal conversa está ocorrendo.

Ricochet tinha limitações; não havia suporte para vários dispositivos, nem existe um mecanismo para suportar a comunicação em grupo ou para um usuário enviar mensagens enquanto um contato está offline.

Isto tornou a adoção do Ricochet uma proposta difícil; mesmo aqueles em ambientes que seriam melhor atendidos pela resistência aos metadados, sem saber que ela existe.

Além disso, qualquer solução para comunicação descentralizada e resistente a metadados enfrenta problemas fundamentais quando se trata de eficiência, privacidade e segurança de grupo conforme definido pelo consenso e consistência da transcrição.

Alternativas modernas ao Ricochet incluem Briar , Zbay e Ricochet Refresh - cada ferramenta procura otimizar para um conjunto diferente de compensações, por exemplo, Briar procura permitir que as pessoas se comuniquem mesmo quando a infraestrutura de rede subjacente está inoperante, ao mesmo tempo que fornece resistência à vigilância de metadados.

O projeto Cwtch começou em 2017 como um protocolo de extensão para Ricochet, fornecendo conversas em grupo por meio de servidores não confiáveis, com o objetivo de permitir aplicativos descentralizados e resistentes a metadados como listas compartilhadas e quadros de avisos.

Uma versão alfa do Cwtch foi lançada em fevereiro de 2019 e, desde então, a equipe do Cwtch dirigida pela OPEN PRIVACY RESEARCH SOCIETY conduziu pesquisa e desenvolvimento em cwtch e nos protocolos, bibliotecas e espaços de problemas subjacentes.

Modelo de Risco.

Sabe-se que os metadados de comunicações são explorados por vários adversários para minar a segurança dos sistemas, para rastrear vítimas e para realizar análises de redes sociais em grande escala para alimentar a vigilância em massa. As ferramentas resistentes a metadados estão em sua infância e faltam pesquisas sobre a construção e a experiência do usuário de tais ferramentas.

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O Cwtch foi originalmente concebido como uma extensão do protocolo Ricochet resistente a metadados para suportar comunicações assíncronas de grupos multiponto por meio do uso de infraestrutura anônima, descartável e não confiável.

Desde então, o Cwtch evoluiu para um protocolo próprio. Esta seção descreverá os vários riscos conhecidos que o Cwtch tenta mitigar e será fortemente referenciado no restante do documento ao discutir os vários subcomponentes da Arquitetura Cwtch.

Modelo de ameaça.

É importante identificar e compreender que os metadados são omnipresentes nos protocolos de comunicação; é de facto necessário que tais protocolos funcionem de forma eficiente e em escala. No entanto, as informações que são úteis para facilitar peers e servidores também são altamente relevantes para adversários que desejam explorar tais informações.

Para a definição do nosso problema, assumiremos que o conteúdo de uma comunicação é criptografado de tal forma que um adversário é praticamente incapaz de quebrá-lo veja tapir e cwtch para detalhes sobre a criptografia que usamos, e como tal nos concentraremos em o contexto para os metadados de comunicação.

Procuramos proteger os seguintes contextos de comunicação:

• Quem está envolvido em uma comunicação? Pode ser possível identificar pessoas ou simplesmente identificadores de dispositivos ou redes. Por exemplo, “esta comunicação envolve Alice, uma jornalista, e Bob, um funcionário público”.

• Onde estão os participantes da conversa? Por exemplo, “durante esta comunicação, Alice estava na França e Bob estava no Canadá”.

• Quando ocorreu uma conversa? O momento e a duração da comunicação podem revelar muito sobre a natureza de uma chamada, por exemplo, “Bob, um funcionário público, conversou com Alice ao telefone por uma hora ontem à noite. Esta é a primeira vez que eles se comunicam.” *Como a conversa foi mediada? O fato de uma conversa ter ocorrido por meio de um e-mail criptografado ou não criptografado pode fornecer informações úteis. Por exemplo, “Alice enviou um e-mail criptografado para Bob ontem, enquanto eles normalmente enviam apenas e-mails de texto simples um para o outro”.

• Sobre o que é a conversa? Mesmo que o conteúdo da comunicação seja criptografado, às vezes é possível derivar um contexto provável de uma conversa sem saber exatamente o que é dito, por exemplo, “uma pessoa ligou para uma pizzaria na hora do jantar” ou “alguém ligou para um número conhecido de linha direta de suicídio na hora do jantar”. 3 horas da manhã."

Além das conversas individuais, também procuramos defender-nos contra ataques de correlação de contexto, através dos quais múltiplas conversas são analisadas para obter informações de nível superior:

• Relacionamentos: Descobrir relações sociais entre um par de entidades analisando a frequência e a duração de suas comunicações durante um período de tempo. Por exemplo, Carol e Eve ligam uma para a outra todos os dias durante várias horas seguidas.

• Cliques: Descobrir relações sociais entre um grupo de entidades que interagem entre si. Por exemplo, Alice, Bob e Eva se comunicam entre si.

• Grupos vagamente conectados e indivíduos-ponte: descobrir grupos que se comunicam entre si através de intermediários, analisando cadeias de comunicação (por exemplo, toda vez que Alice fala com Bob, ela fala com Carol quase imediatamente depois; Bob e Carol nunca se comunicam).

• Padrão de Vida: Descobrir quais comunicações são cíclicas e previsíveis. Por exemplo, Alice liga para Eve toda segunda-feira à noite por cerca de uma hora. Ataques Ativos

Ataques de deturpação.

O Cwtch não fornece registro global de nomes de exibição e, como tal, as pessoas que usam o Cwtch são mais vulneráveis ​​a ataques baseados em declarações falsas, ou seja, pessoas que fingem ser outras pessoas:

O fluxo básico de um desses ataques é o seguinte, embora também existam outros fluxos:

•Alice tem um amigo chamado Bob e outro chamado Eve

• Eve descobre que Alice tem um amigo chamado Bob

• Eve cria milhares de novas contas para encontrar uma que tenha uma imagem/chave pública semelhante à de Bob (não será idêntica, mas pode enganar alguém por alguns minutos)

• Eve chama essa nova conta de "Eve New Account" e adiciona Alice como amiga.

• Eve então muda seu nome em "Eve New Account" para "Bob"

• Alice envia mensagens destinadas a "Bob" para a conta falsa de Bob de Eve Como os ataques de declarações falsas são inerentemente uma questão de confiança e verificação, a única maneira absoluta de evitá-los é os usuários validarem absolutamente a chave pública. Obviamente, isso não é o ideal e, em muitos casos, simplesmente não acontecerá .

Como tal, pretendemos fornecer algumas dicas de experiência do usuário na interface do usuário para orientar as pessoas na tomada de decisões sobre confiar em contas e/ou distinguir contas que possam estar tentando se representar como outros usuários.

Uma nota sobre ataques físicos A Cwtch não considera ataques que exijam acesso físico (ou equivalente) à máquina do usuário como praticamente defensáveis. No entanto, no interesse de uma boa engenharia de segurança, ao longo deste documento ainda nos referiremos a ataques ou condições que exigem tal privilégio e indicaremos onde quaisquer mitigações que implementámos falharão.

Um perfil Cwtch.

Os usuários podem criar um ou mais perfis Cwtch. Cada perfil gera um par de chaves ed25519 aleatório compatível com Tor.

Além do material criptográfico, um perfil também contém uma lista de Contatos (outras chaves públicas do perfil Cwtch + dados associados sobre esse perfil, como apelido e (opcionalmente) mensagens históricas), uma lista de Grupos (contendo o material criptográfico do grupo, além de outros dados associados, como apelido do grupo e mensagens históricas).

Conversões entre duas partes: ponto a ponto

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Para que duas partes participem de uma conversa ponto a ponto, ambas devem estar on-line, mas apenas uma precisa estar acessível por meio do serviço Onion. Por uma questão de clareza, muitas vezes rotulamos uma parte como “ponto de entrada” (aquele que hospeda o serviço cebola) e a outra parte como “ponto de saída” (aquele que se conecta ao serviço cebola).

Após a conexão, ambas as partes adotam um protocolo de autenticação que:

• Afirma que cada parte tem acesso à chave privada associada à sua identidade pública.

• Gera uma chave de sessão efêmera usada para criptografar todas as comunicações futuras durante a sessão.

Esta troca (documentada com mais detalhes no protocolo de autenticação ) é negável offline , ou seja, é possível para qualquer parte falsificar transcrições desta troca de protocolo após o fato e, como tal - após o fato - é impossível provar definitivamente que a troca aconteceu de forma alguma.

Após o protocolo de autenticação, as duas partes podem trocar mensagens livremente.

Conversas em Grupo e Comunicação Ponto a Servidor

Ao iniciar uma conversa em grupo, é gerada uma chave aleatória para o grupo, conhecida como Group Key. Todas as comunicações do grupo são criptografadas usando esta chave. Além disso, o criador do grupo escolhe um servidor Cwtch para hospedar o grupo. Um convite é gerado, incluindo o Group Key, o servidor do grupo e a chave do grupo, para ser enviado aos potenciais membros.

Para enviar uma mensagem ao grupo, um perfil se conecta ao servidor do grupo e criptografa a mensagem usando a Group Key, gerando também uma assinatura sobre o Group ID, o servidor do grupo e a mensagem. Para receber mensagens do grupo, um perfil se conecta ao servidor e baixa as mensagens, tentando descriptografá-las usando a Group Key e verificando a assinatura.

Detalhamento do Ecossistema de Componentes

O Cwtch é composto por várias bibliotecas de componentes menores, cada uma desempenhando um papel específico. Algumas dessas bibliotecas incluem:

• abertoprivacidade/conectividade: Abstração de rede ACN, atualmente suportando apenas Tor.
• cwtch.im/tapir: Biblioteca para construção de aplicativos p2p em sistemas de comunicação anônimos.
• cwtch.im/cwtch: Biblioteca principal para implementação do protocolo/sistema Cwtch.
• cwtch.im/libcwtch-go: Fornece ligações C para Cwtch para uso em implementações de UI.

TAPIR: Uma Visão Detalhada

Projetado para substituir os antigos canais de ricochete baseados em protobuf, o Tapir fornece uma estrutura para a construção de aplicativos anônimos.

Está dividido em várias camadas:

• Identidade - Um par de chaves ed25519, necessário para estabelecer um serviço cebola Tor v3 e usado para manter uma identidade criptográfica consistente para um par.

• Conexões – O protocolo de rede bruto que conecta dois pares. Até agora, as conexões são definidas apenas através do Tor v3 Onion Services.

• Aplicativos - As diversas lógicas que permitem um determinado fluxo de informações em uma conexão. Os exemplos incluem transcrições criptográficas compartilhadas, autenticação, proteção contra spam e serviços baseados em tokens. Os aplicativos fornecem recursos que podem ser referenciados por outros aplicativos para determinar se um determinado peer tem a capacidade de usar um determinado aplicativo hospedado.

• Pilhas de aplicativos - Um mecanismo para conectar mais de um aplicativo, por exemplo, a autenticação depende de uma transcrição criptográfica compartilhada e o aplicativo peer cwtch principal é baseado no aplicativo de autenticação.

Identidade.

Um par de chaves ed25519, necessário para estabelecer um serviço cebola Tor v3 e usado para manter uma identidade criptográfica consistente para um peer.

InitializeIdentity - de um par de chaves conhecido e persistente:i,I

InitializeEphemeralIdentity - de um par de chaves aleatório: ie,Ie

Aplicativos de transcrição.

Inicializa uma transcrição criptográfica baseada em Merlin que pode ser usada como base de protocolos baseados em compromisso de nível superior

O aplicativo de transcrição entrará em pânico se um aplicativo tentar substituir uma transcrição existente por uma nova (aplicando a regra de que uma sessão é baseada em uma e apenas uma transcrição).

Merlin é uma construção de transcrição baseada em STROBE para provas de conhecimento zero. Ele automatiza a transformação Fiat-Shamir, para que, usando Merlin, protocolos não interativos possam ser implementados como se fossem interativos.

Isto é significativamente mais fácil e menos sujeito a erros do que realizar a transformação manualmente e, além disso, também fornece suporte natural para:

• protocolos multi-round com fases alternadas de commit e desafio;

• separação natural de domínios, garantindo que os desafios estejam vinculados às afirmações a serem provadas;

• enquadramento automático de mensagens, evitando codificação ambígua de dados de compromisso;

• e composição do protocolo, usando uma transcrição comum para vários protocolos.

Finalmente, o Merlin também fornece um gerador de números aleatórios baseado em transcrição como defesa profunda contra ataques de entropia ruim (como reutilização de nonce ou preconceito em muitas provas). Este RNG fornece aleatoriedade sintética derivada de toda a transcrição pública, bem como dos dados da testemunha do provador e uma entrada auxiliar de um RNG externo.

Conectividade Cwtch faz uso do Tor Onion Services (v3) para todas as comunicações entre nós.

Fornecemos o pacote openprivacy/connectivity para gerenciar o daemon Tor e configurar e desmontar serviços cebola através do Tor.

Criptografia e armazenamento de perfil.

Os perfis são armazenados localmente no disco e criptografados usando uma chave derivada de uma senha conhecida pelo usuário (via pbkdf2).

Observe que, uma vez criptografado e armazenado em disco, a única maneira de recuperar um perfil é recuperando a senha - como tal, não é possível fornecer uma lista completa de perfis aos quais um usuário pode ter acesso até inserir uma senha.

Perfis não criptografados e a senha padrão Para lidar com perfis "não criptografados" (ou seja, que não exigem senha para serem abertos), atualmente criamos um perfil com uma senha codificada de fato .

Isso não é o ideal, preferiríamos confiar no material de chave fornecido pelo sistema operacional, de modo que o perfil fosse vinculado a um dispositivo específico, mas esses recursos são atualmente uma colcha de retalhos - também notamos, ao criar um perfil não criptografado, pessoas que usam Cwtch estão explicitamente optando pelo risco de que alguém com acesso ao sistema de arquivos possa descriptografar seu perfil.

Vulnerabilidades Relacionadas a Imagens e Entrada de Dados

Imagens Maliciosas

O Cwtch enfrenta desafios na renderização de imagens, com o Flutter utilizando Skia, embora o código subjacente não seja totalmente seguro para a memória.

Realizamos testes de fuzzing nos componentes Cwtch e encontramos um bug de travamento causado por um arquivo GIF malformado, levando a falhas no kernel. Para mitigar isso, adotamos a política de sempre habilitar cacheWidth e/ou cacheHeight máximo para widgets de imagem.

Identificamos o risco de imagens maliciosas serem renderizadas de forma diferente em diferentes plataformas, como evidenciado por um bug no analisador PNG da Apple.

Riscos de Entrada de Dados

Um risco significativo é a interceptação de conteúdo ou metadados por meio de um Input Method Editor (IME) em dispositivos móveis. Mesmo aplicativos IME padrão podem expor dados por meio de sincronização na nuvem, tradução online ou dicionários pessoais.

Implementamos medidas de mitigação, como enableIMEPersonalizedLearning: false no Cwtch 1.2, mas a solução completa requer ações em nível de sistema operacional e é um desafio contínuo para a segurança móvel.

Servidor Cwtch.

O objetivo do protocolo Cwtch é permitir a comunicação em grupo através de infraestrutura não confiável .

Ao contrário dos esquemas baseados em retransmissão, onde os grupos atribuem um líder, um conjunto de líderes ou um servidor confiável de terceiros para garantir que cada membro do grupo possa enviar e receber mensagens em tempo hábil (mesmo que os membros estejam offline) - infraestrutura não confiável tem o objetivo de realizar essas propriedades sem a suposição de confiança.

O artigo original do Cwtch definia um conjunto de propriedades que se esperava que os servidores Cwtch fornecessem:

• O Cwtch Server pode ser usado por vários grupos ou apenas um.

• Um servidor Cwtch, sem a colaboração de um membro do grupo, nunca deve aprender a identidade dos participantes de um grupo.

• Um servidor Cwtch nunca deve aprender o conteúdo de qualquer comunicação.

• Um servidor Cwtch nunca deve ser capaz de distinguir mensagens como pertencentes a um grupo específico. Observamos aqui que essas propriedades são um superconjunto dos objetivos de design das estruturas de Recuperação de Informações Privadas.

Melhorias na Eficiência e Segurança

Eficiência do Protocolo

Atualmente, apenas um protocolo conhecido, o PIR ingênuo, atende às propriedades desejadas para garantir a privacidade na comunicação do grupo Cwtch. Este método tem um impacto direto na eficiência da largura de banda, especialmente para usuários em dispositivos móveis. Em resposta a isso, estamos ativamente desenvolvendo novos protocolos que permitem negociar garantias de privacidade e eficiência de maneiras diversas.

Os servidores, no momento desta escrita, permitem o download completo de todas as mensagens armazenadas, bem como uma solicitação para baixar mensagens específicas a partir de uma determinada mensagem. Quando os pares ingressam em um grupo em um novo servidor, eles baixam todas as mensagens do servidor inicialmente e, posteriormente, apenas as mensagens novas.

Mitigação de Análise de Metadados

Essa abordagem permite uma análise moderada de metadados, pois o servidor pode enviar novas mensagens para cada perfil suspeito exclusivo e usar essas assinaturas de mensagens exclusivas para rastrear sessões ao longo do tempo. Essa preocupação é mitigada por dois fatores:

1. Os perfis podem atualizar suas conexões a qualquer momento, resultando em uma nova sessão do servidor.
2. Os perfis podem ser "ressincronizados" de um servidor a qualquer momento, resultando em uma nova chamada para baixar todas as mensagens. Isso é comumente usado para buscar mensagens antigas de um grupo.

Embora essas medidas imponham limites ao que o servidor pode inferir, ainda não podemos garantir resistência total aos metadados. Para soluções futuras para esse problema, consulte Niwl.

Proteção contra Pares Maliciosos

Os servidores enfrentam o risco de spam gerado por pares, representando uma ameaça significativa à eficácia do sistema Cwtch. Embora tenhamos implementado um mecanismo de proteção contra spam no protótipo do Cwtch, exigindo que os pares realizem alguma prova de trabalho especificada pelo servidor, reconhecemos que essa não é uma solução robusta na presença de um adversário determinado com recursos significativos.

Pacotes de Chaves

Os servidores Cwtch se identificam por meio de pacotes de chaves assinados, contendo uma lista de chaves necessárias para garantir a segurança e resistência aos metadados na comunicação do grupo Cwtch. Esses pacotes de chaves geralmente incluem três chaves: uma chave pública do serviço Tor v3 Onion para o Token Board, uma chave pública do Tor v3 Onion Service para o Token Service e uma chave pública do Privacy Pass.

Para verificar os pacotes de chaves, os perfis que os importam do servidor utilizam o algoritmo trust-on-first-use (TOFU), verificando a assinatura anexada e a existência de todos os tipos de chave. Se o perfil já tiver importado o pacote de chaves do servidor anteriormente, todas as chaves são consideradas iguais.

Configuração prévia do aplicativo para ativar o Relé do Cwtch.

No Android, a hospedagem de servidor não está habilitada, pois essa opção não está disponível devido às limitações dos dispositivos Android. Essa funcionalidade está reservada apenas para servidores hospedados em desktops.

No Android, a única forma direta de importar uma chave de servidor é através do grupo de teste Cwtch, garantindo assim acesso ao servidor Cwtch.

Primeiro passo é Habilitar a opção de grupo no Cwtch que está em fase de testes. Clique na opção no canto superior direito da tela de configuração e pressione o botão para acessar as configurações do Cwtch.

Você pode alterar o idioma para Português do Brasil.Depois, role para baixo e selecione a opção para ativar os experimentos. Em seguida, ative a opção para habilitar o chat em grupo e a pré-visualização de imagens e fotos de perfil, permitindo que você troque sua foto de perfil.

https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jvss6zxle26jdguwaegtjdixhfka/production/f0ca039733d48895001261ab25c5d2efbaf3bf26e55aad3cce406646f9af9d15.MP4

Próximo passo é Criar um perfil.

Pressione o + botão de ação no canto inferior direito e selecione "Novo perfil" ou aberta no botão + adicionar novo perfil.

• Selecione um nome de exibição

• Selecione se deseja proteger

este perfil e salvo localmente com criptografia forte: Senha: sua conta está protegida de outras pessoas que possam usar este dispositivo

Sem senha: qualquer pessoa que tenha acesso a este dispositivo poderá acessar este perfil.

Preencha sua senha e digite-a novamente

Os perfis são armazenados localmente no disco e criptografados usando uma chave derivada de uma senha conhecida pelo usuário (via pbkdf2).

Observe que, uma vez criptografado e armazenado em disco, a única maneira de recuperar um perfil é recuperando a chave da senha - como tal, não é possível fornecer uma lista completa de perfis aos quais um usuário pode ter acesso até inserir um senha.

https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jxqbqmur2lcqe2eym5thgz4so2ya/production/8f9df1372ec7e659180609afa48be22b12109ae5e1eda9ef1dc05c1325652507.MP4

O próximo passo é adicionar o FuzzBot, que é um bot de testes e de desenvolvimento.

Contato do FuzzBot: 4y2hxlxqzautabituedksnh2ulcgm2coqbure6wvfpg4gi2ci25ta5ad.

Ao enviar o comando "testgroup-invite" para o FuzzBot, você receberá um convite para entrar no Grupo Cwtch Test. Ao ingressar no grupo, você será automaticamente conectado ao servidor Cwtch. Você pode optar por sair do grupo a qualquer momento ou ficar para conversar e tirar dúvidas sobre o aplicativo e outros assuntos. Depois, você pode configurar seu próprio servidor Cwtch, o que é altamente recomendável.

https://link.storjshare.io/raw/jvji25zclkoqcouni5decle7if7a/production/ee3de3540a3e3dca6e6e26d303e12c2ef892a5d7769029275b8b95ffc7468780.MP4

Agora você pode utilizar o aplicativo normalmente. Algumas observações que notei: se houver demora na conexão com outra pessoa, ambas devem estar online. Se ainda assim a conexão não for estabelecida, basta clicar no ícone de reset do Tor para restabelecer a conexão com a outra pessoa.

Uma introdução aos perfis Cwtch.

Com Cwtch você pode criar um ou mais perfis . Cada perfil gera um par de chaves ed25519 aleatório compatível com a Rede Tor.

Este é o identificador que você pode fornecer às pessoas e que elas podem usar para entrar em contato com você via Cwtch.

Cwtch permite criar e gerenciar vários perfis separados. Cada perfil está associado a um par de chaves diferente que inicia um serviço cebola diferente.

Gerenciar Na inicialização, o Cwtch abrirá a tela Gerenciar Perfis. Nessa tela você pode:

• Crie um novo perfil.
• Desbloquear perfis.
• Criptografados existentes.
• Gerenciar perfis carregados.
• Alterando o nome de exibição de um perfil.
• Alterando a senha de um perfil Excluindo um perfil.
• Alterando uma imagem de perfil.

Backup ou exportação de um perfil.

Na tela de gerenciamento de perfil:

1. Selecione o lápis ao lado do perfil que você deseja editar

2. Role para baixo até a parte inferior da tela.

3. Selecione "Exportar perfil"

4. Escolha um local e um nome de arquivo.

5.confirme.

Uma vez confirmado, o Cwtch colocará uma cópia do perfil no local indicado. Este arquivo é criptografado no mesmo nível do perfil.

Este arquivo pode ser importado para outra instância do Cwtch em qualquer dispositivo.

Importando um perfil.

1. Pressione o +botão de ação no canto inferior direito e selecione "Importar perfil"

2. Selecione um arquivo de perfil Cwtch exportado para importar

3. Digite a senha associada ao perfil e confirme.

Uma vez confirmado, o Cwtch tentará descriptografar o arquivo fornecido usando uma chave derivada da senha fornecida. Se for bem-sucedido, o perfil aparecerá na tela Gerenciamento de perfil e estará pronto para uso.

OBSERVAÇÃO Embora um perfil possa ser importado para vários dispositivos, atualmente apenas uma versão de um perfil pode ser usada em todos os dispositivos ao mesmo tempo. As tentativas de usar o mesmo perfil em vários dispositivos podem resultar em problemas de disponibilidade e falhas de mensagens.

Qual é a diferença entre uma conexão ponto a ponto e um grupo cwtch?

As conexões ponto a ponto Cwtch permitem que 2 pessoas troquem mensagens diretamente. As conexões ponto a ponto nos bastidores usam serviços cebola Tor v3 para fornecer uma conexão criptografada e resistente a metadados. Devido a esta conexão direta, ambas as partes precisam estar online ao mesmo tempo para trocar mensagens.

Os Grupos Cwtch permitem que várias partes participem de uma única conversa usando um servidor não confiável (que pode ser fornecido por terceiros ou auto-hospedado). Os operadores de servidores não conseguem saber quantas pessoas estão em um grupo ou o que está sendo discutido. Se vários grupos estiverem hospedados em um único servidor, o servidor não conseguirá saber quais mensagens pertencem a qual grupo sem a conivência de um membro do grupo. Ao contrário das conversas entre pares, as conversas em grupo podem ser conduzidas de forma assíncrona, para que todos num grupo não precisem estar online ao mesmo tempo.

Por que os grupos cwtch são experimentais? Mensagens em grupo resistentes a metadados ainda são um problema em aberto . Embora a versão que fornecemos no Cwtch Beta seja projetada para ser segura e com metadados privados, ela é bastante ineficiente e pode ser mal utilizada. Como tal, aconselhamos cautela ao usá-lo e apenas o fornecemos como um recurso opcional.

Como posso executar meu próprio servidor Cwtch? A implementação de referência para um servidor Cwtch é de código aberto . Qualquer pessoa pode executar um servidor Cwtch, e qualquer pessoa com uma cópia do pacote de chaves públicas do servidor pode hospedar grupos nesse servidor sem que o operador tenha acesso aos metadados relacionados ao grupo .

https://git.openprivacy.ca/cwtch.im/server

https://docs.openprivacy.ca/cwtch-security-handbook/server.html

Como posso desligar o Cwtch? O painel frontal do aplicativo possui um ícone do botão "Shutdown Cwtch" (com um 'X'). Pressionar este botão irá acionar uma caixa de diálogo e, na confirmação, o Cwtch será desligado e todos os perfis serão descarregados.

Suas doações podem fazer a diferença no projeto Cwtch? O Cwtch é um projeto dedicado a construir aplicativos que preservam a privacidade, oferecendo comunicação de grupo resistente a metadados. Além disso, o projeto também desenvolve o Cofre, formulários da web criptografados para ajudar mútua segura. Suas contribuições apoiam iniciativas importantes, como a divulgação de violações de dados médicos em Vancouver e pesquisas sobre a segurança do voto eletrônico na Suíça. Ao doar, você está ajudando a fechar o ciclo, trabalhando com comunidades marginalizadas para identificar e corrigir lacunas de privacidade. Além disso, o projeto trabalha em soluções inovadoras, como a quebra de segredos através da criptografia de limite para proteger sua privacidade durante passagens de fronteira. E também tem a infraestrutura: toda nossa infraestrutura é open source e sem fins lucrativos. Conheça também o Fuzzytags, uma estrutura criptográfica probabilística para marcação resistente a metadados. Sua doação é crucial para continuar o trabalho em prol da privacidade e segurança online. Contribua agora com sua doação

https://openprivacy.ca/donate/

onde você pode fazer sua doação em bitcoin e outras moedas, e saiba mais sobre os projetos. https://openprivacy.ca/work/

Link sobre Cwtch

https://cwtch.im/

https://git.openprivacy.ca/cwtch.im/cwtch

https://docs.cwtch.im/docs/intro

https://docs.openprivacy.ca/cwtch-security-handbook/

Baixar #CwtchDev

cwtch.im/download/

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=im.cwtch.flwtch

@ 7e538978:a5987ab6

Chain Duel, a fast paced PvP game that takes inspiration from the classic snake game and supercharges it with Bitcoin’s Lightning Network. Imagine battling another player for dominance in a race to collect blocks, where the length of your chain isn’t just a visual cue. It represents real, staked satoshis. The player with the most Proof of Work wins, but it’s not just about gameplay; it’s about the seamless integration of the Lightning Network and real-time payments.

But how does Chain Duel manage these instant transactions with such efficiency? That’s where LNbits comes in. LNbits, an open-source wallet and payment infrastructure, handles all in-game payments making it easy for developers to focus on gameplay while LNbits takes care of everything from microtransactions to automated splits for developers and designers. In this article, we’ll dive deep into how Chain Duel leverages LNbits to streamline in-game payments and how other developers can take advantage of this powerful toolset to build the future of Lightning-powered gaming.

Let’s explore how LNbits transforms payment processing and why it’s quickly becoming a must-have for game developers working in the Bitcoin space.

Overview of Chain Duel

Chain Duel is a unique Lightning Network-inspired game that reimagines the classic snake game with a competitive twist, integrating real-time payments. Two players face off in real-time, racing to "catch" blocks and extend their chains. Each block added to the chain represents Proof of Work, and the player with the most Proof of Work wins the duel. The stakes are high, as the game represents satoshis (small units of Bitcoin) as points, with the winner taking home the prize.

The game is designed to be Lightning-native, meaning all payments within Chain Duel are processed through the Lightning Network. This ensures fast payments, reducing latency and making gameplay smooth. With additional features like practice mode, tournaments and highscores, Chain Duel creates an engaging and competitive environment for Bitcoin enthusiasts and gamers alike.

One of the standout aspects of Chain Duel is its deeper integration with the Lightning Network even at a design level. For example, actual Bitcoin blocks can appear on screen during matches, offering bonus points when mined in sync with the game. The game’s current version, still in beta, has already drawn attention within the Bitcoin community, gaining momentum at conferences and with a growing user base through its social networks. With its innovative combination of gaming, the Lightning Network, and competitive play, Chain Duel offers a glimpse into the future of Lightning-based gaming.

How LNbits is Used in Chain Duel

Seamless Integration with LNbits

At the core of Chain Duel’s efficient payment processing is LNbits, which handles in-game transactions smoothly and reliably. Chain Duel uses the LNbits LNURL-pay and LNURL-withdraw extensions to manage payments and rewards between players. Before each match, players send satoshis using LNURL-pay, which generates a static QR code or link for making the payment. LNURL-pay allows users to attach a note to the payment, which Chain Duel creatively uses as a way to insert the player name in-game. The simplicity of LNURL-pay ensures that users can quickly and easily initiate games, with fresh invoices being issued for every game. When players win, LNURL-withdraw enables them to seamlessly pull their earnings from the game, providing a quick payout system.

These extensions make it easy for players to send and receive Bitcoin with minimal latency, fully leveraging the power of the Lightning Network for fast and low-cost payments. The flexibility of LNbits’ tools means that game developers don’t need to worry about building custom payment systems from scratch—they can rely on LNbits to handle all financial transactions with precision.

Lightning Tournaments

Chain Duel tournaments leverage LNbits and its LNURL extensions to create a seamless and efficient experience for players. In Chain Duel tournaments, LNbits plays a crucial role in managing the overall economics. LNbits facilitates the generation of LNURL QR codes that participants can scan to register quickly or withdraw their winnings. LNbits allows Chain Duel to automatically handle multiple registrations through LNURL-pay, enabling players to participate in the tournament without additional steps. The Lightning Network's speed ensures that these payments occur in real-time, reducing wait times and allowing for a smoother flow in-game.

Splitting Payments

LNbits further simplifies revenue-sharing within Chain Duel. This feature allows the game to automatically split the satoshis sent by players into different shares for the game’s developer, designer, and host. Each time a payment is made to join a match, LNbits is used to automattically pay each of the contributors, according to pre-defined rules. This automated process ensures that everyone involved in the development and running of the game gets their fair share without manual intervention or complex bookkeeping.

Nostr Integration

Chain Duel also integrates with Nostr, a decentralized protocol for social interactions. Players can join games using "Zaps", small tips or micropayments sent over the Lightning Network within the Nostr ecosystem. Through NIP-57, which enables Nostr clients to request Zap invoices, players can use LNURL-pay enabled Zaps to register in P2P matches, further enhancing the Chain Duel experience. By using Zaps as a way to register in-game, Chain Duel automates the process of fetching players' identity, creating a more competitive and social experience. Zaps are public on the Nostr network, further expanding Chain Duel's games social reach and community engagement.

Game and Payment Synchronization

One of the key reasons Chain Duel developers chose LNbits is its powerful API that connects directly with the game’s logic. LNbits allows the game to synchronize payments with gameplay in real-time, providing a seamless experience where payments are an integrated part of the gaming mechanics.

With LNbits managing both the payment process and the Lightning Network’s complex infrastructure, Chain Duel developers are free to concentrate on enhancing the competitive and Lightning Network-related aspects of the game. This division of tasks is essential for streamlining development while still providing an innovative in-game payment experience that is deeply integrated with the Bitcoin network.

LNbits proves to be an indispensable tool for Chain Duel, enabling smooth in-game transactions, real-time revenue sharing, and seamless integration with Nostr. For developers looking to build Lightning-powered games, LNbits offers a powerful suite of tools that handle everything from micropayments to payment distribution—ensuring that the game's focus remains on fun and competition rather than complex payment systems.

LNBits facilitating Education and Adoption

This system contributes to educating users on the power of the Lightning Network. Since Chain Duel directly involve real satoshis and LNURL for registration and rewards, players actively experience how Lightning can facilitate fast, cheap, and permissionless payments. By incorporating LNbits into Chain Duel, the game serves as an educational tool that introduces users to the benefits of the Lightning Network. Players gain direct experience using Lightning wallets and LNURL, helping them understand how these tools work in real-world scenarios. The near-instant nature of these payments showcases the power of Lightning in a practical context, highlighting its potential beyond just gaming. Players are encouraged to set up wallets, explore the Lightning ecosystem, and eventually become familiar with Bitcoin and Lightning technology. By integrating LNbits, Chain Duel transforms in-game payments into a learning opportunity, making Bitcoin and Lightning more approachable for users worldwide.

Tools for Developers

LNbits is a versatile, open-source platform designed to simplify and enhance Bitcoin Lightning Network wallet management. For developers, particularly those working on Lightning-native games like Chain Duel, LNbits offers an invaluable set of tools that allow for seamless integration of Lightning payments without the need to build complex custom solutions from scratch. LNbits is built on a modular and extensible architecture, enabling developers to easily add or create functionality suited to their project’s needs.

Extensible Architecture for Customization

At the core of LNbits is a simple yet powerful wallet system that developers can access across multiple devices. What makes LNbits stand out is its extensible nature—everything beyond the core functionality is implemented as an extension. This modular approach allows users to customize their LNbits installation by enabling or building extensions to suit specific use cases. This flexibility is perfect for developers who want to add Lightning-based services to their games or apps without modifying the core codebase.

• Extensions for Every Use Case
  LNbits comes with a wide array of built-in extensions created by contributors, offering various services that can be plugged into your application. Some popular extensions include:
• Faucets: Distribute small amounts of Bitcoin to users for testing or promotional purposes.
• Paylinks: Create shareable links for instant payments.
• Points-of-sale (PoS): Allow users to set up shareable payment terminals.
• Paywalls: Charge users to access content or services.
• Event tickets: Sell tickets for events directly via Lightning payments.
• Games and services: From dice games to jukeboxes, LNbits offers entertaining and functional tools.

These ready-made solutions can be adapted and used in different gaming scenarios, for example in Chain Duel, where LNURL extensions are used for in game payments. The extensibility ensures developers can focus on building engaging gameplay while LNbits handles payment flows.

Developer-Friendly Customization

LNbits isn't just a plug-and-play platform. Developers can extend its functionality even further by creating their own extensions, giving full control over how the wallet system is integrated into their games or apps. The architecture is designed to make it easy for developers to build on top of the platform, adding custom features for specific requirements.

Flexible Funding Source Management

LNbits also offers flexibility in terms of managing funding sources. Developers can easily connect LNbits to various Lightning Network node implementations, enabling seamless transitions between nodes or even different payment systems. This allows developers to switch underlying funding sources with minimal effort, making LNbits adaptable for games that may need to scale quickly or rely on different payment infrastructures over time.

A Lean Core System for Maximum Efficiency

Thanks to its modular architecture, LNbits maintains a lean core system. This reduces complexity and overhead, allowing developers to implement only the features they need. By avoiding bloated software, LNbits ensures faster transactions and less resource consumption, which is crucial in fast-paced environments like Chain Duel where speed and efficiency are paramount.

LNbits is designed with developers in mind, offering a suite of tools and a flexible infrastructure that makes integrating Bitcoin payments easy. Whether you’re developing games, apps, or any service that requires Lightning Network transactions, LNbits is a powerful, open-source solution that can be adapted to fit your project.

Conclusion

Chain Duel stands at the forefront of Lightning-powered gaming, combining the excitement of competitive PvP with the speed and efficiency of the Lightning Network. With LNbits handling all in-game payments, from microtransactions to automated revenue splits, developers can focus entirely on crafting an engaging gaming experience. LNbits’ powerful API and extensions make it easy to manage real-time payments, removing the complexity of building payment infrastructure from scratch.

LNbits isn’t just a payment tool — it’s a flexible, developer-friendly platform that can be adapted to any gaming model. Whether you're developing a fast-paced PvP game like Chain Duel or any project requiring seamless Lightning Network integration, LNbits provides the ideal solution for handling instant payments with minimal overhead.

For developers interested in pushing the boundaries of Lightning-powered gaming, Chain Duel is a great example of how LNbits can enhance your game, letting you focus on the fun while LNbits manages real-time transactions.

Find out more

Curious about how Lightning Network payments can power your next game? Explore the following:

• Learn more about Chain Duel: Chain Duel
• Learn how LNbits can simplify payment handling in your project: LNbits
• Dive into decentralized communication with Nostr: Nostr

@ f977c464:32fcbe00

Güneşin kaybolmasının üçüncü günü, saat öğlen on ikiyi yirmi geçiyordu. Trenin kalkmasına yaklaşık iki saat vardı. Hepimiz perondaydık. Valizlerimiz, kolilerimiz, renk renk ve biçimsiz çantalarımızla yan yana dizilmiş, kısa aralıklarla tepemizdeki devasa saati kontrol ediyorduk.

Ama ne kadar dik bakarsak bakalım zaman bir türlü istediğimiz hızla ilerlemiyordu. Herkes birkaç dakika sürmesi gereken alelade bir doğa olayına sıkışıp kalmış, karanlıktan sürünerek çıkmayı deniyordu.

Bekleme salonuna doğru döndüm. Nefesimden çıkan buharın arkasında, kalın taş duvarları ve camlarıyla morg kadar güvenli ve soğuk duruyordu. Cesetleri o yüzden bunun gibi yerlere taşımaya başlamışlardı. Demek insanların bütün iyiliği başkaları onları gördüğü içindi ki gündüzleri gecelerden daha karanlık olduğunda hemen birbirlerinin gırtlağına çökmüş, böğürlerinde delikler açmış, gözlerini oyup kafataslarını parçalamışlardı.

İstasyonun ışığı titrediğinde karanlığın enseme saplandığını hissettim. Eğer şimdi, böyle kalabalık bir yerde elektrik kesilse başımıza ne gelirdi?

İçerideki askerlerden biri bakışlarımı yakalayınca yeniden saate odaklanmış gibi yaptım. Sadece birkaç dakika geçmişti.

“Tarlalarım gitti. Böyle boyum kadar ayçiçeği doluydu. Ah, hepsi ölüp gidiyor. Afitap’ın çiçekleri de gi-”

“Dayı, Allah’ını seversen sus. Hepimizi yakacaksın şimdi.”

Karanlıkta durduğunda, görünmez olmayı istemeye başlıyordun. Kimse seni görmemeli, nefesini bile duymamalıydı. Kimsenin de ayağının altında dolaşmamalıydın; gelip kazayla sana çarpmamalılar, takılıp sendelememeliydiler. Yoksa aslında hedefi sen olmadığın bir öfke gürlemeye başlar, yaşadığın ilk şoku ve acıyı silerek üstünden geçerdi.

İlk konuşan, yaşlıca bir adam, kafasında kasketi, nasırlı ellerine hohluyordu. Gözleri ve burnu kızarmıştı. Güneşin kaybolması onun için kendi başına bir felaket değildi. Hayatına olan pratik yansımalarından korkuyordu olsa olsa. Bir anının kaybolması, bu yüzden çoktan kaybettiği birinin biraz daha eksilmesi. Hayatta kalmasını gerektiren sebepler azalırken, hayatta kalmasını sağlayacak kaynaklarını da kaybediyordu.

Onu susturan delikanlıysa atkısını bütün kafasına sarmış, sakalı ve yüzünün derinliklerine kaçmış gözleri dışında bedeninin bütün parçalarını gizlemeye çalışıyordu. İşte o, güneşin kaybolmasının tam olarak ne anlama geldiğini anlamamış olsa bile, dehşetini olduğu gibi hissedebilenlerdendi.

Güneşin onlardan alındıktan sonra kime verileceğini sormuyorlardı. En başta onlara verildiğinde de hiçbir soru sormamışlardı zaten.

İki saat ne zaman geçer?

Midemin üstünde, sağ tarafıma doğru keskin bir acı hissettim. Karaciğerim. Gözlerimi yumdum. Yanımda biri metal bir nesneyi yere bıraktı. Bir kafesti. İçerisindeki kartalın ıslak kokusu burnuma ulaşmadan önce bile biliyordum bunu.

“Yeniden mi?” diye sordu bana kartal. Kanatları kanlı. Zamanın her bir parçası tüylerinin üstüne çöreklenmişti. Gagası bir şey, tahminen et parçası geveliyor gibi hareket ediyordu. Eski anılar kolay unutulmazmış. Şu anda kafesinin kalın parmaklıklarının ardında olsa da bunun bir aldatmaca olduğunu bir tek ben biliyordum. Her an kanatlarını iki yana uzatıverebilir, hava bu hareketiyle dalgalanarak kafesi esneterek hepimizi içine alacak kadar genişleyebilir, parmaklıklar önce ayaklarımızın altına serilir gibi gözükebilir ama aslında hepimizin üstünde yükselerek tepemize çökebilirdi.

Aşağıya baktım. Tahtalarla zapt edilmiş, hiçbir yere gidemeyen ama her yere uzanan tren rayları. Atlayıp koşsam… Çantam çok ağırdı. Daha birkaç adım atamadan, kartal, suratını bedenime gömerdi.

“Bu sefer farklı,” diye yanıtladım onu. “Yeniden diyemezsin. Tekrarladığım bir şey değil bu. Hatta bir hata yapıyormuşum gibi tonlayamazsın da. Bu sefer, insanların hak etmediğini biliyorum.”

“O zaman daha vahim. Süzme salaksın demektir.”

“İnsanların hak etmemesi, insanlığın hak etmediği anlamına gelmez ki.”

Az önce göz göze geldiğim genççe ama çökük asker hâlâ bana bakıyordu. Bir kartalla konuştuğumu anlamamıştı şüphesiz. Yanımdakilerden biriyle konuştuğumu sanmış olmalıydı. Ama konuştuğum kişiye bakmıyordum ona göre. Çekingence kafamı eğmiştim. Bir kez daha göz göze geldiğimizde içerideki diğer iki askere bir şeyler söyledi, onlar dönüp beni süzerken dışarı çıktı.

Yanımızdaki, az önce konuşan iki adam da şaşkınlıkla bir bana bir kartala bakıyordu.

“Yalnız bu sefer kalbin de kırılacak, Prometheus,” dedi kartal, bana. “Belki son olur. Biliyorsun, bir sürü soruna neden oluyor bu yaptıkların.”

Beni koruyordu sözde. En çok kanıma dokunan buydu. Kasıklarımın üstüne oturmuş, kanlı suratının ardında gözleri parlarken attığı çığlık kulaklarımda titremeye devam ediyordu. Bu tabloda kimsenin kimseyi düşündüğü yoktu. Kartalın, yanımızdaki adamların, artık arkama kadar gelmiş olması gereken askerin, tren raylarının, geçmeyen saatlerin…

Arkamı döndüğümde, asker sahiden oradaydı. Zaten öyle olması gerekiyordu; görmüştüm bunu, biliyordum. Kehanetler… Bir şeyler söylüyordu ama ağzı oynarken sesi çıkmıyordu. Yavaşlamış, kendisini saatin akışına uydurmuştu. Havada donan tükürüğünden anlaşılıyordu, sinirliydi. Korktuğu için olduğunu biliyordum. Her seferinde korkmuşlardı. Beni unutmuş olmaları işlerini kolaylaştırmıyordu. Sadece yeni bir isim vermelerine neden oluyordu. Bu seferkiyle beni lanetleyecekleri kesinleşmişti.

Olması gerekenle olanların farklı olması ne kadar acınasıydı. Olması gerekenlerin doğasının kötücül olmasıysa bir yerde buna dayanıyordu.

“Salaksın,” dedi kartal bana. Zamanı aşan bir çığlık. Hepimizin önüne geçmişti ama kimseyi durduramıyordu.

Sonsuzluğa kaç tane iki saat sıkıştırabilirsiniz?

Ben bir tane bile sıkıştıramadım.

Çantama uzanıyordum. Asker de sırtındaki tüfeğini indiriyordu. Benim acelem yoktu, onunsa eli ayağı birbirine dolaşıyordu. Oysaki her şey tam olması gerektiği anda olacaktı. Kehanet başkasının parmaklarının ucundaydı.

Güneş, bir tüfeğin patlamasıyla yeryüzüne doğdu.

Rayların üzerine serilmiş göğsümün ortasından, bir çantanın içinden.

Not: Bu öykü ilk olarak 2021 yılında Esrarengiz Hikâyeler'de yayımlanmıştır.

@ 3bf0c63f:aefa459d

O Planetinha

Fumaça verde me entrando pelas narinas e um coro desafinado fazia uma base melódica.

nos confins da galáxia havia um planetinha isolado. Era um planeta feliz.

O homem vestido de mago começava a aparecer por detrás da fumaça verde.

O planetinha recebeu três presentes, mas o seu habitante, o homem, estava num estado de confusão tão grande que ameaçava estragá-los. Os homens já havia escravizado o primeiro presente, a vida; lutavam contra o segundo presente, a morte; e havia alguns que achavam que deviam destruir totalmente o terceiro, o amor, e com isto levar a desordem total ao pobre planetinha perdido, que se chamava Terra.

O coro desafinado entrou antes do "Terra" cantando várias vezes, como se imitasse um eco, "terra-terra-terraaa". Depois de uma pausa dramática, o homem vestido de mago voltou a falar.

Terra, nossa nave mãe.

Neste momento eu me afastei. À frente do palco onde o mago e seu coral faziam apelos à multidão havia vários estandes cobertos com a tradicional armação de quatro pernas e lona branca. Em todos os cantos da praça havia gente, gente dos mais variados tipos. Visitantes curiosos que se aproximavam atraídos pela fumaça verde e as barraquinhas, gente que aproveitava o movimento para vender doces sem pagar imposto, casais que se abraçavam de pé para espantar o frio, os tradicionais corredores que faziam seu cooper, gente cheia de barba e vestida para imitar os hippies dos anos 60 e vender colares estendidos no chão, transeuntes novos e velhos, vestidos como baladeiros ou como ativistas do ônibus grátis, grupos de ciclistas entusiastas.

O mago fazia agora apelos para que nós, os homens, habitantes do isolado planetinha, passássemos a ver o planetinha, nossa nave mãe, como um todo, e adquiríssemos a consciência de que ele estava entrando em maus lençóis. A idéia, reforçada pela logomarca do evento, era que parássemos de olhar só para a nossa vida e pensássemos no planeta.

A logomarca do evento, um desenho estilizado do planeta Terra, nada tinha a ver com seu nome: "Festival Andando de Bem com a Vida", mas havia sido ali colocada estrategicamente pelos organizadores, de quem parecia justamente sair a mensagem dita pelo mago.

Aquela multidão de pessoas que, assim como eu, tinham suas próprias preocupações, não podiam ver o quadro caótico que formavam, cada uma com seus atos isolados, ali naquela praça isolada, naquele planeta isolado. Quando o hippie barbudo, quase um Osho, assustava um casal para tentar vender-lhes um colar, a quantidade de caos que isto acrescentava à cena era gigantesca. Por um segundo, pude ver, como se estivesse de longe e acima, com toda a pretensão que este estado imaginativo carrega, a cena completa do caos.

---

Uma nave-mãe, dessas de ficção científica, habitada por milhões de pessoas, seguia no espaço sem rumo, e sem saber que logo à frente um longo precipício espacial a esperava, para a desgraça completa sua e de seus habitantes.

Acostumados àquela nave tanto quanto outrora estiveram acostumados à sua terra natal, os homens viviam as próprias vidas sem nem se lembrar que estavam vagando pelo espaço. Ninguém sabia quem estava conduzindo a nave, e ninguém se importava.

No final do filme descobre-se que era a soma completa do caos que cada habitante produzia, com seus gestos egoístas e incapazes de levar em conta a totalidade, é que determinava a direção da nave-mãe. O efeito, no entanto, não era imediato, como nunca é. Havia gente de verdade encarregada de conduzir a nave, mas era uma gente bêbada, mau-caráter, que vivia brigando pelo controle da nave e o poder que isto lhes dava. Poder, status, dinheiro!

Essa gente bêbada era atraída até ali pela corrupção das instituições e da moral comum que, no fundo no fundo, era causada pelo egoísmo da população, através de um complexo -- mas que no filme aparece simplificado pela ação individual de um magnata do divertimento público -- processo social.

O homem vestido de mago era mais um agente causador de caos, com sua cena cheia de fumaça e sua roupa estroboscópica, ele achava que estava fazendo o bem ao alertar sua platéia, todos as sextas-feiras, de que havia algo que precisava ser feito, que cada um que estava ali ouvindo era responsável pelo planeta. A sua incapacidade, porém, de explicar o que precisava ser feito só aumentava a angústia geral; a culpa que ele jogava sobre seu público, e que era prontamente aceita e passada em frente, aos familiares e amigos de cada um, atormentava-os diariamente e os impedia de ter uma vida decente no trabalho e em casa. As famílias, estressadas, estavam constantemente brigando e os motivos mais insignificantes eram responsáveis pelas mais horrendas conseqüências.

O mago, que após o show tirava o chapéu entortado e ia tomar cerveja num boteco, era responsável por uma parcela considerável do caos que levava a nave na direção do seu desgraçado fim. No filme, porém, um dos transeuntes que de passagem ouviu um pedaço do discurso do mago despertou em si mesmo uma consiência transformadora e, com poderes sobre-humanos que lhe foram então concedidos por uma ordem iniciática do bem ou não, usando só os seus poderes humanos mesmo, o transeunte -- na primeira versão do filme um homem, na segunda uma mulher -- consegue consertar as instituições e retirar os bêbados da condução da máquina. A questão da moral pública é ignorada para abreviar a trama, já com duas horas e quarenta de duração, mas subentende-se que ela também fora resolvida.

---

No planeta Terra real, que não está indo em direção alguma, preso pela gravidade ao Sol, e onde as pessoas vivem a própria vida porque lhes é impossível viver a dos outros, não têm uma consciência global de nada porque só é possível mesmo ter a consciência delas mesmas, e onde a maioria, de uma maneira ou de outra, está tentando como pode, fazer as coisas direito, o filme é exibido.

Para a maioria dos espectadores, é um filme que evoca reflexões, um filme forte. Por um segundo elas têm o mesmo vislumbre do caos generalizado que eu tive ali naquela praça. Para uma pequena parcela dos espectadores -- entre eles alguns dos que estavam na platéia do mago, o próprio mago, o seguidor do Osho, o casal de duas mulheres e o vendedor de brigadeiros, mas aos quais se somam também críticos de televisão e jornal e gente que fala pelos cotovelos na internet -- o filme é um horror, o filme é uma vulgarização de um problema real e sério, o filme apela para a figura do herói salvador e passa uma mensagem totalmente errada, de que a maioria da população pode continuar vivendo as suas própria vidinhas miseráveis enquanto espera por um herói que vem do Olimpo e os salva da mixórdia que eles mesmos causaram, é um filme que presta um enorme desserviço à causa.

No dia seguinte ao lançamento, num bar meio caro ali perto da praça, numa mesa com oito pessoas, entre elas seis do primeiro grupo e oito do segundo, discute-se se o filme levará ou não o Oscar. Eu estou em casa dormindo e não escuto nada.

@ f977c464:32fcbe00

Kendisini aynada ilk defa gördüğü o gün, diğerleri gibi olduğunu anlamıştı. Oysaki her insan biricik olmalıydı. Sözgelimi sinirlendiğinde bir kaşı diğerinden birkaç milimetre daha az çatılabilirdi veya sevindiğinde dudağı ona has bir açıyla dalgalanabilirdi. Hatta bunların hiçbiri mümkün değilse, en azından, gözlerinin içinde sadece onun sahip olabileceği bir ışık parlayabilirdi. Çok sıradan, öyle sıradan ki kimsenin fark etmediği o milyonlarca minik şeyden herhangi biri. Ne olursa.

Ama yansımasına bakarken bunların hiçbirini bulamadı ve diğer günlerden hiç de farklı başlamamış o gün, işe gitmek için vagonunun gelmesini beklediği alelade bir metro istasyonunda, içinde kaybolduğu illüzyon dağılmaya başladı.

İlk önce derisi döküldü. Tam olarak dökülmedi aslında, daha çok kıvılcımlara dönüşüp bedeninden fırlamış ve bir an sonra sönerek külleşmiş, havada dağılmıştı. Ardında da, kaybolmadan hemen önce, kısa süre için hayal meyal görülebilen, bir ruhun yok oluşuna ağıt yakan rengârenk peri cesetleri bırakmıştı. Beklenenin aksine, havaya toz kokusu yayıldı.

Dehşete düştü elbette. Dehşete düştüler. Panikle üstlerini yırtan 50 işçi. Her şeyin sebebiyse o vagon.

Saçları da döküldü. Her tel, yere varmadan önce, her santimde ikiye ayrıla ayrıla yok oldu.

Bütün yüzeylerin mat olduğu, hiçbir şeyin yansımadığı, suyun siyah aktığı ve kendine ancak kameralarla bakabildiğin bir dünyada, vagonun içine yerleştirilmiş bir aynadan ilk defa kendini görmek.

Gözlerinin akları buharlaşıp havada dağıldı, mercekleri boşalan yeri doldurmak için eriyip yayıldı. Gerçeği görmemek için yaratılmış, bu yüzden görmeye hazır olmayan ve hiç olmayacak gözler.

Her şeyin o anda sona erdiğini sanabilirdi insan. Derin bir karanlık ve ölüm. Görmenin görmek olduğu o anın bitişi.

---

Ben geldiğimde ölmüşlerdi.

Yani bozulmuşlardı demek istiyorum.

Belleklerini yeni taşıyıcılara takmam mümkün olmadı. Fiziksel olarak kusursuz durumdaydılar, olmayanları da tamir edebilirdim ama tüm o hengamede kendilerini baştan programlamış ve girdilerini modifiye etmişlerdi.

Belleklerden birini masanın üzerinden ileriye savurdu. Hınca hınç dolu bir barda oturuyorlardı. O ve arkadaşı.

Sırf şu kendisini insan sanan androidler travma geçirip delirmesin diye neler yapıyoruz, insanın aklı almıyor.

Eliyle arkasını işaret etti.

Polislerin söylediğine göre biri vagonun içerisine ayna yerleştirmiş. Bu zavallılar da kapı açılıp bir anda yansımalarını görünce kafayı kırmışlar.

Arkadaşı bunların ona ne hissettirdiğini sordu. Yani o kadar bozuk, insan olduğunu sanan androidi kendilerini parçalamış olarak yerde görmek onu sarsmamış mıydı?

Hayır, sonuçta belirli bir amaç için yaratılmış şeyler onlar. Kaliteli bir bilgisayarım bozulduğunda üzülürüm çünkü parasını ben vermişimdir. Bunlarsa devletin. Bana ne ki?

Arkadaşı anlayışla kafasını sallayıp suyundan bir yudum aldı. Kravatını biraz gevşetti.

Bira istemediğinden emin misin?

İstemediğini söyledi. Sahi, neden deliriyordu bu androidler?

Basit. Onların yapay zekâlarını kodlarken bir şeyler yazıyorlar. Yazılımcılar. Biliyorsun, ben donanımdayım. Bunlar da kendilerini insan sanıyorlar. Tiplerine bak.

Sesini alçalttı.

Arabalarda kaza testi yapılan mankenlere benziyor hepsi. Ağızları burunları bile yok ama şu geldiğimizden beri sakalını düzeltip duruyor mesela. Hayır, hepsi de diğerleri onun sakalı varmış sanıyor, o manyak bir şey.

Arkadaşı bunun delirmeleriyle bağlantısını çözemediğini söyledi. O da normal sesiyle konuşmaya devam etti.

Anlasana, aynayı falan ayırt edemiyor mercekleri. Lönk diye kendilerini görüyorlar. Böyle, olduğu gibi...

Nedenmiş peki? Ne gerek varmış?

Ne bileyim be abicim! Ahiret soruları gibi.

Birasına bakarak dalıp gitti. Sonra masaya abanarak arkadaşına iyice yaklaştı. Bulanık, bir tünelin ucundaki biri gibi, şekli şemalı belirsiz bir adam.

Ben seni nereden tanıyorum ki ulan? Kimsin sen?

Belleği makineden çıkardılar. İki kişiydiler. Soruşturmadan sorumlu memurlar.

─ Baştan mı başlıyoruz, diye sordu belleği elinde tutan ilk memur.

─ Bir kere daha deneyelim ama bu sefer direkt aynayı sorarak başla, diye cevapladı ikinci memur.

─ Bence de. Yeterince düzgün çalışıyor.

Simülasyon yüklenirken, ayakta, biraz arkada duran ve alnını kaşıyan ikinci memur sormaktan kendisini alamadı:

─ Bu androidleri niye böyle bir olay yerine göndermişler ki? Belli tost olacakları. İsraf. Gidip biz baksak aynayı kırıp delilleri mahvetmek zorunda da kalmazlar.

Diğer memur sandalyesinde hafifçe dönecek oldu, o sırada soruyu bilgisayarın hoparlöründen teknisyen cevapladı.

Hangi işimizde bir yamukluk yok ki be abi.

---

Ama bir son değildi. Üstlerindeki tüm illüzyon dağıldığında ve çıplak, cinsiyetsiz, birbirinin aynı bedenleriyle kaldıklarında sıra dünyaya gelmişti.

Yere düştüler. Elleri -bütün bedeni gibi siyah turmalinden, boğumları çelikten- yere değdiği anda, metronun zemini dağıldı.

Yerdeki karolar öncesinde beyazdı ve çok parlaktı. Tepelerindeki floresan, ışığını olduğu gibi yansıtıyor, tek bir lekenin olmadığı ve tek bir tozun uçmadığı istasyonu aydınlatıyorlardı.

Duvarlara duyurular asılmıştı. Örneğin, yarın akşam kültür merkezinde 20.00’da başlayacak bir tekno blues festivalinin cıvıl cıvıl afişi vardı. Onun yanında daha geniş, sarı puntolu harflerle yazılmış, yatay siyah kesiklerle çerçevesi çizilmiş, bir platformdan düşen çöp adamın bulunduğu “Dikkat! Sarı bandı geçmeyin!” uyarısı. Biraz ilerisinde günlük resmi gazete, onun ilerisinde bir aksiyon filminin ve başka bir romantik komedi filminin afişleri, yapılacakların ve yapılmayacakların söylendiği küçük puntolu çeşitli duyurular... Duvar uzayıp giden bir panoydu. On, on beş metrede bir tekrarlanıyordu.

Tüm istasyonun eni yüz metre kadar. Genişliği on metre civarı.

Önlerinde, açık kapısından o mendebur aynanın gözüktüğü vagon duruyordu. Metro, istasyona sığmayacak kadar uzundu. Bir kılıcın keskinliğiyle uzanıyor ama yer yer vagonların ek yerleriyle bölünüyordu.

Hiçbir vagonda pencere olmadığı için metronun içi, içlerindekiler meçhuldü.

Sonrasında karolar zerrelerine ayrılarak yükseldi. Floresanın ışığında her yeri toza boğdular ve ortalığı gri bir sisin altına gömdüler. Çok kısa bir an. Afişleri dalgalandırmadılar. Dalgalandırmaya vakitleri olmadı. Yerlerinden söküp aldılar en fazla. Işık birkaç kere sönüp yanarak direndi. Son kez söndüğünde bir daha geri gelmedi.

Yine de etraf aydınlıktı. Kırmızı, her yere eşit dağılan soluk bir ışıkla.

Yer tamamen tele dönüşmüştü. Altında çapraz hatlarla desteklenmiş demir bir iskelet. Işık birkaç metreden daha fazla aşağıya uzanamıyordu. Sonsuzluğa giden bir uçurum.

Duvarın yerini aynı teller ve demir iskelet almıştı. Arkasında, birbirine vidalarla tutturulmuş demir plakalardan oluşan, üstünden geçen boruların ek yerlerinden bazen ince buharların çıktığı ve bir süre asılı kaldıktan sonra ağır, yağlı bir havayla sürüklendiği bir koridor.

Diğer tarafta paslanmış, pencerelerindeki camlar kırıldığı için demir plakalarla kapatılmış külüstür bir metro. Kapının karşısındaki aynadan her şey olduğu gibi yansıyordu.

---

Bir konteynırın içini andıran bir evde, gerçi gayet de birbirine eklenmiş konteynırlardan oluşan bir şehirde “andıran” demek doğru olmayacağı için düpedüz bir konteynırın içinde, masaya mum görüntüsü vermek için koyulmuş, yarı katı yağ atıklarından şekillendirilmiş kütleleri yakmayı deniyordu. Kafasında hayvan kıllarından yapılmış grili siyahlı bir peruk. Aynı kıllardan kendisine gür bir bıyık da yapmıştı.

Üstünde mavi çöp poşetlerinden yapılmış, kravatlı, şık bir takım.

Masanın ayakları yerine oradan buradan çıkmış parçalar konulmuştu: bir arabanın şaft mili, üst üste konulmuş ve üstünde yazı okunamayan tenekeler, boş kitaplar, boş gazete balyaları... Hiçbir şeye yazı yazılmıyordu, gerek yoktu da zaten çünkü merkez veri bankası onları fark ettirmeden, merceklerden giren veriyi sentezleyerek insanlar için dolduruyordu. Yani, androidler için. Farklı şekilde isimlendirmek bir fark yaratacaksa.

Onların mercekleri için değil. Bağlantıları çok önceden kopmuştu.

─ Hayatım, sofra hazır, diye bağırdı yatak odasındaki karısına.

Sofrada tabak yerine düz, bardak yerine bükülmüş, çatal ve bıçak yerine sivriltilmiş plakalar.

Karısı salonun kapısında durakladı ve ancak kulaklarına kadar uzanan, kocasınınkine benzeyen, cansız, ölü hayvanların kıllarından ibaret peruğunu eliyle düzeltti. Dudağını, daha doğrusu dudağının olması gereken yeri koyu kırmızı bir yağ tabakasıyla renklendirmeyi denemişti. Biraz da yanaklarına sürmüştü.

─ Nasıl olmuş, diye sordu.

Sesi tek düzeydi ama hafif bir neşe olduğunu hissettiğinize yemin edebilirdiniz.

Üzerinde, çöp poşetlerinin içini yazısız gazete kağıtlarıyla doldurarak yaptığı iki parça giysi.

─ Çok güzelsin, diyerek kravatını düzeltti kocası.

─ Sen de öylesin, sevgilim.

Yaklaşıp kocasını öptü. Kocası da onu. Sonra nazikçe elinden tutarak, sandalyesini geriye çekerek oturmasına yardım etti.

Sofrada yemek niyetine hiçbir şey yoktu. Gerek de yoktu zaten.

Konteynırın kapısı gürültüyle tekmelenip içeri iki memur girene kadar birbirlerine öyküler anlattılar. O gün neler yaptıklarını. İşten erken çıkıp yemyeşil çimenlerde gezdiklerini, uçurtma uçurduklarını, kadının nasıl o elbiseyi bulmak için saatlerce gezip yorulduğunu, kocasının kısa süreliğine işe dönüp nasıl başarılı bir hamleyle yaşanan krizi çözdüğünü ve kadının yanına döndükten sonra, alışveriş merkezinde oturdukları yeni dondurmacının dondurmalarının ne kadar lezzetli olduğunu, boğazlarının ağrımasından korktuklarını...

Akşam film izleyebilirlerdi, televizyonda -boş ve mat bir plaka- güzel bir film oynayacaktı.

İki memur. Çıplak bedenleriyle birbirinin aynı. Ellerindeki silahları onlara doğrultmuşlardı. Mum ışığında, tertemiz bir örtünün serili olduğu masada, bardaklarında şaraplarla oturan ve henüz sofranın ortasındaki hindiye dokunmamış çifti gördüklerinde bocaladılar.

Hiç de androidlere bilinçli olarak zarar verebilecek gibi gözükmüyorlardı.

─ Sessiz kalma hakkına sahipsiniz, diye bağırdı içeri giren ikinci memur. Söylediğiniz her şey...

Cümlesini bitiremedi. Yatak odasındaki, masanın üzerinden gördüğü o şey, onunla aynı hareketleri yapan android, yoksa, bir aynadaki yansıması mıydı?

Bütün illüzyon o anda dağılmaya başladı.

Not: Bu öykü ilk olarak 2020 yılında Esrarengiz Hikâyeler'de yayımlanmıştır.

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

Embarking on the journey of operating your own Lightning node on the Bitcoin Layer 2 network is more than just a tech-savvy endeavor; it's a step into a realm of financial autonomy and cutting-edge innovation. By running a node, you become a vital part of a revolutionary movement that's reshaping how we think about money and digital transactions. This role not only offers a unique perspective on blockchain technology but also places you at the heart of a community dedicated to decentralization and network resilience. Beyond the technicalities, it's about embracing a new era of digital finance, where you contribute directly to the network's security, efficiency, and growth, all while gaining personal satisfaction and potentially lucrative rewards.

In essence, running your own Lightning node is a powerful way to engage with the forefront of blockchain technology, assert financial independence, and contribute to a more decentralized and efficient Bitcoin network. It's an adventure that offers both personal and communal benefits, from gaining in-depth tech knowledge to earning a place in the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency.

Running your own Lightning node for the Bitcoin Layer 2 network can be an empowering and beneficial endeavor. Here are 10 reasons why you might consider taking on this task:

1. Direct Contribution to Decentralization: Operating a node is a direct action towards decentralizing the Bitcoin network, crucial for its security and resistance to control or censorship by any single entity.

2. Financial Autonomy: Owning a node gives you complete control over your financial transactions on the network, free from reliance on third-party services, which can be subject to fees, restrictions, or outages.

3. Advanced Network Participation: As a node operator, you're not just a passive participant but an active player in shaping the network, influencing its efficiency and scalability through direct involvement.

4. Potential for Higher Revenue: With strategic management and optimal channel funding, your node can become a preferred route for transactions, potentially increasing the routing fees you can earn.

5. Cutting-Edge Technological Engagement: Running a node puts you at the forefront of blockchain and bitcoin technology, offering insights into future developments and innovations.

6. Strengthened Network Security: Each new node adds to the robustness of the Bitcoin network, making it more resilient against attacks and failures, thus contributing to the overall security of the ecosystem.

7. Personalized Fee Structures: You have the flexibility to set your own fee policies, which can balance earning potential with the service you provide to the network.

8. Empowerment Through Knowledge: The process of setting up and managing a node provides deep learning opportunities, empowering you with knowledge that can be applied in various areas of blockchain and fintech.

9. Boosting Transaction Capacity: By running a node, you help to increase the overall capacity of the Lightning Network, enabling more transactions to be processed quickly and at lower costs.

10. Community Leadership and Reputation: As an active node operator, you gain recognition within the Bitcoin community, which can lead to collaborative opportunities and a position of thought leadership in the space.

These reasons demonstrate the impactful and transformative nature of running a Lightning node, appealing to those who are deeply invested in the principles of bitcoin and wish to actively shape its future. Jump aboard, and embrace the journey toward full independence. 🐶🐾🫡🚀🚀🚀

@ 8d34bd24:414be32b

I’ve known that there are references to Jesus in the Old Testament. They just don’t use the name Jesus.

Then God said, “Let Us make man in Our image, according to Our likeness; and let them rule over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the sky and over the cattle and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creeps on the earth.” (Genesis 1:26) {emphasis mine}

Notice the references to God in the plural. These are clues to the trinitarian (3 persons in one God) nature of God.

There are also examples of theophanies (preincarnate Jesus) in the Old Testament. These theophanies are frequently referred to as “the angel of the Lord” or “the angel of God.”

But the angel of the Lord called to him from heaven and said, “Abraham, Abraham!” And he said, “Here I am.” He said, “Do not stretch out your hand against the lad, and do nothing to him; for now I know that you fear God, since you have not withheld your son, your only son, from Me.” (Genesis 22:11-12) {emphasis mine}

In this case we know that the “angel of the Lord” is not just an angel because he says, “I know that you fear God, since you have not withheld your son, your only son, from Me,” equating Himself, “Me,” with God. In most cases when an angel appears, the people drop face down in worship, but the angel corrects them and tells them not to worship. When the angel is Jesus, He accepts the worship and in many cases sacrifices as well.

The angel of the Lord appeared to him and said to him, “The Lord is with you, O valiant warrior.” Then Gideon said to him, “O my lord, if the Lord is with us, why then has all this happened to us? … So Gideon said to Him, “If now I have found favor in Your sight, then show me a sign that it is You who speak with me. Please do not depart from here, until I come back to You, and bring out my offering and lay it before You.” And He said, “I will remain until you return.”

Then Gideon went in and prepared a young goat and unleavened bread from an ephah of flour; he put the meat in a basket and the broth in a pot, and brought them out to him under the oak and presented them. The angel of God said to him, “Take the meat and the unleavened bread and lay them on this rock, and pour out the broth.” And he did so. Then the angel of the Lord put out the end of the staff that was in his hand and touched the meat and the unleavened bread; and fire sprang up from the rock and consumed the meat and the unleavened bread. Then the angel of the Lord vanished from his sight. When Gideon saw that he was the angel of the Lord, he said, “Alas, O Lord God! For now I have seen the angel of the Lord face to face.” (Judges 6:12=13a, 17-22) {emphasis mine}

As you can see, Gideon offered an offering. An offering to anyone other than God would be idolatry. Gideon offers a “a young goat and unleavened bread from an ephah of flour,” which is a proper sin offering to God. The angel did not eat the offering, but told Gideon to “Take the meat and the unleavened bread and lay them on this rock … Then the angel of the Lord put out the end of the staff that was in his hand and touched the meat and the unleavened bread; and fire sprang up from the rock and consumed the meat and the unleavened bread. Then the angel of the Lord vanished from his sight.” Gideon’s offering was taken as a burnt offering to God and to angel of the Lord, who is Jesus.

With all of this, look at the verse I read last night:

Who has ascended into heaven and descended?\ Who has gathered the wind in His fists?\ Who has wrapped the waters in His garment?\ Who has established all the ends of the earth?\ What is His name or His son’s name?\ Surely you know! (Proverbs 30:4) {emphasis mine}

Surely this is a passage about Jesus.

This verse says, “Who has ascended into heaven and descended?” The New Testament says about Jesus, “No one has ascended into heaven, but He who descended from heaven: the Son of Man.” (John 3:13)

This verse says, “Who has gathered the wind in His fists?” The New Testament says about Jesus,

And there arose a fierce gale of wind, and the waves were breaking over the boat so much that the boat was already filling up. Jesus Himself was in the stern, asleep on the cushion; and they woke Him and said to Him, “Teacher, do You not care that we are perishing?” And He got up and rebuked the wind and said to the sea, “Hush, be still.” And the wind died down and it became perfectly calm. (Mark 4:37-39) {emphasis mine}

This verse says, “Who has wrapped the waters in His garment?” The New Testament says about Jesus,

And in the fourth watch of the night He came to them, walking on the sea. When the disciples saw Him walking on the sea, they were terrified, and said, “It is a ghost!” And they cried out in fear. But immediately Jesus spoke to them, saying, “Take courage, it is I; do not be afraid.”

Peter said to Him, “Lord, if it is You, command me to come to You on the water.” And He said, “Come!” And Peter got out of the boat, and walked on the water and came toward Jesus. (Matthew 14:25-29) {emphasis mine}

This verse says, “Who has established all the ends of the earth?” The New Testament says about Jesus,

In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God. He was in the beginning with God. All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being. (John 1:1-3) {emphasis mine}

This verse says, “What is His name or His son’s name?” The New Testament says about Jesus,

After being baptized, Jesus came up immediately from the water; and behold, the heavens were opened, and he saw the Spirit of God descending as a dove and lighting on Him, and behold, a voice out of the heavens said, “This is My beloved Son, in whom I am well-pleased. (Matthew 3:16-17) {emphasis mine}

This verse says, “Surely you know!” As New Testament believers we know the Son of God, Jesus Christ. The Bible was pointing to the Son of God long before He came to earth as a baby.

Who has ascended into heaven and descended?\ Who has gathered the wind in His fists?\ Who has wrapped the waters in His garment?\ Who has established all the ends of the earth?\ What is His name or His son’s name?\ Surely you know! (Proverbs 30:4) {emphasis mine}

It doesn’t matter how many times we have already read the Bible. Every time we read it, we can discover new insight and knowledge of God, His eternal plans, and His commands for our lives. God is good.

Trust Jesus.

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

Chef's notes

Serving these two dishes together will create a delightful centerpiece for your Thanksgiving meal, offering a perfect blend of traditional flavors with a homemade touch.

Details

• ⏲️ Prep time: 30 min
• 🍳 Cook time: 1 - 2 hours
• 🍽️ Servings: 4-6

Ingredients

• 1 whole turkey (about 12-14 lbs), thawed and ready to cook
• 1 cup unsalted butter, softened
• 2 tablespoons fresh thyme, chopped
• 2 tablespoons fresh rosemary, chopped
• 2 tablespoons fresh sage, chopped
• Salt and freshly ground black pepper
• 1 onion, quartered
• 1 lemon, halved
• 2-3 cloves of garlic
• Apple and Sage Stuffing
• 1 loaf of crusty bread, cut into cubes
• 2 apples, cored and chopped
• 1 onion, diced
• 2 stalks celery, diced
• 3 cloves garlic, minced
• 1/4 cup fresh sage, chopped
• 1/2 cup unsalted butter
• 2 cups chicken broth
• Salt and pepper, to taste

Directions

1. Preheat the Oven: Set your oven to 325°F (165°C).
2. Prepare the Herb Butter: Mix the softened butter with the chopped thyme, rosemary, and sage. Season with salt and pepper.
3. Prepare the Turkey: Remove any giblets from the turkey and pat it dry. Loosen the skin and spread a generous amount of herb butter under and over the skin.
4. Add Aromatics: Inside the turkey cavity, place the quartered onion, lemon halves, and garlic cloves.
5. Roast: Place the turkey in a roasting pan. Tent with aluminum foil and roast. A general guideline is about 15 minutes per pound, or until the internal temperature reaches 165°F (74°C) at the thickest part of the thigh.
6. Rest and Serve: Let the turkey rest for at least 20 minutes before carving.
7. Next: Apple and Sage Stuffing
8. Dry the Bread: Spread the bread cubes on a baking sheet and let them dry overnight, or toast them in the oven.
9. Cook the Vegetables: In a large skillet, melt the butter and cook the onion, celery, and garlic until soft.
10. Combine Ingredients: Add the apples, sage, and bread cubes to the skillet. Stir in the chicken broth until the mixture is moist. Season with salt and pepper.
11. Bake: Transfer the stuffing to a baking dish and bake at 350°F (175°C) for about 30-40 minutes, until golden brown on top.

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

Testing a brand new YakiHonne native client for iOS. Smooth as butter (not penis butter 🤣🍆🧈) with great visual experience and intuitive navigation. Amazing work by the team behind it! * lists * work

Bold text work!

Images could have used nostr.build instead of raw S3 from us-east-1 region.

Very impressive! You can even save the draft and continue later, before posting the long-form note!

🐶🐾🤯🤯🤯🫂💜

@ 2063cd79:57bd1320

Unit-Bias

Bitcoin hat in der öffentlichen Wahrnehmung und bei Menschen, die sich weniger mit dem Thema befassen, einen sogenannten Unit-Bias, also eine durch Unwissenheit hervorgerufene Voreingenommenheit gegenüber der Einheit "Bitcoin". Das bedeutet, dass viele unerfahrene Anleger//innen und Nutzer//innen der Meinung sind, dass der Besitz eines ganzen bitcoins psychologisch wichtig oder überhaupt nur als solcher möglich ist. Anders ausgedrückt, glauben viele Menschen, sie müssen Bitcoin als Ganzes kaufen, also einen ganzen "physischen" bitcoin, statt kleinerer Bruchstücke. Das lässt den Vermögenswert für die meisten zu teuer aussehen.

Dies ist für Bitcoin insofern ein Problem, als dass viele Menschen sich durch ihre Voreingenommenheit gar nicht mit Bitcoin beschäftigen ("kann ich mir nicht leisten") oder das Gefühl haben, Bitcoin sei zu teuer und deshalb gibt es kein Wertsteigerungspotential mehr ("der Zug ist abgefahren, ich hätte vor sechs Jahren investieren sollen"). Schlimmer noch, als sich nicht mit Bitcoin zu beschäftigen, ist sich dann stattdessen alternativen, "erschwinglicheren" Kryptowährungen zuzuwenden. Dieser Unit-Bias ist allerdings nichts anderes als ein Marketing-, bzw. ein Bildungsproblem. Denn wie wir wissen kann man Bitcoin in 100 Millionen Untereinheiten brechen und in kleinsten Mengen erwerben, verschicken und verkaufen. Doch haben Außenstehende von Begriffen wie Lightning oder Sats meistens noch nie gehört.

Untereinheiten

Doch auch innerhalb der Bitcoin-Szene ist die Unterteilung von Bitcoin in Untereinheiten nicht ganz unumstritten. Denn viele Nutzer//innen sind sich uneinig darüber, was der beste Weg ist, Bitcoins Untereinheiten zu bezeichnen und sogar darzustellen. Dies zeigt sich z.B. darin, dass Apps oft entweder Bitcoin oder Fiat anzeigen, manche Apps aber auch Beträge in Sats darstellen. Dies verlangt aber oft eigene Einstellungen innerhalb der App oder viele Klicks, die die Bedienung und Darstellung eher unhandlich gestalten.

Es gibt verschiedene Lösungsansätze, die dem/der Nutzer//in die ungewohnte Rechnung mit acht Nachkommastellen erleichtern sollen. Denn viele Anwender//innen denken beim Blick in ihre Wallets oft noch in lokalen Fiat-Werten, also in ganzen Einheiten (z.B. Euro oder Dollar) und Hundertsteln (z.B. Cents).

Einige Wallets versuchen diesen Spagat komplett zu umgehen, indem sie vermeiden, Beträge in Fiat darzustellen. Doch auch hier bleibt immer noch das Problem der unhandlichen Darstellung von acht Nachkommastellen, weshalb einige Anbieter einfach zwei Eingabemöglichkeiten bieten und den Betrag in Bitcoin oder Sats automatisch umrechnen.

Doch selbst das Zeichen für Sats ist nicht final geklärt. Es gibt viele verschiedene Vorschläge und Meinungen dazu, welches Symbol genutzt werden sollte. Die meisten Apps, Rechnungen und Sticker schreiben einfach das Wort "Sats" oder "sats" aus. Allerdings ist dies ein Problem, da außerhalb der Bitcoin-Szene niemand weiß, was ein Sat ist. Die meisten Menschen werden mittlerweile von Bitcoin gehört haben, auch wenn sie nicht wissen, wie es funktioniert, was es bedeutet, oder wie man damit umgeht. Doch auch das B Logo mit den Dollarstrichen (₿) werden die meisten Menschen zuordnen können.

Sats hingegen ist ein sehr nischiger Begriff und seine Verwendung noch unbekannter. Oft wird das Blitzsymbol (3 auf der unteren Grafik) verwendet, um Lightning darzustellen und auch das Symbol mit den drei horizontalen Strichen und zwei vertikalen Punkten (4 auf der unteren Grafik), das entfernt an das Dollar-Zeichen erinnern soll ($), erfreut sich immer größerer Beliebtheit. Das Problem dabei ist nur, dass es sich in geschriebener Form nicht, oder nur unzulänglich darstellen lässt: 丰 🤡

Es war lange logisch und notwendig, ganze Bitcoins zur Aufzählung und Bezahlung zu verwenden, da bei der Einführung von Bitcoin sein Geldwert sehr gering war. Es bestand also absolut keine Notwendigkeit dazu, in kleineren Einheiten als Bitcoin zu denken. Einfaches Beispiel: letzte Woche, am 22. Mai, jährte sich der Bitcoin-Pizza-Day zum 13. Mal, also jener Tag an dem Laszlo Hanyecz für zwei Pizza 10.000 bitcoins bezahlte und damit die erste offline Transaktion mit Bitcoin tätigte. 10.000 bitcoins entsprachen zu diesem Zeitpunkt also knapp $40, oder andersrum $1 entsprach 250 bitcoins Es gab also immer noch keine Notwendigkeit, kleinere Einheiten von Bitcoin zu verwenden. Diese Notwendigkeit ergab sich erst, als der Bitcoin und der Dollar Parität erlangten (1 Bitcoin = $1) und spätestens, als Bitcoin die Marke von $100 durchbrach, wurde rechnen in Bitcoin schwieriger.

Fortan überlegte man sich, Bitcoin in kleineren Einheiten darzustellen. Die zwei Möglichkeiten sind der Bit und der Sat. Ein einzelner bitcoin kann in 1.000.000 Bits oder bis zu 100.000.000 Sats unterteilt werden, also 100 Sats = 1 Bit = 0,000001 Bitcoin.

Ein weiterer Grund, weshalb eine Stückelung in bitcoin (der Begriff für einen ganzen physischen bitcoin) schwierig und verwirrend ist, und deshalb viele nach einer alternativen Bezeichnung für Untereinheiten suchten, ist dass darüber hinaus "Bitcoin" zur Beschreibung von zwei Dingen verwendet werden kann: dem monetären Netzwerk (Bitcoin - großes B) und dem monetären Vermögenswert (bitcoin - kleines B).

Bitcoin, der Vermögenswert, ist für diejenigen, die noch nichts damit zu tun hatten, sowohl verwirrend als auch fremd. Denn wie bereits erwähnt, führt der Unit-Bias dazu, dass viele Menschen denken, dass sie es sich nicht leisten können, Bitcoin zu kaufen, oder dass sie den Anschluss verpasst haben. Die Verwendung einer Bepreisung in Bruchteilen würde die Verwirrung über die Benennung des Netzwerks und des Vermögenswerts verringern, aber auch die psychologische Hürde für den Einstieg in Bitcoin senken. Vorausgesetzt, die Benennung ist logisch und intuitiv.

Bits vs. Sats

Wie schon erwähnt, gibt es zwei gängige Untereinheiten von Bitcoin, 1 Bit (= 0,000001 Bitcoin) und 1 Sat (0,00000001 Bitcoin). Seit jeher gibt es Diskussionen darüber, welche der beiden Einheiten für den täglichen Gebrauch die vernünftigere und intuitivere ist.

Die Verwendung von Bits zur Aufzählung von Bitcoin hat einige Vorteile. Ein Bit stellt ein „Bit“ eines Bitcoins dar, also der grundlegendsten und kleinsten Informationseinheit in der Informatik. Den meisten Menschen fällt es einfacher, das Wort „Bit“ mit Bitcoin zu assoziieren und daher verstehen sie eher, dass ein Bit ein Teil eines Bitcoins ist. Ein „Sat“ bedeutet für den Durchschnittsmenschen, wie oben beschrieben, nichts.

Adam Back (CEO von Blockstream und Bitcoin-Legende) ist wahrscheinlich der bekannteste Befürworter von Bits > Sats. Er argumentiert von verschiedenen Richtungen, dass z.B. Bits eine rechnerisch einfachere Variante ist, Untereinheiten von Bitcoin darzustellen, als Sats.

Weiter argumentiert er mit der historischen Entwicklung von Bitcoin, dem Protokoll und seiner Referenz-Implementierung. In den Anfangsjahren wurde in der Bitcoin Core Wallet mit Bits gearbeitet. Außerdem argumentiert er, dass die Verbindung zwischen Bitcoin der Haupteinheit und Bits oder Sats als Untereinheit zumindest semantisch gebrochen werden sollte. Da Bitcoin (im Fall eines weiter steigenden Kurses) als Recheneinheit immer unpraktischer wird, sollte man als mentales Modell auf das Rechenpaar Bits und Sats zurückgreifen - analog zur Darstellung von Dollars und Cents oder Euros und Cents. Dabei stellen die zwei Nachkommastellen eines in Bits angegebenen Preises die Sats dar.

Ganz einfaches Beispiel: Ein Kasten Bier kostet heute etwas 20€, also 0,00079758 Bitcoin. Einfacher dargestellt: 797,58 Bits, also 797 Bits und 58 Sats. “Ein Bitcoin ist zu teuer, aber Sats sind zu viele, klingen billig und verwirrend.” Es ist schwer in Sats zu denken und selbst wenn der Preis von Bitcoin 1 M US Dollar erreicht, ist ein Bit immer noch eine greifbare und günstige Einheit: 1 Bit = 1 US Dollar.

Eines von Adams Hauptargumenten ist, dass Sat als Untereinheit nicht funktioniert, weil es Dust gibt. Das Problem mit Dust besteht darin, dass es nicht möglich ist, Bitcoin unter einem bestimmten Schwellenwert auszugeben. Sein Argument ist, dass der Nutzen einer Einheit abhanden kommt, wenn diese Einheit als kleinste Recheneinheit nicht ausgegeben werden kann. Zugegeben, niemand kann mehr etwas für einen Cent kaufen, aber zumindest ist es technisch nicht unmöglich. Allerdings ist es unmöglich, 1 oder sogar 10 Sats über das Bitcoin-Netzwerk zu senden, ohne Layer-2-Skalierungstechnologien zu verwenden.

Dust

Unter Bitcoin-Dust versteht man eine sehr kleine Menge Bitcoin, typischerweise in kleinen ein- bis zweistelligen Sats-Beträgen, doch auch kommen immer öfter dreistellige Beträge vor. Sie werden Dust oder „Staub“ genannt, weil diese Beträge so gering sind, dass sie oft als unbedeutend und unpraktisch für die Verwendung bei regulären Transaktionen angesehen werden.

Es gibt keine offizielle Definition dafür wie groß/klein ein Betrag sein muss, um als Dust zu gelten, da jede Softwareimplementierung (Client, Wallet, etc.) einen anderen Schwellenwert annehmen kann. Die Bitcoin Core Referenzimplementierung definiert Dust als jede Transaktionsausgabe, die niedriger ist als die aktuellen Transaktionsgebühren.

Dust entsteht meist unbeabsichtigt bei Bitcoin-Transaktionen. Denn wenn Bitcoin von einer Adresse an eine andere gesendet wird, fällt oft eine Transaktionsgebühr an. Um Spam zu verhindern und die Sicherheit des Netzwerks zu gewährleisten, gibt es bei Bitcoin eine Mindestgröße für jede Transaktion. Dieses Limit ist der Mindestbetrag an Bitcoin, der als Ausgabe in eine Transaktion einbezogen werden kann. Der Rest ist Dust.

Oder einfacher ausgedrückt, wenn die Mindestgröße für eine Bitcoin-On-Chain-Transaktion 500 Sats (5 Bits) beträgt und ich noch 800 Sats (8 Bits) in meiner Wallet habe, kann ich nach dem Versenden von 600 Sats (6 Bits) die übrigen 200 Sats (2 Bits) nicht mehr ausgeben. Diese verbleibenden 2 Bits sind Dust.

Dust stellt aus mehreren Gründen eine Herausforderung für das Bitcoin-Netzwerk und seine Benutzer//innen dar:

UTXO-Bloat: Bei jeder Transaktion werden nicht ausgegebene Transaktionsausgaben (UTXOs) erstellt, und Dust erhöht die Anzahl der UTXOs im System. Dies kann zu einer aufgeblähten Blockchain führen und sich negativ auf die Leistung und Skalierbarkeit des Netzwerks auswirken.

➡️ Wie UTXOs funktionieren

Wallet-Management: Im Laufe der Zeit kann sich in Wallets viel Dust ansammeln, und die Verwaltung solch kleiner Beträge kann für Benutzer//innen unpraktisch sein. Bei vielen Wallets ist ein Mindestguthaben erforderlich, und die Dust-Mengen sind möglicherweise zu gering, um diese Anforderung zu erfüllen. Viele Nutzer//innen wechseln häufig zwischen Wallets und transferirien ihre Vermögen vorher auf die neuen Wallets, bei solchen Wechseln bleiben Dust-Beträge zurück und gelten langfristig als verloren.

Ein weiteres Problem besteht darin, dass Dust nicht genau definiert werden kann. Die Transaktionsgebühren hängen wesentlich von zwei Faktoren ab: Den Gebühren in sat/vB, welche von der Auslastung des Mempools abhängen und zu Zeiten von hoher Auslastung dementsprechend hoch sind, und zum anderen vom UTXO-Set des/der jeweiligen Nutzer//in. Denn wie wir wissen, werden Transaktionen aus einer oder mehreren UTXOs zusammengesetzt, je mehr UTXOs dabei benötigt werden, um den gewünschten Betrag zu versenden, desto höher sind die Kosten für diese Transaktion, da sich das Gewicht (in vBytes) erhöht. Diese beiden Faktoren können die Gebühren in Einzelfällen so strukturieren, dass größere Mengen Dust anfallen, als in anderen Fällen.

Datenschutzbedenken: Da jede Transaktion in der Blockchain gespeichert wird, können selbst winzige Mengen Dust mit der Identität oder dem Transaktionsverlauf einer Person verknüpft werden, was die Privatsphäre gefährdet. Diese Funktion wird von Angreifern in sogenannten Dust-Attacks ausgenutzt. Denn böswillige Angreifer haben schnell erkannt, dass Nutzer//innen die winzigen Dust-Beträge, die in ihren Wallet-Adressen angezeigt werden, nicht viel Aufmerksamkeit schenken oder gar bemerken. Angreifer schicken also Kleinstbeträge an eine große Anzahl von Adressen, um dann im nächsten Schritt in einer kombinierten Analyse dieser Adressen und der Beträge, versuchen herauszufinden, welche Adressen zur gleichen Wallet gehören. Dabei ist es das Ziel, diese so identifizierbaren Adressen und Wallets schließlich den jeweiligen Eigentümer//innen zuzuordnen, um diese dann durch ausgefeilte Phishing-Angriffe oder Cyber-Erpressungen zu attackieren.

Um diese Probleme zu lösen, können Nutzer//innen Dust konsolidieren, indem sie mehrere Dust-UTXOs in einer einzigen Transaktion mit einem höheren Wert kombinieren. Einige Wallets und Dienste bieten Funktionen an, mit denen Benutzer//innen ihren Dust effektiv verwalten und konsolidieren können.

Abschließende Gedanken

Der Unit-Bias ist absolut vorhanden. Ich persönlich begegne ihm immer wieder in Gesprächen mit Bitcoin-Interessierten, die sich mit der Materie noch nicht lange auseinandergesetzt haben. Die Verwunderung ist oft sehr groß, dass bitcoins nicht als Ganzes gekauft werden müssen. Die Verwendung einer Untereinheit sowohl in Wallets, als auch bei der Bepreisung kann dabei helfen.

An die Verwendung von Sats als die kleinste Einheit von Bitcoin habe ich mich gewöhnt, allerdings tendiere ich mittlerweile persönlich zum Gebrauch von Bits. Die hervorgebrachten Argumente leuchten mir ein und ich bin überzeugt, dass Bits eine größere Akzeptanz außerhalb des Bitcoin-Inner-Circles hervorrufen können, als Sats. Darüber hinaus ist das Sats-Zeichen wirklich unpraktisch.

Ich befürworte hier einige Ideen, die das Paragrafzeichen zum Symbol für Sats erheben wollen.

🫳🎤

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In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!‌

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

As the title states, scratch behind my ear and you get it. 🐶🐾🫡

@ ed84ce10:cccf4c2a

Hackathon Summary

The YQuantum 2024 Hackathon concluded with significant participation and numerous project submissions, establishing itself as a vibrant platform for innovation. Out of 300 registrants, the on-site participants formed teams and worked on developing 28 BUIDLs, engaging in challenges across diverse tracks sponsored by prominent quantum computing organizations, such as QuEra Computing, IBM Quantum, Classiq, DoraHacks, SandboxAQ, and Capgemini/The Hartford/Quantinuum.

Participants developed groundbreaking solutions in quantum computing, driven by prize incentives, including quantum cloud credits, internships, networking opportunities, and potential speaking engagements. The grand prizes recognized exceptional projects, with the first place receiving $2000, presentation opportunities before Yale researchers, and participation in the Yale Innovation Summit.

The hackathon successfully fostered a collaborative environment that encouraged the exploration of cutting-edge technologies and ideas, advancing the quantum computing field. YQuantum 2024 underscored the potential of quantum technologies and promoted knowledge exchange among participants and sponsors.

Hackathon Winners

Held on April 13, 2024, YQuantum's inaugural event attracted 300 participants from 10 countries, featuring six industry-sponsored challenges that culminated in a series of prestigious awards.

Institute Grand Prizes Winners

• 1st Place: Quantum Consortium: Case-Duke-Lehigh-Vandy Nexus This project employs adiabatic methods to prepare antiferromagnetic energy eigenstates, with a focus on quantum many-body scarring and enhancing error correction in computing.

• 2nd Place: Sparse Quantum State Preparation The team developed efficient algorithms using Classiq APIs for sparse quantum state preparation, optimizing execution for scalability and efficiency in managing quantum data.

• 3rd Place: QuBruin This project optimizes algorithms using dynamic quantum circuits and enhances error correction. The team improved user accessibility through Qiskit-based models for better circuit performance under noise conditions.

IBM Quantum Prize Winners

• Modified IBM Challenge
  This project delves into foundational linear algebra concepts, emphasizing core principles and mastery.

QuEra Computing Prize Winners

• 3D Quantum Scars on 2D Tweezer Arrays
  The team investigates quantum scar states on a 3D lattice projected into 2D, using Julia and QuEra's Bloqade to simulate quantum dynamics.

Classiq Technologies Prize Winners

• YQuantum2024 Classiq Team 34 Wavefunction Wizards
  Focusing on optimizing sparse quantum state preparation, this project enhances algorithmic efficiency in quantum data processing.

DoraHacks Prize Winners

• Spooner_QRNG_Classifier
  The project employs Python scripts and a gradient booster classifier to predict quantum device origins of random binary data, surpassing baseline prediction accuracy.

Capgemini // Quantinuum // The Hartford Prize Winners

• Skittlez
  This partnership addresses quantum computing challenges through interdisciplinary expertise, designing innovative quantum solutions.

• Honorable Mention: BB24 - Yale Quantum Monte Carlo The project enhances Quantum Monte Carlo techniques via novel sampling and encoding schemes, improving parallel processing and computational efficiency.

SandboxAQ Prize Winners

• QuantumQuails
  This project improves solar cell efficiency through quantum chemistry, utilizing VQE to model solar energy absorption for enhanced conversion effectiveness.

• Honorable Mention: mRNA Sequence Design via Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm This project optimizes mRNA sequence design using QAOA, enhancing protein expression and structural stability through codon and nucleotide parameters.

Explore all projects at DoraHacks.

About the Organizer:

YQuantum

YQuantum is a prominent entity within the technology and blockchain sectors, recognized for its innovative approach and strategic initiatives. Specializing in utilizing quantum computing capabilities, YQuantum is committed to advancing the technological frontier. Though specific projects are not highlighted, YQuantum's role in shaping industry standards positions it as a leader in the field. Through dedication to cutting-edge research and development, YQuantum continues to drive progress in quantum technologies, aligning with its mission to propel scientific and technological advancements globally.

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

Test Bounty Note

@ 8fb140b4:f948000c

Intro

This short tutorial will help you set up your own Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) on your own LND Node that is not using Umbrel. If you are a user of Umbrel, you should use their version of NWC.

Requirements

You need to have a working installation of LND with established channels and connectivity to the internet. NWC in itself is fairly light and will not consume a lot of resources. You will also want to ensure that you have a working installation of Docker, since we will use a docker image to run NWC.

• Working installation of LND (and all of its required components)
• Docker (with Docker compose)

Installation

For the purpose of this tutorial, we will assume that you have your lnd/bitcoind running under user bitcoin with home directory /home/bitcoin. We will also assume that you already have a running installation of Docker (or docker.io).

Prepare and verify

git version - we will need git to get the latest version of NWC. docker version - should execute successfully and show the currently installed version of Docker. docker compose version - same as before, but the version will be different. ss -tupln | grep 10009- should produce the following output: tcp LISTEN 0 4096 0.0.0.0:10009 0.0.0.0: tcp LISTEN 0 4096 [::]:10009 [::]:**

For things to work correctly, your Docker should be version 20.10.0 or later. If you have an older version, consider installing a new one using instructions here: https://docs.docker.com/engine/install/

Create folders & download NWC

In the home directory of your LND/bitcoind user, create a new folder, e.g., "nwc" mkdir /home/bitcoin/nwc. Change to that directory cd /home/bitcoin/nwc and clone the NWC repository: git clone https://github.com/getAlby/nostr-wallet-connect.git

Creating the Docker image

In this step, we will create a Docker image that you will use to run NWC.

• Change directory to nostr-wallet-connect: cd nostr-wallet-connect
• Run command to build Docker image: docker build -t nwc:$(date +'%Y%m%d%H%M') -t nwc:latest . (there is a dot at the end)
• The last line of the output (after a few minutes) should look like => => naming to docker.io/library/nwc:latest
• nwc:latest is the name of the Docker image with a tag which you should note for use later.

Creating docker-compose.yml and necessary data directories

• Let's create a directory that will hold your non-volatile data (DB): mkdir data
• Indocker-compose.ymlfile, there are fields that you want to replace (<> comments) and port “4321” that you want to make sure is open (check with ss -tupln | grep 4321which should return nothing).
• Create docker-compose.ymlfile with the following content, and make sure to update fields that have <> comment:

version: "3.8" services: nwc: image: nwc:latest volumes: - ./data:/data - ~/.lnd:/lnd:ro ports: - "4321:8080" extra_hosts: - "localhost:host-gateway" environment: NOSTR_PRIVKEY: <use "openssl rand -hex 32" to generate a fresh key and place it inside ""> LN_BACKEND_TYPE: "LND" LND_ADDRESS: localhost:10009 LND_CERT_FILE: "/lnd/tls.cert" LND_MACAROON_FILE: "/lnd/data/chain/bitcoin/mainnet/admin.macaroon" DATABASE_URI: "/data/nostr-wallet-connect.db" COOKIE_SECRET: <use "openssl rand -hex 32" to generate fresh secret and place it inside ""> PORT: 8080 restart: always stop_grace_period: 1m

Starting and testing

Now that you have everything ready, it is time to start the container and test.

• While you are in the nwcdirectory (important), execute the following command and check the log output, docker compose up
• You should see container logs while it is starting, and it should not exit if everything went well.
• At this point, you should be able to go to http://<ip of the host where nwc is running>:4321 and get to the interface of NWC
• To stop the test run of NWC, simply press Ctrl-C , and it will shut the container down.
• To start NWC permanently, you should execute docker compose up -d , “-d” tells Docker to detach from the session.
• To check currently running NWC logs, execute docker compose logs to run it in tail mode add -f to the end.
• To stop the container, execute docker compose down

That's all, just follow the instructions in the web interface to get started.

Updating

As with any software, you should expect fixes and updates that you would need to perform periodically. You could automate this, but it falls outside of the scope of this tutorial. Since we already have all of the necessary configuration in place, the update execution is fairly simple.

• Change directory to the clone of the git repository, cd /home/bitcoin/nwc/nostr-wallet-connect
• Run command to build Docker image: docker build -t nwc:$(date +'%Y%m%d%H%M') -t nwc:latest . (there is a dot at the end)
• Change directory back one level cd ..
• Restart (stop and start) the docker compose config docker compose down && docker compose up -d
• Done! Optionally you may want to check the logs: docker compose logs

@ c5fede3d:16e03f7b

Hay quien dice el famoso dicho de «año nuevo, vida nueva». En este caso, iniciamos el año con el mismo propósito, seguir aprendiendo para que no nos pille el toro. En esta ocasión, toca tratar la entrada de capital a tu wallet. Sin embargo, hay que saber donde meterse sin que las arenas movedizas te engullan. ¿Preparado para comprar la hucha del cerdito?

Esta es la segunda entrega de Semanario Crypto, una serie de artículos dedicados para aquellos que desconocen los conceptos básicos del mundo de las criptomonedas. La semana pasada hicimos un barrido sin adentrarnos en territorio comanche. Si aún no tienes claro qué es una wallet o cuál es el propósito de una frase semilla, ve al punto de partida y vuelve a leerte Semanario Crypto #1 | Un nuevo paradigma, porque es el ticket de entrada para este mundillo y no lo puedes perder.

EL LÍO DEL MONTEPÍO💱

Si has llegado hasta aquí, he de felicitarte. Has dado dos grandes pasos. El primero, tener la mente abierta y querer aprender. El segundo, disponer de una wallet y tener guardada a buen recaudo la frase semilla. Ahora es el momento de la verdad, operar, no sin antes tener claro un par de conceptos más.

¿Qué son los exchanges?

Son plataformas digitales donde los usuarios pueden comprar, vender o intercambiar criptomonedas. A través de ellas, los usuarios pueden convertir su dinero tradicional en crypto, facilitando el comercio de criptoactivos.

Los exchanges son los bancos del mundo de la criptomonedas. Ambos actúan como intermediarios en las transacciones financieras y ofrecen servicios relacionados con la inversión y el comercio. Sin embargo, no todos los exchanges son iguales, se diferencian dos tipos:

1. Exchange Centralizado (CEX)

En este tipo de exchange, una entidad centralizada gestiona las transacciones y retiene los fondos los usuarios. Los CEX custodian tu dinero, cuentan con equipos profesionales de atención al cliente y están sujetos a altas regulaciones gubernamentales. Te registras, haces la verificación de identidad (KYC) y ellos te proporcionan una wallet para que la fondees con tu dinero fiduciario y operes dentro de la plataforma. Todo un ecosistema a golpe de click.

2. Exchange Descentralizado (DEX)

Aquí las transacciones se realizan entre usuarios a través de contratos inteligentes en la blockchain (P2P), es decir, las operaciones se hacen directamente desde sus propias billeteras. No requieren que se proporcionen información personal. Los usuarios mantienen el control sobre sus activos (autocustodia) y no habrá que depositar en ellas.

Sabiendo las diferencias entre un CEX y un DEX, nuevamente nos hallamos en la tesitura de tener que definirnos a nosotros mismos. En la anterior entrega de Semanario Crypto optamos por una wallet caliente o una fría en función del tipo de inversor que somos, o incluso pudimos hacer un mix emparejando la wallet fría a una extensión de navegador. Aunque, como acabamos de ver, si te registras en un CEX ellos ya te proporcionan una billetera electrónica para que operes dentro de la plataforma. La elección es tuya, pero has de tener en cuenta cómo operar de una forma u otra conforme al capital que dispongas:

Quiero operar por un monto superior a 50k euros anuales y/o soy un buen ciudadano.

• Amigo mío, quítate de problemas, y registrate en un CEX como Binance o Bit2Me. La legislación fiscal española incide especialmente en que cualquier tenencia de criptomonedas superior a 50k euros debe ser declarada. Con los exchanges que te he puesto, la información proporcionada a la Agencia Tributaria es automática y de ella se encargan ellos, no tienes que hacer nada de nada. Solo hacer tu declaración anual habitual.
• También es la opción ideal para el vago y el que no dispone de tiempo. ¿Quieres hacer un mix que te ofrezca las bondades de los CEX y los DEX? Atento al siguiente punto y atiende a las nuevas regulaciones de cara a 2025.

Quiero operar por un monto inferior a 10k euros anuales y/o considero que los CEX son neo-usureros.

• La solución son los DEX. Como ya vimos, los exchanges descentralizados no requieren de KYC para operar, de modo que dan un mayor grado de privacidad y anonimato, puesto que jamás dispondrán de tu documentación personal. Además, estás expuesto a lo que se denomina el ecosistema de las finanzas descentralizadas (DeFi).
• El mundo DeFi busca democratizar el acceso a los servicios financieros, abriendo un abanico de nuevos mercados, oportunidades de inversión y ser el primero en conocer las innovaciones financieras. Sin lugar a dudas, es donde están los más avispados y la gente pudiente, muestra de ello es el valor de su capitalización de mercado, alcanzando más de 52 mil millones de dólares, que se dice pronto.

EL CASTILLO DE DRÁCULA, LA AEAT 🧛

El año 2025 va a ser determinante para el devenir del mundo de las criptomonedas, al menos en Europa. Es el año donde entran en vigor las nuevas regulaciones fiscales. Parece ser que el mantra de que los criptoactivos eran una estafa y que no valían nada a pasado a mejor vida a partir de la entrada del gran capital, como Blackrock. Ahora, los entes fiscales reguladores quieren su porción del pastel y apuntan a tu billetera. Si quieres operar en este mundillo, debes saber un poco de fiscalidad, para que no llamen a tu puerta. Aunque, recuerda, si optaste por ser un buen ciudadano (español, en este caso) que te registraste en un CEX como Binance o Bit2Me no tendrás mayores preocupaciones, porque allí todo lo que hagas acaba registrado automáticamente en tu declaración del año fiscal. De todas formas, siempre es bueno aprender, sobre todo si operas desde los DEX con tu billetera autocustodiada.

1. La Ley MiCa y Directiva DAC8

• Reglamento europeo que establece el marco regulatorio para las criptomonedas. Obliga a que todos los servicios financieros que emitan o comercialicen criptoactivos tengan licencia y deban proporcionar información sobre sus operaciones. Los proveedores de servicios deberán informar sobre las transacciones realizadas por residentes en Europa con fines de supervisión fiscal. Los ciudadanos europeos están obligados a declarar la tenencia de criptoactivos como parte del patrimonio personal, incluyendo ganancias, la cual estará sujeta a impuestos.
• La Directiva DAC8 complementa al reglamento y se enfoca en el intercambio automático de información fiscal entre los Estados miembro de la UE (CARF). Los proveedores de criptoactivos deberán reportarán todas las transacciones y datos relevantes a las autoridades fiscales nacionales, concretamente los movimientos y saldos del usuario. Legitima a Hacienda a poder embargar las criptomonedas depositadas en un exchange, las wallets autocustodiadas son inembargables por estar en control del usuario.

2. La Travel Rule o Regla de Viaje

• Regulación que aumenta la trazabilidad entre las transacciones de criptomonedas. Exige a los servicios de activos digitales (VASP) recojan y compartan información sobre los remitentes y beneficiarios, sea a carteras custodiadas o autocustodiadas.

3. Límites y “mandamientos”

• Cualquier transferencia superior a 1.000 euros requerirá que el proveedor recopile datos personales.
• Si el monto de operaciones alcanza los 10.000 euros anuales, el proveedor informa.
• Si el monto de operaciones alcanza los 3.000 euros en un trimestre natural, el proveedor informa.
• Las ganancias deben ser declaradas en el IRPF al final del año fiscal, incluso si las criptomonedas no se han convertido a FIAT (dinero fiduciario tradicional).
• El Modelo 721 es una obligación informativa que deben cumplir los contribuyentes que poseen criptomonedas en el extranjero (exchange que no opere bajo legislación española y no presente los modelos informativos requeridos por Hacienda) y cuyo saldo supera los 50.000 euros a fecha del 31 de diciembre.
• La CNMV supervisa el mercado de criptoactivos y el Banco de España las monedas estables (dólares digitales como USDC-USDT).

¿AÚN CON FUERZAS?

Pues sabiendo todo esto, ya es hora de que deposites tu dinero en tu billetera de criptomonedas. ¿Cómo hacerlo? Eso ya lo verás en la siguiente entrega de Semanario Crypto. En él se te ofrecerá el martillo para que rompes la hucha del cerdito y le des vida a tu wallet. Aprende las rutas de entrada y de salida. Opera con conocimiento y sabiendo lo que haces. Es más fácil de lo que piensas. Recuerda que la información es poder, y tú la vas a tener.

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Descargo de responsabilidad: Toda la información compartida forma parte de mi visión personal y no tiene como objetivo asesorar financieramente. Doy información, no consejos de inversión.

@ 82341f88:fbfbe6a2

There’s a lot of conversation around the #TwitterFiles. Here’s my take, and thoughts on how to fix the issues identified.

I’ll start with the principles I’ve come to believe…based on everything I’ve learned and experienced through my past actions as a Twitter co-founder and lead:

1. Social media must be resilient to corporate and government control.
2. Only the original author may remove content they produce.
3. Moderation is best implemented by algorithmic choice.

The Twitter when I led it and the Twitter of today do not meet any of these principles. This is my fault alone, as I completely gave up pushing for them when an activist entered our stock in 2020. I no longer had hope of achieving any of it as a public company with no defense mechanisms (lack of dual-class shares being a key one). I planned my exit at that moment knowing I was no longer right for the company.

The biggest mistake I made was continuing to invest in building tools for us to manage the public conversation, versus building tools for the people using Twitter to easily manage it for themselves. This burdened the company with too much power, and opened us to significant outside pressure (such as advertising budgets). I generally think companies have become far too powerful, and that became completely clear to me with our suspension of Trump’s account. As I’ve said before, we did the right thing for the public company business at the time, but the wrong thing for the internet and society. Much more about this here: https://twitter.com/jack/status/1349510769268850690

I continue to believe there was no ill intent or hidden agendas, and everyone acted according to the best information we had at the time. Of course mistakes were made. But if we had focused more on tools for the people using the service rather than tools for us, and moved much faster towards absolute transparency, we probably wouldn’t be in this situation of needing a fresh reset (which I am supportive of). Again, I own all of this and our actions, and all I can do is work to make it right.

Back to the principles. Of course governments want to shape and control the public conversation, and will use every method at their disposal to do so, including the media. And the power a corporation wields to do the same is only growing. It’s critical that the people have tools to resist this, and that those tools are ultimately owned by the people. Allowing a government or a few corporations to own the public conversation is a path towards centralized control.

I’m a strong believer that any content produced by someone for the internet should be permanent until the original author chooses to delete it. It should be always available and addressable. Content takedowns and suspensions should not be possible. Doing so complicates important context, learning, and enforcement of illegal activity. There are significant issues with this stance of course, but starting with this principle will allow for far better solutions than we have today. The internet is trending towards a world were storage is “free” and infinite, which places all the actual value on how to discover and see content.

Which brings me to the last principle: moderation. I don’t believe a centralized system can do content moderation globally. It can only be done through ranking and relevance algorithms, the more localized the better. But instead of a company or government building and controlling these solely, people should be able to build and choose from algorithms that best match their criteria, or not have to use any at all. A “follow” action should always deliver every bit of content from the corresponding account, and the algorithms should be able to comb through everything else through a relevance lens that an individual determines. There’s a default “G-rated” algorithm, and then there’s everything else one can imagine.

The only way I know of to truly live up to these 3 principles is a free and open protocol for social media, that is not owned by a single company or group of companies, and is resilient to corporate and government influence. The problem today is that we have companies who own both the protocol and discovery of content. Which ultimately puts one person in charge of what’s available and seen, or not. This is by definition a single point of failure, no matter how great the person, and over time will fracture the public conversation, and may lead to more control by governments and corporations around the world.

I believe many companies can build a phenomenal business off an open protocol. For proof, look at both the web and email. The biggest problem with these models however is that the discovery mechanisms are far too proprietary and fixed instead of open or extendable. Companies can build many profitable services that complement rather than lock down how we access this massive collection of conversation. There is no need to own or host it themselves.

Many of you won’t trust this solution just because it’s me stating it. I get it, but that’s exactly the point. Trusting any one individual with this comes with compromises, not to mention being way too heavy a burden for the individual. It has to be something akin to what bitcoin has shown to be possible. If you want proof of this, get out of the US and European bubble of the bitcoin price fluctuations and learn how real people are using it for censorship resistance in Africa and Central/South America.

I do still wish for Twitter, and every company, to become uncomfortably transparent in all their actions, and I wish I forced more of that years ago. I do believe absolute transparency builds trust. As for the files, I wish they were released Wikileaks-style, with many more eyes and interpretations to consider. And along with that, commitments of transparency for present and future actions. I’m hopeful all of this will happen. There’s nothing to hide…only a lot to learn from. The current attacks on my former colleagues could be dangerous and doesn’t solve anything. If you want to blame, direct it at me and my actions, or lack thereof.

As far as the free and open social media protocol goes, there are many competing projects: @bluesky is one with the AT Protocol, nostr another, Mastodon yet another, Matrix yet another…and there will be many more. One will have a chance at becoming a standard like HTTP or SMTP. This isn’t about a “decentralized Twitter.” This is a focused and urgent push for a foundational core technology standard to make social media a native part of the internet. I believe this is critical both to Twitter’s future, and the public conversation’s ability to truly serve the people, which helps hold governments and corporations accountable. And hopefully makes it all a lot more fun and informative again.

💸🛠️🌐 To accelerate open internet and protocol work, I’m going to open a new category of #startsmall grants: “open internet development.” It will start with a focus of giving cash and equity grants to engineering teams working on social media and private communication protocols, bitcoin, and a web-only mobile OS. I’ll make some grants next week, starting with $1mm/yr to Signal. Please let me know other great candidates for this money.

@ 2063cd79:57bd1320

Ich hatte vor ein paar Wochen die Gelegenheit mich mit Micheal Hassard persönlich zu unterhalten. Mike ist Verteidiger im Fall von Roman Sterlingov. Der Fall ist haarsträubend und beängstigend. Mike und ich haben uns einige Zeit unterhalten und er hat mir einige Details aus diesem wirklich spannenden Prozess verraten. Ich wollte versuchen die Informationen in einem Artikel zusammenzufassen, um auch anderen Leuten, die mit dem Fall noch nicht betraut sind, die Möglichkeit zu geben, zu verstehen, was für absurde Methoden und ungerechte Beweismittel in diesem noch komplett neuen rechtlichen Umfeld angewendet werden.

LAX

Am 27. April 2001 landet ein Direktflug aus Moskau am Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). Bei der Passkontrolle an der Immigration wird ein junger Passagier dieses Fluges von Kriminalermittlern des Internal Revenue Service (IRS) verhaftet. In seinem Gepäck befinden sich vier Reisepässe und allerhand technisches Equipment. Darunter Laptops, externe Festplatten und Bitcoin Signing Devices (Hardware Wallets). Der junge Mann wird festgenommen, seine mitgeführten Besitztümer und Pässe konfisziert, dann wird er in Untersuchungshaft gebracht. Der Vorwurf: Die Gründung und der Betrieb eines Bitcoin Mixers. Konkret wird ihm vorgeworfen, Bitcoin Fog gegründet und betrieben zu haben, darüber hinaus wird er in drei Punkten angeklagt: Geldwäsche, Betrieb eines nicht lizenzierten Geldtransfergeschäfts und Geldtransfer ohne Lizenz. Die IRS behauptet, dass über 1,2 Millionen Bitcoin, im Wert von etwa 336 M US Dollar zum Zeitpunkt der Transaktionen, über Bitcoin Fog verschickt wurden.

Bitcoin Fog

Bitcoin Fog war ein beliebter Custodial Bitcoin Mixer, der von Nutzer//innen für ihre Privatsphäre genutzt wurde. Mixer sind Services die entwickelt wurden, um das Problem der "Common-Input-Ownership-Heuristik" zu brechen. Vereinfacht ausgedrückt beschreibt dieses Problem die Annahme, dass mehrere Inputs einer Transaktion relativ sicher dem gleichen Besitzer gehören. Ich habe Bitcoin Mixer schon mal detailliert beschrieben:

https://www.genexyz.org/post/23-block-772315-bitcoin-mixing-q6i7y4/

TL;DR: Die Grundidee besteht darin, dass man einen Coin nimmt, der aus mehreren UTXOs besteht, und diesen mit Hilfe eines Dienstes einem Pool zuführt. Diese Dienste erhalten für die Vermittlung, Zusammenführung und das Stellen der Infrastruktur eine kleine Gebühr. Transaktionen werden dann so aufgebaut, dass sie es Überwachungsfirmen oder anderen Beobachtern sehr schwer machen, genau zu wissen, welcher Transaktion-Output zu welchem der Input-Steller gehört.

Bitcoin Fog wurde 2011 gegründet und ist ein Custodial Service, was bedeutet, dass Nutzer//innen ihre Bitcoin an eine Wallet des Betreibers senden, und im Gegenzug dann von Bitcoin Fog andere Bitcoin zurück erhalten, um die Spur der On-Chain-Transaktionen zu verwischen.

Roman Sterlingov

Roman war schon früh Benutzer von Bitcoin. Als er 14 Jahre alt war, zog er mit seiner Mutter von Russland nach Schweden und beschäftigte sich ab etwa 2011 mit Bitcoin. Dies ist wichtig, denn als russischer und schwedischer Staatsbürger ist Roman im Besitz von vier offiziell ausgestellten Reisepässen. Russland hat zwei Pässe, einen für das Reisen innerhalb und einen für das Reisen außerhalb Russlands. Schweden stellt auch zwei Reisepässe aus. Als der Bitcoin-Kurs stieg, wurde er Millionär. Er kündigte seinen Job und versuchte, sich selbstständig zu machen. Unter anderem gründete er ein VPN-Geschäft, das nicht erfolgreich war, und entschied sich später aufgrund der Volatilität von Bitcoin und fehlenden Einnahmen aus seinen Projekten, Pilot bei einer kommerziellen Fluggesellschaft zu werden.

Er meldete sich bei einer kalifornischen Flugschule an und 2021, als Roman nach Kalifornien zur Flugschule flog, wurde er von der Regierung am Flughafen LAX verhaftet. Er sitzt seit über zwei Jahren im Gefängnis und wartet auf seinen Prozess. Neben seinen Pässen und seinem Equipment wurden auch die seit 2011 angesammelten Bitcoin beschlagnahmt, da diese auf Konten bei u.a. Kraken lagen.

Die Anklage

Kalifornien hat Roman Sterlingov wegen des Vorwurfs verhaftet, über einen Zeitraum von 10 Jahren Bitcoin im Wert von fast 336 M US Dollar gewaschen zu haben. Ihm wird vorgeworfen, über sein Konto und seine IP-Adressen mit der Bitcoin Fog-Domain und mit Mt. Gox-Konten, die in Verbindung zu Bitcoin Fog stehen, an Bitcoin Fog beteiligt zu sein.

Vor dem Start des Dienstes nutzte der Administrator seinen echten Namen auf seinem Mt. Gox-Konto, um die Plattform einem Betatest zu unterziehen. Sein persönliches Google-Konto wurde auch zum Speichern der Schritte zur Bezahlung der Domain verwendet. Dies sind jedoch zum heutigen Zeitpunkt nur Anschuldigungen ohne konkrete Beweise. Der Fall stützt sich stark auf digitale Forensik und Blockchain-Analyse ohne Zeugenaussagen oder ähnliche konkrete Beweisstücke. Selbst wenn Roman die Domain gekauft hätte, wäre dies nicht illegal. Die Verjährungsfrist für die angeblichen Verbrechen ist ebenfalls abgelaufen. Was bleibt, sind von der Anklage angeführte "Beweise", die sich komplett auf die Blockchain-Analyse der Firma Chainalysis stützen.

Chainalysis

Chainalysis ist die wohl bekannteste Blockchain-Analyse Firma. In einem früheren Artikel habe ich schon mal beschrieben, wie diese Firmen operieren:

https://www.genexyz.org/post/19-block-765505-on-chain-analytics-mhcumo/

TL;DR: Unter On-Chain Analytics versteht man die Analyse von Daten, die auf jeder beliebigen Blockchain vorhanden sind. Diese Daten sind auf der Chain, also on-chain und somit für jedermann jederzeit und von überall abrufbar. Genauer bieten Blockchains Daten über Adressen, Transaktionen und in gewisser Weise auch über Wallets. Diese Informationen können verwertet werden, um verschiedene Sachverhalte darzustellen. Dieses Verfahren wird auch Heuristik genannt und bedient sich wahrscheinlicher Annahmen, also z.B. wiederkehrender Muster. Dabei werden sogenannte Cluster erstellt, also Verbindungen zwischen Adressen und Transaktionen gezogen.

So nutzen nutzen Analyse-Firmen wie Chainalysis Heuristiken und Wahrscheinlichkeitsanalysen, um Bitcoin-Transaktionen und Eigentümerwechsel zu verfolgen. Sie versuchen, Adressen auf der Grundlage dieser Heuristiken zu gruppieren, jedoch stimmen die Ergebnisse verschiedener Unternehmen oft nicht überein. Dies kann zu vagen Beweisen und Schuldunterstellungen führen.

„Während die Identität eines Besitzers einer Bitcoin-Adresse im Allgemeinen anonym ist (es sei denn, der Besitzer entscheidet sich dafür, die Informationen öffentlich zugänglich zu machen), können Strafverfolgungsbehörden den Besitzer einer bestimmten Bitcoin-Adresse oft durch Analyse der Blockchain identifizieren“ - Devon Beckett, Special Agent, IRS

Chainalysis betreiben einen sogenannten Reactor, der diese Analysen vornimmt. Diese Analyse dient als Grundlage für das Argument, Roman habe Geld von seinem Mt Gox-Konto abgebucht und verwendet, um die Bezahlung der DNS-Registrierung für Bitcoin Fog zu tätigen und zu verbergen. Es wird so versucht, Roman mit Aufzeichnungen im Bitcoin Talk-Forums in Verbindung zu bringen, die wiederum Bitcoin Fog mit illegalen Aktivitäten in Verbindung bringen.

Konkret wird anhand dieser Analyse eine Verbindung zu Roman und weiter zu Bitcoin Fog hergestellt, die beweisen soll, dass Zahlungen im Wert von 336 M US Dollar gewaschen wurden, die für Drogengeschäfte verwendet wurden.

Es gibt keine objektiven Standards für diese Art der Analyse und Strafverfolgungsbehörden stützen ihre Beweise auf diese privaten Ermittlungen. Im konkreten Fall vo Chainalysis spielen Beziehungen zu Strafverfolgungsbehörden wie dem britischen Serious Crimes Office und dem US-Justizministerium, sowie den damit einhergehenden Geldquellen eine entscheidende Rolle beim Aufstieg des Unternehmens zum größten Anbieter dieser Dienstleistungen mit einer Marktkapitalisierung von 8,6 Milliarden US Dollar.

Verteidigung

Roman wird in diesem Fall von der Kanzlei Ekeland Law, PLLC vertreten. Die Anwälte, Tor Ekeland und Michael Hassard sind der festen Überzeugung, dass Roman unschuldig ist und dass er in diesem Fall aufgrund fehlerhafter digitaler Forensik in Bedrängnis geraten ist.

Roman gibt zu, Bitcoin Fog aus Datenschutzgründen verwendet zu haben, um seine Bitcoin zu waschen, bevor er diese in sein Konto bei Kraken einzahlte. Das Mischen an sich ist nicht illegal, denn während der Anhörung erkannte der Richter sogar an, dass die Verwendung eines Mixers wie Bitcoin Fog nicht grundsätzlich verboten sei. Dies war sogar das erste Mal, dass ein Richter ausdrücklich erklärte, dass das Mischen von Bitcoin nicht illegal ist und dass es auch nicht illegal ist, Nutzer//in eines Mischdienstes zu sein. Es ist jedoch zu beachten, dass sich dieser Fall speziell gegen den Betreiber von Bitcoin Fog richtet und versucht, den Dienst mit Drogenmarktplätzen in Verbindung zu bringen.

Argumente für Romans Unschuld beinhalten unter anderem, dass Bitcoin Fog in der gesamten Zeit von Romans Inhaftierung aktiv geblieben ist, was darauf schließen lässt, dass die eigentlichen Betreiber immer noch auf freiem Fuß sind. Roman wurde vor seiner Verhaftung überwacht, es wurden Abhör- und Überwachungsmaßnahmen durchgeführt, jedoch keine Beweise gefunden, die ihn mit dem Betrieb von Bitcoin Fog in Verbindung bringen, selbst nachdem Server beschlagnahmt wurden.

Darüber hinaus ignoriert die Anklage auch die Tatsache, dass die DNS-Registrierung der Bitcoin Fog Domain seit Romans Verhaftung zweimal erneuert wurde. Trotzdem versucht die Anklage eine Verbindung zu Roman auf der Grundlage von IP-Adressen herzustellen, die mit anderen E-Mails verknüpft sind, die zur Registrierung der DNS und zur Erstellung eines Kontos im Bitcoin Talk Forum verwendet wurden.

Roman wird Verschwörung vorgeworfen, es wurde jedoch kein einziger Mitverschwörer genannt. Bei den von der Anklage behaupteten Transaktionen handelt es sich um Lizenzzahlungen des Mixers, die jedoch nicht durch Beweise gestützt werden. Wenn Roman ein Drahtzieher wäre, der 336 M US Dollar an Drogengeldern gewaschen hätte, würde es für ihn keinen Sinn machen, sein Geld mit seinem richtigen Namen und Passfoto auf ein KYC-Konto bei Kraken einzuzahlen.

An dieser Stelle ist es vielleicht interessant festzustellen, dass Michael Gronager, einer der Mitbegründer von Chainalysis, auch einer der Mitbegründer von Kraken war.

Mt Gox Daten

Es gibt eine Verbindung zwischen Kraken, Chainalysis und Mt Gox. Denn nicht nur war der Gründer von Kraken, Jesse Powell, als Berater für Mt. Gox bei der Lösung eines Sicherheitsproblems tätig und begann in Erwartung seines Kollapses mit der Arbeit an Kraken als Ersatz, auch Chainalysis wurde als direkte Reaktion auf den Mt. Gox-Skandal gegründet.

Chainalysis wurde in den offiziellen Ermittlungen im Insolvenzverfahren von Mt. Gox genutzt, um den Verbleib der "gestohlenen" bitcoins zu untersuchen. Allerdings gibt es Anzeichen dafür, dass die dabei verwendeten Daten falsch und unzuverlässig seien. Angebliche Transaktionsnummern und Wallet-Adressen existieren nicht, werden verwechselt oder sind schlichtweg fehlerhaft. Genau dieser Datensatz wird aber nun benutzt, um Fälle wie den von Roman zu beweisen.

Ankläger

Einer der Staatsanwälte des Falles ist jetzt leitender Rechtsberater für Chainalysis, und ein IRS-Ermittler gründete während seiner Tätigkeit für den IRS ein privates Unternehmen namens Exigent LLC. Die Pressemitteilungen und Fundraising-Runden von Chainalysis stehen eng im Zusammenhang mit dem Fall. Exigent LLC erhält in der Pressemitteilung des US-Justizministeriums die höchste Auszeichnung für Romans Verhaftung, und fünf Monate später kaufte Chainalysis Exigent LLC. Dieser Fall scheint von Karrierismus und Profitstreben getrieben zu sein.

Problem

Neben den Verbindungen der Ermittler und Ankläger mit Chainalysis und der Problematik der fehlenden Beweise, ist dieser Fall zutiefst beunruhigend und wirft Bedenken hinsichtlich des geltenden Computerrechts auf.

Die meisten Blockchain-Strafverfolgungen folgen dem gleichen Muster: Einspruchsvereinbarungen, Gerichtsverfahren oder Entlassungen. Unschuldige Menschen gehen oft auf Plädoyer-Deals ein, weil ihnen die Ressourcen fehlen, um gegen die unbegrenzten Ressourcen des Department of Justice zu kämpfen. Roman kann keinen Deal annehmen, weil er nichts weiß und lügen müsste.

Es ist beunruhigend, dass der Fall in Washington D.C. verhandelt wird, obwohl Roman keine Verbindungen zu dieser Stadt hat. Die einzige Grundlage dafür, die Gerichtsbarkeit nach D.C. zu legen, ist darin begründet, dass eine verdeckte Operation gegen Roman aus Washington D.C. geleitet wurde. Dies gibt Anlass zur Sorge, weil es Staatsanwälten ermöglicht, Angeklagte auf der Grundlage von Online-Interaktionen vor jedes Bundesgericht zu ziehen - ob US Staatsbürger oder nicht. Dies ist ein direkter Verstoß gegen die Gerichtsstandsklausel und entfernt wichtige Elemente des Strafrechtssystems, da es jede/n Nutzer//in von Bitcoin-Mixern in die gefährliche Lage versetzen kann, vor einem US-Gericht angeklagt zu werden, wenn eine auch nur dünne Beweislage gegen ihn/sie vorliegt.

Ein weiteres Problem besteht in den vorgebrachten Beweisen. Denn die Verteidigung hat bis heute keinen Einblick in den Code oder die verwendeten Datensätze, die von Chainalysis verwendet wurden, erhalten. Chainalysis beruft sich dabei auf seine proprietären Geschäftsdaten und lehnt eine Offenlegung ab. Es wird vermutet, dass die Datensätze falsch sind, insbesondere angesichts der fragwürdigen Mt. Gox-Aufzeichnungen, auf die sie sich stützen.

Die bereitgestellten Daten sind begrenzt, unvollständig und werden in komplizierten Flussdiagrammen dargestellt. Die verwendete Software, wie z.B. der Chainalysis Reactor, steht nicht für eine unabhängige Prüfung zur Verfügung. Der Mangel an Transparenz und Zugang zu dieser Software gibt Anlass zu Bedenken hinsichtlich ihrer Genauigkeit und den daraus gezogenen Schlussfolgerungen.

Es bestehen Zweifel am Zusammenhang zwischen Roman, dem Betreiber von Bitcoin Fog, und den mutmaßlichen Straftaten. Roman sitzt derzeit im Gefängnis, ihm droht eine Haftstrafe von 50 Jahren. Die Freiheit einer Person wird durch eine kommerzielle proprietäre Software gefährdet, die vor Gericht erwirken kann, dass Quellen und Datensätze nicht offengelegt werden.

Auch wirft der Fall Bedenken hinsichtlich fehlender Standards, des gewinnorientierten Charakters des forensischen Bereichs, der Weigerung, Beweise auszutauschen, und der Möglichkeit von Justizirrtümern auf, die durch fehlerhafte Software und fragwürdige Praktiken verursacht werden.

Wie geht es weiter?

Das Verteidigungsteam hat finanzielle Probleme, da alle Gelder von Roman beschlagnahmt wurden. Der Antrag auf Freigabe der Mittel wurde abgelehnt. Romans Verteidigung muss öffentliche Mittel beantragen und hofft auf Spenden. Ich habe in einem früheren Artikel schon auf die Spendenseite aufmerksam gemacht. Wer anhand der aufgelisteten Fakten das Gefühl bekommt, dass hier jemand zu Unrecht verhaftet wurde und helfen möchte, kann die Verteidigung mit einer Spende unterstützen.

https://www.torekeland.com/roman-sterlingov

https://geyser.fund/project/usvsterlingov

FREEROMAN

🫳🎤

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การเผชิญหน้า (The Collision Point)

กลางปี 2017 ที่ร้านคราฟท์เบียร์เล็ก ๆ ในย่านเกาะเกร็ด นนทบุรี อากาศร้อนจนเครื่องปรับอากาศ (ที่ยังไม่มี) ในร้านทำงานหนักแทบไหม้ "แจ๊ก กู้ดเดย์" (Jakk Goodday) นั่งลงบนเก้าอี้ไม้ที่เจ้าของร้านกันไว้ให้เป็นประจำ ราวกับเขาเป็นลูกค้าขาประจำระดับวีไอพี

กลิ่นกาแฟคั่ว ลอยผสมกับไอความร้อนจากนอกหน้าต่าง (ผิดร้านหรือเปล่า?) เกิดเป็นบรรยากาศขมติดปลายลิ้นชวนให้คนจิบแล้วอยากถอนใจ

เขาเหลือบมองออกไปนอกหน้าต่าง.. เห็นแสงแดดแผดเผาราวกับมันรู้ว่าสงคราม Blocksize กำลังคุกรุ่นขึ้นอีกครั้ง

บรรยากาศนอกหน้าต่างกับใน ฟอรัม Bitcointalk ช่างเหมือนกันจนน่าขนลุก มันร้อนแรง ไร้ความปรานี

แจ๊กเปิดแล็ปท็อป กดเข้าเว็บฟอรัม พอเสียงแจ้งเตือน “—ติ๊ง” ดังขึ้น คิ้วของเขาก็ขมวดเล็กน้อย คล้ายได้กลิ่นดินปืนกลางสนามรบ

“โรเจอร์ แวร์ (Roger Ver) ไลฟ์เดือดลั่นเวที!” “ปีเตอร์ วูเล (Pieter Wuille) โต้กลับเรื่อง SegWit!” “Hard Fork ใกล้ถึงจุดปะทะแล้ว!”

แจ๊กคลิกเข้าไปในลิงก์ของไลฟ์ทันที เหมือนมือของเขาไม่ต้องการคำสั่งจากสมอง ความคุ้นเคยกับเหตุการณ์แบบนี้บอกเขาว่า นี่ไม่ใช่ดีเบตธรรมดา แต่มันอาจเปลี่ยนอนาคตของ Bitcoin ได้จริง ๆ

เห็นแค่พาดหัวสั้น ๆ แต่ความตึงเครียดก็ชัดเจนขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ ทุกข้อความเหมือนสุมไฟใส่ใจกองหนึ่งที่พร้อมระเบิดได้ทุกเมื่อ

โทรศัพท์ของแจ๊กดังพร้อมปรากฏชื่อ แชมป์ ‘PIGROCK’ ลอยขึ้นมา เขาหยิบขึ้นมารับทันที

“ว่าไงวะแชมป์… มีอะไรด่วนหรือเปล่า?” น้ำเสียงแจ๊กฟังดูเหมือนง่วง ๆ แต่จริง ๆ เขาพร้อมจะลุกมาวิเคราะห์สถานการณ์ให้ฟังทุกเมื่อ

“พี่แจ๊ก.. ผมอ่านดีเบตเรื่อง SegWit ในฟอรัมอยู่ครับ บางคนด่าว่ามันไม่ได้แก้ปัญหาจริง ๆ บ้างก็บอกถ้าเพิ่ม Blocksize ไปเลยจะง่ายกว่า... ผมเลยสงสัยว่า Hard Fork ที่เค้าพูดถึงกันนี่คืออะไร ใครคิดอะไรก็ Fork กันได้ง่าย ๆ เลยเหรอ"

"แล้วถ้า Fork ไปหลายสาย สุดท้ายเหรียญไหนจะเป็น ‘Bitcoin ที่แท้จริง’ ล่ะพี่?”

“แล้วการ Fork มันส่งผลกับนักลงทุนยังไงครับ? คนทั่วไปอย่างผมควรถือไว้หรือขายหนีตายดีล่ะเนี่ย?”

แจ๊กยิ้มมุมปาก ชอบใจที่น้องถามจี้จุด

“เอางี้… การ Fork มันเหมือนแบ่งถนนออกเป็นสองสาย ใครชอบกติกาเก่าก็วิ่งถนนเส้นเก่า ใครอยากแก้กติกาใหม่ก็ไปถนนเส้นใหม่"

"แต่ประเด็นคือ... นี่ไม่ใช่เรื่องเล็ก ๆ เพราะมีผลต่ออัตลักษณ์ของ Bitcoin ทั้งหมดเลยนะมึง—ใครจะยอมปล่อยผ่านง่าย ๆ”

"คิดดูสิ ถ้าครั้งนี้พวกเขา Fork จริง มันอาจไม่ได้เปลี่ยนแค่เครือข่าย แต่เปลี่ยนวิธีที่คนมอง Bitcoin ไปตลอดกาลเลยนะ"

"แล้วใครมันจะอยากลงทุนในระบบที่แตกแยกซ้ำแล้วซ้ำเล่าวะ?"

“งั้นหมายความว่าตอนนี้ก็มีสองแนวใหญ่ ๆ ชัวร์ใช่ไหมครับ?” แชมป์ถามต่อ

“ฝั่ง โรเจอร์ แวร์ ที่บอกว่าต้องเพิ่ม Blocksize ให้ใหญ่จุใจ กับฝั่งทีม Core อย่าง ปีเตอร์ วูเล ที่ยืนยันต้องใช้ SegWit ทำให้บล็อกเบา ไม่กระทบการกระจายอำนาจ?”

“ใช่เลย” แจ๊กจิบกาแฟดำเข้ม ๆ ผสมน้ำผึ้งไปหนึ่งอึก

“โรเจอร์นี่เขาเชื่อว่า Bitcoin ต้องเป็นเงินสดดิจิทัลที่ใช้จ่ายไว ค่าธรรมเนียมไม่แพง ส่วนปีเตอร์กับ Bitcoin Core มองว่าการเพิ่มบล็อกเยอะ ๆ มันจะไปฆ่า Node รายย่อย คนไม่มีทุนก็รัน Node ไม่ไหว สุดท้าย Bitcoin จะกลายเป็นระบบกึ่งรวมศูนย์ ซึ่งมันผิดหลักการเดิมของ ซาโตชิ ไงล่ะ”

“ฟังแล้วก็ไม่ใช่เรื่องง่ายนะพี่… งั้นที่ผมได้ยินว่า จิฮั่น อู๋ (Jihan Wu) เจ้าของ Bitmain ที่ถือ Hashrate เกินครึ่งนี่ก็มาอยู่ฝั่งเดียวกับโรเจอร์ใช่ไหม?"

"เพราะยิ่งบล็อกใหญ่ ค่าธรรมเนียมยิ่งเพิ่ม นักขุดก็ได้กำไรสูงขึ้นใช่ป่ะ?”

“ไอ้เรื่องกำไรก็ส่วนหนึ่ง...” แจ๊กถอนหายใจ

“แต่ที่สำคัญกว่านั้นคืออำนาจต่อรอง… ตอนประชุมลับที่ฮ่องกงเมื่อปีที่แล้ว พี่เองก็ถูกชวนให้เข้าไปในฐานะคนกลาง เลยเห็นภาพน่าขนลุกอยู่หน่อย ๆ"

"จิฮั่นนั่งไขว่ห้างด้วยสีหน้ามั่นใจมาก ด้วย Hashrate ราว 60% ของโลก สั่งซ้ายหันขวาหันเหมือนเป็นแม่ทัพใหญ่ได้เลย พอโรเจอร์ก็ไฟแรงอยู่แล้ว อยากให้ Bitcoin ครองโลกด้วยวิธีของเขา สองคนนี่จับมือกันทีจะเขย่าชุมชน Bitcoin ได้ทั้งกระดาน”

"พี่รู้สึกเหมือนนั่งอยู่ในศึกชิงบัลลังก์ยุคใหม่ คนหนึ่งยึดพลังขุด คนหนึ่งยึดความศรัทธาในชื่อ Bitcoin แต่สิ่งที่พี่สงสัยในตอนนั้นคือ… พวกเขาสู้เพื่อใครกันแน่?"

แชมป์เงียบไปครู่เหมือนกำลังประมวลผล “แล้วตอนนั้นพี่คิดยังไงบ้างครับ? รู้สึกกลัวหรือว่ายังไง?”

“จะไม่กลัวได้ไง!” แจ๊กหัวเราะแห้ง ๆ แวบหนึ่งก็นึกถึงสีหน้าที่ยิ้มเยาะของทั้งคู่ตอนประกาศความพร้อมจะ Fork

“พี่อดคิดไม่ได้ว่าถ้า Core ยังไม่ยอมขยายบล็อก พวกนั้นจะลากนักขุดทั้งกองทัพแฮชเรตไปทำเครือข่ายใหม่ให้เป็น ‘Bitcoin สายใหญ่’ แล้วทิ้งเครือข่ายเดิมให้ซวนเซ"

"แค่คิดก็นึกถึงสงครามกลางเมืองในหนังประวัติศาสตร์แล้วน่ะ.. แตกเป็นสองฝ่าย สุดท้ายใครแพ้ใครชนะ ไม่มีใครทำนายได้จริง ๆ”

พูดจบ.. เขาเปิดฟอรัมดูไลฟ์ดีเบตจากงานในปี 2017 ต่อ โรเจอร์ แวร์ กำลังพูดในโทนร้อนแรง

“Bitcoin ไม่ใช่ของคนรวย! ถ้าคุณไม่เพิ่ม Blocksize คุณก็ทำให้ค่าธรรมเนียมพุ่งจนคนธรรมดาใช้ไม่ได้!”

ขณะเดียวกัน ปีเตอร์ วูเล่ ยืนอยู่ฝั่งตรงข้าม สีหน้าเยือกเย็นราวกับตั้งรับมานาน “การเพิ่มบล็อกคือการทำลายโครงสร้าง Node รายย่อยในระยะยาว แล้วมันจะยังเรียกว่ากระจายอำนาจได้หรือ?”

"ถ้าคุณอยากให้ Bitcoin เป็นของคนรวยเพียงไม่กี่คน ก็เชิญขยายบล็อกไปเถอะนะ แต่ถ้าอยากให้มันเป็นระบบที่คนทุกระดับมีส่วนร่วมจริง ๆ ..คุณต้องฟังเสียง Node รายเล็กด้วย" ปีเตอร์กล่าว

เสียงผู้คนในงานโห่ฮากันอย่างแตกเป็นสองฝ่าย บ้างก็เชียร์ความตรงไปตรงมาของโรเจอร์ บ้างก็เคารพเหตุผลเชิงเทคนิคของปีเตอร์

ข้อความจำนวนมหาศาลในฟอรัมต่างโหมกระพือไปต่าง ๆ นานา มีทั้งคำด่าหยาบคายจนแจ๊กต้องเบือนหน้า ตลอดจนการวิเคราะห์ลึก ๆ ถึงอนาคตของ Bitcoin ที่อาจไม่เหมือนเดิม

ในระหว่างนั้น.. แชมป์ส่งข้อความ Discord กลับมาอีก

“พี่ ถ้า Fork จริง ราคาจะป่วนแค่ไหน? ที่เขาว่าคนถือ BTC จะได้เหรียญใหม่ฟรี ๆ จริงไหม? ผมกลัวว่าถ้าเกิดแบ่งเครือข่ายไม่รู้กี่สาย ตลาดอาจมั่วจนคนหายหมดก็ได้ ใช่ไหมครับ?”

"แล้วถ้าเครือข่ายใหม่ล้มเหลวล่ะครับ? จะส่งผลอะไรต่อชุมชน Bitcoin เดิม?"

"ไอ้แชมป์มึงถามรัวจังวะ!?" แจ๊กสบถเพราะเริ่มตั้งรับไม่ทัน

“ก็ขึ้นกับตลาดจะเชื่อว่าสายไหนเป็น ‘ของจริง’ อีกนั่นแหละ” แจ๊กพิมพ์กลับ

“บางคนถือไว้เผื่อได้เหรียญใหม่ฟรี บางคนขายหนีตายก่อน"

"พี่เองก็ยังไม่กล้าการันตีเลย แต่ที่แน่ ๆ สงครามนี้ไม่ได้มีแค่ผลกำไร มันกระทบศรัทธาของชุมชน Bitcoin ทั้งหมดด้วย"

"ถ้าชาวเน็ตเลิกเชื่อมั่น หรือคนนอกมองว่าพวกเราทะเลาะกันเองเหมือนเด็กแย่งของเล่น ต่อให้ฝั่งไหนชนะ ก็อาจไม่มีผู้ใช้เหลือให้ฉลอง”

แล้วสายตาแจ๊กก็ปะทะกับกระทู้ใหม่ที่เด้งขึ้นมาบนหน้าฟอรัม

“โรเจอร์ แวร์ ประกาศ: ถ้าไม่เพิ่ม Blocksize เราจะฟอร์กเป็น Bitcoin ที่แท้จริง!”

ตัวหนังสือหนาแปะอยู่ตรงนั้นส่งแรงสั่นสะเทือนราวกับจะดึงคนในวงการให้ต้องเลือกข้างกันแบบไม่อาจกลับหลังได้

แจ๊กเอื้อมมือปิดแล็ปท็อปช้า ๆ คล้ายยอมรับความจริงว่าหนทางประนีประนอมอาจไม่มีอีกแล้ว..

“สงครามนี่คงใกล้ระเบิดเต็มทีล่ะนะ” เขาลุกจากเก้าอี้ สะพายเป้ พึมพำกับตัวเองขณะมองกาแฟดำที่เหลือครึ่งแก้ว “ถ้าพวกเขาฟอร์กจริง โลกคริปโตฯ ที่เราเคยรู้จักอาจไม่มีวันเหมือนเดิมอีกต่อไป”

เขามองออกไปนอกหน้าต่าง แสงแดดที่แผดเผาราวกับกำลังบอกว่า.. อนาคตของ Bitcoin อยู่ในจุดที่เส้นแบ่งระหว่างชัยชนะกับความล่มสลายเริ่มพร่าเลือน... และอาจไม่มีทางย้อนกลับ

ก่อนเดินออกจากร้าน เขากดส่งข้อความสั้น ๆ ถึงแชมป์

“เตรียมใจกับความปั่นป่วนไว้ให้ดี ไม่แน่ว่าเราอาจจะได้เห็น Bitcoin แตกเป็นหลายสาย.. ใครจะอยู่ใครจะไปไม่รู้เหมือนกัน แต่เรื่องนี้คงไม่จบง่าย ๆ แน่”

แจ๊กผลักประตูออกไปพบกับแดดจัดที่เหมือนแผดเผากว่าเดิม พายุร้อนไม่ได้มาแค่ในรูปความร้อนกลางกรุง แต่มาในรูป “สงคราม Blocksize” ที่พร้อมจะฉีกชุมชนคริปโตออกเป็นฝักฝ่าย และอาจลามบานปลายจนกลายเป็นศึกประวัติศาสตร์

ทว่าสิ่งที่ค้างคาใจกลับเป็นคำถามนั้น…

เมื่อเครือข่ายแบ่งเป็นหลายสายแล้ว เหรียญไหนจะเป็น Bitcoin จริง?

หรือบางที... ในโลกที่ใครก็ Fork ได้ตามใจ เราจะไม่มีวันได้เห็น “Bitcoin หนึ่งเดียว” อีกต่อไป?

คำถามที่ไม่มีใครตอบได้ชัดนี้ส่องประกายอยู่ตรงปลายทาง ราวกับป้ายเตือนว่า “อันตรายข้างหน้า” และคนในชุมชนทั้งหมดกำลังจะต้องเผชิญ…

โดยไม่มีใครมั่นใจเลยว่าจะรอด หรือจะแตกสลายไปก่อนกันแน่...

สองเส้นทาง (The Forked Path)

กลางปี 2017 ท้องฟ้าเหนือบุรีรัมย์ยังคงคุกรุ่นด้วยไอแดดและความร้อนแรงของสงคราม Blocksize แจ๊ก กู้ดเดย์ ก้าวเข้ามาในคาเฟ่เล็ก ๆ แห่งหนึ่งในย่านเทศบาลด้วยสีหน้าครุ่นคิด เขาพยายามมองหามุมสงบสำหรับนั่งตั้งหลักในโลกความเป็นจริง ก่อนจะจมดิ่งสู่สงครามในโลกดิจิทัลบนฟอรัม Bitcointalk อีกครั้ง

กลิ่นกาแฟคั่วเข้มลอยกระทบจมูก แจ๊กสั่งกาแฟดำแก้วโปรดแล้วปลีกตัวมาที่โต๊ะริมกระจก กระจกบานนั้นสะท้อนแสงอาทิตย์จัดจ้า ราวกับจะบอกว่าวันนี้คงไม่มีใครหนีความร้อนที่กำลังแผดเผา ทั้งในอากาศและในชุมชน Bitcoin ได้พ้น

เขาเปิดแล็ปท็อปขึ้น ล็อกอินเข้า Bitcointalk.org ตามเคย ข้อความและกระทู้มากมายกระหน่ำแจ้งเตือน ไม่ต่างอะไรจากสมรภูมิคำพูดที่ไม่มีวันหลับ “Hong Kong Agreement ล้มเหลวจริงหรือ?” “UASF คือปฏิวัติโดย Node?” เหล่านี้ล้วนสะท้อนความไม่แน่นอนในชุมชน Bitcoin ที่ตอนนี้ ดูคล้ายจะถึงจุดแตกหักเต็มที...

“ทั้งที่ตอนนั้นเราก็พยายามกันแทบตาย…” แจ๊กพึมพำ มองจอด้วยสายตาเหนื่อยใจพร้อมภาพความทรงจำย้อนกลับเข้าในหัว เขายังจำการประชุมที่ฮ่องกงเมื่อต้นปี 2016 ได้แม่น ยามนั้นความหวังในการประนีประนอมระหว่าง Big Block และ Small Block ดูเป็นไปได้ หากแต่กลายเป็นละครฉากใหญ่ที่จบลงโดยไม่มีใครยอมถอย...

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...การประชุม Hong Kong Agreement (2016)

ภายในห้องประชุมหรูของโรงแรมใจกลางย่านธุรกิจฮ่องกง บรรยากาศตึงเครียดยิ่งกว่าการเจรจาสงบศึกในสมัยโบราณ

โรเจอร์ แวร์ ยืนเสนอว่า “การเพิ่ม Blocksize สำคัญต่ออนาคตของ Bitcoin — เราอยากให้คนทั่วไปเข้าถึงได้โดยไม่ต้องจ่ายค่าธรรมเนียมแพง ๆ”

“จิฮั่น อู๋ (Jihan Wu)” จาก Bitmain นั่งฝั่งเดียวกับโรเจอร์ คอยเสริมว่าการเพิ่มบล็อกคือโอกาสสำหรับนักขุด และหากทีม Core ไม่ยอม พวกเขาก็พร้อม “ดัน Fork” ขึ้นได้ทุกเมื่อ ด้วย Hashrate มหาศาลที่พวกเขาคุมไว้

ฝั่ง ปีเตอร์ วูเล (Pieter Wuille) กับ เกร็ก แมกซ์เวลล์ (Greg Maxwell) จาก Bitcoin Core เถียงกลับอย่างใจเย็นว่า “การขยายบล็อกอาจดึงดูดทุนใหญ่ ๆ แล้วไล่ Node รายย่อยออกไป ชุมชนอาจไม่เหลือความกระจายอำนาจอย่างที่ Satoshi ตั้งใจ”

สุดท้าย บทสรุปที่เรียกว่า Hong Kong Agreement ลงนามได้ก็จริง แต่มันกลับเป็นแค่ลายเซ็นบนกระดาษที่ไม่มีฝ่ายไหนเชื่อใจใคร

แจ๊กเบือนสายตาออกนอกหน้าต่าง สังเกตเห็นผู้คนเดินขวักไขว่ บ้างก็ดูรีบร้อน บ้างเดินทอดน่องเหมือนว่างเปล่า นี่คงไม่ต่างอะไรกับชาวเน็ตในฟอรัมที่แบ่งฝ่ายกันใน “สงคราม Blocksize” อย่างไม่มีทีท่าจะหยุด

แค่ไม่กี่นาที... เสียงโทรศัพท์ก็ดังขึ้น ชื่อ แชมป์ ‘PIGROCK’ โชว์หราเต็มจออีกครั้ง

“ว่าไงเจ้าแชมป์?” แจ๊กกรอกเสียงในสายด้วยอารมณ์เหนื่อย ๆ ทว่าพร้อมจะอธิบายเหตุการณ์ตามสไตล์คนที่ชอบครุ่นคิด

“พี่แจ๊ก.. ผมเข้าใจแล้วว่าการประชุมฮ่องกงมันล้มเหลว ตอนนี้ก็มีคนแยกเป็นสองขั้ว Big Block กับ SegWit แต่ผมเจออีกกลุ่มในฟอรัมเรียกว่า UASF (User-Activated Soft Fork) ที่เหมือนจะกดดันพวกนักขุดให้ยอมรับ SegWit..."

"อยากรู้ว่าตกลง UASF มันสำคัญยังไงครับ? ทำไมใคร ๆ ถึงเรียกว่าเป็น การปฏิวัติโดย Node กัน?”

แจ๊กอมยิ้มก่อนจะวางแก้วกาแฟลง พูดด้วยน้ำเสียงจริงจังกว่าเดิม “UASF น่ะหรือ? มันเปรียบได้กับการที่ ‘ชาวนา’ หรือ ‘ประชาชนตัวเล็ก ๆ’ ออกมาประกาศว่า ‘ฉันจะไม่รับบล็อกของนักขุดที่ไม่รองรับ SegWit นะ ถ้าแกไม่ทำตาม ฉันก็จะตัดบล็อกแกทิ้ง!’ เสมือนเป็นการปฏิวัติที่บอกว่าแรงขุดมากแค่ไหนก็ไม่สำคัญ ถ้าคนรัน Node ไม่ยอม… เชนก็เดินต่อไม่ได้”

“โห… ฟังดูแรงจริง ๆ พี่ แล้วถ้านักขุดไม่ร่วมมือ UASF จะเกิดอะไรขึ้น?” แชมป์ถามต่อเสียงสั่นนิด ๆ

“ก็อาจเกิด ‘Chain Split’ ยังไงล่ะ"

"แยกเครือข่ายเป็นสองสาย สุดท้ายเครือข่ายเดิม กับเครือข่ายใหม่ที่รองรับ SegWit ไม่ตรงกัน คนอาจสับสนหนักยิ่งกว่า Hard Fork ปกติด้วยซ้ำ"

"แต่นั่นแหละ... มันแสดงพลังว่าผู้ใช้ทั่วไปก็มีสิทธิ์กำหนดทิศทาง Bitcoin ไม่ได้น้อยไปกว่านักขุดเลย”

“เข้าใจแล้วครับพี่… เหมือน การปฏิวัติโดยประชาชนตาดำ ๆ ที่จับมือกันค้านอำนาจทุนใหญ่ใช่ไหม?” แชมป์หยุดครู่หนึ่ง “ผมเคยคิดว่า Node รายย่อยน้อยรายจะไปสู้อะไรไหว แต่ตอนนี้ดูท่าจะเปลี่ยนเกมได้จริงว่ะพี่…”

“ใช่เลย” แจ๊กตอบ

“นี่เป็นความพิเศษของ Bitcoin ที่บอกว่า ‘เราคุมเครือข่ายร่วมกัน’ แม้แต่ Bitmain ที่มี Hashrate มากกว่า 50% ก็หนาวได้ถ้าผู้ใช้หรือ Node รายย่อยรวมพลังกันมากพอ”

แชมป์ฟังด้วยความตื่นเต้นปนกังวล “แล้วแบบนี้ เรื่อง SegWit กับ Blocksize จะจบยังไงครับ? เห็นข่าวว่าถ้านักขุดโดนกดดันมาก ๆ คนอย่าง จิฮั่น อู๋ อาจออกไปสนับสนุน Bitcoin Cash ที่จะเปิดบล็อกใหญ่”

แจ๊กเลื่อนดูฟีดข่าวในฟอรัม Bitcointalk อีกครั้ง ก็เห็นพาดหัวชัด ๆ

“Bitmain ประกาศกร้าวพร้อมหนุน BCH เต็มพิกัด!”

เขาถอนหายใจเฮือกหนึ่ง “ก็ใกล้เป็นจริงแล้วล่ะ… โรเจอร์ แวร์ เองก็ผลักดัน BCH ว่าคือ Bitcoin แท้ที่ค่าธรรมเนียมถูก ใช้งานได้จริง ส่วนฝั่ง BTC ที่ยึดเอา SegWit เป็นหลัก ก็ไม่ยอมให้ Blocksize เพิ่มใหญ่เกินจำเป็น.."

"ต่างคนต่างมีเหตุผล... แต่อุดมการณ์นี่คนละทางเลย”

“แล้วพี่คิดว่าใครจะเป็นฝ่ายชนะครับ?”

“เฮ้ย.. มึงถามยากไปหรือเปล่า” แจ๊กหัวเราะหึ ๆ “ทุกคนมีโอกาสได้หมด และก็มีโอกาสพังหมดเหมือนกัน ถ้า UASF กดดันนักขุดให้อยู่กับ Core ได้ พวกเขาอาจยอมแพ้ แต่ถ้า Bitmain เทใจไป BCH นักขุดรายใหญ่คนอื่น ๆ ก็คงตาม"

"แล้วถ้าฝั่ง BCH เริ่มได้เปรียบ... อาจดึงคนไปเรื่อย ๆ สุดท้ายจะเหลือไหมล่ะฝั่ง SegWit ตัวจริง?”

“งั้น Node รายย่อยจะยืนอยู่ตรงไหนล่ะครับพี่?” แชมป์ถามอย่างหนักใจ

“Node รายย่อยและชุมชนผู้ใช้นี่แหละ คือ ตัวแปรชี้ขาด ทุกวันนี้คนกลุ่ม UASF พยายามโชว์พลังว่าตัวเองมีสิทธิ์ตั้งกติกาเหมือนกัน ไม่ใช่แค่นักขุด"

"อย่างที่บอก.. มันคือการ ‘ลุกขึ้นปฏิวัติ’ โดยชาวนา ต่อสู้กับเจ้าที่ที่ถือ ‘แฮชเรต’ เป็นอาวุธ”

แจ๊กตบบ่าตัวเองเบา ๆ ก่อนจะหัวเราะเล็กน้อย

“นี่แหละความมันของ Bitcoin ไม่มีเจ้าไหนสั่งได้เบ็ดเสร็จจริง ๆ ทุกฝั่งต่างถือไพ่คนละใบ สงครามยังไม่รู้จะจบยังไง ถึงอย่างนั้นมันก็สะท้อนวิญญาณ ‘decentralization’ ที่แท้จริง กล้ายอมรับสิทธิ์ทุกฝ่ายเพื่อแข่งขันกันตามกติกา”

จู่ ๆ ในหน้าฟอรัมก็มีกระทู้ใหม่เด้งเด่น “Bitmain หนุน Bitcoin Cash ด้วย Hashrate กว่า 50%! สงครามเริ่มแล้ว?” ข้อความนั้นดังโครมครามเหมือนระเบิดลงกลางวง

แจ๊กนิ่งไปชั่วขณะ สัมผัสได้ถึงความปั่นป่วนที่กำลังปะทุขึ้นอีกครั้ง เหงื่อบางเบาซึมบนหน้าผากแม้อากาศในคาเฟ่จะเย็นฉ่ำ เขาหันมองโทรศัพท์ที่ยังค้างสายกับแชมป์ แล้วเอ่ยด้วยน้ำเสียงจริงจัง

“นี่ล่ะ.. จุดเริ่มของสองเส้นทางอย่างชัดเจน… บล็อกใหญ่จะไปกับ BCH ส่วน SegWit ก็อยู่กับ BTC แน่นอนว่าทั้งสองฝ่ายไม่คิดถอยง่าย ๆ นักขุดจะเลือกข้างไหน? Node รายย่อยจะยอมใคร?"

"เมื่อสงครามครั้งนี้นำไปสู่การแบ่งเครือข่าย ใครกันแน่จะเป็นผู้ชนะตัวจริง? หรืออาจไม่มีผู้ชนะเลยก็เป็นได้”

ปลายสายเงียบงัน มีแต่เสียงหายใจของแชมป์ที่สะท้อนความกังวลปนอยากรู้อย่างแรง

“พี่… สุดท้ายแล้วเรากำลังยืนอยู่บนรอยแยกที่พร้อมจะฉีกทุกอย่างออกเป็นชิ้น ๆ ใช่ไหมครับ?”

“อาจจะใช่ก็ได้... หรือถ้ามองอีกมุม อาจเป็นวัฏจักรที่ Bitcoin ต้องเจอเป็นระยะ ทุกคนมีสิทธิ์ Fork ได้ตามใจใช่ไหมล่ะ? ก็ขอให้โลกได้เห็นกันว่าชุมชนไหนแน่จริง” แจ๊กพูดทิ้งท้ายก่อนจะแย้มยิ้มเจือรอยอ่อนล้า

ภาพบนจอคอมพิวเตอร์ฉายกระทู้ถกเถียงกันไม่หยุด ประหนึ่งเวทีดีเบตที่ไม่มีวันปิดไฟ แจ๊กจิบกาแฟอึกสุดท้ายเหมือนจะเตรียมพร้อมใจก่อนเข้าสู่สนามรบครั้งใหม่ สงครามยังไม่จบ.. ซ้ำยังดูหนักข้อยิ่งขึ้นเรื่อย ๆ

เขาลุกขึ้นจากโต๊ะ ชำเลืองมองแสงแดดจัดจ้าที่สาดลงมาไม่หยุด เปรียบเหมือนไฟแห่งข้อขัดแย้งที่เผาผลาญทั้งชุมชน Bitcoin ไม่ว่าใครจะเลือกอยู่ฝั่งไหน กลุ่ม UASF, กลุ่ม Big Block, หรือ กลุ่ม SegWit ทางเดินข้างหน้าล้วนเต็มไปด้วยความไม่แน่นอน

“สุดท้ายแล้ว… เมื่อกระดานแบ่งเป็นสองเส้นทางอย่างเด่นชัด สงคราม Blocksize จะจบลงด้วยใครได้บทผู้ชนะ?"

"หรือบางที… มันอาจไม่มีผู้ชนะที่แท้จริงในระบบที่ใครก็ Fork ได้ตลอดเวลา”

คำถามนี้ลอยติดค้างอยู่ในบรรยากาศยามบ่ายที่ร้อนระอุ ชวนให้ใครก็ตามที่จับตาดูสงคราม Blocksize ต้องฉุกคิด

เมื่อไม่มีใครเป็นเจ้าของ Bitcoin อย่างสมบูรณ์ ทุกคนจึงมีสิทธิ์บงการและเสี่ยงต่อการแตกแยกได้ทุกเมื่อ แล้วท้ายที่สุด ชัยชนะ–ความพ่ายแพ้ อาจไม่ใช่จุดสิ้นสุดของโลกคริปโตฯ

แต่เป็นเพียงจุดเริ่มต้นของการวิวัฒน์ที่ไม่มีวันจบสิ้น…

เมาท์แถมเรื่อง UASF (User-Activated Soft Fork)

นี่สนามรบยุคกลางที่ดูเหมือนในหนังแฟนตาซี ทุกคนมีดาบ มีโล่ แต่จู่ ๆ คนตัวเล็กที่เราไม่เคยสังเกต—พวกชาวนา ช่างไม้ คนแบกน้ำ—กลับรวมตัวกันยกดาบบุกวังเจ้าเมือง พร้อมตะโกนว่า “พอเถอะ! เราก็มีสิทธิ์เหมือนกัน!”

มันอาจจะดูเวอร์ ๆ หน่อยใช่ไหมครับ?

แต่ในโลก Bitcoin ปี 2017 นี่คือสิ่งที่เกิดขึ้นในรูปแบบ “User-Activated Soft Fork” หรือ UASF การปฏิวัติด้วยพลังโหนด ซึ่งทำให้นักขุดยักษ์ใหญ่ตัวสั่นงันงกันมาแล้ว!

แล้ว UASF มันคืออะไรล่ะ?

“User-Activated Soft Fork” หรือเรียกย่อ ๆ ว่า “UASF” ไม่ใช่อัปเกรดซอฟต์แวร์สวย ๆ แต่เป็น “ดาบเล่มใหม่” ที่คนตัวเล็ก—หมายถึง โหนด รายย่อย—ใช้ต่อรองกับนักขุดรายใหญ่ โดยกติกาคือ.. ถ้านักขุดไม่ทำตาม (เช่น ไม่รองรับ SegWit) โหนดก็จะปฏิเสธบล็อกของพวกเขาอย่างไม่เกรงใจใคร

สมมุติว่าคุณคือโหนด..

คุณรันซอฟต์แวร์ Bitcoin คอยตรวจสอบธุรกรรม วันดีคืนดี คุณประกาศ “ต่อไปถ้าใครไม่รองรับ SegWit ฉันไม่ยอมรับบล็อกนะ!” นี่ล่ะครับ “UASF” ตัวเป็น ๆ

คำขวัญสุดฮิตของ UASF

“No SegWit, No Block”

หรือแปลว่าถ้าบล็อกไม่รองรับ SegWit ก็เชิญออกไปเลยจ้า..

มันเหมือนการที่ชาวนาโผล่มาตบโต๊ะอาหารท่านขุนว่า “นายใหญ่จะปลูกอะไรก็ปลูกไป แต่ไม่งั้นฉันไม่รับผลผลิตนายนะ!”

ความเชื่อมโยงกับ BIP 148

ถ้าจะพูดถึง UASF ต้องรู้จัก BIP 148 ไว้นิดนึง มันเปรียบเหมือน “ธงปฏิวัติ” ที่ตีตราว่าวันที่ 1 สิงหาคม 2017 คือเส้นตาย!

BIP 148 บอกไว้ว่า.. ถ้าถึงวันนั้นแล้วยังมีนักขุดหน้าไหนไม่รองรับ SegWit บล็อกที่ขุดออกมาก็จะถูกโหนดที่ใช้ UASF “แบน” หมด

ผลลัพธ์ที่ตั้งใจ นักขุดไม่อยากโดนแบนก็ต้องทำตาม UASF กล่าวคือ “นายต้องรองรับ SegWit นะ ไม่งั้นอด!”

หลายคนกลัวกันว่า “อ้าว ถ้านักขุดใหญ่ ๆ ไม่ยอมแล้วหันไปขุดสายอื่น จะไม่กลายเป็นแยกเครือข่าย (Chain Split) หรือ?”

ใช่ครับ.. มันอาจเกิดสงครามสายใหม่ทันทีไงล่ะ

ทำไม UASF ถึงสำคัญ?

ย้อนกลับไปก่อนปี 2017 Bitcoin มีปัญหาโลกแตกทั้งค่าธรรมเนียมแพง ธุรกรรมหน่วง บวกกับความขัดแย้งเรื่อง “จะเพิ่ม Blocksize ดีไหม?” ทางกลุ่มนักขุดรายใหญ่ (นำโดย Bitmain, Roger Ver ฯลฯ) รู้สึกว่า “SegWit ไม่ใช่ทางออกที่แท้จริง” แต่อีกฝั่ง (ทีม Core) ชี้ว่า “Blocksize ใหญ่มากไปจะรวมศูนย์นะ โหนดรายย่อยตายหมด”

UASF เลยโผล่มา เหมือนชาวนาตะโกนว่า

“หุบปากได้แล้วไอ้พวกที่สู้กัน! ถ้าพวกแกไม่รองรับ SegWit พวกข้า (โหนด) ก็จะไม่เอาบล็อกแก”

สาระก็คือ.. มันคือตัวบ่งชี้ว่าคนตัวเล็กอย่างโหนดรายย่อยก็มีพลังต่อรอง เป็นกลไกที่ดึงอำนาจจากมือทุนใหญ่กลับสู่มือชุมชน (Decentralization ที่แท้ทรู)

วิธีการทำงานของ UASF

ลองจินตนาการตาม..

1. การกำหนดเส้นตาย BIP 148 ประกาศไว้ “ถึงวันที่ 1 สิงหาคม 2017 ถ้านายยังไม่รองรับ SegWit โหนด UASF จะไม่รับบล็อกนาย”

2. ถ้าคุณเป็นนักขุด… คุณขุดบล็อกออกมา แต่ไม่ได้ตีธง “ฉันรองรับ SegWit” UASF โหนดเห็นปุ๊บ พวกเขาจะจับโยนทิ้งไปเลย

3. ผลกระทบ? นักขุดที่ไม่ยอมทำตามจะเจอปัญหา บล็อกที่ขุดออกมาไม่มีใครรับ—เสียแรงขุดฟรี

อาจเกิด Chain Split คือ แยกเครือข่ายเลย ถ้านักขุดเหล่านั้นไปตั้งสายใหม่

ความสำเร็จและความท้าทายของ UASF

ความสำเร็จ.. หลังการรวมพลังผู้ใช้ โหนดรายย่อยกดดันนักขุดได้ไม่น้อย จนกระทั่ง SegWit เปิดใช้งานจริงใน Bitcoin วันที่ 24 สิงหาคม 2017 ช่วยให้ธุรกรรมเร็วขึ้น แก้ Transaction Malleability และเปิดทางสู่ Lightning Network ในอนาคต

ความท้าทาย.. นักขุดบางค่ายไม่โอเค.. โดยเฉพาะ Bitmain ซึ่งคาดว่าจะสูญรายได้บางส่วน ก็นำไปสู่การสนับสนุน “Bitcoin Cash (BCH)” แยกสาย (Hard Fork) ของตัวเองตั้งแต่วันที่ 1 สิงหาคม 2017 นั่นเอง

ว่าแล้วก็เปรียบง่าย ๆ

UASF เหมือนปฏิบัติการยึดคฤหาสน์เจ้าเมืองมาเปิดให้ชาวบ้านเข้าอยู่ฟรี.. แต่อีกฝ่ายบอก

“งั้นฉันออกไปตั้งคฤหาสน์ใหม่ดีกว่า!”

บทเรียนสำคัญ UASF เป็นตัวอย่างชัดว่า “ผู้ใช้” หรือ โหนดรายย่อย สามารถสร้างแรงกดดันให้นักขุดต้องยอมเปลี่ยนได้จริง ๆ ไม่ใช่แค่ยอมรับเงื่อนไขที่ขุดกันมา

ผลกระทบระยะยาวหลังจากนั้นล่ะ?

SegWit ถูกใช้งาน ทำให้ค่าธรรมเนียมธุรกรรมลดลง (ช่วงหนึ่ง) เกิด Lightning Network เป็น Layer 2 สุเฟี้ยวของ Bitcoin เกิด BCH (Bitcoin Cash) เป็นสายแยกที่อ้างว่า Blocksize ใหญ่คือทางออก

สรุปแล้ว UASF ทำให้โลกได้รู้ว่า..

Bitcoin ไม่ใช่ของนักขุด หรือของฝ่ายพัฒนาใดฝ่ายเดียว แต่มันเป็นของทุกคน!

“Bitcoin เป็นของทุกคน”

ไม่มีใครมีอำนาจเบ็ดเสร็จ ไม่ว่าคุณจะถือ Hashrate มากแค่ไหน ถ้า Node ทั่วโลกไม่เอา ก็จบ!

“แรงขุดใหญ่แค่ไหน ก็แพ้ใจมวลชน!”

(น่าจะมีตอนต่อไปนะ.. ถ้าชอบก็ Zap โหด ๆ เป็นกำลังใจให้ด้วยนะครับ)

@ 7ed5bd1c:4caa7587

Bitcoin เป็นเกราะป้องกันจากการควบคุมของรัฐบาล

ในโลกที่การควบคุมทางการเงินของรัฐมีผลกระทบต่อชีวิตของประชาชน การปกป้องทรัพย์สินส่วนบุคคลจึงเป็นประเด็นสำคัญที่หลายคนกังวล Bitcoin ได้เข้ามามีบทบาทสำคัญในฐานะเครื่องมือที่ช่วยป้องกันการอายัดทรัพย์สินและการแทรกแซงทางการเงินจากรัฐบาลและองค์กรต่างๆ

กรณีศึกษาที่น่าสนใจ

1. เวเนซุเอลา: เมื่อประเทศประสบภาวะเงินเฟ้อสูงและรัฐบาลมีการควบคุมการแลกเปลี่ยนเงินตราต่างประเทศ ประชาชนบางส่วนใช้ Bitcoin เพื่อรักษามูลค่าทรัพย์สินของพวกเขาและทำธุรกรรมข้ามพรมแดนโดยไม่ต้องผ่านการตรวจสอบจากรัฐบาล

2. แคนาดา: ในปี 2022 รัฐบาลแคนาดามีการอายัดบัญชีธนาคารของผู้ประท้วงในการเคลื่อนไหวทางการเมืองบางอย่าง Bitcoin กลายเป็นช่องทางในการระดมทุนและช่วยให้ประชาชนสามารถป้องกันการแทรกแซงจากรัฐบาลได้

3. ไนจีเรีย: ธนาคารกลางไนจีเรียสั่งห้ามธุรกรรมที่เกี่ยวข้องกับ Bitcoin และคริปโตเคอร์เรนซีอื่นๆ แต่ประชาชนกลับหันมาใช้ Bitcoin ในตลาดมืดเพื่อหลีกเลี่ยงข้อจำกัดและรักษาความเป็นอิสระทางการเงิน

Bitcoin ปกป้องทรัพย์สินอย่างไร?

1. ความเป็นเจ้าของแท้จริง: Bitcoin ใช้ระบบกระจายศูนย์ที่ไม่มีตัวกลาง ซึ่งหมายความว่าไม่มีองค์กรหรือรัฐใดสามารถเข้าถึงหรือยึดครอง Bitcoin ของคุณได้ หากคุณเก็บรักษาคีย์ส่วนตัวอย่างปลอดภัย

2. ไร้พรมแดน: Bitcoin สามารถโอนย้ายได้ทั่วโลกโดยไม่ต้องผ่านธนาคารหรือสถาบันการเงินที่อยู่ภายใต้การควบคุมของรัฐบาล ทำให้เป็นตัวเลือกที่น่าสนใจสำหรับผู้ที่ต้องการหลบเลี่ยงการอายัดทรัพย์สิน

3. ความโปร่งใสและความปลอดภัย: การทำธุรกรรมของ Bitcoin ถูกบันทึกในบล็อกเชนซึ่งเป็นระบบที่โปร่งใสและตรวจสอบได้ ในขณะเดียวกันข้อมูลส่วนบุคคลของผู้ใช้งานจะถูกเก็บเป็นความลับ

ข้อควรระวัง

แม้ Bitcoin จะมีข้อดีในเรื่องการปกป้องทรัพย์สินจากรัฐ แต่ผู้ใช้งานต้องมีความระมัดระวังในการจัดเก็บคีย์ส่วนตัว และหลีกเลี่ยงการพึ่งพาบริการจากบุคคลที่สามที่อาจไม่ปลอดภัย

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ในโลกที่อิสรภาพทางการเงินถูกท้าทาย Bitcoin กลายเป็นเครื่องมือสำคัญสำหรับการปกป้องทรัพย์สินและสิทธิส่วนบุคคลของประชาชน คุณคิดว่า Bitcoin สามารถเป็นคำตอบสำหรับความท้าทายนี้ได้จริงหรือไม่? ร่วมพูดคุยในความคิดเห็น!

@ 896c3ee8:e054cc31

I was scrolling through some news articles published by Primal.net/flash on my phone —Bitcoin up, Trump said this or that, accompanied by a screenshot of Twitter. I asked myself: why does social media exist? Is it to fulfill our need for social connection? Is it to show off our thoughts? Is it validation? It wasn’t like this long ago. It was a part of life now it is Life.

Quite some time ago, I was baffled to see a woman being prosecuted in a court of law based on what she had posted on Facebook! Facebook? Seriously, an internet post landing a person in jail? Since when? No one notified me. I thought the internet was just a thing—a toy for us to play with, have fun, and then return to our real life. I remember using Pidgin and IRC; back then, the internet was just a tool. One sudden day, all of that turned into serious business. Early internet, and by extension social media, was a fun place, but now it is a place where real money is spent and real lives are built. I mean, some of the richest companies are software companies—an industry titan propelled by intangible property. It is hard not to miss the early days when one could say absolutely anything in a forum post and leave forever, detached from the filth they spewed. Now we all know censorship, data mining, AI training, and laws getting involved. I cannot even take part in a cultural movement without being tracked and attacked. At some point, the internet attached itself to human consciousness so deeply that it has now become inseparable from the human experience and experience of life. Just like reading and writing, to live a modern life, one must have an internet connection and a social media account. It’s disheartening to think that our worth is often measured by the number of people who 'follow' us.

This attachment meant that there were powers who needed to control the internet. Laws were hopeless on the internet—one could break a list of laws of a particular country sitting from a boat in a faraway land where no jurisdictional police could touch a single fleck of their hair. This cross-border nature made it very necessary for law enforcement to up their game, and so they did. Now, posting something and forgetting it being associated with you is a dream of the past.

To achieve this, they went into a Hail Mary attempt to break human rights written in the declaration they all signed. The right to privacy needed to go first. You see, on the internet, you are not a human—just a fat, Mountain Dew-drinking piece of meat, a data generation machine. Rights mean very little for you if you are a keyboard warrior. No clause in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights said that an account on the internet is a human! So you lose privacy. Since law enforcers break privacy, it looks like it really is not a crime to break it. So, service providers break it too. Who is to stop them now? Law enforcers?

That is just the tip, perhaps even a necessary evil. Breaking privacy only allows enforcement of laws that have been written. There needs to be some mechanism to enforce laws that are not written—the so-called "soft laws" (a term used in international law). If illegal activity is to be curbed, instead of chasing after criminals, why not be proactive and get to the root of the evil: human thought? Here enters censorship. If you don't know about something you won't act on it. If you do not know about guns, you will not pick up a gun. Censorship allows law enforcers to enforce laws that may be written in the future, potential laws. Maybe one day, being on a particular political side will be deemed illegal, so let’s stop it now. Ever heard of a cat chasing a mouse? Censorship is just a mouse chasing a cat. A reversal of cause and effect.

These two factors, coupled with the internet's revenue stream—your attention—ruined the internet. Ads by God are one of the most human things humans have created: “Let us show you what you could be a part of. As you are right now, you seem unfulfilled; let us show you what you want.” The economy of attention is best tapped by creators working on our primal urge for reproduction. The porn industry is a mega titan for this reason. I do not have any bad words against the innovators working in that industry. They are the true and perhaps only industry that uses the internet to its maximum and has great respect for technology and technological innovation.

When I think more deeply about the purpose of social media, I realize I have no clear answer. Why should one show what their lunch looks like? What is the goal of sharing such trivial experiences? Perhaps the dopamine rush of likes and engagement is strong enough to motivate such actions. The definition of an individual gets blurred here. What is an individual person? A collection of social media posts? Or should we emphasize more on your offline version the flawed acne and angst filled individual who subscribes to the weird, concorted philosophy of Proudhon, Locke, and Marx? The algorithms have been determining the future of people on social media. People are worried about losing jobs to a computer now. Since YouTube and Instagram started utilizing attention to pay people, algorithms began to determine who should be paid and what should be paid. The ship of us being under a computer has long sailed.

To answer why social media exists, here is one study that identified ten uses and gratifications for using social media: social interaction, information seeking, passing time, entertainment, relaxation, communicatory utility, convenience utility, expression of opinion, information sharing, and surveillance/knowledge about others (reference ISSN: 1352-2752). Most studies you find will be in line with these. I will not expound more on this; you all know why you use social media, and you all also know why people use social media.

To end it, Nostr gives you certain things that traditional social media and the 'internet' fail to provide. You know what those are since you are here.

P.S.—This is written exclusively for the eyes in the Nostr ecosystem. I will not publish it anywhere else. Link people to this post even from outside; I don’t care.

@ bd50a856:038f487c

I'M NOT IN SCHOOL WHY AM I DOING THIS?

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Isms in my opinion are not good. - Ferris Bueler

OK so like many a disillusioned youth I was a pretty hardcore Marxist back in college. There's a common pipeline that starts as a 13 year old who wished they could vote for Ron Paul in 2008, takes a hard left turn at the first sign of bigotry, and winds up with a pretty badass juche tattoo. The Enlightenment era ideas of an ascertainable objective truth and mankind's control over their own destiny, combined with the complete subversion of the political history I was brought up with felt very empowering. But nowadays I'm not so sure I want to lay claim to any specific point or vector on the political spectrum. 2024 was in many ways a year of reflection for me. I've managed to reconnect with my sense of spirituality after years of bitterness towards the concept brought on by a life of run-ins with religious fundemantalism, and I had to challenge alot of things that for years I've taken for granted both about myself and the world at large. This ideological audit was in no small way catalyzed by my adoption of NOSTR, which with its endless potential enticed me out of the progressive echo chamber I made my digital home on the fediverse and into a new echo chamber: one full of Bitcoiners.

I had bought Bitcoin before, as a way to short the dollar, but I never encountered its ideologues in the wild. At first gradually then suddenly I was making the types of arguments in my head that former me would have decried as pedantic to the point of being apologetic towards the ruling class. And just like that the 19th and 20th century political and philosophical works which I zaelously held as trail blazes on the long and labyrinthine path towards realizing Absolute Truth were cast forcefully into their murky historical context by the staggering success of the first truly decentralized monetary system. In my college days, I saw Lenin's model of revoutionary politics and the Vanguard Party as the only way for a people's movement to legitimately threaten the hegemony of the global oligarchs who caused so much unnecessary suffering. Now I can see how whether or not that type of centralization was a necessary concession then, one cannot in good faith believe it to be so in the age of Bitcoin.

Yet you'll have to forgive me because still I'm sympathetic to much of the broader movement of Marxism. I detest how Great Man Theory suboordinates the totality of the evolution of society to the wills of a few individuals, and prefer to see socialism in a different light. Rather than viewing the movement as a clever trick some cartoonishly evil mustaches and haircuts used to brainwash almost half the human population, I see a genuine attempt by hundreds of millions of people to change the world for the better, forever. Yes the suffering was immense, and many many people for whom the tumult was too much, as well as those who wished to maintain their parasitic lifestyles, fled for their lives it was far from a black and white phenomena. Living standards also skyrocketed over the long run in places like the USSR and the PRC, from literacy to employment to diet, access to healthcare, you name it. But still the narrative of Hegel's Dialectic playing out in the arena of class politics - wherein the oppressed by becoming the oppressors would naturally do away with oppression altogether by following their self interest just as the Bourgeoisie had done, thereby unwinding the knot of economic injustice - has lost its status as the driving force of all of history for me. It's still much more compelling than the caricature of simply replacing one form of centralization with another. Rather its a much more relatable fallacy: taking a truth, in this case the millennia of class struggle which humanity has dealt with since the advent of agriculture, and trying to extrapolate from it some abstract and all compassing polemic that makes it all make sense. Moreover, in the same way that Bitcoiners say, "Once you see it you can never go back," I cannot unlearn just how hypocritical and dishonest the Western narrative of history is. Lying and calling America the land of the land of opportunity when the abundance we've known for our Empire's whole existence exists merely because of stolen land and slave labor. This is not a moralist objection by the way, though that would be wholly justified. The true horror is that people view the US as the model of a self sufficient nation state when in reality it has always been parasitic, even in it's larval stage. And of course the disillusion with every military campaign since the end of World War 2, starting with the grotesque and gratuitous display of power in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, then the fraudulant and deadly campaigns in Korea, Loas, Vietnam, and of course the entire Middle East. Our own forms of surveillance, censorship, repression all staring at us in the images we projected on the face of the Berlin Wall.

I know a little part of that probably rubbed some of you the wrong way. Hey we still were a net positive force in WW2, of course. And despite many differences in historical interpretations, when it comes to Marx's tomes of economic criticism I think the Bitcoiners of NOSTR would find a lot of rhetorical similarities with their gripes about the age of fiat actually share many rhetorical similarities: The levers of control over the global economy had been consolidated by a select view who were spamming them to make themselves inordinately wealthy at the cost of the quality of life for the majority of Planet Earth. The value of your labor is being ciphoned by a bunch of rackateering lizard men known as politicians. Fair competition, the spirit of Capitalism on paper, has been eroded by its those who claim to be its biggest proponents. Forever wars as a business, predatory global economic policies, proles=plebs, yada yada. Although I guess this note would be pointless if I yada-yada'd over the best parts.

THE INVISIBLE HANDJOB

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The landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed, and demand a rent even for its natural produce. -Adam Smith

In the above quoted Wealth of Nations (Book 1, chapter 11) as well as in Book 4 and in The Theory of Moral Sentiments, everyone's favorite economist they've never read paints a complex and somewhat contradictory image of the proprietors over the means of production in his time. He saw greed and gluttony in their souls, but viewed their actions within the context of an emergent system whereby their selfishness propelled the interest of everyone. So, almost exactly how Marx viewed the holy timespanning vendetta of the have-nots of the world. However, in Book 1 ch10 of Wealth of Nations Smith says this:

[The rent] is not at all proportioned to what the landlord may have laid out upon the improvement of the land, or to what he can afford to take; but to what the farmer can afford to give,

In a section where he concedes that the landlords' actions amount to extortion. He also articulates here how through the influence of legislation, the landlord class effectively outlawed collective negotiation on the part of the working class while bolstering it for themselves, resulting in monopolies. Marx cites Smith himself throughout Das Kapital, and lays out extensively this process of the consolidation of capitalist power in part 3 of the first volume. The two also subscribed to the Labor Theory of Value, as did every other Enlightenment era economist... and so do most Bitcoiners! At least they sure sound like they do when they talk about the erosion of the masses' life force by the debasement of fiat. After all if the commodity that is money is an expression of your time and labor, then so must be the value of every other commodity. I've heard people try to glibly dismiss the LTV as stupid, citing things like land, products of fully automated processes... And digital assets. As if land didn't have to be surveyed, and discovered (or won in a genocide). Or if fully automated production processes didn't require thousands of hours of expert labor on robotics and/or computer engineering. Or if all financial assets in general didn't hold merely a hypothetical value as a representation of value wrought in the productive economy. And to be perfectly honest I always found the subjective theory of value to be downright silly, like imagine haggling at a supermarket over a gallon of milk. Yes demand is subjective (and really more of an expression of willing buying power than need but that's a whole other can of worms), but it's wholly reliant on objective factors such as scarcity and the relative difficulty to produce a certain commodity oneself. And when those who corner the market collude on pricing it's not like you even have the ability to "vote with your money". You have no leverage, unless you own a cow. All in all the price of a commodity can't be anything other than an approximation of its objective value based on the average cost of the raw materials and socially necessary labor time, ebbing and flowing with the asynchronous undulations of supply and demand. And maybe a little extra something just to cushion that P&L. OK maybe a lot. Gotta outperform inflation, right?! Was I being glib, myself, there? It just feels self evident from my current perspective, the hollow vampirism of it all. Capitalists enacting the rights to procure surplus value, reinsert it as capital in order to procure even more surplus value, rinsing and repeating, drifting further and further from the corporeal reality of our own survival and swallowing entire generations in the process.

STATISTS BE LIKE...

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The government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem- Milton Friedman

On September 11, 1973 Chilean President Salvador Allende died during a fascist coup d'état perpetrated by the commander in chief of the military Augusto Pinochet. Officially he took his own life for fear of what would be done to him, but it remains a contentious topic. Pinochet's regime was characterized by mass arrests, widespread use of torture, extrajudicial killings, mass exiles, and brutal censorship of his political ditractors. But he cut taxes!!!! And he did so with the council of the Chicago Boys, a group of Chicago University alumni and disciples of right wing icon Milton Friedman. Friedman applauded Pinochet's government for his economic policies and providing a shining example of Milton's take on what small laissez-faire government looks like: Repression of the masses, no rules for the classes.

Pinochet was also a collaborator with the CIA on their project Operation Condor, whereby the funding and stoking of violence and unrest was weaponized to subvert the rise of left leaning politics throughout South and Central America and maintain cheap access to raw materials which US corporations relied on. As a matter of fact, the deep state has an endless track record of resorting to all sorts of crazy measures to subvert the popularity of socialism. This contradicts directly the American conservative view that the deep state wants socialism, and that Trump - who has cooperated in the continuations of these policies with the attempted coups in Venezuela and Bolivia during his first term - is here to stop 'em. The scapegoating and fear mongering of foreign left leaning governments in lucrative regions is a time honored tradition here In the US. All the West has always had more in common with the totalitarianism of Fascism than the East. If you're curious or skeptical about this, looking up Michael Parenti's Blackshirts & Reds is a good place to start digging deeper.

And while conservatives remain in denial about the parasiticism and exclusion their version of freedom relies on, Progressivism, as I see it, is a limping, mutilated, abomination of a watered down version of itself. Democrats for over a century now continue offering the bare minimum that would assuage their cinstituencies in the short term at best, and the exact same neocon policies of war and imperialism abroad, and corporate oligarchy and a police state at home. Yet every two years progressives walk beleaguered to the polls to vote blue no who. And Milton Friedman laughs in his grave. Reminds me of one of my favorite quotes, attributed to president of Tanzinia, Julius Nyere: "The Americans also have a one party state, but with typical American extravegance, they have two of them." https://image.nostr.build/9380dbc6d51a443b76340b46c760e12c9bb0540a170a8f5a2a22847e0bba88c7.jpg

WHAT IS DO BE DONE?

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I found freedom. Losing all hope is freedom. - Edward Norton, Fight Club

If you made it through all that rambling, what is wrong with you? In all seriousness, I hope this was a fruitful glance into the mind of someone who might think a little differently. In a rapidly evolving world, where systems we ourselves have put in place not only constitute the environment we live in, but reproduce themselves through our behavior as well, despondency, rage, and confusion permeate the collective consciousness. But there's also Bitcoin, which to an increasing number - and to an extent myself - represents a successful proof of concept of a new, genuinely Decentralized Ideological Apparatus. One which relies on Mutual Aid and the cooperation of smaller, decentralized and self sufficient communities. And to a certain extent it also represents hope. But it's as much an asset to those who'd prefer to continue feeding on the suffering of others as it is to those hoping for a change. Hope is as dangerous as fear - Lao Tzu

@ 1cb14ab3:95d52462

Tree branches, Rock. 4' x 4 [Boulder, USA. 2016]

Introduction

Nestled deep in the forest near Boulder, "Looking Glass" invites viewers to rediscover the quiet beauty of overlooked natural details. By framing the play of light, texture, and shadow through a 4-foot circular lens, the piece shifts focus to the microcosms of the forest, drawing attention to a small and overlooked waterfall.

Site & Placement

The lens is perched amid a cluster of trees, emphasizing a quiet patch of the forest that often goes unnoticed. Positioned 22 feet from the lens, a carefully placed bench offers a perfect vantage point, guiding visitors to linger, observe, and absorb the layered simplicity of the scene.

Impermanence & Integration

True to the ethos of the Earth Lens series, Looking Glass exists only briefly. Its natural materials—branches, wood, and rock—blend seamlessly into the forest and will eventually be reclaimed by it. The fleeting presence of the lens reflects the transient beauty of life, encouraging viewers to appreciate the details that often escape notice in the rush of time.

Reflection

In its short life, Looking Glass offers a moment of stillness and clarity, a chance to peer into the intimate world of the forest. The work becomes a lens not just for the environment but also for introspection, reminding viewers of the quiet wonders that surround them every day.

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Photos

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More from the 'Earth Lens' Series:

Earth Lens Series: Artist Statement + List of Works

COMING SOON: "Folsom" (Earth Lens 002)

COMING SOON: "Sanctuary" (Earth Lens 003)

COMING SOON: "Platte" (Earth Lens 004)

COMING SOON: "Grandfather" (Earth Lens 005)

COMING SOON: "Chongming" (Earth Lens 006)

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More from Hes

Art

Store

Travel Guides

Photography

Writings

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All images are credit of Hes, but you are free to download and use for any purpose. If you find joy from my art, please feel free to send a zap. Enjoy life on a Bitcoin standard.

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

Table Of Content

• Rollercoaster Rides

• The Impact of Macroeconomic Forces

• Short-term Projections

• Ethereum's Steady Stance

• Week-on-week Comparisons

• Altcoins in Focus

• The Laggards

• Market Overview

• Conclusion

• FAQ

September has once again proven itself to be a tumultuous month for the world's most prominent cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC). This month-long rollercoaster ride has historical roots, as September has historically been a challenging period for Bitcoin. However, the first two-thirds of the month showcased remarkable progress, raising expectations. But the recent resurgence of the US dollar has cast a shadow over the entire crypto market, leading to uncertainty among investors and traders.

Rollercoaster Rides

As the calendar pages flipped through September, Bitcoin embarked on a rollercoaster ride that left many in the crypto community holding their breath. Over the weekend, Bitcoin witnessed a significant dip, eroding a substantial portion of its gains for the month. Sunday's trading session saw the BTC/USDT pair drop by 1.2%, closing at $26,250. Monday's early trades further exacerbated the bearish trend, pushing the pair below $26,150. These rapid fluctuations in Bitcoin's value have been a hallmark of its journey in recent weeks.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Forces

In addition to its internal dynamics, Bitcoin has been significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly the policies and guidance provided by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Last week, the Fed's unexpected hawkish stance sent shockwaves through financial markets, including the crypto sphere. This policy shift had an adverse effect on risk-on trading sentiment, causing investors to reevaluate their strategies. As the month approaches its conclusion, a less eventful macroeconomic calendar might imply reduced volatility in the coming days. However, the lingering impact of the Fed's decisions remains a source of uncertainty.

Short-term Projections

To gain insights into Bitcoin's short-term trajectory, market analysts have turned to Binance's order book analysis. According to their assessment, a support line appears to be forming at the $25,000 mark, providing some stability in the face of recent turbulence. Conversely, selling resistance has been identified at $27,500, indicating a significant challenge for Bitcoin's upward momentum. These levels are likely to play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin's path in the immediate future, with traders closely monitoring any breaches or rebounds.

Ethereum's Steady Stance

In contrast to Bitcoin's rollercoaster performance, Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has demonstrated a more stable trajectory over the past few days. While Saturday saw minimal fluctuations, Sunday's trades witnessed a modest 0.8% dip, settling at $1,580. As of Monday, Ethereum has maintained this position, indicating resilience in the face of market turbulence. Ethereum's stability, as compared to Bitcoin's wild swings, underscores the unique dynamics at play within the broader cryptocurrency market.

Week-on-week Comparisons

Examining the performance of these two leading cryptocurrencies over the course of the week reveals intriguing trends. Bitcoin has experienced a 2% decline in its value, signaling the challenges it faced amid a shifting financial landscape. Meanwhile, Ethereum has faced a slightly more significant drop of over 3%. These fluctuations underscore the inherent volatility of the crypto market, even among its most prominent players.

Altcoins in Focus

Beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, the broader altcoin spectrum presents a diverse set of performances. One standout performer has been Solana (SOL), which surged ahead by an impressive 1.75% in the past seven days. This remarkable growth has garnered the attention of investors and enthusiasts alike. Additionally, Ripple (XRP) has maintained positive momentum, adding approximately 0.8% to its value. These altcoins' resilience serves as a testament to the unique dynamics within the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

The Laggards

However, not all altcoins have been able to escape the gravitational pull of Bitcoin's performance. Prominent digital assets such as Binance's BNB token, Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Polygon (MATIC) have mirrored Bitcoin's downward trend. These digital assets have seen marginal losses in terms of their respective market capitalizations, underscoring the interconnectedness of the cryptocurrency market.

Market Overview

At present, the global cryptocurrency market cap stands at an impressive $1.04 trillion, signifying the substantial size and influence of the digital asset market. Bitcoin continues to command a dominant position, with a market dominance of 49.9%. This reaffirms Bitcoin's status as the undisputed leader in the digital asset space, despite the challenges it faces in September.

Conclusion

As September draws to a close, the battle between Bitcoin and the resurgent US dollar remains uncertain. The interplay between internal dynamics, macroeconomic factors, and market sentiment will continue to shape the crypto landscape in the days ahead. Traders and enthusiasts alike will be watching closely to discern the next moves in this high-stakes confrontation. As the dust settles, the cryptocurrency market will likely reveal new trends and opportunities for those who can navigate these uncertain waters with agility and insight.

FAQ

Why is September historically challenging for Bitcoin? September has traditionally been a tough month for Bitcoin, with factors like market sentiment and macroeconomic forces contributing to its volatility during this period.

How is the US dollar impacting Bitcoin's recent performance? The resurgence of the US dollar has cast a shadow over the crypto market, leading to uncertainty and impacting Bitcoin's value.

What are the short-term projections for Bitcoin and Ethereum? Short-term projections for Bitcoin suggest a support line at $25,000 and resistance at $27,500, while Ethereum has maintained relative stability.

Which altcoins have performed well recently? Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) have shown positive momentum, but some prominent altcoins have followed Bitcoin's downward trend.

That's all for today

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

@ 403fc3fb:1d1c404c

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@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

“Bitcoin is a clock with a new concept of time – block height – synchronously marking depletion of the most valuable resource in the universe, our time.” - Ross Stevens

'The fact that billions of working men and women must sacrifice 40+ years of their time, energy, health, and focus to gain access to fiat currencies that central banks can replicate with a keystroke is injustice on the largest scale humanity has ever seen. It is theft. Bitcoin' - Bitcoin for Freedom

'Billions of people will watch the generational opportunity to own 1 whole Bitcoin slip through their fingers and never return. There will be less than 500,000 whole-coiners in the world, which will continue to drop, regardless of how many people wish they had one. This is wealth based on math.' Wealth Theory

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

Happy New Year fam!🧡 Here's to a year filled with love, health, and wonderful Bitcoin moments.

Now before I am going to start with the Weekly Recap I want to share what is happening with MiCA / Travel Rule in the EU. The EU is back with more attacks on our freedom. Their 2025 MiCA and TravelRule regulations are just another step to control and surveil our financial lives. This is a good thread on what’s happening with MiCA in the EU. To make it even more specific, a thread worth your time especially if you're in Europe. x.com/ferenckovacs/status/1873278442600325235

To sum it up. The EU is cracking down on freedom while America is on the verge of an unprecedented pro-Bitcoin administration. The EU is going to be left behind again (!) because of a lack of Bitcoin education. That's why I am writing my Weekly Recaps and created this account (Bitcoin Friday). Change the world through Bitcoin education.

On the 24th of December: ➡️Michael Saylor is not fucking around. MicroStrategy just said that they want to raise the authorized share count by 10 BILLION. They currently have 330 million shares outstanding, meaning this could increase the share count by 3,000%. Microstrategy now owns 444.000 Bitcoin. That is as much as China, the US, and the UK combined. Madness! Key proposals include: 1. Increasing authorized Class A shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion to support future capital raising. 2. Increasing authorized preferred shares from 5 million to 1.005 billion to expand financing options. 3. Amending the 2023 Equity Incentive Plan to provide automatic equity awards for new directors joining the Board.

➡️While others are selling, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF bought $32 million in BTC yesterday.

➡️The value of Metaplanet’s Bitcoin treasury is now 12x larger than the market cap of the entire company in April. Metaplanet is using Saylor's playbook. All 1,761.99 of Metaplanet’s BTC are verifiable on the chain.

➡️The Bank of Italy identifies Bitcoin P2P services as "crime-as-a-service", due to their alleged use in money laundering operations. Ma figura di merda! Don't let them frame regular Bitcoin usage as criminal. You have a right to freedom of transaction, privacy, and self-custody. Oh on a side note. They should be banning the "crime-as-a-service" Euro then - which constitutes 98.5% of illicit money laundering compared to Bitcoin, cazzos!

➡️Less than 1.2 million Bitcoin left to mine! Tick-tock, next block! (foto)

➡️Publicly traded Matador Technologies Inc. approves to purchase of $4.5 million Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

➡️South African parliament member Mzwanele Manyi said "Bitcoin is coming in full force. It will devalue gold. It's unstoppable."

On the 25th of December: ➡️Russia is using BITCOIN in foreign trade, says finance minister - Reuters Finance Minister: "Such transactions are already occurring. We believe they should be expanded and developed further. I am confident this will happen next year". From last week: "Russia lawmakers were this week revealed to be pushing the country to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve... Vladimir Putin praised bitcoin as an alternative to FX reserves following the seizure of its funds by Western governments." I guess banning them from SWIFT wasn’t the greatest idea after all.

➡️Jameson Lopp: "If you have a lot of bitcoin you should leave it with a custodian." 'Meanwhile, custodian losses in 2024: Rain: $15M Indodax: $22M Lykke: $22M BingX: $45M BitForex: $56M BtcTurk: $90M WazirX: $230M DMM Bitcoin: $305M' Source: hacked.slowmist.io/?c=Exchange

➡️Multiple U.S. states considering Strategic Bitcoin Reserves - CNBC

El Salvador is just 2.23 BTC away from holding 6000 bitcoin in its Strategic ReserveLike a boss, El Salvador continued adding one BTC per day to our Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. And we are still so early ...

➡️Malaysia’s largest bank says when the US establishes Bitcoin Reserves, other countries will follow with increasing demand.

On the 26th of December: ➡️Thailand has backed a pilot scheme proposed by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra to introduce Bitcoin payments at a tourist center in Phuket, Thailand.

➡️Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expresses uncertainty about implementing a Bitcoin strategic reserve, citing a lack of information on the US and other countries' plans.

➡️Another public company launches a Bitcoin treasury allocating 90% of their cash. Public company KULR buys 217.18 Bitcoin for $21 million for its Bitcoin Treasury strategy.

➡️Bitcoin mining (from otherwise wasted hydropower) is now 18% of all Ethiopian Electric Power’s revenue. The country has turned excess hydroelectric power into a profitable asset by powering Bitcoin mining operations, earning $1B in revenue last year. The move is drawing global investors who benefit from the country's low energy costs, and it's an example of how sustainable energy can drive economic growth across Africa. Source: www.crypto-news-flash.com/ethiopias-dam-powers-18-revenue-through-bitcoin-mining

On the 27th of December

➡️Daniel Batten: 'In addition to 13 peer-reviewed academic papers, there are now 8 sustainability magazines covering the fast-growing story of how Bitcoin is supporting sustainable energy development and climate action. They are: x.com/DSBatten/status/1872475284319949035 Great thread and articles/papers! Must read.

➡️Bitcoin is being quietly acquired by whales through private transactions, per CryptoQuant. The number of CoinJoin transactions has tripled over two years, with many attributing the surge to legitimate investment.

➡️Over 60 public companies now hold Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. (foto) '14,400 BTC taken off exchanges today. This will keep happening until the liquid supply is gone. When that happens you better be done stacking.' - Bitcoin For Freedom.

➡️$5 billion Bitwise files for Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF.

➡️IRS rules demand brokers report digital asset transactions, including decentralized exchanges from 2027.

On the 28th of December: ➡️ProShares files for ETFs tracking the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and gold—denominated in Bitcoin. These ETFs take long positions in stocks or gold while using Bitcoin futures to short USD and go long on BTC, making them essentially Bitcoin-hedged ETFs. Nate Geraci: 'ETF filings last 48hrs… -Strive Btc Bond ETF -Bitwise Btc Standard Corporations ETF -REX Btc Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF -ProShares Btc hedged ETFs on S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, & gold 2025 is gonna be wild' This is de facto how BTC is going to scale to a billion users.

On the 29th of December: ➡️Bitcoin vs. Gold ETFs in 2024: •Bitcoin: $36.8 billion in net flows •Gold: $454 million in net flows Bitcoin is demonetizing gold in real-time. (foto)

On the 30th of December: ➡️This year's investor letter from Stone Ridge did not disappoint. One of the best investor newsletters I've read in a long time. www.nydig.com/research/stone-ridge-2024-investor-letter This year's investor letter from Stone Ridge did not disappoint. One of the best investor newsletters I've read in a long time. (foto) 'NYDIG is about to unlock one of the largest investable pools of capital in the entire financial system—insurance float—and channel it into Bitcoin-backed loans. This is a big deal. More efficient lending → lower loan costs → less BTC sold → increased scarcity → higher demand and price → stronger institutional interest → accelerated Bitcoin adoption.' - Sam Callahan ➡️Tether buys 7,629 Bitcoin worth $705 million for its reserves and now owns $7.7 billion in Bitcoin.

➡️'According to Luke Dash Jr's estimates of unreachable / non-listening node counts, the total number of Bitcoin nodes rose 49% from 65,000 to 96,852 during 2024.' - Jameson Lopp The number of publicly reachable computers running Bitcoin blockchain software increased by 19% this year. This is very important! Noderunners!

➡️MicroStrategy has acquired 2,138 BTC for ~$209 million at ~$97,837 per bitcoin and has achieved a BTC Yield of 47.8% QTD and 74.1% YTD. As of 12/29/2024, they hodl 446,400 Bitcoin acquired for ~$27.9 billion at ~$62,428 per Bitcoin.

On the 31st of December: ➡️A Swiss initiative to include Bitcoin in the constitution has advanced to the review stage in the Feuille fédérale, the official publication for legislative texts and government decisions.

➡️New record bitcoin network computing hashrate: 800,000,000,000,000,000,000x per second.

➡️Bitcoin miners earned $15B in revenue in 2024. This assumes they instantly sell for fiat, which is not the case - miners tend to be HODLers.

➡️Bitcoin Returns since 2010... (foto) "Only" +120% this year, 5x the returns of the S&P 500.

➡️Bhutan now likely holds more Bitcoin per capita than any other country on Earth.

➡️$1.5 trillion Franklin Templeton says "We expect to see strategic Bitcoin reserves added by several nations" in 2025.

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 26th of December: 👉🏽'The US stock market is becoming even more concentrated: The top 10 stocks now reflect a record 40% of the S&P 500's market cap. This percentage now exceeds the 2000 Dot-Com bubble levels by ~14 percentage points. In 2024, these stocks have added over $7 TRILLION in market cap and are now worth a record $20.9 trillion. To put this into perspective, the entire European stock market is worth ~$16 trillion, or $4.9 trillion LESS. The market's rally is not broadening.' -TKL

🏦Banks: 👉 no news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 24th of December: 👉🏽'US existing home sales are set to close at 4.04 million in 2024, marking the worst year since 1995. Sales are set to be even lower than during the 2008 Financial Crisis. The lack of demand for existing homes comes as home prices have jumped over 50% since 2020. Over the same period, mortgage rates have nearly TRIPLED, making affordability even worse. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage is up 100 basis points since September alone, to 7.1%, despite the Fed cutting rates by 100 basis points. The US housing market is frozen.' -TKL

On the 25th of December: 👉🏽Javier Milei announces a structural tax reform that will eliminate 90% of taxes in Argentina.

👉🏽 China withdrew $158 billion from its financial system through its MLF tool (Medium-Term lending facility), the largest liquidity removal in a decade.

On the 26th of December: 👉🏽“Brussels started a department to look for €60M in savings. Its operational costs so far are €30M.” The most EU thing I've ever seen. The worst part? The government can only grow in its current form, which means it will only become bigger and more expensive. Inefficiency in government. A lot of inefficiency, with more and more regulations and no contributing productivity. Welcome to how Western governments function.

Remember the report from Oxfam International two months ago? "Up to $41 billion in World Bank climate finance unaccounted for.". Remember how the Pentagon fails 7th audit in a row, unable to fully account for the $ 842B budget.

But hey, Bitcoin is just made-up money, right?

👉🏽'The 10-year note yield is now up 100 basis points since the "Fed pivot" began in September. In other words, while the Fed has CUT rates by 100 bps, rates in the market have RISEN by 100 bps.' -TKL “As a result, the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage in the United States is now at 7.10%. To put this into perspective, just 3 months ago the average rate bottomed at 6.15%. Buying the median-priced home at $420,400 now costs an average of ~$400 more PER MONTH.” The disconnect between the Fed and what's going on in the bond market is ridiculous. Never in the last 40 years has the 10-year Treasury risen more quickly after the Fed started a rate-cutting cycle. The housing market pays the price (read the first point in this segment)

👉🏽New Chinese $137B river dam project in Tibet, 3x the size of Three Gorges for 300 million people. $137B honestly sounds like a small amount after hearing how much the US spends on foreign wars. They've given Ukraine $183B to date. One war in Ukraine or one dam that generates enough electricity to power your entire country? The environmental destruction will be irreversible and will affect the entire planet. The Chinese see our planet as a commodity and a resource that needs to be exploited. Arnaud Bertrand: 'China just approved yet another project of an unfathomable scale: a mega-dam that will generate 3 times more power than the Three Gorges, enough to meet the annual needs of over 300m people, the equivalent of the entire US population. scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3292267/china-approves-tibet-mega-dam-could-generate-3-times-more-power-three-gorges… The project will cost an insane 1 trillion yuan (US$137 billion) to build and will be located on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet autonomous region, which carves out the deepest canyon on Earth.'

On the 29th of December: 👉🏽'Germany, France, and Italy, the three largest economies in Europe have been stagnating for years. Grotesque overregulation, lack of innovation, and left redistribution mindset replacing hard work & entrepreneurial spirit have their price. What needs to happen for Europe to grow again?' -Michael A. Arouet The EU is destroying the European economy. 'Sixteen years ago, the US and EU economies were nearly equal in size. Today, the US economy is 50% larger than the EU. Europe is being strangled by the EU and its Commission President von der Leyen's red tape.'- Steve Hanke (foto)

On the 31st of December: 👉🏽'Global corporate debt issuance jumped ~34% year-over-year to a record $7.9 trillion in 2024. Global corporate debt sales have DOUBLED over the last 12 years. Issuances have now surpassed the previous record of $7.2 trillion in 2021. This comes as historically low corporate bond spreads have fueled massive issuance activity. Furthermore, the average US investment-grade bond spread has fallen to just 0.77 percentage points in early December. This market the tightest spread since the late 1990s, according to Ice BofA data.' -TKL The only thing I am wondering is who is buying corporate debt when you can get 5% in a money market? Or just buy Bitcoin😉

👉🏽Total US debt is up 30%, or $8.5 trillion since Biden's inauguration, to $36.2 trillion.

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

Some fountain of Jeff Booth's wisdom: Repricing the World in Bitcoin

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Use the code BITCOINFRIDAY

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.

▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃▃

⭐ Many thanks⭐

Felipe -Bitcoin Friday!

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@ 3c7dc2c5:805642a8

🧠Quote(s) of the week:

Bitcoin is freedom of speech in the language of money.

'The five stages of a No-Coiner:

1. Denial (most people are here)

2. Anger (Peter Schiff)

3. Bargaining (Shitcoiners)

4. Depression (Rekt shit-coiners)

5. Acceptance (Bitcoiner)' - Bitcoin for Freedom

🧡Bitcoin news🧡

On the 31st of December:

➡️Impressive growth for Unchained in securing Bitcoin for clients. $9.5 billion financial services company Unchained helped its clients secure over 100,000 Bitcoin in 2024.

➡️'ETH/BTC is down 30% this year—the "world computer" needs a new narrative quickly, otherwise, it's going to fall another 100%.' -Joe Consorti

➡️'Since the beginning of Q4, treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 47.8%, a net benefit of 120,600 BTC to our shareholders. At $96K per BTC, that equates to $11.6 billion for the quarter.' - Michael Saylor

On the 1st of January:

➡️BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF now holds over 2% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist.

➡️MicroStrategy is now down 47% since hitting an all-time high 6 weeks ago.

➡️'$793M worth of Bitcoin was transferred from MicroStrategy-linked Coinbase Prime Custody addresses to unknown wallets, according to Arkham Intelligence.' -Bitcoin News

➡️We start the year with a new low on Bitcoin on exchanges, and 30k Bitcoin withdrew in the last 24 hours.

➡️Daniel Batten: 'Little known fact: The World's largest Sovereign Fund (Government Pension Fund Global, Norway) already has significant Bitcoin exposure. The fund has invested $217 million in MicroStrategy, tripling its allocation between Aug 2023 and Aug 2024. Expect more of this in 2025.'

➡️New research paper published:

https://www.cetjournal.it/cet/24/114/061.pdf

TL;DR: Pairing Bitcoin mining and Green Hydrogen can: accelerate the build-out of solar and wind capacity boost capacity for negative emission technologies, capturing >7.4 t CO2e per Bitcoin

➡️Globalt Investments senior portfolio manager Thomas Martin reveals that the company currently has 10% of its portfolio in gold and that it could increase its holdings in Bitcoin, but probably below 5%.

➡️Hong Kong-listed company Yuxing buys 78.2 Bitcoin for $6.3 million.

➡️2024 is in the books, and the results are clear:

Bitcoin topped the charts again, outperforming every major asset class for the year. Investment returns last year:

Bitcoin: +121%

Gold: +27%

NASDAQ: +26%

S&P 500: +25%

Dow Jones: +13%

Emerging Markets: +6%

Cash: +5%

Real Estate: +5%

Commodities: +2%

Oil: +1%

US Bonds: +1%

Again Bitcoin is at the top. There is no second best.

By simply buying and holding Bitcoin, you outperformed 99.99% of all financial institutions on planet Earth in 2024, without hidden fees and bullshit.

On the 2nd of January:

➡️Billionaire investor Ray Dalio recommends Bitcoin as 'hard money' amid national debt increases, per the Block.

Recently I have seen a Ray Dalio interview. He owns Bitcoin, but he still doesn't understand some basic concepts. Oh well, Gradually then suddenly. Ray Dalio: "I want to steer away from debt assets like bonds and debt, and have some hard money like gold and Bitcoin."

➡️FORBES: Bitcoin mining in Africa “has shown to provide the much-needed revenue to boost electricity infrastructure development, create jobs, sustainably electrify rural communities, and catalyze green energy production.”

➡️The Oxford English Dictionary added the word "satoshi'.

➡️Fold announces up to $30M in convertible note financing, backed by Bitcoin, to fuel growth and fast-track product development.

On the 3rd of January:

➡️On this day 16 years ago Bitcoin went online! Happy Bitcoin Genesis Block Day! This block is unspendable. Satoshi also waited 6 days before mining block #2 so others had time to join the network.

Now that Bitcoin has existed for 16 years! Lindy effect says that Bitcoin would at least exist for another 16 years.

January 3, 2009. Satoshi undermines block 0 on a difficulty 1 CPU and incorporates into the Genesis Block hexadecimal code base the headline of that day’s Times “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on the brink of second bailout for banks”. The bank bailout plan ‘cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the GFC.

Since that day, the network has grown dramatically. Now, millions of people all over earth use Bitcoin. And while it’s great to hear that other countries like El Salvador, Bhutan, and others are embracing Bitcoin, I can’t help but wish my own country 🇳🇱 was embracing Bitcoin too.

Tick tick, next block without fail, Bitcoin continues to provide us with the most significant tool for freedom of speech and monetary sovereignty in the digital age!

Bitcoin is about financial inclusion and economic empowerment.🎯

Bitcoin is secured by the most powerful computing network in the world!🧡

Which leads me to the following.

➡️Just like with other emerging tech, perspectives evolve. Fascinating to see that finally, the vast majority of academic papers are recognizing the benefits of Bitcoin Mining.

Daniel Batten: "87.5% of contemporary peer-reviewed literature on Bitcoin and energy highlight Bitcoin mining having significant, scaleable environmental benefits This shift in scientific consensus follows the same trend as that of other nascent technologies, where first-generation research is superseded by more nuanced work based on better understanding, more case studies, and improved data."

Here you can find the list of those 14 of the last 16 peer review academic papers: https://x.com/DSBatten/status/1874858383523618887

➡️Another one, a scientific paper suggests that Bitcoin could function as a safe haven in relation to geopolitical risk in times of market crashes.

"We find that Bitcoin and the Swiss Franc function as safe havens in relation to geopolitical risk in times of market crashes while Gold and Treasury bonds do not. [...] the protective aspects [...] mainly show through large stock market moves."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1544612324015721#:~:text=Using%20S%26P%20500%20and%20GPR,and%20Treasury%20bonds%20do%20not

➡️Eric Balchunas: "IBIT with its biggest outflow day ever yesterday with $332m, about 0.7% of the total aum. It's so over.."

We had a good run everyone. haha

➡️If you were hoping to see evidence for how simple it can be to do Bitcoin right… here you go. Just buy and hold. Believe me, please read the post/thread:

https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1874978781200588838

➡️Bitcoin's network hashrate increased by 56% in 2024, from 512 to 800 exahash per second.

➡️ Chinese auto-trading platform Cango Inc. now holds 933.8 Bitcoin. The company increased Bitcoin mining production by 56% in December, producing 569.9 BTC.

➡️'Bitcoin's UTXO set grew from 153.4M to 186.4M during 2024, adding 1 net additional UTXO per second.' - Jameson Lopp

On the 4th of January:

➡️'Unredacted FDIC documents reveal coordinated efforts to restrict Bitcoin activities under Operation Chokepoint 2.0, exposing systemic discrimination against the industry.' TFTC

Ridiculous actions were taken with intent over the last few years. We all knew it. I am not surprised at all.

➡️The Bitcoin network finalized more than $19 trillion worth of BTC transactions in 2024. More than double the $8.7 trillion settled over the network in 2023 - reversing two years of declining transaction volume since 2021. Decisively proving that Bitcoin is both a store of value and a medium of exchange.

On the 5th of January:

➡️The largest Bitcoin mine in the world is nearing completion. Riot Blockchain’s new facility is under construction in Corsicana Texas, which, once fully developed, will be powered by 1 gigawatt in total mining capacity.

➡️Ffs nothing learned from 2022, ahumm FTX ahuhmm Celcius.

'One of the largest publicly traded Bitcoin mining firms in the U.S., MARA, has lent 7,377 BTC to third parties to generate yield, representing approximately 16% of its total reserves. These loans are “short-term arrangements with well-established third parties.” The long-term objective is to generate sufficient yield to offset operating expenses.'

Surely nobody has even gotten caught offsides rehypothecating their Bitcoin, right? Right!?!?!?

➡️Metaplanet is aiming to expand its Bitcoin holdings more than fivefold to 10,000 Bitcoin in 2025, says CEO Simon Gerovich.

💸Traditional Finance / Macro:

On the 31st of December:

👉🏽Over $7.11 trillion was added to the US stock market in 2024.

👉🏽'The last time the top 10 stocks accounted for this much of the S&P 500, was just before the Great Depression in 1929…' - Geiger Capital The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 are now almost 800 TIMES larger than the 75th percentile stock.

Not even the Great Depression in the 1930s saw market concentration this high. It's now 50% MORE concentrated than in 2001.

Yeah, it is bad (please watch the video as mentioned in last week's Weekly Recap - Luke Gromen & Preston Pysh). For now, the Fed especially Trump won't let a depression happen.

On the 2nd of January:

👉🏽The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 53 months, by far the longest in history.

🏦Banks:

👉🏽'no news

🌎Macro/Geopolitics:

On the 1st of January:

👉🏽Germany, the economic powerhouse of Europe, is now on the brink of a collapse. Energy shortages. Aging workers. A stagnating economy. What happened to Europe’s strongest economy—and what does it mean for the EU’s future?

(foto)

I have mentioned it multiple times here in the Weekly Recaps. Given its policy instability and lack of innovation support, Germany's decline is no surprise. I wouldn't call it a collapse though. What will be next? The AfD likely will win the upcoming elections. Will that help to rejuvenate their economy, I don't think so. But if they (current and past administrations) keep pushing the same tired policies expect more support for real change like the AfD. Don't get me wrong. Economic despair fuels AfD’s surge, while democracy’s legitimacy falters.

This isn’t just about one nation, it’s a global wake-up call.

👉🏽'U.S. Dollar is now the most overvalued in history according to Bank of America.' - Barchart

👉🏽Lagarde says the European Central Bank has a “big, heavy agenda for 2025” of bringing inflation down to 2% and continuing progress toward a CBDC. Full video aka.

The new Bitcoin marketing ad: https://x.com/Lagarde/status/1874380049442320773

Pardon my English, but these people are unelected psychopaths. Lagarde is almost 70 years old. Should monetary policy be set by people who don't understand the current & future economic trends that will rule society?

Digital Euro means slavery. Study the meaning of money to boycott with an alternative, Bitcoin! The honey badgers are on the move.

Oh and regarding that mysterious 2% inflation figure. Let's say you save $200 a month for 30 years in a savings account. Your total contributions over 30 years would be $72,000.

Here's how much buying power you would have left, if inflation was:

2%: $39,275

3%: $28 872

4%: $21,157

5%: $15,453

There is no reason we should have 2% inflation. Let alone the 4-8% inflation we had the last couple of years.

On the 2nd of January:

👉🏽We in Europe really fucked up. 'Europe has gone from relying entirely on cheap Russian gas to relying entirely on expensive US LNG' - Zero Hedge

They closed their nuclear reactors for this. Get woke, go broke. Oh, by the way, the Nordstream 2 pipeline incident has a clear winner, and it's not Ukraine or Russia.

👉🏽The EURO tumbles to the lowest level since 2022 amid ongoing concerns about Europe’s economy.

👉🏽

Dr. Jan Wüstenfeld: "Meanwhile, Bitcoin's supply growth rate is at 0.8%, and in 172,536 blocks, the newly issued Bitcoin per day will halve again, then halve again after another 210,000 blocks, and again and again. Choose wisely.

👉🏽Reserves at the Fed sink below $3 Trillion to the lowest since 2020. The Fed will end QT in March or April give or take a month. Especially with RRP running dry. Banking liquidity is getting too tight

👉🏽The Chinese Property Market has seen a total loss of $18 Trillion over the past 3 years, surpassing the losses suffered by the U.S. during the Global Financial Crisis.

👉🏽'The US deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to average 6.3% over the next 10 years.

This comes after the deficit reached 6.7% in 2024, the largest since 2021. Such elevated deficits have never happened outside of wars and significant economic crises.

Furthermore, the deficit is estimated to hit 7.1% of GDP in 2025, the 3rd highest among the world's major economies, only behind India and China. Meanwhile, the budget gap for the first 2 months of the Fiscal Year 2025 reached $624 BILLION, the largest on record. The US is on unsustainable fiscal path.' -TKL

On the 5th of January:

👉🏽'The US National Debt increased by $2.2 trillion in 2024, following increases of $2.6 trillion in 2023, $1.8 trillion in 2022, $1.9 trillion in 2021, and $4.5 trillion in 2020. How much will the National Debt increase in 2025?' - Charlie Bilello

On the 6th of January:

👉🏽Hedge Fund Manager Steve Diggle, who made $3 Billion during the Global Financial Crisis, has returned and compares the current market to what we saw from 2005-2007

🎁If you have made it this far I would like to give you a little gift:

What Bitcoin Did:

2024: BITCOIN IN REVIEW with HODL & ODELL

https://youtu.be/-tijL0iD5GI?si=Q7Xsy-mRg4UqxKe3

Good one!

Credit: I have used multiple sources!

My savings account: Bitcoin The tool I recommend for setting up a Bitcoin savings plan: PocketBitcoin especially suited for beginners or people who want to invest in Bitcoin with an automated investment plan once a week or monthly. Use the code BITCOINFRIDAY

Get your Bitcoin out of exchanges. Save them on a hardware wallet, run your own node...be your own bank. Not your keys, not your coins. It's that simple.⠀⠀⠀⠀ ⠀ ⠀⠀⠀

Do you think this post is helpful to you? If so, please share it and support my work with sats.

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@ 1cb14ab3:95d52462

Event Recap

For the Official Stooki Sound Afterparty in Boulder, CO, I took the unconventional venue of a kitchen on The Hill and transformed it into an immersive environment for Toybox and Tesfa’s performances. The space was custom-mapped with projections that interacted seamlessly with the surroundings, turning the kitchen into a dynamic, visual landscape. I added retrofitted props to deepen the visual experience, giving the projections a multi-dimensional quality. This innovative approach created a unique atmosphere, enhancing the performance while blurring the lines between physical space and digital art.

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Event Photos

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Recap Video

nostr:naddr1qqrj6wpkx3u8qscpzpmhxue69uhkummnw3ezuamfdejsygquk99txdv8dly7lsmasw969p70zlj6mnxtyzlk6j0em2tft4fyvgpsgqqqskas47n36f

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Other Immersive Experiences by Hes

Light Pollution [2015]

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All images are credit of Hes, but you are free to download and use for any purpose. If you find joy from my art, please feel free to send a zap. Enjoy life on a Bitcoin standard.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Zvanični vebsajt knjige

Srpski prevod knjige "The Little Bitcoin Book"

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Zašto je Bitkoin bitan za vašu slobodu, finansije i budućnost?

Verovatno ste čuli za Bitkoin u vestima ili da o njemu raspravljaju vaši prijatelji ili kolege. Kako to da se cena stalno menja? Da li je Bitkoin dobra investicija? Kako to uopšte ima vrednost? Zašto ljudi stalno govore o tome kao da će promeniti svet?

"Mala knjiga o Bitkoinu" govori o tome šta nije u redu sa današnjim novcem i zašto je Bitkoin izmišljen da obezbedi alternativu trenutnom sistemu. Jednostavnim rečima opisuje šta je Bitkoin, kako funkcioniše, zašto je vredan i kako utiče na individualnu slobodu i mogućnosti ljudi svuda - od Nigerije preko Filipina do Venecuele do Sjedinjenih Država. Ova knjiga takođe uključuje odeljak "Pitanja i odgovori" sa nekim od najčešće postavljanih pitanja o Bitkoinu.

Ako želite da saznate više o ovom novom obliku novca koji i dalje izaziva interesovanje i usvajanje širom sveta, onda je ova knjiga za vas.

@ dd664d5e:5633d319

Hodling Bitcoin does not make you a capitalist

I've noticed that Bitcoin-mindedness seems to lead some people to communistic thinking because it's a hard-limited form of capital. Marx, like most Bitcoiners, heavily discounted the possibility of economic growth or transformation changing the economy enough to undermine some minority's control of some form of capital.

What few today understand, is that many of the Dirty Capitalists of Marx's era actually agreed with him; they were just disdainful of labor and worried that the workers finding out that Marxism is correct about the nature of capitalism would cause unrest. They were the original HFSP crowd.

This was the basic idea, that Marx had, and that many Bitcoiners would agree with:

Capital is strictly limited and the people that control it can keep labor from attaining any, except when their labor is necessary.

And, as we know, automation will make human labor increasingly unnecessary.

The math doesn't check out

That underlies all of the calculations of "Well, if I just grab this Bitcoin wallet and hodl for twenty years, then it will grow in value to equal half of everything in existence and then I can just buy up half the planet and rule over everyone like a god."

This is economic nonsense because it assumes that: 1) the value of all things remains static over time, 2) purchasing something with money gives you ownership of it, 3) people will always use that specific money (or any money, at all!) for all transactions, 4) there is no such thing as opportunity cost, 5) people will always value money more than any other thing, and therefore be willing to always trade it for anything else, 6) humans are passive, defenseless, and easy to rule over, 7) someone who is preoccupied with hodling an asset steadily and sharply rising in price would ever be emotionally ready to part with it.

All monies can die.

People use money for everything because it is easy, fast and cheap. If money becomes too precious or scarce, they will simply switch to using other things (as we saw with gold). Humans replace tools that aren't working well, with those that work better, and money is just another tool. Bitcoin is more divisible than gold, but that won't matter, if enough of it is held by too few.

This is why there's a natural cap on the price of a money and why human productivity in the here and now is not irrelevant or in vain.

@ 2ed3596e:98b4cc78

Americans can now get paid in bitcoin sent directly to their personal bitcoin wallet. Share your Bitcoin Well Direct Deposit details with your employer (or anyone sending you money), set your bitcoin/dollar split and receive sats instead of fiat with every paycheck. 

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So, when you set up your Direct Deposit with Bitcoin Well, you Dollar Cost Average bitcoin into your self-custody wallet with every paycheck. 

Refer at least 1 friend to Bitcoin Well to unlock Direct Deposit. Direct Deposit bitcoin purchases bring you a massive leap forward to replacing your bank with Bitcoin Well 🧡

Here’s how you can get paid in bitcoin:

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\ Navigate to your newly unlocked Direct Deposit page in your Bitcoin Well account. Tell us how much bitcoin you want to receive, and how many dollars you want to keep with the slider at the top.

\ Next you need to tell us where to send your bitcoin by adding your personal bitcoin wallet! As with everything Bitcoin Well does, we send the bitcoin you buy from each deposit directly to your self-custody. Your bitcoin should always remain in your control; with your keys. 

Once these details are saved, you can download your Direct Deposit details in the form of a void cheque to send to your employer (or anyone else that wants to send you money!).

## \ Step 3: Withdraw remaining dollars or buy more bitcoin later

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Within your Referrals page you can add your Lightning wallet for referral payouts, access your referral link and a QR code with your ref link in it – everything you need to orange pill your friends and earn sats! Plus every time you refer a friend you get Bitcoin Well points, which you can use to try and win 1,000,000 sats through our Bitcoin (Wishing) Well! Share your ref link with friends and family -> earn sats.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni rad

Jun 2018 / Autor: Aleksandar Radivojević

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APSTRAKT:

Kripto valute, kao pod kategorija virtuelnih valuta, predstavljaju nastavak inovacija zasnovanih na tehnološkom napretku na finansijskim tržištima. Ovaj put predmet inovacije je sam novac. Nagli porast interesovanja za ovu vrstu valuta u svetu uticao je na potrebu regulacije, pre svega na nacionalnom, a zatim i nadnacionalnom nivou. Međutim, problem pri regulaciji posledica je nekoliko faktora: nivo tehnološke kompleksnosti sistema kripto valuta, činjenica da se kripto valute tek nalaze u početnoj fazi razvoja, kao i činjenica da bi pogrešna regulacija mogla da dovede do potencijalnog tehnološkog zaostatka za drugim državama. Stoga ne čudi raznolikost u regulisanju istog fenomena od strane različitih država, u nekim slučajevima čak i potpuna suprotnost. Važno je napomenuti da kripto valute treba posmatrati kao inovaciju, odnosno fenomen koji je u razvoju. Shodno tome svaka kritika, pozitivna ili negativna, samo je kritika trenutnog koraka u procesu razvoja, pa je treba uzeti sa rezervom. U dugom roku kripto valute će napustiti nedefinisanu sferu i iskazati svoj potencijal i vrednost, tek tada ćemo sa sigurnošću moći da ocenimo njihov doprinos razvoju društva.

1. UVOD

Virtuelna valuta predstavlja valutu denominiranu u sopstvenoj jedinici mere iza koje ne stoji država niti bilo koji centralizovani autoritet, a čija se vrednost određuje na tržištu u čistom odnosu ponude i tražnje, bez uplitanja monetarnih vlasti.

Postoji nekoliko definicija virtuelnih valuta, pa tako Međunarodni monetarni fond (MMF) virtualnu valutu definiše kao „Digitalni predstavnik vrednosti, izdat od strane privatnih aktera i denominiran u sopstvenoj jedinici vrednosti“2. Evropska centralna banka (ECB) koristi sledeću definiciju „Digitalni predstavnik vrednosti, koji nije izdat od strane centralne banke, kreditne institucije ili institucije elektronskog novca, koji u nekim situacijama može biti korišćena kao zamena za novac“3. ECB je u odnosu na definiciju iz 2012. godine4 uvela dve promene. Izbačen je termin neregulisan, usled činjenice da su određene države regulisale virtuelne valute, ali još važnije ECB prema novoj definiciji ne definiše više virtuelne valute kao novac.

Upravo ove dve promene u definiciji ECB ukazuju na trenutno najznačajnija pitanja vezana za virtuelne valute, pitanje regulacije i pitanje klasifikacije ovih valuta kao novac ili finansijsku imovinu.

Karakteristike pojedinačnih virtuelnih valuta klasifikuju ih u podgrupe. Neke od njih postoje već duži niz godina bez ikakvih potreba regulacije, usled činjenice da njihov uticaj na globalnu ekonomiju nije značajan. Uticaj kripto valuta, kao jedne od potkategorija, postao je toliki da zahteva uključivanje kreatora ekonomskih politika u njihovo regulisanje. Bilo da ograniči ili podstakne njihovu upotrebu.

U osnovi, kripto valute u potpunosti preispituju sistem monetarnog funkcionisanja zasnovanog na fiducijarnom novcu iza čije vrednosti stoji država ili određeni viši centralizovani autoritet. Kako iza virtuelne valute ne stoji država, a sistem funkcionisanja je zasnovan na kompleksnoj tehnologiji, postavlja se pitanje uloge centralne banke, komercijalnih banaka i ostalih finansijskih institucija koje su u poslednjih nekoliko decenije bili dominantni akteri finansijskog sektora.

2. BITKOIN

Bitkoin predstavlja kripto valutu koja je pokretač i nosilac trenutnog stanja na tržištu kripto valuta sa učešćem od preko 40%. Prema karakteristikama virtuelnih valuta ovu kripto valutu svrstavamo u potpuno decentralizovanu i konvertibilnu, a njena ukupna, buduća, ponuda je unapred određena. Nastanak bitkoina vezuje se za članak koji je objavljen od strane autora pod pseudonimom Satoši Nakamoto 2008. godine pod nazivom „Bitkoin – Elektronski sistem gotovine između jednakih“. Satoši Nakamoto, za sada nepoznati pojedinac ili grupa pojedinaca, 2009. godine pustio je u promet prvi bitkoin softver i prve jedinice valute. S obzirom da se radi o tehnologiji baziranoj na otvorenom kodu (open source technology) sistem je nastavio da radi bez potrebe uključivanja njegovog osnivača.

Ukupna tržišna vrednost bitkoin valute u trećem kvartalu 2017. godine iznosila je 75 milijardi dolara, taj iznos je početkom 2018. godine dostigao 232 milijarde dolara, dok je početkom juna 2018. godine on iznosio 115 milijardi. U poređenju sa monetarnim agregatima dominantnih fiducijarnih valuta ovaj iznos nije značajan ( EUR M3 11804 milijardi5, USD M3 13701 milijardi6). Međutim bitkoin posmatramo kao novi fenomen koji beleži snažni rast (tržišna vrednost na kraju 2016. godine iznosila je 15,5 milijardi dolara).

Celokupni proces koji stoji iza kreiranja, transfera, čuvanja i trošenja virtualne valute obavlja se elektronski. Osnovni elementi sistema svake virtualne valute jesu sama valuta (Bitkoin, Ethereum, itd.) i tehnologija beleženja i sprovođenja transakcija. Mehanizam na osnovu koga funkcioniše određena valuta definiše i sprovodi: izdavanje valute; sprovođenje internih pravila koja su osnova funkcionisanja valute; transfer novca i poravnanja. Mehanizam na osnovu kojeg funkcionišu kripto valute jeste decentralizovani mehanizam koji koristi kriptografiju (šifrovanje) u obavljanju ovih funkcija.

Decentralizovani mehanizam podrazumeva da ne postoji centralna jedinica koja izdaje novac, vrši proveru i realizaciju plaćanja, poravnanja, itd., već se ove funkcije sprovode od strane većeg broja nezavisnih jedinica (pojedinaca, udruženja ili kompanija). Ove jedinice zovu se „rudari“ (miners) i oni svojim uključivanjem u online mrežu virtualne valute obavljaju ove aktivnosti koristeći kapacitete svoje računarske opreme. Rudari su pojedinci ili kompanije raspoređeni po celom svetu koji ovu aktivnost obavljaju u cilju dobijanja vlasništva nad novim jedinicama kripto valute. Ovako decentralizovani sistem koji stoji iza obrade transakcija eliminiše mogućnost ljudske greške koja je prisutna u bankama i ostalim finansijskim institucijama. Naime, da bi pojedinac ili grupa pojedinaca promenila bilo koju informaciju u sistemu mora raspolagati sa 51% računarskog kapaciteta koji stoji iza mreže, što je skoro neizvodljivo.

Neophodan element sistema kripto valuta jeste digitalni novčanik (wallet) koji predstavlja softver koji čuva informacije o količini i iznosu kripto valuta koje su u posedu vlasnika novčanika. Korišćenje bilo koje kripto valute podrazumeva prethodno registrovanje novčanika. Pružaoci usluga novčanika su privatne firme koje funkcionišu u sistemu kripto valuta pa je ovaj deo sistema u određenoj meri rizičan, jer se informacije o vlasništvu nad kripto valutom mogu izgubiti lošim upravljanjem kompanije koja pruža usluge ili tehnološkim rizicima kojima je ona izložena7.

Jedan od najinteresantnijih i najznačajnijih elemenata sistema kripto valuta jeste „lanac blokova“ (blockchain) koji predstavlja decentralizovanu bazu podataka sačinjenu od manjih baza (blokova) koji su digitalno povezani na mreži. Ovi blokovi sadrže informacije o transakcijama koje se kriptografski generišu u jedan blok koji se zatim povezuje sa ostalim već generisanim blokovima koji sadrže prethodne informacije. Celokupna procedura na kojoj je zasnovan blockchain onemogućava bilo kakvu promenu informacija u bloku, jer su blokovi međusobno povezani kodom, pa je za promenu podataka potrebno hakovati ceo lanac blokova.

Bitkoin, ostale kripto valute, njihov značaj u budućnosti i primena i dalje su pod znakom pitanja. Međutim, isto se ne može reći za blockchain tehnologiju. Ova tehnologija i njene moguće primene već su zainteresovale veliki broj značajnih aktera na tržištu, pa i država. Goldman Sachs je još u 2015. godini prijavio i registrovao patent za sistem virtuelnog poravnanja finansijskih transakcija koje će u velikoj meri olakšati bankarske transakcije, a koji je upravo zasnovan na blockchain tehnologiji. Blockchain tehnologija nije ograničena samo na finansije. Nepromenljivost informacija čini tehnologiju primenljivom i u drugim sferama. Švedska je najdalje otišla u primeni ove tehnologije, a planovi za primenu u imovinskim transakcijama i katastru su već u toku. Primene ove tehnologije su višestruke i rast njene zastupljenosti u različitim sferama se može očekivati u budućnosti.

3. POTREBA REGULACIJE

Navedene osobine kripto valuta prikazane na primeru najpopularnije valute, bitkoin-a, ukazuju na složenost problema njihove regulacije. Reč je o globalnom fenomenu u čijoj dosadašnjoj regulaciji pojedinačne zemlje ne samo da nemaju zajednički stav, već se ti stavovi u pojedinim slučajevima potpuno razlikuju. Pored toga, na nacionalnom nivou postavlja se pitanje nadležnosti regulacije, s obzirom da još uvek postoji nerazumevanje da li je reč o valuti ili imovini i koji deo sistema treba regulisati (transakciju, vlasnika, posrednika, prodavca,..). Tehnološki faktori takođe utiču na mogućnosti regulacije, usled teškoća u praćenju operacija sa virtuelnim valutama.

Dinamičan rast trgovine virtuelnim valutama u poslednjih godinu dana uticao je i na sve veći broj pokušaja regulacije od strane pojedinačnih država, ali i na rast zahteva za usaglašavanjem i regulacijom na međunarodnom nivou. Dosadašnji načini regulacije u velikoj meri su različiti od zemlje do zemlje. Većina zemalja izdala je upozorenje potrošačima, a neke od zemalja odlučile su se i za nametanje zahteva za izdavanje dozvola za određene učesnike na tržištu, dok je jedan broj zemalja potpuno zabranio upotrebu valuta.

Osnovni rizici koje kripto valute i rast njihove popularnosti i upotrebe sa sobom nose posledično definišu načine regulacije. Ti rizici jesu finansiranje terorizma, pranje novca, izbegavanje poreza, neregulisano kretanje kapitala, zaštita potrošača, itd. Pored toga, karakteristike mehanizma koji pokreće sistem, odnosno akteri i njihove međusobne veze, drugi su osnovni faktor koji definiše način regulacije. Stoga su dosadašnje regulative najčešće bile usmerene na učesnike u trgovini kripto valutama i finansijske institucije koje sa njima posluju.

Transakcije između korisnika virtuelne valute nije moguće regulisati, usled činjenice da je jedan od osnovnih principa virtuelnih valuta upravo anonimnost vlasništva. Međutim kompanije koje prihvataju plaćanje za svoje usluge ili dobra u virtuelnim valutama mogu biti predmet regulacije. Takođe, mada transakcije među vlasnicima valuta jesu anonimne, konverzija virtuelnih valuta u fiducijarne valute najčešće se sprovodi preko posrednika, koji može biti, i za sada u velikom broju slučajeva i jeste, predmet regulacije. U primeru Srbije, kupovina virtuelne valute vrši se preko posrednika, koji za svoje usluge uzima naknadu od 4-7% po transakciji.

Za sada, ove kompanije predstavljaju očigledne ciljeve regulacije. Određene zemlje regulišu i pružaoce „novčanik“ servisa, jer su oni neophodni činioci sistema virtuelnih valuta. Razlog za ovo jeste trenutni, ali u budućnosti možda i izraženiji, odnos obima transakcija između vlasnika kripto valuta (koji je anoniman) i transakcija vlasnika valuta i pružaoca usluga i dobara za te valute (prodavaca). Regulacija kroz pružaoce usluga „novčanika“ nije česta usled činjenice da se ona odnosi na regulacije između učesnika bez konverzije virtuelnih valuta u realnu ekonomiju (dobra, usluge ili fiducijarne valute).

Ubrzan razvoj virtuelnih valuta izazvao je brzu potrebu regulacije, pa su se određene države odlučile za unilateralne regulacije na sopstvenom tržištu, dok je za međunarodni konsenzus i regulaciju potrebno vreme. Međunarodna regulacija biće postepena iz više razloga. Pre svega reč je o promenljivom fenomenu pa shodno tome nije moguće odlučiti se za konkretnu trajnu regulaciju pre sagledavanja i razumevanja celokupnog fenomena. Dodatno, različite države drugačije sagledavaju ovaj fenomen i njegov potencijal. Dok neke države zabranjuju njegovu upotrebu (Kina) druge je u potpunosti podržavaju (Australija, Kanada, itd.).

Razvoj virtuelnih valuta predstavlja revoluciju na valutnom tržištu koja može imati značajan uticaj na celokupno funkcionisanje svetske ekonomije. Pri regulisanju potrebno je voditi računa da se primenom postojećih načina regulacije ne ograniči ili promeni smer ove inovacije.

Budući da virtuelne valute pružaju veću slobodu pojedincu, od njega zahtevaju i veću odgovornost. Naime, transakcija za određenu robu (primer kupovina preko interneta) beleži se putem blockchain-a i u tom trenutku je finalna. Plaćanje tim putem na pogrešan račun tradicionalni sistem rešava zahtevom za povraćaj novca sa jednog računa na drugi u okviru komercijalne banke, odnosno korigovanje u procesu poravnanja. Sistem plaćanja virtuelnim valutama nema ovu mogućnost, usled činjenice da nema centralnog regulatora koji može izvršiti promenu i činjenice da je vlasništvo nad računom anonimno.

Još jedan rizik je kvar sistema na kome su virtualne valute bazirane. Do kvara može doći usled tehnoloških problema sa kojima se suočava sama mreža, pružaoci usluga „novčanika“ ili platforma za trgovinu virtuelnim valutama. Mada stvarni i potencijalno veoma opasni, ovi rizici svojstveni su i trenutnom sistemu pa tako može doći do „kvara“ samog finansijskog sistema, banaka (pružaoca usluga „novčanika“) ili berzi (platformi za trgovinu). Ove kvarove smo i pored regulacija već doživeli, a reakcija je bila podrška države sistemu u kvaru, pa bi u regulaciji kripto valuta trebalo razmotriti i snažniju podršku države u funkcionisanju osnova postojećeg sistema i stvaranju mreža zaštite u slučaju pojedinačnih kvarova aktera na mreži.

Jedina realna opasnost virtuelnih valuta u ovom trenutku jeste njihov neuspeh i krah investitora koji su uložili u njih, što ni u kom slučaju ne bi trebalo da bude pitanje kojim se kreatori ekonomske politike bave. Naime, krah investitora, pojedinaca i kompanija, u slučaju da se vremenom pokaže da kripto valute nemaju nikakvu vrednost, ne bi imao uticaj međunarodni finansijski sistem jer ne bi doveo do lančanog kraha osnovnih finansijskih institucija, kao što je slučaj bio sa krahom tržišta nekretnina 2008. godine. Većina zemalja koje su se do sada bavile pitanjem kripto valuta objavilo je saopštenja za javnost kojima se građanima ukazuje na potencijalne rizike korišćenja i ulaganja u ove valute. Slično obaveštenje objavila je i Narodna banka Srbije samo u užem obliku pozivajući se i usmeravajući građane na obaveštenja Evropske unije.

Jedan od najčešće pominjanih rizika široke rasprostranjenosti virtuelnih valuta jesu mogućnost finansiranja terorizma i pranje novca. Ovi rizici se pominju u skoro svima analizama uticaja kripto valuta, a njihova regulacija upravo predstavlja preteranu regulaciju koja ograničava inovacije. Sprečavanje finansiranja terorizma kontrolom finansija pojedinaca u okviru postojećeg sistema rezultat je prilike koju je način funkcionisanja sistema pružio institucijama koje su zadužene za nacionalnu sigurnost i borbu protiv terorizma. Uvođenje boljeg i efikasnijeg sistema ne treba biti ograničavano činjenicom da je prethodni sistem olakšavao određenim institucijama izvršavanje svojih dužnosti. Naprotiv, druge institucije bi trebalo da, umesto ograničavanja tehnološkog napretka u drugim sferama, podstiču napredak tehnologije u svom delovanju i traže načine za uspešnije obavljanje svojih dužnosti korišćenjem inovacija i novih sistema.

Ni fiducijarni ni virtuelni novac nemaju funkciju sprečavanja terorizma. Sloboda pojedinaca i anonimnost u raspolaganju sopstvenom imovinom trebalo bi da bude jedna od osnova demokratije pa je njeno regulisanje uskraćivanje ovih prava zarad drugog cilja. Sankcionisanje korišćenja imovine pojedinca ili kompanije za finansiranje terorizma treba biti sprovedeno od strane nadležnih institucija, uz pomoć finansijskog sistema ukoliko on pruža mogućnosti za to, ali ne ograničavanjem razvoja društva da bi se te mogućnosti zadržale.

Korišćenje kripto valuta, i anonimnost i lakoća transfera iz jedne u drugu državu koju one pružaju, takođe otežava borbu protiv izbegavanja oporezivanja sakrivanjem bogatstva i prihoda. Još jedan problem u oporezivanju jeste i šta se oporezuje – kripto valuta kao imovina ili novac. Jedno od trenutnih rešenja pri definisanju ovog pitanje jeste klasifikacija prema vremenu držanja valute. Odnosno, da li se valuta drži duži period u cilju sticanja kapitalne dobiti u slučaju porasta njene vrednosti ili se često koristi kao sredstvo plaćanja. Pitanje je i kako i po kojoj vrednosti oporezovati novo stvorenu valutu, dobijenu procesom „rudarenja“, da li po tržišnoj vrednosti u trenutku ostvarivanja prava na novu jedinicu valute (SAD) ili tek po vrednosti u trenutku prodaje te jedinica (Australija).

Takođe postoji rizik i da će razvijanje samog sistema blokchain-a uticati na smanjenje prihoda drugih finansijskih institucija kao što su berze, ali ovde je reč o riziku tehnološkog napretka na profitne kompanije koje zaostaju u razvoju i inovacijama i koje ni u kakvom slučaju ne bi trebalo regulacijom štiti od neuspeha na slobodnom tržištu.

Prvobitni fokus treba da bude na najhitnijim pitanjima vezanim za kripto valute, uključujući finansijski integritet, zaštitu potrošača/investitora i utaju poreza, uz istovremeno ostavljanje manje neposrednih rizika (na primer, finansijsku stabilnost, monetarnu politiku) za kasniju fazu. Pravi pristup regulaciji zavisiće od budućeg razvoja virtuelnih valuta, koji za sada nije predvidiv. Međutim, sam razvoj virtuelnih valuta zavisiće od sadašnje reguacije, pa je potrebno veoma pažljivo pristupiti regulaciji u cilju zaštite tržišta i građana od rizika, ali ne na uštrb ekonomskog napretka.

Za razliku od samih virtuelnih valuta primena blockchain mehanizma ne predstavlja problem regulatorima.

4. REGULACIJA U SVETU

Najliberalnija država na svetu po pitanju operacija sa bitkoinom i ostalim kripto valutama jeste Japan. Bitkoin je u Japanu definisan kao legalno sredstvo plaćanja što je dovelo do brzog rasta broja kompanija koje primaju bitkoin kao sredstvo plaćanja, kao i do brzog razvoja kompanija koje se bave razvojem blockchain tehnologije. Za razliku od nacionalne valute banke nemaju obavezu obavljanja operacija sa bitkoinom, ali je upotreba bitkoina neograničena ukoliko se strane u upotrebi o tome slažu. Kao zemlja sa najliberalnijom regulacijom i najvećim učešćem u ukupnoj trgovini na dnevnom nivou trgovina kripto valutama u Japanu je takođe najčešće bila meta značajnih hakerskih napada i krađa8.

Još jedna zemlja sa veoma liberalnim pogledom na ovu tehnologiju jeste Australija. Operacije sa bitkoinom i ostalim kripto valutama nisu ograničene, niti su ICO9 ograničene, ali se svaka pojedinačna ICO posmatra od strane države u cilju povećavanja sigurnosti i smanjivanja rizika. Poreska politika bitkoin i ostale slične valute posmatra kao imovinu, i na osnovu toga definiše kapitalnu dobit u zavisnosti od operacija sa ovom imovinom10.

Predsednik Belorusije koga mnogi nazivaju poslednjim evropskim diktatorom, Aleksandar Lukašenko, potpisao je krajem decembra 2017. godine zakon čijim je stupanjem na snagu, krajem marta 2018. godine, regulisano poslovanje sa kripto valutama. Preduzeća u skladu sa ovim zakonom mogu da kreiraju svoje kripto valute, poseduju druge kripto valute i vrše sve operacije sa njima isključivo preko berzi kripto valuta. Građani mogu slobodno da obavljaju aktivnosti „rudara“, da kupuju, prodaju i menjaju kripto valute, kao i da ih kupuju i prodaju za beloruske rublje. Ostvareni profit od svih ovih operacija neće biti oporezivan sve do januara 2023 godine, niti će se aktivnosti rudarenja i trgovanja kripto valuta smatrati preduzetničkim poduhvatom11. Ovaj zakon posebnu pažnju posvećuje blokchain tehnologiji pa se aktivnosti zasnovane na ovoj tehnologiji posebno oporezuju. Ova preduzeća biće oslobođena poreza na dobit i poreza na dodatu vrednost. Umesto toga plaćaće porez u iznosu od 1% ukupnog prihoda.

Rusija je početkom 2018. godine predstavila nacrt zakona kojim će biti regulisane operacije sa kripto valutama12. Mada zakon definiše kripto valute kao imovinu, a ne kao novac, njegove odredbe pomak su ka razvoju kripto valuta, s obzirom da su informacije o regulaciji kripto valuta od strane ruskih vlasti u prethodnom period bile pre svega usmerene ka potpunoj zabrani operacija sa ovim valutama. Trgovina kripto valutama kao imovinom, međutim, najverovatnije neće biti podložna porezu na dodatu vrednost s obzirom da će se suštinski posmatrati kao finansijska imovina. U poslednje vreme se sve više i govori i o aktivnostima ruskih vlasti ka kreiranju državne kripto valute – kriptorublje13. Trenutno je nepoznato da li će ova valuta, ukoliko bude kreirana, biti jedna od dozvoljenih kripto valuta na ruskom tržištu ili jedina dozvoljena, ali njeno eventualno kreiranje će svakako biti pomak u razvoju kripto valuta.

Vlada Kanade je prva zemlja koja je formalno regulisala digitalne valute, u junu 2014. godine. Bitkoin definiše kao elektronski novac koji građani mogu koristiti kao sredstvo plaćanja u kompanijama koje to sredstvo prihvataju. Takođe, dozvoljena je kupovina i prodaja bitkoina kao finansijske imovine u cilju ostvarivanja zarade. Sa druge strane bitkoin nije zakonsko sredstvo plaćanja, pa je time njegova upotreba ograničena u kompanijama koje prihvataju da svoje usluge ili robu prodaju za tu kripto valutu. Poreska regulacija transakcija u bitkoin-u ista je kao i za transakcije u nacionalnoj valuti. Sve poreske obaveze nastale iz promene vlasništva bitkoina podložne su već postojećim poreskim obligacijama. Takođe, svaki gubitak ili dobitak od trgovine bitkoinom kao finansijskom imovinom mora biti prijavljen pri obračunu poreza na dohodak građana14.

Sjedinjene Američke Države prepustile su svakoj državi u okviru svog sastava da odrede kako će njihovi građani moći da učestvuju u operacijama sa kripto valutama. Na nivou nacije regulacija definiše virtualne valute kao imovinu i obavezuje građane da prijave ostvareni profit na osnovu operacija sa virtualnim valutama poreskoj administraciji15. Različite državne agencije takođe regulišu u određenoj meri operacije sa kripto valutama koje su u njihovoj nadležnosti, ne regulišući same kripto valute već operacije sa njima koje nisu dozvoljene. Pa tako Mreža za primenu regulacija u oblasti finansijskog kriminala (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network - FinCEN) kao deo Ministarstva finansija SAD nalaže svim berzama koje trguju kripto valutama i drugim kompanijama koje se bave operacijama sa kripto valutama da se registruju kao kompanije koje se bave prenosom ili konverzijom novca i time budu regulisane Zakonom o sigurnosti bankarskog sistema.

Regulacija u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu je u toku i u ovom slučaju je najpre usmerena ka rešavanju problema koje popularizacija ovih valuta donosi u oblasti borbe protiv terorizma i pranja novca. U skladu sa time pre svega će biti regulisane platforme za trgovinu valutama i kompanije koje pružaju usluge virtuelnih novčanika u okviru direktiva za suzbijanje pranja novca i finansiranje terorizma16.

Evropska unija kao celina nije jasno regulisala kripto valute. Usaglašavanje većeg broja zemalja oko regulisanja pojma koji se i dalje razvija i koji i dalje nema jasnu definiciju zahteva određeno vreme i iskustvo, ali aktivnosti pojedinačnih zemalja EU povodom ovog pitanja mogu nam ukazati na pravac razvoja kripto valuta i tehnologija koje stoje iza njih u EU u budućnosti. Početkom 2018. godine francuski ministar finansija najavio je formiranje radne grupe čiji ce cilj biti definisanje regulatornih normi kriptov valuta. Estonija je već zatražila od EU komentar na pokretanje ICO za sopstvenu kripto valutu estcoin, što je možda moglo biti i očekivao od države sa veoma razvijenim digitalnim društvom i e-upravom. Članovi Nacionalne banke Finske objavili su septembru 2017. godine istraživački dokument17 u kome navode da ne postoji potreba za regulacijom bitkoina. U Nemačkoj nije doneta regulativa koja se odnosi na sam bitkoin i ostale kripto valute već se primenjuju već postojeće regulative na „sredstvo razmene“ kako je bitkoin definisan u Nemačkoj. Značajno je napomenuti da pri kupovini bitkoina za euro bitkoin mora biti uvećan za PDV, čime je njegova popularizacija donekle ograničena.

Švajcarska takođe nije posebno regulisala bitkoin niti je na bilo koji način ograničila njegovu upotrebu. Pored toga što su ovakvi uslovi doveli do razvoja kompanija koje se bave razvojem blockchain tehnologije, država je kroz stvaranje asocijacije18 ovih kompanija dodatno doprinela njihovom razvoju i pokazala svoj interes u daljem razvoju tehnologije koja stoji iza kripto valuta. U januaru 2018. godine Državni sekretarijat za međunarodna finansijska pitanja (SIF) uspostavio je radnu grupu za blockchain / ICO koja e pregledati zakonski okvir i identifikovati bilo kakvu potrebu za aktivnostima uz učeše Federalnog ureda pravde (FOJ), Švajcarskog nadzornog organa za finansijsko tržište (FINMA)19.

Nasuprot ovim zemljama, koje regulisanjem ne zabranjuju upotrebu bitkoina, Narodna banka Kine je u septembru zabranila inicijalne ponude virtuelnih valuta (initaila coin offering - ICO)20 i donela odluku o zatvaranju domaćih berzi za prodaju bitkoina. Međutim, regulacijom nije zabranjeno „rudarenje“ novih jedinica postojećih valuta. Razlozi za ovakav stav Kine prema kripto valutama mogu se pronaći u jedinstvenim okolnostima u kojima je regulacija doneta. Naime, Kina se u trenutku regulacije nalazila u situaciji u kojoj se dominantan deo trgovine bitkinom obavlja od strane kineskih građana21, dve od tri kineske berze za trgovinu kripto valutama koje su zatvorene u trenutku donošenja regulacije (Bitfinex, OkCoin, i BTCC) zauzimale su drugo i treće mesto na svetu prema obimu trgovine kripto valutama22, a gore navedene regulacije u drugim zemljama u tom trenutku nisu bile donete. U takvim okolnostima Kina je morala da reguliše tržište kako ne bi došlo do ozbiljnijih ekonomskih posledica kao rezultat kombinacije navedenih faktora. Kako se kripto valute budu razvijale, a različiti oblici regulacije davali rezultate i preporuke za dalju regulaciju, možemo očekivati relaksaciju tržišta kripto valuta u Kini.

Indija još uvek nije regulisala kripto valute, ali sa primljenim iznosom doznaka u vrednosti od 72 milijarde dolara u 2015. godini23 predstavlja poseban izazov za regulatore jer bitkoin omogućuje nesmetan trenutni priliv doznaka iz virtuelnog novčanika pošiljaoca na račun primaoca potpuno netransparentno. Filipini kao zemlja koja se nalazi na trećem mestu liste sa 29 milijardi dolara primljenih kroz doznake u 2015. godini takođe su najavili regulaciju, posebno pri konverziji bitkoina u nacionalnu valutu.

U Srbiji su operacije sa Bitkoinom su slobodne i moguće je slobodno ih razmenjivati za dinare. Kao i većina zemalja Srbija (Narodna banka) je objavila upozorenje o upotrebi kripto valuta24 još u 2014. godini, pozivajući se na obaveštenja Evropske unije. Bitkoin je u Srbiji moguće slobodno razmenjivati za dinare. Za Srbiju je regulacija bitkoina važna i iz ugla primanja doznaka, čija je vrednost procenjena na 2 milijarde američkih dolara.

5. ZAKLJUČAK

Za sistem kripto valuta se ne može reći da predstavlja realnu opasnost, a da to ne bude zasnovano samo na pretpostavkama. Takođe, kao što smo već naveli, najveći deo kritika, kao što su finansiranje terorizma, izbegavanje poreza, itd., nisu realne kritike jer se ovim problemima bave institucije, a ne novac. Da je moguće vršiti aktivnosti borbe protiv ovih problema bez ograničavanja ili zabrane korišćenja kripto valuta pokazuje primer kažnjavanja kompanije BTC za pranje novca putem operacija sa kripto valutama u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, od strane državne agencije Mreža za primenu regulacija u oblasti finansijskog kriminala 25

U radu smo videli nekoliko načina regulacije kripto valuta u nekim od najrazvijenijih svetskih ekonomija. Neke od navedenih regulacija su iskazane formalno, dok je u nekim slučajevima regulacija izvršena jednostavnim prihvatanjem operacija sa kripto valutama. Nakon regulacija i prihvatanja operacija sa kripto valutama u ovim zemljama teško je verovati da će druge zemlje u bliskoj budućnosti moći da zabrane upotrebu i ograde se od tehnološkog razvoja zasnovanog na blockchain tehnologiji i kripto valutama. Ovakva mogućnost svakako postoji, ali je ona verovatna isključivo na tržištima na kojima trgovina kripto valutama bude značajno pozitivno odstupala od svetskih trendova, kao što je bio slučaj sa Kineskim tržištem.

Kripto valute predstavljaju značajnu tehnološku evoluciju u okviru međunarodnog finansijskog sistema. I postojeći sistem zasnovan je na prethodnim tehnološkim evolucijama, pa je tako i u ovom slučaju potrebno pratiti njen razvoj, prihvatiti i primeniti sve pozitivne aspekte. Uključivanje države kroz regulaciju ovde je možda i najpotrebnije. Kao i kod svakog tehnološkog napretka najveći otpor daljem napretku stvaraju oni koji najviše uživaju u postojećem sistemu. U slučaju da se pokaže da kripto valute pružaju značajnu korist građanima na štetu finansijskih institucija ovaj otpor će svakako biti snažan.

Videli smo da su kritike koje se odnose na finansiranje terorizma, pranje novca, itd., neosnovane. Sa druge strane kritike da se ne radi o novcu su prerane. Fluktuacije vrednosti koje kripto valute iskazuju na dnevnom nivou nisu svojstvene pravim valutama, pa ih pre svega treba posmatrati kao imovinu kojom se trguje. Međutim i ovde se može postaviti pitanje fluktuacija valuta u uslovima inflacije i hiperinflacije, odnosno u uslovima nestabilnosti i nemogućnosti predviđanja, čak i kratkoročnih, kretanja na tržištu valute koja je u pitanju. Upravo takve okolnosti trenutno karakterišu tržište kripto valuta. Klasifikacija kripto valuta kao imovine u ovom trenutku možda je i opravdana sa aspekta da se njima više trguje nego što se koriste u trgovini, ali u tom smislu bi i klasifikacija interneta u sličnoj fazi razvoja kao „sistem za razmenu naučnih informacija“ bila opravdana. Upotreba i mogućnosti kripto valuta tek su u ranoj fazi razvoja. Šta one trenutno predstavljaju, imovinu ili novac, može biti predmet debate, ali samo na nivou pojedinačnih zemalja, usled njihove različite primene na ovim nivoima, i samo u trenutku razmatranja.

Kako su kripto valute iskazale otpornost na negativne regulacije, pritisak velikih igrača na obaranje cena, medijski pritisak ekonomskih analitičara, i opstale kao još uvek u potpunosti nedefinisani fenomen realno je očekivati da ćemo u narednih nekoliko meseci videti pozitivne promene u regulaciji kripto valuta kao i verovatno uključivanje berzi u trgovinu kripto valutama kao imovinom. U srednjem roku ovo bi trebalo da dovede do rasta vrednosti kripto valuta. U dugom roku kripto valute će preći iz nedefinisane sfere i u funkciji četvrte industrijske revolucije iskazati svoj potencijal i vrednost.

Posebnu pažnju treba obratiti na činjenicu da se ovo odnosi samo na mali broj kripto valuta, koje će nivoom tehnološkog razvoja najpre i najbolje odgovoriti na zahteve tržišta. Dominantan broj kripto valuta i u ovom trenutku nema nikakvu vrednost, već se u potpunosti bazira na već široko rasprostranjenoj tehnologiji i snažnom marketingu. U tom smislu kretanje na tržištu kripto valuta možemo poistovetiti sa kretanjem na tačka-com tržištu krajem devedesetih godina 20. veka. Početak razvoja interneta doveo je do ogromnih rasta ulaganja u kompanije koje su bile bazirane na internetu, bez obzira na činjenicu da ta ulaganja nisu bila opravdana ekonomskim podacima i činjenicama. Nakon pucanja balona veliki broj ulagača ostao je bez celokupnog ulaganja, ali oni koji su uložili u E-bay, Amazon, i dr. ostvarili su i verovatno i dalje ostvaruju značajan profit.

Ovde možemo napraviti još jednu vezu. U trenutku razvoja interneta moglo se takođe postaviti pitanje njegovog budućeg uticaja na razvoj terorizma, pornografije, i dr. i smanjivanje mogućnosti odgovarajućih službi u borbi protiv ovih problema. Da li su ovi razlozi trebali da spreče razvoj internet tehnologije ili ne?

Narodna banka Srbije, kao i ostali kreatori ekonomskih politika u Srbiji, trebalo bi da prate sve promene na tržištu kripto valuta i regulacije i aktivnosti drugih država kako bi mogli da procene potencijalne rizike i prednosti ranog uvođena i regulacije kripto valuta. Uzevši u obzir moguće legalne načine kupovine i prodaje kripto valuta u Srbiji, NBS bi u ovom trenutku mogla da uloži napore u regulisanje kupo-prodaje ovih valuta i oporezivanje dobiti nastale ne osnovu ovih transakcija.

6. LITERATURA

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Internet izvori:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto#Development_of_bitcoin
• www.blockchain.info
• https://bitcoin.org/en/
• https://coin.dance/poli
• www.coinmarketcap.com

...

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1. Fondacija za razvoj ekonomske nauke
2. Virtual Currencies and Beyond: Initial Considerations, 2016, International Monetary Fund, Washington, USA
3. Virtual currency schemes – a further analysis, 2015, European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany
4. Neregulisani digitalni novac koji je najčešće izdat i regulisan od strane svog osnivača i prihvaćen od strane određene virtuelne zajednice
5. http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/reports.do?node=1000003478 Podatak za oktobar 2017. godine.
6. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S Podatak za septembar 2017. godine.
7. Primer Mt. Gox, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt._Gox
8. Mt. Gox Exchange i Coincheck
9. Inicijalna ponuda virtuelnih valuta
10. https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Gen/Tax-treatment-of-crypto-currencies-in-Australia---specificallybitcoin/#TransactingwithBitcoin
11. https://media.dev.by/decree_media_kit_en.pdf
12. https://ria.ru/economy/20171221/1511414652.html
13. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4989410/Russia-launches-cyber-currency-CryptoRuble.html
14. https://www.canada.ca/en/financial-consumer-agency/services/payment/digital-currency.html
15. https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-virtual-currency-guidance
16. https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2017-10-27/110111
17. https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/14912/BoF_DP_1727.pdf;jsessionid=2F1E2EDBF1180739B5C13906CA99260E?sequence=1
18. https://cryptovalley.swiss/
19. https://www.sif.admin.ch/sif/en/home/dokumentation/medienmitteilungen/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-69539.html
20. Inicijalna ponuda virtuelne valute (ICO) podrazumeva neregulisano finansiranje razvoja novih virtuelnih valuta prikupljanjem sredstava od zainteresovanih investitora. Investitori (pojedinci ili kompanije) ulažu fiducijarni novac ili već postojeće virtuelne valute u zamenu za vlasništvo nad određenim brojem jedinica novostvorene valute, u nadi da će u budućnosti njena vrednost biti višestruko veća. Ukoliko se prikupi unapred definisana potrebna suma u okviru ICO investitorima se dodeljuje pripadajući broj jedinica nove valute, ukoliko ne investirani novac se vraća investitorima.
21. Prema nekim procenama 45% ukupne trgovine bitkoinom.
22. http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/6m?c=e&t=b
23. https://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1199807908806/4549025-1450455807487/Factbookpart1.pdf
24. http://www.nbs.rs/internet/latinica/scripts/showContent.html?id=7605
25. https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/fincen-fines-btc-e-virtual-currency-exchange-110-million-facilitating-ransomware

@ 7ecd3fe6:6b52f30d

I normally try to avoid the noise that is the crypto market only because I've been in that situationship before back in 2016, got rugged in the ICO phase and learned my lesson. There is nothing left for me to take from crypto apart from watching from the sidelines and enjoying the endless amount of schadenfreude it produces.

So every so often I find myself checking in on the ugly step-child of Bitcoin just to see what the left side of the bell curve are up to and you know what?

I wasn't disappointed.

In fact, I'm kind of impressed at the number of times shitcoiners can come up with a new meta to get the degens excited enough to take another spin at the casino, it's honestly pretty impressive.

After ordinals were cooked, the shitcoiners were left to head back to the drawing board, and the obvious pivot was AI tokens. AI and LLMs were the new hotness and try they did but AI tokens didn't really take off in 2024.

Sure there's tokens like NEAR, Internet Computer, and RENDER all with a few billion in market cap and according to CoinGecko there's around 50 billion in AI shitcoins, but for these coins to pump they need to provide some sort of product.

That requires investment and some thinking and who has time for that?

F AI, AI Agents are the future

Wtf are AI agent tokens you ask? Bad question, but I'll edify you anyway.

AI agents are autonomous software programs designed to perform very specific tasks and make decisions independently. Hardly very AI and more repetitive loops, cronjobs if you will.

Using an AI agent and giving a blockchain wallet these agents can interact with smart contracts, dApps and DEXs and start to get up to some shenanigans, or at least distance the agent creator from the actions.

No, I didn't rug pull you, that was the AI Agent malfunctioning.

I guess the killer app for AI agents is plausible deniability when you have to plead your case with the SEC.

As this new batch of vapourware gains popularity, every moron with a ChatGPT pro subscription and a dream is going after this market of suckers. Right now there are several AI agent tokens you can speculate on with a combined market cap of $16 billion according to CoinGecko

It's all about the meta-baby

I'm old enough to remember when the idea for a shitcoin was

• Utility, it had to do something and wall it off, so you needed to token to access a feature, that failed
• Then we went into culture and community, its all about the memes, that failed
• Then it was all about etching in on Bitcoin block space, using that rare commodity made my shitcoin valuable, that failed

Now we've got a bit of a mish-mash of memes + AI utility equals new grift.

To illustrate the unserious nature of this nonsense, AI agents, associated meme coins, and the protocols used to create these agents are among the top five best-performing crypto assets of the day, according to CoinGecko.

For example, Truth Terminal—the agent that started much of this wave—has promoted Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN) causing both to skyrocket.

Fartcoin surged to a new all-time high price of $1.3 and a market cap of $1.5 billion as a result, FML, what a complete waste.

Growth in the FART coin Market Cap

ChatGPT-wrapped crypto scams

The Truth Terminal chatbot is a customized version of Anthropic's Claude 3 LLM, that tweets out random nonsense and somehow shitcoiners take this text as gospel and try to bet on tokens it shills or creates tokens based on its tweets as if it were Elon himself.

Can't wait for Elon to pump your bags, well, let's all dogpile on the random brain farts of a chatbot.

Again this just seems like a way to obscure insider trading and pump and dump influencer scams by hiding the human element behind a bot.

In fact, shitcoiners are creating tokens or sending tokens to a known wallet tied to this AI agent, hoping it uses this data to formulate it's next round of bullshit, I mean bullish tweets.

AI in name only

Still, most agent autonomy is limited. Truth Terminal, for example, still has creator Andy Ayrey looking over it's shoulder before it's thoughts and decisions go out to the public.

So if there's someone watching it, there's someone with access to the wallet and master access to prod it in a certain direction no?

Sigh! Reading up on this all just made my brain hurt and not in a good way.

“Do you want to be right or do you want to make money”

99% of it is a scam and the AI agent wrapper grifts are probably worse than other past trends tbh.

bc at least meme coins promise nothing whereas AI coins try to larp as much as possible to appear legit to unsuspecting…

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) January 6, 2025

This AI agent field itself is still relatively nascent and doesn't seem to provide any value other than being a filter for random tweet generation, and we all know computers aren't good with being random.

Most if not all projects promising AI-powered solutions will not deliver on their promises, potentially leading to significant losses for investors.

But that's the game they choose to play.

The cryptocurrency market is primarily driven by hype and speculation, and AI agent tokens are no exception. Many projects are overvalued based on potential rather than actual achievements.

Is this the future?

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni članak na politika.rs.

06.12.2014 / Autor: Istok Pavlović

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Pre nekoliko godina, pojavila se digitalna valuta – bitkoin. Isprva, delovalo je kao utopija šačice sanjara ideja da ova valuta jednog dana postane glavno sredstvo plaćanja među ljudima, i da se potpuno ukine bankarski sistem i posrednici u finansijskim transakcijama. Međutim, san polako postaje realnost. Sve više ozbiljnih kompanija prima bitkoin kao sredstvo plaćanja, i njegovo usvajanje se povećava iz meseca u mesec.

Kako zapravo radi bitkoin? Da bismo odgovorili na ovo pitanje, pođimo od jednog starijeg problema u matematici, koji se zove „problem vizantijskih generala”.

Vizantijski generali opkolili su neprijateljski grad. Svaki od generala nalazi se sa svojom vojskom negde oko grada, i generali su geografski razdvojeni. Komunikacija među generalima ide preko kurira, koji prenose poruke. Da bi napad uspeo, generali moraju da se dogovore oko zajedničkog nastupa – da krenu svi odjednom u dogovoreno vreme. Međutim, problem je što među generalima, pa i među kuririma mogu da postoje izdajnici – ljudi koji rade za neprijatelja i koji će namerno preneti pogrešnu poruku kako bi sabotirali napad. Kako organizovati prenošenje poruka među generalima tako da akcija uspe, bez obzira na izdajnike?

Rešenje ovog problema postoji, i u pitanju je veoma kompleksan matematički algoritam koji se razvio početkom 21. veka. Pojavom bržih kompjutera, ovaj problem postao je rešiv za kraće vreme. U praksi, ovo je značilo da smo dobili način da se uspostavi potpuno poverenje između dve osobe na internetu koje se uopšte ne poznaju. To je otvorilo čitav novi spektar mogućnosti – a jedna od tih mogućnosti je digitalni novac.

Bitkoin sistem je zapravo kao jedna velika finansijska knjiga na internetu. Vi kupujete prostor u toj knjizi, u zamenu za klasičan novac ili prodajom neke robe ili usluga, i tada postajete vlasnik određene sume bitkoina. Taj svoj prostor zatim možete prodati nekom drugom ko hoće da ga kupi. Sve transakcije su potpuno sigurne i niko na svetu ne može da ospori da su se desile.Transakcije automatski beleži mreža kompjutera širom sveta prema „algoritmu vizantijskih generala”, bez ikakvog upliva živih ljudi, i tako dobijamo maksimalno poverenje. S obzirom na to da su ljudi eliminisani iz jednačine, najvažnija posledica ovog sistema je to što sada sve transakcije mogu da budu bez posrednika, bez banaka i nema provizije.

Ova poslednja činjenica je jedan od ključnih razloga što je bitkoin uveden kao sredstvo plaćanja u mnogim prodavnicama. Koliko god opskurno delovao, bitkoin je zapravo mnogo povoljniji za prodavce od klasičnog novca. Recimo da prodajete elektronske uređaje, gde je uobičajena margina profita oko pet procenata. Banke za procesiranje kartice uzimaju 2,5 odsto. Vi, dakle dajete polovinu svog profita banci, samo zato što banke kao sistem imaju monopol nad plaćanjem i nemate izbora. Tačnije, niste imali izbora do pojave bitkoina.

Za velike kompanije, kojima ne smetaju bankarske provizije, bitkoin je više stvar prestiža i mode. „Hej, pogledajte kako smo mi moderna kompanija, primamo bitkoine.” Međutim, za male porodične biznise bitkoini bukvalno mogu da znače opstanak.

Postavlja se logično pitanje, šta je to što bitkoinima daje vrednost? Odgovor na ovo pitanje zapravo leži u pitanju „šta je to što daje vrednost klasičnom novcu”. Ako pogledamo istoriju novca, u početnom trenutku za ljude je to bilo neko parče papira, ali su uvedene zlatne rezerve kao garancija da taj papir vredi. Ova garancija stvorila je kod ljudi veru u novac, i ta vera čini njegovu vrednost. Kasnije, ove zlatne rezerve su davno prevaziđene i nemaju veze s količinom novca u opticaju, ali ono što je ostalo jeste vera u novac, i samo zahvaljujući toj veri novac ima vrednost.

Ista stvar je i sa bitkoinima. Njegovu vrednost zapravo čini vera. Milionima ljudi širom sveta krv uzavri od sreće kada čuju za ideju da se konačno iskoreni bankarski sistem. Oni vide bankare kao „krvopije koji žive na tuđoj grbači”, i podržaće svaku ideju u tom pravcu. Počeće pasionirano da koriste bitkoine kao sredstvo plaćanja gde god je to moguće, sanjajući da dožive tokom svog života naslov u novinama „Bankari ostali bez posla”, da bi tog dana mogli da kažu: „I ja sam u ovome učestvovao, ja sam jedan od oslobodilaca čovečanstva.”

Naravno, kao i svaka tehnologija u svojoj ranoj fazi, bitkoin ima svoje propuste koji se sređuju. Ako pogledate internet komentare, ima ljudi koji će naći sto mana bitkoinima. Ipak, da smo slušali kritizere koji kritikuju tehnologije u ranoj fazi, nikada ne bismo imali avione, električnu struju, ili bilo koje inovacije koje su u početku delovale nesigurno, a bez kojih nam je današnji život nezamisliv.

@ 2355757c:5ad3e04d

You’ve heard it for some time now, incandescent lightbulbs will officially be banned for sale by retailers in the U.S. However it officially goes into fully effect NEXT WEEK. Americans will only be able to purchase LED lights from retailers across the country. The government began warnings in January, and has since officially rolled out the ban on manufacturing and sale of incandescent bulbs. WHY? LED lights provide more “light” using 75% less energy and last 25 times longer than incandescents. Sounds like a no brainer switch then right? WRONG. LED lights are significantly worse for your health, here’s why.

Our light environment is one of the most underrated, overlooked aspects of health. I will write plenty more about this topic in the future. It is complex at the surface, but in reality the takeaway is simple. Our light environment is one if not THE most important inputs to our biology. It dictates our body’s “clock” or circadian rhythm. When you disrupt your circadian rhythm frequently, you are significantly more at risk to ALL CHRONIC DISEASES. Why? Your are inherently destroying your ability to get restorative sleep, keeping your body in a sympathetic state, creating dysfunctional mitochondria, and increasing oxidative stress + inflammation. Just from light? YES.

“We summarize recent evidence suggesting that circadian disruption may also be a predisposing factor for the development of age-related neurodegenerative diseases (NDDs) such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), and Huntington's disease (HD).”

“... inappropriate environmental conditions such as Artificial Light at Night (ALAN) can cause circadian disruption or chronodisruption (CD) which can result in a variety of pathological diseases , including premature aging .” -STUDY LINK

Blue light stimulates cortisol production, the “stress” hormone that everyone has the knickers in a bunch about in the health community about mitigating through the use of supplements like Ashwaghanda. Here’s the deal, you don’t need to “mitigate” cortisol, you need to regulate its rhythm. Cortisol is the antithesis of melatonin, and the two hormones are meant to perform a dance everyday where one rises as the other falls…in accordance with the light cycles. However, that dance, that rhythm has been disrupted by artificial light. 

Melatonin warrants five newsletters just on its own, but know that the same blue light that stimulates cortisol production also suppresses melatonin production. If you do not produce sufficient melatonin, your body is missing out on a whole host of anti-oxidant, anti-cancer benefits. Melatonin is driven by light, and is the composer of our mitochondria (dictates mito fusion/fission, mitophagy, etc.).

LED (light emitting diode) lighting has a much “more artificial” light spectrum profile than incandescent bulbs. Full spectrum sunlight is the only light that would have existed for hundred’s of thousands of years of human existence. Then came the discovery/ability to use fire as a light source. Although full spectrum sunlight contains the entire visible light spectrum + UV + infrared, each of these wavelengths come through at different angles of the sun. This is the NUANCE that matters:

• There is no UV present at sunrise/sunset

• UVA appears when the sun is >10 degrees above horizon. UVB at sun angle > 30 degrees

• At dusk/dawn and sunrise/sunset, blue light wavelengths are scattered while red light remains intact (longer wavelength). Why sunrises/sunsets are more red/orange than blue

• Blue light is NEVER present in natural sunlight without accompanying red/infrared wavelengths.

If you look at the light spectrum of LEDs, you will see a VERY high concentration of blue wavelengths, green to yellow wavelengths, and very little red/infrared wavelengths. Conversely, incandescent bulbs have NO blue light, little to no green/yellow and is majority red/infrared. This is why incandescent bulbs are so inefficient, because they dissipate so much heat in the form of infrared light (we can’t see infrared). Red and infrared (especially NIR), are very healing/low energy wavelengths. They are beneficial for mitochondrial health, especially the 650-800nm range. Sunlight is predominantly Red/infrared (40-50%) and these wavelengths are always present when the sun is up. 

When you use LEDs you are creating a VERY artificial light environment with a lot of isolated blue, green, yellow light wavelengths and almost no red/infrared. This is extremely different from sunlight. This is especially problematic when using LEDs at NIGHT, because as stated…blue light suppresses melatonin production. Incandescent bulbs are a far better option since they are nearly all red/infrared light. This has a much less pronounced effect on melatonin, and is more in line with natural sunlight. It is also far lower in temperature, which again is a safer bet at night time.

Before Edison invented the light bulb, humans only used fire for light at night (or early morning). Incandescent bulbs are inherently FAR MORE similar in light spectrum profile to fire and have a much less harmful effect on melatonin. The estimates for suppression of melatonin in the graph below are certainly estimates, i think incandescent bulbs would actually be a bit lower but it depends on quantity and brightness as well. 

TLDR: LEDs are shitcoins for light. They are far more artificial in terms of light spectrum. They are stealing your melatonin away from you. Avoid at all costs (especially at night), or wear blue light blocking glasses if you must. You can buy “red or warmer LEDs” but they aren’t really a true red light source because most just put phosphorous over a white LED to alter the warmth of the light. 

STOCK UP on incandescent bulbs (good for keeping your house warm in the winter) before they are $100/pop. The government does NOT CARE about your health. 

BlockBlueLight Glasses + Red Bulbs (Code TRISTAN10) 

Stay Sovereign,

Tristan

p.s. the movement is growing.

Originally published JUL 31, 2023

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na medium.com

07.10.2019 / Autor: LuxBTC

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Uvod

U ovom članku osvrnut ćemo se na razine informiranosti o bitcoinu s kojim se pojedinac susreće i znanja koja bi trebao usvojiti za dublje razumijevanje bitcoina. Mnogi su već čuli za bitcoin, ali površno razumijevanje može dovesti do potpuno krive percepcije pogotovo ako se za izvor informacija koriste neobjektivni i tehnički netočni medijski članci. Proces razumijevanja bitcoina iziskuje puno vremena i novih informacija koje na prvu nisu lako dostupne stoga ćemo pokušati dati uvid u tijek i izvore informiranja kao i pitanja koja bismo trebali postavljati.

Razina I - Prvi kontakt

Čuli smo od poznanika da je kupio bitcoine i zaradio na njima. Znamo iz medija da je bitcoin digitalna kriptovaluta i da ju najčešće koriste kriminalci za drogu i pranje novca. Oni koji su uspjeli zaraditi na bitcoinu, imali su sreće jer su ga uspjeli prodati na vrijeme i dobiti novac za njega jer je bitcoin vjerojatno neki oblik piramidalne sheme.

Informacije koje posjedujemo:

• bitcoin je digitalna kriptovaluta
• bitcoin koriste kriminalci
• na bitcoinu se može zaraditi ako imamo sreće i uspijemo ga prodati za novac
• bitcoin je neki oblik piramidalne sheme

Pitanja koja bismo trebali postaviti:

• što je to digitalna kriptovaluta?
• zašto bitcoin koriste kriminalci?
• kako izgleda kupnja i prodaja bitcoina?
• što je to piramidalna shema?

Mnogi će ostati na ovoj razini i prihvatiti negativno mišljenje o bitcoinu. Svaka nova informacija iz medija, koja je najčešće vezana za nagli pad cijene ili napad hakera na kripto-mjenjačnice, bit će dodatna potvrda da se bitcoina treba kloniti. U mnoštvu ljudi koji će se prikloniti tom mišljenju naći će se pojedinci koji će htjeti saznati nešto više o njemu, najčešće privučeni onim dijelom gdje se na bitcoinu može zaraditi.

Razina II - Špekulacija i brza zarada

Čuli smo da cijena bitcoina naglo raste i pada te je vrlo nepredvidljiv. Ljudi se vole kockati i špekulirati s cijenom pa zašto ne isprobati sreću na njemu prije nego što cijena padne na nulu.

Još uvijek ne znamo kako bitcoin funkcionira, ali saznali smo da možemo uplatiti novac na neke od kripto-mjenjačnica te na njima kupiti bitcoin i njime špekulirati. Kupili smo dio od jednog bitcoina (npr. 0.01 BTC) u vrijednosti od 200 eura. Cijena mu je kroz idućih nekoliko tjedana porasla te smo u dobitku 20%. Očekivali smo nastavak rasta pa ga nismo prodavali, ali cijena je oštro pala te smo sada u minusu 30%. U strahu da nam se gubitak ne poveća, prodajemo 0.01 BTC natrag u eure, naravno uz gubitak jer bitcoin trenutno vrijedi manje nego kad smo ga kupili. Kockali smo se i izgubili dok je naš prijatelj bio manje pohlepan te je iskoristio dobitak od 10%.

Informacije koje posjedujemo:

• na kripto-mjenjačnicama (burzama) možemo kupiti bitcoine
• ne moramo nužno kupiti cijeli bitcoin s obzirom da se može dijeliti na decimale
• cijena bitcoina je vrlo volatilna i nepredvidljiva
• bitcoinom se špekulira pa se ne razlikuje od kockanja

Pitanja koja bismo trebali postaviti:

• zašto bitcoin ima cijenu?
• zašto je cijena bitcoina volatilna i nepredvidljiva?
• koliko su kripto-mjenjačnice sigurne?

Nekima se posrećilo s bitcoinom, nekima nije. Sigurno je da takva internetska valuta ne može imati vrijednost jer ne postoji nikakav razlog zašto joj cijena toliko skače i pada. Najbolje se onda kloniti takvog oblika zarade.

Razina III - Odakle Bitcoinu vrijednost

Mnogi koji su čuli za bitcoin reći će — bitcoin nema vrijednost jer ne služi ničemu. Također, bitcoin je samo digitalni zapis koji nije opipljiv te je jedini razlog zašto još uvijek ima cijenu taj što je cijena potpuno umjetna te se još nije našla zadnja naivčina koja će ga otkupiti i neće više moći prodati jer ga više nitko neće htjeti kupiti. Tada će balon puknuti.

Informacije koje posjedujemo:

• bitcoin je digitalni zapis koji ne služi ničemu
• cijena bitcoina je umjetna jer bitcoin nema vrijednost
• sustav će se urušiti kad više nitko ne bude htio otkupiti bitcoine

Pitanja koja bismo trebali postaviti:

• kako izgleda i funkcionira struktura bitcoina kao digitalni zapis?
• kako se kretala cijena bitcoina od početka njegovog izuma i što nam to govori?

Razina IV - Više strana Bitcoina

Do sada smo se dotakli osnovnog ekonomskog dijela bitcoina iz kojeg smo saznali da bitcoin posjeduje tržišnu cijenu te da se njime može trgovati kao i s ostalim tržišnim instrumentima poput dionica, zlata, valuta itd. Bitcoin također ima tržišnu kapitalizaciju jer je poznat ukupan broj bitcoina u cirkulaciji kao i cijena jednog bitcoina.

No, razumijevanje bitcoina i odgovore na naša pitanja nećemo dobiti kroz njegovu osnovnu ekonomiju koja nam trenutno jedino govori da tržište bitcoina postoji jer postoji njegova ponuda i potražnja. Da bismo naučili što je bitcoin i kako funkcionira, moramo zaviriti u njegovu povijest, tehničku stranu i detalje ekonomije bitcoina koje otvaraju stotine pitanja koja za sobom povlače mrežu mnogih drugih. U tom procesu traženja odgovora nesvjesno ćemo se dotaknuti povijesti samog novca te njegove evolucije kroz tisućljeća, razvoja ljudskog društva i stvaranja monetarne politike, izuma interneta i njegovog utjecaja na društvo te slobodu pojedinca, izuma kriptografije i njezine važnosti te pojavu cypherpunk pokreta, austrijske škole ekonomije, svjetske financijske krize, blockchain tehnologije i njene primjene te još mnogih drugih tema.

Nastanak Bitcoina

Bitcoin je vrlo mlada tehnologija koja nije nastala preko noći nego je produkt rada koji se proteže nekoliko desetljeća u prošlost. Tehnički članak Bitcoina [1] objavio je njegov tvorac 31.10.2008. pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto, uoči svjetske financijske krize, a prvu verziju Bitcoin softvera objavljuje 3.1.2009. u kojem ostavlja poruku s naslovnice novina The Times, toga dana.

U nastavku slijedi hrvatski prijevod uvodnog poglavlja knjige “Mastering Bitcoin” autora Andreasa Antonopoulosa. [2]

Što je Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je skup koncepata i tehnologija koji čine osnovu ekosustava digitalnog novca. Jedinice valute nazvane bitcoin koriste se za pohranu i prijenos vrijednosti među sudionicima bitcoin mreže. Korisnici bitcoina međusobno komuniciraju putem bitcoin protokola prvenstveno putem interneta, mada se mogu koristiti i druge prijenosne mreže. Bitcoin protokol, dostupan kao softver otvorenog koda, može se izvršavati na širokom rasponu računalnih uređaja, uključujući prijenosna računala i pametne telefone, čineći tehnologiju lako dostupnom.

Korisnici mogu prenositi bitcoin preko mreže i njime ostvariti gotovo sve što se može ostvariti s uobičajenim valutama, uključujući kupovinu i prodaju robe, slanje novca ljudima ili organizacijama itd. Bitcoin se može kupiti, prodati i zamijeniti za druge valute na specijaliziranim burzama. Bitcoin je u određenom smislu savršen oblik novca za internet jer je brz, siguran i bez granica.

Za razliku od tradicionalnih valuta, bitcoini su potpuno virtualni. Ne postoje u fizičkom obliku, pa čak ni digitalnom. Kovanice su obuhvaćene u transakcijama koje prenose vrijednost s pošiljatelja na primatelja. Korisnici bitcoina posjeduju ključeve koji im omogućuju da dokažu vlasništvo nad bitcoinom u bitcoin mreži. Pomoću ovih ključeva mogu potpisati transakcije kako bi otključali vrijednost i potrošili je prijenosom na novog vlasnika. Ključevi se često pohranjuju u digitalnom novčaniku na računalu ili pametnom telefonu korisnika. Posjedovanje ključa koji može potpisati transakciju jedini je preduvjet trošenja bitcoina, čime je kontrola u potpunosti u rukama pojedinog korisnika.

Bitcoin je distribuirani, peer-to-peer (svaki sa svakim) sustav. Kao takav ne postoji središnji poslužitelj ili točka kontrole. Bitcoin se stvara kroz proces nazvan “rudarenje”, koji uključuje nadmetanje u pronalaženju rješenja za matematički problem tijekom obrade bitcoin transakcija. Svaki sudionik u bitcoin mreži (tj. svatko tko koristi uređaj koji pokreće čitav niz bitcoin protokola) može raditi kao rudar, koristeći procesorsku snagu svog računala za provjeru i zapisivanje transakcija. Svakih 10 minuta, u prosjeku, bitcoin rudar može validirati transakcije ostvarene posljednjih 10 minuta te je nagrađen s potpuno novim bitcoinom. U osnovi, rudarenje bitcoina decentralizira izdavanje novih kovanica i funkcije odobrenja središnje banke te zamjenjuje potrebu za bilo kojom središnjom bankom.

Bitcoin protokol uključuje ugrađene algoritme koji reguliraju funkciju rudarenja na mreži. Težina zadatka obrade koju rudari moraju obaviti prilagođava se dinamički tako da u prosjeku svakih 10 minuta netko uspije izvršiti zadatak bez obzira na to koliko se rudara (i koliko procesne snage) natječe u bilo kojem trenutku. Protokol također prepolavlja brzinu stvaranja novih bitcoina svake 4 godine i ograničava ukupni broj bitcoina koji će se stvoriti na fiksni ukupni iznos od 21 milijun kovanica. Rezultat je da broj bitcoina u optjecaju pomno slijedi lako predvidljivu krivulju koja se približava 21 milijunu do 2140. godine. Zbog smanjujuće stope izdavanja bitcoina, dugoročno, bitcoin valuta je deflacijska. Bitcoin se ne može razvodniti printanjem novog novca iznad očekivane stope izdavanja.

Bitcoin je ujedno i naziv protokola, peer-to-peer mreže te distribuirane računalne inovacije. Bitcoin valuta je samo prva primjena ovog izuma. Bitcoin predstavlja vrhunac dugogodišnjeg istraživanja kriptografije i distribuiranih sustava te uključuje četiri ključne inovacije okupljene u jedinstvenu i moćnu kombinaciju. Bitcoin se sastoji od:

• Decentralizirana peer-to-peer mreža (bitcoin protokol)
• Knjiga javnih transakcija (blockchain)
• Skup pravila za neovisnu provjeru transakcija i izdavanje valute (pravila konsenzusa)
• Mehanizam za postizanje globalnog decentraliziranog konsenzusa na važećem blockchainu (Proof-of-Work algoritam )

(…)

Digitalne valute prije bitcoina

Pojava digitalnog novca usko je povezan s razvojem kriptografije. To nije iznenađujuće kada se razmotre temeljni izazovi korištenja bitova koji predstavljaju vrijednost koja se može zamijeniti za robu i usluge. Tri su osnovna pitanja za svakoga tko prihvaća digitalni novac:

• Mogu li vjerovati da je novac autentičan i da nije krivotvoren?
• Mogu li vjerovati da se digitalni novac može potrošiti samo jednom (poznat kao problem “dvostruke potrošnje”)?
• Mogu li biti siguran da nitko drugi ne može tvrditi da taj novac pripada njima, a ne meni?

Izdavači papirnog novca stalno se suočavaju s problemom krivotvorenja koristeći sve sofisticiranije papire i tehnologiju printanja. Fizički novac lako rješava problem dvostruke potrošnje jer ista novčanica ne može biti na dva mjesta odjednom. Naravno, konvencionalni novac također se često pohranjuje i prenosi digitalno. U tim se slučajevima problemi s krivotvorenjem i dvostrukom potrošnjom rješavaju odobravanjem svih elektroničkih transakcija putem središnjih vlasti koje imaju globalni uvid u valutu u optjecaju. Za digitalni novac, koji ne može iskoristiti takvu vrstu provjere, kriptografija pruža osnovu za povjerenje u legitimnost zahtjeva korisnika. Konkretno, kriptografski digitalni potpisi omogućuju korisniku da potpiše digitalnu imovinu ili transakciju čime dokazuje vlasništvo nad tom imovinom. Uz odgovarajuću arhitekturu, digitalni potpisi također se mogu koristiti za rješavanje problema s dvostrukom potrošnjom.

Kada je kriptografija počela postajati široko dostupna i shvaćena u kasnim 80-ima, mnogi su istraživači pokušali koristiti kriptografiju za konstrukciju digitalnih valuta. Ti rani projekti digitalne valute izdavali su digitalni novac, obično s pokrićem u nacionalnoj valuti ili plemenitim metalom poput zlata.

Iako su te ranije digitalne valute funkcionirale, bile su centralizirane i kao rezultat toga, vlade država i hakeri su ih lako napadali. Rane digitalne valute koristile su središnji zavod zbirnog vođenja računa za podmirivanje svih transakcija u pravilnim intervalima, baš kao i tradicionalni bankarski sustav. Nažalost, u većini slučajeva ove novonastale digitalne valute bile su na meti zabrinutih vlada i na kraju su kroz sudske sporove uklonjene. Neke su propale u spektakularnim padovima kada je matična tvrtka naglo likvidirana. Za otpornost protiv intervencija protivnika, bilo da su legitimne vlade ili kriminalni elementi u pitanju, bila je potrebna decentralizirana digitalna valuta kako bi se izbjegla jedna točka napada. Bitcoin je takav sustav, koji je dizajniran decentralizirano, bez ikakvih središnjih autoriteta ili točke kontrole koji mogu biti napadnuti ili oštećeni.

Povijest Bitcoina

Bitcoin je izumljen 2008. godine objavljivanjem rada pod naslovom „Bitcoin: Peer-to-peer elektronički gotovinski sustav“,[1] napisanog pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto. Nakamoto je kombinirao nekoliko prethodnih izuma kao što su b-money i HashCash kako bi stvorio potpuno decentralizirani elektronički gotovinski sustav koji se ne oslanja na središnje tijelo za izdavanje valute i potvrđivanje transakcija. Ključna inovacija bila je upotreba distribuiranog sustava izračunavanja (nazvanog algoritam Proof-of-Work) za provođenje globalnih „izbora“ svakih 10 minuta, omogućujući decentraliziranoj mreži da postigne konsenzus o stanju transakcija. Time se elegantno rješava problem dvostruke potrošnje u kojem se jedna valuta može potrošiti dva puta. Prije toga, problem s dvostrukom potrošnjom predstavljao je slabost digitalne valute, a riješen je provjerom svih transakcija putem središnjeg zavoda zbirnog vođenja računa.

Bitcoin mreža pokrenuta je 2009. godine, koju je objavio Nakamoto i koju su tada revidirali mnogi drugi programeri. Procesna snaga algoritma Proof-of-Work (rudarenje), koji pruža sigurnost i otpornost bitcoina, povećala se eksponencijalno te sada nadmašuje kombiniranu procesnu snagu najboljih svjetskih super-računala. Ukupna tržišna vrijednost bitcoina već je premašila 135 milijardi američkih dolara. Najveća transakcija koju je mreža do sada procesuirala bila je 400 milijuna američkih dolara, koja je poslana odmah i obrađena za naknadu od 1 dolara.

Satoshi Nakamoto povukao se iz javnosti u travnju 2011., prepuštajući odgovornost za razvijanje koda i mreže skupini dobrovoljaca. Još uvijek nije poznat identitet osobe ili ljudi koji stoje iza bitcoina. No, ni Satoshi Nakamoto, niti bilo tko drugi ne vrši individualnu kontrolu nad bitcoin sustavom, koji djeluje na temelju potpuno transparentnih matematičkih principa, otvorenog koda i konsenzusa među sudionicima. Sam izum je revolucionaran i već je pokrenuo novu znanost na područjima distribuiranog računalstva, ekonomije i ekonometrije.

[…]

Knjiga “Mastering Bitcoin” pruža detaljan opis tehničkih pojmova, strukture i rada bitcoina te bitcoin mreže. Daje odgovore na mnoga tehnička pitanja i prednosti koje bitcoin pruža. Njen autor, Andreas Antonopoulos najpoznatiji je edukator u Bitcoin zajednici koji dugi niz godina održava brojne govore i edukacijske seminare o važnosti bitcoina diljem svijeta. Sudjelovao je u nekoliko parlamentarnih saslušanja na kojima je educirao političke državne vrhove o novonastaloj bitcoin tehnologiji. Njegovi brojni govori mogu se naći na Youtube kanalu aantonop [3], a neki od njih sakupljeni su u knjige “The Internet of Money (Vol. I, Vol. II)” [4]

Stvaranje šire slike

Nakon usvajanja novih informacija i tehničkih pojmova počet ćemo dobivati širu sliku o bitcoinu. Možda nam i dalje neće biti jasni pojmovi poput rudarenja, 51% napada, Problem bizantinskih generala, kreiranje privatnih i javnih ključeva itd., ali postoje mnogi Youtube videi koji to na slikovit način vrlo dobro objašnjavaju.

Potkovani tehničkim znanjem o bitcoinu, možemo krenuti postavljati pitanja što novcu daje vrijednost, zašto zlato ima vrijednost, koja je sličnost između zlata i bitcoina, zašto su standardne valute inflacijske, kako bitcoin kao deflacijska valuta funkcionira, kako funkcionira monetarna ekonomija i koje su mane današnjeg monetarnog sustava.

Odgovore na ova bitna ekonomska pitanja možemo pronaći u knjizi “The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking” autora Saifedeana Ammousa [5] koja će uskoro biti prevedena na hrvatski jezik u nakladništvu Mate d.o.o.

Saifedean Ammous u svojoj knjizi govori o rijetkosti u pogledu omjera Stock-to-Flow (zaliha i proizvodnje). Objašnjava zašto se zlato i bitcoin razlikuju od ostalih metala poput bakra, cinka, nikl. Zbog toga što imaju visok Stock-to-Flow omjer (SF).

„Za bilo koju potrošnu robu (…) udvostručenje proizvodnje značajno će umanjiti sve postojeće zalihe, što će srušiti cijenu i naštetiti vlasnicima. Skok cijene zlata, koji bi uzrokovao udvostručenje godišnje proizvodnje, bio bi neznatan, povećavajući zalihe za 3% umjesto 1,5%.”

„Upravo je ta konstantno niska stopa stvaranja zaliha zlata temeljni razlog zašto je zlato zadržalo svoju novčanu ulogu kroz ljudsku povijest.”

„Visoka vrijednost stock-to-flow omjera zlata čini ga robom čija tržišna ponuda ima najnižu elastičnost cijene.”

„Postojeće zalihe bitcoina u 2017. bile su oko 25 puta veće od novih bitcoina proizvedenih u toj godini. Taj omjer je upola manji u usporedbi s omjerom za zlato, ali oko 2022. stock-to-flow bitcoina nadmašit će zlato”- Saifedean Ammous

Stock-to-Flow pristup kao pokretač ekonomske analize Bitcoina

Nakon objavljivanja knjige “The Bitcoin Standard”, Stock-To-Flow pristup koji ima porijeklo u analizi tržišta robe, počeo se koristiti kao alat za analizu Bitcoina. Pristup je u skladu s osnovnom idejom koja stoji iza Bitcoina koji je izričito zamišljen kao novo monetarno dobro i usmjeren prema formi novca plemenitih metala. Prema tome novi se bitcoini ne mogu rudariti proizvoljno. Bitcoin je potpuno digitalan stoga se često naziva digitalnim zlatom.

Postoji snažna povezanost između tržišne vrijednosti bitcoina i Stock-To-Flow omjera. Model koji pokazuje ovaj statistički značajan odnos prvi je napravio autor PlanB i iznio rezultate u članku pod nazivom Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity.[6]

Iako statistički modeli poput ovoga mogu ukazivati na snažnu zavisnu korelaciju, ne mogu uzeti u obzir utjecaje mnogih drugih, najčešće nepredvidljivih faktora, stoga uvijek postoji šansa da u potpunosti krivo prognoziraju budućnost.

Rana faza

Bitcoin je vrlo mlada tehnologija nastala tijekom svjetske financijske krize. U prvih 10 godina postojanja prošao je kroz mnoge faze. Od uporabe na crnom tržištu, trgovanja na nereguliranim burzama i hakerskih napada na njih do reguliranog trgovanja bitcoin terminskim ugovorima (futures contract), teme rasprava i korištenja u financijskim analizama poznatih svjetskih banaka te ostalih financijskih institucija itd.

Zbog povijesnog dugoročnog rasta cijene bitcoina te njegovog velikog potencijala kao nove tehnologije, mnogi se odlučuju ne koristiti ga još kao platno sredstvo nego ga nakon kupnje čuvaju. Do sada se pokazao kao dugoročno dobar instrument očuvanja vrijednosti osobne imovine, poput zlata, no idući pravi test za bitcoin bit će pojavom nove financijske krize.

Razvoj bitcoina podsjeća na razvoj interneta ranih 90-ih godina. Mnogi nisu razumjeli što internet predstavlja, korporacije čije je poslove ugrožavao, predviđale su mu propast te su smatrale da kućanstva neće imati potrebu za njime, stvorena je medijska slika da se internetom služe samo kriminalci, pedofili, ljubitelji pornografije. Danas se struktura interneta uvelike razlikuje u odnosu na njegovu ranu fazu te je neizostavan dio naših života koji je pokrenuo digitalnu revoluciju i unaprijedio životni standard ljudi diljem svijeta. Bitcoin se danas naziva i internetom novca.

Lightning network

Drugi sloj protokola na bitcoin mreži pod nazivom Lightning network, predstavljen je 2016. godine kao potencijalno rješenje za problem skalabilnost bitcoin mreže. Skalabilnost trenutno ne predstavlja problem, ali ako uporaba bitcoina postane široko rasprostranjena tj. ako se bitcoin počne koristiti u budućnosti kao svakodnevno platno sredstvo, iznimno je važno da mreža može podržati i obraditi veliki broj transakcija po sekundi. Lightning network je trenutno u beta fazi razvoja te preostaje vidjeti hoće li zaživjeti ili će se možda pojaviti neko drugo naprednije rješenje.

Zaključak

U ovom članku osvrnuli smo se na razine informiranosti o bitcoinu i znanja koja bismo trebali usvojiti za dublje razumijevanje bitcoina. Naveli smo izvore za tehničku i ekonomsku stranu bitcoina pomoću kojih možemo doći do odgovora na mnoga pitanja i dobiti širu sliku o bitcoinu.

Nitko ne zna što budućnost donosi i u kojem smjeru će se bitcoin razvijati — hoće li nadmašiti zlato u ulozi očuvanja vrijednosti osobne imovine, hoće li postati uvaženo globalno platno sredstvo te smanjiti monetarnu moć centralnih banaka ili nešto sasvim treće. Jedino što je sigurno da se svijest o trenutnom velikom nesrazmjeru bogatstva i moći širi, kao i zlouporaba moći za vlastite političke interese pojedinaca, na štetu naroda kojem se oduzimaju privatnost, sloboda, mogućnost izbora te da su u društvu potrebne mnoge promjene.

“The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve.” — Satoshi Nakamoto

Reference

[1] https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf — Satoshi Nakamoto, 2008

[2] Mastering Bitcoin: Programming the Open Blockchain — Andreas A. Antonopoulos, 2016

[3] https://www.youtube.com/user/aantonop

[4] The Internet of Money (Vol. I, Vol. II) — Andreas A. Antonopoulos, 2016-2017

[5] The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking — Saifedean Ammous, 2018

[6] Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity — PlanB @100trillionUSD, 2019

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na luxb.substack.com.

27.10.2022 / Autor: Lux Bitcoin

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Najosnovniji način prijenosa vrijednosti je trampa.

Trampa, međutim, ima tri glavna ograničenja: zahtijeva podudarnost razmjera, prostora i vremena.

Podudarnost razmjera: ono što želite možda nema istu vrijednost kao ono što želite dati.

Podudarnost prostora: ono što želite može biti na različitim mjestima od onoga što želite dati.

Podudarnost vremena: ono što želite možda nema istu kvarljivost kao ono što želite dati.

Kako bi se prevladala ova ograničenja, pokušalo se koristiti intermedijarni dobra, s funkcijom novca.

Ta su dobra morala biti lako djeljiva, lako prenosiva, lako prepoznatljiva i nekvarljiva. Stoga su morala biti potrošna u razmjeru, prostoru i vremenu.

Potrošnost kroz vrijeme je najzanimljivije svojstvo.

Neko dobro se može potrošiti kroz vrijeme ako je fizički nepromjenjivo. Ali nepromjenjivost materijala nije dovoljna za očuvanje vrijednosti, potrebno je i održavati stabilnom količinu dostupnu na tržištu.

Da bismo razumjeli ovaj koncept, uzmimo primjer RAI kamenja, koje se koristilo kao valuta na otoku Yap.

Izvorno je nabaviti ovo kamenje bilo vrlo teško, pa nije bilo načina da se ih se previše inflacionira, ali iskrcavanjem kapetana O'Keefea 1871. situacija se promijenila. Zahvaljujući tehnološki naprednijim alatima kapetan je bio u stanju nabaviti nebrojeno kamenje, stvorivši inflaciju i uzrokovao da RAI izgubi status valute.

Inflacija nekog dobra uzrokuje mu gubitak vrijednosti.

Gubitak vrijednosti dobra otežava njegovu trošnost.

Povijest novca

Nakon pokušaja sa stokom, kamenjem, školjkama, žitaricama i solju, odlučeno je da se metalima pripiše funkciju novca, budući da ih se moglo modelirati u jednakim jedinicama.

Među metalima koji su se koristili kao novac, zlato je postalo dominantno zbog svoje nepromjenjivosti i iznimne teškoće u pronalaženju. Ove dvije karakteristike omogućile su mu da zadrži svoju vrijednost tijekom godina.

Novac koji ne zadržava svoju vrijednost tijekom vremena uzrokuje ogromnu štetu zajednicama. Uzmimo primjer Rimskog carstva.

Uvođenje Aureusa od strane Julija Cezara omogućilo je ogromno i uspješno tržište koje se širilo diljem Europe i Mediterana.

Međutim, Neron je, u nedostatku sredstava, počeo kovati novac sa sve manjom količinom plemenitog metala. S ovim trikom mogao je računati na mnogo više sredstava da ugodi narodu, primjerice davanjem kruha i igara.

Što su financije bile lošije, to se više metala oduzimalo. Od 8 grama Cezarovog Aureusa, sa godinama se prešlo na novčić sa samo 4,5 grama zlata. To je omogućilo carevima da troše iznad svojih mogućnosti, stvarajući osnove za ekonomsku propast carstva.

Kraj Carigrada također se poklopio sa devalvacijom novca. Sa novčanim padom dogodio se i kulturni, financijski i vojni pad.

Pad rimskog carstva i stalna devalvacija novca stvorili su ozbiljne prepreke trgovini i naveli stanovništvo da se organizira u male samodostatne zajednice nepovjerljive jedna prema drugoj.

Preporod nakon razdoblja ratova i gladi koincidirao je s usvajanjem novog novčanog standarda. Sve je počelo u Firenci 1252. godine kada je grad uveo florin, zlatnik s fiksnom težinom. Zahvaljujući svojoj stabilnosti, florin je postupno zamijenio sve bakrene i brončane kovanice koje se lako inflatiralo i predstavljao je uzor cijeloj Europi. Venecija je bila prva koja je slijedila primjer Firence kujući Dukat, ali još 150 drugih gradova prilagodilo se novom standardu.

S procvatom trgovine Europa, a posebno Italija, doživjeli su veliki gospodarski i kulturni procvat.

Usvajanje jakog novca kroz povijest uvijek je bilo nagrađeno rastom i prosperitetom. Drugi primjer je Britansko Carstvo, najveće u ljudskoj povijesti, koje je usvojilo moderni zlatni standard 1717. Iako se zlatom nije više trgovalo u malim transakcijama, ono je i dalje ostalo kao referenca za novčanice.

Zemlje poput Indije i Kine skupo su platile izbor kasnije prilagodbe zlatnom standardu.

Dok je veći dio planeta usvajao zlatno standard, stigla je La Belle Epoque, jedno od najprosperitetnijih razdoblja u ljudskoj povijesti. Uz jaki novac zajednički svim zemljama poticana je trgovina, a stabilnost novca tijekom vremena omogućila je akumulaciju kapitala potrebnog za ulaganja.

Godine 1914., s Prvim svjetskim ratom, zlatni standard je suspendiran.

Ako su sa jakim novcem ratovi završavali kad je državi nedostajalo novca, sa slabim novcem to više nije bio problem. Skriveni porez, inflacija, omogućio je nastavak ratova sve dok cjelokupno nacionalno bogatstvo nije erodirano.

Nakon rata, Sjedinjene Države doživjele su najgoru gospodarsku krizu ikada zabilježenu: Veliku depresiju. Uvriježeneo je mišljenje da se iz depresije izašlo zahvaljujući povećanju javne potrošnje (New Deal). Zapravo, kreditna ekspanzija 1920-ih je to uzrokovala, a New Deal je samo pogoršao situaciju.

U 1930-ima države su nastavile napuhavati valute.

Totalitarni režimi imali su svaki interes financirati se bez ubiranja poreza.

Keynes, ekonomist koji je rat smatrao učinkovitim načinom borbe protiv nezaposlenosti, teoretizirao je izlazak iz zlatnog standarda.

Drugi svjetski rat doista nije kasnio.

Godine 1971. Sjedinjene države definitivno napuštaju zlatni standard, započevši neobuzdanu monetarnu ekspanziju koja traje sve do danas. Za predodžbu: ako je 1971. unca zlata vrijedila 35 dolara, danas vrijedi 1500.

Korištenjem lako inflatornih valuta riskira se hiperinflaciju, odnosno drastičan gubitak kupovne moći u kratkom vremenu.

Primjeri hiperinflacije su Njemačka 1920-ih s dnevnom inflacijom od 20%, te Mađarska 1940-ih s dnevnom inflacijom od 207%.

U Mađarskoj su se cijene udvostručavale svakih 15 sati, što je učinilo apsolutno nemogućim uštedu i prijenos vrijednosti tijekom vremena.

Očigledno sve to ne bi bilo moguće s novcem koji teško podliježe inflaciji.

Bitcoin

Prije Bitcoina bile su moguće samo dvije vrste plaćanja:

• Gotovinska plaćanja bez posrednika

• Elektronička plaćanja putem posrednika

Gotovinska plaćanja su trenutna, ali zahtijevaju fizičku prisutnost obiju strana. Elektronička plaćanja mogu se izvršiti i na daljinu, ali za to je potreban posrednik koji ovjerava plaćanje i naplatu.

Bitcoin je prvi oblik novca koji omogućuje elektronička plaćanja bez uključivanja posrednika kao što su države ili banke, a to ga također čini prvom valutom koja nije podložna inflaciji, koja se ne može zaplijeniti, koja se ne može cenzurirati, koja može prenijeti vrijednost bolje od bilo čega kroz redove veličine, prostor i vrijeme.

Ako zlato ima inflaciju koja fluktuira oko 2%, Bitcoin ima inflaciju koja se prepolovi svake 4 godine sve dok ne dosegne nulu i ostane tamo zauvijek. Bitcoin je, dakle, prva valuta u povijesti koja će imati nultu inflaciju.

Prednosti Bitcoina u odnosu na zlato su ogromne: lakše ga je prenositi, omogućuje veću transparentnost i jamči manju inflaciju.

S manje inflacije:

1 - čuva se vrijednost tijekom vremena;

2 - olakšava se trgovanje;

3 - olakšava se ekonomska računica;

4 - jamči se sloboda pojedincima neovisno od središta moći.

Vremenska preferencija

Racionalnim pojedincima je uvijek bolje odmah pristupiti nekom dobru nego to odgađati tijekom vremena. Upravo zato se čekanje u gospodarstvu uvijek mora nagraditi.

Vrednovanje budućnosti u odnosu na sadašnjost omogućuje proizvodnju kapitalnih dobara, odnosno dobara stvorenih ne za potrošnju, već korisnih za proizvodnju budućih dobara.

Primjer: s čamcem se ulovi više ribe nego golim rukama, ali da bi se izgradio čamac potrebno je žrtvovati vrijeme i energiju bez istančane nagrade.

Zamislimo dvije individue na pustom otoku.

Laura budućnost shvaća vrlo ozbiljno;

Mario preferira trenutačno zadovoljstvo.

Mario provodi 8 sati dnevno kako bi golim rukama ulovio potrebnu ribu. Laura čini isto, ali nakon pecanja još dva sata posvećuje izradi štapa za pecanje. Nakon tjedan dana Laura je dovršila štap za pecanje i time može pokriti svoje dnevne potrebe u pola vremena koliko je potrebno Mariu. Sljedećih mjeseci, radeći isto sati kao i Mario, Laura ima vremena izgraditi čamac, mrežu i druge alate koji joj omogućuju da u jednom satu ulovi puno više ribe nego što Mario ulovi kroz cijele dane.

Na Stanfordu, 1960. napravljen je eksperiment.

Djeci je ponuđen slatkiš uz obećanje da će dobiti još jedan ako izdrže 15 minuta da ga ne pojedu. Djeca su stoga morala birati hoće li odmah dobiti jedan slatkiš ili dva nakon 15 minuta. Godinama kasnije, pronađena je korelacija između onih koji su uspjeli odgoditi zadovoljstvo i onih koji su postigli veće akademske i sportske rezultate.

Odgađanje zadovoljstva omogućuje štednju.

Štednja omogućuje investicije.

Investicije povećavaju produktivnost.

Štednja se općenito potiče u sigurnim društvima, gdje su porezi niski i gdje je vlasništvo zaštićeno. Temeljni čimbenik u jamčenju štednje je imati jaku valutu, koju se ne može lako napuhati. Ako valuta stalno gubi vrijednost, više se potiče da je se potroši nego da je se sačuva.

Prijelaz s valute koja gubi vrijednost na valutu koja svoju vrijednost zadržava stoga je ključno na duge staze, jer to može činiti razliku izmađu rasta ili pada jednog društva.

Valuta koja s vremenom gubi vrijednost obeshrabruje štednju u korist potrošnje, rizičnih ulaganja i zaduživanja.

Jaka valuta, osim što pogoduje štednji, poboljšava i ekonomsku računicu, odnosno omogućuje mjerenje iskusnosti resursa i donošenje racionalnih odluka o proizvodnji i potrošnji.

Npr: ako je roba za kojom postoji velika potražnja oskudna, povećanje cijene potiče njezinu proizvodnju i obeshrabruje potrošnju.

Obrnuto, ako dobra za kojim nema potražnje ima puno, pad cijene obeshrabruje njegovu proizvodnju i potiče potrošnju.

Ista dinamika vrijedi i za novac čija se cijena naziva “kamatna stopa”.

Trošak zajmova trebao bi se smanjiti ako je štednje puno, a porasti ako je štednje malo, kako bi uvijek postojala ispravna ravnoteža i ispravni poticaji.

Ponovimo koncept: ako malo tko posuđuje, kamate bi trebale pasti, tako da olakšava posuđivanje novca. Ako pak mnogi traže posudbe, kamate bi trebale porasti, kako bi se destimuliralo traženje kredita i poticala štednja.

Sa slabom valutom događa se umjesto toga da kamatne stope ne odražavaju ravnotežu između štednje i ulaganja. Centralne banke stvaraju kamatne stope koje su niže od tržišnih, potičući potrošnju i ulaganja čak i kad je štednja oskudna.

Uz investicije koje zahtijevaju više sredstava nego što su stvarno dostupna, sistemske krize su neizbježne.

Djeluje ovako:

• Stvori se nova valuta

• Povećaju se investicije

• Smanjuje se štednja

• Pokreće se više ulaganja nego što ima raspoloživih sredstava

• Investicije propadaju

Valute koje gube vrijednost ne dopuštaju cijenama da signaliziraju stvarnu oskudicu resursa, dakle da koordiniraju proizvodnju i potrošnju.

Loše investicije, nastale zbog niskih kamata i gubitka vrijednosti valute, glavni su uzrok gospodarskih kriza.

Cilj centralnih banaka je “jamčiti stabilnost cijena” povećanjem i smanjenjem količine novca. Ali osigurati stabilnost cijena promjenom mjerne jedinice je apsurdno. Mjerna jedinica je fiksna po definiciji, ne može se mijenjati ovisno o mjerenom objektu.

Stalno mijenjanje mjernih jedinica samo stvara zbunjenost, otežava ekonomsku kalkulaciju i onemogućuje pravilnu raspodjelu resursa.

Primjer: tvrtka kojoj su trebale godine da stekne konkurentsku prednost može gledati kako ona nestaje u nekoliko minuta ako je valuta zemlje dobavljača precijenjena, a valuta kupca devalvira. Tvrtka će stoga biti prisiljena zatvoriti se unatoč činjenici da realno proizvodi veliku vrijednost.

Postojanje stotina različitih valuta čija se vrijednost stalno mijenja stvara ekonomsku štetu, ne samo za resurse koji se koriste u razmjeni, već prije svega zbog nemogućnosti ekonomske kalkulacije.

Vjerujući da favoriziraju izvoz, države teže devalviranju valuta, ne shvaćajući da zapravo favoriziraju strane kupce. Novčana devalvacija nije ništa drugo nego javno financiranje izvoza, odnosno prodaja vlastite robe ispod cijene.

Ovi bi problemi nestali kad bi se koristila jedna globalna referentna valuta sa sigurnom vrijednošću.

Najveća iluzija suvremenog svijeta je ideja da vlada mora upravljati valutom.

Po Keynesu, vlada je morala poticati potrošnju u sadašnjosti i obeshrabrivati štednju za budućnost. Onima koji su mu isticali da su te politike dugoročno pogubne odgovarao bi da smo “dugoročno svi mrtvi”. Ali dugoročno, prije ili kasnije, stigne.

Jaku valutu po Keynesu je trebalo izbjegavati jer je obeshrabrivala potrošnju. Ono što nije razumio je da samo štednja dugoročno omogućuje održiva ulaganja.

Slabe valute i ratovi

Postoje tri faktora koji povezuju slabe valute i ratove:

1. Tečajne razlike i konkurentske devalvacije su prepreke slobodnoj trgovini koje se često rješavaju vojnim intervencijama. Jaka transnacionalna valuta olakšava trgovinu, ako prolazi roba nema potrebe za prolaskom vojske.

2. Ako su sa jakom valutom resursi za rat ograničeni na poreze, s inflatornom valutom država može izvlačiti bogatstvo bez ograničenja. Mogućnost stvaranja novca stoga omogućuje državama nastavak ratova i nakon što im ponestane sredstava u proračunu, sve do potpune erozije nacionalnog bogatstva.

3. Jaka valuta potiče suradnju i obeshrabruje sukobe koji bi mogli biti korisni samo kratkoročno. Što je više suradnje, što je veće tržište, to je više mogućnosti za specijalizaciju, a što je veća podjela rada, to je veća produktivnost.

Imati neinflatornu valutu također je jamstvo slobode protiv tirana.

Ako tiranin ne može stvarati novac, prisiljen ga je tražiti u obliku poreza ili posudbi, a ako se građani ne slažu sa suludom politikom tiranina mogu ga prestati financirati ili mu barem zagorčati život.

Slaba valuta, s druge strane, daje vladama mogućnost neograničene potrošnje i kupovanja pristanka stanovništva kratkoročnim ulaganjima.

Sposobnost stvaranja novca znači potencijalno neograničenu moć, a povijest je puna primjera u kojima je ta moć korištena na razorne načine.

Nije slučajnost da su svi najgori tirani u povijesti (Lenjin, Staljin, Mao, Hitler, Robespierre, Pol Pot, Mussolini, Kim Jon Il itd.) operirali sa slabom valutom koju su mogli stvarati po svom nahođenju. Jer izvlastiti je puno lakše nego naplatiti porez.

Bitcoin omogućuje prijenos novca i njegovo pohranjivanje bez potrebe za traženjem bilo čijeg dopuštenja.

Bitcoin se ne može uništiti, ne može se konfiscirati, ne može se krivotvoriti. Zbog toga je i osiguranje od pretjerane moći vlada i banaka.

Bitcoin je ekstremno učinkovit kao sredstvo razmjene budući da je digitalan, a iznimno je učinkovit kao pohrana vrijednosti imajući inflaciju koja teži ka nuli. Još uvijek je prevolatilan da bi bio obračunska jedinica, ali ima sve karakteristike da postane najbolja obračunska jedinica u povijesti.

Prevedeno s talijanskog lux_vitae@ln.tips ili lux@blink.sv

@ dfc7c785:4c3c6174

For many years I’ve been researching my family tree. I’ve always been intrigued by my middle name of Brewster which many of you (perhaps) might associate with William Brewster of the pilgrim fathers who settled in America some 400 years ago, after a treacherous journey across the Atlantic that lasted weeks; scary to think I crossed it in just 10 hours not so long ago much like tens of thousands do year upon year.

My grandmother was convinced he was a direct ancestor of ours. My Grandad disagreed on the basis that they set sail childless, their first born entering the world once they had settled on American shores. So how could it be possible that we were descendants?

Anyway I inherited my middle name from hers and was thus christened Nicholas Euan Brewster in 1972.

During my school years other kids found it amusing and being a bespectacled nerd, they teased me no end. I instead learnt to love it because for me, as I’ve learnt over the years, it represents bravery, ingenuity, leadership and a general resilience to the world around me. Surviving against all the odds.

I’ve never been able to draw a direct connection between myself and William, other than to learn about a city of the same name on Cape Cod, that I flew over recently on that same flight but still have never visited to this day. Not far from there in the American version of Plymouth they came ashore, some distance from their intended destination of Virginia. Weather prevented them from making their way down the coast, so Massachusetts became their new settlement point.

Many years ago I was researching the Brewsters and spoke to a fellow Brewster in the USA via Compuserve, who sent me a massive box of DVDs with genealogical data on them; holy Moses, I was overwhelmed and came to realise there were perhaps zillions of us. The information was interesting but I had no real way of making that link, even if there ever was one to be found.

In the end I turned back to reading the bundle of notes my late grandmother had left us, including a family tree and some papers on another man who became just as interesting to me. His name was Alfred Berry Brewster born of Victorian London.

The following was sourced from - https://www.soldiersofthequeen.com/softheq-nile-valley

Egypt, the Nile Valley & Sudan

In Khedival Service

What was the [[Khedival Service]]?

Alfred Berry Brewster was born in London, England on 7 November 1856.

Whereabouts in London was he born?

Brewster Bey entered Egyptian Service in 1877 (aged 21) in the Customs Administration and Coastguard Service. In 1879 he was appointed to the position of Director of Customs at [[Suakin]] by [[General Gordon]]. He served in the Commissariat staff during the Egyptian Campaign and was awarded the Egypt Medal w/Clasp as well as the Khedive's Star. He returned to Suakin and in 1883 did duty in Valentine Baker Pasha's Intelligence Department (1884).

In 1885 he served under General Graham at Suakin as Chief Interpreter and Secretary to the Intelligence Department.

He took part in several engagements and received a Mention in Despatches from General Graham (30 May 1885). Most notably Brewster entered the Dervish camp alone before a planned attack on Saukin and convinced a large number of the enemy to come over to the British side. These same men later served in the capture of Tamai.

Brewster remained Director of Customs for Saukin until 1890 when he transferred to the Coastguard Service as Secretary and Controller. He was chosen as Private Secretary by both Khedive Mohammed Tewfik and Abbas II.

![[Pasted image 20241229083331.png]] Further reading

https://www.britishmuseum.org/collection/term/BIOG121543

https://www.soldiersofthequeen.com/alfredberrybrewsterbey

https://www.soldiersofthequeen.com/alfredberrybrewsterbey

@ 2355757c:5ad3e04d

Grounding or Earthing, names for getting your good ole bare feet on the surface of the earth. Sounds simple because it is simple, but are the benefits really that profound? Short answer: YES

Grounding is really only so a modern health hack because we are so disconnected. Until the invention of modern footwear with insulated rubber/plastic soles, we were connected to the surface of the earth pretty much 24/7. Why does this matter? The Earth’s surface is a POOL of free electrons waiting for us to tap into. Electrons? Why do those matter. Electrons are the true currency of energy and the input to our energy production system (Electron Transport Chain) that produces ATP. The human body, like all other living things is electromagnetic. We use electrical signaling to operate our biology. Without a sufficient amount of electrons and sufficient voltage potential, our body will not function properly. However, it is not so simple to say more electrons = more health. If that were the case then we’d all be hooked up to copper wires absorbing current to level up our biology. 

TOO MUCH of anything is bad. Our skin has resistance to protect us from shocks and lightning strikes (absorbing too much electrical current at once). However, our hands and feet (with thousands of nerve endings) have lower skin resistance. Lower resistance = better ability to conduct electricity. That is not a mistake. Through contact of our feet or hands on the ground, we are able to sustain a voltage differential up to a few hundred millivolts (depending on the surface). These electrons on the surface of the earth are willing to move to a less negatively charge area (us), and thus we are able to absorb a small amount of free flowing electrons into our body through our semi-conductive tissue on our hands and feet. Sounds cool, right? Now what are the actual benefits?

1. Managing Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) and/or free radicals

2. Maintaining Proper Blood Flow & Pressure 

3. Regulating Cortisol & Circadian Rhythm

Oxidative stress. Anti-oxidants. Free radicals. These are all terms you MAY be familiar with, but what do they actually mean? If you read my newsletter from last week on Travel, you will know a bit more about oxidative stress and the function of anti-oxidants (if not, I will link it HERE). The TLDR is that our energy production process in our mitochondria, otherwise known as the Electron Transport Chain (ETC), is not perfect. As a result of this, free radicals are generated. Free radicals are typically oxygen molecules or molecules that contain oxygen (aka reactive oxygen species) that have an unpaired electron in their valence shell. O2 is supposed to be converted into metabolic water (H2O), but as mentioned the efficiency is not 100%. Therefore you get molecules like superoxide (O2-) or hydroxyl radical (OH) that are hungry to fill the unpaired electron and go back to stability. “Anti-oxidants” combat these radicals by attempting to supply an electron before they steal one from elsewhere in the cell and cause damage. Enter in newly absorbed electrons from grounding. These free electrons absorbed from the earth can help combat the free radicals/ROS by acting as an anti-oxidant. This will in turn help your body get back to redox homeostasis and not suffer cellular damage from oxidative stress. Grounding, in turn “reduces inflammation”. The thermal images often touted alongside grounding (before/after) show a positive response (thermal imaging can be a bit dodgy in accuracy but it captures some essence of effectiveness).

Maintaining proper blood flow and blood pressure. Perhaps the most interesting and fundamentally undebatable benefit of grounding. As stated above we are electromagnetic beings, and our blood flow exemplifies that. Both the lining of the blood vessel and surface of our red blood cells have a negative charge. This negative charge is imperative because it prevents rouleaux and coagulation, or the stacking of blood cells. If you blood cells stack, they are far easier to clump/clot and cause a blockage. Like charges repel, so having a sufficient “zeta potential” or negative charge on our RBCs will keep the blood flowing smoothly. Grounding helps maintain that. A study linked HERE showed how Earthing/Grounding reduces blood viscosity. 

“Grounding increases the surface charge on RBCs and thereby reduces blood viscosity and clumping. Grounding appears to be one of the simplest and yet most profound interventions for helping reduce cardiovascular risk and cardiovascular events.”

Regulating our circadian rhythm. A lesser touted benefit to grounding is its ability to influence our circadian rhythm or our “body clock”.

I am under the belief now that our circadian health is THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT of HEALTH. Why? Because literally all of our downstream biological functions are dictated by our circadian rhythm. This is why light, meal/exercise timing, sleep, connection to nature are all so important & interconnected.

The main input might be light, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t more inputs to the complex system that is our body. Connection to the earth is another. How do we know? Grounding has been proven to regulate cortisol rhythms. One of the biggest signs of a irregular circadian rhythm is cortisol and melatonin cycles that are out of whack. When you are grounded you are connected to the earth in the position of your geographical location. This is not proven, but its quite logical that the reason grounding helps regulate circadian rhythm is because along with those electrons you are getting a signal sent to your brain about the location/time/season it is where you are in that moment. It is the only logical explanation and it is one of the reasons I am such a big fan of grounding as MUCH as possible, especially after travel.

I recently released my first health optimization guide that includes all the travel hacks I use (including grounding) to completely avoid jet lag on long haul flights: AVOIDING JET LAG-An In Depth Guide to Hacking the Stressors of Travel.

This guide is extremely comprehensive, and application specific. It is a 30 page PDF that goes into WHY travel is so bad for us, and what you can do pre/during/post travel to avoid jet lag completely. If you travel often, this is worth checking out…but I warn you it is dense and only worth purchasing if you are willing to learn. 

Grounding PROTOCOLS:

1. Just do it-bare feet on the ground

2. Length? 1 min is better than 0…5 min even better…2 hours even better still. There is no threshold dose. 

3. Surfaces? Dirt/Grass/Rocks/Sand/Ocean all great. If it is wet and post thunderstorm, even better. Concrete works but asphalt is not the best. 

4. Grounding shoes? Not comparable to barefoot but still better than rubber/plastic soled shoes. I will write more about this in the near future as I am conducting experiments with different shoes on different surfaces. 

5. IT IS LITERALLY FREE

Big Grounding did not pay me to write this, even though I am an electrical engineer. Seriously, grounding is a no brainer. You may not “feel” anything, but the more you do it and the more disconnected you are to start…the better you will feel I can guarantee that. We are electromagnetic creates of Earth, it is about damn time we get back to connecting with our natural input signals. 

Stay Sovereign, 

-Tristan

Originally written July 25th, 2023

@ dd81a8ba:3eb298a5

it's better to read 100 books 10 times than 1,000 books once

I don't know who originated this concept. I've heard it said by Naval. the idea is to go deep on a narrower slice of possible books than to be spread so thin. this isn't so much an algorithm as a heuristic, a tactic for filtering the kinds of books you read, and also a way to measure your own growth over time. I've had the experience of getting something different from reading the same book at different points in my life. deliberately checking in with different books regularly over time is a good way to get an informative but different perspective on your own mentality.

this is my list. I'll be short of 100 for a while, the point is to make a tangible artifact out of it, and update it over time. let me know if you have or make a similar list and I'll add a link to your list here.

update 2/24

since I created the 100 books page and started shaping my reading around it, I have reached 100 books, and now in order to add one to the list I must first evict one already on the list.

I have also encountered a different way to refer to this project, and a sharper take on what I’m doing. it comes from an author with one book on my list already and more to come, Italo Calvino. the introduction to his book “Why Read the Classics?” is a quick read, and well worth it.

A classic is a book that has never finished saying what it has to say.

first, he defines “classic” to mean any book that once read, you return to again and again, and continue finding new takes, new value, fresh perspectives on. actually he lists many criteria, but that’s roughly what it boils down to, books that have meaning to you, which you read repeatedly at different stages in your life, a through-line to return to.

The ranks of the old titles have been decimated, while new ones have proliferated in all modern literatures and cultures. There is nothing for it but for all of us to invent our own ideal libraries of classics. I would say that such a library ought to be composed half of books we have read and that have really counted for us, and half of books we propose to read and presume will come to count—leaving a section of empty shelves for surprises and occasional discoveries.

consider any of these books a welcomed topic of conversation.

the list was last updated on Jan 7th, 2025

| title | Author | Genre | |-------|--------|-------| | "The Myth of Sisyphus" | Albert Camus | philosophy | | "Brave New World" | Aldous Huxley | distopian science fiction | | "The Doors of Perception" | Aldous Huxley | non-fiction | | "The Civil War Short Stories of Ambrose Bierce" | Ambrose Bierce | supernatural horror | | "The Little Prince" | Antoine De Saint Exuprey | children's | | "Nichomachean Ethics" | Aristotle | philosophy | | "Rendezvous With Rama" | Arthur C Clarke | science fiction | | "Atlas Shrugged" | Ayn Rand | fiction | | "The Fountainhead" | Ayn Rand | fiction | | "The Fractal Geometry of Nature" | Benoit Mandelbrot | maths | | "The History of Western Philosophy" | Betrand Russell | philosophy | | "Four Archetypes: Mother/Rebirth/Spirit/Trickster" | Carl Jung | philosophy | | "The Undiscovered Self" | Carl Jung | philosophy | | "Roadside Geology of Missouri" | Charles Spencer | non-fiction | | "A Pattern Language" | Christopher Alexander | non-fiction | | "On the Good Life" | Cicero | philosophy | | "All the Pretty Horses" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "Blood Meridian" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "No Country for Old Men" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "Stella Maris" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "the crossing" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "The Passenger" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "The Road" | Cormac McCarthy | fiction | | "Flowers for Algernon" | Daniel Keyes | fiction | | "The Beginning of Infinity" | David Deutsch | non-fiction | | "Forty Tales From the Afterlives" | David Eagleman | magical realism | | "Networks, Crowds, and Markets: Reasoning about a Highly Connected World" | David Easley and John Kleinberg | non-fiction | | "We Are Legion [We Are Bob]" | Dennis Taylor | science fiction | | "Godel, Escher, Bach" | Douglas Hofstadter | philosophy | | "The Discourses" | Epictetus | philosophy | | "The Revelations" | Erik Hoel | fiction | | "Kafka the Complete Stories" | Franz Kafka | fiction | | "The Mythical Man-Month" | Fred Brooks | non-fiction | | "Thus Spake Zarathustra" | Friedrich Nietzsche | philosophy | | "Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Disruptive Products to Mainstream Customers" | Geoffrey A. Moore | non-fiction | | "Nineteen Eighty-Four" | George Orwell | distopian science fiction | | "A Swim in a Pond in the Rain" | George Saunders | literature | | "Eon" | Greg Bear | science fiction | | "On Bullshit" | Harry G Frankfurt | philosophy | | "Walden and Other Writings" | Henry David Thoreau | non-fiction | | "Moby Dick" | Herman Melville | fiction | | "Siddhartha" | Hermann Hesse | philosophy | | "I, Roboot" | Isaac Asimov | science fiction | | "The Foundation" | Isaac Asimov | science fiction | | "The Naked Sun" | Isaac Asimov | science fiction | | "The Proper Study of Mankind" | Isaiah Berlin | philosophy | | "Invisible Cities" | Italo Calvino | magical realism | | "The Perigrine" | J A Baker | non-fiction | | "Chaos: Making a New Science" | James Gleick | non-fiction | | "Finite and Infinite Games: A Vision of Life as Play and Possibility" | James P. Carse | philosophy | | "Fancies and Goodnights" | John Collier | fantasy | | "The Dictionary of Obscure Sorrows" | John Koenig | fiction | | "Annals of the Former World: " | John McPhee | non-fiction | | "The Curve of Binding Energy" | John McPhee | non-fiction | | "Collected Fictions" | Jorge Luis Borges | fantasy | | "Hero With a Thousand Faces: The Collected Works of Joseph Campbell" | Joseph Campbell | philosophy | | "Heart of Darkness" | Joseph Conrad | fiction | | "The Death of Ivan Illych and Other Stories" | Leo Tolstoy | literature | | "The Mandibles" | Lionel Schriver | fiction | | "A Wrinkle in Time" | Madeleine L'Engle | young adult | | "M.C. Escher: His Life and Complete Graphic Work" | many | non-fiction | | "Meditations" | Marcus Aurelius | philosophy | | "Genome: The Autobiography of a Species in 23 Chapters" | Matt Ridley | science | | "Prey" | Michael Crichton | science fiction | | "Sphere" | Michael Crichton | fiction | | "Personal Knowledge: Towards a Post-Critical Philosophy" | Michael Polanyi | philosophy | | "Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience: Steps Toward Enhancing the Quality of Life" | Mihaly Csikszentmihaly | non-fiction | | "The Epic of Gilgamesh" | N. K. Sandars | legendary fiction | | "An Introduction to Population Genetics" | Nielson and Slatkin | non-fiction | | "Ender's Game" | Orson Scott Card | science fiction | | "Alas Babylon" | Pat Frank | science fiction | | "Hackers and Painters: Big Ideas from the Computer Age" | Paul Graham | non-fiction | | "The Alchemist" | Paulo Coelho | magical realism | | "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep" | Philip K Dick | science fiction | | "The Collected Stories of Philip K Dick Volume 5" | Philip K Dick | science fiction | | "The Trial and Death of Socrates" | Plato | philosophy | | "The Soundscape" | R. Murray Schafer | non-fiction | | "Dandelion Wine" | Ray Bradbury | fiction | | "Fahrenheit 451" | Ray Bradbury | fiction | | "Something Wicked This Way Comes" | Ray Bradbury | fiction | | "The Martian Chronicles" | Ray Bradbury | science fiction | | "The Selfish Gene" | Richard Dawkins | non-fiction | | "Surely You're Joking, Mr Feynman" | Richard Feynman | biography | | "The Creative Act: A Way of Living" | Rick Rubin | self-help | | "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry Into Values" | Robert Persig | fiction | | "Letters From a Stoic" | Seneca | philosophy | | "The Art of Living" | Sharon Lebell | philosophy | | "The Dark Tower" | Stephen King | fiction | | "Piranesi" | Susanna Clarke | magical realism | | "Stories of Your Life and Others" | Ted Chiang | science fiction | | "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" | Thomas Kuhn | non-fiction | | "Common Sense" | Thomas Paine | philosophy | | "The Kon-Tiki Expedition: A Raft Across the South Seas" | Thor Heyerdahl | non-fiction | | "The Kingdom of Speech" | Tom Wolf | non-fiction | | "The Right Stuff" | Tom Wolf | historic fiction | | "True Names: and the Opening of the Cyberspace Frontier" | Vernor Vinge | cyberpunk | | "Man's Search for Meaning" | Viktor Frankl | philosophy | | "The Shape of Things" | Vilem Flusser | non-fiction | | "The Twilight World" | Werner Herzog | historic fiction | | "Neuromancer" | William Gibson | cyberpunk |

@ ed84ce10:cccf4c2a

Hackathon Summary

The HackPrinceton Fall 2024 hackathon was held from November 8th to 10th at Princeton University. It attracted 238 developers who registered 99 projects, engaging participants in workshops, mentorship sessions, and presentations throughout the 36-hour event. The hackathon featured four main tracks: Education + Interaction, Healthcare, Finance, and Sustainability, which encouraged diverse and innovative ideas.

In addition to the main tracks, seventeen sponsored challenges were offered as bounties, adding a competitive element to the event. Participants submitted their projects via a public GitHub repository and showcased their work in two-minute presentations to judges on the final day. Notable outcomes included effective project demonstrations under time constraints, which enhanced the visibility of substantial ideas across different sectors.

Prizes were a significant motivator, with the grand overall prize being a set of AirPod Max for each member of the top team, while the second-place team received Xbox Series S consoles. HackPrinceton Fall 2024 facilitated skill development, collaboration, and creative solutions, showcasing robust engagement from both seasoned and first-time participants.

Hackathon Winners

Healthcare Prize Winners

• Bartimaeus: Stealing Vision Back - This project aids blind individuals in spatial navigation using audio guidance from a smartphone's camera, YOLO, and OpenCV, innovatively employing AI for precise pathfinding and object identification.

• PillPal Pro - A smart box solution ensures elderly patients adhere to medication routines through an ESP32 microcontroller, which facilitates tracking and notifications, complemented by a 3D-printed casing and Firebase integration.

• ReCall.ai - This project uses AI and wearable tech to recognize faces for individuals with cognitive impairments, supporting social interaction and providing cognitive health insights across various facilities.

• HealthSync - Enhances hospital coordination by assigning patient urgency scores and facilitating secure, real-time information exchange using a peer-to-peer network and advanced data security.

• Medbank - Offers a personalized health wallet that manages medical information and insurance details, utilizing AI for intelligent insurance processing and provider matching through geospatial analysis.

• HormoniQ - Addresses PCOS diagnosis challenges with a machine learning tool that analyzes hormonal patterns from health records, providing early intervention likelihoods to healthcare providers.

• World Translationator 5000 - This translation tool tackles language barriers in healthcare by employing quantum natural language processing for accurate translations of medical terminology.

Education and Interaction Prize Winners

• CrystalMath - An AI-driven platform for visualizing math problems through step-by-step animations and voiceovers, supported by Claude model computations and AWS hosting.

Finance Prize Winners

• Stratify - Democratizes investment by offering an AI-powered stock backtesting tool to optimize strategies through detailed analyses and user-friendly simulations.

• Asteroid Audit - Educates about taxes through a gamified experience, integrating Unity for game development and custom algorithms for visual tax estimation.

• Orbital Finance - Utilizes AI voice assistant technology for real-time customer interactions, offering advanced data analyses leveraging MATLAB and NLP for business growth.

Sustainability Prize Winners

• WasteWise - Analyzes waste data using computer vision and GPT-4 API to guide sustainable consumer habits through brand and recyclability evaluation.

• SustainAI - An AI-powered platform providing personalized sustainable lifestyle recommendations based on user data, integrating MATLAB for contextual data personalization.

Developer Tool Prize Winners

• Scraply - Simplifies deep learning education with a drag-and-drop interface for building neural networks, featuring algorithm suggestions and gamified learning.

Financial Innovation Prize Winners

• Chama - Facilitates crypto education with a real-time insights platform offering sentiment analysis and actionable recommendations, integrating OnChainKit for secure transactions.

• HackAwards - Empowers hackathon participation with NFTs via project ownership and contribution tracking, implemented using VerbWire API and Base Blockchain for efficient processing.

Explore all projects and further details at HackPrinceton Fall 2024.

About the Organizer:

HackPrinceton

HackPrinceton unites hackers globally to collaborate and innovate. Renowned for its immersive events, the organization provides workshops, lectures, and mentorship programs that foster skill development and inventive thinking. These sessions equip participants with the essential tools to create impactful projects, even for those without prior team or project ideas. HackPrinceton's dedication to nurturing creativity is evident in its comprehensive support for aspiring innovators, aligning with its mission to inspire the development of impactful, innovative ideas. More information is available at HackPrinceton's website.

@ fbf0e434:e1be6a39

Hackathon 总结

HackPrinceton Fall 2024 Hackathon 于 11 月 8 日至 10 日在普林斯顿大学举行。活动吸引了 238 名开发人员，他们注册了 99 个项目，参与者在为期 36 小时的活动中参与了研讨会、指导会议和展示。Hackathon 设有四个主要方向：教育 + 互动、医疗保健、金融和可持续性，鼓励多样化和创新的想法。

除了主要方向外，还提供了十七个由赞助商提供的挑战作为赏金，为活动增添了竞争元素。参与者通过公开的 GitHub 存储库提交他们的项目，并在最后一天向评委展示了两分钟展示。其中一个亮点是有效的项目"demo"，在时间限制下展示了不同行业的重大创意，提升了项目的可见度。

奖品是一个重要的激励因素，整体冠军奖是一套 AirPod Max，将颁发给获胜团队的每位成员，第二名团队将获得 Xbox Series S 游戏机。HackPrinceton Fall 2024 在技能发展、协作和创造性解决方案方面发挥了重要作用，展示了经验丰富和新手参与者的积极参与。

Hackathon 获奖者

Healthcare Prize Winners

• Bartimaeus: Stealing Vision Back - 该项目通过使用智能手机摄像头、YOLO 和 OpenCV 提供音频导航，帮助盲人进行空间导航，创新性地利用 AI 实现精准路径规划和物体识别。

• PillPal Pro - 一款智能盒子解决方案，通过 ESP32 微控制器确保老年患者遵循用药习惯，实现跟踪和通知功能，整合了 3D 打印外壳和 Firebase 功能。

• ReCall.ai - 该项目利用 AI 和可穿戴技术为认知障碍人士识别人脸，支持社交互动，并提供跨多种设施的认知健康洞察。

• HealthSync - 通过分配患者紧急程度评分并利用点对点网络和高级数据安全进行安全的实时信息交换，增强医院协调。

• Medbank - 提供个性化健康钱包，实现医疗信息和保险详情的管理，利用 AI 进行智能保险处理和地理空间分析实现供应商匹配。

• HormoniQ - 通过一款机器学习工具分析健康记录中的激素模式，解决 PCOS 诊断挑战，为医疗保健提供者提供早期干预可能性。

• World Translationator 5000 - 使用量子自然语言处理技术进行准确翻译，以解决医疗中的语言障碍。

Education and Interaction Prize Winners

• CrystalMath - 一个通过分步动画和语音解说可视化数学问题的 AI 驱动平台，使用 Claude 模型计算和 AWS 托管。

Finance Prize Winners

• Stratify - 提供一个 AI 驱动的股票回溯测试工具，通过详细分析和用户友好的模拟优化投资策略。

• Asteroid Audit - 通过游戏化的体验提供税务教育，整合 Unity 进行游戏开发，并使用自定义算法进行视觉税务估算。

• Orbital Finance - 使用 AI 语音助手技术进行实时客户互动，通过 MATLAB 和 NLP 提供深入的数据分析，助力业务增长。

Sustainability Prize Winners

• WasteWise - 使用计算机视觉和 GPT-4 API 分析垃圾数据，通过品牌和可回收性评价引导可持续的消费者习惯。

• SustainAI - 一个 AI 驱动的平台，根据用户数据提供个性化的可持续生活方式建议，利用 MATLAB 进行上下文数据个性化。

Developer Tool Prize Winners

• Scraply - 提供一个拖放界面简化深度学习教育，用于构建神经网络，具有算法建议和游戏化学习功能。

Financial Innovation Prize Winners

• Chama - 提供实时洞察平台，通过情感分析和可操作建议促进加密货币教育，整合 OnChainKit 进行安全交易。

• HackAwards - 通过项目所有权和贡献跟踪，使用 VerbWire API 和 Base Blockchain 实现高效处理，促进 Hackathon 参与。

浏览所有项目及更多详情请访问 HackPrinceton Fall 2024。

关于主办方：

HackPrinceton

HackPrinceton 将全球的黑客聚集在一起进行合作和创新。以沉浸式活动闻名，该组织提供研讨会、讲座和指导项目，促进技能发展和创新思维。这些活动为参与者提供了创造有影响力项目的必要工具，即使对那些没有初步团队或项目想法的人也是如此。HackPrinceton 致力于培养创造力，通过其全面支持为有抱负的创新者提供帮助，其使命是激发有影响力和创新性想法的生成。更多信息请访问 HackPrinceton 的网站。

@ 9e69e420:d12360c2

How to Make a Peanut Butter Sandwich Step by Step

Are you looking for a quick and easy snack? Look no further than the classic peanut butter sandwich! This how-to guide will walk you through the simple steps to make a delicious peanut butter sandwich.

Things you'll need:

• 2 slices of bread
• Peanut butter
• A knife

Instructions

1. Choose your bread: Start by selecting your favorite type of bread. White, wheat, or sourdough are all great options.
2. Spread the peanut butter: Take one slice of bread and evenly spread a generous amount of peanut butter on it. You can use as much or as little as you like, depending on your preference.
3. Add the second slice of bread: Place the second slice of bread on top of the peanut butter, with the bread side facing down.
4. Press down gently: Press down gently on the sandwich to make sure the bread slices stick together.
5. Cut the sandwich (optional): If you prefer your sandwich cut in half, use the knife to carefully cut it down the middle.

And there you have it! A delicious peanut butter sandwich that's ready to enjoy. Whether you're packing it for lunch or enjoying it as a snack, this classic sandwich is sure to hit the spot.

@ 6e24af77:b3f1350b

test

@ 0b14a03f:3f0257c2

In 1925, someone said, "Let's stop making light bulbs that last 2,500 hours; let's make them last 1,000 instead so we can grow our profits."

Then the internet was created, and what happened? Everything on it was commercialized, even ourselves.

After that, Bitcoin appeared. What did we do? We treated it as a fiat currency and created the same old financial vehicles around it.

What today is Wall Street, in the past, it was located in Holland. After that, something similar was in France. They both disappeared, but humans replicated it in the US. We're now seeing how it will collapse.. once again.

Thus, repeating the same things and thinking that we will obtain different results is a bit childish.

It takes much more energy to create something -new.

A lot of energy from the brain to create new neurological patterns, as well as, a lot of energy from the reality to manifest it.

However, aren't we sick of the same old things already?

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

bitcoinstandard.rs

---

PREUZMITE ODLOMAK

KUPITE KNJIGU

Autor Bitkoin standarda, ekonomista Sajfedin Amus, vešto uvodi svakog čitaoca u svet digitalnog novca pokazujući da bitkoin može da postane dominantni čuvar vrednosti u budućnosti, a jedna od glavnih snaga knjige je njena sposobnost da objasni kompleksne ekonomske i tehničke aspekte bitkoina na razumljiv i jednostavan način.

Sajfedin Amus prvo prikazuje fascinantnu istoriju tehnologija novca i istražuje šta je tim tehnologijama dalo njihovu monetarnu ulogu, kako su je izgubile, šta nas to uči o poželjnim osobinama novca i kako je bitkoin osmišljen da unapredi te tehnologije. Amus zatim objašnjava ekonomske, društvene, kulturne i političke prednosti zdravog novca u odnosu na nezdrav novac kako bi omogućio relevantnu raspravu o ulozi koju bi bitkoin mogao imati u digitalnoj ekonomiji budućnosti. Umesto kao valuta za kriminalce ili jeftina masovna mreža za plaćanja, ova knjiga pokazuje kako bitkoin izrasta kao decentralizovana, politički neutralna, slobodnotržišna alternativa nacionalnim centralnim bankama, sa potencijalno ogromnim implikacijama za individualnu slobodu i prosperitet.

Sa ovim osnovama, knjiga prelazi na objašnjenje funkcionisanja bitkoina na lak i intuitivan način. Bitkoin je decentralizovani, distribuirani softver koji omogućava svojim korisnicima da koriste internet za obavljanje tradicionalnih funkcija novca bez oslanjanja na bilo kakve autoritete ili infrastrukturu u fizičkom svetu. Bitkoin se tako najbolje razume kao prvi uspešno implementirani oblik digitalne gotovine i digitalnog tvrdog novca – digitalni oblik zlata.

Amusovo čvrsto razumevanje tehnoloških mogućnosti kao i istorijskih realnosti evolucije novca omogućava istraživanje posledica dobrovoljnog slobodnog tržišta novca. Izazivajući najsvetije državne monopole, bitkoin pomera klatno suvereniteta od vlada ka pojedincima, nudeći nam primamljivu mogućnost sveta u kojem je novac potpuno odvojen od politike i nesputan granicama.

Završno poglavlje knjige istražuje neka od najčešćih pitanja u vezi sa bitkoinom: Da li je rudarenje bitkoina rasipanje energije? Da li je bitkoin za kriminalce? Ko kontroliše bitkoin i mogu li ga promeniti ako žele? Kako se bitkoin može uništiti? I šta misliti o svim hiljadama kopija bitkoina i mnogim navodnim primenama bitkoinove „blockchain tehnologije“?

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na net.hr

05.12.2024 / Autor: Katarina Plantak

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Vrijednost Bitcoina po prvi put je premašila 100.000 dolara. Ova kriptovaluta svoj masovni rast može na neki način zahvaliti reizboru Donalda Trumpa za američkog predsjednika. On je najavio blaži regulatorni pristup kripto industriji.

Što je Bitcoin?

Bitcoin (BTC) je kriptovaluta (virtualna valuta) dizajnirana da djeluje kao novac i oblik plaćanja izvan kontrole bilo koje osobe, grupe ili entiteta. Time nema potrebe za sudjelovanjem pouzdane treće strane npr. kovnice novca ili banke u financijskim transakcijama. Osoba ili grupa pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto 31. listopada 2008. objavila je tehnički dokument pod nazivom "Bitcoin: Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System". Taj je dokument distribuiran na kriptografsku mailing listu, samo mjesec dana nakon što je investicijska banka Lehman Brothers podnijela zahtjev za najveći bankrot u povijesti SAD-a, a vlada odobrila financijsku pomoć od 700 milijardi dolara.

Nekoliko mjeseci kasnije, 3. siječnja 2009., Bitcoin mreža pokrenula se, uvodeći novi sustav decentralizirane digitalne valute bez središnjeg posrednika.

Tko su osnivači Bitcoina?

Bitcoin je rezultat desetljeća razvoja kriptografije i ideja Cypherpunka iz 1970-ih, s projektima poput B-money, Bit Gold, eCash i HashCash.

Godine 2006., osoba ili grupa pod pseudonimom Satoshi Nakamoto započela je rad na Bitcoinu. Iako su kriptografi poput Hal Finneya, Nicka Szaba, Weija Daija i Adama Backa povezivani sa Satoshijem, svi su to negirali.

Satoshi je surađivao s programerima do 2010., kada je predao kontrolu nad izvornim kodom i 2011. nestao iz javnosti. Danas stotine programera razvijaju Bitcoin, koji ima zajednicu od milijun korisnika.

Kako funkcionira Bitcoin?

Bitcoin se može brzo i sigurno prenijeti na svakoga s Bitcoin adresom poput računa bilo gdje u svijetu, bez potrebe za dopuštenjem ili plaćanjem nepotrebnih naknada. BTC je jedinica valute u Bitcoin sustavu za koju postoji ograničena količina od 21 milijun. Svaki je Bitcoin djeljiv na 100 milijuna "satoshis" ili "sats" – najmanja jedinica Bitcoina, poput centa u dolaru. Bitcoini djeluju kao elektronički novac, omogućujući vam da izvršite plaćanje s univerzalnom valutom bilo gdje. Nalazi se u tzv. novčanicima u digitalnoj verziji. On funkcionira slično kao bankovni račun. Transakcije su moguće zahvaljujući peer-to-peer mreži. Osigurane su sustavom kriptografije javnog i privatnog ključa, objašnjava Kriptomat.

Bitcoin koristi kriptografiju javnog i privatnog ključa za sigurne transakcije. Javna adresa, izvedena iz "hasha" javnog ključa, koristi se za primanje sredstava. Privatni ključ služi kao digitalni potpis odnosno svojevrsna lozinka za autorizaciju transakcija i omogućava pristup sredstvima, pa ga treba čuvati u tajnosti.

Korisnik pokreće transakciju unosom javne adrese primatelja u svoj novčanik. Novčanik koristi privatni ključ za stvaranje digitalnog potpisa, čime se transakcija ovjerava i šalje na Bitcoin mrežu. Transakcija prvo ulazi u "mempool", gdje čeka potvrdu. Svakih desetak minuta, transakcije se grupiraju u blokove, koji se dodaju na blockchain, stvarajući neprekinuti lanac sigurnih zapisa.

Sigurnost sustava je toliko snažna da bi hakiranje jedne adrese trajalo milijardama godina.

Blockchain

Bitcoin je revolucionarno riješio problem dvostruke potrošnje, omogućujući prijenos sredstava izravno između korisnika bez posrednika. Zamislite mrežu stranaca, gdje svaki vodi vlastitu knjigu računa. Kada netko prenese 1 BTC, svi zapisuju transakciju i uspoređuju bilješke. Ako se sve podudaraju, transakcija se potvrđuje. Ako netko pokuša prevariti, njegova bilješka se odbacuje.

Ovaj sustav knjiga računa, distribuiran na globalnoj mreži, čini osnovu Bitcoin blockchaina. Svaki čvor ima identičnu kopiju koja javno i pseudonimno bilježi sve transakcije, osiguravajući točnost i sigurnost bez potrebe za skupim posrednicima.

Zašto je Bitcoin jedinstven i što mu daje vrijednost?

Bitcoin je revolucionirao digitalni novac stvaranjem decentraliziranog, sigurnog i otpornog sustava bez potrebe za posrednicima. Njegov kod omogućuje daljnje inovacije, a povremeno dolazi do "račvanja" koje stvara nove kriptovalute temeljene na Bitcoinu, iako one nikada ne mogu biti isti Bitcoin.

Njegova ključna snaga leži u decentralizaciji – nema središnje figure niti točke neuspjeha. Bitcoin se pokazao kao otporan na izazove, uključujući državne zabrane i snažna račvanja, što dodatno učvršćuje njegovu dugovječnost prema Lindyjevom efektu. Mrežni učinak potiče sve više korisnika da ga prihvate kao sredstvo za pohranu vrijednosti i razmjenu.

Njegova ograničena ponuda od 21 milijun BTC-a stvara oskudicu, čime se suprotstavlja inflacijskim valutama. Bitcoin je zamjenjiv, djeljiv na 100 milijuna dijelova, izdržljiv i prenosiv, što ga čini praktičnijim od zlata. S rastućim prihvaćanjem od strane tvrtki diljem svijeta, njegova vrijednost i korisnost nastavljaju rasti.

Blokovi, rudarenje i nagrade

Prvi Bitcoinblock izrudiran je 3. siječnja 2009. godine. Nazvan je Blok 0. Rudarenje Bitcoina je utrka između rudara za raspršivanje specifičnih vrijednosti i drugih informacija o bloku kako bi se pronašlo rješenje za problem raspršivanja i dodalo blok u blockchain. Pobjednički rudar nagrađen je Bitcoinima. Bitcoin nagrade se prepolovljuju svakih 210.000 blokova. Na primjer, nagrada za blok bila je 50 novih bitcoina u 2009. godini, a 11. svibnja 2020. kad se dogodilo treće prepolovljenje nagrada za svaki blok smanjena je na 6.25 bitcoina. Četvrto prepolovljenje dogodilo se u travnju 2024. i smanjilo je nagradu na 3.125 Bitcoina. Sljedeće prepolovljavanje trebalo bi se dogoditi sredinom 2028. i smanjiti nagradu na 1.5625 BTC.

Do 2140. godine, nakon 32. prepolovljenja, nagrada za rudarenje Bitcoina smanjit će se na nulu, dosegnuvši ukupnu ponudu od 21 milijun BTC-a. Tada će se rudari oslanjati isključivo na naknade za transakcije kako bi pokrili svoje troškove.

Svako prepolovljenje smanjuje količinu novih BTC-a, što povijesno dovodi do porasta cijene zbog smanjene ponude i povećane potražnje. Iako će se učinak budućih prepolovljenja možda smanjivati zbog sve manjih količina nove ponude, do sada su ta prepolovljenja bila ključni pokretači triju glavnih tržišnih ciklusa Bitcoina.

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Originalni tekst na antenam.net

31.10.2024 / Autor: Ana Nives Radović

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Godišnjica objavljivanja revolucionarnog dokumenta nije samo podsjetnik na nastanak Bitcoina, već i na značajnu promjenu koju je donio u načinu na koji razmišljamo o novcu i ekonomskom suverenitetu. Njegov značaj premašuje ideju o zaradi na promjeni njegove vrijednosti, jer otvara vrata širem razumijevanju digitalne imovine i decentralizovanih finansija koje inspirišu moderno bankarstvo i platne sisteme da se razvijaju u drugačijem smjeru, povećavajući svijest o sigurnosti i dostupnosti.

Šesnaest je godina od objavljivanja dokumenta naslovljenog kao "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System", poznatog i kao „biijeli papir“ (white paper) u kojem su izloženi koncept i svrha novog sistema digitalne valute – sistema koji bi funkcionisao nezavisno od bilo koje vlade ili finansijske institucije. Bijeli papir, kojeg je 31. oktobra 2008. objavio pojedinac ili tim ljudi pod imenom Satoši Nakamoto ponudio je smjelo rješenje za sve veći problem – kontrolu valute centralnih banaka i sve veće poteškoće u prenošenju vrijednosti preko interneta bez posrednika. Ovaj trenutak označio je nastanak Bitcoina, revolucionarne digitalne valute i prve kriptovalute na svijetu koja je kasnije lansirana 3. januara 2009. godine.

Bitcoin je nastao u vrijeme finansijske krize 2008. godine, u periodu kada je povjerenje u tradicionalne finansijske sisteme bilo na izuzetno niskom nivou. Ljudi su počeli da se pitaju da li postoji način za upravljanje novcem koji ne zavisi od banaka, koje, kao što su tadašnji događaji pokazali, mogu propasti ili djelovati na načine koji nijesu u najboljem interesu javnosti. Nakamotova inovacija, Bitcoin, bila je zamišljena kao sistem u kojem korisnici mogu direktno slati i primati novac, zaobilazeći potrebu za bankama. U tom procesu, Nakamoto je svijetu predstavio novu tehnologiju kojoj je kasnije američki naučnik i programer Harold Fini dao naziv blockchain – decentralizovan i otporan na manipulacije način za evidentiranje transakcija.

Šta je Bitcoin?

Bitcoin je vrsta digitalne valute koja omogućava ljudima da direktno jedni drugima šalju i primaju vrijednost putem interneta. Za razliku od tradicionalnih valuta, kao što je euro ili dolar, koje kontrolišu vlade i banke, Bitcoin funkcioniše bez centralne vlasti. To znači da nema nikoga ko je zadužen za njega i nema banke koja odlučuje kako se može koristiti. Umjesto toga, Bitcoin se oslanja na veliku mrežu računara širom svijeta koja ga održava i bilježi njegove transakcije. Ova mreža je poznata kao „Bitcoin mreža“.

Kako Bitcoin funkcioniše?

U suštini, Bitcoin funkcioniše kao „decentralizovana digitalna valuta“. Kada kažemo decentralizovana, mislimo da nijedna osoba, kompanija ili vlada ne kontroliše Bitcoin. Umjesto toga, svaka transakcija se bilježi na zajedničkoj knjizi, nazvanoj blockchain, koju održava mreža računara širom svijeta. Svaki put kada neko pošalje ili primi Bitcoin, transakcija se grupiše sa drugima i dodaje u ovaj lanac blokova. Budući da je ovaj lanac kopiran i dijeljen među brojnim računarima, gotovo je neizvodljivo izmijeniti ili hakovati ga, čime se osigurava da Bitcoin transakcije budu bezbjedne i pouzdane.

Još jedan interesantan aspekt je da Bitcoin ima ograničenu ponudu. Kreiran je samo 21 milion bitcoina, što ga čini rijetkom imovinom i sprečava inflaciju na način na koji to može biti slučaj sa tradicionalnim valutama koje se „doštampavaju“. Bitcoin transakcije su omogućene kroz skup kriptografskih pravila, koja ljudima omogućavaju da potvrde svaku transakciju kao legitimnu bez potrebe da vjeruju trećoj strani. Ovaj skup pravila je poznat kao kriptografija, zbog čega se Bitcoin naziva kriptovalutom – prvom koja je ikada stvorena i jedinom koja u potpunosti ima sve karakteristike onoga što je istinska ideja i svrha postojanja kriptovaluta.

Razumijevanje finansijske revolucije Bitcoina

Bitcoin, predstavljen 2008. godine, privukao je globalnu pažnju kao decentralizovana digitalna valuta koja funkcioniše nezavisno od banaka i vlada, ali pored svoje peer-to-peer arhitekture i decentralizovane infrastrukture, on ima jedinstvenu finansijsku karakteristiku – inherentno je deflatoran. Za razliku od fiat valuta poput dolara ili eura, koje centralne banke mogu štampati kada procijene da je to potrebno, ponuda Bitcoina je ograničena, fiksirana i ne povećava se. Ova deflatorna osobina navela je mnoge da ga vide kao revolucionarni finansijski instrument, „digitalno zlato“ koje bi moglo da preoblikuje koncepte vrijednosti, očuvanja bogatstva i monetarne politike.

Fiksna ponuda – limit od 21 miliona

Najkarakterističnija odlika Bitcoina je njegova ograničena ponuda. Kada je Satoši Nakamoto kreirao Bitcoin, postavio je ograničenje na ukupan broj bitcoina koji će ikada postojati – 21 milion. Ovo ograničenje se oštro razlikuje od tradicionalnih fiat valuta, gdje centralne banke mogu povećavati ponudu novca štampanjem dodatne količine. Postavljanjem ovog ograničenja, Nakamoto je osigurao da Bitcoin postane sve rjeđi vremenom, karakteristika koja je dizajnirana za očuvanje vrijednosti kako potražnja raste.

U tradicionalnim finansijama, valute mogu izgubiti vrijednost kada se previše štampaju, što se može vidjeti u slučajevima inflacije. Bitcoinov dizajn, međutim, znači da, kada se posljednji Bitcoin izrudari (što se predviđa oko 2140. godine), novi novčići neće ulaziti u cirkulaciju, što ga efektivno čini prvom deflatornom valutom u velikom obimu.

Mehanizam smanjenje ponude tokom vremena

Oskudica Bitcoina dodatno se pojačava procesom nazvanim „halving“ (prepolovljenje), koji smanjuje stopu stvaranja novih bitcoina. Približno svake četiri godine nagrada koju „rudari“ dobijaju za dodavanje novih blokova u blockchain se prepolovi. Ovaj mehanizam smanjuje mogućnost inflacije Bitcoina tokom vremena, stvarajući predvidivo, postepeno smanjenje ponude.

U početku su rudari dobijali 50 bitcoina po bloku. Nakon prvog halvinga 2012. godine, nagrada je pala na 25, a do 2020. smanjila se na 6,25 bitcoina po bloku. Ovaj proces halvinga će se nastaviti sve do približno 2140. godine, kada će svih 21 milion bitcoina biti u cirkulaciji, a rudari će biti podstaknuti isključivo transakcionim naknadama, umjesto novim novčićima. Halving ima dva osnovna učinka – usporava rast ponude Bitcoina i stvara predvidivu oskudicu koja može podstaći tražnju, jer učesnici na tržištu znaju da će sa svakim ciklusom biti sve manje dostupnih bitcoina.

Zašto je Bitcoin važan?

Većina tradicionalnih valuta je inflaciona po dizajnu. Centralne banke teže kontrolisanoj stopi inflacije, često oko 2%, kako bi podstakle ekonomski rast, ohrabrile potrošnju i pružile fleksibilnost u odgovoru na ekonomske krize. Međutim, ova inflacija može potkopati kupovnu moć fiat valuta vremenom, što je zabrinjavajuće tokom perioda prekomjernog štampanja novca, kao što su mjere i programi kvantitativnog popuštanja viđene posljednjih godina.

Bitcoinov deflatorni dizajn je revolucionaran u ovom kontekstu jer nudi potencijalnu zaštitu od inflacije. Sa fiksnom ponudom, Bitcoin može da dobija na vrijednosti tokom vremena, posebno ako potražnja raste jer postaje rjeđi. Za mnoge, deflatorni model Bitcoina čini ga privlačnim sredstvom za očuvanje bogatstva na način koji tradicionalne valute i imovina ne mogu da ponude.

Pored toga, ovaj model izazvao je promjenu čitave filozofije u načinu na koji ljudi razmišljaju o novcu, investiranju i štednji. Dok tradicionalne finansije podstiču potrošnju i investicije kroz inflaciju, deflatorna priroda Bitcoina može podstaći štednju, jer bi njegova vrijednost mogla da raste u budućnosti. Ovaj kvalitet „čuvara vrijednosti“ naveo je mnoge da Bitcoinu daju naziv „digitalno zlato“.

Ekonomija oskudice – ono što Bitcoinu daje vrijednost

U ekonomiji, oskudica obično povećava vrijednost, jer tražnja za ograničenim resursom može povećati njegovu cijenu. Zlato je, na primjer, dugo bilo čuvar vrijednosti zbog svoje oskudice i poteškoća u vađenju. Bitcoin odražava ovaj koncept u digitalnom svijetu. Inherentno je rijedak zbog ograničenja od 21 milion, i, kao zlato, zahtijeva trud (kroz digitalno rudarenje) da bi ušao u cirkulaciju.

Pored toga, oskudica Bitcoina postaje sve izraženija kako raste interesovanje institucija i pojedinaca. Mnogi investitori privučeni su Bitcoinom kao dugoročnom imovinom upravo zbog ove fiksne ponude, oslanjajući se na to da će rastuća tražnja naspram ograničene ponude povećati njegovu vrijednost tokom vremena. Ova privlačnost je pojačana u regionima sa brzom inflacijom ili ekonomskom nestabilnošću, gdje rizik od devalvacije čini Bitcoin privlačnom alternativom za očuvanje bogatstva.

Bitcoin kao globalni čuvar vrijednosti

Osim što je sredstvo razmjene, deflatorna priroda Bitcoina pozicionira ga kao potencijalni globalni čuvar vrijednosti. Zlato je istorijski imalo ovu ulogu, jer su ga koristili pojedinci, institucije i vlade kao zaštitu od ekonomske nestabilnosti i inflacije. Bitcoin postaje moderni pandan tome, posebno privlačan mlađim generacijama i investitorima sklonim tehnologiji, koji ga vide kao superiornu alternativu.

Deflatorni dizajn takođe omogućava Bitcoinu da prelazi međunarodne granice i nadilazi lokalne ekonomske uslove. U zemljama koje prolaze kroz valutne krize, Bitcoin nudi alternativu koja je bez granica i nezavisna od politika centralne banke. Ova sposobnost da djeluje kao čuvar vrijednosti posebno je značajna na tržištima i ekonomijama u razvoju, gdje je valutna nestabilnost učestalija.

Može li oskudica Bitcoina predstavljati rizik?

Iako deflatorni model Bitcoina ima svoje prednosti, nije bez kritika. Jedna od zabrinutosti je da ekstremna deflacija može obeshrabriti potrošnju. U sistemu gdje vrijednost valute raste tokom vremena, ljudi mogu preferirati štednju umjesto potrošnje ili investiranja, što može dovesti do smanjenja ekonomske aktivnosti. Ekonomisti brinu da bi, ako Bitcoin postane široko prihvaćena valuta, njegova deflatorna priroda mogla ugroziti ekonomski rast podsticanjem „gomilanja“ umesto cirkulacije.

Još jedna kritika se odnosi na fiksnu ponudu Bitcoina u ekonomiji koja stalno raste. Tradicionalne valute su inflatorne kako bi pratile rast populacije, ekonomije i produktivnosti. Sa ograničenom ponudom, Bitcoin ne može da raste u skladu sa ekonomskim razvojem, što bi u teoriji moglo izazvati probleme sa likvidnošću u ekonomiji zasnovanoj na Bitcoinu. Ipak, kako ideja nije da Bitcoin bude jedino sredstvo plaćanja, strah od takvog scenarija je neutemeljen, budući da ekosistem u kojem funkcioniše koegzistira sa nizom drugih platnih sistemna koji su na raspolaganju širom svijeta.

Eliminiše problem dvostrukog trošenja

U svijetu novca postoji veliki problem koji se naziva „dvostruko trošenje“. Zamislite da možete potrošiti iste eure dvaput – platite jedan proizvod ili uslugu, a zatim, nekako, uspijete da ga ponovo potrošite na nešto drugo. U fizičkom svijetu ovo nije problem, ali u računovodstvenom jeste. Ako kao fizičku valutu u gotovini platite nešto, ta količina novca odlazi iz vašeg novčanika, ali u bankovnim transakcijama stvari funkcionišu drugačije.

Da bi se osiguralo da Bitcoin ne može biti kopiran ili potrošen dvaput, koristi se tehnologija zvana blockchain. Nakamotov Bijeli papir još nije pomenuo taj izraz, jer mu je naziv dat nekoliko dana kasnije, no umjesto toga, opisao je koncept „lanca blokova“, postavljajući sistem za evidentiranje transakcija u blokovima koji su međusobno povezani. Ovaj koncept je kasnije postao poznat kao blockchain, termin koji je nastao nakon izdavanja Bitcoina dok su ljudi pokušavali da imenuju osnovnu tehnologiju. Fokus Bijelog papira bio je na tome kako Bitcoin može bezbjedno pratiti i potvrđivati transakcije, koristeći ovaj povezani lanac blokova kao neku vrstu digitalne knjige.

Pristup iz Bijelog papira uveo je revolucionarnu ideju – zajedničku, otpornu na manipulacije evidenciju koja se nije oslanjala na centralnu vlast za ažuriranje ili verifikaciju. Ovaj sistem povezanih blokova (ono što sada nazivamo blockchain) postao je osnova Bitcoina i, kasnije, bezbroj drugih primjena u finansijama, tehnologiji i brojnim drugim oblastima.

Ova baza je poput ogromne digitalne knjige, ili evidencije, u kojoj je svaka Bitcoin transakcija (prenosa novca od jednog do drugog korisnika) zabilježena. Ono što ovu digitalnu evidenciju čini posebnom jeste to što nije smještena na jednom mjestu, niti je pod kontrolom jedne osobe ili institucije – ona je u potpunosti decentralizovana, što znači da se kopije ove knjige čuvaju na hiljadama računara širom svijeta, a svi oni moraju da se saglase oko toga koje transakcije su validne.

Svaki put kada neko pošalje Bitcoin drugoj osobi, ova transakcija se dodaje u blockchain. Da bi se dodala, grupa računara (nazvana „rudari“) mora da verifikuje da je ova transakcija stvarna, što znači da Bitcoin koji se troši već nije korišćen drugdje. Ovi rudari rade zajedno, koristeći složene matematičke operacije, kako bi potvrdili transakcije. Kada se verifikuje, transakcija se dodaje u blockchain, a cijela mreža se ažurira kako bi prepoznala ovu transakciju kao legitimnu. Ovaj proces osigurava da nijedan Bitcoin ne može biti potrošen dvaput, rješavajući problem dvostrukog trošenja.

Peer-to-Peer transakcije bez posrednika

Još jedan veliki razlog zašto je Bitcoin važan je taj što omogućava ljudima da šalju novac direktno jedni drugima bez potrebe za posrednikom. Recimo da želite da pošaljete novac prijatelju koji živi u drugoj zemlji. Obično biste otišli u svoju banku, koja bi se povezala s drugom bankom u toj zemlji, što može trajati danima i uključivati različite naknade.

Međutim, Bitcoin je omogućio da se direktno pošalju sredstva, bez obzira na to gdje se nalazite u svijetu. Pošto je u pitanju peer-to-peer (P2P) način razmjene, nema potrebe za posrednikom da upravlja transakcijom. To može učiniti transakcije bržim i ponekad jeftinijim, posebno kada se sredstva šalju međunarodno. Ova P2P struktura je jedan od glavnih razloga zbog kojih ljudi se na ovaj oblik imovine gleda kao na alternativu složenim transakcijama, posebno važnim za društva i sredine u kojima je dostupnost finansijskih usluga niska.

Transparentnost i sigurnost

U svijetu tradicionalnog bankarstva, ljudi se oslanjaju na banke koje drže novac sigurnim i omogućavaju da transakcije budu poštene i sigurne. Međutim, s Bitcoinom, povjerenje nije smešteno u centralnu banku ili kompaniju, već u samu Bitcoin mrežu, koju održavaju svi računari koji prate blockchain. Pošto je blockchain javan i može ga provjeriti bilo ko, on je veoma transparentan. Svaka transakcija koja je ikada obavljena Bitcoinom zabilježena je u ovoj javnoj knjizi, tako da ako neko pokuša da prevari sistem, to bi bilo očigledno svima.

Transparentnost Bitcoina takođe ga čini veoma sigurnim. Pošto svi u mreži imaju kopiju blockchaina, bilo bi gotovo nemoguće da jedna osoba ili čak grupa ljudi izmijeni ili preuzme kontrolu nad njim. Da biste promijenili blockchain, morali biste kontrolisati više od polovine svih računara širom svijeta u Bitcoin mreži, što je izuzetno teško. Ovaj nivo sigurnosti, u kombinaciji s transparentnošću, pomaže ljudima da se osjećaju sigurno koristeći Bitcoin.

Značaj za razvoj finansija

Tokom godina, Bitcoin je postao više od eksperimenta u digitalnom novcu. Inspirisao je hiljade drugih kreatora latnih rješenja i pokrenuo važne razgovore o budućnosti novca, povjerenja i tehnologije. Kako sve više ljudi počinje da preispituje kako tradicionalne banke funkcionišu i traži nove načine za upravljanje svojim finansijama, Bitcoin ostaje snažna opcija ne samo u smislu alternative, već mogućnosti povezivanja njegove funkcionalnosti sa onim što već postoji u finansijskoj tehnologiji. Njegov značaj je u tome što predstavlja potpuno novi način razmišljanja o novcu i njegovom korišćenju i što rješava neke od ključnih problema koji su karakteristični finansijske sisteme.

Ideja decentralizacije

U mnogim sistemima koje danas koristimo postoji centralna vlast – banka, vlada ili kompanija – koja ima kontrolu i koja donosi pravila, odlučuje ko ima pristup i odobrava aktivnosti, što je prilično spor i skup proces u cjelini. Koncept Bitcoina je drugačiji jer je decentralizovan, a to znači da ne postoji jedna osoba, banka ili organizacija koja donosi odluke, već je to prepušteno mreži koju čine milioni korisničkih uređaja na mreži koji održavaju sistem u funkciji.

Pored toga, decentralizacija onemogućava cenzurisanje, jer niko ne može da interveniše i blokira nečiji pristup ili transakcije. To čini sistem demokratskijim, omogućavajući ljudima širom svijeta da se pridruže bez traženja dozvole.

Kriptografski dokazi – vjerovanje u matematiku, a ne u ljude

Kada nešto kupite koristeći Bitcoin, ne morate se oslanjati na posrednika da verifikuje vašu transakciju. Umjesto toga, Bitcoin koristi nešto što se naziva „kriptografskim dokazom. Kriptografski dokazi su poput digitalnog ključa i brave koji čuvaju informacije sigurnima, jer se oslanjaju na složenu matematiku koja osigurava da se samo validne transakcije dodaju u blockchain, onemogućavajući falsifikovanje ili prevaru.

Kriptografski dokazi funkcionišu tako što kreiraju heš (hash) – dug i jedinstven broj, za svaki blok transakcija. Svaki heš je povezan s prethodnim, što pomaže u obezbjeđivanju cijelog lanca. Matematika iza ovog procesa je toliko složena da bi zahtijevala ogromnu računarsku moć kada bi i pokušala da je razbije. Koristeći kriptografske dokaze, Bitcoin ne zahtijeva povjerenje u ljude, već se umjesto toga, oslanja na neprobojne matematičke algoritme da osigura svaku transakciju.

Proof of Work – digitalna zagonetka koja štiti Bitcoin

Bitcoinova mreža je osigurana procesom koji se naziva Proof of Work (dokaz o radu), koji je najjednostavnije razumjeti ako ga zamislite kao izazovnu zagonetku koju računari, poznati kao „rudari“, moraju da riješe da bi dodali novi blok u blockchain. Prvi računar koji riješi zagonetku dobija priliku da doda blok i dobija nagradu u bitcoinima. Ova zagonetka je izuzetno složena i zahtijeva od rudara da koristi veliku količinu mnogo računarske snage, što je skupo u smislu vremena i energije.

U tom smislu Proof of Work čuva mrežu sigurnom, jer kad bi neko pokušao da prevari sistem ponovnim pisanjem blockchaina, morao ponovo da uradi svako izračunavanja dokaza o radu za svaki blok koji želi da izmijeni, što je praktično nemoguće. Na ovaj način Bitcoin kreira mrežni sistem u kojem je prevara previše skupa i previše složena da bi se bilo kome isplatila.

Šesnaest godina kasnije...

Bitcoin je za ovo vrijeme postao mnogo više od digitalne valute – on je simbol finansijske nezavisnosti i pokretačka snaga nove finansijske tehnologije i ekonomskih koncepata. Pokrenuo je diskusije o budućnosti novca, a inspirisao je brojne pružaoce platnih usluga, uključujući brojne banke širom svijeta i FinTech kompanije, da unapređuju poslovni model.

Zbog količine koja je u opticaju njegova upotreba kao valute ostaje ograničena u poređenju s tradicionalnim novcem, dok njegova cijena nastavlja da fluktuira u zavisnosti od tržišnih okolnosti. U tom smislu uticaj Bitcoina na finansije, tehnologiju i društvo u cjelini već je dubok, navodeći promišljenije i kreativnije istraživanje kako se vrednostima može upravljati i razmenjivati u savremenom svijetu, podstičući značaj decentralizacije i svijest o zaštiti podataka.

Iako često predstavljan kao sredstvo za „brzo bogaćenje“ ili sresdstvo za obavljanje anonimnih transakcija, motivi za njegovo kreiranje, kao i njegova uloga u finansijskom i tehnološkom svijetu potpuno se razlikuju od toga. Bitcoin je prva, najstarija, najvrednija i – u najširem smislu – po svim parametrima jedina prava, potpuno decenztralizovana kriptovaluta koja je transformisala način na koji razmišljamo o novcu, povjerenju i bezbednosti u digitalnoj eri.

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El Mirador San Nicolás es el espacio correcto para iniciar la previa al tour por Granada, en España. Con un par de flamencos cantando con una buena guitarra acústica, se armoniza la experiencia de mi primer atardecer en la ciudad y para todos los turistas que estamos en pleno diciembre, frente a la cordillera de Sierra Nevada.

El Mirador San Nicolás es el espacio correcto para iniciar la previa al tour por Granada, en España. Con un par de flamencos cantando con una buena guitarra acústica, se armoniza la experiencia de mi primer atardecer en la ciudad y para todos los turistas que estamos en pleno diciembre, frente a la cordillera de Sierra Nevada.

\ Recordemos que Granada fue habitada en sus tiempos mozos por los árabes en el siglo VIII, durante la conquista musulmana de la Península Ibérica. Tras la fragmentación del Califato de Córdoba, en 1238, Muhammad I fundó la dinastía nazarí, dando inicio a uno de los períodos más destacados de la ciudad.

Durante la dominación nazarí, Granada floreció como un centro cultural, económico y artístico. Se construyó la majestuosa Alhambra, un espectáculo arquitectónico e ingenieril que simboliza la cumbre del arte islámico en España. Además, la ciudad destacó por ser un cosmo religioso, siendo hogar de comunidades musulmanas, cristianas y judías.

Fue así que en la reconquista, en 1492, los Reyes Católicos, Isabel y Fernando, pusieron fin a casi 800 años de dominio musulmán en la región, que incluyó la expulsión de judíos y musulmanes o su conversión al cristianismo. Aunque el dominio musulmán terminó, su legado perdura de manera viva en la ciudad con la arquitectura, la gastronomía y la cultura de Granada. La Alhambra, el Generalife y el Albaicín son testigos vivos de este pasado glorioso y constituyen un patrimonio invaluable que atrae a millones de visitantes de todo el mundo.

Ya cayendo la noche, bajando por el Albaicín, se aprecian las calles estrechas y de adoquines, con distintas puertas interesantes y entradas que hacen vivir la experiencia de un autóctono barrio árabe. Entre medio, el Balcón de San Nicolás, que te invita a ser parte del espectáculo que es ver la Alhambra de noche, que desde afuera son la invitación perfecta para disfrutar con café o un buen trago, esa postal que parece pintada por algún artista desconocido del 1.900.

Mezquita Mayor de Granada. Café en el Balcón San Nicolás. Luego del café y con un poco de calor en el cuerpo, continúa la caminata camino al centro hasta donde vas encontrando por el camino una serie de vestigios del mundo árabe que permiten reforzar que Granada seguirá siendo centro del reino nazarí. Su arquitectura es un recuerdo vivo y un encuentro con los particulares mercados que ofrecen menaje, lámparas, zapatillas y una serie de artículos que me transportan a oriente, incluyendo centros de estudios que me instan a querer volver.

Finalmente, logro llegar al centro de Granada y como bien escribió Federico García Lorca, orgulloso Granadino; «Granada está indefensa ante la gente, porque ante los halagos, nada ni nadie tiene modo de defenderse», y esta es tan solo la primera parte de un viaje en el tiempo y espacio en la grandiosa España.

Continuará…Recordemos que Granada fue habitada en sus tiempos mozos por los árabes en el siglo VIII, durante la conquista musulmana de la Península Ibérica. Tras la fragmentación del Califato de Córdoba, en 1238, Muhammad I fundó la dinastía nazarí, dando inicio a uno de los períodos más destacados de la ciudad.

Durante la dominación nazarí, Granada floreció como un centro cultural, económico y artístico. Se construyó la majestuosa Alhambra, un espectáculo arquitectónico e ingenieril que simboliza la cumbre del arte islámico en España. Además, la ciudad destacó por ser un cosmo religioso, siendo hogar de comunidades musulmanas, cristianas y judías.

Fue así que en la reconquista, en 1492, los Reyes Católicos, Isabel y Fernando, pusieron fin a casi 800 años de dominio musulmán en la región, que incluyó la expulsión de judíos y musulmanes o su conversión al cristianismo.

Aunque el dominio musulmán terminó, su legado perdura de manera viva en la ciudad con la arquitectura, la gastronomía y la cultura de Granada. La Alhambra, el Generalife y el Albaicín son testigos vivos de este pasado glorioso y constituyen un patrimonio invaluable que atrae a millones de visitantes de todo el mundo.

Ya cayendo la noche, bajando por el Albaicín, se aprecian las calles estrechas y de adoquines, con distintas puertas interesantes y entradas que hacen vivir la experiencia de un autóctono barrio árabe. Entre medio, el Balcón de San Nicolás, que te invita a ser parte del espectáculo que es ver la Alhambra de noche, que desde afuera son la invitación perfecta para disfrutar con café o un buen trago, esa postal que parece pintada por algún artista desconocido del 1.900.

Luego del café y con un poco de calor en el cuerpo, continúa la caminata camino al centro hasta donde vas encontrando por el camino una serie de vestigios del mundo árabe que permiten reforzar que Granada seguirá siendo centro del reino nazarí. Su arquitectura es un recuerdo vivo y un encuentro con los particulares mercados que ofrecen menaje, lámparas, zapatillas y una serie de artículos que me transportan a oriente, incluyendo centros de estudios que me instan a querer volver.

Finalmente, logro llegar al centro de Granada y como bien escribió Federico García Lorca, orgulloso Granadino; «Granada está indefensa ante la gente, porque ante los halagos, nada ni nadie tiene modo de defenderse», y esta es tan solo la primera parte de un viaje en el tiempo y espacio en la grandiosa España.

Continuará…

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Originalni tekst na antenam.net

18.12.2024 / Autor: Ana Nives Radović

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Ako ste makar djelić vremena proveli u svijetu digitalnog novca, vjerovatno ste naišli na termin HODL – uvijek napisan velikim slovima tako da na prvi pogled djeluje kao riječ sa slovnom greškom. Zapravo i jeste riječ o slovnoj grešci i to onoj koja je nastala na današnji dan prije 11 godina, a koja je uspjela ne samo da obezbijedi mjesto u istoriji svijeta novca, već i da postane naziv za jedan potpuno drugačiji pristup sredstvima koja posjedujemo.

Nespretno napisana riječ „hold“ (eng. držati, zadržati) u poruci na jednom forumu evoluirala je u akronim HODL – akronim za Hold On for Dear Life (doslovno – drži se za život, tj. drži se kao da ti život zavisi od toga), predstavlja poziv na akciju – ili, tačnije, „neakciju“ za vlasnike kriptovaluta da odole iskušenju prodaje tokom tržišnih padova. Riječ je o shvatanju da je ovaj oblik digitalne imovine bolje vremenski što duže imati u vlasništvu, kako bi se sačekao mnogo povoljniji trenutak za prodaju nego prodati ih u vremenu kada je situacija na tržištu loša.

Greška koja je postala pokret

Priča počinje 18. decembra 2013. godine, kada je cijena bitcoina tada počela da pada, a samo tokom toga dana se sa 682 na 522 dolara. Korisnik foruma pod imenom GameKyuubi objavio je sada već legendarni post pod naslovom „I AM HODLING“. Bila je to greška u kucanju, jer se na osnovu sadržaja poruke vidi da je krenuo da napiše „holding“ (držim), ali umjesto da se ispravi sebe, prigrlio je grešku, šaljivo govoreći o svom nedostatku vještina za trgovanje i zašto „bez obzira na sve“.

Bitcoin zajednica brzo je prihvatila ovaj izraz kao dio slenga. Pogrešno napisana riječ odjeknula je internet prostranstvima, a vremenom je prerasla u simbol šire filozofije – ne paniči, ne prodaj i ne dozvoli da kratkoročna nestabilnost poljulja tvoje uvjerenje. Od kasnonoćnog posta na forumu, HODL je postao poklič za vlasnike bitcoina (i drugih, u to vrijeme malobrojnih digitalnih valuta zanemarive vrijednosti) širom svijeta.

HODL-ovanje i HODL-eri

U suštini, HODL-ovanje je strategija zadržavanja kriptovaluta tokom tržišnih uspona i padova, zasnovana na uvjerenju da će cijene vremenom rasti. Umjesto impulsivnog reagovanja na tržišne fluktuacije, HODL-eri se posvećuju svojim investicijama na duže staze.

Ovaj pristup posebno je koristan za početnike, koji možda nemaju dovoljno stručnosti ili hrabrosti da se nose sa svakodnevnim trgovanjem (u čemu su često neuspješni i dugogodišnji vlasnici digitalnih novčića). Sam GameKyuubi u svom originalnom postu priznao je da samo najvještiji trgovci treba da pokušaju da „igraju igru“ tokom tržišnih padova. Za ostale, HODL-ovanje nije samo sigurnije, već je često i pametnije.

Filozofija HODL-ovanja zasnovana je na povjerenju – u budućnost kriptovaluta, u eventualni oporavak tržišta i u korist koju donosi strpljenje. To je odbijanje da se prodaje kada cijene naglo padnu – nepokolebljivo uvjerenje da su padovi privremeni i da nakon njih slijedi rast.

Zakon tržišta pokazuje da što drže HODL-ujete to se ova strategija više isplati, a cijena bitcoina u njegovoj šesnaestogodišnjoj istoriji je nesumnjivo najbolji dokaz za to. Trgovanje zahtijeva mnogo učenja, truda, vremena provedenog u praćenju svakog mogućeg signala, dok je kod HODL-ovanja važno samo da se „ne predate“.

Ako ste prethodnih godina nešto platili bitcoinom (a trgovci širom svijeta su to omogućili upravo da bi vas naveli da ih umjerite ka njima) vjerovatno ste zažalili, jer danas dok je njegova vrijednost i u dolarima i u eurima šestocifrena, ono na što ste ih potrošili ipak izgleda kao nešto što je trebalo platiti fizičkim novcem (kojeg je svakako „pojela inflacija“).

Pouzdane kriptovalute, a tu se prije svega misli na bitcoin, iako veoma volatilne bilježe trend rasta na duge staze, pa HODL-ovanje znači strpljenje u vremenu neizvjesnosti s idejom o koristi na duži rok, čak i kada su godine loše, kao što su bile 2014, 2017. i 2022. Na primjer, u periodu od 20. maja do 20. juna cijena bitcoina kliznula je sa 29.000 na 18.000 dolara, a upravo u tom trenutku mnogi su odlučili da količinu koju posjeduju prodaju ili je potroše plaćajući ovom digitalnom valutom (i pokajali se zbog toga).

HODL naspram drugih strategija

HODL-ovanje se razlikuje od aktivnijih strategija, poput kupovine po niskoj cijeni i prodaje po visokoj, jer dok trgovci pokušavaju da tempiraju tržište radi brze zarade, HODL-eri ostaju dosljedni svojoj odluci da se ne oslobađaju svoje imovine ni u najnoepovoljnijim trenucima. HODL-eri ne pokušavaju da predvide kretanje cijena – jednostavno čuvaju svoja sredstva, svjesni toga da će strpljenje na kraju donijeti rezultat.

Naravno, HODL-ovanje ima i svoje nedostatke. Za razliku od trgovaca koji mogu da povećaju svoj kapital kroz stratešku kupovinu i prodaju, HODL-eri zavise od vremena provedenog u čekanju na dugoročne rezultate. Pored toga, masovno HODL-ovanje može usporiti cirkulaciju kriptovaluta na tržištu, smanjujući ukupnu ekonomsku aktivnost – drugim riječima, kada bismo svi bili HODL-eri odnos ponude i tražnje bi bio veoma destimulišući i to bi oborilo cijenu.

Na sreću, trgovaca ima mnogo – dovoljno da tržište stalno bude aktivno i dinamično, no za one koji nemaju vremena, vještine ili sklonost ka riziku koji nosi trgovanje, HODL-ovanje ostaje jednostavan, ali veoma efikasan pristup.

Filozofija HODL-ovanja

HODL-ovanje je više od investicione strategije – to je način razmišljanja koji obuhvata otpornost, strpljenje i vjerovanje da su kratkotrajno suzdržavanje i nepokolebljivost u odluci da se sredstva sačuvaju vrijedna dugoročnog dobitka. Bilo da cijena bitcoina raste ili pada je, filozofija HODL-ovanja ostaje ista – ostanimo dosljedni, vjerujmo procesu i gledajmo u budućnost.

Jedan od ključnih razloga zašto većini ljudi ovakav pristup dugo nije bio razumljiv je zbog toga što su čitav sistem novca prihvatili u uvjerenju da on vremenom devalvira. Vjerovatno ste makar jednom razmatrali ponudu oročene štednje i procijenili da vam količina novca koju želite da položite neće donijeti onaj prinos koji će očuvati njegovu kupovnu moć nakon određenog broja godina, jer je kontinuirano doštampavanje novca podupiralo tu tvrdnju.

Dakle, ne treba da vas zavara sve ono što znate o novcu kao takvom, budući da bitcoin (na kojem je u ovom serijalu poseban fokus, jer mnoge druge kriptovalute ipak češće razočaraju nego što oduševe) nije novac, već samo ima neka svojstva novca. Posmatrajte ga radije kao imovinu – npr. kao nekretninu za koju sigurno želite da prodate onda kada je situacija stabilnija i kada su mnogo veće šanse da pronađete kupca kojem ćete je prodati po višoj cijeni.

U svakom slučaju, ako se u vašem digitalnom novčaniku već nalazi poneki satoshi (stomilioniti djelić bitcoina), kada tržište ponovo uđe u nepovoljnu fazu i zavlada prolazna panika, sjetite se onoga što je napisao GameKyuubi. HODL nije samo izraz – to je način da se prebrode oluje i izazovi koje nestabilno tržište nosi.

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Originalni tekst na linkedin.com

07.12.2016 / Autor: Aleksandar Matanović

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Kažu da su svi generali pametni posle bitke. Međutim, pošto sam se i pre „bitke“ pokazao kao dobar general (moj intervju u članku objavljenom 2 meseca pre „bitke“), daću sebi za pravo da pokušam da objasnim šta se desilo i zašto se desilo. Koga mrzi da čita članak, evo ukratko o čemu se radilo: Početkom maja sam bio zamoljen da prokomentarišem kako će prepolovljavanje nagrade za rudare u julu uticati na cenu bitkoina. Rekao sam tada da mislim da će cena do prepolovljavanja (između tačke „A“ i tačke „B“ na grafikonu) rasti, da će posle prepolovljavanja (od tačke „B“ pa na dalje) kratkoročno cena pasti, pa da će nakon toga dugoročno rasti. Upravo tako nešto se i desilo. Ipak, moram da naglasim da cena bitkoina zavisi od mnogih faktora i zaista je teško izolovati uticaj nekog pojedinačnog faktora na cenu, tako da se svaka ovakva analiza mora uzeti sa dosta rezerve.

Ovog jula desilo se nešto što se dešava jednom u 4 godine... a nisu Olimpijske igre ili 29-ti februar. Nagrada za bitkoin rudare se prepolovila i sada iznosi 12.5 bitkoina po bloku (uz to naravno ide i zbir provizija svih transakcija u bloku, ali taj iznos je i dalje bitno manji od 12.5 btc). Mnogi su mislili da će taj događaj vinuti cenu bitkoina u nebesa, verovatno i zbog toga što je nakon prethodnog prepolovljavanja nagrade krenuo rast koji je za manje od godinu dana rezultirao u povećanju cene od preko 10.000%. Ipak, prepolovljanje nagrade nije, barem kratkoročno, donelo očekivani skok cene. Objašnjenje za to se može tražiti u Hipotezi Efikasnog Tržišta.

Hipoteza Efikasnog Tržišta (HET), u svom jačem obliku, tvrdi da se sve javno dostupne informacije o nečemu (u ovom slučaju – o bitkoinu) već ogledaju u ceni tog nečega. Zbog toga, analizom tih javno dostupnih informacija nije moguće „pobediti“ tržište. Možemo diskutovati o tome koliko je tržište bitkoina efikasno i u kojoj meri je ova hipoteza na njega primenjiva, kao i tome koliko je i sama HET valjana, ali meni je početkom maja baš ta hipoteza pomogla da predvidim kretanje cene pre i posle prepolovljavanja.

Da bi cena nečega rasla, mora da postoji povećan broj onih koji to žele da kupe u odnosu na broj onih koji to žele da prodaju. Hajde da na trenutak zamislimo da se prepolovljavanje nagrade dogodilo potpuno neočekivano, to jest da niko nije znao da će se dogoditi. Špekulanti bi brzo shvatili da će se zbog smanjenog tempa generisanja novih bitkoina verovatno poremetiti odnos ponude i potražnje (u korist potražnje) i krenuli bi da kupuju nadajući se da će kasnije prodati po većoj ceni. Nesumljivo, to bi dovelo do rasta cene bitkoina, verovatno naglog.

Međutim, pošto se za prepolovljavanje unapred znalo da će se dogoditi i kada će se dogoditi, po HET ta, javno dostupna, informacija se već reflektovala na cenu pre prepolovljavanja. Prostim jezikom rečeno, pošto su ljudi očekivali rast cene posle prepolovljavanja, oni su mesecima unapred kupovali bitkoine, nadajući se da će da profitiraju posle rasta. Sva ta silna kupovina pred prepolovljavanje je povećela potražnju pa samim tim i cenu bitkoina. Ali, baš zato što su svi pokupovali bitkoine pred prepolovljavanje, kad se prepolovljavanje dogodilo – više nije imao ko da kupuje. A cena ne može da raste dalje ako nema dovoljno potražnje da tu cenu gura na gore. Baš zbog te smanjene potražnje, cena bitkoina je mesecima posle prepolovljavanja stagnirala, čak je imala i jedan ozbiljan pad, zbog BitFinex-a.

Dugoročno, naravno da je logično da prepolovljavanje nagrade ipak donese rast cene. Najpre, tempo generisanja novih bitkoina se smanjuje, a ako potražnja nastavi da raste sličnom brzinom kao i ranije, cena mora da raste. Takođe, prepolovljavanje nagrade je prepolovilo profit rudarima, koji će sada želeti da prodaju bitkoine po višoj ceni da bi zadržali sličan nivo prihoda kao ranije. Videćemo da li je jesenji rast cene upravo početak tog dugoročnog trenda rasta koji sam u članku prognozirao ili samo privremena stvar. Ipak, tu je još dosta drugih faktora, pre svih pitanje kako će bitkoin zajednica odgovoriti na problem skaliranja - što će biti jedna od narednih tema.

Napomena: Ova analiza predstavlja moje lično viđenje situacije. Nisam ekspert za analizu kretanja cene, tako da ovde navedene informacije ne treba uzimati kao relevantne pri eventualnim odlukama o kupovini ili prodaji kriptovaluta.

@ b2caa9b3:9eab0fb5

The year had barely begun when we, a group of four from the hostel, decided to explore Moshi's Uhuru Park. Located conveniently in the city center, it was just a short walk away, making it an easy and inviting destination.

A Stroll Through Uhuru Park

We entered through the main gate and began to wander around the park. The first area we encountered was small buildings with stores, restaurants, and a cozy beer garden. After some browsing, we ventured further into the heart of the park and stumbled upon a playground. It was a bit run-down — a place I wouldn’t let my kids play, especially not on the slide — but that didn’t stop us. As adults, we unleashed our inner children, playing on the equipment and snapping countless photos.

In the middle of our playground adventure, we spotted a tree with a ladder and a sign requesting payment to use the playground. Surprisingly, they accepted Mastercard and Visa! Yet, given the state of the equipment, I couldn’t imagine parents willingly paying for such a risky setup.

Unexpected Sights and Big Discoveries

As we moved on, the park began to reveal its quirky charm. We admired creatively maintained corners and came across a unique “Christmas tree”. Unlike traditional evergreens, this local tree earned its festive name because it only blooms during the holiday season. Nearby, we marveled at massive termite hills — some taller than me — that left me feeling small. While I was curious, I didn’t dig around to confirm if any termites were home.

A Smoothie Haven: The Wishing Tree

We eventually reached a cluster of houses within the park. One spot stood out to me — The Wishing Tree. I’d discovered it one evening during a failed attempt to attend a BBQ festival when the police turned me away. The Wishing Tree seemed like an oasis, but it was closed at night, so I promised myself I’d return.

That day, I kept my promise. The Wishing Tree lived up to its name, offering a serene, green space with soft music perfect for meditation. The smoothies were freshly made, organic, and worth the wait. With my first sip, I was blown away — absolutely delicious, even if a bit pricey. We lingered there, savoring every moment and every drop.

Chipsiei and Colonial Echoes

After leaving the oasis, we wandered back to the beer garden. One of my companions, a man from Switzerland, ordered Chipsiei. It’s a local dish of fries and eggs, with “Ei” (the German word for egg) being a linguistic remnant of Tanzania’s time as German East Africa. Traces of this colonial past still linger in buildings, language, and even some food traditions.

I opted for a beer with lemon, similar to a Radler, while others chose soda or beer. After finishing our drinks, we continued our walk, eventually passing the bus station. Here, the Swiss traveler bought a ticket for his next destination, though not without encountering the infamous “mzungu price” — a common overcharge for foreigners. Despite having the correct price from the internet, he couldn’t negotiate it down.

A Market Adventure

Back at the hostel, I decided to visit the market, and the Swiss man joined me. I needed bananas, while he sought natural baobab fruit. Unlike the colored and sugary versions sold on the street, market baobab is organic and white. It was the perfect place to find fresh, unaltered produce.

Wrapping Up the Day

After the market, we returned to the hostel to relax at the bar, reflecting on our day. While writing this, I realized I captured so many interesting photos. I’ll share a few here and save the rest for my upcoming online gallery — stay tuned for updates!

Moving On

Tomorrow, I’ll check out and continue my journey through Africa. After nearly two months in Moshi, my foot has healed, and it’s time to move forward. Along the way, I’ll need to replace my GoPro battery (the old one blew up) and get a power bank after my Google Pixel met its end with a faulty one. I also need to pick up a hat to protect myself from the increasingly harsh sun and maybe a sheet to use as a multi sheet (Towel, Beach Towel and other things).

The road ahead promises new adventures, stories, and photos. Stay tuned to follow my travels as I explore more of this beautiful continent!

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Originalni tekst na ecd.rs

29.04.2020. / Autor: Aleksandar Matanović

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U poslednjih par meseci smo naučili da mnoge stvari koje deluju sigurno i nepromenljivo zapravo ne moraju da budu takve. Ove godine nećemo gledati tenis na Vimbldonu, a olimpijske igre su odložene za sledeću godinu. Ipak, i u ovim ludim vremenima postoje stvari za koje možemo biti sigurni da će se dogoditi tačno kada su bile i planirane. Jedna od njih je prepolovljavanje nagrade za rudare bitkoina, poznatije kao „bitcoin halving“ u ovom slučaju u doba korone.

Za one kojima je ova tematika nova, samo par rečenica o halving-u. „Rudari“ su ljudi koji svoj hardver koriste za održavanje bitkoin mreže. Za svaki novi blok transakcija koji se doda u blokčejn, neko od rudara dobije 12.5 BTC, a to se deševa otprilike na svakih 10 minuta. Nakon prepolovljavanja nagrade, rudari će dobijati 6.25 BTC po bloku.

„Bitcoin halving“ je planiran za 11.05., možda bude dan-dva pre ili kasnije, ali neće odstupiti više od toga. To je inače nešto što je predviđeno da se dešava na svake 4 godine, ali se zbog skoro neprekidnog rasta procesorske snage rudara do sada dešavalo u intervalima koji su nešto kraći od 4 godine (prethodno prepolovljavanje nagrade se desilo u julu 2016.).

Pre 4 godine sam pisao na ovu temu kada sam od strane Cointelegraph-a bio zamoljen da prognoziram uticaj halvinga na cenu. Par meseci kasnije sam napisao i članak u kojem sam objasnio kako sam uspeo da pogodim kretanje cene.

Da nema korone, moja prognoza se u principu ne bi razlikovala od prognoze koju sam dao pre 4 godine. Sa koronom, pokazalo se da je teško bilo šta prognozirati. Često sam govorio da bi bitkoin eksplodirao (u pozitivnom smislu) da je postojao 2008. godine tokom ekonomske krize. I dalje to mislim. Međutim, kriza sa kojom se sad suočavamo nije ista kao ona od pre 12 godina. Tada smo imali krah finansijskog sistema koji je ozbiljno uzdrmao čak i najveće svetske banke, samim tim i poverenje u bankarski sistem. Alternativa u vidu kriptovaluta bi u tim okolnostima mnogima bila vrlo zanimljiva. Ipak, sada nemamo krizu finansijskog sistema, barem ne još uvek. Iako mnogi prognoziraju da nas čeka kriza koja će biti ozbiljnija od one iz 2008. godine, mislim da malo ko razmišlja o dugoročnim posledicama u ovom trenutku i o tome koje investicije će dugoročno biti najisplativije.

Dugoročno planiranje je u ovim okolnostima luksuz koji retko ko može sebi da priušti. U situciji kad su ljudi zabrinuti za svoj život i život svojih bližnjih, kad su ostali bez posla ili se plaše da mogu ostati (ili se plaše da li će im biznis preživeti, ako su vlasnici biznisa), verovatno da retko ko razmišlja o tome da li je pametnije investirati u zlato ili digitalno zlato (kako mnogi nazivaju bitkoin) i šta će za 5 ili 10 godina doneti veći profit.

Zbog činjenice da je ceo svet zaokupljen virusom, mislim da će prepolovljavanje nagrade za rudare proći relativno neopaženo, pogotovo u mejnstrim medijima. Od početka krize, cena kriptovaluta se kretala slično kao i indeksi na svetskim berzama, što je čudno, barem gledajući istoriju… mada, u svojoj relativno kratkoj istoriji bitkoin se još nije susreo sa koronom, niti bilo čime sličnim. Kratkoročno, mislim da će na cenu bitkoina mnogo više uticati talasi osećaja panike i optimizma koji će se na globalnom nivou smenjivati kao posledica daljih dešavanja vezano za koronu, nego prepolovljavanje nagrade za rudare ili bilo šta drugo što se dešava unutar same kripto industrije. Zbog toga, ne bih se usudio da dam bilo kakvu procenu kad je u pitanju kratkoročno kretanje cene bitkoina.

Dugoročno gledano, ja sam već oko 8 godina optimista (uz par kratkotrajnih kriza) kad je bitkoin u pitanju i to korona neće promeniti. Kao što sve pandemije prolaze, proći će i korona, pa će svet morati da se suoči sa dugoročnim posledicama svojih kratkoročnih odluka koje su donete i koje će biti donete tokom narednih meseci. Ovde ni na koji način ne želim da te odluke dovodim u pitanje, jer u ovakvim situacijama ne postoje dobra rešenja, samo manje ili više loša. I samo vreme može da pokaže koja su bila kakva. Ipak, koliko god neke odluke bile opravdane ili iznuđene, one će imati posledice.

Ekonomija je stala i mnoge države su već najavile ozbiljno doštampavanje novca kako bi ponovo pokrenule privredu. Imajući u vidu da su i pre tog doštampavanja, države mahom bile ozbiljno zadužene, postavlja se pitanje koliko dodatnog zaduživanja može da se podnese. Ovo će biti ozbiljan izazov čak i za najjače svetske ekomije, a posebno za one slabije. Iznenadilo bi me da ova kriza ne prouzrokuje ozbiljne nivoe inflacije i devalvacije valuta, pa čak i potpuni bankrot u nekim od zemalja u razvoju. Nikako ne isključujem mogućnost da se tako nešto desi i u nekoj od razvijenih zemalja. Valuta koja se ne može nekontrolisano doštampavati i time obezvređivati može biti vrlo simpatična alternativa u tim okolnostima.

@ bf47c19e:c3d2573b

Časopis studenata Ekonomskog fakulteta - "Monopolist", oktobar 2013. / Autor: Nikola Nikitović

Da li ćemo, uz pomoć interneta, uspeti da zaobiđemo banke u procesu novčanih transakcija i tako učinimo sebe bogatijim?

Slobodno tržište tera svakog učesnika da popravi performanse svog proizvoda ili usluge, smanji troškove, eliminiše nepotrebne aktivnosti i sve to u cilju profi ta. Zato ne čudi što zbog pojave savremenih tehnologija mnoga zanimanja nestaju. Tako danas skoro da više i nemamo daktilografe, limare, časovničare i slično. Međutim, delatnost koja je izložena konkurenciji, ali vekovima opstaje i tradicionalno pravi velike profi te je bankarstvo. Iste godine kad je svet zahvatila svetska ekonomska kriza, te čuvene 2008, osoba ili grupa ljudi pod pseudonimom „Satoši Nakamoto” izbacuje „bitkoin protokol”. Idejni tvorac bitkoina izabrao je da ostane anoniman, što je otvorilo prostor za istražitelje koji su pokušali da otkriju identitet Satoši Nakamota. Izneti su i dokazi koji povezuju troje ljudi sa identitetom Nakamota, ali ništa više od onoga što obični demanti ne mogu osporiti.

ŠTA JE, U STVARI, „BITKOIN”?

Jedna od ideja tvoraca bitkoina je da se dizajnira nova ekonomija u kojoj digitalni domen ima primarnu ulogu. Bitkoin je prva decentralizovana digitalna valuta. Za razliku od evra, dolara, dinara ili bilo koje druge valute, bitkoinom ne upravlja nijedna institucija - ni centralna banka, ni vlada, niti bilo ko drugi. To su digitalni novčići koji se mogu slati putem interneta. Šaljemo ih neposredno, dakle, bez učešća banaka, što znači da su troškovi slanja, ako ne nulti, onda svakako manji nego do sada. Geografski faktori ne predstavljaju ograničenje, pa, na kojoj god lokaciji da se nalazimo, moći ćemo da primamo ili šaljemo ovaj digitalni novac. Takođe, jedna od važnih osobina bitkoina je ta da nam račun ni u jednom trenutku ne može biti zamrznut.

Urednik „Bitkoin magazina” kaže da je bitkoin upravo ono što bi novac trebalo da bude. Ove transakcije ne liče na klasične novčane transakcije. Kako njima ne upravlja centralna banka, infl acija nije moguća, što u slučaju Srbije, zemlje s tradicionalno visokom infl acijom i drugom najvećom hiperinfl acijom, dosta znači. Bitkoini se generišu u procesu zvanom „mining”. Kompjuter nam zadaje kompleksan matematički problem, a cilj je šezdesetčetvorocifreni broj. Ukoliko kompjuter uspešno reši ovaj algoritam, postajemo vlasnici pedeset bitkoina. Mreža je programirana tako da povećava ponudu novca prema predodređenom rasporedu sve dok ukupan broj bitkoina ne dostigne 21 milion. Trenutno se u proseku izbacuje oko dvadeset pet novčića na svakih deset minuta. Ovaj broj biće prepolovljen do 2017, i tako svake četiri godine dok ne dostigne limit. Novembra 2012. kreirana je polovina ukupne ponude bitkoina od 21 milion, a oko 2140. bi trebalo i cela ponuda.

Vrednost bitkoina u odnosu na dolar rapidno se uvećava - od svega trideset centi januara 2011. do 125 dolara marta 2013. Iz tog razloga ljudi koriste bitkoin radije kao investiciju, nego kao sredstvo plaćanja.

Mt.Gox je najveća svetska bitkoin berza (eng. exchange) gde ljudi mogu da trguju bitkoinima bilo s kim u svetu, mogu da ih kupuju lokalnom valutom, a mogu čak i da ih skladište. Ipak, ni ovo nije bez rizika: hakeri mogu da upadnu u sistem i da ga ozbiljno ugroze. Bitkoin je, takođe, poznat po tome što je moguće, uz određeni softver, kupovati nelegalne proizvode poput droge, što skeptici vide kao negativnu stranu ove valute. Ali, ako znamo da nož može da ubije čoveka, ali i da iseče hleb, da li to onda znači da treba da zabranimo proizvodnju noževa?

Najveći interes za novu digitalnu valutu pokazuju zemlje koje nemaju tako jak bankarski sektor kao Kina, Rusija, zemlje Latinske Amerike i Afrika. Postoje dva aspekta bitkoina koja izazivaju sumnju u naše razumevanje novca: on je istovremeno i valuta i način plaćanja (nešto kao „pejpal” sa svojom valutom). Svakako da se vladama i ostalim regulatornim telima ovaj koncept ne sviđa. Oni vole kad akademci razmišljaju o monetarnoj politici, pišu radove i predaju svoje ideje nadležnima, koji ih prihvate ili odbace. Satoši Nakamoto, tvorac bitkoina, nije tako razmišljao: on je napravio valutu i pustio je u upotrebu, pa ko hoće, može da je koristi. Ovo je prvi put u istoriji da jedan čovek može da šalje i prima novac bez učešća ijedne druge osobe, bilo gde na planeti. Nije bitno da li ima bankovni račun, nije bitno da li ima kreditne kartice, ako ima kompjuter i pristup internetu, može da šalje novac odakle god želi i niko ga ne može sprečiti u tome. Neki idu i toliko daleko da kažu da je ovo i najveći izum posle interneta. Ako je tako, to znači da će tražnja rasti, a kako je ponuda predvidiva i ograničena, znači da će i cena da raste. Ako je zaista tako, hajdemo onda svi po bitkoine.

@ 6bae33c8:607272e8

It was a so-so year for me. I won one Beat Chris Liss league, didn’t cash in the other two or the Primetime. I got bounced in the first round of the Steak League playoffs and finished as a self buyer. I didn’t make the Dynasty League playoffs (even though I had the fourth most points and would have won the league based on my scores in the playoffs), and I didn’t do anything in Survivor or Circa Millions. It certainly could have been better.

Had I known in August what I know now, here’s what I would have done:

1.12 Saquon Barkley — This is chalk here, but I love older running backs this year, and Saquon should go off on the Eagles. No, I’m not worried that Jalen Hurts might score 14 rushing TDs in 15 games.

2.1 Jahmyr Gibbs — Also chalk, but I want to build a RB-heavy foundation with all these zero-RB midwits. You love your Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle build? Sidebet?

3.1 Derrick Henry — Whew, glad he fell to me. I love starting out with three straight RBs, so nutless monkeys can criticize my poor draft structure!

4.12 Josh Allen — I like to get a stud QB early, you guys can wait on Kirk Cousins and Caleb Williams if you want.

5.1 Lamar Jackson — I know it’s early to double up, but I don’t want anyone snagging this value from me. Always punish the room even if it costs you! Sidebets anyone?

6.12 Brian Thomas — Receiver is definitely a position you can piece together if you know what you’re doing, and with Thomas I have an every week starter no matter how bad the quarterback play in Jacksonville.

7.1 Courtland Sutton — I want to buy into the Sean Payton Denver passing game. Russell Wilson, not Payton, was the problem, and Bo Nix is a stud.

8.12 Jordan Addison — I expect Sam Darnold to unlock Addison this year.

9.1 Brock Bowers — He’s no Kyle Pitts (who you took in Round 6), that’s for sure.

10.12 Rashid Shaheed — He’s liable to get hurt, but I need some early-season WR production from someone, and he’s better than Chris Olave.

11.1 Bucky Irving — I’m too thin at RB, needed some depth.

12.12 Jalen McMillan — In case I need some WR depth for the stretch run.

13.1 Adam Thielen — If a white receiver is still in the league at 34, he must be doing something right!

14.12 Cowboys Kicker — Always be the first to take the obvious stud kicker.

15.1 Broncos Defense — beasts.

16.12 Vikings Defense — beasts.

17.1 Steelers Kicker — Always draft a second stud kicker to back up your first one.

18.12 Zach Ertz — Need some TE depth, and Ertz could be useful in my Week 17 title game.

19.1 Jonnu Smith — You can never have too much TE depth. Controversial take: Smith will outproduce Waddle and Hill this year.

20.12 Sam Darnold — Who knows? He could be useful in the playoffs.

This obviously isn’t the ideal team, but it would win every league and generate plenty of action in side bets too.

And here’s some September 3-5 ADP to show this build was possible:

@ d830ee7b:4e61cd62

จุดเริ่มต้นของสงครามบล็อกไซส์

ลองนึกภาพร้านอาหารเล็ก ๆ ที่มีแค่สิบโต๊ะ แต่ลูกค้ากลับล้นหลามจนพนักงานวิ่งวุ่นตลอดวัน เราอาจเห็นภาพชัดว่าปัญหาต้องตามมาแน่ ๆ ถ้าจำนวนโต๊ะไม่พอกับลูกค้าที่ต่อแถวกันยาวเหยียด

บางคนหัวเสียจนยอมจ่ายเงินเพิ่มเพื่อรีบได้โต๊ะนั่ง ในขณะที่อีกหลายคนก็ยืนรอจนหมดอารมณ์กิน สุดท้ายก็ต้องถามกันว่า

“จะทำยังไงดี ถึงจะไม่เสียเอกลักษณ์ร้าน และไม่ปล่อยให้ลูกค้าต้องหงุดหงิดมากมายขนาดนี้?”

บรรยากาศตรงนี้เปรียบได้กับสภาพของบิตคอยน์ช่วงราวปี 2015 ซึ่งเดิมทีเคยรองรับธุรกรรมได้สบาย ๆ แต่จู่ ๆ ก็ต้องแบกรับภาระธุรกรรมมหาศาลจน “คิวยาวเป็นหางว่าว”

ทั้งหมดนี้มาจากข้อกำหนดตั้งต้นว่า แต่ละบล็อกมีขนาดเพียง 1 เมกะไบต์ และบล็อกจะถูกสร้างทุก ๆ ประมาณ 10 นาที ทีนี้พอผู้ใช้หลั่งไหลเข้ามาไม่หยุด พื้นที่เล็ก ๆ ที่ว่าเลยเอาไม่อยู่ ใครอยากให้ธุรกรรมติดบล็อกก่อนก็ควักกระเป๋าจ่ายค่าธรรมเนียมเพิ่ม ถ้าไม่จ่าย ธุรกรรมอาจรอข้ามวันข้ามคืน แถมยังเสี่ยงค้างเติ่งไปเลย

ความไม่พอใจจึงปะทุขึ้นเป็นเสียงดังลั่นว่า

“แก้ปัญหานี้ยังไงดี จะขยายบล็อกกันเลยไหม หรือปรับซอฟต์แวร์ให้ฉลาดขึ้นโดยไม่เพิ่มขนาดจริง ๆ?”

เมื่อสองแนวคิดนี้ตั้งฉากกัน คนในแวดวงบิตคอยน์จึงแตกเป็นสองฝั่งหลัก ๆ

ฝั่งแรกเสนอ “เพิ่ม Blocksize” โดยบอกว่าต้องแก้ให้จบตรงจุด เหมือนเพิ่มโต๊ะเข้าไปในร้าน จะได้รองรับลูกค้าได้มากขึ้น เพราะเชื่อว่า Bitcoin ต้องพร้อมสำหรับการใช้งานทั่วโลก การขยายจาก 1 MB เป็น 2 MB หรือ 4 MB หรือมากกว่านั้น จึงตอบโจทย์ผู้ใช้หลากหลายตั้งแต่รายเล็กไปจนถึงธุรกิจใหญ่

แกนนำฝ่ายนี้คือ Roger Ver หรือ “Bitcoin Jesus” ที่ผลักดันแนวคิดนี้สุดตัวร่วมกับทีมขุดอย่าง Bitmain ซึ่งไม่อยากเห็นใครต้องยืนรอนานหรือจ่ายแพงเวอร์

อีกฝ่ายคือทีมพัฒนา “Bitcoin Core” ที่มี Greg Maxwell และ Peter Wuille เป็นหัวขบวน พวกเขายืนยันว่าถ้ายิ่งเพิ่มขนาดบล็อกให้ใหญ่โต ก็จะยิ่งเก็บข้อมูลมากจนโหนดรายเล็ก ๆ ต้องใช้ทรัพยากรสูงขึ้น สุดท้ายอาจเหลือแค่รายใหญ่ที่รันโหนดไหว แล้ว Decentralization ก็จะถูกบั่นทอน

ฝ่ายบิตคอยน์คอร์จึงเสนอทางแก้แบบ Segregated Witness (SegWit) ซึ่งเปรียบได้กับการจัดโต๊ะใหม่ให้แยบยล—ย้ายข้อมูลลายเซ็นธุรกรรมไปไว้นอกบล็อกหลัก ทำให้ในบล็อกมีพื้นที่ใส่ธุรกรรมได้อีกเยอะขึ้นโดยไม่ต้องทุบผนังขยายร้าน

ความขัดแย้งไม่ได้จำกัดอยู่ในเว็บบอร์ดหรือฟอรัม แต่ลุกลามไปจนถึงเวทีระดับโลกอย่าง Consensus Conference ปี 2016 และ 2017 ฝ่ายหนุนเพิ่มขนาดบล็อกก็โหวกเหวกว่า “นี่แหละถูกจุดที่สุด”

ส่วนทีมบิตคอยน์คอร์ก็โต้กลับว่า “ขืนบล็อกใหญ่ไป ระบบก็เสี่ยงรวมศูนย์ เพราะใครจะมีทุนซื้ออุปกรณ์แพง ๆ และเน็ตแรง ๆ ตลอด” จึงไม่ใช่แค่ถกเถียงทางเทคนิค แต่สะท้อนมุมมองปรัชญาด้วยว่าบิตคอยน์ควรเป็นระบบ “กระจาย” หรือ “รวมศูนย์” กันแน่

ยิ่งถกก็ยิ่งมองไม่เห็นทางออก.. บ้างก็เสนอให้ Fork แยกเครือข่ายไปเลย เหมือนเปิดสาขาร้านใหม่ ใครไม่โอเคแนวไหนก็ไปอีกสาขาหนึ่ง

Roger Ver กับสายขุดยักษ์ใหญ่ก็บอกว่าถ้าไม่เพิ่ม Blocksize ต่อไปค่าธรรมเนียมสูง และคนจะเข้าถึงยากขึ้น เหมือนร้านที่โต๊ะแน่นจนคนล้น

ฝั่งบิตคอยน์คอร์ย้ำว่าจะพัฒนา SegWit กับ Lightning Network เพื่อขนธุรกรรมส่วนใหญ่ไปทำงานนอกบล็อกหลัก แม้อาจต้องรอให้เทคโนโลยีสุกงอม แต่คงไม่กระทบโหนดรายเล็กมากนัก

ในโลกออนไลน์ สงครามโซเชียลก็เริ่มเดือด ตั้งกระทู้กันทุกวัน บางคนต่อว่านักขุดว่าเอากำไรเป็นหลัก บ้างบอกทีมบิตคอยน์คอร์ไม่เข้าใจปัญหาฝั่งธุรกิจจนชาวเน็ตแบ่งเป็นหลายค่าย คำถามใหญ่จึงดังขึ้น

“ตกลงบิตคอยน์จะเป็น ‘อาวุธทางการเงิน’ ของคนหมู่มากได้จริงเหรอ ถ้าไม่มีพื้นที่ในบล็อกมากพอ?”

หรือ..

“ถ้าผลุนผลันขยายบล็อกไปเรื่อย ๆ จนเหลือแต่รายใหญ่ที่รันโหนดได้ แบบนั้นยังถือว่าเป็น บิตคอยน์ในอุดมการณ์ของ Satoshi Nakamoto ไหม?”

พอหลายฝ่ายพยายามประนีประนอมกันหลายเวที สุดท้ายก็ไม่ประสบผล Roger Ver มั่นใจว่าต้องเพิ่ม Blocksize เท่านั้นจึงพาบิตคอยน์รอด

ส่วนทีม Core ไม่ยอมเปิดทางง่าย ๆ เพราะกลัวระบบเสียหลักการกระจายอำนาจไป

ด้วยเหตุผลทั้งคู่จึงทำให้สงครามนี้ยืดเยื้อ กลุ่มขุดและพัฒนาในแวดวงเริ่มจับตากันเครียด บ้างเสนอทางผสม เช่น เพิ่ม Blocksize นิดหน่อย แล้วเปิด SegWit ควบคู่ บ้างเสนอว่าให้เลื่อนตัดสินใจออกไปก่อนก็ยังดี

ไม่มีใครรู้ว่าจะลงเอยอย่างไร.. และหากเรื่องนี้พลั้งพลาดบิตคอยน์อาจแตกเป็นสองสายจนผู้ใช้หรือนักลงทุนสับสน

สถานการณ์ช่วงแรกเหมือน “ไฟที่กำลังคุ” เพราะยังไม่ปะทุเต็มที่แต่ก็แรงพอจะยกครัวไปตลอดทั้งวงการ คนพัฒนาก็ทำ SegWit และ Lightning Network ไป ฝ่ายหนุน Blocksize ก็เดินสายผลักดันให้เต็มที่ ถึงขั้นยอมเสี่ยง Fork ถ้าจำเป็นจริง ๆ

นี่แหละคือจุดเริ่มต้นของความตึงเครียดที่ไม่ใช่แค่ “ขนาดบล็อก” แต่หมายถึงอนาคตของบิตคอยน์ที่อาจพลิกโฉมไปตลอดกาล..

คิดง่าย ๆ ก็เหมือนร้านอาหารเล็ก ๆ ที่กำลังจะก้าวสู่ภัตตาคารใหญ่ระดับท็อป เมื่อแขกเหรื่อมาไม่หยุดหย่อน แน่นอนว่าเสียงเรียกร้องให้ทุบกำแพงขยายร้านย่อมมีบ้าง แต่บางคนอาจบอก “เปลี่ยนวิธีจัดโต๊ะแทนได้ไหม?” ทุกแนวทางต่างมีทั้งโอกาสและความเสี่ยง

ที่สำคัญคือ บิตคอยน์เป็นสินทรัพย์อันดับหนึ่งของโลกคริปโตฯ หากก้าวพลาดเพียงเล็กน้อย อาจสะเทือนไปทั่วโลกด้วย

เนื้อหาถัดไปผมจะชวนมาดูว่า ใครกันแน่ที่อยู่เบื้องหลังการขับเคลื่อนสงคราม Blocksize ครั้งนี้?

พวกเขามีแรงจูงใจอะไรกันบ้าง? และจะนำพาบิตคอยน์ไปในทิศทางใด?

ขอทิ้งท้ายส่วนนี้ให้คิดเล่น ๆ

“ถ้าเพิ่ม Blocksize สุด ๆ แต่โหนดรายเล็กหายหมด สุดท้ายยังเรียกว่ากระจายอำนาจอยู่ไหม?”

“หรือจะรักษาบล็อกขนาดเล็กไว้อย่างเดิม แล้วปรับเทคโนโลยีเสริมให้ฉลาดขึ้นดีกว่า?”

ทั้งหมดที่เล่ามายังเป็นแค่บทโหมโรงนะครับ สงครามนี้เพิ่งปะทุเท่านั้น ยังมีอะไรเข้มข้นอีกมาก ติดตามต่อว่าฝั่งไหนจะงัดไม้เด็ดอะไรออกมาเพื่อรักษา “ร้านอาหาร” แห่งนี้ให้เดินหน้าต่อไปได้โดยไม่เสียตัวตน..

ใครคือผู้ขับเคลื่อนสงคราม Blocksize?

พาร์ทที่แล้ว เราได้เห็นภาพรวมของปัญหาที่ดูเหมือนจะเล็กนิดเดียวอย่าง “บล็อกใหญ่หรือเล็ก?” แต่กลับแผ่ขยายจนกลายเป็นมหากาพย์ความขัดแย้งในชุมชนบิตคอยน์ เสมือนเดิมพันอนาคตของสกุลเงินดิจิทัลอันดับหนึ่งบนโลกใบนี้

พอตอนนี้ถึงเวลาแล้วที่เราจะก้าวลึกลงไปในเบื้องหลังของสงครามอันร้อนแรงนี้ ใครอยู่ในเงามืด? ใครลากสายอยู่หลังเวที? และใครโดดขึ้นมาเดินลุยบนสนามเปิดเพื่อต่อสู้แย่งชิงฉันทามติของเครือข่าย?

มีคนชอบเปรียบเทียบว่าศึก Blocksize ครั้งนี้คือ “สนามรบดิจิทัล” ซึ่งไม่ได้ยิงกระสุนห้ำหั่นแต่ใช้โค้ดแทน ขับเคลื่อนด้วย “Hashrate” ที่เปรียบเสมือนอาวุธหนัก ฝ่ายไหนถือกำลังขุดสูงกว่าก็เหมือนมีกองทัพเบิ้ม ๆ อยู่ในมือ

ด้านนักพัฒนาและผู้ใช้ทั่วไปก็คล้ายประชากรพลเรือนที่บางทีก็ต้องยอมรับชะตา แต่บางทีก็รวมตัวประท้วงสร้างพลังของตัวเองให้โลกได้เห็น ทุกฝีก้าวมีคนจ้องดูว่าจะเกิด “Hard Fork” หรือ “Soft Fork” เมื่อไหร่ และกฎใดจะถูกประกาศเป็น “กฎใหม่” ให้ทุกคนต้องปฏิบัติตาม

ในมุมของคนอยาก “เพิ่ม Blocksize” เห็นชื่อของ Roger Ver โผล่โดดเด่นสุด ๆ เขาคือ “Bitcoin Jesus” แห่งยุคบุกเบิก ที่ครั้งหนึ่งทุ่มทุนโปรโมตบิตคอยน์แบบไม่กลัวเจ๊ง ด้วยความเชื่อว่าบิตคอยน์ควรเป็น “เงินสดดิจิทัล” ลื่นไหลจ่ายคล่อง สลัดค่าธรรมเนียมแพง ๆ ทิ้งไปให้หมด

ในสายตาเขา การคงบล็อกเล็กแค่ 1 MB ยิ่งทำให้คนใช้แล้วปวดหัว ค่าธรรมเนียมสูงปรี๊ด ธุรกรรมอืดอาดเกินจะทน เลยต้องขยายขนาดบล็อกแบบจัดเต็ม เหมือนขยายถนนให้รถวิ่งง่าย ไม่งั้นก็ต้องมุดเข้าอุโมงค์แคบ ๆ จอดติดกันยาว

และ “Bitmain” บริษัทเครื่องขุดเบอร์ใหญ่สุดในโลกก็เข้ามาเสริมพลังแบบเต็มขั้น ขับเคลื่อนโดย Jihan Wu ที่เล็งเห็นว่าพอยิ่งขยายบล็อก ธุรกรรมก็จะยิ่งทะลัก ค่าธรรมเนียมก็จะเพิ่มขึ้น นักขุดจะได้เงินดี สร้างแรงดึงดูดให้คนหันมาหาบิตคอยน์มากขึ้นไปอีก

Bitmain ถือ Hashrate มหาศาล จึงไม่ต่างจากมีทัพใหญ่พร้อมยกพลบุก เพื่อดันแนวคิด “Fork” ได้ตลอดเวลา ถ้าฝั่งเพิ่ม Blocksize อยากจะเล่นเกมสายไหนก็เดินได้เลย

อีกฟากสนาม คือทีม “Bitcoin Core” ถือเป็นแกนกลางที่คุมซอฟต์แวร์หลัก

นำโดย *Greg Maxwell, Peter Wuille และ Wladimir van der Laan***

พวกเขาห่วงว่าถ้าบล็อกใหญ่ขึ้นมาก คงจะมีแค่นายทุนใหญ่เท่านั้นที่รันโหนดไหว ประชาชนตัวเล็ก ๆ หรือคนไม่มีทรัพยากรเยอะก็ยิ่งถูกกันออกจากเครือข่าย กลายเป็นระบบกึ่งรวมศูนย์ ซึ่งสวนกับหลักการเดิมที่ Satoshi Nakamoto เคยวางไว้

พวกเขาจึงเสนอ Segregated Witness (SegWit) เพื่อตัดข้อมูลลายเซ็น (Witness Data) ทิ้งไปนอกบล็อก ทำให้มีพื้นที่รองรับธุรกรรมได้เยอะขึ้นแบบไม่ต้องขยาย “เลนหลัก” และจะต่อยอดด้วย Lightning Network เพื่อยกธุรกรรมส่วนใหญ่ไปอยู่นอกบล็อกอีกชั้น

ฝั่งนักพัฒนาเหล่านี้ไม่ได้สู้อย่างโดดเดี่ยว แต่มีผู้ใช้รวมพลังกันในนาม UASF (User-Activated Soft Fork) มองว่า

“ใครว่าขุดเยอะแล้วสั่งการได้หมด? ผู้ใช้ทั่ว ๆ ไปก็ออกแบบกติกาได้เหมือนกัน?”

พวกเขาบอกเลยว่า “ถ้าไม่หนุน SegWit พวกฉันไม่เอาด้วยนะ”

การเคลื่อนไหวแบบนี้สร้างแรงกดดันให้นักขุดต้องรีบตามน้ำ ไม่งั้นเสี่ยงโดนผู้ใช้ปฏิเสธบล็อกกันถ้วนหน้า

ปี 2016-2017 กลายเป็นช่วงร้อนระอุสุด ๆ Roger Ver ลุกขึ้นพูดเมื่อไหร่ มักกล่าวหาทีม Core ว่าปิดประตูโอกาสทองของบิตคอยน์

ส่วนทีม Core ก็ตีโต้กลับว่า “ถ้าเพิ่มบล็อกเร็วไป มีแต่จะทำให้บิ๊กทุนไม่กี่เจ้าเข้ามาผูกขาด!”

พอยิ่งเถียงกันในงานใหญ่ เช่น Consensus Conference 2017 ประเด็นก็ยิ่งเดือด บางฝ่ายอยาก “Fork” แตกสายไปเลย บางฝ่ายยังคอยประนีประนอม แต่ก็ไม่มีใครลงรอยกันได้

Roger Ver และ Bitmain เร่งเครื่องดัน Hard Fork

ทีม Core ไม่ยอมถอย ยืนกราน SegWit ก่อน แล้วใช้ Lightning Network ปิดเกม

ผลคือ...

ทุกคนเริ่มกลัวว่า “Bitcoin จะแตกเป็นสองสายจริง ๆ หรือ?”

จะเป็นบล็อกใหญ่ หรือจะอยู่ 1 MB พร้อม SegWit?

กลางปี 2017 สงครามนี้จึงคลอด “Bitcoin Cash” เครือข่ายใหม่ที่กลุ่ม Roger Ver ผลักดัน บอกว่านี่คือ “Bitcoin ตัวจริง” ที่ค่าธรรมเนียมถูกกว่า ธุรกรรมไวกว่า รองรับคนจำนวนมากได้

ในขณะเดียวกัน เครือข่ายหลัก BTC ก็เปิดใช้ SegWit ไป พร้อมมุ่งหน้าเปิดทาง Lightning Network ทำให้ครึ่งหนึ่งของชุมชนยังเชื่อมั่นว่าการรักษาบล็อกเล็ก คือหัวใจสำคัญของกระจายอำนาจ

Blocksize War ครั้งนี้ เกินกว่าจะเรียกว่า “ดีเบตเชิงเทคนิค”

มันคล้ายการปะทะอุดมการณ์ของ “กระจายอำนาจอย่างเคร่งครัด” ปะทะ “ขยายบล็อกให้ใช้งานจริงในชีวิตประจำวัน”

ทั้งสองฝ่ายต่างยิงวาทะกันเดือดในโซเชียลมีเดีย คนฝ่ายหนึ่งบอกอีกฝ่าย “ล้าหลังไม่รู้จักปรับตัว” อีกฝ่ายก็ยันกลับว่า “คิดแค่กำไรระยะสั้น ไม่รักษาอัตลักษณ์บิตคอยน์” บน Reddit, Twitter, ฟอรัมต่าง ๆ เหล่าผู้เคยเป็นเพื่อนร่วมทางต้องแยกค่ายกันเพราะมองต่างว่าควรเพิ่มบล็อกหรือเปล่า

ที่สุดแล้ว...

เมื่อสองอุดมการณ์สวนทางกันระดับราก แทบไม่มีพื้นที่ประนีประนอม บ้างเชื่อว่าถ้าไม่เพิ่มบล็อกบิตคอยน์จะใช้งานลำบากเกิน บ้างยึดมั่นว่าถ้าบล็อกใหญ่มากโหนดเล็ก ๆ ก็จะหายไปหมด ระบบจะตกในมือไม่กี่คน.. ซึ่งขัดเจตนารมณ์ตั้งต้นของ Satoshi แบบสุด ๆ

ผลลัพธ์จึงลงเอยด้วยการเกิด “Bitcoin Cash” (BCH) แยกเครือข่าย และเปิดศึกโฆษณาว่า “ตนต่างหากที่เป็นผู้สืบทอดแนวคิด Satoshi ของจริง”

เมื่อ Bitcoin Cash ถือกำเนิดพร้อมขนาดบล็อกใหญ่ “มหาศึก” ครั้งนี้ก็ไม่ได้จบลง แต่เปลี่ยนหน้าฉากไปสู่การตลาดและความชอบธรรม

ใคร ๆ ก็ตั้งคำถามว่า “Bitcoin Cash ต่างจาก Bitcoin ยังไง?” หรือ “ใครสืบทอดเจตนารมณ์ Satoshi อย่างแท้จริงกันแน่?”

นักพัฒนา ฝั่ง BTC ยังเหนียวแน่นว่ารักษาเครือข่ายให้เบา ๆ แล้วใช้ทริคอย่าง SegWit, Lightning Network เสริม คือทางออกป้องกันการรวมศูนย์

ฝ่าย BCH ก็บอกว่าบล็อกใหญ่เลยดีกว่า ทุกคนจะได้เทรดกันเพลินโดยไม่ต้องแย่งพื้นที่

ในภาพใหญ่.. สงครามครั้งนี้ส่งคลื่นกระเพื่อมไปทั่วโลกคริปโตฯ หลายคนกลัวว่าถ้ายังแยกแตกกันแบบนี้ต่อ ราคาจะผันผวนจนคนขยาด แต่ก็มีอีกฝ่ายที่มองว่า

“ดีสิ มีการแข่งขันแล้วเกิดนวัตกรรมใหม่ ๆ”

เพราะในโลกโอเพนซอร์ส ไม่มีใครหยุดการแยกตัวได้ถ้าคนบางกลุ่มอยากลองแนวทางใหม่

คำถามสำคัญคือ..

“ใครขับเคลื่อนสงคราม Blocksize?”

คำตอบก็หนีไม่พ้น Roger Ver, Bitmain และทีม Bitcoin Core รวมถึงกลุ่ม UASF

พวกเขาต่างมีพลังในมิติต่าง ๆ

Roger Ver มีแรงสนับสนุนจากนักขุดสายทุนจัด Bitmain มีกองทัพ Hashrate มหาศาล ทีม Bitcoin Core คุมซอฟต์แวร์ และ UASF ก็มีอำนาจ ‘No Node, No Vote’ ที่ปัดบล็อกไม่พอใจทิ้งได้หมด

นี่ไม่ใช่การรบระหว่าง “อำนาจกับผู้อ่อนแอ” แต่เป็นสมรภูมิที่ทุกขั้วมี “พลัง” อยู่คนละแบบ ทำให้การประนีประนอมเป็นเพียงอุดมคติ

จนที่สุดจึงแตกเป็นสองสาย เหมือนเป็นสปิริตของโอเพนซอร์สที่แค่ Fork ก็พาเดินไปคนละทิศ ใครอยากกดเครื่องขุดก็ขุด ใครอยากตามซอฟต์แวร์ Core ก็จัดไป

นึกภาพอนาคตสิครับ.. ถ้ามีเทคโนโลยีใหม่เข้ามาอีก จะมีสงคราม “Blocksize 2.0” หรือเปล่า? ถ้าเจอเงื่อนไขใหญ่ ๆ ในการเปลี่ยนระบบ ย่อมต้องเข้าสู่วงจรดีเบตเดือดปุดเหมือนเคย

เพราะบิตคอยน์เป็นระบบไร้ผู้นำสูงสุด ทุกฝ่ายจึงมีสิทธิชูมือคัดค้านหรือสนับสนุนอย่างอิสระ

ฉากในเนื้อหาส่วนนี้คือด้านหน้าฉากของสงคราม Blocksize และเหล่าคนขับเคลื่อนที่ทำให้เกิดการแตกแยกครั้งประวัติศาสตร์ในโลกบิตคอยน์ ส่วนต่อไปเราจะได้เห็นเทคนิคล้ำ ๆ และจุดชนวนสุดเฉพาะหน้าที่ทำให้สองฝ่ายยิ่งปะทะกันอีก

แต่ก่อนจะไปรอนั้น..

ขอสรุปให้คิดกันแบบง่าย ๆ ว่า… ในโลกอันไร้ศูนย์กลางที่ต่างคนต่างตะโกนว่า

“ฉันคือเจ้าของบิตคอยน์!”

สุดท้าย “ใครกันแน่เป็นผู้ตัดสินทิศทาง?” หรือแท้จริง “ชัยชนะ–ความพ่ายแพ้” ก็ไม่มีอยู่จริงในสงครามแบบนี้...

เอาจริง ๆ การตัดสินใจของไม่กี่คน หรือการร่วมตัวของยูสเซอร์กระจัดกระจาย ก็ล้วนมีสิทธิเปลี่ยนอนาคตของเงินดิจิทัลได้ทั้งสิ้น จึงเป็นเสน่ห์และความโกลาหลของ “decentralization” ที่น่าหลงใหล

ไม่มีใครสั่งใครได้เต็มร้อย แต่ก็ไม่มีใครจะหยุดคนอื่นได้หมดเช่นกัน

เมื่อมองย้อนกลับไป.. นี่แหละเป็นบทเรียนสำคัญว่าบิตคอยน์ไม่ได้เป็นของใครคนเดียว และถ้าวันหนึ่งไฟสงครามลุกลามขึ้นอีกรอบ เราทุกคนจะรับมือกันยังไง?

ตอนนี้สงครามอาจดูเงียบ ๆ แต่ก็ไม่ได้ปิดฉากสนิท เพราะคลื่นใต้น้ำยังพร้อมระอุขึ้นได้ตลอด

เวลาเท่านั้นที่จะบอกว่า SegWit จะพิสูจน์ตัวเองได้ไหม หรือฝ่าย Hard Fork จะกลับมาโดดเด่นอีกครั้ง

จึงมีแต่คำถามค้างคาว่า.. อีกหน่อยบิตคอยน์จะยังเป็นบิตคอยน์ในแบบที่เรารู้จัก? หรือจะเปลี่ยนโฉมตามรอยแผลที่สงคราม Blocksize ทิ้งไว้?

คอยติดตามกันต่อไปในบทความตอนที่ 2

เพราะนี่อาจเป็นวัฏจักรที่ยังไม่รู้วันสิ้นสุดจริง ๆ ก็ได้ครับ...

@ 9c35fe6b:5977e45b

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@ 2063cd79:57bd1320

Der letzte Artikel stand ganz im Zeichen von Mempool, Transaktionsgebühren, Ordinals, BRC-20 Tokens (aka Shitcoins auf Bitcoin) und Mining-Rewards. Der Mempool ist voller als der Hyde-Park in London am einzigen Sommertag mit Sonne im Jahr. Doch weil ich mich in letzter Zeit zu Genüge mit den vorgenannten Themen beschäftigt habe und man zur Zeit an jeder Ecke den Status des Mempools ungefragt eingeflößt bekommt, möchte ich mich diese Woche mit zwei Standpunkten beschäftigen, die entweder gegenläufig oder komplementär zueinander stehen (gibt es wirklich kein Antonym zum Wort komplementär?).

Ausschlaggebend für den Gedankengang, der mich zu dieswöchigem Artikel bewegt hat waren ein Artikel und eine Podcast-Episode, über die ich letzte Woche gestolpert bin. Bei dem Artikel handelt es sich um Jimmy Songs "How Fiat Money Broke the World" aus seiner Fixing the Incentives-Reihe im Bitcoin Magazine und bei der Podcast-Episode wurde ich von den Ausführungen von Peruvian Bull im TFTC Podcast Ausgabe 414: The Dollar Endgame von Marty Bent zum Nachdenken angeregt.

Prinzipiell stellt sich im Großen und Ganzen die Frage, wie eine großflächige Adaption von Bitcoin vonstatten gehen könnte. Hyperbitcoinization oder auch Bitcoin als gesetzliches Zahlungsmittel (wie z.B. in El Salvador, oder bald sogar in Indonesien und Mexiko (!)) sind dabei mögliche Szenarien. Der Nicht-Ghandi-Spruch “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” wird oft genutzt, um die soziologische Entwicklungsstufe, bzw. die öffentliche Wahrnehmung einer Idee, einer Erfindung oder eines Produkts in gewisse Entwicklungsstufen einzuordnen. Genauso wie bei Bitcoin. WIR SIND IN DER "THEN THEY FIGHT YOU" STUFE!!!11! kann man überall auf Bitcoin-Twitter, Nostr oder Reddit lesen.

Doch wer ist "THEY"? Wenn man nur von Nationalstaaten ausgeht und offizielle und inoffizielle (konspirative) multinationale Interessensgruppen außen vor lässt, stellt sich mir die Frage, welches Land / welcher Staat die meisten Gründe (politischer oder wirtschaftlicher Natur) hätte, Bitcoin zu adaptieren, bzw. zu bekämpfen. Natürlich kommen einem dabei als erstes die USA in den Sinn, immerhin das Land mit der höchsten kombinierten Bitcoin-Hashrate, mit den meisten Bitcoin-Infrastruktur-Anbietern, mit den größten Börsen (nach Handelsvolumen) und den meisten Bitcoin-Nutzer//innen in der Bevölkerung.

Doch macht das die USA zum größten potentiellen Gegner oder zum größten potentiellen Befürworter und Begünstigten von Bitcoin?

Jimmy Song "How Fiat Money Broke the World"

Jimmy Song baut seinen Artikel chronologisch auf. Es geht um die Entstehung des Fiat-Geld-Systems nach dem zweiten Weltkrieg und die damit einhergehende Abschaffung des Goldstandards. Mit der Errichtung des Bretton-Woods-Systems wurde eine neue Währungsordnung geschaffen, die den US Dollar als Ankerwährung bestimmte, der wiederum an Goldreserven gekoppelt werden sollte. So sollten flexible Wechselkurse innerhalb der verschiedenen Landeswährungen gewährleistet werden, während gleichzeitig die Sicherheit von Goldreserven existiert. Doch statt Gold für die internationale Handelsabwicklung zu verwenden, wurde nun der Dollar die Abwicklungswährung. Diese Entscheidung verhalf den USA zu einer hegemonialen Wirtschaftsmacht zu werden, denn die Fähigkeit, das Geld zu drucken, mit dem jedes andere Land seinen Handel abwickelte, gab den USA mehr Macht über den Rest der Welt.

Diese Dollar-Hegemonie begünstigte die USA deutlich im internationalen Handel, da sie zur Zentralbank für alle anderen Zentralbanken wurden. Nicht-US-Banken geben sogar Verbindlichkeiten in Dollar, und zwar nicht nur in Europa, sondern in vielen anderen Teilen der Welt. Infolgedessen halten andere Zentralbanken US Dollar als Reserve, die dann auf der Basis von Teilreserven verwendet werden können, um noch mehr Geld in Form von Krediten zu schaffen (das sogenannte Eurodollar-System).

Diese Position der Stärke nutzten die USA weiter aus und erschufen, was heute als das Petrodollar-System bekannt ist. Dank einem Abkommen zwischen Saudi-Arabien und den USA in den 1970ern wird das von allen Mitgliedsstaaten der OPEC geförderte Öl in US Dollar gehandelt, im Gegenzug für militärischen Schutz durch die USA. Das sogenannte Petrodollar-System hat dem US Dollar somit einen enormen Wert und hohe Liquidität verliehen.

Die war auch nötig, denn teure Sozialprogramme wie Medicare und Medicaid als auch das Social Security Programm wurden gestartet. Aber auch sehr teure Stellvertreterkriege, wie z.B. in Korea und Vietnam, wollten finanziert werden. Dies taten die USA, indem sie das Geld hierfür einfach druckten, was wiederum die Zentralbanken der anderen Länder nervös machte und dazu brachte, mit dem Abzug ihrer Goldeinlagen bei der US-Notenbank zu drohen. Der damalige Präsident Tricky Dick (Richard Nixon) reagierte darauf, indem er die Goldbindung des US Dollar zunächst nur temporär für immer aufhob. Damit hatte er den Dollar vom Gold ent- und an das Öl der Saudis (bzw. an den militärisch-industriellen Komplex der USA) gekoppelt.

Die USA haben also das exorbitante Privileg, das Geld drucken zu können, das die Welt für die Abwicklung von Handel verwendet. Dies bedeutet unter anderem, dass die USA ihre gedruckten Dollars exportieren und Waren und Dienstleistungen aus anderen Ländern importieren können. Somit wird das gedruckte Geld im Allgemeinen zuerst in den USA ausgegeben (Cantillon-Effekt in Reinform), was dazu führt, dass Geschäftserfolg in den USA zu einer viel höheren monetären Belohnung führt, als in anderen Ländern. Vereinfacht gesagt: In den USA schwimmt mehr Geld umher und somit wird Erfolg besser belohnt. Folglich wollen mehr Menschen in die USA ziehen, und die USA können auswählen, wer hineinkommt und wer nicht. Gut für die USA - schlecht für die anderen.

Die ehrgeizigsten Menschen aus anderen Ländern immigrieren in die USA und verdienen mehr Geld und leben ein viel besseres Leben als in ihren Heimatländern. Der Braindrain bedeutet, dass andere Länder unterm Strich verlieren. Menschen im Allgemeinen versuchen immer in Länder einzuwandern, die in der Cantillon-Hierarchie höher stehen. Die reichen Länder werden somit reicher an Humankapital, während die armen Länder an Humankapital ärmer werden.

Die USA schaffen es, ihre Stellung als Neuzeit-Kolonialist vor allem mit Hilfe von Sonderorganisationen, internationalen Finanzinstitutionen und anderen Stiftungen wie dem IWF, der BIZ, des WEF oder der Weltbank zu zementieren. Diese supranationalen Banken und Organisationen leihen Entwicklungsländern und "Ländern des globalen Südens" Geld für den (Wieder-) Aufbau und andere Struktur-relevante Tätigkeiten, aber nur unter strengen Auflagen, die noch strenger werden, wenn diese Kredite nicht zurückgezahlt werden können. In diesen Fällen werden diese Länder dann von den Banken "gerettet", unter der Auflage, noch mehr Kontrolle über die eigene Finanzsuveränität abzugeben.

Im Wesentlichen tauschen sie dabei Kredite und längere Laufzeiten gegen organisatorische Kontrolle über den Staatshaushalt. Solche Beschränkungen können Punkte beinhalten, wie z.B. wieviel des nationalen Budgets für Infrastruktur ausgegeben werden kann. Oft müssen diese verschuldeten Regierungen eine eigene unabhängige Zentralbank gründen, die dazu verwendet werden kann, die Notwendigkeit einer staatlichen Genehmigung zu umgehen. So werden Länder dazu gebracht Staats-Ressourcen, wie Schürfrechte oder Ländereien an ausländische Unternehmen zu verkaufen.

Jimmy Song führt seinen Artikel noch etwas fort, doch die mir wichtigsten Punkte habe ich erwähnt. Kurz zusammengefasst: Die USA haben durch die de facto Kontrolle über das Geld eine Sonderposition in der Welt. Nicht nur sitzen sie am Gelddrucker - Geld drucken kann jeder, klappt eben nur unter bestimmten Voraussetzungen (zumindest zeitweise) - sondern haben durch diese Kontrollsituation weitere Vorteile: 1) Das größte Exportgut der USA ist der US Dollar. 2) Die US-Wirtschaft hat einen klaren Vorteil anderen Wirtschaften gegenüber, da das Unternehmertum dort besser belohnt wird. 3) Viele ehrgeizige und talentierte Menschen der ganzen Welt strömen in die USA, um von dieser Belohnung zu profitieren. 4) Die internationalen Buchstabensuppen-Finanzinstitutionen stärken den USA den Rücken.

Die USA haben also ein sehr großes (das gröte) Interesse daran, das globale Finanzmonopol in der aktuellen Form aufrechtzuerhalten.

Peruvian Bull "The Dollar Endgame"

Die Ausgangsthese von Peruvian Bull, einem Autor, der ein gleichnamiges Buch veröffentlicht hat (The Dollar Endgame) ist, dass viele Zeichen darauf hindeuten, dass der US Dollar als Leitwährung der Welt seine letzten Atemzüge macht. Er ist dabei recht pessimistisch und glaubt, dass wir schon in den nächten fünf bis sieben Jahren eine große Veränderung erleben werden.

Allerdings sieht er eine große Chance für die USA, Bitcoin zu nutzen, um diesem Untergang entgegenzuwirken. Viele Länder und Institutionen außerhalb der westlichen Welt sehen den US Dollar kritisch und sind nicht besonders glücklich über die Vormachtstellung, die der Dollar den USA auf dem internationalen Finanzmarkt, dem globalen Handel und der geopolitischen Weltordnung verleiht. Die US-Notenbank wird immer mehr in die Ecke gedrängt und der einzige Ausweg aus der momentanen Schuldenspirale ist Hyperinflation.

Meine zwei Sats sind, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit natürlich immer besteht, allerdings bin ich persönlich davon überzeugt, dass der US Dollar, wenn überhaupt, die letzte Währung sein wird, die eine Hyperinflation erlebt, da vorher ganz andere Währungen das Zeitliche segnen müssten.

Doch um bei der These zu bleiben, bietet Bitcoin eine alternative Lösung zur Hyperinflation. Denn die USA könnten ihre Verluste reduzieren, indem sie auf eine Bitcoin-gestützte Leitwährung wechseln. Dazu sind die USA auch bestens aufgestellt: Die von Minern aufgebrachte Hashrate ist nirgendwo größer, als in den USA, Bitcoin-Bestände in Wallets sind nirgendwo größer als in den USA und die größten Bitcoin-Unternehmen, Unternehmen die Bitcoin fördern, oder Technologie entwickeln, die Bitcoin zugute kommt, sitzen in den USA.

Würden die USA, bzw. die US-Notenbank, zu einem Bitcoin-gestützten Währungssystem wechseln, müssten alle anderen Länder der Welt nachziehen, solange die USA diese (oben beschriebene) globale Vormachtstellung in der Weltwirtschaft noch innehaben. Dies würde den USA einen gewaltigen First-Mover-Vorteil bescheren, da nirgendwo sonst die Infrastruktur und der Zugang zu Bitcoin so stark ausgeprägt sind.

Es ist also nur eine politische Entscheidung, ob dieser First-Mover-Vorteil ausgenutzt wird oder nicht. Indem die Nutzung (institutioneller oder privater Art, Mining, Innovation, etc.) eingeschränkt wird, z.B. durch Verbote, Besteuerung, oder andere ungünstige Gesetze, wird die gesamte Branche und damit das technische Wissen, die Innovation und das damit verbundene Kapital ins Ausland verdrängt und die USA schießen sich ins eigene Bein.

Es wird sicherlich institutionellen Widerstand geben, da die derzeitigen institutionellen Akteure stark vom aktuellen System profitieren und daher nicht zu einem Bitcoin-Währungssystem wechseln wollen, in dem sie keine Zensurrechte und keine exklusiven Übertragungsrechte haben. Daher werden US-Institutionen wie die Notenbank und das Finanzministerium von diesem Ansatz nicht allzu begeistert sein, doch wenn sie es ernsthaft genug betrachten und erkennen, dass es sich hierbei um eine Form der geopolitischen, strategischen Kriegsführung handelt, könnten sie gezwungen sein, ihre Meinung zu ändern und sich auf ein neues System vorzubereiten, das den Idealen, wie Freiheit, Redefreiheit, Eigentumsrechten und solides Geld, treu bleibt, auf denen die USA gegründet wurden.

Peruvian Bull und Marty Bent führen in dieser Episode noch weitere Punkte aus, doch die mir wichtigsten Punkte habe ich wieder erwähnt. Kurz zusammengefasst: Die USA stehen davor, ihre globale Vormachtstellung zu verlieren. Ein Ausweg könnte die Adaption von Bitcoin als Retter des US Dollar sein. Die USA haben den fruchtbarsten Nährboden für eine solche Änderung des Systems, da sie heute schon die meiste Hashrate, das größte geistige Eigentum und Innovation, als auch das meiste Kapital bündeln.

Die USA hätten also in der Theorie ein sehr großes Interesse daran, Bitcoin als Lösung und zur Stützung ihres globalen Finanzmonopols zu adaptieren.

Zwei Theorien in zwei entgegengesetzte Richtungen 👈👉

Auf der einen Seite sehen wir ein Argument, weshalb den USA daran gelegen wäre, das aktuelle System so lange wie möglich aufrechtzuerhalten und dem alten Mann auf Krücken unter die Arme zu greifen. Auf der anderen Seite besteht ein Argument dafür, dass die USA ein gesteigertes Interesse daran haben sollten, das alte System so schnell wie möglich hinter sich zu lassen und die Pole Position, die die USA im Bereich Bitcoin haben - ohne Regierungs-seitig was dafür getan zu haben - für sich zu nutzen, um dem alten Mann auf Krücken zu einer Verjüngung zu verhelfen.

Es ist schwierig einzuschätzen, welchen Weg die USA gehen werden, da es immer noch keinen allgemeinen Konsens darüber gibt, wie Bitcoin zu betrachten ist. Der kürzlich vorgestellte DAME-Gesetzesentwurf (Digital Asset Mining Energy excise tax), also eine Verbrauchssteuer für Miner, der Biden-Regierung, würde von Bitcoin-Mining-Unternehmen verlangen, eine 30% Steuer auf die Stromkosten zu zahlen, die für das Mining von Bitcoin verwendet werden. Ein solches Gesetz würde die Mining Industrie aus dem Land drängen, da Miner heute schon auf sehr knappen Margen operieren und somit unprofitabel würden. Dies gleicht einer Bestrafung von Unternehmen für das Streben nach Innovation und technologischem Fortschritt.

Auf der anderen Seite gibt es aber auch die Ansicht, Bitcoin müsse ins Land geholt werden, da man es dort am besten kontrollieren kann, ganz nach dem Motto "Halte deine Freunde nah und deine Feinde noch näher". So z.B. Carole House, ehemalige Direktorin für Cybersicherheit des Nationalen Sicherheitsrates des Weißen Hauses. Sie sprach bei einem Event an der Universität von Princeton und sagte "sie würde lieber mehr Hashrate in den USA sehen, damit sie Miner zwingen können, das Netzwerk zu zensieren" und dass es "nicht nur darum ginge, Minern zu sagen, dass sie bestimmte Transaktionen nicht in Blöcke einbauen, sondern auch nicht auf Blöcken mit nicht konformen Transaktionen aufzubauen, damit diese Transaktionen nirgendwo in der Kette ankommen".

Wir sehen also, dass es selbst zwischen den Gegnern von Bitcoin keinen endgültigen Konsens gibt, wie das Thema in Zukunft angegangen werden soll. Da ist esnicht verwunderlich, dass auf Ebene eines Paradigmenwechsels, den die Adaption von Bitcoin von Seiten der Notenbank bedeuten würde, noch unklarer ist. Für mich sind beide Erklärungen logisch. Allerdings wissen wir nur zu gut, dass Regierungen es manchmal nicht so mit Logik und Vernunft haben.

🫳🎤

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In diesem Sinne, 2... 1... Risiko!‌

@ 207ad2a0:e7cca7b0

Quick context: I wanted to check out Nostr's longform posts and this blog post seemed like a good one to try and mirror. It's originally from my free to read/share attempt to write a novel, but this post here is completely standalone - just describing how I used AI image generation to make a small piece of the work.

Hold on, put your pitchforks down - outside of using Grammerly & Emacs for grammatical corrections - not a single character was generated or modified by computers; a non-insignificant portion of my first draft originating on pen & paper. No AI is ~~weird and crazy~~ imaginative enough to write like I do. The only successful AI contribution you'll find is a single image, the map, which I heavily edited. This post will go over how I generated and modified an image using AI, which I believe brought some value to the work, and cover a few quick thoughts about AI towards the end.

Let's be clear, I can't draw, but I wanted a map which I believed would improve the story I was working on. After getting abysmal results by prompting AI with text only I decided to use "Diffuse the Rest," a Stable Diffusion tool that allows you to provide a reference image + description to fine tune what you're looking for. I gave it this Microsoft Paint looking drawing:

and after a number of outputs, selected this one to work on:

The image is way better than the one I provided, but had I used it as is, I still feel it would have decreased the quality of my work instead of increasing it. After firing up Gimp I cropped out the top and bottom, expanded the ocean and separated the landmasses, then copied the top right corner of the large landmass to replace the bottom left that got cut off. Now we've got something that looks like concept art: not horrible, and gets the basic idea across, but it's still due for a lot more detail.

The next thing I did was add some texture to make it look more map like. I duplicated the layer in Gimp and applied the "Cartoon" filter to both for some texture. The top layer had a much lower effect strength to give it a more textured look, while the lower layer had a higher effect strength that looked a lot like mountains or other terrain features. Creating a layer mask allowed me to brush over spots to display the lower layer in certain areas, giving it some much needed features.

At this point I'd made it to where I felt it may improve the work instead of detracting from it - at least after labels and borders were added, but the colors seemed artificial and out of place. Luckily, however, this is when PhotoFunia could step in and apply a sketch effect to the image.

At this point I was pretty happy with how it was looking, it was close to what I envisioned and looked very visually appealing while still being a good way to portray information. All that was left was to make the white background transparent, add some minor details, and add the labels and borders. Below is the exact image I wound up using:

Overall, I'm very satisfied with how it turned out, and if you're working on a creative project, I'd recommend attempting something like this. It's not a central part of the work, but it improved the chapter a fair bit, and was doable despite lacking the talent and not intending to allocate a budget to my making of a free to read and share story.

The AI Generated Elephant in the Room

If you've read my non-fiction writing before, you'll know that I think AI will find its place around the skill floor as opposed to the skill ceiling. As you saw with my input, I have absolutely zero drawing talent, but with some elbow grease and an existing creative direction before and after generating an image I was able to get something well above what I could have otherwise accomplished. Outside of the lowest common denominators like stock photos for the sole purpose of a link preview being eye catching, however, I doubt AI will be wholesale replacing most creative works anytime soon. I can assure you that I tried numerous times to describe the map without providing a reference image, and if I used one of those outputs (or even just the unedited output after providing the reference image) it would have decreased the quality of my work instead of improving it.

I'm going to go out on a limb and expect that AI image, text, and video is all going to find its place in slop & generic content (such as AI generated slop replacing article spinners and stock photos respectively) and otherwise be used in a supporting role for various creative endeavors. For people working on projects like I'm working on (e.g. intended budget $0) it's helpful to have an AI capable of doing legwork - enabling projects to exist or be improved in ways they otherwise wouldn't have. I'm also guessing it'll find its way into more professional settings for grunt work - think a picture frame or fake TV show that would exist in the background of an animated project - likely a detail most people probably wouldn't notice, but that would save the creators time and money and/or allow them to focus more on the essential aspects of said work. Beyond that, as I've predicted before: I expect plenty of emails will be generated from a short list of bullet points, only to be summarized by the recipient's AI back into bullet points.

I will also make a prediction counter to what seems mainstream: AI is about to peak for a while. The start of AI image generation was with Google's DeepDream in 2015 - image recognition software that could be run in reverse to "recognize" patterns where there were none, effectively generating an image from digital noise or an unrelated image. While I'm not an expert by any means, I don't think we're too far off from that a decade later, just using very fine tuned tools that develop more coherent images. I guess that we're close to maxing out how efficiently we're able to generate images and video in that manner, and the hard caps on how much creative direction we can have when using AI - as well as the limits to how long we can keep it coherent (e.g. long videos or a chronologically consistent set of images) - will prevent AI from progressing too far beyond what it is currently unless/until another breakthrough occurs.

@ a012dc82:6458a70d

Table Of Content

• The Lazarus Group's Cryptocurrency Holdings

• A Significant Drop in Holdings

• No Privacy Coins in Sight

• Underreported Holdings?

• Previous Attacks and Thefts

• Warnings and Threats

• Conclusion

• FAQ

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies, security breaches and cyber heists have become alarmingly common. One name that frequently emerges in relation to these digital thefts is the Lazarus Group. This North Korean hacking collective has been linked to a series of high-profile cyber-attacks, amassing a significant amount of cryptocurrency in the process. This article delves deep into the group's activities, their holdings, and the implications of their actions on the crypto world.

The Lazarus Group's Cryptocurrency Holdings

The Lazarus Group, originating from North Korea, has made headlines with its vast cryptocurrency holdings. Recent reports suggest that this hacking collective has a digital treasure chest worth around $47 million. Bitcoin, the most popular and valuable cryptocurrency, forms the bulk of their holdings, with an estimated value of $42.5 million. In addition to Bitcoin, the group has diversified its holdings with Ether (ETH) valued at $1.9 million, BNB (BNB) worth $1.1 million, and a mix of stablecoins, primarily Binance USD (BUSD), which amounts to approximately $640,000.

A Significant Drop in Holdings

While the current figures are staggering, there has been a noticeable decline in the Lazarus Group's cryptocurrency assets. Data indicates that their holdings were valued at $86 million as of September 6. This value plummeted in the aftermath of the Stake.com hack, an event that saw the Lazarus Group as a prime suspect. Dune Analytics, a data monitoring platform, has been keeping a close eye on the group's activities. They have identified 295 wallets associated with the Lazarus Group, information corroborated by agencies like the FBI and the OFAC.

No Privacy Coins in Sight

For a hacking group that thrives on anonymity, it's surprising to note the absence of privacy coins in their portfolio. Coins such as Monero (XMR), Dash (DASH), and Zcash (ZEC), known for their enhanced privacy features, are conspicuously missing from their holdings. However, this hasn't deterred the group from continuing their operations. Their crypto wallets, devoid of privacy coins, have seen consistent activity, with the latest transaction recorded on September 20.

Underreported Holdings?

The figures mentioned might just be the tip of the iceberg. According to 21.co, the Lazarus Group's actual cryptocurrency holdings could be much higher than what's currently reported. This assertion is based on the data available to the public, suggesting that the group might have undisclosed assets hidden away.

Previous Attacks and Thefts

The Lazarus Group's foray into the crypto world has been marked by a series of attacks and thefts. They were the masterminds behind the CoinEx exchange hack, which resulted in losses exceeding $55 million. Their nefarious activities don't end there. The FBI has linked them to other significant breaches, including those targeting Alphapo, CoinsPaid, and Atomic Wallet. These attacks, in 2023 alone, saw the group walking away with more than $200 million. However, there's a silver lining. Chainalysis reports indicate a decline in crypto thefts by hackers associated with North Korea, with an 80% drop recorded from 2022.

Warnings and Threats The digital realm remains under the shadow of the Lazarus Group. Recent alerts from U.S. federal authorities have highlighted the group's potential to target critical sectors, including the U.S. healthcare and public health domains. These warnings underscore the group's capabilities and the persistent threat they pose.

Conclusion

The Lazarus Group's activities serve as a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities inherent in the digital space. Their vast cryptocurrency holdings, accumulated through a series of hacks and breaches, highlight the need for enhanced security measures in the crypto world. As the digital landscape continues to evolve, it's imperative for stakeholders to remain vigilant, ensuring that their assets are protected from such sophisticated threats. The story of the Lazarus Group is not just about a hacking collective's exploits but a call to action for the broader crypto community.

FAQ

Who is the Lazarus Group? The Lazarus Group is a North Korean hacking collective known for its high-profile cyber-attacks and significant cryptocurrency holdings.

How much cryptocurrency does the Lazarus Group hold? The group is reported to have amassed around $47 million in cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin forming the majority of their holdings.

Were there any recent significant drops in their holdings? Yes, their holdings saw a decline from $86 million as of September 6, especially after the Stake.com hack.

Does the Lazarus Group hold any privacy coins? Surprisingly, the group does not hold any known privacy coins like Monero, Dash, or Zcash.

Have there been any warnings about the Lazarus Group's activities? U.S. federal authorities have issued warnings about the group's potential to target sectors like U.S. healthcare and public health.

That's all for today

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

@ 662f9bff:8960f6b2

Folks - it really is time to wake up. How many more wars do we need? War on the Virus, War on Terror, War in Afghanistan, War in the Middle East, War in Vietnam - now War in Ukraine and who knows where else?

I grew up in Belfast in the 1970s and lived through the proxy war fought in my hometown. More recently I lived through a remarkably similar situation here in HK during 2019 and observed it happening too in Bangkok with some of the same participants spotted in media clips who had travelled from HK, presumably to orchestrate it there too. For years the motto of Belfast was "Belfast Says No" and it was prominent in a huge banner on the City Hall. Bitterness and resentment reigned for years until "Peace Broke Out", led by the women of Belfast insisting that people "Stop Fighting". Remember the Peace People?

Bottom line - war is never good. Benefits to society only ever emerge at times when people are working together, trading and collaborating for the better good.

In such situations you have "Voice or Exit" - you can speak up (if you are allowed) or exit (if you are allowed). That is why I left Northern Ireland (exit); the mess continued for 25 more years after that.

Concerning "Exit" - did you ever wonder why governments are now restricting the rights to travel? Or if/how you can preserve wealth if/when war develops?

The perpetual war footing that we find ourselves in was clearly warned about in George Orwell's 1984 - drumbeat of hostile distant foreign empires and their aggressions and victories. Sound familiar to anyone? Strangely, this was the conclusion of the "Report from Iron Mountain" from a 1967 US government panel which concluded that war, or a credible substitute for war, is necessary if governments are to maintain power. Search and ye shall find (still). Link here in case you cannot find it or are lazy!

Will you or your family benefit from what they say they are doing in your name?

By the way - the American People knew all this when they rebelled against the British and wrote their Constitution,

For those who prefer a more structured reading list, take your pick below:

• The Creature from Jekyll Island - The untold history of the FED...
• Sovereign Individual - written in 1997 they did predict personal computers, mobile phones, cryptocurrencies and even the current pandemic situation..
• The Fourth Turning - we have been here before
• The Fiat Standard - How it works - what you were never taught at school
• When Money Dies - The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany
• The Price of Tomorrow - The key to an abundant future is not what you have been told
• One of the best interviews of the year: Peter and Lyn discuss Currency wars
• Report from Iron Mountain - On the Possibility and Desirability of Peace

That's it!

No one can be told what The Matrix is. \ You have to see it for yourself.

Do share this newsletter with any of your friends and family who might be interested.

You can also email me at: LetterFrom@rogerprice.me

💡Enjoy the newsletters in your own language : Dutch, French, German, Serbian, Chinese Traditional & Simplified, Thai and Burmese.

@ 554ab6fe:c6cbc27e

Time is the most precious. Spending time with those we love, relaxing and enjoying peace of mind, and finding time for simple pleasures that warm our hearts are all examples of why we value time over everything else. We all want more time and know how finite it is.

In a previous article, I discussed how a better name for Bitcoin could be the Entropy Engine. In brief, Bitcoin is the Entropy Engine because system users rely upon entropic processes, either through private key generation or the mining process, to benefit from the system. Additionally, considering that life on earth is the consequence of the second law of thermodynamics, it is evident that Bitcoin accelerates our entropic purpose by monetizing energy production in a way never seen in human history. Bitcoin is all things entropy.

After writing the previous article, it slowly dawned on me that Bitcoin is valuable precisely because of its constraints related to entropy. Being an Entropy Engine gives Bitcoin the property of being scarce, and scarcity alongside utility brings value. These properties stem from the relationship between entropy and time. This article will discuss the relationship between entropy, time, and scarcity. These concepts will then help explain economic principles and pave the way to explaining why Bitcoin is a fascinating invention that brought economic value to the digital world.

Entropy is a measure of the disorder or randomness in a system. Essentially, entropy reflects the number of ways a system can be arranged, with higher entropy indicating more possible arrangements and more significant disorder. In an isolated system, entropy tends to increase over time, articulated through the second law of thermodynamics, which states that natural processes move towards a state of maximum entropy1. Our everyday experience with entropy can best be explained through heat. When energy is used to perform work, some of it gets released as heat, increasing the system's entropy by making the energy more dispersed and less useful.

Another impact entropy has on our daily lives is through the experience of time. As previously stated, the second law of thermodynamics states that, in a closed system, entropy always increases over time. Therefore, there is this dynamic where entropy is continuously growing, and our participation in a universe with such a law gives rise to the experience of an arrow of time1. In other words, time is a psychological experience resulting from interacting with a universe governed by the second law of thermodynamics1. It may seem intuitive to anyone reading this, but it is worth highlighting that time is always moving forward because entropy is continually increasing. No human can get any time back. From the point of view of a human, time is finite. Like energy and matter, which, according to the first law of thermodynamics, can neither be created nor destroyed, time is one of the universe's most limited resources.

Understanding the finite nature of time, energy, and matter is fundamental in economics. In his treatise on economics Man, Economy, and State with Power and Markets, Murray Rothbard states that "A man's time is always scarce. […] Therefore, time is a means that man must use to arrive at his ends. It is a means that is omnipresent in all human action"2. He goes on to state that "[…][i]n the first place, all means are scarce, i.e., limited with respect to the ends that they could possibly serve. […] Secondly, these scarce means must be allocated by the actor to serve certain ends and leave other ends unsatisfied. This act of choice may be called economizing the means to serve the most desired ends"2. Economics is fundamentally the study of how human beings make choices that allocate resources to satisfy their desires. Rothbard here highlights how because both time and the planet's resources are finite, human beings must choose how to allocate those resources. On aggregate, these individual decisions lead to the flourishing of human society as it develops and grows by becoming more and more efficient in resource allocation.

We all live on this one planet together. The resources on this earth are finite, which raises the question of how best to allocate these resources to satisfy everyone's needs and desires peacefully. The study of economics shows that free markets, which facilitate the free decision-making process of every human being, are the best way for all the resources to be allocated to maximize human flourishing if it is done so under the principle of non-aggression2,3. Notably, markets are needed because time and matter/energy are finite in the first place and are the necessary means to satisfy our ends. Put another way, economic value exists because of the scarce and useful nature of resources.

Consider now the vital relationship between the laws of thermodynamics and economics. The first law of thermodynamics, which states that matter and energy cannot be created nor destroyed, gives rise to the fact that resources are scarce on earth, which fuels economic decision-making amongst human beings. Additionally, the second law of thermodynamics, which highlights the universe's entropic nature, indicates that time is also scarce, valuable, and an integral aspect of economic decision-making, as all economic actions must use time. Most importantly, as described in more detail in the previous article, biological life can be viewed as the consequence of the entropic process of the universe. Life formed to help accelerate the increase in entropy. The process by which humans utilize energy and help accelerate the increase in entropy can also be viewed from an economic lens: economic decision-making helps drive the pursuit and innovation of energy production and usage. If economics is the study of the process by which human beings collectively make decisions, through individual action, that drive our societal progress forward. Then it is also the study of how human beings further accelerate their role in the entropic process of the universe. Entropy is the reason why we have economic markets, and economic markets help accelerate the entropic process. It is impossible to separate the laws of thermodynamics from the existence of the economic process within human society.

What is also appropriate to consider is the necessary properties of money. Nick Szabo, in his work "Shelling Out: The Origins of Money," provides an anthropological interpretation of how the use of money developed4. In trade, two potentially untrusting parties must find a way to trust one another. To do so, we can rely upon tokens of record governed by the laws of nature, which we all can trust. A commodity can be a helpful medium of exchange when it is scarce and hard to reproduce to the degree that people understand the extreme amount of energy and effort it would take to counterfeit one. Scarcity is how homo-sapiens detect the energy required to obtain a given object, giving it trust and validity as a unit of record. In this way, the first law of thermodynamics, which expresses matter as finite, provides a condition from which human beings can benefit by using it to trust one another. Not only is scarcity an underlying property that is the cause for economics, but the scarcer commodities, or at least those with the highest stock-to-flow ratio, are used as a medium of exchange that allows for more productive exchange within the economy5. In other words, most of a certain kind of scarcity is an underlying property in what makes high-quality money.

What is then interesting to ponder is the concept of the most scarce. One of the scarcest things we value, that which is most scarce, is time. Due to the second law of thermodynamics, time is the most finite and scarce resource. There is no way of 'recovering' or 'creating' more time. In that same vein, money can be conceptualized as an economic abstraction of time. I work now to receive money, which I can use to satisfy an end later. Similarly, I invest some money now so that it may grow, and I can benefit even more from that money later. Money and time are linked. Therefore, it stands to reason that the soundest form of money will be related to time in some fundamental sense. The better a money can store time, the more attractive that money is to use.

One significant component that contributes to the considerable innovation of Bitcoin is the difficulty adjustment. The difficulty adjustment in Bitcoin ensures that the time to mine a block remains close to 10 minutes, regardless of changes in the total mining power (the amount of energy being contributed to the network). This adjustment is crucial because it prevents blocks from being mined too quickly or slowly as miners join or leave the network. By recalibrating every 2016 blocks, the network maintains a certain rhythm, creating a new block every 10 minutes. It isn't easy to design a circuit board that can track time accurately and autonomously without relying on external time sources. However, creating a computer network that emulates the laws of thermodynamics via the mining process while simultaneously including the difficulty adjustment to give the machine a sense of time allowed it to adopt properties that were unique to nature itself. In this case, it is the first digital software that fully inherited the properties of scarcity.

Judging the correct ending for an article that blends so many disciplines is difficult. Perhaps the best way is to go full circle. The works of Donald Hoffman suggest that time is a consequence of human consciousness, not fundamental to the universe, that serves a positive utility towards our evolutionary pursuit of survival6. The predecessor article to this one highlighted how life is a consequence of the entropic nature of the universe. Perhaps time and our perceived relationship between time and entropy are helpful for life in pursuing its nature in this regard. Human beings gravitate towards scarce money like mosquitos gravitate toward light because it can be beneficial in the economic pursuit, which drives us toward the efficiency of furthering the production of entropy. This is potentially why those studying Bitcoin tend to view it as a technology of freedom, peace, prosperity, and more because money is a fundamental tool at which we are allowed to pursue such inherent purpose.

References

1. Grünbaum A. TIME AND ENTROPY. Am Sci. Published online 1996.

2. Rothbard MN. Man, Economy, and State with Power and Markets. Second Edition. Ludwig von Mises Institute; 1977.

3. Mises L von. Human Action: A Treatise on Economics. Ludwig von Mises Institute; 1940.

4. Szabo N. Shelling Out: The Origins of Money. Satoshi Nakamoto Institute. Published 2002. Accessed April 19, 2023. https://nakamotoinstitute.org/shelling-out/

5. Ammous S. The Bitcoin Standard. Wiley; 2018.

6. Hoffman DD, Prakash C. Objects of consciousness. Front Psychol. 2014;5(JUN). doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00577

@ 662f9bff:8960f6b2

Still pleasant weather in HK but it is cooling down and in a few days we will likely shift in to the cold and cloudy January/February that is HK winter.

A shorter update from me this week as I think the more important things are in the links below. Read, watch, listen and DYOR. Maybe time to wake up?

Reading

I have now started on When Money Dies - The Nightmare of Deficit Spending, Devaluation, and Hyperinflation in Weimar, Germany. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Once aware of them you will see signs all around you. FYI quite apparent now in Turkey.

Interesting also: I think it is not linked on their website but still accessible if you know where to look (maybe download and safestore it before it disappears): The Bank of England 1914-21 (Unpublished War History). This corroborates and elaborates on what you can read in The Creature from Jeckyll Island.

Watching

Just a few things to watch this week - in the order that I watched them. They are long but rather important - so I am pushing this out early in the weekend so you have time.

Mattias Desmet on Our Grave Situation

Professor Mattias Desmet (from Ghent, Belgium) talks about his work that connects past historical episodes of what is called “Mass Formation” (aka Mass Psychosis) and current events. The risks are as grave as they come. Unless a few brave and courageous people are willing to stand up and say “I don’t agree!” history suggests that we will end up with a fully totalitarian outcome. That is a dark path. It inevitably leads to mass casualties and atrocities. Eventually all totalitarian systems end in their own destruction.

Dr Robert Malone on Joe Rogan Experience

Its a looong interview but there are timestamps below if you want to dip in. \ Dr. Robert Malone is the inventor of the nine original mRNA vaccine patents, which were originally filed in 1989 (including both the idea of mRNA vaccines and the original proof of principle experiments) and RNA transfection. Dr. Malone, has close to 100 peer-reviewed publications which have been cited over 12,000 times. Since January 2020, Dr. Malone has been leading a large team focused on clinical research design, drug development, computer modeling and mechanisms of action of repurposed drugs for the treatment of COVID-19. Dr. Malone is the Medical Director of The Unity Project, a group of 300 organizations across the US standing against mandated COVID vaccines for children. He is also the President of the Global Covid Summit, an organization of over 16,000 doctors and scientists committed to speaking truth to power about COVID pandemic research and treatment.

Here are some of the key points discussed with time codes:

• 24:19: An estimated 500,000 COVID Deaths resulted from the suppression of Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ).
• 25:39: Former head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Dr. Janet Woodcock, intentionally prevented doctors from using HCQ outside of the hospital setting (HCQ is one of the few antiviral medications safe in pregnancy and is largely ineffective once a person has been hospitalized).
• 31:10: Pharma industry’s systematic efforts to discredit ivermectin.
• 32:40: COVID deaths in the Indian State of Uttar Pradesh plummeted soon after packets of medicines were distributed to their population. It is suspected these packets included Ivermectin but this was never formally disclosed. This puzzling policy went into effect soon after a meeting between President Biden and Prime Minister Modi.
• 36:28: Increased risk of adverse events from vaccinating after SARS-COV2 infection.
• 38:40: 140 studies demonstrate natural immunity is superior to vaccine-induced immunity. Natural immunity is 6- to 13-fold better than vaccination in preventing hospitalization.
• 43:44: The Trusted News Initiative employed to protect western elections from foreign influence was used to justify the suppression of “misinformation” around the pandemic.
• 50:15: Emails between NIH Director Francis Collins and Fauci demonstrate an intention to launch a smear campaign against the founders of the Great Barrington Declaration.
• 54:00: How is Israel (highly vaccinated) faring in comparison to Palestine (poorly vaccinated)?
• 57:00: Why is good data nearly impossible to find?
• 1:06:00: The regulatory process is broken because vaccine manufacturers are responsible for their own data (FDA is not doing its job as a regulatory body).
• 1:14:50: Arguably the best clinicians of our day are having their medical licensure attacked.
• 1:22:50: Hong Kong study demonstrates that 1 in 2,700 boys getting hospitalized with myocarditis after vaccination.
• 1:27:00: Lipid nanoparticles pose danger to ovaries.
• 1:46:30: Long COVID and post-vaccination syndrome are impossible to differentiate.
• 1:49:00: Dysregulation of T-cells after vaccination may be causing latent virus reactivation (e.g., shingles).
• 1:59:00: Omicron and the possible negative efficacy of vaccines.
• 2:06:20: What is Original Antigenic Sin?
• 2:20:00: Monoclonal antibody therapies are still important but have been limited by our authorities.
• 2:22:10: Vaccine mandates are illegal.
• 2:35:50: Pfizer is one of the most criminal pharmaceutical organizations in the world.
• 2:37:00: What are mass formation psychosis and tribalism?
• 2:53:00: We are having a worldwide epidemic of suicide in children.

That's it!

No one can be told what The Matrix is. \ You have to see it for yourself.

Do share this newsletter with any of your friends and family who might be interested.

You can also email me at: LetterFrom@rogerprice.me

💡Enjoy the newsletters in your own language : Dutch, French, German, Serbian, Chinese Traditional & Simplified, Thai and Burmese.

@ d34e832d:383f78d0

Lets explore three key aspects of Bitcoin technology to enhance your engagement with the ecosystem:

1. Running an Alby Hub Cloud Instance
2. Setting Up a Nutshell Ecash Mint on an Affordable VPS
3. Integrating Nostr Wallet Connect for Seamless Tipping

These components empower users to manage transactions, ensure privacy, and facilitate smooth interactions within the Bitcoin and Nostr communities.

1. Running an Alby Hub Cloud Instance

Purpose and Benefits:

Alby Hub is a self-custodial Lightning wallet that allows you to manage Bitcoin transactions efficiently. By running an Alby Hub instance in the cloud, you gain 24/7 online access to receive payments via a Lightning address, integrate with various applications, and maintain control over your funds without the need for personal hardware.

Setting Up Alby Hub in the Cloud:

• Choose Alby Cloud: For a hassle-free setup, Alby offers a cloud service where you can start your own hub in just 2 minutes. Give it A Try: Alby Cloud

• Subscription Benefits: Subscribing to Alby Cloud provides you with a self-custodial Lightning wallet, 24/7 online access, exclusive partner deals, priority support, and access to a subscriber community.

• Self-custodial Lightning wallet

• Getting Started: Visit the Alby Cloud page, select the subscription that suits you, and follow the guided setup process to have your hub up and running quickly.

• Alby Cloud page

For a visual guide on setting up Alby Hub, you can watch the following tutorial:

2. Setting Up a Nutshell Ecash Mint on an Affordable VPS

Purpose and Benefits:

Nutshell is an implementation of Ecash, a digital cash system that prioritizes privacy and anonymity. Setting up a Nutshell Ecash mint on a Virtual Private Server (VPS) allows you to operate your own mint, enhancing transaction privacy and providing a backup system for your Bitcoin transactions.

Setting Up on a $5 VPS:

• Select a VPS Provider: Choose an affordable VPS provider that supports Bitcoin and Nostr communities. For instance, SatoshiHost offers VPS services tailored for such needs.

• Install Nutshell: After setting up your VPS, install the Nutshell software by following the official installation guide.

• Nutshell

• Full Cashu Implementation

• Configure the Mint: Set up the mint parameters, including denomination and security settings, to suit your requirements.

• Secure the Server: Implement security measures such as firewalls and regular updates to protect your mint from potential threats.

• Recommendations
• Server Tips

3. Integrating Nostr Wallet Connect for Seamless Tipping

Purpose and Benefits:

Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) is an open protocol that enables applications to interact with Bitcoin Lightning wallets. Integrating NWC allows for seamless tipping and payments within Nostr apps, enhancing user experience and promoting engagement.

Integration Steps:

• Choose a Supporting App: Select a Nostr app that supports NWC, such as Amythystor Damus.

• Connect Your Wallet: Use NWC to link your preferred Lightning wallet to the Nostr app. This connection facilitates seamless payments without the need to switch between applications.

• Test the Integration: Perform a test transaction to ensure that the tipping functionality works as intended.

• Maintain Security: Regularly update your wallet and Nostr app to incorporate the latest security features and improvements.

For a deeper understanding of Nostr Wallet Connect and its significance, you can watch the following discussion:

Final Thoughts On Setup

Implementing these components enhances your interaction with the Bitcoin ecosystem by providing efficient transaction management, improved privacy, and seamless integration with Nostr applications. By running an Alby Hub cloud instance, setting up a Nutshell Ecash mint on an affordable VPS, and integrating Nostr Wallet Connect, you contribute to a more robust and user-friendly Bitcoin environment.

Invitation for Feedback

I encourage you to share any questions or feedback regarding these topics. Let's continue the conversation to explore how we can further engage with and improve upon these technologies.

@ 3ffac3a6:2d656657

Prologue: The Last Trade

Ethan Nakamura was a 29-year-old software engineer and crypto enthusiast who had spent years building his life around Bitcoin. Obsessed with the idea of financial sovereignty, he had amassed a small fortune trading cryptocurrencies, all while dreaming of a world where decentralized systems ruled over centralized power.

One night, while debugging a particularly thorny piece of code for a smart contract, Ethan stumbled across an obscure, encrypted message hidden in the blockchain. It read:

"The key to true freedom lies beyond. Burn it all to unlock the gate."

Intrigued and half-convinced it was an elaborate ARG (Alternate Reality Game), Ethan decided to follow the cryptic instruction. He loaded his entire Bitcoin wallet into a single transaction and sent it to an untraceable address tied to the message. The moment the transaction was confirmed, his laptop screen began to glitch, flooding with strange symbols and hash codes.

Before he could react, a flash of light engulfed him.

---

Chapter 1: A New Ledger

Ethan awoke in a dense forest bathed in ethereal light. The first thing he noticed was the HUD floating in front of him—a sleek, transparent interface that displayed his "Crypto Balance": 21 million BTC.

“What the…” Ethan muttered. He blinked, hoping it was a dream, but the numbers stayed. The HUD also showed other metrics:

• Hash Power: 1,000,000 TH/s
• Mining Efficiency: 120%
• Transaction Speed: Instant

Before he could process, a notification pinged on the HUD:

"Welcome to the Decentralized Kingdom. Your mining rig is active. Begin accumulating resources to survive."

Confused and a little terrified, Ethan stood and surveyed his surroundings. As he moved, the HUD expanded, revealing a map of the area. His new world looked like a cross between a medieval fantasy realm and a cyberpunk dystopia, with glowing neon towers visible on the horizon and villagers dressed in tunics carrying strange, glowing "crypto shards."

Suddenly, a shadow loomed over him. A towering beast, part wolf, part machine, snarled, its eyes glowing red. Above its head was the name "Feral Node" and a strange sigil resembling a corrupted block.

Instinct kicked in. Ethan raised his hands defensively, and to his shock, the HUD offered an option:

"Execute Smart Contract Attack? (Cost: 0.001 BTC)"

He selected it without hesitation. A glowing glyph appeared in the air, releasing a wave of light that froze the Feral Node mid-lunge. Moments later, it dissolved into a cascade of shimmering data, leaving behind a pile of "Crypto Shards" and an item labeled "Node Fragment."

---

Chapter 2: The Decentralized Kingdom

Ethan discovered that the world he had entered was built entirely on blockchain-like principles. The land was divided into regions, each governed by a Consensus Council—groups of powerful beings called Validators who maintained the balance of the world. However, a dark force known as The Central Authority sought to consolidate power, turning decentralized regions into tightly controlled fiefdoms.

Ethan’s newfound abilities made him a unique entity in this world. Unlike its inhabitants, who earned wealth through mining or trading physical crypto shards, Ethan could generate and spend Bitcoin directly—making him both a target and a potential savior.

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Chapter 3: Allies and Adversaries

Ethan soon met a colorful cast of characters:

• Luna, a fiery rogue and self-proclaimed "Crypto Thief," who hacked into ledgers to redistribute wealth to oppressed villages. She was skeptical of Ethan's "magical Bitcoin" but saw potential in him.

• Hal, an aging miner who ran an underground resistance against the Central Authority. He wielded an ancient "ASIC Hammer" capable of shattering corrupted nodes.

• Oracle Satoshi, a mysterious AI-like entity who guided Ethan with cryptic advice, often referencing real-world crypto principles like decentralization, trustless systems, and private keys.

Ethan also gained enemies, chief among them the Ledger Lords, a cabal of Validators allied with the Central Authority. They sought to capture Ethan and seize his Bitcoin, believing it could tip the balance of power.

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Chapter 4: Proof of Existence

As Ethan delved deeper into the world, he learned that his Bitcoin balance was finite. To survive and grow stronger, he had to "mine" resources by solving problems for the people of the Decentralized Kingdom. From repairing broken smart contracts in towns to defending miners from feral nodes, every task rewarded him with shards and upgrades.

He also uncovered the truth about his arrival: the blockchain Ethan had used in his world was a prototype for this one. The encrypted message had been a failsafe created by its original developers—a desperate attempt to summon someone who could break the growing centralization threatening to destroy the world.

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Chapter 5: The Final Fork

As the Central Authority's grip tightened, Ethan and his allies prepared for a final battle at the Genesis Block, the origin of the world's blockchain. Here, Ethan would face the Central Authority's leader, an amalgamation of corrupted code and human ambition known as The Miner King.

The battle was a clash of philosophies as much as strength. Using everything he had learned, Ethan deployed a daring Hard Fork, splitting the world’s blockchain and decentralizing power once again. The process drained nearly all of his Bitcoin, leaving him with a single satoshi—a symbolic reminder of his purpose.

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Epilogue: Building the Future

With the Central Authority defeated, the Decentralized Kingdom entered a new era. Ethan chose to remain in the world, helping its inhabitants build fairer systems and teaching them the principles of trustless cooperation.

As he gazed at the sunrise over the rebuilt Genesis Block, Ethan smiled. He had dreamed of a world where Bitcoin could change everything. Now, he was living it.