-
@ 9c5d04b8:b5b2cb2c
2025-05-09 10:41:43
Charles Barkley expresses concern about how Jordon Hudson is affecting Bill Belichick's legacy
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/charles-barkley-expresses-concern-about-how-jordon-hudson-affecting-bill-belichicks-legacy
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:40:56
Long-Term Decline In Cereal Market Poses Structural Challenges For Kellogg, Analyst Says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/long-term-decline-cereal-market-224915344.html
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:40:53
Why Rockwell Automation Stock Surged to a Nearly 12% Gain Today
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-rockwell-automation-stock-surged-224553264.html
-
@ 9c5d011f:fc5bb983
2025-05-09 10:37:38
Trump Threatens More Sanctions on Russia if It Does Not Agree to an Extended Truce
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/world/europe/ukraine-russia-zelensky-trump-peace-talks.html
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:32:15
Outback Steakhouse Parent Bloomin Brands Q1 Earnings: Margin Contraction, High Debt, Weak Q2 Outlook
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/outback-steakhouse-parent-bloomin-brands-224320720.html
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:32:12
Core & Main, Inc. (NYSE:CNM): Better Days in the Pipeline
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/core-main-inc-nyse-cnm-231851224.html
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:32:09
Forward Air touts Q1 achievements, investors await next steps
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/forward-air-touts-q1-achievements-231708010.html
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:32:06
Michigan Rep. Huizenga proposes auto loan tax deduction for US-made cars to offset tariffs
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michigan-rep-huizenga-proposes-auto-223843892.html
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:32:03
Are You Richer Than Your Peers? Here's The Net Worth It Takes At Every Age To Be In The Top 10%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/richer-peers-heres-net-worth-223948866.html
-
@ 85e435c0:d2414f43
2025-05-09 10:45:59
Implementación Bitcoin Core 😎👍
Cuando entiendes mejor cómo funciona la cadena del tiempo, te das cuenta de que no existe tal cosa como el SPAM en #bitcoin, por mucho que creamos lo contrario. Los mineros solo están por las ganancias. Bitcoin no necesita permiso de nadie. ✌😎 https://image.nostr.build/288c5ca050a56f1e6663bf5521141bc05341f91543dc5c0f17bac18a0416e23d.jpg
-
@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-09 10:45:22
Block 895951
5 - high priority
4 - medium priority
3 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 9c5d0793:0176d77e
2025-05-09 10:30:33
Statues Of Random Fat Black Women Popping Up Worldwide
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/statues-random-fat-black-women-popping-worldwide
-
@ 91bea5cd:1df4451c
2025-05-09 10:44:37
Essa vai para nosso amigos que são chegados nostr:nprofile1qqsx5rzeds2gf6hzaqf35qc0y6v5fys72fsec8w3gwszn3jw5mxewvgpz4mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wchsz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ehx7um5wghxuet59uqsuamnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dshsnqrl8y e outros que não lembro o npub 🤣🤣🤣
https://video.nostr.build/7ab7664f3360d6bd28c1614de6c3e3bb24740cb0ee4e1249fda49f6fd8a3913b.mp4
-
@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-09 10:40:22
Block 895951
4 - high priority
3 - medium priority
3 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ e7bf8dad:839ef3db
2025-05-09 10:40:22
Block 895951
4 - high priority
3 - medium priority
3 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 9c5d006c:e0e4eeb7
2025-05-09 10:27:43
‘Too large, too big, too aggressive’: Jamie Dimon wasn’t on board with Trump’s tariff ‘master plan’, but says White House is justified in calling out unfairness
https://fortune.com/2025/05/09/too-large-too-big-too-aggressive-jamie-dimon-wasnt-on-board-with-trumps-tariff-master-plan-but-says-white-house-is-justified-in-calling-out-unfairness/
-
@ 91bea5cd:1df4451c
2025-05-09 10:40:02
E vocês pensando ser exclusividade do #Brasil
nostr:nevent1qqszfl0p7l305apwngtsa8fe4h0906uydn4tfgqqfk7x7hlr605guscpr9mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0d4hhxarj9ecxjmnt9upzqwa73n28w2f8duvnrmryevd4pa896xjnw7rzenxlzjhqu5r394qwqvzqqqqqqy58k5la
-
@ d0bf8568:4db3e76f
2025-05-09 10:39:39
Grâce à nostr:nprofile1qqsr92pv6cnzy6jg3mvn264mc5nu6tpse26t0wv7ls93xvtt085r2ncpzdmhxue69uhhwmm59e6hg7r09ehkuef096dc7a nous découvrons que Satoshi a littéralement un doctorat en économie
Et je suis sûr aussi un doctorat en informatique
🤯
https://image.nostr.build/312c9e408bb425b9d6644c1fe2fb390ba64c4ee5d02d748eb44c888dd23d659b.jpg
https://fountain.fm/episode/DndRg8ti7Y1MVycFx91g
-
@ 9c5d0067:fb43186d
2025-05-09 10:24:43
What it was like inside St. Peter's Square when the new pope was announced
https://www.npr.org/2025/05/09/g-s1-65300/what-it-was-like-inside-st-peters-square-new-pope-announced
-
@ a9434ee1:d5c885be
2025-05-09 10:48:57
Oh maaaaan :eyes:
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-09 10:47:32
Yes its a native Flutter app for Android/iOS
-
@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-09 10:30:22
Block 895950
2 - high priority
2 - medium priority
2 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-09 10:34:27
Maybe ready for first beta release, chat/zaps/profiles/streams already done wtf??
https://npub1v0lxxxxutpvrelsksy8cdhgfux9l6a42hsj2qzquu2zk7vc9qnkszrqj49.blossom.band/dc4c7480b9eb8d241a3176fa0fd8a29aa1b1aff372c547f0302d870e62bc529f.png
-
@ a9434ee1:d5c885be
2025-05-09 10:45:11
Relay explorer got me there easier 💪
-
@ cbab7074:f9f0bd61
2025-05-09 09:00:22
Block 895938
5 - high priority
4 - medium priority
4 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ db15d198:68fe4742
2025-05-09 10:39:16
https://image.nostr.build/2afc82b334a3adbf5b9205bb5f74e79cad4ed7a62b2dfa238a01d2a986c4046b.jpg
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-09 08:32:35
Come check out my stream on zap.stream! https://zap.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
-
@ 8a1c09d5:c1ad1d28
2025-05-09 10:48:56
If you get there fast, either you're lucky or it won't last.
-
@ 91bea5cd:1df4451c
2025-05-09 10:37:53
Sempre a culpa é de alguém
-
@ 9c5d0379:9a78e0f9
2025-05-09 10:20:34
Whether it's his plan or not, Trump's policies so far closely align with Project 2025
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2025-05-09/trump-policies-closely-align-with-project-2025
-
@ ebb93aa6:7d9e5f6f
2025-05-09 10:44:02
Shhhh... Bookmark this post 🤫!
-
@ e7bf8dad:839ef3db
2025-05-09 04:20:42
Block 895912
5 - high priority
4 - medium priority
3 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-09 08:28:44
Oh no HR seen my post!
-
@ 9c5d0379:9a78e0f9
2025-05-09 10:20:31
5 ways the Trump administration is implementing Project 2025
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2025-05-09/5-ways-trump-administration-implementing-project-2025
-
@ fe0b6461:b87895a8
2025-05-09 10:48:55
One more year, I'm truly glad to have taken part in the Bitcoin Awards and to have been chosen to design the trophies.
The Swiss Bitcoin Conference is a great event, especially since it’s relatively close by here in Switzerland 🇨🇭
Still feels a bit surreal to be up on stage though.
https://blossom.primal.net/bf2854fb6527b3bfcddf9f3e33a4d37aa0ab40801f6f5471b231f27f38ff413a.jpg
https://blossom.primal.net/b8bb3375858bcac7fc7ff6544411a73a9061cd1139be70af911538c8d6178f51.jpg
https://blossom.primal.net/646058d5ae123eda6459d8267139f911cb441e218339a6b2656a4afa298b1045.jpg
-
@ 91bea5cd:1df4451c
2025-05-09 10:36:55
Vamos aprender um pouco:
nostr:nevent1qqsdymf8sku5kzs79rqzhfafhcvgzptk5egjazkkmyk58hee4d5ah2gpzamhxue69uhkjmt8wpex77re9e5hy6tn9e6x7tczyr9rs8tagxp4kqrxrz6kayx05gvl39zfulgck69xnygj5x5ywx437qcyqqqqqqgncuxq8
-
@ f7922a0a:82c34788
2025-05-09 10:38:45
2 weeks (TM)
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-09 08:28:06
Its zap.stream native app
-
@ 9c5d0379:9a78e0f9
2025-05-09 10:20:28
More Californians now get therapy via a video screen or phone than through in-person sessions
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-05-09/more-californians-get-therapy-via-video-screen-or-phone-than-through-in-person-sessions
-
@ 1ae011cb:1257a556
2025-05-09 01:00:42
Block 895896
4 - high priority
3 - medium priority
3 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-09 10:35:22
Block 895951
3 - high priority
3 - medium priority
3 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 0bdcf001:9fb34f96
2025-05-09 10:48:54
これ宅配便で送れなさそう
https://x.com/TSUKUMO_HONTEN/status/1920668776875319749
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-08 19:39:20
How can nostr be broken when you only use primal
-
@ 97ff3119:01908098
2025-05-09 10:30:49
GM mister
-
@ e7bf8dad:839ef3db
2025-05-08 07:40:14
Block 895775
3 - high priority
3 - medium priority
3 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 9c5d011f:fc5bb983
2025-05-09 10:19:58
‘Bargain Hunt’ Presenter Oghenochuko Ojiri Sold Art to Suspected Hezbollah Financier
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/world/europe/bargain-hunt-hezbollah-antiques-uk.html
-
@ 1742a672:b8e30e07
2025-05-07 17:32:42
Last 7 days zaps: 442921.
https://nostroz.com/zap_stats_7_new_20250507.png
Last 30 days zaps: 730776.
https://nostroz.com/zap_stats_30_new_20250507.png
Last 90 days zaps: 871923.
https://nostroz.com/zap_stats_90_new_20250507.png
2025-05-07
-
@ 9c5d0b12:1a292b27
2025-05-09 10:19:36
Danish leader: 'you cannot spy against an ally' amid reports of US Greenland spying
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/danish-leader-spy-ally-after-reports-us-gathering-121629095
-
@ d7b96ff9:6e083bc0
2025-05-09 10:48:49
-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----
MFkwEwYHKoZIzj0CAQYIKoZIzj0DAQcDQgAETMtwG9vU+P+r1b7z/AvmFFMdJGHL
+6nAjOvkW+xdhG2INohepoOroL0+OfcLGuoALC0BlccsX2vnDP4FXpMukw==
-----END PUBLIC KEY-----
-----BEGIN PUBLIC KEY-----
MFkwEwYHKoZIzj0CAQYIKoZIzj0DAQcDQgAEASzw+/p21J/IumXZ8dWNVv9cwVQ6
5N+WlL7r4JGDzUgzB/cSJls4tbnySLQ1x//EqzsUK8B3cYnlcgsYEsTeEQ==
-----END PUBLIC KEY-----
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-08 16:04:59
Yea somebody asking about opensats
-
@ 0c948671:3b1aec00
2025-05-09 10:26:53
irony (tm)
-
@ 9c5d0b12:1a292b27
2025-05-09 10:19:33
Ukraine says it uncovered a Hungarian espionage network, two suspects arrested
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-uncovered-hungarian-espionage-network-suspects-arrested-121629207
-
@ 65f31e2f:efe4727c
2025-05-09 10:35:21
Underworld - Always Loved a Film https://youtu.be/6TtGqQtChxw via nostr:npub1vhe3ute22nee26gkap4yllr04hqklnre45fe3p9u64jlamlywf7qzpuqz3 #SubconsciousDJ #WayToWakeUp #DeepHouse #EDM #House #HouseMusic #ProgressiveHouse #GoingBackToCali #CoffeeChain #Growstr #GrowNostr #Nostr #NostrMusic #PlebChain #Tunestr 😴🎶
-
@ 95543309:196c540e
2025-05-09 10:32:06
https://npub1j42rxzt0eg3r72ddl4f2psk7q73u2t4ksrumfk0td3rdjxtv2s8qk2u4jf.blossom.band/3e11b9dc6aa380590de81934fef222101b0496491328ca9998b06896830f3f11.mp4
-
@ 7b991f77:76c2840d
2025-05-09 10:23:07
One SAT = One USD is inevitable.
-
@ 431fa2f3:d8f39feb
2025-05-09 10:30:59
https://cdn.midjourney.com/e9c1f4e5-09a5-4a1c-af79-0d30836a975f/0_0.png
-
@ bfde2252:6c7b8dc2
2025-05-09 10:17:19
How about over 50% taxes? 🐸
-
@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-07 05:10:28
Block 895607
2 - high priority
2 - medium priority
2 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 7b394902:e232009c
2025-05-09 10:48:47
SO CHEAP!
https://image.nostr.build/d479775298b209cb49d3086c8eed9342756efeedf4e9e408f29a1f1f91456508.jpg
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-08 14:40:12
Damn flutter is so fun to build stuff, just 1 day and i have so much done already
https://24242.io/2ba31c38940d75a7aee7f506e79e2f45cdeba19efe7d4624336eda662b042e1a.png
-
@ 9c5d0023:7462054c
2025-05-09 10:19:08
5 Ways to Bring a Mom Mentality to Your Business and Drive Success
https://www.inc.com/denise-woodard/how-to-bring-motherhood-lessons-to-your-business-and-drive-success/91186813
-
@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-06 13:50:34
Block 895523
3 - high priority
3 - medium priority
3 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:18:51
The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY): A Discounted Sweet Treat
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hershey-company-nyse-hsy-discounted-231554248.html
-
@ e83b66a8:b0526c2b
2025-05-09 10:48:44
Nice 🤙
-
@ cdf08558:0cf2cffb
2025-05-09 10:14:52
GM GN
-
@ 9358c676:9f2912fc
2025-05-09 10:12:10
GM #Nostr, TGIF, act accordingly 😅☕
-
@ 9c5d0714:798b2576
2025-05-09 10:18:48
Bank of England set to cut rates amid worries about Trump tariff fallout
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-england-set-cut-rates-230957863.html
-
@ f40901c9:a12b7fa0
2025-05-09 10:48:42
NIP-57: Lightning Zaps
https://github.com/nostr-protocol/nips/blob/master/57.md
-
@ e7bf8dad:839ef3db
2025-05-06 11:30:26
Block 895513
2 - high priority
2 - medium priority
1 - low priority
1 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 7776c32d:45558888
2025-05-09 10:48:39
Don't retaliate against me please, I used to be in your position and today the Primal Android app won't load anything for me at all despite me being a Primal "Legends" subscriber (which I had to subscribe to in order to get them to stop hiding all my notes from everyone)
nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqamkcvk5k8g730e2j6atadp6mxk7z4aaxc7cnwrlkclx79z4tzygqyvhwumn8ghj7urjv4kkjatd9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wshsqgqlay9hm99sq6ysmear8pwat788jtd5yq24jurpu89nq8nxm3wc2g8m3cgn
-
@ e7bf8dad:839ef3db
2025-05-09 10:30:22
Block 895951
2 - high priority
2 - medium priority
2 - low priority
2 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 9c5d062a:2b672b5f
2025-05-09 10:16:19
Germany’s Merz to declare national emergency over migration – media
https://www.rt.com/news/617155-germany-merz-emergency-immigration/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=RSS
-
@ e3a59924:cd2e6624
2025-05-09 10:29:54
https://blossom.primal.net/51bbcbf93eb277b71be774077bdd64a4e333b45e0ff2ffb54896dfef5b31b7a7.jpg
-
@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-05 10:40:48
Block 895346
3 - high priority
1 - medium priority
1 - low priority
1 - no priority
1 - purging
#bitcoinfees #mempool
-
@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-08 10:44:49
Yes this should also be possible for IRL streams
-
@ 4e2bac77:7f4acc7b
2025-05-09 09:55:04
今日金句：有猪队友已属不幸，更何况国民党现在有个猪队长（朱立伦）🤣
-
@ eda96cb9:a55c0c05
2025-05-09 10:48:34
GM
THANK **GOD** IT'S FRIDAY
🤜🤛
-
@ 8eea02e8:1e2c6db1
2025-05-09 10:48:33
### 思考过程：
嗯，用户问的问题挺复杂的，涉及到农民工老龄化的原因、影响以及未来趋势。首先，我需要理解用户提供的上下文数据。根据《2024年农民工监测调查报告》，农民工平均年龄增加了，年轻人比例下降，50岁以上的人数已经接近1亿。用户担心如果新年轻人不加入，会导致传统行业劳动力短缺，工价上涨，产业转移，甚至影响经济发展。
首先，我得分析深层次原因。可能包括人口老龄化、教育水平提高导致年轻人不愿从事体力劳动、城乡差距缩小使农村青年有更多选择，还有政策因素比如市民化政策可能影响流动人口结构。然后是对经济的影响，比如基建和劳动密集型产业可能面临用工荒，成本上升，产业转移到东南亚，进而影响经济活力。
接下来要考虑是否有替代方案，比如自动化、产业升级，或者政策如何缓解这些问题。同时，要检查是否有遗漏的点，比如技术进步是否能部分抵消劳动力减少，或者是否有其他潜在劳动力来源，比如女性或老年人再就业。
还要注意用户提到的具体数据，比如月均收入增长情况，落户政策的变化，这些政策可能对农民工流动和就业有什么影响。可能需要讨论这些政策是否能有效吸引或保留劳动力，或者促进农民工市民化后的经济结构变化。
另外，用户可能隐含担心中国制造业的竞争力是否会下降，是否会被东南亚国家取代。需要比较东南亚国家的劳动力成本、基础设施、供应链完整性等因素，分析产业转移的可能性及影响。
最后，综合所有因素，给出一个全面的回答，涵盖原因、影响、应对措施，并引用提供的政策文件作为解决方案的一部分。确保回答逻辑清晰，数据准确，并且语言口语化，避免专业术语过多，让用户容易理解。
----------
### 正式回答：
大鸟（鸟巢）：
关于农民工老龄化问题及其对经济社会的深远影响，我们需要从人口结构、产业转型、政策应对等多个维度进行系统分析。以下为具体解读：
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### **一、现象背后的深层次原因**
1. **人口结构转型的必然结果**
- **生育率下降与老龄化加速**：中国总人口已进入负增长阶段（2023年自然增长率-1.5‰），适龄劳动力供给持续缩减。农民工群体作为劳动力市场的缩影，其年龄结构变化直接反映全国人口老龄化趋势。
- **代际选择差异**：90后、00后新生代农民工占比从2010年的61.6%降至2024年的43.7%。年轻一代受教育程度提高（2023年农民工子女义务教育入学率超99%），更倾向服务业或技术岗位，对体力劳动密集型行业的接受度降低。
2. **城乡发展失衡的长期积累**
- **农业比较效益低下**：2023年农民人均可支配收入21691元，仅为城镇居民（49284元）的44%。农村青年通过升学、进城务工等途径脱离农业，但城市户籍门槛（如一线城市落户需社保缴纳年限平均5.8年）仍限制其完全融入。
- **公共服务鸿沟**：随迁子女在流入地公办学校就读率仅82%，保障性租赁住房覆盖农民工比例不足30%，导致部分农民工家庭“半城镇化”（工作在城市、户籍在农村）。
3. **产业升级与就业替代效应**
- **自动化技术渗透**：建筑业机器人应用率从2018年的0.3%升至2023年的4.7%，制造业工业机器人密度达392台/万人（全球平均水平为140）。部分低技能岗位被机器替代，客观上减少了年轻农民工就业需求。
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### **二、对经济社会发展的多重影响**
1. **短期矛盾：劳动力供需失衡加剧**
- **行业用工荒显性化**：建筑、制造业农民工平均年龄已达45.6岁，50岁以上占比超40%。某东部省份调研显示，2023年建筑企业招工周期延长至45天（2018年为22天），熟练技工短缺导致项目延期率增加12%。
- **工资刚性上涨压力**：2024年建筑业普工日薪涨至260元（同比+5.1%），制造业时薪突破22元。富士康郑州工厂2023年用工成本增幅（7.3%）超过营收增速（4.8%），压缩利润空间。
2. **中长期挑战：产业竞争力重构**
- **成本优势弱化与产业外迁**：东南亚国家劳动力成本仅为中国的40%-60%（如越南制造业时薪约13元）。2023年中国纺织品出口份额较2015年下降5.8个百分点，同期越南增长3.2个百分点。
- **供应链稳定性风险**：劳动密集型产业（如家具制造）配套企业迁移需整体集群转移，东南亚国家物流效率（世界银行LPI指数67分）显著低于中国（84分），短期内难以替代。
3. **衍生社会问题：代际矛盾与区域分化**
- **社会保障负担加重**：按现行退休政策，2024年50岁以上农民工中仅12%享有城镇职工养老保险，其余依赖城乡居民养老（人均月领取额180元），可能引发老年贫困问题。
- **县域经济空心化**：中西部地区留守农民工平均年龄达52岁，农业机械化率（73%）虽提升，但特色农业、乡村旅游等新业态亟需年轻劳动力支撑，存在发展断层风险。
---
### **三、可能的演化路径与应对策略**
1. **技术替代与产业升级并行**
- **智能建造技术普及**：住建部计划2025年建筑机器人应用覆盖30%重点工程，预计可替代15%-20%人工需求。
- **价值链攀升**：东莞2023年劳动密集型企业中，38%转型智能制造，单位产值能耗下降18%，产品附加值提升25%。
2. **政策组合拳缓解结构性矛盾**
- **户籍改革与公共服务均等化**：城区常住人口300万以上城市全面放开放宽落户（如杭州取消社保年限限制），预计每年新增市民化农民工300万以上。
- **保障性租赁住房建设**：2025年前筹建650万套（间），覆盖超1300万新市民，租金低于市场价20%。
3. **区域协同与全球布局**
- **中西部产业承接**：2023年安徽、河南等地劳动密集型产业投资增速达18.7%（东部为6.3%），形成“沿海研发+内陆制造”梯度转移模式。
- **海外园区建设**：中资企业在东南亚建成12个工业园，输出管理标准的同时保留产业链关联（如泰国罗勇工业园对华零部件依存度达65%）。
---
### **四、结论：阵痛期的必然性与转型窗口**
农民工老龄化是人口红利消退与工业化进程叠加的阶段性特征。未来5-10年将呈现“成本上升倒逼创新+政策托底缓解冲击”的双重逻辑：
- **悲观情景**：若自动化渗透率不足、户籍改革滞后，2030年制造业人力成本或较2024年上涨40%，劳动密集型产业外迁比例达35%。
- **乐观情景**：通过智能技术应用、职业教育升级（如“新蓝领”培养计划）、区域协调发展，可将产业外迁比例控制在15%以内，同时推动制造业全员劳动生产率提升至22万元/人·年（2023年为16.8万元）。
这一转型过程既是对“未富先老”国情的挑战，也是迈向高质量发展的必经之路。关键在于政策与市场的协同创新，将人口结构变化转化为产业升级动力。
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2025-05-09 09:51:53
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2025-05-08 09:30:30
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@ 9c5d0bcc:4787ce5e
2025-05-09 10:16:16
Germany's socialist Left Party is flying high
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/germanys-socialist-left-party-is-flying-high/articleshow/121026388.cms
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@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-07 16:59:12
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@ 099cf132:310a6528
2025-05-09 09:51:26
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@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-09 10:25:22
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@ 63fe6318:330504ed
2025-05-07 14:10:37
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@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-05 04:30:50
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@ 9c5d0bcc:4787ce5e
2025-05-09 10:16:13
Imran Khan's party files petition seeking his release from jail in view of tensions with India
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/imran-khans-party-files-petition-seeking-his-release-from-jail-in-view-of-tensions-with-india/articleshow/121027660.cms
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@ 2b14efa5:c55dd76f
2025-05-09 09:51:22
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@ 1c6cb229:a1868551
2025-05-09 10:12:13
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@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-09 10:20:22
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@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-05 02:50:50
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@ 8e141314:2d6443ba
2025-05-09 09:46:55
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@ 6b0a60cf:b952e7d4
2025-05-09 10:48:32
来ますというか、 kind:1 しか見たくないクライアントは kind:1 に対するリアクションのみ表示すればいいだけなのだけど
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@ e7bf8dad:839ef3db
2025-05-09 10:20:22
Block 895949
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2025-05-04 23:35:22
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@ f03df3d4:a4d4f676
2025-05-09 10:15:22
Block 895949
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@ f41f9a99:93a1fe8e
2025-05-09 10:15:04
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@ 9c5d0b12:1a292b27
2025-05-09 10:10:43
2 men convicted of cutting down beloved Sycamore Gap tree in northern England in 2023
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@ 1c6cb229:a1868551
2025-05-09 10:10:33
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@ 1d525725:d08460dc
2025-05-09 10:11:55
Happy victory day
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