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@ Satoshi_shrugged
2024-12-10 01:25:32The rise of UAVs
Drones, we have all heard of them, seen them, and many of us own them. Also known as UAVs (Unmanned Arial Vehicles) they come in endless different shapes and sizes, from 2inch Cinewhoop FPVs (First Person View) to large military drones like the Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk which can fly for over 30 hours at speeds over 300mph.
In recent conflicts, most notably the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, we have seen drones play a very significant role. The utilization of small consumer or cheaply manufactured drones for reconnaissance, dropping payloads, delivering supplies, and as "kamikaze" weapons has been well documented.
These so called Kamikaze drones have been devastatingly effective due to the asymmetry of risk on the side of the drone attacker as opposed to traditional warfare methods. The FPV pilot can sit in a secure location several miles from the enemy, and launch $500-$1,000 drones to take out signifiant infrastructure, tanks, personnel, ect. By embracing a new paradigm of warfare a smaller force with significantly less resources is able to project a disproportionate amount of power.
Outside of military use we have seen drones used for many other applications such as 3D mapping, Thermal imaging, Delivery services, agricultural uses, and choreographed displays. All of these take something that once required a human operator present and allows them to be automated. While many of these applications do still require a human operator, it is not a far stretch to imagine that, with advancements in computation and machine learning they will grow more and more hands off.
Being able to utilize a computer program to fly a pre-set flightpath over a location and generate a 3D model of it or gather thermal data is already a reality. Companies now offer docking stations which charge the drone and it can take off and land from autonomously.
The use of large swarms of drones to create arial displays has also been growing in popularity in recent years. fleets of hundreds and sometimes thousands of drones are programmed to flight in precise coordinated patterns in order to create complex shapes and images in the sky. The idea of a single computer being able to control and coordinate such a vast number of vehicles is mind boggling.
Drones in the digital revolution
The "Digital Revolution" has been talked about at great lengths by many people and generally refers to the rapid growth in computation which has lead to growth in access to information and global connectivity. This new wave has seen the dematerialization of many things in our life. E-mail, E-commerce, Social Applications, Wikipedia, Bitcoin, ect. are all examples of previously physical things being dematerialized in the digital age.
UAVs give us a bridge between the digital and physical worlds. A software program run on a computer can now deliver a package to someone across town who just placed an order on a website. They can be used to inspect properties or other physical assets from a distance or to spray crops on large pieces of land.
Along with these "civilian" applications it is easy to imagine a future where drones have an even larger significance in warfare. If you combine the drone swarms used in light displays with the kamikaze drones being used in Ukraine, you get a very scary proposition. If warfare becomes increasingly autonomous, manpower will matter far less and resources will matter much more. A small wealthy nation may be able to wield significant power through their UAV systems.
Decentralization of UAVs
When considering the potential future with respect to drones and drone weapons systems, it is easy to become concerned with a potential Orwellian future where the government has patrol drones and can arrest you autonomously for your thought crimes. While government tyranny is always a serious concern, I am hopeful for the future.
The second amendment in the United States is designed to ensure that the citizens have enough power to resist a tyrannical government. I see drones as a force which levels playing fields, the average individual has access to the same drones which are being used in conflict right now in Ukraine. With the digital revolution we have also seen 3D printing grow massively in popularity and utility and individuals have been experimenting with 3D designs for firearms and drones. This further democratizes access to self defense allowing many more individuals access to the tools necessary to defend themselves in the physical world through a digital file. The future is going to be a very interesting place. I believe that the lines between the physical and digital worlds will continue to blur and that unmanned aircraft are going to play a significant role in that transformation.