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@ Inner Circle Nostrich 🔮
2024-11-18 15:07:13Comments:
This is where we embark on our journey and set sail into unknown waters...
Seasonal Trend/Monthly Changes:
While Bitcoin's seasonal trend often resembles that of the SP500, sometimes they can lead or lag each other. We have been in a bullish trend for 24 months since November 2022, which exceeds the average duration of a bullish trend that ranges from 9 to 18 months. The reality is harsh, and we are in a brutally bullish market. This November has been like the last 15 years of Bitcoin, and we expect a premium close this month.
https://image.nostr.build/f03e1e0ac181e109688d0efc9f5ccd52133ce9e37da7de26d2789b72bac47834.png
Interest Rate Differentials:
The FED has lowered the interest rate to 4.75% after 3 years, signaling the first dovish signs. The inflation target of 2% has not yet been reached but remains close. Among central banks, the FED and the BOE currently maintain the highest rates. The central bank market gives us a framework and a positive bias.
Market Structure:
Since November 2022, we have a clear monthly bullish trend that marked a new ATH in March 2024 and has projected after 7 months of re-accumulation to keep us bullish and embark on projections.
https://image.nostr.build/c507c91a14ba63bf3afb11217ab19ef0b17f18eeb81a46baf356ccc78d140783.png
Intermarket Analysis:
The YM and ES reached a new all-time high in October. The NQ has had a relative high but has not yet presented a new all-time high, being the most delayed.
The ZF, ZN, and ZB bonds have had a negative month, closing below the lows and a FVG M. They are likely to continue with some weakness. The 5, 10, and 30-year interest rates behave inversely with strength.
The DYX has achieved a strong bullish reversal. There is weakness in peripheral currencies led by the EUR.
In commodities, the GC maintains another month with a bullish close at highs, being the strongest. BTC achieves a monthly close above relative highs after 7 months. CL shows weakness without being able to achieve a bullish close.
The conclusion is the strength of the stock market led by the ES and YM, but they may be approaching a trend end. This is reflected in the DYX making a monthly bullish MSS. In commodities, the GC continues to lead with great strength, and BTC has achieved the first sign of a monthly bullish change, projecting above highs following the path of GC. CL is in a high resistance and lagging territory.
Market Profile:
The market is frankly and brutally bullish, taking a new high and fleetingly massacring structures at a discount. We can only watch and project a trend end when it occurs, but never go against institutional order flow.
Operational Range:
49577 to 93483. Currently in Premium Zone.
PD Array Matrix:
Premium: - ATH 93483.00
Discount: - OB+M 64612 - FVG M 59313 - PML 58867
Equilibrium: - 71530
Key Price Levels: - OB+M 64612. I do not expect closes below the CE of the structure to maintain the bullish idea.
Monthly BIAS:
Bullish BIAS.
Monthly Objective:
- The first objective has been the extension +1.5SD of the consolidation at 85903, which has already been met. The second objective would be the extension between +2.0SD and +2.5SD between the values of 98011 and 110120. I have doubts whether it will find the strength to reach here this month, given that ideally, we will do so before closing 2024.
https://image.nostr.build/95a89792f35540e0c6302dbd2a82e2cb6bac8a92f5b813312ce5104bbf877beb.png
"The market is the mirror through which we truly see who we are, godspeed traveler."