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@ HoNklEr Fitzgerald IV
2025-05-01 15:46:13Hey there, racing fans! Let’s talk about a straightforward betting strategy that’s been around for years, often used by folks who treat horse racing more like a business than a gamble. This method is all about following a clear staking plan to aim for a small, consistent profit per race—without needing to be a racing expert. I’ll break it down step-by-step so it’s easy to understand, even if you’re new to this! The Goal: Small, Steady Wins The idea here is to aim for a target profit (T) of 5 points per race. Think of a "point" as a unit of money you decide on—it could be $50, $1, or whatever you’re comfortable with. For example, I use a starting bank of $200, and I set each point at $1. So, 5 points = $5 profit per race. Important Rule: Once you pick the value of a point, stick with it throughout the entire betting sequence. Don’t change it, no matter what happens! Why This Works (Even If You Know Nothing About Racing) This plan is designed so that you’ll eventually win, even if you’re clueless about horses. The catch? You need to be patient and okay with small profits per point because the stakes (the amount you bet) can grow after each loss. For example: If you set each point at £1 and lose 10 races in a row, your 11th bet would need to recover $55 (your target plus losses).
If you set each point at 25p, you’d only need to recover $13.75 after 10 losses.
See the difference? Lower point values mean smaller risks, but also smaller profits. Pick a point value that matches the risk you’re willing to take and the profit you want to make. How the Staking Plan Works Here’s the basic idea: you start with a target profit of 5 points per race. If you lose, you add your loss to the next race’s target. If you win, you subtract your gain. The goal is to keep going until you hit your total profit target, then start over. Let’s break down the key terms: T (Target): Your profit goal for the race (starts at 5 points).
T + L: Your target plus any losses from previous races (or minus any gains if you won).
S (Stake): How much you bet on the race.
R (Result): Whether you won (e.g., 2-1 means the horse paid 2-to-1 odds) or lost (L).
W (Points Won): How many points you gained from a win.
L (Points Lost): How many points you lost from a bet.
AWL (Running Total): Your accumulated wins and losses over the sequence.
Once you reach your overall profit goal (like 40 points in the example below), you take your winnings and start the sequence over with a 5-point target. Example Sequence: Watch It in Action Here’s a sample sequence to show how this plays out. I’m using a 1-per-point value for simplicity: Race( see image posted for details in url or comment section)
What happened here? In Race 1, I aimed for 5 points but lost my 2-point stake, so my running total is -2.
In Race 2, I added my loss (2) to the new target (10), so I’m aiming for 12 points. I lost again, so my running total drops to -6.
By Race 8, I finally hit a big win (4-1 odds), gaining 44 points. My running total jumps to +50, which exceeds my overall target of 40 points.
I take my profit ($50 if each point is $1) and start over in Race 9 with a 5-point target.
How to Calculate Your Stake To figure out how much to bet (your stake), take your T + L (target plus losses) and divide by 3, rounding to the nearest whole number. Why 3? Because you want to bet on horses with odds of 3-1 or higher. A win at those odds will cover all your losses and give you your target profit. For example: In Race 4, my T + L is 33. Divide by 3: 33 ÷ 3 = 11. So, I bet 11 points.
My horse wins at 2-1 odds, so I get 22 points back (11 × 2). This clears my losses and gives me a profit.
Pro Tip: Stick to odds of evens (1-1) or higher. Many pros avoid “odds-on” bets (like 1-2) because they don’t pay enough to make this system work well. Tips to Make This Work for You Pick Your Races Wisely: You don’t have to bet on every race. Some pros bet on every race at a meeting (e.g., 6 races a day, 36 bets a week), but I recommend being selective. Consider using a professional tipping service for better picks—newspaper tips can be risky (one “expert” once picked 30 losers in a row!).
Spread Your Bets: Use 3 or 4 different bookmakers. No single bookie will be happy if you keep winning over time.
Account for Betting Tax (If Applicable): If there’s a tax on your bets, add it to your next race’s target. This way, the system covers the tax for you.
Be Prepared for Losing Streaks: Even with careful picks, you might hit a string of losses. That’s why you keep your point value low—so your stakes don’t balloon too much.
Why This Is a “Business,” Not Gambling People who use this method don’t see it as gambling—they treat racing like a business. The key is patience and discipline. A single win at 3-1 odds or higher will wipe out all your losses and deliver your target profit. It’s a slow grind, but it’s designed to keep you in the game long-term. Final Thoughts This staking plan is all about consistency and managing risk. Start with a small bank (like $200), set a point value you’re comfortable with (like 50 or 1), and stick to the rules. You don’t need to be a racing genius—just follow the system, bet smart, and wait for that big win to clear your slate and put profit in your pocket. Got questions or want to tweak this for your own style? Let me know, and I’ll help you fine-tune your approach! Happy betting!
originally posted at https://stacker.news/items/968545