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@ MuaawiyahTucker
2025-05-20 17:35:51
In addition to this
Based on the updated parameters, I'll provide a comprehensive analysis of what the US GDP would be if we excluded economic activity from alcohol, gambling, pornography, military spending, and interest-bearing loan activity.
## Revised GDP Calculation
The total US GDP in 2024-2025 is estimated at approximately $26.9 trillion. When excluding all the specified sectors, the calculation looks like this:
- Alcohol industry contribution: $363.33 billion
- Gambling industry contribution: $328.6 billion
- Pornography industry contribution: $16 billion (midpoint estimate)
- Military spending: $1.25 trillion (combining federal defense consumption expenditures of $997.7 billion and defense gross investment of $252.8 billion)[3]
- Interest-bearing loan activity: This represents a significant portion of economic activity, as loans contribute substantially to US economic growth across various sectors[4][6]
The contribution of interest-bearing loans to economic activity is complex and substantial. Loans to households emerge as particularly important drivers of economic activity, with mortgages and consumer credit playing especially significant roles[4][6]. As of October 2024, the United States government has a monthly interest rate of 3.3 percent on its debt, which reached $34.62 trillion in April 2024[7].
## Impact Assessment
Excluding all interest-bearing loan activity would have a profound impact on GDP, as loans are fundamental to economic activity across virtually all sectors. Based on the available data:
1. Total exclusions from alcohol, gambling, pornography, and military: Approximately $1.96 trillion
2. Interest-bearing loan activity: This is more difficult to quantify precisely, but it represents a substantial portion of the $26.9 trillion economy. Loans to households alone are cited as "the most important driver of economic activity"[6].
3. The federal government's interest payments on debt are significant, with total federal debt and interest payable reaching $26.3 trillion as of September 30, 2023[2].
If we were to exclude all these sectors, the US GDP would likely be reduced by at least 30-40%, potentially bringing it down to approximately $16-19 trillion. This is a conservative estimate given the pervasive role of interest-bearing loans throughout the economy.
## Economic Implications
This adjusted GDP figure represents a theoretical view of the US economy without these specific sectors. The exclusion of interest-bearing loan activity would have cascading effects throughout the economy:
1. Consumer spending would decrease dramatically as most major purchases (homes, vehicles, education) rely on loans
2. Business investment would contract severely as most businesses rely on various forms of credit
3. Government activity would be significantly constrained without the ability to issue interest-bearing debt
4. Employment would decrease across multiple sectors, from financial services to construction and retail
The combined exclusion of alcohol, gambling, pornography, military spending, and interest-bearing loan activity would fundamentally transform the US economy into a much smaller entity operating on primarily cash-based transactions and significantly reduced government services.
Sources
[1] [PDF] US Bank Earnings Pressured by Falling Loan Demand and Net ... https://www.imfconnect.org/content/dam/imf/News%20and%20Generic%20Content/GMM/Special%20Features/Special%20Feature%20-%20US%20Bank%20Earnings%20Monitor%201Q24.pdf
[2] [PDF] Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Report of the United States Government https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2023/02-15-2024-FR-(Final).pdf
[3] Nominal gross domestic product by major demand category https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/nominal-gdp-major-demand-category.htm
[4] [PDF] The Contribution of Loans to Economic Activity. - EconStor https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/226232/1/cesifo1_wp8530.pdf
[5] Explaining Two Measures of Annual U.S. GDP Growth https://www.stlouisfed.
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